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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Jays, Nats, Rays, Twins, Royals, D-backs, Bucs

By Connor Byrne | March 18, 2017 at 12:05pm CDT

This week in baseball blogs:

BP Toronto explains that third baseman Josh Donaldson isn’t the only member of the Blue Jays who’s buying into the fly ball revolution.
District On Deck compares Nationals right fielder Adam Eaton’s contract to Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier’s new extension.
Twins Daily wants Minnesota to take an aggressive approach in free agency next winter.
Chin Music Baseball assesses Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer.
Inside the ’Zona breaks down Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker’s mechanical adjustments.
The Point of Pittsburgh opines that the Pirates should have right-hander Tyler Glasnow begin the season at the Triple-A level.
Clutchlings writes that Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro is assembling “a top-flight organization.”
Call To The Pen ranks the top 30 catchers in the majors.
Rotisserie Duck wonders what the Baseball Hall of Fame will look like in 2025.
Camden Depot uses the new Catch Probability stat to see the Orioles’ outfielders measure up.
Pirates Breakdown has high hopes for Bucs utilityman Adam Frazier.
Jays Journal offers some bold predictions for Toronto’s 2017.
The 3rd Man In forecasts the top 10 picks of this year’s draft.
Think Blue Planning Committee compares the Dodgers’ starting pitching depth to six other contenders’.
The Runner Sports looks at the mini-feud between Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and the Rangers.
Notes From the Sally previews the Rome Braves, who are Atlanta’s South Atlantic League affiliates.
Everything Bluebirds suggests that defense-first center fielder Kevin Pillar is capable of providing more offense.
Legends on Deck interviews Dodgers right-handed prospect Andrew Istler.
Call To The Pen focuses on the Phillies’ camp battles, while The Runner Sports does the same with the Yankees’.
Jays From the Couch is pleased that Toronto is exercising patience with its prospects.
Underthought uses the Play Index on Baseball-Reference.com to find some under-the-radar streaks.
Mets Daddy and Real McCoy Minor News share World Baseball Classic-themed pieces centering on Team USA.
South of the 6ix names potential leadoff options for the Blue Jays if second baseman Devon Travis doesn’t return by Opening Day.
Sports Talk Philly believes the Phillies should retire the numbers of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins.

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

NL Notes: Cardinals, Giants, Braves, Rockies

By Connor Byrne | March 18, 2017 at 10:40am CDT

Right-hander Luke Weaver entered spring training with a chance to win the last spot in the Cardinals’ rotation, but that bid officially ended when they optioned him to Triple-A on Saturday. Weaver dealt with back spasms earlier this month and performed poorly when on the mound. In five spring innings, the 23-year-old allowed seven earned runs on seven hits and eight walks, and struck out only one hitter. Michael Wacha has fared much better, meanwhile, and taken hold of the No. 5 role as a result, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It seems Trevor Rosenthal will begin the year in the bullpen, then, though the Cards aren’t yet sure how they’ll use him. Both a long relief role and a “hybrid high-leverage job” are on the table for the former closer, per Goold.

More on St. Louis and three other National League clubs:

After sitting out nearly all of last season and then settling for a minor league contract with the Giants in December, Michael Morse could be hitting his way to a job as a bench player with the team. Regarding Morse, who has slashed .308/.400/.615 in 26 spring at-bats, manager Bruce Bochy said Friday (via Chris Haft of MLB.com), “If the bat plays, you find a place for him.” Morse had only lined up at first base this spring until he manned left field Friday, leading Bochy to note that “he needs more time out there.” It’s possible the right-handed Morse will end up platooning with lefty-swinging left fielder Jarrett Parker, writes Haft. The 34-year-old Morse realizes he’s not exactly an ideal fit for the outfield, though. “It was fun. It was like riding a bike … with two flat tires,” he quipped after playing left Friday (Twitter link via Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area).
Although the Cardinals’ Matt Adams has only seen action at first base since debuting in 2012, the club will give him some left field work on the back fields of its minor league complex Saturday, tweets Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. St. Louis is “curious” to see how Adams will look in the outfield, adds Langosch. With Matt Carpenter taking over at first, Adams doesn’t appear likely to receive much playing time at his typical position this season. The fact that Adams slimmed down over the winter could help make him an outfield candidate, though the Redbirds already have everyday-caliber corner options in Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk.
There’s “nothing happening” right now between the Braves and free agent outfielder Angel Pagan, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). The Braves have reportedly made “multiple” attempts to sign Pagan, who’s among the best free agents still on the board, though he’s holding out for a higher offer.
Rockies left fielder David Dahl is making progress in his recovery from a ribcage injury and could “increase activity” soon, manager Bud Black told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). Dahl was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his sixth rib 12 days ago, and the Rockies said at the time they’d re-evaluate him in two weeks. The highly promising 22-year-old has only taken four at-bats this spring.

East Notes: Blue Jays, Mets, Marlins, Yankees

By Connor Byrne | March 18, 2017 at 8:57am CDT

Agent Scott Boras is unhappy with the Blue Jays for not awarding pre-arb right-hander Aaron Sanchez a higher salary for 2017, but the star hurler doesn’t seem fazed. Sanchez told Paul Hagen of MLB.com he “absolutely” believes Blue Jays management values him, adding: “We just had a disagreement, and I want to leave it at that. There are no hard feelings between [general manager Ross Atkins] and I, between me and this organization. It’s time to go play baseball, really. All that other stuff isn’t relevant to me.” With his first trip through arbitration a year away, Sanchez, 24, will try to build on a sterling 2016 campaign in which he posted a 3.00 ERA, 7.55 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and 54.4 percent ground-ball rate over 192 innings.

Central Notes: Tigers, Cabrera, Carrasco, Brantley, Broxton, Brewers, Twins

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 10:43pm CDT

The Tigers are continuing to scan the market for center field upgrades, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Detroit has been looking around for more options throughout camp, though perhaps the time isn’t quite ripe to make a move with other organizations holding onto their depth until their own situations are resolved. Rosenthal notes that JaCoby Jones has shown most impressively thus far among the in-house competitors with a .346/.393/.615 batting line. Alex Presley has also hit well this spring, though he has spent most of his time in the majors in a corner spot, while fellow competitors Tyler Collins and Mikie Mahtook have each struggled at the plate in game action.

Here’s more from the central divisions:

Miguel Cabrera left yesterday’s WBC action with back tightness, but Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said he’s not concerned with his star’s health, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports. Team Venezuela skipper Omar Vizquel, who’s also a member of the Detroit coaching staff, notified Ausmus that it’s nothing more than a minor issue.
The Indians received positive health updates on two critical players, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports. Carlos Carrasco is ready to begin throwing again, with the organization expressing optimism that his elbow soreness was little more than a blip. Meanwhile, outfielder Michael Brantley “feels good” after a five-inning appearance on the minor-league side of camp. His shoulder health remains a major variable for the defending American League champs.
The Brewers pulled center fielder Keon Broxton from the team’s game today after he experienced soreness in his surgically repaired wrist, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports (Twitter links). Fortunately, though, it’s just a minor bone chip that’s said not to represent a significant concern. Broxton impressed in his limited time in the bigs last year and is hitting a scorching .395/.489/.737 in 14 games this spring, so the club is undoubtedly relieved that it can still look forward to a full season from the 26-year-old.
Of course, the Brewers are also hoping that another wave of young outfielders will push Broxton and others before long. The organization plans to field a Triple-A outfield of Lewis Brinson, Ryan Cordell, and Brett Phillips, Haudricourt further writes. That’s at least somewhat surprising in the case of Phillips, Haudricourt notes, given his rough 2016 campaign at Double-A.
Twins GM Thad Levine spoke with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about a variety of topics in his first spring with his new organization. He says the Twins are hoping to avoid the lengthy rebuilding processes that some other organizations have pursued in recent years, citing the “wealth of young talent” the club will field at the major league level. The 103-loss 2016 campaign was something of an anomaly, he suggests, given the talent level. While the hyped Minnesota position players are well known, Levine also suggests there’s some cause for optimism in the pitching staff. He suggests there’s “some burgeoning pitching talent” on hand and also notes that he expects better health — and results — from Phil Hughes and others. There’s plenty more to digest from the interview for the Twins’ faithful.

Jordan Schafer To Undergo Elbow Surgery

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | March 17, 2017 at 9:21pm CDT

FRIDAY: Fortunately, Schafer was able to receive the repair procedure rather than requiring a full ligament replacement, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports. That leaves him with an approximately seven-month rehab timeline. While he won’t be able to pitch this season regardless, Schafer will have much more time to show he’s back to health before seeking his next opportunity.

TUESDAY: Cardinals left-hander Jordan Schafer, who is in his second season of pitching after opening his career as an outfielder, is headed for elbow surgery, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. It’s not yet clear whether he’ll need Tommy John surgery or the less-invasive “primary repair” procedure (the same operation that former Cardinals righty Seth Maness underwent last August), though either operation would end Schafer’s season.

An MRI taken this weak revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in Schafer’s left elbow, per Goold, and Dr. George Paletta will determine upon cutting into Schafer’s arm which operation he will receive. (As Goold explained in reporting on the primary repair operation earlier this winter, candidates cannot yet be identified until the procedure is underway, as it’s largely dependent on the extent of and location of the tear.)

The 30-year-old Schafer had been attempting to make the Cardinals’ roster as an outfielder/reliever and had pitched 3 2/3 innings this spring in addition to making seven plate appearances. As Goold notes, Schafer making the team was contingent on how well hit pitched. Schafer felt something in his forearm in each of his final two pitching appearances this spring but attempted to pitch through the discomfort in hopes of making the Cardinals’ roster.

Once a well-regarded outfield prospect in the Braves organization, Schafer is a .228/.308/.307 hitter through 1472 plate appearances between Atlanta, Houston and Minnesota. Though he hasn’t hit much in the Majors, Schafer offers well-above-average speed and can play anywhere in the outfield, so adding relief work to his resume would’ve made him an interesting and uniquely versatile reserve piece for the Cards. In 49 1/3 minor league innings with the Dodgers last season, Schafer pitched to a 3.83 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. Opposing lefties batted just .189/.267/.396 against him in 61 plate appearances.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

By charliewilmoth | March 17, 2017 at 8:47pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Cardinals added two top free agents this offseason and said goodbye to some longtime contributors as they tinkered with the core that won them 86 games in 2016.

Major League Signings

OF Dexter Fowler: five years, $82.5MM
LHP Brett Cecil: four years, $30.5MM
Total spend: $113MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Jose Adolis Garcia, Eric Fryer

Trades And Claims

Acquired RHP Chris Ellis, RHP John Gant and 2B Luke Dykstra from Braves for LHP Jaime Garcia
Lost OF Jeremy Hazelbaker on waivers to Diamondbacks
Lost LHP Tim Cooney on waivers to Indians

Extensions

RHP Carlos Martinez: five years, $51MM (includes club options for 2022 and 2023)

Notable Losses

Brandon Moss, Matt Holliday, Garcia, Seth Maness, Brayan Pena

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals ended the 2016 season by parting ways with a longtime star, giving the aging Matt Holliday a $1M buyout rather than exercising a $17MM option. Though he hits capably, the 37-year-old Holliday no longer provided enough offense to offset his salary and health and defensive issues. He headed to the Yankees, who can use him as a DH. The Cardinals also saw the departure of another veteran slugger, Brandon Moss, who didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the club before he ultimately landed with the Royals.

The Cardinals thus set about adding another outfielder who could bump 2016 center fielder Randal Grichuk to a corner. They were linked to a number of high-profile names, including Adam Eaton, Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond, before ultimately signing Dexter Fowler to a five-year, $82.5MM deal.

The Cardinals’ seemingly singular focus on finding a center fielder rather than a corner outfielder initially seemed odd, since advanced stats actually identified Grichuk as a better defensive center fielder than Fowler and several of the other rumored options. UZR pegs Grichuk as being a few runs above average in about 1,200 career innings in center field, and Defensive Runs Saved is even more bullish, rating Grichuk as 14 runs above average. Both stats rate Fowler as a hair above average last year, but below average (sometimes significantly so) in the five seasons before that. Fowler will also be 31 later this month, and though his athleticism makes him likely to age relatively gracefully, his defense seems unlikely to improve as he ages and slows. The Cards reached agreement with Fowler during the Winter Meetings — relatively early in the offseason, and significantly before most of the other outfield bats signed. They also paid almost $20MM more for him than MLBTR projected he’d receive. One wonders whether they might have gotten better value had they kept Grichuk in center and signed one of the many cheaply available sluggers to join him and Stephen Piscotty in their outfield.

There was also another cost to signing Fowler, in that the Cardinals forfeited their top 2017 draft pick, No. 19 overall, to complete the signing. That loss will hurt, particularly since the team also lost its next two picks (Nos. 56 and 75) as part of its penalty for its role in the Astros hacking scandal.

Perhaps that’s overthinking it, however. The only free agent outfielder who compared favorably to Fowler in overall value was Yoenis Cespedes, who was already off the market by the time the Cards landed their man. Unlike some of the defensively challenged sluggers who languished on the free agent market, Fowler’s well-rounded game insures him somewhat against decline. At least in the short term, he should upgrade the Cardinals’ offense with his on-base ability and their defense by virtue of being significantly better than players like Holliday or Moss. And, of course, in signing Fowler, the Cardinals lured a talented player away from the rival Cubs, who replaced him with the much less costly Jon Jay.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The Cardinals also acted quickly to fill a bullpen spot that opened when lefty Zach Duke had an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery in October. Another lefty, Tyler Lyons, was set to begin 2017 on the DL after having knee surgery as well. To replace them, the Cards signed Brett Cecil to a four-year deal worth $30.5MM, making a notable commitment to a reliever who isn’t a closer and doesn’t have a track record of dominance, at least not at first glance. (They also gave Cecil a full no-trade clause.) Cecil’s modest 3.93 ERA last season, though, was propelled by a 1.47 HR/9 that’s likely to return to more normal levels in 2017, and his other underlying numbers (11.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) are more consistent with the ERAs he posted in 2014 and 2015, which were well under three.

The offseason was also kind to left-handed relievers as a group, with non-stars like Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepcyznski also faring quite well. Of course, Cecil is not a generic lefty (he allowed a .799 OPS against righties in 2016 but dominated them the two previous seasons), so there wasn’t a clear comparable for him on the market. In the end, his $30.5MM deal ranked fourth among this winter’s relief-pitcher contracts, behind only Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Cecil’s addition gives the Cardinals a second good lefty to join Kevin Siegrist. He should bolster a bullpen that, thanks in part to injuries to Duke, Lyons and the now-departed Seth Maness, suddenly looked somewhat thin. Cecil will pitch in the late innings, with the terrific Seung Hwan Oh occupying the closer’s role and Jonathan Broxton, Matthew Bowman and wild card Trevor Rosenthal filling in the gaps. (The Cardinals planned to experiment with the idea of having Rosenthal start, but those plans were likely dashed after a spring injury; he now could occupy a multiple-inning relief role.) Newcomer John Gant could be a factor as well, along with Sam Tuivailala and Miguel Socolovich.

The Cardinals also extended 25-year-old righty Carlos Martinez through 2021, with club options for 2022 and 2023. The $51MM deal buys out two of what would have been Martinez’s free agent seasons and gives the Cardinals the chance to control his rights through his age-31 campaign. Martinez would have been eligible for arbitration for the first time this past winter. It’s hard to find comparable recent extensions for starting pitchers, mostly because teams have been reluctant in recent seasons to commit to starting pitchers for five-year periods when they have the option of taking them year to year. Martinez himself has had brief bits of shoulder trouble in both the minors and the Majors, and no starting pitcher is wholly exempt from injury concerns — as fellow Cardinal Lance Lynn, who received a three-year deal a season before missing the 2016 campaign to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, can probably attest. That written, Martinez seems worth the risk. He possesses elite velocity and ground-ball ability, and he ramped up to a career-high 195 1/3 frames in 2016. Acquiring the right to control his age-28 through age-31 seasons offers the Cardinals enormous upside.

Questions Remaining

The Cardinals possess what would appear to be good, consistent players throughout their roster, but their collection of aging veterans and young players looks to be a bit short on star talent. Yadier Molina is now 34, and the days of his five-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 appear to be behind him. Matt Carpenter is coming off an outstanding 2016 season, but the relative impact of his bat should be limited somewhat by the Cardinals’ decision to play him at first base, a move the team made in November to improve the team’s infield defense and clear the way for players at other infield positions. Fowler is fresh off a career-best season and could regress. Jhonny Peralta will be 35 in May and didn’t perform after returning from a wrist injury in 2016. Younger players like Piscotty and Grichuk profile more as very good players than stars. The offense’s best shot at a star-caliber performance might belong to shortstop Aledmys Diaz, and despite his outstanding 2016 rookie season, that seems like an iffy proposition given the (understandable) uncertainties in the Cuban defector’s track record.

In the rotation, Martinez seems like as good a bet as anyone on the roster to function as a true top-level starter. Behind him, the Cardinals will again lean on Adam Wainwright, who’s now 35. He turned in a fine but uninspiring 2016 season after missing much of 2015 due to a ruptured Achilles. Mike Leake’s first season in St. Louis did little to change his profile as a mid-rotation pitcher, although he did post a career-best 1.5 BB/9. Lynn is a question mark after missing all of last season, even though he was quietly terrific in four straight seasons before that. Michael Wacha seems a reasonable bet to rebound after struggling in 2016, but his shoulder health remains a concern. And the team might sorely miss top prospect Alex Reyes, who will be sidelined for the entire 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery last month. Luke Weaver, Gant and others give the Cardinals solid depth, but their rotation still perhaps appears a bit vulnerable behind Martinez.

The questioning tone of the previous two paragraphs may give too negative an impression — the Cardinals have plenty of talent, and much of their success in recent years has been due to surprisingly strong performances by players who didn’t look like impact types before they started posting big numbers. Jedd Gyorko’s 30-homer showing last season after two straight bad years with the Padres is but one example. The Cardinals organization has earned way too much credit to be dismissed. It’s notable, though, the degree to which the Cards are leaning on good players rather than great ones, especially as many of their key assets age.

Speaking of Gyorko, the Cardinals also still must decide how to divvy up playing time in their infield. Despite Gyorko’s strong performance last season, Kolten Wong appears to have the inside track on the second base job, with the Cardinals understandably still interested in the potential for his package of defensive and baserunning tools to add up to something more. Diaz and Peralta currently slot at shortstop and third, respectively, leaving Gyorko without a regular position. Between Wong’s inconsistency and Peralta’s age, though, Gyorko will likely find plenty of playing time. Peralta in particular is coming off a poor season, and it’s easy to imagine Gyorko taking over the starting role at third if Peralta doesn’t bounce back. Gyorko could also occasionally give Carpenter a rest against tough lefties. Greg Garcia, who quietly had a terrific year in 2016, will be a factor at the leftmost three infield positions as well.

Finally, while Molina will obviously handle the bulk of the Cardinals’ catching duties in 2017 (health permitting), the team faces the possibility of a big change at the catcher position in the near future. Molina’s contract contains a mutual option for 2018, but he could be nearing the end of his time in St. Louis, and the team is excited about Carson Kelly, who played in the high minors last season. Molina and the Cardinals are still toying with the possibility of an extension, but the Cards will likely be wary of a big commitment to a 34-year-old catcher, even one as crucial to the team’s recent success as Molina has been. Kelly’s development could also be a factor.

Deal Of Note

In early December, the Cardinals traded lefty Jaime Garcia to the Braves, receiving righties Gant and Chris Ellis, along with infielder Luke Dykstra. It’s a move the Cardinals might not mind having back, thanks to Reyes’ injury. At the time, though, they were looking at what appeared to be a rotation surplus, and Garcia, who had a $12MM option for 2017 before hitting free agency, seemed like the best candidate to depart.

Gant isn’t the pitcher Garcia is, but he’s optionable and controllable, giving the Cardinals a useful bit of flexibility even if he never improves much on his surprisingly interesting 2016 rookie season, in which he posted a robust 8.8 K/9 over 50 innings (albeit with a 4.86 ERA and 3.8 BB/9). He could also become a bullpen asset at some point. Ellis adds a bit of upside to the deal — he walked 5.4 batters per nine innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year but still has an outside shot at a MLB career if he can improve his command. If he does, a future in the bullpen is a possibility. Dykstra looks like a fringe prospect after struggling somewhat in 2016, but he only turned 21 in November and could still emerge as a potentially useful second baseman.

Overview

The Cardinals should remain tough in 2017, although they increasingly look like a team in transition. They will, and should, try to make the playoffs this season, but it will also be interesting to see how younger players like Diaz, Wong, Grichuk, Piscotty, Kelly, Martinez and Weaver develop.

What’s your take on the Cardinals’ winter? (link to poll for mobile app users …)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

John Mozeliak Discusses Yadier Molina Contract Situation

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 7:17pm CDT

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak addressed the contract situation of long-time catcher Yadier Molina with Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Though he declined to address specifics of any extension talks, Mozeliak emphasized that the club is “always open for business.”

That comment largely confirms the status quo; it has long been assumed that the Cards would attempt to work out a new contract for Molina, whose former extension includes only a mutual option for 2018. As camp opened, the sides were said to have begun at least preliminary talks, and agent Melvin Roman said recently that “both sides are trying to work hard and see if we can make it happen.” At the moment, Molina is away from the club while he competes with the Puerto Rican entrant in the World Baseball Classic.

But Mozeliak did also make clear that the organization wouldn’t put any timelines on talks. “We are not a deadline organization, historically,” he explained. “So, as far as timing and how that goes, I’m not drawing any lines in the sand.” Whether or not Molina and his representatives would be amenable to continuing discussions into the season remains to be seen, though Mozeliak’s comments seem to put that possibility on the table.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals GM didn’t express any alarm at recent comments from former big leaguer Bengie Molina, who suggested his brother would test free agency if he didn’t receive an offer to his liking. That’s to be expected, Mozeliak indicated. Much as the Cardinals star will be looking out for his own interests, the veteran exec says he’ll be “trying to do what’s best for [the Cardinals] organization,” noting that “there is always a short-term approach and a long-term approach” that must be accounted for even as he acknowledged Molina’s importance to the team.

Molina’s central role and workhorse approach present a somewhat unique situation. At 34 years of age, it’s at best questionable whether Molina can continue to thrive while playing 130 or more games annually. And the team has a prized prospect on the way in Carson Kelly. Figuring out how lengthy a commitment to make, and at what price, isn’t straightforward for the Cards. Molina’s current contract paid him $75MM over five years, with the final $2MM of that guarantee coming in the form of a buyout of the $15MM mutual option.

Chi Chi Gonzalez Diagnosed With Partial UCL Tear

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 6:29pm CDT

Rangers righty Chi Chi Gonzalez has been diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to report. For the time being, he’ll receive a platelet-rich plasma injection and stop throwing for at least six weeks.

At this point, the course of treatment does not include any plans for Tommy John surgery or another procedure to address the injury. Given the promise some other pitchers have shown in bids to avoid such an invasive approach, with the lengthy attendant rehab timeline, perhaps Gonzalez too can return to action without going under the knife.

Indeed, just that hope explains the organization’s decision to pursue treatment at this stage. Club doctor Keith Meister “felt that with the area where the injury is, he has historically had a pretty good success rate for the conservative route of the [PRP] injection,” says assistant GM Josh Boyd. After the six-week layoff, the club will order up another examination to check the progress and determine the next steps.

Gonzalez, 25, worked to a 3.90 ERA in his first 67 MLB frames upon his 2015 call-up. But he managed only thirty strikeouts to go with 32 walks in that span. Though he was able to generate a strong 48.6% groundball rate and limit opposing hitters to a sparse tally of 49 base hits, he was aided by an unsustainable .206 BABIP.

The results didn’t carry over into 2016. Gonzalez spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he compiled a 4.70 ERA in 138 frames with 5.9 K/9 to go with 2.9 BB/9. He did move into the MLB rotation briefly, but was shelled for ten earned runs on 21 hits — with seven punchouts against nine free passes — in his 10 1/3 innings.

A former top-100 prospect and first-round selection, Gonzalez has long been expected to provided Texas with useful major league innings. But his pronounced struggles over the past two seasons were met with further difficulties this spring, and the injury clouds his future yet more.

In the near term, the loss of Gonzalez for at least a significant chunk of the upcoming season depletes the Rangers’ rotation depth. The organization has seen some promising signs from Andrew Cashner, at least, but at present appears likely to utilize A.J. Griffin and Dillon Gee to open the year while awaiting the return of Cashner and Tyson Ross. There are some other options on hand: Nick Martinez, Eddie Gamboa, Tyler Wagner, and Yohander Mendez all pitched in the majors last year and occupy 40-man spots. Still, the appeal of bringing back the still-unsigned Colby Lewis has only increased since camp opened, though there’s still no apparent movement on that front.

Rayan Gonzalez Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 5:11pm CDT

Right-handed Rockies pitcher Rayan Gonzalez will likely require Tommy John surgery, Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports via Twitter. Gonzalez suffered an apparent elbow injury in his most recent spring outing.

The 26-year-old reliever was added to the 40-man roster over the offseason and had seemed slated to take up a slot on the bullpen depth chart. While there was never any expectation that Gonzalez would crack the active roster to open the season, he’d likely have been one of several interesting young arms to take up residence at the highest level of the minors.

Gonzalez showed enough in 2016 to lead the Rox to protect him from prying rivals in the Rule 5 draft. Last year, over 52 Double-A frames, he worked to a 3.12 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 while allowing only 44 hits (just two of which were home runs).

As MLB.com’s Thomas Harding explained at the outset of camp, Gonzalez seemingly made yet more strides in the Arizona Fall League, where he allowed just three earned runs on seven hits over 11 2/3 innings. Beyond the results, he had impressed the organization with improvement in his fastball command, which had often been fleeting (4.1 BB/9 lifetime walk rate) over his time in the minors.

Make Or Break Year: Mike Moustakas

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 3:22pm CDT

MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.

There are several “make or break” candidates on this year’s Royals team, with pending free agents Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar all having much to prove. But there’s as much variance for third baseman Mike Moustakas as there is for any of those other core K.C. players, and he’ll face the added uncertainty of coming back from an ACL tear suffered last May.

Moustakas, who’ll turn 29 in September, was long viewed as a quality prospect who just hadn’t gained traction in the majors. Through the 2014 season, he had accumulated only a .236/.290/.379 batting line in over 500 games of MLB action. But Moustakas showed life in the 2014 postseason, raising hopes yet again that he’d finally come into his own on the playing field.

As it turned out, that’s just what happened. Moustakas blossomed in the Royals’ 2015 World Series campaign, setting personal-best marks in every triple-slash category (.284/.348/.470) while driving a career-high 22 long balls. And he continued to draw solid ratings for his glovework at the hot corner, leading to a 3.6 fWAR / 4.4 rWAR campaign in which he finally rewarded the organization’s commitment.

Things were off to a rather promising start in 2016, with Moustakas carrying a .240/.301/.500 slash when he hit the operating table. That’s all the more impressive given that he was held back by a .214 BABIP in spite of a 37.4% hard-hit percentage that is better than he’s ever managed over a full season. Plus, Moustakas had tamped down his already excellent strikeout ratio to a personal-low 11.5% level while boosting his walk rate to 8.0%, just below league average. Moustakas was also showing further strides in converting flyballs to home runs, with a 19.4% HR/FB ratio.

All said, the arrow has pointed up for Moustakas ever since he turned things on late in 2014. If he can regain that momentum and prove he’s back to full health, perhaps the missed time won’t prove a major hindrance to his earning power. A big season from Moustakas could leave him targeting something approaching the Pablo Sandoval contract (five years, $95MM), though perhaps only a true breakout campaign would make that achievable. But there’s plenty of earning power downside, too; after all, Moustakas has been a below-average hitter for the bulk of his MLB career, and anything short of a productive campaign might put quite a different spin on his overall track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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