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MLBTR Originals

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Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

  • Bradley Woodrum returned with a must-read update to his excellent, painstakingly researched February piece 2016, “Predicting Tommy John Surgeries.” As Bradley explains, Rangers left-hander Martin Perez should probably check it out. On the other hand, Bradley notes that things continue to look up for dominant Yankees rookie Chad Green.
  • Steve Adams sorted the starters and relievers of the upcoming free agent class by velocity, strikeouts, walks, groundball percentage and hard contact rate.
  • Steve also answered a reader’s question on whether the Mets should tender a contract to free-falling right-hander Matt Harvey in the offseason. On the heels of a terrible 2017, the former ace will head to arbitration for the third and final time over the winter.
  • MLBTR’s Three Needs series rolled along with entries on the Padres, Orioles and Angels.

CC Sabathia Plans To Pitch In 2018

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Veteran left-hander CC Sabathia plans to continue his career in 2018, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 37-year-old impending free agent may have taken the mound as a Yankee for the last time on Saturday, when he tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings of four-hit, six-strikeout ball in a win over the Blue Jays.

Whether New York advances past Minnesota in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game could help determine if Sabathia will get the ball again as a Yankee. The potential Hall of Famer was instrumental in the team’s regular-season success, pitching to a 3.69 ERA over 148 2/3 innings. Although Sabathia didn’t post gaudy strikeout and walk numbers (7.26 K/9, 3.03 BB/9), he helped offset that by logging a groundball percentage of 49.9 and, according to FanGraphs, the majors’ sixth-best hard contact rate among starters with at least 140 frames.

While the Yankees and Sabathia may part ways in the offseason, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team re-sign the franchise icon – especially considering fellow starters Masahiro Tanaka and Jaime Garcia could hit the market. Formerly with the Indians and Brewers, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner joined the Yankees prior to the 2009 season on a seven-year, $161MM contract and has turned into one of the most successful starters in their storied history. He helped the Yankees to their most recent World Series title in 2009, the first of five straight 200-inning seasons with the club, and has recorded a 3.75 ERA and accounted for 30.5 fWAR/28.5 rWAR across 255 starts (1,657 2/3 frames) in the Bronx.

Sabathia endured a rough, injury-impacted stretch from 2013-15, a period in which his ERA ballooned to 4.81 in 69 starts, but has overcome knee issues to reemerge as a capable starter over the past couple years. The 6-foot-6, 300-pounder is finishing up the five-year, $142MM extension he signed in 2011, when the Yankees gave him a raise to prevent an opt-out. Sabathia’s next deal obviously won’t approach his expiring pact in length or value, but he clearly made a case for a solid short-term payday during the regular season. The only question is whether it’ll come from the Yankees or another team.

NL Notes: Nats, Scherzer, Cards, Nicasio, Phillies

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Nationals ace and NL Cy Young front-runner Max Scherzer left his start in the fourth inning against the Pirates on Saturday with a right hamstring cramp, manager Dusty Baker announced. Baker added that Scherzer underwent a precautionary MRI, but the skipper didn’t seem overly concerned about the right-hander, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. A major injury to Scherzer right before the playoffs could be disastrous for the Nationals, who will match up with the Cubs in the NLDS. If healthy, Scherzer should take the ball for Game 1 on Oct. 6. The two-time Cy Young winner wrapped up his regular season with 3 1/3 scoreless, five-strikeout innings on Saturday, giving him a 2.51 ERA and 12.02 K/9 against 2.47 BB/9 across 200 2/3 frames.

More on Washington and a couple other NL franchises:

  • The Cardinals have discussed a new contract with impending free agent reliever Juan Nicasio, who made it clear Saturday that he’d like to re-sign with the club. “Try and make a good deal. I want to stay here,” Nicasio told his agent (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, on Twitter). Acquired in a trade with Philadelphia on Sept. 6, Nicasio has served as the Cardinals’ closer down the stretch and thrown 10 innings of two-run ball with the team. In 71 1/3 innings divided among Pittsburgh, Philly and St. Louis this season, the 31-year-old has put up a 2.61 ERA and logged 8.69 K/9 against 2.49 BB/9.
  • The Phillies’ decision to change managers could cost them promising hitting coach Matt Stairs, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. In Stairs’ first year on the job, the former slugger has won the favor of the Phillies’ hitters and played a key role in the development of some of their young players, details Zolecki. Thanks in part to Stairs, the Phillies’ offense has posted better numbers across the board than last year’s, including in the runs scored department (679 to 610). Stairs told Zolecki that he’d “love” to continue in Philly, but he realizes his fate rests with the team’s next manager.
  • On Saturday, the Nationals activated infielder Stephen Drew from the 60-day disabled list and moved reliever Shawn Kelley to the 60-day DL with bone chips in his right elbow. The move was made so Drew would be eligible for the postseason, though he’s unlikely to be ready for NLDS action, per Jamal Collier of MLB.com. An abdominal strain has shelved Drew since July 25, before which he slashed a disappointing .253/.302/.358 in 106 plate appearances. Kelley, who last pitched Sept. 22, also endured a poor regular season (7.27 ERA in 26 innings). The two-time Tommy John recipient is due a $5.5MM salary in 2018.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Abreu, Cards, Phils, J.D., Bautista, Judge

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

West Notes: Padres, Angels, Rangers

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Padres right-hander Jhoulys Chacin threw 180 1/3 innings of 3.89 ERA ball and contributed upward of two wins above replacement this season, making him one of the top bargain signings of 2017. Chacin inked a $1.75MM deal with the Padres last winter and should fare much better on his next contract, one that might come from another organization. But Chacin told AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday that he’d be willing to continue his career in San Diego (Twitter link). “It’s hard to tell,” Chacin said of his future. “But I would be really happy to come back here.” Re-signing the capable innings eater would make a lot of sense for the rebuilding, starter-needy Padres, as MLBTR’s Jason Martinez wrote Friday.

More from San Diego and a couple other cities:

  • Padres owner Ron Fowler informed Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune that there are “a couple people we’re fairly close to getting deals done with,” which could mean Chacin or any of their other impending free agents. Regardless, both Fowler and managing partner Ron Seidler suggested to Lin that they’re happy with how this year has gone for the club. Seidler has seen enough progress to believe the Padres could soon be a factor in the NL West, a division the big-spending Dodgers have ruled over the past half-decade. Looking ahead two years, Seidler said: “At minimum, if we’re not in the chase for (the playoffs), I’d be disappointed. (If not), it wouldn’t mean I’d be angry or upset or anything. I think, given where we are right now, in 2019 we should have every chance not to just be a playoff team but to win the division.” Check out Lin’s full piece for more quotes from Seidler and Fowler on the direction of the franchise.
  • By starting in his final three appearances of the year, Angels righty Bud Norris lost out on a $500K bonus, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Norris would have collected that money had he made 60 relief appearances (he finished with 57), but starting him was not a money-saving move by the Angels. Rather, Norris volunteered to switch roles down the stretch, his representative revealed. “He did it for the team,” agent Joel Wolfe told Fletcher. “Now he’s going into free agency as one of the most versatile and valuable pitching assets given the ways teams tactically use their pitching staffs. The value he’s gotten out of starting is far in excess of that performance bonus.” Norris joined the Angels on a minor league deal last January and proved to be a shrewd pickup, pitching to a 4.21 ERA and recording 10.74 K/9 against 3.92 BB/9 over 62 innings. Thanks to that production, he seems likely to land a major league contract during the upcoming offseason.
  • Shin-Soo Choo has gotten some practice reps at first base this week and could end up as a part-time option there in 2018 for the Rangers, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. The Rangers are likely to cut ties with Mike Napoli after the season, which could open up first for Joey Gallo, but he’s probably better suited for the outfield, Wilson observes. Should Gallo take a spot in the grass, it might lead to some time at first for Choo, who has only served as an outfielder and a designated hitter since making his big league debut in 2005. Advanced defensive metrics have typically been bearish on Choo’s work in the field, though, and he’ll turn 36 next summer. First seems like a more logical place for him, then, though Wilson cautions that this experiment isn’t guaranteed to stretch into next season. Offensively, the lefty-swinging Choo has turned in another respectable year with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a .261/.357/.423 line in 636 plate appearances.

East Notes: Mets, O’s, Jones, Showalter, Girardi

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Mets general manager Sandy Alderson isn’t pleased with the in-house finger-pointing directed at manager Terry Collins, who’s likely in his final season with the club. Alderson told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday that he “was exceptionally disappointed” in the member(s) of the front office who said earlier this week that Collins has lost favor with the team’s management. The GM added that “were I to know who that person was, that person would be terminated immediately. I think that this story and the aftermath overshadows, to this point, seven years of outstanding service” from Collins. Asked whether Collins has contributed to the Mets’ injury woes by overworking his players – something one club official has accused him of – Alderson said, “No, I wouldn’t agree to any of the substance of that conversation.”

Here’s more from the East Coast:

  • Orioles center fielder Adam Jones is scheduled to enter a contract year in 2018, when he’ll make $17MM, but he explained to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and other reporters that he won’t push for an extension. “I’m not going to advocate for anything,” Jones said Saturday. “I just don’t think you can go to the owner and say, ‘Mr. Angelos, I would like this.’ Nah, that doesn’t work. I think everybody would do that if it worked that way. I think the thing is, they know I’m here throughout next year. There’s nothing I can do about that part, but beyond that, it’s up to them.” Jones is one of a few key Orioles whose team control will expire after next season, with Manny Machado, Zach Britton and Brad Brach joining him. As such, 2018 figures to be the last hurrah for a core that has helped the franchise to a couple recent playoff runs. Long one of the Orioles’ top players, the 32-year-old Jones slugged 26 home runs this season, his seventh straight campaign with at least 25 long balls, and batted a respectable .285/.322/.466 in 635 plate appearances.
  • The Orioles’ skipper, Buck Showalter, could draw interest from teams during the offseason, but the O’s are unlikely to let him leave to manage someplace else, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes. Showalter still has another year left on his contract, and Connolly doesn’t expect owner Peter Angelos to allow him to bail out early if he’s interested in doing so. As Connolly notes, Angelos denied general manager Dan Duquette the opportunity to become the Blue Jays’ president in 2015, which suggests he’d repel any potential Showalter suitors. Since the Orioles hired Showalter in 2010, they’ve gone 622-567 with three playoff berths.
  • The Yankees’ Joe Girardi aims to keep managing beyond this season, but he’ll speak with his family before making a final decision, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. The Yankees are headed to the playoffs for the sixth time under Girardi, whom they hired prior to 2008 and who oversaw a World Series winner in 2009, and are 200 games over .500 on his watch (909-709). The 52-year-old Girardi is not under contract past this season, nor is five-time World Series-winning general manager Brian Cashman, so either or both could be elsewhere in 2018. However, considering the success Girardi and Cashman have enjoyed in the Bronx, it’s difficult to imagine the team letting either leave without a fight.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Ausmus, Gonzalez, Hendricks

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video for FOX Sports:

  • Departing Tigers manager Brad Ausmus says he would be open to managing a new team immediately, although he tells Rosenthal that there don’t seem likely to be many possibilities. Rosenthal, though, points out several, including the Phillies job as well as the Mets job, which is expected to open. The Braves could also be a possibility, and Rosenthal notes that if the Red Sox have a quick playoff exit and opt to part with John Farrell, Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hired Ausmus while he was an executive in Detroit.
  • Fredi Gonzalez looks to have many qualifications that could be attractive to the Tigers, including past managerial experience with a rebuilding club (the Marlins) and connections to Tigers GM Al Avila (with whom he worked while both were in the Marlins organization). The Tigers will, however, consider any number of other candidates. One they might not consider too carefully is Giants third base coach Phil Nevin, who the Tigers fired as their Triple-A manager near the end of the 2013 season.
  • Astros utilityman Marwin Gonzalez could be a free agent to watch in the 2018-19 offseason, Rosenthal argues. Like Ben Zobrist, who received a $56MM deal two years ago, Gonzalez switch-hits and can play several positions in the infield and outfield. Gonzalez is also reaching the end of an outstanding .303/.375/.530 season. I might point out that Gonzalez doesn’t have Zobrist’s overall track record, but Rosenthal notes that Gonzalez will have only recently turned 30 at the start of the 2019 season, and that unlike Zobrist, he can play shortstop.
  • Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks’ first-year arbitration case this offseason will be an interesting one, says Rosenthal. Hendricks has a 2.94 ERA over 100 career games, a number that compares favorably to that of Clayton Kershaw in his first few seasons. that isn’t to say Hendricks and Kershaw are similar players, as Rosenthal points out, only that Hendricks’ first arbitration payday could be a hefty one.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins

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Giancarlo Stanton discusses his future with the Marlins in a big new feature by Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman. Here are the highlights.

  • Stanton isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild, should the Marlins go that route, as seems fairly likely, under new ownership. “I don’t want to rebuild,” he tells Heyman bluntly. “I’ve lost for seven years.” Stanton’s take on the Marlins’ situation is worth noting, since he has a full no-trade clause, plus an opt-out after 2020.
  • “I’m sick of the negativity,” Stanton says. “Anything positive I’ve done, there’s still negativity. I’m doing this … but the owner’s doing that. I’m doing this, but the team’s doing that.” Stanton further notes that even upon the announcement of his record-setting contract, “most of the questions were negative.”
  • Stanton describes his chase for 60-plus home runs as “a fun little obstacle,” but adds that “[i]f it doesn’t happen … oh well.”
  • A rival executive tells Heyman that one potential issue with trading Stanton is that the Marlins would have to compensate for the backloading of the contract — Stanton has only made $30MM so far (meaning he’s been underpaid — by about a factor of three, Heyman figures), and $295MM is left on the deal.
  • This isn’t directly Stanton-related, but Heyman notes as an aside that in the Marlins clubhouse, veterans are wondering out loud about where they might be traded over the winter. Some feel the Cardinals are a possibility. Heyman doesn’t name them, although the Cardinals have been connected to Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich in the past.
  • Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto are the two players potential trading partners ask about most frequently, Heyman adds.

Indians Activate Michael Brantley

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The Indians have activated outfielder Michael Brantley from the 10-day DL, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. That means the team will have the option of placing Brantley on its ALDS roster. Manager Terry Francona had previously said the team intended to give Brantley “every chance possible,” although Bastian tweets that Brantley is not in tonight’s lineup.

Brantley had been on the DL since early August after suffering an ankle sprain. Before that, he was productive, batting .299/.358/.445 over 372 plate appearances while returning from a 2016 campaign that was ruined by a shoulder injury.

The Indians are currently going with an outfield mix of Austin Jackson, Jason Kipnis, Jay Bruce, Lonnie Chisenhall and others. Brantley would give them another option in left field, and possibly off the bench as well, in the playoffs. The team is also currently missing center fielder Bradley Zimmer, who’s out with a hand injury, and Brandon Guyer is currently active but struggling with a sore wrist.

Matt Garza Does Not Have 2018 Option, Will Become Free Agent

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Contrary to what had previously been known about Matt Garza’s contract, the Brewers no longer have a 2018 option on the right-hander, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. The option was voided after he crossed a games pitched threshold. Without the option, Garza is set to hit free agency this winter as his four-year, $50MM contract comes to an end.

Garza’s contract had a vesting option for 2018 that would have automatically exercised at $13MM if he had 110 starts from 2014-17 and under certain other conditions. He had only started 93 games in that time frame, however. The vesting option would have become a $1M club option if Garza had spent over 130 days on the disabled list in any season from 2014 through 2017, but he did not. It was previously thought that, in the absence of the $13MM vesting option or the $1M team option, the Brewers would have a $5MM team option, but evidently that isn’t the case.

It didn’t appear especially likely that the Brewers would exercise Garza’s option even at the reduced $5MM price. Jimmy Nelson is already set to miss the start of the 2018 season, and not having an option on Garza further reduces the club’s flexibility, but it still appears likely that the Brewers would have looked elsewhere for starting pitching help or relied on other internal options even if they could have kept Garza at $5MM.

After a strong first season in Milwaukee, Garza has struggled, and this year he’s posted a 4.94 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 while missing time to groin and leg issues. He also struggled down the stretch and was removed from the Brewers’ rotation weeks ago. That’s not exactly a world-beating performance, particularly when considered in the broader context of a third straight underwhelming season — since 2015, Garza has a 5.10 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 365 innings. The Brewers also might generally prefer to go with younger pitchers.

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