Craig Kimbrel Reportedly Asking For Nine-Figure Contract
We’ve heard very little to this point about the market for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel. That may be due to his eye-popping asking price: over $100MM, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Kimbrel and his reps at SportsMeter are obviously shooting for a record-breaking pact, at least as a starting point. It had previously been reported that the 30-year-old hurler was looking for six years, which has never before been secured by a reliever on the open market.
To this point, the largest and longest relief pitching contract is the five-year, $86MM Aroldis Chapman deal with the Yankees. That level of pay is obviously reserved for the truly elite relief arms — those few who, like Kimbrel, have been utterly dominant for extended stretches of time.
When the 2017 season came to a close, a nine-figure promise seemed well within reach for Kimbrel, who for the fourth time threw at least sixty innings of sub-2.00 ERA ball — and did so with an insane combination of 126 strikeouts against just 14 walks. He induced swinging strikes on just under one in five of the pitches he threw while maintaining a career-high 98.7 mph average fastball velocity.
Unfortunately, the final year of Kimbrel’s contract — an extension long ago inked with the Braves, then traded to the Padres and on to the Red Sox — was not to that standard. Kimbrel ended the 2018 campaign with a 2.74 ERA in 62 1/3 innings, with an excellent but hardly otherworldly mix of 13.9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. He still pumped 97.5 with the heater, though that was the first time he had dipped below a 98 mph mean heater since 2013.
Most worrying of all was Kimbrel’s uncomfortable postseason effort. It’d be silly to make too much of some brief struggles, and it all worked out in the end, but we’re talking about marketing a player as an unmatchable finishing piece for a team that wants to win it all.
There’s little doubt that Kimbrel’s October scuffles dented his armor a bit, though he also shouldn’t be counted out for a return to glory. Two of Kimbrel’s least-effective seasons have come among the past three, but he’s still unquestionably among the game’s very best relief pitchers. And his durability has been exemplary as well.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Kimbrel would set a new record, but only for average annual value for a reliever contract rather than total guarantee. It remains to be seen how things develop, but it’s notable that he’s aiming quite high to open the market.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Murphy, Ottavino, Tulowitzki, Winter Meetings
Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: December 12, 2018
Reds Acquire Tanner Roark
The Reds have announced the acquisition of veteran righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals. Reliever Tanner Rainey goes to Washington in the swap.
There have been indications over recent months that the Nats were inclined to move on from Roark, who projects to earn $9.8MM in his final trip through arbitration. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the D.C. organization has its eyes on another upgrade to its staff, with an obvious need for one or two additional rotation pieces.
Meanwhile, Roark will help to shore up a Cincinnati starting unit that the club has long targeted for improvement. The 32-year-old has thrown at least 180 frames in each of the past three seasons, even if the results haven’t always been there. Adding him to the staff likely won’t take the Reds out of the market for starters, though the club surely values the lack of a long-term commitment given the price for open-market pitching we’re seeing so far this winter.
Roark has, to be sure, turned in some eye-popping earned run averages over full seasons, but it’s tough to see him as much of an upside play. He has only once topped a ten percent swinging-strike rate, during his otherwise poor 2017 season, and has consistently graded out as a low-4 ERA type hurler in the eyes of ERA estimators.
That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Roark’s profile — there is. But it seems likelier that the Reds should anticipate a quality, durable rotation piece than the front-line starter Roark produced like in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, in which he spun 2.85 and 2.83 ERAs, respectively, in ~200-frame samples. The varying highs and lows over the years have seemingly correlated more with variations in opponents’ batting averages on balls in play than with significant differences in the underlying quality of Roark’s work on the mound.
If there’s an area of concern, it could be in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. Roark has never had particularly pressing issues with the long ball, but he has coughed up quite a few more in his lesser seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) than in his good ones. And after turning in approximately 48% groundball rates over the prior three years, Roark dropped to 40.7% in 2018 even as his flyball rate rose to 37.6% after sitting at or below 32% in that same three-year span.
As for the other Tanner R. in this swap, the 25-year-old Rainey is perhaps a more intriguing asset than his forgettable MLB debut effort would suggest. He scuffled badly in an eight-appearance showing last year, but did show a blazing fastball that touched 100 and averaged out at a healthy 98.3 mph.
Promising, Rainey also produced 52 innings of 2.60 ERA ball at the Triple-A level in 2018. Of course, that comes with a massive caveat: he also surrendered more than six free passes per nine innings, continuing his longstanding control difficulties. The Nats have taken some other notable risks on high-octane, command-challenged hurlers this winter. It seems likely that Rainey will open his time with the organization at Triple-A, unless he shows a major spark or a clear need arises during camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Evening Trade Chatter: Realmuto, Profar, Reds, Dodgers, Rockies
With rumors flying about Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, it’s still hard to guess where he’ll land. Miami president of baseball operations Mike Hill says that’s a result of the robust demand for Realmuto, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. While the Fish are working to home in on a narrower slate of suitors, per Hill, it’s hard at this point to do so. The Rays are one of the teams to have “circle[d] back” on Realmuto, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), which lends credence to Hill’s statement. Though the Tampa Bay organization recently added Mike Zunino behind the dish, it seems another acquisition could still be contemplated. Both players could conceivably coexist on the same roster (perhaps, but not necessarily, in a three-catcher arrangement with Michael Perez), or the Rays could in theory flip Zunino.
For now, that’s just another scenario to keep an eye on as the market develops. Here’s some more trade chatter from the Winter Meetings:
- The Athletics have engaged the Rangers in trade talks regarding infielder Jurickson Profar, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It seems the Oakland organization is scanning the market at second base, as the club is known to have interest in bringing back Jed Lowrie and has also been connected to Ian Kinsler (link) and DJ LeMahieu (link), with veteran Troy Tulowitzki perhaps representing a possibility as well. Rosenthal adds that handing the job to Franklin Barreto remains a possibility, as GM David Forst recently suggested, though it certainly appears that’s not the club’s preference. Profar, who seems to have been around forever but is just 25 years of age, turned in easily his most impressive season to date in 2018, slashing .254/.335/.458 with twenty long balls and ten steals over 594 plate appearances.
- There has been a bevy of rumors surrounding the Reds, who seem to be knocking on quite a few doors at multiple positions. Pitching, though, remains the key. The Cincinnati ballclub is still “active in trade discussions” with the Yankees on Sonny Gray and the Blue Jays on Marcus Stroman, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). It’ll surprise few to hear that the Reds see those two hurlers as more reasonably achievable targets than Indians ace Corey Kluber, as Morosi adds. Both Gray and Stroman profile as bounceback targets, marking quite a distinction from Kluber, with the former clearly set to be dealt but the latter occupying a less-certain position on the trade market. With two years of control remaining, the Jays are said to be putting a high price on Stroman.
- Speaking of Reds trade chatter, Rosenthal tweets that the club is still kicking around scenarios with the Dodgers. (We previously rounded up the rumors on that match here, here, and here.) It turns out that the clubs are discussing scenarios involving Matt Kemp, along with a host of other previously rumored players, in what are quite obviously wide-ranging talks. No deal is close, says Rosenthal, though it certainly appears as if both teams believe they match up well on paper on a deal that would, in conjunction with some other pieces, send an expensive outfielder to Cincinnati and deliver the hefty Homer Bailey contract out west. It’ll be fascinating to see whether something comes together in these talks — or, frankly, any of the many others being conducted by the Cincinnati and Los Angeles organizations.
- We heard yesterday about the latest in the Rockies‘ search for a big bat, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post updates the situation. Edwin Encarnacion of the Indians is a “legitimate target,” per the report, though GM Jeff Bridich has indicated that Wil Myers of the division-rival Padres is not. The Colorado organization is obviously looking to come away from the offseason with at least one significant offensive upgrade, though as yet it’s not clear whether the team has really narrowed its focus or is still canvassing the market in search of value.
Mets Rumors: Sanchez, Jones, McCutchen, Lagares
Rumors about a discussed three-team trade between the Mets, Marlins, and Yankees set the baseball world abuzz on Monday, though most recent reports have cast those talks are much more speculative in nature. If Mets fans were stunned at the idea of Noah Syndergaard potentially going to the Yankees as part of those three-team rumors, how would Yankees fans feel about Gary Sanchez going to Citi Field? The Athletic’s Marc Carig (Twitter link) reports that one of the many permutations of the Mets/Yankees talks saw Sanchez becoming the Mets’ new catcher. It isn’t known if the Marlins were involved in this scenario, or if it would’ve resulted in J.T. Realmuto or Syndergaard going to the Yankees, but whispers continue to swirl that the Yankees could be looking for a change at catcher, no matter how firmly GM Brian Cashman has continued to stand by Sanchez.
Even if it involves a rare trade with a crosstown rival, it seems clear that new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen is certainly looking at every possibility to upgrade his roster. Some more Mets-related rumblings…
- Adam Jones and his representatives have opened a line of communication with the Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). (Puma initially reported the sides had met face to face, but later retracted that aspect of the discussions.) With Yoenis Cespedes a health-related question mark for 2019, the Mets are looking at Jones and other right-handed hitting outfielders. Jones is hitting the open market for the first time in his career after spending the last 11 seasons with the Orioles.
- Andrew McCutchen was another name on the Mets’ list, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), though at a much lower price tag than the $50MM deal McCutchen received from the Phillies.
- The Mets already have a right-handed hitting outfield option in the form of Juan Lagares, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter) hears that the Mets have been trying to find a trade partner for Lagares. 2018 was a lost year for the defensive specialist, as a torn plantar plate in his left big toe resulted in season-ending surgery after just 30 games. Given the injury and the $9.5MM owed to Lagares in salary next season, the outfielder will be a tough sell in trade talks, unless New York eats some money or deals him for another bad-fit type of contract.
Reds Interested In J.T. Realmuto
3:38pm: The Reds are still talking to the Marlins about Realmuto but aren’t including Senzel in the trade negotiations, Jon Heyman tweets.
1:34pm: Yet another suitor has emerged for J.T. Realmuto, as SiriusXM’s Craig Mish (Twitter link) reports that the Reds “have jumped into” talks for the Marlins catcher. It isn’t a new interest, however, as the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer hears that Cincinnati has been interested in Realmuto “for a while.” Current Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart and outfield prospect Taylor Trammell have been mentioned as possible candidates to go back to Miami in the deal, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
Cincinnati has been linked to a number of big names in trade and free agent speculation this winter, with their focus largely aimed at pitching but also such notable position players as A.J. Pollock, Yasiel Puig, and Ender Inciarte. Acquiring a catcher, however, would count as something of an unexpected move on the Reds’ part, since Barnhart was signed to a four-year extension just in September 2017. As Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in baseball, there’s obvious upgrade potential for Cincinnati, and adding such a star player with just two years of remaining control further indicates the Reds’ willingness to make a quick return to contention.
Never an above-average hitter, Barnhart slashed .248/.328/.372 last season, which represented a dip from his 2017 production. Defensively, Barnhart continued to have some of the lowest framing rankings of any catcher in baseball (as per StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus), and his once-elite throwing arm also took a hit, as Barnhart threw out just under 24% of all baserunners trying to steal on him last season. On the plus side, Barnhart continued to draw high marks for his pitch-blocking abilities.
Barnhart is owed $10.25MM in guaranteed money over the next three seasons (including a $500K buyout of a $7.5MM option for 2022), so he’s still be a very affordable piece to solidify Miami’s catching situation if he was part of the Realmuto trade package. Trammell is a longer-term piece, and the type of blue chip prospect the Marlins have been seeking in exchange for their All-Star catcher.
Trammell is a consensus top-50 prospect in all of baseball, ranked as the second-best prospect (behind Nick Senzel) in the Reds’ system. MLB.com is most bullish on Trammell, ranking him 17th on its top 100 list. Drafted 35th overall in 2016, Trammell is regarded as an excellent athlete with outstanding speed, and a developing approach at the plate. The 21-year-old showed improved contact skills and plate discipline in his third pro season, and MLB.com’s scouting report believes Trammell will develop more power as he ages.
Dodgers “Actively” Attempting To Trade Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp
TODAY: Aside from Puig, the Dodgers and Reds have also discussed Alex Wood in trade talks, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets, though Feinsand’s source says “nothing serious at this point” has developed.
TUESDAY, 10:53pm: The Mets aren’t in on Puig, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.
10:27pm: The Dodgers are “actively” attempting to trade either or both of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Los Angeles would presumably have a much easier time moving the mercurial Puig, who’s the younger, less expensive and better of the two outfielders.
The 28-year-old Puig is projected to make an affordable $11.3MM in 2019, his last season of team control, and is reportedly “open” to playing for another club after developing a distrust of Dodgers management in 2018. The right-handed Puig has fallen flat against left-handed pitchers in back-to-back years, but nevertheless, he didn’t like that the Dodgers limited his playing time versus southpaws in 2018. Despite that, Puig still turned in another quality offensive season, hitting .267/.327/.494 (123 wRC+) with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 444 plate appearances. Since then, the Indians, Mets and Reds have been connected to Puig.
Kemp, 34, was similarly effective at the plate in 2018, as he bounced back from a rough 2017 in Atlanta to bat .290/.338/.481 (122 wRC+) with 21 long balls in 506 PAs. However, Kemp tailed off in the second half of the season, continued to struggle in the outfield and is due an unreasonable $21.5MM next year. The Dodgers figure to have trouble dealing Kemp, then, unless they eat a large portion of his salary or swap him for another team’s undesirable contract.
Jettisoning one or both of the Puig-Kemp duo would still leave the Dodgers with other outfield-capable players in Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and high-end prospect Alex Verdugo. Plus, given the Dodgers’ ability to spend, they may add to the group by signing Bryce Harper, the best, most expensive outfielder available in free agency. Incidentally, the Dodgers reportedly offered Puig to the Nationals for Harper at last summer’s trade deadline.
Rays Nearing A Deal With Charlie Morton
The Rays are closing in on a contract with free agent righty Charlie Morton, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link).
More analysis to come…
Pitching Notes: Cueto, Kikuchi, Holland, Happ, Howard
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes spoke with agent Bryce Dixon about Nelson Cruz‘s market yesterday at the Winter Meetings, and Tim also got an update on another Dixon client, Johnny Cueto. It isn’t yet clear when the Giants right-hander will be back on the mound in the wake of Tommy John surgery last August, though Dixon is optimistic about both a full recovery for Cueto and potentially a return late this season. Dixon’s full comments:
“The rehab is progressing on schedule. He says his arm feels great, he’s working out a ton. At the earliest, he could throw in the minors like middle/end of August, maybe see some Major League action in September. But it’s a wait-and-see, once he starts throwing, how it reacts. But the good news is he’s told me that his arm feels great. He doesn’t have any pain. The pain that he felt is all gone. The way he’s working out right now, I believe that when he comes back and he’s back in top form – obviously it’s going to take him a little bit of time to get back to that form – I think he’ll be as good if not better. If he can get back to how his arm felt prior, he’s such a different guy mentally than he was when he first came up when he was throwing so hard, that he’s got so many more tricks in the bag than he had back then, that I think about it, I’m like man, if he comes back 100% and is throwing like he did earlier in his career, wow, he could come back and be really, really special. Even more special than he had been before the surgery.”
Here’s more on some notable hurlers….
- Yusei Kikuchi will meet with interested teams later this month in Los Angeles, Kikuchi’s agent Scott Boras told reporters (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) today. The Japanese left-hander has received interest from several teams but it will still be a matter of weeks before he signs with a Major League team. Kikuchi’s 30-day posting window opened on December 4, so there isn’t any rush towards a deal.
- The Rangers have yet to check in on Derek Holland, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter). The club is known to be on the hunt for relatively inexpensive pitching, and the Rangers have at least internally discussed the possibility of trying to lure Holland for another stint in Texas. Sullivan notes, however, that Holland’s preference would be to remain with the Giants or stay in the National League.
- The Phillies aren’t willing to go beyond a two-year deal for J.A. Happ and expect the left-hander to sign with another team, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb tweets. Several teams have offered Happ two-year contracts, though the latest reports have the veteran southpaw closing in on a three-year agreement to remain with the Yankees.
- Before the Mariners dealt Jean Segura to the Phillies for Carlos Santana and J.P. Crawford, Seattle also tried to obtain pitching prospect Spencer Howard in the trade, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. The 22-year-old Howard was a second-round pick for the Phillies in the 2017 draft, and he has posted big strikeout numbers over his first two professional seasons. Salibury figures other teams will also ask, or have already asked, about Howard’s availability, though the Phils surely aren’t too eager to part with such an intriguing young arm. There is a fair amount of other pitching depth in Philadelphia’s system, however, to potentially make Howard somewhat expendable at the right price. MLB.com ranks Howard a fairly modest 18th in their ranking of the top 30 Phillies prospects, with seven other pitchers ahead of Howard on the list.
Trade Rumors: Cubs, Hardy, A’s, Tigers, Holt, Yankees
The Cubs have been linked to the reliever market, though they may wait until January before making any new acquisitions. As one source speculates to the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales, the Cubs might first need to clear some payroll space before adding to their bullpen. Rumors of a lack of a spending capacity have loomed over Chicago’s offseason, and the crunch could be tighter than anticipated if the team will have to move other salaries to afford even mid-tier relief pitching signings. Gonzales runs through a few of the names on the Cubs roster that could possibly be dealt in salary-clearing moves, though he notes that several of these options don’t look too feasible, as players are either coming off down years (i.e. Brian Duensing, Brandon Kintzler) or they’re coming off good years (i.e. Jose Quintana, Ben Zobrist) and thus still have value to a Cubs team looking to contend in 2019.
Some more trade rumblings from around the Winter Meetings…
- The Athletics have some interest in Tigers left-hander Blaine Hardy, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports. Hardy started 13 of his 30 appearances in 2018 and posted some generally solid (3.56 ERA, 3.00 K/BB rate) numbers, though he didn’t miss many bats with a 6.9 K/9. Hardy is only projected to earn $1.2MM next season and he is controllable through two more arbitration-eligible seasons beyond 2019, making him a particularly good fit for the budget-conscious A’s. With a rotation still dotted with injury question marks, the A’s could use Hardy as a swingman again, deploying him as a starter on occasion or possibly coming in to pitch after an “opener” starts the game. Despite this need for pitching, Oakland could be playing the waiting game on starting options, as Slusser notes that the club has yet to contact free agent arms like Derek Holland, Gio Gonzalez, or Lance Lynn. Also from Slusser’s piece, he notes that the Athletics will still look to re-sign catcher Jonathan Lucroy even after acquiring Chris Herrmann yesterday.
- There have been a number of names on the Red Sox roster (some surprising) mentioned as trade candidates within the last 24 hours, and the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo mentions that Brock Holt is another name that has received interest. A deal seems unlikely, however, as the super-utilityman is slated to handle second base if Dustin Pedroia isn’t ready for the start of the season. Holt rebounded from a poor 2017 campaign to hit .277/.362/.411 over 367 PA for the World Series champs last season, spending most of his time as a second baseman but also making starts at shortstop, third base, first base, and both corner outfield slots.
- As usual, a ton of trade speculation has swirled around the Yankees, and GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) that he has been asked about virtually every player on his roster. That list even includes James Paxton, as teams checked in to see if New York would consider flipping the star southpaw after acquiring him from the Mariners last month (needless to say, the Yankees declined). Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were the only two players Cashman said he hadn’t yet been asked about.