Projecting Payrolls: San Francisco Giants
With the Winter Meetings set to kick off next weekend, we’re moving to the tenth installment of this series. Here are links to the previous team payroll projections:
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.
Today, we look into a club whose on-the-fly re-stocking in 2018 largely backfired, keeping them out of the playoffs for the second consecutive season for the first time since 2009: the San Francisco Giants.
Team Leadership
Unlike many of the teams that we have examined in this series, the Giants’ ownership structure is highly diversified and somewhat secretive. 2008 began with Peter Magowan’s 15th year as managing general partner of the club. Magowan began the year in turmoil in the aftermath of the Mitchell Report and ended the year having transitioned his management role to Bill Neukom. Neukom ran the show only until 2011 at which time Charles B. Johnson became the plurality member in the LLC that owns the ball club. Johnson reportedly owns approximately 25 percent of the team as part of a group of approximately 29 co-owners.
Despite the complicated ownership structure, the front office enjoyed tremendous continuity. Brian Sabean ascended to the role of general manager in 1997 and held that job through the 2014 season before climbing to Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, with Bobby Evans handling day-to-day operations starting in 2015. No more. Sabean was reassigned out of Baseball Operations following the 2018 season, at which time Evans was fired.
The executive tasked with re-imagining the San Francisco front office? Former Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi. Zaidi spent a decade in the Bay Area with Oakland before spending the last four years in Los Angeles. As the new President of Baseball Operations, Zaidi will oversee the first major transition in San Francisco’s baseball management in two decades.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Giants, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. For the Giants, this time frame covers a period of rebuilding that ultimately fueled three World Series winners. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
Those payrolls were remarkably stagnant through 2010 before taking a leap in 2011 that became an annual tradition throughout much of the years that followed.
During this period of increased spending, the Giants did reach luxury taxpayer status for the first time in 2015, remaining there for each of the next two seasons before resetting their status in 2018 by falling under the threshold. The team paid just $8.8 million in aggregate luxury tax payments over those three seasons, so the tax hasn’t substantially impacted team spending over our time frame.
While Major League spending has increased dramatically over the time period above, the Giants haven’t allocated substantial resources to international amateur bonuses. It seems as though the cash increases were focused nearly exclusively on the Major League roster that made regular trips to late October throughout this decade.
Future Liabilities
Get ready for lots of big numbers for multiple years.
The big-money, long-term commitments are staggering.
Cueto, owed $71 million over the next three years presuming that the Giants buy out his 2022 option, was a star during his debut season with San Francisco in 2016, producing 5.5 WAR in leading the team’s rotation as they made their most recent playoff trip. Cueto’s 2017 season was marred by numerous injuries, including the dreaded forearm strain that served as a precursor to a nightmarish 2018 spent largely on the disabled list before he underwent Tommy John surgery last August. As a result, the Giants likely expect little to nothing from him again in 2019.
Like Cueto, Posey underwent a significant operation in August. Unlike Cueto, Posey has produced at a consistently elite level throughout the course of his contract, until this year’s career-worst 106 wRC+. While Posey’s hip operation figures to hamper his efforts to prepare for the season, he should be ready around Opening Day.
Samardzija was solid during his first year in San Francisco before a strong second year in 2017. Unfortunately, the remarkably durable righty finally succumbed to the injury bug, losing most of 2018 to a shoulder injury that lingered into the start of the offseason. With only two years left on his deal, it’s possible that the Giants have received as much value as they’ll be getting from that contract.
The next two players are both longtime Giants who played key roles on championship teams but have settled into roles as solid regulars instead of impact stars. Both Belt and Crawford are young and talented enough to rebound in 2019, but neither contract represents excellent value, especially Belt’s as the first base market has largely collapsed since he signed his extension.
The next two contracts look bad. Really bad. Melancon arrived in San Francisco to shore up the back of a wobbly bullpen. However, bouts with forearm injuries have limited his chance to make an impact. When he has pitched, he’s been solid but certainly nothing close to what the Giants expected from him given his contract. Longoria appears headed down a startlingly similar path, struggling mightily in his first season since arriving from Tampa Bay via trade. At 33, Longoria faces long odds to reattain star status, but the Giants would likely be happy if he returned to being a solid regular for at least a few more years.
We’ll skip to Watson for a moment. The veteran lefty structured his contract in such a way that the Giants stayed just under the luxury tax threshold, and he rewarded the team by delivering the finest season of his career in 2018, despite an across-the-board drop in velocity.
Now for the skipped contract: Bumgarner. The longtime ace and World Series hero finds himself at a crossroads that would have been inconceivable two years ago. Bumgarner made at least 31 starts each year from 2010-16, but an April 2017 shoulder injury suffered in a dirt bike accident, perhaps combined with years of significant usage, has changed his trajectory going forward. The Giants are willing to listen on their ace as he heads toward free agency next year.
In the aggregate, San Francisco is as committed to their current roster as any team in the league. Overhauling the roster would require a bevy of big-salary moves from Zaidi.
Given this amount of guaranteed money, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Giants have very little in the way of arbitration-eligible talent. After they said goodbye to Hunter Strickland and Gorkys Hernandez, key reliever Will Smith is, incredibly, the only arbitration-eligible Giant who hasn’t already agreed to terms with the club. Here are their arbitration projections, noting that both Sam Dyson and Joe Panik have already come in at salaries south of those projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz:
While Smith missed all of 2017, he returned in 2018 and filled the role of bullpen ace that Giants leadership hoped to see Melancon fill.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
Very little regarding the specifics of the 2019 payroll. Given their recent payroll push into the baseball stratosphere of spending, the Giants are largely expected to maintain a significant payroll next year. While Zaidi has hinted at something of a mini-rebuild — perhaps including a Bumgarner trade — there’s no indication from management or ownership that payroll will plummet.
Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News expects payroll to stay in line with that of current years, coming in shy of the luxury tax line but among the top figures in the league.
Are the Giants a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Probably. It’s a bit tougher to see a Machado fit given that the Giants would likely have a whale of a time trying to move Crawford or Longoria right now. But Harper makes plenty of sense for a team in need of youth, power, and an influx of talent. He certainly checks all three boxes. As a kid from Nevada, it’s likely that the Giants at least get a chance to pitch the young slugger on the benefit of playing on the West Coast.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
The Giants are much tougher to peg than most other teams given the relative silence of their front office and the equally likely possibilities that they rebuild on the fly or go for a return to glory in 2019.
Entering the next phase of the offseason, the Giants hold a payroll of $156.0 million, $162.8 million for luxury tax purposes.
If the Giants can get Harper to commit to the team, I expect that his commitment will be accompanied by ownership’s commitment to enter taxpayer territory for the next two or three years in order to field a viable winner. It’s going to take additional cash to get there.
If Harper doesn’t come to town, expect to see the team remain under the tax line, albeit arriving close to that figure. With the tax threshold at $206 million and somewhere north of $13 million counting for player benefits, the Giants figure to want that tax payroll to come in around $190 million to leave them with a bit of wiggle room.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $185 million cash ($204 million for luxury tax)
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $29 million
Pitching Notes: Eovaldi, Corbin, Kluber/Bauer, Soria, Holland
If there was any doubt as to the Red Sox‘ desire to bring back Nathan Eovaldi after his strong run with the club late in 2018, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put it to rest in comments today. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report, Dombrowski confirmed that the organization has been engaged with Eovaldi’s camp this winter — though he also cautioned that “there’s a lot of interest” in the righty leaguewide. How far the Sox will go in the bidding remains to be seen, but Dombrowski said that Eovaldi is “a guy that we love.” With only a few major needs to be accounted for, the defending World Series champs seem a prime potential landing spot — as we predicted at the outset of the offseason.
- The Padres also have interest in Eovaldi, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). It has long been rumored that the San Diego club would hunt for starting pitching this winter, but the injury-prone, high-octane 28-year-old would make for a particularly interesting target. After all, numerous big spenders (see above) are in the fray. For the budget-conscious Friars, beating the market for Eovaldi would surely mean taking on a rather significant risk. Perhaps that’s part of a more general strategy for a team that has plenty of interesting arms filtering through the system and is looking to move toward contention now while adding players who’ll contribute for some time to come. The San Diego franchise has also kicked around trade concepts with the Mets on Noah Syndergaard and, as Lin notes, already agreed to a hefty two-year pact with Garrett Richards in hopes he’ll recover and turn in a strong 2020 campaign.
- Even as Eovaldi draws plenty of interest it seems the early market will be driven by Patrick Corbin, the excellent lefty who just completed a tour of several big-spending east-coast clubs. The Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies still profile as the likeliest landing spots, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though he notes that other teams are still in the mix. A decision, in any event, still seems to come sooner than later. Yankees GM Brian Cashman made clear that his organization is a serious pursuer of a hurler with deep ties to the region in an interview this evening with Jack Curry of the YES Network (write-up via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “We’re doing everything in our power to put ourselves in position to be a legitimate consideration,” says Cashman, who calls Corbin “a special talent.” This sort of public endorsement obviously won’t decide the matter, but it surely indicates that the Yankees are engaged in a full press.
- The trade side of the starting pitching market remains somewhat more difficult to assess at this stage, but the Indians still seem to be driving the bus (at least unless and until we learn more about the seriousness of the Mets’ intentions regarding Syndergaard). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests on Twitter that the Cleveland org will likely wait until there has been some movement at the upper levels of free agency before moving Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, though it’s not entirely clear why that’d necessarily be the case. At the moment, Morosi adds in a subsequent tweet, the Braves are not actively engaged on either hurler. Of course, it’d likely be unwise to rule out the Atlanta club at this stage, given its assortment of intriguing young talent and desire to add a frontline rotation piece.
- Veteran reliever Joakim Soria is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs at this early stage of the free agent market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. The Diamondbacks, Angels, Yankees, Braves, and Reds are all involved to some extent, per the report, representing an interesting slate of organizations. While the New York and Atlanta clubs are clearly in position to add veteran talent in a bid to repeat their postseason appearances from 2018, the other teams listed by Chavez are in somewhat less-certain positions in respect to the open market. The Los Angeles and Cincinnati ballclubs are surely interested in spending to contend, but will need to choose their targets wisely. Meanwhile, Arizona is exploring sell-side deals while also trying to achieve value with new investments. That Soria appeals to all of these teams seems to suggest that the league believes the 34-year-old has plenty left in the tank. And for good reason: he just wrapped up a campaign in which he spun 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, with a healthy 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a personal-best 14.4% swinging-strike rate.
- Free agent southpaw Derek Holland is drawing multi-year interest, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). It’s all but impossible to gauge his true market at this stage, with some bigger dominoes still to fall, but it stands to reason that he’d make some degree of sense for a fairly broad group of clubs. At the outset of this year’s hot stove market, we guessed Holland could warrant a two-year, $15MM commitment. Though there are obvious limits to his value at 32 years of age, Holland did finally break out of a multi-year malaise with a strong 2018 campaign in which he contributed 171 1/3 frames and worked to a 3.57 ERA — his first full season of sub-4.00 ball since way back in 2013.
Braves To Sign Pedro Florimon
The Braves have reportedly agreed to a minor-league pact with veteran infielder Pedro Florimon. Roster Roundup had the news recently on Twitter, with Jon Heyman of Fancred tweeting today that a deal is in place.
Florimon, who’ll soon turn 32, has found his way onto a MLB roster in each of the past eight seasons. He has only twice reached triple-digit plate appearances, though, and hasn’t done so since a 2013 campaign in which he received semi-regular time with the twins — but hit just .221/.281/.330.
In the intervening years, Florimon has carved out a role as a handy depth infielder. He cracked the Opening Day roster of the Phillies last year, but missed much of the season with a broken foot. He doesn’t seem to have much of a path onto the Braves roster awaiting him in camp, though he could certainly be the first man up if a need arises in the infield.
Angels Announce Coaching Staff
The Angels have announced the coaching staff that will serve alongside new skipper Brad Ausmus. We had previously covered the hiring of Ausmus as well as pitching coach Doug White, hitting coach Jeremy Reed, and assistant hitting coach Shawn Wooten.
A variety of notable names will be rounding out the unit — in a manner that lines up nicely with the coaches’ prior experience. Long-time MLB infielder Mike Gallego will, unsurprisingly, work with the infielders. He’ll also coach third base. Similarly, long-time backstop Jose Molina will work with the Halos’ catchers.
Gallego had been director of baseball development for the Halos, while Molina was working as the minor-league catching coordinator with the organization. Obviously, both impressed the organization, as they’ll now step back into a uniform at the MLB level.
Jesus Feliciano, who only briefly cracked the bigs as a player, will make his way back to the majors as well. He’s set to work with the outfielders, a position he long played in the minors, while serving opposite Gallego as the team’s first base coach. Feliciano had worked previously in the Cubs system.
In other staff moves, former MLB slugger Paul Sorrento will form a trio with Reed and Wooten to work with the organization’s hitters. He had been assistant hitting coach but will now work as “hitting instructor.” Recently retired reliever Andrew Bailey had been replay coordinator but is moving into a role as bullpen coach.
Phillies, Mariners Announce Trade Involving Jean Segura, Carlos Santana, J.P. Crawford
The Phillies and Mariners have struck a deal that sends shortstop Jean Segura to Philadelphia along with relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos. On the other end of the swap, the Seattle organization will receive veteran first baseman Carlos Santana and young infielder J.P. Crawford.
Money is a major aspect of this deal, but it seems the clubs were able to work things out by swapping contracts rather than paying down portions of any deals. Segura will receive a $1MM bonus for waiving his no-trade clause. It seems the M’s will pay, though that’s not fully clear. Segura will keep his NTC rights moving forward in Philly.
Seattle has pulled off a series of significant moves this winter, in service of what the club hopes will be a relatively quick reboot. Cost savings aren’t the only relevant pursuit, but it’s clearly important. In a way, then, this trade feels like a bit of a surprise at first glance.
After all, Segura is not only a high-quality player, his contract rights are generally appealing. He doesn’t turn 29 until March, and he is controlled through the 2022 season on a contract that will pay him $58MM over those four seasons (including a $1MM buyout of a $17MM club option for 2023). With Nicasio’s $9MM salary for 2019 added in, there’ll be $67MM in total heading to the Philly books.
On the other side, the M’s are taking back $35MM owed to Santana over the next two seasons (including the $500K buyout of his 2021 option, which is priced at $17.5MM). Since the other two players in the deal are not yet eligible for arbitration, the Seattle ledger will be left about $32MM lighter at the end of the day.
Beyond the financial savings, which are significant but nevertheless disappointing given Segura’s performance, the Mariners are adding an intriguing replacement at shortstop. Crawford has been a consensus top-16 prospect in the sport (as per Baseball America and Baseball America) in each of the last three seasons, though his messy, injury-plagued 2018 season has certainly dimmed his stock.
Crawford, the former 16th overall pick, first reached Triple-A in 2016. He scuffled at the plate in his first exposure, but came into his power in the following season and seemed primed for a breakthrough. Unfortunately, forearm and hand injuries intervened, limiting Crawford’s time. It’s notable, too, that he went down on strikes in 26.8% of his plate appearances while walking at a good-but-not-great 9.4% rate. Plate discipline, after all, is his calling card. On the other hand, his .214/.319/.393 slash still worked out to a 96 wRC+ and there’s still surely room to grow. Crawford, after all, will not turn 24 until January.
Even while recognizing the very real value that still lies in the rights to Crawford, it’s hard to escape the sense that this wasn’t a deal the Mariners really loved making. While there was some interest from other quarters in Segura — the Yankees reportedly took a look, while the Padres and Mariners discussed a potential blockbuster that would’ve sent Segura and Mike Leake to San Diego in exchange for Wil Myers — it seems it never reached a boiling point. It’s certainly true, as Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs wrote tonight, that there was a thin market at shortstop. And some whispers of clubhouse issues (including a scrap with Dee Gordon) probably didn’t help. As Dipoto explained tonight: “If the market were higher, we would have made a higher level trade.”
There’s certainly some value in Santana, too, despite his tepid output in 2018. It was just last winter, after all, that the market made him something of an exception for its newfound dislike of lumbering sluggers. The switch-hitter’s plate discipline remains top-notch, and he not only handles first base well but showed he can give some innings at the hot corner.
If you look at it long enough, you can begin to wonder why it is the Phillies were interested in giving up Santana after adding him only one year back. Surely, the team can see that his .231 batting average on balls in play is likely to rise and that he’s more or less the same player they targeted. In this case, though, GM Matt Klentak and co. were faced with some incongruous roster occupants and a clear mandate to improve.
Last year’s experiments provided information, but perhaps not of the kind the Phils were hoping for. Rhys Hoskins failed to make the transition from first base to the corner outfield, creating a dilemma. Meanwhile, Crawford wasn’t quite ready to become a regular at short; neither was Scott Kingery.
This swap, then, suits a variety of needs in Philadelphia. Finding a reasonable way to move on from Santana was clearly necessary. Hoskins can step back in at first base while leaving a corner outfield spot open for some other impactful hitter who can handle the position defensively.
The addition of Segura, though, was surely the driving force. He has become a highly productive offensive player, with a .308/.353/.449 slash line to go with 41 homers and 75 steals over the last three seasons. While Segura is highly reliant on contact, he’s also quite good at avoiding strikeouts (personal-low 10.9% K rate in 2018) and getting aboard when he puts the ball in play (.320 lifetime BABIP). Perhaps he won’t revisit his high-water power point (twenty long balls and a .181 ISO in 2016), but Segura seems likely to deliver above-average work with the bat for much of the remainder of his deal.
It’s not as if Segura is a stretch to play at shortstop, either. He has mostly graded in range of average over the years, with DRS generally valuing him as a slight plus and UZR shading the other way. Regardless, he can handle the job. Segura hasn’t scored as well for his overall baserunning in recent years, but obviously can still run and should probably be viewed as a positive performer in that regard as well.
Some reports had indicated that just-acquired Mariners right-hander Anthony Swarzak was to be passed along in the swap. Instead, it’s Nicasio, who has a similar salary to that of Swarzak and functions in the same essential capacity in this trade. Actually, the 32-year-old Nicasio looks to be one of the most interesting buy-low relief candidates out there on the heels of a bizarre 2018 campaign. He was tagged for six earned per nine over 42 frames, but also posted a pristine combination of 11.4 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. Clearly, a .402 BABIP and 58.1% strand rate played a big role in the struggles.
Meanwhile, Pazos could be a cost-effective boon to the Philadelphia relief corps, having pitched to a 3.39 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 across 103 2/3 innings for the Mariners from 2017-18. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled through the 2022 season. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes on Twitter, Pazos exhibited some worrisome trends late in the year, with some velocity loss and “mechanical issues.” Still, it’s an easy chance for the Phillies to take on a potentially quality reliever who’ll still earn the league minimum.
For both organizations, then, this was quite a notable swap — and one that could set the stage for further dealing.
On the Phillies’ side, the club has found an answer at short, but perhaps not in the way some anticipated entering the winter. Manny Machado now looks to be a potential target to line up at third base, which isn’t his preferred position, as Klentak has made clear that the club sees Segura as its shortstop. Having made a significant upgrade without adding much salary (and even while resolving the Santana issue), the Phils also now still seem to have ample flexibility to work with in exploring further major acquisitions.
Meanwhile, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has now moved three more established players after already shipping out James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz in less than four weeks’ time. Mike Leake and Kyle Seager are also being shopped. And perhaps the team’s most recently added veterans shouldn’t be ruled out, either, with Santana joining Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak as pieces that could be moved if the M’s see a chance to add talent and/or save further coin. It’ll be most interesting to see whether any further controllable talent — most notably, Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales — could be on the move this winter.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that a deal was nearing (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted further detail, as did Rosenthal (Twitter links). Rosenthal (in a tweet) and colleague Jayson Stark (on Twitter) had details on Segura’s no-trade rights.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Likely To Hire J.P. Ricciardi In Advisory Role
Former Blue Jays general manager and Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi is finalizing a new contract to join the Giants’ front office as a senior advisor, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’ll be the first of what should be several front office additions for new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Andrew Baggarly and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported talks between the two sides (Twitter link).
The 59-year-old Ricciardi spent eight years as a special advisor to the general manager in New York played a prominent role in the front office between the time at which Sandy Alderson stepped down as general manager and Brodie Van Wagenen was hired as Alderson’s successor. Ricciardi, along with fellow advisor Omar Minaya and assistant GM John Ricco, shared the workload of overseeing the Mets’ baseball operations department for much of the summer following Alderson’s departure. The Mets announced last month that the two sides had “mutually” agreed to part ways.
Ricciardi is no stranger to the Bay Area, having come up through the ranks with the Athletics in the late 80s and early 90s. The veteran exec broke into the front office side of the game as an area scout with the A’s in 1986 and rose to the titles of scouting supervisor, national crosschecker and, in 1999, director of player development. The Blue Jays hired him as their general manager in 2001 — a role he’d hold for eight years before being replaced by Alex Anthopoulos in 2009. Ricciardi has worked extensively with both Alderson and current A’s executive vice president Billy Beane in the past and will bring more than three decades of scouting and player development experience to his new post if and when the organization makes the hiring official.
Mets Announce Acquisition Of Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz
After several days of anticipation, the Mariners and Mets have made what will surely be one of the offseason’s biggest moves official: Seattle has traded second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz to the Mets in exchange for outfielder Jay Bruce, right-hander Anthony Swarzak, right-hander Gerson Bautista and prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn.
Beyond the contractual values changing hands, the Mariners are sending a reported $20MM to the Mets to help offset the remaining $120MM owed to Cano through 2023. That said, the blockbuster swap will still save the Mariners a reported total of roughly $64MM. With the $20MM sum spread in approximately even amounts during the remainder of Cano’s time under contract, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), the move will leave the Mets’ 2019 payroll in more or less the same position it was beforehand.
It’s a stunning move from multiple angles. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto denied reports early in the offseason that he was considering a tear-down of the Mariners’ roster but, in the month or so since making that comment, has now traded James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Cano and Diaz — to say nothing of a Jean Segura trade to the Phillies that is reportedly nearing conclusion but has yet to be formally announced.
Meanwhile, the Mets, who’ve typically operated with a far tighter budget than one would anticipate for a club in that market, are taking on a huge amount of money in order acquire Cano and Diaz, and they still have ample work to do to address holes elsewhere on the roster. The deal is all the more fascinating when observing that newly hired Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen was formerly one of the game’s most prominent agents and that the largest contract he ever negotiated was none other than Cano’s 10-year, $240MM deal with Seattle.
Cano, who had to waive his no-trade clause to green-light this deal, will head back to the city where his big league career started and figures to supplant Jeff McNeil as the Mets’ primary second baseman. It’s a tough pill for McNeil to swallow after he hit .329/.381/.471 as a rookie, but he should still be in line for plenty of at-bats. The Mets could well give him a significant amount of work at third base, depending on the organizational plans for Todd Frazier, and McNeil has seen brief minor league work at shortstop, first base and in the outfield as well. At one point, the Mets were reportedly debating the possibility of sending McNeil to Seattle as what would’ve been a key part of this swap, and the fact that they were ultimately able to keep him is a critical factor when taking a step back and even attempting to evaluate the complex transaction.
It’s also important to emphasize that while Cano’s contract, like any 10-year free-agent deal or extension, was an obvious overpay at the time, he’s not an entirely sunk-cost acquisition. Though he served an 80-game suspension following a failed PED test last year, Cano hit .303/.374/.471 with 10 home runs through 348 plate appearances on the season as a whole. Some will point to the suspension in an effort to invalidate his output, but Cano was actually better at the plate upon returning from that ban; in 179 PAs down the stretch, he hit .317/.363/.497.
There’s also been plenty of talk about his defense, but the notion that he needs to move to first base because he’s no longer a quality defender at second base carries little weight. Since the 2012 season, Cano has received negative marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating just once (2015), and he tallied +4 DRS and a +2.8 UZR in 561 innings at the position this past season.
Of course, while Cano was still an extremely productive player when on the field in 2018, it’d be foolish to simply expect that he can continue playing at that pace in 2019 and beyond. The eight-time All-Star turned 36 in October, and he’s already outperforming the typical aging curve that one might expect for someone who is well into his mid-30s. While he may prove to be an anomalous exception in that regard, history suggests that Cano’s production will begin to deteriorate sooner rather than later. If the Mets were even able to receive two strong seasons out of Cano, they’d likely consider that a victory. There’s little doubt, though, that the final two to three seasons of Cano’s contract won’t be worth what they pay him — even with Seattle picking up a portion of the tab.
Really, though, the trade was less about the Mets hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with the final couple of productive seasons of Cano. For Van Wagenen and the New York front office, this trade was a means of effectively purchasing four below-market seasons of one of the game’s premier young relievers. The 24-year-old Diaz just put the finishing touches on a historically dominant season — 1.96 ERA, 15.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 44.4 percent ground-ball rate, 57 saves — and missed arbitration eligibility by a matter of weeks. He’ll make less than $1MM in 2019 and can be controlled for a fraction of his open-market price through his three arbitration years.
However, Diaz won’t be the typical bargain that many associate with arbitration-eligible players. His enormous save and strikeout totals should push him into record-breaking territory among relievers, and it’s conceivable that he’ll be paid in the $8-9MM range for his first arbitration season in 2020 — assuming another productive campaign in 2019. Like most arbitration-eligible stars, he’ll still be highly valuable asset, but the real question of this trade is just how much surplus value comes with Diaz and how confidently one can project him to maintain his dominance. One could argue that the four years of Diaz being acquired by the Mets is worth anywhere from $60-80MM (if not a bit more), and considering he’ll be paid somewhere around half that sum, he’s an extremely appealing commodity.
The debatable question is whether that surplus value is great enough for the Mets to both part with prospects and take on some negative value at the back of Cano’s deal. Obviously, both Kelenic and Dunn are exponentially more affordable than they’d be in an open-market setting themselves, and the Mariners feel that long-term value, paired with the subtraction of a huge financial burden in the form of Cano, are worth surrendering one of the game’s better young arms. There’s no clearly correct answer in that subjective debate. In the end, the Mets feel the up-front value of Diaz’s electric repertoire and the remaining productivity Cano has to offer are the more valuable asset.
That, in fact, is perhaps the most important takeaway from the entire scenario. While much of the summer was spent wondering whether the disappointing and dysfunctional Mets would trade Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and others — thus embarking on a rebuild like the ones the Mariners have begun — the addition of Cano and Diaz at a premium price firmly suggests that Van Wagenen and the Mets’ staff are unabashedly in “win-now” mode. Trade rumblings surrounding Syndergaard persist, though it’s clear that if he’s to be moved in a trade, it would need to be a deal that netted immediate MLB help at another position of need. The Mets are in for a highly active winter, and the organization seems fully committed to keeping up with the emerging threats in Atlanta and Philadelphia, as well as the near-perennial postseason contenders in D.C.
The Mariners entered the offseason with a bloated payroll and an aging roster, but they did so on the heels of an 89-win campaign that saw them firmly in contention for a postseason spot for much of the season. Dipoto and his staff, though, were undoubtedly cognizant of the team’s glaring run differential (-34 at season’s end). Mariners decision-makers were surely aware that there was a fair bit of good fortune that contributed to their sterling record for much of the season. While that reality and a bloated payroll initially led to comments about “re-imagining” the roster in Seattle, the M’s have instead taken a more drastic approach.
It’s a credit to Dipoto and his staff, in some regards, that the team has managed to shed upwards of $100MM in salary obligations (including the projected arbitration payouts for Colome, Paxton and Zunino while also accounting for the contracts they’re reportedly taking back in today’s trades). And, while they’ve stripped away a number of fan favorites and productive veterans from the roster, they’ve also added a significant amount of MLB-ready talent that could soften the blow immediately.
Mallex Smith and Omar Narvaez will be regulars on the 2019 roster, while pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson should both factor into the 2019 rotation at some point (possibly from Opening Day, in Sheffield’s case). Bautista, acquired in return for Cano and Diaz, will be given an opportunity to claim a bullpen spot. Bautista, 23, averaged 96.9 mph on his fastball in an exceptionally brief MLB debut this past season (4 1/3 innings) and has averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings since the Mets acquired him from the Red Sox in 2017’s Addison Reed trade.
And that doesn’t yet factor in the addition of Bruce and Swarzak — two veterans who, while acquired more to offset Cano’s salary than anything, are only a year removed from productive big league seasons that resulted in multi-year guarantees in free agency. While it’s eminently possible, if not probable, that the Mariners will look to trade both, it’s also at least possible that either could simply suit up in Seattle this coming season and perhaps enjoy a rebound. Bruce could unseat Ben Gamel in left field, and the Mariners’ relief corps is rife with uncertainty at present, creating an easy path for Swarzak to work toward reestablishing himself.
Of course, for the Mariners, this trade is primarily about the opportunity to not only add a pair of recent first-round picks in Kelenic (2018) and Dunn (2016) but also simultaneously jettison half the remaining money owed to Cano (for his age-36 through age-40 seasons). That contract was signed under the Mariners’ previous front-office regime and was likely never something Dipoto’s group was excited about inheriting. And Kelenic and Dunn will add a pair of interesting young talents to a farm system that had previously been regarded as one of the weakest in the game — if not the absolute worst.
Just 19 years of age, Kelenic was selected with the sixth overall pick just under six months ago. At one point, the Wisconsin native was tabbed as a potential No. 1 overall pick, and he’s done nothing to dispel the notion that he was a worthy top 10 overall selection since signing. In his brief time with the Mets, Kelenic hit .286/.371/.468 with six homers, 10 doubles, six triples and 15 stolen bases (in 16 tries) across two minor league affiliates. Scouting reports agree that Kelenic has the potential to be average or better in center field, and he’s already ranked comfortably within the game’s Top 100 prospects by MLB.com and Fangraphs.
Dunn, who turned 23 in late September, tore through Class-A Advanced opposition in 45 2/3 innings this season, posting a 2.36 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9 and a 39.3 percent ground-ball rate. His ERA jumped to 4.22 in 89 2/3 innings of Double-A ball, but he averaged 10.5 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs per nine innings pitched at that more advanced level — all while seeing his ground-ball rate improve to 45.1 percent. Dunn did average 3.7 walks per nine innings in Double-A, so there’s some work to do on his control, but he’ll instantly become one of the Mariners’ more intriguing pitching prospects.
In the end, the Cano/Diaz blockbuster, while fascinating, is impossible to accurately judge at present. While everyone will surely formulate his or own opinion of the deal as presently constructed, there are too many trickle-down effects that will prove critical when looking back at the deal down the line. Can the Mariners further unload some of the money owed to Bruce and/or Swarzak? Will either rebound? Is Kelenic a star in the making or one of the countless drops in the bucket of “what could have been”? Will Mets ownership finally give its baseball ops staff the resources commensurate with the team’s market size, or will the addition of Cano’s contract prove prohibitive when pursuing additional win-now maneuvers? All of these will factor into the calculus of this trade when looking back on it six months, a year and five years from now. What’s immediately clear is that this is a legitimately franchise-altering transaction for both organizations — and it’s unlikely that either is anywhere near finished with its offseason roster shuffling.
SNY’s Andy Martino reported last week that the Mets were being “aggressive” on Cano. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweeted that there was “significant momentum” toward a trade that would send Cano and Diaz to the Mets (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Kelenic and Dunn were being discussed and that an agreement between the two teams was close (Twitter links). Martino tweeted details on the package, reporting that Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic and Dunn would be in the deal, and Bautista could be the fifth player. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed Bautista’s inclusion. Passan added further clarity on the financial component of the trade (via Twitter), while MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted that Cano had officially waived his no-trade clause. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted the exact package, including the money changing hands.
Marlins Sign Pedro Alvarez, Dixon Machado, Deven Marrero To Minor League Contracts
The Marlins announced Monday that they’ve signed a slew of players to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training. First baseman Pedro Alvarez and middle infielders Dixon Machado and Deven Marrero have the most recent MLB experience of the bunch. Left-hander Mike Kickham, right-hander R.J. Alvarez, infielder Jon Berti and outfielder Gabriel Guerrero all have big league experience as well. Miami also made its previously reported re-signing of catcher Bryan Holaday to a minor league contract official and revealed that prized outfield addition Victor Victor Mesa will participate in Major League Spring Training.
Alvarez, 32 in February, is the most recognizable name of the bunch. The former No. 2 overall draft pick and Pirates slugger has spent the past three seasons in the Orioles organization. “El Toro” swatted 22 homers and had a solid year at the plate — primarily as a platoon designated hitter. He returned to the O’s on minor league pacts in each of the past two seasons but spent more time in Triple-A than in the Majors. Last year, Alvarez batted just .180/.283/.414 with eight homers in 127 Major League plate appearances and hit .243/.311/.446 with 16 homers in 305 Triple-A plate appearances. He’ll give the Marlins another option to compete for playing time alongside Peter O’Brien and Garrett Cooper.
Machado, 26 (and of no relation to the free-agent market’s more prominent Machado), appeared in 140 games with the Tigers from 2017-18. He’s generally regarded as a quality up-the-middle defender but didn’t provide enough hope with the bat to keep his roster spot in Detroit, even as the Tigers themselves are somewhat starved for middle-infield options. Machado batted just .229/.280/.303 in 414 PAs over the past two seasons, and he’ll give the Miami organization a glove-first depth option.
Marrero fits a similar profile. The former Red Sox first round-pick (2012) has long drawn praise for his defensive prowess but has yet to find success at the plate in parts of three seasons with Boston and another in Arizona. In 343 MLB trips to the plate, Marrero has posted a woeful .197/.250/.283 slash with five homers, 10 doubles and 10 steals. He does have experience at three infield positions, so he’ll join Machado in competing for a bench job in Miami this spring.
Kickham, soon to turn 30, will return to the Marlins organization after a solid minor league campaign in 2018. Through 42 innings (34 1/3 of which came in Triple-A), Kickham notched a 3.64 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He hasn’t been in the Majors since 2014 and has surrendered 37 earned runs in 30 1/3 frames as a big leaguer, but he’s thrown well in the Miami minor league ranks since 2017.
R.J. Alvarez, 27, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2015 and has a career 7.39 ERA through 28 innings at the game’s top level. He’s punched out 101 hitters through 88 2/3 innings with the Rangers’ Triple-A club across the past two seasons, though he’s done so while exhibiting questionable control (48 walks).
Berti, 29 next month, received a four-game cup of coffee with the Blue Jays late in 2018, which marked his MLB debut. He’s struggled to a .593 OPS in 506 career PAs in Triple-A but posted much better numbers in Double-A. As with Machado and Marrero, he’ll provide some infield depth.
Guerrero, 24, was once considered to be one of the Mariners’ best prospects but has seen his production evaporate since reaching the Double-A level. The Reds gave him his first taste of the Majors in 2018, and he managed to connect on his first big league homer in a brief 14-game stint with Cincinnati. On the whole, though, he went 3-for-18 with eight strikeouts and no walks in his first MLB cup of coffee. There’s certainly reason to believe that a player with Guerrero’s bloodline can improve; he’s the nephew of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and the cousin of Blue Jays uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Beyond the aforementioned players, the Marlins also added catchers B.J. Lopez, Sharif Othman and Rodrigo Vigil to minor league contracts, as well as left-hander Brian Moran. None of that quartet has MLB experience, though each will have the opportunity to win a job in Spring Training, it seems. Lopez, Othman and Vigil were minor league free agents of the Marlins and each re-signed to return to the organization.
Mariners, Mets Agree To Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz Blockbuster
Dec. 3: The trade is official, tweets Passan. The two sides will make an announcement today, it seems.
Dec. 1, 8:49pm: Cano has indeed waived his no-trade clause, per Morosi. It’ll be Cano, Diaz and $20MM for Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista, Heyman tweets. The trade will save the Mariners approximately $64MM, Johns notes on Twitter. It should become official “late Monday,” Sherman reports.
8:10pm: A deal is in place, pending physicals, Tenchy Rodriguez of ESPN Deportes Radio reports (Twitter link via Jon Morosi of MLB.com). The trade could be announced as early as Monday, Martino tweets.
3:38pm: The aforementioned “work” to be done on the deal, per Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, is tri-fold: The commissioner’s office must approve the amount of money exchanging hands in the deal, each player must pass his physical, and Robinson Cano must give official approval to waive his no-trade clause. Per Rosenthal, the trade should be announced “early next week.”
Nov. 30, 6:24pm: The Mariners are only expected to chip in something in the mid-$20MM range to cover Cano’s salary, per Passan (via Twitter). Seattle will still be absorbing the two significant contracts, of course, but it seems the New York org will be paying for about half of Cano’s contract (while also presumptively paying Diaz in arbitration).
Meanwhile, there’s still work to be done on the deal, which Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets will not be concluded this evening.
8:15am: The Mets and Mariners aren’t expected to formally announce anything today, Heyman tweets. That said, Newsday’s David Lennon suggests that the parameters of the deal are largely believed to be in place, so the lack of a Friday announcement doesn’t indicate that there’s any kind of snag in the deal.
Nov. 29, 11:56pm: Bautista would indeed be the fifth piece going to Seattle in the deal, as currently constructed, Sherman tweets.
11:30pm: McNeil will not be included in the trade if it is ultimately completed, per Sherman. Instead, he tweets that the Mets will send Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce, Swarzak and another reliever to the Mariners. Notably, Sherman reports that medical info has still yet to be reviewed, and Cano has yet to waive his no-trade clause (though there’s no expectation that he’ll veto a trade that would send him back to New York City).
10:15pm: It seems that the two sides haven’t quite finalized the group of players who’d head to Seattle in the deal. Martino tweets that the Mets are still “hesitant” to include McNeil and are currently proposing right-hander Gerson Bautista in addition to Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce and Swarzak.
Obviously, that’d be a fairly substantial change to the deal’s perception; Bautista is a flamethrowing young righty with upside, but he’s yet to find success in the Majors or even the upper minors. McNeil, meanwhile, looked like a potential big league regular in his rookie season with the Mets this past season.
Puma had previously tweeted that McNeil wasn’t in the trade as of yesterday, though there’s “some thought that may have changed today,” so it seems as if the organization could be on the fence about whether to ultimately include the promising 26-year-old.
8:40pm: The trade is “expected to be completed by Friday,” tweets Passan. He further clarifies that it’s not yet clear how much money the Mariners would send to the Mets to help offset Cano’s remaining contract. Sending Bruce and Swarzak to Seattle would effectively leave the Mets on the hook for $86MM of Cano’s salary, and it seems fair to expect that Seattle would add some additional cash to help further offset the financial commitment to Cano.
Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that things have advanced to the point where the Mets have begun to formally alert players to the fact that they’re in a deal that is on the verge of completion (albeit not yet 100 percent complete).
8:08pm: The offer on the table, at present, would see McNeil, Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce and Swarzak all head to Seattle in exchange for Cano and Diaz, tweets Martino. He cautions that the two sides have not yet reviewed medical information on the players involved, which always has the potential to throw a wrench into trade negotiations. Heyman tweets that a combination of those names is on the table.
7:11pm: A trade involving Diaz and Cano is close to being agreed upon, tweets Rosenthal.
6:33pm: Sherman tweets that the talks between the two sides are indeed intensifying, adding that the Mariners are now focused on the Mets rather than any other potential trade partners. Both Bruce and Swarzak could be included as a means of helping to offset Cano’s salary, and there are plenty of details to be sorted out, including medical reports and Cano’s no-trade clause.
5:40pm: Talks between the Mariners and Mets are reaching a “critical stage,” tweets Rosenthal. He notes that New York’s offer to Seattle includes some combination (but not all) of Kelenic, Dunn, McNeil, Bruce and Swarzak. That latter pair of names would seemingly be more about offsetting salary than anything else, while the first three are all well-regarded young players who’d provide the Mariners organization with a substantial amount of long-term value.
Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Greg Johns tweets that talks are indeed accelerating. A deal seems quite likely, per Johns, though the specific names involved are still being sorted out.
5:15pm: The Mariners are talking to multiple clubs about Cano, Diaz and shortstop Jean Segura, Rosenthal tweets. Those negotiations include myriad scenarios, including combinations of those three players as well as standalone deals for each. Similarly, Sherman adds that the Mets are operating with the belief that they’re one of many clubs in talks with the Mariners as they explore trades for combinations of those three as well as standalone swaps.
1:24pm: The teams have discussed scenarios involving both Cano and Diaz individually, as well as package arrangements, per Martino (via Twitter).
10:13am: “Significant momentum” has built toward a deal that would send high-dollar veteran second baseman Robinson Cano and top-shelf young closer Edwin Diaz from the Mariners to the Mets, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). Cano has reportedly not yet been asked to waive his no-trade rights, though Passan adds that is not expected to represent a significant hurdle.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post characterizes things somewhat differently in his own series of tweets. His sources indicate that the “Mets do not currently feel like they are close to a deal,” though he also makes clear that the interest is serious. Notably, Sherman suggests that the New York organization still doesn’t have a firm sense of whether the M’s are committed to packaging Cano and Diaz at all. Indeed, indications are that the Seattle org is still engaged with other clubs.
Obviously, the full parameters of this potential swap have yet to be revealed in full. And it’s hardly a done deal. But some chatter about other pieces has emerged as well. Recent first-round draft picks Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn are “under discussion” along with other pre-MLB assets, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Youngster David Peterson is also in the conversation, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. It’s important to emphasize that there is no specific indication that any or all of these young players is involved in a specific, fully built out scenario that the two organizations are deciding upon. Rather, per Heyman, the sides are tossing around different deal structures, with the Mariners demanding prospect value if they’re to part with Diaz.
Particulars aside, it’s rather stunning to see that the concept — a deal packaging Cano’s $120MM in remaining salary with Diaz — has advanced to this stage. There are certainly shades of the 2015 Melvin Upton/Craig Kimbrel swap here, so there is a clear model to follow, but this new proposal involves somewhat more extreme contract rights. (Upton was owed nearly $75MM less at the time of that swap than Cano is now, for instance.)
Cano is already 36 years of age, and sat out half the 2018 campaign due to a suspension for use of a masking agent, so the five years left on his deal are hardly an appealing proposition. But he’s also still a high-quality major-leaguer. Diaz, meanwhile, is unquestionably the top relief asset that could be had on this winter’s market. Though the aforementioned Kimbrel is an immensely accomplished closer who’s presently available in free agency, Diaz handily outperformed him last year. More importantly, he has the clear edge in youth and cost.
Unquestionably, quite a bit more will be involved in any actual trade than the two players rumored to this point. The Mariners will in all likelihood hold on to some of Cano’s contract and/or absorb a Mets contract in return. And the New York club will surely send back some talent. Those details will determine the ultimate merits of the swap for each club.
We’ll have to wait to learn the details, if anything is actually concluded. But it seems clear even from these reports of intense interest that the Mets are not only chasing the elite young closer, but see an opportunity to capture a some value from Cano, whose contract new GM Brodie Van Wagenen negotiated in his prior life as an agent. The long-time star is clearly not in his prime, but he still hit quite a bit when he wasn’t on the restricted list last year. Presumably, he’d step in at his accustomed second base, a position he can still handle (albeit not at his once-elite levels).
Adding Cano at second would dislodge Jeff McNeil, who emerged last year with an outstanding debut showing. The Mets would still have other options to shift around their infield pieces. It could also be that McNeil would move in the trade. He has appeared in the conversation between the organizations, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo tweets. McNeil already 26 years of age and only just debuted in the majors in 2018, but was one of the most pleasant surprises league-wide in the just-completed campaign. He not only showed off his typically excellent plate discipline, but turned in a notable power surge (as against his prior minor-league track record) and then slashed a hefty .329/.381/.471 in 248 big league plate appearances.
The full potential ramifications, clearly, would depend upon as-yet-unknown specifics. That’s due in no small part to the still-unknown slate of prospects that could be involved and, even more importantly from a MLB roster perspective, the contracts that could head the other way. We’ve heard Jay Bruce‘s name thrown around quite a bit as a potential big contract to go to Seattle. Perhaps Juan Lagares would hold more appeal to the M’s, as a defensive stalwart who seems to fit the mold of player that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto often targets, though he’s not owed as much. Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas, and Anthony Swarzak are among the other costly veteran pieces who could in theory be utilized to facilitate a swap.
For now, then, it doesn’t seem we know all that much more about the realistic possibilities than we have for the past week or so, as Cano/Diaz rumors have permeated the hot stove landscape. Even the level of seriousness of the Mets has been suggested, with SNY.tv’s Andy Martino calling the club an “aggressive” pursuer. Previously, though, it has hardly been evident that there was a realistic path to a trade that would lead to a match. The importance of these most recent developments is that, as Passan puts it, “there is an increasing expectation a trade will get finished.”
Dodgers Extend Dave Roberts
The Dodgers announced that they’ve reached an agreement with manager Dave Roberts on a contract extension that runs through the 2022 season. Los Angeles had previously exercised Roberts’ option for the 2019 season, but he’ll now be under contract for an additional three guaranteed season. That it was announced as a four-year contract may indicate that Roberts was also given a raise for the upcoming season.
“Keeping Doc as our leader on the field was a top priority this offseason and now that we’ve accomplished that we are excited to collectively shift all of our focus to doing all we can to bring a World Championship to our passionate fans,” said president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman in a statement announcing the move.
Since Roberts was hired in the 2015-16 offseason, the Dodgers have gone 287-199 in regular-season play, won three NL West Division titles and won two National League pennants en route to consecutive World Series appearances. Despite the glowing results, Roberts has drawn the ire of some Dodgers fans — as is the case with most postseason managers who ultimately fall short — particularly with regard to bullpen management and a rather rigid reliance on platoon-based lineup construction. Of course, it’s easy to zero in on relatively isolated incidents in a short series and lay blame on any manager when those moves don’t work out. Sticking with Enrique Hernandez throughout a prolonged slump in the postseason, for instance, was a particular point of contention among Dodger fans, but Roberts was surely more focused on Hernandez’s generally strong numbers against lefties over a much larger sample.
Regardless of which side of that type of issue on takes, it’s tough to dispute Roberts’ results in terms of the team’s performance in getting to the World Series in two straight years. While he undeniably had plenty of star power on his side, Roberts also at times had to lean heavily on rookies and relative unknowns while dealing with injuries to high-profile talent. Clayton Kershaw has missed time in each of the past three seasons. Corey Seager was a non-factor in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery early in the year. Players like Chris Taylor, Max Muncy and Ross Stripling have emerged from obscurity to play prominent roles in the team’s success, while veterans such as Brandon Morrow and Matt Kemp have enjoyed career renaissances in L.A. in recent seasons.
To that end, Roberts has also done well to manage what has, at times, felt like an overcrowded roster — one with numerous high-profile players who have been accustomed to much larger roles than they found on a deep Dodgers roster. By all accounts, Roberts has done well to maintain a strong clubhouse environment and to get veteran players to buy into more limited roles with an eye toward the bigger picture. That’s no small task, and while a pair of crushing World Series losses has made Roberts a polarizing figure for Dodgers faithful, the front office is clearly more than confident that he’s the right person to return the Dodgers to another Fall Classic and take care of unfinished business.
“When I was hired to lead this team three years ago, I said at the time that managing the Dodgers is truly the opportunity of a lifetime and I feel the exact same way today,” said Roberts in a statement of his own. “We’ve worked hard to develop a team and culture that will put us in position to win the World Series every season, but we still have yet to achieve our ultimate goal and that is what drives me each day. I want to thank Andrew, Stan Kasten and our outstanding ownership group for believing in me and keeping me in Dodger Blue, a uniform I’m so proud to wear.”