Quick Hits: Reds, Holland, Mariners, Royals
Free agent left-hander Derek Holland has been in contact with the Reds, tweets MLB Network’s J.P. Morosi. After a resurgent season with the Giants, which came after signing a minor league contract late last offseason, Holland appears poised to reel in a far more valuable big league contract for the 2019 season. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR pegged him to receive a two-year contract worth $15MM. The 32-year-old Holland has thus far been tied to the Rangers as a potential suitor; he previously played in parts of eight seasons with Texas after debuting with the club in 2009. The Reds, meanwhile, have made it clear that they intend to play more competitive baseball in the coming season, with much of that improvement tied to the starting rotation. Having already acquired Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, the Reds would still like to add another arm to join the two newcomers, budding star Luis Castillo, Anthony DeSclafani, and Tyler Mahle. Though the Reds have been linked to big names such as Dallas Keuchel and Corey Kluber, those avenues appear unlikely; Sonny Gray remains a potential trade target for Cincinnati, and Holland’s name is now being thrown in the hat as a more affordable option to fill out the team’s starting staff.
Some other notes from around the major leagues…
- Though the Mariners have been perhaps the offseason’s busiest club to date, the team likely has more moves yet to come. Greg Johns of MLB.com lists a number of trade candidates that general manager Jerry Dipoto may still move. Though it hasn’t yet been a month since Edwin Encarnacion was traded from Cleveland to Seattle, Dipoto seems intent on finding a trade partner for the veteran slugger. With Nelson Cruz now off the market, a team like the Rays, who at a time appeared to be in position to acquire Encarnacion, could move to fill their DH spot with a right-handed impact bat. Johns also names veteran right-hander Mike Leake, as well as infielders Dee Gordon and Kyle Seager, as other Mariners on the block. However, Gordon and Seager each seem less likely to find suitors, given that both turned in underwhelming 2018 seasons and are still owed significant dollar values over multiple years. As for Leake, many teams would certainly be interested in adding a durable, consistent (if unspectacular) innings-eater like Leake, who has now pitched upwards of 175 innings in each of the last seven seasons.
- In other news out of Seattle, TJ Cotterill of The News Tribune writes that the Mariners have leveled their own allegations against former employee Lorena Martin, who in November accused team leadership of racism and gender discrimination. In addition to stating that Martin’s allegations are false, the Mariners claim that they received multiple complaints that Martin “created a hostile work environment” and that she “misrepresented herself as a medical doctor.” According to Cotterill, the Mariners have received reports that Martin implemented her own practices for treating injured players in place of doctors’ orders. In their defense of Martin’s lawsuit against the Mariners, the team is seeking to void the remainder of Martin’s contract, as well as damages for her accusations on social media that team officials made discriminatory remarks about Latino players. An investigation into Martin’s accusations was launched by MLB, which has yet to make public its findings.
- Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com offers his outlook on the Royals‘ remaining plans for the offseason, suggesting first and foremost that the team would like to add a pair of inexpensive free-agent relievers before Spring Training. While they won’t be targeting any of the marquee bullpen arms that have yet to sign, Flanagan proposes that, due to limited payroll flexibility, general manager Dayton Moore will take a more patient approach to the market, pursuing bargain veterans whose demands have lowered late in the offseason. The bullpen, of course, is a glaring need for the team that finished with baseball’s second-worst record in 2018. And while the Royals have yet to make any significant additions in that area, Flanagan also notes that the club expects to have a surplus of candidates vying for a rotation spot, and those who fail to make the cut will likely shift to a bullpen role. This depth could make for some natural improvement, even if the Royals cannot invest big money in improving the unit.
Free Agent Faceoff: Robertson Vs. Britton Vs. Ottavino
Seven-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel entered the winter as the undisputed No. 1 reliever available in free agency, but it’s not as easy to identify the second-best option on the open market. When the offseason commenced, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd lumped four relievers close together behind Kimbrel in terms of projected earning power. They forecast that Jeurys Familia, David Robertson and Zach Britton would each earn three-year, $33MM contracts, while Adam Ottavino would come in a bit behind at three years and $30MM. Familia’s now off the board, having rejoined the Mets on a three-year, $30MM guarantee, while fellow bullpen arms Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria have also received lucrative contracts.
With Familia, Miller, Kelly and Soria no longer in the free-agent mix, it’s clear that Robertson, Britton and Ottavino are the most desirable non-Kimbrel relievers without teams. There has been widespread interest in all three over the past couple months, with some of the same clubs in contention for multiple members of the group. But who’s the most appealing hurler among the trio?
Perhaps the answer is the right-handed Robertson, who has put together nine straight highly productive seasons of 60-plus innings. Undoubtedly one of the most durable and effective relievers in recent memory, the longtime Yankee is coming off a season in which he logged a 3.23 ERA/2.97 FIP with 11.76 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 45.3 percent groundball rate across a career-best 69 2/3 innings. Never one to rely on high-90s velocity, Robertson continued to confound hitters with his breaking stuff, as FanGraphs rated his curve as the most valuable pitch of its kind among 2018 relievers. Batters posted a dreadful .196 weighted on-base average against that pitch and an even worse .145 mark when he threw his slider, according to Statcast.
If there’s one concern with Robertson, it’s his age. He’s set to turn 34 in April, meaning it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll continue to thrive over the course of a multiyear deal. Britton, meanwhile, is three years younger, having turned 31 on Dec. 22. Aside from Kimbrel, Britton likely had the best peak of anyone in this winter’s class of free-agent relievers. The left-hander amassed anywhere from 65 2/3 innings to 76 1/3 in each season as the Orioles’ closer between 2014-16, a three-year span in which he converted 120 of 128 save opportunities, led relievers in groundball rate (77.9 percent), placed second in ERA (1.38) and recorded 9.26 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9.
Britton was close to infallible during his heyday, but he fell off between 2017-18, when forearm, knee and Achilles injuries limited him to 78 innings. Britton still managed a terrific 3.00 ERA and a fantastic 72.8 percent grounder rate in that period, which he spent with the O’s and Yankees. His K/9 (7.27) and BB/9 (4.5) each went in the wrong direction, though, and his power sinker wasn’t as imposing.
Unlike Robertson and Britton, Ottavino brings little game-ending experience to the table, evidenced by his 17 career saves. He’s also a onetime Tommy John surgery patient and a 33-year-old whose career with the Cardinals and Rockies hasn’t been all that consistent. The righty has put together a handful of outstanding seasons and a few poor campaigns, though it seems he found another gear in 2018. After a woeful 2017 in Colorado, Ottavino spent last offseason working to improve his command in his native New York City, as former FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik detailed in May, and the results were astounding.
Using primarily sliders and sinkers, Ottavino pitched to a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across a personal-best 77 2/3 frames last season. In the process, his first-pitch strike rate increased nearly 14 percent from 2017 and his out-of-zone swing rate climbed by almost 5 percent. Further, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com pointed out in October, Ottavino was a soft-contact wiz in 2018, trailing only all-world relievers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen in xwOBA against (.229; Robertson’s was .276, while Britton checked in at .311).
Although it’s obvious that Ottavino’s career has been less impressive than those of Robertson and Britton, it’s possible he’s the best of the three right now. Cases could be made for both Robertson and Britton, however, and it’ll be interesting to see how much guaranteed money these three high-end relievers ultimately receive in the coming weeks. Which one would you sign?
(poll link for app users)
Which reliever do you prefer?
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Zach Britton 39% (6,736)
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David Robertson 37% (6,285)
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Adam Ottavino 24% (4,146)
Total votes: 17,167
Quick Hits: LeMahieu, Rangers, O’s, Senzel, Calhoun
While DJ LeMahieu played his high school ball in Michigan, a return to his old stomping grounds in the form of a Tigers contract “isn’t likely,” MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes. Detroit figures to wait until closer to Spring Training to land a second baseman, so LeMahieu will likely be off the market by then, plus his desire for a multi-year deal probably also doesn’t fit with the Tigers’ plan to acquire a short-term bridge to prospect Dawel Lugo. The Nationals, Dodgers, and Athletics have all been linked to LeMahieu at various points this offseason, though it’s probably safe to count Oakland out of the running after the team’s acquisition of Jurickson Profar. In general, Beck feels the Tigers could wait until later in the offseason to address several needs, looking for low-cost veterans or potential bargains to fill holes in the rotation, bullpen, catcher, or on the bench. The Tigers may also have to hold off on dealing Nick Castellanos until after Bryce Harper signs with a new team, in order to take stock of a newly-shuffled outfield market.
Some more from around baseball…
- Is Adam Jones a fit for the Rangers? MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan believes so, opining that Jones’ right-handed bat would help balance out the team’s heavily left-handed outfield mix, plus Jones could provide clubhouse leadership to an increasingly young team. There’s certainly an argument to be made for such a signing, or at least for a player of a similar mold, should Jones himself be a bit too expensive for the Rangers’ liking or if he only wants to play for a team aiming to contend in 2019.
- Speaking of signing veterans, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski argues that the Orioles should see what they have in their young pitchers rather than acquiring an experienced innings-eater for the rotation. Barring a trade, Baltimore will have Andrew Cashner, Dylan Bundy, and Alex Cobb as its top three starters, which perhaps provides enough of a veteran base to allow the O’s to audition any number of young arms through the other two rotation spots.
- Nick Senzel is on pace to make his Major League debut sometime in 2019, though without a clear position to play in the Reds‘ lineup, the team could deploy Senzel as a multi-positional threat, the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale writes. Senzel was drafted as a third baseman and has spent much of his minor league career at the hot corner, though he saw more time at second base last season at Triple-A and even started one game at shortstop. The Reds also intended to use Senzel as a corner outfielder in Arizona Fall League play, though he was sidelined after surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. The biggest priority for the Reds and Senzel is simply to make sure that the top prospect is healthy in the wake of an injury-shortened 2018 season, and to get him everyday at-bats no matter what position he fills around the diamond. Senzel could even be considered for some time in center field, which is the only open position the Reds have at the moment.
- Trading Kole Calhoun would help free up some payroll space for the Angels to go after pitching, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger isn’t sure how much the Halos could really save in such a deal. Calhoun is owed $11.5MM next season, counting both salary and a buyout of his $14MM club option for 2020, and it seems like the team would have to eat at least some of that given that Calhoun is coming off a replacement-level season. Los Angeles could also conceivably swap Calhoun for another player with a contract his team would like to unload, if such a fit could be found. Of course, the Angels are hoping for a rebound year from Calhoun and have him penciled in as their everyday right fielder, so dealing him would create another roster hole to be filled.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/18
Rounding up some minor moves from around baseball…
- The White Sox have signed right-hander Donn Roach to a minor league deal, as per the Mariners Minors Twitter account. Roach posted a 5.77 ERA over 39 innings with the Padres, Cubs, and Mariners from 2014-16, though he has also spent time with six other MLB organizations and with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization. The White Sox previously signed Roach to a minors deal last offseason, and he pitched well for Triple-A Charlotte (2.65 ERA over 95 innings, starting 15 of 16 games) before being released in July to sign with Japan’s Orix Buffaloes.
Angels Sign Alex Meyer To Minors Contract
The Angels have re-signed right-hander Alex Meyer to a minor league deal, Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage reports (Twitter link). Meyer was originally released by the club at the end of November.
2018 was a lost season for Meyer, as he spent the entire season recovering from surgery to fix a torn labrum in September 2017. While he wasn’t expected to pitch last year, Meyer’s rehab process suffered a couple of notable bumps in the road — he received a cortisone shot in late August to relieve some pain in his shoulder, and he was shut down in early November after another setback. Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets that Meyer won’t be cleared to begin throwing until February, so it could still be some time before we see the 6’9″ right-hander back on the mound.
Selected 23rd overall by the Nationals in the 2011 draft, Meyer was a regular in top-100 prospect rankings in the first half of the decade, though he has yet to convert that promise into production at the big league level. Meyer has a 4.63 ERA over 95 1/3 career innings for the Twins and Angels, showing some ability to miss bats (10.1 K/9) but also struggling with control (5.9 BB/9). Meyer has started 19 of his 22 MLB games, though given his health issues, the Angels could explore using him as a reliever in the future. Meyer’s height and velocity (95.6 mph average fastball) could make him an intimidating weapon out of the bullpen, particularly if the shorter outings can add even more speed to his heater.
Beyond anything, of course, the first step is simply to get Meyer healthy and regularly throwing. The Angels have been looking for both starters and relievers this offseason, and Meyer could be an interesting wild card to address either area if he can overcome his shoulder problems.
Red Sox To Sign Carson Smith To Minors Deal
The Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Carson Smith, as per Zone Coverage’s Brandon Warne (Twitter link). Smith elected free agency after being outrighted off Boston’s 40-man roster following the season, but will now return to the organization in the hopes of finally making a significant impact in the Sox bullpen.
Originally acquired by the Red Sox as part of a four-player trade with the Mariners in December 2015, Smith was tabbed as a potential closer of the future in Boston following his breakout rookie season. Smith posted a 2.31 ERA, 4.18 K/BB rate, 64.8% ground ball rate, and an 11.8 K/9 over 70 innings out of Seattle’s bullpen in 2015, looking like a star reliever in the making.
Unfortunately for Smith and the Red Sox, his tenure in Boston has thus far been marred by injuries. Smith pitched just 9 1/3 total innings in 2016-17 due to Tommy John surgery, and he then managed just 14 1/3 innings in 2018 before suffering a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. The latter injury was caused when Smith tossed his glove in the Boston dugout out of frustration over a rough outing, and it led to some controversy when Smith suggested that overuse might have contributed to his issues (unsurprisingly, manager Alex Cora didn’t agree with this assessment).
That difference of opinion notwithstanding, Smith will now look to get healthy and get his career back on track in Spring Training. From Boston’s perspective, there isn’t much risk in bringing Smith back, and he still some intriguing upside given his stuff and the fact that he is under team control (via arbitration) through the 2020 season. With Joe Kelly now a Dodger and Craig Kimbrel perhaps too expensive for Boston’s liking, the Red Sox have been on the hunt for bullpen help at an affordable price. Smith can hardly be considered a candidate to replace Kimbrel or Kelly at the end of games, of course, though he does give the Sox yet another depth option to consider as they look at augmenting their current bullpen corps (Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree and company) with a more established ninth-inning arm.
NPB’s Yomiuri Giants To Sign Ryan Cook
The Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball have reached a deal with right-hander Ryan Cook, as per a team announcement (via The Japan Times). Cook will earn roughly $1.3MM (or 140 million yen) for the coming season.
Cook chose to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Mariners’ 40-man roster in October. The 31-year-old posted a 5.29 ERA over 17 relief innings for Seattle last season, delivering some strong peripherals (12.2 K/9, 3.29 K/BB rate) but also a bloated 2.1 HR/9 that led to his unimpressive ERA. A 3.48 xFIP and 2.97 SIERA paint a much more favorable impression of Cook’s 2018 performance.
It was Cook’s first taste of Major League action since the 2015 season, when shoulder problems limited him to just 8 2/3 innings for the A’s and Red Sox, and a variety of further injuries kept Cook on the shelf for all of 2016 and 2017. Cook spent much of that stretch recovering from Tommy John surgery, and also had to deal with nerve transposition surgery in his throwing arm, as well as torn hamstring and lat muscles. With this long layoff in mind, Cook’s 94.4 mph average fastball velocity in 2018 was a good sign, as he checked in just a touch below his 94.7 mph career average.
From 2012-14, Cook was a stalwart in the Athletics’ bullpen, posting a 2.60 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.66 K/BB rate over 190 2/3 innings and earning a spot on the 2012 AL All-Star roster. He showed glimpses of this form last season now that he was finally healthy, and Cook will look to further re-establish himself in Japan. It’s likely Cook would have had to settle for a minor league contract with an MLB team, so his deal with Yomiuri gives him a nice payday as well as an opportunity in a brand-new environment.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Jays, Yanks, Bryce, Manny, Mets, Trout
This week in baseball blogs…
- Jays From the Couch (links: 1, 2) talks with Toronto president Mark Shapiro on how the team is grooming its future stars.
- Pinstripe Alley puts the Yankees’ financial austerity in context.
- The K Zone features a piece on Tommy John surgery.
- CheckSwings delves into what MLB might look like if there were no trades, free agency, or waivers.
- STL Hat Trick examines potential 10-year contracts for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
- MLB & Fantasy Baseball Analyzed takes a look at Steamer projections for several players who have signed free-agent contracts this offseason.
- Rising Apple ranks 10 underappreciated free agents the Mets should consider.
- Phillies Nation pours cold water on the chances of Philly trading for Mike Trout.
- The Point of Pittsburgh explains how the Pirates should have used the BAMTech monies to boost 2019 payroll.
- Reviewing The Brew sees Milwaukee as a logical landing spot for Troy Tulowitzki.
- Around the Foghorn searches for effective and affordable free agents the Giants could target.
- Prospect Universe is bullish on the A’s future.
- District on Deck names seven free-agent second basemen the Nationals could pursue.
- East Village Times writes about the possibility of the Padres acquiring Miguel Andujar.
- Statsswipe argues that Andujar’s ability to hit a curve could make him an All-Star.
- Tomahawk Take considers a reunion between the Braves and Jason Heyward.
- Chin Music Baseball has New Year’s resolutions for every team.
- The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2) weighs the pros and cons of the Twins’ Nelson Cruz signing, and regards pitching coach Brent Strom as a key piece to the Astros’ puzzle.
- Call to the Pen (links: 1, 2, 3) names four possible non-Harper additions for the Dodgers, asks if Craig Kimbrel could return to Boston, and wonders if the Phillies will make a big splash in January.
- Everything Bluebirds reacts to the Blue Jays’ signing of Matt Shoemaker.
- Mets Critic opines that the club needs to stop playing corner outfielders in center.
- Pinstriped Prospects explores the state of the Yankees’ farm system.
- The Fro Zone grades some recent free-agent signings.
- Rox Pile explains that the Rockies’ outfield will look different in 2019.
- Foul Territory looks at the history of free agency in baseball.
- Sports Radio 94 WIP calls out the hypocrisy in Hall of Fame voting.
- Around the Bases with Julian Bussells (podcast) discusses the Hall of Fame voting and chats with White Sox pitcher Caleb Frare.
- Future Blue Jays lists under-the-radar Jays prospects to keep an eye on in 2019.
- The 3rd Man In profiles and interviews 2019 draft prospect Zack Thompson.
- A’s Farm runs down the Athletics’ minor league free agent signings.
- Extra Innings UK has an exclusive preview of the Don’t Blink Home Run Derby in Paradise, featuring Lewis Brinson, Touki Toussaint and Bo Bichette.
- Chipalatta shares 10 Christmas wishes for the Astros.
Blue Jays Acquire Clayton Richard
4:54pm: Toronto will pay half of Richard’s $3MM salary, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com suggests.
4:15pm: Both teams have announced the trade. The Blue Jays are also getting cash considerations in the deal.
3:55pm: Richard’s going to Toronto, Nicholson-Smith tweets. The Blue Jays will give up minor leaguer outfielder Connor Panas, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The 25-year-old Panas, a Toronto native whom the Blue Jays chose in the ninth round of the 2015 draft, got his first taste of Double-A action last season and hit .232/.296/.359 with nine home runs in 407 plate appearances.
3:35pm: The Blue Jays are close to acquiring left-hander Clayton Richard from the Padres, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports. Richard has been in limbo since the Padres designated him for assignment on Dec. 20.
The 35-year-old Richard has been a useful starter at times since his major league career began with the White Sox in 2008, but he’s now coming off an ugly season. Over 158 2/3 innings and 27 starts in San Diego, Richard pitched to a 5.33 ERA/4.68 FIP with 6.13 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 before undergoing season-ending left knee surgery in late August. On the bright side, Richard posted an excellent groundball rate (56.8 percent), which has been a staple throughout his time in the majors.
Needless to say, Richard – who’s owed a guaranteed $3MM in 2019, the last season of a two-year contract – wouldn’t be a particularly exciting acquisition for Toronto. If healthy, though, he could eat innings for a retooling Blue Jays team which may have multiple questions in its rotation next season. The Jays look to have four-fifths of their rotation set with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki and the just-signed Matt Shoemaker in the fold. However, Stroman has frequented trade rumors throughout the offseason, Sanchez battled injury and performance issues from 2017-18, and Shoemaker was neither healthy nor especially effective with the Angels over the previous couple years.
Diamondbacks Acquire Robby Scott
The Diamondbacks have acquired left-hander Robby Scott from the Reds for cash, according to an announcement from Cincinnati. The Reds designated Scott for assignment on Dec. 21, ending a brief run with the club that began when it claimed him off waivers from the Red Sox on Dec. 10.
The 29-year-old Scott racked up a solid chunk of innings in Boston in 2017, when he totaled 35 2/3 frames and put up a respectable 3.79 ERA with 7.82 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 42.6 percent groundball rate. Scott only managed a 5.32 FIP that year, though, and was barely a factor last season for the Red Sox’s World Series-winning team, with whom he threw a mere 6 2/3 innings and allowed six earned runs on 10 hits and five walks (with eight strikeouts).
While Scott hasn’t been that successful in the majors, he has recorded a 3.21 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 165 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. Now a member of the Arizona organization, Scott will reunite with general manager Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo, who are both familiar with the hurler from their days with the Boston franchise.