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MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,845 people entered the contest.  Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.

1.  Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)

2.  Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)

8.  A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)

9.  J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)

10.  Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/18

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Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Cardinals announced a slate of minor league signings, including right-hander Mike Hauschild, left-hander Hunter Cervenka, catcher Joe Hudson, catcher Jose Godoy and first baseman/outfielder Rangel Ravelo. Each received an invitation to Major League Spring Training. St. Louis also announced previously reported Spring Training invites for Tommy Layne and Williams Perez, as well as minor league deals without Spring Training invites for righties Harold Arauz and Ramon Santos. Hauschild, 29 in January, has been hit hard in 16 1/3 MLB innings but has a career 4.02 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 437 Triple-A innings (all as a starter). Cervenka posted a 3.53 ERA in 43 1/3 innings between the Braves and Marlins back in 2016 but showed serious control problems along the way and has scarcely pitched in the Majors since. Hudson,27, made a brief big league debut with the Angels in September after a quality showing between their Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. The 24-year-old Godoy and 26-year-old Ravelo are returning to the Cardinals organization. Godoy showed some solid OBP skills in High-A, while Ravelo raked at a .308/.392/.487 pace in 399 PAs with Memphis in his first season with the organization.
  • The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they’ve signed left-hander Kyle Regnault for the 2019 season (link via the Japan Times). Soon to turn 30, Regnault spent his first three professional seasons pitching in indy ball before joining the Mets in 2015. All of his work with affiliated clubs has come in the Mets’ system, and Regnault has a 4.10 ERA with a 130-to-47 K/BB ratio in 109 2/3 innings of Triple-A work. In his first season overseas, Regnault will secure a $400K base salary with the opportunity to earn more via incentives, as well as a $125K signing bonus (hat tip to Yakyudb.com). For a lefty that was on the indy circuit just four years ago, that’s a nice chunk of guaranteed money to bring home, and continued success in NPB would obviously lead to greater earning power.

Indians Acquire Chih-Wei Hu From Rays

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The Indians announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Chih-Wei Hu from the Rays in exchange for minor league infielder Gionti Turner. The 25-year-old Hu brings Cleveland’s 40-man roster count to 36 players, while the deal gives the Rays organization some flexibility in advance of tomorrow’s deadline to protect additional players from the Rule 5 Draft.

Chih-Wei Hu | Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

Hu, 25, made his big league debut with Tampa Bay back in 2017 and, over the past two seasons, has pitched to a 3.52 ERA with a 21-to-7 K/BB ratio in 23 innings of big league relief. He’s averaged 93.2 mph on his heater in that time and generated a solid 11.6 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to a 32.2 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s been a bit homer-prone in his small sample of Major League work.

Tampa Bay initially acquired Hu from the Twins in a 2015 swap that sent Kevin Jepsen from the Rays to the Twins. Minnesota initially signed the Taiwanese-born righty as an amateur free agent back in August 2012. He’s done the entirety of his work in the Majors as a reliever, though the bulk of his minor league career has been spent as a starter. He could give Cleveland some depth in both regards, though given the current state of the Indians’ roster, the clearer path for him to contribute in the big leagues is in a relief capacity. Hu does have a minor league option remaining, so he can be sent to Triple-A Columbus to open the season without being exposed to waivers. In 174 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, he has a 4.07 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.

The 18-year-old Turner had an exceptionally brief tenure as a member of the Indians organization. Cleveland selected him the 27th round of this past summer’s draft, and he went on to appear in 46 games for the club’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona League. He acquitted himself well, hitting .296/.348/.396 with a homer, 10 doubles, two triples and nine steals in 187 plate appearances. Turner spent 261 innings at second base, 103 innings at shortstop and 34 innings in center field during that brief professional debut.

Astros Reportedly Make Offer To Charlie Morton

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The Astros have made an initial offer to bring right-hander Charlie Morton back to Houston, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The dollar amount of the reported offer is yet unclear, though Nightengale does specify that it’s a one-year contract with an option for a second year.

Vague as the terms may still be, it seems reasonable to expect that the total value of the pact of for less than $17.9MM. Houston surprisingly declined to make a qualifying offer at that rate to Morton, so it’d be curious to see them turn around and offer Morton anything north of that sum.

Morton, who turned 35 last week, at one point voiced uncertainty as to whether he planned to continue his playing career beyond the 2018 campaign, but he recently stated that he planned to continue pitching and would “love” to return to the Astros. However, he’s also made clear that he doesn’t plan to keep playing into his late 30s, citing a desire to spend time with his growing family. To that end, Morton suggested to The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan back in April that proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware could be a factor, were he to consider teams outside of Houston. The Phillies and Nationals would most closely meet that criteria.

Whether Morton wants to pitch another two years isn’t certain, but there’s little doubt that he should be able to find a strong multi-year offer on the open market after rapidly elevating his status upon signing with the Astros. Morton’s two-year, $14MM with Houston proved to be a remarkable bargain, as the righty made 55 starts in 2017-18 and pitched to an excellent 3.36 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 49.6 percent ground-ball rate. Perhaps, given the uncertainty about how long he wants to continue his career, a one-year pact with a substantial value and some form of vesting or player option would hold appeal to Morton. However, a guaranteed two-year deal should materialize in free agency if he wishes to lock himself into another couple of years.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Giants reassigned general manager and longtime front office fixture Bobby Evans in order to bring some fresh ideas into the mix after two straight disappointing seasons.  Now, newly-hired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi faces a tall order in streamlining an expensive, veteran-heavy, underachieving roster and helping guide the Giants back to contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[San Francisco Giants Depth Chart | San Francisco Giants Payroll Information]

The top eight names in the “guaranteed contracts” section (everyone except Tony Watson and Pablo Sandoval) are slated to earn approximately $135.84MM in 2019, coming off a season in which the octet generated a combined 8.3 fWAR.  That’s a lower total fWAR than Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Jacob deGrom produced as individuals in 2018, which is indicative of the troubling situation in which San Francisco finds itself heading into this new season.  Between homegrown names that haven’t been producing and high-priced acquisitions that range from underwhelming to disastrous, the Giants simply don’t know what to expect going forward from most of the biggest names on their roster.

Into this situation comes Zaidi, who brings more of an analytically-minded approach to the Giants’ more traditionally “old-school” front office.  Zaidi has experience finding efficiencies while working with payrolls both small (from his time in the Athletics’ front office) and large (as the Dodgers’ GM).  Ideally, the Giants would love to see Zaidi replicate what he did in Los Angeles alongside president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman — cut tens of millions in salary while still reaching the postseason every year.  The Dodgers went from touching the $300MM mark in payroll at the start of Zaidi’s tenure to getting under the luxury tax threshold this past season.

Unlike with the Dodgers, however, Zaidi inherits a Giants team that doesn’t have many polished prospects ready to step into regular roles.  And, while the Dodgers had their share of underperforming big contracts, injury questions weren’t quite as prevalent as they are for the Giants’ priciest assets heading into 2019.

Johnny Cueto, for instance, almost surely won’t pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.  Hip surgery could keep Buster Posey from the Opening Day lineup.  Brandon Belt battled knee problems down the stretch and has a lengthy injury history.  Jeff Samardzija missed much of 2018 with shoulder issues, and Mark Melancon’s two years in San Francisco have been punctuated by multiple trips to the disabled list.  Brandon Crawford dealt with nagging knee problems last year, though he also simply hasn’t hit as much over the last two years as he did from 2014-16.

Madison Bumgarner has had his own share of DL time over the past two seasons, which was certainly one reason why his numbers (3.29 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate over 240 2/3 IP) were a step back from his usual ace standards.  That said, Bumgarner is still easily the most intriguing trade chip/extension candidate the Giants have, and what the team decides to do with the southpaw this offseason may quite possibly determine their approach for the rest of the winter.

If Bumgarner is re-signed to another extension, the Giants will add to their ledger of long-term deals and perhaps signal that they’re aiming to get back into contention right away.  A Bumgarner trade, however, could lead one of two scenarios.  First, the Giants could approach 2019 as a bit of a mini-rebuild, to add young talent and clear some money in order to make a renewed push for 2020.  Secondly, the Giants could deal Bumgarner as part of a rebuild on the fly, adding some MLB-ready pieces that would help them fill some holes immediately.

This is complete speculation on my part, and admittedly dealing Bumgarner without getting at least one blue-chip prospect in return would be a bit of a waste.  But, the Giants could explore moving Bumgarner along with either Belt or Evan Longoria in the same deal, accepting only a moderate return of either mid-range prospects, or perhaps a big league player who could help the Giants at another position (such as maybe a third baseman to replace Longoria).  The Giants are reportedly looking to move Longoria, who struggled in his first season outside of Tampa Bay and is still owed over $73MM through 2022.  As for Belt, he was the most productive of the Giants’ long-term assets, though dealing him would free up first base for some combination of other possibilities: giving a look to prospect Chris Shaw, Posey splitting time between first and catcher, or targeting a potentially underpriced asset in free agency or trade.  Both Belt and Bumgarner have partial no-trade clauses that allow them to block deals to 10 and eight teams, respectively, so it could be a bit tricky finding a willing trade partner for this scenario who isn’t on either player’s no-trade list.

Such a deal would give San Francisco more flexibility with both roster construction and the payroll.  After they (barely) ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold last season, the Giants reset their luxury penalization to zero, and they’ll pay only a first-timer minimum penalty should they surpass the $206MM payroll limit.  So while the team doesn’t necessarily face any huge restraints in regards to spending, getting one big contract off the books is probably a logical step if the team is preparing to make another high-priced addition.

Signing Bryce Harper, of course, would be the biggest such move the Giants could make, though early reports have suggested the club isn’t going to be a major suitor for the 26-year-old free agent.  San Francisco has the resources and the ownership track record to pursue just about any free agent, or to take on a big contract from another team in a trade, though it remains to seen if the Giants will be as aggressive in this regard under Zaidi as they were under the Brian Sabean/Bobby Evans regime.

If we’re mentioning Harper, it’s only fitting that we also at least throw Manny Machado’s name out there.  While Zaidi just a few months removed from bringing Machado to the Dodgers in a trade, a Machado/Giants connection seems unlikely at best.  To make room for Machado at third base or shortstop, San Francisco would have to move either Longoria or Crawford, and neither player has much in the way of immediate trade value thanks to their salaries and lackluster 2018 seasons (plus, Crawford’s contract grants him full no-trade protection).  Eating money to facilitate a Longoria/Crawford trade and also paying $350MM+ for Machado doesn’t seem like a very realistic proposition.

The two corner outfield positions and second base are the most pressing areas of need around the diamond for the Giants.  Barring trades, the other spots will be covered by Longoria at third base, Crawford at shortstop, Belt at first base, defensively-gifted youngster Steven Duggar in center field, and Posey receiving the bulk of playing time behind the plate (while also getting some rest games as a first baseman).  A reunion with veteran backup catcher Nick Hundley has been mentioned as a likely possibility while Posey is on the mend, with youngster Aramis Garcia also in the mix.

Austin Slater, Mac Williamson, Gorkys Hernandez (if he isn’t non-tendered), utilityman Alen Hanson, and Shaw are in the mix for bench duty for perhaps a share of a platoon in left or right field.  For at least one of the two outfield positions, however, the Giants will surely add an established everyday player, either on the trade front or in free agency.  If a record-setting contract for Harper is too rich for the Giants’ blood, other free agent options include Michael Brantley or old friend Andrew McCutchen.  A.J. Pollock is a center fielder by trade, though if he is willing to consider a position change, he and Duggar would be a great defensive pairing in AT&T Park’s expansive outfield (or Pollock could play center himself if Duggar isn’t ready for everyday action).

Marwin Gonzalez’s versatility makes him a good fit on most teams, though he’d be particularly useful to the Giants rotating between the corner outfield spots and second base.  Joe Panik was a replacement-level player (0.1 fWAR) last season, and considering his lack of power, the downturn in his defensive metrics, and injury history — not to mention the glut of options on the second-base market — San Francisco could simply non-tender Panik and seek out a more reliable, cost-efficient, and/or controllable option.  Jed Lowrie might be an interesting player to consider in this regard, as a familiar name to Zaidi from their time in Oakland and a quality player who wouldn’t require too lengthy a contract given his age (35 in April).

At a projected $4.2MM in arbitration, Panik isn’t a bank-breaker to retain, though the Giants could get themselves some extra cover at second base with a multi-position addition like Gonzalez.  Not to say that the next Max Muncy or Chris Taylor is awaiting the Giants, but Zaidi’s Dodgers had a knack for finding those types of hidden-gem utility types.  Looking elsewhere around the bench, Sandoval and Hanson line up as the utility options, and the Giants will have to sort through the aforementioned outfield candidates to figure out their backup situation.  Williamson and Hernandez are both out of options, which could give them a leg up on the other possibilities.

San Francisco’s bullpen turned in a quietly solid year in 2018, headlined by Watson’s excellent year and Will Smith posting some strong numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery.  Melancon also pitched well after making his season debut in June, and the Giants are hopeful that he can reclaim his old closer’s job and finally start to provide a quality return on that big contract.  I’d guess the Giants might add another depth arm or two, though relief pitching doesn’t appear to be a major priority for the team this winter.

Losing Cueto is a big hit to the Giants’ rotation, though the team did find some unexpected starting help from rookies Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez last season.  Those two 26-year-old arms are penciled into a starting five that features a lot of uncertainty, given Bumgarner’s trade situation, Samardzija’s health, and Chris Stratton’s inconsistency.  Ty Blach and minor league righties Shaun Anderson and Tyler Beede could also fight for consideration in Spring Training, though Beede will have to strongly rebound from significant struggles at both Triple-A and in a brief big league cameo.

It would theoretically help the Giants quite a bit to add another front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher who could both contribute in 2019 and also anchor the starting staff in the future, should Bumgarner depart in free agency or be shipped out in a trade.  Top free agents like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi could all fit the model as a long-term answer, or a shorter-term solution like J.A. Happ could also be considered.  The Giants are one of several teams who have scouted Yusei Kikuchi and the organization’s interest in the Japanese left-hander dates back years, so San Francisco will certainly be a player if Kikuchi is posted as expected.

While the Giants could shop at the high end of the market, it’s worth noting that the team hasn’t had much luck on expensive pitching contracts in recent years, between the Cueto and Samardzija signings and Matt Cain’s extension.  AT&T Park’s pitcher-friendly reputation make it a popular destination for relatively inexpensive veterans looking for a rebound year, so the Giants could pursue such arms in the hope of finding the next Derek Holland.  The southpaw revived his career in San Francisco last season, posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.52 K/BB rate over 171 1/3 innings after signing a minor league contract that came with just a $1.5MM base salary.  Holland is sure to land more in his latest trip through free agency, though his price tag won’t be too high for the Giants to consider a reunion.

There’s really no shortage of options facing Zaidi, who is open to any and all possibilities when it comes to getting the Giants on track as quickly as possible.  A total rebuild doesn’t appear to be on the table this winter, nor does a major spending spree, but pretty much anything in between seems to be under consideration.  The Giants could end up being as active and creative of any team this offseason, though it remains to be seen if enough can be done to get the club turned around in time to be a factor in what should be a competitive NL West in 2019.

AL East Notes: Sale, Swihart, Yankees, Chang, Blue Jays

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • Chris Sale is only under contract through the 2019 season, and his potential future in Boston “could be the key to the entire offseason” for the Red Sox, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes.  The Sox are sure to discuss an extension with Sale this winter, though if they don’t feel the southpaw will be staying beyond the coming season (or the team is wary of spending big money on Sale over the long term), then Mastrodonato believes landing another frontline pitcher will become an immediate priority.  If the Red Sox are able to extend Sale or believe they’ll be able to re-sign him next offseason, starting pitching likely won’t be a pressing priority this winter.  In my opinion, I’d guess the Red Sox would pursue some type of controllable starter regardless of what happens with Sale, given that Rick Porcello will also be a free agent next winter and Eduardo Rodriguez’s injury history makes him a bit of a question mark for 2019.
  • Also from Mastrodonato’s piece, he notes that the Red Sox will be bringing Blake Swihart to Spring Training as a catcher.  With Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon ahead of Swihart on the catching depth chart, the team experimented with Swihart as a utility player last season in an attempt to get him into the lineup, with unremarkable results.  While Swihart will continue to get some work at multiple positions, his trade value would be maximized if he could stick behind the plate.  Swihart has been the focus of trade rumors for well over a year, and the Red Sox were known to have a very high asking price in talks with other teams as of last May.  Those demands seemed high at the time, given Swihart’s struggles to break through as a Major League player, and he did little to raise his stock over the rest of the season.
  • The Yankees “pushed hard” to acquire infield prospect Yu Chang from the Indians when the two teams were discussing the Andrew Miller trade in the summer of 2016, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  Chang has made steady progress since, with MLB.com currently ranking him as the sixth-best prospect in the Tribe’s system following a .256/.330/.411 performance over 518 PA at Triple-A last season.  It isn’t known if New York still has Chang on its radar, though with the Yankees recently showing interest in trading for one of Cleveland’s top starters, Chang could become a target again if the two clubs expand talks into a multi-player trade.  Pluto also notes that other teams have called the Indians about Chang in trade discussions.
  • Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays are one of several teams that face losing at least one player, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  With newly-acquired Tyler Thornton requiring Rule 5 protection, Toronto currently has 36 players on its 40-man, with Davidi figuring that pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, and Yennsy Diaz will account for three of the four open spots.  This leaves multiple Rule 5-eligible prospects vying for just one roster spot, though the Jays could also create more space with trades or releases before Tuesday’s deadline.  Yangervis Solarte is a likely non-tender candidate, for instance, and there has been speculation has the Jays could part ways with former top prospect Dalton Pompey, who is out of options and seemingly buried on Toronto’s depth chart.  Davidi’s piece also contains a broader overview of the challenges that teams face when they have a surplus of minor league talent at one or more positions, as a club can risk losing or overlooking someone simply due to lack of playing time, only to see that player blossom elsewhere.

International Transactions: 11/18/18

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Here’s the roundup of some familiar North American names heading to play ball overseas…

  • The KT Wiz of the Korean Baseball Organization has announced the signing of right-hander Raul Alcantara, according to San Kang of Sports Dong-A (hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz).  The contract will pay Alcantara $650K for the coming KBO season.  The righty was outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster at the end of Spring Training, and then posted a 5.29 ERA, 5.7 K/9, and 3.79 K/BB rate over 83 1/3 innings for Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate, working as a starter in 10 of his 32 games.  Over 46 1/3 IP for the A’s at the big league level in 2016-17, Alcantara managed just a 7.19 ERA, and he allowed a whopping 14 homers over that limited stretch.
  • In other news from the KBO, the Kia Tigers announced that they are working on a contract with outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker (hat tip to Dan Kurtz once again), though a deal is not yet official.  Hazelbaker began the 2018 season as a member of the Diamondbacks organization before a pair of trades sent him to the Rays and then to the Twins, though he spend the entire season at the Triple-A level, hitting only .204/.298/.385 over 356 combined PA.  The 31-year-old Hazelbaker posted a much better batting line in his brief exposure to Major League pitching in 2016-17, hitting .258/.327/.500 over 285 career plate appearances for the Cardinals and D’Backs.  Originally a fourth-round pick for the Red Sox in 2009, Hazelbaker has bounced around six teams in his pro career and will now look for a change of scenery in South Korea.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the last week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

  • A 10-9 win-loss record didn’t prevent Jacob deGrom from winning the NL Cy Young Award, though that record could impact what the Mets ace will earn in arbitration this winter.  Matt Swartz, creator of MLBTR’s arbitration model, profiles deGrom’s unique situation in the first Arbitration Breakdown piece of the 2018-19 offseason, noting that deGrom could end up being an important precedent for other pitchers in future arbitration cases.
  • Speaking of arbitration, Tim Dierkes presents MLBTR’s annual list of potential non-tender candidates, listing 51 arb-eligible players whose teams could simply not tender them new contracts on the November 30th deadline.  These players could also be candidates to be traded or released before November 30 — since Tim published his list, we’ve already seen one name (Justin Bour, formerly of the Phillies) hit the waiver wire.
  • Speaking of Phillies first basemen, Carlos Santana is rumored to be on the trade market less than a year after signing in Philadelphia, as the team is eager to end the Rhys Hoskins-as-an-outfielder experiment.  Tim takes a look at some teams that could possibly fit as trade partners for the Phillies in finding a new spot for the veteran slugger.
  • Trading Santana is just one of many rumored moves in what is expected to be a very busy offseason for the Phillies.  With the team linked to just about every big free agent and trade target on the market, the question has to be asked, how much do the Phillies have to spend on these acquisitions?  In his first “Projecting Payrolls” piece for MLBTR, Rob Huff breaks down the Phillies’ projected payroll space for the coming offseason, based on such factors as their past spending habits, future commitments, team needs, and more.
  • Our preview of each team’s winter plans continued with seven new entries in the Offseason Outlook series.  This week’s featured teams: the Mariners, Mets (both by Connor Byrne), Pirates, Nationals (both by Jeff Todd). Padres (by Jason Martinez), Yankees (by Steve Adams), and Red Sox (by Mark Polishuk).
  • Patrick Corbin is projected to land the biggest contract of any free agent starting pitcher, leading Ty Bradley to ask MLBTR’s readers which team will end up signing the star left-hander.  The choice was clear, as over 55% of readers polled believe Corbin will return to his home state to sign with the Yankees.
  • We’ll wrap up this Phillies-centric week of original content with another poll, this one from Connor inquiring whether or not Philadelphia will wind up with Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper when the dust settles this winter.  Interestingly, 32.67% of readers polled believe neither player will be a Phillie on Opening Day, with 27.34% predicting the Phillies will sign Harper and 25.77% calling a Machado signing.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: FAs, Yanks’ SP Pursuit, Giants, D-backs, Mets

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Nathan Eovaldi Drawing Widespread Interest

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4:36pm: Eovaldi has received interest from “everybody and their mother,” a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, “truly serious suitors” won’t begin to stand out until after Thanksgiving, Bradford hears. The Yankees are among those who will at least consider Eovaldi, per Bradford.

8:59am: Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.

Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.

After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”

Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.

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