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Mariners Acquire Ricardo Sanchez

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The Mariners have acquired left-hander Ricardo Sanchez from the Braves, tweets Greg Johns of MLB.com. They’ll send cash to Atlanta in exchange for the 21-year-old southpaw, who was designated for assignment two days ago.

Sanchez ascended to the Double-A level for the first time in 2018, though he managed just a 4.06 ERA a 44-to-24 K/BB ratio in 57 1/3 innings in his first action at that level. In parts of five minor league seasons, Sanchez has a 4.48 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. Sanchez rated 26th among Braves farmhands, per Jonathan Mayo, Jim Callis and Mike Rosenbaum of MLB.com. Their free report on Sanchez praised the lefty’s fastball, curveball and changeup — all of which have a chance to be average or better offerings. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen has previously called him a potential No. 4 starter but noted that his command needs to take a notable step forward to realize that upside.

Dodgers Add Chris Gimenez To Coaching Staff

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The Dodgers announced their finalized coaching staff Wednesday, including the hiring of catcher Chris Gimenez as their new “game planning coach.” That appointment, it seems, will bring a 10-year Major League career to a close for Gimenez. The affable backstop split the 2018 season between the Cubs and Twins and finished out the ’18 season as a backup option for Minnesota.

In parts of 10 seasons, Gimenez appeared in 386 Major League games and tallied 1067 plate appearances between the Indians, Twins, Mariners, Rays, Rangers and Cubs. While the bulk of Gimenez’s work came behind the plate, he was versatile enough to spend time at first base, in the outfield corners and, more briefly at third base. Beyond that, Gimenez took the ball for 11 relief appearances in his career — the majority of which came in blowout settings. In all, he was a .218/.307/.344 hitter whose charismatic nature made him a clubhouse favorite virtually anywhere he landed.

As previously reported, the Dodgers’ coaching staff will feature new third-base coach Dino Ebel and first-year hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc. The other new addition to the big league staff will be assistant hitting coach Aaron Bates, who is entering his fifth season with the organization and will be promoted after working as a hitting coach in the minor leagues. Bates, a former first baseman, appeared in five MLB games with the 2009 Red Sox and spent parts of eight seasons playing in the minor leagues as well.

Manager Dave Roberts, bench coach Bob Geren, pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, hitting strategist Brant Brown, first base coach George Lombard and bullpen coach Mark Prior will all return to the coaching staff in the same roles they occupied last season.

Nationals, Yankees, Phillies Meet With Patrick Corbin

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4:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that Corbin has also met with the Nationals in Washington, D.C. this week. It’s not clear if Corbin has met with any other clubs on what looks to be a tour of some east-coast contenders with interest in the lefty. Like the Phillies and Yankees, the Nats have some obvious needs in the rotation. At present, the Nats have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark are the top three options on the team’s depth chart, with young hurlers Joe Ross (returning from Tommy John surgery) and Erick Fedde among the options for the final two rotation spots.

Nov. 28, 3:25pm: Following yesterday’s meeting with the Phillies, Corbin is headed to New York to meet with Yankees officials, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). There’s no meeting set between Corbin and the Mets while his camp is in New York, Sherman adds.

A meeting between the Yankees and Corbin was all but a foregone conclusion. The Yanks are known to be eyeing high-end rotation help even after acquiring James Paxton, and Corbin stands out as the best starter on the market. Beyond that, the two sides have been linked for the better part of a year; reports indicated that the Yankees had interest in acquiring Corbin last year and last offseason, and he’s gone on record to indicate that he grew up a Yankee fan. None of that makes Corbin to the Bronx a fait accompli, but it’d certainly be a surprise if the Yanks weren’t firmly in the mix for Corbin until the very end.

Nov. 27: The Phillies, expected to be one of the most active teams in free agency, are meeting with left-hander Patrick Corbin at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia today, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Corbin is “high on [the] Phillies’ wish list,” Salisbury adds, though certainly one in-person visit doesn’t indicate that there’s anything close to fruition between the two sides.

Corbin, 29, is the consensus top starter on the free-agent market after racking up 200 innings of 3.15 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 48.5 percent ground-ball rate. No qualified starter in baseball topped Corbin in terms of opponents’ chase rate (38 percent), and only Max Scherzer bested Corbin’s 15.6 percent swinging-strike rate. Fielding-independent metrics actually liked Corbin more than his ERA (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA).

[Related: Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Outlook | Philadelphia Phillies depth chart]

As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff recently explored, the Phillies have enormous payroll flexibility this offseason — as much as nearly any team in the Majors — which should allow them to pursue multiple top-tier free agents. Majority owner John Middleton recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he has every expectation of spending aggressively this winter, playfully adding that the Phillies might “even be even a little stupid about it.”

Corbin would improve any pitching staff in baseball, and he’d give the Phillies a dynamic one-two punch atop the rotation in conjunction with emerging ace Aaron Nola. Teamed with Jake Arrieta and some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, Jerad Eickhoff and Enyel De Los Santos, that top three would give the Phillies a formidable and, as importantly, deep stock of arms from which to draw as the team looks to redeem itself in the wake of a catastrophic late-season collapse. Of course, adding an arm of Corbin’s caliber would also make it a bit easier to stomach trading from that reservoir of younger arms in order to address other areas on the roster. And while MLBTR projected Corbin to top $20MM annually over a six-year term, the Phillies’ wide-open payroll slate would still leave them ample room to add him and one of the top two free agents on the market; the Phils have been prominently linked to both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the early stages of free agency.

Cubs Sign Kyle Ryan To Major League Deal

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3:53pm: The Cubs have announced the signing.

3:31pm: The Cubs have agreed to a Major League contract with free-agent left-hander Kyle Ryan, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (on Twitter). The 27-year-old southpaw, who is represented by Frontline, spent the 2014-17 seasons with the Tigers and was with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2018.

Ryan amassed 128 innings of Major League experience in his four-year run with the Tigers, working to a 3.87 ERA with 4.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9 and a strong 54 percent ground-ball rate. Ryan didn’t excel against either lefties or righties but was similarly effective against both (.725 OPS against righties, .728 for lefties). He’s averaged just 88.9 mph on his fastball in the Majors and managed only a 7.9 percent swinging-strike rate, however.

This past season with the Cubs’ affiliate in Iowa, Ryan thrived in a bullpen role. Through 66 innings, he put together a 2.86 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9 and a whopping 61 percent ground-ball rate. The Chicago organization presently has Mike Montgomery, Brian Duensing and Randy Rosario as lefty relief options, but Ryan will add to that mix in affordable fashion. Though Ryan has seen action in parts of four big league seasons, the up-and-down nature of his time with the Tigers led him to accrue just under two years of MLB service time. As such, he could be controlled for another five seasons, though he’d be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player next winter if he finishes out the season on the 40-man roster.

Dodgers Acquire Adam McCreery, Designate Pat Venditte

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The Dodgers announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired left-hander Adam McCreery from the Braves in exchange for cash. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, switch-pitcher Pat Venditte was designated for assignment.

McCreery, who’ll turn 26 on New Year’s Eve, made his big league debut in 2018, though he appeared in just one game and tossed just one inning. He spent the bulk of the season with the Braves’ Double-A affiliate but also pitched in eight games for their Triple-A club. In all, his minor league work resulted in a 3.62 ERA with 11.7 K/9 but a troubling 6.1 BB/9 mark. McCreery has regularly topped 60 percent with his ground-ball rate and has long racked up strikeouts at an impressive level, but the control issues he battled in 2018 were nothing new for him; McCreery has averaged 5.7 walks per nine innings pitched in his career. Atlanta designated him for assignment earlier this week to open a roster spot for Brian McCann.

Venditte, 33, pitched well in 14 innings with the Dodgers in 2018, compiling a 2.57 ERA with nine strikeouts against three walks in that small sample of work. As the game’s lone ambidextrous pitcher, Venditte is somewhat of an anomaly, but he’s also been extraordinarily effective in his career against fellow lefties; same-handed opponents have posted an abysmal .186/.230/.354 slash against Venditte in a total of 122 MLB plate appearances.

Cubs Acquire Ronald Torreyes

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The Cubs have acquired recently designated infielder Ronald Torreyes in a swap with the Yankees, per an announcement. Cash or a player to be named later will head to New York in return.

Torreyes, 26, makes his way back to an organization that once had him as a minor-leaguer. (He originally came over in this swap and departed in this one, with numerous trades and claims coming thereafter.) If he can hang onto his 40-man spot, or otherwise remains with the Cubs at the start of camp next spring, he’ll presumably compete for a bench job.

With the move, the Cubs have added a player who’s capable of handling just about any defensive position but hasn’t hit much in the big leagues. In 614 career plate appearances, he’s slashing just .281/.310/.375 with four home runs and four steals.

These sorts of moves on the margins of the 40-man roster don’t always mean much, but it’s reasonably notable to see the Cubs snag a shortstop-capable reserve. After all, the organization is facing at least a partial deadline to make a decision on Addison Russell in the coming days. As the non-tender deadline looms, it’s still not clear what course the club will take.

Projecting Payrolls: Milwaukee Brewers

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As we kick off the ninth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we examine a club whose rebuild exploded in 2018, propelling them to a surprising division championship and baseball’s final four: the Milwaukee Brewers.

Team Leadership

As many longtime baseball fans know, the predecessor to current Commissioner Rob Manfred, Bud Selig, spent 28 years as owner of the Brewers franchise prior to ascending to the commissioner gig. Formed in 1969, the franchise spent one disastrous season in the Pacific Northwest as the Seattle Pilots before Selig purchased the team out of bankruptcy and moved them to Milwaukee. Selig’s daughter, Wendy, became the team owner in 1998 when Selig became the full-time commissioner. In September 2004, Wendy sold the team to businessman Mark Attanasio, the club’s current owner. After making just two playoff appearances in the 36 years from 1969-04, the team has made three postseason trips during Attanasio’s ownership, including two trips to the National League Championship Series in 2011 and 2018.

The team’s front office is headed by general manager David Stearns, who took the job in September 2015 at age 30. The franchise has enjoyed tremendous growth under Stearns, winning 68 games before he arrived in 2015, then 73, 86, and finally 96 in the three seasons that followed. Last winter’s acquisitions of Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, and Most Valuable Player Christian Yelich paved the way for greatness in Milwaukee.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Brewers, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. For the Brewers, this time frame perfectly covers Attansio’s ownership tenure. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Attanasio inherited some bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls, but quickly increased spending in a big way upon taking over the club. Spending has continued on a relatively clean trajectory without any significant increases.

2016-17 stick out for the opposite reason as spending cratered while Stearns rebuilt the franchise. When the club showed significant (and somewhat unexpected) progress in 2017, Attanasio OK’d a return to something close to pre-rebuild spending levels.

The above chart conveys team spending pretty well as the Brewers haven’t endeavored on significant international acquisitions, either via international amateur bonuses or posting fees for negotiating rights with foreign professionals, and the club has never come close to luxury tax territory.

Future Liabilities

For a small market team, the Brewers have committed a good fit of payroll space moving forward.

Braun has long been the face of the franchise, though surely he ceded a good bit of that status to the stars that follow him on the team’s payroll chart, Cain and Yelich. Braun will receive $1.8 million per year from 2022-31 in deferred salary, but that amount won’t handcuff the team now or in the future.

The Yelich deal provides some of the greatest value of any contract in all of Major League Baseball. That should help keep the Brewers competitive given the immensity of their savings over Yelich’s market value.

The remaining commitments are all quite safe as the team has only $1.5 million guaranteed beyond 2019 for Thames, Chacin, Anderson, Jeffress, and Albers combined. Thames, Anderson, and Jeffress are all controllable further via bargain-rate club options.

While the guarantees feature much of the Brewers core, the team’s arbitration-eligible players include numerous contributors, a couple of them essential to the team’s renaissance. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

The Brewers feature numerous non-tender candidates. The biggest decision involves Schoop, a 27-year-old second baseman who starred for the Orioles in 2017 with average on-base skills and 32 long balls on the heels of a 25-homer season in 2016. Schoop’s offense cratered in 2018 as his BABIP dropped to .261 after he posted a composite BABIP of .319 from 2015-17. Schoop presumably had a chance to play his way into a big payday with the Brew Crew, but a putrid .202/.246/.331 batting line after his acquisition likely sealed his fate as a non-tender, especially given the presence of near-Major League-ready stud prospect Keston Hiura and fully-Major League-ready prospect Mauricio Dubon, despite his knee injury. The decisions on Kratz, Perez, Jennings, and Saladino are comparatively much less impactful to the budget, even for a team with a smaller spending capability such as Milwaukee. Kratz in particular was one of the great stories of the 2018 postseason. As it turns out, despite the presence of solid prospect Jacob Nottingham ready for a meaningful role and Pina around (discussed below), the team agreed to a $1.2 million deal to avoid arbitration, less than the $1.7 million for which Kratz was projected but a salary figure at which he has a much better chance to stick around.

On the other hand, many of the other names in the arbitration table are of the impact variety. Shaw has proven to be the team’s third-best regular, solidifying the third base spot. Knebel forms an elite bullpen triumvirate with Jeffress and fireballing lefty Josh Hader. Guerra provided 141 roughly average innings in 2018. Santana regressed markedly in 2018, but there’s still significant power in his bat and, if nothing else, he provides a strong bench bat at a cheap rate. Pina is a strong defensive catcher with a bit of power on a bargain deal.

Nelson merits separate mention. He missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury, but that came on the heels of him making an ace turn in 2017. If Nelson returns at something close to his pre-injury form, the Brewers will enjoy a marquee addition for just $3.7 million. The rich keep getting richer.

Davies merits his own paragraph for largely the same reason. He compiled 5.3 WAR across 2016-17 before being felled by a shoulder injury that cost him most of 2018 and sapped his effectiveness when he did pitch. Nevertheless, Davies is yet another cheap rotation option.

Milwaukee is brimming with cheap, controllable talent that should help them compete into the next decade.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Following the season, Stearns hinted that spending won’t increase in 2019 to nearly the extent that it did prior to 2018. That doesn’t qualify as much of a surprise given the bare-bones payroll employed in 2017 and the competitive number utilized in 2018. Stearns called a repeat offseason “unrealistic” at the beginning of November.

It doesn’t seem as if management is expecting a huge influx of cash, at least not publicly.

Are the Brewers a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

No.

Not in the Milwaukee market. Not with bottom-five payrolls every year. Not with so many big-market clubs competing to sign Harper and Machado.

Milwaukee isn’t going to be in these conversations.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

This is a really important consideration for the Brewers. With so many significant players entering arbitration, they need to find a bit more cash to keep this core together for the coming years or Stearns will need to be especially creative in moving the right arbitration-eligible starting-caliber players for cheaper reinforcements.

Even assuming that the Brewers take the most aggressive non-tender approach that is plausible, cutting ties with Schoop, Perez, Jennings, and Saladino, the team would enter the offseason with $95.1 million committed to the roster, $4.1 million more than last year’s Opening Day payroll. Making any additions will require Stearns to expend some currency.

According to MLB.com, the team’s top seven prospects and 10 of the top 11 are position players. If the club makes a big expenditure, expect to see them focus on pitching.

Given where Milwaukee is on the win curve and how seriously they curbed spending while rebuilding, it’s reasonable to expect Attanasio to authorize a new franchise-high Opening Day payroll. But by how much? I’ll guess that payroll increases enough for everyone to notice but not so much that it stuns the baseball world.

With the projected payroll space below and an entirely right-handed rotation, don’t be surprised if Milwaukee makes a play for a free agent starter like J.A. Happ. If payroll is a bit tighter than expected, perhaps Wade Miley or a reunion with Gio Gonzalez make more sense.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $110 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $14.9 million

Agency Changes: Mercer, Minter, Enlow

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Let’s check in on the latest agency movement from around the game …

  • As he hits the open market, veteran shortstop Jordy Mercer will be represented by the Boras Corporation, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). At 32 years of age, the long-time Pirates stalwart figures to find interest mostly as a reserve. Mercer has failed to turn in more than a 90 wRC+ in any of the past four seasons and grades out as an average (or below-average) defender up the middle, so he seems destined for utility status. Of course, that could still change if a second-division club likes him and has a clear need.
  • High-end young Braves reliever A.J. Minter will henceforth be represented by Excel Sports Manager, also via Murray (via Twitter). Though he only just turned in his first full MLB season, and won’t reach arbitration until 2021, Minter is already building a case for a big eventual run through the arb process. The hard-throwing southpaw picked up 15 saves and a dozen holds while pitching to a 3.23 ERA in 61 1/3 frames.
  • Twins prospect Blayne Enlow is now with the Wasseman Media Group, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The 19-year-old hasn’t yet moved past the Class A level, so he has a long ways to go until his new reps are negotiating MLB contracts. But the recent third-round pick is generally tabbed as one of the organization’s top ten prospects.
  • As ever, you can keep up with current representation using MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

After the first year of arbitration, it is typical for arbitration salaries to be rewarded as raises on top of previous year’s salaries, based on platform year performances. That sets Mookie Betts up for quite a hefty salary in 2019, since he nearly had a record high $10.5 million salary last year and had quite an accomplished 2018 campaign.

Mookie Betts won the MVP Award with a .346 average and 32 home runs. Batting out of the leadoff spot, he only had 80 RBI, but entering arbitration with the MVP Award, my model projects him to get an $8.2 million raise and earn $18.7 million. That would easily set a record for second time eligible salaries (Ryan Howard got $15 million way back in 2009), but would fall short of the record raise for second time eligible players. Bryce Harper set the latter mark in 2017 with $8.63 million riase. Harper’s case was atypical, though, because it came following a two-year deal. Other than that, Betts is projected for the largest raise ever—which does make sense following an MVP season.

In the last decade, only two players have entered their second year of arbitration coming off an MVP season—Josh Donaldson in 2016 and Josh Hamilton way back in 2011. Not only is Hamilton a stale comp at this point, but both received multi-year deals that might make them less likely to be used as comparables. While Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise would therefore not typically be a useful comparable, both he and the Blue Jays filed numbers in a tight band ($7.05 million and $7.5 million) that were also quite close to the actual result. Given that the comp is a few years out of date, it seems reasonable for Betts to argue that the Donaldson salary point represents a clear floor. Since Donaldson hit .297 with 41 HR and 123 RBI, his performance was more power-centric. But it certainly suggests roughly an $8 million raise for a reigning MVP is close to the right price.

Betts also won the batting title, which also calls back to Charlie Blackmon and Dee Gordon in recent years. The latter had only four home runs in 2015, so he is a weak comparable. Blackmon is a little stronger since his 2016 numbers — .324/29/82 — delivered some of the punch that Betts did at .346/32/80. That earned him a $3.8 million raise, which was actually well shy of what the model predicted. If there’s any added boost for the batting title, then, it’s tough to gauge.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox can certainly try to point to the Blackmon comp if they want to hold Betts’ salary down, but the Donaldson raise seems like a more compelling precedent since he won the MVP Award. And it probably does not hurt Betts’s negotiating position that he scored a major win over the Sox last year in a hearing. All things considered, I suspect Betts will get a record raise and earn quite close to his 2019 projection.

Projecting Payrolls: Boston Red Sox

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As we kick off the seventh installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we visit with the other Sox and reigning champions: the Boston Red Sox.

Team Leadership

The most recent significant ownership change for the Red Sox saw John Henry, Tom Werner, and the New York Times (yes, that New York Times) purchase the club from the JRY Trust, established following the 1992 death of team owner Jean Yawkey, the widow of Tom Yawkey. The Times sold its interest in two separate sales in 2011 and 2012, leaving Henry and Werner as the primary owners and Henry alone as the face of ownership.

The baseball operations department underwent a massive shakeup late in the 2015 season with longtime contender builder Dave Dombrowski joining the fold as President of Baseball Operations with former general manager Ben Cherington stepping aside in a corresponding move. Dombrowski had previously assembled pennant winners in Miami (1997) and Detroit (2006, 2012) before his arrival in Beantown. Over his three seasons, the Red Sox have averaged 98 wins per year, recording at least 93 victories each season.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Red Sox, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

As a major franchise playing in a major city, it comes as no surprise that the Red Sox have spent and spent big year after year.

While Red Sox spending has always been significant, it took a notable jump following the only Yankees World Series win of the past 15 years as the 2010 Boston payroll increased a little over 38 percent from 2009. Since then, the Red Sox have remained near the top echelon of spenders.

That changed in 2018 as Boston blew away the competition financially, finishing the year as the only American League team to pay the luxury tax. The Red Sox made approximately $22 million in luxury tax payments from 2005-17, but they pushed the envelope in 2018, incurring a tax bill of at least $12.7 million and possibly more depending on the final calculation.

International spending has also been a hallmark of the franchise, as was blowing past slot recommendations for draft picks prior to the new rules that severely disincentivized the action. The Red Sox were responsible for arguably the most famous example of overspending international bonus pools under the previous system, throwing a $31.5 million bonus to Yoan Moncada, complete with a corresponding $31.5 million tax payment in February 2015.

The Red Sox also allocated a massive sum to the posting fee paid of $51,111,111.11 to the Seibu Lions in advance of the 2007 season for the rights to negotiate with starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Needless to say, Major League payroll has comprised only a significant portion of team spending, hardly the entirety of it.

Future Liabilities

Unlike some other teams in this series to date, the Red Sox have significant present and future guaranteed liabilities. Here are the guaranteed future dollars with club options highlighted in peach and the opt-out clause for J.D. Martinez that follows the 2019 season shown in light blue.

There is a lot to digest here.

The remaining four years and $127 million owed to David Price naturally jumps out. After a strong debut season, Price hasn’t delivered the ace-level production that the team hoped for when they signed him, but Red Sox fans enjoyed watching Price hoist the World Series trophy this fall after 26 solid postseason innings. He’s hardly an albatross, even if his contract doesn’t offer value at this point.

After a superstar offensive season, Martinez’s contract appears increasingly likely to be a two-year, $50 million deal instead of a five-year, $110 million pact as was guaranteed. If his 2019 is half as successful as his 2018, Martinez will opt out of the deal and pocket the $2.5 million buyout that comes along with the decision to do so. In the meantime, he’ll serve as an essential middle-of-the-order bat for the defending champions.

The remaining multi-year commitments go to players unlikely to help the next championship team in Boston. Pedroia has been a mainstay, but knee injuries may very well render him unable to return to form especially at 35. 2017 indicated that Vazquez had emerged as a defensive force with a palatable, if below average, offensive game at 27. 2018 indicated that 2017 was a mirage. It remains to be seen what value, if any, Boston will milk out of the remainder of Vazquez’s deal.

The remaining current players are all on one-year deals and they all figure to play a starting-level role for the team in 2018. Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender heading toward a record-breaking contract, Porcello won the award himself in 2016, and Moreland, Pearce, and Nunez all figure to get north of 400 plate appearances next year. The club features a ton of walk-year talent.

Of course, the future commitments to players aren’t limited to current Red Sox players by a long stretch. The team owes a staggering $47.5 million to released free agent flop Sandoval and Triple-A 30-year-old Castillo. Perhaps the club will find a taker for Castillo if he comes along with approximately $22 million, though it’s worth noting that he does not count against the Red Sox luxury tax payroll as long as he remains off of the team’s 40-man roster.

Finally, former stars Ramirez and Pedroia will receive just over $34 million between them into the middle of the next decade, a sum that is not insignificant but also doesn’t figure to move the needle much for the deep pockets in Boston. Those amounts have already been accounted for in regards to the luxury tax, so they won’t hurt Boston when making that calculation.

While the guarantees feature plenty of star power, there is no shortage of elite talent to be found among the arbitration eligible Red Sox. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley have long formed a young core for the club. Bradley’s bat has been below average the last two seasons, but Betts and Bogaerts have both regularly combined strong offense and defense to be impact players. With two years of control remaining on Betts and Bradley and one on Bogaerts, the team will likely continue extension talks.  Obviously they have not found common ground to date, and it’s not known whether the Red Sox will succeed in locking down any of the three.

Rodriguez has grown into an above-average starting pitcher, albeit one who routinely misses time with injury issues. He figures to hold a rotation job through the coming years.

The remaining arbitration eligible Red Sox primarily serve to complement the bevy of ultra-talented players listed above.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Perhaps unsurprisingly, not much to date. They’ve been busy winning the World Series and celebrating their newest championship. The most noteworthy disclosure came from Henry following the season when he noted that the team won’t push their payroll to the top luxury tax penalties every season, calling out 2018 as an exception where adding the missing piece was worth the extra expenditure.

Are the Red Sox a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Well this is a tricky one. The Red Sox are obviously massive spenders who routinely find themselves with one of the top five payrolls in the game. Generally speaking, that is expected to be a prerequisite for entering the fray for Harper and/or Machado.

However, Boston has already committed major dollars to its championship core — a core that will only get more expensive in the next two years — and it would seemingly require major roster reconstruction to fit either young star into their group.  In the case of Machado, there would also have to be a resolution of the conflict dating back to his April 2017 takeout slide of Pedroia.

Then again, it’s the Boston Red Sox. They shouldn’t be fully counted out for any big-time talent.

In the end, I’ll say that they’re not players for Harper or Machado. It’s too tough to see the math work from my vantage point.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

More than for any other team that we have examined to date, the luxury tax is going to be a major factor for the Red Sox this winter. If the team makes no additional moves, they’ll have a cash payroll of $214.2 million and a luxury tax payroll of $216.0 million, assuming that Castillo remains off of the 40-man roster and, thus, doesn’t count against their tax payroll. With the luxury tax line sitting at $206 million, it’s awfully difficult to see how Boston gets under the line without sacrificing a key contributor or two. That’s no way to defend a title.

Instead, I suspect that the Red Sox will try to minimize their tax bill and ensure that they avoid hitting the $246 million threshold at which point their top draft pick is dropped 10 spots. It seems overwhelmingly likely that they will incur the 12 percent surtax for exceeding $226 million in luxury tax payroll, but, again, I expect that they will avoid the 42.5 percent surtax for exceeding $246 million in luxury tax payroll.

Provided that they plan to leave a little space for in-season acquisitions, let’s peg them at a spending level that enables the club to replace Craig Kimbrel at the back of the bullpen without breaking the bank.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $230 million cash ($232 million luxury tax)

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $15.8 million

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