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The Pirates have officially landed righty Keone Kela from the Rangers, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Lefty Taylor Hearn is one of the players in the deal, the Rangers announced. The other remains a player to be named later.
Kela, 25, has turned in a solid season to this point while functioning as the closer in Texas. He’ll presumably slot into a setup role in Pittsburgh in front of Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez.
The move reflects the Bucs’ surprising surge in the standings of late. While the club is still seven back in a tough NL Central division, it’s only four out of the Wild Card race and certainly could end up in postseason position. Of course, this isn’t a purely win-now move by any stretch. Kela, who is earning just $1.2MM this year, will be controllable via arbitration through 2020.
All told, Kela will wrap up his time in Texas with 169 2/3 innings of 3.45 ERA pitching. That’s right where his ERA sits this year, too, though estimators are a bit more bullish on his efforts (2.97 FIP/3.57 xFIP/3.22 SIERA) than the results would indicate. Kela is averaging 10.8 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 while throwing his fastball at a career-high average velocity of 97.5 mph.
While he has been on an upswing of late, there have been some low points as well. On the heels of a rough 2016 season, Kela found himself in the Rangers’ doghouse after some Spring Training shenanigans. He has also dealt with some problems in his elbow and shoulder, though to this point no major problems have arisen.
The Rangers may have seen this as the right time to cash in Kela, though surely he’d have remained an asset at the back of their bullpen. Given the organization’s need to build a new core, and the abundance of talent elsewhere in the division, it certainly makes sense to move relievers — even established but still-controllable ones.
This swap will bring some real value. Hearn came to Pittsburgh along with Vazquez in the same deadline swap two years ago. He’s widely considered an intriguing hurler, albeit one who’ll have to make some strides to factor as a starter at the game’s highest level.
Whether or not Hearn can tap into his ceiling, he seems likely to be a big-league contributor and there’s good reason to think he’ll at least become a high-quality reliever. Soon to turn 24, Hearn has mowed through the Double-A competition since a slow start to the present campaign. Overall, he owns a 3.12 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 on the year. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked him seventh among Pirates farmhands in their midseason re-ranking of the organization, lauding his 97-98 mph heater and above-average changeup while also noting the need to improve his slider and the control of his entire repertoire.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
12:15pm: The Dodgers are also still “in play,” Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets.
6:09pm: Despite some prior indications to the contrary, the Yankees remain involved in Archer’s market, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (via Twitter). There are five additional clubs still involved as well, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports: the Padres, Braves, Brewers, and two unnamed organizations.
5:24pm: The Rays have asked interested teams to make their best and final offers for right-hander Chris Archer, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa Bay has been in touch with roughly a dozen teams about Archer and could spend tonight and tomorrow morning reviewing those offers before ultimately making a call on whether to deal Archer.
It should be noted that it’s far from a certainty that Archer is dealt at all. There’s a mix in the tone of reports surrounding the possibility of an Archer trade that is likely reflective of the lack of an industry consensus on whether he’ll actually be traded. For instance, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that there’s a stronger sense than ever before that Archer will finally move, as the Rays are cognizant that he’s approaching his 30th birthday and this may be their final chance to get an enormous haul for him.
On the flipside, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to one executive familiar with the market who took an “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, meanwhile, spoke to an exec who said he still feels Tampa Bay will need to be “overwhelmed” and, despite years of rumors, still “[doesn’t] see it happening.”
The full slate of teams who have submitted (or plan on submitting) an offer for Archer isn’t yet known. Over the weekend, the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees and Cardinals were all connected rather prominently to Archer, though Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Yankees are viewed as an “unlikely” fit for Archer. Sherman added earlier today that the Pirates have jumped into the mix as well, while the Brewers and the Athletics have both at least touched base.
The Padres, meanwhile, have been rumored to be the most aggressive pursuing Archer, envisioning him as a rotation fixture in 2019 and beyond as San Diego emerges from its rebuild and aims to contend. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan wrote today that San Diego has been “especially engaged” in the Archer market, though he notes that the Friars have not yet been willing to meet Tampa Bay’s lofty asking price. Topkin wrote yesterday that a young catcher and controllable power-hitting outfielder would be “a good start” to a package from the Rays’ vantage point, though Tampa Bay will obviously be seeking numerous young pieces in return for three-plus years of the right-hander.
Archer, 29, obviously remains a popular trade target despite a month-long stint on the disabled list and some bottom-line results that haven’t lined up with his peripheral stats in recent seasons. That’s once again the case in 2018, as Archer is sitting on a 4.31 ERA despite possessing a 3.62 FIP and xFIP as well as a 3.75 SIERA. He’s averaged a strong 9.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 with Tampa Bay this season and has made moderate gains in terms of swinging-strike rate (13.6 percent) and chase rate (32.3 percent). Archer is allowing just one homer per nine innings after struggling with the long ball in recent seasons, and he’s also boosted his ground-ball rate nearly three percent, from 42.0 up to 44.7.
Of course, the big draw with Archer is the affordability of his contract. He’s owed $2.o8MM through the end of the current season and is guaranteed just $7.5MM in 2019 before the Rays (or an acquiring team) have club options valued at $9MM and $11MM for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In all, Archer can be controlled through 2021 for as little as $29.58MM, and in the event of a significant injury, he can be cut loose after 2019 and owed only a total of $11.33MM through the end of 2019.
The Red Sox have struck a deal to bring in second baseman Ian Kinsler from the Angels, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Minor-leaguers Williams Jerez and Ty Buttrey are going to the Halos in return, as Jon Heyman of Fancred was first to tweet.
Boston will also receive some money in the deal, per reports from Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (Twitter links) and Rosenthal (via Twitter). The Sox will receive $1.83MM, about half of the $3.6MM or so still owed to Kinsler, who is earning $11MM this year before reaching free agency at season’s end.
Kinsler, 36, remains a solid performer at his native second base. He has boosted his output at the plate with a recent tear, leaving him with a .239/.304/.406 slash for the season — good for a 97 wRC+. He still produces his share of home runs (13) and steals (9). And Kinsler remains a top-end defender.
All told, Kinsler seems to be quite a worthwhile addition for the Sox, who needed to account for ongoing uncertainty surrounding Dustin Pedroia. While the team has generally struck an optimistic tone on Pedroia, it’s anyone’s guess whether and when he’ll be back in action. At the very least, he’ll now face much less pressure to get on the field quickly, which may be best for both him and the team in the long run.
Certainly, the veteran second bagger is a known commodity to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who previously brought Kinsler onto the Tigers. Dombrowski might have stayed his hand, or opted for a lesser addition. But third baseman Rafael Devers recently went down as well further increasing the need to boost the infield depth. And given Boston’s compelling start to the season, there’s every reason to push the pedal to the floor to maximize the team’s chances of taking the AL East and navigating what promises to be a powerhouse AL postseason field.
Meanwhile, this deal delivers a consolation prize to the Angels, whose season started with great promise but crumbled as injuries mounted. Both of the team’s new assets are reasonably interesting, advanced pitchers who ought to help pad the organization’s depth charts as it enters an interesting offseason.
The 25-year-old Buttrey ranked 19th on MLB.com’s mid-season ranking of the Red Sox’ top prospects. The scouting report isn’t particularly optimistic, noting that he lacks movement and command on his high-velo heater and still hasn’t fully developed a reliable secondary offering. Still, Buttrey has impressed this year at Triple-A, turning in 44 frames of 2.25 ERA pitching with 13.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.
Jerez, 26, was also listed among Boston’s top thirty farm assets. The southpaw is a converted outfielder who has been working things out in the upper minors for several seasons now. While Jerez is currently showing a nice boost in his strikeout rate, which is up to 11.8 per nine at Triple-A, he’s also issuing a few too many walks (4.2 per nine) and has continued to struggle against right-handed batters. As things stand, he seems to profile mostly as a lefty specialist.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Braves have acquired outfielder Adam Duvall from the Reds in exchange for a trio of players, all of whom have MLB experience. Cincinnati receives righties Lucas Sims and Matt Wisler along with outfielder Preston Tucker. At first glance, it’s something of a swap of unwanted assets, as both teams clearly had different plans with their roster spots.
For the Atlanta organization, this represents an easily justifiable roll of the dice on Duvall. As he closes in on his 30th birthday, Duvall is stuck in a rough campaign. But he has huge power — he topped thirty bombs in each of the past two seasons — and also grades out as a high-end defender in left field.
In the near-term, Duvall will bolster the current outfield mix. Even if he isn’t able to boost his productivity at the plate all that much, he has been much better against left-handed pitching this season and over his career. The opposite is true of struggling Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, who could give way to phenom Ronald Acuna up the middle when the situation calls for it.
There’s also some future value here for the Braves to hope for. Duvall is heading into arbitration this fall for the first time. While he’ll likely be relatively expensive given his lofty home run rate and ample playing time in recent seasons, he could still be quite a valuable asset. With Nick Markakis headed to free agency, the organization does need corner outfield options.
First, though, Duvall will have to sort himself out. Through 370 plate appearances this season, he has an even 100 strikeouts. While his walk rate is up to a career-high 9.2%, Duvall is carrying a .286 OBP on the season and owns a piddling .294 lifetime mark. Believers in Statcast data will certainly note that the slugger has a promising .349 xwOBA to date on the year, far superior to the .295 wOBA he has actually produced.
Though this swap may not bring the promise of a massive near-term upgrade, it’s a clever means of improving the roster both now and in the future. It is somewhat more difficult to understand the move from the Reds’ perspective, unless one presumes that the club simply decided it wished to part ways with Duvall and that this was the time to do so.
Indeed, Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams says that one aspect of the deal was a desire to go in another direction in the corner outfield, as C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Jesse Winker may be out for the rest of this season, but he’ll now presumptively line up across from Scott Schebler next year. That leaves unanswered what the team will do up the middle with Billy Hamilton, who continues to run and defend with aplomb while barely hitting at all.
It’s a bit of a curious return for Duvall — who, to be fair, likely wasn’t drawing many strong prospect offers — but one that probably appeals more to the Reds than it would to just about any other organization. All three players acquired will require 40-man spots, yet none has carved out a permanent MLB job to this point despite receiving some opportunities to do so.
Perhaps one’s view of the swap hinges upon how you view the arms that are going to Cincinnati. For the Braves, both were simply upper-level depth pieces who were likely to be squeezed out as rising talents reach the majors or require Rule 5 draft protection. For a Reds organization whose pitching rebuilding effort hasn’t been quite as promising, either or both could perhaps become sources of affordable, useful innings.
The 24-year-old Sims, a 2012 first-rounder, has struggled through twenty MLB outings (including ten starts) over the past two seasons. He has spent most of the present season at Triple-A, where carries a 2.84 ERA with 10.2 K9 and 4.2 BB/9 over 73 innings. As for Wisler, 25, he has limped to a 5.27 ERA in 324 2/3 lifetime MLB frames. The former top prospect has posted a nice combination of 8.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 at Triple-A this year, but owns only a 4.37 ERA in seventy innings there.
For the time being, Tucker will help fill the opening created by the trade itself. He could in theory be a future reserve piece for the Reds, but he hits from the left side of the plate — an attribute he shares with all of the above-cited Cincinnati outfielders. The 28-year-old hit well in his run in the majors this year, posting a slighly-above-average .256/.307/.444 slash in 127 plate appearances, but has struggled in limited action at Triple-A.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
11:54pm: Morosi has now reversed his report, tweeting that a deal is in fact “not close.” He does note on Twitter that the Chicago organization remains involved in talks for Ziegler.
11:48pm: The Cubs are close to reaching agreement on a deal to bring veteran Marlins reliever Brad Ziegler to Wrigley, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Details of the prospective arrangement remain unknown.
While the Chicago organization has already acted to bolster its relief unit, adding swingman Jesse Chavez, it obviously feels it could still stand to improve. The Cubs have been tied to a variety of names in recent weeks, including Ziegler.
While the Nationals have done background work in anticipation of a potential pivot to a selling stance, all indications to this point have been that the club has little appetite for offers on superstar outfielder Bryce Harper. That does not mean, however, that there’s no room for trade talks to occur. And there’s increasing indication now that the Nats may be more open than ever to the once-unthinkable possibility of trading a franchise cornerstone in his prime.
Here’s the latest on Harper heading into tomorrow’s trade deadline …
Earlier Updates
There’s a “strong possibility” that righty Johnny Cueto will require Tommy John surgery, Giants manager Bruce Bochy told reporters today, including Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter). Cueto was placed on the disabled list earlier this evening.
Though clearly a final decision has yet to be made, it’s obviously poor news for a Giants organization that surely hoped for quite a bit more from the veteran starter. Cueto already missed over two months of the season due to a sprained right elbow, and he clearly hasn’t been pitching at full capacity since his return — the veteran righty has a 6.86 ERA in his four starts (21 IP) since being activated off the 60-day disabled list.
Between that extended stint and a brief 10-day DL stay due to a sprained ankle in April, Cueto seems set to finish his 2018 campaign with only 53 innings pitched. To make matters even more frustrating for both the player and his team, Cueto’s numbers over his first five starts were outstanding. He has a microscopic 0.84 ERA over his first 32 innings of the season, doing his best to carry an injury-riddled Giants rotation in April. It appeared as though Cueto had bounced back from a subpar 2017, but he now faces a major injury setback that will keep him sidelined for potentially all of the 2019 season, given the 12-16 month recovery window for Tommy John patients.
Cueto has generally been a durable arm over his career, notching four seasons of 200+ innings since 2012. He had a minor elbow issue in 2015, though that didn’t stop the Giants from signing Cueto to a six-year, $130MM contract in the 2015-16 offseason, and Cueto certainly didn’t look anything less than first-rate in his initial season in San Francisco (2.79 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.4 K/BB rate over 219 2/3 innings). A flexor strain and some blister issues cropped up in 2017, however, and Cueto managed just a 4.52 ERA over 147 1/3 innings.
This performance led Cueto to forego exercising his player opt-out clause following the 2017 season, leaving the Giants fully on the hook for the remainder of the contract. Cueto is owed $21MM in 2019, 2020, and 2021, and the Giants have a $22MM club option for the 2022 campaign that carries a $5MM buyout. Next year’s salary is now all but a write-off for the team, and since Cueto turns 33 in February, it can’t be certain that he’ll resume his front-of-the-rotation form when he eventually does return.
Tonight’s win over the Padres brought the Giants’ record to an even 54-54, and with a third of the season to go, the club is five games back in the NL West race and 5.5 games out of a wild card slot. Giants GM Bobby Evans recently indicated that his team still saw itself as a contender, and have been connected to a variety of names on the trade market in recent days. With the Giants already trying to thread the needle of making deadline upgrades without putting payroll over the luxury tax threshold, however, it could be that Cueto’s absence may turn San Francisco towards selling. MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi has reported that the Giants are indeed now open to trading pending free agents as they look ahead to 2019.
Without Cueto, the Giants’ rotation for next season currently projects as ace Madison Bumgarner (whose $12MM club option is an no-brainer pickup), a veteran who has dealt with his own share of injury problems in Jeff Samardzija, Andrew Suarez and Dereck Rodriguez (who have both pitched well in their rookie seasons). The Giants could look internally and give Ty Blach or Chris Stratton another crack at the fifth starter’s job, or it’s also possible the team could look to add a more established arm this winter. The Giants will be in a position to spend, after all, since they’ll only be charged the first-time offenders’ rate for luxury tax overages after getting back under the tax limit this season. The Brian Sabean/Bobby Evans front office hasn’t been shy about making bold moves for veterans, so expect the Giants to be linked to several big-name pitchers on the free agent and trade fronts this offseason.
Here are the latest rumors from around the game on the eve of the non-waiver trade deadline:
The Twins and Yankees have announced a trade that will send veteran righty Lance Lynn to New York. First baseman/outfielder Tyler Austin and minor-league right-hander Luis Rijo are headed to Minnesota.
Notably, the Twins will also send some cash in the swap. Lynn is earning $12MM this year, around $4MM of which remains to be paid. The sides will split the paychecks from this point forward. That will allow the Yankees to remain more or less cash-neutral after sending out righty Adam Warren in another trade this evening.
The Yanks clearly prefer Lynn to Warren, as the former will take the place of the latter on the roster. Though Lynn has worked exclusively as a starter since establishing himself in the majors, he seems likely to work from the bullpen upon his arrival in New York. While his numbers lag those of Warren, though, Lynn provides a clear backstop in the rotation.
There have been some positives this year for Lynn. He’s getting swinging strikes (10.1%) and groundballs (50.8%) more than ever before while operating near his peak velocity levels (94.1 mph). Still, there’s no sugarcoating the results. Through 102 1/3 innings in Minnesota, Lynn allowed 5.10 earned runs per nine.
While the magnitude of his difficulties has come as a surprise, many observed that the long-effective hurler seemed a strong candidate for regression when he reached the open market last winter. He had enjoyed a string of seasons in which he suppressed home runs to an extent that did not seem sustainable, then benefited from an unnaturally low BABIP-against (.244) upon returning from Tommy John surgery in 2017. This year, Lynn has allowed a .322 BABIP and 15.0% rate of home runs per flyball.
Of course, the market was aware of those concerns and priced them in. Lynn’s body of work still seemed impressive enough to support a multi-year deal, but he settled for a $12MM pillow contract with the Twins. The organization didn’t get what it bargained for, but then it also doesn’t need to worry about any ongoing salary entanglements.
Austin was a piece the Yankees could part with at will, as he just did not seem to have a place on the active roster and was in his final optionable year. The 26-year-old split the 2018 season between the majors (where he produced at a league-average clip) and Triple-A. In parts of four seasons at the highest level of the minors, Austin carries a .270/.347/.479 sash with 32 home runs through 829 plate appearances. He’ll likely enter camp next year with at least a shot at carving out a role on the 2019 Minnesota roster.
As for Rijo, he won’t turn twenty until September but did recently crack the High-A level. In 39 innings on the year in the low minors, he carries a 2.77 ERA with 32 strikeouts against just three walks.
Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links) first reported the deal, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeting it was for Lynn. Both reporters also had further details (Twitter links.)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Photos.
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