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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Chris Archer Trade

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If it seems that Chris Archer has been in trade rumors for years, that’s because he has. We’ve seen his name presented for quite some time as a top potential target for teams seeking young, affordable starting pitching. That happened again this summer, though it was far from clear in the run-up to yesterday’s deadline whether he’d be traded.

When the dust settled, Archer was finally on the move — and to something of a surprise destination. He’s heading to the Pirates in a deal that sends outfield prospect Austin Meadows, righty Tyler Glasnow, and a still-unknown player to be named later. Until we know the final piece of the deal, it’s a bit difficult to assess it fully, but indications are that it’s another asset of significant value.

For the Rays, it’s a familiar type of swap, though they’ve typically waited until free agency was a bit closer to ship out pitching assets.  They’ll get three highly controllable assets in return; Glasnow entered the season with less than a full year of MLB service and Meadows just debuted.

There’s risk in the new Tampa Bay talent, of course. Glasnow has shown a big arm but still hasn’t harnessed it. The Bucs have utilized him as a reliever this year and he’s still issuing 5.5 walks per nine. The upside remains tremendous, though. Meanwhile, Meadows can boast of a top-prospect pedigree and a .292/.327/.468 slash line in his first 49 MLB contests. But he hasn’t hit all that much in the upper minors since the start of the 2017 season and had slid down prospect rankings entering the current campaign.

From an organizational perspective, the Rays are increasingly utilizing hybrid hurlers over 200-inning starters. They could see Glasnow as a great fit for a more flexible role. And Meadows could be a long-term asset in the outfield. Plus, there’s still a bonus piece we don’t know about. And with Archer’s commitment off the books, the budget-conscious Rays have plenty of wiggle room financially.

How do you grade this move for the Rays? (Link for app users.)

How do you grade the Rays' side of the Chris Archer deal?
B 41.29% (6,038 votes)
A 38.27% (5,597 votes)
C 14.89% (2,178 votes)
D 3.38% (495 votes)
F 2.17% (317 votes)
Total Votes: 14,625

Meanwhile, Archer has his own risks. He is plenty affordable, but increasingly expensive ($6.25MM this year, $7.5MM next, with $20MM in options to follow for 2020 and 2021). It has been some time now since his bottom-line results have matched up with the shiny peripherals, and Archer is now closing in on his 30th birthday.

At the same time, the righty is a quality performer even if he’s not a front-line starter. Archer has averaged over 200 innings annually from 2014 through 2017. He’s posting career-best 13.6% swinging-strike rate on the year and seems a good bet at least to improve upon his current 4.31 ERA.

Perhaps Archer isn’t an ace and won’t be enough to help the Bucs complete a drive to the postseason (the odds of which still seem long). Still, there’s an argument to be made that this is a sensible baseball swap for a team that knows well the players it is parting with.

How do you see it? (Link for app users.)

How do you grade the Pirates' side of the Chris Archer deal?
B 34.29% (4,368 votes)
C 26.86% (3,421 votes)
A 24.17% (3,078 votes)
D 10.53% (1,341 votes)
F 4.15% (529 votes)
Total Votes: 12,737

How August Trades Work

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Now that the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline has passed, teams can still make trades, only with more restrictions than before.  The full list of rules surrounding post-deadline trades have, of course, been shared elsewhere, most notably in an article by Jayson Stark (then with ESPN.com) from all the way back in 2004, and in greater detail at Cub Reporter. Since the rules surrounding August deals are confusing, though, they’re worth reviewing here.

  • After the trade deadline, a big-league player must pass through revocable waivers before his team can trade him without restriction. These waivers last 47 hours. If no one claims him in that period, his team can trade him anywhere.
  • If a player is claimed, his team can do one of three things. It can trade the player to the claiming team, revoke the waiver request (in which case the player will remain with his original team), or simply allow the claiming team to take the player and his salary (although a player with no-trade rights can block this from happening).
  • A recent example of an August trade that developed from a waiver claim was the Mariners’ acquisition of Arquimedes Caminero from the Pirates in 2016.  The Mariners claimed Caminero and then worked out a deal with the Bucs to bring the right-hander to Seattle for two players to be named later. An example of a claim that didn’t result in a trade occurred in 2015, when an unknown team claimed Brewers reliever Francisco Rodriguez. The two sides couldn’t strike a deal, so the Brewers revoked their waiver request, and K-Rod remained in Milwaukee. Examples of teams simply letting players go via revocable waivers are more rare, particularly with big-contract players. That being said, it is always possible; in 2009, the White Sox claimed Alex Rios from the Blue Jays, who simply let him go to Chicago without a trade. The White Sox were thus responsible for all of the approximately $62MM remaining on Rios’ contract.
  • A team has 48.5 hours to trade a claimed player, and can only negotiate with the team awarded the claim on him.
  • It’s common for teams to place players on revocable waivers, and their having done so does not necessarily mean they have serious plans to trade them. As Stark points out, teams commonly use waivers of certain players purely as smokescreens to disguise which players they really are interested in trading. In fact, sometimes teams place their entire rosters on waivers.
  • If more than one team claims a player, priority is determined by worst record to best record in the league of the waiving team, followed by worst record to best record in the other league. For example, if an NL team places a player on revocable waivers, the team with the NL’s worst record will get first priority on claims, followed by every other team in the NL from worst to best, followed by AL teams from worst to best.
  • If a team pulls a player back from waivers once, it cannot do so again in August. So if a team places a player on waivers for a second time, those waivers will be non-revocable.
  • Players not on 40-man rosters are eligible to be traded at any time without passing through waivers.
  • A player on the disabled list can only pass through waivers if his minimum period of inactivity has passed and he is healthy and able to play at his accustomed level.
  • Teams can still make trades in September, but players acquired after August 31st can’t play in the postseason.

Due to the number of restrictions in place, it has long been relatively rare to see trades of real significance go down in August. But that all changed last year in a wild month of action. A variety of notable players were moved during August of 2017, most famously including Justin Verlander, who ultimately helped lead the Astros to a World Series victory. Justin Upton, Mike Leake, Neil Walker, Jay Bruce, Yonder Alonso, Brandon Phillips, Rajai Davis, Curtis Granderson, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Rodriguez were among the others that were swapped.

While that easily represented the most notable August trade season we’ve yet encountered at MLBTR, in terms of both quality and quantity of action, it didn’t contain the single most monumental transaction in the run-up to a waiver deadline. Rather, the biggest August trade in recent memory remains the nine-player swap between the Dodgers and Red Sox in 2012 that saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett head to L.A.  That ground-shifting deal not only launched a Dodgers resurgence, but also allowed the Red Sox to clear tens of millions in salary commitments off their books, paving the way for the team to reload in the offseason and go on to win the 2013 World Series.

This post is adapted from a prior series of posts.

Nationals Designate Shawn Kelley, Select Jimmy Cordero

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The Nationals announced today that they have designated veteran righty Shawn Kelley for assignment. The club selected the contract of reliever Jimmy Cordero in a corresponding move.

This stunner of a move comes on the heels of a rollicking post-deadline victory that ended on a bit of a sour note. Kelley admitted that he “acted like a baby” in slamming his glove after giving up a home run in mop-up duty last night, but it was his evident glare into the dugout that seems to have caught the ire of the Nats’ brass.

Kelley, 34, had come up in some talks in the run-up to the trade deadline, though it seemed that the Nationals were more interested in moving salary than parting with the veteran reliever. Now, unless he’s traded or claimed, Kelley will collect the remainder of his $5.5MM salary (less any portion of the league-minimum if he clears waivers and signs elsewhere) and will be removed from a relief unit that also just parted ways with Brandon Kintzler.

There has been some chatter of late about supposed internal turmoil in D.C., though as ever it’s hard to know whether that’s mostly just reflective of frustrations with a season that has fallen shy of expectations. Still, this move certainly sends a message. After deciding to roll the dice on a turnaround, ownership and upper management obviously isn’t interested in further public displays of discord.

Of course, Kelley’s work on the hill is also a factor. He’s carrying a 3.34 ERA through 32 1/3 innings on the year, a vast improvement over his disastrous 2017 season, but is still surrendering nearly two home runs per nine innings. And though Kelley has a quality combination of 8.9 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9, his swinging-strike rate has plummeted to a 11.2% figure that sits well below his recent levels.

It’s still tough to imagine that the Nationals prefer to part with relief depth at this stage of the season, but Cordero had been forcing his way into the picture. As J.J. Cooper of Baseball America recently tweeted, the former Phillies prospect — originally added in a swap with the division rivals in the fall of 2016 — has shown impressive stuff this year at Triple-A. He’ll now head up for his MLB debut after throwing 43 innings of 1.67 ERA ball at Syracuse, where he posted 9.8 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 along with a 52.6% groundball rate.

Jake Lamb Considering Rotator Cuff Surgery

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The Diamondbacks revealed last night that third baseman Jake Lamb is dealing with “fraying” in his left rotator cuff, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The 27-year-old is currently weighing surgery that would end his season.

As Piecoro documents, recent signals have suggested there was some real concern with the joint, as Lamb’s case has been assessed by some of the game’s foremost surgeons. Still, the hope remains that Lamb will not have to go under the knife. If he chooses to attempt a rehabilitation approach, it’s still possible he could be back this year, though surely there are other risks and drawbacks also being weighed.

It seems the organization’s quick strike for Eduardo Escobar days before the trade deadline was motivated in no small part by the uncertainty that sprung up regarding Lamb. Though manager Torey Lovullo says there was no indication at the time the injury was this significant, GM Mike Hazen acknowledged last night that he went after Escobar before word of uncertainty on the team’s regular third baseman got out. (Via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter.)

While the presence of Escobar leaves the team in good shape at the hot corner, the roster would look much stronger with both him and a healthy and productive Lamb available. Of course, Lamb hasn’t been at his best thus far in 2018 prior to today’s news. Over 238 plate appearances, he’s slashing just .222/.307/.348 with six home runs. With a .126 isolated slugging mark that’s about half the ISO he produced over the past two seasons, it could well be that the shoulder problem has been a factor all along.

Looking ahead, the D-Backs will have to hope that Lamb can get back to full health over the winter, regardless of which approach he takes to addressing the injury. After all, Escobar is heading to free agency. The Snakes control Lamb for the next two seasons via arbitration. Given his struggles this year, he’ll be in line for only a light raise on his $4,275,000 salary.

Injury Notes: Pedroia, C-Mart, Moylan, Happ, Bogaerts

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The Red Sox struck a deal with the Angels today to acquire second baseman Ian Kinsler, and although that’s not a firm indicator that the injured Dustin Pedroia won’t make it back to the field, Christopher Smith of Masslive.com reports that the club doesn’t seem overly optimistic about the prospect of his return. “I can’t say we don’t expect him to return but we’re not anticipating that he’s going to be,” said Dave Dombrowski, the club’s president of baseball operations. Pedroia’s currently rehabbing back in Arizona, and has yet to make any significant contribution this season after undergoing offseason knee surgery.

A few more injury notes from around the league…

  • The Cardinals have officially placed right-hander Carlos Martinez back on the disabled list with a right shoulder strain. Martinez owns a 3.41 ERA on the season, and ERA estimators like FIP (3.65) and xFIP (4.44) paint a slightly worse picture. That’s not the whole story though, as Martinez owns an ERA above 5 since returning from his first DL stint thanks to a lat strain.
  • Likewise, the Braves have placed righty reliever Peter Moylan on the 10-day DL (with a right forearm strain) retroactive to Sunday. Moylan hasn’t looked quite like himself this season; usually a talented right-handed specialist, he’s been hit hard this season to the tune of a 4.45 ERA while walking an uncharacteristic 5.72 batters per nine innings.
  • The Yankees sent newly-acquired starter J.A. Happ home on Tuesday after he reportedly contracted a “hand, foot and mouth disease”. The left-hander might not make his next scheduled start against the Red Sox. Happ was acquired by the Yankees just this past week in an effort by the club to shore up its rotation.
  • Speaking of the Red Sox, Xander Bogaerts had a scare today. The Boston shortstop was hit by a pitch on the hand and collapsed to the ground in pain during tonight’s game, though thankfully exams found the injury to be only a hand contusion (source: Ian Browne, MLB.com). Bogaerts is hitting .275/.340/.512 on the season and already has 16 homers, putting him on pace to set a new career high.

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Martinez, Paxton, Rendon, Sale, Trade Acquisitions

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(July 30th-July 31st)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

—

AMERICAN LEAGUE

—

FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

Callaway, Ricco on Mets’ Decision Not To Trade Starters

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In spite of a 44-59 record (and tack on another loss following tonight’s 25-4 defeat at the hands of the Nationals) and a roster facing a significant number of questions, the Mets opted to hang onto a number of notable potential trade pieces at the deadline. New York will retain all of Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom rather than take advantage of a pitching-starved market that could have netted them hefty prospect returns.

While the Rays were able to turn Chris Archer into Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow today, the Mets will hang onto their talented young arms as they lose another half-season of team control. Tim Healey of Newsday reports that Mickey Callaway had a hand in this decision, pressuring the front office to hang onto Wheeler and the rest of the starting rotation beyond today’s 4pm deadline. “We all just told them the truth about what we felt about Zack Wheeler and who he is and what he’s become and what we think he can be moving forward,” Callaway said. “I think that had a significant impact in the decisions we made and the players we might’ve been looking for to potentially move him.”

Assistant General Manager John Ricco had similar words on the subject, noting that it would have taken “a premium” in order to move any of their starting rotation talent. “We know the talent that we have, specifically on the pitching side,” he said. “We were not going to move those players unless it involved considerable talent coming back in our direction.”

Ricco went on say that the Mets actually considered adding players controllable through 2019 and beyond, though obviously nothing came through on that front. “We were not only given the opportunity, we were asked by ownership to be creative and be open to all possibilities, including those types of impactful trades,” Ricco said. Healey notes that the Mets believe they can contend next season. Ricco believes in the club’s pitching, but acknowledges they need to find “a way to score more runs” and “play better defense”.

It’s not clear what kind of moves the Mets might attempt to make this winter if they’re serious in their attempts to contend in 2019. They’re obviously in a tough division that’s not likely to get any easier with the Phillies and Braves on the rise, and the Nationals unlikely to fade significantly. One has to wonder how the Mets plan to improve their offense to the extent they’d need to in order to climb out of the run-scoring cellar. Then again, perhaps improvements from Michael Conforto and further development of Brandon Nimmo could go a long way, and it’s possible they could be at least a competitive offense if some other things break the right way in addition.

40-Man Moves: D-backs, Dodgers, Indians, Mets, Mariners, Cubs, Marlins, O’s

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This has been a trade-packed day across Major League Basbeall, meaning there are plenty of corresponding smaller moves that have been announced over the past couple of hours as teams make today’s agreed-upon deals official. Here’s a look at the DFAs, contract selections and other 40-man transactions that came along with today’s action…

  • The Diamondbacks designated left-handed reliever Jorge De La Rosa to make room for newly added southpaw Jake Diekman, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. De La Rosa, a longtime Colorado starter who’s in his second season in Arizona, switched to a full-time relief role upon changing teams and hasn’t produced inspiring results. The 37-year-old has logged a 4.38 ERA/4.98 FIP with 7.51 K/9, 4.17 BB/9 in 86 1/3 innings since joining the D-backs. On the bright side, De La Rosa has posted a 48 percent groundball rate and been tough on left-handed hitters. Considering he’s only owed the balance of a $2.25MM salary, perhaps a team will be interested in taking a flyer on De La Rosa.
  • The Dodgers designated righty Ariel Hernandez for assignment to open a spot for John Axford, per the MLB.com transactions page. Hernandez, 26, scuffled through his first MLB action last year with the Reds and hasn’t made it back since. Over fifty frames this year in the upper minors, he’s carrying an appealing 2.52 ERA, but has also handed out 29 walks to go with his 49 strikeouts.
  • The Indians announced that they’ve designated outfielder Johnny Field for assignment. His spot on the 40-man will go to newly acquired outfield prospect Oscar Mercado, whom Cleveland acquired in a rare all-prospects trade with the Cardinals (full details here). Field, 26, only recently landed with the Indians himself after spending most of the year (and his entire professional career to that point) with the Rays. Field posted a meager .213/.253/.373 batting line in his first 179 MLB plate appearances, all accumulated earlier this season.
  • The Mets announced today that they’ve claimed infielder Jack Reinheimer, who was designated for assignment last week, off waivers from the Diamondbacks. A former fifth-round pick, Reinheimer received a cup of coffee with the D-Backs last year but hadn’t done much to force his way back to this point in 2018. In his fifty games at Triple-A, Reinheimer owns a .237/.312/.353 batting line. Additionally, outfielder Matt den Dekker cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Las Vegas. He’ll have the right to elect free agency now or at season’s end.
  • Outfielder Isaac Galloway is on his way to the Majors to make his MLB debut with the Marlins, the club announced. It’s a long time coming for an eleven-year pro who has never before tasted the majors. Through 356 plate appearances this year at Triple-A, Galloway carries a .262/.315/.429 triple-slash.
  • Galloway’s contract was selected following the trade of Cameron Maybin to the Mariners, who opened a spot for Maybin by moving right-hander Dan Altavilla from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL in yet another 40-man move. Similarly, Cubs righty Justin Hancock was transferred to the 60-day disabled list in order to open a spot for Brandon Kintzler, who was acquired from the Nationals today.
  • The Orioles are selecting the contract of right-handed reliever Cody Carroll, who will step into the roster spot of Kevin Gausman following today’s trade to Atlanta. Carroll landed with the Baltimore organization in the recent swap that sent reliever Zach Britton to the Yankees.
  • First baseman Ryan O’Hearn had his contract selected by the Royals, per a team announcement. Infielder Cheslor Cuthbert moved to the 60-day DL to open a spot. It’s the first crack at the majors for O’Hearn, who’ll get the call despite tepid results (.232/.322/.391) this year at Triple-A.
  • Righty Warwick Saupold cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A by the Tigers. The Aussie hurler threw 34 1/3 innings of 4.46 ERA ball this year in Detroit, but managed only 16 strikeouts and a 6.1% swinging-strike rate in that span.

Brewers Release Brad Miller

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JULY 31: The Brewers have released Miller.

JULY 28: The Brewers have designated infielder Brad Miller, per a team announcement. The move was made to make room for the newly-acquired Mike Moustakas on the active roster. At the same time, the club reinstated right-handed reliever Matt Albers from the 10-day disabled list and optioned outfielder Keon Broxton to Triple-A.

Milwaukee acquired the 28-year-old Miller earlier this season in a one-for-one swap with the Rays, to whom they sent first baseman Ji-Man Choi in exchange. That hasn’t worked out quite as they’d hoped, as Miller’s been worse in 80 plate appearances in Milwaukee than he was in Tampa Bay this season. Since coming over, he’s hit just .230/.288/.378 with an eye-popping 38.8% strikeout rate. That’s incredibly concerning considering his abnormally high .366 BABIP.

Miller’s amassed 2,505 plate appearances during his MLB career, mostly with the Mariners and Rays. All told, he owns a .239/.313/.409 batting line with 75 career home runs. Miller came up through Seattle’s system after being selected early in the second round of the 2011 draft. He put up excellent power and contact numbers throughout his minor-league career while putting up a walk rate of at least 11% at every level from Class A-Advanced up. Those gaudy totals never translated to the majors, though, and while he was a useful player at times, the organizations he was a part of were surely disappointed to never see him reach his full potential.

Red Sox Place Chris Sale On DL

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The Red Sox announced that they’ve placed left-hander Chris Sale on the disabled list, retroactive to July 28, with mild inflammation in his pitching shoulder. The team recalled righty Brandon Workman from Triple-A Pawtucket to take Sale’s roster spot.

Fortunately for Boston, expectations are that Sale will only miss one start, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. Assuming that proves true, this won’t be a catastrophic occurrence for Boston, which has seen Sale continue to serve as an elite starter since acquiring him from the White Sox entering 2017.

Dating back to his change in Sox, Sale has worked to a tremendous 2.56 ERA/2.31 FIP with awe-inspiring strikeout and walk rates (13.04 K/9, 1.92 BB/9) across 355 1/3 innings. Last season was the third straight 200-plus-inning campaign for Sale, who has logged a 2.04 ERA/2.08 FIP with 13.21 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9 over 141 frames this year to once again put himself in Cy Young contention. Thanks in part to the 28-year-old Sale’s brilliance, Boston has registered the majors’ best record (75-33) en route to a six-game lead in the AL East.

Whether he misses one start or more, Sale will count as the third BoSox starter on the DL, joining Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright – each of whom are seemingly dealing with more severe injuries. For now, the Red Sox will continue with Rick Porcello, David Price, the just-acquired Nathan Eovaldi and Drew Pomeranz in their rotation, and they’ll utilize lefty Brian Johnson as a starter to cover for Sale’s absence. However, in the event Sale’s injury proves more serious than expected (and if Rodriguez and Wright still aren’t back), perhaps Boston will end up on the lookout for yet another trade pickup prior to the end-of-August waiver deadline.

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