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Sorting The Relievers Of The Upcoming Free-Agent Class

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On Saturday, we took a look at which pending free-agent starters had the most successful regular seasons in terms of velocity, strikeouts, walks, generating ground balls and inducing weak contact. We’ll do the same here with relievers who are scheduled to become free agents in a few weeks (once again, thanks to MLBTR’s Steve Adams for coming up with this method a year ago and to FanGraphs for supplying such invaluable data).

To qualify, a reliever must have thrown at least 20 innings this past regular season. Notably, we’re leaving Sean Doolittle, Mark Melancon, Pedro Strop and Brandon Kintzler off the list. Everyone from that group has either a team option or an opt-out for 2019 (or both in Kintzler’s case), but it appears highly unlikely any will hit free agency. On the other hand, just to be safe, we are including Milwaukee’s Joakim Soria, Oakland’s Fernando Rodney and the White Sox’s Nate Jones.

Soria and the Brewers will have to decide on a $10MM mutual option, but he may instead return to free agency on the heels of a strong season. Both Rodney’s age (42 in March) and the Athletics’ low payroll seem to increase the odds of them buying out the journeyman for $250K instead of exercising his $4.25MM option. Jones has a similarly affordable option ($4.65MM), so it’s hard to imagine the White Sox cutting ties with him in favor of a $1.25MM buyout, but perhaps his history of injuries will convince the team to go in another direction. (The guess is he’ll remain with the White Sox, but we’ll err on the side of caution.)

Hardest Throwers (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 93.4 mph

  1. Joe Kelly: 98.1 mph fastball velocity
  2. Nate Jones: 97.2 mph
  3. Craig Kimbrel: 97.1 mph
  4. Kelvin Herrera: 96.5 mph
  5. Jeurys Familia: 96.2 mph
  6. Ryan Madson: 95.8 mph
  7. John Axford: 95.6 mph
  8. Daniel Hudson: 95.4 mph
  9. Zach McAllister: 95.2 mph
  10. Fernando Rodney: 95.2 mph

Top Strikeout Arms (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 23.2 K%, 8.95 K/9

  1. Craig Kimbrel: 38.9 K%, 13.86 K/9
  2. Adam Ottavino: 36.3 K%, 12.98 K/9
  3. David Robertson: 32.2 K%, 11.76 K/9
  4. Tyler Clippard: 30.2 K%, 11.17 K/9
  5. Joakim Soria: 29.4 K%, 11.13 K/9
  6. Andrew Miller: 29.2 K%, 11.91 K/9
  7. Justin Wilson: 29.2 K%, 11.36 K/9
  8. Tony Sipp: 27.8 K%, 9.78 K/9
  9. Cody Allen: 27.7 K%, 10.75 K/9
  10. Jeurys Familia: 27.5 K%, 10.38 K/9

Fewest Walks (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 9.3 BB%, 3.57 BB/9

  1. Jesse Chavez: 4.5 BB%, 1.6 BB/9
  2. Tony Barnette: 4.8 BB%, 1.71 BB/9
  3. Zach McAllister: 5.0 BB%, 2.0 BB/9
  4. Kelvin Herrera: 5.5 BB%, 2.03 BB/9
  5. Shawn Kelley: 5.8 BB%, 2.02 BB/9
  6. Sergio Romo: 6.1 BB%, 2.3 BB/9
  7. Joakim Soria: 6.3 BB%, 2.37 BB/9
  8. Matt Belisle: 6.8 BB%, 2.88 BB/9
  9. Ryan Madson: 6.9 BB%, 2.73 BB/9
  10. Jim Johnson: 7.6 BB%, 2.9 BB/9

Highest Groundball Rates (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 43.5 percent

  1. Zach Britton: 73.0 percent
  2. Brad Ziegler: 71.1 percent
  3. Zach Duke: 59.4 percent
  4. John Axford: 53.4 percent
  5. Tony Barnette: 51.2 percent
  6. Peter Moylan and Blaine Boyer: 51.2 percent
  7. Jorge De La Rosa: 50.9 percent
  8. Jim Johnson: 49.2 percent
  9. Jake Diekman: 47.8 percent
  10. Andrew Miller: 47.7 percent

Least Hard Contact Allowed (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 34.8 percent

  1. Adam Ottavino: 25.3 percent
  2. Joakim Soria: 25.9 percent
  3. Tony Sipp: 26.3 percent
  4. John Axford: 26.4 percent
  5. Craig Kimbrel: 27.1 percent
  6. Justin Wilson: 28.4 percent
  7. Jeurys Familia: 28.6 percent
  8. Ryan Madson: 28.7 percent
  9. Zach Britton: 28.8 percent
  10. Zach Duke: 29.0 percent

No surprise, but Kimbrel figures prominently here. After enjoying yet another excellent regular season, during which he racked up 42 saves in 47 chances and posted a 2.74 ERA, the 30-year-old is poised to to sign one of the richest deals in the history of relievers. He’s joined by several other high-end options (Ottavino, Robertson, Familia and Britton, to name only a few) who should garner notable paydays on the open market. For teams that can’t afford the top relievers available, some of the less exciting names above may carry appeal as reclamation projects. Madson, for instance, had a horrid year with respect to run prevention (5.47 ERA in 52 2/3 innings), but he’s coming off a standout season in terms of velo, walks and weak contact. The 38-year-old also brings an impressive track record to the table.

Red Sox Notes: Pitching Staff, Kinsler, Moreland

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We checked in on Boston earlier Sunday in the aftermath of its loss on Saturday to the Yankees, who tied the teams’ ALDS matchup at a game apiece.  Here’s yet another set of notes on the Red Sox as they prepare for Game 3 on Monday:

  • The Red Sox have chosen Nathan Eovaldi, not Rick Porcello, to start Game 3, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe was among those to report. Porcello is slated to take the ball in Game 4, though manager Alex Cora said that could change if the Red Sox need him out of the bullpen Monday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. Game 2 starter David Price also seems likely to be available in relief, Ian Browne of MLB.com relays. As for the 28-year-old Eovaldi, a former Yankee whom the Red Sox acquired from the Rays in July, he’s in line for his first playoff appearance. The hard-throwing right-hander earned his way into Boston’s October rotation by logging a 3.33 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 54 regular-season innings with the team.
  • Second baseman Ian Kinsler – who, like Eovaldi, joined the Red Sox in a late-July trade – may be a regrettable pickup in the wake of an Aug. 3 hamstring injury, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe observes. Kinsler got off to a nice start with Boston, but since suffering the injury, his production has plummeted. The 36-year-old has slashed a measly .234/.280/.295 with a subpar 85.1 mph average exit velocity in 34 games dating back to his return from the disabled list, notes Speier. Further, his ongoing presence in the Red Sox’s lineup has kept Brock Holt – who thrived in September – on the bench. And Speier goes on to point out that adding Kinsler cost the Red Sox young reliever Ty Buttrey, who turned in quality numbers for the Angels after the trade and may have helped shore up Boston’s bullpen had it kept him. Of course, as Speier writes, there’s still time for Kinsler to emerge as a key contributor for Boston this postseason. He did collect a hit in each of their first two playoff games, including an RBI double on Saturday.
  • After leaving Saturday’s game with right hamstring tightness, first baseman Mitch Moreland is receiving “aggressive treatment,” Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston was among those to tweet. His status for Monday is still up in the air, but as was the case late Saturday, Cora expects Moreland to remain on Boston’s ALDS roster, per Cotillo.

International Notes & Signings: Mesas, Gaston, O’s, Marlins, Dodgers, Gutierrez

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The latest on the international market:

  • Cuban free agents Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr. and Sandy Gaston held a showcase in Miami for all 30 teams on Friday. The Orioles, with the most international spending room available (~$6.7MM), are reportedly the favorites to sign Victor Victor Mesa, an outfielder who’s the No. 1-ranked int’l prospect available. It seems the team that gets him will also land his brother, a fellow outfielder, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes the two “are viewed within the industry as a package deal.” The O’s are indeed interested in the tandem, reports Kubatko, who adds that they also “really like” Gaston – a right-handed pitcher. Financially speaking, the Orioles hold a significant edge over every other team in the league when it comes to signing any of these players, but Kubatko notes that the Marlins’ proximity to Cuba could stand in Baltimore’s way. The Marlins, who have the second-most money to spend ($4.3MM), have made it known that they are trying to use location to their advantage. Further, in their push to sign the Mesas and Gaston, the Marlins set up personalized lockers with uniforms for the players, Kubatko relays. Team CEO and future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter also happened to be on hand for their showcase.
  • The Dodgers have signed Cuban righty Osvani Gutierrez to a $600K bonus, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. The 17-year-old did not rank among the top international prospects available at any of BA, MLB.com or FanGraphs, but Badler writes that Gutierrez is “a solid strike-thrower for his age” who “shows feel for his secondary pitches” and can bring 93 mph heat. The Dodgers entered this year’s international signing period with the standard bonus pool of $4,983,500. As of mid-September, they were down to $2.78MM – still one of the highest sums left.

NL Notes: Cardinals, Nats, Benoit, Giants, Panik

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The Cardinals just wrapped up their third straight season without a playoff berth, which is all the more concerning given that team control is dwindling over Yadier Molina (two years), Matt Carpenter, Miles Mikolas, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Wacha (one year apiece) and Adam Wainwright (pending free agent), as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out. The Redbirds are cognizant of the fact that the 36-year-old Molina won’t be around forever, chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said this week, adding: “Our timeframe with this club is now. It has been that way literally every year for many years.” There’s now a “palpable” impatience atop the St. Louis hierarchy, according to Goold, who reports that the Cardinals are poised to seek left-handed relief upgrades and left-handed power for their lineup this offseason as they work to snap a three-year playoff drought in 2019. The Cards have pitching depth to dangle in trades and plenty of money to spend, Goold notes, so it figures to be an active winter for the club.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • While nothing’s official, it’s “pretty clear” pending free-agent reliever Joaquin Benoit will retire, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. The 41-year-old Benoit joined the Nationals on a $1MM guarantee last winter, but a shoulder injury prevented him from throwing a pitch for the team during the regular season. Had Benoit been younger, he likely would have undergone surgery and then rehabbed his way back, general manager Mike Rizzo said last week. Understandably, though, Benoit doesn’t want to fight through a lengthy recovery period at his age. If the journeyman’s career is over, it’ll conclude with a 3.83 ERA, 212 holds and 53 saves over 1,068 2/3 innings.
  • Fresh off a rough season, Giants second baseman Joe Panik’s future in San Francisco is uncertain, considering the team’s next head of baseball operations may opt for someone else at the keystone, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California observes. Panik realizes as much, telling Pavlovic: “It’s all about whoever comes in and who they feel is the best fit for the organization going forward. You hope it’s you, but at the end of the day, it’s not your call.” Although the soon-to-be 28-year-old Panik batted a non-threatening .254/.307/.332 (75 wRC+) with four home runs in 392 plate appearances this season, he’s likely to score upward of $5MM during his second-last arb trip during the winter, Pavlovic writes. That’d be a solid raise over the $3.45MM Panik pulled in this year. As for his disappointing 2018, during which he missed time with thumb and groin injuries, Panik offered: “Once I went down with the thumb, I feel like I could just never get it back. It’s hard to explain to people … when your season is kind of choppy and broken up, it’s hard to sometimes find your rhythm. But when it comes down to it, you still have to find a way.”

Red Sox Notes: Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Moreland

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Red Sox left-hander David Price has been among the majors’ best starters for the majority of his career, but playoff success has eluded the 33-year-old. In his latest disappointing October performance, Price threw 1 2/3 innings of three-run ball Saturday during a 6-2 loss to the Yankees, who evened the teams’ ALDS matchup at a game apiece. Amazingly, Price now owns an 0-9 record and a 6.03 ERA over 10 postseason starts, though his ongoing struggles on the game’s biggest stage won’t lead the Red Sox to pull him from their rotation. Both manager Alex Cora and pitching coach Dana LeVangie expressed confidence in the five-time All-Star after Saturday’s game, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. While Mastrodonato argues that the Red Sox should think about shifting Price to a relief role for the rest of the postseason, the team’s not considering it. Price is “one of our starters,” said Cora, who added that he simply had a “bad outing” in Game 2.

Given that the ALDS is only a best-of-five series, Boston won’t need Price to start again versus the Yankees. But after throwing just 42 pitches Saturday, Price could function as a reliever before the series is out. Price told Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com and other reporters he’d be ready to pitch again as early as Game 3 on Monday, and he also declared (via Mastrodonato) that he’s “looking forward to winning games in October as a starter.”

More on Boston, whose series is shifting to New York for Games 3 and 4:

  • The Red Sox are deciding between right-handers Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi for the third game of the series, Cora said Saturday (via Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston). It appears they’ll turn to Porcello, though, as Eovaldi suggested he’s lined up for Game 4, Rob Bradford of WEEI tweets. Porcello’s only a few days removed from working out of Boston’s bullpen, having thrown 15 pitches and picked up a pair of outs in the eighth inning of its Game 1 win Friday. The 29-year-old functioned solely as a starter during the regular season, as has been the case throughout his career, and pitched to a 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP with 8.94 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 191 1/3 innings. Porcello has been more effective on the road than at home this year, which seems to bode well for the Red Sox’s current situation. He posted a 4.77 ERA/4.63 FIP at Fenway Park during the regular season and a 3.86 ERA/3.48 FIP outside of Boston.
  • First baseman Mitch Moreland exited Saturday’s game in the eighth inning because of right hamstring tightness, Cora announced (via Cotillo). It doesn’t seem to be a serious issue, however, with Cora saying that Boston probably won’t remove Moreland from its ALDS roster. If healthy, the left-handed hitter’s likely to start Monday against Yankees righty Luis Severino, Cotillo writes. Boston replaced him Saturday with the righty-swinging Steve Pearce – who, to his credit, has outproduced Moreland against RHPs this year.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Moustakas, Nelson, Cubs, Chavez

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Third baseman Mike Moustakas “could see himself” staying with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. “I like it here,” Moustakas said. “The team is together. The coaching staff is together. The training staff is together. We have a good time here every single day.” Moustakas, who joined Milwaukee via trade with Kansas City in July, has been a key part of the Brewers’ two playoff wins so far. He also offered respectable production between the two teams during the regular season, combining for 2.5 rWAR/2.4 fWAR with a .251/.315/.439 line (105 wRC+) and 28 home runs in 635 plate appearances. But it’s unknown whether that’ll lead the Brewers and Moustakas to exercise their $15MM mutual option for 2019; if not, it’s anyone’s guess whether the 30-year-old would garner much of a raise over his 2018 salary on the open market. Moustakas made his first trip to free agency last offseason, a frustrating winter in which he sat without a team until March. The lack of interest in Moustakas enabled the Royals to re-sign him for a surprisingly low sum ($6.5MM guaranteed and, as Heyman points out, $8.7MM with incentives). Looking ahead to 2019, the Brewers will have a full infield under control – which could make Moustakas’ stay with them a short one – though a few of those players (e.g., Eric Thames, Jonathan Schoop and Hernan Perez) logged uninspiring production during the regular campaign.

More on Milwaukee and the club it dethroned en route to a National League Central title:

  • The Brewers haven’t received any contributions this year from injured right-hander Jimmy Nelson – nor will they as they continue a potential march to a World Series – but that figures to change in 2019. Nelson, down since September 2017 with shoulder issues, has completed his “formal rehab,” general manager David Stearns said Saturday (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). “He has returned to pitching. That is a great thing to say.” Nelson pitched like a front-line starter a year ago, notching a 3.49 ERA/3.05 FIP in 175 1/3 innings, and his absence has made the Brewers’ success this season all the more impressive. The 29-year-old will enter his penultimate season of arbitration control in 2019.
  • After Colorado eliminated Chicago from the playoffs Tuesday, Cubs reliever Jesse Chavez reportedly declared to teammates, “If I’m not wearing this [uniform] next year, I’m done.” Whether the pending free agent, 35, still feels that way is unclear, but he did tell Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required), “I’m open-minded to anything,” with regard to a potential role on next year’s Cubs. Joining the Cubs, who acquired him from the Rangers in July, enabled Chavez to participate in the playoffs for the first time in his long career, Mooney notes. “This has been one of my favorite places to come since I broke into the league,” Chavez said to Mooney, and he went on to laud the Cubs’ “atmosphere, the history, the culture, the clubhouse, the stands, the fans.” That’s important, Mooney opines, writing that “Wrigley Field is not for everyone and you have to recognize who can handle it.” Chavez proved capable of handling it in 2018, as the right-hander recorded a microscopic 1.15 ERA with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (9.7 K/9, 1.2 BB/9) in 39 innings after Chicago picked him up.

East Notes: Red Sox, Wright, Marlins, Orioles

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The latest on a few East Coast clubs:

  • After the Red Sox removed the injured Steven Wright from their ALDS roster on Saturday, the knuckleballer lamented (via Christopher Smith of MassLive.com), “This feels like a nightmare to be honest with you.” Wright aggravated his left knee Friday while warming up before Game 1 of the team’s series against the Yankees, Smith details. It’s the same knee on which Wright underwent surgery in May 2017, thereby keeping him out for most of last year and a large portion of this season. Wright added that “what we think is there’s loose bodies in there.” He’ll know more after a Monday visit in New York with Dr. Riley Williams III, the same doctor who performed his surgery 17 months ago. The loss of Wright’s an unfortunate development for Boston’s bullpen, as the 34-year-old pitched to a 1.52 ERA with a .191/.303/.314 batting line against in 29 2/3 innings in relief during the regular season.
  • The Marlins made a trade Saturday, sending right-hander Ryan Lillie to the Reds for international bonus pool money, and there may be more such moves on the way from the Fish. Miami’s “exploring other deals” that would enable it to net more international cash, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. The Marlins entered Saturday with the second-most international money available ($4.3MM) and are known to be in the market for Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, MLB.com’s top-ranked int’l prospect.
  • The Orioles – the only team with more international money to spend than the Fish – had five representatives in attendance for the showcase of Victor Victor Mesa, brother Victor Mesa Jr. (also an outfielder) and Cuban pitcher Sandy Gaston on Friday in Miami, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Baltimore sent vice president of baseball operations Brady Anderson, senior advisor Joe McIlvaine, special assignment scout John Stockstill and a pair of scouts (Dean Albany and Calvin Maduro), according to Kubatko, who hears that the O’s lack of a GM/manager won’t impact their pursuit of the Mesas. The Orioles said goodbye to both GM Dan Duquette and skipper Buck Showalter earlier this week.

Yankees Notes: Voit, Bird, Hicks

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The latest on the Yankees, who will try to draw even against the archrival Red Sox in Game 2 of the American League Division Series on Saturday after dropping the opener Friday:

  • Luke Voit may be on his way to becoming an “increasingly legitimate answer” at first base for the Yankees, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post observes. Acquired in what was then a low-key trade with the Cardinals in July, Voit slashed an astounding .322/.398/.671 (187 wRC+) with 15 home runs in 161 regular-season plate appearances, also posting the majors’ leading expected weighted on-base average (.440) among those with at least 150 PA. The 27-year-old continued to stand out during the Yankees’ first two playoff games – including their wild-card win over the Athletics – and general manager Brian Cashman said Friday (via Davidoff): “He’s certainly exceeded my expectations. He’s batting close to the middle of the lineup in the postseason. That’s pretty impressive stuff. And he’s certainly taken advantage of his opportunity playing here. I’m thankful for it.”
  • Voit was on New York’s “radar” before it acquired him for relievers Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos, Cashman revealed, adding that “our analytics crew had noticed him early on. In a lot of our meetings last year, he was someone we coveted from St. Louis, and we finally matched up.” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe sheds more light on the Voit addition, writing that assistant GM Tim Naehring has credited both the Yankees’ scouting staff and fellow AGM Mike Fishman – an “analytics guru,” per Cafardo – for the move. A 22nd-round pick of the Cardinals in 2013, Voit totaled just 137 PA with them – during which he batted a mediocre .240/.307/.432 (93 OPS+) – prior to the trade.
  • While Voit looks like the in-house favorite to start at first for the Yankees in 2019, Cashman’s not ready to give up on the 25-year-old Greg Bird, who has battled injuries and inconsistency during his 659-PA career (via Davidoff). “The way his season played out has been a head-scratcher. But the great thing about our game … is he’ll go home and try to regain all the accolades that were coming his way with performance and that can start next spring,” Cashman said of Bird, who hit an ugly .199/.286/.386 (81 wRC+) with 11 HRs in 311 trips to the plate during the regular season.
  • Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks aggravated his right hamstring Friday, forcing him to exit in the fourth inning, but it seems he dodged a serious injury. While Hicks won’t start Game 2 in Boston, he’ll be available off the bench, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays. Manager Aaron Boone said he “wouldn’t hesitate” to use Hicks, whom Brett Gardner replaced Friday and will once again fill in for on Saturday.

Sorting The Starting Pitchers Of The Upcoming Free-Agent Class

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With the MLB offseason only a few weeks away, most of the league’s teams are already focusing on how to improve their rosters for 2019. Many of those clubs will look to free agency to repair their starting rotations, though only a few will land the top arms who are expected to be available in Clayton Kershaw (if he opts out of the two years and $65MM remaining on his deal), Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel. Nevertheless, as you’ll see below, there should be some intriguing starters on the market who may be able to offer solid production at lesser costs next year.

Following the method MLBTR’s Steve Adams came up with last year, here are the top free agents-to-be with respect to velocity, missing bats, limiting walks and inducing weak contact in 2018. The list includes Kershaw, who seems likely to opt out, and also features several hurlers who pitched out of their teams’ bullpens in 2018. However, the numbers they compiled in relief aren’t factored in here. (Special thanks to FanGraphs for providing such valuable, easily accessible information.)

Hardest Throwers (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 92.4 mph

  1. Nathan Eovaldi: 97.2 mph fastball
  2. Charlie Morton: 96.6 mph
  3. Garrett Richards: 95.9 mph (note: Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in July)
  4. Matt Harvey: 94.1 mph
  5. Lance Lynn: 93.1 mph
  6. Martin Perez: 92.5 mph
  7. J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano: 92 mph
  8. Trevor Cahill and Matt Moore: 91.8 mph
  9. Derek Holland: 91.5 mph
  10. Jason Hammel: 91.4 mph

Top Strikeout Arms (FanGraphs Leaderboard)

League average = 21.6 K percentage, 8.25 K/9

  1. Patrick Corbin: 30.8 K%, 11.07 K/9
  2. Charlie Morton: 28.9 K%, 10.83 K/9
  3. Hyun-Jin Ryu: 27.5 K%, 9.73 K/9
  4. Garrett Richards: 26.9 K%, 10.26 K/9
  5. J.A. Happ: 26.3 K%, 9.78 K/9
  6. Anibal Sanchez: 24.6 K%, 8.96 K/9
  7. Clayton Kershaw: 23.9 K%, 8.65 K/9
  8. Lance Lynn: 22.7 K%, 9.16 K/9
  9. Trevor Cahill: 22.5 K%, 8.32 K/9
  10. Derek Holland: 22.3 K%, 8.52 K/9

Fewest Walks (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 8.0 BB percentage, 3.03 BB/9

  1. Nathan Eovaldi: 4.1 BB%, 1.51 BB/9
  2. Bartolo Colon: 4.2 BB%, 1.61 BB/9
  3. Clayton Kershaw: 4.5 BB/%, 1.62 BB/9
  4. Hyun-Jin Ryu: 4.6 BB%, 1.64 BB/9
  5. Matt Harvey: 5.1 BB%, 1.93 BB/9
  6. Jeremy Hellickson: 5.4 BB%, 1.97 BB/9
  7. Clay Buchholz: 5.6 BB%, 2.01 BB/9
  8. Patrick Corbin: 6.0 BB%, 2.16 BB/9
  9. Doug Fister: 6.6 BB%, 2.59 BB/9
  10. Dallas Keuchel: 6.6 BB%, 2.55 BB/9

Highest Groundball Rates (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 43 percent

  1.  Trevor Cahill and Dallas Keuchel: 53.7 percent
  2. Wade Miley: 52.8 percent
  3. Doug Fister: 50.4 percent
  4. Lance Lynn: 50 percent
  5. Martin Perez: 49.4 percent
  6. Garrett Richards: 49.3 percent
  7. Adam Wainwright: 48.7 percent
  8. Patrick Corbin: 48.5 percent
  9. Francisco Liriano: 48.3 percent
  10. Clayton Kershaw: 47.9 percent

Least Hard Contact (FanGraphs leaderboard)

League average = 35.6 percent

  1.  Jeremy Hellickson: 26.4 percent
  2. Adam Wainwright: 26.5 percent
  3. Dallas Keuchel: 28.1 percent
  4. Anibal Sanchez: 28.3 percent
  5. CC Sabathia: 28.5 percent
  6. Charlie Morton: 29.8 percent
  7. Marco Estrada: 29.9 percent
  8. J.A. Happ: 30.9 percent
  9. Gio Gonzalez: 31.7 percent
  10. Nathan Eovaldi: 33.2 percent

Many of the starters above won’t fetch big-money contracts this offseason, nor did they land high-paying deals last winter. Eovaldi, who’s still pitching with the title-contending Red Sox, has posted encouraging production in his first action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016. Meanwhile, Lynn, Liriano, Cahill, Holland, Miley, Sanchez, Colon, Hellickson, Buchholz, Fister, Sabathia and Estrada are all coming off either one-year major league contracts or minor league deals. At least a few of those pitchers recorded quality numbers this past regular season, showing that you don’t necessarily need to splurge in free agency to upgrade your rotation.

Reds Acquire Ryan Lillie From Marlins For International Spending Capacity

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The Reds have acquired right-hander Ryan Lillie from the Marlins for international bonus money, per C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic (Twitter link). $750K of availability is going to Miami in the swap, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter).

Lillie, 22, was a fifth round pick of the Marlins in the 2017 draft.  Though he showed plus command (1.12 BB/9 for Low-A Greensboro this season) in his initial low-level taste, Lillie seems little more than organizational depth at this point: at season’s end, he didn’t rank in the top thirty for a mid-pack Marlins system in any major publication.  Baseball America (subscription required) does note that he has a chance to be a back-end reliever, lauding his ’above-average’ slider, though the Marlins used him almost exclusively in a starting role.

For the Marlins, the incentive seems clear: stockpile as much international bonus pool money as possible in hopes of luring star free agent Victor Victor Mesa to Miami.  The Fish, who began the day with $4.3MM in pool money, have baseball’s second-highest total in that department and figure to be key players for the 22-year-old when the time comes.

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