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Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Angels

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In the opening piece in this series, we looked at the Philadelphia Phillies, a team almost certain to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. Next we traveled to southern California to see if the deep pockets of the Los Angeles Dodgers would make them a major player this winter. Once again, in addition to being a fun look at a key market participant, the Phillies piece also sets forth some key assumptions to be used in this series regarding financial information available to the public.

Today, we head 30 miles southeast to Anaheim to check in on an Angels team still seeking to win its first playoff game during Mike Trout’s historic career.

Team Leadership

Unlike the rival Dodgers, Angels ownership has been a pillar of stability since advertising magnate Arte Moreno purchased the club in April 2003. Moreno is perhaps best known for embarking on an aggressive marketing strategy after taking control, rebranding a club that had been known as the California or Anaheim Angels since 1965 as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. After carrying that name for a decade and surviving lawsuits from the City of Anaheim regarding the rebranding, the club finally reverted to its original name in 2016: the Los Angeles Angels.

It’s difficult to argue with the results. While Moreno purchased the team for $180 million in 2003, Forbes projected that team value had increased tenfold in the 15 years that followed, reaching $1.8 billion as of April 2018.

The baseball side of the operation is headed by a model of persistence, general manager Billy Eppler. While working as assistant general manager under Brian Cashman with the Yankees, Eppler interviewed for the Angels general manager job in 2011, losing out to Jerry Dipoto. However, when Dipoto resigned during the 2015 season due to a rift with manager Mike Scioscia, Eppler leaped at the opportunity to return home to Southern California and secured the Angels job.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Angels, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Using this time frame works well for the Angels as it captures nearly all of Moreno’s run of ownership. After years of spending like a mid-market club, Moreno boosted the Angels to top-10 spending during his first full season in 2004 and they have remained there ever since. Here is what the Angels have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

Angels spending spiked dramatically under Moreno’s first decade of ownership, more than doubling the spending levels employed by the Walt Disney Company during their brief period of ownership prior to Moreno. However, after reaching $151.4 million in 2012, the spending rate has largely plateaued with remarkable consistency over the last three seasons.

The Angels have largely eschewed massive commitments in the amateur sphere. This is likely due in large part to the club being burned on their $8 million deal with Cuban infielder Roberto Baldoquin. Signed in January 2015, the 24-year-old Baldoquin has a putrid wRC+ of 72 for his minor league career. He is yet to reach Triple-A, let alone the Major Leagues. Yet because of the size of the signing bonus that the team gave Baldoquin, the Angels found themselves in the international amateur penalty box for the next two signing cycles, severely limiting their ability to swim with the big fish internationally. Accordingly, their Major League spending is an excellent indicator of total spending.

Future Liabilities

Unlike some other big-market clubs that have handed out significant dollars while retaining salary sheet flexibility, the Angels are largely wedded to their big contracts with five eight-figure AAV contracts extending through at least 2020.

Here is a look at their future guarantees with the peach highlight indicative of a club option for Kole Calhoun.  As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

There are some seriously significant numbers here. While it should start with the all-world Trout, we instead begin with the final three years on what quickly became an albatross deal for Albert Pujols. The Angels now owe Pujols “just” $87 million for his final three seasons, pushing them closer to a time in which his contract won’t all-but-guarantee him significant playing time. Perhaps the need to use Shohei Ohtani as a designated hitter in his return from elbow surgery will push Pujols toward more time on the bench, where he should be at this stage in his career. Unfortunately, the payments to Pujols won’t stop just because he stops playing: Pujols will receive a 10-year, $10 million personal services contract following the completion of his career. I presume that he will retire following his 2021 guarantee.

The other two numbers that jump off the page are the commitments to outfielders Trout and Justin Upton. Both players provided the Angels with good production in 2018 — OK, Trout was a hair better than “good” — so it comes as no surprise that they top the payroll spreadsheet. Both talents figure to occupy core lineup locations throughout their deals.

A pair of infielders follow as Andrelton Simmons and his elite glove come with two more years of below-market control while Zack Cozart will look to rebound after a rough debut season in Anaheim. Neither guarantee is terribly significant, and if the Angels need to move money at some point, I expect that Cozart would be a good starting point.

Finally, we reach Calhoun. The right fielder followed three consecutive above-average seasons from 2014-16 with a solid year in 2017 before slipping all the way to replacement level in 2018. If the Angels find themselves wanting to move salary to make another acquisition, Calhoun would seem to be a logical candidate to find a new home. Ken Rosenthal hears the same.

Moving to arbitration, the Angels feature only modest and even genuinely low projected salaries. Factor in that Matt Shoemaker may be non-tendered, and the Angels figure to allot a comparatively small amount of their total payroll to arbitration-eligible talent. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

In addition to Shoemaker, JC Ramirez is a possible non-tender candidate. It’s also possible the pitchers agree to contracts south of what arbitration would be expected to provide.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Simply put, neither Moreno nor Eppler has had much to say recently about spending, so we find ourselves looking to prior offseasons for guidance. Last winter, Moreno commented that the Angels lost money in 2016 and 2017, yet it didn’t stop him from authorizing a similar payroll in 2018. He hasn’t imposed any austerity measures during his ownership tenure, so that jives well with what he said last year.

Are the Angels a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

As fun as it would be to see Harper and Trout share the outfield or to see Machado and Simmons vacuum up every ball hit to the left side of the infield, it’s tough to see a fit for either young star here. A look through the Angels roster shows some strong position player talent and a handful of good, youngish starting pitchers. Unfortunately, the best starting pitching in question — Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and Shohei Ohtani — all come with significant current and/or recent injuries. Los Angeles does have young righty Jaime Barria around, but he looks more like a good back-end option than an impact starter for a contender. Expect to see the Angels focus their spending efforts on an arm or two.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

The Angels’ payroll has been remarkably consistent over the years. Despite Moreno’s spending increases during his ownership tenure, they have all been of the gradual variety with the sole considerable jump that was unaccompanied by a corresponding dip in the prior year occurring in 2011 when spending spiked $20.7 million in one year as a result of the Vernon Wells acquisition.

With all of that said…

Moreno is the one current owner in Major League Baseball who appears likely to go the way of Mike Ilitch, incurring significant losses to keep his team in contention each year as he ages. Moreno purchased the club shortly after their sole World Series title in 2002, so he is yet to hoist a trophy as owner. To be clear: this is baseless speculation. As far as I can tell, no writers or front office folks have leaked information indicating that Moreno plans to break the bank this winter. But would I be stunned if Moreno authorized a $200 million payroll so he could pair Harper and Trout together for the next two years before allowing both to leave via free agency for Trout and an opt-out clause for Harper? Absolutely not. And in that scenario, the Angels would jettison Calhoun, minimizing the payroll impact of Harper’s addition.

It’s still more likely that the Angels focus on pitching acquisitions this winter — Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin make sense as targets — but if payroll hits $200 million, they would have room for both Harper/Machado and the needed pitching. For now, let’s assume they non-tender Shoemaker and Ramirez but hold onto Calhoun as a bounceback candidate.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $36.6 million

Marlins Claim Julian Fernandez

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The Marlins announced that they’ve claimed right-hander Julian Fernandez off waivers from the Giants. Their 40-man roster now has 36 players.

The Giants selected Fernandez, 22, out of the Rockies organization with the second pick in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. However, the right-hander suffered a UCL tear in Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery in early April. He never pitched in a regular-season game for the Giants, instead spending the season on the 60-day disabled list.

Fernandez should be recovered early in the 2019 season, but he’ll retain his Rule 5 eligibility next season after spending the year on the disabled list. Miami will technically be able to give him a month-long run in the minors as an injury rehab stint, but after that he’d need to be called up and spend 90 days on the active roster or else be put through waivers and offered back to the Rockies. That makes him somewhat of a long shot to actually stick with the Marlins, though as a team that won’t be in the playoff picture next season, they’re the type of club that can afford to carry an intriguing arm of this nature.

In 58 innings with Class-A Asheville in 2017, Fernandez worked to a 3.26 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate. More than his numbers to date, however, the Marlins are betting on Fernandez’s huge velocity (as were the Giants). He’s been clocked in triple digits with his heater when healthy.

Deadline To Set 40-Man Rosters Before Rule 5 Draft Is Tonight

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The deadline for Major League teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight at 8pm ET. As such, baseball fans should expect to see a flurry of activity over the next 11 hours. There will be likely be players designated for assignment, outrighted and claimed off waivers in addition to multiple smaller-scale trades as teams make room on their own 40-man rosters and also pick up fringe 40-man candidates out of other organizations.

The Rule 5 Draft will take place on the final day of next month’s Winter Meetings (Dec. 13) and allow clubs with open space on the 40-man roster to select certain players not on the 40-man roster out of other organizations. Rule 5 eligibility is dependent on the age at which a player signed and that player’s experience.

A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball with is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster today. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster today. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2015 class, high school draftees out of the 2014 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2014-15 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has a rundown of the players in each team’s top 30 prospect rankings who need to be protected today or else be exposed to potential Rule 5 selection. Of particular note, eight prospects who find themselves on MLB.com’s top 100 prospect rankings need protection, though there’s virtually no chance that any from that bunch are left off their respective rosters. Readers will also want to check out an exhaustive team-by-team look at some candidates to be added to each team’s 40-man roster, courtesy of Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource, as well as a team-by-team look at each club’s decisions from the staff over at Baseball America.

Here’s a quick rundown of the number of open 40-man spaces each team presently has to work with as of this morning:

American League West

American League Central

American League East

National League West

National League Central

National League East

Adrian Beltre Retires

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After a brilliant career that spanned parts of 21 seasons, Adrian Beltre announced today that he is retiring from baseball. Via a Rangers press release, Beltre has issued the following statement:

After careful consideration and many sleepless nights, I have made the decision to retire from what I’ve been doing my whole life, which is playing baseball, the game I love.

I have thought about it a lot and although I appreciate all the opportunities and everything that baseball has given me, it’s time to call it a career. I have enjoyed the privilege of playing professional baseball since I was 15 years old. I have been blessed to have played 21 seasons at the highest level in Major League Baseball.

I want to thank God, my amazing wife Sandra for your unwavering and unconditional love, support and understanding throughout my entire baseball career, my three awesome children, Cassie, A.J and Camila for being the best baseball kids, my parents, and my entire family for all your love and support.

I also want to thank my agents, Scott Boras, Mike Fiore and the entire Boras Corp. for always believing in my talent. A huge THANK YOU goes to the numerous teammates, managers, coaches, and staff members from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox and especially the Texas Rangers. These past eight seasons playing in a Rangers’ uniform have been the best of my career and were made possible thanks to Rangers’ owners Ray Davis, Bob Simpson, and Neil Leibman, General Manager Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the late Don Welke.

I also owe a huge part of my success in Texas to the amazing Rangers’ fans. You guys are the best!

I also have to acknowledge and thank Tommy Lasorda for believing in this young kid from the Dominican Republic when others thought I was too young to be called up to the Big Leagues.

To all my fans in the Dominican Republic, the United States and Latin America, my sincerest THANK YOU for your continuous support throughout my career. While I will forever cherish the memories from my time playing the greatest game on earth, I am excited to become a fulltime husband and father, and I am ready to take on the next chapter of my life.

It’s been one hell of a ride!

Muchas gracias,

Adrian Beltre

The march to Cooperstown now begins in earnest for Beltre, one of the greatest third basemen to ever play the game. Signed by the Dodgers out of Santo Domingo in 1994, Beltre debuted in the Majors as a 19-year-old just four years later and never looked back. While his first season didn’t yield quality results, Beltre improved greatly in his age-20 campaign and cemented himself as a star in the years to follow. Beltre ultimately accrued more than 20 years of Major League service time, spending at least five years with each of the Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers (in addition to one year with the Red Sox in 2010).

Already a highly regarded player in the first half of his career, Beltre is the rare player who actually improved with his age. While most players begin to fade in their early to mid-30s, Beltre seemingly won a staredown with Father Time. Incredibly, he’d never made an All-Star team prior to his 31st birthday, but he was named to four Midsummer Classic rosters over the final nine seasons of his career. After hitting a combined .270/.325/.453 with superlative defense from 1998-2009, Beltre exploded to hit .307/.358/.514 from 2010-18. Along that remarkable 21-year journey, his glovework scarcely deteriorated, making him one of the best all-around players in the game for the better part of two decades.

Beltre will retire as a career .286/.339/.480 hitter, with 477 home runs, 636 doubles, 38 triples and 121 stolen bases on his resume. He totaled 3166 hits as a Major Leaguer, scored 1524 runs and knocked in another 1707 runs. In addition to his four All-Star nods — which, in retrospect, was far too few — Beltre won four Silver Sluggers, five Gold Gloves and a pair of Platinum Gloves. Even that considerable amount of hardware feels light — particularly on the Gold Glove front, as Beltre is the runaway all-time leader in Defensive Runs Saved at any position since the stat was introduced in 2003. No one is even close to Beltre’s towering mark of 222, with Andrelton Simmons’ 184 DRS currently sitting in a distant second place.

Beltre earned $219MM in one of the greatest careers we baseball fans will ever have the privilege to witness. Fangraphs tallies his career at 84 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference pegs him at a whopping 95.7 WAR. As surefire a Hall of Famer as one can find, Beltre will take his place among the game’s elite in five years once he’s eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals had a thrilling season on the whole, but a tumultuous roller coaster ride bookended by significant winning and losing streaks ultimately ended on a low note as they missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season. That’s a lengthy drought by their standards, as fans hadn’t yet been forced to endure such a streak during the new millenium.

On the one hand, the club has a formidable crew under team control for 2019, including several franchise mainstays, and can expect a reasonable degree of improvement from its wealth of young talent. On the other hand, its veteran core includes eight players over 30 years of age (six are at least 32), and they could be facing some decline in production and/or injury risk from many members of that group. The club’s front office will surely be taking a slew of complex factors into account as they try to put together a contender for 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart |St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Outlook]

Even after a relatively quiet trade deadline, the Cardinals surged to the forefront of the NL Central race with a torrid August that saw them go 22-6. But a mediocre 12-15 September cost them a chance to compete in the 2018 playoffs, proving that even the surprising midseason replacement of longtime manager Mike Matheny wasn’t enough to flip the club’s fate after a middling 47-46 start to the season. After three consecutive years of seeing their season end with game number 162, the perennially successful Cardinals organization could be facing a sense of urgency to right the ship and get back to October in order to satiate the fan base.

It’s difficult to tell where that process begins. While the team is loaded with fan favorites and high-caliber players in every area of the roster, they’re also staring down one or more significant question marks in their rotation, bullpen, outfield and infield. With their current construction, they’ve got an obviously good team. Unfortunately that’s not likely to cut the mustard in a division where they’re likely to face stiff competition from the Cubs and the now-soaring Brewers, both of whom have younger cores.

One of the simplest avenues would be to add several wins in one fell swoop, by paying for one of the market’s elite talents. The Cardinals have been connected to Bryce Harper this offseason, and have been speculated upon as a potential landing spot for Manny Machado as well. Either would fit easily into the club’s puzzle, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend big on a marquee free agent after being putting in strong bids for Jason Heyward and David Price in offseasons past. It’s also worth pointing out that they worked out a deal to acquire Giancarlo Stanton last season before the slugger used his no-trade clause to veto the move to St. Louis. While any realistic offer to add one of the market’s two biggest prizes would surely dwarf any of the three aforementioned contract sums, the Redbirds’ involvement serves as an indicator that adding a superstar bat lies within the realm of possibility.

But the market for both Harper and Machado comes with strong competition, so we can easily assume that the Cards are exploring several contingency plans. For example, the club will likely be motivated to make an upgrade at the hot corner if Machado lands elsewhere. Carpenter is aging and probably profiles best at first base at this point in his career, and Josh Donaldson might be a fitting target after previous reports of interest from St. Louis. Even Mike Moustakas could serve as an interesting add. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees could explore the market for Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar in order to address their rotation, though it’s questionable whether the Cards would have any interest in giving up the type of young arm necessary to get a deal done. (Last night’s trade of James Paxton to the Yankees could also shift New York’s focus from the trade market to free agency for their remaining rotation needs.)

Turning an eye to the outfield, St. Louis may have in-house alternatives to signing Harper, should they lose out in that auction. Rookie Harrison Bader certainly earned a foothold on the center field job, and Ozuna is a lock to hold down left field. While Harper’s presence in right would make for a formidable outfield alignment, Fowler probably can’t be counted out as dead weight after a single horrendous season. Beyond him, the club has former top prospect Tyler O’Neill champing at the bit to follow up on a promising debut.

Absent from that list of in-house options is slugger Jose Martinez, who had an excellent offensive showing but proved to be an outright defensive liability. With that in mind, it seems unlikely he’ll be a part of their outfield plans come springtime (though the possibility shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, either), and his performance at first base even begs questions about whether his glove can be relied upon at all. Overall, the returns on playing him were positive; he yielded an above-average fWAR figure thanks to his excellent contact and on-base skills coupled with above-average power. But if the Cardinals wanted to get creative, they could look to explore shopping the slugger to American League team that might value him a bit more highly thanks to the ability to protect him from being entirely exposed defensively. There’d certainly be a number of suitors.

The bullpen is perhaps the Cardinals’ most glaring area of concern. A number of statistical shortcomings (including the second-highest walk rate of any ’pen in the game) led to a -4.54 WPA figure that would have stood as the worst in all of baseball save for the disastrous showing by a largely inexperienced Marlins relief corps. Norris, who held down the closer role for most of the season and was their bullpen’s most consistent fixture, is set to depart as a free agent. If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll probably find it necessary to find at least one viable alternative on the free agent market.

Make no mistake, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be desperate to find anyone with closer experience. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak has said the Cardinals believe flamethrowing righty Jordan Hicks could succeed in that role (though as always that could simply be a negotiating technique), but that doesn’t mean he’ll actually have the job on opening day. The market is littered with former closers (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera), but it’s not difficult to imagine them instead rolling with Hicks and adding an upside lefty like Andrew Miller or Zach Britton. Speculation on specific names aside, it seems inevitable that the bullpen is an area to which they’ll allocate at least some money.

It’s worth noting that St. Louis will almost inevitably see some positive regression in relief performance, too. It’s more likely that Brett Cecil will rebound somewhat than that he’ll endure another career-low performance. Likewise, it’s improbable that the usually-durable Luke Gregerson will spend such an excessive amount of time on the DL. They won’t have Greg Holland walking nearly eight batters per nine innings across half a season’s worth of work, while Sam Tuivailala and Tyler Lyons represent other possible instances of addition by subtraction. Meanwhile John Brebbia, Dominic Leone and Dakota Hudson all had encouraging showings. In other words, while the Cardinals have some work to do in order to cover high-leverage innings, their situation isn’t quite as eyebrow-raising as a team like the Indians, for example.

Martinez, Wacha, Mikolas and rookie sensation Jack Flaherty seem like good bets to return to the rotation for 2019, while Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver and Adam Wainwright all in the mix for starts as well depending on health and performance. There’s room for improvement in their rotation, but it’s also not a bad cast overall; certainly other contenders are facing more daunting rotation questions. The situation gets murkier beyond 2019, though, as the contracts of Wacha, Mikolas and Wainwright all expire at season’s end. For that reason, we could see the Redbirds check in on free agents or trade targets whom they could keep in the fold for multiple seasons beyond the next. There’s no real urgency to do so, but there could easily be motivation given the right price and player.

The Cardinals are also an organization known for locking up many of their young players pre-arbitration, and this spring could present many opportunities to do just that. A wave of young players impressed last season, and the ever-opportunistic Cardinals brass could look to capitalize on the chance on some early extensions. Flaherty, Hicks, Bader and O’Neill could represent a strong core for years to come, and gaining additional control and cost-certainty over some of that group could allow the Cardinals to feel secure as some of their older veterans depart or retire in the near future.

Whatever path the Cardinals take this offseason, it seems unlikely to be a quiet one. With motivation to end an unusually long playoff drought, the organization will want to set new manager Mike Shildt up for success. They’ve got money to spend, a reasonable amount of prospect capital, and just enough positional flexibility on the roster to allow them to fit the right player into the picture if the opportunity arises. That should present a comfortable cavalcade of potential strategies to one simple end: add enough wins to remain competitive with a pair of formidable divisional opponents.

2019 Competitive Balance Draft Pick Order

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Major League Baseball has set the order for Competitive Balance Rounds A and B of next year’s draft, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Those rounds, which take place after the completion of the first and second rounds, respectively, are comprised of picks awarded to teams that are considered in the bottom 10 in terms of market size and/or revenue.

As Mayo explains, MLB now utilizes a new approach to determining Competitive Balance order rather than a lottery, as had been done in previous drafts since the Competitive Balance rounds’ inception prior to the 2013 season. The league applied a formula that took into account total revenue and winning percentage among the 14 teams that received Competitive Balance picks. Based on the results of that formula, the Rays, Reds, A’s, Brewers, Twins and Marlins were awarded the six picks in Comp Round A in 2017, with the other eight teams (D-backs, Padres, Rockies, Indians, Royals, Pirates, Orioles, Cardinals) all falling into Comp Round B.

Under the new system, those two groups will simply flip on an annual basis, meaning the six teams that were awarded Comp Round A picks in 2017 comprised the teams selecting in Comp Round B. Likewise, the eight teams that comprised Comp Round B in 2017 swapped to Comp Round A in 2018. Now, of course, we’re back to the starting point, with the formula spitting out new ordering for each group of teams. Notably, the Pirates will pick in both rounds, as they’ve received the No. 37 overall pick as compensation for failing to sign last year’s No. 36 overall pick, Gunnar Hoglund.

According to Mayo, the rounds will play out as follows:

Round A

34. Marlins
35. Rays
36. Reds
37. Pirates (compensation for Hoglund)
38. Athletics
39. Brewers
40. Twins

Round B

71. Royals
72. Orioles
73. Pirates
74. Padres
75. Diamondbacks
76. Rockies
77. Indians
78. Cardinals

It should also be noted that this isn’t yet likely to represent the final draft order. Competitive Balance draft selections are the only picks that are eligible to be traded from one team to another under baseball’s collective bargaining agreement. These picks can only be traded during the regular season, though, and each pick can only be traded one time.

The specific placement of these picks in the overall draft order figures to change as well as draft-pick compensation from qualified offers slightly alters the ordering of the picks both surrounding the Competitive Balance rounds. (We recently broke down the possible impact to teams that could lose qualified free agents and also to those that could sign them.) Generally speaking, though, this serves as a rough guideline for next summer’s draft and helps to provide a clearer picture of which teams will have the largest draft pools.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Indians endured the heartbreak of another early exit from the postseason in 2018, and they’re likely to suffer the mass exodus of nearly a dozen free agents. That, combined with several impending player salary increases, a shortage of top prospects, and the looming return to relevance of some rebuilding AL Central teams, poses some difficult questions about the Tribe’s contention window. They’ll enter the offseason foraging for creative (and budget-conscious) ways to address them.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH: $25MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $19MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF: $17MM through 2019 (includes $2.5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $10,412,500 through 2019 (includes $662.5K buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Yonder Alonso, 1B: $9MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout on 2020 vesting/club option)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $14.5MM through 2020 (includes $1MM buyout on 2021 club option)
  • Yan Gomes, C: $9MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $21MM through 2021 (includes $2MM option on 2022 club option)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $6.9MM through 2020 (includes $900K in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Dan Otero, RP: $1.4MM through 2019 (includes $100K buyout on 2020 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cleveland Indians Depth Chart | Cleveland Indians Payroll Outlook]

While the Indians have enjoyed a sustained run of dominance over the rest of the American League Central for the past three seasons, they’ve fallen short of a championship each year, and every time in a fashion more disappointing than the last. Three consecutive losses have bumped them from the playoffs all three times, and they’re now facing yet another club record payroll (north of $145MM) in a market too small in size to support such a figure.

Worse yet, that payroll estimate comes in spite of the very likely departures of several players who’ve been key contributors during the Tribe’s run of success, including Brantley, Allen, Miller and Chisenhall. The subtraction of those contracts from the books are more than negated by gargantuan expected arbitration raises for Bauer and Lindor, in combination with 10 players who are contractually guaranteed raises on their 2018 salaries. Put more simply, Cleveland is set to subtract talent while adding payroll.

It’s not as though there’s significant cavalry on its way from the farm, either. Four of the club’s five top prospects are still playing at Class A or below, and their highest-ranked outfield prospect (their biggest area of need) in the upper minors is Oscar Mercado, who sits at #15 on MLB Pipeline’s Indians prospect rankings. Only #1-ranked Triston McKenzie appears primed to make an impact in 2019, and the Tribe’s rotation already has five locks in the form of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber.

That’s perhaps a large part of the reason the Tribe is reportedly willing to listen to offers on Kluber and Carrasco this winter, in addition to some other pricey veterans. The logic behind it makes plenty of sense: if the Indians can deal from a strength by trading one of their top starters for a cheap, controllable outfielder who can help now, they’d receive some salary relief while improving their outlook further down the road, and all without greatly diminishing the strength of their 2019 ballclub. After all, McKenzie’s ceiling is nothing to scoff at, and without much divisional competition to worry about (again) in 2019, the club might be less concerned with its regular season starting five than it is with its postseason starting four. And one could certainly argue that there’s no better time to reap a generous return for a premium starting pitcher, given the number of pitching-needy contenders and relative dearth of alternatives on the trade market and in free agency.

Of course, with Kluber being a two-time Cy Young winner and one of the main faces of the franchise, it might be hard for fans to stomach losing him in an effort driven in part by a desire to shed salary. Meanwhile, trading Carrasco for even a player owed the league minimum would save the club less than eight figures next season, so while such a move could still help to fill a hole elsewhere on the roster, it wouldn’t go as far in the way of shedding financial obligations. These factors, along with the immense value each pitcher is expected to deliver on his contract in 2019 (and beyond), make it far from a sure thing that either will end up in a different uniform before Opening Day. Rather, the notion of the Tribe trading one of their top two arms should be seen only as one potential card in their hand as they work to solve a complicated roster puzzle headed into next year.

The biggest gap in that puzzle, as we touched upon earlier, lies in the outfield. Brantley, who’s been a mainstay since his MLB debut in 2009, is set to test free agency for the first time in his career; reports say he’s almost certainly not returning to Cleveland. Cabrera, Davis and Guyer, likewise, are vulnerable to being signed by rival teams at this juncture. Martin, for whom they traded prior to the 2018 non-waiver deadline, is expected to make a full recovery from a life-threatening bacterial infection in time for opening day, but outside of him — assuming he is indeed able to get back to full health — the club’s options are extraordinarily fallible. Kipnis hasn’t had a productive offensive season since 2016. Greg Allen has played below replacement level thus far in 330 career plate appearances. Naquin’s career is full of ups and downs and there’s no telling whether he’ll completely rebound from his recent hip surgery. Former top prospect Bradley Zimmer limped offensively in 2018 and won’t return for quite some time due to a shoulder injury he suffered in Triple-A.

Outside of trading a starting pitcher, the Tribe would appear to have few ways to address their outfield need. They already swung a minor trade with the Pirates that netted them major-leaguer Jordan Luplow, though he’s more of a lottery ticket than an established, reliable piece. One possible avenue would be to cash in prospect capital for a talented corner outfield option; certainly MLB Pipeline’s #84 prospect Nolan Jones could get a conversation started for some solid targets. And with monetary funds largely tapped out as things stand at present, they’re highly unlikely to afford a reliable solution on the free agent market.

Then again, that financial outlook could easily change if the club is able to find a taker for some of their more expensive veterans. Encarnacion and Kipnis, for example, are both on the wrong side of the aging curve. The two combined for just 3.2 fWAR in 2018 but are owed a massive sum of $36.5MM for their services next season. Certainly neither player would be viewed as having any sort of surplus value on his respective salary — quite the contrary — and that’s without even considering the $7.5MM in total buyouts on the pair’s contract options for 2020. Still, either could provide a method of shedding salary if the right team were to show interest. Encarnacion has plenty of pop left in his bat, and could be a fit for a handful of American League clubs. Young OBP machine Yandy Diaz could perhaps step in and fill the DH opening should the parrot fly out of Cleveland. Kipnis, meanwhile, could theoretically be replaced with the addition or promotion of an infielder or outfielder, so there are plenty of options to fill his shoes. Certainly plenty of teams would be interested in bringing a league-average middle infielder into the fold.

Of course, the Tribe’s questions marks are not limited to the outfield. Perhaps an even more pressing issue is the club’s bullpen, which finished in the AL’s bottom three in ERA, FIP and fWAR, and has been ravaged by the free agent departures of Allen, Miller and Perez. Of the group set to return, only Hand finished 2018 with an ERA below 4.00. It’s worth mentioning that Salazar is somewhat of a wild card, but overall the outlook is bleak.

It’s unclear what viable options the club has in the way of improving its relief corps to the level necessary to compete with other powerhouse teams, but the “throw a bunch of spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks” method employed by the club in 2018 was a pronounced failure and hopefully won’t be employed again next season. The in-house group is likely to see some positive regression, of course, but creative methods of bringing in reinforcements are likely to be high on the club’s priority list.

While there are certainly plenty of issues to address for 2019, the long-term outlook brings an entirely different cornucopia of questions. While the Indians have a wide variety of high-end young talent locked up for the near future (Lindor, Ramirez, Clevinger and Hand all come to mind), those players will continue to get significantly more expensive over the next three seasons. During that time, their already-expensive veterans are more likely to decline than they are to repeat their recent performances, and unlike in years past they’ve got very few promising players under team control beyond the next three seasons. The AL Central won’t be a cakewalk forever; teams like the White Sox and Tigers are already past the initial teardown phases of their respective rebuilds and figure to be on the upswing in the coming seasons. All of a sudden, the Tribe is facing some very real longevity concerns, and it’s not unthinkable that they could make some creative moves this offseason as a means of addressing them.

Of course, even if they made next to no major moves from this point through spring training, they’re a contender in every sense of the word. Their rotation remains one of the best in baseball, and they have two of the game’s best young position-player talents in Lindor and Ramirez. The path to a fourth consecutive AL Central Championship doesn’t have much in the way of serious obstructions, so any and all acquisitions the Indians make this winter will simply culminate in slight statistical improvements upon their postseason odds. While they aren’t likely to enter next October as favorites, they’ll have a chance, and as we saw with the 2016 club, sometimes an outside shot can carry a team a long way.

The recently (and unofficially) extended Mike Chernoff has a wide variety of issues to address this offseason, but he’s also got a wide variety of options at his disposal and a relatively low floor as far as overall competitive makeup. There will be some suspense as far as who might stay or go, however, and that very aspect of the club’s offseason outlook means that there will be several interesting storylines to follow. Tribe fans will certainly have an entertaining winter ahead of them in that regard.

Trade Chatter: Segura, Goldschmidt, Astros, Gomes

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After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.

Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:

  • In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
  • While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ’Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
  • Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
  • As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.

Yankees Acquire James Paxton

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The Yankees have officially struck a deal to acquire lefty James Paxton from the Mariners, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) first reported. Top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield is coming to Seattle in return, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Completing the return are outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams and righty Erik Swanson, per Corey Brock of The Athletic (via Twitter).

This is the first major move of the winter market, bringing a top-shelf starter to a New York club that has long been rumored to be seeking to boost its rotation. Having already inked CC Sabathia earlier in the winter, the Yanks now appear unlikely to pursue more than one additional starter, though they’ll still have ample financial flexibility to go after any available pitchers.

Meanwhile, the M’s have now kicked off a winter in which they’ll attempt to walk a tightrope act of staying at least reasonably competitive while enhancing their roster’s long-term outlook. Paxton just turned 30 earlier this month, but he’s down to two more season of arbitration control, so he was one of the team’s more obvious assets to market. Previously, the club sent out regular catcher Mike Zunino, another player with two seasons to go until free agency.

In adding Paxton, the Yankees aren’t just getting a highly talented pitcher. They’re getting one at an eminently reasonable rate of pay. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project Paxton to earn $9.0MM this winter; if he turns in a great year, he’ll get a nice raise on that amount, but that would also mean the club would be more than happy to pay it. Ultimately, these salary levels land a far sight shy of Paxton’s open-market value — at least, that is, assuming he’s at full health.

At his best, Paxton is among the game’s most dominant rotation pieces. Aptly dubbed the Big Maple, the Canadian southpaw has struck out 11 batters per nine over the past two seasons while averaging a reasonable 2.4 BB/9. That’s rare air for a starter. His ERA ballooned a bit this year to 3.76, owing to a few extra long balls, but he posted a 2.98 mark in 2017. Plus, ERA estimators were quite enamored of his output in the just-completed campaign (3.24 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA).

Of course, this all comes with a caveat. Paxton has never thrown a full MLB campaign, with his 28 starts in 2018 representing a career high. He also just barely (by a third of a frame) passed the 160 innings-pitched threshold for the first time last year. Health issues remain an ever-present concern and will perhaps dictate the outcome of this swap from the Yankees’ perspective.

The Yankees will hang their hat on the fact that Paxton mostly avoided significant injury issues in 2018. He missed time after being struck by a comebacker, which was obviously just an instance of poor fortune, after previously being sidelined for lower back inflammation. Those sorts of maladies aren’t the real concern, though. Previously, Paxton has missed time with forearm, shoulder, and biceps problems.

The good news is that Paxton has delivered a pristine version of his power arsenal when he has been able to unleash it. He has averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer over each of the past two seasons. And his swinging-strike rate is still on the rise, moving up to a personal-best 14.3% in 2018. If he can carry that forward, even if it’s not quite for a full 32-start campaign, the Yankees will likely be quite pleased with this move.

Turning back to the Mariners side, it’s still a bit difficult to know whether this portends quite a few more moves or whether the club will mostly pick around the edges from this point forward. Certainly, the organization has other marketable assets — as well as some under-water contracts that it might look to unload. It was only two weeks ago that we first learned of the Mariners’ somewhat surprising plans to move some key MLB assets this winter. The shape of the final roster remains very much in doubt, though GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today that the club is focused on a 2020-2021 window. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter).

It’s worth noting that, in both this and the Zunino swap, the M’s have brought back players who figure to represent near-term MLB contributors. If things break right, then, the club could rebound quickly. Here, the key asset is Sheffield, a 22-year-old southpaw who originally went to New York along with Clint Frazier in the swap that send Andrew Miller to the Indians. Scouts and prospect hounds alike have long loved Sheffield for his stuff. But questions remain as to whether he’ll every full command the full arsenal sufficiently to reach his ceiling at the game’s highest level.

It’s not as if Sheffield tends to have difficulties finding the zone. He has averaged only 3.4 walks per nine innings over his five minor-league seasons, which is hardly elite but also isn’t a concerning number, standing alone. But an inability to fully dictate the location of your pitches can obviously tell in other ways, particularly against major-league hitters.

Thus far, Sheffield has managed just fine with his explosive three-pitch mix, which is led by a fastball that occasionally edges into the upper-nineties. In 2018, he turned in a 2.48 ERA in 116 games at the Double-A and (mostly) Triple-A level. He also briefly debuted in the bigs; while things didn’t go well in his three relief outings, that hardly means much for the future.

While he’s not nearly so well-known as Sheffield, Swanson is also a near-term possibility for the Mariners’ active roster. He’ll need to take a 40-man spot from the jump, as he’d otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The 25-year-old joined Sheffield at Triple-A this year after a dominant stop at the penultimate level of the minors to begin the season.

After arriving at the Yanks’ top affiliate, Swanson worked to a 3.86 ERA over 72 1/3 innings. He was touched for ten long balls, but otherwise impressed with 9.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Prospect watchers tend to view Swanson as a back-of-the-rotation possibility, rather than any kind of frontline starter, but that’d certainly be a welcome outcome for the Mariners.

Thompson-Williams, meanwhile, reached the High-A level last year at 23 years of age. He did turn in an impressive output there, slashing .290/.356/.517 and racking up 17 home runs and 17 steals in 375 plate appearances. That represented a big leap forward for the former fifth-round pick, so it remains to be seen whether he can continue to develop as he reaches the high minors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Dodgers

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In the opening piece in this series, we looked at the Philadelphia Phillies, a team almost certain to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. In addition to being a fun look at a key market participant, that piece also sets forth some key assumptions to be used in this series regarding financial information available to the public.

With Philadelphia in our rear view mirror, we turn our attention to the biggest spender in recent years: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Team Leadership

Despite being a marquee franchise, the Dodgers found themselves embroiled in a quagmire during much of the last decade, with Frank McCourt’s tumultuous ownership ending with a bankruptcy sale to Guggenheim Partners in 2012. Guggenheim — consisting of Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, Peter Guber, Bobby Patton, and Todd Boehly — added Billie Jean King and Ilana Kloss as minority owners in 2018, comprising the current group. As is well known, they have spent aggressively throughout their ownership, fueled in large part by an $8.3 billion, 25-year television rights deal with Time Warner.

After directing a run of success in Tampa Bay, Andrew Friedman joined the Dodgers as President of Baseball Operations on a lucrative five-year, $35 million deal after the 2014 season. Despite that massive contract, this is actually a time of some uncertainty with the front office. Friedman named Farhan Zaidi his general manager shortly after taking over in 2014, but Zaidi left to run the rival Giants earlier this month. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers have yet to guarantee an outside free agent even $50 million during Friedman’s tenure.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both.

As with the Phillies, we’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Dodgers, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership. With the Dodgers, this captures nearly the entirety of the McCourt years and all of Guggenheim’s free spending ways. Here is what the Dodgers have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

The Dodgers payroll story tracks the story of their ownership changes remarkably well. In the mid-2000s, McCourt increased spending to build a winner before corralling expenditures as his divorce from ex-wife Jamie and the effects of purchasing the team with so much debt caught up with him. Then the Guggenheim folks showed up and blew the top off of what most of us thought was the ceiling for spending outside of the Bronx. Importantly, the figures above do not include luxury tax payments, meaning that Dodgers spending was actually notably higher over that span thanks to the taxes that accompanied their lavish spending.

Unlike Philadelphia, the Dodgers were substantial players in the Latin American amateur market before Major League Baseball imposed significant spending restrictions, handing out substantial deals to the likes of Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Omar Estevez, and Erisbel Arruebarrena. In the end, as gaudy as the Major League spending figures were, amateur spending added a significant amount to overall expenditures reflected above, at least during the Guggenheim period of ownership.

Future Liabilities

For a team known for its massive spending habits, the Dodgers have surprisingly little in the way of long-term guarantees, especially when compared to other big spenders in major markets competing for the World Series each year.

Here is a look at their future guarantees with the powder blue highlight indicative of a player option — in the case of Kenley Jansen, this is an opt-out prior to the 2020 season.  As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

The Dodgers’ new deal with Clayton Kershaw gives them an ace on a reasonably short-term deal. While the annual financial commitment is high, the Dodgers must have been pleased to keep the term so modest.

Beyond Hill, their salary sheet is loaded with short-term commitments until we hit Maeda. Maeda’s contract is heavily incentive driven. Maeda receives $3 million annually, then receives the following incentives:

  1. $0.15 million for making Opening Day roster
  2. $1 million for each of 15 and 20 starts, then $1.5 million for each of 25, 30, and 32 starts
  3. $0.25 million for each of 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, and 190 innings pitched, then $0.75 million for 200 innings pitched

It is an extraordinarily team-friendly pact, one that has played out handsomely for Los Angeles. From a budgetary standpoint, however, it does present plenty of uncertainty.

At the bottom of the chart, we see two lines with hefty numbers but no tax component. First, we see the remaining half of the $48 million owed to Scott Kazmir from his three-year deal covering the 2016-18 seasons. Instead of receiving $16 million per year or something close to it, Kazmir received $8 million annually for six years. As such, he will receive his $8 million annual payouts in 2019-21, but those cash receipts won’t count against the Dodgers’ luxury tax figure. Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra obtained a substantial guarantee from the Dodgers, but he is yet to pass Double-A and didn’t record an inning in affiliated ball in 2018. Because L.A. removed him from their 40-man roster (under a rule that has now been amended), his significant cash guarantees do not count against the luxury tax figure for the Dodgers either.

Moving to arbitration, the Dodgers feature a pair of massive paydays for pending free agents in Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood. On the other hand, they appear to have “lucked” into artificially deflated arbitration pay rates for shortstop Corey Seager due to a poorly timed injury in his platform year. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

The Dodgers have a number of key contributions controlled via arbitration, but as is the case with most teams, there are some players here who stand a good chance of being non-tendered. From this viewpoint, it looks like Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup will likely get the boot. Regardless of what happens with that trio, only a couple of million dollars in savings are there to be found.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

This is where things get interesting. Really interesting. Last week, the Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times got hold of a document prepared by the Dodgers before the 2017 postseason for potential investors indicating that the club intended to stay below the luxury tax threshold each year from 2019-22. This would be a striking shift from the free-spending club. The document pegged future payrolls roughly $5 million south of the luxury tax threshold in each season once player benefits are factored in, as they are for luxury tax purposes, projecting payroll at $185 million in 2019 and 2020, $191 million in 2021, and $196 million in 2022.

Will such a spending restriction come to fruition? Your guess is as good as mine. It’s worth stressing that the document was prepared before the 2017 postseason and that Shaikin cited a team official as saying that he would be “shocked” if the payroll stayed below $200 million in 2019. The team’s plans might have changed in the last 13 months, especially after back-to-back World Series losses. But one significant data point out there regarding Dodgers spending in 2019 suggests that the 2018 payroll will be far more predictive of spending in 2019 and beyond than were the payrolls from 2013-17.

Are the Dodgers a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Simply put, this depends on how you feel about the two preceding paragraphs. If the Dodgers haven’t altered their plans since that document was prepared, it’s difficult to see them making a serious push for either player. If the Dodgers were merely posturing with the leaked document or setting forth an aspirational threshold that they don’t actually expect to hit, Harper or Machado is surely in play as the franchise continues to be flush with cash as they chase a World Series title that has proved elusive. (Those same leaked projections also predicted significant revenue increases.)

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

Whereas the Phillies will clearly spend and spend big, the Dodgers enter this offseason as a wild card. They have enough talent on the Major League roster and in the upper levels on the farm to expect another excellent season in 2019 without marquee additions this winter. They lack an obvious hole — provided, at least, that the Dodgers believe in Matt Kemp’s 2018 resurgence. Of course, even if they don’t buy into Kemp repeating his surprising success, Alex Verdugo is likely ready to jump to the big club to take his job.

If the Dodgers are serious about capping their spending south of the tax line, they won’t make a big move. Even removing Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup, the Dodgers are projected to spend $196.5 million including the hits for Kazmir, Sierra, and Toscano. Removing that trio, they are still at $184.3 million. There just isn’t enough payroll space to make a splash. If, on the other hand, the Dodgers get serious about Harper, they could create enough financial wiggle room to sign him by upping payroll by a few million dollars, shipping out Puig, and trading one of their lefty starters: Wood, Rich Hill, or Hyun-Jin Ryu. Friedman would likely be able to find a market for his moderate-sized contracts should he elect to go that route, though Ryu would have to approve any deal before June 15th of 2019 since he accepted a qualifying offer and is therefore treated like a signing free agent.

While it seems crazy to think that they’ll actually hold tight to their purse strings, the presence of impact talent on the farm and a strong Major League roster lends credence to the idea that L.A. could roll into 2019 with their core largely intact from 2018, allowing Machado to leave in free agency after a mercenary visit while passing on the chance to bring Harper back to the Southwest. Crazier things have happened.

We’ll find out if I’m a chump for believing this in the coming weeks.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $195 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: -$1.5 million

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