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The Opener: Non-Tender Deadline, Trade Market, Snell

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With a major offseason deadline now upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. The non-tender deadline is today:

The deadline for clubs to tender contracts to the players in their organization is 7pm CT this evening. The annual deadline never fails to spur activity with arbitration-level players, who typically are at the greatest risk of being non-tendered. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed the process and a wide-ranging list of possible non-tender candidates yesterday, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see a transaction regarding any player on that list at some point before this evening’s deadline. That transaction could be a non-tender, allowing the player to depart for free agency early rather retaining them at an arbitration-level price tag, but it could also come in the form of a trade to another club more willing to pay that arb price or even a pre-tender deal where the sides avoid arbitration at a lower price point to save the club some money and offer the player some certainty.

2. Could the trade market heat up this weekend?

Earlier this week, the Cubs swung a pair of trades on the same day. They acquired right-hander Eli Morgan, who is slated to be eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this winter, from the Guardians in exchange for outfield prospect Alfonsin Rosario. They also acquired recently DFA’d catcher Matt Thaiss in a cash deal with the Angels. It’s likely that we’ll see an uptick of trades similar to both of these deals over the coming days.

With the arrival of the non-tender deadline today, several arb-eligible players on the bubble of being non-tendered get moved today, either off teams looking to cut costs to teams with budget space available, or from a team that would otherwise non-tender a player to one interested in offering him an arb-level contract. Aside from that, we saw a slew of players DFA’d in advance of the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline earlier this week. Any number of them could be flipped to another club via trade or waivers. That could lead to a handful of minor trades similar to the Thaiss deal, where a club adds a player for a typically relatively minor return, and there will also surely be plenty of waiver activity (and subsequent DFAs) in the days ahead.

3. Who else will meet with Snell?

Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell reportedly met with both the Red Sox and Dodgers recently, giving a glimpse into the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested yesterday that both the Blue Jays and Orioles could soon set up meetings with Snell, adding that the left-hander is aiming for a shorter stay on the free agent market this time around after waiting until March 19 to sign last winter.

It seems fair to presume that the Yankees (who had interest last offseason) and Mets (who saw 60% of their rotation reach free agency) could also sit down with the lefty. Snell could potentially hold broader appeal than fellow free agent aces Corbin Burnes and Max Fried due both to his lack of a qualifying offer and the fact that his age could tamp down the length of his contract (at the likely trade-off of a premium annual value). Might that create a few surprise suitors who don’t typically shop in the deep end of the free-agent pool?

2024 Non-Tender Candidates

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The non-tender deadline is tomorrow evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Teams have already made a few cuts among that group — either at the beginning of the offseason when players returned from the injured list or prior to Tuesday’s deadline to keep prospects out of the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs, for instance, have already taken Adbert Alzolay and Patrick Wisdom off the 40-man roster and could officially non-tender them tomorrow.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (Scott Kingery and Seth Brown have already signed deals of that ilk.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.

As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.

At least a few of these players will likely be traded, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. MLBTR covered a few candidates for that kind of deal in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Have avoided arbitration since the list was published

Royals Have Shown Interest In Juan Soto

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The Royals have reached out to Juan Soto this offseason, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It doesn’t appear talks got far, as Heyman unsurprisingly adds that Soto’s asking price is out of Kansas City’s comfort zone.

At the start of the offseason, Heyman reported that a pair of small-market teams were among 11 clubs to reach out to Soto. The Rays were quickly reported as one of those suitors, and it seems the Royals were the other. In any case, there’s nothing to suggest either Tampa Bay or Kansas City has shown more than cursory interest. The teams known to have met with Soto — the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers — are all big-market franchises. The Phillies hadn’t scheduled a meeting with Soto as of Tuesday, though they’re also expected to sit down with the star outfielder and agent Scott Boras at some point.

The Royals were surprisingly active spenders last winter. Kansas City committed upwards of $110MM in free agency, headlined by deals for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Those contracts worked out incredibly well. Lugo finished second in AL Cy Young balloting. Wacha continued to post quality mid-rotation numbers. He opted out of the second season of his first K.C. contract before returning to the organization on a three-year, $51MM deal.

Kansas City’s biggest investment came on the eve of Spring Training, as they extended franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. on an 11-year deal that guaranteed him nearly $289MM. Witt turned in an MVP runner-up showing as Kansas City surprisingly snapped a nine-year playoff drought.

Witt’s contract is easily the biggest deal in franchise history. Soto’s asking price is surely more than double that. While they’re not going to get the market’s top free agent, the Royals could be involved on anyone else in the outfield class. Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill and Jurickson Profar are candidates for three- or four-year contracts. It’d be a surprise if anyone from that group reached nine figures, though Santander has an outside chance. K.C.’s corner outfield tandem of MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe is very weak for a contender, making that an obvious area for the front office to upgrade.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Mason Thompson

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The Nationals announced they’ve avoided arbitration with reliever Mason Thompson. The team did not reveal salary terms. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for an $800K salary that is marginally above the $760K league minimum.

Thomspon, who turns 27 in February, underwent Tommy John surgery early in Spring Training. He obviously missed the entire season but could return relatively early in 2025. A former Padres draftee, Thompson went to the Nats at the 2021 deadline in the trade that sent veteran reliever Daniel Hudson to San Diego. Thompson made 102 appearances for Washington between 2021-23. He posted a 4.57 earned run average with a middling 17.8% strikeout rate.

This was the first of the righty’s three seasons of arbitration eligibility. Washington had a nine-player arbitration class before waiving Ildemaro Vargas. Catcher Riley Adams and relievers Derek Law and Tanner Rainey are potential non-tender candidates before tomorrow evening’s deadline.

Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman

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The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.

Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.

That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.

This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.

Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.

The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.

The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.

Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.

Mets Agree To Minor League Deals With Joey Meneses, Hobie Harris

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The Mets are in agreement with first baseman Joey Meneses and reliever Hobie Harris on minor league deals. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported (X link) the Meneses deal, while MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported the Harris addition (on X). Meneses is a client of the MAS+ Agency; Harris is represented by Gaeta Sports Management.

Both players are former Nationals. The 32-year-old Meneses spent two and a half seasons in Washington. He had a monster showing in a limited sample as a rookie in 2022, hitting .324/.367/.563 in 56 games. The rebuilding Nats gave him two seasons to see if he could build off that surprising debut, but he hasn’t maintained anything near that form. Meneses was a roughly league average hitter in ’23, turning in a .275/.321/.401 slash with 13 homers over 154 contests. His numbers declined sharply again this year, as he finished with a .231/.291/.302 mark and a trio of home runs across 313 plate appearances.

The Nats waived Meneses at season’s end. He elected minor league free agency after going unclaimed. He’ll need to earn his way back to the big leagues. Meneses will battle for a job as a right-handed bench bat. Mark Vientos will lock down one corner infield spot. That could come at first base if the Mets allow Pete Alonso to walk. Vientos could move back to the hot corner if the Mets re-sign Alonso. Jesse Winker also hit free agency, so there could be a path to some at-bats at designated hitter depending on how the offseason plays out.

Harris, 31, has limited big league experience. He pitched in 16 games for the Nats in 2023, allowing 12 runs over 19 1/3 innings. Harris issued 13 walks and managed just nine strikeouts in that brief stint. The Pittsburgh product pitched in Triple-A with the Twins this past season. He allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine through 54 1/3 innings. Harris has struggled in the upper minors in consecutive years. He can run his fastball into the 94-95 MPH range and missed bats on an impressive 14.6% of his offerings this year, though. That was enough for the Mets to bring him aboard as minor league bullpen depth.

Shohei Ohtani Wins NL MVP

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Shohei Ohtani has his third MVP. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Ohtani won the National League MVP in his first season as a Dodger. Francisco Lindor landed in second place, while Ketel Marte rounds out the top three. Ohtani received all 30 first-place votes.

Ohtani becomes the first full-time designated hitter to win MVP, as he was unable to pitch for the entire season after undergoing elbow surgery late last year. He joins Frank Robinson as the only players to win an MVP in both leagues and he’s only the 12th player in big league history to win the award three times in his career. Barry Bonds is the only player with more than three MVPs — he won the award seven times — so Ohtani has a chance to move into second place on the leaderboard as he goes into his age-30 season.

While Ohtani’s first two MVPs reflected his two-way ability, this year’s honors are solely about his offensive dominance. He had arguably his best hitting season ever. Ohtani hit a career-high 54 homers and drove in 130 runs. He posted a .310/.390/.646 slash line, leading the National League in both on-base percentage and slugging. Ohtani also paced the Senior Circuit in homers and RBI while ranking second among qualified hitters in batting average. Luis Arraez hit .314 to narrowly prevent Ohtani from winning the Triple Crown.

Monstrous as his power numbers were, Ohtani was also perhaps the league’s best baserunner. He stole 59 bases, trailing only Elly De La Cruz in that category. While De La Cruz was caught stealing 16 times in addition to his 67 successful attempts, Ohtani was cut down on just four occasions. No player in history had ever posted a 50-homer, 50-steal season. Ohtani broke both marks easily, getting there with one of the best single-game performances in history. He went 6-6 with three homers, two steals and 10 RBI in a 20-4 drubbing of the Marlins to establish the 50-50 club.

Ohtani helped the Dodgers to yet another NL West title — their 11th division crown in 12 years. Los Angeles went 98-64 to secure the top seed in the National League. Playoff performance is irrelevant to awards voting, which occurs at the end of the regular season. Ohtani was relatively quiet in his first October action, hitting .230/.373/.393 in 16 games. That didn’t hold L.A. back from knocking out the Padres, Mets and Yankees en route to their second World Series in five years.

For a while, it seemed as if Lindor would pose a real threat to Ohtani winning the award. He hit 33 homers and stole 29 bases with a .273/.344/.500 showing over 689 trips to the plate. As a plus defensive shortstop, Lindor obviously provided significant defensive value. Ohtani’s historic offensive achievements proved decisive in the end, though this is Lindor’s first top three MVP finish. Marte raked at a .292/.372/.560 clip with 36 homers to earn the highest MVP placement of his career.

Lindor received 23 of 30 second-place votes. Marte finished second on five ballots. Braves DH Marcell Ozuna and Cy Young winner Chris Sale each got one second-place nod themselves. Ozuna and Milwaukee catcher William Contreras rounded out the top five in overall balloting. Giants third baseman Matt Chapman received one third place vote, though he placed 11th in balloting overall. Bryce Harper, De La Cruz, Jackson Merrill, Willy Adames, Zack Wheeler, Mookie Betts, Jurickson Profar, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Arraez, Paul Skenes, Teoscar Hernández, Ezequiel Tovar, Jackson Chourio and Dylan Cease all received votes.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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Aaron Judge is the MVP once again. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced this evening that the Yankee captain was the unanimous choice for the American League’s top player this year. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals was the unanimous runner-up, getting all of the second-place votes. Judge’s teammate Juan Soto finished third in the voting.

Judge was the AL MVP in 2022, his 62-homer campaign. While he came up just shy of that in 2024 with “only” 58 home runs, he roughly kept pace with himself in most categories. His 24.3% strikeout rate was actually a personal best, slightly ahead of the 25.1% clip from his previous MVP campaign. His 18.9% walk rate was a few ticks better than the 15.9% clip from two years ago. His 10 steals were a bit of a drop from his 16 from two years back, but his 144 runs batted in were a gain of 13.

Overall, his offensive contributions led to a ridiculous .322/.458/.701 slash line this year. That translated to a 218 wRC+, indicating he was 118% better than league average this year. That was an improvement over his 206 wRC+ in 2022.

On top of his work at the plate, he also contributed in the field. While he’s primarily been a right fielder in his career, he spent a career-high 903 innings in center in 2024. While he didn’t receive strong marks for his work there, simply being able to play up the middle was valuable to the Yanks, given the demands of the position. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 11.2 wins above replacement on the year, a slight increase over his 11.1 fWAR in 2022.

That all-time performance made it an easy choice for voters. That’s unfortunate for Witt, who played at a level that’d be enough to win MVP in a lot of years. The Royals’ star shortstop led the majors with a .332 average and 211 hits. He slashed .332/.389/.588 with 32 homers and 31 steals while playing excellent defense. FanGraphs credited Witt with more than 10 WAR in his own right. Since Witt finished in the top three in MVP voting within his first three MLB seasons, the Royals receive an extra pick after the first round in next year’s draft.

Soto had arguably the best full season of his career, hitting 41 homers with a .288/.419/.569 slash in what may be his only year as a Yankee. This is his third top five MVP finish. Soto received 21 third-place votes. Gunnar Henderson and José Ramírez, who finished fourth and fifth respectively, were the only others to land in third on some ballots. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tarik Skubal, Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Brent Rooker, Emmanuel Clase, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Anthony Santander, Jose Altuve, Seth Lugo, Corey Seager, Framber Valdez and Detroit reliever Tyler Holton also appeared on at least one ballot.

Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Guardians, Triston McKenzie Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians and right-hander Triston McKenzie have agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided on X. The Octagon client will make a salary of $1.95MM in 2025.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected McKenzie for a salary of $2.4MM next year, but he’ll actually come up shy of that number. That’s usually the case for deals agreed to at this part of the calendar.

Friday evening is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The two sides will still have plenty of time to negotiate the figures but clubs sometimes offer “take it or leave it” style deals ahead of the deadline for players that are borderline cases to be tendered in the first place. Such “pre-tender” deals often come in below projections, as the club is essentially telling the player to take a lower salary or else be non-tendered and sent into free agency.

It’s a remarkable position for McKenzie to be in, considering how things looked just two years ago. By the end of the 2022 season, he had thrown 344 2/3 innings with a 3.68 earned run average. He had struck out 27% of batters faced while giving out walks just 8.1% of the time. With the Guardians having a tremendous reputation for finding and developing starting pitching, it seemed as though they had found yet another rotation building block.

But McKenzie has had a rough time since then. He was injured for much of 2023, first due to a right teres major strain. He came off the IL and made a pair of starts but went right back on the shelf, that time due to a sprain in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow. He opted for non-surgical rehab and was able to come back for two more starts late in the year.

Any hopes for a bounceback in 2024 were quickly dashed. His velocity was down and he clearly wasn’t in a good space mentally. While he wasn’t in pain, he did say in mid-April that the possibility of re-injuring himself was weighing on his mind. He was optioned to the minors in June after having made 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate were both far worse than his previous work. He posted a 5.23 ERA at the Triple-A the rest of the way with roughly similar strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 13.9% respectively.

Despite the strong form he showed earlier in his career, the injury-wrecked season followed by a dismal performance in 2024 made McKenzie a non-tender candidate, but the two sides will instead reunite. It’s an understandable gambit for the Guards to take. Even for a lower-spending club like them, $1.95MM is almost nothing by MLB standards. If McKenzie can bounce back at all in 2025, he’d be well worth that price. They would also be able to retain him via arbitration again in 2026, so there could be a further payoff if McKenzie can put his recent rough stretch in the past.

McKenzie is now out of options, so the club won’t be able to easily send him to Triple-A again if that bounceback doesn’t come. But given their current roster, there could be a path for him to stick around. Their rotation is in rough shape, an unusual position for the club to be in. Apart from Tanner Bibee, there’s not much they can bank on. Ben Lively had a good year but is a journeyman who’s about to turn 33. Gavin Williams was hurt for much of 2024 and finished with a 4.86 ERA. Joey Cantillo has less than 40 innings in the majors and a track record of terrible control in the minors. Logan Allen had a 5.73 ERA for the year.

Offseason moves could reshape that rotation but McKenzie could earn a role in there if he looks good in the spring. Or perhaps a bullpen move would be an option, as McKenzie’s last three Triple-A appearances in 2024 were in relief. Either way, it’s a modest bet for the club to make with a decent chance at a nice payout. For McKenzie, he can put a bit more money in the bank while staying in familiar environs and not have to spend his winter sweating about finding a new job.

Rangers Sign Caleb Boushley To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-hander Caleb Boushley to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Round Rock for now but will presumably receive an invite to major league spring training.

Boushley, 31, has a small amount of major league experience. He made one appearance for the Brewers last year and two for the Twins this year. He has thrown 6 1/3 innings in the big leagues, allowing three earned runs.

He has naturally had a larger body of work in the minors. Over the past three years, he has made 80 Triple-A appearances, including 77 starts. In his 397 1/3 frames, he has a 4.55 earned run average, 18.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate.

He was outrighted off the Twins’ roster in September and was able to elect free agency at season’s end, which has led to this deal with Texas. The Rangers have plenty of rotation uncertainty, having recently lost Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Max Scherzer and José Ureña to free agency. They have interest in bringing back some guys from that group but they are reportedly planning to duck under the competitive balance tax next year, which could lead to some budgetary constraints this winter.

On paper, the current rotation includes Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter and others, though there are plenty of question marks in that group. deGrom and Mahle returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024 but each of them made just three major league starts this year. Gray and Bradford missed decent chunks of the 2024 season as well. Dunning has been deployed as more of a depth/swing guy and could be a non-tender candidate. Rocker and Leiter each have less than 40 innings of major league experience.

Boushley will give the club a bit of non-roster depth. Even if he doesn’t earn a job out of camp, the Rangers might need a spot start or long reliever as the season goes along. Should Boushley get on the 40-man roster at some point, he still has options and could be freely moved to Round Rock and back, though a player can only be optioned five times in one season.

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