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Yankees Notes: Gio, Florial, Hicks

By Connor Byrne | March 16, 2019 at 6:07pm CDT

The Yankees, first connected to free agent Gio Gonzalez earlier this month, have maintained interest in the left-hander, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. There is no indication the two sides are close to an agreement, however, Heyman adds. The Yankees initially showed interest in Gonzalez before ace Luis Severino went down with shoulder inflammation, and now the club knows the right-hander is likely to miss at least the first month of the season. Additionally, the Yankees will open the year without lefty C.C. Sabathia, who’s recovering from multiple offseason surgeries, though it seems he’ll make his 2019 debut before Severino.

Without Severino and Sabathia, the Yankees are set to open the season with Domingo German and Luis Cessa as their best starting options behind the Masahiro Tanaka–James Paxton–J.A. Happ trio. While the 33-year-old Gonzalez is far more proven than German and Cessa, the Yankees may not feel the need to add him or any other established hurler to their rotation if they expect Severino and Sabathia back in relatively short order. Should the Yankees spurn him, it would continue a disappointing trip to free agency for Gonzalez, who has encountered a tepid market after a strong 11-year run divided among Oakland, Washington and Milwaukee. Through 1,814 innings and 313 appearances (307 starts), Gonzalez owns a 3.69 ERA/3.63 FIP with 8.67 K/9, 3.77 BB/9 and a 47.2 percent groundball rate.

Angels Select Luke Bard

By Ty Bradley | March 16, 2019 at 4:15pm CDT

The Angels have selected the contract of right-hander Luke Bard to the 40-man roster, per a team release. In a corresponding move, the team’s placed righty Keynan Middleton on the 60-day injured list.

Los Angeles signed the 28-year-old Bard, a former Rule 5 selection of the team ahead of the 2018 campaign, to a minors deal in mid-February.

A Trackman dandy, Bard was coveted in the Rule-5 for his super-high spin rates – his 2770 average RPM on the four-seam ranked first among MLB hurlers with at least 100 fastballs thrown last season – and newfound ability to miss bats. In five minor league seasons before 2016, the Georgia Tech-product didn’t post a K-rate north of 8.08 per nine; since, he’s hovered around twelve, though the transition from heavy sink to top-of-the-zone heat has left him susceptible to the occasional gopher ball.

Bard still has minor league options left, so he’s no sure bet to crack the 25-man roster by March 28’s Opening Day. He’ll continue to jostle with a bevy of recycled and/or unproven arms for the last couple slots in the team’s pen, including Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles, Noe Ramirez, Jake Jewell, and Taylor Cole.

Middleton, 25, is still recovering from a May 2018 Tommy John surgery and remains on track to return sometime in the middle of the season. The hard-throwing righty opened eyes in his 2017 big-league debut, striking out nearly 10 men per nine with solid command in 58 1/3 IP. He was shaky in 17 innings before the surgery last season, with the balky elbow perhaps in large part to blame.

West Notes: Strickland, Hammel, Rodgers

By Ty Bradley | March 16, 2019 at 2:47pm CDT

Mariners reliever Hunter Strickland is “100% ready” for Wednesday’s Tokyo opener against the Athletics after being sidelined with back issues since March 3, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns. The high-strung Strickland, now 30, will apparently get first crack at the closer’s role for the new-look Mariners, who signed the righty to a one-year, $1.3MM deal after he was non-tendered by the Giants ahead of the November 30 deadline. After eight years in the minors, the then 25-year-old Strickland came out blowing smoke for the 2014 World Champion Giants, dominating early with a fastball that reached 100 mph on the regular. Multiple on-field dustups, including well-publicized boxing matches with both longtime nemesis Bryce Harper and a clubhouse wall, likely spelled the end for Strickland in San Francisco. After a 2015-17 stretch in which the 6’4 righty posted identical 0.8 fWAR totals with a K rate hovering around 8.5 per nine, Strickland endured his worst season in ’18, struggling to throw strikes, miss bats, and keep the ball in the park. His average fastball velocity, too, fell to a career-low 95.7 MPH, while heavier dependence on a changeup resulted only in withdrawal. Still, if the flamethrower can re-stoke his early-career heat, and direct much of it toward what seemed to be an ever-shriveling strike zone, the Mariners may yet have a massive bargain on their hands.

In other news from around the game’s Western divisions…

It’s MLB or bust for the 36-year-old Jason Hammel, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Hammel’s been excellent so far this spring, striking out over a batter per inning while allowing just a single run in 8 2/3 IP, but says he has no interest in playing for the team’s chief affiliate: “I certainly won’t go to Triple-A,” Hammel said. “This is a grind. If it requires me to go home, I know my family is waiting for me and has been for a while. I’m more than willing to go home and spend time with them.” Per Grant, it appears the 13-year MLB vet will consider other franchises if it doesn’t work out with Texas, though he doesn’t necessarily seem set on a starting gig. He’ll compete for a long-reliever role in the Ranger pen with righty Adrian Sampson, and despite a career-worst ’18 in nearly every category, looks to have the inside track.
The Rockies have predictably sent INF Brendan Rodgers back to minor league camp, tweets MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. A consensus top 30 prospect among all five major outlets (he checks in as high as #10 on MLB.com’s list), Rodgers had an outside shot to claim the team’s second base role in the upcoming season, but the team’ll look first to either Ryan McMahon or Garrett Hampson in the spot. The 22-year-old former third overall pick has impressed evaluators with his all-fields pop, though scouts seem less keen on his glovework at shortstop and discernment at the dish. In a late-season cameo with AAA-Albuquerque last season, Rodgers slashed just .232/.264/.290 with a 1.4% walk rate. Both ZiPS and Steamer, though, prefer him to any Rockie alternatives at the position, with the former projecting an impressive 98 wRC+/2.3 WAR line over a full season’s worth of plate appearances.

Injury Notes: Harper, Castellanos, Foltynewicz, Senzatela, Nix

By TC Zencka and Ty Bradley | March 16, 2019 at 1:27pm CDT

With each bump and bruise this time of year comes the potential for missed time during the regular season, perhaps especially so for those late signees getting delayed starts to their Spring Training. As Opening Day fast approaches, let’s get the lowdown on a few injury reports from camp…

Latest Updates

Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela has an infected blister on his right heel and will be out “a while,” per manager Bud Black (via the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders). Senzatela, 24, was competing for the final spot in Colorado’s rotation with Chad Bettis, who now appears to have the role on lock. The Venezuelan-born righty had made just eight starts above the high-A level before opening the 2017 season with the team, and again played a major role in the club’s wild card-run last season. His fastball-heavy repertoire is devoid, at this point, of a true swing-and-miss pitch, so perhaps the 6’1 righty could indeed use further minor league seasoning. Still, despite some sophomore regression, Senzatela’s been reasonably effective thus far in his young MLB career, and the Rockies are almost certain to require his services at some point this season.
Padres righty Jacob Nix has been shut down with right arm soreness, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Nix, 23, shares with Senzatela the same allergy to missing bats, but was a legitimate candidate for the fifth spot in a wide-open San Diego rotation. Once the victim of a too-clever Astros draft scheme, in which the team agreed to terms with the young righty but was forced to renege after a bonus-pool shortage resulting from the Brady Aiken fiasco, Nix has long flashed top-of-the-rotation tools but struggled with consistency. Last season’s debut was a disaster: the 6’5 righty was torched to the tune of a 7.02 ERA/5.83 FIP with 8 HRs allowed in just 42 1/3 IP. He, too, is due for a longer minors simmer, having made just one start above the AA level in his young career thus far.

Earlier Reports

Bryce Harper is day-to-day with ankle swelling, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Harper was hit by a pinch in yesterday’s Phillies game, though even by this morning the swelling had reduced. All tests came back negative, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter), while a number of reporters quote manager Gabe Kapler as projecting confidence in Bryce’s ability to be ready by Opening Day. All in all, this appears to be much ado about nothing, but as is the case with any injury, it’s worth tracking for aftereffect. Due to the late date of his signing, Harper has seen limited action in spring thus far, going 0-5 with three strikeouts, three walks, and a stolen base, though the focus here is obviously not yet on production. The Phillies season opens less than two weeks from today with their home opener against the Braves on Thursday, March 28th.
Tigers presumptive right fielder Nick Castellanos remains out of the lineup for the time being, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Castellanos is likely to return to Grapefruit League play within a couple of days. He was seen taking batting practice in the cage today and at least provided cursory affirmation that tests on his bruised left hand revealed no significant damage, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). Castellanos has been bandied about often here at MLBTR this winter as a trade candidate, which appears likely to continue as there have been no extension talks between the right-handed slugger and the club.
The Braves may be without their ace until “mid/late April,” per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Mike Foltynewicz has missed most of Spring Training with a sore elbow after a breakout season. Folty was stellar in 2018 as he went 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA (3.37 FIP) over 183 frames. There was much speculation about the Braves bolstering their rotation this winter, either via free agency or by bundling their prospects in a trade, but they mostly hung tight despite losing Anibal Sanchez – who enjoyed a different variety of 2018 breakout – to the rival Nationals. The Braves have plenty of depth to cover, but much of their standing pat must have been predicated on a healthy Folynewicz leading the charge again in 2019. Atlanta will lean on Julio Teheran, Kevin Gausman, and Sean Newcomb to hold down the fort until Folty’s return.

DMV Notes: Mejdal, O’s Rotation, Brocail, Difo

By TC Zencka | March 16, 2019 at 11:54am CDT

The Orioles offseason has consisted largely of the esoteric behind-the-scenes work being done by a newly-minted braintrust, offering the Baltimore fanbase little in terms of concrete evidence of a team on the rise. MLBTR readers rendered a decidedly nonplussed verdict of the O’s offseason by handing out a failing grade as the most common response in our Offseason In Review Series poll. Hope for an improved future for the AL’s foremost cellar dweller is dependent largely on conjecture tied to the resumes of the men brought in to run the organization, namely GM Mike Elias and field manager Brandon Hyde. The first significant evidence of Elias’ progress, however, is being seen all over spring camp, per MLB.com’s Joe Trezza. Spin axis seminars, high-speed Edgertronic cameras and “the long list of players championing the exposure to extra information they weren’t privy to before” are a few of the promising signs of growth coming out of O’s camp. Baltimore’s data infusion can be credited to new assistant general manger of analytics Sig Mejdal, a former NASA engineer and blackjack dealer whom Elias coaxed to Baltimore from their former employer in Houston. But that’s not all of the news coming from the D.C.-Maryland-Virginia corridor…

Hyde has already announced Alex Cobb as the Opening Day starter, but the only certainty beyond day one is the presence of Cobb, Andrew Cashner and Dylan Bundy in the rotation. In what order they’ll line up after Cobb, and who pitches in the fourth and fifth rotation spots is still very much up in the air, per the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli (via Twitter). Using an Opener at times is definitely on the table, as is tweaking the rotation depending on the matchup. More clarity could come soon to O’s camp, as another round of roster cuts is planned for tomorrow, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). Free agent signee Nate Karns certainly hopes to lay claim to one of those spots, but it’ll likely be a dynamic roster-crunching process in Baltimore right up until (and beyond, really) Opening Day.
The names that will populate Baltimore’s pitching staff remain unknown, but for commentary on those auditioning, the Athletic’s Dan Connolly turned to Doug Brocail, Baltimore’ forthright, 51-year-old pitching coach. The challenge facing Brocail is developing a shared language for his staff, while finding new ways to communicate on an individual level. For example, in giving instruction to righty Jimmy Yacabonis, Brocail’s message to “Hold your posture” wasn’t registering. Recognizing the need to break though this particular platitude, Brocail conveyed his point this way, “Right at hill strike, then let the rotation of the other half take over,” and the message sunk in. Give Connolly’s conversation with Brocail a full read for more insight into the mind of the Orioles’ pitching coach, including his thoughts on Cobb, Bundy and Cashner.
At the other end of the Baltimore-Washington Parkway, Nationals’ manager Dave Martinez is grooming Wilmer Difo for a super-utility role in 2019, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). This is not in response to the Michael A. Taylor injury, as there’s no plan at present to give Difo starts in center. Seeing some time in the outfield remains likely, as Difo boasts small-sample experience at all three outfield spots over the last two seasons. Difo will also likely serve as the team’s emergency catcher, a more pertinent responsibility on the Nats than most teams given Martinez’s stated desire to use the non-starter from the duo of Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki as a pinch-hitter. Were Martinez to stick Difo behind the dish at some point during the season, the move would at the very least be on brand for a disciple of the ever-tinkering Joe Maddon.

Twins Option Tyler Duffey, Reassign Chase De Jong

By TC Zencka | March 16, 2019 at 9:39am CDT

The Twins optioned reliever Tyler Duffey to Triple-A this morning, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News in Minneapolis (via Twitter). The Twins confirmed the move via a press release.

Chase De Jong is also on the move, as the 6’4″ righty has been reassigned to minor league camp. De Jong’s reassignment cuts the Twins’ number of pitchers in camp down to 21. They have 44 players remaining in camp overall, 13 of whom are of the non-roster invitee variety.

Duffey, 28, spent parts of the last four seasons with the big league club, most notably as a starter in 2016 when he took the hill 26 times for a 9-12 record and a 6.43 ERA (4.73 FIP) across 133 frames. A move to the bullpen in 2017 provided a boost to his K-rate as he logged 8.5 K/9 versus his 7.7 K/9 mark as a starter in 2016, but he wasn’t able to repeat those numbers in 2018. Duffey has little left to prove at Triple-A as he once again put together a strong year with the Rochester Red Wings, striking out 9.61 batters per nine while mostly working as a long man, logging 59 innings in only 31 appearances out of the pen. A 2.90 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.35 xFIP looks good – but those results did not translate to Target Field where he accumulated -0.2 WAR while marking a 7.20 ERA (5.36 FIP, 4.29 xFIP) in 25 innings. Though he’ll begin the season back at Rochester, there’s a decent chance Duffey returns at some point to the Twins bullpen in 2019.

De Jong, 25, made four starts in his first season with Minnesota last year, going 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA (4.92 FIP). The former 2nd round draft selection of the Blue Jays also saw time in the Dodgers and Mariners organizations before coming to Minnesota in the Zach Duke deal last July. He is likely ticketed to return to Triple-A to start the year after a rough spring in which he surrendered 12 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings of work. Both he and Duffey have one option year remaining, though De Jong faces a longer return road to the majors, as he is not currently on the Twins 40-man roster.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

By Jeff Todd | March 15, 2019 at 10:56pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Colorado ballclub only added a few pieces to its depth chart this winter, but that doesn’t mean the offseason lacked for consequential decisions.

Major League Signings

Daniel Murphy, 1B: two years, $24MM (includes mutual option)
Total spend: $24MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired RHP Jordan Foley from Yankees in exchange for RHP Jefry Valdez
Acquired C Chris Rabago from Royals in exchange for cash considerations (selected in Triple-A Rule 5 from Yankees)

Notable Minor League Signings

Alec Asher, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Brett Nicholas, Mark Reynolds, Michael Saunders

Extensions

Nolan Arenado, 3B: seven years, $234MM (had previously agreed to $26MM arbitration contract for 2019)

Notable Losses

Drew Butera, Carlos Gonzalez (still unsigned), Matt Holliday (still unsigned), DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, Gerardo Parra

[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Rockies are coming off of repeat postseason appearances for the first time in franchise history. While the club was bounced in the play-in game in 2017 and was swept in the NLDS last year by the Brewers, fans still savored the first full playoff series since 2009. If they’re to make it back into the tourney for a third-straight campaign, the Rockies will have to do so without a few key members of their recent squads — and without any major outside reinforcements.

This is an organization that has bet on its own players more than most in recent years. GM Jeff Bridich doesn’t swing many trades, preferring instead to hang onto and promote the club’s homegrown talent. His two biggest contracts have come via extensions, not free agent signings. Last year, it was outfielder Charlie Blackmon who secured a big payday to forego the chance to test the open market at the end of the season. This time around, the club took on the much more difficult task of working out a deal with franchise centerpiece Nolan Arenado.

Perhaps the game’s best third baseman, Arenado is a premium defender and excellent power hitter who is only entering his age-28 season. His new deal includes a hefty $33.4MM average annual salary for its newly guaranteed seasons, a record for a position player. And it provides him with full no-trade rights and an opt-out opportunity after the third year. The terms hardly represent a bargain for the Rox, who’ll bear the risk of injury or performance issues that arise during the season to come. But the team surely had legitimate concerns about what it would take to retain Arenado if he was allowed to test the open market.

The Rockies also reached another, less-consequential late-February extension by working out a new deal with manager Bud Black. He’s now under contract through 2022. Black, Bridich, and owner Dick Monfort have seemed to be on the same wavelength since the former took over for Walt Weiss before the 2017 season. It’s hard to argue with the results.

There’s a hypothetical world where second baseman DJ LeMahieu also ended up staying around. The club had interest, but it always seemed a bit lukewarm after a club-wide offseason letdown in 2018. LeMahieu ultimately signed with the Yankees for the same guarantee that the Rockies gave his replacement, Daniel Murphy.

Though he’s closing in on his 34th birthday and wasn’t fully himself last year after returning from knee surgery, Murphy looks to be a clear upgrade with the bat. He’s nowhere near LeMahieu’s class with the glove, but the Rockies won’t be asking him to line up at second base. Instead, the club will slot Murphy in at first while moving around some other pieces to fill in other areas. (More on that below.)

Otherwise, the Rockies’ only outside acquisitions rate mostly as depth. Mark Reynolds may crack the roster as a bench bat, while Alec Asher and Chi Chi Gonzalez boost the pitching ranks. In a manner of speaking, the team addressed one other need by bidding adieu to veterans Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra. That’s no slight to the players — both have certainly had their moments through the years and could still be useful contributors. But the organization probably ought to have exchanged pleasantries with Gonzalez for good last winter. Doing so now, while also letting Parra walk, cleared out a left-handed-hitting logjam in the outfield for some younger, cheaper, higher-upside players.

Questions Remaining

We just touched upon (but didn’t name) a few players whose changing status in the Colorado organization could make or break the coming season. Outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia now have an opening to seize major roles. The same holds true for second base/utility candidates Ryan McMahon and Garret Hampson. There’s a fair bit of ceiling for that foursome, though it’s still anyone’s guess which of them will turn out, and to what extent.

Putting real trust in these players carries obvious risk, though it also made good sense. It’s a deserving slate of players. And the Rockies were pressed for payroll space after making some fairly significant outlays on the open market in recent seasons. Mid-season trades can always be considered; it’s worth noting, too, that prized youngster Brendan Rodgers could force his way into the infield picture.

Dahl and Tapia are highly cost-efficient, interesting young players. But neither hits from the right side, meaning that the Rockies again have a skewed outfield mix. That was addressed in part by one other roster shift related to the Murphy-for-LeMahieu substitution. Ian Desmond will move off of first base and into center field, bumping Blackmon to a corner role. That’s a much more sensible alignment, though it remains to be seen how Desmond will handle the work up the middle now that he’s 33 years of age and is a few seasons removed from his previous (and only) season of work in center. Of greater consequence: can Desmond finally emerge from his doldrums at the plate and will Blackmon decline further from a productive-but-not-peak showing in 2018?

If there’s a glaring weakness on this roster, it’s behind the dish. Chris Iannetta is closing in on his 36th birthday and suffered through down season last year both with the bat and in the framing department. Tony Wolters is younger and scored well at earning strikes for his pitchers last year, but has been a dreadful hitter the past two seasons. While Tom Murphy remains an intriguing player given his offensive output in the minors, he’s a bit of a wild card. All things considered, it’s a bit surprising that the Rockies didn’t find a way to improve the catching situation this winter.

The bullpen is the other area of concern on paper. Adam Ottavino was the team’s best reliever last year, but he was never a realistic target in free agency. The club had little choice but to put its hope in a group of arms in which it is heavily invested. Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Mike Dunn are all earning big bucks; only Davis was a quality performer last year, and he wasn’t at this best. Seunghwan Oh succeeded after a mid-season trade; the team will cross its fingers that he and Scott Oberg can repeat their strong seasons and that Chris Rusin can rediscover his form. Otherwise, we’ll see some younger arms in action. Antonio Senzatela will be sidelined to open the season but could factor in again once he’s up to speed; Yency Almonte, DJ Johnson, Harrison Musgrave, Carlos Estevez, Rayan Gonzalez, and Jesus Tinoco are among the options on the 40-man.

So … we’ve made it this far in a Rockies discussion without talking about the rotation? That’s a good thing, as the unit didn’t need upgrading and looks rather interesting once again. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland will hope to repeat as a quality 1-2 punch, with the talented Jon Gray still a threat to overtake both. Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis seem like reasonable choices at the back of the staff. Perhaps Jeff Hoffman can still tap into some upside; Peter Lambert could make himself a factor. Otherwise, there’s some depth in some of the hurlers listed already above, along with Ryan Castellani and minor-league signees Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Alec Asher.

2019 Season Outlook

Overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West will be a very tough task, but the Rockies probably have the best shot to do so of the rest of the teams in the division. The Wild Card won’t be an easy back-up plan, either, as a densely packed National League figures to be full of competition. It’s clear that the Rockies believe their window is open, as it continues to set payroll records and is probably on track to do so again next year (when including reasonable guesses at arbitration salaries). That could set the stage for some interesting trade deadline decisions.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rockies' offseason?

C 38.72% (1,169 votes)

B 34.45% (1,040 votes)

D 13.55% (409 votes)

A 8.55% (258 votes)

F 4.74% (143 votes)

Total Votes: 3,019

2018-19 Offseason In Review Series

By Jeff Todd | March 15, 2019 at 8:42pm CDT

Here are the links to each team’s entry in the MLBTR 2018-19 Offseason In Review series. This post will be updated as more entries are published over the coming weeks.

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL East

AL Central

AL West

Billy Eppler On Angels’ Rotation

By Jeff Todd | March 15, 2019 at 8:02pm CDT

Angels GM Billy Eppler downplayed the possibility of a late-spring rotation addition, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group writes. It seems the organization is content with its existing options entering the season.

The indication for some time has been that the Halos have already pushed their payroll to the max this winter. Previously, the team inked Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill to short-term but reasonably expensive contracts.

New elbow woes for southpaw Andrew Heaney won’t change the team’s stance, despite the ongoing presence of Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez on the free-agent market. For one thing, Eppler says, doctors haven’t identified any structural concerns in or around Heaney’s elbow. For another, he adds, the club already has “starters we are comfortable with.”

That statement doesn’t close the door on a move, though it hardly suggests that the organization is suddenly free to spend more to bring in a pricey hurler. And it seems the Halos won’t be rushing to make a cheaper deal with one of the other free agent hurlers still waiting for a job, either.

So, should Eppler be comfortable with what’s on hand? Righty Nick Tropeano is nearing a resumption of mound work but won’t be ready for the start of the season, putting him in much the same situation as Heaney. That leaves Jaime Barria, Felix Pena, and Dillon Peters battling for two openings, Fletcher suggests. There’s an argument that all three could be at least passable back-of-the-rotation options, though the Halos may need more than that if they’re to keep pace with a loaded Astros team.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | March 15, 2019 at 6:38pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

It was a relatively quiet winter on the transaction front for the Astros, but an action-packed offseason wasn’t necessary for the back-to-back American League West champions. Although Houston has lost more notable players than it has gained in recent months, the team will nonetheless enter the 2019 season as the runaway favorite in its division and a legitimate World Series contender.

Major League Signings

Michael Brantley, OF: two years, $32MM
Robinson Chirinos, C: one year, $5.75MM
Wade Miley, LHP: one year, $4.5MM
Total spend: $42.25MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired IF Aledmys Diaz from the Blue Jays for RHP Trent Thornton
Acquired 2B Luis Santana, OF Ross Adolph and C Scott Manea from the Mets for IF/OF J.D. Davis and IF Cody Bohanek
Claimed C/OF Chris Herrmann from the Mariners, then non-tendered him

Notable Minor League Signings

None

Notable Losses

Dallas Keuchel (still unsigned), Charlie Morton, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis (still unsigned), Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado, Tony Sipp, Jandel Gustave

[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

A world-class rotation was a staple for the Astros during their two-year run of dominance from 2017-18, a span in which their starters ranked third in the majors in ERA (3.58) and second in fWAR (37.3). While right-handed aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have been at the helm of the group lately, they weren’t in the mix for the entire two-year period. Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. were around for the full run, but the Astros entered the offseason in danger of losing Keuchel and Morton to free agency. Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow & Co. knew the club would have to get through 2019 sans McCullers, who underwent Tommy John surgery in early November.

Given the uncertain statuses of Keuchel and Morton and the unavailability of McCullers, the Astros figured to be aggressive in addressing their rotation during the offseason. However, with Opening Day approaching, they haven’t made any headline-stealing additions to their starting five. That could change if the Astros re-sign Keuchel, who stunningly remains available and whom they have interest in bringing back, but it seems a reunion will only occur if the 2015 Cy Young winner accepts a short-term contract. Unlike Keuchel, Morton’s long gone, having taken a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays back in November. The 35-year-old’s exit from Houston ended a fruitful tenure which began when it signed him to what became a bargain deal (a two-year, $14MM guarantee) entering its World Series-winning 2017 campaign. Even though Morton blossomed in Houston after several mediocre and/or injury-filled seasons elsewhere, the Astros didn’t regard him as a must-keep piece, evidenced by their choice not to issue him a qualifying offer and their subsequent one-year contract proposal.

While Morton was unwilling to say yes to the Astros’ single-year offer, the same wasn’t true for left-hander Wade Miley, whom they reeled in for $4.5MM at the start of February. Now 32, Miley is only a year removed from having to settle for a minor league contract with the Brewers after two straight woeful seasons divided between Seattle and Baltimore. However, the longtime innings eater ultimately pitched his way back to relevance in Milwaukee, where he posted a terrific 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP over 16 starts and 80 2/3 frames. Now, thanks to his 2018 renaissance, Miley’s a lock for the Astros’ season-opening rotation.

It appears Miley and the Astros’ other hurlers will work primarily with Robinson Chirinos, whom they brought in on a low-risk pact after the in-state rival Rangers parted with him. Chirinos, 34, is stepping in for free-agent departures Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado – the latter of whom rejected the Astros’ two-year offer toward the beginning of the offseason. The Astros tried to pull in bigger fish at the position, though, as they showed interest in J.T. Realmuto before the Marlins traded him to the Phillies and pursued Yasmani Grandal prior to his one-year, $18.25MM commitment to Milwaukee. Either Realmuto or Grandal would have given the Astros a clear-cut No. 1 catcher, which they may not have at the moment. Chirinos has typically lived up to the role as an offensive player, to his credit, but he’s no world-beater behind the plate. Conversely, backup Max Stassi carries more questions as an offensive player than a defender. While Stassi was an elite defender in 2018 who also managed solid offensive numbers in the aggregate, his production with the bat careened off a cliff after a red-hot April/May. Nevertheless, having lost out on Realmuto and Grandal, the Astros are banking on the disparate skill sets of Chirinos and Stassi complementing one another in 2019.

Chirinos is one of two new regulars in Houston’s starting lineup, but the other – left fielder Michael Brantley – comes with much more fanfare. The Astros’ headlining offseason acquisition, Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM deal which fell short of contract predictions from both MLBTR and FanGraphs. The longtime Indian has generally performed like a big-money player since his breakout 2014 season, though he was seldom available from 2016-17, when shoulder and ankle injuries robbed him of all but 101 games and stunted his numbers.

Fortunately, Brantley bounced back during his platform season, appearing in 143 games and slashing .309/.364/.468 (124 wRC+) over 631 plate appearances. Along the way, he struck out a paltry 9.5 percent of the time – the second-best rate in the majors – thereby continuing a career-long trend. It’s worth noting the Astros’ lineup was a bear to strike out even before Brantley showed up, as their offense registered the majors’ second-lowest percentage (19.5) in 2018. Now, an attack which already boasted Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer should be all the more frightening with Brantley’s arrival. Plus, as a rare lefty in a righty-heavy lineup, the 31-year-old will give Houston a bit of variety at the plate.

The Astros had a need for Brantley thanks in part to the free-agent status of switch-hitting utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, whom they’ve since lost to the Twins on a two-year, $21MM accord. Gonzalez’s contract looks like a more-than-reasonable pact Houston easily could have afforded, and the team did show interest in re-signing him. But long before Gonzalez exited in February, the Astros found a contingency plan in Aledmys Diaz, a mid-November acquisition from the Blue Jays. The Astros are preparing Diaz for a super-utility role to help make up for Gonzalez’s loss, yet it may be a lot to ask of the 28-year-old. After all, Diaz has only seen extensive major league action at a pair of positions – shortstop and third base – and is just two seasons removed from a dreadful offensive showing. The good news is that the righty-swinging Diaz rebounded in 2018 to essentially match Gonzalez’s output at the plate (.263/.303/.453 in 452 PAs vs. .247/.324/.409 in 552 attempts). A repeat of that production would be welcome for the Astros, whom Luhnow noted could afford to trade young righty Trent Thornton for Diaz thanks to a backlog of “upper-level pitching.” So, even though it’s anyone’s guess what the Astros will get from Diaz, the trade seems like a worthwhile gamble on the team’s part – especially considering he’s controllable for four years.

Questions Remaining

The presences of Verlander and Cole surely give the Astros’ rotation a high floor, though it’s evident this is a riskier group than last season’s. Missing are Keuchel, Morton and McCullers, who spun a combined 572 innings of above-average pitching in 2018. No single member of that trio – let alone all three – will be easy to replace, though all-world prospect Forrest Whitley, 21, could be one of the rotation’s saviors sometime this season and there are multiple other intriguing young hurlers at or near MLB readiness. Regardless, it would be unwise to rule out further moves from Luhnow, who swung brilliant deals for Verlander and Cole in the recent past and who has at least tried to bring in another mid- to high-caliber arm since last season ended.

The Astros have been connected to Keuchel, James Paxton, Nathan Eovaldi, Robbie Ray, J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn at times dating back to November. The Diamondbacks’ Ray is the lone member of that group who hasn’t changed teams since then, and Houston could circle back to him (or look to another starter on the trade market) during the season if its rotation falls flat. As things stand, it appears the Astros will open the season with Miley, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock backing Verlander and Cole. Despite the stellar run prevention numbers he put up last season, it’s hard to trust Miley, whose strikeout and walk numbers underwhelmed (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and who benefited from an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball rate (5.2 percent, compared to 12.2 percent lifetime). He’s an obvious candidate for negative regression, even if he’s able to continue using his cutter to induce out-friendly contact. Less skepticism is deserved in regards to McHugh and Peacock, who have held their own as both starters and relievers in the majors.

On paper, the losses of McHugh and Peacock from the Astros’ bullpen will hurt the unit, but that’s not to say the club is set up poorly at the end of games. Quite the contrary, actually, as it’s due to receive full seasons from Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly – who joined the team in trades last summer – and continues to boast other healthy, established veterans in Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Chris Devenski. They could be joined by electrifying 26-year-old Josh James, who looked like a front-runner for a starting job before suffering a strained right quad in late February. James, like the rest of the aforementioned relievers, is a righty, and if there’s one quibble with the Astros’ bullpen, it’s the lack of a proven lefty. The team didn’t bring back Tony Sipp, who just signed for a relative pittance with the Nationals, even though he devastated both left- and right-handed hitters last season. The Sipp-less Astros will hope for breakouts from Cionel Perez and Reymin Guduan, a couple hard-throwing southpaws with minimal major league experience.

Meanwhile, with Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer and Brantley in the fold, the Astros will once again have a top-tier offense supporting their pitching staff. There are still some questions in their position player group, however, including: Will last year’s weak defensive showing carry over (Chirinos in, Maldonado out won’t help matters)? Will Diaz emerge as a reasonable facsimile of Gonzalez? Will well-compensated right fielder Josh Reddick rebound from a below-average 2018? How will designated hitter Tyler White follow up a 237-PA season in which he slashed an eyebrow-raising .276/.354/.533 (144 wRC+)?

White won’t have to approach last season’s numbers to properly replace ex-Astro and current free agent Evan Gattis, whose offensive production was pedestrian in 2018. Yuli Gurriel was similarly mediocre, though he remains the Astros’ preferred option at first base. Gurriel doesn’t seem to have a stranglehold on his position (and nor does White on his), however, considering the Astros reportedly pursued Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez and Jose Abreu over the winter. Luhnow has also demonstrated previous interest in Tigers slugger Nicholas Castellanos, who could again end up on the Astros’ radar in the coming months if they’re not content with their 1B/DH situation. Otherwise, should the Astros need an in-season offensive boost, perhaps they’ll shift Brantley to first/DH or relegate Reddick to the bench to make room for standout corner outfield prospect Kyle Tucker.

2019 Season Outlook

While there are clearly some legitimate concerns with elements of the Astros’ roster, and it’s arguable the team should have been more aggressive to improve it over the winter, the star-laden outfit still looks well-equipped to continue as a major league superpower and a division champion in 2019. Plus, with Whitley and Tucker among the talented youngsters in the fold as potential in-season reinforcements, Houston should only grow stronger as the year progresses, potentially setting it up for another title run.

How would you grade the Astros’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Astros' offseason?

C 41.54% (1,419 votes)

B 37.47% (1,280 votes)

D 11.15% (381 votes)

A 5.42% (185 votes)

F 4.42% (151 votes)

Total Votes: 3,416

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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