Rays Notes: N. Lowe, Kolarek, Diaz, Perez
The Tampa Bay Rays have optioned lefty Adam Kolarek to Triple-A, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (via Twitter). Kolarek has been largely effective in the Rays pen this season, but the demotion is less likely about performance as it is part of the workaday fluidity of Rays roster management. Kolarek heads to Durham as the current league leader in appearances with 29, though the 19 2/3 innings he has amassed speaks to his type of usage. After a couple of spotless stretches, Kolarek has been touched up for runs in four of his last seven appearances, though it’s notable that Kolarek faced less than five batters in each of his clean appearances, where he tends to falter when pushed beyond that mark. When facing five hitters or more this season – something he’s done nine times – Kolarek surrendered runs seven times, including seven consecutive dating back to mid-April. When Kolarek’s deployment is limited to less than five batters, he’s been tagged for an earned run only once in 20 outings this season.
- With the lefty headed to Durham, Nate Lowe will join the big league club for the second time this season. The team has made the moves official. Lowe’s first stint with the team led to four starts at first base and five as designated hitter in early May. In that short sample stint, he hit .257/.289/.314 without a long ball. With Triple-A Durham he’s put up numbers more commensurate with expectations – .257/.390/.424 – though he has yet to tap into home run power at either level after blasting 27 bombs across three levels last season. Ji-Man Choi has been just okay at first for the Rays so far, so there may be room for Lowe to make his mark if can arrive hot to St. Petersburg. Still, the Rays value their flexibility, and Lowe profiles similarly to Choi at first/DH. Lowe is in the lineup today, set to bat fifth and play first while Choi DH’s and hits cleanup.
- Lowe’s presence is largely to make up for the injured Yandy Diaz, who has been a big part of the Tampa offense since being acquired from Cleveland this winter. Diaz has been out since May 20th with a left hand contusion. His comeback trail begins today, however, as he heads to Port Charlotte for extended Spring Training, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Cuban-born Diaz produced more pop than projected for a groundball hitter through the seasons’s first two months. Nine home runs is the cover story, but his underlying power numbers are equally impressive (.500 SLG, .244 ISO). While such a prodigious power jump seems likely to regress to the mean at least somewhat, Diaz’s power surge has nonetheless preserved the approach the made him attractive to the Rays in the first place: above-average hard hit rate (44.1%), low strikeout rate (18 K%), and lots of walks (11.1 BB%). It bodes well that these numbers have held the line despite Diaz already eclipsing a new career high in plate appearances (180) while seeing a significant drop in BABIP (from .371 in 2018 to .263 in 2019). Every game matters for the Rays, who have been without impact at-bats with Daniel Robertson manning the hot corner in Diaz’s stead. Robertson, 25, owns an insufficient .207/.316/.293 slash line through 150 at-bats in 2019.
- In other recovery news, Michael Perez could begin a rehab assignment by early next week, per Topkin (via Twitter). An oblique injury has limited the Rays backup catcher to only 15 games this season. Starter Mike Zunino is now back, but stand-ins Erik Kratz and Travis d’Arnaud have both struggled to put together productive at-bats. Through 39 career games at the big league level this year and last, Perez owns a .274/.328/.385 line with one career home run. That might not light your world on fire, but it would still represent a pretty sizeable upgrade over the production the Rays have received from their catchers of late.
An Early Look At Nationals’ Deadline Options
The Nationals are 24-33, 9 1/2 games back of the NL East lead and six out of wild-card position. If that keeps up, they seem likely to sell leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. For now, though, that isn’t the Nationals’ intention. An American League executive told Jayson Stark of The Athletic that Washington’s “still talking about adding. They’ve been calling around, looking for upgrades in the bullpen. And teams with that attitude have a hard time flipping and saying it’s time to re-trench for next year.”
If the Nationals aren’t going to wave the white flag, the bullpen’s a logical place to seek upgrades. Their relief corps has been a horror show all season, ranking last in the majors in ERA (7.23), 29th in blown saves (11), 28th in FIP (5.26) and 26th in walks per nine innings (4.38). As you’d expect from those statistics, bright spots have been difficult to find in the group.
Of the seven Nationals who have logged double-digit relief appearances this season, only closer Sean Doolittle has put up respectable numbers, but even the oft-dominant left-hander had a couple blowups in the second half of May. Meanwhile, blowups have been all too common throughout the season for southpaw Matt Grace and hard-throwing righty Kyle Barraclough – one of the Nationals’ key offseason acquisitions. Fellow offseason pickup Trevor Rosenthal could scarcely record an out before the club banished him to the injured list April 26 because of a viral infection. Wander Suero, Tony Sipp and the injured Justin Miller have mostly been ineffective, while it’s too soon to pass judgment on a Tanner Rainey–Javy Guerra–Kyle McGowin trio that has thrown a combined 13 1/3 innings.
Unfortunately for the Nationals, with the deadline still two full months away, teams with valuable relief trade chips may want to keep them in hopes of sparking a late-July bidding war. Although, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo was able to pry reliever Kelvin Herrera out of Kansas City almost a month and a half before last year’s deadline. The Herrera acquisition didn’t work out, though, continuing Rizzo’s spotty track record of bullpen trades. Even getting Doolittle and Ryan Madson from the Athletics in 2017 cost the Nats Blake Treinen and Jesus Luzardo, the former perhaps baseball’s best closer in 2018 and the latter now an elite pitching prospect, as well as a good third base prospect in Sheldon Neuse. The summer before that, reeling in Mark Melancon from the Pirates forced the Nationals to give up now-excellent Pittsburgh closer Felipe Vazquez.
Though the Nationals want to make yet another in-season trade(s) to repair their wonky bullpen, the luxury tax line is worth keeping in mind in their case. Ownership reportedly doesn’t want to exceed the $206MM threshold, which helps explain why Washington hasn’t just signed free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel to better its late-game situation. The team’s a bit under $203MM in luxury tax payroll, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and would have to shell out a 50 percent surtax for every dollar spent over the line.
The tax is likely weighing on the Nationals’ minds as they consider buying. However, there’s plenty of time for the club to change course and pivot toward selling if the on-field product doesn’t improve. Should Washington take that route, it could consider moving the premier impending free agent in the game (at least among position players), third baseman Anthony Rendon. Rizzo was in a similar position last year with Bryce Harper, but given that the Nationals were hovering around the .500 mark, he decided to retain the outfielder. The Nationals then missed the playoffs and failed to re-sign Harper, leading him to bolt for the division-rival Phillies in free agency after rejecting a qualifying offer. All the Nats got for his exit was a fourth-round pick. The departure of a qualified Rendon would return something better – a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B – but only if they stay below the tax line.
Beyond Rendon, Stark points to Doolittle and right-handed ace Max Scherzer as potential trade chips. Stark hears from multiple executives that the Nationals are not interested in moving Scherzer, though. The 34-year-old Scherzer’s contract still has more than $100MM on it – including in deferrals – but he remains a dominant force who’d draw plenty of interest. Doolittle has just another year of control left (a $6.5MM club option), though trading him would likely damage the bullpen-needy Nationals’ chances of competing in 2020. More realistically, a Nats sale could revolve around Rendon with Michael A. Taylor, who’s under control for one more year, and potential free agents Matt Adams, Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier and Gerardo Parra also looking like trade candidates.
Mariners Sign Kelby Tomlinson, Jaycob Brugman
The Mariners have signed infielder Kelby Tomlinson and outfielder Jaycob Brugman to minor league contracts, per Roster Roundup.
The 28-year-old Tomlinson is best known for a long run with San Francisco, which selected him in the 12th round of the 2011 draft. Tomlinson stayed with the organization through last season, the fourth straight year in which he logged major league action. The righty-hitting Tomlinson was an offensive bright spot as a part-time player with the Giants from 2015-16, but his numbers cratered thereafter. Tomlinson ended his Giants tenure with a .265/.331/.332 line (84 wRC+), three home runs and 19 steals over 687 plate appearances.
San Francisco outrighted Tomlinson after last season, leading to a minor league opportunity with the division-rival Diamondbacks. However, Tomlinson opened 2019 by hitting an unappealing .218/.320/.276 with no HRs across 100 PA with Arizona’s Triple-A club. As a result, the D-backs released him May 12.
Brugman, 27, has spent most of the season on the minor league injured list with the Orioles, who released him last week after he came off the IL. He had been with the O’s since they acquired him from the Athletics for right-hander Jake Bray in November 2017 . Brugman’s only major league experience came in ’17 as a member of the A’s, with whom the left-hander hit a respectable .266/.346/.343 (90 wRC+) and totaled three home runs in 162 attempts. Otherwise, Brugman has mostly played at Triple-A over the past few seasons. He carries a .276/.342/.403 slash with 14 homers in 856 PA at the minors’ top level.
Diamondbacks Release Marc Rzepczynski
The Diamondbacks have released left-handed reliever Marc Rzepczynski, according to Roster Roundup. He had been with the organization since signing a minor league deal in February.
The journeyman Rzepczynski has been an effective reliever for most of his career, which began with the Blue Jays in 2009, but hasn’t seen much action at the game’s highest level of late. After a 31 1/3-inning season with the Mariners in 2017, “Scrabble” threw just 10 1/3 frames between the M’s and Indians last year. Opposing offenses battered Rzepczynski during that small sample, collecting eight earned runs on 16 hits and 10 walks.
Prior to his release, Rzepczynski recorded mediocre numbers across 25 2/3 innings with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate in Reno. The 33-year-old pitched to a 3.86 ERA/4.74 FIP with 6.31 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9, though he did log a superb 60.5 percent groundball rate. Rzepczynski has also induced grounders at a high clip in the majors (59.7 percent), where he has posted a 3.89 ERA/3.88 FIP and 8.47 K/9 against 4.24 BB/9 in 434 2/3 innings. Most of his success has come at the expense of same-handed hitters, whom he has held to a .227/.296/.305 line.
Panda For Sale Or Rent
The Giants have some obviously appealing trade candidates. They also have some undesirable contracts. And then there’s the Kung Fu Panda … one of the most unique players in recent memory. He has had some low lows on the ballfield, but he did not start out as some woeful novelty. And he isn’t one now.
We’ve already seen the suggestion floated by some Giants reporters, so … can I interest you in a gently used Pablo Sandoval?
Let’s start on the contract side. Sandoval is way too expensive. But he’s also dirt cheap! He’s earning a cool $19MM this year. The Red Sox are paying all but $545K of it. They’re also on the hook for a $5MM buyout next year, at which time Sandoval will be back on the open market and searching for a much more modest contract than the $95MM deal he inked in November of 2014. It doesn’t get any cheaper than this, folks. You’re paying at least that much to fill the roster spot regardless, so this rental player comes with an effective cash cost of absolutely nothing.
The question remains … do you really want a rental Panda? If so, how much value should you really give to make this happen?
If you’ve followed the Giants from afar, you might assume that Sandoval has slumped with most of the rest of the roster. In fact, he’s leading the team in wRC+ (minimum 10 plate appearances) and fWAR (he’s tied with Buster Posey at 1.0 apiece, but Sandoval has done it in just over two-thirds the plate appearances).
Yep, it has been a vintage performance thus far — a deep cut, in fact. Sandoval hasn’t produced at these kinds of levels since way back in 2011, before he settled in as a solidly above-average but comfortably sub-elite hitter and then ultimately collapsed in Boston. Through 109 plate appearances, the switch-hitting Sandoval carries a .288/.321/.596 slash with seven home runs. He’s delivering well-graded glovework at the hot corner. Oh, and he has not only filled in at first and second in recent years, but he’s even making occasional scoreless appearances on the mound just for kicks.
No money down. Zero maintenance. Versatile. Stout. Below Kelley Blue Book?!
That’s the dealer’s pitch, anyway. Almost sounds too good to be true. Just to be safe, let’s check the Carfax and have a gander underneath the hood …
Hmm well there is one catch you ought to be aware of right off the bat. Sandoval is a switch-hitter, true, but he has been absolutely dreadful against left-handed pitching. And that’s really not a new thing, if we’re being honest. But hey … at least he’s good on the heavy side of the platoon!
Yeah, okay, you’re a little worried about the sample size? If we’re focusing on what he has done against righties … yeah, it’s eighty plate appearances of a thousand-plus OPS hitting. But yikes … a 4.8% walk rate to go with a 27.4% strikeout rate? A .360 BABIP is the only thing supporting his .345 OBP. And that 31.8% HR/FB rate … not gonna last. He’s feasting on some pitchers that aren’t all at the tops of their games. Hard to put too much stock in this kind of showing from a part-time player.
To be fair, Sandoval is legitimately ripping the baseball right now, at least when it is being thrown at him from someone’s right arm. Statcast it. 14.9% barrel rate … about triple what he was averaging during the Statcast Era. 45.2% hard-contact rate. The results are outstripping even that impressive contact (.385 wOBA vs. .362 wOBA), but not by a ridiculous margin. He’s hitting the ball to the opposite field more than ever, which perhaps hints at a change in approach that is helping to produce these results.
That’s all well and good, but the bottom line is that it’s just not a terribly sustainable formula. At his best, in his first stint with the Giants, Sandoval was a model of K/BB consistency, with solid walk rates (average for that era; around 8%) and low strikeout rates (between 13.1% and 13.5% in every season from 2009 and 2014). Now he’s at half that walk rate and twice that strikeout rate — well on the wrong side of current league average in both respects. Sandoval’s 15.9% swinging-strike rate is by far the highest of his career. The newly aggressive approach is working for now, but it doesn’t feel like it’ll last.
It’s not hard to imagine the Panda changing hands this summer. He could be a functional piece for the right team. But my expectation is that it’ll be for a rather minimal trade return, even though an acquiring team won’t have to come out of pocket for his services. You may be a buyer, but I’m walking away.
Miguel Cabrera To Undergo MRI On Knee
Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera left the team’s game against the Braves on Friday with right knee soreness, manager Ron Gardenhire told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News and other reporters. Cabrera will undergo an MRI.
“I felt it at the plate the last three games — I didn’t use my legs too much,” Cabrera said (via McCosky).
Thanks in part to his knee pain, Cabrera failed to reach base in any of his three plate appearances Friday. The future Hall of Famer, 36, has trudged through an uncharacteristically difficult season to this point. Cabrera owns a .284/.356/.356 line, good for a 93 wRC+, through 219 trips to the plate. The longtime 30-home run threat has shown almost no power along the way, with two HRs and the majors’ third-worst ISO (.072).
While Cabrera’s performance has been a letdown, the durability he has shown thus far has been encouraging. After missing all but 38 games a year ago because of a ruptured left biceps tendon, he has come back to appear in each of Detroit’s 54 contests this season. This injury could snap that streak, though, and would leave the Tigers to choose among Brandon Dixon, Niko Goodrum and John Hicks to handle first.
Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract
Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu could have shopped his services to all 30 major league teams last offseason, but the career-long Dodger opted against going to the open market. Instead, Ryu accepted a $17.9MM qualifying offer to stay in Los Angeles, in part because of a long list of injury troubles that could have hampered his earning power. Dating back to 2013, the Korean-born Ryu’s first season in the majors, he has missed significant time because of arm problems (including shoulder and elbow surgeries) as well as foot and groin issues. The latter forced Ryu to the 10-day IL earlier this season, but he got off to a strong start before then and has come back far better since returning April 20.
After throwing just 82 1/3 innings last season, Ryu has already amassed 73 frames through the first two months of 2019. Ryu shut out the Mets over 7 2/3 innings on Thursday to finish May with an incredible four scoreless starts in six tries. Across 45 2/3 innings this month, Ryu pitched to a near-spotless 0.59 ERA with 36 strikeouts against a meager three walks. He now owns easily the majors’ leading ERA (1.48) and walk rate (0.62 per nine, with 8.51 K/9). His success in the run prevention and walk categories doesn’t look like a fluke either. Ryu, after all, put up a 1.97 ERA with 1.64 BB/9 (against 9.73 K/9) during his injury-shortened 2018.
Even if Ryu isn’t quite as great as his ERA indicates, his 2.78 FIP over the past season-plus is befitting of a front-line starter and ranks sixth among all pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings since 2018. He’s behind a pretty good quintet of Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Gerrit Cole in that regard. DeGrom, Sale and Corbin have each scored nine-figure contracts going back to the offseason, while Cole figures to join them when he reaches free agency during the upcoming winter.
Ryu’s also on schedule to reach the open market, though he’s not going to cash in to the same extent as Cole. Concerns over Ryu’s durability figure to combine with the soon-to-be 33-year-old’s age and 2013-17 performance (when he was good but not great) to cap his earning power. However, he can look in his own locker room to find a lefty who overcame injury questions, advanced age and a far shorter track record than Ryu’s to recently score a large payday in free agency. That’s Rich Hill, whom the Dodgers re-signed to a three-year, $48MM guarantee heading into 2017 – his age-37 season.
Free agency worked out for Hill, but one would be remiss to ignore the fact that the process has taken an unfriendly turn for certain hurlers since he landed his payday. Jake Arrieta received less guaranteed cash than expected in 2018, while Gio Gonzalez settled for a minor league deal entering this season and Dallas Keuchel remains unsigned. At the same time, however, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn did surmount obstacles of their own en route to $30MM-plus guarantees in the previous two offseasons.
We’ll use the $30MM number as a jumping-off point for this poll, but if Ryu continues to perform like a front-line option and stay reasonably healthy, he could blow past it.
(Poll link for app users)
How much do you expect Ryu to earn on his next contract?
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$60MM or more 30% (1,622)
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$40MM-$49MM 27% (1,476)
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$50MM-$59MM 23% (1,256)
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$30MM-$39MM 19% (1,026)
Total votes: 5,380
Progress Report: Pittsburgh’s Return For Gerrit Cole
In one of the most significant trades of the 2017-18 offseason, the Pirates sent right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Astros for a four-player package. The move put an end to nonstop trade rumors centering on Cole, who had been a Pirate since they selected him first overall in the 2011 draft. Cole largely lived up to the billing in Pittsburgh, but with the Pirates being a low-budget team and Scott Boras functioning as the hurler’s agent, the club had little choice but to deal him. Cole was down to his penultimate year of control, and the Pirates knew they weren’t going to be able to prevent him from reaching free agency after 2019.
Cole has excelled with the Astros since the deal went down, though even they haven’t locked him up to an extension. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is likely to reach the open market after the season, when he could be the top player available. In the meantime, Cole could help guide an elite Houston team to a World Series championship. On the other hand, the Pirates haven’t contended since they traded Cole (in fairness, nor did they in his final two seasons in the Steel City). At 27-28, it appears the Buccos are on their way to a fourth consecutive year without a playoff berth. The package they got for Cole hasn’t really helped matters.
Righty Joe Musgrove, arguably the headliner from Pittsburgh’s point of view, came over after a year in which he moved to the Astros’ bullpen and stood out. But the Pirates shifted Musgrove back to the rotation, and aside from a horrendous showing in May, he has resembled a decent big league starter. While Musgrove has given up 27 earned runs on 38 hits in 30 innings this month, his overall numbers as a Pirate are fine. The 26-year-old has given Pittsburgh 30 starts and 178 1/3 frames of 4.29 ERA/3.60 FIP ball with 7.57 K/9, 2.12 BB/9 and a 44.8 percent groundball rate dating back to his arrival.
In the aggregate, Musgrove has been more the solution than the problem for the Pirates. He’s also on a pre-arbitration salary this season and still has three years of arb control thereafter. Realistically, there’s not a lot to complain about with Musgrove, though the same hasn’t been true of the other three players the Pirates got back.
The hope was that big, hard-throwing righty Michael Feliz would emerge as a lights-out member of the Pirates’ bullpen right away. They’re still waiting. Feliz managed a 4.13 FIP and 10.38 K/9 in 47 2/3 innings last season, but he walked more than four batters per nine and limped to a 5.66 ERA. To make matters worse, the 25-year-old has spent most of this season in Triple-A. Across the 12 innings Feliz has logged in the majors in 2019, he has surrendered 11 earned runs on 12 hits and nine walks (with an impressive 16 strikeouts, it should be noted).
Outfielder Jason Martin, who was the Astros’ 15th-ranked prospect at the time of the trade, totaled the first 38 plate appearances of his major league career earlier this season. He didn’t produce much, though, nor has the 23-year-old acquitted himself all that well at the minors’ highest level thus far. Martin got a promotion after crushing Double-A pitching last season, but he’s the owner of a meager .225/.284/.371 line in 338 Triple-A attempts.
That leaves 26-year-old third baseman Colin Moran, who has garnered the most playing time of anyone Pittsburgh got back for Cole. The former top 100 prospect has been just a guy with the Pirates – a league-average hitter whose WAR suggests he’s something between an average player and a replacement-level performer. Over 618 trips to the plate as a Pirate, Moran has hit a respectable but unexciting .274/.335/.414 (102 wRC+) with 17 home runs and 1.1 fWAR.
Including Moran’s contributions, the Pirates have gotten 4.7 fWAR out of the Cole trade so far. Last July, seven months after that deal, the Pirates traded two hyped young players (righty Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows) to Tampa Bay for a potential Cole replacement righty Chris Archer. That transaction has worked out far worse for the Pirates to this point, as Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs recently explained.
The Cole and Archer moves have left the Pirates with a bunch of controllable parts, but nobody from the group looks like much to write home about so far. At the same time, the swaps stripped the organization of a trio of players who have been high-end contributors elsewhere. Two of them, Glasnow and Meadows, are under control for the foreseeable future. These are mistakes a small-budget team can ill afford to make, and they help explain why the Pirates are stuck in neutral.
Pirates Halt Rehab Assignment Of Keone Kela
The Pirates have halted the rehab assignment of righty Keone Kela, the club informed reporters including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (Twitter link). He has been sidelined since early May with a shoulder issue that hasn’t yet fully dissipated.
Kela made one appearance at Triple-A on May 25th, at which time it seemed he was not far from a return to the majors. But he obviously did not bounce back and progress as hoped. There’s still no reason to believe that Kela is dealing with a major injury. His handling to this point suggests that’s not really a concern.
The team says recurrent discomfort has led to the decision to pull Kela from the assignment. He’ll be shut down for about ten days before any further steps are decided upon. What will happen at that point — reexamination, resumption of throwing, etc. — isn’t really clear.
It seems safe to presume that the Bucs will go without Kela for a decent while longer, even if he does show fairly quick improvement and is ready to begin ramping back up after ten days. He’s a reliever, which limits the need to build up innings, but the club will want to avoid any further setbacks by moving too rapidly. Once he does resume his rehab assignment, Kela will have thirty days to complete it.
Kela’s absence stings with the Pirates trying to weather a rough stretch for the rotation. The 26-year-old was not off to the best start to the present season, with a 4.63 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. His swinging-strike rate is down quite a bit and he had already allowed three long balls. Still, that’s a short sample and Kela is coming off of a very strong 2018 campaign.
Carlos Carrasco Has Gone Backward
Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most dominant starters from 2014-18. During that 807 2/3-inning, 131-start span, Carrasco recorded a 3.31 ERA/3.03 FIP with 10.18 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, a 48.0 percent groundball rate and upward of 20 wins above replacement. That five-year stretch convinced the Indians to keep and extend Carrasco in the offseason, when there were rumblings they could offload starters, signing him to a team-friendly contract. Two months into the season, though, the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions haven’t resembled their previous selves, in part because Carrasco hasn’t managed the same results as he did in prior years.
The 32-year-old Carrasco has pitched to a 4.98 ERA through 65 innings, averaging just over five frames per start after logging better than six an outing during the previous half-decade. Carrasco’s 4.07 FIP is nowhere near as underwhelming as his ERA, but it’s still a run higher than he and the Indians are accustomed to. His strikeout and walk rates are phenomenal (10.94 K/9, 1.52 BB/9), and his .353 batting average on balls in play further suggests positive regression in the run prevention department. Aside from those figures, though, there are legit reasons for concern regarding Carrasco.
It begins with a newfound difficulty keeping the ball out of the air. Carrasco’s groundball percentage has nosedived to a career-worst 39.2, leading to personal worsts in fly ball rate (38.7) and launch angle against (14.2). Surprise, surprise: Home run troubles have come with those changes. Carrasco’s yielding gopher balls on 20 percent of flies, up from 12.7 during his aforementioned five-year stretch of excellence. It’s not just HRs, though – Carrasco’s surrendering more damaging contact in general. He ranks in the bottom 8 percent of the league or worse in exit velocity against (90.9), barrel percentage against (14.1) and hard-hit rate (47.3 percent), according to Statcast, which also assigns Carrasco a below-average expected weighted on-base average against (.329, compared to .280 in 2018).
So what’s causing Carrasco to falter? His biggest problem seems to be his changeup, a pitch he has relied on between 16 and 18 percent of the time dating back to last season. Batters have posted a .432/.377 xwOBA versus the offering this season after mustering a matching (and weak) .224/.224 against it a year ago. As is typically the case with changeups, Carrasco has primarily used it in an effort to quell opposite-handed hitters. They’ve caused the most damage against Carrasco, though, having slashed .287/.331/.574 for a .371 wOBA.
In essence, the average lefty swinger who has faced Carrasco in 2019 has hit like Trevor Story or Matt Chapman. That wasn’t the case last year, when lefties managed a Joe Panik-esque .302 wOBA off Carrasco. It’s happening in part because Carrasco isn’t locating his change as precisely as he did in 2018, keeping it too close to the middle of the plate (and inside versus lefties). That wasn’t true last season. Carrasco has had a similar problem with his curveball, having allowed a ludicrous .908/.719 wOBA/xwOBA when throwing it, though he has only turned to the pitch 2.3 percent of the time (down 5 percent from last year, when it was much more effective).
Cleveland’s a 28-28 team with a minus-12 run differential, already facing a 9 1/2-game deficit in the division it has owned in recent seasons. Considering the myriad issues the Indians are facing – including the weeks-long absences of injured righties Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, not to mention fellow RHP Trevor Bauer‘s own decline – a middling version of Carrasco is one of the last things they needed. That’s what the Indians have gotten, though, and unless Carrasco returns to form, catching the first-place Twins is going to be an even tougher task.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.