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Market Notes: Machado, White Sox, Mystery Team, Kipnis, Marwin

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Despite recent reports that the White Sox have made an eight-year offer to Manny Machado, a parade of others are reporting that the team has not moved off of its previous seven-year offer. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that the ChiSox have not made any alterations to their original seven-year offer, which was put on the table about two weeks back. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago suggests the same, via Twitter, adding that the offer presently on the table to Machado is valued between $25-30MM annually. That’d peg Chicago’s offer somewhere in the $175-210MM range — well shy of Machado’s reported $325MM+ target.

  • While the White Sox have gone to some unique measures to make Chicago a bit more appealing for Machado — acquiring his brother-in-law, Yonder Alonso, and signing close friend Jon Jay — SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Machado won’t be wooed by anything other than the largest offer (which goes without saying for the majority of free agents). More interesting from Martino’s report is the possibility of some dark-horse teams in the mix on Machado. While Martino acknowledges that the “mystery team” trope is overplayed and is “often mocked for good reason, we hear reliably that it’s true in this case.”
  • The Indians are still dabbling in trade talks, but it doesn’t sound as if the team has much hope of moving Jason Kipnis. According to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer, there was an effort to do so previously. But while an improved second half helped the Cleveland cause, the crowded second base market made it hard to find any traction. The 31-year-old has turned in below-average offensive seasons for two years running, but he’s still a useful player and has a significant established ceiling. The recent showing isn’t enough to justify his $14.5MM salary, particularly with another $2.5MM promised as a buyout on a 2020 option, but the Indians surely feel they can make good use of Kipnis in the season to come. For now, he’s penciled in at second base but his ability to play the outfield could give the Indians some added flexibility as they seek a means of improving their lineup.
  • While a rumor sprang up this evening that the Braves had a deal with Marwin Gonzalez, that doesn’t seem to have any legs. Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deports tweets that the Atlanta organization has not made any offers to the free agent, though it has shown interest in him. Presumably, the Braves see Gonzalez as a potential option in the corner outfield for the coming season. His versatility would be an asset, too, as he’d be capable of covering in the infield if a need arose in the near or long term. Of course, it remains unclear whether the Braves will pursue a multi-year deal with Gonzalez or another free agent, or whether they’ll try to wait out the market in hopes of securing a quality player on a short-term deal.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/14/19

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It was a quiet day on the minor moves front, but there is one to catch up on …

  • Lefty Daniel Schlereth has landed with the Red Sox on a minors deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). He’ll have to earn his way into MLB camp, as the deal doesn’t include an invite. The 32-year-old Schlereth hasn’t seen the majors since 2012, but has kept at it over the intervening years. Mot recently, he appeared briefly last year with the Mariners organization. In parts of nine seasons at Triple-A, the former first-round pick carries a 3.50 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 6.9 BB/9.

MLBTR Poll: Best Value On A High-AAV, Two-Year Deal

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Scanning down the board of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, it’s easy to identify the large group of players who were good enough to command annual salaries approaching or exceeding ten million dollars, but as to whom contract length was in question entering the winter. Many of those players, in fact, have already agreed to terms.

With the dust having settled for such a large portion of the market, I thought it’d be interesting to see how MLBTR’s readership views some of those contracts. In making predictions on these players, we thought long and hard about where the deal would end up, often focusing on the question whether the player could secure a third guaranteed season. Some did; some didn’t.

Here, we’ll focus on those players who ended up with two-year contracts, when it seemed at least possible at the outset of the market that a lengthier deal would be available. The question is: which of these deals looks like the best buy for the team in question? (Response order randomized; link for app users.)

Best Two-Year Signing To Date
Wilson Ramos -- Mets, $19MM 15.38% (3,386 votes)
Andrew Miller -- Cardinals, $25MM 11.13% (2,449 votes)
Daniel Murphy -- Rockies, $24MM 11.02% (2,426 votes)
David Robertson -- Phillies, $23MM 10.80% (2,378 votes)
Michael Brantley -- Astros, $32MM 10.24% (2,254 votes)
DJ LeMahieu -- Yankees, $24MM 10.16% (2,237 votes)
Jed Lowrie -- Mets, $20MM 9.37% (2,063 votes)
Charlie Morton -- Rays, $30MM 9.21% (2,028 votes)
J.A. Happ -- Yankees, $34MM 7.15% (1,574 votes)
Kelvin Herrera -- White Sox, $18MM 3.47% (763 votes)
Anibal Sanchez -- Nationals, $19MM 2.07% (455 votes)
Total Votes: 22,013

Padres, Reds, Indians Have Discussed 3-Team Scenario Involving Corey Kluber

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The Padres, Reds, and Indians have engaged in discussions regarding a possible three-team trade scenario, according to Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).

Precise permutations aren’t known, but the concept at play appears to be one that would send Cleveland ace Corey Kluber to Cincinnati via San Diego. Neither is it clear how serious talks are; Lin does emphasize, though, that no deal is close at present.

It seems the driving force here is the Friars’ search for a third baseman — and their ongoing attempt to structure a significant deal that improves the MLB roster now without denting the future outlook. Having failed to line up in direct talks to this point, Lin suggests, GM A.J. Preller is attempting to piece together more complicated, three-team arrangements.

While the Padres have long been said to be seeking quality MLB starting pitching, in addition to a hot corner upgrade, the report makes clear that they aren’t interested in acquiring Kluber for their own purposes. Though the outstanding righty certainly would be the ace the club would like to pick up, his relatively advanced age (33 in April) is a turnoff. And though his contract rights — $52.5MM over the next three years, the latter two via club option — remain quite appealing, it’s still a hefty payroll commitment for a traditionally low-budget org.

Of course, that same essential description holds also for the Reds, another team that’s hoping to boost its immediate performance while maintaining its long-term vision for a young, sustainable core. The Cincy ballclub has long been said to have interest in Kluber, and may have a slightly different tolerance for the age risk that comes with him.

Still, it’s no surprise to hear Lin reiterate that the club still isn’t terribly inclined to deal top prospect Nick Senzel to facilitate a deal. Senzel will not be parted with lightly, but indications are that he may ultimately be the object of the Padres’ fascination here. He’d more or less step right in at third base in San Diego and deliver a prized combination of youthful upside and affordable team control.

That leads to the element of this concept that’s most curious of all. The budget-conscious Indians only embarked upon talks involving Kluber as part of an effort to trim some payroll and better situate their roster for the future — all without sacrificing a still-clear path to another AL Central crown. That entire undertaking makes the most sense if the club adds a player of Senzel’s ilk.

Senzel would fit perfectly in Cleveland, where he could line up in the infield or outfield. (The Reds, of course, have considered utilizing him on the grass due to their own bumper crop of quality infielders.) Presumably, the Reds and Indians have already explored a Senzel-for-Kluber deal directly and failed to find common ground. Otherwise, it’s hard to see why the intermediary would be needed at all.

If not Senzel, then what would the Indians want out of all this? There’d surely be some level of interest in some of the Padres’ young MLB assets, with outfielder Manuel Margot and catcher Austin Hedges looking to be hypothetical fits from an outside perspective. (Interestingly, those teams lined up last summer on a deal that sent Francisco Mejia — another theoretical match — to San Diego.) But it stands to reason that the Indians would no doubt also demand some top-end young talent to drive the deal. The San Diego farm is loaded, but its very best pieces (Fernando Tatis Jr., especially) may not be on offer.

All said, it’s possible to imagine some permutations that might make sense for all involved, depending upon how the teams value the various potential pieces. But it’s an awfully tricky match. All three clubs are quite payroll sensitive. Of them, the Indians are clearly in the best position to win now, yet they’d be giving up the win-now piece. If there’s real substance to these discussions, or better still an eventual transaction, it’ll certainly represent a fascinating potential case study for understanding contemporary baseball decisionmaking.

Pitching Market Rumors: Giants, Gray, Rangers, Allen, Scrabble

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The pitching market continues to proceed at a steady but unhurried pace, with today’s reunion between the Giants and Derek Holland marking the latest signing of note. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to cover the news from the team’s perspective. While the organization has undergone front office changes since Holland wrapped up a solid performance on a one-year deal in 2018, new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi still made the call to bring back the southpaw. That was due in no small part to the club’s positive experience with him last year, both on and off the field. Zaidi emphasized that the team still wants to find more rotation depth this winter, though it’s far from clear that any further MLB signings will be pursued. It certainly seems possible that the club will add plausible rotation pieces via trade or on minor-league deals.

Here’s the latest on the pitching market:

  • Talks surrounding Sonny Gray have “ramped up” since Yankees’ lefty CC Sabathia was cleared to resume baseball activities last week, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets. The Yankees are discussing Gray with six teams, including the Reds, per Heyman, though previous reports had indicated that Cincinnati’s interest had cooled off since adding Alex Wood and Tanner Roark. Gray agreed to a $7.5MM salary over the weekend, falling shy of MLBTR’s $9.1MM projection and perhaps making him a bit more appealing to clubs who’ve already added a fair bit of payroll this offseason.
  • The Rangers are maintaining interest in adding some free-agent arms to their bullpen and have been in recent contact with the representatives for right-handers Adam Ottavino and Cody Allen, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). However, the likelier route is that the Rangers will add multiple lower-cost relievers rather than one higher-end piece. Rosenthal adds Adam Warren to the list of potential Texas targets and notes that the Rangers are also still looking to add an infielder. Meanwhile, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the Twins still have interest in Allen. Minnesota was connected to Allen earlier this winter and has since signed Blake Parker, though they’re still in the market for additional relief help. Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey knows Allen quite well from his days in the Indians’ front office.
  • Free-agent lefty Marc Rzepczynski is hosting a showcase for big league teams tomorrow, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. The 33-year-old southpaw struggled tremendously in 2018 both at the Majors and in Triple-A, and he’ll look to audition for clubs on what figures to be a minor league deal with a chance to reestablish himself as a credible option. “Scrabble” has worked as a lefty specialist for the bulk of his career, as he hasn’t topped 50 innings since 2011 despite averaging 64 MLB appearances per season from 2012-17. In his career, he’s held lefties to an awful .225/.296/.305 batting line through 857 plate appearances.

Rays To Sign Avisail Garcia

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The Rays have reached agreement on a contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia. He’ll earn at least $3.5MM on the one-year deal, with the potential for more.

The 27-year-old, who was non-tendered by the White Sox just before the deadline earlier in the offseason, can achieve an additional $2.5M via incentive pay tied to his playing time. He’ll get $250K upon reaching 350 plate appearances and do the same for every fifty more thereafter, through his 600th PA. There’s another $1MM payout if he strides to the plate 650 times.

Avisail Garcia | Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay has reportedly been in the market for a right-handed bat and, if finalized, will bring a buy-low candidate who fits that description into the fold with Garcia. Hamstring issues torpedoed Garcia’s 2018 season, as he was limited to just 93 games and managed just a .236/.281/.438 batting line in 385 plate appearances. A year prior, though, Garcia enjoyed a breakout campaign with a .330/.380/.506 slash through 561 plate appearances.

Truthfully, though, it’s difficult to know what to make of Garcia. His 2017 season was very clearly inflated to an extent by a .392 average on balls in play that he isn’t ever likely to repeat (or even approach). Garcia struck out at a career-low 19.8 percent clip that season, but he also hit the ball on the ground at a 52.2 percent clip — hardly a trend that is conducive to success for a plodding player who is listed at 6’4″ and 240 pounds.

Garcia seemed a prime regression candidate in 2018, and while that held true when looking at his bottom-line stats, there were actually a fair number of silver linings in an otherwise disastrous season. Garcia hit the ball in the air at a career-high 34.4 percent rate, resulting in a clear power surge. Despite having just 385 PAs last season, he clubbed a career-high 19 home runs, and his .202 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was easily a career-high mark as well. Moreover, Garcia’s hard-hit rate jumped from 40.7 percent in 2017 to 43.2 percent in 2018, per Statcast. At the same time, though, Garcia also punched out in a career-worst 26.5 percent of his plate appearances.

Those past two seasons, in many ways, are a microcosm of Garcia’s career. He’s long been touted as a potential impact bat and clearly has some raw offensive capabilities, but he’s never been able to consistently tap into that talent. In fact, outside of that All-Star 2017 season, Garcia has essentially been a replacement-level player because of the fact that he’s graded out as a poor defender over parts of seven big league seasons.

The Rays have a strong defensive mix in the outfield with Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Meadows lined up for regular work, so it’s perhaps likelier that Garcia will see more time at designated hitter and play in the outfield corners only sparingly. Tampa Bay, then, is betting firmly on the offensive potential that has teased both the Tigers and White Sox so often in the past but rarely manifested itself over a consistent stretch in the Majors. If the Rays can cut back on Garcia’s strikeouts while helping him to maintain his hard-contact and fly-ball gains, however, he could prove to be a bargain source of pop in 2019 before returning to the open market next winter.

Tampa Bay already has Yandy Diaz lined up for some regular work at designated hitter, though he could also see time at first base with Ji-Man Choi as well. And given that neither Choi nor Diaz is a proven asset, it’s possible that either could struggle and thus further open at-bats for Garcia, who already figures to be in line for fairly regular playing time.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that a deal was close (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of Fancred (links to Twitter) reported that it was done and had financial details. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden first tweeted the total guarantee.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Sign Yasmani Grandal

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3:45pm: Grandal’s contract actually contains a 2020 option, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll earn $16MM in 2019, and his option is also for $16MM with a $2.25MM buyout. It’s a mutual option, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. As he notes, mutual options are virtually never exercised by both parties.

Jan. 14, 2:59pm: The Brewers have officially announced the signing.

Jan. 9, 10:16pm: Yahoo’s Tim Brown reports that Grandal will be guaranteed $18.25MM in 2019 (Twitter link).

10:06pm: The Brewers are in agreement on a contract with free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a one-year contract for Grandal, however, which pales in comparison to the four-year contract that was reportedly offered by the Mets earlier this offseason. Rosenthal adds that the deal is still pending the completion of a physical.

Yasmani Grandal

Clearly, the decision to spurn a four-year offer from New York looks especially regrettable now, even if, as Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted yesterday, the Mets’ offer was actually for a bit less than the initially reported $60MM figure. The exact size of the proposed guarantee isn’t known, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets it was in excess of $50MM, and Rosenthal tweets that the Mets’ offer could have reached $60MM in total value, presumably indicating that there were some incentives or escalator clauses at play.

It’s still possible, of course, for Grandal to come out ahead over the 2019-22 seasons. A strong showing with the Brewers could yet net him a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency next year — when he won’t have a qualifying offer attached to his name. A three-year offer in the range of $13-14MM per season next winter would effectively recoup the money Grandal’s camp turned away, and it’s hardly unthinkable that he could deliver a strong enough performance to land another four-year offer a year from now and actually earn even more.

For Milwaukee, getting an upgrade of Grandal’s caliber on a one-year pact was likely something they never envisioned as a possibility when the offseason began. Many expected him to land at least a three-year contract, and we at MLBTR predicted that he’d land a four-year, $64MM deal which apparently checks in just north of what the Mets offered him earlier this winter. A one-year deal simply never seemed likely.

As a revenue-sharing recipient, the Brewers will forfeit their third-highest selection in next year’s draft as penalty for signing Grandal. That’s a fairly small price to pay for a win-now club that has successfully upgraded one of its most glaring deficiencies, though, especially when considering the fact that they already traded their Competitive Balance pick (No. 39 overall) to acquire Alex Claudio in a trade with the Rangers. Because of that deal, Milwaukee’s third-highest selection is their third-round pick — currently No. 104 overall in the draft.

Milwaukee catchers combined to post a meager .237/.294/.363 batting line with 16 home runs in 637 plate appearances last season. Grandal, meanwhile, hit .241/.349/.466 in full-time duty with the Dodgers last season, meaning he should provide the Brew Crew with a substantial boost in terms of both on-base percentage and overall power. Salvador Perez was the only catcher in baseball with more home runs than Grandal’s 24 big flies last season, and no catcher (min. 300 PA) topped Grandal’s .225 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average).  In other words, the Brewers are quite arguably getting the game’s most powerful catcher.

On the defensive side of the coin, most casual onlookers will surely recall Grandal’s disastrous postseason, during which he yielded three passed balls before eventually ceding playing time to backup Austin Barnes for a second consecutive October. But Grandal has prevented stolen bases at a league-average or better rate in each of the past four seasons, and there’s no catcher in baseball who has consistently graded out as strongly as Grandal in terms of pitch-framing. The postseason passed-ball issues aren’t exactly a total hiccup for Grandal, who has thrice led the National League in passed balls allowed, but his adequate throwing and elite framing have nevertheless led to consistently top-shelf ratings in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average category. Grandal is also perennially among the league leaders in Defensive Runs Saved at catcher, with a collective +45 DRS across the past four seasons.

For the Brewers, he’ll serve as an unequivocal upgrade over the previously projected pairing of Manny Pina and Erik Kratz and deepen a lineup that already ranked sixth in the National League in on-base percentage and second in home runs. The Brewers aren’t set to lose any key members of the lineup with the exception of midseason acquisition Mike Moustakas, so they’ll essentially be adding Grandal to the same lineup that proved to be one of the NL’s best in 2018.

From a payroll perspective, Grandal will push the Brewers’ Opening Day projection to $123.5MM, as Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource. That mark would shatter the Brewers’ previous franchise record, as the organization has only twice had a $100MM+ payroll in its entire history — in 2014-15 when the Opening Day payrolls checked in at $103.5MM and $104.3MM. Of course, the Brewers have a bit more funds at their disposal having just completed a deep postseason run. That NLCS appearance also makes it easier for Mark Attanasio to spend aggressively, as his team is now firmly past its rebuilding phase and is a widely projected playoff contender.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, will stand to gain a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Currently, that round runs through the 78th overall selection, though further free-agent machinations could slightly alter the exact placement of picks. Regardless, the Dodgers will add a pick in the late 70s or very early 80s as compensation for losing Grandal.

It’s at least somewhat curious that the Dodgers wouldn’t make an effort to bring Grandal back on a one-year deal, now knowing that was an option he was willing to consider. Perhaps Grandal simply wasn’t interested in returning to L.A., or perhaps the Dodgers soured on Grandal after his ongoing passed-ball issues. However, the catching position is still a glaring need in Los Angeles, where Barnes is currently lined up as the starter but neither of the organization’s top catching prospects, Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith, are ready for a look at the MLB level just yet. The Dodgers have myriad other options available to them, both in trade and on the free-agent market, but they were willing to risk Grandal accepting a $17.9MM salary just a few short months ago.

Yankees Designate Tim Locastro For Assignment

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The Yankees announced Monday that they have designated infielder/outfielder Tim Locastro for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will to to veteran DJ LeMahieu, whose previously reported two-year deal is now official.

New York acquired the 26-year-old Locastro from the Dodgers earlier this season, sending minor league righty Drew Finley to Los Angeles in return. Locastro, however, doesn’t appear as though he’ll get the opportunity to suit up for the Yankees unless he clears waivers and works his way back into the MLB picture following an outright assignment.

Locastro has just 15 MLB plate appearances to his name, but he’s a .307/.402/.443 hitter with six homers, 33 doubles, two triples and 30 stolen bases (in 34 attempts) in just 114 games of Triple-A experience. The Yankees referred to Locastro as an outfielder only, likely indicative of how they planned to use him, but he’s played all over the field in the minors and has spent most of his time at second base and shortstop. He does have a pair of options remaining, so he could be viewed as a depth piece by another club.

Yankees Sign DJ LeMahieu

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Jan. 14: The Yankees have now announced the deal.

Jan. 11, 7:50pm: The deal promises LeMahieu $12MM in each of its two seasons, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

11:43am: LeMahieu is heading to the Yankees, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. His contract is believed to be a two-year deal with a guarantee in the range of $24MM.

11:40am: The Yankees are closing in on a two-year contract with free-agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network (Twitter links). New York’s plan for LeMahieu is to use him as a multi-positional asset, where he’ll see time at second base, third base and even at first base, per Curry.

DJ LeMahieu | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

With LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki now in the fold, Manny Machado looks to be less of a fit in the Bronx than ever, although the addition of those two players certainly doesn’t preclude a signing. There’s been talk earlier this winter of the possibility that the Yanks could yet move an infielder, and Tulowitzki’s league-minimum salary doesn’t represent much of an impediment if the Yankees decide to alter their course. That said, there’s no denying that today’s agreement with LeMahieu does seem to make that long-speculated match with Machado considerably less plausible.

The Yankees’ infield now likely consists of Miguel Andujar at third base, Tulowitzki at short, Gleyber Torres at second base and Luke Voit at first, with LeMahieu filling in as a versatile super-sub and Greg Bird also on hand as an option at first base. Didi Gregorius, of course, will join that mix later this season when he is sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery. It’s a crowded mix but a deep and highly talented one that should provide the Yankees plenty of insurance against injury while also allowing them to field a strong lineup even on days when their top bats are resting.

LeMahieu, 29, is perennially among the game’s premier defensive second baseman and has consistently hit for average, though his overall production has wavered somewhat on a year-over-year basis. LeMahieu won a surprise National League batting title when he hit .348/.416/.495 in a career year back in 2016, but while he followed that up with a high-quality .310 average in 2017, his power fell off, as he slugged just .409 that season and posted a .099 ISO (slugging minus batting average). This past season, most of his pop returned, but his overall output checked in at .276/.321/.428 — rather pedestrian production when considering his hitter-friendly home setting (86 wRC+).

All in all, LeMahieu generally rates as an average or better overall hitter with premium defensive skills. He’s batted a combined .309/.369/.429 across the past four seasons and been one of the toughest strikeouts in the league over that span, punching out in just 14.2 percent of his plate appearances. And while some will make a point to note that his home/road splits are rather pronounced, he’ll be moving from Coors Field to yet another one of the game’s premier hitters’ parks, Yankee Stadium.

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