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Cubs To Sign Rob Scahill

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The Cubs have agreed to a minors deal with righty Rob Scahill, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). It is not yet known whether Scahill will receive a spring invite, though it stands to reason that he would.

Scahill, who’ll turn 32 right as camp opens, has appeared in each of the past seven MLB seasons, though he has yet to tally 35 frames in a given campaign. All told, the reliever owns a 3.85 ERA through 149 2/3 innings. He has managed just 6.0 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in that stretch, but does carry a healthy 55.0% groundball rate.

For most of the 2018 season, Scahill pitched for the White Sox’ top affiliate. Though he only provided Charlotte with a 5.64 ERA, Scahill did post an uncharacteristically robust tally of 10.5 strikeouts per nine.

Barring injury, the odds seem long for Scahill to crack the Opening Day roster for the Cubs. Still, he could be a worthwhile depth piece for the Chicago organization and will enter Spring Training with at least a fighting chance at staking a claim to big league pen job.

NL East Notes: McNeil, Marlins, Braves

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The Mets’ additions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie have eaten up most of the infield at-bats that would’ve otherwise gone to breakout 2018 rookie Jeff McNeil, writes Anthony DiComo in his latest inbox column. As such, McNeil now looks outfield bound in 2019 — a role he’s only played in a total of nine minor league games. While Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are locked into outfield spots — likely in center and right field — McNeil will join Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton in the mix for additional outfield playing time. (Yoenis Cespedes’ status for the 2019 season is uncertain following surgery on both heels.) It’s curious to see McNeil to a more limited role after the 26-year-old burst onto the scene with a .329/.381/.471 slash in 248 plate appearances, though surely the organization feels its depth on the position player side is formidable. For those wondering, DiComo notes that Todd Frazier isn’t likely to be moved coming off a career-worst year, adding that GM Brodie Van Wagenen indicated Frazier is expected to receive regular at-bats at the infield corners. It’s somewhat curious, then, that the Mets chose to deepen their infield mix with Lowrie rather than add a reliever like Adam Ottavino, who agreed to a $9MM annual salary on a three-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.

Here’s more from the National League East…

  • Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides an update on a sleepy Marlins offseason, explaining that the club is still waiting for some bigger things to fall into place before adding to its roster. Beyond the obvious fact that the rebuilding club is waiting to see what players might fall through the cracks in free agency, the Marlins are not particularly interested in making moves before lining up a hopeful trade involving star catcher J.T. Realmuto. That deal could return some MLB pieces, which would dictate the team’s further needs. Jackson also reports that Miami would like to add a lefty bat who can play both the infield and the outfield — a perplexing target considering the fact that the Marlins cut Derek Dietrich, who fits that description to a tee, rather than pay him a projected $4.8MM salary. Jackson again notes that right-hander Dan Straily is available, though Miami isn’t shopping him and would be happy to have him in the rotation in 2019 if a solid offer doesn’t materialize.
  • The Braves likely wouldn’t offer Craig Kimbrel more than three years to bring him back to Atlanta, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com, and even then, the average annual value Kimbrel figures to seek could prove prohibitive. The outfield and the rotation, it seems, are still larger priorities for Atlanta decision-makers. Bowman notes that the Braves have not pursued Adam Jones in free agency despite a clear corner outfield opening, instead citing Nick Markakis as the likeliest free agent for the team to pursue.

Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford

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With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.

Here’s the latest on the relief market:

  • The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel’s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
  • With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
  • Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.

Marlins To Sign Hector Noesi

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The Marlins have inked a deal with righty Hector Noesi, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. It’s not clear whether the minor-league accord includes a spring invite, but Noesi can earn $800K if he cracks the MLB roster.

It has been some time since Noesi, who’ll soon turn 32, has appeared at the game’s highest level. He threw nearly four hundred innings over a five-year span from 2011 to 2015, pitching to a 5.30 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

In the interim, Noesi has plied his trade abroad. He carried an excellent 3.44 ERA over 408 1/3 innings in his first two seasons in the hitter-friendly KBO, though he slipped to a 4.60 ERA in 174 frames last year. Most recently, Noesi has made five strong starts in the Dominican Winter League.

Rays To Sign Luis Santos

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The Rays have a minor-league deal with righty Luis Santos, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). It seems he’ll receive an invitation to MLB camp.

Soon to turn 28, Santos has thrown 36 2/3 major league innings over the past two seasons. He has allowed 21 earned runs in that span, with eight home runs putting a big dent in the bottom line. Santos does carry a solid combination of forty strikeouts against 14 walks in his still-nascent MLB career.

Formerly a starter, Santos worked almost exclusively in a relief capacity in 2018 in both the majors and minors. In 42 2/3 frames spread over twenty appearances for Triple-A Buffalo, Santos pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.

The multi-inning capabilities are surely of interest to the Rays. Beyond that, Santos has also shown some interesting skills. He carries a 14.2% swinging-strike rate during his time in the majors and last year averaged over 94 mph with his fastball.

Nationals To Sign Vidal Nuno

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The Nationals have agreed to a minor-league deal with southpaw Vidal Nuno, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB Spring Training as well as opt-out opportunities if he doesn’t earn a roster spot. Nuno would earn at a $1.3MM rate in the big leagues.

Nuno, 31, turned in a sparkling 1.64 ERA in 33 frames last year for the Rays. His underlying peripherals, however, were not quite so promising as the bottom-line results would otherwise suggest. Nuno was helped along by a .216 batting average on balls in play and 100% strand rate.

Teams clearly do not anticipate that Nuno will be capable of replicating his 2018 output; otherwise, he’d have been claimed when he was outrighted after the end of the season or would have commanded a MLB deal in free agency. Still, he seems to be a worthwhile depth piece, having compiled a 4.06 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over nearly four hundred career frames at the game’s highest level.

For the Nats, Nuno could represent both rotation and left-handed relief depth. He took ten starts at Triple-A last year but has mostly worked out of the pen in recent major league campaigns. Historically, Nuno has found much greater success against same-handed hitters, so he could compete for a LOOGY job in camp.

Yankees Close To Dealing Sonny Gray

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5:13pm: “A few teams” remain in talks with the Yanks, per Jack Curry of  the YES Network (via Twitter).

3:49pm: The Athletics and Padres are involved, while the Reds do not appear to be, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

Heyman hears that the Giants have entered the picture (Twitter link). Contrary to Martino, he also suggests that the organizations previously rumored to have interest have dropped back — including the A’s and Pads as well as all of the other ballclubs listed below.

3:11pm: David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that any trade of Gray won’t include the Braves. There have been no recent discussions between New York and Atlanta, per O’Brien.

1:51pm: Heyman now tweets that the Yankees are “close” to trading Gray. He adds that New York is receiving interest in right-handed relievers Jonathan Holder and Tommy Kahnle, as well.

1:45pm: The Yankees, who reportedly reached an agreement with Adam Ottavino this afternoon, are “working hard” on a trade of right-hander Sonny Gray, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The team’s effort “appears to be getting more serious,” Heyman writes, noting that previous suitors for Gray have included the Reds, Giants, Brewers, Padres, Athletics, Braves and Mariners. It’s not clear that any of those clubs are at the forefront of New York’s current efforts to move Gray, though.

Gray and the Yankees agreed to a $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season recently. While GM Brian Cashman had previously suggested that the Yanks could hold Gray into the 2019 season despite voicing a preference to find a change of scenery for Gray, that possibility became less likely when CC Sabathia was cleared to resume baseball activities following a December angioplasty procedure. With Sabathia back on track for the ’19 season, Gray once again became a more superfluous piece for the Yanks.

A change of scenery for Gray, 29, only makes sense after he struggled profusely with the Yankees in 2018 — particularly when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray posted a ghastly 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 compared to a 3.17 ERA on the road, and while there’s surely more at play in those splits than the surface-level numbers exhibit, the contrast between the two numbers is unequivocally jarring.

Teams interested in Gray are undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that his velocity remained consistent with its previous levels (93.8 mph average fastball), that his swinging-strike rate remained north of 10 percent and that his ground-ball tendencies (50 percent) remained well above league average. Gray actually allowed home runs at his lowest rate since 2015, as well (0.97 HR/9; 13.3% HR/FB) despite pitching more than 40 percent of his innings at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The righty isn’t far removed from one of the American League’s better arms — he was an in-demand trade commodity at the 2017 deadline when the Yankees acquired him — and he entered the 2018 season with a lifetime 3.45 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 770 1/3 innings. Prior to 2018, he’d only had one season with an ERA higher than 3.55 — an injury-marred 2017 season — and had even finished third in 2015 American League Cy Young voting. While Gray surely has a long way to go to get back to that level, he’s a quality buy-low option whose $7.5MM salary should be affordable for just about any team in need of pitching help.

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Land Sonny Gray?

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Often, when reports emerge that a particular player is about to be traded, it isn’t long thereafter that the landing spot is reported. Today, there’s indication that the Yankees are closing in on a deal involving righty Sonny Gray, but it’s still not yet clear where he could be heading. That leaves an opening to do a quick poll to get the final predictions of MLBTR’s readers.

Gray, 29, could fit with quite a few organizations, even after a less-than-inspiring 2018 campaign. He’s an accomplished hurler who is slated to earn a rather reasonable $7.5MM for the coming season — a manageable rate of pay even if he’s not able to get back to producing high-end results.

With Gray having been marketed so heavily all winter long, the list of interested teams is by now well-known, though surely others could yet also be involved. In my chat today, I was asked about the possibility of him landing with at least half of the teams in baseball. Rather than trying to pick a narrower list for this poll, then, I’m throwing them all out there for you to sort through.

Where’ll Gray end up? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Sonny Gray Will Likely Be Traded To ...
Padres 17.52% (4,579 votes)
Athletics 10.73% (2,804 votes)
Giants 10.30% (2,693 votes)
Reds 10.06% (2,630 votes)
Brewers 7.33% (1,916 votes)
Braves 5.34% (1,396 votes)
Angels 3.51% (917 votes)
He won't be traded 2.88% (753 votes)
Pirates 2.68% (701 votes)
Cardinals 2.66% (696 votes)
Mariners 2.52% (658 votes)
Dodgers 2.37% (620 votes)
Twins 2.33% (608 votes)
Astros 2.00% (524 votes)
Cubs 2.00% (522 votes)
White Sox 1.96% (512 votes)
Phillies 1.88% (491 votes)
Blue Jays 1.77% (464 votes)
Mets 1.65% (432 votes)
Rangers 1.36% (356 votes)
Red Sox 1.17% (307 votes)
Nationals 0.96% (251 votes)
Orioles 0.95% (248 votes)
Tigers 0.81% (212 votes)
Indians 0.75% (195 votes)
Royals 0.63% (164 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.57% (149 votes)
Rays 0.50% (131 votes)
Marlins 0.45% (118 votes)
Rockies 0.37% (96 votes)
Total Votes: 26,143

Cubs Owner Discusses Lack Of Offseason Activity

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Cubs owner Tom Ricketts went on the Mully & Haugh Show on 670 The Score this morning, making an attempt to defend the Cubs’ quiet offseason.  (Hat tip to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, who wrote an article here).

Ricketts began, “First of all, we have spent money this offseason. We signed Cole Hamels, and we picked up Descalso, and I’m sure Theo’s got a few moves left in him.”  We’ll hit pause there to note that to allow for Hamels’ $20MM option to be picked up, the Cubs had to ship Drew Smyly and his $7MM salary to the Rangers.  That series of moves suggested that the Cubs felt they had to make a tradeoff to retain Hamels, compromising their rotation depth but saving money.  Beyond that, Descalso was inked to a two-year, $5MM deal, after Tommy La Stella and his (eventual) $1.35MM salary was dealt to the Angels.  So, the Hamels and Descalso moves added $13.15MM to the Cubs’ payroll.

Ricketts continued, “But frankly, we have one of the largest budgets in all of baseball. We put that to work, we’ve definitely signed a lot of players over the years. We have a team that we like. We have a team that we think is going to go a long way. We have a team that won 95 games last year without a lot of help from some of the guys we picked up last offseason. And all the different things that we fought through last year – the injuries, everyone’s having kind of down years, some of the off-field distractions…we like our club.  And we’re among the very top spenders. So, I just think all that stuff’s kind of misguided.”

Ricketts had two refrains in this interview: we are already spending a lot of money on players, and we have a great team already.

Ricketts said that despite having unique stadium and tax expenses that other teams do not have, the Cubs are one of the “top few spenders” in baseball.  He suggested the club could never spend at the level of the Yankees or Dodgers, implying the Cubs sit third behind them in payroll.  Looking at 2018 end of season luxury tax payrolls from the Associated Press, the Cubs ranked fifth behind the Red Sox, Nationals, Giants, and Dodgers.  Why the Cubs cannot spend like the Red Sox is unclear.  Perhaps the problem is that the Cubs had for the most part set expectations of heavy offseason spending:

So the Cubs signed a $126MM+ player in three of the last four winters.  It’s not that they haven’t spent money, it’s just that at this point in their competitive window, they’ve chosen an odd winter to stop spending.  The Cubs’ brief playoff appearance this year, Theo Epstein’s “our offense broke” comment the following day, and the once-a-decade availability of free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado led most fans to think the team would be firmly in the mix for a major offensive upgrade, particularly Harper.  Instead, Ricketts suggested the team had little room for improvement, saying, “The fact is we look at our lineup, and you look around the horn and who would you switch out?”

Though this was intended as a rhetorical question, it’s one that has many good answers.  FanGraphs projects the 2019 Cubs at 87 wins, with the Cardinals coming in at 86 after the addition of Paul Goldschmidt.  There’s also the Brewers, who have handily beaten projections over the last few years and won 96 games in 2018.  I’ll take the over on FanGraphs’ 79 win projection for Milwaukee, while the Reds and Pirates also land in that 79-80 projection range.  All five NL Central teams should be competitive.  The Cubs hardly have the division locked down, so who would you switch out?

The Cubs were expected to move on from Addison Russell after his domestic violence suspension came down and further details emerged, but he remains penciled in at shortstop after tallying 2.9 WAR over the last two seasons combined.  Their outfield consists of Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist – hardly a crew that should block Harper or even Andrew McCutchen.  The bullpen has glaring holes, with closer Brandon Morrow starting the season on the DL and the Cubs choosing not to bring Jesse Chavez back.  The Cubs are looking at Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek, Mike Montgomery, Brandon Kintzler, and Brian Duensing in the pen, with the expectation being that Epstein will continue to sit out the bidding for top free agents.  Craig Kimbrel remains on the market, while Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly, David Robertson, Kelvin Herrera, and Joakim Soria are off the board.

Though Ricketts has typically participated in a fan Q&A at the annual Cubs Convention, he won’t be doing so at the event this weekend.  He laughingly cited having the “lowest-rated panel” as the justification, but the cancellation of the panel coinciding with the club’s quiet offseason is a bad look for the team.  Fan frustration has reached a boiling point this winter, and that’s why the owner should be accountable.  While Ricketts noted that the panel could be brought back next year if people want it, why not just reverse course this year and field fan questions?

With the Cubs’ core of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez in place for only three more years, Ricketts has decided to sit out the 2018-19 offseason.  Ricketts asked fans to withhold judgment on the choice, saying this morning, “We’re going to be great, and I think people people should judge us by what happens during the season, not what happens in December.”

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