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Bud Norris Hires Ballengee Group

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Free agent reliever Bud Norris has made a late-breaking agency change. Per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter, Norris is now represented by the Ballengee Group.

Norris, who’s closing in on his 34th birthday, evidently hasn’t been pleased with the opportunities he has been afforded to this point on the open market. He’s coming off of a $3MM deal that he signed with the Cardinals last February, just before the start of Spring Training.

The St. Louis org received a quality contribution for its money, as Norris tossed 57 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with 10.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He also recorded 28 saves after stepping into the closer’s role for the Cards. Norris sat at 95 mph with his four-seam fastball, continued to get good results with a cutter, and reached a 12% swinging-strike rate for the second-straight season.

That showing seemed likely to boost Norris’s market standing, but there has been little in the way of reported interest to this point. That isn’t necessarily unusual for a non-star reliever. Still, with just two weeks left until camps begin to open, his market outlook is unclear. MLBTR predicted that Norris would secure a two-year, $12MM deal on the open market, though that obviously represents only a best guess after contemplating a wide range of plausible outcomes.

Reds “In Serious Discussions” With Zach Duke

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The Reds are engaged “in serious discussions” with free agent southpaw Zach Duke, according to C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The likelihood of a deal coming together is not yet known.

It remains an active winter for the Cincinnati front office, which increasingly seems to have created an opportunity to compete in what could be a tightly packed NL Central division. Among other things, the club has targeted lefty relief assets, having already agreed to minors deals with Buddy Boshers and Ian Krol.

Bringing in Duke would give the Cincy bullpen a much-needed option against opposing lefty hitters. Though Amir Garrett showed well in the pen last year, he’s still not fully polished and actually has been just as effective against righties at the MLB level. Otherwise, the club stands to rely upon the above-noted minor-league signees along with Wandy Peralta and Brandon Finnegan, both of whom are looking to bounce back from rough 2018 campaigns.

Duke had his own stumbles last year, particularly after joining the Mariners in a mid-season trade. He ended the season with a 4.15 ERA in 52 innings, with 8.8 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9. But Duke surrendered only a single long ball on the year and checked in with a monster 59.4% groundball rate. He also held opposing lefties to a meager .220/.283/.319 batting line.

Diamondbacks Designate Jake Barrett

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The Diamondbacks have designated righty Jake Barrett for assignment, per a club announcement. His roster spot goes to just-signed righty Greg Holland.

Barrett, 27, is a former third-round pick who has thrown 93 1/3 innings for the Snakes over the past three years. He owns a 4.05 cumulative ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9.

Though he got off to a promising start back in 2016, when he worked off of a mid-nineties heater to generate a 12.3% swinging-strike rate, Barrett has since taken a step back. His whiff rate has trended down and his walk rate has gone up, leaving him with little in the way of MLB opportunities in 2018. He was effective last year at Triple-A, though, pitching to a 2.87 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 53 1/3 innings over 42 appearances.

Rockies Avoid Arbitration With Nolan Arenado

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The Rockies have agreed to terms on a 2019 salary with star third baseman Nolan Arenado, according a team announcement. He’ll receive $26MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), representing a record sum for an arbitration salary.

At the filing deadline for arbitration numbers, indications were that the Rox were confident they’d work something out before going to a hearing. Still, the sides were quite far apart, with Arenado filing for $30MM and the team submitting a $24MM figure — both landing above the prior $23MM record of Josh Donaldson.

As it turns out, Arenado comes in just a shade under the $26.1MM that MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected. As Swartz discussed in breaking down Arenado’s case, there were arguments to swing that figure in either direction, but the model obviously produced quite an accurate prediction.

Arenado is a perennial All-Star, Gold Glove winner, and MVP candidate. Plus, his power numbers are certainly not hurt by the fact that he plays at Coors Field. It’s no surprise, then, that he’d be the one to reach new heights in arbitration earnings.

The more intriguing question is whether the arb talks will set the stage for longer-term discussions between the Rockies and their biggest star. As Rosenthal notes on Twitter, today’s agreement came after a lengthy, in-person discussion — an indication, perhaps, that the sides may be able to work together to hammer out a much larger contract.

As always, you can keep up to date on the arb money by referencing MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

Diamondbacks Sign Greg Holland

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TODAY: The team has announced the signing.

YESTERDAY: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent reliever Greg Holland, according to Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Boras Corporation client secures a $3.25MM guarantee and $3.5MM in possible incentives, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). Holland still must pass a physical before the contract will be finalized.

Now 33 years of age, Holland is not the same pitcher that once featured as one of the game’s most dominant relievers. Indeed, he last pitched as a true relief ace back in 2014. He blew out his elbow in the ensuing campaign and has never fully regained his velocity.

That’s not to say that Holland hasn’t shown his share of ability in the ensuing seasons. He turned in a successful 2017 campaign for the Rockies, so much so that he received and rejected a qualifying offer from the organization in the following winter. And though things went terribly last year with the Cardinals after a late-spring signing, Holland did rebound later in the season with the Nationals.

It truly was a dramatic turnaround, though it’s hard to pinpoint the root cause for the change. In his 25 frames in St. Louis, Holland surrendered as many earned runs and free passes as he recorded strikeouts (22 apiece). Upon arriving in D.C., Holland contributed 21 1/3 innings over which he posted a 25:10 K/BB ratio and permitted only a pair of earned runs on just nine hits.

Over the course of the season, Holland proved capable of limiting the long ball, as he has long done. And he still generated a strong 13.1% swinging-strike rate. Clearly, the D-Backs won’t anticipate the full-fledged re-emergence of the once-great closer, but they’ve evidently seen enough to believe that Holland can still be a quality, late-inning arm.

The exact plan for Holland’s usage isn’t yet evident, but it would hardly be surprising to see him receive at least a full-blown shot at earning the closer’s gig this spring. Archie Bradley currently profiles as the top ninth-inning option in Arizona, but he has been successful in a more flexible role. Details of Holland’s incentives package aren’t yet known, but could offer a hint as to the expectations of all involved.

Needless to say, the Cardinals did not see a return on the $14MM they invested in Holland last year. It’s tough to imagine the Diamondbacks ending up with a similar sense of regret, given the much lower amount promised. If they end up paying Holland the full $6.75MM contemplated in the contract, it’ll only be because he warranted the opportunities. Beyond that, even if the Snakes prove unable to mount a surprise challenge for the postseason, they ought to have an opportunity to spin off Holland (and his remaining financial obligations) to another team over the summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Possible Brewers Free Agent Targets

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The Brewers already made one significant free agent acquisition this winter, snagging backstop Yasmani Grandal on a one-year arrangement when he failed to find a multi-year deal to his liking. It seems the organization is still eyeing some additional potential targets, according to a report from Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links).

Most intriguingly, Haudricourt says that he’s heard of at least some connection between the club and veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who’s the best free-agent starter still on the open market. Fellow lefty Gio Gonzalez is also an apparent possibility, as is third baseman Mike Moustakas. Both of those players, of course, spent the back end of the 2018 campaign in Milwaukee.

As Haudricourt points out, all three of the aforementioned players are clients of Scott Boras. The super-agent has seemingly struck up a chummy relationship with Brewers owner Mark Attanasio over the years. Indeed, they were able to line up on a rare extension of a star Boras client (Carlos Gomez).

Of course, that sort of connection will only go so far, particularly since Attanasio has relied heavily upon the judgment of recently promoted president of baseball operations David Stearns. To this stage in his tenure, Stearns has eschewed large pitching entanglements.

A large and lengthy deal for Keuchel, then, would be especially surprising. Still, it would make some sense for the organization not only to seek a rotation upgrade, but to target a lefty starter in particular. Virtually all of the team’s rotation or long-relief options throw from the right side. Though the bullpen includes two valuable southpaws (Josh Hader and Alex Claudio), skipper Craig Counsell could gain some additional game management possibilities if he can run a southpaw out to start every fifth day.

The Brewers already proved willing to take that sort of thinking to the extreme when they sent out lefty Wade Miley to pitch to just one batter during the fifth game of the National League Championship Series. Interestingly, despite a bounceback campaign last year, Miley himself does not seem to have been targeted to this point for a reunion. The 32-year-old did not exactly have the peripherals to support his 2.57 ERA, but he rewarded the Brewers for the opportunities they were willing to give him and it seemed reasonable to anticipate the team would have some interest.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether Stearns has any more tricks up his sleeves this winter. While the team’s rise to the NL Central title last year has certainly raised the bar in Milwaukee, projection systems are not exactly enamored of the present roster. The middle infield unit is a less-than-inspiring bunch, at least on paper, while the rotation is more notable for its depth than its evident upside. Though there is no clearly dominant team in the division, it seems to be competitive from top to bottom. While the organization likely remains optimistic with the current batch of players, it stands to reason that Stearns is still working on potential additions.

J.T. Realmuto Talks In “Advanced Stages”

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The Marlins’ trade talks centering around J.T. Realmuto have reached “advanced stages,” reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, who lists four possible suitors still in the mix: the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves.

While the report seems to advance things from previous levels, it should be pointed out that this isn’t the first time talks have reportedly gained momentum. In fact, that exact terminology (“gaining momentum”) was used last Friday with no deal yet coming to fruition. Earlier this week, the Reds were said to have “made progress” on a Realmuto swap before those reports were walked back, and it’s now been three weeks to the day since the Marlins were first reported to be in “substantive” trade talks regarding Realmuto.

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, it seems clear that there has at times been a concerted effort to convey the idea that talks have been more productive than is the case in actuality. Perhaps that’s the Miami organization trying to pressure other clubs to inch their offers toward the reported sky-high asking price, but with all due respect to those involved, it’s become difficult to determine just how close a deal is to reality. For instance, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Dodgers aren’t even active in their pursuit at the moment but adds the Rays to the list of current pursuers; Frisaro’s report, in contradictory fashion, says the Rays and Astros look to have largely bowed out of the race while listing the Dodgers as a factor. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted last night that the Padres are more involved than the Dodgers.

The greatest cause for optimism regarding a terminus in this exhausting saga could be the latest column from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required), wherein he writes that there are “signs that [the asking price] has come down in recent days.” The Padres have reportedly sought an extension with Realmuto as a contingency in any trade, though Lin now writes that the organization remains confident it could sell the catcher on its promising future even though the Marlins have denied interested teams a window to negotiate a long-term deal.

Over the past week, the Padres and Reds have been the two teams most strongly linked to Realmuto, with Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay oft rumored to be involved to varying extents. The continually conflicting depiction of the extent to which each is (or isn’t) interested makes individual updates perhaps worth taking with a grain of salt. However, the pronounced increase of rumors surrounding Realmuto does seem to lend credence to the notion that the Marlins have upped their efforts to find a palatable deal.

Twins Rumors: Kimbrel, Grandal, Madson, Norris

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As star closer Craig Kimbrel continues to wait for a new contract, Dan Hayes of The Athletic raised the notion recently (subscription link) that the Twins could position themselves as a landing spot. Kimbrel has reportedly been seeking a five-year deal, though Hayes reports the Twins would only be interested in a shorter-term pact with a high annual value. As Hayes explores, the Twins’ recent but failed bid for Yasmani Grandal suggests that they’re willing to make a run at players they deem to be unique assets in the market. None of that is a declaration that Minnesota is actively pursuing Kimbrel at the moment, but the connection is still of some note.

Were Kimbrel to take a contract of three or fewer years, it’s fair to speculate that he’d look to topple the $17.33MM annual value record for a reliever — currently held by the Rockies’ Wade Davis. Recent comments from Twins baseball ops leaders Derek Falvey and Thad Levine largely downplayed the possibility of any marquee addition to the roster, and Kimbrel would see enhanced interest from more than just Minnesota if his asking price dipped to three or fewer years. With a 2019 payroll that currently checks in more than $20MM south of last season’s Opening Day mark and zero guaranteed contracts in 2020, the Twins arguably have the most financial flexibility of any team in baseball, though that hardly means they should be expected to make a big free-agent splash.

More out of Minnesota…

  • Speaking of the Twins’ interest in Grandal, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN/SKOR North reported in a recent podcast episode (Twins talk starts around 11:50 mark) that Minnesota was willing to go to three years at a total of $13-15MM per season in order to bring Grandal aboard. Grandal’s camp, however, told the Twins quickly and definitively that he wasn’t interested in signing there. Given that Grandal landed one state over in Wisconsin, it’s unlikely that geography played much of a role, so perhaps signing with a clearer contender was a priority. Since signing, Grandal has also spoken about the emphasis he placed on finding an annual value commensurate with the game’s top catchers. It’s rare to see a player turn down three or four years (the latter reportedly offered by the Mets) in order to receive an AAV boost of this size, but every player is wired differently, and Grandal may simply be more open to risk than most. If he has a strong 2019, he could come out ahead next offseason when he won’t have a qualifying offer hanging over his head.
  • While the Kimbrel scenario may not be all that realistic for Twins fans, Minnesota is still looking to add a reliever, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Right-hander Ryan Madson is among the players Minnesota is considering as the team looks to further deepen its ’pen, Heyman notes. Madson logged 52 2/3 innings with 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate in 2018 — solid secondary numbers that generally look more appealing than his 5.47 ERA. Beyond that, Madson’s velocity actually improved over its 2017 levels, as he averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer and 95.4 mph on his sinker, per Statcast. Madson also posted a 13.9 percent swinging-strike rate that was his best since returning from a three-year injury absence in 2015. The 38-year-old was used heavily in the postseason by the Dodgers and looked to wear down in the World Series after strong showings in the NLDS and NLCS. However, he posted an intriguing 31-to-5 K/BB ratio from the All-Star break through the completion of the World Series and figures to come at an affordable rate.
  • Meanwhile, Wolfson tweets that the Twins have both Madson and righty Bud Norris on their radar. However, he notes that the Twins have also been hoping to add relievers on minor league contracts, and it doesn’t seem likely that either Madson or Norris would be amenable to such a deal at this juncture. Norris worked to a 3.59 ERA 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate in 57 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Bleier, Gurriel, Rays

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The Red Sox have been surprisingly silent on the bullpen market this winter despite the fact that Joe Kelly has left for the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned — seemingly likely to land with another organization as well, based on comments from Boston president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), however, that the Sox are confident in a number of internal options. Recent draftees Travis Lakins (sixth round, 2015) and Durbin Feltman (third round, 2018) could both emerge at the MLB level in 2019, while many in the Red Sox’ analytics department are intrigued by trade pickup Colten Brewer (whom the Sox tried to acquire last summer as well, Olney notes). Tyler Thornburg represents a notable bounceback option, as well. It’s nonetheless jarring to see the Sox take a passive approach to rounding out the ’pen on the heels of a World Series championship. Perhaps there’s yet another move in store with several relievers still available (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), but it seems likely that the Boston ’pen will have to prove its share of naysayers wrong in 2019.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Orioles southpaw Richard Bleier tells Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com that he believes he’ll be ready to roll for the start of the 2019 season. That’s great news for the O’s, as Bleier had been a revelatory hurler before suffering a major injury to his lat. Already 31 years of age, Bleier certainly qualifies as a late bloomer. He’s also an outlier, having now made it through 119 MLB innings with a sub-2.00 ERA despite averaging just 4.1 strikeouts per nine. A big 63.3% groundball rate and low 1.6 BB/9 walk rate go a long way toward explaining the results. Before he can get back to disproving those who question the sustainability of that success, Bleier will need to show he’s back to full health. For the O’s, it would help quite a bit if he can do so. After all, Bleier could be quite a nice trade asset this summer or in the winter to come, especially since he’s still shy of reaching arbitration eligibility.
  • The Blue Jays’ signing of Freddy Galvis this week was tied to the club’s uncertainty about the glovework of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. As Davidi explores at length, the Jays are wary of poor infield defense at a time when they’re developing numerous young pitchers and when rotation holdovers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are heavy ground-ball pitchers. Gurriel has more offensive upside than Galvis but could be squeezed for playing time with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Drury and Devon Travis all still factoring into the infield mix. There have been suggestions that Gurriel could land in the outfield eventually, but as Davidi outlines, that already crowded mix is further muddied with the now-out-of-options Dalton Pompey surprisingly still on the roster. It’s a comprehensive look at a crowded roster, though surely injuries and Spring Training roster moves could eventually impact how things play out. It’s also worth noting that Gurriel still has a minor league option remaining.
  • Juan Toribio of MLB.com tackles a number of questions on the Rays’ roster in his latest Inbox column, highlighting several battles for Opening Day roster spots while also writing that the Rays look unlikely to add another free-agent reliever this offseason. That, he notes, could open the door for Triple-A standout Colin Poche to crack the big league roster either out of camp or early in the season. The Rays, as Toribio notes, are rife with infield depth both on the 25-man roster and in the upper minors but are also cognizant that their projected group of 2019 infielders is lacking experience. So while players such as Christian Arroyo and Kean Wong don’t have clear paths to the Majors at the moment, Tampa Bay is likely to hang onto its depth. Arroyo, once a top prospect with the Giants and the key player received in last winter’s Evan Longoria trade, struggled through a lost season in 2018 and still has a minor league option remaining.

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