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Marlins To Sign Hector Noesi

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The Marlins have inked a deal with righty Hector Noesi, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. It’s not clear whether the minor-league accord includes a spring invite, but Noesi can earn $800K if he cracks the MLB roster.

It has been some time since Noesi, who’ll soon turn 32, has appeared at the game’s highest level. He threw nearly four hundred innings over a five-year span from 2011 to 2015, pitching to a 5.30 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

In the interim, Noesi has plied his trade abroad. He carried an excellent 3.44 ERA over 408 1/3 innings in his first two seasons in the hitter-friendly KBO, though he slipped to a 4.60 ERA in 174 frames last year. Most recently, Noesi has made five strong starts in the Dominican Winter League.

Rays To Sign Luis Santos

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The Rays have a minor-league deal with righty Luis Santos, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). It seems he’ll receive an invitation to MLB camp.

Soon to turn 28, Santos has thrown 36 2/3 major league innings over the past two seasons. He has allowed 21 earned runs in that span, with eight home runs putting a big dent in the bottom line. Santos does carry a solid combination of forty strikeouts against 14 walks in his still-nascent MLB career.

Formerly a starter, Santos worked almost exclusively in a relief capacity in 2018 in both the majors and minors. In 42 2/3 frames spread over twenty appearances for Triple-A Buffalo, Santos pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.

The multi-inning capabilities are surely of interest to the Rays. Beyond that, Santos has also shown some interesting skills. He carries a 14.2% swinging-strike rate during his time in the majors and last year averaged over 94 mph with his fastball.

Nationals To Sign Vidal Nuno

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The Nationals have agreed to a minor-league deal with southpaw Vidal Nuno, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB Spring Training as well as opt-out opportunities if he doesn’t earn a roster spot. Nuno would earn at a $1.3MM rate in the big leagues.

Nuno, 31, turned in a sparkling 1.64 ERA in 33 frames last year for the Rays. His underlying peripherals, however, were not quite so promising as the bottom-line results would otherwise suggest. Nuno was helped along by a .216 batting average on balls in play and 100% strand rate.

Teams clearly do not anticipate that Nuno will be capable of replicating his 2018 output; otherwise, he’d have been claimed when he was outrighted after the end of the season or would have commanded a MLB deal in free agency. Still, he seems to be a worthwhile depth piece, having compiled a 4.06 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over nearly four hundred career frames at the game’s highest level.

For the Nats, Nuno could represent both rotation and left-handed relief depth. He took ten starts at Triple-A last year but has mostly worked out of the pen in recent major league campaigns. Historically, Nuno has found much greater success against same-handed hitters, so he could compete for a LOOGY job in camp.

Yankees Close To Dealing Sonny Gray

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5:13pm: “A few teams” remain in talks with the Yanks, per Jack Curry of  the YES Network (via Twitter).

3:49pm: The Athletics and Padres are involved, while the Reds do not appear to be, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

Heyman hears that the Giants have entered the picture (Twitter link). Contrary to Martino, he also suggests that the organizations previously rumored to have interest have dropped back — including the A’s and Pads as well as all of the other ballclubs listed below.

3:11pm: David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that any trade of Gray won’t include the Braves. There have been no recent discussions between New York and Atlanta, per O’Brien.

1:51pm: Heyman now tweets that the Yankees are “close” to trading Gray. He adds that New York is receiving interest in right-handed relievers Jonathan Holder and Tommy Kahnle, as well.

1:45pm: The Yankees, who reportedly reached an agreement with Adam Ottavino this afternoon, are “working hard” on a trade of right-hander Sonny Gray, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The team’s effort “appears to be getting more serious,” Heyman writes, noting that previous suitors for Gray have included the Reds, Giants, Brewers, Padres, Athletics, Braves and Mariners. It’s not clear that any of those clubs are at the forefront of New York’s current efforts to move Gray, though.

Gray and the Yankees agreed to a $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season recently. While GM Brian Cashman had previously suggested that the Yanks could hold Gray into the 2019 season despite voicing a preference to find a change of scenery for Gray, that possibility became less likely when CC Sabathia was cleared to resume baseball activities following a December angioplasty procedure. With Sabathia back on track for the ’19 season, Gray once again became a more superfluous piece for the Yanks.

A change of scenery for Gray, 29, only makes sense after he struggled profusely with the Yankees in 2018 — particularly when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray posted a ghastly 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 compared to a 3.17 ERA on the road, and while there’s surely more at play in those splits than the surface-level numbers exhibit, the contrast between the two numbers is unequivocally jarring.

Teams interested in Gray are undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that his velocity remained consistent with its previous levels (93.8 mph average fastball), that his swinging-strike rate remained north of 10 percent and that his ground-ball tendencies (50 percent) remained well above league average. Gray actually allowed home runs at his lowest rate since 2015, as well (0.97 HR/9; 13.3% HR/FB) despite pitching more than 40 percent of his innings at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The righty isn’t far removed from one of the American League’s better arms — he was an in-demand trade commodity at the 2017 deadline when the Yankees acquired him — and he entered the 2018 season with a lifetime 3.45 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 770 1/3 innings. Prior to 2018, he’d only had one season with an ERA higher than 3.55 — an injury-marred 2017 season — and had even finished third in 2015 American League Cy Young voting. While Gray surely has a long way to go to get back to that level, he’s a quality buy-low option whose $7.5MM salary should be affordable for just about any team in need of pitching help.

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Land Sonny Gray?

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Often, when reports emerge that a particular player is about to be traded, it isn’t long thereafter that the landing spot is reported. Today, there’s indication that the Yankees are closing in on a deal involving righty Sonny Gray, but it’s still not yet clear where he could be heading. That leaves an opening to do a quick poll to get the final predictions of MLBTR’s readers.

Gray, 29, could fit with quite a few organizations, even after a less-than-inspiring 2018 campaign. He’s an accomplished hurler who is slated to earn a rather reasonable $7.5MM for the coming season — a manageable rate of pay even if he’s not able to get back to producing high-end results.

With Gray having been marketed so heavily all winter long, the list of interested teams is by now well-known, though surely others could yet also be involved. In my chat today, I was asked about the possibility of him landing with at least half of the teams in baseball. Rather than trying to pick a narrower list for this poll, then, I’m throwing them all out there for you to sort through.

Where’ll Gray end up? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

Sonny Gray Will Likely Be Traded To ...
Padres 17.52% (4,579 votes)
Athletics 10.73% (2,804 votes)
Giants 10.30% (2,693 votes)
Reds 10.06% (2,630 votes)
Brewers 7.33% (1,916 votes)
Braves 5.34% (1,396 votes)
Angels 3.51% (917 votes)
He won't be traded 2.88% (753 votes)
Pirates 2.68% (701 votes)
Cardinals 2.66% (696 votes)
Mariners 2.52% (658 votes)
Dodgers 2.37% (620 votes)
Twins 2.33% (608 votes)
Astros 2.00% (524 votes)
Cubs 2.00% (522 votes)
White Sox 1.96% (512 votes)
Phillies 1.88% (491 votes)
Blue Jays 1.77% (464 votes)
Mets 1.65% (432 votes)
Rangers 1.36% (356 votes)
Red Sox 1.17% (307 votes)
Nationals 0.96% (251 votes)
Orioles 0.95% (248 votes)
Tigers 0.81% (212 votes)
Indians 0.75% (195 votes)
Royals 0.63% (164 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.57% (149 votes)
Rays 0.50% (131 votes)
Marlins 0.45% (118 votes)
Rockies 0.37% (96 votes)
Total Votes: 26,143

Cubs Owner Discusses Lack Of Offseason Activity

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Cubs owner Tom Ricketts went on the Mully & Haugh Show on 670 The Score this morning, making an attempt to defend the Cubs’ quiet offseason.  (Hat tip to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, who wrote an article here).

Ricketts began, “First of all, we have spent money this offseason. We signed Cole Hamels, and we picked up Descalso, and I’m sure Theo’s got a few moves left in him.”  We’ll hit pause there to note that to allow for Hamels’ $20MM option to be picked up, the Cubs had to ship Drew Smyly and his $7MM salary to the Rangers.  That series of moves suggested that the Cubs felt they had to make a tradeoff to retain Hamels, compromising their rotation depth but saving money.  Beyond that, Descalso was inked to a two-year, $5MM deal, after Tommy La Stella and his (eventual) $1.35MM salary was dealt to the Angels.  So, the Hamels and Descalso moves added $13.15MM to the Cubs’ payroll.

Ricketts continued, “But frankly, we have one of the largest budgets in all of baseball. We put that to work, we’ve definitely signed a lot of players over the years. We have a team that we like. We have a team that we think is going to go a long way. We have a team that won 95 games last year without a lot of help from some of the guys we picked up last offseason. And all the different things that we fought through last year – the injuries, everyone’s having kind of down years, some of the off-field distractions…we like our club.  And we’re among the very top spenders. So, I just think all that stuff’s kind of misguided.”

Ricketts had two refrains in this interview: we are already spending a lot of money on players, and we have a great team already.

Ricketts said that despite having unique stadium and tax expenses that other teams do not have, the Cubs are one of the “top few spenders” in baseball.  He suggested the club could never spend at the level of the Yankees or Dodgers, implying the Cubs sit third behind them in payroll.  Looking at 2018 end of season luxury tax payrolls from the Associated Press, the Cubs ranked fifth behind the Red Sox, Nationals, Giants, and Dodgers.  Why the Cubs cannot spend like the Red Sox is unclear.  Perhaps the problem is that the Cubs had for the most part set expectations of heavy offseason spending:

So the Cubs signed a $126MM+ player in three of the last four winters.  It’s not that they haven’t spent money, it’s just that at this point in their competitive window, they’ve chosen an odd winter to stop spending.  The Cubs’ brief playoff appearance this year, Theo Epstein’s “our offense broke” comment the following day, and the once-a-decade availability of free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado led most fans to think the team would be firmly in the mix for a major offensive upgrade, particularly Harper.  Instead, Ricketts suggested the team had little room for improvement, saying, “The fact is we look at our lineup, and you look around the horn and who would you switch out?”

Though this was intended as a rhetorical question, it’s one that has many good answers.  FanGraphs projects the 2019 Cubs at 87 wins, with the Cardinals coming in at 86 after the addition of Paul Goldschmidt.  There’s also the Brewers, who have handily beaten projections over the last few years and won 96 games in 2018.  I’ll take the over on FanGraphs’ 79 win projection for Milwaukee, while the Reds and Pirates also land in that 79-80 projection range.  All five NL Central teams should be competitive.  The Cubs hardly have the division locked down, so who would you switch out?

The Cubs were expected to move on from Addison Russell after his domestic violence suspension came down and further details emerged, but he remains penciled in at shortstop after tallying 2.9 WAR over the last two seasons combined.  Their outfield consists of Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist – hardly a crew that should block Harper or even Andrew McCutchen.  The bullpen has glaring holes, with closer Brandon Morrow starting the season on the DL and the Cubs choosing not to bring Jesse Chavez back.  The Cubs are looking at Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek, Mike Montgomery, Brandon Kintzler, and Brian Duensing in the pen, with the expectation being that Epstein will continue to sit out the bidding for top free agents.  Craig Kimbrel remains on the market, while Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly, David Robertson, Kelvin Herrera, and Joakim Soria are off the board.

Though Ricketts has typically participated in a fan Q&A at the annual Cubs Convention, he won’t be doing so at the event this weekend.  He laughingly cited having the “lowest-rated panel” as the justification, but the cancellation of the panel coinciding with the club’s quiet offseason is a bad look for the team.  Fan frustration has reached a boiling point this winter, and that’s why the owner should be accountable.  While Ricketts noted that the panel could be brought back next year if people want it, why not just reverse course this year and field fan questions?

With the Cubs’ core of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez in place for only three more years, Ricketts has decided to sit out the 2018-19 offseason.  Ricketts asked fans to withhold judgment on the choice, saying this morning, “We’re going to be great, and I think people people should judge us by what happens during the season, not what happens in December.”

NL West Notes: Arenado, Rockies, Flores, D-backs, Giants

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Rockies GM Jeff Bridich largely declined an opportunity to discuss the state of the team’s contract talks with star third baseman Nolan Arenado, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes. Bridich says the club is content to “keep things under wraps, under our hat for now” as it continues to try to work out a 2019 salary — and, perhaps, a long-term deal — with the club’s top player. The general manager did say that the Rox will not “set any deadlines or ultimatums,” though that comment may relate more to the still-unresolved arbitration case than extension talks. Arenado and the team still need to bridge a $6MM gap to stave off a hearing, as he filed at $30MM against the team’s $24MM submission. It’s still anyone’s guess whether there’ll be any real traction in discussions on a lengthier accord, but it’ll unquestionably cost a pretty penny to get the 27-year-old to forego a chance at testing the open market next winter.

Here’s more out of Denver and the NL West…

  • Also from Harding’s piece, Bridich stated that the Rockies “haven’t been overly aggressive” in the outfield market. Fans hoping for a reunion with Matt Holliday will be disheartened to see that the GM characterized the franchise icon as a tougher fit on the current roster than he was when he was signed late in the 2018 season and enjoyed a brief comeback tour. Presently, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl look like locks for regular outfield work. Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia and Noel Cuevas will also slot in around the outfield, though Cuevas has options remaining, so it seems conceivable that the Rox could make a move if a palatable bargain presents itself.
  • There are “indications” that the Diamondbacks plan to utilize newly signed Wilmer Flores as their second baseman in 2019, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Doing so would allow them to shift Ketel Marte to the outfield as their new primary center fielder. It’d be an unfamiliar position for Marte, but the move is something that’s been discussed for some time now. (The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan noted as much all the way back in October). As Piecoro notes, the D-backs’ defensive alignment figures to look quite a bit different; Jake Lamb is slated to move across the diamond to first base following the trade of Paul Goldschmidt, with Eduardo Escobar slotting in as the primary third baseman. Nick Ahmed (shortstop), Flores (second base) and Marte (center field) could line up on the middle of the diamond, with David Peralta and Steven Souza Jr. flanking Marte in center.
  • The Giants may use the “opener” strategy at times in 2019 but won’t be among the league’s most aggressive teams with it, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Madison Bumgarner, Derek Holland and Jeff Samardzija will all be treated as traditional starters, though Schulman notes that president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has recently expressed a desire to manage the workloads of younger arms like Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez “for their future and for ours.” Schulman’s column explores multiple avenues to achieving that goal and features multiple quotes from Zaidi and skipper Bruce Bochy on the pitching staff that Giants fans will surely want to check out in full. Schulman also reiterates that it’s still possible the Giants could explore trades of either Will Smith or Tony Watson as they seek additional rotation and outfield options. Both lefty relievers can become free agents next offseason.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/17/19

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We’ll track the latest minor moves throughout the league here…

  • Outfielder Charlie Tilson cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the White Sox and has been sent outright to Triple-A Charlotte, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Sun Times). Chicago will now be able to hang onto the 26-year-old speedster without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him. Tilson suffered a torn hamstring in his MLB debut with the South Siders back in ’16 and saw his 2017 season wiped out by a stress reaction in his ankle. He returned to hit .264 with a solid .331 OBP in 121 plate appearances with the White Sox last season but slugged just .292. Lack of power isn’t new for Tilson, who has batted .266/.321/.356 in just shy of 700 Triple-A plate appearances. Tilson now finds himself a ways down the depth chart in Chicago and will need a strong showing in 2019 to move back up the organizational ladder (or to pique the interest of another team).

Angels Notes: Payroll, Trout, Stadium

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In the course of a lengthy discussion of Mike Trout’s status with the Angels, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (subscription link) drops a note regarding the team’s immediate payroll situation. The Halos, he says, “could top” last year’s team-record payroll, which checked in right around $165MM for the third-straight campaign. Whether that suggests there’s significant room to add depends upon how far past the prior line the team is willing to go; at the moment, the club already projects to have over $162MM in commitments on its books for the present season. With some creativity, though, the team could perhaps still pursue a significant addition this winter — especially if it is willing to allocate some of its relatively clean post-2020 payroll space. The club has added over $27MM in 2019 payroll so far this winter, but it has done so without adding a dime to its future balance sheets.

  • Regarding Trout, the above-linked post covers a fair bit of ground on the broader landscape of large contracts, though it largely (and understandably) leaves unanswered the ultimate question: how much money would it take to keep Trout from testing the open market? He’s far and away the best player in baseball — you’ll need to rub your eyes to make sure you’re reading this leaderboard properly — so much so that any other contract comps feel all but silly to make. Still, former Marlins president David Samson, whose quotes appear liberally throughout the post, claims that even Trout isn’t worth $40MM annually. Of course, Samson also advocates some other dubious positions, such as the notion that, as a front office leader, he would “have a very hard time telling my owner that Bryce Harper is worth $30 million a year when I can have Juan Soto making $555,000.” That sort of imbalance, of course, is baked right into the financial structure of the game. There’s no question any team would rather get more player for less money, but the cost to acquire freely available, established talent is vastly greater than that to retain pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players due only to the constraints on the earning power of less-experienced players. In any event, the potential future market value of Trout will be decided in an open bidding scenario, the outcome of which is impossible to predict at present. What seems clear, though, is that he will reasonably anticipate an opportunity to earn a monumental sum of money along with the chance to choose his destination; the Angels, it stands to reason, would need to offer an immense sum to keep him from checking out the alternatives.
  • So, how likely is an extension for Trout? Not very, says Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), who cites “whispers” that there’s not much hope of something coming together in the near-term. The club itself was unwilling to disclose the status of talks, if any, per Ardaya. According to Heyman, the Halos do still intend to try to get some chatter going. It’s hard, though, to see why Trout would have much reason to bite unless the organization offered something truly outrageous. He’s already guaranteed to have earned hundreds of millions of dollars over the course of his playing career, so it’s not as if he’s still looking for that first big contract. And with two years still to go before reaching the open market, Trout will presumably prefer to see how things develop on and off the field before committing — unless, perhaps, he’s so comfortable in Anaheim that he simply prefers to stay.
  • Quite a bit can change in two years’ time, after all. To take but one example, it’s tough to know how the Angels’ ballpark situation will look by that time. While the long-term plans remain up in the air, the club has now formally secured a one-year deal with the city of Anaheim to keep the club in Angels Stadium through the 2020 season, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. That’ll leave some added breathing room for both the club and the municipality to try to line up on a plan for the future. It seems the smart money remains on a local solution, though there’s no real indication at this point exactly how things will shake out. Major renovations and new construction both appear to be possible outcomes.

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