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White Sox’ Offer To Machado Reportedly Seven Years, $175 Million

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In the weeks since the White Sox made a reported seven-year offer to Machado, several followup reports have pegged the offer’s value as closer to $200MM than to $300MM. Now, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter) that the exact value of Chicago’s offer to Machado is $175MM over seven years — a $25MM annual value.

Postseason comments and villainy aside, it’s surprising that Machado’s market has been so limited to this juncture — particularly when the apparent top bid for his services as a 26-year-old isn’t all that much greater than the $144MM for which Eric Hosmer signed a year ago when at the age of 28. Frankly, the reported size of the offer makes it all the more stunning that the Yankees, on the heels of a 100-win season, are seemingly content to entrust the shortstop position to a Troy Tulowitzki reclamation project and the hope that Didi Gregorius can seamlessly bounce back from Tommy John surgery.

Looking around the league, it’s jarring  yet that teams who could fairly easily accommodate Machado haven’t made an effort to top that offer. The total value of Chicago’s offer to Machado checks in south of the Twins’ $184MM commitment to Joe Mauer, who retired earlier this winter. Minnesota doesn’t have a single dollar on the books beyond the 2019 campaign. The Brewers promised Ryan Braun a $21MM annual salary through his age-36 season nearly eight years ago, and Braun’s deal is off the books after the 2020 season. (Of course, if there’s one team that Machado have alienated more than any last October, it’s likely the Brewers.) The Angels and Mets are both at least $40MM south of the luxury tax threshold. Other clubs like the Cardinals, Cubs and Dodgers could potentially move some internal pieces around to fit Machado, and the Phillies are of course a clear fit that could handily top that sum. Even a team like the Padres, still emerging from a rebuild and more earnestly eyeing contention in 2020, could reasonably top an offer of that magnitude. (San Diego did, after all, sign a far lesser player in Hosmer a year ago.)

As Olney notes, the White Sox’ approach looks to be a mirror image of how the Red Sox pursued J.D. Martinez last winter. Boston made Martinez a $100MM offer early in the winter and waited him out, knowing that he lacked other suitors. That, of course, led Boston to a $110MM deal with Martinez that, while nine figures in value, proved to be one of the offseason’s best values. It’s more understandable, though,  that Martinez would have a limited market given the fact that most clubs viewed him as a pure designated hitter who could only handle sporadic outfield work.

Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comments and his deliberate kick of Jesus Aguilar at first base during the NLCS undoubtedly soured his image in the eyes of some owners (quite likely the aforementioned Brewers), but it’s nevertheless eye-popping that interest has been this tepid. While it’s true that many, if not most free-agent deals of seven-plus years in length end up as albatrosses in their latter years, Machado is four to five years younger than most free agents who signed those contracts and can reasonably be expected to provide more value as a result — particularly in the first half of a contract, which should be comprised entirely of prime-aged seasons.

Generally speaking, team-side aversion to those mega-contracts has clearly risen in recent years, though some clubs have moved toward shorter contracts at higher annual values in an effort to pay a higher premium for up-front value while mitigating some long-term downside. That, however, isn’t even the case in Chicago’s pursuit of Machado. The $25MM annual value of the proposal is hardly insignificant, but it’s also far from the top-of-the-scale annual rate one might expect for a player of Machado’s caliber and age.

Olney wonders whether the Yankees may ultimately circle back in if Machado’s market fails to progress — be it in the form of an increased offer from the Pale Hose or the emergence of another suitor. Given that the currently proposed deal would only run through Machado’s age-32 season, it’s hard to imagine that some team wouldn’t be willing to top it. Then again, few would’ve believed at the onset of free agency that Machado’s top offer in mid-January would be sitting at its current level.

Reds Sign Buddy Boshers, Felix Jorge

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The Reds have landed some additional pitching depth, signing lefty Buddy Boshers and righty Felix Jorge to minors deals, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (Twitter link). Both receive invitations to participate on the major-league side of spring camp.

Boshers, 30, has thrown 86 1/3 total MLB frames over parts of three seasons, working to a 4.59 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. The reliever did not receive any chances last year at the game’s highest level, but did turn in strong results at Triple-A. Over 57 total innings, he worked to a 3.32 ERA while racking up 9.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9.

As for Jorge, who turned 25 earlier this month, he has only received a brief taste of the majors. Unlike Boshers, most of his experience has come as a starting pitcher. In his most recent full season, 2017, Jorge turned in 149 innings of 3.68 ERA ball over stints at Double-A and Triple-A. He hasn’t shown much swing-and-miss ability in the upper minors, but has long been seen as a possible future MLB talent. Jorge ended up missing all of 2018 with a triceps injury, so he’ll first need to show he’s back at full health.

Braves Notes: Anthopoulos, Catching, Markakis, Relief Pitching, Pollock, Gray

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The Braves burst out of the gates this winter with the signings of Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann, but it has been crickets in Atlanta ever since. Here’s the latest …

  • Appearing at a team-sponsored event, GM Alex Anthopoulos discussed the status of the team’s roster-building efforts, as attendee and SB Nation contributor Stacy Marlow documented (Twitter links). Unsurprisingly, he did not divulge much in the way of specifics, but did provide some worthwhile snippets. Anthopoulos suggested the team was not heavily engaged on a “quiet” catching market, but would not rule out a move if the right opportunity comes along. He also seemingly reiterated a familiar stance on free agent outfielder Nick Markakis, indicating that the sides are still keeping an open line and weighing a reunion.
  • The Braves relief unit is certainly an area of potential improvement, but Anthopoulos’s comments suggest he has been lying in wait in hopes of securing good value in that area. He says that he only just spoke with a free agent reliever for the first time recently, indicating that the club has not been in on the quality pitchers that have already signed — many of them for fairly hefty salaries. Anthopoulos added that his expectation is that contract demands will begin to drop as Spring Training approaches. As we’ve often discussed over the past two years, teams are exhibiting much greater patience in free agency. Whether players and their agents can match that discipline and regain some leverage remains to be seen.
  • Most tantalizing, however, were Anthopoulos’s comments regarding one possible swap that’s evidently in the works. “There’s one trade concept right now that 70% of the deal we would agree to, the 30% is probably where we are going back and forth,” he said. “I don’t know if we are going to get it done, but the main piece of the deal I think we ultimately would be ok, it’s the add on.” Certainly, this not-yet-completed arrangement could involve any number of possible players, but it’s at least notable to learn that there could soon be some action.
  • One significant factor in the development of the offseason for the Braves, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), is the team’s hesitation to part with a draft selection to sign a player who declined a qualifying offer. There were six such players, only two of whom have signed to this point. Several are at least hypothetical targets for Atlanta, with the team reportedly showing real interest in outfielder A.J. Pollock. Rosenthal writes that the Braves are worried about the draft compensation that would be required to land Pollock — in their case, a second-round pick that’ll end up being sixty-something overall. Specifically, he says, the Braves “value the selection more than most clubs” because of the amateur talent penalties the team was slapped with in late 2017. If that is indeed a position the team itself holds, it’s somewhat less than compelling. The Braves certainly aren’t alone in valuing draft selections. Like their competitors, they must consider the future talent pipeline. It’s especially tough to see the club as uniquely situated when it still possesses a bounty of young talent at the major and minor league levels.
  • One possibility that’s seemingly still on the table for the Braves is a move to land Sonny Gray of the Yankees. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently discussed the concept, on the heels of a report from Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) that suggested the Braves could still be pursuer as the New York org again tries to make a deal on the veteran righty. As Burns explains, it’s not exactly a perfect fit, given Gray’s recent struggles and the Braves’ own needs, but it’s possible to imagine a match and the org has clearly shown prior interest. What’s most interesting, perhaps, is what a hypothetical acquisition of Gray would mean for Julio Teheran — another still-youthful, not-inexpensive starter who is looking to regain his prior form. Understandably, the Braves do not appear to view the rotation as the first order of business. The opening in right field no doubt remains the top priority, with some of the other possibilities discussed above arguably also rating as greater needs. All said, there’s still quite a bit of work to do this winter for Anthopoulos and co.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/15/19

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Here are Tuesday’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • Former Yankees top prospect Slade Heathcott is retiring from the game, Heathcott himself announced this week (hat tip: Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post). Now 28 years of age, Heathcott was the No. 29 selection in the 2009 draft and rated as the game’s No. 63 overall prospect, per Baseball America, in the 2012-13 offseason. However, after tearing through the lower ranks of the minor leagues, Heathcott began to struggle in Double-A and never found great success there or in Triple-A. He did have a strong 17-game cameo with the Yankees in 2015, during which he went 10-for-25 with a pair of homers and a pair of doubles. Heathcott split last season between the Athletics organization and the independent Sugar Land Skeeters, but he tweeted this week that he’s moving on from baseball in pursuit of his commercial pilot’s license.
  • Left-hander Tyler Matzek has agreed to a minor league contract with the Diamondbacks, tweets Robert Murray of The Athletic. Once the No. 11 overall pick in the draft  (2009, Rockies), Matzek was considered one of the game’s premier pitching prospects at one point but has persistently battled control problems throughout his pro career. Matzek has a 4.06 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 in 139 2/3 big league innings, but he’s averaged 6.5 walks per nine innings in parts of seven minor league seasons. Matzek hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2015 and spent the 2018 season with the Texas AirHogs of the independent American Association, where his control troubles continued. In 88 2/3 innings, Matzek logged a 5.89 ERA with 93 strikeouts but 66 walks and 10 hit batters.
  • The Twins have signed right-hander Jeff Ames to a minor league contract, MLBTR has learned. Ames, 28 at the end of the month, hasn’t cracked the big leagues and had mixed results between Double-A and Triple-A with the Brewers and Nats last season. He’s averaged better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched across the past two seasons but has also averaged more than five walks per nine in that time. Ames has a 4.50 ERA in 64 career innings at the Triple-A level and a 2.66 ERA in 125 frames of Double-A ball. Though he’s been an extreme fly-ball pitcher throughout his minor league career, Ames hasn’t struggled with home runs much outside of the 2018 campaign, when he surrendered six big flies in 38 total innings of relief (1.42 HR/9).

Angels Acquire John Curtiss, Designate Parker Bridwell

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The Angels announced Tuesday evening that they’ve acquired right-handed reliever John Curtiss from the Twins in exchange for minor league infielder Daniel Ozoria. Minnesota designated Curtiss for assignment yesterday upon signing former Angels righty Blake Parker. In order to open space on the roster for Curtiss, the Halos have designated righty Parker Bridwell for assignment.

A sixth-round pick by the Twins back in 2014, Curtiss was considered one of the organization’s more promising relief prospects for much of the past few seasons but hasn’t found big league success to date — albeit it in a tiny sample of work. Through 15 MLB frames, Curtiss has a 7.20 ERA but a more promising 17-to-6 K/BB ratio. Curtiss’ velocity dipped a bit in 2018, and he’s also posted an alarmingly low 18.6 percent ground-ball rate in the big leagues, though he’s previously posted considerably higher marks in the minors. He does bring a career 2.49 ERA at the Triple-A level to the table and has a pair of minor league options remaining, making him an intriguing ’pen option for the Angels.

Bridwell, 27, is only a season removed from 121 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with the 2017 Angels, though his secondary metrics never made that output appear sustainable. Bridwell averaged just 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched that season and stranded nearly 80 percent of the runners allowed — neither of which are conducive to long-term success. This past season, Bridwell pitched just 6 2/3 innings at the Major League level and clobbered for 13 runs on 14 hits — including five home runs. His Triple-A work wasn’t much better, as injuries limited him to 28 innings and he was barely able to keep his ERA south of 9.00 in that time. He’s out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will need to expose him to waivers once again before being able to send him to the minors. If he clears, he’ll be outrighted to Triple-A and presumably head to camp with the Angels as a non-roster invitee.

In Ozoria, the Twins will add an 18-year-old with minimal professional experience under his belt. The Dominincan-born infielder has experience at shortstop, second base and third base, but he’s yet to demonstrate any power with the Angels’ Rookie-level affiliates and struggled in particular across two levels in 2018. Ozoria has been playing against considerably older and more experienced competition to this point in his young career, but he’s mustered a meek .222/.293/.263 slash through 468 plate appearances. As one would expect for a player with that type of offensive output, Ozoria wasn’t considered among the Angels’ top prospects.

In some respects, the series of transactions can effectively be viewed as the Twins trading Curtiss in exchange for Parker and Ozoria, though they’ll have the benefit of controlling Parker at a lower rate than he’d have earned had Minnesota actually traded for him. The $1.8MM guarantee to which Parker agreed checked in south of the $3.1MM he’d been projected to earn in arbitration before being non-tendered by the Angels.

Curtis Granderson Intends To Play In 2019

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Curtis Granderson is hardly alone as a veteran free agent about whom there have been very few rumors this winter, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Granderson “fully intends to play another year.”

It’s been a year to the date since Granderson, 38 in March, agreed to a one-year contract with the Blue Jays that guaranteed him $5MM for the 2018 season. While he’s not the premier outfielder he once was, the Grandy Man remained a solid weapon against right-handed pitchers in 2018, hitting at a .247/.355/.444 clip in 375 plate appearances while holding the platoon advantage. Granderson connected on 13 homers, 20 doubles and a pair of triples in that time. Granderson’s defense has become a growing question mark, as he checked in at -5 Defensive Runs Saved, a -4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and -6 Outs Above Average in just 607 2/3 innings of corner outfield work last season between the Jays and the Brewers.

At this point of his career, Granderson’s on-base abilities and pop against right-handed opponents is his primary appeal to clubs, though the 15-year MLB veteran is also revered for his leadership and clubhouse presence as well. It’s unlikely that he’d command a raise from last year’s $5MM salary, making him a potential fit for any club looking to add some part-time outfield help to the mix between now and Opening Day.

Phillies “Expected” To Make Offer To Bryce Harper Soon

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4:45pm: Machado was the Phils’ primary target at one point, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), but it’s now much more even between him and Harper — if not slightly tilted in Harper’s favor. The Phillies, according to Heyman, are expected to make a formal offer to Harper in the near future.

Even if the Phillies won’t sign both Machado and Harper, Heyman notes that the goal is to sign one and then explore the market for other top free agents like Pollock, Keuchel and Kimbrel.  To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites team executives with the Phils in tweeting that organization has “visions” of signing the trio of Harper, Keuchel and Kimbrel. Paired with the prior acquisitions of Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, among others, that’d obviously be a seismic roster overhaul — the magnitude of which has been virtually unparalleled by any team in recent memory.

Of course, striving to add that trio and actually signing all three are two entirely separate animals, and it remains to be seen how feasible it is that the Phillies could win the bidding on three of the market’s top remaining free agents.

1:00pm: With a surprisingly small number of teams engaged on superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, it has at times seemed as if the big-budget Phillies are the favorites to land both players. Of course, even if the Philadelphia org is the likeliest single team to secure the services of each, that does not mean that it should be expected to come away with a pair of monster deals. Still, the possibility of hooking two free agent trophies has remained tantalizing to consider.

In the course of an interesting breakdown of the current situation, though, Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link) strikes a blow to the idea of the Phillies making successive strikes for both Harper and Machado. The Phils, he reports, have “made this much clear during negotiations: They will not sign both players.”

Certainly, there was never anything approaching an expectation that the Phillies would land both, or even that they’d seriously consider taking on two huge salaries. But it’s still a notable bit of seemingly hard information in a market situation that has remained exceedingly fluid, so far as is known publicly.

As Gelb explains, moreover, that stance is perhaps a notable aspect of the Phillies’ strategy in approaching both Harper and Machado. If the club’s money is only there for one of the two players, that conveys no small amount of leverage. Even if both players would rather end up elsewhere, they surely can’t ignore the presence of the Phils’ ample pocketbooks in navigating a surprisingly barren field of pursuers.

Perhaps the best case scenario for the Philadelphia club would be for one of these two players to jump on a big but palatable offer to join on. Of course, their respective representatives — Scott Boras, for Harper, and Dan Lozano, for Machado — have played this game before. We’ve seen teams emerge from the woodwork in the past to land players of this quality with surprisingly massive contracts. As Gelb rightly suggests, the presence (or absence) of “mystery teams” — whether as active bidders or as conjured by the agents — may go a long way toward influencing the course of negotiations.

Gelb says the Philly club intends to continue exercising confident patience in talks. The situation seems ripe for that approach, though surely the team would be better-situated if Harper or Machado had a stronger personal desire to end up in Philly. Really, there seem only to be a few risks here (beyond those that are inherent to such a major investment, which the team has already largely resolved in favor of action).

Those risks seem manageable. One is simply that the team loses out on the player it prefers to land, which would appear to be Machado. Given that the roster is susceptible of upgrades at both the corner outfield and third base, that’s not a major worry. Another is that it ends up having to pay a bit more by allowing the bidding to get going in earnest. Paying a premium now to forestall that possibility seems unwise, when the Phillies can surely afford to cover a higher price if that ends up being required. (This is the point of the post where I quote owner John Middleton on his willingness to spend “stupid money” this winter.)

Finally, the Phils could end up missing on both players. Gelb says the team is confident it will land one of the two, though surely there’s some possibility that they’ll both head elsewhere. That is perhaps the most concerning outcome, though even then there are alternatives. A.J. Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel are the leading three alternative remaining free agents; all would be hypothetical fits. And the trade market is all but sure to have some intriguing targets still available, even if it means coughing up more prospect capital than the team might wish. Losing the star power would hurt, but it seems reasonable to think the Phillies could still back-fill the missing talent.

All things considered, there are still many ways in which things could shake out — with both Harper and Machado landing in Philadelphia evidently not among them. Today’s news may not be earth-shattering, but it does cabin the universe of foreseeable outcomes. With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, in a slow-moving and increasingly tense market setting, it’s a signpost that’s at least worthy of keeping in mind.

Mets Sign Jed Lowrie

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In a fascinating development, the Mets have agreed to a two-year, $20MM deal with veteran infielder Jed Lowrie, as first reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). The Excel Sports Management client will receive a $5MM signing bonus along with salaries of $6MM and $9MM in the two years of the contract, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The deal also includes a half-million-dollar assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

The Mets previously acquired Robinson Cano to play second base, bumping interesting rookie Jeff McNeil off of the position and into a utility role. With Todd Frazier already in place at third base, J.D. Davis representing another recently acquired corner piece, and youngster Amed Rosario at short, it’s not immediately apparent where Lowrie will fit in.

It could be that future moves will help clarify the situation. Alternatively, the Mets might conceivably utilize Cano and/or Frazier at first base for at least part of the season. Davis and McNeil also represent options in the outfield. It could be, then, that the org will mix and match with the players it has assembled. Lowrie could certainly be moved around the diamond, with the team leaving it to skipper Mickey Callaway to allocate playing time and manage the competing priorities. Regardless, it’ll certainly be interesting to see how things materialize from here.

Lowrie, 34, has played almost exclusively at second base over the past three seasons with the A’s. Before that, however, he had lined up at short for the bulk of his career, while also logging over a thousand innings at the hot corner.

A former first-round draft pick, Lowrie never really stuck with his first team, the Red Sox, but established himself as a solid regular over the 2012-14 campaigns. Things turned south in the two years that followed, though, as Lowrie dealt with injury issues. His 2016 campaign ended with a pair of procedures, one on his foot and the other to address a deviated septum.

Ever since, Lowrie has been a (switch-)hitter reborn. He has posted consecutive 120 OPS+ campaigns, slashing a combined .272/.356/.448 with 37 home runs while compiling 151 walks to go with 228 strikeouts. Meanwhile, he has graded out as an average-to-very good defender, making Lowrie one of the game’s better second baggers for two years running.

Lowrie now becomes the latest player to join his former agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, in Queens. It’s a hefty price tag for a utility player, if that’s how Lowrie is utilized, though odds are the salary will also reflect extensive intended usage, even if it is at multiple positions. Aided by a market chock full of second base options, the Mets will get Lowrie for the same $10MM AAV that MLBTR predicted entering the winter, but for one less guaranteed season than we guessed would be required. It’s a nice price for a player of this quality, even if he is set to turn 35 years old just after the start of the season to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Doug Brocail “In Line” To Become Orioles Pitching Coach

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As they begin to build out a coaching staff, the Orioles appear to be nearing an agreement with Doug Brocail that would make him the team’s next pitching coach. Dan Connolly of The Athletic tweets that Brocail is “in line” to land in Baltimore.

If the sides do indeed put pen to paper, Brocail would take over for Roger McDowell, who departed along with veteran skipper Buck Showalter. The organizational change in Baltimore has been widespread, of course, with GM Mike Elias taking over baseball operations and going on to hire Brandon Hyde as the new manager.

Brocail, 51, was a first-round draft pick who pitched for 15 seasons in the majors, working to a cumulative 4.00 ERA in 880 innings. He just wrapped up a three-year run with the Rangers as their pitching coach. Previously, Brocail had a run of that same length in the same role with the Astros.

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