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Twins Notes: Sano, Colon, Perkins

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2017 at 8:08pm CDT

A players-only meeting in the aftermath of the trade deadline may have been the turning point in the Twins’ season, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes. A July slump led the club’s front office to deal Brandon Kintzler and Jaime Garcia at the deadline, leaving the clubhouse feeling “angry,” in the words of Byron Buxton. The meeting, led by Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier, lasted only 10-15 minutes and “I think the biggest thing in the meeting was to direct that anger or whatever feeling in a positive way,” Mauer said. The message certainly seemed to sink in, as the Twins turned things around in a big way and are now headed to the AL Wild Card game.

Here’s more from Target Field…

Miguel Sano is “still having discomfort” in his ailing left shin, manager Paul Molitor told Berardino and other reporters today. The slugger felt some soreness while lightly running out a grounder in the fifth inning today and didn’t return to the game. It is still very much up in the air as to whether or not Sano will be activated for the Wild Card game, as GM Thad Levine said that the club may use every minute until the 9am CT deadline on Tuesday to finalize their roster for the game against the Yankees. Sano has gone 1-for-8 since returning from the DL, and as Berardino notes, “has yet to hit a ball in the air.”
To honor a promise to his late mother, Bartolo Colon intends to pitch in 2018, the right-hander told reporters, including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and Michael Clair. “That’s the goal. That’s what I promised my old lady and that’s what I want to do,” Colon said. Colon earned the 240th victory of his 20-year career today, and he received a standing ovation from Twins fans when he was removed from the game in the seventh inning just in case this is the end of the road for the 44-year-old. After several effective years that belied his age, Colon finally showed signs of declining this season, posting a 6.48 ERA over 143 innings with the Twins and Braves.
Glen Perkins was emotional after what may have been his final big league game on Saturday, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes that Perkins has said that he’d consider retiring if he can’t return to the Twins next season. The St. Paul-born Perkins has spent his entire career with his hometown team, and only just returned to the mound in August after missing over 16 months due to shoulder surgery. The Twins will surely buy Perkins out for $700K rather than exercise their $6.5MM club option on his services for 2018, though there’s a chance he could return on a minor league contract.

First-Round Order For 2018 MLB Draft

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2017 at 6:52pm CDT

With the regular season now complete, we now know the order for the first round of the 2018 amateur draft. As always, the draft order is determined by the reverse order of the standings. When two or more teams share the same record, the team that had the lesser record in the 2016 season gets the higher pick in the 2018 draft.

This is why the Tigers will pick first overall in June, even though Detroit and San Francisco both finished with identical 64-98 records — the Tigers were 86-75 to the Giants’ 87-75 in 2016. This will be the second time in franchise history that Detroit has held the 1-1 selection. Back in 1997, Detroit took hard-throwing right-hander Matt Anderson first overall, a pick that ultimately proved to be a bust as Anderson struggled with injuries and control problems.

Here is the full draft order for all 30 teams…

1. Tigers (64-98)
2. Giants (64-98)
3. Phillies (66-96)
4. White Sox (67-95)
5. Reds (68-94)
6. Mets (70-92)
7. Padres (71-91)
8. Braves (72-90)
9. Athletics (75-87)
10. Pirates (75-87)
11. Orioles (75-87)
12. Blue Jays (76-86)
13. Marlins (77-85)
14. Mariners (78-84)
15. Rangers (78-84)
16. Rays (80-82)
17. Angels (80-82)
18. Royals (80-82)
19. Cardinals (83-79)
20. Twins (85-77)
21. Brewers (86-76)
22. Rockies (87-75)
23. Yankees (91-71)
24. Cubs (92-70)
25. Diamondbacks (93-69)
26. Red Sox (93-69)
27. Nationals (97-65)
28. Astros (101-61)
29. Indians (102-60)
30. Dodgers (104-58)

In past years, teams that signed a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would have to give up their first-round pick as compensation. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, however, first rounders are now automatically protected. The highest draft pick that a team could have to surrender in order to sign a QO free agent would be its second-highest selection (so either a first-round sandwich pick given as compensation for losing a QO free agent, or an actual second-rounder).

The full draft order won’t be known under all of the qualifying offer free agents have been signed. The 16 teams who qualify for revenue-sharing can obtain a compensatory draft pick after the first round if any of their free agents rejects the QO and then signs elsewhere for $50MM or more in guaranteed money. The Royals look like the most notable team to watch in this regard, with as many as three compensation picks potentially headed their way — Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas are all lined up to receive (and reject) qualifying offers and then get lucrative contracts on the open market.

NL Notes: Brewers, Scherzer, McCutchen, Cards, Dodgers

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 4:50pm CDT

The Brewers’ impending free agents – infielders Neil Walker and Eric Sogard, reliever Anthony Swarzak and starter Matt Garza – spoke about their futures Sunday with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and other reporters. Walker, the most noteworthy of the bunch, suggested that he’s keen on testing the open market in the offseason, though the August trade acquisitions did note that Milwaukee “is the type of team I’m going to be looking at. One that’s ready to win now and one that I can help.” Sogard and Swarzak made it clear they’d like to return to the Brewers, meanwhile, with the latter saying: “There’s still room to get better, and hopefully everybody in Brewers Nation gets to see a better Anthony Swarzak next year, because I want to stay here. I want to make another push here.”

While there’s clearly more baseball ahead of Walker, Sogard and Swarzak, the elder statesman of the group, Garza, admitted that his career could be at an end. The soon-to-be 34-year-old Garza acknowledged that he has struggled over the past couple seasons and said he’s “not expecting much” in the way of offers during the winter. Garza is wrapping up the four-year, $50MM contract he inked with the Brewers prior to the 2014 campaign. The righty made 96 appearances (93 starts) as a Brewer and logged a 4.65 ERA/4.38 FIP with the team.

Terry Collins To Step Down As Mets’ Manager, Move To Front Office

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 2:51pm CDT

Terry Collins will resign as the Mets’ manager after Sunday’s game and shift to the team’s front office, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (on Twitter).

Collins’ exit from the Mets’ dugout comes as no surprise, as the expectation was that the team would part with him on the heels of a tumultuous, injury-laden season. The 68-year-old has overseen a 70-91 club this season, one that entered 2017 with championship aspirations. Along the way, Collins reportedly lost the favor of some of the Mets’ front office decision makers and players.

While this will go down as a Murphy’s Law season for Collins and the Mets, his tenure as the team’s manager was successful overall. The Mets hired Collins and general manager Sandy Alderson after the 2010 season and have since posted a sub-.500 record (550-582), but they went to the playoffs twice in a row in 2015-16 for just the second time in franchise history. The high point of the Collins era was the Mets’ NL pennant-winning season in 2015, when the Royals upended them in five games to claim a World Series title.

Before taking the reins in New York, Collins managed the Astros from 1994-96 and the Angels between 1997-99. He mustered a plus-.500 record in Houston (224-197), the only place he achieved that feat. All told, Collins entered Sunday with a 995-1,016 mark across 13 seasons as a big league manager.

As is the case with Collins, Alderson is in a contract year. He’s expected to remain in his post, though, and will oversee the hiring of the Mets’ next manager. New York has already reached out to potential Collins replacements, and there have been reports linking the club to Rays third base coach Charlie Montoyo and former or current Mets Robin Ventura, Alex Cora, Kevin Long, Bob Geren, and Chip Hale.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Orioles, Donaldson, Molitor, Tigers

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 2:47pm CDT

Speaking with reporters Sunday, Orioles general manager Dan Duquette confirmed that the team will attempt to return to contention, not rebuild, in 2018. That means neither third baseman Manny Machado nor reliever Zach Britton will be on the trade market in the offseason. Both players are scheduled to become free agents after next season, but Duquette unsurprisingly revealed that the Orioles will consider trying to extend Machado over the winter. Given that Machado’s a year from potentially collecting a record contract on the open market, it’s difficult to imagine the 25-year-old re-signing in the coming months. From a team standpoint, the positive contributions of Machado and other position players largely went to waste this year on account of poor pitching. With that in mind, Duquette said that the Orioles will focus on improving their rotation in the offseason, adding that they’ll have the ability to upgrade via free agency (Twitter links via Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com and Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun).

Who Will Win The World Series?

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 1:01pm CDT

Aside from Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton’s pursuit of 60 home runs, the final day of Major League Baseball’s regular season won’t bring much drama. Colorado on Saturday became the last team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot and will be one of 10 clubs vying for World Series glory over the next month-plus. Here’s a rundown of the participants by league and seeding:

National League

1.) Los Angeles Dodgers (record: 103-58; most recent title: 1988): The Dodgers are loaded with stars and depth, which explains how they easily exceeded the 100-win mark despite enduring a 1-15 stretch from Aug. 26 through Sept. 11. They recovered from that nightmarish 16-game showing over the season’s final couple weeks and once again look formidable entering the postseason. While the Dodgers have scored the second-fewest runs of this year’s playoff teams, they’ve still managed to pace all NL clubs in position player fWAR. Plus, with a Clayton Kershaw-fronted rotation and a Kenley Jansen-led bullpen, their staff is atop the NL in pitching fWAR.

2.) Washington Nationals (record: 97-64; most recent title: never): The Nationals cruised to an NL East crown this year despite losing center fielder Adam Eaton in April and having to go without arguably their best player, right fielder Bryce Harper, from mid-August until late September. Harper suffered a knee injury that looked like a season-ender when it happened, and while the missed time derailed his MVP chances, he’s back to lead a lineup that also includes other standouts in Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman. On the pitching side, it seems ace and Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer avoided a serious hamstring injury during his start on Saturday. If that’s the case, Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez could be the premier starting trio in the playoffs. They’ll hand off to a bullpen that has featured offered plenty of shaky performances in 2017, though midseason additions Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler have helped stabilize the Nationals’ relief corps.

3.) Chicago Cubs (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2016): At this time a year ago, Chicago was putting the finishing touches on a 103-win regular season and preparing to enter the playoffs as the odds-on favorite. Ultimately, the Cubs lived up to the billing last fall and broke a 108-year title drought in an unforgettable World Series against the Indians. They haven’t been as sharp this year, owing in part to worse performances from their pitching and defense, but are still laden with talent. There’s no shortage of quality position players on hand, including reigning MVP Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, but the Cubs will need more from their staff – particularly Jake Arrieta, who’s dealing with a hamstring issue right now, and Jon Lester.

4.) Arizona Diamondbacks (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2001): One of this year’s surprise teams, the Diamondbacks rode an underrated starting staff and a top 10 offense (by runs scored) to a playoff berth. Starters Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin and Taijuan Walker have all turned in good to great seasons, which is why the D-backs’ starters lead the NL in fWAR. They also have a pair of offensive superstars in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though he had a horrid September that likely ruined his MVP chances, and outfielder J.D. Martinez. The latter has been a revelation since coming over from the Tigers in a July trade, having smashed 29 home runs in 61 games and batted .304/.369/.746 in 255 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a potential Achilles’ heel, no playoff entrant has a worse wRC+ (84) against left-handed pitchers than Arizona. That doesn’t seem to bode well for a team that will face the Dodgers, whose southpaws include Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson, if it wins the NL wild-card game.

5.) Colorado Rockies (record: 87-74; most recent title: never): Primarily on account of NL MVP candidates Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies are near the top of the league in runs scored, which is what you’d expect from a team that plays half its games at Coors Field. The Rockies managed to break a seven-year playoff skid this season largely because of an improved pitching staff that sits eighth in the majors in fWAR. Still, despite the presence of Jon Gray, their rotation doesn’t look particularly imposing relative to other playoff teams’ staffs. They do, however, feature a few highly capable relievers in Greg Holland, Chris Rusin, Pat Neshek and Jake McGee.

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American League

1.) Cleveland Indians (record: 101-60; most recent title: 1948): At 48-45, the reigning AL champions were a mere three games above .500 on July 18. Since then, they’ve run roughshod over the rest of the league en route to a 53-15 mark, including a historic 22-game winning streak from Aug. 22 to Sept. 14. The Indians lost a meaningless game to the White Sox on Saturday, but that was just their fourth defeat in the past 35 contests. Needless to say, they’re heading into the playoffs on a roll. As you’d expect, Cleveland’s roster is chock-full of excellence. MVP hopeful Jose Ramirez and all-world shortstop Francisco Lindor are at the helm of a talent-rich offense, one that supports what could be an all-time great pitching staff from top to bottom. Ace/Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, righty Carlos Carrasco and super reliever Andrew Miller, one of the faces of last year’s postseason, deservedly grab the most headlines, but good luck finding any weak links among the other pitchers the Tribe will use in the playoffs.

2.) Houston Astros (record: 100-61; most recent title: never): With a league-high 892 runs and a 121 wRC+, it’s a wonder how anyone gets the Astros out. Much of the damage has come from AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, the latter of whom missed significant time earlier this season, but ancillary pieces such as Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel have all been no worse than very good at the plate. And then there’s the one-two pitching punch of recently acquired ace Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, not to mention a deep starting staff/bullpen behind them. If there’s one big concern here, it’s that Houston may be the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

3.) Boston Red Sox (record: 93-68; most recent title: 2013): This year’s Red Sox have deviated from past Boston teams that used the likes of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez to pound opponents into submission. In fact, this is the first playoff-bound Red Sox club since 1995 to qualify for the postseason without scoring at least 800 runs. Nevertheless, they have several especially well-rounded position players (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi and the banged-up Dustin Pedroia, to name a few) who have done enough in the field to make Boston an elite defensive outfit. That defense supports the AL’s foremost southpaw, Chris Sale, and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. Boston is entering the playoffs with some concerns in its rotation, though, including the recent struggles of Sale and the yearlong issues 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has had. Fortunately for the Sox, starter Drew Pomeranz quelled some late-season concerns with an encouraging start against the Astros on Saturday.

4.) New York Yankees (record: 90-71; most recent title: 2009): Baby Bombers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez have more than lived up to the hype this season, combining for 85 home runs and 11.7 fWAR in 1,203 PAs. Fifty-one of those long balls have come from Judge, an OPS machine and an AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in whose 8.2 fWAR leads the majors. The rest of the Yankees’ offense isn’t exactly subpar, either, as a laundry list of their other hitters have notched above-average seasons at the plate. And New York’s pitching staff could be built for October, with an incredibly strong bullpen and a rotation that features perhaps the AL’s third-best starter, Luis Severino. One of the major questions regarding the Yankees is which versions of Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka will show up in the postseason – if the team gets by the wild-card game, that is. Gray allowed between four and six earned runs in three of five September starts, while Tanaka was a mixed bag throughout the regular season. He did conclude the slate with a seven-inning, 15-K shutout against the Blue Jays on Friday, though.

5.) Minnesota Twins (record: 84-77; most recent title: 1991): In terms of teams, there probably hasn’t been a better story during the regular season than the Twins, who were 103-game losers and owners of the majors’ worst record a year ago. Adding to the improbability of their Cinderella run to the playoffs, the Twins were sellers at this year’s trade deadline, when they dealt starter Jaime Garcia to their wild-card opponent, the Yankees, and Kintzler to the Nationals. However, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer & Co. were undeterred in the face of those deals and the late-summer absence of slugging third baseman Miguel Sano, who missed over a month with a left shin injury but just returned this week. Given its relatively underwhelming pitching staff, Minnesota is obviously a long shot to claim its first World Series in 26 years. For now, the Twins are focused on the Yankees, who have historically owned Minnesota in the playoffs. But New York’s past triumphs came during series. The wild-card round is a one-off, increasing the odds of an upset. The Twins’ No. 1 starter, Ervin Santana, allowed two or fewer runs in 20 of 33 starts during the regular season. If he’s that stingy against the Yankees on Tuesday – an admittedly tall order – an upset could be in the offing.

(Poll link for app users)

And now for the most important question (poll link for app users)…

Central Notes: Cain, Royals, Tribe, Cards, Tigers

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 11:23am CDT

The Royals will be reluctant to invest significant money in an outfielder who’s on the wrong side of 30 over the winter, which makes a potential Lorenzo Cain exit seem more likely, Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes. For his part, the 31-year-old Cain (32 next April) realizes his terrific tenure with the Royals could be on the verge of ending. “They all know where I stand as far as coming back to KC,” the impending free agent said. “They know I would love to come back here. I said it in the spring, and I’ll say it again now. But at the same time, everyone has to do what’s best for themselves. No one knows what’s going to happen.” Cain has been outstanding since debuting in earnest with the Royals in 2011, including this year (.301/.364/.442, 15 home runs, 26 stolen bases across 643 plate appearances), and was a key component of an AL pennant winner in 2014 and a World Series champion the next season.

MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 10:06am CDT

Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

Bradley Woodrum returned with a must-read update to his excellent, painstakingly researched February piece 2016, “Predicting Tommy John Surgeries.” As Bradley explains, Rangers left-hander Martin Perez should probably check it out. On the other hand, Bradley notes that things continue to look up for dominant Yankees rookie Chad Green.
Steve Adams sorted the starters and relievers of the upcoming free agent class by velocity, strikeouts, walks, groundball percentage and hard contact rate.
Steve also answered a reader’s question on whether the Mets should tender a contract to free-falling right-hander Matt Harvey in the offseason. On the heels of a terrible 2017, the former ace will head to arbitration for the third and final time over the winter.
MLBTR’s Three Needs series rolled along with entries on the Padres, Orioles and Angels.

CC Sabathia Plans To Pitch In 2018

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 8:20am CDT

Veteran left-hander CC Sabathia plans to continue his career in 2018, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 37-year-old impending free agent may have taken the mound as a Yankee for the last time on Saturday, when he tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings of four-hit, six-strikeout ball in a win over the Blue Jays.

Whether New York advances past Minnesota in Tuesday’s AL wild-card game could help determine if Sabathia will get the ball again as a Yankee. The potential Hall of Famer was instrumental in the team’s regular-season success, pitching to a 3.69 ERA over 148 2/3 innings. Although Sabathia didn’t post gaudy strikeout and walk numbers (7.26 K/9, 3.03 BB/9), he helped offset that by logging a groundball percentage of 49.9 and, according to FanGraphs, the majors’ sixth-best hard contact rate among starters with at least 140 frames.

While the Yankees and Sabathia may part ways in the offseason, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team re-sign the franchise icon – especially considering fellow starters Masahiro Tanaka and Jaime Garcia could hit the market. Formerly with the Indians and Brewers, the 2007 AL Cy Young winner joined the Yankees prior to the 2009 season on a seven-year, $161MM contract and has turned into one of the most successful starters in their storied history. He helped the Yankees to their most recent World Series title in 2009, the first of five straight 200-inning seasons with the club, and has recorded a 3.75 ERA and accounted for 30.5 fWAR/28.5 rWAR across 255 starts (1,657 2/3 frames) in the Bronx.

Sabathia endured a rough, injury-impacted stretch from 2013-15, a period in which his ERA ballooned to 4.81 in 69 starts, but has overcome knee issues to reemerge as a capable starter over the past couple years. The 6-foot-6, 300-pounder is finishing up the five-year, $142MM extension he signed in 2011, when the Yankees gave him a raise to prevent an opt-out. Sabathia’s next deal obviously won’t approach his expiring pact in length or value, but he clearly made a case for a solid short-term payday during the regular season. The only question is whether it’ll come from the Yankees or another team.

NL Notes: Nats, Scherzer, Cards, Nicasio, Phillies

By Connor Byrne | September 30, 2017 at 10:06pm CDT

Nationals ace and NL Cy Young front-runner Max Scherzer left his start in the fourth inning against the Pirates on Saturday with a right hamstring cramp, manager Dusty Baker announced. Baker added that Scherzer underwent a precautionary MRI, but the skipper didn’t seem overly concerned about the right-hander, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. A major injury to Scherzer right before the playoffs could be disastrous for the Nationals, who will match up with the Cubs in the NLDS. If healthy, Scherzer should take the ball for Game 1 on Oct. 6. The two-time Cy Young winner wrapped up his regular season with 3 1/3 scoreless, five-strikeout innings on Saturday, giving him a 2.51 ERA and 12.02 K/9 against 2.47 BB/9 across 200 2/3 frames.

More on Washington and a couple other NL franchises:

The Cardinals have discussed a new contract with impending free agent reliever Juan Nicasio, who made it clear Saturday that he’d like to re-sign with the club. “Try and make a good deal. I want to stay here,” Nicasio told his agent (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, on Twitter). Acquired in a trade with Philadelphia on Sept. 6, Nicasio has served as the Cardinals’ closer down the stretch and thrown 10 innings of two-run ball with the team. In 71 1/3 innings divided among Pittsburgh, Philly and St. Louis this season, the 31-year-old has put up a 2.61 ERA and logged 8.69 K/9 against 2.49 BB/9.
The Phillies’ decision to change managers could cost them promising hitting coach Matt Stairs, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. In Stairs’ first year on the job, the former slugger has won the favor of the Phillies’ hitters and played a key role in the development of some of their young players, details Zolecki. Thanks in part to Stairs, the Phillies’ offense has posted better numbers across the board than last year’s, including in the runs scored department (679 to 610). Stairs told Zolecki that he’d “love” to continue in Philly, but he realizes his fate rests with the team’s next manager.
On Saturday, the Nationals activated infielder Stephen Drew from the 60-day disabled list and moved reliever Shawn Kelley to the 60-day DL with bone chips in his right elbow. The move was made so Drew would be eligible for the postseason, though he’s unlikely to be ready for NLDS action, per Jamal Collier of MLB.com. An abdominal strain has shelved Drew since July 25, before which he slashed a disappointing .253/.302/.358 in 106 plate appearances. Kelley, who last pitched Sept. 22, also endured a poor regular season (7.27 ERA in 26 innings). The two-time Tommy John recipient is due a $5.5MM salary in 2018.

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