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MLBTR Originals

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Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

  • Before the playoffs began, I polled readers on who would win the National League, the American League and the World Series. The plurality of voters expect the Indians to topple the Dodgers in the Fall Classic. Both teams are on the right track so far, as they each lead their respective division series 2-0.
  • Sticking with the postseason theme, Jason Martinez, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd detailed how all 10 playoff teams constructed their rosters. Along with the aforementioned Dodgers and Indians, check out entries on the Astros, Nationals, Red Sox, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Rockies and Twins.
  • The Twins overcame a less-than-stellar rotation to earn a playoff trip, but their return to the postseason only lasted one game. With Minnesota’s season in the rearview, Kyle Downing asked readers which path the team will take over the winter to bolster its starting pitching. The plurality of voters expect the Twins’ biggest improvements in that area to come from within.
  • Kyle also wrote a piece focusing on Tigers third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos as a potential offseason trade candidate. Although the Tigers are in the very early stages of a rebuild, the plurality of voters believe Castellanos will stick with the club at least into next offseason.

NL East Notes: Braves, Nats, Harris, Jennings, Marlins

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Here’s the latest from around the NL East…

  • The Nationals granted the Braves permission to speak to Nats assistant GM Doug Harris and special assistant Dan Jennings about Atlanta’s general manager vacancy, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter link).  Earlier this week, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that Nats GM Mike Rizzo contacted Braves upper management to give Harris a recommendation.  Harris was originally hired as Washington’s farm director in 2010 and has since risen to the AGM and VP of player personnel roles, as well as overseeing the Nationals’ minor league system.  He has also worked with John Hart before, as Harris was a Rangers scout when Hart was Texas’ general manager.  Jennings, of course, is best known for his long stint with the Marlins, most notably as their general manager and then on-field manager.  In another tweet, O’Brien hears from the Braves that their GM search “will likely be slow developing,” which isn’t surprising given the abrupt nature of the team’s front office shakeup earlier this week.
  • The Marlins’ top trade chips are analyzed by former GMs Dan O’Dowd and Jim Bowden in a piece by the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson.  Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna have the most trade value, though the two ex-GMs disagree on Dee Gordon’s value.  Both would move Dan Straily if the Fish can get a good young arm in return, essentially reversing the deal that saw Miami acquire Straily from the Reds last winter for Luis Castillo.  Giancarlo Stanton is obviously a major asset, though his no-trade clause and huge contract greatly limits his list of possible suitors, and limits what the Marlins can reasonably expect back in return.  In general,
  • A trade of Jose Urena or Kyle Barraclough would be “highly unlikely,” Jackson reports, and J.T. Realmuto or Justin Bour would only be dealt if the Marlins could get multiple good prospects back in return.  In Bowden’s opinion, the Marlins “have to listen on anyone.  If you are challenged economically like they are, you are looking for controllable, inexpensive players that are not eligible for arbitration yet.”

West Notes: Athletics, Giants, Peacock, Hill, Rockies

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The Athletics have a history of adding veteran starters to eat innings and serve as mentors within otherwise young rotations, and the team will again be looking to add such a pitcher this winter, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes in a look at the starting situations on both Bay Area teams.  “You have to bring in the right guy in that situation.  Not just any veteran or experienced guy can come in and play that role, so we’ll certainly survey the market and be opportunistic,” Oakland GM David Forst said.  As for the Giants, they seem pretty set in the rotation, as they’re counting on better health and/or returns to form from Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore, with Ty Blach and Chris Stratton competing for the fifth starter’s job.

Here’s more from both the AL and NL West divisions….

  • Improved health, a lower arm slot and an altered slider all led to Brad Peacock’s breakout year, though as recently as this Spring Training, Peacock seemed a longshot to make the Astros roster or even stay in Major League Baseball, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes.  “We thought we were going to Japan, honestly,” said Peacock’s wife Stephanie.  Dan Straily’s emergence in 2016 made the Astros hesitant about giving up on another arm, however, and Peacock found a roster spot when Collin McHugh began the year on the DL.  The rest was history — over 132 innings as a starter and a reliever, Peacock posted a 3.00 ERA, 10.98 K/9 and 2.82 K/9 rate.  He’ll make his first postseason appearance today as Houston’s starter in Game 3 of the ALDS.
  • Rich Hill is no stranger to reinvention, and after the curveball that fueled his late-career revival began his fail him early this season, The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh illustrates how Hill moved away from his signature pitch.  Hill began to utilize his fastball to great success, what the southpaw’s heater lacks in speed (89mph), it makes up for with excellent movement. Cutting back on the curveball usage also may have helped Hill avoid the blister problems that plagued him in 2016.  The end result was another strong season for the Dodgers lefty, as Hill posted a 3.32 ERA with 11.01 K/9 over 135 2/3 innings.
  • The Rockies have almost $54MM in payroll coming off the books this winter in the form of Carlos Gonzalez’s salary and over $33MM in “dead money” paid to players no longer on the roster, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes.  Between that large sum and another $24MM being freed up by other impending free agents, Colorado has plenty of cash to spend this winter, though some of those funds could go towards re-signing some of those players, perhaps Greg Holland and Jonathan Lucroy.  Saunders also wonders if the Rockies could look into extensions for Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu (free agents after 2018) or Nolan Arenado (after 2019).

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Farrell, Orioles, Pitching, Rays

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It was on this day in 1956 that Don Larsen made baseball history by tossing a perfect game in Game Five of the World Series.  The right-hander had posted a 3.19 ERA over 276 2/3 IP for the Yankees in 1955-56, though he hadn’t yet fully established himself in the rotation, starting only 33 of his 57 appearances for the Bronx Bombers.  Larsen also started Game Two of the 1956 Series but lasted only 1 2/3 innings thanks to four unearned runs allowed, making his dominance over the Dodgers just three days later even more unexpected.  Larsen’s masterpiece was the only no-hit game in postseason history until the Phillies’ Roy Halladay tossed a no-no against the Reds in the 2010 NL Division Series.

Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • “There is considerable curiosity within the industry about” how the Red Sox will handle another potential early exit in the ALDS, ESPN’s Scott Lauber writes, with John Farrell’s job security being a major topic.  A managerial change might be popular with Boston fans, though Lauber points out that some of the team’s larger issues (such as the lack of power on the roster) aren’t Farrell’s fault.  Farrell has a World Series championship, three AL East titles and a 432-378 record in five years as the Red Sox manager, though his contract only runs through the end of the 2018 season.
  • With the Orioles looking for pitching help this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko lists Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner as likely targets given that the team has been interested in all three in the past.  Former Oriole Miguel Gonzalez is also a good bet, since Baltimore tried to re-acquire the right-hander in August before the Rangers outbid the O’s in trade talks with the White Sox.  Since the Orioles have a stated need for left-handed starters, Jorge De La Rosa could be another option since the O’s were also interested in his services a few years ago, though Kubatko notes that de la Rosa worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the Diamondbacks in 2017.
  • “It was just time” for the Rays to shake up their coaching staff, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, though this need manifested itself in a few different ways.  Pitching coach Jim Hickey, for instance, said he had a “difference of opinion” about the team’s plan to go to the bullpen earlier in the games.  Hickey already seemed likely to leave when his contract was up after the 2018 season, with an eye towards joining a more consistent contender.  The Mets and Cardinals have already been rumored to be after Hickey to fill their pitching coach vacancies this winter.  The Rays’ changes have resulted in just one coach (bullpen coach Stan Boroski) remaining from Joe Maddon’s staff, so manager Kevin Cash now has more of his own people in place.

Missouri Notes: Royals, Cardinals, Hosmer

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Here’s the latest baseball news from the Show Me State…

  • Of all the Royals’ big free agents this winter, Eric Hosmer seems to be the team’s top priority, and Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star looks at what would need to happen for the team to re-sign the star first baseman.  In short, Hosmer’s market would need to be much softer than expected, which would allow the Royals to stay in the bidding — the scenario would be akin to how K.C. was able to bring back another homegrown star in Alex Gordon two years ago.  Realistically, the Royals need both Hosmer to find a thin market and for him to be willing to accept a slight discount on his asking price, and “even internally, club officials acknowledge this is unlikely,” Mellinger writes.
  • Should Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all leave in free agency, the club “would effectively be admitting a rebuild” by having to rely on internal options or lower-tier free agents to fill the holes, Mellinger notes.  On the other hand, GM Dayton Moore “would never commit to a virtual tank” in the fashion of the Astros, Cubs, or White Sox.  Instead, Mellinger suggests that the Royals could try to stay competitive enough in 2018 to take advantage of a weakened AL Central, such as how the Twins gained a surprise wild card berth this season.
  • If the Royals are hoping for a cooler market for Hosmer, they could be helped by the fact that so many big-market teams are already set at first base, ESPN’s Buster Olney observes in his latest subscription-only column.  The Red Sox and Yankees could use upgrades at first but are both looking to get under the luxury tax threshold, while the Angels would probably only be in the Hosmer mix if Justin Upton opted out of his deal.  One intriguing scenario Olney floats (based on just his own speculation) is the Cardinals trading Matt Carpenter and signing Hosmer as the everyday first baseman.  This move would, on paper, address the Cards’ wish to be more athletic and better defensively, though it should be noted that the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 metrics have actually presented Hosmer as a below-average defender over the last two seasons.
  • “Whether it’s the bullpen or the lineup, the Cardinals stated goals for 2018 are fortify and simplify,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes in an overview of the team’s offseason plans.  The roster was often in flux last season thanks to injuries, some unexpected dropoffs in performance and some new faces earning increased playing time, so the Cardinals are planning on more lineup stability next year.  There hasn’t been any consideration given to a rebuild, as the Cards feel they have both the money and farm system depth to stay competitive while remaking the roster at the same time.
  • Clubhouse issues and a lack of fundamentals plagued the Cards all season, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argues that the team needs to re-commit to its Cardinal Way mantra.  Some players were annoyed by a “lackadaisical atmosphere” inside the clubhouse throughout the season, though a players-only dinner arranged by Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright in early August served as a good wakeup call for the team.

Quick Hits: Phils, Tigers, Judge, Rockies, D-backs

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Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond is drawing interest from two manager-needy teams, the Phillies and Tigers, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. Redmond isn’t far removed from managing the Marlins, who went 155-207 on his watch from 2013-15. The former big league catcher played with the Marlins from 1998-2004, giving him familiarity with Tigers general manager Al Avila. The executive was in Miami’s front office for a portion of Redmond’s tenure as a player there.

More from around baseball:

  • With the Indians and Yankees facing off in the American League Division Series, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com flashes back five years to a decision that has impacted both franchises. The Indians signed former Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher to a four-year, $56MM deal in December 2012, a move that didn’t pan out for Cleveland but did help lead to the Aaron Judge era in the Bronx. By letting Swisher walk in free agency, the Yankees earned a compensatory draft pick in 2013, the 32nd selection, with which they chose Judge. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland passed on Judge at No. 5 in the first round (the Indians grabbed a different now-Yankees outfielder in Clint Frazier, whom the Tribe traded in a 2016 deal for reliever Andrew Miller), though one member of the club’s scouting department was particularly enamored of the hulking slugger. “One of our scouts liked him over [No. 1 overall pick Mark] Appel, which is crazy to think about,” Indians president Chris Antonetti told Castrovince. “It’s not necessarily how we had him on our board, but one of our scouts felt strongly about it. There were some questions about his size, but he also did a lot of things really well, and he was renowned for having a great makeup.”
  • There haven’t been any contract discussions between the Rockies and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez since spring training, according to Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post. The Rockies offered CarGo an extension back then, but he turned it down and proceeded to endure the worst season of his career. The 31-year-old impending free agent batted an uncharacteristically poor .262/.339/.423 in 534 plate appearances, but he did fare much better after the All-Star break (.314/.390/.531 in 207 PAs).
  • The Diamondbacks won 93 games during the regular season and broke a five-year playoff drought, leading Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic to highlight some of the good work done by their past decision-makers. While first-year GM Mike Hazen is responsible for the J.D. Martinez, Ketel Marte, Daniel Descalso, Jeff Mathis, Taijuan Walker and Fernando Rodney acquisitions, among others, predecessors Josh Byrnes, Jerry Dipoto, Kevin Towers and Dave Stewart each have a hand in the current on-field product in Arizona – something Hazen realizes. “There are contributions all over the place,” he told Piecoro. “They should be proud of that, I think. We all know in the game things happen. Changes get made. For whatever reason, they get made. But it still doesn’t change the fact that there was good done, too.”

5 Key Stories: 9/30/17 – 10/6/17

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A recap of the top stories featured at MLBTR over the past week:

Chaos in Atlanta: A bombshell dropped Monday in Atlanta with the resignations of general manager John Coppolella, who stepped down after two years on the job, and special assistant Gordon Blakely. Coppolella and Blakeley were forced out amid an investigation from Major League Baseball into their international and domestic practices. The league’s investigation into Coppolella’s alleged violations on the international market is ongoing, and it could negate the Braves’ 2016 signing of high-end prospect Kevin Maitan. The 17-year-old Maitan will become a free agent again if MLB voids his contract with Atlanta, which inked the infielder to a $4.25MM bonus two summers ago. While they await word on Maitan’s future, the Braves are on the lookout for a new GM. President of baseball operations John Hart is filling that role for now.

Changes coming to Mets’ dugout: No one predicted Coppolella’s demise, but there was little doubt Terry Collins would be out as the NL East rival Mets’ manager after the season. The 68-year-old Collins ultimately stepped down on his own, shifting to the team’s front office after seven seasons as its skipper. The Collins-led Mets went 551-583 with two playoff berths, one of which ended with a five-game World Series loss to the Royals in 2015. Longtime pitching coach Dan Warthen is out, too, though he could join Collins in taking another job in the organization.

Security for other managers: Collins’ career as a manager is likely over, but former colleagues Brian Snitker (Braves) and Jeff Banister (Rangers) will continue in their current positions for at least a bit longer. The Braves’ front office is in flux, as mentioned, but there’s stability in the dugout with Snitker, who will be back next season after they exercised his 2018 option. Banister was already under contract for next year, but he’ll avoid lame-duck status – the Rangers picked up his 2019 option on Wednesday. Meanwhile, on the heels of a Cinderella season, the Twins are working to re-up Paul Molitor.

Derek Jeter in charge in Miami: Jeter and businessman Bruce Sherman agreed to purchase the Marlins for $1.2 billion in mid-August. Nearly two months later, they officially took the keys from the team’s previous owner, the beleaguered Jeffrey Loria. In the introductory press conference Jeter and Sherman held Tuesday, the former Yankees shortstop and future Hall of Famer acknowledged a need “to rebuild the organization,” adding that some “unpopular decisions” could be in the offing.

Rangers finally release Prince Fielder: The former first baseman announced in August 2016 that he wouldn’t play again on account of neck issues, but he didn’t officially retire because doing so would have cost him the remainder of his contract. As a result, the Rangers kept Fielder on their 40-man roster until Wednesday, when they released the 33-year-old after negotiating a deal with the insurer paying part of his salary. Fielder is owed $24MM per annum through 2020 on the nine-year, $214MM contract he signed with the Tigers in 2012.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Cards, Marlins, Jays, Mariners, Pirates, ChiSox

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

Cafardo’s Latest: J.D., Red Sox, Mariners, Stanton, Cubs, Braves

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It “would appear” the Red Sox will be involved in the chase for Diamondbacks outfielder J.D. Martinez if he hits free agency in the offseason, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. As Cafardo points out, there’s a connection between Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski and Martinez, whom the former plucked off the scrapheap when he was Detroit’s general manager in 2014. Now one of the premier hitters in the game, Martinez would provide some much-needed punch to a Red Sox club that’s lacking in the power department, though it’s unclear where he’d play in Boston. On paper, the Red Sox look set in the outfield for the next few years with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. in the fold.

More rumblings from Cafardo:

  • Indians first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana is another free agent-to-be who’s likely to land on the Red Sox’s radar, per Cafardo, who also names the Mariners as a probable suitor. Considering their positions, the switch-hitting Santana would seem to be a more natural fit than Martinez for Boston, which has gotten subpar production at first from impending free agent Mitch Moreland this year. Meanwhile, Mariners first basemen ranked last in the majors in fWAR (minus-0.7) during the regular season. Their top option, Yonder Alonso, could depart in free agency, which may lead to a Santana pursuit.
  • The Cubs could be a team to watch if the Marlins shop right fielder Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason, Cafardo suggests. It’s unclear whether the Cubs would have interest in the potential NL MVP, who’s due $295MM through 2028 (if he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020), but they have plenty of players the Marlins “would love” to acquire, notes Cafardo.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore will only head to Atlanta if the Braves give him complete control, according to Cafardo. That jibes with a previous report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and suggests that president John Hart would have to exit for a Moore-Braves union to come to fruition. Hart isn’t planning on leaving, however, Cafardo reports. Two members of the Nationals’ front office – assistant GM Doug Harris and the previously reported Dan Jennings – as well as ex-Red Sox GM Ben Cherington (now in Toronto) are on Hart’s radar as he seeks a replacement for John Coppolella, Cafardo relays.
  • Yomiuri Giants right-hander Miles Mikolas is eyeing a return to the majors, and if he does opt out of his contract in Japan, it appears he’ll draw plenty of big league interest. Fourteen major league teams scouted Mikolas’ most recent starts, and there’s a belief among some that he could be a capable mid-rotation starter if he comes back, according to Cafardo. Mikolas, 29, logged 37 appearances (10 starts) with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 and recorded a 5.32 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He has been stellar with Yomiuri since 2015, though, with a 2.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 across 62 starts.
  • The Tigers decided before the season ended to part with manager Brad Ausmus, but he told Cafardo that he wouldn’t have returned “even if they had offered me a three-year deal.” Ausmus didn’t believe he was the right match for a Detroit team in the initial stages of a rebuild. On potentially managing someplace else, he said, “I’d have to study the situation and see if it was the right fit for me.”

Poll: How Will The Twins Address Their Rotation Issues?

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After quickly shifting from buyers to sellers at the 2017 trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins’ offense went on an absolute tear during the second half, thanks in part to blazing hot streaks from Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Brian Dozier. The lineup’s offensive storm resulted in a whopping 412 runs after the All-Star break, surpassing even the Indians for most in the American League. They surged up the standings to claim the AL’s second wild card spot, but fell to the New York Yankees in the one-game playoff after starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios gave up a combined seven runs across five innings.

The heartbreaking loss alluded to an overarching theme of the Twins’ 2017 season: the woes of subpar performances from starting pitchers. While Santana and Berrios were actually the team’s most respectable performers during the season, the rotation performed miserably on the whole. Sixteen different pitchers started games for Minnesota. Of those sixteen, only one (Santana) qualified for the ERA title. Only five finished with an ERA below 5.00. Minnesota starters as a group finished in the bottom ten in all of baseball in innings pitched (24th), fWAR (22nd), strikeouts (26th), xFIP (27th), least hard contact allowed (21st), and fewest home runs allowed (23rd).

Without dramatic improvements to the rotation, the Twins have little hope of dethroning the rival Indians as AL Central Champions. However, if they can add pitching reinforcements to an offense that’s intimidating from top to bottom, it’s easy to see a path for them to reach the playoffs again. Adding to their fortunes is a weak division wherein the White Sox and Tigers are in the midst of full teardowns, with the Royals likely to follow suit this offseason.

The problem has the potential to solve itself. Santana and Berrios will both return to their roles in 2018, with Kyle Gibson likely to slot in behind them after performing very well in the second half this past season. LHP Stephen Gonsalves and RHP Fernando Romero both rank as top 100 overall prospects and could potentially see major league action next season. And Adalberto Mejia is at the very least a reasonable back-end starter. If Berrios is able to take another step forward, and one of Gonsalves or Romero emerges as a top-of-the-rotation type, the Twins would certainly be no worse off on paper than most contenders.

But even the highest-rated prospects are never sure bets, and Santana, Berrios and Gibson all have at least a few question marks hovering over them. Meanwhile the free agent market for pitchers is full of high-upside starters who carry tremendous risk. Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta represent the top options on the market, while Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto can both opt out of their current contracts. Most of these pitchers would likely cost more than the Twins can afford to pay, and all carry significant injury risk. Japanese phenom Shohei Otani would be an incredibly exciting target, but the competition for his services will certainly be fierce. It’s difficult to imagine what the Twins could offer him that other teams cannot. So while it’s certainly possible the Twins could land a high-end starter, a foray into the free agent pool would likely end with the Twins having to settle for an even riskier tier of starters that includes Andrew Cashner, Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Jason Vargas and a somewhat resurgent Doug Fister.

To say that the trade market for starting pitchers this offseason will be competitive would be an understatement. The top starters in baseball are heavily concentrated on teams with plans to contend next season. Michael Fulmer and Gerrit Cole are examples of solid pitchers who could be made available, but due to heavy demand, the Twins would probably have to fork over at least one of top 30 overall prospects Royce Lewins and Nick Gordon. Both Fulmer and Cole come with injury concerns.

While many teams are in need of rotation help, the Twins’ situation is dire. If the offense can repeat anything close to their late 2017 production, Minnesota will be in the thick of contention all next season. But they absolutely must get significant improvements within the starting five.

How do you think the Twins will address their rotation issues? Vote in the poll and comment below with your ideas.

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