Rangers Notes: Odor, Gallo, Heineman
Rougned Odor‘s persistent offensive struggles have become difficult to overlook, but it doesn’t sound as though there’s much thought to benching him or sending him down to Triple-A for a reset. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that while veteran Logan Forsythe and journeyman Danny Santana have each outperformed Odor, manager Chris Woodward continued to support his struggling second baseman this week. “I would only make that decision if I thought Rougie was to the point where, ‘I can’t do it anymore.’ If he lost hope,” said Woodward of Odor, who is hitting just .161/.231/.329 through 170 plate appearances. “If he keeps fighting the way he does, I feel like I’ve got to support that.” The fact that Odor inked a seven-year, $49.5MM contract on the heels of a 33-homer campaign in 2016 surely plays into the calculus as well, of course. He’s being paid $7.5MM this season and still owed $36MM from 2020-22 (including a buyout on a 2023 option) under the terms of that ill-fated deal.
More from the division…
- The Rangers and slugger Joey Gallo haven’t touched base about a possible long-term deal since spring of 2018, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports in his latest mailbag piece. At that point, talks with agent Scott Boras didn’t progress. Now in the midst of a breakout season in which he’s playing a surprisingly competent center field (+3 Defensive Runs Saved, +0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating, +2 Outs Above Average), Gallo will of course have a substantially price tag if there’s any interest at all. Grant notes that the two sides should take some time this summer to gauge whether Gallo has any interest in such a deal, though there isn’t necessarily any urgency to get a deal done given that Gallo is controlled through 2022. The 25-year-old is hitting .273/.418/.624 with 15 homers through 208 plate appearances. While his average is being propped up to an extent by a .390 BABIP, Gallo is also walking at a career-high 19.7 percent clip and leading the Majors in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. If anything, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gallo actually hit for more power even if his average trends downward a ways.
- Outfield prospect Scott Heineman‘s rehab assignment has been halted after he experienced renewed discomfort in his surgically repaired left shoulder, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. Heineman, 26, hit .295/.355/.429 with 11 homers, 20 doubles, two triples and 16 steals a season ago in Triple-A, perhaps putting himself on the radar for an eventual look at the MLB level. However, he struggled in just six games with Triple-A Nashville on a rehab assignment before being called back. There’s no immediate timeline on when he’ll return to the field, though that determination will presumably come in the near future once he’s further evaluated by the team’s medical staff.
James McCann: Offensive Force?
A few weeks into last offseason, the White Sox parted with their 2017-18 primary catcher, Omar Narvaez, sending him to the Mariners for reliever Alex Colome on Nov. 30. The White Sox found Narvaez’s replacement a couple weeks later when they signed former Tigers starting backstop James McCann to a one-year, $2.5MM deal. In other words, a franchise mired in a 10-year playoff drought paid a minimal cost for an unexciting (maybe even bad) major leaguer. You’re forgiven if you couldn’t have cared less at the time.
Five-plus months later, Chicago’s decision to buy low on McCann looks like one of one of the shrewdest of the winter. The 28-year-old has been an absolute hitting machine as a member of the White Sox, with whom he has slashed .346/.384/.523 (145 wRC+) in 138 plate appearances. Based on wRC+, McCann has been in the same league as franchise catchers Gary Sanchez (154) and Willson Contreras (152) in overall offensive production. It’s a stunning rise for McCann, whom the Tigers non-tendered in November in lieu of paying a projected $3.5MM in arbitration.
McCann can now take solace in the fact that he has been a revelation with division-rival Chicago this year while Detroit’s catchers have been dreadful. That said, the Tigers weren’t crazy for letting him go. McCann was a useful regular for the Tigers once – in 2017 – but still didn’t manage world-beating offensive production that year. His Tigers tenure, which spanned from 2014-18, concluded with a .240/.288/.366 line (76 wRC+) and minus-0.2 fWAR in 1,646 trips to the plate. That’s bad. Defensively, McCann did throw out between 30 and 45 percent of base runners in each of his seasons in the Motor City. That’s good. But he floundered as a pitch framer and blocker. That’s bad.
What we know is that McCann has thrived as a White Sox after he did no such thing as a Tiger. The question is whether he’s born anew in a different uniform, if it’s just a two-month blip or something in between. First of all, he’s not going to sustain this kind of offensive production. He didn’t really walk in Detroit and hasn’t in Chicago either, having recorded rates in the 5 percent range with both teams. McCann’s also not going to keep up a .435 batting average on balls in play, especially considering his lifetime mark is .309. Plus, as someone who currently has four home runs and has never topped 13 in a full season, he won’t make up for his inevitable drop in average with a significant power surge.
While the above paragraph paints a bleak picture, all hope isn’t lost for McCann, who has cut his strikeout and chase rates by roughly 3 percent and elevated his contact rate by about 2 percent. He has also made more meaningful contact, evidenced in part by a noticeable rise in isolated power. McCann put up an unimposing .126 ISO with the Tigers, including a woeful .094 last year, though he’s running a career-high .183 in the category this season. FanGraphs indicates McCann has slashed his soft contact rate by almost 6 percent, while Statcast shows his average exit velocity has hopped from 87.5 mph to 90.5. Statcast also credits McCann with a .347 expected weighted on-base average. That’s a hefty 48 points below his real wOBA (.395), but it’s still 24 points above average and more than respectable for a catcher.
The right-handed McCann has done a lot of his 2019 damage against same-sided pitchers, which is noteworthy in his case because they’ve typically stymied him. When Chicago added McCann, it couldn’t have expected him to suddenly prove capable of handling righties. He has so far, though, and his offensive strides have come with improved defense. Not only has McCann continued to stop would-be base thieves at a high rate (35 percent), but he has been a scratch overall defensive player after grading out as one of the league’s worst catchers in 2018, according to Baseball Prospectus. If that’s not enough, McCann has developed a solid rapport with potential ace Lucas Giolito.
Adding everything up, it’s clear the McCann signing has worked out brilliantly for the White Sox. He has already given Chicago 1.6 fWAR, double his previous career high, and could remain in the team’s plans beyond this season. Once the 2019 campaign finishes, the Sox will have to decide whether to tender McCann a contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility. It would be a no-brainer decision right now. However, in the seemingly improbable event McCann’s overall production careens off a cliff, the club will be able to move on without any damage.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs
If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.
Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018. The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…
Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):
Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.
Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):
Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.
Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):
Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark – while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):
Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.
Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):
We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.
J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):
Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Boras: Dallas Keuchel Will Be Ready Quickly
Free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel hasn’t pitched in a major league game since last October and didn’t participate in spring training. As a result, there’s plenty of concern over how fast Keuchel will be ready to join a team when he ends his months-long stay on the open market and signs. But clubs shouldn’t worry about Keuchel’s preparedness, according to agent Scott Boras, who told Jon Morosi of MLB.com on Thursday that his client could be good to pitch within approximately a week of signing.
Keuchel has been throwing a 95- to 104-pitch sim game every five days to stay in shape, Boras said. We’ve heard that before (links here), but the potential one-week time frame is a new development. However, it’s likely worth taking with a grain of salt. For one, it’s not unusual for Boras to publicly talk up a client. Beyond that, it would be reasonable for Keuchel’s next employer to prefer for the 31-year-old to embark on a short minor league tuneup. Doing so would give Keuchel an opportunity to pitch in a real game (or games) before he potentially impacts a major league pennant race.
Keuchel has garnered plenty of big-game experience, including with the World Series-winning Astros in 2017, and carries a tremendous regular-season track record going back to his 2014 breakout. Nevertheless, the 2015 AL Cy Young winner hasn’t been able to find a team since free agency opened last Oct. 29. Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is in the same boat, but it’s one that figures to finally reach shore soon.
After midnight on June 2, the day before the draft begins, teams will be able to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel without having to pay anything other than money. Clubs would have to surrender draft compensation before then, which has helped lead to this impasse between MLB and the two high-profile free agents.
Mets Notes: Potential Sellers, Alonso, Lugo
The latest out of Queens…
- The Mets started 2019 in solid fashion, sitting a season-high five games over .500 through 13 contests, but have stumbled over the past month and a half. Now in possession of a 27-28 record, the Mets should consider an aggressive teardown if they’re not in contention around the July 31 trade deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. By going in that direction, Olney notes the Mets would mimic the 2015 Padres – a team that tried to contend, wound up failing miserably and then traded away several big-name acquisitions within the next year (Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton and James Shields among them). San Diego general manager A.J. Preller’s decision to pivot toward a rebuild helped the Padres construct an elite pool of young talent that has begun paying enormous dividends at the major league level. If Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen takes a similar route sometime soon, Olney names closer Edwin Diaz and the right-handed starter trio of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler as players he could market in an effort to add more high-end youth to the organization.
- Of course, New York’s not devoid of young, impact talent in the bigs. First baseman Pete Alonso, he of the .264/.338/.624 line (151 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 222 plate appearances, is a testament to that. The 23-year-old may be on his way to top rookie honors in the National League, but his journey to the majors wasn’t easy, as Tim Britton of The Athletic details. Alonso first joined the organization as the 64th pick of the 2016 draft, and Britton – with help from Alonso, his father and multiple Mets scouts – revisits that event and many other moments that led to it.
- The Mets are likely to activate reliever Seth Lugo from the 10-day injured list Friday, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News suggests. Lugo went to the IL on May 20 with right shoulder tendinitis, which has left New York’s disappointing bullpen without arguably its best setup man. The 29-year-old Lugo, a former starter, broke out as a late-game force in 2018 and has since pitched to a 2.30 ERA/2.97 FIP with 8.73 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate in 78 1/3 relief innings.
Quick Hits: 2009 Draft, Trout, Morton, Twins, Bradley, Marlins
Stephen Strasburg generated headlines as the consensus first overall pick of the 2009 draft, though that draft has taken on a different historic import almost ten years later, as that was the night Mike Trout officially became a Major League player. MLB.com’s Jim Callis looks back at the 2009 draft with a decade of hindsight, re-drafting the first round with the top players who were selected (and signed contracts) from that year’s class. In this scenario, the Nationals take Trout first overall instead of Strasburg, who falls to the Pirates with the fourth overall pick. The Mariners take Nolan Arenado with the second pick, while the Padres take Paul Goldschmidt third overall.
The actual draft spots of these superstars (Trout went 25th overall, Arenado in the second round, and Goldschmidt not until the eighth round) is indicative of the draft’s unpredictable nature, as teams and pundits simply never know which unheralded youngster might develop into a gem. Callis includes several interesting notes and scouting opinions about various players at the time of the 2009 draft, including the item that only the Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Tigers were known to be linked to Trout, among teams who had a chance to select him before the Angels. Many clubs didn’t have interest due to rumors that Trout was seeking a $2.5MM draft bonus, which would’ve exceeded the slot price for all but the top five picks, though in the end Trout signed with the Angels for the $1.215MM league-recommended slot price attached to the 25th overall selection.
More from around the baseball world…
- Correcting one of his own reports from the offseason, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link) notes that the Twins “were very much in on” Charlie Morton before the veteran righty signed a two-year, $30MM deal with the Rays. Since Morton was only looking for a short-term deal as he nears the end of his career, he fit the model of what the Twins were looking for this past winter, as the club inked the likes of Nelson Cruz, Martin Perez, Jonathan Schoop, and Marwin Gonzalez to contracts consisting of no more than one or two guaranteed years. It isn’t known how close Morton and the Twins might have come to an agreement, though the Rays did have a geographical ace up their sleeve, as Morton has stated that the Rays’ close proximity to his family’s home in Florida was a factor in his decision. Given that the Twins have already posted the best record in baseball, it’s hard to imagine how much better things could have been for the club with Morton in the rotation.
- After two seasons as an important weapon out of the Diamondbacks‘ bullpen, Archie Bradley has struggled to a 4.63 ERA over 23 1/3 innings in 2019. As a result, manager Torey Lovullo told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other media that Bradley will continue to handled carefully so he can get back on track, and likely won’t see many high-leverage moments. “We might get him some (appearances with) multiple innings to continue to develop a feel. We might give him some really short spurts to walk off the mound and have a good result,” Lovullo said. While a .409 BABIP is a big factor in Bradley’s issues, a lack of control has been his biggest problem, as his 5.79 BB/9 is more than double his walk numbers from the previous two seasons.
- Marlins fans bemoan the fire sale that saw the likes of Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, and Dee Gordon leave the team over the last 18 months, yet as The Athletic’s Marc Carig (subscription required) observes, Miami also parted ways with a wealth of pitching talent in recent years. Luis Castillo, Domingo German, Trevor Williams, and Chris Paddack were all somewhat unheralded prospects when the Fish traded them in various deals for veterans who ultimately didn’t help the team return to contention. Between all of these names and some other notables (Derek Dietrich, Nick Wittgren, Anthony DeSclafani), Carig comprises a startling what-if of a 2019 Marlins roster that would be on pace to win 102 games, as per Baseball Reference WAR calculations. “By simply securing the talent, they’d accomplished the hardest part of assembling a dynasty,” Carig writes. “Then, all of it slipped away. No team bats 1.000 when it comes to trades. Few teams hit near .000. For a period, the Marlins were seemingly one of those.”
Poll: Choose Your Franchise Catcher
Although potential Hall of Famers Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are among the most decorated catchers in baseball history, it appears the two 30-somethings have given way to a new guard at the position. J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras stand out as the most valuable behind-the-plate building blocks in today’s game, owing to performance, age and affordable control. The Brewers’ Yasmani Grandal also belongs in the current class of elite backstops, but the fact that he’s 30 years old, expensive and only signed through this season works against him in comparison to Realmuto, Contreras and Sanchez.
Among those three, the longest big league track record belongs to the Phillies’ Realmuto, who’s in his age-28 season. The athletic Realmuto broke out with the Marlins in 2016 and proceeded to rack up 11.3 fWAR through last year, trailing only Posey and Grandal at his position. He’s fresh off back-to-back 4.0-fWAR seasons and is on a similar pace in his first year as a Phillie.
So far in his new digs, Realmuto has accounted for 2.0 fWAR through 208 plate appearances. While Realmuto’s offensive production has dropped from where it was over the previous three seasons (115 wRC+), his 102 wRC+ remains far above average for his position (89). He’s also an all-world defensive player who possesses far more speed than you’d expect a catcher to have. If there’s one check against Realmuto, it’s that he’s only under control for another season after this one, in which he’s earning $5.9MM.
No full-time catcher has fared better at the plate this season than the hard-hitting Sanchez, whose 154 wRC+ ranks 18th among all players with at least 100 PA. The 26-year-old has mashed 17 home runs, good for a fifth-place tie, to put an uninspiring 2018 behind him. Sanchez combined for 7.5 fWAR from 2016-17, his first two seasons, but fell to 1.7 in ’18 and sits well behind Realmuto this season (1.2). Although Sanchez has a big arm, he’s not in Realmuto’s stratosphere as an overall defender. However, Sanchez is making barely over the league minimum this year and comes with three more seasons of control via arbitration.
Contreras, who turned 27 on May 13, has been a revelation at the plate since he debuted in 2016. Dating back to then, Contreras’ 119 wRC+ ranks second among backstops (only Sanchez’s 128 has been better), while his 7.5 fWAR is eighth. He’s at 152 and 1.7 in those categories this year, having swatted 12 homers and gotten on base at a 40 percent clip. Although Contreras has not gotten rave reviews behind the plate this season or for most of his career, his offense, age and affordability are all huge pluses. Like Sanchez, he’s in his final pre-arb season and controllable through 2022.
Considering all of the above factors, which of these three catchers would you want to build a team around?
(poll link for app users)
Choose Your Franchise Catcher
-
J.T. Realmuto 40% (5,316)
-
Gary Sanchez 31% (4,139)
-
Willson Contreras 29% (3,947)
Total votes: 13,402
Last Season’s 2 Best Closers Have Fallen Off
Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.
In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).
Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.
No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.
Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.
It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.
Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).
Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.
What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.
While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Prospect Carter Stewart To Sign With Japanese Team
TODAY: Stewart will receive roughly $6.2MM in guaranteed money, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, though incentives could make the total in the range of $11MM-$12MM, plus even more is available in awards bonuses.
MAY 21, 8:25pm: Stewart will sign a six-year contract worth more than $7MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He’ll start off in the minor leagues over in Japan.
One can only wonder if Stewart’s decision will ultimately inspire other domestic amateurs to pursue similar opportunities overseas. By securing a $7MM+ guarantee, he’ll almost certainly eclipse what he’d have made in terms of his bonus in next month’s draft. While he’s now locked in his salaries for more than a half decade and put a fairly hard cap on what he can earn, Stewart would’ve likely been years away from even being a consideration for an MLB roster — at which point he’d have been another three years away (at least) from reaching arbitration eligibility. It could very well have taken him as long, if not longer, to reach the point where he could’ve locked in a guaranteed $7MM by playing in Major League Baseball — if he ever reached that level of earnings at all.
1:55pm: Stewart will receive more than $4MM under the deal, MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (Twitter link).
8:37am: Amateur pitching prospect Carter Stewart will continue to take an unusual career path, foregoing the upcoming amateur draft in favor of a stint with Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the agreement (Twitter links).
Though precise terms aren’t yet known, Rosenthal indicates that Stewart will be subject to Nippon Professional Baseball’s typical ten-year player-control system. Whether there are any further understandings or agreements regarding his future aren’t known. Stewart was “believed to be seeking” a $7MM guarantee, per Rosenthal. It’s not yet known whether he’ll receive that level of promise from Fukuoka, and in what form (bonus vs. salary) it’ll be paid.
Stewart is widely considered one of the most talented amateur pitchers in the world. Indeed, the Braves selected him out of high school with the eighth overall pick in the 2018 draft. The sides failed to agree to a contract after the club got a closer look at the medicals. A ligament issue in Stewart’s wrist led the club to lower its offer.
Rather than take the reduced bonus, Stewart enrolled at Eastern Florida State College. By going to a junior college, he preserved the ability to reenter the draft this year. Meanwhile, Stewart and his representatives initiated a grievance regarding the negotiations with the Braves. It was ultimately resolved in the team’s favor. The Braves hold a compensatory pick in this year’s draft.
In the intervening year since the ’18 draft, pundits have soured a bit on Stewart. He delivered excellent results and is still said to have shown top-shelf stuff at times, but also dealt with some inconsistency and saw a few other questions crop up. As of today, Stewart was rated 38th overall by Baseball America and landed just inside the top sixty players on the Fangraphs and MLB.com draft prospect lists.
Heading to Japan hardly means that Stewart won’t have a chance at the majors. But it does make for quite a different — and frankly fascinating — career course. It seems reasonable to presume that Stewart will be counted against the Hawks’ limit of four foreign players — if and when he’s added to the active roster. He’d be eligible to be posted back to MLB teams (with a transfer fee capped at $20MM) at any time, at the election of his new team.
There’s some risk in heading abroad, but it’s hard to ignore the appeal. Stewart will have a heck of a cultural experience. He will presumably enjoy much greater earnings out of the gates, though bonus and salary details aren’t yet known. Neither is it clear whether Stewart is expected to jump right into the team’s NPB rotation out of the gates, but it stands to reason that he’ll be competing in consequential games in front of thousands of passionate fans much sooner in Japan than he would have in North America.
The international transactional landscape continues to evolve in fascinating ways. Shohei Ohtani pushed for an early move to the majors after previously dabbling with a decision to come straight over as an amateur player. Last fall, the Diamondbacks nabbed a promising Japanese amateur player in unusual fashion. We have continued to see North American players head to Japan and other Asian nations in efforts to earn better money and revive their careers, though roster limitations effectively cap the number that can do so. Now, there’s a potential new talent pipeline heading west across the Pacific.
Injury Updates: Sabathia, Gregorius, Peralta, Smith
The latest on some injured list situations from around baseball…
- C.C. Sabathia is lined up to start for the Yankees on Sunday, manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter link) and other reporters. Sabathia was placed on the IL on May 23 due to right knee inflammation, and it ended up being both a short absence, and a fairly standard one for a veteran player with a long history of knee surgeries. Boone noted that Sabathia threw a bullpen session today, so all systems seem to be a go for the left-hander’s 547th career start. Sabathia has a 3.48 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over 41 1/3 innings for New York this season.
- Boone also gave Hoch and other media members an update on Didi Gregorius, saying that the shortstop could return during the Yankees‘ upcoming road trip to Toronto and Cleveland from June 4th-9th. Gregorius has yet to play a full nine innings at shortstop in consecutive games, which Boone noted is an important step in his Tommy John rehab process.
- Diamondbacks outfielder David Peralta hit the IL on May 24 with shoulder inflammation, and manager Torey Lovullo implied to reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that Peralta is likely to miss more than the minimum 10 days. While an early return isn’t totally out of the question, Lovullo said Peralta has yet to begin baseball activities. The struggling D’Backs are certainly hoping Peralta is able to get back to action as soon as possible, given his .309/.357/.524 slash line through 207 PA this season.
- Kevan Smith is also looking at a lengthier stay on the injured list, as the Angels catcher had some concussion symptoms return this week, Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times tweets. Smith was placed on the seven-day concussion IL on May 22 and had begun to take part in baseball activities, though he had been shut down for the last few days. DiGiovanna notes that Smith will be sidelined at least until June 4, when the Angels begin an eight-game homestand, though that timeline is far from certain given the unpredictable nature of concussions.