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Mark Shapiro Discusses Blue Jays’ Financial Situation

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Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro discussed his organization’s financial situation in a chat with MLB.com’s Gregor Chisolm (links to Twitter). The veteran baseball executive commented upon a few matters of both near and long-term interest.

Most immediately, Shapiro made clear that the Jays haven’t tapped into all of their available 2019 payroll. Per Shapiro, “It’s just a question of where and when do these opportunities present themselves and, if we do bring in veteran players, how [sic] is that offset our ability to continue to foster and develop the younger core talent on the team?” It would be a bit of a surprise to see the Toronto organization make any significant expenditures the rest of the winter, given that the team has largely eschewed financial commitments this offseason, though it’s interesting to see an acknowledgement that there’s more funding available.

Broadly, the organization is preparing for a point — not too far in the future, it surely hopes — when it makes sense to ramp up spending. Per Shapiro, “there is a multi-year plan in place” regarding spending, with “an understanding of where we are now and an understanding of where we’re going to go” once the club is back “at the brink of contention.”

When and how that build-up will occur isn’t clear. But there should be ample room to work with when the time comes. The Jays opened each of the prior two campaigns with over $160MM in payroll commitments. The club sits in the $115MM range at present for 2019, with just over $30MM in total commitments past that point on its books.

There’ll be a time, Shapiro says, when “payroll will outpace our revenues.” The baseball operations department doesn’t need to stash cash now to make that possible, though. Shapiro says the organization doesn’t plot out specific future payroll levels and allow its ops unit to save funding space for the future. Rather, there’s “a mutual and common understanding of what the general plan looks like.”

Shapiro also discussed the revenue side. After generally defending the television rights-fee agreement between the Blue Jays and Sportsnet (also owned by Rogers Communications) and noting some differences between the Canadian and American TV markets, Shapiro said the bottom line is that there’s ample money to be made selling baseball in Toronto. “I don’t think there is any excuse or reason why we shouldn’t have among the best revenues when we’re the team that we need to be,” he said. “That’s already been demonstrated materially in the last few years.”

Rays Notes: Kimbrel, Honeywell/De Leon, Kiermaier

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The Rays will need to squeeze every last ounce of value out of their existing roster and payroll if they are to make a real bid for the postseason in an incredibly stratified American League. Here’s the latest, with all links to the reporting of Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times:

  • With some payroll space evidently still available, the Rays have “maintained regular contact” with legendary reliever Craig Kimbrel, Topkin tweets. A successful pursuit remains “unlikely,” per the report. Surely the Rays would only consider Kimbrel on a short-term deal, as the organization has always been careful not to tie up too much future payroll. Whether Kimbrel will ultimately settle for a one or two-year pact — and, if so, what will drive his decisionmaking — isn’t yet evident.
  • Two important young Tampa Bay hurlers are making progress in their efforts to return from Tommy John procedures, Topkin further reports (Twitter links). Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon each threw against live hitters for the first time. It was only 15 pitches apiece, but that’s still a good sign that both of these well-regarded young hurlers are coming along. The Rays will likely continue to take things slow, but surely also entertain visions of either or both making an impact as a mid-season call-up.
  • Topkin also looks in at Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, whom the team badly needs to turn in a healthy and productive campaign. Soon to turn 29, the rangy outfielder is coming off of a disappointing season at the plate in which he slashed just .217/.282/.370. Kiermaier has averaged barely more than 400 plate appearances annually over the past three years due to a variety of injuries. The maladies have tended to come about in the course of Kiermaier’s hard-charging play, though it doesn’t seem as if the team thinks there’s much to be gained from trying to rein him in. “It’s probably best for us to stay out of the way and keep our fingers crossed that none of the freak things happen,” says skipper Kevin Cash.

Latest On Cardinals’ Rotation Plans

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Entering camp, the expectation was that Carlos Martinez would regain his standing as a member of the Cardinals’ starting five. That may ultimately come to pass, though he’ll first need to work back to full strength. In Martinez’s absence, Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets, the Cards will utilize either John Gant or Dakota Hudson to round out the rotation.

Gant, 26, is one of several out-of-options Cardinals hurlers. He pitched to a 3.47 ERA last year in 114 frames over 19 starts and seven relief appearances. The results came in spite of a marginal combination of 7.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 with a 45.1% groundball rate. Gant’s success was driven largely by suppression of home runs (0.71 per nine) and batting average on balls in play (.253), the sustainability of which is questionable. If he’s not in the rotation, Gant will either need to find a landing spot in the bullpen or be exposed to waivers.

Options abound for Hudson, a 24-year-old former first-round pick. He could begin the season as the fifth big-league starter, take a job in the MLB pen, or stay stretched out in the Triple-A rotation. In 19 starts last year at the highest level of the minors, Hudson worked to a 2.50 ERA over 111 2/3 innings with 7.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 to go with a hefty 57.5% groundball rate. The worm-burners kept coming during his 26-appearance foray into the Cards pen. Though he managed only 19 strikeouts against 18 walks in his first 27 1/3 MLB frames, Hudson allowed nary a home run. That’s no fluke; Hudson has permitted only eight long balls in over three hundred professional innings pitched.

Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are other 40-man members that might have been seen as possibilities. Each started MLB contests last year but has evidently already been ruled out of the Opening Day rotation race. As the news further suggests, hugely talented youngster Alex Reyes is also out of the mix to open the season as a starter. But that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily be optioned at the end of camp. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets, manager Mike Shildt says that Reyes will be considered for a relief post. Reyes, 24, is working back from significant shoulder and elbow surgeries and will surely face innings limitations.

Liberty Media CEO Maffei Discusses Braves Outlook

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Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei briefly discussed the Braves outlook at a conference yesterday, as Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. The publicly traded conglomerate owns the Atlanta baseball club.

“I think the Atlanta management knows they have capacity to do more and are looking for the right deal,” Maffei said of the club’s present stance with regard to spending.

That sentence could be read in different ways. It’s unclear whether Maffei was referring to spending availability or trade capital. Neither is it evident how dedicated the club’s pursuit of “the right deal” is at present.

A few free agents would still fit the Braves roster, with former star closer Craig Kimbrel representing the most intriguing target for reasons practical and sentimental. Trade discussions could still be pursued as well; the deal that originally shipped Kimbrel out of Atlanta took place on the eve of Opening Day.

[RELATED: Let’s Find A Landing Spot For Craig Kimbrel]

In their own recent commentary on the organization’s spending, Braves chairman Terry McGuirk and GM Alex Anthopoulos similarly cited remaining payroll flexibility. They also downplayed the possibility of a major spend on a relief arm, emphasized the need to avoid “dead money” risk, and called a major acquisition before the start of the season a “coin flip.”

Whether or not another move is made, Maffei says, the Braves are “well set-up” for the coming season and beyond. He also called it “unfortunate” that the club plays in a division embroiled in a winter-long “arms race” — a state of affairs that arguably supports more aggressive acquisition efforts from the reigning National League East champions.

Ramping up payroll and/or committing it more freely would surely boost the immediate outlook. McGuirk and Anthopoulos previously indicated, though, that the ballclub must also pursue long-term profitability to support a higher payroll in relation to peer organizations. Maffei suggests that the outlook is bullish on the income side of the equation, calling SunTrust Park and its surrounding development a “highly successful” venture that he believes has “only good news ahead.”

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The ever-patient Pirates are again in wait-and-see mode after spending much of the offseason on the sidelines.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The mid-decade Pirates, bursting at the seams with full-burn stars and depth for days, as well as a top-end farm system, were as well-positioned as any in recent memory for the Big Move, a three- or four-for-one swap that would have catapulted the team to the top of the National League. It never came. Fan clamoring fell on deaf ears in the team’s front office, which preferred to lean on its then-renowned player development system to unveil its next crop of new-wave talent, already, it often seemed, in full bloom.

Struggles followed. Stalwarts Starling Marte and Jung-Ho Kang were sidelined with off-field issues, Andrew McCutchen was an avatar of his former self, and the top end of the rotation looked more like the middle. The team’s vaunted Shark Tank bullpen had been drained. Nascent cornerstone Gregory Polanco had hit the skids. The window, suddenly, seemed closed.

But as the team plodded through a mediocre 2018 season (and after McCutchen and Gerrit Cole had been sent packing in the months prior), the brass finally showed its sword, sending out multiple top prospects in deadline deals for late-inning reliever Keone Kela and peripheral ace Chris Archer. It felt like Pittsburgh, so often content to fold, may finally be primed to throw its chips into the middle.

Alas, as the offseason’s nears its end, the Pirates are still playing coy. The team didn’t spend more than $3MM on a single free agent this offseason. Its only major trade – an attempt to shore up shortstop, its weakest position in recent years – brought back a 27-year-old utility player in Erik Gonzalez as its headliner. Gonzalez, who’s slashed .263/.292/.389 in just 275 career MLB plate appearances, will get short’s first crack this season.

Another former Indian, Lonnie Chisenhall, was brought in on the cheap for corner-outfield insurance; the team will cash in the policy immediately, as Gregory Polanco, who finally broke out in ’18, will miss at least the first few weeks with a shoulder injury.  Chisenhall’s last two seasons have been marred by injury; they’ve also been fueled by rockets, as the 30-year-old has posted successive career-highs in hard-hit rate, OBP, and wRC+, and appeared finally to be fulfilling his early-career promise when on the field.

Jung Ho Kang, the soon-to-be 32-year-old third baseman, is the real wildcard here. The team would like to find regular at-bats for Colin Moran, but Kang, who’s posted a team-best 129 career wRC+, could anchor the lineup if he can somehow regain his form. After multiple DUI arrests in his native Korea, and a sexual assault charge levied in his brief time in the states, Kang’s leash will be short – too long, still, for some fans, but the Pirates clearly know what they have in the former MVP of the KBO, and will be over the moon if he can at least approximate his mid-decade output.

Under-the-radar bullpen pickups Lyons, Maurer, Barrett, and Liriano (once a key figure in the team’s renaissance) endeavor to give the unit the depth it lacked in recent years. If even one can be righted under the mystical tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, the Tank may yet be full again.

Jordan Lyles will bring his steadily-climbing fastball velocity and much-improved curveball to the battle for the fifth rotation spot. Prolonged stretches of effectiveness have thus far eluded him in his eight-year MLB career. By effectively swapping him in for Ivan Nova, the Pirates shaved over $6MM of payroll but parted with Nova’s steady (if unspectacular) output.

Questions Remaining

The outfield unit is set and could be a fairly good one if Chisenhall is healthy and Marte and Corey Dickerson can repeat their 2018 efforts. Melky Cabrera is presently battling with J.B. Shuck, Patrick Kivlehan, and Nick Franklin for a roster spot and a reserve role. They’ll have to beat out 40-man members Pablo Reyes and Jose Osuna for a seat at the table.

Catcher (Francisco Cervelli and Jacob Stallings, pending the return of Elias Diaz) and first base (Josh Bell) are settled. Otherwise, there are even greater questions in the infield but also quite a few possibilities. Third base will be covered at the outset by a Moran/Kang platoon, while Adam Frazier will factor heavily at second and Gonzalez figures to have the inside track at short.

It’s not hard to envision changes at the 4-5-6 positions throughout the season. Shortstop is the real issue here, but the team, with its grounder-heavy staff, has never much seemed to care about offense at the position, instead entrenching sure-handed gamers like Jordy Mercer and Clint Barmes there in the last few seasons. Gonzalez is cut from similar cloth. Former top prospect Kevin Newman – who once ranked as high as #23 overall on Keith Law’s list – is hot on Gonzalez’s heels, though he hasn’t hit much after a midseason promotion to AA in 2016. Kevin Kramer is another well-regarded middle-infield prospect; he has served mostly at second base in the minors. Kramer struggled in his first taste of the majors last year, but only after turning in an eye-opening run at Triple-A. Reyes may also factor in the infield mix. Top prospects Cole Tucker (shortstop) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (third base) are nearing MLB readiness and could force their way up during the season to come.

The back-end of the rotation could be a problem: Joe Musgrove, though possessing of the ideal command/sink combination that drives the organization wild, has a checkered injury history and again dealt with multiple ailments last season. Trevor Williams has solidified his spot, but he rarely misses a bat (his swing-and-miss rate was the league’s third-lowest last season) and ERA estimators (xFIP, in particular) are not optimistic. If either falters, or misses significant time, the Pirates better hope that Nick Kingham (torched in limited action last season) or top prospect Mitch Keller is ready to make the jump. You have to squint to see Lyles as a suitable replacement for Nova, leaving the Bucs heavily reliant upon their preexisting collection of young arms.

What to Expect in ’19

The NL Central looks to be a thresher. The best-case scenario still has the Pirates contending for the Central crown, but it’s perched atop a heap of ifs: Archer returning to his dominant 2013-15 form, the back end of the rotation staying healthy and delivering quality innings, Polanco making a swift recovery and showing no ill effects, Frazier serving non-believers a season-long taste of crow, one of Moran, Kang, or Chisenhall emerging as a middle-of-the-order threat, and good health abounding. The likeliest outcome is that the Pirates hover in equilibrium, still stuck an arm’s-length away from the elusive treasure.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason efforts? (Poll link for app users.)

How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?
D 37.38% (2,049 votes)
C 29.88% (1,638 votes)
F 24.66% (1,352 votes)
B 6.51% (357 votes)
A 1.57% (86 votes)
Total Votes: 5,482

Central Notes: Moustakas, Boxberger, Lorenzen, Rupp

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The Brewers will press ahead with their unconventional plan for Mike Moustakas. Skipper Craig Counsell says the long-time third baseman will indeed line up at second base in Milwaukee, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to tweet. The move from the hot corner to second isn’t particularly common. And it’s all but unprecedented for a player to be handed the keys to an up-the-middle defensive position that he has never before played professionally. (Moustakas does have minimal experience at shortstop dating to his first two seasons as a pro.) The Brewers obviously feel the tools are there to allow Moustakas to succeed — once he has been positioned optimally, at least.

More from the central divisions:

  • Royals reliever Brad Boxberger was kept out of spring action with an unspecified leg issue, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star reports (Twitter link). Manager Ned Yost would say only that the hurler had “tweaked” something. Fortunately, Boxberger was able to get back on the bump last night and now seems on track to be ready for the start of the season. Boxberger, who is earning $2.2MM on a one-year deal with the Royals, has been expected to serve as his new club’s closer.
  • The Reds trotted out Michael Lorenzen as a two-way player in Cactus League action today, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. Dual deployment has long been anticipated, though it was — and remains — unclear how frequent he’ll be called upon to line up in the outfield. Lorenzen was in center field today. The 27-year-old hit a robust .290/.333/.710 with four home runs in 34 plate appearances last year, so it’s understandable that the club would like to see what he can do with more opportunities.
  • Baseball decisions can be tough to understand at times. Cameron Rupp’s recent history presents a bit of a puzzle, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News explores. The Tigers’ newly added backstop played in at least half of the Phillies games annually from 2015 through 2017, producing just-below-average, power-driven offense. Rupp’s framing fell apart in 2017, but he had been a decent performer in that metric previously and otherwise was not a problem behind the dish. Despite being relatively youthful and continuing to turn in solid work at the plate, though, Rupp never got a call to the big leagues last year and is already on to his second organization this spring.

An earlier version of this post mistakenly indicated that Boxberger had not yet returned to game action.

Notable Pre-Arb Salaries: Bregman, Flaherty, Hicks, Ohtani

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The Rays decided over the weekend to renew the contract of reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell for just $573,700, highlighting the less-than-satisfying manner in which pre-arbitration players’ salaries are determined. As we noted in that post, other similarly accomplished players have been paid quite a bit more by their respective teams. The collectively bargained system leaves full discretion with clubs to set salaries for those players that are not yet eligible for arbitration, subject only to a floor (currently $555K). A few players have landed in the $1MM range, though that is the exception rather than the rule. Approaches vary widely from team to team. Whatever one thinks about the fairness of that minimum salary level, it’s rather a bizarre system.

Here are some other notable recent pre-arb salary outcomes:

  • The Astros renewed star third bagger Alex Bregman for $640,500, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. That’s a bargain rate for one of the game’s best young position players, who says he’s “disappointed” in how things turned out. Bregman explained: “I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I’m just disappointed it doesn’t seem like the same amount of want.” GM Jeff Luhnow defended the decision in part by pointing to the fact that it’s “one of the top ten” pre-arb salaries ever awarded. “I know it’s not satisfying because he’s a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them,” said Luhnow. “That’s just the nature of our industry right now.”
  • Over in Cardinals camp, there are a few other players who are surely less than thrilled with how things turned out. Righties Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks were each renewed, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The former was renewed at $562,100 — $10K less than the team offered him, reflecting a $10K reduction for his decision not to sign on the dotted line. Flaherty decline to criticize the team, saying that “their process is great and it makes sense,” but says “the system as a whole is not great.”
  • Meanwhile, the Angels managed to reach agreement with AL Rookie of the Year recipient Shohei Ohtani, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ohtani has over than a year less service time than Bregman but will out-earn him at $650K. The ROY hardware certainly didn’t hurt and Ohtani is unquestionably a unique case — and not just because of his two-way contributions. The Halos originally landed Ohtani — Japan’s biggest star and the most fascinating international player ever to cross the Pacific — for a bonus of just over $2.3MM since he chose to come over while still subject to collectively bargained international signing caps. Ohtani’s will be a pre-arb earner one more time in 2020 before qualifying for arbitration.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

A transformative offseason leaves the Diamondbacks without former franchise player Paul Goldschmidt as well as several other top contributors of recent years.  Still, the D’Backs stopped short of a full rebuild, and are hoping to remain competitive in 2019.

Major League Signings

  • Merrill Kelly, SP: Two years, $5.5MM (plus $4.25MM club option for 2021, $5.25MM for 2022)
  • Adam Jones, OF: One year, $3MM
  • Wilmer Flores, IF: One year, $4.25MM (includes $500K buyout of $6MM club option for 2020)
  • Greg Holland, RP: One year, $3.25MM
  • Caleb Joseph, C: One year split contract, $250K ($850K more if Joseph makes MLB roster)
  • Total spend: $16.25MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Eduardo Escobar, IF: Three years, $21MM
  • Torey Lovullo, manager: Contract extended through the 2021 season

Notable Losses

[Diamondbacks Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

One of Arizona’s primary offseason questions was answered before free agency even began, as the D’Backs inked Eduardo Escobar to a three-year, $21MM extension.  After coming from the Twins in a July deadline deal, Escobar obviously enjoyed his brief stint in the desert enough that he chose to forego free agency to remain — perhaps a canny move in hindsight, given how many other comparable free agent infielders had to settle for two or fewer guaranteed years.

With the versatile Escobar locked up so early, the D’Backs had plenty of flexibility as they filled out the rest of their infield picture.  As it looks going into Opening Day, Escobar will be Arizona’s primary third baseman, while Jake Lamb will shift over to first base (perhaps in a timeshare with Christian Walker, or maybe Yasmany Tomas if Tomas can earn his way back onto the 40-man roster).

The right-handed hitting Wilmer Flores could also factor into the first base mix, though the former Met played all over the infield during his six seasons in New York.  While Flores can help out at several positions, he looks to be line for a good chunk of time at second base now that Ketel Marte is being converted into at least a part-time center fielder.

Marte’s first season as a proper everyday player yielded good dividends, as he posted above-average offensive (104 wRC+, .260/.332/.437 over 580 PA) and defensive (+7 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 UZR/150) numbers as Arizona’s everyday second baseman.  While there’s a solid “if it ain’t broke…” type of argument to made that Marte should just remain at second, the D’Backs don’t lose anything by giving Marte at least a part-time look in center field.

On days that Marte isn’t in center, veteran Adam Jones could step into the role in his new capacity as Arizona’s fourth outfielder.  Jones is no longer the player he was during his All-Star days in Baltimore, though as he moves into this new stage of his career, Jones still carries value as a player capable of playing all three outfield roles (even if he’s best utilized in the corners) and as a right-handed bat who can spell David Peralta against some tough lefties.  Beyond on-field contributions, Jones is also a respected clubhouse leader who can help fill the void left behind by the Diamondbacks’ departed veterans.

Jones’ signing may have been necessitated by Jarrod Dyson’s injury situation, as an oblique problem threatens Dyson’s availability for Opening Day.  If Dyson requires a trip to the injured list, the out-of-options Socrates Brito will be retained on the 25-man roster, though Brito’s status could be in question once Dyson returns.  For additional depth, Abraham Almonte and Matt Szczur both joined the club on minor league contracts.

The Goldschmidt trade came with no small amount of pain for the D’Backs, which obviously is expected when moving one of the game’s best players.  Still, the Snakes hope the trade will provide a good return for years to come, in the form of a catcher of the future (and present) in Carson Kelly along with a potential long-term rotation piece in Luke Weaver.

After just 63 MLB games and 131 plate appearances over the last three seasons, Kelly’s development had simply stalled, as Yadier Molina continues to have the Cardinals’ starting catching job on lockdown.  With the promise of more regular playing time available in Arizona, Kelly finally has the opportunity to show the potential that made him a top-100 prospect.  Though one suspects Kelly will end up with the bulk of playing time, the Diamondbacks will be juggling at-bats between Kelly, Alex Avila, John Ryan Murphy, and perhaps even Caleb Joseph, since the team still looks to keep three catchers on its 25-man roster.

Weaver was also a highly-touted prospect out of the St. Louis farm system, and he sparkled over a brief (60 1/3 IP) stint in the 2017 season.  His numbers took a step back last season, however, as Weaver posted a 4.95 ERA, 2.24 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 136 1/3 frames.  Call it a sophomore slump, or the league simply adjusting better to Weaver after more exposure, yet Weaver was likely only expendable due to the Cardinals’ rotation depth.  Many other teams would have clung to a 25-year-old with this talent level, and the D’Backs will now hope that Weaver can fill the void left behind by Patrick Corbin and Clay Buchholz.

Merrill Kelly was another rotation addition, as the 30-year-old will finally look to make his Major League debut.  Originally a product of the Rays’ farm system, Kelly made it as far as the Triple-A level before heading overseas for a four-year stint in the Korea Baseball Organization.  Kelly is an inexpensive flier that could be a real find for the D’Backs if he can carry his KBO form over to the big leagues.  It also helps that the Snakes don’t need Kelly to be anything more than a fifth starter at this point, as Kelly is currently lined up behind Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, and Weaver.  (Plus, Taijuan Walker should return in the second half of the season if his Tommy John recovery goes smoothly.)

Speaking of fliers, the D’Backs made a $3.25MM bet on a more familiar MLB name in signing Greg Holland to a one-year deal.  It was only in 2017 that Holland turned in a largely-strong season as the Rockies’ All-Star closer. After a lengthy trip through free agency, Holland didn’t sign until landing with the Cardinals on Opening Day 2018.  The lack of a Spring Training clearly impacted Holland, as he struggled through a poor season.  Since Brad Boxberger was non-tendered and Silvino Bracho has been lost to Tommy John surgery, there’s certainly room for a reinvigorated Holland to earn significant innings in the Arizona bullpen.

Questions Remaining

That “notable losses” category almost speaks for itself, as the Diamondbacks quietly underwent one of the more substantial roster overhauls of any team in the 2018-19 offseason.  Some of those departures, of course, can be chalked up to the normal winter roster churn, though there’s no hiding the fact that Arizona lost its best hitter (Goldschmidt), best pitcher (Corbin), plus three more of the team’s top ten fWAR contributors from 2018 (A.J. Pollock, Buchholz, and valuable utilityman Daniel Descalso).

There’s only so many low-cost moves a team can make to fill in so many notable gaps, especially since the 2018 roster wasn’t exactly stacked with world-beaters to begin with, having produced only an 82-80 record.  A Lamb/Walker first base platoon has potential, though even at its best it isn’t going to match Goldschmidt’s production.  Weaver and Kelly also have promise but are unproven commodities at the MLB level, and it be remains to be seen if Marte can play an acceptable center field.

Cutting some big salaries and still remaining a solid postseason contender is one thing if you’re, for example, the Indians in the weak AL Central.  But the D’Backs still look at be at least a few steps behind the Dodgers and Rockies in the NL West, leaving Arizona in competition with virtually the entire rest of the National League for a wild card berth.  Could the Snakes get lucky if the teams in the stacked NL East and NL Central beat up on each other?  It’s possible, if improbable.

In a way, this could be the type of middle ground that GM Mike Hazen was aiming for last fall, as Hazen’s front office looked to “be creative” with its offseason maneuvering.  If there’s enough standings congestion that the D’Backs could finish with a top-12 draft pick yet still play enough competitive baseball to keep the fans coming out to the park, that’s a pretty positive result for a team going through a semi-rebuild.

The question remains, however, if Arizona’s half-measures approach won’t leave the team in a similar situation next winter.  If the D’Backs don’t see themselves as full-fledged contenders by 2020, then it may have made sense for the club to also trade Ray and Peralta this winter, as both are controlled only for two more seasons.  Peralta drew interest from the Braves, while the Phillies and Astros were two of the clubs known to be in on Ray’s services, this winter, though the Snakes didn’t seem too keen on trading either.  (Unsurprisingly, Arizona put a very high asking price on Ray in trade talks.)

One player the D’Backs did shop more openly is Greinke, whose enormous $95.5MM remaining salary makes up an untenably large portion of Arizona’s payroll, despite how well Greinke has pitched in the last two seasons.  Between that salary, Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list and his personal desire to stay with the Diamondbacks, however, a trade partner wasn’t found.

Greinke’s salary and Tomas’ ill-fated contract account for a whopping $50MM of the Diamondbacks’ 2019 payroll, and then close to $53MM in 2020.  Last season’s $131.5MM Opening Day payroll hit a new high-water mark for the team, and that seems to be the current ceiling for what ownership is prepared to spend on the roster, leaving some trimming necessary (i.e. the Goldschmidt trade) to keep salaries in check.

Could the D’Backs spend more?  Quite probably, given that they just signed a new TV deal a few years ago, though the club has also been angling for renovations to Chase Field or even a new ballpark altogether in order to increase stadium revenues.  But, if payroll isn’t going to be on the rise, it limits what Hazen’s front office can do in order to keep the rest of his core group together.  There wasn’t any serious consideration given to re-signing Corbin or Pollock, and there hasn’t been any speculation about Ray or Peralta being extended beyond the 2020 season.

2019 Season Outlook

Marte blossoming in center field, Weaver and Kelly establishing themselves as quality big leaguers, bounce-back seasons from Lamb, Holland, Jones, and Steven Souza  — a lot will have to go right for the Diamondbacks to reach the postseason.  It seems likelier they’ll end up in the middle of the pack, though perhaps there’s enough talent on hand to keep things interesting.  On the other hand, if a slow start leads to Ray, Peralta, etc. being moved at the trade deadline, Arizona could find itself in the lower fifth of a very competitive National League.

How would you grade the Diamondbacks’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Diamondbacks' Offseason?
C 37.67% (1,461 votes)
D 28.34% (1,099 votes)
B 17.12% (664 votes)
F 14.34% (556 votes)
A 2.53% (98 votes)
Total Votes: 3,878

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Dodgers Place Andrew Toles On Restricted List

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The Dodgers have placed outfielder Andrew Toles on the restricted list, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. Toles has yet to report to spring camp owing to an undisclosed personal matter.

Details are lacking, though it seems that today’s move was not driven by any change in Toles’s situation. With no resolution in sight, though, the Dodgers will now have another 40-man roster spot to work with for the time being.

Still just 26 years old, Toles burst onto the MLB scene in 2016 but missed much of the ensuing season with an ACL tear. He ultimately received only a limited opportunity last year, struggling in just 32 plate appearances, but hit well (.306/.345/.461) in his 275 trips to the plate at Triple-A.

The expectation had been that the left-handed-hitting Toles would challenge for a part-time role in Spring Training. Just how things might have shaken out can’t be known given that he never made it into camp. Toles will remain under control of the Dodgers organization, which will ultimately need to decide whether to add him back to the 40-man roster if and when he is ready to resume playing.

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