Orioles Select Adley Rutschman First Overall
The Orioles have a new front office and new dugout leadership. And now, the club has a new top prospect after officially selecting star Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick of the 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft.
Though the Baltimore organization kept things quiet in the build-up to the draft, it would have rated as a major surprise had the club gone in a different direction. Rutschman checks all the boxes you want to see in a 1-1 draft selection.
Rutschman is widely considered the best overall prospect available this year. He’s a highly accomplished collegiate catcher who helped his team to a national championship last year. (Indeed, he was named the most outstanding player of the College World Series.)
Scouting reports on Rutschman, an Oregon native, read like a creat-a-player dream list from a video game. He’s a switch hitter who has walked more often than striking out in college even while delivering outstanding power. Scouts also grade him as a top-tier defensive performer behind the dish.
It’s a momentous decision for an Orioles club that has fallen on hard times after a questionable call to attempt to contend in 2018. The team’s new front office will look to assemble as much talent as possible and ramp up toward a return to glory, with Rutschman’s timeline likely to be a key factor.
The first overall pick comes with a $8.42MM bonus allocation. The O’s have the second-highest overall pool allocation. While the Diamondbacks won’t choose until the 16th overall pick, they added a pair of compensation picks that significantly boosted their overall availability.
Final Mock Drafts Form Consensus At Top Of Draft
If you’re just realizing that tonight is the MLB Draft, you’ll need to catch up quickly. Baseball’s Rule 4 amateur draft will never have the drama (real or concocted) of the NFL version of the event, but it’s still a major moment for the sport. This year, new Orioles GM Mike Elias will make a franchise-defining pick to kick off the festivities … in just about half an hour, at 7pm eastern.
It’s often said that teams increasingly share common player assessments in baseball’s information age. And unlike football, where fit matters quite a bit, it’s generally believed that baseball teams ought to take the best player available since so few are able to make it to the majors in the short term.
So, does that mean the MLB draft is predictable? No … but maybe also yes, at least in some respects.
There’s still plenty of room for disagreement on amateur players; statistics are obviously less useful when they are logged against disparate competition of varying ability. The draft isn’t just a rank ordering of true talent, anyway. It involves considerations of overall draft bonus pools and off-the-books negotiations with unofficial player advisers. (For more on that side of the proceedings, read this great piece from Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper.)
That said, those behind-the-scenes factors can also leave some nuggets of information that allow other teams, agents, and draft observers to gauge the likely outcome of the draft’s earliest stages. It’s typically still difficult to know in advance how things will shake out, but this year there’s an unusual degree of consensus in the draft analysis community.
The final mock drafts all share a common top-five, predicting:
- Orioles to select Adley Rutschman
- Royals to select Bobby Witt, Jr.
- White Sox to select Andrew Vaughn
- Marlins to select J.J. Bleday
- Tigers to select Riley Greene
Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB.com, and ESPN.com all have quite a few differences in their predicted boards, of course. But all except Fangraphs also agree on the next two picks (CJ Abrams to Padres and Nick Lodolo to Reds).
Whether anything will occur to shake things up remains to be seen. There’s still some rumblings of intrigue with the 1-1 selection; Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs tweets that it may not be settled even at this point. Keith Law of ESPN.com also tweeted about some top-five possibilities that fall outside of the consensus expectation.
Beyond the final mock drafts, here are some other draft resources to check out or reference as the draft unfolds.
Angels Designate John Curtiss
The Angels have designated righty John Curtiss for assignment, per a club announcement. Infielder Taylor Ward will take the open active roster spot.
The club also announced that outfielder Michael Hermosillo has been reinstated from the 60-day IL. That move absorbs the newly opened 40-man spot. Hermosillo was optioned to Triple-A.
The 26-year-old Curtiss did not get into a game in his second stint of the year on the MLB roster; he made just one appearance earlier in the season. In 21 1/3 innings this year at Triple-A, Curtiss has allowed 14 earned runs on twenty hits with a 29:13 K/BB ratio.
Phillies Option Nick Williams, Activate Jay Bruce
If you weren’t watching the wire this weekend, the Phillies swung an early deal to add a lefty power bat. Today, the club announced that outfielder Nick Williams was optioned out to make way for veteran slugger Jay Bruce, who’s active for the team’s game this evening.
In another move, the Phils have optioned down lefty Cole Irvin. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by fellow southpaw Austin Davis, who’ll slip into the bullpen.
The 25-year-old Williams was already optioned out after receiving few opportunities during a rough start to the season. He came back onto the active roster following the arrest of outfielder Odubel Herrera, but has since struck out six times in eight plate appearances.
For the time being, Williams will get to work on finding his bat at Triple-A. The former top prospect will serve as a near-term depth piece for the Phils, who’ll also hope he can reclaim some of his former promise. It’s certainly possible to imagine the team exploring trade options involving Williams this summer or in the coming offseason.
Latest On Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel‘s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.
The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).
The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.
Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.
Brewers Option Keston Hiura, Activate Travis Shaw
The Brewers have optioned second baseman Keston Hiura, the club announced today. He’ll leave the active roster to make way for the activation of Travis Shaw, who had been rehabbing a wrist injury.
Hiura, 22, certainly hasn’t shown himself in capable of keeping up at the game’s highest level. To the contrary, he’s slashing a hefty .281/.333/.531 with five home runs in 69 plate appearances. While there’s much to be desired in his combination of 23 strikeouts and three walks, Hiura has largely confirmed that the Brewers and prospect watchers were right to expect big things right out of the gates.
It’s tough to see that batting line leave the active roster, particularly given Shaw’s struggles to open the year. He’ll presumably return to his customary duties at the hot corner, with Mike Moustakas going back to second base. The defensive alignment is suboptimal, but passable; it’s the hitting department where this decision will likely be judged.
Before he hit the shelf, the 29-year-old Shaw managed only a .163/.266/.281 slash in 154 plate appearances. That’s far shy of the output he delivered in his first two seasons in Milwaukee, during which he launched 63 home runs and batted a cumulative .258/.347/.497.
GM David Stearns explained to reporters that the club made this move to “preserv[e] organizational depth.” (Via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel; links to Twitter.) Of course, Shaw could have been optioned down instead of Hiura, but Stearns says the veteran has earned the right to step back into the MLB lineup. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to stay there. The pressure will be on Shaw and struggling first baseman Jesus Aguilar, who is out of options.
Stearns rejected the notion that service time played a role in the decision. Whether or not that was a motivating factor, there are implications for both players. Hiura’s initial promotion occurred on May 14th, meaning he could have run up 139 days of service by remaining in the majors all year long. That would have set him up for potential future Super Two qualification. Unless he comes back rather quickly, that’ll no longer be the case. On Shaw’s side, he’ll get the opportunity to reestablish his stock and boost his arbitration earning power by returning to the MLB roster. He has a strong starting point with this year’s $4.675MM salary, though that also means he’ll need to improve in order to be tendered by the Brewers (or command good money in free agency if he isn’t).
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Kimbrel, CarGo, Nationals
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with Tim Dierkes.
Royals Place Hunter Dozier On 10-Day IL
The Royals have placed third baseman Hunter Dozier on the 10-day injured list, per a club announcement. It’s backdated to May 31st, meaning Dozier could be activated by June 10th.
Details of the injury aren’t really clear, though Dozier has been limited by chest tightness. It seems to be a relatively minor muscular issue. The hope was that he’d bounce back quickly enough without an IL placement, but that obviously proved optimistic.
Any disruption to Dozier’s current run is unwelcome. The former top draft pick had failed to accomplish much at all in the majors until breaking out early this season at 27 years of age.
Through 216 plate appearances this season, Dozier carries a .314/.398/.589 slash with 11 home runs and 41:26 K/BB ratio. He still needs to prove that he can keep things up, particularly as opposing pitchers increasingly focus on him as a threat, but it’s obviously quite a promising run of results.
It doesn’t seem as if the present injury will present much of an obstacle. While Dozier is down, the Royals will presumably rely upon the just-recalled Cheslor Cuthbert at the hot corner. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Kelvin Gutierrez come back up to help fill out the infield mix; promoting him would not require a 40-man roster move.
Zac Rosscup Elects Free Agency
12:05pm: The team announced that Rosscup has elected free agency rather than take an outright assignment, as is his right as a player with more than three years of big league service time.
10:20am: Left-hander Zac Rosscup cleared waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo by the Blue Jays following last week’s DFA, per the team’s transactions page.
Rosscup, 31 next week, appeared in just two games with the Jays after being claimed off waivers out of the Mariners organization, allowing four runs on three hits and two walks with two strikeouts in one inning. Rosscup has posted huge swinging-strike rates over the past couple of seasons and demonstrated an ability to rack up strikeouts in bunches — 42 in his past 26 innings — but his control has been evaporated in 2019. Through 15 innings of work this year, he’s allowed 16 walks and thrown two wild pitches.
Control issues notwithstanding, Rosscup averages 92.4 mph on his fastball and has generated a gaudy 23.7 percent swinging-strike rate on his slider since the start of the 2018 campaign. He’s also out of minor league options, so any club that eventually puts him back on the big league roster would need to expose him to waivers again if it wished to then send him back to the minors.
Orioles Promote Chance Sisco
The Orioles announced that they’ve promoted catcher Chance Sisco from Triple-A Norfolk. He’ll join the club for the team’s upcoming series against the Rangers and will presumably have the opportunity to prove himself as a viable everyday option for the club moving forward.
Sisco, 24, was widely regarded as one of the game’s top 100 prospects in 2017-18 and looked impressive in a late-season cup of coffee with the O’s in 2017. He wasn’t able to seize the team’s starting role in 2018, however, as he struggled to a dismal .181/.288/.269 slash through 63 games and 184 plate appearances. It’s not uncommon for a young player to flounder through his first extended look at the big league level though, and catchers in particular are often a bit slower to develop offensively.
Sisco opened the season in Triple-A to continue rounding out his game and hit his way back to the Majors with a .289/.383/.530 showing in 193 plate appearances. He’s homered 10 times, hit 10 doubles and collected 19 walks (9.8 percent) against 43 strikeouts (23.3 percent) on the season so far. He’s been average or a tick below in terms of framing over the past couple of seasons and has struggled to control the running game (6-for-33 in 2019), but Sisco’s bat merits another audition at the MLB level as the rebuilding Orioles continue to assess his long-term role in the organization.
With Baltimore, Sisco will team with Pedro Severino to handle the catching duties. His left-handed bat and Severino’s right-handed bat make for a natural platoon if the O’s wish to divide playing time in that manner, and it’d be hard to completely scale back Severino’s at-bats based on how well he’s played. The 25-year-old has proven to be a waiver steal out of the Nationals organization, hitting .273/.360/.475 with five long balls and five doubles in 115 plate appearance and throwing out nine of 15 potential basestealers. He’s allowed five passed balls and posted slightly below-average framing marks, which hurts his all-around value, but the O’s have to nonetheless be thrilled with the results of that particular claim.
Beyond Severino, the Orioles have relied on the light-hitting duo of Jesus Sucre and Austin Wynns behind the dish. Wynns was optioned to Norfolk yesterday, while Sucre was removed from the 40-man roster earlier in the season but accepted an outright assignment to Norfolk. That pairing will now handle regular catching duty in Triple-A and serve as depth.