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Poll: Should The Nationals Retain Dusty Baker?

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2017 at 10:45am CDT

It goes without saying that the Nationals’ 2017 season ended in bitter disappointment, as the organization once again failed to make it out of the NLDS despite cruising to its fourth NL East title in the past six campaigns. The exit, in a wild and mistake-filled Game 5 loss, was yet stranger and more baffling than the previous ones — which, surely, is saying something.

While manager Dusty Baker has received quite a lot of criticism, both this year and in the past, he clearly did not deserve all the blame. Despite some questionable high-leverage personnel moves — everyone’s favorite area to nitpick — Baker was not the direct cause of the major on-field failures that led to the Nats’ demise. And he has also guided the club successfully over the course of the regular season, particularly in light of the disarray that existed when he took over following the inglorious exit of Matt Williams. At the same time, Baker obviously hasn’t yet guided the Nationals out of their postseason malaise, continuing his own uninspiring track record in October.

Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post discusses some key considerations at play regarding Baker. Of particular note: there was at least some level of discord between the skipper and club ownership over the way mid-season extension talks played out. That certainly follows a hard-to-deny trend of managerial tensions over the years. At the same time, there’s a need to chart a course for a critical offseason and 2018 campaign — rather than allowing any uncertainty to linger — while also perhaps attempting to find some stability in the dugout for the first time since the franchise landed in D.C. You’ll certainly want to give Svrluga’s piece a full read for all the nuance at play here.

No matter what, it seems prudent for the team to act relatively quickly and decisively. Making a change away from Baker would be a decision fraught with risk, including from inside the clubhouse. Negotiating with him may or may not be straightforward, and itself comes with some risk of a collapse (given the track record of ownership with managerial dealings). Several other teams are already deep into searches for new skippers, which could take several possible alternatives off the table.

Needless to say, there are many variables still at play. But the essential question remains whether the Nationals wish to retain Baker. Should they?

An Early Look At The Cardinals’ Search For A Closer

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2017 at 9:18am CDT

As the Cardinals made a late push at a postseason spot this year, it seemed the club had finally sorted things out in the ninth inning — and done so for 2018 as well. Trevor Rosenthal, once the team’s lock-down closer, had rediscovered and even improved upon his former form.

The sense of certainty did not lost long. The grim UCL reaper came for the powerful righty in late August, knocking him out for most or all of the 2018 campaign. Whatever hope Rosenthal may have of returning late in the season to come, it likely won’t be sufficient for the team to tender him a contract at the projected rate of $7.9MM.

Seung-hwan Oh had taken over closing duties for Rosenthal when he faltered in 2016, but Oh himself stumbled last year and is in any event now a free agent. Brett Cecil rebounded from an ugly start to his time in St. Louis, especially in the peripherals, but was never really given a look in that role. Tyler Lyons turned in an exciting season but made way for Juan Nicasio, who was acquired despite the fact that he was not eligible for the postseason. And young flamethrower Sandy Alcantara continues to show eye-popping talent, but likely won’t be entrusted with such a key role early in 2018 after exhibiting some walk issues during his first MLB stint last year.

All said, it’s rather clear that the Cardinals will be looking for an outside acquisition to secure late-inning victories. The team’s leadership largely acknowledges as much, as Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Looking around the rest of baseball, it’s hard to identify any other team with such an evident need in the 9th. Among hopeful contenders, there are a few other clubs with potential openings — the Cubs, Twins, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Angels, especially — though some of those organizations may well look to internal options. Other organizations will consider adding high-leverage relievers, even if they already have ninth-inning options penciled in, so there is other competition. But the need for an established closer is more acute in St. Louis than anywhere else.

As the Cards begin mapping out an offseason strategy, here are some of the names they might be weighing:

Free Agents

Despite expressing a general aversion to “pay[ing] retail for closers,” GM Mike Girsch acknowledges a need to “evaluate the brand-name closers in the market.”

Wade Davis has emerged as the top target, as he carried a 2.30 ERA through the regular season and has come up big thus far in the postseason. Davis is still pumping mid-nineties heat, even if it isn’t quite at his peak, and set a career high with a 15.4% swinging-strike rate.
Greg Holland did not quite hold his edge for the entirety of a bounceback season, though surely his extensive absence also played a role. Holland also drew swings and misses on more than 15% of the pitches he threw despite a more significant velocity drop than Davis has experienced to this point. Though he got he job done for most of the year at altitude, Holland did end with a less-than-dominant 3.61 ERA.
Addison Reed stepped into the closer’s role for the Mets before his mid-season trade to the Red Sox and has plenty of high-leverage experience in his career. He has yet to reach 29 years of age and, unlike the prior two names on this list, brings elite control to the table and also set a personal best with a 13.7% swinging-strike rate. There’s certainly a case to be made that Reed represents a more palatable long-term investment and can be trusted to handle the ninth.
Juan Nicasio, as noted, ended up taking a surprising route to Cards late in the season. He ended up saving four games in 11 strong innings. Over the course of the year, Nicasio led the National League with 76 appearances and carried a 2.61 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While the converted starter has relatively minimal experience in the late innings, he might represent a more budget-friendly possibility.

There are other free agents with ample late-inning experience, including Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Koji Uehara, and Sergio Romo. Those and others could obviously be considered by the Cards, but likely wouldn’t be added with closing duties in mind.

One-Year Rentals

The Cards will surely also look into trade possibilities. With Alcantara and other good arms on the rise, though, perhaps the focus will be on shoring things up for 2018 rather than securing a longer-term piece (at a much higher price, no doubt).

Kelvin Herrera could represent an interesting target. The Royals dealt Davis away last year for a talented player (Jorge Soler) who had fallen out of favor with his contending team. St. Louis has quite a few intriguing assets (Aledmys Diaz, first and foremost) that could fit a similar description. Herrera is just 27 years old but will be entering his final season of arb control at a projected $8.3MM. He’s also coming off of a tepid 2017 season in which he managed only a 4.25 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 while permitting a sudden jump in home runs (1.37 per nine on a 14.5% HR/FB rate). Herrera is still throwing pure heat but did slip to an 11.5% swinging-strike rate. And some late-season forearm issues are a bit concerning from the perspective of an acquiring organization.
Zach Britton might also be a one-year bounceback target, though he could be in line for a $12.2MM payday and had some fairly worrying health and performance issues in 2017. Plus, the O’s presently insist they aren’t interested in dealing him. There’s still time for that stance to change, however, and the Cards would be one of many teams that could dream on a revived Britton. Teammate Brad Brach is also a quality late-inning arm and is set to earn just $5.2MM, though as with Britton it remains unclear whether he’ll truly be available at any kind of reasonable price.

Multi-Year Assets

While price tags figure to remain high for sought-after young relievers, there are quite a few interesting names to consider.

Brad Hand is earning a reasonable $3.8MM in his second-to-last season of arb control. Though the Padres’ 27-year-old only just stepped into the closer’s role in the middle of 2017, that change didn’t seem to bother the breakout reliever, who worked to a 2.16 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over a healthy 79 1/3 frames. Hand can work deep and deliver top-line results, though his status as one of the game’s best southpaws will no doubt also lead to broad interest.
Raisel Iglesias continues to dominate and is still 27 years old. The Reds hurler will earn $4.5MM this year, as his contract calls for, and will likely opt into arbitration beginning in 2018 — when his salary figures to ramp up quite a bit. Still, with control through 2021, Iglesias has huge value. Plus, he may yet be on the come, as he boosted both his average fastball velo and swinging-strike rate in 2017.
Alex Colome will take home a projected $5.5MM from the Rays with two more years of control remaining. It’s still not clear what kind of course Tampa Bay will take this winter; though it seems more likely than not that the team will keep trying to contend, it’s still possible that Colome will be shopped around a bit. The 28-year-old failed to sustain his 2016 breakout, though, tallying a 3.24 ERA with a pedestrian 7.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 66 2/3 innings.
Arodys Vizcaino has had plenty of ups and downs for the Braves, who may prefer simply to hold onto him rather than trying to secure what may not be an exciting return. But Vizcaino did manage a 2.83 ERA last year while closing 14 games, so could hold appeal. He is slated to earn something in the realm of $3.7MM and can also be tendered arbitration for 2019, so there’s also somewhat less contractual upside than with some of the other pitchers discussed here — perhaps lowering the ask on Viz. In his favor? A blistering 98 mph heater and career-best 14.7% swinging-strike rate. Beyond questions about his ability to reliably handle closing duties for a full season, we’ll also need to wait to see what course the Braves take once their current front-office mess is resolved.
Dellin Betances could be an intriguing buy-low target if the Yankees decide to move on. While he has often been absurdly dominant, Betances showed a concerning loss of the strike zone down the stretch and into the postseason. But his overwhelming stuff and upside are undeniable. With a projected $4.4MM arb salary and another year of control, he’d draw big interest despite the struggles. Of course, there’s also good reason for New York to hold and hope for a rebound, and the risk may be too great for a team like the Cards to trust the ninth to Betances coming out of camp.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has also reported that the Cards have some interest in right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano — the longtime closer for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes. It seems unlikely that a big league club would sign the free agent and immediately hand him the keys to the ninth inning, though if he impresses early in his MLB tenure he could emerge as a closing option, as Oh did in his 2016 debut campaign.

There are a few other young names that could conceivably enter the mix here — most notably Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays, Edwin Diaz of the Mariners, and perhaps the Phillies’ Hector Neris. But all indications are that there’s no significant likelihood of these players being moved; Toronto and Seattle insist they will try again to contend, while the Phils probably won’t have much motivation to part with a pre-arb relief talent as their competitive window begins to re-open.

Diamondbacks Outright Steve Hathaway

By Jeff Todd | October 16, 2017 at 10:54pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have outrighted lefty Steve Hathaway off of the 40-man roster, per a club announcement. He was first reinstated from the 60-day DL.

Shoulder issues kept the 27-year-old Hathaway out for all but one appearance this year. That made for a disappointing campaign for the former 14th-rounder, who cracked the majors last year despite opening the season with just 56 low-minors relief appearances under his belt.

Hathaway obviously piqued the D-Backs’ interest in 2016, when he threw 45 innings of 2.60 ERA ball in stops at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Though he managed only 7.8 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 along the way, that effort earned Hathaway a first shot at the big leagues. Through 14 2/3 innings spread over 24 appearances, he surrendered eight earned runs on 18 hits while recording 15 strikeouts against six walks.

2017-18 Offseason Outlook Series

By Jeff Todd | October 16, 2017 at 10:36pm CDT

Here at MLBTR, we have been hard at work on our annual Offseason Outlook series. This post will be updated to include links to all the completed articles, and will be available under MLBTR Features on the right-hand sidebar on the desktop version of the site.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By Kyle Downing | October 16, 2017 at 9:22pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

As they continued to build back from a full roster teardown, the Phillies finished the 2017 season with a 66-96 record, good for last in the NL East. But their rebuilding process has begun to bear fruit. Thanks in part to contributions from some exciting young rookies, Philadelphia finished the season strong by posting a winning record in September (15-13). The team is now free of the veteran encumbrances that trailed its last competitive window, so it’ll face some questions on how to allocate financial resources.

Guaranteed Contracts

Odubel Herrera, OF: $26.4MM through 2021 ($11.5MM club option for 2022, $2.5MM buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
Luis Garcia (3.007) – $1.4MM
Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM

Free Agents

Clay Buchholz, Andres Blanco, Daniel Nava, Hyun soo Kim

[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart; Philadelphia Phillies Payroll Overview]

The Phillies already announced in late September that Pete Mackanin will not return as manager in 2018, but will instead assume a role in the front office. Part of the organization’s focus this offseason will be to find a replacement manager who can get the most out of a very young group of players as they develop at the major-league level. Based on their record after the All-Star break (37-38), it seems as though the worst could finally be behind the Phillies after five consecutive losing seasons. Whoever GM Matt Klentak hires as Mackanin’s replacement will likely be managing the next contending team in Philadelphia.

In addition to steps forward for players like Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Aaron Nola, the Phillies also saw impressive contributions from many players promoted during the 2017 season. Rhys Hoskins, Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams all showed well in their first taste of major-league action, with Hoskins in particular looking like a star. Stud shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford saw some playing time in September as well; it’s widely expected that he and fellow infield top prospect Scott Kingery will make major contributions at some point in 2018. Put simply, a major-league club that saw a lot of success from young players this year will see even more reinforcements next season. It’s also worth wondering whether the Phillies will make a push to extend some of these young players. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already mentioned Nola as an extension candidate. Beyond him, Altherr, Hoskins and Williams have all shown enough talent to be worth a look.

As the youth movement reaches its peak in Philadelphia, the payroll has reached its valley. The only contract on the books for the Phillies in 2018 is that of Herrera, who stands to make just $3.35MM. They owe $3.5MM more in the form of buyouts and debts to former players, for a total of less than $6MM guaranteed dollars. Beyond that, only five of their players are even eligible for arbitration, and most of them are either potential trade fodder or non-tender candidates. Given that the Phillies have averaged over $144MM in payroll over the past seven seasons, a big decisions facing the Phillies this winter is how they ought to allocate their dollars. It’s worth mentioning that they’ve got the payroll space and prospect depth to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, should the organization decide he’s a good fit. It will be interesting to see whether they give out any long-term contracts to free agents this season, or opt to make shorter commitments now and wait until next season when the market is flush with high-end talent. They’ll be one of the few teams who’ll be able to afford the services of 2018 free agent juggernauts like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon, any of whom might be worth waiting to negotiate with.

It’s possible that one or both of Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez will open the 2018 season in a different uniform. Galvis stands to make around $7.4MM in arbitration this offseason. Rather than pay that hefty figure for a shortstop with a .287 career OBP, the Phillies would probably prefer to see what they have in top prospect J.P. Crawford. While Hernandez is still under control for three more seasons, the Phillies will likely try to get a look at Kingery at some point in 2018. This could make Hernandez a potential trade asset as well, if the right offer comes along. With such a minuscule payroll, however, they certainly won’t face any pressure to move either player.

With a high-upside youngster tabbed for each position on the diamond, the Phillies are most likely to concentrate their financial resources on pitching. Their starters as a group finished in the bottom third of baseball in ERA last season, and their young staff could benefit from having a seasoned veteran in the rotation. They have the money to spend on a top-of-the market starter like Jake Arrieta, if the front office wants to be aggressive, or any other open-market hurler that holds appeal. Another option would be to make a big push for the coveted Shohei Otani. Indeed there are 29 other teams that will be doing the same, but the potential to join an organization with such a bright future could be a draw for the Japanese phenom. The Phillies will probably want to add a couple of veteran arms to their bullpen as well. Adam Morgan had an incredible second half and cemented himself as a clear fixture behind Hector Neris, but overall the relief corps is in need of support.

Philadelphia had some success last year in taking on bad contracts, eating the salaries of those players and then flipping them for prospects. They acquired left-hander McKenzie Mills for Howie Kendrick, and got infielder Jose Gomez along with right-handers J.D. Hammer and Alejandro Requena in a trade that sent Pat Neshek to the Rockies. Mills, Gomez and Hammer all currently rank within the Phillies’ top 30 prospects (via MLB Pipeline), with Gomez leading the way at #16 in the organization. In essence, the Phillies used their financial muscle to “buy” some upside prospects. It’s a sound strategy. If any of these prospects pan out, it will be as though the Phillies used their extra payroll space last year to save money in the future; more cost-controlled players on the major league club means fewer dollars spent on free agents. It’s easy to imagine the club employing the same strategy during the coming season.

Following five losing seasons and a complete teardown of the major-league roster, the Phillies’ farm is stacked. Even after promoting three top-100 overall prospects last season in Hoskins, Crawford and Alfaro, their system still has four more in Mickey Moniak, Sixto Sanchez, Adam Haseley and Kingery. They also own the #3 overall pick in 2018’s June amateur draft. This abundance of talent in the minors will give the Phillies a wealth of options when they decide to make a playoff push, including the ability to use some of these youngsters as trade chips to fill holes on the roster with established major league talent.

As it stands right now, the Phillies will open the 2018 season with Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation. Behind Nola, however, likely follows a messy group of struggling youngsters. Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Jake Thompson and Nick Pivetta all endured major ups and downs last season. Even if they don’t manage to add an elite starter like Arrieta through free agency, they’ll probably opt to sign at least one or two mid-tier options. Jason Vargas, Scott Feldman, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner all come to mind as pitchers who could probably be had on short-term contracts.

With veteran Andres Blanco set to depart in free agency, the Phillies will need a backup infielder to open the season. Blanco himself could be brought back at a cheap price, but he performed below replacement level last year. Outside of Kingery, Philadelphia’s farm system doesn’t really have any major league-ready middle infield options. Stephen Drew, Erick Aybar, Danny Espinosa and Eric Sogard are some examples of cheap veterans they could use to fill in around the infield. On the other hand, they might simply opt to make a low-profile minor league signing instead. They could even test their luck with the Rule 5 Draft; they had great success in identifying Herrera in 2014 and could try to strike gold again.

Third baseman Maikel Franco had a tremendously disappointing 2017 campaign, and it might be time to start looking for other long-term options at the hot corner. Mike Moustakas represents the top option on this year’s free agent market. Todd Frazier is another third baseman they could look into. However, since the Phillies would be considered long shots to contend in 2018, they might be better off giving the 25-year old another chance next season, and explore the free agent market next year if he doesn’t bounce back. At that time, superstars Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson will become available for bidding.

The Phillies will be an interesting team to watch this offseason. They have the financial resources to sign big-name free agents and take on a large contract in a trade, but it’s just as easy to imagine them making only small, short term signings while they continue to evaluate high-upside youngsters at the MLB level. Either way, expect the Phillies to improve on their 2017 record next season. With the wealth of young talent in the organization, the club should be on the rise for several years to come.

NL Notes: Dickey, Finnegan, Puig, Marlins

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | October 16, 2017 at 7:26pm CDT

The Braves are still waiting to see where the MLB investigation into international signing violations will lead. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has the latest on that situation, though it’s mostly a holding pattern. O’Brien also notes that his expectation is that veteran righty R.A. Dickey will choose to walk away from the game even if the club intends to pick up his $8MM option. Per O’Brien, it “seemed since he last week of the season that [Dickey] was leaning heavily toward retiring.”

Brad Ausmus Interviews With Red Sox, Is Not Interested In Mets

By Jeff Todd | October 16, 2017 at 4:51pm CDT

Since losing his job as the Tigers skipper a few weeks back, Brad Ausmus has drawn quite a lot of interest from other organizations looking to replace outgoing managers. Ausmus interviewed today with the Red Sox, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald (via Twitter), but has pulled out of the running for the Mets’ job, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.

Boston recently announced that it would move on from manager John Farrell, opening one of the game’s premium posts. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hired Ausmus to his former job in Detroit, leading to immediate speculation about a possible match.

While some believe that others are more likely to earn the position — Alex Cora, in particular, has drawn plenty of attention — there’s obvious reason to suspect that Ausmus will be strongly considered. We have been tracking the early-stage developments in Boston’s search right here.

As for the Mets’ job, it’s interesting to hear that Ausmus has pulled out of the hunt before meeting with the organization or landing elsewhere. New York was said to have real interest in Ausmus, and certainly has a talent-laden roster in spite of an undeniably rough 2017 campaign. Of course, we don’t know just what considerations Ausmus is bringing to bear on the situation; as Heyman notes, he does have particular ties to the broader area surrounding Boston, though New York is the next closest MLB city to that particular region (and is even closer to Ausmus’s hometown of New Haven, Connecticut).

In any event, that leaves New York considering a variety of alternatives. One other notable former MLB skipper that won’t be under consideration, it seems, is former White Sox manager Robin Ventura. He “does not appear to have a strong interest” in the Mets’ job, per Heyman’s report, despite being mentioned as a possible candidate previously. The team’s other candidates (including Cora) are covered in this omnibus post on the search for a Terry Collins replacement.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/16/17

By Steve Adams | October 16, 2017 at 2:31pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

The Angels announced that left-hander Jason Gurka has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Salt Lake. The 29-year-old was designated for assignment when the Halos picked up right-hander Felix Pena from the Cubs. Gurka appeared in just three games for the Angels late in the season, facing only five batters and recording two outs. The former Orioles draftee (15th round, 2008) has seen big league time with the Rockies both in 2015 and in 2016 but has struggled in a small sample in the Majors; through 18 innings, he’s yielded 18 runs on 34 hits and five walks with 14 strikeouts. Gurka does come with a strong track record as a left-handed reliever in Triple-A, where he’s posted a 3.27 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 118 1/3 innings across parts of four seasons.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Steve Adams | October 16, 2017 at 12:57pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

In what most expected to be another transitional season, the Brewers spent much of the year in contention for the NL Central title and finished just shy of an NL Wild Card berth. With an 86-76 record under their belts and a promising core of controllable players, the Brewers will no longer enter the offseason with a “rebuilding” label and will instead likely add pieces with an eye toward winning in 2018 and beyond.

Guaranteed Contracts

Ryan Braun, OF: $57MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 option)
Eric Thames, 1B/OF: $12MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (Service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Jared Hughes (5.162) – $2.2MM projected salary
Carlos Torres (5.114) – $3.3MM
Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
Chase Anderson (3.146) – $5.4MM
Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
Corey Knebel (2.151) – $4.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Torres, Jeffress, Vogt

Free Agents

Neil Walker, Anthony Swarzak, Eric Sogard, Matt Garza

[Milwaukee Brewers Depth Chart | Milwaukee Brewers Payroll Outlook]

General manager David Stearns and his staff caught some flak from Brewers fans this summer for not acting more aggressively to add pieces to a surprising contender. While flipping prospects Ryan Cordell and Eric Hanhold to add a pair of solid veteran rentals (Swarzak and Walker) definitely strengthened the roster, the division-rival Cubs went for broke and shelled out multiple top prospects for Jose Quintana, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. It’s possible that had the Brewers splurged in similar fashion, adding Quintana or Sonny Gray, that they could’ve emerged as the NL Central champs, but Stearns & Co. steadfastly refused to part with top-echelon prospects — most notably center field prospect Lewis Brinson. Now, they’ll spend the offseason looking for long-term help while holding onto the luxury of plugging Brinson and other top prospects into the lineup in the near future.

Starting on the position-player side of the equation, the Brewers made several then-unheralded moves in the 2016-17 offseason that now look to have helped form a solid nucleus. Manny Pina enjoyed a breakout behind the plate and should at the very least be in an even timeshare with Stephen Vogt (or another veteran backstop should Vogt be non-tendered). Eric Thames cooled after a Cinderella start to his comeback season in MLB, but his overall numbers were strong. Jesus Aguilar, a waiver claim out of the Indians organization last winter, gives Thames an affordable platoon partner. Travis Shaw, meanwhile, was deemed expendable by the Red Sox with Rafael Devers on the horizon and instead broke out as one of the NL’s best third basemen after the Brewers acquired him in a December trade.

Top prospect Orlando Arcia showed quite well at shortstop as the season wore on, and the Brewers will return Braun and Domingo Santana as corner outfield options with plenty of pop. (Thames, too, can play some corner outfield.) Keon Broxton saw the bulk of the time in center field in 2017 and could be reinstalled there to open the 2018 season if the Brewers want to play some service time games with Brinson. But center field should go to Brinson by midseason, assuming good health, so it’s possible that the Brewers will look to shop Broxton this summer. His 37 percent strikeout clip is an eyesore, but Broxton has plenty of speed and power, and he handles center field well enough. Brett Phillips gives the Brew Crew another option in center, should they ultimately move Broxton, or he could simply spell Braun, Broxton and Santana in a semi-regular role.

The biggest question mark for the Brewers, then, is at second base. Jonathan Villar had a breakout 2016 season, but the Brewers likely feel as though they dodged a bullet when Villar reportedly rejected a contract extension last offseason. The 26-year-old’s strikeout woes returned stronger than ever in 2017, and he hit just .241/.293/.372 in 436 PAs. Veteran Eric Sogard saw plenty of action at second base as Villar lost playing time, and Walker stepped in and hit well there following his acquisition. With both Walker and Sogard set to hit the open market, the Brewers will need to decide whether they can once again trust Villar or if external reinforcements are needed.

Re-signing Sogard to an affordable one-year deal could provide some insurance, but the Brewers must now also think more like a contender. If there’s an obvious hole to fill, they’ll likely covet more certainty. Milwaukee had interest in Ian Kinsler before the non-waiver deadline, and he’s all but certain to be traded by the Tigers this winter. Re-signing Walker would be more expensive than retaining Sogard, though he’d bring more reliable production. Other free-agent options are fairly thin, though Howie Kendrick and Eduardo Nunez could stabilize the spot. The trade front is more interesting, where Philadelphia’s Cesar Hernandez and Miami’s Dee Gordon will both be available. Gordon is owed $38MM over the next three seasons, but the Brewers can afford to take on some significant financial commitments this winter.

It’s also worth mentioning that Braun’s name figures to once again surface in trade rumors at least occasionally this offseason. However, he’s coming off his worst season since 2014 and has full veto power over any trades (to say nothing of the $57MM he’s still owed through 2020). A deal doesn’t seem particularly likely.

On the pitching front, things are far less clear for the Brewers. Emergent ace Jimmy Nelson will miss a yet-unreported amount of time in 2018 following shoulder surgery. That leaves Chase Anderson and Zach Davies as the two locks for rotation spots. Brent Suter performed well in 14 starts, but he’s averaged just 124 1/3 innings across the past three seasons. Relying on him for 170+ frames would be difficult, but he’ll certainly be in next year’s rotation mix. Righty Brandon Woodruff showed flashes of potential but didn’t cement himself, while Junior Guerra posted terrible numbers in his followup to his out-of-the-blue rookie success at age 31. Touted prospect Josh Hader shined in the bullpen, but the lefty will likely get a look as a starter next year.

The Brewers look as though they’ll need to add at least one established starter, and making a second, smaller-scale addition wouldn’t be unwise. One glance at the “guaranteed contracts” section above is evidence that they could afford to spend as aggressively as they wish this offseason, though the team’s lower payroll ceiling creates less margin for error when shelling out cash to a Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. Second-tier names like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn seem much more plausible, though their last foray into that price range (Garza) didn’t pan out.

Alternatively, the Brewers have an exceptionally deep farm — deep enough that they can acquire both one-year rentals and more controllable options. Given the Brewers’ questionable on-paper rotation, relatively blank payroll slate and wealth of prospects, there are literally dozens of scenarios on which to potentially speculate. Suffice it to say — they’ll be connected to a plethora of arms this winter.

The Milwaukee bullpen brings a bit more clarity. Corey Knebel broke out as one of the game’s most dominant relievers, posting baseball’s fourth-highest strikeout percentage and second-highest K/9 rate in 2017. His walk rate is still troublesome, but Knebel functioned as a genuinely elite bullpen weapon in his record-setting 2017 season (most consecutive relief appearances with at least one strikeout). If Hader isn’t in the rotation, he’ll be back in the bullpen, pairing with Knebel to create a formidable duo. Jacob Barnes and Jared Hughes should return as additional right-handed options. Jeffress is a fan favorite in Milwaukee and showed improvement after returning in a July 31 trade, but his overall output makes less certain to be brought back. I’d still expect him to be tendered, though perhaps at a lower rate than the projected $2.6MM sum, as our algorithm doesn’t factor in context such as Jeffress’ off-the-field issues.

Swarzak was terrific after being acquired from the White Sox, so a potential reunion with him is something the Brewers will surely explore. Milwaukee also needs to add at least one left-handed reliever — if not two, depending on what happens with Hader. The Brewers were without a southpaw reliever for much of the year and certainly would prefer to have greater matchup flexibility in 2018 and beyond. Tyler Webb is one intriguing internal option, and the free-agent market bears names such as Jake McGee, Brian Duensing and Tony Watson. As ever, the trade market will be rife with options in this department, though Brad Hand stands out as the likeliest name to be bandied about on the rumor mill this winter.

An oft-overlooked component of the offseason among fans is the possibility of extending core pieces. While many focus on what pieces can be added to a contending core (or shipped off of a rebuilding roster), the Brewers are in a strong position to obtain some cost certainty and perhaps some additional club control over long-term cornerstones. After trying to do with Villar last winter, they’ll likely try once again with other targets as Spring Training nears in 2018. Arcia, Shaw and Davies all make sense as candidates for a long-term pact. Anderson does as well, to a lesser extent. He’s already controlled through his age-32 season, but the club could try to buy out his arbitration years in one fell swoop and possibly tack on a club option over his age-33 season in exchange for the up-front payday. As a late bloomer, he could be more amenable to that type deal than some younger arms would be.

The Brewers enter the 2017-18 offseason with a sizable portion of a contending club already in place, though they’ll still need to make some adjustments — most notably at second base and on the pitching staff. Their unexpected status as contenders in 2017 has undoubtedly accelerated their timeline to contention, though, and their deep stash of prospects and pristine long-term payroll ledger should give Stearns and his charges plenty of opportunities to creatively supplement a roster that roster that looks infinitely better than it did one year ago at this time.

Reds’ GM On Cozart, Young Players, Rebuild

By Steve Adams | October 16, 2017 at 11:22am CDT

Reds president of baseball operations and general manager Dick Williams sat down with C. Trent Rosecrans and Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer for an excellent, lengthy Q&A covering a number of topics pertaining to the Reds’ upcoming offseason and ongoing rebuild.

Of most interest, perhaps, was the fact that Williams was straightforward in stating that he planned to “continue to talk” to Zack Cozart about the possibility of re-signing the shortstop. The 32-year-old Cozart is up for free agency for the first time in his career, and while his age might not necessarily align with the rebuilding Reds’ timeline to contend, he’s one of the team’s longest-tenured players and is fresh off a career year at the plate. In 507 plate appearances, he hit .297/.385/.548 with a career-high 24 homers and a dramatically improved walk rate (to say nothing of his typically excellent glovework at shortstop).

The Reds will face a tough decision on Cozart, who seems to at the very least be a candidate for a $17.4MM qualifying offer. (MLBTR readers were split about 55-45 in favor of the Reds giving him a QO in early September.) If Cozart isn’t retained, though, it doesn’t sound as if the Reds’ top priority would be to delve into the free-agent or trade markets to attempt to replace him.

“[T]he primary candidate would be (Jose) Peraza,” said Williams when discussing a replacement for Cozart, if needed. “We believe that he showed at the end of ’16 with an extended look that this is a young, athletic, talented player. He’s still one of the youngest guys on our roster. … This year, we really asked him to move around a decent amount. I think that made it a little tougher on him than if he settled in at one spot.”

Peraza is, as Williams suggests, still somewhat of a work in progress. Although he’s spent the bulk of the past two seasons in the Major Leagues, Peraza won’t even turn 24 until April 30 of next year. The former top 100 prospect demonstrated a good deal of promise with an impressive .324/.352/.411 batting line and 21 steals in 72 games last year, but he struggled for the majority of the 2017 campaign before turning things around in the season’s last couple of months. In Peraza’s final 48 games (31 starts), he batted .293/.361/.338 with just 18 strikeouts in 149 plate appearances.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart and payroll outlook]

Williams did go on to state that while he believes Eugenio Suarez to be capable of playing shortstop, he likes Suarez at third base and would like to have two additional players on the roster that can handle shortstop regularly. Conceivably, that could mean a re-signed Cozart and Peraza, or Peraza and a veteran bench option with experience at the shortstop position as well.

More broadly, Williams didn’t reject the notion that top prospect and former No. 2 overall pick Nick Senzel could play in the Majors next season, though it doesn’t sound as if the team will rush him out of Spring Training. Senzel, according to Williams, is capable of playing second, third, shortstop and perhaps even the outfield corners, but the team is reluctant to bounce him around the diamond too much. Second base seems to be a position at which he’ll get a look, as the Reds have Suarez thriving at the hot corner presently.

Senzel raked at a .321/.391/.514 clip in 507 PAs between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last year, mashing his way through the Southern League to the point that many expect him to begin the 2018 season in Triple-A. Scooter Gennett, of course, gives the team another option at second base, though with just two years of club control remaining, I’d imagine that the Reds wouldn’t have many qualms about ultimately moving him if and when Senzel proves ready (though that’s just my own speculation).

Williams also spoke at length about the struggles of several of the Reds’ young pitchers in 2017, noting the lack of innings most of the team’s young starters were able to log in Triple-A. Injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan and Homer Bailey forced Cincinnati to tap into its reservoir of young pitchers more often than the team would’ve liked. Jesse Winker is also discussed quite a bit, with Williams hinting that he’s intrigued by Winker’s high-OBP skill set as a potential top-of-the-order option. Just 24 years old, Winker hit .298/.375/.529 with seven homers, a 10.9 percent walk rate and a 17.5 percent strikeout rate in 137 big league plate appearances.

While no one should expect the Reds to shell out top dollar in free agency this winter, the GM does suggest that he’ll have some money to spend and that the team’s list of targets is a broad one, including some players looking to move from Japan over to the Major League (and more than just the highly publicized Shohei Otani). The entire Q&A is (obviously) stuffed with quotes from Cincinnati’s top baseball ops executive and is well worth a full read for Reds fans and non-Reds fans alike. Williams gives plenty of insight into where he feels the team is at in its rebuild, his own thoughts on his first year as a general manager and the team’s approach in the upcoming offseason.

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