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Yankees Activate James Paxton

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As anticipated, the Yankees have activated lefty James Paxton to start today’s game. The team had previously optioned righty Joe Harvey to open a roster spot.

Paxton had been sidelined since early May with a left knee injury. He’s still not quite at full health, as Zach Braziller of the New York Post was among those to report, but it seems the assessment is that he won’t be putting himself at risk of greater injury by returning to the mound. Paxton will be activated without making a rehab appearance.

The 30-year-old hurler turned in seven strong outings to open his Yankees career, working to a 3.11 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 13 walks in 37 2/3 frames. He was in dominating form, sitting comfortably in the mid-nineties with his fastball and generating swings and misses with 14.1% of his pitches.

Paxton’s return is an unquestionable boon to the Bronx Bombers, not that they have seemed in particular need of help. The club has more than weathered an injury barrage, moving into first-place position in the AL East.

Staying ahead of the Rays and Red Sox won’t come easy. Getting Paxton back into the rotation will help, though the rotation still figures to be an area to target for improvement over the summer. J.A. Happ has struggled to open the year, while Jonathan Loaisiga, CC Sabathia, and Luis Severino are all presently on the injured list.

AL West Notes: Leclerc, Gallo, Trout, Upton

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The Rangers will deploy reliever Jose Leclerc as an opener in today’s game, the club announced. He’ll throw in front of Drew Smyly. The 25-year-old Leclerc will open for the second time this year. He entered the campaign as the indisputable closer after inking an extension over the winter, but lost that job when his prior control problems resurfaced. It seems the Rangers are looking to provide some stability for the live-armed hurler, who has dealt with minor shoulder and calf issues recently. Otherwise, he has been much more impressive of late, with a whopping 16:1 K/BB ratio in his last seven frames.

More from the AL West:

  • Though he departed last night’s game with wrist soreness, Rangers slugger Joey Gallo doesn’t seem to be at any risk of a trip to the injured list. As Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports, Gallo will get a day of rest today. That had already been planned, says Texas skipper Chris Woodward. Even as he has ramped up his offensive productivity by boosting his walk rate and continuing to launch prodigious long balls, Gallo has stretched his legs in the field. He has graded as a clear positive at all three outfield positions in recent seasons, though he had never before been utilized exclusively on the grass and had limited experience in center field. That modified deployment might itself warrant a few added days off to keep Gallo fresh over the course of the season.
  • The Angels seemingly dodged a bullet when superstar Mike Trout wore a foul ball off his foot. Though he’s dealing with some soreness, he says there’s no fracture, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. The L.A. organization needed a break — of the other kind — after watching Andrelton Simmons hit the shelf, followed in short order by Zack Cozart.
  • In other Halos health news, outfielder Justin Upton suggested a return from his turf toe injury is now within sight, as Fletcher reports. Though Upton cited a three-week target, that may be on the optimistic side. He’ll still need to don his cleats and run at full tilt, then complete a rehab assignment, without any recurring issues.
  • In case you missed the late-night news, Mariners infielder J.P. Crawford appears to be headed to the injured list  after suffering an ankle injury in last night’s contest.

Red Sox Bullpen Facing Renewed Questions

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It’s easy to overreact to bullpen implosions, particularly when they cost a team a seemingly surefire lead. Last night’s meltdown at Fenway not only cost the Red Sox a win, but played to some of the major fears entering the season.

As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, the collapse against a tepid Indians lineup featured messy appearances from Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden, and Travis Lakins. While Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes weren’t charged with any runs, they didn’t really help with the ugliest stat line to emerge from the evening: the Boston pen recorded just one strikeout against seven walks.

The bullpen was the source of much consternation when camp broke. In particular, many worried about the failure to add established arms to a late-inning unit that bid adieu to closer Craig Kimbrel.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in reviewing the club’s offseason efforts, the “nightmare scenario” some posited was an overreaction. But he also noted that the decision not to bring in additional high-leverage arms — which would also have deepened the middle relief unit — was a “risky strategy.” After all, Polishuk reasoned, “settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox” in a tight division race.

Every win matters, and it’d always be preferable to have another elite arm to call upon. But after observing the Boston relief unit for one-third of the season, it’s hard to call it a problem. Combined, the group carries a solid 3.92 ERA that ranks in the top third leaguewide. Fielding-independent pitching metrics concur with that general placement.

Have things gotten worse of late? The unit has recorded as many blown saves in the past two weeks (4) as have the Nationals, but other teams have more and that’s not necessarily a worthwhile metric to go by in evaluating overall bullpen health. Despite grading in the middle of the pack on the season, Sox relievers have suddenly become walk-happy over the past two weeks with a league-worst 13.3% BB rate. Still, that seems like a short-sample blip. Overall results have actually ticked up over the past month, with the relief corps combining for a 3.21 ERA.

If a true, overarching issue has cropped up it may relate to Ryan Brasier. Expected to function as a core part of the high-leverage group after last year’s surprise emergence, Brasier has fallen on hard times of late. As Speier notes, the righty has been tagged for five long balls in his last 22 2/3 innings of action. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com looked further at Brasier’s struggles.

But even if Brasier has stepped back, the Red Sox have seen others emerge. Barnes has doubled down on his strong 2018 season. Though he’s allowing too many walks, Workman has done the same, carrying stepped-up swinging-strike and strikeout numbers. And Walden has been excellent in his first full season in the majors, with a pleasing mix of K’s and grounders to support a 2.05 ERA.

To be sure, the remainder of the outfit isn’t as strong, but that’s a nice trio. Heath Hembree has been useful and Brasier still holds out hope of a bounceback. The team’s rotating cast of other relief pitchers has yet to find sustained success, but that’s a common issue around the league.

It’s certainly not difficult to see the merits of a mid-season acquisition or two. But really, who didn’t see that coming for a team that obviously prioritized other areas in the offseason? What’s more surprising is that the assembled group has performed so well for such a sustained stretch. Most any relief unit will produce moments like last night; plenty of others haven’t been capable of the sturdy results produced to this point by Boston’s hurlers.

Better still, further improvement might be found without a budget or farm-busting move for a high-end closer. The one area where the righty-heavy Sox have clearly struggled is in retiring opposing left-handed hitters. The relief unit has been tagged for a 5.31 ERA and 1.70 HR/9 by southpaw batters. Adding even one quality situational lefty could help smooth out this bump and make it easier for skipper Alex Cora to get the ball to his most reliable relievers in the late innings.

Cubs Injury Updates: Bryant, Baez, Strop, Montgomery

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There are a variety of open health issues for the Cubs, though thankfully it seems most are heading in a generally positive direction. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times rounded up the latest updates.

Kris Bryant and Javy Baez aren’t far from returning to the Cubs infield. The former has been out of the lineup for two games after a collision, while the latter has been in the DH slot to help rest a minor heel injury. Both could get back to their regular duties as soon as today.

Keeping those star players healthy is all the more important with Ben Zobrist’s status in question. Still, the Cubs have ample infield/utility depth, particularly with Addison Russell joining a roster that already included David Bote and Daniel Descalso. It’s worth remembering that Ian Happ remains marooned at Triple-A, as well.

With some recent bullpen hiccups, it’s also notable that reliever Pedro Strop is on the mend and nearing activation. He seems to be on the fast track back now that his hamstring is back in good working order. Strop made it through a rehab appearance last night and will work another frame Thursday. Wittenmyer says that the veteran hurler could be activated thereafter.

Strop had served as the Cubs closer before he went down. Whether he’ll take that job back from Steve Cishek remains to be seen. Regardless, it’s good news for the depth of the late-inning mix.

There was also a positive update on the team’s most flexible hurler, swingman Mike Montgomery. He was unable to pitch in Monday’s contest due to a finger issue that arose while he warmed up. The southpaw says he was likely dealing with a popped blood vessel, but wasn’t bothered as much when he picked up a ball yesterday. It’s not clear precisely when he’ll be available, but it seems reasonable to hope for a rather speedy return.

Miguel Cabrera’s Power Is MIA

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It’s no surprise this has been a lean year for the rebuilding Tigers, who sit near the bottom of the majors at 20-32 through two months. A team can still be entertaining even if it’s not good enough to contend, but the Tigers have largely failed in that respect. If you like offense, you should probably avoid watching Detroit. The Tigers rank second to last in the majors in runs (180) and wRC+ (74), leading only the Marlins in those categories, while they’re better than just the Fish and the Giants in OPS (.658).

Part of the Tigers’ problem has been the sharp decline of future Hall of Fame first baseman Miguel Cabrera, whose long-running days as a force may be gone. With a .294/.368/.369 line, Cabrera’s one of just two qualified hitters on this year’s Tigers with a wRC+ of 100 (league average), but that’s not saying much in his case. After all, Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters ever, a former Triple Crown winner and the owner of a magnificent .316/.394/.547 slash with 2,730 hits and 467 home runs across 9,895 plate appearances. He also boasts a 148 wRC+ that ranks 32nd in the history of the game.

After debuting with the aforementioned Marlins as a 20-year-old wunderkind in 2003, Cabrera became a perennial 30-home run threat and has since hit at least that many in 10 seasons. The right-hander blasted 38 HRs in 2016, which is looking more and more like the final high-power season he’ll ever have. Cabrera notched 16 in 529 trips to the plate in 2017 and then three in an injury-shortened, 157-PA campaign last season.

Through 212 PA this year, his age-36 season, Cabrera has added a meager two HRs to his ledger. Perhaps of greater concern, Cabrera possesses the majors’ third-lowest ISO (.075), bettering only two members of the Marlins’ dreary offense – Miguel Rojas and Starlin Castro – in that category. Even though Cabrera’s .149 mark from 2017-18 was between 12 and 22 points below league average in those seasons, it looks appealing compared to where he stands nowadays. What’s alarming is that there’s not much evidence to suggest Cabrera is due for an enormous turnaround. Given that Cabrera’s one of the game’s slowest runners, it’s unlikely his .371 batting BABIP will stick around and continue to help prop up his batting average. And while Cabrera’s expected weighted on-base average (.336) does outpace his real mark (.322), it’s closer to middle of the pack than exceptional.

On one hand, it seems unwise to shovel dirt on the career of a two-time MVP and 11-time All-Star. It’s quite possible, though, that age has reduced Cabrera to an unspectacular offensive player who’s neither all that valuable in the field nor on the bases. That sounds a lot like the Angels’ Albert Pujols, a baseball luminary who has become a replacement-level player (or worse) in recent seasons.

Pujols’ enormous contract – a 10-year, $240MM albatross that runs through 2021 – has weighed the Angels down during his decline phase and will continue to do so until it expires. Detroit may be in the same position with Cabrera, whom it signed to an eight-year, $248MM extension entering the 2014 season. Cabrera will make a $30MM salary through 2021 and $32MM between 2022-23 before the Tigers buy him out for $8MM (in lieu of a $30MM club option) going into 2024. But Cabrera may already be amid an irreversible downward spiral with $151MM left on his deal, which is a horrifying possibility for the Tigers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: Reds, Orioles

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A couple minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Reds have released outfielder Zeek White, according to Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeagues.com and RedlegNation.com. White had been with the Reds since they acquired him (and a right-hander named Luis Castillo) in a package for righty Dan Straily in January 2017. Two years before that, the Marlins used a third-round pick (No. 85) on White. Although he was a fairly high pick in his draft class, the 22-year-old White hasn’t been able to work his way past the Single-A level.
  • The Orioles have signed Cuban infielder Yorkislandy Alvarez, Francys Romero of Las Mayores tweets. Alvarez, who’s now 20, left the under-18 Cuban team in Montreal in 2017 and later moved on to Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, per Romero. Other than that, there is little to no information available on him.

Astros Get “Encouraging” News On Injured Jose Altuve

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Injured Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is dealing with fatigue and soreness in his right leg, though it doesn’t appear to be a major issue. The Astros received “encouraging” news after evaluating Altuve on Tuesday, according to manager A.J. Hinch. However, Altuve’s going to need time to “strengthen his lower half,” per Hinch. Altuve added he hopes to return to the diamond “pretty soon” (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

The 29-year-old Altuve has been on the 10-day IL since May 11 because of a problem with his other leg – a left hamstring strain – but looked as if he’d be able to return by Wednesday before this setback occurred. Now, though, it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to come back. Altuve underwent surgery on his right knee last October. Between that and Altuve’s importance to the Astros, who signed the six-time All-Star to a five-year, $151MM extension in March 2018, they’re inclined to take a cautious approach in this situation.

Even with Altuve and George Springer on the IL (and the banged-up Carlos Correa out Monday), the loaded Astros have continued to roll over their competition. They beat the Cubs on Monday to move to 13-4 since Altuve went down. Houston now boasts an elite 37-19 record and a seven-game lead over white-hot Oakland in the AL West.

Latest On Ben Zobrist

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The Cubs have been without utilityman Ben Zobrist since May 8 because of a personal matter. Three weeks later, they remain unsure whether Zobrist will return this season, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Teammates and manager Joe Maddon are among those lamenting the respected Zobrist’s absence, as detailed in Wittenmyer’s piece. Asked if Zobrist won’t come back in 2019, Maddon admitted, “I have to think that way, absolutely,” adding the Cubs must “mentally be prepared” that his season is over. Even if Zobrist does return, Maddon noted that “it’s going to take him a while to get back up to speed.”

Zobrist is in the last season of his contract with the Cubs, who signed him to a four-year, $56MM pact entering the 2016 campaign. He’s on a $12MM salary this year, but it’s unclear if Zobrist is collecting that money while he’s on the restricted list. This season’s issues notwithstanding, the contract has worked out swimmingly for the Cubs.

The switch-hitting, multi-positional Zobrist was one of the Cubs’ most valuable players from 2016-18, including when he helped the team to its first World Series title since 1908 in the initial season of the deal. The 38-year-old got off to a rough start on the field this season before going on leave, however, and now it’s unknown whether he’ll suit up for the Cubs again.

Anibal Sanchez To Return Wednesday

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The Nationals will activate right-hander Anibal Sanchez from the 10-day injured list to start against the Braves on Wednesday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Washington will make a corresponding move when Sanchez’s return becomes official.

Sanchez went to the IL with a hamstring strain May 17, the day after the injury forced him into a quick exit in a start against the Mets. The IL placement was the latest less-than-ideal development of the season for the 35-year-old Sanchez, who revived his career with the Braves in 2018. Sanchez’s success in Atlanta led the Nationals to hand him a two-year, $19MM guarantee in free agency.

Two months into Sanchez’s deal, the move hasn’t worked out for the slumping Nats. Sanchez has taken the ball for nine starts and pitched to a below-average 5.10 ERA/4.79 FIP in that 42 1/3-inning span. While Sanchez has struck out just under a batter per inning so far, his walk rate has offset that. Sanchez walked under three per nine last year, but he’s at 5.31 this season. Moreover, his groundball rate has plummeted from 45 percent to 31.5.

At 23-32, the Nationals may be the most disappointing team in the game, but there’s arguably enough talent on hand for the club to get back in the race. Of course, it would help for Sanchez to better resemble the pitcher he was last year upon his return. In doing so, he’d give Washington a solid complement to the all-world Max Scherzer–Stephen Strasburg–Patrick Corbin trio. The Nationals haven’t been able to find any solutions behind them this season, though Erick Fedde did just enjoy a two-start, 10-inning, one-run stretch. Like Sanchez, fellow offseason free-agent signing Jeremy Hellickson has stumbled after a bounce-back 2018. Hellickson went to the IL on May 20 with a shoulder strain.

Draft Retrospection: Dodgers Steal A Superstar

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It was June 2013, six years ago, that the Dodgers secured one of the greatest draft steals in recent memory. In the fourth round, with the 124th overall pick, the Dodgers chose an Arizona high school first baseman/pitcher named Cody Bellinger. Although Bellinger’s the son of a former big leaguer, ex-Yankees and Angels infielder/outfielder Clay Bellinger, that didn’t make him a slam dunk to turn into a contributor at the MLB level.

Scouts were somewhat bullish on Bellinger at the time of his drafting, though, with some likening him to former major league first baseman Adam LaRoche (via Baseball America). Although LaRoche had a better and longer career than most, it’s obvious Bellinger has blown by him two-plus seasons into his career. In fact, Bellinger already has a superior lifetime fWAR to LaRoche (11.9 to 11.5) despite having amassed almost 5,000 fewer plate appearances.

Even though he didn’t come off the board near the very top of his draft class, Bellinger developed into one of the game’s 100 best prospects and immediately made good on the hype in the bigs. Los Angeles promoted Bellinger in April 2017, a season in which he saw extensive action at two positions – first base and left field – and wound up taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors.

Bellinger slashed .267/.352/.581 (138 wRC+) in his inaugural season, smacked the majors’ fifth-most home runs (39) and stole 10 bases. While Bellinger wasn’t as effective in 2018, he still recorded a solidly above-average line of .260/.343/.470 (120 wRC+) with another 25 homers and 14 steals.

Had the 23-year-old Bellinger showed up this season and been the same type of producer he was in 2018, the Dodgers likely would have been satisfied. Instead, through two months, he has looked like a bona fide superstar and the No. 1 challenger to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich. With an astounding .363/.469/.761 slash, Bellinger easily ranks first in wRC+ (216), outpacing the second-place Yelich (188) by 28 points and baseball deity Mike Trout (172) by 44. Yelich does have a two-home run lead on Bellinger (21-19), but the latter has clearly been the more valuable player by Wins Above Replacement (5.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR to 2.9/3.0).

Are Bellinger’s otherworldly offensive numbers sustainable? Perhaps not, as it’s hard to keep up a 1.200-plus OPS all season unless you’re Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Horsnby, Jimmie Foxx or another legend along those lines. But the strides Bellinger has made are very real. He has slashed his strikeout rate to 13.8 percent, down 10.1 percent from 2018, while increasing his walk rate from 10.9 to 14.3. He’s also hitting way more line drives and far fewer ground balls, making much more contact, whiffing less and chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in previous years. Meanwhile, Statcast credits the lefty-swinging Bellinger with the game’s top-ranked expected weighted on-base average (.504) – which is somehow better than his .500 real wOBA.

Adding to Bellinger’s appeal, he’s hardly an offense-only player. While it’s tough to get too exited about two months of defensive data, it’s similarly difficult not to raise eyebrows over his fielding numbers. In 46 games in right field this season, Bellinger has already put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating. He ranks top three among all outfielders in those categories. As Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions noted last week, Bellinger’s left arm has been his greatest asset in the field. He fired the cannon on multiple occasions Sunday to stonewall Mets base runners.

With this year’s draft nearing, Bellinger’s rise is an important one to keep in mind. Aside from Cubs great Kris Bryant and arguably the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Bellinger has outdone every first-round pick from his draft class. They each went anywhere from 91 to 123 choices before Bellinger, but he may soon follow Bryant in becoming the class’ second MVP. More importantly for the Dodgers, who continue to fire on all cylinders, the player they once used a mere fourth-rounder on could end up as the face of a World Series winner as early as this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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