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East Notes: Lynn, Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Red Sox

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The Orioles had talks over the winter with then-free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, who finally exited the market Saturday when he agreed to sign with the Twins. Lynn ended up with a one-year, $12MM pact, but he perhaps could have gotten a longer deal in Baltimore. The Orioles may have been willing to give Lynn either three guaranteed years or two with a vesting option, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Lynn would have been the third (and likely the best) starter to sign with the Orioles in recent weeks. They previously added Andrew Cashner and re-signed Chris Tillman. There remains room for improvement, which general manager Dan Duquette realizes. “We need to find some answers to our pitching staff,” Duquette admitted to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com as part of a Q&A that’s worth reading in full. While Duquette noted that “it’s getting kind of late in the spring training period for pitchers to get ready,” he’s nonetheless not ruling out adding another starter in free agency or via trade.

More from the East Coast…

  • The Rays aren’t exactly known for throwing money around, but they could find themselves in position to spend next winter, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times observes. Part of that will depend on whether some of their top prospects, including Willy Adames and Jake Bauers, emerge as hoped. If they do, and if the Rays retain Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier, they could have most of their roster in place for around $40MM, Topkin estimates, thus creating the possibility for some notable additions.
  • The only sure bets to crack the Marlins’ season-opening rotation are Dan Straily and Jose Urena, leaving 10 candidates for three spots, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. “It could go down to the wire,” manager Don Mattingly said of the crowded race. Spencer goes on to highlight all 10 candidates, including prospect Sandy Alcantara – whom the Marlins acquired in their Marcell Ozuna trade with the Cardinals over the winter.
  • Former Mariners starter Roenis Elias has become somewhat of an afterthought since the Red Sox acquired him prior to 2016, but the left-hander could reemerge this year out of the bullpen. Elias is now working as a reliever, owing in part to a newfound commitment to using a sidearm delivery against same-sided hitters, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald. The only lefty reliever on Boston’s projected roster is Robby Scott, which could help give Elias a path back to the majors. After appearing in 51 games and making 49 starts from 2014-15 in Seattle, with which he pitched to a 3.97 ERA across 279 innings, Elias has only thrown eight frames in two years with the Red Sox. The 29-year-old spent nearly all of 2016-17 with Triple-A Pawtucket.

Twins Release Anibal Sanchez

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The Twins will release right-hander Anibal Sanchez, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune reports on Twitter. Sanchez’s 40-man roster spot will go to fellow righty Lance Lynn, whom the Twins added on a one-year, $12MM deal Saturday.

The Twins brought Sanchez aboard less than a month ago, signing him to a split contract that could have been worth $2.5MM had he made their roster. Minnesota then went on to acquire both Jake Odorizzi and Lynn, making Sanchez superfluous in the team’s opinion. The Twins will now have to pay Sanchez $417K in termination pay, which would have risen to $625K had they waited until Monday to cut him, Miller tweets.

While Sanchez has been a terrific starter for the majority of his career, which began in 2006 with the Marlins, the 34-year-old is clearly on the downside. Sanchez is coming off three straight subpar seasons with one of the Twins’ division rivals, the Tigers, and was hoping to reemerge as a viable starter in Minnesota.

Most recently, Sanchez tossed 105 1/3 big league innings in 2017, which he divided between the Tigers’ rotation and bullpen (28 appearances, 17 starts), and logged an ugly 6.41 ERA despite quality strikeout and walk rates (8.89 K/9, 2.48 BB/9). The Tigers then bought Sanchez out for $5MM in lieu of picking up his $16MM option for 2018.

Quick Hits: CBA, Moustakas, Boras, Braun, Nats

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The fact that third baseman Mike Moustakas had to settle for a $6.5MM guarantee in free agency is the latest sign that the owners defeated the players in winter 2016 CBA negotiations, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America opines. In accepting the Royals’ offer, reportedly the only one he received from any team in his four months on the open market, Moustakas took a pay cut from his 2017 salary ($8.7MM) after belting 38 home runs and accounting for 2.2 fWAR. He also ended up with far less than he’d have gotten had he said yes to the Royals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer in November. In December, long before Moustakas signed, now-Angels right-hander/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani emigrated from Japan. In order to join the Angels, the two-way sensation had to take a relatively inexpensive bonus and agree to be under team control for six years. That was yet another result of a CBA that Cooper sees as clearly being in the owners’ favor. The CBA isn’t due to expire until December 2021, meaning the owners could be in the catbird seat for a while longer, but Cooper argues that they should make some good-faith concessions to improve their relationship with the union. For one, they should do away with making clubs give up draft picks to sign qualified free agents (Moustakas was a victim of that), Cooper contends.

  • As you’d expect, Moustakas’ rep, Scott Boras, isn’t pleased with how free agency unfolded for his client. Boras told reporters, including Rustin Dodd of The Athletic (subscription required), on Saturday: “Our system has failed. We always want demand for the best. This is about players, players who are excellent, players who are All-Stars, and Moose has delivered in all.” The high-powered agent added that “it’s become something other than the best players playing baseball at the highest level for the best teams.” The past few months have been a mixed bag for Boras, who arguably hasn’t worked quite as much magic as usual. Clients Eric Hosmer (eight years, $144MM) and J.D. Martinez (five years, $110MM) have landed two of the three biggest contracts since last season ended, but Moustakas, Carlos Gonzalez (one year, $8MM) and Carlos Gomez (one year, $4MM) didn’t sign for nearly as much as hoped. What’s more, Jake Arrieta and Greg Holland continue to languish in free agency as the regular season nears.
  • Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy is progressing in his recovery from October knee surgery, though it’s not yet clear whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, per Jamal Collier of MLB.com. Murphy took batting practice for the first time this year on Saturday, after which he said he didn’t experience any discomfort. The 32-year-old also fielded 15 to 20 ground balls Saturday, but “he has not graduated to lateral movements,” Collier writes, and has only run on a treadmill to this point. Overall, though, Murphy believes he’s “responding really well.”
  • Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun’s attempt to play first base this spring isn’t going all that smoothly, even though it has been “enjoyable,” he explained Saturday (via the Associated Press). “I definitely don’t feel comfortable at all,” the 34-year-old admitted. “I’m doing the best I can with it. Guys have to make sacrifices. I think ultimately if we want to get to where we want to get as a team, based on the roster we’ve put together, it obviously helps make us a better team if I’m able to play multiple positions.” Interestingly, Braun added that because of the bending and squatting that are required for playing first, his new position has been “a lot harder” on his back than lining up in the outfield. Braun’s back issued contributed to his abbreviated campaign in 2017 (104 games), and with Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich now on hand in the Brewers’ outfield, playing first could help get him and other Brewers outfielders more at-bats this year. That’s if he’s able to hold up from a health standpoint, of course.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: JDM, Moose, Lincecum, Cards, O’s, Tribe

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Yankees Notes: Second Base, Frazier, Ellsbury, Rotation

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The latest on the Yankees:

  • New York’s second base battle is likely down to Gleyber Torres, Tyler Wade and Danny Espinosa, as Jace Peterson and Ronald Torreyes haven’t gotten enough reps this spring to realistically end up with the job, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com posits. Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated he could wait until the end of spring to name a starter. The 23-year-old Wade dealt with an injury scare to his left wrist Saturday, but it seems he avoided any serious issues, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays.
  • Concussed young outfielder Clint Frazier isn’t recovering as quickly as hoped (via Hoch). Frazier, who suffered the injury Feb. 24, revealed Saturday the concussion is “affecting my driving,” and he’s even “calling my cats the wrong names at times. But they look the same, so it’s hard.” Added Frazier, 23, “I’m not reacting as quickly to things.” But Frazier’s statements came after some light baseball activities, when Yankees general manager Brian Cashman “said symptoms are particularly heightened,” Marc Carig of The Athletic writes (subscription required).  “It probably puts him at a disadvantage, to be honest,” Cashman contended.
  • While Frazier looked like a long shot to earn a spot on the outfielder-loaded Yankees even before his injury, that’s not the case for center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who will make the team if healthy. But Ellsbury isn’t a certainty for Opening Day because of a right oblique injury, according to Cashman (via Hoch). Injury troubles aren’t anything new for Ellsbury, who sat out a combined 115 games during a disappointing first three years with the Yankees (including 50 in 2017). When healthy, Ellsbury is likely the Yankees’ No. 5 outfielder, behind Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks. That’s despite having upward of $68MM left on his contract.
  • No real surprise, but the Yankees are opening the season with left-hander Jordan Montgomery as their fifth starter, Boone announced Friday (per George A. King III of the New York Post). As was the case last year, Montgomery will slot in after Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray and C.C. Sabathia. That means right-hander Chad Green, whom the Yankees were considering for a starting role, will continue as a reliever. Green was utterly dominant out of the bullpen in 2017, when he recorded a 1.83 ERA with 13.43 K/9 and 2.22 BB/9 over 69 innings. Montgomery wasn’t nearly that effective, but he was quite respectable as a rookie nonetheless, with a 3.88 ERA and 8.34 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9 across 155 1/3 frames.

Central Notes: Moose, Duffy, Royals, Twins, Lynn, Brewers, Reds

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Before he re-signed with the Royals on Thursday, third baseman Mike Moustakas did not receive any other offers during his lengthy stay on the free agent market, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The Angels reportedly offered Moustakas a three-year, $45MM contract, but that’s not the case, according to Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). It was an especially difficult trip to free agency for the 29-year-old Moustakas, who will make $5.5MM – $3.2MM less than last season – despite enjoying one of his best campaigns in 2017. Moustakas discussed his time on the market Saturday, telling Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com and other reporters that it was “frustrating.” Nevertheless, “it feels great” to be back with the Royals, he said.

More from KC and the majors’ Central divisions:

  • The Twins agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Lance Lynn on Saturday, but they were willing to make a greater commitment to the ex-Cardinal during the winter. Minnesota offered Lynn a tw0-year pact then, per Nightengale (Twitter link). As with Moustakas, it was a shockingly underwhelming trek to free agency for Lynn, whose new accord guarantees him $12MM – far less than anticipated when free agency opened in November.
  • The Brewers were extremely active in upgrading their outfield during the offseason, as they added the star-caliber twosome of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. General manager David Stearns arguably didn’t do enough to bolster the team’s starting staff, on the other hand, having only signed the fairly cheap trio of Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo and early spring success story Wade Miley. But Stearns seems largely content with the Brewers’ rotation options, he tells Richard Justice of MLB.com. “Because we don’t have a lot of names in our rotation, I think it’s easy to forget that our starting rotation was the strength of our team last year,” Stearns said. “One of the main reasons we got where we got was because of how good our starting rotation was, especially the second half, and all those guys are still here.” Milwaukee’s rotation was indeed among the league’s best in 2017 (eighth in fWAR, 10th in ERA), though that was thanks largely to emergent ace Jimmy Nelson, who will miss the first couple months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
  • There has been “brisk” trade interest in left-hander Danny Duffy, a Royals official tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo expects interest in Duffy to increase, though he writes that Kansas City wants “major prospects” back for the 29-year-old. That’s not surprising from Kansas City’s perspective, as Duffy is arguably its best trade chip. Duffy, whom the Royals extended in 2017, is under contract through 2021 at a reasonable total ($60MM), including $14MM in 2018. He tossed 146 1/3 innings of 3.81 ERA/3.46 FIP ball with 8.0 K/9 against 2.52 BB/9 in 2017.
  • Reds lefty Joe Mantiply will undergo Tommy John surgery, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com tweets. Mantiply, 27, inked a minor league deal with the Reds in November after spending all of last season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate and posting terrific numbers over 70 innings (2.83 ERA, 7.97 K/9, 2.31 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent groundball rate). His only MLB experience to date came during a 2 2/3-inning stint with the Tigers in 2016.

Royals’ Jorge Bonifacio Gets 80-Game Suspension

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Major League Baseball has announced an 80-game suspension without pay for Royals outfielder Jorge Bonifacio, Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to report (Twitter link). Bonifacio tested positive for Boldenone, a performance-enhancing substance. His ban will open up roster space for third baseman Mike Moustakas, whom the Royals just re-signed.

In response to Bonifacio’s suspension, Royals general manager Dayton Moore said (via Rustin Dodd of The Athletic): “This obviously [is] a very disappointing situation for the Royals, our fans and Jorge. He is an incredible person who simple made a mistake. Jorge will have our full support as he deals with the consequences.”

The 24-year-old Bonifacio, formerly a well-regarded prospect, is coming off his first major league season. Across 422 plate appearances, the right-handed hitter slashed .255/.320/.432 with 17 home runs to essentially grade as a league-average offensive performer (99 wRC+). He also saw 808 innings in the outfield, mostly in right (743), and ended up with minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-o.3 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Coming off a respectable rookie campaign, Bonifacio was the front-runner to start in right for the Royals on Opening Day, but the team will now have to make other plans for the first couple months of 2018. The club just signed veteran Jon Jay, who figures to join long-tenured Royal Alex Gordon in occupying starting spots. Other outfield options on the 40-man roster include Jorge Soler, Paulo Orlando, Hunter Dozier, former top prospect Bubba Starling (who’s dealing with an oblique injury) and perhaps second baseman Whit Merrifield, whom the Royals have tried in the grass in recent weeks. Kansas City also has Michael Saunders, Cody Asche and Tyler Collins on hand as experienced big leaguers who are in spring training as non-roster invitees.

In the event they’re not content with their in-house selections, the Royals could once again venture to free agency, where they’ve been active recently with the signings of Moustakas, Jay and Lucas Duda. There are some proven (albeit flawed) outfield options available via that route, with ex-Royals Melky Cabrera and Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier and Matt Holliday among them. Infielder Neil Walker is also unsigned, and although he’s not an outfielder, he’d upgrade the Royals’ position player group in the wake of Bonifacio’s ban. The Royals showed interest in Walker recently.

Mariners Place Tony Zych On Release Waivers

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The Mariners have placed Tony Zych on waivers for unconditional release, Greg Johns of MLB.com tweets. It was recently reported that the right-hander was undergoing tests for shoulder discomfort.

A 2011 early-round pick by the Cubs, Zych was famously traded to the Mariners for exactly $1. He always showed tremendous strikeout upside during his Mariners tenure. Across 32 innings during the 2015-2016 seasons, he owned an impressive 12.66 K/9. However, that fell to a much more average 7.75 K/9 last season in 40 2/3 innings.

That Zych has only managed 72 2/3 innings since being promoted in September of 2015 might speak more clearly to the reason for his release. The righty has struggled with shoulder and arm injuries throughout his career, and as such he’s had quite a bit of trouble staying on the field.

If Zych can regain his health, however, it’s not hard to see an MLB team bringing him into the fold. His strikeout upside and ground ball rate (just under 50% for his career) are both reasons to believe that the 27-year-old could contribute at the back end of a major league bullpen again.

East Notes: Pomeranz, Glover, Freicer

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Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz could attempt to throw two innings of live batting practice next week, writes Scott Lauber of ESPN. That would be a notable progression in his rehab back from a flexor strain, though it’s not yet clear whether he’ll be ready to take the mound for his first start of the season (Lauber notes that this would be either April 1st or April 2nd). Pomeranz is set to become a free agent following this season, and he’ll certainly want to avoid any injury-related question marks as he hits free agency amidst a  free agent pitching class that could potentially include Clayton Kershaw and fellow Red Sox left-hander David Price.

Elsewhere along the Atlantic shoreline…

  • There’s no timetable for Koda Glover to begin throwing again, Jamal Collier writes in his latest inbox column for MLB.com. Collier adds that all signs point to Glover being out of the bullpen mix to start the 2018 season. The 24-year-old right-hander was expected by many to emerge as a closer option for the Nationals last season, but injuries cut his season short, and his 5.12 ERA across 19 1/3 innings doesn’t look pretty. However, his 4.25 K/BB ratio stands out as excellent; the Nats are surely hoping he can return soon to deliver on his potential.
  • Frecier Perez, the Yankees’ No. 9 prospect, is now represented by The Legacy Agency, Robert Murray of FanRag Sports tweets. The towering 6’8″ right-hander has risen rapidly across the Bombers’ prospect list thanks to his projectable frame and ability to consistently throw 100 MPH. Perez is 21 years old and was signed in 2014 out of the Dominican Republic for just $10K. Current Yankees scout Dan Giese spoke highly of Perez earlier this winter, citing his ability to throw strikes and feel for his change-up as reasons for optimism. He spent most of last season at Low-A Charleston.

Poll: $6.5MM Contracts

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As Opening Day draws closer, we’re beginning to see the unfortunate penalties for players who overestimated their markets at the offseason’s outset. A number of our top-50-ranked free agents have fallen well short of the expectations we had for them, including three players ranked in our top five (Masahiro Tanaka excluded) who’ve been guaranteed at least $35MM less than we predicted.

That group includes Mike Moustakas, who so far seems to be the abnormal offseason’s biggest victim. We thought “Moose” would receive a guarantee in the $85MM range, but he ended up settling for a contract with the Royals that’ll pay him just $6.5MM, including a buyout of a mutual option for 2019. Logan Morrison and Jonathan Lucroy have also signed deals that guarantee them that exact same amount, despite the fact that they were widely expected to earn far more money. It should be noted that Moustakas has $2.2MM in available incentives in 2018 based on plate appearances, while Morrison can earn an extra $1.5 MM in similar fashion and can increase the base value of his 2019 option (or even cause it to vest) based on his 2018 plate appearances. However, these are excruciatingly small consolation prizes compared to the money they hoped to earn at the start of the winter.

The biggest subject of the offseason of course, has been why it’s been so unusual. But one of the more obvious answers is that the league-wide home run surge has likely resulted in a league-wide devaluation of power. That would certainly explain cooler-than-expected demand for players like Moustakas and Morrison, both of whom slugged 38 homers last season but had notable flaws elsewhere in their game. That Lucroy’s power mysteriously evaporated entirely might have contributed to the evaporation of the market for his services.

Regardless, these players are all likely to provide excess value on their respective contracts. bWAR and fWAR generally agree on their values in relation to replacement level last season; Moustakas was worth somewhere around 2 WAR, Morrison close to 3.5 WAR, and Lucroy about 1 WAR. And even though Lucroy rated the least valuable of the three, it’s worth noting that he plays a premium position and been an immensely valuable player in the past (both offensively and defensively). Even a modest bounceback from the outgoing Rockies catcher could result in a solid season for the A’s.

Below are the Steamer and ZiPS projections for these players, taken from Fangraphs.com. As with any projections, they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Lucroy:
Steamer: .273/.347/.427, 11.8 Defense Rating, 2.9 fWAR
ZiPS: .298/.365/.449, 3.6 Defense Rating, 1.7 fWAR

Moustakas:
Steamer: .268/.328/.494, 2.1 Defense Rating, 2.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .267/.318/.485, 1.5 Defense Rating, 1.5 fWAR

Morrison:
Steamer: .249/.340/.461, -11.6 Defense Rating, 0.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .255/.345/.477, -10.8 Defense Rating, 1.9 fWAR

Who do you think will provide the most value on his $6.5MM contract? Here’s a poll link for app users.

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