MLB Trade Rumors

Last night, I sorted the skills of the best free agent first basemen. While there are always a large number of free agent corner outfielders, this year there are three that stand high above the rest. Justin Upton (who can opt out of the remaining 4 years and $88MM on his current deal), J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce all had great 2017 seasons, and all three are 30 years of age.

But the similarities don’t stop there. Each of those three corner outfielders smacked at least 35 homers while driving it at least 100 runs in 2017. All three were traded mid-season, making them ineligible for qualifying offers (though Upton wouldn’t have been able to receive one under the new CBA anyway, since he’s been issued a QO in a past season). All have averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season for the past three years. They even share the same first initial.

So what makes these three players different? Let’s start by taking a quick look at their fWAR.

One-Year Sample (2017)

1. Upton – 5.0
2. Martinez – 3.8
3. Bruce – 2.7

Three-Year Sample (2015-2017)

1. Martinez – 10.5
2. Upton – 9.9
3. Bruce – 3.7

Upton seems to have had the best overall 2017 season, while Martinez has been more valuable over the larger sample size. But each of these outfielders provide their value to prospective ballclubs in different ways. Here’s a breakdown of their skill sets.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

One-Year Sample

1. Martinez – .367
2. Upton – .268
3. Bruce – .254

Three-Year Sample

1. Martinez – .284
2. Bruce – .239
3. Upton – .230

Extra Base Hits Per Plate 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 15.13
2. Upton – 12.44
3. Bruce – 10.85

Three-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 12.39
2. Bruce – 10.67
3. Upton – 10.37

It’s no surprise that Martinez leads the way in the power department. Despite missing over a month of the 2017 season with an injury, he still managed to lead the group with 45 homers between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Ever since his breakout year with the Tigers, he’s been a home run monster. While Upton was better in 2017, Bruce has an advantage over him when a three-year sample is taken into account, probably in part due to Upton’s poor start to 2016. Power is certainly not a weakness for any of these players, but Martinez is the runaway favorite in the pop department.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

One-Year Sample

1. Bruce – 22.5%
2. Martinez – 26.2%
3. Upton – 28.3%

Three-Year Sample

1. Bruce – 22.1%
2. Martinez – 26.1%
3. Upton – 27.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

One-Year Sample

1. Upton – 11.7%
2. Martinez – 10.8%
3. Bruce – 9.2%

Three-Year Sample

1. Upton – 10.2%
2. Martinez – 9.3%
3. Bruce – 8.6%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

One-Year Sample

1. Upton – 26.9%
2. Bruce – 31.3%
3. Martinez – 32.1%

Three-Year Sample

1. Upton – 25.7%
2. Bruce – 32.0%
3. Martinez – 33.8%

All three of these players have been pretty consistent in their plate discipline skills across the past three seasons. While Upton seems to have a lot of swing and miss in his game, he chases a much lower percentage of bad pitches than do the others. He also draws more walks. We can probably say with some certainty that Martinez has the worst plate discipline of the group.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

One-Year Sample

1. Bruce – 73.9%
2. Upton – 71.7%
3. Martinez – 71.2%

Three-Year Sample

1. Bruce – 75.8%
2. Martinez – 72.0%
3. Upton – 71.2%

Bruce would appear to have the best ability to make contact. It’s interesting to see that his contact rate is down so significantly from years past; hopefully this is not a sign of decline but rather a sign of change in approach. Martinez and Upton are close enough that we can basically consider this category a toss-up between those two.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 12.3
2. Upton – 7.9
3. Bruce – 7.1

Three-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 10.9
2. Upton – 7.4
3. Bruce – 6.4

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

One-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 49.0%
2. Upton – 41.0%
3. Bruce – 40.3%

Three-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 44.0%
2. Upton – 38.1%
3. Bruce – 37.9%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

One-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 90.8
2. Upton – 88.8
3. Bruce – 88.3

Three-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 91.2
2. Upton – 90.1
3. Bruce – 89.0

The numbers are completely consistent across categories and sample sizes; Martinez makes the highest-quality contact by a wide margin, with Upton being just a bit better than Bruce in each of these categories. It’s worth mentioning that Martinez’ 12.3 barrels per hundred plate appearances ranked second in all of baseball this year, behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (12.8).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Weak Platoon Side:

One-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 147
2. Upton – 131
3. Bruce – 88

Three-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 141
2. Upton – 120
3. Bruce – 82

Pull Rate (Pull%):

One-Year Sample

1. Martinez – 38.3%
2. Upton – 38.6%
3. Bruce – 44.4%

Three-Year Sample

1. Upton – 40.9%
2. Martinez – 40.1%
3. Bruce – 45.3%

Bruce’s value really falls off here. Martinez and Upton are both worse against righties than lefties, but still right-handers for well-above-average results. Bruce, on the other hand, is a below-average hitter against southpaws. Furthermore, Bruce is far more vulnerable to shifts than his counterparts, consistently pulling the ball far more often. Count Bruce a loser in this arena.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

One-Year Sample

1. Upton – 4.0
2. Bruce – [-2.1]
3. Martinez – [-5.7]

Three-Year Sample

1. Upton – 10.2
2. Bruce – [-6.7]
3. Martinez [-11.2]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

One-Year Sample

1. Upton – 27.6
2. Martinez – 26.8
3. Bruce – 26.5

Upton really separates himself in this regard, providing positive baserunning value while reaching a peak sprint speed nearly a full mile per hour better than his competitors. It’s probably best to use the one-year sample size here, as players don’t often end up getting faster after age 30. Martinez’ baserunning value works against him, but speed doesn’t matter as much when you’re hitting 45 balls out of the park.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

One-Year Sample

1. Upton – 3.5
2. Bruce – 2.4
3. Martinez – [-14.8]

Three-Year Sample

1. Upton – [-0.3]
2. Bruce – [-4.0]
3. Martinez – [-7.2]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

One-Year Sample

1. Upton – 8
2. Bruce – 5
3. Martinez – [-5]

Three-Year Sample

1. Upton – 17
2. Bruce – [-1]
3. Martinez – [-23]

Here, we see yet another area where Upton distinguishes himself. Upton rates as a far superior option to both Bruce and Martinez over a three-year sample size. If we’re to believe Bruce has genuinely made improvements to his glovework, this category could give his value a bit of a boost. To say Martinez is bad in the field would be an understatement. If he goes to an AL team, that might not matter quite as much. Still, his fielding skills are more likely than not to decline from this point on, and one has to wonder at what point his defense will become a liability.

While Upton and Martinez are probably obvious bets to make more than Bruce in free agency, all three players will ultimately sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Many teams are looking for corner outfielders, and each of these three outfielders provide something the others don’t. Due to his contact ability, Bruce could be a serviceable bargain signing for a team that has the ability to get on base and put the ball in play a lot. A team with a more ground ball-oriented starting staff might care slightly less about Martinez’ outfield defense. Upton’s whiff rate might not matter to teams that are more focused on scoring runs with the long ball. It will be fun to see how these factors influence the market for each of these players.