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Reaction To The Phillies/Jake Arrieta Agreement

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2018 at 11:23pm CDT

One of the offseason’s major free agents finally came off the board today, as Jake Arrieta agreed to a three-year, $75MM contract with the Phillies that will become official once the right-hander passes a physical. Here is some of the early reaction to the deal…

“For the Phillies, this was as close to a no-brainer as $25 million per season gets,” David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes. Murphy argues that the Phillies were simply in such dire need for starting pitching that a quality arm like Arrieta was too good to pass up, even at a significant price for a still-rebuilding team. Though Arrieta’s performance dipped in 2017, Murphy notes that even Arrieta’s down year still more or less equaled Aaron Nola’s numbers, so “in essence, the Phillies will have added another Nola even if Arrieta’s 2017 is his new normal.” Even if Arrieta declines further, the three-year length of the deal means that he won’t be much of a long-term burden on the Phils’ spending abilities.
The threat of such a decline, however, makes this signing “a strange one” for the Phillies, in the opinion of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required). Arrieta’s peripherals and velocity were both down in 2017, and Law wonders if “this is a Tim Lincecum situation where there’s no actual injury but he’s just wearing down after a great peak.” Even if Arrieta stabilizes his performance or regains some of his old form, Law questions the wisdom of a contract that will likely deliver most of its value before the Phillies are truly ready to contend.
“The Padres had more than passing interest in Jake Arrieta”, Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets, but the $25MM average annual value of Arrieta’s contract was too high for San Diego’s liking. The club was known to have been at least considering the idea of going after the right-hander, who could’ve joined Eric Hosmer as the second major Scott Boras client to (surprisingly) sign with the Padres this winter. Lin feels the Padres are likely to stick with their current rotation mix rather than add another starting pitcher, though “there are fans of Alex Cobb in the organization.”
The Nationals had been mentioned as a speculative landing spot for Arrieta for much of the offseason, due to both the Nats’ possible need for another starter and Boras’ well-documented relationship with the Lerner family. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com notes, however, “Nats folks insisted from the beginning Boras was trying to make them more interested in Arrieta than they were.” Even if Washington was more likely to engage in Arrieta’s market if the price dropped, it seemingly never got low enough for the Nationals to make a strong bid.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Liriano, Tigers, White Sox

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2018 at 10:00pm CDT

Perhaps no team gained as much from the offseason’s slow free agent market as the Twins, who were able to sign Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison to one-year deals far below their expected asking prices. These signings augmented Minnesota’s heavier investment in relief pitching (Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke) and its acquisition of Jake Odorizzi from the Rays for just a lightly-regarded minor league infielder. “We recognized relatively early in this offseason that there are different rules to this card game and we kept getting dealt different cards,” Twins GM Thad Levine tells Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown. “We had to figure out how to keep our head above water in this new game….It would be a little disingenuous for me to say that we had any forecast associated with seeing that this was on the horizon and that we plotted these moves. We really were more reacting to how the market was unfolding and trying to make the most of our opportunities.”

While the team itself is obviously pleased at the roster upgrades, Phil Hughes noted that it also “a little bit conflicting” for Twins players as they recognize how some of their fellow union members have been left shortchanged on the open market. “You recognize there’s a problem with the way free agency is being handled now,” Hughes said. “But, we’re benefiting from a couple of these guys who shouldn’t have fallen into our laps….You certainly would rather be the team getting these guys for sweetheart deals than the team not getting them.”

Here’s some more from around the AL Central…

Health permitting, Francisco Liriano has clinched a spot in the Tigers rotation, manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck). Liriano worked exclusively out of the bullpen down the stretch for the Astros last season after struggling in 17 starts for the Blue Jays. Now that he’s regained a foothold as a starter, however, Liriano will join Michael Fulmer in Detroit’s starting five with the other three spots to be contested between Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Fiers, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd. With Boyd out of options and Zimmermann and Fiers both under MLB contracts, Norris could be the odd man out, as he still has a minor league option remaining.
The Tigers are still scouting and evaluating several potential candidates for the first overall pick in June’s amateur draft, team director of amateur scouting Scott Pleis tells The Athletic’s Katie Strang (subscription required). The process is still “wide open now,” Pleis said, and “after we get later into March and into April, we’ll have an idea — or narrow it down more, is what I should say.” The interview contains lots of interesting tidbits about what Pleis and the Tigers value in a prospect, with a particular focus on the player’s makeup and character.
Ryan Cordell is having a strong Spring Training and could be working his way into a spot on the White Sox roster, NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber writes. Cordell, an 11th-round pick for the Rangers in the 2013 draft, has a .276/.339/.468 slash line, 65 homers and 81 steals (in 103 chances) over 1940 career PA in the minor leagues. He was acquired from the Brewers for Anthony Swarzak last July, and White Sox GM Rick Hahn said in January that he’d received trade inquiries about Cordell from three different teams. Chicago is having an open competition for center field and left field playing time could also be available if Nicky Delmonico’s partially-dislocated shoulder sidelines him for a significant amount of time.

Injury Notes: Cano, Delgado, White Sox, Finnegan

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2018 at 8:07pm CDT

The latest updates on some injury situations around the game…

Minor left hamstring tightness forced Robinson Cano out during the second inning of today’s Mariners/Reds game, and the second baseman will receive an MRI tomorrow. Cano told reporters (including the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish) that he doesn’t believe the injury is serious, comparing it a hamstring issue from last season that kept him out of action for just a couple of games. The Mariners are certainly hopeful they can avoid another spring injury — Ryon Healy (hand) and Ben Gamel (oblique) could miss Opening Day, while the likes of Felix Hernandez, Mitch Haniger, Erasmo Ramirez and Dan Vogelbach have all also missed time with less-lengthy injuries.
Diamondbacks righty Randall Delgado could be questionable for Opening Day, as manager Torey Lovullo told The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link) and other media that Delgado has an issue with his left oblique. Delgado was already working his way back from a flexor strain that ended his 2017 campaign in mid-July. Prior that injury, Delgado had a solid 3.59 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and 4.23 K/BB rate over 62 2/3 IP for Arizona as a swingman, making five starts and 21 relief appearances.
Nicky Delmonico and Tyler Saladino were both injured after the two White Sox outfielders collided while chasing a fly ball during today’s Spring Training game. As per announcements from the team, Saladino was diagnosed with a mild concussion and will enter the seven-day concussion protocol, while Delmonico suffered a partial dislocation of his left shoulder and will be re-examined tomorrow. It’s a tough setback for the duo, as both players were looking to establish themselves on a young Sox roster that is wide-open for young talent to win jobs. Saladino was in the running for a utility role, while Delmonico was looking to win regular at-bats as either a left fielder or DH after an impressive (.262/.373/.482 with nine homers in 166 PA) rookie debut in 2017. While the severity of the injury isn’t yet known, Delmonico seems likely to begin the season on the disabled list.
Reds left-hander Brandon Finnegan lasted just two batters into an outing today before leaving the game with what the club described as a “lateral forearm spasm.” The injury doesn’t seem too problematic, as Finnegan himself said in a pair of tweets that the problem was “just a knot” and leaving the game was “just precautionary, got it all worked out and good to go.” Finnegan posted a 3.98 ERA over 172 innings for Cincinnati in 2016, but multiple shoulder problems limited him to just four starts last season.

AL West Notes: Jay, Beltre, Bush, Rangers, Peacock

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2018 at 7:09pm CDT

The Mariners were linked to Jon Jay back in November, and ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) reports that Seattle had enough interest to offer Jay a three-year contract. The two sides didn’t reach an agreement, however, and Jay’s free agent sojourn only ended last week when he signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Royals. It’s easy to second-guess Jay’s decision in hindsight, though of course he (like many other free agents) could hardly have expected the market freeze that left several players settling for contracts that fell well below their initial asking prices. The M’s ended up going in a more unorthodox direction to solve their center field problem, instead acquiring second baseman Dee Gordon from the Marlins and converting him into an outfield role.

Some more news and notes from around the AL West…

In a recent appearance on 105.3 The Fan’s Ben And Skin Show (partial transcript from the Dallas Morning News), Adrian Beltre discussed his future both with the Rangers and as a player in general. The 20-year MLB veteran is taking his career on an annual basis, noting that “I can’t tell you it’s going to be this year or next year or the year after that” when he finally hangs up his glove. The main factors in Beltre’s decision include his health, his level of production and whether or not he is still on a contender. Plus, Beltre is seemingly intrigued by the idea of going out on top, saying “It would be easier for me if we won the World Series this year or next year to go home.” Beltre hopes to achieve that goal in a Rangers uniform, noting that he doesn’t want to be traded, though such a scenario could happen if Texas falls out of contention by the deadline (Beltre is entering the last year of his contract). If he heads into free agency while still a Ranger, Beltre said “it would make it easy for me” to re-sign with the club if the Rangers promised to make a big push to contend in 2019.
The Rangers have decided to keep Matt Bush in the bullpen, manager Jeff Banister told reporters (including MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan). Bush came into spring camp with the hopes of getting himself into the rotation mix, though the righty will instead be deployed as a setup man and potentially as a multi-inning reliever. Banister believes Bush is most valuable to Texas in this role, and thus Bush isn’t a candidate to serve as the Rangers’ closer.
Brad Peacock may also be ticketed for a multi-inning relief role, as The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes that the Astros have used Peacock in two-inning stints in each of his three Spring Training appearances. Houston places a high value on multi-inning relievers and could theoretically deploy several of their bullpen arms in that fashion, though Kaplan feels Chris Devenski could be in line for more one-inning outings after appearing to tire in the second half of the 2017 season. Peacock has extra durability as a former starting pitcher and his stuff lends itself well to such a relief role. He held hitters to just a .420 OPS during his first time through the lineup last season, easily the lowest OPS of any pitcher who made at least 20 starts.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/11/18

By Connor Byrne | March 11, 2018 at 5:57pm CDT

Sunday’s minor moves…

The Rays have released left-hander Dan Runzler, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. The 32-year-old Runzler joined the Rays last month on a minor league deal after spending 2017 with the Pittsburgh organization. Runzler threw four big league innings with the Pirates, which represented his first action in the majors since 2012. He was more of a factor at Triple-A, where he tossed 41 1/3 frames of 3.08 ERA/4.28 FIP ball. Runzler’s previous MLB experience consisted of 72 1/3 IP with the Giants from 2009-12.

Phillies, Jake Arrieta “Moving Close” To Agreement

By Connor Byrne | March 11, 2018 at 3:37pm CDT

3:37pm: The Phillies and Arrieta “are moving close to a deal,” Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets.

1:24pm: Free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta’s lengthy stay on the open market is likely to end “in the next couple of days,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. There are still “several teams” vying for Arrieta, according to Nightengale, who adds that the Phillies look like the favorites to land the 32-year-old.

Signing Arrieta would be the second major splash of free agency for the Phillies, who picked up first baseman Carlos Santana on a three-year, $60MM guarantee over the winter. Philadelphia was reportedly “having dialogue” with Arrieta back in late February, though team brass has insisted in recent months that the Phillies aren’t keen on doling out a long-term contract at this juncture. As part of a typical market, that would probably hurt the Phillies’ chances of reeling in a top-caliber starter like Arrieta, but free agency has been anything but normal in recent months. Evidence of that lies in the fact that Arrieta is still in limbo four-plus months since he became available, despite an excellent run with the Cubs from 2014-17.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a four-year, $100MM pact for Arrieta. It’s possible that will prove to be generous, though, as two of the other best starters in this winter’s class – Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn – signed for significantly less than expected, while both Arrieta and Alex Cobb are still without teams. In Darvish’s case, although he didn’t reach the projected $150MM guarantee, he still received a six-year, $126MM commitment to replace Arrieta in Chicago. Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has tried to convince anyone who’ll listen that his client warrants a far richer contract than Darvish’s, but it looks highly unlikely at this point that he’ll get his way.

Regardless of how much money signing Arrieta might cost the Phillies, the onetime Cy Young winner’s history indicates he’d give them a second front-end starter to join budding ace Aaron Nola. The Phillies’ projected rotation is otherwise a mostly unproven group, so it’s debatable whether they’d even jump into wild-card contention in 2018 with Arrieta, though FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards recently argued that they’re not far off in a league with no apparent playoff shoo-ins aside from the powerhouse Dodgers-Cubs-Nationals trio.

While the Phillies are currently upstarts who have posted six straight non-playoff seasons, including five consecutive sub-.500 years, it’s clear they’re gearing up for a return to relevance in the near future. Further, the big-market club has flexed its financial muscle oftentimes in the past and could very easily afford an Arrieta signing now, with Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource currently projecting an Opening Day payroll of roughly $65MM. That would be approximately $35MM than last year’s figure and the franchise’s lowest since it fielded a $58MM team in 2002.

It’s worth noting that Arrieta wouldn’t just cost the Phillies money. Because he rejected the Cubs’ qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, the Phillies (or anyone else) would have to surrender draft compensation and international bonus pool money ($500K in Philly’s case) to sign him. The Phillies already gave up their second-highest pick in 2018 when they signed Santana, though, so they’d only have to part with their third choice (No. 79) for Arrieta.

NL Notes: Reds, Nats, Brewers, Braves, Cubs

By Connor Byrne | March 11, 2018 at 3:25pm CDT

Injuries continue to plague Reds right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who’s now dealing with an oblique issue, C. Trent Rosecrans was among those to report (Twitter links). There’s no timetable for DeSclafani’s return, per Rosecrans, who adds that he “felt discomfort” during his start Friday and then underwent an MRI. DeSclafani previously missed two months during the 2016 campaign with an oblique injury, and then sat out all of last season with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament, depriving the Reds of one of their top players. When he was available from 2014-15, DeSclafani logged a 3.74 ERA/3.79 FIP with 7.48 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9 across 308 innings.

Central Notes: Pham, Cards, Tigers, Royals, Moose, Reds, Senzel

By Connor Byrne | March 11, 2018 at 11:48am CDT

The emergence of Tommy Pham was one of the best developments of 2017 for the Cardinals, who saw the former reserve deliver a stunningly great age-29 campaign (6.4 rWAR, 5.9 fWAR). Pham may not have been in position to break out as a Cardinal if not for their then-farm director, John Vuch, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details. Even though Pham suffered through injury-shortened seasons in the Cardinals’ minor league system in 2011 and ’12, Vuch remained bullish on the former 16th-round pick and convinced him to re-sign with the organization on a two-year minors pact entering 2013. Pham’s driving force then was to eventually get to the majors, which he did in 2014. He’s now trying to remain among the game’s premier players and, according to agent Eric Izen, “understands that he’s got a smaller window than a lot of players. He’s 30 years old.” Unfortunately for Pham, his age may prevent him from ever landing a huge payday in the league. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason. In the meantime, he’ll make $570K this season after the Cards renewed him for that rate this week. That came after discussions regarding a two-year deal failed to gain traction, Goold wrote earlier this week. “The numbers didn’t add up to me and my agency and the union. Nothing made sense,” Pham said. “I didn’t think. It’s business first and foremost. I didn’t like it. The numbers didn’t seem right. I wouldn’t sell myself short like that.”

More out of the Central divisions…

The rebuilding Tigers won’t be adding any more free agents prior to the season, according to general manager Al Avila. “No, we’re done for now,” Avila told Jon Morosi of MLB Network on Saturday. “We said we were going to try to sign two pitchers, and we signed two pitchers. As far as free agents, we’re done” (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, it was a modest offseason for Detroit; aside from those two pitchers (Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano), its only other guaranteed contract went to outfielder Leonys Martin. Those three will earn a combined $11.75MM in 2018.
Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters Sunday that he’s considering giving third baseman Mike Moustakas some looks at first base this spring, though he hasn’t talked to the player about it yet (Twitter links via Rustin Dodd of The Athletic and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com). If Moustakas actually does see action at first during the season, it could open up playing time for third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert, Dodd points out. The re-signing of Moustakas figures to lead to a smaller-than-expected role for Cuthbert, though Yost said this week (via Dodd) that he’d like for Cuthbert to rack up at least 400 at-bats this season. Cuthbert encouraged as a rookie back in 2016, when he amassed 510 trips to the plate and hit .274/.318/.413, before experiencing a massive drop in PAs (153) and production (.231/.275/.322) last year.
Back in early November, the Reds were aiming to use hyped infield prospect Nick Senzel all around the diamond in 2018. They’ve since abandoned that plan, manager Bryan Price explained to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “You can’t do that. The game’s not that easy to take a young man that’s primarily been third base and move him all over the field,” Price said. “We’ve primarily kept him on the left side of the infield.” The Reds are unsure whether the 22-year-old’s primary spot will be third base or shortstop when he opens the season in the minors, but Senzel believes he’s already capable of playing short in the majors right now, per Sheldon. At least for the moment, that position belongs to Jose Peraza in Cincinnati.

Blue Jays Release Ezequiel Carrera

By Jeff Todd | March 11, 2018 at 9:52am CDT

MARCH 11: The Blue Jays have now elected to release Carrera, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link).

MARCH 1: The Blue Jays announced that outfielder Ezequiel Carrera has been outrighted after clearing waivers. He had recently been designated for assignment but will now return to camp as a non-roster invitee. That’s the best possible result for Toronto, which had to expose Carrera to the waiver wire in order to add reliever Seung-hwan Oh.

It appears that Carrera has accepted his assignment, as he would have had the right to opt instead for free agency. The fact that the remainder of the league passed on claiming him isn’t promising, though that would’ve meant stepping into a $1.9MM arbitration salary.

It is not immediately clear whether Carrera is still playing pursuant to that arb agreement, or whether instead the team now controls him on alternative terms such that he’d earn at a different rate if he stays with the club into the start of the season. Regardless, the Jays will owe Carrera at least thirty days’ worth of termination pay (just over $300K).

The Jays are obviously fond of the 30-year-old, who has appeared in 332 games with the organization over the past three seasons. He has never been better than 2017, when he turned in a healthy .282/.356/.408 batting line in 325 trips to the plate while also adding eight homers and swiped ten bags.

Still, later developments in the offseason evidently led the club to go in a different direction. The signing of Curtis Granderson — the only other left-handed-hitting outfielder who seems likely to be in the mix in the early portion of the season — certainly didn’t help Carrera’s cause. And the acquisition of Randal Grichuk likely took away the possibility of a strict platoon scenario. With the switch-hitting Dalton Pompey and lefty-swinging Dwight Smith Jr. also in the mix, the Jays obviously felt they did not need to keep another southpaw bat on the 40-man roster.

East Notes: Lynn, Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | March 11, 2018 at 9:33am CDT

The Orioles had talks over the winter with then-free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, who finally exited the market Saturday when he agreed to sign with the Twins. Lynn ended up with a one-year, $12MM pact, but he perhaps could have gotten a longer deal in Baltimore. The Orioles may have been willing to give Lynn either three guaranteed years or two with a vesting option, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Lynn would have been the third (and likely the best) starter to sign with the Orioles in recent weeks. They previously added Andrew Cashner and re-signed Chris Tillman. There remains room for improvement, which general manager Dan Duquette realizes. “We need to find some answers to our pitching staff,” Duquette admitted to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com as part of a Q&A that’s worth reading in full. While Duquette noted that “it’s getting kind of late in the spring training period for pitchers to get ready,” he’s nonetheless not ruling out adding another starter in free agency or via trade.

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