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Mariners Claim Cameron Perkins

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The Mariners have claimed outfielder Cameron Perkins from the Phillies, the team announced and Devan Fink of SB Nation first tweeted. He had been placed on outright waivers recently. The move leaves the Phils with one open 40-man spot and the Mariners with three.

Perkins, 28, struggled badly in his first taste of the majors in 2017. But the 2012 6th-rounder had shown more at times in the minors. Over 295 plate appearances at Triple-A in 2017, he slashed .288/.374/.447. Though he hit just seven home runs, Perkins drew thirty walks against 47 strikeouts in that span.

Pitching Market Chatter: Cole, Herrera, Soria, Cishek, Rondon

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With lots of information flying around the Winter Meetings, let’s check in on a few interesting notes on the pitching market:

  • The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates ace Gerrit Cole, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets, but have been left to believe that Cole won’t be moved. Pittsburgh’s intentions for the winter have never really been clear, with a few notable veterans nearing free agency but a core in place that might still contend in the near term. Presumably, the Bucs are still weighing their options. If a Cole deal is considered, it’s not entirely certain whether the team would prioritize long-term prospect value or prefer instead to bring back controllable assets already playing at the MLB level. While the 27-year-old was less than dominant in 2017, he was able to top two hundred frames and averaged a typical 8.7 K/9 with 2.4 BB/9. The asking price, in other words, will likely still be lofty for a pitcher with a front-line reputation. If the Yankees are serious about pursuit, they’d surely have some interesting pieces to dangle.
  • The Royals are willing to consider trade scenarios involving closer Kelvin Herrera, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Righty Joakim Soria is also available via trade, per a report from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). That doesn’t rate as much of a surprise given the team’s relatively hefty payroll and questionable chances of contention. Indeed, recent indications are that some sort of rebuilding effort could be in the works. Herrera is coming off of a middling campaign, but also has a history of late-inning success and is projected to earn a relatively palatable $8.3MM in his final season of arb eligibility. Soria, 33, only carried a 3.70 ERA in his 56 frames in 2017, but did post a healthy 10.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. He’s slated to earn $9MM in 2018 and is also promised a $1MM buyout on a 2019 mutual option.
  • Despite some cautionary comments from GM Sandy Alderson yesterday, the Mets are giving indications that they will land at least one reliever over the Winter Meetings, Sherman reports on Twitter. But it’s more likely the team will secure a shorter-term asset than one of the premium setup men they’ve been connected to in the past, he adds. Righty Steve Cishek is one pitcher that has drawn New York’s attention, per Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). The veteran sidearmer finished 2017 with a strong run for the Rays, posting a 1.09 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in his final 24 2/3 innings after coming over from the Mariners over the summer.
  • As the Nationals look into possible bullpen additions, the club could consider free agent Hector Rondon, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. Washington was among the teams that spoke with the Cubs about Rondon before he was non-tendered. The Nats and others obviously were not willing to risk an arbitration hearing with a player who projected at $6.2MM, but presumably there’ll be fairly wide interest at a lower price tag. Though he faded a bit in 2017, Rondon still carried 10.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 while maintaining his typically robust fastball velocity and also showing career highs in swinging-strike (11.9%) and groundball (48.3%) rates.

Tigers Outright Victor Alcantara

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Right-hander Victor Alcantara has been outrighted after clearing waivers, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported on Twitter. That leaves the team with an open 40-man spot in advance of the Rule 5 draft later this week.

The 24-year-old Alcantara, who came to the organization in the Cameron Maybin swap, struggled in his first, limited MLB action in 2017. Alcantara spent most of the year in the upper minors, where he was utilized mostly as a reliever after spending the bulk of his career to that point as a starter. Over 74 2/3 innings at Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 3.62 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9.

Rangers To Sign Chris Martin

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The Rangers have struck a two-year deal with righty Chris Martin, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Martin will receive a $4MM guarantee with $550K in annual incentives that can be reached if he reaches unstated games-finished thresholds. Martin is represented by SSG Baseball.

Though the 6’8″ Martin did not succeed in two brief MLB chances, he has gone on to produce outstanding results in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Over the past two seasons, he carries a 1.12 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 1.3 BB/9 over 88 1/3 innings.

With the move, the Rangers have continued a long-established practice of bringing back pitchers that have found success in Japan after first failing to gain traction on this side of the Pacific. Another recent returnee, Tony Barnette, recently re-signed with Texas and will also factor into the current relief mix.

Martin will step into the club’s pen for the next two seasons, but will not be controllable beyond that point. His contract, Rosenthal notes, provides that the team will not be able to tender him a contract via arbitration after the 2019 campaign.

Middle Infield Market Notes: Padres, Hernandez, Lowrie, Kinsler

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The Padres are one of the only teams in baseball with a clear need at shortstop, and they appear to be shopping around the potential market. Per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, via Twitter, San Diego has “real interest” in free agent Zack Cozart. He’ll surely command a fairly significant contract, though there may also be an opportunity to realize value given the lack of demand at short. The Friars are also looking into Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Galvis is projected to earn a healthy $7.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, so he’d likely be available for a reasonable price — so long as the Phils decide it’s time to move on.

More on the market for middle infielders …

  • Meanwhile, the Phillies are said to be setting a fairly lofty price tag on second baseman Cesar Hernandez, per Heyman (Twitter link). The 27-year-old switch-hitter has established himself as a quality regular with two consecutive seasons of above-average offensive production and quality glovework. He’s projected to take home $4.7MM this year and is eligible to be tendered contracts for two more seasons. Hernandez is arguably the most valuable of the second basemen that can reasonably be considered plausible trade candidates.
  • Athletics second baseman Jed Lowrie is currently penciled into the organization’s everyday lineup, but Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that “it’s increasingly apparent that Lowrie could be on the move sooner rather than later.” The driving force here, it seems, isn’t so much salary — Lowrie’s reasonable $6MM tab still leaves the A’s room to work with — as it is opportunity. Oakland evidently sees a chance to get a strong return on Lowrie while working to improve in the outfield. Since Frankin Barreto could step into Lowrie’s shoes, the team may just be seeing a new and better way to allocate resources. The 33-year-old Lowrie had a strong bounceback season in 2017, turning in 645 plate appearances of .277/.360/.448 hitting.
  • All along, Tigers second bagger Ian Kinsler has seemed the likeliest player at his position to move. And it’s possible a deal could come together this week, GM Al Avila tells reporters including MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link). It’s a “possibility,” but not a certainty, that something will get done, according to Avila.

Astros Considering Pursuit Of Top Starters

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As the Astros prepare for a World Series title defense, they are at least weighing the possibility of adding a significant rotation piece, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, the club has “shown interest” in top free agents Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Possible trade targets such as Chris Archer could also be considered.

At this stage, it seems, that interest is mostly exploratory in nature. That’s not to diminish the importance of the report, though: the involvement of the ’Stros at the top of the rotation market could certainly have a significant bearing on how things shake out.

Though Houston’s payroll has continued to climb northward in recent years, the team’s successes have perhaps freed up some additional financial flexibility. Rosenthal also notes that the organization could find a taker for Collin McHugh — who’s projected to earn $4.8MM by MLBTR — should they make a big strike in the rotation.

On the one hand, this news hardly rates as a surprise. While the ’Stros staff has plenty of talent, particularly with Justin Verlander now on hand, it also comes with some questions. Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton have had some health concerns at times and Brad Peacock will need to prove his 2017 breakout is sustainable. Plus, with Dallas Keuchel slated for free agency next winter, there’s room to consider a long-term addition.

On the other, this is a bit of an interesting development. The unfortunate incident involving Yulieski Gurriel mocking Darvish during the World Series is one factor with regard to that particular possibility, though both players’ responses in the aftermath suggest it’s not an insurmountable barrier. Of greater importance, perhaps, is the fact that the Astros were so careful even when deciding to add Verlander out of concern for over-burdening their future payroll. Darvish and Arrieta are each already 31 years of age.

Then there’s the fact that the bullpen remains the obvious area to target. What’s most interesting about this report may be the possibility that the Astros would consider a major rotation upgrade to be a means of answering needs on the relief side — at least in part. With top youngsters such as Francis Martes and David Paulino climbing the ladder, there are plenty of avenues for creativity. Adding another quality starter would leave the organization with significant depth and flexibility to keep arms fresh through the season and, perhaps, enter a hypothetical postseason run with loads of interesting possibilities for handling a staff.

Latest On Corner Infield Market

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There are quite a few moving pieces on the market for corner infielders, so it’s conceivable that things could go in any number of different directions. At this point, it’s not even clear when or where the first dominoes will fall. Here’s the latest:

  • Fresh off of a non-tender by the Braves, first baseman Matt Adams has drawn interest from a few organizations, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Specifically, the Indians, Royals, and Nationals have all reached out to Adams’s representatives. While Cleveland and Kansas City could offer fairly significant roles to the left-handed hitter — who really is best utilized in a platoon capacity — the Nats unsurprisingly would consider him as a frequently used bench piece who might take some of the burden from Ryan Zimmerman. Atlanta was not able to find a taker for Adams before the tender deadline; he had projected to earn $4.6MM via arbitration, so it’d be surprising if he ended up receiving more than that on the open market. For the Indians, it seems, adding a player such as Adams would represent something of a “fallback,” as Crasnick terms it, if the team is unable to strike a new deal with Carlos Santana. MLBTR’s Kyle Downing just analyzed Santana’s free agent case and we have also rounded up the latest market chatter on one of the market’s top bats.
  • Having missed out on Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals are now scanning the rest of the market for offensive upgrades. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks at the team’s possible options, including free agents Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez. He notes that several upper-echelon third basemen might hold appeal on the trade market — which will come as little surprise to those that have followed the Cards’ trade rumblings for the last several months. Of course, it’s still unclear whether the Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson), Rays (Evan Longoria), or Orioles (Manny Machado) will make their stars available.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tackles that subject, discussing the relative likelihood that any of those three will be shopped. And Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times addresses things from the Rays’ perspective, reporting that Longoria has not been given any indication from the organization about their plans. While he says he hopes to remain in Tampa Bay, he also acknowledges he could be “somewhere in limbo.” If a trade comes to pass, says Longoria, “I suppose my family and I will adjust.”
  • The top free agent third baseman, of course, is Mike Moustakas. His market is still taking shape, but the Angels have (as expected) engaged with his camp to some degree, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter links). That said, there’s no indication of momentum. From an outside perspective, it also seems less likely that the Halos would line up on Moustakas after landing Shohei Ohtani. Even less likely is Logan Morrison, though Fletcher adds that he’s also still on the radar.
  • Hosmer and Martinez are conceivably also targets for the Red Sox, as are Santana and others. As Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes, the organization has engaged agent Scott Boras on both players; perhaps unsurprisingly, he also suggests that Boras is pitching Boston on signing the pair in a bold move to revamp its lineup. Interestingly, Cafardo also says that Hosmer’s former club, the Royals, once reached an internal assessment that Hosmer could swat forty long balls annually at Fenway. Of course, the notoriously heavy groundball hitter has never launched more than 25 in a given season (that’s a mark he reached in each of the last two campaigns).

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/11/17

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor signings:

  • The Astros have signed catcher Tim Federowicz to a minors pact, the club announced (per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle, on Twitter). Righty Matt Ramsey is also on board with a minor-league deal. Federowicz, 30, could join the competition for a reserve role in Houston if the club does not make a bigger strike for a backstop to pair with Evan Gattis. He has taken 318 total MLB plate appearances over parts of six seasons, slashing just .196/.245/.313 in sporadic action. As things stand, the depth chart projects Max Stassi as the primary reserve. As for Ramsey, the 28-year-old finished the 2017 season with a 3.65 ERA and 11.8 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in 44 1/3 Double-A frames, but was knocked around in brief action at the highest level of the minors.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Santana

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Following his seventh-straight season of providing the Indians with at least 2 wins above replacement, Carlos Santana is a free agent. He’ll be looking to get paid for his consistency, batting eye and improved defense at first base.

Pros/Strengths

Santana’s signature strength is his fantastic eye at the plate. Since the beginning of the 2011 season (his first full season at the MLB level), no player in the American League has drawn more free passes. His 698 walks during that span lead second-place Jose Bautista by 44 and third-place Mike Trout by 118, while trailing only Joey Votto in all of baseball. Santana also carries elite contact ability: during the 2017 season, his 7.1% swinging strike rate ranked top 30 in the majors, while his 21.4% chase rate was within MLB’s top ten. Thanks to this skill set, Santana was one of just four players in baseball with a walk rate above 13% and a strikeout rate below 15% this past year. The others were Joey Votto, Anthony Rendon and Anthony Rizzo. There are dozens more statistics just like this one, but the point remains the same: Santana is one of the most patient players on the planet.

He can do more than simply take walks, though. Santana’s power is also well above average. He’s socked 168 bombs since the start of 2011; that puts him in baseball’s top 25 during that time period. In his seven full major league seasons, Santana has never hit fewer than 18 homers, and he’s hit as many as 34. While his career .445 slugging percentage and .196 ISO don’t leap off the page, those figures are certainly nothing to scoff at. In fact, that ISO is tied for the 51st-highest mark out of the 203 players who’ve accumulated at least 2,000 plate appearances since Santana’s career began. Make no mistake: Santana is a threat to hit the ball out of the park at any time.

In addition to his offensive skill set, Santana may well be one of the best defensive first basemen in the game. UZR/150 has always been bullish on his work, rating him as being between 4.6 and 5.3 runs above average per 150 games in each of the past three seasons. However, DRS hasn’t painted a pretty picture of his work in the past. In 2017, however, Santana graded out to 10 Defensive Runs Saved; nine full runs better than his previous career high at first.

Cons/Weaknesses

Although the longtime Cleveland Indian doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses, his true achilles heel lies in his batted ball profile. Although Santana is a switch-hitter, is tendency to pull the ball more than half the time makes him incredibly easy for opposing infields to shift against. Santana’s pull percentage has been greater than 50% in all but one season of his career; the remaining season was 2012, during which his pull rate was 48.1%. All told, Santana’s career pull rate is a whopping 52.9%. Since Santana came into the league, only Mark Teixiera and Chris Young have higher pull rates among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances. Furthermore, Santana’s batting average on ground balls hit to the pull side of the infield has never been higher than .145 in any season of his career. Santana’s lack of offensive versatility has led to prolonged slumps throughout his career. Opposing teams can greatly improve their pitching performance against him by following a simple formula: pitch him inside, generate ground balls and deploy an extreme pull shift.

Other than his pull penchant, however, Santana doesn’t really have much in the way of weaknesses. One small criticism of his hitting ability is that he’s performed poorly against knuckle curveballs; Santana’s career weighted runs created against that particular pitch is -2.36, which ranks 222nd of 268 players during the course of his major league career. However, the pitch is so rare that it’s hard to imagine that will affect his value on the free agent market.

One could say that while Santana is an above average hitter, he’s merely average among first basemen. While his consistency is impressive, it’s not like he’s been consistently a stud. During his tenure as a first base/DH type, Santana has never ranked higher than ninth in fWAR among first basemen. In essence, he’s a great hitter, but not a spectacular hitter relative to his position on the field.

Background

The Los Angeles Dodgers originally signed Santana out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006. In 2008, the Indians acquired him in the Casey Blake trade.

Though he plays first base now, Santana’s major-league debut was as a catcher, a position he played in the majority of games until 2014. After a brief experiment at third base that year, Santana became a full-time first baseman/designated hitter and hasn’t been behind the plate for a single inning during the past three seasons. He’s never worn a major league uniform for any team but the Indians, but officially became a free agent when he rejected Cleveland’s qualifying offer earlier this winter.

Market

The fact that he’s limited to first base will take many NL teams out of the running for Santana, shortening his list of suitors. The crowded free agent first base market this year could further drive down his value; if that occurs, though, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs sees potential for Santana to rate as a notable bargain. The Indians have already made him a contract offer, while the Padres and Rangers have also shown interest. Some other potential suitors include the Red Sox, A’s and Rockies.

Contract

Though MLBTR initially predicted that Santana would sign a three-year, $45MM contract with the Indians, the two sides weren’t able to work out a deal before Santana rejected their qualifying offer. The initial market for him seems fairly strong, and with his relative youth so many teams already in the mix, the original prediction now appears to be on the low side. Though the presence of Eric Hosmer and Logan Morrison on the market could limit his earning power, I’m guessing Santana will get a four-year deal worth no less than $60MM.

Yankees Acquire Giancarlo Stanton

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MONDAY: The trade is now official, per club announcements.

SATURDAY: It would appear that the Giancarlo Stanton saga has come to a close. The Yankees are set to acquire the 2017 NL MVP from the Marlins in exchange for infielder Starlin Castro, along with minor-leaguers Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. The Marlins will also send the Yankees $30MM in cash if Stanton does not opt out of his contract after the 2020 season. The deal is still pending a physical.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports was the first to report that a deal was set, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post mentioned earlier that a deal was “virtually in place”, adding that Castro would be part of the deal. While some other cash numbers were mentioned by some reporters earlier in the day, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to mention the $30MM figure that has since been confirmed by Morosi as well as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Credit goes to Sherman for the report that the prospects involved are in the low minors, as well as first breaking the news that those prospects were Guzman and Devers. Sherman was also the first to report that the Yankees will only get the cash if Stanton doesn’t opt out after 2020.

While there was initially some uncertainty surrounding whether or not Stanton would waive his no-trade clause, that dissolved when Heyman reported that Stanton was on his way to New York City for his physical. Stanton will retain no-trade privileges after the one-time waiver, Heyman adds on Twitter, so he’ll still control his destiny if the Yanks end up trying to move the contract in the future.

The acquisition of Stanton by the Yankees brings a dramatic swirl of trade rumors to a firm close. There had been speculation about Stanton’s availability as early as July, though a trade never materialized despite Stanton reportedly clearing revocable trade waivers. Early in November, reports surfaced that the Marlins were interested in moving Stanton (and other big contracts) in order to trim payroll to about $90MM before the start of the 2018 season. While the Marlins were able to work out the framework for deals "<strongwith the Cardinals and Giants, Stanton ultimately used his no-trade clause to block those deals. The Marlins were ultimately forced to settle for a lesser prospect return from the Yankees, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Yankees took on more of Stanton’s salary than the Cardinals were willing to.

Stanton will add even more power to a Yankees lineup that finished the 2017 season with 241 homers; more than any other MLB club. Notably, Stanton will unite with the only other player to finish this past season with more than 50 homers: Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge. Those two right-handed power threats, along with a third in catcher Gary Sanchez, should become an absolute terror for opposing left-handed pitchers.

The Yankees have made it clear that they plan on trying to get below the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and while the acquisition of Stanton would seem to run contrary to that objective, making the two work in tandem could be easier than it would initially appear. Luxury tax implications are based on the average annual value of guaranteed contracts, and Stanton’s figure towards the threshold is based off of his entire contract with the Marlins. Since that deal was for 13 years and $325MM, Stanton’s luxury tax contribution will be $22MM annually, thanks to the conditional $30MM contribution from the Marlins. The average annual value of Castro’s contract is $8.6MM, so the Stanton trade will only add about $13.4MM to the Yankees payroll in 2018 for luxury tax purposes.

The Stanton deal will no doubt have an enormous ripple effect throughout baseball, starting with the AL East. The Red Sox stand out as big losers in this deal; not only did they hope to acquire Stanton themselves after finishing last in the AL in home runs, but the 2017 homer champ will be another right-handed power threat to a lefty-heavy Boston rotation that includes Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez. In addition, the Stanton deal further bolsters a Yankees team that looked formidable even without the reigning NL MVP, meaning that Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay (who seem to be on the fringes of contention) might reconsider their intentions to seriously compete for a pennant. Should those teams change their direction, big names like Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado could potentially become available in trade discussions. Even if that doesn’t happen, a more dominant Yankees lineup has a better chance to force their weaker rivals out of contention before the midseason trade deadline. That’s not to say that one player can definitively make such a profound impact, but as a seven-WAR player, Stanton could certainly tip the scales. Elsewhere in baseball, the Nationals, Mets and Braves will benefit from the full rebuild the completed deal signals for the Marlins camp.

Stanton, of course, led all qualifying MLB players this past year with 59 homers and a .631 slugging percentage en route to his first MVP selection. The towering 6’6″ right-handed hitter terrorized NL pitching to the tune of a .281/.376/.631 overall batting line while playing roughly average defense in right field. The Marlins took him in the second round of the 2007 draft, and have since been rewarded with 34.1 wins above replacement level. Stanton ranked seventh in the majors in 2017 with a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity, including the hardest-hit ball all year (122.2 MPH). His .410 wOBA and 156 wRC+ both ranked fifth in MLB.

The 21-year-old Guzman is best known as one of the pieces sent from Houston to New York in exchange for catcher Brian McCann just last winter. The 2015 international signee out of the Dominican Republic posted excellent numbers in thirteen starts for the Yankees’ Low-A affiliate, including a 2.30 ERA with 11.28 K/9 against just 2.43 BB/9. Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs describes Guzman as someone who throws “absolute gas.” The 6’2″ righty reportedly sits around 96-100 MPH with his fastball and can reach back for up to 102. He combines that pitch with an 89 MPH slider; that combination helped him strike out a league-leading 33% of batters faced. KATOH projects him as high as a 4.5 WAR player in the majors.

Devers, 18, was also signed out of the Dominican Republic. The Yankees added the left-handed hitting shortstop to their system just this season for a bonus of $250K; he’s only got 53 pro games under his belt. Devers is best known as the cousin of Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, who was a top prospect in Boston’s system and made his major league debut in 2017. Ben Badler of Baseball America describes the younger Devers as “a wiry shortstop with above-average speed, good hands and quick footwork.” He’s largely put to bed initial concerns about his arm action and arm strength, and has been described by opposing managers as someone who takes away a lot of hits with his glove. While he doesn’t provide much in the way of power, Devers shows good contact ability with the bat. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Devers also has a projectable frame, and confirms that his swing will need some tweaking if he wants to develop any real power.

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