Rangers Looking At “Controllable Starters”
As they begin to consider their possible approaches to the trade deadline, the Rangers are “evaluating controllable starters,” according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The organization also has some rather immediate concerns in the pitching staff with little in the way of obvious solutions, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.
Despite a rather surprising 35-30 start to the year, the Rangers have little but questions in their rotation behind Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. Both of those hurlers could ultimately end up on the block come late July if the team can’t keep pace, which still seems a distinct possibility.
For now, the front office is preparing for both buy and sell possibilities, according to Morosi. That largely states the obvious. It’s also imaginable that the Texas organization will ultimately largely hold pat, or perhaps engage in only a limited buy-side approach. While they canvass the market for possibilities, the Rangers will surely continue to evaluate their roster to see how much staying power it may have.
It’s all but unimaginable that the Rangers will ultimately adopt any sort of extreme approach to the deadline. There really isn’t much hope of chasing down the Astros in the division. While a Wild Card would be quite appealing, particularly with a new park slated to be opened, the Rangers won’t give up too much future value for immediate improvements.
Given all that, the “controllable starters” concept makes some sense on paper. It’s also true that most every other contender will have interest in the same types of pitchers, so there’ll be ample competition. But the Rangers could look for opportunities not only to improve now, but also to get a jump on preparing for 2020 and beyond. GM Jon Daniels has already begun thinking about how the roster can be improved in the coming offseason.
Typically, we thinking of younger, arbitration-eligible pitchers with the term “controllable.” The Rangers may or may not have much success fishing in those waters. It’ll be interesting to see if they also look into some older, more expensive hurlers that won’t come with big prospect price tags. Mike Leake of the Mariners and the Giants’ Jeff Samardzija are among the hypothetical possibilities in this general bucket.
Report: Pirates’ “Preference” Is To Trade Corey Dickerson
The Pirates are interested in finding a trade partner to take outfielder Corey Dickerson, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Dickerson, 30, is earning $8.5MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
As we discussed recently upon Dickerson’s activation, the Pirates are facing obvious roster pressures in several areas. The club is currently carrying only three starters, allowing it to pad its relief corps and accommodate an extra position player, but that’s a temporary measure.
Dickerson was just brought back from the injured list, so he’s only six games into his season. In the interim, the club lost another left-handed-hitting corner piece in Lonnie Chisenhall. But it also welcomed back Gregory Polanco, struck paydirt on a low-cost deal with switch-hitting veteran Melky Cabrera, and saw youngster Bryan Reynolds (also a switch-hitter) burst onto the scene.
Cabrera is said to be drawing interest from “multiple contenders,” per Rosenthal. He is now slashing a cool .335/.375/.462 through 185 plate appearances. He’s not a good defender and won’t sustain a .370 BABIP, but certainly seems a worthwhile target as a bench bat. Cabrera’s low-cost, low-commitment contract situation ($1.15MM salary) is surely of appeal as well.
Rosenthal says that the Bucs “want to take another stab at contention before moving Cabrera and possibly others.” That makes sense, as the club isn’t yet buried in the division with more than six weeks to go until the trade deadline. But it’s hard to square that with the idea that the Pittsburgh org prefers to ship out Dickerson, who is a younger player with a better recent track record than Cabrera. Last year, Dickerson posted a 115 wRC+ and graded as a high end defender.
All in all, it’s a bit of an odd situation for the Pirates, who scrambled for outfielders and now find themselves in dire need of pitching. There isn’t much reason to think that a contender will part with a worthwhile, immediate rotation (or even relief) piece for one of these outfielders.
Cabrera may be the more cost-efficient option for the Bucs, but they will surely be selling low on Dickerson unless he goes on a tear over the next few weeks — in which case it’d be all the harder to move him unless the team is itself out of the race. Putting Polanco on the block might create some opportunities for meaningfully addressing the pitching staff, but he has had some ups and downs and that’d be a much more consequential decision.
The Dodgers Bullpen Probably Looks Worse Than It Is
“It’s not that far off,” said Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly last night after his latest rough outing. “It probably looks worse than what it really is.”
Kelly was referring to his own situation when he chatted with reporters (including Pedro Moura of The Athletic, Twitter link). But he probably could have spoken in similar terms of the Dodgers bullpen as a whole.
The results haven’t been great; I won’t argue with you there. But the Dodgers actually sit in the middle of the pack as a unit by measure of both ERA and fielding independent pitching. There have been blown saves, but not a dramatic number in comparison to some other clubs.
In many respects, it’s not even worth thinking too hard about how this relief unit looks right now. The Dodgers are blitzing an otherwise mediocre division. At 45-21, the team is easily the class of the entire National League to this point. The relief corps hasn’t been bad enough to jeopardize a seemingly inevitable march to a division crown.
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman certainly isn’t blind to the issues that do exist, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register recently covered. But he’s also focused primarily on the end goal: “It’s about feeling like we’ve got four to five ‘pen arms in October that we trust and can help us,” says Friedman. “That’s what you need.”
So, can the Dodgers get to that desired handful of trustworthy hurlers? (And maybe settle upon two or three nice complimentary specialists to fill out a postseason roster?) Beyond acknowledging the potential for outside additions, Friedman says he still believes in the players currently populating the major-league roster. He also cites “other guys that are knocking on the door for an audition at some point.”
Kenley Jansen remains the rock. He’s not what he was, but it’d be foolish to say he’s washed up when he’s carrying 12.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. Pedro Baez has his warts but keeps getting results; he’s through 28 1/3 innings this year with a 3.18 ERA. The numbers aren’t as promising this year as last for Dylan Floro, as he hasn’t continued to suppress home runs, but he’s still managing a 3.13 ERA in 23 frames.
That trio constitutes something of a core, but it’s not the most intimidating of late-inning bunches. And the rest of the arms come with yet more questions. Yimi Garcia and Scott Alexander are among the team’s most-used other hurlers. The former has been torched by the long ball and may be at risk if he can’t find a groove. The latter is exhibiting declining swinging-strike and groundball numbers, but remains at least an interesting change-of-pace arm.
Alexander is the sort of hurler that Friedman seems to be thinking of when he refers to having “enough diversified looks” in the current unit. But what is it that gives the veteran baseball exec confidence that it’s “more about augmenting than tearing down” when it comes to structuring his bullpen?
The sheer volume of possibilities is part of what inspires confidence. It starts with the current or future excess rotation pieces. Ross Stripling has seen a bit of a velo fall-off this year, and has been better in the rotation than the pen, but is an excellent swingman to have around. Lefty Julio Urias has boosted his velocity and swinging-strike rates are up in a relief role. (His future remains clouded by an ongoing domestic violence investigation, though he won’t face prosecution unless he fails to meet the conditions set by authorities.) Veteran Kenta Maeda has been a flexible piece for the Dodgers in years past and will be useful in some capacity come October.
There are multiple swing-and-miss guys amassed at Triple-A, including 40-man members JT Chargois (30 strikeouts in 24 innings) and Josh Sborz (34 strikeouts in 26 innings) as well as experienced former big leaguers Kevin Quackenbush (43 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and Justin Grimm (41 strikeouts in 26 innings). There are a host of other plausible arms bouncing around in the upper reaches of the Dodgers farm. In addition to several hurlers with 40-man spots who’ve already had some prior MLB opportunities, the Dodgers have some untested prospects nearing readiness. Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, and Dustin May are among them.
So did we leave anyone out? Oh, right, Kelly …
The Dodgers clearly targeted him over the offseason, drawn to his big velocity and promising peripherals. Kelly has boosted his strikeout rate to 11 per nine and run up his groundball rate to 55.4%, but he is coughing up 1.69 HR/9 on a 28.6% HR/FB rate. Opposing hitters carry a .377 BABIP and Kelly’s strand rate sits at just 56.9%. There’s cause to believe regression is coming, but he’s also being tuned up for a 49.2% hard-hit rate.
If Kelly can get things on track in the next several weeks, the Dodgers will have added confidence in their ability to trot out five strong arms late in the year. Regardless, the late-inning group looks in need of supplementation. But that’s not much of a concern for an organization that has so much talent on and around the MLB roster. Friedman will have plenty of options on the trade market. With a huge division lead providing breathing room, the veteran exec sees a path to getting the unit he desires when the time comes: “We’ll operate on dual tracks of doing everything we can to get our existing guys better while canvassing the market.”
Quick Hits: Keuchel, Red Sox, Moncada, Castellanos
After signing a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves last week, left-hander Dallas Keuchel made his first minor league tuneup with their Single-A affiliate Monday. Unsurprisingly, the accomplished Keuchel looked too advanced for the level, throwing seven shutout innings and 77 pitches of one-hit, one-walk ball with nine strikeouts. The soft-tossing 31-year-old’s fastball sat in the high 80s and maxed out at 89, per Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Afterward, Keuchel suggested he could return to the majors following one more minor league start. Braves manager Brian Snitker said that “we’ll talk to [Keuchel] to see where he’s at” after he takes the mound one more time. Barring setbacks, though, Keuchel does seem likely to end up in Atlanta after that outing.
More from around the majors…
- Red Sox pitching prospect Darwinzon Hernandez will make his first career start Tuesday against the Rangers, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com relays. MLB.com ranks the southpaw as the Red Sox’s best pitching prospect and No. 3 overall farmhand. The 22-year-old Hernandez got his first taste of the majors earlier this season with 2 1/3 scoreless innings out of Boston’s bullpen. Hernandez has been a mixed bag in 2019 at the Double-A level, where he has averaged a hefty 13.17 strikeouts per nine but has offset that with an untenable walk rate (7.14 BB/9) and a 5.13 ERA in 40 1/3 frames.
- White Sox third baseman Yoan Moncada left the team’s game Monday with upper back tightness, James Fegan of The Athletic was among those to tweet. Moncada’s day-to-day, though he seems optimistic it’s not any kind of serious injury (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). The 24-year-old has arguably been the White Sox’s foremost position player this season, having slashed .295/.348/.506 (128 wRC+) with 12 home runs and 2.1 fWAR in 274 plate appearances.
- With the Tigers out of contention and their top hitter, Nicholas Castellanos, not signed past this season, he has largely checked out from a leadership role, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press observes. However, that doesn’t mean Castellanos isn’t working hard. As Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic explains (subscription required), Castellanos has made a real effort to ameliorate his much-maligned defense. A former high school shortstop, Castellanos struggled at the outset of his big league career at third and has continued to have difficulty since moving to the corner outfield in 2017. Castellanos’ defense still isn’t a plus, as Stavenhagen notes, but the metrics have liked the 27-year-old’s work better during his platform season. So has manager Ron Gardenhire, who told Stavenhagen, “He’s on a mission to become a good outfielder, and I think he’s made a ton of improvement.”
MLB Draft Signings: 6/11/19
The latest noteworthy draft signings from around MLB…
- The Blue Jays have signed 20 picks, including second-rounder Kendall Williams (No. 52), Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports. The high school right-hander from Florida will get $1,547,500, which is more than the recommended slot value of his selection ($1,403,200), per Jim Callis of MLB.com. Callis and colleague Jonathan Mayo ranked Williams as the draft’s 54th-best prospect entering the proceedings, calling the 6-foot-6 hurler “the quintessential projectable high school right-hander.” Despite Williams’ size, he doesn’t have much trouble throwing strikes, according to Callis and Mayo, who note the hurler’s able to touch 94 mph with regularity and suggest he has serious upside. Williams had committed to Vanderbilt before the draft, but his signing will take him out of the Commodores’ plans.
Reds Acquire Tyler Jay From Twins
The Reds have acquired left-hander Tyler Jay from the Twins, according to Roster Roundup. There’s no word on what the Twins received, but they presumably got a meager return for Jay.
The Twins used the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft on Jay, who starred as a reliever at the University of Illinois. At the time Minnesota selected him, there was plenty of optimism Jay would continue to thrive in the majors as either a reliever or starter. But injuries – including to Jay’s shoulder and neck – have helped derail his career since he entered the professional ranks.
The 25-year-old Jay hasn’t yet ascended past the Double-A level, where he has pitched since 2017 and owns a 4.60 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 103 2/3 innings. While assessing the Twins’ prospects this past April, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs wrote Jay remains “a multi-pitch lefty with average stuff, and that seems rosterable.” The Twins disagreed, even after all they invested in Jay, leaving the Reds to hope he’ll one day realize some of his vast potential in their uniform.
Latest On Drew Smyly, Rangers’ Rotation
Rangers left-hander Drew Smyly turned in his latest disastrous performance Sunday during a 9-8 loss to the Athletics, who clobbered him for five earned runs on six hits (including a pair of home runs) and two walks in three innings. Smyly now owns an 8.40 ERA/7.66 FIP in 45 innings this year, and his already tenuous grip on a rotation spot is getting weaker.
Given that Smyly suffered an ankle sprain last month and hasn’t fully healed, the Rangers are at least considering placing him on the 10-day injured list, manager Chris Woodward said (via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Regardless, the playoff-contending Rangers could acquire a starter, which would enable them to eject Smyly from their rotation. The club may be seeking “external possibilities,” Grant writes, but general manager Jon Daniels doesn’t seem optimistic about landing anyone so far in advance of the July 31 trade deadline.
“We don’t have a lot of options. There’s not a ton of pitching readily available,” Daniels said.
As things stand, lefty prospect Joe Palumbo – who made a shaky MLB debut in a win over Oakland this past Saturday – remains their most likely Smyly replacement. Meanwhile, fellow Double-A starter Jonathan Hernandez is not yet on the Rangers’ radar for a promotion, reports Grant, who also names Triple-A righty Seth Maness as a potential call-up. Maness, 30, is a longtime reliever who has never made a start in 252 major league appearances, but he’s working exclusively out of the rotation in the minors and averaging just under six innings per appearance this season. Promoting Maness would require the Rangers to add him to their 40-man roster, Grant notes.
If the Rangers do drop Smyly in favor of Palumbo or Maness, it would still be hard to have much confidence in the back of their rotation. Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Adrian Sampson and Ariel Jurado have all impressed (in a limited sample size in the latter’s case), though the Rangers are likely going to need another competent starter in order to maintain a playoff spot. While the Rangers didn’t enter 2019 looking like postseason contenders, they’re 35-30 with a plus-33 run differential and hold a two-game lead on the AL’s final wild-card spot. That could lead Daniels to buy going up to the deadline, when Matthew Boyd, Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez might be among available starters. However, whether Texas will like its chances enough to make a significant acquisition along those lines is anyone’s guess.
Rick Hahn: Dylan Cease “Not Too Far Away” From Promotion
White Sox Triple-A right-hander Dylan Cease, one of baseball’s premier prospects, is moving closer to his major league debut. While general manager Rick Hahn said Monday that the White Sox won’t “rush” Cease, the executive revealed the hurler’s “not too far away” from jumping to the bigs (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).
Now 23 years old, Cease joined the White Sox in July 2017 in what they hope will go down as one of the most beneficial trades in franchise history. The club sent quality lefty Jose Quintana to the crosstown rival Cubs for four players, including Cease and outfielder Eloy Jimenez. Those two no doubt have the potential to wind up as long-term cornerstones for the White Sox.
Cease was a top 100 prospect when the teams swung the deal, but his stock has soared even higher since he changed Chicago organizations. Cease now ranks as MLB.com’s 19th-best prospect, with Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo crediting the former Tommy John surgery patient’s fastball- and curveball-led repertoire and projecting he’ll become an “impact” major leaguer.
So far in Charlotte this year, Cease has pitched to a 4.10 ERA/3.65 FIP with 10.08 K/9, 3.76 BB/9 and an excellent 57.7 percent groundball rate in 11 starts and 52 2/3 innings. Although that’s not a lights-out ERA, much of the damage came Sunday during a start in which Cease yielded four earned runs on two hits and three walks in two-thirds of an inning. Hahn called that ugly outing “a really good developmental day for” Cease, whom he expects to learn from it.
Depending on when Cease comes up (assuming he does debut this year), he could potentially have some say in a playoff race. Chicago’s certainly a long shot for the postseason, but at 3 1/2 games out of wild-card position, its hopes aren’t dead at this point. The White Sox would likely have a much better shot if they could’ve found superior complements for budding ace Lucas Giolito in their rotation.
Despite Giolito’s spectacular efforts, the team’s starters rank a lowly 25th in the majors in ERA and 26th in FIP. Reynaldo Lopez, Ivan Nova, Carlos Rodon, Dylan Covey and Manny Banuelos have each posted horrid run prevention numbers across at least seven starts apiece. Worsening matters, Rodon had season-ending Tommy John surgery a month ago and Covey went to the injured list Sunday with shoulder inflammation.
Of course, the White Sox have had to make do all season without one of Cease’s fellow standout pitching prospects, Michael Kopech, who underwent TJ surgery last September. The hope is Cease and Kopech will eventually provide two more superb options alongside Giolito. Cease just may get his first opportunity to emerge as a legit major leaguer sometime this summer.
Angels To Sign First-Rounder Will Wilson
The Angels have agreed to sign first-round pick Will Wilson, per a team announcement. Wilson will receive $3.4MM, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. That falls short of the $3,885,800 recommended slot value for Wilson’s selection (No. 15).
Wilson’s a shortstop from North Carolina State who was considered a consensus top 25 prospect entering the draft. FanGraphs (No. 15), ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 19), MLB.com (No. 21) and Baseball America (No. 22) are each bullish on Wilson, who slashed .339/.429/.665 with 16 home runs in 221 at-bats during his final year at NC State.
In their free scouting report, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com write Wilson “has a high floor as a steady up-the-middle defender with surprising power.” He may not possess the speed to stick at short, though, and could end up as a second baseman in the pros.
The Angels went into the draft with just over $7.6MM to spend on picks, so the Wilson signing will unsurprisingly eat into a large portion of that total.
Will The Red Sox & Indians Make The Playoffs?
The Red Sox and Indians entered the 2019 season as popular picks to earn playoff berths. Both teams have been powerhouses in recent years, including in 2018, when the Red Sox went 108-54 en route to a World Series title and the Indians took home their third consecutive AL Central crown. Two-plus months into the season, though, Boston and Cleveland have had to sail through rougher waters than expected. Both teams are just a tad over .500 (the Red Sox are 34-32, the Indians 33-32) and currently sitting outside the AL playoff picture.
Just about everything that could have gone right did for the Red Sox a year ago. Their position players paced the entire league in runs and led the AL in fWAR, and their pitchers were toward the top of the game in ERA and fWAR. None of that’s true this season, however. While Boston continues to enjoy a formidable offense, it’s not the juggernaut it was a season ago. Last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Betts, as well as J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, World Series MVP Steve Pearce and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all seen their numbers dip. Much-improved production from Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez hasn’t been enough to offset the fallen output of that important group.
On the pitching side, ace Chris Sale has come back with a vengeance from a dreadful start, while David Price has also been outstanding. At the same time, though, late-2018 hero Nathan Eovaldi has barely pitched because of an elbow injury (and has struggled when he has taken the mound). Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez‘s run prevention has tailed off, though his peripherals are encouraging, Rick Porcello hasn’t been close to his best self and enemy offenses have roughed up Hector Velazquez. Those starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been somewhat shaky in adjusting to life without the departed Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.
The Indians’ relief unit has taken enormous steps forward since 2018, on the other hand. It’s the rest of their roster that has gone backward. Top starters Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger have either battled serious injuries/illnesses or drastically underachieved. Francisco Lindor is having another great year, but his pal Jose Ramirez has gone from an MVP-level player to someone who can barely lift his OPS over .600. Michael Brantley‘s now in Houston, replaced by players who have been incapable of matching his 2018 production. Jason Kipnis has been horrific, and the Indians’ offseason decision to trade Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauers simply hasn’t worked out to this point.
The Indians’ mediocre play has left them a whopping 10 1/2 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. As a result, the Tribe may have to consider making some difficult decisions this summer as the July 31 trade deadline draws nearer. For now, though, the Indians are very much in the wild-card hunt, behind the surprising Rangers by a game and a half. Boston’s even closer to Texas, which it trails by one and began a four-game series against Monday, but might have trouble overcoming the seven-game advantage the Rays and Yankees have built in the AL East. By the time the regular season wraps up, do you expect the Indians and Red Sox to be part of the league’s playoff field?
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Red Sox and Indians make the playoffs?
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Just the Red Sox 50% (4,059)
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Neither team will get in 32% (2,644)
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Just the Indians 10% (814)
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Both teams will 8% (654)
Total votes: 8,171