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Projecting Payrolls: Boston Red Sox

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As we kick off the seventh installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we visit with the other Sox and reigning champions: the Boston Red Sox.

Team Leadership

The most recent significant ownership change for the Red Sox saw John Henry, Tom Werner, and the New York Times (yes, that New York Times) purchase the club from the JRY Trust, established following the 1992 death of team owner Jean Yawkey, the widow of Tom Yawkey. The Times sold its interest in two separate sales in 2011 and 2012, leaving Henry and Werner as the primary owners and Henry alone as the face of ownership.

The baseball operations department underwent a massive shakeup late in the 2015 season with longtime contender builder Dave Dombrowski joining the fold as President of Baseball Operations with former general manager Ben Cherington stepping aside in a corresponding move. Dombrowski had previously assembled pennant winners in Miami (1997) and Detroit (2006, 2012) before his arrival in Beantown. Over his three seasons, the Red Sox have averaged 98 wins per year, recording at least 93 victories each season.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Red Sox, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

As a major franchise playing in a major city, it comes as no surprise that the Red Sox have spent and spent big year after year.

While Red Sox spending has always been significant, it took a notable jump following the only Yankees World Series win of the past 15 years as the 2010 Boston payroll increased a little over 38 percent from 2009. Since then, the Red Sox have remained near the top echelon of spenders.

That changed in 2018 as Boston blew away the competition financially, finishing the year as the only American League team to pay the luxury tax. The Red Sox made approximately $22 million in luxury tax payments from 2005-17, but they pushed the envelope in 2018, incurring a tax bill of at least $12.7 million and possibly more depending on the final calculation.

International spending has also been a hallmark of the franchise, as was blowing past slot recommendations for draft picks prior to the new rules that severely disincentivized the action. The Red Sox were responsible for arguably the most famous example of overspending international bonus pools under the previous system, throwing a $31.5 million bonus to Yoan Moncada, complete with a corresponding $31.5 million tax payment in February 2015.

The Red Sox also allocated a massive sum to the posting fee paid of $51,111,111.11 to the Seibu Lions in advance of the 2007 season for the rights to negotiate with starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Needless to say, Major League payroll has comprised only a significant portion of team spending, hardly the entirety of it.

Future Liabilities

Unlike some other teams in this series to date, the Red Sox have significant present and future guaranteed liabilities. Here are the guaranteed future dollars with club options highlighted in peach and the opt-out clause for J.D. Martinez that follows the 2019 season shown in light blue.

There is a lot to digest here.

The remaining four years and $127 million owed to David Price naturally jumps out. After a strong debut season, Price hasn’t delivered the ace-level production that the team hoped for when they signed him, but Red Sox fans enjoyed watching Price hoist the World Series trophy this fall after 26 solid postseason innings. He’s hardly an albatross, even if his contract doesn’t offer value at this point.

After a superstar offensive season, Martinez’s contract appears increasingly likely to be a two-year, $50 million deal instead of a five-year, $110 million pact as was guaranteed. If his 2019 is half as successful as his 2018, Martinez will opt out of the deal and pocket the $2.5 million buyout that comes along with the decision to do so. In the meantime, he’ll serve as an essential middle-of-the-order bat for the defending champions.

The remaining multi-year commitments go to players unlikely to help the next championship team in Boston. Pedroia has been a mainstay, but knee injuries may very well render him unable to return to form especially at 35. 2017 indicated that Vazquez had emerged as a defensive force with a palatable, if below average, offensive game at 27. 2018 indicated that 2017 was a mirage. It remains to be seen what value, if any, Boston will milk out of the remainder of Vazquez’s deal.

The remaining current players are all on one-year deals and they all figure to play a starting-level role for the team in 2018. Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender heading toward a record-breaking contract, Porcello won the award himself in 2016, and Moreland, Pearce, and Nunez all figure to get north of 400 plate appearances next year. The club features a ton of walk-year talent.

Of course, the future commitments to players aren’t limited to current Red Sox players by a long stretch. The team owes a staggering $47.5 million to released free agent flop Sandoval and Triple-A 30-year-old Castillo. Perhaps the club will find a taker for Castillo if he comes along with approximately $22 million, though it’s worth noting that he does not count against the Red Sox luxury tax payroll as long as he remains off of the team’s 40-man roster.

Finally, former stars Ramirez and Pedroia will receive just over $34 million between them into the middle of the next decade, a sum that is not insignificant but also doesn’t figure to move the needle much for the deep pockets in Boston. Those amounts have already been accounted for in regards to the luxury tax, so they won’t hurt Boston when making that calculation.

While the guarantees feature plenty of star power, there is no shortage of elite talent to be found among the arbitration eligible Red Sox. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley have long formed a young core for the club. Bradley’s bat has been below average the last two seasons, but Betts and Bogaerts have both regularly combined strong offense and defense to be impact players. With two years of control remaining on Betts and Bradley and one on Bogaerts, the team will likely continue extension talks.  Obviously they have not found common ground to date, and it’s not known whether the Red Sox will succeed in locking down any of the three.

Rodriguez has grown into an above-average starting pitcher, albeit one who routinely misses time with injury issues. He figures to hold a rotation job through the coming years.

The remaining arbitration eligible Red Sox primarily serve to complement the bevy of ultra-talented players listed above.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Perhaps unsurprisingly, not much to date. They’ve been busy winning the World Series and celebrating their newest championship. The most noteworthy disclosure came from Henry following the season when he noted that the team won’t push their payroll to the top luxury tax penalties every season, calling out 2018 as an exception where adding the missing piece was worth the extra expenditure.

Are the Red Sox a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Well this is a tricky one. The Red Sox are obviously massive spenders who routinely find themselves with one of the top five payrolls in the game. Generally speaking, that is expected to be a prerequisite for entering the fray for Harper and/or Machado.

However, Boston has already committed major dollars to its championship core — a core that will only get more expensive in the next two years — and it would seemingly require major roster reconstruction to fit either young star into their group.  In the case of Machado, there would also have to be a resolution of the conflict dating back to his April 2017 takeout slide of Pedroia.

Then again, it’s the Boston Red Sox. They shouldn’t be fully counted out for any big-time talent.

In the end, I’ll say that they’re not players for Harper or Machado. It’s too tough to see the math work from my vantage point.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

More than for any other team that we have examined to date, the luxury tax is going to be a major factor for the Red Sox this winter. If the team makes no additional moves, they’ll have a cash payroll of $214.2 million and a luxury tax payroll of $216.0 million, assuming that Castillo remains off of the 40-man roster and, thus, doesn’t count against their tax payroll. With the luxury tax line sitting at $206 million, it’s awfully difficult to see how Boston gets under the line without sacrificing a key contributor or two. That’s no way to defend a title.

Instead, I suspect that the Red Sox will try to minimize their tax bill and ensure that they avoid hitting the $246 million threshold at which point their top draft pick is dropped 10 spots. It seems overwhelmingly likely that they will incur the 12 percent surtax for exceeding $226 million in luxury tax payroll, but, again, I expect that they will avoid the 42.5 percent surtax for exceeding $246 million in luxury tax payroll.

Provided that they plan to leave a little space for in-season acquisitions, let’s peg them at a spending level that enables the club to replace Craig Kimbrel at the back of the bullpen without breaking the bank.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $230 million cash ($232 million luxury tax)

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $15.8 million

Mets To Hire Allard Baird, Adam Guttridge As Assistant GM’s

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The Mets have landed two new assistant general managers to serve under new baseball operations leader Brodie Van Wagenen. Allard Baird will become vice president and assistant GM of scouting and player development, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). And Adam Guttridge will step in as assistant GM of systematic development, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

Baird comes over from the Red Sox, where he had been the senior VP of player personnel. He previously interviewed for the Mets’ GM opening back in 2010. The former Royals GM (Dayton Moore’s predecessor) recently turned 57 years of age.

Needless to say, having been in Boston dating back to the Theo Epstein regime, Baird is a respected veteran front office member. He got his start in a coaching and scouting capacity but moved into an upper-level role when he became the K.C. AGM back in 1998. His opinion has been an important one with the Red Sox; as the organization puts it in its own front office directory, Baird is (was) “a key voice on all player personnel decisions for the club.”

As for Guttridge, he’ll presumably be tasked with building out a top-of-the-line analytics unit in Queens. As Anthony Rieber of Newsday writes, the 33-year-old has an extensive background in statistical evaluation. He has most recently operated NEIFI Analytics, a company that sells its analysis to MLB clubs and bills itself as offering “a logically consistent and empirically validated view of the baseball landscape from the major leagues all the way down to the NCAA.”

These moves, taken together, represent notable additions for Van Wagenen. His top lieutenants would seem to be of particular importance given his own lack of experience working in (let alone running) a baseball ops department. It’s not yet full certain what other senior voices will remain on hand. Former GM Omar Minaya is expected to stay, but the fate of long-time AGM John Ricco has yet to be decided. Previously, J.P. Ricciardi departed the Mets organization.

MLBPA Extends Contract Of Executive Director Tony Clark

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The Major League Baseball Players Association has voted to extend the contract of executive director Tony Clark, according to Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal. His term of office is now due to run through 2022, meaning he’ll stay in charge through the duration of the five-year Basic Agreement he previously negotiated and lead the MLBPA as it prepares to hammer out a new one in 2021.

Clark, a long-time MLB player himself, took the top union post in December of 2013 after the untimely death of Michael Weiner. At the time, the sport was basking in the glow of booming economic growth and longstanding labor peace. The relatively pleasant pie-dividing process has more recently given way to some bickering at the table. Even as the money continues to stream in, teams have increasingly shown a reluctance to commit whopping future sums to relatively old free agents. That, in turn, has many questioning whether the MLBPA needs to craft a new strategic approach.

There are a whole host of interrelated factors at work, of course, including changes to the aging curve, the still-growing power of analytics in all aspects of the game, and perhaps also increasingly business-focused organizational leadership. And it’d be foolish to leap to any final conclusions about the nature of the player market. The best way to ensure revenue for a team, after all, is still to put a compelling product on the field. And the 2018 attendance drop no doubt was felt by some organizations. Competitive pressures still matter.

Still, the collective bargaining situation — in particular, the outcome of the 2016 negotiations — remains a notable factor in the changing labor market dynamics that have been met with no small amount of consternation by the players. As details of the 2016 CBA deal emerged, it became increasingly clear that the Clark-led union approach was one of tweaking the details of the existing system. There were modifications to the qualifying offer, a process that unfairly impacted a few veteran free agents but did not take a major bite out of the players’ overall take. The minimum salary crept up, as did the luxury tax line, and players added gained notable scheduling modifications and other changes to improve their lot.

At the same time, though, the MLBPA gave some notable concessions to the league that may well have dovetailed with other developments to hur the players’ collective bottom line. In particular, significant new penalties for spending over the luxury line held out the promise of constraining top-level payrolls. Meanwhile, a hard cap went in place for international signings, leaving virtually the entire amateur market subject to strict limits.

Those modifications have pressed established big leaguers from both sides, in a manner that was perhaps not easy to foresee in full. Teams are not only disincentivized from adding additional large salaries to finish off a roster, owing to the taxation scheme, but have less reason to do so given their ability to achieve excess value from young talent filtering up through the farm (which is cheaply replaced through the amateur market). An abundance of power arms, for example, has led to the cost-efficient approach of “bullpenning,” while big-market organizations like the Dodgers and Yankees have increasingly found ways to achieve excellent results without dishing out too many monster contracts. Of course, the more truly youthful players are pressed up to the majors, the sooner they’ll reach arbitration and free agency, and the more “prime” years they’ll have to sell.

It will likely take some time for the market changes to settle out and reveal themselves in full. Still, the problems from the players’ side were on display last winter, as numerous veterans found less receptive markets than they had anticipated. Clark went on a PR blitz as the market stagnated and filed a grievance against four teams that accuses them of failing to properly spend their revenue-sharing funds. As a practical matter, though, there wasn’t much that could be done at that point.

For Clark, looking ahead, there are strategic challenges aplenty. The union may need to consider trying more radical changes to its approach, which has traditionally benefited the most-established ballplayers while leaving relative crumbs for young major leaguers and high-end incoming amateurs (and actual crumbs for most minor-leaguers). Gambling money is another potentially game-changing financial boon for teams — and one that the players will not only want a piece of, but could utilize to their advantage from a public relations standpoint.

No doubt there are many possible strategies on the table. With a new lead negotiator to assist him, Clark is surely preparing for the 2021 CBA negotiations and the interim actions that might be taken. As veteran reliever Andrew Miller puts it, “We have confidence in Tony with where we are and where we’re going.”

Market Chatter: Indians, Moose, Cano, Diaz, Thor, Pads

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The Indians’ rotation has come up in trade rumors over the past month, as Cleveland looks to manage a roster with multiple holes and a crowded payroll that is already at franchise-record levels. However, while Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have been speculative candidates to be moved, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that teams who’ve spoken to the Indians get the sense that Cleveland is more amenable to trading right-hander Trevor Bauer. Kluber is controlled through 2021, while Carrasco is locked into a club-friendly deal through the 2020 season. Bauer, though, is arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $11.6MM in 2019 — a projection he explored at greater length earlier today. If the Indians are to move a starter, there’s some sense behind making it the one of their “big three” who has the shortest amount of team control and least cost certainty, though there’s still no indication that the team is aggressively shopping any of its starters. The ask on Bauer would figure to be huge — likely including pre-arbitration, MLB-ready help — given Bauer’s 2.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9 and 44.5 percent grounder rate in 175 1/3 innings in 2018.

Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Mike Moustakas is “on the radar” for the Cardinals as they look for a corner infield bat, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. While Cards didn’t show much in the way of interest last winter, the absence of draft-pick compensation being attached to Moustakas is an important distinction that has them at least exploring the possibility this time around. Meanwhile, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards “made a competitive bid” for Josh Donaldson before the 32-year-old signed a one-year, $23MM contract with the Braves. There were similar reports about the Cardinals’ efforts to sign Jason Heyward and David Price, and the Cardinals also came up shy in their pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton last year when the slugger wouldn’t waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to St. Louis. Of course, Moustakas is not likely to generate the level of market interest that those players did.
  • There has been quite a lot of chatter regarding Mariners infielder Robinson Cano since it emerged recently that the club would like to find a way to dump his contract, though it’s far from evident whether there’s a particularly realistic match to be found. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand says that some feel the M’s will find a taker, though he later added that Cano hasn’t yet been approached by the team about waiving his no-trade rights or about giving a list of destinations as to which he’d be amenable. (Twitter links.) One key factor in the Cano situation is the notion of the Mariners dealing star closer Edwin Diaz as a means of offloading the money owed Cano. There is indeed some willingness to do so on the part of the Seattle organization, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But it seems clubs with interest in Diaz aren’t necessarily amenable to taking on enough of the $120MM still owed to Cano to make it work. Sherman lists the Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox as teams angling for Diaz, not all of which have any inclination to pick up Cano. That’s not surprising, as it’s an awfully steep dollar amount, even though the long-time star second baseman does still have value himself on the ballfield. That said, Diaz arguably could command something approaching that whopping sum in a hypothetical open-market scenario. After all, he stands out against any other potentially available relievers this winter for his excellence, age, and control. That makes this general structure at least somewhat plausible, though it’ll surely be quite complicated to pull something off.
  • It seems the Mets have quite a few balls in the air at the moment as new GM Brodie Van Wagenen searches for a significant deal that will help jumpstart the franchise. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) and Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) each doused the flames of speculation involving the Mets as a possible match in a Cano swap. But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t explore the subject with the Mariners. SNY.tv’s Andy Martino suggested some possible scenarios involving Cano, though really the basic framework does not seem workable from the Seattle side. Martino says the clubs have batted around a concept in which Seattle would both pay about $50MM of Cano’s salary and take on more in return, such as through Jay Bruce’s $26MM contract, while sending Diaz or Mitch Haniger to New York. Trouble is, the implication there is that the Mets could buy one of those excellent young players for less than $50MM, which doesn’t seem like sufficient salary relief for the Mariners to justify the loss of such core talent.
  • Meanwhile, the biggest name seemingly in play on the Mets’ side is Noah Syndergaard, the uber-talented but health-questionable young righty. The Padres have made clear they won’t part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., per Martino, which dovetails with expectations. While the report indicates that the teams have also discussed San Diego backstop Austin Hedges, he certainly does not profile as a centerpiece in a deal for Syndergaard. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription links) suggests the Rockies could be an under-the-radar suitor for Syndergaard, who’d turn their rotation into a potentially outstanding unit. Though the offense is surely the priority in Colorado, that can be addressed through relatively low-cost investments; adding Thor, meanwhile, is surely an intriguing thought.

Details On Jay Bruce’s No-Trade List

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Mets outfielder Jay Bruce has come up as a potential salary-swap candidate in a variety of hypothetical trade scenarios. Whether or not he’s a realistic trade piece remains to be seen, but his limited no-trade rights could play into the situation.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post provides an updated list, via Twitter, of the slate of teams that Bruce cannot be dealt to without permission. For the present season, Bruce can block deals to the Tigers, Marlins, Athletics, Rays, and Blue Jays. He had previously listed the Orioles and Mariners in place of the Detroit and Miami organizations, but now Bruce can be dealt to Baltimore or Seattle without his permission.

Needless to say, it does not seem terribly likely that Bruce’s blocking rights will impact his potential market. While the A’s and Rays do feature as contending organizations, neither figures to prioritize offloading existing salary — or to seek out Bruce’s rights in a deal. That said, it’s not entirely impossible to cook up scenarios involving the other three teams on Bruce’s list, so their inclusion would add a significant complication to any (purely theoretical) trade talks.

Bruce has had some ups and downs throughout his career, and he’s now coming off of a dry spell at 31 years of age. Last year, he slashed just .223/.310/.370 with nine home runs in 361 plate appearances. He has been much better in the past, of course, and carries a lifetime .247/.318/.466 output at the plate.

Hip issues limited Bruce’s availability in 2018 and could help explain the difficulties, though with $26MM left to go for the next two seasons his contract is not an appealing one. It’s certainly still possible that the Mets could move him in a deal involving one or more other highly paid players. Those interested in contemplating the possibilities may be interested in checking out our recent listing of some of the many potential contract-swap candidates around the game.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Reds ownership has promised a record payroll on the heels of a fourth-consecutive last-place finish in the NL Central and their lowest attendance total in over 30 years. While they’re not likely to be contenders in a particularly tough division, the club figures to be on the upswing in 2019. They’ll almost certainly be looking to add some long-term pieces whom they expect to be on the next competitive team in Cincinnati.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $125MM through 2023, plus $7MM buyout on $20MM option for 2024
  • Homer Bailey, P: $23MM through 2019, plus $5MM buyout on $25MM mutual option for 2020
  • Raisel Iglesias, RP: $24.125MM through 2021
  • Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $62.5MM through 2024, plus $2MM buyout on $15MM option for 2025
  • Tucker Barnhart, C: $9.75MM through 2021, plus $500K buyout on $7.5MM option for 2022
  • David Hernandez, RP: $2.5MM through 2019
  • Jared Hughes, RP: $2.125MM through 2019, plus $250K buyout on $3MM option for 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart | Cincinnati Reds Payroll Outlook]

Not only was 2018 the Reds’ fourth consecutive season of fewer than 70 wins, but they also faced the added humiliation of being the only team in their division to finish with a losing record. They managed to draw just 1.63 million fans to Great American Ballpark, their lowest attendance figure since 1984. The organization’s relationship with its fan base is facing a significant strain at the moment; ownership will have to hope that an overhaul of their coaching staff and intent to add about $30MM in payroll will help revitalize interest in watching the Reds.

Of course, that gesture alone won’t be enough; if they’re unable to field a competitive team, they may again be looking at a sparse turnout in 2019. Fortunately, they’re likely to add wins by virtue of internal improvements alone. Young players such as Jesse Winker, Luis Castillo and Jose Peraza are solid bets to take additional steps forward, and they may have some cavalry on the way in the form of top prospect Nick Senzel. Certainly, nobody expects the Reds to become a winning team due solely to surge from within. But with a solid position-player core already in place — led by Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Scott Schebler, and Scooter Gennett (who’s in his final season of contract control) — those up-and-coming players could give fans something to cheer for if things break right.

Clearly, to move the needle toward contention, the Reds will need to go outside the organization at some point. The club has clearly signaled it intends to do so this winter, though that does not mean that it anticipates any wild spending that would tie up too much future payroll space.

The first and most obvious place to add wins is to a rotation that has perennially been one of the worst in baseball of late, having finished 30th, 29th and 27th in Fangraphs WAR among MLB teams in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. DeSclafani is a lock for a rotation spot if he can remain healthy (though that’s not a given), while Castillo and Tyler Mahle will take up two more. Beyond them, Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson are among the potential rotation candidates, but neither has yet to make good on his once lofty prospect status. Ergo, the biggest item on Cincinnati’s docket will be to add at least one viable major-league starter, and quite likely a second.

That’s more than just pure logic; it echoes recent sentiments laid out by president of baseball operations Dick Williams, who hopes to add a pair of pitchers this winter. That doesn’t necessarily mean two starters, but Cincinnati’s already been connected to several prominent names on the trade market, including Indians aces Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco and high-powered Mets hurler Noah Syndergaard. Needless to say, those are some rather big names who’ll draw significant interest and may not be moved at all; it’d remain a surprise to see any land in Cinci.

It’s not apparent what they’d be able to offer a club with clear intentions to contend in 2019, unless they’re willing to part with Senzel (which seems unlikely), but Williams will surely be knocking on plenty of other doors as well. He’s said to have contacted the Yankees about Sonny Gray, and the Reds were reportedly involved in the James Paxton sweepstakes before he ultimately went to the Bronx. Hurlers such as Marcus Stroman and old friend Mike Leake could conceivably make sense in the right circumstances. Certainly, the club possesses the means to do a significant deal; it would be irresponsible not to point out that the Reds have an impressive collection of upside prospects in the lower minors, so they’ve got a plethora of enticing ways to ignite a conversation.

The free-agent market as an alternative is a much more blurry picture. On the one hand, Williams has suggested that the club plans to be “aggressive” in front of available players and their agents. On the other, some whispers we’ve heard strongly hint that the Reds are unlikely to be in play for any of the top-tier arms on the market. If that’s true, one might surmise that any pursuit of high-end starters beyond due diligence is unlikely. Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi and perhaps even J.A. Happ might not fall within the Reds’ line of sight.

Further illustrating that point (within the above link) is the rumor that the club is seeking to add a mid-rotation arm and a middle-to-late-inning reliever. Missing on the top of the market (should it come to pass) might leave some fans feeling disappointed, though it’s plenty arguable that reaching for a costly veteran now would be unwise.

If there’s a particularly interesting fit on the open market, it could be Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Unless the club’s scouting department is severely down on him in comparison to the rest of the league, it seems a near certainty that the Reds will join the pursuit. Kikuchi’s relative youth would fit perfectly within the puzzle of a rebuilding club on the upswing, and while he’ll command a lengthy contract, the initial guess at MLBTR is that he won’t command a significant sum in terms of average annual value. It’s speculation to be sure, but Reds fans will want to pay attention to the rumblings that surround the Seibu Lions star.

While Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez also could fill innings as veteran rotation pieces, the only player they’ve actually been connected to is Matt Harvey, their lone outgoing free agent. The right-hander and former All-Star was traded to Cincinnati early on in the season after being designated for assignment by the Mets, and went on to make 24 starts for his new club to the tune of a 4.50 ERA. While that performance seems more indicative of a back-of-the-rotation arm, he had somewhat more encouraging peripherals for those who can look beyond his proneness to the long ball. As a Red, Harvey posted a strong 3.96 K/BB ratio with a 4.14 xFIP. And of course, he still tempts a spark of upside based on the talent he showed earlier on in his career. It wouldn’t be prudent to expect an All-Star-type resurgence, but for the two-year, $22MM contract MLBTR predicts for him, he could be worth serious consideration.

As for the “middle-to-late-inning reliever” the Cincinnati brass is said to be seeking, there are myriad options in free agency to choose from. One would think the size of their market makes a Craig Kimbrel pursuit a challenge, but between the #17 and #26 spots on our free agent rankings sit no fewer than seven talented, proven bullpen arms who could be feasible targets for the Reds. That they’re planning to up their payroll by $30MM means that any of those players could be very real options, and would help add to an already-solid back-end trio of Iglesias, Hughes and Amir Garrett. Failing a free-agent signing, the club has more than enough resources to pursue options on the trade market.

Though it’s true that investing in relief pitching can be an iffy way to tie up resources, the outdated notion of paying big cash for a tried-and-true closer has largely gone by the wayside. The Reds already locked in a price for their own ninth-inning man, regardless, with a three-year pact with Iglesias that provides some cost certainty/savings (but does not expand the club’s control). Even adding a few lesser relievers could be sensible approach for the Reds, perhaps helping them to pick up a few extra winnable games and/or generate trade assets. While the club’s 2018 relief corps featured a few solid performers, after all, it was only a middle-of-the-road unit overall. And several hurlers profile as possible regression candidates after outperforming their peripherals last year. Boosting the depth, then, would certainly be warranted even if more significant additions aren’t in the offing.

The Cincinnati offense is a bit of a clearer picture. The club’s two through six positions are each assigned to a solid player with an optimistic outlook, making their infield probably the biggest strength of the team. Turning an eye to the outfield, however, reveals a generally less-impressive cast with plenty of question marks. The current alignment projects to feature Hamilton in center, with Schebler and Winker at the corners. Senzel’s gotten some outfield reps, but there’s no telling whether or not he’ll be deemed ready to contribute in the season’s first half, and that’s to say nothing of his injury history.

Frankly, it’s not hard to see where an upgrade would go, if one is pursued. Hamilton and Schebler just do not profile as first-division regulars. Each is a useful player — the former, a potentially dynamic reserve; the latter, a sturdy piece — but neither has shown the capacity to sustain significant production. Whether Winker can do so remains to be seen. Regardless, all three are either left-handed hitters or, in Hamilton’s case, a switch-hitter who’s best utilized against right-handed pitching. It’s a situation that cries out for a high-quality, right-handed hitting addition. Perhaps it’s too pie-in-the-sky to suggest A.J. Pollock, but he’d be a nice match who’d push Hamilton out of everyday duties in center (if not onto the trade block) while representing a multi-year solution up the middle. In that scenario, Senzel would be free to finish his development and step in at second for a departing Gennett.

That’s the sort of move a clear contender would consider. Whether it’s one this club will or should pursue is surely debatable. There’s a difference, after all, between a season of positive momentum and one of serious contention. While the Reds are certain to improve on their win totals from the past four years, their division is stacked with formidable foes in the form of the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals. Each of those teams not only places a heavy roadblock upon the path to a division title, but they’ll downright make it difficult for the Reds to eke out interdivisional wins. Cincinnati will need to face those clubs a total of 57 times in 2019, and without a major facelift and some significant luck they probably won’t be considered favorites to win any individual games against their intimidating foes.

With that in mind, the Reds would be irresponsible to cash in too many of their prospect chips in an aggressive win-now push. Rather, we’re more likely to see them make future-oriented moves that improve the team now without jeopardizing their long-term outlook. Spending money is something of a different question, though there too it’s necessary to keep the future spending power in mind. Perhaps taking a shot at a controllable, buy-low trade target such as Michael Taylor or Keon Broxton is likelier than pursuit of Pollock, for instance. The Reds did quite well, after all, to score Gennett under similar circumstances. Of course, that move was made two seasons back, and fans wouldn’t be wrong to feel that the team ought to have greater urgency now than it did then. After all, Gennett, like Hamilton, could be dealt away or reach the open market without ever having been a significant part of a winning Cincinnati ballclub.

Even if they won’t be favorites to play into October this year, Reds fans have quite a fun winter ahead of them. After all, the long-suffering Cincinnati baseball fans can finally sense the other side of the rebuild materializing on the horizon. What’s more, the moves made and players acquired this offseason will (hopefully) help bring the next contending Reds team into focus. Expectations should remain tempered, but it’s finally a fun time again to be a Reds fan.

Coaching Hires: Jays, Mariners, Dodgers, D-Backs, Pirates

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This offseason has brought quite a lot of coaching turnover, yet we’ve not heard anything regarding Red Sox pitching guru Brian Bannister. That’s not only by design, but is included in his contract with the club, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston writes in an interesting look at a key figure in the Boston organization. It seems the Red Sox will continue to enjoy Bannister’s services for some time, even if other organizations might have loftier positions to offer.

Here are some of the latest coaching decisions from around the game …

  • The Blue Jays have rounded out their coaching staff under new skipper Charlie Montoyo. Former Double-A manager John Schneider is heading up to the big club, though his precise role isn’t yet clear. Other recent hires include Mark Budzinski as first base coach and Shelley Duncan as field coordinator, as Robert Murray of The Athletic reported (Twitter links). The former comes from the Indians’ staff, while the latter had been managing on the Diamondbacks’ farm.
  • Tim Laker has been announced as the new hitting coach of the Mariners. He had been in an assistant’s role with the Diamondbacks for the past two seasons. A former MLB backstop, Laker will be tasked with stepping into the shoes of the legendary Edgar Martinez, who shifted to a broader role as organizational hitting advisor.
  • The Dodgers have decided to bring on Robert Van Scoyoc as their new hitting coach, according to Pedro Moura of The Athletic (via Twitter). He is also coming from the D-Backs organization. This’ll be Van Scoyoc’s first stint on a MLB staff, and it comes at just 32 years of age. He’s best known for helping to re-launch J.D. Martinez into stardom as a private hitting coach.
  • Needless to say, the Diamondbacks have some holes to fill in this area. Eric Hinske will be part of the picture, as he is set to join the team as the assistant hitting coach, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter). He will work alongside recently hired hitting coach Darnell Coles. Hinske recently held the top hitting coach slot with the Angels and Cubs.
  • In another hitting move, the assistant job of the Pirates will be handled by Jacob Cruz. The 45-year-old was most recently the minor-league hitting coordinator of the Cubs and previously worked in the Diamondbacks organization. A former big-league outfielder, Cruz is slated to pair with new hitting coach Rick Eckstein.

Reds Agree To Three-Year Deal With Raisel Iglesias

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NOVEMBER 27: Iglesias will receive a $6MM salary in 2019, followed by $9MM and $9.125MM paydays, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 21: The Reds announced today that they have agreed to a three-year deal with closer Raisel Iglesias. It will promise him $24.125MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter), but won’t expand the team’s control rights.

This is a fairly unusual contract agreement; though we have seen an increasing number of multi-year, arbitration-only deals, they are typically of shorter duration and in some cases give the team additional option years. In this case, though, Iglesias was playing under an unusual contract in the first place, having signed a deal that would no longer be permitted under MLB’s international rules.

Under his original contract, Iglesias had the right to exit the guaranteed portion of the deal and enter arbitration. He elected not to do so last year, but still had the right to turn down the $5MM payday he already had in hand for 2019.* Whether or not he’d have done so is not clear, but perhaps he’d have rolled the dice on boosting his salary both now and in the future. Certainly, barring a disastrous intervening campaign, it was highly likely he’d have elected to test the arb process in 2020.

Where things get confusing with this deal is the 2021 campaign, the final year covered. Under his original contract, which runs only through 2020, he did not obtain the right to elect free agency early. Accordingly, he’d already have been controlled through 2021 regardless of today’s extension. That distinguishes it in a critical way from, say, the recent extensions secured by Brad Hand (link) and Felipe Vazquez (link).

In other words, this deal is all about resolving the salary uncertainty and fixing a price tag for Iglesias. The Reds will lock into a new payday to shave off some of the earning upside for Iglesias. Instead of the $10MM total he was promised over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, with the upside to earn more in those years and in particular in 2021, Iglesias will now secure an additional $14.125MM in guaranteed money. It’s certainly possible he could have earned more than that through arbitration, with good health and continued saves tallies, particularly if he had opted into arbitration this season and secured a big new starting point.

As part and parcel of the financial maneuvering, this move represents an indication that the Reds expect Iglesias not only to remain a productive reliever, but also to hold down the closer’s role. Saves, after all, are a key driver of reliever earnings in arbitration. Of course, it’s also still possible he’ll be shipped out to another organization, but this contract may also be intended in part as a commitment to a core player.

Iglesias, who’ll turn 29 before the start of the 2019 campaign, showed quite a bit of promise as a starter in his debut season of 2015. For reasons that remain somewhat unclear, he was bumped into the bullpen in the ensuing season and ultimately slid into the ninth inning. Iglesias has since mostly functioned as a traditional closer, with occasional multi-inning appearances but not enough to stand out.

Though it’s tantalizing to think of what might have been, Iglesias has thrived as a reliever. In 163 total appearances from the pen, he has compiled 201 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with 10.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9, picking up 64 saves along the way. He sits in the 96 mph range with his average fastball and still leans on both a change and curve. Iglesias has been utterly dominant against righties and solid-enough against left-handed hitters; in the aggregate he’s among the game’s more effective relievers.

*The original version of this post mistakenly stated that Iglesias had decided not to opt out of his 2019 guaranteed salary. In fact, he had only previously decided against doing so in 2018. 

Brewers Avoid Arbitration With Erik Kratz

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The Brewers announced today that they have avoided arbitration with catcher Erik Kratz. The deal promises him $300K and provides a $1.2MM salary in the majors, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).

Kratz had been projected by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.7MM through the arbitration process. The team understandably wasn’t interested in paying quite that amount, so instead worked out an agreement that will provide Kratz more certainty than the standard arb contract (which promises only thirty days of salary as a starting point) but will limit what he can earn if he sticks on the MLB roster.

The 38-year-old Kratz did not even touch the majors until he was already in his age-30 season. He has now appeared in nine-consecutive MLB campaigns, though he also hasn’t generally commanded much of an opportunity to play.

It came somewhat out of the blue, then, when the Brewers acquired Kratz in the middle of the 2018 campaign and installed him as a not-infrequently-used backup. He ended up striding to the plate 219 times, one more than his previous season high (2013, with the Phillies).

Certainly, the results on offense weren’t much different than might have been expected. Kratz produced a meager .236/.280/.355 slash, which maps to a 70 wRC+ — only marginally better than his career 65 wRC+.

Of course, there’s quite a bit more than hitting to the job of a reserve catcher. Kratz excelled at framing pitches and smothering balls in the dirt, while also drawing plaudits from the Milwaukee organization for his game calling, work ethic, and clubhouse presence.

Clearly, the club valued what he brought to the table. After seeing MLB action with seven teams, then, it seems Kratz has found something of a home. Whether he’ll open the season on the active roster, and if so whether he’ll last, remains to be seen. But it’s still a continuation of a great story for a respected veteran grinder.

MLB Announces Gaming Partnership With MGM

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Major League Baseball has announced a partnership agreement with MGM Resorts International. Among other things, the agreement makes MGM the “Official Gaming Partner of MLB.”

It’s unsurprising, but still quite notable, that the league appears to be embracing fully the onset of widespread legal gambling. There’s an immense amount of money to be made, after all, and MLB is sure to make more of it by participating without reservation. Daily fantasy sports may well prove only to have been a starter dish.

Some kind of engagement was inevitable when the Supreme Court opened the door to states to legalize gambling back in May. At the time, the league said its “most important priority is protecting the integrity of our games.” That topic is mentioned again in the MLB-MGM press release, though specifics remain unknown.

What is clear now is that MLB will jump into the exploding gambling market with both feet. MGM is set to “domestically promote its brand and gaming options across MLB’s digital and broadcast platforms,” with the sides also expressing an intention to seek “additional fan engagement offerings to be jointly developed.” It seems we can safely anticipate a high-visibility marketing campaign in the coming season.

Beyond that, MLB will allow MGM non-exclusive access to its statistics feed as well as an exclusive right to plug into “enhanced statistics.” Just what that means is anyone’s guess, but we probably oughtn’t be surprised to see prop bets on Statcast feats.

If you think that sort of thing sounds wild, gird yourself. Commissioner Rob Manfred emphasized today that the pacing of a baseball game allows for “an opportunity to be creative with respect to the types of wagers” that can be facilitated in the midst of a game, as ESPN.com’s Darren Rovell tweets.

Full details obviously remain unknown, and the league is sure to remain mindful of some potential pitfalls (especially given the game’s history with gambling). In the aggregate, though, it seems the initial approach is one of expansive engagement, not of wary first steps. Needless to say, it’s a brave new world for baseball.

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