Reds See Themselves As Trade Deadline Buyers
Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams chatted over a few elements of the club’s trade deadline approach with C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link). Of particular note, he left no doubt of the organization’s intention to seek roster improvements over the next few weeks.
“We’re going to look around to see what we can do to make us better, which would put us in the buyer category,” says Williams. “We feel like we’re in the thick of the race so we think it’s important to see what we can do to improve the club,” he went on to explain.
The Reds have been much better since a terrible start to the season. But they don’t look much like a typical contender at 41-46. Fortunately, they’re far from buried due to the failure of any single NL Central rival to pull away from the pack. Entering play today, just 4.5 games separated the cellar-dwelling Cincinnati club from the pace-setting Cubs. (The second-place team in the NL West faces three times the deficit.)
It’s sensible for the Reds to continue pressing under the circumstances. They parted with some prospect capital for near-term improvements over the winter. While everything hasn’t gone according to plan, the club has little reason to pull out of the race now with a sell-off that likely wouldn’t net all that much future value.
That’s not to say that the Cincinnati front office intends an all-in approach. Williams says the club won’t “focus exclusively on this year, but we will be looking to see if we find deals that make us better.” With a determination to improve the club’s outlook now and in the near future, it seems that Williams and his staff will be most intrigued by controllable targets. (That said, he did not rule out entirely the possibility of limited rental acquisition efforts.)
If the Reds are in it to win it, then it seems the NL Central will have five buy-side clubs. The Pirates could yet pivot, or at least consider deals that improve their future outlook without stripping too much immediate talent from the roster. But they won’t be true sellers if they stay within a few games of the pace. A rapid turn from the Cincinnati org or one of its competitors could yet change the math, but it appears likeliest that the full pack will remain in the chase.
It is fascinating to consider the ways in which this dynamic will shape the market. For one thing, most if not all of the potential rental targets on these rosters won’t be put up for sale. Even if most of the teams only operate as limited buyers, all will presumably be looking into adding assets. That’ll skew the overall market development quite a bit — particularly if the NL Central teams engage in any amount of direct transactional competition or hot stove one-upmanship with their inter-division competitors.
A Breakout Reliever Emerges For Rays
Rays reliever Emilio Pagan was not the headliner in a three-team offseason trade featuring Tampa Bay, Oakland and Texas. That honor went to infielder Jurickson Profar, whom the Athletics acquired from the Rangers in the swap. However, between Pagan and Profar – the two major leaguers involved in the deal – it’s the former who has been the more valuable player so far in 2019.
Although Pagan just debuted in the majors in 2017, he’s already something of a journeyman. Pagan spent his rookie season as a useful piece of the Mariners’ bullpen before going to the Athletics in a trade prior to the 2018 campaign. While Pagan wasn’t that effective in his lone year with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the Rays’ go-to relievers since they recalled him from the minors in mid-April.
Pagan, a 28-year-old right-hander, has recorded a 1.75 ERA with 11.75 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 36 frames, making him one of the majors’ premier relievers in the run prevention and K/BB categories. Pagan also ranks 11th among all pitchers in weighted on-base average against (.221) and an even better third in xwOBA (.220), trailing only elite relievers Josh Hader and Kirby Yates in the latter department.
Pagan’s transformation into a great reliever, at least this year, has come with a change in pitch mix. He has always leaned on two offerings – a four-seam fastball and a slider – but the usage of each has changed significantly since last year. Pagan’s throwing his four-seamer 55.5 percent of the time, down from 64.5 in 2018, and has upped his slider usage from 29.4 percent to 40.6 in the same span. Both pitches have produced excellent results to this point, especially his fastball. Hitters have mustered an awful .200 wOBA/.156 xwOBA against it, thanks in part to an increase in velocity. The pitch averaged 93.8 mph in 2018, but it has shot to 95.4 this season. Unsurprisingly, the whiff percentage on Pagan’s four-seamer has risen substantially since 2018, having gone from 25.8 to 34.9 percent.
As you’d expect, with his strikeout rate and velocity at an all-time high, Pagan has fooled more hitters this year. Pagan’s chase rate is almost 4 percent better than his career mark, hitters have made 4-plus percent less contact against him than usual, and his swinging-strike rate is roughly 2.5 percent superior to his lifetime mean. While the average reliever has drawn swings and misses at an 11.8 percent clip this season, Pagan’s at 17.1 – good for ninth in the majors.
When batters have made contact against Pagan this season, it hasn’t been as easy to elevate the ball. At a piddly 24.9 percent, Pagan posted the majors’ last-ranked groundball rate among relievers from 2017-18. That number has elevated to an even 40.0 since he joined the Rays. With help from his uptick in grounders, home runs have become rarer against Pagan, who rated last among relievers in HRs per nine (1.60) over his first two seasons. He’s now surrendering just one per nine, which checks in well south of the league average (1.34).
It’s true Pagan is benefiting from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 90.2 percent strand rate, two figures that could be difficult to sustain. But he’s handling both same-handed and lefty hitters, and Statcast is quite bullish on his work. At this point, Pagan looks like one of the majors’ most underrated additions of last winter and someone who could help pitch the playoff-contending Rays to the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Zack Cozart To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
6:05pm: GM Billy Eppler says that Cozart will not return to action this year, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group was among those to tweet. The club is reinstating backstop Kevan Smith from the IL to take the place of injured catcher Jonathan Lucroy.
4:55pm: The Angels announced today that infielder Zack Cozart will undergo an “arthroscopic debridement of his left shoulder.” He has been shifted to the 60-day injured list, making roster space for today’s earlier transactions.
It’s not clear at the moment just what the expectations are moving forward for Cozart, whose tenure in Los Angeles has been an unmitigated disaster. There is no indication at present whether he will attempt to return later this season, though there does not appear to be much cause for optimism at this point.
Cozart had already been out for about a month when he revealed that his attempt to return without surgery had stalled out. After a few more weeks of waiting, he’ll now go under the knife. His three-year, $38MM contract expires at the end of the 2020 campaign.
When they signed him, the Halos hoped that Cozart would team with Andrelton Simmons on the left side of the infield to form an outstanding defensive and solid offensive pairing. Instead, Cozart has struggled to stay on the field and performed miserably when he has been able to suit up. The 33-year-old owns a meager .190/.261/.296 batting line in his 360 plate appearances in Anaheim.
Mets Release Matt Kemp
The Mets have released outfielder Matt Kemp, according to the International League transactions page. He had been with the organization on a minors deal.
Kemp, 34, only took 36 plate appearances in eight games with the Mets’ top affiliate. He turned in an unremarkable .235/.278/.324 slash there and obviously was not viewed as a candidate to ascend to the MLB roster. Before that, he struggled to a .200/.210/.283 batting line in 62 major-league plate appearances with the Reds.
A broken rib limited Kemp earlier this season. That seems also to be the cause for his unavailability at Triple-A Syracuse. If he’s able to get back to health, it seems likely that some other organization will take a shot on a minors deal. Kemp did pop 21 long balls and carry a 122 wRC+ in over five hundred trips to the plate with the Dodgers in 2018. That said, the former star’s long-term outlook in the game is obviously in doubt.
Indians Acquire Phil Maton From Padres
The Indians have acquired righty Phil Maton from the Padres, per a club announcement. International bonus poll space is headed to San Diego in the deal.
In other moves, the Friars announced that that they have selected the contract of righty Andres Munoz. That explains the need to free a 40-man roster. Catcher Austin Allen is also coming to the majors, with backstop Austin Hedges and lefty Eric Lauer being moved to the bereavement list.
Maton, 26, has appeared at the MLB level in each of the past three seasons. Through 114 2/3 total innings, he carries a meager 5.02 ERA — a mark that has skyrocketed this year, in particular.
That said, there are still reasons for some optimism. Maton has shown an ability to generate swings and misses (13.3% for his career). And he has dominated at Triple-A in recent years.
For the Indians, it was easy to take a shot and add some depth. Righty Cody Anderson won’t be returning to action this year anyway. He was bumped to the 60-day injured list to create roster space.
On the Friars’ side of the deal, it’ll be interesting to see what the team has in Munoz. The live-armed 20-year-old has shown intriguing K/BB numbers in the upper minors this year. Through 35 2/3 innings, split about evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, he owns a 3.03 ERA with 58 strikeouts and 18 free passes.
Rangers Not Ruling Out Mike Minor Trade
Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels indicated today that he is not willing to rule out a trade of top starter Mike Minor, as TR Sullivan of MLB.com was among those to cover on Twitter.
While Daniels also made clear he isn’t particularly inclined to move the organization’s best pitcher, it’s notable that he’s adopting such an open stance on the subject at this point of the season. With just over two weeks to go until the trade deadline, the Rangers are still sitting just 2.5 games out of Wild Card position. Though the eight-game gap in the division likely can’t be bridged, it’s not inconceivable that the Texas club will be in shouting distance by the end of the month.
All things considered, it’s a practical and realistic position to take for the Rangers’ top baseball decisionmaker. When he addressed the club’s deadline stance a month ago, Daniels said he intended to “stay true to our mind-set of trying to balance, continue to place a priority on the next few years.” He wouldn’t be swayed much by the standings, he further indicated, explaining: “overall we know which direction we’re going in.”
For an organization that hopes to reload with young talent while remaining competitive in the near-term, this has been a bit of a dream season. Not only has the club hit on several (but not all) free-agent investments, and seen strides from some (again, not all) key young players, it has put itself in position for a legitimate run at a playoff spot.
As for Minor … he fits somewhere in the middle on all fronts. Signed to a three-year deal before the 2018 season, he has outperformed all expectations. The $9.5MM salary he’s due this year and next seems to be a bargain now that Minor is through 117 innings of 2.54 ERA ball on the season. While the Rangers would like to continue enjoying Minor’s presence atop a rotation that still has quite a few questions, the chance of cashing in obviously tantalizes as well.
There’s one other possibility, of course: an extension. But Minor is 31 years of age and has a worrying history of arm maladies. Whether or not he’d be amenable to sorting out a new deal isn’t clear, but the Rangers would no doubt need to tread carefully for a contract to present a clear value proposition. At this point, it seems hard to view the possibility of an extension as a significant factor.
Ultimately, Daniels indicates more that he’s open to listening to offers than preparing to shop the veteran lefty. There’s a notable difference there, at least in theory. But the key question will arise at the point of decision. Will the Texas organization stand on a hefty asking price or will it ultimately take the best reasonable offer it’s able to procure?
Braves Activate Anthony Swarzak, Place Grant Dayton On 10-Day IL
The Braves have activated righty Anthony Swarzak from the injured list, per an announcement. To create an opening, the club placed southpaw Grant Dayton on the 10-day injured list with a fractured big toe.
It’s nice to see Swarzak returning quickly from a shoulder malady. After all, he has quickly become an important piece of the puzzle for a relief unit that still clamors for some mid-season additions.
That said, the loss of Dayton makes for an unwelcome development. The 31-year-old southpaw has shown some promise since returning to the majors for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery. Despite showing reduced velocity from his prior work in the bigs, Dayton has generated a 12.4% swinging-strike rate and compiled an 11:3 K/BB rate in 8 1/3 innings.
Dayton will be sidelined for at least a month, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). That will rob the club of a chance to take a closer look at him before finalizing its deadline plans. Regardless, the Atlanta front office seems to have a nice volume of internal pieces to work with. Depth isn’t a particular concern so much as is quality in high-leverage spots. The trick will be deciding how many and what kind of outside additions to make.
Astros Activate Joe Smith, Move Carlos Correa To 60-Day IL
The Astros have activated righty Joe Smith for the first time this season, per a club announcement. He’ll take the spot of Cy Sneed, who was optioned down.
To create 40-man space, shortstop Carlos Correa was bumped to the 60-day IL. Correa will not be eligible to return before the end of the month, though he was not expected to be ready by that point anyway. He’s said to be nearing a rehab assignment as his fractured rib recovers.
Smith has been sidelined all year after suffering an Achilles tear over the offseason. It’s anyone’s guess what he’ll be able to contribute, but the ‘Stros have good cause to find out. The 35-year-old sidearmer is due $8MM this season. He was a solid contributor in 2018, when he turned in 45 2/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
Angels Acquire Adam McCreery, Josh Thole From Dodgers
The Angels have added a pair of players out of the break, acquiring lefty Adam McCreery and catcher Josh Thole from the Dodgers in exchange for cash considerations.
The move will help bolster the Halos’ depth. It’ll also clear needed 40-man roster space for their cross-town rivals. The Dodgers activated outfielder A.J. Pollock today from the 60-day injured list. He’ll be joined by Corey Seager and David Freese in returning to the active roster.
Acquired last November, McCreery had yet to appear at the MLB level with the Dodgers but did hold a 40-man spot. In 35 2/3 upper-minors innings this season, he carries a 4.04 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9. The southpaw briefly cracked the majors last year with Atlanta but has yet to receive a full opportunity — due in no small part to the fact that he has not yet conquered persistent walk problems.
The 30-year-old Thole was once a consistent presence in the majors, functioning mostly as a reserve backstop with the Mets and Blue Jays from 2009 through 2016. He hasn’t cracked the bigs since, however, and has mostly carried marginal offensive numbers at Triple-A that befit his lifetime .242/.313/.306 slash through 1,499 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.
Marlins To Sign J.J. Bleday, Kameron Misner
JULY 12, 3:58pm: Misner has a buzzer-beating, $2.115MM deal, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter links). Mokma will forego his commitment to Michigan State by inking a $557K agreement.
3:18pm: Misner is undergoing a physical, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets, though it’s not clear yet that the sides are otherwise fully squared away on a deal. Heyman adds that 12th-rounder Chris Mokma will agree to terms with the Fish if they can get Misner under contract.
9:20am: Bleday’s bonus will check in at $6,670,000, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets. That checks in over his slot value by a narrow margin of $6,000.
JULY 10, 8:25pm: In addition to their deal with Bleday, the Marlins are close to an agreement with No. 35 pick Kameron Misner, tweets Craig Mish of SiriusXM. Before reaching a deal with Misner, Miami first needed to finish negotiations with Bleday so they could know how much it had left to offer Misner. While no deal is quite in place yet, Mish adds that Misner has already decided he will not return to Missouri.
In his junior season at Mizzou, Misner hit .286/.440/.481 with 10 homers, 10 doubles and 20 stolen bases (in 21 tries). Misner rated as the draft’s No. 26 prospect at BA, No. 30 at MLB.com, No. 31 at Fangraphs and No. 34 at ESPN. He’s regarded as a plus runner who can handle any outfield spot, and he draws praise for a potentially average hit tool and above-average pop. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com call him a potential 20-20 threat if his development progresses.
7:22pm: The Marlins have agreed to terms with No. 4 overall draft selection J.J. Bleday, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The star Vanderbilt outfielder was widely considered a top-five talent and one of the best power bats in the draft. His slot comes with a $6.66MM value.
Bleday, 21, will add a high-end offensive prospect to an improving Marlins system that is currently deeper in pitching than in bats. In his final season at Vanderbilt, Bleday posted a ridiculous .350/.464/.717 slash with 26 home runs, 13 doubles and a triple in 320 plate appearances — all while walking more often (54) than he struck out (53).
Prior to draft day, Bleday checked in as this year’s No. 3 prospect, per Fangraphs, where Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen praised the Division-I home run leader’s power and improved approach at the plate. MLB.com tabbed Bleday as the No. 5 prospect in the draft and gave him plus grades on his arm strength and raw power, in addition to an above-average hit tool. Baseball America ranked him sixth and, like other reports noted that he profiles best as a prototypical right fielder (albeit one who can handle center “in a pinch). ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him seventh, noting an unorthodox swing but a classic power-hitting right fielder’s profile with a history of performance.