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Chris Sale, Red Sox “Mutually Invested” In Extension Talks

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Veteran southpaw Chris Sale discussed the possibility of reaching an extension with the Red Sox in an interesting chat with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The club has previously acknowledged some discussions, but Sale’s comments seemingly take things a bit further.

Sale suggests that there is a serious effort to work out an agreement.“I think we’re both mutually invested in this,” he said. “We’ve both said on both sides that it’s a possibility, for sure.”

He also indicated that he doesn’t consider a deal a necessity. “Obviously, this go-round is a little different than the last one with the contract situation,” Sale said in reference to his original contract extension. Sale says his family’s financial security was a driving force in that accord, but now affords him flexibility in deciding upon his next contract.

It’s still unclear what sort of structure is being considered — “we have a couple different scenarios,” Sale says — but the potential CBA tax impact will surely weigh heavily from the team’s perspective. It’s less clear just what will drive Sale when the time comes to make a final decision. While he indicates that he’s much more concerned with competing on the field than in the hot stove marketplace, he has previously made clear he does have a desire to “set the bar” for other players. Those looking to understand Sale’s perspective will certainly want to give Speier’s interview a full read.

[RELATED: Valuing A Chris Sale Extension]

It’ll be interesting to see where the sides land, if indeed a deal is hammered out. If not, Sale will enter the 2019 season as one of the most closely watched players on the planet. He paces a stacked group of starters in MLBTR’s initial power ranking of the top 2019-20 free agents.

 

Joey Lucchesi Hires CAA Sports

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Padres lefty Joey Lucchesi has hired CAA Sports to represent him, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). His new representation is reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

The 25-year-old Lucchesi is coming off of a rather promising first campaign in the majors. He turned in 26 starts in 2018, working to a 4.08 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

Lucchesi was a bit homer-prone, allowing 1.59 per nine, but otherwise did nothing but impress. He carried a 10.6% swinging-strike rate and 18.6% K%-BB% (placing him among the top thirty starters that threw at least 100 frames).

A former fourth-round pick, Lucchesi should be in line for another full season in the San Diego rotation. Indeed, as Lin notes, he’s even a candidate to toe the rubber on Opening Day. Lucchesi is still two seasons away from arbitration eligibility, though it’s certainly possible that the Friars will consider dangling an extension offer in the meantime.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/6/19

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves:

  • The Tigers made at least one signing after a recent open tryout, though it wasn’t of some heretofore unknown player. (Interestingly, the team has posted anonymous scouting grades on those that showed up to participate.) Per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, via Twitter, the club has a deal in place with utilityman Taylor Motter. The 29-year-old has seen action in each of the past three seasons, turning in a total of 411 plate appearances of .191/.263/.312 hitting with the Rays, Mariners, and Twins. Motter has shown solid plate discipline and a fair bit more power potential in the upper minors than he has at the game’s highest level. He’s also regarded as a good and versatile defender who’s capable of functioning in a reserve role at shortstop. The ZiPS projection system, in fact, likes him as a 1.1 fWAR contributor over 425 hypothetical plate appearances — fifth-highest on the Tigers depth chart.

Rangers Extend Jose Leclerc

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The Rangers have struck an extension with reliever Jose Leclerc, as first reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Leclerc, who is represented by Munger English Sports Management, receives a $14.75MM guarantee over a four-year term. The Rangers will have a pair of options valued at $6MM (2023) and $6.25MM (2024).

Leclerc, 25, was still one season away from reaching arbitration eligibility, so this contract will provide him with no shortage of additional financial security. The organization, in turn, will lock in cost savings and certainty for a pitcher whose prospective earnings could have risen substantially with an ongoing accumulation of saves.

The new contract covers the 2019 season along with Leclerc’s three prospective arbitration-eligible campaigns. He’ll receive a $2MM signing bonus, followed by $1MM, $2.25MM, $4MM and $4.75MM salaries. There’s a $750K buyout on the club option years, which cover Leclerc’s first two potential free-agent seasons (the hurler’s age-29 and 30 seasons).

This deal comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 campaign in which Leclerc took over the Rangers closer’s role and established himself as one of the game’s most exciting young relievers. He ultimately worked to a 1.56 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with 13.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

Leclerc’s offerings — a mid-nineties heater and splitter, primarily — have always been tough to square up. In his first two looks at the big leagues, though, Leclerc did not command them. He dished out a whopping 53 free passes in his first 60 2/3 MLB innings.

Last year, Leclerc nearly halved his walk rate (from nearly twenty percent to 11.2%) while retaining his elusiveness. MLB hitters struggled badly in all respects. Leclerc maintained an excellent 17.1% swinging-strike rate, surrendered only 3.7 hits per nine, and allowed only a single long ball on the year. He was a Statcast darling, placing among the league leaders in wOBA-against (.205), xwOBA-against (.210), exit velocity (83.7 mph), and hard-hit percentage (20.0%).

There aren’t many comparable extensions for early-career relief pitchers — in large part because teams rarely feel compelled to commit future money to such players. In fact, among contracts documented in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, this is actually only the second-ever deal that expanded a team’s control rights over a relief pitcher with more than two years of MLB service but not enough to qualify for Super Two status. Way back in 2011, the White Sox inked a three-year deal with Sergio Santos that promised him $8.25MM and came with three option years. His option seasons were valued at $6MM, $8MM, and $8.75MM, so there was a bit more overall earning power in that pact.

A pair of deal with two exceptional southpaw hurlers are also worth noting as comps. As a Super Two reliever, Felipe Vazquez secured $22MM in promised money while giving the Pirates control over two additional campaigns at $10MM each. That contract covered a similar arb/free agent span as Leclerc’s, but Vazquez had already reached arbitration eligibility — meaning his downside was protected because he was set to receive a significant salary and had established a high starting point for his arb years.

Before that, back in 2014, Sean Doolittle and the Athletics agreed to a deal that looks like the closest comp to Leclerc’s. At the time, Doolittle was one season away from highly likely Super Two qualification. He was promised $10.5MM, which boosted up to $13.5MM when he ultimately did have enough service time to join the Super Two class. That agreement came with $6MM and $6.5MM options. Doolittle was much older than Leclerc, presented a notable health risk, and was a season further away from free agency, though he was also arguably a higher-floor pitcher from a performance standpoint. As with Leclerc’s contract, the Doolittle deal bought out all of the seasons that were already under the club’s control (five in the A’s case) and did so at a point when the player was still a full season removed from arbitration eligibility. In each case, the team’s willingness to pay up was surely due to a combination of two overriding factors: first, a fear of run-away arb salaries; second, the rights to a pair of highly affordable option years.

While Leclerc’s contract doesn’t seem to break new ground, then, it’s still a nice deal for a player who did not originally sign for big money and has only earned at the league minimum to this stage of his career. Few relievers achieve this kind of contract precisely because the earning outlook is so uncertain — especially before reaching arbitration. Leclerc could well turn into a 40-save monster who would substantially out-earn his new deal. But he’s just one injury or a creeping command problem away from missing out on save opportunities and entering arbitration with fairly meager statistical record to work with.

Grant (Twitter links), MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (in a tweet), Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link), and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter) reported the contract terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks’ Silvino Bracho To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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TODAY: Bracho will undergo Tommy John surgery, the club announced. He’ll miss all of the coming season and perhaps also some time in the 2020 campaign.

YESTERDAY: Diamondbacks righty Silvino Bracho has been diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow, tweets Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. The results of his MRI have been sent to Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion, but it’s obviously an unwelcome development for the 26-year-old Bracho, who was lifted from a Cactus League game over the weekend due to elbow discomfort.

Though Bracho is far from a household name, his strong work in 2018 and the fact that he’s out of minor league options had placed him on the inside track for a bullpen job in 2019. Last year, in 31 innings with the D-backs, the right-hander worked to a 3.19 ERA with 9.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate. He also turned in an impressive 15.4 percent swinging-strike rate and a gaudy 35.4 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.

Rather than opening the season in the Arizona ’pen, however, Bracho now seems a lock to open the season on the injured list. Even if Tommy John surgery isn’t required, it seems likely that he’d receive alternative treatment (e.g. platelet-rich plasma injection, stem cell injection) and be shut down for the foreseeable future.

With Bracho likely out of the picture, the locks to make manager Torey Lovullo’s bullpen include right-handers Archie Bradley, Greg Holland and Yoshihisa Hirano, as well as left-handers Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland. The other spots will be up for grabs among a competition featuring Yoan Lopez, Jimmie Sherfy, Matt Andriese, Joey Krehbiel, Robby Scott and Rule 5 pick Nick Green.

The Arizona organization can keep him on the 60-day DL during the season, but will then have to make a decision when it is forced to add him back to the 40-man roster in the offseason. Financial commitments won’t have much of an impact, as Bracho has accumulated only 1.082 years of service to this point.  He’ll accrue MLB service time while he is sidelined, but will still be shy of arbitration eligibility next fall.

Angels Notify MLB Of Harper Comments On Trout Recruitment

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Bryce Harper just launched his tenure as the Phillies’ biggest star, but he’s already considering how to use his gravitational pull to the team’s advantage. In an interview yesterday with Philadelphia SportsRadio 94WIP, Harper made clear he intends to help the Phils land another big fish in free agency:

“If you don’t think I’m gonna call Mike Trout to come to Philly in 2020, you’re crazy.”

That comment was sufficient to spur the Angels to raise the matter with Major League Baseball, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports. The league has been in touch with both teams and is looking into the matter, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, “significant discipline” is not anticipated.

Tampering is prohibited by operation of MLB Rule 3(k), which prohibits “negotiations or dealings respecting employment, either present or prospective, between any player, coach or manager and any Major or Minor League Club other than the Club with which the player is under contract.”

While Harper’s comments seem innocuous enough on the surface, they are of the same ilk as others that have drawn some rebuke in the past. David Ortiz received a warning letter from the from the commissioner’s office after advocating for Edwin Encarnacion to replace him as the Red Sox’ DH. The Yankees admonished Aaron Judge for telling Manny Machado he’d “look good in pinstripes.”

Those situations didn’t warrant a fine, though that avenue is available to commissioner Rob Manfred. The National Basketball Association has doled out penalties and issued stern words on the subject, a reflection of the fact that the league’s fundamental player market structure — more star-driven with shorter, more heavily regulated contracts — is more susceptible to actual interference.

What action will be taken in Harper’s case, if any, remains to be seen and resides largely in Manfred’s discretion. It’s hard to imagine that Harper’s words are of much real-world import, though perhaps there’s cause to nip things in the bud. For the Halos, the last thing they want to see is a two-year-long public recruiting pitch from Harper and others as they try to figure out a way to keep Trout in town for the rest of his career. And for the league, there’s an interest in preventing even this sort of mild tampering from becoming a more frequent issue.

Structuring a penalty that actually disincentivizes these kinds of public comments would be tricky. Any symbolic punishment of Harper would serve only to further publicize his comments. It might also ingratiate him to his new fans in Philly, who are already themselves pining for Trout. A warning letter may seem toothless, but it’s perhaps the most sensible formal action for Manfred to take in this case.

Injury Notes: Mallex, Pena, Hicks, Kendrick

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Mariners center fielder Mallex Smith has been sitting out the early portion of camp due to a strained flexor mass in his right forearm, but doctors have cleared him to begin baseball activities, Greg Johns of MLB.com tweets. Smith has already played light catch and will begin the process of getting himself into game shape. It’s perhaps a stretch to think he could be ready for the team’s two-game set against the A’s in Japan on March 20-21, but he still has a bit more than three weeks to prep for the Mariners’ home opener on March 28. Acquired in the trade that sent Mike Zunino to the Rays this winter, the 25-year-old Smith is penciled in as Seattle’s primary center fielder for the upcoming season. In 141 games for Tampa Bay last season, he hit .296/.367/.406 with a pair of homers and 40 stolen bases.

A few more injury updates from around the game…

  • The competition to serve as the Cardinals’ backup to catcher Yadier Molina may have gained further clarity Tuesday, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Francisco Pena will be sidelined for the next 10 to 15 days due to an apparent oblique injury. It’s awful timing for Pena, who looked like the primary choice to serve as Molina’s backup until the Cardinals signed Matt Wieters to a minor league contract last week. Now, with Pena ailing, Wieters looks all the more likely to secure a roster spot with the Cards come Opening Day. While Pena would be the stronger defensive option of the two, even Wieters’ diminished offensive production in recent seasons dwarfs that of Pena; in 271 plate appearances last season, Wieters slashed .238/.330/.374 to Pena’s .203/.239/.271 (142 PAs).
  • Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks underwent an MRI after feeling discomfort in his back, per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. Doctors didn’t express concern upon viewing the results of the test, and Hicks said he’s confident he’s headed in the right direction. However, there’s also no clear timeline for when Hicks will return to game activity. He’s been out since last Friday, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets that it’ll be “several more days” before Hicks resumes batting practice. Hicks signed a seven-year, $70MM contract extension recently, forgoing a trip through free agency next offseason in the process.
  • Nationals infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick could be headed for an MRI after exiting this morning’s Grapefruit League game with a hamstring strain, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The 35-year-old is hoping for a bounceback season in terms of health after missing the majority of the 2018 campaign due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. Kendrick was excellent in the 40 games he played last year, hitting .303/.331/.474 through 160 plate appearances. He’ll back up all around the infield and in the outfield corners this season, health permitting, as he plays out the second season of a two-year, $7MM contract in D.C.

Salvador Perez To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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A second opinion on the right elbow of Salvador Perez has confirmed the Royals’ worst fears: Perez will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The surgery should put Perez on the shelf for the entirety of the 2019 season.

The Royals first announced that Perez had damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow last Friday. The initial recommendation for Perez was Tommy John surgery, though the team first sought a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache before scheduling the procedure.

Perez, 28, is earning $10MM in 2019 as part of a $52.5MM contract extension to which he agreed prior to the 2016 season. He’s also owed $13MM in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons as part of that long-term arrangement.

A six-time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove winner, two-time Silver Slugger winner and the MVP of the 2015 World Series, Perez has emerged as the face of the Royals’ franchise in recent seasons. Though Kansas City has embarked on a substantial rebuilding effort following its run of prominence (including consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15), there’s never been any serious indication that the club would give thought to moving Perez.

With Perez on the shelf, the top catchers on the Royals’ depth chart at present are Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria — the former of whom is a .218/.274/.333 hitter in 96 MLB plate appearances and the latter of whom has all of 29 MLB plate appearances. Viloria, in fact, jumped from Class-A Advanced to the Majors last season as a September call-up but still seems years away from legitimate MLB readiness.

Suffice it to say, it’d register as a surprise if the Royals didn’t look to address their catching situation in some fashion following the unwelcome news. Martin Maldonado is the most obvious and straightforward choice: a premier defensive backstop with nearly 2000 Major League plate appearances under his belt who (surprisingly) still remains unsigned. Maldonado was most recently connected to the Mariners, though at the time of that report, Seattle was still wary of giving him a guaranteed 40-man roster spot. Light-hitting as Maldonado may be (.220/.289/.350 in his career), it’s still jarring that a player with his defensive prowess has struggled to find a 40-man spot this winter. The Royals, it now seems, can not only provide that but could also provide a fair bit of playing time as well.

Beyond Maldonado, there’s little in terms of proven assets on the open market, though the Royals could certainly wait until later in Spring Training to see if a veteran on a minor league pact with another club opts out of his deal. Veterans such as Nick Hundley (Athletics), Rene Rivera (Giants), Stephen Vogt (Giants), Matt Wieters (Cardinals), Devin Mesoraco (Mets) and old friend Drew Butera (Phillies) are all in Major League camps as non-roster invitees — but not all will earn a roster spot with his current organization. Alternatively, the Royals could also look to the trade market or waiver wire late in camp as a means of acquiring some additional depth. Notably, the Red Sox have reportedly been exploring deals involving their trio of backstops (Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart).

Cameron Maybin Arrested On DUI Charge

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Outfielder Cameron Maybin, in camp with the Giants as a non-roster invitee, was arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol last Friday, according to ABC 15 News, citing a Scottsdale police report. Per the report, Maybin was arrested at 2:43am with a .127 blood-alcohol content, which is north of the legal limit of .08. Maybin was cooperative when arrested, officers noted within their report. Maybin has since appeared in multiple games for the Giants. The team issued a statement today indicating that it is “aware and monitoring the situation.”

The 31-year-old Maybin, signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training back in February, had hoped to secure a spot in a thin Giants outfield mix. Currently, San Francisco has Steven Duggar, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, Chris Shaw and Rule 5 pick Drew Ferguson as options on the 40-man roster. Gerardo Parra, Craig Gentry, John Andreoli and Mike Gerber are among the Giants’ non-roster options, in addition to Maybin.

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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We’ll have 2019 Major League Baseball about two weeks from now, perhaps with Oakland’s Mike Fiers throwing the season’s first pitch to Seattle’s Mallex Smith in Tokyo.  Though Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and others remain unsigned, I’m going to begin our monthly look ahead at the 2019-20 MLB free agent class.  These players are on track to become free agents after the 2019 season.

As you can see in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, we had three notable would-be free agents come off the board in February: Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas, and Aaron Hicks.  I feel that Arenado and Mikolas did about as well as they would have in free agency, while it’s possible Hicks’ deal reflects some trepidation toward the backwards trend in dollars per WAR that teams have instituted the last two winters.  There’s a good chance some of the projected free agents listed here will also forgo the open market if a reasonable contract offer is presented.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.

1.  Xander Bogaerts.  I didn’t begin this exercise expecting Bogaerts to top the list, but if he manages another five win season as Boston’s shortstop, his youth could result in the winter’s longest contract.  Bogaerts, a client of the Boras Corporation, won’t turn 27 until October.  He’s gone year-to-year throughout his career after signing out of Aruba for $410K in 2009.  Bogaerts has now banked over $25MM in his career.  He’s coming off his finest season yet, posting a 133 wRC+ that was second only to Manny Machado among qualified shortstops.  Bogaerts’ defense has long rated as a plus.  While I don’t expect Bogaerts to approach the $300MM contract Machado received, I do think he’ll join the $200MM club with a strong 2019 season.

2.  Chris Sale.  Bogaerts’ teammate Chris Sale has placed top six in the AL Cy Young voting for the last seven years.  The lefty joined the Red Sox in a December 2016 blockbuster trade with the White Sox.  Sale’s dominance has continued in Boston, though he was limited to 158 regular season innings in 2018 due to two DL stints for shoulder inflammation.  Sale’s earning power in free agency will depend on his health this season.  Six years ago, Sale signed a contract extension with the White Sox that has provided tremendous surplus value to both of his clubs.  While it had been standard practice for top free agent starters to be paid through age 36 – see Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, and Yu Darvish (and Zack Greinke, who was paid through 37), the old way of doing things in free agency may no longer apply.  So Sale, 30 this month, will likely seek a six-year contract, though he could have trouble getting there unless one team gets irrational or he accepts a reduced average annual value to max out the guarantee.  In the best case, Sale could inch his way past Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM deal, since Sale will be more than 17 months younger than Greinke was when he reached his historic pact.

3.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole, another Boras client, was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in the first round in 2008.  Cole’s signability changed after the draft, and his family requested that the Yankees not even make an offer.  After three years at UCLA, Cole was drafted first overall by the Pirates.  He was generally solid for the Pirates, including one great season in 2015, before they traded him to the Astros in January 2018.  Cole posted the best season of his career in his first season as an Astro.  Including his record draft bonus, Cole has earned over $33MM in his MLB career on the year-to-year plan.  With another comparable campaign, he’ll be fishing for the seven-year deal signed by Price, Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg.  This would only take Cole through his age 35 season – a reasonable length even in this day and age.  Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal will be four years old when Cole reaches free agency.  My guess is that Cole will fall short of that level but will still sign one of the five largest pitching contracts in baseball history.

4.  Anthony Rendon.  The Nationals let Harper defect to the Phillies on a record $330MM contract, but that might pave the way for a deal with yet another Boras client, Rendon.  Rendon has quietly amassed 13 WAR over the last two seasons, sixth in all of baseball for position players.  The Nationals’ third baseman combines stellar defense with a 140 wRC+ bat, and the result is that he’s every bit as valuable as Harper or Machado right now.  Rendon turns 29 in June, and he’s amassed about $47MM already in his MLB career.  It’s been rare lately that any top position player gets paid past age 35, as Machado and Eric Hosmer did, and many such as Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes were only paid through 34.  We’ll put Harper aside, as only drastically reducing his average annual value allowed for him to be paid through age 38.  This is my way of saying I think Rendon is looking at a six-year deal in the best case.  Back in January, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Rendon was seeking a contract comparable to Altuve, in his extension talks with the Nationals.  That deal was essentially $151MM over five years, though things have gotten worse for free agents in the year since then.  Also since then was Arenado’s seven-year, $234MM extension with the Rockies, notable mainly for its $33.4MM AAV.  Rendon would certainly be within his rights to seek $30-33MM per year in his ongoing extension talks with the Nationals, which may continue into the season.

5.  Paul Goldschmidt.  Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for eight years until last December’s trade to St. Louis.  Goldy inked what became a club-friendly six-year contract back in 2013.  So on the one hand, the slugging first baseman has banked $45MM in his MLB career.  On the other hand, he’ll turn 32 in advance of his next contract.  These days, that probably caps him at a four-year deal unless he takes a light AAV.  The Cardinals clearly would like to make Goldschmidt, a client of Excel Sports Management, more than a rental.

6.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler, 29 in May, posted the best season of his career in 2018.  The righty was drafted sixth overall out of high school by the Giants in 2009 and was traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran in 2011.  He made his MLB debut in 2013 and did solid work before going down for March 2015 Tommy John surgery.  Wheeler ended up going two and a half years between MLB starts, nearly getting traded to Milwaukee in the interim.  That Wheeler failed to return to the Mets in 2016 served as a reminder that Tommy John recovery is not always seamless.  Wheeler’s 2017 season was abbreviated due to a stress fracture in his arm, and he actually began the 2018 season in the minors.  Wheeler, one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the game, just kept getting better in the 2018 season.  He finished with a 2.06 ERA in his final 15 starts.  An encore performance could make Wheeler a sleeper Cy Young candidate, but it’s all about stringing together a second consecutive healthy season for the first time in his career.  His ceiling would likely be a five-year deal taking him through age 34, the age through which Miles Mikolas, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Patrick Corbin were signed.  Both Wheeler and Chris Sale are represented by Jet Sports Management.

7.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, 32 in August, has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the last two seasons by measure of wRC+.  Though he’s able to play the outfield, he’s best-served as a designated hitter.  Martinez signed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox in late February last year, but the Boras client has the chance to opt out of the 2019 or 2020 seasons.  Given the way Martinez has been hitting, it stands to reason that even in this free agent climate, he will stand a good chance at topping the three years and $62.5MM he’ll have remaining on his contract after 2019.  Since he’d probably only be looking at a four-year deal this time around, it’s possible the Red Sox could simply tack on one more year to his current deal.

8.  Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius, 29, was signed by the Reds out of Curacao for $50K back in 2007.  A pair of three-team trades eventually led him to the Yankees’ shortstop job in 2015, with the near-impossible task of succeeding Derek Jeter.  Gregorius’ bat steadily improved over his four seasons with the Yankees.  Combined with strong defense, he’s totaled 8.7 WAR over the past two seasons – on par with Machado and Bogaerts.  However, Gregorius went down for Tommy John surgery in October.  He could return anywhere from June to August, complicating his free agency picture.  Both Gregorius and the Yankees seem open to an extension, and the club did just prevent Aaron Hicks from exploring free agency by giving him a seven-year, $70MM deal.  Like Goldschmidt, Gregorius is represented by Excel Sports Management.

9.  Justin Verlander.  Verlander, 36, finished second in the AL Cy Young voting last year, in a dominant season that was every bit as good as his Cy/MVP 2011 campaign for the Tigers.  He’s a likely Hall of Famer and is one of the game’s best starting pitchers currently.  When it comes to the topic of Verlander’s free agency, it’s difficult to ignore his age.  I have to think it caps him at a three-year deal, albeit with a premium AAV in the $30MM range.  The Astros have difficult decisions on the horizon regarding their pair of aces.  Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.

10.  Madison Bumgarner.  Like Verlander, Bumgarner was an ace for an extended period of time.  But with the Giants’ lefty, it remains to be seen what his second act will look like.  An April 2017 dirt bike accident caused injuries to Bumgarner’s ribs and shoulder, limiting him to 17 starts that year.  Then in March of last year, the pitcher’s left hand was fractured during a Spring Training game, delaying his season debut until June.  Upon his return, he wasn’t quite the Bumgarner of old, with his strikeout and walk rates going in the wrong direction.  Still, Bumgarner doesn’t turn 30 until August, and by then we should know whether his 2018 season was a blip on the radar or the start of a trend.  His contract, which will be negotiated by The Legacy Agency, will depend on that question.

Honorable mentions: Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig, Rick Porcello, Nick Castellanos, Josh Donaldson, Yasmani Grandal, Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett

Note: I’m currently operating under the assumption that club options for Corey Kluber, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Starling Marte, and Matt Carpenter will be exercised after the season, and that Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish will not opt out of their contracts.

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