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MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2019

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In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ’faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season.  Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that recently, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time.  I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is some subjectivity involved on the borderline teams.  I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2019 season with faith and hope: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Indians, Twins, Astros, Athletics, Angels, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Diamondbacks

Teams that enter 2019 without faith and hope: Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Marlins, Giants

Conclusion: 70% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2019.

Arguable teams:

  • The Blue Jays carry a 76 win projection and a 3.9% chance of reaching the playoffs.  If a team has a high-70s win projection, we look at its offseason to determine its interest in winning.  The Jays’ offseason was clearly that of a club that is not pushing to win in 2019.
  • It feels like the White Sox tried to pull out of their rebuild in the 2018-19 offseason, but their pursuit of Manny Machado and other big names fell short.  Looking at the veterans they did acquire, plus a 72 win projection and 1.1% chance of making the playoffs, and the Sox deserve to be lumped in with the Tigers and Royals in baseball’s least competitive division.
  • The Rangers’ preseason projections are about the same as the White Sox.  Texas spent a fair bit of money stocking their rotation with post-Tommy John pitchers, most notably Lance Lynn.  But so many things would have to go right for this team to sniff the playoffs that we have to classify them as a team without faith and hope this year.
  • The Mariners have already snagged a couple of wins in Tokyo, pushing their projection to 76 and playoff odds to 3.6%.  GM Jerry Dipoto authored a complicated offseason that involved shipping off Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and James Pazos.  In some cases, Dipoto acquired big leaguers in return, and he also signed Yusei Kikuchi, but it’s clear the Mariners are prepared to take a step back in 2019 even if they have not committed to a multiyear rebuild.
  • The Reds have a 79 win projection, but the relative parity of the NL Central means they have a 15.7% shot at the playoffs.  Plus, the Reds were clearly in go-for-it mode during the winter, bringing in Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Alex Wood to lead a retooled rotation.  They also added Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  An extension from the Reds will prevent Gray from reaching free agency after the winter, but all the other key acquisitions will be eligible.  Give the Reds credit: they’re trying.
  • The Pirates aren’t much better than a team like the Mariners, but the Bucs carry an 11.4% shot at the playoffs given their division.  The club had an extremely low-key offseason, missing an opportunity to more clearly position themselves as contenders.  The team did little to earn the designation of a team trying to win, but it’s still true that their fans have faith and hope entering the 2019 campaign.
  • The Diamondbacks are a lot like the Pirates: they have a 77 win projection and a 9.7% chance at the playoffs.  The team made bargain acquisitions and shipped off longtime star Paul Goldschmidt.  Still, the D’Backs focused on Major League players in return for Goldy, who was in the final year of his contract.  They are the most borderline of the borderline cases, but there’s enough chance of a long shot playoff run to put them in the “faith and hope” category.
  • I can’t say the same for the Giants, who finished second in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and own a 73 win projection and 3.5% chance at the playoffs.  Like many of the teams listed here, I wouldn’t call the Giants a rebuilding team at present.  However, their biggest offseason move was re-signing Derek Holland, their outfield may be the game’s worst, and it’s a club without a real chance of contending.  Contrast that with the Padres, who might only be 4-5 wins better than the Giants but added a superstar player in Manny Machado and will conceivably look to add this summer rather than subtract.

Orioles Select Contract Of Jesus Sucre; Place Cobb, Trumbo On IL

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The Orioles announced a series of transactions today. Catcher Jesus Sucre was selected to the 40-man roster, with outfielder/DH Mark Trumbo being transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear space.

Right-hander Alex Cobb and backstop Austin Wynns each hit the 10-day injured list. The former, who could be of interest to contenders if he throws well in the first half of the season, is dealing with a groin strain. The latter has a strained oblique.

Sucre will pair with just-claimed receiver Pedro Severino behind the dish. Both are known for their glovework but carry subpar bats. Sucre has yet to reach two hundred plate appearances in a given season; in parts of the past six campaigns, he has compiled 654 plate appearances of .223/.259/.308 hitting. The rebuilding O’s are obviously prioritizing defense from their catching unit, which makes for a nice opportunity for both of these players to gain more extensive exposure to major-league pitching.

It had seemed that Trumbo would be able to make an earlier return from the knee surgery he underwent last fall. He made it into six games of spring action, after all. But it seems he’s not going to be ready to go for some time. Like Cobb, he’s playing on a significant contract that the Baltimore organization would no doubt love to shed in some part. But it’s tougher to see a trade path for Trumbo, a bat-only player who hasn’t excelled offensively since re-signing with the O’s.

Rangers Release Zach McAllister

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The Rangers announced that they’ve given right-hander Zach McAllister his unconditional release. It’s a somewhat surprising development given that McAllister had signed a Major League contract with Texas in the offseason and enjoyed a solid Spring Training to date. In a dozen Cactus League innings, he’s allowed four runs on 12 hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts.

With McAllister now out of the fold, the locks for the Texas bullpen include Jose Leclerc, Jesse Chavez, Shawn Kelley, Chris Martin and Jeffrey Springs (the latter of whom was informed last week he’d made the team). Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez is also in line to make the roster following the sudden retirement of Jason Hammel. Out-of-options righty Connor Sadzeck, presumably, is a candidate to open the year in new skipper Chris Woodward’s bullpen as well, though offseason acquisition Kyle Bird is also still in camp.

McAllister, 31, struggled through an awful 2018 campaign with the Indians and Tigers, posting a combined 6.20 ERA in 45 innings of relief between the two clubs. He did turn in a quality 39-to-10 K/BB ratio in that time, though, and McAllister’s 95.3 mph average fastball velocity was as strong as ever. Prior to that ugly season, McAllister was a mainstay in the Cleveland bullpen from 2015-17, where he worked to a 2.99 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 through 183 1/3 innings of relief.

Blue Jays Sign Daniel Hudson

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March 25: The Blue Jays have now announced the signing. To make room on the 40-man roster, second baseman Devon Travis was placed on the 60-day injured list. Travis was already headed for the 10-day IL following surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee, but it’s now clear that he’ll miss at least the first two months of the season.

March 24, 4:57pm: Davidi adds in a subsequent tweet that Hudson will receive a $1.5MM base salary, with the ability to earn another $1.5MM in bonuses.

11:52am: The Blue Jays have agreed to a one-year, major league contract with reliever Daniel Hudson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Hudson is a client of Jet Sports Management.

It was a short stay in team-less limbo for Hudson, whom the Angels released from his minor league contract Friday. Hudson struggled during the spring as a member of the Halos, with whom he allowed five earned runs and three home runs over 6 2/3 innings. But that didn’t deter Toronto, whose bullpen has been in flux of late. The Blue Jays just said goodbye to John Axford and have been dealing with injuries to fellow relievers Ryan Tepera and Bud Norris.

Hudson, a hard-throwing, 32-year-old journeyman, spent last season with the Dodgers and posted a 4.11 ERA/4.38 FIP with 8.61 K/9, 3.52 BB/9 and a 37.2 percent groundball rate over 46 innings. It was the latest passable showing from Hudson, who owns a 4.58 ERA/4.02 FIP with 8.98 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 over 241 2/3 lifetime frames as a reliever.

Giants Designate Merandy Gonzalez For Assignment

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The Giants announced that they’ve designated right-hander Merandy Gonzalez for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to catcher Tom Murphy, whose previously reported waiver claim has now been formally announced by the team. San Francisco claimed Gonzalez off waivers from the Marlins back at the beginning of March.

Gonzalez, 23, made his MLB debut with the Marlins in 2018 having been previously acquired in the trade that sent AJ Ramos from Miami to the Mets. In his first 22 innings of MLB work, Gonzalez struggled to the tune of a 5.73 ERA as he allowed 31 hits with a 19-to-8 K/BB ratio. That debut came on the heels of a pedestrian season in Double-A, where he logged a 4.32 ERA over the life of 14 starts (73 innings) with unsightly averages of 5.8 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings pitched.

Gonzalez, who averaged 93.7 mph on his fastball in last season’s debut, made one scoreless appearance with a strikeout with the Giants before being optioned to Triple-A. The Giants will now have a week to trade him or try to pass him throughout outright waivers themselves, as the Marlins failed to do earlier in the month. If he does clear waivers this time around, he’d remain with the organization as a depth piece in the upper minors.

Phillies Re-Sign Andrew Romine To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have re-signed veteran utilityman Andrew Romine to a minor league pact, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. He’s in Major League camp today and will head to minor league camp tomorrow before opening the season in the minors (presumably with Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate in Lehigh Valley).

Philadelphia released Romine late last week, but this new arrangement allows them to keep him without paying him the $100K retention bonus he’d have been due as an Article XX(B) Free Agent (essentially — a player with six-plus years of MLB service who finished the previous season on a Major League roster but took a minor league pact in the offseason). That may sound harsh, though it’s a rather common practice in this type of instance.

Romine, 33, doesn’t bring much to the table offensively, but few in the league can match his defensive versatility. He’s played every position on the field at the MLB level and has at least 200 big league innings at each of first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield (left and right combined) and in center field. Romine appeared in 17 games with the Phils earlier this spring and hit .270/.325/.378 through 40 plate appearances. He’s a career .235/.291/.301 hitter in 1323 Major League plate appearances and has a .721 OPS in more than 3000 career trips to the plate in Triple-A.

Royals Select Lucas Duda, Release Brian Goodwin

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1:03pm: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Duda’s deal with the Royals carries a $1.25MM base salary and another $250K available via incentives.

12:44pm: The Royals announced Monday that they’ve selected the contract of veteran first baseman Lucas Duda and requested unconditional release waivers on outfielder Brian Goodwin. Duda will make the Kansas City Opening Day roster, while the out-of-options Goodwin, who’d previously been viewed as a strong candidate to log ample time in right field this coming season, will become a free agent if and when he clears release waivers in 48 hours.

Duda, 33, spent most of the spring with the division-rival Twins but opted out of his minor league pact with Minnesota last week when it became clear that he wouldn’t make the club as a bench bat. He’ll now open his second consecutive season with the Royals, who signed Duda to a one-year, $3.5MM contract in the 2017-18 offseason. Duda spent the first five months of last season with the Royals and hit .242/.310/.413 before being acquired by the Braves in exchange for cash on Aug. 29. Thus far in Spring Training, he’s posted a .250/.386/.417 slash through 44 PAs between Minnesota and Kansas City.

The Royals haven’t commented on what role Duda will play with the club, but the presence of a younger player with a similar skill set, Ryan O’Hearn, makes it seem likely that Duda will start the season as either a bench bat, joining Cam Gallagher, Terrance Gore and Chris Owings, or as a part-time designated hitter.

Spring Training was a disaster for the 28-year-old Goodwin, whom the Royals acquired in a trade with the Nationals last July. Goodwin appeared in 17 games for the Royals and took 49 plate appearances but slashed .166/.188/.256 with 13 strikeouts against four walks. His .266/.317/.415 output in 101 plate appearances with Kansas City last season gave the Royals a bit of cause for intrigue, but they’ll now entrust right field to a combination of Soler, Owings and Gore early in the season. It’s possible that they’ll try to bring Goodwin back on a minor league contract, though he’ll also have the opportunity to field interest from other clubs once his waiver period expires.

Giants Claim Tom Murphy From Rockies

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The Giants have claimed catcher Tom Murphy off waivers from the Rockies, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (via Twitter). Colorado reportedly placed the 27-year-old Murphy, who is out of minor league options, on waivers over the weekend.

The move to acquire Murphy comes just one day after San Francisco acquired another out-of-options catcher, Erik Kratz, in a trade with the Brewers. That now gives the organization three catchers to carry on the 25-man roster to start the season, as Murphy and Kratz will join Buster Posey on the Opening Day roster. As Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area recently wrote, skipper Bruce Bochy did acknowledge that the organization had considered carrying three catchers to begin the year, although at the time, the thinking was that said statement applied to young catcher Aramis Garcia. With Murphy now in the organization, Garcia seems ticketed for Triple-A to open the season.

In placing Murphy on waivers, the Rockies seemingly prioritized catcher defense over Murphy, who arguably has greater offensive potential than in-house options Tony Wolters and Chris Iannetta. (The decision was surely also influenced in part by the $4.8MM still owed to Iannetta.) Murphy showed some of that promise early in his limited MLB experience, hitting .266/.341/.608 through his first 88 MLB plate appearances in 2015-16. Since that time, he’s logged an additional 122 PAs and mustered only a .188/.221/.325 batting line, although that paltry sample of data doesn’t reveal much.

Murphy, a former Top 100 prospect in the eyes of Baseball America, maintained a potent bat in Triple-A last season when he posted a .901 OPS in 264 PAs that is a near-mirror image of his composite .902 OPS from parts of four seasons at the top minor league level. Murphy has been about average at catching base thieves throughout his Major League and minor league tenure, and Baseball Prospectus has valued his pitch-framing and pitch-blocking skills similarly.

Blue Jays Re-Sign John Axford To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays announced that they’ve re-signed right-hander John Axford to a minor league contract. He had been in camp with the Jays for much of Spring Training but was cut loose from that deal when he was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right elbow. Because he’ll be sidelined for at least a month, Axford and the Jays re-worked the terms of the minor league contract. In doing so, Toronto also avoided paying Axford a $100K retention bonus that would’ve been otherwise required to keep him in the minors while he rehabbed.

It still remains quite possible, if not likely, that the Canadian-born Axford will reemerge as a bullpen option for the Blue Jays at some point once he’s had sufficient time to mend his ailing elbow. Prior to the injury, he was viewed as a strong candidate to break camp with the Jays for what would be the second straight season. Last year, Axford appeared in 45 games for the Blue Jays last season, pitching to a 4.41 ERA with a 50-to-20 K/BB ratio in 51 innings before being traded to the Dodgers prior to the July 31 non-waiver deadline.

Axford’s time with the Dodgers proved forgettable. He was tagged for six runs in his first appearance with the L.A. organization, and while his next four outings were sharp (one run in three innings with four strikeouts and no walks), he didn’t have time for his numbers with the Dodgers to recover before being struck in the leg by a comeback liner that left him with a fractured fibula and sidelined him for more than a month.

The injury to Axford is hardly the only health issue that cropped up in the Blue Jays’ bullpen mix late in Spring Training. Bud Norris was slowed late in camp when he had trouble getting loose prior to one of his outings, while Ryan Tepera will begin the season on the injured list due to inflammation in his right elbow. There’s no clear timeline at present for when Axford will be ready to get back on the mound,  and he’ll certainly need a Triple-A tuneup before the organization considers selecting his contract to the Major League roster.

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