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Extension Rumors: Cole, Verlander, Red Sox, Castellanos

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The Astros are currently discussing extensions with starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required), though a deal with either seems unlikely. Rosenthal notes that the Astros may not be keen on paying market price for a multi-year extension with Verlander when that deal would begin in his age-37 season. Cole, meanwhile, is a Scott Boras client and thus likelier to test the free-agent market. Boras’ most recent extension for a starting pitcher was Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, who (like Cole) was in his walk year when he signed a $175MM guarantee on a seven-year deal beginning in his age-28 season. Cole is in his age-28 season right now, so he’d be a year older than Strasburg at the time of a theoretical extension, but he’s also been more durable, reaching 200 innings in three of the past four seasons. Rosenthal makes a slightly less-aggressive comp than that, pointing out that Cole will reach free agency at the same age as Patrick Corbin and with better career stats. Corbin agreed to a six-year deal worth $140MM with the Nats this winter.

Since it’s officially “Extension Season” — as MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, there have been a virtually unprecedented 16 extension agreements during Spring Training — here’s more extension chatter from around the game…

  • Rob Bradford of WEEI spoke to J.D. Martinez about the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox at the end of the season. Martinez, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his current deal, said there haven’t been any discussions about an extension or a restructuring of the contract to this point. Unlike last summer, however, he at least left open a slight window for in-season talks in his most recent interview with Bradford. Martinez has an opt-out after the third year of his contract as well, at which point there’d be two years and $38.75MM remaining on the deal.
  • Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi was drafted five spot behind Alex Bregman and reached the Majors barely a week after the Astros’ third baseman, but Benintendi tells Bradford that his those similarities didn’t make him take particular note of Bregman’s $100MM extension. Rather, the 24-year-old Benintendi says it’s “fun to watch all these guys sign some deals” in a nod to the bevy of extensions throughout MLB. Benintendi and his reps have not discussed an extension with the Sox this winter, though he tells Bradford that he would “definitely” listen if the Sox initiated talks.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Heyman spoke to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski about the team’s current slate of extension candidates (all links to Twitter). While it’s common for players to place Opening Day deadlines on extension talks, Dombrowski somewhat unusually took a similar stance. “We’re focused on winning this year,” he said. “…Unless something unexpected happens, we’re not going to do anything once the season starts.” Heyman notes that Xander Bogaerts, specifically, has stated an aversion to in-season negotiating. Regarding Martinez, Dombrowski merely stated that the Sox are “hopeful” he won’t opt out of his contract.
  • The Tigers “haven’t engaged in any kind of [extension] conversations” with Nicholas Castellanos this spring, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck yesterday. There’s been no formal offer or even any formal discussions on the matter with Castellanos’ agent, according to Avila, though he said the possibility of a deal is “obviously… in our minds.” Castellanos has expressed a desire to remain in Detroit on a long-term deal, though the rebuilding Tigers will undoubtedly view him as a possible trade asset this summer as well. If the two sides can eventually find a common ground in terms of price, however, Avila said he wouldn’t rule out an in-season extension. “He hasn’t said anything to the contrary,” Avila said of Castellanos being willing to negotiate beyond Opening Day. “I think he would be open to it.”

Brewers Move Chase Anderson To Bullpen, Set Rotation

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The Brewers have settled on their Opening Day rotation, and they’ll be placing a good bit of faith in a young core of arms with limited big league experience, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. Veteran Jhoulys Chacin was named the Opening Day starter earlier in camp, and it’s now been confirmed by the team that he’ll be joined by right-handers Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Zach Davies. While the 26-year-old Davies has been a presence in the Milwaukee rotation for the past couple of seasons, this will mark the first time that Burnes, Woodruff and to a lesser extent Peralta are penciled in as long-term starters. (Peralta did start 14 games for the Brewers last year but finished the season with a pair of relief outings.)

The decision to sandwich that trio of young arms between Chacin and Davies means that 2018 Opening Day starter Chase Anderson will begin the year in a bullpen role. So, too, will right-hander Junior Guerra, who has started 60 games for the Brewers over the course of the past three seasons.

The decision on Anderson is of particular note given that he signed a two-year, $11.75MM contract in October 2017. He’ll earn $6.5MM this year under the terms of that pact, but the Brewers have a pair of club options on him valued at $8.5MM and $9.5MM, respectively. The shift to the bullpen seemingly makes it less likely that he’d be valued at that price point, though Anderson would remain under club control as an arbitration-eligible player even if next year’s option is bought out, as he won’t have six full seasons of MLB service time.

The Brewers drew some criticism for not doing enough to address their rotation last winter in an offseason that saw them sign both Chacin and Wade Miley (who signed as a free agent with the Astros earlier in the current offseason). This winter, they didn’t make a single big league addition to their rotation, knowing full well that the trio of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta were now ready for big league roles.

It’s unconventional for a team with World Series aspirations to effectively begin the year auditioning three young starters, as promising as they may be, for long-term rotation roles. But, it’s also not difficult to see why the trio has earned the faith of the front office. Both Burnes and Woodruff have previously carried top 100 prospect billing and found some success in Triple-A despite playing their games there in an awful pitching environment (Colorado Springs). Both pitched well in relief roles at the MLB level last season, with Burnes in particular creating intrigue based on his spin rates (99th percentile in fastball, 89th in curveball) and velocity. Peralta, too, fared well in the hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in addition to turning in a 4.25 ERA (3.72 FIP) in his first 78 1/3 MLB frames.

It should also be noted that this iteration of the rotation is hardly permanent. Top starter Jimmy Nelson is on the mend from 2017 shoulder surgery and is nearing a return to the active roster. It’s also possible that either Anderson or Guerra could work his way back into the fold in the event of an injury or some shaky performance from one of the team’s younger arms. Righties Adrian Houser and Aaron Wilkerson are also on hand as 40-man options in Triple-A. And, as ever, the summer trade market will bear numerous options whom the Brewers could consider should the rotation prove to be an area of definitive need.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Injuries And Roster Plans

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There are suddenly quite a few moving parts when it comes to the Blue Jays’ roster situation. As Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports, ongoing developments continue to create uncertainty even as camp draws to a close.

Blue Jays skipper Charlie Montoyo revealed today that neither Ryan Tepera nor John Axford will be an option to start the season (Twitter link via Davidi). Teperea will open on the injured list due to inflammation in his right elbow. Axford, meanwhile, is not yet on the 40-man roster and likely won’t be for quite some time, as he’s been diagnosed with a stress reaction in the olecranon bone of his right elbow.

The Jays haven’t provided a timeline for either to return to health, though the loss of Tepera is particularly tough for Toronto. The 31-year-old righty has been a stable presence in the Jays’ bullpen since late in the 2016 season and has a 3.53 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 160 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. He’d been expected to serve as a setup man this season.

Those injuries would have opened the door wide for veteran Bud Norris, who surprisingly was forced to settle for a minor league deal with the Jays midway through camp. Unfortunately, as Davidi reports, Norris was a late scratch from his scheduled outing.

There’s no indication at this point that he’s dealing with anything more than a typical spring blip, but that doesn’t mean it’s not deflating to see another issue arise at this stage of camp. As Davidi puts it: “given the other injuries and the fact that Norris had an opt-out that expired at midnight Thursday, there was certainly a New Orleans Is Sinking kind of feel to the day.”

Of all the recent developments in Dunedin, the strangest was the latest concussion scare for outfielder Dalton Pompey. As Davidi explains, Pompey was somehow struck in the head by one or more bats that had been store in his locker. Given his worrying history of head injuries, Pompey was scratched and scheduled for further evaluation.

It’s anyone’s guess at this point how his roster situation will be resolved, with this health issue potentially representing a wild card. Pompey has profiled as a trade or DFA candidate, but could perhaps get one more re-start in the organization if he requires a stretch on the injured list.

These late-breaking developments have had quite an impact on the Blue Jays’ final roster plans. As Davidi explains, the club now may have some gaps to fill, particularly if it decides to give up on Rule 5 pick Elvis Luciano. That may also bring some opportunity, though, as the Jays could have some unexpected roster flexibility to work with as players shake loose from other organizations in advance of Opening Day.

Brad Miller Opts Out Of Contract With Dodgers

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Infielder/outfielder Brad Miller has opted out of his minor-league deal with the Dodgers, per a club announcement. He’s heading back onto the open market.

Miller, 29, had joined the organization in hopes of being the latest infielder to resurrect his career in Los Angeles. While he showed well in spring action, he obviously wasn’t ticketed for a roster spot and decided to test his luck in free agency.

At times in the not-so-distant past, Miller has shown big power (30 home runs in 2016) and big patience (15.5% walk rate in 2017). Unfortunately, those two characteristics have yet to show up fully in the same season. In 254 plate appearances last year, Miller slashed .248/.311/.413 — a near match for his career-average line of .239/.313/.409, which itself equates to league-average productivity at the plate.

Teams that like what they saw out of Miller this spring, when he knocked eight base hits (two of them home runs) in 25 plate appearances, will have plenty of ways to make him fit on a major-league roster. Miller has plenty of experience in the middle infield and has spent some time at both corner infield and all three outfield spots. He hasn’t been trusted much recently at shortstop and hasn’t graded as a plus defender at any position, but still rates as a rather versatile player.

Giants Acquire Connor Joe, Designate Drew Ferguson

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The Giants have acquired utilityman Connor Joe from the Reds, per a club announcement. Righty Jordan Johnson and cash considerations are headed to Cincinnati in return. To open a 40-man roster spot, the Giants designated outfielder Drew Ferguson for assignment.

Both Joe and Ferguson were selected in last December’s Rule 5 draft. The former went to the Reds from the Dodgers, while the latter came from the Astros organization. Ferguson would be offered back to Houston if he clears waivers, but every other team in baseball will have a chance to step into his Rule 5 rights.

With a deal coming together at this late stage of camp, it seems likely that Joe has the inside track on a job in San Francisco — perhaps bumping out veteran Pablo Sandoval. New president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is amply familiar with the former Dodger farmhand, having just come over from the L.A. organization. If Joe can make and stay on the MLB roster all year, his rights would move permanently.

Joe, 26, is a former first-round pick who had largely struggled until a breakout 2018 season. In 435 plate appearances in the upper minors, he turned in a robust .299/.408/.527 slash with a career-high 17 home runs and sixty walks to go with 88 strikeouts.

Ferguson is also 26 years of age. The former 19th-rounder put himself on the map with some strong offensive showings, including a .305/.436/.429 run in 292 Triple-A plate appearances last year. But he has struggled since in short stints in the Arizona Fall League, Puerto Rican Winter League, and Cactus League.

On the Cincinnati end of this swap, Johnson will give the organization another upper-minors arm to work with. He earned a call-up to the highest level of the minors after 15 solid starts at Double-A last year, but struggled thereafter. In 58 frames over 11 outings at Triple-A, Johnson managed only a 4.66 ERA with 37 strikeouts against 33 walks.

Phillies Release Drew Butera, Andrew Romine

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The Phillies have released catcher Drew Butera and infielder Andrew Romine, per a club announcement. Both had been in camp on minor-league deals with March 21st opt-out provisions, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia notes on Twitter.

Clearly, the Philadelphia organization had determined that neither player would make its active roster. The 35-year-old Butera, a light-hitting career reserve, had quite a strong offensive showing in camp but did not do enough to top youngster Andrew Knapp for backup duties. Romine, 33, didn’t hit much this spring. He rarely has done much with the bat in the big leagues, but has been trusted to appear at every position on the field.

Alex Wilson Opts Out Of Contract With Indians

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Righty reliever Alex Wilson has opted out of his contract with the Indians, per a club announcement. He will head back onto the open market in search of a better opportunity elsewhere.

Wilson, 32, had been competing for a spot in the Cleveland bullpen. Had he earned a nod, his minor-league deal would have provided a $1.25MM salary and $750K in potential incentives.

Though he has maintained a 3.23 ERA over 320 2/3 MLB innings over his career, including 61 2/3 frames of 3.36 ERA ball last year, Wilson was non-tendered this fall by the Tigers. He has never had the peripherals to support the results, but Wilson has certainly defied them for quite a long stretch. He turned in 8 2/3 innings of action this spring, allowing just two runs on five hits while compiling seven strikeouts against two walks.

Red Sox “Actively” Discussing Sandy Leon Trades

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The Red Sox are currently in “active” trade talks with other clubs regarding a potential Sandy Leon swap, Buster Olney and Marly Rivera of ESPN report (via Twitter).

As has long been anticipated, something will have to give with regard to Boston’s catching situation between now and Opening Day. The Sox are carrying three catchers at the moment in Leon, Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.

While the Boston organization managed to hang onto those three players for the entirety of the 2018 season, doing so more or less meant punting a roster spot. Swihart was so seldom used early on that he tallied all of 48 plate appearances through the season’s first two months.

A repeat of that approach has never seemed desirable. The precise resolution, though, remains unclear. Vazquez is projected to be the starter in Boston, and both Leon and Swihart are out of minor league options, making a trade or even just a straight release of Leon both plausible outcomes.

Leon, 30, struggled through an awful season at the plate in 2018, hitting just .177/.232/.279 through 288 PAs. His bat has continually declined since what now looks like a clear outlier campaign in 2016, but he’s regarded as a terrific defender in terms of limiting the running game, framing pitches, and managing a staff.

Leon agreed to a $2.475MM salary to avoid arbitration this winter. That may represent a palatable sum for a trade partner seeking a defensive-minded backup catcher, though it’s just barely shy of the deal Martin Maldonado signed  few weeks back. Maldonado is also highly regarded behind the dish and is also a more accomplished (albeit still well-below-average) hitter.

Arbitration salaries aren’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day, though, so if the Sox were to move on, they’d only be on the hook for 45 days’ termination pay — a total of about $599K. To be clear, there’s no indication that the Sox have given serious thought to cutting Leon loose, but if they’re indeed planning on carrying just two catchers this winter (Vazquez and Swihart), that possibility would need to be considered if the trade route doesn’t bear fruit.

Rays To Extend Blake Snell

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2:00pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports the yearly breakdown (Twitter link). Snell will be paid a $3MM signing bonus and earn $1MM in 2019. He’ll then be paid salaries of $7MM, $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM in the subsequent four seasons. That $16MM salary in 2023 can increase by up to $2MM based on his placement in the Cy Young race.

1:50pm: The Rays have formally announced the contract as well as the terms of the deal. Snell can earn an additional $2MM  via incentives, per the team.

1:43pm: The Rays have reached an agreement on a five-year, $50MM contract with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports (on Twitter). There are no options included on the contract, which will buy out all of Snell’s arbitration seasons and what would have been his first free-agent year. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Snell’s deal does not include a no-trade clause. Snell is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

Blake Snell | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Snell, 26, will receive the largest contract ever guaranteed to a pitcher with between two and three years of service time, breaking the previous record held by Gio Gonzalez, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. (Miles Mikolas could technically be considered in that category, though as a player who had established himself overseas and would’ve otherwise been eligible for free agency, his extension was under wholly different circumstances.) Despite the fact that he has less service time and was not yet eligible for arbitration, Snell rode that Cy Young Award to a guarantee that tops the sums promised to both Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) and Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) earlier this offseason.

Because Snell was still a year from arbitration, he was still a year from cashing in on his first seven-figure payday. Even if one were to aggressively forecast what he’d make in arbitration by suggesting he’d top Dallas Keuchel’s record $7.25MM first-time arbitration salary for a pitcher, Snell likely would’ve topped out around $35-40MM between now and the end of his arbitration eligibility. He’s possibly trading as much as $20MM in that would-be first year of free agency in exchange for the up-front payday, but that’s in a best-case scenario for his performance. A more realistic forecast of his future would need to account for the downside of injury and regression/decline.

The contract for Snell comes just weeks after the left-hander took umbrage with the organization’s decision to renew his 2019 contract for $573,700 — a raise of just $15K over the preceding season (at a time when the league-minimum salary increased by $5K).

“The Rays have the right under the collective bargaining agreement to renew me at or near the league-minimum salary,” Snell told Topkin at the time. “They also have the ability to to more adequately compensate me, as other organizations have done with players who have similar achievements to mine. The Rays chose the former.” At this point, one would imagine that renewal amounts to little more than water under the bridge with a new record-setting extension locked into place.

Snell, the No. 52 overall pick by the Rays back in 2011 and a longtime top prospect, solidified himself as an MLB-caliber starter in 2017 season with 24 starts of 4.04 ERA ball. However, he thrust himself into the ranks of the game’s elite pitchers in 2018 when he overpowered opponents with a 1.89 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 31 starts. Snell’s 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate was the fourth-best mark among all qualified MLB starters, trailing only Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Carlos Carrasco while tying him with NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. His 33.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone ranked 18th among MLB starters.

It’s the second extension of the week for the Rays, who also locked up promising young infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe on a six-year, $24MM pact. Looking ahead, Snell joins Lowe and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier as the only players on the Rays’ roster to have a guaranteed contract beyond the 2020 season. Kiermaier’s deal will come off the books after the 2022 season, while Snell is controlled through 2023 and Lowe through 2024 (plus a pair of club options). That trio won’t combine for more than $34.2MM in any single season in which their contracts overlap, leaving even the cost-conscious Rays with a bit of flexibility.

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