Miles Mikolas Has Fallen Off
The Cardinals signed free-agent right-hander Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee in what became one of the wisest moves of the 2017-18 offseason. Although hardly a bank-breaking commitment, it was somewhat of a gamble for St. Louis. After all, Mikolas was an unspectacular major leaguer with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 who then spent three years pitching in Japan. Mikolas was dominant overseas, though, and he carried that excellence into 2018 in St. Louis.
During his first year with the Cardinals, Mikolas pitched to an outstanding 2.83 ERA/3.28 FIP in 200 2/3 innings. While Mikolas only struck out 6.55 batters per nine, he walked a mere 1.3 and induced ground balls at a 49.3 percent clip. Mikolas’ stinginess in the walk and fly ball departments helped lead to a 4.3 fWAR, which ranked 12th among major league starters.
Sold on Mikolas’ output last season, the Cardinals signed him to an extension worth a guaranteed $68MM for four years back in February. That deal will keep Mikolas under wraps through 2023, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, it’s not looking like a great move so far. Facing the lowly Marlins on Wednesday, Mikolas allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings, thereby raising his ERA to 4.83 in 78 1/3 frames this season. His 4.74 FIP isn’t much better.
Mikolas’ 2019 woes haven’t come because of significant declines in the strikeout, walk, groundball or BABIP categories. Those numbers look almost the same compared to last season, though there has been a noticeable drop in his strike rate. Nobody posted a higher strike percentage than Mikolas’ 69.3 a year ago, but the figure has fallen to 65.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, Mikolas’ strand rate has decreased by a large margin (from 76.2 percent to 70.9), and he has been far more prone to surrendering long balls.
After yielding home runs on a meager 9.2 percent of fly balls in 2018, Mikolas is all the way up to 19.7 this season. It hasn’t helped that Mikolas’ infield fly rate has plummeted from 9.8 percent to 4.2. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed by greater than 5 percent, according to FanGraphs, while Statcast indicates his average exit velocity against has hopped from 85.4 mph to 88.2. Consequently, Mikolas’ weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has shot from .271/.286 to .339/.347.
So why the newfound contact management issues? For one, Mikolas isn’t fooling as many hitters this year, as they’ve chased 5 percent fewer pitches than they did last season. And left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Mikolas, who held them to a .309 wOBA last season but has seen the number jump to .396 this year. As seen in these FanGraphs heatmaps (2018, ‘19), he’s not staying away against lefties as well he did last season.
Worsening matters, Mikolas’ once-elite slider has been ineffective, and he has leaned on it less as a result. While Mikolas’ slider was one of the most valuable pitches of its kind a year ago, per FanGraphs, it has taken colossal steps backward this season. Batters posted a measly .201/.231 wOBA/xwOBA versus the offering in his first year in St. Louis, but they’re up to .395/.329 in the current campaign. If we’re to take that 66-point gap in face value, there has been some poor fortune involved. However, it simply hasn’t been close to as lethal as it was in 2018, perhaps owing to a 1 mph drop in velocity and somewhat of a change in typical location (heatmaps via FanGraphs: ’18, ’19).
Contrary to last season, when Mikolas’ slider helped him perform like one of the majors’ top starters, troubling signs abound for the 2019 version of the righty. His struggles are a key reason why the Cardinals have gotten off to a mediocre start and are on track to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That’s not what the Redbirds had in mind when they bought high on Mikolas over the winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
International Transactions: 6/13/19
Here’s the latest on some international transactions news from around baseball…
- The Blue Jays signed Cuban right-hander Yosver Zulueta and Dutch right-handers Jiorgeny Casimiri and Sem Robberse in some late additions before the end of the 2018-19 international signing period, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. Toronto acquired an extra $1.5MM of bonus pool funds in spring trades of Kendrys Morales to the A’s and Dwight Smith Jr. to the Orioles, which accounted for these three Jays signing (Zulueta received “the majority of their spending room,” as per Davidi).
- The Orioles signed Dominican center fielder Stiven Acevedo to a contract with a $275K bonus in April, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes. Acevedo’s birthday (August 2, 2002) made him a bit of an odd man out for the first batch of signings last July 2, as other teams committed most of their pools to players who were already 16 years old. This left him available for Baltimore, who felt like Acevedo would have received a bonus of $1MM+ had he waited for the next international signing period this coming July 2. Acevedo is already 6’4″ and 185 pounds despite his young age, “with feel for the barrel, not much swing-and-miss and the chance to grow into some power,” according to Meoli. The piece is well worth a read for a full overview of the Orioles’ 2018-19 international signing endeavors, as the team has finally started to focus on the int’l market under new GM Mike Elias (and in the final weeks of former front office boss Dan Duquette’s tenure) and the O’s now seem positioned to be major players in the 2019-20 signing period. In total, the O’s spent $2.167MM since last July 2, despite a signing pool that both rose and shrunk rapidly after multiple trades and pursuits of such high-profile prospects as the Mesa brothers.
- Austin Bibens-Dirkx is no longer a member of the Uni-President Lions of the Chinese Professional Baseball League, the team announced (hat tip to Rob of CPBLStats.com) Bibens-Dirkx wished to return to the United States to be with his wife as the couple expects a baby within the coming days. Bibens-Dirkx posted a 5.27 ERA over 114 1/3 innings for the Rangers in 2017-18 before signing with the Uni-Lions in the offseason. His time in the CPBL carries its share of struggles, as Bibens-Dirkx posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP 46 innings.
Who Will Win The NL Central?
The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.
Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players. Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.
The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).
As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson‘s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright‘s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.
Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?
(Poll link for app users)
Who will win the NL Central?
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Brewers 44% (5,171)
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Cubs 32% (3,832)
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Cardinals 11% (1,253)
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Reds 10% (1,130)
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Pirates 4% (500)
Total votes: 11,886
Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Donaldson
Third baseman Josh Donaldson was one of the majors’ elite players from 2013-17, a five-year, 3,270-plate appearance span with the Athletics and Blue Jays in which he ranked second only to Mike Trout in fWAR (34.4). Donaldson slashed .282/.377/.524 along the way and placed fifth in wRC+ (148) and sixth in home runs (164). In 2015, his best season during that stretch, Donaldson smashed 41 homers en route to American League MVP honors. Four years later, though, it’s highly questionable whether Donaldson will ever approach the MVP conversation again.
After an injury-limited 2018 season with the Jays and Indians, with whom he combined for a solid but unspectacular .246/.352/.449 line (117 wRC+) in 52 games and 219 trips to the plate, Donaldson headed to the NL via free agency this past winter. While he only inked a one-year contract with the Braves, they gave him $23MM in hopes he’d rekindle his glory years. However, two-plus months into the season, his production hasn’t matched his expensive salary.
The 33-year-old Donaldson turned in a 1-for-4 performance in a win over the Pirates on Thursday, contributing to a .236/.349/.419 line in 269 PA this season. While Donaldson has been a durable option for the Braves so far, his wRC+ only rates 5 percent above league average – his worst mark since his rookie year with the A’s in 2012. Having hit nine home runs, Donaldson’s on pace for 21, which would be his fewest in a full season. And Donaldson’s current ISO (.187) would also go down as his worst over a full campaign.
One of the problems, it seems, is that Donaldson’s not hitting enough fly balls. Donaldson’s pulling the ball more than ever, but that’s not particularly beneficial if he’s not elevating it. Although Donaldson was one of the game’s most notable spokesmen of its fly ball revolution during his heyday, his FB rate in 2019 (34 percent) is 8-plus percent lower than where it was in 2017 and checks in nearly 2 percent below league average. It’s unfortunate, too, because Donaldson’s 97.7 mph exit velocity on flies and line drives ranks 10th in the majors this year, according to Statcast. Donaldson’s 93 mph exit velo on all batted balls sits an even better ninth, though there’s not a ton of value in hitting hard grounders – especially when you possess below-average speed.
Beyond Donaldson’s batted-ball profile, his increasing strikeout rate presents more bad news. Donaldson has gone down on strikes 28.3 percent of the time this season, up from 18.4 percent during his half-decade stretch of greatness. To his credit, Donaldson’s somewhat offsetting that with a high walk rate (13.8 percent). However, he’s chasing more pitches than ever outside the strike zone, swinging and missing more than he has since his 34-PA debut in 2010, and making far less contact than he did in his star-level years.
Left-handed pitchers, whom the righty-swinging Donaldson has pulverized throughout his career, have been especially tough on him this year. He has slashed a horrid .167/.335/.229 against southpaws, who have stifled his power (ISO heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2010-18; 2019), in part because he’s no longer offering much resistance against offspeed pitches.
Adding everything up, Donaldson’s weighted on-base average and expected wOBA (.340/.354) indicate he’s still a quality producer at the plate. Beyond that, with three Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner this season, Donaldson’s still capable of handling his position. But Donaldson’s not the All-Star performer he was in Oakland and Toronto, and he hasn’t done a lot in Atlanta to help his stock as he gears up for a second straight trip to free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Francisco Rodriguez Signs With Mexican League Team
Right-hander Francisco Rodriguez has signed with Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League, according to The Athletic’s Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). The man they call K-Rod hasn’t pitched in the Major Leagues since 2017, though he tossed 42 1/3 innings for the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks in 2018.
The veteran reliever is still hopeful of returning to the big leagues, and it was only back in 2016 that Rodriguez recorded 44 saves for the Tigers while posting an impressive 3.24 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.48 K/BB over 58 1/3 innings. That strong year gave way to a rough 2017, however, that saw him post a 7.82 ERA for the Tigers before being released, and then failing to earn another ticket to the Show after signing minor league contracts with the Nationals and Phillies that same year.
Rodriguez is now 37, and looking for one final encore in what has been an outstanding career. After making an immediate impact as a rookie to help the Angels win the 2002 World Series, K-Rod has been an effective late-game weapon for five different teams over 16 MLB seasons. His 62 saves in 2008 is still the league’s all-time single-season record, and Rodriguez’s 437 saves places him fourth on the all-time list, behind only Hall-of-Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith.
Rangers Release Nick Gardewine
The Rangers have requested unconditional release waivers on right-hander Nick Gardewine, according to multiple reports (including this tweet from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Gardewine had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
A seventh-round pick for Texas in the 2013 draft, Gardewine posted a 3.71 ERA, 3.12 K/BB rate, and 8.8 K/9 over 323 minor league innings, pitching exclusively as a reliever since the start of the 2016 season. He received a couple of looks at the big league level in the form of 15 total games for the Rangers in 2017-18, though he missed much of 2018 recovering from a forearm injury. Gardewine was on the minor league injured list at the time of his DFA, which helps to explain his release; injured players cannot be put through outright waivers. It’s common in these situations for players to re-sign with the organization on a minor league deal, though Gardewine of course has the option to pursue a new opportunity if he chooses.
Mark Trumbo Has Setback In Rehab Process
Mark Trumbo has been shut down for the next seven-to-ten days after receiving a PRP injection in his right knee, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). Trumbo has yet to play this season after undergoing knee surgery last September, and between his 60-day injury list placement and maximum injury rehab period, Trumbo was on pace to return to the roster this weekend.
Instead, however, the veteran slugger will continue to rest his knee, and “there’s not a real timetable” on when Trumbo could make his 2019 debut, according to Hyde. “It was progressing well and is progressing well. He just felt some soreness yesterday, but he was running better and he was playing in the field and swinging the bat pretty well. Just felt some soreness yesterday, so we got him an injection and he’s going to be out a little while longer,” the manager said.
After a rough 2017 season, Trumbo provided above-average (107 wRC+, 108 OPS+) production in hitting .261/.313/.452 with 17 homers over 358 plate appearances for the Orioles in 2018. A quicker return from knee surgery and a repeat of that performance could have created a slim chance that the Orioles would’ve been able to move Trumbo at the trade deadline and get a little of his $13.5MM salary for 2019 off the books. Now, however, it doesn’t seem too likely that Trumbo will be back in Baltimore’s lineup before July, giving him little time to audition both his bat and his health for any interested teams.
When Trumbo is able to play, it’s also unclear as to how much time he’ll see in the lineup. The Orioles already have Chris Davis obligated to receive some first base/DH at-bats, and the rebuilding team would obviously prefer to give Trey Mancini, Dwight Smith Jr., and Renato Nunez continued playing time in the corner outfield and DH spots, respectively. With Trumbo set for free agency this winter, he isn’t a part of the Orioles’ long-term plans.
Astros Notes: Bullpen, James, White, Draft
The latest out of Houston…
- It has widely been expected that the Astros will target rotation help at the deadline, though Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if the club could also look at acquiring a reliever. There isn’t much wrong on paper with the Astros’ relief corps, as they rank first in the league in bullpen WHIP, second in hits/9, and third in bullpen ERA, though there is some uncertainty at the back end. Josh James has been inconsistent this season, while Rome notes that Hector Rendon didn’t pitch well down the stretch in 2018. There also isn’t much left-handed depth beyond Cionel Perez and reverse-splits specialist Will Harris.
- Speaking of James, he left last night’s game for what he described as “a precautionary move” due to lat tightness, Rome tweets, and James didn’t consider the issue to be serious. The 26-year-old has a stunning 14.4 K/9 this season, usually operating as a multi-inning weapon out of Houston’s pen, though James has had troubles with the long ball (1.7 HR/9) and his control (5.9 BB/9). As a result, James only has a 4.71 ERA to show for all his missed bats.
- The Astros are close to getting a lot of notable stars back from the injured list, which Rome feels could lead to something of a roster crunch. Tyler White could be the odd man out, as he hasn’t hit this season and offers little defensive value apart from his current status as the Astros’ only backup first baseman. These issues also make the out-of-options White difficult to trade, though given his strong minor league numbers and the .888 OPS he posted for the Astros over 237 PA just last season, one would think another team would make a claim if White was indeed designated for assignment. Tony Kemp is another player whose role could be diminished once Houston’s regulars are healthy, though Kemp’s on-base ability and defensive versatility seemingly give him the leg up on White if a choice had to be made.
- In a separate piece from Rome, he writes about the Astros’ attempts to free up enough room within their $5,355,100 draft bonus pool to sign fourth-round pick Colin Barber. The 136th overall pick has a $410.1K slot price, though Barber reportedly wants more to break his commitment to the University of Oregon. Barber’s asking price isn’t known, though Houston has already carved out approximately $645K in pool space thanks to a few below-slot signings, much of which ($507.3K) came from first-rounder Korey Lee‘s contract. Of course, not all of that extra money is earmarked for Barber, given that the Astros have also gone above-slot to sign a couple of their other picks.
Cubs Place Carl Edwards Jr. On 10-Day Injured List
The Cubs have sent right-hander Carl Edwards Jr. to the 10-day IL due to a left thoracic strain, according to several reports. Edwards’ 25-man roster spot will be filled by southpaw Tim Collins, who is being called up from Triple-A. The placement is retroactive to June 10, with ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers noting that Edwards hasn’t pitched since reporting the discomfort on that date.
After an ugly start to the season that led to a minor league demotion for almost a month, Edwards has pitched much better since returning to Chicago’s bullpen. Edwards has a 2.03 ERA over 13 1/3 innings since rejoining the big league roster, with opponents hitting a measly .094 against him. Without getting too carried away by a small sample size, Edwards’ three walks over 13 1/3 frames is also a positive sign, given the career 4.9 BB/9 rate the righty carried into the 2019 season.
Collins joined the Cubs on a late-spring signing, and is back up on the big league roster for the third time this season, giving Chicago a third left-handed relief option alongside Mike Montgomery and Kyle Ryan. Collins has seen action in five MLB games this year, with a 3.86 ERA over 4 2/3 innings of work.
Phillies Acquire Brad Miller
The Phillies have announced that they have acquired veteran utilityman Brad Miller from the Yankees for cash considerations.
Miller will be joining his fourth different team of the 2019 season, following an offseason minor league contract with the Dodgers, and then subsequent minors pacts with the Indians and Yankees. Miller appeared in 13 big league games for the Tribe, and has been tearing up Triple-A pitching in the Yankees’ farm system, with a massive .994 OPS over 163 PA for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
While he did hit 30 homers for the Rays in 2016, Miller hasn’t been able to provide much consistency over 2545 career plate appearances for Seattle, Tampa, Milwaukee, and Cleveland. His career .240/.313/.409 slash line grades him as an exactly league-average 100 OPS+ for his career, though he’s had notably more success against right-handed pitching. This will provide Philadelphia with a sorely-needed left-handed bat for their bench mix.
Miller isn’t known as much of a defender no matter the position, though he has experience at all seven infield and outfield positions over his seven-year career. He has exclusively worked in the infield over the last three seasons, however, so Miller could handle those duties while Jay Bruce and Scott Kingery see more time in the Phils’ troubled outfield.
With Miller now in the fold and Roman Quinn returning from the injured list this weekend, the Phillies are looking at a significant shakeup of their bench. Miller’s presence could make one of Sean Rodriguez or Phil Gosselin redundant, while Quinn could supplant Nick Williams as the primary backup outfielder.