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Rangers Acquire International Bonus Money From Orioles

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The Rangers have acquired international slot bonus money from the Orioles in exchange for minor league righty David Lebron, as per an announcement from the Orioles.

The trade represents an interesting twist for Baltimore, who has been amassing international draft money for months in various other deals in an attempt to revitalize the franchise’s long-dormant international development pipeline.  Owner Peter Angelos had long shied away from spending on int’l prospects, though the organization’s stance changed significantly once Angelos’ sons took on a larger role in the Orioles’ operations.  Under new general manager Mike Elias, the club has hired the well-regarded Koby Perez as Baltimore’s new senior director of international scouting.

After coming up short in their pursuit of Cuban prospects Sandy Gaston, Victor Victor Mesa, and Victor Mesa Jr., the O’s were left with easily the largest bonus pool of any team of the 2018-19 international signing period, with close to $6MM in available funds.  (The Dodgers were next on the list with just $1.4MM.)

Interestingly, both Baltimore and Texas were two of the teams reportedly interested in Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez, who is the most highly-touted prospect on the int’l market after being cleared to sign with Major League teams in late January.  Texas has only $850K remaining in its signing pool, so the Rangers could be trying to add more money to land Sanchez, and could perhaps make more deals in the coming days or weeks to add extra funds from teams that have satisfied their needs in this signing period (or were under spending restrictions in this period).

By specifically trading with Texas, it could indicate that the Orioles are out on Sanchez, since it would make little sense to assist a rival in signing a prospect that the O’s themselves want.  Theoretically, the Orioles might already have a price point in mind for Sanchez that sits at less than $6MM, so they’re simply trading some of their own excess space to the Rangers, who will then pursue other prospects.  Baltimore is in something of an unusual position, as most teams have long since exhausted their bonus pools by this time in the 2018-19 signing period, yet there also isn’t much in the way of premium talent remaining other than Sanchez.

Lebron was a 26th-round pick for Texas in last summer’s amateur draft.  A 25-year-old product of the University of Tampa, Lebron posted a 1.31 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 3.17 K/9 rate over his first 20 2/3 professional innings.  Lebron pitched exclusively as a reliever for the Rangers’ low-A and high-A affiliates, though his season was cut short to injury in August.

Cubs Yet To Discuss Extensions With Javy Baez, Kyle Hendricks

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The Cubs haven’t yet begun talks with second baseman Javier Baez or right-hander Kyle Hendricks about potential contract extensions, the two players told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Both said that they “would love to stay” with the team over the long term, and would welcome such negotiations if they took place.

Both Baez and Hendricks avoided arbitration with the Cubs this winter, agreeing to respective salaries of $5.2MM and $7.405MM for the 2019 season.  Baez was arb-eligible for the first of three times this winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2021 campaign, while Hendricks was in his second arbitration year and can become a free agent after the 2020 season.

It is still early in spring camp, and the Cubs could yet begin talks with Baez, Hendricks, or any number of players over the coming weeks.  Still, Baez and Hendricks stand out as perhaps the two most obvious extension candidates on the roster, even beyond the notable players who could be free agents after the 2019 season.  Of that group, the Cubs control Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana via club options for 2020, while the team probably isn’t likely to explore extending veterans like Cole Hamels or Ben Zobrist until later in the year or even after the season, to guard against declines from either veteran (Hamels is 35, Zobrist is 37).

Baez broke out as one of the game’s best all-around players last season, hitting .290/.326/.554 with 34 homers and a league-high 111 RBI over 645 plate appearances.  Baez augmented his first above-average run producing (131 wRC+) season with solid overall baserunning that included 21 steals, as well as his typically strong glovework at multiple infield positions (699 2/3 innings at second base, 462 2/3 IP at shortstop, 142 2/3 IP at third base).  Among all position players, Baez ranked 10th in bWAR (6.3) and 14th in fWAR (5.3) last season.

With Kris Bryant indicating a willingness to go year-to-year until he reaches free agency after 2021, Baez stands out as the Cubs’ top young building block.  Among other recent young infielders to sign extensions, Eugenio Suarez’s seven-year, $66MM deal with the Reds and Jean Segura’s five-year, $70MM extension with the Mariners could be potential comps, even if neither quite fit Baez’s situation.  For instance, Suarez was locking in his first big professional payday as something of a surprise breakout performer, whereas Baez was a hyped prospect for years before reaching the big leagues.  Segura was also over a year older at the time of his extension than Baez is now, and had only one arbitration year remaining.

Hendricks, meanwhile, has been a solid and usually durable member of Chicago’s rotation for four seasons.  Something of a throwback pitcher with a sub-90mph fastball, Hendricks has relied on soft-to-medium contact rather than big strikeouts (career 7.62 K/9) to good effect in his career, posting a 3.14 ERA over the 708 2/3 innings since 2015.  The 29-year-old’s best season came in the Cubs’ World Series campaign of 2016, when Hendricks posted a league-best 2.13 ERA.

Hendricks’ arsenal might help him project better as a long-term investment for the Cubs or potential future free agent suitors, as it isn’t like he is a hard-tossing strikeout artist who could be more apt to decline with a loss in velocity.  What could harm Hendricks’ chances at an extension, however, is that Chicago made such a huge investment in its starting staff, and gotten next to nothing in return from Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood.  Beyond 2020, however, Hamels, Chatwood, Quintana, and potentially Jon Lester (depending on a vesting option) will no longer be on the books, leaving the Cubs in search of arms.  Prospects like Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, or Justin Steele could be contributing by that point, of course, though the Cubs might also want to have another solid veteran on hand to augment that bunch.  (Also, the Cubs have had enough difficulty in developing pitchers in recent years that relying on prospects doesn’t seem sound.)

Of course, as Wittenmyer notes, discussions about extensions also need to factor in whether a player could be more apt to sign an extension rather than test an increasingly hostile free agent market.  “You have to look at what’s going on around the league, for sure.  You have to educate yourself on things that have happened in the past and what the market looks like now, then make the best decision possible,” Hendricks said.  The threat of a potential work stoppage could impact Baez the most directly, as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, 2021 — roughly a month after Baez is eligible to hit free agency.

Transaction Retrospection: The Charlie Blackmon Extension

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Throughout the Rockies’ franchise history, the team hasn’t been shy about extending key members of the roster.  Colorado’s biggest extension yet could be in the offing, as the Rockies continue to talk with All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a long-term deal that would keep Arenado away from free agency next winter.

If such a contract is worked out, it would easily be the most expensive deal in Rockies’ history, not to mention one of the pricier deals in Major League history.  It would also be the second major extension completed by Jeff Bridich in his time as Colorado’s general manager, coming on the heels of the club’s five-year extension with Charlie Blackmon last spring.  That deal is worth revisiting now, given what we’ve seen about the free agent outfield market (or, really, just the free agent market in general) after a second consecutive slow offseason of signing activity.

Blackmon was 31 at the time of the extension (he turned 32 last July 1), and, like Arenado is now, also a year away from reaching free agency.  Blackmon had posted solid numbers as a part-time player and then as a regular with Colorado in 2013-15, though he stood a big step forward to hit .327/.390/.578 with 66 homers over 1366 plate appearances in 2016-17.  That performance saw Blackmon earn a Silver Slugger Award in both seasons, as well as a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2017.

With the Rockies coming off a postseason appearance in 2017, the team moved to lock up a top performer, agreeing to an extension that guarantees Blackmon at least $94MM from 2019-23.  Blackmon earns $21MM in each of the next three seasons, and then has a player option for another $21MM season in 2022.  He then has another player option year for 2023 worth $10MM in guaranteed money, though another $8MM is available via escalators based plate-appearance thresholds that seem rather readily achievable, or on MVP finishes.  (The deal also technically adjusted Blackmon’s previously agreed-upon $14MM arbitration salary for 2018, turning $2MM of that figure into a signing bonus.)  All told, the extension could max out at $102MM in new money for Blackmon once all is said and done.

Even sticking to the guaranteed $94MM figure, however, Blackmon’s contract already looks like an outlier in the wake of how baseball’s free agent marketplace has evolved over the last two winters.  Manny Machado and Patrick Corbin are the only 2018-19 free agents who earned more than $94MM in guaranteed money this winter.  Bryce Harper will be the third name on this list once he eventually signs, and it’s doubtful that Dallas Keuchel will meet even MLBTR’s four-year/$82MM projected contract, let alone a $94MM deal.

Blackmon’s production also took a bit of a step back in 2018, as he hit .291/.358/.502 with 29 homers over 696 plate appearances.  Still strong numbers, to be sure, though more in the vein of a solidly above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 115 OPS+) than his more elite production (137 wRC+, 136 OPS+) in 2016-17.  On the defensive side, Blackmon had been a below-average but playable center fielder throughout his career, though his glovework fell off (-28 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.6 UZR.150) to such an extent in 2018 that the Rockies will now deploy him as a right fielder this season.

Had Blackmon been a free agent this winter, his most natural comp was another center fielder, A.J. Pollock.  The newly-signed member of the Dodgers outfield lacks Blackmon’s durability and longer track record of production, but Pollock is also 17 months younger, a more stable defender, and more of a sure thing to produce in a new ballpark (Blackmon has a career .970 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .745 OPS on the road).  Pollock landed a five-year deal from the Dodgers worth $60MM in guaranteed money, so even if some teams felt that Blackmon was the better free agent bet, the gap between the two players surely wouldn’t have been $34MM.

With all this in mind, it’s fair to say that Blackmon and his representatives at ACES did a good job in landing that extension last spring.  As a soon-to-be 33-year-old headed for corner outfield duty, as hard to imagine Blackmon would’ve found five years and $94MM in free agency if he had tested the market this winter.

A win for Blackmon, however, doesn’t at all mean that the deal was a “loss” for the Rockies.  As noted, Blackmon was still a very productive hitter in 2019 — drastic home/road splits aren’t as big an issue when you’re the team that plays at Coors Field, naturally.  Blackmon also wouldn’t be the first player to improve at the plate after shifting to a less-demanding defensive position, so getting out of center field could help Blackmon’s bat as well as simply drastically elevating his defensive value.

Could Colorado have re-signed Blackmon to a lesser deal as a free agent had they not extended him a year early?  Potentially, though such a “what-if” scenario is easy to create with 20/20 hindsight (plus, you never know if another team might’ve been particularly keen on signing Blackmon).  As it worked out, the Rockies were able to retain a player they liked both on the field and in the clubhouse, even if it may have been a bit of an overpay.

Let’s also not overlook the big-picture ripple effect of the Blackmon extension as it relates to Arenado.  The third baseman now has solid proof that a Bridich-led front office is willing to pay to keep a homegrown star in the fold, and retain members of what has been a winning core group that has reached consecutive postseasons.  Money-wise, Blackmon’s long-term contract presents no real obstacle to the Rockies being able to afford Arenado, given that negotiations are already taking place and the organization is cognizant of the $200MM+ it will surely take to keep Arenado in the fold.  From a return-on-investment standpoint, Blackmon’s contract also looks like much less of a problem for the Rockies’ payroll than the lack of production they’ve received from recent free agent signings like Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, or Bryan Shaw.

It will also be interesting to see how Blackmon’s extension stands in the wider scope of future extensions for star players a season away from free agency.  We’ve already seen some notable extensions this spring, though those deals went to players (Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Jorge Polanco, etc.) who were still arbitration-controlled for several seasons, rather than pending members of the 2019-20 free agent class.  For some of those scheduled free agents who are already in their 30’s, the thought of an extended stint in free agency and/or a lesser contract than expected have surely crossed these players’ minds in the wake of the last two offseasons.

Blackmon’s contract may represent a best-case scenario for such players if they do pursue extensions, as Blackmon and his camp were able to score at what may be the peak of the outfielder’s value and earning potential.  Of course, it takes two to tango, and it remains to be seen if teams besides the Rockies are willing to pay a premium in an extension for a player who isn’t either a true elite veteran (like a Nolan Arenado) or a younger, arbitration-controlled star who could prove to be a bargain if locked up early.  As a team wanting to both win now and to send an early signal to Arenado that they wanted to win the future, however, the Rockies felt Blackmon’s extension was clearly worth the plunge.

Mike Soroka Experiencing Shoulder Discomfort

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TODAY: Sorokoa provided an update to reporters (including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and The Athletic’s David O’Brien), describing his shoulder issue as an “overload thing,” possibly from offseason workouts.  He said his current shoulder problem isn’t related to the injuries that plagued him last season, and that he expects to be throwing within a few days and then pitching in game action late in Spring Training.

FRIDAY: Braves righty Mike Soroka has been shut down for an as-yet-undetermined stretch after experiencing discomfort in his throwing shoulder, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com was among those to report. It seems he will not require an MRI at this time, with the suspicion being that he is just dealing with tendinitis.

The hope had been that Soroka would be able to participate fully in camp after indications were that he was throwing without pain in the run-up to Spring Training. He had shown quite a bit of promise in a brief MLB run in 2018, but missed much of the season owing to shoulder problems.

As things have shaken out, there’s no real path for Soroka to battle for an Opening Day rotation spot. Instead, per skipper Brian Snitker, the club’s training staff is “just going to slow play him now.” Soroka will get some rest and then be watched carefully as he attempts to ramp things back up.

The hope at this point is that it’s just a blip for the talented 21-year-old. Snitker says that “everything checks out fine” from a structural perspective and that Soroka’s “strength is fine.” There’s even hope that Soroka will be back on a throwing program within the week, per the manager.

Braves fans can breathe easy for the time being, then. So long as Soroka bounces back and doesn’t experience further discomfort, he’ll still be available for almost all of the 2019 campaign. And the club still has a few other exciting youngsters, led by Touki Toussaint, ready to step into the fifth spot in the rotation. Of course, it’s also not the most comforting thing to hear after all that Soroka went through last year.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the injury could well hurt Soroka’s pocketbooks. Once healthy, he will likely be optioned, stopping the clock on his service time. He picked up 153 days last year, much of it on the disabled (now injured) list, which would set him up for future Super Two qualification unless he spends a decent portion of the upcoming campaign in the minors.

Brewers Sign Brett Lawrie

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TODAY: Lawrie’s deal with the Brewers is now official, the team announced.

FEBRUARY 9: Infielder Brett Lawrie, out of baseball since the conclusion of the 2016 season, announced on Instagram today that he has signed with Milwaukee. Per Robert Murray of the Athletic, the deal is a minors pact with a club option for 2020, and may reach up to $7MM in total value. If he cracks the MLB roster at any point during the 2019 season, he’ll earn $1MM. The deal also includes performance bonuses in 2019, with “escalators” baked in to the 2020 option.

The 29-year-old Lawrie made his early-career mark with the Blue Jays, where his abrasive, hard-nosed style of play split critics and admirers evenly apart. After four injury-marred seasons in Toronto, wherein the Canadian-born Lawrie settled in as a league-average bat with an on-again, off-again glove, the then-24-year-old was the centerpiece of the ridiculously lopsided trade that sent eventual AL MVP Josh Donaldson to the Jays.

Though he made it through a mostly-full season for the first time, Lawrie was a disappointment in Oakland. His famously aggressive style in the box teetered too far to the negative extreme, at times spilling over to the basepaths, and even on the field, where his verbal outbursts and come-get-me persona overshadowed a lethargic statistical output. After a 0.9 fWAR season, suppressed largely by an awful defensive performance, Lawrie was shipped early in the offseason to the South side of Chicago.

With the White Sox, Lawrie’s strikeout rate ballooned to career-high 28.4%, and he again struggled to stay on the field. Still, his offensive performance maintained its even flow, as he fell around five percent below league-average for the third consecutive season.

Forecasting a player after such a long absence is a difficult task, but the offensive bar in the Brewers infield has been set shockingly low. The club is set to enter the season with a platoon of Cory Spangenberg and Hernan Perez at second, neither of whom can match Lawrie’s league-average (.261/.315/.419, 100 wRC+) track record. If the rust is surface-layer, Lawrie should find his way back to the major-league roster in short order.

“Optimism” Phillies, Bryce Harper Will Finalize 10-Year Deal By Monday

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9:55pm: Harper’s camp actually negotiated with two teams in Las Vegas on Saturday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s not clear who was vying against the Phillies, though, nor is it known whether the other club made any progress in talks.

9:41pm: Middleton is still in Vegas, and there’s “optimism” the Phillies and Harper will finalize a 10-year deal by Monday afternoon, Nightengale reports.

9:19pm: Middleton’s plane is returning to the East Coast, but the two sides had a “busy day of meetings” and talks will continue, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly tweets.

8:39pm: The Phillies are engaged in “deep and serious negotiations” with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Team owner John Middleton, who’s meeting with Harper’s camp in Las Vegas, doesn’t want to leave without a deal in place, according to Nightengale.

The Vegas-based meeting between the Phillies and Team Harper, which also includes agent Scott Boras, is their second summit since Jan. 10. After the sides’ initial sitdown, Nightengale named Philadelphia as the favorite to sign Harper, which has remained the case in the ensuing weeks. Now, with the season fast approaching and the current class’ other elite free agent, Manny Machado, having come off the board this week, a resolution for Harper may finally be on the way.

Machado’s months-long stay on the open market came to an end when he accepted the Padres’ 10-year, $300MM offer. The Phillies also had interest in Machado, but they weren’t willing to approach the Padres’ proposal, leaving Harper as the clear-cut best free agent available. Having watched Machado come off the board, the Phillies  “will be much more reluctant to walk away” from Harper, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer relayed this week.

Whether with the Phillies or another team, Harper seemingly has a good chance to exceed Machado’s guarantee – the largest ever given to a free agent. However, the 26-year-old Harper’s market hasn’t quite come together as expected this offseason, evidenced in part by his unemployed status as March nears. Aside from the Phillies, who entered the offseason promising to spend (which they’ve done, albeit nowhere close to “stupid” amounts), the Nationals, White Sox, Padres and Giants have shown varying levels of interest in Harper. Among that group, Philly easily looks like the most aggressive team in the race. Although Harper has spent his entire career in Washington, where he has starred, team owner Mark Lerner painted a bleak picture Friday when asked if the Nationals would re-sign him. Meanwhile, the White Sox may not even bid on Harper, the Padres don’t appear to be serious suitors, and the Giants are shying away from a long-term commitment.

All things considered, it seems the stars are aligning for the Phillies to land their coveted target after months of chasing him. While the Phillies haven’t finished above .500 in a season since 2011 and are mired in a seven-year playoff drought, they’re making a strong push to contend in 2019. Regardless of what happens with Harper, Philadelphia has already made major improvements this offseason by acquiring catcher J.T. Realmuto, shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and reliever David Robertson. But there’s still plenty of room for Harper, a Hall of Fame-level talent who could help propel the franchise back to relevance.

AL Notes: Yanks, Tulo, Voit, Bird, Mariners, Rays

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When the offseason began in late October, the Yankees were a popular pick to become Manny Machado’s next team as he sought a record contract in free agency. As it turns out, though, the Yankees didn’t pursue Machado as aggressively as many expected them to, and he’s now a member of the Padres after signing a 10-year, $300MM guarantee with them this week.

On Friday, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman spoke about their decision to back off Machado, claiming the team’s league-minimum signing of oft-injured infielder Troy Tulowitzki in early January played a key part, per John Harper of SNY.tv. Tulowitzki was once an elite player, as Machado currently is, but he’s now a 34-year-old coming off a season lost to heel issues. Nevertheless, the Yankees are “banking on the problem being fixed,” according to Cashman, who signed Tulowitzki after the Blue Jays released him and ate nearly all of the $38MM left on his contract. Tulowitzki was one of several offseason acquisitions for the Yankees, though the big-spending franchise didn’t break the bank on any of its pickups – something it often did under late owner George Steinbrenner, who passed away in 2010.

“Those days are gone,” Cashman said of his former boss’ reign, owing to the “completely different” system the league operates under now compared to then. Cashman, who answers to Steinbrenner’s son Hal these days, contends that “the game now rewards — and reward might not be the right word — but it rewards losing. It drags teams that are struggling back up into the winning environment, and penalizes teams that have been winning by pushing them back.” As Harper points out, Cashman was likely alluding to the luxury tax, revenue sharing and the league’s capped spending on draft picks and international signings as detriments to the Yankees and other clubs of their ilk.

More from New York and a couple other AL cities…

  • Luke Voit and Greg Bird are competing to be the Yankees’ Opening Day first baseman, and it appears to be an all-or-nothing battle. It’s doubtful the loser will crack the team’s season-opening roster, George A. King III of the New York Post relays, which seems to rule out a platoon between the righty-hitting Voit and the lefty-swinging Bird. It looks as if free-agent signing DJ LeMahieu, a second baseman by trade, could serve as the team’s backup at first, as manager Aaron Boone said Saturday, “I see [DJ] LeMahieu getting some reps there.’’ Boone also declared that Bird is a superior defender to Voit, Coley Harvey of ESPN reports. Still, given that Voit far outdid Bird at the plate in 2018, it would be surprising if the latter wins back his old job coming out of camp. Both players have minor league options remaining, though, so the Yankees wouldn’t have any difficulty demoting the runner-up to Triple-A.
  • The Mariners have promoted Joe Bohringer to assistant general manager, per a team announcement. A special assistant to Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto since 2015, Bohringer will take over for Jeff Kingston, who left the M’s to become the Dodgers’ VP/AGM in December. Bohringer’s duties will include overseeing the Mariners’ analytics departments and acting as the primary liaison between their front office and medical staff, the club announced. Bohringer’s in his second run with Seattle, having previously worked as an area scouting supervisor with the franchise from 2002-06. Along with his Mariners stints, he has served in scouting capacities with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Cubs at the major league level.
  • Longtime FanGraphs writer Jeff Sullivan announced Friday that he has taken a job with the Rays. His departure from FanGraphs is a blow to the many who enjoyed reading his excellent pieces, but it should be a boon for Tampa Bay. While it’s unknown which role Sullivan has taken with the Rays, he’s an intriguing addition to a front office that’s known for its use of analytics and willingness to innovate.

Padres Rumors: Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel

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The Padres stole headlines this week when they signed one of the game’s elite players, third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, to a 10-year, $300MM guarantee. But it appears the Machado pickup will be the Padres’ lone massive splash in free agency this year.

While San Diego has at least considered pursuing free-agent superstar Bryce Harper, the team’s talks with agent Scott Boras have focused more on still-unemployed left-hander Dallas Keuchel than Harper, Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report. Keuchel would be a noteworthy addition in his own right, but the chances of the pitcher-needy Padres signing him aren’t great, according to Rosenthal and Lin, who note it’s a “longshot.” That jibes with a report from Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who tweeted Saturday that the Padres “don’t see a fit” for Keuchel.

If the Padres aren’t going to seriously pursue Harper, who may join Machado in collecting a $300MM-plus guarantee, it seems to make it all the more likely he’ll head to Philadelphia. The Phillies – who just had at least their second in-person meeting with Harper – have been seen as the favorites to sign him throughout the offseason, for one. Moreover, it doesn’t appear there are other teams champing at the bit to meet the six-time All-Star’s asking price.

The Nationals, Harper’s only team to date, may have “moved on”; the White Sox, despite their clear weaknesses in the outfield, reportedly aren’t going to bid on Harper; and the Giants, despite their own outfield issues, don’t seem willing to give the former NL MVP a long-term contract. Barring a change of heart from one of those clubs or the emergence of an aggressive mystery team(s), then, Harper to the Phillies still appears to be the most probable conclusion to this protracted derby.

Unlike Harper, the 31-year-old Keuchel has hardly dominated headlines since last season ended. Even though Keuchel’s a onetime AL Cy Young winner with an excellent track record, there is nothing to suggest anyone has pursued him with much gusto in recent months. Of course, he and Boras may not have helped the hurler’s cause with an exorbitant early winter asking price – reportedly six to seven years and between $25MM and $30MM. Since the offseason began, Keuchel’s next contract has always seemed a solid bet to fall well short of that price in terms of both length and dollars.

In the end, it’s possible Keuchel will head back to Houston, where he has spent his entire professional career since it selected him in the seventh round of the 2009 draft. Not only could the Astros use another proven starter, but owner Jim Crane suggested this week that the team hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Keuchel.

Yankees Have Discussed Extensions With Aaron Hicks, Dellin Betances

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Center fielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Dellin Betances represent a pair of the Yankees’ best soon-to-be free agents, but it’s possible the team will prevent them from reaching the open market next winter. The club has “broached” contract extensions with Hicks and Betances, James Wagner of the New York Times reports. It’s unclear whether the Yankees have made headway in talks with either player, however.

After joining the Yankees in a November 2015 trade with the Twins, Hicks endured a 2016 to forget in his first season in the Bronx. He has since blossomed into one of the majors’ most valuable center fielders, though, as he combined for 8.2 fWAR and in 225 games and 942 plate appearances from 2017-18. Hicks derived most of his value last season from his bat, with which he produced a potent .248/.366/.467 line. Along the way, the switch-hitting Hicks managed career highs in home runs (27), wRC+ (127) and isolated power (.219), also posting an excellent walk rate (15.5 percent, compared to an above-average strikeout percentage of 19.1), stealing 11 bases on 13 tries and earning elite overall baserunning marks from FanGraphs. Defensive Runs Saved (minus-3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (0.7) weren’t enamored of Hicks’ work in center, especially compared to his output in 2017 (15 DRS, 7.0 UZR), but he was still worth a lofty 4.9 fWAR on the season.

Now, as he enters his age-29 season, Hicks is open to an extension to remain in New York.

“It’s an amazing place with a great future and of course it’s something I’d like to be a part of,” Hicks told Wagner, and he suggested earlier in the week (via Randy Miller of NJ.com) that the contract A.J. Pollock signed with the Dodgers in free agency this offseason could be a starting point in negotiations.

“Of course,” Hicks said of Pollock’s four-year, $60MM guarantee. “When center fielders get contracts, of course I’m going to get excited about that. He’s a good player and he’s going to a good team.”

Hicks was the better, more durable player than Pollock over the previous two seasons, and the former’s also two years younger than the latter. Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports are sure to emphasize those points in their discussions with the Yankees, and as we noted earlier in the offseason, they could perhaps try to push their client closer to the $80MM-plus guarantees center fielders Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain signed during the 2016 and ’17 offseasons, respectively. For now, Hicks is slated to make a more-than-reasonable $6MM salary in 2019 after avoiding arbitration with the Yankees last month.

Betances, like Hicks, avoided arbitration in January, agreeing to a $7.125MM sum. It’s the second straight year in which the two sides found common ground and forewent arbitration, which is notable given the battle between Betances and the Yankees in February 2017. Back then, the sides engaged in a contentious arbitration hearing which culminated in a win for the Yankees and a public spat between Betances’ camp and team president Randy Levine. Betances hinted then that he was looking forward to free agency, but it’s unknown whether the New York City native has changed his stance since then.

What is clear is that Betances has been a world-class setup man dating back to his 2014 debut. Over his first half-decade in the majors, the towering right-hander led all relievers in fWAR (11.6) and innings pitched (373 1/3), and he also ranked toward the top of the sport in ERA (2.22), FIP (2.26) and K/9 (14.63, compared to 3.91 BB/9). Betances is now coming off a year in which he continued to pump high-90s heat while logging a strong 2.70 ERA/2.47 FIP across 66 2/3 frames, over which he registered a ridiculous 15.53 strikeouts per nine (trailing only teammate Aroldis Chapman and the Brewers’ Josh Hader in that regard) against a manageable 3.51 BB/9.

All of Betances’ numbers suggest the Excel Sports Management client is on track to land a sizable deal sometime before the 2020 season, whether from the Yankees or another team. While youth isn’t necessarily on Betances’ side – he’ll turn 31 next month – similarly aged, arguably less desirable relievers such as teammate Zack Britton (three years, $39MM) and the Rockies’ Wade Davis (three years, $52MM) have scored big deals in free agency dating back to December 2017. Betances could also be keeping an eye on free agent Craig Kimbrel, who’s had a difficult time on the market over the past few months but still figures to rake in a lucrative contract before the upcoming campaign.

While the Yankees are clearly interested in keeping Hicks and Betances in the fold for the foreseeable future, they aren’t the championship hopefuls’ only notable pending free agents. Injured shortstop Didi Gregorius, outfielder Brett Gardner and backup catcher Austin Romine are also scheduled to reach the market after the season. It’s unknown if the Yankees have discussed new contracts with any of them, however.

Latest On Craig Kimbrel

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4:38 PM: Per Kimbrel’s agent David Meter, via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the report that Kimbrel would consider sitting out the 2019 season is false: “The report is wholly inaccurate and Craig looks forward to signing a new contract in the near future. Any report pertaining to his not playing this season is utterly false.”

2:27 PM: Jim Bowden of The Athletic cites “multiple GMs” in a report stating that reliever Craig Kimbrel’s asking price has not dropped from its lofty mid-offseason perch. In the same tweet, Bowden notes that “sources close” to the 30-year-old believe he would “consider” sitting out the 2019 season if the offers continue to fall well short of his ask.

The seven-time all-star, who’s fanned at least 13.5 men per nine in each of his nine MLB seasons, entered the offseason primed to set a new record for both length and total value of a relief-pitching contract. His initial ask, as reported by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark and ESPN’s Buster Olney, was a 6-year deal for at least $100MM, a figure that, in this market, had little chance to be met. By Christmas, the price was hovering near Aroldis Chapman’s record-setting 5-year, $86MM deal, though it doesn’t appear to have fallen further in the weeks to come.

Though the demands seem reasonable, especially for Kimbrel’s former club, the deep-pocketed, reliever-starved Red Sox, a competitive market has thus far not emerged around the flame-thrower. Some of the tepid interest can surely be owed to the righty’s age (31 in May) and his declining peripherals (a career-worst 28.2% ground-ball rate, 1.01 HR/9, and 3.13 FIP/xFIP), but Kimbrel has bucked the volatile-reliever archetype as well as any in the history of the game, and his average fastball velocity, long a marker for imminent decline, still sits at a sizzling 97.5 MPH.

The rest, it seems, is centered in the avant-garde approach to player evaluation, where short-term, high-average-annual-value deals are all the rage, and even the richest clubs snub their noses at name-brands and track records. Certain suitors, like the free-spending Phils, are holding firmly to their internal valuations – as they did, recently, with Manny Machado – while others, like the division-rival Braves, are playing poor. Boston, of course, would be on the hook for nearly $30MM in 2019 if it were to sign him to a deal approaching his reputed ask, and can be reasonably excused for its reluctance.

The rest of the league, though – especially would-be contenders with back-end needs, like the Indians, Twins, Angels, and Cubs – seems to have little defense.

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