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Diamondbacks Re-Sign Rubby De La Rosa To Minors Deal

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The D-backs announced Tuesday evening that they’ve re-signed right-hander Rubby De La Rosa to a two-year, minor league contract. He’d been released by the Diamondbacks back in September after undergoing a second career Tommy John surgery in August. He’s been assigned to Double-A Jackson and will spend 2018 rehabbing with the hope of returning to a big league mound in 2019.

De La Rosa, 29 next March, battled UCL issues in 2016 but elected to undergo stem cell therapy rather than a second Tommy John procedure. The stem cell treatment looked to have done the trick at one point this past season, as De La Rosa turned in excellent numbers across three minor league levels (mostly Triple-A) before returning to the Diamondbacks in late June. Unfortunately, he’d toss just 7 2/3 innings before going back on the shelf and ultimately going under the knife once again.

A former top prospect, De La Rosa has yet to establish himself as a regular rotation member in the big leagues, but many have wondered how he’d fare as a full-time reliever over the course of his big league career. In this past season’s brief sample, he averaged a hearty 97.1 mph on his fastball, lending credence to the notion that he could function as a power arm out of the ’pen if he ditched his changeup and went with a pure fastball/slider combination. De La Rosa has long fared better against right-handed opponents and could become overpowering against them if his stuff plays up in a short-relief role.

The D-backs won’t be able to gauge that anytime in the near future, of course, but De La Rosa will be a name to keep an eye on when his elbow is (hopefully) healed up for the 2019 season — his age-30 campaign.

Twins To Sell Michael Tonkin’s Contract To Japan’s Nippon Ham Fighters

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The Twins have sold the contractual rights of right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin to the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter links).

The move will benefit both sides, as it clears a 40-man roster spot for the Twins and gives Tonkin the opportunity to land a significantly larger payday than he’d have received in the United States; he’ll sign a two-year, $2.1MM contract with the Fighters, per Berardino. The Wasserman client will also have the opportunity to earn an additional $500K worth of “reachable” incentives, and he’ll have the chance to serve as the Fighters’ closer as well.

Tonkin, 28 later this month, was one of the top-rated relief prospects in the Twins’ system for several years but has yet to capitalize on that promise in the Major League level. He’s received multiple opportunities with the Twins, appearing for the big league club in each of the past five seasons but never seizing a permanent session in the club’s bullpen. In 146 1/3 innings with the Twins, Tonkin has pitched to a 4.43 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate. He has, however, consistently dominated the Triple-A level, pitching to a 2.41 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 160 1/3 innings.

The move will subtract yet another player from the Twins’ 40-man roster and, according to Berardino, net the Twins more than $500K in addition to the 40-man spot. In the past week, the Twins have lost left-hander Randy Rosario to the Cubs, outfielder Daniel Palka to the White Sox and left-hander Nik Turley to the Pirates (all via waivers). Once Tonkin’s move to the Fighters is complete, Minnesota’s 40-man roster will stand at 33 players. Major League teams have until Nov. 20 to set their 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft, so the Twins could yet shed another player or two in advance of that deadline to clear room for additional prospects to be protected.

John Lackey Intends To Pitch In 2018

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While there’s been speculation that veteran right-hander John Lackey could call it a career following the 2017 season, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports (via Twitter) that Lackey has no plans to retire and intends to pitch in 2018.

The 39-year-old Lackey just wrapped up a two-year, $32MM contract with the Cubs. After a strong first season, the 15-year veteran took a step back in 2017, turning in a 4.59 ERA with an NL-high 36 home runs allowed in 170 innings. Lackey, though, delivered a solid 7.9 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 with a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate. Though his velocity took a small step back, Lackey still averaged 90.9 mph on his heater.

While those numbers are the worst Lackey has posted since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2013, he remains a durable arm that can help to stabilize a club’s rotation. Lackey has averaged 30 starts and 193 innings per season dating back to that ’13 campaign, recording a 3.57 ERA in 964 1/3 regular-season innings and a 3.82 ERA in 66 postseason innings along the way.

Between his age and marginal results in the 2017 season with the Cubs, Lackey seems likely to command a one-year deal this offseason from a team in search of consistent innings. The Cubs stand to lose not only Lackey but also Jake Arrieta, so it’s possible that president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer could express interest in bringing Lackey back at a more affordable rate. He should also garner interest from other contenders seeking to stabilize the back of the rotation. Veterans like R.A. Dickey ($8MM) and Bartolo Colon ($12MM) were able to lock in fairly sizable commitments on one-year pacts last winter, and Lackey could very well look to land a deal in the same range.

Red Sox Notes: Hanley, 1B/DH, Luxury Tax, Cora

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Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made no secret about his desire to add a bat to play first base or handle DH at yesterday’s press conference to announce manager Alex Cora, as MassLive.com’s Jen McCaffrey writes. “We need to score more runs,” said Dombrowski, noting that while there’s room for internal improvements, the team can add outside the organization as well. “…But we do have probably the open spot of first base slash DH, and so that’s a place we’ll try to create some offense there.” Per Dombrowski, the Sox have received positive news from Hanley Ramirez’s surgeons, who believe that the 33-year-old’s shoulder operation will allow him to return to first base next season. Dombrowski stressed that Ramirez may yet be the DH, depending on the bat the team acquires, but his progress at least allows them some flexibility in their search.

A bit more out of Boston…

  • Dombrowski also suggested that the team does not need to prioritize staying under the luxury tax barrier for a second consecutive season, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Asked if he thought that was a goal for his club, Dombrowski bluntly stated, “No, I do not.” Principal owner John Henry also suggested that the luxury tax barrier isn’t likely to be a deterrent for Dombrowski and his staff as the Boston front office looks to add to its lineup this offseason.
  • Cora dedicated a portion of yesterday’s press conference to fielding questions on an increased implementation of data and analytics on the field, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The new skipper’s comments are well worth a full read-through, but Cora spoke about the power of presenting analytical data in a digestable format for players. Cora noted how quickly Justin Verlander took to the data presented to him following a trade to Houston, suggesting that Verlander “saw the light” and embraced the process with the Astros. Cora also indicated that the Sox could be more aggressive in terms of infield shifts in 2018 and beyond. “…And yes, we’re going to see more and more of those annoying shifts,” said Cora. “There’s going to be different formations, probably defensively, we’re going to help this infield to be better. The outfield, they’re amazing defensively, so we don’t have to make too much adjustments.” Other topics covered by Cora were the importance of analytics in baserunning as well as at times trusting the players on the field over preconceived, data-driven plans.

Roy Halladay Killed In Plane Crash

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In a stunning and overwhelmingly saddening development, the Pasco County Sheriff’s Department has announced that former Blue Jays and Phillies ace Roy Halladay was killed today when his plane crashed in the Gulf of Mexico. Halladay, just 40 years of age, was flying a single-engine Icon A5, according to the announcement.

Roy Halladay | Photo by L Redkoles/Getty Images

We at MLBTR join the baseball world in mourning the loss of one of the generation’s greatest and most beloved talents. The Phillies and the Blue Jays have offered statements on Halladay’s tragic and untimely passing:

“We are numb over the very tragic news about Roy Halladay’s untimely death.  There are no words to describe the sadness that the entire Phillies family is feeling over the loss of one of the most respected human beings to ever play the game.  It is with the heaviest of hearts that we pass along our condolences to Brandy, Ryan and Braden.”

“The Toronto Blue Jays organization is overcome by grief with the tragic loss of one of the franchise’s greatest and most respected players, but even better human being. It is impossible to express what he has meant to this franchise, the city and its fans. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family and friends.”

A two-time Cy Young winner, Halladay enjoyed a career that spanned 16 big league seasons, during which time he worked his way into the hearts of not only those in Toronto and Philadelphia, but of baseball fans around the globe. Halladay’s bulldog mentality, knack for completing his games and his uncanny ability to thrive on the biggest of stages made him an icon in the sport for more than a decade. Though he never captured a World Series Championship in his illustrious career, Halladay etched his name into postseason lore when he hurled a no-hitter against the Reds in his first-ever postseason appearance with the Phillies in 2010.

Off the field, Halladay was a multi-time nominee for Major League Baseball’s Roberto Clemente Award due to his extensive work with sick and underprivileged children. Halladay created the “Doc’s Box for Kids” program at Toronto’s Rogers Centre — a charity in which visitors from Toronto’s Hospital for Sick Children were invited to enjoy Blue Jays games in a private and kid-friendly skybox, as Jordan Bastian detailed for MLB.com back in 2010. Halladay’s “Strikeout Challenge” with the Blue Jays also allowed Jays fans to pledge donations for each of Halladay’s strikeouts over the course of a season, with the proceeds going to the Jays Care Foundation to benefit sick children.

Halladay walked away from the game of baseball at the age of 36 as one of the sport’s most revered personalities and well-respected players. The eight-time All-Star was a workhorse and a warrior on the mound — a callback to generations past with his penchant for racking up 200-inning seasons and finishing what he started once he took the hill. Halladay completed more than 17 percent of the games that he started as a Major Leaguer. He is survived by his wife and two sons, both of whom have followed in their father’s steps as baseball players. Halladay helped to coach both of his sons’ teams in his post-playing days.

Though Halladay was taken far too soon, he’ll forever stand out as an icon in a game that he loved and made more enjoyable for all who watched him. He’ll quite likely take his place among baseball’s greats in Cooperstown in the near future. Our most heartfelt condolences are extended to his family, friends, former teammates and countless fans around the world. Rest in peace, Doc.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Red Sox are looking to add pieces for not just another trip to the postseason, but a deep march into October under new manager Alex Cora.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • David Price, SP: $157MM through 2022 (can opt out after 2018)
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $56MM through 2021
  • Rick Porcello, SP: $42MM through 2019
  • Rusney Castillo, OF: $35.5MM through 2020 (can opt out after 2019)
  • Hanley Ramirez, 1B/DH: $22MM through 2018 ($22MM option for 2019 vests if Ramirez makes 497 plate appearances in 2018 and passes a physical after the season)
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: $13MM through 2018
  • Chris Sale, SP: $12.5MM through 2018 ($15MM club option for 2019 with $1MM buyout)

Obligations To Former Players

  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $41MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option), minus prorated MLB minimum salaries earned by Sandoval in that span

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Boston Red Sox offseason page | Boston Red Sox payroll information

John Farrell’s job security was a topic of speculation basically from the moment Dave Dombrowski was hired as the Red Sox president of baseball operations in August 2015.  Despite division titles in each of the last two years, Boston’s early exits in the ALDS finally sealed Farrell’s fate, paving the way for Cora’s hiring.  The former Astros bench coach is an intriguing hire, bringing both an appreciation for analytics and a wealth of in-game experience from his 11-year playing career.  Cora only has one year of MLB coaching duty under his belt, though he received interest in past managerial openings even before his stint in Houston.

A fresh voice in the dugout may be what is required for a Red Sox team that, despite the AL East title, seemed to almost take a step backwards in 2017 thanks to an inconsistent offense and some ongoing injury problems that will extend into the 2018 season.  Dombrowski’s first two offseasons in Boston largely consisted of a few blockbuster moves (i.e. the David Price signing, the trades for Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel) seen as final touch-type of acquisitions for a team that already has so much core talent in place.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sox make another headline-grabbing transaction to address weak spots on the roster.

Some type of infield depth would seem to be a need given that Dustin Pedroia will be out of action until at least late May or early June due to knee surgery.  Some combination of Marco Hernandez, Deven Marrero, Tzu-Wei Lin, and (if he returns) Brock Holt could fill in until Pedroia is ready, though relying on internal options for a third of the season is risky, not to mention the fact that Pedroia may not be 100 percent when he does return.

A reunion with Eduardo Nunez could be an answer to this problem, as Nunez could play second base until Pedroia is back, and then shift into a utility role.  Nunez is going to be in high demand this offseason with teams that could offer him everyday playing time, however, as Nunez doesn’t have much of a path to regular at-bats in Boston with Pedroia (eventually), Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. all locked into regular duty around the diamond.

Of course, that assumes that the Sox wouldn’t trade from that core to address another need.  Bradley has often been cited as the most expendable member of Boston’s starting outfield, and with Benintendi capable of shifting over to handle center field, Bradley could be dealt for a heavy-hitting first baseman or left fielder.

Power is a clear priority for the Red Sox this winter, coming off a year that saw Boston hit fewer homers than all but three other teams in baseball.  A full season for Devers will help in this department, as will Betts and Bogaerts recovering from nagging thumb and wrist injuries, though the simplest solution might be to just add a big bopper in free agency or via trade.

Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana will get some attention from the Red Sox this winter in the free agent first base market, plus possible trade candidates like Jose Abreu also figure to be on the radar.  If the Sox don’t want to make quite that big a splash, Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso stand out as second-tier options.

Since prospect Sam Travis is still in the picture and Hanley Ramirez could see more action at first after undergoing shoulder surgery, the Sox could look for a first baseman on a shorter-term deal, akin to their signing of Mitch Moreland last offseason.  That said, Boston figures to be looking for more than a band-aid solution at first base.  Ramirez may be close to being a full-time DH at this point in his career, and Travis only had a so-so 2017 after missing much of 2016 due to knee surgery.

One creative answer would be to sign Alex Avila — a left-handed hitting catcher who has some first base experience.  Avila could then spell both Travis/Ramirez at first, and also Christian Vazquez behind the plate.  Vazquez brings outstanding defense and he took a notable step forward at the plate in 2017, but is still a below-average hitter overall.  Adding Avila into a timeshare situation at multiple positions would allow the Red Sox to boost their lineup while still retaining Vazquez as an important regular.  Such a move would necessitate letting Sandy Leon go, though he regressed badly after his seeming breakout in the 2016 season.

If a Bradley trade scenario happens, that opens up left field and the possibility of J.D. Martinez in Boston.  Martinez is the top free agent bat available this offseason and he has past ties to Dombrowski from their days together with the Tigers.  The trade market also holds out some potential for adding power to the corner outfield, with Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates and Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins among the possibilities.  It isn’t clear if Stanton would waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to Boston, though the Red Sox are one of the few teams with the financial means to absorb the $295MM owed to Stanton through 2027.  (There’s also a chance Boston’s hypothetical commitment wouldn’t last that long, as Stanton can opt out of his deal after the 2020 season.)  A Stanton/Red Sox trade could also see the Marlins take on a big Sox salary or two in return to help offset Stanton’s cost — this could be a way for the Red Sox to get Rusney Castillo’s contract off the books, for instance — though Miami’s goal seems to be to shed as much salary as possible.

Dangling Bradley in a trade would not just clear space, of course.  Trading a player of his ability wouldn’t be undertaken lightly, even if it was done to make way for a new star. The market would likely pay quite a bit for Bradley even after a down 2017 season, which might allow the Sox to recoup prospect assets and/or address other needs on the roster.

Adding another big salary would push the Sox back over the luxury tax threshold, though as Dombrowski bluntly stated to reporters, this doesn’t appear to be a big concern.  Avoiding the tax might’ve been unavoidable anyway (as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe recently observed) given the team’s needs.  This will have the effect of limiting what the Red Sox could potentially do next offseason when multiple superstars hit the free agent market, though it could be argued that the Sox now have the opportunity to more aggressively shop for talent this winter if other big-market teams are curbing their spending in preparation for next winter.

On the pitching side, the Sox bullpen was quietly a major strength for the team last year, and should continue to be a plus even if Addison Reed, Fernando Abad, and Blaine Boyer all leave in free agency.  (The club has already parted ways with Robbie Ross after his injury-plagued year.)  These departures could be filled from within if Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg are finally healthy, plus youngsters Austin Maddox or Williams Jerez could be ready for some steady big league exposure.

Dombrowski has made a point of trading for relievers in his first two offseasons in Boston, so a new bullpen arm may be more likely to come via the trade market than free agency.  Then again, with the major exception of the Kimbrel deal, the Sox haven’t gotten much return on those reliever trades, so Dombrowski could switch tactics and look to the open market for upgrades.  The precise approach may depend upon how Boston ends up addressing the primary needs discussed above. Expect a focus on southpaws, as the pen is short on proven left-handed relievers.

The rotation could potentially also be an area of need, depending on how some injury situations progress during the spring.  David Price is hoping to be finally past the elbow problems limited him to just 74 2/3 IP last season, Steven Wright is returning from knee surgery that cost him almost all of 2017, and Eduardo Rodriguez will already be sidelined for until May or even June as he recovers from his own knee surgery.  Assuming Price and Wright are both fully recovered, the Red Sox face a possible “good problem to have” starter surplus when Rodriguez gets back.

If more health uncertainty develops during the offseason or in Spring Training, however, the Sox will check in on veteran starters for depth.  Unless a longer-term injury crops up, the team isn’t likely to pursue anything beyond innings-eating veteran options.  Dombrowski mentioned last winter how he had a tough time attracting pitchers due to the number of other starting options already on Boston’s roster, and, barring a trade, the same is true of the 2018 staff.

There is no shortage of potential moves, big or small, that could fit for the Red Sox this offseason, and Dombrowski has certainly shown his willingness to make some bold transactions.  It could be that Cora and a healthier lineup are the real “final pieces” the Sox need to challenge for a World Series next year, though it seems likely that one more star name will find his way to Fenway Park before Opening Day.

MLBTR Seeking Android App Developer

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Our Trade Rumors app for Android has been downloaded over 70,000 times and receives strong reviews.  However, the app has developed some bugs and we are seeking a new Android app developer to step in and take care of the issues.  We are seeking an individual who is able to work on the app as needed on an hourly or daily basis, hopefully over the long-term.  While we may explore new features in 2018, the immediate work will focus on fixing bugs.

If you have experience as an Android app developer, please email mlbtrandroid@gmail.com and explain your background.  Please include your expected pay rate in the email.

Mariners Outright Zach Vincej

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The Mariners have outrighted infielder Zach Vincej to Triple-A, per a club announcement. He had only recently been claimed off waivers from the Reds.

Clearly, Seattle hoped all along to grab and stash the 26-year-old infielder. He has seen brief action at the game’s highest level and could be a depth option in 2018. Perhaps the M’s also like his chances to build upon his first run at Triple-A, when he posted a .270/.325/.370 slash.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

A World Series hangover led to a surprising 43-45 record from the Cubs in the first half of the season.  The club rallied to 49-25 in the second half and just barely pulled off an NLDS win over the Nationals.  The Dodgers then dispatched the Cubs fairly easily in the NLCS, marking Chicago’s third straight appearance in the second round of the playoffs.  The Cubs are poised for an active winter, with an outfield logjam and major needs in the rotation and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Heyward, RF: $147.5MM through 2023.  Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
  • Jon Lester, SP: $85MM through 2020.  Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout.  2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
  • Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF: $28MM through 2019.
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $21MM through 2019.  Includes $16.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021.  2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes.  Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
  • Jose Quintana, SP: $9.85MM through 2018.  Includes $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2019 and an identical club option for 2020.
  • Pedro Strop, RP: $6.35MM through 2018.  Includes $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout for 2019.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]

The Cubs swung a huge, surprising trade with their crosstown rivals in July, sending four prospects to the White Sox for lefty starter Jose Quintana.  Since the Cubs control Quintana through 2020, this deal was as much about the future as the present.  Quintana adds innings and stability to a rotation that also includes Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks.  Lester and Hendricks are controlled through 2020 as well.  Jake Arrieta and John Lackey combined for 60 regular season starts for the Cubs this year, and both are now free agents.  Quintana helped prepare for the possible departure of Arrieta, but the Cubs still need to replace 40% of their rotation.

Oct 18, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta removes his cap as he is relieved in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game four of the 2017 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports

Signing Arrieta is certainly an option.  The righty, 32 in March, famously resurrected his career after a 2013 trade to the Cubs.  Back in March, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that “the belief is that [the Cubs] wouldn’t go more than four years [on a new contract for Arrieta], if that.”  Around that time, the idea was floated by Arrieta and his agent Scott Boras that a six or seven-year deal would be appropriate.  Even then I found five years much more likely.  Arrieta went on to post a decent season, but we’ve perhaps become the low man on him, projecting a four-year contract.  If we’re right, then maybe the Cubs and Arrieta can match up after all.  However, I wouldn’t expect Arrieta to sign a four-year deal in November or December.  Given where Boras was at earlier this year, four years seems possible only if Arrieta’s market disappoints, and he signs in January or February.  The Cubs may not be able to keep enough powder dry into the new year to pay Arrieta $25MM a year, even if the term comes down to four years.

Free agency offers an alternative in Yu Darvish.  Darvish is only 163 days younger than Arrieta, and he has Tommy John surgery on his résumé.  We’re projecting a six-year, $160MM deal for Darvish, a contract similar to the one the Cubs gave Lester three years ago.  I think the Cubs could look past Darvish’s pair of World Series bombs, but president Theo Epstein was noncommittal, saying regarding high-priced free agent pitching, “I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in. I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”  Of course, paying baseball players $25MM+ per year is not the preferred method of any team.  Would the Cubs prefer the devil they know with Arrieta, or would they prefer a megadeal for Darvish?

Quite possibly, it’s neither.  The Cubs seem likely to pursue one front-rotation arm and one lesser starting pitcher, and they are expected to explore the trade market.  The only established top of the rotation starting pitcher who projects to be available this winter is Chris Archer of the Rays.  Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry deftly acquired Archer from the Indians in the 2008 Mark DeRosa trade, only to ship him to Tampa Bay two years later in the Matt Garza deal.  Archer, 29, has made 32 starts in each of the last four seasons, displaying a dominant strikeout rate and earning two All-Star nods in that time.  The hard-throwing righty is on a team-friendly contract through 2021, so the Rays have no reason to force a trade this offseason.  The Cubs already spent their best remaining prospects in the Quintana deal, and would have to subtract from the Major League roster to have a shot at Archer.  It remains to be seen how willing the Cubs are to deal from their starting middle infield to acquire someone like Archer, which would lead to a defensive downgrade at second base for Chicago with some combination of Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist.

From the Rays’ point of view, would Addison Russell or Javier Baez be enough to lead a package for Archer?  Both players have four years of control remaining, same as Archer, and Russell is already eligible for arbitration.  The Rays might prefer a headliner with six years of control remaining, like Yoan Moncada in the Chris Sale trade.  Russell took a step backward in performance this year, also facing a divorce and a domestic abuse allegation.  Baez seems the more valuable asset, a player with star potential if he can rein in some of the swing-and-miss.  However, the Rays already have Willy Adames, a shortstop who is big league ready and is rated #15 among all prospects by MLB.com.  Russell or Baez might not be enough, and might not be the right fit for the Rays either.  The Cubs have run out of Top 100 prospects to deal, but could complement a trade with 50-grade prospects, including a few with big league experience in Victor Caratini and Mark Zagunis.  While some kind of position player for pitcher swap between the Cubs and Rays has been discussed by fans and executives for years, the Cubs will face stiff competition from other teams if the Rays listen on Archer.

The Cubs also have left fielder Kyle Schwarber as a primary trade chip, whether for a mid-level starting pitcher or a reliever.  Schwarber, 25 in March, is a player the Cubs have always liked more than most since they drafted him fourth overall in 2014.  Finally given a full season in the Majors after last year’s ACL tear, Schwarber was used as a platoon bat after a rough April, and even his big league success after a June Triple-A demotion (131 wRC+) has to take into account that he only faced southpaws 16.4% of the time.  With donning catching gear seemingly in the rearview for Schwarber, the pessimistic view is that he’s a platoon bat without a position.  Certainly, to trade Schwarber now would be selling low, though opening up left field for Happ full-time would alleviate the logjam and may improve the outfield defense.  Schwarber would be a better fit in the American League, where he could learn first base and spend time at designated hitter.  Danny Salazar, Kendall Graveman, Matt Andriese, Collin McHugh, and Jake Odorizzi are a few speculative trade targets.  These names are not nearly as exciting as they would have been a year ago had the Cubs shopped Schwarber.  The Cubs may well set a price on Schwarber higher than Odorizzi or McHugh, who are only under control for two more years.

The Cubs could also consider putting their faith in Schwarber and trading Happ, who they drafted ninth overall in 2015.  The 23-year-old switch-hitter would be a very valuable trade chip after a promising rookie debut; he’s still under team control for six more years.  The Cubs have yet to settle on a position for Happ, who appeared at all three outfield positions as well as second base in 2017.  He seems less likely to be moved than Schwarber.  Albert Almora Jr. also seems unlikely to be traded.  While Epstein won’t quite pencil Almora in as next year’s starting center fielder, he has at least pledged an increased role.

Free agency offers the Cubs a slew of mid-level or worse options if they don’t want to pony up for Darvish.  Alex Cobb is a name to consider, especially since he played under Cubs manager Joe Maddon and his new pitching coach, Jim Hickey.  The Cubs are also intimately familiar with Lance Lynn, who started against them 18 times in his career as a member of the Cardinals.  Last year, the Cubs made a run at Tyson Ross before settling for Brett Anderson as their fifth starter, and they could look to fill out the fifth starter spot again with a one-year bounceback guy like Chris Tillman, Clay Buchholz, or Jeremy Hellickson.

The ideal candidate for the Cubs’ rotation, of course, is 23-year-old righty Shohei Otani.  If MLB, the players’ union, Nippon Professional Baseball, and the Nippon Ham Fighters are able to reach an agreement, Otani may make the leap to MLB despite being subject to international bonus pool restrictions.  While Cubs fans are surely dreaming of Otani pitching every fifth day and patrolling the Wrigley outfield on some of his off days, the Cubs are one of a dozen teams capped at $300K in the potential bidding.  Many other teams are able to bid more than ten times as much (the theoretical maximum is about $10MM), although Otani would be leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table either way.  Like every team, the Cubs will have to do a hell of a marketing job to win Otani’s heart if he’s posted, and they can’t build their offseason around him to any degree.

The Cubs will surely cast a wide net for starting pitching, but they also have ample work to do on their bullpen.  By the end of the postseason, it seemed that Maddon only trusted closer Wade Davis.  The Cubs may make a run at Davis, which would involve holding their noses and giving him a four-year deal.  Having shown no interest in past free agent closers such as Kenley Jansen and David Robertson, I’m guessing this is again not Epstein’s “preferred method.”  Rather than give Davis or Greg Holland $15MM a year, the Cubs could get two very good relievers for a similar price, in a free agent market featuring Addison Reed, Mike Minor, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, and other quality names.  If the Cubs hit the trade market for a late inning reliever, they could pursue Alex Colome, Raisel Iglesias, Brad Hand, Zach Britton, Dellin Betances, Joakim Soria, or Kelvin Herrera.  Aside from Davis, the Cubs could also consider retaining free agent lefty Brian Duensing, who had a resurgent year for them on a $2MM contract and will be seeking a raise.

The holdovers in the Cubs’ bullpen include righties Carl Edwards Jr. and Pedro Strop and lefties Mike Montgomery and Justin Wilson.  The Cubs have Hector Rondon and his projected $6.2MM salary as well, but he’s fallen far enough out of favor that I expect them to move him in a salary dump trade.  Justin Grimm, with a $2.4MM projection, could also get the boot.  Like Quintana, Wilson was acquired in a summer trade with a partial eye on the future.  The 30-year-old southpaw has a $4.3MM salary projection, and was expected to play a key role in the Cubs’ 2018 bullpen at the time of his acquisition.  Wilson was hammered in 17 2/3 innings with the Cubs, allowing 38 baserunners in that span with horrible control.  The Cubs will try to get him back into form, but can hardly count on him.  This bullpen probably needs three or more outside additions this winter.

On the position player side, the Cubs’ needs are minimal.  A veteran backup catcher behind Willson Contreras would be helpful, filling the shoes of free agent Alex Avila.  The Cubs already have 24-year-old Victor Caratini as an option for that role, though some teams prefer a veteran presence.  Outfielder Jon Jay is also a free agent.  If Schwarber is dealt, the Cubs can still fill out their outfield with Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist.  Since Happ and Zobrist will likely play some second base, a veteran backup outfielder could be added to replace Jay.

How much can the Cubs spend to fill these needs?  Assuming Rondon and Grimm are gone, the Cubs will be paying about $106MM to 18 players, eight of whom are pre-arbitration.  The Cubs’ biggest pain points are Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist, a pair that provided 1.2 wins above replacement in 2017 and will be paid $37.5MM in 2018.  There is little to be done with those two, who both have full no-trade protection for 2018 and negative trade value anyway.  Heyward and Zobrist were generally treated as starting players this year, and both should enter 2018 with reduced playing time expectations.  The Cubs seem capable of a $180MM payroll, and despite the large salaries of Jon Lester, Heyward, and Zobrist, might be able to spend as much as $70MM on new 2018 player salaries.

The Cubs remain an immensely talented team.  They’ve got affordable star position players in Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Willson Contreras, none of whom will earn a $10MM salary in 2018.  That core is complemented by some combination of Baez, Russell, Happ, Almora, and Schwarber, depending on who is traded this winter.  While the rotation needs serious work, Hendricks proved his 2016 season was no fluke, Lester continues to provide value, and Quintana is a younger, cheaper version of Lester.  Still, there is significant work to be done this winter, much more than last winter.  “We knew that the 2017-2018 offseason would be one of our most challenging,” Epstein told reporters in an October press conference.  For the first time under Epstein, the Cubs enter an offseason with both significant holes to fill and sky-high expectations.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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