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Jay Bruce Reportedly Seeking Five-Year Deal

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Earlier tonight, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported that teams have come away from initial talks with J.D. Martinez’s camp that he’s seeking a $200MM deal, and Crasnick now tweets that clubs are under the impression that free-agent right fielder Jay Bruce is seeking $80-90MM over a five-year term.

Certainly, it’s worth keeping in mind that virtually every agent will come out aiming high early in free agency. But an early run at a five-year deal likely indicates a confidence out of Bruce’s camp that he can secure at least a four-year pact down the line. It’s a steep ask for Bruce, who the Mets were unable to trade just one year ago in a crowded market for corner bats.

Bruce’s 2017 campaign has undoubtedly boosted his stock, though. The 30-year-old (31 on April 3) hit .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs for the Mets and Indians this past season and turned in dramatically improved defensive contributions in right field. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating felt that Bruce improved by anywhere from 10 to 16 runs over his dismal 2016 season, with each metric pegging him as an above-average defender this year. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric pegged him at one out below average. At worst, it seems fair to count on him as a respectable right fielder in 2018, and it’s worth noting that he did log 91 innings at first base in 2017, as well.

The defensive turnaround isn’t necessarily without explanation. Bruce underwent arthroscopic knee surgery early in the 2014 season and rushed back to the Reds in less than three weeks’ time. He’d carried a strong defensive reputation to that point in his career — twice a +16 DRS mark, for instance — but turned in largely unimpressive numbers in the coming years. It’s possible that further distancing himself from that knee procedure helped to improve his mobility.

All that said, a $16-18MM annual salary on a five-year term (or even on a four-year pact) is ambitious for Bruce. It’s unlikely that his glovework will return to its previous heights, and he hasn’t posted even league-average offensive output against left-handed pitching since the 2013 campaign, by measure of wRC+. This past season, he slashed a meager .222/.285/.433 against lefties (albeit with a gaudy .268/.341/.542 slash while holding the platoon advantage).

Bruce’s camp will also have to deal with the reality that there will be no shortage of corner outfield options available both in free agency and on the trade market. While Bruce is probably the top free-agent alternative to Martinez now that Justin Upton has signed a new deal with the Angels, the free-agent market still offers useful veterans like Carlos Gomez and Jon Jay as well as bounceback candidates Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Bautista and Andre Ethier. Over on the trade market, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Avisail Garcia and Gerardo Parra are among the possibly available names for teams eyeing corner-outfield bats.

When looking at recent comparables, Bruce seems more similar to Josh Reddick, who signed a four-year $52MM contract last winter, than he does to the Upton and Yoenis Cespedes tier of free agent sluggers. A three-year deal for Bruce seems definitively attainable and a four-year outlay is a clear possibility, but it’d be a surprise to see him reel in a five-year guarantee — especially at such a lofty annual value.

A’s Interested In Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna

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The Athletics are beginning to amass an impressive young core, led by corner infielders Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that they’re seeking a controllable outfielder this winter as a means of adding to that core. Among the team’s targets, per Slusser, are Marlins stars Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna.

Oakland picked up highly touted Dustin Fowler in the trade that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees, and the team also has top shortstop prospect Franklin Barreto on the cusp of MLB readiness. Fowler will compete for the center field job next spring, and Barreto projects to be with the club by midseason. That young group is complemented by solid veterans like Jed Lowrie and Khris Davis.

Per Slusser, Oakland’s preference is to add a right-handed bat, though their interest in Yelich would suggest they’re not necessarily set on players of a certain handedness. Yelich’s contract, of course, plays a significant role in that interest as well. He’s owed $44.5MM through the 2021 season and also has a $15MM club option for the 2022 season. Ozuna, meanwhile, would certainly fit the criteria of a big right-handed corner outfield bat. However, he’s controllable only for another two years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.9MM next season.

Yelich’s 2017 season wasn’t quite as impressive as his 2016 campaign, but he’s still posted an excellent .290/.373/.460 batting line over his past 1180 MLB plate appearances. That, paired with high-quality left-field defense and a capability to handle center field, has made him worth roughly nine wins above replacement since Opening Day 2016.

Ozuna, meanwhile, belted a career-best 37 homers in 2017 and slashed .312/.376/.548 along the way. Over his past two seasons, he’s slashed .290/.350/.503 with 60 homers. Questions about his glove in center field caused the Marlins to flip him with Yelich this season, and Ozuna responded with well-above-average defense in left field (+11 DRS, +3.4 UZR).

[Related: Oakland Athletics payroll outlook and depth chart]

Ozuna and Yelich are just two of many possibilities for the A’s to pursue this winter. The Cardinals have a noted glut of outfielders and are widely expected to shop Randal Grichuk and/or Stephen Piscotty. One would imagine that the White Sox would be open to dealing Avisail Garcia, though like Ozuna, he’s controlled only for another two seasons. Across town in Chicago, the Cubs have a glut of young position players, with switch-hitting Ian Happ an oft-rumored trade possibility. Speculating further, the Reds could be open to offers on Adam Duvall. Oakland doesn’t have any intention to trade from its big league roster, Slusser notes, with the possible exception of first baseman/DH Ryon Healy. (Trading Healy, she points out, would allow the A’s to move Khris Davis to DH.)

The A’s will have no shortage of options as they explore their corner needs this summer, and though payroll is always a concern in Oakland, their clean payroll slate makes it plausible for them to take on some dollars in 2018 and beyond. Oakland has just $18MM in guaranteed money on the 2018 books — $6MM to each of Lowrie, Santiago Casilla and Matt Joyce — plus another roughly $34MM in projected arbitration salary. Beyond the 2018 season, Oakland doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the ledger, putting the A’s in position to take on a player already on a multi-year deal or one who is projected to begin earning substantial salaries via arbitration.

Nationals To Name Chip Hale Bench Coach

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The Nationals will name current Athletics third base coach and former Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale their new bench coach, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll serve as the right-hand man to rookie skipper Dave Martinez, who was recently signed to a three-year deal as the new manager in Washington, D.C.

Hale, 52, spent two seasons as the Diamondbacks’ manager back in 2015-16 before being replaced with Torey Lovullo by Arizona’s new front-office regime. In addition to his time skippering the D-backs, he’s had two stints on Oakland’s coaching staff and also served on the Mets’ Major League staff as well. Since concluding a seven-year playing career that spanned 1989-97 with the Twins and Dodgers, Hale has managed in the minors and spent eight years as an MLB-level coach (in addition to his two years as a manager). Suffice it to say, he’ll bring plenty of experience to a new-look Nationals coaching staff in 2018.

It’s been a busy offseason for Hale, who was also reportedly among the candidates to become the new manager of the Phillies and the Mets before those posts went to Gabe Kapler and Mickey Callaway, respectively. The move for Hale now leaves the A’s with a new vacancy on their staff that they’ll need to fill in the coming weeks.

Red Sox Prospect Daniel Flores Passes Away Due To Cancer

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In heartbreaking news, the Red Sox announced on Wednesday that top prospect Daniel Flores has passed away due to complications stemming from treatment for cancer. Flores was just 17 years of age.

“Everyone at the Red Sox was shocked to hear of Daniel’s tragic passing,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in a statement. “To see the life of young man with so much promise cut short is extremely saddening for all of us. On behalf of the Red Sox organization, I would like to extend our deepest sympathies and condolences to Daniel’s family.”

Red Sox senior vice president and assistant GM Eddie Romero, who has overseen the team’s international scouting department since 2012, also weighed in:

“Every member of our organization who got to know Daniel absolutely loved him. He was energetic, hard-working, and genuinely selfless, always with a smile on his face. He cared for his teammates and was a natural leader. I’m at a loss for words today. Daniel was an impressive young man with limitless potential, and his life was cut far too short. My condolences go out to Daniel’s mother and sister. Though with us for a short time, Daniel will always be a part of the Red Sox family.”

Boston inked the highly regarded Flores just this summer, signing him to a $3.1MM bonus out of his native Venezuela. He was touted as one of the most promising young talents on the 2017-18 international amateur market and had ranked as the team’s No. 5 prospect over at MLB.com, which also ranked Flores among the 10 best catching prospects in all of baseball.

On-field abilities aside, the sudden and unexpected loss of a young man with such a bright future ahead of him will leave the industry with heavy hearts. MLBTR extends its heartfelt condolences to the family and friends of Flores, as well as his teammates and the entire Red Sox organization.

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter.  Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis.  The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn.  Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient.  If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round.  For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B.  MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians.  However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation.  The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round.  If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians.  Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency.  If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round.  If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies.  Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76.  The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

Red Sox Name Dana LaVangie Pitching Coach

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The Red Sox have announced that Dana LeVangie will become the team’s new pitching coach. Also joining the staff is Ramon Vazquez.

LeVangie previously served as the bullpen coach in Boston. He’ll carry some institutional continuity with him as the team undergoes a transition to new manager Alex Cora. LeVangie took quite an interesting path to his new position. A former minor-league catcher, he functioned as the Sox’ bullpen catcher for a long stretch before moving to a scouting role and eventually becoming the ’pen coach.

Vazquez, meanwhile, will “serve as a liaison between the major league club’s advance scouting and statistical analysis efforts, for the purpose of presenting information to players and coaches,” according to the club’s announcement. The former big league infielder served on the Padres’ coaching staff last year and previously worked with the Astros.

Notably, too, the Sox announced that Steve Langone will become the organization’s manager of advanced scouting. The former advance scout will begin traveling with the club. In conjunction with Vazquez, it seems as if the organization will be institutionalizing the flow of analytical information between the front office and uniformed personnel.

Latest On Shohei Otani

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2:23pm: There’s a “tentative understanding” in place simply to extend the prior posting regime for another year, Sherman reports. The MLBPA has yet to weigh in on the subject, though, and there’s still not a final deal in place.

1:31pm: In the wake of Shohei Otani’s decision to hire a MLBPA-certified player representative, it seems that there’ll be a renewed push to figure out a way to resolve the impasse that has threatened to derail his planned move to the majors. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s a sense that the move will help facilitate an agreement that all involved will approve.

Indeed, Otani’s reps at CAA are scheduled to “meet soon” with the player’s association to attempt to get on the same page in an effort to sort things out, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. That’s just the first step here, of course, as Otani and the MLBPA will still need to engage with Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball — the two entities that are primarily negotiating a new system governing inter-league player transfers.

The difficulties here are tied to two factors: first, MLB’s rules capping international bonuses on certain younger international free agents; and second, the expiration of the prior posting system. There was a time when Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, might have auctioned Otani’s negotiating rights for something approaching or even exceeding nine figures while Otani might have commanded a guarantee of as much or more. Under the just-expired transfer system, the Fighters would at least have stood to receive the maximum allowable $20MM fee. But that’s no longer how things work.

The transfer rules currently under contemplation would do away with the (up-to) $20MM flat-fee approach in favor of one that would allow the NPB team to earn a percentage of the bonus the posted player negotiates. If Otani was free to seek his market value, that wouldn’t likely pose a problem. But his earnings are now severely limited; while he is evidently at peace with that, his would-be former team is obviously not enamored of the possibility of losing its best player for what would be relative peanuts.

Under MLB’s current international rules, MLB clubs can’t go past their international spending pools (as supplemented via trade) to sign Otani. Those are even more limited than might be realized, though, due to teams’ preexisting commitments with young international players. (This was already known, of course, though the details remained fuzzy.)

According to a report from the Associated Press, only six teams even have enough uncommitted pool space to offer Otani seven figures. The Rangers ($3.535MM), Yankees ($3.25MM), and Twins ($3.245MM) easily lead the way, with the Pirates ($2.2MM+), Marlins ($1.74MM), and Mariners ($1.57MM+) also have some money to spend — or, perhaps, to trade to a would-be Otani suitor. For someone who is expected to be an immediate and significant contributor at the major-league level, that’s a pittance no matter the precise amount. Of course, he’ll also have a chance to make significant income off the field and through a future extension or trip through arbitration.

Reds To Sign Kevin Quackenbush

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The Reds have struck a minor-league deal with righty Kevin Quackenbush, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). He will receive an invitation to major-league Spring Training, per C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link).

Quackenbush had been with the Padres organization ever since he was selected in the eighth round of the 2011 draft. The reliever posted compelling peripherals in his first two seasons in the majors, but has trended in the wrong direction more recently. If he can get back on track, he ought to have a shot at earning a job in a Reds bullpen that has quite a few potential vacancies.

In 2017, Quackenbush struggled with free passes for the first time as a big leaguer, allowing 5.5 per nine (against 7.9 K/9) while stumbling to a 7.86 ERA over his 26 1/3 innings. Things were somewhat better at Triple-A, where he ran a 3.90 ERA in 27 2/3 frames, but he still didn’t produce like the pitcher who previously routinely carried double-digit K/9 rates in the minors.

Rays To Sign Vidal Nuno

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The Rays have agreed to a minors pact with southpaw Vidal Nuno, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (via Twitter). Nuno took to the open market after having been outrighted by the Orioles in late August.

Tampa Bay could allow the 30-year-old Nuno a chance to compete for a roster spot in Spring Training. He has seen time in each of the past five MLB seasons, working both as a starter and a reliever.

Most recently, Nuno struggled to a 10.43 ERA in a dozen outings for the O’s. But he was much better at Triple-A, posting a 4.05 ERA over 26 2/3 frames with 10.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. And Nuno was a useful performer at the MLB level in 2016 with the Mariners, running up 58 2/3 innings of 3.53 ERA pitching with 7.8 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, though the results came despite a worrying .289/.324/.487 batting line for opposing hitters.

Nuno represents a useful depth option given his swingman capabilities. At this point, though, it seems most likely that he’d function as a lefty specialist. He has long been much stingier against left-handed hitters, who carry only a .237/.301/.382 overall slash against him in the majors.

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