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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

A much-anticipated offseason started off with unexpected front office turnover and ended up focusing squarely on the future.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Braves 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

Whatever the Braves’ plans may have been heading into the offseason, they were jolted with the sudden and stunning downfall of former GM John Coppolella and eventual move of president of baseball operations John Hart out of his role atop the baseball hierarchy.

The former regime was toppled by a scandal arising out of the organization’s international signing practices. In addition to the front-office upheaval, the violations of MLB rules cost the organization its rights to several notable previously signed prospects and left it facing reduced international spending capabilities for several seasons as well as the loss of a third-round pick in the upcoming draft.

After dabbling in a move for former executive Dayton Moore, who instead remained with the Royals, the Atlanta organization struck a deal to bring in former Blue Jays GM and recent Dodgers exec Alex Anthopoulos. He’s now the top baseball decisionmaker in the Braves hierarchy.

Whether that shake-up changed the Braves’ plans for the 2017-18 winter will never really be known. But the organization certainly did not end up acting as many anticipated. Having opened Sun Trust Park last season and with an abundance of young talent reaching the majors, many anticipated that the organization would announce the beginning of the end of its rebuilding period by pursuing some significant additions via trade and/or free agency.

As it turned out, the Braves’ arguable on-field needs — including potential improvements at third base, the corner outfield, and the bullpen, along with veteran rotation help — were never really addressed, at least not in the manner of an organization that’s readying for contention. While the division-rival Phillies made two significant splashes and spent some real cash on their bullpen, the Braves pursued a course designed to clear future payroll capacity and support the ongoing development of internal talent.

The biggest need identified by Anthopoulos was not, say, finding a high-quality regular at the hot corner. Rather, it was figuring a way to move Matt Kemp and his significant remaining contractual obligations in an advantageous manner. After moving the remaining dollars owed to reliever Jim Johnson, Anthopoulos arrived at a fascinating money-shifting swap involving Kemp with none other than the organization he had just worked for. In a deal full of notable veteran names, the Braves shipped Kemp to the Dodgers in exchange for high-priced veterans Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Adrian Gonzalez — along with $4.5MM to make the deal entirely cash-neutral. Atlanta also landed versatile bench candidate Charlie Culberson.

The roster-clearing benefits for the Atlanta organization were clear. Moving Kemp out of the picture left the club free to try some other options in left field. The Braves claimed Preston Tucker and later signed Ezequiel Carrera; those two left-handed hitters could pair with the righty swinging Lane Adams. Of course, the real occupant of left is not going to open the 2018 campaign in the majors. All-world prospect Ronald Acuna ran roughshod over the Grapefruit League but will not make his MLB debut until later in the coming season. While Anthopoulos has insisted the decision was based purely on Acuna’s development, and he did race through the minors last year, there’s also little doubt that service-time considerations also played a role.

Of course, that could have been accomplished simply by cutting Kemp loose. Picking up the veteran trio was of greater utility, however, even with Gonzalez being cut loose. Kazmir and especially McCarthy will represent 2018 rotation candidates for the Braves, thus obviating the need to spend more on veteran pitching to build out the rotation. Having already declined an option over knuckler R.A. Dickey, the Braves needed some innings to avoid putting too much pressure on their young arms.

Additionally, the swap shifted the payroll hit from Kemp forward. The Dodgers preferred to consolidate the money they owed to free them from the luxury tax this year. For the Braves, though, the move allowed the team to spend down its obligations now while clearing the books for 2019. Now, only Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, and Ender Inciarte are promised money for the future.

It seems, though, that the financial shift also tamped down the likelihood of any significant outlays for the 2018 season, as the immediate payroll ballooned. That left the Braves seeking low-commitment additions throughout the winter. In addition to picking up Tucker and Carrera in the outfield, Anthopoulos added a variety of infielders, including Culberson, Danny Santana, Christian Colon, and Ryan Schimpf. Having already extended Kurt Suzuki to reunite with Tyler Flowers behind the dish, the club added Chris Stewart on a non-guaranteed MLB deal and Rob Brantly on a minors pact to round out the catching depth. After losing Luiz Gohara to injury, the club picked up Anibal Sanchez on a minors pact to deepen the rotation mix. And Anthopoulos added a variety of low-risk relievers, including Chase Whitley, Shane Carle, Josh Ravin, and Tommy John patient Grant Dayton. None of those players cost the Braves more than a de minimus amount of cash, 40-man spot, and/or a non-roster invitation.

Questions Remaining

The club’s approach hardly seems to set the stage for a 2018 postseason berth, though a run can never be ruled out. There is, after all, quite a lot of intriguing talent spread across the Braves’ MLB roster and top minor-league affiliates. But there are also loads of questions, the answers to which will help chart the future for the organization.

We already touched upon the outfield situation. Ender Inciarte is firmly ensconced in center, while Nick Markakis will presumably handle the bulk of the time in right during the final season of his contract. That leaves left field open to examination as the season progresses. Unless Acuna is injured or unexpectedly stumbles at Gwinnett, odds are the pressure will steadily mount for him to be handed the reins — particularly if the Braves get off to a decent start and/or the platoon players don’t pan out.

The right side of the infield is set with star first baseman Freddie Freeman and young second bagger Ozzie Albies, who has earned a long leash after a strong, 57-game debut showing last year. Likewise, the catching situation is largely settled to open the season, as the Flowers/Suzuki pairing will handle the duties.

There’s more potential intrigue, though, in the remaining two spots on the dirt. Dansby Swanson’s sophomore swoon tamped down excitement about his future, though there’s still good reason to believe he’ll be a quality regular and ample cause for the Braves to exercise patience. Third base is largely wide open. It seems the organization will give Johan Camargo a shot at proving he’s no flash in the pan, though he’s expected to open the year on the DL. Schimpf perhaps could have received a shot but turned in a rather unbelievable 0-for-30 performance this spring. Rio Ruiz has not exactly seized his limited opportunities to date but has perhaps shown enough at Triple-A to warrant a chance. Otherwise, the club would likely be left with a mix of Culberson and Santana to hold down the fort. Well-regarded prospect Austin Riley could force his way into the picture if he keeps mashing; no doubt the hope is he’ll earn the job in the long run. It’s perhaps still possible that the Braves could end up finding another option from outside the organization over the next few weeks.

The pitching staff, meanwhile, is chock full of wild cards. The top four members of the rotation are clear, but each comes with as much uncertainty as talent. Julio Teheran is looking to bounce back from a mediocre 2017 season, Mike Foltynewicz will try to turn the corner, McCarthy has made just 25 starts over the past two seasons, and power lefty Sean Newcomb needs to show that he can limit the free passes. A rotation slot had been intended for youngster Luiz Gohara, who impressed at all levels (including a five-start MLB debut) last year. But he suffered a few injuries in camp and now looks to be ticketed for a reasonably lengthy layoff, leaving the door open behind him. While Atlanta may not need a fifth starter to open the year, the club will eventually need to fill out the starting staff. Kazmir and Sanchez are the notable names here, with both looking to rebound from unproductive recent seasons. Otherwise, Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, or Lucas Sims could again be given opportunities despite failing to capitalize on their prior chances.

No matter how that situation sorts itself out, the Braves will be weighing all season long whether and when to make some further promotions. Touted young hurlers such as Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Kyle Wright are expected to knock on the door in the near term. With another wave of talent coming up behind them, the front office surely won’t hesitate to take a look at those arms against the game’s best hitters when they’re deemed ready. After all, it could soon be necessary to make some tough calls on which pitchers to keep and which to dangle in trades.

If Anthopoulos focused anywhere in particular this winter, it seems to have been the bullpen, where the club added new arms and outrighted Mauricio Cabrera and Luke Jackson. There are loads of options stacked up for trials and patches as the situation dictates. Arodys Vizcaino will be looking for some elusive consistency after a strong 2017 effort, with Jose Ramirez and lefty A.J. Minter primed to join him at the back of the pen. Veterans Peter Moylan and Sam Freeman figure to provide some stability. Dan Winkler, whose Rule 5 status is still not fully determined, will hope to remain healthy and effective.

That likely leaves two spots still open to some debate, with Whitley, Ravin, Carle, Wisler, and Blair perhaps the chief candidates to open the season on the active roster now that Rule 5er Anyelo Gomez has been returned. Lefty Rex Brothers has struggled this spring after agreeing to a non-guaranteed arb deal. Reclamation projects Jesse Biddle and Jacob Lindgren could represent interesting southpaw candidates at some point but aren’t immediate options (with the former already having been optioned and the latter dealing with elbow issues). Righties Jason Hursh and Akeel Morris won’t make the active roster but are still on the 40-man, as are young southpaws Adam McCreery and Ricardo Sanchez. Needless to say, it’s likely there’ll be quite a lot of turnover in the relief unit as the season goes on. With 26 pitchers on the 40-man roster at present, it’s all but certain that a few hurlers will end up being traded or placed on outright waivers at some point.

Overview

Outside of those roster spots that were locked down entering the winter, the strategy was obviously to build out depth, seek some diamonds in the rough, and create competition. That process is likely to carry on throughout the season as needs arise and players sink or swim. The Braves will surely prioritize protecting their future talent pool over maximizing immediate MLB performance, but plenty of difficult decisions will begin to be made as camp draws to a close. While the organization doesn’t really have loads of veterans that figure to profile as mid-season trade candidates, it’s certainly possible that deals will be considered at some point for Teheran, McCarthy, Markakis, and certain veteran relievers or bench pieces. Expectations are tempered for the coming season, but fans and the front office alike will surely be watching closely at how things are shaping up for 2019 and beyond.

How would you grade the organization’s offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Indians, Naquin, Refsnyder, Reds, Miley, Cabrera

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Tyler Naquin and Rob Refsnyder are still competing for a potential spot on the Indians’ opening day roster, and Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets that manager Terry Francona has explained some details to them. Francona reportedly told the two players that the spot won’t simply go to the guy who gets the most hits over the last week, and that roster construction could be the biggest factor. For instance, if Brandon Guyer and/or Michael Brantley aren’t ready in time for opening day, Naquin and Refsnyder would stand a better chance to make the club out of camp. Whether the club chooses to carry seven or eight relievers will also affect their fates. It’s worth noting that Tyler Naquin has multiple options remaining, while Rob Refsnyder is an out-of-options player.

More out of the midwest…

  • In a piece for The Athletic, Doug Gray details ten Reds prospects to keep an eye on for the coming season. The players in the article aren’t necessarily top prospects, but rather a group of under-the-radar players who Gray describes as “unheralded”. The list includes right-handers Nick Hanson and Ryan Hendrix, $10MM shortstop Jose Garcia, and Brandon Phillips’ cousin Montrell Marshall. Many of these players have significant upside and are worth the exploration by any Reds fan, or indeed any avid baseball follower.
  • Wade Miley’s opt-out date has been pushed back, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports on Twitter. The southpaw seemed likely to make the Brewers’ rotation before suffering a torn groin that’s expected to keep him out two to four weeks. Miley could have opted out of his contract tomorrow after being informed that he wouldn’t make the opening day roster, but GM David Stearns apparently worked out a deal with his agent. Miley’s opt-out date has been extended until the point at which he’s able to start pitching again.
  • Two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera is stuck in “baseball purgatory”, says Scott Miller in an opinion piece for Bleacher Report. Miller describes Cabrera as “an island unto himself”, on a rebuilding Tigers team that will not likely be able to deal him and the $192MM remaining on his contract, particularly coming off the worst season of his career wherein he was plagued by back issues. For his part, Cabrera doesn’t seem to be focused on that aspect of his situation. “I’m here to play,” he says. “I’m not here to give my opinion of what’s going to happen. I’m here to do my job, to help win games and to help the process.” 

Steven Souza Jr. Out “A Couple Of Weeks” With Pectoral Strain

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Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. has a right pec strain and will open the season on the disabled list, according to manager Torey Lovullo (via Nick Pecoro of AZ Central Sports). Lovullo expects Souza to be out of the lineup for “a couple of weeks, at least.” The soon-to-be 29-year-old Souza left Wednesday’s game after diving for a baseball in the outfield.

Needless to say, this is certainly isn’t what the Diamondbacks had planned for when they acquired Souza in a three-team trade with the Yankees and Rays earlier in the winter. Arizona gave up left-hander Anthony Banda and two players to be named later in order to acquire the free-swinging slugger, who’s coming off his best season as a major-leaguer. Though he managed just a .239 batting average last season (in part due to a 29% strikeout rate), he got on base at a .351 clip and crushed 30 homers while contributing 16 stolen bases for Tampa Bay.

It’s unclear exactly how long the club expects Souza to be out. Lovullo says that the club will “give the injury time to define itself”, which is of course incredibly vague. Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets that Lovullo “slipped in” mid-May to a later answer about the outfielder’s timeline. Regardless, it seems almost like good news for Souza, as it was initially thought that he may have suffered a shoulder injury. His absence from the opening day roster will open up an opportunity for more playing time for both Yasmany Tomas and Jarrod Dyson at the start of the season.

Souza was drafted and developed by the Nationals, who picked him in the third round of the 2007 draft, then later traded him to the Padres in exchange for Joe Ross and a player-to-be-named-later that ended up being Trea Turner. The righty-hitting outfielder has played in parts of four major league seasons, slashing .236/.325/.426 for his career to go along with 65 dingers and 35 steals.

Twins Notes: Aybar, Busenitz, Duffey, Kinley, Hughes, Heisey

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Veteran shortstop Erick Aybar has been informed he will not make the Twins roster, tweets Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Aybar seemed to have at least an outside shot of making the club out of camp in light of Jorge Polanco’s 80-game PED suspension, but after managing just a .621 OPS in 35 spring training at-bats, Minnesota couldn’t find room for him. Aybar signed with the Twins late in February on a minor league deal; He can choose to opt out of it on Friday. We’re now three years removed from Aybar’s last season playing above league average; since a 4.2 fWAR campaign in which he hit .278/.321/.379 while playing sterling defense at shortstop for the Angels, Aybar has severely declined. Over the past three seasons, his glovework has been average at best, and he sports a wRC+ of just 73.

Other Twins-related items…

  • There are other changes afoot in Minnesota, too, as Berardino reports. Righties Alan Busenitz and Tyler Duffey were each shipped out of camp on optional assignment. Both struggled this spring, as Berardino notes, while other developments — particularly, the desire to carry Rule 5 pick Tyler Kinley and oft-injured starter Phil Hughes in the pen — have tightened things on the MLB roster. As per the conditions of the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins must keep Kinley on the major league roster for an entire season or else offer him back to the Marlins. The 27-year-old righty has allowed five earned runs while striking out eleven hitters in ten spring training innings.
  • Chris Heisey has been granted his release by the Twins, tweets Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. The 33-year-old outfielder played in 38 games last season for the Nationals (79 plate appearances), and hit a dismal .162/.216/.270. In the early stages of his career, Heisey played in a reserve outfielder role for the Reds; he’s since played for the Dodgers in addition to the aforementioned Nats. He owns just a .444 OPS this spring, so it would be tough to imagine him latching onto an opening day roster spot with an MLB club.

Paul Blackburn Has Right Forearm Strain

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6:00pm: Blackburn will be shut down for ten days, says manager Bob Melvin (h/t Jane Lee of MLB.com).

4:18pm: The Athletics rotation has taken another blow, this time involving righty Paul Blackburn. He is dealing with a right forearm strain, as Jane Lee writes in a piece for MLB.com. It now seems all but certain that Blackburn will not be ready to join the staff to open the year. With the rotation already missing Jharel Cotton and recent signee Trevor Cahill not quite ready to go, that leaves Oakland with much less depth to begin the season than had been anticipated. Lee suggests that “by default”, the A’s early-season rotation is now set to consist of Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs and Daniel Gossett.

The 24-year-old Blackburn made ten starts last season in his first taste of major-league action. While the righty pitched to a nice 3.22 ERA and a 56.3% ground ball rate, his 4.76 xFIP and shockingly low 3.38 K/9 left some question marks surrounding his capability to repeat that level of run-prevention.

Blackburn was a supplemental first round pick of the Cubs back during the 2012 draft. He came to the Athletics organization by way of a 2016 trade that sent Danny Valencia to the Mariners. Blackburn made his major-league debut on July 1st, 2017, when the righty allowed zero earned runs in six innings against the Braves.

Reds Claim Kennys Vargas

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The Reds have claimed first baseman/DH Kennys Vargas off waivers from the Twins, per an announcement from the Minnesota organization. He had been designated for assignment recently.

It’s a bit difficult to see how Vargas will fit into the Cincinnati organization’s plans at first glance. He’s out of options and limited on a National League roster to pinch-hitting or playing first base, where Joey Votto is an everyday presence.

Unless there’s some unknown issue that would warrant the move, it could be that the Reds are simply utilizing their waiver position to grab a player they like but won’t carry on their active roster. Vargas could be traded to a team further down the priority line — just four teams are higher than the Reds at present — or put back on waivers in hopes that he’ll clear and can be stashed at Triple-A.

All indications have been that the Twins anticipated another organization claiming Vargas, despite the fact that a trade could not be sorted out. It seems there’s some optimism around the league for the 27-year-old switch-hitter.

Though Vargas has not yet shown that he can be a consistent on-base threat at the game’s highest level, with a .311 OBP in 859 career plate appearances, though he has drawn tons of walks in the upper minors. Vargas isn’t exactly a prodigious home run hitter but has shown good power output both at Triple-A and in the majors (.185 ISO) and perhaps has some more in the tank if he can tap into his raw strength.

*The initial version of this post incorrectly suggested that American League teams all passed on a chance to claim Vargas. Outright waiver priority is determined by winning percentage, lowest first, without reference to league except to break a tie in recor.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Cubs landed the biggest prize of the 2017-18 free agent class, and stayed entirely within free agency for pitching staff upgrades.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Cubs 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Cubs Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

After the Dodgers denied the Cubs’ bid to return to the World Series, a coaching staff shake-up was the first order of business for Chicago.  Longtime pitching coach Chris Bosio was the first casualty, with hitting coach John Mallee being fired shortly thereafter.  Jim Hickey, with his history of serving as Joe Maddon’s pitching coach with the Rays, replaced Bosio.  Chili Davis takes over for Mallee.  The Cubs also lost Dave Martinez, who was hired to serve as the Nationals’ manager.

The Cubs spent much of November and early December courting Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.  While they were one of seven finalists, the Cubs were a long shot as a National League club located in the Midwest.  Once Ohtani chose the Angels, focus turned to the Cubs’ more likely free agent pursuits, which centered entirely on pitching.  Starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey became free agents after making 60 starts for the 2017 club, and the Cubs sought to replace them from outside of the organization.  After coming up short on a very different pitcher out of Japan, returning expat Miles Mikolas, the Cubs signed former Rockie Tyler Chatwood to a surprisingly large contract for a pitcher coming off a 4.69 ERA.  Cubs president Theo Epstein later explained to Jon Greenberg of The Athletic in late January, “He was really popular. A lot of teams saw beyond his basic performance stats and looked deeper into his ability. He was at the right price point and had a ton of suitors, so that drove the price up.”  Now that he’s out of Colorado, Chatwood has several things going for him: his age (28), his ability to induce groundballs, and a fastball approaching 95 miles per hour.  Though it was surprising to see Chatwood land at nearly $13MM a year, he’s a solid upside choice to replace Lackey.

Throughout the offseason, the Cubs declined to close the door on former ace Arrieta, though they didn’t make much effort to bring him back, either.  Though the Joe Maddon/Jim Hickey connection to free agent Alex Cobb led many to predict a match with the Cubs, the team instead aimed higher for their other rotation addition with a run at Yu Darvish.  At the same time, the Cubs quietly made a different free agent signing with a Maddon/Hickey connection, lefty Drew Smyly.  Smyly had undergone Tommy John surgery in June of 2017, and was signed with an eye toward the 2019 rotation.  If Smyly returns to full health and ability for 2019, the Cubs will have a good kind of problem on their hands in that they’ll have six established starting pitchers under control for that season.

According to Epstein, it was around the December Winter Meetings that the Cubs realized “we might be in a position to end up at least being a contender for Darvish with a contract that we could tolerate,” reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Cubs brass met with Darvish in Texas, and it seemed possible the two sides could hammer out a megadeal before the end of the year.  Instead, the Cubs’ December dealings, aside from Smyly, were the bullpen additions of Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek.  Morrow, 33, will serve as the Cubs’ closer.  While his contract is reasonable, the risk comes in the Cubs’ reliance upon a pitcher with Morrow’s lengthy injury history and heavy 2017 postseason workload.  Given the volatility of relievers, the contract itself is no riskier than those given to Wade Davis, Mike Minor, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, and others.

January came and went without a Darvish deal, part of one of the strangest offseasons in this website’s history.  Instead, the Cubs spent that month coming to terms with star third baseman Kris Bryant on a record arbitration deal, and also completing their bullpen additions by bringing lefty Brian Duensing back on a mild discount.  The Cubs’ bullpen holdovers are Duensing, Carl Edwards Jr., Mike Montgomery, and Pedro Strop.  Replacing Wade Davis, Hector Rondon, Justin Grimm, and Koji Uehara are Morrow, Cishek, a full season of Justin Wilson, and perhaps Eddie Butler and a less-established arm.  It feels like the Cubs could have added one more late-inning piece to the pen.

The Cubs saved their biggest splash for February, when they agreed to a six-year, $126MM deal with Darvish.  The Dodgers, Twins, and Brewers were among the teams the Cubs beat out for the righty.  Darvish’s $21MM average annual value was surprisingly low.  We had expected an AAV in the $25-27MM range, given previous contracts signed by David Price, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and the Cubs’ own Jon Lester.  Like other big market teams, the Cubs are intent on staying below the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold, and the sixth year given to Darvish helped accomplish that.  From Darvish’s point of view, the opt-out after 2019 has significant value: about $20MM, estimates MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  Darvish will be 33 when the clause comes due, and he’ll have to decide whether he can top four years and $81MM on the 2019-20 free agent market.

Questions Remaining

The Cubs appear to have $13MM or less for trade deadline acquisitions.  Regarding his trade deadline payroll flexibility, Epstein said, “We do have some, not a ton.”  Epstein admitted, “One of our goals was to put the team together this year in a way that would maybe allow us to reset under the CBT threshold.” This is not actually a reset, since the Cubs were not over the CBT threshold in 2017.  Regardless, it’s possible the luxury tax threshold stopped the Cubs from assembling a super bullpen despite their relief pitching problems in the playoffs.  Aside from the health of Morrow, much depends on southpaw Justin Wilson, who flopped after joining the Cubs last year at the trade deadline.  It’s difficult to say exactly why the Cubs didn’t acquire additional relievers – it may be that they’re completely satisfied with their bullpen as it stands, or don’t mind waiting until July to re-evaluate.  But since the CBT threshold may have been a factor in their bullpen budgeting, let’s explore it further.

The Cubs may be willing to exceed next year’s $206MM CBT threshold, but aim to be considered a “first-time CBT payor.”  Second-time payors pay 30% on the overage, while first-time payors pay 20%.  Avoiding the CBT threshold in 2018 also affects what the Cubs would have to surrender next year upon signing a qualified free agent.  They’d give up their second-highest draft pick regardless, but avoiding the threshold allows them to keep their fifth-highest pick and also have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K instead of $1MM.  I have to ask of the Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers: why does this difference in penalties matter so much?

Say the Cubs had gone all out and also signed Addison Reed and Mike Minor this winter, adding $17.7MM to the 2018 payroll.  That would put the team’s 2018 payroll at $202MM for luxury tax purposes.  Say they spend another $12MM on midseason acquisitions and end at $214MM for 2018.  That means they’d pay a tax of…$3.4MM.  Basically a rounding error for this franchise.  Paying the tax for a potential 2018 overage is irrelevant at this spending level.

Therefore, this has to be all about being a first-time payor in 2019 rather than a second-time payor.  If you’ll indulge me, let’s play that out for a team with a massive $275MM payroll in 2019.  On a $275MM payroll, a first-time CBT payor is penalized $28.525MM, while a second-time payor is penalized $36.15MM.  If a team is conceding being a first-time payor in 2019 (as the Cubs seem to be), being a second-time payor only results in less than $8MM in additional tax, even at a very high payroll level.  Carrying that hypothetical payroll level forward for yet another season would result in a larger hit, but it would still be less than $14MM, and from that point forward the tax rate would be the same for an organization that stayed over the luxury line.  Ah, but what about the draft pick penalty for exceeding the 2019 second surcharge threshold of $246MM?  That’ll knock your 2020 draft pick back a full ten spots.  Meaning, a good team has to pick at #37 instead of #27, something like that.  Compared to the previous CBA, where draft picks as high as 11th overall were surrendered for signing certain free agents, dropping ten spots doesn’t seem that bad.

Large market teams are treating the CBT thresholds as lines they absolutely cannot cross. Or at least that they cannot cross for consecutive years.  Rather than take that at face value, we need to ask whether the CBT thresholds are being used as a convenient excuse to spend less. The tax can be hefty, no doubt, and it is understandable that organizations already facing max penalties — particularly those that often spend well over the threshold — would look for an opportunity to reset. But the timing of entering CBT payor status does not appear to be a particularly compelling limitation on spending in and of itself.

My payroll tangent aside, the Cubs also have the question of a possible position player logjam.  On his decision not to trade anyone, Epstein told Greenberg, “We explored a lot of a different possibilities, but in the end there just wasn’t a deal available that would give us a fair return back. We didn’t want to take less talent or control just to add a pitching prospect. Balancing the roster wasn’t that fundamental to make a bad deal happen.”  The Cubs can’t be faulted for declining to sell low on Kyle Schwarber, who dedicated himself to an offseason conditioning program in the meantime.  If all of the Cubs’ many outfield and second base candidates stay healthy at once, which is unlikely, Maddon may need to make the tough decision to bench his two underperforming veterans, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. Even if that comes to pass, it’s likely preferable to taking less than fair value for a controllable young player or finding the depth lacking if is tested.

Overview

The Cubs were able to use an opt-out clause for Darvish to lower the AAV on his contract, helping the team stay below the competitive balance tax threshold.  They were able to accomplish this because other big market teams had even less space under that threshold, and small market teams couldn’t match the Cubs’ bid.  They also brought in an intriguing and relatively young fifth starter in Chatwood, resulting in what looks to be the best starting rotation of the Epstein regime.  While fresh faces in the bullpen were a given, the volatility of relief pitching makes it unclear whether the Cubs did enough in that area.  Otherwise, the team remains stacked with high quality position players.  The Cubs will likely tangle with the Nationals and Dodgers for the NL pennant once again.

How would you grade the efforts of Epstein and company? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cardinals Release Jason Motte; Reunion Still Possible

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The Cardinals have released veteran righty Jason Motte but remain open to bringing him back into the organization, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. If he is unable to find a MLB opportunity elsewhere, Motte is expected to return on a new deal.

It seems the hope, if not the expectation, is for Motte to ink a new minors pact that will allow him to work at the Cards’ top affiliate to open the season. The 35-year-old, once the team’s closer, fell short in his bid to crack the Opening Day roster but showed enough to earn a place on the depth chart. First, though, he’ll see if there’s interest from another team.

Motte managed to carry a 3.54 ERA in 40 2/3 MLB frames last year in spite of an uninspiring mix of 6.0 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9. He surely benefited from a .200 batting average on balls in play, as Statcast suggested a .337 xwOBA that lands significantly higher than the .305 wOBA mark that actually resulted.

That said, Motte did continue to work near 94 mph with his average heater and maintained a 7.6% swinging-strike rate that — while well below league average and his own peak rates — fell in line with his output in recent seasons. This spring, Motte surrendered six earned runs on 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings, but did  record six strikeouts.

Phillies Release Ryan Flaherty

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The Phillies have released infielder Ryan Flaherty, per a club announcement. He had triggered an opt-out provision that required the team to add him to the MLB roster or set him loose.

Philadelphia had largely signaled its intentions already by adding veteran Pedro Florimon to the 40-man. He’ll likely serve as the team’s general utility option, a role that was up for grabs in camp this spring.

A reunion with the Orioles has already been suggested for Flaherty, who has a long history with the organization. The 31-year-old owns only a .215/.284/.355 lifetime batting line in the majors but is regarded as a valuable presence around the diamond. He has has also turned in a strong spring, with a .353/.395/.529 slash and just three strikeouts in 38 plate appearances.

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