Rays Sign Supplemental First-Rounder Seth Johnson
The Rays reportedly have a $1,722,500 deal with supplemental first-round selection Seth Johnson. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported the signing on Twitter; MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter) had the dollars.
That amount comes in just shy of the $1,856,700 slot value for the 40th overall pick. The selection used on Johnson was the competitive balance round A choice acquired from the A’s in a three-team swap over the winter. Tampa Bay already agreed to a number with its top pick, Greg Jones.
Entering the draft, Callis and co. graded Johnson the 31st player on the board; Baseball America was even more bullish with a #28 ranking. The right-handed hurler shot up draft boards despite an exceptionally thin track record on the mound.
Other outlets were a bit more skeptical of Johnson, who is said to have shown remarkable natural ability and early progress but remains a bit of a project. ESPN.com’s Keith Law ranked him 37th, noting that the “secondary stuff lags” his heater, while Fangraphs had Johnson well down the board at #59.
Latest On Drew Steckenrider
The Marlins now have at least a general timeline for relief pitcher Drew Steckenrider, who has already missed a big chunk of the season with a flexor strain. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (Twitter links), Steckenrider is expected to be able to return to the MLB mound by early August.
Last we heard, the hard-throwing righty was set to be sidelined indefinitely. While it’s hardly heartening to hear that Steckenrider could miss another two months of action, it seems generally positive that there’s a reasonably anticipated end point to his absence. Better still, it seems he’ll be able to avoid surgical intervention for the flexor injury.
That potential schedule will require steady progress from this point forward. Even in a best-case scenario in which the 28-year-old comes in a bit sooner than anticipated, he won’t have time to build a substantial MLB showing before the trade deadline. That effectively eliminates any trade scenarios, not that there was much chance he’d be dealt this summer anyway.
This time last year, the Marlins had Steckenrider inside the showroom with a big sticker price (alongside Kyle Barraclough and Adam Conley). He had emerged in the prior season, mowing down opposing hitters and sporting a 13.2% swinging-strike rate with a fastball-heavy approach. Unfortunately, Steckenrider’s results took a dip in the second half. He was hit hard by lefties, in particular.
The former eighth-round draft pick tried to switch things up in 2019, doubling his slider usage, but wasn’t able to get the fish to bite. His chase rate dropped to 23.5% and his swinging-strike rate dipped to 9.3%. Steckenrider made it through 14 1/3 innings before the injury, allowing ten earned runs despite a minuscule .094 BABIP-against. The reason? He teed up six long balls.
In the long run, it’ll be interesting to see whether Steckenrider can rediscover a formula that allows him to translate his physical skills into MLB outs. At some point, perhaps as soon as the 2019-20, the Marlins may again have a shot at testing his trade value. First, Steckenrider will need to get back to health.
Mike Hazen On D-Backs’ Deadline Approach
Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen chatted with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link) about his organization’s approach to the coming summer trade period. The entire chat is well worth a full read, but we’ll cover some highlights here.
Hazen says he’s waiting to see how his team performs over the next several weeks before settling on an approach. Some “things need to get ironed out for us to see the team the way it needs to be seen as a true playoff contender,” he says. The club “need[s] to see a little more consistency,” he adds, though it’s unclear whether he’s looking for anything in particular beyond the bottom-line results in the win/loss columns.
Lest there be any confusion, Hazen went on to make clear: “The amount of the resources that we contribute [to improving the 2019 roster] are going to be more of a reflection of where we’re at playing-wise at the time.”
That’s a different tone than we heard recently from Jon Daniels, whose Rangers are in a generally similar situation to the D-Backs. Both clubs are chasing powerhouse division leaders with more realistic, but hardly clearcut, Wild Card prospects. Daniels indicated that his deadline approach would not waver too substantially based upon the results over the next several weeks, referring instead to the team’s broader strategic plans.
Those teams share another similarity: a glaring need for starting pitching. The Arizona club is without two of its highest-upside arms (Taijuan Walker and Luke Weaver) and just lost another for an unknown duration in Jon Duplantier. If the D-Backs pursue additions, there’s little question where they’d look first. “The pitching is probably the area that would be more of a focus,” says Hazen. “The losses to the rotation have been significant and probably would need to be addressed.”
The Arizona org is already “canvassing, at least watching the market” for hurlers, says Hazen, though there’s “not a lot of activity” just yet. One significant rotation piece did recently go off the board, of course; Hazen allowed that it’s “probably fair” to say Dallas Keuchel was just too expensive. Otherwise, the club is hoping the Jake Lamb and Wilmer Flores will provide an offensive boost, making for “fairly low” interest in offensive additions.
The D-Backs, not unlike the Rangers, could seek to buy some pitching now that could also help the team in the future. That could take the form of higher-grade, younger starters or more established, more expensive hurlers. The Arizona org already looked into Mike Leake, who’d fit into the latter camp, though it’s unclear just how far down the line they went on that concept. Financial limitations will create some obvious constraints. There aren’t many players under contract next year for the Snakes, but the team already has a hefty salary starting point owing to its massive obligations to Zack Greinke ($35MM) and Yasmany Tomas ($17MM).
Pirates Notes: Chisenhall, Cervelli, Kela, Burdi
We checked in on a couple injured Pirates a few hours ago. Here’s the latest on more banged-up Bucs from their director of sports medicine, Todd Tomczyk (courtesy of Adam Berry of MLB.com):
- The Pirates signed outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall to a one-year, $2.75MM deal in the offseason, but he hasn’t played yet and it doesn’t appear he will anytime soon. Chisenhall’s still at home mending from left calf tightness. The 30-year-old opened the season on the injured list because of a finger issue, and not long after he started a rehab assignment April 19, the team shut him down because of the calf problem. The same calf prevented Chisenhall from playing past July 1 last year – his final season with the Indians.
- Catcher Francisco Cervelli, out since May 26 with a concussion, will be reexamined by a neurologist on Thursday. He still hasn’t been cleared for workouts. Cervelli’s season got off to a poor start even before his latest concussion-caused absence, while fellow Pirates backstops Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings have also posted subpar aggregate production. Diaz has hit well over the past month, though.
- While Reliever Keone Kela hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 4, he could start throwing again Thursday or Friday. Kela had gone on a rehab stint toward the end of last month, but the Pirates halted it May 31 after he suffered a setback in his injured right shoulder. A headline-grabbing acquisition for the Pirates last summer, the 26-year-old Kela has struggled to a 4.63 ERA/5.63 FIP with 8.49 K/9, 3.09 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent groundball rate in 11 2/3 innings this season.
- One of Keone’s fellow righty relievers, Nick Burdi, has returned to throwing. However, he’s still dealing with symptoms from the nerve injury that forced him to the IL almost two months ago. Burdi incurred his injury April 22 in his most recent outing. The flamethrowing 26-year-old had begun the season in encouraging fashion prior to that night, when he allowed five earned runs in a third of an inning and saw his ERA go from 4.32 to 9.35. Although an ERA that ugly is hard to ignore, it’s worth noting Burdi has put up a stellar 17:3 K:BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings this season.
Altuve, Springer Among Astros Nearing Rehab Assignments
Injured Astros stars Jose Altuve and George Springer are close to returning to game action. Altuve’s on track to begin a rehab assignment this weekend, according to manager A.J. Hinch, and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports Springer may do the same. Ditto for right-hander Collin McHugh. Meanwhile, catcher Max Stassi will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, per Rome (links: 1, 2).
The 29-year-old Altuve originally went to the IL on May 11 with a left hamstring strain – an injury which is no longer an issue. However, shortly after Altuve embarked on a rehab assignment May 25, the Astros shut him down following a setback in his surgically repaired right leg. The normally durable Altuve has now missed the Astros’ past 30 games, and he didn’t perform up to his usual standards before landing on the IL. Across 164 plate appearances, the six-time All-Star has slashed a still-solid .243/.329/.472 (117 wRC+) with nine home runs – though that pales in comparison to his output from 2014-18 – and has stolen just one base after swiping no fewer than 17 in any season since 2012.
Springer, also 29, put himself in the early season AL MVP conversation before suffering a Grade 2 left hamstring strain May 25. Prior to that injury, Springer hit .308/.389/.643 (172 wRC+) with 17 homers in 216 trips to the plate.
McHugh went to the IL with elbow discomfort May 21, continuing a brutal contract season for the normally effective hurler. After thriving out of the Astros’ bullpen in 2018, the 31-year-old McHugh began this season in their rotation and logged a 6.37 ERA/5.19 FIP in 41 innings, though he did post 9.22 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. The Astros then shifted McHugh back to their bullpen, and he made two appearances in relief before going to the IL.
Perhaps Houston will give McHugh another crack at starting eventually, considering it hasn’t been able to establish a fifth starter behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Brad Peacock. McHugh’s immediate successor, Corbin Martin, was even worse before the team sent him back to Triple-A Round Rock on June 4. The Astros replaced Martin with Framber Valdez, who shut down the Orioles over seven innings in his first start June 8. He’ll take the ball again Saturday against Toronto.
The light-hitting, defensively adept Stassi has been out since May 26 with a left knee injury. The Astros called up prospect Garrett Stubbs to take Stassi’s spot, though starter Robinson Chirinos has gotten almost all of the work.
Even with their myriad injuries, including to franchise shortstop Carlos Correa, the Astros have continued to roll. At 46-23, they boast the majors’ top record. Of course, their already formidable roster will look far more imposing once their reinforcements return. That’s a frightening thought for the rest of the league.
Report: Tigers Willing To Listen To Offers For Matthew Boyd, Others
With the July 31 trade deadline on the way and the Tigers well out of contention, they’re “open to moving virtually” all of their veteran players, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. Morosi names left-hander Matthew Boyd, closer Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos among potential trade pieces for the rebuilding Tigers.
Not only is Boyd the most appealing member of the above trio, but there is little question he’s Detroit’s MVP. After back-to-back seasons of roughly average production, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the majors’ premier starters in 2019. He owns a 3.08 ERA/2.91 FIP with a stunning 11.16 K/9 against 1.59 BB/9 through 14 starts and 84 2/3 innings. Adding to Boyd’s allure, he’s inexpensive right now ($2.6MM) and controllable for a while. Boyd’s in his first of four potential arbitration years.
While it would be difficult for the Tigers to move their fledgling ace, doing so would go a long way toward boosting a mediocre farm system. In a summer trade market that could also include the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, Boyd’s performance and affordable team control would make him the most desirable arm on the block. As you’d expect, though, Morosi notes it would take a Godfather offer for the Tigers to part with Boyd.
Unlike Boyd, Castellanos wouldn’t return any kind of haul. The 27-year-old is due for free agency after the season, for one, and isn’t cheap ($9.95MM). He’s also a defensively limited corner outfielder – something most executives frown on these days – and hasn’t gotten off to a compelling start at the plate this year. While Castellanos was a well above-average offensive player from 2016-18, he’s batting a so-so .263/.315/.454 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 273 trips to the plate this season. Even if Castellanos’ .325 weighted on-base average starts moving toward his .342 expected wOBA, it still wouldn’t do much for his trade value.
As with Castellanos, Greene’s a soon-to-be free agent who seems quite likely to leave Detroit in the coming weeks. As a $4MM hurler with plenty of late-game experience, the Tigers are sure to find a taker for the 30-year-old Greene. There’s added value with one more season of arbitration control, though Greene’s performance thus far may also cause his arb price tag to shoot up. In theory, Greene has upped his trade value as well with a tremendous 1.00 ERA, 9.67 K/9, 2.33 BB/9 and 19 saves on 20 tries in 27 innings. However, potential buyers are likely wary regression is around the corner.
Hitters have only posted a .182 batting average on balls in play against Greene, down 124 points from his career mark of .306; his 79.8 percent strand rate sits 11 percent above his lifetime figure; and there’s a sizable gap between his wOBA against (.212) and xwOBA (.280). Greene also comes with an inconsistent track record, having mustered an unspectacular 4.30 ERA/3.88 FIP in 178 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen from 2016-18.
After Boyd, Castellanos and Greene, it’s not as easy to identify potentially on-the-block veteran Tigers. The team signed a pair of infielders, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, as well as two starters in Tyson Ross and Matt Moore to one-year deals last offseason. At the time, the Tigers were no doubt hoping those four would build their value leading up to the deadline. Instead, they’ve been either bad or injured (or both in some cases). Righty Michael Fulmer underwent Tommy John surgery before the season, further destroying his once-high trade value, while designated hitter Miguel Cabrera and injured righty Jordan Zimmermann remain immovable because of their declining performances and albatross contracts.
Pirates’ Trevor Williams Nearing Return
The Pirates have had to go almost a month without right-hander Trevor Williams, who landed on the injured list May 17 with a right side strain. Williams will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, though, and could slot back into Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as next Tuesday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.
Even with the injury factored in, the 27-year-old Williams has perhaps been the Pirates’ best starter in 2019. Before going on the IL, Williams totaled nine starts and 54 innings – good for a six-frame average – and pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9. It continued an underrated run of production for Williams, who combined for a 3.49 ERA/3.68 FIP over 56 starts and 309 1/3 innings from 2017-18.
In addition to Williams’ forthcoming return, the Pirates will soon welcome back fellow righty Jordan Lyles, per Berry. Lyles just hit the IL on the 10th with left hamstring tightness, though it appears he’ll only miss the minimum 10 days. So far in 2019, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the top bargain signings of the offseason. Since inking a one-year, $2.05MM contract during the winter, Lyles has notched a 3.64 ERA/3.63 FIP with 9.23 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and .98 HR/9 in 12 starts and 64 1/3 frames.
Of the 11 pitchers who have started for the Pirates this year, Williams, Lyles, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon are the only ones who have posted average or better numbers. Taillon has been down since the beginning of May with a right flexor strain, however, and Berry reports there’s still no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Chris Archer has come up well short of expectations, Steven Brault has battled control problems, and opposing offenses hammered high-end prospect Mitch Keller during his first two starts.
Latest On Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Matt Bush
At 36-31, the Rangers unexpectedly hold a two-game lead on an American League wild-card spot. Some of their recent success has come without injured outfielders Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun, though both players are progressing toward returns, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports (links: 1, 2). Meanwhile, injured reliever Matt Bush is close to rejoining the Rangers’ bullpen, according to Wilson.
Gallo, who suffered a left oblique strain June 1, could be back when the Rangers open a six-game road trip June 25, per Wilson. Given the nature of oblique injuries, a three-plus-week absence wouldn’t be a terrible outcome for Gallo or the Rangers. Nevertheless, the injury has temporarily derailed an MVP-caliber start for the 25-year-old Gallo, who was amid a career-best season when he landed on the shelf.
Gallo entered 2019 off back-to-back 40-home run campaigns, though his high-strikeout, low-batting average ways helped limit him to 2.8 fWAR in each of those years. So far this season, though, Gallo has already totaled 3.3 fWAR in 214 plate appearances. While his strikeouts continue to pile up, he has still slashed .276/.421/.653 (170 wRC+) with 17 homers. Along the way, Gallo has significantly increased his walk rate (19.1 percent, compared to 13.4 from 2015-18). Further backing up his bottom-line results, Gallo ranks first in the majors in average exit velocity (96.3) and fourth in expected weighted on-base average (.442), according to Statcast.
Along with demonstrating his offensive prowess, Gallo has been a major asset in the field, having logged six Defensive Runs Saved between left and center. Needless to say, Gallo’s return will be great news for Texas, whose lineup has unsurprisingly lost some bite without him.
While Calhoun’s no Gallo (not yet, at least), he also came out of the gates well before his IL stint. Calhoun has been down May 22 with a strained left quad, but he could return as early as this Monday, Wilson writes. The former top prospect, 24, raked at the Triple-A level at the start of the year before the Rangers recalled him in mid-May. Thanks to his stint in the minors and his injury, Calhoun has picked up just 24 PA in the majors this year. But his .435/.458/.739 line and two HRs are welcome signs for a young player who fell flat with Texas and its Triple-A team last season.
As for Bush, he hasn’t taken a big league field at all since undergoing surgery on a partial UCL tear in his right elbow last September. However, the 33-year-old could be back in the majors before the month’s out. Bush struggled mightily during his injury-shortened 2018, but he was a useful part of the Rangers’ bullpen in the two previous years. During his three-year, 137-inning Rangers tenure, Bush has pitched to a 3.35 ERA/3.65 FIP with 9.07 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9.
Ketel Marte Elevates, Celebrates
Ketel Marte joined the Diamondbacks in November 2016 as part of a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. At the time, Marte wasn’t regarded as the biggest piece of the deal – one that also featured Jean Segura, Taijuan Walker and a pre-breakout Mitch Haniger – but he has evolved into an indispensable piece for the Diamondbacks.
Baseball America considered Marte one of the majors’ 50 best prospects when the Mariners promoted him to the majors in 2015. The switch-hitting middle infielder lived up to the billing initially, as he slashed .283/.351/.402 (112 wRC+) with 1.8 fWAR during a 57-game, 247-plate appearance debut. Marte sharply declined in Year 2, though, and the Mariners deemed him expendable after he accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR in 466 trips to the plate that season.
On the heels of his trade to Arizona, the D-backs elected to slow cook Marte. They kept him at the Triple-A level the first few months of the 2017 campaign, during which he raked, before calling him up at the end of June. Marte didn’t log world-beating production over his two months in Arizona that year, but he impressed the organization enough for it to award him a five-year, $24MM guarantee heading into 2018. The extension appeared to be a shrewd choice on the D-backs’ part last year, when Marte hit .260/.332/.437 (104 wRC+) with 2.5 fWAR in 580 PA, and now it looks downright brilliant.
With 2.4 fWAR in 294 plate trips, Marte’s already on the verge of surpassing his career-high total in mid-June. His value has largely come from a massive uptick in power. The 25-year-old entered the season with 22 major league home runs, including 14 in 2018, but has already added 17 to his ledger thus far. And Marte’s isolated power number (.258) dwarfs the below-average .126 he posted from 2015-18.
Like many other hitters, Marte’s profiting from more of a fly ball-oriented approach. His flies are up almost 9 percent over his career mark, his grounders are down nearly 8 percent, and he’s pulling more pitches than ever. Since his last year in Seattle, when Marte hit a mere one homer and managed a similarly weak .064 ISO, his exit velocity on fly balls and line drives has risen almost 7 mph.
The changes Marte has made since he switched organizations have helped lead to a meaty .284/.332/.542 line (122 wRC+) this season. Better still, his increased output looks relatively sustainable. Marte’s not a product of his ballpark, having hit better outside Chase Field, and has recorded above-average production from both sides of the plate. His walk rate’s a below-average 6.4 percent, down from 9.3 last season, though he has never been a BB king (sorry). While Marte has swung more – including outside the strike zone – and made less contact than he did in 2018, his still-low 16.1 percent strikeout rate indicates he’s not totally selling out for gains in the power department.
In further good news, Marte’s .288 batting average on balls in play isn’t on the lucky side – particularly for a fast runner who hits the ball with authority. His exit velocity (90.9 mph), expected batting average (.287), expected slugging percentage (.516) and expected weighted on-base average (.361, compared to a .365 real wOBA) all rank in the league’s 77th percentile or higher, according to Statcast. And Marte hasn’t been vulnerable versus any offering, having registered an xwOBA between .342 and .401 against fastballs, offspeed pitches and breaking balls.
Adding everything up, it appears the Diamondbacks have a solid offensive presence in Marte. Not only that, but he has morphed into a multi-positional defensive building block. After saving seven runs as a full-time second baseman last year, Marte has combined for another seven this season – including six as a center fielder. The all-around package is an enviable one for Arizona, which looks as if it will continue to benefit from its choice to lock up Marte at set prices for the foreseeable future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Is Chris Archer Broken?
The Pirates decided last July to trade two of their prized young players, outfielder Austin Meadows and right-hander Tyler Glasnow, to the Rays for veteran righty Chris Archer. The Bucs took the gamble because they thought they were acquiring a top-of-the-rotation arm in Archer. That isn’t what they’ve gotten, though, and the deal now looks like one of the most lopsided swaps in recent memory. Not only have Meadows and Glasnow broken out in Tampa Bay, but Archer has taken enormous steps backward in his new home.
On Tuesday, in his 21st start as a Pirate, Archer yielded seven earned runs on eight hits – including five home runs – in six innings against the Braves. The Pirates lost the game, unsurprisingly, and continue to look as if they’ll miss the playoffs for the second straight year with Archer on their roster. With a 5.06 ERA/5.14 FIP in 112 innings in Pittsburgh, the 30-year-old Archer has been detrimental to the team’s cause.
At least this season, Archer hasn’t come close to resembling the pitcher who posted a 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP in 1,063 frames as a Ray. Among 118 starters who have thrown 50-plus innings in 2019, Archer ranks last in home run-to-fly ball rate (24.6 percent), fourth worst in FIP (6.15) and walks per nine (4.53), and 11th from the bottom in ERA (5.73). While Archer has fanned 9.2 batters per nine, even that’s below his 2015-18 output.
Looking beyond Archer’s basic production, alarming signs abound. His groundball rate, which has sat in the mid-40s for most of his career, is down to 38.6 percent. In turn, Archer’s fly ball rate has climbed to a career-worst 39.2 percent. That partially explains why he’s running an HR-to-FB rate nearly twice his lifetime figure.
Likewise, it doesn’t appear a change in repertoire has helped Archer’s cause. Per Baseball Savant, Archer turned to a slider (41.7 percent), four-seam fastball (36.4), sinker (10.5) and changeup (9.9) as his primary offerings last year. That has remained the case, though his usage – slider (34.8 percent), four-seamer (27.7), sinker (22.0) and change (13.6) – now looks much different. Hitters’ production against Archer’s slider and change has mostly stayed the same since last year. But they’re tattooing Archer’s sinker, a pitch the Pirates had him resurrect, having put up a .523 weighted on-base average/.522 xwOBA against it, and abusing his four-seamer (.380/.453). Archer has lost velocity on both pitches, and his typical location has changed since a year ago (heatmaps via FanGraphs: four-seamer: 2018, ’19; sinker: 2018, ’19)
As for Archer’s suddenly hideous walk rate, it’s easy to identify causes. After ranking 45th among 121 qualifiers in strike rate last year, he’s down to 93rd out of 127 this season. He’s also running his lowest chase, first-pitch and swinging-strike rates since 2016. When Archer’s not doling out walks, he’s surrendering damaging contact. He ranks in the league’s 24th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected batting average against, expected weighted on-base average against and expected slugging percentage against. While Archer’s .361 wOBA against is subpar, his .379 xwOBA paints an even bleaker picture.
As much as Archer has struggled this season, his pre-Pittsburgh track record earns him some benefit of the doubt. Considering what he accomplished as a Ray, it would be unwise to say Archer’s never going to rebound. However, it doesn’t appear his new sinker-heavy approach is working, nor does his once-bargain contract look all that appealing anymore. With $20MM in team options over the next two years ($9MM in 2020, $11MM in ’21), Archer’s not going to crush the Pirates’ payroll structure. However, as a low-budget team, they can’t afford to have one of their most expensive players continue to falter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.