Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Sean Burnett Announces Retirement
Veteran left-handed reliever Sean Burnett has announced his retirement from baseball in a lengthy, heartfelt statement via the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff (Twitter links). The 36-year-old southpaw had been pitching for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate before deciding to call it career.
Burnett last saw big league action with the Nationals in 2016 — one of many comeback attempts from a clearly talented pitcher whose promising career was decimated by injuries. As Burnett notes in his statement, he underwent four different surgeries — two of them Tommy John procedures — over a professional career that spanned parts of 19 seasons.
Originally selected by the Pirates with the No. 19 overall pick in 2000, Burnett was regarded as one of the game’s pitching prospects prior to his MLB debut, twice landing on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (including a No. 25 placement in 2003). His rookie campaign in 2004 was rough around the edges, as evidenced by a 5.02 ERA in 71 2/3 innings, but Burnett also showcased his upside with a complete-game shutout in just his sixth career start. The fact that said shutout took place in Montreal against the Expos is a testament to the length of Burnett’s career and the tireless effort he put into striving to return from the injury woes he faced.
Arm troubles shelved Burnett for the entire 2005 season, and he wouldn’t make it back to a big league mound until 2008, at which point he’d transitioned to a relief role on a full-time basis. He was eventually traded from the Pirates to the Nationals, alongside Nyjer Morgan, in the deal that sent Joel Hanrahan and Lastings Milledge to Pittsburgh. Burnett was already throwing well at the time of the swap but stepped up his game over the next three and a half seasons in D.C., working to a combined 2.81 ERA and handling plenty of high-leverage spots ( 71 holds, 10 saves).
That strong run led Burnett to ink a two-year, $8MM contract with the Angels in free agency. Unfortunately for both Burnett and the Halos, he pitched just 10 1/3 innings over the life of that contract due to one of the aforementioned Tommy John procedures. From that point forth, Burnett battled myriad health issues as signed numerous minor league deals in an effort to return to the big leagues — a goal he achieved in that brief 2016 showing with the Nationals.
All in all, Burnett’s career will come to a close with a 3.52 ERA in 378 1/3 innings of work at the MLB level, though on can only wonder what type of success he might’ve had with better health. That said, the majority of fans and players alike would be thrilled to appear in 380 Major League games, toss a shutout, collect 91 holds and 10 saves, and earn a bit north of $13MM in salary along the way. In addition to his time with the Pirates, Nats and Angels, Burnett also pitched in the minor league ranks for the Mets, Twins, Marlins, Dodgers and Braves (plus the Phillies in Spring Training 2017). Best wishes to the lefty in his post-playing endeavors.
White Sox Place Ryan Burr On 10-Day IL
The White Sox announced today that reliever Ryan Burr has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with a right elbow capsule strain.
In Burr’s place, fellow righty Jose Ruiz has been recalled. He already had a 40-man spot so no further roster moves are required.
Burr, who turns 25 today, had been off to a reasonably useful start to the year. While he has allowed ten earned runs in 19 2/3 innings, he’s sporting a solid 20:8 K/BB ratio. Burr’s 8.7% swinging-strike rate isn’t overly impressive, but he’s drawing grounders at a 47.4% clip and clocking in with a strong 95.7 mph average heater.
It isn’t clear at this point how severe the injury is or what kind of timetable might be anticipated. Burr’s IL placement is retroactive to May 25th. The White Sox pen hasn’t exactly been a stellar unit this year. Though it sits in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA, it’s a bottom-three outfit by measure of SIERA.
The Twin Gems Of The Spring Extensions
The dizzying run of extensions this spring drew quite a lot of attention. Several contracts were pointed to as being notably team friendly. Others were of obvious importance because they involved superstars entering walk years.
The sheer volume of transactions tended to obscure the fine details of each particular decision. And several of the extensions were all but buried in the news. When the Twins set up the mics to announce extensions for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, the full rush of deals hadn’t yet occurred. But the moves came at the same time that star hurlers Aaron Nola and Luis Severino were signing on the dotted line, drawing much of the attention away from a Minnesota club that was coming off of a middling 2018 season and hadn’t been quite as bold as might have been anticipated in free agency. And the flood of later signings ensured that the Twins’ deals would receive relatively little attention.
Frankly, given the costs involved, those signings did not represent an especially monumental moment for the franchise. The Joe Mauer contract, this was not. The Twins did not strike deals with top young starter Jose Berrios or high-end outfielder Eddie Rosario, both of whom would likely have commanded bigger dollars. Better-known former top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano weren’t really in position for extensions after rough seasons.
So, did we sleep on the Twins? From a team perspective, the roster upside was obvious, but nobody foresaw a 36-17 start to the year and a ten-game lead over the sagging Indians. And what of the extensions they signed? Any sober examination of the Polanco and Kepler contracts at the time of signing would have noted the potential upside but settled on relatively modest expectations. With a third of the season in the books, both deals look like slam dunks.
Let’s look first at Polanco. When the Twins promised him $25.75MM over five years, they were obviously quite comfortable with the risks and had expectations of excess value. But it’s hard to imagine they anticipated the sort of monster production they’ve received from the 25-year-old shortstop.
When MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed to Jose Ramirez as a comp, he was thinking primarily of the latter’s contract — not his ensuing breakout. As it turns out, Polanco has followed Ramirez in converting contact ability into power.
This can’t be called a total surprise. As Adams wrote in assessing the Polanco deal, “if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.” Certainly, the Twins felt there was something more in the tank after a strong but hardly elite showing in 2018. The stated expectation was that the “best is yet to come” and that Polanco would “continue to develop and grow.”
But that was all projection and feel-good press conference talk. Did anyone really think Polanco would turn on the jets in this manner? He’s now slashing .332/.404/.584 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. Better yet, he has boosted his walk rate up to 10.5% and hasn’t even needed to add swing and miss (14.9% strikeout rate) to boost his pop. There’s likely a bit of regression in store, with a .363 BABIP and decent spread in Statcast results/expectations (.418 wOBA vs. .382 xwOBA). But the arrow is obviously pointed upward.
It’s easy to see how the contract could become the sort of bargain that helps fuel a lengthy contention window. One need only look at Ramirez. The Twins had ample control over Polanco already, as he was only a 2+ service-class, non-Super Two player. (He’d have had more but for an ill-advised PED suspension.) Because they made the deal before arbitration and in advance of a true breakout, the Twins can control Polanco through the 2025 season for a total cost of just $47MM, with the final two seasons coming via option ($10.5MM/$1MM buyout, $12.5MM/$750K buyout).
Things are looking quite nice on the Kepler side of things as well. He inked a five-year, $35MM deal. The calculus was different from the get-go in his case, though the decision to make the deal was also driven by a belief that he was primed to improve. Kepler had already reached arbitration as a Super Two, agreeing to a $3.125MM salary with the organization earlier in the winter. With three more arb trips to build from that baseline, and a track record of solid home run production, Kepler was able to command a higher payday.
In some respects, this was the riskier deal for the team. True, he had shown plenty of skill: the 26-year-old had already cracked twenty long balls, turned in three seasons of .180+ isolated power, and made great strides in his plate discipline in 2018 (11.6% walk rate vs. 15.7% strikeout rate). He’s also regarded as a quality defensive outfielder. At the same time, it took a bit of a leap of faith to entrust this kind of cash in a corner outfielder that hadn’t yet turned in a full season of league-average production by measure of wRC+.
So far, so good. Kepler has already launched a dozen long balls in 211 plate appearances. He’s maintaining that strong K/BB blend. And he’s up to a .281 batting average on a .272 batting average on balls in play — a reversal of some poor fortune from 2018 (.224 batting average, .236 BABIP). Statcast credits him with more hard contact (44.5%) and a loftier launch angle (17.2 degrees) than ever before.
Kepler’s early showing surely makes the Twins feel even better about their commitment than they did at the time. Beyond the $35MM guaranteed, the Twins have another year of control at just $10MM ($1MM buyout).
Will Polanco and Kepler keep this up for the long haul? Or even the duration of the present season? That’s hard to say. A fair but conservative estimate would anticipate some regression. But it’d also recognize a very real increase in the present and anticipated future on-field value of these players.
While these contracts largely fell through the cracks at the time they were struck, they now look to be among the best buys of the spring. The team deserves credit for rightly identifying these targets. But it’s also a credit to Polanco and Kepler. They accepted reasonably fair deals, based upon their prior track records, then set to work turning those contracts into potential bargains. As for the Twins organization, these deals didn’t change the near-term complexion of the roster in the least. But they sure do help brighten the long-term outlook.
Odubel Herrera Placed On Administrative Leave After Arrest
11:34am: Herrera has been placed on administrative leave, Gelb tweets.
10:49am: Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera was arrested last night in Atlantic City, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. He was released after being charged with simple assault relating to a domestic violence incident, Matt Gelb of The Athletic adds on Twitter.
Herrera is said to have been arrested after an incident involving a 20-year-old woman believed to be his girlfriend. She “had visible signs of injury to her arms and neck” due to the alleged assault, according to the police report obtained by Gelb.
It is disturbing and disheartening to learn of another alleged perpetration of domestic violence from a MLB player. Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias was arrested recently and is also facing criminal charges. Numerous other players have been suspended in recent years under the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy.
Given the reported facts, it seems all but certain that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred will exercise his authority to place the 27-year-old Herrera on administrative leave. The policy authorizes the commissioner to place players on paid leave for one week at a time during the pendency of an investigation.
The Phillies had an off day yesterday and are scheduled to begin a home series today. If Herrera is placed on administrative leave, the club would be able to bring up a replacement player this evening.
Where things go from that point remains to be seen. In situations in which the league has been able to acquire evidence to support the possibility of an action that violates the policy, it has applied successive leave periods to keep a player out of action while final punishment is assessed. But that is not always the course. Urias was reinstated one week after his arrest while the league continues its investigation.
Twins Place Michael Pineda On IL, Select Devin Smeltzer
The Twins announced today that righty Michael Pineda has been placed on the 10-day injured list with right knee tendinitis. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by lefty Devin Smeltzer, whose contract was selected.
Pineda’s right knee represents one of only a few concerns with a Minnesota roster that has fired on all cylinders to open the year. He underwent meniscus surgery in the same joint late last season, thwarting his effort to make it back to the big leagues in 2018.
Thus far in 2019, the 30-year-old righty owns a 5.34 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 59 frames. In many respects, Pineda looks like much the same pitcher he has always been. His pitch mix is familiar; though he has lost some velocity, averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball, he is generating swinging strikes (11.7%) at close to his career rate (12.5%).
Even as his team thrives on hitting homers, Pineda has been done in by the long ball. He’s allowing 2.14 per nine on a 17.1% HR/FB rate. Pineda is drawing far more contact in the air than ever before, with a 0.76 GB/FB rate that lags well behind his career 1.19 mark.
Entering the year, Pineda had never allowed a double-digit average launch angle. Opposing hitters are sitting at 17.5 degrees in 2019. And Statcast’s figures suggest he has actually been a bit fortunate, giving him a .338 wOBA and .350 xwOBA.
Some adjustments are obviously in order for Pineda, though obviously the first order of business will be getting his knee back to health. It is not known at this time what kind of timeline the club anticipates.
Meanwhile, the club will get its first look at the 23-year-old Smeltzer, who came to Minnesota in last summer’s Brian Dozier swap. He’s an increasingly interesting hurler to watch. As chief baseball officer Derek Falvey explains, the club “had some ideas around pitch mix adjustment” and other such tweaks that Smeltzer has adopted to promising effect. (Via Dan Hayes of The Athletic, on Twitter.)
Through 54 2/3 innings in nine upper minors starts this season, Smeltzer carries a sparkling 1.15 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. He has allowed only 39 hits and two home runs, though both of those shots have come since he was promoted to Triple-A. Smeltzer’s K/BB mix has also taken a step back at the highest level of the minors.
Alex Wood Says Rehab Progressing “Really Well”
Reds lefty Alex Wood is finally pain-free after struggling with back issues all spring, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. He expressed optimism that he has turned the corner and is ready to move back towards the MLB roster.
Though Wood has still yet to throw off of a mound since a setback prompted a long layoff, there’s now some forward momentum — as well as a loose timeline. Now a week into a throwing program, Wood estimates that he’s “probably 2 ½ weeks” away from a rehab assignment. At last look, this kind of general rehab framework wasn’t yet clear.
Since he’ll likely need a few minor-league outings to build up a pitch count, it seems unrealistic to expect a return before the month of July. Nightengale suggests the All-Star break as a loose target, which seems reasonable.
That’s still a ways off. And hurdles remain, particularly since setbacks have thwarted prior attempts to overcome the back issues that cropped up this spring.
Wood thinks this time is different. “I feel really good,” he says. “Things have been going really, really well.” Though he acknowledged that he still doesn’t “want to get too far ahead of myself” given the course the injury has taken, he says he’s “definitely on the way” back to the MLB mound.
The Reds rotation has been a pleasant surprise even without Wood, an offseason acquisition who is earning $9.65MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. But that doesn’t mean the 28-year-old southpaw isn’t needed back.
For one thing, it would be unwise to assume that the club will continue to enjoy such phenomenal good health from its existing unit. The Reds have yet to hand the ball to a pitcher other than Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Tyler Mahle, or Anthony DeSclafani to open a game. There’s also room to improve in the fifth slot, as DeSclafani has struggled.
If the Cincinnati organization is to make a charge this summer, it’ll need every advantage it can get. Wood could also be a trade or even a qualifying offer candidate if he returns to good form in a timely manner. And there’s obviously plenty on the line for the pitcher himself, who is slated to reach the open market at the end of the season.
AL Central Notes: Tigers Pitching, Harrison, Jay, Garver
The Tigers are still rooting around for innings, but that doesn’t mean that a certain long-time MLB hurler is destined for Detroit. GM Al Avila directly rejected a report from the Dominican Republic that suggested the Tigers were close to reaching a deal with Bartolo Colon, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com writes. Still, there’s an obvious need for organizational depth. As skipper Ron Gardenhire puts it: “We don’t have enough [pitchers] down there in the minor leagues that can really come up and do anything right now. They’re not ready for this.”
More from the American League Central:
- Tigers infielder Josh Harrison is undergoing an MRI today after suffering an injury to his left hamstring, Gardenhire told reporters including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). The 31-year-old has been off to an ugly start with the bat, slashing just .176/.219/.265 in 146 plate appearances, but he’s a respected veteran presence and there’s still hope he could get things going and turn into a summer trade piece. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Tigers bring back Jeimer Candelario if Harrison requires an IL stint. The 25-year-old has stung the ball at Triple-A since being optioned. Dawel Lugo, who has struggled since being installed at third base, could be bumped over to second.
- It seems that a rehab assignment is the next step up for White Sox outfielder Jon Jay, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. Jay has taken quite some time to recover from an injury suffered this spring that, per Van Schouwen, “affected his hip, low back and groin.” The veteran outfielder is testing his body in extended Spring Training but seems to be on track to join an affiliate in short order.
- As if they needed the boost, the Twins may not go long without catcher Mitch Garver. As Judd Zulgad of SKOR North tweets, Garver is slated for a quick rehab assignment and could return to the MLB roster by the weekend. It seemed the outlook could have been much worse when he suffered a high ankle sprain recently. Garver, 28, has been one of baseball’s most intriguing early performers, turning in a .329/.418/.747 batting line with nine home runs in 91 plate appearances to open the year.
AL West Notes: Gallo, Halos Hurlers, M’s, Herrmann, McHugh
There’s little doubt that Rangers slugger Joey Gallo has drastically increased his career earnings outlook with a massive start to the current season. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News takes a look at the state of affairs on the extension front for baseball’s reigning three-true-outcomes king. The organization is obviously impressed, with manager Chris Woodward tabbing Gallo the club’s “best player” and GM Jon Daniels saying that he’s “mentally in a great spot.” Gallo says he’s not thinking about contracts, but agent Scott Boras surely is. As Grant notes, Boras’s assessment of Gallo’s season to date — “we are seeing the evolution of a superstar player” — offers a hint as to the kind of contract it might take to lock him up.
More from the American League West:
- Angels righty JC Ramirez is set to launch a rehab assignment later this week, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ramirez underwent Tommy John surgery last April. With his 30-day rehab clock set to be triggered, Ramirez is now back on the map as a near-term roster piece for the Halos. The club owes him $1,901,000 this year, with two more arb campaigns remaining. Though he has had some struggles in his time in the majors, Ramirez has given the Halos 200 1/3 innings of 4.04 ERA ball and showed he could stick in the rotation in 2017.
- As ever, there are other updates to the Angels rotation mix. Nick Tropeano will beat Ramirez back to the big leagues; as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets, Tropeano is coming up to pitch today’s ballgame. He was optioned after working back from a shoulder strain, and has been tagged in the run-happy PCL, but the innings are needed now. That’s due in no small part to the issues surrounding Matt Harvey, who just hit the injured list with a back strain after an awful stretch on the hill. Harvey didn’t have much of a timeline to offer reporters, as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter link). With more to sort out than an injury, there’s no reason to think Harvey will be rushed back.
- For the Mariners, there are a few incremental health updates of note, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports (all links to Twitter). Rehabbing relievers Sam Tuivailala and Hunter Strickland are still a ways off. The former, who is working back from Achilles surgery, has come down with dead arm and may need to re-start his rehab rather than heading back to the majors. The latter is readying for his first mound work since leaving with a lat injury earlier this year. Starter Felix Hernandez, who’s on the IL with a shoulder strain, is also nearing mound work. The club is still taking it slow with corner infielder Ryon Healy, who has yet to resume baseball activity after recently hitting the shelf due to a balky lower back. That’s a less promising outlook than had been indicated when he was first sidelined, but the club no doubt hopes to avoid a lingering problem.
- Athletics backstop Chris Herrmann is nearing a rehab assignment, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Herrmann inked a one-year, $1MM deal over the offseason but hasn’t yet debuted with his new organization owing to knee surgery. It remains to be seen how the Oakland club will manage its roster once Herrmann is ready; Josh Phegley has hit well all year and Nick Hundley has turned it on after a dreadful start. It’s possible the A’s could ultimately carry all three, at least for a stretch, as Herrmann does have experience playing in other parts of the field.
- It still doesn’t seem the Astros have cause for alarm regarding righty Collin McHugh, but he’s not going to be ready to return within the minimum ten-day window. Manager A.J. Hinch tells reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link), that McHugh is in need of “a little more down time” to let his elbow stop barking. “He’s played catch a couple days and has not seen any progress,” says Hinch. “He’s not any closer than he was a few days ago.” McHugh has been a bit homer-prone, which explains his rough 6.04 ERA on the year, but otherwise has impressive peripherals. That he has been moved out of the rotation and into a relief role is testament to the depth of the talent on hand in Houston.
Boras On Market For Dallas Keuchel
Agent Scott Boras discussed the ongoing free agency of veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel today in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Keuchel is not expected to sign until after midnight on June 2nd, after which time he will be free of draft compensation.
It has emerged lately that Keuchel has thrown multiple simulated games, both to prepare himself for a quick reentry to the majors and to offer an opportunity for interested teams to get a look. Boras suggests there has been no shortage of interest from pro scouts. As he put it, “we had so many scouts show up we had to open up the hot dog stand.”
When they weren’t lined up for ballpark delicacies courtesy of the Boras Corporation, the scouts were taking a hard look at a 31-year-old hurler who worked 204 2/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball last year but hasn’t pitched competitively in 2019. The indication has been that Keuchel will be willing to ink a one-year deal, but he’s understandably interested in a premium salary.
Boras didn’t give up any details, but he certainly left the sense that he’s not concerned with his client’s market positioning after giving such extensive live looks to scouts. “Dallas is going to certainly have a level of interest and demand,” says Boras. The outspoken agent didn’t miss an opportunity to shred the qualifying offer system. The fact that Keuchel is still on the open market, he says, “just shows you how teams value draft picks … they’re worth a lot of money.”
