MLBTR Poll: Grade The Edwin Encarnacion Swap
The Yankees struck early over the weekend, lining up a deal with the Mariners to bring in slugger Edwin Encarnacion. It’ll reportedly cost the club a pitching prospect (Juan Then) and something like $7MM in salary obligations (approximately half of the remainder owed by the M’s this season and on a 2020 option buyout).
(I’d like to crow over the fact that I prognosticated EE as the next player to be traded in a recent chat. Unfortunately, I was also a bit dismissive in discussing the Yankees as a possible suitor.)
It’s hard not to love the potential look of the Yanks’ lineup with Encarnacion added to the mix. He was obliterating opposing pitching to the tune of a .241/.356/.531 slash line and 21 home runs in Seattle. With fellow righty sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the mend, to say nothing of the players already on the active roster at the moment, the Bronx Bombers could have an otherworldly array of power bats down the stretch.
There’s certainly an argument that the New York organization should see starting pitching as its top priority. And that may well be the case. Adding EE hardly precludes further moves to add arms. The Yankees did take on luxury tax obligations and creep closer to the highest penalty level with this swap. But the deal also could help free the team to utilize young outfielder Clint Frazier in an ensuing move.
The Yanks hold the edge in the AL East at the moment, but it’s a precarious hold. The Rays seem to be here to stay while the Red Sox have steadily moved back into range. Adding Encarnacion provides an immediate boost, protects against further injury issues or setbacks, and creates immense lineup upside. On the other hand, it’s a costly move on an older player who joins a collection of defensively limited sluggers with Luke Voit already ensconced at first base and Judge & Stanton perhaps warranting some DH time when they return.
How do you grade the move? (Poll link for app users.)
Grade the Yankees' Acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion
-
A 45% (7,107)
-
B 34% (5,316)
-
C 13% (2,118)
-
F 4% (599)
-
D 4% (572)
Total votes: 15,712
Jed Lowrie “Not Close” To 2019 Debut
TODAY: Speaking to reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey) on Saturday, Van Wagenen didn’t say whether Lowrie was still suffering from only his hamstring problem, or if he was dealing with a re-aggravation of his original knee issue, or another injury altogether. “I’m not going to get into any more details beyond the fact that his left side needs to be working in concert with each other,” the Mets GM said. “The knee to the hamstring, we want to make sure that the kinetic chain is working together and that his posture and his functionality is working.”
THURSDAY: Infielder Jed Lowrie was one of the Mets’ most significant acquisitions of the winter, when they signed the former Athletic to a two-year, $20MM contract. Lowrie still hasn’t debuted with his new club since suffering a knee strain in February, though, and his return to the majors isn’t on the horizon.
Although Lowrie’s knee has healed, he incurred a hamstring strain last month that continues to prevent him from taking the field. Updating Lowrie’s status Thursday, Mets manager Mickey Callaway said the 35-year-old is “not close” to embarking on a rehab assignment, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
Durability issues have been all too common for Lowrie since he began his career with the Red Sox in 2008, though he enjoyed healthy seasons in Oakland from 2017-18. During that two-year period, the switch-hitting Lowrie appeared in 310 of a possible 324 regular-season games, amassed 1,325 plate appearances and slashed .272/.356/.448 (121 wRC+) with 37 home runs. Going by fWAR (8.5), Lowrie was the league’s third-most valuable second baseman in his final two seasons with the A’s.
Lowrie parlayed his late-career renaissance into his high-paying deal with the Mets, who were expecting more of the same. Whether it was a wise allocation of resources on rookie general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s part is debatable. After all, the Lowrie signing came on the heels of the acquisitions of two other infielders – Robinson Cano and J.D. Davis – and the Mets also had Jeff McNeil and Todd Frazier on hand to compete for second and third base spots. As it turns out, the currently injured Cano has been among the Mets’ biggest disappointments this season, while Davis, McNeil and Frazier (especially McNeil) rank as three of their most productive contributors.
The Mets’ major commitment to Cano and the success Davis, McNeil and Frazier have enjoyed further call into question how Lowrie will fit on their roster if he does return. He’s not going to usurp first base from NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, nor does Lowrie seem likely to take over shortstop (where he hasn’t played extensively since 2014) for Amed Rosario. Meanwhile, the Mets have two cornerstone corner outfielders in Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo (also injured), and first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith has been tremendous in a part-time role.
Hunter Pence, Nomar Mazara To Receive MRIs On Monday
Two Rangers outfielders will be receiving MRIs on Monday for leg ailments. Hunter Pence left today’s game in the fifth inning after suffering right groin tightness while chasing a fly ball. Pence was in right field in place of Nomar Mazara, who received a day off after coming out of Saturday’s game early due to right knee soreness. Mazara told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (article links) and other reporters that he has been dealing with the issue for a couple of weeks, though curiously, the injury “doesn’t hurt during games, more when I am just standing around,” the outfielder said.
Of the two injuries, Rangers manager Chris Woodward said “If I was a betting man, I would assume Hunter” would be the one heading to the injured list, if the team was forced to make a roster move. Mazara’s MRI sounds more precautionary in nature, and Woodward noted that the younger outfielder was already feeling better on Sunday.
If only one player hits the IL, Texas has a replacement ready to go in Willie Calhoun, who is finishing off a rehab stint from his own injured list stint from a left quad strain that has sidelined him since May 22. If both Mazara and Pence have to miss time, the Rangers’ outfield wouldn’t be shorthanded for long, as Joey Gallo is roughly a week away from recovering his rehab from an oblique strain, though the team is expected to be cautious with Gallo. These twin IL returns were lining up as a potential roster crunch situation for the Rangers in the outfield/DH mix, though this problem could be put off for a while longer if Pence and/or Mazara end up injured themselves.
An IL visit would interrupt the feel-good story that is Pence’s comeback season, as the popular veteran is hitting .294/.353/.608 with 15 homers over 215 PA. It seemed as if Pence’s career was winding down following subpar years with the Giants in 2017 and 2018, but after overhauling his swing in the offseason, Pence signed with Texas on a minor league contract and has suddenly delivered one of his very best seasons. Some regression is inevitable, as Pence’s .396 wOBA far exceeds his .368 xwOBA, though even the latter figure is more than respectable.
While Pence is overachieving at age 36, the 24-year-old Mazara has still yet to break out in his fourth Major League season. Considered one of baseball’s top prospects heading into the 2016 season, Mazara is hitting .265/.316/.435 this season, which is just about in line with his overall career numbers over 1995 PA in the big leagues. Between this lackluster offensive production and subpar defensive metrics, Mazara has only a 1.5 fWAR to show for 486 career games. One bright spot from this year’s numbers is a 45.2% hard-hit ball rate, easily the best of Mazara’s short career, though is also walking less and has a career-high swinging strike rate.
Astros, Rockies Had Interest In Edwin Encarnacion
Moving as much of Edwin Encarnacion‘s salary as possible was the Mariners’ prime incentive in finding a trade partner for the slugger, which is why the Yankees ultimately won the bidding. Other teams were also checking in with the M’s about Encarnacion, though ultimately weren’t as willing as New York was to cover as much salary, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. We heard earlier today about the Rays’ interest, and Feinsand reports that the Astros “were also actively involved, with the Rockies in the mix to a lesser extent.”
Encarnacion would certainly have beefed up a first base/DH mix that has been Houston’s only real offensive weak spot this season, as both Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White have posted below-average numbers. Then again, young Yordan Alvarez‘s hot start has created optimism that the Astros could address that DH need from within, and the Astros are seemingly more in need of pitching than they are of another big bat (then again, the same could’ve been said of the Yankees).
In terms of taking on salary, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource has the Astros projected for a luxury tax number of just under $189.5MM, well below the $206MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Since the Yankees ended up adding only $3.4MM in extra luxury tax funds in the Encarnacion trade, on paper it would seem like Houston would certainly have taken on a similar financial obligation and still had enough money left over to acquire pitching without crossing the CBT line. Of course, it’s possible other factors were part of any Houston/Seattle talks. Perhaps the Mariners wanted more to trade Encarnacion within the AL West; maybe the two sides just couldn’t agree on a suitable prospect to change hands in a deal.
Colorado would’ve been more of a curious fit for Encarnacion, which likely explains their “lesser” degree of interest. Without a DH spot on offer, the Rockies would have had to play Encarnacion at first base every day, which might have been a tough ask of a 36-year-old who has spent the bulk of his time as a designated hitter over the last nine seasons. (Encarnacion did start at first base 45 times for the Mariners this year, though still with 19 DH starts to keep him well-rested.)
Adding Encarnacion to first base would have also required a shift back to second base for Daniel Murphy, who has been a decidedly subpar defensive second baseman throughout his entire career. The Rockies might have been considering whether the fielding dropoff would have been worth the risk, since Murphy’s bat might have at least sparked some type of positive help from the second base spot. No team in baseball has gotten less production (-1.0 bWAR) than the Rockies out of their second basemen in 2019.
Then again, Murphy has yet to really catch fire at the plate himself, hitting only .278/.324/.463 with five homers over 176 PA, while missing four weeks with a fractured finger. As the Rockies look towards the trade deadline, the easier solution to their second base situation might be to simply acquire an actual second baseman as an upgrade over the Ryan McMahon/Brendan Rodgers/Garrett Hampson mix, rather than move Murphy over and obtaining a new first baseman.
Rizzo On Trading Scherzer: Nats “Certainly Not Thinking About That Right Now”
Even after a 15-5 rout of the Diamondbacks today, the Nationals’ record is just 33-38, leaving the club with a lot of ground to make up in the standings. Washington is 8.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East, and six games behind the Phillies for the last wild card slot, and barring a big turn-around in the coming weeks, speculation will only increase that the Nats could become sellers at the trade deadline.
Near-term free agents like Sean Doolittle, Howie Kendrick, and even star slugger Anthony Rendon have drawn a lot of the trade buzz, though the biggest move the Nationals could make is offering up ace Max Scherzer. Such a trade doesn’t appear to be in the cards, however, as GM Mike Rizzo told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) that “we’re certainly not thinking about that right now.”
“We control the best pitcher in baseball for 2 1/2 more years – three playoff runs,” Rizzo said. “[Scherzer is] extremely well-priced. If you look at his contract, he’s extremely, extremely well-priced. We would have to command something that would be franchise-altering to consider moving him.”
Scherzer is officially owed $142.5MM through the end of the 2021 season, though $105MM of that sum will be paid out in deferrals from 2022-28. As Rosenthal mentions, Washington could also include money in a hypothetical trade in order to lessen the $30MM annual luxury tax hit attached to Scherzer’s deal.
The inclusion of the “right now” qualifier in Rizzo’s statement perhaps leaves the door slightly open for a trade, though it probably leans closer to due diligence rather than any hint towards moving Scherzer. After all, while Rizzo said the Nationals are still hoping for a midseason run, “you also have to be flexible and open-minded enough to know when you have to make changes and go in a different direction.”
Dealing Scherzer, however, would be the type of move that doesn’t only change “direction,” but perhaps sets a new course overall. The Nats have yet to abandon the idea of contending even in 2019, let alone in 2020, and trading a front-of-the-rotation arm like Scherzer doesn’t seem like the type of deal a club looking to contend next season would make, regardless of the huge return such a deal would inevitably bring. Trading a perennial Cy Young candidate and obtaining the type of win-now pieces necessary to reload for another crack at the NL East in 2020 would be an awfully difficult needle to thread, especially when simply keeping Scherzer is such an obvious boon to the rotation.
Between this factor and the personal ties between Rizzo and Scherzer, a trade seems unlikely at best. “I’ve never been closer to a player in my career. I drafted him in Arizona,” said Rizzo, who was formerly the Diamondbacks’ scouting director. “I watched him grow up. We went hard after him (in free agency). We made him a promise that if you’re signing for seven years and you’re deferring all this money to help us win championships, we’re going to do everything we can to win.”
Health Notes: Zimmermann, Nimmo, Marlins, Smith, Wood, Dozier
Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, currently on the mend after suffering a UCL sprain, looks to be nearing his return, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. On Thursday, Zimmermann threw 4 2/3 innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Toledo, coming away pleased with the 69 pitches he threw and declaring his readiness to rejoin the Major League rotation for his next start. Whether that will actually come to fruition is up to the Tigers’ brass, though manager Ron Gardenhire seemed hesitant to welcome back a pitcher whose limited workload could lead to more bullpen days, which the team is trying to avoid. Regardless, the 33-year-old’s return looks to be just around the corner, certainly a promising development for a team that has had to patch together a starting staff after withstanding injuries to four-fifths of its Opening Day rotation.
Here are the latest updates on other injuries from around baseball…
- Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is going to consult more specialists about the bulging disc in his neck, tweets Tim Healey of Newsday. Nimmo has been sidelined with that same injury since May 20, and the latest is a troubling development for an organization that has been maligned for its handling of players’ injuries. At this time, there is still no timeline for when Nimmo might be cleared to return.
- Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith has been cleared to begin a throwing program, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Smith landed on the 10-day IL on June 7 thanks to inflammation in his left hip, but it doesn’t appear that the injury will keep him out much longer, as Smith is on track to return in late June. The 27-year-old southpaw has quietly emerged as a promising starter for the Marlins, having struck out 82 batters in 62 innings of work. Over the last two seasons in Miami, Smith has posted an impressive 3.83 ERA in 143 1/3 innings.
- Hunter Dozier will spend the next three days rehabbing with the Royals‘ Double-A affiliate, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com, who adds that Dozier will later join Triple-A Omaha after the birth of his child. The next step following that is to work his way back to the MLB club, which is good news for the Royals, who originally tabbed Dozier to return in late June. It looks like that timeline is still a realistic target for the third baseman, who has emerged as one of Kansas City’s few untouchable pieces and an All-Star candidate in the American League.
- Another promising update for the Reds, with left-hander Alex Wood nearing a rehab assignment, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, who tweets that the southpaw has a live BP session on Tuesday, which could lead to a minor-league rehab stint if all goes well. Wood, 28, has been dealing with lower back soreness that has put his Reds debut on hold. However, it looks as if that time could come around the All-Star break for the former Dodger.
Sean Manaea Nearing Rehab Assignment
Athletics left-hander Sean Manaea may require just one more simulated game before he can begin a minor-league rehab assignment, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
After undergoing shoulder surgery last September, Manaea was expected to miss the entirety of the 2019 season. However, Manaea is operating well ahead of schedule, and looks on track to return to the Athletics’ rotation this season. Slusser reported in March that Manaea was aiming to return around the All-Star Break in July, and it now appears that the left-hander is progressing well towards that goal, though there is not yet a precise timeline for Manaea to rejoin the A’s.
Slusser notes that A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo, who recently began their own rehab assignments, are likely to return before Manaea, perhaps in early July. Though Puk and Luzardo have each yet to debut in the Major Leagues, both southpaws are widely regarded as MLB-ready prospects who would be pitching in Oakland were it not for untimely injuries.
The addition of Puk, Luzardo, and Manaea would represent a considerable boon to an Athletics club that has essentially treaded water this season. After earning a Wild Card berth last year, the 36-36 Athletics have only managed to hover around .500, remaining on the periphery of the playoff race, but mostly looking like a longshot to rejoin the October fray. Welcoming the aforementioned trio of promising lefties would only help those odds, it would seem, considering the inconsistent starting pitching that has troubled Bob Melvin’s club all season.
Manaea emerged last season as the Athletics’ best starter, pitching 160 2/3 innings for the A’s, ultimately working to a 3.59 ERA. Her peripheral numbers were slightly less impressive, but nonetheless painted Manaea as a valuable left-hander for a playoff club that wanted for starting options. He could slot into a 2019 rotation that has enjoyed a breakout season from Frankie Montas, as well as adequate showings from Chris Bassitt and Brett Anderson. If the three young left-handers can return quickly and make good on their potential, they could fuel a second-half surge in Oakland.
White Sox To Promote Zack Collins
The White Sox are set to call up catcher Zack Collins from Triple-A, tweets Andy Slater of 640 The Hurricane radio. Collins is not on the Chicago 40-man roster, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move to clear room for him.
Collins, a 24-year-old catcher from the University of Miami, was a first-round pick (tenth overall) by the White Sox in 2016. MLB Pipeline regards Collins as the 11th-best prospect in the Chicago farm system, lauding his combination of power and on-base skills. Collins’s patience at the plate is perhaps his best trait, as he drew 101 bases on balls in 122 Double-A games last season, good for a 19% walk rate. MLB Pipeline also touts his “prodigious power to all fields,” with Collins hitting nine home runs in 48 games this season.
On the flip side, Collins’s patience in working counts has also translated to high strikeout totals in his professional career: in 1365 minor league plate appearances, Collins has produced a 29% strikeout rate. His struggles making contact have also produced low batting averages, though Collins’s skillset is such that he can be productive without hitting for a high average. Scouts are also skeptical his defense behind the plate, with MLB Pipeline suggesting that Collins “lacks soft hands and is a shaky receiver.”
This season, the White Sox have turned to James McCann and Welington Castillo to handle the catching duties. While McCann has been one of the most productive White Sox this season, the results have not been so promising for Castillo, who has produced a paltry .642 OPS this year and looks to be a candidate to be designated for assignment. It’s also notable that Yonder Alonso, who has been the team’s primary DH this year, has been largely unproductive for the South Siders, as he has mustered just a .591 OPS in 60 games.
Considering the concerns about Collins’s defensive ability behind the plate, there may be an opening for regular ABs as a designated hitter. However, if the White Sox are primarily concerned with Collins’s development, it may be most beneficial to give him every opportunity to prove his worth as a catcher before relegating him to DH. It remains to be seen just how often Collins will get reps at catcher, but the youth movement in Chicago is firmly underway, with Collins the latest prospect to join the MLB club.
Craig Kimbrel To Join Cubs’ Triple-A Affiliate
Cubs free-agent acquisition Craig Kimbrel is scheduled to join the Triple-A Iowa Cubs, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Since signing with his new club, Kimbrel had been working at the Cubs’ complex in Arizona, but will now travel to Sacramento for his first game action, which is slated for Tuesday, adds Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
The 31-year-old Kimbrel, fresh off signing a 3-year, $43MM contract, has yet to appear in a professional game this season, but that will change this week, with the electric closer set to get some minor-league seasoning before he appears out of a Major League bullpen. While it doesn’t appear that Kimbrel will be in Chicago by the June 20 mark that was tentatively suggested by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, one would imagine that Kimbrel should be ready for big league competition before too long.
And the reinforcements couldn’t come too early for the Cubs, a team that has fielded a bullpen that as a whole has graded out as roughly average thus far. While the Cubs’ most pressing need might be left-handed relievers, Kimbrel will no doubt strengthen a unit that features just two players sporting a FIP below 4.00. As a team, the Cubs have blown 12 saves in 2019, and while saves are of course a flawed metric, the number is nonetheless indicative of the current unit’s lack of reliability.
On the flip side, for his career, Kimbrel’s FIP sits at an outlandish 1.96, placing him in the company of some of the game’s all-time great relief pitchers. And while last season gave way to some red flags—especially in the postseason—any bullpen would benefit from adding an arm like Kimbrel’s. Currently sitting in first place in the NL Central, the 39-31 Cubs will welcome the stability, debth, and experience that Kimbrel should provide.
As of now, reports that Kimbrel’s stuff has looked as good as ever in workouts are the only basis upon which to evaluate Kimbrel’s readiness, but the coming days will give scouts and fans alike their first look at Kimbrel’s dynamic stuff since last October. Needless to say, the intensity of game action—even in the minor leagues—is a far cry from the private showcases that Kimbrel conducted during his free agency, and a nearly eight-month hiatus from affiliated games will surely require some time to readjust to the grind of a Major-League season. With that in mind, though, the Cubs can look forward to the impending addition of an elite bullpen arm as the race for playoff position intensifies.
Yankees Option Clint Frazier
The Yankees have optioned outfielder Clint Frazier to Triple-A, tweets Kristie Ackert of the NY Daily News. Frazier’s demotion will clear a spot on the active roster for the newly-acquired Edwin Encarnacion.
The demotion represents the continuation of a rocky Yankees stint for the 24-year-old Frazier, who has long been the victim of roster crunch despite adequate performance at the MLB level. To be sure, Frazier has not disappointed in his MLB career, which has spanned parts of three seasons: his career OPS sits at a tidy .793, including a career-best .855 this season. His outfield defense has certainly lagged behind the bat, but defensive struggles are not uncommon for young outfielders, and Frazier has demonstrated that his bat-first profile can play at the Major League level.
Despite that promise, Frazier has managed to appear in just 106 MLB games since debuting in 2017. In years past, Frazier has been blocked by the Yankees’ prolific outfielders, but the team’s injury woes have allowed Frazier to receive 186 ABs in 2019. At this point, though, it appears that time is running out on that expanded opportunity.
The acquisition of Encarnacion, coupled with the impending return of outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, has made it clear that Frazier’s opportunities with the big league club will be even further limited for the remainder of the season. With Encarnacion’s addition to the lineup, it appears that the most likely lineup configurations will feature Stanton and Judge joining Aaron Hicks in the outfield, leaving Frazier without a spot in the starting nine.
With that in mind, it would appear that Frazier’s best chance to catch on in the Bronx would come as a depth outfielder; however, a player with Frazier’s combination of youth, performance, and prospect pedigree would perhaps provide more value to the contending Yankees as a trade chip, especially considering the presence of Brett Gardner and Cameron Maybin, each of whom has provided serviceable—if unspectacular—outfield production in the absence of the Bombers’ stars.
As a result of his limited opportunities, Frazier has often been the subject of trade discussions, a trend that will no doubt continue given the Yankees’ need for—and interest in—starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer, and Zack Wheeler have all been linked to the Yankees, and Detroit’s Matt Boyd has also drawn attention as a trade candidate. Of course, it remains to be seen just how much the Yankees could fetch for Frazier, but it seems that he could be a key piece in a trade to bolster the rotation. Of course, there’s no indication that Frazier’s demotion is the precursor to such a move, but speculation will certainly abound as trade season approaches.