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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After surprising many by earning a wild card slot and advancing to the NLDS last season, the Diamondbacks will juggle a large arbitration class and several key free agent decisions while trying to return to the postseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Arizona Diamondbacks Offseason Page | Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll Information]

It only took one offseason for first-year GM Mike Hazen to get his team back on the winning track, though in fairness to the former Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart-led front office, the 2017 D’Backs were blessed with much better health and far more breakout performances than the unfortunate 2016 squad.  Since the team is now perhaps a bit ahead of schedule in terms of returning to contention, however, Hazen now faces an interesting offseason of trying to fill various roster holes while still keeping the payroll in check.

The Diamondbacks project to owe just over $114MM to 19 players next year (the five guaranteed deals and the whopping 14-player arbitration class), and that number rises to the $120MM range if you factor in the key pre-arb players who will certainly be on next year’s team.  While some money could be saved via non-tenders, the D’Backs still project to have the largest Opening Day payroll in the franchise history.  There isn’t going to be much, if any, of a payroll increase, according to team president Derrick Hall, who also recently stated that the D’Backs will “have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”

With this in mind, it doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a reunion with J.D. Martinez, especially given Martinez’s reported asking price of a staggering $210MM.  Team management hasn’t closed the door on the chances of Martinez returning, though even if he and agent Scott Boras settle for “only” the six years and $150MM projected by MLBTR, that will leave the D’Backs committing well over half their payroll to just two players: Martinez and Zack Greinke.  And that doesn’t even factor in possible extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, as the star first baseman is only controlled through the 2019 season.

So, how could Hazen and company “get creative” in finding a way to bring Martinez back?  The three cited non-tender candidates would account for $4MM, though more money could be saved in that department if Shelby Miller or Randall Delgado were also non-tendered.  The D’Backs would have to be pessimistic about Miller’s recovery from Tommy John surgery or Delgado’s flexor strain to consider dumping either pitcher, though as Welington Castillo could tell you, Arizona isn’t shy about making surprising non-tender calls.

Other possibilities include shopping Patrick Corbin or A.J. Pollock, both of whom are free agents after the 2018 season.  Pollock missed virtually all of 2016 due to a fractured elbow and was limited to only 112 games in 2017 due to groin and quad injuries, though he was still an above-average run creator and center field defender last season.  Several teams looking for center field help would have interest in Pollock if he was made available, though given the superstar ceiling he exhibited in 2015, Arizona probably sees a healthy Pollock as a way to help fill the offensive hole left behind if Martinez departs.

After a bullpen demotion in 2016, Corbin re-established himself as a starter with a solid 3.0 fWAR season, posting a 4.03 ERA over 189 2/3 innings.  He’d be a good trade chip to teams looking to add pitching, and the Diamondbacks can potentially afford to part with Corbin given how the rest of their rotation emerged as a strength last year.  Even without Corbin, the Snakes would still have a nice core of Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Zack Godley, with Miller scheduled for a midseason return and prospects Anthony Banda and Taylor Clarke knocking on the door to battle for the fifth starter’s job.  A low-cost veteran could also be brought in if the D’Backs prefer Banda and Clarke as Triple-A depth to start the year.

Of course, the boldest move would be to trade Greinke, who just turned 34 in October and is still owed $138.5MM over the next four years.  Greinke rebounded from a disappointing 2016 to display his usual excellent form last season.  While the D’Backs are certainly more comfortable paying Greinke that much if he pitches like an ace, the fact that he accounts for such a significant portion of the payroll means that the team has to at least keep an eye out for trade possibilities.  (Greinke has some control over his destiny in the form of a 15-team no-trade clause.)  The D’Backs were reportedly trying to unload all of Greinke’s contract during trade talks in the summer of 2016; this still seems like a long shot now, though Greinke’s strong year will aid in getting more of his salary off Arizona’s books.

Losing Greinke rather than Corbin is obviously a much bigger blow to the rotation, though if a Greinke trade did become a reality, the D’Backs could still shop for more pitching.  Consider that MLBTR projects Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb to find free agent deals this winter that combined won’t match what Greinke will earn over the next four seasons.  Dealing Greinke and then signing Lynn or Cobb would be a downgrade at the front of the rotation but a major dose of payroll relief.

(Obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention: the D’Backs will certainly join every other team in baseball in trying to gain the attention of the Japanese superstar if and when the bidding begins on Ohtani’s services.  It’s probably safe to categorize the Diamondbacks as a less-likely candidate to sign Ohtani, though they have been in the mix for high-profile Japanese players in the past.)

Turning to the relief side of the pitching equation, Arizona has some holes to fill with closer Fernando Rodney, Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez all hitting free agency.  None of this trio would be particularly expensive to re-sign if the D’Backs simply wanted to get the band back together, though some upgrading will be necessary depending on what happens with the likes of Hoover or McFarland in arbitration.  Archie Bradley could potentially take over the closer’s job from the somewhat shaky Rodney, though the team may feel he is more valuable as a multi-inning pitcher who can be deployed at any point in a game.  Given their other needs and lack of payroll flexibility, expect the D’Backs to again target low-cost relief signings in the hopes of succeeding as they did with Rodney, De La Rosa, and Hoover last offseason.

Speaking of winning signings, Chris Iannetta more than delivered on his one-year, $1.5MM deal from a winter ago, as he hit .254/.354/.511 with 17 homers over 316 plate appearances.  Arizona could try to re-sign Iannetta, or perhaps look to take advantage of what could be a somewhat quiet free agent catching market.  The Rockies are the only contender with a clear need behind the plate, with the Nationals, Athletics, and White Sox all speculative candidates to look for catching help.  With Jonathan Lucroy, Alex Avila, and Castillo as the big names on the market, a relative lack of suitors could bring one of these catchers into the Diamondbacks’ price range, or at least allow Iannetta to be re-signed on another relatively inexpensive deal.  Castillo probably isn’t a candidate given that the D’Backs just parted ways with him last offseason, though Lucroy or Avila could add more pop from the catcher position if the Snakes don’t feel Iannetta can replicate his 2017 numbers.

Looking elsewhere around the diamond, the D’Backs are set at first base (Goldschmidt), third base (Jake Lamb), center field (Pollock), and right field (David Peralta).  Yasmany Tomas is still penciled in as the left fielder, though he was plagued by injuries in 2017 and he has yet to show much consistency at the plate over his three-year MLB career.  Socrates Brito looks like an interesting fourth outfielder candidate who could earn more playing time as Tomas’ late-game defensive replacement or even platoon partner.  A Pollock trade would obviously shake things up considerably in the outfield; depending on the return in that deal, the D’Backs would then be in the market for center field help, perhaps a veteran like Cameron Maybin or Jarrod Dyson.

The D’Backs are also more than set in the middle infield in terms of sheer numbers, though they’ll be hoping for more production at the plate.  Ketel Marte and Brandon Drury are the respective favorites at shortstop and second base, with Nick Ahmed also in the mix at short and Chris Owings available at both positions in his multi-position utility role.  Veteran Daniel Descalso, whose 2018 option has already been exercised by the D’Backs, will also be back in a utilityman role.

This surplus of infielders capable of playing multiple positions makes the D’Backs a good trade partner for teams looking for infield help, such as the Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers, Red Sox, Rays, Mets, and Giants.  No trade is likely to approach the scope of the Jean Segura deal from a year ago unless an infielder is included as part of a larger trade package, though the Snakes can certainly address at least one need depending on which infielder is traded.  Drury and Owings have the most trade value but are also the two the D’Backs would probably most like to keep, particularly since Lamb still needs to be spelled against left-handed pitching.

This is just my speculation, but Lamb could also be a trade chip if Arizona is looking for players that could bring back a decent return.  The 27-year-old has delivered a lot of pop over the last two seasons, though he also has some significant flaws — an inability to hit southpaws, below-average third base defense, and a tendency to fade after the All-Star break.  Lamb is arb-eligible for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2020, so while the Snakes would miss his power, they could deal Lamb to address another need and then look for a third base alternative (or move Drury to the hot corner).  Speculating further, the D’Backs could also try packaging Lamb and Tomas as a way of getting at least some of Tomas’ contract off the books.

Hazen decided against cleaning house in his first offseason as Arizona’s GM, and his relatively quiet winter was rewarded by a postseason trip.  A busier offseason seems to be on the horizon now, however, as while Hazen is still looking to better position the team for the future, there is more pressure to win in the aftermath of 2017’s good results.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Conforto, Marlins

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The Nationals have yet to hold any extension discussions with stars Bryce Harper or Anthony Rendon, agent Scott Boras told reporters at the GM Meetings on Wednesday (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Asked whether there’d be any talk about a deal for Harper before he reaches free agency next winter, Boras suggested that the matter is presently up to the Nationals. GM Mike Rizzo told the New York Post’s Joel Sherman yesterday that he’d be “surprised” if there were no extension talks with Harper this winter, though as Janes points out, those types of negotiations typically occur later in the offseason.

A bit more from the division…

  • With both Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle under team control next season, the Nationals are less inclined to pursue top-tier free agent relievers, Janes writes in a second piece. Rizzo expressed confidence in that duo and offered a generally encouraging review of his relief corps overall, health permitting. Injury concerns are present, though, as Janes notes; both Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley were heavily limited by arm troubles in 2017. As such Rizzo indicated that it’s possible his team will pursue some right-handed bullpen help this offseason. Janes runs down several options that Nats fans will want to check out, and she also notes that Matt Albers may ultimately end up elsewhere as he cashes in on a career year.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson strongly downplayed the notion of signing an outfielder upon leaving the GM Meetings, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. Alderson indicated that a player that can handle some outfield as well as first base, or even just a pure first baseman are considerations, however. As Newsday’s Marc Carig tweets, that effectively points to regular center field work for Juan Lagares in 2018. Per Carig, the Mets have received trade interest in Lagares in the past and shown little inclination to move him. Of note, Carig also tweets that the Mets consider Jay Bruce versatile enough to handle both the outfield and first base, so a reunion remains on the table.
  • Michael Conforto’s agents tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that their client has received “excellent” medical updates from the surgeons that performed his shoulder operation thus far in his recovery. The young Mets oufielder is expected to be swinging a bat by late January and should be ready for Spring Training, as things presently stand.
  • Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel spoke to Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill about the team’s need for rotation help. Adding starting pitching is reportedly a priority for the Fish even as they look to pare down payroll by roughly $50MM and market several of their biggest stars, including Giancarlo Stanton, in trades. Of course, as Hill alluded to, the composition of the returns on their trades could well help to satisfy that priority. “We know we need to get better,” Hill said of his team’s starting pitching options.“Some of the trades may dictate what that looks like, what shape or form that looks like.” Hill also indicated that the Marlins could look at smaller trades and waiver claims as a means of adding additional options.

Pirates Part Ways With Director Of Latin American Scouting Following MLB Investigation

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The Pirates announced on Wednesday that they will not renew the contract of director of Latin American scouting Rene Gayo following a league investigation into alleged rules violations against Gayo. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Gayo would be dismissed, noting that several years ago, he accepted kickback payments from a team in the Mexican Summer League as compensation for the sale of “at least one player to the Pirates,” per Rosenthal.

In a press release announcing that Gayo’s contract would not be renewed, Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington offered the following statement:

“We had been apprised of Major League Baseball’s investigation into alleged Rules violations committed by Rene during his tenure with the Pirates and the fact that MLB intends to discipline Rene as a result of those violations. Other than confirming our profound disappointment in the breach of trust that was the subject of MLB’s investigation, we will have no further comment on the investigation or MLB’s intended discipline.”

It’s not clear exactly what form of punishment the league will impose on Gayo, though Rosenthal notes that the Pirates organization will not be penalized for Gayo’s actions. The Pirates, Huntington added in the press release, will begin an “exhaustive” search for a replacement.

Mariners Acquire Ryon Healy

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The Mariners announced that they’ve acquired first baseman Ryon Healy from the division-rival Athletics in exchange for right-hander Emilio Pagan and minor league infielder Alexander Campos.

Ryon Healy | Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto wasted little time in making his first significant move of the offseason, as Healy should now vault to the top of the Mariners’ depth chart at first base. Healy’s name has been oft-suggested as a trade candidate with the emergence of corner infielders Matt Chapman and Matt Olson in Oakland. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported on multiple occasions that the A’s would prefer to shift slugging left fielder Khris Davis to DH, and the move of Healy to Seattle allows Oakland to do just that. The A’s are reportedly on the hunt for a controllable, right-handed-hitting outfielder this offseason, and there’s now a more clear vacancy for them in left field.

That, of course, is not to downplay the value of Healy, who comes to the Mariners with another five years of team control. The 25-year-old has belted 38 home runs through his first 888 plate appearances (221 games) with the A’s from the 2016-17 seasons. Healy hasn’t shown much plate discipline to go along with that pop (3.9 percent walk rate), but his overall .282/.313/.475 batting line is solid — especially considering the fact that he’s played half of his games in the spacious Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

[Related: Updated Oakland Athletics Depth Chart and Seattle Mariners Depth Chart]

While Healy originally came to the Majors as a third baseman, he quickly moved across the diamond to first base last season in Oakland after posting poor defensive ratings at the hot corner. He’s only played 307 innings of first base in the Majors, though Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both peg him at about a run better than average there. Obviously, time will tell whether he’s capable of playing a plus first base over the course of a full season, but the Mariners typically place a premium on defense, so it seems that they’re confident in Healy’s ability to do so for the time being. (Designated hitter Nelson Cruz will be a free agent after this season, so Healy could theoretically slide into that spot next year if his glovework proves to be sub-par.)

“Ryon brings a power bat to our line-up at first base, while providing the flexibility to play third base,” said Dipoto in a statement announcing the move. “He adds to a growing core of productive young players who impact our present and future.”

The move has further ramifications for the Mariners, who have been linked to both Carlos Santana and Yonder Alonso early in the offseason but now seem largely set at first base. The move also further blocks Dan Vogelbach’s path to regular big league playing time, though the 25-year-old still has a minor league option remaining and can also factor in as a bat off the bench and/or a part-time first baseman and DH himself.

Looking to the Atheltics’ side of the equation, they’ll not only free up a spot for the addition of a new left fielder, they’ll add an intriguing big league setup option to their bullpen in the form of Pagan. Set to turn 27 next May, Pagan logged a 3.22 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 in 50 1/3 innings with the Mariners in 2016 — his rookie season.

Those K/BB numbers are fairly jaw-dropping, though Pagan’s value last season was curbed by his susceptibility to home runs. While only 9.5 percent of his fly-balls left the yard for homers (well below the league average), Pagan is such an extreme fly-ball pitcher (22.3 percent ground-ball rate, 56.9 percent fly-ball rate) that he still yielded an average of 1.25 homers per nine innings pitched. Pagan has been a pronounced fly-ball pitcher throughout his minor league tenure, though never quite to that extreme, so it’s possible that he could cut back on his home run tendencies a bit moving forward.

Because Pagan didn’t even make his big league debut until midway through the 2017 season, he fell shy of a full year of service time. That gives Oakland six years of control over him if he can indeed settle in as a regular in their bullpen. He also has two minor league options remaining, so the A’s can freely shuttle him back to Triple-A if he needs additional development time.

As for Campos, the 17-year-old shortstop was rated as the No. 15 prospect in Seattle’s farm system per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis. Campos signed for a $575K bonus with the Mariners in July 2016 and went on to bat .290/.413/.367 through 254 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League this past season. Callis and Mayo praise his above-average speed and “advanced defensive skill set” in noting that while he’s a long ways from the Majors, he profiles as at least a reserve player with the possibility to grow into more as he continues to add strength and develop his offensive game.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Considering Ian Kinsler, Neil Walker, Zack Cozart

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The Angels have had “extensive” internal discussions about the possibility of acquiring Ian Kinsler from the Tigers, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. While Fenech notes that it’s not yet clear if the two sides have opened negotiations this offseason, he adds that the Halos’ interest in Kinsler dates back to late last season.

While Kinsler is certainly a logical target for any club in need of a second baseman, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register casts some doubt onto how seriously they’ll actually pursue a trade for the 35-year-old (Twitter link). Fletcher points out that Kinsler is probably a genuine consideration, it’s unlikely that he sits atop the Halos’ list of targets due to the fact that he’s a right-handed bat and would only represent a one-year solution.

Two players that also appear to be on the Angels’ list of targets are free agents Neil Walker and Zack Cozart, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). As Crasnick notes, though, it’s not clear if Cozart would be willing to move off of shortstop. He’s also a right-handed bat, though perhaps the Angels would live with that in order to have a defensively gifted middle-infield duo of Andrelton Simmons and Cozart for the foreseeable future.

Kinsler had a down year at the plate in 2017, hitting .236/.313/.412 in 613 plate appearances. Though his average, OBP and slugging marks all fell off considerably from a superlative 2016 season (.288/.348/.484), Kinsler still connected on 22 homers this past season and exhibited other encouraging signs.

For starters, the nine percent walk rate Kinsler logged in 2017 was his highest since the 2011 season, and his 14 percent strikeout rate was not only an improvement over the ’16 campaign but also tied for the 27th-lowest mark among qualified big league hitters. Kinsler’s 37 percent hard-contact rate was the highest mark of his career as well, but despite the uptick in hard-hit balls his BABIP plummeted to .244. Granted, some of that is attributable to a career-worst 14.4 percent infield fly rate, but the rest of his batted-ball profile suggests that Kinsler could be due for some better fortune in 2018. On the defensive side of the coin, Kinsler remains an excellent option and one of the more underrated defensive players in all of baseball, regardless of position.

Walker, 32, is the most obvious fit on the free-agent market. The switch-hitting second baseman would add the lineup balance that the Angels seem to crave, and he’s been an above-average hitter and steady defender at second base throughout his big league career. The limited number of teams aggressively pursuing second base upgrades and some recent durability issues could suppress Walker’s price point as well; we pegged him for a two-year deal worth $11MM per year on our top 50 free agent list, and while a third year is possible, it’d be a genuine surprise to Walker command anything longer than that.

Cozart is perhaps the most intriguing option of the bunch. The longtime Reds shortstop had a breakout season at the plate in his age-32 season, batting a ridiculous .297/.385/.548 with 24 homers in just 507 trips to the plate. Durability is a very real knock on Cozart, who hasn’t played more than 122 games in a season since 2014 due to a torn knee ligament (2014) and myriad hamstring and quadriceps issues across the past two seasons.

There are also skeptics when it comes to Cozart’s age-32 breakout, but even if his bat settles in at the .271/.340/.480 (115 OPS+) that he’s averaged across the past three seasons, that above-average output and Cozart’s strong glovework would make him an immensely valuable asset. As Crasnick alludes to, however, Cozart is a sterling defensive shortstop and it’s not known if he’d be willing to change positions to better position himself on the open market.

Regardless of the order of their preferences, it seems clear that the Halos are likely to add a second base upgrade this winter. The position is an easily identifiable area of need, as Angels second basemen collectively posted a ghastly .206/.274/.327 batting line in 2017, making them one of the two least-productive second base units in all of Major League Baseball. (The Rangers, weighed down by a dismal season from Rougned Odor, struggled similarly.)

In addition to the options listed by Fenech and Crasnick, the trade market contains options such as Dee Gordon and Cesar Hernandez, as well as more speculative candidates like Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Villar and Joe Panik (to name only a few).

Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer Win Cy Young Awards

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Indians ace Corey Kluber and Nationals ace Max Scherzer have been named the Cy Young Award winners in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced tonight. Scherzer has now won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and three total in his career after receiving 27 of the 30 first-place votes. (Clayton Kershaw received the other three first-place votes.) It’s the second AL Cy Young nod for Kluber, who won in even more convincing fashion with 28 of 30 first-place votes. (Chris Sale received the other two first-place votes in the AL.)

Corey Kluber | Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Kluber, who also took home the award back in 2014, rode a blistering hot finish to his second career Cy Young honor. The 31-year-old missed nearly all of May after going on the DL early that month with a lower back strain. At the time of Kluber’s DL placement, he carried a 5.06 ERA through his first six appearances on the season.

The Kluber of old resurfaced upon returning from injury, though. In his first appearance upon activation, Kluber fired six innings of shutout ball with two hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts. From that point forth, he went on an otherworldly hot streak, pitching to an immaculate 1.62 ERA with a 224-to-23 K/BB ratio that looked more like something one would see in MLB: The Show than in real life. All told, Kluber wrapped up his season with an AL-best 2.25 ERA through 203 2/3 innings. Kluber also led the American League in complete games (five), shutouts (three) and walks per nine innings (1.6) while averaging 10.3 punchouts per nine frames as well.

Sale took not only the other two first-place votes but 28 second-place votes, meaning that he and Kluber were first or second on all 30 ballots. Luis Severino finished a distant third place, while Carlos Carrasco, Justin Verlander, Craig Kimbrel, Ervin Santana and Marcus Stroman rounded out the ballot.

Max Scherzer | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

As for Scherzer, the 33-year-old topped 200 innings for the fifth consecutive season and led the National League in strikeouts for the second consecutive year. His gaudy 2.51 ERA and 12.0 K/9 rates were both career-bests, and he’s now made at least 30 starts in the past nine seasons after taking the hill 31 times this season.

Unlike Kluber, Scherzer was dominant from day one in 2017. Remarkably, there was only one point throughout the entire season where Scherzer’s ERA crept above 3.00; on May 20, he yielded three runs in five innings to bump his ERA to 3.02. From that point forward, Scherzer was virtually unhittable, posting a 2.30 ERA over his final 141 innings and at one point whiffing at least 10 hitters in six straight outings.

Kershaw received 25 of the 30 second-place votes, while Zack Greinke and Scherzer’s teammate, Stephen Strasburg, each took home a second-place vote as well. Strasburg wound up finishing in third place, with Greinke taking fourth and Kenley Jansen landing fifth overall in the balloting. Yet another Nats starter Gio Gonzalez, came in sixth place overall, giving the Nats three of the top six in the NL. Robbie Ray, Jacob deGrom, Jimmy Nelson and Alex Wood each collected an odd fourth- or fifth-place vote here and there, rounding out the ballot in that order.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Wednesday

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The Giancarlo Stanton rumor mill was churning yesterday as teams jockey for position with the Marlins — and, perhaps, with Stanton himself, who can veto any trade. At the end of the day, though, it seemed there was no greater clarity as to where he might be dealt and when a trade might go down.

We’ll use this post to track any new developments today …

  • MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that teams that have spoken to the Marlins have informed them that they feel the 10 years and $295MM on Stanton’s deal is a rough approximation of his market value (all Twitter links). In other words, other clubs don’t perceive there to be much, if any, surplus value on Stanton’s deal. As such, the Marlins will have to pay down a notable portion of the deal to also extract premium prospects from a potential trade partner. One exec suggested that Miami would need to pay as much as $5MM annually in order to receive good prospect value. Morosi notes that the Cardinals and Marlins once again discussed trade concepts today.
  • The Marlins initiated a brief conversation with the Yankees regarding Stanton, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Yankees aren’t considered a serious suitor, though, and the Yankees simply said they’d be open to hearing what the Marlins had in mind, perhaps as a matter of sheer due diligence. Both Yankees GM Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner have publicly stated a desire to dip under the $197MM luxury tax barrier, and Stanton’s $25MM annual salary would obviously get in the way of that goal.

Earlier Updates

  • Marlins CEO Derek Jeter says he has not yet spoken with Stanton, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald was among those to report on Twitter. “If there’s a reason to call him, I’ll call him,” said Jeter. The new Marlins boss did not commit to dealing Stanton and noted that such a move would be complicated, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. But Jeter also suggested that the team cannot continue operating in the same manner financially as it did under prior ownership.
  • Of course, president of baseball operations Michael Hill sat down with Stanton and says he has a sense of what the slugger is interested in. He’s also running point on Stanton talks with other teams. Hill tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he is putting the onus on suitors to come forward with some information on what they are willing to do to land Stanton. “Until I know where you’re at on the contract, the money, all that stuff, I can’t engage,” Hill said of his rival executives.
  • Rosenthal said that eight teams had engaged on Stanton to this point. Six of those are fairly serious pursuers, according to a report from Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
  • There’s “little momentum” regarding Stanton between the Dodgers and Marlins, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Of course, the most notable point at this stage seems to be that the Dodgers are involved at all. Los Angeles seems like a solid fit for Stanton, though it’s also not difficult to imagine the organization preferring not to tie up such a significant portion of its payroll in one contract.
  • John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle ran down the latest on Stanton from the Giants’ perspective. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch did the same with regard to the Cardinals. And WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford explained why he still thinks the Red Sox could be in Stanton (or another superstar hitter) despite some indications to the contrary.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A lengthy rebuild for the Royals culminated in consecutive World Series appearances and a 2015 championship, but competitive cycles are an ever-present reality for smaller- and mid-market clubs, and the Kansas City organization now faces what will likely be a franchise-altering offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Danny Duffy, LHP: $60MM through 2021
  • Ian Kennedy, RHP: $49MM through 2020
  • Alex Gordon, OF: $44MM through 2019 (includes $4MM buyout of 2020 mutual option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $43.5MM through 2021
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH: $12MM through 2020 (may opt into arbitration this offseason but is unlikely to do so)
  • Jason Hammel, RHP: $11MM through 2018 (includes $2MM buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Joakim Soria, RHP: $10MM through 2018 (includes $1MM buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Brandon Moss, 1B/DH: $8.25MM through 2018 (includes $1MM buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Drew Butera, C: $2.3MM through 2018

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Obligations

Free Agents

[Kansas City Royals depth chart | Kansas City Royals payroll outlook]

A year ago at this time, I noted that the Royals would be facing some tough decisions on their longtime core of Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis. With each of that group set to hit free agency after the 2017 campaign, it was a virtual impossibility that the Royals could retain them all. Kansas City took definitive action with two of the six, locking Duffy up on a franchise-record deal for a pitcher while trading Davis to the Cubs in the hope that former super-prospect Jorge Soler could blossom in a new setting. (Thus far, it has not worked.)

The other four remained with the club as GM Dayton Moore and his staff eyed one more run at a postseason berth with the core that brought baseball back to life in K.C. The Royals were in possession of a Wild Card spot at the trade deadline and had just watched the former first-place Twins drop six of seven games. Moore acted decisively, operating as a buyer rather than selling off Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas for prospects.

The GM has drawn his share of flak for that, but he’d almost certainly have been widely criticized for selling while in possession of a playoff spot had he moved his veteran core. That’d send an awful message to fans, and the city would’ve been left wondering what might’ve been when the team plummeted in the standings. That outcome, unfortunately, came to fruition for the Royals in spite of acquiring Melky Cabrera, Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer. While Cabrera and Cahill have departed for free agency, both Maurer and Buchter can remain on hand as longer-term pieces in the bullpen.

In addition to whatever value Maurer and Buchter provide in future seasons, Kansas City will quite likely recoup three picks in the 30 to 35 range of next year’s draft if Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas all sign elsewhere. That will give them one of the largest bonus pools to work with in the amateur draft — a nice consolation prize and a good start on restocking a farm system that was depleted by trades for Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist and others over the course of the Royals’ impressive run of success.

While it can’t be entirely ruled out that the Royals bring back one of their departing stars — they’re reportedly most focused on Hosmer and Moustakas — it’s also difficult to see how they’d fit into a crowded payroll picture. Agent Scott Boras figures to pitch owner David Glass on the importance of both Hosmer and Moustakas not only to the on-field unit but also to the clubhouse and to the fanbase. Whether that argument carries weight with ownership remains to be seen.

Hosmer is a polarizing free agent due to his inconsistencies at the plate and the disconnect between scouts’ positive valuation of his defense and his substandard defensive metrics. He has at times been one of the better-looking hitters in the American League but has also yet to string together consecutive excellent seasons. He won his fourth Gold Glove this season but also posted one of the worst Defensive Runs Saved totals of any first baseman.

The Royals are said to love Hosmer, though, and he’s been one of the faces of the franchise as the team has returned to prominence in the AL. It’s possible that ownership ultimately views him as a special exception and fits him into the payroll, though doing so would eat up the majority of the Royals’ resources while only addressing one spot on a roster that is teeming with question marks.

Recent reports have suggested that the Royals are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances of retaining any of that trio, though. If it ultimately proves that all three sign elsewhere, it’d open a number of doors for Moore and his staff as they ask themselves whether to take aim at another playoff pursuit in 2018 or to set their sights on a return to contention a couple of years down the line.

The Royals have little in the way of short-term assets that they could sell off for prospects. Late-inning relievers Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria would appeal to contenders, but both are fairly expensive and come with just one year of control. (Soria technically has two, but the second year is a mutual option, which is almost never exercised by both parties.) Brandon Moss and Jason Hammel each struggled in the first season of their respective two-year deals in 2017; Moss surely comes with negative trade value, while the best the Royals may be able to hope with regard to Hammel is that his 180 innings and respectable FIP convince a competitor to take a decent chunk of his salary off their hands.

If Kansas City deems, then, that a full rebuild is necessary, it’d have to face the tough scenarios of marketing longer-term assets in trades. Left-hander Danny Duffy, who has four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, would be one of the top starting pitchers on the trade market and could fetch multiple quality prospects and/or an MLB-ready young talent. Few teams are aggressively seeking starting catchers, but dangling the remaining four years of Perez’s contract would cause some teams to rethink their catching situations. And late-blooming star Whit Merrifield, controlled all the way through 2022, would be of immediate interest to teams in need of infield upgrades.

That said, the American League Central isn’t an intimidating division at present, with both the White Sox and Tigers rebuilding. Rather than a full rebuild, it seems likelier that Kansas City could look to operate similarly to the 2016-17 offseason. Herrera and/or Soria could be marketed as a means of acquiring some young talent and shedding payroll while still largely attempting to field a competitive unit. After all, both Duffy and Perez would come with substantial value whether marketed now, next summer or next offseason. With that in mind, the Royals may well look to shorter-term solutions at affordable rates as they wait for Moss, Hammel and albatross deals for Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon to come off the books.

In the outfield, the Royals will have little choice but to hope that Gordon can somewhat return to form in the third season of a four-year, $72MM contract that has proven disastrous thus far. Jorge Bonifacio’s .255/.320/.432 output and 17 homers this past season could get him a full season’s worth of at-bats in right field, and the Royals at some point likely feel they need to see what they have in Jorge Soler — be it as a DH or an outfielder. Paulo Orlando and Terrance Gore remain on the 40-man roster, but at this point there’s little reason to believe that either can hit enough to command regular playing time in the Majors. Bubba Starling represents another 40-man option, but he posted a dismal .303 OBP in 80 games at Triple-A last year. Billy Burns gives Kansas City another option for a reserve role.

All of that is to say, there’s probably room for at least one outfield addition. Cameron Maybin has already been reported as a potential option, and there’s a natural on-paper fit for Jarrod Dyson to return to the Royals as a free agent. If the Royals are willing to spend a bit more, then Carlos Gomez could be brought in to play center field and likely provide more offense than any of the previously mentioned outfield candidates.

The infield is also rife with options but littered with uncertainty. Merrifield will absolutely hold down a starting spot after hitting .288/.324/.460 with 19 homers and a league-leading 34 steals. The rest of the infield is anyone’s guess. Assistant GM J.J. Picollo recently told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that some combination of Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier could man the infield corners in 2018 if neither Hosmer nor Moustakas is retained. Moss will be on hand as a first-base/DH option, unless the Royals can find a taker for his salary (a daunting task in a market with so many left-handed corner bats already available). Young Raul Mondesi Jr. will likely be given the opportunity to prove his mettle at shortstop.

As is the case in the outfield, though, there’s enough uncertainty here that the Royals could add a veteran without completely blocking the paths of all their young but unproven options. Logan Morrison has already stated that it’d be a “dream come true” to play in front of his family for his hometown Royals. The Royals could once again try to wait out the first-base market as they did last winter, hoping to land a bat at a discount rate, as the supply again looks to outstrip the demand for such players.

It’s a similar situation at shortstop; as intriguing as Mondesi may be, it’d be hard not to take a look at Zack Cozart if his market remains in the three-year range. At a certain point, he represents a notable value play even if he “blocks” a shortstop option. Furthermore, Merrifield could theoretically be moved to third base or left field if the team wished to get Mondesi or prospect Nicky Lopez a look at second base.

On the pitching front, the Royals will enter the year with Duffy, Hammel, Kennedy, Jake Junis and Nate Karns penciled into the rotation — at least as things currently stand. Certainly, there’s room for another addition. Junis has yet to log a full big league season, while Karns is returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Duffy, Hammel and Kennedy have all had injuries in recent seasons as well, and no club can expect to navigate a full season with just five starters. Eric Skoglund and Sam Gaviglio are nice depth pieces, but there’s room for the Royals to add either a bounceback candidate or a solid innings eater. Chris Tillman, Clay Buchholz and Brett Anderson are among the rebound candidates available, while Jaime Garcia, Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey and Doug Fister are among the names that could be counted on for some back-of-the-rotation innings.

The bullpen, too, should give the Royals ample room to make some opportunistic additions later in the offseason. It’d be unwise to jump early and beat the market for a top-tier reliever, but there are always a few arms expected to receive hefty multi-year deals that ultimately settle for more reasonable one- and two-year pacts. It’s next to impossible to accurately forecast which arms will be left out in the cold, so to speak, but the Royals’ in-between status heading into the 2018 season likely affords them the luxury of waiting to find out.

Kansas City opened the 2017 season with a franchise-record $143MM payroll and brought that number closer to $150MM by the end of the season. With Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain all potentially departing, it’s hard to imagine owner David Glass green-lighting anything beyond that 2017 Opening Day mark. The Royals currently project to have around $129MM on next year’s books, though potential trades of Herrera, Soria, Hammel or Moss would impact that number. Assuming there’s no exception made for one of the big three free agents, then, Kansas City could have somewhere in $10-20MM worth of available funds to add to the 2018 roster (again, contingent on moving at least one veteran’s contract).

It’s not an enormous amount to play with, but the Royals have made a habit of backloading contracts and effectively utilizing mutual options as an accounting tactic to defer the guaranteed salary on a contract. That strategy could again allow the team to pursue some veterans on two- and three-year commitments this offseason.

The Royals are highly unlikely to enter the 2018 season as any kind of division favorite. However, the fact that they’re in a division with two all-out rebuilders and have their most appealing trade assets controlled for another four years makes a compelling case for Kansas City to sell short-term assets and make mid-range commitments in an effort to hang around in 2018. If that plan fails to pan out, they’ll still be able to fall back on dealing their most palatable chips down the road and embarking on a more aggressive rebuild.

Extending Shohei Ohtani

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If Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani signs with an MLB team, perhaps in the new year, he’ll be limited to a minor league deal.  The most Ohtani could receive is $3.535MM from the Rangers, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press.  The Yankees and Twins are able to offer similar amounts.  The Pirates, Marlins, and Mariners can offer $1.5MM or more.  Everyone else is capped below $1MM, all the way down to the Indians and Rockies at $10K each.

The assumption is that these differences will not matter much to Ohtani, who might be leaving $200MM on the table by attempting to come to MLB now instead of in two years.  He’s already banked millions of dollars from his NPB career, and he would earn the MLB minimum of $545K as a rookie.

It is also true that if Ohtani wants to lock down life-changing money, he would be able to do so with little or no MLB experience.  Ohtani’s team can sign him to an extension at any time, as long as the extension wasn’t discussed as an inducement to sign him in the first place.  Three players have signed extensions with fewer than 30 days of big league service time:

  • The Rays signed Evan Longoria in April 2008 to a six-year, $17.5MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years.  Longoria had six days of MLB service.
  • The Rays signed Matt Moore in December 2011 to a five-year, $14MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years.  Moore had 17 days of big league service.
  • The Astros signed Jonathan Singleton in June 2014 to a five-year, $10MM deal that included three club options, one of which covered a potential free agent year.  Singleton’s extension coincided with his big league promotion, meaning he signed with no big league service.

Ohtani’s NPB experience could stand in for the extensive minor league experience that justified these contract extensions.  I think a team could offer $20-25MM to Ohtani in April without sounding alarm bells at MLB’s offices.  Ohtani’s team would already control him for six years, or even close to seven years if they’re willing to keep him in the minors for a few weeks as the Cubs did with Kris Bryant.  So the incentive for a team to offer an extension would be gaining control over some of Ohtani’s potential free agent years.  One can imagine that the player’s agent would advise against this, but it is a way Ohtani could guarantee himself good money right out of the gate.  It is possible, too, that the agent could attempt to play with the structure established by Longoria, Moore, and Singleton.  For example, Singleton’s contract covered only one potential free agent year, with a club option for $13MM.  What if Ohtani made the same concession, but with an option price of $20MM or more?

Other players, such as Salvador Perez, Chris Archer, and Tim Anderson, signed extensions with service time ranging from 50 to 156 days.  Those deals topped out at Anderson’s $25MM, signed last March.  If Ohtani waits until he has one year of Major League service time, the ceiling on a reasonable extension increases quite a bit.  Four such players — Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons — signed for $40MM or more guaranteed.  Simmons is tops in the one-plus service class, with a seven-year, $58MM deal.  After one decent year in MLB, Ohtani should be able to sign an extension worth $60MM or more.

As for that monster deal that would have been a lock if Ohtani waited until he was a true free agent?  That probably becomes an option if he logs two successful years in the Majors.  Mike Trout signed for $144.5MM over six years, while Buster Posey inked a deal worth $159MM over eight years.  It is entirely conceivable that Ohtani could come to the Majors now and sign a $200MM extension in March of 2020.  Granted, he would need to play like an MLB superstar over the 2018-19 seasons to make that possible.  But to reach those heights in a true MLB free agent bidding war in the 2019-20 offseason, he would have needed to continue at a very high level in NPB anyway.  Viewed in that light, Ohtani’s decision to jump to MLB this winter at perhaps his peak ability doesn’t seem so crazy.

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