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Poll: Will The Rays Trade Chris Archer?

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Even though Rays general manager Erik Neander suggested last week that the team plans to keep its top trade chip, Chris Archer, the right-hander still figures to frequent the rumor mill this offseason. On Saturday, for instance, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Rays may well listen to offers on their priciest veterans, including Archer, this winter. The 29-year-old Archer certainly isn’t expensive – he’s controllable through 2021 at just $33.75MM – but removing his team-friendly contract would nonetheless help the Rays in their quest to cut payroll. Plus, with Boston and New York looking primed to serve as major American League East obstacles in the coming years, it could behoove the Rays to embark on a rebuild in the wake of four straight sub-.500 seasons and try to return to relevance down the road.

Chris Archer

Trading Archer would be a near-term white flag from Tampa Bay, but it would go a long way toward helping the club further beef up its already deep farm system. The hard-throwing workhorse’s presence on the trade market would undoubtedly spark a bidding war, given both his ultra-affordable contract and front-line track record.  Since debuting in 2012, Archer has pitched to a 3.63 ERA/3.46 FIP and notched 9.72 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9. He’s now coming off his third straight 200-inning season, one that saw him overshadow a merely decent ERA (4.07) with career-best marks in K/9 (11.15), BB/9 (2.69) and swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent).

Every team would love to add such an appealing starter, but some aren’t close enough to contention to justify seriously pursuing a trade for him, while others probably don’t have good enough farm systems to come out on top in an Archer sweepstakes. Of last season’s playoff teams, the Twins, Cubs (one of Archer’s ex-organizations) and Rockies stand out as clubs that would benefit the most from acquiring Archer, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of the Astros, Dodgers (led by former Rays GM Andrew Friedman, who traded for Archer in Tampa Bay), Nationals or Yankees attempt to land him. Meanwhile, none of the Brewers, Cardinals, Braves or Phillies qualified for the postseason in 2017, but all of those clubs have above-average systems and are seemingly on the upswing. Those factors, not to mention issues in each of their rotations, would make Archer a reasonable target.

Any talk of an offseason Archer trade will go down as much ado about nothing if the Rays don’t opt for a major rebuild, but as Topkin suggested, it’s at least under consideration. Should the Rays take that extreme route, Archer would shake up a pitching market that includes a couple top-tier free agent starters (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta), with another potentially on the way in Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. For teams that can’t or don’t want to dish out nine-figure contracts to Darvish or Arrieta, and for those that miss out on the highly coveted Ohtani, Archer would make for an enticing alternative via trade.

(Poll link for App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

  • Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani will only be able to sign a minor league deal this offseason if he comes to the majors,  though he could conceivably ink a more lucrative extension early in his MLB tenure. Tim Dierkes examined that possibility in depth.
  • Tim also looked ahead to next year’s class of free agent starters, which could include Clayton Kershaw, and concluded that teams in need of rotation help shouldn’t wait until then to make upgrades.  If Kershaw will remain with the Dodgers, it would leave a fairly unexciting group of available starters, so pitching-needy teams would be better served to strike now.
  • Padres closer Brad Hand figures to draw widespread interest if the team shops him in the coming months. With that in mind, Kyle Downing sought an ideal match for Hand in a potential deal.
  • The latest editions of this year’s Offseason Outlook series focused on the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Royals and Padres.
  • This winter’s Free Agent Profile series (links: 1, 2) kicked off with looks at the pros, cons and markets for center fielder Lorenzo Cain and utilityman Eduardo Nunez.

AL Rumors: Indians, Orioles, Machado, Red Sox

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While it’s unclear if any deals will materialize, a slew of Indians drew trade interest at this month’s general managers meetings, according to Terry Pluto of cleveland.com. Specifically, teams inquired about a few Indians pitchers – including right-handers Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger – as well as catchers Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes. Clubs also approached the Tribe about a couple less heralded members of the organization in outfielder Greg Allen and minor league righty Shane Bieber, Pluto adds. Of those players, it’s clear Carrasco would warrant the largest return, but there’s no reason for the Indians to move him. Conversely, the Tribe would be open to dealing either Perez or Gomes, Pluto suggests, considering the team has high-end prospect Francisco Mejia waiting in the wings behind those two.

More from a pair of other American League cities:

  • The Orioles will wait until later in the offseason to discuss extensions with third baseman Manny Machado and center fielder Adam Jones, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays. Kubatko doesn’t expect an extension for Machado to come to fruition, which isn’t surprising given that he’s primed sign a mega-deal on the open market a year from now. Interestingly, though, Kubatko hears that Machado would prefer to play shortstop instead of third base, which could make a potential trip to free agency all the more intriguing. Machado logged 52 appearances at short between 2015-16 but has otherwise played the hot corner since debuting in 2012.
  • Closer Zach Britton, another high-profile Oriole entering a contract year, likely wouldn’t bring back a great return via trade this offseason, Buster Olney of ESPN.com observes. While the Orioles are open to trading Britton, his lack of team control, high salary (a projected $12.2MM in arbitration) and recent arm problems figure to tamp down his value, Olney writes. Still, whether it’s Britton, Darren O’Day or Brad Brach, Baltimore seems poised to move one of its most established relievers and use the money it saves on much-needed starting pitching help, per Olney.
  • More from Olney, who reports that the Red Sox and three-time World Series-winning manager Tony La Russa discussed having him serve as rookie skipper Alex Cora’s bench coach. Instead, Boston hired La Russa as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and replaced previous bench coach Gary DiSarcina with Ron Roenicke. La Russa, 73, hasn’t been part of a coaching staff since he managed the Cardinals to a title in 2011.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/17

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The latest minor moves from around the game:

  • The Tigers have signed corner infielder Edwin Espinal to a minor league contract, the player announced on Instagram (h/t: Evan Woodbery of MLive.com, on Twitter). Detroit’s the second major league organization for the 23-year-old Espinal, who spent the first seven seasons of his pro career with the Pirates. A .279/.323/.389 hitter in 2,435 lifetime minor league plate appearances, Espinal reached the Triple-A level for the first time in 2017 and batted .323/.341/.369 with no home runs across 135 PAs. He shined more as a defensive first baseman, taking home a Gold Glove Award for his work at the minors’ two highest levels.

Morosi’s Latest: Rangers, Cards, Rockies, Phillies

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A few early morning free agent rumors from Jon Morosi of MLB.com…

  • The Rangers “have had preliminary contact” with right-hander Alex Cobb’s representatives, Morosi writes. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported earlier this month that the starter-needy Rangers covet Cobb, one of the top hurlers on the open market. Cobb returned in earnest from 2015 Tommy John surgery last season to turn in a career-best 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching, with 6.42 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent groundball rate.
  • The Cardinals and Rockies are among teams with interest in reliever Brandon Kintzler, whose experience as a closer has executives wondering if a club will sign him to handle that role, according to Morosi. Both the Cardinals and Rockies need more than ninth-inning help, as each team has seen multiple key relievers hit free agency this month. The 33-year-old Kintzler has overcome a paucity of strikeouts to ride a low-walk, high-grounder combination to success throughout his career, including in a 2017 campaign that saw the righty amass a career-high 29 saves between Minnesota and Washington (28 with the Twins).
  • The Phillies are one of the teams eyeing left-hander Jake McGee, reports Morosi, who notes that the reliever was once teammates with new Philadelphia skipper Gabe Kapler in Tampa Bay. With Colorado in 2017, McGee, 31, posted a 3.61 ERA and logged 9.1 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings. Along the way, he was effective against both righty- and lefty-swingers, the latter of whom had their way against Phillies relievers (.270/.347/.459).

Free Agent Profile: Lorenzo Cain

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Fresh off yet another strong season, longtime Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain ranks as one of the best free agents available in this year’s class.

Pros/Strengths

Since making his major league debut with the Brewers in 2010, Cain has often mixed average or better production at the plate with top-notch defense and quality baserunning, making him one of the game’s most valuable players at his position. Cain held his own in those three facets in 2017 and surpassed the 4.0 fWAR mark for the third time in the past four seasons. Dating back to 2014, his breakout offensive campaign, only 19 position players have logged a higher fWAR than Cain’s 17.9, which puts him in company with the likes of Freddie Freeman (18.1), Ian Kinsler (17.4) and Andrew McCutchen (16.8).

Lorenzo Cain

Defense is perhaps Cain’s greatest strength, evidenced by his lifetime DRS (73) and UZR (53.8) in center. According to those metrics, Cain wasn’t elite in 2017, though he still ranked in the top nine in the league among center fielders in both categories. He placed an even more impressive fifth among all outfielders in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.

On the offensive side, the righty-swinging Cain has been useful against pitchers of either handedness throughout his career. While his .303/.360/.474 line against southpaws easily trumps his .285/.335/.400 output versus righties, the latter has still been good enough for league-average production, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. All told, he has slashed a respectable .290/.342/.421 in 3,051 trips, including a .300/.363/.440 line across a personal-best 645 PAs in 2017. Cain managed to cut his K rate from 19.4 percent in 2016 to a meager 15.5 percent this past season, and has gone down on strikes just 18.6 percent of the time in his career.

Cain’s speed has certainly contributed to his solid offensive numbers, helping him run a lifetime .344 batting average on balls in play (including a .340 mark in 2017) and an infield hit rate of 9.9 percent (league average has hovered in the 6.5 percent range since his MLB debut). Unsurprisingly, the fleet-of-foot Cain finished toward the top of MLB last season in Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric (16th out of 451 qualifiers). Thanks primarily to his wheels, Cain stole 26 of 28 bases in 2017, ranking fifth in the majors in SB percentage (92.9) along the way. Successful base stealing has been the norm for Cain, who has swiped 127 of 152 bags (83.6 percent) during his career.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you’re looking for red flags here, age and injury questions jump to the fore immediately. Cain will turn 32 next April, which will make a long-term deal for him all the more risky, and although he played 155 games last year, he hasn’t been that durable. Cain spent time on the disabled list in 2012, ’13, ’14 and ’16, and last season was the only one to date in which he appeared in more than 140 games.

With Cain’s legs being so integral to his game, it’s certainly fair to wonder just how well he’ll age both offensively and defensively. Speed peaks early, after all, and that’s all the more concerning for a 30-something hitter who brings minimal power and middling patience to the table. Cain did hit 15 home runs in 2017, but his .140 ISO (.131 lifetime) fell well below the .171 league average.

Background

Cain, a Valdosta, Ga., native, became a professional when the Brewers chose him in the 17th round of the 2004 draft. He ultimately racked up just 158 PAs with Milwaukee before the team traded him, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress to the Royals for Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt in a December 2010 blockbuster. During his time in the majors, Cain, a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management, has earned approximately $21.76MM, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Off the field, Cain has been involved with the Variety Children’s Charity of Greater Kansas City. He and his wife, Jenny, have two sons.

Market

Unfortunately for Cain, most of the teams that received bottom-of-the-barrel production from their center fielders in 2017 don’t look like fits for a player who’s on the wrong side of 30. Nevertheless, it appears Cain will price himself out of KC, which will net a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft if he signs with another club for a guaranteed $50MM-plus or a selection after Comp Round B if he gets less. The Giants, Mets and Blue Jays are reportedly eyeing him, while the Mariners and Rangers have also come up as potential matches. Of those teams, the Giants and Mariners need a center fielder the most. The Mets, Blue Jays and Rangers have experienced CFers on hand in Juan Lagares, Kevin Pillar and Delino DeShields, respectively, though Cain is a better all-around player than each of those three.

Expected Contract

MLBTR forecasts a four-year, $70MM payday for Cain, who could push for a pact that rivals the half-decade-long, $82.5MM deal fellow center fielder Dexter Fowler signed with the Cardinals last winter. The fact that Cain’s a year older than Fowler will make a fifth year difficult to obtain, though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Rays, Longoria, Colome, Rangers, Tigers

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As they look to reduce payroll and perhaps rebuild this offseason, the Rays will be open to trading most of their high-paid players – including third baseman and franchise icon Evan Longoria – Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Longoria hasn’t yet reached 10-and-5 status, meaning he doesn’t have full no-trade rights, but the Rays would likely only deal him with his blessing, according to Topkin. The 32-year-old will rake in $13.5MM in 2018 and up to $94MM through 2023, depending on what happens with a club option in the final season of his deal. In addition to Longoria, right-handers Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, catcher Wilson Ramos, outfielder Corey Dickerson, infielder Brad Miller and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria stand out as potential trade candidates, Topkin observes. Colome seems particularly likely to go, Topkin suggests, and has already drawn reported interest from the Cardinals. He’s projected to earn $5.5MM in 2018, his first of three possible arbitration years.

More on Tampa Bay and two other AL clubs:

  • While the Rays may spend the coming months subtracting veterans, there will probably be mutual interest between them and free agent first baseman Mike Napoli, per Topkin. The Florida native continued his power-hitting ways in Texas last season, swatting 29 home runs and posting a .235 ISO, but he still batted an ugly .193/.285/.428 across 485 plate appearances. As a 36-year-old coming off a career-worst campaign, he’ll be in the Rays’ price range.
  • With the Rangers in desperate need of starters, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News lists several bargain free agents who might be worthy of their attention on the open market. Two of those players, Miguel Gonzalez and Miles Mikolas, bring past Rangers experience to the table. Recent Tommy John surgery recipient Michael Pineda, John Lackey and Jhoulys Chacin could also land on the club’s radar, Grant writes.
  • Aside from switch-hitters Victor Martinez and Jeimer Candelario, the Tigers don’t have lefty-capable regulars on their roster at the moment. General manager Al Avila is looking to change that this winter. “We’re very right-handed, so left-handed anything — infield and outfield — would be very handy for us as far as somebody that could help at the Major League level in 2018,” Avila told Jason Beck of MLB.com and other reporters this week. Given that the Tigers are in rebuilding mode, any move(s) they make to balance their lineup will be small, Beck notes.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: FA SPs, Cole, Cain, Jays, Ohtani, Cubs

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This week in baseball blogs:

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

Orioles Interested In Lance Lynn

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The Orioles are interested in free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (Twitter link). Morosi adds that the Orioles slightly prefer fellow righty Alex Cobb, however, thanks to his vast experience in the American League East. Morosi first linked Cobb to the Orioles on Friday.

Either Lynn or Cobb is the third-best established starter on the market behind Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, and signing one of the two second-tier arms would ostensibly be a boon to a Baltimore rotation in dire need of help. Orioles starters placed 27th in the majors in fWAR (5.5) and dead last in ERA (5.70) during the regular season, and with 2017 rotation members Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez now on the open market, the team is on the hunt for multiple starters.

Lynn debuted as a regular in the Cardinals’ rotation in 2012 and has quietly been among the majors’ most consistent workhorses since then. With the exception of 2016, which he missed after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Lynn hasn’t finished with fewer than 29 starts or 175 1/3 innings in any full season. The fastball specialist has also thrived at keeping opposing offenses at bay, evidenced by a 3.37 ERA that ranks tied for 22nd among big league starters since 2012.

The 30-year-old Lynn spun 186 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 2017, though his terrific run prevention came in spite of underwhelming rates in the strikeout (7.39 K/9; down from 8.46 lifetime) and walk (3.77; up from 3.4) departments. A fair amount of Lynn’s success last season was on account of a .244 batting average on balls in play, way down from his .297 career mark, but it wasn’t solely a product of good fortune. Lynn tied with a handful of starters – including National League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer – for 25th out of 94 qualifiers in average exit velocity allowed (85.7 mph). Thanks in part to that, his expected weighted on-base average allowed (.310) was right in line with the .309 wOBA he surrendered.

Considering both Lynn’s track record and the dearth of big-time starters available in free agency, he’s in line to land one of the offseason’s richest contracts. With Lynn having rejected the Cardinals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, signing him would cost Baltimore its third-highest pick in next summer’s draft, which isn’t much of a deterrent in and of itself. But, as much as Lynn could help the O’s rotation in 2018, it’s debatable whether they’d be wise to hand a lucrative long-term deal to him, Cobb or anyone else this winter with core players Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach scheduled to hit free agency next year.

Mariners Acquire Nick Rumbelow

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The Mariners have announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Nick Rumbelow from the Yankees in exchange for a pair of minor league pitchers, left-hander JP Sears and righty Juan Then.

It’s not an earth-shattering trade by any means, but it certainly does have at least one significant implication. The Yankees are facing a significant roster crunch that needs to be resolved by November 20th, which is the deadline to set rosters ahead of the Rule 5 Draft. As Josh Norris of Baseball America points out (subscription required and recommended), the Yankees only had two open spots on the 40-man as of Thursday, and have a number of players worth protecting. That list includes No. 3 overall prospect Gleyber Torres, along with Albert Abreu, Thairo Estrada, Domingo Acevedo and Billy McKinney. Trading Rumbelow, who was added to the 40-man roster on November 6th, doesn’t magically solve the Yankees’ Rule 5 dilemma, but it helps by clearing one more spot.

This is the third trade to go down during the 2017-2018 offseason, and the Mariners have been involved in all three so far. Most recently, Seattle also acquired corner infielder Ryon Healy from the Athletics (link).

[Related: Updated Mariners Depth Chart]

Rumbelow has just 15 2/3 major league innings under his belt, all coming in relief during the 2015 season. The right-hander allowed seven runs and struck out 15 while walking five batters. He began the 2016 season at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre and pitched just one inning before suffering a UCL sprain and ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was subsequently designated for assignment in mid-November. However, it only took 11 1/3 solid minor league innings this past season to convince the Yankees to add him back to the 40-man.

Sears, 21, was an 11th-round pick in this year’s draft out of The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina. The reliever struck out a whopping 49 batters across just 27 2/3 innings across two levels of the lower minors, including 17 innings in A-ball during which he didn’t allow a run.

The 17-year-old Then was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic. Like Sears, his only professional season to date is 2017. The right-hander started 13 games for the Mariners’ Rookie affiliate, posting an excellent 2.64 ERA to go along with 8.22 K/9, 2.20 BB/9 and a 53% ground ball rate.

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