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Rays Extend Brandon Lowe

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TODAY: Tampa Bay has announced the deal. It could top out at $49MM in total value if both options are exercised and all incentives are reached, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported.

YESTERDAY: The Rays have agreed to a six-year, $24MM contract extension with infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The contract contains a pair of club options that would buy out a pair of would-be free-agent seasons as well. Lowe is a client of the Bledsoe Agency.

Brandon Lowe | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Lowe has just 43 games of Major League experience under his belt but is widely regarded as one of the Rays’ most promising prospects. Baseball America rated him as the game’s No. 93 prospect this offseason, while Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs ranked him 46th overall.

The early returns on Lowe in the Major Leagues were relatively promising. The 2015 third-rounder reached the Majors for the first time at the age of 23 and batted .233/.324/.450 with six home runs, six doubles, a pair of triples and two stolen bases (in three attempts). Context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (112) and wRC+ (113) felt his bat was 12 to 13 percent better than that of a league-average hitter when adjusting for league and home park.

Lowe’s 25.6 strikeout rate was likely a bit higher than the Rays would prefer, but he showed power and drew walks at a 10.8 percent clip in his first crack at MLB opposition. That production came on the heels of a sensational .297/.391/.558 slash between Double-A and Triple-A, creating further optimism that Lowe can be an integral part of the Rays moving forward.

Defensively, Lowe has spent the bulk of his career as a second baseman, though he got his feet wet with more than 500 innings of work in the outfield corners last season (between the Majors and minors). Scouting reports have generally projected him as a potentially average defender at second, though he’s considered to be more of a bat-first player.

It’s unusual but not unheard of for teams to lock up players with such minimal MLB experience, and the Rays in particular have done so in past years with both Evan Longoria and Matt Moore. Lowe’s deal will line up identically to the Phillies’ six-year, $24MM deal with Scott Kingery — a contract signed before Kingery even played an MLB game.

There’s certainly risk to committing to a player so early in his professional career, but the $24MM risk is one all the more worth taking for a low-payroll club like the Rays that typically has a great deal of difficulty hanging onto quality players as their arbitration earnings increase. For Lowe, he could potentially have earned more over the course of his three arb seasons — and the option years are sure to be at an affordable rate — but the allure of locking in a sizable guaranteed payday when his first arbitration season is still three years away is understandable. If both of the club options on the deal are ultimately exercised, he’ll reach free agency a few months after his 32nd birthday.

Lowe now joins Kevin Kiermaier as the only Rays players to be guaranteed anything beyond the 2020 season. Charlie Morton, set to earn $15MM in both 2019 and 2020, is the only other player whose contract for the 2020 season is guaranteed at the moment. Of course, given the Rays’ wealth of young talent, it’s quite likely that they’ll explore further extension possibilities between now and Opening Day.

Royals Shift Ian Kennedy To Bullpen

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The Royals announced yesterday that they will utilize veteran right-hander Ian Kennedy as a reliever this year, as Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star was among those to report.

Kennedy, 34, says he’s up for the switch despite having made only a pair of prior relief appearances way back in 2008-09. In the intervening nine seasons, Kennedy has taken the ball to open 277 MLB contests.

Last year was the first season since 2009 in which Kennedy failed to make thirty starts. It also represented a confirmation of his struggles from the season prior. In total, over his past 273 2/3 innings, Kennedy has mustered only a 5.06 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 1.8 HR/9.

Kennedy’s still throwing as hard as before and appears to be getting similar movement on his pitches, but the league has clearly figured him out. His swinging-strike rate has dwindled down to 8.2% and opposing hitters have made hard contact on about four in ten balls in play over the past two seasons.

Frankly, these developments aren’t altogether surprising for a hurler who hit the 2015-16 market as a highly durable but rarely dominant middle/back-of-the-rotation arm. Kennedy was an accomplished hurler and drew mid-3 ERA equivalency grades from xFIP and SIERA in the two seasons before he reached free agency. Still, he had long battled home run problems that led to inconsistent results despite generally excellent K/BB numbers.

Even in that very different market setting — several other pitchers secured very large deals that winter with less-than-dominant track records — Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM contract was surprising. As former MLBTR scribe Charlie Wilmoth put it, “the financial outlay of the deal looks rather generous even before considering the opt-out.” Entering the offseason, we had predicted four years and $52MM.

The Kansas City organization knew the risks, but understandably wanted maximize its chances of winning another World Series after capturing a crown in a magical 2015 season. Kennedy did manage nearly two hundred innings of 3.68 ERA ball in the first year of his deal, but the peripherals told a different story.

Now, the Royals are paying what’s left of the tab for doubling down on a historic contention window. Kennedy accounts for two hefty line items: $16.5MM salaries in 2019 and 2020.

Looking at the present roster, bumping Kennedy will somewhat ironically open the door for Homer Bailey to join the starting staff. The oft-injured hurler is still due $23MM this year along with a $5MM buyout on what was once a 2020 option. Bailey was cut loose by the Dodgers entering the final year of the big extension that he signed with the Reds and which was shipped to Los Angeles this winter. The K.C. org will owe him only the MLB minimum.

Bailey will get a shot at redemption in Kansas City. Kennedy, meanwhile, will try to carve out a second act as a reliever while remaining available as a depth option should a rotation need arise.

Michael Fulmer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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TODAY: Fulmer will indeed undergo the procedure, he tells reporters including Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter).

YESTERDAY: Tigers righty Michael Fulmer has received a recommendation that he undergo Tommy John surgery, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports on Twitter. He’d stand to miss the entire 2019 season and in all likelihood a portion of the 2020 campaign as well.

Fulmer’s medical status has been a bit of a mystery of late, but this news comes as a surprise. He had been shut down recently, purportedly to work on mechanical issues tied to his recovery from last season’s knee surgery, but obviously was dealing with something else entirely. Fulmer had shown a worrying loss of velocity this spring after turning in a subpar, injury-marred 2018 campaign.

It’s not yet certain that Fulmer will go under the knife, but that seems to be far and away the likeliest outcome. Per the Tigers, both a team doctor and noted surgeon Dr. James Andrews have already recommended that Fulmer receive a full replacement of his ulnar collateral ligament.

This is hardly the news anyone wanted for Fulmer, who reached his 26th birthday just days ago. Fortunately for the righty, he already agreed to a $2.8MM salary for the coming season. On the bright side for the club, they won the arbitration hearing and thus avoided a larger payout.

In all likelihood, the Tigers will end up paying Fulmer that $2.8MM both this season and next, while hoping he’ll be able to contribute by the middle of the 2020 campaign. Fulmer is controllable in 2021 and 2022 as well. His earning power in those years will depend upon what he’s able to do in ’20; it’ll unquestionably be diminished by the lengthy absence.

The Detroit organization has thus far centered its rebuilding effort on young pitching, with a series of interesting arms moving up through the ranks. It seemed through his first two seasons in the majors that Fulmer might be a veteran anchor for the next great Tigers staff — or, instead, a big trade chip who’d reel in loads of young talent.

That outlook already changed last year, as Fulmer struggled to a 4.69 ERA in 132 1/3 innings. During his excellent debut campaign and solid follow-up effort, Fulmer’s unexciting strikeout numbers were explained away by some. The line was that his overpowering arsenal and ability to induce weak contact made it unnecessary for Fulmer to rack of Ks. The narrative shifted over the course of the 2018 season. Even as hard contact rose (39.5%), his groundball rate (44.2%) and home run suppression (1.29 per nine innings, 14.5% HR/FB rate) dove despite steady 96 mph velocity readings on his fastball.

Perhaps Fulmer would have found his way back to being a high-quality starter had he not encountered knee issues that ultimately resulted in a meniscus procedure. The connection between that joint, his reduced velo this spring, and his problematic elbow isn’t completely clear, but it certainly seems plausible that all are interrelated. He’ll now have a lengthy absence to work through the varying health issues. If all goes well, Fulmer could return to be a quality hurler once more.

Injury/Rehab Notes: Kershaw, Jeffress, Nelson, Darvish, Phillies

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It’s been a fait accompli for weeks now, but Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts made it official today that Clayton Kershaw will open the season on the injured list (link via Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times). Kershaw has been slowed by inflammation in his left shoulder for much of the spring and has not been pitching in Cactus League games recently. He’ll face live hitters tomorrow, per Castillo. There’s no indication at present that Kershaw will miss a substantial portion of the upcoming season. Castillo, in fact, notes that Kershaw won’t pitch in the upcoming series of exhibition games against the Angels, beginning on Sunday, because withholding him will allow the Dodgers to back-date his IL placement by the maximum three days (thus creating the possibility of an earlier return). It’s been a month since Kershaw has thrown in a game setting, though, so there’s still some work to be done in terms of getting him back up to speed.

A few more updates on some notable injury situations…

  • Both Jeremy Jeffress and Jimmy Nelson will open the season on the injured list, Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns confirmed today (Twitter links, with video, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt). The concern regarding each player appears to be relatively mild, as Stearns even emphasized that Jeffress isn’t so much hurt as he is dealing with weakness in his shoulder while trying to build up strength. Stearns declined to place a definitive timeline on either pitcher but indicated that it’s plausible that Jeffress could return to the team before the end of April. Nelson, meanwhile, will jump right into rehab games for Triple-A San Antonio to open the season, and he’ll be further evaluated after his first couple of starts.
  • Cubs fans braced for bad news when trainers visited Yu Darvish on the mound today and the righty exited the game, however the ailment in question proved to be minor. The Cubs announced that Darvish exited the game with a blister, and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets that the right-hander doesn’t even expect to miss a start. Darvish cut the blister open while throwing a breaking ball on what proved to be his final pitch of the afternoon.
  • Phillies right-hander Tommy Hunter and outfield hopeful Roman Quinn are expected to open the 2019 season on the injured list, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Hunter has been slowed by a flexor strain this spring, while Quinn is sidelined for now due to an oblique strain. Quinn’s placement on the IL buys the Phillies a little bit of time in determining how to sort out their outfield picture. With Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen locked into the corners, the Phillies have four remaining outfielders — Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Quinn — with minimal at-bats to go around. That situation is complicated further by the fact that Altherr and Quinn are both out of minor league options. Something will have to give eventually, but until Quinn is up to full strength, the Phillies can continue to keep him and Altherr both in the organization.

Padres’ Jacob Nix Diagnosed With UCL Damage

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10:30pm: The Padres are currently terming Nix’s injury a “low-grade UCL sprain,” per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (Twitter link). The current plan is six to eight weeks of rest before he resumes a throwing program, though the second opinion he receives from Dr. ElAttrache will impact the ultimate course of action.

7:40pm: Padres right-hander Jacob Nix has a “small” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. He’ll be evaluated by Dr. Neal ElAttrache before determining whether to undergo surgery. Depending on the extent of the tear, Nix could opt for a non-surgical route — platelet-rich plasma and stem cell injections are sometimes prescribed for UCL tears — though the mention of any degree of UCL tear immediately brings Tommy John surgery to mind.

At the very least, Nix’s injury takes him out of consideration for a rotation spot at any point in the early portion of the 2019 season. He’s one of numerous young Padres arms viewed as potential long-term options in the rotation, a rough 2018 MLB debut notwithstanding. Last season, Nix reached the Majors at the age of 22 but was tattooed for a 7.02 ERA in 42 1/3 innings — a marked departure from the 2.05 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 he logged in 52 2/3 innings of Double-A ball.

Even with Nix sidelined indefinitely, the Padres have a promising group of young arms on which to build. Joey Lucchesi established himself as a viable MLB starter last season, while prospect Chris Paddack has turned heads with a brilliant spring to date (to say nothing of his top 100 prospect billing and excellent minor league numbers in 2018). Lefties Matt Strahm, Eric Lauer and Logan Allen could start games for San Diego early in the season, as could Robbie Erlin — the de facto “elder statesman” of the group (though he’s just 28 years of age himself). Beyond that grouping is another wave of pitching talent featuring names like Cal Quantrill, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon and MacKenzie Gore, giving the Friars a wealth of pitching depth that few organizations can match.

Brewers Sign Josh Fields

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7:46pm: Fields’ contract comes with a $1MM base salary in the Majors, and it contains opt-out provisions on April 30 and June 25, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link).

5:13pm: Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, who is familiar with Fields from their days together in the Astros organization, tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that the plan is for Fields to open the season in Triple-A (Twitter link). He’ll be an option early in the season should the Brewers find themselves in need of bullpen reinforcements.

4:40pm: The Brewers announced that they’ve signed right-hander Josh Fields to a minor league contract. He’ll be invited to the remainder of Major League Spring Training and hope to earn a bullpen spot with the club — if not by Opening Day then early in the season. Fields, who was released by the Dodgers last week, is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Los Angeles’ decision to designate Fields for assignment and release him came as a surprise given Fields’ success in recent seasons and given the fact that he’d agreed to a $2.8MM salary in arbitration. Arbitration salaries are non-guaranteed, however, so the Dodgers only were required to pay Fields 30 days’ termination pay — a sum of about $451K.

In Fields, the Brewers are adding a 33-year-old righty who has tallied 117 1/3 innings of relief and pitched to a terrific 2.61 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 1.22 HR/9 since being acquired by Los Angeles back in 2016. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which will be more problematic at Miller Park than at Dodger Stadium, but Fields averages nearly 95 mph on his heater with strong swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. With Jeremy Jeffress ailing, it’s not surprising to see the Brewers add some talented depth with recent big league experience to a bullpen that already features two of the game’s biggest strikeout arms (Josh Hader and Corey Knebel).

Athletics Select Nick Hundley’s Contract

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The Athletics announced Tuesday that they’ve selected the contract of catcher Nick Hundley. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, fellow catcher Chris Herrmann was placed on the 60-day injured list. Beyond those moves, the A’s placed outfielder Nick Martini and righty Jharel Cotton on the 10-day IL.

Hundley’s selection makes official what has long bee apparent: he’ll pair with Josh Phegley to comprise the primary catching tandem in Oakland following the departure of Jonathan Lucroy, who signed as a free agent with the division-rival Angels. Hundley originally signed a minor league pact with the A’s back in February, and he’ll now be paid a $1.25MM base salary after being added to the MLB roster.

Hundley, 35, batted .241/.298/.408 with 10 homers in 305 plate appearances last season for the Giants and posted a combined .243/.285/.413 slash with San Francisco in the two seasons he spent there. While he’s lacking in terms of on-base skills, he nonetheless has a bit of pop in his bat and will bring 11 years of MLB experience to an Athletics roster that figures to feature quite a few young arms over the course of the season.

Dellin Betances Will Begin Season On Injured List Due To Shoulder Impingement

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Yankees right-hander Dellin Betances will open the 2019 season on the injured list due to an impingement and inflammation in his right shoulder, general manager Brian Cashman announced to reporters Tuesday (Twitter links via the YES Network’s Jack Curry).

There’s no set timetable for when Betances might rejoin the big league bullpen. To this point in Spring Training, the right-hander’s fastball velocity has been sitting in the upper 80s and low 90s — a far cry from the 98 mph he’s averaged across the past two seasons. While all of that sounds ominous, the situation may not be as dire as Yankees fans fear; Betances will only require three to five days of rest before he attempts to resume throwing — a timeline that’s not indicative of a serious injury.

And, fortunately for the Yankees, if there’s one area in which they can withstand an injury, it’s the bullpen. Even with Betances sidelined early in the season, the Yankees will still have Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green and Jonathan Holder at the back of a deep and talented bullpen.

For Betances, the timing of the issue is highly unwelcome. The 30-year-old is entering his final season of club control and is set to become a free agent following the 2019 season. He’s earning $7.125MM this season and has been among the game’s most dominant bullpen weapons over the past half decade, compiling a 2.22 ERA with 14.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and just 0.6 HR/9 over 373 1/3 regular-season innings.

Yankees Sign Gio Gonzalez

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The Yankees have bolstered their pitching depth in a substantial way, adding veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez. General manager Brian Cashman announced to reporters Tuesday that Gonzalez has passed his physical and reported to camp (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Rather stunningly, the contract is a minor league deal that reportedly comes with a $3MM base salary in the Majors and pays Gonzalez an additional $300K per start (topping out at $12MM). He can also opt out of the contract on April 20.

Gio Gonzalez } Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

This outcome was hard to foresee when the market opened. While Gonzalez hardly seemed likely to break the bank, he’s an accomplished, still-useful, exceptionally durable starter. MLBTR graded him the 27th-best free agent available and predicted a two-year, $24MM contract.

As it turns out, many mid-level free-agent starters have failed to land that second promised year. And Gonzalez will still need to earn his way onto the MLB roster. Even if he makes it, he’ll be playing on a base rate of pay that lags a long list of other rotation pieces that signed this winter.

Gonzalez, 33, was long a highly valuable starter with the Athletics and Nationals. While he was often chided for inconsistency on a start-by-start basis, he was one of the steadiest hurlers in the majors in the aggregate for a lengthy span. Between 2010 and 2017, Gonzalez threw over 1,500 innings of 3.41 ERA ball, only once failing to make thirty starts in a season.

As recently as 2017, Gonzalez was capable of a sub-3.00 ERA, 200+ inning campaign. Even then, his peripherals reflected a decline in his stuff. Over the past two seasons, Gonzalez’s fastball has sat just over the 90 mph line. He still generated a 9.5% swinging-strike rate last year, right at his career average, but surrendered more hard contact and more home runs than he did in his prime.

Despite the downturn, Gonzalez remained a sturdy MLB hurler in 2018. He contributed 171 frames and ended with a 4.21 ERA. Gonzalez struggled in two postseason outings but provided the Brewers with five useful starts down the stretch after a late-season trade.

While his earning upside was always going to be limited by his age and reduced repertoire, it’s hard to fathom this outcome. It’s certainly possible that other teams offered guaranteed deals with less overall earning capacity. Even that’s unclear at this point, though.

The Yankees, it seems, don’t necessarily even plan to utilize Gonzalez to fill in while Luis Severino works back from his injury issues. Per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links), the club seems inclined to rely upon a trio of young hurlers — Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga — before turning to Gonzalez. That could certainly change before the opt-out date. But it’s notable that the deeply established southpaw will evidently be working just to obtain an MLB opportunity, particularly with so many teams preparing to rely upon untested pitchers at the outset of the season.

It also remains to be seen just when Gonzalez will even be ready to join the Yankees’ rotation. Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Gonzalez made 80 pitches in a simulated game just yesterday and could appear in the Yankees’ Grapefruit League game on March 23 (Twitter link via Hoch). He still isn’t likely to be ready for the season opener, though, which point to an early April debut, at the earliest.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). Sherman reported that it was a minor league pact (Twitter link), while The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added financial details (via Twitter). Heyman added further details regarding the contract’s heavy slate of incentives (via Twitter).

Indians Release Matt Joyce

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The Indians announced Tuesday that veteran outfielder Matt Joyce has been granted his release from his minor league contract, making him a free agent. The Cleveland organization informed Joyce late last week that he would not make the big league roster. Joyce will now have the opportunity to seek a landing spot with just over a week until the regular season commences.

The 34-year-old Joyce had a rough 2018 season with the A’s (.208/.322/.353 in 246 PAs) and didn’t hit much in his limited time with the Indians organization this spring (5-for-27 with three walks and seven strikeouts). However, he’s only one season removed from batting .243/.335/.473 with the Athletics in 2017.

Broadly speaking, Joyce has been a quality platoon bat in the outfield corners over the past decade, hitting right-handed pitching at an above-average clip while playing largely solid defense. In nearly 3400 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Joyce is a .250/.351/.451 hitter.

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