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Giancarlo Stanton Notes: Opt-Out Clause, Contract Value, No-Trade Clause

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With rumors continuing to swirl around 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, Craig Edwards of Fangraphs took a close look at the value of the Marlins outfielder’s opt-out clause, and how it might suppress his trade value. It’s well-known by now that after the 2020 season, Stanton will have the power to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM left on his contract to pursue a new deal. Edwards examines scenarios in which Stanton ages well, normally and poorly, estimating his contract’s potential surplus (or dearth of) value in each instance based on projected WAR output. The obvious conclusion is that Stanton’s opt-out clause negatively impacts his trade value. He would be highly likely to opt out if he ages well or even normally, limiting the value he’d provide to his new team in each case. However, if he ages poorly, he’d most likely opt into the remaining seven years on the contract; in such a case he’d provide negative surplus value over the life of the ten years with his new team. The piece uses a series of charts to make a case. It’s a fascinating read from beginning to end, shedding light on the unique risk teams face in deciding upon the prospect value they’re willing to give up for a player who gets to choose whether to be with them for three years or for an entire decade.

More opinion pieces on Stanton on a slow Thanksgiving afternoon…

  • Earlier this month, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs also wrote about Stanton, making the case that teams should be pushing hard to acquire the slugger. Sarris delves into a number of pros: he’s young, he’s not injury prone, he’s capable of incredible offensive output during his prime and his contract could potentially provide $100MM in surplus value if he ages well. The latter point is particularly interesting; Sarris makes the case that part of Stanton’s skill set lies in his plate discipline. Although there’s some swing and miss in the Marlins slugger’s game, he walks a lot and doesn’t often swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Perhaps the most compelling part of Sarris’ case is the fact that Stanton is available at age 28, which is increasingly rare in an era where many of baseball’s superstars don’t become available to acquire while in their twenties.
  • Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which is an even bigger roadblock for the Marlins than his opt-out clause. Buster Olney of ESPN (insider subscription required and recommended) writes that Stanton should take full advantage of this leverage. The Marlins have made it well-known that they want to cut payroll, and trading Stanton is the most obvious way to do that. Meanwhile, a wide variety of teams will want his potential 60-homer power if he comes at their reasonable price. Due to these factors, Stanton has all the power in negotiations, prompting Olney to express that the NL MVP ought to hold out for a trade to whatever team for whom he wishes to play. “Stanton is in no way obligated to the Marlins or their new ownership to solve their debt crisis for them,” Olney writes. “If they bring a proposal to him in the next week or two and Stanton has any reservations about playing for a team he’s not prepared to wholly embrace, he should say no.”

Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Preliminary Offseason Efforts

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Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins joined Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling on Sportsnet’s At the Letters podcast. There’s lots to listen to — including the Sportsnet team’s discussion of other subjects — but we’ll look at a few key takeaways here:

  • The Jays are still committed to “putting a winning product on the field,” says Atkins, and that’ll be the driving force in the team’s decisions. (Indeed, he says he does not really anticipate a need for a full-blown rebuild in Toronto, though he would not rule out the possibility at times of requiring a “soft reset.”) Though there haven’t been any significant moves yet, that’s true of the entire remainder of the league as well. Atkins says he thinks the hold-up is likely at the top of the market but also results from a more general trend toward “more patience” in transactional decisionmaking. That could be a result of greater understanding between teams as to how they value players, he suggests, while noting there may also be a cyclical element to it. The tendency toward slow-developing action, after all, may itself create opportunities, Atkins notes.
  • Toronto’s top priority remains “protect[ing] our middle infield,” says Atkins, who acknowledges the organization cannot simply rely upon Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki to handle regular duties. The ideal player — who, Atkins acknowledges, doesn’t likely exist — would not only add “depth and versatility” up the middle but would be a left-handed hitter that can also play in the outfield. More likely, he says, achieving all of these goals will involve multiple players. Atkins suggests a major outfield addition isn’t likely, explaining that he believes there’s “good depth” on hand but expressing a desire to find a way to “complement” the existing players “a little bit better.”
  • Atkins also expanded a bit on his previously stated intentions to seek some pitching depth. The goal, he says, is “complementing our pitching in some significant way.” A back-end starter would be one possibility, per Atkins, but the team could also pursue an “elite reliever or some hybrid of the two.” It seems, then, that there’s some flexibility in the organization’s thinking on the pitching side of the ledger. More than chasing a single pitcher, perhaps, the front office will be looking for a high-value opportunity in this area.

Latest On Mets’ Search For Relievers

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Though the free agent market has basically not yet budged, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been movement behind the scenes. The Mets, for instance, are working hard to land multiple veteran relievers, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post.

There’s particular interest, Puma writes (expanding upon his prior report), in veteran righty Bryan Shaw. The durable veteran worked with new Mets manager Mickey Callaway, who was previously the Indians’ pitching coach. That fact clearly gives the organization some added insight into a hurler who has steadily produced excellent results.

Another pitcher with a recent connection to Callaway has also caught the Mets’ eye, according to the report. Sidearmer Joe Smith, who broke into the big leagues with the Mets, is closing in on his 34th birthday but has a track record of consistently good innings that’s similar to Shaw’s. Interestingly, Smith exhibited a big jump in his swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and strikeout rate (11.8 K/9, against just 1.7 BB/9) in 2017.

Two others on the Mets’ watch list, according to the report, are lefty Mike Minor and former Mets righty Addison Reed. Both of those pitchers are in the same general range of sub-elite relievers as Shaw, though MLBTR has predicted that each would be able to secure an extra guaranteed season on the open market. It seems unlikely that the Mets would be able to take on two significant relief contracts in one winter, so perhaps the hope is to land one of those three (or another, similar pitcher) while also picking up a slightly cheaper option such as Smith — who just missed inclusion on MLBTR’s top fifty list but could certainly be a candidate for a significant, multi-year deal.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the Mets are able to strike an early deal with one of these pitchers. There’s surely broad interest in all of them, and getting something done now — before more significant dominoes fall — could mean extending an offer that meets or approaches the typically steep initial asking price. To take but one example, the Cardinals landed Brett Cecil last winter by giving him a fourth year and a no-trade clause, neither of which were anticipated when the market opened.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto On Ohtani, Healy, Platoons, Relievers

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In the first episode of a new Mariners podcast, The Wheelhouse, general manager Jerry Dipoto joined host Aaron Goldsmith to discuss a plethora of topics regarding his team. The 41-minute, must-listen interview is packed with candid assessments of the Mariners’ roster, trade anecdotes and, perhaps most appealing to the general MLBTR audience, more than 15 minutes of talk on Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani.

Dipoto doesn’t shy away from expressing his excitement to finally be able to talk about Ohtani now that the 23-year-old is going to be posted for big league clubs, and he’s frank in explaining his desire to make a serious run at signing the right-hander/slugger.

“We want to sell the Seattle experience,” says Dipoto. “What it means to the Japanese-American, our culture and how this organization has trended — and trended so positively — when we have a star Japanese player. And make no mistake — this is a star Japanese player. He’s talented. He’s gifted. He’s going to make some team a lot better.”

The GM goes on to acknowledge, of course, that Ohtani’s specific preferences when selecting a team remain unclear. It’s possible that Ohtani, for instance, would rather head to an organization that doesn’t have a storied history of Japanese stars so that he can form his own legacy, Dipoto suggests. For the time being, there’s not yet a great way to gauge his top priorities. There are countless variables that’ll determine where Ohtani lands, and while money doesn’t appear to be the primary factor, the Mariners will be on the lookout for means by which to acquire additional international funds to pad their offer to Ohtani.

To that end, Dipoto concedes that his trade of hard-throwing righty Thyago Vieira to the White Sox in exchange for international funds was “pretty much” done as a means of increasing his maximum offer to Ohtani. The Mariners also had a glut of pitchers on the roster, he notes (26 of the 39 players on the 40-man) and were in need of some maintenance before this week’s deadline to set the roster for the Rule 5 Draft, though that didn’t seem to be the primary motivation.

“We have made no bones about it in talking to other clubs,” Dipoto says of adding extra international money. “We’ve gathered as much as we can. … We are not going to leave a stone unturned in the efforts to do it again if the opportunity exists. We’ll be responsible in how we do it, but we understand that this is a one-time buying opportunity, and you have to be prepared. To me, the worst thing we can be is sitting on the sideline, being too conservative — sitting on our hands when an opportunity to change the history of your organization comes along, because that’s what this might be.”

The Mariners, Dipoto confirms, have just shy of $1.6MM to offer Ohtani at this point and have the capacity to acquire another roughly $2.3MM within the confines of MLB’s international bonus pool system. However, clubs are becoming less willing to part with international funding — hardly a surprise given not only Ohtani’s posting but also the new slate of prospects that are available to MLB clubs in the fallout from the Braves’ investigation (headlined, of course, by Kevin Maitan).

The Mariners have spent at least the past year working on their sales pitch to Ohtani, going so far as to prepare a “film on the merits of Seattle and the Mariners” as they seek different ways to pique his interest.

“This is maybe the most unique circumstance in baseball that I can recall,” Dipoto adds. “It is all about how you as a city, as an organization and as human beings appeal to an individual, rather than the final paycheck. In my lifetime, that’s really never been a thing.”

The Mariners, like most other clubs (presumably), view Ohtani as an immediately MLB-ready “plug-and-play difference maker” that doesn’t need a stop in the minors before pitching in a big league rotation. Dipoto notes that his team’s interest in signing Ohtani is so great that they’d be willing to play Nelson Cruz in the outfield a few times per week in order to free some DH at-bats for Ohtani on days he does not pitch.

With or without Ohtani, the Mariners’ lineup will have a different composition next season. The first major move of Seattle’s offseason was to flip Emilio Pagan and 17-year-old shortstop Alexander Campos to the Athletics in a trade for Ryon Healy, who will be the team’s new first baseman. Dipoto praises Healy’s lengthy track record of hitting, dating back to A-ball and even into his amateur days, noting that the Mariners have had interest in him since 2016. While Healy’s lack of walks doesn’t necessarily fit this front office’s typical blueprint for an offensive player, the GM expresses confidence that his new acquisition will be a positive contributor.

“Our ability to get on base may be a little more linked to the bat than we prefer, but he brings something that’s hard to find for us, and that’s cheap affordable power at a position that’s been difficult to fill,” says Dipoto. “…And that gives us one solution at an affordable rate with a player we hold for five more years — that allows us the ability to go focus our resources to fill needs in other areas.”

While Healy will be penciled in as the primary first baseman, his ability to play third base if needed held some appeal to the Mariners as well. Generally speaking, Dipoto voices a preference to avoid a necessity to rely heavily on strict platoons. The team still relishes the idea of acquiring versatile players that can handle multiple positions as a means of retaining roster flexibility, but taking up two roster spots to field one position is somewhat of an inefficiency that the M’s would prefer to move away from.

Seattle will also feature some changes in the bullpen, having traded Pagan and brought in right-hander Nick Rumbelow from the Yankees. Dipoto raves about Rumbelow’s performance in his return from Tommy John surgery this past season and praises him as a potential future setup man in the Seattle ’pen.

Rumbelow isn’t the first near-MLB ready player the Mariners have plucked from the Yankees, and Seattle will undoubtedly hope that he pans out similarly well. Both outfielder Ben Gamel and left-hander James Pazos have established themselves in Seattle, so much so that Dipoto notes that he gets asked about Pazos more than any other player in trade talks.

“You don’t find a lot of 26-year-old lefties who throw in the mid-90s, who are making close to league minimum, who have gone out and shown that they can be effective in the big leagues.”

Again, the entire interview is an excellent listen, with Dipoto sharing scouting stories on Ohtani, trade anecdotes, insight into the Mariners’ roster composition and some general insight into the various motivations behind his most recent set of trades. Fans of the Mariners and other clubs alike should find plenty of interest in the lengthy chat between Dipoto and Goldsmith.

Free Agent Faceoff: Lance Lynn Vs. Alex Cobb

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When it comes to the starting pitching market this offseason, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will hold some of the widest appeal of any names on the market. Both right-handers would be an upgrade to virtually any rotation in the Majors, and both figure to be more affordable to interested parties than top-of-the-market names like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Each enjoyed a solid 2017 campaign in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, though neither has fully regained the form he showed prior to that operation. Both players rejected one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers, so both will require draft-pick forfeiture to sign.

Lance Lynn | Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Lynn, 31 next May, is the older of the two but has also been more durable throughout his career. While he missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he’s averaged 31.8 starts and 189 innings per season across his past five healthy campaigns — dating back to the 2012 season. The 3.43 ERA that Lynn turned in this past season bears a striking resemblance to the 3.39 mark he’s compiled in 943 innings from 2012-17.

Looking beyond Lynn’s ERA, though, there were plenty more red flags in 2017 than he had in his peak seasons. Lynn’s velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate are all worse than the marks he posted in his best seasons, and a huge spike in his homer-to-flyball rate (14.2 percent) led to a career-worst 1.30 HR/9 mark. Of course, home runs were up leaguewide, with many believing an altered composition of the baseball being a primary factor in that trend. Lynn’s secondary numbers are far less encouraging than his ERA, but he did take the ball 33 times and log 186 1/3 innings — largely reestablishing himself as a reliable source of innings.

Alex Cobb | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Cobb, on the other hand, will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 30. Unlike Lynn, durability has never been a strong point in his favor and could, in fact, be the single largest red flag attached to his free agency. Cobb tossed 179 1/3 innings in 2017, and that marked a career-high. We’ve never seen a free-agent starter without a 180-inning season under his belt score a four-year commitment on the open market, but there’s a belief that Cobb could set a new precedent in that regard.

In those 179 1/3 innings, Cobb turned in a 3.66 ERA but did so with a pedestrian K/9 mark of 6.4, albeit against a strong 2.2 BB/9 mark and with an above-average 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. Interested teams will no doubt be heartened by the fact that Cobb’s K/BB numbers overwhelmingly trended in the right direction down the stretch, as he posted a 38-to-8 K/BB ratio with a 2.82 ERA and a 3.01 xFIP in his final 38 1/3 innings. That bears a strong resemblance to Cobb’s peak, when he turned in a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 309 2/3 frames. Of course, that performance also came way back in 2013-14, and until his final seven starts of the season, he hadn’t approximated that form post-surgery.

The markets for Cobb and Lynn seem almost certain to overlap, as they’ll be widely regarded as the Nos. 3 and 4 starting pitchers on the open market (excluding Shohei Ohtani, whose unique market can’t exactly be compared to that of standard Major League free agents). Teams will weigh Lynn’s considerably greater track record of durability against Cobb’s strong finish and superior performance leading up to Tommy John surgery. Either of the two could slot comfortably into the middle of most big league rotations or, at worst, serve as a strong fourth or fifth starter in a more premium rotation.

Obviously, this is a high-level look and there are many other considerations to factor into the decision. That said, let’s see where MLBTR readers stand on the issue (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Braves, Lind, Phillies

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Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter are still seeking additional investors for their ownership group even after being formally approved as the new owners of the Marlins, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Sherman/Jeter group is still looking to add about $250MM from outside investors, though Heyman notes that the league is “quite comfortable” with the new ownership group’s current financial state. Interestingly, Heyman has obtained some slides from a “teaser” email sent to potential investors in which the Marlins outline a number of “strategic priorities” for improving revenue. Among the new means of revenue to be explored are a new television contract, selling the naming rights to the stadium, new sponsorship/advertising opportunities and an increased focus on utilizing Marlins Park to host non-baseball events (e.g. concerts).

Elsewhere in the NL East…

  • While former Braves president of baseball ops John Hart, current CEO Terry McGuirk and current president John Schuerholz all escaped league-issued punishment in the team’s international free-agent/amateur draft scandal, the entire scenario tarnishes their legacies within the game and within the Braves organization, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended). That trio’s lack of oversight allowed the guilty parties within the organization to “run wild,” Rosenthal notes, and the uncertainty surrounding the involvement of Braves’ higher-ups will linger. Peter Gammons rhetorically asked, “So who in Braves’ ownership ok’d all the cash to Coppolella?” following the investigation’s completion (Twitter link). That is just one of the many questions surrounding the incident that remains unanswered — a reality that flies in the face of comments made by McGuirk last month when telling Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “I don’t think there will be any questions (unanswered) when we are able to discuss it.”
  • In his latest Nationals Inbox piece, MLB.com’s Jamal Collier writes that he doesn’t foresee a reunion between the Nats and first baseman Adam Lind this offseason. Washington’s decision to turn down their half of a $5MM mutual option suggests that they’re not willing to pay him at a rate he may very well be able to find elsewhere on the open market. The Nats will likely utilize Brian Goodwin as a fourth outfielder in 2018, Collier notes, but Lind’s absence will make finding a backup first baseman/corner bat off the bench a priority this winter.
  • The Phillies have named 28-year-old Pedro Guerrero, a former Dodgers minor league infielder, as their new assistant hitting coach, per a club announcement. As Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer points out, that suggests that Rick Kranitz, who was the team’s assistant pitching coach in 2017, will be named the team’s new pitching coach for the 2018 season. The Phillies have previously announced that Kranitz would be on the staff next year but haven’t revealed his role with the team. However, they’re only allowed to add two more coaches before reaching the maximum allotment and still need a pitching coach, first base coach and bench coach. As for Guerrero, he’s an outside-the-box hire, to be sure. But, Guerrero has already spent two seasons as a minor league bench coach in the Dodgers organization  and has some familiarity with newly minted skipper Gabe Kapler from the pair’s time together in Los Angeles.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/22/17

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Here are Wednesday’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Indians announced that they’ve signed left-hander Jeff Beliveau, right-hander Leonel Campos and infielder Drew Maggi to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training. Both Beliveau and Campos pitched out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen in 2017. The 30-year-old Beliveau tossed 15 2/3 innings and struggled to a 7.47 ERA, though he racked up 17 strikeouts against six walks in that time. Beliveau threw 24 excellent innings for the Rays in 2014 but has seen his career slowed by shoulder surgery. As for Campos, the 30-year-old posted a 2.63 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings with Toronto last year but also walked eight in that time. He’s averaged 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple-A but has also battled control issues. As for Maggi, the 28-year-old hit .271/.367/.392 in 298 Triple-A plate appearances with the Dodgers last year and owns a lifetime .272/.362/.385 batting line at that level.
  • Outfielder Zach Borenstein is joining the Mets on a minor league deal with an invite to big league Spring Training, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The 27-year-old posted a .272/.337/.440 line with the D-backs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2016 before taking a step forward and mashing at a .279/.351/.573 clip there this past season. Those numbers came in a hitter-friendly setting, though Borenstein’s overall .283/.355/.502 slash line in seven minor league seasons is similarly impressive.
  • The White Sox have signed third baseman/corner outfielder Patrick Leonard to a minor league deal, tweets Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Leonard, who turned 25 last month, was one of the pieces the Royals sent to the Rays in the famed James Shields/Wade Davis for Wil Myers/Jake Odorizzi swap between the two teams. The former fifth-rounder logged strong numbers through the Double-A level in his career but has thus far struggled at a .254/.317/.375 pace in parts of two Triple-A seasons.

Free Agent Notes: Jay, Shaw, Frazier

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Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has identified his five best potential free agent values and, on the other hand, five most worrisome open-market landmines. Those posts are always interesting and are well worth a read as we wait for the market to get started in earnest.

Here are a few free agent notes on Thanksgiving Eve:

  • The Mariners have engaged with free agent outfielder Jon Jay, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It “seems as though there’s some momentum there,” he adds, while also cautioning that there isn’t a deal in place at present. Jay checked in just inside the top forty players on MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, with a predicted contract of two years and $14MM. Last year, he slashed .296/.374/.375 in 433 plate appearances with the Cubs while seeing time across the outfield. It seems unlikely that the left-handed hitter would command everyday time in Seattle, but might effectively step into the place in the rotation vacated by fellow free agent Jarrod Dyson.
  • It’s possible the Mets will “move[] soon” to add to their bullpen, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. He suggests right-handed free agent Bryan Shaw as a name to watch for the organization, which has indicated an interest in beefing up its relief corps in part to reduce the workload on a rotation that has dealt with health issues of late. Shaw, 30, is about as steady and reliable as relievers come. He carries a 3.13 lifetime ERA through 446 1/3 innings across seven seasons. Shaw has handled at least 64 frames in each of the past five campaigns and has never finished a season with an earned run average over 3.52 (last year’s mark). He has also paced the American League in appearances in three separate seasons for the Indians, including each of the past two. MLBTR rated Shaw the 25th-best free agent available and predicted he’d score a $21MM guarantee over three years, though there’s likely some contractual upside beyond that mark.
  • Though Todd Frazier has spent most of his career at third base and is still capable of manning the position, Feinsand reports that his representatives are pitching the veteran as an option at either infield corner. The 31-year-old Frazier turned in a solid 2017 campaign, split between the White Sox and Yankees, in which he posted a .213/.344/.428 batting line with 27 home runs. While that represented a big jump in the on-base department over his prior two seasons, Frazier also wasn’t quite as prolific in terms of power as he was after swatting 35 and 40 long balls in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Odds are that the team to sign Frazier will mostly value him as an option at third, particularly given that there are a fair number of other options available at first base, but the openness to both positions certainly won’t hurt his market outlook. Frazier landed ahead of the two players listed above on our free agent board, with a predicted three-year, $33MM contract placing him 17th on the list.

Orioles Acquire Jaycob Brugman

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The Orioles have acquired outfielder Jaycob Brugman from the Athletics, per a club announcement. A player to be named or cash will go to Oakland in return.

Brugman, 25, was just designated for assignment by the A’s. He reached the majors for the first time last year, posting a .266/.346/.343 slash over 162 plate appearances. A generally solid on-base threat in the minors, the left-handed hitter has shown a bit of pop at times but has not always sustained it in the upper minors. Metrics did not view his work in center field favorably in 2017, though that was a short sample and scouting reports have generally suggested he’s a solid overall defender.

[RELATED: Orioles Depth Chart]

It’s certainly possible that the Orioles could allow Brugman to compete for a reserve/platoon outfield role in camp. He’ll play at or near the league minimum and might help the team save funds to dedicate to the rotation, which is clearly a more pressing area of need. The O’s have a variety of right-handed bats to work with already. Adam Jones and Trey Mancini are certainties to see regular time. Mark Trumbo will likely mostly function as a DH but could factor in the mix, while top prospect Austin Hays will receive consideration despite a tepid late-season debut. Reserve options on hand include switch-hitting Anthony Santander and right-handed-hitting Joey Rickard.

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