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MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the MLBTR writing team’s original content from the past week…

  • The “Looking For A Match” series was in full gear this week, as MLBTR writers outlined the trade markets for several notable players.  Jeff Todd looked at the possible suitors for the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler, Mark Polishuk explored which teams could make a play for Jose Abreu, Kyle Downing examined another big White Sox trade chip in Avisail Garcia, and Connor Byrne broke down the best fits to acquire Raisel Iglesias from the Reds.
  • Eric Hosmer is the latest player featured in our Free Agent Profile series, with Connor accessing the pros and cons for teams interested in the longtime Royals first baseman.
  • Now that the off-the-field drama seems to finally be concluded in Atlanta, Jeff discusses the challenges GM Alex Anthopoulos faces with his new team in the Braves’ Offseason Outlook entry.
  • It’s a Free Agent Faceoff!  Steve Adams compared Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, the consensus top two “second tier” starters (behind Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta) in this year’s offseason pitching market.  In the poll attached to Steve’s comparison piece, over 58% of MLBTR readers preferred to sign Cobb over Lynn.
  • In other polls from the past week, 19.59% of readers predicted Cobb would be the first of the players within the top ten of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list to sign a contract this offseason.  Another Rays-related survey asked whether or not Tampa Bay would trade Chris Archer this offseason, with the “no” side winning by a slight 51.54% majority.

Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade

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The Reds’ short- and long-term plans for their rotation hit a snag in 2016 when promising starter Raisel Iglesias shifted to the bullpen after encountering shoulder problems. Now, with Iglesias having morphed into one of the game’s most valuable late-game assets over the past two seasons, it’s clear that something positive came from the right-hander’s role change.

Since he became a member of Cincinnati’s relief corps, Iglesias has combined for 126 innings of 2.29 ERA pitching, with 10.43 K/9 against 3.29 BB/9. Any team would sign up for that type of production, including the Reds themselves, who seem inclined to retain Iglesias entering his age-28 season. But with the Reds amid a rebuild and not looking like near-term contenders, there’s an argument to be made that they should sell Iglesias this winter.

Raisel Iglesias

Iglesias has already drawn reported interest from the Twins, who will need to bolster their thin bullpen if they’re going to build on the unexpected success they experienced in 2017. Iglesias would be a fit for a Minnesota club seeking more strikeouts from its pitching staff, but with a farm system that lacks impact talent (per Baseball America), he may be out of its reach.

The Twins are one of a multitude of teams that could inquire about Iglesias (or maybe already have). Indeed, general manager Dick Williams estimated earlier this month that two-thirds of the league would have interest in Iglesias without the Reds even having to shop his services. That seems like a reasonable guess on Williams’ part, given both Iglesias’ superb pitching and his affordability.

Thanks to the seven-year, $27MM contract he signed as a Cuban defector in 2014, Iglesias is under control through the 2020-21 offseason. He’s guaranteed a relatively meager $14.5MM in salaries over the next three years ($4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in both ’19 and ’20), though he could opt into arbitration in each of those offseasons if he believes he’d rake in more money that way. That’s unlikely to happen in 2018, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.8MM arbitration award for Iglesias should he choose that route. Regardless, Iglesias’ contract only adds to his appeal, and it’s a big part of the reason why he’d command a significant haul in a trade.

Teams with good systems that are either in contention or close to it stand out as the best fits for Iglesias in a hypothetical trade, which would seem to rule out rebuilding clubs such as the Tigers, Padres, Marlins, Athletics and White Sox. None of the Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Indians, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks or Giants look like ideal fits, either, for various reasons.

Toronto and Tampa Bay have two of the top 10 farms in the league, according to BA, though neither team appears to be in position to strip itself of major young talent to acquire a reliever. The Yankees and Indians seem to possess more than enough quality relievers, meanwhile, and the rest of the aforementioned clubs probably don’t have the youth on hand to put together a suitable package for Iglesias. That leaves us with seven of the Reds’ National League counterparts — the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Dodgers — and the World Series champion Astros.

An earnest Iglesias pursuit could be a tad aggressive for either Atlanta or Philadelphia, a pair of clubs that have resided at the bottom of the standings in recent years. Both teams seem to be pushing toward contention, however, and there’s no shortage of capable prospects on hand in either case (even though the Braves just lost a dozen youngsters thanks to ex-GM John Coppolella’s transgressions).

The Nationals figure to rule the NL East for the third straight year in 2018, but they’re not loaded in the bullpen after Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Next season might be the last in D.C. for Bryce Harper, which could lead to some bold, go-for-broke moves from general manager Mike Rizzo this winter. Landing Iglesias would qualify, though it would mean further thinning out a top-heavy system.

The Cardinals look poised to serve as one of the league’s most active teams in the next few months, and the need for relief help is apparent with Trevor Rosenthal out of the organization and Seung-hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio having hit free agency. The division-rival Brewers had the world-class game-ending tandem of Corey Knebel and Josh Hader in 2017, but the latter could shift to the rotation in the near future. Even if he doesn’t, there’s room for another inexpensive, top-notch reliever in Milwaukee, a low-payroll club with the prospects to assemble an Iglesias package.

As for the two NL West clubs, the Rockies and Dodgers, it’s clear there’s a greater need for Iglesias in Colorado. The Rockies surprisingly earned a playoff berth in 2017, in part because of relievers Greg Holland, Jake McGee and Pat Neshek. All three of those hurlers are now free agents, however, so Colorado is going to have to focus on its bullpen this offseason. Enter Iglesias, then? Notably, he’s rather reliant on a slider, a pitch the Rockies’ relievers threw more than 28 other bullpens last season and one that’s capable of surviving in the high altitude at Coors Field.

The pennant-winning Dodgers have arguably the game’s preeminent closer in Kenley Jansen, but their second-best reliever from last season, Brandon Morrow, is currently on the open market. That leaves room for an Iglesias pickup if they’re willing to part with the prospects, as he’s superior to late-inning holdovers such as Pedro Baez, Josh Fields, Luis Avilan and ex-Reds teammate Tony Cingrani.

The Astros managed to knock off the Dodgers in a Fall Classic that lived up its name, though the slump Houston’s bullpen endured nearly foiled its plans. Still, Iglesias would be more of a luxury than a must-have for the Astros, who look to be in fine shape with Ken Giles (playoff struggles notwithstanding), Chris Devenski, Will Harris and Joe Musgrove in the fold. But GM Jeff Luhnow tried to meaningfully improve the Astros’ bullpen over the summer, when he nearly swung a deal for the Orioles’ Zach Britton, and that was before Giles’ disastrous postseason run. With that in mind, perhaps Luhnow will dip into his high-end farm system this offseason to reel in a premier reliever like Iglesias, who would join a bullpen that led the majors in slider usage in 2017.

While the Reds may choose to go forward with Iglesias, it’s inarguable that they have an eminently valuable trade chip on their hands. As someone who saved 28 of 30 opportunities and recorded more than three outs in 17 of 63 appearances last season, Iglesias is the type of flexible late-game weapon who’d be worth more to a playoff-caliber team than a non-contender. With Cincinnati falling into the latter category, Iglesias just might himself in another uniform in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Sign Michael Brady To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have signed right-handed reliever Michael Brady to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

The 30-year-old Brady hit the open market earlier this month after declining an outright assignment to Triple-A from the Athletics. Last year was Brady’s only season as a member of the Oakland organization, with which he made his major league debut and tossed 31 2/3 relief innings of 5.68 ERA ball, with 6.82 K/9, 1.71 BB/9 and a 33.7 percent groundball rate. He was much more successful as a swingman with the A’s top minors affiliate, logging a 3.21 ERA, 8.61 K/9, 1.01 BB/9 and a 39.3 grounder percentage across 53 1/3 frames (17 appearances, eight starts).

Brady entered the pro ranks in 2009 as a 24th-round pick of the Marlins, who drafted him as a shortstop. He transferred to the mound in 2010 and has since pitched to a stingy 3.07 ERA, with 9.1 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9, over 513 2/3 minor league innings with the Marlins, Angels, Nationals and A’s.

Andre Ethier Plans To Play In 2018

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2:16pm: Ethier calls the retirement report “totally untrue” and says he’s preparing to play in 2018, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets.

1:08pm: Former Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier has told family and friends that he is retiring, Robert Murray of FanRag reports. The 35-year-old Ethier had been on the open market since Nov. 5, when the Dodgers declined his $17.5MM option for 2018 in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

Andre Ethier

Ethier turned pro when the Athletics used a second-round pick on him in the 2003 draft, but he never cracked the majors with the A’s. Rather, he spent his entire big league career with the Dodgers, who acquired him in exchange for outfielder Milton Bradley and infielder Antonio Perez in 2005. Ethier debuted in Los Angeles in 2006 and immediately became a staple of the team’s offense, slashing .308/.365/.477 in 441 plate appearances to finish fifth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.

While Ethier took a step back during his second season, he rebounded in 2008, the beginning of a six-year stretch defined by both terrific offensive production and durability. Ethier appeared in between 135 and 160 games in each of those seasons and combined to bat .286/.363/.471 with 117 home runs and 16.6 fWAR in 3,588 PAs. The sweet-swinging lefty earned two All-Star appearances (2010-11), a Silver Slugger (2009) and a Gold Glove (2011) during that period, in which the Dodgers clinched three playoff trips.

Ethier did enough over his first several seasons for LA to award him a five-year, $85MM contract extension in June 2012, though the deal didn’t work out as hoped. While the Dodgers won the National League West in each of Ethier’s final five seasons and took home the NL pennant in 2017, he wasn’t a consistent contributor over the life of the contract, in part because of injuries. Ethier totaled a mere 26 PAs in 2016 after suffering a broken leg in spring training and racked up just 38 trips to the plate in his final season as he dealt with back problems. He did participate in the Dodgers’ run to the World Series, though, with four hits and two walks in 15 PAs. In what will go down as the last at-bat of his career, Ethier knocked in the Dodgers’ only run of their Game 7 World Series loss to Houston with a pinch-hit single in the sixth inning.

A lifetime .285/.359/.463 hitter who amassed 162 homers, Ethier stands as one of the most productive offensive players in the Dodgers’ storied history. He ranks in the franchise’s top 20 in games, PAs, at-bats, homers, hits, extra-base hits, total bases, walks and runs batted in.

Either will walk away from the sport having earned upward of $112.6MM as a Dodger, per Baseball-Reference. MLBTR congratulates Ethier on a terrific career and wishes him the best in retirement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Angels’ Infield Plans

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Angels assistant general manager Steve Martone revealed some of the team’s infield plans in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of Sirius XM Radio on Sunday, noting that second base is their biggest need area (Twitter links).

“Second base is more of a priority with our club than any other positions,” said Martone, who added that the Halos’ aim at third is to platoon the left-handed hitting Luis Valbuena with a right-handed bat.

The fact that the Angels are prioritizing the keystone isn’t surprising, considering the nightmarish output they received at the position last season. Only two teams had a worse fWAR at second than the Angels’ minus-0.3, which was largely the result of the horrid .207/.274/.318 slash line that Danny Espinosa, Cliff Pennington, Brandon Phillips, Kaleb Cowart, Nick Franklin and Nolan Fontana produced. The club is reportedly considering Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler and free agents Neil Walker and Zack Cozart to man the position in 2018. Other potential targets could include Howie Kendrick (an ex-Angel) and Eduardo Nunez via free agency, and trade candidates in Dee Gordon (Marlins) and Cesar Hernandez (Phillies). The Angels previously showed interest in both Gordon and Hernandez.

Should the Angels remain true to their word at the hot corner, it would rule out a pursuit of Los Angeles native Mike Moustakas in free agency. Righty-swingers in Kinsler, Nunez, Cozart or Todd Frazier could team with Valbuena, though all four are overqualified to serve on the short side of a platoon. The right-handed Yunel Escobar, the Angels’ primary third baseman from 2016-17 and now a free agent, may be a more realistic option if the two sides are interested in staying together. He and Valbuena worked in tandem to mediocre results last season.

With Valbuena apparently in line to play third next season, it’s unclear what the Angels will do at first base. C.J. Cron looks like the in-house front-runner to occupy the position, but he hasn’t been particularly effective since debuting in 2014. As such, the Halos could attempt to upgrade over Cron in free agency with Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Yonder Alonso or Frazier (Santana and Duda are already on their radar). Hosmer and Santana will collect the largest paydays of the group, and because the two rejected qualifying offers, signing either would cost the Angels their second-highest draft pick in 2018 (No. 56 overall) and $500K of international bonus pool money.

Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani Among Priorities For Twins

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Speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio on Sunday, Twins general manager Thad Levine confirmed that the team is in the market for major pitching upgrades. Levine revealed that the Twins are actively talking with the agents for available starters Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, among others, as well as representatives for various relievers (all Twitter links).  The executive specifically pointed to Darvish as “a priority,” and he used the same word to describe soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani.

“He’s a unique free agent, but we don’t know a lot about him personally yet,” Levine said of Ohtani. “It’s exciting for us because we have a chance to sign a player like him. He’s a top priority for us.”

The three-week sweepstakes to sign Ohtani, a Japanese pitching and hitting superstar, appears likely to commence at the start of December. Had the 23-year-old Ohtani waited until the age of 25 to come to the majors, he would have been in line to sign a mega-deal, which may have ruled out a serious Twins pursuit. But the collective bargaining agreement will limit Ohtani to a low-cost minor league contract this offseason, thereby giving all teams some chance to sign him if they’re willing to pay a $20MM posting fee to his Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, for his services. While money isn’t going to guide Ohtani’s decision this offseason, it’s notable anyway that the Twins have the third-most bonus pool space available ($3.245MM). That won’t hurt them in their chase, of course, but they’ll have to sell Ohtani on how he’d fit into their organization and city.

Interestingly, there has been speculation that, because of the good relationship they forged in their homeland, Ohtani and Darvish, 31, could end up with the same team this winter as a sort of package deal. Landing the pair would be an enormous boon for anyone, including Minnesota, which snapped a six-year playoff drought in 2017 despite an underwhelming showing from its rotation. Twins starters ranked 19th in the majors in ERA (4.73) and 22nd in fWAR (7.7) last season, so the need for quality hurlers to complement Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios is obvious.

Considering Darvish could pull in the richest contract of the offseason, many would expect him to land outside of small-market Minnesota’s price range. However, the club is well positioned to make a bold strike in free agency this winter, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this month. The team itself seems to agree, judging by the established free agents it’s currently pursuing, and it’s worth noting that Levine is already familiar with Darvish from their time together in Texas.

When the Rangers landed Darvish out of Japan in 2012, Levine was their assistant GM. That experience might help during Ohtani’s recruitment, as could the fact that the Twins aren’t exactly set at designated hitter. By most accounts, Ohtani has enough offensive talent to collect regular at-bats in the majors, so he could emerge as the DH for a Minnesota team that only received average production there from Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas last season.

Free Agent Profile: Eric Hosmer

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At some point in the near future, the major league offseason is going to stop moving at the speed of Albert Pujols and become a compelling parade of transactions. When that happens, there’s a team that’s going to commit a lot of money to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer, who turned in a well-timed career year in 2017. But the 28-year-old Hosmer’s major league tenure has also come with some unspectacular seasons, leading to plenty of wariness about what he’ll provide on a big-money deal. With the up-and-down Hosmer having racked up a litany of supporters and detractors since debuting with the Royals in 2011, the pact he secures in the coming weeks is sure to polarize.

Strengths/Pros

As mentioned, last season was one to remember for Hosmer, who slashed a personal-best .318/.385/.498 in 671 plate appearances, totaled exactly 25 home runs for the second straight year and posted career-high walk (9.8 percent) and isolated slugging (.179) marks. Only 24 players bettered Hosmer’s wRC+ (135), which placed him among the likes of Cody Bellinger (138), Justin Upton (137) and Anthony Rizzo (133). Hosmer’s hard-to-strike out ways contributed to his success, as he posted a K rate of just 15.5 percent that was right in line with his quality lifetime rate of 16.3. He also logged a swinging-strike rate below 10 percent (9.3) for the sixth time in seven seasons.

Eric Hosmer

The most recent campaign wasn’t exactly an outlier for Hosmer, who was similarly effective in 2013 and during the Royals’ World Series-winning 2015 campaign. Hosmer accumulated between 3.2 and 4.1 fWAR in all three of those seasons, and that type of output over the next several years would make him well worth a significant payday. At his zenith, Hosmer has been a high-end offensive producer who makes an above-average amount of contact, a skill that’s all the more valuable in today’s strikeout-heavy game.

Not to be overlooked, durability has been a staple of Hosmer’s career. He was one of five players who didn’t miss a game in 2017, and with the exception of his abbreviated rookie year and a 131-game showing in 2014, he has appeared in at least 152 contests in every season.

Weaknesses/Cons

Hosmer’s famed agent, Scott Boras, is trying to sell his client as a $200MM-caliber player who has been ’‘Playoffville Federal Express.” And yet, he’s only a two-time playoff participant – one who has batted a so-so .276/.333/.398 in 138 postseason PAs. Now, it’s not Hosmer’s fault the Royals haven’t been consistently good, nor is his playoff production worth judging him over. The point is that Boras is likely to have trouble getting anyone to buy that Hosmer is the ultimate winner whose intangibles are worth just as much as his regular-season numbers.

And while Hosmer has been terrific in three full seasons, he has also turned in three clunkers. In those years – 2012, ’14 and ’16 – he was a league-average or worse hitter who notched fWARs ranging from zero to minus-1.7. The left-hander’s offensive inconsistency has come thanks in part to struggles versus southpaws, against whom he has batted .265/.310/.382, and a groundball-heavy batted-ball profile.

Hosmer has finished with one of the majors’ 25 highest grounder rates in all of his seasons, including top five in each of the previous two years, and has typically sat toward the bottom of the launch angle leaderboard, as FanGraphs’ Travis Sawchik wrote earlier this month. The method hardly led to disaster in 2017, evidenced by Hosmer’s production, but a .351 batting average on balls in play had something to do with his excellence. Hosmer’s career BABIP entering the season was .310 – which is about what you’d expect from someone who’s not a burner (nor is he slow, granted) – and his lifetime wRC+ prior to last year’s outburst was an underwhelming 107.

Hosmer was also heavily reliant on BABIP fortune in his other two best seasons, while his production cratered in the years when the number was closer to the league-average mark. The bottom line is that Hosmer neither walks enough nor hits for enough power to make him ultra-valuable when he’s not registering a high average. Both his lifetime walk rate (8.2 percent) and ISO (.155) are mediocre.

The fWAR metric also factors in defense, which is yet another divisive aspect of Hosmer’s game. He’s got plenty of defensive hardware, having won four Gold Gloves (including in 2017), but fielding metrics haven’t always looked kindly on his work. Overall, Hosmer has combined for minus-21 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-29 Ultimate Zone Rating. Still, it’s unclear how much those numbers will weigh on teams that are interested in signing Hosmer, who’s mostly known for his offense.

Personal

As he told Tim Kurkjian of ESPN in March, the Florida-born Hosmer attributes much of his success to his parents – a father, Mike, who was a longtime firefighter and a mother, Ileana, who escaped Fidel Castro-led Cuba as a 9-year-old and became a nurse. With their support, Hosmer developed into a star prospect whom the Royals selected third overall in the 2008 draft. To secure Hosmer, the Royals handed him a $6MM signing bonus. He has since earned nearly $31MM as a major leaguer, per Baseball-Reference.

Off the field, Hosmer has been very active in the Kansas City community, including with Big Brothers Big Sisters and the Greater Kansas City Firefighters Local 42 Community Assistance organization. He’s a two-time nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, which is given yearly to the major leaguer who best combines community involvement with sportsmanship and contributions to his team. 

Market

Unfortunately for Hosmer, he’s not the only free agent first baseman coming off a nice 2017. Carlos Santana (who has a more consistent track record than Hosmer), Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso and Lucas Duda are also available in the wake of impressive seasons, while Jose Abreu will emerge as a sought-after target if the White Sox shop him. The amount of decent options available, not to mention the draft pick compensation attached to Hosmer, won’t positively affect his market. It also doesn’t help that the Mariners just acquired Ryon Healy, which seemingly took them out of the running for a first base upgrade, and the Yankees appear content with Greg Bird manning the position. But Boras has shown time and again that he’s capable of wizardry when it comes to selling his clients, and he’ll try to effectively pitch Hosmer to teams like the Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels and Rockies. If no one from that group ends up as Hosmer’s next employer, he could remain with the Royals, who haven’t given up on re-signing the franchise icon, or join a dark horse. The Padres would fall under the  “dark horse” category, and they have discussed a Hosmer pursuit.

Expected contract

Last winter was not an ideal one for free agent first basemen – the high-profile duo of Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Trumbo settled for lesser contracts than expected, as did lower-tier types (Chris Carter and Mike Napoli, to name a couple). A repeat of that would mean a disappointing offseason for Hosmer, though he still has youth and Boras on his side. The general feeling, then, is that he’ll reel in a nine-figure contract in the coming months. MLBTR, which projects a six-year, $132MM guarantee, is on the bandwagon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Outfielder Ah-Seop Son Staying In Korea

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Korean outfielder Ah-seop Son drew major league interest earlier this offseason, but he’s now off the market after agreeing to re-sign with the Lotte Giants of the KBO, Jeeho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports (on Twitter). The Giants gave Son a four-year contract worth $9.8 billion Korean won ($9MM USD), according to Yoo.

This isn’t the first offseason in which Son looked like a legitimate candidate to immigrate to the majors, only to remain in Korea. The Giants posted him back in 2015, but he stayed with the team after failing to garner any bids from major league clubs (notably, he would have not been subject to the posting system this winter). At the time, Son was coming off a five-year stretch in which he combined to bat .333/.409/.476 and add roughly 12 home runs and 16 stolen bases per season.

The 29-year-old Son continued his strong production in his hitter-friendly league over the previous two seasons, and he just turned in one of his best campaigns. Across 667 trips to the plate, Son slashed .335/.420/.514 with a personal-high 20 homers. He also stole 25 bags on 33 attempts and collected 83 walks against 96 strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani’s Agent Sends Memo To MLB Teams

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With Shohei Ohtani’s trip to the open market approaching, the phenom’s agent sent a memo on Friday to all major league teams requesting written explanations in both English and Japanese on why they’d be the right fit for the right-handed ace/left-handed slugger, as the Associated Press first reported.

Ohtani’s lead representative, Nez Balelo of CAA Sports, told teams not to include financial terms of a potential contract in their answers. But with Ohtani’s Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, primed to post him as early as Dec. 1, Balelo informed major league clubs that he’d like to receive their responses as soon as possible.

Here’s a rundown of the memo’s specifics, courtesy of Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times:

  1. “An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter;
  2. “Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities;
  3. “Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities;
  4. “Resources for Shohei’s cultural assimilation;
  5. “A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization;
  6. “Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play;
  7. “Relevant marketplace characteristics.”

While nothing listed above is particularly surprising, it’s the first real look at the factors that will influence the ballyhooed Ohtani’s decision when he officially becomes free to sign with any major league team. Thanks to the rules in the collective bargaining agreement, the 23-year-old Ohtani will have to sign an inexpensive minor league contract this offseason, and the fact that there’s a fairly even financial playing field figures to lead to interest from every big league team. It’s worth noting, though, that the Rangers, Yankees, Twins, Pirates, Marlins and Mariners are entering the Ohtani sweepstakes in the most advantageous positions in terms of international bonus pool space.

Of those six clubs, the Rangers, Yankees and Mariners have had the most success reeling in Japanese stars in the past, which may help in their attempts to win the Ohtani sweepstakes, but this is setting up to be either a 30-team battle royale or something close to it. The major league franchise that outdoes the other 29 in courting Ohtani will have to pay a maximum $20MM posting fee to his Japanese team, though that’s a relative pittance to secure a potential two-way superstar who could dramatically alter an organization both on and off the field.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, Yanks, Sabathia, Mariners, Iwakuma

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A few notes from around the game:

  • Much could change during the highly anticipated courting process, but George A. King III of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are seen throughout the industry as the favorites to land soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees are in an enviable position when it comes to available pool space, though it’s clear money isn’t Ohtani’s primary concern. Whether Ohtani goes to the Yankees may affect left-hander CC Sabathia’s future with the club, King posits, as they’d have a quintet of capable starters on hand with the newcomer joining Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery. So, while Sabathia wants to re-sign with the Yankees, an answer on his future might not come until at least late December if he waits out the Ohtani derby.
  • If the Mariners bring back free agent righty Hisashi Iwakuma, it’ll likely be on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, Greg Johns of MLB.com suggests. The 36-year-old Iwakuma revealed this week that he’s weighing an offer to re-sign with Seattle, which declined his $10MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout at season’s end, and Johns expects him to accept it.
  • Power is more prevalent than ever in baseball, but the ability to control the strike zone and make quality contract are less common, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet observes. While 117 players racked up 20 or more home runs last season, only 25 hit .300 or better, leading Nicholson-Smith to note that hitting ability may now be the toughest-to-find offensive skill. The piece, which is worth checking out in full, includes quotes from general managers David Forst (Athletics), A.J. Preller (Padres), Neal Huntington (Pirates), Mike Rizzo (Nationals) and Michael Girsch (Cardinals) about the current offensive landscape.

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