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Brewers Have Had Recent Talks With Craig Kimbrel

By Steve Adams | March 20, 2019 at 1:32pm CDT

TODAY: Discussions are “pretty serious,” per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

YESTERDAY, 11:26pm: While the two sides have indeed spoken, there’s no agreement close at the time being, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Haudricourt adds that the team’s payroll is already “stretched” after signing Grandal and Moustakas.

8:43pm: The Brewers are in discussions with free-agent reliever Craig Kimbrel, Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic report (via Twitter).

Should a deal come to fruition, the signing would seem similar to the team’s previous agreements with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas in that both landed in Milwaukee on shorter-term deals than anticipated. A match between Kimbrel and the Brewers, at least on paper, has looked plausible the longer his market seemed to stagnate. While the bullpen isn’t necessarily a need for a team that already has Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress, the latter of that trio is currently battling shoulder weakness, and Kimbrel would obviously deepen any team’s ’pen by pushing out its seventh- or eighth-best relief arm.

Kimbrel, 30, reportedly entered the offseason in search of a record contract that’d promise him six years and a total dollar value in excess of $100MM. Those terms, if indeed accurate, likely scared off a number of suitors early in free agency and led to Kimbrel’s stay on the open market lasting far longer than most would’ve anticipated. Certainly, that type of contract is unattainable for him now, though it’s still possible that Kimbrel could establish some type of record payday for a reliever. Currently, Wade Davis’ $17.33MM annual rate is the highest ever for a bullpen arm, and Kimbrel could still conceivably topple that mark.

That’d be serious money for a typically low-spending Brewers club that is already projected to open the season with a franchise-record $127.5MM payroll. Owner Mark Attanasio, however, has already given president of baseball operations David Stearns the green light to guarantee Grandal an $18.25MM salary on a one-year deal with a mutual option. And, the Brewers have every incentive to increase their spending given their recent NLCS run that provided increased revenue while simultaneously raising expectations surrounding the team.

Milwaukee has already surrendered its third-highest selection in the 2019 draft for signing Grandal, who rejected the Dodgers’ $17.9MM qualifying offer after the season. The Brewers would surrender their next-highest pick in order to sign Kimbrel, who also rejected a qualifying offer. The Brewers, though, are very much in a win-now mode, and their status as a non-luxury-tax-paying recipient of revenue sharing means they face a lower penalty for signing qualified free agents than CBT payors and teams that do not benefit from revenue sharing.

Brewers Release Josh Tomlin

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2019 at 11:41am CDT

The Brewers announced today that they have released right-hander Josh Tomlin. He had been in camp as a non-roster invitee after signing a minors deal but opted out of his deal, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports (via Twitter).

That news gives some clarity to the organization’s rotation picture, though Tomlin had a tough path to a big-league job regardless. With so many potential candidates for the rotation, and Jimmy Nelson readying for an early-season return, the Milwaukee organization was obviously not willing to commit a 40-man roster spot to Tomlin.

Tomlin evidently did not show enough in camp to force the Brewers’ hand. He has allowed eight earned runs with nine strikeouts and two walks in his 15 spring innings. Since the start of the 2016 season, Tomlin has managed only a 4.93 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 385 1/3 innings.

Tomlin will surely look around to see if there’s a more attractive opportunity elsewhere. If not, it appears the Brewers would consider re-signing the command artist to work at Triple-A, Haudricourt also notes on Twitter.

Anthony Rendon On Contract Talks With Nationals

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2019 at 10:59am CDT

The Nationals have held ongoing contract talks with third baseman Anthony Rendon, with optimism at times of reaching a long-term deal. But Rendon says he rejected an offer in late February (around the time that Nolan Arenado signed his new deal with the Rockies) and that talks have “kind of come to a halt lately,” as Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington reports.

It’s not known what the Nats dangled to Rendon when last the sides spoke in earnest. But the number “wasn’t to where we thought we should be,” per the 28-year-old.

While it seems that chatter hasn’t picked back up since, there’s still an opening to a possible deal. Rendon says that the Nationals told him “we’re going to continue to talk.” And it seems that he’s still open to working something out. But it’s now more clear than ever that Rendon will be demanding full market value for his future services and that he’s plenty willing instead to play out the 2019 season and hit the open market.

As Rendon put it: “If [an extension] happens, it happens, if it doesn’t it doesn’t.”

Even as the sides have batted around scenarios, other teams and players have lined up on deals. Several third-base price points have hit the books, in fact. It’s hard to draw much from the deal reached yesterday between the Astros and pre-arbitration infield Alex Bregman, but Manny Machado’s free-agent contract with the Padres (ten years, $300MM) and Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies (seven years, $234MM) are plenty relevant.

While Rendon is older than both Machado and Arenado, he’s less than a year senior to the latter. Even if Rendon would need to take a shorter pact, the average annual values of those contracts — $30MM and $33.4MM, respectively — seem within reason for the long-time Nationals infielder. Both of his contemporaries are more visible players, to be sure, but Rendon has edged them both in fWAR over the past three seasons.

Prior indications were that Rendon sought a contract of the sort previously agreed to between Jose Altuve and the Astros (five years, $151MM). Whether that is in fact his asking price, and if so how close the Nats will come to reaching it, remains to be seen.

Astros Extend Ryan Pressly

By Steve Adams | March 20, 2019 at 10:26am CDT

TODAY: This deal is now official. The option vests with sixty appearances apiece in 2021 and 2022, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets.

YESTERDAY, 8:35pm: The vesting option is based on appearances and is worth $10MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.

8:11pm: The two sides have an agreement in place, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets.

8:01pm: The Astros and right-hander Ryan Pressly are close to finalizing a two-year extension worth a guaranteed $17.5MM, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. The deal would kick in beginning with the 2020 season, paying him $8.75MM that year and again in 2021, with a vesting option for a third season. He’s already earning $2.9MM in 2019 after avoiding arbitration and was set to become a free agent at season’s end. Pressly is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Pressly, 30, joined the Astros in a midseason that sent prospects Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala to the Twins in July. Already in the midst of a strong season in Minnesota, Pressly became an all-out buzzsaw in the late innings with Houston. Pressly, who attributed his breakout to the Astros’ analytics department and its presentation of data to players, pitched to a 0.77 ERA with a 32-to-3 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 regular-season innings following the trade. He tacked on another five innings and allowed one run in the postseason.

A former Rule 5 pick by the Twins out of the Red Sox system, Pressly steadily improved his K/BB numbers from 2015-18, and his improvement in ’18 has the look of a potential elite weapon for the Astros moving forward. No reliever in baseball topped Pressly in terms of curveball spin rate — Garrett Richards was the only pitcher in all of MLB to best him in that regard — and the spin rate on Pressly’s fastball ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers.

He also ranked in the top five percent of the league in terms of overall strikeout percentage and several Statcast metrics (including expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average). Whether looking at traditional stats or newer metrics, Pressly was an overpowering force in 2018, and the Astros apparently had no interest in letting him get to the open market.

While that dominance hasn’t been sustained over a multi-year stint yet, there’s still an argument that Pressly could’ve reached free agency next winter as the market’s most desirable reliever. He hasn’t yet reached even $7MM in career earnings, so it’s easy to see why would take the security of a guaranteed payday worth two and a half times what he’s banked since his MLB debut. But, the relatively short-term nature of the deal and the $8.75MM annual rate could both have been topped with a similarly strong 2019 campaign; Adam Ottavino, for instance, parlayed a 2018 season that was not as dominant as Pressly’s into a three-year deal worth $27MM. Extensions are always a question of risk tolerance, though, and Pressly’s annual value is commensurate the annual rates attained by Ottavino and Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM with the Dodgers).

Mookie Betts Does Not Expect To Reach Extension With Red Sox

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2019 at 9:49am CDT

In the midst of a run of extensions around the game — in particular, yesterday’s $360MM Mike Trout agreement — Red Sox star Mookie Betts faced another round of questions about his future in Boston from reporters including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (links to Twitter). While he again expressed that he’s fond of the organization, Betts left little doubt that he’s not moving off of his price point for his post-arbitration years.

Betts acknowledged having received prior offers from the Red Sox. To this point, they simply haven’t met his understandably lofty self-valuation. It was reported yesterday that the team dangled $200MM in advance of the 2018 season. That was a hefty offer under the circumstances, but Betts has little cause to regret turning it down. He went on to turn in a hugely productive season and take home American League MVP honors, setting himself up for a record-setting run through arbitration and untold riches thereafter.

When asked whether he expects to open the present season without a long-term deal, Betts responded:

“That’s exactly what I expect. Didn’t expect anything to happen until I’m a free agent.”

It certainly doesn’t sound as if there’s much cause for optimism for a deal to come together before Betts hits the open market after the 2020 season. While nothing can be ruled out, as the 26-year-old hasn’t indicated that he’s altogether opposed to listening to offers, he’ll evidently demand that the Red Sox put quite a bit more money on the table than they have to this point.

Betts offered another hint about his own views on his value and how he intends to pursue a contract that matches it. While he called some of the recent extensions “great deals” for the players involved, he also noted that “some of them could’ve gotten more.”

Rays Extend Brandon Lowe

By Steve Adams | March 20, 2019 at 9:34am CDT

TODAY: Tampa Bay has announced the deal. It could top out at $49MM in total value if both options are exercised and all incentives are reached, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported.

YESTERDAY: The Rays have agreed to a six-year, $24MM contract extension with infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The contract contains a pair of club options that would buy out a pair of would-be free-agent seasons as well. Lowe is a client of the Bledsoe Agency.

Lowe has just 43 games of Major League experience under his belt but is widely regarded as one of the Rays’ most promising prospects. Baseball America rated him as the game’s No. 93 prospect this offseason, while Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs ranked him 46th overall.

The early returns on Lowe in the Major Leagues were relatively promising. The 2015 third-rounder reached the Majors for the first time at the age of 23 and batted .233/.324/.450 with six home runs, six doubles, a pair of triples and two stolen bases (in three attempts). Context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (112) and wRC+ (113) felt his bat was 12 to 13 percent better than that of a league-average hitter when adjusting for league and home park.

Lowe’s 25.6 strikeout rate was likely a bit higher than the Rays would prefer, but he showed power and drew walks at a 10.8 percent clip in his first crack at MLB opposition. That production came on the heels of a sensational .297/.391/.558 slash between Double-A and Triple-A, creating further optimism that Lowe can be an integral part of the Rays moving forward.

Defensively, Lowe has spent the bulk of his career as a second baseman, though he got his feet wet with more than 500 innings of work in the outfield corners last season (between the Majors and minors). Scouting reports have generally projected him as a potentially average defender at second, though he’s considered to be more of a bat-first player.

It’s unusual but not unheard of for teams to lock up players with such minimal MLB experience, and the Rays in particular have done so in past years with both Evan Longoria and Matt Moore. Lowe’s deal will line up identically to the Phillies’ six-year, $24MM deal with Scott Kingery — a contract signed before Kingery even played an MLB game.

There’s certainly risk to committing to a player so early in his professional career, but the $24MM risk is one all the more worth taking for a low-payroll club like the Rays that typically has a great deal of difficulty hanging onto quality players as their arbitration earnings increase. For Lowe, he could potentially have earned more over the course of his three arb seasons — and the option years are sure to be at an affordable rate — but the allure of locking in a sizable guaranteed payday when his first arbitration season is still three years away is understandable. If both of the club options on the deal are ultimately exercised, he’ll reach free agency a few months after his 32nd birthday.

Lowe now joins Kevin Kiermaier as the only Rays players to be guaranteed anything beyond the 2020 season. Charlie Morton, set to earn $15MM in both 2019 and 2020, is the only other player whose contract for the 2020 season is guaranteed at the moment. Of course, given the Rays’ wealth of young talent, it’s quite likely that they’ll explore further extension possibilities between now and Opening Day.

Royals Shift Ian Kennedy To Bullpen

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2019 at 8:33am CDT

The Royals announced yesterday that they will utilize veteran right-hander Ian Kennedy as a reliever this year, as Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star was among those to report.

Kennedy, 34, says he’s up for the switch despite having made only a pair of prior relief appearances way back in 2008-09. In the intervening nine seasons, Kennedy has taken the ball to open 277 MLB contests.

Last year was the first season since 2009 in which Kennedy failed to make thirty starts. It also represented a confirmation of his struggles from the season prior. In total, over his past 273 2/3 innings, Kennedy has mustered only a 5.06 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 1.8 HR/9.

Kennedy’s still throwing as hard as before and appears to be getting similar movement on his pitches, but the league has clearly figured him out. His swinging-strike rate has dwindled down to 8.2% and opposing hitters have made hard contact on about four in ten balls in play over the past two seasons.

Frankly, these developments aren’t altogether surprising for a hurler who hit the 2015-16 market as a highly durable but rarely dominant middle/back-of-the-rotation arm. Kennedy was an accomplished hurler and drew mid-3 ERA equivalency grades from xFIP and SIERA in the two seasons before he reached free agency. Still, he had long battled home run problems that led to inconsistent results despite generally excellent K/BB numbers.

Even in that very different market setting — several other pitchers secured very large deals that winter with less-than-dominant track records — Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM contract was surprising. As former MLBTR scribe Charlie Wilmoth put it, “the financial outlay of the deal looks rather generous even before considering the opt-out.” Entering the offseason, we had predicted four years and $52MM.

The Kansas City organization knew the risks, but understandably wanted maximize its chances of winning another World Series after capturing a crown in a magical 2015 season. Kennedy did manage nearly two hundred innings of 3.68 ERA ball in the first year of his deal, but the peripherals told a different story.

Now, the Royals are paying what’s left of the tab for doubling down on a historic contention window. Kennedy accounts for two hefty line items: $16.5MM salaries in 2019 and 2020.

Looking at the present roster, bumping Kennedy will somewhat ironically open the door for Homer Bailey to join the starting staff. The oft-injured hurler is still due $23MM this year along with a $5MM buyout on what was once a 2020 option. Bailey was cut loose by the Dodgers entering the final year of the big extension that he signed with the Reds and which was shipped to Los Angeles this winter. The K.C. org will owe him only the MLB minimum.

Bailey will get a shot at redemption in Kansas City. Kennedy, meanwhile, will try to carve out a second act as a reliever while remaining available as a depth option should a rotation need arise.

Michael Fulmer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2019 at 8:07am CDT

TODAY: Fulmer will indeed undergo the procedure, he tells reporters including Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter).

YESTERDAY: Tigers righty Michael Fulmer has received a recommendation that he undergo Tommy John surgery, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports on Twitter. He’d stand to miss the entire 2019 season and in all likelihood a portion of the 2020 campaign as well.

Fulmer’s medical status has been a bit of a mystery of late, but this news comes as a surprise. He had been shut down recently, purportedly to work on mechanical issues tied to his recovery from last season’s knee surgery, but obviously was dealing with something else entirely. Fulmer had shown a worrying loss of velocity this spring after turning in a subpar, injury-marred 2018 campaign.

It’s not yet certain that Fulmer will go under the knife, but that seems to be far and away the likeliest outcome. Per the Tigers, both a team doctor and noted surgeon Dr. James Andrews have already recommended that Fulmer receive a full replacement of his ulnar collateral ligament.

This is hardly the news anyone wanted for Fulmer, who reached his 26th birthday just days ago. Fortunately for the righty, he already agreed to a $2.8MM salary for the coming season. On the bright side for the club, they won the arbitration hearing and thus avoided a larger payout.

In all likelihood, the Tigers will end up paying Fulmer that $2.8MM both this season and next, while hoping he’ll be able to contribute by the middle of the 2020 campaign. Fulmer is controllable in 2021 and 2022 as well. His earning power in those years will depend upon what he’s able to do in ’20; it’ll unquestionably be diminished by the lengthy absence.

The Detroit organization has thus far centered its rebuilding effort on young pitching, with a series of interesting arms moving up through the ranks. It seemed through his first two seasons in the majors that Fulmer might be a veteran anchor for the next great Tigers staff — or, instead, a big trade chip who’d reel in loads of young talent.

That outlook already changed last year, as Fulmer struggled to a 4.69 ERA in 132 1/3 innings. During his excellent debut campaign and solid follow-up effort, Fulmer’s unexciting strikeout numbers were explained away by some. The line was that his overpowering arsenal and ability to induce weak contact made it unnecessary for Fulmer to rack of Ks. The narrative shifted over the course of the 2018 season. Even as hard contact rose (39.5%), his groundball rate (44.2%) and home run suppression (1.29 per nine innings, 14.5% HR/FB rate) dove despite steady 96 mph velocity readings on his fastball.

Perhaps Fulmer would have found his way back to being a high-quality starter had he not encountered knee issues that ultimately resulted in a meniscus procedure. The connection between that joint, his reduced velo this spring, and his problematic elbow isn’t completely clear, but it certainly seems plausible that all are interrelated. He’ll now have a lengthy absence to work through the varying health issues. If all goes well, Fulmer could return to be a quality hurler once more.

Injury/Rehab Notes: Kershaw, Jeffress, Nelson, Darvish, Phillies

By Steve Adams | March 19, 2019 at 10:44pm CDT

It’s been a fait accompli for weeks now, but Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts made it official today that Clayton Kershaw will open the season on the injured list (link via Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times). Kershaw has been slowed by inflammation in his left shoulder for much of the spring and has not been pitching in Cactus League games recently. He’ll face live hitters tomorrow, per Castillo. There’s no indication at present that Kershaw will miss a substantial portion of the upcoming season. Castillo, in fact, notes that Kershaw won’t pitch in the upcoming series of exhibition games against the Angels, beginning on Sunday, because withholding him will allow the Dodgers to back-date his IL placement by the maximum three days (thus creating the possibility of an earlier return). It’s been a month since Kershaw has thrown in a game setting, though, so there’s still some work to be done in terms of getting him back up to speed.

A few more updates on some notable injury situations…

Both Jeremy Jeffress and Jimmy Nelson will open the season on the injured list, Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns confirmed today (Twitter links, with video, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt). The concern regarding each player appears to be relatively mild, as Stearns even emphasized that Jeffress isn’t so much hurt as he is dealing with weakness in his shoulder while trying to build up strength. Stearns declined to place a definitive timeline on either pitcher but indicated that it’s plausible that Jeffress could return to the team before the end of April. Nelson, meanwhile, will jump right into rehab games for Triple-A San Antonio to open the season, and he’ll be further evaluated after his first couple of starts.
Cubs fans braced for bad news when trainers visited Yu Darvish on the mound today and the righty exited the game, however the ailment in question proved to be minor. The Cubs announced that Darvish exited the game with a blister, and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets that the right-hander doesn’t even expect to miss a start. Darvish cut the blister open while throwing a breaking ball on what proved to be his final pitch of the afternoon.
Phillies right-hander Tommy Hunter and outfield hopeful Roman Quinn are expected to open the 2019 season on the injured list, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Hunter has been slowed by a flexor strain this spring, while Quinn is sidelined for now due to an oblique strain. Quinn’s placement on the IL buys the Phillies a little bit of time in determining how to sort out their outfield picture. With Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen locked into the corners, the Phillies have four remaining outfielders — Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Quinn — with minimal at-bats to go around. That situation is complicated further by the fact that Altherr and Quinn are both out of minor league options. Something will have to give eventually, but until Quinn is up to full strength, the Phillies can continue to keep him and Altherr both in the organization.

Padres’ Jacob Nix Diagnosed With UCL Damage

By Steve Adams | March 19, 2019 at 10:30pm CDT

10:30pm: The Padres are currently terming Nix’s injury a “low-grade UCL sprain,” per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (Twitter link). The current plan is six to eight weeks of rest before he resumes a throwing program, though the second opinion he receives from Dr. ElAttrache will impact the ultimate course of action.

7:40pm: Padres right-hander Jacob Nix has a “small” tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. He’ll be evaluated by Dr. Neal ElAttrache before determining whether to undergo surgery. Depending on the extent of the tear, Nix could opt for a non-surgical route — platelet-rich plasma and stem cell injections are sometimes prescribed for UCL tears — though the mention of any degree of UCL tear immediately brings Tommy John surgery to mind.

At the very least, Nix’s injury takes him out of consideration for a rotation spot at any point in the early portion of the 2019 season. He’s one of numerous young Padres arms viewed as potential long-term options in the rotation, a rough 2018 MLB debut notwithstanding. Last season, Nix reached the Majors at the age of 22 but was tattooed for a 7.02 ERA in 42 1/3 innings — a marked departure from the 2.05 ERA, 7.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 he logged in 52 2/3 innings of Double-A ball.

Even with Nix sidelined indefinitely, the Padres have a promising group of young arms on which to build. Joey Lucchesi established himself as a viable MLB starter last season, while prospect Chris Paddack has turned heads with a brilliant spring to date (to say nothing of his top 100 prospect billing and excellent minor league numbers in 2018). Lefties Matt Strahm, Eric Lauer and Logan Allen could start games for San Diego early in the season, as could Robbie Erlin — the de facto “elder statesman” of the group (though he’s just 28 years of age himself). Beyond that grouping is another wave of pitching talent featuring names like Cal Quantrill, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon and MacKenzie Gore, giving the Friars a wealth of pitching depth that few organizations can match.

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