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Angels To Sign Sam Freeman

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The Angels have agreed to a contract with lefty Sam Freeman, according to reports. It’s a minors deal, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Freeman, 31, was just cut loose by the Braves. He had been tendered a $1.375MM contract by the Atlanta organization and received 45 days of that as severance pay.

Last year, Freeman worked to a 4.29 ERA over 50 1/3 innings. He carried a 52.1% groundball rate and 10.4 K/9, but also dished out 5.7 free passes per nine innings.

The Halos had a need for veteran lefties after the recent decision to drop Dan Jennings. It doesn’t seem that Freeman will head onto the MLB roster to open the year, but he’ll be a prime candidate to ascend at some point. The club’s current MLB depth chart doesn’t include any southpaws in the pen.

Mets Extend Jacob deGrom

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TODAY: The deal includes $52.5MM in deferred money, all without interest, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). $12MM in 2020, $13.5MM in 2021, $15MM in 2022, and $12MM in 2023 will all be pushed to the future. There’ll also be a $15MM deferral on the 2024 option, if it’s picked up.

The deferred money will be pushed back 15 years, per Ron Blum of the AP, which sets up a series of payouts beginning in 2035. Amusingly, and surely not coincidentally, deGrom’s payments will seamlessly take over the slot long occupied by annual payouts to former player Bobby Bonilla, Mike Mayer of Metsmerized notes on Twitter.

Those extensive deferrals clearly reduce the true value of the contract, though the precise amount depends upon what discount rate is utilized. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the $137.5MM owed to deGrom in the future has been assigned a present-day valuation of $108.9MM, though it’s unclear what basis was used to reach that number.

YESTERDAY, 4:52pm: The Mets have formally announced deGrom’s extension.

“This is a tremendous day for Jacob, his family, our fans and the entire Mets organization,” Mets COO Jeff Wilpon said in the press release announcing the contract. “Last year, Jacob had one of the most remarkable seasons in baseball history and we are excited to be able to reward him. Mets fans can celebrate knowing their ace will remain in Flushing.”

7:36am: The Mets have agreed to terms on an extension with star right-hander Jacob deGrom, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter links). deGrom, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, is undergoing a physical today. The contract includes four years and $120.5MM in new money, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported (Twitter links), with some of it deferred.

Earlier this year, deGrom agreed to a $17MM arbitration contract for the 2019 season. That effectively remains in place, though it is now restructured as a $10MM signing bonus and $7MM salary, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. What would have been deGrom’s final arbitration season, 2020, will be locked in at $23MM. He’ll then earn $33.5MM in each of the next two seasons and $30.5MM in 2023 — if he does not first opt out. The option-year value is $32.5MM, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets.

If indeed a deal is finalized, it’d bring an end to a long-running and rather fascinating saga regarding deGrom’s future. It was just last summer that deGrom’s then-agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, was advocating that the team either work out an extension or trade the ace right-hander. In a cinematic twist, Van Wagenen became the Mets’ general manager last fall, recusing himself from direct extension talks with deGrom while the pitcher chose to remain with the same agency (CAA Baseball). (That recusal concept was evidently of rather limited scope, or has since been modified or waived, as Sherman tweets that Van Wagenen was personally on hand for the final negotiations.)

The sides held preliminary talks at the Winter Meetings, but then a lengthy silent period ensued. After agreeing to a 2019 arbitration salary, which included a record-setting $9.6MM raise, the deGrom camp put an Opening Day deadline on talks, so the clock was ticking. It seemed hopeful as camp opened that a deal would materialize, but the more recent vibe was much less promising. But Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweeted yesterday that talks were still ongoing, with Michael Mayer of MetsMerizedOnline adding on Twitter that there was some forward progress toward a deal.

As it turns out, the sides lined up on a contract that understandably includes some concessions in both directions. deGrom will turn 31 this June and was not set to reach the open market until the conclusion of the 2020 campaign. Compare that to Chris Sale, whose recent extension came just before his 30th birthday and entering his final season of contractual control. (Of course, the lefty was also coming off of an injury-limited second half to the 2018 season.) Sale’s contract provided five seasons and $145MM in new earnings; he’ll pitch the entire final season of that deal at 35 years of age. deGrom receives a slightly higher AAV, even though the first new contract year covers an arb-eligible season, and will celebrate his 35th birthday in the middle of his final guaranteed season (if he hasn’t already opted out).

Both of those outstanding hurlers might have found greater riches in free agency. Sale would’ve been the top arm available this coming winter, while deGrom surely would’ve been among the most desirable free agents of the 2020-21 offseason. Zack Greinke had already turned 32 when he secured a six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. But that deal seemed an outlier when it was signed and the market has since shifted. Clayton Kershaw hadn’t yet turned 31 and had produced nothing but excellent results when he re-upped with the Dodgers last fall, but settled for a three-year pact after experiencing back issues and peripheral declines.

There’s also ample risk in pitching a full MLB season, so extensions have generally lagged free agency in value to a greater extent than is the case for position players. A few still-youthful hurlers nearing free agency have secured bigger money — Kershaw didn’t quite reach $200MM in his first long-term contract if you deduct his anticipated arbitration salary from that season; Stephen Strasburg secured $175MM over seven new seasons part-way through his final year of team control. But otherwise, the largest pitching extensions have gone to Sale ($145MM), Cole Hamels ($144.5MM), and Justin Verlander ($140MM).

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

For their money, the Mets will secure the services of one of the game’s very best hurlers for most or all of his remaining productive campaigns. Never overly hyped as a prospect, deGrom’s early development was slowed by Tommy John surgery. But he emerged in 2014, earning a call-up to the majors and succeeding beyond any reasonable expectations. While he was never much of a strikeout pitcher in the minors, deGrom steadily maintained about a K per inning in his early seasons. He began ramping that up further in 2017, which was also his first 200-plus-inning campaign, but didn’t really take the next step until last year.

Entering the 2018 campaign, deGrom carried a 2.98 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 through 680 2/3 career innings. There had been a few health wobbles along the way but he was, by and large, a durable and thoroughly excellent pitcher. It seemed there wasn’t much more ceiling to reach, but he unquestionably found it.

Ramping up his velocity (96.7 mph average fastball) and increasingly shelving his sinker in favor of his two offspeed offerings (change and slider; combined usage of 40%) helped deGrom boost his swinging-strike rate to a career-high 15.1%. He drove his strikeout rate up to a personal-best 11.2 K/9 while maintaining a typically sparkling 1.9 BB/9 walk rate, cut back on the home run issues that had cropped up a bit in 2017, and induced nearly as much soft contact (25.2%) as he allowed hard contact (26.6%).

The results followed those impressive underlying numbers. deGrom finished the 2018 campaign with 217 innings of 1.70 ERA ball. Unsurprisingly, given the off-the-charts earned run outcomes, ERA estimators felt there was a bit of good fortune mixed in — but not enough to detract from deGrom’s excellence. He was credited with 1.99 FIP, 2.60 xFIP, and 2.78 SIERA.

Nothing is assured in this world, least of all when it comes to future pitching performance. But deGrom seems about as good a bet as any veteran hurler to keep producing into his mid-thirties. His ability to maintain top physical form will perhaps dictate the extent to which he can approach his newly established personal heights, but his multi-pitch arsenal and impeccable command seem to provide about as much of a floor as any starter.

The upside in the contract is plainly limited by deGrom’s age, but that doesn’t mean the Mets can’t hope to achieve good value. The organization will still retain a fair bit of payroll flexibility after the 2020 season, the final year of obligations to Yoenis Cespedes and a few other pricey veterans. deGrom knocks Cespedes off of the organization’s financial Mt. Rushmore, joining David Wright, Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran to make up the four largest contracts in Mets history.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians To Select Contract Of Hanley Ramirez, Place Francisco Lindor On IL

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The Indians have announced a pair of notable roster decisions, as MLB.com’s Mandy Bell was among those to cover (Twitter links). Hanley Ramirez has been informed he’ll be on the roster, while star shortstop Francisco Lindor will begin the year on the 10-day injured list.

Neither of these moves represents much of a surprise, but they’re still notable. Ramirez will earn at a $1MM rate in the big leagues under his minors deal, which also includes incentives — the details of which remain unreported. It’s not yet known if he’ll be asked (and whether he’ll agree) to sign an advance-consent form.

Lindor was already a candidate to open the year on ice owing to a calf strain, but he’ll now need treatment on another lower-leg ailment as well. The club says that the shortstop suffered an “acute ankle sprain” in a baserunning mishap yesterday. It’s a “mild to moderate” sprain, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tweets. His precise timeline is not yet known.

Angels Acquire Adrian Rondon From Rays

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The Angels have acquired infielder Adrian Rondon from the Rays, per club announcements. Cash considerations are headed in the other direction.

When he was inked back in 2014 out of his native Dominican Republic to a ~$3MM bonus, Rondon was considered a top talent. Now twenty years of age, he has yet to move past the Class A level and carries only a .206/.271/.321 batting line through parts of four professionals seasons.

Rondon’s outlook on the field is at best uncertain, but the Halos will see if they can unlock some of his former promise. He’ll join another fading young prospect with a top-notch pedigree, Kevin Maitan, in the Los Angeles farm system.

Mets To Select Contract Of Pete Alonso

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The Mets are preparing to select the contract of first base prospect Pete Alonso, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). He’ll make the Opening Day roster — a possibility that grew throughout camp and that Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted recently was slated to take place.

Alonso’s path to the roster was cleared by injuries to Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie, but he may have forced his way up regardless. The 24-year-old has slugged his way up the prospect charts in recent years, drawing top-50 consensus rankings from prospect hounds after the 2018 season. He continued to drive the ball this spring, turning in a .368/.394/.647 slash with four home runs in 71 plate appearances against Grapefruit League pitching.

When it comes to prospect promotions, service time is always a major  consideration. Even those players who are deemed ready for the big leagues and necessary for the roster may beheld down briefly to ensure they do not secure a full season of MLB service. Those considerations were no doubt part of the equation when Alonso failed to receive a September call-up last year.

In this case, though, there’s arguably not much reason for the Mets to stay their hand. First and foremost, Alonso is a 24-year-old first baseman who has played a full year in the upper minors — not, say, a 20-year-old shortstop who’s considered one of the very best prospects in baseball. Even if Alonso is never sent back down, the club will control him throughout his twenties.

Alonso’s age-30 season could well be a valuable one, but it’s not nearly so precious as the extra season might be for some other top prospects. That’s particularly true since hitter’s aging curves are hewing younger and toward a consistent downward trajectory. Alonso is a player whose value is expected to come more or less exclusively from his bat, so it’s all the more sensible to go ahead and bring him up. And if he doesn’t produce from the outset, or the roster situation otherwise demands it, the club can always shuttle him back to Triple-A and gain back that added year of control.

It’ll certainly be fun to see Alonso take the field alongside the many other new faces in New York and the rest of the NL East. The division promises to be a battle all year long. His ability to thrive out of the gates could have a meaningful impact for a club that doesn’t know whether or when it’ll see Yoenis Cespedes in its lineup.

Since he was drafted in the second round in 2016, Alonso has steadily produced in just over a thousand plate appearances of professional action. He’s a .290/.381/.560 hitter in the minors, with 59 total home runs (including 36 in the 2018 season) and 114 walks to go with 221 strikeouts. That’s a rather well-rounded profile, though power remains the calling card.

Defense and baserunning will likely never be strong suits, but the hope is that Alonso will hit enough that those factors will largely fade to the background. There aren’t really any major concerns with the bat, but his track record isn’t flawless. Even as he reached new power heights last year at Triple-A, Alonso’s strikeout rate popped up to 25.9%. He still managed a double-digit walk rate at the highest level of the minors, but the on-base outlook still comes with some uncertainty. Alonso will need to maintain a high batting average (as he did until ascending to Triple-A) or boost his walk rate to be a truly outstanding offensive producer.

The Market Situation For Dallas Keuchel

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Precisely why Dallas Keuchel remains unemployed isn’t entirely known or even knowable. Perhaps he squandered early market opportunities with too high an asking price. It may be that he’s still holding out unrealistic demands. On the other side, clubs are arguably far too willing to roll the dice on fresh young arms. Perhaps they’re too determined to maintain mid-season and future financial flexibility at the expense of immediate, season-long improvements.

[RELATED: Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel]

The market has been quiet. Last we heard any news on Keuchel, agent Scott Boras said that the accomplished hurler was building up arm strength just as he would have in a team’s camp. While the market situation remains extremely foggy, Boras added that offers were still coming in. Keuchel still isn’t willing to take a “pillow contract,” Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets today, so it seems he’s still holding out hope for a multi-year arrangement of some kind. He could follow the Kendrys Morales approach of waiting until the June draft to sign, thus shedding the requirement that a signing team surrender draft compensation, but that’s hardly the preferred means of procuring a desirable, long-term deal.

The real question remains: what teams are really motivated to go after Keuchel? We’ve looked previously at the market setting for the other unsigned hurler of note, Craig Kimbrel. Now we’ll do so with respect to Keuchel, taking a somewhat different angle of approach. While both are entering age-31 seasons in search of big money, with potential luxury tax ramifications for the signing team, their different pitching roles make for different market circumstances.

Rather than trying to create labels or categories, we’ll just run through the possibilities in narrative form. Here’s how the market breaks down …

It’s rarely wise to rule out teams entirely, but some teams lack the outlook and resources to be worthy of further consideration. The Orioles and Marlins can safely be scratched off the list of possibilities. It’d be nothing short of shocking to see the Royals make such a move when the club is already pushing high-priced starters into the bullpen. While the Giants and Rangers have much greater spending capacity, they’ve already got staffs full of veterans that include some significant financial commitments. The Tigers also seem to have already placed their bets for the coming season.

Neither is it really possible to envision a path for certain teams that have real hopes of winning seasons in 2019. The Indians and Pirates are low-budget contenders that don’t have the need to spend in the rotation; the Cubs and Red Sox are big-budget contenders that have full starting units and have probably already committed their 2019 payroll.

It’s not much easier to see a variety of other contending teams as Keuchel pursuers, though as we go down the line it becomes somewhat easier to imagine a move. The Boras connection to the Nationals means you can never say never, but the organization wants to stay below the luxury line and already has promised rotation spots to give hurlers. While some injuries arguably create an opening for the Dodgers, they still have ample options on hand and it’s tough to imagine them shoe-horning yet another pitcher onto their 40-man.  Similarly, the Yankees have options — a trio of young arms holding down the fort with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Gio Gonzalez waiting in the wings — but could still stand to stamp out some uncertainty. In years past, one or more of these clubs might have shrugged and thrown a stack of cash at Keuchel. It doesn’t feel very likely in this climate, particularly with the luxury tax implications for all of these clubs.

Several lesser-spending teams arguably make more sense on paper, but still feel unlikely. The Rockies, Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers could upgrade a rotation spot and boost their depth by adding Keuchel, but all likely feel it wouldn’t be enough of an improvement to warrant the cost with other, more pressing areas of need on their rosters.

Perhaps there’s a bit more cause for a pair of other National League clubs to consider a bold move. Like the above-mentioned teams, the value of a win is quite high given the densely packed divisions. But there’s a stronger case for Keuchel in particular for the Mets and Phillies. Both organizations have already already spent big on veterans. The former could bite the bullet and knock Jason Vargas out of the rotation. The latter could plug the higher-floor Keuchel into the starting unit while deploying Vince Velasquez as a potentially fascinating multi-inning reliever.

There’s at least an argument to be made for some other teams to take a look at the right price, even if the move would largely be future-oriented. Several American League clubs are lining up for a 2020 push — and surely also realize there’s at least some opening to surprise in the current year. At the right price point, Keuchel could be a value on a multi-year deal. The Mariners are always tinkering. The White Sox missed on their biggest targets. The Blue Jays added a few low-cost veterans but have tons of rotation uncertainty now and in the future. And on the NL side, the Diamondbacks are attempting to stay competitive while undergoing some roster changes.

Here’s about where things start to get interesting. The Rays already spent on Charlie Morton, but could consider Keuchel on much the same theory if the deal is short enough in length. While the Twins picked up Martin Perez to fill out their rotation, and have some younger depth pieces as well, the teams still has only meager future commitments and a big opportunity in the division.Neither of these teams really wants to spend on Keuchel past the present season, but there’s an argument that both should strongly consider making an exception.

Hopping over to the AL West, there are three clubs that make some degree of sense. The incumbent Astros know Keuchel better than anyone. They have kept in touch all winter long and remain an obvious fall-back spot, though it doesn’t seem they’ll move up their offer with so many internal options still available. The Angels and Athletics have ample need in the rotation. The public indications are that they’re fresh out of spending availability, but both organizations could justify stretching for Keuchel at this time.

Perhaps no teams in baseball make greater sense, though, than the Padres and Braves. It’s already an eye-popping offseason in San Diego, with Manny Machado coming aboard and top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack making the Opening Roster, but the club’s rotation is still loaded with uncertainty. The Atlanta organization is defending a division title against three strong adversaries, has made it clear it has financial resources available now and in the future, and has seen several notable health questions arise in camp.

It’s hard to call any team in baseball an obvious favorite at this point. An injury could change the field quite a bit, though it’s anyone’s guess whether and when that might occur and Keuchel’s appeal as an immediate option will not exactly grow as he sits on the sidelines. It’s a tough spot for the veteran.

Roster Decisions: Braves, Jays, Tigers, Twins

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With Opening Day nearly upon us, here are a few of the notable roster decisions from around the game …

  • Right-hander Wes Parsons and non-roster invitees Matt Joyce and Josh Tomlin have made the Braves’ Opening Day roster, the team announced to reporters today (Twitter link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Meanwhile, as The Athletic’s David O’Brien writes, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright will be a part of Atlanta’s rotation to begin the season. That makes for quite an interesting and unexpected collection of roster pieces. The club is waiting to finalize its roster completely while evaluating external options.
  • Right-hander Trent Thornton, whom the Blue Jays acquired in exchange for Aledmys Diaz this winter, will be Toronto’s fourth starter to open the season, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet tweets. Fellow righty Sam Gaviglio will open the year as a long man in the bullpen. In other decisions for the Jays, also via Davidi, the club has decided to keep Rule 5 righty Elvis Luciano despite some rocky moments this spring. Southpaw Thomas Pannone and infielder Richard Urena are also heading north, with the team’s final roster spot still up for grabs. It may go to Bud Norris if he’s ready, says Davidi, with the team also pondering Javy Guerra while eyeing outside possibilities.
  • The Tigers have informed righty Spencer Turnbull that he’ll be in the rotation to begin the season, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. He took that job over lefty Daniel Norris, who’ll open the year in the bullpen. Norris will work in a long capacity, with the goal being to keep him stretched out in case a starting spot comes open. Turnbull, 26, earned the nod with an excellent spring showing: 15 frames of 1.80 ERA pitching with 15 strikeouts and just a pair of walks. The former second-round pick reached the big leagues briefly last year, but spent most of his ’18 season at Double-A. He pitched to a 4.47 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 98 2/3 innings over 19 starts at the penultimate level of the minors.
  • In one of the better stories of Spring Training, Ryne Harper has made the Twins’ Opening Day roster, as manager Rocco Baldelli recently announced (Twitter link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Harper, who turns thirty today, enjoyed a terrific spring with the Twins and will now have the opportunity to pitch in his first big league game after grinding through eight minor league seasons. The call to the big leagues for Harper is surely sweetened by the fact that he’s come as close to making his big league debut as possible in the past; the Mariners selected Harper’s contract back in 2017 but optioned him back to Triple-A before he ever appeared in a game. He was outrighted before ever being summoned back to the big leagues.

Angels Select Peter Bourjos

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The Angels announced that they have selected the contract of outfielder Peter Bourjos. He’ll take the club’s remaining open 40-man roster spot.

As he closes in on his 32nd birthday, Bourjos returns to the place he broke into the majors and found his most notable success. When he was shipped out of Los Angeles in the 2013-14 offseason, he had a track record of approximately league-average hitting with quality glovework and baserunning. Bourjos compiled 8.2 rWAR in just 1,136 plate appearances with the Halos.

Things have soured since. In the intervening seasons, Bourjos has mustered a meager .229/.286/.366 batting line in 1,152 total plate appearances. While his other skills seem largely to be intact, that’s just not enough bat to create many opportunities.

Bourjos came into camp battling for a reserve role or a spot on the depth chart in Triple-A. As it turns out, his strong showing and the Angels’ injury situation have conspired to open the door for significant playing time at the start of the year. Bourjos popped three long balls and slashed .288/.339/.558 in 56 plate appearances this spring; Justin Upton is headed to the injured list along with several other outfield options.

It’d make quite a bit of sense for the club to add a left-handed-hitting, complementary outfield piece. Free agent Denard Span is a match on paper but wouldn’t be ready to go at the start of the season. It’s likelier that the club will look into low-cost players who lose camp battles with other teams. Brian Goodwin stands out as a hypothetical possibility, with others sure to join him in the coming days.

Giants Announce Roster Decisions On Hanson, Murphy, Sandoval

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Giants skipper Bruce Bochy has announced several notable roster decisions to reporters, including Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (links to Twitter). Of particular note, out-of-options players Alen Hanson and Tom Murphy will not be carried on the active roster, meaning they’ll either need to be traded or exposed to waivers.

Recently acquired, right-handed-hitting outfielders Michael Reed and Connor Joe (who also has infield experience) are both slated to have MLB jobs, per Bochy. And the same holds for veteran third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who’s said to be in the club’s plans for the time being.

Hanson, 26, played a big role for the Giants last year. He was excellent in the first half of the season but faded down the stretch, ending the year with a .252/.274/.425 slash. While it’s rarely wise to read too much into spring stats, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Hanson racked up twenty strikeouts in his 54 plate appearances in camp.

As for Murphy, he was only just plucked off waivers from the division-rival Rockies. Evidently, the plan was to nab him in hopes of slipping him to Triple-A through the wire. Whether that works out remains to be seen.

It seemingly remains a fluid situation in San Francisco, with late-spring decisions from other teams potentially still intervening. As Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic notes on Twitter, the evening’s announcements appear to indicate that either Sandoval or out-of-options outfielder Mac Williamson will ultimately need to be bumped from the roster. If the latter is sent packing, that’d seem to leave Joe and Redd (with an assist from Yangervis Solarte) responsible for manning one corner spot while also filling in at times for left-handed-hitting outfielders Steven Duggar and Gerardo Parra.

Rangers Release Ben Revere

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The Rangers announced today that they have released veteran outfielder Ben Revere. He had been with the club on a minor-league contract but was not slated to make the MLB roster out of camp.

Revere, 30, topped three hundred plate appearances in the majors every year from 2011 to 2017. But the light-hitting center fielder failed even to appear at the game’s highest level in 2018, managing only a forty-game run at Triple-A in the Angels organization.

There was never a clear opening for Revere in Texas, though perhaps it was possible to imagine a way for him to crack the roster. He received only 22 plate appearances in camp, however, and never gained traction. Presumably, the speedy Revere — he has 211 career steals in the majors — will look for a better opportunity elsewhere.

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