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Reds Reportedly “Contemplating” Near-Term Promotion Of Nick Senzel

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The Reds are “contemplating” a call-up for top prospect Nick Senzel, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The much-hyped 23-year-old could make it onto the roster as soon as this Friday, per the report.

Senzel might already have forced his way onto the MLB roster, but he had to overcome an injury incurred shortly after being optioned down late in camp. The Cincinnati organization had decided not to carry him on its Opening Day roster owing to some combination of a desire to give Senzel more time to adapt to playing in the outfield and service-time considerations.

The second overall pick of the 2016 draft, Senzel has thrived at the plate ever since joining the profession ranks. He carries a smooth .900 career OPS through just over a thousand trips to the plate at all levels. Expectations are that he’ll be a quality all-around performer right from the jump in the majors.

While the Reds understandably wanted to give Senzel a chance to get comfortable on the grass, where he’s moving after appearing almost exclusively as an infielder, the club needs to do everything possible to keep pace in a brutal NL Central division. It remains to be seen how the roster will be sorted once Senzel is up, but odds are he’ll receive the lion’s share of time in center after appearing there exclusively thus far this season at Triple-A.

Having waited to this point, the Reds are not at risk of allowing Senzel to accrue a full year of MLB service this season. That means the earliest he could qualify for free agency would be after the 2025 season. Should Friday prove to be the day for Senzel’s arrival, he could reach up to 150 service days this year, which would put him on track for eventual Super Two qualification.

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Since we last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class, seven more potential free agents came off the board: Chris Sale, Paul Goldschmidt, Xander Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Matt Carpenter, Khris Davis, and Ryan Pressly.  This came after Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Aaron Hicks, and Nolan Arenado had already decided to eschew free agency.  Meanwhile, pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are still without teams, serving as a warning for those thinking of testing the market.

In theory, the open market should always generate the best offers, even if the potential loss of a draft pick enters the equation.  Still, for many players it isn’t worth enduring a potentially brutal free agency process in an attempt to squeeze out that last $20MM at the risk of a Keuchel/Kimbrel debacle, when you’re signing for generational money regardless.  That’s why this list keeps getting less and less impressive each time we do it.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power.  To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Gerrit Cole.  Cole jumps to the top of this list simply by virtue of the Red Sox locking down Sale and Bogaerts.  Cole, 28, has been homer-prone in his first six starts, but it’s really just one rough outing in Texas that has thrown off his ERA.  Sale is a comparable worth considering.  Sale’s new contract takes him through the age of 35, one year short of David Price, Max Scherzer, and Jon Lester and two years short of Zack Greinke.  Cole’s argument is that he, too, should require a commitment through age 35, which would necessitate a seven-year deal.  For all that went wrong for free agents in the 2018-19 offseason, Patrick Corbin still got a strong six-year contract with a shorter track record than Cole.  In the end, Cole needs a good old-fashioned bidding war to develop, and teams have become increasingly reluctant to enter into those.  Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote on March 22nd that the Astros were discussing extensions with both Cole and rotation-mate Justin Verlander, and shortly after that they inked Verlander to a two-year, $66MM extension.  I’d say that decreases the chances of the Astros extending Cole.

2.  Anthony Rendon.  Rendon, 28, got off to a blazing start this year for the Nationals before a Jose Urena fastball struck his elbow on April 20th and ended a 17-game hitting streak.  He’s played in one game since that HBP but seems to have avoided significant injury.  Jose Altuve’s five-year, $151MM extension with the Astros, signed about a year ago, lines up well with Rendon.  Nolan Arenado’s deal further cemented the idea that teams are mostly willing to pay through age 34 rather than 35.  The x-factor might be Paul Goldschmidt, a player perhaps inferior to Rendon who was extended through age 36 by the Cardinals.  So look for Rendon to try for a six-year deal, though he could end with five.  The last we heard on extension talks with the Nationals was from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman on April 18th, who tweeted that “there’s believed to be a decent-sized gap remaining” between the two sides.

3.  Marcell Ozuna.  Ozuna, 28, fell short of expectations last year after the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins.  It’s possible shoulder soreness was to blame, with Ozuna undergoing surgery to address the issue after the season.  The shoulder doesn’t seem to be affecting his hitting early on in 2019, as Ozuna has 10 home runs in his last 79 plate appearances.  With a season more like Ozuna’s 2017 campaign, he should have a good chance at a five-year deal.  It’s worth noting that the three potential free agents currently topping this list are all clients of the Boras Corporation.

4.  Madison Bumgarner.  Despite a 4.30 ERA across six starts, Bumgarner’s early results for the Giants have been promising.  After last year’s career-worst walk rate, he’s issuing free passes to a career-best 3.3% of batters in the small 37 2/3 inning sample.  A vintage 200 inning campaign from Bumgarner should set him up nicely for a strong four-year deal in free agency.  He’ll also be one of the best trade chips on the market in July, and a trade would remove the qualifying offer issue that has partially plagued Keuchel.

5.  Zack Wheeler.  Wheeler, 29 in May, has come on strong in his last three starts after a seven-walk outing on April 7th.  The hard-throwing righty is now four years removed from Tommy John surgery, though he did go two and a half years between MLB starts as he recovered.  The goal has to be a five-year deal through age 34, but he may have to settle for four.  It’s all about staying healthy for these next 25 starts.  The Mikolas/Nathan Eovaldi deals, at four years and $68MM, could be a marker for Wheeler.  Unlike Eovaldi, Wheeler may be dealing with a qualifying offer.

6.  Didi Gregorius.  Gregorius is currently recovering from October Tommy John surgery.  His recovery is going smoothly, though there’s no public timetable on his return.  In the meantime, it’s mostly been Gleyber Torres holding down the fort at shortstop for the Yankees after Troy Tulowitzki strained his calf on April 3rd.  With Bogaerts off the board, Gregorius will be the best available shortstop if the Yankees don’t lock him up prior to free agency.  A four-year deal seems plausible if he comes back strong, though Gregorius will likely receive a qualifying offer.

7.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez has been one of the game’s best hitters over the last two years.  He’s off to a strong start this year, though he’s missed a few games of late due to back spasms.  Martinez is, of course, limited in that he primarily serves as a designated hitter.  The players union continues to advocate for the National League to get the DH, so we’ll see whether the owners agree in the near future and vastly open up Martinez’s market.  Later this year, Martinez will be 32 when he’ll be faced with deciding whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM remaining on his contract.  The safe move is to just stick with his current deal, especially since the Red Sox could saddle Martinez with a qualifying offer if he opts out.

8.  Josh Donaldson.  After an injury-marred 2018 season, Donaldson signed a hefty one-year, $23MM deal with the Braves.  A 30 home run, 80 walk type season in the middle of the Braves’ lineup would likely result in some solid multiyear offers for the former MVP.  However, Donaldson will turn 34 in December, so the offers may top out at two years with a strong AAV.  Another complication is that Donaldson could receive a qualifying offer from the Braves.

9.  Yasmani Grandal.  Like Donaldson, Grandal inked a significant one-year deal in free agency this past winter.  However, Grandal turned down multiyear offers from the Mets, White Sox, Twins, and Angels, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic.  The catcher explained in January at his Brewers press conference, “I had a lot of good deals.  One of my responsibilities as a player is also to respect the guys going through this process before me like Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Yadier Molina, to mention a few of them.”  Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM before ultimately landing his one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee.  If Grandal’s strong start to the season continues, his gambit just might pay off, as even something like three years and $42MM would get him past $60MM for 2019-22.  This time around, he won’t be saddled with a qualifying offer.

10.  Yasiel Puig.  In the first month of his Reds career, Puig has lived up to his Wild Horse nickname by, as Deadspin described it, attempting to “fight all of Pittsburgh.”  He’s here on this list because of his abilities as a hitter, which have decidedly not manifested themselves through 96 plate appearances.  His strikeout and walk rates are career worsts in the early going, but he has five months to turn it around and earn a multiyear contract in free agency.

Honorable mentions: Nicholas Castellanos, Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Cole Hamels

 

East Notes: LeMahieu, Holt, Inciarte, Cano

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The Yankees announced today that an MRI showed inflammation in the right knee of infielder DJ LeMahieu. He suffered a contusion on Friday night and has been limited since. It’s a tough balance for the Yanks, who are already pressing numerous players into unexpectedly significant roles. While the preferred course might be to put LeMahieu on the shelf and bring in a replacement, the club is surely wary of keeping him out longer than needed and must also keep a close watch on 40-man roster pressures. It’s a tough spot — one that makes the club’s ongoing success all the more impressive (and frightening for the rest of the American League East).

Here’s more from the game’s eastern divisions:

  • Brock Holt’s path back to the majors has encountered another roadblock. The Red Sox utilityman is now dealing with a shoulder injury, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report. Details aren’t yet known — he’s due for a medical exam tomorrow — but it seems Holt came down with the ailment recently. He has been working back after suffering a scratched cornea. Holt, 30, turned in a strong .277/.362/.411 slash in 367 plate appearances last year. His absence is amplified by the fact that both Dustin Pedroia and Eduardo Nunez are also on the injured list at the moment.
  • Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte left tonight’s game with a hamstring injury. Initial indications are that he is in good shape, skipper Brian Snitker told reporters including David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link), but the true condition of the muscle will be more apparent tomorrow. It’s conceivable that a roster move will be needed. The club wouldn’t necessarily need to bring up an outfielder, though it’s already running out an eight-man bullpen. Adam Duvall surely wouldn’t mind an opportunity. He’s playing at Triple-A for the first time since 2015 and doesn’t seem to want to stay (.306/.388/.647 with seven home runs and 16:11 K/BB through 98 plate appearances).
  • It seems that Mets second baseman Robinson Cano has avoided a significant injury after being struck by a pitch on Sunday. X-rays on his hand were negative, so it seems the club needs only to wait for the swelling to subside before it’ll be able to slot him back in the lineup. Cano is off to a solid but hardly overwhelming start to his tenure with New York’s National League entrant. Through 108 plate appearances, he carries a .270/.324/.430 slash line with three home runs. UZR and DRS have soured on his glovework a bit in the early going, though it’s tough to put too much stock in a short-sample run of defensive metrics.

Minor MLB Transactions: 4/29/19

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Here’s the day’s lone minor MLB roster move of note:

  • The Angels have outrighted lefty Sam Freeman, per the team’s transactions page. It is not yet known whether the 31-year-old will accept or reject the assignment to Triple-A; he has the service time to make his own election. Freeman made just one appearance after being selected recently to the MLB roster. He continued to dish out a worrying number of walks, as he had in his initial action at Triple-A. Freeman has always battled with the free passes, though that issue hasn’t prevented him from throwing 228 2/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball at the game’s highest level.

Central Notes: Sano, Wood, Tigers

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Twins third baseman Miguel Sano is launching an official rehab assignment, per a club announcement. He’ll open at the High-A level, with planned stops at the next two rungs on the ladder before MLB activation, MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park was among those to report. Sano has been working back from an injury to his Achilles that healed much more slowly than anticipated. The hope now is that the issue is behind him, but the Twins want to get Sano plenty of reps before bringing him back to the big-league roster. Sano, who’ll turn 26 on May 11th, is looking to bounce back after a highly disappointing 2018 campaign. No doubt the Minnesota organization would like to see him put in some of the work he was prevented from undertaking this spring.

More from the game’s central divisions …

  • The Reds received some unwelcome news on starter Alex Wood, as manager David Bell told reporters including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) that the southpaw recently suffered a setback while trying to work through the back problems that have sidelined him to date. Wood has yet to appear with his new organization, which had hoped he’d be one of three new veteran starters to bolster the rotation. An examination has been scheduled for Wednesday, at which time more on Wood’s outlook may be known. The 28-year-old is earning $9.65MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility after defeating the Reds in an arb hearing.
  • Health issues are creating problems in the Tigers rotation, which means GM Al Avila is weighing the options for filling in. As Chris McCosky of the Detroit News writes, the top Detroit baseball decisionmaker doesn’t see much of interest in free agency; he says the front office will “have to keep our eye on the waiver wire and on guys in the minor leagues who have opt-out clauses.” With nothing doing there at the moment, the Tigers are looking internally. Ryan Carpenter and Kyle Funkhouser both are under consideration, with the team also pondering the possibility of utilizing Blaine Hardy in a swingman role once he’s activated from the IL.
  • It’s awfully tempting to wonder whether one of the Tigers’ blue-chip pitching prospects could instead get the call, particularly after ace-in-the-making Casey Mize spun a rare complete-game no-hitter this evening. Whether that’ll be a possibility at some point remains to be seen, but it’s worth bearing in mind that there are some notable roster considerations that counsel against a quick promotion even beyond service-time considerations. As Avila tells McCosky, the organization anticipates a need to add something like ten prospects to the 40-man roster in advance of this winter’s Rule 5 draft. The club is obviously keeping a close eye on the downstream effects of its decisions.

Giants Place Derek Holland On 10-Day IL

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The Giants have placed lefty Derek Holland on the 10-day injured list, the club announced and reporters including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweeted. He’s dealing with a bruise to his left index finger.

It’s certainly possible this’ll be a brief IL stint of limited consequence. There’s no indication at present as to how long Holland will be sidelined, but it doesn’t sound like a particularly worrisome injury. That said, the Giants’ pitching staff remains one of the most interesting in baseball from a hot-stove perspective, so it’s worth a quick look at the move.

The 32-year-old Holland has struggled to a 5.34 ERA in his first 32 frames, with home runs (seven already) and walks (16) largely to blame. But he’s also striking out 11.3 per nine on an 11.4% swinging-strike rate, with ramped-up usage of his slider helping to change his profile. Holland could yet be a mid-season trade candidate if he can refine his new approach.

For the time being, Ty Blach is coming up to take the open roster spot. But as Pavlovic notes on Twitter, the IL placement may end up opening the door for former 14th overall pick Tyler Beede. As he closes in on his 26th birthday, Beede could get his second shot at the majors after a rough debut last year.

The Giants are said to be pleased with what they’ve seen from Beede thus far in 2019. Indeed, he has run up 22 2/3 innings of 1.99 ERA pitching with 13.5 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9 this year at Triple-A. At some point, the Giants will want to get a full MLB look at the former Vanderbilt hurler.

Braves Place Chad Sobotka On IL, Recall Grant Dayton

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The Braves announced today that reliever Chad Sobotka is headed to the 10-day injured list with a left abdomen strain. He’ll be replaced by southpaw Grant Dayton.

Sobotka has scuffled out of the gates for the Atlanta club, turning in a dozen innings of 8.25 ERA ball to open the year. While he’s getting grounders (46.9%) and strikeouts (12.8 per nine), he’s also coughing up quite a few walks (6.8 per nine) and home runs (2.25 per nine on a 25.0% HR/FB rate).

It’s hard to diagnose the true root of the issues. Though Sobotka is still sitting at over 96 mph with his fastball and generating a 14.6% swinging-strike, opposing hitters are simply making better contact than they did in his debut stint last year. He’s getting first-pitch strikes 63.9% of the time, which is generally a good sign for walk rate, but is in the zone with just 35.8% of his pitches.

In any event, a brief respite may not be the worst outcome here, so long as the strain isn’t too serious. It’s not yet clear whether he’ll need a rehab stint and how long he’ll be sidelined. Of course, the Braves pen isn’t in the best position to weather any absences, even from a pitcher that hasn’t produced the desired results.

It’ll be interesting to see what the club gets from Dayton, a 2017-18 offseason waiver claimee who is now back from Tommy John surgery. He seems to be throwing the ball well at Triple-A, having compiled eight strikeouts without a walk (but with one home run against him) in his 5 1/3 frames. Dayton was a fascinating breakout reliever for the Dodgers in 2016 but did not sustain his initial showing in the ensuing season before going under the knife.

Brewers Select Jay Jackson, Designate Alex Wilson

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The Brewers have selected the contract of right-hander Jay Jackson from Triple-A San Antonio and opened a spot on the roster by designating right-hander Alex Wilson for assignment, per a club announcement. The Brewers also placed righty Aaron Wilkerson on the 10-day injured list due to a left foot contusion and recalled left-hander Donnie Hart from San Antonio in his place.

Jackson’s promotion marks the culmination of a lengthy journey back to the big leagues for the 31-year-old. The right-hander appeared in six games with the 2015 Padres, totaling 4 1/3 innings of bullpen work, but was cut loose that offseason in order to pursue an opportunity in Japan. The 2008 ninth-round pick could have stuck with the Padres that year in hopes of surviving the offseason and spending the next season as an up-and-down reliever, though there was no certainty or fiscal security associated with that route. Rather, Jackson took a chance on venturing overseas and not only found success, but became one of the most dominant relievers in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball over the next three seasons.

In three seasons with the Hiroshima Carp, Jackson pitched to a combined 2.13 ERA with 202 strikeouts against 70 walks in 182 innings as a member of the Carp. He explored the possibility of a return to the U.S. after his second season in Japan but, apparently not finding any offers to his liking, returned for a third season in NPB. Ultimately, the Brewers made Jackson a minor league offer to return to the organization — he’d pitched in their minor league system in 2014 — that the righty accepted.

It’s still early in the Triple-A season, but Jackson has torn through opposing lineups in the Pacific Coast League, pitching 8 2/3 innings of shutout relief with a 14-to-2 K/BB ratio and just four hits allowed. Given the inconsistencies in the Milwaukee ’pen beyond Josh Hader and Junior Guerra, Jackson could very well have a legitimate opportunity to entrench himself in Craig Counsell’s relief corps. Milwaukee has hopes that Jeremy Jeffress, recently activated from the injured list, can help to stabilize matters, but the team has already lost Corey Knebel to Tommy John surgery and designated both Wilson and Jake Petricka for assignment in the past 48 hours.

Wilson, 32, spent Spring Training as a non-roster invitee with the Indians after being non-tendered by the Tigers last December. He didn’t earn a spot in the Cleveland ’pen, however, and later signed on with the Brewers on a big league deal once health concerns in the Milwaukee ’pen began to mount.

Although he’s long been a steady presence in the Detroit bullpen, Wilson was tattooed for a dozen runs on 15 hits (three homers) and nine walks with 13 strikeouts in 11 1/3 frames with the Brewers. He started off with three strong outings in a row before being hammered for six runs his fourth time out, and the right-hander never managed to fully recover. Three of his past four outings have seen him yield a pair of earned runs.

The Brewers will have a week to trade Wilson, release him, or pass him through outright waivers (though he could reject an outright assignment and take free agency instead). His contract reportedly came with a fairly minimal $750K base salary, so even if there’s no 45-day advance consent clause in the deal, the financial loss is hardly prohibitive for the Milwaukee organization.

Ervin Santana Elects Free Agency

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April 29: Santana has elected free agency, per an announcement from the White Sox. Daryl Van Schouwen tweets that the decision relievers the ChiSox from any further financial obligations regarding Santana, which seems to suggest that the veteran righty agreed to a 45-day advance consent clause as part of his contract.

Players with more than five years of service time earn the right to retain their salary even after being released or rejecting an outright assignment in favor of free agency. The 45-day advance consent clause, however, gives teams the option of cutting loose a veteran with six-plus years at any point within the season’s first 45 days (barring an injury) without being on the hook for the remainder of his salary. (Trade Rumors’ Zach Links examined 45-day advance consent clauses in depth a few years ago.)

April 26: The White Sox announced this morning that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Ervin Santana for assignment. His spot on the active roster will go to Eloy Jimenez, who has been reinstated from the bereavement list.

Santana’s stay with the Sox proved to be brief, as he made only three starts before the team shifted course today. The 36-year-old righty pitched just 13 1/3 innings for the Pale Hose, allowing 14 runs on 19 hits and six walks with only five strikeouts.

Chicago inked Santana to a minor league contract with a rather hefty $4.3MM guarantee at the MLB level in hopes that he could bounce back from an injury-ruined 2018 season. Santana underwent surgery to repair a tendon in his pitching hand in February of 2018, and lingering effects from that procedure limited him to just 24 2/3 ineffective innings with the Twins. Following that injury shortened campaign, Minnesota declined a $14MM option on the righty.

Prior to that injury, however, Santana was not only durable for the Twins but quietly one of the league’s more effective starters. Santana turned in 392 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball with 7.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 for the Twins from 2016-17. The 2017 campaign saw Santana toss five complete games — a rare feat in this era of baseball — including three shutouts. From 2010-17, Santana avoided any absences due to injury and averaged 30 starts and 192 innings per season (despite an 80-game PED suspension at the onset of the 2015 season).

It’s now uncertain whether Santana can reestablish himself as a viable rotation piece at the big league level, although given his track record and the sheer number of teams that could use rotation reinforcements, one would imagine that he’ll get the opportunity to do so. He’ll first have to clear release waivers — it’s unlikely that the Sox find a trade partner for the righty — but once he does, he can sign with any club on either a minor league contract or an MLB deal worth the prorated league minimum.

As for the Sox, they’ll look to internal options to help right the ship in what has been an awful rotation to begin the year. While Carlos Rodon has performed well through the season’s first month, each of Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Ivan Nova and Santana have pitched poorly. Dylan Covey, Jordan Stephens and top prospect Dylan Cease are all looming in Triple-A as potential options, or the team could simply plug Manny Banuelos into the fifth spot in the rotation moving forward. Some type of spot starter will likely need to be recalled in the coming days, however, as Giolito is on the shelf with a hamstring injury at the moment.

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