Latest On Push For International Draft
Major League Baseball is pressing a plan to implement an international draft in the near future, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports. With ownership behind the initiative, says Badler, it’s possible that the league could attempt to institute such a system as soon as the 2020 international signing season.
That general attempt has long been anticipated. What’s most notable about the report, which arises in the wake of a league-run session with teams’ international staff members, are some of the potential particulars. The changes, if implemented, would represent a significant further tightening of an already closely controlled labor-intake system.
According to Badler, the initial structure under consideration features “hard slot value[s]” that would leave no room for negotiation for incoming players. In other words, in addition to losing their ability to select which organization would best nurture and care for a 16-year-old while providing the best long-term opportunity, players and their families would be stripped of the chance to negotiate a larger bonus than the system dictates.
The proposal also includes a simple rotation system for assigning top draft choices to teams. That’d make for quite a different approach from the domestic amateur draft, in which the order is tethered directly to MLB team performance. A rotating approach would largely preserve the status quo, in which spending pools aren’t connected to MLB-level outcomes; it’s unclear whether there would continue to be any connection to competitive balance (recipients currently get more pool money) or free-agent outcomes (there’s a pool hit for non-revenue sharing teams that sign a player who declined a qualifying offer).
MLB has already succeeded in shaving something like a quarter of its international expenditures by imposing hard caps on amateur spending. Though many players signing under the regime are teenagers, the rules also extend to cover those who haven’t yet turned 25 and who possess less than six seasons playing in a foreign professional league. (That’s why the immensely talented Shohei Ohtani signed for peanuts.)
It’s impossible not to connect the question of the international draft to the still-building labor battle between MLB and the MLB Players Association. First and foremost, the international intake system is subject to bargaining — just as it was when the union acceded to the hard-cap system. More broadly, there’s an obvious connection between amateur signing bonuses and early-MLB extensions — the recent run of which has had a huge (albeit still not fully known) impact on the ability of MLB players as a whole to command future free-agent earnings.
It’ll certainly be interesting to see how the MLBPA responds to this initiative. Chief Tony Clark hinted recently at a new stance on the amateur side, though it’s still not clear whether the union will be able to enunciate an encompassing vision to compete with the league’s — or, at least, use this topic to pry other, worthwhile concessions. Mid-CBA negotiations are now in process; the international question will no doubt feature significantly.
Badler notes that members of the international intake apparatus — trainers on the player side and scouts on the team side — are increasingly “split” in their views on the draft after a history of general opposition. That won’t dictate the players’ position by any stretch, but it’s a notable shift from a set of important stakeholders.
There are numerous considerations to be accounted for here beyond bonuses. The international signing system has long featured nefarious, sometimes dangerous, situations involving young and often vulnerable players. While there are indications that some of the most concerning elements have improved in recent years, it’s still plenty concerning that teams are lining up advance deals with extremely youthful players who are not yet eligible to sign. There’s still ample potential for harm. And while teams have increasingly seen the value in investing in education and health initiatives for their amateur players, there’s no common standard and no firm support system for those that aren’t chosen to continue advancing as professional ballplayers. It may be hoped that, if the league is successfully able to tighten control through a draft, it also focuses serious energy and resources to creating a truly just overall program for players that are eligible for selection.
MLBTR Poll: What Should The Giants Do At The Deadline?
So … with the Giants now within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot after winning twelve of their past fourteen games, should they halt a long-anticipated summer sell-off? There’s obvious appeal to making a push with a veteran-laden team, but also no small amount of risk in foregoing an opportune and much-needed chip-cashing opportunity on the trade market.
It’s awfully hard to pull the rug out from under a team that was built to win. The ballclub was constructed for contention by the prior front office regime, but seemed badly in need of a reset after two-straight miserable campaigns. Maybe it has taken longer than hoped, and hasn’t quite happened in the manner anticipated, but perhaps we’re finally seeing the fruit of the labors of deposed GM Bobby Evans.
There are some signs of recently improved play from the roster. Over the past thirty days, Giants hitters have paced the majors with 162 runs scored while producing a collective 111 wRC+ (11th in baseball). In that same span, the pitching staff has been a top-ten unit by measure of fWAR. The Giants’ very good and judiciously deployed bullpen has led all of baseball in net win-percentage added this season, which helps explain how the team has strongly outperformed win expectations based upon Pythagorean (+3) or BaseRuns (+6) evaluation. Perhaps there’s some magic yet in a dugout commanded for one final time by Bruce Bochy.
On the other hand, it’s easy to get carried away with recency bias. There really isn’t much evidence of underlying changes in the talent level on the roster that would suggest this is a much better ballclub than its 47-49 record would suggest. There are still five teams ahead of the Giants in the Wild Card picture, many of which also have legitimate chances at winning their divisions and will be improving at the deadline. The Giants have no hope of catching the Dodgers in the NL West and don’t appear situated to make notable additions, even if they do hold existing veterans. Fangraphs’ playoff odds calculator still places the Giants as the second-to-least likely team in the National League to appear in the playoffs.
Plus, the San Francisco farm system — despite making some improvements of late — could clearly stand to be supplemented. We’ve been talking for months about the increasingly appealing set of trade pieces the Giants can bring to the market this summer. Our recent ranking of the top sixty deadline assets is littered with San Francisco roster members. In particular, the Giants possess many of the top pure rental players and all but control the bullpen market. They could also have some chances at moving big contracts to help free the near-future books.
All things considered, it’s a tough test for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who’ll either have to sell the selling to the fanbase or risk hampering the rebuilding effort. What do you think he ought to do? (Poll link for app users.)
How Should The Giants Handle The Trade Deadline?
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Sell 75% (7,688)
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Hold 16% (1,613)
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Buy 10% (998)
Total votes: 10,299
Jeff Bridich: Rockies Playing “Really Bad Baseball”
This has been an up-and-down season for the Rockies, who began 3-12, climbed all the way to 40-34 and have since nosedived to 46-50. The multiple rotten stretches the Rockies have stumbled through this year may prevent them from earning a third straight playoff berth, but for now, they’re a still-manageable 3 1/2 games out of wild-card position in the jam-packed National League. However, that doesn’t seem to be of much solace to general manager Jeff Bridich, who admitted to Thomas Harding of MLB.com that the Rockies are playing “really bad baseball.” Bridich added that the Rockies’ horrid performance over the past several weeks could complicate matters leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
“It all needs addressing,” Bridich said of his roster, though he doesn’t see “any quick fixes” and suggested he’s not gearing up to purchase outside help right now. While Harding notes Bridich bought at the previous two deadlines, which helped the team get to the postseason in each case, the GM was frank in saying this year “feels different” compared to those seasons.
“Just watch us play,” Bridich said. “We get a good outing from our starter and we’ll find a way to lose that game through offense or the bullpen or defense. We’ll get a lot of offense one game and our bullpen will come blow it or defense will blow it, or combine. There’s a different way each night, it seems. When that’s your reality in all parts of your team, it’s a tough go to fix all that in one small time period of the year.”
Problems are indeed prevalent for the Rockies. Despite having to pitch half its season at Coors Field, Colorado’s staff was legitimately effective last year. Among their starters, Kyle Freeland finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting, German Marquez was a strikeout machine, and Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray and Antonio Senzatela offered fine complementary performances. This year, with the exception of Gray, everyone from that group has taken noticeable steps back. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ bullpen has felt the absence of Adam Ottavino, who signed with the Yankees in the offseason, and fellow veterans Wade Davis and Seunghwan Oh (whose season is now over because of an elbow injury) have been dreadful. The bullpen’s lone bright spot over a large sample of work has been Scott Oberg, who has posted a 1.35 ERA/3.06 FIP in 46 2/3 frames.
As Bridich suggested, the Rockies’ position player group has also fallen flat. Despite the presences of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl, the unit’s the fifth worst in the league by fWAR (5.2). Colorado has scored the majors’ fourth-most runs (527), but according to park-adjusted metric wRC+ (85), only five offenses have been worse. In the field, the club has been run-of-the-mill at best in errors (15th), Defensive Runs Saved (20th) and Ultimate Zone Rating (22nd).
Thanks to the Rockies’ team-wide issues, they may be more inclined to sell or stand pat than buy in the next two weeks. The trouble is, if the team wants to ship players out, it doesn’t seem to have a lot of realistic trade chips. Oh, catcher Chris Iannetta and infielder Mark Reynolds are the Rockies’ only impending free agents, but there’s little to no trade value in any of those cases. While the Rockies would likely jump at the chance to get any of the big contracts of Davis, Ian Desmond, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw off their books, that’s not happening. Daniel Murphy has been hot of late, though he’s a soon-to-be 35-year-old with almost $18MM in guaranteed money left on his contract through 2020.
On the other hand, Story – who has two years of arbitration eligibility left after this one – would bring back a haul in a trade. But it’s almost impossible to imagine the Rockies dealing the 26-year-old this summer, especially considering they’d like to extend him. Gray and Oberg, who also come with arbitration control through 2021, would be easier to give up than Story. However, it would take a “truly special” return for the team to trade either of those right-handers, according to Harding.
AL Notes: Astros, Tribe, Kluber, Mondesi, M. Chapman, Twins
The Astros had interest in trading for catcher Martin Maldonado before the Cubs acquired him from the Royals on Monday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Maldonado was a pre-deadline pickup for Houston last July, when it acquired him from the division-rival Angels, but the Astros’ attempt to re-sign him during the offeason failed. The Astros then brought in free agent Robinson Chirinos, who has been their No. 1 backstop all year but has slumped of late. Chirinos is a better hitter than Maldonado, but the latter is far and away the superior defender. Astros backup catcher Max Stassi is another defense-first option, though he’s having a much worse season at the plate than Maldonado. For Houston, re-acquiring Maldonado could have brought about the end of the out-of-options Stassi’s time on its 40-man roster.
More on a few other American League clubs…
- Indians ace Corey Kluber‘s recovery from the fractured right forearm he suffered May 1 took a significant step Wednesday, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. Kluber threw an all-fastball, 20-pitch bullpen session – his first since incurring the injury – without any issues. “Everybody came out smiling,” manager Terry Francona said. Kluber will throw a bullpen again Sunday, though there’s still no timetable for his return to the majors. Despite having to deal with long-term absences of Kluber and fellow rotation stalwarts Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger this season, the Indians are 54-40 and tied for the AL’s second wild-card spot.
- Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi went to the injured list with a left shoulder subluxation Wednesday. Fortunately, the injury isn’t as severe as Mondesi initially feared, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star tweets. With that said, it remains unknown how much time the 23-year-old cornerstone will miss. A former stud prospect, Mondesi has developed into an untouchable major leaguer for the Royals, having combined passable offense with plus defense and excellent base running since a breakout 2018.
- Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman left their win over the Mariners on Wednesday with left ankle soreness, Oakland announced. Chapman is day-to-day, Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. Winners of eight of 10 and tied with Cleveland for the AL’s second wild-card position, the A’s are rolling thanks in part to Chapman, who’s enjoying another superstar-caliber campaign. The 26-year-old has torched the opposition for a .279/.363/.552 batting line with 22 home runs and 4.2 fWAR over 405 plate appearances in 2019.
- The Twins designated reliever Mike Morin for assignment Tuesday, which came as somewhat of a surprise considering the 3.18 ERA and .79 BB/9 the right-hander has posted in 22 2/3 innings this season. Manager Rocco Baldelli admitted it was a “very difficult” decision to jettison Morin, who did “his job very well” (via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). With 37 players on their 40-man roster after Morin’s DFA, the Twins “will almost certainly” select a reliever from the minors (recent pickups Cody Allen and Carlos Torres are among the candidates) or acquire one via trade to replace him.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/17/19
The latest minor moves from around baseball…
- Left-hander Robbie Ross recently joined the Sugar Land Skeeters of the independent Atlantic League. The 30-year-old has already thrown 7 1/3 innings with the club, striking out 13 but allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits and six walks. Ross spent last season in the minors with the White Sox after an injury-limited 2017 in Boston. Before that, Ross was fairly successful in the majors with the Rangers and Red Sox from 2012-16 – a 321 2/3-inning span in which he logged a 3.83 ERA/3.78 FIP with 7.41 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 and a 52.3 percent groundball rate.
- The Rockies made a pair of 40-man roster transactions Wednesday, moving infielder Brendan Rodgers to the 60-day injured list after he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery and reinstating lefty Harrison Musgrave from the 60-day IL. The club optioned Musgrave, who hasn’t pitched since May 3 because of a flexor strain, to Triple-A Albuquerque after activating him. The 27-year-old Musgrave allowed four earned runs on nine hits and seven walks (with 12 strikeouts) in 10 innings before his IL placement. As a rookie last season, Musgrave threw 44 2/3 frames to rank seventh among Rockies relievers in that category, but he only mustered a 4.63 ERA/5.31 FIP with 6.45 K/9 against 4.43 BB/9.
Reds Acquire Justin Grimm
The Reds have acquired right-handed reliever Justin Grimm from the Dodgers, according to Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeagues.com. The Dodgers received cash considerations in return, per Andersen Pickard of SB Nation.
Grimm never pitched in the majors for the Dodgers, who signed him to a minor league contract in late March. To this point, the 30-year-old has spent the season with Triple-A Oklahoma City and pitched to a bloated 5.66 ERA despite 12.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 over 41 1/3 innings.
At his best, Grimm was a solid piece of the Cubs’ bullpen from 2013-16, during which he posted a 3.29 ERA/3.17 FIP with 10.48 K/9, 3.94 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent groundball rate in 180 1/3 innings. That came after Grimm struggled in 2012 with the Rangers, though, and he fell off in 2017 with the Cubs before enduring a rough 2018 divided between the Royals and Mariners. Adding up all of Grimm’s major league work, he has notched a 4.98 ERA/4.07 FIP with 9.13 K/9, 3.89 BB/9 and a grounder percentage of 43.8 in 356 frames.
Diamondbacks Reportedly Shopping Adam Jones
Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen has said he’s unsure whether to buy, sell or do both at the upcoming trade deadline, but the team is “shopping” at least a few players, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote earlier this week. The list includes outfielder Adam Jones and the previously rumored duo of outfielder David Peralta and starter Robbie Ray, per Nightengale.
Trading veterans wouldn’t necessarily be a white-flag move on the part of Arizona, which could still find ways to remain competitive. Just last offseason, the Diamondbacks traded the longtime face of their franchise, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, in a package that netted them multiple major league-ready pieces in right-hander Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly. Both players have helped the Diamondbacks’ cause during a 48-47 start that has put them a mere game behind the National League’s last playoff spot, though Weaver has been out since late May with a forearm strain.
Unlike Goldschmidt, it’s safe to say Jones wouldn’t return much in a deal. The longtime Oriole got off to a fast start with the D-backs this season after joining the club for a guaranteed $3MM in early March, but Jones’ offensive production has cratered since the beginning of June. Overall, the 33-year-old has hit .261/.310/.433 with 13 home runs and a personal-worst 90 wRC+ across 353 plate appearances. To Jones’ credit, after a few dismal years in the outfield at the end of his Orioles tenure, he has essentially been a neutral defender in right this season (zero Defensive Runs Saved, minus-0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating).
Even considering Jones’ passable work in the grass and his well-regarded leadership, the five-time All-Star’s production over the past couple years indicates he wouldn’t move the needle much for a playoff hopeful down the stretch. It seems doubtful anyone would acquire Jones and expect him to offer a ton of on-field value, but regardless, he wouldn’t be able to stop a trade from occurring. Thanks to the 10-and-5 rights Jones earned with the Orioles, he blocked a trade last year and finished the season in Baltimore.
Outrighted: Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker
We’ll use this post to cover the day’s minor moves, both involving a pair of former Giants outfielders …
- The Mariners announced today that they’ve outrighted Mac Williamson after he cleared waivers. Williamson was designated for assignment following a dreadful run in Seattle — which, in turn, came on the heels of an even worse stint in San Francisco. Williamson carries a .156/.250/.258 slash line on the year and just hasn’t made use of his MLB opportunities over the past five seasons, sporadic though they have been. He is a .266/.344/.488 hitter through over a thousand plate appearances at the Triple-A level, however.
- Meanwhile, the Angels have announced the same exact move for Jarrett Parker. At times, it seemed that Parker might join Williamson as a part of the regular Giants outfield mix, but he was released after the 2017 season. Parker has shown some renewed life this year at Triple-A with the Halos, where he has slashed a hefty .296/.424/.604 and launched 19 long balls. The 30-year-old didn’t get much of a shot at the MLB level, but it bears note that he went down on strikes eight times in just 15 plate appearances.
Twins Sign Alejandro De Aza
The Twins have added outfielder Alejandro De Aza to their top affiliate, per an announcement from Triple-A Rochester communications director Nate Rowan (via Twitter). De Aza agreed to terms on a minors deal with the Minnesota organization, which in turn purchased his contract from the indy ball New Britain Bees.
Now 35 years of age, De Aza has not seen MLB action since the 2017 campaign — his tenth with at least some time in the majors. All told, the left-handed-hitting outfielder is a .260/.325/.396 hitter through 2,878 trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.
De Aza has hit rather well at his various stops over the past two seasons. He posted a .420 OBP in 32 games last year at Triple-A with the Nats and then turned in a .868 OPS in Venezuelan Winter League action. This year, he has dominated the Atlantic League to the tune of a .347/.415/.517 batting line with six home runs in 299 trips to the plate.
Mitch Haniger Set To Resume Baseball Activities
The Mariners have re-started the baseball activities of injured outfielder Mitch Haniger, manager Scott Servais told reporters including MLB.com’s Greg Johns (Twitter link). Doctors gave him the go-ahead to start some light catch and hitting.
Haniger halted an earlier attempt at ramping up when he experienced pain. His is a particularly unpleasant injury, so it’s probably not altogether surprising that the discomfort has continued.
Servais certain did not indicate that Haniger is now on a fast track back. “He still has some issues and is feeling some pain on certain days,” says Servais, “so we have to be careful how fast we go with him.”
It’s obviously disappointing to see the 28-year-old sidelined in this manner, particularly with so little else for the Mariners to cheer for at the moment. But with the M’s well out of contention, Haniger is clearly the one suffering the most. Beyond the physical and mental toll, his ongoing absence has sapped his earning power heading into his first year of arbitration eligibility. He’ll not only command less as an arb-1 player, but will establish a much lower starting point to build off of in the two ensuing years.
It seems there’s still at least some hope that Haniger can make it back to the majors this season. He will surely need to build himself up a bit physically and get comfortable again at game speed. Still, as a position player, Haniger shouldn’t require an especially extensive rehab stint — if and when he’s able to get fully past the pain.