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Will The Red Sox & Indians Make The Playoffs?

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The Red Sox and Indians entered the 2019 season as popular picks to earn playoff berths. Both teams have been powerhouses in recent years, including in 2018, when the Red Sox went 108-54 en route to a World Series title and the Indians took home their third consecutive AL Central crown. Two-plus months into the season, though, Boston and Cleveland have had to sail through rougher waters than expected. Both teams are just a tad over .500 (the Red Sox are 34-32, the Indians 33-32) and currently sitting outside the AL playoff picture.

Just about everything that could have gone right did for the Red Sox a year ago. Their position players paced the entire league in runs and led the AL in fWAR, and their pitchers were toward the top of the game in ERA and fWAR. None of that’s true this season, however. While Boston continues to enjoy a formidable offense, it’s not the juggernaut it was a season ago. Last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Betts, as well as J.D. Martinez,  Andrew Benintendi, World Series MVP Steve Pearce and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all seen their numbers dip. Much-improved production from Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez hasn’t been enough to offset the fallen output of that important group.

On the pitching side, ace Chris Sale has come back with a vengeance from a dreadful start, while David Price has also been outstanding. At the same time, though, late-2018 hero Nathan Eovaldi has barely pitched because of an elbow injury (and has struggled when he has taken the mound). Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez’s run prevention has tailed off, though his peripherals are encouraging, Rick Porcello hasn’t been close to his best self and enemy offenses have roughed up Hector Velazquez. Those starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been somewhat shaky in adjusting to life without the departed Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.

The Indians’ relief unit has taken enormous steps forward since 2018, on the other hand. It’s the rest of their roster that has gone backward. Top starters Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger have either battled serious injuries/illnesses or drastically underachieved. Francisco Lindor is having another great year, but his pal Jose Ramirez has gone from an MVP-level player to someone who can barely lift his OPS over .600. Michael Brantley’s now in Houston, replaced by players who have been incapable of matching his 2018 production. Jason Kipnis has been horrific, and the Indians’ offseason decision to trade Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauers simply hasn’t worked out to this point.

The Indians’ mediocre play has left them a whopping 10 1/2 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. As a result, the Tribe may have to consider making some difficult decisions this summer as the July 31 trade deadline draws nearer. For now, though, the Indians are very much in the wild-card hunt, behind the surprising Rangers by a game and a half. Boston’s even closer to Texas, which it trails by one and began a four-game series against Monday, but might have trouble overcoming the seven-game advantage the Rays and Yankees have built in the AL East. By the time the regular season wraps up, do you expect the Indians and Red Sox to be part of the league’s playoff field?

(Poll link for app users)

Will the Red Sox and Indians make the playoffs?
Just the Red Sox 49.68% (4,059 votes)
Neither team will get in 32.36% (2,644 votes)
Just the Indians 9.96% (814 votes)
Both teams will 8.00% (654 votes)
Total Votes: 8,171

Health Notes: Cingrani, Dominguez, Inciarte, Judge, Betances, German

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Let’s take a look at the latest injury news from around the game …

  • Dodgers lefty Tony Cingrani has undergone surgery on his left shoulder labrum, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports on Twitter. The recovery will cost him the remainder of the season. This news doesn’t come as a surprise, but it does represent confirmation that Cingrani will hit the open market without throwing another pitch in Los Angeles.
  • Phillies reliever Seranthony Dominguez is “hoping for a miracle” when it comes to his own potential surgery, as he tells reporters including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). He’ll receive a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, but all indications are that Tommy John surgery will ultimately be performed.
  • The Braves haven’t yet seen much progress for outfielder Ender Inciarte, skipper Brian Snitker told David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and other reporters. (Twitter link.) The veteran center fielder has yet to engage in any significant baseball activities, Snitker indicates, as the club has exercised ample care with his lumbar strain. “Still no timetable,” says Snitker. “… It’s kind of two steps forward and one back, it seems, in the whole process. It’s a back; you’ve got to be careful.”
  • There’s quite a bit of talent still bouncing around the injured list for the Yankees, with outfielder Aaron Judge the most notable of several stars. He’s making some measurable progress, having now advanced to taking cuts against high-velo pitching machines, manager Aaron Boone told reporters including Coley Harvey of ESPN (via Twitter). It’s even possible that Judge will be ready for some live action this weekend. There’s still no real timeline, but it certainly seems the slugger’s left oblique is feeling better.
  • A pair of Yankees righties have health events of some note tomorrow, Boone also announced. (MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch covered the news; Twitter links.) Reliever Dellin Betances (shoulder) is “still a little bit sore” after a recent setback, so he’s headed in for another MRI. Meanwhile, the club will see if a cortisone shot will help Domingo German deal with a hip flexor strain. He’s already on the IL but is hoping for a brief stay.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/10/19

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We’ll kick the morning off with some of the game’s minor moves throughout the league…

  • Righty David Carpenter was outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers, the Rangers announced. His return to the majors proved spirited but brief, as the 33-year-old was hit hard in his lone appearance. He had produced strong results at Triple-A, however, working to a 1.76 ERA with a 17:4 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings. Perhaps Carpenter will find his way back up to the bigs at some point.
  • The Cubs granted right-hander Matt Carasiti his release from their Triple-A club over the weekend, per Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register (Twitter links). He quickly latched on with the Mariners on a new minor league pact and has already appeared in his first game with Seattle’s top affiliate in Tacoma, where he allowed an earned run in 1 2/3 innings of work. In 27 innings of work with Chicago’s Iowa affiliate this season, Carasiti notched a 2.67 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate. The 27-year-old righty has a 2.85 ERA with 98 strikeouts against 36 walks in parts of three Triple-A campaigns (85 1/3 innings). He’s also had some success overseas, with a 3.98 ERA in 103 2/3 innings in his lone season pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, and he made a brief big league appearance with the Rockies in 2016. Carasiti allowed 16 runs in 15 2/3 innings with the Rox, though he’s pitched fairly well at every turn since that rough debut.
  • The White Sox released minor league corner infielder D.J. Peterson, according to the Triple-A International League’s transactions page. A former first-round pick (Mariners, 2013) and Top 100 prospect, Peterson has yet to make his Major League debut. After a productive year with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in 2018, he’s struggled to a dismal .189/.268/.370 slash through 143 plate appearances so far in 2019. The right-handed-hitting Peterson has ample experience at both infield corners but spent more time at third base than at first in his brief time with the White Sox. He’s a career .254/.310/.424 hitter in 1320 plate appearances across parts of five Triple-A seasons.

Trade Candidate: Will Smith

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Considering Will Smith is the subject of this piece, let’s dispense with the obligatory “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” reference right away: Smith is treating opposing hitters about as well as Uncle Phil treated Jazz. Between that and the fact that the Giants are way out of contention, Smith stands out as one of the majors’ most obvious trade chips leading up to the July 31 deadline. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is almost sure to part with Smith, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who’s slated to reach free agency after the season.

Smith, a left-handed reliever, has offered nothing but quality production since he shifted to the Royals’ bullpen in 2013. From then through last season, Smith posted a 3.00 ERA/2.81 FIP with 11.94 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 across 251 2/3 innings divided among Kansas City, Milwaukee and San Francisco. And the 2019 version is arguably the best one yet. In addition to recording a 2.19 ERA/1.97 FIP with 12.77 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, a 46.4 percent groundball rate and a lofty 21.4 percent infield fly rate over 24 2/3 frames, Smith has converted all 14 of his save opportunities.

As you’d expect from Smith’s sterling production, he has been death on batters of either handedness. Lefties have slashed .182/.217/.182 against him, while righties have put up an almost-as-weak .145/.197/.290 line. Hitters have only managed a .234 batting average on balls in play against Smith, which could prove to be unsustainable, but it doesn’t look as if they’re primed to start teeing off on him. Smith’s .220 weighted on-base average ranks fifth among all pitchers, and indicates the .205 real wOBA he has offered is mostly legitimate. Not only is Smith’s xwOBA in the league’s 99th percentile, but his strikeout rate (98th percentile), expected slugging percentage (98th percentile) and expected batting average (93rd percentile) all sit near the very top of the sport.

It’s fair to say the Giants have an ppealing trade piece on their hands in Smith, especially given his reasonable salary ($4.23MM). Smith was already a key deadline piece earlier in his career when the Giants acquired him from the Brewers for two prospects in 2016. Those prospects, Andrew Susac and Phil Bickford, didn’t pan out for the Brewers, but the return was nonetheless a haul at the time. Both Susac and Bickford ranked among the game’s top 65 prospects.

Smith’s a better pitcher now than he was then, but it’s unlikely he’ll bring a similar bounty in this summer’s inevitable trade. He’s only a rental, after all. Still, as at least the most valuable lefty reliever on the block (unless the Indians decide to dangle Brad Hand or the Pirates do the same with Felipe Vazquez), moving him should help the Giants strengthen their fallow farm system. With that said, it’s worth revisiting what the top impending free-agent relievers who changed hands in advance of last July’s deadline brought back in deals. We’re talking about Joakim Soria, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and Zach Britton. Aside from Britton, who hadn’t pitched much last year at the time of his trade because of injuries, each member of that group fared somewhat similarly to how Smith has this season.

Soria garnered two prospects, lefty Kodi Medeiros and righty Wilber Perez, when the White Sox traded him and $1MM in salary relief to the Brewers. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs didn’t sound too bullish on the White Sox’s return at the time, pointing to Medeiros’ difficulty throwing strikes and retiring righties and calling Perez “a fringe prospect.”

The Mets’ decision to send Familia (and his remaining $3MM in salary) to the A’s netted New York third baseman Will Toffey, righty Bobby Wahl and $1MM in international slot money. Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) was among the many who panned the Mets’ half of the trade.

Herrera brought back three players – outfielder  Blake Perkins, third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, and righty Yohanse Morel – when the Royals traded him and his $4.44MM in remaining salary to the Nationals. No one from that trio rated among the Nationals’ 10 best prospects then.

Likewise, Britton pulled in three players when his deal was consummated. The Yankees acquired Britton and his $4.44MM in money from the Orioles for righties Dillon Tate and Cody Carroll and lefty Josh Rogers. Tate was one of the Yankees’ highest-rated prospects at that point (No. 6 in their system, per Baseball America), while Carroll checked in at No. 15.

For the most part, none of the above relievers brought back inspiring packages for their final few months of team control in 2018. That may not bode well for the Giants this summer, though it’s certainly worth noting Smith has been better this year than any of them were last season. And with just over $2.5MM left in salary now and $1.39MM on July 31, he’ll come at a price any team could afford. Thanks to Smith’s performance, ability to close or set up, and affordability – not to mention contenders’ annual desire to upgrade their bullpens – playoff hopefuls will be beating down the Giants’ door in hopes of landing him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Matt Harvey Suffers Setback

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Angels righty Matt Harvey has suffered a setback that will delay his return to the majors, skipper Brad Ausmus told reporters including Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). Harvey has been on the injured list for just over two weeks.

It had been hoped that Harvey would get a breather, let the back issue heal up, and return to the majors after a limited rehab assignment. But his first (and thus far only) rehab stint did not go as planned.

Harvey took the mound for Triple-A Salt Lake City on Saturday, lasting only 2 2/3 innings before he was pulled. Before departing, he was tagged for eight earned runs on eight hits and two walks.

That’s obviously not the kind of showing he and the team were hoping for. Today’s news adds injury to insult.

When Harvey hit the IL, he was toting a 7.50 ERA in ten starts. Indeed, it seemed possible that the brutal results were as much a cause for the placement as the injury. (Harvey said he hadn’t experienced any symptoms since the IL placement.)

It isn’t clear just yet what the next steps are for Harvey. Ausmus acknowledged some concern in the veteran hurler. The Halos are now without both Harvey and fellow free agent signee Trevor Cahill, who’s dealing with a similarly nebulous blend of injury (elbow soreness) and performance issues.

The Oakland Ace?

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The Athletics haven’t seen one of their starters post a sub-3.00 ERA in a season since left-hander Rich Hill accomplished the feat in 2016, albeit during a truncated run in their uniform. Hill fired 76 innings of 2.25 ERA/2.54 FIP ball that year before the out-of-contention A’s sent him and outfielder Josh Reddick to the Dodgers for a three-player package. Now, three years later, one part of the Athletics’ return is on track for the top season an A’s starter has put up since Hill’s exit.

When he joined the A’s in the Hill trade, right-hander Frankie Montas ranked as Baseball America’s 82nd-best prospect. Despite Montas’ high upside, it was already the third deal involving him since he signed with the Red Sox in 2010 as a free agent from the Dominican Republic. The Red Sox traded Montas to the White Sox in 2013 in a large, three-team swap which delivered righty Jake Peavy to Boston. Two years after that, the ChiSox flipped Montas to the Dodgers in yet another three-club trade – this time to land third baseman Todd Frazier.

While Montas has been somewhat nomadic as a professional, it appears the 26-year-old has found a home in Oakland. Montas didn’t pitch in his first year with the organization because of a rib injury, and he then registered inconsistent results between the majors and minors in 2017. However, in logging a 3.88 ERA/3.90 FIP in 65 major league innings last season, Montas pitched his way into the A’s 2019 rotation. They’re now the beneficiaries of an ace-like version of Montas, who has amassed 76 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball to emerge as one of the majors’ breakout starters.

Montas’ quality run prevention last year came with fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings, but that figure has rocketed to 9.36 this season. Meanwhile, Montas is walking fewer hitters (2.37 per nine, down from 2.91), generating far more ground balls (51.4 percent now versus 43.7 in 2018) and inducing significantly more infield flies (11.7 percent, up from 4.5). Unsurprisingly given those numbers, home runs haven’t haunted Montas, who has yielded HRs on 10 percent of fly balls. So the A’s have a starter who racks up strikeouts, seldom walks anyone, keeps the ball on the ground and stops it from leaving in the ballpark. That sounds a lot like the 2016 version of Hill, which is a high compliment.

The question is: How is Montas doing this? Well, it helps when you’re one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. His high-spin four-seam fastball clocks in at upward of 97 mph, which ranks fifth in the game and just ahead of stars Gerrit Cole, Walker Buehler and Jacob deGrom. Hitters have mustered an unimposing .279 weighted on-base average versus Montas’ four-seamer, and they’ve done even worse against his slider (.198) and splitter (.243), according to Statcast. Montas throws each of those pitches at least 17 percent of the time, but he relies primarily on his sinker (38.6 percent). It’s a drastically different repertoire than Montas offered in 2018, when his sinker (55.4 percent) was his go-to pitch. He also occasionally featured a changeup that’s no longer in the picture.

Of course, altering your pitch mix doesn’t guarantee stardom. You’d better be able to command those pitches, too. Montas has to this point. Heatmaps via FanGraphs (2018, 2019) indicate he’s doing a better job keeping his pitches down and locating fewer of them in the middle of the plate compared to last season. In the process, Montas has thrown more strikes in general, raised his swinging-strike rate from 8.6 percent to 11.1, fooled more hitters into chasing his offerings outside the zone and dropped his contact rate against by nearly 5 percent. When hitters have made contact off Montas, it hasn’t been particularly damaging, and that doesn’t look as if it’s going to change. After all, his xwOBA against (.283) is even better than the nonthreatening .292 wOBA batters have managed so far. Beyond that, there’s nothing unusual in the .306 batting average on balls in play Montas has surrendered.

When Oakland unexpectedly earned a wild-card berth in 2018, it used reliever Liam Hendriks as an opener because it was lacking a front-line starter. Hendriks ended up enduring a rough outing during a loss for the Athletics, who are once again in wild-card contention. And if the A’s make it back to the one-game playoff this year, they just may be able to turn to an ace-like hurler in Montas.

Regardless of how the team’s season shakes out, it looks as though it has a long-term building block in Montas. The fact that Montas will make a minimal salary through next season and isn’t scheduled to become a free agent until after 2023 is all the better for the low-budget A’s, who also have no shortage of other promising starters. While Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo A.J. Puk, James Kaprielian and Jharel Cotton have all dealt with notable injuries of late, the ability is evident in each case. With at least some members of that group eventually slated to join Montas in Oakland, the club may be on the cusp of boasting a controllable, talent-rich rotation.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pirates Sign First-Rounder Quinn Priester

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The Pirates have announced the signing of first-round pick Quinn Priester. He’ll earn $3.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).

Priester, an Illinois high-schooler, went with the 18th overall selection. The slot value is $3.48MM. He’ll forego a commitment to TCU to launch his professional career.

Entering the draft, most rankings had Priester slotted in just the range he was chosen. Fangraphs (17) and MLB.com (19) had him just ahead of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (20) and Baseball America (23).

While the BA crew ranked a few additional players above Priester, they still lauded his “excellent physical projection and advanced strike-throwing capabilities.” MLB.com cited his “athleticism and the ease of his arm action.” It seems all the physical tools are there for Priester and the Bucs’ player development system.

Yankees Sign First Rounder Anthony Volpe

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The Yankees have announced the signing of first-round draft pick Anthony Volpe was signing on the dotted line. He’ll receive $2,740,300, per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter).

Volpe, a high-school shortstop from New Jersey, was taken with the 30th overall selection. That choice comes with a $2.37MM pool allocation, so the Yanks will have to find some savings from other signings.

Most pundits didn’t have Volpe rated quite this high. But the Fangraphs duo of Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel graded him the 38th-best prospect available.

Volpe is known most for his glovework, as he’s considered a polished and talented shortstop. Questions remain about his bat. Entering the draft, many wondered whether Volpe would end up at Vanderbilt, but he chose instead to launch a career with his hometown team.

Rays Prospect Brent Honeywell Fractures Bone In Elbow During Rehab Process

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MONDAY: Honeywell could be ready to pick up a ball again in January of 2020, Topkin tweets. His replacement ulnar collateral ligament is just fine, which represents a silver lining to the unfortunate situation.

SATURDAY: Top Rays prospect Brent Honeywell, on the mend from an April 2018 Tommy John Surgery, fractured a bone in his right elbow during a scheduled bullpen in Port Charlotte, Florida, and is out for the season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A surgery is scheduled for Monday.

Honeywell, a consensus top-30 prospect in every major outlet even after the Tommy John, had already experienced a major setback in his rehabilitation process this April when he was temporarily shelved with forearm soreness, an injury often precursor to major elbow damage. The 24-year-old’s vaunted screwball, perhaps the only pure version of the pitch used with regularity among professional hurlers today, was felt in some circles to be the tear’s root, though Honeywell only features it sporadically and had never been hurt prior to the surgery.

It’s obviously a brutal hit for both Honeywell and the Rays, though the latter can at least can hang its hat on an impressive young group of big-league arms and emerging talents below. Topkin, in a follow-up tweet, writes that Honeywell’s 2020 outlook is at yet unclear, though the club should know more after the Monday surgery is complete.

In 416 minor-league innings before last season, Honeywell had set down 458 batters on strikes while walking just 93 en route to a 2.88 ERA. He had little issue with the longball until he arrived for 2017 at Triple-A Durham, but his grounder rates remained robust. He was near-unanimously projected as a #2 starter in the majors should his stuff have returned to form. The future outlook now, of course, is far cloudier.

Rockies Place Seunghwan Oh On IL, Select Philip Diehl

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The Rockies have placed righty Seunghwan Oh on the 10-day injured list with a left abdominal strain. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (via Twitter) reported the move, which is retroactive to June 7th.

Taking the active roster spot is lefty Phillip Diehl. His contract was selected to the 40-man roster.

Oh has not pitched since May 30th, making for quite a lengthy stretch of inactivity for a player on the active roster. He has struggled quite a bit to open the season, working to a 9.33 ERA in 18 1/3 innings with 7.9 K/9 and 2.9 K/9. Opposing hitters haven’t struggled to make good contact, with 29 total hits and six long balls.

Diehl, 24, came to the Rox in a pre-season swap with the Yankees. He has compiled 29 strikeouts against eight walks in 27 1/3 upper-minors frames this year. Diehl owns a 2.30 cumulative ERA, though that mark has risen a fair bit since he was promoted to Triple-A following 13 1/3 scoreless frames at Double-A.

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