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Royals Likely Headed For Rebuild

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After a half-decade at or near the top of the AL Central, two appearances in the World Series and one championship, the Royals now look to be going in the opposite direction. As Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all hit the free-agent market, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required/recommended) that the Royals “expect to step back for perhaps three seasons” and embark on a rebuilding effort. Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star also penned an excellent column on the Royals’ trajectory over the weekend, reporting that Kansas City appears headed for a “substantial rebuild across the next two or three seasons.”

Royals GM Dayton Moore suggests to Dodd that the Royals have to at least be open-minded to virtually any trade scenario: “If somebody blows your doors off on something, you always have to look at it.” 

That, according to Rosenthal, could even include controllable pieces like Whit Merrifield, who broke out with a .288/.324/.460 slash and an AL-leading 34 stolen bases last season. Rosenthal also notes that Kansas City would listen to offers on left-handed reliever Scott Alexander, who notched a 2.48 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a ridiculous 73.8 percent ground-ball rate in 69 innings last year. Both players are controlled through the 2022 season and are still two years removed from arbitration eligibility.

Beyond that pairing, the Royals have a few more obvious trade candidates. Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria are both quality right-handed relievers that are just one year from free agency, though neither is signed at a bargain rate. Herrera projects to earn $8.3MM in arbitration, while Soria is still owed $10MM through the end of his contract. Jason Hammel didn’t have a strong first season in Kansas City but ate up 180 innings with quality K/BB numbers and a 4.37 FIP. He’s still owed $11MM through 2o18. Left-hander Danny Duffy, signed for another four years and $60MM, would represent one of the top starting pitching options on the trade market if the Royals field offers on him.

[Related: Kansas City Royals Offseason Outlook]

Interestingly, both Dodd and Rosenthal report that even as the Royals embark on a rebuild, they’re still in pursuit of a long-term deal with Hosmer. Per Dodd, team officials “see rebuilding scenarios that include” Hosmer in the fold. He’s still just 28 years of age, so Hosmer could indeed still be in his prime even at the conclusion of a two- or three-year rebuilding cycle, but it nonetheless seems counter-intuitive to sign him to what would almost certainly be a franchise-record contract while also dealing away big league talent.

Furthermore, re-signing Hosmer would effectively cost the Royals a top pick, as they currently project to receive three compensatory selections after the first round of next year’s draft due to the losses of Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain (assuming each signs for at least a $50MM guarantee, which seems likely). Those picks would not only give the Royals five picks in the top 40 or so selections of the draft — Kansas City also has a pick in Competitive Balance Round A — they’d also significantly bolster the Royals’ league-allotted draft bonus pool. Each of those comp picks for the loss of Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain would add about $2MM (give or take $100K) to the Royals’ draft pool, based on last year’s slot values.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Hosmer even has interest in returning to a Royals team that could spend the first two or three years of that contract losing more than it wins. If Hosmer’s market fails to develop, it certainly stands to reason that a return to the only organization he’s ever known could be a nice safety net. But, it’ll likely be difficult to sell Hosmer on staying in Kansas City while simultaneously trading away his longtime teammates for younger, unproven commodities.

If the Royals do deal away big league talent without acquiring much in the way of reinforcements for the 2018 roster, they’ll join the White Sox and Tigers as rebuilding clubs in the same division. That would seemingly give the Indians and Twins all the more motivation to act aggressively as they seek to bolster their clubs this winter, as few teams ever have the luxury of competing in a division where three of their four primary rivals are largely punting on the season at hand.

Indians, Michael Martinez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Indians agreed to a minor league deal with infielder/outfielder Michael Martinez over the weekend, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that a deal is expected to be announced “in the near future.” Martinez will receive an invite to Major League Spring Training.

Martinez, 35, keeps finding his way back to Cleveland. This will be the third minor league deal he’s inked with the Indians, who have twice traded Martinez away only to claim him back off waivers shortly thereafter. In all, he’s spent parts of three seasons in the organization, hitting a combined .257/.289/.331 in 145 Major League plate appearances.

Martinez has never hit much in the Majors, batting just .194/.243/.261 in 621 plate appearances between the Indians, Phillies, Rays, Pirates and Red Sox. He has experience at every position on the field outside of first base and catcher, though, so he’ll likely serve as a versatile depth option in Triple-A with the Indians to open the season. He’s a career .281/.333/.392 hitter at that level.

Shohei Ohtani Plans To Meet With Seven Teams

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Shohei Ohtani has already narrowed his list of potential landing spots to seven team, according to multiple reporters (with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM the first to tweet the final seven). Only the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Padres, Mariners, Rangers and Cubs will receive meetings with Ohtani. While Ohtani has three weeks to negotiate with teams, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that Ohtani could make a decision well before that point, noting that he could be introduced by his new club at next week’s Winter Meetings.

Of the remaining teams in the fold, the Rangers still have the most money to offer Ohtani, at $3.535MM, though his signing bonus seems increasingly to be a secondary consideration in where he ultimately signs, especially after last week’s reports that Ohtani could top $20MM in annual earnings in marketing endorsements. Certainly, his list of finalists reflects a preference for West Coast teams and a proximity to Japan, though the presence of the Rangers and Cubs indicates that he’s not quite locked into that mindset just yet.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, Rangers, Yankees, Erlin

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Shohei Ohtani’s narrowing market has dominated headlines today, though not every club joined in on the action.  According to ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required), at least three teams didn’t respond to the request made last week by Ohtani’s agent asking for each MLB club to pitch itself to the Japanese star via a seven-point written explanation.  It isn’t known which teams didn’t submit the information, though it’s probably safe to assume the Marlins were one, as they’re the only team known to have declined a pursuit of Ohtani’s services.  Unless a club had received some knowledge about Ohtani’s preferred destinations and knew not to bother, it doesn’t seem like there’s any reason why a team wouldn’t have at least tried to attract his attention.  As Olney put it in September, not even trying for Ohtani “would be the general manager’s version of failing to run out a ground ball.”

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • The Yankees weren’t one of the teams that made it through to the interview stage with Ohtani, though his agents at CAA reportedly tried to at least give New York some further consideration, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  It seems as if Ohtani simply prefers to play closer to the West Coast, and thus while the Yankees made a lot of sense for him on paper, there wasn’t any need to include them in the next stage of candidates.
  • The Rangers are one of the teams reportedly still in the hunt to sign Ohtani, though if they’re at a disadvantage if Ohtani is favoring West Coast teams, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News proposes a more unique way for the Rangers to stand out — a six-man rotation.  This would give Ohtani a schedule more akin to his one start-per-week schedule in Japan, plus give him more opportunity for at-bats in between his starts.  Beyond just favoring Ohtani, Grant argues that a six-man rotation might also help the Rangers keep Cole Hamels and Martin Perez fresher, while allowing the club to manage Matt Bush’s innings in a possible transition to starting pitching.  Texas manager Jeff Banister has spoken in favor of a six-man rotation in the past, and given the Rangers’ lack of starting pitching depth, now might be as good a time as any to be creative.
  • Robbie Erlin’s contract with the Padres will pay him $650K in 2018, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports (Twitter link).  The left-hander was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, though he and the Padres avoided the process by agreeing to that one-year deal, which fell just shy of MLBTR’s projected $700K salary for Erlin.  After undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2016, Erlin missed all of the 2017 season recovering from the procedure.

Mariners, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Cubs, Angels Among Teams To Meet With Shohei Ohtani

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11:40pm: The Angels are indeed one of the finalists, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).

10:39pm: The Angels are thought by “multiple sources” to be one of the finalists, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets.  The Tigers are out of the running, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

8:59pm: The Rangers and Cubs will both meet with Ohtani, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link), and they’re also the only two non-West Coast teams who appear to still be alive in the candidate process.  The Rangers, Grant notes, have yet to comment on their status one way or the other.

7:22pm: The Nationals won’t be receiving a meeting, the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reports (Twitter link).

6:58pm: The Braves are out, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter).

6:50pm: The Padres will receive a meeting with Ohtani, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links).  The Dodgers are also thought to still be active in the Ohtani sweepstakes though Heyman doesn’t have confirmation; regardless, the Dodgers aren’t thought to be favorites to land Ohtani.

6:38pm: The Rays, Cardinals and White Sox are out, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (all Twitter links).

6:15pm: The Diamondbacks won’t receive a meeting, Ken Rosenthal tweets.

6:12pm: The Blue Jays, Pirates, and Brewers are all out, as respectively reported by Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (all Twitter links).

5:48pm: The Mets are also out, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

5:38pm: Ohtani’s list is “heavy” on West Coast teams, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports, though the Cubs may still be involved.  Not every west-based team is included, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the A’s aren’t involved.

5:28pm: The Red Sox are also out of the running, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.  The Twins also won’t be getting a meeting with Ohtani, Heyman tweets.

5:16pm: The Giants and Mariners are among the teams that will receive meetings with Shohei Ohtani and his representatives next week, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  It isn’t known who the other finalists are in the Ohtani sweepstakes, though the Yankees are one of the teams that didn’t make the cut, as Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).

According to Cashman, Ohtani seems to be leaning towards West Coast teams in smaller markets.  This ties to a report from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman saying that Ohtani’s reps are informing teams that the two-way star would prefer to play in a smaller market.

The news adds another fascinating layer to the Ohtani sweepstakes, which was already one of the more intriguing free agent pursuits in recent memory.  Given the seeming lack of immediate financial motive that inspired Ohtani’s move to Major League Baseball, it opened the door for every team in baseball (regardless of market or payroll size) to make a push for the 23-year-old.  There had been speculation that Ohtani might look to avoid playing in a larger market, so this apparent confirmation creates a realistic possibility that he will land with a team that wouldn’t normally be considered a favorite to land such a coveted free agent.

Of course, San Francisco isn’t exactly a small market, though Ohtani wouldn’t necessarily be the center of attention on a club with such established stars as Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (and maybe even Giancarlo Stanton in the near future).  Playing for an NL team, however, would force Ohtani into a pinch-hitting or even a part-time outfield role for the at-bats he seeks in his attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues.  The Mariners do have such a DH spot available (in a timeshare with Nelson Cruz), and were considered to be a contender for Ohtani given their long history of Japanese players.

The Yankees also have had several significant Japanese players on their past and current rosters, and were widely seen as one of the major favorites for Ohtani’s services from a financial (in terms of available international bonus money) and positional (openings at DH and in the rotation) standpoint, not to mention their international fame and their young core of talent ready to make a World Series push.  With Ohtani now out of the picture, the Yankees could move to signing more pitching depth — a reunion with C.C. Sabathia has been widely speculated as a possibility — or a veteran bat to serve as designated hitter, if the club doesn’t just rotate its DH days to find plate appearances for everyone on the current roster.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Galvis, Hernandez, Braves

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Every team in baseball is monitoring the Giancarlo Stanton trade talks given their importance to the rest of the offseason transaction business, though the Nationals are perhaps watching closer than most, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman writes.  Should Stanton end up with the Dodgers, that would all but eliminate Los Angeles from pursuing Bryce Harper in free agency next offseason.  If the Giants or Cardinals (two teams that probably won’t be prime suitors for Harper next year) land Stanton, that leaves the Nats with another major threat in L.A. to worry about for Harper’s services, to go along with the interest he’s expected to draw from big spenders like the Yankees, Cubs, or Phillies.  Beyond that long-term issue, the Nats obviously also are concerned about the idea of Stanton going from an inter-division threat to a team that could end up facing Washington in the postseason.

Here’s some more from around the NL East…

  • Two Phillies middle infielders are drawing trade buzz, as the Padres have interest in shortstop Freddy Galvis, while the Angels continue to have interest in second baseman Cesar Hernandez, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  The Halos have long been connected to Hernandez for their second base vacancy, with interest dating back to last offseason.  San Diego have also long been looking for an answer at shortstop, though the Friars are reportedly now just in the market for a short-term fix until top Fernando Tatis Jr.  is ready.  Galvis is such a fit, as he will hit free agency next winter.  While the Phils have J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery ready to move into regular action in the middle infield, however, Rosenthal notes that the team is content having depth at second and short, and isn’t in any rush to move Galvis or Hernandez unless the right trade can be found.
  • The Braves have, somewhat surprisingly, “checked around about shortstops,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (ESPN Insider subscription required).  Dansby Swanson is seen as the team’s shortstop of the future, though he struggled in his first full MLB season and was even briefly demoted back to Triple-A last summer.  A short-term addition could used by Atlanta to give Swanson more development time; Olney outlines the lack of teams looking for shortstops this winter, so the Braves could have a wide choice of the market.

Marlins Agree To Framework Of Giancarlo Stanton Deals With Cards, Giants

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10:14pm: The 2-3 day timeline is “quite a hopeful estimate,” sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.

5:47pm: The Stanton deal is expected to be wrapped up within the next 2-3 days, Craig Mish tweets.

4:41pm: The Cardinals are offering to take on more of Stanton’s money than the Giants, according to Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link).

3:17pm: Neither the Cardinals nor Giants have set timetables for Stanton to make a decision, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

1:58pm: The Marlins have agreed to the “general framework” of Giancarlo Stanton trades with both the Cardinals and the Giants, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Buster Olney of ESPN suggested earlier this week that was the case when the Stanton camp (him and agent Joel Wolfe) met with those clubs.

Whether a deal ultimately occurs with the Cardinals or Giants will depend on Stanton’s willingness to waive his no-trade clause to join either club, which looks far from certain. In fact, Jim Bowden of SiriusXM tweets that the Dodgers are the only team he’d agree to waive his no-trade rights for as of now. Bowden adds that the Giants would have a better chance than the “long shot” Cardinals of landing the right fielder if the Dodgers were to pass on acquiring him. A Stanton trade is not expected to come together Sunday, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link).

The 27-year-old Stanton is a Los Angeles native who grew up rooting for the Dodgers, so his desire to join them more than anyone else isn’t surprising, especially when you consider their on-field success. Having never even played for a .500 team, let alone gone to the playoffs, since making his major league debut in 2010, Stanton made it clear during this past season that he’s tired of losing and wants to compete for championships. Stanton would likely get his wish to play meaningful baseball into the fall with the Dodgers, who are fresh off a National League-winning campaign, but Morosi reported earlier Sunday that the big-spending club is wary of the luxury-tax implications that would come with reeling in the NL MVP.

Stanton is due $295MM over the next decade, and while the Marlins could eat a large portion of that in order to maximize their return for the 59-home run man, Olney reported Saturday that Miami’s primary goal is to get Stanton’s money off the books. That would seemingly be a problem for the Dodgers, who will incur significant penalties if they run a mammoth payroll again in 2018. The Dodgers spent $237MM-plus in each of the past several seasons, and if it happens again next year, they’ll have to pay an extra 45 percent surcharge tax. Additionally, their top draft pick for 2018 (No. 30 overall) will drop 10 spots. Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource currently estimates LA’s payroll for next season to open at $208MM-plus, but that’s obviously without factoring in Stanton or any other potential additions.

Meanwhile, although the Giants are already near the $197MM luxury tax for 2018 (they have upward of $190MM in payroll commitments), they’re reportedly willing to take on the majority of Stanton’s money if he’d waive his NTC to go to San Francisco. The Cardinals have far less money on the books for next year ($127MM-plus), but it’s unclear how much of Stanton’s money they’d add in a trade. Of course, along with the cash left on his deal, Stanton’s ability to opt out of the pact after the 2020 season has added another complication to trade talks between the Marlins and other teams. Despite the roadblocks, though,  the cost-cutting Marlins are seemingly in position to ship out Stanton if he green lights a move to St. Louis or San Francisco.

AL Central Notes: Royals, Boone, Jackson, Tribe, Tigers

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With Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas all hitting free agency, there has been wide speculation that the Royals could be entering a rebuild phase.  This is the general consensus around the league, Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes, even if Hosmer is re-signed.  The club itself is unsure about its contention plans for the immediate future, as the exact level of the rebuild is still in question — “club officials see rebuilding scenarios that include” Hosmer on the roster, Dodd writes.  This would seemingly put K.C. in an awkward decision this winter, as spending nine figures to re-sign Hosmer doesn’t seem to make much sense for a team that already has an eye towards reloading its farm system, though GM Dayton Moore is reportedly not keen on the idea of a full teardown.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • The Twins and Aaron Boone recently had mutual interest in a front office role before Boone was hired to be the Yankees’ new manager, according to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (hat tip to 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson).
  • The Indians are interested in a reunion with Austin Jackson “but at the right price,” according to Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Jackson proved to be a big bargain for the Tribe in 2017, as he signed a minor league deal and then hit an outstanding .318/.387/.482 over 318 plate appearances while seeing time at all three outfield positions.  Jackson would bring a right-handed presence to a projected Cleveland outfield that currently features three left-handed hitters (Michael Brantley, Bradley Zimmer, Lonnie Chisenhall), though there’s certainly question as to whether Jackson can sustain his production, given his .385 BABIP from last season and his recent history of subpar offensive numbers.
  • The Tigers figure to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, though as The Athletic’s Katie Strang notes, those arms will come in the form of inexpensive MLB and minor league signings and possibly a Rule 5 Draft pick.  Names like Clay Buchholz, Drew Smyly or Nick Burdi could fit, though the latter two are recovering from Tommy John surgery and could be tough fits on the 40-man roster.

AL East Notes: Sabathia, Yankees, Longoria, Cards, Rays, Orioles

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The Yankees were recently in contact with C.C. Sabathia, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The southpaw said after the season that he hoped to return to the Bronx, and it was widely assumed that Sabathia was something of a backup plan for the Yankees if the club missed out on landing Shohei Ohtani.  New York did check in with Sabathia, as per Heyman, even before today’s news broke that the Yankees wouldn’t be receiving a meeting with Ohtani and his representatives.  Sabathia is both a well-respected veteran and he’s been a quietly-effective innings-eater over the last few seasons, so on paper, he could be seen as the favorite for the Yankees’ fifth starter job at this point in the offseason.

Some more rumblings from around the AL East…

  • Evan Longoria’s name hasn’t been “seriously involved” in any trade discussions between the Rays and Cardinals, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, though Morosi says to “stay tuned” should the Cards fail to land Giancarlo Stanton.  St. Louis has been known to be looking for an impact bat this winter and will likely explore several alternatives if they come up short in their pursuit of Stanton, so it makes sense that the Cardinals could expand their talks with the Rays about Alex Colome to also include Longoria.  Obstacles to a deal, however, include the $86MM Longoria is owed through the 2022 season, his age (32), and the fact that he is coming off his worst offensive season (.312 wOBA, 96 wRC+).
  • The Rays will be heavily counting on internal arms to fill several holes in the bullpen, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  The club has already parted ways with Brad Boxberger, Xavier Cedeno, and Chase Whitley, and Tommy Hunter, Sergio Romo, and Steve Cishek are free agents.  This opens the door for several young pitchers to win relief jobs, or starters that don’t make the rotation could be used in the pen.  “While we want to make sure we have a stable group, we also want to ensure we are giving every opportunity to those guys to realize their upside,” senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said.
  • A poor season could lead to the Orioles dealing some veterans at the trade deadline and a possible rebuild, though BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Dan Connolly doubts that the team would embark on a total scorched-earth rebuild a la the Astros or Cubs.  It’s also probably unlikely that a struggling O’s team would even deal impending free agent Manny Machado (barring an impossible-to-refuse offer) at the deadline due to Peter Angelos’ philosophy that “the season-ticket holders paid to see a certain team and weakening that promised product in-season is disingenuous.”
  • Also from Connolly’s mailbag piece, he doesn’t see the Orioles landing any of the top arms in the free agent market, so the club could check into acquiring a highly-paid pitcher coming off a down season.  The O’s likely wouldn’t have to give up much minor league talent in return, plus the other team would probably be covering at least some of the pitcher’s contract.  A bad contract swap could also be a consideration, as the O’s could help make up the salaries by dealing one of their own expensive players that might no longer be a fit — Connolly cites Mark Trumbo as a prime candidate in this scenario.  This wouldn’t be a perfect fit to solve Baltimore’s pitching woes, though it would at least re-direct some funds towards the Orioles’ pressing need in the rotation.

MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason Outlook Series

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The MLB Trade Rumors writing staff has completed our annual winter previews for all 30 teams.  Given the unusually quiet nature of this offseason so far, every team still has much to address on their winter to-do lists even though we’re already in December.  Click the links for a full analysis of what your favorite team has in store before Opening Day…

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

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