NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Phillies, Lowrie, Marlins
Ryan Zimmerman is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and the longtime Nationals staple tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that he has yet to speak to GM Mike Rizzo or team ownership about what he hopes will be a continued relationship in 2020 and beyond. The Nats hold an $18MM club option ($2MM buyout) on Zimmerman for next season that is highly unlikely to be exercised, given the veteran’s injuries and declining production in recent years. Zimmerman is very eager to finish his career with the only franchise he has ever known, and reiterated that he is open to playing the rest of his career by ear, even returning just in a platoon situation at first base.
“I’m willing to come back [to Washington] and do one year, year by year, for a lot less money,” Zimmerman said. “I don’t think the money matters to me anymore. I just want to continue to play baseball and keep playing baseball in D.C. I’m lucky that my kids are here. My family is here.” If the Nats didn’t want to keep Zimmerman on the roster, he stopped short of saying he’d retire, though “it would be a tough decision to leave my family and not be around” while playing in another city.
Here’s more from around the NL East…
- The Phillies‘ surprise hire of former manager Charlie Manuel as the team’s new hitting coach is explored by Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription required), who wonders if it could be a harbinger of future moves if the Phils continue to underachieve. Owner John Middleton, as per Gelb, “has solicited opinions in recent weeks from inside and outside the organization to gain a clearer picture of his franchise’s warts,” and Middleton also “became a decisive voice in” Manuel’s hiring. It stands to reason that further coaching changes could be made, or manager Gabe Kapler could be on the hot seat, as he is only under contract through the 2020 season.
- Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen gave reporters (including the New York Post’s Mike Puma) an update on Jed Lowrie on Wednesday, saying that Lowrie has been participating in simulated games, including running, fielding, and hitting drills. Due to a string of knee, hamstring, and calf injuries, Lowrie hasn’t played at all this season, and despite his recent progress, it still isn’t clear if he’ll be able to make it onto the field. Van Wagenen is still hopeful Lowrie can play in 2019, though he also didn’t reveal any plans for a minor league rehab assignment. Since Lowrie would obviously need a good deal of time to ramp up, there isn’t a lot of opportunity left for an overly-lengthy rehab assignment, given that the minor league season comes to a close in early September.
- Marlins CEO Derek Jeter was non-committal about the idea of moving in the fences at Marlins Park for 2020, telling MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro and other reporters that the organization would “maybe” consider such an idea. As Frisaro notes, Marlins Park has allowed the second-fewest home runs of any stadium in baseball since the start of the 2012 season (when the Miami ballpark opened), and while the Marlins’ oft-disappointing lineups have undoubtedly played a role in this power outage, players on all teams have been constantly bedeviled by the ballpark’s big dimensions.
Reds Select Joel Kuhnel’s Contract
The Reds have selected the contract of right-hander Joel Kuhnel from Triple-A Louisville, and also called up righty Matt Bowman from their top affiliate, the club announced (Twitter link). Kuhnel and Bowman will take the roster spots of righty Sal Romano, who was optioned to Louisville, and Jared Hughes, who was claimed off waivers by the Phillies.
This will be the 24-year-old Kuhnel’s first taste of the big leagues, coming a little over three years after being the Reds’ 11th-round pick in the 2016 draft. Kuhnel pitched in both Double-A and Triple-A for the first time in 2019, quickly moving up the ladder thanks to a combined 2.18 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 3.13 K/BB rate over 53 2/3 relief innings. MLB.com ranks Kuhnel as the 24th-best prospect in Cincinnati’s farm system, noting that “his fastball touches triple-digits with ease and he mixes in an 89-93 mph slider and a low-90s changeup.”
Phillies Claim Jared Hughes
The Phillies announced that righty Jared Hughes has been claimed off waivers from the Reds. To make room on the 40-man roster, the Phils placed right-hander Edubray Ramos on the 60-day injured list.
In claiming Hughes, Philadelphia absorbs the roughly $531K still owed to the right-hander for the remainder of the season. Hughes is in the last guaranteed season of a two-year, $4.5MM contract, though the Phillies have a club option on his services (for $3MM with a $250K buyout) for the 2020 season. For the present, Hughes is a relatively low-cost pickup for a Phillies team that has sorely needed some help for its injury-riddled bullpen, though Hughes hasn’t been in the best of form in recent weeks.
After an outstanding debut year in Cincinnati that saw him post a 1.94 ERA over 78 2/3 innings, Hughes came back to earth in 2019, posting a 4.10 ERA, 6.3 K/9, and 1.79 K/BB rate over 48 1/3 frames. The extreme ground-ball pitcher has continued to keep the ball out of the air, as evidenced by a 60.7% grounder rate, but he has suffered when batters have gotten some arc — Hughes has a 20% homer/fly ball rate, far above his 12.3% career average.
Despite the extra homers, however, Hughes only really started to run into some struggles recently. He had a 2.88 ERA as late as July 24 before enduring a nightmarish inning against the Rockies on July 26 that saw him allow six runs. That began a stretch of six outings that saw Hughes post a 10.57 ERA over 7 2/3 innings of work, with as many walks (five) as strikeouts, and not a single home run allowed to account for that damage. Hughes also served a three-game suspension for his role in the already-infamous brawl between the Reds and Pirates on July 30.
The Reds have been one of the league’s more active teams since the trade deadline, particularly on the pitching front. Cincinnati claimed Kevin Gausman off waivers from the Braves, signed veterans Brad Boxberger, Junichi Tazawa and Tim Collins to minor league contracts, and parted ways with Hughes and David Hernandez. Since it seemed Hughes was no longer in the club’s plans for 2020, the Reds save a bit of cash by letting him go to the Phillies now rather than paying a buyout at season’s end.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/15/19
Catching up on some minor league moves from the past week…
- The Orioles signed left-hander Hunter Cervenka to a minor league contract. Cervenka had a 2.95 ERA, 10.5 K/9, and 2.17 K/BB rate over 42 2/3 innings for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate this season before being released in late July. The 29-year-old has been able to consistently miss bats (career 9.4 K/9) over his 506 2/3 minor league innings, though given that he has also battled some at-times extreme control problems, this season’s 4.5 BB/9 is a fairly positive development for the southpaw. Cervenka tossed 48 innings for the Braves and Marlins in 2016-17 and hasn’t been back to the big leagues since, spending 2018 pitching in the independent Atlantic League and in the Tigers’ farm system.
- The Twins released infielder Jordany Valdespin, as per Morrie Silver of the Rochester Red Wings (the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate). 2019 marked Valdespin’s first season of affiliated ball since he playing in the Tigers’ farm system in 2016, as Valdespin spent the previous two seasons in the Mexican League and with the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. The former utilityman played almost exclusively as a second baseman for Rochester this season, hitting .294/.343/.444 over 231 plate appearances. It isn’t far removed from the .283/.337/.420 slash line that the 31-year-old Valdespin has posted over 2896 career minor league PA. He also has four seasons of MLB experience, appearing in 214 games with the Mets and Marlins from 2012-15 (hitting .216/.271/.369 over those 467 PA in the majors).
NL Notes: Carlson, Hader, Hosmer, Ahmed
The Cardinals have promoted top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson to Triple-A, per an announcement from the club’s top affiliate. That puts the 20-year-old switch-hitter right on the doorstep of the big leagues. Carlson turned in a strong .281/.364/.518 batting line with 21 long balls and 18 steals over 483 Double-A plate appearances. It’s not clear whether the club has any thought of a late-2019 MLB promotion for the talented youngster.
More from the National League …
- MLB.com’s Mike Petriello provides an interesting examination of the feast-or-famine experience hitters have had this year against Brewers lefty relief ace Josh Hader. It really is a curious situation, as Petriello explains in full detail. In essence: Hader is harder to make contact against than anyone in baseball. But when batters have put bat to ball this year, they’ve tended to make loud sounds and often ended up trotting the bases. Petriello identifies a few potential causes/fixes for the Milwaukee southpaw. In particular, it seems Hader can work on reducing first-pitch predictability and tightening up his command at times. You’ll certainly want to read the entire piece to appreciate it.
- As he continues to produce middling overall offensive numbers, Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer is showing increasingly yawning platoon splits, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. It’s simple enough, in theory, to spell him against southpaws. But that’s tough to do given the club’s mammoth investment in Hosmer. Skipper Andy Green made clear it’s not an immediate possibility. That makes sense, as the Friars have to hope that Hosmer turns a corner and can afford to give him the leash to work things out. But if it comes down to it, the extreme platoon situation actually ought to make it easier in the long run to deal with a contract that has simply not panned out.
- Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed has long been lauded for his superlative glovework, but has mostly remained an obscure player. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic highlights the growing value of the 29-year-old, who is now finally marrying his excellent defensive performance with much-improved hitting. With torrid recent streak, Ahmed has reached league-average offensive levels for the season as a whole. Piecoro provides an excellent look at Ahmed’s thus-far successful efforts to avoid chasing pitches out of the zone and make better contact when he does offer. Ahmed, who is earning $3.663MM this season, is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility.
MLBTR Poll: The NL East Bullpen Experience
As I watched last night’s Braves-Mets game, the already fascinating NL East bullpen dynamics really came into view. Here we have four clubs — those two, plus the Nationals and Phillies — with big expectations and major core talent, all trying to get past season-long relief woes.
Odds are, none of these clubs will truly put the ‘pen problems behind them between now and the end of the season. Even if one or more teams get on a relief roll, you just know that fans — and, quite likely, each club’s uniformed and non-uniformed personnel — will have near-constant butterflies as soon as the starter hits the showers.
Honestly, it’s exciting. The Braves still hold a commanding lead, but the Nats are close enough that they can’t assume anything. Plus, they have to hone their late-inning approach for the postseason. The other three clubs will obviously be going all out to eke out every possible win from here to the finish line, knowing full well how tight the Wild Card race (if not also the division) will be down the stretch.
The Nats and Mets have received brutal overall results from their relief units all season long. In terms of ERA, their units rank second and third-worst in baseball, surpassed only by the lowly Orioles in the frequency of earned-runs allowed. While the Nationals’ rightly-maligned unit has probably received the most attention, it is the only one of the four that checks in above replacement level (only barely) by measure of FIP-based fWAR. The Mets, Braves, and Phillies are all in the black by that metric. Of course, the Nats’ relief corps is the runaway league leader in net win-percentage deducted (as opposed to added), so it has well earned its reputation for unreliability.
Recent developments have shifted the picture, but haven’t necessarily improved the outlook. The Phillies’ health issues are worsening, with David Robertson down for the year and Adam Morgan recently hitting the shelf. Closer Hector Neris has at least been back on the upswing of late. The Mets’ steadiest reliever, Seth Lugo, was just roughed up last night; their most talented pen arm, Edwin Diaz, has still not emerged from his season-long doldrums. Both of those clubs forewent opportunities to improve at the deadline and have been picking up veterans discarded by other teams. The Nationals did make some notable but modest deadline acquisitions and have received good work from them so far. But overworked closer Sean Doolittle hasn’t been his reliable self and the unit as a whole remains quite underwhelming. While the Braves surely added the most pen talent at the deadline, their new arms have been anything but conquering heroes. Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, and Chris Martin have combined to allow 19 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in Atlanta. As a whole, the Atlanta relievers have been particularly awful over the past thirty days.
Any way you cut it, it seems reasonable to expect that we’re in for a thrilling roller-coaster the rest of the way. If you had to take one of these bullpen units for the next six weeks and a potential postseason run thereafter, which would it be? (It bears emphasizing that “best” is a relative term.)
(Poll link for app users.)
Which NL East Bullpen Is Best?
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Braves 51% (2,348)
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Nationals 20% (909)
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Mets 18% (816)
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Phillies 11% (521)
Total votes: 4,594
Mariners Select Taylor Guilbeau
The Mariners announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of lefty Taylor Guilbeau from Triple-A Tacoma and placed right-hander Brandon Brennan on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation.
Guilbeau, 26, currently ranks 22nd among Mariners prospects at both MLB.com and Baseball America. Seattle acquired the hard-throwing southpaw in the trade that sent Roenis Elias to the Nationals, and he’ll step into the Seattle bullpen after just five innings with the team’s Tacoma affiliate.
A tenth-round pick by the Nationals back in 2015, Guilbeau posted mixed results as a starter before enjoying greater success out of the ‘pen. Last season was Guilbeau’s first full year as a reliever, and after an ugly outing to begin the season in early May, he rattled off 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball in Class-A Advanced and averaged nearly a strikeout per inning along the way. Control has long been an issue for Guilbeau, but he’s been better in that department in 2019. Through 48 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he’s worked to a 2.77 ERA with 10.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate near 58 percent.
MLB.com’s scouting report on Guilbeau notes that the move to relief substantially bolstered his fastball, and he was throwing 95 to 96 mph in last year’s Arizona Fall League. In addition to an impressive fastball, Guilbeau has an above-average slider but draws more questionable reviews on his changeup and ability to locate the ball. The Mariners likely view Guilbeau as a pure relief option, and his proximity to the big leagues undoubtedly held appeal as well. Adding players either at the MLB level or close to graduating there has been a point of emphasis for the Mariners in their rebuild, and Guilbeau will now get an opportunity to show that he’s deserving of a long-term place in the Seattle relief corps.
The 28-year-old Brennan will return to the injured list after making just three appearances. The Rule 5 pick allowed a solo homer and a walk in two innings of work before landing back on the IL due to shoulder discomfort for the second time this season.
Yankees Sign David Hernandez
The Yankees agreed to a minor league contract with veteran right-hander David Hernandez, as was first reported by Conor Foley of the Scranton Times-Tribune (via Twitter). The Yankees didn’t make any formal announcement of the move, but Hernandez actually pitched last night for the team’s Triple-A club.
Hernandez, 34, was released by the Reds on Sunday after struggling through most of the 2019 season. The veteran signed a two-year, $5MM contract with Cincinnati prior to the 2018 season and pitched well in the first year of that deal, logging a 2.53 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9 and a 32.9 percent ground-ball rate. The 2019 season has fallen on the opposite end of the spectrum, though, as Hernandez was shellacked for an 8.02 earned run average in 42 2/3 innings.
Hernandez has already allowed more homers (seven) than he did in 64 innings last year (six), and his BB/9 mark has jumped from 2.4 to 4.2. That said, he’s averaged 11.2 strikeouts per nine inning pitched, the second-best mark of his career, and has actually seen his velocity improve over last year. After averaging 93 mph on his heater in 2018, Hernandez is averaging 93.6 mph in that regard in 2019. He’s also sitting on career-highs in swinging-strike rate (14.7 percent) and opponents’ chase rate (35.3 percent).
While his diminished control has certainly been a factor in his poor results, Hernandez has also been plagued by a .393 average on balls in play and a fluky 54.5 percent strand rate. That BABIP is the second-highest mark of any pitcher in baseball with at least 40 innings pitched (trailing only Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes), and only three pitchers have seen a lower left-on-base percentage in 2019. Hernandez carries a career 75 percent strand rate, making this season’s alarmingly low rate seem all the more likely to be an aberration.
There’s no guarantee that the veteran Hernandez will round back into form in a new setting, but he’ll look to right the ship in a lower-pressure setting with Triple-A Scranton — likely in hopes of emerging as a September callup for the Yankees. New York would only owe Hernandez the prorated league minimum for any time he spends on the big league roster, as the Reds will remain on the hook for the rest of this season’s $2.5MM salary.
AL West Notes: Angels, Crawford, Bailey
After opting out of their stadium lease last October, the Angels agreed to a one-year lease extension with the city of Anaheim back in January. However, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reports that the extension doesn’t mean the team’s lease now expires after the 2020 season. Rather, the January agreement was merely an extension of the opt-out agreement — effectively delaying the team’s final say on whether it’ll opt out at all or remain in its current lease with Angel Stadium, which runs through 2020. The Angels have explored the possibility of building new stadium in Long Beach and in Anaheim, but a third option would simply be to remain in their current park through the end of their current lease in 2029. Angels ownership will have until Dec. 31 to ultimately make that call; Shaikin suggests that any agreement on a Long Beach development would require the renegotiation of a short-term lease in the current facility while the new structure is built.
More news and notes out of the AL West…
- Prior to embarking on the team’s rebuild, Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto tasked upwards of 20 baseball operations and analytics staffers with identifying potential acquisitions, writes Corey Brock of The Athletic (subscription required). “The most oft-mentioned hypothetically-acquired player was J.P. [Crawford], who was identified by virtually all of those who took part in the project,” Dipoto tells Brock. The organization widely viewed Crawford as an affordable and potentially available shortstop of the future, and Dipoto now says the club is more confident than ever that Crawford can be just that type of piece. The 24-year-old already dropped jaws across the baseball world with one of the season’s most spectacular defensive plays late last month (video link), and the club believes the work he’s put in with infield coach Perry Hill has improved his footwork to the point that he can be a consistent plus with the glove. Crawford’s .241/.321/.398 (95 wRC+) batting line isn’t all that eye-catching, the Mariners are optimistic that his bat will improve as his glove has this season. Crawford spent enough time in the minors this season that he can be controlled through the 2025 season.
- Last night’s gem from Homer Bailey — seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with one walk and seven strikeouts — was well-timed but doesn’t secure the veteran’s place in the Athletics‘ rotation, writes Ben Ross of NBC Sports Bay Area. Bailey has pitched well in all of his home starts and last night’s road outing in San Francisco, but he’s also been torched in visits to Minute Maid Park (Astros) and Wrigley Field (Cubs). Each of Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Tanner Roark and Chris Bassitt appears locked into a rotation spot now, and the A’s will soon welcome back Sean Manaea from the injured list. A healthy Manaea would be Oakland’s best starter, leaving Bailey’s status somewhat unclear. The A’s also added Matt Harvey on a minor league contract last night, giving them another potential alternative to Bailey (depending, of course, on his performance in Triple-A Las Vegas).
Latest On A’s Extension Possibilities
With third baseman Matt Chapman and shortstop Marcus Semien, the left side of the Athletics’ infield is among the most productive in baseball. The fact that the two combine to make less than $6MM (almost all of which belongs to Semien) only adds to their appeal from the low-budget Athletics’ perspective. But their days of earning relatively meager salaries might not last for much longer. Both players are candidates for contract extensions, though Semien will reach free agency after next season if nothing comes together between him and Oakland in the meantime.
To this point, the A’s haven’t handed out a longer or richer contract than the six-year, $66MM extension they signed third baseman Eric Chavez to entering the 2004 campaign. They now have a new standout at the hot corner in Chapman, a Scott Boras client who could eventually unseat Chavez as the recipient of the biggest deal in team history. It’s “believed” the Athletics are considering making Chapman an offer for longer than the one Chavez signed 15 years ago, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Fortunately for the Athletics, there’s no imminent danger of losing Chapman. The 26-year-old isn’t even slated to reach arbitration for the first time until after 2020, and once he does, he’ll still be controllable for three seasons. Nevertheless, though, the A’s may want to get out in front of the arbitration process with Chapman. After all, he has burst out as one of the most valuable players in the sport over the past couple seasons, combining defensive virtuosity with marvelous offense.
Dating back to last year, his first full season in the majors, Chapman has slashed .267/.347/.506 (130 wRC+) with 51 home runs in 1,116 plate appearances. His 10.7 fWAR in that span ranks seventh among all position players, putting him just behind Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon – a pending free agent who could collect a payday in the $150MM range in the offseason.
Considering the disparate points they’re at in their careers, Chapman obviously doesn’t have the earning power of Rendon. Depending on the length of the deal, though, Chapman could come within shouting distance of nine figures. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd posited last October that a seven-year, $80MM commitment might not have been out of reach on an extension, and that was before Chapman’s second straight overwhelmingly successful season.
Semien, 29 next month, has joined Chapman in emerging as an integral Athletic in the past couple years. By FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, Semien was a slightly below league-average offensive producer from 2013-18, but the former White Sox infielder has found another gear this season. He’s hitting .273/.359/.469 (122 wRC+) with 19 HRs through 551 trips to the plate. Between his improved offense and quality defense, Semien has accounted for a personal-best 4.6 fWAR thus far. He’ll absolutely earn a solid raise in arbitration during the winter, but perhaps the Athletics will lock him up before it comes to that. Having just switched representation last week, he told Slusser his goal is to stick with the A’s for the long haul.
“That’s always been a big want for our family,” Semien said. “We’re extremely happy living here year round — that’s what anyone would want. And this team is such an amazing group to be around. Everyone talks about how bad the stadium is but when you have a group of guys you enjoy being around, that doesn’t matter.”
Oakland previously tried to extend Semien at the beginning of the 2017 season, when he would’ve come much cheaper. But the club wasn’t willing to match the six-year, $25MM guarantee the White Sox awarded shortstop Tim Anderson around the same time, according to Slusser. No agreement materialized as a result, and that may not change going forward, as Slusser writes “it’s hard to imagine” the A’s giving Semien a contract worth that much more than Chavez’s. It seems a long-term accord for Chapman is the bigger priority for the team.