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Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 11:59pm CDT

If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018. The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark – while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Boras: Dallas Keuchel Will Be Ready Quickly

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 10:38pm CDT

Free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel hasn’t pitched in a major league game since last October and didn’t participate in spring training. As a result, there’s plenty of concern over how fast Keuchel will be ready to join a team when he ends his months-long stay on the open market and signs. But clubs shouldn’t worry about Keuchel’s preparedness, according to agent Scott Boras, who told Jon Morosi of MLB.com on Thursday that his client could be good to pitch within approximately a week of signing.

Keuchel has been throwing a 95- to 104-pitch sim game every five days to stay in shape, Boras said. We’ve heard that before (links here), but the potential one-week time frame is a new development. However, it’s likely worth taking with a grain of salt. For one, it’s not unusual for Boras to publicly talk up a client. Beyond that, it would be reasonable for Keuchel’s next employer to prefer for the 31-year-old to embark on a short minor league tuneup. Doing so would give Keuchel an opportunity to pitch in a real game (or games) before he potentially impacts a major league pennant race.

Keuchel has garnered plenty of big-game experience, including with the World Series-winning Astros in 2017, and carries a tremendous regular-season track record going back to his 2014 breakout. Nevertheless, the 2015 AL Cy Young winner hasn’t been able to find a team since free agency opened last Oct. 29. Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is in the same boat, but it’s one that figures to finally reach shore soon.

After midnight on June 2, the day before the draft begins, teams will be able to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel without having to pay anything other than money. Clubs would have to surrender draft compensation before then, which has helped lead to this impasse between MLB and the two high-profile free agents.

Mets Notes: Potential Sellers, Alonso, Lugo

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 9:57pm CDT

The latest out of Queens…

The Mets started 2019 in solid fashion, sitting a season-high five games over .500 through 13 contests, but have stumbled over the past month and a half. Now in possession of a 27-28 record, the Mets should consider an aggressive teardown if they’re not in contention around the July 31 trade deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. By going in that direction, Olney notes the Mets would mimic the 2015 Padres – a team that tried to contend, wound up failing miserably and then traded away several big-name acquisitions within the next year (Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton and James Shields among them). San Diego general manager A.J. Preller’s decision to pivot toward a rebuild helped the Padres construct an elite pool of young talent that has begun paying enormous dividends at the major league level. If Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen takes a similar route sometime soon, Olney names closer Edwin Diaz and the right-handed starter trio of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler as players he could market in an effort to add more high-end youth to the organization.
Of course, New York’s not devoid of young, impact talent in the bigs. First baseman Pete Alonso, he of the .264/.338/.624 line (151 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 222 plate appearances, is a testament to that. The 23-year-old may be on his way to top rookie honors in the National League, but his journey to the majors wasn’t easy, as Tim Britton of The Athletic details. Alonso first joined the organization as the 64th pick of the 2016 draft, and Britton – with help from Alonso, his father and multiple Mets scouts – revisits that event and many other moments that led to it.
The Mets are likely to activate reliever Seth Lugo from the 10-day injured list Friday, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News suggests. Lugo went to the IL on May 20 with right shoulder tendinitis, which has left New York’s disappointing bullpen without arguably its best setup man. The 29-year-old Lugo, a former starter, broke out as a late-game force in 2018 and has since pitched to a 2.30 ERA/2.97 FIP with 8.73 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate in 78 1/3 relief innings.

Quick Hits: 2009 Draft, Trout, Morton, Twins, Bradley, Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2019 at 9:20pm CDT

Stephen Strasburg generated headlines as the consensus first overall pick of the 2009 draft, though that draft has taken on a different historic import almost ten years later, as that was the night Mike Trout officially became a Major League player. MLB.com’s Jim Callis looks back at the 2009 draft with a decade of hindsight, re-drafting the first round with the top players who were selected (and signed contracts) from that year’s class. In this scenario, the Nationals take Trout first overall instead of Strasburg, who falls to the Pirates with the fourth overall pick. The Mariners take Nolan Arenado with the second pick, while the Padres take Paul Goldschmidt third overall.

The actual draft spots of these superstars (Trout went 25th overall, Arenado in the second round, and Goldschmidt not until the eighth round) is indicative of the draft’s unpredictable nature, as teams and pundits simply never know which unheralded youngster might develop into a gem. Callis includes several interesting notes and scouting opinions about various players at the time of the 2009 draft, including the item that only the Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Tigers were known to be linked to Trout, among teams who had a chance to select him before the Angels. Many clubs didn’t have interest due to rumors that Trout was seeking a $2.5MM draft bonus, which would’ve exceeded the slot price for all but the top five picks, though in the end Trout signed with the Angels for the $1.215MM league-recommended slot price attached to the 25th overall selection.

Poll: Choose Your Franchise Catcher

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 9:06pm CDT

Although potential Hall of Famers Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are among the most decorated catchers in baseball history, it appears the two 30-somethings have given way to a new guard at the position. J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras stand out as the most valuable behind-the-plate building blocks in today’s game, owing to performance, age and affordable control. The Brewers’ Yasmani Grandal also belongs in the current class of elite backstops, but the fact that he’s 30 years old, expensive and only signed through this season works against him in comparison to Realmuto, Contreras and Sanchez.

Among those three, the longest big league track record belongs to the Phillies’ Realmuto, who’s in his age-28 season. The athletic Realmuto broke out with the Marlins in 2016 and proceeded to rack up 11.3 fWAR through last year, trailing only Posey and Grandal at his position. He’s fresh off back-to-back 4.0-fWAR seasons and is on a similar pace in his first year as a Phillie.

So far in his new digs, Realmuto has accounted for 2.0 fWAR through 208 plate appearances. While Realmuto’s offensive production has dropped from where it was over the previous three seasons (115 wRC+), his 102 wRC+ remains far above average for his position (89). He’s also an all-world defensive player who possesses far more speed than you’d expect a catcher to have. If there’s one check against Realmuto, it’s that he’s only under control for another season after this one, in which he’s earning $5.9MM.

No full-time catcher has fared better at the plate this season than the hard-hitting Sanchez, whose 154 wRC+ ranks 18th among all players with at least 100 PA. The 26-year-old has mashed 17 home runs, good for a fifth-place tie, to put an uninspiring 2018 behind him. Sanchez combined for 7.5 fWAR from 2016-17, his first two seasons, but fell to 1.7 in ’18 and sits well behind Realmuto this season (1.2). Although Sanchez has a big arm, he’s not in Realmuto’s stratosphere as an overall defender. However, Sanchez is making barely over the league minimum this year and comes with three more seasons of control via arbitration.

Contreras, who turned 27 on May 13, has been a revelation at the plate since he debuted in 2016. Dating back to then, Contreras’ 119 wRC+ ranks second among backstops (only Sanchez’s 128 has been better), while his 7.5 fWAR is eighth. He’s at 152 and 1.7 in those categories this year, having swatted 12 homers and gotten on base at a 40 percent clip. Although Contreras has not gotten rave reviews behind the plate this season or for most of his career, his offense, age and affordability are all huge pluses. Like Sanchez, he’s in his final pre-arb season and controllable through 2022.

Considering all of the above factors, which of these three catchers would you want to build a team around?

(poll link for app users)

Choose Your Franchise Catcher

J.T. Realmuto 39.67% (5,316 votes)

Gary Sanchez 30.88% (4,139 votes)

Willson Contreras 29.45% (3,947 votes)

Total Votes: 13,402

Last Season’s 2 Best Closers Have Fallen Off

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 8:16pm CDT

Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.

In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).

Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.

No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.

Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.

It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.

Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).

Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.

What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.

While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Draft Prospect Carter Stewart To Sign With Japanese Team

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | May 30, 2019 at 8:07pm CDT

TODAY: Stewart will receive roughly $6.2MM in guaranteed money, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, though incentives could make the total in the range of $11MM-$12MM, plus even more is available in awards bonuses.

MAY 21, 8:25pm: Stewart will sign a six-year contract worth more than $7MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He’ll start off in the minor leagues over in Japan.

One can only wonder if Stewart’s decision will ultimately inspire other domestic amateurs to pursue similar opportunities overseas. By securing a $7MM+ guarantee, he’ll almost certainly eclipse what he’d have made in terms of his bonus in next month’s draft. While he’s now locked in his salaries for more than a half decade and put a fairly hard cap on what he can earn, Stewart would’ve likely been years away from even being a consideration for an MLB roster — at which point he’d have been another three years away (at least) from reaching arbitration eligibility. It could very well have taken him as long, if not longer, to reach the point where he could’ve locked in a guaranteed $7MM by playing in Major League Baseball — if he ever reached that level of earnings at all.

1:55pm: Stewart will receive more than $4MM under the deal, MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (Twitter link).

8:37am: Amateur pitching prospect Carter Stewart will continue to take an unusual career path, foregoing the upcoming amateur draft in favor of a stint with Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the agreement (Twitter links).

Though precise terms aren’t yet known, Rosenthal indicates that Stewart will be subject to Nippon Professional Baseball’s typical ten-year player-control system. Whether there are any further understandings or agreements regarding his future aren’t known. Stewart was “believed to be seeking” a $7MM guarantee, per Rosenthal. It’s not yet known whether he’ll receive that level of promise from Fukuoka, and in what form (bonus vs. salary) it’ll be paid.

Stewart is widely considered one of the most talented amateur pitchers in the world. Indeed, the Braves selected him out of high school with the eighth overall pick in the 2018 draft. The sides failed to agree to a contract after the club got a closer look at the medicals. A ligament issue in Stewart’s wrist led the club to lower its offer.

Rather than take the reduced bonus, Stewart enrolled at Eastern Florida State College. By going to a junior college, he preserved the ability to reenter the draft this year. Meanwhile, Stewart and his representatives initiated a grievance regarding the negotiations with the Braves. It was ultimately resolved in the team’s favor. The Braves hold a compensatory pick in this year’s draft.

In the intervening year since the ’18 draft, pundits have soured a bit on Stewart. He delivered excellent results and is still said to have shown top-shelf stuff at times, but also dealt with some inconsistency and saw a few other questions crop up. As of today, Stewart was rated 38th overall by Baseball America and landed just inside the top sixty players on the Fangraphs and MLB.com draft prospect lists.

Heading to Japan hardly means that Stewart won’t have a chance at the majors. But it does make for quite a different — and frankly fascinating — career course. It seems reasonable to presume that Stewart will be counted against the Hawks’ limit of four foreign players — if and when he’s added to the active roster. He’d be eligible to be posted back to MLB teams (with a transfer fee capped at $20MM) at any time, at the election of his new team.

There’s some risk in heading abroad, but it’s hard to ignore the appeal. Stewart will have a heck of a cultural experience. He will presumably enjoy much greater earnings out of the gates, though bonus and salary details aren’t yet known. Neither is it clear whether Stewart is expected to jump right into the team’s NPB rotation out of the gates, but it stands to reason that he’ll be competing in consequential games in front of thousands of passionate fans much sooner in Japan than he would have in North America.

The international transactional landscape continues to evolve in fascinating ways. Shohei Ohtani pushed for an early move to the majors after previously dabbling with a decision to come straight over as an amateur player. Last fall, the Diamondbacks nabbed a promising Japanese amateur player in unusual fashion. We have continued to see North American players head to Japan and other Asian nations in efforts to earn better money and revive their careers, though roster limitations effectively cap the number that can do so. Now, there’s a potential new talent pipeline heading west across the Pacific.

Injury Updates: Sabathia, Gregorius, Peralta, Smith

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2019 at 7:53pm CDT

The latest on some injured list situations from around baseball…

C.C. Sabathia is lined up to start for the Yankees on Sunday, manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter link) and other reporters. Sabathia was placed on the IL on May 23 due to right knee inflammation, and it ended up being both a short absence, and a fairly standard one for a veteran player with a long history of knee surgeries. Boone noted that Sabathia threw a bullpen session today, so all systems seem to be a go for the left-hander’s 547th career start. Sabathia has a 3.48 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over 41 1/3 innings for New York this season.
Boone also gave Hoch and other media members an update on Didi Gregorius, saying that the shortstop could return during the Yankees’ upcoming road trip to Toronto and Cleveland from June 4th-9th. Gregorius has yet to play a full nine innings at shortstop in consecutive games, which Boone noted is an important step in his Tommy John rehab process.
Diamondbacks outfielder David Peralta hit the IL on May 24 with shoulder inflammation, and manager Torey Lovullo implied to reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that Peralta is likely to miss more than the minimum 10 days. While an early return isn’t totally out of the question, Lovullo said Peralta has yet to begin baseball activities. The struggling D’Backs are certainly hoping Peralta is able to get back to action as soon as possible, given his .309/.357/.524 slash line through 207 PA this season.
Kevan Smith is also looking at a lengthier stay on the injured list, as the Angels catcher had some concussion symptoms return this week, Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times tweets. Smith was placed on the seven-day concussion IL on May 22 and had begun to take part in baseball activities, though he had been shut down for the last few days. DiGiovanna notes that Smith will be sidelined at least until June 4, when the Angels begin an eight-game homestand, though that timeline is far from certain given the unpredictable nature of concussions.

The Importance Of Scott Kingery

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 7:18pm CDT

In a spirited attempt to repair their position player group and snap a seven-year playoff drought, the Phillies added four new regulars to their lineup during the offseason. The big-ticket acquisitions of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura left the club with just four holdovers. Of the returning quartet, only first baseman Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have produced in 2019. On the other hand, this has been a horrid year for third baseman Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who didn’t exactly comprise a confidence-inspiring pair entering the campaign.

The 26-year-old Franco broke into the league in earnest in 2015, when he looked like a long-term core piece in the making during an 80-game, 335-plate appearance debut. Since then, though, success has been hard to come by for Franco. He turned in an 0-for-4 performance in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday, dropping his batting line to an inept .215/.281/.393 through 210 tries this year. Franco’s 63 wRC+ ranks as the majors’ eighth-worst mark among 167 qualifying hitters.

While 2019 has gone poorly for Franco, it has been even worse for Herrera. Not only has Herrera failed on the field, where he has hit .222/.268/.341 (67 wRC+) in 139 trips to the plate, but he’s amid a troubling situation off it. The league placed Herrera on administrative leave Tuesday after he was arrested Monday on a charge of simple assault relating to a domestic violence incident.

It’s too early to jump to conclusions on Herrera’s arrest at this point, but we can judge him on what he has done between the lines. The fact is the 27-year-old’s production has been a letdown since 2018. Before then, he was a quality player who earned a five-year, $30.5MM extension from the franchise in 2016.

The Phillies have given Franco and Herrera plenty of rope so far in their careers, but they’re looking less and less like answers at their respective positions. And Philadelphia is no longer a rebuilding team – it’s in first place in the NL East, which figures to be a multi-team dogfight through September – meaning it must consider making moves to improve at third and in center. Luckily for the club, it may have an in-house solution for one of those spots in utility player Scott Kingery.

The 25-year-old Kingery opened the season as a reserve, but he has taken on a prominent role rotating between the hot corner and center since he returned from a month-long stay on the injured list. Going back to his May 19 activation, Kingery has started nine of the Phillies’ 11 games. Now, if he proves capable of performing like a legit full-timer, he’d take some of the pressure off executives Matt Klentak and Andy MacPhail heading into the July 31 trade deadline.

Philadelphia believes in Kingery, evidenced by the six-year, $24MM guarantee it gave him in March 2018. Kingery was a top 100 prospect at that point, but he had never even taken a major league at-bat. That inexperience was on display during a rough rookie season for Kingery, who struggled to a .226/.267/.338 line (62 wRC+) with 126 strikeouts against 24 walks in 484 tries.

So far, the sophomore version of Kingery is trumping his Year 1 numbers through 72 PA. However, his .328/.375/.567 slash (148 wRC+) looks as if it’s built on a house of cards. Having drawn a meager three walks against 20 strikeouts, Kingery is getting by on a sure-to-plummet .432 batting average on balls in play and a power surge that also looks unlikely to last. With three homers, Kingery’s fly balls are leaving the yard at an 18.8 percent rate – a figure he only approached once in the minors (in 2017). As a Double-A player that season, Kingery recorded a .295 ISO. Coming into this year, that was the only time Kingery had even neared a .200 ISO, let alone blown by it. With that in mind, don’t bet on Kingery maintaining his current ISO (.239).

Although there are reasons for pessimism regarding Kingery’s hot start, that’s not to say he can’t be a valuable regular for the Phillies now or in the future. It would be a colossal boon for the club if it happened immediately, considering its remade offense has been closer to middle of the pack than great this season. That’s largely because of Franco, Herrera and corner outfielder Nick Williams, who have combined for minus-1.1 fWAR in 414 PA. The Phillies can’t count on those three – nor can they expect a breakthrough from unproven outfielder Roman Quinn, 26, or McCutchen to man his old stomping grounds in center consistently – leaving the onus on Kingery to assert himself in a full-time role. If Kingery falls on his face, the Phillies may have to deal with the burden of finding two new regulars leading up to the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Candidate: Trey Mancini

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2019 at 6:24pm CDT

As the Orioles begin what will be a lengthy rebuilding process, it’s fair to assume they’re open to offers on virtually any player on their roster with a modicum of Major League experience. This extends even to players like Trey Mancini, who under some circumstances would seem like a potential building block.

Mancini burst onto the scene with an impressive 2017 campaign before seeing his production drop to sub-replacement levels (-0.2 fWAR) in 2018. Aside from minor improvements to his swinging strike rate and walk rate, Mancini’s numbers dropped pretty much across the board in every major batting category from 2017 to 2018. This could be attributed to an old-fashioned sophomore slump as pitchers got a book on a young hitter, or perhaps Mancini suffered from the added mental stress of being caught up in the Orioles’ disastrous 115-loss season.

Perhaps the most telling number, however, was Mancini’s .285 BABIP in 2018. It marked a big decline from his .352 BABIP in 2017, which had a particularly deleterious effect on a player who had such extreme trouble keeping the ball off the ground. Mancini’s 52.9% ground-ball rate over the 2017-18 seasons was the sixth-highest total of any qualified player in that stretch, so when Mancini’s grounders weren’t sneaking through the infield with as much regularity, it had a significant impact on his production. This issue wasn’t a new one for Mancini, who also had high grounder rates throughout his minor league career.

Almost two months into the 2019 season, however, Mancini has done a much better job of driving the ball through the air. His grounder rate this season stands at only 38.3%, plus a .342 BABIP indicates that Mancini’s lesser number of ground balls are sneaking through the infield. Beyond just getting more good luck from the BABIP gods, Mancini’s 25.3% line drive rate, 36.4% fly ball rate, and 37.7% hard-hit ball rates are all career bests, and his .365 xwOBA is a virtual match for his .369 wOBA.

These underlying factors are a big reason why the 2019 version of Mancini is looking like a more sustainably productive player than the the 2017 model. The 27-year-old is hitting .295/.345/.529 with 10 home runs, a 128 wRC+ and 132 OPS + through 229 plate appearances. With this production looking up, Baltimore could decide now is the time to sell high on what could be its best position-player trade chip.

It’s worth noting, of course, that the Orioles are under no pressure to trade Mancini by July 31 — he isn’t eligible for arbitration until this coming offseason, meaning that he is under team control through the 2022 season. It also isn’t totally out of the question that the O’s hang onto Mancini altogether, though the club’s timeline for a return to contention doesn’t really fit Mancini’s age and skillset.

Over his two-plus seasons in the big leagues, Mancini has played 793 innings as a first baseman and 1808 2/3 innings as a corner outfielder, despite being drafted as a first baseman out of Notre Dame in 2013 and never seeing any outfield action over his four minor league seasons. With Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo holding down the first base/DH spots, the Orioles deployed Mancini in the outfield as a way of getting his bat into the lineup, with predictably subpar defensive results.

Mancini has a -12.9 UZR/150 and minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved as an outfielder, making him an ill fit at the position now, let alone in the future. He has been seeing more time at first base recently with Davis on the IL, and there’s really no reason for Baltimore to not continue playing Mancini at his original position going forward; he wouldn’t be the first player to take his hitting to another level after being relieved from a troublesome defensive situation.

While Orioles GM Mike Elias surely hopes he can have the club on track in shorter order, the fact remains that the O’s might still not be full-fledged contenders by the 2023 season, given the extensive nature of the team’s rebuild. At that point, Mancini will be in his age-31 season and in all likelihood a full-time first baseman/DH, making it a better bet that he will be starting into a decline phase just as the Orioles as a whole plan to be rising up.

Waiting for the winter to explore Mancini trades would theoretically expand Baltimore’s market for the young slugger, since dealing him now would limit the O’s to only contending teams….or would it? Mancini’s extra years of control make him an interesting option for teams who might be riding the fence between being a pure buyer or a pure seller. Mancini could fit on a team like the White Sox, who aren’t contenders this season but surely have an eye towards taking a step forward in 2020 (especially now that Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Lucas Giolito are all breaking out).

Holding off on a Mancini deal also carries risk beyond just the normal concerns of a potential dropoff. As we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams are putting less and less value on defensively-limited players and first base/DH types, no matter how big a bat they might be swinging. Nicholas Castellanos (a free agent this winter) has far less team control than Mancini, but is almost exactly the same age and a much more established MLB hitter, yet the Tigers have had no luck shopping Castellanos for over a year.

Plus, once the offseason hits and the free agent market opens, teams with a first base or corner outfield vacancy might prefer to just sign a productive veteran at a relatively low price rather than give up prospects to Baltimore for Mancini. This could open the door to a more immediate trade, as the urgency of a pennant race might encourage teams to give up some solid minor league talent for a quality bat like Mancini, with his years of control as a significant bonus.

Looking at teams who could fit as trade partners for Mancini, I considered both contenders and non-contenders (who were planning to be competitive sooner rather than later) with both outfield/first base needs for 2019 and longer-term needs at first base going forward. More teams could certainly emerge as injuries, slumps, and other factors impact this summer’s deadline business, though a few clubs stand out as possible candidates at the moment.

Astros: Mancini would help them now, though Houston isn’t exactly hurting for bats, and the Astros have several interesting young names (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) waiting in the wings.

Red Sox: Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are pending free agents, and J.D. Martinez could join them if he chooses to opt out of the final three years and $62.5MM on his contract. Boston’s first base spot has been seen as a potential eventual landing spot for either Rafael Devers or Michael Chavis, though those two emerging stars may end up at third base and second base, and prospect Bobby Dalbec may be at least a year away. A case can be made for the Red Sox to pursue Mancini at the deadline, though with JDM, Moreland, and Pearce all still in the fold, Boston is more likely to wait until the offseason to address its first base/DH situation.

Nationals: On paper, Washington fits since Ryan Zimmerman’s $18MM club option isn’t likely to be picked up for 2020. In practice, all the bad blood between the Nationals and Orioles stemming from the ongoing legal dispute over broadcast rights makes any sort of trade between the two Beltway rivals next to impossible.

White Sox: As mentioned earlier, Mancini could fit nicely into an emerging White Sox lineup. Yonder Alonso is unlikely to have his club option exercised, and Jose Abreu is slated for free agency at the moment (though the Sox certainly want to keep Abreu on the south side). If Abreu does stay, he and Mancini would provide a lot of pop from the first base/DH positions.

Mariners: Something of a similar case to the White Sox, as Seattle also aren’t contenders now, but their quest to “re-imagine” their roster wasn’t seen as a long-term endeavor. Edwin Encarnacion could himself be traded by the deadline, and if he does stay, the M’s are more likely to buy out his 2020 option for $5MM than exercise it for $20MM. The surprising Daniel Vogelbach has definitely slugged his way into Seattle’s 2020 plans, so he could join Mancini splitting time between first base and designated hitter. Jay Bruce is also likely to still be in the mix barring a trade, though Bruce’s presence wouldn’t stop GM Jerry Dipoto from picking up a player like Mancini.

Rangers: Between Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, and even top prospect Willie Calhoun, Texas already has multiple players who might be best suited for DH duty, and Ronald Guzman is still young and controllable at first base. Texas also doesn’t have a deep farm system, and might not be willing to meet Baltimore’s asking price for Mancini, or maybe even any team’s price tag on any notable midseason upgrade since the Rangers weren’t fully committing to contending this year. Nevertheless, the surprising Rangers are maybe an interesting outside-the-box candidate for Mancini since the team has stayed in the wild card race. Acquiring Mancini is both a go-for-it type of move, while also serving as a long-term piece. Mancini would also give Texas some much-needed right-handed lineup balance.

Brewers: Only two teams have received less bWAR from the first base position this season than Milwaukee, Jesus Aguilar’s breakout 2018 season has given way to some major struggles this year, while Eric Thames’ hot start has given way to an ice-cold May. It would be a bold move to see the Brewers move on entirely from Aguilar less than a year after his big season, though the club doesn’t have much margin for error in a tight NL Central race. Like Texas, the Brew Crew also doesn’t have a lot of minor league talent to spare in trades.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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