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Health Notes: Mize, Buxton, Astros, D-backs, M’s

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On Friday, one day after Casey Mize left his Double-A start early, the Tigers placed the prized right-hander on the minor league injured list with inflammation in his pitching shoulder. Any shoulder injury for a pitcher obviously isn’t an ideal outcome, but it seems Mize and the Tigers dodged a bullet in this instance. Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and one of the majors’ elite prospects, had been utterly dominant in the minors this season before going on the IL. Between the High-A and Double-A levels, the 22-year-old has logged 78 innings of 0.92 ERA pitching with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.

Now for some major league health updates…

  • Center fielder Byron Buxton exited the Twins’ game Friday after taking a pitch off the right wrist from Royals starter Brad Keller. Luckily for Buxton and the Twins, though, he avoided a serious injury, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. “Byron’s doing fine. Wrist contusion,” said manager Rocco Baldelli, who added it’s “pretty positive news.” The 25-year-old Buxton looks to be on track for a career season, having hit .266/.324/.527 (120 wRC+) with nine home runs, 10 steals and 2.2 fWAR in 227 plate appearances.
  • Speaking of center fielders in fine form, the Astros’ Jake Marisnick departed their game Friday with left knee discomfort, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. It’s unclear whether the issue will force the Astros to send yet another player to the IL. Marisnick, 28, has paired above-average offense with his usual excellent defense en route to 1.3 fWAR in 156 trips to the plate this year.
  • An MRI on Diamondbacks righty Jon Duplantier’s shoulder confirmed he’s dealing with inflammation, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com tweets. Like Mize, it seems Duplantier has avoided a catastrophic injury. The D-backs placed the 24-year-old on the IL on Wednesday, cutting off an encouraging start to his career. Duplantier has pitched to a 4.32 ERA/3.83 FIP with 8.64 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9 in 25 innings (eight appearances, three starts).
  • The Mariners reinstated shortstop J.P. Crawford from the IL on Friday and placed reliever Brandon Brennan on the IL with a strained right shoulder, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Crawford had been out since suffering a left ankle sprain May 28. The injury to Brennan continues what has been a shaky season for the 2018 Rule 5 pick from the Rockies. Brennan leads Mariners relievers in innings (34) and has posted 9.26 K/9 with a 55.4 percent groundball rate, but a high walk rate (5.29 BB/9) has helped produce a 5.56 ERA/4.39 FIP.

Nicholas Castellanos Not Expecting Extension Offer

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With the July 31 deadline around the corner and the Tigers out of contention, soon-to-be free-agent right fielder Nicholas Castellanos ranks among their clearest trade chips. Castellanos’ Tigers tenure may end in a matter of weeks, which he seems to realize.

The 27-year-old Castellanos was candid Friday when speaking about his future with reporters (including Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic and Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Asked if he expects the Tigers to make an effort to extend him this season, Castellanos stated: “I don’t have a college education. But I can pick up the pieces and put a puzzle together. I’m not saying that this is 100% what it’s going to be, but if I’m a gambling man, I don’t see (the Tigers) offering me an extension at this point in time.”

Castellanos, a career-long Tiger who joined the franchise as the 44th pick in the 2010 draft, has surpassed the fading Miguel Cabrera as the team’s biggest offensive threat in recent years. Dating back to his 2016 breakout, Castellanos has slashed .282/.333/.489 (118 wRC+) with 74 home runs in 2,068 plate appearances. But Castellanos hasn’t matched his above-average offense with appealing defense, which is surely a key reason why rebuilding Detroit isn’t interested in keeping him around for the long haul. Castellanos’ defensive limitations will also prove deleterious on the trade market, where the Tigers may not get much for him, and when he hits free agency in the offseason.

Castellanos was a third baseman at the outset of his major league career, but after posting minus-64 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner from 2014-17, the Tigers moved him to the outfield. That experiment hasn’t gone well either, as Castellanos has added another minus-30 DRS in fewer than 2,000 innings of action. In fairness to Castellanos, his 2019 defensive numbers – while still not in the plus category – far outweigh last year’s brutal output.

Eventually, Castellanos may be a candidate to shift to first base. He rejected a move there late in 2018 when the Tigers requested it, as Woodbery notes, but would have been willing to make the switch had they tried to extend him.

“I told them, if you offer me an extension and show me that I’m a piece of the future, I’ll play first,” he said. “I’ll even throw bullpens for you. But give me that security.”

It’s clear Castellanos isn’t going to receive the “security” he’s seeking from the Tigers. His run in Detroit figures to conclude this summer as a result.

Tigers To Place Grayson Greiner On IL, Select Bobby Wilson

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The Tigers have placed catcher Grayson Greiner on the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain, the team announced. To replace Greiner, the club will select catcher Bobby Wilson from Triple-A Toledo. Wilson will take the 40-man roster spot of injured right-hander Tyson Ross, whom the Tigers are transferring to the 60-day IL. In other moves, the Tigers optioned lefty Ryan Carpenter to Toledo and will recall Triple-A lefty Gregory Soto.

The 26-year-old Greiner has gotten off to a dismal start at the plate in his first season as the Tigers’ starting catcher. He owns a .162/.231/.279 line (35 wRC+) with five home runs and 57 strikeouts against 13 walks over 169 PA. Behind the plate, Greiner has thrown out a solid 29 percent of would-be base stealers while earning roughly neutral grades as a blocker and framer.

Wilson, 36, will see his first action in Detroit since 2016, when he totaled 13 at-bats with the club. He spent last season in Minnesota, which had been the latest stop in a nomadic major league career, and then joined the Tigers prior to the current campaign. Wilson has hit an unimpressive .208/.264/.313 (56 wRC+) in exactly 1,000 major league PA, though he’s known as a quality defender.

The demotion of Carpenter is notable considering he’s tied for fourth on the Tigers in starts this season. A few of those performances have been disastrous, though, evidenced by the 28-year-old Carpenter’s 8.82 ERA/7.04 FIP in 32 2/3 innings. He toed the rubber for the seventh time of the year Friday and had another night to forget. The Indians roughed Carpenter up for eight runs (six earned) on eight hits and four walks in just three innings, leading the Tigers to demote him to the minors.

Mets Designate Hector Santiago

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The Mets have designated left-hander Hector Santiago for assignment, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.

A former starter for the White Sox, Angels and Twins, the 31-year-old Santiago joined the Mets on a minor league deal over the winter. Santiago didn’t crack the Mets’ roster at first, instead opening the year at the Triple-A level. He logged a 3.35 ERA/4.94 FIP with 7.95 K/9 and 4.81 BB/9 in 43 innings as a member of New York’s top affiliate before the club summoned him to the majors in late May.

While Santiago has worked as a starter in the minors this season, he functioned exclusively as a reliever with the Mets before they cut him from their 40-man. In eight innings, Santiago allowed six earned runs on 10 hits and five walks (against six strikeouts). Santiago could end up heading back to Syracuse next, though he’ll be able to reject an outright assignment to the minors if he wants.

Rockies Release Jorge De La Rosa

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The Rockies have released veteran left-hander Jorge De La Rosa, Thomas Harding of MLB.com relays (Andersen Pickard of MLB Daily Dish first reported the news). De La Rosa had been with the club since it signed him to a minor league pact April 5, his 38th birthday, though an oblique injury prevented him from taking the mound.

This unceremoniously ends De La Rosa’s second go-around as a member of the Colorado organization, with which he has spent the majority of his career. The Rockies first acquired De La Rosa from the Royals in a 2008 trade, and he went on to become one of the most successful starters in franchise history. From 2008-16, an 1,141 1/3-inning span, De La Rosa overcame hitter-friendly Coors Field to post a 4.35 ERA/4.24 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 3.79 BB/9 and a 48.1 percent groundball rate.

After his first Rockies stint ended, De La Rosa joined the Diamondbacks in 2017, lasting one-plus season in Arizona’s bullpen before the team released him last August. De La Rosa quickly caught on with the Cubs and pitched well in relief with them, though his performance didn’t persuade Chicago or any other team to give him a guaranteed deal last offseason. Between the D-backs and Cubs over the previous two years, he combined for a 3.77 ERA/4.47 FIP with typical strikeout, walk and groundball numbers (7.71 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 48.2 GB%).

The Yankees’ Rotation Looks Like A Problem

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Although the Yankees haven’t gotten an inning from injured ace Luis Severino this year, their rotation has done a decent job weathering his absence to this point. As of this writing, the Yankees’ starting staff ranks 10th in the majors in K/BB ratio, 12th in ERA and 13th in fWAR, and has helped the injury-laden club to a 41-26 start and a half-game lead in the American League East. While most of the unit’s numbers are passable in the aggregate, it’s just 19th in the game in FIP and has begun faltering of late.

Without Severino, who’s out for at least another month because of a lat strain, left-hander James Paxton stands out as the Yankees’ No. 1 starter. The former Mariner got off to a white-hot start this year before going to the injured list May 5 with a left knee issue. Paxton hasn’t been good since then, having allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits and seven walks (with 12 strikeouts) in 11 1/3 innings, though he still boasts strong numbers on the season. The 30-year-old’s not worth worrying about from the Yankees’ perspective if he’s healthy, but as someone who has never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in a season, it’s anyone’s guess whether Paxton will hold up into the fall.

Like Paxton, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka is someone whose rotation spot is etched in stone. But Tanaka has also declined of late, in part because his signature splitter hasn’t been up to par in 2019. That said, considering Tanaka owns a 3.58 ERA/4.01 FIP in 83 innings this year, his presence is hardly a detriment to New York’s rotation.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, solutions are harder to find after Paxton and Tanaka. Domingo German, who stepped into the Yankees’ rotation to replace Severino, looked like a breakout star through mid-May. The 26-year-old has come crashing down since then, though, and has been on the IL since June 9 with a left hip flexor strain. German has logged an ugly 5.74 ERA/5.25 FIP over his most recent five starts, despite his 11.14 K/9 against 1.69 BB/9 during that 26 2/3-inning span. Beyond that, it’s worth noting German is already nearing his innings total from all of 2018, having tossed 70 (24 fewer than last year), and has never reached 125 in a professional season.

Worsening the Yankees’ situation, aging lefties J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia have each fallen short of expectations this season. Happ, whom the Yankees re-signed to a two-year, $34MM contract over the winter, has managed a 4.66 ERA/5.34 FIP through 75 1/3 frames. According to Baseball Savant, the 36-year-old Happ’s hard-hit rate against has risen by almost 8 percent since last season, while his strikeout rate has fallen by nearly 7 percent.

The soon-to-retire Sabathia, meanwhile, isn’t having the final season he or the Yankees envisioned. The potential Hall of Famer has pitched to a playable 4.42 ERA, yet his 5.98 FIP is unsightly, and he has only completed six innings on two occasions. Moreover, Sabathia’s groundball rate is 6.5 percent below his career mark, which has helped lead to a massive increase in home runs against. Sabathia yielded homers on 11.7 percent of fly balls in 2018, but the number has climbed to 20.8 this season. While Sabathia reinvented himself over the previous couple seasons as a soft-contact specialist, hitters have increased their hard-hit rate against him by better than 5 percent since a year ago.

Barring outside acquisitions, it appears the suddenly slumping Yankees are stuck with their current alignment of starters for the time being. Along with Severino and German, the Yankees are missing Jordan Montgomery (out for the year because of Tommy John surgery) and Jonathan Loaisiga (strained shoulder). Those injuries have depleted the Yankees’ depth, which has left them to deploy reliever Chad Green as an opener to underwhelming results.

In positive news for the Yankees, Severino’s as good a reinforcement as you could possibly land during the season. On paper, he’d form a more-than-capable trio with Paxton and Tanaka. It would be risky to expect Severino to immediately return in top form, though, meaning it would behoove the club to add at least one new starter before the July 31 trade deadline. It seems fair to expect any of Madison Bumgarner, Matthew Boyd or Marcus Stroman to end up in a Yankees uniform by then. Acquiring one of those three could make the difference in the Yankees holding off the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East or having to overcome a one-game playoff for the third straight season. The way the Yankees’ current starters are trending, it’s going to be difficult to keep their rivals at bay even as injured stars come back on the offensive side.

Report: Padres Would Need “Overwhelming Offer” To Trade Kirby Yates

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The Padres may be readying to listen on most of their position players, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be anxious to move their most appealing pitching assets. Indeed, the San Diego organization would require “an overwhelming offer” in order to part with emergent relief ace Kirby Yates, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.

It’s hardly surprising to hear this stance emerge at this stage of the proceedings. The Friars are still hanging in the Wild Card picture, for one thing. Even if it has mostly resolved to deal, there’s little reason for the organization to enter a period of negotiation by hanging an OBO on one of its best trade pieces.

The Padres’ leverage here is aided by the fact that Yates isn’t an asset that must be cashed in just yet. He’s earning only $3,062,000 this year and has another season of arb control remaining. Even if the Padres decide to move him, it doesn’t have to happen in the next six weeks.

San Diego GM A.J. Preller has dealt with a situation like this in the past, with interesting results. The Friars held onto Brad Hand at the 2017 deadline, when he was among the top trade candidates, then locked him into a high-value extension. The club ultimately spun Hand off via trade in the ensuing summer. The situation isn’t quite on all fours with this one. Hand was a season further from free agency than Yates will be this winter; the Pads are also closer to dedicated contention than they were at that time. Regardless, the takeaway is that there are options here beyond a summer trade.

Yates has been every bit as impressive as Hand from an on-field perspective. Much like his former teammate, Yates took some time to find his way. But he has not stopped improving since landing in San Diego. The 32-year-old currently owns an absurd 0.96 ERA with 15.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 28 innings. Yates has yet to allow a home run this season.

At some point, someone will put the ball over the fence against Yates. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression coming. On the other hand, Statcast actually feels he has been a bit unfortunate to post a .216 wOBA, crediting him with a ridiculous .210 xwOBA based upon the quality (or lack thereof) of contact against him.

With a cheap salary and remaining arb control, Yates would be a monster trade chip for the Padres. It’s hard to imagine that Preller won’t at least see what he can get. And he’ll surely be realistic about the team’s chances of even making a spirited Wild Card run. At the same time, the organization has already proven it’ll push some chips toward the present with major free agent signings and the Opening Day promotion of Fernando Tatis. It’s possible to imagine a number of different plausible outcomes when it comes to Yates and the Padres.

Mets To Sign First-Round Pick Brett Baty

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JUNE 14: The deal will be announced tomorrow, Healey tweets. Baty receives $3.9MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), thus leaving the Mets some added room to work with.

JUNE 11: Mets first-round pick Brett Baty will take a physical and sign a deal with the club this weekend, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Financial details aren’t known yet, but as the 12th overall selection, Baty’s pick comes with a recommended slot value of $4,366,400.

The 19-year-old Baty is a high school third baseman from Texas who entered the draft as a consensus top 20 prospect. FanGraphs was highest on the now-former University of Texas commit going into the draft, ranking him eighth. Baseball America had Baty at No. 15, while ESPN’s Keith Law and MLB.com placed him 17th.

Although there are concerns about Baty’s age and whether he’ll stick at third base, all of those outlets think a great deal of his power potential and general offensive upside. FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen compare Baty to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman, a first-round pick in 2018 who’s one of the majors’ best prospects.

The Overlooked Pirate

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Andrew McCutchen was the face of the franchise during his time with the Pirates, one of their best players ever, but it became obvious a couple years back they’d have to trade him. Entering 2018, McCutchen’s final year of team control, the low-budget Pirates knew they weren’t going to extend the outfielder. Consequently, Pittsburgh traded McCutchen to San Francisco for two prospects – right-hander Kyle Crick and outfielder Bryan Reynolds – as well as $500K in international bonus pool space. Crick debuted first with the Pirates and has been a quality piece of their bullpen, but Reynolds has been even an more impressive major leaguer thus far.

Reynolds was a 2016 second-round pick of the Giants who ranked among their top five prospects when they traded him for McCutchen. At the time, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said of Reynolds: “Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense. We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”

That sounds right up to now. Since the Pirates promoted Reynolds to their roster April 20, the 24-year-old has slashed a tremendous .354/.407/.563 (157 wRC+) with five home runs in 171 plate appearances. As a member of the Pirates’ outfield, he has accounted for three Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-0.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 335 innings divided between left and center. The package has been worth 1.7 fWAR, making Reynolds one of the most valuable first-year players in baseball. If not for Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., there would be far more NL Rookie of the Year buzz centering on Reynolds.

Many a rookie has fizzled after a blazing start, though, so it’s worth checking into the odds of Reynolds continuing to post above-average production going forward. The switch-hitting Reynolds was a .312/.373/.472 batter in 1,217 minor league plate appearances, which augurs well, though all but 57 of those attempts came in Double-A ball or lower. Reynolds always ran high batting averages on balls in play in the minors, but his .439 BABIP as a Pirate flat-out isn’t going to sustain itself. It ranks first in the league among those who have totaled at least 170 PA this year. Reynolds is on pace to accrue upward of 400 trips to the plate this season. Of hitters who amassed at least that many a year ago, no one put up a BABIP better than .375.

Going solely by BABIP, Reynolds’ production is going to fall. Reynolds also appears unlikely to keep up his .210 isolated power, considering it never rose above .188 during extended looks in the minors (and that occurred during a low-A stint in 2010). He’s also hitting the plurality of batted balls on the ground, which doesn’t bode well for power. That said, all hope isn’t lost for Reynolds. According to Statcast, Reynolds ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected slugging percentage (.439; 53rd percentile), weighted-on base average (.347; 62nd percentile), average exit velocity (90.1 mph; 69th percentile), sprint speed (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (47.4; 88th percentile) and expected batting average (.300; 92nd percentile).

So, while Reynolds’ .412 weighted on-base average ranks 14th in the league and puts him a few points above Nolan Arenado, he’s not that good. Reynolds’ xwOBA sits 55 points lower than his xwOBA, though it still places him a point or two above household names such as Alex Gordon, DJ LeMahieu and Jose Altuve. Like LeMahieu, Reynolds walks at a slightly below-average clip (7.5 percent). Meanwhile, Reynolds’ strikeout percentage (22.2) is a tad above average. Combining the two numbers makes Reynolds an average performer in terms of K/BB ratio. And the fact that Reynolds hasn’t yet shown any vulnerability from either side of the plate only makes him a more appealing offensive piece.

Reynolds’ bottom-line production through almost two months of his major league career paint him as a budding star. A peek under the hood suggests he’s not there yet, but Reynolds does look like a legitimate building block for the Pirates. He and Crick are amounting to a nice return for one year of control over McCutchen, whom the Pirates weren’t going to bring back. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team that doesn’t appear to have made out that well in sending Gerrit Cole, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow away in other key trades dating back to January 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Place Heath Hembree On IL

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The Red Sox announced this evening that reliever Heath Hembree is going on the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with a “right elbow extensor strain.”

It had been hoped that the injury wouldn’t force an IL stint, but evidently Hembree is going to need a bit of time on ice to let things heal up. Lefty Josh Taylor will take the open roster spot but won’t be able to step into Hembree’s important setup role.

Hembree has been a key stabilizing force in a Boston bullpen that has had some difficulties at times. He’s through 28 2/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball thus far on the year.

While his peripherals don’t quite support those results, Hembree is a solid performer by most measures. He owns 11.0 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. Hembree’s swinging-strike rate sits at 14+% for the third-straight season. So long as he can keep the ball in the yard — the extreme flyball pitcher is allowing 1.26 per nine on a 9.5% HR/FB rate to this point — he ought to be a quality piece.

If Hembree just needs a brief respite, this doesn’t figure to pose much of a problem. The Red Sox can hope to have him back in short order, well in advance of what could be a tricky deadline period. But if his recovery drags, it’ll only add to the bullpen questions — and broader strategic dilemma — that the organization faces this summer.

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