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Health Notes: Trout, Jeffress, Murphy, Tuivailala, Volquez

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It doesn’t seem as if the Angels will end up needing to place superstar Mike Trout on the injured list. The club indicated in an announcement today that he’s recovering well after tweaking his groin muscle recently, with an MRI showing that the swelling is subsiding and Trout “report[ing] daily improvement.” Another medical review is scheduled for Sunday. It’s not known whether Trout could be activated thereafter, but a decision will need to be made sooner than later. While the club obviously prefers not to go without him any longer than necessary, the worst outcome would be for Trout to make things worse by rushing back.

More on the injury front from around the game:

  • Late-inning man Jeremy Jeffress is expected to return to the Brewers after one more rehab outing, skipper Craig Counsell tells reporters including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter link). Jeffress has been moving at about the pace that was hoped when it was announced he’d open the year on the injured list with a somewhat balky shoulder. He has been knocked around a bit on his rehab assignment, though that’s hardly the focus. Jeffress says he’s gaining velocity and feeling stronger as he goes. He’ll soon get the chance to try to replicate his magnificent 2018 season.
  • Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy will not require surgery to repair his fractured left index finger, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports on Twitter. That seems generally promising, if only because it’s always preferable to avoid the risks of a procedure. It’s not clear exactly how long he’ll be sidelined; at last look, the club expected he’d be out of commission through at least the end of the month, but that seems like the bare minimum. Whatever the duration, it’ll be more than desirable for a team that currently sports the league’s worst offense.
  • While there’s still no precise timeline, a return to action is now in sight for Mariners reliever Sam Tuivailala. He’s still at least a month away from the majors but is nearing live BP sessions, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports via Twitter. The 26-year-old hurler, who is working back from a torn Achilles, appears to be a bit ahead of schedule as compared to expectations last fall. He still has a fair number of additional hurdles yet to clear, of course, but it’s generally promising for the increasingly interesting M’s.
  • The Rangers still lack clarity regarding the severity of the elbow injury to veteran starter Edinson Volquez. For now, the plan is to put him on the shelf for the next four to six weeks before bringing him in for imaging and a medical review, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram was among those to cover (Twitter link). It’s a bit of an unusual situation, but it seems the hurler preferred to wait; the team agreed since he’d be sidelined regardless and the results would be more reliable after swelling has gone down. Volquez has suggested he’ll retire if he has again blown out his ulnar collateral ligament. If that’s not necessary, he could presumably return to pitch this year in Texas. It seems we’ll all wait a while longer to learn the outcome.

Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions

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Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.

Details On Tony Watson’s Contract

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Giants reliever Tony Watson triggered many of the available escalators in his contract last year, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (Twitter link), allowing him to add $3MM in earnings to what had been a $3.5MM guaranteed salary for the 2019 season. In addition to his now-$6.5MM salary this year, the southpaw can also trigger quite a few incentives by continuing to rack up appearances.

Watson and his reps were forced to get creative when his market didn’t quite develop as hoped last winter. He ended up joining the San Francisco organization in late February. The contract softened the luxury-tax hit for the club with a lower-than-anticipated annual guarantee, but also came with upside for the player.

The deal promised Watson $9MM, a figure that covered two full seasons as well as a $2.5MM player option for the 2020 campaign. That option still protects his downside in the event of an injury or performance slide. Watson will surely hope his market value well outstrips it come this fall; in that case, he’ll instead take a $500K buyout.

On the incentive side, the contract was known to have included $2.5MM in games-finished bonuses. That was never particularly likely to come into play and indeed has not. As Adams explains, though, it also included provisions allowing for substantial earnings for being called upon to pitch.

Watson’s 66-frame 2018 showing allowed him to boost his 2019 salary to $6.5MM. He can add to that with incentive pay this year: $500K apiece upon reaching his 25th, 30th, 35th, 40th, 45th, and 50th games pitched. He’ll earn another $1MM if he can reach 55 games. There are similar numbers available for 2020, though it seems unlikely they’ll be brought into play.

Add it all up, and Watson’s 2019 incentive package maxes out at $4MM — meaning he could end the present season with $10.5MM in total compensation. And it’s all quite achievable so long as he stays healthy.

These contract details are obviously relevant for player and team, but they’re also notable from the perspective of potential trade suitors. There’ll be a fair bit of salary to account for if Watson is dealt this summer. It’s certainly not hard to imagine a scenario where Watson does indeed end up on the block this July. He’s a 2.66 ERA hurler through 523 2/3 MLB innings and hasn’t finished a complete season with an ERA north of 3.38 with the exception of his debut campaign.

Last year, Watson rung up more than a batter per inning via strikeout while walking less than two per nine. That enabled him to carry a shiny 2.59 ERA over 66 frames and represented a reversal of some worrying peripheral trends from the prior two seasons. In the early going in 2019, the 33-year-old has shown a velocity decline (over two ticks below his career average) and managed only a single strikeout in 4 2/3 outings. But he’s also generating swinging strikes at a whopping 19.3% rate. He also hasn’t handed out a walk and has permitted just one earned run.

Dellin Betances Slated To Receive MRI

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Rehabbing Yankees reliever Dellin Betances is not progressing on quite the timeline that might have been hoped. Manager Aaron Boone said today that a recent simulated game “didn’t go great,” as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch was among those to tweet. Betances is now heading back to New York to undergo an MRI on his shoulder.

Previously diagnosed with an impingement after experiencing a worrying spring velocity drop, Betances had been hoping to rest a bit and then ramp right back up. It seems now that the down time did not fully resolve the issues in the joint, which makes for no shortage of uncertainty for both player and team.

The Yankees have plenty of options to fill in for Betances and the resources to add more relievers if need be. But the club is already dealing with multiple injuries in other areas of the roster. At this stage of the season, at least, it can’t hope to find a reliever of Betances’s quality for anything approaching a reasonable price.

Things are even more concerning for Betances himself, as the big righty is playing out his final season of arbitration eligibility. High velocity and durability have been among his two biggest calling cards over a thus-far stellar career. Now, the 31-year-old will need to get healthy and regain the arm speed that has allowed him to post a 2.36 ERA with 14.6 K/9 over 381 total MLB innings.. If and when he manages that, there’ll still be some newfound uncertainty surrounding his health outlook.

Athletics Re-Sign Edwin Jackson

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FRIDAY: The A’s have announced the signing.

WEDNESDAY, 6:52pm: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the two sides have indeed reached an agreement on a deal.

6:44pm: The A’s are closing in on a minor league contract with veteran righty Edwin Jackson, reports Julian McWilliams of The Athletic (via Twitter). Jackson spent the bulk of the 2018 campaign with the Oakland organization and played a key role in their rotation down the stretch last season.

The 35-year-old Jackson stepped into the record books the day he suited up for the Athletics last season, as they were the 13th Major League team for which he’d appeared, tying him with fellow well-traveled righty Octavio Dotel. While the new agreement with Oakland won’t give him a chance at staking sole possession to that oddball record, Jackson should have an opportunity to return to the big leagues for what would be a 17th season.

Jackson did far more than turn himself into a semi-obscure trivia answer during his time with Oakland. Though he may have initially been viewed as a stopgap option for the A’s, he quickly cemented his place on the team’s roster and made himself into a vital part of the pitching staff. As the Athletics’ rotation was ravaged by injuries, Jackson made 17 starts and provided the A’s with 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball. Always a hard thrower, Jackson saw his velocity hold up even into his mid-30s as he averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball with 6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 36.4 percent ground-ball rate along the way.

The Oakland rotation currently consists of Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson, Frankie Montas and Aaron Brooks, but once the veteran Jackson is up to speed, he’ll emerge as a candidate to step into the back of the starting five. Other healthy options on the 40-man roster for the A’s include Daniel Mengden, Paul Blackburn and Tanner Anderson, while righties Jharel Cotton, Chris Bassitt and Daniel Gossett are on the mend on the big league disabled list. Top starter Sean Manaea underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2018 season, and although he was initially expected to miss most — if not all — of the 2019 season, there’s now some hope that he could be back around the All-Star break.

Allen Craig Joins Padres’ Front Office

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Former big league first baseman/outfielder Allen Craig has joined the Padres’ front office as an advisor to the baseball operations department, reports MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). The move officially brings Craig’s playing career to a close.

Though Craig, 34, hasn’t been in the Major Leagues since 2015 with the Red Sox, he’d yet to hang up the spikes. He was in camp with the Padres on a minor league deal this spring and appeared in six games, and he spent the past three seasons with the Triple-A affiliates for Boston (2016-17) and San Diego (2018).

Craig’s peak in the Majors was brief but impactful. His 2010 rookie season didn’t stand out in any way, but he burst onto the scene in 2011 when he raked at a .315/.362/.555 clip and belted 26 extra-base hits (11 homers, 15 doubles) in just 219 plate appearances. Craig played a key role in the Cardinals’ postseason exploits that season as well and was rewarded with a World Series ring. He’d follow up that strong year with a highly productive .307/.354/.522 slash and 22 homers over an even larger sample of work (514 plate appearances) in 2012.

That sample was enough for the Cards to invest in Craig on a five-year extension back in Spring Training 2013. He made the move look like a bargain with another strong year in 2013, hitting .315/.373/.457 and landing his first (and only) All-Star nod.

Following that three-year peak in which he batted a combined .312/.364/.500 (136 OPS+), however, Craig’s bat completely evaporated. After suffering a Lisfranc injury late in 2013, he slumped through a woeful first half of the season in 2014 and found himself traded to the Red Sox alongside Joe Kelly in the deal that sent John Lackey to St. Louis.

Hitting .215/.279/.315 at the time of the trade, Craig saw his troubles grow even more pronounced with his new team. In 195 plate appearances with Boston from 2014-15, he mustered just a .139/.236/.197 line before being designated for assignment and outrighted off the 40-man roster. He’d finish out his extension in Triple-A before landing with the Padres in the 2017-18 offseason.

It’s not fully clear what Craig has in mind for the next phase of his career. As an advisor to the baseball ops department he could follow the path recently taken by former Rays right-hander Brandon Gomes, who is now an assistant general manager with the Dodgers. That’s but one of many roads to explore in retirement, though; current Astros manager A.J. Hinch worked in the San Diego front office, for instance, providing another potential blueprint for Craig’s post-playing days.

Whatever “The Wrench” has in store for him, he’ll embark on that journey with a career .276/.333/.435 batting line, 59 home runs, 107 doubles, three triples, 239 runs scored and 296 runs knocked in over the course of 534 big league games. Brief as his career was, he earned about $32MM as a player, made an All-Star team and captured a World Series ring — a successful slate of accomplishments if there ever was one. Best wishes to him in the next chapter of his baseball career.

Yankees Place Gary Sanchez On Injured List

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The Yankees announced Friday that they’ve placed catcher Gary Sanchez on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 11, due to a left calf strain. Fellow backstop Kyle Higashioka has been recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in his place.

Sanchez becomes the 12th Yankees player to hit the injured list on the young season, joining key contributors Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton, among others. He’ll be out for at least the next nine days, given that the move is retroactive by one day, which is no small blow to the Yankees’ lineup given the excellent start Sanchez has enjoyed. To this point, he’s slashed .268/.333/.732 with six big flies through just 45 trips to the plate.

Higashioka, who’ll turn 29 during Sanchez’s absence, will team with Austin Romine to comprise the Yankees’ catching tandem while Sanchez is on the shelf. He’s seen sparse action at the MLB level with the Yankees over the past two seasons, hitting a combined .133/.212/.256 in 99 plate appearances.

Victor Caratini Out 4-6 Weeks With Hamate Fracture

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April 12: The Cubs have placed Caratini on the 10-day injured list due to what has indeed been revealed to be a fractured left hamate bone. Catcher Taylor Davis has been recalled from Triple-A Iowa in his place. Caratini will undergo surgery Monday and miss four to six weeks of action with the injury, per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago / 670 The Score (Twitter link).

April 11: Cubs catcher Victor Caratini will undergo a CT scan tomorrow on his left hand, the club told reports including Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter links) after tonight’s game. With x-rays revealing a possible hamate fracture, the fear is that Caratini could hit the shelf for a stretch.

Caratini evidently suffered the injury tin the midst of what turned out to be a productive plate appearance. But it may turn out to be his last until the month of June. Hamate breaks typically come with an absence of about a month or two.

Fortunately, it’s also quite a common injury for hitters that doesn’t generally result in any kind of long-term problems. But some believe that there’s a power depletion for some time upon a player’s return. And the Cubs will hardly be thrilled to go without Caratini for a reasonably lengthy stretch, even if there is good reason to think he’ll still return to full speed by mid-season.

Though he hasn’t received much action as the reserve to Willson Contreras, Caratini has been off to a strong start. Through 17 plate appearances on the year, he has 8 hits (four for extra bases) and 3 walks against just four strikeouts.

While the Cubs pursued at least one veteran backstop over the offseason, they ended up deciding to rely upon Contreras and Caratini. There’s not much in the way of established depth behind them, with Taylor Davis the only other option on the 40-man. Beyond Davis, Francisco Arcia is the only other backstop in the organization with MLB experience.

Orioles Sign Jesmuel Valentin To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles signed infielder Jesmuel Valentin to a minor league contract, per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com (Twitter link). The Orioles’ Double-A affiliate in Bowie announced shortly thereafter that Valentin has been added to its roster.

Valentin, 24, made his big league debut with the Phillies in 2018 but received just 89 plate appearances. In that time, the switch-hitter managed only a .177/.258/.304 batting line with a homer, five doubles and a triple. Valentin, the No. 51 overall pick in the 2012 draft (by the Dodgers), is the son of former big leaguer Jose Valentin and the nephew of Javier Valentin.

The younger Valentin landed with the Phillies by way of the 2014 swap that sent right-hander Roberto Hernandez from Philadelphia to Los Angeles. He’s a versatile defender, with experience at second base, shortstop, third base and a brief look in both outfield corners, but he’s never established himself as much of an offensive threat. He’s a career .260/.345/.379 hitter in parts of seven minor league seasons, including a .239/.322/.339 output in 381 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

2019 Amateur Draft Pool Allocations

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With less than two months until the 2019 amateur draft, analysis of this year’s class is hitting full stride. Baseball America just produced its ranking of 300 prospects; Fangraphs has updated its prospect board; ESPN.com’s Keith Law released rankings not long ago (Insider link).

[RELATED: 2019-20 International Bonus Pools]

As always, spending power is key. Jim Callis of MLB.com recently broke down all the key financial info for this year’s festivities. While the outcome of the still-pending free agencies of Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel could still shift things around, the situation is mostly set at this point. (Click to find out what selections teams would lose by signing one of those players before the draft and what picks their former teams could stand to gain.)

More than any team in the league, the Diamondbacks are in a power position in the draft. Though they won’t pick until the 16th slot, the club has accumulated a variety of lofty selections via compensation picks for A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin as well as the acquisition of a Competitive Balance pick in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Arizona has over $2MM more to work with than any other club in the Majors.

You can find the slot bonus allocation and pick basis (compensation, competitive balance, etc) for every single selection in the draft at the above BA link. We’ll just run through the total bonus pools for every team here:

  • Diamondbacks: $16,093,700
  • Orioles: $13,821,300
  • Royals: $13,108,000
  • Marlins: $13,045,000
  • White Sox: $11,565,500
  • Braves: $11,532,200
  • Rangers: $11,023,100
  • Padres: $10,758,900
  • Tigers: $10,402,500
  • Rays: $10,333,800
  • Pirates: $9,944,000
  • Twins: $9,905,800
  • Reds: $9,528,600
  • Giants: $8,714,500
  • Blue Jays: $8,463,300
  • Mets: $8,224,600
  • Dodgers: $8,069,100
  • Angels: $7,608,700
  • Mariners: $7,559,000
  • Yankees: $7,455,300
  • Rockies: $7,092,300
  • Cardinals: $6,903,500
  • Phillies: $6,475,800
  • Indians: $6,148,100
  • Nationals: $5,979,600
  • Cubs: $5,826,900
  • Athletics: $5,605,900
  • Astros: $5,355,100
  • Brewers: $5,148,200
  • Red Sox: $4,788,100

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