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Pirates To Recall Mitch Keller

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Mitch Keller will be recalled from Triple-A to start tomorrow’s game against the Braves, MLB.com’s Adam Berry tweets. The Pirates also announced that they’ve recalled Dovydas Neverauskas from Triple-A Indianapolis and optioned Alex McRae in his place, giving them a fresh arm in the bullpen.

Tomorrow will be the second big league start for Keller, long lauded as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects. The 23-year-old was promoted for his MLB debut against the Reds in late May and struggled through a shaky outing that saw him yield six runs in four innings. Since that time, he’s gone back to Indy and allowed two runs on four hits and five walks with 18 strikeouts in 11 innings of work — including 12 consecutive outs recorded via strikeout in his most recent outing.

Earlier this week, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington indicated that while Keller was an option to start Wednesday, the team would also look outside the organization. The Pirates, as Huntington explained, do not want to continually shuttle Keller back and forth between the Majors and Triple-A. Rather, the organizational preference is that when Keller comes back up, he simply remains at the MLB level. That’s far from a declaration that this is a permanent call to the big leagues for Keller, but it stands to reason that he’ll have the opportunity to prove that he is worthy of an extended look. Throwing well against a tough Braves lineup on the road in their hitter-friendly park tomorrow would be one such way to make an impression.

The Pirates’ rotation has significantly underperformed so far in 2019, with Chris Archer taking a notable step back and both Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams missing extended periods on the injured list. Keller is the type of high-upside arm who could provide a boost to a Pittsburgh club that still hopes to contend despite a recent slide in the standings. Huntington has previously spoken about a desire to upgrade the team’s bullpen, and earlier this morning, it was reported that the team could look to trade Corey Dickerson given the team’s glut of productive outfielders. Suffice it to say, there are plenty of moving parts in Pittsburgh, and the next several weeks will prove pivotal in determining the team’s direction at the trade deadline.

Diamondbacks, Brennan Malone Agree To Terms

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The Diamondbacks agreed to terms with No. 33 overall pick Brennan Malone, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (on Twitter). He’ll receive a full-slot bonus of $2,202,200.

Although he was selected 33rd overall, Malone was the third pick in a massive D-backs draft class that was buoyed by compensatory picks for the losses of Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock as well as their inability to sign their top 2018 pick, No. 25 overall selection Matt McLain. Malone is the first of the team’s high-profile picks to agree to terms.

A high school right-hander out of Florida, Malone had been committed to the University of North Carolina but will instead begin his professional career. He ranked 18th on Baseball America’s Top 500 list heading into the draft while also placing 20th at MLB.com, 21st at ESPN and 23rd at Fangraphs. Malone generally receives praise for a fastball that sits 93 to 96 mph but has reached 99 mph when he needs to, as well as a series of potentially average-or-better breaking pitches that is headlined by his slider. At 6’3″ and 203 pounds, he’s the type of athlete on which clubs can dream as they look down the line. Baseball America wrote that Malone “might have the best combination of current stuff and future projection of any prep pitcher in the 2019 draft class.”

Dodgers, First-Rounder Kody Hoese Agree To Terms

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The Dodgers have agreed to terms with first-rounder Kody Hoese, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (via Twitter). The now-former Tulane third baseman will receive the full slot value of $2,740,300 that accompanies the No. 25 overall selection.

Specific evaluations of Hoese had a bit of variance, but he was generally regarded as a Day One talent in this year’s draft. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs were most bullish on the 21-year-old, ranking him 16th among all draft prospects. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked him 25th, while the Baseball America team tabbed him 29th and ESPN’s Keith Law pegged him 32nd overall.

Scouting reports on Hoese generally agree that he possesses the potential for at least an average hit tool and above-average pop. There’s less certainty regarding his defense down the line, though Fangraphs and MLB.com both tout him as a potential average defender as well. Hoese posted an absurd .391/.486/.779 batting line with 23 home runs, 20 doubles and a triple in 286 plate appearances in his junior year, but his track record prior to the 2019 season was more marginal. He’s frequently tabbed as a late bloomer/breakout/pop-up prospect whose stock rose dramatically in his final season of college ball.

Danny Farquhar To Join Yankees’ Triple-A Affiliate

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Right-hander Danny Farquhar is set to join the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate this week after opening the season in extended Spring Training, tweets Lindsey Adler of The Athletic. He signed a minor league deal with the Yanks during the offseason.

It’s a most welcome and notable step forward for Farquhar, who a year ago this time was still recovering from a life-threatening medical issue. The now-32-year-old righty, then with the White Sox, collapsed in the dugout between innings of a relief appearance. Upon being rushed to a nearby hospital, it was revealed that a ruptured aneurysm had led to hemorrhaging in his brain. He underwent emergency surgery and hasn’t pitched in a professional game since that time.

Farquhar’s recovery has been incredible, and the righty now tells Adler that he feels his arm strength has returned. Whether he makes it back to a big league mound at some point will be determined by his performance moving forward, but the mere fact that Farquhar is able to pitch in a competitive setting again is an inspiring testament to his determination.

The Yankees’ bullpen has received strong performances from Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Ottavino this season, but the overall unit has been a bit weaker than many would’ve expected. Dellin Betances has yet to pitch in 2019, while Chad Green and Jonathan Holder have each taken significant steps backward.

Farquhar is likely still a ways from being any kind of consideration, but even if he’s unable to crack the New York ’pen, his work at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre could serve as an audition for other clubs. That’s largely secondary at this point, though. For the time being, it’ll merely be good to see Farquhar back on any mound — regardless of setting.

Hunter Renfroe Drawing Trade Interest

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As explored at MLBTR last week, the Padres have a well-known surplus of outfield options, and the mix could soon become even more crowded with Franchy Cordero (and, eventually, Travis Jankowski) on the mend. The Friars moved Alex Dickerson in a trade with the Giants this week, shedding one outfielder from their 40-man roster, but Dickerson hasn’t factored prominently into the crowded outfield picture anyhow. His departure does little to thin the field.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that a  more prominent player, Hunter Renfroe, has been “quite popular” with other clubs as the Padres and other teams begin to explore trade possibilities now that the draft is in the rear-view mirror.

Renfroe was an oft-speculated offseason trade candidate, as the outfield crunch facing the Padres isn’t exactly a new development. But the Padres held onto all of their outfielders this winter, as they were seemingly unable to find an offer to their liking. In the case of Renfroe, that should prove to have been a smart play given that the 27-year-old has elevated his stock through the first two-plus months of the 2019 campaign. Through his first 196 plate appearances, Renfroe is hitting .243/.296/.602 with 18 home runs, nine doubles and a triple.

The on-base issues that plagued Renfroe in prior seasons are still present; his 7.1 percent walk rate is a near-mirror image of last year’s 6.8 percent, and he’s actually seen his strikeout rate rise from 24.7 percent to 27 percent. Renfroe’s average exit velocity has increased, though, and he’s shown more power than ever before. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that he’ll sustain his current 32.1 percent homer-to-flyball ratio — that’s only been done three times in the past decade — but an increase from last year’s 20.1 percent rate seems quite reasonable.

Beyond that, Renfroe’s glovework has improved by virtually any metric available. He’s already topped last year’s total of five Defensive Runs Saved in fewer than half as many innings. Ultimate Zone Rating has never pegged him as a positive defender, but he’s at +4.2 in 2019. Statcast’s Outs Above Average (+2) gives him a positive grade for the first time in his career as well.

In Renfroe, teams likely see a flawed but talented slugger whose power and defensive skills may be on the rise. He’s controlled for another four seasons beyond the 2019 campaign, although he’ll be arbitration-eligible in each of those years by virtue of Super Two status. Renfroe looks likely to head into arbitration on the heels of a 30-homer season and with upwards of 90 career long balls in the bank, so the arbitration process will treat him nicely. But even though he’ll be well-compensated over the long haul, he’s still a couple of productive years from securing a truly significant salary.

That considerable amount of club control remaining will give the Padres some pause when it comes to trading Renfroe, but they’ve also been linked to controllable starting pitchers for quite some time now. Renfroe is the type of piece who could help them to acquire such an asset. Corner outfielders are easier to come by than quality starters, so to acquire multiple seasons of such an arm, the Padres may need to include some other parts. As noted in last week’s look at their logjam, the Padres aren’t short on internal replacement options for Renfroe, and several teams with starters for sale are notably thin in the outfield. The Tigers (Matthew Boyd), Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman), Indians (Trevor Bauer, if they move him) all face some uncertainty in the outfield.

The mere fact that Renfroe is drawing interest doesn’t mean he’s any kind of lock to be moved. The Padres could move a different outfielder or, as they showed this offseason, forgo any sort of move and find a creative means of keeping all their current assets through the end of the season. Other injuries around the roster could always arise and lessen any urgency to make a decision this summer. Renfroe is an increasingly attractive trade piece, though, and his name figures to be mentioned frequently over the next seven weeks as the deadline draws nearer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jake Odorizzi

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The Twins have enjoyed quite a few nice surprises in the course of their strong start to the year. The output of righty Jake Odorizzi is certainly among them. Don’t look now, but he’s actually now topping the ERA leaderboard among qualified starters. So … is Odorizzi headed for a free agent bonanza after the season?

There’s little doubt that Odorizzi is delivering great value on the $9.5MM he’s earning in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Through 70 1/3 innings, he owns a 1.92 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Odorizzi is tied for the league lead with nine wins, for those that value that statistic. That’s a hefty tally for a pitcher in this day and age, but it doesn’t mean he’s working deep into games. Odorizzi has gone past six innings just twice; on the positive side, he has only failed to last at least five frames on two occasions.

This continues a low-inning trend for Odorizzi. He took sixty starts in the 2017-18 seasons, but threw only 307 2/3 innings. That recent history is notable in other ways as well. Odorizzi compiled useful but unspectacular numbers in his most recent seasons, working to a 4.33 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.

The 2017-18 version of Odorizzi coughed up 1.5 homers per nine. He was and is a heavy flyball pitcher. Opposing hitters currently carry a 28.2% groundball rate and 20.2 degree launch angle, much as they did last year. While they’re putting the ball in the air, though, they haven’t found their home run stroke this year. Odorizzi has permitted just 0.51 HR/9 on a meager 4.9% HR/FB.

What to make of the changes? You certainly have to question the sustainability. Statcast says that Odorizzi has allowed a meager .234 wOBA, but calculates a .284 xwOBA — still good, but hardly as dominating as the results. We might expect a lower BABIP given his batted-ball profile, but .251 still seems light. If and when the home run suppression dissipates, Odorizzi could be left looking like much the same pitcher he has always been. Both xFIP (4.20) and SIERA (3.92) see him that way already.

That said, there does appear to be something more here than a nice, fortune-laden run of results. Odorizzi has bumped his swinging-strike rate to 12.8% by riding a rather notable velocity boost — all the way over 93 mph on both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs after sitting under 92 in the prior two seasons. He’s currently at personal-high levels with both heaters, which at a bare minimum suggests he’s in a good place physically and mechanically.

There’s nothing here to suggest that Odorizzi is suddenly a front-line starter. It’s quite likely he’ll come back to earth over the next several months. But there’s also some evidence that he’s in his best form since he established himself as a quality starter (and underappreciated part of a notable trade) with the Rays.

Odorizzi will turn 30 right at the start of the 2020 campaign. With a run of extensions gutting the 2019-20 free agent market, he’ll have a chance to position himself as one of the better available starters. When MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes last ranked the upcoming free agents nearly six weeks ago, he listed Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler in the top five and noted a group of other useful but clearly non-elite starters in the honorable mention category: Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Cole Hamels. Odorizzi has outperformed them all since. We’ll see how it all looks when the season is over, but he’s an increasingly notable member of the upcoming class of free agents.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Looking At “Controllable Starters”

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As they begin to consider their possible approaches to the trade deadline, the Rangers are “evaluating controllable starters,” according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The organization also has some rather immediate concerns in the pitching staff with little in the way of obvious solutions, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.

Despite a rather surprising 35-30 start to the year, the Rangers have little but questions in their rotation behind Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. Both of those hurlers could ultimately end up on the block come late July if the team can’t keep pace, which still seems a distinct possibility.

For now, the front office is preparing for both buy and sell possibilities, according to Morosi. That largely states the obvious. It’s also imaginable that the Texas organization will ultimately largely hold pat, or perhaps engage in only a limited buy-side approach. While they canvass the market for possibilities, the Rangers will surely continue to evaluate their roster to see how much staying power it may have.

It’s all but unimaginable that the Rangers will ultimately adopt any sort of extreme approach to the deadline. There really isn’t much hope of chasing down the Astros in the division. While a Wild Card would be quite appealing, particularly with a new park slated to be opened, the Rangers won’t give up too much future value for immediate improvements.

Given all that, the “controllable starters” concept makes some sense on paper. It’s also true that most every other contender will have interest in the same types of pitchers, so there’ll be ample competition. But the Rangers could look for opportunities not only to improve now, but also to get a jump on preparing for 2020 and beyond. GM Jon Daniels has already begun thinking about how the roster can be improved in the coming offseason.

Typically, we thinking of younger, arbitration-eligible pitchers with the term “controllable.” The Rangers may or may not have much success fishing in those waters. It’ll be interesting to see if they also look into some older, more expensive hurlers that won’t come with big prospect price tags. Mike Leake of the Mariners and the Giants’ Jeff Samardzija are among the hypothetical possibilities in this general bucket.

Report: Pirates’ “Preference” Is To Trade Corey Dickerson

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The Pirates are interested in finding a trade partner to take outfielder Corey Dickerson, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Dickerson, 30, is earning $8.5MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility.

As we discussed recently upon Dickerson’s activation, the Pirates are facing obvious roster pressures in several areas. The club is currently carrying only three starters, allowing it to pad its relief corps and accommodate an extra position player, but that’s a temporary measure.

Dickerson was just brought back from the injured list, so he’s only six games into his season. In the interim, the club lost another left-handed-hitting corner piece in Lonnie Chisenhall. But it also welcomed back Gregory Polanco, struck paydirt on a low-cost deal with switch-hitting veteran Melky Cabrera, and saw youngster Bryan Reynolds (also a switch-hitter) burst onto the scene.

Cabrera is said to be drawing interest from “multiple contenders,” per Rosenthal. He is now slashing a cool .335/.375/.462 through 185 plate appearances. He’s not a good defender and won’t sustain a .370 BABIP, but certainly seems a worthwhile target as a bench bat. Cabrera’s low-cost, low-commitment contract situation ($1.15MM salary) is surely of appeal as well.

Rosenthal says that the Bucs “want to take another stab at contention before moving Cabrera and possibly others.” That makes sense, as the club isn’t yet buried in the division with more than six weeks to go until the trade deadline. But it’s hard to square that with the idea that the Pittsburgh org prefers to ship out Dickerson, who is a younger player with a better recent track record than Cabrera. Last year, Dickerson posted a 115 wRC+ and graded as a high end defender.

All in all, it’s a bit of an odd situation for the Pirates, who scrambled for outfielders and now find themselves in dire need of pitching. There isn’t much reason to think that a contender will part with a worthwhile, immediate rotation (or even relief) piece for one of these outfielders.

Cabrera may be the more cost-efficient option for the Bucs, but they will surely be selling low on Dickerson unless he goes on a tear over the next few weeks — in which case it’d be all the harder to move him unless the team is itself out of the race. Putting Polanco on the block might create some opportunities for meaningfully addressing the pitching staff, but he has had some ups and downs and that’d be a much more consequential decision.

The Dodgers Bullpen Probably Looks Worse Than It Is

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“It’s not that far off,” said Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly last night after his latest rough outing. “It probably looks worse than what it really is.”

Kelly was referring to his own situation when he chatted with reporters (including Pedro Moura of The Athletic, Twitter link). But he probably could have spoken in similar terms of the Dodgers bullpen as a whole.

The results haven’t been great; I won’t argue with you there. But the Dodgers actually sit in the middle of the pack as a unit by measure of both ERA and fielding independent pitching. There have been blown saves, but not a dramatic number in comparison to some other clubs.

In many respects, it’s not even worth thinking too hard about how this relief unit looks right now. The Dodgers are blitzing an otherwise mediocre division. At 45-21, the team is easily the class of the entire National League to this point. The relief corps hasn’t been bad enough to jeopardize a seemingly inevitable march to a division crown.

President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman certainly isn’t blind to the issues that do exist, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register recently covered. But he’s also focused primarily on the end goal: “It’s about feeling like we’ve got four to five ’pen arms in October that we trust and can help us,” says Friedman. “That’s what you need.”

So, can the Dodgers get to that desired handful of trustworthy hurlers? (And maybe settle upon two or three nice complimentary specialists to fill out a postseason roster?) Beyond acknowledging the potential for outside additions, Friedman says he still believes in the players currently populating the major-league roster. He also cites “other guys that are knocking on the door for an audition at some point.”

Kenley Jansen remains the rock. He’s not what he was, but it’d be foolish to say he’s washed up when he’s carrying 12.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. Pedro Baez has his warts but keeps getting results; he’s through 28 1/3 innings this year with a 3.18 ERA. The numbers aren’t as promising this year as last for Dylan Floro, as he hasn’t continued to suppress home runs, but he’s still managing a 3.13 ERA in 23 frames.

That trio constitutes something of a core, but it’s not the most intimidating of late-inning bunches. And the rest of the arms come with yet more questions. Yimi Garcia and Scott Alexander are among the team’s most-used other hurlers. The former has been torched by the long ball and may be at risk if he can’t find a groove. The latter is exhibiting declining swinging-strike and groundball numbers, but remains at least an interesting change-of-pace arm.

Alexander is the sort of hurler that Friedman seems to be thinking of when he refers to having “enough diversified looks” in the current unit. But what is it that gives the veteran baseball exec confidence that it’s “more about augmenting than tearing down” when it comes to structuring his bullpen?

The sheer volume of possibilities is part of what inspires confidence. It starts with the current or future excess rotation pieces. Ross Stripling has seen a bit of a velo fall-off this year, and has been better in the rotation than the pen, but is an excellent swingman to have around. Lefty Julio Urias has boosted his velocity and swinging-strike rates are up in a relief role. (His future remains clouded by an ongoing domestic violence investigation, though he won’t face prosecution unless he fails to meet the conditions set by authorities.) Veteran Kenta Maeda has been a flexible piece for the Dodgers in years past and will be useful in some capacity come October.

There are multiple swing-and-miss guys amassed at Triple-A, including 40-man members JT Chargois (30 strikeouts in 24 innings) and Josh Sborz (34 strikeouts in 26 innings) as well as experienced former big leaguers Kevin Quackenbush (43 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and Justin Grimm (41 strikeouts in 26 innings). There are a host of other plausible arms bouncing around in the upper reaches of the Dodgers farm. In addition to several hurlers with 40-man spots who’ve already had some prior MLB opportunities, the Dodgers have some untested prospects nearing readiness. Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, and Dustin May are among them.

So did we leave anyone out? Oh, right, Kelly …

The Dodgers clearly targeted him over the offseason, drawn to his big velocity and promising peripherals. Kelly has boosted his strikeout rate to 11 per nine and run up his groundball rate to 55.4%, but he is coughing up 1.69 HR/9 on a 28.6% HR/FB rate. Opposing hitters carry a .377 BABIP and Kelly’s strand rate sits at just 56.9%. There’s cause to believe regression is coming, but he’s also being tuned up for a 49.2% hard-hit rate.

If Kelly can get things on track in the next several weeks, the Dodgers will have added confidence in their ability to trot out five strong arms late in the year. Regardless, the late-inning group looks in need of supplementation. But that’s not much of a concern for an organization that has so much talent on and around the MLB roster. Friedman will have plenty of options on the trade market. With a huge division lead providing breathing room, the veteran exec sees a path to getting the unit he desires when the time comes: “We’ll operate on dual tracks of doing everything we can to get our existing guys better while canvassing the market.”

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