13 Pitchers Whose Saves Tallies Will Drive 2020 Earnings
The ability to handle late-inning pressure still has value to teams. But the accumulation of saves, standing alone, isn’t generally the driver of open-market bullpen salaries that it once was. For arbitration, however, saves tallies pay big, opening the door to significant earning opportunities for relievers.
So, which players have put themselves in position to command nice salary boosts this fall owing to their saves tallies? Here’s a list of the baker’s dozen hurlers who’ll be eligible for arbitration next year and have already accrued double-digit saves in 2019:
- Kirby Yates, Padres ($3.062MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Currently pacing all of baseball with 33 saves, Yates is lining up quite a fruitful final trip through arbitration. He’s not working off of the biggest platform, but he’s likely to get the biggest raise of this group with his saves totals and general brilliance (1.13 ERA, 77 strikeouts) … unless he and the Friars strike an extension.
- Roberto Osuna, Astros ($6.5MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Osuna has been effective, but not exceptionally dominant. Having blown five saves, and not been ridden particularly hard by the Houston org, he has accumulated somewhat fewer saves (26) than might have been anticipated for one of the league’s winningest teams. Osuna is still on pace to out-earn every other pitcher on this list in total arbitration earnings, owing to his massive Super Two starting salary.
- Edwin Diaz, Mets ($607K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Though he is still racking up strikeouts, Diaz is also proving exceptionally homer-prone in New York. His 5.56 ERA is an unquestionable disappointment. Still, having already picked up 25 saves and with more yet to come, he is going to command a big first-time arb salary. It just won’t be nearly as much as it would have been had his platform year looked more like his 2018 effort.
- Alex Colome, White Sox ($7.325MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The 30-year-old has the saves total (23) and ERA (2.30) of an ace reliever, with the peripherals (7.7 K/9 vs. 3.6 BB/9; 4.53 SIERA, 4.59 xFIP) of a passable middle reliever. There’s an argument to be made that he shouldn’t be tendered, since it’s going to cost a pretty penny, though that seems rather unlikely given that the South Siders decided against trading him when they had the chance this summer.
- Shane Greene, Braves ($4MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Unfortunately, Greene blew his shot — his first one, anyway; we’ll see how things progress in Atlanta — at building up his saves tally after being dealt to the Braves. He has already accumulated 22, so he’ll be in line for a nice raise regardless. In his last arb experience, Greene earned a raise of just over $2MM by closing out 32 wins in 2018.
- Hector Neris, Phillies ($1.8MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): The Philadelphia closer is still building on his 21-save figure. He has also already accumulated 68 strikeouts this season.
- Taylor Rogers, Twins ($1.525MM current salary; entering 2nd of 4 seasons of eligibility): The extra year of arbitration afforded by Super Two status sure can pay off. Rogers has 18 saves, 68 strikeouts, and a 2.68 ERA through 53 2/3 innings. A big raise this year will further raise his base for two additional arb trips.
- Luke Jackson, Braves ($585K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Few expected Jackson to remain on the Atlanta roster all year, let alone to accumulate 18 saves and 73 strikeouts to this point. He isn’t especially likely to pad his total down the stretch, having surrendered the job to a still-unsettled cast of incoming relievers, but Jackson ha set the stage regardless for a much-better-than-expected offseason payday.
- Ken Giles, Blue Jays ($6.3MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The Toronto organization was never going to win a ton of games, so Giles was never likely to accumulate a huge number of saves. But he’s stuck on 16 owing to an unfortunate elbow issue that arose in the midst of an outstanding season (1.89 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 38 innings). If he had remained healthy and taken over the 9th for a contender, he’d have had much greater earning capacity. Fortunately for Giles, he has a high starting point to build from.
- Hansel Robles, Angels ($1.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Another unexpected save tallier, Robles has picked up 16 with more to come. He has established himself as a key cog in the Halos pen, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll hang onto the closer’s role for 2020.
- Blake Treinen, Athletics ($6.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Treinen enjoyed a record-setting arb run last year but has regressed on the mound, working to a 4.74 ERA with just 8.4 K/9 against 5.7 BB/9 along with an uncharacteristically low 42.9% groundball rate. With 16 saves already logged, Treinen is going to command a not-unsubstantial raise on top of his already hefty salary. It’d be awfully tough to give up on a pitcher with his upside, particularly since he’s still pumping upper-nineties heat, but the tab seems steep for the A’s. If he’s not a non-tender candidate, Treinen will likely be batted around in offseason trade talks.
- Roenis Elias, Nationals ($910K current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): There’s no real chance that Elias will add to his sum of 14 saves, all accrued with the Mariners before he was dealt to D.C., but that’s still a nice feather in his cap. Elias can also hope to add some holds down the stretch, though he’ll have to work back from the injured list first.
- Liam Hendriks, Athletics ($2.15MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Since taking the reigns from Treinen, the breakout Aussie hurler has picked up 13 saves with more to come. While he’s not going to drive a huge raise with the save numbers alone, Hendriks is also pacing this list with a hefty 63 1/3 inning workload and has already recorded 88 strikeouts.
Rhys Hoskins Undergoes X-Ray On Hand
The Phillies staged one of the most memorable comebacks of the season Thursday, rallying from a 5-1 ninth-inning deficit against the Cubs to pull off a 7-5 victory. The game ended on a walk-off grand slam from outfielder Bryce Harper, with first baseman Rhys Hoskins among the players he knocked in. Hoskins got on base after taking a Pedro Strop pitch off the right hand, and it’s possible he suffered an injury in the process. The slugger underwent an X-ray on his hand afterward, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia was among those to report. Hoskins is optimistic he’ll be OK, but there’s no official word on his status yet.
Although Thursday was a resounding success for the Phillies, losing Hoskins would dampen enthusiasm in regards to their outlook. The club’s Harper-led triumph Thursday completed a three-game sweep of Chicago and raised Philadelphia’s record to 63-55. The Phillies are now just a game back of the Cubs for the National League’s second wild-card spot. Although Hoskins has been cold in August, the 26-year-old has still been one of the driving forces behind the Phillies’ solid record. Hoskins has batted .241/.381/.485 (125 wRC+) with 24 home runs and 2.4 fWAR across 532 plate appearances.
Along with posting quality production, Hoskins has been among the Phillies’ most durable players. To this point in the season, only two of the team’s other players – catcher J.T. Realmuto and third baseman Maikel Franco – have started games at first, and they’ve each done so just once. It’s unclear which Phillie would receive the bulk of the work at first in the event of a Hoskins injured list stint, but just-promoted veteran Logan Morrison seems like a strong bet.
Chris Taylor Begins Rehab Assignment
Injured Dodgers utilityman Chris Taylor began a rehab assignment at the Single-A level Thursday, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com relays. There’s no word on how long it’ll take Taylor to return to the majors.
The Dodgers have been without the versatile Taylor since July 14, when he fractured his left forearm. The hope then was Taylor would only sit out four to six weeks, but he obviously won’t make it back to the Dodgers at the low end of that timeline. Unsurprisingly, the depth- and talent-laden Dodgers have continued to thrive in Taylor’s absence. They owned a 62-33 record after the game in which he incurred his injury and now sit 81-42, which is easily the best record in the National League and places them a ridiculous 19 games up in the NL West.
Los Angeles’ roster figures to become even formidable with the return of Taylor, who overcame a slow start to post respectable numbers prior to his injury. While the 28-year-old’s overall production has fallen short of the figures he recorded from 2017-18, he has still slashed .261/.334/.452 (105 wRC+) with eight home runs and seven stolen bases.
Defensively, Taylor has logged double-digit appearances at both middle infield positions and in left field. LA has been in good hands in those spots without Taylor, however, as Max Muncy has manned the keystone and Corey Seager has handled short. As for the corner outfield, although Alex Verdugo‘s also on the IL, the Dodgers have largely deployed NL MVP candidate Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Matt Beaty to successful results of late.
Injury Notes: Cueto, Stanton, Hill, Morrow
Johnny Cueto‘s rehab outing with Single-A San Jose is set for tonight, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic and Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group), with the veteran righty slated to make 45 pitches. Cueto is expected to make one more start beyond tonight for San Jose, though the original plan of two further rehab outings at Triple-A would be altered, as Cueto might simply get called back to the majors if he is healthy and throwing well. By having “Cueto get up to speed in big league games,” as Pavlovic puts it, the Giants would get some needed rotation help, even if Cueto is limited to only four or five innings per start. All will depend on how Cueto is feeling as he reaches the final stages of his Tommy John rehab, of course, though getting Cueto back in anything close to his old form would certainly help a San Francisco club that is struggling to stay in wild card contention.
Here’s more on some other injury situations from around baseball….
- Yankees manager Aaron Boone and GM Brian Cashman both believe Giancarlo Stanton will be ready to return sometime in September, and the slugger himself told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that he hopes to get “a few weeks of at-bats before October.” Those at-bats could come in the form of simulated games or minor league games, however, as Stanton has yet to be cleared for on-field activity. A variety of injuries have limited Stanton to just nine games, making it a “brutal” season that has only been salvaged by the Yankees’ success. “That’s what’s kept it not so bad for me, is to watch everyone bring together wins all different ways….That’s what I’ve been focusing on, not ‘poor me’ or all that stuff,” Stanton said.
- Rich Hill and Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman haven’t closed the door on the possibility of Hill starting for the team in the postseason, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes, assuming Hill’s rehab from a flexor tendon strain proceeds as expected. Hill played a 50-toss game of catch from 120 feet today, and the next steps in his rehab include throwing off a mound next week and then tossing four bullpen sessions. From there, Hill “will make what amounts to rehab appearances in the majors. He would start with an inning or two, and increase the workload with each outing, one inning at a time, like in spring training.” This plan could get Hill ready to go for October, though if length is still an issue, the Dodgers could also use one of several other arms in combination with Hill in a piggyback situation.
- Brandon Morrow threw a live batting practice session in Arizona yesterday, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer told 670 The Score radio (hat tip to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune). It remains to be seen if Morrow will pitch at all in 2019, though he projected a possible return in early September in his most recent update, as he had been facing hitters and wasn’t feeling any soreness in his forearm or elbow.
6 Extended Players Who Have Improved In 2019
There was a well-documented run on contract extensions prior to this season, which bled into the current campaign in multiple instances. All told, 30 players inked multiyear pacts with their clubs between January and April. We highlighted five last week who’ve disappointed this year since landing their new deals. Now, here are six who have actually improved in 2019, thereby making their teams look that much better for locking them up…
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (six years, $120MM):
- There were many who believed Bogaerts left a good amount of money on the table last spring when he inked a long-term deal with the Red Sox a year before a potential trip to free agency. It was debatable then whether that was truly the case, but not anymore. The consistently terrific Bogaerts is now enjoying a career year at the age of 26. Bogaerts has totaled 5.5 fWAR on the strength of a .308/.384/.563 line (good for a 142 wRC+) through 539 plate appearances. With a personal-best 27 home runs, he’s a shoo-in for his first 30-HR campaign. It helps that Bogaerts has swung at fewer out-of-zone pitches than ever and walked at a career-best rate.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves (eight years, $100MM):
- Thanks in part to what’s somehow a team-friendly nine-figure contract, the FanGraphs crew recently ranked Acuna as the player with the most trade value in baseball. Anyone care to argue? The 21-year-old may become the game’s latest 40/40 player this season, having amassed 34 home runs and 28 stolen bases over 562 trips to the plate. He has also slashed .298/.377/.539 (134 wRC+), posted nine Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating among all three outfield positions, and racked up 4.8 fWAR.
Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves (seven years, $35MM):
- The majority of observers regarded the Albies deal as an absolute steal for the Braves when he signed it. The 22-year-old hasn’t done anything to change minds since then, having batted .298/.353/.502 (117 wRC+) with 18 homers and 11 steals across 530 PA. Albies has added three DRS and a 1.3 UZR in the field, helping lead to a 3.4 fWAR a year after he logged 3.8. The switch-hitting Albies was clearly among the game’s best second basemen before landing his extension, and the contract has only made him more valuable from Atlanta’s perspective.
Max Kepler, OF, Twins (five years, $35MM):
- Back in May, the Kepler extension was one of two MLBTR’s Jeff Todd highlighted as a gem for the club. The 26-year-old Kepler was off to an impressive start to the season at that point, and he hasn’t let up. Kepler’s already up to 32 homers, 12 more than his previous high-water mark, in 501 PA. Overall, he has batted .258/.337/.536 (124 wRC+) with 3.7 fWAR. Unlike many hitters who’ve increased their power, Kepler’s excellence hasn’t come with more strikeouts. He has fanned in a meager 16 percent of plate appearances and drawn walks at an above-average 10.2 percent clip.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds (three years, $30.5MM):
- The Reds extended Gray immediately after acquiring the 29-year-old from the Yankees, with whom he struggled. Wise choice. Gray was mostly successful with the Yankees before an adverse year and a half in New York, and he has returned to his top form as a member of the Reds. He owns a stellar 2.98 ERA/3.40 FIP with 10.45 K/9 (easily a career-high amount), 3.39 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent groundball rate over 132 2/3 innings. The fact that Gray has reverted to being a front-of-the-rotation arm is a key reason why the Reds’ starting staff has taken massive steps forward this season.
Jorge Polanco, SS, Twins (five years, $25.75MM):
- Polanco’s extension was another brilliant preseason decision by the Twins, who’ve seen the 26-year-old hit .294/.357/.487 (118 wRC+) with 17 long balls and 3.3 fWAR since signing it. Polanco, like Kepler, has been rather difficult to strike out, having gone down in that manner in a mere 15.8 percent of PA.
Rangers, Mike Minor Have Mutual Interest In Extension
Both the Rangers and left-hander Mike Minor are interested in continuing their relationship beyond the end of the 2020 season, when Minor’s current contract expires. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that that “preliminary extension talks” have already taken place between the team and Minor’s representatives, though more substantive negotiations are likely to wait until the offseason.
Minor’s future in Arlington was of great speculation in the weeks and months leading up to the trade deadline, as the veteran southpaw drew plenty of interest from teams in need of rotation help. The Yankees, Twins, and Phillies were just a few of the teams known to be linked to Minor’s trade market, and all of the buzz not only seemed to irritate Minor, but also seemed to impact his performance. Minor posted a 6.59 ERA over five starts in July, as opposed to a 2.40 ERA over 112 2/3 IP from March through June, and a perfect 0.00 ERA in 15 August frames.
It still isn’t out of the question that Texas eventually trades Minor this winter, perhaps depending on the tenor of the extension talks. But since GM Jon Daniels already made the call to keep Minor since the Rangers were still on the outskirts of the wild card race, there’s also a solid argument to be made for keeping him in the fold both in 2020 and beyond.
Minor has been tremendous since signing his three-year, $28MM deal in the 2017-18 offseason, following up a strong performance in 2018 with an All-Star showing in 2019. He has a 2.90 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.12 K/BB rate over 155 total frames, with a 175 ERA+ that leads all of baseball. While ERA predictors (3.97 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 4.30 SIERA) aren’t a fan and he is getting a lot of strand rate help (85.7%), Minor’s .291 wOBA is a near-perfect match of his .290 xwOBA. Looking at the Statcast numbers, Minor is in the top one percent of all pitchers in terms of fastball spin, which thus also explains why batters have been unable to square up much against him — Minor is in the 90th percentile in both exit velocity and hard-hit ball rate.
The big question going forward, of course, is whether Minor can continue to sustain this performance. Minor turns 32 in December, so an extension would begin with his age-33 season, and teams have been increasingly wary about signing any player (pitcher or hitter) into their 30’s. Nonetheless, the Rangers would surely appreciate gaining some extra stability beyond just Lance Lynn amidst an overall unstable rotation mix, while Minor would likely prefer an extension rather than risk a potential downturn in 2020 and an uncertain trip back into the free agent market.
Twins Activate Michael Pineda
The Twins activated right-hander Michael Pineda from the injured list Thursday, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. He’ll start the team’s game in Texas. The Twins optioned righty Randy Dobnak to Triple-A Rochester in a corresponding move.
Pineda’s back after missing a little over the minimum of 10 days for Minnesota, which placed him on the IL on Aug. 3 because of a strained triceps. That issue aside, this season has largely represented a healthy and successful return from Tommy John surgery for Pineda. He underwent the procedure in July 2017 as a Yankee, but the Twins nonetheless guaranteed the 6-foot-7, 280-pounder a two-year, $10MM contract in the ensuing offseason. While Pineda didn’t take the mound in 2018, the 30-year-old has given the contending Twins 117 innings of 4.15 ERA/4.16 FIP pitching with 7.92 K/9 and 1.77 BB/9 this season. Pineda’s contributions have helped the Twins to a half-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central.
In further good news for Minnesota, utilityman Willians Astudillo is set to begin a rehab assignment at the Double-A level. Astudillo, 27, hasn’t played in the majors since June 26 on account of a left oblique strain, continuing a rough year for the fan favorite. He’s just a .263/.282/.383 hitter in 142 plate appearances this season, though Luis Arraez and Ehire Adrianza have helped make up for that by emerging as extremely useful utility options for the Twins in 2019.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Wade Miley
Left-hander Wade Miley was one of the most cost-efficient free-agent signings in each of the previous two offseasons. He was highly successful as a Brewer in 2018 after settling for a minor league contract, and has continued to thrive this year as an Astro on the heels of taking a major league pact worth $4.5MM. Over the past season and a half, Miley ranks 14th among qualified starters in ERA (3.11).
Understandably, plenty of skepticism has accompanied Miley’s ability to prevent runs. Since 2018, only 20 qualified starters have registered a worse FIP than Miley’s 4.42, while he also falls toward the low end of the majors in SIERA (4.68; 19th from the bottom) and xFIP (4.44; 25th). One of the problems has been Miley’s K/BB ratio, which was especially poor last year after he struck out 5.58 hitters per nine and walked 3.01 across 80 2/3 innings as a Brewer. But Miley has improved significantly in that category through 141 2/3 frames as a member of the Astros, with whom he has struck out 7.43 and walked 3.05. While still unspectacular, those numbers are right in line with the former Diamondback, Red Sox and Mariner’s career totals (7.13 K/9, 3.12 BB/9).
Clearly, the 32-year-old Miley has never been anywhere near elite at racking up strikeouts or limiting walks, in part because of a fastball that clocks in at just about 91 mph. But Miley has typically induced a solid number of ground balls while limiting home runs, which has continued this year.
As a member of the Astros, Miley has forced grounders at a 52.4 percent clip and allowed homers on 15.1 percent of fly balls – both of which are well above average. He has also been tough on both lefties, whom he has held to a .255 weighted on-base average, and righties (.295). And good luck hasn’t been the driving force behind Miley’s ability to stymie hitters, as Statcast indicates the .289 wOBA he has given up is actually worse than his .282 expected wOBA. Miley’s xwOBA ranks in the majors’ 81st percentile, while his exit velocity against (70th), expected batting average (75th), hard-hit rate (81st) and expected slugging percentage against (84th) also sit toward the top of the majors.
The success Miley has enjoyed over the past couple years has come with a change in repertoire. When he was a member of the Orioles in 2017, batters had their way with Miley, who pitched to a bloated 5.61 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work. Miley’s career (or at least his time as a useful major leaguer) looked as if it was nearing an end then, but he has since revived it with a more cutter-heavy approach. He threw the pitch 14.3 percent of the time in 2017, per Statcast, but has used it at a 41-plus percent clip in both seasons since then. Miley has tossed it a personal-high 46.8 percent of the time this year, and hitters have recorded a modest .311 wOBA/.315 xwOBA against it. Miley’s other most common pitches – his changeup (19.6 percent; .198 wOBA/.191 xwOBA) and four-seamer (16.4 percent; .272/.258) – have confounded the opposition even more.
Despite the success Miley has enjoyed going back to 2018, the soft-tossing southpaw still isn’t a particularly exciting option. His earning power will always be somewhat limited as a result, but Miley should at least do better than the contract he raked in last offseason. A multiyear pact might be in the offing this winter for Miley, who will fall behind far more expensive hurlers such as teammate Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, perhaps among others, on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels Outright J.C. Ramirez To Triple-A
The Angels have outrighted right-hander J.C. Ramirez off their 40-man roster and down to Triple-A, the team announced. As Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group notes, Ramirez has the option of rejecting the outright assignment in order to instead become a free agent. Left-hander Adalberto Mejia has also been activated off the team’s restricted list.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2018, Ramirez made his return to the Major League mound on July 31, and the righty has a 4.50 ERA over eight innings of relief work. Of particular note was Ramirez’s 91mph average fastball velocity, a notable step down from his 95.5mph average over the course of his career, though it isn’t unusual for pitchers to gradually build up velocity after any long absence (especially in the aftermath of a major arm procedure).
The 30-year-old has already logged 41 1/3 minor league innings this season as part of his rehab work, and he’ll now head back to Triple-A unless he chooses to become a free agent. He could decide to simply remain in a familiar organization while he gets back to full health, unless Ramirez feels he’s ready for MLB action and opts to seek out a chance on another club’s 25-man roster. As evidenced by the outright, Ramirez is out of options, meaning that a new team would either have to keep him on their active roster or else expose him to waivers again in order to outright him to the minor leagues.
Diamondbacks Place Robbie Ray On 10-Day Injured List
5:58PM: Ray’s MRI didn’t indicate any serious damage, the southpaw told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).
3:14PM: The Diamondbacks have placed left-hander Robbie Ray on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back spasm, the team announced. Right-handers Jon Duplantier and Stefan Crichton have been called up from Triple-A to take the roster spots of Ray and Tim Locastro, who was optioned to Triple-A yesterday.
Back spasms forced Ray out of last night’s start after just two innings, and the southpaw was scheduled to undergo an MRI today. Obviously the D’Backs were concerned enough to send Ray to the IL, though Ray could end up missing a minimal amount of time, depending on the severity of the spasms. Needless to say, Arizona would love to have Ray healthy and contributing again as soon as possible, given how the D’Backs are fighting to stay in the postseason race (3.5 games out of an NL wild card position entering today’s play).
Since Zack Greinke was dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline, Ray has become the de facto ace of Arizona’s rotation, with his 3.99 ERA, 2.97 K/BB rate, and 11.9 K/9 over 142 innings this season. ERA predictors (4.09 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) and a .311 xwOBA that almost exactly matches his .314 wOBA back up those solid-if-unspectacular numbers. Ray himself received a lot of trade attention at the deadline, and it’s possible the D’Backs could again look at moving him this offseason, as 2020 is his final year of team control before free agency.
With Ray out, the Diamondbacks have Merrill Kelly, Mike Leake, Alex Young, and Zac Gallen remaining in the rotation. Duplantier made three starts earlier this season and is the likeliest candidate to fill in while Ray is out, plus Taylor Clarke is at Triple-A and the club could also explore using an opener. Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker are expected back from the IL at some point, though it isn’t certain if they’ll make it back to the active roster (or be used as starters) before Ray is able to return.