White Sox Likely To Place Eloy Jimenez On Injured List
White Sox left fielder Eloy Jimenez departed the team’s loss to the Royals on Tuesday with right elbow soreness after a collision with center fielder Charlie Tilson. While the severity of the injury isn’t yet known, Jimenez is “likely” headed to the IL, manager Rick Renteria told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters. He’ll undergo an MRI in the meantime, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets.
An IL stint would be the second of the year for the ballyhooed Jimenez, who suffered a right ankle sprain in late April. That injury cost Jimenez approximately four weeks of action. Since Jimenez returned May 20, he has started all but one of the White Sox’s games in left field.
Considered one of the majors’ elite prospects entering the season, the 22-year-old Jimenez has lived up to the billing at the plate since a rough April and May. The rookie posted a 144 wRC+ in June and has so far mustered a 124 mark in July. Overall, Jimenez has slashed .244/.307/.483 (107 wRC+) with 17 home runs in 267 plate appearances. Jimenez hasn’t been as successful in left, though, with minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-2.8 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Thanks in part to Jimenez’s offensive contributions, Chicago was unexpectedly in the AL playoff race not long ago. But reality has set in of late for the White Sox, losers of five straight to begin the second half of the season. They’re now 42-49 and a potentially insurmountable 9 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot. Losing Jimenez isn’t going to help the fading club’s cause.
Latest On Johnny Cueto, Evan Longoria
Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto is less than a year removed from undergoing a Tommy John procedure Aug. 2, 2018, but he’s already nearing a rehab assignment, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. Cueto will begin pitching in rehab games in the Arizona rookie league at the start of August, manager Bruce Bochy announced Tuesday.
The Giants’ expectation is that Cueto will factor into their major league plans this season, and considering the recent tear they’ve gone on, the 33-year-old could influence a playoff push. At 45-49, the Giants remain a serious long shot for a playoff spot, especially if they start dealing veterans by the July 31 trade deadline. For now, however, they’ve rallied to within three games of a wild-card spot in a crowded race.
Regardless of whether he does pitch for the Giants in 2019, Cueto has two more guaranteed seasons left on the six-year, $130MM deal he signed with the team going into 2016. The longtime workhorse and ex-ace lived up to the pact in its first year, firing 219 2/3 innings of 2.79 ERA/2.96 FIP ball, but has struggled with injuries and failed to perform to his previous levels since then. Dating back to 2017, Cueto has given the Giants 200 1/3 frames of 4.18 ERA/4.55 FIP pitching.
Meanwhile, another of the Giants’ high-paid veterans – third baseman Evan Longoria – revealed Tuesday that he could miss two weeks to a month because of plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The injury forced Longoria to the IL on Monday, derailing a superb stretch for the former superstar. Longoria has posted a video game-like 1.537 OPS and swatted six home runs in 34 plate appearances in July, raising his 2019 line to .241/.318/.446 (101 wRC+) with 13 HRs in 311 PA. The 33-year-old’s overall production as a Giant has still underwhelmed since they acquired him from the Rays prior to 2018, though Longoria’s recent play has aided in the team’s improbable run toward contention. As long as he’s out, fellow vet Pablo Sandoval figures to handle third for the Giants. That is, if they don’t trade Sandoval in the next two weeks.
Cardinals Place Matt Carpenter On Injured List
The Cardinals placed third baseman Matt Carpenter on the injured list with a right foot contusion on Tuesday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com was among those to report. It’s unclear how much time Carpenter will sit out, but for now, infielder Edmundo Sosa is up from Triple-A Memphis to take his roster spot.
Carpenter’s injury continues a surprisingly dreadful season for the accomplished 33-year-old, who just returned right after the All-Star break from a back strain that forced him to the shelf in late June. When Carpenter has been healthy enough to take the field in 2019, he has slashed an unappealing .215/.321/.372 (86 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 343 plate appearances. That’s a marked drop-off from the production the Cardinals have become accustomed to receiving from Carpenter, a .275/.377/.471 hitter with a 133 wRC+ in 4,298 trips to the plate from 2012-18.
With Carpenter having missed a fair amount of time of late, the Cardinals have gotten somewhat used to deploying Tommy Edman and Yairo Munoz at the hot corner. Those two will man the position again during Carpenter’s latest IL stay, according to Rogers. Neither player has performed much better (if at all) than Carpenter on a per-PA basis, though, and Edman and Munoz have combined for a measly four walks in 161 trips to the plate. They’ll need to do better than that going forward for St. Louis, which entered Tuesday tied for the National League’s second wild-card spot and a manageable two back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central.
Latest On Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber
Trevor Bauer‘s name has continued to be kicked around the rumor mill even as the Indians have narrowed the gap with the division-leading Twins. Zack Meisel of The Athletic chatted with Cleveland GM Mike Chernoff this week (subscription required) about the possibility of a Bauer trade and the delicate balance of trying to win in 2019 while also maintaining a competitive long-term core.
Chernoff spoke frequently about the “future sustainability” of Cleveland’s competitiveness, and while he understandably didn’t make any direct mention of Bauer’s availability (or lack thereof), the GM implied that the club will have to make some tough decisions.
“I also think we’re at a different point organizationally, like we were in the offseason, where a lot more of our guys are maturing on their contracts and so, regardless of our competitive position, you explore different things than you otherwise would have,” said Chernoff. (Cleveland, of course, cut substantial payroll this past offseason and reportedly even discussed moving Bauer and Corey Kluber over the winter.) Chernoff went on to acknowledge the need for “creative” ways to help the organization and a possible “continuation of the offseason plan.”
None of that is a declaration that Bauer will be traded to the highest bidder, but it also doesn’t sound as if such a move is expressly being ruled out. The Indians recently welcomed Mike Clevinger back from the injured list, and they’ve received strong work from sophomore Shane Bieber as well. Rookie Zach Plesac has been a pleasant surprise, too, although fielding-independent metrics suggest that he’s unlikely to sustain his solid ERA.
Beyond Bauer and that trio, Cleveland’s options have been questionable. Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez have pitched poorly. Carlos Carrasco was diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia, and while his prognosis is thankfully positive, there’s no telling when or if he’ll return in 2019. As such, Bauer is functioning as a vital member of the Cleveland rotation at present, and dealing him away would thin out a rotation that is already shaky after its top few spots.
That said, the Indians could soon welcome a two-time Cy Young winner back into the fold. Manager Terry Francona told reporters today that Kluber will throw a 20-pitch bullpen session tomorrow — his first since sustaining a fractured right forearm upon being struck by a comebacker earlier this season (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal). Kluber will be limited to all fastballs and will have some extra rest baked in between his first few ‘pen sessions, but it’s a decidedly encouraging update for the Indians and their fans.
What isn’t clear and may not become clear until the final hours leading up to the deadline is whether the potential return of Kluber will make Cleveland more willing to part with Bauer or more aggressive in pursuing a division title. The Indians dropped two of three games to the Twins over the weekend, failing to further close the gap between the two teams. Chernoff, though, pointed out to Meisel that his club still has 10 more meetings with the Twins in 2019 — albeit none before July 31. The play of both AL Central clubs over the next two weeks could go a long way in determining Cleveland’s approach as well.
For those still befuddled at the notion of trading Bauer at all when Cleveland is viable postseason contender, the decision seems to boil down to a long-term dilemma. Bauer’s salary is already at $13MM in 2019 and will rise to $18-20MM via arbitration this offseason. He’ll be a free agent after the 2020 campaign and has been open about his plans to play out his career on a series of one-year deals. In other words: he’s expensive, and the Indians have no hope of extending him.
If Cleveland had a wide-open payroll outlook, that might not be a major issue. However, Cleveland ownership seemingly mandated some offseason payroll deductions last winter, prompting the front office to work to get the club’s financial obligations down to the current ~$125MM level. The Indians only have about $48.4MM in guaranteed salary on next year’s books, but that number will balloon quickly with the current roster construction. Kluber’s $17.5MM option figures to be exercised, and Francisco Lindor will see a massive raise to this year’s $10.55MM salary. Add in Bauer’s raise, Clevinger’s first-year arbitration salary and a swath of pre-arb deals, and Cleveland will already be approaching this year’s payroll numbers despite the fact that they’re on pace for an attendance drop.
Trading Bauer would be a painful move for Chernoff and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti to make, but not one that would be tantamount to forfeiting the season. Cleveland could possibly add a young, MLB-ready piece in that deal and could also turn to the rental market to add a more affordable arm to help patch the hole left by Bauer. That’s just one very hypothetical scenario, of course, but that type of scenario is precisely the kind of “creative” roster juggling the Indians will have to consider in the coming weeks — regardless of eventual outcome.
Brendan Rodgers Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Top Rockies prospect Brendan Rodgers underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder today, Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets. The procedure will end the 22-year-old’s season.
Rodgers, the No. 3 overall pick by the Rockies in 2015, made his MLB debut this season and hit .224/.272/.250 in a small sample of 81 plate appearances. He’s been on the injured list since late June with what was initially termed a shoulder impingement, but it seems the extent of the injury was considerably greater than first believed.
Rodgers has been a fixture on prospect rankings since the moment he was drafted, entering the 2019 campaign as a consensus top-25 prospect in all of MLB. He did little to dispel that notion in Triple-A Albuquerque this season, hitting .350/.413/.622 with nine homers, 10 doubles and a triple in 160 plate appearances prior to his call up to the big leagues. It’s a hitter-friendly environment, to be sure, but Rodgers’ offensive output still checked in at 48 percent better than the league average, per wRC+.
Drafted as a shortstop, Rodgers now seems likely to move over to second base on a long-term basis. The Rockies have arguably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball with newly extended third baseman Nolan Arenado and shortstop Trevor Story locked in as long-term fixtures at their respective positions. Second base is less certain, though Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson present a pair of high-upside young options there as well. Given the Rockies’ wealth of infield talent, it’s possible that they’ll eventually make a move involving a young infielder. However, Rodgers’ injury serves as a reminder that perceived “surpluses” of this nature all too often sort themselves out in an unfortunate manner.
Jay Bruce Exits With Oblique Strain
Phillies slugger Jay Bruce exited Tuesday evening’s contest with a strained right oblique muscle, the Phillies announced. There’s no word on a a trip to the injured list, but the Phillies will likely have additional info after the game.
The majority of oblique strains send players to the injured list, and it’s not uncommon for position players to miss around a month with even a Grade 1 strain. Losing Bruce would be a blow to the Phillies’ lineup; while he’s only mustered a paltry .277 OBP since his acquisition, Bruce entered play Tuesday hitting .266 and slugging a whopping .574 with the Phils. He’s already drilled 10 long balls and six doubles with Philadelphia, and he’d plated 29 runs in his first 32 games with the team.
Bruce’s acquisition helped to offset the loss of Andrew McCutchen, who suffered a torn ACL earlier this season and won’t return until 2020. An absence for Bruce could open the door for the return of Nick Williams — the one-time top prospect who has yet to solidify himself as a big league regular in the manner most envisioned when he was rising through the minor leagues. The 25-year-old Williams logged an ugly .173/.221/.259 slash through 86 plate appearances with the Phillies earlier in 2019 before being optioned to Triple-A, but that poor output came in an extremely limited role that was surely foreign to him.
Since being sent to Triple-A for regular at-bats, Williams has laid waste to International League pitching. In 120 trips to the plate, he’s recorded a superlative .358/.417/.651 with six homers, 10 doubles and two triples. He’d be the obvious candidate to replace Bruce on a short-term basis, but one can only wonder whether the Phils would again look to the trade market for another outfield option. While the Phillies have quickly faded in the NL East race, they’re still very much in the thick of the NL Wild Card mix. And after such an aggressive offseason, it’d be a disheartening concession for the team’s decision-makers to operate as anything other than a deadline buyer.
Poll: The Reds’ Deadline Approach
Take one look at the Reds’ record – 43-48 – and it’s difficult to envision them as a team in position to buy prior to the July 31 trade deadline. On the other hand, the Reds certainly aren’t out of the playoff race, trailing the NL Central-leading Cubs by 5 1/2 games and sitting 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Cincinnati is also in possession of the NL’s fifth-best run differential (plus-33) and a more-than-respectable 49-42 Pythagorean record.
Despite the team’s .473 winning percentage and last-place status in its division, is a sleeping giant about to awaken in Cincy? That seems to be the hope for president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall, who have suggested over the past week that the Reds are more inclined to buy than sell before the month is out. Whether they should is another matter. The Reds will have to leapfrog four teams and overcome a significant deficit to jump the Cubs if they’re going to win their division this year. It seems unrealistic. They obviously have a better chance to secure a wild-card berth, but that would be a daunting task with eight teams ahead of them for the NL’s fifth and final playoff position.
Fortunately for the Reds’ front office, the club’s schedule during the two weeks leading up to the deadline could provide more clarity on whether to buy, sell or stand pat. The Reds are amid a three-game set against the Cubs, whom they beat Monday, and then have series against four other teams with better records (the Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Pirates). Their slate’s similarly imposing after the deadline, with the Braves, Angels, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres and Pirates set to serve as almost all of the Reds’ August opponents. Furthermore, the Marlins, Mariners and Mets are the only teams left on the Reds’ schedule through year’s end that aren’t legitimately in playoff contention at the moment.
The lack of tomato cans remaining on the Reds’ schedule may make selling over the next two weeks easier, as could the short-term pieces on their roster who could bring something back in trades. Outfielder Yasiel Puig – who started the year poorly but has been on a blistering pace since the beginning of June – as well as starters Tanner Roark and Anthony DeSclafani, second baseman Scooter Gennett, utilityman Derek Dietrich, shortstop Jose Iglesias, and relievers David Hernandez and Jared Hughes are all potential trade chips who will be free agents either after this season or the 2020 campaign. With the possible exception of Puig, no one in that group seems to stand much of receiving qualifying offer from the Reds when his team control expires. As such, it could behoove the Reds to move as many of them as possible right now for as much as teams are willing to pay.
On the flip side, no member of that bunch is a premium short-term piece (again, with the possible exception of Puig). Therefore, maybe you’re of the mind they should keep what they have, if not add to it, in lieu of selling vets for minimal returns and actually take a run at a playoff berth. For a franchise that’s staring at its sixth consecutive season without playoff baseball, perhaps there’s something to be said for making an against-the-odds effort to contend. The Reds tried to up their chances over the winter when they acquired Puig, Roark and others, though the win-loss results surely haven’t gone to the team’s liking thus far. Nevertheless, they don’t seem ready to say die as the 2019 deadline approaches.
(Poll link for app users)
As of now, do you believe the Reds should be deadline buyers?
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No 59% (3,221)
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Yes 41% (2,217)
Total votes: 5,438
Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio
If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…
Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13
- Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.
Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33
- A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14
- Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84
- It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.
Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72
- Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.
Mets Place Zack Wheeler On Injured List
July 16: Wheeler has been formally placed on the IL, the Mets announced. An MRI did not reveal any structural damage, Healey reports, but it’s still uncertain how long Wheeler will be out. Healey tweets that Wheeler declined to put a timetable on his expected return.
July 15: The Mets will place right-hander and top trade candidate Zack Wheeler on the injured list today due to shoulder fatigue, reports Newsday’s Tim Healey (Twitter link). Lefty Steven Matz will start in place of Wheeler tomorrow.
It’s still not known precisely how Wheeler’s trade status and value will be impacted. Even if the move is backdated the maximum three days, Wheeler still won’t be able to return until July 23rd. As Healey points out, that’ll give him a maximum of two starts before the trade deadline even in a best-case scenario.
If all goes well, the Mets could still get a haul for their top rental piece. If Wheeler doesn’t bounce back rapidly, or shows anything worrying once he is back on the hill, then all bets are off.
All things considered, the timing couldn’t be much worse for the Mets. The club has endured a miserable season to this point, with rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen recently acknowledging that the team has “low expectations” for the remainder of the year. The upcoming trade deadline seemingly offered a chance for the club to recoup a consolation prize or two by cashing in some veterans.
Wheeler is not only the team’s best pending free agent, he’s one of the top trade chips in all of baseball. The 29-year-old had finally moved past the health issues that dogged him earlier in his career, finding a new gear in his final two seasons before reaching the open market. While he only carries a 4.69 ERA this year, he has thrown harder than ever before, racked up an impressive 9.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9, and logged plenty of innings (119 over 19 starts).
Today’s news threatens to dent that profile of Wheeler as a deadline piece. Buying teams will be especially wary given his prior concerns and the lack of future contractual control. The Mets will have to hope that Wheeler is able to bounce right back and show he’s still throwing well. If not, their options could be limited, particularly given the lack of an August trade period to work with. Teams have in the past swung deals for injured players; the Rays’ 2013 acquisition of Jesse Crain comes to mind. But if Wheeler’s value is harmed sufficiently, it may well end up making greater sense for the team to hold tight and hope he throws well enough down the stretch to warrant a qualifying offer.
2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
We last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class at the end of April. No extensions have been signed since then, but otherwise there’s plenty of movement in the rankings. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.
1. Gerrit Cole. Cole maintains his spot atop this list, earning a second consecutive All-Star nod and cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. We haven’t seen a starting pitcher sign a seven-year deal since Stephen Strasburg inked his $175MM extension in May 2016. The largest contract signed by a starter remains David Price‘s seven-year, $217MM deal from December 2015. The way free agency has been trending, it’s difficult to say whether Cole can reach the $200MM heights of Price, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke. For more on Cole’s free agency, click here.
2. Anthony Rendon. In the midst of his best offensive season yet, Rendon was finally voted into the All-Star game by his peers, though he was unable to participate. Rendon quietly keeps putting up six-win seasons as the Nationals’ third baseman, and he’s on the cusp of a huge contract. Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and the Nationals discussed an extension this month, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, but Boras suggested the ball is in the club’s court. A six-year deal could be a reasonable goal.
3. Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is adding another fine season to his resume, if a bit homer-prone. It’s shaping up to be his first three-win season since 2016. He’s one of baseball’s most likely trade candidates this month, though the Giants are complicating matters by playing well of late. San Francisco is only three games out of the Wild Card, and if that holds up over the next two weeks, I can see the club holding onto him. That’s relevant to this post in that the team would saddle him with a qualifying offer in that case, reducing his earning power. In such a scenario, an extension with the Giants could begin to make sense.
4. Zack Wheeler. Wheeler’s spot on this list is precarious, as the 29-year-old righty recently landed on the IL for shoulder fatigue. The timing of the injury gives scant time for Wheeler to re-establish his health in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, and also stings from the pitcher’s standpoint if it leads to a qualifying offer after the season. Mike Puma of the New York Post suggests a qualifying offer from the Mets “seems unlikely” for Wheeler, but I think if he pitches reasonably well to close out the year, he’ll get one. Though Wheeler’s ERA is up to 4.69, he’s demonstrated skills that typically lead to something closer to 4.00.
5. J.D. Martinez. Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract after this season. He owns a solid 129 wRC+ to date, though that’s short of the lofty standard he set in years prior. As a DH who turns 32 in August, I don’t believe Martinez would do much better than $62.5MM on the open market, but his earning power still secures a spot on this list.
6. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract after the season, and there’s a decent chance the Yankees’ closer exercises that right. The Yankees could also get out ahead of the situation by adding, say, an extra year and $20MM to the deal. But Chapman turns 32 in February, and the Yankees may be content to let him leave even after another excellent season. Wade Davis‘ three-year, $52MM deal from December 2017 could be a target for Chapman if he hits the open market.
7. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s 1.97 ERA in 15 starts last year seemed impossible to beat, yet this year his ERA sits at 1.78 and he started the All-Star Game for the NL. The 32-year-old lefty has walked a mere 2.5% of batters faced this year, best in baseball. Though Ryu has not pitched 150 innings in a season since 2014, his injuries have not involved his arm or shoulder following his September 2015 elbow debridement procedure. If Rich Hill can get three years and $48MM heading into his age-37 campaign, it stands to reason that Ryu can get something similar heading into his age-33 season, particularly since he’s ineligible for another qualifying offer.
8. Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is having a respectable bounceback season for the Cardinals, with a 118 wRC+ in 326 plate appearances. However, he’s a bat-first left fielder and is currently on the IL with multiple finger fractures. Ozuna will be just 29 in November, but he won’t be hitting the same market that saw Justin Upton snag a five-year, $106MM extension in November 2017. Ozuna also may come with a qualifying offer attached, and seems like a player who could face a difficult free agency.
9. Jake Odorizzi. A new entrant to this list, Odorizzi made his first All-Star team this year and owns a 3.06 ERA through 94 innings. 30 in March, he should be in line for a healthy contract with a strong second half. However, he may be saddled by a qualifying offer and could fail to reach the new standard of four years and $68MM set by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas.
10. Yasmani Grandal. Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM during the offseason before signing a one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee. He’s matching last year’s excellent offense thus far and won’t have to contend with a qualifying offer this time, and should come out ahead on the gamble.
Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (can opt of remaining four years and $100MM, Kenley Jansen (can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM), Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Didi Gregorius, Nicholas Castellanos, Will Smith, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Mike Moustakas