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Zack Cozart Diagnosed With Calf Strain

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The Angels will go without third baseman Zack Cozart for at least “a few weeks,” skipper Brad Ausmus tells reporters including J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). He has been diagnosed with a grade 1 calf strain.

Given the timing, it’s fair to wonder whether Cozart is at risk of missing the start of the season. It emerged over the weekend that he was dealing with a minor calf problem, though it now seems it’s significant enough to earn a place on the scale. A grade 1 diagnosis is at the mild end of the spectrum, though the Halos will need to take a careful approach to avoid a lengthier absence.

Cozart, 33, is due $12.67MM this year and next. He earned the same in 2018, which turned out to be a forgettable debut season with the Angels. Cozart limped to a .219/.296/.362 batting line in 253 plate appearances before undergoing a significant shoulder procedure.

The focus this spring was on the health of Cozart’s left arm and his ability to regain the form he showed in an outstanding 2017 season. Now, he’ll also need to work through this lower-leg ailment.

At his best, Cozart is an elite defender and quality hitter. His ability to get back on track is a key aspect of the Angels’ hopes for the coming campaign. Earning a postseason spot promises to be a tall order in a top-heavy American League. Tommy La Stella, Taylor Ward, and Kaleb Cowart are among the options to fill in at third if Cozart misses time early.

Travis Jankowski Diagnosed With Broken Wrist

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TODAY: Jankowski is expected to require surgery and miss approximately three months of action, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell tweets.

YESTERDAY: Padres outfielder Travis Jankowski has been diagnosed with a broken wrist, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. It’s not yet known how long he’ll be sidelined, but it is anticipated that he “will miss significant time.”

The 27-year-old Jankowski suffered the injury laying out for a catch. Particulars aren’t yet known this time around, but he has once previously suffered a generally similar injury. Back in 2014, Jankowski fractured his wrist in a collision with an outfield wall.

Jankowski is earning $1.165MM this year as a Super Two player. While he has not yet shown much with the bat at the MLB level, he is coming off of a personal-best offensive season. Over 387 plate appearances in 2018, Jankowski slashed .259/.332/.346 with 24 stolen bases. He’s a quality outfield defender who can play up the middle, significantly boosting his utility.

The Friars have the depth to deal with an absence from Jankowski, with Manuel Margot and Franchy Cordero representing a potential righty/lefty mix up the middle. But they’ll lose a roster element they had hoped to carry entering the season. The Pads have a few lefty-hitting outfielders on the depth chart in Boog Powell and Alex Dickerson, though both were recently sent to minors camp.

With Jankowski down to open the year, then, the San Diego organization could consider a wide variety of alternative means of utilizing the 25-man roster opening. It could open the door to intriguing outfielder Franmil Reyes. Utilitymen Jose Pirela and Javy Guerra are also candidates who already have 40-man roster spots. The same goes for corner infielder Ty France, though it’s less clear how he’d function on a roster that now features high-priced regulars at his accustomed positions.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After one last, half-hearted gasp with the scattered remains of 2015’s championship core, the Royals have finally committed fully to a rebuild.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

  • Selected RHP Sam McWilliams from Rays with 2nd overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
  • Acquired RHP Chris Ellis from Rangers for cash considerations after he was selected from Cardinals with 8th overall pick in Rule 5 Draft

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

An ’18 return to 100-loss territory, a land so often populated by the club in the early part of the century, marked a bitter end to the Royals’ most successful run in ages. With meager expectations at most spots on the roster, the club oversaw a rather quiet offseason. Bargain bullpen pickups were collected, some with significant upside, and the Royals again chased down a couple of burners to roam the Kauffman prairie.

Billy Hamilton, non-tendered just before the late-November deadline by the Reds, serves as the big-ticket item here. The 28-year-old checks all of Kansas City’s favorite boxes: speed, defense, a contact-oriented approach (albeit one without much contact), and a strong presence in the clubhouse. The longed-for breakout still hasn’t arrived, as Hamilton’s offensive profile – super-soft contact, a curiously high pop-up rate, and an ongoing inability to work the count – has stayed mostly stagnant in his five career big-league seasons. He’s a savant on the bases, though, maybe an all-time great, and could lead the AL in swipes if he sits atop manager Ned Yost’s lineup for much of the year. And if a plate surge is still to come, if Hamilton starts filling those massive gaps with liners and shows a newfound devotion to the strike zone, the Royals could have the steal of the decade: the speedster has, after all, posted two seasons of almost 3.0 fWAR despite never having eclipsed the 80 wRC+ plateau.

Kansas City, under GM Dayton Moore’s watch, has never soured on its taste for former top prospects (especially of the homegrown variety), and again took a bite this offseason with the inking of utilityman Chris Owings to a minor deal. Owings should see plenty of time in the infield, with much of it likely coming at the hot corner, and he’ll look to a rebound from a career-worst output in 2018. The 27-year-old shares many Hamilton traits, including a longstanding allergy to the walk, but he did up his hard-hit rate to a career-high 39% late season despite an ugly .206/.272/.302 batting line. The contact-over-discipline has philosophy has invited scorn from all manner of pundits during Moore’s tenure, and can at times yield disastrous results (especially, as has been the case with Hamilton and Owings, when the low-walk totals aren’t offset by suppressed K rates), but the Royals remain zealous devotees.

On the pitching side, Brad Boxberger, Jake Diekman, and Drew Storen were all brought in to shore up a shoddy pen that ranked last among all MLB teams with -2.2 fWAR last year. The club needs more than just that aging trio, of course, but it’s nonetheless a massive upgrade from ’18, when failed starters and low-impact mercenaries were expected to fill the shoes of former giants. Boxberger, who was Arizona’s closer for much of last season, at times seems unhittable; other times, he looks lost, missing too often over the middle of the plate, or being unable to find it entirely. Kauffman’s dimensions should negate his gopher-ball itch, but seem an ill fit for Diekman, who keeps most of his contact in play. Storen hasn’t been effective in years, but comes with almost zero risk on a minors deal. His pedigree, too, is right up the Royals’ alley.

Questions Remaining

The Royals did almost nothing to address a torched rotation, adding just Homer Bailey and Kyle Zimmer low-commitment deals. The club apparently has high hopes for Jakob Junis and Brad Keller, both of whom were around league-average in ’18. Both are useful, young, affordable pitchers, though neither scouts nor stats seem to see much in the way of upside. Otherwise, veterans Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy will look to rediscover their form, while Jorge Lopez and Ben Lively are among the other 40-man options. It’s an underwhelming unit on the whole. Help is on the way – the club plucked polished college arms with each of its four first-round picks, all of which came in the top 40 – but still a couple years out. In the meantime, KC might have done well to lock down a Drew Pomeranz/Mike Fiers-type or two (low-cost options with fly-ball tendencies).

With Salvador Perez expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, catcher is now an issue as well. The club has been connected recently with free agent Martin Maldonado, but subsequent reports suggest the team is more comfortable going with a questionable Cam Gallagher/Meibrys Viloria duo. The latter is seen in some circles as a rather intriguing prospect, but he has yet to play above the High-A level apart from a late-2018 taste of the majors. Perez will miss the entire season if he goes under the knife, so a stopgap would fit nicely, but the Royals have always prized in-house options more than outside ones.

The plan for the rest of the roster involves a series of dice throws. KC will give first base to Ryan O’Hearn, who earned a longer look after an eye-opening late-season debut but hasn’t produced much offense in two seasons at Triple-A. Hunter Dozier didn’t thrive in 2018, his first substantial MLB time, but the oft-injured top draft pick appears to be in line for much of the time at third. In the outfield/DH mix, the Royals have a foursome of former top-100 prospects vying for time: Brett Phillips, Jorge Bonifacio, Brian Goodwin, and Jorge Soler. All have flashed talent at times but each is still looking to find his ceiling — or, at least, consistent production and a steady MLB role. There’d be more chances to work with were it not for the ongoing presence of Alex Gordon in left field. He has posted a dreadful .225/.310/.355 slash line since signing a four-year, $72MM deal that will expire at season’s end. It’s possible that one or more of these players could emerge as important pieces, but projection systems don’t love the odds. The Royals could cycle through some of the roster spots occupied by this slate of names if there are any stumbles or if more appealing opportunities arise.

Fortunately for the Kansas City faithful, the one roster spot we haven’t yet touched upon is also the most exciting one. If there’s a potential building block in place, it’s the affordable and controllable middle-infield combination. Adalberto Mondesi finally took over for the clingy Alcides Escobar at short last season and flourished in a full-time role. The 23-year-old son of Raul has a long track record of out-making in the minors – though yes, he was rushed – so there’s still some variability here, but the tools are exciting and projection systems are bullish. Mondesi will turn two with the club’s best player, the recently-extended Whit Merrifield. The Royals bought some cost certainty and a bit of upside in the deal, which arguably makes sense for the player even while increasing the value of his contract rights. While the club has resisted trade interest in the past, Merrifield could still be the juicy trade bait the team desperately needs to kick the rebuild into high gear.

What to Expect in ’19

The full-rebuild Royals could again threaten for the franchise record in losses in 2019. Always the high guys on their farm-produced regulars, Dayton Moore’s staff anticipates the downturn will be a quick one. But the young major-league squad is littered with checkered minor-league pasts and the farm system is generally ranked among the bottom third leaguewide. The team would do anything to avoid reprising its pitiful stretch in the 90s and early aughts, but the current trajectory, kicked off course by a series of missteps and high-round failures in recent drafts, is veering dangerously close to the edge.

How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Royals' offseason?
C 37.28% (1,536 votes)
D 30.97% (1,276 votes)
F 16.55% (682 votes)
B 12.99% (535 votes)
A 2.21% (91 votes)
Total Votes: 4,120

Blue Jays Designate Dwight Smith Jr., Announce Buchholz Signing

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The Blue Jays have announced a pair of corresponding transactions. Outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. was designated for assignment in order to clear roster space for righty Clay Buchholz, whose previously reported deal is now official.

Smith, 26, has spent most of the past two seasons at Triple-A, where he carries a .271/.354/.401 slash with 14 home runs over 810 plate appearances. Notably, the left-handed-hitter has shown good plate discipline, with a combination of 91 walks and 124 strikeouts at the highest level of the minors.

It’s hardly a world-beating profile for a player who has mostly lined up in left field. But Smith has performed well in his limited opportunities at the game’s highest level, even if it’s hard to glean much from 104 plate appearances. And he has logged significant innings at the other two outfield spots, increasing his viability as a big-league bench option. With an option season still remaining, perhaps another organization will see cause to work out a trade or put in a claim.

NL Notes: Phillies, Kershaw, Strahm

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As it plodded forward over a period of months, the free agency of Bryce Harper was more laborious than intriguing for the outside observer. But the twists and turns, the strategies and stratagems, and the overriding uncertainty that blanketed the process are all much more interesting when told in a retrospective, narrative form. In a subscriber-only post, Matt Gelb of The Athletic has penned one of the most fascinating hot stove stories in memory regarding the Phillies’ high-stakes offseason, which culminated recently with the signing of Harper. The 26-year-old star set out seeking a record-setting deal in all aspects (length, guarantee, AAV), per Gelb. He also told the Philadelphia organization during their mid-January meeting that he wanted to pick a long-term home and wasn’t interested in opt-outs. Meanwhile, the club was amply willing to make a lengthy commitment, so long as the competitive balance tax burden wasn’t too onerous. The club’s initial $330MM offer was for a 15-year term, with the final deal coming together when the Phils agreed to knock two years off of the length. By the end of the impeccably crafted article, Harper’s free agent process feels like a roller coaster — a thrilling ride with an utterly predictable result. As Gelb puts it, at the moment of decision, the organization realized that this was “a lifetime deal, a marriage between a starved franchise and the game’s most marketable star.”

Frankly, there’s no substitute for reading the full account, which paints a vibrant picture of the Phils’ winter efforts. Here’s more from the National League:

  • Although the Dodgers remain hopeful that Clayton Kershaw will be ready to make his ninth consecutive Opening Day start, manager Dave Roberts acknowledged to reporters Monday that the left-hander may not be ready to go come March 28 (link via Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times). Kershaw threw from 60 to 70 feet Monday, per DiGiovanna, and Roberts indicated that the lefty continues to trend in the right direction. Even if Kershaw isn’t ready for the opener, there’s no indication to this point that he’d need to miss significant time early in the season. Indeed, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets, Roberts says that Kershaw emerged from his throwing session today feeling “pretty excited” with how he felt. Understandably, Roberts also suggested that there’s too much emphasis being placed on Opening Day. If Kershaw isn’t ready to go, the Dodgers will still have Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling as viable rotation pieces, with Brock Stewart and Caleb Ferguson serving as depth options.
  • Padres skipper Andy Green has suggested that the main factor in determining whether lefty Matt Strahm will be in the rotation or bullpen will simply be whether he’s able to get stretched out this spring, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. Strahm tossed 40 pitches in today’s three-inning spring outing, Acee notes, which could bode well for the southpaw’s chances given that there are still three weeks of camp remaining. Strahm, 27, was primarily a reliever in San Diego last season but has started at the minor league level in the past — primarily with the Royals. While Strahm shined as a bullpen option in San Diego last season, it’s understandable that the Friars would want to see if they could potentially coax more innings out of the intriguing southpaw.

Latest On Brandon Morrow’s Rehab Timeline

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It has been known for some time that Cubs closer Brandon Morrow would likely not be ready for the start of the season, but his precise timeline has been tough to guess. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian was among those to tweet, there’s now a clear target date for Morrow to throw his first pen session: March 25th.

Morrow dealt with a biceps injury last season and underwent offseason surgery on his elbow. The current rehab plan seems to be for Morrow to continue building up strength and testing his powerful right arm over the next several weeks. So long as he tolerates further increases in his long-toss program, he’ll get back on the bump near the end of the month.

Even if Morrow toes the rubber on the 25th, it’ll still leave several steps left before he’s ready for competitive action. From that point, he’d need to regain the feel for his arsenal, step in against live hitters, and progress to some sort of game-like action before potentially undertaking a rehab assignment in lieu of the Spring Training contests he’ll have missed.

The broader timeline remains foggy and obviously depends quite a bit on how Morrow comes through each forthcoming test. His bullpen mates reported to camp on February 13th; by that measure, at least, he’ll be something like five or six weeks behind schedule. Of course, Morrow has been ramping up for duty in other ways and has previously indicated he anticipates missing about a month of action.

It remains to be seen how quickly Morrow will move once he nears readiness. By that point, the Cubs will already have quite a bit more information than they do now about their immediate roster needs. Regardless, the club will surely weigh heavily the knowledge of Morrow’s long and short-term health history.

This time last year, Morrow was ramping up for a highly successful first half of the 2018 season — his first on a two-year, $21MM contract that brought him to Chicago. That he was in position to sign that deal was in itself quite notable, given that Morrow had only just revived his injury-wracked career. After 30 2/3 innings of 1.47 ERA pitching, though, Morrow hit the DL with what seemed like a minor issue. He never made it back, with the team shutting him down in mid-September after hope of a late-season return faded.

Entering the winter, the Cubs made clear they would keep Morrow penciled in as their primary closer. But his outlook was downgraded again when he ended up requiring an elbow debridement procedure in early November. With little free payroll to allocate in free agency, the Cubs never pursued a true replacement, though they did add a hurler who has late-inning experience. Brad Brach joins Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler as Chicago relievers with at least twenty MLB saves.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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This is the first post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

It was another low-key winter in Motown as the Tigers continued their rebuild process.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

Jordy Mrcer | Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY SportsJordy Mercer and Josh Harrison have spent virtually their entire MLB careers as teammates. That connection will continue for at least part of the 2019 season, as the former Pirates each signed on to form Detroit’s new middle infield duo.  The Tigers turned to Mercer to fill the hole left behind by free agent shortstop Jose Iglesias, then later inked Harrison to take over as the everyday second baseman.  Such names as Troy Tulowitzki and former Tiger Ian Kinsler were also considered by the team to fill the middle infield gaps.

Mercer and Harrison were inked to relatively inexpensive one-year deals, giving the Tigers flexibility should youngsters such as Dawel Lugo, Isaac Paredes, or Willi Castro force the issue for playing time as early as this summer.  By that same token, Mercer and Harrison could both be trade deadline chips if the Tigers find a contending team eager for infield help.

In Harrison’s case, he has particular upside after struggling through an injury-plagued 2018.  Harrison also didn’t perform terribly well in 2015 or 2016, though he was an All-Star as recently as 2017.  The 31-year-old doesn’t have to do a ton to outplay his $2.5MM contract, however, and Harrison’s overall value could improve if the Tigers shield him from tough right-handed pitching every once in a while.  Harrison also could provide extra depth at third base or the corner outfield, though he played almost exclusively as a second baseman last season. That flexibility makes it particularly easy to imagine him as a mid-season trade candidate.

While Harrison himself provides some versatility, his addition moves Niko Goodrum into a superutility role, allowing the Tigers to deploy him all around the diamond as the situation warrants.  Veterans Gordon Beckham and Pete Kozma are also at Spring Training on minor league deals, fighting with Ronny Rodriguez to win a utility infield job and potentially pushing Goodrum into seeing more corner outfield time, rather than infield duty.  Goodrum could also see substantial action at first base, since Miguel Cabrera is likely to receive the lion’s share of DH at-bats. (Backup catcher John Hicks could again factor at the first base position as well.)

As they did last winter in signing Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano, the Tigers added a pair of low-cost veteran arms to the rotation in Tyson Ross and Matt Moore.  Ross turned in a useful 2018 season with the Padres and Cardinals in 2018, posting a 4.15 ERA and 1.97 K/BB rate over 149 2/3 innings.  It’s probably too much to expect that Ross can recapture his mid-decade All-Star form (prior to two lost seasons due to injury), though he should give Detroit some solid innings.

Moore hopes to follow in Ross’ footsteps with a bounce-back season of his own, as Moore has badly struggled in each of the last two seasons, to the point of being relegated to the Rangers’ bullpen last season.  It wasn’t long ago that Moore was one of the game’s most vaunted pitching prospects, so the Tigers are hoping the change of scenery can revive Moore’s career.

Questions Remaining

It seemed as if the Tigers were simply ready to move on from Iglesias, as a case could be made that re-signing Iglesias (10 fWAR over 656 career games) would’ve provided more value than adding Mercer (7.8 fWAR through 821 career appearances with Pittsburgh).  Mercer is only the slightly better hitter of the two, and Iglesias is the decidedly better fielder.  Considering that Iglesias ended up landing only a minor league deal from the Reds, spending $5.25MM on Mercer seems like something of an overpay.

This being said, it could be that the Tigers simply felt Mercer had more future trade value, given that they’d spent much of 2018 unsuccessfully trying to find a trade partner for Iglesias.  Plus, when a club is still in the relatively early stages of a rebuilding plan, it’s hard to argue too strenuously about which veteran was or wasn’t signed to a one-year contract.  Mercer, Harrison, Ross, and Moore could all very well be playing on different teams by September, and the Tigers’ focus for 2019 will again be on seeing which of its young players can emerge.

To this end, catcher James McCann was non-tendered after a rough campaign, wrapping up his four-year run as the team’s most frequently used backstop and giving the Tigers a chance to see what they have in Grayson Greiner.  (Both Greiner and Hicks may ultimately be keeping the catcher’s spot warm for prospect Jake Rogers in a year or two.)  The Tigers didn’t add any veteran outfield help, preferring to stick with incumbents JaCoby Jones and Mikie Mahtook in center field, and giving prospect Christin Stewart a full shot as the everyday left fielder.

Perhaps the most notable element of the Tigers’ offseason was what they didn’t do — namely, trade any of their notable veterans.  It probably isn’t surprising that Michael Fulmer and Shane Greene weren’t moved in the wake of down years, as the Tigers don’t want to sell low. Swingman Blaine Hardy drew some interest from Oakland, though nothing came together. All three of those pitchers will very likely still be in a Detroit jersey on Opening Day.  None of this group can said to be premium trade chips, and the slowed free agent market also undoubtedly hampered Detroit’s trade negotiations.  For instance, if you’re the Athletics, why deal for Hardy when you could simply sign a similar type of pitcher in free agency without having to give anything up in return?

This could also explain why the Tigers non-tendered Alex Wilson, who was projected to earn a modest $2.8MM salary in arbitration.  It wasn’t a high figure for an unspectacular but solid reliever like Wilson, though since the Tigers considered him expendable, they decided to simply part ways before the arb deadline since no trade interest could be located.

The most prominent figure in Detroit trade rumors, of course, has been slugger Nicholas Castellanos.  The Braves, Mets, and Dodgers were all linked to Castellanos at various points this winter, though none were willing to meet the high asking price the Tigers placed on the outfielder.  Detroit was looking for a prospect (or prospects) that would top the compensatory first-round sandwich pick they could receive next winter if Castellanos receives and rejects a qualifying offer and then signs elsewhere. Castellanos himself expressed a desire to be moved before the start of camp, but nothing appealing ever came across the desk of GM Al Avila.

As with the Tigers’ lower-level trade candidates, Castellanos’ market was undoubtedly harmed by the presence of so many other outfielders available in free agency (or in other trades).  Furthermore, while Castellanos has posted some fine numbers (.285/.336/.495 in 1790 PA, 67 homers) over the last three seasons, his bat isn’t elite enough that teams are willing to overlook his poor right field defense.  To this end, it’s interesting that all of Castellanos’ known suitors were NL teams, though it’s fair to assume that some American League clubs also made inquiries.

If Castellanos keeps up his hitting production, he’ll still get some looks at the trade deadline, and his market will only grow if he becomes even borderline passable as a right fielder.  Still, it seems like the Tigers will need to lower expectations about what they’ll be able to receive in a Castellanos trade, given how bat-only players have become far less sought-after than they were even only a few years ago.  Topping a QO draft pick may not be feasible — if that’s even a reasonable guide to go by. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press recently observed that the Tigers may not end up issuing Castellanos a qualifying offer in the fall, as he could accept that one-year deal (which will be in excess of $17.9MM) rather than taking his chances on the open market with draft compensation attached.

Castellanos has recently expressed interest in a contract extension to remain in Detroit, a possibility the team has pursued previously. With Cabrera already locked into DH duty through the 2023 season, though, there isn’t much room for the Tigers to carry another bat-only player over the long term.  Since Avila has intimated that the Tigers won’t look to really boost payroll until after the 2020 season, keeping Castellanos at a hefty salary doesn’t seem to fit Detroit’s timeline.

2019 Season Outlook

It looks to be another long year for Detroit fans.  Even in a weak AL Central, the Tigers aren’t likely to make much noise.  Perhaps the club can hope to top the ghastly 64-98 record it has posted in successive seasons, but it’d be hard to expect more than modest improvement given the present state of the roster

How would you grade the Tigers’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Tigers' Offseason?
C 37.52% (2,167 votes)
D 30.12% (1,740 votes)
F 16.67% (963 votes)
B 13.23% (764 votes)
A 2.46% (142 votes)
Total Votes: 5,776

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs, Brad Brach Restructure Contract

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The Cubs and right-hander Brad Brach quietly restructured their original contract following Brach’s medical reviews, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Brach says “a little bit of a viral infection” caused the change.

It appears the new pact promises Brach at least $3MM. Like the first iteration, it has quite a few moving parts.

The two sides initially agreed to a $4.35MM deal that included a $3MM base salary for 2019. It also came with competing club/player options that put at least $1.35MM in Brach’s control for the 2020 campaign.

Under the new agreement, Brach’s ’19 base salary will be just $1.65MM. He’ll have the ability to earn an additional $850K worth of bonuses based on days spent on the active roster, with $350K due for just one single day. After the season, the Cubs will decide between a $5MM option and a $100K buyout. If declined, Brach can exercise a player option at $1.35MM.

At the end of the day, it seems the Cubs will get an even better buy on a solid relief arm. Brach, who’ll soon turn 33, has worked to a 3.08 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 456 career innings in the majors. The veteran hurler says he’s excited to join the Cubs, but joined a growing list of players to raise an eyebrow at a free-agent process in which he received similar offers on a similar timeline from multiple teams.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

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The Astros haven’t been engaged on Dallas Keuchel in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest look at the free-agent left-hander’s apparently stagnant market (subscription required). The Phillies, he adds, still have interest only in a “very” short-term deal, as was reported last week. Meanwhile, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that unless Keuchel or free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is suddenly willing to take a one-year deal, the Twins aren’t likely to sign either pitcher three weeks into Spring Training. As for the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote late last week that spring ailments for Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman haven’t been deemed concerning enough for Atlanta to pursue Keuchel.

It’s hardly an encouraging set of updates for either free agent, particularly Keuchel, whom Olney suggests is being harmed to an extent by the fact that he doesn’t fit today’s mold of hard throwers that permeate the game. Olney notes that Keuchel’s average fastball (89.3 mph) ranked 55th of 57 starters who qualified for the ERA title in 2018.

While perhaps some teams would prefer harder-throwing options, that stat doesn’t seem especially concerning when presented with further context. Keuchel’s average fastball last season was actually improved over a pair of seasons in which he was slowed by back and neck injuries in 2016-17. In fact, in Keuchel’s Cy Young-winning 2015 season, he averaged just 89.6 mph on his heater, so it’d be puzzling to see significant level of concern over that fastball velocity. Furthermore, a look at the names around Keuchel near the bottom of the fastball velocity leaderboard includes quality arms such as Marco Gonzales, Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, ranked only 43rd among those 57 qualified starters at 90.8 mph, and he secured a six-year contract that promises him $140MM. That deal came at a younger age and on the heels of a better season, clearly, but the contract still runs counter to the idea that teams will only pay for premium velocity.

None of that is to say that Keuchel isn’t without red flags, of course. The lefty’s strikeout percentage dipped from 21.4 percent in 2017 to 17.5 percent in 2018 (7.7 K/9 vs. 6.7), and his swinging-strike rate fell from 10.9 percent to 8.3 percent. His ground-ball rate of 53.7 percent, while well north of the league average, also represented a substantial step back from 2017’s 66.8 percent mark and from his overall career mark of 58.8 percent. All of that surely sets off some alarms for interested teams, but Keuchel was nevertheless a quality starter in 2018, as has been the case for several years. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference suggest he’s been worth 18 wins above replacement over the past five seasons — including a combined six or more WAR over his past two campaigns.

It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter, but as is always the case in free agency, the financial element plays a significant role. It seems quite likely that some clubs that had interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel early this winter balked at the duo’s reported nine-figure asking prices and went on to spend their money elsewhere. Now, even if those asking prices have come down, some previously interested teams may simply not have ownership permission to spend significant dollars on another free agent. Both pitchers also rejected qualifying offers, meaning a team signing either former All-Star would be subject to the forfeiture of at least one draft pick (and potentially some international bonus pool space).

It’ll be worth keeping an eye on injuries to prominent pitchers throughout the league in the coming days to see if a new window opens. Clayton Kershaw has been battling a shoulder issue, for instance. The Braves, as previously mentioned, have multiple starters who have been dealing with injuries thus far in camp. The Cardinals may be without Carlos Martinez to open the season. Further injuries will surely arise elsewhere, although the longer Keuchel and Kimbrel wait, the more questionable it is whether either will be ready to pitch in a big league game come Opening Day.

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