Baldelli: Twins “Bracing” For Possibility That Buxton Won’t Return In 2019
12:55pm: It “sounds like” Buxton is slated to undergo surgery this afternoon, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North 1500 AM.
12:25pm: The Twins have been playing without Byron Buxton in a full-time capacity since Aug. 1 thanks to a shoulder injury, and manager Rocco Baldelli indicated today on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that the organization is “bracing” for the news that Buxton won’t return in 2019 (Twitter link, with audio).
“Surgery is an option here,” said Baldelli after relaying that Buxton saw a specialist in California this week. “We’re basically sitting down and bracing for the realization that this could be his season ending right now. We basically are going to see what it looks like going forward. ‘Buck’ is an enormous part of what we do here. The contributions he makes on the field are fantastic, obviously — he’s one of the best defenders in the world. That being said, the energy he brings and the lift that he brings to the team is also huge.”
Buxton indeed ranks as one of the premier defenders in the sport, regardless of position. His 10 Defensive Runs Saved rank sixth among Major League center fielders despite having played fewer innings than anyone ahead of him, and his overall Ultimate Zone Rating (+8.8) ranks 10th among all fielders at any position. He also places fourth in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (+12) despite fewer chances than the three players ahead of him: Victor Robles, Kevin Kiermaier and Lorenzo Cain. Of course, the reckless abandon with which Buxton plays the outfield both contributes to his penchant for rangy, highlight-reel plays and puts him at greater risk for injury; his current shoulder subluxation was sustained when crashing into the center field wall at Marlins Park more than a month ago.
Beyond his defensive prowess, Buxton has enjoyed some pronounced improvement at the plate. In 295 plate appearances, he’s turned in a .262/.313/.513 slash with 10 home runs, 30 doubles, four triples and 14 stolen bases (in 17 attempts). Buxton’s speed has allowed him to rack up more doubles than singles (27) on the season, and his 23.1 percent strikeout rate is down nearly seven percent from a season ago. In all, he’s been worth 2.7 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, and 3.2 WAR, per Baseball-Reference, in less than a half season’s worth of plate appearances. Needless to say, his loss absence has been profoundly felt by the Twins.
If Buxton is indeed lost for the year, Baldelli suggests that Max Kepler will continue to man center field on a regular basis for Minnesota. That’s a drop-off from a defensive standpoint, but perhaps not to the extent one would think. Kepler has been strong in center himself this season (+4 DRS, +3.1 UZR in 452 innings), and he’s tied for 13th among 93 qualified outfielders with seven outs above average, per Statcast. Losing Buxton fotr the balance of the 2019 season and postseason would likely mean mixing and matching with Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez and LaMonte Wade Jr. in right field, with Eddie Rosario continuing as the primary left fielder.
Buxton’s bounceback season at the dish will surely benefit him in arbitration this winter, when he’ll be due for a raise on this year’s $1.75MM salary. However, his general lack of plate appearances and another season truncated by injury will also prevent him from maximizing his earnings in that process. The Twins control Buxton through the 2022 season.
Jonny Venters Will Try To Continue Pitching
No one would blame veteran left-hander Jonny Venters if he tapped out, so to speak, following last month’s shoulder surgery. The 34-year-old has already undergone three Tommy John surgeries and a fourth elbow procedure in his career, won 2018 Comeback Player of the Year honors, been named to an All-Star team and pitched in parts of three separate postseasons. Venters, though, in an excellent interview with Jesse Daugherty of the Washington Post, indicated that he plans to at least try to continue his career.
“I’ll probably give it all I can and hope for the best,” the lefty said roughly a month after his fifth major arm surgery. “And if it doesn’t [work out], we’ll figure something else out, you know?”
Venters’ latest procedure repaired a torn capsule in his left shoulder and will keep from throwing a baseball until at least December. He’ll assuredly have to sign a minor league contract somewhere in hopes of eventually proving himself capable of pitching on a big league mound once again, but the southpaw is surely accustomed to that sort of free-agent experience by now. He’s already signed four minor league contracts since undergoing his first major surgery.
Venters went more than a half decade between Major League appearances in 2012 and 2018, eventually working his way back from those four elbow surgeries to give the Rays and Braves 34 1/3 sharp innings last year. He’d arguably have been deserving of Comeback Player of the Year honors simply for getting back to a mound and appearing in 50 games — regardless of the results. It certainly didn’t hurt, however, that he not only capped off his near-miraculous return to the mound but picked back up as an effective bullpen piece; the tenacious lefty turned in a 3.67 ERA with a 27-to-16 K/BB ratio and a sky-high 69.1 percent grounder rate in that time.
The 2019 season clearly didn’t go as well for Venters. He walked eight men and served up three big flies through his first 4 2/3 innings before being released by the Braves, and his Nationals tenure was both brief and lackluster. He appeared in just three games for the Nats and allowed a pair of earned runs on three hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings.
Ozuna: Returning To Cardinals Is “My Priority”
Marcell Ozuna will be a free agent for the first time in his career this winter, but the slugging corner outfielder doesn’t sound eager to play elsewhere next season. Asked by Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about a possible return to the Cardinals in 2020 and beyond, Ozuna candidly replied: “That’s my priority. My agents just have to do their job.”
It’s not the first time that Ozuna has voiced a preference to remain with the Cardinals, but his most recent statements were more emphatic than previous comments on the matter. Hummel also chats with Ozuna about the excitement over his first pennant race before talking with Adam Wainwright about the team’s young arms, so Cards fans will want to check out the column in its entirety.
Ozuna will have age on his side in free agency, as he won’t turn 29 until November. He also may have rediscovered the pop he lost during a 2018 season that was marred by shoulder troubles; Ozuna slugged 37 homers with a .237 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) in 2017 but managed to connect on just 23 round-trippers with a .153 ISO in 2018. This year, he’s batted at a .255/.333/.496 clip with 26 home runs and a .241 ISO through 465 plate appearances (but missed time due to fractured fingers). He’s also walking at a career-best 10.4 percent clip and has swiped a career-best 12 bases in just 13 attempts.
The Cardinals (and other interested suitors) will be tasked with determining whether improved health in Ozuna’s shoulder led to that restored pop or whether the reemergence of his power stroke is more closely linked to changes to the composition of the 2019 baseball that have resulted in a league-wide home run boom. Both have probably contributed to some degree, but each team could figures to have a varying view on the extent to which each of those factors has impacted Ozuna’s output. Those opinions and projections will inform the strength of offers he receives on the open market.
Another critical factor for Ozuna will be draft-pick compensation, as it seems probable that the Cardinals will issue him a one-year qualifying offer. This year’s QO will fall around the $18MM mark, but Ozuna and his reps at MDR Sports Management will likely feel that a more substantial guarantee awaits in free agency (even if it’s not quite at such a hefty annual value). Ozuna’s $12.25MM salary for the 2019 season has pushed his career earnings north of $26MM, giving him plenty of financial security if and when he declines the QO and explores the open market. Ozuna checked in at No. 8 on the July update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings.
Of course, it takes two sides to make a deal, and looking at the situation from the Cardinals’ vantage point, it’s less clear that an Ozuna reunion will be a priority. Dexter Fowler is still owed $33MM through 2021 (including the annualized payouts of his deferred signing bonus), and his $82.5MM contract included full no-trade protection. As such, he’s unlikely to be moved and can be expected to hold down one of the outfield spots in 2020 with a fair degree of regularity. Meanwhile, 24-year-old slugger Tyler O’Neill seems ready for a legitimate audition in left field, even if his strikeout issues remain a concern. St. Louis also has one of the game’s premier defenders in center (Harrison Bader), one of the game’s best outfield prospects (Dylan Carlson) and a slew of utility options/part-time outfield options.
Re-signing Ozuna could allow president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch the opportunity to trade from that impressive crop of outfield talent, but there’s an easy argument that the Cards are better off taking the draft pick and allocating those financial resources elsewhere. Both Wainwright and Michael Wacha will be free agents at season’s end — Wacha tells Hummel he’d also like to return — and the bullpen has been an ongoing need in St. Louis despite considerable front-office efforts to improve it. The Cardinals already have $139MM committed to the 2020 season, not including modest first-time arbitration raises for righties John Gant and John Brebbia. This year’s payroll sits at roughly $165MM, so it’d certainly be defensible to see them forgo a weighty annual salary for Ozuna and spend their remaining dollars to bolster the pitching staff.
Lovullo: “Strong Chance” Weaver Returns In 2019
Luke Weaver hasn’t thrown a pitch for the D-backs since late May, when he was diagnosed with a forearm strain and a UCL injury, but the righty’s 2019 season isn’t necessarily over. Bill Ladson of MLB.com writes that Weaver is slated to throw a bullpen session later today, after which he could either toss a simulated game or pitch in a postseason game for a minor league affiliate. Most encouraging of all for D-backs fans is that Diamondbacks skipper Torey Lovullo tells Ladson he thinks there’s a “strong chance” Weaver will return to a big league mound in 2019.
It’s a welcome development for D-backs fans not only because some have feared that Weaver’s injury would culminate in surgery but also because the Diamondbacks have pulled themselves within two and a half games of the National League’s second Wild Card spot. With 18 games yet to play, they’re still a postseason underdog, but there’s a legitimate chance that they could find their way into a play-in game despite shipping Zack Greinke to the Astros in the final minutes of this year’s trading period. There’s also, apparently, a legitimate chance that Weaver will be able to impact that race and any subsequent postseason endeavors.
It seems unlikely that the Diamondbacks would be able to get Weaver stretched out sufficiently enough to resume his role as a conventional starter, but he could presumably work in shorter stints if he’s cleared to return. Given Robbie Ray‘s recent blister issues, some added bullpen depth would be of benefit to Lovullo in the final weeks. Arizona is currently carrying a whopping 12 relievers, so it’s not as if Lovullo is lacking options, but a healthy Weaver would be superior to the majority of said options — many of whom are unproven at the MLB level.
Weaver, 26, went to the Diamondbacks along with Carson Kelly, minor league utilityman Andy Young and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. While some fans were frustrated by the lack of a marquee prospect headlining the deal, both Weaver and Kelly were top-tier farmhands in St. Louis before debuting and were ready to step directly onto the roster. A strong 2019 showing for Kelly and terrific early results for Weaver have helped to justify that deal for the D-backs. In 62 1/3 innings prior to going on the injured list, Weaver pitched to a 3.03 ERA (3.10 FIP, 3.83 SIERA) with 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9 and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate. He’s controlled through the 2023 season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2020-21 offseason.
NL Notes: Thor, Mattingly, Panda, Padres
Though he has remained adamant about his desire to remain with the Mets, that doesn’t mean Noah Syndergaard is content with every aspect of his relationship with the team. Joel Sherman and Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reported today that the big righty has been displeased all season with throwing to primary catcher Wilson Ramos, preferring instead reserve Tomas Nido (or perhaps third-stringer Rene Rivera). Thor’s wrath has spawned a full-blown BatteryMateGate involving lengthy internal meetings and multiple engagements with the media. Ultimately, Mets manager Mickey Callaway and GM Brodie Van Wagenen explained that the club has to take into account more than the preferences of a given pitcher. In addition to being highly compensated and well-respected, Ramos is one of the team’s best hitters. While none of the organizational leaders cracked the whip on the star hurler, they didn’t indicate any inclination to bend on the topic. Callaway put it in particularly blunt terms: “You can’t make everybody happy and it’s not about making guys happy. It’s about winning at this point.” Whether this matter will carry over into the future, if not even impact Syndergaard’s long-term status in New York, remains to be seen.
More from the National League …
- Expectations of a rough season for the Marlins have been fulfilled in full, though there have been some bright spots along the way. With relatively few trade pieces in the stable, it may be a fairly quiet offseason in Miami. But one area that is sure to receive attention is the coaching staff. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides some updates on the status of skipper Don Mattingly, who still hasn’t received any indication of the organization’s intentions. It seems that there’s a legitimate chance Mattingly will be retained, though the team may not want to pay him at or over his current $2.5MM salary. Plus, as the veteran baseball man notes, it’s not just a one-way street. Mattingly says he expects discussions to occur with some rapidity.
- It seems that Giants infielder Pablo Sandoval will have more to recover from than your standard-issue Tommy John procedure. As Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter link), Sandoval says that his doctors found damage beyond what they anticipated when they opened his elbow. The precise details of the work that was done, and how it’ll impact his recovery, aren’t yet known. Sandoval will head to the open market at the conclusion of the season. The 33-year-old’s season-ending procedure will limit his marketability, but he did turn in a strong showing with 296 plate appearances of .268/.313/.507 hitting and 14 home runs.
- The Padres continue to feature numerous possibilities and numerous questions in their outfield mix, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes. The certainties? Per Cassavall, Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe can be written into the lineup for 2020 … on the short side of the platoon, at least. Needless to say, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of stability. Wil Myers, Josh Naylor, Franchy Cordero, Travis Jankowski, and Nick Martini represent options, but only that. It’s possible to imagine any number of possible roster maneuvers over the course of the coming winter; it’s equally plausible that most or all of the existing slate of candidates will simply do battle in camp.
Tony Watson Diagnosed With Fractured Wrist
Giants southpaw Tony Watson has been diagnosed with a slight fracture in the wrist of his pitching hand, per a club announcement (via MLB.com’s Maria Guardado, on Twitter). He’ll be sidelined for at least ten days, with the remainder of his season in jeopardy.
With the San Francisco organization falling precipitously in the standings, it’s no big deal to go without Watson the rest of the way. That said, it’s still a suboptimal development — particularly given that it’s the latest in a run of changes to what was once a high-quality relief unit.
Watson, 34, has thrown 54 innings of 4.33 ERA ball this year, with 6.8 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9. His 12.7% swinging-strike rate is right in the same range it usually is, as is his 93.5 mph average heater.
If there’s an oddity to Watson’s season statistics, it’s his struggles against lefties. While he has never been a pure LOOGY, Watson has historically performed better when facing same-handed hitters. This year, opposing southpaw swingers have tuned him up for a .359/.414/.500 slash — though that’s only a 71-batter sample.
The injury will not have an impact on earnings, at least directly. Watson’s unusually structured contract included loads of bonuses, topping out at his 55th appearance. Having already reached that mark, he’s slated to take home an extra $4MM on top of his $6.5MM base salary (itself boosted by his effort in 2018).
Ending the campaign on the injured list could conceivably increase the allure of the $2.5MM player option that Watson holds, though it still seems reasonably likely he’ll instead take a $500K buyout and re-test free agency. He might have boosted his open-market stock with a strong final month, though Watson does have a long track record to stand on.
Javier Baez Unlikely To Return In September
The Cubs announced today that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez likely won’t be able to return to the field of play this month, with ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers among those covering the news on Twitter. He’s planning to rehab his hairline thumb fracture in hopes of being ready for some or all of the postseason.
The news is obviously disappointing, if not unexpected given recent developments. That said, it’s promising that the examination by a specialist did not result in the identification of any damage to thumb ligaments.
Going without Baez undoubtedly hurts the Cubs, who are still trying to chase down the Cardinals in the NL Central while holding off challengers for the final Wild Card spot. With Addison Russell also sidelined, the club was forced to dip into its minor-league system and call up top prospect Nico Hoerner today.
While Baez won’t be able to help the Cubs make it into the postseason, it seems there’s still hope he’ll return to action if they do qualify. His progress, therefore, remains of keen interest even though it doesn’t seem there’s any cause for long-term worry.
Cubs Designate Randy Rosario
The Cubs have designated Randy Rosario, per a club announcement (h/t Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, on Twitter). That’s the corresponding move for the previously reported promotion of top prospect Nico Hoerner.
In other news, the club has recalled James Norwood and optioned fellow righty Adbert Alzolay. Indications are that the club decided that Alzolay had thrown enough innings — just over eighty at all levels — on the heels of an injury-limited 2018 season. While there was no need to utilize the option to create active roster space, that’ll hit pause on Alzolay’s service clock.
Rosario, 25, had turned in good results for the Chicago organization in 2018, albeit with less-than-promising peripherals. The groundball-oriented southpaw ended up spending the bulk of the present campaign at Triple-A. Through 59 2/3 total innings at the MLB level, Rosario carries a 5.13 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 along with a 53.6% groundball rate.
Mike Trout Day To Day After Foot Procedure
6:07pm: Trout isn’t likely to be sidelined for more than a few days, but may require further offseason medical care to address the foot issue, per skipper Brad Ausmus (via Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group, on Twitter). There’s no concern that playing out the year will cause greater harm.
5:52pm: Angels superstar Mike Trout has undergone a cryoablation procedure on his right foot to “address a neuroma,” per a club announcement. He’s considered day-to-day.
In plain English, the procedure froze some nerve tissue that had been causing pain in or around Trout’s right toe. It is not entirely clear at this point how long the center fielder will be sidelined, but it seems that his own pain tolerance will largely dictate the recovery schedule.
All indications are that this non-invasive approach will not be much of a short or long-term limitation on the game’s greatest player. Medical literature suggests it can take a full month for such a procedure to be fully effective, but that full resumption of activity is possible within a few days.
The Halos will surely exercise caution, lest their franchise icon somehow come down with a more significant malady. Barring a surprise development, the procedure shouldn’t even ding Trout’s chances at securing an American League MVP award. (It’s no surprise that he’s easily pacing all of baseball with 8.7 fWAR to this point.)
Mike Tauchman Out Six To Eight Weeks With Grade 2 Calf Strain
The Yankees have lost outfielder Mike Tauchman for the remainder of the regular season and quite likely for the entirety of the postseason. The team announced to reporters that Tauchman has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 calf strain (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
Initial indications are that Tauchman will be sidelined for the next six to eight weeks. That spells big trouble for his hopes of being a part of the Yankees’ postseason roster. It’s theoretically possible that Tauchman could be ready if the club makes it into the World Series, but it seems likelier that he won’t suit up again this season.
If this is the last we’ve seen of Tauchman in 2019, his last impression was a good one. Tauchman was two-for-two before departing last night, bringing his season-long batting line to a hefty .277/.361/.504 slash with 13 home runs over 296 plate appearances. That’s stunning production from a player who was acquired late in Spring Training when he became a Rockies roster casualty.
It’s fair to ask whether Tauchman’s output is sustainable. We did just that in early August, and he responded by ripping off another strong month at the plate. While there’s still cause for some wariness, there’s also little doubt that Tauchman deserves to enter camp in 2020 with a presumption of an active roster spot. (It’s worth noting that he’ll be out of options.) Whether or not that’ll be with the Yanks remains to be seen; the Bronx Bombers could take any number of different directions in compiling their outfield unit over the offseason to come.