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The Overlooked Pirate

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Andrew McCutchen was the face of the franchise during his time with the Pirates, one of their best players ever, but it became obvious a couple years back they’d have to trade him. Entering 2018, McCutchen’s final year of team control, the low-budget Pirates knew they weren’t going to extend the outfielder. Consequently, Pittsburgh traded McCutchen to San Francisco for two prospects – right-hander Kyle Crick and outfielder Bryan Reynolds – as well as $500K in international bonus pool space. Crick debuted first with the Pirates and has been a quality piece of their bullpen, but Reynolds has been even an more impressive major leaguer thus far.

Reynolds was a 2016 second-round pick of the Giants who ranked among their top five prospects when they traded him for McCutchen. At the time, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said of Reynolds: “Bryan is an effective offensive player that also plays quality defense. We look forward to working with Bryan to maximize his tools and help him become a quality well-rounded Major League player who can impact a game in many ways beyond his quality bat.”

That sounds right up to now. Since the Pirates promoted Reynolds to their roster April 20, the 24-year-old has slashed a tremendous .354/.407/.563 (157 wRC+) with five home runs in 171 plate appearances. As a member of the Pirates’ outfield, he has accounted for three Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-0.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in 335 innings divided between left and center. The package has been worth 1.7 fWAR, making Reynolds one of the most valuable first-year players in baseball. If not for Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., there would be far more NL Rookie of the Year buzz centering on Reynolds.

Many a rookie has fizzled after a blazing start, though, so it’s worth checking into the odds of Reynolds continuing to post above-average production going forward. The switch-hitting Reynolds was a .312/.373/.472 batter in 1,217 minor league plate appearances, which augurs well, though all but 57 of those attempts came in Double-A ball or lower. Reynolds always ran high batting averages on balls in play in the minors, but his .439 BABIP as a Pirate flat-out isn’t going to sustain itself. It ranks first in the league among those who have totaled at least 170 PA this year. Reynolds is on pace to accrue upward of 400 trips to the plate this season. Of hitters who amassed at least that many a year ago, no one put up a BABIP better than .375.

Going solely by BABIP, Reynolds’ production is going to fall. Reynolds also appears unlikely to keep up his .210 isolated power, considering it never rose above .188 during extended looks in the minors (and that occurred during a low-A stint in 2010). He’s also hitting the plurality of batted balls on the ground, which doesn’t bode well for power. That said, all hope isn’t lost for Reynolds. According to Statcast, Reynolds ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected slugging percentage (.439; 53rd percentile), weighted-on base average (.347; 62nd percentile), average exit velocity (90.1 mph; 69th percentile), sprint speed (73rd percentile), hard-hit percentage (47.4; 88th percentile) and expected batting average (.300; 92nd percentile).

So, while Reynolds’ .412 weighted on-base average ranks 14th in the league and puts him a few points above Nolan Arenado, he’s not that good. Reynolds’ xwOBA sits 55 points lower than his xwOBA, though it still places him a point or two above household names such as Alex Gordon, DJ LeMahieu and Jose Altuve. Like LeMahieu, Reynolds walks at a slightly below-average clip (7.5 percent). Meanwhile, Reynolds’ strikeout percentage (22.2) is a tad above average. Combining the two numbers makes Reynolds an average performer in terms of K/BB ratio. And the fact that Reynolds hasn’t yet shown any vulnerability from either side of the plate only makes him a more appealing offensive piece.

Reynolds’ bottom-line production through almost two months of his major league career paint him as a budding star. A peek under the hood suggests he’s not there yet, but Reynolds does look like a legitimate building block for the Pirates. He and Crick are amounting to a nice return for one year of control over McCutchen, whom the Pirates weren’t going to bring back. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team that doesn’t appear to have made out that well in sending Gerrit Cole, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow away in other key trades dating back to January 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Place Heath Hembree On IL

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The Red Sox announced this evening that reliever Heath Hembree is going on the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with a “right elbow extensor strain.”

It had been hoped that the injury wouldn’t force an IL stint, but evidently Hembree is going to need a bit of time on ice to let things heal up. Lefty Josh Taylor will take the open roster spot but won’t be able to step into Hembree’s important setup role.

Hembree has been a key stabilizing force in a Boston bullpen that has had some difficulties at times. He’s through 28 2/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball thus far on the year.

While his peripherals don’t quite support those results, Hembree is a solid performer by most measures. He owns 11.0 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. Hembree’s swinging-strike rate sits at 14+% for the third-straight season. So long as he can keep the ball in the yard — the extreme flyball pitcher is allowing 1.26 per nine on a 9.5% HR/FB rate to this point — he ought to be a quality piece.

If Hembree just needs a brief respite, this doesn’t figure to pose much of a problem. The Red Sox can hope to have him back in short order, well in advance of what could be a tricky deadline period. But if his recovery drags, it’ll only add to the bullpen questions — and broader strategic dilemma — that the organization faces this summer.

Royals Option Ryan O’Hearn, Recall Jorge Bonifacio

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The Royals announced today that they have optioned first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by outfielder Jorge Bonifacio.

It’s a somewhat disappointing moment for an organization that needs all the bright spots it can get. O’Hearn came out of nowhere in 2018, slashing a whopping .262/.353/.597 and popping a dozen long balls over 213 plate appearances. That didn’t really line up with his upper-minors numbers, leaving cause for skepticism, but the K.C. club was undoubtedly hopeful it had stumbled onto a gem.

Things just haven’t gone as hoped thus far in 2019. O’Hearn has maintained an 11+% walk rate and even slightly lowered his strikeout rate to 24.4%, but his power has fallen off a cliff. Through 213 plate appearances, he has hit half as many dingers as he did last year and has seen sharp declines in barrel percent and exit velocity. The result is less than half the isolated power mark he posted in 2018 (.336 versus .145).

The Royals provided O’Hearn with ample leash but ultimately had to make a move. While he tries to figure things out at Triple-A, veteran slugger Lucas Duda will try to find his own groove in the majors. If Duda can take advantage of steadier playing time, he could yet be a trade piece for the Royals.

As for Bonifacio, this isn’t exactly a case of a former top prospect forcing his way back into the picture. The once-hyped 26-year-old disappointed in the majors last year and hasn’t responded thus far in 2019. After a brutal winter league showing, he has started the current campaign with 240 plate appearances of .195/.250/.395 hitting at Omaha. It seems the plan is to use him as a gap-filler while Hunter Dozier works back from the injured list.

David Freese: Red Hot

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David Freese is best known for one small stretch of baseball – the 2011 World Series – in which his .348/.464/.696 slash in 28 plate appearances helped lead the Cardinals to a title and earn him World Series MVP honors. However, as great as Freese was during the Cardinals’ triumph over the Rangers seven years ago, he’s no one-hit wonder. Freese has been a solid major leaguer since his career began in 2009, evidenced by his .276/.351/.422 line (115 wRC+) with 110 home runs and 19.9 fWAR with the Cards, Angels, Pirates and Dodgers. Now 36 years old, Freese isn’t showing any serious signs of slowing down.

With the Pirates out of contention at the end of last August and facing Freese’s impending trip to free agency, they traded him to the Dodgers. Los Angeles was enamored enough of Freese, who thrived with the club over a small sample last season, that it re-signed him to a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee almost immediately after its World Series loss to Boston. Seven months later, it’s looking like a fantastic decision on the Dodgers’ part.

A third baseman for most of his career, Freese has essentially been a first base-only option for the Dodgers this year. From an offensive standpoint, first is one of the most demanding positions in the game, and Freese has handled it with aplomb. The right-handed hitter has  batted an eyebrow-raising .308/.419/.635 with eight home runs and a .327 ISO through 124 plate appearances, pulverizing both same- and left-handed pitchers along the way. Of hitters who have come to the plate at least 120 times this year, Freese’s 177 wRC+ ranks fifth.

Is Freese this good? Considering what he has done over the life of his career, no. However, the veteran has made real strides in his advanced age. His 16.1 percent walk rate is nearly twice his lifetime figure, while his strikeout percentage (21.8) is down a bit relative to his career. At the same time, Freese is making far more hard contact and less soft contact than usual, according to FanGraphs, and putting the ball more in the air and less on the ground than he has in any other season. His 10.2-degree launch angle is far above his usual norm, per Statcast. All of that’s a recipe for added power. Interestingly, Freese is hitting to the opposite field more, though it certainly hasn’t led to a decrease in meaningful contact.

Freese’s .348 batting average on balls in play indicates good fortune has been on his side, especially for a slow runner, but it’s not a bloated figure in his case. He has posted a .343 lifetime BABIP, after all. On the other hand, Freese’s .442 weighted on-base average – which sits third in the majors – definitely isn’t going to hold. However, his .395 expected wOBA sits 17th and isn’t indicative of a player who’s at high risk of seeing his production crash to Earth.

Freese may no longer be an everyday player, but unlike most major leaguers in their late 30s, he remains a valuable contributor. Not only could Freese help the title-contending Dodgers to a World Series in 2019, but it appears he’ll encounter a fair amount of interest in free agency in the offseason. That’s if the Dodgers don’t re-sign him first, of course.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Daniel Espino

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The Indians have agreed to a $2.5MM bonus with first-round choice Daniel Espino, according to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). He was selected with the 24th overall pick, which came with a $2.83MM slot allocation.

Espino is a right-handed hurler who’ll launch his pro career after wrapping up his high school tenure in Georgia. He was selected just about where most pundits valued him. MLB.com and ESPN.com’s Keith Law both placed him in the 23rd slot, while Baseball America had him at #25.

Many see limitless upside in Espino’s powerful right arm, particularly since he shows promising secondary stuff. But there’s also quite a lot of risk in his profile: an exceptionally hard-throwing high-schooler who lacks a big frame or pristine mechanics. The Fangraphs prospect crew rated him 33rd overall, even while acknowledging the potentially massive value.

Cody Anderson Undergoes Surgery On Flexor Tendon

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Indians righty Cody Anderson has undergone surgery to repair an injury to his flexor tendon, manager Terry Francona told reporters including MLB.com’s Mandy Bell (via Twitter). It is not yet clear how long he’ll be sidelined.

It’s the latest bad news for Anderson, who has managed only 69 2/3 MLB innings since a promising debut showing back in 2015. He took a long road back from Tommy John surgery and finally seemed to be back at health this year.

Though he was able to get back to professional pitching, sitting at 95 mph with his fastball, Anderson had struggled prior to the renewed arm problems. He was tagged for nine earned runs in 8 2/3 MLB innings. In 23 2/3 frames over six Triple-A starts, he carried a 4.56 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.

Anderson is earning $641,500 on an arbitration deal, so it’s not a huge financial loss for the club. But it is another dent in the club’s rotation depth, which has already been tested quite a bit to this stage of the season.

Fortunately, some of the team’s stars are beginning to filter back. Mike Clevinger returned sooner than anticipated from the IL. And Corey Kluber is making progress in his own rehab, as Bell also tweets, though he’s still limited to strengthening exercises and remains a long ways off from the majors.

Seranthony Dominguez Will Attempt To Rehab UCL Injury

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Phillies righty Seranthony Dominguez has avoided Tommy John surgery — for the time being, at least. He instead will rehab through an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament after receiving a platelet-rich plasma treatment, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports on Twitter.

Dominguez is expected to receive four to six weeks of rest before trying to ramp back up. That means he could have a ball in his hand by late July, potentially making him an option down the stretch for the Phils.

It’s promising to hear that this course of treatment was recommended. Dominguez headed out to Dr. James Andrews expecting the worst, but “hoping for a miracle.” He’ll still need to respond well to treatment and avoid further injury, but it seems he’ll have a shot at avoiding TJS and its year-plus rehabilitation timeline.

The news provides another glimmer of hope for a Philadelphia relief unit that has been racked by injury. The team won’t be able to assume much of anything regarding Dominguez, and will surely be on the hunt for relief additions this summer regardless, but it should have some sense whether Dominguez is likely to be a late-season option while it weighs deadline moves.

Pirates To Select Dario Agrazal

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The Pirates will select the contract of righty Dario Agrazal, per a club announcement. He has been tapped to start the club’s game tomorrow.

Agrazal was added to the Pittsburgh 40-man roster in the fall of 2017, but lost his spot this January. He remained in the organization after clearing waivers.

With the Bucs struggling to fill innings, Agrazal will now receive his first shot at the majors. He has pitched to a 3.27 ERA in 74 1/3 upper minors innings thus far in 2019, carrying 7.0 K/9 against 1.2 BB/9.

Marlins Place Jose Urena On 60-Day IL

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3:14pm: An MRI revealed a herniated disc in Urena’s back, Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel was among those to tweet.

1:07pm: Marlins right Jose Urena is hitting the shelf for the foreseeable future, with the club announcing that he’s going to the 60-day injured list. Urena is said to be dealing with a left lower back strain.

It’s a bit of a surprising turn of events for the starting pitcher, who had been scheduled to start on Wednesday before hitting the 10-day IL. At the time, there wasn’t much indication that he’d be sidelined for a lengthy stretch. The injury is evidently more severe than is apparent from the basic description of a lower back issue.

Given the timing, Urena won’t be eligible to return from the IL until mid-August. That all but eliminates him as a summer trade target. The 27-year-old hadn’t been in top form, with a 4.70 ERA in 74 2/3 innings, but he turned in consecutive sub-4.00 ERA campaigns in the prior two seasons. With his steady mid-to-upper nineties fastball velocity, Urena could have been an interesting swingman for the right contender.

Urena is earning $3.2MM this year as a 3+ service-class arbitration player. That leaves two more arb-eligible campaigns to come. The injury will sap his ability to procure a significant raise next fall, so it’s still plausible to imagine the Marlins tendering him a contract. Whether that’ll be a sensible approach will depend upon Urena’s recovery and showing upon his return,

This move represents the corresponding 40-man roster transaction for the club’s previously reported decision to select the contract of Yadiel Rivera. He’ll help fill in for Martin Prado while the veteran infielder is sidelined.

Rangers Acquire Jake Petricka

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The Rangers have struck a deal with the Brewers for reliever Jake Petricka, per a club announcement. Cash or a player to be named later will go back in return. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the news (via Twitter).

Petricka, 31, signed a MLB deal with a minor-league split salary. He is optionable this season but was outrighted off of the Milwaukee 40-man roster. The Rangers have assigned Petricka to Triple-A to begin his tenure with the organization.

While he allowed only three earned runs in his eight frames of big-league action with the Brewers, Petricka managed only three strikeouts to go with six walks. He has been much better during his time at Triple-A, where he carries a 1.89 ERA with a 22:4 K/BB ratio over 19 innings.

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