Scott Boras On Potential Josh Bell Extension
All-Star first baseman Josh Bell has broken through as the Pirates’ franchise player this season, his last pre-arbitration campaign. Considering the 26-year-old’s days of making league-minimum money are on the verge of ending, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette asked agent Scott Boras on Monday if Bell would have interest in signing a contract extension with the Pirates. Unless the Pirates are willing to make an expensive long-term commitment, it doesn’t seem as if it’s going to happen.
“Pittsburgh really doesn’t have a history of giving star player contracts yet,” Boras told Mackey. “Maybe they will someday. They’ve had a history of signing players before they’ve evolved into stars.”
In Boras’ estimation, the Pirates haven’t shown a willingness “to go out and invest in a great young player for a long time,” though he didn’t rule out an eventual change in policy on the franchise’s end.
Pittsburgh has still never doled out a guaranteed contract greater than the $60MM it handed catcher Jason Kendall on an extension in 2000. The team has since extended several other players it viewed as cornerstones – including Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Felipe Vazquez in recent years – to deals geared toward cancelling out the arbitration process and as many free-agent seasons as possible.
The Pirates haven’t gotten hurt on any of the McCutchen, Marte, Polanco and Vazquez deals, and they especially struck gold in signing McCutchen. The club inked McCutchen, then 25, to a six-year, $51MM guarantee entering the 2012 season, at which point he was coming off his first of five straight All-Star campaigns. McCutchen’s pact bought out his final pre-arbitration season, all three of his arbitration years, two free-agent years and included a $14.5MM club option for 2018. The Pirates ultimately exercised that option, though McCutchen spent the final year of his contract with the Giants and Yankees after a trade out of Pittsburgh. Still, he was among the majors’ top players on his ultra-affordable contract – including during an MVP-winning season in 2013 – and wound up as one of the best, most revered players in the history of the Pirates.
While Bell has taken the torch from McCutchen as the face of the franchise, the Pirates would be hard-pressed to lock up the former to such a team-friendly deal. The Pirates would likely love to do that, but their low-budget ways don’t sit well with Boras, who told Mackey: “The Pirates are making a lot of money. The revenue structure of this game, you can go back and look at 2003 or ‘04, they’re probably making $100 million more than they did back then. Yet their payroll is within $20 million of where it was back then. The ability to do it is not the question. It’s the model, the choice of what they want.”
Boras isn’t wrong, as Mackey points out. The Pirates’ Opening Day payroll has climbed by just $20MM (from $54.8MM to $74.8MM) dating back to 2003. Over the same span, though, their listed revenue has skyrocketed from $109MM to $254MM. That increase didn’t lead to the Pirates keeping one of their prior high-profile Boras clients, right-hander Gerrit Cole, whom they traded to the Astros before the 2018 season. Cole was going into his second-last year of arbitration eligibility at the time.
It’s obviously too soon to write off Bell as a soon-to-be ex-Pirate. However, if the Pirates don’t present the slugger a long-term offer that at least surpasses (perhaps obliterates) the Kendall contract, keeping him in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future may not be in the cards. For now, Bell’s on track to head to arbitration on the heels of what will go down as a career year. Having slashed .302/.376/.648 (152 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 388 plate appearances this season, Boras believes Bell “has identified himself” as one of the game’s elite players and someone “every franchise would like to have.”
Report: Yankees “Historically Have Liked” Robbie Ray
At 46-45, Arizona is among a slew of clubs with realistic playoff hopes in the wide-open National League. Just 1 1/2 games back of wild-card position, the Diamondbacks don’t look like surefire sellers with the July 31 trade deadline three-plus weeks ago. Should that change, though, the Diamondbacks could have an attractive trade chip in starter Robbie Ray. The Yankees are among teams that “historically have liked” the left-hander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported (subscription required).
Now 27 years old, Ray was already a piece in a trade featuring the Yankees earlier in his career. As part of a three-team deal in December 2014, the Diamondbacks acquired Ray from the Tigers, the Yankees got shortstop Didi Gregorius from the D-backs and the Tigers picked up righty Shane Greene from New York. Ray has since turned into one of the majors’ greatest strikeout artists among starters, having posted the league’s third-highest K/9 (11.14) dating back to his first season in Arizona. Shaky control (4.09 BB/9) has helped prevent Ray from limiting runs at an ace-level rate, though the 3.86 ERA and 3.85 FIP he has put up in 692 1/3 innings as a Diamondback are still respectable.
The 2019 version of Ray has offered production in line with his career totals. Over 104 2/3 frames, the slider-heavy Ray owns a 3.96 ERA/4.05 FIP with 11.78 K/9 (fifth in the game) and a 13.7 percent swinging-strike rate (12th). On the negative side, Ray’s velocity has dipped compared to last year, and though his walk rate has fallen from 5.09 per nine to 4.64 since then, it remains unpalatable. Ray has also yielded home runs on upward of 15 percent of fly balls for the fourth consecutive year, in part because his groundball rate checks in just under 40 percent for the second straight season. Moreover, as Rosenthal notes, Ray has never been known as a workhorse who lasts deep into games. He has only amassed 30 or more starts once, in 2016, and has averaged well under six frames per outing in his career.
Ray does have his flaws, but no team would expect to land an ace in acquiring him. The club would instead be under the impression it’s trading for one-plus year of a solid, affordable starter. Ray is making a reasonable $6.05MM this year and in his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility – facts that only add to his appeal for the D-backs and other teams.
World Series-contending New York has been on the lookout for starters for weeks and could use an ace in light of Luis Severino‘s ongoing injury problems. However, the team might struggle to find a true No. 1 starter from elsewhere this summer. The Indians may part with Trevor Bauer, who has landed on the Yankees’ radar, though he hasn’t consistently resembled his ace-caliber 2018 self. Along with Ray and Bauer, the Yankees have shown reported interest in the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (link), the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner and the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman (links here). For the most part, that group pales in comparison to a healthy Severino. Nevertheless, each of those starters would seemingly help a Yankees rotation that – despite the team’s AL-best 57-31 record – hasn’t received front-line production from anyone.
Looking beyond this season, the Yankees will lose the retiring CC Sabathia, which could make Ray or anyone else under control past 2019 an even more logical fit. Severino will at least be back next year (barring something catastrophic), though, and Jordan Montgomery could return from June 2018 Tommy John surgery by then. James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German and the struggling J.A. Happ comprise the rest of the Yankees’ experienced starters who are currently slated to stick around in 2020.
Latest On Trevor Bauer
10:38pm: There’s interest “around the block” in Bauer, one official told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Astros “are said to be among the most interested,” Sherman writes. Houston has questions in its rotation now beyond Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, and Verlander is the lone member of the trio who’s under contract past this season. Bauer would somewhat help cover for the potential exits of Cole and Miley in 2020.
6:25pm: The Indians face an interesting potential dilemma — and opportunity — with regard to starter Trevor Bauer. Even as they continue to ramp up the pressure on the AL Central-leading Twins and remain in Wild Card position, the Cleveland organization may consider swapping out the excellent but costly right-hander.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterizes the Cleveland organization as “aggressive listeners” when it comes to Bauer (audio link via Twitter; further discussion via subscription link). That’s an understandable position for the organization to take. After all, any deal would have to both respect the team’s immediate prospects for contention and represent a significant boost to the future outlook.
There’s ample long-term uncertainty between the Indians and Bauer. He’s earning $13MM this year and promises to take down another significant raise on top of that (particularly after twice defeating the club in an arbitration hearing). It will likely be difficult for the team to afford him in 2020. Beyond that, Bauer has made clear for some time now that he intends to head onto the open market and sign a string of one-year contracts. Even if the Indians want to retain him, they’ll need to top quite a few other potential bidders.
That said, there isn’t exactly immediate pressure to do a deal. If the Indians are determined not to hang onto Bauer next season, they can still certainly move him over the offseason. Having already skimped on salary entering this season and run into a surprisingly stiff challenge from Minnesota, the Indians will surely hesitate to draw away too much present ability from the MLB roster. And the rotation is in greater need than might have been anticipated due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. While each is expected to return, it remains to be seen whether either can make it back to top form this season.
If there’s room for a deal, it surely involves a scenario in which the Indians are able to acquire high-quality, MLB-ready position-player talent. There are quite a few marginal offensive performers on the roster at present, leaving ample room to improve. It’s not altogether impossible to imagine a trade coming together, particularly if the Indians can find a partner with a bit of a surplus to work with in the right areas. But this was all largely true over the offseason, when the Cleveland front office explored but did not consummate deals involving its slate of starters.
The obvious connection to be made here is between the Indians and Yankees. The New York outfit needs starters and just so happens to possess an excess young slugger that was once a top performer on the Cleveland farm. But Rosenthal reiterates (as he has suggested previously) that the Yanks don’t want to move Clint Frazier for a quality starter who comes with another season of control. The staying power of that stance seems a bit dubious — if the New York organization was really so convinced of the 24-year-old’s abilities with the bat, it probably wouldn’t have been so eager to displace him from the 2019 roster — but it remains the prevailing characterization of the situation.
That’s not to say the Yankees aren’t interested in Bauer, a 28-year-old hurler who hasn’t been quite as excellent as he was last year but nevertheless paces the American League with 132 frames and carries a strong 3.61 ERA. To the contrary, Rosenthal says that NYY scouting guru Tim Naehring watched Bauer’s most recent outing. As Andy Martino of SNY.tv notes, that’s not necessarily an overly momentous occurrence, though there’s little doubt the Yankees were glad to have a close look at Bauer.
If the Indians do indeed crank up the volume on their headphones and bust out the air guitar for a truly aggressive listening session, they’ll no doubt want to check out some other artists beyond the Bronx Bombers. Quite a few other contenders would no doubt prefer to pay a bit more for Bauer than to give up a haul for a true rental pitcher. In addition to the extra season of control, which could fill a rotation need for next season or be cashed back in via trade, a new team might reasonably anticipate recouping draft compensation in the future by extending a qualifying offer.
Poll: Disappointing National League Teams
It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.
With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.
Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers, have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.
The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland‘s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.
Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.
The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.
In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?
(Poll link for app users)
Which NL team has been the biggest disappointment so far?
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Mets 28% (4,894)
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Phillies 24% (4,260)
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Cardinals 20% (3,564)
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Cubs 17% (3,018)
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Brewers 6% (1,139)
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Rockies 3% (535)
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Other 1% (242)
Total votes: 17,652
Latest On Market For Madison Bumgarner
We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.
The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.
All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.
Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).
Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).
As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.
The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.
Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.
Scott Boras On Possibility Of Anthony Rendon Extension
While quiet Nationals star Anthony Rendon elected not to participate in this year’s All-Star festivities — somehow the first time he has been selected — his less-than-taciturn agent was on hand and willing to discuss Rendon’s contract situation. As Todd Dybas of NBC Sports reports, Scott Boras certainly did not sound like a man who was close to wrapping up a contract for his client.
Engagement between the Nats and Rendon/Boras has seemingly been sporadic. There was an apparent uptick in activity recently, with Boras present in D.C. and reports indicating that the sides were negotiating in earnest. But the super-agent doused that flame, explaining: “I go to a lot of ballparks. It doesn’t mean we’re investing into anything that’s relevant to contract terms.”
Boras was content to press the obvious leverage he has gained over recent months. The mammoth Nolan Arenado extension removed a major market competitor and set a big price for top third-base talent before the season, with the surprisingly light Xander Bogaerts contract providing only a meager counterweight in terms of precedent. Rendon has since ramped up his already sterling resume to the point that Boras now has trouble embellishing. (Not that he wasn’t willing to dabble, labeling Rendon a “superstar” and at least hinting at a partial comparison to the peerless Mike Trout.)
A few choice quotes hint at Boras’s stance vis-a-vis a Nationals organization he has dealt with frequently:
- “I think [Rendon’s] focused on the season.”
- “I don’t know what their diagnostics are, but we’ll see as we approach the offseason.”
- “It’s really in their corner as to how we go from there.”
- “Ted and the Lerner family, and the organization, we’ve always worked out things — usually.” (an under-the-radar, instant Boras classic)
The takeaway is clear, if already obvious to the familiar Nats: Rendon’s camp is in the driver’s seat and in no rush to make a deal. Convincing him to forego a run at a market that’ll be mostly devoid of other top talent will take a major payday — one that the team may ultimately be willing to post. If there’s an ace in the hole for D.C., beyond its familiarity to Rendon, it may simply be that it’s the only place the reserved 29-year-old can line up his future without an attention-grabbing foray into free agency.
This Date In Transactions History: Athletics Land An Eventual Superstar
Braves third baseman Josh Donaldson smacked his 200th career home run Sunday, a feat the Cubs were no doubt hoping he’d achieve in their uniform when they selected him 48th in the 2007 draft. The former Auburn Tiger never hit a single dinger for the club, though, and changed organizations a little over 12 months after the Cubs drafted him. It was exactly 11 years ago today, on July 8, 2008, that Chicago dealt Donaldson to Oakland. It’s now safe to say the Donaldson pickup has been among the best of A’s executive Billy Beane’s impressive tenure with the franchise.
Beane sent veteran right-handers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to the Cubs, acquiring Donaldson, outfielders Eric Patterson and Matt Murton, and righty Sean Gallagher in return. When the deal was consummated, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted it was the Cubs’ counterattack after the NL Central rival Brewers acquired lefty CC Sabathia from the Indians the day before.
Sabathia just about willed the Brewers to the playoffs in 2008, though the eventual World Series champion Phillies overmatched them in the NLDS. The Cubs did finish well ahead of the Brewers en route to an NL Central crown that season, but they also fell in the NLDS, losing in a sweep against the Dodgers. While Harden struggled during his lone start in that series, the oft-injured hurler was highly effective for the Cubs when he was healthy enough to take the mound. All told, he turned in 38 starts and 212 innings of 3.31 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 as a Cub before leaving for the Rangers in free agency ahead of the 2010 season. Gaudin was nowhere near that productive, logging a 6.26 ERA in 27 1/3 innings with Chicago. He exited via free agency going into the 2009 campaign.
Both Hardin and Gaudin (especially the former) were useful A’s, but the team said goodbye to them despite possessing a 49-41 record at the time. Oakland was six behind the first-place Angels in the AL West and, in an era in which only one team earned a wild card, 3 1/2 back of a playoff spot. Beane insisted at the time it wasn’t a white flag move by Oakland, but the club fell apart thereafter and finished 75-86. However, Beane did say then, “I think we’ve taken a step forward for the next three to five years.”
It took a little longer than Beane wanted for the swap to bear fruit for the Athletics, though. None of Patterson, Murton or Gallagher amounted to much with the team. Donaldson, meanwhile, was a catcher prospect who took a half-decade from the trade to truly make his mark as a major league. While Donaldson did get to the majors in 2010 and then see extensive time with the A’s in 2012, his game took until 2013 to reach star-caliber heights. By then, Donaldson was no longer a catcher. The newly minted third baseman emphatically burst on the scene in ’13 with 7.3 fWAR and a 147 wRC+ in 668 plate appearances. Donaldson finished fourth in the AL MVP voting and helped the A’s to a 96-win, playoff-bound season in the process.
The A’s returned to the postseason in 2014, once again with significant help from Donaldson. He notched another 5.7 fWAR with a 130 wRC+ in 695 trips to the plate to wind up eighth in his league’s MVP balloting. Oakland couldn’t get past eventual AL champion Kansas City in the wild-card round that fall, though. Two months later, the A’s made the stunning decision to send Donaldson to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, righty Kendall Graveman, infielder Franklin Barreto and lefty Sean Nolin.
Just as picking up Donaldson from the Cubs proved to be a steal for the Athletics, the same held true in the Blue Jays’ acquisition of the the player who became known as the Bringer of Rain. Donaldson went on to earn AL MVP honors in 2015, his debut season in Toronto and the first of two straight years in which the club advanced to the ALCS. He remained a force up north through 2017, but injuries marred his 2018, during which the rebuilding Blue Jays waved goodbye to the then-impending free agent in a trade with the Indians in August.
For Oakland, none of Lawrie, Graveman or Nolin delivered as hoped, nor have they produced much at any other major league stops since their stints with the Athletics concluded. The jury remains out on Barreto, just 23 years old, but the former top 100 prospect still hasn’t established himself as a major leaguer. However, perhaps Barreto will eventually realize his potential and make a Donaldson-like impact in the bigs. That seems highly improbable now, but nobody thought Donaldson would evolve into an elite player when Oakland scooped him up on this date 11 years ago.
Red Sox Among Teams With Interest In Zack Wheeler
The Red Sox and Mets are engaged in preliminary talks regarding New York righty Zack Wheeler, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Boston is said to be targeting a rotation addition after deciding to utilize Nathan Eovaldi in the bullpen.
Importantly, there’s no indication that a deal is close. And the Sox are far from alone in pursuit of Wheeler. The Braves, Brewers, and Yankees were all connected to him recently. Andy Martino of SNY.tv suggests that the Cubs are another possibility, though it’s unclear whether the clubs are in contact.
It’s unsurprising to hear tell of a robust slate of possible suitors for a pitcher who figures to be among the top rental arms available. That’s especially true given that Wheeler is earning just under $6MM this season, making him amply affordable for just about any team.
The salary factor is of particular note with regard to the Boston organization. While the club is one of the game’s most consistent spenders and is coming off of the bonanza of a World Series win, it is also walking a financial tightrope this year and doesn’t plan to extend its payroll much further.
It’s also notable to see the Fenway denizens connected at this stage to a top rental piece. The club isn’t exactly in prime position after a ho-hum start to the season. There’s a nine-game gap in the division, which is paced by a Yankees club that seems poised to make more impactful additions, and serious competition even for a Wild Card birth.
What’s most interesting of all here, perhaps, is the potential for a quick and active bidding situation. The Red Sox and Yankees are obviously aware of the implications of one or the other landing a particular player. With the Sox said to be looking to strike a relatively quick deal to bring in rotation help, they could conceivably force the market to move. If the Yanks see Wheeler as their preferred target, they might need to act decisively, setting up an intriguing dynamic involving the club’s chief on-field rival in Boston and its sole market competitor across the way in Queens.
Martino says the Mets “have shifted into a more aggressive sell mode,” which makes sense given their all-but-hopeless spot in the standings (ten games under .500, 13.5 out of the division lead, second-to-worst record in the National League). It may well behoove the team to get the jump on marketing its rental pieces, Wheeler in particular, while other teams try to wait until the last moment. But committing even to a limited sell-off — particularly this early, and especially if it involves the Yankees — would certainly represent a bitter pill for ownership and rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen.
What’s Wrong With Robinson Cano?
We’re on the eve of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, an event second baseman Robinson Cano has received eight invitations to since his career began in 2005. The former Yankee and Mariner is clearly one of the most accomplished second basemen in baseball history. However, in 2019 – his first season as a Met – the 36-year-old Cano has looked nothing like his usual self. His subpar performance played a key part in a miserable first half for the Mets, who’ve endured a chaotic three-plus months and limped to a 40-50 record thus far.
The Cano acquisition was one of many bold offseason moves by first-year Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, the potential Hall of Famer’s former agent. While inexpensive closer Edwin Diaz was likely the real target in the Mets’ return from the Mariners in a blockbuster December trade, it’s obvious there was confidence in Cano on New York’s part. Otherwise, the club wouldn’t have taken on four years and $100MM of Cano to land Diaz. Unfortunately for the Mets, though, neither player has performed to expectations this year.
The sweet-swinging Cano entered the year a lifetime .304/.355/.493 hitter (127 wRC+) with 56.7 fWAR – the sixth-highest total among position players from 2005-18 – as well as 311 home runs in 8,841 plate appearances. He offered similarly excellent production last year, though a fractured right hand and an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension cut his season in half.
Cano’s 2018 ban didn’t scare off the Mets, for whom he has batted a weak .240/.287/.360 (74 wRC+) with a mere four HRs in 258 trips to the plate. Cano has also accounted for a ghastly minus-7 Defensive Runs and a minus-3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating at second, a position he has typically handled with aplomb. To make matters worse, the once-durable Cano has endured a pair of stints on the injured list because of quad problems. During the 65 games Cano has taken the field, he has posted minus-0.5 fWAR – a stark fall from grace for someone who logged 2.9 during his shortened 2018 and has exceeded the 3.0 mark in nine seasons.
If you’re looking for causes for Cano’s awful offensive production this season, start with a power outage. His ISO’s at .120, 69 points lower than the mean he recorded coming into this season. It’s also 60 points worse than the league-average figure and 18th from the bottom among 195 hitters who have amassed at least 250 PA. As FanGraphs’ heatmaps indicate (pre-2019, this year), Cano typically showed a solid amount of power on the inner and outer halves of the strike zone before the current campaign. His power this year has been confined to the middle of the plate, though, and it’s not even as strong there anymore.
Cano’s still making plenty of hard contact – he ranks in the majors’ 83rd percentile in that category and its 77th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. But he’s pulling the ball less than ever, striking out a good amount more than he has in prior seasons and swinging and missing at a career-worst rate. A more aggressive approach – evidenced by a personal-high swing rate – hasn’t panned out, as shown by a career-low contact percentage.
When Cano has put the bat on the ball, he has only registered a .283 batting average on balls in play – down 36 points compared to 2005-18. There may be some poor fortune involved in that. As mentioned, he has hit the ball hard. There’s also a 28-point gap between his weighted on-base average and his expected wOBA. Still, though, Cano’s xwOBA is an underwhelming .307. That ranks in the majors’ 28th percentile, while his sprint speed (15th), expected slugging percentage (36th) and expected batting average (54th) are also mediocre or much worse. None of that’s conducive to a high BABIP or quality overall production, nor is Cano’s sudden uselessness against same-handed pitchers.
Although the lefty-hitting Cano has been much tougher on right-handed pitchers in his career, he has at least posed a threat versus southpaws. A lifetime .282/.333/.429 hitter (106 wRC+) without the platoon advantage, the 2019 version of Cano’s at a putrid .206/.275/.222 (43 wRC+) against lefties. Another look at FanGraphs’ heatmaps (pre-2019, this season) shows lefties have lived much more belt-high middle or on the outer half of the plate against Cano this year compared to prior seasons. He hasn’t found an answer yet.
Answers in general have been hard to come by for this year’s Mets, one of the season’s greatest letdowns to date. There may not be time for a team-wide turnaround in 2019, but if Cano returns to his pre-Mets form in the season’s second half, at least the club would have that to hang its hat on going into the winter. Right now, though, the acquisition of Cano looks like a massive misstep by Van Wagenen, who may have saddled his team with an albatross contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Red Sox Face Decision On Tyler Thornburg
The Red Sox announced today that they have recalled the rehabilitation assignment of righty Tyler Thornburg. While the reliever remains on the injured list for the time being, the move begins a two-day period within which the club will have to decide whether to activate him or instead remove him from the MLB roster, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter.
Thornburg has been working back from a hip impingement since late May — the latest in a line of health issues that have significantly limited him since he came to Boston in the 2016-17 offseason. He has averaged 94.1 mph on his average fastball this year in the majors, but little else has gone according to plan.
Despite the return to a velocity level that sits just over his career average, Thornburg managed only an 8.6% swinging-strike rate over his 18 2/3 innings. He did record 22 strikeouts, but also handed over ten walks and gave up four long balls. If anything, it might be surprising the ball didn’t leave the yard more often. Opposing hitters tagged Thornburg to the tune of a 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 56.6% hard-contact rate, and 20.4 degree average launch angle.
In all, Thornburg coughed up 7.71 earned per nine in the majors. And his rehab showing at Triple-A hasn’t been any more promising. In 10 2/3 frames there, he was ambushed for a whopping 15 earned runs and five long balls.
It’s possible that the Sox will give Thornburg one more shot to make good at the MLB level. Odds are they’ll decide it’s time to cut bait, even with a relief unit that’s in need of supplementation. Other organizations will surely like to see if they can help the veteran get back to what once made him a quality reliever, though it’s hard to imagine any taking on the remainder of his $1.75MM salary.
Tendering Thornburg in his final season of arb eligibility has proven a regrettable decision for the Red Sox, though it’s understandable the organization sought to recoup some value. Despite turning in questionable results when he was able to pitch in 2018, Thornburg evidently showed enough for the club to think he could rediscover his form. Indeed, over the winter, the club even cited him as a possible member of the late-inning mix.