NL Notes: Castellanos, Cubs, Padres, Richards, Pirates
Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is only about a week into his Cubs tenure, but Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription link) wonders if the free agent-to-be will work his way into the team’s plans past this season. Castellanos has excelled at the plate over a rather small sample of work as a Cub, and as Mooney explains, the former Tiger has taken a liking to his new franchise. While the 27-year-old Castellanos will be one of the top hitters in the upcoming winter’s free-agent class, a lack of defensive value figures to limit his earning power. The price could be palatable enough for the Cubs to retain him, but it wouldn’t be ideal that Castellanos would have to remain a full-time outfielder in a DH-less league.
More from the NL…
- The Padres don’t expect the shoulder tightness that forced right-hander Garrett Richards from his latest rehab start to require an MRI, per Jeff Sanders on the San Diego Union-Tribune. “We’ll see how it responds over the coming week to treatment and when he picks up a ball in the near future,” manager Andy Green said of Richards. If all goes well, the former Angel could debut with the Padres sometime before this season ends. The Padres signed Richards to a two-year, $15.5MM contract last winter just a few months after he underwent Tommy John surgery.
- Prized Pirates righty Mitch Keller is likely to return to the majors for a start next Tuesday, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette suggests. The 23-year-old is one of the game’s highest-ranked pitching prospects, but a three-start audition in the majors from May to June didn’t go well. Keller allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits and six walks in a 12-inning span, though he did strike out 15 batters. And Keller has held his own this year in his debut in the offense-driven International League. In 103 2/3 innings with Triple-A Indianapolis, he has pitched to a 3.56 ERA/3.60 FIP with 10.68 K/9 and 3.04 BB/9.
- More on the Pirates from Mackey, who has the latest on injured outfielder Gregory Polanco and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Polanco, who hasn’t played since June 16 because of left shoulder problems, has received clearance to restart baseball activities. It’s still not clear when he might return to the Bucs, however. Polanco also sat out the first couple weeks of 2019 on account of his shoulder, which required season-ending surgery last September. Cervelli, trying to work back from a concussion that has shelved him since May 25, is progressing toward catching again this season. The concussion-prone Cervelli will first need “final clearances from our doctors, the commissioner’s office and the [MLBPA],” Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said.
Latest On Luke Weaver, Taijuan Walker
Right-hander Luke Weaver‘s success over the first couple months of 2019 was among the most encouraging early season developments for the Diamondbacks. UCL and flexor pronator sprains cut Weaver down near the end of May, however, and he hasn’t taken a major league mound since. Finally, though, Weaver’s making “major” progress, as Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic reports. Weaver threw off flat ground Tuesday and is slated for a bullpen session Friday.
Manager Torey Lovullo called the latest development on Weaver “very good news.” The hope is that Weaver and fellow injured righty Taijuan Walker will be able to make it back to the Diamondbacks’ staff this season. Walker is approximately “10 days” behind Weaver’s program, per Lovullo. It’s been an injury-ruined couple years for the once-touted Walker, who missed almost all of last season on account of Tommy John surgery and then suffered a sprained shoulder capsule this past May. He hasn’t made a big league appearance since April 14, 2018.
If Weaver and Walker do factor back into the mix for Arizona this year, they’ll likely do so as relievers, Morin relays. There probably isn’t enough time for either to work their way back as starters in 2019. It’s fair to say their absences are among the reasons the Diamondbacks (57-57) are 2 1/2 games out of a National League wild-card spot instead of in playoff position right now. After all, the club has struggled for most of the season to fill out its staff with capable starters. Plus, at least on paper, losing Zack Greinke while gaining Mike Leake and Zac Gallen at the July-ending trade deadline should make matters that much more difficult.
Regardless of whether Weaver pitches again this season, Arizona likely believes it has a long-term building block on its hands in the soon-to-be 26-year-old. Acquired with now-breakout catcher Carson Kelly from the Cardinals in last winter’s Paul Goldschmidt blockbuster, Weaver has recorded a terrific 3.02 ERA/3.11 FIP with 9.82 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 in 62 1/3 innings this season. Weaver’s not on track to become eligible for arbitration until after next season or a free agent until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign. If healthy, he could help ease the pain of Greinke’s exit in the years ahead.
Brett Gardner Expects To Play In 2020
As a soon-to-be 36-year-old and a pending free agent, Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner‘s future looks uncertain beyond this season. However, unlike 39-year-old teammate CC Sabathia, Gardner isn’t planning to retire at year’s end, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post relays. Gardner unsurprisingly wants to continue his career with the Yankees, the lone franchise he has ever known since entering the pro ranks as a third-round pick in 2005.
“At this point in the season, I expect to be playing next year. Hopefully it’s here,” Gardner told Davidoff on Wednesday .”I feel like I’m definitely still capable.”
Gardner, who debuted in 2008 and is now the longest-tenured Yankee, is indeed “still capable.” On a team with no shortage of big-name stars, Gardner’s one of many less heralded players who have helped the Yankees survive an onslaught of key injuries this year. Across 380 plate appearances, Gardner has slashed a sturdy .265/.334/.484 en route to a 112 wRC+, which ties for the second-highest mark of his career. Never known as a major power threat, Gardner has chipped in 17 home runs and what’s easily a personal-best ISO of .228. Combining Gardner’s output at the plate with his typically strong defense and base running has given him at least 2.4 fWAR for the seventh straight season and the ninth in his career.
Considering Gardner continues to function at a high level, he should overcome his age to land a decent – albeit short-term – payday prior to 2020. Gardner’s currently playing on the $7.5MM salary the Yankees handed him last offseason after declining a $12.5MM option over him. The plan then was for Gardner to serve as depth behind starting outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks, but all three of those players have missed a substantial amount of time with injuries (Stanton has barely been a factor).
No doubt, Gardner’s presence has been highly beneficial this year, and he’s one of the reasons New York boasts the American League’s leading record (75-39). However, even though Gardner’s a still-productive player and a revered Yankee, it’s up in the air whether they’ll bring him back next year. Judge, Stanton and Hicks are all in line to return in the outfield, while potential breakout player Mike Tauchman has made a case that he should get a roster spot in 2020. As a pre-arbitration player, Tauchman should earn a far cheaper salary than Gardner next season. Plus, the Yankees won’t be able to send the soon-to-be out-of-options Tauchman to the minors then, which could also influence their decision if they make a choice between him and Gardner.
Not to be forgotten, the Yankees have corner outfielder Clint Frazier hanging around in Triple-A ball. While Frazier (25 next month) at least looks like a major league-caliber hitter, he hasn’t stuck in the bigs this year despite quality offensive numbers. But the Yankees are known to be bullish on Frazier – whom they’ve been unwilling to trade to this point – and might finally choose to dedicate a spot to him next season. It remains to be seen whether that would help push out Gardner, the more well-rounded player.
Brad Peacock Could Return As Reliever
Injured Astros right-hander Brad Peacock has spent almost the whole season as a starter, but he may shift back to his old bullpen role when he returns. The Astros are “gearing” Peacock’s rehab that way, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets.
The 31-year-old Peacock was among the Astros’ most useful starters before he landed on the shelf June 28 with shoulder discomfort. In 15 appearances and 80 2/3 innings as a starter this season, Peacock has posted a 4.24 ERA/4.32 FIP with 9.15 K/9 against 2.57 BB/9. The plan was for Peacock to return to Houston’s rotation sometime in July, but he suffered a setback midway through the month. As of two-plus weeks ago, the Astros’ hope was Peacock would come back around the midpoint of August.
Thanks in part to Peacock’s lack of availability, the Astros made other rotation arrangements at last week’s trade deadline. They pulled in two big-name starters – the ace-caliber Zack Greinke from the Diamondbacks and what they hope is a revived Aaron Sanchez from the Blue Jays. With those two and Wade Miley behind the all-world tandem of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, the Astros no longer need any help in their starting staff.
Fortunately for talent-packed Houston, Peacock is just a year removed from a valuable campaign out of its bullpen. He totaled 63 1/3 frames in 60 appearances as a reliever in 2018 and notched a 3.55 ERA/3.54 FIP with 13.36 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9. Peacock did have a tough time with opposite-handed hitters, which has typically been the case, but he has been lights-out against righties.
Marcell Ozuna Would Prefer To Stay With Cardinals
This has been a solid but injury-shortened season for Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who ranks among the game’s best pending free-agent position players. Although Ozuna could have a chance to shop his services around the majors in a few months, the soon-to-be 29-year-old would like to remain with the Cardinals, Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription required).
“I hope to stay here,” Ozuna told Saxon. “Let’s see how the season goes and how much I can help the team, but my preference is to stay here. I like the team, the city of St. Louis, everything. Maybe at the end of the season, we can get something done. Let’s see how the team finishes.”
The Cardinals, however, aren’t prepared to discuss an extension yet. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Saxon it’s “good to hear” Ozuna wants to remain a Redbird, but he added, “We will focus on this in the offseason.”
If the two sides don’t reach an agreement before the market opens, the Cardinals are likely to slap a qualifying offer on Ozuna as he potentially prepares to depart. That would be a pricey move on the team’s part (the QO was worth $17.9MM last offseason), but Ozuna is on the way to justifying the investment with another respectable showing.
Now in his second year with the Cardinals, the former Marlin has slashed .252/.329/.505 (115 wRC+) with 1.6 fWAR over 346 plate appearances in 2019. Ozuna missed just over a month this summer with multiple finger fractures, but he has still piled up 21 home runs. His prodigious power has helped make him a favorite of Statcast, which places Ozuna anywhere from the league’s 79th to 98th percentile in expected batting average, expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Aside from J.D. Martinez, primarily a designated hitter, Ozuna may be the premier corner outfield-capable player with the potential to become a free agent. Martinez definitely isn’t a lock to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM left on his contract with Boston, though. Conversely, Ozuna’s very likely to face competition from fellow pending free-agent corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig – two just-traded players who won’t be eligible for qualifying offers – and maybe Kole Calhoun if the Angels decline his $14MM option.
For their part, the Cardinals don’t appear to have any outfielders as appealing as Ozuna right now. That could influence the club to try to bring Ozuna back, though St. Louis is likely mindful that its recent big-money contracts for veteran position players haven’t paid off to this point. The Cardinals have issues a combined $311.5MM in guarantees to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, catcher Yadier Molina, third baseman Matt Carpenter and outfielder Dexter Fowler dating back to December 2016. All four of those players have experienced marked declines in production since receiving their deals, which helps explain why the Cardinals aren’t in possession of a National League playoff spot at the moment.
Royals Acquire Adam Moore From Rangers
The Royals have acquired catcher Adam Moore from the Rangers, according to Texas’ executive vice president of communications, John Blake. The Rangers received cash considerations for Moore, who will now report to Triple-A Omaha. Meanwhile, Rangers catcher Tim Federowicz has joined their Triple-A club in Nashville. The Rangers outrighted him over the weekend.
The Moore swap will go down as a rare August deal in a league that no longer features a waiver trade deadline. The teams were able to swing it because Moore’s on a minor league contract. He inked that pact with the Rangers back in mid-February.
The 35-year-old Moore has spent the season in Nashville, where he has hit .255/.363/.349 with two home runs in 124 plate appearances. Moore has combined for a more powerful line of .265/.327/.406 with 65 HRs across 2,526 career PA at the minors’ highest level. He has seen major league action in the past with several clubs – including his new team, the Royals, from 2012-13 – but hasn’t totaled more than 20 at-bats in an MLB campaign since 2010. Moore has batted .199/.239/.412 in 312 trips to the plate in the bigs.
Poll: Predict The NL’s Wild-Card Teams
We’re in for a riveting couple of months in the National League, where the majority of franchises at least have a glimmer of a chance at earning a wild-card berth. Four teams are within 2 1/2 games of the currently Max Scherzer-less Nationals for the top spot, while another four are 2 1/2 or fewer behind the Phillies for the league’s fifth and final playoff position. And we can’t even fully rule out the Giants, Reds, Padres or Rockies – teams that range from four to 7 1/2 behind the Phillies. The odds are strongly against anyone from the San Francisco-Cincinnati-San Diego-Colorado quartet making a miracle run, but nobody expected the long-slumbering Mets to suddenly rip off 13 wins in 14 games to put themselves in the thick of the race.
Despite a season loaded with turmoil, the Mets’ out-of-nowhere stretch of brilliance has placed them just a game back of the Phillies. According to FanGraphs, New York now has the second-highest odds of the NL’s wild-card contenders, trailing only the Nationals. The Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Reds check in next, though FanGraphs ranks their chances significantly lower than those of the Nats and Mets. The only club from that group that’s not at least .500 is Cincinnati. The Reds are a subpar 54-58, but they’ve won seven of 10 and did just add a pair of notable pitchers in Trevor Bauer and Kevin Gausman (the Bauer acquisition came at the expense of outfielder Yasiel Puig, though). Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks lost the best pitcher from an already thin staff, Zack Greinke, whom they traded to the Astros at last week’s deadline. Arizona brought in a respectable back-end starter in Mike Leake, but he’s no Greinke.
Arguably no current wild-card contender did more to improve at the deadline than the Mets, who reeled in Marcus Stroman to complement ace Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler near the top of their rotation. The majority of the other teams mentioned above also made deadline additions, but Bauer aside, Stroman may be the highest-upside pickup on paper.
MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked Tuesday if the Mets would end up in the postseason, though the majority of voters said no. But if not them, then which two clubs will make it from the NL’s crowded field (one that could also include the division-leading Braves and Cubs)?
(Poll link for app users)
Who will earn the NL's two wild-card spots?
-
Nationals 30% (6,379)
-
Mets 22% (4,614)
-
Brewers 14% (3,022)
-
Cardinals 13% (2,802)
-
Phillies 9% (1,970)
-
Reds 6% (1,224)
-
Giants 2% (524)
-
Diamondbacks 2% (325)
-
Other (specify in comments) 1% (155)
Total votes: 21,015
Dustin Pedroia Undergoes Knee Surgery
7:40pm: The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports several details on the procedure performed on Pedroia. The 35-year-old underwent a “relatively new” surgery called a “subchondroplasty” aimed at repairing multiple hairline fractures that had formed and strengthening the bones in his knee. He also had several bone spurs removed. Speier also quotes an orthopedic surgeon (Twitter link) in calling today’s surgery a “much bigger” procedure than the previous surgeries performed on Pedroia’s knee. The Globe’s Peter Abraham tweets that this particular surgery is sometimes performed as an alternative to a knee replacement.
12:35pm: Red Sox second bagger Dustin Pedroia has undergone another procedure on his balky left knee, according to a team announcement. A “joint preservation procedure” was performed yesterday.
Pedroia’s status has remained unclear amidst ongoing knee problems. Most recently, he acknowledged the possibility that he may never return to the MLB field of play. The plans aren’t yet entirely clear, but it sounds as if Pedroia will at least give a shot at a comeback. The announcement specifies that the veteran “will begin his rehabilitation in Arizona.”
Incredibly, this marks the fifth knee operation that Pedroia has undergone since the 2016-17 offseason. He’s only been able to suit up for a total of nine games in 2018-19, and his last (mostly) healthy season in 2017 featured one of the weakest offensive showings of his career. He’s under contract through the 2021 season after signing an eight-year, $110MM extension back in July 2013.
5 Extended Players Amid Disappointing Seasons
The staggering number of extensions teams doled out leading up to this season was among Major League Baseball’s main storylines last spring. Some of the players who inked those deals (Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna Jr., to name a couple) have picked up where they left off prior to receiving their new pacts. Others have fallen short of expectations, on the other hand. Here are several notable examples of just-extended players who have disappointed this season…
Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox (five years, $145MM):
- Sale’s velocity began to plummet late last year – a season limited by shoulder problems – but after the Red Sox’s latest World Series triumph in the fall, they decided to make a big-money, long-term commitment to the southpaw. Unfortunately for Boston, Sale’s velocity hasn’t really recovered (at least not to its summer 2018 levels) during what has been a less-than-ideal season for him and the reigning champions. The 30-year-old entered 2019 having never logged an ERA higher than 3.41 in a season, but the number has skyrocketed to 4.68 through 132 2/3 innings in the current campaign. Furthermore, Sale’s average exit velocity against has climbed from 84.7 mph to 88.2 since last season, while his expected weighted on-base average has soared from .238 to .292. Most pitchers would sign up for a .292 mark, though, and Sale does remain a bear to deal with despite his sudden difficulty preventing runs. His 3.55 FIP, 3.06 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA are all terrific, as his 13.09 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9. Sale is clearly still a major asset, but he hasn’t been the elite force we’ve grown accustomed to watching.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals (five years, $130MM):
- Set to turn 32 next month, Goldschmidt’s on track for the worst full season of his storied career, having hit .253/.333/.461 in 477 plate appearances. Although the former Diamondback has racked up 25 home runs, his offensive output has only been 8 percent better than the league-average batter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Goldschmidt’s walks are down, his strikeouts are up, he’s chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever, and his expected weighted on-base average – .351, a bit better than his .342 real wOBA – is down 33 points from last year. St. Louis didn’t expect any of that this season when it inked Goldschmidt to a franchise-record accord several months ago.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays (five years, $52MM):
- Grichuk’s the one player on this list whose extension has already taken effect. While he is enjoying a red-hot early August, albeit one buoyed by a .533 batting average on balls in play, his season has still been a letdown compared to last year’s strong offensive showing. Never known for getting on base much throughout his career, the 27-year-old has batted .240/.296/.432 with 18 HRs across 452 PA. Grichuk’s ISO has sunk 65 points since 2018, having gone from .257 to .192. At the same time, his .286 xwOBA (compared to a .308 wOBA) only ranks in the league’s 11th percentile.
Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals (two years, $39MM):
- Carpenter, like his teammate Goldschmidt, isn’t showing encouraging signs months after landing his new contract. The 33-year-old joined Goldschmidt as one of the National League’s top players from 2013-18, but he has hit a below-average .218/.325/.368 with 10 homers in 360 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened 2019 season. Carpenter’s walk, strikeout and isolated power numbers have all gone in worrying directions, while his .320 xwOBA (superior to a .300 wOBA, granted) is merely mediocre and far below where it was in recent years. Carpenter didn’t post an xwOBA worse than .383 in any season from 2015-18.
Khris Davis, DH, Athletics (two years, $33.5MM):
- After four straight years of hitting .247 and three straight seasons of swatting 40-plus home runs, the low-budget Athletics took a gamble by locking up Davis to a relatively big contract. He’s off to a tough start thus far. With minus-0.5 fWAR in 388 PA, Davis has been among the majors’ least valuable players this year. He’s hitting .230/.299/.398 with 17 homers and a .168 ISO, which is 134 points lower than the figure he recorded just a year ago. Davis is also barreling approximately 7 percent fewer pitches than he did from 2016-18, and his average exit velocity has fallen about 2.5 mph compared to the previous couple years. Although the 31-year-old’s .325 xwOBA does easily outdo his .299 wOBA, it still represents a significant drop-off for a player who put up a mark upward of .370 in each of the prior three seasons. In fairness to Davis, he has battled multiple injuries this year, so perhaps he’ll rebound if healthier in 2020.
Ryon Healy Undergoes Hip Surgery
Aug. 7: Healy underwent a debridement procedure on his right hip and is expected to require four to six months to recover, Divish tweets.
Aug. 2: Mariners corner infielder Ryon Healy is slated to undergo hip surgery, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times was among those to cover on Twitter. The procedure will sideline him for the remainder of the season.
Healy was previously diagnosed with spinal stenosis. Whether the hip issue is related directly or indirectly is not entirely clear. Neither is it known just how lengthy a rehab process will be required.
The 27-year-old Healy was already facing questions on the field before the health issues arose. He turned in below-average offensive numbers for the second consecutive season, with good power (.219 ISO) but another sub-.300 OBP. In a total of 711 plate appearances with Seattle, Healy has posted a lackluster .236/.280/.423 batting line with 31 home runs. Given his lack of defensive value and baserunning abilities, that type of output is simply too tepid.
Healy entered the 2019 season with two-plus years of big league service and will cross the three-year mark in 2019, making him eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this winter. This year’s health troubles will suppress a theoretical raise to an extent, but the power numbers that Healy has already logged in his young career will put him in line for a decent bump from this year’s $580K all the same. As such, it’s worth wondering whether the Mariners will tender him a contract at all this winter. The answer to that question could be dependent on the status of his recovery.