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Pirates’ Trevor Williams Nearing Return

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The Pirates have had to go almost a month without right-hander Trevor Williams, who landed on the injured list May 17 with a right side strain. Williams will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, though, and could slot back into Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as next Tuesday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.

Even with the injury factored in, the 27-year-old Williams has perhaps been the Pirates’ best starter in 2019. Before going on the IL, Williams totaled nine starts and 54 innings – good for a six-frame average – and pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9. It continued an underrated run of production for Williams, who combined for a 3.49 ERA/3.68 FIP over 56 starts and 309 1/3 innings from 2017-18.

In addition to Williams’ forthcoming return, the Pirates will soon welcome back fellow righty Jordan Lyles, per Berry. Lyles just hit the IL on the 10th with left hamstring tightness, though it appears he’ll only miss the minimum 10 days. So far in 2019, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the top bargain signings of the offseason. Since inking a one-year, $2.05MM contract during the winter, Lyles has notched a 3.64 ERA/3.63 FIP with 9.23 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and .98 HR/9 in 12 starts and 64 1/3 frames.

Of the 11 pitchers who have started for the Pirates this year, Williams, Lyles, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon are the only ones who have posted average or better numbers. Taillon has been down since the beginning of May with a right flexor strain, however, and Berry reports there’s still no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Chris Archer has come up well short of expectations, Steven Brault has battled control problems, and opposing offenses hammered high-end prospect Mitch Keller during his first two starts.

Latest On Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Matt Bush

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At 36-31, the Rangers unexpectedly hold a two-game lead on an American League wild-card spot. Some of their recent success has come without injured outfielders Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun, though both players are progressing toward returns, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports (links: 1, 2). Meanwhile, injured reliever Matt Bush is close to rejoining the Rangers’ bullpen, according to Wilson.

Gallo, who suffered a left oblique strain June 1, could be back when the Rangers open a six-game road trip June 25, per Wilson. Given the nature of oblique injuries, a three-plus-week absence wouldn’t be a terrible outcome for Gallo or the Rangers. Nevertheless, the injury has temporarily derailed an MVP-caliber start for the 25-year-old Gallo, who was amid a career-best season when he landed on the shelf.

Gallo entered 2019 off back-to-back 40-home run campaigns, though his high-strikeout, low-batting average ways helped limit him to 2.8 fWAR in each of those years. So far this season, though, Gallo has already totaled 3.3 fWAR in 214 plate appearances. While his strikeouts continue to pile up, he has still slashed .276/.421/.653 (170 wRC+) with 17 homers. Along the way, Gallo has significantly increased his walk rate (19.1 percent, compared to 13.4 from 2015-18). Further backing up his bottom-line results, Gallo ranks first in the majors in average exit velocity (96.3) and fourth in expected weighted on-base average (.442), according to Statcast.

Along with demonstrating his offensive prowess, Gallo has been a major asset in the field, having logged six Defensive Runs Saved between left and center. Needless to say, Gallo’s return will be great news for Texas, whose lineup has unsurprisingly lost some bite without him.

While Calhoun’s no Gallo (not yet, at least), he also came out of the gates well before his IL stint. Calhoun has been down May 22 with a strained left quad, but he could return as early as this Monday, Wilson writes. The former top prospect, 24, raked at the Triple-A level at the start of the year before the Rangers recalled him in mid-May. Thanks to his stint in the minors and his injury, Calhoun has picked up just 24 PA in the majors this year. But his .435/.458/.739 line and two HRs are welcome signs for a young player who fell flat with Texas and its Triple-A team last season.

As for Bush, he hasn’t taken a big league field at all since undergoing surgery on a partial UCL tear in his right elbow last September. However, the 33-year-old could be back in the majors before the month’s out. Bush struggled mightily during his injury-shortened 2018, but he was a useful part of the Rangers’ bullpen in the two previous years. During his three-year, 137-inning Rangers tenure, Bush has pitched to a 3.35 ERA/3.65 FIP with 9.07 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9.

Ketel Marte Elevates, Celebrates

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Ketel Marte joined the Diamondbacks in November 2016 as part of a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. At the time, Marte wasn’t regarded as the biggest piece of the deal – one that also featured Jean Segura, Taijuan Walker and a pre-breakout Mitch Haniger – but he has evolved into an indispensable piece for the Diamondbacks.

Baseball America considered Marte one of the majors’ 50 best prospects when the Mariners promoted him to the majors in 2015. The switch-hitting middle infielder lived up to the billing initially, as he slashed .283/.351/.402 (112 wRC+) with 1.8 fWAR during a 57-game, 247-plate appearance debut. Marte sharply declined in Year 2, though, and the Mariners deemed him expendable after he accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR in 466 trips to the plate that season.

On the heels of his trade to Arizona, the D-backs elected to slow cook Marte. They kept him at the Triple-A level the first few months of the 2017 campaign, during which he raked, before calling him up at the end of June. Marte didn’t log world-beating production over his two months in Arizona that year, but he impressed the organization enough for it to award him a five-year, $24MM guarantee heading into 2018. The extension appeared to be a shrewd choice on the D-backs’ part last year, when Marte hit .260/.332/.437 (104 wRC+) with 2.5 fWAR in 580 PA, and now it looks downright brilliant.

With 2.4 fWAR in 294 plate trips, Marte’s already on the verge of surpassing his career-high total in mid-June. His value has largely come from a massive uptick in power. The 25-year-old entered the season with 22 major league home runs, including 14 in 2018, but has already added 17 to his ledger thus far. And Marte’s isolated power number (.258) dwarfs the below-average .126 he posted from 2015-18.

Like many other hitters, Marte’s profiting from more of a fly ball-oriented approach. His flies are up almost 9 percent over his career mark, his grounders are down nearly 8 percent, and he’s pulling more pitches than ever. Since his last year in Seattle, when Marte hit a mere one homer and managed a similarly weak .064 ISO, his exit velocity on fly balls and line drives has risen almost 7 mph.

The changes Marte has made since he switched organizations have helped lead to a meaty .284/.332/.542 line (122 wRC+) this season. Better still, his increased output looks relatively sustainable. Marte’s not a product of his ballpark, having hit better outside Chase Field, and has recorded above-average production from both sides of the plate. His walk rate’s a below-average 6.4 percent, down from 9.3 last season, though he has never been a BB king (sorry). While Marte has swung more – including outside the strike zone – and made less contact than he did in 2018, his still-low 16.1 percent strikeout rate indicates he’s not totally selling out for gains in the power department.

In further good news, Marte’s .288 batting average on balls in play isn’t on the lucky side – particularly for a fast runner who hits the ball with authority. His exit velocity (90.9 mph), expected batting average (.287), expected slugging percentage (.516) and expected weighted on-base average (.361, compared to a .365 real wOBA) all rank in the league’s 77th percentile or higher, according to Statcast. And Marte hasn’t been vulnerable versus any offering, having registered an xwOBA between .342 and .401 against fastballs, offspeed pitches and breaking balls.

Adding everything up, it appears the Diamondbacks have a solid offensive presence in Marte. Not only that, but he has morphed into a multi-positional defensive building block. After saving seven runs as a full-time second baseman last year, Marte has combined for another seven this season – including six as a center fielder. The all-around package is an enviable one for Arizona, which looks as if it will continue to benefit from its choice to lock up Marte at set prices for the foreseeable future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Is Chris Archer Broken?

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The Pirates decided last July to trade two of their prized young players, outfielder Austin Meadows and right-hander Tyler Glasnow, to the Rays for veteran righty Chris Archer. The Bucs took the gamble because they thought they were acquiring a top-of-the-rotation arm in Archer. That isn’t what they’ve gotten, though, and the deal now looks like one of the most lopsided swaps in recent memory. Not only have Meadows and Glasnow broken out in Tampa Bay, but Archer has taken enormous steps backward in his new home.

On Tuesday, in his 21st start as a Pirate, Archer yielded seven earned runs on eight hits – including five home runs – in six innings against the Braves. The Pirates lost the game, unsurprisingly, and continue to look as if they’ll miss the playoffs for the second straight year with Archer on their roster. With a 5.06 ERA/5.14 FIP in 112 innings in Pittsburgh, the 30-year-old Archer has been detrimental to the team’s cause.

At least this season, Archer hasn’t come close to resembling the pitcher who posted a 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP in 1,063 frames as a Ray. Among 118 starters who have thrown 50-plus innings in 2019, Archer ranks last in home run-to-fly ball rate (24.6 percent), fourth worst in FIP (6.15) and walks per nine (4.53), and 11th from the bottom in ERA (5.73). While Archer has fanned 9.2 batters per nine, even that’s below his 2015-18 output.

Looking beyond Archer’s basic production, alarming signs abound. His groundball rate, which has sat in the mid-40s for most of his career, is down to 38.6 percent. In turn, Archer’s fly ball rate has climbed to a career-worst 39.2 percent. That partially explains why he’s running an HR-to-FB rate nearly twice his lifetime figure.

Likewise, it doesn’t appear a change in repertoire has helped Archer’s cause. Per Baseball Savant, Archer turned to a slider (41.7 percent), four-seam fastball (36.4), sinker (10.5) and changeup (9.9) as his primary offerings last year. That has remained the case, though his usage – slider (34.8 percent), four-seamer (27.7), sinker (22.0) and change (13.6) – now looks much different. Hitters’ production against Archer’s slider and change has mostly stayed the same since last year. But they’re tattooing Archer’s sinker, a pitch the Pirates had him resurrect, having put up a .523 weighted on-base average/.522 xwOBA against it, and abusing his four-seamer (.380/.453). Archer has lost velocity on both pitches, and his typical location has changed since a year ago (heatmaps via FanGraphs: four-seamer: 2018, ’19; sinker: 2018, ’19)

As for Archer’s suddenly hideous walk rate, it’s easy to identify causes. After ranking 45th among 121 qualifiers in strike rate last year, he’s down to 93rd out of 127 this season. He’s also running his lowest chase, first-pitch and swinging-strike rates since 2016. When Archer’s not doling out walks, he’s surrendering damaging contact. He ranks in the league’s 24th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected batting average against, expected weighted on-base average against and expected slugging percentage against. While Archer’s .361 wOBA against is subpar, his .379 xwOBA paints an even bleaker picture.

As much as Archer has struggled this season, his pre-Pittsburgh track record earns him some benefit of the doubt. Considering what he accomplished as a Ray, it would be unwise to say Archer’s never going to rebound. However, it doesn’t appear his new sinker-heavy approach is working, nor does his once-bargain contract look all that appealing anymore. With $20MM in team options over the next two years ($9MM in 2020, $11MM in ’21), Archer’s not going to crush the Pirates’ payroll structure. However, as a low-budget team, they can’t afford to have one of their most expensive players continue to falter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Phillies, John Curtiss Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies and right-hander John Curtiss have agreed to a minor league contract, according to Roster Roundup (Twitter link). The 26-year-old Curtiss elected free agency earlier in the month rather than accepting an outright assignment with the Angels.

The former Twins prospect was designated for assignment by Minnesota over the winter and traded to the Halos, but he’s struggled through a poor season in Triple-A so far. In 21 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 14 runs (5.91 ERA) on 20 hits and 13 walks with 29 strikeouts. Curtiss also pitched 2 1/3 frames for the Angels’ big league club and allowed a run. This year’s struggles notwithstanding, Curtiss has a strong track record in Triple-A. Through 101 innings there, he’s pitched to a 3.21 ERA and has averaged 11 K/9 against a less palatable 4.8 BB/9.

It’s only logical to see the Phillies scouring the market for bullpen depth. Philadelphia is currently without David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, Victor Arano and Adam Morgan. That’s basically an entire big league bullpen — and a good one, at that — on the injured list. Curtiss will give the team another option in Triple-A, should further injuries arise at the Major League level.

D-Backs’ Jon Duplantier Placed On IL, Headed For MRI

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The Diamondbacks announced Wednesday that they’ve placed righty Jon Duplantier on the 10-day injured list due to shoulder inflammation. Manager Torey Lovullo told reporters prior to tonight’s game that Duplantier will undergo an MRI tomorrow to determine the severity of the injury (Twitter link via Zach Buchanan of The Athletic).

Duplantier, 24, entered the season considered by many to be among the game’s top 100 prospects. He’s given the D-backs 25 respectable innings thus far, pitching to a 4.32 ERA with a 24-to-9 K/BB ratio. It’s an ill-timed trip to the IL for both Duplantier and the organization. He’d been in line for what looked to be an extended audition in the bullpen with both Taijuan Walker and Luke Weaver on the injured list with significant injuries.

Those injuries to Walker and Weaver, plus the struggles of Zack Godley, had prompted the Diamondbacks to turn to Duplantier and fellow rookie Taylor Clarke to help round out the starting five behind Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and Merrill Kelly. With Duplantier sidelined, the Diamondbacks could again turn to Godley, as there’s not much help looming in Triple-A. Both Taylor Widener and Braden Shipley have ERAs north of 9.00, while other starters such as Anthony Vasquez and Matt Koch have had struggles of their own.

D-backs general manager Mike Hazen chatted with Buchanan for a Q&A (subscription required) that was published earlier today, wherein he stated for the second time in as may weeks that he’s been exploring the market for rotation depth. “Ever since we lost Taijuan Walker and Luke Weaver, we’ve been canvassing, at least watching the market,” said Hazen. One can presume that any type of notable absence for Duplantier will only create more urgency on that front.

The Rays May Have Another Cy Young Contender

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After a strong two-season run in Houston, right-hander Charlie Morton entered free agency last winter as one of the best starters available. Interest in Morton was widespread, thanks in part to the Astros’ decision not to issue him a qualifying offer, though age (35) prevented him from reeling in a long-term deal. Morton ultimately accepted a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays in December. Six months later, it’s looking like one of the steals of the offseason.

Facing the Athletics on Monday, Morton turned in his second consecutive seven-inning shutout and fourth straight quality start. During that four-appearance, 27-inning rampage, Morton yielded a mere three earned runs on 14 hits and posted 31 strikeouts against four walks. The Rays won all of those games, giving them a 10-4 record when Morton has taken the ball this season. Thanks in part to low-budget Tampa Bay’s decision to splurge (by its standards) on Morton, its sporting one of the American League’s leading records at 41-26

While Morton’s recent production has no doubt boosted his numbers, he has been consistently good all season. Morton’s ERA hasn’t risen any higher than 3.60, where it sat after his initial start of the season, and now rests at a microscopic 2.10. He trails only the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi among AL starters in that category, and most of his other production also ranks near the very top of his league. Take a look…

  • FIP: 2.67 (second)
  • WAR: 2.6 (fourth)
  • xFIP: 3.33 (fourth)
  • Weighted on-base average against: .254 (fifth)
  • Strikeouts per nine: 10.84 (seventh)
  • Expected weighted on-base average against: .271 (seventh)
  • Innings: 81 1/3 (15th)

The least impressive figure there is Morton’s innings total, though it still represents a step forward for someone who has long battled durability issues. Morton has never thrown 175 innings in a season, but he’s on pace for almost 200 this year.

We can’t necessarily call this a late-career renaissance because, with all due respect to Morton, his time in the majors wasn’t rife with great moments before he got to Houston. However, a significant rise in Morton’s fastball velocity in 2016 with the Phillies was likely the beginning of his awakening. Unfortunately for Morton and the Phillies, a hamstring tear late that April brought a quick conclusion to his season and, for all intents and purposes, an end to his short run in Philly. He headed to the Astros the next season, which began a 313 1/2-inning stretch of 3.36 ERA/3.53 FIP pitching, and helped the team to a World Series title in 2017.

It was somewhat of a surprise that Houston didn’t make more of an effort to retain Morton after last season, but the Rays have been the beneficiaries of the Astros’ choice. The Rays have gotten a different pitcher than the Astros’ version of Morton, not just in terms of results.

The hard-throwing Morton’s main pitch in 2018 was his four-seam fastball, which he threw at a 31.1 percent rate, according to Statcast. He complemented it with a curveball (29.3 percent), a sinker (27.1), a splitter (6.3) and a cutter (6.3). Now, he’s throwing his curve (36 percent) significantly more than any other pitch, with his sinker (24.2), four-seamer (23.5), cutter (11.8) and splitter (4.4) checking in as his secondary offerings. Morton has lost some velocity since last year, which could at least partially explain his change in approach. At the same time, though, if your curve’s as dominant as his, why not throw it as much as possible? The pitch ranks in the league’s 94th percentile as far as spin rate goes, per Statcast, and hitters have mustered a putrid .142/.170 wOBA/xwOBA against it. According to FanGraphs’ pitch values, it’s the premier curve in the AL.

If Morton continues to use his curve this effectively, he may end up in serious contention for the AL Cy Young just one year after fellow Ray Blake Snell won it. In the event Morton wins the award, he and Snell would become the first AL teammates to take home the honor in back-to-back seasons since the Indians’ CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee accomplished the feat in 2007-08. Even better for the Rays, Morton, Snell, Tyler Glasnow (if he returns from the injured list) and opener Ryne Stanek could make for a dominant postseason rotation should the team team clinch a playoff spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Release Nick Rumbelow

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The Mariners have released right-hander Nick Rumbelow from their Triple-A affiliate, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. He’d already been designated for assignment and outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier in the season but will now hit the open market in search of a new opportunity.

Rumbelow, 27, has had a disastrous 2019 season both in his limited MLB time and in Triple-A Tacoma. He was tagged for four runs in 1 1/3 innings with the Mariners early in the year and has been tattooed for an 8.17 ERA with 37 hits and a 22-to-15 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings in Tacoma.

Rumbelow showed some promise in the Mariners’ minor league ranks last year, notching a 1.83 ERA and a 26-to-8 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings, and he was similarly impressive in the Yankees’ minor league system in 2017 when working back from Tommy John surgery. Even with this year’s ugly results, though, Rumbelow has a career 3.88 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 in 141 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. However, he’s yet to find any success in the Majors to this point in his career; in 34 2/3 big league innings, Rumbelow has a 5.97 ERA and 10 home runs allowed.

Padres Option Chris Paddack

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In a move that’ll come as a surprise to many, the Padres announced that they have optioned right-hander Chris Paddack to Class-A Lake Elsinore. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the move (via Twitter), noting that the Friars are looking for ways to manage Paddack’s workload after he threw just 90 innings in 2018 — his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets that Paddack isn’t expected to be in the minors long. Assuming he’s back up in fewer than 20 days, the move won’t impact Paddack’s timeline to free agency, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune points out (Twitter links). Acee adds that Paddack is going down merely to rest and is expected to return in 10 days or so (the minimum required length of an optional assignment, barring recall in the event of an injury).

While workload surely was surely the driving force in the decision, Paddack has also fallen into somewhat of a slump after his brilliant start to his rookie campaign. In the past month, the 23-year-old has pitched to a 5.76 ERA with 30 hits and eight home runs allowed in 25 innings. He’s still sporting a stellar 26-to-3 K/BB ratio in that time, but the long ball has been problematic of late.

Paddack’s 65 2/3 innings are already within striking distance of last year’s total, so the brief trip to the minors will give him some downtime without forcing the Padres to carry a pitcher they’re trying to deploy minimally for a week or two. Right-hander Robert Stock is up from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster and will give the Padres a fresh arm in the bullpen. He’s pitched to a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 Triple-A innings and collected 27 strikeouts in that time — albeit against 15 walks and three hit batters.

Blue Jays Place Ken Giles On Injured List

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4:50pm: Giles doesn’t expect to miss more than the 10-day minimum, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

3:24pm: Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is headed to the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his right elbow, per a team announcement. The Jays also announced that right-hander Clay Buchholz was moved to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man roster spot for righty Jordan Romano, whose previously reported promotion from Triple-A is now official.

It’s a blow to the Blue Jays on the field but also an unwelcome development given that Giles is among the team’s best trade chips as the July 31 trade deadline looms. There’s no indication that Giles will require an especially lengthy absence at this point, but any sort of recent elbow issue will be cause for some degree of concern when teams are discussing Giles as a trade candidate next month.

The 28-year-old Giles has been nearly automatic in 2019, pitching 25 innings with a 1.08 ERA and a gaudy 42-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s earning $6.3MM in 2019 and is all the more appealing to contending teams due to the fact that he’s controlled through the 2020 season.

In Giles’ absence, the Jays seem likely to turn to Joe Biagini in save opportunities. He’s worked the eighth inning on 17 occasions in 2019 and is tied for the team lead in holds (seven). Daniel Hudson would be another option should the club prefer a more veteran alternative, but he’s averaging nearly five walks per nine innings pitched.

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