Todd Frazier Discusses Potential Trade
As a soon-to-be free agent on a team that appears to be going nowhere in the standings, third baseman Todd Frazier looks like a potential trade chip for the Mets. With the July 31 deadline exactly four weeks out, Frazier addressed his future Wednesday, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post: “If I get traded, OK. If not, I am glad to be here as a Met. I am doing something, so it’s always good to be wanted.”
Trades aren’t anything new to Frazier, who has been part of two deals since he started his career in Cincinnati in 2011. The Reds sent Frazier to the White Sox in December 2015, and just under two calendar years later, the Pale Hose dealt him to the Yankees around the 2017 trade deadline. Frazier then joined the Yankees’ crosstown rivals the ensuing offseason on his current deal – a two-year, $17MM guarantee which Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen negotiated on his behalf.
Van Wagenen was Frazier’s agent when the veteran changed New York franchises, but now BVW is in the unique position of potentially trading away a player whose payday he secured. Frazier’s still owed about $4.31MM on his deal, a pact which has been a mixed bag for the Mets. While Frazier endured a down, injury-shortened initial campaign with the Mets, the 33-year-old has rebounded in 2019 to slash .256/.335/.450 (111 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 236 plate appearances. Frazier has aided his cause with career-best strikeout, swinging-strike and contact rates.
Everyday third basemen could be difficult to find around the deadline, which may work in the Mets’ favor if they try to trade Frazier. Considering their upward trajectory, the Nationals don’t seem likely to deal Anthony Rendon. Otherwise, aside from Frazier, there’s a wide selection of trade possibilities who profile more as part-time players or utility infielders than full-time third basemen. Pablo Sandoval, Derek Dietrich, Jonathan Villar, Neil Walker, Eric Sogard and Tim Beckham are among them.
Garrett Richards Could Return In September
Although the Padres sit below .500 (42-43) as the season nears the All-Star break, they’re still just two games back of a wild-card spot in the National League. If the team hangs in the race until late in the year, it could get back a key reinforcement in right-hander Garrett Richards. The Padres are hopeful the recovering Tommy John surgery patient will join their staff in September, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Richards went under the knife last July, effectively ending his Angels tenure, but that didn’t stop the Padres from making a strong commitment to him in free agency. The club guaranteed $15.5MM over two years to Richards, thus making him their second-biggest offseason signing behind Manny Machado.
The 31-year-old Richards earned his deal as a result of a promising stint with the Angels, a 744 2/3-inning stretch from 2011-18 in which he logged a 3.54 ERA/3.62 FIP with 7.8 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 52.5 percent groundball rate. However, injuries – not just Richards’ damaged ulnar collateral ligament – undermined him toward the end of his Angels tenure. Richards concluded his run in Los Angeles with 76 1/3 or fewer innings in each of his final three seasons with the franchise.
When Richards has been healthy enough to take the mound, he has produced like someone capable of slotting in near the top of a team’s rotation. That explains why the starter-needy Padres took a gamble on him for a somewhat expensive amount of money. The team’s current rotation could certainly use a recovered Richards, having managed only mediocre numbers overall. Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer have been good or better, as has Logan Allen across a mere three appearances. But no one from a trio consisting of Matt Strahm, Nick Margevicius and Cal Quantrill has offered a solution over a combined 33 starts.
As they continue to wait for Richards, the Padres will welcome righty Dinelson Lamet back to their rotation Thursday. The 26-year-old Lamet, like Richards, has recently seen Tommy John surgery stall his career. Lamet impressed as a rookie in 2017 before hitting the operating table in April 2018.
Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark
Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.
Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.
The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.
An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.
Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.
Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.
Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs. Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).
Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Carlos Gomez Elects Free Agency
Veteran outfielder Carlos Gomez elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment from the Mets, per the International League transactions log. He was designated for assignment over the weekend.
Gomez, 33, ripped a trio of home runs in his brief reunion with the Mets — including a go-ahead three-run shot not long after being selected from the minor leagues. However, his overall body of work in his return to Queens, where he made his MLB debut as a 21-year-old back in 2007, proved underwhelming. In 99 trips to the plate, the two-time All-Star and former Gold Glover hit just .198/.278/.337 with 30 strikeouts.
Gomez had a solid season with the Rangers back in 2017, but his brief All-Star peak from 2013-14 is now a distant memory. Gomez batted a combined .284/.347/.491 with 47 homers, 74 steals and strong defense in that stretch, racking up 12.3 WAR along the way. Since that brilliant pair of seasons, he’s hit a combined .236/.311/.395 in 1863 plate appearances. He’s not the elite runner he once was, but Gomez still possesses above-average speed (79th percentile in average sprint speed, per Statcast) and is experienced at all three outfield spots, making him a reasonable minor league pickup for a team in need of outfield depth.
162 Games Of Shohei Ohtani
The Angels had far more important things on their mind Tuesday, a night in which they mourned the loss of friend and teammate Tyler Skaggs, but their game against the Rangers marked Shohei Ohtani‘s 162nd as a part of their offense. Injuries have prevented the two-way phenom from making a greater impact since he emigrated from Japan entering the 2018 season, but in the full season he has played, Ohtani has more than matched the overwhelming hype that accompanied his arrival.
Although there wasn’t much question Ohtani would turn into a front-line starter when he left his homeland for the majors, there was plenty of doubt regarding how well he’d fare as a hitter. It turns out Ohtani has made more of a mark on the offensive end to this point, though the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery last October is partially the reason for that. The righty-throwing Ohtani accumulated only 51 2/3 and 10 starts in 2018, when he logged a terrific 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP with 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9.
Ohtani’s pitching numbers will stay in place until he returns to the mound from his TJ procedure in 2020. That same surgery stopped Ohtani from making his 2019 debut as a hitter until May 7, but the DH has more than made up for lost time in the nearly two months since then.
The lefty-swinging Ohtani burst on the scene last year with a .285/.361/.564 line (152 wRC+) and 22 home runs in 367 plate appearances. Thanks to that and his output on the mound, Ohtani rightly took home American League Rookie of the Year honors. While Ohtani hasn’t been quite as strong this year on a rate basis, he has still been a premier hitter, evidenced by his 142 wRC+.
Across 195 trips to the plate, Ohtani has slashed .303/.359/.554 with 12 homers. Now, 162 games and 562 PA into his career as a major league batter, Ohtani owns a .291/.360/.561 slash – good for an exemplary 148 wRC+ – with 34 homers. His .269 isolated power ranks 10th in the majors since 2018, wedging him between the powerful duo of Khris Davis and Luke Voit. The speedy Ohtani has added 14 steals on 19 tries for good measure, giving him a 3.9 fWAR over a full season as a major league offensive player.
Ohtani was marvelous last year and has been again this season, though there are some differences in the way he has compiled his production. Ohtani’s pulling pitches less, hitting far more grounders and far fewer fly balls, all of which has led to a power decrease. He’s still formidable in that department, though. An uptick in line drives has helped Ohtani rank near the absolute top of the majors in expected slugging percentage (86th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (89th percentile), hard-hit percentage (94th percentile), expected batting average (95th percentile) and average exit velocity (99th percentile), according to Statcast. The difference between his .378 xwOBA and .382 wOBA, both of which rank in the top 40 among hitters with at least 150 PA, is negligible.
It’s unwise to draw conclusions from such a small sample, yet it’s worth noting the lefty-swinging Ohtani has been much better against same-handed pitchers than he was a year ago. As FanGraphs’ heat maps indicate (2018, 2019), Ohtani showed no power versus lefties when they threw pitches belt high or lower on the outer half last season. That hasn’t been the case at all this year, on the other hand. At the same time, he has taken tremendous steps forward against breaking pitches in general – after managing a .292/.300 wOBA/xwOBA versus such offerings in 2018, he’s up to .414/.363 a couple months into the current season. Ohtani has shown further growth as a hitter by chasing less outside the zone, swinging and missing at fewer pitches and making much more contact than he did during his rookie campaign.
There is room for improvement when it comes to plate discipline for Ohtani, whose K/BB ratio has hung around the league average in each of his two seasons. And he could have a difficult time continuing to uphold a .350 batting average, which he recorded last year and has again this season. However, as a fast runner who hits the ball hard and amasses a lot of grounders and liners, his skill set is conducive to a high BABIP.
Several months before Ohtani’s much-ballyhooed free-agent derby began, MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom surveyed scouts on what type of major league hitter he’d become. They didn’t forecast an elite-caliber offensive player, but that’s what Ohtani has been through his first full season at the plate. The fact that the two-way force hasn’t really begun to realize his potential as a pitcher is all the more thrilling for the Angels and all the more concerning for the rest of the league.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles’ Josh Rogers Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Orioles left-hander Josh Rogers underwent his second Tommy John surgery today, manager Brandon Hyde announced to reporters (Twitter links via Joe Trezza of MLB.com). He’ll miss the remainder of the 2019 season and, in all likelihood, the bulk of the 2020 campaign as well. Rogers also underwent Tommy John surgery in high school back in 2013.
Rogers, 24, came to the Orioles as part of the trade that sent Zack Britton to the division-rival Yankees prior to last year’s non-waiver trade deadline. At the time, he looked like a near-MLB-ready arm that could occupy a spot at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen. Last year saw Rogers pitch to a combined 3.54 ERA in 139 2/3 innings between the Triple-A affiliates for the two organizations. Given his proximity to the Majors, he was viewed as a candidate to log a fair share of innings for the Orioles in the first full season of their rebuild.
However, Rogers has struggled immensely both in the Majors and in Triple-A this season, logging an ERA north of 8.00 in a combined 69 1/3 innings. It’s certainly possible that issues in his elbow contributed to his poor results in 2019, though. While he’s not considered a premium prospect, Rogers ranked 28th among Baltimore farmhands heading into the season, according to Baseball America, who tabbed him as a potential fifth starter. For an Orioles club that is desperately thin on arms behind John Means, Andrew Cashner and Dylan Bundy, that would’ve been a most welcome outcome. Rogers is the second pitching prospect acquired in last summer’s fire sale to undergo Tommy John surgery this year, joining fellow righty Zach Pop, whom the Orioles acquired as part of their return for Manny Machado.
Instead, the Orioles have looked to a pair of minor trades to try to help stop the bleeding in the final two spots of the rotation. Baltimore acquired right-hander Tom Eshelman from the Phillies in exchange for international bonus money last month and acquired righty Asher Wojciechowski from the Indians in exchange for cash on Monday this week. Eshelman made his big league debut Monday, and the well-traveled Wojciechowski followed him in the rotation last night. There will likely be plenty of fluctuation in the composition of the team’s rotation between now and season’s end, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the out-of-options Wojciechowski will remain in the starting five for now.
Carlos Gonzalez Elects Free Agency
Cubs outfielder Carlos Gonzalez cleared waivers and elected free agency after being designated for assignment last week, manager Joe Maddon told reporters today (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune).
Gonzalez, 33, joined the Cubs on his second minor league deal of the season in late May and was selected to the Major League roster just days later. Unfortuately, CarGo’s time in Chicago didn’t go much better than his brief stint in Cleveland. After hitting .210/.282/.276 through 117 plate appearances with the Indians, Gonzalez batted only .175/.306/.300 in 49 plate appearances with the Cubs. He’s punched out in 31.3 percent of his plate appearances between the two teams.
While there’s plenty of name value attached to Gonzalez, a three-time All-Star and former MVP candidate, it’s been a few years since he delivered particularly strong offense. Dating back to 2017, Gonzalez has batted .260/.328/.423 (86 OPS+) and seen his power diminish. He did enjoy a strong all-around year in 2016 and crack 40 homers in 2015, but the combined .285/.337/.522 line he put together in those two seasons is well in the rear-view mirror at this point. While another club could very well look to roll the dice on a player with such a strong track record, it seems likely that he’ll have to settle for a third minor league deal.
Angels’ Tommy La Stella Likely Out Eight To Ten Weeks
Angels infielder Tommy La Stella has been diagnosed with a fractured tibia in his right leg, the team announced today. He’s expected to miss the next eight to ten weeks of action. The injury, sustained last night when fouling a ball into his shin, will cause La Stella to miss the All-Star Game. Meanwhile, outfielder Brian Goodwin, who exited last night’s game after being hit by a pitch, has been diagnosed with a contusion. Both have been placed on the 10-day injured list.
In a pair of corresponding roster moves, the Angels have selected the contracts of corner infield prospect Matt Thaiss (as had been previously reported) and former Giants outfielder Jarrett Parker. Additionally, right-hander Jaime Barria is up from Triple-A Salt Lake to start tonight’s game.
The loss of La Stella stings both for the team and for La Stella himself. A longtime reserve infielder who at one point was undecided as to whether he wanted to continue his career, La Stella has thrived in a near-regular role in 2019, hitting at a .300/.353/.495 clip in 312 plate appearances. La Stella’s 16 home runs are more than he had in his entire career (947 plate appearances) heading into the season, and his brilliant showing drew enough fan recognition to earn the 30-year-old a starting nod in the aforementioned All-Star Game.
From a team standpoint, it’s another disheartening setback in what has become one of the most difficult seasons in franchise history. The Angels were (and are) still reeling from the gut-wrenching death of left-hander Tyler Skaggs when La Stella had to be helped off the field. Watching La Stella suit up for the All-Star Game could’ve served as a brief respite from the unyielding grief felt in the Angels’ clubhouse, but La Stella himself will now be a spectator for the Midsummer Classic.
In his absence, the Halos will get their first look at Thaiss, a 2016 first-rounder who has begun to tap into his power since reaching Triple-A in 2018. Thaiss was a catcher at the time of his draft but widely expected to move to first base in pro ball. He’s done just that, for the most part, but Thaiss has played more third base (391 innings) than first base (191) in 2019. The Angels could potentially shift David Fletcher over to second base and continue the Thaiss experiment at the hot corner, thus adding a left-handed bat to help replace La Stella. In 372 plate appearances in Salt Lake, Thaiss was hitting .274/.390/.477 with 14 home runs.
As for Parker, the 30-year-old will return to the big leagues for the first time since 2017 with today’s promotion. He spent parts of the 2015-17 seasons in San Francisco, hitting a combined .257/.335/.456 with 15 homers in 382 plate appearances. Most of his production came early in his MLB tenure, though, and he mustered a lackluster .247/.294/.416 slash through a career-high 177 plate appearances in his final season on the MLB roster. So far in 2019, Parker has turned in a terrific .296/.424/.604 slash with 19 home runs in just 283 plate appearances. He’s fanned at a fairly high 27.2 percent clip but helped to offset those whiffs with a 17.3 percent walk rate.
Royals Release Brad Boxberger
July 3: Boxberger cleared waivers and is now a free agent, the Royals announced.
July 1: The Royals have requested release waivers on veteran reliever Brad Boxberger, per a club announcement. He had been designated for assignment recently.
It’s not surprising to see this move, as Boxberger’s $2.2MM salary never figured to hold much appeal after his messy performance to open the season. Had he shown enough of a spark to draw any trade interest, he’d likely have been held on the K.C. roster a while longer.
Boxberger worked to a 5.40 ERA in 26 2/3 frames, hardly the productivity the Royals were hoping for when they placed a value bet on the 31-year-old. He coughed up 5.7 free passes per nine, which is on the high side for his career but not totally out of character. Despite keeping an 11.3% swinging-strike rate that’s not too far off his career average, Boxberger has managed only 9.1 K/9 after retiring about a dozen per nine via strikeout over the past two seasons.
Beyond the outcomes, Boxberger has seemingly shown diminished arm speed. With his fastball velocity dropping significantly, he has tried to ramp up usage of a heretofore little-used slider.
That’s not to say that other organizations will turn up their noses. Boxberger has excelled after down stretches in the past and is still youthful. Even if the velo doesn’t return, he is a rather intriguing, low-risk bounceback candidate. Unless he’s claimed, which would rate as a surprise, the Royals will remain obligated for Boxberger’s remaining salary, less any pro-rated portion of the league minimum he earns if he makes it back to the majors.
Angels To Promote Matt Thaiss
The Angels are set to promote corner infield prospect Matt Thaiss for his MLB debut. Halos Prospects first reported on Twitter that Thaiss was “expected” to be called up today, and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that Thaiss is indeed getting the call. Corresponding moves aren’t yet clear, though Tommy La Stella did sustain a painful-looking leg injury last night upon fouling a ball into his shin and has since been replaced on the All-Star roster. Brian Goodwin also exited last night’s game after being hit by a pitch.
Thaiss, 24, was the Angels’ top pick (No. 16 overall) back in 2016. A catcher at the University of Virginia, Thaiss was widely expected to move to first base in pro ball but was a first-round pick all the same due to his offensive upside. While he has indeed moved out from behind the plate, he’s spent considerably more time at third base than at first base so far in 2019. At the plate, Thaiss is enjoying a solid .274/.390/.477 slash with 14 home runs, 17 doubles and two triples in 372 plate appearances. Long touted for his terrific plate discipline, Thaiss has walked at 15.9 percent clip against a 17.2 percent strikeout rate.
Entering the season, MLB.com ranked Thaiss sixth among Angels prospects and ninth among all first base prospects in baseball. Fangraphs tabbed him as the Halos’ No. 9 prospect, praising a swing change in 2018 that finally allowed Thaiss to tap into some in-game power. He doesn’t have off-the-charts power, drawing more average scouting marks in that regard. Combined with his strong on-base skills, an ability to work counts, passable defense at first base and his recent exposure at the hot corner, that could be enough to make Thaiss a solid contributor for the foreseeable future.