Danny Santana Drawing Trade Interest
At the All-Star break, the Rangers sat on the brink of playoff contention, looking like a team that could be a surprise bet to conservatively buy at the trade deadline. However, any hopes of contention look to be quickly vanishing, and the front office may not have to debate whether to buy or sell. Sunday’s loss makes it seven straight games that the Rangers have dropped, leaving the club just a game over .500 and now in fourth place in the division.
Should the Rangers elect to trade off veteran pieces and regroup in hopes of building a future contender, utilityman Danny Santana may be among the most coveted Rangers on the market. Per J.P. Morosi of MLB Network, the 28-year-old has garnered interest from several teams around baseball and could fetch a nice return for Texas. Though no specific teams are named, it seems reasonable to assume that most every team in playoff position would welcome a versatile offensive weapon. As Morosi notes, that interest may be heightened in light of the Royals’ steep asking price for Whit Merrifield, who would be the most attractive utility player on the market if the Kansas City weren’t so reluctant to let him go.
Santana, for his part, emerged as one of a number of minor-league signings fueling the Rangers’ surprise first-half performance. Formerly of the Twins and Braves, Santana appeared to have peaked as a rookie, when he posted a .824 OPS as a 23-year-old. After that, Santana’s OPS never climbed above .606 in a single season—until now, with an evolving approach leading to an offensive breakout. After posting below-average exit velocity numbers in his first years in the Majors, balls have left Santana’s bat at an average of 91.1 mph this season, a mark that ranks in the 83rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Not only is he hitting the ball harder, but he is elevating it, leading to a career-high 13 home runs and a .250 ISO. With average launch angles of 3.4˚ in 2017 and 9.1˚ last season, that number has jumped to 12.3˚ this season. He likewise ranks favorably in hard-hit rate and expected batting metrics, indicating that his current performance cannot be easily dismissed as a fluke.
To be sure, though, Santana has outperformed those expected batting marks to some degree: his actual wOBA (.381) is nearly 40 points higher than expected (.342) and the same can be said for his batting average (.320 actual versus .282 expected), perhaps in large part thanks to an astronomical .399 BABIP. In that respect, then, teams may be hesitant to pencil Santana in to match his first half production. Those who inquire on Santana are essentially looking at a half-season’s worth of production, making Santana a more risky investment than players with long track records of success. That may depress his value somewhat, but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels should still be able to get a solid return, especially considering that Santana received virtually no attention when he signed in Texas.
However, those expected marks are still more than enough to attract some interest from contending clubs. Santana’s ability to play across the diamond might lower the offensive bar somewhat; teams in the hunt for a World Series won’t acquire Santana with the expectation that he plays every day at one position—rather, he might be deployed a la Chris Taylor or Marwin Gonzalez, hunting favorable matchups and spelling injured or resting regulars.
Santana has appeared at six different positions for the Rangers this season, providing passable (if unspectacular) defense. If defensive metrics like DRS and UZR are to be believed, Santana fits best as a middle infielder, largely grading out below average in the outfield. However, that doesn’t mean that he can’t provide value as an outfielder—giving his manager another option is valuable in and of itself, and Santana doesn’t have to play any one position exceptionally as long as he can play several capably. He’s also stolen 12 bases at a roughly 70% clip, which is an added bonus for Santana’s skillset.
Of course, money is always of interest in trade discussions, and Santana’s value only grows from a financial perspective. Agreeing to a minor-league deal with the Rangers prior to the season, his salary comes in at the league minimum, meaning that interested teams will owe essentially negligible money to Santana, who is controllable through 2021. His combination of affordability and the potential for long-term value—in addition to on-field performance—should make him an attractive candidate for plenty of teams between now and July 31. As Rangers position-players go, Santana may be the most valuable one who is likely to be dealt.
Nationals Place Austin Voth On IL, Recall Joe Ross
The Nationals have placed right-handed pitcher Austin Voth on the 10-day injured list and have recalled pitcher Joe Ross, according to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Voth is dealing with bicep tendinitis; his IL placement comes retroactive to Thursday.
Voth, 27, has emerged as a capable starter for the Nationals, making four starts and posting a serviceable 4.35 ERA through 20 2/3 innings of work. He’s managed to strike out almost a batter per inning, accumulating 20 K’s compared to just 6 walks. He’ll hit a bump in the road with the injury, and the Nats will be down their fifth starter for at least ten days, but the good news is that Max Scherzer may be nearing a return to the rotation.
Ross, meanwhile, has spent the last month playing out an assignment in the minor leagues after a disappointing showing with the Big League team. Since being converted to a reliever, the 26-year-old has worked to a miserable 11.05 ERA in 17 outings, fueled in part by a walk rate that has ballooned to 11.5%, by far the worst mark of his career, which has spanned parts of five seasons. Those struggles earned him a demotion to Triple-A, where he has made eight starts and posted a 4.28 ERA.
Dougherty goes on to note (via Twitter) that relief pitcher Michael Blazek is expected to join the Nats’ active roster in the near future, and was considered to be added today. However, it looks as if the club intends to option Ross in the near future to make room for Blazek, who hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since 2017.
Cubs Interested In Nicholas Castellanos, Shane Greene
2:45pm: David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago adds (via Twitter) that the Cubs have also checked in on Tigers closer Shane Greene. The two teams could pursue a package deal that sends both Greene and Castellanos to Chicago, though as Kaplan notes, the Cubs would have to surrender considerable prospect capital to consummate such an agreement. The aforementioned pair includes two of the Tigers’ most coveted assets, and Detroit will be careful not to be undersold. Greene, unlike Castellanos, is controllable through the 2020 season.
11:01am: The Cubs are among the teams with interest in Tigers right fielder Nicholas Castellanos, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. “This one has some teeth,” McCosky adds.
Whether it’s Chicago or another team that acquires Castellanos, he’s a near lock to leave the Motor City by the July 31 trade deadline. The Tigers likely aren’t going to extend the 27-year-old impending free agent, so they figure to get what they can for him. For now, he’s on a $9.95MM salary.
While the Tigers don’t seem to want him around for the long haul, Castellanos is amid his fourth straight quality offensive season with the club. Castellanos has slashed .280/.339/.467 (111 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances, and has posted a formidable .887 OPS over the past 30 days.
There’s little question Castellanos has value at the dish, but the same isn’t true of his work as a defender. And if he goes to the Cubs, he won’t be able to slot in as a designated hitter. Castellanos has combined for minus-33 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-24.6 Ultimate Zone Rating since moving from third base to right in 2017. He’s at minus-7 and minus-4.0 in those categories this year.
For the Cubs, acquiring Castellanos would likely mean moving bounce-back right fielder Jason Heyward to center, where the Cubs have deployed the light-hitting Albert Almora for most of the season. On the offensive side, a Castellanos pickup would almost surely improve the NL Central-leading Cubs’ outlook against left-handed pitchers, who have held their hitters to a below-average .232/.317/.405/ line. The righty-swinging Castellanos, on the other hand, has been a terror versus southpaws, whom he has crushed to the tune of .377/.451/.639.
Giants Designate Derek Holland, Ryder Jones
The Giants have designated left-hander Derek Holland for assignment, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. In addition, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Ryder Jones has also been designated for assignment, clearing a second spot on the Giants’ 40-man roster.
Holland, formerly with the Rangers and White Sox, joined the Giants entering 2018 on a minor league contract. He was coming off multiple rough seasons at the time, but Holland made his way to San Francisco last year and enjoyed a career renaissance. Holland’s output a year ago was enough to convince new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to make the 32-year-old his most expensive free-agent signing in a modest winter for the club.
The Giants inked Holland to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a matching club option for 2020. They’re now likely have to eat the approximately $2.67MM remaining on Holland’s deal, as it’s difficult to believe a team would take on him and his money in light of the subpar production he has put up this season.
Holland got off to such a poor start out of the Giants’ rotation this season that they shifted him to their bullpen. Neither job has worked out that well in 2019 for Holland, though. Across 68 2/3 innings, Holland has pitched to a 5.90 ERA/6.08 FIP with 9.31 K/9, 4.59 BB/9 and a 41.4 percent groundball rate. Home runs helped lead to the death of Holland’s Giants tenure, as he yielded them on 23 percent of fly balls this year en route to his designation. He did, however, stymie same-handed hitters, who batted .182/.276/.195 against him. With that in mind, perhaps a team will take a chance on Holland as a LOOGY. Regardless, his next deal will likely be of the minor league variety.
Jones, meanwhile, has largely failed to live up to expectations after the Giants made him a second-round draft selection in 2013. With just four home runs and a .133 ISO in his Major League career, he has yet to show the power that is necessary for a lumbering corner infielder. Jones’s struggles this season—the first under Zaidi—may have sealed his fate; the 25-year-old has managed just a .529 OPS across several levels of the minor leagues, though injuries have limited his availability, having appeared in just 12 games. Jones could be an intriguing case for teams eyeing the waiver wire, given his draft history, age, and raw power.
Latest On Rays’ Infield
The Rays are set to welcome back a pair of infielders in the coming days. Rays manager Kevin Cash told Juan Toribio of MLB.com that third baseman Matt Duffy is poised to come off the injured list in next week’s series against Boston, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. Not far behind, it seems, is utilityman Daniel Robertson, who will kick off a minor-league rehab assignment in the High-A Florida State League tomorrow, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
This will mark Duffy’s season debut, as he’s been sidelined by a hamstring strain from the outset. The 28-year-old was Tampa’s preferred option at the hot corner in 2018. Despite hitting only four home runs and slugging .366, Duffy was worth a solid-average 2.4 fWAR on the strength of a high-contact approach and plus metrics at the hot corner (at least in the eyes of UZR). Over four MLB seasons, Duffy sports a career .285/.337/.385 slash (102 wRC+) with above-average defense at third base.
Robertson, who has been out since June 22 with right knee inflammation, was even better than Duffy in 2018, although his offensive output has cratered this season. As a part-time player last year, the former A’s prospect slashed .262/.382/.415 while logging time at all three infield positions. His batted ball metrics never quite backed up that level of production, but the Rays likely still anticipated at least average output at the plate from the 25 year-old moving forward.
Instead, his power has cratered, partially because his already-high ground ball rate has jumped six points from last season. The result: a .202/.311/.281 slash, translating to a 68 wRC+. Nevertheless, there’s room for some optimism about a return to form. Robertson’s elite plate discipline seems to be intact, he’s actually making more contact than last season despite a curious uptick in strikeouts, and his average exit velocity, per Statcast, hasn’t changed.
Things are a little less fortunate for AL Rookie of the Year candidate Brandon Lowe. Topkin tweets that Lowe’s bruised right shin, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg, continues to impede his lateral quickness on fielding drills, meaning “it will still be awhile before he’s back,” as Topkin puts it. This is the second time in a week we’ve heard frustration with the 25-year-old’s recovery process. The Rays, who have lost five straight and now sit two games back in the AL Wild Card race, could certainly use Lowe in the lineup, as the second baseman sports a strong .276/.339/.523 slash.
In the interim, Lowe’s injury likely means more playing time for Duffy, who seems to have been squeezed out at third base by the club’s offseason acquisition of Yandy Diaz, and hot-hitting rookie Michael Brousseau. Joey Wendle has continued to log action at the keystone in Lowe’s absence, as well, but he’s come nowhere close to repeating his solid 2018 production and could see his playing time dwindle as the club’s infield mix gets increasingly crowded.
Mariners Acquire Matt Magill
The Mariners announced the acquisition of right-handed reliever Matt Magill from the Twins in exchange for cash considerations. Minnesota designated Magill for assignment Thursday. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted then, the Twins stood a good chance of losing the 29 year-old on waivers. Instead, they acquire some amount of cash from a Seattle club who would have otherwise claimed him.
Magill has been a solid but unspectacular middle reliever for Minnesota over the past two seasons. This year, he logged a pedestrian 4.45 ERA thanks to a plethora of free passes, but he also struck out an eye-opening 27.1% of batters. He’s averaging 95.92 MPH on his four-seam fastball, per Brooks Baseball, and features slightly above-average spin rates on both his fastball and curveball, per Statcast. There’s some raw material here to work with, especially for a Mariner bullpen light on established performers.
At the same time, Magill’s out of options, meaning he needs to stick with the major-league club or else run the risk of being exposed to waivers. He’s also been hit exceptionally hard despite his quality stuff, so he’s far from certain to bring stability to the club himself.
If things do click in Seattle, he’s controllable for four seasons beyond this one via arbitration, where his lack of an established track record should result in low starting salaries.
Andrew Cashner Would Have Sat Out If Traded To Undesirable Team
Back in May, right-hander Andrew Cashner suggested to Dan Connolly of The Athletic that he’d consider sitting out the rest of the season if the Orioles sent him to an undesirable destination by the July 31 trade deadline. Cashner, whom Baltimore traded to Boston last weekend, confirmed to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com that he indeed would have held out through year’s end had the Orioles dealt him somewhere he didn’t want to go.
“I mean what I said,” he told Cotillo. “This is one of the places I would come. It wasn’t a place that I would ever not come to. We’re talking about the World Series champions. Why would you not come here?”
Philadelphia was the only other team that showed reported interest in Cashner before his trade to the Red Sox, but the Phillies stopped their pursuit because of concerns over his makeup. The well-traveled Cashner then fell flat in his Red Sox debut in a loss Tuesday to the Blue Jays, who roughed him up for six runs (five earned) on eight hits and a pair of homers in five innings. Cashner had been much more productive than that toward the tail end of his Orioles tenure, though, and has managed a playable 4.09 ERA/4.53 FIP with 6.04 K/9, 2.75 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent groundball rate in 101 1/3 innings this season.
As of now, Cashner’s output looks as if it’ll earn him another guaranteed contract in the offseason – if he reaches free agency. The soon-to-be 33-year-old’s current deal includes a $10MM vesting option if he throws 340 innings from 2018-19 or a player option should he amass 360. But Cashner is well short of either figure, having accrued 254 1/3 dating back to last season, so another trip to the open market appears inevitable. Obviously, though, Cashner isn’t willing to simply play anywhere going forward. The hirsute Cashner also isn’t going to shave his beard at a team’s request, which – as funny as it sounds – could have an effect on where he pitches after this season.
Padres Promote Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon
SUNDAY: The promotions of Baez and Morejon are official. The Padres made room for them by optioning outfielder Josh Naylor and righty Trey Wingenter to Triple-A El Paso. They also transferred injured pitchers Adam Warren and Miguel Diaz to the 60-day IL.
SATURDAY: Righty Michel Baez‘s promotion to the Padres from Double-A Amarillo is “imminent,” per the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Baez, who was a nominal starter prospect – and near-consensus top-100 name – prior to the 2019 season, has worked strictly in relief for Amarillo since returning from a back injury in mid-May.
It’s the third in a string of high-profile prospect promotions for the plummeting Padres this weekend, who also recalled INF Luis Urias from Triple-A El Paso and are set to select the contract of touted lefty Adrian Morejon, also from Double-A. The San Diego ‘pen has been in shambles lately: apart from the untouchable Kirby Yates, who’s on pace for one of the best reliever seasons in MLB history, the revolving high-leverage door for the Friars hasn’t yielded a single reliable arm.
Baez’s prospect stock has slid considerably this season, with FanGraphs now characterizing his once-solid command as “fringe” and bemoaning an unforeseen velocity drop in the latter stages of the 2018 season. The 6’8 righty’s size can be a “hindrance,” per Baseball America, who notes that Baez has struggled to repeat his delivery of late. MLB.com is the high team on the 23-year-old: they place him at a solid #70 on the site’s top 100 list.
In 27 innings for Amarillo this year, Baez has set down 38 and walked 11 en route to a 2.00 ERA. Like soon-to-be teammate Morejon, Baez isn’t on the club’s 40-man roster, so two players will need to be jettisoned from the group shortly. The club also must make room for lefty Jose Castillo, who’s set to return soon from a lengthy injury absence.
Pitcher Notes: Braves, Stroman, Mets, Wheeler, Fulmer, Giants
The Braves were among the teams present to scout Marcus Stroman’s latest outing, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Braves are in many ways the perfect partner for a team with a moveable asset like the Blue Jays, as Atlanta is flush with near-ready major league arms, but lacking the consistency it desires as a team positioned for the playoffs. The asking price for Stroman is said to be high – in the area of what the Pirates surrendered for Chris Archer – but Toronto is likely taking the call even if Atlanta starts with one of its ready-but-struggling arms, depending on whom the Blue Jays favor from the group of Max Fried, Bryse Wilson, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright. Landing in Atlanta would reunite Stroman with Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who was the Jays’ GM when they drafted the hurler 22nd overall in 2012.
More on a few other noteworthy pitchers…
- Mets righty and prime trade candidate Zack Wheeler went on the injured list with a shoulder impingement on July 15, but it doesn’t appear that’s going to stand in the way of a possible deadline deal. Wheeler could throw a full bullpen session Sunday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. If that goes well, there’s potential for Wheeler to return in time to make two starts by the July 31 cutoff for trades, Puma observes. As things stand, the Mets are still optimistic Wheeler would net “a solid return” in a deal, according to Puma.
- Tigers righty Michael Fulmer provided an update Saturday on his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in March, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays. “Everything is going according to plan,” said Fulmer, who added he probably won’t pick up a baseball until October or November. The hope is that Fulmer will make it back to the Tigers’ rotation sometime next summer. While lefty Matthew Boyd is Detroit’s top trade chip nowadays, that honor belonged to Fulmer a couple years ago. However, thanks to the former Rookie of the Year’s recent downturn in performance, multiple injuries and his TJ procedure, Fulmer’s trade value is nil at the moment. Still just 26, Fulmer has another three years of arbitration eligibility left, so he could yet reemerge as a valuable starter for the Tigers.
- The Giants added righty Jandel Gustave to their 40-man roster Thursday, in part because he has an opt-out in his minors deal and was drawing interest from other teams, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets (sorry, Henry, but Gustave’s placement on the Giants’ 40-man is not the most obscure transaction MLBTR has covered thus far). As Schulman notes, Gustave possesses an enticing high-90s fastball. The 26-year-old hasn’t been able to harness his stuff into positive results with the San Francisco organization yet, however. Gustave has pitched to a 6.56 ERA/6.08 FIP with 9.26 K/9, 4.24 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent groundball in 23 1/3 Triple-A innings this season.
Rockies Designate Mark Reynolds For Assignment
10:38 am: Hoffman will work out of the Rockies’ bullpen instead of replacing Senzatela in the rotation, tweets Nick Groke of the Athletic. The club’s fifth starter, who is scheduled to start Thursday, remains up in the air.
9:32 am: The Rockies announced they have designated first baseman Mark Reynolds for assignment, clearing space on the 40-man roster for left-handed pitcher Sam Howard. Additionally, the club has optioned right-hander Antonio Senzatela to Triple-A Albuquerque, recalling fellow righty Jeff Hoffman in his place.
The move brings to an end Reynolds’ second stint in Colorado. Soon to turn 36, the longtime power hitter simply hasn’t performed at the plate in 2019. Through 162 plate appearances, Reynolds sports a woeful .170/.290/.311 slash despite calling the most hitter-friendly park in baseball home. While he has continued to sport a keen eye at the plate, evidenced by a 13.6% walk rate, his 35.2% strikeout rate simply became unpalatable. Reynolds is only one year removed from solid offensive production with the Nationals and has a long track record of hitting for power, but as a right-handed hitter who can only play first base, he’s a difficult roster fit. He’ll almost certainly be released in the coming days, before he can explore interest on a minor-league deal from suitors searching for a power-hitting depth piece who’s respected in the clubhouse.
Howard will get his first base of big-league action in 2019 after throwing four innings for Colorado last season. A soft-tosser, Howard converted to relief full-time this season and has seen his production take off in Albuquerque. His strikeout rate in Triple-A is up ten points from where it was last season, perhaps reflecting an uptick in stuff in shorter stints, although his 11.9% walk rate this year is also a career-high. There’s little to lose in giving Howard a look, as the Rockies’ bullpen has a pedestrian 4.93 ERA on the season.
The club’s rotation has fared even worse than the relief corps, with Senzatela partly to blame. Through 17 starts, he’s posted a woeful 6.29 ERA. The 24 year-old does have an above-average 52.8% ground-ball rate, but his 12.3% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate give him the worst K%-BB% of any starter in baseball in 2019 (minimum 80 innings).
In his stead, the Rockies will turn to Hoffman, a former top prospect who, like most of the team’s arms, has struggled in the majors this year. Through seven starts, Hoffman has a 6.75 ERA, having been undone by the home run ball (1.89 HR/9). He’s been even worse in Albuquerque, but unlike Senzatela, he at least has flashed some strikeout stuff and a mid-90’s fastball. That Hoffman is in the majors at all following his abysmal performance this season, though, sums up the freefalling club’s surprising inability to find competent arms to trot out, just a year after boasting one of the best pitching staffs in franchise history.