NL Injury Notes: Kimbrel, Verdugo, Renfroe, Taijuan
Injured Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel is progressing toward a return, but that won’t come until at least the weekend, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports. The big-money in-season signing has been on the injured list with right elbow inflammation since Sept. 1, making him eligible to come back as early as Thursday. Kimbrel’s IL placement came on the heels of yet another disappointing performance, in which he yielded three earned runs on two hits (including a homer) in two-thirds of an inning. He’s one of the greatest closers ever, which is why the Cubs guaranteed him $43MM over three years, yet Kimbrel hasn’t resembled his dominant self this season. While the 31-year-old has converted 13 of 15 save opportunities, he owns a bloated 5.68 ERA with 12.32 K/9 against 5.21 BB/9, and has given up just under three HRs per nine across 19 innings of work.
- The Dodgers clinched their seventh straight NL West title Tuesday, but they’re also dealing with some unwelcome news: Outfielder Alex Verdugo isn’t nearing a return, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. An oblique strain forced the rookie to the IL back on Aug. 6, but he suffered a back injury on a rehab assignment and will sit out “for at least a few days,” Castillo writes. Verdugo has been a valuable contributor this year, having slashed .294/.342/.475 with 2.2 fWAR in 377 plate appearances, but the loaded Dodgers have carried on fine without him thus far.
- Padres manager Andy Green isn’t willing to guarantee that banged up outfielder Hunter Renfroe will play again this season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. For now, Renfroe’s going to rest on account of right elbow and ankle problems. “Hunter has battled through a lot this second half,” said Green, who added, “There have been a number of days he was unavailable and we’ve managed not to talk about it.” We covered Renfroe’s significant second-half struggles earlier Tuesday, though it now seems possible health problems have been a major cause for his summer slump.
- Injuries have prevented Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker from taking a big league mound since April 2018, but he said Tuesday (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) he’s still hoping to make an appearance this year. The 27-year-old sat out the majority of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and has dealt with shoulder troubles this season. However, he threw his first bullpen session in four months Tuesday and came out unscathed. Walker’s absence is among the reasons the Diamondbacks’ starting staff has been shaky this year, though the club has nonetheless stayed in the National League wild-card race.
Pat Neshek Undergoes Hamstring Surgery
Veteran righty Pat Neshek has undergone surgery to repair his injured right hamstring, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports on Twitter. Neshek had been weighing a procedure against other potential courses of action.
Obviously, this news means that the hurler isn’t going to return to the field of play in 2019. It’s all but certain he won’t be back with the Phillies next year, at least not under his existing contract. The club will surely pay him a $750K buyout rather than picking up an option at $7MM.
Whether Neshek will attempt to work back and continue pitching remains to be seen. He doesn’t have anything to prove after 13 productive years in the majors, even if this last campaign did not go according to plan. But the crafty hurler would be sure to find an opportunity to compete for a job in camp if he’s interested.
This was Neshek’s worst campaign in quite some time. He ended up with a 5.00 ERA over 18 innings with just nine strikeouts and five home runs allowed. But he had been on an extended run of productivity before that, including an injury-shortened ’18 effort in Philadelphia in which he pitched to a 2.59 ERA over 24 1/3 innings.
In other Philly bullpen news, the club is seeing progress from righties Juan Nicasio and Seranthony Dominguez, though it still seems that any contributions will come quite late (if at all). The former got back on the bump today while the latter is ten days out from his first work from the hill. Though Nicasio is slated to reach free agency at season’s end, Dominguez could be an important part of the 2020 Phillies relief corps if he can continue to make progress with his elbow health.
Hunter Renfroe’s Second-Half Decline
Just a couple months ago, Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe looked like a legitimate breakout player. As a result, the defensively adept slugger drew plenty of trade interest leading up to the deadline, though the Padres understandably elected against parting with him. This season has since become about looking forward for the out-of-contention Padres, who are reportedly set to count on Renfroe as one of their main outfielders again in 2020. There are clear reasons for that – including Renfroe’s 31 home runs, whopping 22 Defensive Runs Saved, and his three remaining seasons of team control – but they’ll need the 27-year-old to get off the schneid at the plate in 2020 to increase their chances of breaking a seemingly interminable playoff drought.
Although his HR total is prodigious, Renfroe has only been a middling offensive performer this year, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. His .222/.290/.498 line in 462 trips to the plate has led to an unspectacular 99 wRC+. Despite his defensive excellence, Renfroe’s so-so offense has limited him to 1.9 fWAR, essentially making him an average player. There’s value in that, especially on a cheap salary, though Renfroe looked as if he was destined for better not long ago. When the All-Star break rolled around in mid-July, Renfroe had already put up 2.4 fWAR with 27 homers and a 130 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances. Since then, however, he has dipped to a dismal .169/.260/.291 line with four HRs across 173 PA. Renfroe’s minus-0.5 fWAR during the second half of the season ties him for the fourth-worst mark in the game.
If you’re wondering what caused the destruction of Renfroe’s offensive numbers, it starts with a massive downturn in power – evidenced in part by the noticeable decrease in HRs. Renfroe boasted a ridiculous .361 ISO at the break, but the number has plummeted to a nonthreatening .122 during the second half of the season. A mammoth decline in impactful contact is an obvious cause. According to FanGraphs, Renfroe posted a hard-hit rate of 52.1 percent over the first couple months of the year. The figure has fallen to 33.7 since the All-Star Game, while Renfroe has made far less contact in general and seen his strikeout rate soar from 27.3 percent to an even 37.0.
Health may be factoring into Renfroe’s late-season issues, as manager Andy Green said Tuesday (via Dennis Lin of The Athletic) that his production has “suffered because of” a sore elbow and a problematic ankle. Likewise, it hasn’t helped Renfroe’s cause that pitchers have somewhat changed their approach when he has come to the plate, having thrown more sliders against him as the season has progressed, per FanGraphs. Renfroe’s especially vulnerable when dealing with breaking pitches, according to Statcast, which credits him with a .237 weighted on-base average/.219 expected wOBA against those offerings.
By Statcast’s standards, Renfroe’s overall output has been something of a mixed bag. He ranks in the league’s 66th percentile or better in exit velocity and Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric, but his other numbers aren’t as encouraging. For one, Renfroe’s expected batting average – .218 – dwells toward the bottom of the league (third percentile). And his xwOBA (.310; 27th percentile) also doesn’t offer much encouragement, suggesting he has actually been fortunate to hit for a real wOBA (.328) that’s more mediocre than spectacular.
In spite of his second-half woes, it’s evident San Diego views Renfroe as a player who could be part of the solution as it seeks a return to relevance. But if Renfroe’s really going to emerge as a high-end complement to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in 2020, the Padres will need the player who showed up during the first half of this season to reappear going forward. If healthy, perhaps he will.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Shawn Kelley On 2020 Plans
For Rangers reliever Shawn Kelley, it’s Texas or bust in 2020. He tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan that he’ll retire if the organization decides against exercising a $2.5MM club option for his services.
Kelley says he’s comfortable with the Rangers and would “love to come back and do another year.” Otherwise, he’s happy to hang ’em up and “drift off to the sunset.” (He’d do so with a $250K buyout as a parting gift.)
The 35-year-old was dinged a few times after returning from a biceps injury, but has otherwise generally been effective this year. All told, he carries a 4.07 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9.
Kelley has actually rebounded a bit in average fastball velocity (92.3 mph) and swinging-strike rate (11.2%) as compared with his 2018 showing, though he’s clearly not in prime form. As with many other hurlers around the game, Kelley has run into particular trouble this season with the long ball (1.93 HR/9, 16.4% HR/FB rate).
It’s possible to imagine this situation resulting either in a return or a retirement. The Rangers have little in the way of bullpen certainty and may like the idea of retaining the veteran at a palatable rate of pay. But it’s also possible they’ll decide to spend the money elsewhere.
Twins Select Ronald Torreyes
The Twins have selected the contract of infielder Ronald Torreyes. Also heading onto the active roster is righty Kyle Gibson, who was activated from the injured list.
Torreyes will come up to help fill in for some missing pieces. He’ll take the 40-man spot vacated when outfielder Byron Buxton was placed on the 60-day injured list.
This’ll be the first time that Torreyes has appeared in the big leagues this season after seeing action in each of the past four campaigns. He’s a .281/.310/.375 lifetime hitter in the majors. In 330 plate appearances this year at Triple-A, he has turned in only a .256/.289/.406 batting line.
Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss
As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.
This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.
So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…
Castro before July:
- Groundball percentage: 52.2
- Fly ball percentage: 30.9
- Line drive percentage: 16.7
- Pull percentage: 40.8
- Infield fly percentage: 10.7
- Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1
Castro since:
- Groundball percentage: 43.9
- Flyball percentage: 33.3
- Line drive percentage: 22.7
- Pull percentage: 49.5
- Infield fly percentage: 7.6
- Hard-hit percentage: 43.4
All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.
Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Designate Williams Jerez
The Giants have designated lefty Williams Jerez, per a club announcement. That opens a roster space for the return of veteran hurler Johnny Cueto, who’ll start tonight after working back from Tommy John surgery.
The San Francisco organization carried Jerez on the 40-man all year long after picking him up in a late-spring trade. The 27-year-old permitted only a pair of earned runs in his six MLB innings, but allowed six free passes while striking out four.
Otherwise, Jerez turned in solid numbers at Triple-A this year, working to a 3.86 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 over 56 frames. He was especially effective against opposing lefties, holding them to a .574 OPS.
Mariners Promote 4 Prospects, Designate Ryan Court
The Mariners announced the promotion of four prospects: righty Justin Dunn, outfielder Kyle Lewis, infielder Donnie Walton, and righty Art Warren. To create 40-man roster space, the club designated utilityman Ryan Court for assignment.
This multi-part move comes as no surprise, as the Seattle organization was reportedly preparing to call up Dunn (link) and Lewis (link) just yesterday. Both have ranked among the organization’s very best prospects.
Walton and Warren are lesser-known entities, but still hold promise of their own. Both ranked toward the back of the club’s latest top-thirty prospect list at MLB.com, though of course the import of such a designation varies depending upon the depth of a system.
Walton, 25, spent the season turning in good numbers at the Double-A level. Over 558 plate appearances, he slashed a sturdy .300/.390/.427 with 11 home runs. He’d have been eligible to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 draft but for the move to add him to the 40-man.
As for Warren, he already went through a winter of Rule 5 eligibility without being taken. This time, he’ll be protected by the M’s. At 26 years of age, Warren worked to a 1.71 ERA with 11.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 31 2/3 innings as Walton’s teammate.
The 31-year-old Court finally got his first shot at the majors this year in Seattle, but wasn’t able to stake out a claim to a long-term job. It was still a rewarding season, as he logged his first MLB hit and first home run in a brief showing after entering the campaign in the indy ball ranks. Court is a .262/.355/.423 hitter in over a thousand plate appearances at the highest level of the minors.
Byron Buxton To Undergo Labrum Surgery
Twins center fielder Byron Buxton is undergoing surgery to fix his left (non-throwing) shoulder labrum, skipper Rocco Baldelli told reporters including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). That’ll obviously end his 2019 season.
It had emerged earlier today that some kind of surgical outcome was likely. But this still represents a major development in the situation. Precise details of Buxton’s procedure remain unknown — and will depend upon what’s found by surgeons — but the baseline expectation is of a five-to-six-month recovery process. (Via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, on Twitter.)
Spring Training will begin in mid-February of 2020. That’ll be right at the six-month mark from today’s procedure. Depending upon the severity of the damage, extent of the work, and course of rehab, it seems Buxton’s full availability at the outset of camp is possible but hardly assured.
The Twins will be gathering information on Buxton’s progress and outlook throughout the rehab process. But the club is going to have to account for the uncertainty in some manner. Just how it might impact the offseason decisionmaking remains to be seen.
As we examined further in the above-linked story, this news will force the Twins into a sub-optimal outfield alignment down the stretch and into the postseason. It takes a player out of the mix who had been playing at a 5 to 6 WAR full-season pace. Looking forward, Buxton’s limited playing time will limit his ability to secure a big raise on top of his current salary of $1.75MM, though his strong offensive numbers will certainly support a bump. A Super Two qualifier this year, Buxton remains eligible to go through the arb process three more times.
Yankees Designate Adonis Rosa
The Yankees announced today that they have designated Adonis Rosa for assignment. His roster spot will go to fellow right-hander Ben Heller, who was activated from the 60-day injured list.
Rosa, 25, appeared in one MLB contest this year with the Yanks — his first as a professional. He spent most of the season in the upper minors, pitching to a cumulative 4.18 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 103 1/3 innings. Clearly, the New York organization didn’t view him as a significant near-term contributor.
The Yankees also announced that outfield Mike Tauchman has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He is not expected to return to action this year.