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Elvis Andrus Unlikely To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus addressed the opt-out clause in his contract with reporters yesterday, strongly suggesting that he doesn’t plan on testing free agency this winter (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Andrus, 30, plainly stated that he is “for sure” coming back to the Rangers next season before backpedaling a bit and emphasizing that no final decision will be made until the offseason.

It’s not much of a surprise to hear Andrus suggest he’ll forgo the opt-out provision in his eight-year, $120MM contract. As I noted last week when running through the opt-outs around the league, Clayton Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out clause in this year’s free-agent class who can be considered likely to opt out. While Andrus had the next-best case, his chances of opting out are lowered by the fact that he has a second opt-out clause in his contract following the 2019 campaign.

Had Andrus performed at a level commensurate with his 2016-17 output — combined .299/.348/.457 with 28 homers and 49 steals in 1257 plate appearances — there’d have been a strong chance he’d opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM. He enjoyed a strong start to the season for the first couple of weeks but then missed just under seven weeks of action after being hit by a pitch and sustaining a fractured elbow.

Since returning, Andrus’ production hasn’t matched his previous levels, as some may have expected given the nature of his injury. Andrus was hitting .327/.426/.500 through his first 61 plate appearances this year but has stumbled to a .253/.293/.365 slash in 307 PAs since returning. He’s made some improvements since the All-Star break, but it’d still be a stretch to imagine him topping $58MM in free agency this winter — especially considering he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer upon opting out. (Were he to walk away from four years and $58MM, the Rangers would surely feel confident he’d do the same if presented with a one-year offer worth around $18MM.)

Andrus can return for a guaranteed $15MM in 2019 and then forgo the remaining $43MM on his contract in the event that he has a better season at the plate. At that point, agent Scott Boras could pitch him as a quality defensive shortstop who has had three strong offensive seasons in his past four years, with the lone disappointment coming after suffering a fairly notable elbow injury that impacted his swing. And, should Andrus incur additional injuries or see his struggles at the plate continue, he’ll have the safety net of a fairly hefty three-year guarantee on which to fall back.

Latest On The Mets’ GM Search

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Since Sandy Alderson announced that he’d be stepping down as general manager of the Mets due to a recurrence of cancer symptoms, there’s been plenty of chatter as to which direction the Mets will head with their front office. Assistant GM John Ricco and veteran execs J.P. Ricciardi and Omar Minaya have shared Alderson’s duties in the interim, but it seems increasingly likely that the Mets will hire a new permanent GM from outside the organization.

Here’s the latest on their search…

  • Mike Puma of the New York Post writes that there’s a disconnect between owner Fred Wilpon and his son, COO Jeff Wilpon, as to what type of executive should be hired to lead the charge. Fred’s preference, according to Puma, would be to hire an experienced front office veteran with roots in scouting and player development, while the younger Wilpon feels the team needs a more analytically inclined mind atop its baseball ops hierarchy. Additionally, it seems that former Mets manager Terry Collins, currently a special assistant, could take on a larger role next season, though he won’t be considered for the actual GM vacancy.
  • The Post’s Joel Sherman, meanwhile, wrote recently that the goal for the Mets is to have a list of 10 to 12 candidates by month’s end and to have a new GM in place by the time the annual GM Meetings begin on Nov. 4. Sherman runs through a host of potential names and references the same disconnect as Puma. Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro, former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington (a current Jays exec) and Cardinals director of player development Gary Larocque are a few of names prominently connected to the job. Sherman notes that whoever is ultimately named GM will be hired with the understanding that Minaya will maintain a fair bit of power in terms of player personnel decisions. That, along with the general dysfunction that is largely synonymous with the Wilpon name at this point, will complicate the hiring process.
  • Shapiro, for what it’s worth, has downplayed reports connecting him to the Mets and expressed that he remains committed to the Blue Jays organization. SNY’s Andy Martino, though, wrote this morning that in spite of Shapiro’s comments, “people around the team continue to point to” Shapiro as a potential candidate. It’s worth noting that Sherman’s column makes mention of tension between Shapiro and Jays ownership at Rogers Communications, though he’d also be an expensive hire for the Mets. Martino, too, lists Cherington as a name to watch, and he also adds current Orioles GM Dan Duquette to the pile. Duquette, notably, is in the final season of his contract in Baltimore, and there’s been previous speculation as to whether he’ll remain with the club.
  • Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp has also had his name come up in numerous reports over the past week (Twitter link via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick). He’s been with the Royals for more than a decade and has some background in scouting, analytics and business, which could make him somewhat of a compromise between the Wilpons’ disparate preferences, though certainly other candidates would be able to bring a similar combination to the table for the Mets as well.

AL East Notes: Jones, Red Sox, Judge, Mujica

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The Orioles recently benched Adam Jones for the entirety of a three-game series, and Eduardo A. Encina examines the awkward situation, writing that it’s becoming more apparent that the organization doesn’t have long-term plans for Jones. Encina notes that Jones “threw a wrench” into Baltimore’s plans when he vetoed a trade to the Phillies prior to the non-waiver trade deadline but opines that it’s nonetheless surprising to see the popular Jones sitting behind a cast of waiver claims and former Rule 5 picks (e.g. John Andreoli and Joey Rickard). Cedric Mullins is the only well-regarded prospect who’s been playing over Jones — the team did call up DJ Stewart earlier today — making Jones’ lack of playing time in his final weeks as an Oriole all the more curious. Jones’ benching did occur on the road, so perhaps the organization plans to give him more playing time for the team’s remaining home games, where fans can show their appreciation for the 11 seasons Jones has given them.

More from the division…

  • Despite some questions in the Red Sox bullpen, the organization didn’t give much thought to calling up either Durbin Feltman or Travis Lakins in September, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. President of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski tells Bradford that despite a strong minor league showing for each right-hander, neither can be considered a clear upgrade over the relievers currently in the Boston ’pen. A promotion of Feltman would’ve been extraordinarily aggressive, as he was selected in the third round of this year’s draft, though he was labeled a potential fast-track candidate and did pitch brilliantly across multiple Class-A levels. Bradford adds that Lakins’ injury history likely kept the 24-year-old down this year, as the team was wary about subjecting his arm to another two months of innings after he had a stress fracture in his elbow in 2017.
  • Yankees slugger Aaron Judge took on-field batting practice for the first time since fracturing his wrist yesterday and is slated to do so once again today, writes Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. There’s no set timeline for him to face live pitching, however, and an eventual return date is even less clear. Judge said he felt “great,” though a day prior he’d acknowledged that the pain in his still-fractured wrist ranked at about a “four” on a scale of 10. Hoch noted recently that skipper Aaron Boone had previously said Judge wouldn’t resume swinging until his wrist had fully healed, but the lengthier-than-expected absence for Judge looks to have altered those plans.
  • Rays pitching prospect Jose Mujica will miss the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The promising young righty, still just 22 years of age, reached Triple-A earlier this season but spent a bit more than two months on the DL this summer and hadn’t pitched since Aug. 22. He’s previously ranked among the organization’s top 30 farmhands, though not since the 2015-16 offseason, in Baseball America’s estimation. That said, Mujica posted a 3.03 ERA in 154 1/3 innings of Double-A ball last year (albeit with just 5.0 K/9) and turned in a stellar 2.70 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 0.25 HR/9 in 36 2/3 innings of Triple-A work earlier this season. He’ll be just 24 years of age when he returns in 2020, so youth is still on his side as he looks to claim a spot in the team’s plans moving forward. It’s been a tough season for Rays farmhands, as the organization has seen Brent Honeywell, Anthony Banda and Jose De Leon as Tommy John victims in 2018.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Clayton Kershaw’s Next Contract

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The 2018-19 free agent class doesn’t look quite as exciting now as it has promised to at points in the past. Still, it’s a notable assemblage of talent. And at the top of the list of pitchers sits future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.

Of course, that statement comes with some caveats. In particular, Kershaw will need to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his deal. While that once seemed a foregone conclusion, Kershaw has not been quite his vintage self this season — or, in truth, in the campaign prior. With the backdrop of ongoing back problems, there are undeniably some cracks in the armor.

If Kershaw’s recent form has betrayed his mortality, though, it has still also illuminated his ongoing excellence and value. After all, in his 312 1/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, he has compiled a 2.36 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even with the reduction in his velocity and swinging-strike rate on display this year, Kershaw has been among the most effective starters in baseball. And the years of unquestioned dominance that came before still represent an important background factor.

All things considered, there’s not much reason to think that Kershaw can’t beat 2/$65MM in free agency. Whether he reaches the open market could still be in question, to be sure. It’s not hard to imagine a new agreement of some kind with the Los Angeles organization coming together before Kershaw is forced to decide on the opt-out clause (or, if he does exercise it, before qualifying offer decisions are finalized). Then again, he and the team know much more about his medical situation than do the rest of us, so perhaps there’s still some possibility he’ll simply opt into the remainder of the deal.

Regardless of how it comes to pass, Kershaw will presumably end up with a more-or-less market-driven rate of pay, even if a deal comes with the Dodgers before he’s formally a free agent. After all, Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management no doubt have a good idea what they think he’s worth, as does the L.A. front office.

For those of us on the outside looking in, it’s a bit more difficult to gauge. The Dodgers and others will surely be stingy, in particular, with the length of the commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. But the focus here will be on the total cash posted rather than on how many seasons it’ll be spread over. Knowing what we know now, and presuming Kershaw finishes the season at his current trajectory and without any significant new injury issues, which level of total guarantee do you think he’ll sign at?

Orioles Promote DJ Stewart

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The Orioles have announced that outfield prospect D.J. Stewart is heading onto the active roster. His contract was selected today.

A few corresponding moves were announced as well. Righty Cody Carroll and catcher Andrew Susac were both activated, while outfielder Mark Trumbo and righty Pedro Araujo were bumped to the 60-day DL.

Stewart, a former first-round pick, will make it to the bigs in advance of an offseason Rule 5 decision. Clearly, the O’s expect to carry him on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason.

Now 24 years of age, the FSU product has moved steadily through the Baltimore system. He wasn’t able to follow up on a strong 2017 season at the Double-A level, however, as he struggled a bit in his 490 plate appearances this year at the club’s top affiliate. He hit a dozen home runs, swiped 11 bags, and slashed .235/.329/.387 on the year.

White Sox Activate Nate Jones

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The White Sox have activated reliever Nate Jones, per a club announcement. That’ll leave the club’s 40-man roster fully occupied.

Jones hit the DL in mid-June with a pronator muscle strain that ended up sapping much of his season. It’s the latest in a string of maladies in the elbow/forearm region of his right arm. Last year, Jones required season-ending nerve repositioning surgery. Previously, he missed virtually all of the 2014 season and part of the 2015 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It’s not a particularly promising run of arm health, but it’s hard to ignore the results that Jones has produced in-between DL stints. In particular, he worked 70 2/3 innings of 2.29 ERA ball, with 10.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9, in an excellent 2016 season. Though he has thrown only 36 1/3 MLB frames since, Jones has allowed only ten earned runs in that span. He’s still getting swings and misses while pumping upper-nineties heat, though it’s fair also to note that he has also walked five batters per nine.

In the aggregate, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently explored, there’s good reason to imagine the White Sox expect to pick up Jones’s option. It’ll cost $4.65MM, though there’d otherwise be a $1.25MM buyout to pay. For a reliever of his upside, it’s likely a reasonable risk, especially since the deal includes future option seasons as well.

Importantly, while there has been some belief that Jones might be available to the White Sox at a lower price, MLBTR has learned that will not be the case. His contract contemplated two scenarios at its back end. If Jones needed Tommy John surgery before the end of the 2018 season, then there would be a MLB minimum club option in 2019 followed by $3.75MM and $4.25MM club options. If, on the other hand, TJS did not take place, Jones would be controllable via successive club options of $4.65MM and $5.15MM, with a $6MM mutual option for the 2021 campaign.

Now, any uncertainty about the contract values has been resolved: the latter scenario will govern from this point forward. That means that the cost is somewhat higher and, perhaps more importantly, that there are only two more seasons available for control via club option (with the third being a rarely exercised mutual option).

That certainly makes for a tougher decision and raises the stakes somewhat for Jones’s late-season return. Barring a truly worrisome performance, though, it seems fair to guess that the White Sox are rather likely to roll the dice that Jones will be able to stay on the mound in 2019.

Red Sox Activate Chris Sale

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The Red Sox have activated ace lefty Chris Sale, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston was among those to report on Twitter. He is expected to pitch tonight, but only in a limited capacity, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald recently explained.

Sale hit the DL in mid-August after experiencing ongoing shoulder inflammation. With a healthy lead in the division, the focus has long been on ensuring the star southpaw’s postseason availability.

The expectation is that Sale will build back arm strength while pitching at the MLB level. With the end of the minor-league season, it’s the only way to get him game action. Skipper Alex Cora and his staff will be keeping a close eye to ensure Sale doesn’t push too hard, too fast.

It’ll certainly be fascinating to see whether Sale can pick up where he left off and enter the playoffs as a dominant force. He has pitched 146 innings of 1.97 ERA ball this year, with a ridiculous 13.5 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9, so his own standard is a lofty one.

Tigers Select Matt Hall, Designate Johnny Barbato

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The Tigers announced today that they have selected the contract of lefty Matt Hall. To create 40-man space, the organization designated right-hander Johnny Barbato.

Hall, 24, was a sixth-round pick in the 2015 draft, meaning he’d have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter had he not gone onto the MLB roster. Instead, he’ll get a taste of the big leagues before perhaps competing for a job in camp.

Certainly, Hall has had an excellent season thus far in the upper minors. He opened the year in a relief capacity despite generally succeeding in the rotation in the lower minors. But Hall has thrown well enough overall that he worked as a starter upon rising to Triple-A. All told, he has recorded 114 1/3 innings of 2.13 ERA ball on the year, with 10.6 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.

Barbato was also a sixth-round pick and has typically been quite effective in the upper minors. He spent most of the year turning in good numbers at Triple-A, with a 1.45 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, that has not yet translated to the major-league level thus far.

Though Barbato’s MLB opportunities have been limited over the past three seasons, that’s due largely to the outcomes. In his seven MLB relief appearances this year with Detriot, he coughed up nine earned runs on 11 hits (including three home runs) while allowing five walks and managing only a pair of strikeouts.

Drew Smyly Will Not Return In 2018

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The Cubs decided yesterday that lefty Drew Smyly will not make it back onto the MLB roster this season, as Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com was among those to report (Twitter links). Instead, he’ll focus on preparing himself for a full and healthy 2019 campaign.

Smyly, who is now 29 years of age, signed a two-year deal with the Chicago organization last winter after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June of 2017. It includes a $10MM guarantee with $6MM in available incentives for the 2019 campaign.

There had been some hope all along that Smyly could represent a notable late-season addition. Particularly with the problems surrounding many of the team’s other key offseason pitching additions, it’d be nice to have the southpaw available. High-priced righty Yu Darvish is done for the year, while fellow rotation addition Tyler Chatwood has not worked out. In the pen, closer Brandon Morrow is still trying to get back from injury and LOOGY Brian Duensing has endured a miserable campaign.

Surely, with the division race still very much in the air, the Cubs would have given Smyly a look if he was truly prepared. He was able to make a single rehab appearance, but evidently did not respond well enough to make it worthwhile to continue pressing for a 2018 return.

Of course, the contract was signed with full knowledge that there were good odds the first season would be a wash. The Cubs hoped, mostly, that they’d recoup their investment in the 2019 campaign. It’ll be interesting to see to what extent the front office relies upon Smyly in structuring the approaching offseason. At the very least, he’ll be seen as an important part of the depth picture, in the rotation and perhaps also the bullpen, but it’ll be hard to allocate too much faith until he gets on the mound in camp. With no small amount of uncertainty in the rotation mix, the organization figures to face some tough roster questions — beginning with a decision on the team’s option over resurgent veteran Cole Hamels.

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