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Nationals Shut Down Jeremy Hellickson

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Nationals righty Jeremy Hellickson has been sidelined since mid May due to a shoulder strain, and it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be returning in the near future. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com tweeted today that the Nats have shut Hellickson down from throwing due to ongoing soreness in his problematic right shoulder. He’d been on a long-toss program.

Hellickson, 32, was a nice pickup for the Nats on a minor league deal in 2018 when he gave them 91 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 65-to-20 K/BB ratio through 19 starts. That prompted the Nats and Hellickson to reunite on a one-year pact back in February — a deal that promised the former AL Rookie of the Year a modest $1.3MM salary (plus additional incentive opportunities). He’s already picked up $600K worth of incentives, securing $200K bonuses for his third, fifth and seventh starts of the season.

The 2019 season has been an entirely different story for Hellickson, who hit the injured list back on May 19 after seeing his ERA rise to 6.23. After allowing just 11 homers in 91 1/3 frames last year, he’s already served up nine long balls. Hellickson’s average fastball is down from 89.7 mph to 88.5 mph, and he’s seen his BB/9 mark spike from 1.97 a year ago to 4.62 in 2019.

Hellickson was one of three starting pitchers signed to Major League deals this winter, and while it’s hard to overstate Patrick Corbin’s early excellence in the first season of his $140MM contract, the team’s investments in Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez haven’t paid dividends yet. A disastrous bullpen has been the main culprit in Washington’s shockingly poor start to the season, but the tough outings at the back of the rotation have been a significant factor in the Nats’ 23-32 record as well.

With Hellickson out for a yet-to-be-determined period, the Nationals will likely look to Erick Fedde in the fifth spot of the rotation. Based on the pair’s 2019 output, it’s an upgrade for the Nationals. Fedde has a 2.25 ERA with a 27-to-5 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball so far and has also given the Nats 20 2/3 frames with a 2.18 ERA in the big leagues. His 12-to-8 K/BB ratio and a pair of hit batsmen create some cause for concern with regard to Fedde’s MLB showing, but the former first-round pick and top prospect certainly at least merits a look.

Derek Dietrich Turns On The Power

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Reds second baseman Derek Dietrich has seemingly been on a mission to torture the NL Central rival Pirates so far this season. The brash 29-year-old homered off the Pirates on Opening Day and continued his onslaught just over a week later, mashing a pair of HRs and helping spark a brawl in Pittsburgh on April 7. Not content to stop there, Dietrich victimized the Pirates this week for another four HRs in a four-game series, giving him seven in nine appearances against the Buccos.

Dietrich’s most publicized moments have come at Pittsburgh’s expense this season, but the Pirates aren’t the only team he has frustrated. As a .262/.368/.713 hitter through 144 plate appearances, Dietrich owns the majors’ seventh-highest wRC+ (171) among batters who have accrued at least 140 PA. He also leads the league in isolated power (.451) by 51 points over second-place Christian Yelich on the strength of 17 home runs. That’s already a career-best mark for Dietrich, who hadn’t amassed more than 16 in a season since he made his major league debut with the Marlins in 2013.

Dietrich was typically a useful player in Miami across six seasons and 2,132 PA, combining respectable offense (.254/.335/.422 – good for a 109 wRC+) with an ability to line up at several positions. Despite that, the Marlins – unwilling to pay Dietrich a projected $4.8MM in arbitration – designated him for assignment in November. While Dietrich now looks like yet another one who got away for the down-and-out Marlins, it’s worth noting the rest of the league didn’t really want him either during the offseason. Finally, almost three full months after Miami cut Dietrich, he joined the Reds on a minor league deal in February.

Baseball slept on Dietrich over the winter, but he has since burst forth as one of the game’s shrewdest offseason signings. For the Reds, his emergence has been all the more fortuitous given that they have gone all season without injured second baseman Scooter Gennett. Like Gennett, whom the Reds claimed off waivers from Milwaukee entering the 2017 season, it appears Dietrich has gone from under-the-radar pickup to star in their uniform.

The question is: How is Dietrich suddenly one of the league’s most powerful and productive hitters? It seems to stem from a change in approach. Dietrich is pulling the ball more than ever, which is conducive to hitting for power, and looks like the latest beneficiary of the sport’s fly ball revolution. Although he never posted a fly ball rate better than 43.3 percent in a season with the Marlins, he’s currently at 52.2 percent – the sixth-highest mark in the league. As you’d expect from his stat line, Dietrich has made his fly balls count. He’s averaging 348 feet on his flies, a 38-foot increase from last year’s 310, and has significantly upped his exit velocity while putting the ball in the air. Dietrich’s fly balls and line drives have traveled at a 96.7 mph mean after clocking in at 90.8 in 2018, according to Statcast.

In theory, the fact that Dietrich is running a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (.176, compared to .308 in Miami) makes his success all the more amazing. That said, fly ball-heavy hitters aren’t usually candidates for high BABIPs; beyond that, the stat doesn’t factor in homers – which make up more than half of Dietrich’s 32 hits this season. Though there’s a strong likelihood Dietrich’s BABIP will rise closer to career norms as the season progresses, his overall production will inevitably go backward to some degree.

The reality is that Dietrich’s not going to continue hitting dingers on 36.5 percent of fly balls, as only the MVP-winning Yelich broke the 30 percent plateau last season. Dietrich also isn’t some plate discipline savant who controls the zone at an elite level. To his credit, Dietrich’s walking at a career-high 9.3 percent clip and has slashed his strikeout rate by almost 5 percent since 2018 (from 25.4 to 20.8). However, those figures are still just a bit above average. And the left-handed Dietrich has continued a career-long trend of slumping against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a meek .154/.273/.300 line this year. So it’s righties who are going to have to figure out how to handle him. Here’s a tip for them: Dietrich hasn’t done much against inside pitches, as these charts from Baseball Savant show, but has dominated versus most offerings in the middle or outer half. And yet, pitchers have largely lived in Dietrich’s hot zones, evidenced by this heat map via FanGraphs.

Dietrich is unlikely to keep this up (not many could), but that’s not to say his offense will careen off a cliff. True, there’s a 46-point gap between his weighted on-base average (.442) and expected wOBA (.396), yet he still ranks in the top 91st percentile of the majors in xwOBA, per Statcast. If Dietrich manages to produce at anywhere near his xwOBA for the rest of the season, the Reds would surely be ecstatic. They’re paying Dietrich a relative pittance this year ($2MM) and can control him through arbitration in 2020. That could help make Dietrich a valuable summer trade chip if Cincinnati’s out of contention by then. For now, though, the Reds appear to have another Gennett-esque steal in their lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tigers’ Harrison Has Partial Hamstring Tear; Mercer’s Rehab Assignment Halted

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The Tigers’ offseason pickups of Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer (in addition to reuniting the longtime Pirates’ middle-infield tandem) were supposed to help stabilize the middle infield and perhaps give the team a pair of affordable summer trade chips. To this point, though, that hasn’t been the case. Neither infielder has been productive, and now both are faced with notable absences.

Harrison hit the injured list with a hamstring strain yesterday, and Chris McCosky of the Detroit News now reports that the 31-year-old has a partial tear and is could be out anywhere from four to six weeks (Twitter link). Surgery hasn’t been ruled out, but it’s not considered likely at this time. Harrison, who signed a one-year deal worth $2MM this offseason, has batted just .176/.219/.265 with a homer and four steals through 146 plate appearances.

Mercer, meanwhile, has already been out since early May, but his prognosis took a turn for the worst today. Per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter links), Mercer’s minor league rehab assignment has been halted due to what manager Ron Gardenhire termed an acute-on-chronic strain in his right quadriceps. He’s receiving a second opinion, after which point his timeline for a return will become more clear. Mercer has been limited to 19 games this year and managed a tepid .206/.275/.317 slash in 69 plate appearances.

With the injuries, players like Ronny Rodriguez, Niko Goodrum, Gordon Beckham and Dawel Lugo have seen increased opportunities in the infield (Lugo solely at third base, but he’s played second in the past). Unfortunately for the organization, the most productive of that bunch has been the journeyman Beckham, who isn’t a long-term piece in Detroit.

Rodriguez roared out of the gates to a blistering start upon his initial promotion, but his lack of contact has proved glaring, and he’s now hitting .231/.262/.504 in 130 plate appearances. The power has been impressive, but a .262 OBP is tough to overlook. Goodrum was a nice surprise in a super utility role last season and still makes plenty of hard contact (46.8 percent, per Statcast), but he’s hitting .207/.300/.345 in 200 trips to the plate. Lugo has batted .226/.265/.323 in a much smaller sample of 34 plate appearances.

The Tigers can continue to hope for production out of the current options on the roster — Lugo, in particular, has had only a minimal look after a solid showing in Triple-A — but the longer the unit’s struggles continue, the more there’ll be questions about looking to other prospects. Willi Castro, ranked seventh among Detroit farmhands at MLB.com and at Fangraphs (plus ninth at Baseball America), is tearing through Triple-A pitching at a .349/.426/.527 pace. He’s played only 48 games at that level and has benefited from a BABIP north of .400, so there’s some reason to be skeptical, but it’s easy to envision him getting a look at some point this summer. Further down the line, Isaac Paredes is widely regarded as the organization’s best position prospect, and he’s hitting .276/.356/.350 as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He won’t be as near-term an option as Castro, however.

Carlos Correa Diagnosed With Fractured Rib

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4:45pm: Correa has issued a statement on the injury, which occurred off the field (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan):

“I’m extremely disappointed about not being on the field with my teammates. I sustained the rib fracture during a massage at my home on Tuesday. To sustain an injury in such an unusual way makes it even more frustrating. However, I will work hard to get back on the field as quickly as possible to help our team achieve our goal of winning another championship.”

10:57am: Astros star Carlos Correa has been diagnosed with a fractured rib, Mark Berman of FOX 26 reported (via Twitter) and the team has since announced. He’s expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks and will obviously be headed for a stint on the injured list.

It’s a disappointing development for the Houston organization and its 24-year-old shortstop, who had hoped for a fully healthy season on the heels of an injury-limited 2018 campaign. Fortunately, it does not appear this issue is connected to the back and oblique issues Correa experienced last year.

Correa had looked himself in the first fifty games of the new year. Through 214 plate appearances, he carries a hefty .295/.360/.547 batting line with 11 home runs — good for a 143 wRC+.

The injury doesn’t change Correa’s revived outlook at the plate, but it will again impact his earning power. He took down a $5MM salary after winning an arbitration hearing against the ’Stros. That’s a nice start, but not the kind of scratch he’d have commanded with a typical and healthy platform season. Missing time this year will similarly limit his ability to build up a raise in his second (and second-to-last) season of arb eligibility.

Correa joins fellow stars George Springer and Jose Altuve on the injured list. Notably, reserve infielder Aledmys Diaz is also sidelined, creating some obvious challenges in the middle infield.

This being the Astros, there are still ample possibilities on hand. Alex Bregman would be a superstar at shortstop had he not been bumped to third base due to Correa, so he can slide over. The team can shift Yuli Gurriel to third, but after that it’ll need to rely on less-established players.

Infielder/outfielder Myles Straw has been summoned from Triple-A to take the open roster spot. He has played almost exclusively as an outfielder as a professional, but began spending time at shortstop this year at Triple-A. Straw and the just-promoted Jack Mayfield could share time at second base and chip in on the left side of the infield.

Both those players have a good case for a chance at the majors, though it’d be unreasonable to expect them to fill the shoes of Correa and Altuve. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said he’d at least take a look at the external options, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, though he noted that he’s comfortable with the organization’s overall middle-infield depth.

Athletics Likely To Use Jharel Cotton In Bullpen Upon Return

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Athletics righty Jharel Cotton is working his way back from 2018 Tommy John surgery, having thrown seven innings on a rehab assignment at the Class-A Advanced level. However, although he made 24 starts for the A’s back in 2017 and is viewed as a long-term rotation option in Oakland, the organization is likely to utilize Cotton as a reliever upon his return to the roster, manager Bob Melvin told reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos).

Cotton, 27, didn’t pitch at all in 2018, as his torn ulnar collateral ligament was diagnosed during Spring Training. He underwent his Tommy John procedure in mid-March and, as a result, would quite likely be on an innings limit as a starting pitcher. Instead, he’ll work out of the ’pen for the 2019 campaign, presumably with an eye toward vying for a rotation job once again in 2020.

At that point, Cotton will join a rotation mix that looks vastly different than the present group. Sean Manaea will be assured a spot, assuming he fully recovers from shoulder surgery, while righty Daniel Gossett and top prospect A.J. Puk (both also recovering from Tommy John surgery) will be healthy enough to compete for jobs.

Presently, Marco Estrada is on the injured list due to a back issue, leaving the A’s with a bit of a patchwork starting outfit. Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Chris Bassitt and breakout right-hander Frankie Montas are all locked into starting roles, while Daniel Mengden gives them a fifth option. They’re still using Liam Hendriks as an occasional opener, though; he made his second such appearance of the month this afternoon.

That rotation isn’t exactly teeming with star power, but the A’s have a collective 4.18 rotation ERA that ranks 13th in the Majors — and the eighth-best rotation ERA (3.38) over the past 30 days. Fielding-independent metrics aren’t nearly as bullish and feel there’s some regression in order, though the potential return of Manaea near the All-Star break could give the group a strong boost. And, if the A’s can continue to build on their blistering 10-1 hot streak, the A’s could very well be in position to add some arms on the summer trade market — as they did a year ago with Fiers.

As is the case with most starters, Cotton has been much better the first trip through the batting order than he has in while facing hitters for the third time in a game. He’s averaged 93 mph on his fastball and has some impressive swinging-strike rates on his changeup (15.2 percent) and cutter (14.4 percent). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his velocity tick up in shorter stints, and if he can narrow his arsenal to focus on a smaller selection of pitches, he could be an interesting addition to a bullpen that has some question marks in its final couple of spots.

Nationals Sign Jonny Venters

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The Nationals announced that they’ve signed veteran left-hander Jonny Venters to a minor league contract and assigned him to Double-A Harrisburg. The 2018 National League Comeback Player of the Year was released by the Braves earlier this month.

Venters, 34, returned from three Tommy John surgeries and a five-year MLB absence in 2018 to give the Braves 34 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball. The southpaw averaged 7.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 0.26 HR/9 to go along with a superlative 69.1 percent ground-ball rate in that terrific comeback effort. Unfortunately, the 2019 season wasn’t kind to him. Venters appeared in just nine games with the Braves, pitching a total of 4 2/3 innings but surrendering nine earned runs (plus another four unearned runs). He faced 31 batters and allowed more to reach than he retired (nine hits, eight walks).

On the plus side for Venters, his velocity held up (93.3 mph average fastball), but that’s only a small silver lining on an otherwise tough stretch of games. For the Nationals, though, there’s little to lose in terms of giving him a look. The Washington bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster beyond Sean Doolittle, and even he’s begun to slip a bit recently — perhaps due to an elevated workload. Nationals relievers have the worst ERA in baseball by more than a run (7.14), and they rank 28th in FIP (5.27), 29th in xFIP (5.13) and 24th in SIERA (4.38).

Ryan Tepera Undergoes Surgery

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Blue Jays right-hander Ryan Tepera, on the injured list due to an elbow impingement, announced Wednesday that he underwent surgery to address the issue (Twitter link). The team hasn’t made a formal announcement of the procedure yet, nor has it provided a timetable for his return. However, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith points out that manager Charlie Montoyo listed Nathan Eovaldi’s four- to six-week timeline as a possible relevant comparison last week when discussing the possibility of Tepera undergoing surgery.

If that is indeed an accurate comparison, then it seems likely the Jays will be without Tepera for at least the next month. He hasn’t pitched well this season, though that’s not exactly a surprise given the recent revelation that he’s been pitching with an impingement and loose bodies in his right elbow. Through 11 innings, Tepera has a 6.55 ERA with nine strikeouts against six walks (two intentional) and four home runs allowed. His fastball, which averaged 95.1 mph from 2015-18, was sitting at 93.7 mph in 2019.

Prior to this year, though, Tepera was a solid late-inning arm for the Jays. From 2016-18, Tepera logged a 3.53 ERA and a 3.91 FIP with 9.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9 and a 44.7 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers may not be overpowering, but Tepera found plenty of success in Toronto despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park in a notoriously difficult offensive division.

Given that success, his modest $1.525MM salary in 2019 and the rebuilding state in which the Blue Jays find themselves, Tepera looked like an obvious summer trade candidate heading into the season. Now, he’ll possibly be sidelined into July, leaving him minimal time to demonstrate his health for scouts from rival clubs. Depending on exactly when he’s able to get back on a mound, it may simply be more likely that the Blue Jays hang onto him into the offseason. Tepera is controlled for two years beyond the current campaign, so there’s no great urgency to move him. And, if he shows well over the final few months of the season in his return from surgery, most interested parties would surely chalk up his early struggles to an aberration stemming from the since-corrected elbow troubles.

Red Sox Place Mitch Moreland On IL, Change Bullpen Mix

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. First baseman Mitch Moreland is headed to the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain, helping to free up roster space for some tweaks to the team’s bullpen mix.

Lefty Josh Taylor will be promoted for his first taste of the majors. He had already been added to the 40-man roster last fall to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. The Sox also sent down Travis Lakins after his tough outing last night, recalling fellow right-hander Colten Brewer.

Moreland had been down for a few days already, though his absence had been attributed to a knee contusion. He has also dealt with minor back issues in the recent past. Rather than pushing him to return, the Sox will allow the left-handed-hitting first bagger some time to recuperate.

Thus far at Triple-A, Taylor carries a 2.91 ERA with 29 strikeouts and nine walks. The 26-year-old gives the Sox a much-needed southpaw presence in their relief unit. As we discussed earlier this morning, the Boston pen has struggled to retire opposing lefty hitters. Taylor has actually struggled quite a bit against lefty hitters this year in the highest level of the minors, surrendering a cumulative .286/.364/.500 batting line, though he has carried more typical platoon splits in prior seasons.

Mariners Place J.P. Crawford On Injured List

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12:10pm: Crawford is indeed headed to the IL, with infielder Dylan Moore coming up to replace him on the roster, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter). Manager Scott Servais says the sprain isn’t believed to be too serious but will keep Crawford sidelined for at least a few weeks. (Via Shannon Drayer of 710 Seattle, on Twitter.)

1:11am: Shortstop J.P. Crawford left the Mariners’ game against the Rangers on Tuesday with an apparent left ankle injury. He’ll undergo X-rays, though a stint on the injured list is already considered likely, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.  Crawford departed after an eighth-inning rundown on the base paths and needed assistance getting off the field (video here via Greg Johns of MLB.com).

Crawford’s not even three weeks into his big league tenure with the Mariners, who promoted him May 10 when fellow infielder Dee Gordon went on the IL. The 24-year-old Crawford performed well in 67 plate appearances between the call-up and the injury, slashing .279/.343/.426 (112 wRC+). Before that, the former star prospect hit .319/.420/.457 with 19 walks against 25 strikeouts in 138 trips to the plate with the Mariners’ top minor league affiliate in Tacoma.

Crawford’s output has been an encouraging sign for the Mariners, who acquired him from the Phillies as part of a December blockbuster trade centering on Jean Segura. This injury could temporarily halt the potential building block’s progress, though. It would also serve as another blow to a Mariners infield that lost Gordon and Ryon Healy to the IL earlier this month. However, Seattle does have an obvious shortstop fill-in, Tim Beckham, who has started most of the team’s games there this season. Since Crawford’s promotion, the M’s have cut Beckham’s playing time.

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