J.T. Realmuto To Undergo MRI On Knee
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is dealing with a right knee issue that will require an MRI, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports. Realmuto felt a “popping” in the back of his knee during the Phillies’ blowout loss to the Indians on Sunday, though the belief is that he’s not battling a significant injury, Zolecki writes.
The Phillies are just about done in the National League, where they’re six games back of a wild-card spot as the final week of the season begins. Considering the franchise oversaw an ultra-aggressive winter but is now days away from increasing its playoff drought to eight years, it’s fair to say this season has been a letdown for Philly. However, last offseason’s trade for Realmuto – previously a star with the division-rival Marlins – has been anything but a disappointment. Realmuto has been the game’s premier catcher for the second straight year, having parlayed quality offense, terrific base running and defensive virtuosity into 5.6 fWAR/4.3 bWAR through 593 plate appearances.
The Phillies have seemingly little to play for at this point, which figures to increase their cautiousness in regards to Realmuto’s health. He’s slated to enter his final season of arbitration control in 2020, but the Phillies have made it clear that they want to extend the franchise backstop before a potential trip to free agency in another year-plus. Realmuto’s future is one of the key issues general manager Matt Klentak & Co. will address in the offseason.
Three Needs: Miami Marlins
We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, and White Sox. Now we’re on to the lowly Marlins, the National League’s worst team …
1. Give Away Fewer Corner OF/IF Plate Appearances
The Marlins are not good, and that’s not surprising. There wasn’t a path to being good in 2019 and there isn’t a path to being good in 2020, either. But that doesn’t mean the team ought to be plugging in replacement-level, low-ceiling players — especially in areas of the field where there’s opportunity.
There’s value in having some veteran clubhouse members and perhaps also in rewarding some hustling, marginal major leaguers. But the Marlins need to be maxing out their opportunities to dig up interesting talent and develop their own players. And in 2019, they dedicated a few too many outfield and corner infield plate appearances to less-than-promising players.
The Marlins did give chances to potentially interesting late-bloomers Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez with generally middling results. But it’d be nice to see the organization take chances on more and younger players with so many possibilities flying around the waiver wire. No doubt there are some underappreciated bats out there just waiting for an opportunity. In 2019, the Fish have handed over a thousand total plate appearances at corner positions to Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson, Martin Prado, Isaac Galloway, and Peter O’Brien.
2. Chase Upside With Extensions
We know the Marlins are willing to do multi-year deals with existing players since they just inked one with shortstop Miguel Rojas. But that was more about locking in a solid, internally valued veteran for a brief stretch than it was the pursuit of a value-laden contract with a young talent.
Not every rebuilding team is in a position to consider lengthy pacts with young players. The Marlins are. They’ve surely seen enough good things from Brian Anderson to pursue a deal. There’s a strong argument for talking with Jorge Alfaro, who’s also entering his final winter before arbitration. On the pitching side, Caleb Smith and Sandy Alcantara are interesting targets.
It might seem premature to begin committing future payroll space when the Marlins still don’t know when they’ll be able to compete again. But this isn’t just (or even primarily) about locking in pieces for this organization. It’s about attempting to make good assets even better ones — even if that entails some risk — whether for a future Miami contender or for trade bait.
3. Load Up The Bullpen With Interesting Arms
It took some doin’, but the Marlins managed to finish the season with the worst bullpen in the NL East — and the rest of baseball as well, if that needed to be specified — by measure of fWAR. And that’s including Nick Anderson and Sergio Romo, who logged 1.5 fWAR before being traded away. Absent those two hurlers, this was a remarkable -3.7 fWAR unit.
That’s not the be-all, end-all measure of relief work. Rebuilding teams don’t really need reliable bullpens. But it’s awfully dispiriting to a team (let alone a fanbase) to watch winnable games melt away. And, more importantly, it points to an opportunity.
The Marlins know the drill here. They already cashed in on the aforementioned Anderson, who was acquired for a song. And they just picked up lefty Josh Smith on a similar premise. There ought to be more where that came from. In addition to waiver targets, the Marlins can consider bounceback veterans with some degree of upside along with minor-league free agents.
MLBTR Poll: Joe Maddon’s Future
To say Cubs manager Joe Maddon’s stint with the franchise has been a success would be a massive understatement. Since the Cubs hired the former Tampa Bay skipper in November 2014, they’ve amassed a sterling regular-season record of 469-335 and made the playoffs four consecutive times. Undoubtedly, though, the greatest triumph during Maddon’s days atop the Cubs’ dugout has been the World Series title they won in 2016, ending a 108-year drought for the North Siders. It’s likely Maddon will always be a beloved Cubs figure as a result of that victory and the rest of his accomplishments with the organization, but after a half-decade, the 65-year-old’s tenure may be winding down.
Although he’s in the last year of his contract, Maddon said just last month that he expects to manage the Cubs again in 2020. However, that was before a late-season collapse by Chicago, which led the NL Central race by two games over Milwaukee at the time of Maddon’s comments. Now, not only are the Cubs out of contention in the division with a week left in the season, but they’re very likely to miss the playoffs for the first time during the Maddon era. At 82-74, they’re seven games back of the archrival Cardinals in the Central and four behind the Brewers and Nationals in the wild-card hunt. With the season on the line, the Cubs have dropped six straight games, all but knocking themselves out of the race in the process.
Thanks in large part to their recent skid, the Cubs have gone a dismal 9-12 in September. It would surely be unfair to solely blame Maddon for that – they’ve dealt with injuries to the likes of Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Cole Hamels, after all, and big-money closer Craig Kimbrel can’t seem to buy a save – but the Cubs could nonetheless elect to go in a different direction at manager. Barring a last-second surge (plus a horrible finish for the Brewers or Nats), president of baseball operations Theo Epstein at least figures to seriously make over the Cubs’ roster during the offseason. Do you expect a change in the dugout to accompany that?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Joe Maddon manage the Cubs in 2020?
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No 76% (9,040)
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Yes 24% (2,921)
Total votes: 11,961
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 9/23/19
Click here to read a transcript of Monday’s chat with Connor Byrne.
Adam Wainwright Set To Max Out Contract Incentives
When the Cardinals re-signed veteran righty Adam Wainwright over the winter, there was no shortage of second-guessing. But the move has worked out for all involved, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Wainwright will max out his incentives package when he makes his thirtieth start on the year this evening.
The contract came with just $2MM in guaranteed money — a reflection of Wainwright’s subpar output in the preceding campaigns. It called for an array of bonuses tied to the volume of work he performed as a starter and/or reliever. As it turns out, Wainwright earned and held a rotation job all year long while only spending a brief stretch on the injured list. He was thereby able to tack on a hefty $8MM to his earnings for the season, the final $2MM of which is earned with tonight’s outing.
Wainwright says it all turned out as hoped:
“They would be incentives that if I hit that would be great for the team and they would be glad to pay me for it. And if it didn’t hit I didn’t deserve it based on what I’ve done the last couple of years. … That’s what I expected to do. It’s good to come through on things you expect to do.”
There’s no doubt the St. Louis organization is pleased as well. Wainwright didn’t just fill innings, he did so with aplomb. Through 162 1/3 innings, he carries a 3.83 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 and a 49.3% groundball rate. ERA estimators view him as much the same pitcher he was in the prior few seasons — as a roughly mid-4.00 true-talent performer — but Wainwright finally had a bit of good fortune in a memorable campaign that could be his last.
It remains to be seen whether Wainwright will look to extend his career past 2019. It seems reasonable to presume the veteran will want to return to St. Louis if he does desire to continue pitching. From the team’s perspective, it’s not hard to imagine a return again making sense in some scenarios. For now, all involved are surely content with focusing on the upcoming postseason run.
The Cards opened the present campaign with $162MM and change on their MLB payroll. Despite foregoing significant in-season acquisitions, they’ll end with over $170MM owing to the extra cash due to Wainwright. Just how high the tab has gone is hard to say, but it seems unlikely that the Cards will reach their end-of-year payroll highpoint ($182.7MM in 2017). Regardless, it’s money well spent for a club that’s headed back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Latest On Sam Dyson
Twins reliever Sam Dyson has a consequential medical appointment today, with the expectation being that he’ll require a significant procedure to his ailing shoulder. It’s not clear whether the Minnesota organization has any way of salvaging the transaction that brought Dyson into town, but LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports that the team has begun exploring its options.
Dyson’s troubles cropped up not long after he changed hands, which made for inopportune timing. Eyebrows were no doubt raised when the veteran righty informed his new organization that he had experienced problems since mid-July. After all, the Twins had found no reason to fear this sort of situation when they checked over the medicals at the time of the deal.
Unsurprisingly, Neal reports, the Twins have “investigated” the situation since it arose. That has included “discussions” with the Giants’ front office. To this point, as Neal puts it, “The Twins have been unable to find any evidence that the Giants had knowledge of an injury.”
It isn’t clear whether Dyson has spoken directly on the subject. But there’s no public indication that he had informed his prior organization of the health issue before the deadline. And he has made clear through prior comments that he simply believed he was dealing with typical soreness that wasn’t a major concern.
Assuming that the Twins don’t end up coming across any evidence that anything untoward occurred, it seems they’ll have no recourse vis-a-vis the Giants. In that case, the question becomes one of dealing with an unfortunate medical situation as with any other player.
The trouble for the Twins is that Dyson’s anticipated procedure comes with a lengthy rehab process. Per the report, the 31-year-old wouldn’t be expected to return until some time in the middle of next season. If that’s the best-case scenario, it’d be awfully difficult to tender Dyson a contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility. He’ll be due a raise on his $5MM salary. Given all the uncertainties inherent in a shoulder procedure, that seems like a hefty bill.
It’s certainly possible the Twins could attempt to work out some kind of multi-year arrangement, as we’ve seen with other injured players who sign during the recovery process. Otherwise, it is possible that the organization has already received the entire return for its investment of three young players (Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis and Kai-Wei Teng).
Ned Yost Announces Retirement
Royals manager Ned Yost will officially retire following the completion of the 2019 season, the team announced today in a press release. He’ll finish his career with the most victories in Royals franchise history and is the only Royals manager to ever make consecutive World Series appearances. Yost issued the following statement in today’s release:
“With the development of our young players and our returning veterans, I feel and hope the worst is behind us in this rebuilding phase of our organization. My plan all along was to get us through the rough times then turn it over to a new manager to bring us the rest of the way. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed my time here as your manager and will never forget the good and the hard times we had together as an organization and a fan base.
I will never forget the fact that you fans supported us through it all. Kansas City will always have a special place in my heart, and I look forward to rooting for the Royals on to their next World Championship very soon.”
Yost, 65, has managed the Royals since the 2010 season, logging a collective 744-836 record in that time. Prior to that, he’d spent parts of six seasons skippering the Brewers, with whom he won 457 games. Overall, Yost will complete his managerial career with a 1201-1338 record, two American League pennants and one World Series title. He’s 32nd all-time in total games managed at the MLB level, and his current total of 1201 wins ranks 45th — though he’ll have the opportunity to tack on a few more victories and six more games managed between now and Sunday’s farewell game.
Yost’s retirement has been widely expected, as the skipper himself has hinted in the past that he isn’t likely to see a rebuild all the way through. There’s no firm word yet on a successor to Yost, of course, but it was speculated last November when the Royals hired former Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny as a special advisor that he was a strong candidate to take the reins following Yost’s retirement. The Royals won’t make any formal announcement on the matter for now. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Matheny is indeed “expected” to be the team’s next manager, but MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports that the Royals have yet to commit to Matheny as the new manager (Twitter link).
Of course, even if that was the plan last November, much has changed in the Royals organization since Matheny’s hire. Owner David Glass has agreed to sell the team to Kansas City entrepreneur John Sherman, and while it’s been reported that general manager Dayton Moore will receive a contract extension once the new ownership regime formally takes over, it’s not as clear that the new owners will have the same vision for the manager and his coaching staff.
Giants’ Baer On Bumgarner, Offseason
The 2019 season has been a transitional year, to say the least, for the Giants franchise. Ownership hired Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi last offseason and named him president of baseball operations, and the Bruce Bochy farewell tour is nearing its completion as the end of the season looms. A perhaps improbable midseason hot streak may have kept the Giants from completely tearing down the roster, but it’s eminently possible that impending free agent Madison Bumgarner‘s scheduled Sunday outing could be his last in a Giants uniform.
Giants CEO Larry Baer joined Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle for a half-hour interview (audio link) over the weekend to discuss a host of Giants topics. Giants fans, in particular, will want to give the entire interview a listen for Baer’s discussion of potential changes to Oracle Park, ticket prices, his perspective on the time he spent away from the team during his recent suspension and his overall impressions and takeaways from Zaidi’s first year on the job. But from a pure roster standpoint, specifically with regard to Bumgarner, Baer doesn’t speak as though a parting of ways is a foregone conclusion.
“I think Farhan has had ongoing discussions with his representatives throughout the 2019 season,” Baer says when asked about the possibility of an extension. “Characterizing them — I don’t want to get into what is or isn’t being discussed, but I know they’ve kept open lines of communication.”
The 30-year-old Bumgarner likely has two starts left as he looks to put the finishing touches on his healthiest season since 2016. He’s already topped the 200-inning mark for the eighth time in his illustrious career and is currently sporting a 3.86 ERA (3.78 FIP, 4.18 SIERA) with averages of 8.7 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings pitched. It’s not quite the dominant Bumgarner of old, but it’s nevertheless been a sharp rebound effort that has helped to quiet any concerns that might’ve existed surrounding his durability in the aftermath of 2017’s dirt bike debacle.
The question for Baer, Zaidi, the Giants and other interested parties, of course, will be one of how long and how lucrative an offer they’re willing to make to outbid the competition for Bumgarner. The lefty won’t turn 31 until next August, so he likely has at least a couple of prime years remaining. But the free-agent market has become increasingly harsh for players on the wrong side of 30, and we’ve seen fewer and fewer teams willing to push an offer past the hard number at which they value a particular asset. The days of impassioned bidding wars may not be over entirely, but they appear to be waning.
Furthermore, Zaidi’s track record with the Dodgers doesn’t suggest that he’ll adopt a “whatever it takes” mentality to keep Bumgarner. The largest sum of new money the Dodgers promised to a player under Zaidi and Andrew Friedman was Kenley Jansen‘s five-year, $80MM contract — and Schulman reiterates in the podcast that he’s heard that was more an ownership-fueled decision than a front-office-driven reunion. The Dodgers also extended Clayton Kershaw shortly before Zaidi’s departure, but that deal “only” promised Kershaw an additional year and $28MM on top of the two years and $65MM from which he could’ve opted out. Baer references that as a “top-of-the-market” contract and points to the Giants’ own pursuit of Bryce Harper under Zaidi in suggesting that they won’t necessarily shy away from free agency — so long as a deal makes sense.
“It’s not so much, ‘Hey do you have the money for Player X or the money for Player Y, and how much does ownership want to spend?'” Baer explains. “It’s more — how does Farhan and the staff want to bake the cake? The way he’s been successful baking the cake is doing a lot from within, making strategic moves when they make sense. … It’s not about being averse to spending money, but how do you really want to put the whole thing together? When you think about the way it was put together [from] 2009 on, when we won, it was put together pretty much internally. We would complement with free-agent signings a little bit — mainly [additions] at the break, at the trade deadline.”
Again utilizing the cake-baking analogy, Baer states that he believes Zaidi & Co. will do so “with depth, and with looking at current players and what we have in the farm system.” There’s nothing that expressly rules out a series of notable offseason additions, but it’s also far from the aggressive tone that ownership reps from other teams have offered up in recent offseasons (e.g. the Phillies’ “stupid” money decree or the Astros’ public acknowledgment of efforts to add a high-end starter). And while near the end of the interview, Baer suggests that contending for the postseason is a goal every year, including 2020, he spends more time preaching the importance of “taking another large stair-step” forward next season. Progress, he contends, can be measured by the “energy around the Giants,” which he expects to improve in 2020.
Given the Giants’ history with Bumgarner, it’d be a surprise if they didn’t have a significant presence in his offseason market, but beyond that obvious connection, Baer’s comments hardly seem like a portent for aggressive spending on the free-agent market.
Jason Kipnis To Undergo Surgery On Tuesday
Sept. 23: Kipnis will undergo surgery to repair the injury tomorrow, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
Sept. 17: An MRI performed on Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis revealed a fracture in the hook of the hamate bone in his right wrist, the team announced Tuesday. The team is currently scheduling a followup appointment for him, but surgery is expected to be required, which would sideline Kipnis for four to six weeks and ostensibly remove any chance of him appearing in a potential postseason series. Cleveland has recalled infielder Andrew Velazquez to add some infield depth in the wake of the injury.
The injury not only brings an end to Kipnis’ 2019 season but could very well bring an end to his career with the only organization he’s ever known. Cleveland’s second-round pick in the 2009 draft, Kipnis was a heralded top prospect who made an immediate impact upon debuting in 2011 and eventually signed a six-year, $52.5MM contract extension covering the 2014-19 seasons. That contract carries a $16.5MM option for the 2020 season, but the Indians are likely to opt instead for a $2.5MM buyout given Kipnis’ recent decline. It’s possible that he could be brought back at a more affordable rate, but both he and the organization will be able to explore alternative options once he reaches free agency.
Kipnis, a two-time AL All-Star, signed the contract early in the 2014 campaign. At the time, he was a 27-year-old coming off a superlative .284/.355/.452 (130 OPS+) showing. He’d swatted 17 home runs, swiped 30 bases and played generally solid defense at second base during his breakout 2013 campaign and looked every bit the part of a potential building block in Cleveland. Injuries, namely an oblique strain, may have hampered Kipnis in 2014, as he floundered through a lackluster season. But he bounced back with a second All-Star nod in 2015 and turned in another strong effort in 2016. Between those two seasons, Kipnis batted a combined .289/.357/.460 with 32 home runs and 27 steals.
Since that time, it’s been a steady downhill trajectory for Kipnis, though. This season’s .245/.304/.410 slash is well below league-average production (84 OPS+), and dating back to 2017 he’s managed only a .236/.305/.403 output. Along the way, he’s been slowed by shoulder, hamstring and calf injuries in addition to his current wrist issue. He’ll quite likely hit the open market on the heels of that unproductive trio of seasons as he heads into his age-33 campaign, making a one-year deal the likeliest outcome for him.
The Indians, meanwhile, will look to a combination of Velazquez, Ryan Flaherty and Mike Freeman to pick up the slack at second base. Velazquez, who has a career .260/.316/.415 batting line in 163 games of Triple-A experience, is in the lineup and getting the nod tonight. He only appeared in a dozen games with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate this season, spending the rest of the season in the Rays organization. Velazquez joined the Indians in an early July trade — he was injured at the time, hence the minimal time with Cleveland’s top affiliate — so he’d be postseason-eligible should the Indians secure a Wild Card spot and wish to carry him.
AL Notes: Semien, Orioles, Astros
For those actively searching for a player ready to assume Anthony Rendon‘s former title as the game’s “Most Underrated” player, Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien is making a valid case for himself in 2019. As Martin Gallegos of MLB.com notes, Semien scored his 120th run of the season on Sunday, placing him just three runs behind Reggie Jackson 1969 record for most runs scored by an Athletic in a single season (link). Besides that possibly impending accomplishment, it’s important to note that the 28-year-old Semien has done more than just cross the plate in 2019. Among AL shortstops, his 32 homers place him 3rd, his 90 RBIs are good for 2nd, and his 7.2 WAR valuation places him behind only Houston’s Alex Bregman at his position. However you slice it, 2019 has been a banner year for the former Cal Bear, who will likely garner MVP consideration at season’s end.
Semien’s near-peerless production has been a large reason behind Oakland’s 2.0-game cushion on all Wild Card competitors. He’s likely due a sizable raise in his third trip through arbitration this offseason, as his $5.9MM salary this year represents one of baseball’s biggest bargains.
More notes from around the league on a quiet Sunday eve…
- Yesterday, we passed along word of one dissatisfied ex-employee of Orioles GM Mike Elias’–namely, former special assignment instructor BJ Surhoff, who felt disrespected by Elias’ handling of his dismissal. Despite that bit of scuttlebutt, Elias is feeling good about his organization’s direction now that he’s had nearly a calendar year to direct its progress, as he told Roch Kubotko of MASN Sports in a wide-ranging interview (link).“When we came in here, the big league team (had) the worst record in the league last year,” Elias told Kubotko. “The farm system was ranked in the 20s…We had no real international scouting function, a minimalist analytics group. All of that’s changed. We’ve got our program going internationally. We’re signing players, we’re competing for players out there. We’re building towards a bigger analytics staff. The farm system’s taking a huge jump this year.” There are several other items of note in the article itself, among them his support of manager Brandon Hyde (who did ‘Great’ in 2019, in Elias’ estimation) and his expectations for the club in 2020.
- The Astros were finally able to pop the corks on champagne bottles that had remained on ice through Friday and Saturday, as Sunday saw the team capture its third consecutive AL West title. In a well-written piece from the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome, manager A.J. Hinch credits mentality–not the team’s embarrassment of stars–as the source behind Houston’s success (link). “We just keep on keeping a winning culture, a winning mindset. We show up ready to play every day,” Hinch told Rome. “It’s the thing I’m most proud of. We just stay current in the moment.” Also of note in Rome’s article is a rundown of the club’s utter dominance of its AL West opponents in 2019; the club has won 32 out of its last 38 games at home against AL West competitors, en route to an overall 51-19 record against divisional foes this year.