Jason Heyward’s Quietly Productive Season
Outfielder Jason Heyward entered the majors as a can’t-miss prospect in 2010, three years after the Braves chose him 14th overall in the 2007 draft. Heyward made good on the hype in his first at-bat on Opening Day, smashing a three-run homer off Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano, and never really looked back from there in his first season. During a rookie campaign in which he didn’t turn 21 until August, Heyward posted 4.6 fWAR on the strength of tremendous offensive production and right field defense. Little did anyone know Heyward wouldn’t again approach the .277/.393/.456 slash and 134 wRC+ he recorded as a rookie.
Heyward did remain a quality hitter from 2011-15 with the Braves and Cardinals, albeit not as formidable as he was during his initial campaign. Still, combining the above-average offense, stellar defense and well-regarded base running he displayed over his first several seasons, he landed an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Cubs entering the 2016 campaign. Heyward was part of the Cubs’ drought-breaking World Series team in the initial year of his deal, in which he delivered a behind-the-scenes rain delay speech that may have helped the team overcome the Indians in Game 7.
Title aside, the Cubs mostly haven’t gotten the bang for their buck they wanted from giving Heyward one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. During his first three years in a Cubs uniform, Heyward slashed a paltry .252/.322/.367 (85 wRC+) in 1,562 plate appearances. Heyward continued to flash terrific defense during that period, but the overall package was worth just 4.1 fWAR – less than he registered in four individual seasons before heading to Chicago.
Heyward did manage a league-average 2.0 fWAR in 2018, indicating he was hardly a lost cause, though his offense was middling at best for the third consecutive season. This year has been a different story, however. Across 320 trips to the plate, the 29-year-old has hit .273/.364/.471 (116 wRC+) with 14 home runs – already his highest total as a Cub and his most in a season since 2013. With 1.4 fWAR at the 80-game mark, Heyward’s on pace for his most valuable year as a Cub. The figure’s still not excellent, in part because Heyward has struggled as a center fielder this year, but it’s respectable for a player whose Cubs tenure has been a disappointment overall.
The question is whether the above-average offensive version of Heyward has truly returned. If we’re to believe Statcast, maybe not. Heyward’s expected weighted on-base average, .324, ranks below the league mean and lags well behind his .355 real wOBA. Likewise, Heyward’s expected slugging percentage (30th percentile), hard-hit percentage (37th percentile), average exit velocity (54th percentile) and expected batting average (61st percentile) all range from well below par to a bit above it. The left-handed Heyward’s also continuing a career-long trend of having difficulty against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a horrid .200/.262/.300 line and a 48 wRC+ this season.
On the other hand, Heyward’s showing off an impressive ability to draw walks that has helped buoy his numbers. With a 12.5 percent walk rate (his highest since his rookie year) against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate, Heyward’s K/BB ratio ranks 25th in the majors. Heyward’s also displaying way more power than he has in recent years, evidenced in part by his aforementioned home run spike. His isolated power (.199) is his greatest since 2012 and sits 84 points higher than the ISO he combined for during his first three Cubs seasons. Heyward’s doing much more damage throughout several zones compared to last year, as FanGraphs’ heat maps show (2018, 2019).
One cause: Heyward’s hitting far fewer infield fly balls than he did earlier in his Chicago stint. An infield fly’s essentially an automatic out, and Heyward hit them at a 16.9 percent rate over the prior three seasons. That number has shrunk to 10.4 this year. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Heyward has upped his hard contact by 6.1 percent compared to 2016-18 and decreased his soft-hit rate by almost 8 percent, according to FanGraphs. Heyward has also logged a 12.2-degree launch angle which ranks as his loftiest in the Statcast era.
None of this is to say the Cubs should be content with what they’ve gotten from Heyward during his run with the team. In fact, they’re stuck with Heyward, who won’t be opting out of the remaining four years and $86MM on his contract during the upcoming offseason. However, he has been a legitimate bright spot this year on a team that has been something of a letdown overall. The Cubs do hold a National League playoff spot at the moment, but not by much. They’ve been slumping since late May and have won just 45 of their first 85 games. Heyward certainly hasn’t been part of the problem, though.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Release Kendrys Morales
The Yankees announced Tuesday that first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent. New York designated the veteran switch hitter for assignment last week.
It’s been a tough season for Morales, 36, who has posted a combined .194/.313/.253 batting line with two home runs in 201 plate appearances between the Athletics and Yankees. Morales is in the final season of a three-year, $33MM contract that he initially signed with the Blue Jays, who traded him to Oakland on the eve of their season opener in 2019. Despite his struggles this year, Morales notched a solid .249/.331/.438 batting line with 21 homers and 15 doubles in 471 plate appearances with Toronto a season ago. Any team that signs Morales would only owe him the prorated portion of the league minimum for any time he spends in the Majors.
Korea’s NC Dinos Sign Christian Friedrich, Jake Smolinski
6:10pm: Smolinski has been granted his release by the Rays, tweets Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times.
10:00am: Korea’s NC Dinos are engineering some mid-season changes to their slate of foreign players. The club has wrapped up a deal with the indy ball New Britain Bees to purchase the contract of lefty Christian Friedrich, as first reported by the ALPB News Twitter account (link).
It seems the Dinos have eyes on another former major leaguer as well. Outfielder Jake Smolinski, who has been playing with the Rays’ top affiliate, is nearing a deal with the KBO club, according to baseball writer Sung Min Kim (Twitter link).
Teams in the Korea Baseball Organization are limited to three foreign players, among other regulations on spending. Accordingly, the Dinos will need to part ways with some existing players to facilitate these moves. Former big leaguers Christian Bethancourt and Eddie Butler will evidently be released to make way.
Friedrich, 31, has thrown nearly three hundred MLB innings, but the former top-100 prospect hasn’t cracked the bigs since 2016. He sat out all of last season but had shown well in the Atlantic League, posting 63 frames of 3.00 ERA ball with one strikeout per inning and 2.1 BB/9.
As for the 30-year-old Smolinski, he faced a tough path up to the majors in Tampa Bay. But the five-year MLB veteran has been hitting well this season at Triple-A, where he carries a .270/.360/.504 slash with a dozen home runs in 286 plate appearances.
Astros Designate AJ Reed For Assignment
The Astros have designated minor league first baseman AJ Reed for assignment in order to open a 40-man roster spot for right-hander Jose Urquidy, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via Jake Kaplan of The Athletic).
Reed, 26, once rated among the game’s top 20 prospects, per Baseball America, but simply hasn’t panned out as the organization hoped. He’s hit just .153/.253/.244 and punched out 50 times in 150 Major League plate appearances, and while he has solid overall numbers in Triple-A, this year’s .224/.329/.469 line has been underwhelming. Reed’s strikeout rate has jumped 23.7 percent in 2018 to 29.8 percent in 2019, but he’s still walking at the same strong 12 percent clip he’s managed in each of his three prior seasons in Triple-A.
Houston will have a week to trade Reed or attempt to pass him through outright waivers, although given his former prospect pedigree, it seems likely that he’d be claimed. A team like the Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Marlins, Mariners or Blue Jays would have little to lose by picking up Reed and giving him a look in the Majors down the stretch in 2019. The Orioles are stuck with Chris Davis‘ contract at first base but could still give Reed a look between first and the DH slot; general manager Mike Elias was Houston’s scouting director when Reed was taken in the second round of the 2014 draft.
Reed is in his final option year, so beginning in 2020, he won’t be able to be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers. But for the time being, any team that does pick him up would be able to freely send him back and forth between Triple-A and the Majors.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Red Sox Designate Oscar Hernandez For Assignment
The Red Sox announced that they’ve designated catcher Oscar Hernandez for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for right-hander Trevor Kelley, whose previously reported promotion is now official. Right-hander Mike Shawaryn was optioned to Triple-A to open a spot on the 25-man roster.
Hernandez, 25, was with the Red Sox earlier this season when Sandy Leon was on paternity leave, but he didn’t get into a game during his brief call to the Majors. He hasn’t appeared in the big league since 2016 with the Diamondbacks, who took him with the top pick in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft. Hernandez saw only minimal time with the D-backs over the next two seasons and hit .167/.239/.262 in a tiny sample of 47 plate appearances in the big leagues.
A defensive-minded catcher, Hernandez has regularly posted solid framing numbers in his minor league career and has thrown out 41 percent of potential base thieves. Solid as he is behind the plate, he’s not much of a threat in the batter’s box. Hernandez carries a paltry .190/.240/.344 batting line in 431 Double-A plate appearances and just a .204/.273/.286 slash through 277 career trips to the plate in Triple-A. Boston will have a week trade Hernandez, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.
Orioles Select Asher Wojciechowski, Designate Matt Wotherspoon
The Orioles announced today that they have selected the contract of just-acquired hurler Asher Wojciechowski. He’ll take the roster spot of fellow right-hander Matt Wotherspoon, who was designated for assignment.
In other roster machinations, the Baltimore organization reinstated righty reliever Josh Lucas from the 10-day injured list. To create space, the team optioned Tom Eshelman, who took a spot start for the club yesterday.
The O’s had selected Wotherspoon to the roster in late June, but he was tagged for eight earned in just 4 2/3 innings over two appearances. He’s through 34 1/3 innings of 4.93 ERA ball at Triple-A, where he carries 10.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
Notable International Signings: 7/2/19
The 2019-20 July 2nd international signing period is officially underway, though it’s not exactly laden with suspense. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.
Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Throughout, we’ll be citing to the reporting of Baseball America (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) along with analysis from Fangraphs. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Here are a few key deals:
- Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees: Everyone’s top target is reportedly holding strong on his commitment to go to the Bronx. The deal is said to be for $5.1MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, with an announcement expected this evening. Dominguez is a switch-hitter who’s said to possess five-tool ability. The Fangraphs team is sufficiently impressed to run him all the way up to the #61 overall MLB prospect ranking right out of the gates (via Kiley McDaniel, on Twitter). The Yanks also have struck a $1.2MM deal with outfielder Jhon Diaz, Sanchez tweets. He was the 18th-rated player on the MLB.com board but ran all the way up to #7 at Fangraphs.
- Robert Puason, SS, Athletics: Another player who’ll command about $5MM, Puason is a toolsy shortstop with big upside. He was said to have a deal in place with the Braves before that team was slapped with international sanctions. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta organization wasn’t actually punished for agreeing to terms early (though that widespread practice is officially forbidden) but rather for structuring a group deal with Puason’s trainer, as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explains on Twitter.
- Luis Rodriguez, OF, Dodgers: The value on this one is unknown, but BA’s Ben Badler has photographic evidence of the signing (Twitter link). Rodriguez gets top-three billing from Fangraphs. The Los Angeles club is also in agreement with righty Kristian Cardozo, who’s also considered one of the thirty best players available.
- Bayron Lora, OF, Rangers: Baseball America has made this connection for some time; Sanchez tweets that it’s a $4.2MM deal for the slugging prospect. Shortstops Maximo Acosta and Zion Banister are also members of the Texas signing class. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) has the former at $1.6MM and the latter at $835K. As he notes, the Texas organization will need to acquire some added pool capacity to make the math work.
- Erick Pena, OF, Royals: This is another signing called in advance by the BA crew. Sanchez has the bonus at $3.8MM (Twitter link). FG labels Pena “a well-rounded outfielder with considerable physical projection.”
- Ronnier Quintero, C, Cubs: Occupying the #6 spot on the boards of both Fangraphs and MLB.com, Quintero will follow Willson Contreras from Venezuela to the Chicago organization. The Cubbies also have a deal with fellow top-ten-ish prospect Kevin Made, a shortstop. Sanchez puts the Quintero deal at $3MM and Made’s mark at $1.7MM. Another Venezuelan backstop, Brayan Altuve, will cost the Cubs another million bucks, seemingly setting up the organization for a search for some added pool money.
- Roberto Campos, OF, Tigers: The Detroit organization popped for a hefty $3MM to secure the services of the Cuban outfielder, per Badler (via Twitter). Campos defected in somewhat dramatic fashion several years ago at just 13 years of age. He wasn’t listed among the best prospects, but Chris McCosky of the Detroit News indicates on Twitter that the Tigers like his bat quite a bit.
Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, per Sanchez and/or Badler:
Twins Outright Ronald Torreyes, Activate Adalberto Mejia
The Twins announced today that they have outrighted infielder Ronald Torreyes off of the team’s 40-man roster. His spot was needed for hurler Adalberto Mejia, who was activated from the 60-day injured list.
Mejia is heading back onto the active roster. He’ll take the place of Lewis Thorpe, who was optioned back to Triple-A after showing well in his MLB debut.
Torreyes, 26, hasn’t appeared in the bigs since wrapping up a three-year stint with the Yankees. He has been a high-average, low-power hitter in the bigs but has scuffled this year at Triple-A. The versatile infielder owns only a .179/.219/.358 slash. He has shown a bit of a relative power burst, with five home runs in 114 plate appearances, though that’s a common story in an explosive International League offensive environment.
As for Mejia, he’ll look to get back on track after an ugly opening to the season. He was sidelined for a lengthy stretch with a calf strain. Through 134 innings in parts of four seasons in the majors, he owns a 4.50 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.
Yankees Place Luke Voit On 10-Day IL
The Yankees announced today that first baseman Luke Voit is headed to the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with an abdominal strain; the placement is retroactive to June 30th.
To take his place on the active roster, the club promoted first bagger Mike Ford. In other news, the club brought up southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. in place of righty Chance Adams, who was optioned back to Triple-A.
Voit has been sidelined for the past few days but had hoped to avoid an IL placement. It seems he’ll require at least a bit longer to rest than initially expected, though there’s no indication to this point that it’s a long-term malady. The AL East-leading Yanks have already weathered several other, more significant injuries without batting an eye.