Closer Updates: Athletics, D-Backs, Royals
Let’s check in on a few ninth-inning situations from around the game …
- The Athletics are engineering a change in their closer situation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Just-minted All-Star Liam Hendriks is going to be relied upon to secure final-inning leads for the foreseeable future, she indicates. Blake Treinen had performed the job with aplomb last year but hasn’t been nearly so trustworthy in 2019. He has been issuing a dizzying number of walks of late and took a loss in his most recent appearance after returning from a brief injured-list stint. Hendriks, meanwhile, is humming along at a 1.29 ERA clip through 48 2/3 innings, with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He has only permitted a single long ball this year, with a paltry 1.8% HR/FB rate. That’ll need to hold up, at least to some extent, if he’s to succeed with an exceptionally flyball heavy approach; his current 0.56 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest in his career.
- While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
- In more forward-looking news, surprise Royals closer Ian Kennedy is settling nicely into his new gig, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. “I]t’s fun to be good at something again and contribute,” says the former starter. While his big contract will run out after 2020, the 34-year-old Kennedy says he anticipates continuing his career thereafter. “You can sign one-year or two-year deals,” he explains, “because even though you’re older, teams know you can still pitch and help a team. You look around the league and you see that all the time.” We’re still a ways away from considering Kennedy as a free agent, but perhaps he will have a shot at a productive run through his mid to late-thirties. Of more immediate concern for the foundering K.C. club is whether Kennedy can be turned into a trade chip. With $16.5MM salaries this year and next, there’s little chance of moving all of the money, but Kennedy’s relief revival makes it reasonable to expect that some kind of deal can be structured to save the rebuilding organization some cash.
Latest On Marlins’ Draft Signing Efforts
After a few recent deals hit the books, the Marlins were left with the two top remaining unsigned players from June’s Rule 4 amateur draft. Fourth overall choice J.J. Bleday and #35 draftee Kameron Misner have yet to agree to terms, though it seems there’s general optimism — for the former, in particular — that they’ll end up signing on.
The deadline for reaching agreement is July 12th at 5pm eastern. It’s not at all infrequent to see a few nail-biters, though this signing season has been notably free of drama. After Bleday and Misner, the loftiest selection that isn’t yet in the books is 67th overall pick Josh Smith (Yankees).
President of baseball operations Michael Hill did not express any concern with the two key draft pieces, both of whom were star collegiate outfielders. “We’re encouraged with both, and hope to get it taken care of and get them out as soon as possible,” he tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.
In the case of Bleday, who just wrapped up a championship run with Vanderbilt, it seems it may only be a matter of time before he’s under contract. Frisaro tweets that a deal is “getting closer to being finalized” while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman says in his own tweet that the sides are “moving toward a deal.” Both indicate that the bonus is likely to be right near the slot value of $6,664,000.
As for Misner, a competitive balance round A selection who hails from the University of Missouri, there seems at least to be a bit more uncertainty. Heyman says that the Marlins are “believed” to have made an at-slot offer of $2,095,800. Misner and his reps may be running the clock in hopes of commanding more, but it’s not clear whether that’s even a realistic possibility. There’s no indication at present that he’d consider returning to school; as Frisaro rightly notes, that’s a risky option for a college junior.
By my count, the Marlins have spent to the limits of their existing bonus pool. They saved on several players but went over slot for second-rounder Nasim Nunez and fifth-rounder Evan Fitterer. Teams can exceed the allocated values by 5% without sacrificing any future draft picks; tallying the MLB.com tracker bonuses and adding that padding to the already signed players puts the Fish at about $7K shy of the line. In other words: there’s no room to pay one of their two remaining unsigned players more than their slot value unless the other takes less.
Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher
The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.
Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.
Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.
According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.
While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.
Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Odubel Herrera Suspended For Remainder Of Season
Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera will be suspended for the remainder of the season, the league has announced on the heels of a report from Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter). Commissioner Rob Manfred determined that Herrera violated the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy.
Criminal charges were brought against Herrera after his arrest in Atlantic City on May 28th. At the time, it was alleged that Herrera had caused visible injuries to the arms and neck of his 20-year-old girlfriend. Those charges were dropped recently because the alleged victim did not wish to pursue prosecution. The league policy vests authority in Manfred to find a violation of its terms regardless of the presence of formal legal action, successful or otherwise, by authorities.
Though Herrera has been on administrative leave since the end of May, the suspension will formally be leveled retroactive to June 24 and will run for 85 games in total. That will cost Herrera just over half of his $5MM salary this season. He’ll be precluded from participating in the postseason this year and also be required to participate in a treatment program.
Herrera has agreed not to appeal the determination. That’s a common stipulation reached in these matters, prior to the formal imposition of punishment. This suspension is one of the lengthiest yet to come down from Manfred’s office. Previously, Jose Torres (100 games), Hector Olivera (82 games), and Roberto Osuna (75 games) were among those to have the dubious distinction of being hit with penalties of similar magnitude.
The Phillies have released a statement on the matter, saying that the organization supports the suspension and is “encouraged by Odubel’s acceptance of his discipline as an indication of his willingness to learn from this and change his behavior appropriately.” The Philadelphia organization owes him $7MM next year, $10MM for 2021, and $3.5MM in total buyouts for a pair of ensuing club options.
Herrera issued his own statement via the MLBPA (Twitter link). He acknowledged “inappropriate behavior” but did not specify what that constituted. Herrera further states: “I acted in an unacceptable manner and am terribly disappointed in myself. I alone am to blame for my actions. I’ve taken meaningful steps to assure that nothing like this will ever happen again.”
Mets To Re-Sign Dilson Herrera
The Mets have reached a minor-league deal to re-sign infielder Dilson Herrera, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Herrera had just opted out of his original minors pact with the New York club, but did not find a preferable opportunity elsewhere and elected to return.
Herrera has been off to a rousing start at the plate this year. Through 256 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s carrying a healthy .258/.355/.566 slash with 17 home runs. And it’s easy to forget that he only turned 25 in March.
Nevertheless, while he received other offers to join affiliates, Herrera was unable to command a MLB roster spot. He chose to take his chances on receiving an eventual call-up from the Mets, whose scuffling play could potentially lead to a mid-season sell-off that might create some openings.
Herrera was once seen as a future piece for the Mets, who picked him up in a 2013 swap, gave him a brief but unsuccessful MLB debut, and shipped him to Cincinnati in the middle of the 2016 season. He didn’t reach base enough in a showing last year with the Reds to lay claim to a job there, then re-joined the Mets on a minors deal.
Tigers Extend Al Avila
The Tigers have struck a new deal with general manager Al Avila, with the team announcing the move following a report from Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. It’s said to be a multi-year deal.
Avila’s precise new contract terms aren’t yet known, but he had previously been working under an agreement that ran though the 2020 campaign. Clearly, then, ownership has given him a strong vote of confidence and clear mandate to continue the organization’s rebuilding effort.
Outwardly, the Detroit organization has struggled massively since it installed Avila following the ouster of long-time GM Dave Dombrowski in the middle of the 2015 season. The Tigers made a run at contending in the ensuing season, but fell short of the playoffs. Ever since, the club has been dreadful, racking up two-straight 98-loss campaigns and carrying a 28-54 record entering play today.
There obviously have been positive developments in the team’s talent pipeline, which was notably dry at the time Avila took the helm. The Tigers cracked the top-ten farm rankings of MLB.com at the start of the 2019 season, though they didn’t fare quite so well in the most recent rankings of Baseball America and Fangraphs. All would agree that the Tigers have some premium talents now in the system, led by recent 1-1 draft choice Casey Mize and fellow hurlers including Matt Manning, Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser, and Alex Faedo. All but Perez, who was picked up in the Verlander swap, were recent top Tigers draft choices.
Some would argue those improvements have not been substantial enough, or haven’t come as quickly as they should have. There’s a case to be made, to be sure, but it’s also fair to point out that Avila had an exceptionally difficult slate of contracts to deal with. Unlike the division-rival White Sox, whose best veterans were relatively youthful and playing under appealing extensions, the Tigers hit the reset button with a host of massive contracts. The returns achieved for the Tigers’ veterans don’t seem terribly fruitful at present, but it’s also hard to say in retrospect that Avila could or should have done better at the time for well-compensated players such as Justin Verlander (link), Justin Upton (link), Ian Kinsler (link), Justin Wilson and Avila’s own son, Alex Avila (link). It’s not as if the Tigers ever had much hope of moving Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann — or Victor Martinez and Anibal Sanchez, whose contracts have since expired — which has made it hard to fully draw down the club’s payroll.
If there’s one deal that’s really raised questions, it’s the J.D. Martinez swap. But indications were at the time that the market was much more limited than was generally supposed from the outside; perhaps the most questionable aspect of the organization’s decisionmaking was not to move Martinez earlier. The timing question is certainly relevant also to now-injured hurler Michael Fulmer, who might have brought back a haul had the Tigers marketed him early in his career. There’s an argument to be made that the team also missed a window on Nicholas Castellanos, who was in at least some demand at previous points but can now only be marketed as a rental piece this summer.
It remains to be seen how Avila will handle not only Castellanos, but controllable pitchers Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene, at this year’s deadline. But he’ll enter the summer trading period with the full backing of ownership and a lengthy timeline upon which to cast his gaze.
Whatever one’s perspective on Avila’s work to date, Tigers chairman Chris Ilitch made clear that Avila has handled his position as the organization prefers. As Ilitch put it in a prepared statement: “It’s clear to anyone that follows Tigers baseball that our organization is undergoing a significant transformation. I’ve been impressed with Al’s leadership and focus, and the steadfast way he has led our baseball operations since becoming GM.”
Mariners Designate Mike Wright
The Mariners announced today that they have designated righty Mike Wright for assignment. His roster spot was needed for fellow right-hander Matt Wisler, who is active after being acquired yesterday.
Wright, 29, landed with the M’s in late April and ended up being designated and outrighted by the Seattle org. He earned another shot after an effective run at Triple-A, but was obviously seen by the team as a fringe roster piece.
In 29 1/3 innings this year, Wright carries an ugly 8.28 ERA. He has coughed up six home runs and 45 total base knocks, but does have a solid 30:12 K/BB ratio. Wright has never managed to sustain success in the majors; he’s allowing more than six earned per nine over 258 career frames.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 7/5/19
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Tigers Rumors: Boyd, Castellanos, Jimenez, Greene
The Tigers’ asking price on lefty Matthew Boyd continues to be an impediment for interested teams, Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported this week on the Big Time Baseball podcast. Heyman notes that multiple GMs from other clubs used the phrase “over the top” when describing Detroit’s ask on Boyd, who whiffed 13 hitters in yesterday’s win but also continued his recent struggles with keeping the ball in the park by allowing a pair of homers. Boyd has fanned a ridiculous 32 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2019 and walked just 4.5 percent of them; that K-BB% of 27.5 trails only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, so he’s in some elite company with regard to his combined ability to miss bats and avoid walks. However, Boyd also allowed only seven homers through his first 12 starts (72 2/3 innings) but has now served up 12 long balls in 34 1/3 innings dating back to June 2.
Boyd is still just 28 with three and a half seasons of control remaining to go along with his elite K/BB skills (and a $2.6MM salary). His penchant for serving up the long ball also has to be a source of trepidation as teams weigh a pursuit of the lefty, though.
More chatter on the rebuilding Tigers…
- Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press provides an excellent look at a number of trade chips for the Tigers, listing potential suitors and, in some instances, pulling back the curtain a bit on previous trade talks. For instance, Fenech writes that the Tigers and Astros discussed a trade involving Nicholas Castellanos last summer, with Houston offering outfielder Derek Fisher in return. Castellanos’ stock has dipped since last year and he’s now a rental, but Fisher’s stock hasn’t exactly risen itself since last July. That still seems like a lofty ask for the Tigers to make for only two months of Castellanos, but the prior interest is nevertheless noteworthy now that Castellanos appears a near-surefire bet to be traded.
- In addition to closer Shane Greene, who is as obviously available as any player in baseball, right-hander Joe Jimenez is also available in trade talks, per Fenech. Multiple clubs, including the Mets and Rays, have inquired on Jimenez — a 24-year-old once heralded as Detroit’s future close. Jimenez averages better than 95 mph on his heater and has no issue missing bats (12 K/9 since 2017), but his control has long been shaky and he’s averaged 1.93 HR/9 in 2019. He’s also controlled through the 2023 season, so the Tigers have zero urgency to move him. Fenech adds that the Dodgers have inquired on Greene, though if anything it’d be more surprising if the bullpen-needy L.A. club hadn’t done so by now.
Corbin Martin Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Astros righty Corbin Martin is down for the rest of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Martin had been pitching at Triple-A on optional assignment after debuting in the majors earlier this year.
Entering the 2019 campaign, the 23-year-old Martin was graded as one of the game’s top 100 prospects and seen by the Houston organization as a key near-term depth piece. He already took five MLB starts for the club in just his third season as a professional.
Martin wasn’t able to establish himself in the Astros rotation, working to a 5.59 ERA with 19 strikeouts and a dozen walks over 19 1/3 innings. He was done in by the long ball, coughing up eight. But Martin is hardly the first young hurler to have some early hiccups and had turned in good results at Triple-A prior to his promotion.
This injury dents both the depth and the upside of the Houston pitching staff, a strong unit that nevertheless seems a likely area to upgrade at the trade deadline. The loss of Martin comes amidst ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brad Peacock. There are plenty of other options to patch things up for the time being — Jose Urquidy just got the call; Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez are among those available at Triple-A — but it’s hard to imagine the ‘Stros won’t look far and wide for new arms. Indeed, it seems that pursuit has already begun.
All indications are that the injury occurred after Martin’s demotion; Luhnow specifically said so this afternoon, in fact. (Via Rome, on Twitter.) If that is indeed the case, then Martin will not accrue MLB service time while he is sidelined. Given the typical year-plus layoff occasioned by a TJ procedure, it’s likely that Martin won’t be seen again at the game’s highest level until late in 2020 or early in the 2021 campaign.