AL Central Notes: Indians, Abreu, Allen
The Indians never so much as made a contract offer to Michael Brantley before he inked a two-year, $32MM deal in Houston this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports within a broader look at the club’s struggles to retain top stars. Nightengale interviews both Brantley and CC Sabathia about their emotional departures from Cleveland as part of a piece that wonders whether Francisco Lindor‘s eventual exit is anything less than a foregone conclusion. For his part, Lindor calls Cleveland “home” and adds that he hopes to stay before more vaguely stating: “When that time comes, we’ll decide.” Lindor’s long-term future has been particularly in question since Indians owner Paul Dolan ominously told fans to “enjoy him” while the team has him under control.
Indians fans will want to give the column a read not only for talk of Lindor’s future but also some heartfelt reminiscing from both Sabathia — “I cried like a baby when I was traded” — and Brantley. Both players offer nothing but fond memories of the city, the organization and the fanbase.
More from the division…
- Jose Abreu‘s contractual status with the White Sox has been an ongoing story throughout Chicago’s rebuild. While he’s long been a logical on-paper trade chip, Sox brass has maintained that the first baseman’s clubhouse presence and leadership is virtually indispensable; both sides have openly stated a desire to continue the relationship beyond his current contract, but no deal has come to pass. Now, with Abreu months from free agency, GM Rick Hahn touched on the subject again — discussing the delicate balance of cold, hard statistical value and less quantifiable intangible means of value. “That’s the more, unfortunately, clinical side of things is, ‘OK, a right-handed hitting first baseman who’s produced at this level over the last few years at this age, what do you project going forward and what’s the value of that?'” Hahn asked rhetorically in an interview with The Athletic’s James Fegan. “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.”
- Since signing a minor league deal with the Twins, right-hander Cody Allen has pitched four shutout innings in Class-A Advanced Fort Myers, allowing three hits and no walks while striking out four hitters. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that Allen has made some mechanical adjustments to use his core and legs more effectively, and the Twins will move him to Triple-A Rochester shortly after the All-Star break. Allen’s stock tumbled in 2018 and cratered earlier this season when he was released by the Angels, but he’s a known commodity for Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, who was in the Cleveland front office for most of Allen’s peak with the Indians. Whether he can return to form following his latest change of scenery is anyone’s guess, but Allen is a nice flier to have in the upper minors as Falvey and general manager Thad Levine peruse the trade market for bullpen reinforcements.
MLBPA Chief Tony Clark Discusses CBA, Juiced Ball
MLB Players Association executive director Tony Clark chatted with the media today as part of this week’s All-Star festivities. The Twitter feeds of Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Eric Fisher of the Sports Business Group feature many of the key comments. Those interested in reading more about the labor situation should also read this interesting look at the efforts of Clark and other union leaders from Tyler Kepner and James Wagner of the New York Times.
Clark emphasized just now notable it was that the union and league have launched negotiations now, well in advance of the expiration of a collective bargaining agreement. He didn’t shy away from a lofty goal, stating: “We are interested in restoring meaningful free agency.”
The MLBPA is chasing other goals as well, including putting a stop to service time manipulation, increasing the marketing of players, and boosting compensation for young players that haven’t yet reached arbitration eligibility. On that last score, Clark says that “a young player needs to be fairly compensated for what he’s doing.”
As ever, the question remains just what alternatives can be proposed to create the desired outcomes. In part, MLB teams’ collective shift away from free agent spending is a reflection of the volume of young talent now rising to the majors. That speaks in favor of boosting pre-arb spending, but the capital side of the equation surely won’t boost the compensation of such players unless there are corresponding savings elsewhere.
Clark notes that the $555K league minimum is only that. “You can pay players more,” he says. “Teams are choosing not to.” But it isn’t clear why organizations would come forward with across-the-board raises for young players when there’s nothing compelling it. And it’s also fair at least to note that some teams have gone well over the minimum, especially for star players. That they have done so on an essentially ad hoc basis reflects the simple fact that the current CBA does not require more.
It still isn’t clear just what universal approach the players would like to accomplish, not that they necessarily want to put forth a complete vision at this stage. That’ll ultimately be necessary if Clark and co. want younger players to grab a bigger slice of the pie — or, perhaps, get the piece of the action that the owners seem to have taken away from free agency (not that they’d see it that way). Perhaps there are ways to find some extra cash to bring to the players’ coffers; Clark did note the ongoing influx of gambling money (and potential problems along with it).
On some level, though, the discussion will have to involve moving resources from one class of player to another. It’s at least somewhat curious, then, that Clark also indicated it was “not yet” necessary for a radical overhaul of the general arbitration and free-agent systems of compensation — a system that he has said previously “doesn’t work” in its current form. He did say that he has broached the concept of ending the amateur draft, which would assuredly represent a dramatic change in approach (albeit one that seems quite unlikely to gain traction and that might result in undesirable side effects).
Clark also addressed the matter of the increasingly regular long balls finding their way out of the field of play. He declined to subscribe to any particular conspiracy theories, but did say that he has clearly noticed the jump: “I believe the ball suddenly changed, and I don’t know why.”
That matter is not directly related to the labor situation, but it has loads of potential to impact the transactional market and is certainly a subject in which the union will take great interest. Given the strange degree of intrigue surrounding the MLB ball in recent years, perhaps it’s also a subject that the union can utilize for a smidgen of public relations leverage. And the rise in dingers may actually create some opportunities to shake up the labor market. The arbitration system, for instance, will struggle to react. It’ll take some creativity and foresight to take advantage (and avoid disadvantage) on the union side from disruption of this sort.
White Sox To Promote A.J. Reed
The White Sox will bring just-acquired first baseman A.J. Reed right onto their active roster, the young slugger tells Rick Semmler of Indiana’s WTHI (via Twitter). Reed had initially been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte but says he was informed he’ll meet the big league club in Oakland.
It’s not yet clear what the corresponding move will be for the Chicago organization, which snagged Reed from the Astros in a recent waiver claim. The White Sox were in need of another lefty bat after parting ways with Yonder Alonso, who struggled in brief action. Perhaps it’s unsurprising, then, that they’ll hand over an immediate opportunity to Reed.
The former second-round draft pick would obviously not have been freely available had he performed to expectations, but the White Sox can afford to have greater patience and perhaps offer a new perspective in attempting to draw out the long-evident talent. Now 26 years of age, Reed struggled in his only extended MLB action back in 2016.
While he has mostly performed well at Triple-A, Reed hasn’t forced his way onto a deep Houston roster and has clearly lost much of his prospect luster. This year has been a particular struggle, as he carries only a .224/.329/.469 slash line with a dozen long ball in 225 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors. In this booming offensive environment, that’s actually about ten percent below league-average productivity. Though he’s still walking at an even 12 percent clip, Reed has also gone down on strikes in nearly three of every ten trips to the dish.
Sonny Gray Reflects On Yankees Tenure
Reds hurler Sonny Gray isn’t bitter about his tenure with the Yankees, but that doesn’t mean he’s in denial about his struggles there. As Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes, the 29-year-old All-Star values his time in New York precisely because of the difficulties he faced.
Gray says his experience with the Yanks was “absolutely” a positive one, even though he ended up being left off the postseason roster on the heels of a brutal regular season (4.90 ERA in 130 1/3 innings).
“I think everyone kind of knows that New York wasn’t a great fit for me, place for me, last year,” says Gray. “It just didn’t seem to work out, for whatever reason. But looking back, I wouldn’t change one thing about it.”
Quite often, parting transactions leave at least one involved party with hard feelings. Not so here. Gray facilitated the three-team deal that delivered him to Cincinnati by agreeing to a three-year extension (plus option). That contract now appears to be quite an appealing one for the Reds, who also acquired lefty Reiver Sanmartin in the deal. But it also wasn’t a bad bit of security for Gray to achieve at the time, particularly given his wavering output in two of the three preceding seasons.
On the other side of the swap, the Yanks got some nice parting gifts. Outfielder Josh Stowers came aboard when the club shipped former Reds prospect Shed Long straight to the Mariners, who have already received big-league contributions from Long. And the New York organization just used the comp pick it received from the Cincinnati club to select southpaw TJ Sikkema. (The original deal to acquire Gray from the A’s also hasn’t stung the Bronx Bombers — not yet, at least.)
Gray says he’s stronger for the difficult experience. He certainly has bounced back with aplomb, slinging 90 1/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with 10.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. By most metrics, he’s much the same pitcher as before. But Gray seems to be squeezing more out of his tools, inducing much less hard contact (33.9% after surrendering 39.5% last year, per Statcast) and generating a career-high 27.8% K rate despite continuing to sport similar swinging-strike marks.
MLBTR Poll: Should Mets Entertain Offers For Jacob deGrom?
In an interesting examination, Joel Sherman of the New York Post makes the case that the Mets ought to take offers on ace Jacob deGrom. He doesn’t exactly advocate a swap — the club ought to move him only “if the return is so overwhelming that they can’t say no,” in Sherman’s estimation — but does suggest it’s a realistic possibility worth pursuing.
That’d be quite an about-face given that deGrom only just inked an extension with the New York organization over the offseason. It really doesn’t kick in until after the present season. Nominally a four-year, $120.5MM pact, the value of the extension was reduced significantly by deferrals.
That is a lot of coin for a pitcher who recently reached his 31st birthday, though deGrom is not just any hurler. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, but that’s due mostly to regression in the home run department and a few shifts in sequencing fortune. Through 110 innings, he carries a 3.27 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. All the skills remain evident: deGrom has actually boosted his average fastball velocity to over 97 mph and is maintaining a swinging-strike rate in range of 15%.
There are some obvious barriers to a deal, as Sherman notes, beginning with Mets ownership. Even if the Wilpons are willing to authorize a franchise-altering swap, deGrom would have his say given his full no-trade rights.
That doesn’t mean it isn’t fascinating to consider the possibilities. At the moment, this year’s trade market is led by decidedly less-valuable hurlers such as Madison Bumgarner (who hasn’t lived up to his storied past of late), Marcus Stroman (often excellent but not consistently dominant), and deGrom’s teammate Zack Wheeler (ditto). deGrom is unquestionably one of the game’s very best pitchers; controlling him for four years at big but not eye-watering money would hold plenty of appeal.
There’s certainly some sense in the notion that the Mets ought to be willing to hit the re-set button. The offseason moves of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen have not hit the mark thus far; neither did those of his predecessor Sandy Alderson in the winter prior. Keeping deGrom while dealing only rental pieces would presumably mean a third-straight offseason re-tooling effort on the heels of a disappointing season.
On the other hand, the Mets would find themselves in a funny spot without deGrom. They still owe big money to players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Jeurys Familia. They’ll be paying another arb raise to Noah Syndergaard, unless he’s also made available. (That would arguably make quite a bit of sense, whether or not deGrom is shopped; perhaps the underperforming Thor deserves his own poll.)
The situation obviously does not admit of straightforward solutions. How do you think the Mets should handle it? (Poll link for app users.)
What Should the Mets Do With Jacob deGrom This Summer?
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Dangle him but only move him for a huge return. 53% (6,420)
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Don't even think about it! 24% (2,875)
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Trade him for the best offer they can get. 23% (2,822)
Total votes: 12,117
Rob Manfred On Minor-League Pay Negotiations
Yesterday, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred discussed the long-simmering issue of pay to minor-league players, as Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Manfred’s office recently launched negotiations with the minor-league governing body known as the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues.
MLB has fought tooth and nail to secure legal advantages against minor-league ballplayers, who remain without a union. While it battles to preserve its freedom of action, the league is also not unaware of the many problems posed by the current system, in which most minor-league players are dimly compensated for their labor. There’s always a risk of a reversal of legislative or court victories. And a concerted PR strategy from the players’ side could yet turn the tide.
While the ongoing talks with the NAPBL are voluntary, Manfred recognizes the practical need to address the matter. “The game’s about young players right now,” says the commissioner. Proper development of key player-assets requires a “positive environment,” which in turn means “you’ve got to have good facilities” and “you’ve got to pay correctly, and make sure you got the right people teaching.”
The imperative to “pay correctly” — an exceedingly interesting turn of phrase for the commish to introduce — is of chief interest to minor-league players. But there’s quite a bit more going on here. As Drellich well puts it, “Lurking in the background, and as a point of leverage, is the possibility that MLB seeks to cull some teams or otherwise reshape some aspects of the minors.” Hence the engagement with the NAPBL, which does not represent players but does have power over all other pertinent business matters that its big brother does not govern directly.
Manfred left little doubt that MLB owners aren’t just planning to open their pocketbooks. He cited a need “to look at the efficiency of the system” — for its own sake, perhaps, but also to “create[] some economic flexibility” that can be put to use in addressing the ballplayer salary issue. Beyond that, it seems mostly a question of whose profit margin will take the hit. As Manfred says, “Whether we pay or they pay, that’s a negotiation, right?”
Having won the early lobbying battle, organized baseball has earned itself time and space to structure a solution — albeit one that can still be subject to challenge. It’s still not clear what the league thinks it means to “pay correctly,” but the present approach seems unlikely to define that in the first instance by reference to concepts of fairness. Rather, what we are seeing now is an ownership effort (at both the major and minor-league levels) to arrive at an economically efficient solution that maximizes organizations’ investments in young players, staves off labor disruption, and assures the paying and voting public that all is well. Of course, the players will still have opportunities to influence the outcome, whether or not through the MLBPA or formal bargaining. It seems promising that MLB recognizes the need for change, even if the process isn’t ideal for labor. Whether the resulting system will be a fair one for pre-MLB ballplayers remains to be seen.
D-Backs CEO Derrick Hall On Deadline Plans
Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall discussed his organization’s upcoming trade-deadline plans — or, really, the lack thereof — in an interesting recent chat with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link). The whole thing is essential reading for the Arizona faithful, but we’ll examine a few key bits relating to the trade deadline.
Hall made clear, first and foremost, that the organization is entering the deadline period without a scripted approach. At the moment, it’s not clear what stance the Snakes will take. “[A] lot could be cleared up over the next few weeks,” he says, as the standings shift in the run-up to July 31st.
Just when and how that’ll be resolved remains to be seen. Intriguingly, Hall even seems to hint that he might rather see the current roster declare itself in one direction or the other more decisively. Per Hall: “We haven’t played great of late, and other teams have struggled as well, which has kept us in it, which is not necessarily a good thing for us.”
It’s not surprising to hear that the Arizona outfit will operate in a flexible manner. As Hall explains, that has been the modus operandi of GM Mike Hazen and his front office. “[O]ur guys, what they like to do is a little bit of both,” Hall said when asked what a sell-oriented deadline might look like, referring to the org’s twin pursuits of acquiring “pieces that can make an impact now” and “rebuilding that farm system.”
If there’s a broader takeaway from the chat, it probably lies in this line from Hall: “I don’t think Mike is in favor of a complete rebuild, and we’re in support of whatever direction he decides.” The organization clearly has placed quite a lot of trust in Hazen’s judgment. And it is obviously interested in maintaining consistent competitiveness while perhaps also achieving inflection points of real contention.
The D-Backs’ long-term vision carries echoes of successful, low-revenue clubs. After referring to the Paul Goldschmidt swap as “a deal that we really had to make,” Hall explained:
“That’s what [the front office is] always going to look to do, bring in young talent that can help the roster now. Even though you may be making moves that are moving some of your assets that we don’t have control over for a long time, you can still bring in individuals you will have that control over but who can impact the roster now.”
It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things play out this summer and beyond. Players such as Robbie Ray and David Peralta could deliver nice returns with one year of control remaining; veteran ace Zack Greinke might finally be dealt away to clear up the team’s books. It seems fair to assume that Hazen will have an open mind on those and other assets, but it’s tough to say at present which particular players will end up being discussed in earnest over the next three weeks.
Yasmani Grandal Reflects On Nearly Joining Mets
Catcher Yasmani Grandal signed with the Brewers in free agency last offseason on a far shorter and cheaper contract than he was expected to secure at the beginning of the winter. The Brewers landed the ex-Padre and Dodger for a one-year, $18.25MM guarantee, but only after Grandal rejected a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets.
Now set to play in his second All-Star Game, Grandal reflected on his Mets talks Tuesday, telling Ken Davidoff of the New York Post: “I did think [signing with the Mets] was going to happen. We had a really good conversation, Brodie [Van Wagenen] and I. We met. I think the meeting went great. Both sides were on the same page. We just couldn’t come to terms.”
Unable to lock up Grandal, the Mets pivoted to the second-ranked catcher on the market, Wilson Ramos, whom they reeled in for two years and $19MM. The Ramos signing, like most of the Mets’ other high-profile offseason moves, has blown up in their faces thus far. The 31-year-old has continued to log above-average offensive production for his position, but his defense has lagged behind. Ramos has ceded playing time to backup Tomas Nido of late because of his behind-the-plate decline, leading to talk (even from Ramos himself) that the Mets could trade their more expensive backstop either before the July 31 deadline or in the offseason.
With the Ramos signing failing to deliver, the Mets may find themselves back in the market for a starting catcher next winter. Grandal should be available again then, as it seems unlikely he’ll exercise his half of a $16MM mutual option in the wake of yet another strong season as an all-around catcher. Grandal came with a qualifying offer attached last winter, but that won’t be the case if he reaches free agency again in a few months. The fact that the soon-to-be 31-year-old Grandal won’t have draft compensation hanging over his head will only make him more appealing to catcher-needy teams, possibly including the Mets.
Regarding an agreement possibly coming together next winter with the Mets, Grandal said: “You never know, you have another offseason in which it could happen. Everything happens for a reason. I believe in that.”
Dodgers To Activate Corey Seager, A.J. Pollock On Friday
Already in possession of the majors’ best record, the 60-32 Dodgers will get a pair of familiar reinforcements back when the second half of the season begins. Shortstop Corey Seager and center fielder A.J. Pollock will return from the injured list Friday, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets.
Seager suffered a serious left hamstring strain June 12, guaranteeing him a second straight injury-marred season. The 25-year-old missed most of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May, but Seager impressed in his return this season prior to his IL stint. So far, the former NL Rookie of the Year has slashed .278/.359/.468 (119 wRC+) with eight home runs and 2.0 fWAR in 270 plate appearances.
Seager was truly heating up in the days before his injury, making his absence that much more unfortunate for him and the Dodgers. But the depth-laden team more than weathered Seager’s injury, as it’s known to do when key players go down. Seager’s primary replacement, Chris Taylor, helped keep the train rolling over the past few weeks.
Taylor has also seen some action at center fielder in place of Pollock, who hasn’t played since April 28 because of surgery on his troublesome right elbow. It was rookie Alex Verdugo who saw the lion’s share of time in center when Pollock was out, though. Verdugo, like many other Dodgers, has turned in praiseworthy production this season. Pollock has been one of the few exceptions, which isn’t what Los Angeles expected when it signed him to a $60MM guarantee in free agency. The oft-injured 31-year-old – perhaps owing in part to his elbow problems – hit a meek .223/.287/.330 (64 wRC+) with two HRs across 115 PA before going under the knife.
Despite his struggles earlier this year, Pollock’s track record indicates he’ll give the Dodgers no fewer than five starting-caliber outfielders upon his return. They already have Verdugo, NL MVP candidate Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson in leading roles, while the versatile Taylor can also handle himself in the grass.
J.D. Martinez Discusses Opt-Out Possibility
After a months-long standoff between the Red Sox and then-free agent J.D. Martinez prior to the 2018 season, the team finally landed the slugger on a five-year, $110MM guarantee in February. The contract has worked out brilliantly so far for the Red Sox, whom Martinez helped to a World Series title to cap off an incredibly productive 2018. While Martinez hasn’t been as excellent this season, the designated hitter/outfielder has still managed outstanding production for the sixth straight year.
Once the season concludes, Martinez will have a decision to make on whether to stick with his contract or opt out of it and test free agency again. Martinez will be 32 years old by then, and vacating the deal would mean passing on a guaranteed $62.5MM for a free-agency mystery box. However, Martinez doesn’t seem ready to rule out taking the gamble. Asked Monday if he’d consider opting out, Martinez told Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com it’s in agent Scott Boras’ hands.
“For me, I just listen to him,” Martinez said. “That’s what I pay him for. He gives me his opinion, he gives me his advice and it’s up to me after that to make my decision. We’re really not there yet, where he’s given me his opinion and his advice. So I think we have to see how it plays out.”
Back when Boras and Martinez were negotiating with Boston, medical concerns on the team’s behalf helped hold up an agreement. Martinez appeared in just 119 games in 2017 as a Tiger and Diamondback after a Lisfranc injury in his right foot kept him from debuting until mid-May. The issue led to wariness from the Red Sox, which left Martinez “very confused.” The club eventually got Martinez to accept making the last two years of his pact (2021-22) mutual options should he suffer a Lisfranc injury or other significant right foot complications. But Martinez has been durable as a Red Sox, and he expressed confidence to Cotillo that concerns about his foot rest with their doctor – not other doctors around the league.
If other teams aren’t worried about Martinez’s foot, it could influence whether he revisits the open market in a few months. That said, $60MM-plus would be a lot to leave on the table for a defensively limited 30-something who’d be saddled with a qualifying offer. Players who check one or two of those boxes, let alone three, haven’t fared great in free agency in recent years. It could be all the more concerning to clubs that Martinez’s offensive numbers, while still impressive, have dropped precipitously compared to 2017-18. In fairness to Martinez, though, he posted a 1.000-plus OPS in each of the previous two second halves. A similar tear this season could give the three-time All-Star and Boras something to think about once Boston’s season ends.