Tigers, Nicholas Castellanos Expected Extension In Spring
It doesn’t appear Tigers right fielder Nicholas Castellanos is going to get a contract extension before the July 31 trade deadline, which means the impending free agent is likely to find himself in another uniform by Aug. 1. Castellanos said in March, a few weeks before the season started, that he and the Tigers hadn’t engaged in extension talks. That may have been true at the time, but it turns out the two sides regarded a new contract as “likely” for a short period in the spring, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports.
The length and value of the extension the Tigers and Castellanos thought they’d strike are unknown, but it was the team that “pulled back,” per McCosky. Castellanos hired the Boras Corporation to represent him April 19, and it doesn’t seem as if the Tigers and the agency have had any meaningful talks since then.
Considering Detroit made a spirited effort to trade Castellanos in the offseason, it’s not surprising the rebuilding club was reluctant to pull the trigger on an extension in the spring. Castellanos’ previous agent even publicly stated in January that his client would prefer a trade, though general manager Al Avila couldn’t net an offer to his liking. Avila admitted then that trying to find a taker for Castellanos had been “frustrating.”
Seven months later, the frustration has likely persisted for Avila in regards to Castellanos. The 27-year-old’s offense has gotten rolling of late after a slow start to the season, but he hasn’t done much to boost his trade stock. Castellanos is a good hitter who doesn’t offer much in the field, which has been the case since he broke out at the plate in 2016. Through 366 plate appearances this season, Castellanos has slashed .282/.342/.468 (113 wRC+) with nine home runs. Notably, there’s almost almost no gap between his weighted on-base average (.344) and expected wOBA (.346).
Diligent work to improve as an outfielder actually has paid off to a degree for Castellanos, though he has still only managed minus-5 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-5 Outs Above Average and a minus-4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in the grass in 2019. The former third baseman’s best fit, at least if a playoff-contending team acquires him for the stretch run, may be as a designated hitter. The trouble is that Castellanos’ output this year hasn’t been much better than that of an average DH (110 wRC+).
Given his flaws, Castellanos is unlikely to fetch much for the Tigers prior to the deadline. Assuming a trade does come together, though, Castellanos will be on track to reach free agency after the season with zero chance of a qualifying offer hurting his earning power. Once he hits the open market, Castellanos will try to build on the $9.95MM he’s making this season.
Lone Star Notes: Correa, Diaz, Bregman, Pence, Smith
Major League Baseball’s two Texas-based teams officially got the second half of the season underway Thursday. Led by another terrific performance from right-hander Lance Lynn, who struck out 11 in seven shutout innings, the Rangers coasted to a 5-0 victory over the Astros. Both teams’ rosters were missing some key components because of injuries. Here’s the latest on a handful of those players…
- Astros shortstop Carlos Correa and infielder Aledmys Diaz could start rehab assignments next week, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. A fractured rib sent Correa to the injured list May 27, halting a great start to the season for the 24-year-old star. Diaz (left hamstring strain) went to the IL the same day as Correa. Their absences have had significant consequences for a few of the Astros’ other infielders. With neither Correa nor Diaz around to man short, the Astros have often turned to franchise third baseman Alex Bregman, leaving the hot corner for first baseman Yuli Gurriel and first for Tyler White.
- Speaking of Bregman, he departed in the third inning Thursday after a hard grounder off the bat of Shin-Soo Choo took an unkind hop and struck Bregman in the chin. Bregman left the field bloodied and received four stitches, manager A.J. Hinch said (via McTaggart). It’s unclear whether Bregman will sit out any time going forward. The club replaced him at short with Myles Straw.
- Rangers designated hitter/outfielder Hunter Pence restarted a rehab assignment at the Double-A level Thursday, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports. Pence played DH and will likely do the same Friday. After that, the Rangers hope to activate him over the weekend, per manager Chris Woodward. The 36-year-old Pence’s renaissance season came to a pause when he hit the IL on June 17 with a Grade 2 right groin strain. Pence then suffered a setback in his first rehab game July 1, causing the team to briefly shut him down.
- More from McTaggart, who writes that reliever Joe Smith could rejoin the Astros’ bullpen as early as Sunday if he doesn’t incur any setbacks in the meantime. The 35-year-old right-hander has spent the past several months working back from the ruptured left Achilles tendon he suffered in a December workout. Smith, who’s in the last season of a two-year, $15MM contract, logged a 3.74 ERA with 9.07 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9 across 45 2/3 innings in 2018.
Report: Cardinals “Poised” To Renew Will Smith Pursuit
Giants closer Will Smith looks like one of the majors’ most obvious trade chips as the July 31 deadline nears. The left-handed All-Star has already drawn interest from multiple teams, and St. Louis is among those that will join the fray for Smith, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As long as they remain in playoff contention, the Cardinals “are poised to pursue” Smith this month, Morosi writes.
Targeting Smith isn’t anything new for the Cardinals, who made an effort to acquire him early last winter. They and the Giants couldn’t come to an agreement, though, nor did San Francisco find an offer to its liking elsewhere. With a Smith pickup out of the question, the Cardinals addressed the left side of their bullpen by signing free agent Andrew Miller to a two-year, $25MM contract. Miller’s 3.81 ERA and 4.72 FIP in 28 1/3 innings since then are much closer to serviceable than great, but he has recorded 13.66 K/9 against 3.81 BB/9, thus helping him bounce back from a rough April.
The 30-year-old Smith has struck out upward of 13 hitters per nine as well, but he has walked about half as many as Miller (1.98) over 36 1/3 frames. Smith has also pitched to a stupendous 1.98 ERA/2.02 FIP and stymied left- and right-handed hitters alike, having limited the former to a .200 weighted on-base average and the latter to a .218 wOBA. Adding to his appeal, Smith has converted all 23 of his save opportunities, and he has done it on an affordable $4.225MM salary. So, even though Smith’s not under control past this season, the Giants shouldn’t have much trouble netting a solid return for the sought-after late-game ace.
In the Cardinals’ case, reeling in Smith would help them replace heat-dealing closer Jordan Hicks, who underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery two weeks ago. Former starter Carlos Martinez has emerged as Hicks’ successor since then, but picking up Smith would potentially enable the Cardinals to deploy the lethal Martinez in a multi-inning setup role. Regardless, Smith, Miller, Martinez, John Gant, Giovanny Gallegos and John Brebbia would make for a fierce game-ending setup – one that could help pitch the Cardinals to the playoffs.
The Redbirds aren’t in playoff position at the moment, having trudged through a letdown of a first half in which they went 44-44. However, they’re still just two games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs and a pair back of a wild-card spot. With a realistic shot at qualifying for the postseason, the Cardinals look as if they’re lining up as buyers.
3 Twins Prospects Could Be “Off Limits” In Trade Talks
With July 31 approaching, the AL Central-leading Twins have reportedly shown interest in an array of pitchers who are potential trade candidates. The club has been connected to Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles and Kirby Yates in the rumor mill over the past few weeks. However, if the Twins are going to make win-now moves this month, it doesn’t appear they’ll come at the expense of any of their absolute best prospects. Shortstop Royce Lewis, outfielder Alex Kirilloff and right-hander Brusdar Graterol are “off limits” in trade talks, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune.
It’s especially unsurprising the Twins don’t seem to want to give up the 20-year-old Lewis, whom they drafted first overall in 2017 and then signed to a record bonus for a high schooler. Two years later, FanGraphs (No. 2), MLB.com (No. 7) and Baseball America (No. 10) all regard Lewis as a top 10 major league prospect. ESPN’s Keith Law, who just released his latest top 50 (worth checking out in full), is somewhat less bullish on Lewis. In ranking Lewis 34th, Law explains that “massive” mechanical changes the player has made at the plate haven’t benefited him. Lewis, for what it’s worth, has only hit .239/.288/.373 (95 wRC+) in 358 plate appearances at the High-A level this season. Beyond that, Law’s skeptical of Lewis’ ability to stick at short, writing he’s likely a better fit to play center field.
In Law’s estimation, Kirilloff (No. 15) is a superior prospect to Lewis. The other prospect gurus are similarly high on Kirilloff – BA ranks him 11th, MLB.com 13th and FanGraphs 26th. The 15th overall pick of the Twins in 2016, Kirilloff has made a 216-PA debut with Double-A Pensacola this season and slashed .283/.366/.429 with four home runs. That doesn’t look like a world-beating line, but by wRC+, the 21-year-old Kirilloff’s production has been 33 percent better than the Southern League average. Furthermore, even though Kirilloff hasn’t been particularly powerful this year, there aren’t many concerns over him developing into a solid power hitter in the majors, according to Law.
Graterol, meanwhile, didn’t crack Law’s rankings, though he’s in the top 50s of Baseball America (No. 36) and MLB.com (No. 50). FanGraphs places him just a few spots outside (53rd). BA credits Graterol, 20, with possessing “wipeout stuff,” adding there’s room for him to improve his command. Like Kirilloff, Graterol’s in the midst of his first Double-A action. He owns a superb 1.89 ERA/3.28 FIP with 8.69 K/9, 3.59 BB/9 and a 52.1 percent groundball rate in nine starts and 47 2/3 innings thus far.
Although the Twins don’t look willing to move any of Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol, that shouldn’t necessarily preclude them from adding impact MLB talent before the deadline. The club does boast FanGraphs’ seventh-ranked farm system, two more top 100 prospects at MLB.com (93rd-rated outfielder Trevor Larnach and 99th-ranked righty Jordan Balazovic), and likely plenty more farmhands who’d pique the interest of other teams in negotiations.
Mitch Moreland Starts Rehab Assignment
Injured Red Sox first baseman Mitch Moreland started a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level on Thursday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. Moreland, who has been out for several weeks, may be in for a somewhat “lengthy” stint in the minors as he works his way back to the bigs, per Cotillo.
Moreland got off to a fine start this season, slashing .225/.316/.543 (116 wRC+) with 13 home runs and an eye-opening .318 ISO in 174 plate appearances, but multiple ailments have derailed his year since late May. The 33-year-old landed on the 10-day IL with a lower back strain May 29, and though he made a quick return, Moreland went back to the shelf June 8 after suffering a right quad strain.
The lefty-hitting Moreland and righty Steve Pearce opened the season in a timeshare at first base for the Red Sox. Pearce has been down since June 1, though, and knee troubles will prevent him from returning in the near future. The long-term absences of Moreland and Pearce have left first almost exclusively to Michael Chavis, who has enjoyed a respectable rookie year. Chavis had been Boston’s primary second baseman before the injuries to its first basemen. Brock Holt and Marco Hernandez have offered good production there in Chavis’ stead, so it’s unclear how the club will divvy up playing time between first and the keystone once Moreland returns.
Moreland’s comeback figures to have negative consequences for either the optionable Hernandez or veteran infielder Eduardo Nunez, who Cotillo suggests could become a DFA candidate at that point. Although the Red Sox would owe Nunez the balance of his $4MM salary in getting rid of him, he hasn’t justified a roster spot this season. A .233/.249/.313 line (40 wRC+) in 170 PA has relegated Nunez to a bench role.
Dodgers, Braves, Rays Interested In Matthew Boyd
The Padres, Cubs, Red Sox and Astros are reportedly among teams with interest in breakout Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd as the July 31 trade deadline creeps closer. Add the Dodgers, Braves and Rays to the clubs involved in the derby, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
The 28-year-old Boyd has evolved from average starter to potential front-end arm since the season began, and with the Tigers in a rebuild, they may decide to cash him in this month. Boyd’s 3.87 ERA over 107 innings isn’t befitting of an ace, but he has managed a more impressive 3.56 FIP/3.34 xFIP while emerging as one of the majors’ preeminent strikeout artists. With a sky-high 11.94 K/9 against a measly 1.68 BB/9, Boyd ranks top 10 among starters in those categories and top five in K/BB ratio (1.68).
Home runs have recently haunted Boyd, who has allowed at least two in three straight outings and a total of 10 in six starts since the beginning of June. But Boyd’s sudden gopher balls issues don’t look as if they’ll be enough to dampen teams’ enthusiasm in the affordable, controllable hurler. His $2.6MM salary this season and three remaining years of arbitration eligibility would make him a long-term piece for an acquiring team, though they’ll also help drive up Detroit’s asking price. The Tigers are holding out for a lofty return for Boyd, as you’d expect, with McCosky reporting they initially sought a major league-ready hitter and one or more “top” prospects at or above the Double-A level.
For the Dodgers, Boyd would add to a team that already seems to have everything. The back-to-back National League pennant winners own the majors’ best record (60-32) thanks in part to their starting staff. Potential Cy Young candidate Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler have all been good to brilliant, while Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling have performed well in complementary roles. The same applies to Rich Hill, though he has been on the injured list since June 20 with a left flexor tendon strain and, having gone on the 60-day IL, won’t return until at least late August. It’s also worth noting this could be the last season in Los Angeles for Hill, a soon-to-be free agent who’s pushing 40, so Boyd would fit nicely in his spot in the team’s rotation in 2020.
The Braves are the NL’s second-ranked team at 54-37, and there’s an obvious connection between their front office and Boyd. General manager Alex Anthopoulos held the same position in Toronto when the Blue Jays spent a sixth-round pick on Boyd in 2013. Boyd debuted up north in 2015, Anthopoulos’ last year as Toronto’s GM, but the championship-contending club traded him that July to the Tigers to acquire ace David Price.
Anthopoulos fell short of his World Series goal four years ago, but his current employer has a realistic chance to vie for a title this season. The Braves, though, do have needs in their rotation even after signing Dallas Keuchel to a one-year, $13MM contract in June. Keuchel and rookie sensation Mike Soroka are locked into spots. After that, while Julio Teheran has logged a 3.75 ERA in 100 2/3 innings, it’s much harder to trust his shaky peripherals. Max Fried‘s secondary numbers are better than Teheran’s, but he has been inconsistent of late. Meanwhile, 2018 No. 1 starter Mike Foltynewicz got off to a miserable start before the team demoted him to the minors June 23, and hasn’t come back since. Kevin Gausman, likewise, hasn’t taken the mound for the Braves in weeks – he went to the IL on June 11 with a plantar fasciitis in his right foot – and has joined Foltynewicz in struggling mightily when he has started this year.
Tampa Bay isn’t the mortal playoff lock LA and Atlanta appear to be in the NL, but the Rays are very much in the AL hunt. The club’s 52-39, a half-game up on its league’s No. 1 wild-card spot and 6 1/2 behind the AL East-leading Yankees. Boyd, who’s easily affordable for the low-budget Rays, would join Cy Young possibility Charlie Morton, reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos to give the opener-using team four traditional starters. The team’s also continuing to await the return of Tyler Glasnow, who was enjoying what looked like a breakthrough campaign before forearm troubles forced him to the shelf May 10. Glasnow still believes he’ll factor in again this season even after having suffered setbacks, but the Rays may not be able to bank on that occurring.
Rockies Sign Yonder Alonso
The Rockies have signed first baseman Yonder Alonso to a minor league contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Alonso unofficially announced the move himself earlier today on his Instagram page, and debuted tonight for the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate.
Alonso was released by the White Sox last week, bringing to end a short and disappointing tenure for the 32-year-old in the Windy City. Alonso was acquired in a trade from the Indians last December, with Chicago somewhat surprisingly agreeing to take on all of the $8MM owed to the first baseman in 2019, plus the $9MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2020. At the time, much of the speculation focused on Alonso as a possible harbinger of a Manny Machado (Alonso’s brother-in-law) signing for the Sox, though Machado’s eventual decision to join the Padres got Alonso’s time with the Pale Hose off to something of an awkward start.
After a big 2017 season, Alonso was a slightly below-average offensive producer in 2018 (97 wRC+, 97 OPS+) and his bat went ice-cold in a White Sox uniform. The veteran hit just .178/.275/.301 with seven homers over 251 plate appearances, putting him on pace for what would be easily the worst full-season performance of his ten years in the majors. While his expected outcomes (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) significantly outpaced his real-world numbers, his expected slash line of .235/.376/.311 was also far from impressive.
That 2017 performance was generated largely by Alonso retooling his swing to become an extreme fly-ball hitter, and though his ability to keep the ball in the air has diminished over the last two years, the Rockies are undoubtedly intrigued by what a revived Alonso could potentially do in the thin air at Coors Field. Since the White Sox are covering Alonso’s salary (minus the prorated MLB minimum if Alonso makes the big league roster), there’s no risk for Colorado in seeing if a change of scenery will get Alonso on track.
The Rockies already have another left-handed hitter in Daniel Murphy holding down the first base, so without a DH spot in the National League, Alonso would likely be limited to bench duty if he did crack the 25-man roster. It’s worth noting that the Rox had some mild interest in Edwin Encarnacion prior to the slugger’s trade to the Yankees last month, so Colorado gave at least some vague thought to shifting Murphy back to second base. Such move might have only been seriously considered to accommodate a player in the midst of a strong season like Encarnacion, however, rather than a struggling veteran like Alonso.
The Constant Gardner
Raise your hand if you thought Brett Gardner would lead Yankees outfielders in fWAR at the All-Star break. Weeks-long, injury-forced absences to starting outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks helped Gardner ascend to the top of the heap in the season’s first three-plus months, but the long-productive 35-year-old has been legitimately good yet again. With 2.1 fWAR through 323 plate appearances, Gardner is tied for 46th among all qualified position players, having notched the same total as Juan Soto, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson and others. He’s also continuing to make a case as one of the most valuable Yankees ever in the eyes of that metric, which places him 24th among the storied franchise’s all-time position players.
Even though Gardner is enjoying his latest quality season, there is a chance it’ll be the last in pinstripes for the soon-to-be free agent and career-long Yankee. The club brought Gardner back last offseason for $7.5MM after declining its $12.5MM option over him. At that point, Gardner didn’t look as if he’d be in line for his typical amount of playing time. The team had Judge, Stanton and Hicks, after all, and while they (especially Stanton) have each sat out significant time this year, all three will reprise starting roles next season. The club could also have Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Andujar (yet another 2019 injury case), Clint Frazier (if he’s still with the organization by then) and an out-of-options Mike Tauchman further clouding the outfield and/or DH mix.
Of course, if you’re Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, there are more important matters at hand than worrying about 2020. He can map out Gardner’s future then. As of now, Cashman’s choice to retain Gardner last winter has proven to be a shrewd decision for a team that has jumped out to the American League’s leading record (57-31).
A roughly league-average offensive player since his career started in 2008, Gardner has posted a 109 wRC+ so far this year. If the season ended now, it would go down as the fourth-best figure of his career. Gardner’s more conventional output – his triple-slash line – checks in at .246/.328/.470. While Gardner has usually derived a sizable portion of his offensive value from his ability to get on base, having done so at a .343 lifetime clip, he’s one of countless major leaguers whose uptick in power has ruled the day in 2019.
Gardner has already piled up 15 home runs, six fewer than the high-water mark of 21 he hit in 2017, with a .225 ISO that comes in 90 points above his career mean. Unlike many other hitters, though, Gardner hasn’t needed to sell out for power by upping his strikeouts. In fact, Gardner has gone down on strikes a meager 15.5 percent of the time – his lowest since 2009 – and is tied with Mike Trout for the game’s eighth-ranked swing-and-miss rate (5.3 percent). Plus, having walked in better than 10 percent of trips to the plate, Gardner’s 0.66 BB/K ratio almost doubles the league average (0.37).
Gardner’s sturdy output this year has come in spite of a .248 batting average on balls in play, down 59 points compared to his .307 lifetime BABIP. Still one of the majors’ fastest runners, Gardner looks like a good bet on paper to see his BABIP skyrocket. That’s not a lock, though, if Gardner’s new approach holds up. He’s hitting more fly balls and fewer ground balls/line drives than usual. That’s not conducive to a high BABIP, and it’s worth noting that hitting the ball out of the park doesn’t count toward the stat.
The question is whether Gardner’s newfound power is here to stay. The fact that he’s pulling the ball at a career-high rate and going opposite field at a personal-low percentage bodes well in that regard. Furthermore, FanGraphs indicates Gardner’s hard-hit rate is his highest since 2012. It also may help that the left-handed Gardner plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, but the venue surprisingly has been a difficult one for lefties to amass HRs at this season, according to Baseball Prospectus. For his part, Gardner has been better on the road (114 wRC+) than at home (102) this year, though he has totaled eight of his homers in the Bronx. Historically, Gardner has offered league-average or better numbers both home and away.
Sticking with Gardner’s history, he has typically been usable, albeit unspectacular, versus same-handed pitchers (88 wRC+). But they’ve stifled Gardner this season, having limited him to a woeful .206/.260/.324 (53 wRC+) in 73 PA. Moreover, Gardner has been far from great in general in the estimation of Statcast, which puts his expected weighted on-base average (.314) significantly below his real wOBA (.339). It also indicates his expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected batting average are all worse than mediocre.
Elsewhere, however, Gardner remains a defensive and base running stalwart in spite of his advanced age. In almost 700 innings divided between left and center, he has accounted for 4 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. And while Gardner’s no longer the 40-steal threat he once was, the speedster has swiped eight of 10 bags this year and rated as one of FanGraphs’ top base runners.
The overall package has almost always been effective for Gardner, who has quietly been one of the Yankees’ greatest draft picks in recent memory after going in the third round in 2005. Fourteen years later, Gardner remains a legitimate major league regular and someone who could help the franchise to the second World Series title of his career this fall. Whether Gardner will stay with the lone organization he has ever known once its season ends will be one of the Yankees’ main questions when the offseason rolls around.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/11/19
The latest minor moves from around the game…
Most Recent
- The Orioles‘ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk announced several roster moves today, including the news that right-hander Matt Wotherspoon was outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. Wotherspoon was designated for assignment last week, and this marks the second time this season that the O’s outrighted him off their 40-man roster. Now in his sixth pro season, Wotherspoon made his Major League debut earlier this year, getting hit hard for eight earned runs over 4 2/3 innings for Baltimore.
Earlier Today
- Brewers right-hander Deolis Guerra cleared waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A San Antonio, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). The 30-year-old Guerra made just one appearance with the Brewers after having his contract selected, wherein he was hammered for four runs in two-thirds of an inning. Ugly as that outing was, Guerra has been excellent in an extraordinarily hitter-friendly Triple-A environment in 2019: 2.61 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 in 41 1/3 innings of relief. It seems the well-traveled Guerra will remain in the organization as a depth piece; he had the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but there’s no indication he plans to do so.
- Lost in the All-Star shuffle on Tuesday was the Indians‘ announcement that righty Chih-Wei Hu cleared waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A Columbus. Hu, 25, was originally signed by the Twins as an amateur free agent out of Taiwan but was traded to the Rays in 2015 (for Kevin Jepsen) and then to the Indians this past offseason (for minor leaguer Gionti Turner). Hu pitched 23 innings of 3.52 ERA ball with a 21-to-7 K/BB ratio for Tampa Bay in 2017-18, but he’s been rocked for a 7.95 ERA while allowing 2.96 HR/9 in 48 2/3 innings in Triple-A this year. Hu had a 4.06 ERA and solid K/BB numbers in parts of four prior seasons of Triple-A ball prior to 2019, and he’ll strive to get back to that level of performance while no longer occupying a 40-man roster spot.
Mets Likely Won’t Trade Syndergaard, Matz Unless “Overwhelmed” By Offer
While it is becoming increasingly likely that the Mets will be sellers at the deadline, the team won’t be going into a full fire sale. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are two of the names that aren’t likely to be going anywhere before the July 31st deadline, as Mike Puma of the New York Post hears from an industry source that the Mets “would likely have to be overwhelmed by a trade proposal” to deal Syndergaard or Matz.
The Mets’ reluctance to move Syndergaard is well-known, despite the fact that at least three teams (the Brewers, Astros and Padres) have shown interest already, and several more would surely join the bidding if the man they call Thor was actually shopped. We haven’t heard much about Matz as a trade candidate this summer, and it’s interesting that he is seemingly in the same boat as the more heralded Syndergaard, though New York would have largely the same reasons to want to keep either pitcher.
Matz has a 4.89 ERA, 2.69 K/BB rate, 46.9% grounder rate, and 8.7 K/9 over 81 innings this season. Despite some pretty decent overall advanced metrics, Matz has been once again undone by problems with the home run ball. After posting a 1.5 HR/9 in 2017-18, that number jumped even higher to a full 2.0 HR/9 in 2019, as 20.9% of all fly balls allowed by Matz have left the yard. Matz’s struggles peaked in June, as a string of poor outings led the Mets to remove him from the rotation, though he is slated to start on July 17 against the Twins.
Now in his fourth season as a regular, Matz has shown some flashes of brilliance for the Mets but injuries and his propensity for the home run ball have limited his value. After generating 2.4 fWAR in his 2016 rookie season, he has been little more than a replacement-level pitcher since, with 1.3 total fWAR over his next 301 2/3 innings. Matz hasn’t approached the type of ace-level ability Syndergaard has shown at his peak, though like Syndergaard, the Mets would arguably be selling low on Matz if they dealt him now.
Matz is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, earning $2.625MM for the season and thus in line for cost-effective salaries in both 2020 and 2021 even if Matz has a breakout next year. Syndergaard also has two-plus years of team control remaining, though at a higher price (he is earning $6MM in 2019). Between the control and the lack of payroll strain caused by either hurler, the Mets don’t have any particular reason to make a trade, especially since neither is pitching particularly well.