Jake Arrieta To Pitch Through Injury – For Now
Phillies right-hander Jake Arrieta may be facing season-ending surgery on a bone spur in his elbow, but he’ll continue to pitch while the team evaluates his health. The plan is for Arrieta to take the ball sometime during Philadelphia’s series against the Nationals this weekend, Phillies manager Gabe Kapler told SportsRadio 94WIP on Wednesday (via ESPN.com).
While Kapler admitted the injury has hampered Arrieta, he added that “it’s always worth considering if Jake at 85 percent of himself is a better option than what we have at Triple-A.”
Three members of the Phillies’ 40-man roster – Enyel De Los Santos, Cole Irvin and Drew Anderson – are on Triple-A Lehigh Valley’s pitching staff. Santos, Irvin and Anderson have all spent some time in the majors this year, but they’ve each struggled over limited sample sizes. While De Los Santos and Irvin have put up mid-3.00s ERAs in the minors this year, their effective run prevention has come with less enticing peripherals. Anderson, meanwhile, owns a near-6.00 ERA with Lehigh Valley in 2019. The 22-year-old JoJo Romero is Philly’s seventh-ranked prospect at MLB.com (one spot behind De Los Santos, nine ahead of Irvin), but he isn’t on the 40-man and hasn’t earned a promotion anyway. Romero sports an ERA a tad south of 10.00 in seven Triple-A starts.
Not only do the Phillies lack starting options they’re fully comfortable with below the majors, but their big league rotation hasn’t lit it up. The team’s starters rank 19th in the majors in K/BB ratio, 24th in ERA and 25th in FIP, owing in part to Arrieta’s disappointing performance. Now in the second season of a three-year, $75MM contract, the 33-year-old has pitched to a 4.67 ERA/5.07 FIP with 7.08 K/9 and 3.33 BB/9 in 108 innings. Arrieta’s contract gives him the right to opt out after the season, while the Phillies could void his opt-out and opt into two more years and $40MM. Neither one of those things will happen, though, so the Phillies will end up owing him another $20MM in 2020.
Despite the Phillies’ pricey commitment to Arrieta, they’ll run the risk of having him continue to pitch through injury for the time being. Regardless of whether he holds up, the Phillies seem like shoo-ins to fortify their rotation from outside before the July 31 trade deadline. In the meantime, the club will start the second half of the season Friday at 47-43 and a half-game up on the NL’s second wild-card spot.
Mets Have Discussed Noah Syndergaard With At Least 6 Teams
10:37pm: The Mets have recently discussed Syndergaard with no fewer than six teams, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s “minimal urgency” on the Mets’ part to trade Syndergaard, whom they’d need to be “wowed” to move, Healey writes.
12:19pm: The Padres have checked in recently on the availability of Mets starter Noah Syndergaard, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). The big righty was a known target of the San Diego organization over the winter, though the sides obviously failed to line up at the time.
It’s not at all clear that the two organizations have engaged in substantive trade dialogue to this point. And there are other teams also showing attention to the 26-year-old Syndergaard. It’s still far from certain at this point that the Mets will move him, let alone where.
There are some tough calls ahead for the scuffling New York org. Sitting at ten games under .500, there’s not much hope of digging out of the hole this season. But the club’s balance sheet is set up to continue the pursuit of contention in 2020. Syndergaard would have obvious value to the team then, as he’s controllable for two more seasons via arbitration.
Selling Thor likely won’t make sense for the Mets if it means settling for a return that reflects his 2019 output. Syndergaard carries only a 4.68 ERA through 105 2/3 innings. There certainly seems to be some sequencing and batted-ball misfortune mixed in — he has a slightly depressed 67.0% strand rate; Statcast credits him with a .280 xwOBA-against that’s far better than his .314 wOBA-against — but he’s also carrying career-low levels of swinging strikes (11.9%) and chases out of the zone (31.5%).
Given the levels of early interest being shown, it’s obvious that other organizations still see plenty of skill in Syndergaard’s powerful right arm. He’s still averaging over 98 mph with his fastball. His release point has wandered this year, which could reflect a concern, an attempt at an adjustment, or an area to target for correction.
The key question may ultimately be whether a team is willing to put enough talent on the line to force the Mets’ hand on the matter. For the Friars, adding Syndergaard now would significantly enhance the immediate outlook, though with a yawning gulf in the division that’d be a dubious strategy. Such a move would mostly be about his potential to anchor the rotation next season, with an extension perhaps also a possibility. The San Diego organization is laden with young talent, so there’s no shortage of conceivable pieces that could be included in a deal.
Dodgers Sign Second-Rounder Jimmy Lewis
The Dodgers have signed supplemental second-rounder Jimmy Lewis to an above-slot deal, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com. Lewis, the 78th selection, will earn $1.1MM. The right-hander’s pick called for a $793K value.
The draft-related heavy lifting is now complete for the Dodgers, who have reached agreements with all of their top picks. They chose three times in the first 100, landing Lewis, third baseman Kody Hoese (No. 25) and second baseman Michael Busch (31st). The club received the pick it used on Lewis as compensation for losing qualifying offer recipient Yasmani Grandal in free agency over the winter.
While the Dodgers mostly chose college players this year, they switched gears in tabbing Lewis – a high schooler from Texas. The 6-foot-6, 200-pounder had committed to LSU, but he’ll turn pro instead. Entering the draft, ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 31), Baseball America (56), and MLB.com (64) all ranked Lewis higher than where he ultimately came off the board. Lewis’ offerings include a 95 mph fastball, a potentially “plus” curveball and a changeup, per Callis and Jonathan Mayo.
Brad Peacock Begins Rehab Assignment; Nearing Return
Injured Astros right-hander Brad Peacock began a rehab assignment at the Double-A level on Wednesday, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports. Barring setbacks, Peacock could slot back into the Astros’ rotation by July 15, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription link).
Peacock went down June 28 with with shoulder inflammation, which always sounds ominous for a pitcher. The fact that he’s on track to return within a three-week span is a victory for the Astros, who’ve seen Peacock offer fine production in a full-time starting role this season. After making 60 of his 61 appearances out of the Astros’ bullpen in 2018, Peacock has totaled 15 starts in 17 outings this year, pitching to a 4.13 ERA/4.15 FIP with 9.42 K/9 against 2.65 BB/9 in 85 frames.
The 31-year-old Peacock’s emergence as a credible complement to Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley has been an important development for Houston this season. After all, the club has had extreme difficulty finding another dependable starter to fill out its rotation. Collin McHugh joined Peacock in moving back to the Astros’ starting staff to begin the season, but the typically solid McHugh floundered there and has since returned to their bullpen. Top 100 prospect Corbin Martin, who initially replaced McHugh, struggled in his first taste of major league action before undergoing Tommy John surgery last week. Framber Valdez and Jose Urquidy, the other starters the Astros have tried, have also failed to lay claim to a spot.
Although no one has stepped up to give the Astros a fifth capable starter, they still possess the American League’s second-best record (57-33) and a 7 1/2-game advantage in their division. Even with Peacock on the way back, however, the Astros figure to add another established starter before the July 31 trade deadline. In fact, indications are the club’s going big-game hunting for another front-of-the-rotation arm to join Verlander and Cole. Noah Syndergaard (link), Trevor Bauer (link), Madison Bumgarner (link), Matthew Boyd (link) and Marcus Stroman (link) have all reportedly landed on the Astros’ radar.
Is It Time For The Mets To Trade Noah Syndergaard?
Judging solely by Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard‘s decline in performance this year, this summer doesn’t look like the time to trade the 26-year-old. But going by Syndergaard’s pre-2019 numbers and the amount of club control he has remaining, Thor would warrant a haul leading up to the trade deadline. For almost the entire season thus far, there haven’t been rumblings on MLBTR’s pages about a possible Syndergaard swap. The rumor mill has begun picking up since Tuesday, however.
With the deadline exactly three weeks away, the Brewers, Astros and Padres are among those who have demonstrated interest in Syndergaard. It’s probably fair to say even more teams will eye Syndergaard, if they haven’t already, though the Mets don’t seem as if they’re shopping him aggressively.
Little has gone right this year for New York, which has stumbled to a record (40-50) that betters only the Marlins’ mark in the National League. Contention’s highly unlikely for this year’s Mets, but unlike with impending free-agent starter Zack Wheeler, they shouldn’t necessarily feel urgency to part with Syndergaard this summer.
Syndergaard, who’s making an appealing $6MM salary, is eligible for arbitration two more times after 2019. Therefore, the Mets could keep him in hopes they and he bounce back during that two-year span. Alternatively, the club could retain Syndergaard through this season, see if he returns to his typical form in the second half and then solicit offers during the winter. At that point, teams unable to win what should be a hotly contested derby for free agency’s top starter, Gerrit Cole, might view Syndergaard as an enticing consolation prize.
On a per-inning basis, Syndergaard has been a Cole-caliber producer since he broke into the league. Between his 2015 debut and last year, Syndergaard parlayed his high-90s heat into an ace-like 2.93 ERA/2.66 FIP with 9.95 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate over 518 innings. But injuries limited him at times, including during a 154 1/3-inning campaign in 2018, and they’ve reared their head again this year. Syndergaard missed time earlier in the season with a hamstring strain, though he returned after missing about two weeks. He has not, however, logged a quality start in any of his three outings since. Overall, Syndergaard has paled in comparison to his 2015-18 self, having notched a 4.68 ERA/3.98 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9, and a 46.7 percent grounder mark across 105 2/3 frames.
While Syndergaard’s continuing to throw hard, his aforementioned K/9, career-low chase rate, career-high contact rate and personal-worst swinging-strike percentage show he’s fooling fewer hitters than ever. On the other hand, Syndergaard’s still a Statcast darling whose 34-point spread between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.314/.280) suggest bad luck has played a part in his issues preventing runs. The fact that Syndergaard’s tasked with pitching in front of a dreadful defense also hasn’t done him any favors.
All things considered, the Mets are facing an interesting decision on Syndergaard as zero hour closes in on July 31. If the Mets were to make Syndergaard available by then, he’d perhaps end up as the most popular player on the block. What should they do?
(Poll link for app users)
What should the Mets do with Noah Syndergaard?
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Listen to offers and consider moving him for a huge return 59% (3,787)
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Definitely trade him 27% (1,717)
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Now isn't the time to deal him 15% (951)
Total votes: 6,455
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Most Improved Offense Of 2019
After unexpectedly earning a playoff berth in 2017, the Twins finished far out of contention last season with a 78-84 record. The club’s offense contributed to its mediocrity a year ago, ranking 13th in the majors in runs, 19th in wRC+ (95) and 23rd in homers. Aside from infielder Eduardo Escobar, whom Minnesota traded to Arizona before the end-of-July deadline, none of its regulars posted well above-average offensive production. Additionally, the Twins handed out a couple thousand plate appearances to players who were so-so or worse at the plate. Franchise icon Joe Mauer, who retired at season’s end, as well as Brian Dozier (traded last summer) and offseason departures Robbie Grossman, Logan Morrison and Logan Forsythe were among those responsible for Minnesota’s middle-of-the-pack attack.
Unlike last season, there hasn’t been anything run-of-the-mill about the Twins’ offense. In fact, the unit has been downright scary, a key reason why the Twins have sprinted to the majors’ fourth-ranked record (56-33). No team has scored more runs than the Twins, who are tied atop the league at 509 and have seen their wRC+ climb a whopping 21 points to 116 (second in baseball). With 166 home runs, the Twins are first in the majors and on pace to eclipse the record 266 the Yankees swatted just last season.
The club’s marked offensive improvement is the product of in-house talent coming into its own and shrewd offseason pickups by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine. A slew of holdovers – shortstop Jorge Polanco (19), center fielder Byron Buxton (19), outfielder Max Kepler (25), utilityman Ehire Adrianza (30), third baseman Miguel Sano (44), and catchers Mitch Garver (53) and Jason Castro (83) – have each boosted their wRC+ by sizable amounts. Meanwhile, unheralded rookie utility player Luis Arraez has recorded a phenomenal 162 wRC+ in his first 95 plate appearances.
The Twins also helped their cause with a few notable additions to their offense over the winter, including the signing of accomplished slugger Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $14.3MM deal. Cruz couldn’t find a multiyear contract because of his advanced age (39), but he still isn’t showing signs of slowing down. He has smashed 16 homers, giving him 376 for his career, and is on track to finish with a 130-plus wRC+ for the sixth straight year.
Fellow free-agent signings Jonathan Schoop (103 wRC+) and Marwin Gonzalez (94) haven’t been close to as effective as Cruz, but Schoop has outdone the offensive output Dozier and Forsythe put up at second in 2018. Gonzalez has come on strong since an ice-cold April, thereby doing his best to justify the two-year, $21MM investment Minnesota made in him.
The team also utilized the waiver wire to its advantage in the offseason, scooping up first baseman C.J. Cron after the Rays cut him on the heels of a 30-home run season. Cron, whom the Rays didn’t want to pay an estimated $5.2MM in arbitration, settled for $4.8MM after catching on with the Twins. The 29-year-old’s numbers have dipped compared to last season’s, though he has still hit .266/.326/.495 (111 wRC+) in 331 PA and added 17 HRs to the Twins’ potentially historic ledger.
With the Twins hoping to vie for a World Series in the season’s second half, it’s fair to wonder whether their offense can keep up this type of pace. Statcast’s expected weighted on-base average metric presents a mixed bag of answers. Castro, Cruz, Gonzalez and Cron have all logged xwOBAs ranging from 29 to 55 points better than their actual marks. On the other hand, the xwOBAs of Polanco and Kepler are 15 points lower, Buxton’s is 26 points inferior, Sano’s lagging by 43 and Garver by 57. However, Polanco, Kepler and Garver are still clearly above average in the category. Meantime, there’s not much difference for Adrianza, Schoop or slugging outfielder Eddie Rosario.
Between a high-octane offense and a quality pitching staff, the Twins are legitimate candidates to play deep into the fall this year. Of course, there’s still work to be done around this month’s trade deadline (perhaps by acquiring another starter and more relief help) for a team trying to hold off the hard-charging Indians in the American League Central.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
An Underrated Waiver Pickup
The Marlins finally parted with catcher J.T. Realmuto last offseason, making him the latest household name to exit Miami via trade. Other than that, the rebuilding club unsurprisingly engaged in a quiet winter. The Marlins handed out just two guaranteed contracts, signing veteran Band-Aids Neil Walker and Sergio Romo for a combined $4.5MM, and made the rest of their acquisitions via low-key trades, minor league signings and waiver claims. Three months into the season, one of those waiver pickups has been a steal for Miami.
The Marlins claimed reliever Austin Brice from the fellow non-contending Orioles on Feb. 4. The transaction reunited the right-handed Brice and the organization he started his career with when it chose him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. Brice stuck with the Marlins for several years and made his major league debut with them in 2016, but they traded him and righty starter Luis Castillo to the Reds in the ensuing offseason as part of a deal for RHP Dan Straily. Considering the emergence of Castillo as a front-line starter in Cincinnati, not to mention that Straily lasted a meager two years in Miami, the trade obviously hasn’t worked out for the Marlins. However, thanks to their reunion with Brice, it looks a tad less unfortunate (albeit still highly regrettable).
Brice, who turned 27 last month, didn’t have the makings of a particularly interesting pickup for the Marlins when they brought him back. He was coming off a two-year stretch with the Reds in which he pitched to a 5.40 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 70 innings. Unimpressed, the Reds decided early in the offseason to cut the cord on Brice. He then had brief winter stints with the Angels and Orioles after each of those teams claimed him off waivers, finally finding a home with the Marlins about two months before the season began.
Just past the halfway point of the 2019 campaign, Brice has come to the fore as one of the most productive waiver additions of the offseason. Through 37 1/3 innings, which ties him for first among Marlins relievers, Brice has logged a sterling 1.93 ERA. Some of his other numbers – including 8.68 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 and a 3.84 FIP – don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. However, Brice ranks much closer to the top of the majors than the bottom in weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.253/.276). He has also been a bear to deal with for both righties and lefties, having limited the former to a .237 wOBA and the latter to a .274 mark.
Brice’s success has come with a change in repertoire. When the Marlins brought Brice back in the winter, president of baseball operations Michael Hill called him a “severe sinkerball pitcher.” Compared to 2018, though, Brice’s sinker usage has, well, sunk. He utilized the pitch 48.5 percent of the time in his Cincinnati swan song, but it’s down to 22.4 in his return to Miami. Brice is now relying primarily on his curveball, which is up to 44.2 percent usage after sitting at 28.1 a year ago and ranks in the league’s 96th percentile in spin rate. He has also leaned heavily on his four-seamer, having thrown it almost 9 percent more than he did last season (28.5 to 19.8).
The switch in pitch mix has yielded encouraging results for Brice, whose curve (.219 wOBA/.253 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.173/.133) have stymied opposing hitters. Turning to those pitches more has helped Brice rank well above average in hard-hit rate against (65th percentile), exit velocity (68th), xwOBA (84th), expected batting average (84th) and expected slugging percentage (93rd).
Nine years after they drafted him, the Marlins may have stumbled on a useful multiyear piece in Brice, who’s not slated to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the end of the 2023 campaign. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team which owns the NL’s worst record, 33-55, and hasn’t had many causes for celebration this season.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/10/19
We’ll track Wednesday’s minor moves throughout baseball here…
- The Rangers announced that corner infielder Patrick Wisdom has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Nashville. The 27-year-old went 4-for-26 with a double in a brief nine-game stint with Texas and has scuffled to a .199/.310/.389 slash in 259 plate appearances with Nashville this season. However, Wisdom mashed at a .288/.363/.480 clip in 421 PAs with the Cardinals’ top affiliate last season. The former supplemental-round pick has a generally solid track record in Triple-A and will stick around with the Texas org as a depth option in the event of further injuries at the MLB level.
Earlier Moves
- The Tigers announced that right-hander Austin D. Adams cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Toledo. Not to be confused with the Mariners reliever of the same first and last name (Austin L. Adams) the 32-year-old Adams returned to the big leagues in 2019 for the first time since 2016 but hasn’t experienced much in the way of success. In 16 2/3 innings between the Twins and Tigers, Adams has a 7.02 ERA with 14 strikeouts, 13 walks and four homers allowed. He logged an impressive 28-to-6 K/BB ratio in 18 innings with Minnesota’s Triple-A club earlier this year and has a lifetime 3.64 ERA and 10.1 K/9 at that level. Adams has previously been outrighted, so he’ll have the option of rejecting the assignment in favor of free agency, although a threadbare Tigers ‘pen that looks likely to lose Shane Greene via trade in the next three weeks could present Adams a viable path back to the Majors later in the year.
Dodgers Notes: Seager, Bullpen Trades, Ryu
The Dodgers announced today that they’ve activated Corey Seager from the injured list and optioned first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Seager, 25, will ultimately miss just under a month due to a strained left hamstring. He’ll now rejoin a Dodgers roster that recently welcomed David Freese back from the injured list and is set to get A.J. Pollock back as well. Los Angeles still has a 13.5 game lead on the second-place Diamondbacks and will likely be in an all-the-more commanding position with several key players back to full strength. However, the L.A. front office still has some work to do in the three weeks leading up to the trade deadline. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on the Dodgers…
- The Dodgers have “varying levels of interest in multiple Giants relievers,” writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles harbor some degree of interest in each of Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta. That quartet likely appeals to the majority of contending clubs throughout the game, though, and there’s no indication within Morosi’s report that there are any substantive talks between the two sides. The Dodgers are loath to part with any of their top four prospects for a rental reliever, making Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz and their own Will Smith unlikely to change hands in any type of deal for one of San Francisco’s short-term assets.
- If the recent comments from Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn’t sufficiently quash the Dodgers/Felipe Vazquez connection, Morosi writes that Pittsburgh would require “at least two” of the four aforementioned top prospects (Lux, May, Smith, Ruiz) to headline a Vazquez deal. Between that and Huntington’s declaration that the team’s “expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” it doesn’t seem wise to bank on Vazquez landing in Los Angeles (or anywhere else, for that matter).
- In a more high-level look at the Dodgers’ trade needs, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com points out that the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers have not been a team that has been willing to deal away its very best prospects, making a high-profile acquisition of Smith, Brad Hand, Vazquez, etc. less likely than some trades to more affordably acquire some second-tier relievers on the market. He suggests that a reunion with Watson or Blue Jays righty Daniel Hudson is more plausible than a marquee splash. (To be clear, those are speculative examples listed by Gurnick rather than specific trades that the Dodgers are actively pursuing.)
- Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s gamble on accepting the qualifying offer made by the Dodgers could prove one of the wisest decisions of the offseason, writes Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, who notes that Ryu is now positioned to cash in on a major contract (without the burden of draft compensation, as players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers). Indeed, over his past 191 1/3 regular-season innings, Ryu has a 1.83 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. More broadly, Castillo’s column is a terrific look at the long road that Ryu took from intriguing high-school prospect coveted by the Dodgers and Twins to 2019 All-Star Game starter. Dodgers fans who have not previously familiarized themselves with Ryu’s path to stardom in the United States will want to be sure to give the story a read-through.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.