AL East Notes: Rays, Yanks, Red Sox, Hazen, Mayza
The latest on four of the American League East’s five teams…
- As of three weeks ago, the Rays expected injured infielder Brandon Lowe to miss the rest of the regular season. That might not happen, though, as manager Kevin Cash suggested Friday that Lowe and right-hander Yonny Chirinos could return, Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets. Lowe was amid one of the league’s best rookie seasons when he went down July 3 with a shin injury, while Chirinos was among the Rays’ top starters before landing on the shelf Aug. 5 with a finger injury. Despite their ongoing absences, Tampa Bay continues to hold an American League wild-card spot, albeit by the thinnest of margins. The Rays are a half-game up on the Indians for the league’s No. 5 seed.
- It’s in question how much more the injury-plagued Yankees will get from catcher Gary Sanchez and designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion this season. Sanchez suffered a strained groin Thursday, per Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. The Yankees are “hopeful” he’ll come back this year, Ackert writes. Meanwhile, Encarnacion incurred a mild internal oblique strain Thursday, though it’s not yet clear how much time Encarnacion will miss. The 36-year-old already sat out almost all of August because of a fractured right wrist.
- Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen was a speculative target for the Red Sox after they fired president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski on Sunday. But Hazen, who worked under Dombrowski in Boston before going to Arizona in 2016, is officially out of the picture after signing an extension Friday. Even before Hazen agreed to that deal, the Red Sox didn’t reach out to the Diamondbacks to request an interview, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. Extension or not, Hazen was already under contract with the D-backs, so they could have shot down the Red Sox had they approached the Snakes with interest in talking to him.
- Reliever Tim Mayza left the Blue Jays’ win over the Yankees on Friday with a left elbow injury, the team announced. It was an ugly scene: Mayza threw a pitch way behind New York shortstop Didi Gregorius, went to the ground clutching his forearm and looked to be in tears (video via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). Mayza will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of the injury, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays, but it won’t be a surprise if his wayward pitch to Gregorius goes down as his last of 2019. At this point, Mayza and the Jays are surely hoping the issue doesn’t prove severe enough to shelve him for any portion of next season.
Indians Notes: Kluber, Ramirez, Hand, Naquin
Cleveland’s crucial matchup against division-rival Minnesota was postponed Friday due to weather, so the Indians are still 3 1/2 games out in the American League Central race. The notable injuries the Indians have faced this season could help keep them out of the playoffs, though they’re just a half-game back of the AL’s second wild-card spot. Let’s check in on a few of the club’s banged up players…
- Right-hander Corey Kluber has “a pretty long way to go in his rehab,” according to Zack Meisel of The Athletic. That jibes with a report last week which indicated Kluber probably wouldn’t return this season. The Indians have been without the two-time American League Cy Young winner since he suffered a fractured forearm May 1 – a start in which Kluber’s uncharacteristic early season struggles continued. The 33-year-old yielded a whopping 23 earned runs in 35 2/3 innings prior to his injury. Regardless of whether Kluber pitches again in 2019, the Indians will have to decide when the year ends whether to exercise his option for $17.5MM option or buy him out for $1MM after the season. As horribly as this season has gone for Kluber, it’s hard to believe the Indians will cut him loose without getting something in return.
- Third baseman Jose Ramirez, another integral member of the club on the injured list, is now playing catch without a wrap on his wrist, per Meisel. However, whether he plays again this season will come down to an ability (or lack thereof) to swing a bat. Ramirez underwent surgery on a fractured right hamate bone Aug. 27, when it was reported he’d need five to seven weeks to come back. The former MVP candidate hasn’t come close to his previous production this year, but he began revisiting his prior form over the previous couple months. The Ramirez-less Indians have mostly turned to rookie Yu Chang at third, though the 24-year-old’s offensive numbers have paled in comparison to the work Ramirez did after he bounced back from his sluggish start.
- Closer Brad Hand, who has been down with a tired arm since last weekend, won’t pick up a ball again until Sunday, Mandy Bell of MLB.com reports. It’s unclear how much more time Hand will miss after that, but this clearly isn’t overly promising news considering the importance of every game left on the Indians’ schedule. The 29-year-old has arguably been Cleveland’s best reliever this season, having recorded a 3.36 ERA/2.89 FIP with 12.94 K/9, 2.88 BB/9 and 34 saves on 39 attempts in 56 1/3 innings.
- Outfielder Tyler Naquin, who tore his right ACL last month, underwent surgery Thursday, Meisel tweets. It’ll take Naquin seven to nine months to return to the majors, which means he’ll miss at least some portion of next season. In the meantime, Naquin will make his first trip through arbitration during the winter. The 28-year-old wrapped up his 2019 as one of the Indians’ top outfielders, as he batted .288/.325/.467 with 10 home runs and 1.5 fWAR in 294 plate appearances.
Jordan Montgomery To Make Season Debut This Weekend
Yankees left-hander Jordan Montgomery hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 1, 2018, but he’s on the verge of making a long-awaited return. Montgomery is expected to make his season debut “in some capacity” this Sunday, James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Meanwhile, fellow lefty J.A. Happ just had a cortisone shot in his biceps, but manager Aaron Boone said he should make a start next week.
Considering he hasn’t pitched in the majors in almost two full seasons, Montgomery has become somewhat of a forgotten Yankee. But before Montgomery underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2018, he looked like a quality homegrown arm for New York. Montgomery, a fourth-round pick of the Yankees in 2014, debuted in 2017 and proceeded to amass 182 2/3 innings and 35 starts of 3.84 ERA/4.09 FIP ball with 8.23 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through last season.
Now, with the playoffs just a couple weeks away, it’s unclear whether Montgomery will factor into the Yankees’ plans when they try to charge toward a World Series in October. On the other hand, a healthy Happ will definitely be someone the team counts on during the fall. Happ exited his start Thursday with a biceps issue, but it seems the Yankees – whom injuries have haunted all season – dodged a serious problem in his case.
Poll: Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Decision
Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is one of a few major leaguers who will have an interesting opt-out decision to make once the offseason arrives. Strasburg will still have four years and $100MM left on the extension he signed with the Nationals in 2016 then, but he has done well in 2019 to make a case for a raise. However, there are extenuating circumstances that could prevent Strasburg from taking the gamble on entering free agency over the winter.
By now, everyone who follows baseball closely knows Strasburg’s story. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick and uber-prospect who debuted with great fanfare in 2010, has dealt with myriad injuries since then, but has largely been outstanding when healthy enough to take the mound. Now, with a potential trip to the open market looming, the 31-year-old is arguably better than ever.
While Strasburg doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his younger days, it hasn’t served as a detriment to his results. He’s at full strength now, having made 30 starts and amassed 191 innings, and has logged a 3.49 ERA/3.22 FIP with 10.79 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Strasburg ranks fourth among qualified starters in innings, seventh in fWAR (5.4), 16th in K/BB ratio (4.67) and 31st among all pitchers in expected weighted on-base average against (.261, which isn’t far from the .270 real wOBA hitters have registered off him). Teammate Max Scherzer rightly gets the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Nats starters, but this year’s version of Strasburg has been lights-out. Previous iterations haven’t been far off, injuries notwithstanding.
Besides Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole, it’s tough to find a better starter than Strasburg who could reach the open market in a couple months. Strasburg, if he opts out, wouldn’t approach the $200MM mark, as Cole could. But Strasburg might be able to outdo the $100MM he’d leave on the table by vacating his current deal. The Boras Corporation client would obviously be taking an enormous risk by heading to free agency, though, as the market hasn’t been enamored of 30-somethings who come with qualifying offers (as Strasburg undoubtedly would) in recent years. That said, there have been over-30 pitchers who have raked in nine figures in free agency in recent years. To name just a couple prominent examples, Zack Greinke got six years and $206.5MM from the Diamondbacks before 2016, when he was set to turn 32. The Cubs gave Yu Darvish $126MM over six years going into 2018, in which he also turned 32.
The Greinke and Darvish deals haven’t worked out swimmingly for the clubs that distributed them, as the D-backs traded a still-highly effective Greinke to the Astros a month and a half ago because they wanted his money off the books. Darvish, meanwhile, has done solid work this season (he struck out 14 in his most recent start Thursday), but 2018 wasn’t a banner year. Overall, he probably hasn’t given the Cubs the type of production they envisioned upon signing him. Those are just a couple cautionary tales that could scare teams away from giving a massive amount of money to an aging Strasburg.
For Strasburg, the recent difficulties accomplished 30-plus starters Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel – both with Cy Youngs on their mantles – have encountered in free agency could scare him away from opting out. Arrieta did land a three-year, $75MM guarantee from the Phillies entering 2018, but that was far less than he sought when he hit the market. Keuchel made out way worse last offseason, sitting without a job until he accepted a one-year, $13MM offer from the Braves this past June.
Of course, it’s quite possible Strasburg could exit his contract and stay with the Nationals. Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw ended last offseason with an opt-out on the two years and $65MM remaining on his pact, but the two sides quickly struck a new agreement for three years and $93MM. Perhaps the Nationals and Strasburg will come together on a similar arrangement that tacks on another year(s) and more money. In the meantime, they and Strasburg will try to win their first World Series (or at least their first playoff series) in the next couple months. After that, his opt-out choice will be a fascinating story to follow. As of now, how do you expect things to play out?
(Poll link for app users)
What do you think Stephen Strasburg will do?
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He'll keep his current deal 52% (2,567)
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He'll opt out 48% (2,386)
Total votes: 4,953
Braves Activate Nick Markakis; Johan Camargo Diagnosed With Shin Fracture
9:50pm: Camargo isn’t necessarily done for the season, according to manager Brian Snitker (Twitter link via Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The hope is that he’ll be ready to return in about three weeks, when the playoffs will already be underway. As noted below, though, even a healthy version might not have been a lock to land on the Braves’ postseason roster.
12:16pm: The Braves announced today that they have activated outfielder Nick Markakis from the injured list, as expected. Utilityman Johan Camargo has been placed on the 10-day IL after being diagnosed with a fractured shin.
The Atlanta organization also called up some fresh arms to help the team manage innings down the stretch. Righties Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright are all heading to the active roster.
Markakis has bounced back from a fractured wrist. He’ll be tasked with getting back up to game speed without the benefit of a rehab assignment. With the Braves secure in their postseason position, they can allow him to get his cuts in without much concern for the outcome.
Meanwhile, the news on Camargo seemingly brings to an end a forgettable season. There’s no official word yet on an anticipated timeline, but it’s tough to imagine he’ll be able to heal up in time to be a factor. Odds are he’d have been left off the postseason roster regardless given his prolonged struggles.
The shin fracture — suffered on a foul ball — shouldn’t dent Camargo’s long-term outlook. But it could slow his offseason work. He’ll be trying to sort things out over the winter after turning in 248 plate appearances of .233/.279/.384 hitting while also posting a downturn in the field. The 25-year-old switch-hitter had been a 3+ WAR performer in 2018.
Yankees Outright Adonis Rosa
The Yankees announced today that they have outrighted right-hander Adonis Rosa. He cleared waivers after recently being designated for assignment.
Rosa, 24, was one of several hurlers cycled into the Yanks’ pen this year before being dropped from the 40-man roster. It’d be hard to glean much of anything from his lone appearance, in which he averaged a marginal 90 mph on his fastball but did manage some swings and misses (15.6%) in a two-inning sample.
More broadly, Rosa has shown more in his 93 career Triple-A innings. He’s a 3.58 ERA pitcher at the highest level of the minors, albeit with an unremarkable combination of 7.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9
Diamondbacks Extend Mike Hazen
The Diamondbacks have extended GM Mike Hazen, the team announced and MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert tweeted. Terms of the multi-year pact remain unknown at this time.
It’s tempting to raise an eyebrow here at the timing. Hazen was originally hired away from the Red Sox and has deep roots there. The powerhouse Boston organization has just launched a hiring search for a new head of baseball ops. But that wasn’t a factor, the team has made clear, with new contract talks having started before the BoSox seat came open.
Regardless, it’s plenty understandable that the Arizona organization was interested in settling Hazen’s long-term status — and ensuring he’d be around for years to come. His original deal ran through the 2020 season, meaning he’d have entered the ensuing offseason as a lame duck of sorts.
While the Snakes haven’t enjoyed runaway success since Hazen took the reins, it’s hard to argue with the work he has done. The long-time Boston exec originally came aboard on the heels of a brutally disappointing 2016 season. At the time, the organization faced an array of challenges: an MLB roster that had talent but wasn’t quite good enough, a few challenging payroll commitments, and a questionable farm system.
It seems fair to say that there have been improvements on all fronts to this point, with Hazen navigating some especially tricky transactional matters. Since taking over, Hazen has traded away superstars Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke. He has allowed long-time stars A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin to depart as free agents. And yet the club is closing in on a third-straight winning campaign, even as it now oversees a manageable slate of future salary obligations and features a much-improved prospect pool.
Remarkably, Hazen has yet to ink a single free agent to a contract of $10MM or more. He has added quite a few low-cost veterans, not all of which have worked out, but has done most of his most notable work via trades and extensions.
Hazen’s first deal remains fascinating. He brought in the since-extended Ketel Marte, who has now morphed into a star, along with the talented but oft-injured Taijuan Walker in a swap that cost Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura. When the Snakes made a surprise charge in his first year at the helm, Hazen landed J.D. Martinez for a relative pittance. He couldn’t get a deal done with JDM, but did extend fellow deadline acquisition Eduardo Escobar at an appealing rate. The Goldy swap netted Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly (along with prospect Andy Young) for one last season of the former MVP.
Most recently, the Greinke deal shed most of the obligations to the veteran starter while adding four promising prospects. Hazen cashed in well-regarded prospect Jazz Chisholm for intriguing young rotation piece Zac Gallen and also brought in steady back-end starter Mike Leake for cheap. Despite the loss of Greinke, the Snakes have threatened a surprise Wild Card run — though that’s a long-shot at this point.
All things considered, it has been an impressive performance to this point for Hazen, who’ll have more interesting decisions to make this winter. While the D-Backs have a lot of ground to make up if they’re to challenge the Dodgers, they have a fair bit of payroll space and young talent to work with. Odds are we’ll continue to see a strategy that largely defies simple categorization, with Hazen focusing not on “contending” or “rebuilding” so much as cost-efficient decisionmaking that enhances the organization’s overall talent base.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
David Dahl Will Not Return In 2019
Rockies outfielder David Dahl says he won’t continue pressing to return late this year, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports on Twitter. That’s not terribly surprising with just two weeks left in a lost season.
Dahl had been working steadily back from a high ankle sprain — the latest in a string of injuries that have limited the talented performer to this point of his career. Fortunately, he says that he is making good progress. And this appears to be a one-off injury, entirely unrelated to the core-muscle maladies that had plagued him previously.
This will still end up being Dahl’s most voluminous MLB campaign to date. He appeared in an even 100 games — meaning he spent sufficient time on the active roster to be eligible for Super Two status. Dahl is certain to have sufficient service time, though his lost time will certainly limit his earnings.
Dahl won’t reach his 26th birthday until next April Fools’ Day, so he’s still plenty youthful. And he’ll be under arbitration control through 2023, meaning the Rox have ample time left to accrue value.
While he doesn’t draw many walks, Dahl hits for a high average with good power. He’s a lifetime .297/.346/.521 hitter in the majors — though that translates to a good-but-not-superlative 110 wRC+ once accounted for context. Defensive metrics haven’t been particularly fond of Dahl’s glovework, though they’re especially hard to trust at Coors Field.
UZR was actually fond of Dahl’s performance in a 300+ inning sample this year in center field. It seems the Rockies agree with that assessment. Skipper Bud Black says that Dahl will play up the middle when he returns next year, as Nick Groke of The Athletic covers on Twitter.
The Rangers Need A Catcher
Set to miss the playoffs for the third straight year, the Rangers reportedly plan to make third base a priority in the offseason. Understandably so, as the position has been a sore spot for the club this year. But the problems the Rangers have faced at the hot corner pale in comparison to the issues they’ve dealt with at catcher, which should absolutely be a spot the club tries to improve over the winter.
Texas made a couple notable changes behind the plate last offseason, jettisoning starter Robinson Chirinos by declining his option and replacing him with free-agent addition Jeff Mathis. It was something of an eye-opener when the Rangers waved goodbye to Chirinos, who had been a strong offensive option for the majority of his tenure with the team, which began in 2013. Chirinos was a questionable defender throughout that period, but even still, his $4.5MM option looked eminently reasonable. The 35-year-old has since moved on to rival Houston, where he has continued his trend of hitting well while providing iffy defense.
Mathis, 36, is essentially Chirinos’ polar opposite. He’s a well-regarded defender who has never really posted big league-caliber work as a hitter. The Rangers guaranteed Mathis $6.25MM, including $3MM in 2020, but they couldn’t have imagined he’d be as close to as woeful at the plate as he has been this season. Mathis entered the year with a career batting line of .207/.274/.297 – good for a wRC+ of 49. Just a reminder that a wRC+ of 100 makes you a league-average offensive player, so Mathis was basically half of that coming into 2019. That’s obviously not good, but it’s far and away superior to the output Mathis has offered in his first season as a Ranger.
Through 244 trips to the plate in 2019, Mathis has batted .158/.209/.224. His wRC+ is 2 (!), which easily ranks last among all major leaguers who have accrued 200 or more plate appearances this season. Likewise, with minus-2.0 fWAR, Mathis sits last in that category. He’s still a decent defender, but when you’re dragging down your team’s offense as much as he has, does it really matter?
As mentioned, the Rangers are stuck paying Mathis a few million dollars next season. But if they’re going to make a real effort to contend then, they better focus on trying to better their situation behind the plate. One problem for the Rangers is that they don’t have an obvious in-house solution behind Mathis. The light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa is all but done as a catcher, Jose Trevino hasn’t been any kind of offensive standout to this point, and prospect Sam Huff – although promising – hasn’t even played above the High-A level thus far. With that in mind, the Rangers will likely have to look outside the organization for a 2020 upgrade over the winter, whether via trade or the open market.
Chirinos will be a free agent again after the season, but it seems unlikely the Rangers will go back down that road one year after booting him from the organization. He’s one of just a few soon-to-be free-agent catchers who offers much at the plate, though. Current Brewer Yasmani Grandal is hands down the game’s cream-of-the-crop pending free agent at backstop, but he’ll command a significant payday, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported this week the Rangers will be hard-pressed to dole out more than one large deal over the winter. It seems that pact will go to either a starting pitcher or a third baseman, which could rule out an earnest pursuit of Grandal.
Fortunately for Texas, the club won’t need to break the bank to pick up a catcher who can outdo the meager contributions Mathis has brought to the table this year. Other free agents-to-be such as Jason Castro (Twins) and Travis d’Arnaud (Rays) are among many catchers who have crushed Mathis’ 2019 production, and either could end up on the Rangers’ radar during the offseason. Regardless, it’s clear the position should be one the Rangers dedicate quite a bit of attention to in the coming months.
Blake Snell Slated To Return Next Week
Rays lefty and reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell is scheduled to return to action next week, he tells reporters including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Snell will take the ball on Tuesday with the expectation of throwing about three innings.
Snell last appeared in late July, at which time he was sidelined with loose bodies in his pitching elbow. He has been working back since undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. The absence has been a bit longer than initially anticipated.
It’s great news for the Rays, who’ll allow Snell to get his competitive rehab work in at the MLB level. There aren’t any more Triple-A games for Snell to appear in. And the Rays’ adaptable pitching staff is accustomed to covering for short starts and bulk appearances.
Snell will join righty Tyler Glasnow in returning with partial availability. Unlike Glasnow, who had been firmly on the rise when he hit the shelf, Snell had taken a step back early in the season. Through 101 innings over his twenty starts to this point, Snell carries a 4.28 ERA.
That said, the Tampa Bay organization has every reason to believe that Snell can get back to being the monster he was in 2018. He had been much the same pitcher by most measures — if not better. He maintained a 3.1 BB/9 walk rate while raising his strikeout game (12.1 K/9, 17.8% swinging-strike rate) and lowering his xwOBA (.263).
There isn’t much time left for Snell to build up his pitch count. He’ll be able to make three total outings before the end of the regular season, so it’s reasonable to presume he’ll still be climbing northward come crunch time. But he’d likely be nearing full availability. And if he goes every fifth day, Snell will be on turn to start the Wild Card game.