2018 Rule 5 Draft Update
Let’s check in on the players chosen in the 2018 Rule 5 draft …
On Active MLB Roster
Richie Martin, SS, Orioles (from Athletics): While most Rule 5 draftees have been shipped back to their original organizations or shelved on the injured list, Martin is sill grinding on the Orioles’ roster. It hasn’t been pretty, as Martin has struck out in 29.2% of his 240 plate appearances while maintaining an ice-cold 81.0 mph average exit velocity. He carries paltry .191/.249/.300 batting line and grades out as a distinct negative at shortstop. He has simply been one of the worst players in baseball. But the rebuilding O’s can take the pain and obviously feel it’s worth the while for the toolsy 24-year-old.
Brandon Brennan, RHP, Mariners (from Rockies): There have been some ups and downs over the course of the season. Brennan has a 55.4% ground-ball rate and has compiled 9.3 K/9 on a 13.7% swinging-strike rate. Unfortunately, he is also dishing out too many free passes (5.3 BB/9) and carries a 5.56 ERA. A strained shoulder offered a respite, but Brennan was activated from the injured list today. With the M’s continuing to churn through pitching to keep their staff afloat, it’s likely Brennan will be afforded further opportunity to establish himself in the majors.
Injured List
Travis Bergen, LHP, Giants (from Blue Jays): The southpaw was mostly solid for the first month and a half of the season, getting knocked around twice for multiple runs but putting up zeroes in fifteen of his sixteen other appearances. Through 17 innings, he carried a 4.24 ERA with 15 strikeouts and seven walks. His 6.7% swinging-strike rate wasn’t exactly cause for excitement, and he’d have faced a tough path to keep his roster foothold over the ensuing months, but a shoulder injury put Bergen on ice. Now well into his rehab, where he owns a 3.63 ERA and 18:10 K/BB ratio in 17 1/3 innings, Bergen could be sent packing if the surprisingly competitive Giants don’t want to clear active and 40-man roster space when he’s ready.
Elvis Luciano, RHP, Blue Jays (from Royals): Still 19, Luciano has been completely overmatched in the bigs. In 27 2/3 innings over twenty appearances, he carries a 6.51 ERA with 22 strikeouts and 23 walks. But the Jays are committed to earning full rights over the live-armed youngster. Now that he’s on ice for an elbow strain, the roster pressures are eased. If Luciano makes it back this year, he’ll likely continue to see sparing action while running out the clock. If not, the team will simply need to put him on the active roster for at least 14 days in order to acquire his rights permanently. (To be kept, a player must be kept on the MLB roster for an entire season, with at least ninety days spent on the active roster. Luciano spent 76 days with the Jays this year before hitting the IL.)
Returned After Start Of Season
Kyle Dowdy, RHP, returned to Indians by Rangers (via Mets): The 26-year-old never found a groove in Texas, allowing more walks (18) than he generated strikeouts (17) in his 22 1/3 innings while pitching to a 7.25 ERA. He hasn’t thrown well in the minors, either, though most of his innings came in a rehab stint with the Rangers. We’ll see whether the Cleveland organization can help him unlock the talent that led to his initial selection.
Riley Ferrell, RHP, returned to Astros by Marlins: Not only did Ferrell endure the tumult of the Rule 5 process, but he failed even to get a single MLB appearance out of the whole affair. An ill-timed, late-spring injury cut off his chance at earning an Opening Day job and the Marlins decided against creating roster space after watching Ferrell’s rehab work. Now back in the Houston organization, he has thrown 7 1/3 solid frames in the upper minors, allowing just one earned run while recording nine strikeouts against four walks.
Reed Garrett, RHP, returned to Rangers by Tigers: It seemed Garrett had a real shot at staking out a bullpen role in Detroit, but he couldn’t keep his edge. Through 15 1/3 MLB innings, he was tagged for 14 earned runs and managed only an ugly 10:13 K/BB ratio. Things haven’t gone all that much better since Garrett landed back at Triple-A with the Rangers org. He’s sporting a 6.03 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 31 1/3 innings there.
Connor Joe, INF/OF, returned to Dodgers by Giants (via Reds): Soon to turn 27, Joe didn’t impress in a 16-plate appearance sample with San Francisco to hang onto his roster spot. But he’s turning in strong work at Triple-A now that he’s back with the Dodgers. Joe owns a .300/.427/.526 slash with 14 home runs and a healthy combination of sixty walks and 68 strikeouts.
Drew Jackson, INF, returned to Dodgers by Orioles (via Phillies): The 26-year-old barely got a look in the majors, striding to the plate four times but failing to record his first hit. Unfortunately, he has not followed up on a promising 2018 campaign now that he’s back in the Dodgers system. In 251 plate appearances at Triple-A, Jackson is slashing just .223/.328/.340.
Chris Ellis, RHP, returned to Cardinals by Royals (via Rangers): Ellis has gone backwards since going back to the St. Louis organization after just one MLB outing in Kansas City. He has been tagged for 7.49 earned runs per nine in 57 2/3 innings. Ellis’s walk total, 37, matches the number he gave out last year — in 132 2/3 frames.
Returned Before Start Of Season
Sam McWilliams, RHP, returned to Rays by Royals: The tall right-hander has taken his licks since being promoted to the hitter-friendly International League, but earned the bump up with a strong run at the Double-A level to begin the season back with the Tampa Bay organization (2.05 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 87 2/3 innings).
Jordan Romano, RHP, returned to Blue Jays by Rangers (via White Sox): As it turns out, Romano got his first look at the majors the old-fashioned way, via mid-season call-up. That only lasted four appearances, but Romano is now on the Toronto 40-man. He has struggled to deliver consistent results, but does have 58 strikeouts in 39 1/3 total innings between the majors and Triple-A.
Nick Green, RHP, returned to Yankees by Diamondbacks: Green still hasn’t really found his footing since going back to the New York organization. After missing time with a shoulder injury, he has posted an ugly 7.91 ERA in 46 2/3 Double-A innings.
Drew Ferguson, OF, returned to Astros by Giants: Ferguson certainly earned his return trip to the Houston organization with a lowly showing in spring camp, but he has equally earned his keep since. Through 382 plate appearances at Triple-A, Ferguson is slashing .290/.398/.449 with nine long balls. If he’s not dealt or added to the 40-man roster over the offseason, he could again be a possible Rule 5 target.
AL Injury Notes: Dyson, Rangers, Luzardo, Zimmermann
Newly acquired Twins reliever Sam Dyson went to the injured list Sunday with right biceps tendinitis. It turns out the issue has been bothering him since mid-July, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets. Dyson let Twins general manager Thad Levine know about the discomfort “a few days ago,” per Park, who reports the club decided to shut him down thereafter. It’s an unfortunate turn of events for Dyson, who had been enjoying a great year before Minnesota acquired him from San Francisco at the trade deadline, and for a Twins team that made him its headlining July pickup. Dyson pitched twice for the Twins before going on the IL and put up calamitous numbers in both outings, yielding six earned runs on six hits and retiring just two hitters.
- The Rangers have shut left-handed prospect Taylor Hearn down for the season because of renewed irritation in his pitching elbow, though doctors don’t believe it’s related to his ulnar collateral ligament, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. Hearn originally suffered the injury during a nightmare of a major league debut against the Mariners on April 25. The 24-year-old Hearn started the game, but he ultimately recorded only one out and gave up five runs (four earned) on four walks and three hits. MLB.com ranked Hearn as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect the day of his first promotion. He’s now 26th on the list.
- Better news from Grant, who reports injured Rangers righties Edinson Volquez and Shawn Kelley are progressing toward returns. Volquez, who’s set to retire after the season, will start a rehab assignment Wednesday as he works back from an elbow strain that has shelved him for almost the whole year. Biceps soreness has kept Kelley out since July 12, though the Rangers could activate him Tuesday. The 35-year-old has served as the Rangers’ closer at times this season, saving 11 of 15 chances, and has posted an effective 3.00 ERA/4.10 FIP with 8.73 K/9, 1.36 BB/9 and a 30.1 percent groundball rate in 33 innings.
- Athletics lefty Jesus Luzardo got through a two-inning rehab appearance unscathed Monday, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Luzardo will now move from the rookie level to Single-A ball, where he’ll make a three-inning start Saturday. The prized 21-year-old hasn’t been able to make his much-anticipated major league debut this season on account of shoulder and lat injuries. Luzardo could, however, serve as a late-season reinforcement for the wild card hopefuls.
- The Tigers placed righty Jordan Zimmermann on the IL on Monday with a right cervical spasm, the team announced. It’s the latest setback in an ugly Detroit tenure for Zimmermann, whose five-year, $110MM contract has been a bad investment for the club from the get-go. This season, Year 4 of the deal, Zimmermann has logged a 7.13 ERA (with a better, albeit unspectacular, 4.80 FIP) in 72 innings.
Seunghwan Oh Signs With KBO’s Samsung Lions
Reliever Seunghwan Oh is returning to his homeland to sign with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports (Twitter links). Oh has inked a one-year, $490K deal to join the Lions, with whom he began his professional career in 2005.
Oh isn’t going to pitch again this year, as he’s set to undergo season-ending elbow surgery. The Rockies released Oh last month after finding out he’d need the procedure, and that parting of ways may go down as the 37-year-old’s final major league transaction. If it does, the right-hander will conclude his big league tenure with a 3.31 ERA, 10.05 K/9 against 2.23 BB/9, 45 holds and 42 saves in 225 2/3 innings divided among the Cardinals, Blue Jays and Rockies.
Oh signed with the Cardinals prior to the 2016 season after a resoundingly successful run in Asia. He pitched with Samsung from 2005-13, during which he saved a KBO-record 277 games, logged a sparkling 1.69 ERA in 510 1/3 innings and earned the nickname the “Final Boss.” Oh then had a highly productive two-year tenure with the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan before he headed to the majors.
Now that he’s back with the Lions, Oh will have to overcome a couple obstacles before taking the mound again. Not only will he have to recover from his surgery, but Oh will be required to serve a 72-game suspension for a gambling conviction in Korea, according to Yoo. He’ll sit 42 games this season and the other 30 next year.
NL Injury Notes: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Brewers
Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill has made just one appearance in relief since he revived his career in 2015, but it’s possible he’ll finish the season in bullpen when he comes off the injured list, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register relays. Hill has been out since June 20 with a flexor tendon strain, and while his recovery’s going well, he may not have enough time to build up his arm strength for a return to the Dodgers’ rotation. “Ideally, starting is the priority,” said Hill, but he’s just eager to “get back to pitching” in some capacity. Meanwhile, utilityman Chris Taylor – who fractured his left forearm July 14 – remains hopeful he’ll come back at the low end of the four- to six-week period the Dodgers said he would miss. Taylor will first have to embark on a rehab assignment, though, and he hasn’t progressed to that point yet.
More from the NL…
- Cubs reliever Brandon Kintzler is dealing with pectoral discomfort, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times was among those to report. The Cubs will have more information on Kintzler on Tuesday, but a stint on the injured list would be another unwelcome development for a bullpen that just lost closer Craig Kimbrel to the IL. Kintzler has rebounded from a rocky 2018 to serve as one of the Cubs’ go-to bullpen arms this season. The 35-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 2.33 ERA/3.45 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 1.94 BB/9 and a 53.3 percent groundball rate in 46 1/3 innings.
- The Phillies are “optimistic” injured lefty reliever Adam Morgan will pitch again this year, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. A second opinion confirmed Morgan won’t need surgery after a flexor strain forced him to the IL on Aug. 2. He won’t return to throwing for two weeks, however, and that’s assuming he gets through that time frame without pain. Morgan owns a 3.94 ERA/4.33 FIP with 8.8 K/9 and 3.03 BB/9 across 29 2/3 frames. Lefties have hit a horrid .143/.250/.204 against him.
- The Brewers sent one of their top starters, righty Zach Davies, to the IL with a back issue on Monday. Davies discussed the problem with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters, saying he’s “not concerned” it’ll lead to a lengthy absence. Davies has fallen flat over his most three most recent outings, though the wild card-contending Brewers can ill afford to go without another starter for a long period. They were already sans their No. 1, Brandon Woodruff, as well as Jhoulys Chacin before Davies hit the shelf. To this point, Davies has defied underwhelming peripherals to post a solid 3.74 ERA in 122 2/3 innings.
Cubs Have Reportedly Shown Interest In Jonathan Lucroy
The NL Central-leading Cubs are suddenly in an unfavorable position behind the plate, where they’ll go without injured star Willson Contreras for about a month. With the trade deadline having passed and short-lived Cubs reserve Martin Maldonado now a member of the Astros, Chicago’s lacking avenues to bolster its depth at catcher. The Angels are set to release veteran Jonathan Lucroy, though, and the Cubs have shown interest in the two-time All-Star, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
Although Lucroy has gone through a rough couple years since his halcyon days with the Brewers and Rangers, the Cubs aren’t in position to be choosy at his spot. Victor Caratini, who has taken over for Contreras, has performed well this season and may have what it takes to hold the position down for the next few weeks. But the Cubs are without a remotely established backup for Caratini, who only has the untested Taylor Davis behind him on the team’s 40- and 25-man rosters. The 29-year-old Davis has picked up a meager 36 plate appearances at the major league level since he debuted in 2017, and he hasn’t provided much offense in the minors over the past couple seasons.
While Davis may not be the answer behind Caratini, the same could apply to Lucroy. Now 33 years old, Lucroy’s once-excellent hitting and formerly pristine pitch-framing skills have experienced severe drop-offs of late. After Lucroy struggled mightily with the Athletics in 2018, he joined the Angels over the winter on a $3.35MM guarantee in free agency. However, the Angels cut the cord on Lucroy after 268 trips to the plate and a gruesome injury he has since recovered from.
Although Lucroy’s 2019 offensive numbers (.242/.310/.371 – good for an 84 wRC+) are presentable for a catcher, he has declined into one of the game’s worst defenders behind the plate. The catcher-needy Cubs could nonetheless take a low-risk flier on Lucroy in hopes he’ll give them a better backup than Davis.
Marcus Semien Hires Wasserman Agency
Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien has hired the Wasserman Agency for representation, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Agent Joel Wolfe will take the lead.
Semien’s agency switch comes amid a breakout campaign for the 28-year-old, a valuable regular from 2015-18 who has found another gear this season. Acquired from the White Sox in a significant December 2014 trade, Semien entered this season as a lifetime .249/.310/.403 hitter with 9.7 fWAR in 2,637 plate appearances. Semien has since has slashed a career-best .276/.363/.480 with a personal-high 4.3 fWAR in 524 trips to the plate. He slugged a pair of home runs Monday, giving him 19 on the season and easily putting him on pace for the second 20-HR showing of his career.
Semien’s offensive strides have come thanks in part to improved plate discipline, as he has posted the top strikeout and walk percentages of his career (13.9 and 11.8, respectively). Meanwhile, Semien has also taken noticeable steps forward as a defender over the past couple seasons. He combined for minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-9.7 Ultimate Zone Rating from 2016-17, but he’s now enjoying his second straight year in the pluses in those categories (13 DRS, 14.4 UZR since 2018).
The well-rounded Semien has emerged as arguably one of the premier middle infielders in baseball – all the more auspicious for a low-budget A’s team that’s not breaking the bank on him. Semien’s making a a team-friendly $5.9MM salary this season, but unfortunately for Oakland, his bargain days don’t look as if they’ll continue for much longer. Next year’s slated to be Semien’s last as an arbitration-eligible player, and though the Athletics have discussed an extension with him, nothing has come together yet.
[RELATED: MLBTR Agency Database]
Dodgers Plan To Start Julio Urias In 2020
Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias has spent the majority of the season working out of their bullpen, but the club expects to change his role in 2020, manager Dave Roberts told Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com and other reporters Monday.
“We project him to be a starter for us next year,” Roberts said, “and many years to come.”
Urias entered the majors as a hyped 19-year-old prospect in 2016. He started in 15 of 18 appearances that season, but because the Dodgers were monitoring his workload as a rookie, he only totaled 77 innings. Urias nonetheless thrived over that span, pitching to a 3.39 ERA/3.17 FIP with 9.82 K/9 against 3.62 BB/9. The hope then was that Urias would offer similar or better production over a larger number of innings going forward, but he instead underwent a major procedure – anterior capsule surgery on his left shoulder – in June 2017 and combined for just 27 1/3 innings between that year and last season.
Set to turn 23 next week, Urias has returned from his injury (and a May domestic violence arrest, for which charges weren’t filed) to serve as one of the strongest members of a somewhat shaky bullpen. He’s hands down the top lefty option in a relief corps that has dealt with significant injuries to veteran southpaws Scott Alexander (our since June 7 with forearm inflammation) and now-Cardinal Tony Cingrani (out all season because of shoulder issues). Through 37 1/3 innings as a reliever, Urias has notched a 1.93 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.44 K/9, 3.13 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent groundball rate. Adding to his value, Urias has given the Dodgers more than one inning in most of his appearances.
As the NL-leading Dodgers take another shot at a World Series this year, they’ll consider deploying Urias as one of their main setup men, per Roberts. Beyond that, with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill scheduled to become free agents over the winter, there will be room for Urias in the Dodgers’ rotation.
Cubs Release Brad Brach
The Cubs announced today that reliever Brad Brach has cleared waivers and been released. He was designated for assignment recently.
Brach’s complicated, restructured contract was never likely to be claimed. The Chicago organization will remain responsible for all ongoing guarantees, less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum salary for any time he spends in the majors with another club.
It seemed at the time that the Cubs made out well by landing Brach for such a reasonable price. But he just never found his groove in Wrigley, scuffling to a 6.13 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 6.4 BB/9 over 39 2/3 innings.
Interestingly, the bulge in Brach’s walk rate occurred even as he put his first pitches in the zone more than ever (63.5%). His average fastball velocity (94.2 mph) and swinging-strike rate (11.9%) sat near recent levels. Statcast calculates an unwelcome 39.3% hard-hit rate, though that can presumably be reversed if indeed Brach’s physical tools are intact.
All things considered, Brach ought to hold appeal as a bounceback candidate to quite a few contending teams. It’s possible he’ll end up taking a minors deal to work out the kinks at Triple-A, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Brach sign directly onto a big league roster.
Yusei Kikuchi’s Difficult Start
The Mariners made a slew of moves last offseason as part of their “reimagining” plan, but no addition came with more hype than free-agent signing Yusei Kikuchi. The club handed the Japanese star a four-year, $56MM contract – a deal that could turn into a seven-year, $109MM pact – with the expectation it was landing at least a mid-rotation starter. The left-handed Kikuchi could still evolve into that for the Mariners, but their investment hasn’t paid off as planned so far.
In his most recent start last Friday, the Astros lit up the 28-year-old Kikuchi for six earned runs on nine hits, including four home runs, in four innings. The performance dropped Kikuchi’s already uninspiring ERA to 5.49 through his first 118 innings in the majors, with FIP (5.95), xFIP (5.18) and SIERA (5.17) indicating he has deserved his poor run prevention numbers thus far. Home runs have been the main problem for Kikuchi, who has yielded them on 20.1 percent of fly balls and surrendered 2.14 HRs per nine innings. He ranks in the bottom five of the majors in both departments, including dead last in the latter category.
Unlike other recent ballyhooed Japanese imports (Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani, to name a few), Kikuchi hasn’t excelled at missing bats in his initial MLB action. While Darvish, Tanaka and Ohtani each struck out more than a batter per inning upon reaching the bigs, Kikuchi has only set down 6.41 per nine via K, which outdoes just five qualified starters. Therefore, even though Kikuchi has logged a decent BB/9 (2.9), he sits 13th last in K/BB ratio (2.21). Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike, chase and contact rates are also subpar.
To this point, Kikuchi has relied on a four-seam fastball (51.3 percent), slider (26.0) and curveball (17.4), per Statcast. The trouble is that two of those offerings – Kikuchi’s fastball and curve – have been eminently hittable. Batters have teed off on Kikuchi’s four-seamer for a .422 weighted on-base average/.386 expected wOBA, while they’ve lit up his curve for a .397/.431 pairing. Although they’ve mustered a .334 wOBA off Kikuchi’s slider, his .271 xwOBA against is far more encouraging. Looking at the location heatmaps for those pitches (via FanGraphs: four-seamer, slider, curve), it’s not hard to believe two have gotten crushed.
Lefties and righties alike have smacked around Kikuchi, who has yielded a .385 wOBA against the former and a .359 versus the latter. While his overall xwOBA against (.339) paints a much more optimistic picture than the actual mark (.369) hitters have put up, that’s not saying much. After all, according to Statcast, Kikuchi still only ranks in the majors’ 24th percentile in the category. Meanwhile, he’s in the league’s 48th percentile or worse in expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage against, hard-hit percentage against, exit velocity against, average fastball velocity (93.0 mph), fastball spin and strikeout percentage.
There clearly hasn’t been much to like about the rookie version of Kikuchi, which isn’t what the Mariners had in mind when they made him their headlining acquisition last offseason. Manager Scott Servais preached patience in regards to Kikuchi on Monday, saying this has been “a developmental year” and he’ll “learn from it.” That may prove to be the case. So far, however, Seattle can’t be thrilled with what Kikuchi has provided.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals Request Release Waivers On Tony Sipp
Lefty Tony Sipp is likely headed back to the open market. The veteran reliever rejected an outright assignment and is now on release waivers, according to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Having already cleared outright waivers, it seems a foregone conclusion that Sipp will reach free agency.
Sipp was dropped from the Nationals’ 40-man roster recently as the team completed a reshaping of its relief corps. The southpaw will receive the remainder of his $1MM guaranteed salary, along with a $250K buyout on a 2020 mutual option, regardless of where he ends up landing next.
There’s little doubt that the southpaw specialist will draw interest from other organizations, though it’s hardly clear whether any will woo him with promises of an immediate MLB job. He’ll be available for just the league-minimum rate of pay, with any earnings partially offsetting the Nats’ remaining obligations.
The 36-year-old Sipp may be a tough player to fit on a 25-man roster right now, but he’d surely be welcome once rosters expand. While he didn’t fare well in D.C. by measure of results (4.71 ERA) or Statcast measures (.284 wOBA-against vs. .340 xwOBA-against), Sipp was still capable of a 12.7% swinging-strike rate.