Rafael Devers’ Star Turn
Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.
Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.
Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.
How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.
Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.
Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.
To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Corey Kluber Will Be Shut Down For Two Weeks
This season has already tested the Indians’ vaunted pitching depth, and the latest development regarding venerable righty Corey Kluber will do so further. He’s now slated for at least a two-week shutdown after leaving his most recent rehab start with an abdominal issue, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports.
It had seemed that Kluber was finally nearing a return after a lengthy layoff owing to a forearm fracture. He’s closing in on three months away from the MLB roster. While it’s good that he hasn’t suffered another elbow ailment, the new malady is worrisome in its own right.
The trouble now is with the calendar. Kluber will need to ramp back up a bit once his rest period is over, all while the team keeps a close eye on his arm health and tries to ensure he does not make things worse in his core. While there’s an obvious desire to take things slowly, the opportunities for minor-league rehab work will expire in early September — though there could be some innings to work with if the division-leading Columbus Clippers can mount a Triple-A postseason run. Beyond that practical concern, there’s simply not much time remaining to build up a pitch count before the season ends.
It’ll be interesting to see how things progress. The Indians will be able to work with an expanded roster once Kluber is ready for action. But they’ll also need to feel good about inserting him into a postseason race in order to get him much-needed work.
The entire situation is loaded with risk and upside for the Cleveland organization. At his best, Kluber is one of the game’s preeminent starters. Even if he’s not capable of working as a full starter in the postseason, he might be a key piece of the roster. It’s stunning just how effective the Indians rotation has been despite the huge in-season changes it has undergone, but it’s not as laden with aces as was expected entering the year. In the background is Kluber’s contract, which includes a pair of options — $13.5MM and $14MM, each with $1MM buyouts — that could be a major organizational asset if he’s able to regain his form.
Cubs Option David Bote
The Cubs have optioned utility man David Bote to Triple-A, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times was among those to tweet. It seems that’s the roster move to make way for the return of righty Steve Cishek.
Bote, 26, has been a constant presence on the MLB roster this year since inking a surprise extension in April. He was off to a big start but cooled off considerably over June and July. After a recent hot streak, he’s sitting right near the league average offensively with a .257/.352/.429 slash over 310 plate appearances.
Given the difficulties, it’s no surprise that Bote has lost playing time over the course of the season. He has mostly appeared at third base, with Kris Bryant moving to the corner outfield on such occasions. Defensive metrics have taken a dimmer view of Bote’s work at the hot corner than they did last year, for what it’s worth.
More than anything, this move simply represents some late-August roster management — though it is also reflective of an evolving lineup pecking order. Bote will get some steady plate appearances at Triple-A before rosters expand at the outset of September, at which time he’ll surely be summoned back to the majors. No matter how things shake out down the stretch, he’s playing on a guaranteed contract through 2024 with two additional seasons of club control via option.
The Best Young Starters Of 2019
We’re nearing the end of the 2019 regular season, a campaign which has featured plenty of valuable contributions from young starters. By my count, no fewer than 10 starters age 25 or younger have excelled this year. Several of them could continue helping their teams’ causes once the postseason rolls around in a couple months. In alphabetical order, let’s take a look at the best of the bunch…
Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2019; scheduled for free agency after 2022):
- This has been the third straight quality season for Berrios, who has amassed 157 2/3 innings of 3.37 ERA/3.92 FIP ball with 8.56 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9. Aside from a rough debut in 2016, Berrios has been among the most impressive young starters in the game throughout his career.
Shane Bieber, RHP, Indians (age: 24; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency after 2024):
- Bieber was terrific over a 114 2/3-inning debut in 2018, but he has been downright spectacular this year. While Bieber won the MVP of the All-Star Game, which was held in his team’s city of Cleveland, he has been even more impressive in meaningful action. Bieber owns a 3.27 ERA/3.32 FIP with 11.09 K/9 against 1.83 BB/9 in 162 1/3 frames of action. Only four starters have outdone Bieber’s K/BB ratio of 6.06.
Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):
- Buehler, whose fastball averages just under 97 mph, is one of the few starters to outperform Bieber in K/BB ratio (6.38). His 10.57 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 have helped him log a sterling 3.31 ERA/3.00 FIP over 141 1/3 innings, thus aiding Buehler in replicating the phenomenal production he posted during his 137 1/3-frame rookie campaign a year ago.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals (age: 23; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):
- One of the youngest starters on this youth-laden list, Flaherty was superb across 151 innings last year and has followed that up properly this season. While Flaherty owned an unattractive 4.90 ERA as recently as July 2, he has caught fire since then. In his most recent eight starts, Flaherty has yielded a mere five earned runs on 25 hits with 61 strikeouts and 14 walks in 50 1/3 innings. Flaherty now owns a 3.46 ERA/4.02 FIP and 10.39 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 through 140 1/3 innings this season.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):
- As we covered in greater detail back in May, Giolito has figured it out this season. The former can’t-miss prospect was a disaster as recently as last year, but the 2019 version has recorded a nearly matching 3.41 ERA/3.37 FIP with 11.48 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 in 142 2/3 innings. Giolito’s success has come thanks in part to a dramatic increase in velocity – after averaging 92.8 mph on his fastball in 2018, he’s up to 94.5 this season.
German Marquez, RHP, Rockies (age: 24; team control: signed through 2023 for a guaranteed five years and $43MM):
- The hard-throwing Marquez doesn’t get nearly enough recognition, largely because he pitches in Colorado, but the fact that he’s able to succeed despite calling Coors Field home should earn him extra credit. He was an absolute strikeout machine in 2018, when he punched out 230 hitters in 196 innings en route to a 3.77 ERA/3.40 FIP. That convinced the Rockies to lock up Marquez at set prices for the foreseeable future. Good move on their part. Although Marquez hasn’t been as effective this season, any team would take the 4.71 ERA/3.95 FIP, 9.16 K/9 against 1.77 BB/9, and 50 percent groundball rate he has put up over 168 frames.
Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres (age: 23; eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency 2024):
- Paddack has had a tough time over three August starts, but the former top prospect has nonetheless lived up to his pre-MLB billing this year. The rookie has registered a 3.44 ERA/4.21 FIP with 9.47 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 in his first 115 major league innings. If you’re a fan of WHIP, Paddack’s minuscule 0.98 mark ties him with Astros stars Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke for fourth among those who have tossed 100-plus innings in 2019.
Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves (age: 22; eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):
- We arrive at the youngest starter on this list, someone who’d have a better shot at NL Rookie of the Year honors if not for the exploits of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. But Soroka will definitely get some votes in his own right, especially considering he’s the premier starter on a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. The sinker-reliant Soroka has managed a brilliant 2.41 ERA/3.29 FIP with 7.15 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a groundball percentage of 54.0 through 134 2/3 innings this season.
Injury omissions:
None of the Yankees’ Luis Severino, the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani or the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. have thrown a pitch this season because of injuries. The 25-year-old Severino, who could still take the mound sometime in the next couple months, may be the most enticing pitcher of the trio. He was a true ace from 2017-18, a 384 2/3-inning span in which he pitched to a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP with 10.53 K/9 against 2.27 BB/9. Ohtani, also 25, only racked up 51 2/3 frames during his debut season in 2018, but the two-way star wowed then with a 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP and 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9. And McCullers, yet another 25-year-old, combined for 453 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA/3.24 FIP ball with 10.1 K/9, 3.53 BB/9 and a strong 54.6 percent groundball rate from 2015-18 before joining Ohtani in undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall.
Honorable mentions:
No disrespect to the Braves’ Max Fried (25) or the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson (24), but they’re overshadowed by better teammates in Soroka and Flaherty, respectively.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Chris Sale Out For Remainder Of Regular Season
5:17pm: The team update does have some bad news: Sale has received a platelet-rich plasma treatment and will be shut down for at least six weeks. He’ll be reevaluated at that time.
Whether there’s any possibility of Sale appearing in the postseason isn’t known. But with less than six weeks to go before the end of the regular season, it’s now certain he will not be able to help the club make a last-ditch run at sneaking into Wild Card position.
The update doesn’t fill in any blanks regarding the underlying issues in the joint. But given the course of treatment, it seems reasonable to presume that the medical team has identified something beyond inflammation alone.
4:04pm: If you’re a Red Sox fan, you may now safely exhale. Boston lefty Chris Sale will not require Tommy John surgery, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
Precisely what is wrong with Sale’s elbow isn’t yet clear. But it seems that a visit to Dr. James Andrews did not reveal anything beyond the inflammation that initially sent the southpaw to the injured list.
We’ll keep updating the situation as further information emerges. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes (via Twitter) that the club is preparing to release a statement on the topic of Sale’s health.
Braves Claim Billy Hamilton
The Braves have claimed outfielder Billy Hamilton off waivers from the Royals, per a club announcement. The Atlanta organization will be responsible for the remainder of Hamilton’s $4.25MM salary along with a $1MM buyout on a mutual option.
It’s a fairly significant price to pay, but understandable under the circumstances. The Braves have lost their two best left-handed-hitting outfield options, Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte, to injuries that may not heal by the end of the season. Lacking the ability to strike a trade for a MLB contract, the club had limited avenues for acquiring a replacement. The
As we noted when Inciarte’s injury arose, Hamilton is in the same general sub-category of player. Both are speedy, defensive-oriented center fielders who hit from the left side. If Inciarte is something of an archetype, Hamilton is an extreme version of the class. Hamilton has been an exceedingly valuable fielder and baserunner, though he has minimal power and has rarely reached base at palatable rates.
This year, Hamilton’s bat has sunk even further. At the time of his departure from the K.C. roster, he had produced 305 plate appearances of 44 wRC+ output. He’s still valued as an excellent defender and baserunner, though there has been a bit of erosion in Hamilton’s most notable physical skill. By measure of Statcast, his sprint speed has fallen from a 99+ percentile placement in recent years to the 97.5th percentile this season.
While Hamilton hasn’t been at his best in 2019, he ought to help shore things up down the stretch. And he’s a fascinating postseason roster piece as a potential late-inning pinch runner and/or defensive replacement. That’s arguably worth a premium to a team that’s all but assured of a postseason appearance. As we discussed in profiling some August waiver claim candidates, the Braves can perhaps afford to splurge on a needed addition given that they were bailed out of the remainder of their obligations to Kevin Gausman.
Rangers Designate David Carpenter
The Rangers announced that they have designated righty David Carpenter for assignment. It’s the second time he has been bumped from the MLB roster this season.
The move coincides with the team’s decision to send fellow right-hander Adrian Sampson to the 10-day injured list due to a lower back issue. To take the open roster spots, the club has recalled first baseman/outfielder Scott Heineman and righty Phillips Valdez.
Carpenter, 34, made it back to the majors this season for the first time since 2015. And he earned his way back up after his brief initial stint. Over 34 2/3 Triple-A innings on the season, he carries a 1.82 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Unfortunately, Carpenter hasn’t shown up in his limited big league frames, allowing four earned runs with a 2:4 K/BB ratio in four appearances.
Rockies Claim Wes Parsons
The Rockies announced that they’ve claimed right-handed reliever Wes Parsons off waivers from the Braves, who had designated him for assignment over the weekend. In order to make room on the 40-man roster, the Rox moved Scott Oberg from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, definitively ending his season. Oberg went on the IL over the weekend due to a blood clot.
With an immediate need for fresh arms and a longer-term interest in finding cost-efficient relief pitching, it’s no surprise that the Rox made a strike here. Parsons hasn’t quite reached his 27th birthday, has options remaining, and is still a long way from arbitration. It’s possible he’ll be given a chance to pitch his way into the team’s plans for 2020.
If he’s to take advantage of the opportunity, Parsons will need to improve upon his initial showing in Atlanta. He carried a 3.52 ERA through 15 1/3 MLB innings this year, but didn’t get there in style. With 13 walks to go with a dozen strikeouts, along with a lowly 6.9% swinging-strike rate, it was clear that Parsons wasn’t fooling MLB hitters.
That said, there’s still reason to hope for better. Parsons has a history of quality results in the upper minors; this year, at Triple-A, he worked to a 2.86 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 along with a 56.8% groundball rate. No doubt the Rox are particularly intrigued by the fact that Parsons has typically induced quite a few worm burners and limited the long ball as a minor-leaguer.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Athletics To Promote A.J. Puk
The Athletics will promote left-hander A.J. Puk from Triple-A Las Vegas prior to tomorrow’s game, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Puk, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2016 draft, will need to have his contract formally selected. Oakland has an opening on its 40-man roster to accommodate him.
Puk, 24, is considered by virtually every major prospect outlet to be among the game’s top 50 prospects. He’s viewed as a potential key piece to the Athletics’ rotation down the road, but he’s been working primarily in relief this season as he works back from 2018 Tommy John surgery. The towering 6’7″ southpaw has a lackluster 4.97 ERA in 25 1/3 minor league innings this season, but he’s also punched out 38 hitters against 10 walks in that time.
Fangraphs currently rates Puk as baseball’s No. 21 prospect, putting a 65 grade on his fastball, a 60 on his slider and giving him the potential for two more average or better offerings in his changeup and curveball. MLB.com lists Puk 43rd among MLB prospects and dropped a 70 grade on his heater with a 65 on his slider. Puk, who paced all minor league starters with 13.2 K/9 in his last full season back in 2017, is touted as a potential No. 2 starter at the Major League level. He’ll likely get the opportunity to make good on those bullish forecasts in 2020, alongside the likes of Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and perhaps fellow ballyhooed left-hander Jesus Luzardo, but for now he’ll step into Bob Melvin’s bullpen and look to help shut things down in the late innings.
Oakland has three left-handers in the ‘pen at the moment, with Jake Diekman, Wei-Chung Wang and Ryan Buchter all giving Melvin southpaw options. All three of those southpaws have had issues with commanding the strike zone, though, and none can match Puk’s overall ceiling as a game-changing relief weapon. Taking a broader look, Oakland has seen closer Blake Treinen follow up a dominant 2018 campaign with a dismal 2019 showing. Fellow righty Lou Trivino has taken similar steps backward, leaving the A’s with a bullpen that’s been weaker than they anticipated.
By promoting Puk now, the A’s will be positioning themselves to control him through 2025 season, although future optional assignments to the minors could yet impact that timeline. If he’s in the big leagues from Tuesday through season’s end, he’ll accrue 41 days of big league service, though, meaning in order to push his path to free agency back until the 2026-27 offseason, the A’s would need to keep him in Triple-A for nearly two months next season. In other words, this appears quite likely to be a chance for Puk to cement himself as a big leaguer and leave the minor leagues behind. If he is indeed in the Majors for good, he wouldn’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2022 season.