MLB Trade Rumors

Logan Gilbert is coming off his best season yet, posting a 3.23 ERA and outstanding strikeout and walk rates over a Major League-leading 208 2/3 innings.  The former 14th overall pick has lived up to the hype since making his MLB debut in 2021, and while he has cemented his place in the Mariners’ rotation, he isn’t yet a lock for the team’s future plans.  Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that “there has been little discussion about a long-term deal” between the two sides, and “nothing is imminent in that regard.”

There are several reasons why the lack of talks shouldn’t raise an alarm for M’s fans.  Gilbert is only entering his second year of arbitration eligibility, and he is under team control through 2027 as a Super Two player.  Gilbert and the Mariners avoided a hearing last winter by agreeing to a $4.05MM salary for 2024, and the right-hander’s big performance this year has put him in line for a projected $8.1MM salary in 2025.

Those numbers will keep rising if the 27-year-old Gilbert keeps pitching well in his remaining arb years, but that would still represent a relative bargain for the Mariners to have ace-level production in their rotation.  Signing Gilbert to an extension prior to Opening Day would give the M’s some cost-certainty through the rest of his arbitration years and beyond, and such a deal might still end up being a bargain since Gilbert might just be getting better.

The 2024 season saw Gilbert post a career-best 27.4% strikeout rate and 31.7% whiff rate, in addition to his usual excellent control.  His 39.3% hard-hit ball rate was also the best of his four Major League seasons, and while this only ranked in the 44th percentile of all pitchers, Gilbert had never topped the 11th percentile in any of his prior three years.

As a whole, Seattle’s rotation is not only perhaps the best in baseball but also the most cost-effective.  Luis Castillo has the big contract of the bunch in the form of the five-year, $108MM extension he signed in September 2022, but Gilbert is entering his second arb year, George Kirby is projected for $5.5MM in his first arb year, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are still in their pre-arbitration years.  Former sixth overall pick Emerson Hancock hasn’t shown much over his 72 2/3 career MLB innings, but he is another promising young arm that would’ve gotten a longer look in pretty much any rotation that didn’t have such quality and durability.

This abundance of pitching talent is great for the Mariners in many ways, including the level of flexibility it gives the team in approaching extension talks.  With a nod to the “you can never have enough pitching” credo, the M’s don’t necessarily need to lock up Gilbert as soon as possible since so many other talented hurlers are on hand.  All of the remaining team control for the non-Castillo pitchers gives the Mariners extra time to weigh their options about which of the younger arms (if any) can be long-term cornerstones.  For instance, if the M’s have already seen enough from Miller or Woo, signing either to an extension earlier in their careers would come at a lower cost than an extension for Gilbert.

If any of these starters aren’t really in Seattle’s big-picture plans, a trade is always possible, which is the broader theme of Jude’s piece.  President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has strongly downplayed the idea that the Mariners will deal from their rotation this offseason, though Dipoto’s stance could soften if another team makes a strong enough offer.  Specifically, if that offer contains a comparatively talented young hitter with extra years of team control, moving a starter for this hitter would help a Seattle club in sore need of offensive help.

This isn’t to say that Gilbert would necessarily be the pitcher traded, escalating salary notwithstanding.  One NL scout told Jude that “if they have to trade someone, Miller would make the most sense,” though the scout also felt “it would be ridiculous for them to trade any of their starters.”  As Jude notes, Miller has such drastic home/away splits (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings in Seattle, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings elsewhere) that other teams may be wary that Miller’s success has been a product of his pitcher-friendly ballpark.  Castillo is the least-likely trade candidate, according to one source, due to his larger contract and the fact that he’s entering his age-32 season.