Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Angels, Jose Quijada Avoid Arbitration
The Angels announced Tuesday that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Jose Quijada to a one-year contract with a club option for the 2026 season, avoiding arbitration in the process. Quijada, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, will be paid $1.075MM this coming season, per the team. (The Angels are one of just a few major league teams that publicly announce financial details of their transactions.) The 2026 option is valued at $3.75MM.
Quijada had filed for a $1.14MM salary in his second trip through the arb process. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery during his first trip through arbitration and thus landed on an $840K salary that wasn’t too far north of last year’s $740K minimum. The Halos countered with a $975K proposal.
Today’s agreement checks in north of the midpoint between those two sums. Because it includes a club option, it won’t be considered a true “one-year deal” for the Angels or other clubs leaguewide; that’s important with regard to arbitration specifically, as arb negotiations are based on comps for prior one-year deals for players in the same service class. Even if the Angels decline the club option, Quijada would remain under their control for 2026 and would simply be arbitration-eligible once again.
The 29-year-old Quijada finished up his recovery from that 2023 Tommy John procedure in late July. He returned to the Halos and appeared in 22 games in the season’s final nine weeks, logging 19 1/3 innings with a tidy 3.26 ERA. He set down a hearty 28.6% of his opponents on strikes but also issued walks at an alarming 20.2% clip. Command has been a long-running issue for Quijada but not to that extent; in 108 2/3 prior big league innings, he’d walked 13.8% of batters faced.
Even with that problematic command, Quijada comes at an affordable rate and brings some clearly tantalizing traits to the table. He logged a big 14% swinging-strike rate this past season, in part due to an uncanny knack for missing bats within the strike zone. Opponents made contact at just a 78.8% clip on in-zone pitches offered by Quijada — well shy of the 85.2% league average. The lefty’s velocity also strengthened over the course of his return; he averaged 93.5 mph on his heater through his first two weeks off the injured list but sat 94 mph on average thereafter. With a bit more time to continue building up, he may well have returned to the 94.5 mph average he posted in his last full, healthy season in 2022.
With Quijada’s case now resolved, the Angels have cleared up one of three pending cases. Infielder Luis Rengifo filed for a $5.95MM salary. The team countered at $5.8MM. Outfielder Mickey Moniak filed at $2MM to the team’s $1.5MM. You can read more about the reasons for teams and players go to battle over ostensibly trivial sums like this in this 2015 piece I wrote after chatting with several general managers and assistant GMs around the league.
Poll: Who Would You Elect From This Year’s Hall Of Fame Ballot?
The results of this year’s round of Hall of Fame voting will be announced at 5PM CT this evening. Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, and Billy Wagner appear to stand the best chance among this year’s crop of players to join the immortal ranks of Cooperstown alongside Dick Allen and Dave Parker this summer. That doesn’t mean they’re the only players worth considering, however. 28 names in total are on this year’s ballot, and while we won’t go over every single name, plenty of players have solid cases to be elected.
Suzuki has a chance to go into the Hall as its second-ever unanimously elected player, and it’s easy to see why. The ten-time All-Star won both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards in the AL back in 2001, his age-27 season, after a nine-season stint in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He went on to play parts of 19 seasons in the majors, collect 3,089 hits and steal 509 bases and win ten Gold Glove awards, three Silver Slugger awards, and two AL batting titles. Combined with his years playing overseas, Suzuki has 4,367 hits over a 28-year career in professional baseball.
Sabathia, meanwhile, won’t get in unanimously but stands a good chance of making it in during his first year of eligibility. The southpaw played 19 seasons in the majors, with a solid career 3.74 ERA (116 ERA+) to go along with 3,093 strikeouts and 251 wins at the big league level. The six-time All-Star won the AL Cy Young award with Cleveland back in 2007 and went on to finish in the top 5 of Cy Young award voting four more times throughout his career. He eventually won the 2009 World Series with the Yankees, earning ALCS MVP honors along the way as he pitched to a 1.98 ERA while striking out 32 batters in 36 1/3 innings of work across five starts during that postseason run.
As for Wagner, the lefty enters his final year of eligibility after missing election last year by just a few votes. The reliever pitched just 903 innings over his 16 years in the majors, but the seven-time All-Star was undeniably dominant when on the mound with a career 2.31 ERA (187 ERA+). He also collected 422 saves throughout his career, making him one of just eight players to record 400 saves in MLB history, while his career 33.2% strikeout rate would not only be by far the best among Hall of Fame relievers but trails only active closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel among all 265 relievers in MLB history with at least 600 innings pitched in their careers.
Aside from the top three names, the only players with a realistic shot at election this year are Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. A nine-time All-Star and the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year, Beltrán played 20 years in the majors and during that time racked up 2,725 hits, slugged 435 homers, and stole 312 bases. During his peak seasons with the Royals and Mets from 2001 to 2008, Beltrán was worth 47 bWAR and 46.6 fWAR as he slashed .282/.363/.513 while collecting five All-Star appearances, three Gold Glove awards, and two Silver Slugger awards. However, his case may be complicated by his involvement in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal.
Meanwhile, Jones is a 10-time Gold Glove award winner and is generally considered to be one of the best defensive center fielders of all time if not the very best. From 1997 to 2007, Jones combined that generational defense with strong offensive numbers, hitting .263/.343/.498 with 363 homers during that time en route to 60.9 bWAR and 64.2 fWAR.
While other players on the ballot don’t have a clear shot towards election this year, that hardly means they lack legitimate cases for the Hall of their own. Chase Utley struggled to stay on the field throughout the later years of his 16-year career, but his peak seasons from 2005 to 2011 are impossible to argue with as he slashed .293/.383/.513 with five All-Star appearances, four Silver Slugger awards, and three top-ten MVP finishes en route to 49.3 bWAR and 47.7 fWAR over that seven-year period.
Álex Rodríguez, Manny Ramírez, and Andy Pettitte all have impeccable arguments for the Hall in terms of stats but have had their candidacies bogged down by their PED usage. Félix Hernández has an unbelievable peak with a 2.90 ERA (134 ERA+), six All-Star appearances, an AL Cy Young award and five other top-ten finishes in Cy Young balloting during an eight-year stretch from 2008 to 2015 but pitched his final MLB game at the age of 33. Bobby Abreu lacks the awards and accolades of his peers on the ballot but was a career .291/.395/.475 hitter across 18 years in the majors. That .395 on-base percentage would be tied for 41st among 171 Hall of Fame hitters.
Meanwhile, a number of players are currently fighting to stay on the ballot for next year. Francisco Rodríguez, Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Ian Kinsler, and Torii Hunter have all received votes this cycle but have less than 10% of the vote among publicly revealed ballots. Anyone who finishes below 5% in the final results is kicked off the ballot, and of that quintet only Rodríguez is above that benchmark on publicly revealed ballots.
If you had a Hall of Fame ballot, who would you vote for? Have your say in the poll below, which allows you to vote for multiple players. As a reminder, Hall of Fame voters may only select a maximum of ten names on their ballots.
Mariners Outright Samad Taylor
The Mariners announced Tuesday that infielder/outfielder Samad Taylor, whom they designated for assignment last week, passed through waivers unclaimed and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Tacoma. He’ll remain with the organization and presumably head to major league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.
Seattle acquired Taylor, now 26, just under one calendar year ago. He’d been designated for assignment by Kansas City, and the M’s scooped him up by trading a player to be named later (eventually announced as Natanael Garabitos) to the Royals in return.
Taylor appeared in only three games for the Mariners this past season, going 2-for-5 in that time. He spent the vast majority of the season in Tacoma, where he posted a .262/.352/.380 slash in 136 games and 599 plate appearances. Taylor’s 11.4% walk rate and hefty 50 stolen bases are both plenty appealing, but he posted bottom-of-the-scale batted-ball metrics: an 86.1 mph average exit velocity and 26.6% hard-hit rate in Tacoma. He also fanned in 26% of his plate appearances.
Defensively, Taylor has played primarily second base in his career, though has has experience at shortstop, third base and all three outfield slots. The Mariners will surely be happy to stash that versatility, blistering speed and patient approach at the plate in the upper minors as non-roster depth.
Pirates Agree To Minor League Deals With DJ Stewart, Ryder Ryan
The Pirates have agreed to minor league deals with outfielder DJ Stewart and right-hander Ryder Ryan. Stewart’s deal was first reported by Mike Mayer of Metsmerized while Ryan’s was first reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Stewart is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Stewart, 31, spent the past two years with the Mets. He had a nice run for them in 2023, hitting 11 home runs in just 185 plate appearances. He struck out at a 30.3% clip but the power was enough to get him back on the team in 2024. This past year, he was only able to put the ball over the fence five times in 194 trips to the plate. He drew walks at a stellar clip of 16% but hit .177/.325/.297 overall, getting outrighted at season’s end.
When combined with his tenure as an Oriole, Stewart has 1,001 major league plate appearances now. His 12.8% walk rate is strong but he’s also been punched out at a 27.1% clip. Thanks to the free passes and his 42 home runs, he’s been a decent hitter in spite of the strikeouts. His career line of .212/.328/.401 leads to a 102 wRC+, indicating he’s been 2% better than league average on the whole.
Despite the solid overall offense, there are limits to his overall profile. Ideally, he is deployed as a platoon bat. The lefty swinger has a .214/.332/.430 line and 110 wRC+ against righties, compared to a .204/.309/.270 line and 66 wRC+ against southpaws. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his defense has received poor grades.
Still, he’s a sensible enough flier for the Pirates. They have two outfield spots spoken for between Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, though one corner is fairly wide open. Guys like Joshua Palacios, Billy Cook, Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae are on the roster but none of them are guaranteed a regular role and it’s entirely possible that someone like Stewart could outplay them, at least for a strong-side platoon gig. If Stewart gets a spot, he’s out of options but has less than four years of service time, meaning he could be retained beyond this year via arbitration if he still has a roster spot at season’s end.
Ryan, 30 in May, has a fairly limited track record at the major league level. He has 16 appearances, 15 of which came with the Bucs last year. He has allowed 5.40 earned runs per nine innings in his small sample of 21 2/3 career frames. The Pirates outrighted him off the roster in August and he elected free agency at season’s end. Over the past four years, Ryan has thrown 200 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 4.31 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.
He’ll provide the club with some non-roster bullpen depth. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he still has one option year remaining and could therefore be shuttled to Triple-A and back fairly freely.
Blue Jays, Astros Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar
It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar thus far, but with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the top corner outfield bat on the market. The Blue Jays, who just signed Santander for five years, and the Astros are among the teams with interest in the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Network this morning (video link). The incumbent Padres have also been tied to Profar this winter and very clearly love him as a player and person, but it’s far from clear the front office will have that kind of spending power. The Friars have reportedly been working to scale back payroll this winter, and that was before recent ownership tumult.
Profar, 32 next month, is fresh off a career year where he improved in just about every measurable category. His .280 average, .380 on-base percentage and .459 slugging percentage all ranked as career-best marks. The former top prospect made massive gains in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, all while posting his best walk rate (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has long had a plus eye and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the contact he made was often lacking punch. That wasn’t at all the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 games/668 plate appearances.
The fit with Toronto isn’t as clean with Santander now in the fold on a $92.5MM contract, but there’s still room to move things around. Playing Santander regularly in right field — or having Santander and George Springer split time between right field and designated hitter — would open up left field for Profar (who could see occasional DH time himself). That’d likely come at the expense of playing time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, but Profar would be a pronounced upgrade over both if he can replicate or even approximate last year’s breakout showing.
Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxury penalization. They very narrowly dipped under the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty level in the process, meaning they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any dollars allocated to Profar (or another free agent). They’re currently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which would be a club record.
Turning to Houston, their outfield is a clear weak spot on the roster — at least on paper — following the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston will have Jake Meyer in center field, where he’ll be flanked by a combination of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Other options on the 40-man roster include Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an upgrade would be a worthwhile pursuit.
Ownership’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open question. Jim Crane has said he’s open to paying the luxury tax for a second straight season — and just the second time in his ownership tenure — but there’s been mixed messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston offered Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a legitimate offer, and the corresponding $26MM average annual value would’ve sent the ’Stros careening into the middle tiers of luxury penalty.
On the other hand, trading Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the opposite direction. Granted, that swap helped to pave the way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. But, it can be argued that if Crane were truly amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he could’ve fit Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The team has also been shopping reliever Ryan Pressly throughout the offseason, and general manager Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by speaking of a need to “get creative” with payroll. None of those facts portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at least not by any notable amount.
As things stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, but only by a narrow margin of about $3MM. A trade of Pressly or another player — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — could drop them back under that line, but it’d be tough to shoehorn Profar in under the barrier without finding a trade partner for Pressly and another player. If Crane is willing to take a small CBT hit, knowing dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will help them reset their penalty level next offseason, then moving Pressly on its own might be enough to make things line up.
Time will tell how the market for Profar plays out, but he’s now the most-productive left fielder still sitting on the market. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d come with the type of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), but something in the range of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have seemed too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many teams already having filled their roster needs, demand might not be sufficient to get Profar to such heights, but a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV still seem plenty feasible.
Dodgers, Kirby Yates Reportedly Reach “Tentative” Agreement
10:55am: There’s nothing official in place yet, per reports from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (among others). Harris writes that the two parties are “working toward a deal,” while The Athletic indicates “serious” negotiations are taking place. There could simply be semantics at play. Nightengale’s initial report plainly stated that a physical still needs to take place, so there’s never been firm indication of a final deal yet. A physical for a 38-year-old pitcher with Yates’ injury history isn’t necessarily a layup, but that seems to be the stage they’ve reached. If all goes well, a deal would be announced in the next few days.
9:52am: The Dodgers and reliever Kirby Yates have reached a “tentative” agreement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract is pending completion of a physical. Yates, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, would be the second high-profile bullpen addition for the Dodgers in recent days; they also inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM deal over the weekend. If the physical goes well and the deal is indeed finalized, L.A. will need to make a corresponding transaction to remove someone from the 40-man roster.
It’s the latest strike in an offseason spending blitz that has seen the Dodgers make free agent plays for Scott, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Treinen, Michael Conforto and international stars Hyeseong Kim and Roki Sasaki. Those additions come as Los Angeles looks to become the first repeat World Series champion since the Yankees’ threepeat back in 1998-2000.
Manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen has been completely remade over the past six months, beginning with the deadline acquisition of Michael Kopech. In late July, closer Evan Phillips was struggling at the time of that Kopech acquisition, and much of the bullpen was in a state of flux. Since then, the Dodgers have acquired Kopech, activated Treinen from the injured list (and, this offseason, re-signed him to a two-year deal) and now signed both Scott and Yates in free agency. A late-inning contingent of Scott, Yates, Kopech, Phillips and Treinen is very arguably the most talented quintet of any team in baseball.
It should be noted, however, that Nightengale suggests the Dodgers recently learned of an injury to Kopech that could cost him at least a month of the season. Details on said injury have yet to surface, but that revelation likely played a part in the team’s decision to close an agreement with Yates.
Yates himself isn’t without risk. He’ll turn 38 in March, and he pitched all of 11 major league innings from 2020-22 due to injuries (Tommy John surgery, most notably). The veteran closer returned with a healthy but shaky season for the 2023 Braves, logging a sharp 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings but also walking nearly 15% of his opponents. He improved across the board with the 2024 Rangers, firing 61 2/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a gargantuan 35.9% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate was still noticeably higher than the 8.2% league average but a substantial improvement over his 2023 campaign nonetheless.
Yates ranked second among all free agent relievers in strikeout rate last year, trailing only Aroldis Chapman. He paced all qualified free agent relievers in ERA and ranked seventh or better in SIERA (2.85), K-BB% (24.1) and swinging-strike rate (15.2%). No qualified free agent reliever missed bats within the strike zone as much as Yates; his opponents’ 74.3% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone sat at the top of this year’s free agent class and sat as the third-best mark in all of baseball for pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched, trailing only Josh Hader and Mason Miller.
Dating back to his breakout with the 2018 Padres, Yates has consistently been outstanding when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s pitched 257 innings in that time and boasts a 2.21 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaned on a lethal four-seamer and splitter pairing that’s helped him miss bats in droves while piling up 93 saves and 30 holds in 262 appearances on the mound.
The Dodgers are already well into the fourth and final tier of luxury penalization. Any dollars allocated to Yates will come with a 110% tax, as was the case with Scott. RosterResource already projects the team’s luxury tax ledger to sit at a staggering $371MM; the addition of Yates could push their CBT number close to $400MM. The Dodgers were already set to owe around $108MM in overage taxes before the signing of Yates; presuming he gets an eight-figure salary, they’ll very likely owe more than $120MM in taxes alone.
Cubs, Trevor Richards Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Trevor Richards, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. Richards, a client of Apex Baseball, will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.
The 31-year-old Richards has spent the bulk of the past four seasons with the Blue Jays but was traded to the Twins just prior to the 2024 trade deadline. He posted a 4.55 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate and a career-high 12.6% walk rate between Toronto and Minnesota this past season and carries a 4.60 earned run average over the past four seasons.
Richards has posted a combined 29.1% strikeout rate in 266 1/3 innings dating back to 2021, showing a clear ability to miss bats. He’s battled command troubles along the way, however, both in terms of finding the strike zone at all (11.3% walk rate, 29 wild pitches) and in terms of precision when he does put the ball over the plate (1.39 HR/9).
Although Richards is right-handed, he’s been far more effective against lefties than against righties, due in large part to his top secondary offering being a plus changeup. Lefty batters have hit just .220/.315/.371 against Richards in his career, while righties have a more productive .248/.320/.433 slash.
The Cubs have worked to add to their bullpen this offseason but thus far have made primarily marginal acquisitions. Chicago bid aggressively on top closer Tanner Scott — a notable departure from president Jed Hoyer’s aversion to multi-year deals for relievers — but were reportedly the runner-up prior to the Dodgers. The Cubs have signed Caleb Thielbar and acquired Eli Morgan from the Guardians. They’ll both be in the Opening Day bullpen. Other offseason pickups include DFA additions Matt Festa (acquired for cash) and Rob Zastryzny (claimed off waivers). Richards joins a group of non-roster signings also featuring Phil Bickford, Ben Heller and Brooks Kriske.
The Opener: Hall Of Fame, Profar, MLBTR Chat
With the start of Spring Training just weeks away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Hall of Fame voting results:
The results of this year’s Hall of Fame vote will be announced today at 5pm CT. Anyone who receives 75% of the vote or more will join infielder Dick Allen and outfielder Dave Parker as part of the 2025 Hall of Fame class. Headlining this year’s class is outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, who has a chance to become just the second unanimously-elected Hall of Famer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera. Another newcomer to the ballot who has a chance to be elected is southpaw CC Sabathia, while closer Billy Wagner is entering his tenth and final year of eligibility but stands a strong chance of election after garnering 73.8% of the vote last year. Ryan Thibodaux’s BBHOF Tracker records all publicly revealed ballots and estimates that 50% of the total ballots are currently publicly available. If the rest of the votes were to perfectly mirror the publicly revealed ballot, Suzuki, Sabathia, Wagner, and Carlos Beltrán would all be elected this cycle.
2. Will Profar’s market begin to heat up?
The top remaining outfielder on the market, switch-hitting slugger Anthony Santander, signed a five-year deal with the Blue Jays yesterday that guarantees him $92.5MM. Santander coming off the market could have significant implications for final top remaining outfielder on the board, Jurickson Profar. Profar had an excellent platform season with San Diego, slashing .280/.380/.459 in what was by far the all-around best performance of his career, but the All-Star’s inconsistent track record heading into his age-32 season seems to be giving clubs pause in free agency.
That’s led to a quiet market, but with Santander off the board it’s plausible that some of his rumored suitors could shift their focus from one switch-hitting corner outfielder to another. The Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox were all connected to Santander, to varying degrees, and have yet to land an alternative via free agency or trade. Profar has reportedly seeking a three-year deal this winter. A return to the Padres may not be a realistic, as San Diego is facing a major budget crunch and would likely have to clear other salary commitments in order to make room for him.
3. MLBTR Chat Today:
With spring training just a few weeks away, we’re nearing the point where the baseball offseason starts to give way to preseason excitement even as major free agents remain unsigned and team needs remain unfulfilled. Whether you have questions about what’s left for your team to do this winter or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 2pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
Blue Jays Sign Anthony Santander
The Blue Jays finally have a big splash, plucking a slugger from a division rival. The Jays officially announced the signing of star outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $92.5MM, though heavy deferrals drop the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, the contract reportedly comes with an average annual value around $14MM — suggesting MLB calculates the net present value closer to $70MM. Santander can opt out after the third year, though the club will have the ability to override that by picking up an option for 2030. That has a base value of $15MM and contains a $5MM buyout.
The option and various escalators could tack on another $17.5MM over that sixth season. The deal is frontloaded and contains upwards of $35MM in deferrals, which can push beyond $50MM depending on the opt-out/option result. Toronto designated lefty Brandon Eisert for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.
Santander, 30, has established himself as one of the better power bats in the league in recent years. That included a huge 44-homer tally in 2024. That was his personal best but it was also his sixth straight season in double digits and third straight with at least 28 long balls.
Earlier in his career, he undercut that power production somewhat with more tepid results in terms of batting average and drawing walks, though he has been better at drawing free passes over the past three years. From 2019 to 2021, he hit 49 homers in 240 games but only had a 5.2% walk rate. That led to a .252/.295/.474 batting line and 100 wRC+, indicating his strengths and weaknesses evened out to league average production on the whole.
For the 2022 to 2024 seasons, Santander improved his walk rate by a few ticks, finishing between 8.4% and 8.7% in each of those. That’s roughly league average, with all MLB hitters walking at an 8.2% clip last year. He added those walks without sacrificing his power, putting the ball over the wall 105 times, which made for a productive combination. He had a combined line of .244/.317/.478 for those three campaigns, which translated to a 124 wRC+.
Apart from those home runs, Santander’s contributions have been fairly limited. As mentioned, the on-base abilities have been subpar overall, though fairly decent in the past three years. He’s not a burner on the basepaths, having only once stolen more than two bases in a season. His outfield defense has generally been graded as a bit below league average. He has a career tally of -3 Defensive Runs Saved in over 5,000 outfield innings, with Outs Above Average having him at -13.
Though he’s not the most well-rounded player, he’s a strong fit for the Blue Jays for multiple reasons. The club’s offense was actually around league average last year, though with far better on-base ability than power production. As a team, the Jays slashed .241/.313/.389 for a 101 wRC+, tied for 13th in the league. Their 8.4% walk rate was actually one of the better marks, tied for seventh among the 30 MLB clubs. But they only hit 156 home runs, with just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox below them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the team to reach the 20-homer plateau.
On top of that, Santander is a switch-hitter, with the Jays having been more right-leaning in recent years. Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk all project for regular roles next year and each is right-handed. Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Orelvis Martínez are also righties who could earn spots on the team. The Jays do have a few lefties, with Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido among them, though there are question marks there. Varsho and Giménez have been more glove-first players while Wagner and Loperfido are still lacking in big league experience. Santander’s splits have been fairly close to neutral in his career. He has hit .252/.320/.467 for a 116 wRC+ against lefties, .243/.302/.470 for a 111 wRC+ against righties.
The defensive hit from rostering Santander is also perhaps not a huge deal for Toronto. The Jays, as a team, led the league with 102 DRS last year. Their 26 OAA tally was fourth in the league. Sacrificing a bit of defensive value for the big power bat they need is a sensible tradeoff for them. They also don’t have a regular designated hitter and can perhaps keep Santander in that slot with some regularity. Justin Turner took most of the club’s DH plate appearances in 2024 before being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.
Beyond the on-field fit, the Jays have clearly been looking for a big offseason W for quite some time. The past year-plus has seen them make strong pursuits of marquee players, such as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, but with the Jays coming up just short in all of those.
After missing on Ohtani last winter, the Jays pivoted to modest moves, re-signing Kevin Kiermaier as well as adding Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodríguez. No one in that group got a guarantee larger than $32MM. The 2024 season then went on to be a massive disappointment, with the Jays engineering a midseason selloff and finishing at 74-88. They seemed to come into this winter looking to mollify a disgruntled fan base but the near misses on Soto, Sasaki, Fried and Burnes only appeared to make things worse. Whether Santander is a true star is subjective, though this signing will be Toronto’s biggest since they signed Kevin Gausman three years ago.
One silver lining of the 2024 season falling apart for the Jays was that their midseason selling dipped them below the competitive balance tax, which lowered their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That is the case here, as the Orioles extended a QO to Santander, which he naturally rejected. Had the Jays paid the tax in 2024, they would have forfeited $1MM of international bonus pool space by signing Santander, in addition to surrendering their second- and fifth-best picks in the draft. By ducking under the tax, the penalty is just $500K of 2026 pool space and only their second-best pick. Since Santander is guaranteed more than $50MM on this deal, the O’s will receive a compensation pick after the first round of this summer’s draft.
Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Santander could secure a four-year, $80MM pact. He seemed to have plenty of interest, with the Jays connected to him early on. Clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Angels were also rumored to be interested at various times. Santander and his reps reportedly tried to parlay that interest into a five-year deal and/or a $100MM guarantee in December, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. But he lingered unsigned into the new year and reportedly had some openness to considering a shorter pact.
In the end, he has gotten his five years, though at a lesser average annual value than he was seeking. The sticker price of $92.5MM over five years leads to an $18.5MM AAV, but the deferrals reduce that by a decent amount. The opt-out gives him a chance at some more future earnings, though the Jays could pick up the option and effectively make it $110MM over six years.
Using the pre-deferral $18.5MM AAV, RosterResource projects the club for a $237MM payroll and $263MM CBT calculation for this year. The club opened with a payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so they’re already beyond that. President Mark Shapiro previously suggested that he didn’t expect the club’s spending to drastically change compared to last year, perhaps suggesting there’s not much room left in the budget now. Though Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests that signing Pete Alonso is still a possibility for the Jays even after getting Santander, seemingly indicating otherwise. The club also reportedly has some interest in starting pitching upgrades and has been working to bolster the bullpen all winter. The CBT number is already beyond this year’s $261MM second tier, though the club will be a “first-time” payor on account of ducking under last year.
Perhaps the Jays will make some more additions, such as bringing in Alonso. Such a move would force him and Guerrero to share first base and the DH slot, thus pushing Santander into being an everyday outfielder. If that comes to pass, he would surely be in one corner with Springer in the other. Varsho will be the club’s regular center fielder once he’s healthy. Guys like Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Jonatan Clase and Alan Roden will either be options for depth roles or bench jobs. If Santander is able to serve as the DH more regularly, that could perhaps open more outfield playing time for those others.
For the clubs that missed on Santander, the outfield market is fairly thinned out. In addition to Santander, guys like Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Michael Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board. Jurickson Profar now stands alone as the top unsigned option, so perhaps his market will now pick up. Guys like Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha and others are also available.
Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that Santander and the Jays were in agreement, pending a physical. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet later reported that the physical was complete. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the five-year length, the opt-out/club option override, the signing bonus, the $92.5MM guarantee and the possibility to get to $110MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the opt-out is after 2027. Nicholson-Smith reported the frontloaded nature, as well as the approximate $14MM CBT value. Alexander reported that more than $35MM was deferred.
