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The Opener: NLCS, Lux, Rizzo, MLBTR Chat

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As the Yankees and Guardians head to Cleveland with New York up 2-0, here are a few things to watch for today:

1. NLCS Game 3:

The Dodgers and Mets left L.A. with the NLCS all tied up, and tonight they’ll take the field in Queens to continue the series. The Dodgers will send right-hander Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound in hopes of stronger results after the righty was lit up for six runs in five innings while striking out just one against the Padres in his most recent postseason start. The Mets will counter with right-hander Luis Severino (3.91 ERA in 31 starts) on the heels of a quality start by the righty in the NLDS where he struck out seven Phillies over six innings while surrendering three runs. The matchup between the two hurlers is scheduled to start at 8:08pm local time this evening.

2. Lux day-to-day?

Headed into tonight’s game, one question facing the Dodgers is the availability of second baseman Gavin Lux. As noted by MLB.com, Lux was out of the starting lineup in Game 2, replaced by Enrique Hernandez at second base. The move to not start Lux came on the heels of the 26-year-old being removed from Game 1 due to hip tightness. While manager Dave Roberts indicated prior to the game that Lux would be available off the bench, he ultimately did not make an appearance in Game 2. Following a day off and with a right-handed starter on the mound, will Lux be healthy enough to take the field? While the infielder’s 100 wRC+ during the regular season doesn’t stand out, Lux had a huge finish to the year, hitting .304/.390/.508 in 210 plate appearances after the All-Star break, and he went 5-for-18 with a homer and a walk during the NLDS against San Diego.

3. Rizzo day-to-day:

Coming off a second consecutive win against the Guardians in the ALCS, one focus for the Yankees on their day off will be monitoring the status of veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo was unavailable for the ALDS but returned to the roster for the championship series to play through two fractured fingers on his right hand. The 35-year-old has done quite well for himself on the field so far, going 3-for-7 with a walk and a double, but Brendan Kuty of The Athletic noted before yesterday’s game that Rizzo’s availability is truly day-to-day after he was pulled from Game 1 of the series early and entered the day of Game 2 with his availability uncertain. Rizzo managed to play the full game yesterday, however, and with a day off today there’s certainly reason for optimism that he’ll be able to remain in the club’s lineup as the series heads to Cleveland tomorrow.

4. MLBTR Chat today:

MLBTR’s Steve Adams wasn’t able to host his usual Tuesday chat with readers this week, so it’ll take place this afternoon instead. If you have a question about free agency, your favorite team’s offseason direction, potential winter trades, the ongoing postseason, etc. — you can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live at 3pm CT or read the transcript after the chat has been completed.

Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2026

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The Phillies expressed their continued confidence in manager Rob Thomson and his coaching staff today, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski revealing that Thomson has been extended through the 2026 season and his full staff will return in 2025 (per reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Thomson’s previous contract ran through the 2025 campaign, so it would have left him in lame duck limbo entering next season. As for the rest of the coaches, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Phillies were holding “evaluation meetings” in which they would decide whether or not to make any changes to the coaching staff. Evidently, the team’s top decision makers came away from those meetings feeling good about the group of coaches that has led the club to three consecutive postseason appearances.

Thomson took over as the Phillies’ manager partway through the 2022 season, replacing his long-time boss Joe Girardi. A baseball lifer, Thomson had no big league managerial experience at the time, but he had been a major league coach for the Yankees and Phillies since 2004 and a minor league coach and manager (and briefly a front office executive) since 1988. Over parts of three seasons at the helm in Philadelphia, he has led the team to a 250-185 (.575) record, two Wild Card berths, one NL East division title, and one NL pennant. The Phillies have also gone 20-14 in the playoffs under his leadership.

While this year’s postseason run ended much sooner than the Phillies and their fans might have anticipated, there was little reason to think a change was in order atop the dugout steps. That being said, it’s noteworthy that Thomson has now received one-year extensions in back-to-back offseasons. Clearly, the organization doesn’t want him managing as a lame duck, but at the same time, they have been hesitant to give him a long-term deal.

Slightly more surprising than Thomson’s extension is the fact that his full coaching staff will remain intact next season. After all, it’s quite common for a coach or two to get the scapegoat treatment after a season ends in disappointment. However, it’s important to remember how well the Phillies played over the 162-game regular season and not just their poor performance in the NLDS. They were above-average in just about every aspect of the game, including hitting, baserunning, pitching, and fielding. That’s not to say there’s no room for improvement, but Dombrowski appears to be sticking with an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. That approach worked well this past season, in which the Phillies ran it back with nearly the exact same roster and coaching staff they had the year before and managed to improve by five games.

The Phillies coaching staff includes pitching coach Caleb Cotham, assistant pitching coach/director of pitching development Brian Kaplan, hitting coach Kevin Long, bench coach Mike Calitri, third base coach Dusty Wathan, first base/outfield/baserunning coach Paco Figueroa, and infield coach Bobby Dickerson, among others. Interestingly, all seven of those coaches joined the staff before Thomson took over as skipper. Managers often like to put together their own group of coaches, but Thomson seems happy working alongside the staff he inherited.

Eight Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.

Catchers

Infielders

Pitchers

Phillies Notes: Realmuto, Outfield, Thomson

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke to reporters (including Matt Gelb of The Atheltic) during his end-of-season press conference today regarding the club’s plans headed into 2025 after a disappointing end to their season that saw them knocked out of the NLDS by the division rival Mets in four games. With the club’s entire lineup and starting rotation under team control for 2025, at first glance it may seem as though the Phillies don’t have many obvious places where they can improve. That won’t stop the club’s front office from looking for upgrades, however, as Gelb relays comments from Dombrowski about being “open-minded” and “exploring” possibilities when other teams inevitably come calling this winter.

That could mean making changes to the players on the roster, of course, but one possible change Dombrowski highlighted could come internally: less of J.T. Realmuto behind the plate. The 33-year-old veteran has spent the past six seasons in Philadelphia and is entering the final year of his contract with the club in 2025. The three-time All-Star finished in the top seven of NL MVP voting as recently as 2022 and has been an above average hitter in every season he’s spent with the Phillies, but also endured one of the worst seasons of his career in 2024.

The veteran backstop missed just over a month after undergoing knee surgery in June, and while he posted a solid .266/.322/.429 (109 wRC+) slash line in the 99 games he did play, he did so with lackluster defensive numbers behind the plate that stand in sharp contrast to the reputation he earned as one of the game’s elite defensive catchers earlier in his career. Realmuto’s blocking and framing were both well below average per Statcast, and Fangraphs’s Defense metric rated him as just the tenth most valuable defender of 16 catchers with at least 400 plate appearances this year. Given Realmuto’s waning defensive value behind the plate and the possibility that more rest could help him stay healthy and productive, it’s not entirely a surprise that the club would consider broaching the possibility of Realmuto taking on less of the team’s catching duties with the veteran.

With that being said, however, the possibility of Realmuto playing less frequently behind the plate raises questions about whether he’ll spent the extra time playing elsewhere in the lineup or on the bench. It’s hardly unheard of for even the most well-regarded veteran catchers to start spending more time at DH or first base as they enter their mid-30’s, with Royals veteran Salvador Perez (who played just 91 of his 158 games in 2024 at catcher) standing out as a prime example. That may be easier said than done for the Phillies, though, as the club currently has Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber installed at first base and DH on a regular basis. Both sluggers have experience in the outfield and could theoretically play left field on occasion to free up time away from catcher for Realmuto, though it’s unclear if the Phillies are willing to move either star out of their usual position to accommodate Realmuto.

Finding playing time away from catcher for Realmuto could be even more complicated depending on how the club looks to overhaul its outfield mix. Dombrowski indicated that both Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos figure to feature prominently in their outfield mix next year, but he did not offer those same guarantees to Johan Rojas after a disappointing season where he posted a lackluster 68 wRC+ in 363 trips to the plate. If the club plans to move Rojas into something closer to a fourth outfielder role, they’d have the ability to make an addition in either left or center field, depending on their willingness to move Marsh back to center on a regular basis after he started just 35 games at the position in 2024.

While a pursuit of superstar outfielder and top free agent Juan Soto would be a shock for a Phillies club that already has lots of money tied up in a number of star players, the coming outfield class is deep in interesting bats such as Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and (depending on his player option decision) Cody Bellinger who could slide into the club’s outfield mix to improve the offense. Of course, any addition to the outfield mix would only serve to further limit the club’s flexibility in playing Realmuto away from the catcher position, but that could be well worth it if it meant upgrading the offense overall.

As the Phillies ponder where to make changes this winter, one place that won’t be happening is the dugout. Dombrowski revealed earlier today that manager Rob Thomson has been extended through the end of the 2026 season, adding an additional year to a contract that otherwise would have left the skipper a lame duck headed into next season. When discussing his newest contract with reporters (including Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) Thomson made it clear that he expects Philadelphia to be the final stop in his lengthy coaching career. Thomson famously planned to retire following the 2022 season when he was still bench coach of the Phillies, but plans changed when the club fired then-manager Joe Girardi, promoted Thomson to the top job, and the club went on an improbable run to the World Series.

In all, the Phillies have posted a strong 250-185 record under Thomson’s management in the regular season, to go with a solid 20-11 record in postseason games after the club made it to the playoffs in all three years he’s been at the helm. In spite of all that success, however, the 61-year-old hardly seems interested in committing to a lengthy tenure in the Phillies dugout as March relays that Thomson plans to take things year-by-year after his latest contract expires following the 2026 season. That’s hardly an unheard of arrangement for veteran managers, with Rockies skipper Bud Black standing out as a notable current example of a manager who has taken a number of one-year extensions rather than work out a longer-term arrangement, including one just last week.

Colton Cowser Undergoes Surgery On Fractured Hand

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The Orioles announced today that outfielder Colton Cowser underwent successful surgery to repair his fractured left hand. Cowser, who the O’s announced is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2025, was diagnosed with the fracture shortly after the Orioles were eliminated from the playoffs at the hands of the Royals. In the final game of Baltimore’s season, Cowser swung at an up-and-in pitch from Kansas City southpaw Angel Zerpa and was called out on strikes despite being struck in the left hand by the pitch.

The news is somewhat surprising, as there were no immediate indications that Cowser’s fracture would require surgery in the aftermath of the injury. All the same, the Orioles are surely relieved that the 24-year-old figures to avoid missing the early part of next year due to the issue after a banner year in 2024. The rookie’s first full season in the majors was very impressive, as he slashed a solid .242/.321/.447 with a wRC+ of 120, 24 homers, and nine steals.

That strong offensive performance combined with solid glove work in the outfielder, where he split time between all three outfield spots. That proved to be enough to not only cement Cowser’s role as the Orioles’ everyday left fielder but also allowed him to lead AL rookies in fWAR with a 4.0 figure that was only eclipsed by Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill and Pirates righty Paul Skenes among MLB rookies this year. In terms of left fielder’s Cowser’s performance tied with Tigers outfielder Riley Greene for the fifth-most fWAR in the majors, trailing only Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Jurickson Profar and Steven Kwan.

Looking ahead to 2025, Cowser’s excellent performance in the outfield this year figures to make him a key cog in the Baltimore lineup next season, particularly given the impending free agency of right fielder Anthony Santander next month. With Santander seemingly unlikely to return next year, the Orioles figure to rely more heavily on the production of Cowser and fellow youngster Heston Kjerstad in the outfield alongside Cedric Mullins next year, though infield prospect Coby Mayo’s name has also been floated as a potential outfield option for the club next year. Of course, even an outfield mix that features strong seasons from both Kjerstad and Mayo would surely miss the production offered by Santander, who slugged a career-best 44 homers in 2024.

Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the Orioles explored adding a veteran bat to their outfield mix in order to help safeguard against injury or potential struggles from the club’s young outfielders. While the Orioles figure to primarily focus on bolstering a pitching staff that figures to lose Corbin Burnes to free agency and be without key pieces such as Kyle Bradish in the early part of next year, there should be a number of affordable veteran bats available such as Michael Conforto or Mark Canha who could be added without a significant financial burden if the club wants to add depth to its outfield mix.

Alex Cobb Replaced By Ben Lively On Guardians’ ALCS Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster change for the Guardians, with right-hander Alex Cobb replaced by fellow righty Ben Lively. MLB didn’t announce the specific nature of Cobb’s injury but the Guards announced it as an acute left low back strain. Per MLB playoff roster rules, a player removed with an injury is not eligible to return during that series nor in the subsequent series. That means that Cobb won’t be available for the World Series if Cleveland makes it, so his season is now over.

It’s an unfortunate development both for Cobb and the Guardians. The club acquired him prior to the deadline a few months ago in the hopes of bolstering their rotation, which had been slowed down both by injuries and underperformance. But Cobb had been having his own injury issues prior to the trade and struggled to stay healthy after it, which will impact his earning power as he heads into free agency this winter.

Cobb, 37, has a lengthy track record that includes a 3.84 earned run average in 233 starts dating back to his 2011 debut. He signed a two-year deal with the Giants for the 2022 and 2023 seasons and pitched rather well. He made 28 starts in each of those seasons, with his ERA coming in a bit below 4.00 in each of them. He tossed 301 innings in those two years with a 3.80 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 59.4% ground ball rate.

He underwent hip surgery in October of 2023 with a six-month recovery estimate but the Giants still felt good enough about his prognosis to exercise a $10MM club option for the 2024 season. The news of his recovery was fairly positive throughout the winter and it seemed there was a chance that he could be pitching in the majors early in 2024, but he got transferred to the 60-day injured list in mid-April after he was slowed by shoulder inflammation. Even at that point, the Giants were hoping for a late-May return but his shoulder discomfort lingered.

He was still on the IL as the trade deadline was approaching but he was rehabbing at the time and the Guardians decided to take a shot on him, sending minor league left-hander Jacob Bresnahan and a player to be named later (later announced as minor league infielder Nate Furman) to San Francisco. The Guards had lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery while hurlers like Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco had struggled badly. Despite the challenges in the rotation, the Cleveland bullpen was the best in baseball in 2024, helping them lead the American League Central for most of the way.

Cobb made his debut for the Guards on August 9 but only made two starts before going back on the IL, this time due to a fractured nail on his right hand. He was reinstated from the IL and made another start for Cleveland in early September but returned to the IL after that, this time due to blisters on his pitching hand.

Though he missed the final few weeks of the season, the Guards added Cobb to their roster for the ALDS against the Tigers. He started the third game of that series but was pulled after three innings, having thrown 41 pitches while allowing two earned runs. He then started the first game of the ALCS against the Yankees last night, tossing 65 pitches but without making it out of the third inning and with three earned runs on his ledger.

Now it seems this back injury will add to a very frustrating season for the veteran, as it’s evidently serious enough that they felt compelled to remove him. As mentioned, he won’t be eligible to return in the ALCS. If they make it to the World Series, he won’t be an option there either.

He’ll be heading into free agency having just turned 37 years old and without much of a platform season. Around the hip recovery, the shoulder problems, the hand issues and now this back strain, he only made the three regular season starts and two more in the postseason, logging a total of 22 innings.

For the Guardians, they will have to try to stay alive with their pitching depth thinned out even further. Without Cobb, they have Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd and Gavin Williams as their top three starters, with those three able to start the next three contests. By game five, scheduled for Saturday, they may have to consider a bullpen game, with guys like Joey Cantillo or Lively possibilities for bulk innings.

Lively, 32, had a solid year for the Guards in terms of surface-level results but less in terms of underlying numbers. He made 29 starts and logged 159 innings with a 3.81 ERA, but his 18.7% strikeout rate and 41.9% ground ball rate were both subpar. He did keep his walks down to a 7.8% clip and his 6.5% barrel rate was considered by Statcast to be in the 73rd percentile, but his 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest his ERA could be at least slightly misleading. Game two of the ALCS kicks off in the Bronx tonight at 7:38pm local time.

Bryan Price Steps Down As Giants Pitching Coach

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Bryan Price is stepping down from his role as the Giants’ pitching coach, The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports.

From 2001-2013, Price worked as a pitching coach for the Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Reds. He took over as the Reds’ manager for the 2014 season and held that position until April 2018, when he was fired following a disastrous start to the season. He briefly returned to coaching after that, serving as the Phillies’ pitching coach for one year, before announcing his retirement from coaching following the 2020 season. However, he worked as a senior advisor to the Padres’ coaching staff from 2022 to ’23, and when long-time friend Bob Melvin moved from the Padres to the Giants, he convinced Price to come out of retirement and join him in the Bay Area.

The veteran coach explained to Baggarly that his return to the dugout was always meant to be a short-term arrangement. To that point, the Giants offered him a two-year contract last winter, but he requested a one-year deal. Price was born in San Francisco and couldn’t refuse the offer to coach for the team he grew up supporting.

It certainly wasn’t an easy season for Price, who had to deal with Blake Snell’s early-season injury woes, closer Camilo Doval’s unforeseen struggles, and Jordan Hicks’s difficult transition from reliever to starter to reliever again, among other problems. Still, the season wasn’t without its bright spots, most notably Ryan Walker’s breakout as a relief stud and Snell’s resurgence in the second half of. All things considered, the Giants’ pitching staff was slightly worse in 2024 than it was the year before – their ERA, FIP, and xFIP were all closer to league average – despite several notable additions in Snell, Hicks, and Robbie Ray. That’s not to say Price is to blame for all (or even most) of what went wrong, but it’s not as if Giants fans were begging him to stick around for another year.

It’s unclear if this is a proper and complete retirement for Price, or if he still plans to work in an advisory capacity with the Giants or another club. As for his replacement, Baggarly notes that Ryan Vogelsong, currently a roving minor-league instructor in the organization, is expected to have “an instrumental voice in the organizational pitching hierarchy.” That could mean helping to select Price’s replacement or filling the role himself. Baggarly also mentions that assistant pitching coach J.P. Martinez and bullpen coach Garvin Alston are expected to return in 2025; if the Giants are considering internal candidates, either of them could be up for the job. Finally, Baggarly names Javier López, who is currently working as a color commentator on the Giants’ broadcast team. While Baggarly does not necessarily suggest the 14-year MLB veteran is a candidate for the pitching coach position, he writes that López could one day “transition into a role” in the front office or on the coaching staff.

Orioles Notes: Angelos, McCann, Asche

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John Angelos was the chairman of the Orioles from 2020, when he formally took over from his father, Peter, until earlier this year, when his family sold the club to new owner David Rubenstein. Initially, Angelos was expected to remain with the club in a senior adviser role, but it seems as if that arrangement didn’t last long. According to Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, Angelos is no longer connected to the team in any capacity after selling his remaining shares to Rubenstein’s ownership group this past August.

Angelos was hardly popular within the Orioles fanbase. The team’s payroll shrunk dramatically under his leadership, and he often complained about the lack of financial resources available to smaller-market organizations. In 2023, he told The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner that the only way to keep all the team’s young stars would be to raise ticket prices “dramatically.” Yet, he reneged on his promise to show reporters the complete “financials of the Orioles” (per the Associated Press). With Rubenstein’s takeover came the hope that the O’s would start spending significantly more on player payroll, and the news that Angelos is no longer exerting any influence over the team’s decisions can only increase that optimism. Baltimore’s payroll was significantly higher in 2024, though still well below league average. Earlier this month, general manager Mike Elias said he was “pretty confident” the payroll will continue to increase in 2025.

One task the Orioles will face this offseason (though hardly their most expensive decision) will be re-signing or replacing backup catcher James McCann. On that subject, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports recently pointed out that McCann initially had the O’s on his five-team no-trade list back when he signed a four-year, $40.6MM deal with the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason. Needless to say, he ended up approving a trade to the Orioles anyway. What’s more, including the Orioles on his five-team no-trade list doesn’t necessarily mean McCann was opposed to playing in Baltimore. At the time he signed that deal, the Orioles were one of the basement-dwellers of the American League. That’s no longer the case. And it bears repeating that he ultimately accepted the trade that sent him to the Orioles – after they proved they were opening their window of contention with an 83-win season in 2022. Still, it’s a tidbit of information worth keeping in mind as the veteran backstop approaches free agency. McCann is well-liked by his Orioles teammates and has gotten plenty of playing time over the past two years as a backup for Adley Rutschman.

In one more note of interest, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com discussed the Orioles coaching staff today, specifically the hitting coach vacancy left behind after co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller was let go and fellow co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte returned to the Twins. Dubroff pointed out that Cody Asche, technically the team’s offensive strategy coach, also functioned as a third hitting coach for the club. It’s unclear if Asche will change roles next season, but Dubroff does mention that Asche is “respected in the clubhouse.” He has been with the organization since 2022, first as a minor league hitting coordinator before joining the big league staff for the 2023 campaign. Previously, he was a minor league hitting coach in the Phillies organization. At 34 years old, he is still young for a big league coach, but he is certainly a name to keep in mind as the Orioles look to find their next hitting guru.

The Opener: ALCS, Phillies, Managerial Searches

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As the 2024 postseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1: ALCS Game 2:

The Yankees took Game 1 of the ALCS last night thanks to a gem from left-hander Carlos Rodon that saw him strike out nine Guardians across six innings of one-run ball. Now, Cleveland will look to rebound with right-hander Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA in 31 starts) on the mound. It’ll be the third start of the postseason for Bibee, who already posted 8 2/3 innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts and three walks against the Tigers in the ALDS. The Yankees will turn to ace Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA in 17 starts) as they look to keep their momentum rolling. Cole has a lengthy and accomplished postseason resume with a 2.94 ERA across 19 playoff starts, and his performance in the ALDS against the Royals mostly matched his reputation: he surrendered five runs (four earned) in 12 innings of work while striking out eight batters.

2: Phillies end-of-season presser:

After a frustrating defeat at the hands of the Mets in the NLDS, the Phillies have entered the offseason earlier than they were hoping. The club will formally kick off its offseason later today with an end-of-season press conference where both president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson are expected to be available to field questions from the media. The Phillies could be in for a relatively quiet offseason by their standards with their entire starting rotation and lineup under team control for 2025, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if the club looked to upgrade in the outfield or address a bullpen that could lose Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez to free agency next month.

3. Managerial searches underway

While winning teams spend October focused primarily on the playoff push, teams that missed the postseason often spend the month focusing on personnel changes in the dugout and front office. This winter, the two most high-profile jobs up for grabs are managerial gigs in Miami and on the south side of Chicago. The rumor mill as been relatively quiet regarding both the Marlins’ and White Sox’ plans so far, though a handful of candidates have seen their names floated already including Angels manager Phil Nevin for the job in Chicago and current bench coach Luis Urueta for the Marlins gig. Whoever is ultimately hired to fill those vacancies will have their work cut out for them as the White Sox look to bounce back from the worst season in modern MLB history and the Marlins plan to rebuild their entire coaching staff from the ground up.

Royals Notes: Lineup Needs, Outfield, Wacha, Frazier

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Royals brass held their end-of-season press conference today, with general manager J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro fielding questions from MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (two links) and other reporters about the club’s successful 2024 campaign and some of their plans for the coming offseason.

While Picollo described the Royals’ offense as “acceptable” overall, the team is looking for bookends around the powerful 2-3-4 lineup combination of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez.  The Royals relied heavily on that trio for most of their offense, and thus finding a more consistent leadoff hitter and no. 5 hitter are the first steps in increasing production.

Picollo noted that impending free agent Tommy Pham did a good job in stabilizing the leadoff spot after Pham was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals at the end of August.  In general, however, “that leadoff spot, we were circulating guys all year long, trying to find the right person….Every lineup, and the better lineups that we faced, they’re deep,” Picollo said.  “The more you can push guys down, the better our lineup will be. You start with a leadoff man, and then you try to find somebody in the middle of the lineup, as well.  The deeper you get, the more explosive you can be as an offense.”

Kansas City batters had a collective .306 on-base percentage this season, ranking 19th of 30 teams.  Witt’s .389 OBP did a lot of the heavy lifting on that cumulative total, as Yuli Gurriel (in only 65 plate appearances) ranked second on the team with a .338 OBP, followed by Perez at .330.  Maikel Garcia had the majority of at-bats out of the leadoff spot and his strong third base defense kept him in the lineup, but he hit only .231/.281/.332 over 626 PA.  Garcia’s 69 wRC+ was the lowest of any qualified hitter in baseball this season.

Despite Garcia’s lack of production, Picollo said Garcia and left fielder MJ Melendez (who also struggled) will be counted to improve at the plate as they head into their fourth Major League campaigns.  However, Picollo singled out the outfield as a natural area where the Royals could add some power and more offense in general, as only the Pirates and White Sox got less production from their outfielders in 2024 than the 79 wRC+ posted by Kansas City’s outfield mix.

“Generally speaking, when you’re looking at left field, right field, that’s where you’re thinking about power guys,” Picollo said.  “And we know this ballpark doesn’t lend itself to homers, but it does lend itself to slug.  So we’ve got to be more productive there.  And that’s where being optimistic about some of the guys that we have and looking at the experience they had, I think that’s fine.”

Right field is the most logical target area if Hunter Renfroe declines his $7.5MM player option for 2025, though Picollo said he hadn’t yet spoken to Renfroe about his upcoming decision.  Renfroe can take a $1MM buyout and return to free agency, but it probably seems likelier than Renfroe will take the larger $7.5MM payday after a sub-replacement season.  Renfroe had a -0.1 fWAR over 120 games with Kansas City, hitting .229/.297/.392 with 15 home runs, and he sandwiched a red-hot stretch in June and July between ice-cold performances in the first two and final two months of the regular season.

Kyle Isbel was also a below-average hitter but at least played some solid defense in center field, so he might have the most job security of all Royals outfielders heading into 2025.  If K.C. did indeed pick up a new corner outfielder or two, Renfroe, Melendez, Dairon Blanco, and Nelson Velazquez could all be vying for part-time or bench duty, or the Royals could look to move any to create roster space.

On the pitching end, Michael Wacha will have to decide on either exercising or declining his $16MM player option for the 2025 season.  Wacha’s excellent changeup powered his 3.35 ERA over 166 2/3 innings in his first season with the Royals, and induced a ton of soft contact while posting an above-average 6.6% walk rate.  Though his lack of strikeouts and velocity will always limit his market to some extent, Wacha has now posted very solid results in each of the last three seasons, and should certainly find a multi-year pact again on the open market this year.

Even if the likelihood is that Wacha does pass on his option, Picollo said “there’s no question we’d like to have him back.  How we go about that, I’m not sure just yet….He’s going to have opportunities with other clubs.  So we’ll work on that.”

The Royals aim to add more pitching with or without Wacha still in the rotation, though obviously it will be a more glaring need if Wacha does head elsewhere.  Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Brady Singer still combine for a nice top three and Alec Marsh earned himself a rotation job, so on paper Kansas City would have plenty of internal candidates to compete for just one open starting job.  But as Picollo noted, “we were remarkably healthy this year,” so the club expects to need more pitching in the likely even that the Royals aren’t as lucky in avoiding the injury bug.

As to how much the Royals will have to spend for any upgrade, Picollo was naturally unspecific on the topic, but he felt owner John Sherman would have as much “flexibility” with the payroll as last winter.  “I would suspect it would be very similar,” the GM said.  “Not necessarily in, ’We’re going to spend $100 million,’ but more so his flexibility, him being open-minded to what our team’s needs are.”

RosterResource estimates that the Royals finished the year with a payroll of slightly more than $113.5MM, which represents the franchise’s biggest spend since its $122.2MM payroll on Opening Day 2018.  An increase in attendance and two playoff games should boost revenue, but the Royals are also one of the teams whose broadcast deals with Diamond Sports Group will be severed as part of DSG’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings.

It remains to be seen if the Royals could work out a new deal with DSG/Bally Sports for the 2025 season or if the team might seek out another broadcast partner, or pursue an agreement with Major League Baseball itself to broadcast games (as six other clubs have done).  While obviously a lot of uncertainty exists here, it should be noted that the Royals’ previous deal with Bally was already up after the 2025 season, and the team still went ahead and had a relatively big spending splurge last winter even with the looming questions about its broadcast future.

In some injury updates, Hunter Harvey, James McArthur, and Chris Stratton should all be ready for the start of Spring Training after finishing the season on the injured list.  Some health uncertainty awaits Adam Frazier, who will be undergoing some type of procedure on his right thumb this week.

Frazier had a minimal 10-day IL stint in late June/early July due to a sprain in that same thumb, and an injury could explain his rough hitting numbers, as the veteran batted only .202/.282/.294 in 294 PA.  Kansas City is sure to decline its end of an $8.5MM mutual option on Frazier for 2025, and he’ll be bought out for $2.5MM.  Between his down year and perhaps this surgery impacting his readiness, Frazier may have to settle for a minor league pact in free agency.

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