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2019 Amateur Draft Pool Allocations

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With less than two months until the 2019 amateur draft, analysis of this year’s class is hitting full stride. Baseball America just produced its ranking of 300 prospects; Fangraphs has updated its prospect board; ESPN.com’s Keith Law released rankings not long ago (Insider link).

[RELATED: 2019-20 International Bonus Pools]

As always, spending power is key. Jim Callis of MLB.com recently broke down all the key financial info for this year’s festivities. While the outcome of the still-pending free agencies of Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel could still shift things around, the situation is mostly set at this point. (Click to find out what selections teams would lose by signing one of those players before the draft and what picks their former teams could stand to gain.)

More than any team in the league, the Diamondbacks are in a power position in the draft. Though they won’t pick until the 16th slot, the club has accumulated a variety of lofty selections via compensation picks for A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin as well as the acquisition of a Competitive Balance pick in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Arizona has over $2MM more to work with than any other club in the Majors.

You can find the slot bonus allocation and pick basis (compensation, competitive balance, etc) for every single selection in the draft at the above BA link. We’ll just run through the total bonus pools for every team here:

  • Diamondbacks: $16,093,700
  • Orioles: $13,821,300
  • Royals: $13,108,000
  • Marlins: $13,045,000
  • White Sox: $11,565,500
  • Braves: $11,532,200
  • Rangers: $11,023,100
  • Padres: $10,758,900
  • Tigers: $10,402,500
  • Rays: $10,333,800
  • Pirates: $9,944,000
  • Twins: $9,905,800
  • Reds: $9,528,600
  • Giants: $8,714,500
  • Blue Jays: $8,463,300
  • Mets: $8,224,600
  • Dodgers: $8,069,100
  • Angels: $7,608,700
  • Mariners: $7,559,000
  • Yankees: $7,455,300
  • Rockies: $7,092,300
  • Cardinals: $6,903,500
  • Phillies: $6,475,800
  • Indians: $6,148,100
  • Nationals: $5,979,600
  • Cubs: $5,826,900
  • Athletics: $5,605,900
  • Astros: $5,355,100
  • Brewers: $5,148,200
  • Red Sox: $4,788,100

Diamondbacks Reportedly Agree To Sign Ben Taylor

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The Diamondbacks have reportedly agreed to terms on a minor-league deal with right-hander Ben Taylor, according to the Roster Roundup Twitter account (link). Taylor was released recently by the Indians.

Claimed by the Indians last February, Taylor was cut loose after he was knocked around in two innings this spring. The club evidently did not desire to keep him in their system after bumping him from the 40-man roster. Taylor had undergone hip surgery late last season, according to his own Twitter account.

While the results haven’t been there for Taylor in his limited MLB opportunities, he has run up 26 strikeouts against ten walks in 23 1/3 big-league frames. That has come despite an uninspiring 8.4% swinging-strike rate, though Taylor has shown an ability to get Ks in the upper minors. In 70 2/3 total Triple-A frames, he owns a 2.55 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9.

MLB Releases 2019-20 International Bonus Pools

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Major League Baseball has released the bonus pools for each team for the 2019-20 international market, as Baseball America’s Ben Badler provides. There are no longer any carryover spending limitations from the prior international system, so every team is free now to operate without limitation under the new rules — though there is one organization that still faces a notable limitation.

Before we get to the numbers, here’s a quick primer on the specifics of the international free agency system (as adapted from a prior post from MLBTR’s Steve Adams).

  • Hard Cap: Under the prior system, clubs could exceed their spending allocation if they were willing to accept penalties. Now, they face a hard cap.
  • Trades: Teams may trade for up to 75 percent of their originally allotted bonus pool; they are free to trade away all of their pool availability if they so choose. Spending capacity must be traded in increments of $250K — unless it includes the last portion of a team’s pool.
  • Competitive Balance funds: Teams that are eligible for competitive balance picks also receive additional international spending money, with more or less of a boost depending upon whether they are picking in round A ($541,500) or round B ($1,082,900) in a given year.
  • Qualifying Offer penalty: A club that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in the previous season and also signs a free agent who had declined a qualifying offer surrenders $1MM of its international pool in the following period. It’s a $500K pool hit for a club that did not exceed the luxury tax but also did not benefit from revenue sharing. (Thus a signing of Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel could still result in changes to the numbers below.)

Without further ado:

  • Astros: $5,398,300
  • Angels: $5,398,300
  • Athletics: $5,939,800
  • Blue Jays: $5,398,300
  • Braves: $0 (penalty)
  • Brewers: $5,939,800
  • Cardinals: $6,481,200
  • Cubs: $5,398,300
  • Dodgers: $4,821,400
  • Diamondbacks: $6,481,200
  • Giants: $5,398,300
  • Indians: $6,481,200
  • Mariners: $5,398,300
  • Marlins: $5,939,800
  • Mets: $5,398,300
  • Nationals: $4,321,400
  • Orioles: $6,481,200
  • Padres: $6,481,200
  • Phillies: $4,821,400
  • Pirates: $6,481,200
  • Rangers: $5,398,300
  • Rays: $5,939,800
  • Red Sox: $5,398,300
  • Reds: $5,939,800
  • Rockies: $6,481,200
  • Royals: $6,481,200
  • Tigers: $5,398,300
  • Twins: $5,939,800
  • White Sox: $5,398,300
  • Yankees: $5,398,300

 

 

Mariners Reportedly Agree To Deal With Neftali Feliz

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The Mariners have struck a minor-league accord with right-hander Neftali Feliz, according to multiple reports. Dominican journalist Hector Gomez appears to have had the news first, via Twitter.

If indeed the deal is completed, the Seattle organization will add another veteran depth piece. Odds are that Feliz would be asked to open at Triple-A Tacoma, though he may first head to extended spring training to build up arm strength.

Feliz debuted way back in 2009 but is still just thirty years of age. He didn’t appear in the majors last year, the first such season since his arrival on the scene with the Rangers.

Though he once possessed one of the game’s most intriguing arms — and indeed won the 2010 Rookie of the Year Award — Feliz was sidetracked by injuries after trying to move back from the bullpen into the rotation. His has been a journeyman’s experience since wrapping up his time in Texas.

Feliz was able to rack up 53 2/3 innings of 3.52 ERA ball in 2016, running 10.2 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 but also allowing ten long balls. The dinger issues arose again in the ensuing season, with nine balls leaving the yard in his 46 frames with the Brewers and Royals. Feliz finished with a 5.48 ERA and took a minors deal with the D-Backs. He made a dozen starts and 25 relief appearances but managed only a 4.81 ERA with a middling 75:54 K/BB ratio.

Cubs Release Jen-Ho Tseng

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The Cubs announced today that they have released righty Jen-Ho Tseng, as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune was among those to tweet. He had been designated for assignment recently.

Now 24 years of age, Tseng originally signed with the Cubs out of Taiwan in 2013. He has produced good results at times in the minors, but the club obviously did not feel he was likely to provide much at the game’s highest level.

After a strong 2017 showing in the upper minors, Tseng was knocked around last year for a 6.27 ERA in 136 1/3 Triple-A innings. Tseng did manage a reasonably promising combination of 7.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 48.4% groundball rate, and was likely unfortunate to carry only a 59.2% strand rate, but he was also touched for twenty long balls.

Tseng only has eight MLB frames under his belt, over which he has compiled an impressive 11:2 K/BB ratio. But he has also surrendered three home runs and eight earned runs in that brief span. Tseng struggled badly in limited Cactus League action this spring.

Braves Extend Ozzie Albies

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The Braves continued to lock up their core pieces Thursday, announcing a contract extension with second baseman Ozzie Albies that’ll guarantee the 22-year-old a total of $35MM from 2019-25. He’ll earn $1MM apiece in 2019 and 2020, $3MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022, and $7MM annually from 2023 through 2025.

The contract includes a pair of club options reportedly valued at $7MM apiece; the first one comes with a $4MM buyout. If both are exercised, Albies will earn a mere $45MM over the next nine seasons — four of which would have been free-agent years.

Ozzie Albies | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY SportsAlbies was already under control through 2023 but will now join Ronald Acuna Jr. in comprising a core that the Braves can build around beyond that point in time. Acuna’s contract was deemed by many to be bargain, but the Albies deal runs nearly the same length while checking in at just under one third of the total maximum value.

In terms of overall guarantee, Albies topped fellow second baseman Ketel Marte, though he did so only by giving away additional years of control. Historically speaking, there’s little to no precedent for a player this young and of this caliber surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons for a maximum payout under $50MM. While there’s surely something to be said for accepting a first life-changing payday — particularly with arbitration still two years away — Albies was on track to become a free agent upon completion of his age-26 season. For comparison’s sake, Scooter Gennett earned $18MM over this three arb years despite not breaking out until he was in his first arbitration season. Jonathan Schoop, who was non-tendered after his second arbitration season, signed a one-year deal with the Twins and will earn $19.475MM across what would’ve been his three arb seasons.

Setting aside second basemen and merely looking at players who signed extensions with between one and two years of Major League service, Christian Yelich (seven years, $49.57MM), Andrelton Simmons (seven years, $58MM) and Anthony Rizzo (seven years, $41MM) all topped the Albies guarantee handily — and did so more than four years ago. If Albies was dead-set on an extension, a $50MM baseline would have been at least commensurate with market trends — especially considering the multiple options over free-agent seasons. Instead, the deal checks in more along the lines of dated extensions signed by Starling Marte, Jedd Gyorko and Gregory Polanco.

Frankly, this seems like the type of deal that an agent would strongly advise his client not to take. Perhaps Albies simply wanted to take the largest guarantee the Braves were willing to offer; he received just a $350K signing bonus as a prospect, after all, and his career earnings to date may not even total seven figures. From a purely human standpoint, it’s hard for any 22-year-old player without much in the way of career earnings to rebuff $35MM under the guise that he’ll earn more on a year-to-year basis beginning 24 months down the line. Presumably, all of the points made here were spelled out to Albies before he made what amounts to a life-altering decision.

The contract serves as a reminder that the teams hold overwhelming leverage in instances such as this, and the Atlanta organization took full advantage of that reality. It’s nothing short of a coup for the Braves to land Albies for a maximum of $45MM over the next nine years just weeks after Eloy Jimenez signed a deal that can pay him as much as $75MM over eight years before he ever played a single MLB game.

Albies, meanwhile, entered his second full big league campaign in 2019 with a career .268/.317/.453 batting line to go along with 30 homers, 49 doubles, 10 triples and 22 stolen bases (in 26 attempts). He’s off to a fast start thus far, too, having posted a .929 OPS through the season’s first 11 games. Long one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, Albies earned what figures to be the first of multiple All-Star nods last year as part of a season that both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs pegged at 3.8 wins above replacement. Given the output he’s already demonstrated to this point in his career, it seems unfathomable that Albies wouldn’t have taken home at least $10-15MM in arbitration, and the more realistic scenario (as evidenced by Schoop and Gennett) is that he’d have done quite a bit better.

The Braves may very well try to spin the Acuna and Albies extensions as big expenditures that’ll buy some good will with fans after a quiet offseason in which they did not spend at anywhere near the level they implied to fans several months ago. And Braves fans, to be clear, should be thrilled by both deals. However, these types of deals aren’t the type that a team can legitimately claim as alternatives to spending in free agency and in taking on salary via trades; rather, they’re the type of contracts that should empower a team to spend in those arenas, knowing full well that paying market rate for other talent is offset by the overwhelming bargains they’ve secured over a pair of homegrown assets.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported the terms (Twitter links), with Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeting the annual breakdown.

Nationals’ Potential Deal With Bud Norris Falls Through

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The Nationals’ potential agreement with free-agent righty Bud Norris has fallen through, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The organization felt that the 34-year-old veteran was as much as a month away from MLB readiness, and the team’s preference is to find bullpen help that is more immediately available.

Norris was in camp with the Blue Jays on a minor league contract and received a $100K retention bonus to remain in the organization’s minor league ranks beyond the end of Spring Training. However, the two side agreed to a release last week due to what appears to be similar circumstances; Norris reportedly felt ready to join the Jays’ big league club sooner rather than later, but the Toronto organization wanted him to continue building arm strength in extended Spring Training.

With his hopes of signing in D.C. dashed, Norris will remain on the free-agent market as he seeks a different opportunity. With two clubs deeming him unready for near-term MLB action, it seems likely that he’ll need to build up strength somewhere before he ultimately returns to a Major League mound. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported in early April that Norris, who averaged 94.6 mph on his fastball in 2018, was sitting in the 90-91 mph during workouts.

If and when Norris does work up to his previous velocity levels, he should be able to help out the majority of big league bullpens. While his career as a starter took a southward turn in 2016, he’s posted strong results over the past two seasons as a reliever. Dating back to Opening Day 2017, Norris has a 3.91 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also posted a swinging-strike rate north of 12 percent over that two-year span — easily a career best — and last season also set a new highwater mark with a hefty 35.9 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.

Orioles To Select Josh Lucas, Place Richard Bleier On Injured List

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The Orioles have lockers set up for right-hander Josh Lucas and lefty Tanner Scott this morning, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (all Twitter links), indicating that both have been brought up to the Major League roster. Lucas isn’t on the team’s 40-man roster, so his contract will be formally selected prior today’s 12:35 ET starting time. Baltimore already optioned Josh Rogers to Triple-A Norfolk following last night’s game, creating one vacancy on the 25-man roster, and the other will be created by placing lefty Richard Bleier on the injured list.

Lucas, 28, signed a minor league pact with the Orioles back in late November. His experience at the MLB level is limited, though he’s appeared in each of the past two big league seasons: with the Cardinals in 2017 and the Athletics in 2018. He’s tallied just 21 2/3 frames in that time, working to a 5.40 ERA with a 21-to-13 K/BB ratio and a promising 54.8 percent ground-ball rate.

Lucas doesn’t throw particularly hard, sitting 91-92 mph with his fastball, but he’s induced a solid 11.4 percent swinging-strike rate and a strong 33.8 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. He’ll come to the O’s with a nice Triple-A track record, having logged a 3.32 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and above-average ground-ball tendencies.

Bleier, despite a lack of missed bats, was the Orioles’ most effective reliever from 2017-18. Through 4 1/3 innings this season, though, he’s already allowed as many runs (seven) as he did through 32 2/3 frames last year. Bleier’s 2019 season was cut short by a lat tear that required surgery, and it’s possible that he’s still dealing with some lingering effects from that procedure.

Prior to Opening Day, he’s totaled 119 innings in the Majors between the Yankees and O’s, pitching to an immaculate 1.97 ERA despite averaging 4.1 K/9. Bleier’s pristine control (1.6 BB/9) and knack for avoiding hard contact have helped him thrive to this point in his big league career. If he can get back on track between now and July, he’d stand out as a possible trade candidate; the late-blooming Bleier will turn 32 next week but has three years of team control remaining beyond 2019.

The 24-year-old Scott, meanwhile, is already on the 40-man roster after spending the bulk of the 2018 season with the Orioles. Last year, he logged a lackluster 5.40 ERA but did punched out 76 batters in just 53 1/3 innings of Major League relief. The flamethrower has averaged better than 97 mph on his heater at the MLB level with a gaudy 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate and 36.6 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches. If Scott can rein in his control (4.7 BB/9), he has the makings of a quality late-inning reliever; fielding-independent pitching metrics are already quite bullish on him as it is (3.40 FIP, 2.96 xFIP, 3.18 SIERA in 2018).

AL West Notes: Bregman, Mariners, Chirinos

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There’s no defined timetable for when Alex Bregman will return to the Astros’ lineup, though the star third baseman tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) that an MRI of his ailing right hamstring didn’t reveal anything similar to the 2016 issue that cost him a few weeks of the season. For the time being, Bregman is simply considered day to day, and there’s yet to be any indication that a trip to the injured list is a particular concern for him or the team.

Here’s more from the division…

  • The Mariners’ analytics department identified the revamped changeup of right-hander Brandon Brennan as a pitch worth taking a chance on in the Rule 5 Draft, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com, and to this point the team’s investment has paid off nicely. Brennan has been unscored upon in 8 2/3 innings with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and a terrific 63.2 percent ground-ball rate. Brennan, who’ll turn 28 this summer, is older than most Rule 5 selections and spoke all the more appreciatively of the opportunity in his interview with Johns. Not only does he relish any big league opportunity as a 27-year-old rookie, but Brennan received the surreal experience of making his MLB debut in the same half-inning that Ichiro Suzuki was pulled from his final game to an uproarious standing ovation in his native Japan. The Mariners will have to carry Brennan all season or else expose him to waivers and, if he clears, offer him back to the White Sox for $50K. So far, he’s given Seattle no reason to do so.
  • Jake Kaplan of The Athletic takes a look at the changes Robinson Chirinos has made to his game since signing with the Astros (subscription required). Chirinos details the drills he worked on throughout Spring Training to change his setup behind the plate as well as the slight alteration to his throwing motion — made at the behest of pitching coach Brent Strom after noticing a mechanical flaw. The season is still extraordinarily young, but Chirinos has drawn slightly positive marks in pitch framing, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, after ranking as one of the game’s worst in that regard for much of his career. He’s also halted two of the seven stolen-base attempts against him thus far after catching just 10 percent of thieves in 2018. Only time will tell if the changes yield quantifiable improvements, but that’ll be an interesting thread for both Astros and Rangers fans to follow over the course of the season.

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