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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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Despite significant injuries on the pitching front, the Rays spent much of the season's first half in or on the periphery of the Wild Card chase. The front office took advantage of a seller's market at the deadline even though the club was hovering around .500, bolstering the farm, reducing payroll and setting the stage for what could be a quick turnaround.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $750K buyout of $15MM club option for 2027)
  • Yandy Diaz, 1B: $10MM through 2025 (contract contains $12MM club option for 2026, with no buyout)
  • Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $4.667MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $7MM club option for 2026)
  • Shane McClanahan, LHP: $3.6MM through 2026 (McClanahan is arb-eligible for two more years thereafter)

2025 financial commitment: $27.766MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $40MM

Other Financial Obligations

  • Wander Franco owed $172MM through 2032; Rays unlikely to pay remainder of contract due to abhorrent allegations against Franco and subsequent legal proceedings in Dominican Republic
  • $2MM to Twins for buyout of Manuel Margot's 2025 club option

Option Decisions

  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $10.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (contract also contains $11.5MM club option for 2026 with $500K buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

  • None

As we began this year's Offseason Outlook series, the top focus for the Rays was understandably on the team's roster and reshaping an offense that lacked balance, struggled against righties and was far too whiff-prone. While the series was being written, however, a far broader-reaching issue arose. The awful damage stemming from Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Helene has wrought incalculable, heartbreaking levels of damage on the country's southeast region. The big-picture focus, of course, is on helping those impacted and rebuilding those ravaged communities. In the grand scheme of things, the logistical challenges a natural disaster of this magnitude presents to a baseball team are trivial, at best.

Nonetheless, for the Rays themselves, Hurricane Milton created an unexpected and undeniable challenge the team will have to address. The roof of Tropicana Field was shredded, exposing a stadium interior that does not have a drainage system. It's not yet clear when the facility could return to a serviceable state, but the Rays aren't likely to have their home field available to them to begin the 2025 season. They'll spend as much time and energy this offseason determining where they'll play their home games as they will augmenting their roster. We at MLBTR extend our deepest and most heartfelt condolences to all affected by the tragedy in the southeast.

Turning to the baseball operations side of the offseason, the Rays have a clear picture of what went wrong. Tampa Bay entered the 2024 campaign with an injury-ravaged rotation. Starters Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (flexor tendon surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) were set to miss some or all of the 2024 season while recovering from surgery. Former top pitching prospect Shane Baz was finishing off recovery from his own Tommy John procedure, performed late in the 2022 season.

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World Series Roster Notes: Cortes, Graterol, Vesia

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The Yankees and Dodgers are going to be facing each other in the World Series for the first time since 1981. Since neither LCS went seven games, there will be a few off-days before the World Series is scheduled to begin on Friday. Between now and then, both clubs will be assessing some injured players to see if they could act as reinforcements for the final stretch of the postseason.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters today that there’s “a decent chance” left-hander Nestor Cortes will be on the World Series roster. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic was among those to relay that info on X. As for the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was on SNLA last night and said there’s a chance both righty Brusdar Graterol and lefty Alex Vesia make the roster for the series, per Blake Harris on X.

Cortes landed on the injured list September 25 due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He was shut down for about a week before starting to ramp up again, but hasn’t been on the Yankee roster for any of their postseason series so far.

Presumably, Cortes would be limited to a relief role in the World Series. He was largely working as a starter this year but has been out of action for about a month and has been throwing 10-15 pitch bullpen sessions lately.

The Yanks have had Tim Hill and Tim Mayza as their left-hander relief options of late. Both have been posting good results but in a low-strikeout, grounder-heavy fashion. Hill tossed 44 innings for the Yankees this year with a 2.05 earned run average, only striking out 10.4% of batters faced but with a massive 69.9% ground ball rate. His numbers in seven postseason appearances have been fairly similar: 1.59 ERA, 9.1% strikeout rate and 63.2% grounder rate.

Mayza tossed 18 innings for the Yankees this year with a flat ERA of 4.00. He struck out just 16.2% of batters faced but got grounders at a 55.4% clip. He has only been trusted to toss 1 1/3 innings in the playoffs thus far.

Cortes had a strikeout rate above 25% in each season from 2021 to 2023. That number dropped to 22.8% in 2024 but was still a solid mark. Pitchers can often rack up a few more Ks when moving from the rotation to the bullpen, throwing a little bit harder in shorter stints as opposed to pacing themselves for longer outings. Whether Cortes can do that or not might depend on his health, but if he’s in decent form, he should be expected to provide more punchouts than Hill or Mayza.

Vesia has made 232 regular-season appearances for the Dodgers in his career with a 2.89 ERA. His 11.5% walk rate is on the high side but he’s been able to offset that with a 32.3% strikeout rate. He’s been trusted enough to earn eight saves and 48 holds in that time.

He was on the Dodgers’ roster for the NLDS against the Padres but departed the final contest with an oblique/intercostal injury. He was left off the club’s NLCS roster but could potentially be back in the mix for the World Series. Anthony Banda is currently the only lefty option in the Dodger bullpen, so manager Dave Roberts would undoubtedly love to have Vesia back in the mix.

Graterol is more of a wild card as his 2024 has mostly been a lost season. He only made seven regular season appearances this year due to various injuries. He started the year on the IL due to both hip tightness and right shoulder inflammation, with the latter issue keeping him on the shelf until August. He made his season debut August 6 but left that outing with a right hamstring strain. He came off the IL in September and made six appearances that month but landed back on the IL in the final days of the season due to some more shoulder inflammation.

The on-and-off shoulder problems are concerning but the club might take a chance on him anyway. He’s been a key piece of their bullpen for years and was in good form as recently as 2023. He posted a 1.20 ERA over 68 appearances last year. His 18.7% strikeout rate was subpar but that’s always been his style. He limited walks to a 4.7% clip and kept batted balls on the ground 64.4% of the time.

Blue Jays Hire David Popkins As Hitting Coach

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The Blue Jays announced today that they have hired David Popkins as their new hitting coach. It was reported a few weeks back that the Jays were parting ways with previous hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.

“David’s ability to game plan and connect with players in different ways is a really exciting addition to our coaching staff,” said manager John Schneider in the club’s press release, relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com on X. “He’s a true expert in all types of hitting information and will help our offensive strategy for each game. We’re looking forward to the instant impact of his relentless work ethic.”

Popkins was the hitting coach of the Twins for the past three years, but his contract ended after 2024 and it was reported a few weeks back that it wouldn’t be renewed, sending him to the open market.

In 2022, the Twins hit a collective .248/.317/.401 for a wRC+ of 106, putting them 10th in the majors. Despite that strong offense, the club finished 78-84 but fared better the following year. In 2023, the team hit .243/.326/.428 for a 108 wRC+, tied for sixth in the majors. That helped them put up a record of 87-75, winning the American League Central. The Twins defeated Popkins’ new club in the Wild Card round, sweeping the Blue Jays two games to none before being defeated by the Astros in the Division Series.

2024 was trending towards being another strong season in Minnesota but the club collapsed in the second half. They were holding a postseason spot for most of the campaign but went 9-18 in September and missed out.

The offense still performed fairly well overall, with a collective line of .246/.315/.411 and a 107 wRC+ that was ninth in the league. The bats did wilt as they club was collapsing, with the Twins hitting .218/.285/.338 for a 78 wRC+ in September, though injuries may have played a role there. Key players like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and José Miranda all spent at least part of September on the injured list.

It is always difficult to separate the performances of the players from the coaching staff, but the Twins are coming off three straight seasons of above-average offense with Popkins as their hitting coach.

The Toronto offense has been trending down a bit of late. In 2022, the club hit .264/.329/.431 for a 118 wRC+, second only to the Yankees. Last year, they dropped to a .256/.329/.417 line and 107 wRC+, eighth in the majors. Here in 2024, they were barely above average, with a .241/.313/.389 line and 101 wRC+. The club has decided to make some coaching adjustments that will hopefully turn that trend around, though improving the roster via free agency and trade will be the more important factor.

Padres Plan To Discuss Extension With Mike Shildt

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Padres skipper Mike Shildt originally signed a two-year contract when hired to manage the club last offseason, but the club already has interest in keeping him around for a longer period. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller tells the Padres beat that the front office will sit down with Shildt and several members of the coaching staff to see if they can “line up” on a deal to keep them around on longer-term deals (X link via Annie Heilbrunn).

Under the 56-year-old Shildt, the Padres played at a 93-69 pace, good for second in the National League West and a Wild Card berth in the postseason. Shildt’s Padres topped the Braves 2-0 in the first round of postseason play before taking the archrival Dodgers to their limit in a thrilling, back-and-forth five-game National League Division Series. Ultimately, a Friars club that scored 21 runs over the first three games of the series was held scoreless in Games 4 and 5 alike.

Despite that disheartening finish to the season, Shildt’s first year in San Diego has to be considered a success. The Padres’ record improved by 11 games, and San Diego returned to postseason play after missing out on the heels of an 82-80 showing a year prior. As importantly, Shildt quickly won the clubhouse over. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to several Padres veterans late in the season — many of whom have been with the team for multiple prior managers — and each took the opportunity to heap praise onto the environment and culture that Shildt had brought to the clubhouse. Joe Musgrove, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado have all played under three different managers in San Diego (four, in Machado’s case), and all effused praise for the job Shildt has done in his first season at the helm.

Of course, while Shildt was new to the Padres organization this season, this certainly wasn’t his first experience managing. He spent three and a half seasons leading the Cardinals’ dugout, and his dismissal in St. Louis registered as a legitimate shock following the 2021 season. Shildt had originally joined the Cardinals as a scout in 2003 before getting into minor league coaching and managing. In 2017, he was added to the big league staff as a quality control coach. He eventually became the team’s third base coach, then bench coach, and then interim manager following Mike Matheny’s firing. He soon shed the “interim” label and was extended on a three-year deal. He was named National League Manager of the Year in 2019.

In the weeks prior to Shildt’s own firing in St. Louis, the Cardinals had gone on an astonishing 17-game September winning streak to come roaring back into postseason contention. They lost a then one-game Wild Card date with the Dodgers, but Shildt was generally seen as an extension candidate following that 2021 campaign. Instead, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” in cutting ties with Shildt and promoting current skipper Oli Marmol to the post.

Shildt landed on his feet quickly. He took a job in the Commissioner’s Office, working in on-field operations alongside former Marlins general manager Michael Hill. Just six weeks later, he was hired as a player development consultant for the Padres and allowed to work in both roles simultaneously. San Diego had previously interviewed him for their managerial vacancy which wound up going to Bob Melvin, but Shildt received another interview two years later and this time landed the job on his current two-year contract.

Barring an extension, Shildt would head into next year as the proverbial and dreaded “lame duck” manager on an expiring contract, so it’s sensible enough that the Padres — who’ve now employed Shildt in some capacity for three years — are hopeful of solidifying his standing within the organization.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Mets Notes: JDM, Quintana, Manaea

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A season filled with OMGs and Grimace memes came to an end this weekend when the Dodgers toppled the Mets in a 10-5 win that propelled L.A. to a World Series showdown and left the Mets looking ahead to the 2025 campaign. New York’s roster is teeming with veteran free agents, and president of baseball operations David Stearns and his staff will have their work cut out for them in reshaping the roster this offseason. Several outgoing Mets free agents made clear they’d have interest in returning, including some aging vets who are getting into the latter stages of their career.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez joked “pickleball” when asked what the future held for him (video link via SNY). The 37-year-old slugger said first and foremost, his future includes heading home to be with his new daughter, who he has barely seen since she was born in September. Beyond the family time, Martinez made clear that he hopes to continue his playing career but only if teams take the initiative. “I’m not going to come back because I’m begging to come back,” said Martinez. “I’m going to come back because it makes sense. At the end of the day, time is the most valuable thing.”

Presumably, that means there’s a price point at which Martinez won’t feel compelled to commit to further time away from his growing young family. But the slugger also recently appeared on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast and told host Rob Bradford that frustration over a general lack of interest last offseason led him to ponder retirement.

“I felt like it was just an awkward year,” said Martinez (video link). “Here I am, the team’s breaking in five days, and I don’t even have a team yet. Your brain goes into a weird mode, where you’re like ’Am I playing? Am I not? Am I playing? Am I not? Is this it? Am I retired? … We weren’t asking for anything that, at the time, I feel like other players hadn’t gotten.”

Martinez went on to say that he waited all offseason for offers to materialize and “100%” considered retiring, even telling his best friend: “I think this it. I’m staying home. This is dumb. I’m begging for a job, and I had a .900 OPS last year.”

Heading into the 2024-25 offseason, Martinez won’t be coming off the same type of campaign he enjoyed with the Dodgers in 2023. During his lone year in L.A., he bashed 33 homers and hit .271/.321/.572 in 479 plate appearances. Martinez was still a clearly above-average bat this past season, but a sluggish start after signing late (March 23) and a dismal finish to the season left him with a .235/.320/.406 batting line. That was about eight percent better than average, by measure of wRC+ (108).

An optimist could toss out a slow two weeks to start the season and overlook that finish to see that from mid-May through late August, Martinez hit .251/.336/.459 with 16 homers in 387 plate appearances, but teams won’t be so charitable as to just write those struggles off and focus only on his peak in-season production. Martinez did note that he’s encouraged by his batted-ball metrics even though the ultimate production wasn’t in line with his best work, and to his credit, he maintained excellent marks in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He also cut back on his career-worst 2023 strikeout rate and improved his walk rate to its highest level since 2019.

Teammate Jose Quintana was more direct and more straightforward in his intentions to return next year. The 35-year-old lefty told reporters (link via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers): “I’m healthy. I feel good. I want to try one more time to win a championship. This was the closest I’ve been in my career. One day I’m going to get the opportunity.”

Quintana, 36 in January, pitched 170 1/3 innings of 3.75 ERA ball for the Mets in 2024 — the second season of a two-year, $26MM free agent deal. His 18.8% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate don’t necessarily support that level of success, but Quintana was a reliable source of innings and has a lengthy track record of quality rotation work in the majors. Starting pitching is always in demand, and he has a good chance at commanding another eight-figure salary on a one-year deal — if not potential to find a similar two-year deal to the one he just completed.

Age considerations aren’t as prominent for 32-year-old Sean Manaea, who’s all but a lock to decline a $13.5MM player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Manaea has signed back-to-back “prove it” deals, so to speak, signing consecutive two-year deals with opt-out opportunities. He opted out of his deal with the Giants following the 2023 season, will opt out of his Mets deal next month, and is now finally in position to command the type of lengthier multi-year deal that’s eluded him to this point in free agency. The Mets will very likely make him a qualifying offer, but even with draft compensation attached to his name, Manaea could command a three-year pact this time around.

The left-hander pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings, plus another 19 in the postseason. His regular season ended with a 3.47 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He was hit hard in his final start — the one that ended the Mets’ season — but held opponents to five runs in 17 innings across his first three postseason starts (2.65 ERA).

Time will tell whether Manaea is back in New York, but the southpaw emphasized how much he loved his time with the organization and called the 2024 campaign the best season of his career (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). “I love my time here,” said Manaea. “I love New York. I love the organization. I love all the people here. Definitely give it a couple of days, let the body rest and then we’ll go from there.”

In addition to the trio of Martinez, Manaea and Quintana, the Mets will also see Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias, Drew Smith and Ryne Stanek all become free agents after the World Series.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 World Series matchup is now set, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: Freeman, Front Office Hires, Mets

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With the World Series match up now set in stone, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Freeman nursing ankle injury:

Star first baseman Freddie Freeman was not in the Dodgers’ lineup for the club’s series-clinching win against the Mets last night as he continues to struggle with a sprained ankle that’s limited his availability all throughout the postseason. Even when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, Freeman has looked nothing like himself at the plate with a paltry .219/.242/.219 slash line in the postseason, including a .167/.211/.167 slash line during the NLCS. As Freeman looks to rest up over the next four days before World Series rosters are due, a major question figures to face both him and the Dodgers: is he healthy enough to participate, or would the club be better served using his roster spot another way?

2. Are any front office hires on the horizon?

As we enter a brief stretch of days without baseball before the World Series, it shouldn’t be a surprise if teams begin to make announcements (which are often held back to accommodate a focus on the postseason) regarding some personnel decisions this week. There’s been quite a bit of buzz regarding a handful of potential front office hires in recent days, in particular. The Red Sox appear to be on the cusp of hiring another assistant GM, which could be coupled with them promoting internally for their currently vacant GM role. Additionally, the Giants’ search for a GM to serve as a second-in-command to newly-minted president of baseball operations Buster Posey figures to continue in full force this week. The field of potential candidates still appears to be expansive, though one name pulled himself from consideration over the weekend.

3. Mets head into the offseason:

After their club’s run to the NLCS, Mets brass will have little opportunity to celebrate as they turn their attention toward an offseason where a massive number of their current players are slated for free agency. That group is led, of course, by longtime first baseman Pete Alonso. But other key players who are ticketed for free agency this winter include J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea (who has an opt-out in his deal he’ll surely exercise), Jose Iglesias, Jesse Winker, and Harrison Bader. Under the ownership of Steve Cohen, the Mets have run top-of-the-line payrolls and shown a willingness to sign players even with free agency just around the corner, as they did with Edwin Diaz during the 2022-23 offseason. With more than half a dozen key players headed to free agency this winter, could the club make another surprise preemptive strike?

Poll: Who Wins The World Series?

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The most common rivalry in World Series history is being renewed for the first time since 1981, as the Dodgers and Yankees will meet for a record 12th time in the Fall Classic.  New York holds an 8-3 lead in the previous matchups, which included such iconic baseball moments as Jackie Robinson’s steal of home, Don Larsen’s perfect game, Reggie Jackson’s three-homer performance, and many more.

Now, a modern set of superstar players will square off.  Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Teoscar Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be among those trying to win their first World Series rings, while the likes of Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are looking to add to their already-storied October legacies.

The L.A. lineup was simply too much for the Mets in the NLCS, as the Dodgers scored 46 runs over the six games.  While the Dodgers’ reliever-heavy pitching attack is still trying to cover innings amidst a lot of injuries to regular starters, the team is perhaps just pitching too well to really call it a “patchwork” staff any more — Los Angeles has recorded four shutouts in its last eight playoff games.

The New York offense was also too much for the Guardians in the ALCS, with Stanton and Soto in particular leading the way with a combined seven homers and 13 RBI over the five-game series.  Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt have also formed a powerful three-man front in the rotation, and Luke Weaver’s late-season emergence as the Yankees’ closer has continued into a largely dominant postseason.

The Yankees are looking to add to their record total of 27 championships, though they are in a relative drought by the franchise’s lofty standards.  This is only the second time in 21 seasons that New York has taken part in the World Series, with the only other appearance in that span coming in 2009 when the Yankees defeated the Phillies.  The Dodgers have “only” seven titles to show from their 22 trips to the World Series, but they have the most recent victory, capturing the 2020 Series that followed the pandemic-shortened regular season.

Since the Dodgers won 98 regular-season games to the Yankees’ 94 wins, Los Angeles holds the home-field advantage, so the World Series is set to begin on Friday at Dodger Stadium.  Just one question remains….what’s your prediction?

(poll link for app users)

Red Sox Hire Taylor Smith From Rays For Possible AGM Role

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The Red Sox are nearing a deal to hire Taylor Smith for an unspecified analytics-based role in the club’s front office, according to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo.  Smith could be joining the ranks as an assistant general manager, which would presumably also come with some type of VP title like Boston’s other four assistant GMs under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

Smith had been working with the Rays as Tampa Bay’s director of predictive modeling.  He has been with the organization since graduating from the University of Georgia in 2018, and Smith was initially hired as an analyst in Tampa’s research and development team.  He’ll now head to a larger role in Boston, becoming the latest in a seemingly endless line of Rays staffers hired by other teams to try and learn from Tampa Bay’s consistent success in player development.

As McAdam wrote in another piece earlier this week, assistant GM Mike Groopman had been considered the “de facto overseer” of Boston’s analytics operations, but Groopman was being shifted into another role “with more of a focus on player acquisition.”  It would seem that Smith will now be filling the gap left behind by Groopman’s role change, and it remains to be seen some more shuffling could be on the way.

Paul Toboni, another assistant GM, has been rumored to be the top in-house name to become Breslow’s official top lieutenant as Boston’s general manager, so if Toboni is promoted, the Red Sox would still have four AGMs (Smith, Groopman, Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero) in place.  McAdam suggests that promoting Toboni might also be a way of keeping him within the organization, and away from GM vacancies with the Giants and Mets.  There are some links between Toboni and other those jobs, as McAdam writes that Toboni is from the Bay Area, and he previously worked with Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns in the Brewers’ front office.

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