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Blue Jays Sign Marcus Semien

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JANUARY 30: The Blue Jays have announced the deal.

JANUARY 26: The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.

Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself headed to Oakland as part of the December 2014 Jeff Samardzija deal. For the next three seasons, Semien produced like a second-division starter, averaging 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that hike in value, however, came on the defensive end.

His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether another hulk-out season is coming. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a high-floor player with potential for more.

Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive scores (at least since 2018) by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. For that matter, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays. They can now continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more to likely start most games at first. That foursome – Guerrero, Semien, Bichette, and Biggio – has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.

This isn’t the first firework Toronto has lit this winter. Their lineup now features a well-fed George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood will help the bullpen, and don’t forget that the offseason began with the Jays keeping Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is projected around $146MM. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent a spending increase, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payroll has jumped from approximately $118MM to $132MM.

In terms of value, the Jays did well to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14MM contract for Semien, so he’ll make slightly more in total dollars than we expected. Seeing Andrelton Simmons sign for $7.5MM less might feel disheartening at first, but Semien has the higher ceiling, and if nothing else, Toronto maintains the long-term integrity of the plan to keep Bichette at short by adding Semien over Simmons. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, and Bichette has as good a chance as any of them to stick at short.

At second, Semien should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore and Simmons in Minnesota, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Didi Gregorius is now the top option still available in free agency, with Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto behind him.

For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9MM qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first broke news of the deal, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the terms of the deal (via Twitter), and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chimed in with Toronto’s defensive plans for Semien. Many have also noted that former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke this news earlier today on instagram. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels To Sign Junior Guerra To Minor-League Deal

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The Angels are signing right-hander Junior Guerra to a minor-league contract, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Presumably, the deal will include an invitation to MLB spring training.

After four seasons as a highly-utilized swingman in Milwaukee, Guerra signed with the Diamondbacks before the 2020 season. He pitched 23.2 innings of 3.04 ERA ball with Arizona, but his underlying numbers suggest he was rather fortunate to manage that level of run prevention. Guerra struck out just 20.4% of opposing hitters, significantly below the league average mark (24.1%) for relievers. He also walked a career-high 14.6% of batters faced, the thirteenth-highest rate among the 323 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched last year. Wary of those mediocre peripherals, Arizona released Guerra rather than pay him an arbitration salary projected in the $2.8MM range.

There’s no harm for the Angels in bringing Guerra in on a non-roster deal to bolster the pitching depth. To his credit, the 36-year-old did induce plenty of ground balls last season. He also has ample experience working multiple innings out of the pen (and starting, although he’s exclusively been a reliever the past two seasons). Over his big league career, Guerra owns a 3.77 ERA/4.55 SIERA.

Hyeon-jong Yang Ends Negotiations With Kia Tigers To Pursue MLB Opportunity

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South Korean left-hander Hyeon-jong Yang has ended negotiations with his previous KBO team, the Kia Tigers, and is committed to landing a major league contract, reports Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. The Tigers had reportedly made Yang, 33 in March, a multi-year offer to return, notes Yoo, but he’ll instead continue to pursue an MLB deal.

Yang’s agent In-gook Choi told Yoo earlier this month his client was only interested in a guaranteed major league contract, saying he “(wouldn’t) take a split deal.” That’s no longer the case, as Yoo reports Yang would now be open to any contract that guarantees him a 40-man roster spot, even if he’ll have to start the 2021 season in the minors.

Finding a spot on a team’s 40-man could still prove to be a tough task, as Yang’s coming off a disappointing 2020. Last season, he pitched to a 4.70 ERA over 172.1 innings, a far cry from his brilliant 2.29 mark the season before. Perhaps more worrisome, Yang’s swing-and-miss and control seemingly both went in the wrong direction last season. The southpaw’s strikeout rate dropped over two percentage points (20% in 2020, down from 22.2% in 2019), while his walk rate nearly doubled (up to 8.6% in 2020 from 4.5% in 2019).

Last year’s numbers belie Yang’s much stronger career track record. In fourteen KBO seasons, all with the Tigers, Yang has compiled a 3.83 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate against a 9.4% walk rate.

Astros To Sign Steven Souza To Minor-League Deal

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The Astros are in agreement on a deal with outfielder Steven Souza Jr., reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). It’s a minor-league deal, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Souza’s deal comes with an invitation to major league spring training, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.

Souza once looked like a potential core piece on the heels of a strong three-year run with the Rays, culminating in a .239/.351/.459 (121 wRC+), 30-homer season in 2017. After that campaign, the Diamondbacks acquired Souza in a three-team trade involving Tampa Bay and the Yankees.

Unfortunately, the move didn’t pan out. Souza struggled with both injuries and underperformance in 2018, then suffered a devastating knee injury near the end of the following spring training. That ended his 2019 season before it began; the Diamondbacks non-tendered him that winter. Souza did manage to return to the big leagues in 2020 after signing a one-year deal with the Cubs. His stay in Chicago lasted only eleven games, though, thanks in part to another stint on the injured list (this time for a hamstring strain).

It has now been three years since Souza’s managed a full, healthy season. Nevertheless, there’s no risk for the Astros in bringing the 31-year-old in on a non-roster deal and giving him an opportunity to compete for a job in spring training. It looks to be a decent landing spot for Souza, as there’s little depth in the Astros’ corner outfield behind projected starters Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker.

Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado

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10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.

8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.

This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.

While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.

Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.

The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.”  But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.

The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.

With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.

Testimonials From Trade Rumors Front Office Subscribers

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An ad-free subscription to MLBTR costs just $2.99 per month or $29.89 per year. Check out the full benefits here.  I’ve rounded up a new batch of testimonials from current Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers for your consideration:

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Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

Braves, Carl Edwards Jr. Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have reached a minor league agreement with right-handed reliever Carl Edwards Jr., Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

Edwards is best known as a member of the Cubs, with whom he spent 2015-19 and won a World Series in 2016. He was a highly effective reliever for most of that period, though Edwards’ production fell off in his last season as a Cub and they traded him to the Padres that summer. Edwards didn’t last long as a Padre, throwing 1 2/3 innings of six-run ball before they let him go.

Edwards became a Mariner before last season when he signed a major league deal with the team, though forearm problems limited him to just 4 2/3 innings. However, the 29-year-old did yield a meager one run during that time and post better strikeout and walk percentages than usual (35.3 and 5.9).

In all, Edwards has recorded a 3.54 ERA/3.52 SIERA, averaged about 95 mph on his fastball, and registered a 32.9 percent strikeout rate against a 13.7 walk rate in 180 2/3 major league innings. Based on his track record, it’s easy to see why a team would take a chance on him in free agency. The Braves are an especially logical fit with Mark Melancon and Shane Greene on the free-agent market.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/29/21

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The latest minor transactions from around the game…

  • The Rockies have re-signed utilityman Chris Owings to a minor league deal, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 29-year-old slashed .268/.318/.439 with two home runs over 44 trips to the plate as a Rockie in 2020. In all, Owings – a former Diamondback, Red Sox and Royal – has hit .241/.285/.367 with 36 homers and 76 steals in 2,346 plate appearances as a major leaguer.
  • The Athletics have re-upped catcher Carlos Perez to a minor league contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Perez will earn a $650K salary if he makes it to the majors. The 30-year-old appeared in the majors in each season from 2015-18, but he hasn’t gotten back to the bigs since then. A former Angel, Ranger and Brave, Perez has batted .215/.257/.319 with 11 home runs in 670 plate appearances.
  • The Pirates have outrighted outfielder Troy Stokes Jr. to Triple-A Indianapolis, per reports from Jake Crouse and PittsburghBaseball.com’s John Dreker. The team previously designated Stokes for assignment Jan. 24, less than two weeks after it claimed him from the Tigers via waivers. Stokes, who will turn 25 on Feb. 2, has batted .250/.351/.411 with 57 HRs and 129 steals in 2,355 PA at the minor league level.

Indians Re-Sign Cesar Hernandez

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JAN. 29: The signing is official, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The club option is worth $6MM. There’s no buyout, according to Heyman.

JAN. 26, 1:21pm: Hernandez will earn $5MM, Heyman tweets.

9:12am: The two sides are in agreement on a deal, pending the completion of a physical, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

9:02am: The Indians are nearing a deal to re-sign free agent second baseman Cesar Hernandez, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. If completed, it’d be a one-year deal with a club option for a second season in 2022. Hernandez, an Octagon client, has left his winter league team in Venezuela in order to finalize the new contract, according to Alvarez.

Cesar Hernandez | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The 30-year-old Hernandez spent the 2020 season as Cleveland’s primary second baseman after signing a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter. That contract paid off nicely for the club, as Hernandez turned in a characteristically solid .283/.355/.408 batting line with three homers and an AL-best 20 doubles while playing in 58 of the 60 games during last year’s shortened slate. He also went 3-for-8 with another double in his tiny sample of postseason work.

Beyond his strong showing at the plate, Hernandez enjoyed an excellent year in the field. The eight-year big league veteran took home his first Gold Glove in 2020 after posting strong marks in Defensive Runs Saved (6), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.8) and Outs Above Average (4).

The Hernandez reunion will be the first move made by Cleveland this winter that actually adds to the payroll. The Indians have been largely focused on shedding as much salary as possible, having declined a $10MM option on Brad Hand — he recently agreed to a $10.5MM deal with the Nats — and traded both Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets. Prior to the new agreement with Hernandez, the Indians were projected to carry a payroll of less than $40MM, which was far and away the lowest projected payroll in the game.

That said, an affordable deal for Hernandez could provide some indirect cost savings down the line. Cleveland picked up middle infielders Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez from the Mets in that Lindor/Carrasco blockbuster, and if Gimenez spends even a few weeks in the minor leagues this year, his path to free agency would be pushed back from the 2025-26 offseason to the 2026-27 offseason. That surely isn’t the sole reason Cleveland brought Hernandez back — he’s a solid player at a reasonable price who can now be retained through 2022  — but starting the year with Rosario at short and Hernandez at second undeniably has some added appeal for that reason.

Final judgment on the Indians’ chances in 2021 will be reserved until we see what further additions (and/or subtractions) the team makes between now and Opening Day. But it’s clear that after trading away not only Lindor and Carrasco but also Mike Clevinger, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and buying out Hand’s option that the team is aiming for a radically lower payroll that will render it difficult to compete with an aggressive White Sox club and a Twins  roster that has won consecutive division titles.

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