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The Other Rockies’ Superstar Who Made St. Louis Home

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If the Cardinals are able to complete their acquisition of star third baseman Nolan Arenado – under the terms as we know them now – they’ll add the best defensive third baseman of his generation. Kyle Newman of the Denver Post pegs the Arenado deal as the biggest trade in Rockies’ franchise history. Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong certainly sounds pleased, saying on MLB Network Radio today (via Twitter), “…having a guy like Arenado in our lineup is going to completely change the way pitchers look at us.”

Arenado’s trophy case is full: five All-Star nominations, four Silver Slugger awards, and a Gold Glove for every season in the Majors (eight). A career .293/.349/.541 hitter, Arenado has created 39.1 bWAR/32.3 fWAR with a solid 7.9 percent career walk rate and solid 15.0 percent career strikeout rate. Though 2020 was a down year offensively, he became one of the toughest hitters in the game to strikeout, doing so in only 10.0 percent of his plate appearances.

All that said, he would head to Busch Stadium III with the usual caveats of a player leaving Coors Field. Namely: can he hit outside of Coors?

Paul Goldschmidt can walk Arenado through the transition from face-of-the-franchise in the west to being just “one of the guys” crashing at Yadi Molina’s house. But to preview the shock-to-the-system Arenado may face taking his hacks so much closer to sea level, we can go a little further back to another Rockies’ superstar who went east for the latter half of his career: Matt Holliday.

Holliday averaged 154 wRC+ per season during his first five years at Coors Field, his age-24 to age-28 seasons (2004 to 2008). Over that same time span he posted 105 wRC+ on the road. For his part, Arenado is a career 128 wRC+ hitter at home and 108 wRC+ hitter away from Coors.

Visual learners can check this Fangraphs chart for his home/road splits by age, then do the same for Holliday. Holliday’s splits look nearly the same through age-30 before converging at the point in his career that Arenado faces now: 30 years-old and permanently changing his address from Denver to St. Louis.

As you can see in that chart, Holliday’s overall wOBA follows a fairly traditional aging curve. Playing at Coors Field, however, can warp the shape of that production. As this March article from the Athletic’s Nick Groke covers in detail, the Coors Field dilemma isn’t just about how fast the balls fly through Colorado’s thin air, but how much sharper the breaks appear to hitters on the road. As much as Coors helps a hitter’s numbers (more than a normal home split), playing away from Coors hurts (more than a normal road split).

To think in terms of wRC+, it might just be that the Arenado who arrives in St. Louis will no longer be a 128 wRC+ hitter at home and a 108 wRC+ hitter on the road – but he could still be a 118 wRC+ hitter overall.

Or at least, that was Holliday’s path. Over his seven years in St. Louis, his home/road splits stabilized. He would average 133 wRC+ on the road and 142 wRC+ per season at home. On the whole, he arguably became a better hitter with 133 wRC+ during his five seasons in Colorado compared to 139 wRC+ in his seven full seasons in St. Louis. Does that mean Arenado will do the same? Of course not. Just because Holliday stayed largely healthy and productive past his prime years doesn’t mean that Arenado will do the same.

Holliday and Arenado tracked mirroring paths to the Show-Me State. Holliday’s age-29 season was anomalous for his career in terms of the playing conditions – just like Arenado. Whereas Arenado had to deal with a 60-game season in a pandemic-wracked world, Holliday faced the equally jarring reality of moving from Coors Field to Oakland’s spacious Coliseum. I kid, but Holliday’s half-season in Oakland stands out as a singularly odd year on Holliday’s resume in terms of the conditions relative to the rest of his career. If Arenado stays in St. Louis the length of his contract, he’ll be in Cardinal red for seven seasons from age 30 to 36 – the exact length of stay Holliday enjoyed in the Gateway to the West.

On the other hand, they aren’t the exact same type of hitter. While both are right-handed sluggers, Holliday had a little more in common with Goldschmidt than Arenado. Holiday was a worm killer even in his era. As a Rockie, Holliday logged a 1.38 groundball-to-flyball rate, whereas Arenado’s 0.87 GB/FB rate reflects the fact that he hits the ball in the air more than Holliday ever did. Compared to the rest of the league, Holliday hit the ball on the ground more than the average player throughout his career. Arenado can’t even see him from so far down the other end of that spectrum.

Holliday sprayed the ball to all fields a little more than Arenado, who leans pull side with 41.8 percent pull percentage to 23.1 percent opposite field for his career. Theoretically, that could hurt Arenado, as Busch tends to be a good singles and triples park for righties while suppressing offense in most other regards, per Park Factors at Swish Analytics. At least he’ll have a shorter porch in left to target, for what that’s worth.

Will Arenado adapt to his new confines? Ask Holliday, who not only tread this path before but was teammates with Arenado in 2018. He offers nothing but praise, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Besides, Arenado’s glove should continue to be an exceptional asset. While age may diminish his abilities at the hot corner somewhat, he has a lot of wiggle room before even entering the stratosphere of any other third baseman outside, maybe, Matt Chapman. With DeJong on his left, he shouldn’t even face much of an adjustment there. DeJong may be one of the few defensive shortstops who can rival Trevor Story’s competence on that end.

Arenado is heading from an organization that has never won its division to one of the game’s premier, trademark franchises. He’s leaving the NL West, where the Dodgers and Padres are readying for what could be an epic divisional bloodbath – and he’s joining the NL Central, where contenders are being broken down and sold for parts. It might be a jarring move for Arenado, but he can always look back and take comfort in the fact that this trail has been blazed before – and it worked out quite well. Remember, it was only their second full season together that Holliday and the Cardinals won the World Series.

Twins Sign Andrelton Simmons

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Jan 31: The Twins have officially announced the signing. The Twins now have two open spots on their 40-man roster.

Jan 26: The Twins have reached an agreement with free agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons on a one-year, $10.5MM contract, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Per the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman (via Twitter), the deal is done, pending a physical. The ISE Baseball client is the third shortstop and fourth infielder to come off the board in the past few hours.

The Twins step in from somewhat out-of-the-blue to sign Simmons – but not entirely. Twins GM Thad Levine flagged the potential for a move like this recently in saying that the defensive versatility of their current roster gave them options in free agency. Jorge Polanco will slide over to second base, while Luis Arraez will move around the diamond as needed, notes Passan.

Levine recently spoke of being impressed by the Dodgers’ malleability in the World Series, noting that his own roster could flex similarly, especially with manager Rocco Baldelli as a capable tactician at the wheel. If nothing else, with Simmons at short, Josh Donaldson at third, and Byron Buxton in center, the Twins boast a defense with upside enough to make a difference. Moving Polanco off short and installing Simmons in his place – on its own – has the makings of an impactful upgrade.

The four-time Gold Glove Award winner has long been considered the tastemaker with the glove at short, though ankle injuries have limited his contributions the past two seasons. His glovework was worth -1 outs above average over a 30-game sample in 2020 before he opted out, but in just 103 games the year prior, he was second among all shortstops with 12 OAA. It’s not at all a reach to suggest that Simmons is a generational talent on the defensive end.

There are more questions on the offensive side of the game. For his career, Simmons owns a slash line of .269/.317/.379 with a career 90 wRC+. The 31-year-old won’t be asked to carry the weight of the offense on a Twins’ club that has been known for its power output in recent years. Of course, two major contributors to the Bomba Squad – Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz – are currently free agents.*

Last season, Simmons slashed .297/.346/.356 across 127 plate appearances with a 12.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate. Simmons is one of the toughest players in the game to strikeout, though that’s in part because he’s a free swinger who doesn’t take many walks. His batter ball numbers weren’t good in 2020 – for example, zero barrels – but in such a small sample it’s tough to glean much substance.

The question Twins fans will ask is whether this signing precludes Minnesota from a reunion with designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Signing Simmons at this price point for one year could certainly be seen as a way to save money. In terms of maximizing flexibility, replacing Cruz with Simmons certainly accomplishes the task. That said, there’s an argument to be made that adding Simmons to the defense make Cruz an even better fit on the offensive end. Last we heard, however, there hasn’t been much movement on talks between the Twins and Cruz – though with this box checked, talks could just as well open up again. That figures to change, or way or another, with Simmons now in the fold. The Twins might not be done, however. Per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter), someone with the clubs says they have “two more moves ahead before the offseason is out.”

In terms of his value relative to the market, Minnesota nets Simmons for slightly less than we projected for him at the outset of free agency – MLBTR forecast $12MM. He lands pretty firmly between the one-year deals signed by his peers today. Marcus Semien signed for $18MM, while Freddy Galvis signed for $1.5MM. All three will now re-enter free agency next season when Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez are also set to hit the open market.

*Rosario has since signed with the Indians.

Quick Hits: Indians, Payroll, Patton, Nationals, Catchers

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The Indians did not budget enough money in 2021 to both re-sign Cesar Hernandez and add free agent Eddie Rosario. With those two completing the lineup, the Indians’ roster is more-or-less set with a payroll around $50MM, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Take this for what it is, but the Indians exceeded payroll just to get there. Owner Paul Dolan made an extra concession to allow the addition of Rosario. To their credit, he represents a somewhat major addition given their inability to field above-average offensive outfielders. Over the last two seasons, Rosario slashed .271/.305/.494 with 45 home runs over 821 plate appearances, good for a modest 105 wRC+. That Nolan was willing to stretch the payroll speaks volumes about how the Indians value Rosario’s fit in the lineup.

  • Spencer Patton is throwing an improved change-up with the hopes of bringing three viable pitches out of the bullpen, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The 32-year-old right-hander led Nippon Professional Baseball with 57 appearances last season, which is no small feat to MLB teams aware of the perils in ramping up pitcher workloads in 2021. Patton’s numbers from Japan won’t blow you away, however, with a 4.92 ERA, respectable 28.1 percent strikeout rate, and slightly-concerning 11.7 percent walk rate. Patton will throw for teams again on February 2nd, with the Braves, Rays, Angels, Royals, Rangers, and Giants being among the teams to have shown some interest thus far.
  • Pitching has long been the focus for the Nationals organization, but at the same time, they’ve lagged behind in the catching department, writes MASNSports.com’s Mark Zuckerman. Pedro Severino is the most prolific homegrown catcher with 105 games played for the organization – though he didn’t break out until joining the Orioles. Raudy Read or Tres Barrera are next in line to have an opportunity, but the recent signing of Alex Avila suggests GM Mike Rizzo isn’t ready to give either one too long of a look out of the blocks. Both Barrera and Read have served PED suspensions in the past, however, and Welington Castillo will also be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

AL East Notes: Vazquez, Angels, Tanaka, Blue Jays, Taillon

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The Angels signed Kurt Suzuki this offseason, and with a catching corps of Suzuki, Max Stassi, and Anthony Bemboom, adding an upper-tier backstop “would be a luxury and not a necessity” for the team, FanSided’s Robert Murray writes.  However, the Halos have at least checked in on some prominent catchers, including Christian Vazquez of the Red Sox.  No deal appears to be close, as the Sox naturally want quite a lot for Vazquez and “there are doubts whether the Red Sox will entertain trading him” whatsoever.

Vazquez is entering his final guaranteed year of the contract extension he signed in March 2018.  He’ll earn $6.25MM in 2021, and the Red Sox hold a $7MM club option ($250K buyout) on his services for 2022.  It’s a very affordable price for one of the game’s better defensive catchers, not to mention a catcher who has swung an increasingly dangerous bat — Vazquez has hit .278/.327/.472 with 30 homers in 710 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season.  He does turn 31 in August, so the Sox could think about moving him at a high point in his trade value, but the Angels or any suitor would have to step up with a very big offer to get Boston’s attention.

More from the AL East…

  • In a press conference announcing his return to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, Masahiro Tanaka implied that he could return to Major League Baseball even before his two-year deal with the Eagles is up.  “I feel I have unfinished business in America, and I haven’t given up on that, so they agreed on terms that would keep those options open,” Tanaka said.  This could seem to hint at an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post notes, and quite possibly a return to the Yankees in 2022.  With the Yankees intent on resetting their luxury tax penalty limit this winter, the team opted to spend its resources elsewhere rather than re-sign Tanaka at his desired asking price.  Come next offseason, however, the Yankees might well be willing to exceed the tax threshold (and pay only a first-timer penalty fee) in order to acquire Tanaka and other roster upgrades.
  • Also from Robert Murray, Blue Jays outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk are drawing trade interest.  The addition of George Springer has created a surplus in Toronto’s outfield, with Grichuk seemingly relegated to fourth outfielder duty as Gurriel and Teoscar Hernandez are slated for the corners.  It’s safe to guess that Gurriel is the more sought-after player, since Gurriel is over two years younger than Grichuk and has a less-expensive contract — Gurriel is owed $13.4MM through the 2023 season, while Grichuk is owed $29MM.  One of the outfielders could be dangled a way of obtaining pitching, since the Jays continue to look for both rotation and bullpen help.
  • The Rays were one of the other suitors trying to obtain Jameson Taillon from the Pirates, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Taillon ended up traded to the Yankees, and as Topkin points out, the Rays had interest in both Taillon and Corey Kluber, New York’s two main pitching acquisitions of the offseason.

Twins, Nelson Cruz Resume Negotiations

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Nelson Cruz and the Twins have recently restarted talks on a new contract for the slugger, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Cruz had been looking for a two-year contract, but “the possibility of a one-year accord [is] now on the table” in his current discussions with Minnesota, Hayes writes.

Despite mutual interest in a continued relationship, there hasn’t been much action between Cruz and the Twins this offseason since both sides were fairly entrenched in their positions.  The team didn’t want to pay too much money and give more than one guaranteed year to a player who turns 41 in July, especially when a DH-only player like Cruz is (at the moment) limited to only American League teams.  From Cruz’s perspective, he was hopeful that his market could expand to NL teams if the universal DH was implemented, and as a result was looking for a two-year contract commensurate with his continued outstanding production.

Since there isn’t yet any movement towards the NL getting the designated hitter in 2021, that could explain why Cruz’s representatives have re-engaged with the Twins, and why there have be some flexibility from Cruz’s original two-year ask.  As Hayes notes, however, the two sides still have to “common ground on a salary,” which may not be simple since the Twins would ideally like to both re-sign Cruz and still have money left over to obtain more pitching.  Minnesota has weighed such alternate strategies as focusing all of its available payroll space on pitching and either letting its internal options handle the DH spot, or perhaps signing a cheaper alternative to Cruz — Hayes notes that Edwin Encarnacion has been considered as a possibility.

Or, in separate direction entirely, the Twins have also “floated” the idea of another free agent signing in Marcell Ozuna.  Such a move would pivot the club away from a pitching search, since Ozuna would be both pricier than Cruz and require at least a three-year contract.  Ozuna is over a decade younger than Cruz, of course, and while Ozuna might become a DH-only type in the future, Minnesota could deploy him as a part-time outfielder for at least a season or two.  It’s probably safe to assume that Ozuna is something of a Plan C for the Twins, just in case an agreement couldn’t be reached with either Cruz or any notable pitching targets.

Reds Interested In Willy Adames, Dee Strange-Gordon

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With several of the top shortstops on the free agent and trade markets now off the board, the Reds are still looking for reliable veteran help at the position.  The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans (subscription required) lists some of the names that might still be available for the Reds, including previously-reported trade target Amed Rosario of the Indians and two new names on the radar — the Rays’ Willy Adames and free agent Dee Strange-Gordon.

Cincinnati and Tampa Bay already discussed Adames in trade talks earlier this winter, Rosencrans writes, “but the Reds wanted to explore the free-agent market first.”  Since the likes of Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, and Andrelton Simmons have all signed elsewhere, it could be possible that the Reds will again circle back to inquire about Adames’ services.

Adames would represent a long-term answer for the Reds’ shortstop position, since he is only 25 years old and under team control through the 2024 season.  Originally acquired by the Rays from the Tigers as part of the David Price trade in 2014, Adames has emerged as Tampa’s everyday choice at shortstop, showing gradual improvement at both the plate and in the field.

Over 2393 1/3 innings as a Major League shortstop, Adames has +9 Defensive Runs Saved, though other metrics like Outs Above Average and UZR/150 rank his glovework as subpar.  He has also produced at least league-average run production or better over 1112 plate appearances, hitting .262/.329/.426 for his career with 38 home runs (105 OPS+, 106 wRC+).

There are some red flags about Adames’ hitting, however.  Amidst an impressive .259/.332/.481 slash line over 205 PA last season, Adames’ .341 wOBA far outpaced his .295 xwOBA, and his 36.1% strikeout rate was one of the worst in baseball.  While Adames has gradually improved his hard-hit ball percentages over his three MLB seasons, he is still only middle-of-the-pack in the category.

These could be reasons why the Rays are open to moving a player with Adames’ talent and contractual control, not to mention the fact that Wander Franco is waiting in the wings as Tampa’s shortstop of the future.  In the event of an Adames trade, Joey Wendle could take over shortstop until Franco is ready to be promoted, which might not be until at least midway through the 2021 season considering that Franco has yet to even play Double-A ball.

Landing Adames might cost the Reds a significant trade package, however, and a case could be made that Cincinnati might not necessarily want a long-term player at the position, given how many star shortstops will be available in the 2021-22 free agent market.  (While the Reds are clearly working with a limited budget this offseason, their financial picture could be different next winter, post-pandemic.)  If this is the case, the Reds might just look for a one-year answer like Strange-Gordon, who could act as a stopgap so Cincy could either prepare to add a star free agent next winter, or allow more time for Jose Garcia to develop as the in-house candidate as the shortstop of the future.

“The Reds have at least checked in on Strange-Gordon,” according to Rosecrans, following a dismal season that saw the veteran hit only .200/.268/.213 over 82 PA for the Mariners.  It was the worst of a rough three-year stretch in Seattle for Strange-Gordon, and the Mariners unsurprisingly declined their $14MM club option on his services for the 2021 season.

The 32-year-old began his MLB career as a shortstop with the Dodgers but has only played a handful of games at short over the last four seasons, making him something of an imperfect fit as an everyday option.  It could be that the Reds might just use Strange-Gordon as something of a utilityman, giving him some time at shortstop but also rotating Garcia and the newly-acquired Kyle Holder at the position.

Cubs To Sign Trevor Williams

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The Cubs have agreed to a one-year, Major League deal with right-hander Trevor Williams, Evan Altman of Cubs Insider reports (Twitter link).  The contract will become official once Williams passes a physical.  Williams will earn roughly $2.5MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, and Altman notes that some portion of Williams’ salary is likely to be deferred.

After spending all five of his MLB seasons in a Pirates uniform, Williams will remain in the NL Central and now look to win a job at the back of Chicago’s rotation.  Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, Adbert Alzolay, and Alec Mills are lined up for the first four starting spots, though only Hendricks and Davies truly have their spots locked up.  Kohl Stewart was also recently signed to a big league contract, Shelby Miller to a minors deal, and at least one more arm is on the way, as ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets that the Cubs are expected more pitching before Spring Training opens.

Williams opted to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment from the Pirates back in November, with the Bucs’ move essentially acting as an early non-tender — Williams was projected to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and the Cubs control him through 2022 via that third arbitration year.  The righty received a fair amount of interest on the open market despite some rough numbers in 2020.

Williams posted a 6.18 ERA and only a 19.4 strikeout percentage (ranking in the 25th percentile of all pitchers) over 55 1/3 innings.  The home run problems that plagued Williams in 2019 worsened last season, as he allowed a league-high 15 homers.  Both the home run increase and a marked uptick in hard contact allowed has led to struggles for Williams since the start of the 2019 season.

During the 2017-18 seasons, however, Williams looked like a durable young pitcher on the rise, as he had a 3.56 ERA over 321 innings in Pittsburgh’s rotation.  Williams kept hitters off-balance despite a lack of a blazing fastball or big strikeout numbers, though since his SIERA was over a run higher than his 3.56 ERA, there might have been some good fortune involved.

Williams (who turns 29 in April) does have a solid track record when it comes to eating innings, which will certainly be valuable on a Cubs staff that may be juggling multiple arms at the back of the rotation.  Alzolay, Mills, and Stewart have only 215 1/3 combined big league innings on their resume.

Reds Acquire Kyle Holder

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The Reds are acquiring shortstop Kyle Holder in a trade with the Phillies, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Both teams have officially announced the trade, with cash considerations heading to the Phillies in return.  The move will free up a space on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster, so the Phils’ signing of Didi Gregorius could soon be officially announced.

The Yankees selected Holder with the 30th overall pick of the 2015 draft, and he proceeded to hit .264/.317/.350 over 1744 PA in New York’s farm system.  Holder then moved to the Phillies as a selection in December’s Rule 5 Draft, and as per Rule 5 stipulations, Holder will now have to remain on Cincinnati’s active roster for the entire season, or else the Reds will have to offer him back to the Yankees.

With Gregorius back in the fold, Holder was an expendable part in Philadelphia, but he could potentially play a larger role for the Reds.  Given Cincinnati’s lack of shortstop depth, in fact, Holder might even be in line for some action in the starting lineup, unless the Reds add a more established infielder between now and Opening Day.  To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Reds are still hoping to acquire Amed Rosario from the Indians, after reports linked Cincinnati to Rosario earlier this week.

While Holder hasn’t hit much in the minors and he has yet to play even Triple-A ball, he is a well-regarded defender whose glove may already be big league-caliber.  Holder has played mostly shortstop in the minors but has also seen time at second and third base, so he could serve as a valuable utility asset on the Reds’ bench.

Rangers To Sign Sam Gaviglio

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The Rangers are in agreement with Sam Gaviglio on a minor-league contract, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to major league spring training.

Gaviglio has seen big league action in each of the past four seasons, mostly as a member of the Blue Jays. Primarily a starting pitcher early in his MLB career, the right-hander has worked exclusively out of the bullpen the past two seasons. Gaviglio has never been much of a strikeout arm but he throws strikes and has induced ground balls at a decent clip. Altogether, the 30-year-old has tossed 296.2 innings of 4.88 ERA/4.37 SIERA ball at the highest level.

There’s plenty of room for Gaviglio to earn his way onto the Rangers’ active roster with a strong showing in spring training, especially if the club sees him as a potential starting option. Kolby Allard, the current favorite for the final spot in the rotation, was knocked around for an 8.80 ERA last year. Texas’ bullpen composition is also uncertain beyond the top four of Jonathan Hernández, Joely Rodríguez, José Leclerc and Taylor Hearn.

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