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Covid Notes: Jose Abreu, Andrew Miller

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Major League Baseball announced last Friday that just 13 of the 4,336 tests performed during the first wave of Spring Training intake testing revealed positive Covid-19 results: nine players and four staff members spread across 11 big league teams. The broad-reaching hope, of course, is that the league and players will be able to navigate a full slate of games as successfully or more successfully than they did during last year’s 60-game sprint. A few updates of note on players who are or were delayed in their arrival to camp…

  • Reigning American League MVP Jose Abreu will be away from the White Sox for the time being due to a positive Covid-19 test, the team announced Wednesday. GM Rick Hahn told Daryl Van-Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters that Abreu is asymptomatic and “believes he contracted a mild case of the disease in January, which is reinforced by the presence of COVID antibodies in additional testing.” Abreu is expected to join the White Sox “in the not-too-distant future,” Hahn added. The 34-year-old Abreu posted a monstrous .317/.370/.611  slash with 19 home runs and 15 doubles while appearing in all 60 games during 2020’s shortened schedule.
  • Cardinals lefty Andrew Miller detailed his own recent bout with Covid-19 to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Miller wasn’t one of the 13 positive tests for the league, as he tested positive 10 days prior to the date on which Cardinals pitchers and catchers were set to report. His arrival was then further delayed by a few days, in accordance with league protocols. The 35-year-old quarantined in his house’s guest room, away from his wife and children, thankfully dealing with only mild symptoms (namely a loss of smell). Miller did acknowledge that he’s dealing with some fatigue now, though he believes it is “basically from being shut down” while isolating in that bedroom. “I thought I did a pretty good job of protecting myself,” said Miller. “The vaccine is right around the corner but I didn’t quite make it there.”

Royce Lewis Diagnosed With Torn ACL, Will Undergo Surgery Friday

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The Twins announced Wednesday morning that shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2017 draft and one of their top two prospects, has been diagnosed with a tear in his right knee’s anterior cruciate ligament and will require surgery. The procedure comes with an expected recovery time of at least nine months, so it’s likely to wipe out his entire season. Lewis is slated to undergo surgery on Friday.

As Twins president of baseball ops Derek Falvey explained to reporters (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com), Lewis had been dealing with some soreness in his knee during offseason workouts. That may not have accounted for the tear, but he also recently slipped on some ice during the blizzards in Texas, where he lives during the offseason, which worsened the discomfort. It’s not known precisely when the tear occurred, but the end result is the same.

It’s a brutal blow for both the Twins and Lewis, who had a chance to break through to the Major Leagues in 2021. While his 2019 season between Class-A Advanced and Double-A didn’t go particularly well — combined .236/.290/.371 slash — Lewis rebounded from that performance with a huge showing in the 2019 Arizona Fall League. Through 22 games there, Lewis raked at a .353/.411/.565 clip, connecting on three homers and nine doubles while going 5-for-6 in stolen base attempts. That production earned him AFL MVP honors.

While some prospect rankings have seen outfielder Alex Kirilloff surpass Lewis as the Twins’ top prospect, that’s more a testament to Kirilloff’s progress than to a decline in Lewis’ stock. Lewis has been a consensus Top 30 prospect in all of MLB since the time he was drafted, landing at No. 17 on MLB.com’s 2021 rankings and No. 26 over at Baseball America.

The setback for Lewis is particularly poorly timed given the lack of a minor league season in 2020. While he spent the summer working out at the Twins’ alternate training site in St. Paul, the 2021 campaign would’ve given Lewis a chance to participate in a much more competitive setting and further his development as he continues on toward his Major League debut. He’ll now go more than two years between that huge showing in the 2019 AFL and his next at-bat in an actual game setting.

As a high school draftee, Lewis won’t even turn 22 until June, so youth is still on his side as he works to rebound from a devastating injury. Looking down the line, his ability to regain mobility in that knee will be particularly important, as there’s already been some debate about his eventual position. Lewis was drafted as a shortstop and has spent the bulk of his career there, though some in the industry feel he’d be better-equipped to play center field. He’s also spent a bit of time at third base.

There’s no guarantee that Lewis would’ve made it to the big leagues in 2021, although with some Double-A and/or Triple-A time under his belt, he’d at least have been a consideration in the event of an injury in the infield. He’s still a major part of the organization’s future, but Lewis will now have to navigate a substantial roadblock in his path to a Target Field debut.

Phillies Have “Checked In” On Jake Odorizzi

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The Phillies are among the clubs to have checked in recently on free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi’s asking price, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. He adds that the Angels have maintained some level of interest in the right-hander throughout free agency as well. There’s still no indication that Odorizzi is in serious talks with any individual team at this point.

It’s been a slow winter for Odorizzi, who was reported several weeks ago to be seeking a three-year pact worth around $15MM per year. A contract in that range would put the Phillies well north of the $210MM luxury tax threshold, as they’re currently about $8.5MM shy of that mark.

Given that proximity, it’s tough to see any match between the two sides without the Phillies exceeding the tax. That said, the penalty for surpassing the tax in 2021 wouldn’t be all that substantial for the Phillies — a 20 percent tax on their first $20MM worth of overages — and they’d quite likely dip back below the tax line in 2022 (assuming the system remains in place after another wave of collective bargaining talks). The Phillies will see Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera and several others come off the books next year; their 2022 tax obligations are currently in the $133MM range.

As for the fit with Odorizzi specifically, there’s little denying that he’d be an upgrade in the middle of the Philadelphia staff. Odorizzi’s 2020 season was more or less wiped out by a series of non-arm injuries — an intercostal strain, a line-drive to the chest and a blister on his pitching hand — but his 2019 season was quite strong. He started 30 games and tallied 159 innings with the Twins, pitching to a 3.51 ERA with a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate against a strong 8.1 percent walk rate. That showing prompted the Twins to make a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which Odorizzi accepted over some multi-year interest at lower annual rates.

Aside from last year’s series of injuries, Odorizzi has been among the game’s most durable starters. From 2014-19, he averaged better than 30 starts and 165 innings per season, logging a combined 3.88 ERA and 4.20 SIERA with strikeout and walk rates that were a bit better than league average.

The Phillies, meanwhile, will open the year relying on a strong one-two punch of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, with a solid Zach Eflin holding down the third spot on the staff. After that, top prospect Spencer Howard, the talented-but-inconsistent Vince Velasquez, and offseason signees Chase Anderson and Matt Moore will be the leading candidates to round things out. Howard struggled in his MLB debut last year but is still highly regarded. However, he also skipped Triple-A entirely and still has only six Double-A starts to his name, so the organization may feel he needs some more development time.

As for the Halos, they’re about $17MM shy of the luxury threshold, so there’s certainly room to add Odorizzi without crossing that threshold if that’s ownership’s goal. The Angels actually have a fairly deep mix of rotation options at this point, with Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Griffin Canning, Alex Cobb and Shohei Ohtani all likely to factor in early.

The Angels have been decimated by injuries in recent years, however, and that group of rotation options has some question marks within its ranks. Odorizzi certainly isn’t the ace for which Angels fans have clamored for the past few seasons, but he’d quickly become one of their top starting options were the two sides to strike a pact.

At this point, there’s no clear favorite for where Odorizzi will land. He has, at times, been connected to the Twins, Blue Jays, Giants and Red Sox (in addition to the two clubs listed here), but it’s a tough winter to be a mid-rotation starter on the market. Only four starting pitchers have agreed to multi-year deals: Trevor Bauer (Dodgers), Taijuan Walker (Mets), Mike Minor (Royals) and Chris Flexen (Mariners). Bauer was in his own class, of course, while Flexen is something of a unique case himself after a breakout showing in the KBO.

Quick Hits: Suarez, Anibal, Chatwood, Choo

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The Reds have failed to add an established shortstop since last season ended, leaving them with Kyle Farmer and Jose Garcia as the leading in-house candidates to handle the position at the beginning of 2021. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez played a significant amount of short at the start of his career, so perhaps he’d be able to emerge as the Reds’ solution there now, though manager David Bell said the club is not considering the 29-year-old for the spot, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relays. While the Reds “know” Suarez is cut out for the position, they have not had “any serious discussions about it yet,” per Bell. Putting Suarez at short could enable the Reds to move Mike Moustakas from second to third, where he has played for the majority of his career, or open up the keystone for Nick Senzel.

  • Free-agent right-hander Anibal Sanchez has rejected “multiple” major league offers since he held a showcase a month ago, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Sanchez is holding off on signing for the time being over concerns centering on COVID-19 and the protocols that accompany it, though he’s not opting out of the season as of now, per Heyman. The soon-to-be 37-year-old struggled last season as a member of the Nationals, with whom he logged a 6.62 ERA/5.03 SIERA in 53 innings.
  • Blue Jays free-agent pickup Tyler Chatwood revealed that he will work as a late-inning reliever in 2021, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays. Chatwood, who joined the Jays for a $3MM guarantee, has started in 143 of 197 career appearances, but the righty mostly had a rough time out of the Cubs’ rotation from 2018-20. Historically, though, there hasn’t much difference between Chatwood’s work in either role. The sample size is much larger as a starter, but he has a 4.38 ERA/.337 weighted on-base average allowed in that job versus a 4.53 ERA/.332 wOBA as a reliever.
  • Outfielder/designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo returned to his native Korea on Monday, signing a one-year, $2.4MM contract. But Choo indicated that he heard from up to eight major league teams that offered him more money than he’ll make in Korea, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. In explaining why he chose to go to the Korea Baseball Organization, Choo said, “I want to play in Korea because I want to play in front of my parents and I want to give back to Korean fans.” As Wilson notes, the 38-year-old Choo’s parents have never seen him play pro ball in person. They’ll now get that opportunity.

Rockies, Trevor Story Haven’t Discussed Extension

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Barring a contract extension, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story will be one of the most sought-after free agents on the open market next winter. The Rockies don’t expect to trade Story before the season starts, but they also haven’t discussed a long-term deal with the 28-year-old, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets.

“Yeah, it’s a contract year, but to me, every year is pretty much that way,” Story said.

This doesn’t mean the Rockies and Story won’t find a deal in the next few weeks, as extensions often take time to come together during spring training. However, odds seem to be against the Rockies retaining Story, especially after they let go of third baseman Nolan Arenado – who partnered with Story to form a tremendous left side of the infield – in a trade with the Cardinals this month.

The Rockies did save quite a bit of money in giving up Arenado, which could help them extend Story. But the Rockies don’t look as if they’ll contend in the near future, which might help prevent Story from inking a long-term pact with the club. If there isn’t a deal in place by the summer trade deadline, Story will be a prime candidate to wind up on the move.

Story is set to earn $17.5MM in 2021, when he’ll try to follow up on a stellar three-year run in which he batted .292/.355/.554 (124 wRC+) with 83 home runs and 65 stolen bases in 1,571 plate appearances. He also notched 20 Defensive Runs Saved and a 10.3 Ultimate Zone Rating at short during that span. The entire package was worth 13.5 fWAR, which ranked 10th among position players and placed Story right behind fellow shortstops Francisco Lindor and Xander Bogaerts.

As of now, Story and the Mets’ Lindor are scheduled to be part of a loaded class of shortstops in free agency next winter. The Dodgers’ Corey Seager, the Astros’ Carlos Correa, the Cubs’ Javier Baez, the Blue Jays’ Marcus Semien and the Twins’ Andrelton Simmons are also on track to reach the open market then.

Dodgers, Blue Jays Complete Ross Stripling Trade

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The Dodgers have acquired first baseman/outfielder Ryan Noda from the Blue Jays, Juan Toribio of MLB.com was among those to report. Noda was the second of two players to be named later (joining right-hander Kendall Williams) in the teams’ August trade centering on veteran righty Ross Stripling.

Now 24 years old, Noda became a pro when the Jays chose him in the 15th round of the 2017 draft. He has mashed in the minors since then, having combined for a .272/.422/.478 line with 40 home runs and 35 stolen bases in 1,292 plate appearances among the rookie, Single-A and High-A levels. However, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote last month that Noda “strikes out a lot for someone older than is usual for his level” and may only amount to a Quad-A type of player. Noda fanned in just under 30 percent of his plate appearances during his most recent minor league action in 2019.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/23/21

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Tuesday’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Braves have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Travis Snider, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The former Blue Jay will now reunite with Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who was the GM in Toronto during part of Snider’s tenure there. Snider was a star prospect early in his Jays tenure but hasn’t lived up to the hype in the majors. The 33-year-old owns a .244/.311/.399 line with 54 home runs in 1,971 plate appearances, and he hasn’t appeared in the bigs since he split 2015 between Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
  • The Mariners announced that they have outrighted Robert Dugger to Triple-A. The team designated the right-hander for assignment last week, which came a little over two months after it claimed him off waivers from the Marlins in December. Dugger, 25, pitched to a 7.40 ERA with a similarly poor 4.2 K-BB percentage in 45 innings as a Marlin from 2019-20. He’ll remain with the M’s as depth for at least the time being.

Andrew Friedman Discusses Dodgers’ Payroll

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Despite their high-spending ways and immense on-field success, the Dodgers managed to stay under the luxury-tax threshold in each of the previous three seasons. However, they’re going to surpass the limit in 2021. The mark stands at $210MM for this year, and Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/FanGraphs projects the Dodgers’ current tax payroll at almost $258MM. The Dodgers are on track to pay $13MM in taxes and go back 10 spots in next year’s draft, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes, though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that ownership has not pressured him to cut payroll for the upcoming campaign.

While Friedman said he expects trade talks to happen during the spring, “moving money” isn’t at the forefront for the club. And though Friedman doesn’t think the Dodgers’ current payroll is sustainable, he added: “We don’t ever view our payroll at any one moment in time. We really view it over  a two-, three-, four-, five-year period. So from where we are right now, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this is where we finished the year. And we’re okay with it and factored it in.”

Even after winning a World Series title last fall, the Dodgers haven’t rested on their laurels this offseason. They signed the top free agent available, right-hander Trevor Bauer, to a three-year, $102MM guarantee and then re-signed third baseman Justin Turner to a two-year, $34MM pact earlier this month. But Bauer may not be on the team in a year because of the opt-out clause included in his deal; meanwhile, longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, shortstop Corey Seager, outfielder/infielder Chris Taylor, and relievers Kenley Jansen and Joe Kelly could all become free agents next winter, so the Dodgers will be in position to trim their payroll in 2022 if that’s their plan.

Yankees Sign Justin Wilson

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11:45am: Wilson’s contractual terms are virtually identical to Gardner’s, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll be paid $2.85MM in 2021 with a $2.3MM player option for the 2022 season. If Wilson declines that option, the Yankees have a $7.15MM club option or $1.15MM buyout on him. The lone difference is that if Wilson exercises his player option for the 2022 season, the Yankees will pick up a 2023 club option worth the league minimum plus $500K. (The exact 2023 league minimum isn’t yet known due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement.)

As with Gardner, it’s quite unlikely that Wilson will exercise that player option, thus giving the Yankees a year of virtual league-minimum control over him — particularly when he’s guaranteed at least the $1.15MM buyout on the 2022 club option anyhow. But rather than a straight $4MM guarantee, this structure reduces the luxury hit to a more palatable $2.575MM.

Feb. 23, 10:40am: The Yankees have announced the signing of Wilson to a one-year deal. As with their signings of Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day, the contract contains a player option for Wilson and a club option for the Yankees that can be picked up if he declines. The player option structure will allow the team to artificially weigh down the luxury-tax hit on Wilson, as it’s considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes.

Feb. 15:  The Yankees and free-agent reliever Justin Wilson have reached a deal, pending a physical, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. Sweeny Murti of WFAN first reported the pact. The Yankees were in discussions with Wilson over the weekend and looked to be progressing toward a deal then, so it isn’t a surprise that the ACES client is joining the team.

This will be the second Yankees stint for Wilson, who began his career with the Pirates from 2012-14 before moving on to the Bronx in a trade for catcher Francisco Cervelli. The left-handed Wilson was highly effective in 2015, but the Yankees nonetheless moved on from him after that season in a trade with the Tigers. The Yankees acquired right-handers Chad Green and Luis Cessa (who are still on their roster) for Wilson, who has continued to perform well dating back to that deal. Along with the Tigers, the 33-year-old Wilson has suited up for the Cubs and Mets since the Yankees first parted with him.

Wilson has been effective everywhere he has pitched, evidenced in part by his 3.27 ERA/3.54 SIERA and above-average strikeout percentage (26.7) over 429 1/3 innings. The hard-throwing Wilson has also surrendered comparable numbers versus lefty hitters (.291 weighted on-base average) and righties (.284), so regardless of handedness, the Yankees can be confident he’ll keep holding his own in 2021.

Along with the aforementioned Green, Wilson will join Zack Britton and fellow free-agent pickup Darren O’Day in giving the team another proven reliever in front of closer Aroldis Chapman.

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