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Mets Make Initial Extension Offers To Lindor, Conforto

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MARCH 25: Lindor and the Mets remain in talks, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who tweets that “it feels like there’s a bit of optimism” they’ll reach an agreement.

MARCH 22: As of now, there isn’t much optimism that the Mets and Conforto will reach a deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

MARCH 21: Conforto told reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) that negotiations were ongoing, though didn’t commit on any specific details.  In regards to any deadline on talks, Conforto said “Ideally, I would not like” negotiations to extend beyond Opening Day.

MARCH 19: The Mets have made an initial extension offer to shortstop Francisco Lindor and to right fielder Michael Conforto, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. No deal is close with either player at this time. The New York Post’s Mike Puma tweets that there’s no real movement in talks at this point.

The initial offer to Lindor, according to Martino, clocked in slightly below $300MM in guaranteed money. Lindor and agent David Meter unsurprisingly countered with a number “well over” $300MM in total guarantees. While the team’s first offering didn’t begin with a three, Martino adds that the Mets are “almost certainly” willing to go to that $300MM mark to sign Lindor.

That said, a $300MM mark as long seemed something of a floor for Lindor in extension talks. Manny Machado received ten years and $300MM from the Padres two years ago — albeit at a younger age. In the 24 months since that time, we’ve seen Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM), Mike Trout (10 years, $360MM on top of his contract’s two preexisting years), Mookie Betts (12 years, $365MM) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340MM) eclipse the $300MM mark as well.

The length of the Mets’ offer and Lindor’s counter isn’t known, though given his age (27), it stands to reason that he could also be in line for a deal spanning a decade or more at $30MM-plus annually. The Harper and Tatis deals don’t come with that $30MM AAV, but that’s by design in Harper’s case, as he took a longer deal to deflate the AAV and reduce the Phillies’ luxury hit. The Tatis contract, meanwhile, includes all of his arbitration seasons, which naturally suppresses the annual rate. A Lindor deal, assuming it begins in 2022 — he’s already signed for the ’21 season — would be solely be buying out free-agent seasons.

There are no details known yet on the Mets’ offer to Conforto, though as a Scott Boras-represented All-Star who is set to hit free agency as well this winter, history suggests a deal could be tough to put together. It’s well documented that Boras clients largely tend to go to the open market, though the narrative that they “never” sign extensions is also something of an overstatement. Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jered Weaver and Elvis Andrus all inked extensions in the early 2010s, and more recent examples include Stephen Strasburg, Jose Altuve (his second extension) and Xander Bogaerts. There’s certainly precedent for an extension, even if it’s not commonplace.

Lindor has made known that he prefers to cut off talks once the season begins, although Boras declined to state there was any such endpoint with regard to Conforto. Asked by Martino whether April 1 (Opening Day) was a firm deadline for a deal, he replied: “Michael is focused on the season and his performance. Not addressing any contract questions.” That deliberately vague answer doesn’t tip his hand one way or another, but it’s semi-notable that Boras chose not to limit the negotiation period to a confined window, as many players and agents seem to do. Also notable is the fact that the aforementioned Strasburg extension (seven years, $175MM) came in May 2016 — well after Opening Day.

Mets fans are strongly hoping to see one or both players extended beyond the 2021 season, although even if no deal comes together, it’s always possible the club could still pull off a deal in free agency next winter. The Mets needn’t look beyond their own division to see a prominent example of a star player who couldn’t come to terms on an extension with his club but ultimately stayed there via free agency: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto.

Dodgers Select Jimmy Nelson

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Right-hander Jimmy Nelson has made the Dodgers’ roster, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports. With Nelson joining the team, it sent righty Tommy Kahnle, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list. The Dodgers also reassigned infielder Sheldon Neuse to minor league camp.

Nelson is in his second year with the Dodgers, who signed him to a $1.25MM guarantee going into 2020, but the former Brewer didn’t pitch at all last season after undergoing back surgery. It was the latest unfortunate injury for Nelson, whose career has gone off track since what looked like a breakout effort in 2017. Nelson suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder late that year, sat out all of the next season and then mustered just 22 innings of 6.95 ERA ball in 2019.

Because of his recent misfortune, the Dodgers declined Nelson’s $2MM option for this year. They brought him back on a minor league contract after that, though, and he’ll now open the season in their bullpen. The 31-year-old earned a spot with seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball and nine strikeouts against one walk this spring.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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Coming off an American League-worst 22-38 record, the Rangers are in for a transition year in 2021. Their new general manager will help shepherd the process.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After somewhat surprisingly staying on the fringes of contention for most of 2019, the Rangers looked to have an opportunity to compete for a spot in the expanded postseason in 2020. Instead, the team fell flat, leading president of baseball operations Jon Daniels to sell at the trade deadline. At the time, Daniels noted the organization viewed 2022 as “the more likely window” for a return to contention and suggested there’d be a drop in player payroll in the upcoming season.

That hinted at an offseason of change in Arlington, and the Rangers eventually saw the departures of a few of the franchise’s most recognizable faces. Ace Lance Lynn entered the offseason as one of the league’s most obvious trade candidates and indeed wound up on the move. Elvis Andrus, the lone remaining member of the franchise’s 2010-11 pennant winning teams, was shipped off to a division rival a few months later. Shin-Soo Choo, the team’s second-longest tenured player, hit free agency and eventually returned to his native South Korea.

Before any of that roster turnover, though, the Rangers made a key move in the front office. Former MLB pitcher Chris Young signed on to become the team’s new general manager in early December. Young’s experience as a player and in the league office, where he spent the past three years overseeing on-field operations, had also garnered him some GM consideration from the Mets. His ascent didn’t come out of nowhere, but it’s something of an outside-the-box hire to install a person with no MLB front office experience in such a significant role.

The Rangers will look to ease Young’s transition by pairing with him with Daniels, one of the longest-tenured executives in the league, who remains on hand as baseball ops president. The latter retains final say over the roster, although it seems Young is being groomed to assume a larger share of the responsibility as he gets more familiar with the ins and outs of front office work. The move is something of a modernization of the club’s front office, as the president – GM tandem has become commonplace throughout the league.

Just a few days after bringing Young aboard, the Rangers pulled off the long-awaited Lynn trade, sending him to the White Sox. In return, Texas picked up six years of team control over 26-year-old righty Dane Dunning (as well as low minors lefty Avery Weems). A former first-rounder and top 100 prospect, Dunning got to the majors last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He had some immediate success, tossing 34 innings of 3.97 ERA/4.33 SIERA ball in his first seven starts. That came against a weak slate of opposing lineups, but Dunning has long drawn praise for his secondary stuff and command. He’s not likely to be a future ace, but he’s a big league-ready arm to replace Lynn in the rotation. Dunning is expected to open the year working as a tandem starter to keep his innings in check, but the Rangers surely view him as a starting pitcher long-term.

Competent back-of-the-rotation production from Dunning would be of plenty of value to a Rangers’ rotation that, outside of Lynn, was downright awful in 2020. Corey Kluber, acquired from Cleveland during the 2019-20 offseason, got through just a single inning before going down with a shoulder injury. The Rangers predictably bought out his $18MM option at the start of the offseason. Also gone is Mike Minor, who was moved at last summer’s deadline amidst a down year.

The only other Rangers’ starters to throw at least 30 innings last season were Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Both were disappointments in the first season of respective multi-year contracts but will get an opportunity to bounce back. They’ll be joined in the rotation by Dunning and a pair of low-cost offseason signees, Kohei Arihara and Mike Foltynewicz.

Arihara received a two-year, $6.2MM contract to come over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (Texas also paid $1.24MM directly to his former team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, as a posting fee). Public scouting reports on Arihara generally paint him as a back-of-the-rotation type, with his low price tag suggesting teams viewed him in a similar light. The 28-year-old isn’t overpowering and never missed many bats in NPB, but he has a wide array of pitches and a history of throwing strikes. Perhaps just as importantly, Arihara threw 132.2 innings in 2020, far more than any pitcher managed in the United States last year. That should allow him to handle a fairly robust workload, no small matter with teams needing to build pitchers up dramatically to get through a 162-game season.

On the other end of the innings spectrum is Foltynewicz, who lasted just 3.1 MLB frames with the Braves before being designated for assignment. Foltynewicz spent the remainder of the season at the alternate training site after passing unclaimed through waivers, with no team willing to pick up the prorated portion of his $6.425MM salary. It was a rapid fall from grace in Atlanta, where Foltynewicz had tossed 183 innings of 2.85 ERA/3.77 SIERA ball two years prior. He was only OK in 2019, though, and the Braves moved on after he averaged 91.3 MPH on his fastball (down more than five MPH from his peak) during his only start in 2020.

At last year’s end, Foltynewicz unceremoniously qualified for minor league free agency as a player with more than three years of MLB service who had been outrighted off his team’s 40-man roster. He threw for prospective suitors in late January and the Rangers jumped in with an incentive-laden $2MM contract quickly thereafter.

It’s a straightforward, low-cost bet on a 29-year-old bounce back candidate. If Foltynewicz struggles again, Texas can cut bait at minimal cost. If he performs at something resembling his peak, the Rangers will have an interesting decision to make. As a player with between four and five years of MLB service, Foltynewicz remains controllable through 2022 via arbitration. If the Rangers truly believe they can contend by then, perhaps they hold onto Foltynewicz all year. Otherwise, they can turn to the midseason trade market and hope to acquire a mid-level prospect from a more immediate contender. (For what it’s worth, Foltynewicz’s velocity has reportedly been most of the way back to peak levels in Spring Training).

Each of Gibson, Dunning, Lyles, Arihara and Foltynewicz has had enough success in the past that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of them pitch well in isolation. But it’s highly unlikely all five perform at a high level, and the depth behind them is lackluster. Sixth starter Kolby Allard has a career 6.72 ERA in the big leagues. Kyle Cody had a shiny ERA (1.59) last year but had poor peripherals and didn’t work deep into his starts. That uncertainty attracted plenty of non-roster invitees with starting experience. Tyson Ross, Jharel Cotton, Sam Gaviglio and Drew Anderson are all in camp on minor league deals, as is former KBO starter Hyeon-jong Yang.

The bullpen is even more rife with opportunity. Former closer Rafael Montero is gone. Texas traded the right-hander to the Mariners in December for 17-year-old pitching prospect Jose Corniell and a player to be named later. Corniell’s a faraway developmental flier but looks like a fair return for two years of a good but unspectacular reliever.

Montero aside, the Rangers went into camp with most of their top relievers from last season. The past few weeks have been absolutely brutal, though. Jonathan Hernández and José Leclerc, perhaps Texas’ top two late-inning arms, are each facing extended absences due to elbow issues. Southpaws Joely Rodríguez and Brett Martin are also starting the season on the injured list, albeit with more minor maladies. Rodríguez, cheaply controllable via a club option through 2022, could be a midseason trade candidate if he returns to form early in the season.

Taylor Hearn and Wes Benjamin are locks for key roles in the season-opening bullpen, but the picture’s wide open beyond them. Josh Sborz, acquired from the Dodgers in a minor trade last month, will probably assume some sort of late-inning job. Brett de Geus, selected in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles, has to stick on the active roster (or MLB injured list) all season if the Rangers want to retain his rights. There’s plenty of space to stash him in lower-leverage innings if Texas is intrigued by his long-term upside.

That still leaves a lot of room for the Rangers’ non-roster invitees to earn bullpen jobs. Some of the depth options in the rotation could spill over as long relief or swing pieces. Right-handers Ian Kennedy, Nick Vincent, and Hunter Wood are all in camp and have been productive relievers in the not-too-distant past. Spencer Patton signed a minor-league deal on the heels of a solid run in NPB. Matt Bush, who signed a two-year minor-league contract in December 2019, is back from Tommy John surgery and seems to have pitched his way into consideration as well.

There’s a lot of uncertainty on the pitching staff, but things are a little more stable on the position player side. Joey Gallo is back and has the everyday right field job. The Rangers have listened to offers for the slugger since last summer’s trade deadline but seemingly never gotten close on a deal. Gallo remains controllable through 2022, so the Rangers still have some time to determine how they wish to proceed with him.

David Dahl will claim another outfield spot when healthy. The former All-Star signed with Texas for a modest $2.7MM in December, not long after being surprisingly non-tendered by the Rockies. Dahl has had myriad injuries in recent years and performed terribly in limited time in 2020, leading Colorado to move on. But he’s a former top prospect who has typically been an above-average hitter (even after adjusting for Coors Field) and is entering his age-27 season. Equally important given the Rangers’ competitive outlook, Dahl is controllable via arbitration through 2023. As with Foltynewicz and Gallo, Texas could decide to hold onto Dahl beyond this season if they hope to make a push in 2022.

Precisely where Dahl fits in the outfield remains to be seen. Leody Taveras made his MLB debut last season and held his own. Taveras seems likely to get continued run in center field, which would push Dahl to left. That’d work the latter into a corner outfield/DH mix that remains crowded, even after Choo’s departure.

That’s largely the product of two offseason trades. In December, the Rangers acquired Nate Lowe from the Rays in a deal that also swapped five prospects among the organizations. Lowe was consistently one of the best hitters in the minors during his climb through the Tampa Bay farm system. He slashed .330/.416/.568 across three levels as a 22-year-old in 2018, then followed it up with a .289/.421/.508 mark at Triple-A in 2019.

Despite that high minors productivity, Lowe only picked up 245 plate appearances at the highest level in Tampa. The Rangers should be in position to give him more regular major league work. Ronald Guzmán has hovered around replacement level over the past three seasons and might be a better fit off the bench. Lowe could also work in at designated hitter if the Rangers want to give Guzmán another opportunity at first, although it seems more likely Willie Calhoun will get the bulk of the DH time once he returns from a season-opening injured list stint.

There’s also the presence of former Athletic Khris Davis to consider. Davis was acquired in early February as part of the deal that sent Andrus to Oakland. The Rangers took on Davis’ $16.75MM salary in 2021 to spur the A’s to absorb just more than half of Andrus’ respective $14.25MM salaries over the next two seasons (as well as a potential 2023 vesting/player option). Swapping out Davis and Andrus puts more money on the Rangers’ books in 2021 but frees up some payroll space the following year, when Texas is more likely to contend.

Davis’ inclusion in the deal was financially driven, although he remains on the team and should get some DH at-bats once he recovers from a quad strain. From an on-field perspective, the more meaningful part of the Andrus return is catcher Jonah Heim. The 25-year-old has had a long climb up the minor-league ladder but had a very strong 2019 season in the high minors. Sean Murphy’s presence blocked his path to playing time in the Bay Area, but Heim could carve out a meaningful role with the Rangers this season. Jeff Mathis departed in free agency, leaving Heim, Jose Trevino and non-roster veteran Drew Butera as the favorites for playing time behind the dish in Arlington. (Well-regarded prospect Sam Huff popped three homers in 10 MLB games last year but has otherwise yet to play above High-A, so the Rangers would probably like to get him some more minor-league seasoning).

The infield is a little more set in stone. Even before trading Andrus, the Rangers were prepared to turn shortstop over to Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The 26-year-old is coming off a Gold Glove-winning campaign at third base and the Rangers will try their hand at pushing him up the defensive spectrum. Nick Solak rotated between second base and left field last season; the Dahl signing probably pushes Solak to the keystone regularly. That’d move Rougned Odor to third base, where he has gotten plenty of action this spring. Non-roster invitees Brock Holt (who will make the Opening Day roster) and Charlie Culberson have infield experience and could factor in at the hot corner if the Rangers are tired of Odor’s long-running struggles at the plate. Top prospect Josh Jung might’ve been an option in the early summer, but he was set back by a stress fracture in his foot that’ll sideline him for six-to-eight weeks.

It was a fairly active winter in Arlington, as the Rangers added some young players they hope can help them contend in 2022. They also achieved their previously-stated goal of dramatically cutting expenses after last year’s revenue losses. The Rangers opened the 2020 season with a $153.1MM payroll (prior to prorating), in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’re going into 2021 in the $88MM range. Selecting the contracts of a few of the many non-roster veterans in camp will likely push that figure over $90MM by Opening Day, but it remains a stark decline from Texas’ typical level of spending.

The team’s fans will surely hope ownership is more willing to splurge next winter after a season with gate revenues. The upcoming free agent class should include a handful of stars, and the Rangers have been speculated as a potential suitor for Dallas-Fort Worth natives Trevor Story and Clayton Kershaw. In the interim, the Rangers are likely in for another below-average season, but they should at least get some clarity about which of their young players could be part of the next contending team in Arlington.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Brewers Set Season-Opening Rotation

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The Brewers have set their season-opening rotation, manager Craig Counsell announced to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters on Thursday. Following the strong one-two punch of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, they’ll go with Adrian Houser, Brett Anderson and Freddy Peralta.

With Peralta earning the fifth spot, right-hander Josh Lindblom will begin the season in the bullpen, though Counsell is confident he’ll make his fair share of starts in 2021. Lindblom,  a former Dodger, Phillie, Ranger, Athletic and Pirate who starred in Korea from 2018-19, returned to the bigs last winter on a three-year contract worth upward of $9MM. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, the gamble didn’t yield great bottom-line results last season. The 33-year-old pitched to a 5.16 ERA with a minuscule 26.9 percent groundball rate in 45 1/3 innings, but that did come with some better underlying numbers – including a 3.88 FIP/4.09 SIERA and a 27.2 percent strikeout rate against an 8.4 percent walk rate.

Peralta, meanwhile, has spent the majority of his career as a reliever since he debuted in 2018. The 24-year-old had his best season to date in 2020, when he recorded a 3.99 ERA and a far more impressive 2.81 SIERA across 29 1/3 frames. Peralta also logged a tremendous 37.6 percent strikeout rate.

Thursday’s news means veteran righty Jordan Zimmermann, whom the Brewers signed to a minor league contract, will not factor into their rotation at the beginning of the season. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the former National and Tiger won’t stay with the Brewers. Counsell said they’re talking with Zimmerman and “trying to figure out what’s going to happen,” per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.The Brewers have to decide by Saturday whether to add him to their roster.

Kirby Yates Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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MARCH 25: Yates underwent successful Tommy John surgery, Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic tweets. He’ll miss the entire season.

MARCH 23, 10:15pm: Yates’ elbow was also an issue during the offseason, as the Braves backed out of a one-year, $9MM guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The Blue Jays also reduced his $8.5MM deal, per Rosenthal. Toronto knew at the time that Atlanta pulled its offer off the table.

3:38pm: The Blue Jays received some unwelcome injury news Tuesday, Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic was among those to report. Right-handed reliever Kirby Yates will likely undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season, outfielder George Springer has a Grade 2 oblique strain, and lefty Robbie Ray suffered a bruised elbow.

An elite end-of-game option with the Padres from 2018-19, Yates threw 4 1/3 innings last season as he dealt with elbow issues. That didn’t stop the Blue Jays from taking a one-year, $5.5MM chance on him in free agency this past offseason, but the would-be closer was diagnosed with a flexor strain Monday. It now looks as if Yates may never pitch for the club, which could lean on the likes of Jordan Romano, David Phelps, Rafael Dolis and Tyler Chatwood for saves in his absence.

The news on Springer and Ray also comes off as alarming, though neither injury appears especially serious. Toronto is hopeful that Springer, a former Astros standout who signed a whopping six-year, $150MM guarantee in the offseason, will be ready for Opening Day. Likewise, the Jays could have Ray ready for the start of the season. The team re-signed him to a one-year, $8MM pact in free agency.

Gio Gonzalez Announces Retirement

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Veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez took to Instagram this afternoon to announce his retirement from baseball after a 13-year Major League career. The 35-year-old Hialeah, Fla. native was in camp with the Marlins on a minor league deal and called simply donning the jersey of his hometown club one of his “biggest dreams.” However, Gonzalez also added that his “body wasn’t keeping up with [his] mind.” The lefty offered a heartfelt thanks to the Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, White Sox, Yankees and Marlins organizations.

Gio Gonzalez | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

“My heart and mind are finally at peace with my decision,” Gonzalez wrote at the conclusion of his post. “Here’s one last tip of the cap! I’m coming home to my wonderful family. I love u!”

Gonzalez was the No. 38 overall draft pick by the White Sox back in 2004 and had, to say the least, an unconventional career arc with the team. Chicago traded him to the Phillies in Dec. 2005 as part of the Jim Thome blockbuster, only to reacquire him a year later alongside Gavin Floyd in the trade that sent Freddy Garcia to Philadelphia. Gonzalez was close to big league ready at that point and looked as though he could make his debut with the team that originally drafted him … until the White Sox again traded him away — this time to the Athletics as part of the return for Nick Swisher.

Between his draft status, his inclusion in trades for three high-profile big leaguers and his annual placement on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list from 2006-09, it was clear that Gonzalez was highly regarded within the industry. It took him a bit to deliver on that talent, but he did so in a big way with a breakout showing in 2010, when he tossed 200 2/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball and solidified himself as part of the Athletics’ rotation.

That marked the first of six consecutive seasons in which the durable Gonzalez would make at least 27 starts and pitch to a sub-4.00 ERA. Oakland, as is often the case, traded him when he was on the cusp of arbitration eligibility, shipping him to the Nationals in return for a prospect package of four future big leaguers: A.J. Cole, Tommy Milone, Derek Norris and Brad Peacock.

Gonzalez was nothing short of excellent in Washington, finishing third in National League Cy Young voting in his first season as a Nat. He inked a five-year, $42MM contract extension with the Nats in Jan. 2012 and would go on to spend the next seven seasons in D.C. under the terms of that deal (which contained a pair of club options). Gonzalez’s first season with the Nationals was his best, but he finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting in 2017 — his final full year with the club. In parts of seven years there overall, Gonzalez racked up 1263 1/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball and helped the Nats to four postseason berths.

With the Nats out of playoff contention in 2018, they traded Gonzalez to the Brewers for a pair of prospects. Gonzalez was brilliant in five starts down the stretch with Milwaukee, helping pitch the Brewers into the postseason. He re-signed with the Brewers in April 2019 after being granted his release from a minor league deal with the Yankees organization and again pitched quite well, tossing 87 1/3 frames of 3.50 ERA ball.

In the 2019-20 offseason, Gonzalez had a full-circle moment when he signed a one-year contract to return to the White Sox. He finally took the mound with his original organization on July 26 last summer. Gonzalez was tagged for six runs in his first appearance, but he bounced back with 28 innings of 3.54 ERA ball for the South Siders the rest of the way.

Gonzalez will walk away from baseball as a two-time All-Star who twice finished sixth or better in his league’s Cy Young voting. Long one of the game’s more underrated starters, his career body of work stands as a testament to his consistency: in 1933 innings, Gonzalez went 131-101 a 3.70 ERA and 1860 strikeouts. He earned more than $73MM in a career valued by Baseball-Reference at 30.1 wins above replacement and valued by FanGraphs at 32.1 WAR. Gonzalez never won a ring but appeared in the postseason five different times, made a pair of All-Star Games and was always good for an entertaining interview. It was a strong career by any measure, and Gonzalez will head into retirement having left his mark on several fanbases and countless teammates and coaches around the sport.

Kyle Freeland Suffers Shoulder Strain

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March 25: Freeland will not require surgery, manager Bud Black announced Thursday, calling the initial reports from the team’s medical staff “encouraging” (link via Saunders). That said, Black also declined to provide a timeline, revealing only that Freeland will have more imaging performed “in a couple of weeks,” at which point the Rockies hope to be able to offer a more definitive timeline. Freeland will open the season on the injured list.

March 23: Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland exited his outing against the Athletics on Tuesday with a strained pitching shoulder, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Freeland left the mound in pain after throwing a pitch to the A’s Mark Canha, as Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets.

There is no word on how serious Freeland’s injury is, but it does look like one that could sideline him for at least the beginning of the regular season. A healthy Freeland would follow No. 1 starter German Marquez in the Rockies’ rotation, having thrown 70 2/3 innings of 4.33 ERA/4.95 SIERA ball last year. Those aren’t great numbers – especially compared to a 2018 effort in which Freeland put up a 2.85 ERA/4.35 SIERA in 202 1/3 innings and finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting – but they were markedly better than the 6.73 ERA/5.19 SIERA he recorded over 104 1/3 frames in 2019. The 27-year-old has followed last season’s bounce-back performance with seven scoreless innings and six strikeouts against one walk this spring.

If Freeland isn’t available to start the season, the Rockies will open with Marquez, Jon Gray, Austin Gomber and Antonio Senzatela as their top four. Ryan Castellani, Antonio Santos and Jose Mujica are also on their 40-man roster, but Dereck Rodriguez and Chi Chi Gonzalez are in the mix as NRIs.

MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2021

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In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ’faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season. Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that in 2019, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time.  70% of teams had hope in 2019 by my estimate.  Given the strange nature of the 2020 season, I skipped that year.  To make this assessment for 2021, I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is subjectivity involved on the borderline teams. I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2021 season with faith and hope: Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Braves, White Sox, Twins, Blue Jays, Brewers, Angels, Red Sox, Athletics, Cardinals, Rays, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, Indians, Phillies, Royals, Giants, Marlins

Teams that enter 2021 without faith and hope: Rangers, Pirates, Rockies, Orioles, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Mariners

Conclusion: 76.67% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2021.

Arguable teams:

  • The Royals have a 8.9% chance at making the playoffs, with a 78 win projection.  As a team that very clearly worked to get better in the offseason and could make further additions at the trade deadline, they belong in the contender category.
  • With a 5.2% chance at the playoffs and a 76 win projection, the Giants are a tough one.  With the Dodgers and Padres in their division, their playoff chances rest almost entirely on grabbing one of the NL’s two Wild Card spots.  Their offseason involved some decent veteran contracts, including an accepted qualifying offer for Kevin Gausman and almost $42MM in additional commitments.  I’d say there’s some faith and hope for their fanbase this year.
  • The Mariners have a projected 2.7% shot at the playoffs and a 74 win projection.  It wasn’t a particularly aggressive offseason, and one of their bigger acquisitions, Ken Giles, won’t pitch this year.  They did add James Paxton, Rafael Montero, and various smaller pickups.  This isn’t a playoff caliber team and I sense that they’ll truly go for it in 2022, so I am going to nudge them into the non-contender category.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 1.6% chance at the playoffs and a 72 win projection, and like the Giants they’re hurt by the division they’re in.  It’s a fairly veteran club, and Baseball Prospectus has them better than the Giants.  But with a significant payroll cut and a quiet offseason, this doesn’t seem like a team with playoff aspirations.  Arbitrary as it may be, I’m putting them in the non-contender category.
  • The Marlins have just a 1.3% chance at the playoffs, per FanGraphs, with a 71 win projection.  Baseball Prospectus says 70.  This club made the playoffs in 2020 with a season that extrapolated to about 84 wins.  They would have just missed the postseason if not for the expanded format.  The club’s quiet offseason doesn’t tip the scales much.  The Marlins did pick up Starling Marte’s option and didn’t lose anyone too significant.  This one could go either way, but based on last year I have to lean toward the contender category even if the projection systems call for major regression.

Carl Edwards Jr. Opts Out Of Braves Deal

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Right-handed reliever Carl Edwards Jr. has opted out of his minor league deal with the Braves and is now a free agent, tweets Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He’d been vying for one of the final spots in the Atlanta ’pen.

Edwards has allowed just one run and punched out eight batters in 8 1/3 innings this spring, but he’s also surrendered seven hits and walked six batters. Control has never been a strong point for the lanky right-hander, and his lackluster command of the zone this spring seemed to leave him behind fellow non-roster invitee Nate Jones in terms of the pair’s chances to make the roster.

Now 29 years old, Edwards was a key reliever for the Cubs from 2015-18, pitching to a combined 3.06 ERA with a hefty 33.9 percent strikeout rate over the life of 159 innings. His effectiveness dipped early in the 2019 season, however, and he’s been mired in something of a downward spiral since. Edwards has been tagged for 18 runs on 14 hits and 14 walks apiece over his past 21 2/3 big league innings, battling shoulder and forearm injuries along the way.

Ivan Nova, Hector Rondon Granted Release By Phillies

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Veteran right-handers Ivan Nova and Hector Rondon have requested and been granted their release by the Phillies, per a club announcement. They were both in camp on minor league deals and hoping to win roster spots. Both had out clauses in their deals.

The 34-year-old Nova was signed in late January — not long after president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski voiced a desire to add some veteran rotation depth on minor league pacts. However, his hopes of making the Opening Day roster were likely dashed just a few weeks after he inked his deal; the Phillies signed both Matt Moore and Chase Anderson to one-year, Major League contracts in early February. A poor showing in camp didn’t do him any favors, either. Nova yielded 10 runs on 15 hits and an uncharacteristic nine walks in 12 1/3 innings of work, striking out six along the way.

Rondon, 33, has been tagged for six earned runs on eight hits in seven innings, but he has a more encouraging 8-to-2 K/BB ratio in that time. The Phillies have some openings in their bullpen, but it’s widely expected that Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson are leading the pack of non-roster invitees competing for those remaining jobs. It’s plausible that one or both of Kintzler and Watson make the club. Both have March 24 opt-outs in their deals — the same as Rondon — but the team hasn’t announced a move regarding either pitcher yet. Assuming both Kintlzer and Watson triggered their out clauses, the Phils have until tomorrow afternoon to add them to the roster or grant them their release.

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