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Injury Notes: Realmuto, Grisham, Inciarte, Romine, Guzman

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J.T. Realmuto has been cleared for baseball activities, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury).  Realmuto’s tasks today included hitting off a tee and making 40 throws from 90-foot distances, as the catcher continues to work his way back from a right thumb fracture.  There is some optimism that Realmuto will be ready to go for the Phillies’ opener on April 1, with Salisbury writing that the club could take it easy with Realmuto’s playing time over the season’s first week or so, should Realmuto still need a bit of prep time.

A brief injured list to begin the season also isn’t out of the question for Realmuto, as with backdating, he would only miss the first six games.  Backup catcher Andrew Knapp would step in as the interim starter, though finding a second catcher could be a little complicated.  Rafael Marchan (the only other catcher on the 40-man roster) is battling a hamstring problem, so the Phillies could need to open up a 40-man space to find room for Jeff Mathis or Christian Bethancourt, both in camp on minor league deals.

More injury updates from around baseball….

  • Padres outfielder Trent Grisham left today’s game with what manager Jayce Tingler called “a slight strain in his hamstring.”  Grisham didn’t think the injury was terribly serious, but Tingler told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that Grisham will be re-evaluated tomorrow.  Grisham enjoyed a breakout season in 2020 that included a Gold Glove, and while the Padres have a lot of depth, they won’t be able to easily cover center field if Grisham’s hamstring lands him on the IL.  Jurickson Profar might be the top fill-in choice, as Profar has been getting some work in center field this spring.
  • Ender Inciarte has been hampered by a thumb injury that has kept him out of action since March 4.  Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that Inciarte is “progressing, but he’s not to the point he can go out and get a game at-bat right now, so we’ll have to see.”  As Burns notes, star prospect Cristian Pache was already looking like a strong bet to break camp with the team, and an Inciarte absence would all but assure Pache of a spot on the Opening Day roster.  Inciarte hit only .190/.262/.250 over 131 PA in 2020, and is now entering the last guaranteed year of his contract.  With Pache and another noteworthy prospect in Drew Waters both knocking on the door for MLB playing time, Inciarte might be in his final year in Atlanta even if he does have a bounce-back season.
  • Cubs catcher Austin Romine hasn’t played since the weekend due to a right knee sprain, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets.  While the problem isn’t considered to be too serious, there isn’t yet any plan for when Romine could return to action.  The veteran catcher signed a one-year, $1.5MM free agent deal to act as Willson Contreras’ backup this season.  Should Romine have to miss any time, veteran Jose Lobaton (in camp on a minors contract) would likely get the call, though the Cubs would have to make another move to add Lobaton to the 40-man roster.
  • Marlins righty Jorge Guzman is battling elbow inflammation and will be “out for a bit” of time, GM Kim Ng told the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson (Twitter link) and other reporters.  The hard-throwing Guzman was acquired as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade in December 2017, and he ranked 87th on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list prior to the 2018 season.  Guzman made his MLB debut in cup-of-coffee fashion in 2020, tossing one inning and allowing two homers.

Contract Renewals: Gallen, Lewis, Alonso, McNeil, Anderson

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As a standard course of business every spring, teams reach agreement on contracts with their pre-arbitration players.  Since pre-arb players have virtually no negotiating leverage, their salaries aren’t far beyond the MLB minimum ($570.5K), and most teams now adopt a particular formula for assigning modest raises to pre-arbitration players who have performed above and beyond expectations.

When a player doesn’t accept this agreement, it has no change on his contractual status with the team.  It just means that his contract is “renewed,” and the team will impose the player’s salary for the coming season.  For a further explanation of the renewal process, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd provided an outline in a YouTube video last year.

Why would a player not accept the terms of his team’s raise?  Often, it is just a matter of “principle,” as Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty (who had his last two pre-arbitration salaries renewed) said last year, as a player who excels during a season simply feels he is worth more than the minor raise a team is offering.  Occasionally, you’ll see a player look for a more substantive raise, as Mike Trout’s camp asked for a $1MM salary for the 2013 season, following a 2012 campaign that saw Trout finish second in AL MVP voting in his first full year in the big leagues.

While Trout didn’t get his $1MM ask, some clubs have indeed rewarded players with pre-arb salaries worth well above (by a few hundred thousand dollars, in some cases) the minimum, both as a nod to performance and perhaps as a way to continue good relations with a player and his agent in advance of extension talks.

Here is a list of players whose contracts have been renewed for the 2021 season.  As you’ll note, the members of this group have already enjoyed significant early-career success.

  • Zac Gallen: The Diamondbacks right-hander finished ninth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2020, and has a 2.78 ERA over 152 career MLB innings.
  • Kyle Lewis: The Mariners outfielder took a renewal on the heels of his Rookie Of The Year campaign.
  • Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil: The two Mets regulars took renewals.  As noted by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alonso’s 2019 NL Rookie Of The Year campaign got him a larger-than-expected salary bump to $652,521 for the 2020 season “as a goodwill gesture” from the team.
  • Ian Anderson: The Braves righty made a big impact in his first MLB season, with a 1.95 ERA over 32 1/3 innings.  Anderson also has the least amount of big league service time (0.094 days) of any player on this list.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Anderson will earn $575K while in the majors and $142,978 in the minor leagues.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Despite finishing under .500 during the regular season, the Astros made their fourth straight trip to the American League Championship Series in 2020. The Rays denied them a World Series berth, though, and the Astros have since lost one of their longtime stars to free agency.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest question the Astros faced entering the offseason was whether they would be able to re-sign outfielder George Springer, a three-time All-Star who was hugely instrumental in the team’s recent success. The Astros made Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected, and it doesn’t seem they put forth much of an effort to retain him after that. In the end, Springer exited Houston for another AL team – Toronto – for a six-year, $150MM payday.

Springer wasn’t the only noteworthy Astros outfielder who hit the market, as Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick joined him in seeking new contracts. Reddick remains a free agent, but the Astros did keep Brantley on a two-year, $32MM pact after deciding against issuing him a qualifying offer. It’s a reasonable deal when considering what Brantley brings to the table at the plate, though it’s not unwarranted to be concerned about his age (34 in May) and ability to play left field on an everyday basis. Brantley spent a large portion of last season as the Astros’ designated hitter as Yordan Alvarez battled knee problems, but that role won’t be available much this year if Alvarez’s health holds up. Assuming Alvarez is the regular DH, that would leave Brantley and Kyle Tucker as Houston’s corner outfielders.

With Springer out the door, the Astros did show offseason interest in other outfielders – Andrew Benintendi via trade, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Yasiel Puig in free agency – but didn’t come away with any outside additions on guaranteed contracts. As a result, they’re primed to start the season with the mostly unproven duo of Myles Straw and Chas McCormick as their top two center fielders. Straw’s a speedster and an adept defender, though he has almost no power and is coming off a brutal 2020 as a hitter. McCormick, meanwhile, has never played in the majors, but he does rank as Baseball America’s No. 12 Astros prospect.

One of the reasons the Astros are in position to gamble on untested center fielders is the overall strength of their offense. Brantley, Alvarez and Tucker can flat-out hit. The same has typically been true of second baseman Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa, even though both players endured down years in 2020. Third baseman Alex Bregman also wasn’t quite himself last season, but he remains one of the premier players in the game at his position.

That group should lead an above-average attack this year, but the rest of Houston’s offense isn’t quite as imposing. The team brought back a former longtime Astro in Jason Castro to team with Martin Maldonado at catcher. While those two probably aren’t going to combine for great offensive production, they’re well-regarded defenders who should make life easier on the Astros’ pitching staff.

First baseman Yuli Gurriel had a career year in 2019 before his output plummeted a season ago, yet the Astros still gave him a new one-year, $7MM contract in September. Such contract extensions so close to a player’s free agency are surprising, and from Houston’s perspective, the Gurriel deal continues to look like somewhat of a curious move. However, in fairness to the Astros, this past winter’s crop of free-agent first basemen was rather weak, leading them to keep around a familiar face on an affordable contract.

On the pitching front, the Astros will have to go a second consecutive season without ace Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in the fall. But even without Verlander last year, the Astros’ rotation – which consisted primarily of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy – still held up well. Most of that group is back this year, but unfortunately, Houston may have to go without Valdez for most or all of the season. Valdez enjoyed a breakout 2020, though he’s now dealing with a broken ring finger that will shelve him for the foreseeable future.

The Astros’ starting depth took yet another hit with the loss of high-end prospect Forrest Whitley, who will undergo TJ surgery and won’t pitch this year. The club did, however, help cover its bases earlier this month when it signed accomplished right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who will slot in along with Greinke, McCullers, Javier and Urquidy to open the season. Odorizzi’s two-year, $23MM pact includes a $6.5MM player option for 2023, which the Astros included in an effort to lower their luxury-tax commitment this season.

In light of the Odorizzi acquisition, there’s little wiggle room under the $210MM threshold for the Astros, who Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects are between $208MM and $209MM right now. Because of that, veteran minor league pickups Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. – whose contracts include $2.25MM and $1.15MM MLB salaries, respectively – are less likely to earn roster spots with the club.

Cishek was one of a few relievers the Astros brought in after their bullpen notched mediocre numbers last season. They showed interest in some big fish in free agency (e.g., Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Alex Colome and Joakim Soria), ultimately coming away with former Dodger Pedro Baez and ex-Ray Ryne Stanek. Baez has always prevented runs at a good clip, though he was more expensive than expected (two years, $12.5MM) after an injury-shortened year in which his average fastball velocity and strikeouts dropped to career-low levels. The 33-year-old is currently on the COVID-19 list, so it’s unclear whether he will be ready for the start of the season.

General manager James Click took a low-risk chance on Stanek, whom he’s familiar with from their time with the Rays. Click was part of the front office that used a first-round pick on Stanek in 2013, and the flamethrowing righty had a solid two-year stretch with the Rays from 2018-19 before Tampa traded him to the Marlins in the latter of those years. Unfortunately for Stanek, the 2020 season couldn’t have gone much worse, as he yielded eight runs and walked eight batters in just 10 innings.

Stanek is one of several Astros who could reach free agency next offseason, but he’s at the lower end of the totem pole in comparison to Correa, Verlander, Greinke and McCullers. Verlander is hardly in prime position for an extension, and there hasn’t been much buzz about Greinke, but Correa and McCullers have made it known they’d prefer to stay in Houston. Click has interest in keeping the pair, but if no extensions are in place by Opening Day, negotiations (if any are taking place) could cease until the end of the season. Correa’s on track to be part of the elite class of free agents who could approach a $300MM-plus guarantee, so the Astros will have their hands full in trying to keep him from hitting the market. McCullers won’t be nearly that expensive, but he’s just 27 years old at the moment and could command a lucrative multiyear payday.

Regardless of whether the Astros reach extensions with any in-house talent before the season, and even in spite of Springer’s exit, their roster once again looks strong enough to contend in the AL West this year. The Athletics won the division last year, but their roster doesn’t appear to be as strong as it was then. The Angels have made some improvements, but their offseason didn’t feature any enormous splashes, and it’s easy to be skeptical of a franchise mired in a six-year playoff drought. The other teams in the West – the Mariners and Rangers – will have difficulty getting to the .500 mark.

How would you grade the Astros’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

MLB To Experiment With Rule Changes In Minor Leagues

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The 2021 minor league season will see some new and altered rules at the various levels of playing, according to a statement from Major League Baseball.  “Consistent with the preferences of our fans, the rule changes being tested are designed to increase action on the basepaths, create more balls in play, improve the pace and length of games, and reduce player injuries,” the statement reads.

Many of these changes have long been discussed or even already used in other minor leagues — Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper notes that fans of the independent Atlantic League will recognize many of these rules adjustments.  It also isn’t necessarily the case that all of these new rules (whether in their current form or whatsoever) will ever appear at the MLB level, given the trial-and-error basis.

Triple-A baseball will see the size of the bases increased from 15 inches square to 18 inches square, a deceptively minor change that could end up having a notable impact on a game.  As the league’s statement reads, “the Competition Committee also expects the shorter distances between bases created by increased size to have a modest impact on the success rate of stolen base attempts and the frequency with which a batter-runner reaches base on groundballs and bunt attempts.”  In addition, larger bases will also reduce the chances of collisions on the basepaths.

Double-A baseball will experiment with a new rule that addresses defensive shifts, since going forward, “the defensive team must have a minimum of four players on the infield, each of whom must have both feet completely in front of the outer boundary of the infield dirt.”  While shifting has been part of baseball for decades, teams have been using shifts more often and in a more elaborate fashion over the last few seasons, to the point that seeing a club deploy four or even five players in outfield for a particular batter isn’t out of the ordinary.

This initial rule will keep infielders within the infield, and the statement also hinted at further limitations to shifts in the second half of the Double-A season: “Depending on the preliminary results of this experimental rule change, MLB may require two infielders to be positioned entirely on each side of second base….These restrictions on defensive positioning are intended to increase the batting average on balls in play.”

Step-off and pickoff moves are the primary focus of the Single-A rules changes, as in High-A ball, “pitchers are required to disengage the rubber prior to throwing to any base, with the penalty of a balk in the event the pitcher fails to comply.”  This was one of the rules instituted in the Atlantic League in 2019, as noted in MLB’s statement, and the altered rule “resulted in a significant increase in stolen base attempts and an improved success rate.”

The step-off/pickoff rules will be even more significantly changed for all Low-A leagues.  If there is one or more runner on base, pitchers can only throw a maximum of two pickoffs or make two step-offs per plate appearance.  The pitcher can attempt a third pickoff or step-off but the play must result in the baserunner being retired.  If the runner gets back to his original base on this third pitcher try, the play is called a balk and the runner advances anyway.  MLB’s statement said that the limitation could be further lowered to just a single step-off or pickoff attempt per plate appearance, seeing how the initial rule plays out.

The Low-A West league will adopt on-field timers “to enforce time limits between delivery of pitches, inning breaks and pitching changes.”  An even more interesting electronic element will be part of the Low-A Southeast league, as the Automatic Ball-Strike System will be used “to assist home plate umpires with calling balls and strikes, ensure a consistent strike zone is called, and determine the optimal strike zone for the system.”

AL West Notes: Correa, France, Athletics

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Astros shortstop Carlos Correa projects as one of the top free agents on next year’s market, though both he and the team have made clear that they hope to hammer out an extension before he reaches the market. Correa told reporters today that those talks have yet to begin, noting that the finger injury to Framber Valdez and the front office’s subsequent negotiations with free agents may have delayed the beginning of talks (Twitter link, with video, via Mark Berman of FOX 26). Correa was understanding of that and remains motivated to talk contract, though as is often the case with extension candidates, he placed a firm Opening Day deadline on any talks for a new deal. Houston GM James Click said in late February that the Astros “want to have some conversations” with Correa’s camp to see if the two sides can align on a deal to keep him long term.

Astros fans may also be interested to hear skipper Dusty Baker talk of Correa as a potential leadoff candidate in 2021. Correa hit leadoff today and told reporters he’s excited for the possibility of taking on that challenge (video link via Berman). Leadoff duties have traditionally been George Springer’s department in Houston, of course, but his departure creates a vacancy atop the lineup.

More from the division…

  • Ty France may not have a set position with the Mariners, but the team plans to get him 500-plus plate appearances in 2020, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. As Divish notes, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto tried to pry France away from the Padres on multiple occasions before successfully landing him as part of the Austin Nola trade last summer. Manager Scott Servais spoke glowingly of France’s work so far this spring, and Divish suggests that France could get semi-regular work at designated hitter while also seeing occasional starts at third base, second base and first base to keep the Mariners’ infielders fresh. France is 8-for-13 with a pair of doubles, three homers, a walk and no strikeouts this spring. He batted .305/.368/.468 in 155 big league plate appearances last year and is a career .372/.454/.713 hitter in 458 Triple-A plate appearances (albeit in a supercharged Pacific Coast League offensive environment).
  • The Athletics will continue to build up southpaw Cole Irvin as a starting pitcher in camp, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Oakland acquired the lefty from the Phillies in exchange for cash over the winter, and although the bulk of his work in the Majors has come out of the ’pen, the A’s plan to continue building him up to serve as a possible depth option behind their current rotation. Only three of Irvin’s 19 Major League appearances with the Phils were starts, but 41 of his 43 career appearances in Triple-A came out of the rotation. The 27-year-old carries a 3.07 ERA at that level, and while his 18.8 percent strikeout rate is a good ways shy of average, his 4.7 percent walk rate is excellent.

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Angels’ Gerardo Reyes, Brendan McCurry To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Angels right-handers Gerardo Reyes and Brendan McCurry will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2021 season, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). Reyes was already known to be dealing with a UCL sprain and was recently removed from the 40-man roster. McCurry, a former Astros and Athletics farmhand, signed a minor league deal with a spring training invite over the winter.

Reyes, 27, came to the Halos in the August trade that sent veteran catcher Jason Castro to the Padres. He appeared in one game this spring but departed early. The righty didn’t pitch in the Majors for the Padres or Angels last season but did log 26 frames with San Diego in ’19. He was knocked around for a 7.62 ERA in that time, but Reyes also showed a blistering heater that averaged 97 mph while punching out 32.5 percent of opponents (against a passable 9.4 percent walk rate).

Reyes has kept his ERA at 3.57 or better in every minor league stop since 2017, steadily increasing his strikeout rate along the way. A second straight season without pitching in a conventional game setting won’t do him any favors, but he’ll give the Angels a potential power arm out of the ’pen in 2022 and beyond, assuming he successfully rehabs the injury.

McCurry, 29, has yet to make his big league debut but carries a career 4.03 ERA with quality 26.2 percent strikeout and 7.2 percent walk rates in 205 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball. He’s slated to be a minor league free agent again next winter.

The Angels announced a few other injury updates, including a hip injection for righty Luke Bard that will slow his spring progression. He’s expected to be re-evaluated in 72 hours, tweets MLB.com’s Jack Harris.

Central Notes: Bryant, Odorizzi, Reds, Gose

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Kris Bryant has continued to express openness to a contract extension with the Cubs, but he reiterated today there’s not yet been any discussion between his representatives and the organization (via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). The 29-year-old isn’t ruling out the possibility of a long-term deal coming together eventually, even though he’s currently on track to reach free agency after the season. “I’m not looking at it as my last year (as a Cub),” Bryant said (via Mooney). “Who knows what year it could be? I could have 10 more years here. Who knows? I could come back as a coach. I could live in Chicago. I don’t know.” Regardless of what happens after 2021, it’s clear Bryant will open the season with the Cubs after an offseason of trade rumors didn’t result in a deal.

Elsewhere in the game’s central divisions:

  • Jake Odorizzi is moving on from the Twins after a three-year run in Minnesota, but the right-hander said during yesterday’s Astros introduction that the Twin Cities “hold a special place” in his heart and left the door open for a return down the road (link via the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Phil Miller). “I loved my time in Minnesota,” said Odorizzi, whose two-year deal with the Astros became official this week. “Maybe there’s a time to circle back after this stint [in Houston] is done.” Odorizzi noted that he originally hoped a new deal would come together, but he saw the writing on the wall when the Twins inked fellow free agent J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM deal earlier in the winter.
  • A few teams have announced their intention to start out with a six-man rotation. That doesn’t seem to be on the table for the Reds, who are going to open the season with a five-man starting staff, manager David Bell said (via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon). Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle are obvious locks, while Bell suggested Wade Miley is likely to get a shot at a rebound season as a starter. That leaves Michael Lorenzen, Tejay Antone, Jeff Hoffman and José De León in a battle for the final job. The pitchers who don’t earn the season-opening rotation spot figure to start off as multi-inning relief options.
  • Reliever Anthony Gose is impressing the Indians as a non-roster invitee, writes Zack Meisel of the Athletic. Continuing to throw in the upper-90’s and now incorporating a slider, Gose has struck out four without issuing a walk through his first three Cactus League innings. The former outfielder has attracted the attention of a few teams since moving to the mound in 2017 but has yet to get back to the big leagues as a pitcher. Continued strike-throwing is the key for Gose, who walked an untenable 21.5% of opposing hitters during his most recent minor league action in 2019.

AL West Notes: Astros, Castro, A’s, Fiers, Rangers

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Jason Castro has a strained oblique, Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The injury has kept the veteran backstop out of Grapefruit League action since last Tuesday, but Castro did return to practice today, per the Houston skipper. There’s no indication at this point that the issue threatens his availability for Opening Day. Castro reunited with his original organization on a one-year deal in January. Martín Maldonado and Garrett Stubbs are the other catchers on the Astros’ 40-man roster.

More from the American League West:

  • Athletics right-hander Mike Fiers felt some back discomfort in his most recent bullpen session, manager Bob Melvin said (via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). It isn’t clear whether this will affect Fiers’ readiness for Opening Day. Oakland brought back the veteran starter on a one-year deal over the winter. Melvin also said the A’s expect Frankie Montas to be ready for the start of the regular season after a bout with COVID-19 set him back early in camp, Kawahara writes.
  • The Athletics have not been in attendance for any of Yoenis Céspedes’ recent showcases, per Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News. “We’re not in position, unfortunately (to sign him),” Melvin said, via Rubin. Céspedes spent the first two-plus seasons of his career in Oakland, finishing runner-up in 2012 AL Rookie of the Year voting. The 35-year-old slugger is looking to return to the big leagues in 2021 after opting out of last season after eight games due to COVID-19 concerns.
  • Non-roster invitee Matt Bush has a good chance to earn a spot in the Rangers’ season-opening bullpen, writes Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. That’s especially the case now that Jonathan Hernández will open the year on the injured list. After a strong two-year start to his MLB career from 2016-17, Bush had a rough 2018 season. He struggled for much of the year, then suffered a UCL tear that September. After rehab failed to correct the issue, Bush underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2019. The timing of that procedure kept him out through the end of 2020.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks went into the 2020 campaign aiming for a playoff spot, but they wound up going 25-35 and finishing last in the National League West. The D-backs nevertheless had a rather modest offseason and now look as if they’ll extend their playoff drought to four years in 2021.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

With last season on the verge of concluding, Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall suggested to reporters that the club was unlikely to make significant changes on the roster, in the dugout or in the front office. He also called it “far-fetched” that Arizona’s 2021 payroll would match the $124MM that it was projected to spend last year before the pandemic sliced 102 games off the schedule. Hall wasn’t kidding. The Diamondbacks made little in the way of notable moves over the winter, and they’re set to enter this season with a payroll of $98MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Right-handers Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard, two of the three major league free agents the Diamondbacks signed, will play important roles in their bullpen this season after signing low-cost one-year deals. It’s no surprise the Diamondbacks made improving the unit a priority, as it finished 18th in the league in ERA and 25th in K-BB percentage in 2020. Soria and Clippard – a Diamondback in 2016 – are up there in age (36), but they carry quality track records and didn’t show any clear signs of slowing down last season. They and holdover Stefan Crichton look like the top three relievers in a righty-heavy Arizona bullpen, while experienced minor league signings Ryan Buchter, Anthony Swarzak and Chris Devenski are among those vying for spots behind them.

Arizona’s bullpen did struggle in 2020, but its rotation was even worse. Even though the group logged an unappealing 5.04 ERA, the Diamondbacks didn’t make any outside pickups during the offseason.

They’re stuck with Madison Bumgarner, who bombed during the first season of his five-year, $85MM contract, and left to hope he’ll return to something resembling his San Francisco form in 2021. They’ll also need a rebound from Luke Weaver, who was outstanding in 2019 before forearm issues cut him down that season. The 27-year-old recorded a hideous 6.58 ERA in 2020, but that did come with a better SIERA (4.52) and career-high fastball velocity (94.1 mph). Caleb Smith walked almost eight batters per nine during a brief 14-inning season between Miami and Arizona, yet he’s slated to open the season in the D-backs’ rotation after coming over in the teams’ Starling Marte trade over the summer. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are also sure bets, and deservedly so in light of the production they offered in 2020. However, Kelly’s season ended in early September when he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which is never an easy procedure for a pitcher to overcome. Nevertheless, having exercised Kelly’s $4.25MM club option at the beginning of the offseason, the Diamondbacks seem confident he’ll bounce back.

The Diamondbacks’ offense didn’t fare much better than their pitching in 2020, as they finished 19th in runs and 26th in wRC+. Right fielder Kole Calhoun may have been their best hitter then, but he’ll miss the start of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Furthermore, before temporarily losing Calhoun, Arizona didn’t do much of anything to improve its offense. Lone free-agent newcomer Asdrubal Cabrera will provide versatility around the infield and give the Diamondbacks a switch-hitter who’s capable of roughly average offense, both of which are pluses, but he isn’t someone who’s going to move the needle much for the club.

To a large degree, the Diamondbacks are betting on rebound efforts and breakouts to lift their offense this year. Center fielder/second baseman Ketel Marte was an MVP-caliber player in 2019, but he was merely ordinary last season. Meanwhile, third baseman Eduardo Escobar and catcher Carson Kelly registered disastrous numbers after impressing in 2019. Calhoun, first baseman Christian Walker, shortstop Nick Ahmed and left fielder David Peralta each put up above-average production last year, though there’s no fearsome presence in that group. The lack of standout talent could leave room for some of the D-backs’ less experienced hitters (e.g., Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith) to establish themselves this season. Rojas has thrived this spring, albeit over a small sample of at-bats, and has a chance to start 2021 as the team’s No. 1 second baseman. Varsho and/or Smith could claim a roster spot with Calhoun on the shelf.

In looking at the Diamondbacks’ roster and division, there’s a strong case general manager Mike Hazen & Co. should have sold, not sit on the fence, during the offseason. PECOTA projects Arizona will win 79 games, which appears to be a reasonable figure and would place them a distant third in the NL West behind Los Angeles and San Diego – both of which are legitimate World Series contenders. Of course, if the Diamondbacks are out of contention as the trade deadline approaches, they could at least shop some of their veterans (Soria, Clippard, Kelly, Cabrera, Calhoun and Escobar, to name several) in an effort to further bolster a farm system that ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranks 10th in the game.

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