Three Possible Landing Spots For Christian Vázquez
Fresh off his second World Series title, long-time Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez is a free agent for the first time in his career. With Willson Contreras inking a five-year, $87.MM deal with the Cardinals, Vazquez is arguably the top free agent catcher left on the board, rivaled by Sean Murphy in the trade market. This position has left Vazquez with a lengthy list of suitors, including the Twins, Padres, D-Backs, Guardians, Diamondbacks, and Giants.
Vazquez, a career .261/.310/.386 hitter, had a two-sided 2022 season. In Boston, the righty hit .282/.327/.432 with eight homers and 20 doubles. However, after being traded to Houston, Vazquez struggled, hitting a weaker .250/.278/.308 while splitting time with Martin Maldonado. Nevertheless, from 2019-2022, the backstop hit a solid .271/.318/416 (95 wRC+). Additionally, Vazquez has been solid behind the plate, having thrown out 34% of runners since his debut in 2014, ranking in the 71st percentile pop time to second base during the 2022 season, and has drawn plus framing marks from publicly available metrics via Statcast, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. With this solid season and a strong overall career, MLBTR predicts that Vazquez will earn a contract in the three years, $27MM range.
As for Vazquez’s free agent preferences, the 32-year-old has told reporters that a starting role and contending are at the forefront when determining his next home. With those two factors in mind, along with his strong history, here are some potential landing spots for the veteran.
Beginning with one of the more active teams during this year’s free agent period: the Padres. San Diego primarily relied on a tandem of Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro in 2022, with Friars’ backstops hitting a combined .249/.303/.350 with a middle-of-the-pack wRC+ (88). With the Padres opting to non-tender Alfaro, the club is currently projected to start the 2023 season with Nola and Luis Campusano behind the dish. Neither player should necessarily be a roadblock to surveying the market for a team as aggressively motivated to win now as San Diego.
More importantly, the Padres have not been afraid to open their wallet, most recently signing former Red Sox teammate Xander Bogaerts to a colossal 11-year, $280MM deal. San Diego also offered Aaron Judge $400MM and Trea Turner $342MM, before the two players signed with other clubs. A win-now team searching for a catching upgrade, the Padres appear a logical candidate to pique Vazquez’s interest while simultaneously outbidding competitors.
Cleveland is another potential landing spot for the veteran, with Austin Hedges reaching free agency and leaving the unproven Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor as the only backstops on the 40-man roster. Naylor is a highly-regarded prospect, but turning everyday reps behind the dish over to a 23-year-old could be too risky for a team looking to defend their AL Central title. The Guardians posted the second-lowest combined wRC+ for catchers last season (55), utilizing a soft-hitting duo of Austin Hedges and Luke Maile, although Hedges is regarded highly for his defensive work. Vazquez’s addition would improve offensive output while maintaining a high defensive level for the club.
The Guardians have already made one significant free agent addition this offseason, signing Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal with an opt-out after the first season. The team also made an offer for first baseman Jose Abreu, but couldn’t reach the $60MM threshold that the Astros closed in on. A team known for their low budget, the Guardians are also heavily involved in the Murphy trade market but will likely remain a player for Vazquez’s services if his price is not out of their comfort zone.
A third potential (wildcard) team for the backstop is a former AL East rival, the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay primarily relied on Francisco Mejia, who was widely considered one of baseball’s top minor leaguers, ranked as high as fifth in Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospect ranking prior to the 2018 season, during the 2022 season. However, after a solid 2021 season (.260/.322/.417), Mejia struggled in 2022, hitting a meager .242/.264/.381. Poor performance and injuries led Tampa Bay to acquire Christian Bethancourt from Oakland in early July. Bethancourt would perform marginally better, hitting .255/.265/.436 in 151 plate appearances with the Rays.
As a team, Rays’ catchers hit a combined .224/.248/.373 with a below-average wRC+ (78). Vazquez represents an offensive upgrade to these two players, albeit with a higher price point than both Bethancourt and Mejia, who are both on their rookie deals. Nevertheless, Mejia still has one MiLB option remaining, and Vazquez and Bethancourt have experience, although limited, in the field with Bethancourt playing 249 innings at first base during the 2022 season. Admittedly, this landing spot is the least likely of the three.
While the Padres and Guardians present more logical landing spots for Vazquez, competitive teams, like the Rays, may look to shuffle their roster to add a proven veteran backstop talent. Minnesota recently offered Vazquez a contract, and there are sure to be many teams involved in free agent discussions with the catcher as the offseason continues.
Pitching Notes: Cardinals, Eovaldi, Rodón
Currently boasting a staff of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals were not predicted to be heavily involved in the free-agent starting pitcher market this offseason. Nevertheless, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is aware that, “a year from now, we know we’re going to need starting pitching,” per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mozeliak added that the team has recognized that they will have to replace or re-sign four starters after the 2023 season.
Wainwright, who re-signed with St. Louis on a one-year, $17.5MM deal with incentives, has already stated that the 2023 season will be his last. Additionally, Mikolas, Flaherty, and Montgomery will all be free agents at the conclusion of the 2023 season. Matz and Hudson are the only starters with a contract for the 2024 season, with Matz signed through the 2025 season and Hudson a free agent after 2024. Goold reports that the Cardinals “plan to explore contract extensions with at least two of the starters who are unsigned beyond 2023,” with Mikolas being the most likely candidate.
The Cardinals are currently projected to enter the 2023 season with a payroll of $171.9MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, after the season, they are forecasted by Roster Resource to have only $94MM in commitments — giving them ample room to add to their team. Despite this financial freedom, Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “have some young starters coming,” perhaps signaling a desire to avoid free agent starters in order to fit within the team’s budget.
Lefty Matthew Liberatore (the Cardinals’ No.4 Prospect) struggled in his Major League debut during the 2022 season, pitching to a 5.97 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with a 17.4 SO% and 11.2 BB%. He didn’t fare much better in his second season at Triple-A Memphis, pitching to a 5.17 ERA in 115 innings with a 23.5 SO% and 8.3 BB%. Nevertheless, Liberatore is only 23 years old and still has plenty of time to settle in at the Major League level. Additionally, Gordon Graceffo (Cardinals’ No.3 Prospect), Tink Hence (No.6), and Michael McGreevy (No.9) all are expected to make their debuts during the 2024 season, with Graceffo and McGreevy earning promotions to Double-A Springfield during the 2022 season, while Hence spent the entire season with Single-A Palm Beach.
More pitching-related items from around baseball….
- According to WEEI‘s Rob Bradford, the Red Sox do not view former All-Star Nathan Eovaldi as a top priority in their starting rotation search. Bradford adds that other teams are showing more interest in Eovaldi than the level currently displayed by Boston. The Mets were previously rumored to be in on Eovaldi, but their recent five-year, $75MM deal with Kodai Senga likely takes them out of the running for the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Eovaldi joined Boston during the 2018 season, with the righty helping them win the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox rewarded the starter with a four-year, $68MM contract that resulted in 407 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA baseball, with a solid 24.4 SO% and strong 5.6 BB%. Despite being limited to 20 starts in 2022 due to low back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, Eovaldi pitched to a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings with a 22.4 SO% and 4.4 BB%.
- In other St. Louis news, the Cardinals have reportedly entered the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. With Rodon seeking a seven-year deal and St. Louis having only two starters signed for the 2023 season, the Cards might look to join the bidding war for the two-time All-Star’s services. Rodon, 30, signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants during the 2021 offseason, with an opt-out after the first year. Brushing aside injury concerns and making a career-high 31 starts, the southpaw pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 178 innings, with an absurd 33.4 SO% and strong 7.3 BB% before opting out of the contract at the end of the season. For his part, Mozeliak has remained coy, stating that while the team does “have some resources available,” but that he wouldn’t “believe many of the rumors you’re reading right now,” per Derrick Goold.
Frank Schwindel Signs With NPB’s Orix Buffaloes
Former Cub Frank Schwindel has reportedly signed a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s NPB. Schwindel had been playing for the Águilas Cibaeñas in the Dominican Winter League. Sung Min Kim had previously tweeted that the two parties were discussing a deal, and Cibaeñas general manager Ángel Ovalles recently told reporters that the 30-year-old had signed with the Buffaloes and was leaving the team.
Designated for assignment in July 2021 by Oakland, Schwindel was picked up by Chicago and immediately sent to Triple-A Iowa. However, after Anthony Rizzo was traded to the Yankees, Schwindel received a call-up and never looked back. During the second half of the 2021 season, he slashed a robust .342/.389/.613, with a strong 15% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 13 homers in 239 plate appearances. This tremendous output, albeit in a limited sample size, earned him minor consideration in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting.
Schwindel opened the 2022 season with the Cubs but struggled and was shuffled between Iowa and Chicago. He also missed time with lower back strains in May and June. His poor performance led to the Cubs designating him for assignment in mid-September, and he was granted his unconditional release. Schwindel finished the 2022 season hitting .229/.277/.358 with eight homers in 292 plate appearances. Notably, his strikeout rate increased to 19.9%.
With a poor 2022, Schwindel might have been hard-pressed to find anything beyond a minor league deal with an MLB team this winter. Instead, the right-handed hitter will head to Japan in search of the magic he captured during the 2021 season. With the Buffaloes, he will likely earn more guaranteed money and ample opportunity to rediscover his swing, perhaps eventually exploring a return to North American baseball.
Guillermo Heredia Signs With KBO’s SSG Landers
The SSG Landers of the Korea Baseball Organization have announced that they have signed outfielder Guillermo Heredia (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Heredia will earn $900K, with the possibility of earning an additional $100K in performance bonuses.
Heredia, who was projected to make $1.1MM in his final trip through the arbitration process, was non-tendered by the Braves in November. A veteran of parts of seven Major League seasons, Heredia joined Atlanta after the 2020 season, having been designated for assignment by the Mets, and would go on to win a World Series with the club.
Heredia appeared in 74 games (82 plate appearances) with the Braves during the 2022 season. However, he hit a poor .158/.220/.342 with a colossal 39% strikeout rate and below-average 7.3% walk rate. While never a major factor at the plate, with a career .231/.310/.346 line, 20% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate, the right-handed hitter has a history of above-average fielding, having accrued at least five Outs Above Average (OAA) in five of his seven seasons. Nevertheless, during the 2022 season, Heredia earned 0 OAA while posting 1 Defensive Run Saved and a 0.8 Ultimate Zone Rating.
With the Braves hosting an outfield of three-time All-Star Ronald Acuna Jr., reigning Rookie of the Year Michael Harris, Eddie Rosario, and two-time All-Star Marcell Ozuna, Heredia was evidently deemed non-essential by the club. Instead, Heredia, who turns 32 years old in January, will make the transition overseas. He will earn a raise compared to a minor league salary and can explore a return to MLB if his time in South Korea proves fruitful.
Quick Hits: Kiermaier, Dodgers, Red Sox, Marlins, Bellinger, Bell, Rays, Diaz, Reds
Kevin Kiermaier is off the market after agreeing to a deal with the Blue Jays earlier today, and the former Gold Glover was drawing interest elsewhere on the market. The Dodgers “were in the running down to the end” on Kiermaier, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), as Kiermaier was presumably being eyed as the left-handed hitting, center field replacement for Cody Bellinger. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is no stranger to Kiermaier, as Friedman was the Rays’ general manager when Kiermaier began his career in Tampa Bay.
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is also a former member of Tampa’s front office, but Kiermaier and the Sox had only “periphery discussions” about a possible contract, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Adding Kiermaier would’ve helped the Sox address their needs in the outfield, but the newly-signed Masataka Yoshida is Boston’s biggest swing in the outfield market to date. For now, the first-choice Red Sox starting outfield looks like Yoshida in left field, Enrique Hernandez in center, and Alex Verdugo in right.
More from around baseball…
- Speaking of past pursuits, Bellinger and Josh Bell were among the players “targeted” by the Marlins, according to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Both free agents are now off the market, after Bellinger signed with the Cubs and Bell joined the Guardians. Bellinger would’ve been a natural fit for the Marlins’ longstanding need in center field, and would’ve at least provided strong defense, even if it remains to be seen if his bat can return to anything close to his past MVP levels of production. Bell has provided solid (if not always consistent) offense over the last two seasons, and the Marlins naturally have a lot of familiarity with Bell from his days with the Nationals. Miami already parted ways with Lewin Diaz and Garrett Cooper has been a trade candidate in the past, so it would seem like first base could be a target position for the Marlins as they look to add some much-needed pop to their lineup.
- Though the Rays are also looking to add offense and particularly a left-handed hitting first base option, Bell “wasn’t high on their list,” Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. It’s a moot point anyway with Bell now in Cleveland, and the Rays can continue their search for a bat at just about any position. “Outside of maybe a shortstop, there probably aren’t too many other areas where we’d say, ‘No, we don’t have any interest in that’….We’re fortunate, because we have enough moving pieces and versatility with our players that there’s a lot of different players we could bring in and make it work,” Rays GM Peter Bendix told Topkin and other reporters.
- “Teams have checked” in with the Reds about Alexis Diaz, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. No trade seems close or particularly likely, given how the rookie right-hander looks more like a building block than a trade chip. In his first MLB season, Diaz finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a 1.84 ERA over 63 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen. Apart from a very high 12.9% walk rate, Diaz’s Statcast metrics were otherwise excellent, and he could be on his way to joining older brother Edwin as a star closer. Interestingly, the Mets explored a trade for the younger Diaz before the trade deadline, but while Cincinnati is in a rebuild phase, Nightengale figures it “would take an absolute haul to even pique the Reds’ interest” in a Diaz swap.
Nationals Sign Trevor Williams To Two-Year Deal
TODAY: The Nationals officially announced Williams’ deal.
DECEMBER 9, 9:22am: Williams will be guaranteed a total of $13MM, Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).
8:54am: The Nationals are in agreement on a two-year contract with free-agent righty Trevor Williams, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Williams is represented by John Boggs & Associates.
Williams, 31 in April, has spent the past season and a half with the Mets, pitching to a 3.17 ERA in 122 innings while splitting his time between the rotation (12 starts) and bullpen (28 appearances). He’d previously spent the bulk of his career as a starting pitcher, highlighted by a 31-start, 170 2/3-inning season of 3.11 ERA ball with the Pirates back in 2018. However, Williams has yet to consistently sustain that level of success over the course of multiple seasons.
For instance, Williams followed up that strong 2018 season with a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts in 2019, and he endured similar woes in the shortened 2020 season (6.18 ERA, 55 1/3 innings). That said, Williams has been a source of average or better innings in the other four full seasons of his career, dating back to 2017. In all, he owns a career 4.27 ERA and 4.40 FIP in a span of 715 1/3 Major League innings. He’s also coming off a career-high 22.6% strikeout rate and career-low 6.2% walk rate with the Mets in 2022.
Williams works with a traditional starter’s repertoire, leaning primarily on a four-seam fastball and complementing that with a sinker, slider and changeup that were all used at roughly equal levels in 2022 (plus a much more seldom-used curveball). None of those pitches generate huge spin, and none but the slider come with standout whiff rates. Still, Williams regularly excels at limiting hard contact, with above-average marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate throughout the majority of his career to this point.
Zuckerman suggests that Williams could well end up in the Nationals’ rotation, but that’s not yet set in stone, and a return to the swingman role in which he’s thrived with the division-rival Mets is possible. At present, the Nats have a pair of albatross contracts atop the rotation in Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and that pair will be followed by some combination of Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli and perhaps Williams. Given Strasburg’s avalanche of recent injury troubles, plus the uncertainty surrounding inexperienced arms like Gore and Cavalli, there ought to be ample rotation innings available even if Williams initially begins the season in the bullpen.
Williams is the second free-agent addition of the winter for the Nats, who also inked corner infielder Jeimer Candelario to a one-year, $5MM contract last month. Washington has a projected payroll of about $106MM next season, though the bulk of that is tied up in their onerous commitments to Strasburg and Corbin. Strasburg is still signed through the 2026 season, while Corbin is signed through 2024.
Chaim Bloom Discusses Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Extensions
Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres on the final day of the Winter Meetings, agreeing to a huge 11-year, $280MM deal. Despite speculation that the Red Sox were coming closer to re-signing the shortstop, “that was definitely not what our impression was throughout the day and even the day before,” Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo.
The signing officially ended Bogaerts’ time with the Red Sox, a tenure that began when Bogaerts was an international signing in August 2009 and lasted through 10 Major League seasons, two World Series championship teams, and four All-Star appearances for the shortstop. Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM contract extension with the Sox prior to the 2019 season, but chose to exercise his opt-out clause after the first three years of the extension, thus paving the way for his departure from Boston and his new home in San Diego.
Last spring, the Red Sox both signed Trevor Story to a long-term free agent deal and offered Bogaerts only a one-year extension (worth $30MM) on his contract, which were both widely interpreted as signs that the Sox weren’t counting on Bogaerts remaining beyond the date of his opt-out. Bloom publicly said several times that the Red Sox did indeed want to retain Bogaerts, and reiterated that stance even in the aftermath of the shortstop’s deal with the Padres.
“We wouldn’t have said that if we didn’t mean it,” Bloom said. “I think it became clear to us as things went on that this [Bogaerts’ price tag] was going to go to a point that we just weren’t, irrespective of how we prioritize things, it just wasn’t something that we should do. It’s hard because of how much we love him. But it’s just the reality of the situation.”
In fairness to the Red Sox, nobody expected Bogaerts to receive anything near a $280MM contract, and it is understandable why the organization didn’t want to reach that far. That said, reports suggested the Red Sox offered Bogaerts six years and around $160MM, which didn’t match the seven-year, $189MM deal MLBTR projected Bogaerts would land on the open market. In addition, the Sox have obviously had exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts for years, and could’ve more aggressively pursued an extension at any point before Bogaerts reached free agency.
Bogaerts joins Mookie Betts and Jon Lester as homegrown Red Sox stars who left the team (Bogaerts in free agency, Betts and Lester in trades) after extension talks didn’t materialize into a longer-term deal. Of course, as Bloom noted, Bogaerts did already ink one extension with the team, putting him “at a different place in his career.” The Sox have signed relatively few extensions in recent years and only three extensions since Bloom took over the front office following the 2019 season. Bloom told Cotillo that the team may change how it approaches extension candidates, perhaps with more of a focus on extending players to contracts before they reach salary arbitration.
“Anytime you have a situation where you have a homegrown player who wants to be here and we want him here and it doesn’t happen, I think those are fair questions to ask and those are questions we certainly need to ask ourselves,” Bloom said. “We haven’t, as an organization, always found a way to come together in those situations. I think it’s something to think about and assess.”
Rafael Devers presents the next big question for the Red Sox in this regard, as the star third baseman is set to reach free agency following the 2023 season. In a separate piece, a source close to Devers told Cotillo that “Bogaerts’ decision would not make it more likely that Devers would want to leave Boston,” as much as Devers would be “disappointed” at no longer playing with his longtime friend.
Bloom reiterated his team’s interest in keeping Devers, saying that “Raffy, for sure, is somebody we want to build around.”
“I’ve said it, and I know we haven’t demonstrated this to the degree that we’ve hoped to, but we believe in building around homegrown talent. You want to do it in the right way,” Bloom said. “It’s certainly something we want to do as often as we can….[Devers] has been somebody that we love and want right at the center of everything we hope to accomplish, obviously in 2023 but more importantly, in the years beyond, because those are the years he’s not under our control. We’re hoping to change that.”
Cole Hamels Planning Comeback In 2023
Cole Hamels is looking for one more shot at continuing his baseball career, and told The Associated Press that he is hoping to catch on with a new team this offseason. “A Spring Training invite is no risk, all reward. If you start me out in February, I’ll be ready by April 1,” Hamels said. “Or I’ll know exactly I can’t do it, and I will be the first one to admit, nope, I had a great career. I can hang it up and be proud of what I did.”
The left-hander is a veteran of 15 Major League seasons (2006-20), and is best remembered as one of the key figures of the Phillies’ 2008 World Series team. Hamels was named the MVP of both the NLCS and World Series during that championship season, the highlight of an excellent 10-year run in Philadelphia. After being traded to the Rangers in 2015, Hamels spent parts of four seasons in Texas before heading to the Cubs in 2018-19, and then one single game with the Braves in 2020.
That lone game represents Hamels’ last appearance in the big leagues. Triceps and shoulder injuries limited his time in Atlanta, and after he inked a $1MM deal with the Dodgers in August 2021, his Los Angeles stint was also derailed by injuries. Continued shoulder problems resulted in surgery, and Hamels has now spent over a year both recovering and taking care of some other related health issues.
The shoulder procedure was only one of three surgeries for Hamels over the last year, as he also dealt with a pinched nerve in his left foot and a torn right meniscus. “It’s hard to train when you’ve got body parts that are not doing what they’re supposed to do to allow you to do what you want to do,” Hamels said, and the fuller scope of surgeries allowed for more “understanding what was kind of wrong, getting it fixed and then actually being able to rehab it, just kind of addressing the right areas and not trying to overcompensate.”
This cleaner bill of health could make any interested teams feel more comfortable about signing a pitcher who turns 39 later in December, and who essentially hasn’t pitched in three full seasons. However, as Hamels noted, there isn’t much risk in a minor league contract, and clubs can use spring camp as a better chance to evaluate what the southpaw can still bring to the table. While Hamels would ideally like to start games, his primary goal is just getting back onto the mound, as he said he is “not opposed” to working as a reliever.
Padres Still Want Starter, Corner Bat
Even after adding Xander Bogaerts to an eleven-year, $280MM deal, the Padres are looking for more, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports they’re keen to bring in a starting pitcher and a corner bat.
The Padres have been busy this winter, signing Bogaerts and getting deep in the markets of Aaron Judge and Trea Turner before they signed elsewhere. They have seen starters Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea depart in free agency (although Manaea is still available), while they weakened their depth a bit by dealing MacKenzie Gore to Washington in the Juan Soto trade, so it makes plenty of sense that they’ll now focus on bolstering their rotation.
Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell are currently lined up in San Diego’s rotation, while the re-signed Nick Martinez is expected to start the 2023 season there too (although he wound up in the bullpen after ten starts in 2022). Adrian Morejon is an option as a starter, but he only appeared out of the bullpen last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. There’s every chance the Padres still view him as a starter, but given he has two options remaining it wouldn’t hurt for them to add another starter to give them another option.
The Padres luxury tax payroll is projected at around $254MM now, just shy of the second tier of luxury tax penalties. That’d seem to make it unlikely that they’d pursue someone like Carlos Rodon – the top free agent starter available – but then again, it’d be foolish to rule San Diego out of anything at this point. The Padres did meet with Koudai Senga last month, and were reported to have interest in Seth Lugo as well, but either of those two or options like Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt could make sense. They could also look to the trade market where someone like Pablo Lopez could be available, but having pulled off some big trades in recent years they may be reluctant to part with more prospects.
A corner bat seems like less of a need for the Padres. It’s not entirely clear how the team will align defensively after bringing in Bogaerts, but there seems a good chance that Fernando Tatis Jr. (when he returns from suspension) and Soto handle the outfield corners, and Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth take the infield spots, especially after AJ Preller said (via The Athletic) Bogaerts would at least begin as their everyday shortstop. Tatis will return in late-April so they won’t be without him long, but the team may want to rotate some of their starters through the DH spot and so a utility-type free agent addition could make some sense there.
Mets Re-Sign Brandon Nimmo To Eight-Year Deal
Dec 10: The Mets have officially announced the signing.
Dec 8: The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo are in agreement on a deal that would bring him back to Queens. He will make $162MM over eight years, with a salary of $20.25MM in each season. He will have a no-trade clause. Nimmo is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Nimmo, 30 in March, was considered by most observers to be the clear #2 outfielder on this winter’s free agent market, well behind Aaron Judge but also well ahead of anyone else. Nimmo is nowhere near Judge in terms of power, as he has only 63 home runs in his seven-year career, while Judge hit 62 in 2022 alone.
Despite that lack of power, Nimmo stood out from the rest of the outfielders on the market for a couple of reasons. One is an ability to play center field and a second is his ability to get on base. For his career, which began in 2016, he has a 13.6% walk rate and .385 on-base percentage. Only 17 qualified hitters have a better walk rate in that time while only seven have a better OBP. His career batting line is currently .269/.385/.441, leading to a 134 wRC+, indicating he’s been 34% better than the league average hitter.
That level of production would be welcome at any position but it’s especially valuable in center field, where many teams are looking for upgrades. Nimmo was unsurprisingly popular as a free agent, getting publicly reported interest from the Blue Jays, Giants, Yankees, Rays and Mariners, with others surely interested as well. But it will be the Mets, the franchise that drafted Nimmo 13th overall back in 2011, who will keep him. Even before the offseason truly began, it was reported that the Mets were prioritizing retaining Nimmo and closer Edwin Díaz, and they have now succeeded on both fronts.
The deal is not without its risks, as Nimmo has spent his share of time on the injured list. In his career, he has landed on the IL due to hamstring strains, a collapsed lung, a neck issue and a bruised finger. Due to those various ailments, he has only twice eclipsed 100 games in a season. Most of those injuries are a few years in the past at this point, as Nimmo stayed healthy in the shortened 2020 season, played 92 games in 2021 and then 151 games this year. That means he’s been healthy for the vast majority of the past three seasons. However, this deal has gone well beyond expectations in terms of both length and guarantee. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $110MM deal but Nimmo got three extra years and an extra $52MM, meaning this deal will take him into his age-37 season.
But the Mets are clearly as “win-now” as a team can possibly get and likely won’t worry themselves with the later years of the deal for now. Owner Steve Cohen, who just purchased the club at the end of the 2020 season, has shown he’s willing to blow well past previous spending limits shown by the Mets or anyone else. The Mets had never had an Opening Day payroll that reached $160MM in their pre-Cohen history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But they moved up to $195MM in 2021 and $264MM this past season. Cohen had previously hinted at a $300MM limit for 2022 to The New York Post but that number is well in the rear-view mirror now.
Today’s deals for Nimmo and reliever David Robertson bring the Mets’ payroll for next season to an incredible $322MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. In terms of the competitive balance tax, which uses the annual average values of contracts as opposed to just the 2023 salaries, they are at $335MM. That means they are incredibly more than $100MM beyond the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. There are also three further tiers of luxury tax payments, going up in $20MM increments to finish at $293MM, with the Mets now more than $40MM above that top level.
The CBT also has escalating penalties for going over the line in successive seasons, with the Mets sure to be a second-time payor. They will pay a 30% tax on spending over the first tier, 42% over the second, 75% over the third and 90% over the fourth. That means that they are currently slated to pay a tax of about $67MM, on top of that $322MM payroll. It’s also possible that they’re not done, as Andy Martino of SNY reports that they could still sign Kodai Senga, even after the Nimmo deal.
It seems that we don’t really know how far Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler are willing to go in their pursuits of building the best baseball team possible. The aggressive spending yielded mixed results in 2022, as the club won 101 games, the second-highest win total in franchise history. However, Atlanta snuck in and nudged the Mets aside for the division crown in the National League East, which then led to the Mets falling to the Padres in the first round of the playoffs.
For 2023, the Mets were facing a serious challenge in even repeating that performance. They had a huge free agent class that included Nimmo, Díaz, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt and a whole host of relievers. However, they have pulled out all the stops in trying to ramp back up for another shot next year. deGrom and Walker have signed elsewhere, but the Mets signed Justin Verlander and José Quintana to replace them, in addition to retaining Díaz and Nimmo.
Nimmo will now return to his center field position in Queens, flanked by Starling Marte and Mark Canha. The division will be a fascinating one to watch, as the Phillies have followed up their trip to the World Series by aggressively spending on Walker and Trea Turner, while Atlanta are still loaded with all of their young stars that they have locked into lengthy extensions.
Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the contract details (Twitter links 1, 2 and 3).
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.