Latest On Red Sox Pitching Targets
The Red Sox have already been linked to multiple free agent pitchers, with such names as Kodai Senga, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, and Tyler Anderson (since signed by the Angels), all reported as names on Boston’s radar, and the Sox also have interest in re-signing two of their own free agents in Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill.
Corey Kluber is also on this list, as the right-hander tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he had again had some talks with Boston this winter. After previously negotiating with the Red Sox in each of the right-hander’s previous two trips to the free agent market, Kluber ended up signing with the Yankees for the 2021 season and then with the Rays in 2022. Kluber posted a 4.34 ERA and a league-best 1.2 BB/9 over 164 innings with Tampa Bay, and pitching in Boston would have some extra appeal since Kluber and his family live in Winchester, Massachusetts.
While the Red Sox are actively seeking out more arms, Speier writes that it doesn’t appear the team is aiming for the very top of the pitching market. This means that Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, and Chris Bassitt are unlikely to be landing in Boston, for a variety of reasons. In the view of most pundits (including MLB Trade Rumors’ own top 50 free agent list), these are the four established Major League starters likely to score the biggest contracts on the open market this winter, and it seems as though the Red Sox aren’t eager to make quite such a big commitment to a single player. “The Sox are more likely to spread spending across several targets,” Speier writes, so hypothetically, Boston could sign the likes of Heaney and Eovaldi for less than it would cost to sign Verlander alone just in 2023 salary.
Senga could be something of an exception, as the Japanese ace is drawing enough widespread interest that it now looks like he could land one of the bigger contracts of any pitcher this offseason. MLBTR projects Senga for five years and $75MM, and while the Red Sox have interest, it is possible the bidding could get beyond their comfort zone.
The qualifying offer is also a factor, as deGrom, Rodon, and Bassitt all rejected the QO and thus have draft compensation attached to their services. Since the Red Sox surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2022, they’d face a higher penalty ($1MM in international bonus money, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft) for signing a qualifying free agent. Since Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts also rejected qualifying offers, the Red Sox could net two compensatory picks back if those player signed elsewhere, yet those picks would only fall after the fourth round as further penalty for exceeding the luxury tax. In short, the draft-related tradeoff probably means that the Sox would prefer to not sign a QO free agent, all things considered.
This strategy might not hold much appeal to Boston fans, who haven’t been pleased about the big-market team’s approach to spending in recent years. The Red Sox haven’t had much progress in trying to lock up Bogaerts or Rafael Devers to new contracts, and the team’s desire to reset their tax bill in 2020 was one of the factors behind trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. However, the Sox were willing to go over the tax line this past season, despite only a longshot chance at a playoff berth at the trade deadline. The Red Sox ended up with a disappointing 78-84 record and now an extra tax burden to boot, in the form of the QO-related penalties.
That said, it was just two offseasons ago that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom also used the “spread out the spending” strategy to bolster the roster that ended up making the 2021 ALCS. And, back in the 2012-13 offseason, the Red Sox famously made a number of lower-level acquisitions that all paid off in the best possible fashion, as Boston captured the 2013 World Series. So there is certainly recent evidence that a more measured approach to the offseason can work out swimmingly, and of course, there is still plenty of quality pitching available even in the second or third tiers of the open market, not to mention what else might emerge in trade talks.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Atlanta Braves
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a Braves-specific chat regarding the team’s offseason outlook. Click here to view the transcript.
Padres Have Jose Abreu As “A Top Priority”
The Padres have been in contact with Jose Abreu and his representatives, and San Diego consider Abreu to be “a top priority” this offseason, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). With Josh Bell, Wil Myers, and Brandon Drury all now free agents, the Padres have a vacancy at first base, making Abreu a logical target for the win-now team.
It has already been an active offseason for San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, as the Padres have make early strikes to re-sign both Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez. More work on the pitching staff is still likely to come, yet the Padres could also surely use at least one more bat to bolster a lineup that was generally middle-of-the-pack leaguewide. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back from suspension will help in that regard, and his return could push Jake Cronenworth towards first base. However, signing Abreu would reinforce the first base/DH spots and give the Padres more flexibility in deciding how they want to deploy Tatis, Cronenworth, and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield or perhaps elsewhere (i.e. Cronenworth at first base, or Tatis in the outfield).
The Padres have passed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, and the new contracts for Martinez and Suarez have put the team’s projected 2023 tax number at roughly $229.2MM — just shy of the $233MM threshold. With a lot of winter shopping remaining, Preller could reduce this tax bill with some trades, yet it would certainly appear as though ownership doesn’t mind continued spending in search of the franchise’s first World Series title.
With the payroll in mind, Abreu is a particularly interesting target as a player who couldn’t require too lengthy a financial commitment. Abreu is entering his age-36 season, and while he has continued to be a productive hitter, his age and a power dropoff in 2022 will likely limit him to perhaps two years at most on the open market. MLBTR projects a two-year, $40MM deal for the former AL MVP, which would again put the Padres in tax territory but the club has a lot of money coming off the books after the 2023 season.
As a luxury tax payor, San Diego faces an increased penalty if it signs a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. To this end, Abreu carries extra value for the Padres since he wasn’t eligible for a QO, having already been issued an offer when he was last a free agent following the 2019 season. Abreu ended up accepting that qualifying offer from the White Sox, and then a few weeks later signed a longer extension keeping him in Chicago through the 2022 campaign.
Ultimately working out as a three-year, $50MM commitment, that deal worked out well for both Abreu and the Sox, as the first baseman continued to hit into his mid-30’s. Highlighted by his MVP showing in the shortened 2020 season, Abreu hit .289/.366/.489 with 64 homers over an even 1600 PA from 2020-22, helping Chicago reach the postseason in two of those years. However, with young slugger Andrew Vaughn now vying for first base time and the Sox being overloaded with players in need of DH time, it appears as though the White Sox won’t be pursuing another deal with Abreu.
It sets the stage for Abreu to move on from the only Major League organization he has ever known. After defecting from Cuba, Abreu signed a six-year, $68MM deal with the White Sox in October 2013, with Chicago outbidding several other teams. One of the other interested teams was the Rangers, when Preller was working in the Texas front office.
Mariners Interested In Gleyber Torres
The Mariners have interest in Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. It isn’t known if the two sides are particularly close on any sort of trade, though Sherman theorizes that the M’s could potentially offer the Yankee some bullpen help in return — akin to Seattle’s deal for Teoscar Hernandez earlier this week.
Second base is an area of need for the Mariners, and Milwaukee’s Kolten Wong is another name reportedly on Seattle’s trade radar. Acquiring a second baseman would allow the Mariners to keep J.P. Crawford at shortstop, which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said is the team’s preferred scenario for 2023 and beyond. This even extends to this winter’s shortstop market, as Dipoto is hopeful of finding a top-tier shortstop who could be willing to move to the other middle infield position to accommodate Crawford. Trading for a player like Torres would allow the M’s to sidestep the free agent shortstop market altogether, and perhaps save some payroll space to address other needs.
Torres is a former shortstop himself, as the Yankees’ ill-fated attempt to use Torres as the everyday shortstop resulted in some lackluster defensive numbers. A greatly improved team defense was a big part of New York’s success in 2022, and Torres was part of that effort at second base, in the eyes of the Defensive Runs Saved (+9) and UZR/150 (+4.8) metrics. The Outs Above Average metric wasn’t as kind with only a -1 rating, yet there is certainly no doubt Torres has more defensive value at the keystone than at shortstop.
How Torres’ glovework might translate to the 2023 season is an open question, given the incoming rules limiting defensive shifts. Still, the Mariners have confidence in Crawford’s ability as an elite (when healthy) defensive shortstop, and he could potentially make up for some or any struggles Torres might have under the new rules. It could be that Seattle also thinks Torres’ bat can make up for any shortcomings in the field.
Torres hit .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs over 572 plate appearances last season, resulting in a 115 wRC+. It was a solid bounce-back from Torres’ 94 wRC+ in 2021, as there was some thought that the defensive change would also help Torre get more focused at the plate. Torres hit for a lot more power and made much more hard contact in 2022 than in 2021, though his strikeout and walk rates actually decreased to below-average numbers from the previous season. That said, there has always been some variance in Torres’ K% and BB% rates, even dating back to his best seasons (2018 and 2019), whereas 2022 marked the first time Torres’ hard-hit ball percentage topped the league average.
On the financial side, Torres is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and is projected to earn $9.8MM this winter in his third trip through the arb process. As a Super Two player, Torres has four years of arbitration eligibility instead of the usual three, and his projected 2023 salary represents another notable raise from his $6.25MM figure in 2022. While the Yankees are one of baseball’s biggest spenders, that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily willing to keep meeting this escalating cost, especially if they have any doubts that Torres’ production will continue to merit this price tag.
As well, New York has some intriguing cheaper options coming up from the farm system. Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza each made their MLB debuts last season, and star prospect Anthony Volpe is expected to get his first taste of the majors in 2023. Sherman writes that “the Yankees let executives at the GM meetings know they were open for business with their middle infielders,” meaning that both Torres and Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be dangled in order to both upgrade at other positions and to create some lineup space for the youngsters. The Yankees avoided arbitration with Kiner-Falefa yesterday, agreeing to a one-year, $6MM deal for the 2023 campaign.
There is enough turnover potential that Sherman “would be shocked if at least one [of Torres or Kiner-Falefa] was not moved” before Opening Day. Other than the newly re-signed Anthony Rizzo at first base, there’s a lot of potential flux around New York’s infield, given that DJ LeMahieu is still figuring out the best course of action to treat the toe injuries that hampered him last season. If surgery does become necessary for LeMahieu, that might make the Yankees less open to moving a proven contributor like Torres. The Yankees seem ready to open up the third base position by moving Josh Donaldson, yet the combination of Donaldson’s offensive decline, his poor clubhouse reputation, and his big contract (at least $29MM remaining through 2023) might mean the Yankees could just end up releasing Donaldson if they just want to on move on from the former AL MVP.
Giants Interested In Kenley Jansen
Kenley Jansen has drawn interest from the Giants, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link). The veteran reliever is a free agent for the second straight winter, after signing a one-year, $16MM deal with the Braves last offseason.
There is plenty of familiarity between Jansen and the Giants, and not only because San Francisco spent 12 seasons in direct competition with the closer back when Jansen pitched with the Dodgers. As Morosi notes, both Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler were also working for Los Angeles back when Jansen wore the Dodger Blue.
The Giants have been active in retooling a bullpen that was pretty uninspiring in 2022, as the team has already parted ways with Dominic Leone, Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, Alex Young, and Mauricio Llovera. Signing Jansen would be a bold way of upgrading the relief mix, as Kapler could alternate between Jansen and incumbent closer Camilo Doval for save situations. The Giants have preferred a little ninth-inning flexibility during Kapler’s three years as manager, though Jake McGee received the bulk of save opportunities in 2021 and Doval the majority of chances in 2022. McGee’s early-season struggles and eventual release paved the way for Doval to become more or less the full-time closer this past season, and the Giants might prefer to return Doval to a high-leverage role behind an established closer.
Jansen is entering his age-36 season, but continued to pitch well in recording an NL-best 41 saves with Atlanta last season. The right-hander had a 3.38 ERA and his usual set of excellent strikeout, hard-hit ball, and fastball spin rates, though there were a few question marks. Jansen’s barrel rate was below-average for the first time since 2018, and for the third straight season, he had a subpar walk rate. On the plus side, Jansen’s 8.5% walk rate at least represented an improvement from an ugly 12.9% mark in 2021 that sat near the bottom of the league.
Between that walk rate, Jansen’s age, and perhaps just the limited timeframe of the lockout-shortened offseason, Jansen could only find a one-year contract last winter. However, his strong performance with the Braves has MLBTR projecting him for a two-year, $26MM contract this winter.
Any number of teams with more glaring needs at closer than San Francisco could be more willing to bid on Jansen’s services, yet it is quite possible he would have interest in a return to the NL West and a reunion with Zaidi and Kapler. The Giants are also planning to return to contention, and while splurging on a reliever isn’t usually Zaidi’s preferred strategy, the team has plenty of available payroll space and is expected to be quite aggressive in the free agent market.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/22
Catching up on some minor league moves from around the sport…
- The Red Sox outrighted catcher/infielder Caleb Hamilton to Triple-A, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter link). Boston claimed Hamilton off waivers from the Twins last month, and designated him for assignment earlier this week. A 23rd-round pick for the Twins in the 2016 draft, Hamilton has spent his entire pro career with Minnesota, culminating in 22 games at the Major League level last season (Hamilton had one hit in his first 23 big league plate appearances). Hamilton didn’t begin catching until after starting his pro career, and he has played several other positions before mostly settling in at catcher and the two corner infield spots over the last few seasons.
- The Reds signed right-hander Ben Lively to a minor league deal, with an invite to their Major League spring camp. Lively posted a 4.80 ERA over 120 innings with the Phillies and Royals from 2017-19, pitched with the KBO League’s Samsung Lions in 2020-21, and then returned to North American baseball on another minors deal with the Reds last winter. Though he missed over two months due to a flexor strain, Lively posted a 4.09 ERA over 77 innings with Triple-A Louisville in 2022. He’ll return to the organization in at least a depth role, and might have a shot at winning a spot in Cincinnati’s rotation in Spring Training.
- The Nationals announced that utilityman Erick Mejia has been signed to a minor league contract, with an invite to Washington’s big league Spring Training camp. Mejia is a veteran of 17 MLB games, all with the Royals in 2019-20 — his last two seasons were spent at the Triple-A level, with the Royals’ affiliate in 2021 and then with the Mariners’ top affiliate in 2022 after signing a minors deal last winter. The 28-year-old has a modest .270/.336/.390 slash line over 3493 career PA in the minor leagues, but Mejia will provide the Nats with depth all over the diamond. With most of his experience coming at the middle infield positions, Mejia has lined up at every position except pitcher and catcher over his 11 pro seasons.
Dodgers Non-Tender Cody Bellinger
The Dodgers will not tender a contract to Cody Bellinger for his final year of arbitration eligibility, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the 2019 NL MVP for a salary around $18.1MM. Bellinger will be a free agent once the team officially announces the decision.
It’s not a surprising move at this point, but it’s one nobody would’ve foreseen when Bellinger was collecting his MVP trophy three years ago. He blasted 47 home runs that season and posted an overall .305/.406/.629 line across 661 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter looked to have cemented himself as one of the sport’s preeminent sluggers, and he carried a career .278/.368/.559 mark in over 1800 plate appearances heading into 2020. At age 24, Bellinger seemed a budding superstar.
Unfortunately, things have gone south over the past few seasons. He stumbled a bit during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, putting up a .239/.333/.455 line in 56 games. That was still above-average production but a notable step back from the numbers of his first few seasons. A putrid .245 batting average on balls in play seemed to be a major cause of that, and one could certainly point to the anomalous circumstances that year in anticipating a bounceback.
That’s not how things have played out, seemingly in part due to an ill-advised celebration that postseason. Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder celebrating a crucial home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. While he played out the postseason, he underwent surgery in mid-November. Bellinger was healthy enough to open the 2021 campaign on the roster, but he battled a series of unrelated leg and rib issues. In between, his slash line plummeted to a meager .165/.240/.302 in 95 games.
L.A. brought him back last winter, avoiding arbitration on a $17MM salary. Their hoped-for bounceback season didn’t really materialize, though. Bellinger’s 2022 numbers were improved from the prior year but nowhere near those of previous seasons. In 550 trips to the plate, he put up a .210/.265/.389 mark. That brings him to exactly 900 plate appearances over the past two years, in which he’s hit .193/.256/.355. His on-base percentage is lowest among the 151 hitters with 900+ trips to the dish, while his batting average bests only that of Joey Gallo. He’s sixth from the bottom in slugging.
Bellinger’s batted ball metrics and power output have taken a step back, which could indicate he’s never quite regained the explosiveness in his swing after the shoulder surgery. Yet he’s also seen a marked uptick in strikeouts, fanning 27.1% of the time after cutting his strikeout rate below 18% in 2019-20. His walk percentage fell to a below-average 7.7%, and manager Dave Roberts has increasingly dropped him further in the batting order.
With two full seasons of huge offensive struggles under his belt, the Dodgers have elected to move on rather than pay the two-time All-Star in the neighborhood of $18MM. That always looked to be more than even the high-spending franchise would be willing to pay, and it stands to reason no other club was willing to offer that kind of salary either. The Dodgers have presumably spent the past few weeks gauging the trade market for Bellinger, and that he’ll be cut loose for no return indicates there wasn’t much interest at that price point.
That said, there’s no question he’ll be of interest to teams as a bounceback target at a lower cost. Bellinger, to his credit, hasn’t allowed his offensive struggles to affect his work in the field. He’s an elite runner who has moved full-time to center field after coming up as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved has rated him as a roughly average center fielder the last two years, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have pegged him above par. Statcast has been most bullish, rating him as seven runs above average in just under 1900 innings of center field work since the start of the 2021 campaign.
Slightly above-average center field defense and plus baserunning gives Bellinger a decent floor even if he’s not hitting well, although he’s obviously quite a bit more of an upside play than a traditional glove-only outfielder. He’ll look for a complete reset offensively but heading into his age-27 campaign, he could certainly still rediscover some of his old form at the plate.
Non-tendered players aren’t subject to waivers, so Bellinger will be a free agent. He and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will have the opportunity to gauge interest from other teams, and they’ll benefit from a lack of supply in center field. Excepting Aaron Judge, former Met Brandon Nimmo is the top center fielder available in free agency. Bellinger arguably becomes the next-best option in a class that also includes Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duvall and Jackie Bradley Jr.
The Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Astros, Padres and Giants (a team run by former L.A. executive Farhan Zaidi) could all look externally for center help. They’re speculative fits for Bellinger, and the Dodgers themselves could remain in contact about a reunion at a lower price point.
Los Angeles could give Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor or Trayce Thompson increased center field run, but it stands to reason they’ll also scour the market for help outside the organization. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) they’re taking a look at Kiermaier as part of that search.
Subtracting Bellinger’s arbitration projection leaves L.A. with around $152MM in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource, pending additional arbitration decisions. They’re estimated around $169MM in luxury tax obligations, leaving them well shy of next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. That doesn’t include an approximate $20MM salary for Clayton Kershaw, who’s reportedly nearing a deal to re-sign. Still, the Dodgers should have plenty of financial breathing room to address shortstop, center field, third base and rotation depth that look like the team’s biggest question marks early in the offseason.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.
Later Updates
- The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).
Earlier Moves
- The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
- The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
- The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
- The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
- The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
- The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
- The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
- The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
- The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
- The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
- The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.
Reds Acquire Kevin Newman
The Reds and Pirates agreed to an intra-divisional trade that sends infielder Kevin Newman to Cincinnati for reliever Dauri Moreta. Both teams have announced the deal.
Newman changes organizations for the first time in his career. Pittsburgh selected him with the 19th overall pick in the 2015 draft, and he reached the majors roughly three years later. He struggled in 31 games down the stretch as a rookie, but he had a solid sophomore showing. The University of Arizona product hit .308/.353/.446 across 531 plate appearances in 2019, securing the primary shortstop job in the process.
He held the role for the next couple seasons, but his offensive productivity wilted. Newman had well below-average numbers in both 2020-21, combining to hit just .226/.268/.302 through 726 plate appearances. Even with strong defensive metrics in 2021, his overall production hovered right around replacement level. The rebuilding Bucs continued to give him opportunities, however, and he righted the ship enough this year they managed to find a trade partner.
The 29-year-old posted a .274/.316/.372 mark over 309 plate appearances this past season. He lost over two months to a left groin strain mid-year, but his rate production was his best since 2019. The righty hitter’s overall offensive profile hasn’t much changed throughout his career. Newman makes a ton of contact, putting the ball in play early in counts to suppress both his strikeout and walk totals. He has very little power, with just 20 career home runs — 12 of which came during a 2019 season that saw arguably the liveliest ball in league history. He’s reliant on a quality batting average on balls in play to prop up his numbers but looks like a decent bottom-0f-the-lineup option when enough singles drop in.
Newman’s calling card is his ability to play up the middle. He’s logged over 2500 big league innings at shortstop, typically rating at or a bit below league average. He drew quality marks in 2021, but for his career, he’s been an estimated nine runs below average according to Defensive Runs Saved and six runs below par in the estimation of Statcast. Public metrics have rated him slightly below average in just under 800 career frames at second base as well.
The presence of Oneil Cruz in Pittsburgh displaced Newman at shortstop. The Bucs could’ve relied upon him at second base, but they may prefer to take a longer look at 23-year-old Rodolfo Castro with an eye towards eventually turning things to a prospect like Nick Gonzales or Liover Peguero.
Cincinnati has less clarity at shortstop with José Barrero thus far failing to seize the position. The Reds dealt Kyle Farmer to the Twins this evening and could use a stable option to hold down the position until the arrival of top prospect Elly De La Cruz, who turns 21 in January and finished this year in Double-A. Newman is arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.8MM salary; he’s controllable through 2024.
Moreta, 26, received his first big league call late in 2021. The 6’2″ righty pitched in four games down the stretch but got some decent run this past season. The Reds called upon Moreta 35 times in relief, and he worked to a 5.40 ERA through 38 1/3 innings. Moreta punched out a decent 24.4% of opponents against an average 8.1% walk rate, but he was done in by major home run issues. He surrendered 10 longballs (an average of 2.35 per nine innings), thanks in large part to a very low 32.7% ground-ball rate.
That extreme fly-ball propensity made him a rough fit for Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home environment, but he could have a better go in the more spacious PNC Park. Moreta has a fastball that sits just under 96 MPH on average, and he missed bats on a solid 11% of his offerings this year. With a more favorable home park, it’s possible he translates those decent strikeout and walk numbers into viable middle innings work. He won’t reach arbitration until at least the end of the 2024 campaign, and he can still be optioned to the minor leagues in each of the next two seasons. He’s a big league ready middle relief depth option.
Ken Rosenthal and Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic first reported the Reds were acquiring Newman. Biertempfel was first to report Cincinnati would receive Moreta in return.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.
For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.
One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…
Latest
- The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
- The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.
Earlier Deals
- The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
- The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
- The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
- The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
- The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
- The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
- The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
- The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
- The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
- The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
- The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
- The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
- The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
- The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.