Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Nelson Cruz To Undergo Eye Surgery
Nationals slugger Nelson Cruz tells Jessica Camerato of MLB.com that he will undergo surgery on his left eye at the end of October due to some inflammation that is blocking his vision (Twitter links). He expects to resume baseball activities in 6-8 weeks, which should give him plenty of time to be ready for Spring Training.
“Vision is everything for hitters,” Cruz says. “But the good thing is, it can be fixed.” Going into more detail, he says: “You can only see clearly with the right eye. When I close this one, it’s not clear. I need my eyes to be sharp, to be able to see the ball, especially see spins.” Cruz then adds that he estimates the issue has been affecting him for the past year and a half, though it got worse recently.
The estimated timeline that Cruz provides is an interesting one, as that aligns with his downturn at the plate. He was an above-average hitter for 14 straight years from 2008 to 2021, though he tailed off in the second half of last year. He began the year with the Twins and hit .294/.370/.537 for a wRC+ of 142. In July, he was traded to the Rays for Joe Ryan, Drew Strotman and Calvin Faucher. Unfortunately for Tampa, Cruz’s production fell off almost immediately and he ended up hitting .226/.283/.442 as a Ray for a wRC+ of 95.
Despite that sluggish finish to the season, the rebuilding Nationals gave Cruz a one-year, $15MM deal plus a mutual option. The Nats didn’t really have designs on competing but likely hoped for Cruz to act as a mentor to younger players and then play well enough to be flipped for prospects midseason. Leading up to the trade deadline, there were some rumors that the Mets were interested, but a deal for Cruz never came together, likely due to his subpar performance this year. His batting line for the season is .234/.313/.337 for a wRC+ of 85.
Going into the offseason, Cruz is destined for the open market since mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides. This news about his eye will make his free agency an interesting case to watch. On the one hand, he is now 42 years old and has been below-average at the plate for over a year. He’s strictly a designated hitter at this point, meaning that he holds no value for teams if he can’t produce at the plate. However, if it’s true that the eye issue was holding him back, it’s possible that he could return to being a feared slugger like he was in the first few months of last season. He’ll have the next few months to find out which clubs are willing to take a chance on him.
Padres Place Mike Clevinger On IL Due To Illness
The Padres announced that they have placed right-hander Mike Clevinger on the injured list due to illness. Fellow righty Nabil Crismatt was recalled in a corresponding move.
Clevinger, 31, was set to start the final game of the season but was scratched due to this illness. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the team is still awaiting the results of a COVID test and also relays that Clevinger has been dealing with some knee soreness lately. He missed time earlier this year due to a knee sprain.
The timing of the ailment is significant, as the Padres have clinched a playoff spot and will begin a best-of-three Wild Card series against the Mets on Friday. Clevinger likely wouldn’t have earned a start in that series, with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove the probables for those three contests. However, if the Friars can survive into the NLDS and beyond, they will likely need a fourth starter at some point. If Clevinger is not 100%, it’s possible that Sean Manaea might get the gig instead.
Clevinger missed all of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and has returned to throw 114 1/3 innings here in 2022. He has a 4.33 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 35.2% ground ball rate. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.
Red Sox Claim Easton McGee From Rays
The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Easton McGee off waivers from the Rays, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. McGee had been designated for assignment on Monday.
McGee, 24, will join just the second organization of his career. He was drafted by the Rays in 2016 and has been with them until today. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but has always limited walks and gotten lots of ground balls, though he’s gotten less grounders this year. In 107 2/3 Triple-A innings this season, he registered a 5.43 ERA with a 17.4% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 39.6% ground ball rate. He was especially vulnerable to the long ball, surrendering 24 home runs this year.
The Rays selected him to the big league roster a week ago and put him into Sunday’s game. McGee threw three innings in his MLB debut without allowing an earned run, though one unearned run did cross the plate. He was designated for assignment the next day as part of the standard Tampa Bay roster churn.
The Red Sox are evidently intrigued by the 6’6″ righty, nabbing him off waivers on the final day of the regular season. McGee comes with a full slate of options and just a few days of service time, meaning he can be part of Boston’s pitching staff for the foreseeable future, so long as he hangs onto a 40-man roster spot. The club is facing a great deal of turnover in its rotation, with Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha all slated to reach free agency in a month’s time, making it fairly sensible to reach out and grab another depth option.
Mariners Place Jesse Winker On Injured List
The Mariners have placed outfielder Jesse Winker on the 10-day injured list due to a neck issue, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter links). Fellow outfielder Taylor Trammell was recalled in a corresponding move. Shannon Drayer relays that Winker is likely done for the season but that Dylan Moore and Jarred Kelenic, both hit by pitches yesterday, should be okay. The Mariners subsequently announced the moves, describing Winker’s injury as a cervical disc bulge. His placement is retroactive to October 3.
It’s been a somewhat disappointing season for Winker, given that his results have fallen off from last year’s. However, he’s still been an above-average hitter for the season as a whole. With the Reds in 2021, Winker hit 24 home runs and produced a batting line of .305/.394/.556. That production was 47% better than league average by measure of wRC+. After coming to Seattle in an offseason trade, he’s hit 14 long balls and slashed .219/.344/.344. That’s obviously a big drop from last year but still good enough for a wRC+ of 109, or 9% above league average.
This IL placement is significant for a couple of reasons, including the timing. The M’s are about to begin the Wild Card series against the Blue Jays on Friday, the club’s first postseason appearance since 2001. Winker will now be officially unavailable for that series as well as a portion of the ALDS, should the Mariners survive that long.
There’s also the fact that the club’s outfield mix is banged up in a few other ways right now. The club also put Sam Haggerty on the IL yesterday, subtracting another useful member of the group. Julio Rodriguez just returned from his own IL stint due to back issues. As mentioned above, Kelenic and Moore were both hit by pitches last night and are sticking around, though it’s possible they may have some lingering soreness. That group, and Mitch Haniger, will now be joined by Trammell when the Mariners head to Toronto.
Angels Sign Phil Nevin To One-Year Deal As Manager
The Angels announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with Phil Nevin to manage the club in 2023. Nevin had taken over on an interim basis this year when Joe Maddon was fired but will stick around for another season in the dugout.
Nevin, 51, will get his first proper stint as a manager next year. After playing in 12 seasons from 1995 to 2006, he transitioned into coaching. He began in independent ball before getting some work in the minors. He got up to the major league level in 2017, joining the Giants as a third base coach before taking on the same job with the Yankees and then the Angels.
2022 got off to a roaring start for the Angels, with the club going 14-8 in April. For a moment, there was hope that the club could finally put it all together after years of not being able to capitalize on all the talent on their roster. However, the club slumped after that, eventually undergoing a 12-game losing streak across the end of May and early June, leading to Maddon getting fired as bench boss.
Nevin was promoted to interim manager at that point, losing his first two games to extend that losing streak to a 14-gamer. Overall, since the switch, the club has gone 46-59. Those aren’t exactly inspiring numbers, but it’s hard to know how much of that to pin on Nevin given the deficiencies of the roster.
Despite Nevin’s lack of experience and tepid results so far, there’s some logic to maintaining the continuity of the staff by keeping him around. There’s a great deal of uncertainty hovering over the club right now for a few reasons, one of which is that owner Arte Moreno is exploring selling the team. It’s possible that the club has a new owner in place or at least lined up by this time next year. At that time, they may have their own plans about how they want to run the club, whether they want to try to compete immediately or embark on a rebuild. Given that uncertain future, it makes sense to keep Nevin in there as a sort of placeholder until the future becomes clearer. The alternative would be conducting a lengthy search to find a new manager, but candidates might not be enthused about stepping into a situation that is still very much in flux.
There’s also the uncertainty around the on-field product. Despite having tremendously talented players like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon on the roster, the team has continued to disappoint. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2014 and haven’t had a winning record since 2015. Ohtani is currently slated to reach free agency after the 2023 campaign, at which point Trout will be 32 and Rendon will be 33. It’s entirely possible that next season is the one that they finally put it all together, but it’s also possible that they disappoint yet again. The roster has obvious holes right now and it’s hard to guess how much Moreno would be interested in spending on a team he’s actively trying to sell.
There’s a wide variety of potential outcomes for the next year with a vast number of unknowns beyond that. The club will eventually have to decide what kind of manager they want, depending on which path they go down. However, today’s decision to keep Nevin around effectively kicks that can down the road for another year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Athletics Notes: Kemp, Vogt, Irvin, Puk
The 2022 season has been a disappointing one for A’s second baseman/outfielder Tony Kemp, who’s followed up last year’s .279/.382/.418 slash with a flimsy .235/.308/.335 output through a career-high 554 plate appearances. Kemp, due a raise on his $2.25MM salary in what will be his final trip through the arbitration process, seemingly acknowledged his status as a potential trade or non-tender candidate, telling Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle that he hopes he’ll get the chance to rebound with Oakland next season.
“I want to be with this team,” Kemp said yesterday. “…going into my last year of arbitration I just think that being able to be part of this team would be something special.”
A’s skipper Mark Kotsay gave Kemp a vote of confidence, lauding the 30-year-old’s improved second-half play and touting him as a potential clubhouse leader for the 2023 team. Kemp, to his credit, is hitting .278/.343/.429 in the season’s second half, but the A’s have been focused on shedding payroll since last offseason began; time will tell whether Kemp becomes another step toward that end.
Kemp’s salary next season will by no means break the bank — likely falling shy of the $4MM range. As I noted when previewing Oakland’s upcoming offseason, the A’s don’t have a single dollar committed to next year’s roster at the moment, with Kemp, catcher Sean Murphy, outfielder Ramon Laureano, righty Paul Blackburn and perhaps lefties A.J. Puk and Cole Irvin (depending on this year’s Super Two cutoff) standing as the team’s notable arbitration-eligible players. (Murphy, who drew ample interest prior to the summer trade deadline, figures to generate plenty of interest again this offseason.)
One player who assuredly won’t be back — at least in a playing capacity — is veteran catcher Stephen Vogt, who announced late last month that he’d retire at season’s end. A ten-year veteran with a unique career arc and future managerial aspirations, Vogt seems far from done in with baseball as a whole. Whether the next steps for him are to pursue coaching/managing, front-office work or even a career in the broadcast booth remain to be determined, but the Chronicle’s John Shea spoke to Kotsay, GM David Forst and broadcaster Ken Korach about why Vogt would excel at any of the three.
Kotsay praised Vogt’s ability to have tough conversations with teammates — “telling guys things they need to hear, not things they want to hear” — and cited recent examples of Vogt doing just that. Beyond Kotsay’s own belief that Vogt has a future in managing, he noted to Shea that Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who managed Vogt in 2017, has remarked in the past that Vogt could eventually even be his successor in Milwaukee.
Forst, too, noted Vogt’s leadership traits and “ability to connect with everybody in the clubhouse,” adding that such traits are also important on the front-office side of the game. Forst compared Vogt’s skill set to that of former A’s outfielder and current Phillies general manager Sam Fuld, adding that Vogt will quite likely “be good at whatever he chooses to do.”
The 28-year-old Irvin name-checked Vogt after yesterday’s game, telling reporters that he’s “learned a lot” from Vogt, specifically with regard to his preparation for each start (link via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Irvin’s six shutout innings Tuesday dropped his ERA back under 4.00 — a personal goal of his after he’d struggled through a rough patch over the past month or so. The lefty voiced pride in making 30-plus starts in consecutive seasons and, after finishing this year with a career-high 181 innings, noted that reaching 200 frames will be a goal in 2023.
At this point, any A’s player with some success and a potential arbitration salary will draw his share of trade speculation, but Kotsay spoke glowingly of Irvin’s increased role as a leader on the pitching staff and spoke of him as an important piece to the 2023 roster: “I’m looking forward to seeing him again next year.”
Oakland’s acquisition of Irvin didn’t garner much attention at the time, but sending cash to the Phillies following the left-hander’s DFA in late January of 2021 has proven to be one of the best quiet acquisitions the A’s have made in recent years. Over the past two seasons, Irvin has started 62 games and pitched to a combined 4.11 ERA in 359 1/3 innings. The 2022 season saw Irvin make slight improvements in his strikeout rate, walk rate, swinging-strike rate, called-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate over last year’s levels.
Irvin will head into the offseason with two years, 120 days (2.120) of Major League service time. That’ll put him right on the Super Two bubble, potentially setting him up for four trips through the arbitration process, rather than the standard three. The Super Two cutoffs over the last three seasons have been 2.116, 2.125 and 2.115, respectively, so Irvin would’ve made the cut in two of the three seasons. The 27-year-old Puk, who’s saved four games and piled up 20 holds while pitching to a 3.12 ERA in 66 1/3 innings of relief, is in a similar boat with 2.124 years of service time.
Marlins Notes: Meyer, Pitching Staff, Mattingly, Coaches
The Marlins will likely be without top pitching prospect Max Meyer for the entire 2023 season after he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of July. Whether it’s a return late in the ’23 season or for Opening Day 2024, the former No. 3 overall pick is still a pivotal arm for the organization’s future — but a role has yet to be determined. Scouting reports on Meyer have long suggested that he could eventually land in the bullpen, and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre tells Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald that the right-hander indeed has traits that “lean more on a bullpen guy.” Stottlemyre emphasized that Meyer will still get a look as a starter to “see how his changeup develops, see how he reacts to getting through the lineup three times” but also noted that Meyer’s elite slider, max-effort delivery and general mentality on the mound all lend themselves to potential bullpen work. “He is wired a lot like a bullpen guy,” said Stottlemyre.
Jackson’s piece also contains detailed thoughts from both Stottlemyre and outgoing skipper Don Mattingly on a number of the team’s young arms, including Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Sixto Sanchez and top prospect Eury Perez. General manager Kim Ng, meanwhile, appeared as a guest in the booth during yesterday’s game and broadly discussed the team’s rotation depth (Twitter link, with video, via Bally Sports Florida).
Some more notes out of Miami…
- Although Mattingly is on the way out as the team’s manager, he revealed yesterday that he’s at least spoken to Marlins owner Bruce Sherman about the possibility of remaining with the organization in another role (Twitter link via Jackson). The 61-year-old Mattingly stated that, while nothing has been agreed upon yet, “nothing’s off the table” either. Mattingly noted at the time of his release that he was looking forward to spending time with his family but also “to any future endeavors,” strongly suggesting that he does not plan to retire and that he’s open to opportunities both with the Marlins or with another club. There will be quite a few managerial openings this winter, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mattingly surface as a candidate for several of them. The Rangers, Angels, Phillies, White Sox and Blue Jays all currently have “interim” managers after in-season dismissals of their Opening Day personnel, though some of those interim skippers could be moved into a full-time role for the 2023 season.
- Marlins general manager Kim Ng was a guest in the booth on yesterday’s broadcast and said that any decisions pertaining to the coaching staff will likely wait until a new manager is hired (Twitter link, with video, via Bally Sports Florida). MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola wrote recently, however, that the Marlins will likely try to retain Stottlemyre as pitching coach, though they’ll likely have competition from other clubs in that regard. “I guess fortunate thing for Mel and unfortunate thing for the organization, Mel’s probably going to have options,” Mattingly said last week when asked about Stottlemyre.
José Abreu: No Talks With White Sox About New Contract
White Sox first baseman José Abreu is on the verge of reaching free agency again, heading back to the open market once the offseason begins in November. He spoke to the media today and answered questions about his future, including one about whether he plans on returning to the field in 2023. “Of course, I love baseball,” Abreu said, as relayed by James Fegan of The Athletic. Abreu goes on to say that talks with the Chicago front office about a new contract have not taken place and that he will take some time to think about his next steps.
The fact that Abreu doesn’t want to rush this decision is fairly sensible, given that his previous foray into free agency was very brief. He was given a $17.8MM qualifying offer by the White Sox at the conclusion of the 2019 season and eventually accepted. One week later, he and the club agreed to a three-year, $50MM deal which replaced that QO. Instead, Abreu received a $5MM signing bonus, $11MM salary in 2020, $16MM in 2021 and $18MM in 2022.
That deal could hardly have gone much better for the club, with Abreu continuing to be an excellent hitter in that time. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit 19 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .317/.370/.617. That production was 64% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Abreu earned American League MVP honors while helping the club make the postseason for the first time since 2008.
He couldn’t quite maintain that torrid pace over an entire season, but still had a great campaign in 2021. He launched another 30 long balls and slashed .261/.351/.481, wRC+ of 125. He sacrificed some power for average here in 2022 but still with great results overall. He’s gone over the fence 15 times so far while hitting .304/.378/.445 for a wRC+ of 137.
Given his continued production and strong reputation off the field as a clubhouse leader, it would be fairly logical for the Sox to want him back. However, there might also be a couple of factors working against that course of action. For one thing, there’s the team’s budget. The White Sox set a franchise record by running out an Opening Day payroll of $129MM in 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but then vaulted way past that here in 2022 by getting to $193MM.
There’s already about $121MM committed to next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, but with some key expenses not yet factored in. Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM option is a lock to be exercised while Lucas Giolito will get a raise via arbitration. He made $7.45MM this year and will likely get above eight figures for 2023. Those two contracts will get the club into the $145MM range while still not including arbitration salaries for Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and others. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level this year, they could certainly fit in a contract for Abreu, though that would leave them with fewer resources to address other areas of need such as the pitching staff. Yesterday, general manager Rick Hahn told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that the club was likely to be more active in the trade market than in free agency, seemingly a reflection of the club’s payroll situation.
There’s also the fact that the Sox have a potential in-house replacement for Abreu already on the roster in the form of Andrew Vaughn. He is in just his second season in the majors and has hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115. That’s a bit below what Abreu has done in recent years, though Vaughn is still just 24 years old and could potentially still have room to grow.
There’s a big problem with Vaughn’s current role on the team, however, which is his glove. A first baseman in college and in the minors, Vaughn moved to the outfield due to Abreu already being entrenched as the team’s everyday option at first. The move has not suited Vaughn at all, as he’s produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.4 Ultimate Zone Rating is also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved is among the bottom five.
Due to that horrid work in the field, Vaughn is giving back all of his offensive production and then some. Despite being an above-average hitter, he’s actually been a sub-replacement level player this year, according to the calculations of FanGraphs. They say that Vaughn’s fWAR for the season is -0.4, while Baseball Reference has him at an even zero. Perhaps it’s worth it for the Sox to consider letting Abreu walk and moving Vaughn back to his natural position, as that would both allow Vaughn to become a more productive member of the team and also free up resources to address other areas of the roster.
Of course, the club could also consider re-signing Abreu and then trading Vaughn, though that path is a little less smooth. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at this year’s crop of free agent first basemen, with Abreu coming in at the top of the class alongside Josh Bell. Although Abreu is turning 36 in January, his continued success at the plate will surely lead to multi-year deals with a significant salary. Supposing Chicago does re-sign Abreu, they would then have to find a trade partner willing to give up cheap pitching for a first baseman, which may not be easy.
However it plays out, keeping the same arrangement in 2023 seems like something the Sox should avoid. Despite a roster loaded with talent, the club disappointed this year by slumping to an 80-80 record so far and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Defense was likely a big factor, as the team-wide DRS of -32 is one of the five worst in the league, their -16 OAA one of the ten worst and their -41.1 UZR dead last.
Rockies, José Ureña Interested In Reunion
Right-hander José Ureña has only been in the Rockies’ organization for a few months, but the relationship has evidently gone well so far. Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette relays that both he and the club are interested in continuing their arrangement in 2023.
“I said it first thing: I am so thankful for this organization, what they did for me,” Ureña said, as relayed by Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I’d be open. I like to play here.” Manager Bud Black seems as impressed by Ureña as the righty is with the team. “The way he’s thrown, we’re going to have a look at it when he goes into free agency,” Black says.
Ureña, 31, began the year in the Brewers’ bullpen, logging 7 2/3 innings over four appearances before getting designated for assignment in early May. After electing free agency, he signed a minor league deal with the Rockies and was eventually selected to the big league club in early July.
Since that time, Ureña has made 17 starts for the Rox with a 5.14 ERA. That’s obviously not a super impressive number, but it’s worth remembering the hitter-friendly reputation of Coors Field. Advanced metrics that take park factors into account have a slightly more favorable view of his work, with Ureña registering a 4.82 SIERA, 4.53 FIP and 4.45 xFIP since coming to Colorado. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy and this year is no exception, striking out 15.2% of batters faced, just below his career mark. His 50.3% ground ball rate is above-average, though, something he has long been able to accomplish. He’s also done a decent enough job at avoiding getting lit up this year, as he’s in the 59th percentile in terms of barrel rate and 56th percentile in terms of average exit velocity.
Due to the offensive orientation of their home park, the Rockies often face challenges convincing pitchers to come to the mountains. That makes it somewhat sensible for them to be interested in retaining any pitcher who finds any kind of success and is willing to take their money. However, it’s worth noting that we are talking about a mere 17 starts here and the numbers can change quickly. Back in July, it was reported that the club was interested in extending Chad Kuhl, who had a 4.78 ERA at the time. But he’s had very poor results since then, seeing his ERA climb up to 5.72 for the season.
Regardless, it’s possible that the club won’t be looking to throw huge money around this offseason, either on the rotation or elsewhere. They began this year with an Opening Day payroll of $131MM and have never been above $146MM in that department, with numbers from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. For next year, they’ve already got about $135MM on the books, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include the salaries of their arbitration-eligible players, who will surely add to that total. Unless the club wants to suddenly blow past their previous spending levels, they won’t have a ton to work with.
For next year’s starting rotation, with Kuhl and Urena both heading into free agency, two spots should be taken up by Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland. A third spot would go Antonio Senzatela if he were healthy, but he tore his ACL in August and might not be ready to go for Spring Training. Ryan Feltner has made 18 starts this year and could be in the mix for 2023, though he has a 6.01 ERA and still has options. There aren’t really any clear answers beyond that, with most of the club’s top pitching prospects currently in the lower levels of their farm system. Given all that uncertainty and the potential lack of available funds, it seems like they might be going into the offseason with their sights set on pitchers like Ureña.
