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Dodgers Claim Jake Reed Off Waivers From Mets

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The Dodgers announced that they have claimed right-hander Jake Reed off waivers from the Mets. The Mets had designated Reed for assignment a few days ago when they claimed Sam Clay. The Dodgers have had an open spot on their 40-man roster since designating Ian Gibaut for assignment last week.

This is a return to the Dodgers for Reed, as he made his MLB debut with the club last year. After throwing 5 1/3 innings with Los Angeles, he was claimed on waivers twice in a span of about a week, first going to the Rays and then to the Mets. He’ll now complete the circle by going back to the Dodgers.

In between all of these waiver claims, he’s managed to throw 16 1/3 MLB innings with a 6.61 ERA in that small sample. He has fared much better in the minors, especially in the strikeout department, which is likely why teams keep taking fliers on him. Going back to the start of last year, he’s thrown 43 1/3 innings in the minors with a 4.98 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He probably deserves better than that ERA, as he has a .353 BABIP in that time, which is well above average. That’s likely why FIP placed him at 3.97 for that span.

Reed, 29, can still be optioned for the remainder of this season and another season beyond that, making him a fairly sensible depth addition for a club that had an open roster spot.

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat announced the move shortly before the official announcement.

The Tigers Will Be Getting Plenty Of Calls About Their Bullpen

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Not much has gone right for the Tigers so far in 2022. They’re without the majority of their projected starting rotation. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery, while their other recent No. 1 overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, has looked overmatched in the big leagues so far. Javier Baez, who signed a $140MM contract over the winter, has had a roller coaster season en route to an overall .211/.248/.372 batting line. Their trio of productive veterans from the 2021 season — Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario and Robbie Grossman — are all struggling through arguably the worst seasons of their career.

The 2022 Tigers serve as a reminder that not all rebuilding efforts go as smoothly as the most famous success stories in Houston and Chicago, but for all the bleak outcomes thus far, they’ve had their share of successes. Tarik Skubal has struggled of late but looks like a bona fide mid-rotation starter or better through a half season of innings. Outfielder Riley Greene, the No. 5 overall pick in 2019, has ascended to the top of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings and held his own through his first 99 plate appearances. And perhaps most surprisingly, despite all the struggles in the rotation and the tax that typically takes on a team’s relief corps, the Tigers rank third in all of baseball with a collective 3.05 bullpen ERA.

Success from Detroit’s collection of relievers shouldn’t be a total surprise, though few would’ve expected quite this extent. Flamethrowing lefty Gregory Soto established himself as a quality ’pen option last year, and former Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer handled his early-2021 move to the bullpen fairly well. The Tigers brought in one of the more underrated free agents on the market this past offseason when they inked lefty Andrew Chafin to a two-year pact (the second season of which is a player option).

That said, the Tigers have gotten contributions from some fairly unexpected names. Joe Jimenez was once hailed as the closer of the future in Detroit, but he pitched his way out of a roster spot in 2021, when he was optioned to Triple-A on multiple occasions (for the first time since 2017). This year, he looks like the power arm he was always expected to be. Twenty-six-year-old righty Alex Lange, acquired in the 2019 trade that sent Nick Castellanos to the Cubs, has improved upon his 2021 rookie strikeout and walk rates, setting himself up as a potential long-term option in the late innings. Righty Will Vest, briefly lost to the Mariners via the Rule 5 Draft but thankfully (well, for the Tigers) returned midway through that season, has a 3.55 ERA in 33 frames (and a 2.25 mark if you set aside one fluky five-run meltdown). Starter-turned-reliever Tyler Alexander has a 1.06 ERA out of the ’pen — albeit with less convincing secondary marks.

There have been other contributors, but the overarching point here is that the Tigers have received unexpectedly sound contributions from their relief corps — including the expected veterans and some more controllable, young options alike. Over the next three weeks, those more experienced arms figure to be among the more popular names on the trade market. Let’s run through some of the possible names available…

Michael Fulmer, RHP, 29 years old ($4.95MM salary, free agent at season’s end)

Fulmer, in particular, seems a likely candidate to be moved. After injuries decimated the former rotation stalwart’s mid-20s, he’s returned as a shutdown option in the late innings, serving as the primary bridge to the hard-throwing Soto. Through 33 1/3 innings so far in 2022, Fulmer owns a 1.89 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.7% walk rate. Fulmer’s K-BB% could certainly stand to improve, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that he’s yielded just one earned run over his past 18 innings (0.50 ERA), punching out 30.1% of his opponents along the way.

Since moving to the ’pen on a full-time basis on May 5 of last season, Fulmer boasts a superlative 2.10 ERA with 23 holds, 16 saves, an above-average strikeout rate and walk/ground-ball tendencies that are only slightly below par. He’s limiting hard contact and barrels, averaging 95.3 mph on his heater and has generally looked the part of a quality late-inning arm. Fulmer is a free agent at season’s end, and his $4.95MM salary is generally affordable. It’d frankly be a surprise if the Tigers didn’t trade him.

Andrew Chafin, LHP, 32 years old ($5.5MM salary, $6.5MM player option for 2023)

As with Fulmer, it’d be a surprise if Chafin lasted in Detroit beyond the deadline — although the circumstances surrounding him are slightly different. He’s technically signed through the 2023 season, but next year’s $6.5MM guarantee comes in the form of a player option. Based on Chafin’s 2.30 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 50.8% ground-ball rate, it’d take a mammoth second-half collapse or a serious injury for him to opt into the second season of the contract.

At one point this winter it looked as though Chafin might’ve been a candidate to land a three-year deal, but the two-year pact and the player option likely mean he’ll come out ahead of where he’d have been with a straight three-year arrangement. Chafin just turned 32 last month, and this second straight dominant season proves two things: his shaky performance in 2020 was a small-sample fluke, and the huge gains he made in terms of his command appear to be sustainable.

Barring an unexpected collapse or the aforementioned injury scenario, Chafin seems like a lock to hit the market in search of either a three-year deal or a two-year pact with a higher annual value than his current $6.5MM level. Teams will view him as a likely rental, though the downside of being potentially “stuck” with him following an unforeseeable injury (due to that player option) could tamp down his value a slight bit.

Joe Jimenez, RHP, 27 years old ($1.785MM salary, arb-eligible through 2023)

Although he’s controllable beyond the current season and the Tigers are trying to put together a winning club, it’d be understandable if they were tempted to capitalize on the 27-year-old Jimenez’s bounceback from an awful 2020-21 stretch (6.35 ERA in 68 innings).

Jimenez looks every bit like the late-inning arm the Tigers foresaw earlier in his career. Last night’s pair of runs allowed did bump his ERA from 2.97 to 3.48, but Jimenez has punched out exactly one-third of his opponents and walked just 5.9% of them. This year’s 95.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-best mark, and Jimenez is tied for 25th among 173 qualified relievers when it comes to inducing chases off the plate (37.2%). With top-of-the-scale four-seam spin rate and excellent percentile rankings in most key Statcast metrics, Jimenez looks like he’s finally arrived — it just happened several years later than hoped.

Detroit will have a decision to make: cash in now and try to get max value when Jimenez has more than a season of club control remaining, or hold onto him and risk a return to his prior struggles. A healthy Jimenez could play a key role on what the Tigers’ front office surely hopes will be a more competitive 2023 team, but it’s also possible that he could be used as a part of a trade to acquire a more controllable piece who could contribute to that same club.

Wily Peralta, RHP, 33 years old ($2.5MM salary, free agent at season’s end)

Peralta revived his career with the 2021 Tigers and has enjoyed solid results out of the bullpen despite shaky command this season. He’s sporting a 2.16 ERA but also has a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate and a lofty 14% walk rate. Still, Peralta throws hard (95.6 mph average fastball), keeps the ball on the ground (48.4%) and has yielded roughly average levels of hard contact. He’s also a former starter who’s no stranger to working multiple innings.

Peralta is currently out with a hamstring injury, which further clouds his trade possibilities. Still, the asking price won’t be high, and there’s little reason for the Tigers not to move him, unless they simply don’t find an interested party willing to give anything up in return. But with the number of teams needing bullpen help and rotation depth, one would imagine a pitcher with a 3.57 ERA over his past 201 1/3 big league innings and a near-96 mph average on his sinker would drum up modest interest, sub-par command or not.

Gregory Soto, LHP, 27 years old ($722K salary, arb-eligible through 2025)

The longest shot among Tigers bullpen arms to be traded due to that remaining club control and the team’s stated desire to compete sooner than later, Soto is also the most tantalizing raw talent in the group. Lefties who average 98.6 mph on their fastballs aren’t exactly common, after all, and Soto’s 11.3% walk rate in 2022, while still well north of the league average, is the best of his career.

Soto doesn’t miss as many bats as one would expect for a pitcher with his raw stuff, and this year’s 24.1% strikeout rate is a career-low — due in no small part to a decrease in the usage of a slider that hasn’t been nearly as effective in 2022 as it was in prior seasons. In that sense, moving Soto would almost be “selling low” at this point, which is a counterintuitive thing to say about someone recently named to the All-Star team.

In all likelihood, it’s a moot point. The Tigers are aiming to compete as soon as next season, and they control Soto all the way through the 2025 campaign. It’d take a massive return for them to move him, and he’s listed here more because teams will likely try to pry him loose than because he actually has a chance to be moved.

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By the time Aug. 3 rolls around, it seems likely that Detroit will have found deals to their liking for Fulmer and Chafin at the very least. Jimenez, with just one season of club control remaining and some shaky performances in his recent track record, would seem a decent candidate to go as well. Peralta should move if healthy. The Tigers will undoubtedly get ample interest in the likes of Soto, Lange and some of their more controllable arms, but that’s tougher to envision.

It’s not the type of busy deadline that GM Al Avila and assistant GMs Jay Sartori, David Chadd and Sam Menzin hoped to have, but it seems likely that they’ll still be plenty active over the next 20 days.

Brewers Select Connor Sadzeck, Option Keston Hiura

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The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of righty Connor Sadzeck from Triple-A Nashville. Infielder Keston Hiura has been optioned to Nashville to open a spot on the active roster. Milwaukee already had an open 40-man spot after designating Chi Chi Gonzalez for assignment last night.

A promising prospect with the Rangers earlier in his career, the now-30-year-old Sadzeck hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2019. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery early in his minor league career and a flexor mass issue back in 2019, have slowed the right-hander and kept him off the mound for significant portions of his career.

When healthy, Sadzeck is a legitimately intriguing arm who boasts a triple-digit heater, impressive strikeout abilities and, as is often the case for flamethrowers like this, some problematic command issues. He’s pitched just 33 Major League innings and boasts a 2.18 ERA but a concerning 17.4% walk rate in that time. Sadzeck is currently sporting an outstanding 0.86 ERA and 30.7% strikeout rate in 28 Triple-A innings, however, and this year’s 10.5% walk rate is more manageable than several of his prior seasons.

Hiura, meanwhile, has gone from former first-round pick and potential building block to a defensively limited slugger who’s regularly optioned by the Brewers. He’s hitting .238/.354/.451 this season — solid overall production — but has also yet to rectify the alarming strikeout issues that have plagued him throughout his career. Hiura has fanned in a sky-high 43.8% of his plate appearances this season, making even that modest .238 average unsustainable. (He’s currently benefitting from a .412 BABIP.)

That said, the decision to option Hiura couldn’t have been an easy one. He’s been on a tear at the plate over his past 12 games, batting .324/.435/.595 with three long balls and a double in that time. For now, Hiura will return to Nashville and continue working to improve his bat-to-ball skills and overall plate discipline. In all likelihood, he’ll get another big league look (or multiple looks) between now and season’s end.

KBO’s Doosan Bears Sign Brandon Waddell, Release Ariel Miranda

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The Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization announced this week that they’ve signed lefty Brandon Waddell for the remainder of the 2022 season (hat tip: Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). Waddell, a client of Ballplayers Agency, will earn $230K between now and season’s end. Waddell had been pitching with the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate, but the Cards announced this morning that his contract has been sold to the Bears. Waddell will take the spot of reigning KBO MVP and former big leaguer Ariel Miranda, who has been released due to ongoing health issues in his left shoulder.

Signings of this nature are generally favorable for all parties involved. Waddell will be guaranteed a notable six-figure sum that trounces what he’d have earned by finishing out the season in Triple-A. He’d have needed to spend close to two months on the big league roster to earn that type of cash with the Cardinals, and there was no guarantee he’d be given that opportunity. The Cards, meanwhile, lose a bit of depth but receive a buyout for a player they might not have called to the Majors at all, and the Bears of course gain the rights to a pitcher who clearly intrigues them.

The 28-year-old Waddell is a former fifth-rounder of the Pirates who’s spent parts of two seasons in the big leagues, splitting his time between Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Baltimore. He’s logged just 12 2/3 total big league innings, yielding eight earned runs on 16 hits and 11 walks with nine strikeouts in that time.

Those grisly MLB numbers aside, Waddell has posted solid or better Triple- A numbers in three of his four seasons at that level. An 8.70 ERA in the juiced-ball 2019 campaign skews his overall numbers, but Waddell pitched to a 3.59 ERA in 135 1/3 innings there in 2018 and, since moving to the bullpen last year, has a 2.91 ERA with a 45-to-14 K/BB ratio in 43 1/3 innings of relief work.

The jump to the KBO will provide Waddell with some immediate earning power and also get a foot in the door for a potential second season overseas if he shows well in the second half of the 2022 KBO campaign. We’ve seen plenty of players in this mold carve out lengthy and lucrative careers pitching in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, and it’s always possible that improved production pitching in Asia will lead to an eventual big league return (as was the case with Miles Mikolas, Merrill Kelly, Chris Flexen and others in recent memory). The benefit is two-fold, as if Waddell can manage to pitch his way back into MLB consideration, he’d return as a free agent and thus be able to sign a Major League deal that is not beholden to the constraints of MLB’s arbitration system.

As for Miranda, the injuries are an obviously unfortunate development for a pitcher who, after 2022, looked like someone who could be on the cusp of an MLB return himself. The 33-year-old southpaw saw parts of Major League action in three seasons (2016-18) with the Orioles and Mariners, notching a 4.72 ERA in 223 innings along the way. He’s since had success in all three major Asian professional leagues — the KBO, Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League — with his 2021 season, in particular, generating intrigue.

Miranda racked up 173 2/3 innings of 2.33 ERA ball with the Bears last season, punching out a gaudy 31.7% of his opponents against a solid 8.8% walk rate. Last year’s 225 strikeouts were a KBO record, and Miranda parlayed that dominant showing into a $1.9MM payday that made him the second-highest paid foreign pitcher in the KBO, trailing only righty Drew Rucinski.

This year, however, Miranda made just three starts and totaled 7 2/3 innings with seven runs allowed and a staggering 18 walks, clearly demonstrating that he was never at full health. Now a free agent once again, Miranda will have options to consider, although it’s extraordinarily rare for a player to be released by a KBO club due to injury and then return to the KBO as a free agent, even with a different club. A return to NPB, the CPBL or perhaps a big league team (likely on a minor league deal) could still be options for Miranda this winter, health-permitting.

NHL Free Agency Begins Today

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Although it’s a few weeks late due to the lingering schedule effects of the COVID pandemic, the NHL free-agent period kicks off today at 11 AM CT. Pro Hockey Rumors (@prohockeyrumors on Twitter) has all-day coverage of the busiest and most exciting day in hockey.

Some teams were busy yesterday keeping their star players from hitting the open market. The Pittsburgh Penguins came in at the eleventh hour to re-sign franchise cornerstone Evgeni Malkin to a four-year deal, while the Edmonton Oilers were able to retain left wing Evander Kane, who led the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs in goals, on a four-year deal as well.

There’s still plenty of drama left to unfold today, however. After a 115-point season, former Calgary Flame Johnny Gaudreau is hitting the open market and is undoubtedly the top free agent available. Likely to earn eight figures on his next deal, does he head to the Eastern Conference as expected? After winning the Stanley Cup this season with the Colorado Avalanche, where do center Nazem Kadri and goalie Darcy Kuemper land?

To keep up with what’s sure to be a chaotic news day, make sure to keep up with Pro Hockey Rumors’ coverage of breaking news.

Rockies Unlikely To Be Major Deadline Sellers

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At 39-49, the Rockies are tied with the D-backs for last place in the National League West, sitting 18 games back from the division-leading Dodgers. Only eight teams in baseball have a worse winning percentage than Colorado, and several of those eight came into the 2022 season with no intention of competing as they progressed through rebuilds. The Rockies, as has become par for the course, seem to feel their club is underperforming and don’t envision a major sell-off. General manager Bill Schmidt replied with a simple “no” when asked by Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette if he expects to be a big seller at this year’s deadline.

It’s a familiar refrain for a Rockies club that has enjoyed just two winning seasons in the past decade and appears well on its way to a tenth sub-.500 finish in the past dozen seasons. The Rockies are 171-212 dating back to 2019 but have nevertheless generally eschewed even the trades of veterans on expiring contracts. They added Kevin Pillar and Mychal Givens at the 2020 deadline, for instance. The Rox eventually traded Givens last summer, but that was the sole deadline deal for a club that had Jon Gray, Trevor Story and C.J. Cron on expiring contracts — plus righty Daniel Bard, who is a free agent at the end of the current season.

On the one hand, it’s refreshing to see a team continue to try to turn its fortunes and win in the here-and-now without embarking on an arduous multi-year rebuild (which, in itself, is not the panacea it’s often framed to be). On the other, the Rox have continually expressed ardent belief that this core can be the nucleus of a winning club but have yet to see that faith manifest in the form of consistent wins on the field.

Zealous confidence in the core has been demonstrated through far more than just words. Colorado extended Cron, infielder Ryan McMahon, lefty Kyle Freeland, righty Antonio Senzatela and catcher Elias Diaz, traded for Randal Grichuk and signed Kris Bryant to an eye-popping seven-year deal in an effort to finally turn the corner this year. Smaller deals for Jose Iglesias, Alex Colome and Chad Kuhl were meant to further bolster the roster. But at with just 20 days until the trade deadline, they find themselves in a familiar spot, and the only names among those extensions and new acquisitions who’ve performed up to expectation are Cron, Kuhl, Colome and perhaps Iglesias.

Despite the lackluster results, Schmidt tells Allentuck that he “believe[s] in these guys,” adding confidence that the farm system will soon bring about some reinforcements. The Rox indeed have some nearly MLB-ready talent on the cusp of the Majors, but the system as a whole is ranked between 23rd and 25th among all 30 teams at each of Baseball America, MLB.com, The Athletic and ESPN. Schmidt, the scouting director-turned-GM, surely views his group more favorably, but as Allentuck explores in greater detail, nearly every one of the organization’s most promising pitching prospects has dealt with injuries of varying severity this winter.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Rockies should, at the very least, be open-minded about deals involving veterans who are set to be free agents at season’s end. That would include Bard, who’s been one of the better closers in the NL this season, as well as Kuhl, Colome, Iglesias and hard-throwing but mercurial righty Carlos Estevez.

However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Rox hope to sign the 37-year-old Bard to an extension rather than trade him. Allentuck notes that a deal between the two parties isn’t close but similarly suggests that an extension is likelier than a trade. While Nightengale wrote the Rockies could listen to offers on Kuhl, the right-hander himself tells Allentuck that he’s also open to an extension and would prefer to stay in one place rather than bounce around the league. Schmidt seemingly hinted at this when noting that the most commonly speculated trade candidates in Colorado “are the guys that want to stay here.” Based on the team’s recent rash of extensions, it’s certainly possible Kuhl re-signs on a new multi-year deal rather than changing hands in the next three weeks.

There’d obviously be plenty of risk associated with extending Bard or Kuhl. Bard is already 37, and although he’s whiffed 29.5% of opponents, limited hard contact and notched a career-best 56.4% ground-ball rate en route to a 2.14 ERA, his 2021 campaign (5.21 ERA in 65 2/3 innings) is a reminder of the overall volatility of relief pitching. Add in Bard’s age and still-ugly 12.2% walk rate, and there’s definite downside, strong as his results to date have been.

Kuhl, meanwhile, has a 4.02 ERA through 87 1/3 innings — a total that’s already the second-highest mark of the oft-injured righty’s career. The 29-year-old’s 16.9% strikeout rate ranks 71st of the 79 pitchers in MLB with at least 80 innings so far, and his 29.4% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranks 73rd. His 41.7% hard-hit rate is the highest mark he’s ever yielded. Perhaps the return wouldn’t be enough to justify a trade, and it can’t be ignored that it’s rare for free-agent pitchers to voice a willingness (or in this case, even a preference) to call Coors Field home.

Still, keeping Kuhl would effectively lock the 2023 Rockies into relying on the same rotation that has produced a 28th-ranked 5.06 ERA in 2022 (plus a 24th-ranked 4.47 FIP and 28th-ranked 4.58 SIERA). In doing so, they’d be betting heavily on improvements from German Marquez, Freeland and Senzatela — although with all three now signed to lucrative multi-year deals, there’s little choice but for the organization to hope for just that.

Last year’s deadline was Schmidt’s first in the GM chair after more than 20 years in other front office roles with the Rockies, so there was no precedent for how he’d approach the trade market. Now, between what we saw last summer and the latest comments to Allentuck, it seems likely to expect a conservative approach that’ll leave the bulk of the roster intact.

That would ostensibly set the stage for another offseason of win-now transactions for the Rockies, but there are payroll considerations to keep in mind as well. Assuming Charlie Blackmon picks up next year’s $10MM player option, they’ll already have $120.5MM in guarantees on the books. That doesn’t include potential salaries for extension candidates Bard and Kuhl, nor does it include arbitration raises for Austin Gomber, Brendan Rodgers, Tyler Kinley, Garrett Hampson and Robert Stephenson. All of that will push the Rockies much closer to their franchise-record $145MM payroll, meaning it’ll be incumbent for the current group to right the ship if they’re to truly turn their fortunes in future seasons.

An Under-The-Radar Controllable Starting Pitcher Trade Candidate

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The old saw that states “you can never have enough pitching” gets bandied about a lot at this time of year. With the trade deadline now three weeks away, just about every contender is looking to bolster its staff by adding an arm or two. Even the Yankees, who have managed to keep their five starters healthy enough to make 15 starts each so far, are in the Luis Castillo bidding.

Naturally, there’s been much attention on Castillo, along with his teammate Tyler Mahle and Oakland’s Frankie Montas. All three of them have been in trade rumors for a long time as their respective clubs have been paring back payroll. With Mahle and Montas both dealing with minor injuries, Castillo has understandably become the primary target, with the Cardinals, Mariners, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees and Blue Jays all having been publicly connected to his market in recent days. But even if the Reds do pull the trigger on a deal, only one of these teams will get the headline-grabbing prize, leaving the rest to turn to other options.

For teams that fall short on Castillo or the other big names, they might want to consider calling Kansas City about 26-year-old Brad Keller (turning 27 in a couple of weeks). He hasn’t been the subject of any trade rumors thus far, but he came in at #43 on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates. While he won’t be able to offer the same kind of ace-like upside, what he can provide is fairly reliable outcomes.

Nabbed by the Royals from the Diamondbacks in the 2017 Rule 5 draft (actually selected by the Reds and promptly traded to KC), Keller has been a mainstay of their pitching staff over the past 4 1/2 seasons. He doesn’t have overwhelming strikeout numbers, but generally avoids barrels and gets ground balls in order to consistently put up solid numbers. He’s appeared in 121 career games, throwing 591 2/3 frames with a 4.03 ERA. His career strikeout rate of 17.4% is a few ticks below average, which is 21.4% for starting pitchers this year. His 9.2% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 7.7% rate among starters. Then his 51.1% ground ball rate is well above the customary average range, which is at 42.6% this season.

Brad KellerThose numbers for Keller have also been fairly consistent year-over-year, with his strikeout rate always falling between 16.3% and 19.6%, his walk rate between 7.8% and 10.4%, with his grounder rate between 47.8% and 54.4%. But as a ground ball pitcher, the one thing that’s not consistent is BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Strikeout pitchers naturally have more control of their outcomes as they aren’t reliant on batted balls finding gloves and being fielded cleanly. A pitcher like Keller can be helped or harmed by randomness in this regard. For instance, in 2020, Keller’s BABIP dropped to .233, about 50 points below his previous seasons. That led to a career-best 2.47 ERA that year. However, the wheel of fortune spun him round the other way in 2021, as his BABIP shot up to .347 and took his ERA to 5.39.

It doesn’t seem like the BABIP gods can fully explain Keller’s poor 2021 season, as his barrel rate also increased. After limiting barrels to rates between 3.7 and 5.9% in his first three campaigns, it jumped to 10.9% last year. Keller has evened out here in 2022, though, with a .275 BABIP, 5.5% barrel rate and 4.15 ERA, all very close to his career norms. It’s also possible that he could improve on these numbers with a change of scenery to a team with better defense, depending on which advanced metric you prefer. The Royals as a team have -19 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th in the majors, though Outs Above Average has them 13th and Ultimate Zone Rating 6th.

Guys with fairly reliable ERAs just north of 4.00 maybe aren’t as exciting as the 2.92 that Luis Castillo currently owns, but they have the potential to be important pickups nonetheless. It’s worth remembering that while Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios got the headlines last year, the Cardinals were able to pick up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ, who stabilized their rotation and helped the club surge into the postseason.

Financially speaking, Keller is making $4.825MM this year and can be controlled for one more season via arbitration. Once the deadline rolls around, there will be less than $2MM of that to be paid out, making him an easy fit on just about every team’s budget. Of course, the Royals might want to hang onto him for the same reasons, especially considering their young starters have mostly disappointed this year. Of their pitchers that have made more than one start this year, Keller’s 4.15 ERA is actually the lowest among them, followed by Brady Singer’s 4.25 and Zack Greinke’s 4.52. With Greinke a free agent at season’s end, a Keller trade would leave the club with a lot of work to do on their rotation in the offseason.

General manager J.J. Picollo spoke to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star in the wake of yesterday’s Drew Waters trade and also spoke about the upcoming deadline. “We don’t feel the extreme need that we have to move any players,” he said. “We feel like we’re in a good spot. We know where the interest lies from other teams right now. Now, it’s a matter of them assessing how willing they are.” Based on those comments, it doesn’t seem like they’re planning any kind of drastic selloff. After all, they have been trying to compete in the past couple of seasons, just without success thus far. But with a 34-52 record that has them in the AL Central basement, they could perhaps extract more value from a prospect or two that can help them further into the future than an innings eater that’s approaching the open market.

If they are willing to consider a deal, they should get plenty of interest. The aforementioned Cardinals could look to Keller, like they looked to Lester and Happ last year. Their strong defense should work well with Keller’s ground ball approach and they will be without Jack Flaherty for the next couple of months. The Yankees already have strong upside in their rotation but might want a steady arm to make spot starts, allowing them to control the workloads of their front five and keep them healthy. They’re also leading the league in Defensive Runs Saved this year, making them a solid fit for a contact pitcher. The Giants are two games out of a playoff spot and might not want to give up big prospects to chase a Wild Card, but they could grab Keller to make up for the loss of Anthony DeSclafani and hope to stay in the race. The Blue Jays have a lopsided rotation with Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah at the front, but questions at the back due to the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu and struggles of Yusei Kikuchi. The Brewers are in a similar situation, with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the front, but injuries to Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser forcing them to lean on their depth for the back end. Ditto for the Phillies who have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler at the front but have Ranger Suarez and Zach Eflin on the IL. The Twins, Red Sox and Rays have all put starters on the IL in the past week or so, and more injuries are sure to pop up around the league in the weeks to come.

As mentioned, the Cardinals patched holes with Lester and Happ last year and went 22-7 in September. The Braves added Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall when they were below .500 but ended up winning the World Series. Keller alone isn’t likely to turn a team’s entire season around, but he’s a decent puzzle piece that could fit in a number of places. Making a splash at the deadline is great fun, but it can sometimes be the little additions that make the biggest difference.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Shawn Morimando Signs With KBO’s SSG Landers

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The SSG Landers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced last night they’ve agreed to terms with left-hander Shawn Morimando on a contract (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). He’ll receive a $230K salary for the final few months of the season.

Morimando, 29, has appeared in parts of two major league seasons. He debuted with Cleveland back in 2016, making a pair of appearances for the eventual American League champions. After a few years spent in the upper minors, he returned to the big leagues for a few on-and-off stints with the Marlins last year. He made four appearances and tallied 10 1/3 innings of 11-run ball. Morimando had a better showing with Triple-A Jacksonville, posting a 4.32 ERA across 89 2/3 frames.

Outrighted off Miami’s 40-man roster at the end of last season, Morimando signed on with the CTBC Brothers of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League. Through 91 1/3 innings there, he worked to a 2.56 ERA with a solid 23.1% strikeout rate and a quality 6.8% walk percentage. That earned him a look in the KBO, where he’ll presumably receive a pay bump.

In a corresponding move, the Landers released veteran starter Iván Nova. Reports emerged last week the club was looking to move on from the right-hander, who posted a 6.50 ERA across 12 outings. Morimando and the recently-signed Juan Lagares join Wilmer Font to comprise the allotted three foreign-born players on the Landers roster, while Nova heads back to the free agent market.

Alderson: Mets Seeking Another Bat, Bullpen Help

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The Mets dropped tonight’s contest against the Braves by a 4-1 score, shrinking their lead in the National League East to  1 1/2 games. At 54-34 with a +70 run differential, New York looks very likely to reach the postseason. Holding off Atlanta to secure a division title and a chance at a top-two seed in the NL (and the associated first-round bye under the new playoff format) is going to be of particular import for the club through the season’s second half.

New York heads into deadline season as obvious buyers, and team president Sandy Alderson shed some light on the club’s target areas today. Chatting with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post on The Show podcast, Alderson indicated the team was prioritizing adding another bat and bolstering the bullpen. He pointed specifically to designated hitter as an area that could be addressed, noting that New York hasn’t gotten the production they’d anticipated out of the position this season.

While he didn’t specifically single out any player who has underperformed in 2022, it’s not especially hard to read between the lines. Aside from quasi-rest days for star first baseman Pete Alonso, the Mets have given virtually all the DH playing time to the duo of J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith. Davis is hitting .240/.328/.353 through 192 plate appearances. Despite strong exit velocities, he’s compiled only 12 extra-base hits (including three home runs). Hitting for power is paramount for Davis, who’s not a strong defender anywhere and is striking out in north of 30% of his trips to the plate.

Smith has had an even tougher year, posting a .203/.281/.301 line in 139 tallies. He’s not connected on a single longball and spent some time on optional assignment to Triple-A Syracuse. Both Davis and Smith have pre-2022 track records of offensive productivity, but their combined .228/.313/.337 showing (entering Tuesday) hasn’t been sufficient for bat-first players.

Over the past few weeks, Heyman has linked the Mets to rental bats Trey Mancini and Nelson Cruz. With Alonso locked in at first base, interest in those players suggested the club was looking into DH possibilities. Alderson flatly stated there’s “probably an opportunity to improve there” and noted that the prospect acquisition cost for defensively-limited bats isn’t likely to be exorbitant.

That could also be true of the bullpen, which Alderson said “needs to be strengthened.” The prospect talent required to land relief help certainly varies depending on the target. Prying away Pirates star closer David Bednar, as an example, would take a massive haul. Yet there are various lower-impact relief arms with lesser windows of remaining control who’d not require a huge prospect return. Mike Puma of the Post suggests (on Twitter) that adding a left-hander could be particularly important; after releasing Chasen Shreve last week, the Mets are down to Joely Rodríguez as the sole southpaw in the bullpen.

Alderson didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets, but there are a number of middle or late-inning arms who look likely to be available. The Cubs (David Robertson and Mychal Givens) and Tigers (Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer and Joe Jiménez) both had multiple relievers placed among MLBTR’s top 50 trade candidates last week. Chafin is one of a handful of southpaws who could change hands, as are Rangers breakout hurler Matt Moore and the D-Backs Joe Mantiply.

While adding a bat and some relief pitching seem to be priorities, Alderson indicated the club didn’t feel a pressing need to address the starting rotation. He pointed to the high acquisition cost that’d be associated with landing an impact starter. Later in the conversation, New York’s president downplayed the possibility of dealing from the top of the farm system in any fashion. “We want to try to preserve the prospects we have,” Alderson told the Post. “We have to be careful about who we move, and for what reasons.” He name-checked catcher Francisco Álvarez and corner infielder Brett Baty as prospects the club was highly unlikely to deal. Alderson pointed to last season’s trade of former first-rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong for half a season of Javier Báez as a deal that dealt a big blow to the farm system in recognition of Crow-Armstrong’s excellent start to the 2022 campaign in Low-A.

The reluctance to deal from the top of the system jibes with a recent report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who wrote last week that the team was likelier to try to leverage their financial power than move top-tier young players. Alderson confirmed as much, saying they’d prefer to “err on the side of money, as opposed to the side of prospects” in trade talks. There’s no guarantee the opportunity to take on a higher-priced player will present itself, but the reluctance to deal from the top of the system seems to cast doubt on the chances of landing an impact starter in the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas mold.

That may also be true of catcher, where the Mets have gotten lackluster production this season. Willson Contreras is the clear top player available at the position, but the Cubs are sure to land a strong return. New York has James McCann under contract for the next two seasons, but the veteran hasn’t provided much at the plate and is currently on the injured list. That’s left the club to rely on the light-hitting duo of Tomás Nido and Patrick Mazeika.

Álvarez is viewed by most evaluators as the franchise’s catcher of the future, but he’s only 20 years old and was just promoted to Triple-A for the first time. Alderson expressed a desire for him to get extended reps against Triple-A pitching before he’d be considered for an MLB look. That’d seemingly leave catching to Nido and Mazeika until McCann returns, particularly with a thin market at the position. Tucker Barnhart and Kurt Suzuki are impending free agents on non-competitive teams, but neither has played well this season. Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino may have been trade candidates, but both suffered long-term injuries that take them out of that picture.

Latest On Orioles’ Deadline Outlook

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The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

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