Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
The Yankees just posted their 30th consecutive winning season and made the playoffs for a sixth straight year. Yet there’s an air of uncertainty hanging over the offseason, with a decent chunk of the roster reaching free agency, headlined by face of the franchise and AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Gerrit Cole, SP: $216MM through 2028. Can opt out after 2024 but team can void that by tacking on $36MM option for 2029.
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $160MM through 2027, including $10MM buyout on $25MM club option for 2028.
- DJ LeMahieu, IF: $60MM through 2026.
- Aaron Hicks, OF: $31.36MM through 2025, including $1MM buyout on $12.5MM club option for 2026.
- Josh Donaldson, 3B: $27MM through 2023, including $6MM buyout on $16MM mutual option for 2024.
- Harrison Bader, OF: $5.2MM through 2023.
Option Decisions
- Luis Severino, SP: $15MM club option with $2.75MM buyout.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $16MM player option
Total 2023 commitments (if Rizzo exercises option): $136.74MM
Total future commitments: $516.31MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Wandy Peralta (5.168): $3.1MM
- Frankie Montas (5.015): $7.7MM
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (5.000): $6.5MM
- Lou Trivino (4.163): $4.2MM
- Gleyber Torres (4.162): $9.8MM
- Clay Holmes (4.031): $2.9MM
- Jonathan Loáisiga (4.022): $2.1MM
- Domingo German (4.017): $2.6MM
- Lucas Luetge (4.015): $1.7MM
- Kyle Higashioka (4.005): $1.7MM
- Tim Locastro (3.122): $1.2MM
- Nestor Cortes (3.094): $3.5MM
- Jose Trevino (3.063): $2MM
- Michael King (3.004): $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Locastro
Free Agents
- Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Matt Carpenter, Jameson Taillon, Chad Green, Miguel Castro, Marwin Gonzalez, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman
It’s no real secret the big question facing the Yankees this winter is whether or not they can convince Aaron Judge to come back. Spring extension talks got a little bit awkward, with the slugger and the club failing to come to an agreement. General manager Brian Cashman took the unusual step of announcing the details of their offerJudge turned down, which was for $213.5MM over seven years, an average annual value of $30.5MM. Judge was reportedly looking for an AAV around Mike Trout‘s $36MM on a longer term.
Turning down a contract offer of that size was certainly risky, as many things could have gone wrong for Judge in 2022, including a serious injury. However, the bet paid off in about the best way imaginable, as he ended up having an outstanding season. Not only did he hit 62 home runs and set a new American League record in that category, he also flirted with a Triple Crown, stole 16 bases, played about half the year in center field and got good marks in the process. His final slash line of .311/.425/.686 amounts to goofy-looking numbers like a 207 wRC+ and a 211 OPS+. He was worth 11.4 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs and 10.6 from Baseball Reference. That fWAR total hasn’t been seen since from a position player since Barry Bonds. And if you’re the type that wants to ignore Bonds, you’re going back to Mickey Mantle in the late ’50s.
There’s no doubting Judge will get paid more than what he turned down, the question is who will pay him. Judge has been quite tight-lipped about his preferences, but that hasn’t stopped people from speculating. Some will point to the boos he received during the Yankees’ frustrating postseason and suggest perhaps Judge would prefer to go to the Giants, further from the pressures of New York and closer to his Bay Area family. Others suggest there’s no way the Yankees will allow the PR nightmare of letting their best player be pried away from them. The Dodgers are always a threat and are reportedly willing to move Mookie Betts to second base in order to fit Judge into the picture. Much ink will be spilled and many clicks will be generated until we know the correct answer.
The Yankees certainly have the payroll to make it happen if they want. Roster Resource estimates they’re currently slated to spend about $192MM next year. Picking up Severino’s option would add $12.25MM but Rizzo’s likely opt-out will subtract $16MM, getting them just under the $190MM mark. However, the club could then give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $19.65MM this year. If he were to accept, the payroll would climb to about $210MM.
Their Opening Day payroll in 2022 was $246MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to cap their 2023 spending around this year’s levels, they should have close to $60MM to work with, or around $40MM if Rizzo accepts the QO. Given that Judge’s home run chase generated plenty of ticket sales, merchandise sales and TV ratings, there’s certainly an argument for a bump. Also, the Yankees have been usurped as the big dog on the block, getting outspent by the Dodgers and Mets this year. Perhaps they would feel the time is right to retake that throne in order to retain such a special player.
However, baseball games aren’t won by individuals and the club will also need to think about the rest of the roster. The outfield is currently set to lose both Judge and Andrew Benintendi to free agency, leaving the options on the grass looking a little thin. Deadline acquisition Harrison Bader will be in center and sure to provide excellent defense as well as adequate offense, or perhaps better. Aaron Hicks is still around but he hasn’t been both healthy and good at the same time since 2018. The Yankees would probably love to find a way to move him, but shedding any notable portion of the roughly $30MM remaining on his contract looks unlikely. At the very least, they’d presumably want to keep him in a fourth outfield role if they can’t find a trade partner. Giancarlo Stanton is mostly a designated hitter, taking the field in 38 games in 2022, his highest such total since 2018. He turns 33 this month and can’t really be counted on for anything more than occasional stints on the grass.
Oswaldo Cabrera was an infielder in the minors but learned outfield on the fly in order to help the team out down the stretch. He had a nice debut but in a small sample of just 44 games. Estevan Florial has shown promise in the minors but hasn’t yet been able to transfer that to the majors. He’ll be out of options next year and will need a spot on the active roster or have to be designated for assignment. Tim Locastro has wheels but is best suited for a bench/pinch runner role since his bat hasn’t shown enough to earn a regular gig. If Judge is indeed compelled to return, then things look much better. He can slot into right field next to Bader, with some combo of Hicks, Cabrera, Stanton and Florial covering left. Without him, it obviously needs addressing, with the Yanks then having to turn to lesser options like Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson or Mitch Haniger. Even with Judge, the Yanks might be wise to add to this crew in order to bump Hicks down the depth chart and free up Cabrera to play the infield.
There are also some question marks on the infield. A year ago, the Yankees steered clear of the big free agent shortstops, evidently quite confident that prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe could eventually take over the position. To that end, they acquired a placeholder in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who had a typical season for him, combining strong defense with subpar offense. However, some defensive miscues put a dent in his postseason playing time. Peraza had a strong season in Triple-A and got up to the big leagues by the end of the year, appearing in 18 regular season games as well as three in the postseason. Volpe spent most of the year in Double-A but got up to Triple-A by season’s end. Neither Peraza nor Volpe has done enough to guarantee themselves the job just yet, which means it makes sense to tender IKF a contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility. If he is eventually leaped on the depth chart by one of the young guns, he can then slide into a utility role. There’s also the presence of Cabrera, who could be in this mix if he’s not needed in the outfield. Given those various options, it’s possible the Yanks will avoid yet another big free agent shortstop market. If they are confident enough in the youngsters, they could even consider trading Kiner-Falefa, though that certainly comes with risk.
Elsewhere on the infield, Anthony Rizzo had a strong season and seems likely to opt out of his deal, especially with the new shift ban set to help him out going forward. As mentioned earlier, it’s possible he receives and accepts a qualifying offer, which will be determined shortly after the offseason begins. Second base should be taken by Gleyber Torres, who bounced back at the plate after a rough 2021 where he lost the shortstop job for good. Given his escalating arbitration salary, it’s possible the Yankees consider trading him for help elsewhere (they reportedly discussed him with the Marlins in talks surrounding Pablo Lopez this summer) and then use one of their shortstop candidates at the keystone.
Josh Donaldson was solid in the field but saw his wRC+ drop to 97, his first time being below 117 since 2012. His strikeout rate also jumped up to 27.1%, easily the worst of his career, outside of a cup of coffee way back in 2010. He’s about to turn 37 and the club will have to wonder if they need to cut bait before he potentially declines even further. Due $27MM next year (including a buyout on a 2024 option), he certainly won’t have any trade appeal. The Yankees will have to determine whether it’s worthwhile to eat the majority of his contract to move him or bring him back and hope for stronger results.
Despite an injury-marred finish, it was a solid season for DJ LeMahieu. He could potentially replace Rizzo at first base but could also man the hot corner if the Yanks find a way to move Donaldson. Then again, since he’ll turn 35 next year, perhaps it would be wise to keep him in the utility role so that he doesn’t have to be counted on for everyday work. As 2022 showed, the Yanks can win games with a rotation of Rizzo, Torres, IKF and Donaldson with LeMahieu getting work all over. In 2023, the contributions of Cabrera, Peraza and Volpe should grow, which will help. It wouldn’t be insane to keep the group together, but they could also look to other options. The first base market features plenty of solid veterans like Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Trey Mancini and Brandon Belt. The third base market is mostly composed of utility types like Jace Peterson and Aledmys Diaz.
Behind the plate, it’s likely the Yankees feel content with what they have. They decided to move on from the Gary Sanchez era and acquired a glove-first option in Jose Trevino. The bet seems to have paid off, at least in terms of defensive work. Trevino posted 21 Defensive Runs Saved, earned a 19.1 from the FanGraphs framing metric and was the Fielding Bible award winner behind the plate. Both of those numbers were the highest in all of baseball, allowing Trevino to be worth 3.7 fWAR despite hitting around league average for a catcher. Kyle Higashioka wasn’t quite as strong as Trevino but was still above-average on defense. For next year, they could target a bat-first catcher like Willson Contreras, or someone like Sean Murphy, who is good with the bat and the glove. But it doesn’t seem like that should be their highest priority since Trevino and Higashioka are both solid and set for modest arbitration salaries.
Turning to the rotation, the starting staff could be losing a valuable contributor in Jameson Taillon, but it should still be in good shape. Gerrit Cole led the majors in strikeouts again and will be back for more. Severino bounced back from three mostly lost seasons to have a fairly healthy campaign in 2022. He spent some time on the IL but still got over 100 innings after only pitching 18 total frames over 2019-2021. He’ll have his option picked up and will be around next year. Nestor Cortes Jr. will look to build on an excellent breakout campaign. Frankie Montas dealt with shoulder issues after being acquired from the A’s but will hopefully be healthy and back to his old self. They also have Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt as decent options for the back end. They’ll haver to decide whether to make Taillon a qualifying offer and, if they either opt against it or he declines, if they want to try to bring him back on a multi-year deal.
In the bullpen, the Yanks will see a couple of notable veterans moving on, as both Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton are slated for free agency. Also, Chapman and the team seemed to have a falling out after he skipped a team workout that occurred as the Yankees were waiting to see who they would face in the ALDS, and it seems highly unlikely he’ll be back. A Britton return is possible, but he’s no sure solution after two injury-plagued seasons. Miguel Castro and Chad Green are also heading to the open market, though Green is likely to miss at least part of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. The bullpen will also be without deadline acquisition Scott Effross, who required TJS in October.
With those subtractions, the remaining relievers include Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Wandy Peralta, Lou Trivino, Ron Marinaccio and others. There are certainly some solid arms in there, but there’s also room for some improvements. Holmes seemed to have the closer’s job on lock before scuffling midseason but then finishing strong. The top of the relief market will be Edwin Diaz, but there will be plenty of other available hurlers who could make sense, including Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Brad Hand, Chris Martin or Rafael Montero.
As for who’s running the ship, there doesn’t seem to be much doubt there. Cashman is in the final few months of his contract but that doesn’t appear to be an issue. The last time this happened was 2017 and a new contract wasn’t hammered out until December of that year. It seems he’ll eventually get the paperwork sorted to stick around; Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested that’s the likeliest outcome earlier this week. Manager Aaron Boone is under contract for 2024 with a club option for 2025. Some fans have called for his head after the disappointing playoff performance of the club, but Boone recently got a vote of confidence from owner Hal Steinbrenner.
All in all, there are many questions facing the Yankees this winter. Will they trade any of Donaldson, Hicks or IKF? How much do they spend on the bullpen, and do they get a proven closer? Is Rizzo back or do they need to address first base? But those all seem like trivial matters when compared to the massive question at the center of everything. Will Aaron Judge return to the only organization he’s ever known, or will he swap out the pinstripes for something new? It’s the biggest question of the offseason — not just for the Yankees, but for the entire league.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Yankees-centric chat on 11-4-22. Click here to read the transcript.
Starling Marte Undergoes Surgery To Address Core Muscle Injury
The Mets announced to reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday, that outfielder Starling Marte underwent surgery on Tuesday to address a core muscle injury he sustained in the second half of 2022. He is expected to be “without restriction” by Spring Training and Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that the standard recovery time is about eight weeks. Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports relays that this is related to a groin injury he sustained in June.
Signed in the offseason to a four-year, $78MM deal, Marte’s first year as a Met resulted in another strong season at the plate. He hit .292/.347/.468 for a wRC+ of 136, indicating he was 36% better than the league average hitter. The injury didn’t seem to hamper him much, as Marte’s month-to-month numbers were fairly steady until September, when a finger fracture limited him to just five games.
It doesn’t seem as though the Mets have reason to be terribly concerned about Marte going forward, given the timeline. Eight weeks from now would be around the time the calendar flips to 2023, giving Marte plenty of time to ramp up physical activities prior to the beginning of Spring Training in February.
Nonetheless, it is a situation worth monitoring given the outfield picture of the Mets. Incumbent center fielder Brandon Nimmo is a few days away from becoming a free agent, creating an opening up the middle. Some have wondered whether Marte could simply slide over to fill that gap, given his previous center field experience.
General manager Billy Eppler recently spoke on the subject, saying that the Mets are willing to play Marte up the middle. However, that path is not without risk. Marte is now 34 years old and a year removed from regular playing time in center, having spent most of 2022 in right. The year before, the advanced defensive metrics weren’t exactly wowed by his work in center, as he was pegged with a -4 by Defensive Runs Saved, 0.9 by Ultimate Zone Rating and zero Outs Above Average.
Perhaps it will end up being a moot point, since the Mets are reportedly making it a priority to retain Nimmo. Though if Marte’s progress is at all delayed, it might only increase the club’s desire to bring Nimmo back and keep Marte in right field.
A’s Claim Yonny Hernandez From Diamondbacks
The Athletics announced that they have claimed infielder Yonny Hernandez off waivers from the Diamondbacks. Additionally, the club has outrighted infielder Nate Mondou, left-hander Sam Selman and righties Austin Pruitt, Norge Ruiz, and Collin Wiles. The Diamondbacks also announced the claim of Hernandez, while relaying that infielder Jake Hager and right-hander Keynan Middleton cleared waivers and elected free agency.
This is one of the times on the baseball calendar when roster turnover is high, for a couple of reasons. First, there is no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning that players on the 60-day IL will soon be retaking their spots. Secondly, the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft is November 15. Those two factors both combine to squeeze certain players off rosters and onto waivers.
Hernandez, 25 in May, had spent all of his career in the Rangers organization until being traded to the D-Backs in April. He got into 12 MLB games this year, spending much more time in the minors. He hit .241/.349/.324 in 71 Triple-A games this year, wRC+ of 78. That’s not an especially impressive showing, but Hernandez fared much better in previous seasons and has always had good plate discipline. Despite the rough year, he still walked in 11.7% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 15.8% of them, with both of those numbers being much better than average. He’s never hit for much power though, having only hit five home runs in a minor league career that dates back to 2015. He still has options, meaning the A’s can keep him in the minors next year and try to see if they can draw something extra out of him.
Mondou, 28 in March, was just selected to the roster in October. He made his MLB debut by getting into one game where he made three hitless plate appearances, walking once and striking out once. In 108 Triple-A games, he hit .283/.374/.431 for a wRC+ of 105. Given his seven years of minor league experience, he will be eligible to elect free agency five days after the World Series.
Selman, 32 this month, has thrown 73 MLB innings over the past four seasons. He has a 4.81 ERA in that time with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 29.6% ground ball rate. He cut his walk rate to 6.7% in 2022 but also gave up four home runs in just 18 1/3 innings, leading to a 4.91 ERA. He’s eligible to elect free agency by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.
Pruitt, 33, signed a minor league deal with the A’s for 2022 and was twice selected to the roster with one DFA in between. He got into 55 1/3 innings on the season and registered a 4.23 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 4% rate and also got grounders on 45.5% of balls in play. He’s eligible to elect free agency both on account of his previous outrights and more than three years of service time.
Ruiz, 29 in March, was once a high-profile signing out of Cuba but saw his stock fade in recent years. A switch from starting to relieving in 2019 seemed to give him a boost, leading to him getting to make his MLB debut in 2022. He tossed 19 innings with a 7.11 ERA, though a .413 batting average on balls in play could indicate there’s some bad luck in there. He had a much nicer 3.73 ERA in 41 Triple-A innings. He should stick with the A’s as depth but without taking up a roster spot.
Wiles, 29 in May, got the call to the big leagues for the first time in September. He was able to log 9 2/3 MLB innings while putting up a 4.66 ERA in that small sample. He worked as a starter in the minors, logging 143 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.40 ERA. He limited walks to a 4.3% rate but was undone by 27 long balls in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Hager, 30 in March, appeared in 28 big league games for Arizona this year, hitting .240/.345/.280 in that time for a wRC+ of 84. He had fairly similar results in 72 Triple-A games, adding a bit more pop but walking less. He’s eligible to elect free agency based on the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career.
Middleton, 29, has appeared in each of the past six seasons, spending time with the Angels and Mariners before suiting up with the Diamondbacks in 2022. He tossed 17 innings in the majors and another 17 in Triple-A this year, with better results in the minors. He had a 5.29 ERA in the bigs along with a 2.12 ERA for Reno. He is eligible to elect free agency both because of he has more than three years of MLB service time and a previous career outright.
Outright Assignments: Wallach, Ellis
2:10 pm: The Angels announced that Wallach has elected free agency.
1:05 pm: The latest outright assignments from around baseball…
- The Angels outrighted catcher Chad Wallach to Triple-A, as per the club’s MLB.com transactions page. It isn’t known if he’ll accept the assignment or not, but since this isn’t the first time Wallach has been outrighted, he can opt to reject the Angels’ assignment in favor of free agency. Wallach was claimed off waivers from the Dodgers in August 2021, and he played in 12 games with Anaheim this season when Max Stassi and Kurt Suzuki were on the injured list. Best known for his time with the Marlins, Wallach has appeared in parts of the last six MLB seasons, and has a reputation as a solid defensive catcher and game-caller. At the plate, Wallach has hit .198/.265/.296 over 271 PA and 90 games in the majors.
- The Mariners announced that Drew Ellis was outrighted off their 40-man roster, and the infielder was assigned to Triple-A after clearing waivers. This is first time Ellis has been outrighted, and since he also lacks the prerequisite MLB service time or seven seasons in the minors, he cannot elect free agency. The 26-year-old came to Seattle via waiver claim off the Diamondbacks roster in June, though he only appeared in a single MLB game in a Mariners uniform. Making his Major League debut with the D’Backs in 2021, Ellis has played in 35 games in the Show, with a .482 OPS over an even 100 plate appearances. Arizona selected Ellis in the second round of the 2017 draft, and his minor league numbers improved after a promotion to Triple-A in 2021, but his production declined again this past season. Ellis brings some infield depth with his experience at first, second, and third base during his minor league career.
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Receive For Losing A Qualified Free Agent
Earlier today, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes outlined what each team would have to surrender as compensation if it signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. Now, let’s take a look at what each team would receive in return if one of their free agents turned down a QO and signed with another club. (As a reminder, players can’t be issued a qualifying offer more than once during their careers, and this year’s QO is set for $19.65MM.)
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays
If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of the draft. That means a pick that could fall within the top 30, since the Mets’ and Dodgers’ first selections dropped out of the first round because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM. If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (roughly 75th-80th overall).
This winter’s free agent class doesn’t consist of many players who are plausible QO candidates from any of these team, except for possibly Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. If Seattle did issue Haniger a qualifying offer, however, the compensation issue might still be a moot point since there is a chance Haniger might just accept the offer (after an injury-shortened season) and remain with the M’s.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals
For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).
Dansby Swanson (Braves), Willson Contreras (Cubs), and Carlos Rodon (Giants) will all surely receive qualifying offers. Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado would’ve also been an obvious pick, except he chose to avoid free agency altogether in deciding to not opt out of his contract.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres
If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2023 draft. That roughly works out to around the 140th overall pick in the draft, so it’s a pretty noteworthy drop from the 75-80 range from the previous grouping.
The penalty is more significant in this particular offseason, given how many of these teams have very prominent free agents that will surely receive qualifying offers. The Yankees have Aaron Judge, the Dodgers have Trea Turner and maybe Tyler Anderson, the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts and probably Nathan Eovaldi, and the Mets have a full quartet — Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo.
Exceeding the tax line can be seen as the cost of doing business, given how five of the six payors made the playoffs and the Phillies are competing for the World Series. For the Red Sox, however, crossing the CBT threshold is doubly painful, as Boston didn’t even post a winning record in 2022.
Pirates Promote Mendy Lopez To Coaching Staff
The Pirates will be adding Mendy Lopez to their big league coaching staff, according to Antonio Puesan, digital marketing director for the Toros del Este club in the Dominican Winter League (Twitter link). Lopez isn’t replacing anyone on the Pirates’ current staff, but Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets that Lopez will be focusing on infield coaching duties. Bench coach Don Kelly frequently works with the Bucs’ infielders, but he’ll now have one less duty on his plate with Lopez joining the coaching ranks.
Lopez joins a Major League staff for the first time, after working as the hitting coach with Pittsburgh’s lower A-ball affiliate. The 49-year-old previously spent four seasons as the Pirates’ field coordinator in Latin America, as well as three seasons as a manager with the Pirates’ Dominican Summer League squad.
Fans may best remember Lopez from his playing days, as he spent seven seasons in the majors from 1998-2004. Most of that time was spent with the Royals, but Lopez also spent parts of two seasons in Pittsburgh, suiting up for 25 games with the Bucs in 2001-02. Lopez’s playing career extended well beyond his time in the majors, as he also played with the KBO League’s Samsung Lions in 2004, and then with multiple Mexican League teams from 2006-13.
White Sox To Hire Charlie Montoyo As Bench Coach
NOVEMBER 3: At today’s press conference introducing Grifol, GM Rick Hahn told reporters (including The Athletic’s James Fegan) that Montoyo, Katz, and Hasler would be on the coaching staff. The White Sox will be looking outside the organization to fill the bulk of the other coaching roles.
NOVEMBER 1: The White Sox landed on their new skipper this morning, with various reports indicating that Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol will take over the dugout. Grifol has apparently already tabbed his top lieutenant. Former Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo will join Chicago’s staff as bench coach, as first reported on Twitter by Northbrook Bob.
It could be the start of a significant coaching staff overhaul on the South Side, as Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweeted this morning that a number of the members from Tony La Russa’s staff will not return. Pitching coach Ethan Katz is a seeming exception, as Rosenthal notes he’s expected back for a third season. Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times hears the same and reports that bullpen coach Curt Hasler is likely to stick around as well. The rest of the staff makeup seems to be up in the air.
Most notably, that includes now-former bench coach Miguel Cairo. The longtime big league infielder was hired as La Russa’s right-hand man going into the 2021 season. He spent two years as Chicago’s bench coach and took over as acting manager at the end of this past season when La Russa stepped away to attend to the health problems that eventually led him to vacate the managerial position. Cairo got an interview from the Sox for the full-time managerial position, but he obviously didn’t land that job. Now, it’s an open question whether he’ll return to the organization in any capacity.
Montoyo adds an experienced voice to the Chicago coaching staff. The 57-year-old has coached or managed in the majors for the past seven years. After more than a decade and a half managing in the Rays farm system, Montoyo got a bump to the MLB staff as Kevin Cash’s bench coach heading into the 2016 campaign. He held the role for three seasons before the Blue Jays hired him as their skipper over the 2018-19 offseason.
The Puerto Rico native managed the Jays for three-plus seasons, leading Toronto to a playoff berth in 2020. The Jays narrowly missed the postseason last year. Toronto started the 2022 campaign 46-42 and held a playoff spot as the All-Star Break approached, but the Jays decided to go in another direction and fired Montoyo on July 13. Bench coach John Schneider was promoted and guided the team to a 46-28 record down the stretch, clinching a Wild Card berth before losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Mariners.
Montoyo’s past bench coach and managerial experience should be welcome for Grifol, who’ll manage an MLB team for the first time. He and the front office figure to build out the remainder of his staff over the coming weeks. Hitting coach Frank Menechino, assistant hitting coach Howie Clark and base coaches Daryl Boston and Joe McEwing are among those who appear to have uncertain futures as the Sox shuffle their staff.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Cleveland Guardians
Click here to read the transcript of today’s Guardians-related live chat, in conjunction with our recent Offseason Outlook post about Cleveland’s possible offseason plans.
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA allowed for the creation of an international amateur draft. As this was something MLB was pushing for, the proposed tradeoff was the elimination of free agent compensation. The two sides reached their overall CBA in March, but included a July 25th deadline for the possible international draft/free agent compensation trade. The two sides failed to reach an agreement by that July deadline, so the qualifying offer system for free agent compensation that was agreed to 11 years ago remains in place.
The qualifying offer is set at $19.65MM this offseason, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO. Certain star free agents, including Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, are locks to receive and turn down a qualifying offer. A dozen others could easily join them.
If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres
If any of these six teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays
These 14 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. The Twins and Mariners are realistic possibilities to sign a qualified free agent, while the Orioles and a few other revenue sharing recipients may lurk as dark horses.
All Other Teams: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals
These 10 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.
What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.
White Sox Name Pedro Grifol Manager
TODAY: The White Sox have officially announced Grifol’s hiring.
NOVEMBER 1: The White Sox’ managerial search has reportedly drawn its conclusion, as they’re set to hire a longtime division foe: Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol. A formal announcement is expected later this week. Changes to the coaching staff are also expected on the heels of a disappointing season, though pitching coach Ethan Katz will reportedly remain in his current role.
Grifol, 53 later this month, has been with the Royals organization since 2013 and has served as a quality control coach, catching coach and bench coach along the way. He’s also spent extensive time in the Mariners organization, where he spent three seasons as a minor league manager before being named the club’s coordinator of minor league instructor and, eventually, director of minor league operations.
Prior to his work with the Mariners and Royals organizations, Grifol had a nine-year playing career. Selected by the Twins out of Florida State University in the sixth round of the 1991 draft, Grifol spent five seasons as a catcher in the Twins’ system and another four in the Mets’ system. He reached Triple-A with both clubs but never cracked the Majors before ending his playing career following the 1999 season.
While this will be Grifol’s first managerial gig in the Majors, he’s long been seen as a future manager. He also interviewed with the Marlins this offseason and has previously interviewed with the Tigers in 2020, the Giants in 2019 and the Orioles in 2018. Grifol landed a pair of interviews with San Francisco during that offseason’s search and was reportedly among the finalists before the team ultimately chose Gabe Kapler. Grifol was on the Royals’ coaching staff for the organization’s consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15 — with the latter season, of course, culminating in a World Series victory.
The Grifol hiring comes on the heels of a two-year stint that saw the White Sox bring Hall of Fame skipper Tony La Russa out of retirement to manager the club. That decision was widely believed to have been made directly by owner Jerry Reinsdorf going over the head of his front office, but the hiring of Grifol this time around likely came more directly from the front office. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Grifol impressed all parties with the ChiSox and was viewed by Reinsdorf, executive vice president Kenny Williams and general manager Rick Hahn as the best candidate.
Skeptics of the hiring can perhaps point to the fact that Grifol was twice passed over as a managerial candidate by the Royals themselves, though the first time around it appeared as though Mike Matheny was always the clear heir-apparent to Ned Yost upon the latter’s retirement. This offseason, the Royals perhaps simply wanted a fresh voice from outside the organization after an ownership change in 2019, the dismissal of longtime president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and the aforementioned ousting of Matheny. The two clubs are also simply at different points in their competitive cycles and may thusly prefer different traits from their newly minted skippers.
While the Sox also interviewed Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Astros bench coach Joe Espada and even sat down with Ozzie Guillen about a second managerial stint on the South Side, Grifol will instead get his long-awaited first opportunity. He’ll step right into a win-now club and, given the inflated stated of the ChiSox’ payroll, likely be tasked with overseeing a similar group and coaxing better results than the team mustered in 2022. That’s not to say there won’t be any changes — longtime first baseman Jose Abreu is likely to sign elsewhere, and the Sox have potential needs at second base and in the outfield — but unlike many new skippers who step onto rebuilding clubs, Grifol should be dealt a better hand in terms of the roster he’ll inherit.
ESPN’s Buster Olney and Marly Rivera first reported that Grifol had been chosen as the White Sox’ new manager (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Sox are expected to retain Katz but make broader-reaching coaching changes.