The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline
As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?
Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon‘s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.
2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop
While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.
3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms
As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.
Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura
As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.
The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.
The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.
Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.
There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.
The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.
Bloom: Bogaerts Remains Red Sox’s Preferred Option At Shortstop
The Red Sox and star shortstop Xander Bogaerts didn’t agree on a contract extension before the start of the offseason. The four-time All-Star officially opted out of the final three years on his deal with Boston this morning, sending him to the open market for the first time in his career. The Sox still have exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts through Thursday, but there’s little question at this point his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon be in contact with other teams.
Speaking with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this evening, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that retaining Bogaerts would be the Sox’s ideal choice for addressing shortstop. “We want him here. He makes us better,” Bloom said. “We respect his right to exercise [the opt-out] and to explore the market. We want him back and we will stay engaged with him.”
Boston’s baseball operations leader acknowledged the presence of a few other star free agent shortstops — namely Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. While Bloom suggested the team would explore the market for potential alternatives, he didn’t mince words when expressing the front office’s overall preference. “He’s our first choice. That’s not going to change,” he told reporters. “Part of our jobs is to explore every option to field a contending team next year and put together a really good group. We need to explore every possible way to do that, but Bogey’s our first choice.”
Bloom indicated he believes either Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández would be capable of playing shortstop if necessary but made clear the team would prefer to keep them at other positions to keep Bogaerts around. Story moved to second base this past season. While he’d played his whole career at shortstop with the Rockies prior to this year, Story has spoken about his desire to stick at the keystone if it means the Red Sox re-sign their longtime shortstop. That’d presumably keep Hernández in center field primarily, with the lackluster free agent market at that position seemingly playing a role in Boston’s decision to keep the utilityman around with a $10MM contract extension on Labor Day.
Of course, this is far from the first time Sox’s brass has gone on record about their affinity for Bogaerts. Immediately after the season, Bloom called re-signing the four-time Silver Slugger winner before free agency the team’s top priority. That obviously didn’t happen, and Speier writes that while the sides did have some discussions after the season wrapped up, it became clear fairly early on they wouldn’t get a deal done before the opt-out date.
Boston is sure to kick off the offseason by tagging Bogaerts with a qualifying offer. They’d receive only minimal compensation if he were to sign elsewhere, however. Because the Red Sox exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this past season, they’d add only an extra draft choice after the fourth round. Conversely, signing a player like Turner or Swanson who rejects a qualifying offer from another team — Correa is ineligible to receive a QO because he’s previously received one in his career — would lead Boston to forfeit both their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft and $1MM in international signing bonus space. Certainly, the front office will weigh their long-term projections of each of the top free agents more heavily than the draft choices in deciding how to proceed, but they’d pay a heavier draft penalty for adding either Swanson or Turner than they would for retaining Bogaerts (and thus forfeiting the compensatory pick).
Bogaerts heads into his age-31 season coming off a .307/.377/.456 mark through 631 plate appearances. His power production dipped relative to his best seasons, but he hit above .285 with an on-base percentage at .360 or better for the fifth straight year. He also earned slightly above-average marks from public defensive metrics, an important step towards quieting some concerns he’ll have to move off shortstop in the relatively near future.
Hall Of Fame Announces 2023 Era Committee Candidates
The National Baseball Hall of Fame this morning announced the eight players who’ll be considered for induction by the Era Committee, formerly known as the Veteran’s Committee. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy and Rafael Palmeiro will each be under consideration. Any player who receives votes from 12 members of the 16-person panel will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, along with anyone selected by 75% of the voters on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot.
Bonds, Clemens and Schilling are the most notable and long-discussed of the group. All three fell off the writers’ ballot last winter after failing to reach 75% of the vote for a 10th consecutive year, thereby exhausting their eligibility. They’ll immediately garner renewed consideration, this time from the Era Committee after their progress on the writers’ ballot stalled — or in Schilling’s case, dropped after he attempted to remove himself from the ballot as his support dwindled following a number of controversial public statements — towards the end of their time under consideration.
Clemens and Bonds, of course, have slam-dunk Hall of Fame statistics but were left outside the Hall due to their ties to performance-enhancing drugs. Both were named as alleged steroid users in the 2007 Mitchell Report. Palmeiro’s HOF candidacy was also derailed by PED ties, in his case a 2005 suspension for a failed test that came a few months after he denied ever taking steroids during Congressional testimony the preceding spring. Palmeiro spent four seasons on the writers’ ballot but fell off in 2014 after receiving less than the 5% of the vote needed to remain under consideration.
Belle lasted two seasons on the writers’ ballot, falling below the 5% threshold in 2007. Mattingly, McGriff and Murphy all spent the maximum allotted time under consideration by the BBWAA but never crossed the necessary 75% threshold. Mattingly’s vote share peaked at 28.2% in his first year on the ballot. Murphy topped out at 23.2%, while McGriff’s vote share hit its apex at 39.8% during his final year in 2019.
The Era Committee’s purpose is to induct players who may have slipped through the cracks on the BBWAA ballot. It has historically cast a wider net for induction than has the Writers Association. This year’s crop of players are part of the “Contemporary Baseball Era,” which considers players whose primary contributions to the sport have come since 1980. Voting will be conducted on December 4.
Red Sox To Decline Option On James Paxton; Paxton Yet To Decide On Player Option
The Red Sox are declining their two-year, $26MM team option on left-hander James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The southpaw will now have to decide whether to trigger a $4MM player option to return to Boston or if he wishes to test the open market.
This was a no-brainer for the Red Sox, as the 6’4″ hurler missed the entire 2022 season. Paxton blew out his elbow during his first start of the 2021 season with the Mariners, requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him the rest of the year, but the Sox signed him to a complex $10MM guarantee last winter. The deal paid him $6MM for this past season and guaranteed him the option to lock in a $4MM salary for next year if Boston didn’t trigger a pair of $13MM club options covering the 2023-24 campaigns.
It was a high-risk, high-upside dice roll for the Red Sox that hasn’t panned out. Boston had hoped Paxton would be able to return late in the season and contribute to a possible playoff push, but he suffered a Grade 2 lat tear while rehabbing and didn’t wind up throwing a big league pitch. With all of 1 1/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, there was no chance the Red Sox would commit an additional $26MM on a bounceback.
Paxton’s now left with an interesting decision. He may be hard-pressed to find a $4MM base salary on the open market after two essentially lost seasons, but it’s possible he declines the option in search of an incentive-laden deal. Even if the 34-year-old doesn’t find an offer that quite matches the $4MM guarantee he’d be foregoing, he could seek out a deal that contains additional bonuses based on his number of innings pitched or starts in 2023 if he’s confident he’ll be healthy by Spring Training.
Anthony Rizzo Declines Player Option With Yankees
NOVEMBER 7: Rizzo has officially exercised his opt-out clause, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
NOVEMBER 4: Aaron Judge will understandably dominate most Yankee-centric headlines for the foreseeable future, but he’s not the only pinstriped slugger who’ll have the opportunity to field interest from other clubs this offseason. First baseman Anthony Rizzo‘s two-year, $32MM contract with the Yankees contained even salaries of $16MM per year and allows the longtime Cubs star to decline a 2023 player option and return to the open market if he chooses. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Rizzo is planning to do just that, which isn’t a huge surprise given the season that Rizzo put together in the Bronx.
Rizzo, 33, did post a low batting average but piled up walks and extra-base hits en route to a .224/.338/.480 batting line through 548 trips to the plate in 2022. He slugged 32 home runs, knocked 21 doubles and even chipped in a triple and six stolen bases. His 18.4% strikeout rate was his highest since 2014 but was still well shy of the 22.4% league average. Similarly, his 10.6% walk rate was a good bit higher than the league-average mark of 8.2%. All in all, wRC+ (which adjusts for his home park and league-wide offensive environment) pegged Rizzo’s bat at 32% better than an average hitter.
On the defensive side of the coin, Rizzo’s once-sterling defensive grades have taken a tumble, but not to the point where he ought to be considered a liability. He checked in with negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-2) but did so over the course of more than 1000 innings. Rizzo has battled back injuries the past couple seasons, which could help to explain some of the downturn with the glove. He received an epidural injection this summer and later began experiencing migraines, which cost him a couple weeks of action. Rizzo went 3-for-6 with a homer in his return contest following that IL stint.
Rizzo played in 11 fewer games in 2022 than in 2021, but at least with regard to his offensive performance, his 2022 season was better across the board. He had slightly more strikeouts but showed substantially more power (.256 ISO to .192), hitting more home runs in fewer plate appearances (32 vs. 22) and walking more often (10.6% vs. 9%). Overall, it was his best offensive showing since 2019. Though he will be another year older in 2023, the incoming ban on defensive shifts should benefit him. As a left-handed hitter without much speed, some of his grounders that were easy outs in 2022 could turn into singles going forward.
Given that this year’s production rather handily outpaced his 2021 output, there’s little reason to think Rizzo shouldn’t be able to expect at least the same type of two-year, $32MM pact he signed with the Yankees last offseason. The one scenario that might impact his earning power would be if he were to opt out and be saddled with a qualifying offer, but the $19.65MM value of this year’s QO represents a noticeable bump from the $16MM he’s scheduled to earn in 2023. Rizzo would be wise to decline the player option if only to push the Yankees to make that QO and put himself in a position to secure that raise. If they don’t make the QO, then another two- or even three-year deal could well be present for the slugger in free agency.
Bowden suggests that Rizzo would like to return to the Bronx on a longer deal. If that interest is reciprocated by the club, perhaps they could work something out even if the QO is involved. Such a scenario played out a few years ago when the White Sox gave a QO to Jose Abreu, who accepted it, but then they agreed to a three-year deal about a week later.
The Yankees have a good deal of uncertainty with their infield picture for next year, with not many players locked in. Josh Donaldson had a rough year at the plate and is about to turn 37, making it possible the Yanks look to move on from the last year of his contract. Gleyber Torres was decent at second but should see his contract rise to the $10MM range via arbitration. He’s still worth an investment like that but the club could also look to trade him and devote those resources to other parts of the roster. DJ LeMahieu should factor in here somewhere but he finished 2022 on the IL and will turn 35 next year. He’s probably best suited to a utility role as opposed to an everyday gig. Shortstop is a big mystery with Isiah Kiner-Falefa having a generally solid season with the glove but a few errors in the postseason cost him some playing time. There are youngsters available to take his job in Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera and Anthony Volpe but none of those guys have proven themselves locks to be MLB-capable just yet.
If Rizzo does indeed trigger his opt-out, it would create one more issue for the Yankees to deal with on the dirt. If they are able to give him a contract that entices him to stay, it would be one step towards stabilizing things. If the parties can’t find common ground, the alternatives available to the Yankees on the free agent market include Abreu, Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, among others.
Brad Ausmus Declines To Return As Athletics’ Bench Coach
Brad Ausmus has turned down an offer to return for a second season as the bench coach of the Athletics, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). According to Heyman, the former big league catcher is looking to find a front office position instead.
Ausmus only spent a year in Oakland. The A’s tabbed the 53-year-old as bench coach in January, giving first-year skipper Mark Kotsay an experienced hand. Ausmus has five years of big league managerial experience, four with the Tigers (2014-17) and a lone season as an Angel (2019). Kotsay will now have to look elsewhere for his top lieutenant heading into his second year as Oakland skipper.
It was a predictably rough season for the A’s, who tore the MLB roster down the preceding winter to cut payroll. Oakland finished an AL-worst 60-102, a record besting only that of the Nationals. It’s certainly not the way Kotsay would’ve hoped to start his managerial career, although he and the front office were aware heading into the season there’d be plenty of growing pains with a mostly unproven roster.
Ausmus, meanwhile, seems set to land in a baseball operations department somewhere over the coming months. He’s worked in the Padres’ and Angels’ front offices in the past, so a transition back to the executive ranks wouldn’t be unfamiliar.
Minasian: Angels Will Not Trade Shohei Ohtani This Offseason
Angels general manager Perry Minasian informed reporters this evening that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will open the 2023 season in Anaheim (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). The Angels are not giving any consideration to trading Ohtani, according to Minasian.
“Ohtani is not getting moved,” the GM told reporters. “He’s going to be here. He’ll be with us to start the season. I know there’s been rumors and all types of things, but he will be here. He’ll be part of the club. I said this before and I’ll say it again: We love the player. I think our goal is for him to be here for a long time.”
It’s a wholly unsurprising sentiment, as the Angels never seemed all that likely to move the 2021 AL MVP. Despite what would’ve surely been massive interest at this past summer’s trade deadline, Anaheim took Ohtani off the market almost immediately. Reports later indicated owner Arte Moreno directed his front office not to deal the two-time All-Star.
A few weeks later, Moreno announced he’s been exploring the possibility of selling the franchise. That process was reportedly already underway by the time the trade deadline rolled around, and the possibility of marketing an Ohtani-fronted roster to potential buyers figured to have played a role in the owner’s thinking. There hasn’t been much recent word on the sale process, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated last week that Moreno plans to go through with the sale.
The sale exploration could take most or all of the offseason, leaving the franchise in a state of uncertainty. The Halos are coming off a 73-89 season that marked their seventh straight below-average campaign. Anaheim dismissed Joe Maddon midseason and replaced him with Phil Nevin, but the managerial swap failed to reinvigorate a team that collapsed after a strong first month and a half. Minasian and his front office staff will set to work on trying to build around a core led by Ohtani and Mike Trout. The Halos have a promising rotation front four in Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, but they’re lacking in bullpen depth and don’t have much in the way of lineup certainty beyond Trout, Ohtani and, to a lesser extent, right fielder Taylor Ward.
How much money Moreno’s willing to allocate to build out a roster with which he’s ostensibly parting in the coming months is a question that looms over the offseason. The Angels opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the $188MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, the Halos have roughly $145.5MM in commitments on next year’s books. That includes salaries at or in excess of $30MM for each of Anthony Rendon, Trout and Ohtani.
The latter commitment was agreed upon last month, when the Angels and Ohtani agreed to a $30MM deal for his final season of club control. That set the record for the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in major league history, quickly foreclosing any possibility the parties would go to a hearing over his 2023 salary. There’s no indication they’ve recently discussed a longer-term deal, and Ohtani’s presently on track to be the top free agent in next winter’s class.
Minasian and company would surely love to keep the unique talent in Orange County for the long haul, but it remains to be seen if the 28-year-old is eager to engage in extension talks with the franchise’s present uncertainty. Fans of other teams will surely hold out hope the Angels change course in their resistance to dealing Ohtani, perhaps pointing to the other franchise currently up for sale as a hoped-for example. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo went on record in June to say the team would not trade Juan Soto, but they reconsidered and ultimately moved him at the deadline after Soto declined what proved to be their final long-term extension offer. That said, it’s generally rare to hear a baseball operations leader formally close the book on any potential roster maneuver, and it’d now register as great a surprise as ever if Ohtani is wearing anything other than an Angel uniform on Opening Day.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Seattle Mariners
Click here to read the transcript of our Mariners-only chat, in conjunction with our recent Offseason Outlook piece on Seattle’s winter plans.
Cardinals Select Moises Gomez
The Cardinals announced they’ve selected outfielder Moisés Gómez onto the 40-man roster, a move first reported by Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The decision prevents him from qualifying for minor league free agency in the coming days.
It’s the first stint on an MLB 40-man roster for Gómez. A Venezuela native, he first joined the professional ranks as an international signee of the Rays during the 2014-15 signing period. The right-handed hitter drew some prospect attention a few years later, with his power potential and decent corner outfield defense giving him a chance to be a part of the long-term Tampa Bay outfield. He appeared among Baseball America’s top 30 prospects in an always-deep Rays farm system every year from 2019-21, but he fell off the prospect radar with a dismal .171/.256/.309 showing in 76 Double-A games last year.
Tampa Bay declined to put Gómez on their 40-man roster after that season, and he qualified for minor league free agency as a player who’d spent seven years in the minors. The Cardinals gave him another shot, inking him to a non-roster deal and sending him to Double-A Springfield. Gómez had an incredible .321/.401/.705 showing, popping 23 home runs in 257 plate appearances in his second crack at the level. The Cards bumped him to Triple-A Memphis, where he added another 16 longballs with a .266/.340/.541 line in 244 trips to the dish. That didn’t get him onto the MLB roster during the season, but St. Louis will add him to the 40-man now to retain his long-term contractual rights.
It remains to be seen if Gómez will hold that roster spot all winter. He clearly has big power potential, with Guerrero noting his 39 cumulative homers led all minor league players this year. Questions about his hit tool lingered during his time in the Tampa Bay system, though, and those are still present in spite of his huge power showing. Gómez struck out in an immense 34.7% of his plate appearances this year, a rate not topped by any big league hitter with 500+ trips to the dish. Any further spike in whiffs against MLB arms would figure to leave Gómez on the roster bubble.
Whatever concerns the Cards front office may have about his swing-and-miss propensity, they clearly value Gómez enough not to let him walk at the start of the winter. His selection brings their 40-man roster tally to 37.