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Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, Walker, Pages, Lavigne, Kjerstad

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. Let’s dig in.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 22, OF, PHI (AA)
AFL: 44 PA, 10 SB, .297/.386/.378

Rojas is one of the prospects I’m most closely tracking this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter, though there’s little chance the Phillies would risk exposing him to the draft. With his elite defense and double-plus speed, at least 20 teams could easily hide him on their roster for a full season. His development could affect how the Phillies approach the free agent and trade markets in the coming winters as they transition away from their long-standing reputation as a poor fielding franchise.

The early results in Arizona are a mixed bag. He does have a solid triple-slash and three doubles, though he’s yet to muscle up for a home run. Only Zac Veen (13) has more stolen bases. Rojas and Veen are also the only players to feature a three-steal game. Rojas did it by nabbing each bag once. You can find a video of his thefts of third and home via Jacob Resnick of MLB.com (scroll down). It sure looked to me (Twitter link) that the pitcher was a tad insulted by the steal of home.

Encouragingly, Rojas has five walks (11.4% BB%) and six strikeouts (13.6% K%) in his 44 plate appearances. The two areas of his game that need the most work are in-game power and plate discipline.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 47 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .300/.362/.525

Although nobody should be upset with the above stat line, Walker ranks just 25th out of 62 qualified hitters by OPS. Nevertheless, he’s putting on an impressive display on both sides of the ball that has only served to highlight his physical readiness. Like Rojas, Walker’s development has major implications for the Cardinals mid-range plans. It’s long been rumored that Nolan Arenado will not opt out of his contract. Walker, however, is a talented defender who has been measured brushing triple-digit velocities on throws across the diamond. He also features Major League caliber exit velocities – he regularly exceeds 100-mph with his batted balls. All this from a 20-year-old who has all the makings of a franchise cornerstone. If Arenado does remain in St. Louis, they’ll have tough decisions to make soon – perhaps as early as next spring.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 43 PA, 3 HR, .278/.372/.556

A consistent power-hitting prospect, Pages is coming off a solid showing at Double-A. Barring a change in approach, he’s destined to be a low-average, high-ISO slugger. As a hitter, comparisons to vintage Rhys Hoskins are almost unavoidable (Hoskins adjusted his batted ball profile this season). Pages puts more than half of his batted balls in the air, has plus discipline, and features more than enough raw power to casually blast more than 30 home runs per full season. My home run calculator projects a range of 28 home runs (at a 15% HR/FB ratio) to 47 home runs (25% HR/FB ratio) per 600 plate appearances. Presently, he plays center field, though there are questions about his ability to stick there. Some scouts believe he’ll slow considerably as he ages.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
AFL: 42 PA, 1 SB, .389/.476/.611

Once considered an interesting prospect with upside, Lavigne has fallen off lists in recent years amidst unimpressive results. This season, he posted a 146 wRC+ as a slightly old High-A player before turning in a 102 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s a first-base-only prospect so his lack of power – 10 home runs in 524 plate appearances – could be a fatal blow to his prospectdom. However, he has excellent plate discipline and a batted-ball approach that could outperform expectations at Coors Field. When I squint, I see him as sort of similar to a more patient and whiff-prone version of Eric Hosmer. Although he’s yet to homer this fall, Lavigne leads the league with six doubles. Lavigne is Rule 5 eligible this winter and might be left exposed.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (AA)
AFL: 57 PA, 4 HR, .352/.386/.648

Kjerstad leads the league with 19 hits and is tied with Matt Mervis for the home run lead. He also has four doubles. The other hit leaders have taken a slappier approach, featuring minimal extra-base contact. As we profiled last week, Kjerstad lost most of two seasons due to COVID shutdowns and heart inflammation.

In less positive news, his 16 strikeouts are second-worst in the AFL, behind only Rece Hinds. Whiffs figure to remain an unavoidable part of Kjerstad’s game. So long as he’s achieving game power – as he is this fall – he remains a promising but volatile prospect.

Five More

Lawrence Butler, OAK (22): A slow-burn prospect who has hit at every level up through High-A, Butler has the fourth-best OPS in the AFL. A patient slugger who has always struggled with strikeouts, he tallied 10 walks and only seven strikeouts through 42 plate appearances. As a left-handed hitter, he has an easier path to relevance than other players with a similar toolset like Peyton Burdick. Butler should spend 2023 in Double-A. He’s being evaluated for a 40-man roster spot since he’s Rule 5 eligible.

Yasel Antuna, WSH (22): Antuna will turn 23 next Wednesday. A former top international prospect, his development has been slower and less impressive than originally hoped. His plate discipline is his standout trait, and it’s been on full display in Arizona where he has seven walks and one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. There are rumors his discipline is actually passivity. A dose of targeted aggression could unlock better power outcomes.

T.J. Rumfield, NYY (22): Acquired from the Phillies in exchange for Nick Nelson, Rumfield is an intriguing first base prospect who missed considerable development time – both in college and post-draft. When he’s been on the field, he’s demonstrated superb plate discipline. He puts on power displays in batting practice, though this has yet to translate in-game. He currently leads the AFL with a 1.236 OPS in 38 plate appearances.

Austin Martin, MIN (23): Martin is next-best with a 1.168 OPS in 48 plate appearances. It’s a BABIP-driven batting line – only three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. An important component of the Jose Berrios trade, Martin has intriguing discipline and contact skills. In his present form, he profiles as a most-days super utility guy. There’s risk higher-level pitchers will overpower him.

Edouard Julien, MIN (23): Another future Twins utility guy, Julien features pristine plate discipline that can verge into passivity at times. His pickiness results in an elevated strikeout rate despite above-average contact skills. He’s also never posted below a 19.3 percent walk rate. For comparison, among qualified Major Leaguers, only Juan Soto (20.3% BB%) exceeded a 16 percent walk rate this season. Julien isn’t on par with Soto, but he does have a well-rounded skill set and… surprise, surprise, he leads the AFL with 13 walks (30.9% BB%) and 10 strikeouts (23.8% K%) in 42 plate appearances.

Terry Francona Returning As Guardians Manager In 2023

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Longtime Guardians Manager Terry Francona will be returning to the team in 2023 on a new contract, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reports. Said contract has yet to be finalized, but Meisel says that Francona expects to take things “one year at a time.”

Francona just completed his tenth year as Cleveland’s manager, having gone 845-671 during his time with the organization. Cleveland has made the postseason six times under his management, with the highlight of those postseason runs coming in 2016, when Cleveland captured the AL pennant and made it all the way to game 7 of the World Series before ultimately falling to the Cubs. Prior to his time in Cleveland, Francona spent 8 years as manager of the Red Sox, collecting two World Series championships during his time there. He also spent four years as manager of the Phillies.

It should come as no surprise that the Guardians want to retain Francona, seeing as 2021’s 80-82 record is the only sub-.500 finish the organization has suffered under his management, a remarkable accomplishment for a small-market club. That being said, Francona has struggled with health concerns in recent years, with his latest procedure being one to remove drains from his back that he will undergo this offseason. Given this, it’s no wonder than Francona and the Guardians front office plan to assess his managerial status on a year-to-year basis.

Francona staying put in Cleveland takes another possible managerial seat off a market that has already seen the Rangers fill their vacancy with Bruce Bochy and each of the Angels, Blue Jays, and Phillies re-up with their interim managers. Managerial positions with the Marlins, Royals and the White Sox still remain up for grabs, however.

Going forward, the Guardians can be expected to try and build on their surprise success in 2022, where they captured the AL Central title with a 92-70 record and made it to the ALDS, where they fell to the Yankees in five games. Fortunately for Cleveland fans, the team was exceptionally young in 2022 and is unlikely to suffer major losses headed into 2023. With star third baseman Jose Ramirez having signed an extension earlier this year, only catcher Austin Hedges and reliever Bryan Shaw are expected to hit free agency this offseason.

Skip Schumaker Interviews For Marlins Managerial Vacancy

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Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker interviewed with the Miami Marlins to replace Don Mattingly, who mutually agreed to part ways with the club following the 2022 season, as manager. Morosi writes that Schumaker is among the favorites to land the position. Prior to joining the coaching staff in St. Louis, Schumaker also served as the Padres first base coach in 2018 and 2019 before being promoted to associate manager 2020. Schumaker played in the majors for 11 seasons before becoming a coach, splitting his playing career between the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Reds and slashing a career .278/.337/.364.

The Marlins appear to be looking for a rookie manager with some previous dugout experience to replace the veteran Mattingly, as they’ve reportedly interviewed Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, and Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol in addition to Schumaker. Espada and Quatraro have both reportedly received second interviews, and stand out as possible favorites for the job alongside Schumaker. While Espada and Grifol have both reportedly interviewed for other open positions, Schumaker’s interview with Miami is the only such interview that has been reported. The Athletic’s Katie Woo notes that Schumaker has a mutual option with the Cardinals for the 2023 season, and another for 2024.

While Schumaker doesn’t appear to be interviewing for other managerial openings this offseason, that’s not to say this is the first time a club has had interest in him for the manager’s seat. Schumaker has been fielding interviews for a managerial role since 2019, when the Mets interviewed him for their open manager position following that season. Schumaker also interviewed with the Red Sox after the 2020 season and the Cardinals following the 2021 season (before being hired as bench coach) for their managerial vacancies. While those vacancies all ultimately went to other candidates, there’s clear interest around the league in what Schumaker could bring to the table as a manager.

2022 was a tough season in Miami. While the young pitching the Marlins have become known for largely delivered, highlighted by Sandy Alcantara’s Cy Young caliber campaign, nearly the entire starting lineup under performed; only first baseman Garrett Cooper (113 OPS+) and outfielder Bryan De La Cruz (103 OPS+) posted an above average offensive season in 2022 among Marlins qualifiers. A full season from second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. in 2023 would surely help improve Miami’s struggling offense, but with both Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia having turned in concerning seasons to open their multi-year contracts with the organization, it will take further internal improvement for Miami to compete next season without significant offensive additions.

White Sox Expected To Interview Ozzie Guillen In Managerial Search

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NBC Sports Chicago’s Michael Allardyce reports that the White Sox plan to interview Ozzie Guillen next week in their search for a new manager following the retirement of Tony La Russa. Guillen has previously expressed interest in returning to the dugout as manager, and the White Sox have previously been reported to prefer an experienced manager to replace La Russa. The White Sox have been previously reported to have interest in Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol and Braves third base coach Ron Washington, among others, for their managerial vacancy.

Guillen was previously manager of the White Sox for eight seasons starting in 2004, highlighted by a 2005 season that saw Guillen’s White Sox win 99 games and capture the team’s first World Series championship since 1917. Following his tenure on the south side, Guillen managed the Marlins during the 2012 season. Overall, Guillen has a 678-617 record over his 9 seasons as a manager.

A reunion with Guillen, who the White Sox fired 160 games into the 2011 season, would be of particular note considering La Russa himself returned to the White Sox as manager following the 2020 season decades after he had suffered a midseason firing of his own. La Russa managed the White Sox to a 174-150 record across the 2021 and 2022 seasons, with the organization’s 81-81 record in 2022 registering as a particular disappointment for a club that has only just recently emerged from a rebuilding phase. Given the team’s struggles under La Russa, it would be a bold decision to bring in another former White Sox skipper to return to the manager’s seat rather than a new voice from outside the organization. On the other hand, Guillen’s experience not just as a manager, but as a manager who previously brought a World Series championship home to the south side, could make him uniquely qualified to do it again.

While the White Sox struggled this year, they have significant talent on the roster going into 2023, with stars such as Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez in the outfield and right-hander Dylan Cease having just completed a breakout season in 2022 that will likely see him earn serious consideration for the AL Cy Young award. Still, many key players, such as Lucas Giolito, Yasmani Grandal, and Yoan Moncada struggled this season, and the Sox will likely have to count on improvements across their roster to return to the postseason in 2023, regardless of who ends up managing them.

Royals Interview Matt Quatraro About Managerial Vacancy

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Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro is again a popular interview candidate for managerial jobs, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) reports that the Royals spoke with Quatraro earlier this week as K.C. looks for Mike Matheny’s replacement in the dugout.

Quatraro has previously interviewed with the Pirates, Giants, Tigers, Mets, Athletics about their managerial openings within the last three years, and he was reportedly a finalist for the jobs in Pittsburgh (before Derek Shelton was hired) and New York (prior to Buck Showalter’s hiring).  Quatraro is also pretty deep in the running for another job this offseason, as both he and Astros bench coach Joe Espada are being interviewed for a second time by the Marlins.

Just a few weeks away from his 49th birthday, a big league managerial post would be quite the early present for Quatraro, and the culmination of an 18-year coaching career.  After seven seasons as a player in the Rays farm system, Quatraro moved onto various roles as a hitting coach, hitting coordinator, and minor league manager for the Rays until he was hired by the Indians prior to the 2014 season.  Quatraro worked as Cleveland’s assistant hitting coach for four seasons, and this job could be a link to his chances with the Royals — as Rosenthal notes, Royals owner John Sherman was a minority owner in Cleveland during Quatraro’s tenure on the coaching staff.

Quatraro then made a return to Tampa Bay as a third base coach in 2018, and he has spent the last four seasons as Kevin Cash’s bench coach.  The Rays’ constant success on a minimal budget has led to several members of the coaching staff and front office being poached by other teams over the years, so Quatraro could be the latest name to join a lengthy list.

It’s a new era in Kansas City, as longtime front office head Dayton Moore was fired after 16 seasons with the team, and Matheny was let go after three seasons as manager.  Hiring Quatraro or another voice from outside the organization would help add some new perspective to the Royals’ operations, as new GM J.J. Picollo is a longtime member of the K.C. front office.  The only other known candidate for the Royals job is an internal candidate in bench coach Pedro Grifol, who was also interviewed by the Marlins and has also reportedly received interest from the White Sox.

Marlins Managerial Rumors: Espada, Quatraro, Weiss

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TODAY: Braves bench coach Walt Weiss turned down an interview request from the Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.  Weiss posted a 283-365 record as the Rockies’ manager from 2013-16, and he just completed his fourth season as Atlanta’s bench coach.  A 14-year Major League veteran best known for his time with the great Athletics teams of the late 80’s and early 90’s, Weiss spent a season with the Marlins in 1993, playing on the team’s inaugural roster.

OCTOBER 20: Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro have landed a second interview for the vacant Marlins managerial post, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. It was reported last week that Espada was interviewing for the position for the first time, but it’s the first reporting of the Marlins interest in Quatraro. Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol is the other known interviewee, although it’s unclear if he was asked back for a second time. Mish notes that a number of additional interviews have not been reported, so while there may well be a number of other candidates in play, the fact that Espada and Quatraro are interviewing a second time indicates they are starting to narrow down their search.

Both Espada and Quatraro have long been viewed as managers-in-waiting, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggests Quatraro could also be in the mix for the vacant Royals, White Sox and Rangers jobs. Espada, meanwhile, has already interviewed for the White Sox position.

It’s not the first season that Espada, 47, has drawn managerial interest. The Puerto Rico native has been a respected member of the Astros coaching staff since 2017, and has had interest from the Mets, Cubs, A’s, Twins and Giants in recent years.

Similarly, Quatraro, 48, is heading into yet another off-season where his name is heavily linked with managerial posts. The A’s, Giants and Pirates were linked with Quatraro in recent years, while it was reported he was a finalist for the Mets position last year before they opted for Buck Showalter.

Astros Expected To Ask Dusty Baker Back For 2023 Season

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Dusty Baker’s contract is up whenever the Astros conclude their playoff run, marking the second straight year that the veteran manager has entered the offseason with uncertainty about his future.  However, it looks like Baker might be staying put in Houston, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post hears from sources that “Baker will be invited back to manage in 2023.”

The Astros have reached the ALCS in all three years of Baker’s tenure as manager, and are two wins away from their second consecutive American League pennant.  While he is still looking for his first World Series title as as manager, Baker’s 230-154 regular-season record with Houston has only further enhanced his case for enshrinement in Cooperstown, as only eight managers in baseball history have more wins than Baker’s 2093 career victories.

Despite this resume and Baker’s most recent track record of success, the Astros have been somewhat strangely hesitant to make a true long-term commitment, perhaps owing to Baker’s age (he turned 73 in June) and the unusual circumstances that led to his hiring.  After A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow were fired in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, Baker was hired just a few weeks later to replace Hinch, with James Click then brought in from the Rays front office to replace Luhnow as Houston’s general manager.

Baker was given a one-year contract with a club option for 2021, and the Astros made the early call to exercise that club option in July 2020.  No further extension came, however, and Baker’s next contract wasn’t finalized until after the Astros were eliminated in last year’s World Series — even then, Baker’s new deal just covered the 2022 campaign.

For his own part, Baker hasn’t shown any public displeasure with this lack of security, and most recently said that “I ain’t worried.  Worrying does no good,” when asked about his contract situation.  Heyman writes that Baker “is reportedly open to returning” as Houston’s manager, as it would make sense that Baker would want to remain in a comfortable environment with a winning team.  Hypothetically, Baker could be a candidate for any of the open managerial positions (with the Marlins, Royals, Rangers, or White Sox) since he’ll be a free agent, though the Astros are in a better position to contend in 2023 than any of those other four clubs.

Click’s contract status is another additional wrinkle.  The GM will also be out of contract after the season, and there have been rumors that the Astros might be looking to make a change in the front office, despite Click’s success in the job.  It doesn’t appear as though Click’s situation will impact Baker, however, as Heyman notes that the two men don’t have a particularly close relationship, even though this obviously hasn’t led to any issues with the Astros’ on-field success.  Astros owner Jim Crane reiterated in a text message to Heyman that he “will make a decision after the season is over on both contracts.  That has not changed.”

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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After a deep rebuild that featured last-place finishes in each of the past four full seasons, the Orioles showed signs of optimism in 2022. Many of their prospects reached the majors and played well, allowing the club to flirt with postseason contention and finish above .500 for the first time since 2016. GM Mike Elias has teased that the coming offseason will involve a higher payroll, but just how aggressive will they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • John Means, LHP: $2.975MM through 2023 (arbitration-eligible for one year thereafter)

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Orioles have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball in recent years, with few people expecting anything different going into 2022. But many of the club’s young players either made strong debuts or took steps forward, leading the team to a respectable season for the first time in recent memory. They stayed in the Wild Card race until the final week of the season and actually finished with a winning record for the first time since 2016.

What that means going forward is an open question that will be answered in the months to come. General manager Mike Elias was hired after the 2018 season, meaning we have no template for what it looks like when he decides to be aggressive. The club hasn’t given a multi-year contract to a free agent since Alex Cobb’s four-year deal in March 2018, before Elias was hired.

Back in August, Elias said that the O’s will “significantly escalate the payroll,” though he could mean different things by that. The highest Opening Day payroll the Orioles have ever had was the $164MM of 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though it’s been steadily declining since then. This year’s mark was just under $44MM, the lowest in the league. It would be possible for the payroll to escalate “significantly” while still remaining low compared to the other 29 clubs. But if they want to be truly aggressive, there’s little standing in their way. They have no long-term commitments whatsoever, with Means the only player on the books for 2023 and literally no one guaranteed for 2024.

If they do decide to make a sizeable commitment to a free agent, it would make the most sense for it to be a pitcher since the position player core is in decent shape. Behind the plate, Adley Rutschman made good on his top prospect status with an excellent rookie season. In 113 games, he hit .254/.362/.445 for a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter. That would be impressive work for any batter, but it’s especially impressive for a catcher, and a rookie at that. He also got good grades from defensive metrics, allowing him to produce 5.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and cementing himself as the catcher of the future.

A Spring Training injury delayed his debut until May, meaning he’s currently short of one year of MLB service time. However, there’s a provision in the new collective bargaining agreement that gives a full year of service to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting. Rutschman will most likely finish second behind Julio Rodríguez, meaning he would have five years of club control remaining before hitting the six-year mark. That should keep Rutschman in Baltimore through at least 2027, though an extension could always lengthen the relationship and would be one way of spending aggressively.

With Rutschman entrenched for years to come, the O’s will only have to think about a backup and depth options. Robinson Chirinos got into 67 games in 2022 but is headed to free agency. In terms of in-house options, they added Anthony Bemboom to the 40-man roster just a few weeks ago to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Then there are waiver claims Cam Gallagher, Mark Kolozsvary and Aramis Garcia. If the O’s want to supplement that group, they’d be a candidate for a veteran signing, such as bringing back Chirinos or someone like Sandy León, though they could also ride with the many options they already have.

At first base, the club traded away Trey Mancini at the deadline, leaving the position in the hands of Ryan Mountcastle. His power took a step back this year, hitting just 22 home runs compared to 33 last year. Some of that is surely due to the club pushing back the left field wall, though Mountcastle was still above-average at the plate overall. His .250/.305/.423 batting line this year adds up to a wRC+ of 106, or 6% above league average. That’s fairly middle-of-the-pack production from the first base slot, meaning it’s a theoretical area they could look to upgrade. However, Mountcastle is still young, turning 26 in February, and has yet to reach arbitration eligibility. He’ll likely get some time to find another gear. Jesús Aguilar, who was with the club for September and October, is reaching free agency, meaning there’s room for a backup/bench bat. Re-signing Aguilar would make some sense, though guys like Colin Moran will also be available.

The rest of the infield has some fluidity to it, thanks to the versatility of Gunnar Henderson. The club’s other top prospect, he debuted later in the season and hit .259/.348/.440 for a wRC+ of 125 in 34 games. He primarily lined up at third base in that time, though also saw some action at shortstop and second base. Jorge Mateo was the club’s primary shortstop this year, hitting at a below-average rate but still proving to be plenty useful due to his speed and defense. His .221/.267/.379 batting line only amounted to an 82 wRC+, but he also stole 35 bases and was unanimously praised by advanced defensive metrics. With Rougned Odor reaching free agency, second base is up for grabs, though there are internal options. Ramón Urías hit .248/.305/.414 for a wRC+ of 104 while playing second, third and short. Terrin Vavra spent some time at the keystone but also in the outfield.

Many people have opined that the O’s should target one of the big four free agent shortstops this winter (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), given their lack of payroll commitments and ability to shuffle their current infielders around. While that level of aggressiveness would certainly be exciting, there are reasons to suspect they will dedicate their resources elsewhere. Joseph Ortiz, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday are all infielders and considered to be among the top 100 prospects in the game by FanGraphs, while Baseball America has Holliday and Jordan Westburg on their list. Holliday is just 18 and still years away from the majors, but Ortiz and Westburg both reached Triple-A in 2022, with Mayo getting as high as Double-A. The O’s might want a path available for these players to force their way into the big league picture throughout 2023.

The outfield also saw a prospect debut this year, as Kyle Stowers came up and hit .253/.306/.418 for a wRC+ of 107 in 34 games. He should slot next to Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as the club’s regular outfield mix. Anthony Santander will also be around, though he has the least defensive acumen of the group and could potentially see significant time as the designated hitter. Just like on the infield, there are future reinforcements coming on the grass. Colton Cowser is considered to be one of the top 100 prospects in the sport by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He got as high as Triple-A in 2022 and will likely make his MLB debut in 2023.

With lots of depth on the position player side of things, the O’s should have plenty of opportunities on the trade market. Perhaps they believe in Cowser enough to explore a trade of Hays, opening up the outfield picture a bit. With a bevy of infield prospects on the way, maybe they feel they can make a move there. Trading away someone at the big league level like Mateo or Urías is a possibility. But they could also trade away one of their many prospects for immediate help.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s less certainty. Seven different pitchers got into double digits in terms of games started, with a mixed bag of results. Austin Voth and Dean Kremer were the only two of the group to post ERAs under 4.00 while with Baltimore. In both cases, advanced metrics are skeptical of the results, with low BABIPs and high strand rates helping them to minimize the damage. Jordan Lyles, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins were each between 4.00 and 5.00 in the ERA department, with none of them getting strikeouts at an above-average rate. Bruce Zimmermann’s ERA came in at 5.99. Some of these guys are still young and getting their feet wet, which means they will continue to get chances going forward. But none of them were so strong in 2022 that they should be guaranteed a rotation spot at this point. There should be plenty of room for free agent additions here, even with top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of entering the picture. John Means should be a factor at some point in 2023, but it will depend on how he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April of this year.

The types of free agents that they target will depend on exactly how significant the payroll increase will actually be. The top of the market will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón. It would certainly be surprising to see the O’s shopping in that aisle, though there’s no real reason they couldn’t do it. If they aren’t willing to be quite that aggressive, they could look to Kodai Senga, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Mike Clevinger and Nathan Eovaldi as solid middle-of-the-rotation options. If they decide to stick with one-year deals, they will likely be looking at guys like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies and others of that ilk. It could go in many different ways, but the O’s have virtually no payroll commitments and plenty of room in the rotation. The big question will be how bold they want to be.

Turning to the bullpen, this was a strength for the O’s this season. The club’s relievers posted a collective 3.49 ERA this year, ninth-best among MLB teams, even though they traded Jorge López to the Twins at the deadline. Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez and Bryan Baker were some of the relievers to show promising results. However, reliever performance is notoriously volatile and the O’s don’t really have a veteran presence in the ’pen. Dillon Tate, who turns 29 in May and has just over three years of service time, is the old hand of the crew. It would be plenty sensible for the club to add a guy who’s been around for a bit, both for on-field performance and for mentoring capabilities. Players like Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Tommy Kahnle shouldn’t cost too much but would fit nicely, though there’s also nothing really stopping the O’s from splurging on Edwin Díaz or Kenley Jansen.

Ultimately, the O’s are a grand unknown until we see what Elias has in mind. Since taking over, he’s been extremely conservative with spending on the big league roster, avoiding all multi-year deals while focusing on acquiring and developing prospects. It seems like now is a good time to make a shift and start focusing on the major league level, but we don’t have a barometer for what that will look like. They still have many exciting prospects on the way, meaning they could continue with modest deals while waiting for the farm to continue producing, or they could use that prospect stockpile for a bold trade. But with a wide open future payroll and plenty of young talent, the O’s could be big players in free agency or the trade market or both, if they want to be.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held an Orioles-centric chat on 10-21-22. Click here to view a transcript of that discussion.

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