Latest On Market For Willson Contreras
Free agency commences in a few days, and Willson Contreras will be the unquestioned top backstop available. The career-long Cub is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer from Chicago while his representatives at Octagon set out in search of a strong multi-year pact.
While clubs can’t formally begin to discuss contract terms with other teams’ free agents until Thursday, they’ve no doubt identified players of interest with the offseason underway. A few teams outside of Chicago have already loosely emerged in the Contreras market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Tigers have interest in the three-time All-Star, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears the Astros are contemplating a free agent pursuit.
It’s easy to see the link in both cases. Detroit is led by first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who worked in the Cubs front office through the end of the 2019 season. Harris’ familiarity with Contreras doesn’t on its own give Detroit much of a leg up in free agency, but there’s a clear opportunity for them to pursue catching help. Detroit sees Tucker Barnhart hit free agency, and he looks unlikely to return after a rough year. Eric Haase has decent power and could be an immediate catching option after hitting .254/.305/.443 in 110 games, but he’s never rated highly defensively and may be a better fit for increased work in left field and/or at designated hitter.
Harris declined comment on Contreras specifically when speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening (via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). However, he broadly sounded open to the idea of adding catching help from outside the organization. Harris noted the presence of some internal prospect talent — presumably primarily in reference to former second-round pick Dillon Dingler and to 2021 11th-rounder Josh Crouch — but downplayed the likelihood of anyone from the system seizing that job for 2023. Neither Dingler nor Crouch needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter, and neither has yet reached Triple-A. Whether Detroit should be willing to surrender a draft choice for a qualified free agent on the heels of a 66-win season is fair to ask, but it seems likely the Tigers will address catcher in some form over the coming months.
The Astros’ interest in Contreras dates back at least to this past summer. The front office arranged a deal that would’ve sent José Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras at the deadline, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed it. Houston pivoted to land Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox instead, but he’s now the #2 backstop behind Contreras in free agency. A Vázquez reunion seems unlikely after he saw sporadic playing time behind Martín Maldonado down the stretch. Maldonado’s presence could be a roadblock to a Contreras pursuit as well, given the World Series champion’s longstanding affinity for the defensive specialist, but Contreras could be such a marked offensive upgrade the team is willing to consider scaling back Maldonado’s playing time to add an impact bat.
Certainly, interest in Contreras will extend far beyond two teams. High-ranking executives with the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Red Sox have already gone on record about an openness to adding behind the plate. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets the Cardinals consider catcher to be their #1 priority, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak open to both free agent and trade possibilities. The Cardinals have long prioritized elite defense behind the dish with Yadier Molina, perhaps making them an odd fit for a bat-first player like Contreras, but Woo relays that St. Louis isn’t solely looking for defensive stalwarts but is prioritizing all-around impact from the position.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, may have more trepidation about Contreras’ mixed reputation as a game-caller. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Boston is unlikely to make a serious run at the 30-year-old backstop as they place an emphasis on managing a pitching staff. Concerns about Contreras’ game-calling acumen were mentioned at the deadline as well, perhaps playing a role in the Cubs not finding an offer that inspired them to part ways with him despite being well out of playoff contention. Speier notes the Red Sox have had longstanding interest in A’s backstop Sean Murphy — who’ll be a frequent trade target again this winter — and reports they’ve previously checked in on the Padres’ Austin Nola.
Drew Smyly Declines Mutual Option With Cubs
Drew Smyly declined his end of a $10MM mutual option in his contract with the Cubs, as Jordan Bastian of MLB.com was among those to relay (on Twitter). He’ll collect a $1MM buyout and head back to free agency.
It’s virtually a formality that every mutual option will be declined by one side, and Smyly’s decision doesn’t register as much of a surprise. He’s likely to look for a multi-year deal this winter. The veteran southpaw is coming off a decent season for Chicago, pitching to a 3.47 ERA through 106 1/3 innings over 22 starts. His 20.4% strikeout rate was a hair below average, but he only walked 5.8% of opposing hitters and had a solid 12.4% swinging strike rate.
Smyly and the Cubs reportedly kicked around extension talks last month. Obviously, nothing has come to fruition, but Bastian notes the Cubs are still interested in keeping the 33-year-old around. They’ll retain exclusive negotiating rights through Thursday evening, but it looks likely the Frontline client will soon be in contact with other clubs with no extension in place.
Chicago doesn’t have a ton of certainty behind Marcus Stroman in their season-opening rotation. Kyle Hendricks figures to assume a spot if healthy; he’s yet to begin a throwing program after his 2022 season was cut short by a capsule tear in his throwing shoulder, although the Cubs aren’t concerned about his availability for Spring Training. Justin Steele looks like a rotation lock, but Chicago’s likely to seek upgrades over Adrian Sampson and Keegan Thompson at the back end. Even if they manage to retain Smyly, they figure to explore a deep starting pitching free agent class.
Mariners To Select Prelander Berroa
The Mariners are planning to select right-hander Prelander Berroa onto their 40-man roster, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The 22-year-old would otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, and Seattle will keep him away from other clubs by adding him to the 40-man.
Seattle acquired Berroa in May, adding him from the Giants in a deal that sent utilityman Donovan Walton to San Francisco. It was the second trade of Berroa’s young career, as he’d previously gone from the Twins to the Giants in a 2019 deadline deal. A native of the Dominican Republic, Berroa draws praise from evaluators for his fastball-slider combination but has some questions about his control.
That was mostly borne out in his 2022 numbers. Berroa split his time between High-A and Double-A, starting all 26 of his appearances. He posted a cumulative 2.86 ERA through 100 2/3 innings, striking out an incredible 36.5% of batters faced. He also walked an elevated 12.6% of opponents, highlighting that his strike-throwing remains a work in progress. Nevertheless, the M’s feel there’s a chance another club would’ve plugged Berroa directly onto the MLB roster next year given the quality of his stuff.
Diamondbacks Claim Cole Sulser From Marlins
The Diamondbacks announced they’ve claimed reliever Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins. Arizona’s 40-man roster tally jumps to 37, while Miami’s drops to 40.
Sulser spent one season in South Florida. The Fish acquired the right-hander alongside hard-throwing Tanner Scott in a package deal with the Orioles going into the 2022 season. Sulser was coming off an excellent 2.70 ERA over 63 1/3 innings in Baltimore, looking like a late-blooming high-leverage bullpen piece. He didn’t replicate that success during his year in Miami, however, scuffling to a 5.29 ERA over 34 frames.
The 32-year-old surrendered six home runs over that stretch, and his strikeout rate dipped from 28.4% with Baltimore to 25.5% this past season. Sulser’s average fastball speed also dropped from 93.3 MPH to 91.9 MPH, and he lost a couple months midseason with a lat strain.
That down year explains why the Marlins were willing to part with Sulser not long after acquiring him, but it’s easy enough to see the appeal for the Diamondbacks in giving him a shot. Even with his diminished velocity, he got swinging strikes on an above-average 13.3% of his pitches this year. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen has spoken about prioritizing swing-and-miss in adding to a bullpen that ranked last in the big leagues with a 19.7% strikeout rate.
Sulser has between three and four years of major league service, so he’ll be eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a modest $1MM salary if tendered a contract, and he could be a multi-year bullpen piece for the Snakes if he can right the ship.
Orioles Outright Cam Gallagher
The Orioles announced that catcher Cam Gallagher has gone unclaimed on outright waivers. He’s elected minor league free agency in lieu of an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk, as is his right as a player with more than three years of big league service. Baltimore also confirmed that backstop Anthony Bemboom has cleared waivers but accepted an assignment to Norfolk. The O’s hadn’t previously announced Gallagher had been taken off the 40-man roster, which now sits at 33.
Baltimore claimed Gallagher off waivers from the Padres during the final month of the regular season. He barely played for the organization, making just five appearances with Norfolk. Gallagher had also not suited up in the majors for the Friars, spending his two-month tenure there in Triple-A after San Diego added him from the Royals at the trade deadline. Gallagher had a tough year in Triple-A, mustering a .200/.277/.343 line in 119 plate appearances between the three teams.
Before this August, Gallagher had spent his entire career in Kansas City. He’s been the backup to Salvador Perez for the past few years, appearing in parts of six big league seasons but never tallying more than 48 games in an individual season. He has a cumulative .240/.302/.355 line over 469 career plate appearances at the big league level.
The 29-year-old (30 in December) had been eligible for arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Gallagher for just a $1MM salary, but the O’s evidently determined they weren’t prepared to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter. He now heads to the open market for the first time, where he’ll add a depth option for teams seeking catching help.
Dodgers To Decline Danny Duffy’s Club Option
The Dodgers are declining their $7MM club option on left-hander Danny Duffy, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com (Twitter link). There’s no buyout, and the veteran hurler heads back to the open market.
There wasn’t much suspense with this decision, as Duffy hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in a year and a half. The longtime Royal was off to a strong start to the 2021 campaign, pitching to a 2.51 ERA through 61 innings. He suffered a flexor strain and was on the injured list as the trade deadline rolled around, but L.A. nevertheless acquired him from the Royals. He suffered a setback and didn’t pitch that year, and he underwent surgery over the offseason.
The Dodgers signed Duffy to a $3MM guarantee over the winter, hoping he’d contribute as a reliever for the stretch run and into the postseason. Unfortunately, he suffered another setback while attempting to rehab in the late summer and didn’t get back to the majors. Duffy’s year and a half in the organization didn’t result in him taking the mound in Dodger blue.
Duffy has a career 3.95 ERA, but he may have to conduct a showcase for teams this winter to demonstrate his health. He turns 34 years old in December.
Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger
The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.
Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.
He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.
That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.
The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.
It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.
He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.
Blue Jays Expected To Trade From Catching Surplus
The Blue Jays have an enviable crop of talented catchers and are expected to use one of them in a trade this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
It’s been speculated for quite some time that the Blue Jays will have to move on from a catcher eventually, given their various options. Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno are all MLB-caliber backstops with varying degrees of experience. Since most teams are lucky to even have one good catcher, let alone three, it’s fairly logical to think they might consider dealing one of them to address another part of the roster. Last offseason, Toronto’s catching mix came up often in offseason chatter and it has only gotten more crowded since then.
Despite the numbers of options available, there were good reasons they didn’t pull the trigger on a deal a year ago. At the end of 2021, Gabriel Moreno was considered one of the top prospects in baseball but only had three Triple-A games on his résumé. Alejandro Kirk had an exciting debut in 2020 but was limited by injury to just 60 games in 2021. Danny Jansen, the longest-tenured of the bunch, also missed significant time in 2021, only getting into 70 contests. Given there was some uncertainty with each of their three choices, it made sense to take a wait-and-see approach.
Here in 2022, Moreno added 62 more Triple-A games, hitting .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. He also got into 25 big league contests and produced a .319/.356/.377 line with a 113 wRC+ while looking strong on defense, including throwing out 7 of 17 attempted base stealers. Kirk stayed off the IL and got into 139 games. In that time, he hit .285/.372/.415 for a wRC+ of 129 while also posting 9 Defensive Runs Saved and a 7.6 from the FanGraphs framing metric. Jansen still dealt with injuries and only got into 72 games, though he hit a tremendous 15 home runs in that time and slashed .260/.339/.516 for a wRC+ of 140. His defensive marks were also generally strong, allowing him to post 2.6 fWAR despite playing less than half of the team’s games.
If the Jays felt they had enough catching to consider a trade a year ago, the circumstances have only pushed them further towards that conclusion since then. The only question will be which of the group to move on from. Jansen got a cup of coffee in 2018 but established himself as a regular in 2019 by getting into 107 games. His bat was below average but he provided 12 DRS and earned an 8.1 from the FanGraphs framing metric. His bat has continued evolving in the following seasons, though that has come with durability concerns. Due to the pandemic-shortened season in 2020 and two straight years of injury disruptions, he hasn’t played more than 72 games in a single season since 2019. He also only has two remaining years of club control and is projected for a $3.7MM arbitration salary in 2023 by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Kirk and Moreno are each still in their pre-arb years, with the Jays still having four years of club control over Kirk and six over Moreno. That extra cheap control surely makes them more appealing to the Jays in the long term but it would also lead to greater returns in any trade talks. Various teams will likely be considering upgrades behind the plate this winter, including the Astros, Cardinals, Tigers, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Twins, Guardians, Pirates, Red Sox and Rays. Some of those teams will look to free agency, with Willson Contreras the top of the market. However, he will surely require a significant contract as well as draft pick forfeiture, since he will undoubtedly receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Cubs. There will be other options available, such as Christian Vázquez, Gary Sánchez, Tucker Barnhart and more, though those players are all older than the trio on Toronto’s roster and will likely earn higher salaries on the open market.
Regardless of how the Jays ultimately decide to play it, this catching surplus might be their best path towards improving the club this offseason. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk as part of the Offseason Outlook series, the Jays are already slated for a franchise-record payroll, even before making any moves. A few non-tenders could drop that number a bit and ownership could greenlight some extra spending, but it’s possible that the Jays aren’t positioned for huge free agent strikes this winter. If that is indeed the case, a trade centered around one of their backstops could be the ticket to improving the roster for 2023.
Starting pitching will likely be an area of focus for the club, with Ross Stripling departing via free agency and Hyun Jin Ryu set to miss at least part of the season due to Tommy John surgery. They will still have a strong front two in Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman but then a group of guys coming off down years in José Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White. Finding starting pitchers that are both cheap and good is generally quite difficult to do, but the Jays look to be in good position to turn to the trade market instead.
Dodgers Decline Club Option On Jimmy Nelson
The Dodgers announced that they have declined their 2023 club option on right-hander Jimmy Nelson. They could have retained him at a $1.1MM salary but will instead let him return to the open market. There was no buyout attached to the option.
Nelson spent many years as a starter with the Brewers before being derailed by injuries. He missed the 2018 and 2020 seasons entirely and only threw 22 innings in 2019, putting up a 6.95 ERA in that brief window when he was healthy.
However, he seemed to get things back on track with the Dodgers in 2021. He made 28 appearances that season, throwing 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA. He walked 11.9% of batters faced but struck out 37.9% of them, well above that year’s 24% average for relievers. Unfortunately, that strong bounceback season was cut short when Nelson required Tommy John and flexor repair surgery in August.
Despite the surgery, the Dodgers re-signed him for the 2022 campaign, knowing he was unlikely to contribute that season. He received a league-minimum $700K salary while rehabbing, with the Dodgers able to trigger the $1.1MM option for 2023. The league minimum salary is jumping to $720K next year, meaning that $1.1MM figure is only $380K above. For a team that’s typically among the biggest spenders in the league, that would be a small risk to take on a pitcher who was so dominant when last healthy. However, the club has opted not to take that chance.
There’s no financial risk here for the Dodgers, since there is no buyout on the option. Their only risk is losing Nelson to a rival team now that he has the ability to pursue offers from all 29 other clubs. Though it’s also possible that he and the club could reconnect on another deal.
Rangers Decline Club Option On Kole Calhoun
The Rangers announced they have declined their $5.5MM club option on outfielder Kole Calhoun for 2023. There was no buyout attached. Calhoun will now become a free agent.
Calhoun signed with Texas last offseason, inking a $5.2MM guarantee after a down season in Arizona. The veteran outfielder had hit 16 home runs for the Snakes during the shortened 2020 season, but he was limited to five longballs and 51 games by injury in 2021. The Rangers took a shot on a bounceback, hoping to install a quality left-handed power bat into the corner outfield mix.
The 35-year-old’s lone season in Arlington didn’t go as planned. Calhoun appeared in 125 games and stepped to the plate 424 times, but he managed a career-worst .196/.257/.330 line. He punched out in a personal-high 32.1% of his trips to the plate against a modest 6.4% walk rate, and his power output wasn’t close to compensating for the subpar on-base percentage. Declining the option was an easy call for general manager Chris Young and his staff.
Calhoun heads back to the open market as a depth option in the corner outfield, and it’s possible he may have to take a minor league offer with an invitation to Spring Training. The Rangers figure to explore the market for upgrades on the grass, with Adolis García the only player who seems locked into a spot in the outfield at the moment.