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Spencer Turnbull Not Expected To Return In 2022

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Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull, who has spent the entire season on the injured list while rehabbing from last summer’s Tommy John surgery, is unlikely to make it back to a big league mound this season, manager AJ Hinch told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Turnbull hasn’t experienced any setbacks, but the team would need an “aggressive” timeline to get him back on the mound for a couple late-September starts. Given the Tigers’ place in the standings, it’s not much of a surprise that they’ll opt for a more deliberate and cautious approach to getting Turnbull back up to full strength.

Turnbull, 30 in September, has started 53 games for Detroit dating back to the 2018 season and has seen his results improve each year of his career. The 2021 campaign looked to be a legitimate breakout for the late-blooming, former No. 63 overall pick, as he tossed 50 frames of 2.88 ERA ball with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and hefty 57.2% ground-ball rate. Turnbull, always stingy in terms of allowing home runs, faced 201 hitters and yielded just two long balls in 2021.

The peak for Turnbull undoubtedly came on May 18, when he punched out nine Mariners and allowed just two walks en route to the eighth no-hitter in franchise history — the Tigers’ first no-no since Justin Verlander’s one decade prior (nearly to the day). That historic effort required a career-high 117 pitches, but the righty showed little in the way of immediate fatigue or decline. He received an extra day’s rest, completed six quality innings in his next appearance, and bounced back from that with another sharp 100-pitch performance. Turnbull’s next start lasted just four innings before he departed with forearm discomfort, however, and while the Tigers were initially optimistic that a worst-case scenario had been avoided, he ultimately required Tommy John surgery in late July.

Though the Tigers knew Turnbull was something of a long shot to log meaningful innings this season, they still signed him to a modest two-year deal just prior to Opening Day. He’d been arbitration-eligible, and rather than head to a hearing over his 2021 salary, the team put forth a two-year, $3.65MM offer that’ll now pay Turnbull $1.5MM to rehab this season and a $2.15MM salary in 2023, when he’ll hopefully return at full strength. He’s still under club control through the 2024 season, so assuming all goes well with his rehab, Turnbull can give the Tigers two seasons  of starts.

Yankees Acquire Andrew Benintendi From Royals

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The Yankees and Royals have made the biggest move of deadline season to date. New York announced an agreement to acquire outfielder Andrew Benintendi from Kansas City in exchange for pitching prospects Beck Way, T.J. Sikkema and Chandler Champlain.

Benintendi has been one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates for the past few months. The Royals entered 2022 with designs on competing, but they stumbled to a 16-32 record through the end of May. That made Kansas City an obvious deadline seller, and an impending free agent like Benintendi likely to change uniforms.

New York adds a contact-oriented bat to their outfield mix. Benintendi owns a .321/.389/.399 line on the year, walking at a strong 10.1% clip while only punching out in 13.5% of his trips to the plate. He’s only connected on three home runs, but Benintendi leads the majors with 91 singles and has picked up 14 doubles. He hasn’t looked like the 15-20 homer bat he was during his early seasons with the Red Sox, but he’s made contact on a strong 82.6% of his swings.

Benintendi’s production has been propped up by a career-high .368 batting average on balls in play. As a line drive hitter who uses the entire field, he typically generates solid results on batted balls, although it’s unlikely the Yankees are anticipating his 2022 mark remaining quite so high. Even if his BABIP regresses closer to his .325 career figure, his plate discipline and bat control should support a solid on-base percentage.

Those plus bat-to-ball skills contrast Benintendi sharply with the player whom he’s likely to displace from the lineup, Joey Gallo. New York’s biggest deadline pickup last summer, Gallo has struggled mightily since landing in the Bronx. He’s a .160/.293/.371 hitter in 498 plate appearances as a Yankee, striking out at a massive 38.4% clip over that stretch. Among hitters with 200+ plate appearances this season, Gallo has the third-highest strikeout rate (38.1%) and third-lowest rate of contact on swings (62.2%).

The Yankees are now set to roll out an outfield of Benintendi, MVP candidate Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks — owner of a massive .333/.471/.593 line this month after a slow start to the season — on most days. Giancarlo Stanton is the primary designated hitter, although he landed on the injured list yesterday. New York has already begun to cut back Gallo’s playing time while working the scorching hot Matt Carpenter into the corner outfield mix, and tonight’s acquisition is the firmest signal yet the Yankees are prepared to squeeze Gallo out entirely. It stands to reason they’ll try to find a taker for him in trade before next Tuesday’s deadline.

Judge has adequately handled a move from right to center field this year, leaving Hicks and Benintendi to play the corners. The latter has played exclusively left field since landing in Kansas City’s spacious home ballpark, rating well in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast’s Outs Above Average has pegged him as exactly a scratch defender in each of the past two years. He should add an adequate to above-average glove in the outfield while offering a notable improvement over Gallo’s recent work at the plate. It’ll be a boost to a lineup that already led the majors with 523 runs scored.

That the Yankees pulled the trigger on a Benintendi deal is sure to raise a few eyebrows for an off-field reason. He was placed on the restricted list before the Royals recent series in Toronto, indicating he’d not been vaccinated against COVID-19 at the time. That renders him unavailable for series in Toronto barring a change in his vaccination status or the removal of the ongoing prohibition of unvaccinated athletes crossing the border. Reports shortly thereafter emerged the Yankees could be dissuaded from pursuing him due to concerns about his availability.

That obviously proved not to be the case in the end. Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY each suggest (Twitter links) that some close to Benintendi believe he’s now willing to be vaccinated. Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of the Athletic indicate that vaccination status didn’t come up in talks between the Yankees and Royals front offices (Twitter link). Whether that’s because the Yankees anticipate he’ll eventually be eligible to play in Toronto or whether they’ve just decided to accept his possible absence for a few games isn’t clear.

The Yankees, who ironically open a four-game series against the Royals tomorrow, only have three regular season games remaining in Toronto. With an 11 1/2 game cushion over the Jays in the AL East, a three-game absence — if it comes to that — seem unlikely to have much of an effect on the regular season standings, although it could be relevant in the event the Yankees and Jays meet in the playoffs.

Benintendi is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary, around $3.3MM of which will be paid out through the remainder of the season. The teams didn’t make any mention of cash considerations, so it seems the Yankees will assume the remainder of that tab. New York’s luxury tax payroll now sits just under $265MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. They’re paying a 20% tax on their first $20MM over the $230MM base threshold, with a 32% fee on every dollar spent between $250MM and $270MM. If they exceed $270MM via future trades, they’d owe a 62.5% tax on any money up to $290MM (with higher fees thereafter). It’s a franchise-record level of spending for the Yankees, who seem likely to explore both rotation and bullpen upgrades over the next few days.

Turning to the Royals return, they’ll bring in a trio of lower minors arms. Way, Sikkema and Champlain were each ranked among the Yankees top 30 prospects at Baseball America, with Way topping the group at #13 in the system. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN concurs that Way is the headliner of the return, tweeting that he looks like a possible mid-rotation starter.

A fourth-round pick in 2020, Way has spent this season at High-A Hudson Valley. He’s worked 72 1/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball, striking out an above-average 27.6% of opposing hitters. The 22-year-old righty (23 next month) has posted strong ground-ball numbers throughout his early pro career, and he’s walking a career-low 9% of batters faced. Way’s control has previously been spotty, but BA credits him with a mid-90’s fastball and a promising sweeping slider.

Sikkema was the 38th overall pick in the 2019 draft. The canceled minor league season in 2020 wiped out his first full professional season, and he missed all of last year on the injured list. That confluence of factors means he’s made just 15 appearances as a professional, but he owns a 2.48 ERA with a huge 38% strikeout percentage and a strong 6.3% walk rate through 36 1/3 innings in High-A this year. BA praises his strike-throwing ability and suggests his lower arm slot adds some deception to his delivery. He’ll have to be added to the Royals 40-man roster at the end of the season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

Champlain was a ninth-round draftee out of USC last season. The 23-year-old has spent the entire year with Low-A Tampa, posting a 4.30 ERA with a 30.5% strikeout rate against a 6.2% walk percentage in 16 outings against generally younger competition. Baseball America credits him with a mid-90s fastball and a promising slider.

The Benintendi deal will be the first of plenty of dominoes to fall over the next few days. Rosenthal and Stark report that the Blue Jays, Brewers and Dodgers were among the teams that had some interest in Benintendi, and it stands to reason the remainder of that group could look for other ways to add to their outfield. Ben Gamel, David Peralta and Tyler Naquin are among the other lefty-hitting rental outfielders who should be available, although none seems likely to draw as much interest as Benintendi.

Jack Curry of the YES Network was first to report the Yankees were acquiring Benintendi. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals were receiving three minor leaguers, whom Joel Sherman of the New York Post initially specified were Way, Sikkema and Champlain.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Juan Soto

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Juan Soto has been the talk of deadline season since reports emerged that the Nationals were entertaining dealing him in the wake of a rejected extension offer. The young superstar will continue to dominate headlines up until he’s either traded or next Tuesday’s deadline passes, with plenty of teams relishing the chance to acquire a 23-year-old who is already perhaps the game’s best hitter.

There’s been plenty of speculation about which teams could be involved, and Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote yesterday that some rival executives believe the Cardinals and Padres are the clubs with the best chance of prying Soto out of Washington. That’s more informed speculation than an indication anything is close between the Nats and either club. Both the Padres and Cardinals have win-now mentalities and a group of high-upside controllable players both at and below the major league level. That’s also true of clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mariners, among others, and Soto’s two and a half years of remaining arbitration eligibility means the Nats don’t have to take the best offer on the table over the next few days.

Both Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat write that the Cardinals have considered making a push for Soto. Jones reports that talks between the St. Louis and Washington front offices have already been underway, with rookie second baseman Nolan Gorman on the table.

According to Jones, the St. Louis front office has proposed building a return package around Gorman in hopes of keeping at least one of minor league infielders Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn. Walker is perhaps the organization’s top young player, checking in 7th overall on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects update. Winn, meanwhile, places 65th on that list. They’re two of the top three St. Louis prospects, with left-hander Matthew Liberatore — who has made his first seven MLB appearances this year — checking in 35th. (Triple-A outfielder Alec Burleson and Double-A pitcher Gordon Graceffo also placed towards the back of the top 100).

Gorman, of course, would still be a top prospect himself if he hadn’t exhausted his eligibility this season. The 22-year-old entered the year as a consensus top minor league talent in his own right. Keith Law of the Athletic placed him slightly ahead of Walker as St. Louis’ top prospect entering the season. Baseball America and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN each gave the edge to Walker but slotted Gorman second in the system and among the sport’s top 50 farmhands. Gorman proceeded to tear the cover off the ball with Triple-A Memphis, blasting 15 home runs in 34 games before getting his first big league call in May.

Through 54 major league games entering play Wednesday, the left-handed hitting Gorman has a .223/.299/.411 showing. The high-power, low-OBP combination is about what was anticipated. Gorman’s huge power numbers in Memphis came with a lofty 34% strikeout rate, and he’s gone down on strikes 32.5% of the time thus far as a big leaguer.

One shouldn’t expect Gorman to be a finished product at this point. He just turned 22 years old a few months ago. “Merely” hitting at a slightly above-average level in the majors at that age is quite promising. Gorman has predictably not rated highly as a defender at second base, but the 6’1″ infielder was forced to the keystone by the presence of Nolan Arenado. Gorman could probably fare better with an opportunity at his natural position at the hot corner, although his power upside at the dish will always be his calling card.

Promising as Gorman has been, it’s also understandable if the Cardinals would prefer to center a possible Soto return around him rather than Walker. The latter, a first-round pick in 2020, has played his way to Double-A Springfield despite having just turned 20 years old. Walker is excelling at that advanced level, hitting .304/.393/.486 with eight home runs, a quality 11.5% walk rate and a manageable 22.3% strikeout percentage. Those excellent numbers only reinforce scouting evaluations that suggest Walker could be a middle-of-the-order bat in the not too distant future. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs credited Walker with possible top-of-the-scale power (an 80 on the 20-80 scale) this month, writing that he’s posted eye-popping exit velocities in the minors despite his youth. Like Gorman, Walker has come up as a third baseman.

Winn, also 20, went in the second round of that 2020 draft. A two-way player in high school, he’s converted to shortstop as a professional. He retains the elite arm strength he showed on the mound, and Longenhagen praised his combination of bat speed, athleticism and contact skills. He’s split the season between High-A Peoria and Springfield, hitting .298/.363/.484 across 357 plate appearances.

Whether a Gorman-centered return could get the ball rolling in talks for the Nationals isn’t clear. Washington holds plenty of leverage in Soto talks, and the early reported asking price has been for a return of five or more controllable big leaguers and/or prospects. Even if the Nationals had interest in Gorman as a headliner, St. Louis would surely have to additionally include multiple young players (one or more likely from the aforementioned group of top 100 talents in the system) to convince Washington general manager Mike Rizzo to pull the trigger.

Jones writes that, at some point in negotiations with the Cardinals, the Nats sought to include left-hander Patrick Corbin in talks as a means of offsetting salary. Corbin is under contract for roughly $60MM over the 2023-24 seasons, an unappealing sum for a pitcher with a 6.02 ERA through 20 starts on the year. Rizzo flatly rejected the idea the Nationals have sought or would seek to include Corbin’s contract in a Soto deal during a chat on 106.7 FM radio in Washington this morning.

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” Rizzo told “The Sports Junkies.” “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.“

Rockies Agree To Terms With Top Three Draft Choices

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The Rockies are in agreement with first-round pick Gabriel Hughes, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). He receives a $4MM signing bonus that’s well below the $4.98MM slot value that accompanies the #10 overall pick.

The underslot terms somewhat reflect Hughes’ pre-draft reputation as more of a mid-late first-round talent. He checked in between 22nd and 33rd on prospect lists at Baseball America, The Athletic, FanGraphs, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Evaluators praise his low-mid 90s fastball and above-average or better slider while suggesting his seldom-used changeup has nevertheless shown some potential in limited usage. The 6’4″ hurler is also credited with capable control and an old-school workhorse build that could make him a quick-moving rotation piece.

One of the younger college pitchers in the class, Hughes won’t turn 21 until next month. He nevertheless had no problem excelling during his final season at Gonzaga University, working to a 3.21 ERA with a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk percentage through 98 innings.

Colorado has also come to terms with their two supplemental first-rounders, per reports from Callis (Twitter links). Sterlin Thompson receives a $2.4305MM bonus that matches the slot value associated with the #31 pick. A left-handed hitter out of the University of Florida, Thompson broke out with a .354/.443/.563 showing over 305 plate appearances during his final season in Gainesville. Baseball America placed the 6’4″ Thompson as the #29 prospect in the class, writing that he’s likely to move to the corner outfield full-time as a pro. Both BA and Callis credit him with an advanced feel for the strike zone and the chance to grow into a bit of power as he fills out his frame.

Meanwhile, Jordan Beck will take home a $2.2MM bonus that comes in a bit above the $2.1MM slot value tied to the #38 pick. A right-handed power bat from the University of Tennessee, Beck checked in at #36 on BA’s pre-draft rankings. He hit .298/.391/.595 with 18 homers during his junior season in Knoxville, although he also struck out at an elevated 20.9% clip. That leads to some hit tool questions, but Beck has a strong power and athleticism combination.

Shane Greene Elects Free Agency

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The Yankees announced this evening that veteran reliever Shane Greene has passed through waivers unclaimed. He’s elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, as is the right of any player with three-plus years of major league service.

The right-hander made just one major league appearance with the Yankees during his latest stint. He was selected onto the roster last Saturday and tossed an inning out of the bullpen, allowing a two-run home run to Ramón Urías. The 33-year-old righty was designated for assignment the next day, and he’ll now head back to the open market.

Greene, who also made a lone appearance with the Dodgers earlier this season, has spent the past couple months in Scranton. He tossed 21 innings over 15 outings for the RailRiders, working to a 3.86 ERA with a slightly above-average 25.3% strikeout rate. Of course, it’s possible Greene circles back and returns to the Yankees on another minor league pact even after refusing an outright assignment. Electing free agency is a fairly common practice for outrighted veterans of his ilk, as he’ll have an opportunity to scour the market for a more immediate path back to the majors elsewhere.

Latest On Trade Markets For Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas

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Reds righty Luis Castillo and A’s righty Frankie Montas are not and never have been teammates, but their trade markets have been near inextricably linked dating back to the offseason. That’s understandable, given the similarities between them. The 29-year-olds are separated by just three months in age, by about $2MM in salary and are both controlled through the end of the 2023 season. Statistically, they’re nearly identical — although Castillo has handled the larger workload in recent years. Both pitch for clubs that were more focused on cutting payroll and stashing prospects than on putting together a 2022 winner. As such, both are obvious trade candidates (and have been since the winter).

The Cardinals, Mariners and Yankees have been the three most aggressive teams on the Montas/Castillo front, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, with the Twins, Blue Jays and Padres each also in the fold to varying extents. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also hears the Yankees are involved on both hurlers and calls adding a starter “a priority” for New York.

Bolstering the rotation is similarly going to be a key objective for St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz to injury in recent weeks. Flaherty is already on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least late August due to a shoulder strain. Matz tore the MCL in his left knee over the weekend. John Denton of MLB.com wrote a few days ago that Matz was optimistic about avoiding season-ending surgery, but he’s expected to be sidelined into September even if he can rehab without going under the knife.

The Cardinals also faced a rotation shortage at last summer’s deadline. They addressed that rather modestly, acquiring veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ as strike-throwing stabilizers at the back of the rotation. Robert Murray of FanSided reported last night the front office was looking for a higher-impact hurler than a Lester/Happ type this year, and a pursuit of Castillo and/or Montas certainly aligns with that assessment. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, meanwhile, writes that the Cardinals have explored the market for both impending free agents and starters with multiple remaining seasons of club control.

New York, meanwhile, recently lost Luis Severino to the injured list on account of a lat strain. New York welcomed back Domingo Germán to take his rotation spot, but there’s not a ton of proven healthy depth beyond their top five. The Yankees have also seen righty Jameson Taillon scuffle of late, leaving them scouring the market for additional help. Like the Cardinals, they seem to be casting a wide net. In addition to high-impact hurlers in the Castillo/Montas range, they’ve also been linked to Pittsburgh’s José Quintana, who’d be a lower-cost depth pickup at the back end.

As for the Mariners, they have a range of areas they can add over the next six days. The M’s just wrapped up a sweep of the Rangers to pull to 54-45. They’re ten games back of the Astros in the AL West but in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re three games clear of the Guardians, the non-playoff team with the best record in the league.

With a strong opportunity to snap a playoff drought that has lasted more than two decades, the Mariners are in position to seek impact talent. Seattle entered play Wednesday with the sixth-lowest rotation ERA (3.65) in the majors. They’re middle-of-the-pack from a strikeout/walk perspective, however, with both Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales posting below-average strikeout rates. There are also possible innings concerns for highly-touted rookie George Kirby, who has already tallied 96 frames this season between the minors and big leagues. That’s above the 67 2/3 innings he logged in the upper minors last year, so there’s certainly room for another starter to relieve some of the pressure on Kirby down the stretch and for what the club hopes will be a postseason run.

Bullpen Rumors: Robertson, Cubs, Rays, Tigers, Dodgers

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Cubs closer David Robertson is among the most popular names on the trade market for relievers, and both New York clubs have interest in bringing him aboard. The Yankees, who’ve enjoyed two separate stints from Robertson in the past, are interested in another reunion with the 37-year-old righty, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff’s colleague Mike Puma, meanwhile, writes that the Mets are intrigued by Robertson in part because of how effective he’s been against left-handers this season. The Mets don’t have a reliable southpaw option at the moment and there that many quality lefty relievers available, so Robertson’s lack of a platoon split is an understandably appealing trait. FanSided’s Robert Murray writes that the Mets “love” Robertson. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that the Rays were among the teams evaluating the Cubs’ relievers.

Through 39 1/3 innings this season, Robertson has pitched to a 1.83 ERA with 14 saves and a big 31.4% strikeout rate — albeit with a bloated 11.9% walk rate. He’s earning just a $3.5MM base salary, though performance bonuses figure to take that number as high as $5.1MM. The majority of contending clubs figure to check in not only on Robertson but on Cubs righties Mychal Givens and Chris Martin, both of whom are free agents at season’s end. Murray notes that Givens has also been drawing strong interest around the league.

A few more notes on the market for relievers…

  • The Tigers are receiving trade interest on lefty Andrew Chafin and righties Michael Fulmer, Joe Jimenez and Alex Lange, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. McCosky spoke with both Fulmer and Jimenez about the complex emotions of potentially being traded away from the organization they’ve both called home for nearly their entire careers (or, in Jimenez’s case, for his entire pro career). It’s been apparent for some time now that Detroit’s slate of solid bullpen arms would hold major appeal to contending clubs at the deadline, and Fulmer and Chafin seem especially likely to go, given that they’ll both be eligible for free agency at season’s end. (Chafin has a $6.5MM player option.) Jimenez, controlled through 2023, stands a decent chance of being moved as well, but it’d be hard to part with Lange, whom the Tigers can control all the way through 2027. That said, Detroit is reportedly willing to listen on just about anyone, including lefty Tarik Skubal.
  • Dodgers righty Blake Treinen is taking longer to return than originally anticipated, though manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Treinen has not experienced a setback (Twitter link via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Treinen pitched a bullpen session yesterday but won’t face live hitters for a couple weeks still, which makes a late-August or early-September return likely. Robert said back in May that the organization hoped Treinen, who hasn’t pitched since April due to a shoulder injury, was targeting a return not long after the All-Star break. Treinen is joined on the injured list by Daniel Hudson, Tommy Kahnle, Brusdar Graterol and Victor Gonzalez, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Los Angeles pursue some bullpen upgrades before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Rizzo: Nationals Won’t “Dilute” Trade Returns By Attaching Bad Contracts

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As soon as it reported that the Nationals were willing to listen to offers on star outfielder Juan Soto, there was speculation about the possibility of utilizing Soto’s unprecedented trade value to dump some or all of the $59MM owed to Patrick Corbin in 2023-24. (Stephen Strasburg’s name was also a popular source of speculation, but he has full no-trade protection, making that scenario even less likely.) In his weekly radio appearance on 106.7 FM’s “The Sports Junkies,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo plainly stated that he will not water down his return for any player, Soto or otherwise, by insisting that a trade partner take on an undesirable contract (link to full audio of the 21-minute interview).

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” said Rizzo. “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.”

Fans hoping to see their favorite team absorb the Corbin contract in order to reduce the prospect cost of acquiring Soto can’t be thrilled by that declaration, but it’s the sensible course of action for Rizzo and his staff to take if they indeed follow through on a Soto trade — be it this summer or in the offseason. Rizzo did candidly acknowledge that the Nationals are discussing trades involving Soto and appear to have legitimate interest from several other clubs. Whether a team will meet a historic asking price (reportedly as many as six prospects and/or young big leaguers), of course, remains to be seen. Unsurprisingly, Rizzo did not offer any specifics pertaining to ongoing Soto discussions.

“When we offered Juan this contract, with his agent’s knowledge, we told him when the deal was turned down, ’We’re going to have to explore all our options,'” Rizzo continued. “That’s all we’ve ever said. I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t explore all the options now presented to us. We’ve got pretty good options. We’ve got a talented Juan Soto for two and a half more seasons. That’s Option A — it’s a good one. But we also have to think about options B and C. My job is to make this organization a consummate winner again, like we did from 2012 to 2019. I have to figure out ways, as the caretaker of this franchise, to make us a championship organization for a long time to come.”

Taking a step further back, Rizzo lamented that his team’s reported 15-year, $440MM extension offer to Soto became public. The GM stated that it “unequivocally” was not leaked by him or other members of the Nationals front office.

“[The leak] didn’t help us in anything we were trying to do,” said Rizzo. “It didn’t help us keep a good relationship with Juan, and it didn’t help us with any kind of leverage at the trade deadline. So it really hurt us that the information got out.”

Speaking further on the matter, Rizzo acknowledged that while reports of prior extension offers to Soto had contained inaccurate terms, the reported 15-year, $440MM terms of his team’s latest proposal were indeed accurate. He added that he doesn’t harbor any ill feelings toward Soto for the choice to turn down what would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history, but also pushed back on suggestions that Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM annual value should have any bearing on the AAV in a potential Soto deal. As Rizzo points out, a short-term deal for a 37-year-old pitcher is an entirely different beast than a 15-year offer to a 23-year-old who still has a pair of trips through the arbitration process remaining.

There was, of course, no firm declaration that Soto would be traded. Rizzo emphasized that the Nats are “going to have to get the deal that we want … that gets us the opportunity to become a championship organization faster than not trading him.” On the Lerner family’s looming sale of the Nationals franchise, Rizzo stated that the potential ownership change “has not factored one bit into the decision-making process.”

Fans of the Nats and virtually any other team will want to check out the whole interview, as Rizzo’s candor is both fascinating and uncommon among current baseball operations leaders throughout the league. Beyond the Soto drama, Rizzo also discusses the team’s recent draft, his respect for and relationship with the Boras Corporation, the broader state of the team’s ongoing “reboot,” and the confidence he has in his plan to engineer a swift turnaround for the organization.

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