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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

By | at November 2, 2022 3:51pm CDT

The Dodgers won the most regular-season games in the franchise’s 133-year history, cruising to a 111-51 record.  Unfortunately, that success made it all the more disappointing when the Dodgers didn’t even win a playoff round, falling to the Padres in four games in the NLDS.  Los Angeles now faces the possible departure of several key members of the roster, yet also a potential opportunity to reload with more premium talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mookie Betts, OF: $320MM through 2032 ($99MM is deferred)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $135MM through 2027 ($50MM is deferred)
  • Chris Taylor, IF/OF: $45MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout of club option for 2026)
  • Max Muncy, IF: $13.5MM through 2023 ($10MM club option for 2024, no buyout)
  • Blake Treinen, RP: $8MM through 2023 (conditional club option for 2024 based on Treinen’s health)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $7MM through 2024 ($3.5MM club option for 2025)
  • Daniel Hudson, RP: $6.5MM through 2023 ($6.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Note: Trevor Bauer is suspended without pay for the 2023 season, though Bauer is appealing the league’s ruling

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The price of being a perennial contender is that anything short of a World Series title feels like a letdown, though the Dodgers’ record has been so overwhelmingly good over the last decade that it’s hard to say that the franchise isn’t moving in the right direction.  This is the argument president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made in his after-season press conference, and yet it is also an argument Friedman has had to make in seven of his eight seasons running the L.A. front office.  Still, the 2020 World Series title is very recent evidence that Friedman’s approach can indeed get the Dodgers over the finish line, and the team will certainly go into 2023 as one of the favorites to capture another Commissioner’s Trophy.

Dave Roberts is coming back as manager, which isn’t surprising since the contract extension Roberts last spring hasn’t even officially begun.  Friedman also implied that the entire coaching staff will return, unless any coaches are offered promotions with other teams.  Adding to the “getting the band back together” feeling is the fact that the Dodgers already addressed some winter business by reaching extensions with Max Muncy, Daniel Hudson, Austin Barnes, and Blake Treinen during the season.

Of these new deals, Barnes is the only one who received a multi-year guarantee.  The Muncy, Hudson, and Treinen extensions all essentially amounted to the Dodgers guaranteeing a pre-existing club option for 2023, while adding another club option for 2024.  There was still some risk in these decisions, given that L.A. has now committed $14.5MM to two relievers who combined for 29 1/3 innings last season — Hudson was pitching very well before tearing his ACL in June, while Treinen barely pitched at all due to persistent shoulder injuries.

Muncy had an unusual season, and was undoubtedly impacted by a partial UCL tear in his left elbow suffered on the last day of the 2021 regular season.  Muncy opted against surgery, and then struggled to a .161/.310/.303 slash line over his first 339 plate appearances before turning it around to hit .247/.358/.500 in his final 226 PA.  His extension was announced a few weeks into that late-season hot streak, indicating that the Dodgers are confident that Muncy can get back to his old form when fully healthy.

Even with these four potential free agents locked up, Los Angeles still has a long list of names set to hit the open market, and even more notables that could also become free agents depending on club options or non-tenders.  Muncy’s extension may be seen as a hedge against an infield overhaul, considering that Trea Turner will be one of the headliners of the 2022-23 free agent class, backup Hanser Alberto is probably unlikely to be retained, and the Dodgers face a $14MM decision on whether or not to exercise the club option of longtime staple Justin Turner.  The third baseman turns 38 in November and is coming off an inconsistent 2022 season,

The first base and catcher positions are locked down by Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.  Muncy can play second or third base, and Gavin Lux can continue at second base or slide over to shortstop if Turner departs.  Edwin Rios has been plagued with injuries over the last two seasons, but he has shown enough flashes of hitting potential and the Dodgers will likely tender him a contract and hope he can contribute to the corner infield mix (though like Muncy and Freeman, Rios is also a left-handed hitter).  Top prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut last season and also figures to be a factor in left field or third base, even if the Dodgers may not be sure about his eventual position in the majors.  Super-utilityman Chris Taylor can fill in all over the infield, though Taylor was mostly deployed as an outfielder last season and is looking to bounce back after a disappointing season.

Many teams would be quite satisfied with a starting infield of Smith, Freeman, Muncy, Lux, and a Vargas/Rios platoon at third base, with Taylor as a multi-position backup and touted rookies Michael Busch (a top-100 prospect in his own right) and Jacob Amaya knocking on the door for their own Major League debuts.  But…this is the Dodgers we’re talking about.  They prize roster flexibility, and they have the financial resources and minor league depth to pursue just about every free agent or trade candidate on the market.

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers exercise Justin Turner’s option, re-sign Trea Turner, and just run things back with the core infield of an 111-win team.  If Trea Turner departed, Los Angeles could certainly turn to one of their other star shortstops in the free agent market, and there have been some rumblings that the Dodgers are looking at Carlos Correa as their top alternative at the shortstop position.

L.A. could also potentially upgrade the infield by adding to the outfield, such as a scenario where Mookie Betts is suddenly a big part of the second base mix when Aaron Judge is signed to play right field.  The Dodgers (as is their nature with every top free agent) have at least some interest in Judge, and while both Judge or Betts could be in the same outfield if one of them occasionally plays center field, returning Betts to his old second base position would certainly bolster the infield in the event of Trea Turner’s possible departure.

Because this is the Dodgers, a scenario can’t be ruled out where both Judge and Trea Turner are signed, with Los Angeles flexing its payroll muscles once again.  That said, a case could be made that the Dodgers might see this winter as a chance to reset their luxury tax penalties.  A lot of money is coming off the books in the form of the in-house free agents, leaving around $165.4MM committed to the 2023 roster in dollars, and a projected Competitive Balance Tax bill of just under $184MM.

Obviously, the Dodgers don’t have any qualms about paying CBT penalties in general, as they’ve soared over the tax line in each of the last two seasons.  Three consecutive years of tax overages increases the penalties, however, both in terms of actual money paid on the tax bill, and (most importantly for the Dodgers) continued impact on the compensation both received and handed out regarding qualifying-offer free agents.  For instance, Trea Turner will surely be issued a QO and reject it to test the market, and if signs elsewhere, Los Angeles will receive only a pick after the fourth round of the draft as compensation.  Likewise, if the Dodgers signed Judge or another player who turned down a QO, the Dodgers would have to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft, as well as $1MM in international bonus pool funds.

All of these penalties would disappear next winter if the Dodgers got under the $233MM luxury tax threshold in 2023, and the roughly $49MM of current tax wiggle room would allow for L.A. to still make some necessary roster additions.  The Dodgers can also carve out more room by trades or non-tenders, and Cody Bellinger‘s projected $18.1MM salary stands out in this regard.

Since winning the NL MVP Award in 2019, Bellinger has hit only .203/.272/.376 with 41 homers over 1143 plate appearances.  His offense particularly cratered following shoulder surgery during the 2020-21 offseason, and other injuries have also contributed to Bellinger’s sharp decline at the plate.  Though he is still an excellent defensive center fielder and a strong baserunner, that’s a skillset that the Dodgers can replace for a lot less than $18.1MM.  (Speculatively, Friedman might look to an old friend from his days in Tampa Bay now that former Gold Glover Kevin Kiermaier is entering free agency.)

There is a chance Bellinger isn’t tendered a contract and then re-signed to a lower salary, but of course he could also pursue a change of scenery with another team looking to buy low on a former MVP.  Friedman is likely to explore trade possibilities for Bellinger before the non-tender deadline, but apart from a scenario where Bellinger is swapped for another team’s undesirable contract, interested clubs might see if they can wait out the Dodgers and then pounce on Bellinger if he is indeed non-tendered.

Despite Bellinger’s struggles, his departure would leave a hole in the Los Angeles outfield.  Betts remains the cornerstone piece, and journeyman Trayce Thompson unexpectedly broke out in a huge way after being acquired in an under-the-radar pickup from the Tigers in June.  Thompson played so well that he certainly has earned a place on the 2023 team, but without much of a track record of consistent MLB success, the Dodgers might still consider him more of a part-timer than as a sure thing for everyday action.  If nothing else, Thompson might at least take over Bellinger’s role as a defensive standout, with upside at the plate.

As noted, Taylor is looking to rebound from a disappointing season that was plagued by injuries.  Joey Gallo didn’t hit well after joining the Dodgers and probably won’t be re-signed.  Kevin Pillar missed almost the entire season due to a fractured shoulder but might be a better bet to return as a depth option, since he’d only require a minor league contract.  Lux, Vargas, and rookie James Outman are other in-house names for at least occasional outfield duty, plus Busch and another top prospect in Andy Pages should get involved in the outfield mix.

Even with all these names available, it seems as if there’s enough instability here that it seems likelier that the Dodgers make a notable outside acquisition to address the outfield rather than the infield, as the infield can be more easily addressed just by “only” exercising Justin Turner’s option.  Whether that outside acquisition is a blockbuster like a Judge signing or a major trade, or maybe just more lower-tier moves to add another regular to the lineup, expect Los Angeles to check into all possibilities.

The same can be said about the starting rotation, as again, the Dodgers have some well-regarded prospects in Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot who made their Major League debuts in 2022.  Just slotting Grove and Pepiot behind Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin doesn’t leave much depth, however, and L.A. will certainly want more veteran experience in the starting five.

Clayton Kershaw rejoined the Dodgers on a one-year, $17MM free agent contract last season, signing the day after the lockout ended.  Kershaw said he took the time provided by the lockout to both heal up some injuries and consider his future, and the result was an excellent (if injury-shortened) 2022 campaign.  Even as Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and health questions may limit him to around the 124 innings he has averaged over the last two seasons, Kershaw has still looked like one of the league’s best pitchers when he’s on the mound.  Barring a change of heart, Kershaw looks like a good bet to return to action in 2023, and will almost certainly do so either with the Dodgers or perhaps his hometown Rangers (who have big need in the rotation and a lot of money to offer).

Re-signing Kershaw would check off one major box for the Dodgers’ offseason, but they also have to address the potential losses of Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.  Two lower-cost free agent signings from the 2021-22 offseason, Anderson pitched so well that he made the All-Star team and made himself a borderline qualifying-offer candidate, while Heaney missed time with shoulder problems but still contributed a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 innings.

Heaney’s injuries might increase chances of a return to Los Angeles, as he might not require a multi-year contract, and the Dodgers could use Pepiot and Grove as backup plans if Heaney has to miss more time.  One would imagine L.A. would also want to retain Anderson given how he broke out in Dodger Blue, but the Dodgers might also prefer to look for “the next” Tyler Anderson, i.e. another relatively inexpensive veteran who might blossom under the watch of pitching coach Mark Prior.

Between finding these hidden gems and their ability to draft and develop homegrown pitching talent, the Dodgers have been able to field a consistently strong rotation despite numerous injuries (such as the Tommy John surgery that will likely keep Walker Buehler sidelined until 2024) and off-the-field issues like Trevor Bauer’s suspension.  That said, Los Angeles always seems to be an arm or two short heading into the playoffs, as injuries have often forced the Dodgers to reshuffle both their rotation and bullpen, sometimes with disastrous consequences.

As such, it is certainly possible that the Dodgers could bolster this group with a pitcher who provides more durability than Kershaw or Heaney, and has more of an established track record than the rookies.  The free agent market offers several major names, and while there aren’t a ton of clubs with enough quality pitching to offer in trades, the Marlins do fit that description, and L.A. had some interest in right-hander Pablo Lopez at the deadline.  The Dodgers have the prospect depth to at least start a conversation about any pitcher in trade talks, though some possibilities are more realistic than others — for instance, even though the Angels’ possible sale has cast a lot of uncertainty over the franchise, it is hard to imagine the Angels dealing Shohei Ohtani to their local rivals.

Turning to the bullpen, the Dodgers figure to have some interest in re-signing Tommy Kahnle or deadline pickup Chris Martin, even though the current relief corps is pretty deep.  The biggest question is at the back of the bullpen, as it doesn’t look like saves leader Craig Kimbrel is in the team’s plans.  Kimbrel was removed from the closer’s job and wasn’t even included on the Dodgers’ NLDS roster following a season that saw him post a 3.75 ERA over 60 innings, with a lot of walks and hard contact allowed, plus a drop in his usually-elite strikeout rate.

If Los Angeles doesn’t adopt a closer committee or turn to one of its in-house options as a top choice for the ninth inning, Edwin Diaz is the top closer available in free agency if the Dodgers wanted to splurge.  Such names as David Robertson or Taylor Rogers might hold some interest for the L.A. front office, and while a reunion with Kenley Jansen is possible, it might be a little unusual to see Jansen return to the Dodgers a year after they were comfortable in letting him depart to join the Braves.

Then again, pretty much anything is on the table for a creative front office that has money to spend and prospects to trade, so another active offseason awaits for the Dodgers.  Any number of headline-grabbing moves are possible, as well as less-heralded transactions (like obtaining Thompson or Yency Almonte) that end up paying big dividends during the season.

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Mets Prioritizing Retaining Brandon Nimmo And Edwin Díaz

By | at November 2, 2022 2:47pm CDT

The Mets have a huge batch of players departing their roster for free agency in the coming days, a list that includes Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin and almost the entire bullpen, including closer Edwin Díaz. That group is likely to be joined by Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, who all either have opt-outs they can trigger or options they can turn down. However, the Mets are most interested in retaining Díaz and Nimmo out of that group, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

The club’s interest in Nimmo is fairly understandable for a few reasons. For one thing, Nimmo is very good, having been above-average at the plate in each of the past six seasons. For his career, he’s gotten into 608 games and has walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances, much better than league average, producing an overall batting line of .269/.385/.441. That production is 34% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 134 wRC+, with Nimmo putting up the same number in 2022.

Nimmo is also a serviceable defender in center field, though defensive metrics disagree on exactly how effective he is on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -3 this year, but a +4 last year. Ultimate Zone Rating was at -0.4 in 2022 after giving Nimmo a 2.9 in 2021. Outs Above Average was the most optimistic, pegging him with a six this year and a three last year.

Perhaps most importantly, Nimmo stayed healthy this year, getting into 151 games in the regular season and three more in the playoffs. Health has often been a question mark around Nimmo, with 2022 being just the second time he’s gotten into more than 100 games in a campaign. However, he played 55 games in the shortened 2020 season and 92 last year, meaning he’s going into free agency on the heels of a fairly strong three-year stretch in the health department.

What also adds to Nimmo’s appeal is the fairly weak crop of free agent center fielders this year. Outside of Nimmo and Aaron Judge, who’s never been a full-time center fielder, the top option is probably the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays hold a club option for Kiermaier but are likely to turn it down given his down year and season-ending hip surgery. Cody Bellinger could join the market if the Dodgers decide to non-tender him, though the reason they might do that is because he’s hit so poorly over the past two years. Beyond that group, there aren’t a lot of realistic options who can be expected to secure everyday jobs. As the Mets watch Nimmo depart, the easiest path to filling his vacancy is to simply bring him back.

General manager Billy Eppler recently said that the club is open to moving Starling Marte from right to center, but also spoke highly of Nimmo. Given that Marte recently turned 34 and didn’t play much center this year, it would be a riskier move to ride with him as opposed to bringing Nimmo back. Of course, retaining Nimmo will mean beating the market and paying him to stick around. Given Nimmo’s talents and the dearth of more attractive options, he surely won’t be cheap.

As for Díaz, it’s fairly understandable that the club would want to retain him as well. He is one of seven relievers that the Mets are about to lose to the open market, meaning they will have to effectively rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Starting with arguably the best reliever on the planet is a good way to kick things off. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31 in 2022. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated.

Given that excellence, Díaz will also be looking at a nice payday on the open market. The record deal for a reliever is the five-year, $86MM deal signed by the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. Díaz has a compelling case that he’s currently as good as Chapman was then or perhaps even better. Since that contract is six years old at this point and inflation generally pushes contracts upwards over time, it’s entirely possible that Díaz sets a new record. Given that the Mets have so many holes to fill, there would be some sense in avoiding mega deals while spreading their money around, but there’s also no doubt that retaining Díaz adds a huge lockdown element to help them win close ballgames.

The fact that the Mets have set their targets on Nimmo and Díaz doesn’t necessarily mean that they are not interested in their other potential free agents, such as deGrom, Walker or Bassitt. Roster Resource estimates the 2023 payroll is around $231MM at the moment, though that will drop by about $40MM when deGrom and Walker trigger their opt-outs. Assuming the Mets pick up Carlos Carrasco‘s $14MM club option instead of the $3MM buyout, that will add $11MM back on. Factoring in a couple of non-tenders and the club could be around $200MM, give or take. Owner Steve Cohen has hinted at a $300MM spending limit, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, which leaves plenty of room to make multiple signings if that’s the way the club wants to go. Of course, the players also have a say in the matter, as do the 29 other teams. The Mets will have many strands to follow this winter, even if Nimmo and Díaz are currently at the top of the agenda.

One other route the club has considered is bringing in another Díaz, as Martino reports that the Mets tried to acquire Alexis Díaz from the Reds at the deadline a few months back. Alexis is Edwin’s younger brother and Martino reports that the two are quite close. Seeing the two brothers form a fraternal one-two punch at the back of the bullpen would certainly be exciting, but prying him loose from Cincinnati won’t be easy. 2022 was his first season in the big leagues, meaning the Reds still have five seasons of control over his services, including two more campaigns before Alexis even qualifies for a salary raise via arbitration. The debut could hardly have gone much better, as he tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.84 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate, though his 12.9% walk rate was a few ticks above league average. He worked his way up the club’s depth chart as the season went on, earning 13 holds and 10 saves.

The Mets are reportedly hesitant to deal from their prospect depth at the moment, preferring to add to the big league team via free agency while they try to get their farm into good shape. That could make a deal unlikely to come together, though it adds another layer of intrigue to an offseason full of it.

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Tigers Claim Sean Guenther From Marlins

By | at November 2, 2022 1:45pm CDT

The Tigers announced that they have claimed left-hander Sean Guenther off waivers from the Marlins. He was on the 60-day injured list and remains there for now. Additionally, the Marlins have outrighted right-hander Paul Campbell and lefty Jake Fishman, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.

At this time of year, many teams are facing roster crunches with no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training. Players on the 60-day IL, like Guenther, don’t count against a team’s 40-man count but will soon need to retake spots. Furthermore, the deadline for adding players to the roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft is November 15. Given those pressures, some teams are trying to proactively clear some space in anticipation of those upcoming choke points. It seems that the Marlins placed these three hurlers on waivers in recent days, losing one of them to Detroit.

Guenther, 27 in December, missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. Given the general 12-18 month recovery time for TJS, he’ll miss at least part of the 2023 season as well but could return for a portion of it. He made his MLB debut in 2021 and put up an unfortunate 9.30 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. He was much better in the minors, however, as he tossed 40 1/3 innings with a 3.12 ERA, 34% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 47.2% ground ball rate.

Those are certainly intriguing numbers, even if he has yet to translate them to the big leagues. It makes sense for the Tigers to be interested, especially since he’s not currently costing them a roster spot. However, as mentioned, the IL will be going away in a few days. Given the large number of injuries suffered by Tigers this year, Roster Resource currently counts 48 guys on the 40-man roster, with that number factoring in free agency departures. It’s possible that Guenther ends up back on waivers again in a few days, alongside several other Tigers. If he were to pass through unclaimed at that point, the Tigers would be able to keep him around as depth without him taking up a roster spot.

Campbell, 27, was drafted by the Rays but went to the Marlins in the 2020 Rule 5 draft. In 2021, he missed time after being given an 80-game PED suspension, with Campbell issuing a statement refuting the results of the test. He eventually returned and finished the season with a 6.41 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. In 2022, he was placed on the IL in April due to an elbow strain and never returned. He can stick around the Marlins’ organization as a depth arm without occupying a roster spot.

Fishman, 28 in February, was on and off the Marlins roster this year. He was selected to the roster on three separate occasions, with the first two both resulting in a DFA after a few days, followed by clearing waivers and being outrighted. He managed to throw 11 MLB innings with a 4.09 ERA, while also tossing 56 frames in Triple-A with a 2.25 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 54.2% ground ball rate. Due to the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career, he has the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency, though it’s unclear whether he’s chosen to do so or not.

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The Opener: Guardians, Rays, Yankees

By | at November 2, 2022 8:08am CDT

Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With Game 3 of the World Series in the rear-view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Guardians Dominate Gold Glove Award Results

This year’s Gold Glove award winners were announced yesterday, with a remarkable amount of first time winners. Also remarkable is the way Cleveland dominated the AL; while no other team took home more than two Gold Gloves, the Guardians brought in a whopping four: Shane Bieber at pitcher, Andres Gimenez at second base, Steven Kwan in left field, and Myles Straw in center field. All four of the team’s Gold Glove recipients are under team control for multiple seasons, with Bieber set to hit free agency after 2024, Gimenez after 2027 and both Straw and Kwan under team control through the end of the 2028 season. These gold glove awards not only serve as a reminder of the successful season the Guardians had, but of the incredible youth of the roster, and the team control that comes with that youth.

2. The Rays Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration

Yesterday’s announcement of this year’s Super-Two cutoff prompts a re-examination of the coming arbitration class. The Rays have 19 players up for arbitration this offseason, the most in the majors. Matt Swartz projects Tampa to have to pay out over $42MM to retain all of their arbitration eligible players, it seems all but guaranteed that the Rays will have some tough decisions to make in terms of who to keep, who to trade, and who to non-tender. First baseman Ji-Man Choi, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough and catcher Francisco Mejia highlight the list of Rays in this arbitration class who may change uniforms this offseason as Tampa’s front office looks to optimize their limited financial resources.

3. Yankees To Explore Trade Market

The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted in a mailbag yesterday that the Yankees “simply have to try” trading third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks this offseason, citing both roster flexibility and payroll concerns. Hicks and Donaldson are set to cost the Yankees a combined $32MM this offseason, money a team focused on attempting to retain likely AL MVP Aaron Judge while simultaneously improving other areas of the roster would surely like to use elsewhere. Neither player can be expected to bring much of significance back to New York in trade, however. Donaldson is coming off a down season that saw him post a below average OPS+ for the first time since establishing himself as a full time player in 2013, and will play next season at age 37. Hicks, meanwhile, slashed just .216/.330/.313 in his first full season of games since 2018. While he’s younger than Donaldson, he still celebrated his 33rd birthday last month. Kirschner speculates that Hicks could bring back a “mid- to low-level” prospect, but the more likely scenario is that the Yankees would have to engage in some sort of bad contract swap or attach a mid- to low-level prospect of their own to move these aging, expensive batters.

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Latest On Nationals’ Sales Process, MASN Deal

By | at November 2, 2022 12:04am CDT

As the Lerner family continues to explore a sale of the Nationals, the franchise’s ongoing dispute with the Orioles over television rights fees looms. Major League Baseball has renewed its efforts to try to broker an agreement between the franchises, write Barry Svrluga, Chelsea Janes and Ben Strauss of the Washington Post. The Talk Nats blog first reported last month that MLB was getting involved in trying to bring the sides together.

As both the Washington Post and Talk Nats have covered during the sales process, the TV rights dispute presents a fair bit of uncertainty for prospective Nationals buyers. As part of the relocation efforts to move the franchise from Montreal to Washington nearly two decades ago, the Nationals agreed to tie their local broadcasting rights to the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. MASN is jointly owned by the Nats and Orioles, but the Orioles’ ownership share is roughly 77% while the Nats own around 23%. That agreement, a condition of the franchise’s relocation into the Orioles’ geographic territorial rights, caps the Nationals’ TV revenue by making it impermissible for them to sell broadcasting rights to a regional sports network.

The Post notes the original agreement expressly stipulates that the Nationals’ obligations under the MASN deal would carry over in the event of a sale of a franchise. Thus, the unfavorable TV situation is a key consideration for those in discussions with the Lerners.

That’s all the more true in light of recent movement on that front. As Talk Nats and the Post have each reported, a group led by Ted Leonsis now appears to be the frontrunner in the sales process. Leonsis’ Monumental Sports & Entertainment also owns the NHL’s Capitals, the NBA’s Wizards and the WNBA’s Mystics, as well as having full control of NBC Sports Washington. Finding a way to broadcast games on NBCS Washington figures to be a key objective for Leonsis if his group eventually purchases the Nats, but they’d need to negotiate a settlement with the Orioles to buy out of their end of the MASN agreement to do so. Whether the Baltimore franchise would have interest in such an arrangement isn’t clear.

Of course, there’s a strong interest on MLB’s part in facilitating some kind of settlement. Both Talk Nats and the Post have suggested the TV rights uncertainty has slowed down the sale process, and it raises some questions about the franchise’s price point. The league would prefer to see the Nationals sold for a high price (and, to a lesser extent, to expedite the process). The Lerner family has reportedly sought around $2.5 billion.

Hanging over the potential negotiations is an acrimonious past between the Orioles and Nats that hasn’t been resolved. Disputes about the Nationals’ share of TV rights led to litigation that has been pending for nearly a decade. In 2019, an arbitrator ruled the network owed the Nationals around $105MM in unpaid rights fees. MASN appealed that decision, and the appeal has still yet to get on the docket for the New York Court of Appeals.

Interestingly, while an eventual sale to Leonsis still appears to be the likeliest outcome, one person familiar with the process tells the Post a number of paths remain possible. That source suggests the Lerners could still retain majority control in the long run, or perhaps bring in a minority owner initially with a longer-term path to majority ownership. (As an example of that sort of arrangement, the Guardians agreed to a sale in June that sees incoming buyer David Blitzer purchase roughly 25-30% of the franchise initially but have the right to purchase majority control six years down the line).

As the parties try to iron through the TV deal and potential sale, the Nationals’ on-field product is coming off an MLB-worst 55-107 season. They’re firmly amidst a rebuild and have cut back payroll dramatically. The franchise has approached $200MM on player payrolls in the past, but Roster Resource calculates their 2023 expenditures (including arbitration estimates) around $98MM. Svrulga, Strauss and Janes write that a few of the team’s baseball operations staffers have expressed some uncertainty about the organization’s spending capacity and overall direction this winter. Both manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo will stick around, at least, with the club picking up 2023 options on each this past summer.

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Eppler: Mets Willing To Play Starling Marte In Center Field

By | at November 1, 2022 10:00pm CDT

The Mets are facing a number of high-profile free agents as the offseason looms. Among them is center fielder Brandon Nimmo, who’s easily the best non-Aaron Judge free agent option at the position. Nimmo and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon hear from a number of interested teams, as they’re allowed to formally speak with clubs other than the Mets five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

New York will surely keep in touch with Nimmo themselves, but they do have a potential in-house replacement if he departs. Starling Marte had played exclusively center field with the D-Backs, Marlins and A’s from 2020-21, but he moved to right field in deference to Nimmo after signing a four-year free agent deal last offseason. Marte didn’t start a single game in center field in 2022, logging all of five innings at the position. He played just under 1000 innings in right field.

After spending a year playing in a corner and having recently turned 34 years old, it’s fair to wonder if Marte’s days as a regular center fielder could be behind him. Speaking with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on The Show podcast this morning (Twitter link), Mets general manager Billy Eppler said the team would be comfortable deploying Marte as their primary center fielder in 2023 if necessary.

“Can Starling still play center field? Yeah, we believe he can,” Eppler told the Post. “That opens up some optionality for how we ultimately fill out that outfield. … We do have the ability to slide Marte over to center for a number of games, over 50% of the games. He’s got that ability to do that. … We are comfortable with him in center field.”

That’s certainly not a declaration the Mets are closing the book on retaining Nimmo. Eppler called re-signing Nimmo “not a closed case by any stretch of the imagination” and broadly spoke highly of his ability. One can argue for the Mets bringing back Nimmo as the center fielder and a top-of-the-lineup presence while keeping Marte and Mark Canha in the corners. Yet as Eppler noted, the possibly for Marte to slide back up the middle offers some additional flexibility in building out the roster if Nimmo does depart.

Public defensive metrics were mixed on Marte’s performance in right field during his debut season in Queens. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as three runs better than the average right fielder. Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Runs Above Average metric each pegged him below par, with UZR assigning him a -8 mark and Statcast putting him at -2. Eppler didn’t address Marte’s defensive metrics specifically but noted the outfielder battled some tightness in his left groin midway through the season. That perhaps explains in part a dip in his range that shouldn’t linger into 2023 after an offseason of recovery. Marte had zero MLB experience in right field before 2022, but he’d been consistently excellent in the other corner spot throughout his career.

His recent center field work has been mixed but serviceable. Between 2020-21, Marte logged 1509 1/3 innings in center. Both Statcast and UZR rated him a hair better than average, while DRS had him at a below-average but not intolerable -6 runs over that stretch.

In any event, the Mets will have to add an outfielder this offseason. Retaining Nimmo and keeping Marte and Canha in the corners would be the most straightforward outcome. Still, a nine-figure Nimmo deal could be beyond their liking as they also see players like Jacob deGrom, Edwin Díaz, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker (the latter two of whom are locks to decline options) hit the market. New York has as much spending capacity as any team under owner Steve Cohen, but they’re virtually certain to see at least a couple players of note depart for loftier guarantees elsewhere.

If Nimmo is among that group, the Mets would have more to work with attacking the corner outfield market than adding a center fielder. Aside from Judge and Nimmo, the top free agent center fielder is likely Kevin Kiermaier, who’ll be bought out by the Rays after an injury-plagued year. A Cody Bellinger non-tender would add an excellent glove to the mix and vault him above Kiermaier as the #3 option, but Bellinger is a .193/.256/.355 hitter over his past 900 plate appearances. There also aren’t any clear upgrades who’ll be available in trade, with players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds looking unlikely to move.

The corner outfield market is a bit deeper. Judge is obviously the prize, but the middle tier of free agency offers options like Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Joey Gallo, Michael Brantley and old friend Michael Conforto. There’s also a wider pool of potential trade candidates, with Hunter Renfroe, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Max Kepler and Anthony Santander among those who could be floated in talks over the coming months.

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By | at November 1, 2022 8:24pm CDT

2022 was a big success for the Padres, as they made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They then knocked off the 101-win Mets as well as the 111-win Dodgers, slaying “the dragon up the freeway.” The Phillies put a stop to the magic in the NLCS but it was still the best campaign in recent Padres history. They have a strong core together to keep the good times going in 2023, but will also have to address some gaps created when some key pieces hit free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Padres also owe Eric Hosmer, since traded to the Red Sox, the majority of the three years and $39MM left on his contract. The Red Sox will pay him the league minimum with the Padres paying the rest. Hosmer can opt out after 2022 but is unlikely to do so.

Total 2023 commitments: $128.11MM
Total future commitments: $727.45MM

Options Decisions

  • Wil Myers, OF: $20MM club option with $1MM buyout.
  • Jurickson Profar, OF: $7.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Contract also has mutual option for 2024.
  • Nick Martinez, RP: $6.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Same structure exists for 2024 and 2025.
  • Robert Suarez, RP: $5MM player option with $1MM buyout.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Padres stole the show at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto in one of the most unique trades in baseball history. He still has a couple years of arbitration eligibility to go, meaning the Friars will be able to enjoy a full season of Soto’s work in 2023. In terms of the other deadline pickups, Brandon Drury and Josh Bell are heading to free agency but Josh Hader has one arb year left, allowing the Padres to hang onto him.

Soto will be locked into right field, with Trent Grisham likely next to him in center. Grisham didn’t have a great year at the plate in 2022, but he’s still valuable due to his speed and defense. Left field could be wide open, as Jurickson Profar is lined up to opt out of the final season of his three-year deal. He’s set to make $7.5MM but could take the $1MM buyout and look to find more than $6.5MM on the open market to come out ahead. Wil Myers also saw some time in the outfield in 2022, though the Padres are sure to give him the $1MM buyout instead of picking up his $20MM option.

Of course, one complicating factor that needs to be considered is the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. An injury incurred via motorcycle accident during the lockout kept him out of action for the first half of 2022 and then a PED suspension prevented him appearing in the second half. The Padres will have to make a decision on where Tatis fits after that disappointing sequence of events. He still has 20 games remaining on his suspension but will be eligible to return to the team after that. While he was out of action, Ha-Seong Kim took over the shortstop job and had an excellent season.

Tatis has played some outfield in the past while dealing with injuries that kept him off short. He could theoretically be moved onto the grass going forward, but it seems the club is leaning towards a plan where Tatis returns to short, Kim moves over to second and Jake Cronenworth gets bumped to first. With Myers, Drury and Bell all departing, that would open up first for Cronenworth. Manny Machado is coming off an excellent season and will be a mainstay at third. If that is indeed the plan they wish to follow, adding a corner outfielder should be the main priority on the position player side of things.

The Friars have some internal options who could step up, such as José Azocar or Brandon Dixon, but they should be looking for an upgrade here. The top of the outfield market this winter will be Aaron Judge, who is set up for a massive payday. The Padres have shown they are not afraid to make a huge strike, meaning they can’t be ruled out on getting Judge and perhaps moving Soto over to left. However, with many large contracts already in place, they might opt for more modest options like Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley or Mitch Haniger. They could also be a fit for Trey Mancini, who can play first base and the outfield corners. Bringing back Drury and his positional versatility is also a logical move.

Behind the plate, the Padres have three MLB-caliber catchers in place, though they will have to make a decision about whether or not to keep all of them around next year. Jorge Alfaro didn’t get much time behind the plate towards the end of the year, only starting at catcher four times after rosters expanded at the start of September. The rest of the starts went to Austin Nola and Luis Campusano. With Alfaro striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances and not getting great marks for his defensive work, the club likely moves on and lets Campusano finally have some real playing time. He debuted in 2020 but still only has 28 MLB games on his résumé. With Alfaro projected for an arbitration salary of $3.6MM, he’s likely to be non-tendered.

In the rotation, the Padres will still have a strong front three, as Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are all under contract for next year. They will have to make decisions about the backend, though, as Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are both headed into free agency. The Padres also weakened their depth by including MacKenzie Gore in the Soto trade.

There is one in-house option in Adrian Morejon, with the club evidently not giving up on him as a starter. Morejon underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 and returned to make 26 appearances in 2022, though all of those were out of the bullpen. But prior to that, he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league. It’s fairly logical that the Padres would want to give him another chance to see what he can do, but it’s also unlikely they will simply hand him a guaranteed spot in the rotation after a long layoff and then a handful of bullpen outings.

There are a couple of other depth options in the system, but the Padres will likely be looking to add two starters. There will be no shortage of options, with Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón all expected to trigger opt-outs and form the top of the pitching market. For teams that miss out on those guys, there are still lots of interesting hurlers on the next tier, including Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson and many more. They could also look to the trade market, perhaps trying to get Pablo López or Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. But after unloading so many prospects at the deadline, they might not want to further subtract from their system.

The bullpen also might need some upgrades, especially if Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez both decide to opt out and return to free agency. If they did, they would join Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson, potentially subtracting four arms from the relief corps. They would still have Josh Hader, which is a fine starting point and means they probably won’t go for Edwin Diaz. But they could look for quality setup options, such as bringing back Suarez or going after Michael Fulmer, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Brad Hand. Martinez would reportedly prefer to be a starter, so perhaps they could convince him to stick around, if they think he can handle a rotation spot. Suarez, however, is a virtual lock to test free agency and land a multi-year deal.

Of course, how aggressive they go after filling these vacancies will depend upon the payroll situation. Historically, the Padres were not huge spenders but they have shifted that reputation in recent years, even nudging into luxury tax territory in each of the past two seasons. Roster Resource estimates their actual 2023 payroll to currently be around $187MM though the CBT number is much higher at $213MM. The disparity comes from the fact that CBT calculations are based on the average annual values of contracts, not just the salary earned by the players in 2023, and also factor in player benefits.

It’s unknown at this point how much the club is willing to spend, but it’s possible they could take the same approach as they did in 2022, hovering near the tax line but willing to go over it at the deadline if the right opportunity comes along. The lowest CBT threshold is jumping from $230MM up to $233MM for 2023, but that wouldn’t leave the Padres a lot of room to work with. A few non-tenders would create some more breathing room, but probably only about $5MM or so.

The club has plenty of talent but could use a left fielder, two starting pitchers, some relievers and maybe a first baseman as well. If they only have about $20MM to play with, it will be difficult to accomplish all of that. But the Padres have shown in recent years that they might have more money in the bank than you’d expect. Perhaps this offseason will prove that yet again.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Padres-centric chat on 11-2-22. Click here to read the transcript.

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MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

By | at November 1, 2022 6:47pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

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Cardinals Outright Kramer Robertson, Kodi Whitley

By | at November 1, 2022 5:54pm CDT

The Cardinals have outrighted infielder Kramer Robertson and right-hander Kodi Whitley, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com.

Robertson, 28, began 2022 as a Cardinal but ended up bouncing around a bit. He went to Atlanta and then to the Mets before returning to the Cards on a series of waiver claims. It seems that he passed through waivers unclaimed this time around and will stick around the organization as depth.

Despite all that bouncing around, he only got into two major league games this year, spending most of the year on various minor league clubs. In 116 Triple-A games this year, he hit .239/.393/.363 for a wRC+ of 114. That high on-base rate and limited power have been a part of this repertoire for a while now, though he also brings defensive versatility to the table. He spent time at second base, third base and shortstop this season.

As for Whitley, 27, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in July of 2020 and has been an up-and-down arm for the club since then. He’s thrown 42 2/3 innings at the big league level over the past three seasons, registering a combined 3.38 ERA with a strong 24.9% strikeout rate but a high 12.4% walk rate. The needles moved in the wrong direction in 2022, as his ERA was up at 5.68, his punchouts down to 20.3% and his walks were up at 15.3%. Like Robertson, he will stick with the organization as depth but without taking up a spot on the 40-man.

Many teams face roster crunches at this time of year, given that there’s no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning guys on the 60-day IL will need spots again. Also, the deadline for adding players to protect them for the Rule 5 draft is coming up in mid-November. With those pressures, it seems that Robertson and Whitley were squeezed out and the Cards were willing to risk losing them on waivers.

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