Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market
Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).
Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.
Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.
Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.
With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.
It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.
Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea
The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.
Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.
That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.
It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.
That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.
Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.
Cubs, Brailyn Marquez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Brailyn Marquez, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. He’d been non-tendered last month, removing him from the 40-man roster.
After a couple weeks on the open market, Marquez returns to the only organization he’s known. Signed out the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 international amateur period, Marquez blossomed into one of the game’s most talented pitching prospects. Owner of a fastball that worked into the upper 90s, he appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects league-wide in both 2020 and ’21. Shaky control led to some speculation he could wind up in the bullpen as a potential high-leverage reliever.
Unfortunately, injuries have thrown off that once-promising career. Marquez made his big league debut with one appearance during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch since then. He’s spent each of the past two years on the minor league injured list, and he underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder in June. Chicago decided at year’s end to cut him from the 40-man roster as a result.
Still just 24 in January, Marquez will try to get back onto the roster in 2023. He clearly has a fair bit of potential when healthy, but it remains to be seen what kind of form he’ll show after the rehab from the shoulder procedure.
Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Wong, Vazquez, Contreras, Heaney
“No progress towards a deal was made” when the Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts‘ agent Scott Boras met yesterday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes. Earlier reports suggested that other teams had pulled ahead of the Sox in the race to sign the All-Star, though chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Bogaerts was still a major priority for the club.
As one might expect, Boras highlighted the amount of interest his client is generating from multiple teams, while not closing the door on any other suitor. In regards to the Red Sox, Boras said “I just know we continue to talk and have dialogue and continue the process with them. The Red Sox, they kind of have four-star ownership. These guys have proven over time that they win and they pursue winning….I think everyone around them understands the Sox without ‘X’ are So-So.”
While puns are part and parcel of the Boras experience, his agency’s general policy against letting a player’s former team make a so-called final offer is also notable in regards to Boston’s chances. “We’re not the matching kind. We let teams know that they have to assert,” Boras said. “We don’t ever hold back from reaching an agreement with any team and certainly we don’t give market preference to anyone. Otherwise, I think the free agent right would be dampened if you did.”
It remains unclear if re-signing Bogaerts is still a realistic proposition for the Red Sox, and many of the team’s actions over the last year (i.e. the signing of Trevor Story, or a low extension offer to Bogaerts last spring) would seem to suggest that the Sox are preparing for a future without Bogaerts on the roster. Another hint could be Boston’s interest in Kolten Wong, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that the Sox had some talks with the Brewers before Wong was dealt to the Mariners.
A source tells Speier that if the Red Sox had traded for Wong, “it 100 percent would not have taken [them] out of the market” to re-sign Bogaerts. The Sox would have hypothetically used Bogaerts, Story, and Wong in the middle infield mix, or possibly even flipped Wong to another team in a trade if Bogaerts had indeed been re-signed. While Wong seems overqualified for such a part-time role, “the Sox want to explore opportunities to add high-end depth” after injuries hampered the position-player mix in 2022.
If Bogaerts’ future in Boston is still up in the air, another familiar face might be a possibility for the team, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) reports that the Red Sox were meeting today with Christian Vazquez‘s agents. Cotillo did note that this meeting might not directly involve Vazquez, as MDR Sports Management also represents several other players, including free agent catchers Robinson Chirinos and Roberto Perez.
Reese McGuire and Connor Wong are Boston’s incumbent catchers heading into the 2023 season, with prospect Ronaldo Hernandez and recent waiver claim Caleb Hamilton also in the mix. It would seem like the Sox are at least exploring the market for more help behind the plate, given how Boston has been mentioned as one of the many teams with trade interest in the Athletics’ Sean Murphy. However, Cotillo reports that there is “nothing going on” between the Red Sox and the top catcher on the free agent market, Willson Contreras.
Andrew Heaney was also on Boston’s radar this offseason, and Cotillo tweets that the Sox were one of the many teams who made the left-hander a contract offer. The Red Sox fell short, however, as Heaney opted to sign with the Rangers for two years and $25MM in guaranteed money.
A’s Acquire Chad Smith From Rockies
The A’s have acquired righty Chad Smith from the Rockies, the team announced. Pitching prospect Jeff Criswell heads to Colorado in return. The A’s 40-man roster count is up to 38, while Colorado’s tally drops to 38.
Smith made his big league debut this past season. He was called upon 15 times in relief by Colorado skipper Bud Black, tossing 18 innings. Smith allowed 15 runs in that limited work. He had a slightly above-average 27.1% strikeout rate and a solid 11.6% swinging strike percentage, averaging 95.6 MPH on his sinker. Yet throwing strikes proved problematic, as he walked an untenable 17.6% of batters faced.
Originally a Marlins draftee, Smith has played parts of six seasons in the minors since coming out of Ole Miss in 2016. He’d spent the past two years at the upper levels of the Colorado organization, posting strong numbers for Triple-A Albuquerque in 2022. Smith worked to a 3.09 ERA in 35 innings for the Isotopes — a strong achievement in one of the more hitter-friendly environments in pro ball. He fanned over 29% of opponents while inducing ground-balls at a massive 60% clip in that time. Smith’s 8.1% walk rate there was solid, but he’s battled control problems in the minors earlier in his career.
The 27-year-old has less than one year of major league service time, and he still has two minor league options remaining. He’ll give the A’s an affordable depth option who could factor into the middle innings and/or pitch for Triple-A Las Vegas if he holds his spot on the 40-man roster.
In return, the Rockies add a 23-year-old arm to the farm system. Criswell was Oakland’s second-round draft choice in 2020 after three seasons at the University of Michigan. The right-hander briefly made it to Triple-A this past season, although he spent more of the year at High-A and in Double-A. Over three levels, he worked 118 1/3 innings of 4.03 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 23.8% clip against a 9% walk rate. The 6’4″ hurler was ranked the #16 prospect in a relatively shallow Oakland farm system by Baseball America midseason; he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of next season if not added to the 40-man roster before then.
No Decision Yet On Aaron Judge
4:35pm: Giants CEO Larry Baer says there’s currently “nothing to report” on the Judge situation (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post).
4:28pm: Heyman now says the Giants haven’t heard a decision on Judge (on Twitter). Andy Martino of SNY tweeted that as of 4:22pm CST, the Yankees were not informed they were out of the running.
4:26pm: Defending AL MVP Aaron Judge “appears headed” to the Giants, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. San Francisco has reportedly offered Judge a deal in the $360MM range. To this point, however, it appears at least the Yankees still remain in the mix.
Wolfe: Senga Has Received Five-Plus Year Offers
Star Japanese hurler Kodai Senga is one of the most intriguing entrants on this offseason’s free agent market. The right-hander is arguably the second-best pitcher remaining behind Carlos Rodón, and he’s already been tied to almost a third of the league in various reports.
Reflecting that wide interest, Senga’s agent Joel Wolfe told reporters at the Winter Meetings this afternoon his client has been offered deals of five and six years (via Kyle Glaser of Baseball America). Predictably, Wolfe didn’t divulge salary figures but suggested Senga’s prioritizing the opportunity to join a win-now club. Earlier in the offseason, Wolfe told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago the right-hander was hoping to land in a big market.
There’s certainly a risk in committing five or six seasons to a pitcher without any track record against big league hitters. At the same time, it’s not hard to understand how the bidding has apparently worked its way to that level. Senga has a fantastic track record at the highest level in Japan, working to a 2.59 ERA in parts of 11 NPB seasons. He’s coming off 144 frames of 1.94 ERA ball, striking out an above-average 27.5% of opponents. He walked batters at an average 8.6% clip.
According to scouting reports, Senga has a fastball that sits in the mid-upper 90’s and an excellent splitter that serves as his top secondary offering. Evaluators have raised some concerns about his breaking ball and the consistency of his strike-throwing effectiveness, but he bolsters a high-octane top two pitches and has a long track record of success at NPB’s highest level. Headed into his age-30 season, he’ll step right into an MLB rotation, with his signing team surely at least anticipating mid-rotation caliber production.
The starting pitching market has picked up in recent days, with Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Zach Eflin and Andrew Heaney all coming off the board on multi-year deals. Beyond Rodón, Senga leads a group with Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon as the next tier of free agent starters. Senga is the youngest of that group and figures to land the longest deal; it’s quite possible he’ll secure the largest guarantee as a result, even if his annual salaries may check in a bit below those of Bassitt and Eovaldi.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted Senga to land a five-year, $75MM contract. He’s a true international free agent, so a signing team won’t owe any compensation to his former NPB club, the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres, Mets, Giants, Yankees and Mariners are among the teams that have been linked to him this offseason. Wolfe told reporters there are currently between a half-dozen and a dozen teams still involved in the market (via Glaser).
Diamondbacks Interested In Sean Murphy
The Diamondbacks are the latest team linked to A’s catcher Sean Murphy, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the D’Backs and Athletics have had some talks about Murphy’s availability.
Back in October, Arizona general manager Mike Hazen suggested that catcher might be a target area for the D’Backs this winter, as part of the team’s broader plans to improve its offense. Free agent Christian Vazquez is another backstop who has reportedly drawn from interest from the desert, while the D’Backs also made a lower-level depth move in claiming Ali Sanchez off waivers.
As Piecoro notes, the Diamondbacks have a starting catcher already in place in Carson Kelly. However, Kelly has hit a modest .231/.318/.405 over his 1207 plate appearances and four seasons in Arizona, with a lot of that offense coming back in 2019. Most recently, Kelly hasn’t really been able to get on track at the plate since suffering a wrist fracture in June 2021.
With Daulton Varsho moving from “catcher of the future” to outfielder of the Diamondbacks’ present, the catching depth is suddenly a little thin in Arizona, and acquiring Murphy would soundly resolve that issue. The former All-Star is a solid offensive and defensive performer, and is under team control through the 2025 season. Since the Athletics are firmly in rebuild mode, Murphy has been one of the top trade targets in all of baseball, with essentially every catching-needy team (i.e. the Cardinals, Cubs, White Sox, Guardians, Twins, Rays, Red Sox) all linked to his market. Even the Braves had some interest despite their own catching depth, but they no longer appear to be pursuing Murphy’s services.
This widespread interest has given the A’s plenty of leverage in talks. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Oakland is looking to add Major League players rather than prospects in exchange for Murphy, with these big league-ready players presumably being younger and cost-controlled rather than established veterans.
With this asking price in mind, the Diamondbacks could be a particularly good fit for a Murphy trade. There has been plenty of speculation that the D’Backs might trade from their surplus of young outfielders, and while top prospect Corbin Carroll seems untouchable, any of Varsho, Alek Thomas, or Jake McCarthy could potentially be shopped to Oakland as part of a trade package.
If the D’Backs did land Murphy, they could themselves enter the catching market by shopping Kelly. Teams who miss out on Murphy could still see Kelly as a possible upgrade, and naturally his trade cost would be far less than the Athletics’ asking price for Murphy. Kelly is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and is projected to earn $4.1MM via the arb process in 2023.
Nationals Have Had Discussions With Jordan Lyles
Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said yesterday that the club plans to pursue rotation upgrades and it’s possible they have some self-imposed urgency in that search. Talk Nats reports that Rizzo wants to have a pitcher locked in before the end of the Winter Meetings, which conclude tomorrow. On a related note, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports that the club has had discussions with free agent Jordan Lyles.
The fact that the Nats are interested in starting pitchers is hardly shocking, given the uncertainty they have in that part of their roster. Stephen Strasburg has pitched just over 30 innings over the past three seasons combined and still isn’t sure what he can do in the future. Patrick Corbin still has two seasons remaining on his contract but has seen his ERA climb in four straight years, ending up at 6.31 in 2022. Apart from those two, the other rotation options are limited in experience and have concerns with either their health or performance. Josiah Gray has a 5.17 ERA through 219 1/3 career innings. Cade Cavalli made one MLB start before shoulder inflammation ended his 2022. MacKenzie Gore used to be the top pitching prospect in the sport but lost his command over 2020 and 2021. He got back on track in 2022 but then missed the second half of the season due to elbow inflammation.
Adding a stable veteran like Lyles into the mix would be plenty sensible, as that’s essentially the same role he just played in Baltimore in 2022. The rebuilding O’s had a similarly unclear rotation and signed Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a club option for 2023. Lyles ended up making 32 starts for the club, absorbing 179 innings. His 4.42 ERA and 18.6% strikeout rate weren’t elite, but he limited walks to a 6.7% rate.
Those results are roughly in line with the numbers Lyles, now 32, has put up over his 12-year career. The O’s could have retained him for another season via a club option valued at $11MM but instead opted for the $1MM buyout, returning him to the open market. Most of the win-now teams will be focused on the starters with larger upside, with Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander already off the board and Carlos Rodón seeming to have abundant interest. Back-end options like Lyles could wait around and see if those contenders will circle back to them later in the offseason, but some of them will also get some early interest. The O’s have already signed Kyle Gibson, effectively replacing Lyles as the veteran innings eater on the team. Meanwhile, the Rockies have re-signed José Ureña, the Tigers have added Matt Boyd and the Pirates have added Vince Velasquez. If the Nats like Lyles as their target for the stable vet, it’s possible for a deal to come together quickly.
Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo
The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley. “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.
Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now. To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons. Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling. Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.
Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022. There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.
As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll. Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams. Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.
Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams. That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022. It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.
Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders. A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup. Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market. Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.
Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients. Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.
Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers. Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past. As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.
With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation. The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.