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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks had a respectable second half, but there’s still a notable gap between them and the National League’s postseason contenders. Arizona seems to be on the upswing after a brutal three-year stretch. They’ve broken in a number of promising young players in the past couple years. Supplementing that emerging core with a better bullpen and a reliable starting pitcher will be offseason priorities.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

Total 2023 commitments: $59.975MM
Total future commitments: $149.875MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

  • Davies, Kennedy

It has been a tough few seasons for the Diamondbacks, who followed up consecutive last-place division finishes with the #4 standing in the NL West. They’re obviously not yet a complete roster, but they head into the offseason coming off their most encouraging few months since the end of the 2019 season. A dismal first half buried the D-Backs in the standings yet again, but they’ve played reasonably well coming out of the All-Star Break. They finished two games under .500 in the unofficial second half but outscored opponents by 15 runs since the Break. That was enough for the Diamondbacks to exercise their option on skipper Torey Lovullo, keeping him around for a seventh season.

Underperforming their run differential was a problem all year. Arizona finished with a 74-88 record, but their “expected” record based on their run differential checked in at 77-85. Only four teams (Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers and Twins) underperformed that mark by more, with Arizona’s 17-29 record in one-run contests a major factor. That gets partially at the team’s lack of offense late in close games, which the front office can expect to turn around through some combination of better luck and more high-leverage experience for their number of young hitters. Yet the inability to win close games also hints at the biggest flaw on the roster: the bullpen.

On the heels of their nightmarish 52-win 2021 season, the front office set out to address a relief unit that had allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings. Veterans Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy were brought in via free agency, while the club aggressively leveraged their high waiver priority to cycle through late-game arms (e.g. Kyle Nelson, Paul Fry, Reyes Moronta) who’d shown any kind of promise in the past. Almost nothing worked as planned, and the Snakes again ran out one of the sport’s worst relief groups. Arizona’s bullpen ranked 25th in ERA (4.58), 28th in strikeout/walk rate differential (10.5 percentage points) and tied for the 8th-most blown leads (27).

Fixing the bullpen again has to be an offseason priority. Kennedy had a 5.36 ERA and will be head back to free agency after the team declines its end of a mutual option. Melancon is due $6MM next year, plus a $2MM buyout on a 2024 mutual option. He’ll be back on the roster as a result, but he posted a 4.66 ERA that ranked as his worst mark in a decade. Long one of the game’s more consistent relievers, the 37-year-old is on the downslope of his career and coming off a third consecutive season with a well below-average swinging-strike rate. He’s still serviceable against right-handed batters but ideally wouldn’t enter 2023 locked into a high-leverage or closer role.

A run at another late-career former star closer could be in the cards. Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are all headed to free agency. None of that group is coming off a vintage season. Kimbrel and Jansen have been effective but not their formerly elite selves; Chapman has simply been below-average. Still, there’s little question that each of Kimbrel and Jansen, at least, would be upgrades in the late innings for Arizona. The D-Backs aren’t going to push towards nine figures to land Edwin Díaz, but a one-year salary in the $10MM range for a former star to solidify the ninth inning could be palatable.

Even if the Snakes bring in an established closer, they’ll probably look for another middle-innings arm as well. Adding a right-hander would be ideal, as Lovullo hasn’t had many reliable options from that side. Arizona only has two returning relievers who posted an above-average strikeout rate. One, southpaw Joe Mantiply, broke out with an All-Star season and is a lock to assume a late-innings role next year. The other, right-hander Kevin Ginkel, cleared waivers last winter and only made it back to the big leagues in August. A solid final two months should earn him a spot on next year’s roster, but he shouldn’t be guaranteed high-leverage innings after posting a 6.50 ERA from 2020-21. Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and David Phelps are veteran righties coming off quality seasons and heading to free agency.

There should be financial room for the front office to address the relief corps. Arizona has just under $60MM committed to next season’s books. That doesn’t include arbitration estimates, but it’s not an overwhelming class. Christian Walker, Zac Gallen, Josh Rojas and Daulton Varsho are locks to be tendered contracts, but none is building off a huge platform salary. Walker made $2.6MM this year and will probably see a bump into the $5-6MM range. Gallen, Rojas and Varsho (the latter two of whom are likely to qualify for early arbitration as Super Two players) are arbitration-eligible for the first time. Gallen will likely be capped around the $4MM mark, while Rojas and Varsho will make a couple million dollars each. Keeping backstop Carson Kelly, who’s a potential non-tender candidate but seems likelier to stick around, would tack on another $5MM or so. Even if everyone in that group returns, Arizona’s only looking at roughly $80MM in commitments before building out the roster.

The Diamondbacks entered 2022 with a payroll just under $91MM, and they’ve pushed as high as the $130MM range in the past. Jumping back to franchise-record heights set before the shortened 2020 campaign seems unlikely, since owner Ken Kendrick has curtailed spending over the last two years. Nearing or exceeding $100MM could be viable, though, leaving the front office some opportunity.

Aside from the bullpen, the biggest question mark seems to be the back of the starting staff. Gallen has cemented himself as one of the sport’s elite arms, and he’ll front next year’s rotation. Behind him is Merrill Kelly, who posted a 3.37 ERA over 33 starts after signing a two-year extension during Spring Training. Kelly may not repeat quite that level of effectiveness next year, but he’s at least a solid mid-rotation arm. Were he slated to hit free agency this winter, the right-hander would certainly have topped the $18MM he received from the D-Backs in April. Arizona bet on Kelly to bounce back from a somewhat disappointing 4.44 ERA last season, and he’s rewarded the organization’s faith.

The final three spots in the rotation are open questions. Madison Bumgarner probably gets another crack thanks to his contract. Arizona’s five-year, $85MM free agent investment during the 2019-20 offseason has proven disastrous, with Bumgarner posting a 4.67 ERA or worse in the first three seasons of the deal. His days as an ace and postseason hero for the Giants are distant in the rearview, and his production in the desert has been that of a 5th/6th depth starter rather than the rotation stabilizer the club envisioned.

While Arizona would certainly welcome the opportunity to shed the final two years and $37MM on Bumgarner’s deal, it’s hard to see that happening. Perhaps the front office can orchestrate a swap of unfavorable contracts, but Bumgarner’s limited no-trade clause further complicates an already unlikely trade scenario. The far likelier outcome is he’ll remain on the roster and in the rotation heading into next season.

The remaining spots could give some of the club’s younger arms an opportunity to take steps forward. Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Tommy Henry all debuted this year and could compete for rotation spots in Spring Training. Nelson and Jameson are both well-regarded prospects who’ve impressed in their limited big league action. Each had a tougher time in an extremely hitter-friendly Triple-A environment, and their respective MLB bodies of work aren’t yet robust enough the D-Backs will lock either into an Opening Day rotation job. They’ve at least put themselves on the radar, reducing the need to give starts to the likes of Humberto Castellanos (who’ll miss most of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Tyler Gilbert.

Arizona’s farm system is rife with upper-level arms, and youngsters like Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston could factor into the mix as well. Pfaadt was excellent in ten Triple-A starts and could compete for a big league job out of camp. Walston probably starts next year in Triple-A but may earn a midseason look.

While the organization and its fanbase is certainly excited about the long-term potential of most of those arms, the Snakes still look likely to seek out shorter-term rotation fits this winter. Not all of Nelson, Jameson, Pfaadt and Walston will develop into mid-rotation caliber starters. Injuries and simple underperformance will set back some of that group. Even if two of the four hit the ground running and join Gallen and Kelly in the rotation, an outside addition or two could help manage the younger pitchers’ innings, safeguard against injury and perhaps eventually bump Bumgarner from the starting five.

It’d be a surprise to see Arizona make a long-term free agent investment considering the number of upper minors arms they have. It’s more likely they’d dip into the lower-tiers of free agency to add a stable back-end starter, similar to last winter’s signing of Zach Davies. Hurlers like Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles (if the Orioles buy out his club option), Johnny Cueto or Michael Lorenzen could fit the bill.

If the D-Backs wanted to act more divisively in pursuit of an upgrade, packaging some of their young talent together for an impact trade piece shouldn’t be out of the question. Arizona has drafted highly in recent years, adding high-end prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones to an already solid system. Even if those two are off limits in discussions, the Snakes’ upper level surplus of arms and outfielders (more on that in a bit) could allow them to push in their chips this winter. The Marlins are expected to make Pablo López available for offensive help. The Astros could deal from their rotation surplus, and Arizona pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar with the likes of Luis Garcia and José Urquidy from his time in Houston. Those are speculative possibilities, but Arizona’s at least a dark-horse candidate for that kind of trade.

Such a move wouldn’t have to be limited to the rotation, of course. Much of the D-Backs’ position player group is taking shape internally, but there’s still a chance to make a run at a good player with multiple seasons of club control. The A’s are widely expected to shop catcher Sean Murphy, who has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. If the D-Backs do part with Carson Kelly after a second straight below-average season, a pursuit of Murphy makes sense. He’s an immense offensive upgrade over Kelly, and his excellent defensive reputation would dovetail nicely with the Diamondbacks’ upcoming pitching prospects.

If Arizona eschews external catching additions and brings Kelly back, he’d be in line for the lion’s share of playing time. José Herrera didn’t lay claim to the backup job, so a low-cost veteran complement in free agency makes sense. The right side of the infield is set with Walker and Ketel Marte. Arizona stuck with Walker after a rough 2021 campaign. They were rewarded with a 36-homer showing, paired with Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The D-Backs were open to offers on Walker at the trade deadline but didn’t move him. They’ll probably field some calls this winter, but it’ll tough for other teams to pry away his final two seasons of arbitration control.

Marte has been a frequent target in trade rumors for years, but Arizona committed to him as a franchise player with a five-year extension this spring. He didn’t have a great 2022 campaign, hitting .240/.321/.407 over 558 plate appearances with below-average defense at second base. Pedestrian season aside, Marte still brings a rare combination of contact skills and plus exit velocities. At some point down the line, the front office may think about reducing his time in the middle infield given his defensive limitations, but he’ll continue to play the majority of his reps at the keystone in 2023.

The left side of the infield is far less settled. Third base has been a revolving door for the past couple seasons. Arizona acquired Emmanuel Rivera from the Royals for Luke Weaver at the trade deadline and gave him a fair bit of run in the second half. Rivera hit .227/.304/.424 with plus defensive marks and will be in the mix at third, but he may be a better fit in a utility capacity.

That’s also true of Rojas, who split his time between second and third base and designated hitter. He’s a solid left-handed bat with excellent plate discipline and good bat-to-ball skills. Rojas is a productive hitter, but he’s not a great defender anywhere. Rather than pencil him in as an everyday third baseman, the D-Backs are likelier to continue to deploy him as a multi-positional option off the bench, living with poor defense at various positions to plug him into the lineup on a more or less everyday basis.

Between Rivera and Rojas, the Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to consider third base a true position of need. With a weak free agent class there, they may not end up addressing it at all. Still, neither Rivera nor Rojas absolutely forecloses the possibility of an upgrade, and the front office figures to at least gauge the trade and non-tender markets for potential fits.

Shortstop, meanwhile, looks like the biggest position player hole on the depth chart. Defensive stalwart Nick Ahmed is under contract for more than $10MM next season, but he only played in 17 games this year before undergoing shoulder surgery. Ahmed played more frequently in 2021 but didn’t hit well. The shoulder issues could’ve played a role in that subpar production, but he’s been a below-average offensive player in every season of his career. With Ahmed out, Arizona gave extended run to rookie Geraldo Perdomo. The 22-year-old looked overmatched, posting a .195/.285/.262 mark across 500 plate appearances.

Relying on Ahmed and Perdomo again would be suboptimal, although it’s fair to wonder if the front office will be able to find an upgrade. A run at any of the top four free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson) isn’t likely to be in the cards for financial reasons. There’s a notable drop-off to Elvis Andrus and José Iglesias beyond that group. Turning to the trade market, Amed Rosario is among the names who could be made available, as the Guardians thread a tight financial needle.

In contrast to shortstop, the D-Backs enter the offseason with an arguable surplus of outfield talent. Top prospect Corbin Carroll reached the majors in late August and hit the ground running. He’ll play every day in either left or center field, while Varsho will be a regular at another outfield spot. Formerly a catcher/outfielder hybrid, Varsho seems to have landed full-time in the grass at this stage of his career. That’s in large part because defensive metrics have viewed him as an elite gloveman in right field (and a plus in center).

Meanwhile, second-year player Jake McCarthy broke out with a .283/.342/.427 showing with 23 stolen bases over 354 plate appearances this season. McCarthy was never the caliber of prospect Carroll or Varsho were, but he looks deserving of everyday run himself. A slightly below-average exit velocity and contact rate raise some questions about how sustainable this year’s performance may be, but he’s capable of covering all three outfield spots and has performed against left-handed and right-handed pitchers alike. At the very least, he looks like a high-end fourth outfielder, and he’s earned an opportunity to demonstrate he’s more than that.

Carroll, Varsho and McCarthy give the Snakes a trio of potential everyday outfielders, all of whom can cover center field. That’s before considering the presence of another recent top prospect, Alek Thomas. Thomas is the one Arizona outfielder who didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, posting a .231/.275/.344 line across 411 plate appearances. He’s raked throughout his time in the minors, though, and he’s yet to turn 23. A gifted defensive center fielder with strong contact skills, Thomas still looks like a possible everyday player.

Arizona could open the season with a McCarthy – Carroll – Varsho outfield while sending Thomas back to Triple-A. Yet the enviable depth could also allow them to explore ways to bolster other areas of the roster via trade. Dealing someone from that group (McCarthy or Thomas, most likely) as part of a package for a controllable starting pitcher or shortstop won’t be off the table. This front office pulled a similarly fascinating trade a few years ago, sending then-prospect Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Miami for Gallen, suggesting they’re at least open to that kind of unconventional swap.

For a team coming off a third straight sub-.500 season, the Diamondbacks could be in for a sneakily fascinating winter. They’ve seen a young core begin to blossom in the majors. General manager Mike Hazen and his staff should have chances to package some of that upper level talent to balance out the roster. With some financial leeway also in place, Arizona could be more aggressive than many might anticipate as they work to establish themselves as legitimate playoff contenders heading into 2023.

Carlos Correa On Opt-Out Clause, Future With Twins

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Since the moment Carlos Correa signed a surprising, short-term and opt-out laden deal with the Twins, it’s appeared all but inevitable that he’d trigger the first opt-out in his contract and return to free agency this winter. A huge finish at the plate likely only made Correa’s decision easier, and while the 28-year-old former All-Star hinted that he will indeed opt out when speaking to the Twins beat yesterday, he also voiced a strong desire to return to the Twins and continue playing under manager Rocco Baldelli (Twitter thread via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com).

“…I talked about marriage in terms of building a long-term relationship [with the team], and then we go from there,” Correa said. “But we all know, you know the game enough to know what my decision is going to be like.”

Correa said early in the season that he and his wife immediately felt at home in the Twin Cities. He doubled down on the comments yesterday, stating his love for the organization and the team, adding that his family’s happiness is something he will “take dearly into consideration” as he charts his course. He added that he plans to meet with the team soon and repeated a desire to “get into serious conversations” with the Twins regarding a longer-term deal than the one to which he’s currently signed. If he made the surprising decision to forgo his opt-out, he’d still be signed for another two years and $70.2MM — with the ability to  opt out again next winter.

While Baldelli has become a lightning rod for criticism among Twins fans on the heels of a second straight disappointing season, Correa indicated that the relationship he’s forged with his manager has been a key factor in his happiness this season.

“He’s been an open book with me since day one,” Correa said of Baldelli. “He’s been honest. He’s been trustworthy. He’s been a friend. There’s nothing more you want from a manager than what Rocco is to us here.”

Obviously, it’s in Correa’s best interest to say all the right things and to express interest in a long-term deal. There’s no sense in any pending free agent burning any type of bridge or casting doubt about his willingness to return to his current setting; the greater the number of potential landing spots, the greater the competition in free agency, after all. Still, Correa could also have simply declined to comment on the opt-out or on his relationship with the club, so it’s of at least mild note that he perhaps foreshadowed his decision and expressed ostensibly earnest desire to stay put in Minnesota.

Correa stumbled out of the gates early in the season, hitting just .167/.254/.250 through his first 16 games and 67 plate appearances. From that point forth, he found his stroke at the plate and looked every bit like the star the Twins hoped to be acquiring, batting .307/.380/.496 (152 wRC+) with a 10.3% walk rate and 18.9% strikeout rate through his final 523 plate appearances.

Defensive metrics soured on Correa’s work at shortstop following last year’s Platinum Glove showing, but both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) still pegged him as an above-average shortstop. Statcast did grade him negatively (two runs below average) for the first time since his rookie season. Correa made just eight errors this year (six of the throwing variety).

The end result was a strong all-around campaign: a .291/.366/.467 batting line (140 wRC+), 22 home runs, 24 doubles and anywhere from passable to above-average defense at shortstop. Baseball-Reference pegged Correa’s first and perhaps only Twins season at 5.4 wins above replacement; FanGraphs valued him at 4.4 WAR.

The question for both the Twins and for Correa now becomes one of finding a middle ground. Correa hit the market a year ago fresh off an even stronger season than his 2022 effort and still struggled to find the $330MM+ deal he was rumored to be seeking. Now a year older and coming off a strong but still lesser season, it’s hard to imagine that type of contract materializing — particularly with another excellent set of fellow shortstops on the market. A year ago, Correa was joined by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Baez in free agency. This time around, it’s Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson all serving as competition.

From a payroll vantage point, the Twins can very clearly handle a long-term commitment to Correa. Assuming he opts out and Sonny Gray’s 2023 option is exercised — both of which are virtual locks — Minnesota will have about $53.25MM on the 2023 books. By 2024, the only notable long-term guarantee on the ledger is Byron Buxton’s seven-year contract, and his annual base salary clocks in just north of $15MM. If the team wants to build around the Nos. 1 and 2 picks from the 2012 draft, the resources are certainly there. The Twins carried a payroll of more than $142MM this season.

Whether that’s a risk worth taking will be a question for the front office and for ownership, of course. The Twins have more money coming off the books than all but a handful of MLB clubs this winter, but they also have needs in the rotation, the bullpen and at several spots in the lineup. They also have another former No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, as a potential heir to Correa at shortstop, although Lewis tore his right ACL (while playing the outfield) in just the 12th game of an impressive MLB debut. It’s the second straight season with a season-ending right ACL tear for the now 23-year-old Lewis, and it remains unclear whether that pair of surgeries to repair the same ligament impact the team’s thoughts on him as a potential shortstop. His outlook is but one of many layers to a complex and franchise-altering decision the Twins will face with Correa’s opt-out looming.

Yankees Outright Chi Chi Gonzalez

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Oct. 6: Gonzalez cleared outright waivers and was assigned to the roster in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, per a team announcement. He can reject the assignment to become a free agent right now or can otherwise wait and become a free agent at season’s end (as is the right of any outrighted player with three-plus years of service).

Oct. 3: The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Miguel Castro from the 60-day injured list and designated fellow righty Chi Chi Gonzalez for assignment in order to open space on the roster.

The Yanks were the third team of the season for the 30-year-old Gonzalez, who allowed one run through 4 2/3 innings in a spot start against the Orioles just yesterday. He’s also spent time with the Twins and Brewers in 2022, combining for 23 innings of 5.87 ERA ball with a 15-to-7 K/BB ratio.

Selected by the Rangers with the No. 23 overall pick back in 2013, Gonzalez ranked as one of Texas’ top minor league arms for a few years but never cemented himself as a regular contributor in either the rotation or the bullpen there. His 3.90 ERA through 67 innings as a rookie in 2015 looked promising on the surface, but Gonzalez walked more hitters (32) than he struck out (30) that season. He’s tossed 217 1/3 frames for five teams since that time, pitching to a collective 6.20 ERA along the way.

Struggles in the Majors notwithstanding, Gonzalez has a decent Triple-A track record and has been solid or better there in three of four seasons pitching at that level. That includes the current campaign, where he’s totaled 80 1/3 innings with a 4.03 ERA, a 20.8% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate. The Yankees will place him on outright waivers or release waivers in the next couple days, and assuming he clears, Gonzalez will be able to become a free agent either upon clearing waivers or at season’s end.

Castro, 27, has been on the injured list twice this season due to a shoulder strain. In 27 innings when healthy, he’s posted a 4.00 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 46.6% ground-ball rate. Despite the shoulder troubles, Castro’s sinker remains just as lively as it was with the crosstown Mets in 2021, averaging a blistering 97.9 mph this season.

If he’s healthy, Castro will give the Yanks an experienced option to consider for the postseason as he looks to showcase himself in advance of his first trip to free agency this winter. Command has long been an issue for the hard-throwing righty, but he has a 3.93 ERA over his past 348 big league innings, has considerably upped his strikeout rate since 2020 (26.9%) and typically keeps nearly half the batted balls against him on the ground (career 48.9%).

Royals Fire Manager Mike Matheny

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The Royals’ organizational shake-up continues. Shortly after wrapping up a 69-93 season, Kansas City announced that manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Cal Eldred will not return in 2023. The Royals had exercised a 2023 club option on Matheny’s services in Spring Training, but he’ll be relieved of his duties a season early.

The news comes a few weeks after the Royals made a change atop the front office. President of baseball operations Dayton Moore was dismissed in late September, with general manager J.J. Picollo tasked to lead baseball operations. Picollo’s first major decision is to make a leadership change in the clubhouse, and the Royals will now turn their attention towards finding a new skipper.

Matheny’s dismissal closes the books on his three-year managerial tenure. Originally brought to the K.C. organization over the 2018-19 offseason as a special assistant, Matheny was almost immediately rumored as a likely successor to then-manager Ned Yost. When Yost stepped aside at the end of the 2019 season, the Royals indeed tabbed Matheny to return to the top of the dugout steps. The former big league catcher had spent six-plus years managing the Cardinals between 2012-18, and he obviously impressed the Royals front office during his season as a special assistant.

It wasn’t a particularly imposing roster, with Matheny taking over as the team was firmly amidst a rebuild. Kansas City had lost over 100 games in each of the preceding two years, so it wasn’t especially surprising they stumbled to a 26-34 mark during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. The following offseason, the Royals added Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi and Mike Minor in an effort to be more competitive. They were, to some extent, finishing with a 74-88 record that came with their highest win percentage (45.7%) since 2017.

Still, the improvements weren’t enough to make the Royals full-fledged contenders. After a 15-7 showing in April, they finished .500 or below in every ensuing month. Kansas City was surprisingly quiet last winter. The Royals reunited with Zack Greinke on a $13MM contract and shipped out the underperforming Minor for reliever Amir Garrett. Otherwise, Kansas City was counting on internal improvements paired with the fruits of a burgeoning farm system to get back above .500 for the first time since winning the World Series in 2015.

The Royals carried top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. on the Opening Day roster. Within a couple months, MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino would join him. All three have gotten off to solid starts, with Witt and Pasquantino looking like above-average regulars from the outset. The team’s overall performance, though, went in the wrong direction. They won nine fewer games than they had in 2021, finishing with the fifth-worst record in the majors. Benintendi and longtime franchise cornerstone Whit Merrifield were traded away midseason.

Among the biggest reasons for the lack of progress was a starting rotation that ranked 26th in the majors with a 4.72 ERA. Of the seven K.C. starters to top 20 innings, five had an ERA of 4.93 or higher. That’s particularly disheartening considering the volume of talented young arms the Royals have seen reach the majors in recent seasons. Kansas City invested plenty of draft capital in bolstering their pitching pipeline, including using four of the top 40 overall selections in 2018 on college arms. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic were all brought in that year, but only Singer has taken the developmental strides the club had envisioned.

After surprisingly beginning the year in the bullpen, Singer was quickly sent to Triple-A to stretch back out as a starter. After reassuming a rotation role in mid-May, the righty emerged as the Royals most productive arm. He made 24 starts and worked to a 3.11 ERA with an above-average 24.2% strikeout rate and a quality 48.5% ground-ball mark. Singer still struggled to turn over lineups three times, but he dominated opponents his first two times through an order. While it may not have been a perfect campaign, Singer’s 2022 season undoubtedly qualified as a success.

Unfortunately for the Royals, none of his peers took a similar step forward. None of Bubic, Lynch or Jon Heasley posted an ERA below 5.00, and all three had well below-average strikeout rates. Carlos Hernández was one of the league’s worst pitchers in a season-opening rotation look and eventually found himself in the bullpen. Kowar has been hit hard during his limited MLB stints over the past two seasons and had a 6.16 ERA through 20 Triple-A starts this year. Grounder specialist Brad Keller has taken a massive step back over the past couple years and could be non-tendered this offseason. It’s to the Royals’ credit that Keller, selected out of the Diamondbacks organization in the 2017-18 Rule 5 draft, ever emerged as a productive starter in the first place. Still, his regression paired with the lack of progress from many of Kansas City’s most promising arms will have to be an area of focus for Picollo and his front office group.

The first move in that arena comes on the coaching staff. In addition to Matheny, the Royals move on from Eldred after five seasons as pitching coach. First hired to join Yost’s staff going into 2018, the former MLB right-hander remained in the role once Matheny took over two years later. Kansas City will now look for a new voice to work with the big league arms, and Andy McCullough of the Athletic reports the organization is likely to follow with changes to its pitching infrastructure in the player development department.

It’ll obviously be a significant winter for the Royals, who now have the American League’s second-longest active postseason drought. The team’s collection of high-upside rookie position players bolsters an increasingly promising lineup. Kansas City could look for upgrades in the corner outfield and at third base, but the bigger area of concern seems likely to be the pitching staff. The Royals will have to go outside the organization to add at least one or two starters (particularly if Greinke doesn’t return in free agency), and they’ll obviously hope for better results from the likes of Lynch and Bubic in 2023 and beyond.

Kansas City becomes the sixth MLB team without a permanent manager in place. The Blue Jays and Phillies have interim skippers in John Schneider and Rob Thomson, respectively. Those teams qualified for the postseason. The Rangers turned to Tony Beasley in an interim capacity after dismissing Chris Woodward, while the White Sox went with Miguel Cairo once Tony La Russa stepped aside due to health concerns. The Marlins, meanwhile, have already announced Don Mattingly won’t return as skipper next season. There’ll be a fair bit of turnover on the managerial front around the league, although the Angels solidified their situation this afternoon by signing Phil Nevin to a one-year deal and removing the interim tag from his title.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tommy Boggs Passes Away

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Former major league pitcher Tommy Boggs passed away today after a battle with cancer, according to an announcement from Concordia University. Boggs, who’d been the head baseball coach at Concordia since 2009, was 66 years old.

The second overall pick of the 1974 draft, the right-hander joined the Rangers organization out of an Austin high school. Two years later, he was in the big leagues, debuting in July 1976 a few months shy of his 21st birthday. He made 13 starts for Texas as a rookie, pitching to a 3.49 ERA over 90 1/3 frames. He made just six MLB starts the following year, spending most of the season in Triple-A. Boggs was dealt to the Braves at the end of that year, part of a four-team blockbuster that sent Bert Blyleven from Texas to the Pirates.

Boggs would spend the next six seasons in Atlanta. After bouncing between the majors and Triple-A for the first two years, he carved out a permanent rotation role between 1980-81. Boggs had the best year of his career in 1980, making 32 appearances and working to a 3.42 ERA through 192 1/3 frames. He posted a 4.10 mark over 25 outings the following season before transitioning back into a depth role. Boggs stayed in Atlanta until 1983, then returned to the Rangers organization. After a year in the minors, he closed out his playing career with four relief appearances for Texas in ’85.

Altogether, Boggs played parts of nine MLB seasons. He posted a 4.22 ERA over 584 innings, winning 20 games and striking out 278 batters. He started 94 of his 114 big league outings.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Boggs’ family, friends, loved ones, former teammates and the number of players he coached at Concordia.

2023 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

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The 2022 regular season is officially wrapped up, with the Mets beating the Nationals in the second game of a doubleheader to close out the year. 18 teams now formally turn their attention to 2023, while the postseason will get underway on Friday.

With the standings set for the league’s non-playoff teams, there’s some more clarity about next year’s amateur draft order. Unlike in previous seasons, where the draft order was fixed in the inverse of the prior year’s standings, the 2023 draft will be subject to a lottery. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the top selections. All 18 non-playoff teams are technically in the running for any of the top six picks, albeit with increasingly diminished odds for the clubs with better records. If two teams have the same record, the club with the worse record in the preceding season gets the higher odds.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).

Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline and Carlos Collazo of Baseball America each relayed the odds for the first overall pick in next season’s draft.

  1. Nationals (55-107): 16.5%
  2. Athletics (60-102): 16.5%
  3. Pirates (62-100, 61-101 in ’21): 16.5%
  4. Reds (62-100, 83-79 in ’21): 13.25%
  5. Royals (65-97): 10%
  6. Tigers (66-96): 7.5%
  7. Rangers (68-94, 60-102 in ’21): 5.5%
  8. Rockies (68-94, 74-87 in ’21): 3.9%
  9. Marlins (69-93): 2.7%
  10. Angels (73-89): 1.8%
  11. Diamondbacks (74-88, 52-110 in ’21): 1.4%
  12. Cubs (74-88, 71-91 in ’21): 1.1%
  13. Twins (78-84, 73-89 in ’21): 0.9%
  14. Red Sox (78-84, 92-70 in ’21): 0.76%
  15. White Sox (81-81, 93-69 in ’21): 0.62%
  16. Giants (81-81, 107-55 in ’21): 0.48%
  17. Orioles (83-79): 0.36%
  18. Brewers (86-76): 0.23%

The date of the draft lottery has not been formally announced, but Mayo notes it’s expected to take place during the Winter Meetings. Joe Doyle of Prospects Live first reported last month that it’ll be run at the Winter Meetings on December 6.

After the first six selections are drawn, the remainder of the first round will run in inverse order of the standings among the teams not awarded a lottery pick. The Nationals will therefore pick no later than 7th, the A’s will pick no later than 8th, and so on. A team with a record outside the bottom six would only move up if drawn into the top six. The Brewers, for instance, will either win a pick between 1st and 6th or pick 18th; there is no scenario in which Milwaukee picks between 7th and 17th. If the Orioles don’t win a lottery pick, they’ll either pick 17th or 18th (only moving to 18th if Milwaukee is drawn into the top six).

While the process for the non-playoff teams is relatively straightforward, the ordering for the teams that qualify for the postseason is more complex, Mayo and Collazo report. The playoff teams will first be arranged by the round in which they’re eliminated — teams that lose in the Wild Card Round awarded higher picks than those that lose in the Division Series, teams that lose in the DS before clubs eliminated in the Championship Series, etc.

Within each group of eliminated clubs, teams are first sorted by revenue sharing status. Collazo reports that revenue sharing recipients will receive higher priority over non revenue sharing-recipients. Thus, the loser of the Rays – Guardians Wild Card series (both teams are revenue sharing recipients) would receive a higher selection than the loser of the Cardinals – Phillies series (neither team receives revenue sharing). Teams eliminated in the same round with the same revenue sharing status are then ordered by their reverse regular season win percentage.

While it won’t affect the order of the 2023 draft, the new CBA also introduced restrictions on teams qualifying for the lottery in consecutive seasons. Clubs that don’t receive revenue sharing are ineligible to earn a lottery pick in consecutive years. Teams that do receive revenue sharing aren’t permitted to receive a lottery pick for more than two straight years.

It looks as if the draft order will be settled two months from now, but there’s obviously plenty of uncertainty as to which players will be at the top of the class. Baseball America updated its preliminary top 100 draft prospects last month, slotting LSU right fielder Dylan Crews, Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez among the most talented prospects. There’ll obviously be plenty of movement once the amateur baseball circuit kicks back off next winter and spring.

Nelson Cruz To Undergo Eye Surgery

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Nationals slugger Nelson Cruz tells Jessica Camerato of MLB.com that he will undergo surgery on his left eye at the end of October due to some inflammation that is blocking his vision (Twitter links). He expects to resume baseball activities in 6-8 weeks, which should give him plenty of time to be ready for Spring Training.

“Vision is everything for hitters,” Cruz says. “But the good thing is, it can be fixed.” Going into more detail, he says: “You can only see clearly with the right eye. When I close this one, it’s not clear. I need my eyes to be sharp, to be able to see the ball, especially see spins.” Cruz then adds that he estimates the issue has been affecting him for the past year and a half, though it got worse recently.

The estimated timeline that Cruz provides is an interesting one, as that aligns with his downturn at the plate. He was an above-average hitter for 14 straight years from 2008 to 2021, though he tailed off in the second half of last year. He began the year with the Twins and hit .294/.370/.537 for a wRC+ of 142. In July, he was traded to the Rays for Joe Ryan, Drew Strotman and Calvin Faucher. Unfortunately for Tampa, Cruz’s production fell off almost immediately and he ended up hitting .226/.283/.442 as a Ray for a wRC+ of 95.

Despite that sluggish finish to the season, the rebuilding Nationals gave Cruz a one-year, $15MM deal plus a mutual option. The Nats didn’t really have designs on competing but likely hoped for Cruz to act as a mentor to younger players and then play well enough to be flipped for prospects midseason. Leading up to the trade deadline, there were some rumors that the Mets were interested, but a deal for Cruz never came together, likely due to his subpar performance this year. His batting line for the season is .234/.313/.337 for a wRC+ of 85.

Going into the offseason, Cruz is destined for the open market since mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides. This news about his eye will make his free agency an interesting case to watch. On the one hand, he is now 42 years old and has been below-average at the plate for over a year. He’s strictly a designated hitter at this point, meaning that he holds no value for teams if he can’t produce at the plate. However, if it’s true that the eye issue was holding him back, it’s possible that he could return to being a feared slugger like he was in the first few months of last season. He’ll have the next few months to find out which clubs are willing to take a chance on him.

Padres Place Mike Clevinger On IL Due To Illness

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The Padres announced that they have placed right-hander Mike Clevinger on the injured list due to illness. Fellow righty Nabil Crismatt was recalled in a corresponding move.

Clevinger, 31, was set to start the final game of the season but was scratched due to this illness. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the team is still awaiting the results of a COVID test and also relays that Clevinger has been dealing with some knee soreness lately. He missed time earlier this year due to a knee sprain.

The timing of the ailment is significant, as the Padres have clinched a playoff spot and will begin a best-of-three Wild Card series against the Mets on Friday. Clevinger likely wouldn’t have earned a start in that series, with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove the probables for those three contests. However, if the Friars can survive into the NLDS and beyond, they will likely need a fourth starter at some point. If Clevinger is not 100%, it’s possible that Sean Manaea might get the gig instead.

Clevinger missed all of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and has returned to throw 114 1/3 innings here in 2022. He has a 4.33 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 35.2% ground ball rate. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

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