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Mets Place Dominic Smith On Injured List

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The Mets placed first baseman Dominic Smith on the 10-day injured list due to a right ankle sprain, per a team announcement. The move is retroactive to July 17, so Smith will be able to return by the middle of next week, in a best-case scenario.

Smith’s placement on the IL comes with less than two weeks remaining before the Aug. 2 trade deadline. He’s been an obvious change-of-scenery candidate for much of the season and has reportedly been the subject of conversations with both the Cubs and the Red Sox. Smith’s placement on the IL doesn’t by any means eliminate the possibility of a trade; beyond the fact that he can return prior to the deadline, it’s not uncommon to see players flipped even while on the 10- or 15-day IL. (Look no further than Boston’s acquisition of Kyle Schwarber last summer.) That said, it does throw a wrench into things for the Mets, particularly since they’d be selling low on Smith in the first place.

The 27-year-old Smith hit .299/.366/.571 in 396 plate appearances with the Mets from 2019-20, giving the impression that he was making good on his status as a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect. In the two seasons since that time, however, he’s managed just a .233/.298/.345 batting line in 645 plate appearances, playing through a partial tear in his right shoulder’s labrum last season and struggling through inconsistent playing time so far in 2022. The Mets optioned Smith to Triple-A Syracuse at the end of May, and while he hit fairly well in the minors and has been a bit better since returning in late June, the overall results this season have been quite poor.

Smith is owed the remainder of a $3.95MM salary for the 2022 season and will be arbitration-eligible twice more before becoming a free agent following the 2024 season — assuming he’s tendered a contract, of course. At present, he looks like a clear non-tender candidate for a Mets team that won’t be able to afford him regular playing time upon his return from the IL, although another club might welcome the chance to buy low on Smith and hope that regular at-bats bring about production closer to his 2019-20 form.

Best Fits For A Whit Merrifield Trade

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For the past few seasons, there’s been loose deadline speculation around the possibility of the Royals dealing Whit Merrifield. To this point, Kansas City has resisted that possibility. A career-long member of an organization that is generally among the game’s most loyal, Merrifield was a late-bloomer who signed an affordable early-career extension. That allowed the Royals to keep him at little cost through his prime seasons, which included consecutive MLB-leading hit totals in 2018-19 and a pair of All-Star appearances.

As recently as last season, Merrifield participated in the Midsummer Classic. He went on to appear in all 162 games, led baseball with 42 doubles and swiped an AL-best 40 bases. The Royals hoped he’d be a top-of-the-order sparkplug for a more competitive team in 2022, but that hasn’t panned out. Not only has the team found itself 20 games below .500 at the All-Star Break, Merrrifield is having a career-worst season. He owns a .240/.292/.343 line through 373 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 percentage points below league average by measure of wRC+.

Merrifield is signed through the end of next season. The Royals restructured his deal during Spring Training, so he’s making $7MM this year (about $2.73MM of which will be paid out after the August 2 deadline) and $6.75MM next season. The deal also contains a $500K buyout on a 2024 mutual option. With the affordable control and Merrifield’s trade value at a low ebb, the Royals don’t have to force a trade over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last month the club was more amenable to dealing him than they’ve been in years past.

Even during a down year, Merrifield should draw attention from other clubs. He remains a high-contact bat and an excellent baserunner, having stolen 14 more bags while being caught just twice. He’s typically a solid defender at both second base and in the corner outfield, although public metrics are down a bit on his first-half performance in that regard. Merrifield has also looked more like himself of late, hitting .269/.322/.392 with 15 doubles and 11 steals in 65 games since the start of May. His April was abysmal, but he’s been productive for the past two and a half months and has a quality career body of work.

If the Royals were to seriously market Merrifield over the next two weeks, which teams stand out as the best fits? With a season and a half of remaining control, it’ll have to be a team that realistically feels it can compete by 2023. The Pirates, Reds, A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Nationals can probably be ruled out on that alone. The Rockies and Rangers have their sights set on competing next year, but neither is likely to preemptively acquire a second baseman this summer. The Tigers are perhaps a bit more plausible given the tough season they’ve gotten from Jonathan Schoop, but they’re going to be more focused on dealing some players than acquiring a notable veteran from a division rival with an eye towards 2023.

Of the remaining two-thirds of the league’s teams, which seem likeliest to be in touch with Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Piccolo?

Best Fits

Mariners — Seattle has won 14 in a row to go into the All-Star Break owners of a 51-42 record. It’s still an uphill battle to catch the Astros in the AL West, but they’re firmly in the Wild Card mix and likely to look for ways to upgrade over the next two weeks. No position stands out more than second base, where Seattle has gotten a collective .212/.279/.299 line. Offseason acquisition Adam Frazier has underwhelmed, as has last year’s deadline pickup Abraham Toro. The M’s could move Ty France to second base, but he’s better suited for first base/designated hitter duty. Frazier’s headed towards free agency after this season anyhow, and Merrifield could be an affordable upgrade for both the remainder of this season and next.

White Sox — The White Sox have had a generally underwhelming season, but they’re coming out of the Break just three games back in the AL Central. The second base tandem of Leury García and Josh Harrison hasn’t panned out, although Harrison has been alright over the past month. Merrifield would still be a definitive upgrade there, and his relatively modest salary should be particularly appealing to a team already sporting a franchise-record payroll. Would the Royals be willing to deal Merrifield inside the division? They’d surely like to compete next season, so perhaps that’ll give them some hesitance, but he’d only be under contract for one season of plausible contention.

Dodgers — Heyman reported last week that the Dodgers have already been in touch with the Royals. Second base isn’t really a need for L.A., with former top prospect Gavin Lux enjoying his awaited breakout season. Lux has seen some time in left field of late while the Dodgers have been without Chris Taylor, though, and their offseason pickup of Hanser Alberto as a righty-hitting utilityman hasn’t worked. Landing Merrifield may lead to a bit of a position player surplus once Taylor returns from the injured list, but the Dodgers haven’t been deterred by having “too much talent” in recent years.

Giants — The Giants are in a similar boat as their archrivals. They have a handful of second base-caliber players, and righties Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada are playing well. Tommy La Stella is off to a rough start after opening the year on the injured list, and the Giants have already been tied to Brandon Drury.  That suggests they’re open to adding another righty-swinging versatile infielder. Merrifield doesn’t have Drury’s power, but his high-contact game may be a better fit for Oracle Park.

Brewers — The Brewers are expected to look for another bat this summer as they battle the Cardinals at the top of the NL Central. Kolten Wong has been a slightly below-average hitter this year, and his public defensive metrics have tumbled. That’s not too dissimilar from Merrifield, and perhaps Milwaukee will feel he’s not much (if any) of an upgrade over Wong. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently wrote that the Brew Crew could listen to offers on Wong even as they look for other ways to add to the offense.

Longer Shots

Orioles — The Orioles are within 3 1/2 games of a Wild Card spot despite their second basemen hitting only .196/.269/.363. Rougned Odor is just a stopgap, and the O’s are likely to look for a better second baseman this offseason. Actually reaching the playoffs this year is unlikely, but Merrifield is affordable and would be a good fit for a 2023 team that could more earnestly compete. With the 2022 club at least hanging around, there’s an argument for GM Mike Elias and his staff to strike a little early for a controllable player.

Angels — It’s a similar argument for the Angels, although their involvement in the bidding would be strictly about 2023. The Halos have gotten nothing from second base this year, one of the reasons they’re set to miss the playoffs again. Next season will be a turning point, with Shohei Ohtani slated to reach free agency after the year. They’re going to have to aggressively address the roster’s flaws over the next eight months. Nothing stops them from adding controllable players this summer while still dealing rentals like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen.

Rays — The Rays haven’t gotten much out of second base this year, but that’s largely because Brandon Lowe missed more than a month. With Lowe back, the keystone is no longer a concern, although Tampa Bay’s myriad outfield injuries could cause them to look at a versatile infield/outfield type.

Braves — Atlanta hasn’t gotten much from Orlando Arcia since Ozzie Albies broke his foot. They acquired Robinson Canó as a stopgap and anticipate Albies returning late next month. That probably reduces the urgency to add a second baseman, although they’re in a tight battle with the Mets and could work Merrifield into the corner outfield once Albies returns.

Phillies — Continuing the theme of “contenders whose second basemen got hurt,” the Phils have been without Jean Segura since May. He’s expected back this year, though, and the presence of top prospect Bryson Stott gives Philadelphia some cover until then. Bullpen or center field help seems likelier.

No Pressing Second Base Need

Each of the Yankees, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox have everyday second basemen locked into the lineup. Merrifield’s ability to play the corner outfield could make him an option for some of this group — the Yankees and Padres, in particular, could look into outfield additions — but they seem less likely to be motivated than teams searching for a second baseman. Much of Merrifield’s appeal lies in his defensive flexibility, and pigeon-holing him into the corner outfield reduces a good bit of his value. Contenders looking for an impactful corner bat to upgrade the middle of the order seem likely to find cleaner fits elsewhere.

Merrifield’s vaccination status also impacts some teams’ pursuits, most notably the Blue Jays. He was not permitted to travel to Canada for the Royals series in Toronto last week, and similar concerns reportedly diminished the Yankees’ interest in teammate Andrew Benintendi. Merrifield told reporters he’d be open to reconsidering his stance on getting vaccinated if dealt to a playoff contender that could have to travel across the border for meaningful games. He stopped short of firmly declaring he’d do so, however, and questions about his availability for those games could be of concern for some teams.

There’s no guarantee the Royals will actually follow through on a Merrifield trade. This is far from the first time his name has made the rounds on the rumor circuit, and Kansas City has yet to pull the trigger on a deal (or seemingly come close). If the front office takes a different approach this summer, teams like the Mariners, White Sox, Dodgers, Giants and Brewers feel like the most plausible suitors.

Boras On Juan Soto Extension Offer, Potential Trade, Rumored Nationals Sale

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All eyes will be on Juan Soto over the next 13 days. With the annual amateur draft and All-Star Game now in the rearview mirror, what figures to be a frenzied and condensed summer trade market will be up and running. Soto’s recent rejection of a 15-year, $440MM contract extension has already drawn countless headlines, and his reported subsequent availability on the trade market will generate unprecedented intrigue.

Agent Scott Boras addressed Soto’s decision to turn down what would’ve been the largest total guarantee in MLB history this week, first in an interview with James Wagner of the New York Times and then with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast, “The Show.” There were plenty of factors in the decision, but Boras suggested that the average annual value, the potential sale of the franchise and uncertainty about the team’s direction all weighed heavily.

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Juan Soto Trade]

“I don’t think anybody wants to work for someone they don’t know,” Boras told Wagner. “So it’s kind of a ghost contract. We don’t know who’s going to pay it. Consequently, when you’re a player like Juan, you’re a winning player and you want to make sure there’s a lot more things than dollars and cents involved and who you’re going to work for and where you’re going to be for the majority.”

In his appearance with Sherman and Heyman, Boras spoke about the respect Soto has for the Lerner family and the commitment they’ve shown to winning over the years, but the direction of an incoming ownership group can’t be known at this time. Even if a swift return to contention is the goal, the Nationals’ bleak farm system, lack of big league talent on the current roster, and the strong division in which they play all coalesce to make an immediate rebound unlikely. Soto is surely aware of this.

“Juan Soto has a ring on his finger and he has had people that he knows and trusted ever since his inception with the franchise, but now that group of people has said, ’We’re going to move on and assign this team to another group,'” said Boras, in reference to the Lerner family’s likely sale of the franchise. “…When you’re a player, you can talk about being offered things, but it doesn’t carry with it the intentions [of ownership] and the security of winning — the goals of the player that are beyond economic.”

As one would expect, the potential sale of the Nationals is a complicating factor in both extension and trade talks. It’s understandable if Soto prefers to wait to see what happens with the franchise to get a feel for a new owner’s mentality. Conversely, whether Soto is or isn’t with the team will have an impact on the sale of the team itself. Boras is, unsurprisingly, of the mind that Soto is an asset who’ll enhance the team’s appeal for prospective buyers, as “billionaires certainly like their choices” and will want the option of whether to build around Soto or commit to an early rebuild.

ESPN’s Buster Olney sees things differently, saying on yesterday’s Baseball Tonight podcast that executives around the game believe new owners will want the situation resolved one way or another before taking over. With an extension likely off the table, that would mean completing a trade before the sale of the team goes through. Of course, we don’t yet know who the new owners will be, so that’s a speculative view of the scenario (much like Boras’ belief that the new owners will want the chance to make the choice themselves).

Even in the absence of the current ownership uncertainty, however, Boras seemed to intimate that the Nationals’ offer simply wouldn’t have been sufficient. As we saw with Aaron Judge prior to the season, being paid at an annual rate that’s commensurate with baseball’s top stars appears important to Soto.

“The rarity of Juan Soto, this is from age 19 to 23, so he’s really separated himself to be in a very small group, among Major League history, of performance levels,” said Boras.”[Those players] are going to be at the highest order of average annual values, and yet the proposal placed him well below the top group, in the No. 15 or 20 range.”

All of that lines up to further cement the reality that Soto will at least be available in talks over the coming two weeks, but it’s wholly unclear whether any team will meet what will be a historic asking price. Olney suggested in that previously referenced segment that the Nationals are going to want Major League-ready talent to headline a return and, of note, added that the Yankees and Dodgers are at least somewhat wary of surrendering the type of enormous prospect value Soto will command. The Yankees, of course, also have the future of their own superstar outfielder (Judge) to consider in conjunction with any theoretical Soto scenarios, which only further complicates the equation on their end.

No Extension Talks Yet Between Rangers, Martin Perez

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With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, the Rangers will have to make a decision on how to proceed with Martín Pérez. Signed to a one-year deal over the offseason, the left-hander is an impending free agent on a team that currently sits 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. That makes him a fairly obvious trade candidate, although both the hurler and Texas general manager Chris Young have expressed interest in working out an extension.

Pérez reiterated his interest when speaking with Robert Murray of FanSided, but he indicated that talks had yet to get underway. “We haven’t talked anything about an extension,” Pérez told Murray. “I signed with Texas again. That was my home for a long time. I feel great there. But I don’t know what their plans are. … I’d like to stay. It’s the same when you go back home and you always want to stay.”

As he suggested, Pérez is plenty familiar with the organization. He began his career as a Ranger, developing into one of the game’s top pitching prospects and reaching the majors for the first time in 2012. He spent six-plus seasons in Arlington before heading to Minnesota in advance of the 2019 campaign. After a year with the Twins and two seasons with the Red Sox, he returned to his original stomping grounds on a buy-low $4MM deal coming out of the lockout.

The Rangers have gotten well beyond their money’s worth on that pact. Pérez pitched his way to the All-Star Game for the first time, tossing 111 innings of 2.68 ERA ball through 18 starts. He hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 in any season since 2013, but he appears on his way to achieving that mark this year. That should draw him some attention from pitching-needy contenders over the next couple weeks, particularly given the underwhelming recent runs from some of the other rental arms available.

That said, it’s unlikely that rival teams will view Pérez as the middle or top of the rotation arm that sterling ERA would suggest. He owns a career-best strikeout percentage, but it’s still a couple ticks below average at 20.7%. This year’s 8.4% swinging strike rate isn’t much different than his marks of prior seasons. He’s inducing ground-balls at a greater than 51% clip, but he’s done so in years past without the same kind of run prevention success. Indeed, a minuscule 6.7% home run per fly ball rate looks to be a key catalyst for his better results. A pitcher’s home run rate tends to fluctuate, and clubs will surely be skeptical he can keep the ball in the yard at this extent.

It’s not fair to chalk Pérez’s better numbers up entirely to luck, however. He’s working with career-best control, only walking 6.6% of opponents. He’s also tweaked his repertoire, ramping up the usage of his sinker while scaling back a cutter that had been a particularly homer-prone offering last season. That change has been most dramatic against right-handed batters, who gave Pérez fits last season. After being tattooed at a .308/.368/.514 clip without the platoon advantage, he’s holding righties to a manageable .242/.302/.359 line in 2022. He’s gotten better results against lefty hitters as well, but his improvement against righties has been starker.

There aren’t many recent precedents for pitchers coming off seasons similar to the one Pérez is having. Between 2019-21, only five pitchers (minimum 100 innings) even posted an ERA under 4.00 with strikeout, walk and grounder rates in the realm of those Pérez has posted this season. Brett Anderson hit free agency after the 2019 campaign and signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Brewers. Anderson, though, had a spottier durability track record than Pérez has had and had an even more extreme low-strikeout approach.

Wade Miley’s 2021 numbers — 3.36 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk percentage, 49.3% ground-ball rate — are probably the closest recent parallel. Miley wasn’t a free agent last winter. He was, however, waived by the Reds and claimed by the Cubs, who promptly exercised a $10MM club option. That kind of annual salary could be a reasonable range for Pérez, but he and his representatives are likely to seek a multi-year deal. Miley’s salary came without the benefit of open market bidding, after all, and he’s playing this season at age 35. Pérez, on the other hand, won’t turn 32 until shortly before Opening Day in 2023.

Texas’ 2023 rotation outlook is largely unclear. Jon Gray will have one spot after signing a four-year deal last offseason. Dane Dunning looks like a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm. The Rangers haven’t gotten much else beyond that duo and Pérez, with each of Taylor Hearn, Glenn Otto and Spencer Howard struggling mightily. The organization would love if top prospects Cole Winn and Jack Leiter proved ready for the majors early next year, but both righties are scuffling in the upper minors. For the Rangers to contend for a playoff spot next season, they’ll probably need to add at least one starter from outside the organization even if they re-sign Pérez.

Presumably, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and Young will be in touch with the southpaw’s camp shortly. Assuming there’s truly mutual extension interest, it behooves the club to have an idea of the kind of contract that could be necessary to keep him off the free agent market before August 2. How far the gap is to be bridged in extension talks will surely play a role in the front office’s decision whether to shop him to contenders for the stretch run.

Twins, First-Rounder Brooks Lee Agree To Terms

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The Twins are in agreement with first-round pick Brooks Lee, reports Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily (Twitter link). The former Cal Poly star will receive a $5.675MM signing bonus.

Lee, 21, fell to the Twins at eighth overall on Sunday, a bit of a surprise. He placed among the draft’s top six prospects in the estimation of Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN, FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline. All but ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel slotted Lee as the top college prospect in the class (McDaniel had him second behind Kevin Parada), with unanimous praise for his hit tool projection. Baseball America suggests the switch-hitting infielder could develop into a plus-plus hitter (a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale) at his peak. Other outlets weren’t quite so bullish, but they all project him as an above-average hitter at minimum while raving about his awareness of the strike zone.

That was on full display at Cal Poly, where Lee dominated mid-major pitching. After barely playing in 2020 due to the combination of an early-season injury and the pandemic season cancelation, he spent the following two seasons as the Mustangs everyday shortstop. He posted an OPS north of 1.000 in each year, combining to hit .351/.426/.647 with 64 walks and 63 strikeouts through 538 collegiate plate appearances. The Big West hasn’t been one of the country’s better conferences in recent seasons, but Lee also raked over a 21-game stint in the Cape Cod League last summer and drew strong visual evaluations from scouts for his offensive upside.

Lee isn’t a great runner, and most outlets project he’ll move off shortstop either before or shortly after reaching the majors. He’s a fluid defender with good hands, however, so the general expectation is that he’ll remain on the infield at either second or third base.

The eight overall pick comes with a slot value of $5.4424MM, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com. Lee’s bonus comes in a bit above that mark, although it’s a touch lower than the slot value of the preceding pick. Minnesota’s overall bonus pool is just north of $10MM.

Sergio Romo Elects Free Agency

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Veteran right-hander Sergio Romo went unclaimed on waivers following his recent DFA and has elected free agency, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The Blue Jays had designated Romo for assignment this past weekend.

Romo’s time with the Jays proved to be brief. Signed to a big league deal after being designated for assignment and released by the Mariners, he appeared in six games with Toronto and allowed a pair of earned runs on one hit and two walks with three strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings. That lone hit was a home run, continuing an alarming spike in home-run rate that dates back to his time in Seattle earlier this season.

The 39-year-old Romo signed a one-year, $2MM deal with the Mariners late in the offseason, after Seattle found out that right-hander Casey Sadler would miss the season due to shoulder surgery. He didn’t find his footing in either locale this year, however, evidenced by a 7.50 ERA and whopping seven long balls in just 18 innings of work.

Romo isn’t far removed from a solid 2019-20 run with the Marlins and Twins, when he pitched to a combined 3.59 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. However, his strikeout rate dipped a bit last season during a pedestrian year with the A’s, and he’s whiffed a career-worst 17.7% of his opponents so far in 2022. Romo has been a soft-tosser for his whole career and had success averaging just 86.5 mph on his “fastball” from 2016-20, but this season’s 85.2 mph average, like his strikeout rate, is a career-low.

Cubs, Red Sox Among Teams To Discuss Dominic Smith With Mets

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Mets first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith has been an obvious change-of-scenery candidate for months, and Robert Murray of FanSided reports that the Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams to have recently spoken to the Mets about the 27-year-old.

It’s been a season to forget for Smith, who opened the year in a bench role that gave him limited playing time before he was optioned to Triple-A on May 31. Smith received 101 plate appearances over the season’s first two months, starting 22 of the team’s first 40 games — including just 13 of the Mets’ 29 games in May. Along the way, he struggled to a .186/.287/.256 batting line, losing more and more time to fellow DH candidate J.D. Davis.

Upon being optioned to Syracuse, Smith appeared in 15 games and turned in a .266/347/.438 batting line with a pair of homers, five doubles and three steals in 72 trips to the plate. He was summoned back to the big leagues in late June and has batted .208/.255/.333 in 51 plate appearances since — again seeing sparse playing time as a part-time option off the bench. He’s played in 19 games since returning but only played a complete game on nine occasions.

This is the second straight season in which Smith has struggled, though he acknowledged back in Spring Training that he played through a small tear in the labrum of his right shoulder during the 2021 season. That surely played a role in Smith’s lackluster .244/.304/.363 showing last season — particularly when comparing that output to the robust .299/.366/.571 slash he posted in 396 plate appearances from 2019-20.

Smith’s trade value is at a low point, given the consecutive poor seasons at the plate and minimal defensive value. He’s improved his glovework at first base in recent years but is miscast as a left fielder. Still, Smith is a former first-round pick (No. 11 overall in 2013) and multi-time top-100 prospect who, from 2019-20, looked to be well on his way to solidifying himself as a middle-of-the-order presence in Queens. Pete Alonso’s emergence understandably cut into his opportunities, however, and Smith’s playing time was further cut down this season when the Mets added Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha and Starling Marte to an already crowded infield/outfield mix.

There’s some sense to both Boston and Chicago as potential fits for Smith, who is earning $3.95MM in 2022 and has two seasons of club control remaining beyond the current campaign. The Red Sox have seen Bobby Dalbec’s sky-high strikeout rates catch up to him as his 2020-21 batting average on balls in play has come back down to earth, and they could lose J.D. Martinez to free agency at season’s end. Franchy Cordero, meanwhile, got out to a decent start at first base in his latest big league look but has faltered since the calendar flipped to July. Cordero, Dalbec and top prospect Tristan Casas give the Sox some options at first and at DH beyond the 2022 season, but Smith is a sensible enough buy-low candidate to add to the mix.

Over at Wrigley Field, the Cubs have received poor production from both Frank Schwindel and Alfonso Rivas. The Cubs surely hoped that they’d unearthed a diamond in the rough after Schwindel erupted with an out-of-nowhere .342/.389/.613 slash and 13 homers in 56 games with them down the stretch in ’21, but Schwindel is hitting just .238/.283/.383 in a similar sample size this season. Rivas, meanwhile, is at .236/.313/.323 in his first extended big league audition. The Cubs have been threading the needle between rebuilding and also trying to add some interesting long-term pieces (e.g. Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman), and Smith would align with that type of addition.

Given Smith’s pedigree and the production he displayed in 2019-20, it’s likely that other clubs will check in, hoping that a more consistent role might bring about a return to form. Smith hasn’t outwardly requested a trade from the Mets, but he’s also been candid when asked by reporters about the possibility of a trade, stating that while he loves the Mets organization, his goal is to be an everyday player — wherever that might be.

Mariners Release Daniel Ponce de Leon

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The Mariners have released right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The 30-year-old will return to the open market and search for his next opportunity.

Ponce de Leon was drafted by the Cardinals in 2014 and stayed with the organization until being released in September of 2021. He had a nice MLB debut but saw his ERA climb as time went on. He put up a 2.73 ERA in 2018, followed by marks of 3.70, 4.96 and 6.21 in the three subsequent campaigns.

Although he generally got strikeouts at above-average rates, his walks kept mounting and made it harder for him to succeed. Last year, the strikeouts vanished, as his rate dropped from 31.5% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2021, helping his ERA spike. On the whole, he has 147 2/3 innings of MLB experience with a 4.33 ERA, 37% ground ball rate, 23.9% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate.

This year, he signed a minor league deal with the Angels in January but was released and joined the Mariners on another minors deal in April. Even during his down years with the Cardinals, he still generally pitched well in Triple-A, though even that has eluded him this season. Through 16 starts with the Tacoma Rainiers, he’s logged 71 1/3 innings with a 7.95 ERA. His 24.1% strikeout rate is a bit above average, but his 12.7% walk rate and 27% ground ball rate are both subpar. Based on those unfortunate results, the Mariners have cut him loose and sent him back into free agency.

The Market For Rental Starters Is On Shaky Ground

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The starting pitchers that have received, and surely will continue to receive, the most attention in trade rumors are Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. It’s not surprising, given that they’re all quality pitchers, have been in rumors for a long time and are currently playing for obvious sellers. They also each come with an extra year of control, making them doubly enticing. Why add an exciting new pitcher for just one postseason push when you can do it for two? MLBTR recently ranked the trade candidates and placed them #4, 5 and 6, respectively.

However, with upwards of a dozen teams looking to bolster their pitching staffs in the coming weeks, not all of them will succeed in grabbing one of that trio. In fact, with their extra control, there’s no guarantee any of them will be traded. Montas and Mahle are both dealing with minor injuries right now, and though both are expected to be well enough to pitch before the deadline, there’s always the possibility of the injury getting worse and scuttling trade hopes. Regardless, some teams are going to have to look farther down the list of trade candidates, which is where things get murky.

The top 50 list linked above featured six starters who are set to reach free agency at the end of the year: José Quintana at #7, Martín Pérez at #12, Chad Kuhl at #17, Jordan Lyles at #18, Noah Syndergaard at #21 and Mike Clevinger at #38. (Lyles isn’t a rental in the strictest sense, as he has an $11MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. But since the odds seem to be against that getting picked up, I’ve included him here.) That makes them a little less desired on the market, but also means the acquisition cost should be lower. Although that list was published less than two weeks ago, the sand has already started to shift a bit under this market, and could potentially do so again in the weeks to come.

Quintana was having an excellent start to his season but has slipped recently. When he landed that #7 spot on the list a couple of weeks ago, he had a 3.33 ERA. However, he’s had two miserable starts since then, allowing four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on July 1o, followed by six earned runs in five innings on July 15. His ERA has jumped up to 3.99 just from those two outings. Teams aren’t likely to radically alter their evaluation of a pitcher based on just two starts, especially with the latter taking place in Coors Field. But then again, Quintana’s strong first half was also a small sample, coming after a few years of ineffective work. He had a 4.68 ERA in 2019, then was limited to just ten innings in 2020 due to injury. Last year, he worked mostly as a reliever and put up a 6.43 ERA. He’s made 18 starts this year and two bad ones won’t completely undo the rest, but how much will a team value those 16 decent ones after years of mediocrity? Were those last two starts flukes or regression to the mean?

Pérez is in a similar boat, as he was out-pitching his track record in the early going but has come back down to earth of late. At the end of his start on June 5th, he had a 1.56 ERA but has a 4.54 since. He still has an excellent 2.68 mark on the season overall based on that strong start, but the recent rough patch raises questions. After eight straight seasons with an ERA between 4.38 and 6.22, has he suddenly turned a corner at the age of 31? Or was it a mirage that’s now fading from view? Either way, there’s also the extra complication that the Rangers might just hang onto Pérez and extend him.

Kuhl’s situation has some parallels as well, as he had a 3.17 ERA through his June 3 start but a 5.45 over his last seven outings. Further complicating matters is the fact that the Rockies seem to be leaning towards doing their thing that they do, holding onto obvious trade candidates and hoping to work out extensions. Last year, they didn’t trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray or C.J. Cron, despite all three heading towards free agency. They recouped a draft pick when Story rejected the qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, extended Cron but came up short in trying to hang onto Gray. This year, it seems like Kuhl might be this year’s Cron, as he’s apparently comfortable in Colorado and willing to stay beyond this season. Any team that wanted to acquire him would probably have to blow away the Rockies with an overpay.

As for Lyles, his situation has changed not so much because of his performance, but the rest of the team. When that list was published, the Orioles were 41-44. They were on a six-game win streak, but that seemed to be a flash in the pan of what would surely go down as another miserable season in Baltimore. Well, that six-game win streak eventually turned in a ten-gamer, and the O’s are now 46-46, just 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Does that make them change their deadline approach? Perhaps, perhaps not. The odds of a postseason berth are still low, with FanGraphs giving them a 1.4% chance. But with excited fans turning out to Camden Yards for the first time in years, would the club still pull the plug on deadline selling? Lyles was just signed this offseason and isn’t a fan favorite like Trey Mancini. But with his 4.76 ERA, he’s not likely to bring back much more than a lottery ticket prospect anyway. Perhaps the O’s would be better served to just hang onto those innings and hope that 1.4% number grows.

Unlike the Orioles, the Angels have only dug themselves into a deeper hole. At the time MLBTR’s rankings came out, they were seven games out of a playoff spot, theoretically one hot streak away from jumping right back into the mix. However, they’ve unfortunately gone the other way, slipping to 10 1/2 back. That should only solidify Syndergaard as a guaranteed trade chip. But like many of the other pitchers highlighted here, he hasn’t been at his best lately. He had a 3.53 ERA through mid-June but a 5.01 over his last four starts. That’s a small sample, but he hasn’t looked like himself this season. After only throwing two innings over 2020-2021 due to Tommy John surgery and with his velocity down from his pre-surgery form, it’s fair to wonder if there might be some fatigue setting in.

Clevinger is a unique case, compared to the other names on this list. The Padres aren’t looking to sell because they’re not competitive, quite the opposite. It’s because they are competitive that they are looking to use their rotation surplus to create payroll space in order to upgrade elsewhere without going over the luxury tax. Moving Clevinger would be one way to do it, though his $5.75MM CBT hit is much less than Blake Snell’s $10MM. From San Diego’s perspective, moving Snell is probably preferable for the extra breathing space. A team could certainly try to work out a Clevinger deal, but you’d be competing with whatever teams are offering for Snell, as well as any other Clevinger suitors.

There are a few other names to consider, of course, but all come with similar question marks. Arizona’s Zach Davies is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Detroit’s Michael Pineda only recently returned from a broken finger and had his worst start of a generally underwhelming season just before the break. Mike Minor has an ERA north of 6.00 with the Reds.

All in all, there’s not a ton to bank on here. Any team that doesn’t pony up for Castillo, Montas or Mahle is going to be left with these options, all of whom come with question marks. There are other controllable starters who could be available, such as Oakland’s Paul Blackburn. But with three extra years of control, the A’s surely won’t just give him away. And he, too, has seen a downturn in performance over the last month (7.46 ERA over past five starts). We’re now less than two weeks until the August 2 trade deadline, so the remaining games for these pitchers will be magnified. With the expanded playoffs, there are still 17 teams that have at least a 29.7% chance to make the postseason, per FanGraphs. That has the potential for a situation with high demand and low supply in the days to come, bad news for those who need pitching but good news for those selling it.

Marlins Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Jacob Berry

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The Marlins have agreed to terms with first-round pick Jacob Berry, according to Joe Frisaro of Man On Second Baseball. Frisaro says that the sixth overall selection will be receiving a bonus of $6MM, which is just a hair below the $6.03MM slot value for the pick.

Berry, a third baseman out of Louisiana State University, posted a ridiculous .370/.464/.630 batting line on the year, hitting 15 home runs in the process. In addition to that potent bat, Berry will bring some versatility to the table, as he is a switch-hitter who also saw some time in the outfield corners this year. Baseball America placed him eighth on their pre-draft rankings, complimenting his plate discipline but adding that his defense is his weakest trait. Still, they note that his bat should still play even if his defensive shortcomings result in a move to first or designated hitter down the road. Berry also came in at #8 over at FanGraphs, was #9 at ESPN, #27 at The Athletic and #7 at MLB Pipeline.

By getting Berry to agree to an under-slot deal, the Marlins will be able to reapportion that small amount of money to try and sign other draft picks.

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