The Opener: Guardians, Rays, Yankees
Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
With Game 3 of the World Series in the rear-view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. Guardians Dominate Gold Glove Award Results
This year’s Gold Glove award winners were announced yesterday, with a remarkable amount of first time winners. Also remarkable is the way Cleveland dominated the AL; while no other team took home more than two Gold Gloves, the Guardians brought in a whopping four: Shane Bieber at pitcher, Andres Gimenez at second base, Steven Kwan in left field, and Myles Straw in center field. All four of the team’s Gold Glove recipients are under team control for multiple seasons, with Bieber set to hit free agency after 2024, Gimenez after 2027 and both Straw and Kwan under team control through the end of the 2028 season. These gold glove awards not only serve as a reminder of the successful season the Guardians had, but of the incredible youth of the roster, and the team control that comes with that youth.
2. The Rays Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration
Yesterday’s announcement of this year’s Super-Two cutoff prompts a re-examination of the coming arbitration class. The Rays have 19 players up for arbitration this offseason, the most in the majors. Matt Swartz projects Tampa to have to pay out over $42MM to retain all of their arbitration eligible players, it seems all but guaranteed that the Rays will have some tough decisions to make in terms of who to keep, who to trade, and who to non-tender. First baseman Ji-Man Choi, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough and catcher Francisco Mejia highlight the list of Rays in this arbitration class who may change uniforms this offseason as Tampa’s front office looks to optimize their limited financial resources.
3. Yankees To Explore Trade Market
The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted in a mailbag yesterday that the Yankees “simply have to try” trading third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks this offseason, citing both roster flexibility and payroll concerns. Hicks and Donaldson are set to cost the Yankees a combined $32MM this offseason, money a team focused on attempting to retain likely AL MVP Aaron Judge while simultaneously improving other areas of the roster would surely like to use elsewhere. Neither player can be expected to bring much of significance back to New York in trade, however. Donaldson is coming off a down season that saw him post a below average OPS+ for the first time since establishing himself as a full time player in 2013, and will play next season at age 37. Hicks, meanwhile, slashed just .216/.330/.313 in his first full season of games since 2018. While he’s younger than Donaldson, he still celebrated his 33rd birthday last month. Kirschner speculates that Hicks could bring back a “mid- to low-level” prospect, but the more likely scenario is that the Yankees would have to engage in some sort of bad contract swap or attach a mid- to low-level prospect of their own to move these aging, expensive batters.
Latest On Nationals’ Sales Process, MASN Deal
As the Lerner family continues to explore a sale of the Nationals, the franchise’s ongoing dispute with the Orioles over television rights fees looms. Major League Baseball has renewed its efforts to try to broker an agreement between the franchises, write Barry Svrluga, Chelsea Janes and Ben Strauss of the Washington Post. The Talk Nats blog first reported last month that MLB was getting involved in trying to bring the sides together.
As both the Washington Post and Talk Nats have covered during the sales process, the TV rights dispute presents a fair bit of uncertainty for prospective Nationals buyers. As part of the relocation efforts to move the franchise from Montreal to Washington nearly two decades ago, the Nationals agreed to tie their local broadcasting rights to the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. MASN is jointly owned by the Nats and Orioles, but the Orioles’ ownership share is roughly 77% while the Nats own around 23%. That agreement, a condition of the franchise’s relocation into the Orioles’ geographic territorial rights, caps the Nationals’ TV revenue by making it impermissible for them to sell broadcasting rights to a regional sports network.
The Post notes the original agreement expressly stipulates that the Nationals’ obligations under the MASN deal would carry over in the event of a sale of a franchise. Thus, the unfavorable TV situation is a key consideration for those in discussions with the Lerners.
That’s all the more true in light of recent movement on that front. As Talk Nats and the Post have each reported, a group led by Ted Leonsis now appears to be the frontrunner in the sales process. Leonsis’ Monumental Sports & Entertainment also owns the NHL’s Capitals, the NBA’s Wizards and the WNBA’s Mystics, as well as having full control of NBC Sports Washington. Finding a way to broadcast games on NBCS Washington figures to be a key objective for Leonsis if his group eventually purchases the Nats, but they’d need to negotiate a settlement with the Orioles to buy out of their end of the MASN agreement to do so. Whether the Baltimore franchise would have interest in such an arrangement isn’t clear.
Of course, there’s a strong interest on MLB’s part in facilitating some kind of settlement. Both Talk Nats and the Post have suggested the TV rights uncertainty has slowed down the sale process, and it raises some questions about the franchise’s price point. The league would prefer to see the Nationals sold for a high price (and, to a lesser extent, to expedite the process). The Lerner family has reportedly sought around $2.5 billion.
Hanging over the potential negotiations is an acrimonious past between the Orioles and Nats that hasn’t been resolved. Disputes about the Nationals’ share of TV rights led to litigation that has been pending for nearly a decade. In 2019, an arbitrator ruled the network owed the Nationals around $105MM in unpaid rights fees. MASN appealed that decision, and the appeal has still yet to get on the docket for the New York Court of Appeals.
Interestingly, while an eventual sale to Leonsis still appears to be the likeliest outcome, one person familiar with the process tells the Post a number of paths remain possible. That source suggests the Lerners could still retain majority control in the long run, or perhaps bring in a minority owner initially with a longer-term path to majority ownership. (As an example of that sort of arrangement, the Guardians agreed to a sale in June that sees incoming buyer David Blitzer purchase roughly 25-30% of the franchise initially but have the right to purchase majority control six years down the line).
As the parties try to iron through the TV deal and potential sale, the Nationals’ on-field product is coming off an MLB-worst 55-107 season. They’re firmly amidst a rebuild and have cut back payroll dramatically. The franchise has approached $200MM on player payrolls in the past, but Roster Resource calculates their 2023 expenditures (including arbitration estimates) around $98MM. Svrulga, Strauss and Janes write that a few of the team’s baseball operations staffers have expressed some uncertainty about the organization’s spending capacity and overall direction this winter. Both manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo will stick around, at least, with the club picking up 2023 options on each this past summer.
Eppler: Mets Willing To Play Starling Marte In Center Field
The Mets are facing a number of high-profile free agents as the offseason looms. Among them is center fielder Brandon Nimmo, who’s easily the best non-Aaron Judge free agent option at the position. Nimmo and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon hear from a number of interested teams, as they’re allowed to formally speak with clubs other than the Mets five days after the conclusion of the World Series.
New York will surely keep in touch with Nimmo themselves, but they do have a potential in-house replacement if he departs. Starling Marte had played exclusively center field with the D-Backs, Marlins and A’s from 2020-21, but he moved to right field in deference to Nimmo after signing a four-year free agent deal last offseason. Marte didn’t start a single game in center field in 2022, logging all of five innings at the position. He played just under 1000 innings in right field.
After spending a year playing in a corner and having recently turned 34 years old, it’s fair to wonder if Marte’s days as a regular center fielder could be behind him. Speaking with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on The Show podcast this morning (Twitter link), Mets general manager Billy Eppler said the team would be comfortable deploying Marte as their primary center fielder in 2023 if necessary.
“Can Starling still play center field? Yeah, we believe he can,” Eppler told the Post. “That opens up some optionality for how we ultimately fill out that outfield. … We do have the ability to slide Marte over to center for a number of games, over 50% of the games. He’s got that ability to do that. … We are comfortable with him in center field.”
That’s certainly not a declaration the Mets are closing the book on retaining Nimmo. Eppler called re-signing Nimmo “not a closed case by any stretch of the imagination” and broadly spoke highly of his ability. One can argue for the Mets bringing back Nimmo as the center fielder and a top-of-the-lineup presence while keeping Marte and Mark Canha in the corners. Yet as Eppler noted, the possibly for Marte to slide back up the middle offers some additional flexibility in building out the roster if Nimmo does depart.
Public defensive metrics were mixed on Marte’s performance in right field during his debut season in Queens. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as three runs better than the average right fielder. Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Runs Above Average metric each pegged him below par, with UZR assigning him a -8 mark and Statcast putting him at -2. Eppler didn’t address Marte’s defensive metrics specifically but noted the outfielder battled some tightness in his left groin midway through the season. That perhaps explains in part a dip in his range that shouldn’t linger into 2023 after an offseason of recovery. Marte had zero MLB experience in right field before 2022, but he’d been consistently excellent in the other corner spot throughout his career.
His recent center field work has been mixed but serviceable. Between 2020-21, Marte logged 1509 1/3 innings in center. Both Statcast and UZR rated him a hair better than average, while DRS had him at a below-average but not intolerable -6 runs over that stretch.
In any event, the Mets will have to add an outfielder this offseason. Retaining Nimmo and keeping Marte and Canha in the corners would be the most straightforward outcome. Still, a nine-figure Nimmo deal could be beyond their liking as they also see players like Jacob deGrom, Edwin Díaz, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker (the latter two of whom are locks to decline options) hit the market. New York has as much spending capacity as any team under owner Steve Cohen, but they’re virtually certain to see at least a couple players of note depart for loftier guarantees elsewhere.
If Nimmo is among that group, the Mets would have more to work with attacking the corner outfield market than adding a center fielder. Aside from Judge and Nimmo, the top free agent center fielder is likely Kevin Kiermaier, who’ll be bought out by the Rays after an injury-plagued year. A Cody Bellinger non-tender would add an excellent glove to the mix and vault him above Kiermaier as the #3 option, but Bellinger is a .193/.256/.355 hitter over his past 900 plate appearances. There also aren’t any clear upgrades who’ll be available in trade, with players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds looking unlikely to move.
The corner outfield market is a bit deeper. Judge is obviously the prize, but the middle tier of free agency offers options like Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Joey Gallo, Michael Brantley and old friend Michael Conforto. There’s also a wider pool of potential trade candidates, with Hunter Renfroe, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Max Kepler and Anthony Santander among those who could be floated in talks over the coming months.
Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres
2022 was a big success for the Padres, as they made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They then knocked off the 101-win Mets as well as the 111-win Dodgers, slaying “the dragon up the freeway.” The Phillies put a stop to the magic in the NLCS but it was still the best campaign in recent Padres history. They have a strong core together to keep the good times going in 2023, but will also have to address some gaps created when some key pieces hit free agency.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Fernando Tatis Jr., IF/OF: $332.57MM through 2034.
- Manny Machado, 3B: $192MM through 2028. Machado can opt out after 2023.
- Joe Musgrove, SP: $100MM through 2027.
- Yu Darvish, SP: $19MM through 2023.
- Ha-Seong Kim, IF: $17MM through 2024, including $2MM buyout on mutual option for 2025.
- Blake Snell, SP: $16.6MM through 2023.
- Drew Pomeranz, RP: $10MM through 2023.
- Luis Garcia, RP: $3.5MM through 2023.
Padres also owe Eric Hosmer, since traded to the Red Sox, the majority of the three years and $39MM left on his contract. The Red Sox will pay him the league minimum with the Padres paying the rest. Hosmer can opt out after 2022 but is unlikely to do so.
Total 2023 commitments: $128.11MM
Total future commitments: $727.45MM
Options Decisions
- Wil Myers, OF: $20MM club option with $1MM buyout.
- Jurickson Profar, OF: $7.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Contract also has mutual option for 2024.
- Nick Martinez, RP: $6.5MM player option with $1MM buyout. Same structure exists for 2024 and 2025.
- Robert Suarez, RP: $5MM player option with $1MM buyout.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Josh Hader (5.115): $13.6MM
- Jorge Alfaro (5.083): $3.6MM
- Juan Soto (4.134): $21.5MM
- Tim Hill (4.112): $1.7MM
- Austin Adams (4.015): $1MM
- José Castillo (3.125): $900K
- Austin Nola (3.106): $2.2MM
- Trent Grisham (3.060): $2.6MM
- Adrian Morejon (3.013): $800K
- Jake Cronenworth (3.000): $4.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Alfaro, Adams, Castillo
Free Agents
The Padres stole the show at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto in one of the most unique trades in baseball history. He still has a couple years of arbitration eligibility to go, meaning the Friars will be able to enjoy a full season of Soto’s work in 2023. In terms of the other deadline pickups, Brandon Drury and Josh Bell are heading to free agency but Josh Hader has one arb year left, allowing the Padres to hang onto him.
Soto will be locked into right field, with Trent Grisham likely next to him in center. Grisham didn’t have a great year at the plate in 2022, but he’s still valuable due to his speed and defense. Left field could be wide open, as Jurickson Profar is lined up to opt out of the final season of his three-year deal. He’s set to make $7.5MM but could take the $1MM buyout and look to find more than $6.5MM on the open market to come out ahead. Wil Myers also saw some time in the outfield in 2022, though the Padres are sure to give him the $1MM buyout instead of picking up his $20MM option.
Of course, one complicating factor that needs to be considered is the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. An injury incurred via motorcycle accident during the lockout kept him out of action for the first half of 2022 and then a PED suspension prevented him appearing in the second half. The Padres will have to make a decision on where Tatis fits after that disappointing sequence of events. He still has 20 games remaining on his suspension but will be eligible to return to the team after that. While he was out of action, Ha-Seong Kim took over the shortstop job and had an excellent season.
Tatis has played some outfield in the past while dealing with injuries that kept him off short. He could theoretically be moved onto the grass going forward, but it seems the club is leaning towards a plan where Tatis returns to short, Kim moves over to second and Jake Cronenworth gets bumped to first. With Myers, Drury and Bell all departing, that would open up first for Cronenworth. Manny Machado is coming off an excellent season and will be a mainstay at third. If that is indeed the plan they wish to follow, adding a corner outfielder should be the main priority on the position player side of things.
The Friars have some internal options who could step up, such as José Azocar or Brandon Dixon, but they should be looking for an upgrade here. The top of the outfield market this winter will be Aaron Judge, who is set up for a massive payday. The Padres have shown they are not afraid to make a huge strike, meaning they can’t be ruled out on getting Judge and perhaps moving Soto over to left. However, with many large contracts already in place, they might opt for more modest options like Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley or Mitch Haniger. They could also be a fit for Trey Mancini, who can play first base and the outfield corners. Bringing back Drury and his positional versatility is also a logical move.
Behind the plate, the Padres have three MLB-caliber catchers in place, though they will have to make a decision about whether or not to keep all of them around next year. Jorge Alfaro didn’t get much time behind the plate towards the end of the year, only starting at catcher four times after rosters expanded at the start of September. The rest of the starts went to Austin Nola and Luis Campusano. With Alfaro striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances and not getting great marks for his defensive work, the club likely moves on and lets Campusano finally have some real playing time. He debuted in 2020 but still only has 28 MLB games on his résumé. With Alfaro projected for an arbitration salary of $3.6MM, he’s likely to be non-tendered.
In the rotation, the Padres will still have a strong front three, as Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are all under contract for next year. They will have to make decisions about the backend, though, as Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are both headed into free agency. The Padres also weakened their depth by including MacKenzie Gore in the Soto trade.
There is one in-house option in Adrian Morejon, with the club evidently not giving up on him as a starter. Morejon underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 and returned to make 26 appearances in 2022, though all of those were out of the bullpen. But prior to that, he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the league. It’s fairly logical that the Padres would want to give him another chance to see what he can do, but it’s also unlikely they will simply hand him a guaranteed spot in the rotation after a long layoff and then a handful of bullpen outings.
There are a couple of other depth options in the system, but the Padres will likely be looking to add two starters. There will be no shortage of options, with Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón all expected to trigger opt-outs and form the top of the pitching market. For teams that miss out on those guys, there are still lots of interesting hurlers on the next tier, including Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Anderson and many more. They could also look to the trade market, perhaps trying to get Pablo López or Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. But after unloading so many prospects at the deadline, they might not want to further subtract from their system.
The bullpen also might need some upgrades, especially if Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez both decide to opt out and return to free agency. If they did, they would join Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson, potentially subtracting four arms from the relief corps. They would still have Josh Hader, which is a fine starting point and means they probably won’t go for Edwin Diaz. But they could look for quality setup options, such as bringing back Suarez or going after Michael Fulmer, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino or Brad Hand. Martinez would reportedly prefer to be a starter, so perhaps they could convince him to stick around, if they think he can handle a rotation spot. Suarez, however, is a virtual lock to test free agency and land a multi-year deal.
Of course, how aggressive they go after filling these vacancies will depend upon the payroll situation. Historically, the Padres were not huge spenders but they have shifted that reputation in recent years, even nudging into luxury tax territory in each of the past two seasons. Roster Resource estimates their actual 2023 payroll to currently be around $187MM though the CBT number is much higher at $213MM. The disparity comes from the fact that CBT calculations are based on the average annual values of contracts, not just the salary earned by the players in 2023, and also factor in player benefits.
It’s unknown at this point how much the club is willing to spend, but it’s possible they could take the same approach as they did in 2022, hovering near the tax line but willing to go over it at the deadline if the right opportunity comes along. The lowest CBT threshold is jumping from $230MM up to $233MM for 2023, but that wouldn’t leave the Padres a lot of room to work with. A few non-tenders would create some more breathing room, but probably only about $5MM or so.
The club has plenty of talent but could use a left fielder, two starting pitchers, some relievers and maybe a first baseman as well. If they only have about $20MM to play with, it will be difficult to accomplish all of that. But the Padres have shown in recent years that they might have more money in the bank than you’d expect. Perhaps this offseason will prove that yet again.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Padres-centric chat on 11-2-22. Click here to read the transcript.
MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners
Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.
Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.
Here are the full list of winners:
American League
Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)
First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)
Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)
Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)
Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)
Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)
Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)
Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection
Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)
National League
Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win
Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)
First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)
Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)
Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win
Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)
Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)
Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection
Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)
Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)
Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection
Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)
Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)
Cardinals Outright Kramer Robertson, Kodi Whitley
The Cardinals have outrighted infielder Kramer Robertson and right-hander Kodi Whitley, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com.
Robertson, 28, began 2022 as a Cardinal but ended up bouncing around a bit. He went to Atlanta and then to the Mets before returning to the Cards on a series of waiver claims. It seems that he passed through waivers unclaimed this time around and will stick around the organization as depth.
Despite all that bouncing around, he only got into two major league games this year, spending most of the year on various minor league clubs. In 116 Triple-A games this year, he hit .239/.393/.363 for a wRC+ of 114. That high on-base rate and limited power have been a part of this repertoire for a while now, though he also brings defensive versatility to the table. He spent time at second base, third base and shortstop this season.
As for Whitley, 27, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in July of 2020 and has been an up-and-down arm for the club since then. He’s thrown 42 2/3 innings at the big league level over the past three seasons, registering a combined 3.38 ERA with a strong 24.9% strikeout rate but a high 12.4% walk rate. The needles moved in the wrong direction in 2022, as his ERA was up at 5.68, his punchouts down to 20.3% and his walks were up at 15.3%. Like Robertson, he will stick with the organization as depth but without taking up a spot on the 40-man.
Many teams face roster crunches at this time of year, given that there’s no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning guys on the 60-day IL will need spots again. Also, the deadline for adding players to protect them for the Rule 5 draft is coming up in mid-November. With those pressures, it seems that Robertson and Whitley were squeezed out and the Cards were willing to risk losing them on waivers.
Super Two Status Set At 2.128 Years Of Service
This year’s Super Two cutoff has been placed at two years and 128 days (2.128) of MLB service time, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. That is a slight increase over last year, which landed at 2.116.
During last winter’s lockout and subsequent collective bargaining negotiations, the MLBPA proposed changes to the Super Two system but eventually dropped those by the time the final agreement was reached. That means the Super Two system is the same as it has been in previous seasons.
As a refresher, each player gets one day of service time for each day of the season spent on the active roster or injured list. 172 days counts as a “year,” even though a normal MLB season is 187 days long. That means a player can spend a small amount of time in the minors and still earn a full year of service time.
Each player with between three and six years of MLB service time is eligible for the arbitration process, should he and his team fail to reach an agreement on a salary. Additionally, 22% of the players with between two and three years of MLB service also qualify, with such players being labeled as “Super Two” players. Any player in that window who also spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or injured list will be eligible for four passes through the arbitration system instead of the usual three.
Until players reach free agency upon reaching six years of MLB service time, the arbitration system is the primary method of raising their respective salaries. Prior to that, teams can keep salaries at the league minimum, meaning that qualifying for arbitration early is a significant boost for a player’s earning potential. As noted in Blum’s report, the group of those now considered Super Two players includes Daulton Varsho, Randy Arozarena, Tony Gonsolin, and many more.
Here are the Super Two cutoffs of the last decade-plus:
- 2021: 2.116
- 2020: 2.125
- 2019: 2.115
- 2018: 2.134
- 2017: 2.123
- 2016: 2.131
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
For all players eligible for arbitration, if they don’t agree with their respective clubs on a salary by January 13, both parties will exchange proposed salary figures with hearings then taking place between January 30 and February 17. Both sides present their cases to an arbiter, who has to choose one figure or the other, as opposed to deciding on some kind of middle point.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Angels Not Discussing Shohei Ohtani Trades At Present
With the offseason fast approaching, MLB front offices have begun exploratory talks about potential trades. However, Andy Martino of SNY reports that teams calling the Angels about two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani are finding that the Halos have “no appetite” for discussing such scenarios at present.
It’s no surprise that plenty of teams would be interested in Ohtani, after he showed that his 2021 MVP season was no fluke. A year ago, he hit 46 home runs and threw 130 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball en route to securing a unanimous MVP selection. This year, he took his pitching game to new heights, getting to 166 innings while lowering his ERA to 2.33. His offense took a bit of a dip, as he dropped to 34 homers in a similar number of plate appearances, but he cut his strikeout rate by more than 5% and had a better batting average.
That level of two-way production is perhaps unprecedented in all of baseball history, but certainly within the past century or so. Even Babe Ruth, who excelled at both hitting and pitching, didn’t really see those parts of his career overlap in the same way since he was a initially a pitcher who gradually took the mound less and hit more. Given Ohtani’s incredible and unique skillset, not to mention marketing opportunities, every team in baseball would surely love to have him on their roster.
In that case, it also stands to reason that the Angels would be loath to part with him. The fact that it’s even been a consideration is due to a few factors. First off, the team overall has been struggling of late, despite the contributions of both Ohtani and Mike Trout. They haven’t had a winning season since 2015 and haven’t made the postseason since 2014. Ohtani is also just a year away from free agency now and there haven’t any reports to suggest that there’s any momentum towards an extension. Furthermore, owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, casting a great deal of fog over the future of the franchise.
These factors put Ohtani in a situation somewhat analogous to that of Juan Soto, another superstar who once seemed untouchable in trades until he wasn’t. The circumstances weren’t exactly the same, since Soto still had 2.5 years of control at the time he was traded from the Nationals to the Padres. However, the team was unable to gain any traction in extension talks with Soto due to the uncertain nature of that franchise, which is also for sale. These comparisons have led to much speculation about Ohtani following a similar path, and the club even listened to offers at the most recent trade deadline. But even then, a trade seemed unlikely and all deliberations were reportedly kiboshed by Moreno.
With the hot stove about to warm up again in short order, the Ohtani rumors will surely follow, though it seems the club is not on the verge of anything. Martino’s report indicates that the Angels are rebuffing efforts to talk trade scenarios. Instead, it is believed they will try to explore an extension and, if unsuccessful, open up trade talks at next year’s deadline. We also can’t really rule out the scenario where the Angels are competitive next year and decide to keep him past the deadline. After all, they were neck-and-neck with the Astros through mid-May this year before a 14-game losing streak dealt them a gut punch that they never really recovered from. With a few improvements and some better luck next year, getting within striking distance of the expanded playoffs isn’t totally out of the question.
As for this offseason, it’s always possible that their approach could change as it progresses, for a number of reasons. If a sale of the club is finalized, perhaps the new owners will tip the scales one way or another. Maybe they will be interested in giving out a huge extension in order to keep a marquee player around, or perhaps they’d be prefer to try a rebuild and keep spending low for a while, as happened when the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter group purchased the Marlins.
That is a great unknown which could potentially extend to the club’s other offseason efforts. As we saw with Soto, a murky franchise future can make a player reluctant to bind themselves into a situation they could later regret. Will that make it harder to get free agents to sign in Anaheim? If that is indeed the case, it will make it challenging for general manager Perry Minasian to improve a 73-win team in order to compete with the dominant Astros, ascendant Mariners and aggressive Rangers in the AL West.
Perhaps there are future scenarios where Ohtani becomes available. As we saw with Soto, a player is “untouchable” until everything aligns just right to make the unthinkable become reality. For now, it seems the Angels will kick any trade considerations down the road. But their hold on Ohtani lasts for just one more year, meaning something will have to give between now and then.
Chris Sale Will Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause
In one of the least-surprising opt-out decisions in recent memory, left-hander Chris Sale has informed the Red Sox that he will not exercise the opt-out clause in his five-year, $145MM contract, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.
There’s never been any real thought that Sale was a candidate to opt out of the remaining two years and $55MM on that ill-fated extension. He pitched just 5 2/3 innings with the Sox this season and, over the first three years of the agreement, has tallied just 48 1/3 innings through 11 starts. Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2020 and thus missed the entirety of that year’s truncated season.
The recovery from that Tommy John procedure sidelined him into August of 2021, and his 2022 season was derailed by a series of bizarre injuries; Sale was shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. The Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.
It’s been a nightmare start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.
Looking ahead, the Sox have little choice but to hope Sale can get healthy and finally reclaim a spot near the front of their rotation. The lefty’s contract has zero trade value at present, and even if it did, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).
The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello could vie for a spot but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks). Righty Garrett Whitlock has obvious rotation potential but has thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Fellow righties Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski and Connor Seabold were all hit hard as rookies in 2022.
Suffice it to say, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill all set to become free agents and Sale more or less a complete question mark, starting pitching will be one of the main focuses for the Red Sox this offseason. It won’t be their sole pursuit, however, as the Sox also potentially stand to lose Xander Bogaerts to free agency and still hope to extend slugger Rafael Devers, who is set to reach the open market following the 2023 campaign.
Including Sale’s weighty salary, the Sox have $86.72MM committed to next year’s books, although that’s counting a $20MM salary for Bogaerts, who is certain to opt out of his contract’s final three seasons. Boston also has nearly $40MM in projected arbitration salaries and is on the hook for some hefty contractual buyouts — most notably the $8MM yet owed to the since-released Jackie Bradley Jr. They’ll quite possibly be on the hook for James Paxton‘s $4MM player option, which he’ll have the ability to exercise once the Sox make the easy call to decline his two-year, $26MM club option.