Mets Claim Tayler Saucedo From Blue Jays
The Mets have claimed reliever Tayler Saucedo off waivers from the Blue Jays, according to announcements from both teams. Toronto also announced that righty Casey Lawrence went unclaimed on waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster.
Saucedo has pitched in the big leagues in each of the last two seasons. He made 29 appearances in 2021 but only got into four big league games this year. In 28 1/3 combined innings, the southpaw has posted a 5.40 ERA. He’s only punched out 15.3% of opposing hitters, but he’s racked up ground balls at an incredible 58.7% clip. Saucedo has also held left-handed batters to a meager .182/.280/.295 line in 50 plate appearances, giving him an opportunity to carve out a role as a left-on-left specialist.
He had a much different profile with Triple-A Buffalo this year, only inducing grounders at a 40.5% clip but punching out 34.1% of batters faced. The Tennessee Wesleyan product has a 3.77 ERA in 93 career innings at the Triple-A level. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, meaning he can move back and forth between Queens and Triple-A Syracuse over the next couple seasons if he holds his 40-man roster spot. The Mets relied primarily on Joely Rodríguez as their left-handed bullpen arm this year, but he’s now a free agent. Adding further lefty depth figures to be a priority for general manager Billy Eppler and his staff.
Lawrence returned to the majors this season for the first time since 2018. The swingman soaked up 18 innings across six relief appearances, putting up a 7.50 ERA with a 13.9% strikeout rate. The 35-year-old had a strong 2.79 mark across 126 innings with Buffalo. He’s previously been outrighted, so he’s likely to decline the outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency.
Dodgers Considering Qualifying Offer For Tyler Anderson
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, there’s a “good chance” the Dodgers will extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to left-hander Tyler Anderson.
Teams have until 4pm Central on Thursday to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, giving the Dodgers about 24 hours left to make a final decision. If they indeed extend the offer to Anderson, he will have 10 days to talk to other teams and decide whether to accept it or turn it down.
The fact that Anderson is even a candidate for the offer speaks to what an incredible breakout season he had in 2022. Coming into the year, he had a career 4.62 ERA and fairly average peripherals with a 20.5 strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 39.1% ground ball rate. The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $8MM deal for his age-32 season.
That turned out to be a tremendous bargain for the club, as Anderson’s work in Dodger blue far surpassed any of his previous seasons. He appeared in 30 games and tossed 178 2/3 innings with an incredible 2.57 ERA, barely half of his previous average. His rate stats were still fairly similar to his previous ones, though he did drop his walk rate to a stingy 4.8%.
Where he seems to have made strides was inducing poor contact from opposing hitters. He was in the 98th percentile in terms of hard hit rate, going from 33% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022. His average exit velocity was also 98th percentile while his chase rate was 95th and his barrel rate was 86th. At least part of this could be credited to his changeup, which he threw 31.6% percent of the time compared to just 24.6% of the time in 2021.
Regardless of how he did it, the improvements are enough that the Dodgers are considering a salary more than double what they paid a year ago. If Anderson were to turn down the offer and sign elsewhere, they would be entitled to draft pick compensation. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax in 2022, their pick would be pushed back until after the fourth round. A signing team would also be subject to the forfeit of at least one pick, with other penalties on the table as well, depending on whether the team was a CBT payer or revenue sharing recipient.
Whether Anderson would accept the offer or not is an interesting question. On the one hand, this is likely his best chance at earning a hefty multi-year paycheck, since he’s coming off a season that could well be the best of his career. On the other hand, he never had a salary above $2.5MM prior to getting the $8MM from the Dodgers a year ago. If he suddenly had a $19.65MM offer on the table, it would likely be hard to turn it down. Based on his excellent campaign, plenty of teams would be interested in signing him, though having to surrender at least one draft pick would temper their offers to some degree.
Mariners Claim Gabe Speier From Royals; Outright Casey Sadler, Ryan Borucki
The Mariners announced they have claimed left-hander Gabe Speier off waivers from the Royals. Additionally, they have outrighted lefty Ryan Borucki and right-hander Casey Sadler.
Speier has appeared in each of the last four seasons with the Royals. He hasn’t gotten an extended look over any part of that stretch. This year’s 17 appearances and 19 1/3 innings were career highs, and he’s worked a cumulative 40 innings. Speier has a 3.83 ERA, and his 20.2% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk percentage are right around average.
A former Red Sox draftee, Speier averages around 94 MPH on his sinker but leaned more heavily on his slider. He’s only managed a 6.67 ERA across 112 innings at the Triple-A level, thanks largely to a dismal 14.51 mark over 26 2/3 innings with Omaha this year. Speier was battered for 51 hits and 11 home runs in that stretch, but the M’s will take a shot on a change of scenery. The 27-year-old still has an option year remaining, so the M’s can move him between Seattle and Triple-A Tacoma next year if he holds his spot on the 40-man roster.
Borucki is squeezed off the depth chart in his place. The M’s acquired the southpaw from the Blue Jays this year. The 28-year-old combined for a 5.68 ERA over 25 1/3 innings with the two clubs, only striking out 18.9% of batters faced while struggling to keep the ball in the yard. He was projected for a $1.1MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract, but the M’s evidently determined they weren’t prepared to pay that sum.
Parting with Sadler is a bit more surprising, as the righty was excellent during his last healthy season. He posted a microscopic 0.67 ERA over 40 1/3 innings for the M’s in 2021. He punched out an above-average 25.5% of batters faced and racked up grounders on over three-fifths of batted balls against him. Sadler looked like a high-leverage weapon, but he didn’t pitch in 2022 after undergoing shoulder surgery in Spring Training.
Seattle could’ve retained the 32-year-old by tendering him an arbitration contract, which was projected in the $1.025MM range. They evidently determined not to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter given the injury, and no other club placed a waiver claim despite the chance to retain him at that modest rate.
Both Borucki and Sadler are eligible for minor league free agency, and it’s a virtual lock they’ll each hit the open market in the next few days. Both will serve as experienced depth options for clubs seeking bullpen help, although Sadler may have to demonstrate his health for suitors.
Mariners Acquire Easton McGee From Red Sox
The Mariners have acquired right-hander Easton McGee from the Red Sox for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams.
McGee, who turns 25 next month, was originally selected to a big league roster for the first time about six weeks ago, yet is now in his third organization already. A 2016 draft pick of the Rays, he was added to Tampa’s roster at the end of September but quickly designated for assignment after a single appearance. He was claimed by the Red Sox on the final day of the regular season and didn’t get a chance to pitch for them. Though Boston won’t get any contributions from McGee on the field, they will at least get some Seattle cash out of the deal.
McGee has never been a huge strikeout artist but has often succeeded in the minors by inducing a lot of ground balls. His grounder rate has been around 45-50% in most of his minor league seasons, though it dropped to 39.6% over 107 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2022. That led to McGee posting an ERA of 5.43 on the year, though he’d been better than that in previous campaigns. Another thing he has going for him is control, as he’s never posted a walk rate above 4.8%, apart from his rookie ball debut. For reference, the MLB average in 2022 was 8.2%. McGee still has a full slate of options, meaning the Mariners can keep him stashed in the minors as a depth option for the foreseeable future.
Rangers Exercise Option On José Leclerc
The Rangers announced that they have picked up their option on reliever José Leclerc. He will stick with the team and make a $6MM salary in 2023.
Leclerc had a dominant season in 2018, putting up a 1.56 ERA over 59 appearances while striking out 38.1% of batters faced. That included high leverage work, as he racked up 12 saves and 15 holds that year. It was enough for he and the club to agree to a four-year, $14.75MM extension with a pair of club options for 2023 and 2024. Unfortunately, he scuffled to a 4.33 ERA in 2019 and then missed most of 2020 and 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.
He returned healthy in 2022 and seemed to have a bit of rust at first, posting a 4.37 ERA through early August along with a 20.6% strikeout rate. However, he finished quite strong, posting a 1.44 ERA the rest of the way while striking out 33.7% of batters faced. That also included a return to high leverage situations, with Leclerc earning seven saves and four holds on the season, most of those down the stretch. That latter sample is just 25 innings but more closely resembles his form from 2018.
The Rangers have decided to make a $5.25MM bet that Leclerc’s work over the final couple months of the season can be carried over into 2023. They could have bought him out for $750K but will instead pay him a $6MM salary. If he does indeed stay in strong shape next year, they could retain him again in 2024 with another club option, that one valued at $6.25MM with another $750K buyout.
For the Rangers, their bullpen was middle of the pack, putting up a 3.72 ERA that was 12th in the majors. Matt Moore is set to reach free agency after a successful transition from the rotation to the ‘pen, but the club has prevented the relief corps from being further weakened by keeping Leclerc around.
Red Sox, Rob Refsnyder Avoid Arbitration
The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with outfielder Rob Refsnyder by agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Chad Jennings of The Athletic. Refsnyder will earn a salary of $1.2MM in 2023, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and will be able to earn an extra $100K in performance bonuses, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a slightly higher salary of $1.6MM.
Refsnyder, who turns 32 in March, has bounced around the league for much of his career, spending time with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Rangers and Twins. Minnesota non-tendered him after a 2021 season where he hit .245/.325/.338 for a wRC+ of 88.
The Red Sox signed him to a minor league deal and sent him to Triple-A Worcester to start the year. He got a brief bump to the big leagues in April as a COVID “substitute” but didn’t properly get his contract selected until June. With Worcester, he was hitting an incredible .306/.429/.524 for a wRC+ of 155. After his promotion, he was largely able to duplicate those results at the big league level, finishing the year with a batting line of .307/.384/.497 for a wRC+ of 146. He had only six career home runs in over 600 plate appearances coming into the year and doubled that total by adding six more in just 177 trips to the plate.
That’s still a fairly small sample size but it was enough for the Sox to see if he can carry that over into 2023 with a slight bump in pay. Though Refsnyder has played a lot of infield in his career, Boston kept him in the outfield in 2022 and seems likely to keep him there again next year. Enrique Hernandez could play some infield but is also the best in-house option for the regular center field job at the moment. Alex Verdugo should be pencilled into one of the corners, though the club recently declined their mutual option on Tommy Pham.
Refsnyder has never been much more than a part-time player, with his 177 plate appearances in 2022 actually his career high. Perhaps he’ll have a chance to carve out an everyday role next year if the Red Sox think his results are sustainable, but it’s also possible they acquire another option at some point this offseason and push Refsnyder into the fourth outfielder. But for now, they’ve got a deal at a modest price point on a guy who showed breakout potential and could be sneaky value.
Orioles Claim Daz Cameron
The Orioles have claimed outfielder Daz Cameron off waivers from the Tigers, per announcements from both clubs. The Tigers added that infielder Josh Lester went unclaimed on waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A Toledo.
Cameron, 26 in January, was the No. 37 overall pick by the Astros back in 2015, when current O’s general manager Mike Elias was the scouting director in Houston. The son of three-time Gold Glove winner Mike Cameron, Daz at one point ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at several outlets, including Baseball America and MLB.com, but has endured his share of struggles both in the upper minors and in parts of three big league seasons.
The Tigers acquired Cameron alongside Jake Rogers and Franklin Perez from the Astros in what has become an increasingly lopsided Justin Verlander trade back in 2018. Cameron has logged 73 games with Detroit over the past three seasons but managed only a .201/.266/.330 batting line through 244 trips to the plate. He hasn’t fared all that much better in Triple-A, slashing .236/.324/.398 in 1201 career plate appearances.
Cameron is out of minor league options, so if the Orioles will have to carry him on the Opening Day roster next year or else pass him through waivers at some point between now and then. For the time being, he seemingly bumps fellow righty-swinging outfielder Ryan McKenna (who does have a minor league option remaining) down the depth chart and more squarely back to the Triple-A ranks.
Lester, 28, was a 13th-round pick by Detroit back in 2015 and made his MLB debut in 2022, going hitless with three punchouts in a tiny sample of five plate appearances. He hit for plenty of power in Triple-A this past season, smashing 29 homers and 39 doubles with a .246/.311/.479 batting line in 621 trips to the plate. Lester has experience all over the infield but primarily played first base and in the outfield corners with Toledo in 2022.
Latest On Kodai Senga’s Market
Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga will be looking to sign with an MLB team this winter. He figures to garner plenty of interest based on his track record of success with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He’s already been connected to the Cubs, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds the Blue Jays and Mariners to the mix (Twitter links). Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune lists the Padres as interested, while adding that virtually every other team will be as well.
The widespread interest is easy to understand. Just about every team in baseball could use an upgrade in the starting rotation and Senga seems plenty capable of providing that. Turning 30 in January, he already has a years-long track record of success in Japan. Most recently, he tossed 144 innings in 2022 with a 1.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.
Adding to the interest will be that Senga is a proper free agent and not subject to the posting system. When players come over from Japan or Korea, they will usually be posted by their NPB or KBO team. The MLB team that signs the player would have to pay a fee to the posting team, which is not a cut of the contract. It’s an additional cost that is not subtracted from what the player is owed. However, the Hawks have a policy against posting their players and thus held onto Senga until their control over his services was exhausted. Going into his final year of control, he signed an extension with the team but one that allowed him the opportunity to opt out and become a proper free agent. That means that whoever signs Senga will not have to pay any extra fees to the Hawks.
The Blue Jays make for a fairly logical Senga suitor, given their starting pitching struggles in 2022. The Jays were able to win 92 games on the year but did so largely on the strength of their lineup and in spite of a lopsided starting rotation. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were excellent and provided the club with a strong one-two punch, but that was also offset by poor performances from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.
In the case of Berríos, he kept his ERA steadily between 3.52 and 4.00 for the five previous seasons before seeing it balloon up to 5.23 in his first full season with Toronto. Kikuchi was up-and-down during his time with the Mariners but posted a 5.19 ERA after signing a three-year deal with the Jays. Mitch White, acquired from the Dodgers in a deadline deal when he had a 3.70 ERA, ended up posting a 7.74 figure in his time with Toronto. After Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, swingman Ross Stripling stepped up and seized a rotation job, finishing the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 innings. However, he’s now a free agent, leaving the Jays with a rotation of two solid starters and three question marks.
For the Padres, they also make good sense as a landing spot for Senga since they are seeing two holes open up in their rotation. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are now free agents, leaving the club’s rotation with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. They also subtracted from their depth options at the deadline when MacKenzie Gore was included in the Juan Soto trade. One other wild card is Nick Martinez, who began 2022 in the rotation before getting bumped to the bullpen. He can opt out of his deal and become a free agent though his decision on that matter hasn’t yet been reported publicly.
Darvish and Snell are also set to reach free agency after 2023, leaving Musgrove as potentially the last man standing in 2024. Making a significant addition to the rotation would be sensible for the Padres both in the short term and the long term. They have some internal options to potentially help them out, with Adrian Morejon and Jay Groome on hand. However, Morejon missed most of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and worked in relief when he returned in 2022. The club is reportedly not giving up on him as a starter just yet, but he will likely have to earn his way into a job by proving his health and effectiveness. Groome has shown a lot of potential in the minors but has yet to make his MLB debut and will also likely have to force his way into the picture.
The Mariners are less of an obvious fit than the other two teams here, as they actually seem to have a rotation surplus at the moment. The acquisition and subsequent extension of Luis Castillo gave them a strong front four, including Robbie Ray, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. They also have a pair of good options for the final rotation spot in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Since Flexen was bumped to the bullpen after Castillo came aboard and is now just one year away from free agency, he’s been speculated as a trade candidate. Signing someone like Senga would add to a situation that’s already fairly crowded, though it wouldn’t necessarily be out of character for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to make a move that leads to other moves. He didn’t get the nickname “Trader Jerry” for nothing, after all.
Of course, Senga’s market surely isn’t limited to these three teams. As Acee mentioned, just about every club is likely to have some degree of interest in him, the old adage about never having too much pitching getting heavy usage in the offseason and whatnot. The top of the free agent market for starting pitchers will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. Those three will surely require massive contracts that will price out some teams, leaving Senga as an attractive option on the next tier.
James Paxton Exercises Player Option
The Red Sox announced that lefty James Paxton has triggered his $4MM player option, sticking with the club for 2023.
Paxton, 34, has oscillated back and forth in his career between excellent results and injury setbacks. He was drafted by the Mariners and pitched for them from 2013 to 2018. In those six seasons, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.90 but also never stayed healthy for a full season, topping out at 28 starts and 160 1/3 innings in his last year in Seattle. After being traded to the Yankees prior to 2019, he had another solid season, though again limited by injuries. He made 29 starts for the Yanks and tossed 150 2/3 innings, posting an ERA of 3.82.
The injury issues have only gotten worse since then, as the lefty was limited to just five starts and 20 1/3 innings in 2020 due to a left flexor strain. He reached free agency after that campaign and signed a deal to return to Seattle for 2021. He made only one appearance, throwing just 1 1/3 innings, before being shut down and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.
Going into 2022, his status was uncertain. He was definitely going to miss some time, but it was possible he could be recovered from the TJS in time to contribute to a team down the stretch. He and the Sox agreed to a convoluted deal that reflected that uncertainty. Paxton earned a $6MM salary in 2022, with the convoluted part coming after that. First, the Red Sox would have to decide whether or not to trigger a two-year club option that would pay Paxton $26MM, with a $13MM salary in both 2023 and 2024. If they declined, Paxton would have the ability to trigger a one-year, $4MM option for 2023.
That structure seemed to take into account the wide variance of potential outcomes. If Paxton were able to return and show some of his previous excellent results, the Sox would be rewarded for taking the gamble by getting to lock him down for another two years. If things went the other way, their obligations would be significantly less but Paxton had a safety net in there for himself.
The latter scenario was what ended up happening in 2022, as Paxton suffered a lat strain during his rehab and never made it back to the active roster. Now the southpaw is in the position of having missed an entire season as well as only logging 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons combined. That made it a fairly easy call for Boston to turn down their option as opposed to committing to Paxton for another two years. That decision was indeed confirmed on Monday.
That put the onus on Paxton to decide whether or not to lock in a $4MM guarantee for 2023. On the one hand, after three straight effectively lost seasons, it’s probably difficult to turn down cash on the barrel like that. On the other hand, Paxton got himself a $10MM guarantee last offseason when it was known that he was going to miss at least part of the year. In the end, he decided to opt for the proverbial bird in the hand as opposed to seeing what other creative deals he could find on the open market.
This decision could potentially work out for both parties in 2023, given the uncertainty in the Boston rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill have just become free agents, leaving some big holes in the rotation. Chris Sale declined his opt-out and will remain with the club next year, though he’s tough to rely on right now. Similar to Paxton, various injuries have limited him to 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons. He will surely have a role but might not be able to log over 200 frames like he has done in the past. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the most reliable member for next year, with some wild card options like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello in the mix.
With all of that uncertainty, it’s likely that Paxton will be given a chance to make some starts and re-establish his health before returning to the open market a year from now. For the Sox, they will get a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice that would certainly be worth the modest $4MM figure if Paxton’s health can cooperate.
Orioles Decline Club Option On Jordan Lyles
12:55pm: The Orioles confirmed that Lyles’ option has indeed been declined.
12:47pm: The Orioles have declined their $11MM club option on Jordan Lyles, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll instead be paid a $1MM buyout and become a free agent.
Despite coming off a pair of rough seasons in Texas, Lyles landed a surprisingly strong $7MM guarantee with Baltimore just prior to the league’s implementation of last winter’s 99-day lockout. The veteran righty, who just turned 32 a couple weeks ago, gave the O’s everything they could’ve reasonably hoped for and generally succeeded in turning that modest investment into a bargain.
Through a team-high 179 innings, Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA with an 18.6% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a 40.2% ground-ball rate. The innings were particularly vital for a Baltimore club that was generally relying on young, unproven arms who cycled through the other four rotation spots behind Lyles. The stability he provided the team every fifth day both helped to spare the bullpen and to more effectively manage some of the workloads of an otherwise largely untested group of rotation candidates.
As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored recently, that steadying performance gave the team genuine cause to contemplate picking up Lyles’ option. While a net $10MM commitment (when accounting for the buyout) in the first week of the offseason would be aggressive for a pitcher who’s typically been more of a back-of-the-rotation arm, the O’s are still lacking in rotation certainty and have already pledged to increase payroll in 2023. Doling out a one-year pact to a veteran righty who drew heaps from a young staff that considered him a mentor and clubhouse leader might’ve been a defensible decision — particularly if Lyles were able to replicate his 2022 performance.
Instead, Lyles will return to the open market, likely in search of a multi-year commitment this time around. It stands to reason that, after landing a $7MM guarantee on the heels of a pair of dismal seasons with the Rangers, he might indeed be able to land a two-year deal with a vastly better performance now under his belt. It’s also possible that Lyles could yet return to the O’s — perhaps at a lower annual rate. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun tweets that the Orioles issued a statement that while they preferred to let the pitching market develop rather than exercise Lyles’ option at this time, they’ll remain in touch with him and will not rule out a return at a later date.
Though he’s just 32 years old, Lyles already has more than 11 years of Major League service time under his belt. Selected by the Astros with the No. 38 overall pick back in 2008, he ranked among the sport’s top pitching prospects during his minor league days and ascended to the Majors before he’d even turned 21. It’s arguable that the ‘Stros rushed him to the Majors, as he never really found his footing early on and still has a career track record featuring more valleys than peaks.
Still, Lyles had success with the Padres in 2018, with the Brewers in 2018-19, and now with the Orioles in 2022. He’s been a durable source of solid innings for the bulk of the past five seasons, which should make him an appealing option for teams that, as the 2022 Orioles were, are on the lookout for a veteran rotation stabilizer with a good chance to make 30-plus starts and generally keep the team in the game. That may not sound like a glamorous role, but average innings have value — and teams pay for them every offseason.