Offseason Chat Transcript: Minnesota Twins
MLBTR is holding chats specific to each of MLB’s 30 teams as the offseason kicks off. I published my Offseason Outlook for the Twins a couple weeks back, and will spend an hour today fielding Twins-specific questions. Click here to read the transcript of our Twins-offseason-centric chat.
Yankees To Make Qualifying Offer To Anthony Rizzo
The Yankees are expected to make a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Qualifying offers are due Thursday of this week. Rizzo will then have 10 days to gauge interest around the league before determining whether to accept or decline his QO. If he accepts, he’ll be considered signed as a free agent (and thus unable to be traded until June 15, 2023, without his consent). If he rejects the QO, he’ll become a free agent but will be tied to draft pick compensation — meaning a new team would need to surrender a pick(s) in next summer’s draft in order to sign him.
For Rizzo, declining his $16MM player option was a straightforward decision, even if he hopes to remain in the Bronx. Declining the option put the onus on the team to make this offer — which represents a $3.65MM raise over what he’d have earned by exercising the player option. And, had the team unexpectedly opted not to put forth a QO, he’d surely have been able to earn more than the year and $16MM value of his player option as a free agent with no draft strings attached.
Similarly, it’s an obvious call for the Yankees to make. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 and tied a career-high 32 home runs in just 548 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. That .224 average was obviously a fair bit south of the .243 leaguewide average, but Rizzo’s walk rate and power output were vastly better than that of your average big league hitter.
Rizzo also turned in a better-than-average 18.4% strikeout rate, and with some limitations on infield shifts looming in 2023, it stands to reason that Rizzo could see a few more grounders break through the right side of the infield to help him find a few more singles and boost that average next year. Based on Rizzo’s 2022 output, the Yankees would surely be content to have him accept and return at a slightly larger rate of pay.
Rizzo found a two-year, $32MM deal with an opt-out/player option in free agency this past offseason, and that was on the heels of a .248/.344/.440 campaign that was noticeably less productive than his 2022 season. Granted, he’ll now have a QO with which to contend and is a year older, but he could still parlay the offer into a new two-year deal with the Yanks that could perhaps clock in below the QO rate but at or slightly above the $16MM he’d have otherwise earned.
Teams could very well be reluctant to part with a draft pick (or picks) in order to sign a first baseman to a contract beginning with his age-33 season, but the previously mentioned 10-day window will give Rizzo and his reps the chance to determine how receptive other teams might be to such an arrangement. At the very least, Rizzo’s decision to decline his $16MM player option has netted him the opportunity to lock in an additional $3.65MM in 2023.
Rockies Decline Option On Scott Oberg
The Rockies have declined their $8MM club option on right-hander Scott Oberg, as announced by the MLBPA this morning in their update to the growing number of players who’ve formally reached free agency (Twitter link).
The decision to decline Oberg’s option wasn’t really a decision at all, and while he’s technically a free agent, it’s not at all clear whether Oberg will pursue a return to the mound now or at any point in the future. Chronic blood clots completely derailed the promising right-hander’s career, and Oberg has since taken on a role in the Rockies’ scouting department to remain active with the team. The 32-year-old stated back in May that he was “not in a rush” to pursue a return to pitching, as in making any such attempt he’d be “running into the risk of having to go through all this again.”
The “all this” referred to by Oberg is a harrowing series of surgeries, beginning with a Sept. 2020 operation to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome but culminating with multiple surgeries to remove blood clots from his arm. At one point, he spent a night in the ICU after his hand went numb and the team’s trainers were unable to feel a pulse in his right wrist. Oberg underwent surgery the following day.
The unfortunate health troubles arose just when it appeared as though Oberg was on the cusp of cementing himself as a high-end, late-inning reliever. Oberg’s 2018-19 seasons saw him pitch to a sterling 2.35 ERA with 22 holds, five saves, a 25.5% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate as a key member of the Colorado bullpen. That netted him a three-year, $13MM extension, but the unexpected development of the career-altering — if not career-ending — blood clot issue kept Oberg from taking the mound over the life of that contract.
The Rockies have not yet announced whether Oberg will return as a scout, as a coach or in some other role moving forward, but general manager Bill Schmidt spoke glowingly of him back in May at the time Oberg acknowledged uncertainty about whether he’d again pursue pitching.
“What we’ve talked about is trying to figure out what he wants to do in the game,” Schmidt told Jack Etkin of Rockies Magazine at the time. “We’ll figure out a role for him. He’s a very bright guy. And I think the world of Scottie and want him involved.”
KBO’s Kia Tigers Re-Sign Socrates Brito
The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they’ve re-signed outfielder Socrates Brito to a one-year deal, Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports. Brito will be guaranteed $800K and can earn an additional $300K via incentives. That’s a raise for his second season with the Tigers, after he earned a guaranteed $600K with $300K of incentives in 2022. Brito is represented by the MAS+ Agency.
Brito, 30, enjoyed a strong debut campaign in the KBO this past season when he batted .311/.354/.494 with 17 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and a dozen stolen bases. He walked at a tepid 6.1% clip but also struck out in only 14.6% of his plate appearances.
A longtime Diamondbacks prospect, Brito has appeared in parts of four Major League seasons. He’s managed just a .179/.216/.309 slash in 218 plate appearances between the D-backs and Blue Jays, but Brito has been much more productive with regular playing time both in the KBO and in Triple-A, where he’s a lifetime .287/.339/.467 hitter in just 1960 plate appearances. He’s played primarily right field (5126 innings) and center field (4883 innings) in his professional career, with the Tigers opting to deploy him as their primary center fielder this past season.
If Brito continues to thrive against KBO pitching and play display the ability to play a competent center field, he’s young enough that he could yet engineer a big league return, but for now he’ll focus on replicating his 2022 success next season.
Eric Hosmer Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause
In one of the most obvious opt-out decisions in recent memory, Red Sox first baseman Eric Hosmer will forgo his opportunity to return to the open market, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s now locked into the final three years and $39MM of the contract, although the Sox are only on the hook for the league minimum in each of the next three seasons. The Padres are paying the remainder of Hosmer’s salary each season under the terms of the deadline trade that sent him to Boston.
The eight-year, $144MM contract Hosmer signed with San Diego prior to the 2018 season went south almost immediately. A then-27-year-old Hosmer posted a massive .318/.385/.498 slash and swatted 25 homers for the second consecutive season in 2017 — his final year with the Royals, who originally drafted him No. 3 overall in 2008. That led to the aforementioned eight-year deal for Hosmer, but his offensive production cratered in year one with the Friars, as he hit just .253/.322/.398 in his first year with the team.
Over the first five seasons of that nine-figure contract, Hosmer has been exactly average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. He’s hit .265/.325/.409 and averaged 18 home runs and 30 doubles per 162 games played. Hosmer hasn’t necessarily been a bad hitter, but his $18MM annual salary was promised to him under the assumption that he’d continue on as a well above-average, middle-of-the-order hitter.
That simply hasn’t been the case, due in large part to the fact that Hosmer’s bloated ground-ball rate with the Royals actually got even higher with the Friars. Since signing in San Diego, 56.5% of Hosmer’s batted balls have been hit on the ground — the fourth-highest mark among 315 qualified MLB hitters in that stretch. Perhaps the limitations on infield shifts that are coming in 2023 will help Hosmer in that regard, but his repeated inability to elevate the ball will continue to suppress his power output.
The Padres traded Hosmer and a pair of minor leaguers (Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson) to the Red Sox in exchange for former first-round pick Jay Groome, agreeing to pay Hosmer’s salary down to the league minimum as part of the contract. Hosmer also was granted a full no-trade clause as part of that deal, so he’ll have the final say on whether he’ll remain in Boston through 2025 unless the Sox ultimately release him. For now, he’ll give the Red Sox a cost-effective veteran first baseman or perhaps designated hitter, dependent on when the team is ready to give top prospect Triston Casas a full-time look in the big leagues.
The Opener: Angels, Senga, Options And QO Deadline
As MLB’s offseason kicks into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. Angels Won’t Trade Ohtani, But What Will They Do?
Few teams around baseball face as much uncertainty this offseason as the Angels do. Owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team, and rumors of Shohei Ohtani being traded this offseason have swirled practically since the moment the trade deadline passed. Yesterday GM Perry Minasian announced that the team would not be fielding offers on Ohtani and he would remain with the team through Opening Day. With Ohtani set to test the free agent market after the 2023 season, the Angels will no doubt try to remain competitive, but a 73-89 showing in 2022 leaves Anaheim with a lot of work to do this offseason. Minasian notes that multi-year deals are on the table in spite of the club’s recent tendency toward one year agreements in previous offseasons, though it’s fair to wonder if Moreno would make major, long-term additions to a club’s payroll in the months running up to a sale. Starting pitching isn’t quite as big of a need as it has been in previous years due to the emergence of youngsters like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers, but another arm for the middle of the rotation likely ought to still be a priority. Perhaps the biggest need the Angels will have to address this offseason if they want to compete in 2023 is the bullpen, where Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup disappointed last year, and closer Raisel Iglesias was moved to the Braves at the trade deadline. Almost as important is addressing the infield; Luis Rengifo looked like a serviceable regular in 2022, but both David Fletcher and Jared Walsh struggled in 2023, and Anthony Rendon‘s injury woes in recent seasons leave third base up in the air as well. A righty-hitting complement to Walsh and a shortstop-capable bat could be other sensible additions to the Angels offseason shopping list.
2. Senga’s Market Begins To Develop
While the vast majority of free agency is still tied up in their club’s exclusive negotiating window, international free agent Koudai Senga faces no such restrictions, and a potential suitor has already emerged: the Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmeyer talked with Senga’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who noted the Cubs had been in contact with him about Senga and that Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, another Wolfe client, has “loved” his experience in Chicago thus far. Rumors about the Cubs having interest in Senga have percolated for months, and with plenty of space available in the rotation alongside Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks, they may be an attractive destination for Senga.
3. Options, Qualifying Offer Deadline Looms
As Mark Polishuk noted in his offseason preview earlier this week, the deadline for option decisions, as well as for teams to extend the Qualifying Offer to their pending free agents, is this Thursday, November 10th. Many option decisions have already been made, with Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura among those who have most recently hit the free agent market officially. More option decisions remain, however. One particularly interesting example is James Paxton, whose dilemma Anthony Franco discussed yesterday. Anthony also previewed the upcoming QO decisions last week, with the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Mitch Haniger among the most interesting borderline cases. For a refresher on what draft picks are at stake with regards to the QO, you can check out Tim Dierkes’s post on the matter.
Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura
As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.
The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.
The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.
Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.
There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.
The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.
Bloom: Bogaerts Remains Red Sox’s Preferred Option At Shortstop
The Red Sox and star shortstop Xander Bogaerts didn’t agree on a contract extension before the start of the offseason. The four-time All-Star officially opted out of the final three years on his deal with Boston this morning, sending him to the open market for the first time in his career. The Sox still have exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts through Thursday, but there’s little question at this point his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon be in contact with other teams.
Speaking with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this evening, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that retaining Bogaerts would be the Sox’s ideal choice for addressing shortstop. “We want him here. He makes us better,” Bloom said. “We respect his right to exercise [the opt-out] and to explore the market. We want him back and we will stay engaged with him.”
Boston’s baseball operations leader acknowledged the presence of a few other star free agent shortstops — namely Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. While Bloom suggested the team would explore the market for potential alternatives, he didn’t mince words when expressing the front office’s overall preference. “He’s our first choice. That’s not going to change,” he told reporters. “Part of our jobs is to explore every option to field a contending team next year and put together a really good group. We need to explore every possible way to do that, but Bogey’s our first choice.”
Bloom indicated he believes either Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández would be capable of playing shortstop if necessary but made clear the team would prefer to keep them at other positions to keep Bogaerts around. Story moved to second base this past season. While he’d played his whole career at shortstop with the Rockies prior to this year, Story has spoken about his desire to stick at the keystone if it means the Red Sox re-sign their longtime shortstop. That’d presumably keep Hernández in center field primarily, with the lackluster free agent market at that position seemingly playing a role in Boston’s decision to keep the utilityman around with a $10MM contract extension on Labor Day.
Of course, this is far from the first time Sox’s brass has gone on record about their affinity for Bogaerts. Immediately after the season, Bloom called re-signing the four-time Silver Slugger winner before free agency the team’s top priority. That obviously didn’t happen, and Speier writes that while the sides did have some discussions after the season wrapped up, it became clear fairly early on they wouldn’t get a deal done before the opt-out date.
Boston is sure to kick off the offseason by tagging Bogaerts with a qualifying offer. They’d receive only minimal compensation if he were to sign elsewhere, however. Because the Red Sox exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this past season, they’d add only an extra draft choice after the fourth round. Conversely, signing a player like Turner or Swanson who rejects a qualifying offer from another team — Correa is ineligible to receive a QO because he’s previously received one in his career — would lead Boston to forfeit both their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft and $1MM in international signing bonus space. Certainly, the front office will weigh their long-term projections of each of the top free agents more heavily than the draft choices in deciding how to proceed, but they’d pay a heavier draft penalty for adding either Swanson or Turner than they would for retaining Bogaerts (and thus forfeiting the compensatory pick).
Bogaerts heads into his age-31 season coming off a .307/.377/.456 mark through 631 plate appearances. His power production dipped relative to his best seasons, but he hit above .285 with an on-base percentage at .360 or better for the fifth straight year. He also earned slightly above-average marks from public defensive metrics, an important step towards quieting some concerns he’ll have to move off shortstop in the relatively near future.
Hall Of Fame Announces 2023 Era Committee Candidates
The National Baseball Hall of Fame this morning announced the eight players who’ll be considered for induction by the Era Committee, formerly known as the Veteran’s Committee. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy and Rafael Palmeiro will each be under consideration. Any player who receives votes from 12 members of the 16-person panel will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, along with anyone selected by 75% of the voters on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot.
Bonds, Clemens and Schilling are the most notable and long-discussed of the group. All three fell off the writers’ ballot last winter after failing to reach 75% of the vote for a 10th consecutive year, thereby exhausting their eligibility. They’ll immediately garner renewed consideration, this time from the Era Committee after their progress on the writers’ ballot stalled — or in Schilling’s case, dropped after he attempted to remove himself from the ballot as his support dwindled following a number of controversial public statements — towards the end of their time under consideration.
Clemens and Bonds, of course, have slam-dunk Hall of Fame statistics but were left outside the Hall due to their ties to performance-enhancing drugs. Both were named as alleged steroid users in the 2007 Mitchell Report. Palmeiro’s HOF candidacy was also derailed by PED ties, in his case a 2005 suspension for a failed test that came a few months after he denied ever taking steroids during Congressional testimony the preceding spring. Palmeiro spent four seasons on the writers’ ballot but fell off in 2014 after receiving less than the 5% of the vote needed to remain under consideration.
Belle lasted two seasons on the writers’ ballot, falling below the 5% threshold in 2007. Mattingly, McGriff and Murphy all spent the maximum allotted time under consideration by the BBWAA but never crossed the necessary 75% threshold. Mattingly’s vote share peaked at 28.2% in his first year on the ballot. Murphy topped out at 23.2%, while McGriff’s vote share hit its apex at 39.8% during his final year in 2019.
The Era Committee’s purpose is to induct players who may have slipped through the cracks on the BBWAA ballot. It has historically cast a wider net for induction than has the Writers Association. This year’s crop of players are part of the “Contemporary Baseball Era,” which considers players whose primary contributions to the sport have come since 1980. Voting will be conducted on December 4.
Red Sox To Decline Option On James Paxton; Paxton Yet To Decide On Player Option
The Red Sox are declining their two-year, $26MM team option on left-hander James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The southpaw will now have to decide whether to trigger a $4MM player option to return to Boston or if he wishes to test the open market.
This was a no-brainer for the Red Sox, as the 6’4″ hurler missed the entire 2022 season. Paxton blew out his elbow during his first start of the 2021 season with the Mariners, requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him the rest of the year, but the Sox signed him to a complex $10MM guarantee last winter. The deal paid him $6MM for this past season and guaranteed him the option to lock in a $4MM salary for next year if Boston didn’t trigger a pair of $13MM club options covering the 2023-24 campaigns.
It was a high-risk, high-upside dice roll for the Red Sox that hasn’t panned out. Boston had hoped Paxton would be able to return late in the season and contribute to a possible playoff push, but he suffered a Grade 2 lat tear while rehabbing and didn’t wind up throwing a big league pitch. With all of 1 1/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, there was no chance the Red Sox would commit an additional $26MM on a bounceback.
Paxton’s now left with an interesting decision. He may be hard-pressed to find a $4MM base salary on the open market after two essentially lost seasons, but it’s possible he declines the option in search of an incentive-laden deal. Even if the 34-year-old doesn’t find an offer that quite matches the $4MM guarantee he’d be foregoing, he could seek out a deal that contains additional bonuses based on his number of innings pitched or starts in 2023 if he’s confident he’ll be healthy by Spring Training.