Mariners Open To Adding Another Outfielder
The Mariners have already taken steps to reshuffle their outfield in the offseason’s early going. They landed two-time Silver Slugger award winner Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays for high-leverage reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko, then shipped out former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel.
More changes could be on the horizon, as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) the team was open to bringing in another outfielder. The Seattle baseball ops leader unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets but suggested the club was content to wait things out and identify the right fit.
“We do have more than one target,” Dipoto told reporters. “There are a handful of players that fit us that we feel good about especially as it pertains to outfielders. We feel like there’s still a market that is more robust. And if we’re just patient, we’re going to find the player that suits our roster the best.”
That doesn’t sound like a declaration the M’s are planning a run at top free agent Aaron Judge, and defending Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez reduces the urgency to go after center fielder Brandon Nimmo. The Mariners could theoretically pursue Nimmo with an eye towards pushing him to the corner opposite Hernández, but there are plenty of other teams with direct needs in center field. With the bidding for the former Met likely to push over nine figures (and cost the signing team a draft choice), the next tier down seems more plausible for Dipoto and his staff.
Among that group is Mitch Haniger, who’s a free agent after six seasons in Seattle. The M’s opted not to tag with him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, clearly unwilling to commit him a salary approaching $20MM for next year. A multi-year deal at a lower annual term still seems a possibility, and general manager Justin Hollander told Divish and others the club remains in contact with Haniger’s representatives at Apex Baseball.
Other free agent possibilities include Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger and Washington native Michael Conforto, who’s looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter after a season lost to shoulder surgery. Bellinger and Conforto figure to land shorter-term, bounceback deals while Benintendi and Profar are virtually certain to land multi-year commitments. Dipoto and his staff are among the most aggressive in scouring the trade market as well, and a number of corner bats could plausibly be discussed. Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Jake McCarthy are among the players who’ve been mentioned as at least speculative trade candidates this offseason. Bryan Reynolds and Randy Arozarena are less likely to move — particularly Reynolds, whom the Pirates have been reluctant to deal for years — but are sure to draw calls from other teams based on their multiple seasons of arbitration control and consistently strong performances.
The Mariners are firmly in win-now mode after a second straight 90-win season that snapped their 21-year playoff drought. Dipoto, Hollander and company have been and will continue to be aggressive in building around their excellent young core, but it’s worth noting they’re not devoid of in-house options who could play their way into a regular role alongside Hernández and Rodríguez.
Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell haven’t found much success at the MLB level, but they’re each former top prospects who are still in their mid-20’s and coming off quality performances in Triple-A. Dipoto name-checked both players, as well as prospect Cade Marlowe, as internal candidates to take the next step. The M’s could entertain dealing Kelenic or Trammell for a lower-upside but more stable veteran bat as well, and Divish reports Seattle “shopped Kelenic extensively” at last summer’s trade deadline.
There’s also the presence of Jesse Winker, who was acquired last spring in the deal that saw Seattle assume the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract. Winker was the headliner of the trade from the M’s perspective, but Suárez surprisingly outperformed him in their first season in the Pacific Northwest. Under contract for $8.25MM in his final year of club control, Winker won’t have immense trade appeal coming off a .219/.344/.344 showing.
The M’s could elect to hold him and hope for better results, but they’ve reportedly floated his name early this offseason. Winker played dreadful defense in left field, and Divish has previously suggested Winker’s lack of improvement on that side of the ball played a role in him falling into some disfavor in the Seattle clubhouse. At his best, the left-handed hitter has shown he’s capable of impact offensive production against righty pitching, but the front office will have to decide whether pairing an outside addition with a change of scenery for Winker is a better fit heading into 2023.
Red Sox Sign Joely Rodriguez
11:49am: Rodriguez will earn a $500K bonus for reaching each of 30, 60, 90 and 120 days on the active roster in 2023, MLBTR has learned.
10:28am: The Red Sox have signed left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season, per a team announcement. Rodriguez, a client of L.A. Sports Management, will be guaranteed $2MM in the form of a $1.5MM salary in 2023 and a $500K buyout on a $4.25MM club option for the 2024 campaign, Chad Jennings of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).
MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Rodriguez can earn up to $2MM of bonuses based on time spent on the active roster in 2023, plus $250K in each season of the deal based on games pitched. In all, it can max out at $8.25MM over a two-year term. Boston’s 40-man roster is now up to 39 players.
Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Pirates as a teenager back in 2009, Rodriguez bounced to four different organizations before signing with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball prior to the 2018 season. A strong two-year run with the Dragons (1.85 ERA in 87 2/3 innings) landed Rodriguez a big league deal to return to the Rangers.
Twice traded since that time, the now-31-year-old Rodriguez has spent a season with Texas and both New York clubs, pitching to a combined 4.28 ERA but more encouraging secondary marks. He’s averaged 94 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 25.5% of his opponents and logged a huge 55.7% ground-ball rate. Despite a higher-than-average 10.3% walk rate, fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.14) and SIERA (3.51) all feel that Rodriguez has pitched a fair bit better than his more rudimentary ERA would otherwise indicate.
In particular, Rodriguez has excelled at limiting hard contact. Last year’s paltry 85.3 mph average exit velocity, 3.8% barrel rate and 31.8% hard-hit rate were all among the lowest marks in the league. Statcast ranked each in the 91st percentile or better among big league pitchers. Rodriguez carried a notable platoon split with the Yankees in 2021 but, upon ramping up his usage of a sinker/changeup combination (at the expense of most of his four-seamers and sliders) was generally tough on lefties and righties alike in 2022. Left-handers hit .233/.320/.326 against him, while righties were actually even worse, at .220/.325/.300.
If Rodriguez can sustain those gains against right-handed opponents and simultaneously rein in his command a bit — he walked 12% of hitters in 2022 but just 8.7% in 2021 — there’s potential for him to elevate his profile and prove to be a quality bargain on this relatively modest deal.
Rodriguez will step into a Boston bullpen that had otherwise been slated to include just one lefty: Josh Taylor. It’s possible that Darwinzon Hernandez or one of recently selected Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter could eventually work their way into the mix, but left-handed bullpen help was a fairly clear area of need for the Sox. They’ve now made at least one move to address that — though others could certainly transpire — and done so in affordable fashion. With Rodriguez on the books, Boston’s payroll sits at a projected $133.8MM, while their luxury-tax ledger is just north of $153MM.
Rangers Name Mike Maddux Pitching Coach, Hire Dayton Moore As Senior Advisor To Baseball Operations
The Rangers on Wednesday announced that they’ve brought veteran coach Mike Maddux back for a second stint as the team’s pitching coach. The team also announced that longtime Royals general manager Dayton Moore has joined the organization as a senior advisor to the baseball operations department.
Maddux, 61, is among the game’s most experienced and respected pitching coaches. A veteran of 15 Major League seasons himself — and the older brother of Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, of course — the elder Maddux brother retired in 2000 and has served as a Major League pitching coach every year since 2003. Maddux enjoyed a six-year stint with the Brewers before spending seven years as the Rangers’ pitching coach, two as the Nationals’ pitching coach and most recently, five seasons as the Cardinals’ pitching coach.
Maddux’s return is the latest step in an organizational shakeup that saw manager Chris Woodward and longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels ousted over the summer. Veteran manager Bruce Bochy was recently named the new skipper in Arlington, with former big league outfielder Will Venable — who’s been fast rising through the MLB coaching ranks — brought aboard as the organization’s “associate manager.” The Rangers announced back in early October that co-pitching coaches Doug Mathis and Brendan Sagara would not return next season, and in recent days, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News had reported that Maddux was emerging as a prime candidate to reprise the role he held in Texas from 2009-15.
Turning to Moore, his appointment as a senior advisor to general manager Chris Young will give Young some valuable experience from which to draw. Young only retired as a pitcher himself following the 2017 season, and after a quick stop working in the league’s central offices, he was tabbed as the Rangers’ GM, working underneath Daniels.
That arrangement lasted fewer than three seasons, and Young is now in the midst of his first offseason as the primary baseball operations decision-maker with any organization. He’ll still have autonomy when it comes to roster decisions, of course, but Moore can speak from a place of experience while providing guidance. The pair are already familiar with one another, as Young spent the final three seasons of his 13-year Major League career pitching for Moore’s Royals.
In a situation not entirely dissimilar to the Rangers’ front office shakeup, Moore found himself relieved from his duties as Kansas City’s president of baseball operations just a few months ago. Daniels had been running baseball operations for Texas since 2005, while Moore was tabbed as Kansas City’s GM a year later, in 2006. Both were replaced by in-house general managers who were ascending to that post for the first time: Young in Texas, and longtime Moore lieutenant J.J. Picollo in Kansas City. Daniels has since been named a senior advisor to the Rays’ baseball operations department.
It’s feasible that Moore will again pursue a position of greater prominence in a different organization’s front office, but for the time being, he’ll bring more than 30 years of scouting acumen and nearly 20 years of experience running his own baseball operations outfit to the Rangers as they gear up for what’s expected to be a second consecutive aggressive offseason. Texas cannonballed into the deep end of the free-agent pool last offseason, signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray for a combined $556MM. Now, after vastly overhauling their front office and dugout leadership, they’re expected to aggressively pursue top-of-the-market starting pitching and have already been connected to the likes of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Houston Astros
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held an Astros-specific chat regarding the team’s offseason outlook. Click here to view the chat transcript.
Athletics, Pablo Reyes Agree To Minor League Deal
The A’s have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Pablo Reyes, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Presumably, the deal includes an invite to Major League Spring Training, though the team has not formally announced the deal or indicated as much. Reyes was outrighted by the Brewers last month and subsequently became a minor league free agent.
Reyes, 29, has appeared in parts of four Major League seasons, logging time with the 2018-19 Pirates and the 2021-22 Brewers. He’s appeared in 147 Major League games, tallied 323 trips to the plate and posted a combined .238/.307/.361 batting line in that time. Along the way, he’s played 355 innings in the outfield (mostly in the corners but 68 innings in center), 171 innings at third base, 54 innings at second base and 47 innings at shortstop.
While Reyes received just 16 Major League plate appearances in 2022 (going 4-for-15 in that short stint), he enjoyed a solid year in Triple-A Nashville, batting .273/.348/.439 (110 wRC+) with 11 home runs, 27 doubles, a pair of triples and 15 steals. Reyes has fanned in 15.5% of his Triple-A plate appearances across the past two seasons, showing a good knack for contact, and has also walked at a 9.2% rate.
Reyes is out of minor league options, so if he earns a spot on the big league roster with the A’s at any point, he’ll need to stick or else be placed on waivers before he can be sent back to the minors. He’ll have to vie for a job in Spring Training and perhaps early in the season in Triple-A, but his right-handed bat could be a natural complement to a platoon-heavy A’s club that’ll feature lefties like Tony Kemp, Seth Brown and perhaps some combination of Vimael Machin, Cody Thomas, Cal Stevenson and Conner Capel. In 134 Major League plate appearances against lefties, Reyes is a .276/.336/.480 hitter.
The Opener: Thanksgiving Signings, Harper, Chats, Free Agent List
As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:
1. Will Any Deals Get Closed Before The Holiday?
The days leading up to Thanksgiving have, in previous offseasons, seen a small spike in activity, as free agents who are looking to have their new team settled ahead of the holidays try to push deals across the finish line. In the past few offseasons, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Loup, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, Yan Gomes and Charlie Morton have all agreed to terms within 48 hours of Thanksgiving. This can apply to the trade market as well, as the Angels’ acquisition of Hunter Renfroe just last night shows. In addition to last night’s deal, recent offseasons have seen the Rockies and Reds connect on a swap of relievers and the Padres and Brewers complete a four-player trade involving all big leaguers, among other smaller trade agreements.
2. Bryce Harper‘s Surgery Is Today
Recently extended Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced last week that star outfielder Bryce Harper will undergo surgery on his elbow today to repair a damaged ulnar collateral ligament. This is of particular note because the team and doctors alike won’t be certain whether Harper requires a full ligament replacement (Tommy John surgery) or an internal brace procedure until he actually goes under the knife, leaving his timetable for return uncertain to this point. Once today’s procedure is complete, there will be far more clarity on how much time Harper can be expected to miss in 2023.
3. A Few MLBTR Features
The final two Offseason Chats will be held today, putting the finishing touches on MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a team-specific chat for the reigning World Series champion Astros at 11am CT today, while Steve Adams will hosting an A’s-specific chat later in the day at 2pm CT. Astros fans can click here to leave a question for Anthony in advance and, in the meantime, check out the Astros’ Offseason Outlook. A’s fans can leave a question in advance here and go back through Oakland’s Offseason Outlook for a refresher, if you like. Regardless of which club you follow, if you’re looking ahead to the meat of your team’s offseason, it’s also worth noting that our 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List has been updated to include last week’s wave of non-tendered players. You can check that out for a comprehensive look at who’s available on a position-by-position basis. (Note: the incorrect link to the free agent list has been updated; apologies on the error)
Angels Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Brewers
The Angels’ early-offseason aggressiveness continues. The Halos announced the acquisition of outfielder Hunter Renfroe from the Brewers on Tuesday night. Pitchers Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero and Adam Seminaris head to Milwaukee in return.
It’s the third early strike of the offseason for the Halos, who’ve already signed starter Tyler Anderson to a three-year free agent deal and acquired infielder Gio Urshela in a trade with the Twins. Now, they take a step towards fixing an outfield that had a major question mark alongside Mike Trout and Taylor Ward.
Renfroe should solidify the corner outfield spot opposite Ward. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of the past two seasons, with strikingly similar production for the Red Sox in 2021 and Brewers this year. The former first-rounder has combined for 60 home runs over the last two seasons, following up a 31-homer showing with the Sox with 29 more in Milwaukee. He had an identical .315 on-base percentage in each year but more than offset that modest number with big power production.
The right-handed hitter has hit between .255 and .260 in each of the last two years while slugging around .500 both seasons. He has a cumulative .257/.315/.496 line in just under 1100 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. His 22.9% strikeout rate is right around average, while he’s walked at a slightly below-average 7.6% clip. He’s a lower-OBP slugger who has particularly decimated left-handed opposition. Renfroe carries a .269/.357/.508 line over that stretch while holding the platoon advantage. He’s had starker on-base concerns but hit for enough power to remain a decent option against right-handed pitching (.252/.292/.491).
That power production is Renfroe’s calling card, but he’s also a viable defender. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him right around league average in right field in each of the last three seasons. Statcast’s range-based metric has Renfroe a few runs below average annually, but he compensates for his fringy athleticism with top-tier arm strength. He’s picked up double-digit assists in each of the last two years, and he leads all MLB outfielders with 27 baserunners cut down in that time.
Renfroe’s excellent arm strength has kept him primarily in right field over the past few years, although he did log a number of innings in left earlier in his career. If he steps into right field at Angel Stadium, that’d push Ward over to left field. Former top prospect Jo Adell now looks as if he’ll be relegated to fourth outfield/bench duty after beginning his career with a .215/.259/.356 showing in roughly one full season’s worth of games. Adell is still just 23 years old and coming off a solid year in Triple-A Salt Lake, but the Angels don’t appear prepared to count on him for a regular role as they look to vault their way into the playoff picture in 2023.
As with last week’s Urshela trade, the Renfroe acquisition is about deepening the lineup with a productive but not elite veteran for a season. Renfroe turns 31 in January and is in his final season of club control. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $11.2MM salary, and he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. That’s a reasonable sum for a player of this caliber, but one moderately expensive season of arbitration control over a lower-OBP corner slugger isn’t teeming with trade value. Renfroe is the second player of that ilk dealt in as many weeks.
The Blue Jays sent Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. That trade came as a surprise to a number of Toronto fans, but each of Swanson and Macko are arguably more appealing players than any of the trio of pitchers Milwaukee received in this swap. Hernández is a better hitter than Renfroe is, but the gap between the former’s .282/.332/.508 line over the past two seasons and the latter’s production isn’t all that dramatic. Nevertheless, Renfroe has had a hard time sticking in any one spot as his price tag has escalated throughout his arbitration seasons. The Halos will be his fifth team in as many years, as he’s successively played for the Padres, Rays, Red Sox and Brewers going back to 2019.
Adding his projected arbitration salary pushes the Halos’ estimated 2023 payroll up to around $192MM, per Roster Resource. That’d be the highest mark in franchise history, narrowly topping their approximate $189MM figure from this past season. They’re up to roughly $206MM in luxury tax commitments, around $27MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. The franchise’s spending capacity this winter has been in question with owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the franchise. There’s still no indication the club is willing to approach luxury tax territory, but the acquisitions of Anderson, Urshela and Renfroe have tacked on an estimated $31.9MM in 2023 spending. The latter two players represent one-year investments, but it seems Moreno is affording general manager Perry Minasian and his group some leeway to add to the roster in advance of the club’s final season of control over defending AL MVP runner-up Shohei Ohtani.
The Brewers add a trio of pitchers, two of whom already have big league experience. Junk is a former 22nd-round pick of the Yankees. He went to the Halos in the 2021 deadline deal that sent southpaw Andrew Heaney to the Bronx. The right-hander has pitched in seven MLB games over the past two seasons, starting six. He’s allowed a 4.74 ERA through 24 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 19.4% of opponents but posting a sterling 4.4% walk rate.
Junk, 27 in January, leans primarily on a low-80s slider which prospect evaluators suggest could be an above-average pitch. He has decent spin on his 92-93 MPH four-seam but hasn’t cemented himself on a big league staff to this point. He spent most of this year on optional assignment to Salt Lake, where he posted a 4.64 ERA through 73 2/3 innings as a starter in a hitter-friendly environment. His 22.1% strikeout percentage was a touch below average, but he only walked 5.8% of opponents. The Seattle University product still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and can bounce between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville as rotation or middle relief depth.
Peguero, on the other hand, is a pure reliever. The righty debuted with three appearances as a COVID replacement late in the 2021 season. He earned a permanent 40-man roster spot last offseason and appeared in 13 games this year. Tasked with low-leverage innings, Peguero put up a 7.27 ERA across 17 1/3 innings. He only struck out 15.6% of opponents but got swinging strikes on a more impressive 12% of his total pitches. The Dominican Republic native induced grounders on roughly half the batted balls he surrendered in the majors.
He also had an excellent year in Salt Lake, where he tossed 44 1/3 frames of 2.84 ERA ball. Peguero fanned 27.5% of batters faced against a quality 7.1% walk rate and racked up grounders at a huge 57.5% clip. Like Junk, Peguero leaned primarily on a slider during his MLB look, although he throws much harder. Peguero’s slider checked in at 91 MPH on average while his fastball sat just north of 96. He turns 26 in March and also has two options remaining, so the Brewers can deploy him as an up-and-down middle reliever while hoping he can translate his Triple-A success against big league opponents.
Seminaris went in the fifth round in the 2020 draft out of Long Beach State. A 6’0″ southpaw, he wasn’t ranked among the top 30 prospects in the Anaheim system at Baseball America. He traversed three minor league levels this year, showing well at High-A against younger competition but struggling as he climbed the minor league ladder. Altogether, he worked 101 2/3 frames of 3.54 ERA ball with a 22.1% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk percentage. He’s not on the 40-man roster but will have to be added by the end of the 2023 season or be exposed in the Rule 5 draft.
While Milwaukee clearly likes all three mid-20’s hurlers, they’re each flexible depth options. Surely, a key motivator in the deal was reallocating Renfroe’s hefty arbitration projection. Slashing payroll wasn’t the sole impetus for the trade — the Brewers could’ve simply non-tendered Renfroe last week if they were committed to getting his money off the books — but GM Matt Arnold and his staff elected to clear some payroll room while bringing in a few depth arms of note.
The Brewers are projected for a salary around $115MM at Roster Resource thanks largely to an arbitration class that still includes Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames, among others. That’s about $17MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark, and more roster shuffling figures to be on the horizon. Dealing a complementary player like Renfroe doesn’t suggest the Brewers are about to flip any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames, but Milwaukee could consider moving second baseman Kolten Wong or a depth starter like Adrian Houser or Eric Lauer. They’ve already drawn some interest from the Mariners on Wong and are sure to contemplate a number of ways to try to balance the present and the future.
Milwaukee could now dip into the lower tiers of the free agent corner outfield market to backfill for Renfroe’s absence, with Tyrone Taylor standing as the current favorite for playing time alongside Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell in the outfield. Highly-touted young players like Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could play their way into the mix midseason, but it’d be a surprise if the Brewers didn’t add at least one veteran outfielder before Opening Day.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Charlie Barnes Re-Signs With KBO’s Lotte Giants
The Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization have agreed to a new contract with left-hander Charlie Barnes, as first reported by Ji-heon Pae (on Twitter). It’s a one-year deal that’ll guarantee the former big league hurler $1.2MM, MLBTR has learned. That’ll take the form of a $350K signing bonus and an $850K salary, and the contract also contains $50K in potential incentives.
Barnes returns for a second season with the Giants, who also re-signed outfielder Zach Reks last week. The Clemson product signed last offseason on a $610K guarantee, and he’ll nearly double that salary in year two after a strong debut campaign. Barnes took 31 turns through the Giants’ rotation, tossing 186 innings of 3.62 ERA ball. He punched out 20.3% of opponents and limited walks to an excellent 6% clip. Perhaps most impressively, he kept the ball on the ground for more than three-fifths of batted balls he surrendered, helping him limit home runs to just a 0.39 rate per nine innings.
That marked Barnes’ most extended action at the highest level of a country’s professional ranks. He logged a bit of major league time with the Twins prior to heading to South Korea. Barnes pitched in nine games (eight starts) for Minnesota in 2021, allowing a 5.92 ERA through 38 innings. The former fourth-round draftee had posted a 3.71 ERA over parts of four seasons in the Minnesota farm system.
Barnes is 27 years old. There have been a few examples — most prominently Merrill Kelly and Chris Flexen — of pitchers who’d been on the fringe of a 40-man roster getting a longer leash at the MLB level after finding success in South Korea. Veteran righty Drew Rucinski is hoping to be next in that line this winter. Barnes is certainly young enough to have a chance at following that path eventually, but he’ll focus his efforts for the time being on looking to help the Giants bounce back from a 64-76 campaign.
MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency
Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.
Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.
As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”
To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.
The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.
That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.
Do The Royals Have A Problem Behind The Plate?
Since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals have been on a downward trajectory. The went 81-81 in 2016 and have been below .500 in the five seasons after that. After rebuilding the farm for a few years, the club has been trying to return to contention over the past couple of seasons by giving out some aggressive contracts, at least by their modest standards. It hasn’t worked out, with the past two seasons resulting in a fourth and fifth place finish in the weak AL Central.
A significant factor in the club’s results has been that many of their top pitching prospects have struggled in the majors. Brady Singer seems to be front of the pack now, despite posting a 4.91 ERA in 2021 and getting demoted to the bullpen to start 2022. He wound up back in the rotation and finished the season with a 3.23 ERA. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall pick in 2019 but he has a 5.32 ERA in 199 2/3 innings thus far in the big leagues. Kris Bubic was taken 40th overall in 2018 but has a 4.89 ERA in over 300 MLB innings thus far. Jackson Kowar was selected 33rd overall in 2018 but has only been given 46 innings of action so far, in which he has a 10.76 ERA. Those are just a few examples of many.
For a team that doesn’t usually spend on marquee free agents, developing their own prospects into useful major leaguers is essential to their success and this is something they will need to get to the bottom of. Finding an explanation for all this likely won’t lead to a simple answer. It’s possible it has something to do with the scouting that led to those players being drafted in the first place, although public prospect evaluators have liked each of those players quite a bit. Perhaps it’s related to coaching or development in the minors. But it’s also possible the club’s major league catching is playing a role.
Salvador Perez has been the club’s catcher for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and firmly securing the job in 2013. He was the primary backstop as the club went to the World Series in consecutive years, winning the second trip in 2015. As much of that championship core moved on, he remained as the face of the franchise and unofficial captain. While he’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past three seasons, his defense is another matter.
Defensive Runs Saved has placed Perez at -5 in 2021 and -4 in 2022. Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment gave him a -14.8 last year, which was last in the majors, and -14.1 this year, which was third-last. Though Perez has had success throwing out baserunners in his career, his pop time was ranked by Statcast as 50th out of 83 catchers this year.
In terms of framing, the problem appears to be more chronic. FanGraphs has only given him a positive grade in that department once, which was the shortened 2020 season. He posted a -19.6 and -12.6 over the past two campaigns, bringing his career tally to -106.5. That’s last in the majors among all catchers from 2011 to the present. Baseball Prospectus is fairly similar, as Perez has been tagged with a negative number in each season except for 2013 and 2020, with a -14.3 and -14.2 in the past two years. Statcast framing data only goes back to 2015, but it also isn’t fond of his work. Apart from an even zero in 2020, he has all negative numbers there, including a -8 this year, fifth-worst in the league, and a -18 last year, which was dead last.
All of this isn’t to say that Perez is solely responsible for the club’s pitching woes. As mentioned, baseball teams have dozens of coaches and analysts who all play a role in the results. But these numbers surely aren’t ideal when trying to mold a batch of pitching prospects into effective major leaguers. It’s also possible that health is playing a role, since Perez underwent left thumb surgery in 2022. He was supposed to be out of action eight weeks but returned after just over a month and maybe wasn’t 100%. If better health in 2023 leads to better outcomes, that would be fantastic for KC. But if it doesn’t and the problem persists, finding a solution will have multiple challenges.
For one thing, there’s the fact that Perez, who turns 33 in May, is still under contract for at least three more seasons. As part of an extension he and the club agreed to in 2021, he’ll get $20MM in 2023 and 2024, $22MM in 2025, and then a $13.5MM club option for 2026 with a $2MM buyout. For a low-spending team like the Royals, he’s easily their highest-paid player.
Due to Perez having the catching position on lockdown, that’s led to MJ Melendez playing elsewhere. Melendez was a highly-touted catching prospect when coming up through the minor league ranks, but he also played some third base and the corner outfield spots in the minors in order to open up new paths of getting into the lineup. He made it to the big leagues this year, making 65 starts behind the plate and 37 in the outfield.
The results of this have been mixed, to put it politely. At the plate, Melendez finished the season with a 99 wRC+. That’s just a hair below league average overall but slightly above average for a catcher. Defensively, all of the advanced metrics gave him poor grades for his work on the grass, which isn’t terribly surprising since he’s effectively learning on the fly out there. But his numbers behind the plate are also quite poor. DRS gave him a -18 in 2022, the worst in the majors. FanGraphs framing gave him a -15.7, also dead last. CDA at BP gave him a -18.6, also dead last. Their BlkR, a measure of a catcher’s blocking ability, gave him a -1.1, again, dead last. Statcast’s framing metric had him at -12, second-worst in the league.
To be fair to Melendez, he has been given sporadic playing time in his first taste of the majors, while also trying to learn other positions. Becoming a successful major league catcher is already challenging enough without those extra factors thrown in. He’s also still quite young, turning 24 years old later this month. Ideally, he’d be given a full-time catching job and have some time to refine his game and see if he can hack it in the majors, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen in Kansas City as long as Perez is there.
There’s been nothing to indicate the club is considering supplanting Perez as the everyday catcher, but even if they did, that path would have its own challenges. The Royals have a cluttered first base/designated hitter mix at the moment, with Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier all candidates for at-bats in those slots. Some of those guys are candidates to move to the outfield corners, though that’s less than ideal defensively and also could squeeze out guys like Drew Waters, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel.
Taken all together, it’s hard to figure out how to put these ingredients together in a way that leads to something appetizing. With Perez behind the plate, Melendez is likely serving as a part-time catcher and outfielder who isn’t great at either spot. Giving the job to Melendez crowds out the 1B/DH picture and doesn’t even necessarily lead to better work behind the plate. It’s possible that either arrangement leaves roadblocks in front of the young pitchers in the system.
Clearly frustrated by the continued losing, the club has decided a shakeup is in order. They recently fired their long-time baseball ops leader Dayton Moore, with general manager J.J. Picollo now in charge of baseball operations. They also made a change in the manager’s seat, firing Mike Matheny and replacing him with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. They will be tasked with trying to turn a 65-win team into a contender. They’re looking up at a Cleveland team that just surged to the top and is built to stay strong for years to come. The White Sox and Twins had disappointing seasons in 2022 but will be looking to reload in 2022. There’s also a Tigers team that, though currently in a down cycle, is trying to overhaul its analytical systems and will surely spend aggressively once it does. The Royals have lots to deal with in the road ahead, but they might have to start by looking within.