MLB Trade Rumors

Free agency kicks off roughly a week from now. MLBTR has gone around the diamond to take a position-by-position look at the upcoming class. As we round out those previews, we’ll turn our attention to the relief market. We begin today with the left-handed options.

High-Leverage Arms

• Taylor Rogers (32 years old next season)

It wasn’t a great 2022 campaign for Rogers, who found himself at the center of one of the summer’s more controversial trades. He was actually dealt twice this year, first going from the Twins to the Padres in a Opening Day swap that landed Chris Paddack in Minnesota. A few months later, he was a key piece of the rare deadline deal between contenders, with the Brewers acquiring him and a pair of prospects from San Diego for Josh Hader. It didn’t work out as intended, as Rogers surrendered six home runs and blew three leads in Milwaukee. His underperformance was part of an overall bullpen meltdown that contributed to the Brewers narrowly missing the postseason.

That said, there’s also plenty of reason for optimism moving forward. Part of the Brewers’ rationale in the Hader swap was that Rogers could somewhat closely approximate Hader’s production. That wasn’t unfounded, as he’s only a year removed from an All-Star appearance and had been one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Rogers pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a lofty 31.2% strikeout rate and a meager 4.9% walk percentage from 2018-21 in Minnesota. An elevated batting average on balls in play contributed to an unimpressive 4.35 ERA during his half-season in San Diego, but he continued to post well above-average strikeout and walk marks there. He took that to another level in Milwaukee, fanning an incredible 36% of opponents as a Brewer.

There’s no question the home run barrage ended his season on a sour note, but it’s worth noting the longball was never really a problem for Rogers before those ghastly final two months. Opponents certainly aren’t going to continue to clear the fences on more than a quarter of fly balls against him over the long haul, and Rogers’ overall 30.7% strikeout percentage and 6.6% walk rate in 2022 aren’t far off his best marks in Minnesota. While a 4.76 ERA in his platform year wouldn’t suggest it, it’s not hard to still project him as an excellent high-leverage reliever based on the underlying marks.

• Andrew Chafin (33)

Chafin has a $6.5MM player option with the Tigers, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press has already reported he’ll forego that and test the market. He’s certain to beat that amount in free agency, likely topping $6.5MM annually over a two-year deal.

Despite not possessing huge velocity, Chafin has posted above-average strikeout numbers in each of the past two years. He was particularly effective this past season, punching out 27.6% of opponents behind an excellent 13.9% swinging strike rate. He induced ground-balls at a very strong 51.3% clip and only walked 7.8% of batters faced. He’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons, and he now owns a cumulative 2.29 mark while allowing a putrid .203/.268/.299 slash since the start of 2021.

There’s not much to nitpick in Chafin’s performance. He’ll be 33 next June and sits around 92 MPH with his fastball, but one can’t argue with the results. He’ll appeal to teams looking for a key late-inning southpaw, and he’s more than held his own against opponents from both sides of the dish.

• Matt Moore (34)

Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, Moore had a lengthy but up-and-down career as a starting pitcher. He spent 2020 in Japan and a return to the U.S. with the Phillies last year was a disaster. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers in Spring Training and made it to the big leagues in mid-April. Working fully in relief for the first time in his career, he proved a revelation for Texas.

Moore soaked up 74 innings over 63 appearances in Arlington, earning high-leverage work along the way. He pitched to a 1.95 ERA and while he’s not likely to sustain that level of run prevention long-term, there’s plenty to like in his underlying profile. Moore fanned an above-average 27.3% of opponents and racked up whiffs on almost 15% of his offerings. He averaged 93.9 MPH with plus spin on his four-seam and missed plenty of bats with a curveball and changeup alike. At 34 years old, he’ll probably max out at two-year offers, and an elevated 12.5% walk rate is a concern in the highest-leverage innings. Still, there’s little doubting the power stuff he brandished, and he could be on his way to a late-career renaissance in relief.

• Matt Strahm (31)

Strahm’s free agency is quietly one of the more interesting cases this winter. His stock as a traditional reliever is straightforward. Strahm gave the Red Sox 44 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball this past season, assuming a fair amount of high-leverage work. He struck out an above-average 26.9% of opponents despite a modest 9.9% swinging strike rate and walked a roughly average 8.8% of batters faced.

He’d have a chance at a multi-year deal as a reliever, but Strahm has also spoken of his willingness to stretch back out as a starting pitcher if given the opportunity. There’s reason to believe he could have some success. Strahm was a highly-regarded starting pitching prospect during his days in the Royals’ farm system. He has decent control, handled left and right-handed batters alike this year, and mixes in four pitches with regularity. Strahm hasn’t been as forceful about his desire to sign with a team promising a rotation spot as Michael Lorenzen was last winter, and it’s possible his best fit will ultimately remain in the bullpen, but he could plausibly draw some interest as a starter.

Middle Relief Options

• Matt Boyd (32)

A starter throughout his time with the Tigers, Boyd flashed strong swing-and-miss potential at his best. He had an up-and-down tenure in Detroit but looked on his way to arguably his best season in 2021, working to a 3.89 ERA through 15 starts. Unfortunately, he battled arm issues during the second half of the season and underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his forearm in September. With an expected recovery time of nearly a calendar year, the Tigers non-tendered him.

Boyd signed with the Giants to continue his rehab, but San Francisco flipped him to his hometown Mariners at the deadline before he threw a pitch in black and orange. Boyd was activated in September but forced to work in relief, as the approaching end of the season limited his time to build back into game shape. He struck out 13 but walked eight (three intentionally) through 13 1/3 innings. Boyd only faced three batters in the postseason, and he now heads back to the market with some uncertainty. Another team may be willing to give him a rotation audition after a healthy offseason, but he also figures to draw interest as a matchup weapon out of the bullpen.

• David Price (37)

A five-time All-Star and a Cy Young winner during his time as a starter, Price began to work primarily out of the bullpen in 2021. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Dodgers this year, tossing 40 1/3 innings through 40 outings. Price had a solid showing, putting up a 2.45 ERA and inducing ground-balls at a huge 55.8% clip. He only averaged 92.4 MPH on his sinker and had a well below-average 8% swinging strike rate, and there’s no question he was fortunate to post such an excellent run prevention mark. At the same time, his combination of grounders and strong control make him a viable middle innings fit. If Price wants to continue playing, he should find a guaranteed big league job.

• Joely Rodríguez (31)

Traded from the Yankees to the Mets just before Opening Day, Rodríguez spent the season in Queens. He was Buck Showalter’s primary left-handed option but had an up-and-down year. Through 50 1/3 innings, he allowed a 4.47 ERA. He had some unfortunate luck in stranding baserunners that probably inflated that number, but he also walked 12% of opponents. Paired with the spotty control was an enviable combination of whiffs and grounders, as he punched out 26.4% of batters faced and generated a grounder rate above 50%, as he has throughout his big league career. Rodríguez’s average sinker velocity was down to 92.7 MPH after sitting north of 94 MPH in 2021, but his performance was still solid enough he’s likely to land a big league contract.

Former Stars

• Zack Britton (35)

Britton was arguably the game’s best reliever at his peak. He had a 0.54 ERA in 67 innings for the Orioles in a career-best 2016 campaign, but that was just one year in a four-season stretch of sub-3.00 marks. Britton remained eminently productive upon being traded to the Yankees, continuing to dominate opponents up through 2020. No one could match his ground-ball prowess, as he annually rode his incredible sinker to grounder rates north of 70%.

Unfortunately, Britton now heads to the market on the heels of two lost seasons. He pitched just 18 1/3 ineffective innings for the Yankees in 2021, battling elbow issues that eventually necessitated Tommy John surgery. He returned this past September in an attempt to crack New York’s playoff roster, but he clearly wasn’t right. Britton averaged just north of 92 MPH on his fastball, three to four ticks below his heyday. He walked six of the nine batters he faced before being shut down for the season because of shoulder discomfort. He’ll hope the offseason affords him a chance to regain his pre-2021 form. ESPN’s Marly Rivera reported in September that Britton and the Yankees were discussing a new contract, but nothing has come together thus far.

• Aroldis Chapman (35)

An overpowering late-game presence at his peak, Chapman was once perhaps the hardest thrower the game has ever seen. He routinely struck out north of 40% of opposing hitters and while he’s never had great control, his dominant stuff was more than enough to offset a few walks. Chapman has seven sub-3.00 ERA seasons on his resume and was rewarded with the largest reliever contract in MLB history — a five-year, $86MM pact heading into the 2017 campaign. After the 2019 season, the Yankees added an extra $18MM to that deal to keep him from triggering an opt-out clause.

Chapman was still effective up through last season. A fastball that once averaged north of triple digits “only” then sat around 98 MPH, but he continued to miss bats in droves and put up a 3.31 ERA between 2020-21. His 2022 season was an unmitigated disaster, however. Chapman still averaged 97.5 MPH on his fastball, but his formerly otherworldly strikeout rate dropped to a merely good 26.9%. He also walked nearly 18% of opponents en route to a personal-worst 4.46 ERA in 36 1/3 innings. He missed time late in the regular season after a bad tattoo led to a leg infection, and the Yankees left him off their postseason roster after he failed to show up for a team workout. It was a dreadful platform season, but Chapman’s still among the harder throwers in the sport and had a long pre-2022 track record as an elite reliever.

• Brad Hand (33)

Hand was among the game’s best relievers from 2016-20. He posted a sub-3.00 mark in four of those five seasons and earned a trio of All-Star berths. A velocity dip during the 2020 season contributed to Cleveland’s surprising decision to cut him loose despite a 2.05 ERA through 22 innings. Hand split the 2021 season between three teams before signing a one-year deal with Philadelphia last winter.

Over 45 regular season innings, Hand posted a fine 2.80 ERA. That’s largely attributable to some ball in play fortune and an extremely low home run rate, though. His 19.2% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk percentage are each markedly worse than average, and he’s gotten swinging strikes on only 7.3% of his pitches. He may be hard-pressed to match the $6MM guarantee he landed from the Phillies last winter.

Minor League Deal Candidates

• José Álvarez (34): Álvarez had a quality 2021 season, but he managed just a 5.28 ERA through 15 1/3 innings in 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September and is likely to miss all of next season.
• Anthony Banda (30): Banda suited up for three different teams in 2022, frequently shuttling around the waiver wire. He allowed a 6.75 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. A former top prospect, he averaged north of 95 MPH on his fastball this year.
• Danny Coulombe (33): Coulombe has carved out a decent career as a strike-throwing depth arm despite lacking huge velocity. He had a rough 2022 season, though, putting up nine strikeouts and walks apiece in 12 1/3 innings for the Twins. He only allowed three runs, but Minnesota nevertheless cut him loose after the season because of the poor peripherals.
• Austin Davis (30): Davis spent the bulk of the season with the Red Sox but had a brief look with the Twins after being claimed off waivers. Between the two teams, he posted a 5.79 ERA over 56 innings. He struck out a solid 24.2% of opponents and averaged above 94 MPH on his fastball, but he walked 12.5% of batters faced. He cleared waivers late in the season and reached minor league free agency.
• Ross Detwiler (37): Detwiler made 30 appearances for the Reds after signing a minor league deal. He put up a 4.44 ERA despite average strikeout and walk numbers before being outrighted off the 40-man roster in late August.
• Sean Doolittle (36): A two-time All-Star, Doolittle has settled into journeyman territory over the past three seasons. He returned to the Nationals, where he had some of his best years, for the 2022 campaign. After starting the year with 5 1/3 innings of scoreless, one-hit ball, he suffered ligament damage in his elbow that necessitated a UCL brace procedure in mid-July. That ended his year. He’s expected to be healthy for 2023 but may have to pitch his way back onto a big league roster as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.
• Paul Fry (30): Fry looked like he’d broken out with a strong 2020 and excellent first half in ’21 for the Orioles. Things have fallen apart since that year’s All-Star Break, as he has an 11.70 ERA in 20 MLB innings dating back to last August. The Diamondbacks took a shot on him in May but let him go three months later.
• Adam Kolarek (34): Kolarek barely touches 90 MPH with his fastball and doesn’t miss bats, but he annually posts elite ground-ball numbers. He put up a 4.58 ERA in 17 2/3 innings for the A’s this season and was let go in late June.
• T.J. McFarland (34): A soft-tossing grounder specialist, McFarland had some success for the Cardinals in 2021. The veteran had a rough ’22 campaign, pitching to a 6.61 ERA with a personal-worst (but still strong) 53% grounder rate before losing his big league roster spot in mid-August.
• Jake McGee (36): McGee was an excellent closer for the Giants in 2021, but this past season was a disaster. He suited up for three different teams after bouncing around the waiver wire but didn’t find success at any of those stops. Between the Giants, Brewers and Nationals, he posted a 6.81 ERA with just a 15.3% strikeout rate over 37 frames.
• Tommy Milone (36): A quintessential journeyman, Milone has bounced around the league thanks to his excellent control. He doesn’t throw hard or miss bats, but he pounds the strike zone and can make a spot start or work in long relief. He played the latter role for this year’s Mariners, tossing 16 2/3 innings over seven relief outings. He posted a 5.40 ERA with five strikeouts and six walks.
• Sean Newcomb (30): Newcomb’s a former top prospect who once looked like a potential rotation building block for the Braves. He’s been hit hard since the start of 2020, however. This past season was especially rough, as he managed only an 8.78 ERA through 27 2/3 innings with astronomical walk and home run rates while bouncing on and off the Atlanta and Cubs rosters. Newcomb throws in the mid-90’s and has a strong prospect pedigree, so he’ll find minor league interest.
• Daniel Norris (30): Norris had a bizarre 2022 season. Despite a stellar 32.1% strikeout rate as a member of the Cubs early in the year, he was tagged for a 6.90 ERA through 30 innings thanks to huge walk and home run rates. That led to a release, although he returned to the majors with the Tigers not long after. In Detroit, Norris lost his strikeouts but also got the walks and the longball under control en route to a 3.45 ERA in 28 2/3 frames.
• Josh Rogers (28): Rogers came out of the bullpen for 13 of 16 outings with the Nationals. He worked to a 5.13 ERA, striking out just 10.6% of batters faced, before being outrighted off the 40-man roster.
• Dillon Peters (31): Peters spent this past season as a swing option for the Pirates. He tossed 39 1/3 innings across 22 games (four starts), working to a 4.58 ERA with a 15.8% strikeout rate despite averaging a personal-best 92.5 MPH on his sinker.
• Chasen Shreve (32): Shreve has flashed swing-and-miss potential throughout his career, and he fanned a solid 25.8% of opponents with the Mets this year. He was tagged for six home runs in just 26 1/3 innings en route to a 6.49 ERA, however, sitting below 91 MPH with his fastball. The Mets cut him loose in mid-July, and he finished the season in Triple-A with the Yankees.

Players With Club Options

• Will Smith, Astros hold $13MM option, $1MM buyout

Houston acquired Smith in a deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to the Braves. Strike-throwing issues had contributed to a 4.38 ERA in Atlanta, but he righted the ship upon landing in Houston. Smith posted a 3.27 ERA with an above-average 26.7% strikeout rate and an excellent 4.4% walk percentage through 22 innings in Houston. He’s gotten whiffs on an incredible 17.3% of his offerings as an Astro and has allowed just 11 of the 46 left-handed hitters he’s faced to reach base (.239 OBP). It’s a $12MM decision for Houston, and that’s likely to go beyond their comfort zone given his ups and downs in Atlanta, particularly as they see a number of key players hit free agency. If he’s bought out, however, Smith will be one of the better left-handed options in the class. He also has a fair bit of closing experience, so teams shouldn’t have any trepidation about entrusting him with high-leverage plate appearances.

• Justin Wilson, Reds hold $1.22MM option

Wilson exercised a $2.3MM player option to return to the Reds this past season. His deal contained a provision that tacked on a 2023 club option for $500K north of the league minimum if he triggered that player option, so the Reds will have a chance to bring him back for a modest $1.22MM next year. Even that seems unlikely, as the veteran underwent Tommy John surgery in June. He won’t be ready until late in the ’23 campaign at the earliest and could plausibly miss the entire season.

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