Rangers Interested In Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers
At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Rangers general manager Chris Young recently spoke with the media, including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, and said the club is going to explore all areas of the starting pitching market. Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentions some discussions between the Rangers and Jacob deGrom, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network also mentions deGrom, in addition to Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga.
It’s hardly a surprise that the rotation will be a focus going forward, given that it was an obvious weakness in 2022. Texas starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA this year, placing them 25th in the majors in that regard. They got some decent work from Jon Gray and a career year from veteran Martin Perez, though Perez has now reached free agency and deprived the already-weak rotation of its strongest performer. There’s reportedly mutual interest in a reunion, with he and the club reportedly discussing multi-year pacts. But nothing has been finalized and he has now officially received a $19.65MM qualifying offer.
The club has already made one move to fortify the starting corps, acquiring Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta yesterday. Odorizzi hasn’t been great over the past three years, but he seems plenty capable of taking the ball and providing some decent innings. He had a 4.21 ERA in 2021 and a 4.40 mark in 2022 but got over 100 innings in each of those seasons and 143 in each year from 2014 to 2019.
If the Rangers and Perez can come to an agreement, he would form a solid three-headed veteran core with Gray and Odorizzi. The rotation would have a solid base but would be lacking a true ace. Perez posted a 2.89 ERA in 2022 but was at 4.38 or above in each of the previous eight seasons. Even if he has unlocked a pitch mix that leads to better results, maintaining a 6.5% HR/FB rate will be tough to do and some regression could still be in the cards. Gray dealt with some injuries this year but still made 24 starts and posted a 3.96 ERA with rate stats fairly close to his career marks. Dane Dunning could also be a factor at the back end of the rotation after he put up a 4.46 ERA over 29 starts this year. His health is a bit uncertain after his season was ended by arthroscopic hip surgery, but he can be an option if he’s healthy.
It seems the Rangers are willing to consider another bold strike to complement that group of serviceable pitchers. Last year, they showed they’re not afraid of such moves, giving Corey Seager $325MM over ten years and Marcus Semien $175MM over seven years. This year, it’s possible the big strike comes for an ace to lead the starting staff. That could come in the form a deal for Rodon, whom the club has already been connected to, with deGrom and Senga also being considered.
deGrom, 35 in June, certainly fits the bill of an ace, as he’s arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy. That health hasn’t always been present, especially lately, with deGrom missing over a year from July of 2021 to August of 2022. However, after his return, he showed that he can still be his dominant self, making 11 starts and throwing 64 1/3 innings. His 3.08 ERA was two full runs above what he did prior to his injury shutdown in 2021, but the peripherals were still very similar. His 42.7% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate were both still absurdly good and point to more elite results going forward. Given his health concerns and age, it’s possible he will be looking at short-term offers with his annual salaries. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list dropped yesterday with a prediction of $135MM over three years, which is $45MM per year.
That would certainly be one way for the club to go. Another would be a more traditional contract of greater length but less money per year. MLBTR projected a higher guarantee for Rodon at $140MM, though over a five-year term that would be significantly less on an annual basis, $28MM per year. Senga will likely require even less, predicted for $75 over five years, or $15MM per season. Of course, that would also come with its own kind of risk, given that Senga’s unproven against MLB hitters and not all NPB aces have found similar success after crossing the Pacific.
When talking about such figures, it’s worth taking a look at the club’s payroll situation. Roster Resource currently pegs the Rangers’ 2023 outlay at $122MM. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $142MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they’re only about $20MM away. If Perez eventually accepts the QO, they’re suddenly even. However, Young has already spoken about how payroll is going to go up and they have been as high as $165MM in previous seasons. Ultimately, exactly how much they have to spend will play a factor in how they address the rotation. If they have, say, $45MM to work with, putting all those eggs into the deGrom basket would be a huge upgrade but wouldn’t leave anything left to address the outfield or bullpen. Regardless of the final number, it will be interesting to see how it plays out as the club looks to gain some serious ground in a competitive AL West.
Braves To Sign Nick Anderson
The Braves are signing right-hander Nick Anderson, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s a split deal where Anderson will earn $875K in the big leagues and $180K in the minors.
Anderson, 32, was one of the best relievers in the league over 2019 and 2020. Splitting his time between the Marlins and Rays, he pitched 81 1/3 innings over those two campaigns. In that time, he had a combined 2.77 ERA, along with absurd rate stats, striking out 42.2% of batters faced while walking just 6.5% of them.
Anderson has faced his share of struggles over the past two years, however. He was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear during Spring Training in 2021. He made just six appearances before going on the IL and never returned. He underwent a UCL brace procedure in October of that year and didn’t return until August of 2022. Upon his return, the Rays kept him in the minors until plantar fasciitis ended his season.
Anderson was eligible for arbitration this year, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a contract of $845K, just a smidge above next year’s $720K league minimum. Despite that modest price point, the Rays were facing a roster crunch and decided to move on from Anderson. He was placed on waivers this week and cleared. Since he has over three years of MLB service time, he was eligible to elect free agency and did so.
For Atlanta, this is a low-risk, high-reward play. Anderson isn’t costing much, and would be huge value if he can rediscover his previous form. It’s possible that the injuries prevent him from reaching his previous heights, but in that scenario, they will have lost a small amount of money in MLB terms. If the gamble pays off, there will be long-term benefits, since Anderson could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration.
It’s possible Atlanta is facing an offseason of tight spending, despite five straight NL East titles. The club has never paid the competitive balance tax before, but their slew of contract extensions have pushed them close to the brink. The lowest CBT threshold for 2023 is $233MM, and the club is currently at $228MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. It’s possible that the club is willing to pay the tax for the first time in order to retain Dansby Swanson at shortstop or else replace him. In the meantime, they’ve found a low-cost flier that could potentially help their bullpen.
Big Hype Prospects: Sheehan, Perez Jr., Kjerstad, Walker, Mervis
Our Arizona Fall League prospect coverage is coming to a close. The league wraps up its postseason this weekend. We’ll use this opportunity for one last peek at game action before affiliated baseball closes down for the year.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 20.1 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 3.54 ERA
Arguably the top pitching prospect in the AFL, Sheehan had a shaky start to his fall season. He ended with a masterpiece: a five-inning, 10-strikeout gem. He allowed one hit and one walk in the outing. A right-handed changeup specialist, command is the main bugaboo when it comes to Sheehan’s development. His repertoire plays together in a way that should flummox hitters at all levels. As a Dodger, there is increased pressure to refine his command if he wants to stick in the rotation. Most clubs would comfortably view him as a future starter – one who might fumble a few games in the early innings but make up for it by dominating in others. The Dodgers could yet opt to turn him into a swing-man or reliever as they have with several able pitching prospects in recent years.
Robert Perez Jr., 22, 1B, SEA (A+)
AFL: 77 PA, 3 HR, .231/.338/.415
A slow-burn prospect whose calling card is power, Perez neither seized nor fumbled his opportunity in the AFL. The Rule 5-eligible first baseman has impressive power which he put on display by winning the first Fall Stars Home Run Derby. He performed well during the regular season – mostly at Low-A where he was a tad old for the level. His potent regular season and passable AFL campaign should lead to a promotion to Double-A early in the season. Whether or not the Mariners opt to add him to their 40-man, the right-handed slugger probably isn’t ready for a straight jump to the Majors via the Rule 5 Draft. Even in the AFL, he struck out 22 times in 77 plate appearances (28 percent).
Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 104 PA, 5 HR, .357/.385/.622
Few players had more to prove this fall than Kjerstad. Now that the smoke has cleared, he answered some questions and raised others. The left-handed hitting outfielder led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He recorded five walks and 31 strikeouts. Given the modest quality of pitching in the AFL, it’s fair to wonder about his combination of aggression and swing-and-miss tendencies. This is a long-standing issue dating back to pre-draft reports. He worked on it during the regular season – possibly to the detriment of his power. On-site observers raved about the quality of Kjerstad’s contact… whenever he connected. Between premium exit velocities, plenty of fly balls, and all those at bats, it’s no surprise he led the league in extra-base hits.
Such prospects succeed when they’re adept at making adjustments. Kjerstad should get his first taste of the upper minors at some point next season.
Jordan Walker, 20, OF/3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 90 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .286/.367/.558
While others had flashier showings, Walker was the talk of the AFL. He handled himself with poise while flashing a superstar ceiling – both by the traditional eye-test and via Statcast measurables. He likely could hold his own in the Majors as soon as next season. The Cardinals have been working on shifting him to the outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. The main element lacking in Walker’s development is the easiest to supply – experience. He needs more opportunities to face and adjust to star-caliber pitching. Along the way, he’ll likely develop into a regular All-Star candidate.
Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 68 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .262/.324/.590
Of AFL participants (excluding Joey Wentz), Mervis probably has the best chance to open 2023 in the Majors. Including the regular season, he hit 42 home runs in 646 plate appearances this year. Remarkably, especially for the AFL home run leader, he fanned just eight times (11.8% K%) this fall. He also improved his strikeout rate continuously throughout the regular season. He began in High-A, where he recorded a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. That dropped to just 20.0 percent in Double-A and 14.6 percent in Triple-A. The low rate at his final stop coincided with an 8.7 percent swinging strike rate – far better than the league average. If Mervis can continue to avoid strikeouts while tapping into his power, he’ll have a bright future as a mid-lineup left-handed slugger.
Five More
Edouard Julien (23): Julien has been covered ad nauseum in this column. No prospect did more to further their claim to a future Major League role this fall. He’ll almost certainly be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Julien’s combination of discipline, contact, sneaky pop, and sneakier baserunning are the traits of a regular. He still needs to settle into a position defensively – an issue that has arisen a few times in the Twins recent past (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon).
Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert allowed a hit in his final inning of work, closing out the season with 11.2 innings, 40 batters faced, one hit allowed, four walks, and 25 strikeouts. Despite a relatively low inning total, he had the second-most strikeouts. The showing will help put him in consideration for a Major League role next season. The Rays have a crammed 40-man roster, and Reifert isn’t Rule 5-eligible until next offseason.
Tyler Hardman, NYY (23): A developing slugger with potent pop, Hardman is coming off Player of the Week honors. Overall, he posted a .325/.373/.662 line in 83 plate appearances. Of qualified hitters, he had the fourth-best OPS. Contact and inconsistent defense at the hot corner hold him back from appearing on prospect lists.
Nick Gonzales, PIT (23): Gonzales dropped from the spotlight due to injury and flawed performance. His AFL stint allowed him to build on a solid first showing in Double-A. In both settings, he succeeded without truly impressing. Whiffs remain an issue for a second baseman who is heavily dependent on his offensive output.
Francisco Morales, PHI (23): Morales is an interesting AFL participant because the Phillies have already burned two of his option years. They’re likely assessing if he should remain on the roster at all. He was one of four pitchers to throw 10 or more AFL innings without allowing an earned run. He recorded 17 strikeouts with only four hits allowed in 10.2 innings. He also issued seven free passes. Those walk issues have haunted him on a regular basis.
Rays Hire Jon Daniels As Senior Advisor For Baseball Operations
The Rays announced to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, that they have hired Jon Daniels as senior advisor for baseball operations. Daniels had spent many years with the Rangers until he was recently fired as president of baseball operations.
Daniels, 45, spent 17 years running the baseball operations in Texas, getting hired as general manager in 2005 and promoted to the POBO role in 2013. The Rangers had their best run of success with Daniels at the helm, as they made the playoffs in five out of seven seasons from 2010 to 2016, including trips to the World Series in the first two of those years. Since that time, however, the club has entered a rebuilding period that has continued to linger. They fell to 78-84 in 2017 and just endured their sixth straight losing season in 2022, with Daniels getting fired in August.
Despite the poor results in recent seasons, the Rays will bring Daniels into their front office mix. Said front office is headed by Erik Neander, president of baseball operations, followed by Peter Bendix, senior vice president baseball operations and general manager. The exact level of involvement they expect from Daniels is unclear, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that Daniels will focus on “supporting baseball ops senior leadership while utilizing his extensive experience in the industry to help further inform decision-making.”
In addition to the hiring of Daniels, the Rays also announced several promotions and/or title changes, with Topkin giving a rundown on Twitter (link one, two and three).
Astros Fire Assistant General Manager Scott Powers
The Houston Astros have fired assistant general manager Scott Powers, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. This comes on the heels of the firing of general manager James Click from earlier today. As noted by Passan, Click hired Powers away from the Dodgers back in January.
The Astros parting ways with Click was the first domino to fall in a surprising sequence of events following the Astros winning the 2022 World Series. Despite reports of friction between Click and owner Jim Crane, it had been speculated by many that a World Series victory would nonetheless be enough to overcome those tensions and keep the gravy train rolling. Instead, it seems that the hurdles have been too high to mount, despite the Astros emerging triumphant in 2022. After Click was removed from the picture, it had been hypothesized that some of his hires would also be let go, and that has indeed come to pass with Powers getting sent out the door behind Click.
Powers was the Dodgers director of quantitative analysis up until he was hired by the Astros in January of 2022. Also hired as an AGM at that time was Andrew Ball, who had worked with Click in the Rays’ system. No word has been released about his status but it’s fair to wonder at this point if Crane is determined at this point to dismiss anyone he deems to be a Click guy. It’s worth reiterating that Click was hired after the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts in 2017 came to light after the 2019 season. President of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow was fired and Click hired shortly thereafter. Although the team has continued performing well, it seems that things haven’t been as rosy behind the scenes. Despite the firings, Click and Powers and anyone else who ends up leaving will surely get plenty of interest from other teams around the league based on their track record of results on the field.
The Astros are now facing a large amount of front office turnover. In addition to Click and Powers, and whatever other moves may or may not be coming, a few executives have already departed for jobs with other organizations. A month ago, the Giants hired Pete Putila, another Houston AGM, to be their general manager. Oz Ocampo, a long-time scout and executive with the Astros, was recently hired to be an AGM with the Marlins.
This puts the Astros in a strange and perhaps unprecedented position. On the one hand, they are reigning world champions, having just hoisted the trophy less than a week ago. That’s just the latest success marker in a long run of results, as they have qualified for the ALCS in each of the last six seasons. On the other hand, they will have to quickly scramble to fill out a front office that is hemorrhaging members while making plans for their title defense in 2023.
Many have wondered if David Stearns could be a candidate due to a couple of factors. He recently stepped down from his role as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations and into a more advisory position, and also was an AGM with the Astros before going to Milwaukee. However, he is still under contract for one more year and has said he’s not going anywhere, reiterating that position today to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “I’m just going to reiterate what I said previously: I’m not going anywhere,” Stearns said “I’m committed to advising Mark [Attanasio, Milwaukee’s principal owner] and [general manager Matt Arnold] in any way I can. And that’s that.”
Diamondbacks Outright Humberto Castellanos, Tyler Zuber, Buddy Kennedy
November 11: The Diamondbacks announced that they have outrighted Castellanos and Zuber, as well as infielder Buddy Kennedy.
November 10: The Diamondbacks announced a batch of roster moves today, reinstating five players from the 60-day injured list. They are infielders Nick Ahmed and Emmanuel Rivera, left-hander Tyler Gilbert, along with right-handers Humberto Castellanos and Tyler Zuber. Those latter two names have also been designated for assignment. That leaves the club’s 40-man roster at exactly 40.
Starting today and until Spring Training, there is no injured list. That means that most teams around the league are facing roster crunches as players on the 60-day IL have to retake their roster spots. The D-Backs reinstated these five but also had to designate a couple of them in order to get their roster down to an even 40.
Zuber, 28 in June, was just claimed off waivers from the Royals a couple of weeks ago. The fact that Arizona has quickly put him back into DFA limbo perhaps suggests that their plan in claiming him has been to pass him through waivers and hang onto his rights. He missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder impingement but recently began throwing again. When he was last healthy in 2021, he had poor results in the majors but put up a 2.83 ERA in Triple-A with a 37.1% strikeout rate, though an unfortunate 13.8% walk rate. If he clears waivers, the D-Backs can try to help him with his control but without Zuber taking up a roster spot.
As for Castellanos, 25 in April, he made 11 appearances for the Snakes in 2022, including nine starts. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in August and is likely to miss the entire 2023 season.
Rockies Re-Sign José Ureña
The Rockies and right-hander José Ureña are in agreement on a contract for 2023. It’s a one-year, $3.5MM guarantee that comes in the form of a $3MM salary for 2022 along with a $500K buyout on a $4MM club option for 2024.
Ureña, 31, is a veteran who has appeared in each of the past eight MLB seasons. The first six of those were with the Marlins and the seventh was with the Tigers, with the righty generally soaking up innings by inducing a fair amount of ground balls. In 2022, he began the year with the Brewers but was let go in May after just four relief appearances. He latched on with the Rockies on a minor league deal and made it up to their big league team by July. He eventually made 17 starts for Colorado and continued in his usual low-strikeout, high-grounder fashion. He logged 89 1/3 innings with a 5.14 ERA, 15.2% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 50.3% ground ball rate, with all of those being pretty close to his career marks.
Since Coors Field is notorious for its offense-forward environment, Ureña was likely better than that ERA indicates. All of the advanced metrics were a bit kinder, as he had a 4.53 FIP, 4.46 xFIP and 4.83 SIERA. Those still aren’t amazing numbers, but the Rockies often have trouble convincing pitchers to make Denver their home. As the season was winding down, reports emerged that both he and the club were happy with their arrangement and were interested in a reunion. Giving the mutual affection and constant need for arms in Colorado, signing up for another year at a modest price point seems to be a good fit for all parties.
By bringing back Ureña, the club adds a reliable veteran to a rotation that has a lot of uncertainty at the moment. Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland should have two spots spoken for, with Ureña now taking a third. There’s not much guaranteed beyond that right now though. Antonio Senzatela should enter the mix at some point, though he was diagnosed with a torn ACL in August. At the time, the estimated recovery period was given as 6-8 months, meaning Senzatela could miss a chunk of the beginning of the season. There are other options to fill out the back, such as Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner and Noah Davis. In the case of Davis, he is unproven as he has just a single inning of MLB experience at this point. Gomber and Feltner are a bit more established, though they each posted ERAs above 5.50 in 2022.
Given that uncertainty, this signing should only be the beginning of the steps the Rockies take to address their rotation before Opening Day. They might not be well-positioned to be huge players in the free agent pitching market, given their payroll. Roster Resource estimates that today’s signing pushes next year’s outlay to $157MM. The franchise record for an Opening Day figure is $131MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they are already almost $30MM into uncharted waters here. Given those circumstances, and the fact that free agent pitchers are usually loath to voluntary make Coors Field their home, the next moves could come via other means or might be similarly modest.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in agreement. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first had that it was a major league deal and that it was worth $3.5MM (Twitter links). Thomas Harding of MLB.com first reported the club option for 2024. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the $3MM salary for 2023, $4MM figure for the option and $500K number for the buyout (Twitter links).
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Cubs Outright Esteban Quiroz, Jared Young
The Cubs announced that infielders Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young have cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa.
Quiroz, 31 in February, played in the Mexican League for years and didn’t sign with an affiliated ball club until he was almost 26. He spent time in the organizations of the Red Sox, Padres and Rays before coming to the Cubs in the Harold Ramirez trade. He was selected to the big league roster in September and was able to make his MLB debut as the season was winding down. He hit .275/.370/275 for a wRC+ of 95 over 14 games in that brief audition.
Young, 27, was selected by the Cubs in the 15th round of the 2017 draft. Like Quiroz, he was promoted to the big leagues in September and got a brief MLB audition. He got into six games and hit .263/.364/.368 for a wRC+ of 113 in that small sample. He walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances but struck out in 31.8% of them.
Players have the right to reject outrights assignments if they have three years of MLB service time or have previously been outrighted in their career. Since neither player qualifies, they will remain in the Cubs’ organization as depth but without taking up a roster spot.
Ji-Man Choi To Undergo Elbow Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training
The Pirates acquired Ji-Man Choi from the Rays in a trade yesterday, slotting him in as their first baseman for 2023. Ben Cherington, the general manager of Choi’s new club, passed along some information about Choi’s health to reporters today. Per Justice delos Santos of MLB.com, Choi will undergo a minor procedure for his right elbow in Korea but is expected to be recovered in time for Spring Training. “Based on the total information we have, we feel good about him going into next year,” Cherington said, per Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic.
delos Santos notes that Choi dealt with an elbow injury during the 2022 season, which was back towards the beginning of the year. He was placed on the IL on May 1, retroactive to April 28, due to loose bodies in his right elbow. He was able to return after a minimum stay on May 8 and avoided the IL for the remainder of the year.
Though Cherington didn’t provide many details, if the procedure is related to loose bodies, it’s likely not a huge concern. Alex Bregman underwent a procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow in January of 2019 and was still expected to be ready by Opening Day. That indeed came to pass, as Bregman didn’t miss any time in the regular season, getting into 156 games, and went on to have an excellent campaign. Each player and individual injury are unique, of course, but if Choi’s case is at all similar to Bregman’s, he has plenty of lead time to get healthy before next year.
Overall, he hit .233/.341/.388 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 115. He was much better prior to the IL stint, hitting .357/.491/.595 against a .217/.320/.360 line afterwards. It’s possible the arrival of the elbow issues had an impact, though that pre-IL line is just a 15-game sample and the latter section is still above average, producing a wRC+ of 101.
If the procedure helps Choi’s production take a step forward in 2023, the Pirates would surely welcome it. They are not expected to be competitive next year due to their ongoing rebuild and will likely be looking to trade Choi at the deadline since he’s an impending free agent. If he can come back from the offseason with any kind of improvement, it could help them to scoop up an interesting prospect or two when July rolls around.
Dipoto: Mariners Getting Trade Interest In Chris Flexen
With six starters on the Mariners’ roster at the moment, fifth starter candidates Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have both emerged as potential trade candidates. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto confirmed at today’s GM Meetings that other clubs were showing interest in Flexen back at the trade deadline and have expressed continued interest in the right-hander throughout this week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).
Flexen isn’t the only Mariners arm who’s drawn interest; Dipoto told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that his team is “getting hit constantly, up and down, with our bullpen, our starters.” However, Dipoto also stressed that he doesn’t plan to subtract from his bullpen via trade, but rather hopes to further augment an already strong relief corps.
As things stand, the Mariners have a deep rotation — with six starters for five spots. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby make up one of the sport’s best rotation quartets, and they’re trailed by a pair of solid fifth starter options in Flexen and longtime Mariner Marco Gonzales. Seattle also has young Matt Brash as a potential option, and while the thinking is that he’s likely bullpen-bound for the foreseeable future, Dipoto told Divish that Brash would head to Spring Training stretched out as a starter and be downshifted into a relief role if the rotation remained healthy and did not undergo any other changes.
Those potential changes, quite likely, are in reference to a possible trade of Flexen and/or Gonzales. While neither is going to front any team’s rotation, both pitchers are serviceable options in the fourth or fifth spot of a starting staff, and both are relatively affordable. Flexen is set to earn $8MM next season after triggering a vesting option on his contract. He’ll only have three-plus years of service time at that point, but MLBTR has confirmed that the two-year deal Flexen signed upon returning from the KBO allows him to become a free agent next winter. As such, he’s a one-year rental.
Since returning from a one-year stint in the KBO, the 28-year-old Flexen has pitched 317 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball for the Mariners. His 16.5% strikeout rate has been well south of league-average, but he’s better than average in terms of walk rate (6.8%) and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9). Flexen has also averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start and done a decent job minimizing hard contact.
As for Gonzales, a trade would be tougher to piece together. He’ll turn 31 in February, making him a good bit older than Flexen, and while his $6.5MM salary for the 2023 season is more affordable than that of Flexen, Gonzales is also owed $12MM in 2024. His contract contains a $15MM option for the 2025 season, though that option has no buyout.
Two years at a combined $18.5MM isn’t necessarily egregious for Gonzales, but it’s likely more than he’d fetch in the open market at present. He’s made 67 starts and soaked up 326 1/3 innings with a 4.05 ERA over the past two seasons, but Gonzales has seen his fastball velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him about a full run worse than his ERA.
Logically speaking, the Mariners appear to be headed toward some form of move involving one of their two back-of-the-rotation options. Flexen, in particular, would seem appealing given the short term remaining on his contract and more reasonable overall commitment, though that’s only my own speculation.
Moving either player would help the Mariners to scale back a projected $131MM payroll next season (hat tip: Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), not that they necessarily need to. The team’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was $158MM back in 2018, and they took their payroll north of $170MM each year from 2016-18 by way of in-season trades (via Cot’s). That should leave ample payroll space regardless of how the team acts with regard to its rotation.
Still, spending a combined $14.5MM in 2023 payroll on a pair of fifth-starter candidates is, obviously, a sub-optimal arrangement. Shedding some or all of that combined salary will only give Dipoto and his staff more flexibility when it comes to offseason pursuits, and it’s possible that Flexen in particular could help net some immediate help for the big league roster (perhaps with some minor league talent being included by Seattle). As far as potential other targets, Dipoto has already acknowledged that he feels NPB ace Kodai Senga could be an “impact” MLB arm, and he mentioned in the aforementioned Rosenthal column that his club could seek a middle infielder and at least one — if not two — corner outfielders this winter.