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Phillies Announce Wild Card Roster

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The Phillies ended an 11-year playoff drought when they held onto the final Wild Card spot in the newly expanded postseason format, edging out the 86-win Brewers and finishing with an 87-75 record on the year. They’re in St. Louis for a best-of-three showdown with a Cardinals team that’s hoping to extend the farewell tour of several iconic veterans. Zack Wheeler will take the mound opposite resurgent Cardinals lefty Jose Quintana in this afternoon’s series opener. Here’s how the Phillies’ roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Both Sosa, who’d been on the injured list with a hamstring strain, and Hand, who’d been shelved with elbow tendinitis, were formally activated from the IL today in order to be placed on the playoff roster. With each of Syndergaard, Falter and Gibson making the cut, the Phillies are effectively carrying six starting pitchers, though the majority of them will be working out of relief. Eflin technically gives them seven starters on the roster, though the veteran righty and free-agent-to-be shifted to the bullpen down the stretch after spending more than two months on the injured list this summer due to a knee injury.

The Phillies’ deadline pickups this year proved to pivotal in their return to the playoffs. Marsh, a longtime top prospect with the Angels, provided some needed defense in the outfield and hit .288/.319/.455 down the stretch with his new club. However, it’ll be the St. Louis native and right-handed-hitting Vierling getting the Game 1 nod in center against the left-handed Quintana. Both Syndergaard and Robertson, meanwhile, provided solid innings to help the Phils overcome injuries on the staff. Sosa, acquired mainly for his glove, hit .315/.345/.593 in a small sample of 59 plate appearances before landing on the shelf.

Taking a step back, the Phillies’ very presence in the postseason is somewhat incredible, given their catastrophic start to the season. As of June 3, the Phillies sat at 22-29 on the season — the result of a miserable losing streak that ultimately led to the firing of manager Joe Girardi. Bench coach Rob Thomson ascended to the manager’s chair, and while Phils fans might’ve hoped the shakeup would result in better play, few could’ve realistically forecasted a surge back into postseason contention at that point. It’s not quite a 2019 Nationals turnaround — the Nats were 19-31 at their low point — but the Phils will hope for a similar Cinderella story to play out in 2022.

Guardians Set Wild Card Roster

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The AL Central champion Guardians are set to host the Rays for the 2022 Wild Card round — a best-of-three series that will be played entirely in Cleveland. They’ll turn to 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber to square off against Rays ace Shane McClanahan in the opener of today’s series. Here’s how the roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catcher

Infielders

Outfielders

Right-hander Aaron Civale is a notable but understandable absence, given that he tossed six innings and threw 84 pitches in the final regular-season game of the year just two days ago. One would imagine that if Cleveland advances, he’d factor into the ALDS, considering the manner in which he rebounded following a disastrous start to the season. Over his final 13 starts, Civale worked to a 3.55 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate against a 4.9% walk rate.

Somewhat remarkably, the Cleveland postseason roster will feature four late-season call-ups who each have fewer than 100 career plate appearances in the Majors. Each of Will Brennan, Will Benson, Gabriel Arias and Bo Naylor was selected to the MLB for the first time on Aug. 1 or later — Oct. 1 in Naylor’s case. Both Naylor and Arias have drawn fanfare on Top 100 prospect rankings around the industry, though the latter’s stock dipped in 2022 with a rough season in Triple-A. The inclusion of Bo Naylor on the roster makes for a feel-good story, as he and older brother Josh have now not only both reached the big leagues and played in the postseason, but done so as teammates.

The bulk of young and untested players is both a reflection of ownership’s annual payroll constraints and a testament to the organization’s exceptional player development prowess. Few pegged the Guardians, who entered the season as the game’s youngest team, as postseason contenders. While it’s true that the AL Central is generally regarded as the game’s weakest division, Cleveland still not only toppled more veteran Minnesota and Chicago clubs that were expected to vie for the division crown but did so handily, closing out the regular season with a whopping 11-game lead over the second-place White Sox.

Rays Announce Wild Card Roster

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The Rays closed out the season on a sour note, dropping their final five games but still holding onto the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League. They’ve now formally announced their roster for their Wild Card round showdown against the AL Central champion Guardians — a best-of-three series where all games will take place in Cleveland. Ace Shane McClanahan will take the mound against 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber in Game 1 today. Here’s how the rest of Tampa Bay’s roster shapes up…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Right-hander JT Chargois, who missed most of the season due to a pair of oblique strains, is a notable omission from the group. The right-hander returned to the roster in late August and tossed 18 1/3 innings of 1.47 ERA ball down the stretch, including a 0.79 ERA and 10-to-1 K/BB ratio in his final 11 1/3 innings. The ostensible final bullpen spot will go to righty Javy Guerra, however, perhaps in deference to the near-99 mph average velocity on his sinker and near-98 mph average on his four-seamer. Guerra tossed 9 2/3 shutout innings to close out his own season, though he did so with a more troublesome 6-to-5 K/BB ratio.

Tigers Make Changes To Coaching Staff

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Tigers manager A.J. Hinch announced a series of changes to his coaching staff this morning (Twitter link via Jason Beck of MLB.com). Most notably, hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh and quality control coach Josh Paul will not return to the organization in 2023.

Meanwhile, assistant hitting coach Mike Hessman and third base coach Ramon Santiago will not be on the Major League coaching staff but have been offered new roles in player development. Gary Jones, who served as first base coach until being struck by liner that fractured his ankle in late May, will return to the big league staff in a to-be-determined role. Former big leaguer Alfredo Amezaga, who joined the Major League staff late in the season after serving as the Tigers’ Triple-A first base coach, will be the first base coach on next year’s big league staff.

The forthcoming addition of a new hitting coach and assistant hitting coach aren’t a surprise after a disastrous 2022 season in Detroit. Tigers batters ranked in the bottom six of all MLB teams in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, posting a combined .231/.286/.346 line in 2022. Detroit hitters ranked dead last in the Majors in home runs (110), runs scored (557), slugging percentage and wRC+ (81). Their 6.5% team walk rate was 29th in the Majors, ahead of only the White Sox, and their 24.1% team strikeout rate was the fourth-highest in Major League Baseball. Key young players like Riley Greene and especially Spencer Torkelson fell shy of expectations, while notable veterans like Javier Baez and Jonathan Schoop had some of the worst offensive output of their careers.

Reshaping the organization’s hitting hierarchy will be among the many initiatives on the docket for newly hired Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who replaced longtime general manager Al Avila. Harris, the former Giants general manager and Cubs assistant general manager, spoke at his introductory press conference about a need to emphasize development at all levels of the organization, including the Major Leagues. Installing new voices to work with the team’s hitters will be one of the first steps toward that end in what figures to be an active offseason throughout the Tigers organization.

34 Players Become Free Agents

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The Wild Card round of the 2022 postseason begins today, but for the majority of teams and players, the offseason is now underway. With that will come plenty of roster formalities, including veteran players who’ve been outrighted off their respective teams’ rosters reaching minor league free agency. This week, there have been 34 such instances throughout the league, per the transactions log at MiLB.com.

None of these are a surprise, to be clear. Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of Major League service time, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minors has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group of players falls under that umbrella. The majority of the group will likely find minor league deals over the winter, although a few of the players in question could potentially find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

There will be several more waves of players of this ilk, and we’ll make note of them in bunches over the coming weeks as we await the launch of Major League free agency, when all unsigned players with at least six years of Major League service time will reach the open market. For now, here’s the first of what will likely be several waves of newly minted minor league free agents:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Angels’ GM Perry Minasian On Ohtani, Rotation, Coaching Staff

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The Angels have already gotten a head start on some notable offseason business, both regarding the roster and its clubhouse leadership. In recent days, the Halos both avoided arbitration with the reigning AL MVP and finalized their managerial situation heading into 2023.

Over the weekend, the club and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani agreed to a $30MM salary for next season. The one-year pact avoided the possibility of what would’ve been the most fascinating arbitration case ever, with no clear precedent for a player of Ohtani’s talents. The sides won’t need to go anywhere near a hearing room, though, with the two-time All-Star instead agreeing to the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in big league history.

While the Halos are surely relieved to have Ohtani’s case settled, there are still plenty of questions about his long-term future in Orange County. The 2023 campaign is the final year in which he’s under club control, and Los Angeles heads into the winter coming off another disappointing season. General manager Perry Minasian met with reporters this afternoon (links via Sam Blum of the Athletic and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register), and while he didn’t offer any specifics about Ohtani’s situation, he unsurprisingly indicated he’d be thrilled to keep him beyond next season. “I think it’s Step 1,” Minasian said of avoiding arbitration. “Hopefully there are more steps down the road. … I’d love to have him here for a long time.”

That’s obviously not a firm declaration about Ohtani’s future, but it stands to reason Minasian and his staff will look to engage his reps at CAA at some point over the winter. They’ll surely receive calls from other teams inquiring about his availability in trade as well. The Halos obviously would’ve received ample interest in Ohtani at this past deadline, but owner Arte Moreno reportedly quashed any potential for a deal early in the process. Not long thereafter, Moreno announced he was looking into the possibility of selling the franchise.

Minasian told reporters he wasn’t aware of the status of the sales process, little surprise since he’s not involved in that decision. Asked whether it’d impact the club’s budget, the front office leader largely demurred. Minasian noted that ownership “still wants to put a good team on the field” and “is really competitive” but didn’t reveal any specifics about the franchise’s 2023 payroll outlook. The Halos opened the 2022 season with a player payroll north of $188MM, a franchise record figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They already have roughly $133MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s before accounting for an arbitration class that includes Luis Rengifo, Jared Walsh and Super Two qualifiers Taylor Ward and Patrick Sandoval.

Working in the Halos favor, however, is that Minasian and his group aren’t faced with the losses of too many key contributors. Aside from Kurt Suzuki, who has already announced his retirement, the Halos stand to see Michael Lorenzen, Matt Duffy and Archie Bradley hit the open market. Lorenzen is the only member of that group who was relatively effective this year. Signed to a $6.75MM free agent deal, he pitched to a 4.24 ERA across 18 starts. Minasian suggested they could look to retain him via free agency, although he also noted the team wasn’t firmly committed to redeploying a six-man rotation again next season. The Halos have run with a six-man staff in recent years, in part to reduce the workload Ohtani has to shoulder on the mound. “I wouldn’t rule it out,” the GM said of a five-man rotation. “But if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. There’s a balance there. Is the risk worth the reward?”

Minasian also addressed the coaching staff, noting that the club is still evaluating whether to make changes in that area. Phil Nevin will be back as skipper after signing a one-year deal yesterday, but it’s to be determined whether his staff will remain in place. Asked about the short term of Nevin’s first permanent managerial contract, Minasian said the club will “(see) where it goes next year and (go) from there, but my hope and my expectation is that this is a long-term thing.” Of course, the long-term future of the organization will be determined in large part by the direction any incoming ownership group plans to take. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests the franchise sale price could run as high as $2.5 billion, although the identities of the groups currently in talks with Moreno and his staff haven’t been publicly reported.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Hosmer, Casas, Coaching Staff, Catcher

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This afternoon, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, GM Brian O’Halloran, president Sam Kennedy, and manager Alex Cora spoke with the media (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic) to put a wrap on the 2022 season and provide clarity for the team’s offseason moves.

The quartet made it clear that Xander Bogaerts is a top priority, with Bloom stating that the Red Sox are “going to work really hard” at creating a deal with the long-term shortstop. Bloom continued, adding that he hopes that the Red Sox can get a deal done before the Bogaerts opts out and that the Bogaerts deal is “something that we can work on right away.”

Bogaerts had previously signed a six-year, $120MM extension in 2019 with an opt out after the 2022 season. The star shortstop has not officially stated whether he will exercise the opt out, but he’s a lock to do so and earn far more on the open market. Bogaerts said yesterday he and the team have not had any recent extension talks.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s longest-tenured player, having made his debut as a 20-year-old in August 2013 and winning two World Series with the club. Since his debut, the recently turned 30-year-old has continued to develop and post strong results, slashing .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs and 38 doubles in the 2022 season. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has posted a .301/.373/.508 slash line for a strong .880 OPS with 105 home runs, earning three All-Star berths and MVP consideration in the previous four seasons, finishing in fifth during the 2019 season.

If Bogaerts leaves the team, the Red Sox have options internally. Trevor Story, signed to a six-year, $140MM contract during the 2021 offseason, has considerable experience at short. However, Story has expressed a preference to remain at second and retain Bogaerts at short. Utility men Kiké Hernández and Christian Arroyo both have experience at shortstop, but neither produces an offensive output comparable to Bogaerts.

Additionally, Red Sox’s top prospect Marcelo Mayer, ranked as the seventh-best prospect by MLB.com, just finished his first full minor league season, posting a strong .280/.399/.489 line across Low-A and High-A. MLB.com currently projects the 19-year-old to make his debut during the 2024 season. However, Bloom said that prospects who are years away from the Majors will not impact the Red Sox’s approach to their 2023 team.

Transitioning to Rafael Devers, the slugger said on Wednesday that he’d be open to discussing a long-term deal this offseason (via Rob Bradford of WEEI). The Red Sox and Devers reportedly weren’t close during their Spring Training negotiations, but Bloom reiterated today “we would like to” explore a long-term deal with Devers, per Speier.

Devers is headed into his final season of arbitration eligibility, as Mookie Betts was before his blockbuster trade to the Dodgers. Bloom dismissed the possibility of trading Devers, saying that “isn’t on our radar” and that everything the team has done (farm system and payroll-wise) was conducted so that the team “is never in that position [of trading a player like Betts] again.” Bloom added that while it was always possible he’d receive a trade offer that was “stupid to walk away from,” Devers “is a guy that we want to build around.”

Unlike Bogaerts, the Red Sox have fewer internal options to replace Devers at the hot corner. Arroyo and Hernandez are capable of playing there, but, like is the case with shortstop, neither of them provides the offensive output that Devers brings to the team. Bobby Dalbec could be a contender for third base. However, the righty has yet to consistently produce at the major league level, slashing .232/.298/.456, buoyed by a strong .263/.359/.600 in his late 2020 debut season. Jeter Downs and Ryan Fitzgerald are both Triple-A candidates that could see some time if needed, but both will likely continue their development in Triple-A.

Similar to Meyer, ninth-best prospect Blaze Jordan just finished his first full minor league season. Across Low-A and High-A, the 19-year-old posted a combined .289/.363/.445 line. Jordan is also projected to make his debut during the 2024 season, which may be sped up to align with a Devers departure.

Moving to the other side of the infield, Bloom touched on the arrivals of Eric Hosmer and Triston Casas. “I don’t know yet,” he admitted when asked if there was room on the roster for two left-handed first basemen, per Christopher Smith of Mass Live. “Obviously, when we got Hoz, we were focused on what he could bring to us right now and not wanting to rush Triston. I think after that, Triston showed us in Triple-A, coming back off that injury once he got settled in, really the best we’ve seen from him or at least I’ve seen since I’ve been here. …  It’s something we’re going to have to look at.”

Hosmer was acquired at the trade deadline and posted a weak .244/.320/.331 line with the Red Sox in 45 at-bats. He arrived with three years remaining on his eight-year, $144MM contract that he signed in 2018 with the Padres, but San Diego is paying down all but the league minimum salary. Hosmer certainly won’t opt of the remaining $39MM on his deal, but Boston could move from the veteran at virtually no financial cost if they wanted to turn to Casas full time.

Casas is Boston’s second-best prospect, after Mayer, and is ranked as the No. 25 prospect by MLB.com. The slugger made his debut in early September and finished the season going 15-for-76 (.197) with 23 strikeouts. However, he had a strong 20% walk rate, a .358 on-base percentage, and sent five balls over the fence. Bloom stated that the Red Sox were happy with how Casas “progressed the last couple months of the season,” noting that “he was a tough at-bat every single time,” and that the team is “excited” to see how he learns from his brief experience in the Show.

Bloom also noted that the Red Sox “fully expect” they’ll look at the possibility of adding to their catching group externally, per Speier. He suggested the Red Sox see Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as having “raised the floor,” but left open the possibility of an impact addition. Willson Contreras is the clear top free agent available at the position, while deadline trade target Sean Murphy could again be made available by the A’s. McGuire has had a strong start to his Red Sox tenure, slashing a strong .337/.377/.500 for a .877 OPS with three homers in 98 at-bats. However, these high numbers are inflated by an astounding .411 BABIP. Wong has been less productive, posting a .188/.273/.315  line, with a high 28.6% strikeout rate.

Meanwhile, Cora announced that the Red Sox hope to bring back their entire coaching staff for the next season, per Chris Cotillo of Mass Live. However, it’s possible some members of the staff could get a chance to interview for managerial positions this winter. Bench coach Will Venable, in particular, has been a frequent candidate for managerial jobs in past offseasons.

Orioles Select Anthony Bemboom, Designate Anthony Castro

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The Baltimore Orioles have begun their offseason quickly, selecting catcher Anthony Bemboom from Triple-A Norfolk and designating right-hander Anthony Castro for assignment.

Bemboom joined the Orioles on a minor league contract in the offseason, making the Opening Day roster for the 2022 season before being designated for assignment with the arrival of Adley Rutschman. He passed through waivers unclaimed and was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk where he spent the rest of the season.

Bemboom had a poor showing in his limited time in the Majors this season, slashing .115/.207/.212 in 52 at-bats for a .418 OPS and throwing out three of eight runners attempting to steal.  This production was nothing unusual for the 32-year-old, with Bemboom posting a combined .160/.231/.265 slash line in 181 at-bats over parts of four seasons. In Norfolk, Bemboom produced a marginally better .228/.292/.350 line in 123 at-bats, but he is a career .247/.340/.392/.732 hitter in Triple-A.

This transaction prevents Bemboom from becoming a minor league free agent, and, with just over one year of Major League service time, the Orioles can retain him as a cheap backup to their star catcher if they keep him on the 40-man roster all winter. Current backup Robinson Chirinos is a pending free agent, and recent waiver claim Cam Gallagher is a non-tender candidate.

Castro joined the Orioles off waivers from the Guardians on September 3rd and was sent straight to Triple-A, not appearing at the Major League level with the Orioles. Nevertheless, he has pitched in each of the last three MLB seasons, all with different teams — the Tigers in 2020, the Blue Jays in 2021, and the Guardians in 2022.

In 2022 with the Guardians, Castro pitched to a 7.43 ERA in 13 1/3 innings with a poor 18.5% strikeout rate and a high 15.4% walk rate. Castro has had more success in Triple-A Norfolk, authoring a 2.16 ERA in 8 1/3 innings, striking out eight but walking eight. Castro will hit the waiver wire in the next couple days. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll be eligible for minor league free agency this winter and will likely sign another minor league deal with a Spring Training opportunity.

Rangers Make Pitching Coach Change

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The Rangers have announced that co-pitching coaches Doug Mathis and Brendan Sagara will not return in those roles next season. Mathis will not return to the organization in any capacity, while Sagara has been offered a different position within the organization. Moreover, first base coach Josh Johnson will move to an on-the-field minor league player development position that has yet to be determined. The remaining members of the coaching staff have been offered a chance to return with roles to be determined once the Rangers have completed their managerial search.

Mathis began his career in a playing role, starting with the Rangers Single-A minor league affiliate in 2006. He made his major league debut in 2008 and was shuttled on and off the field between 2008-2010, eventually spending time in the KBO, NPB, and CPBL before transitioning to coaching in 2017.

Contrastly, Sagara’s career has been largely coaching-based. Since college baseball at the University of Hawaii at Hilo, Sagara has been a coach in the Mets, Braves, Marlins, Cubs, and Rangers systems before being promoted to co-pitching coach for the Rangers in late 2020.

Johnson has been with the Rangers organization since 2019, beginning in Single-A and joining the major league team in mid-August 2022 after then-manager Chris Woodward was fired. Third base coach Tony Beasley moved up to interim manager, while Corey Ragsdale was moved to third base. Johnson came up from the minors to coach first base.

Mathis and Sagara were given the title of co-pitching coaches after the 2020 season, with then GM and President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels explaining that the team viewed the duo as having “some individual strengths” and that he considers the role as having “a lot to do, and it’s a bigger job than just one person,” per Levi Weaver of The Athletic.

However, since the start of the 2021 season, the pitching staff hasn’t had much success. Rangers’ starters have the fifth-highest ERA (4.98), eighth-lowest strikeout percentage (19.5%), and sixth-highest walk percentage (8.4%). Relievers have had slightly more success, with the Rangers’ bullpen issuing a slightly below-average 3.92 ERA, low 22.4% strikeout rate, and higher-than-average 9.5% walk rate.

Those struggles continued this season, with Texas’ rotation posting a 4.63 ERA in 2022. Free agent signee Martin Perez had a great season and Jon Gray was solid when healthy, but the back of the rotation was a problem all year. Dane Dunning, Glenn Otto, Taylor Hearn and former top prospect Spencer Howard all struggled during their work in the rotation.

It isn’t clear whether the Rangers will again look to deploy a co-pitching coach arrangement or identify one hire to assume the job. Daniels is no longer in the organization, with Chris Young now leading baseball operations. Of course, Young also has to decide how to proceed at manager. Beasley figures to get some consideration for the permanent position, but Young and his group could also look outside the organization for a new skipper.

Bloom: Bogaerts Is Red Sox’ Top Priority

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6:01pm: Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal writes that members of Boston’s ownership group have met with Bogaerts over the past week and expressed similar sentiments privately to Bloom’s public comments about the club viewing Bogaerts as its top priority. Those informal talks didn’t involve Bogaerts’ reps at the Boras Corporation, and McAdam writes that no specific contractual numbers were exchanged.

1:45pm: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said at today’s end-of-season presser that a new contract for Bogaerts is the team’s top priority, and the process of attempting to extend him will begin immediately (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Boston hopes to secure a new deal with Bogaerts before he can even formally exercise his opt-out provision, five days after the World Series ends.

12:45pm: Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of the three years and $60MM remaining on his contract after the postseason concludes, said following the final game of the season that he hasn’t had any recent talks with the Red Sox about a new contract (link via Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald). He’d indicated back in May that he was open to talks during the season. Bogaerts is planning to head home to Aruba in the next few days and enjoy a mental reset after a long season. “I need it more than a lot of years I’ve been here,” Bogaerts said of his upcoming time at home.

The 2022 season was a difficult one for the Red Sox, who went from missing the 2021 World Series by one game to a last-place finish in the American League East. Boston dealt with myriad injuries, as key names like Chris Sale, Trevor Story, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha  and Enrique Hernandez all spent ample time on the shelf. That said, there were far more than injuries at play. The Sox were hammered by bullpen issues all season, struggled to find quality rotation work beyond the quartet of Eovaldi, Wacha, Nick Pivetta and Rich Hill, and saw several hitters (e.g. Hernandez, Story, Bobby Dalbec, Alex Verdugo and J.D. Martinez) fall shy of their previous levels of contribution.

To a small extent, Bogaerts was part of that offensive downturn. Although he was excellent on the whole, hitting .307/.377/.456 in 631 plate appearances, he hit “only” 15 home runs this season — his lightest showing in the power department since 2017 (both in terms of home run total and ISO). Bogaerts saw declines in his exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, further supporting the dip in extra-base pop. That said, Bogaerts also picked up the pace in the season’s final couple months, and he and Rafael Devers were still the team’s two best players by a wide margin.

Bogaerts’ postgame comments yesterday contained two repeated themes: he hopes to remain with the Red Sox — the only organization he’s ever known — but is also a different player and person than he was when he signed his original contract extension. Bogaerts said at multiple points that he has grown and matured in recent seasons, adding that he’s “in a different mentality now than I was a couple years ago.”

Bogaerts is a veritable lock to opt out and test free agency. Nothing he said yesterday suggested anything to the contrary, and while the dip in power may be something of a red flag for interested teams, it’s only fair to point out that said downturn was accompanied by a major uptick in his defensive grades. Bogaerts posted negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average in each of the four seasons heading into 2022 but was strong across the board at shortstop in 2022 by measure of DRS (4), OAA (5) and Ultimate Zone Rating (5.4).

That could work to his favor in combating the narrative that he’ll need to move to either third base or second base — perhaps sooner than later. Some suitors may still prefer him at another position, and a willingness to play elsewhere can certainly bolster one’s market — just ask Story or Marcus Semien — but the 2022 campaign is a point in his favor if Bogaerts is intent on remaining at shortstop for the foreseeable future.

Regardless of his defensive home, Bogaerts’ bat should carry him to a longer-term, more-lucrative deal than the club-friendly extension he originally signed with the Sox a few years back. He’s been at least 29% better than average at the plate in each of the past five seasons, by measure of wRC+, posting a combined .300/.373/.507 slash with 105 long balls in that time. He’s also been quite durable, incurring just one injury (a small crack in his ankle in 2018) and playing in 91% of the Red Sox’ total games in that half-decade span.

The Red Sox’ public position on the matter has repeatedly been that the team hopes to sign Bogaerts, though the most recent extension offer from the team casts doubt on the plausibility of that outcome. Boston reportedly offered Bogaerts one additional year at a price of $30MM back in Spring Training. That’d have brought Bogaerts to four years and $90MM in total commitment, and it stands to reason that he could more than double that overall guarantee on the open market this winter as he heads into his age-30 season.

Boston has a bit less than $102MM in guaranteed contracts already on next year’s books, although Bogaerts accounts for $20MM of that sum. By 2024, they’ll be down to about $57MM (sans Bogaerts), and by 2025, Story’s contract is the last notable guarantee remaining on the books. The team is perhaps optimistically earmarking some payroll space for a Devers extension, but it’s plenty feasible that all three of Story, Bogaerts and Devers could fit onto the payroll — particularly for a big-market club with little in the way of other major guarantees for other players beyond the 2024 season.

If and when Bogaerts opts out, he’ll be eligible to receive a qualifying offer.  He’ll surely receive and reject that, positioning the Red Sox to receive some compensation if he departs as a free agent. However, because the Red Sox finished the 2022 season north of the $230MM luxury tax line (by a reported margin of about $4.5MM), they’d stand to receive a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds of next summer’s draft — as opposed to the pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 that they’d have otherwise received.

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