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Rangers Agree To Overslot Deal With Fourth-Rounder Brock Porter

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The Rangers have agreed to terms with fourth-round pick Brock Porter on a deal for just under $4MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Levi Weaver of the Athletic first reported earlier in the week that Porter was likely to sign for a bonus around $3.7MM. Wherever the number precisely checks in, it’s well overslot for the fourth round. The 109th overall pick, with which he was selected, comes with a slot value of just $560.2K. Porter’s deal will land seven-to-eight times north of that mark.

That Porter’s bonus shattered the slot value isn’t a coincidence, of course. While he didn’t hear his name called until well into the draft’s second day, he was unanimously regarded by public prospect evaluators as a first-round talent. He placed between 11th and 24th on the pre-draft rankings at each of Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. On talent, Porter fit in the middle of the first round. His reported bonus, which is commensurate with the slot values of the picks in the 15-18 range, more accurately reflects his regard than does his draft position.

Porter, 19, is a right-hander out of a Michigan high school. He’s among the top arms in this year’s class, with both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline slotting him as their #1 pitcher in a draft that skewed position player heavy. The 6’3″ hurler can run his fastball into the upper-90s and draws strong marks for his secondary offerings. Evaluators suggest both his changeup and slider should be above-average to plus offerings. He’s physically projectable and has a solid strike-throwing track record, giving him mid-rotation or better upside.

High school pitching is a particularly risky draft demographic, but Porter has among the higher ceilings of anyone in the class. It’s easy to see why the Rangers prioritized buying him out of his commitment to Clemson. Texas made the surprising decision to take Kumar Rocker with the third overall pick, agreeing to terms with the former Vanderbilt star on a $5.2MM bonus that was nearly $2.5MM below slot. Those savings and then some were reallocated to Porter, whom the Rangers took in the fourth round but with their second pick of the draft. Texas forfeited their second and third-round selections as payment for signing qualified free agents Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last offseason. Other teams were apparently unwilling to match the Rangers bonus offer to Porter in the middle rounds, which is why Texas was able to get him in the fourth.

Rocker and Porter add another pair of high-upside arms to a Rangers system that also placed last year’s #2 overall pick Jack Leiter and Owen White among Baseball America’s recent Top 100 prospects. Former first-rounder Cole Winn was ranked among the league’s top arms heading into this season, although his stock has dipped a bit as he’s been hit hard at Triple-A. There’ll surely be some ups and downs amongst that group, but it’s a collection of potential quality starters whom the club hopes will progressively bolster the position player core that has started to emerge at the big league level.

Nationals Listening To Offers On Kyle Finnegan

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With Juan Soto on the market, the Nationals will find themselves in plenty of headlines over the next two weeks. Soto is the crown jewel of this year’s potential trade candidates, and the Nats are also expected to part with impending free agent hitters Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz before the August 2 trade deadline.

While that trio (Soto in particular) will be the group that most intrigues fans of rival teams, they’re not the only trade candidates on the roster. The Nats are likely to be open to moving virtually any of their veteran role players, and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports they’re prepared to field offers on reliever Kyle Finnegan. One of Washington’s higher-leverage arms, Finnegan should hold some appeal to bullpen-needy contenders.

Signed to a major league contract over the 2019-20 offseason after a lengthy stint in the A’s farm system, Finnegan has spent the past few years in the nation’s capital. The right-hander has posted an ERA below 4.00 in all three big league seasons, and he’s generally been a durable arm for manager Dave Martinez. Aside from a two-week injured list due to a minor hamstring strain last year, Finnegan has avoided the IL as a big leaguer.

As for his appeal to rival clubs, that’s rather straightforward. Finnegan throws in the mid-90s, and he’s averaging a career-best 96.6 MPH on his sinker this season. Throughout his time in the big leagues, he’s posted slightly above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks, and he’s missing bats at a personal-best rate in 2022. Finnegan has punched out 28.3% of batters faced this year, a solid uptick over the 23.7% career mark he carried into the season. He has generated swinging strikes on 13.1% of his offerings, a bit above the 11.7% league average for relievers. His 47.9% grounder rate is also a few points higher than the typical mark.

While Finnegan has flashed the swing-and-miss and grounder upside in prior years, he’d been plagued by control issues from 2020-21. Finnegan doled out free passes to around 12% of opponents in each of his first two seasons, but he’s shown much improved strike-throwing through this season’s first few months. The Texas State product owns an 8.6% walk rate, a hair below the league average. A spike in home runs has resulted in a career-worst 3.93 ERA across 36 2/3 innings, but Finnegan’s combination of arm strength and solid underlying numbers make him an intriguing target for contenders.

His value is also buoyed by his affordability. Finnegan is making barely more than the league minimum salary, having not yet qualified for arbitration. He’ll reach arbitration for the first time at the end of the year and remains controllable through 2025. That window means the Nationals aren’t going to be as motivated to deal him this summer as they’ll be for some of their rental players, but there’s also little reason for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff not to discuss him with other teams. Finnegan’s late-blooming status means he’s soon to turn 31 years old. That the Nats are discussing Soto with other clubs suggests they’re open to a multi-year rebuild — and a Soto trade, if it happens, would formally signify they’re embarking on that course — and a good but not elite reliever isn’t going to be the kind of player the franchise prioritizes as a building block.

That would’ve also been true of fellow high-leverage arm Tanner Rainey, a hard-throwing righty who’s likewise arbitration-eligible through 2025. Rainey’s trade candidacy was dashed last week when he landed on the 60-day injured list with a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow. Dougherty writes that the Nationals had been preparing to shop Rainey this month, but he’s not expected to return this season and could require Tommy John surgery. That saps virtually all of his trade value, making Finnegan the undisputed top player in the Washington bullpen.

Presumably, the Nationals will also make their other late-game arms available. Víctor Arano has excellent strikeout and walk numbers but a 5.01 ERA. Steve Cishek, who’s playing this season on a $1.75MM salary, looks likely to move for a modest return. He’s missing bats, holding right-handed hitters to a .212/.307/.313 line, and will hit free agency at the end of the year. Carl Edwards Jr., who cracked the roster after signing a minor league deal, has a solid combination of strikeouts and grounders and could draw a bit of interest himself.

The Cubs Should Think About Selling High On Patrick Wisdom

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With a record of 35-57, the Cubs are 14 1/2 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central and 14 games out of a Wild Card spot. That makes them one of the more clearcut sellers at this year’s trade deadline.

Naturally, there were a number of Cubs featured on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates, with Willson Contreras, David Robertson, Mychal Givens and Ian Happ all making the cut. Contreras and Robertson are both hitting the open market at year’s end, with Givens almost certainly joining them. He has a mutual option for 2023 but those are almost never picked up by both sides. That makes them all logical trade candidates. Happ has an extra year of control but still makes sense to be on the block, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored. Taking players with limited control and turning them into prospects that can help in the long term is the standard playbook for losing teams.

They also have another player who could make sense as a trade chip, though for different reasons. Third baseman Patrick Wisdom is not nearing free agency. He came into this season with one year and 58 days of MLB service time, meaning he should finish this season at 2.058. He won’t even qualify for arbitration until after 2023 and is set to become a free agent after the 2026 campaign. The Cubs will almost certainly get out of this rebuild and return to contention at some point in that window, though Wisdom could still make sense to move given his unusual journey.

Wisdom was selected over a decade ago, when the Cardinals used the 52nd overall pick on him in the 2012 draft. He got a taste of affiliated ball that year, playing in Low-A, faring well enough to be ranked the 11th best Cardinals prospect in 2013 by Baseball America. However, he struggled as he climbed the minor league ladder and eventually fell off that list.

Wisdom always had power, but also strikeouts and low batting averages. In 2014, he got his first taste of Double-A, hitting 14 home runs but striking out 29.9% of the time, with a .215/.277/.367 line and wRC+ of 83. He repeated the level in 2015 and had fairly similar results. Going up to Triple-A in 2016, he missed time with injuries and only played 78 games, producing tepid results when on the field. 2017, his second shot at Triple-A, he showed some promise, hitting 31 homers and batting .243/.310/.507. He struck out 29.4% of the time but was still a bit above average, with a wRC+ of 105. He got a third stint with the Memphis Redbirds in 2018, reducing his striking rate a bit to 26.6% and increasing his batting average to .288.

That was enough to get him a call-up to the big leagues, where he fared very well. He hit four home runs in 32 games and slashed .260/.362/.520. Jumping to major league pitching made his strikeout rate tick up even higher, coming in at 32.8%, though he still produced a 142 wRC+ in his debut.

Blocked for playing time in St. Louis, the Cardinals traded him to the Rangers prior to the 2019 campaign. The new jersey didn’t help Wisdom, though, as he struggled badly as a Ranger. They only let him play nine games at the big league level, where he struck out in over half of plate appearances. Spending most of his time in Triple-A, he hit 31 home runs for the Nashville Sounds but struck out 27.6% of the time and hit .240/.332/.513 for a wRC+ of 97. Reaching free agency, he signed with the Mariners in 2020 but they designated for assignment before he appeared in a game with them. He then signed with the Cubs, appearing in just two games for them that season. He was designated for assignment again at the end of the year.

Then came 2021, which would prove to be a tremendous breakout for Wisdom. Re-signing with the Cubs on a minor league deal, he began the year in Triple-A. Injuries opened a roster spot for him in May, and the Cubs eventually underwent a massive deadline selloff, trading away Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. That opened up at-bats for Wisdom, who made the best of them. He would go on to hit 28 home runs and 13 doubles in 106 games, slashing .231/.305/.518. He still struck out a lot, even more than usual, in fact. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances last year, his 40.8% rate was the easily the highest, more than five points higher than the next guy on the list, Mike Zunino at 35.2%.

Wisdom has seemingly always had the same formula and this year is no exception. He’s hit 17 home runs and 18 doubles, slashing .220/.316/.441. Despite the low batting average, he provides enough power to be above average, as evidenced by his 111 wRC+. He’s improved his strikeout rate to 34.5%, though that’s still well above the league average mark of 22.3% and third in the league among qualified hitters.

Through all of those twists and turns and despite his flaws, Wisdom has turned himself into a productive big leaguer. He produced 2.2 wins above replacement last year, according to FanGraphs, and has racked up another 1.1 already this year. But due to the prolonged nature of his development, he is now 30 years old and turns 31 in August. Though the Cubs could conceivably have a very aggressive winter and get back into contention next year, it becomes more probable in 2024 and 2025, seasons in which Wisdom will celebrate his 33rd and 34th birthdays.

It’s entirely possible that Wisdom is still mashing dingers in those years, but rebuilding teams generally prefer to open a competitive window with players who are just entering their prime years and will remain productive core pieces for five, six, seven years into the future. Given his age, Wisdom would be a better fit on a win-now club. Getting Wisdom out of the way could also allow the Cubs to move Christopher Morel back to the dirt. An infielder throughout most of his minor league career, he’s hitting very well in his rookie season despite being pushed into more outfield work. He has -5 Outs Above Average on the grass this year, a -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -3.3 Ultimate Zone Rating.

There’s also the fact that Wisdom’s high-strikeout approach comes with volatility. Players that strike out at these incredible rates are prone to swoons in performance. Looking at last year’s highest strikeout rates among qualified hitters, you get Joey Gallo, Miguel Sano, Javier Baez, Matt Chapman, Adam Duvall and Tyler O’Neill. Other than Chapman, all of those guys are having disappointing seasons compared to last year, and Chapman’s is still disappointing compared to some of his previous seasons. Gallo had a 123 wRC+ last year but 85 this year, Sano went from 110 to 19, Baez from 116 to 74, Chapman from 101 to 102 (but was higher in the four previous season), Duvall from 103 to 87 and O’Neill from 144 to 87. In the case of Sano and O’Neill, injuries are playing a big factor, but it still demonstrates the unsustainability of this style of hitting.

For the Cubs, perhaps they should try to cash in the Wisdom chip before it cracks. There haven’t been any public rumors mentioning Wisdom, but there are a few fits that make sense. He largely plays third base but has also lined up at first base and the outfield.

The Mets are using Eduardo Escobar at third most of the time, who’s hitting just .224/.279/.397 on the year for a 94 wRC+. They’re also known to be looking for another bat to supplant Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis in the bench/DH mix. Wisdom could perhaps be viewed as a better version of Davis, who is striking out 31% of the time but has just three homers and eight doubles.

The Rays have been shuffling various guys through the hot corner, with Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes both having great seasons. Though Diaz also plays first base and Paredes second. If Brandon Lowe, fresh off the IL, is healthy enough to move to the outfield, that would help them cover for the injuries to Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez. Even if not, Wisdom would certainly be a better bench bat than Yu Chang and his batting line of .181/.253/.264. Of course, the low-spending Rays would certainly like Wisdom’s lack of a meaningful salary.

The Brewers are leading the Central due to their pitching but are just about league average offensively. They’ve been spreading at-bats around to Luis Urias, Jace Peterson and Mike Brosseau, though all of those three are capable of playing elsewhere. Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently reported the Brewers are open to moving Kolten Wong, which could open room for Wisdom to take some time at third and bump that trio into spending more time at second.

The Phillies keep trotting out Alec Bohm at the hot corner, who’s hitting .276/.311/.388 for a wRC+ of 92. His numbers were even worse before he went on a tear here in July, hitting .382/.421/.647 for the month. They’ll probably just stick with Bohm and hope he sustains that, but Wisdom would certainly fit financially. The Phils are in uncharted territory in terms of payroll, crossing the luxury tax line for the first time. Since Wisdom hasn’t yet reached arbitration, he wouldn’t stretch them in that regard.

The Rangers have been mixing veterans in at third all year but have given most of the playing time to rookie Josh Smith lately, who’s hitting at a below-average rate. They’re 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and probably sellers but could acquire Wisdom to see what happens down the stretch. He could also hold down the position next year while they wait to see what’s going on with Josh Jung. Their top position player prospect had a chance to be the Opening Day third baseman this year but suffered a shoulder injury in February. He underwent surgery and has yet to return to game action.

There are also a handful of teams that aren’t necessarily “win-now” in the strictest sense but could try to implement Wisdom next year. The Rockies, Orioles, Angels, Tigers and Diamondbacks all have long odds of cracking the postseason here in 2022 but are all likely to make moves towards competing next year.

Even if a team doesn’t have an obvious fit at the hot corner, he’d likely serve as an upgrade on one of their bench bats, even among the best teams in the league. The Dodgers, for instance, have Hanser Alberto who’s hitting .227/.236/.364 for a wRC+ of 66. The red-hot Yankees have Marwin Gonzalez and his .234/.301/.378 batting line, 95 wRC+. The Astros have rookie J.J. Matijevic, who’s hitting a tepid .150/.209/.350 for a wRC+ of 58. Limiting Wisdom to a part-time role could also improve his output, as he’s generally been better against lefties. He has a 120 wRC+ against southpaws and 106 against righties for his career, with a more pronounced 142-100 split this season, though he still strikes out a lot against both.

There’s certainly no urgency for the Cubs to work out a Wisdom trade right this second. They will no doubt be busy working out trades for Contreras, Robertson, Givens and Happ in the coming weeks. With Wisdom’s extra years of control, he’s certainly on the backburner in terms of priorities. However, given the volatile nature of his production, they could look to strike while the iron is hot.

Giants Sign Trevor Rosenthal

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The Giants announced to reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, that they have signed Trevor Rosenthal to a one-year, $4.5MM deal. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relays that there are performance bonuses worth $1MM based on games played. In a subsequent tweet, Shea provides details on the bonuses based on appearances, while adding that there’s a further $1MM available based on games finished. Rosenthal will receive $50K if he appears in 15 games and then again after his 18th game. He will received $150K after 23 games, $200K at 28, $250K at 33 and $300K at 38. As for games finished, it will be $100K for 12 games, $150K for 15, followed by $250K each after finishing 18, 21 and 24 games.

Rosenthal currently has a strained hamstring and is rehabbing in Arizona, per Pavlovic. He has been placed on the IL already and won’t require an active roster spot, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who adds that the corresponding move to get Rosenthal on the 40-man roster is that Mauricio Llovera has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Rosenthal was one of the better relievers in baseball for many seasons but has been on a rollercoaster for the past few years. From 2012 to 2017, he appeared in 328 games with a 2.99 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. He racked up 121 saves and 46 holds in that time

Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to that and wiped out his entire 2018 season. He returned in 2019 but walked a whopping 30.6% of batters faced over a stretch of 15 1/3 innings. After that disastrous return, he had to settle for a minor league deal with the Royals for 2020. He got the train back on the tracks so well that the Royals were able to flip him to the Padres at the deadline for Edward Olivares. Rosenthal finished the shortened season with a 1.90 ERA in 23 2/3 innings, with an incredible 41.8% strikeout rate.

Based on that comeback, Oakland signed him to a one-year, $11MM deal for the 2021 season. However, a groin strain kept him on the shelf at the beginning of the year, and he later required surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, wiping out yet another entire season.

Rosenthal had a showcase over a month ago to show that he had returned to health. The Giants have evidently been impressed by his progress, based on the fact that they were willing to slap down a significant chunk of change despite Rosenthal currently being injured. On the one hand, Rosenthal is capable of being an elite reliever, but on the other hand, he’s thrown less than 40 total innings over the past five seasons.

The Giants have run into some bullpen issues this year, making it fairly understandable that they’re willing to look outside the box for answers. Most notably, Jake McGee, who saved 31 games for them last year, ran up a 7.17 ERA this year and got released last week. Overall, the club’s relievers have a 4.19 ERA, placing the club 23rd in the majors. If Rosenthal can get healthy, he can provide a boost for them down the stretch.

As for Llovera, he was just placed on the IL a few days ago due to a flexor strain. Based on today’s transfer, it seems the club doesn’t expect him to be able to return until mid-September at the earliest.

The White Sox’ Corner Outfield Needs

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The 2022 season hasn’t gone at all as the White Sox hoped, but they nevertheless find themselves within striking distance of the AL Central lead, thanks largely to the underwhelming composition of the division as a whole. This comes despite designating fifth starter Dallas Keuchel for assignment after eight starts, despite receiving no production at all from their catchers and despite another injury-ravaged season from Eloy Jimenez (among many other issues).

Some of the White Sox’ struggles weren’t exactly impossible to forecast. Keuchel’s 2021 season was substandard, to say the least, for instance. The Sox were thin on depth behind their Opening Day rotation options, and to the front office’s credit, they struck the absolute jackpot in signing Johnny Cueto to a minor league deal. (Where would they be without his 74 innings of 2.80 ERA ball?)

Not every patchwork option has played out quite so nicely, however. Relying on Leury Garcia and Josh Harrison to hold down second base seemed questionable, at best, and the results are worse than most could’ve imagined. There was no reason to expect Garcia to suddenly become one of the absolute worst hitters in the Majors, but he’s at .205/.232/.262, and the resulting 39 wRC+ (61% worse than league-average) is third-worst in MLB (min. 200 plate appearances). Harrison is better utilized as a utility player, but Garcia’s struggles have increased his role. In Harrison’s defense, his .260/.339/.420 slash against lefties is quite good, and with a better platoon partner he’d be a solid part-time piece. His .223/.293/.350 slash against fellow righties, however, is obviously problematic.

Still, the greatest area of need on this team isn’t second base at the moment, but rather in the corner outfield, where the team’s solution to an offseason need appeared quite sound at the time. When the Sox flipped embattled reliever Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in exchange for outfielder AJ Pollock, it looked as though they’d killed two birds with one stone. Jettisoning Kimbrel following last year’s struggles was a clear priority for the South Siders, and they did so by acquiring a veteran who’d posted a .272/.330/.499 batting line over the past half decade — including an even better .290/.342/.547 slash in his final two seasons with the Dodgers. The trade even saved the White Sox a million dollars; it was hard to find fault with the deal.

Unfortunately, we’ve reached the “even the best laid plans” cliche territory with how that swap has worked out. Pollock missed 10 days with a hamstring strain early in the season and, when healthy, has floundered through the worst season of his 11-year Major League career. In 272 plate appearances, he’s batting just .227/.268/.333 with career-lows in walk rate (5.1%) and hard-hit rate (37.7%). Pollock has already tied a career-worst with 14 infield flies. A whopping 18.2% of the fly-balls he’s hit this season have been classified as infield flies, effectively rendering them automatic outs.

Beyond the glut of pop-ups and dearth of walks, Pollock’s sprint speed has dropped in 2022 — perhaps not an unexpected result for a 34-year-old outfielder who has now thrice been on the injured list with hamstring strains dating back to Opening Day 2021. Statcast measures Pollocks’ average sprint speed at 27.5 feet per second — down from the 28.1 ft/sec he posted in the four seasons prior. It’s not a massive dip, but for a player who derives value from his wheels. Pollock is hitting just .193 on grounders this year — his worst mark since 2017. From 2018-21, he batted no worse than .243 on grounders in a single season and hit .276 on grounders overall. That may not be solely attributable to the dip in his sprint speed, but losing that extra step can’t help his cause.

For all of Pollock’s struggles, however, there’s another reason the Sox need to find an alternative in the outfield: his contract. Considering this year’s performance, it should be a given that Pollock will exercise the $10MM player option on his contract. That’s already onerous enough, but Pollock can boost the value of that option even further, tacking on an additional million dollars for reaching each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s at 272 plate appearances right now, so he’s surely not going to reach the top thresholds of that bonus structure, but he could certainly reach 400 or perhaps even 450 plate appearances and tack on another $1-2MM to that option’s value.

There’s no escaping that option for the White Sox, either, barring an unlikely salary dump. Because it’s a player option, the base value is considered guaranteed money. Just as the Padres can’t simply release Eric Hosmer and be free of the $39MM he’s owed after the opt-out clause he has at the end of the current season, the ChiSox can’t cut Pollock and avoid the $10MM he’s promised for next season. If another team were to claim him on waivers, that team would assume responsibility of that player option, but Pollock’s struggles would lead to him going unclaimed.

Beyond that, there’s good reason for the Sox to actually hang onto Pollock — this season’s struggles notwithstanding. While his overall productivity has been poor, Pollock has hit .274/.297/.532 against lefties. Even though just 64 of his 272 plate appearances have come versus southpaws, all four of his homers and four of his 13 doubles have come when holding the platoon advantage. Pollock has crushed lefties throughout his career (.285/.335/.522), so it’s not a surprise to see that trend continue, even as his fate against right-handed opponents has taken a tumble.

The Sox might have been hopeful that Gavin Sheets could serve as a left-handed-hitting corner outfield complement if needed, but he’s hitting just .229/.296/.388 against righties this season. And, as a 6’5″, 230-pound first baseman whose first professional appearance in the outfield was only last season, Sheets has predictably turned in poor defensive marks in 276 innings (-5 Defensive Runs Saved, -4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating, -3 Outs Above Average).

The trade market for outfielders isn’t as robust as it has been in seasons past, but there are still some solid lefty-swinging options who could pair well with Pollock to help boost the ChiSox’ fortunes against righties. Andrew Benintendi is the most talked-about member of the bunch, but Cincinnati’s Tyler Naquin is another above-average hitter against righties whose $4MM salary is more affordable than Benintendi’s $8.5MM mark. Arizona’s David Peralta, Baltimore’s Anthony Santander and Washington’s Yadiel Hernandez are all options as well, though the Orioles’ recent winning streak might dissuade them from moving controllable pieces like Santander and Hernandez may not be deemed a big enough upgrade over Sheets.

Whatever names the Sox decide to target, salary figures to be a part of the equation. Chicago’s payroll is already at a franchise-record $194MM, and they already have a hefty $117MM of guaranteed salary on the books in 2023. That doesn’t include Pollock’s player option or the no-brainer decision to pick up Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option — nor does it include arbitration raises for key players like Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech (among others) or a potential deal to bring back stalwart first baseman Jose Abreu, who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

Given those forthcoming financial obligations and a farm system that’s regarded as one of the worst in the league (if not the worst), the White Sox aren’t likely to factor prominently into the Juan Soto bidding. However, a short-term, lefty-hitting corner outfielder to pair with righties Pollock, Jimenez, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn and Adam Engel would still be useful for a White Sox team that carries an underwhelming .250/.303/.368 batting line against right-handed pitching this season.

Orioles Agree To Terms With First Overall Pick Jackson Holliday

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The Orioles have reached an agreement Jackson Holliday, the first overall selection of the 2022 MLB draft, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Holliday will get a bonus “just a touch” higher than the $8.185MM received by Druw Jones, the second overall pick. Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Sun reports that the bonus is $8.19MM.

The #1 overall pick came with an accompanying slot value of $8.84MM. It seems like the Orioles will save around $650K to spread around to some of their other draft picks.

The Orioles have a bonus pool of $16.933MM at their disposal, the largest amount for this year’s draft. Teams are allowed to outspend their pool by as much as 5% without losing future draft picks, although there is a 75% tax on the overage. That means the Orioles can spend around $17.78MM in bonuses, though it seems Holliday will take close to half of that.

Holliday, 18, is a second generation baseball talent, as he’s the son of long-time big leaguer Matt Holliday. The left-handed hitting shortstop was ranked the #3 player in the draft class by Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, #2 by FanGraphs and #6 by The Athletic. BA compliments all aspects of his game, giving him at least 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale in the five categories for position players (60 hit, 55 power, 60 run, 55 field and 60 arm).

Holliday had committed to Oklahoma State but will seemingly forgo that commitment to join an Orioles organization that keeps swelling with talent. Adley Rutschman recently graduated out of prospect status but was considered by many to be the top prospect in the game prior to that. Even without Rutschman, the O’s have four players on the top 100 list at BA, with pitchers Grayson Rodriguez (#4) and DL Hall (#51) slotted in along with shortstops Gunnar Henderson (#7) and Jordan Westburg (#97).

Yankees Reinstate Domingo Germán, Designate Ryan Weber

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The Yankees announced a couple of roster moves between games of today’s double-header against the Astros. Right-hander Domingo Germán was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, with fellow righty Ryan Weber being designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Germán, 29, is starting the second game of the twin bill, which will be his season debut. He’s been on the injured list all season due to shoulder issues. That’s the latest in a series of setbacks that have kept him from living up to the promise he showed a few years ago. In 2019, he threw 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 38.1% ground ball rate.

However, in September of that year, he was placed on administrative leave for violating the Joint MLB-MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy. He missed the entirety of the 2020 campaign while serving his suspension. He returned in 2021 but was limited by shoulder issues to 98 1/3 innings, with his ERA jumping to 4.58 in that stretch.

He recently began a rehab assignment and has been getting stretched out as a starter, throwing six innings in his last outing. He likely has a chance to stick around for a while, as long as he performs well enough. The Yankees have had incredible health in their rotation this year but recently suffered their first injury setback. Luis Severino was placed on the 15-day IL last week with a lat strain and likely won’t begin throwing again until August, manager Aaron Boone told Lindsey Adler of The Athletic.

For now, he’ll slot into the rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery. His performance and Severino’s health could determine how long he sticks around, though there’s also the possibility of the club adding an arm before the August 2 trade deadline. The Yankees have already been connected to Luis Castillo, the top available hurler. Germán still has an option and can be sent down if he gets nudged from the rotation.

As for Weber, he’s bounced on and off the roster all season, with this being the third time he’s been designated for assignment by the Yanks this year. The previous two instances, he cleared waivers and stuck with the team, later getting selected back to the bigs. In between those transactions, he’s thrown 7 2/3 innings in the big leagues with a 1.17 ERA. His 7.7% strikeout rate is very low, but he’s limited walks to a miniscule 3.8% rate and is getting ground balls at a decent 60.9% clip. He’s also thrown 24 2/3 Triple-A innings on the year, with a 2.55 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, 1% walk rate and 47.4% grounder rate. The Yankees will have one week to trade him, pass him through waivers or release him. If he clears waivers, he will have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, but might just stick with Yanks, based on precedent.

Write For MLB Trade Rumors

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UPDATE: We are also seeking a writer who is available to work every Saturday from 7am-3pm central time.  Ultimately, we’re likely to make two hires.  If you’re interested in either the Saturday or the Sunday shift, please apply.  We have not yet looked at all the applications that we’ve received so far, but those who are advancing to the second round should hear back next week.

We’re looking to add to the MLBTR writing team, in a part-time position that pays hourly.  The criteria:

  • Availability to work every Sunday from 7am-3pm central time.  This would be your regular weekly shift.  The ability to occasionally fill in on Saturdays as well would be helpful.
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Latest On Juan Soto’s Market

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Ever since it emerged that the Nationals are willing to entertain trade offers on Juan Soto, the whole baseball world has been obsessed with trying to figure out where he could go and what a fair trade would even look like. That likely won’t change, with Soto rumors sure to continue flying every day until the August 2 deadline, unless a trade is completed sooner.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at the situation, outlining how Soto is arguably the most attractive trade chip in recent memory or perhaps ever. Given his talent, youth and remaining years of control, just about every team is going to be calling the Nats and getting a feel for what kind of deal they’re looking to make.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the discussions have begun and, unsurprisingly, Soto is drawing widespread interest. He lists the Mariners, Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees and Mets as seven teams that have already opened up the lines of communication with Washington.

None of those are particularly surprising, with all seven of them having been listed by Adams as being among the best fits. There is a potential complicating factor in the talks, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Nationals want to combine Soto with Patrick Corbin in trades, in order to get Corbin’s contract off their books. As an additional detail, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post looks at the pros and cons of including Corbin in the deal, adding that Corbin has a partial no-trade clause. Despite that, Dougherty adds that this won’t prevent a deal from coming together, implying that either Corbin’s clause is minimal enough to not include the primary suitors, or perhaps that he would be willing to waive the clause and move to a new club with Soto.

While the Nationals are surely open to moving Corbin and getting out from under his contract, it’s unclear how important that is to them. Signed to a six-year, $140MM contract prior to 2019, the first season was a resounding success. Corbin threw 202 innings with a 3.25 ERA, then added another 23 1/3 frames in the postseason as the Nats won the first World Series title in the history of the franchise. It’s been essentially all downhill since then, however, with Corbin’s strikeouts disappearing and ERA escalating. After strikeout rates of 30.8% in 2018 and 28.5% in 2019, he’s been hovering around 20% in the three subsequent seasons. His ERA shot up to 4.66 in 2020, then 5.82 last year and 5.87 this year.

As for Corbin’s contract, it was heavily backloaded. His salary this year is $23.42MM, leaving approximately $8MM to be paid out from the deadline onwards. Then he’ll make $24.42MM next year and a big jump to $35.42 in 2024. That’s the last year of the deal, though there’s also $10MM in deferred money to be paid out from November of 2024 to January of 2026.

The combination of Corbin’s poor performance and hefty salary give him negative trade value. As such, any Corbin-Soto combo trade will lead to the Nationals recouping a lesser prospect package than a trade involving Soto alone. On the surface, it seems strange that the Nats would be strongly motivated towards such a scenario. Trading Soto means giving up on being competitive through 2024 anyhow, so getting Corbin’s contract off the books for that season shouldn’t be a high priority. With Soto out of the picture, the only other meaningful salary they will be paying in 2024 and beyond is going to Stephen Strasburg, who’s getting $35MM per year through 2026. Spending $70MM to Strasburg and Corbin in 2024 surely isn’t ideal, but the rest of the roster will likely be filled out with pre-arb players or those who have just qualified and earned minimal raises. The club ran a payroll of $183MM as recently as last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and has already stripped it down to $135MM this year.

But if the Nats are indeed motivated to get that money off the ledger ahead of schedule, it will change the calculus of which teams make the most sense as trading partners. Teams on the receiving end will be taking on two meaningful salaries, as Soto is well-paid himself. He’s earning $17.1MM this year and will be due arbitration raises in the next two campaigns, possibly getting near the $25MM range next year and above $30MM for 2024, as long as he stays healthy. Even for the rest of this campaign, Soto will have about $6MM left to be paid out at the time of the deadline. Combined with the approximately $8MM owed to Corbin, that will add $14MM to this year’s payroll for any team acquiring both.

As Steve Adams highlighted in the piece linked above, all seven teams that Nightengale listed have marquee young players that could headline a return in a Soto deal. The prospect of taking Corbin in return might be more exciting to some than others, however. The Padres crossed the luxury tax line last year and have been right up against it this year, seemingly loath to cross it for a second straight season and therefore facing escalating penalties. They’ve been rumored to be trying to trade away one of their pitchers in order to create payroll space for additions elsewhere. Suddenly acquiring another expensive starter, and one who isn’t pitching well, would fly in the face of those plans. Although, perhaps Soto’s availability is such a unique situation that it makes them rethink everything.

The Cardinals had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM, per Cot’s, which is a bit shy of their $164MM record. Adding $14MM to get into record territory is likely an acceptable outcome this year, but would become complicated in the years to come. Adam Wainwright’s $17.5MM is the biggest contract coming off the books at the end of the year, but there would likely be mutual interest in another deal, based on precedent. He’s having another excellent season and would likely command a similar contract. Yadier Molina’s $10MM is coming off the books, though Soto and Corbin would add about $50MM onto it, and the Cards would still have to figure out a solution behind the plate.

The Mets already have a massive payroll but don’t seem to have any limitations in that regard. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed a willingness to spend beyond the fourth CBT barrier, which the club is already right on top of. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource calculates their CBT number as $290.1MM, a smidge over the $290MM barrier. Regardless of the financial picture, however, there’s the question of whether the Nats have any interest in trading Soto within the division. Andy Martino of SNY reports that Soto landing with the Mets is extremely unlikely, with the Nats not keen on seeing Soto return to Washington so frequently with a new uniform.

The Giants and Mariners might be in a better position than these other teams to take on meaningful salary in order to get Soto. The Giants had a payroll of $155MM on Opening Day, per Cot’s, but were up at $201MM a few years ago. They also have some decent money coming off the books this winter. Carlos Rodon is making $21.5MM and can opt out if he reaches 110 innings pitched. Given that he’s currently at 105 and having another excellent season, he’s a virtual lock to trigger that opt-out. Brandon Belt accepted the $18.4MM qualifying offer and will return to the open market in a few months. Brandon Crawford is making $16MM this year and next, but a free agent after that. The only guaranteed contract they have on the books for 2024 is the $12MM owed to Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners opened the year at $104MM, per Cot’s, but have been in the $150-160 range in recent years.

As for the Yankees and Dodgers, they’re both running franchise-high payrolls but might still like the idea of Corbin’s contract being involved. Recent reporting has suggested both clubs are leery of decimating their farm systems in order to acquire Soto, despite his talents. Taking on Corbin and reducing the prospect hit should appeal to both clubs.

Of course, all this still seems to be exploratory on the part of the Nationals. Getting rid of Corbin’s money surely has appeal, but they will also have to weigh that against the offers they get that don’t involve Corbin. If one teams offers, say, six good prospects but doesn’t want Corbin, would the Nats really take a less package just to get Corbin out the door? There’s at least some precedent, given that the Red Sox included David Price in the Mookie Betts deal. However, the situations are not entirely analogous, as the Red Sox had gone over the luxury tax in the two previous seasons and were primarily interested in tearing down their roster for the cost savings. For the Nats, they are already operating with a budget well below previous seasons and should theoretically be more concerned with maximizing their prospect return in any Soto deal.

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