Mariners Acquire Kolten Wong For Jesse Winker, Abraham Toro
The Mariners and Brewers announced a trade sending second baseman Kolten Wong and cash considerations from Milwaukee to Seattle in exchange for outfielder Jesse Winker and infielder Abraham Toro. The Brewers are reportedly sending about $1.75MM to the Mariners, which effectively makes this a cash-neutral swap.
The 32-year-old Wong is owed a $10MM salary after the Brewers exercised a club option on him following the season. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Winker, meanwhile, is owed $8.25MM in 2023 after inking a two-year deal covering his final arbitration seasons last year. Like Wong, he’s ticketed for free agency next winter. Toro, on the other hand, is not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled for another four seasons.
Wong was a natural target for the Mariners, given their lack of an obvious starter at second base and their desire to add some balance to a lineup that skews a bit right-handed. He’ll give the M’s a steady presence, quite possibly atop the lineup, on the heels of the two best offensive seasons of his career. During his two years as a Brewer, Wong slashed a combined .262/.337/.439 with 29 home runs, 56 doubles, six triples and 29 steals.
With the Brewers, Wong seemingly made a concerted effort to begin elevating the ball with more frequency. His ground-ball rate, which had sat around 47% in St. Louis, dropped to a career-low 41.8% this past season, and Wong made noticeable gains in both his line-drive rate and especially his fly-ball rate as a member of the Brewers. As one would expect, the increased number of balls in the air also increased Wong’s power output. His .177 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) in two years with the Brewers was substantially higher than the .123 mark he carried in parts of eight seasons with the Cardinals.
On the defensive side of the game, however, the 2022 season was a bizarre and borderline nightmarish one for Wong. Typically one of the game’s best defenders at his position, Wong made a stunning 17 errors — more than he’d totaled in the three prior seasons combined. When his option was picked up, Wong told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak that his legs weren’t fully healthy in 2022, which he felt contributed to his surprising defensive shortcomings (Twitter links). Wong missed time in June with a calf strain that sent him to the injured list, and it’s certainly plausible that his legs cost him some of his typical defensive excellence.
It was a similar tale for Winker in 2022, as injuries weighed down his production in what will now be his lone season as a Mariner. Acquired alongside Eugenio Suarez in a trade that sent pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley and righty Justin Dunn to Cincinnati, Winker (perhaps literally) limped through the weakest offensive season of his career before undergoing left knee surgery and a second procedure to address a bulging disc in his neck back in October.
The extent to which those injuries dogged Winker can’t be known for certain, but the former Reds slugger went from one of the game’s best hitters against right-handed pitching to a lackluster .219/.344/.344 batting line with the Mariners in 2022.
Winker’s defense was also impacted; he’s never been considered a plus defender in the outfield corners, but he logged career-worst marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-7.2) and Outs Above Average (-10) in the Emerald City. Beyond Winker’s deteriorating performance on the field, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported in October the manner in which Winker had fallen out of favor in the Seattle clubhouse.
The decline was swift and fairly stunning. In the two seasons prior to being acquired by the Mariners, Winker was one of the game’s three best hitters against right-handed pitching, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in terms of wRC+. He posted a video game-esque .321/.417/.619 batting line in 509 plate appearances against righties in that span, and while his production against fellow lefties was nowhere near that level, he still walked at a 12% clip against them, resulting in a .314 OBP. His .199 average and .338 slugging against lefties were dismal, but at the very least, Winker could get on base at a near-average clip even in disadvantageous platoon matchups.
The Brewers’ hope will be that the pair of surgeries and an offseason of rest and rehab will get Winker back to the form he showed when he was a thorn in their side as a member of the division-rival Reds. Only time will tell, however, whether Winker is indeed able to rebound.
If Winker is unable to return to form, the Brewers can still pin some hopes on Toro — another rebound candidate looking to benefit from a change of scenery. The switch-hitting 25-year-old (26 later this month) was one of the top prospects in the Astros’ system for several years but never got the opportunity to establish himself for a Houston club that had Alex Bregman at third base and Jose Altuve at second base — Toro’s primary positions. The Astros traded Toro and veteran reliever Joe Smith to the Mariners in a controversial deadline swap that saw Seattle send then-closer Kendall Graveman and righty Rafael Montero to Houston in return.
There were plenty of parallels between that Toro trade and the 2022 trade that saw the Brewers send Josh Hader to San Diego. As was the case with Brewers fans this year, Mariners fans — and the clubhouse — were angered to see the closer of a contending club traded to another postseason contender, even though both the Mariners (Smith, Toro) and Brewers (Taylor Rogers, Esteury Ruiz, Robert Gasser) received some immediate MLB help and long-term prospect value in the return.
Unfortunately for the Mariners, Toro wasn’t ever able to fully cement himself as a regular fixture in the lineup. He caught fire with the Mariners immediately following the trade, even connecting on a memorable go-ahead grand slam against Graveman himself just one month after the trade. The 2022 season, however, saw Toro receive infrequent playing time and struggle to a .185/.239/.324 slash in 352 plate appearances. That said, he’s not far removed from being a well-regarded prospect, is still in his mid-20s, and carries a career .343/.451/.545 batting line in Triple-A, so there’s reason to hope he could yet break through.
Toro does have a minor league option remaining, so it’s not a lock that he’ll open the ’23 season on the Brewers’ roster, but he’ll head to Spring Training competing for time at either second base or third base. Both he and Luis Urias have ample experience at both positions, but the ideal defensive alignment would be Toro at third base and Urias at second base. Of course, it’s possible that the Brewers will deepen their infield mix with further moves this offseason, and top infield prospect Brice Turang could factor into the mix at second base early in the season, too, after hitting .286/.360/.412 in Triple-A last season.
In all likelihood, the trade is just one amid a series of moves for both clubs involved. The Mariners were open to adding another outfield bat even before trading Winker, and they could now even more clearly accommodate a notable bat in left field or at designated hitter. The Brewers, meanwhile, have focused thus far on trimming the margins of the payroll and extracting some modest value for players whom they feel they’re able to replace in-house (e.g. Wong, Hunter Renfroe).
It’s no doubt been a frustrating start to the winter for many Milwaukee fans, but the Brewers have thus far moved on from players who were controllable through 2023 only. They’ve scaled back payroll to an extent in doing so, and the question will now be one of how — or if — they reallocate those dollars. It’s possible they’ll even turn and flip Winker to another club, but they’ve not yet shown any indication of a full-on rebuild, so at some point it seems likely the Brewers will make some at-least modest upgrades to the roster.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the Brewers and Mariners were in discussions about a trade involving Wong and Winker. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Mariners were acquiring Wong for Winker and Toro. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Brewers were including roughly $1.75MM in the deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Orioles Outright Daz Cameron
The Orioles announced that outfielder Daz Cameron has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Norfolk.
Cameron, 26 in January, was just claimed off waivers from the Tigers a few weeks ago. He was the 37th overall pick in 2015, taken by the Astros when Baltimore’s general manager Mike Elias was working for Houston.
As a prospect, Cameron was expected to have a solid floor thanks to his speed and defense but with development needed at the plate. The Tigers decided to take a chance on that profile by acquiring Cameron in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade. Unfortunately, the bat hasn’t taken the necessary step forward. In 73 MLB games thus far, he’s hit just .201/.266/.330 with a Triple-A line that’s only slightly better at .236/.324/.398.
Despite those tepid results, Cameron is still young and could be a nice piece for the O’s. Even without a huge development with the bat, his speed and defense could make him a candidate for fourth outfielder duty. Since he was out of options, he wasn’t going to be able to be shuttled back and forth between the majors and minors next year, but the Orioles can now keep him as depth without him taking up a roster spot.
Phillies Claim Jake Cave
The Phillies have claimed outfielder Jake Cave off waivers from the Orioles, per announcements from both teams. The addition of Cave brings Philadelphia’s 40-man roster to a total of 38 players.
Cave, who’ll turn 30 on Sunday, never suited up in a game for the Orioles. Baltimore had claimed him off waivers from the Twins earlier this season and apparently tried to sneak him through waivers themselves in hopes of keeping him without allocating a 40-man roster spot to the longtime Twins backup.
Cave has appeared in parts of five big league seasons, all coming with the Twins, who acquired him from the Yankees in a 2018 trade that sent Luis Gil to New York. Cave was an outstanding fourth outfielder for the Twins in 2018-19, appearing in 163 games, taking 537 plate appearances and batting .262/.329/.466 with 21 homers, 27 doubles and four triples.
In 2020, Cave’s production fell off, however, and he’s never regained his form. Over the past three seasons, he’s turned in a tepid .206/.252/.352 batting line while punching out in 32.4% of his plate appearances. As is so often the case, injuries are at least partly to blame for the downturn in production; Cave landed on the injured list with a fracture in his lower back in May of 2021 and missed multiple months as a result of the injury.
Cave was arbitration-eligible this offseason, but the Orioles proactively signed him to a split Major League contract for the 2023 season. That contract, which contains different rates of pay for time in the Majors versus time in Triple-A, was surely signed by the Orioles with an eye toward getting Cave through waivers and keeping him as a depth piece. The O’s opted for the same tactic with catcher Anthony Bemboom and had success with it, passing him through waivers mere weeks after agreeing to terms on a 2023 contract. It (clearly) did not work that way in the case of Cave.
The general idea behind such a move is seemingly to offer slightly larger rates of pay that both discourage other teams from claiming depth options the Orioles value and hope to stash in the upper minors and to also encourage those players to accept outright assignments. Both Bemboom and Cave have previously been outrighted and thus are thus able to refuse outright assignments, but the larger rates of pay on the split deal serve as incentive to instead accept the outright. (Since neither player has five years of Major League service, refusing the outright assignment in favor of free agency would mean forfeiting any money owed to them on that split deal, and a new contract with a new team would likely come at a lower rate.)
Instead, for Cave, things will work out even better, as he’ll land on a team that perhaps has greater designs on carrying him on its MLB roster. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots, has some power and will give the team a potential late-game defensive option in lieu of sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos when both are in the lineup and starting in the outfield corners. It’s possible the Phillies will try to pass Cave through waivers themselves or designate him for assignment if they acquire someone they deem to be a better option as a backup outfielder, but for now, Cave appears likely to occupy a spot on manager Rob Thomson’s bench in 2023.
Brewers Outright Alex Jackson
The Brewers have outrighted catcher Alex Jackson, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Jackson, 27 later this month, spent time in the majors with the Braves and Marlins prior to this season. Just as the 2022 campaign was about to kick off, the Brewers got the unfortunate news that Pedro Severino had been handed an 80-game suspension for failing a test for performance-enhancing drugs. They suddenly had to scramble to address their catching corps and quickly traded for both Victor Caratini and Jackson. Unfortunately, Jackson dealt with multiple injuries this year and only got into 38 games with just five of those coming at the major league level.
Prospect reports at Baseball America indicate that Jackson’s best tool is his raw power, which shows up in batting practice but rarely in games. He did hit 28 Triple-A home runs in 2019 and then another 11 in just 30 games in 2021. However, in his 66 major league games, he’s gone deep just three times and has a batting line of .141/.243/.227.
There hadn’t been any previous indication that Jackson had been removed from the roster but the club evidently passed him through waivers recently. He’ll remain in the organization as depth but without occupying a spot on the 40-man, which is now down to 37. Hogg notes that Jackson will receive an invite to major league Spring Training. With this move, the Brewers now have three catchers on their roster: Caratini, Payton Henry and Mario Feliciano.
Padres Notes: Shortstops, Turner, Stammen
The Padres have been rumored to be a surprise entrant in the market for the “Big Four” shortstops and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says this could “possibly even” include Trea Turner.
Since the Friars were recently connected to the shortstop market generally and Xander Bogaerts specifically, it’s not shocking that they would have some degree of interest in Turner as well. However, despite the “Big Four” shortstops often being lumped together, there’s a difference between them. MLBTR predicted Turner and Carlos Correa to earn $32MM per season or higher while Bogaerts is projected at an average annual value of $27MM and Dansby Swanson at $22MM.
Those might seem like small differences but they are magnified for a Padres team that paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two years. The CBT system features escalating penalties for repeat payors, with a third consecutive year over the line resulting in a 50% tax for every dollar over. The Padres currently have a CBT number of $230MM, according to Roster Resource, just $3MM shy of this year’s lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. The second threshold is $253MM, something that the Padres would certainly go over if they add one of the top shortstops, at which point their spending would be subject to a 62% tax.
Since the Padres are also looking to upgrade their rotation, it’s always seemed hard to picture them laying out a huge contract for a shortstop and paying such a tax premium to do so. There’s also the on-field fit, which isn’t super smooth since they have Ha-Seong Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstop options. It’s been suggested they could add a shortstop and play Kim at second, Jake Cronenworth at first base and Tatis in the outfield, but it’s probably easier to just sign a first baseman or a left fielder.
Elsewhere in Padres news, Rosenthal reports in a separate column that the club is likely to re-sign reliever Craig Stammen. The veteran, who turns 39 in March, recently spoke about his desire to return in 2023 despite dealing with a shoulder injury in the second half of the season. He’s been in San Diego for six seasons now and it seems like there’s interest on both sides in making it seven.
Orioles Claim Lewin Diaz
The Orioles have claimed first baseman Lewin Diaz off waivers from the Pirates, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link).
Diaz, 26, was a fairly high-profile amateur signing by the Twins back in 2013, inking a $1.4MM bonus and headlining their 2013-14 international free agency class. He ranked among Minnesota’s top prospects for several years due to his power potential and a plus glove at first base, but the Twins flipped him to Miami in a 2019 trade that netted them veteran reliever Sergio Romo and pitching prospect Chris Vallimont.
With the Marlins, Diaz elevated his profile early on before scuffling through parts of three Major League auditions. He’s logged big league time each season since 2020 but produced only a .181/.227/.340 batting line with a 28.9% strikeout rate against just a 5.5% walk rate. Despite his 6’4″ frame and considerable raw power potential, Diaz hasn’t yet hit the ball with much authority in the Majors; he does have 13 home runs in 343 plate appearances, but Diaz’s average exit velocity (88.1 mph), barrel rate (8%) and hard-hit rate (32.6%) are all pedestrian, at best. He’s also been quite prone to pop-ups, with more of his fly-balls (14.4%) registering as infield flies than as home runs (11.7%).
That said, Diaz only just turned 26 years old and has at least one demonstrably excellent skill that’ll play at the Major League level: his glove. He’s only logged 753 Major League innings at first base but still has eye-popping totals in Defensive Runs Saved (16) and Outs Above Average (9). The offensive profile is still quite clearly a work in progress, but Diaz is a .250/.325/.504 hitter in two Triple-A seasons.
The Orioles have been looking for a left-handed bat who can play some first base and perhaps in the outfield corners, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Diaz won’t help in the latter regard, but he’ll give them a lefty bat who can spend some time at first base — if he makes it to Spring Training on the 40-man roster, that is. He’s already been jettisoned from a pair of teams so far this offseason, and it’s possible the O’s consider him a temporary safety net while they continue to hunt for a more established option (as was seemingly the case with the Pirates, who designated Diaz for assignment after signing Carlos Santana).
Diaz is out of minor league options, so he’ll either have to make a team’s Opening Day roster next year or eventually be passed through waivers unclaimed, at which point that team could then stash him Triple-A without committing a 40-man roster spot.
Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Market
Next week’s Winter Meetings are expected to open the floodgates for some hot stove activity, and among the free agents drawing substantial interest leading up to those meetings is longtime Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. The 31-year-old (32 next month) has a “robust” market, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, and colleague Buster Olney tweets that there’s a growing belief he’ll be able to secure a three-year contract — perhaps in the vicinity of $15MM per year.
Haniger has, to this point in the offseason, been linked to each of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Rangers and the Mariners, who are open to adding another outfielder even after acquiring Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays last month. The Halos’ interest, it should be noted, was reported prior to their acquisition of Hunter Renfroe. It seems likely that move probably put an end to their pursuit of Haniger; the Angels also have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward locked into outfield spots and Shohei Ohtani at DH, of course.
Even presuming the Angels are out of the running, that’d leave at least five teams — and quite likely a few more — in the mix for Haniger, who missed substantial time this season due to a high ankle sprain but has generally been an above-average to excellent hitter when healthy enough to take the field. Dating back to 2017, Haniger boasts a .263/.337/.480 batting line — 24% better than league average by measure of wRC+, which weights for his pitcher-friendly home park. Haniger belted 39 home runs in a season as recently as 2021 and is one of the few outfielders on this offseason’s market who can be viewed as a viable 30-homer threat.
Of course, the knock on Haniger has been his ability to remain on the field — or rather, his lack thereof. Haniger’s 2019 season was cut short when he sustained a ruptured testicle after a poorly placed foul ball off his own bat. Just two months later, while rehabbing from the subsequent surgery, Haniger experienced back discomfort and learned that he’d torn an adductor muscle off the bone. The fallout from that second injury snowballed and ultimately saw Haniger require core muscle/hernia surgery and a microdiscectomy operation.
It was one of the more bizarre and also fluky sequences of injuries for any player in recent memory, but the end result was still a 22-month absence from the playing field for Haniger. He returned with that aforementioned 39-homer campaign, however, and has posted a combined .251/.316/.47o slash with 50 homers in 938 trips to the plate since coming back from that nightmarish run of health troubles. Haniger’s once-premium defensive ratings dipped in 2021, but he posted positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (2) in this year’s small sample of 396 innings.
Heading into the offseason, MLBTR ranked Haniger 20th on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a three-year contract at an annual rate of $13MM. Olney’s report suggests that Haniger’s market could be reaching if not pushing a bit beyond that level. If interest is indeed ramping up to that extent, it stands to reason that Haniger could be one of many free agents to come off the board during next week’s Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.
Dodgers Sign Shelby Miller To Major League Deal
December 2: The Dodgers have officially announced the signing of Miller to a one-year, $1.5MM deal.
December 1: Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the incentives are worth $100K.
November 29: The Dodgers are in agreement with free agent reliever Shelby Miller on a major league contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, reportedly comes with a $1.5MM base salary and additional performance bonuses.
Miller will step right onto the 40-man roster despite not having had much recent MLB experience. He’s made just 17 appearances at the game’s highest level over the last three years. That includes four late-season appearances with the Giants in 2022. Selected onto the big league roster for the season’s final two weeks, he was called upon four times in San Francisco.
The right-hander allowed five runs in seven innings for the Giants, but he struck out 14 while walking just three. That came in spite of a lackluster 8.4% swinging strike rate, but Miller excelled at freezing batters on pitches inside the strike zone. Opponents offered at just over half the would-be strikes he threw, well shy of the 68.8% league average for relievers.
He’s almost certainly not going to maintain that pace over a full season, but he flashed some ability to keep MLB hitters off balance with a pared-down repertoire. Miller featured only two pitches — a low-80s slider and a four-seam that averaged a bit above 94 MPH — during this year’s MLB action. He also found a fair bit of success in the upper minors, striking out an excellent 32.4% of opponents en route to a 3.62 ERA across 32 1/3 frames with the Giants’ top affiliate in Sacramento.
That was enough to intrigue multiple teams. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported last week the 32-year-old had major league offers on the table from two clubs. The Giants weren’t one of them, at least at that time, preferring to give him a Spring Training invitation to compete for a roster spot. Miller won’t have to do so in L.A., as he’ll receive a guaranteed salary and presumably be penciled directly into the big league bullpen. As a player with more than five years of MLB service time, he’ll have to remain in the majors or be designated for assignment. The Dodgers wouldn’t have offered an MLB deal if they didn’t anticipate he’d make the Opening Day roster.
While Miller’s brief MLB work and Triple-A numbers from this past season make him an interesting depth flier, he’s far from a sure thing to cement himself in the middle innings mix for skipper Dave Roberts. Miller has appeared at the MLB level in 10 of the past 11 years — only missing the shortened 2020 campaign — but he’s not found sustained success since 2015. One of the sport’s better young starters during his early days with the Cardinals and Braves, Miller saw his career go off track after the infamous deal that sent him to Arizona and landed Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte in Atlanta.
After posting a 6.05 ERA in 20 starts during his debut season with the D-Backs, he lost most of the 2017-18 campaigns rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He was tattooed for an 8.59 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 44 frames for the Rangers in 2019, and it was a similar story during an abbreviated look with the Cubs and Pirates in 2021. All told, he owns a 7.02 ERA in 65 appearances with five teams since the end of the 2015 season. He’s worked almost exclusively in relief for two consecutive years.
Los Angeles relievers posted a 2.87 ERA this past season, the second-lowest mark in the majors. Their 26.7% strikeout rate placed fourth, with Evan Phillips and Yency Almonte breaking out alongside the more established Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol as late-inning arms. The Dodgers are also welcoming back Daniel Hudson from a season-ending ACL injury, giving them a decent number of high-upside relief options.
With the potential free agent departures of Craig Kimbrel, Tommy Kahnle and Chris Martin and the likelihood of a lost season for Blake Treinen, L.A. figures to continue trying to stockpile middle innings depth. Even factoring in Miller’s modest salary, Los Angeles has a bit under $153MM in estimated payroll commitments for next season. Finalizing their agreement with Clayton Kershaw is expected to tack on around $20MM to that mark, but there’s still plenty of room for bigger splashes at shortstop and in the starting rotation.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers and Miller were in agreement on a big league contract. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN was first to report it contained a $1.5MM base salary with performance bonuses.
Red Sox Outright Ronaldo Hernandez
The Red Sox announced to reporters, including Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe, that catcher Ronaldo Hernandez has been outrighted to Triple-A Worcester. Their 40-man roster is now at 39.
Hernandez, 25, was a Rays prospect who they added to their 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft in November of 2019. He was acquired by the Red Sox prior to the 2021 season in the deal that sent Jeffrey Springs to Tampa. In his first year in Boston’s system, things went quite well for Hernandez. In 99 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .284/.326/.501 for a wRC+ of 122. However, he took a step back in 2022, hitting .261/.297/.451 for a wRC+ of 93.
Prospect reports on Hernandez have indicated that his blocking and receiving need some work but his power at the plate continued to draw strong marks. He did still hit 17 long balls this year, but he’s never really been able to draw many walks, as indicated by this year’s 4.8% rate. The Red Sox have long had Christian Vázquez as their primary backstop but traded him to the Astros this year and he’s now a free agent. With the outright of Hernandez, they’re left with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as the two catchers on their 40-man roster at present.
There had been no public indication that Hernandez had been designated for assignment or placed on waivers but he evidently was passed through in recent days. Hernandez will stick in the organization as depth but without taking up a roster spot. With a spot open, the Sox could potentially be lining up a signing but it also could be with an eye towards next week’s Rule 5 draft. Boston grabbed Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in the 2020 version of the Rule 5.
Cardinals Interested In José Quintana Reunion
The Cardinals acquired left-hander José Quintana at the deadline and were evidently pleased with their brief relationship with him. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of The New York Post mention that the Cardinals are interested in bringing Quintana back, though Heyman notes that they have competition for his services.
Quintana, 34 in January, endured a rough two-year stretch in 2020 and 2021. A thumb injury limited him to 10 innings in the former and his ERA ballooned up to 6.43 in the latter. The Pirates took a flier on him in 2022 with a $2MM deal to act as a stabilizing veteran force in their rotation of inexperienced youngsters. That plan went about as well as could have been hoped, with Quintana bouncing back and turning himself into a deadline trade chip, going to the Cardinals alongside Chris Stratton for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez.
MLBTR’s Simon Hampton recently took a thorough look at Quintana’s season, which finished with a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings. Quintana’s 20.2% strikeout rate was a couple of ticks below league average, but his 46.4% ground ball rate was strong. The Cardinals are known for their defensive prowess and Quintana’s grounder-heavy approach worked better after the uniform switch, as he had a 3.50 ERA as a Pirate and 2.01 as a Cardinal.
Though it was just 12 starts, Quintana and the Cards seemed to be a good match for each other. It makes sense that there would be some mutual interest in a reunion, though the roster fit in St. Louis would be imperfect at the moment. The club already has a number of rotation candidates, including Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz and Dakota Hudson, as well as prospects like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson.
Hudson had a poor year in 2022 and could be best utilized as a long man in the bullpen who could jump into the rotation in case of an injury. However, it would be harder to justify bumping any of the other five. Wainwright, Mikolas and Montgomery are all coming off solid seasons and seem to have jobs locked down. Matz had an injury marred season in 2022 but he still has three years and $34MM remaining on the four-year deal he signed with them a year ago. Given their investment, they will surely give him a chance to bounce back with better health going forward. Flaherty has been dealing with injuries over the past three seasons but pitched like an ace when he was last healthy in 2019.
As Rosenthal notes, four of these pitchers are free agents at the end of 2023: Wainwright, Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty. As of right now, the 2024 rotation would be Hudson and Matz, with three openings available for prospects to potentially fill. Perhaps that means they would consider signing a starter to help them now and next year, though that would likely mean they have to find a trading partner for one of those other four to create space in the short term.
Even though Quintana’s entering his age-34 season, his bounceback was solid enough that MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM contract for him. He’s part of a large group of mid-rotation candidates available in free agency this winter, including Ross Stripling, Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, Jameson Taillon and others. The market seems to be strong so far, as Tyler Anderson secured a three-year, $39MM deal despite having a qualifying offer attached and Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays, easily beating our two-year, $22MM prediction. Mike Clevinger got one year and $12MM, just ahead of our $10MM prediction, and Matthew Boyd got $10MM despite not even cracking our top 50. Though the Cardinals clearly like Quintana, the fit is a little awkward and they’re surely not the only team calling him up. The Pirates also reportedly have interest in a reunion and there’s no shortage of sensible fits beyond that. The Cards’ payroll is currently around $154MM, per Roster Resource. That’s almost even with last year’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated payroll will be going up this year.