Mariners, Diamondbacks Swap Kyle Lewis, Cooper Hummel
The Mariners and Diamondbacks have swapped young big leaguers, announcing agreement on a one-for-one deal moving outfielder/DH Kyle Lewis to Arizona. The Mariners bring back catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel in return.
Lewis is the more well-known of the players involved. Seattle’s first-round pick in 2016, he bounced back from an ACL tear in his right knee suffered during his first professional season to climb the minor league ranks. The Mercer University product made it to the big leagues late in the 2019 season, and he looked as if he’d cemented himself as a key piece of the organization the following year.
During the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Lewis appeared in 58 games and tallied 242 plate appearances. He connected on 11 home runs and walked in a fantastic 14% of his trips en route to a .262/.364/.437 line. That offensive production was 27 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+, and it earned him the American League Rookie of the Year award.
Few would’ve imagined Lewis would only spend two more years in Seattle coming off that season, but he’s rapidly fallen down the depth chart. That’s less due to performance than an unfortunate series of injuries in his right knee, which has proven consistently problematic. Lewis began the 2021 campaign on the injured list, and an April return proved brief. He went back on the shelf in early June, and the M’s subsequently announced he’d suffered a meniscus tear. He ended up missing the remainder of the season and wasn’t recovered in time for the start of this year.
Lewis opened the 2022 campaign back on the IL. He was reinstated on May 25, nearly a full calendar year since his previous MLB game. After a handful of games, he unfortunately suffered a concussion and spent another two months on the IL. Lewis returned in late July, played in 14 more games, then was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. He spent the rest of the season there but had a solid showing, putting up a .245/.362/.517 line with 12 homers through 42 games there.
There’s obvious risk for the D-Backs in taking on a player who has appeared in just 54 MLB contests over the past two years. He’s never topped 58 big league games in a season and has only 130 career games and 526 plate appearances under his belt. Yet it’s similarly easy to see the appeal for general manager Mike Hazen and his group in rolling the dice on Lewis’ upside. During his lone healthy season, he showed the obvious power and plate discipline that made him such a well-regarded prospect. There’s a fair bit of swing-and-miss in his game, but he has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order caliber bat if healthy.
Lewis spent some time in center field as a minor leaguer and early in his big league career, but he was almost exclusively a designated hitter this past season. He’s capable of factoring into the corner outfield and could perhaps still moonlight up the middle if necessary, but the Diamondbacks aren’t going to rely on him in center field much — if at all. Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas are all talented defenders, and Carroll and Varsho figure to get a particularly strong amount of playing time up the middle. Hazen has expressed a willingness to deal one of those players if it nets him help elsewhere on the roster, but Arizona’s depth of plus defenders should give them the chance to mostly keep Lewis off his feet as a DH.
Adding some right-handed pop was also a key offseason objective for Arizona, and Lewis could be a long-term righty power bat in the desert. He’s still just 27 years old and has two years and 146 days of major league service time. That qualifies him for early arbitration as a Super Two player, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for just a $1.2MM salary. He’s arbitration eligible through 2026, and the early-career injuries have kept Lewis from building the kind of resume that’d be handsomely rewarded through that process thus far.
Lewis’ departure will be jarring for Mariners fans, but it looked increasingly likely Seattle could subtract from the corner outfield after acquiring Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays yesterday. As another right-handed hitting right fielder/DH, Hernández made Lewis an arguably superfluous presence on the roster. Julio Rodríguez has cemented himself as the franchise center fielder, and the M’s still have a number of internal options — Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore — as left field possibilities. The M’s have reportedly floated Winker’s name in trade talks, but they could either look into a left field upgrade or rely on some of their younger options even if they send the former Red elsewhere.
In exchange for Lewis, they bring in a player with a bit more defensive flexibility. Hummel, 28 next month, was first drafted by the Brewers in 2016. Arizona acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline in a deal that sent veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar to Milwaukee. The right-handed hitter was sitting on a .254/.435/.508 line in Triple-A at the time, and the Snakes gave him his first big league chance this year.
Hummel scuffled over his first 66 MLB games, hitting just .176/.274/.307 with three homers in 201 plate appearances. He struck out in a huge 31.8% of his plate appearances during that time, but he walked at a strong 11.4% clip. Hummel also continued to hit well with Arizona’s top minor league affiliate, posting a .310/.423/.527 line in 33 games in Reno. In a bit more than 500 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level, the Oregon native has a .310/.429/.540 line with an incredible 16.7% walk rate.
On the defensive side of the ball, Hummel has split his time between catcher and the corner outfield. He got 14 MLB starts behind the dish and 17 apiece in left field and designated hitter. Prospect evaluators have never considered Hummel a likely everyday catcher, but the M’s don’t need him to be with Cal Raleigh as their franchise backstop. Hummel can factor in as an occasional catcher and corner outfield option off the bench, and he can still be optioned to the minor leagues in each of the next two years. He’s a flexible depth piece who has less than a full year of big league service. He won’t qualify for arbitration until at least after the 2024 season.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the D-Backs and Mariners were swapping Lewis and Hummel.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
White Sox Planning To Keep Garrett Crochet In Bullpen For 2023
The White Sox face some questions about their starting rotation this offseason, with the group’s lack of depth needing to be addressed from the outside. Dylan Cease doubled down on his 2021 breakout to finish second in AL Cy Young voting. He’s a true ace, while Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn will look to bounce back from uncharacteristically middling seasons to reestablish themselves as above-average arms in the middle of the staff.
Michael Kopech figures to assume the #4 rotation spot, but the club doesn’t have a great option at fifth starter after seeing Johnny Cueto hit free agency. Davis Martin is the in-house favorite for that role, but general manager Rick Hahn told reporters at last week’s GM Meetings the club would look to plug the hole with an outside addition.
One option that does not seem to be on the table is stretching left-hander Garrett Crochet out as a starter at any point next season. Pitching coach Ethan Katz told reporters this afternoon he doesn’t “think starting is in the cards next year” for the hard-throwing 23-year-old (link via James Fegan of the Athletic). Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery this past April. He’s presently stretched out to throwing from 120 feet, tweets MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, but he nevertheless seems unlikely to be on the Opening Day roster just 12 months removed from surgery. Once he’s healthy, it looks as if the White Sox will return him to a bullpen role in which he’s had plenty of success in his young career.
The 11th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Crochet made his big league debut as a reliever with the Sox just a few months after coming out of the University of Tennessee. He mostly stayed in that role for 2021, working 54 1/3 innings of 2.82 ERA ball over 54 appearances. There was some thought the Sox could consider lengthening Crochet into rotation work this past season, but he was diagnosed with the ligament damage in his elbow a few days before the start of the season. He went under the knife just before Opening Day and didn’t pitch this year.
Crochet only made one 3 1/3-inning start during his final season of college. He missed the first few weeks of that season with injury, and the pandemic resulted in the cancelation of the college baseball season almost immediately upon his return to the mound. With no minor league campaign that year, he threw a combined 9 1/3 innings between college and MLB. Factor in his 54 1/3 frames last year, and Crochet has just 63 2/3 innings under his belt since the end of the 2019 campaign.
With such a limited platform, it’s sensible for the White Sox to opt against trying to build him towards a rotation workload at any point in 2023. At the same time, it also raises the question of whether such a move will ever be practicable. Many prospect evaluators suggested Crochet could be better suited for relief work dating back to his time in Knoxville, but the White Sox presumably wouldn’t have drafted him so highly if they didn’t feel he had at least some chance of starting. The unfortunately-timed Tommy John surgery has killed any possibility of that to this point, and Crochet will have already topped three years of MLB service by the end of next season.
Of course, Crochet can be a valuable piece of the Sox’s pitching staff even if he’s limited to shorter stints. He’s already demonstrated the capacity to handle big league hitters, punching out 28.3% of opponents behind an 11.9% swinging strike rate and a fastball that averaged just under 97 MPH in 2021. Crochet only once faced more than eight batters in an outing that year, but Katz indicated the club could deploy him a multi-inning relief role next season.
The White Sox have some experience in building a talented power arm back gradually from an extended layoff. Kopech followed a fairly similar path. He started his first four big league games in 2018 but underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of that year. He spent all of 2019 rehabbing and then opted out of the 2020 season. The Sox worked him back from that two-year absence as a multi-inning reliever, giving him 69 1/3 innings through 44 appearances in 2021. He made the full-time move to the rotation this past season, building to 119 1/3 frames over 25 starts.
Kopech’s year was cut short by injury. Originally placed on the injured list in mid-September with a shoulder strain, he underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee just before the season ended. The initial expectation was the right-hander would be ready for Spring Training, and while that may still be the case, Katz conceded today Kopech’s recovery has involved “a little slower progression than we originally thought.” The pitching coach noted the team still expects Kopech to have sufficient time to build up to five-inning appearances by the end of exhibition play, but any uncertainty on that front would only increase the team’s urgency to add rotation depth this offseason.
Mets Meet With Kodai Senga
The Mets recently sat down with free agent starter Kodai Senga in New York, reports Will Sammon of the Athletic. Andy Martino of SNY first reported earlier this week that New York and Senga’s camp would sit down.
Senga, 30 in January, recently wrapped up his 11th season in Nippon Professional Baseball. He had a 2.59 ERA in over 1000 career innings at Japan’s highest level. Senga’s coming off a particularly excellent platform campaign, working to a 1.94 ERA through 144 frames with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He punched out an above-average 27.5% of batters faced against a manageable 8.6% walk rate.
Evaluators have raised some concerns about Senga’s command and breaking ball, but his combination of an upper-90s fastball and a split-finger offering have drawn plenty of praise. Between his excellent NPB performance and quality raw stuff, he figures to be of interest to virtually every team with a rotation need. The right-hander has already found a wide array of interest as he tests the market in preparation for his jump to Major League Baseball. The Mets join the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Mariners and Padres as teams known to be involved in his market to some extent.
The Mets figure to cast a wide net in their search for return help, as the starting staff is facing a high degree of possible turnover. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and swingman Trevor Williams all hit the open market — deGrom and Bassitt after declining qualifying offers. Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are presently the only locks for the season-opening rotation, with David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto among the depth options who could get a look. New York is sure to retain or add at least two starters (and quite likely three) from outside the organization over the coming months, and they’ve also been tied to former Dodger southpaw Andrew Heaney.
Senga, it bears remembering, is a true free agent after reaching nine years of service time in Japan. Unlike with players made available a year or more early via the posting system, signing Senga will not require an MLB team to provide any kind of financial compensation to the Hawks.
Guardians Release Kirk McCarty
NOVEMBER 17: McCarty has been released, according to the transactions log at MLB.com.
NOVEMBER 15: The Guardians announced a series of roster moves in setting their 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft. In addition to tonight’s pair of trades — Nolan Jones to the Rockies; Carlos Vargas to the D-backs — Cleveland has designated lefties Anthony Gose and Kirk McCarty for assignment. The series of subtractions from the 40-man paves the way for the Guardians to select the contracts of infielder Angel Martinez and lefties Joey Cantillo and Tim Herrin. Cleveland also selected infielder Juan Brito, whom they acquired from Colorado in exchange for Jones. The team’s 40-man roster is at capacity.
It’s been quite the year for McCarty, from a transactions standpoint. Originally called to the Majors as a Covid replacement in April, McCarty was returned to the minors shortly thereafter but formally selected to the 40-man roster the following month. Cleveland designated him for assignment on July 3, after which he was claimed by the Orioles, who designated him for assignment just nine days later and lost him on waivers… back to the Guardians. Beyond that series of moves, McCarty was optioned to the minors on four separate occasions over the course of his roller coaster season.
The 27-year-old McCarty generated decent but unspectacular results at the big league level in his his rookie effort this year, logging a 4.54 ERA in 37 2/3 frames. His 16.4% strikeout rate was well below average, but he turned in a respectable 8.2% walk rate. McCarty has well above-average spin on his fastball and curveball, but he doesn’t throw especially hard or miss many bats, and the 2.63 HR/9 he yielded this season is an obvious red flag. He was solid in Triple-A (3.52 ERA in 65 1/3 innings) and does have multiple minor league option years remaining, so another club in need of some left-handed depth could conceivably take a look.
Gose, 32, was one of baseball’s feel-good stories in recent years. Originally a second-round pick and top prospect as an outfielder, his career stalled out after he was unable to produce much at the plate in the Majors or in the upper minors. Gose, a two-way star in high school who some scouts preferred as a pitcher in the draft, got back on the mound in A-ball as a 26-year-old in 2017 and, after taking several years to refine his command and learn to control his blazing fastball, finally made it back to the big leagues in 2021.
Gose didn’t just return to the Majors last year, though. He tossed 6 2/3 innings out of the Cleveland bullpen and allowed just a run on two hits and two walks with nine strikeouts and a heater that averaged 99.2 mph. It was a small sample, of course, but Gose stormed out of the gates in 2022 with 20 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball and a 31.4% strikeout rate. Walks looked like an issue (14%), but by that point Gose’s big league pitching career consisted of 27 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 36 strikeouts.
The Yankees pounced on Gose for four runs in his next outing, however, after which he landed on the injured list. The Guardians initially characterized the move as one made out of necessity with a doubleheader looming, but Gose’s absence proved protracted, and more than two months after he was shelved, the team announced Gose had undergone Tommy John surgery. The Sept. 14 date of the procedure all but formally rules Gose out for the 2023 campaign, so it’s no surprise to see the Guardians open his roster spot in this fashion.
Joining the Guardians’ 40-man roster are two of their top 30 prospects — Martinez and Cantillo — as well as a lefty reliever (Herrin) who posted eye-popping numbers in Double-A. Baseball America ranks Martinez 12th in Cleveland’s system and Cantillo 15th. Martinez hit .278/.378/.471 as a 20-year-old between High-A and Double-A this season. Cantillo was limited to just 60 2/3 innings by a shoulder strain this season but made 14 appearances (13 starts) with a 1.93 ERA and 35.5% strikeout rate. Herrin, 26, turned in a 2.01 ERA and 41.6% strikeout rate in 22 1/3 Double-A innings before being bumped to Triple-A, where he recorded a 4.98 ERA and “just” a 30.9% strikeout rate in 47 frames.
Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP
AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.
Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.
It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.
Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.
Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.
Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.
Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.
Full voting breakdown available here.
Paul Goldschmidt Wins NL MVP
Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been named the National League’s Most Valuable Player, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He was followed in the voting by Manny Machado of the Padres and his teammate Nolan Arenado.
Though he’s come close many times, this is the first MVP award for the veteran, who just turned 35 in September. Though he’s older than the typical prime years of most athletes, he had arguably the best campaign of his career in 2022. He hit 35 home runs and produced a .317/.404/.578 batting line. That production was an incredible 77% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 177 wRC+. When combined with his solid defense at first base, he was considered to be worth 7.1 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and 7.8 in the estimation of Baseball Reference.
Goldschmidt finished second among qualified NL batters in on-base percentage, trailing only Freddie Freeman. He led the league in slugging and tied for fifth in longballs. Along the way, he was named to his seventh All-Star game. Goldschmidt secured a fifth career Silver Slugger award and has appeared on MVP ballots each season going back to 2015. He’s under contract for two more years on the five-year extension he inked shortly after St. Louis acquired him from the Diamondbacks in a franchise-altering trade.
Machado secured a runner-up finish, the highest of his career to date. He’s now gotten into the top five in the voting on four separate occasions, including two of his four seasons in San Diego. He hit .298/.366/.531 with 32 homers and 37 doubles, appearing in 150 games. Machado finished 7th in the NL in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He earned his sixth career All-Star nod in the process.
Arenado picked up his 10th straight Gold Glove award this year with a typically excellent season at the hot corner. He also had arguably the best offensive year of his career, putting up a .293/.358/.533 line over 620 plate appearances. Only Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts topped him in slugging, while he finished ninth in on-base percentage. Arenado secured his seventh All-Star selection and fourth top-five MVP finish.
Goldschmidt picked up 22 of 30 first-place votes, while Machado secured seven votes. Arenado was the other player who got a first-place nod. Freeman finished in fourth overall and was penciled into six ballots in second place. Betts rounded out the top five, while Mets star Pete Alonso (who finished eighth) was the only other player to get a second-place vote. Austin Riley, J.T. Realmuto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara placed sixth through tenth, respectively.
Full voting breakdown available here.
Orioles Outright Mark Kolozsvary
The Orioles announced that catcher Mark Kolozsvary has been outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. There wasn’t any public indication he’d been designated for assignment but the O’s apparently passed him through waivers in recent days.
Kolozsvary, 27, is the third catcher that the Orioles have outrighted this month. Cam Gallagher and Anthony Bemboom were also deprived of their spots in recent weeks, leaving Adley Rutschman as the only backstop remaining on the 40-man roster.
Kolozsvary was a seventh round draft pick of the Reds who made his MLB debut this year, getting into 10 games at the big league level while being frequently optioned to the minors. Around those options, he got into 46 minor league games and hit .163/.303/.279. He has yet to appear in an Orioles uniform since he was claimed off waivers after the conclusion of the regular season.
The is the first outright of his career and he lacks the necessary service time to have the right to reject it. That means he will stay in the organization as depth. Gallagher rejected his assignment but Bemboom accepted his, meaning Bemboom and Kolozsvary will still be around to compete for the backup catching job behind Rutschman in the spring. Though it’s possible the club makes other additions to the squad between now and then.
Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
The Braves’ efforts to repeat as World Series champions fell short with a four-game Division Series loss to the Phillies. While it was a disappointing finish, there’s plenty of reason for optimism carrying into next season. The Braves won 101 games and were scorching hot from June onwards to claim a fifth straight NL East title. Much of that roster will be back, although they are facing the potential departure of their All-Star shortstop.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Austin Riley, 3B: $212MM through 2032 (deal also includes 2033 club option)
- Matt Olson, 1B: $153MM through 2029 (deal also includes 2030 club option)
- Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $78MM through 2026 (including buyout of 2027 club option; deal also contains 2028 club option)
- Spencer Strider, RHP: $75MM through 2028 (including buyout of 2029 club option)
- Michael Harris II, CF: $72MM through 2030 (including buyout of 2031 club option; deal also contains 2032 club option)
- Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $48MM through 2025
- Marcell Ozuna, DH: $37MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
- Ozzie Albies, 2B: $25MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option; deal also contains 2027 club option)
- Charlie Morton: RHP: $20MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
- Eddie Rosario, LF: $9MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
- Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
- Kirby Yates, RHP: $7.25MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
- Collin McHugh, RHP: $6MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
- Manny Piña, C: $4.5MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
- Orlando Arcia, 2B: $1.4MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
- Nick Anderson, RHP: $875K through 2023 (arbitration-eligible through 2025)
Other financial commitments: Owe Rangers $10MM in 2023 as part of Jake Odorizzi trade
Total 2023 commitments: $164.675MM
Total future commitments: $767.025MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)
- Max Fried (4.148): $12.2MM
- A.J. Minter (4.154): $5MM
- Mike Soroka (4.122): $2.8MM
- Tyler Matzek (4.019): $1.8MM
- Dennis Santana (3.095): $1.1MM
Total arbitration projection: $22.9MM
Non-tender candidate: Matzek
Free Agents
- Dansby Swanson, Kenley Jansen, Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, Darren O’Day, Ehire Adrianza, Travis Demeritte, Alex Dickerson, Jesús Cruz, Jay Jackson
The Braves stormed back from a deficit that had been as high as 10 1/2 games to claim another division title. One could argue their 2022 team was the best they’ve had in this past half-decade of immense success, but they couldn’t repeat as World Series champions. Now they head into a second straight offseason with the potential departure of one of the winter’s top free agents.
After allowing Freddie Freeman to walk to the Dodgers last offseason, Atlanta has to decide how to proceed with Dansby Swanson. Like Freeman, Swanson has played his entire big league career in Atlanta (although he was originally drafted by the Diamondbacks). He’s an incredibly durable player who has reliably been in the Braves lineup almost every day for six-plus years. After some early-career offensive struggles, he’s turned a corner at the dish to pair with consistently strong shortstop defense.
Swanson has been an average or better hitter three years running. He’s coming off a .277/.329/.447 showing and reached the 25 home run mark for the second straight season. Swanson strikes out a bit more than average and doesn’t draw a ton of walks, but it’s rare to find plus defensive middle infielders with above-average power. The former #1 overall pick earned his first All-Star nod this past season and fits right alongside Javier Báez and Trevor Story — each of whom secured $140MM guarantees with opt-out clauses last winter — as free agent shortstops heading into their age-29 seasons. Swanson’s not elite, but he’s very good, and there’s no question the Braves would prefer to keep him around.
A Georgia native, Swanson has spoken in the past about his desire to return. While there’s clearly mutual interest, financials will needless to say play a big part in deciding whether he’s back in their lineup on Opening Day. Swanson hasn’t given any public indication he’s willing to take a massive discount to stick around, and he reportedly declined an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season. Given how easily Báez and Story each topped that figure, it stands to reason Atlanta will have to raise their proposal significantly at this point — although, to be clear, a $100MM offer midway through what proved a career-best season to date may not have been all that unreasonable when the team first made it.
If Swanson does end up elsewhere, the Braves would recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in next year’s draft, since he rejected a qualifying offer. That’d soften the blow a bit, but it’d leave the win-now club with a major question at shortstop. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote earlier this week the Braves are unlikely to sign any of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts — each of whom is expected to command a loftier deal than Swanson. There’s a massive drop-off from Swanson to the fifth-best free agent shortstop, Elvis Andrus.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, the lack of mid-tier free agent shortstops this winter could lead president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff to turn to the trade market if they don’t succeed in re-upping Swanson. The Guardians’ Amed Rosario, Yankees’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Reds’ Kyle Farmer are among a handful of speculative possibilities who could provide adequate production as a stopgap, but each would be a marked downgrade from the defending Gold Glove winner.
There’s a chance Atlanta decides against diving into the free agent or trade markets. Orlando Arcia isn’t a great fit as an everyday player on a contender, but he’s coming off a reasonable 2022 showing that saw him help fill-in at second base when Ozzie Albies was injured. More interesting is the possibility of allowing top prospect Vaughn Grissom to take the reins.
Grissom, 22 in January, put himself firmly on the radar with a massive showing in High-A to start the season. He was bumped to Double-A and appeared in only 22 games there before the Braves surprisingly jumped him straight to the big leagues as part of a revolving door at second base with Albies out. He got out to a blistering start before his production tailed off, but a .291/.353/.440 line through his first 41 MLB games is impressive enough to at least put him in the conversation for an everyday job out of the gate.
Certainly, turning things over to Grissom would be a risky play. He has zero Triple-A experience, and he showed a very aggressive offensive approach in his early big league look which he’ll probably have to dial back. A shortstop for much of his minor league tenure, he played almost exclusively second base in the majors and didn’t rate well there in his brief debut. Prospect outlets have expressed some concern about whether he’s athletic enough to play an effective shortstop, and it’s possible the Braves are wary of handing him such a key responsibility. They’re not completely averse to the idea, though, as David O’Brien of the Athletic writes that Grissom has been working one-on-one with renowned infield coach Ron Washington to try to hone his shortstop skills.
The Anthopoulos front office hasn’t been afraid to trust its top young talents, even in the absence of much upper minors experience. Re-signing Swanson would certainly raise the team’s floor, but it’d also require adding another massive contract to an increasingly cluttered payroll ledger. Roster Resource projects the team’s Opening Day payroll in the $196MM range, and only Tyler Matzek (who has a modest $1.8MM arbitration projection) stands out as a potential non-tender candidate. Before considering a new Swanson deal or any external upgrades, the Braves are projected for a payroll almost $20MM above this past season’s approximate $178MM Opening Day mark, itself the highest in team history.
The Liberty Media ownership group is clearly comfortable with a franchise-record payroll, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of playoff revenue they’ve banked over the past five seasons. CEO Greg Maffei reiterated recently the team is willing to open next year in the top five spenders (via Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). That doesn’t inherently mean they’re pushing spending dramatically above where things already stand, however.
In the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Braves already rank fifth in projected 2023 payroll. Their luxury tax number is projected by both Cot’s and Roster Resource between $222MM and $228MM, with Cot’s pegging that third-highest in the majors. Bringing back Swanson would send the franchise soaring past next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. The Braves already are one of the sport’s top spenders, regardless of whether they make any more notable investments.
While that kind of stacked payroll ledger can sometimes reflect a number of undesirable contracts a team wishes it could shed, that’s not the case for the Braves. Their investments, by and large, are ones with which the front office is unquestionably happy. Atlanta has had more success than any other team in extending its long-term core.
Much of the offseason attention for the Braves being focused on shortstop is a testament to the strength of the roster that’s otherwise in place. It’s arguably the most complete in the majors, with the heavy lifting already done in most areas. Atlanta has one of the top catching groups, with Travis d’Arnaud under contract for just $8MM. He’s likely to split time with William Contreras, who broke out with a monster .278/.354/.506 showing over 97 games this year. Contreras could also see some action at designated hitter and in left field, particularly if the Braves carry three backstops on the active roster. Veteran Manny Piña will make $4.5MM in the second season of a two-year free agent deal; he lost almost all of this past season to left wrist surgery, and the Braves could look to offload some or all of his salary to a team with less catching depth.
The infield aside from shortstop is set. Matt Olson and Austin Riley will probably be the corner tandem for the entire decade. Albies will be the second baseman, hopefully with better injury luck than he experienced this past season. Arcia can bounce around as a depth piece off the bench.
Two outfield spots are also locked down. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be the right fielder, with Rosenthal quashing any nonsensical trade speculation involving one of the sport’s best young talents. Michael Harris II is in center field, fresh off a Rookie of the Year-winning season. Like Olson, Riley, and Albies, Acuña and Harris have already signed long-term extensions that’ll keep them around for the foreseeable future.
The only other question mark on the position player side is in left field. Adam Duvall is a free agent and didn’t play well anyhow. Eddie Rosario had a rough 2022 campaign even after undergoing surgery to correct the vision in his right eye. Marcell Ozuna returned to the roster after last year’s domestic violence arrest and suspension. He didn’t play well on either side of the ball and was charged with a DUI in August. Atlanta acquired Sam Hilliard from the Rockies to kick off the offseason, but he has huge strikeout issues and a career .294 on-base percentage despite spending his career to date in Colorado.
It’s not a great group, and the Braves could certainly look for upgrades. Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are among the free agent corner outfielders available, while Andrew Benintendi figures to be a bit more expensive than the rest of that group. On the trade market, players like Max Kepler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jesse Winker could be shopped by their current clubs. The Braves could also give Contreras regular run in left field, but he played just one game there this past season.
Atlanta would surely welcome the possibility of parting with Rosario or Ozuna, but neither is going to have much trade appeal. Finding a taker for a fraction of the $8MM due to Rosario next season could be viable, but the Braves may just prefer to hold him and hope for a bounceback. It’s hard to envision another team engineering even a swap of underwater deals to take on Ozuna, who’s due $37MM for the final two years of a contract that proved a rare misstep for the organization. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Braves release him entirely if he gets off to a slow start.
Just as there’s not much to quibble on the position player side, the pitching staff projects as one of the league’s best. Atlanta has a front four of Cy Young finalist Max Fried, Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Few teams can match that kind of 1-4, and there’s a chance the Braves try to work out long-term deals with either Fried or Wright. The former is already projected for a $12.2MM arbitration salary and just two years from the open market, so a Fried extension would be a much heftier investment. Wright is still a year from arbitration and under control for four seasons overall.
There’s a bit of uncertainty in the fifth spot, which Jake Odorizzi failed to effectively seize after being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline. Atlanta felt comfortable enough with its in-house depth to ship away Odorizzi days after he exercised his $12.5MM option, paying down $10MM of the deal and receiving depth arm Kolby Allard from the Rangers in return.
It was a vote of confidence some younger arms in the system can outperform Odorizzi, as Atlanta only saved $2.5MM. Anthopoulos pointed to Bryce Elder, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller as pitchers who could battle for the final spot. Anderson and Soroka each looked like core pieces of the future not too long ago. The former had a rough 2022 season, while the latter has had a nightmarish stretch of Achilles injuries that have cost him two-plus years. That duo has shown plenty of talent, however, and they pair with Elder — a well-regarded prospect who made his first 10 MLB appearances this past season — as depth options with some upside. Righty Freddy Tarnok could eventually get a look as well after a strong showing in the upper minors that briefly earned him his big league debut.
The Braves could scour the market for a depth starter, but they don’t have to force any additions considering the volume of in-house arms. Elder, Muller and Tarnok could trickle into a bullpen that also looks like one of the game’s best units. A.J. Minter broke out as an elite arm from the left side, backed up by the more quietly excellent Dylan Lee. The Braves agreed to take on the last three years of Raisel Iglesias’ contract in a deadline swap with the Angels, giving them a ready-made closing replacement if Kenley Jansen walks in free agency. Collin McHugh gives them a high-leverage setup type from the right side, and the Braves have rolled the dice on former stars Kirby Yates and Nick Anderson, each of whom are trying to regain their footing after lengthy injury rehabs. Atlanta could be a fit for a stable middle innings type — particularly one who throws right-handed — but that’s more of a luxury buy than a pressing concern.
That’s true of much of the roster, one which looks poised to remain among the sport’s best for a number of seasons. So much of the offseason attention will be focused on the shortstop uncertainty, but the Braves will enter the year as one of the likeliest teams to compete for a World Series if Swanson returns or not. Anthopoulos and his group won’t be complacent in a division that also features another 100-win team and the defending NL pennant winners, but the Braves are in excellent shape for this offseason and many beyond.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 11-19-22 at 11:00 am CST. Click here to view the transcript.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/22
The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tomorrow. While tomorrow will surely see a frenzy of deals and non-tenders, some agreements have already started to trickle out today.
For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.
One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…
- The Cardinals announced that they have a one-year deal in place with right-hander Chris Stratton. The club didn’t disclose the terms but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that it’s for $2.8MM. Stratton spent the past few years with the Pirates but came over to St. Louis at the deadline as part of the Jose Quintana deal. He had much better results after the jersey switch, as his ERA was 5.09 before but 2.78 after.
Earlier Deals
- The Giants and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year deal worth about $1.2MM, per @drew_smitty. (The New York Post’s Jon Heyman, more specifically, pegs the exact number as $1.15MM.) The southpaw has appeared in each of the past eight seasons, largely providing effective work but also frequently hitting the injured list. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in May and got selected in August. He made 17 appearances down the stretch and posted a miniscule 1.04 ERA, impressive enough to convince the Giants to keep him around.
- The Reds and right-hander Buck Farmer have agreed on a salary of $1.75MM, per Heyman. Having signed a minor league deal in the offseason, Farmer made the Opening Day roster but was DFA’d in May and re-signed. He got back onto the roster in July and finished strong. At the end of the year, he had 47 innings with a 3.83 ERA.
Mets Re-Sign Edwin Diaz
November 17: Jon Heyman of The New York Post provides a full breakdown. Diaz will make $17.25MM in 2023 and 2024 with $5.5MM deferred with no interest. He will get a bump to $17.5MM in 2025 with $5.5MM deferred. Then he’ll get $18.5MM in 2026 and 2027 with $5MM deferred. The club option is for $20.4MM and has a $1MM buyout.
November 9: The Mets have officially announced the deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has more details on the deferred money, noting that it will be $5.5MM per year for the first three seasons and then $5MM per year for the last two. This means his CBT number will be $18.6MM (Twitter links).
November 6: The Mets have kicked off the off-season in spectacular fashion, inking superstar closer Edwin Diaz to a record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal. The deal comes with a $12MM signing bonus, full no-trade clause and has a team option for a sixth year which could take the total value of the deal to $122MM. Diaz will also have the ability to opt out of the contract after the third season, when he’ll be approaching his age-32 season. $26.5MM of Diaz’s salary is deferred. Diaz is represented by the Wasserman Agency.
The contract takes one of the top free agents off the board before free agency opens on Thursday afternoon, and it also sets a new standard as the biggest contract even given to a relief pitcher in terms of both total value and average annual value. Aroldis Chapman‘s five-year, $86MM contract was the previous benchmark for total value, while Liam Hendriks‘ ongoing three-year deal with the White Sox had given him the previous AAV high of $18MM.
Diaz, 28, was lights out for the Mets in 2022, tossing 62 innings of 1.30 ERA ball. He struck out more than half of the batters he faced, while walking just 7.7% of batters. He gave up just three home runs all year, and converted 32 of his 35 save opportunities. His fastball/slider combo has always been a nightmare for opposition batters, but he leaned far more heavily on his slider in 2022, going to it 58.1% of the time against his usual usage in the mid-30s, and the results were staggering. He led the majors in reliever ERA, strikeout rate and reliever fWAR. The strikeout rate was so dominant it tied Craig Kimbrel‘s 2012 effort for the third best strikeout rate of qualified relievers in MLB history. Only Aroldis Chapman‘s 52.5% mark in 2014 is better, but that came against an 11.9% walk rate, well above Diaz’s rate this season.
Though Diaz established himself as the best reliever in baseball this season, the deal does present a fair degree of risk particularly given Diaz’s career as a whole has been something of a roller-coaster. After being drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Mariners, Diaz emerged as powerhouse arm out of Seattle’s bullpen. He averaged a 2.64 ERA over three seasons in Seattle, highlighted by a phenomenal 2018 season that saw him notch 57 saves, while posting a 1.96 ERA and finishing eighth in AL Cy Young voting. That prompted the Mets to acquire him that off-season, sending over their own top prospect Jarred Kelenic and taking on the bulk of Robinson Cano‘s hefty contract to get him. That off-season blockbuster also featured Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista.
The deal looked a shocker initially, as Diaz pitched to a 5.59 ERA in his first season in Queens. He maintained his strong strikeout rates, but struggled mightily with the long ball, giving up an average of 2.3 home runs every nine innings. He could have been an outside non-tender candidate that winter, but the Mets stuck with him, and their decision paid off immediately. Diaz bounced back in the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, curing his long ball problems and posting the best strikeout rate at that point of his career. He experienced a slight dip in 2021, posting a 3.45 ERA, although advanced indicators such as FIP suggested his performance was largely in line with his previous season (2.48 in ’21 against 2.18 in ’20).
Diaz has become a legitimate superstar of the sport in Queens. His performance speaks for itself, but his entrance to trumpets at Citi Field captivated all of sports and sparked a number of other theatrical entrances that look to mimic the atmosphere that Diaz’s entrance creates. While no reliever is a sure thing, Diaz is the best in the game at what he does, and Mets owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness make money a non-issue when it comes to signing, or in this case re-signing, the game’s top talent.
It’s the first move in what could be a busy off-season for the Mets. Both their rotation and bullpen will significant addressing. Diaz was set to join Tommy Hunter, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor May, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams as relievers headed for free agency, while Mychal Givens has a mutual option for next year, meaning they effectively have to rebuild their bullpen entirely. Diaz is a major piece of that, but the Mets will still be heavily active in the relief market this winter. On the rotation side of things, Chris Bassitt has already declined his mutual option and will be a free agent, while Jacob deGrom is expected to confirm he’ll opt into free agency in the coming days. Taijuan Walker has a $7.5MM player option with a $3MM buyout, while Carlos Carrasco has a $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout, so the team could be seeking a number of starters as well. That’s not even getting into the offensive side of the ball, where the Mets will lose outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin.
It shapes up as another busy off-season, and one which could see the Mets payroll soar to even greater heights. Cohen has never seemed too concerned with the payroll, but RosterResource has the Mets payroll at $251MM for 2023 currently, although that figure doesn’t assume deGrom will opt out. Even so, the team spent $282MM in 2022 on player payroll, and there’s definitely a path to them spending that or more in 2023 if they’re serious about competing in the tough NL East.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report that Diaz and the Mets were close to a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the deal was done and included an option, opt-out and no-trade clause. Tim Healey of Newsday had financial details of the option year and the time of the opt-out. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had details of the signing bonus, while SNY’s Andy Martino reported about the deferred money.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images