Astros Re-Sign Michael Brantley
December 21: The Astros have officially announced the deal. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle provides a breakdown of the incentives. Brantley will get $500K for reaching 400 and 425 plate appearances, then an extra $750K at 450, 475, 500 and 525 appearances.
December 18: The Astros have agreed to a one-year, $12MM deal with outfielder Michael Brantley, pending a physical. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported the contract value, with The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links) adding that the deal also contains $4MM in additional incentive bonuses. FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link) initially reported that the two sides were in talks about a new deal. Brantley is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Brantley is entering his age-36 season, and 2023 will be his fifth year in a Houston uniform. He previously signed a pair of two-year, $32MM pacts with the team in his two past trips to free agency, and by coincidence, it was four years ago today that Brantley first agreed to join the Astros.
In terms of pure numbers, Brantley’s tenure in Houston has been very successful, with a 128 wRC+ and a .306/.368/.464 slash line and 40 homers over 1609 plate appearances. Unfortunately for Brantley, his role in the Astros’ 2022 championship season ended on June 26, due to a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery. Brantley played in only 64 games.
This isn’t the first time Brantley has dealt with a shoulder surgery, as he previously went under the knife to fix a small labrum tear in 2015 and subsequently played in only 11 games for Cleveland in the 2016 season. Beyond the shoulder problems, Brantley has also faced ankle and back problems throughout his career, but his first three seasons with the Astros were reasonably healthy. Quad, knee, and hamstring issues sent Brantley to the injured list three times in 2020-21, but all three IL stints combined for roughly a month of missed time.
The presence of Yordan Alvarez has probably kept the Astros from using Brantley as a DH as often as they would probably like, though on paper, manager Dusty Baker can alternate the two players between left field and DH in order to hopefully keep everyone fresh. With Brantley back in the mix, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick will now be splitting time in center field.
The Astros were known to be looking for outfield help, preferably a left-handed bat (like Brantley) to balance out a lineup of mostly right-handed hitters. Michael Conforto and the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar were other free agents reportedly on Houston’s radar, and the Astros also had some talks with the Diamondbacks about their surplus of lefty-hitting outfielders, particularly Daulton Varsho. Among players who have already signed with other teams, Andrew Benintendi and Cody Bellinger also received some consideration from the World Series champions.
Among all these options, the Astros opted for a familiar face in Brantley, counting on a comeback year. The signing suggests that Houston (who knows Brantley’s medical profile better than anyone) is feeling good about the outfielder’s chances of both recovering well from shoulder rehab, and returning to his prior form at the plate. The $4MM in performance incentives gives Brantley an additional chance to cash in should he indeed stay healthy and keep up his usual levels of productivity.
While the injuries are naturally the biggest question mark hanging over Brantley, there is also the matter of what can be expected of any hitter as he gets deeper into his 30’s. Brantley’s homer totals and slugging percentage have both dropped rather sharply over the last two seasons, though he seemed to be adjusting by having a more keen eye at the plate. Albeit in the small sample size of 277 PA, Brantley’s 11.2% walk rate in 2022 was the highest of his 14-year Major League career. Brantley has also remained one of baseball’s toughest hitters to strike out, and his 45.1% hard-hit ball total last season was also his highest since Statcast began tracking the category in 2015.
Between Brantley and Jose Abreu, the Astros have bolstered their lineup with a pair of “professional hitter” types who brings plenty of experience to the table. Between Brantley’s $12MM deal and Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract, Houston’s estimated payroll now sits at approximately $194MM, with a luxury tax figure of just over $209MM. That still leaves the Astros well under the $233MM luxury tax threshold, and some of that space could be used on a catcher, since Houston has explored the market for backstops. Some less-expensive options like Tucker Barnhart remain in free agency, or the Astros could look into trades with catcher-heavy teams like the Blue Jays.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Orioles Designate Lewin Díaz For Assignment
The Orioles have announced their deal with reliever Mychal Givens, making it official. In a corresponding move, first baseman Lewin Díaz has been designated for assignment.
Díaz, 26, was originally signed by the Twins and was highly-touted as a prospect due to his power bat and strong first base defense. Baseball America ranked him one of the top 30 Minnesota farmhands in four straight seasons from 2015 to 2018. The Twins flipped him to the Marlins in a 2019 trade that sent Sergio Romo and Chris Vallimont the other way.
Díaz has spent the past few seasons in the Marlins’ system, hitting well in the upper levels of the minors but struggling in the majors. Over the past three MLB seasons, he’s made 343 plate appearances but has a paltry .181/.227/.340 batting line to show for it. In Triple-A over the past two seasons, however, he’s hit 39 home runs in 680 plate appearances and has a much more palatable .250/.325/.504 line. That production was 15% better than league average, as evidenced by his 115 wRC+.
On the defensive side of things, his big league numbers are much more positive. He always was graded well for his glove work as a prospect and that seems to be holding true as he’s reached the majors. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a +16 grade so far, with Ultimate Zone Rating coming in at 3.4 and Outs Above Average at +9.
That work in the field gives Díaz a solid floor as a glove-first option, with his strong offense in the minors giving some hope that he could develop into a two-way contributor. He’s now out of options but is still young and has just over a year of MLB service time. There’s enough intrigue in his profile to attract clubs around the league. The Marlins designated him for assignment in November but he has since landed with the Pirates and Orioles on waiver claims. The O’s will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers.
Orioles Sign Mychal Givens To One-Year Deal
Dec. 21: The Orioles officially announced the deal today.
Dec. 19 6:22pm: Feinsand reports the specifics of the mutual option (on Twitter): Givens receives a $3MM salary in 2023. The option price is valued at $6MM. If Givens declines his end of next year’s option, he’d receive a $1MM buyout. If he triggers the option but the Orioles decline their end, he’d pick up a $2MM buyout.
6:08pm: The deal contains a mutual option for the 2024 campaign, report Dan Connolly and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link).
5:50pm: It will be a one-year deal for Givens with a $5MM guarantee, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
5:40pm: The Orioles and reliever Mychal Givens are in agreement on a contract, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The terms of the deal, which is pending a physical, are not yet known. The club’s 40-man roster is full, meaning a corresponding move will be required once the deal is official. Givens is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Givens, 33 in May, returns to his original organization, as the O’s drafted him back in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors and debuted with them in 2015, establishing himself as a solid MLB reliever in the years to come. In each of the three seasons from 2016 to 2018, he made at least 66 appearances for Baltimore, throwing at least 74 2/3 innings and never posting an ERA higher than 3.99. In 2019, he took a noticeable step back, posting a 4.57 ERA, though it’s worth pointing out that was the season of the “juiced balls” and his 22.8% home run per fly ball rate was almost double his career rate of 12.1%.
In the three seasons since, Givens has made that 2019 showing look more and more like an outlier. He’s bounced to the Rockies, Reds, Cubs and Mets in that time, posting a 3.41 ERA over that three-year period. For his career as a whole, Givens has a 3.40 ERA over 419 appearances, with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate.
The club has some exciting young pitchers in their bullpen, such as Félix Bautista, Dillon Tate and Cionel Pérez, but Givens will give them an experienced option. If the club is in contention down the stretch, he can play a key role for them, but he could also turn into deadline fodder otherwise. That would be nothing new for Givens, as he’s been traded near the deadline in each of the past three years.
Givens reached free agency for the first time after 2021 and signed with the Cubs for 2022. It was a one-year deal with a mutual option, with Givens making $3.5MM in salary and a $1.5MM buyout on the option, amounting to a $5MM guarantee but with $1.25MM available in bonuses as well. He’ll land a matching deal this time around.
The Orioles have given out one-year deals to Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier already this offseason, adding some veteran presence around their young core. The O’s had just $60MM committed to their 2023 payroll thus far, per Roster Resource, and this move pushes them up around $64MM. The club’s ledger for 2024 remains completely blank, aside from the buyout figures attached to Givens’ mutual option.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Opener: Correa, Infield Market, MLBTR Chat
Following an overnight stunner of a transaction, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:
1. What will the fallout of Correa’s new deal be?
Carlos Correa and the Mets stunned the baseball world by coming to terms on a 12-year, $315MM contract last night, and a shakeup of this magnitude is certain to have ripple effects throughout the offseason and beyond. For the Mets, the addition of Correa pushes Eduardo Escobar out of the starting lineup while potentially blocking the advancement of top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, both of whom primarily play third base. This could potentially leave Escobar on the trade block, where he would join James McCann and Carlos Carrasco as players the Mets are listening on. Baty and Vientos, meanwhile, could still have paths to playing time in the majors. Baty can play left field in addition to third, while Vientos already appeared to profile better at first base or the DH slot than the hot corner. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mets deal either player in pursuit of upgrades elsewhere, especially considering their interest in Liam Hendriks. As for the Giants, they’ve now lost out on pursuits of Correa, Aaron Judge, and Carlos Rodon in free agency this offseason, leaving them in a troubling position going forward. Though they’ve added quality complementary pieces such as Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea, their failure to add any of the top free agents leaves San Francisco lacking the star power necessary to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Perhaps the Giants will be able to get creative and use their unexpectedly available financial resources to acquire talent in trades, but failing that, they may have to set their eyes on next offseason’s free agent class, which also seems likely to have a great deal of star power at the top of the market.
2. Where does the infield market stand?
While Correa’s new home was the big news yesterday, the infield market has begun to heat up, with Brandon Drury landing in Anaheim on a two-year deal and Matt Carpenter headed to San Diego, just a few days after Justin Turner signed on in Boston. The Diamondbacks, White Sox, Cubs and Marlins are among the teams who could still be looking to add to their infield, and the free agent market still has some interesting options available. Jean Segura is perhaps the best infielder left on the market, though Evan Longoria, Donovan Solano, and Elvis Andrus are all still available as well. The rumor mill has been quiet regarding this group of players (though Longoria has been connected to Arizona), but with the market for infielders in a similar tier heating up in recent days, it’s possible the markets for these players could advance quickly.
3. MLBTR Chat Today
Whether you missed out on yesterday’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams, or last night’s shocking Correa deal has raised new questions for you, don’t fret. Not only can you read the transcript of that chat here, but MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a live chat of his own today at 3:00 PM CT, where he will field questions from readers. You can submit a question in advance here, and the same link will take you to the chat once it’s live if you want to participate in real time.
Giants Reportedly Postpone Carlos Correa’s Introduction Due To Medical Concern
The Giants and Carlos Correa agreed to terms last week on a 13-year, $350MM framework for a deal. That structure was pending a physical and Correa had yet to officially sign the contract. The club was going to introduce him today but the scheduled news conference was postponed due to a medical concern, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. Earlier today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the postponement was related to the fact that the club was “awaiting test results.” At this point, it isn’t known what exactly is causing the holdup, with Blum’s report simply stating that “a medical issue was flagged.”
Beyond that information, anything else is speculation at this point. It isn’t publicly known what the issue is or how serious it is. It’s also not known if the Giants simply want to conduct further tests or have firm evidence of something that will lead to the deal being called off or restructured. However, the fact that they are at least delaying the official stamp is a situation that will be worth monitoring.
Over the past eight seasons, Correa has been one of the best shortstops in baseball but one knock against him has been durability. He has gone to the injured list with various issues in his career, including a torn ligament in his thumb, lower back soreness and a fractured rib. However, he largely moved past his “injury-prone” label in recent years. He played 58 games in the shortened 60-game season in 2020, followed by 148 contests in 2021. This most recent season, he went on the IL for a finger contusion and went to the COVID-IL once but still got into 136 games on the year, staying healthy for the entirety of the second half of the season. Again, it’s worth repeating that we don’t know what the current issue is or the severity of it, but Slusser reports that is not a back problem.
A’s Sign Jake Fishman, Deolis Guerra To Minor League Deals
The A’s announced a number of non-roster invitations to Spring Training this afternoon. Among those invited to camp were relievers Jake Fishman and Deolis Guerra, indicating both recently joined the organization on minor league deals. Oakland also signed first baseman Kevin Cron.
Fishman reached the big leagues for the first time with the Marlins in 2022. The southpaw had a few separate stints with Miami and made seven appearances altogether. He tallied 11 innings, allowing five runs while striking out six and issuing three walks. The sinkerballer averaged only 87.5 MPH on his fastball and under 76 MPH on his slider, but he had a nice year in Triple-A.
Through 56 appearances with Miami’s top affiliate, Fishman posted a 2.25 ERA. He induced grounders at an excellent 54.2% clip and struck out a serviceable 23.1% of opponents. The Union College product walked 8.5% of batters faced in the minors, and he held same-handed hitters to an awful .191/.270/.270 line across 142 plate appearances in Triple-A. Despite that strong showing, he was outrighted off Miami’s 40-man roster at the end of the end of the season and qualified for free agency. Also a former member of the Blue Jays organization, Fishman will compete for a situational role similar to the one already held by Sam Moll in Oakland.
Guerra is a familiar face for Oakland fans. The 33-year-old was second on the team in relief innings in 2021, soaking up 65 2/3 frames across 53 outings. He had a solid if unremarkable year, posting a 4.11 ERA while putting up roughly average strikeout and walk rates (23% and 7.4%, respectively). A veteran journeyman who’d previously suited up for the Pirates, Angels, Brewers and Phillies at the MLB level, Guerra looked to have carved out a multi-year role in the Oakland bullpen.
That was thrown off track before the 2022 season even began, however. Guerra battled some elbow pain in Spring Training, and he underwent Tommy John surgery a week into the regular season. He spent the whole year on the injured list and was non-tendered at the end of the season. While the A’s weren’t prepared to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter after a lost season, they quickly brought him back with a chance to earn a spot yet again. Given the mid-April timing of his surgery, it’s unlikely Guerra will be ready to take the mound in exhibition play. He’ll presumably start the year on the minor league injured list and head to Triple-A Las Vegas after he completes his rehab and builds back to game shape.
Cron, 30 in February, played in 47 games with the Diamondbacks from 2019-20. The right-handed hitter didn’t perform well in that very limited look, but he has mashed at a .319/.405/.651 clip in just over 800 career Triple-A plate appearances (albeit in an extremely favorable environment in Reno). Those monster numbers earned Cron looks in both Japan and South Korea over the past two years, though he didn’t fare especially well at either stop. He hit .231/.270/.431 with NPB’s Hiroshima Carp in 2021 and posted a .222/.255/.420 mark through 259 trips to the plate with the KBO’s SSG Landers this year.
Also included in the list of non-roster invitees are outfielder Cody Thomas and infielder Ernie Clement. Both had been designated for assignment in recent days but apparently went unclaimed on waivers and remained in the organization on outright assignments. Thomas debuted with 10 MLB games this past season, while Clement hit .184/.243/.209 in 70 combined contests between the Guardians and A’s in 2022.
Oakland further announced that infielder Vimael Machín declined an outright assignment after going unclaimed on waivers. He’ll head to minor league free agency, as is his right as a player who has been outrighted multiple times in his career. The lefty-hitting infielder posted a .220/.300/.287 line with one homer through 253 plate appearances this past season. He hasn’t done much at the plate in parts of three big league campaigns. Owner of a far more impressive .307/.400/.468 line through parts of four Triple-A seasons, Machín figures to find a minor league opportunity elsewhere.
Mets Showing Trade Interest In Liam Hendriks
The Mets are among the clubs that have contacted the White Sox regarding Liam Hendriks, reports Michael Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link). Reports emerged a couple weeks ago that Chicago had been discussing their star closer with other teams, though the identity of those clubs wasn’t clear.
Certainly, the Mets aren’t the only team that’d be interested in prying Hendriks from Chicago. The 33-year-old is one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Hendriks broke out with the A’s in 2019, tossing 85 frames with a 1.80 ERA to secure his first All-Star selection. He’d surely have earned another had there been a Midsummer Classic in 2020, as he finished ninth in AL Cy Young balloting during the abbreviated season thanks to a 1.78 mark through 25 1/3 frames.
After that season, the right-hander made the move to Chicago. Hendriks inked a $54MM guarantee with the White Sox, with Chicago gambling he’d maintain his late-career breakout form. He’s done just that, posting a 2.66 ERA over 127 frames with the Sox. After posting a 2.54 ERA in year one, he followed up with a 2.81 mark through 57 2/3 innings this past season. Hendriks earned All-Star selections in both seasons and struck out an excellent 36.2% of batters faced in 2022. He missed a few weeks in the middle of the year with a forearm strain — an alarming-sounding diagnosis for a pitcher — but he returned seemingly no worse for wear, striking out 35.4% of opponents while sitting north of 97 MPH on his heater in the second half.
Any contender looking for bullpen help could check in with Chicago general manager Rick Hahn. Hendriks would be an impact addition to the late innings for any club, and the Mets are no exception. New York has one of the handful of relievers who might be better than Hendriks to pitch the ninth inning after re-signing Edwin Díaz to a five-year free agent contract. They agreed to terms with Adam Ottavino on a two-year deal this afternoon, and they’ve also brought in David Robertson from outside the organization. The Mets don’t necessarily need more bullpen help, but they’ve shown no qualms about going after high-end talent no matter the cost.
That’s reflected in their astronomical spending, the likes of which MLB has never seen before. New York has a 2023 player payroll projected by Roster Resource around $351MM. Their luxury tax number sits around $363MM, a staggering $130MM higher than next year’s base tax threshold. That lines them up for a projected tax bill of $92.4MM, which would put their total player spending around $443.4MM.
Additional pickups would obviously add to that figure. Hendriks is guaranteed $14MM in 2023, and his contract contains a $15MM club option for the ’24 season. That comes with a matching $15MM buyout, which would be distributed in $1.5MM installments through 2033. That’d be a small benefit, but the only incentive for the White Sox not to exercise the option would be if Hendriks suffers an injury that takes him out of action for most or all of the 2024 campaign or has such a dramatic drop in performance his spot on the roster would be in jeopardy.
If Hendriks is traded, that option vests. Hendriks would then be guaranteed $29MM over the next two seasons. Matt Gelb of the Athletic has previously reported that under the new CBA, for luxury tax purposes, traded players on multi-year contracts see the average annual value of their deal recalculated at the time of the trade. In Hendriks’ case, he’d be pegged at $29MM over two years — a $14.5MM AAV for an acquiring team. If not traded, his deal counts for $18MM against the White Sox’s tax ledger in 2023, as it was technically a three-year, $54MM guarantee at signing.
For the Mets, taking on a $14.5MM AAV would come with an additional $13.05MM in taxes, as they’re taxed at a 90% clip on all future spending. Topping $27MM in actual money annually for a reliever is something virtually no other team would do, but New York seemingly can’t be counted out of any move at this point.
Of course, there’s no indication the Mets and White Sox have made much or any progress. To this point, the exercise is mostly theoretical. New York would face plenty of competition if the Sox commit to moving Hendriks, who’s better than any available free agent reliever. Chicago could certainly elect to hang onto him entirely, since they’re working to rebound from an 81-81 showing to compete in the AL Central. The White Sox agreed to terms with Andrew Benintendi on a five-year, $75MM deal last week. If his salaries are evenly distributed, that’d push their projected payroll to $193MM, which would be right in line with this past season’s franchise-record mark.
Brian O’Grady Signs With KBO’s Hanwha Eagles
Brian O’Grady has signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic. It’s a deal for up to $900K, with $700K in salary and $200K in incentives, according to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (Twitter link).
O’Grady got brief looks in the big leagues each season from 2019-21. A former Reds draftee, he played in the Cincinnati system for a half-decade and earned an MLB debut with the Reds in ’19. O’Grady appeared in 28 contests for Cincinnati before being dealt to the Rays the following offseason. The lefty-hitting corner outfielder suited up just twice with Tampa Bay in the shortened 2020 campaign and was outrighted off the roster over the 2020-21 winter. He signed an MLB contract with the Padres and suited up a personal-high 32 times for the Friars the next season.
Between the three clubs, O’Grady managed just a .184/.283/.388 line in 114 MLB plate appearances. He’d hit at an excellent .284/.362/.551 clip through parts of three Triple-A campaigns, though, and that strong upper minors work caught the attention of evaluators in Japan. The Rutgers product inked a deal with the Seibu Lions in Nippon Professional Baseball last offseason. He tallied 465 trips to the plate but didn’t perform as the club had hoped offensively, putting up a .213/.312/.384 line with 15 home runs. O’Grady walked at a quality 11.6% clip but struck out in 27.7% of plate appearances for the Lions.
The Eagles will take a shot on a rebound season, betting on O’Grady’s power and plate discipline. His strong minor league track record gives reason for optimism as he heads to South Korea for the first time. The Philadelphia native turns 31 in May and could eventually look for a return to the affiliated ranks if he performs well in the KBO. For now, he’ll look to help an Eagles team that went just 46-96 this year to bounce back from a last-place finish.
The Pirates’ Potential Rotation Trade Chip
Virtually all the attention on the Pirates’ trade possibilities this offseason has centered on All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Extension talks hit a snag, and Reynolds requested a trade. Pittsburgh has maintained they won’t move off their lofty asking price on the 27-year-old, who’s controllable for three more seasons. They seem open to offers but have at least signaled they won’t make a deal unless blown away by the package of young talent they’d receive.
Whether Reynolds gets dealt is one of the bigger remaining storylines of the offseason, but he’s certainly not the only player on the Pittsburgh roster who could attract attention. The Bucs have stockpiled a number of veterans on one-year commitments — Ji-Man Choi, Vince Velasquez and Austin Hedges among them — who could be midseason trade candidates. Star closer David Bednar would have a ton of appeal in the unlikely event the Pirates made him available. One player who has seemingly flown under the radar in rumors is JT Brubaker, but he seems the most plausible trade candidate in Pittsburgh’s rotation.
At first glance, it looks obvious why Brubaker hasn’t been the subject of much public trade speculation. He has pitched in three big league seasons and has a 4.99 ERA through 315 2/3 innings. The righty hasn’t posted an ERA better than this past season’s 4.69 mark in any of those years. Despite pitching his home games in a very favorable park, Brubaker hasn’t managed to keep runs off the board consistently. He’s not going to be a primary target for a win-now club that feels they’re a starter away from contention.
That said, teams will obviously look beyond a pitcher’s ERA in evaluating that player, and Brubaker has shown more promise than one might surmise with a cursory glance at his Baseball Reference page. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA have viewed the Akron product more favorably than his ERA would suggest in all three of his big league campaigns. That’s a reflection of strikeout and walk numbers that’d look right in line with what one would expect from their fourth starter.
Brubaker has struck out 23-24% of opponents in all three seasons, while he’s kept his walk percentage in the 7-8% range. Over 144 innings in 2022, the former sixth-round draftee put up a 22.8% strikeout rate that was narrowly better than the 21.6% league average for starters. He walked 8.4% of batters faced, slightly higher than the 7.5% league mark. On a pitch-for-pitch basis, Brubaker also fared reasonably. He generated swinging strikes on 11.8% of his offerings, right in line with the rate from his prior two seasons. That’s a tick better than the 10.7% league figure.
It’s a fairly similar story from a batted ball perspective. Brubaker’s 44% grounder rate is fine, marginally better than par. Even his pitches themselves seem almost exactly average. His sinker checked in at 93.1 MPH this past season, which is middle-of-the-pack. Brubaker’s mid-80s slider is the highlight of his arsenal, a quality swing-and-miss pitch he uses with frequency against same-handed hitters. That’s his go-to offering once he gets ahead in the count against righties, and it has been effective at finishing off opponents when he needs a strikeout.
While Brubaker’s strikeout/walk profile is solid, his run prevention has yet to match up. That’s not entirely poor luck, as he’s given up a decent amount of hard contact. Left-handed hitters have given him real trouble, which isn’t especially surprising for a sinker-slider specialist who doesn’t regularly feature a changeup in his arsenal. Brubaker doesn’t have a great weapon to stay off barrels against lefty hitters, and they hit him hard in 2022. Over 298 plate appearances, opposing southpaws put a .269/.339/.481 line. While Brubaker induced grounders on over half his batted balls against right-handed opponents, lefties got the ball in the air roughly 65% of the time. Despite facing 50 more right-handed hitters on the season, he allowed three more homers to left-handed batters.
That’s a legitimate concern, and that contact profile partially explains the gap between his 4.99 career ERA and the more favorable marks from FIP (4.43) and SIERA (4.04). Without finding a better weapon against lefties, he’ll probably underperform those estimators to some extent. That said, he’s likely due for some positive regression, even if it’s not all the way to the 4.04 mark SIERA would suggest. Brubaker finished in the bottom 20 starters in left-on-base rate this year, and more favorable sequencing of the baserunners he allows should naturally improve his ERA. If another team feels confident in their ability to tinker with his repertoire or improve his changeup to better handle southpaws, they could eye him as an interesting change-of-scenery play.
To be clear, Brubaker isn’t going to come anywhere close to attracting the attention Reynolds or Bednar would on the trade market. Yet there’s some appeal for clubs in securing average to slightly below-average innings at little financial cost. The market for mid-tier starting pitchers has been extremely strong. Players like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon secured four-year deals with underlying marks not much better than Brubaker’s. Brubaker wouldn’t have commanded that kind of outlay as a free agent given his platoon/hard contact issues. Yet one could argue he’s better than Kyle Gibson, who landed a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles for his age-35 season, or Jordan Lyles, who has agreed to terms on a two-year, $17MM pact with the Royals.
Brubaker turned 29 in November, and he’s controllable for three more seasons. Entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an even $2MM salary. He’s affordable enough for any team, and while that includes the Pirates, they don’t seem likely to take an arbitration-eligible starter off the table as they continue their rebuild. Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington and his staff don’t need to make a deal, but Brubaker’s not the type of player they’d steadfastly refuse to entertain relinquishing.
The free agent rotation market has gained plenty of steam the past few weeks. There hasn’t been any movement on the trade front for starting pitching, although that figures to pick up with the number of free agent hurlers dwindling. Brubaker wouldn’t be as exciting an addition as landing Pablo López or Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, but he should be on teams’ radars as a fallback target later in the winter.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Pirates Designate Diego Castillo For Assignment
The Pirates have designated infielder Diego Castillo for assignment, per their transactions tracker at MLB.com. The move opens a roster spot for catcher Austin Hedges, whose signing became official today.
Castillo, 25, was one of two players traded from the Yankees to the Pirates as part of the July 2021 trade that sent Clay Holmes to the Bronx. The other, Hoy Park, was designated for assignment in November, going to the Red Sox and then Braves in subsequent trades. That means today’s transaction could potentially wipe the Holmes return from Pittsburgh’s roster just a year and a half later, while Holmes has gone on to establish himself a key part of the Yankee bullpen.
Castillo was a contact-over-power guy for the beginnings of his professional career, striking out around 10% of the time in the lower levels of the minors but rarely putting the ball over the fence. 2021 seemed to be a breakout for him, as he hit 19 home runs between the systems of the Yankees and Pirates, finishing the year with a combined slash line of .278/.355/.487 and a wRC+ of 128.
He was selected to Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster in November of last year but couldn’t carry his positive developments forward. He got into 96 games at the big league level in 2022 and hit 11 home runs, but he also struck out in 26.5% of his plate appearances while walking just 4.9% of the time. He finished the season with a batting line of .206/.251/.382, production that was 27% below average, as evidenced by his 73 wRC+. He also got into 35 Triple-A games but the results were only marginally better. It seems the Bucs saw enough to feel it was time to move on.
They will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. It’s possible that Castillo could garner some interest from other clubs, despite his disappointing season. He’s still young and has a couple of option years remaining. He’s also played all four infield positions and a bit of right field, meaning he could provide clubs with a versatile depth piece even if his bat doesn’t turn around.