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IL Transactions: Matz, VerHagen, Lynch, De Jong

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The Cardinals activated left-hander Steven Matz off the 15-day injured list today, as Matz was slated to start the Cardinals’ game against the Reds before the contest was rained out.  Matz will now have to wait until after the All-Star break to make his official return to the field, as he has been sidelined since May 22 due to a shoulder impingement.  With the Cards in need of rotation help, a healthy and effective Matz would be a major boost to the team, as both sides must hope that this two-month absence can essentially be a restart on Matz’s season.  After signing a four-year, $44MM free agent deal with St. Louis in November, Matz stumbled out of the gate with a 6.03 ERA over his first 37 1/3 innings in a Cardinals uniform.

To create room on the active roster, St. Louis placed right-hander Drew VerHagen on the 15-day IL with a right hip impingement.  A similar injury sent VerHagen to the injured list for a little over three weeks earlier this season, and the righty was just activated from another IL stint (due to shoulder problems) earlier this week.  With all of these health issues, it perhaps isn’t surprising that VerHagen has only a 6.65 ERA over 21 2/3 innings, with walks and home runs being particular issues for the 31-year-old.  VerHagen is another offseason signing for the Cards, joining the team on a two-year, $5.5MM deal after spending the previous two seasons pitching in Japan.

More comings and goings off the injured list from around the league…

  • The Royals placed left-hander Daniel Lynch on the 15-day IL, as Lynch is again dealing with a blister problem.  Lynch had already been sent to the IL with that same blister issue on June 24, and he was activated earlier this week and made two abbreviated starts before returning to the sidelines.  It has been a difficult season for Lynch, who has a 5.05 ERA and a wealth of troubling Statcast metrics over 15 starts and 71 1/3 innings.  Lynch’s IL placement was part of a busy day of roster moves for the Royals, who sent 10 players (Angel Zerpa, Nick Pratto, Gabe Speier, Collin Snider, Brewer Hicklen, Michael Massey, Freddy Fermin, Nate Eaton to Triple-A; Sebastian Rivero and Maikel Garcia to Double-A) to the minors in the aftermath of their series in Toronto.  This clears the way for the return of 10 Kansas City players, who were placed on the restricted list due to their non-vaccinated status.
  • The Pirates placed righty Chase De Jong on the 15-day IL due to tendinitis in his left knee, and Bryse Wilson (today’s starting pitcher against the Rockies) was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Another knee injury is perhaps a red flag for De Jong, who underwent surgery on that same left knee last year.  The surgery cut short De Jong’s first season in Pittsburgh, but after signing another minor league deal with the Bucs this past winter, De Jong has rebounded to post a 2.06 ERA over 35 relief innings in 2022.

Nationals To Entertain Trade Offers For Juan Soto After He Rejects $440MM Offer

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TODAY: The Nationals aren’t planning to increase their offer beyond $440MM, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty writes.  Soto is reportedly looking for a deal that is at least a decade long, gives him the most guaranteed money in baseball history, and gives him an AAV at least close to the highest average annual values.  In a Twitter thread, Dougherty suggests that the Nats could come closer to Soto’s demands by offering $440MM over 12 or 13 years rather than 15, though that scenario might not be palatable to the Nationals for luxury tax reasons.

JULY 16, 3:04PM: While the Nationals’ offer didn’t have any deferred money, the $440MM was “heavily backloaded” into the offer’s last six seasons, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.  The offer’s backloaded nature played a part in Soto’s decision, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post, and other factors included the relatively low AAV and the uncertainty surrounding the Nats’ ownership situation.

11:21AM: In a somewhat shocking development, the Washington Nationals will now listen to trade offers for transcendent superstar Juan Soto, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Soto reportedly rejected a $440MM extension offer, prompting the change of heart on the Nationals’ part.

The Nationals have long held the position that they would not be open to trading Soto, their 23-year-old superstar, who is already firmly listed among the best hitters in baseball. The Nationals have some time to make a decision, as Soto is under team control for another two seasons beyond this one. As of right now, however, the team is among the worst in baseball, and their farm system continues to be understocked.

All that said, the Nats have made consistent efforts to come to a contract extension with Soto’s agent Scott Boras, with no success. According to Rosenthal, the latest such offer – the third offer from the Nationals’ side – was for 15 years and a total of $440MM. Perhaps more shocking than the number itself is that the Nats did not include any deferred money in the deal. The Nationals are well known for deferring money in most of their long-term deals. That they were willing to avoid that practice shows some bend on the Nats’ part, but it was not enough to consummate a deal.

If those numbers are correct, the Nats’ offer would have given Soto an AAV of $29.33MM over that 15-year span, which falls a little shy of some of the game’s top contracts. While that’s nothing to scoff at, it would not be a record-setting number. The total dollar amount would, however, top MLB’s largest contracts.

The deal would have carried Soto through to his 38th birthday, effectively locking him in as a National for the entirety of his career. It’s certainly a large chunk of money to offer, but Soto might not be so ready to put a cap on his career earnings – even such a lofty one. Soto is currently making $17.1MM this season, with another two arbitration raises yet to come in his final two seasons. If he stays healthy, he’ll easily make more than $29.33MM AAV by his final season before free agency.

With their latest offer rejected, the Nats will now spend the next couple of weeks listening to trade offers for Soto ahead of the August 2nd trade deadline. Certainly, given the team control remaining, the Nationals would have to be floored by an offer in order to move him. The likelihood of a deal at this juncture still feels slim. An offseason deal is more likely. Still, interested parties now have a couple of weeks to begin making headway.

It’s difficult to fathom what exactly it would take to pry Soto loose from the Nationals. No matter what the return package, it’s sure to seem light in the eyes of local fans. Soto is the lone superstar and fan attraction at this point. The club has seen the departure of organizational mainstays like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Ryan Zimmerman in the past calendar year alone. Without Soto, the club would be starting from scratch, especially given the state of the farm system. A player of Soto’s stature does not come along frequently, and it’s unlikely they could recoup anywhere close to equal value for Soto.

For the Nationals to deal him, they have to really believe they have no chance of signing him to a long-term contract extension. Perhaps this latest rejection makes that point for them. From the outside, there are certainly ways in which the Nats could improve their offer, namely with a larger AAV, which does seem to be something that matters to players. They have, as is often pointed out, crossed this bridge with Boras before, both in signing Stephen Strasburg to a long-term deal, and in not coming to terms with players like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.

Complicating matters on both sides is the uncertain future of the Nats’ ownership situation. If the Lerners do, in fact, plan on selling the club, keeping Soto on the roster would seem to be positive, almost necessary. A new ownership group would likely rather have Soto than whatever handful of prospects would come back in a deal. And yet, Soto might be disinclined to commit to a new ownership group. How much can the team be sold for if part of the deal necessitates giving Soto more than $440MM? And yet, the franchise has to be far less attractive to potential buyers without Soto as a marketing centerpiece. How intent the Lerners are in selling the Nats might be the crux of this entire situation.

In many ways, it’s reasonable to expect an end to this saga – one way or the other – by the beginning of next season. Unlike a situation like, say, the Cubs had with Kris Bryant, the Nats have no hope of contending at this present moment, which might make them less inclined to suffer the constant trade rumors. When the Cubs held onto Bryant through years of rumors, they were, at least, competitive year-by-year, giving them cause to hold onto Bryant, even if it meant seeing him walk as a free agent. For the Nationals, Soto’s future is the only story in DC until it gets resolved.

For now, it’s going to be a tense couple of weeks for Nats’ fans as they await the trade deadline. Even if Soto stays beyond August 2nd, the trade rumors are going to continue to swirl. The Nationals have to be wondering if Soto’s uncertain future is a tenable situation. If they can’t find the right deal, however, they need to be willing to wait.

Rays’ Harold Ramirez Suffers Broken Thumb

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Rays first baseman/outfielder Harold Ramirez left today’s game after being hit on his hand by a pitch. The club later announced to reporters, including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, that he has a broken right thumb and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.

Ramirez, 27, has been somewhat quietly having an excellent breakout season in Tampa. Although he’s only walking 6.1% of the time, he’s also only striking out at a 13.7% clip, producing a batting line of .329/.376/.446. The resulting wRC+ of 141 indicates he’s been 41% better than the league average hitter. Among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, that’s the 23rd highest mark across the majors, just ahead of Pete Alonso.

While any team would surely suffer to lose that kind of production for a few weeks, it’s especially noteworthy for a Rays team that’s had a host of injuries to deal with, including in the outfield. When Ramirez is inevitably placed on the injured list, he will join Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot. In Kiermaier’s case, his injury has the potential to be season-ending, per Topkin, though more details will come on that after he sees a specialist in the weeks to come. Margot might return at some point this season, but not soon. Even if Ramirez’s thumb is okay in a couple of weeks, he will likely need to get in some rehab work in order to get back into game shape.

That leaves the club with Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Brett Phillips and Luke Raley as their regular outfielders. Arozarena is having another good season, but the rest are all hitting at below-average rates right now, with none of the three producing a wRC+ higher than 71 on the year, coming into today’s game. Brandon Lowe has played outfield in the past but only just returned from the IL in the last couple of days. He played second base yesterday but is the designated hitter today. Vidal Bruján is in the minors and could be recalled, though he also struggled in his MLB action this year, producing a wRC+ of just 41.

Despite all their injury woes, the Rays began today in the top American League Wild Card spot with a record of 50-41, meaning they will likely look to do some buying ahead of the August 2 trade deadline. There were a number of outfielders featured on MLBTR’s recent list of top trade candidates, including Andrew Benintendi, David Peralta, Ian Happ, and many others.

Tigers Option Spencer Torkelson

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The Tigers announced to reporters, including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, that first baseman Spencer Torkelson has been optioned to Triple-A Toledo. The corresponding move will be announced later, as today’s game was postponed due to rain, meaning the Tigers don’t play again until after the All-Star break.

The first overall selection of the 2020 draft, Torkelson immediately shot onto prospect lists, with Baseball America ranking him #5 overall in 2021. Torkelson did nothing to diminish his prospect status last year, as he mashed at High-A, then got promoted to Double-A and Triple-A all in one year. Across those three levels, he hit 30 home runs, 29 double and a pair of triples, producing an overall batting line of .267/.383/.552. He walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and struck out in 21.5% of them.

Coming into 2022, he was again slotted into the #5 spot on BA’s prospect list and seemed poised for big things after cracking the Tigers’ Opening Day roster. Unfortunately, he hasn’t yet been able to translate his immense hitting ability to the big leagues. Through his first 298 plate appearances, he has hit just .197/.282/.295, resulting in a 68 wRC+. Put another way, that’s production 32% worse than league average.

Torkelson is still capable of putting a charge into the ball, as his max exit velocity is considered to be in the 80th percentile, according to Statcast. However, his hard hit percentage is just 39th percentile and his barrel percentage just 37th, suggesting that he’s not lining up the ball with consistency.

While it’s surely a disappointing result for the Tigers and their fans, it’s worth remembering that there’s still plenty of time for Torkelson to turn things around. He only spent one year in the minors before the aggressive push by the club to add him to the big league team. He’s still just 22 years old, turning 23 in August. Since the club is 37-55 and has no hope of a postseason push this year, they can afford to take whatever steps they think give Torkelson the best chance of long-term success, which they think will be some time in the minors.

Manager A.J. Hinch spoke to reporters about the decision today (Twitter links from Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic and Jason Beck of MLB.com), saying that they want to get him back on track away from the scrutiny that comes from being in the big leagues. “It’s much less spotlight to do it in Triple A than it is to continue to do this in the big leagues,” Hinch said. “He’s too good a hitter for us to just continue to let him grind at this level and not reach the desired results.”

As for the timeline or Torkelson’s return, it seems like that will be dependent on his results. “I told Tork it could be 10 days, it could be two weeks, could be a month. It doesn’t matter how long it takes to get him back to feeling good.” The length of time of this optional assignment could potentially have impacts for Torkelson down the line in terms of arbitration and free agency. Since he made the club’s Opening Day roster, he was in line to earn a full year of MLB service time, setting him up to reach arbitration after the 2024 campaign and free agency after 2027. A major league season is 187 days long, but it takes just 172 days on a big league roster for a player to earn a full year of service time. If Torkelson misses more than two weeks of action, he could come up short of the one-year mark here in 2022, therefore pushing his free agency back by a year. Players also reach arbitration after three years, though it’s also possible to qualify as a Super Two player, with the top 22% of players between two and three years service time being eligible. That means the target moves slightly each year, oscillating from 2.115 to 2.146 since 2009.

Nationals To Re-Sign Dee Strange-Gordon To Minors Deal

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The Nationals are signing another minor league deal with utility player Dee Strange-Gordon, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. He and the Nats agreed to a minor league deal in the offseason, with Strange-Gordon cracking the Opening Day Roster but getting released last month.

Strange-Gordon, 34, made his MLB debut in 2011 with the Dodgers and spent another three seasons there. He then spent three seasons each with the Marlins and Mariners, rarely hitting for much power overall but providing plenty of speed and athleticism. In 1,025 career games, he’s hit just 18 home runs but has stolen 336 bases, producing an overall batting line of .286/.319/.360.

With the Nats this year, he was used sparingly, getting into just 23 games over a two-month stretch on the roster, though a two-week stint on the COVID IL also played a part in that. As a National, he produced a nice .305 batting average but not a single walk or home run, leading to a slash line of .305/.305/.356, wRC+ of 82.

After getting designated for assignment in mid-June, he rejected an outright assignment and returned to free agency. Now, almost a month later, he’s returned to the Nats’ organization. Although he was squeezed off of the roster at that time, it’s possible that more openings are created in the coming weeks. With the August 2 trade deadline just over two weeks away and the Nationals holding the worst record in baseball at 30-63, they are obvious sellers. MLBTR’s recent list of trade candidates highlighted Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz, Cesar Hernandez and Victor Robles as guys who could potentially be subtracted from the lineup. Then there was a bombshell report yesterday that the club will consider trading superstar Juan Soto.

Regardless of how it plays out, it seems likely that at least a couple of guys will be on the move soon, which could provide a path for Strange-Gordon to return to the big league club as a bench/utility option. Earlier this year, he played shortstop, left field and center field, but has also spent most of his career at second base prior to this season.

Red Sox Place Trevor Story On 10-Day Injured List

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Red Sox second baseman Trevor Story has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right hand contusion, retroactive to July 14.  Story hasn’t played since July 12, when he was hit by a pitch on his right hand.  Catcher Connor Wong has been called up to take Story’s spot on the active roster.

X-rays were negative on Story’s hand, so it appears as though he avoided any long-term damage, even if he hasn’t been ready to play for the better part of a week.  The Sox had been hoping that Story could play during this series against the Yankees, but with the All-Star break looming, the club may have opted to give Story a chance to fully recover.  Between the backdated placement and the four days of the break, Story would be eligible to be activated on July 24, during Boston’s series with the Blue Jays to open up the second half.

It has been an up-and-down start to Story’s Red Sox tenure, as his first 342 plate appearances in a Boston uniform have resulted in a .221/.289/.423 slash line and 15 home runs.  This translates to below-average (93 wRC+/94 OPS+) offensive production overall, and Story has only one truly red-hot stretch to his name this year, when he crushed nine homers over a 63-PA stretch in May.  He is among the league leaders in strikeout rate, as his 30.7% mark is his highest since the 2017 season.

This production is well below what Story delivered in his prime years with the Rockies, and it surely isn’t what the Red Sox expected when they signed Story to a six-year, $140MM deal in March.  The team can only hope Story heals up and then uses the All-Star break as something of a reset, since an in-form Story would be a huge boost to Boston’s chances of reaching the postseason.  Promisingly, Story has a tendency to come on late, with an .894 career OPS in the second half of the season (as opposed to an .815 OPS in the first half).

Diamondbacks Open To Discussing Christian Walker In Trade Talks

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The Diamondbacks are open to talking about trades involving first baseman Christian Walker, The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reports.  While this doesn’t necessarily mean that Walker is being shopped, it does provide another view into how the D’Backs could be approaching the trade deadline.

Arizona is in last place in the NL West, with a 39-51 record and sizeable deficits to make up in the division race (20.5 games behind the Dodgers) and the wild card race (nine games).  As such, it looks like the D’Backs will be deadline sellers for the third consecutive year, yet their willingness to discuss Walker represents something of a change from the team’s strategy.  In both 2020 and 2021, the Diamondbacks were only looking to move shorter-term veterans, rather than deal any core players and trigger a wider-scale rebuilding effort.  As such, players like Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte were kept, and Marte even signed a new contract extension prior to the season.

Walker represents perhaps a middle ground between veterans under short-term control and what Arizona considers its core players.  Walker is a veteran in own right, playing in his age-31 season, and yet he is still only in his first year of arbitration eligibility.  After agreeing to a $2.6MM salary for 2022, Walker is arb-controlled through the 2024 campaign.

This makes Walker a relatively inexpensive option for a D’Backs team that traditionally works within a limited budget.  However, the team could be considering Walker’s age, the fact that prospect Seth Beer could be ready to step into a more regular first-base role, and perhaps simply a desire to sell high on Walker during a strong season.

Emerging as the Diamondbacks’ top first base option in 2019, Walker hit .262/.344/.471 with 36 homers over 846 plate appearances in 2019-20 before struggling through some injuries last year.  He has bounced back nicely, hitting .206/.319/.467 with 22 home runs in 361 PA, translating to a 116 wRC+/121 OPS+.

As Piecoro noted, Walker’s Statcast numbers are even more impressive, with plenty of hard-contact and an elite 13.3% walk rate.  If anything, Walker’s real-world numbers don’t reflect his overall offensive quality, as his .339 wOBA is well under a whopping .400 xwOBA.  Defensively, Walker has been one of baseball’s best first-base gloves, with +8 Outs Above Average, +12 Defensive Runs Saved, and +4.5 UZR/150.

There’s plenty here to attract rival teams, and Walker’s trade value is enhanced by his extra years of control.  Josh Bell and Trey Mancini are considered the top first basemen available as the deadline approaches, but both players can test free agency after the season (Mancini is widely expected to turn down his end of a mutual option for 2023).  The D’Backs could potentially shop Walker to not just current contenders, but to teams who might not be full-fledged contenders now but would be looking to vie for the playoffs by 2023.

For his own part, Walker isn’t worrying about any possible trade rumors, saying “just because somebody is an option to be traded, another team still has to want them.  There’s a lot of moving pieces in it, like getting something that’s worth it in return.  There are a lot of things that are above my pay grade, to some extent.  For me, it’s a better mental spot to ignore it and if you get a phone call, you get a phone call.  If not, this is my team and these are my teammates.”

Yankees Place Miguel Castro On 15-Day Injured List

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The Yankees placed right-hander Miguel Castro on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain.  The placement is retroactive to July 13.  To fill the open roster spot, New York called up outfielder Tim Locastro from Triple-A.

The injury will sideline Castro well beyond the 15-day minimum, as manager Aaron Boone told The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler and other reporters that Castro will likely be shut down from throwing for four weeks.  Counting the ramp-up and rehab time necessary after that shutdown period, it doesn’t look like Castro will be back in the Yankees’ bullpen until September, assuming his recovery goes smoothly.

It’s a tough break for both Castro and the Yankees, as the 27-year-old has posted some respectable numbers in his first season in the Bronx.  Acquired from the Mets for Joely Rodriguez just prior to Opening Day, Castro has a 4.00 ERA, 46.6% grounder rate, and an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate over 27 relief innings.  As has been the case for much of his career, walks have been an issue for Castro, but his 10.7% walk rate (while only the 18th percentile of all pitchers this season) is actually his best number since 2017.

Looking at other Yankee relievers on the IL, Zack Britton is expected to return from Tommy John surgery rehab in September, while righty Ron Marinaccio (shoulder inflammation) could be back for the start of the second half.  New York was already expected to explore pitching options prior to the trade deadline, with both starting and relief candidates likely on the radar.

Reds Place Dauri Moreta On Injured List, Select Ryan Hendrix

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The Reds placed right-hander Dauri Moreta on the injured list, and selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Hendrix from Triple-A.  No official designation was given for Moreta’s placement, so it would seem to be related to COVID-19.

Cincinnati is swapping one second-year righty for another, as both Moreta and Hendrix made their big league debuts in 2021.  Moreta tossed 3 2/3 innings in the majors last year and then 26 2/3 frames this season, with a 7.09 ERA to show for his 2022 work.  The long ball is the chief reason for Moreta’s struggles, as he has allowed nine home runs over his 26 2/3 innings.

Hendrix’s career resume is essentially the opposite of Moreta’s, with 31 2/3 innings in his rookie season and then only 3 1/3 innings in 2022.  Unfortunately for Hendrix, he has also had trouble keeping the ball in the park, with eight homers allowed over his short time as a Major League hurler.  He got a brief look with the Reds back in April before being designated for assignment and then outrighted to Triple-A.

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