Big Hype Prospects: Alvarez, Muller, Ruiz, Naylor, Westburg
Our coverage of in-the-news prospects continues. A couple signings and the Sean Murphy trade give us plenty of fodder to chew upon. The Braves did an excellent job of converting unneeded role players into a premium upgrade. We’ll touch on several of the former-Braves now enjoy new homes with the Athletics and Brewers.
Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 495 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511
The Mets continue to fortify their Major League roster, building out a resiliency of depth they’ve lacked for… the entirety of my living memory. The Mets have always been a club of “just enough,” a formula that rarely works in a 162-game season with extended playoffs.
The addition of catcher Omar Narvaez to veterans James McCann and Tomas Nido seemingly gives New York the opportunity to promote Alvarez if and when they believe he is ready for a regular starting role. That could be immediately out of Spring Training or later in the season. Cynically, it’s worth noting the Mets might gain an extra season of club control by holding Alvarez back until late April. Due to his age, there’s appeal to such an approach.
The recently-turned 21-year-old had a brief cup of coffee to finish 2022. He flashed trademark power, discipline, and a tendency to whiff. At this early stage of his career, he might be a tad too disciplined – a common issue for precocious, discipline-oriented sluggers. Minor league pitchers are exploitable in ways Major Leaguers are not. A second stint in Triple-A – where he compiled 199 plate appearances with a 121 wRC+ – could help him to add a touch of targeted aggression to his approach. Otherwise, he risks carrying over-30 percent strikeout rates early in his career. The tools are there for more acceptable whiff rates. Even without that adjustment, he profiles as an above average hitter.
Then there’s the matter of defense where some of his mechanics are a tad unconventional. This is made necessary by his stocky build. He doesn’t squat as deeply into his crouch as most catchers. Without runners on base, he uses a kneeling approach. There are questions about his blocking (when kneeling) and pitch-framing (when squating). Even his arm, which is at least 60-grade, could play down if opponents correctly guess when he squats and kneels.
Kyle Muller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 134.2 IP, 10.63 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 3.41 ERA
The highest-rated prospect dealt by the Braves in the Sean Murphy trade, Muller has performed well against Triple-A competition for two straight seasons. With the Braves contending and enjoying considerable rotation depth, Muller hasn’t received many opportunities in the Majors. In total, the southpaw has made 12 appearances, 11 starts, for a total of 49 innings with a 5.14 ERA. Muller has a four-pitch repertoire. Three pitches grade out as average or better. His changeup is considered a platoon pitch. His ascent has been slowed by poor command. Although his low walk rate last season seems a positive development, none of the contacts I reached out to believe his command has truly improved. As of now, he profiles as an inefficient fifth starter or high-upside reliever.
Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 541 PA, 16 HR, 85 SB, .332/.447/.526
The other notable prospect in the Murphy swap, Ruiz had a season to remember in the minors. Neither the Padres nor Brewers gave him many opportunities in the Majors despite rostering him for a considerable chunk of the season. All told, he attempted 102 steals and succeeded 86 times (84.3%) over a total of 576 plate appearances. With new rules on the way, Ruiz could find himself among the stolen base leaders if he hits enough to merit a starting role.
That last detail is in doubt. Despite incredible minor league numbers last season, a half dozen public scouting reports all point to a reserve role. The Athletics undoubtedly hope experience will unlock at least a second-division starter upside – as they attempted with Cristian Pache last season. While he’s drawn some (very) lazy comps to Alfonso Soriano for his combination of power and speed, Ruiz’s hit tool is suspect. He’s shown an ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts, but he seems to do this at the expense of exit velocity. As such, his power plays down in games since he’s so rarely taking his best swing.
Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 510 PA, 21 HR, 20 SB, .263/.392/.496
Between the lost 2020 season and a terrible 2021 campaign, Naylor found himself entering last year with much to prove. He recovered his prospect panache by adjusting his swing mechanics and now profiles as the Guardians catcher of the future. He even made eight plate appearances for Cleveland, though he went hitless with five strikeouts. The defense-oriented Guardians opted to bring in Mike Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal to bridge the gap.
Naylor has rare speed for a backstop. The last catching prospect to display similar wheels was Daulton Varsho. The last such catcher to stick at the position as a longterm starter was J.T. Realmuto. Naylor’s defense doesn’t draw rave reviews, but it’s merely below average. A scout I questioned believed he can be an average defender. Cleveland’s preference for elite defensive catchers might lead to a position switch for trade for Naylor. I keep thinking back to Varsho, an acceptable but unexceptional catcher who turned into a gold glove center fielder almost overnight.
Jordan Westburg, 23, SS, BAL (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 622 PA, 27 HR, 12 SB, .265/.355/.496
One of my beats last year was with an Orioles blog, Baltimore Sports and Life. At the end of the season, there were two schools of thought regarding the Orioles 2023 middle infield. One group (including me), advocated for signing one of the four free agent shortstops, moving Gunnar Henderson to third base, and using Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias at second base until prospects arrived. Others were ready to hand the keys directly to Westburg (or the next guy below) and save the budget for one of the top pitchers on the market.
Baltimore GM Mike Elias opted for Door #3, choosing to ink Adam Frazier on a one-year rebound contract eerily reminiscent of the deal handed to Rougned Odor prior to last season. While Frazier won’t truly block Westburg or others, his presence will help delay the need to promote them. Nevertheless, Westburg is seemingly ready. He spent most of last season in Triple-A where he posted a 129 wRC+. As a hitter, he’s a well-rounded pile of 50-grades. He might be going down a Willy Adames-like path – not a household name but better than a typical core performer. He’s a tad stretched defensively on the left side of the infield, but he should be an above average defender at the keystone. While there’s utility risk here, it’s a premium version of it – in the same way that Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman, and Jake Cronenworth are “utility men.”
Four More
Joey Ortiz, BAL (23): One of my favorite Peripheral Prospects, Ortiz isn’t all that highly rated nationally. The Orioles love him. He’s contact-oriented and gets to more game power than you might expect based on his size. He’s trained as a utility man who profiles as a plus defensive second baseman and acceptable elsewhere. He might just beat Westburg to the Majors. Ortiz is already on the 40-man roster.
Jeter Downs, BOS (24): When the Red Sox acquired Downs in the Mookie Betts trade, he was an up-and-comer with impressive minor league stats. With Boston, he developed a serious swinging strike problem – and a commensurate 30 percent strikeout rate. Questions about his hit tool predated the trade, but this outcome feels like a total developmental failure. Now in DFA limbo, Downs looks like somebody another org might be able to salvage.
Freddy Tarnok, OAK (24): It’s been a slow burn for Tarnok who has long profiled as a future big leaguer even without flashing standout skills. He has a four-pitch repertoire, but his secondaries need further refinement. The short path to the Majors is via the bullpen where his velocity might play up. Oakland can afford to be patient.
Royber Salinas, OAK (21): The last notable prospect acquired by Oakland for Murphy, Salinas has starter caliber stuff and poor command. The instinct among evaluators is to move him to relief and watch him take off. He’s entering his Rule 5 evaluation year which could force the Athletics hand.
What’s Left Of The Catching Market?
The past couple of weeks have seen many of the top layers of the catching market come off the board. The top trade candidate, Sean Murphy, will be moving from Oakland to Atlanta. Four of the best free agents also found new homes, with Willson Contreras joining the Cardinals, Christian Vázquez going to the Twins, Mike Zunino to the Guardians and Omar Narváez to the Mets.
There are still plenty of teams that have either been reported to be seeking an upgrade or make sense for one, including the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Astros, Giants, Pirates, Padres, Tigers, Rays, Angels, Marlins and Red Sox. So, what options do they have left? Let’s take a look.
Free Agents
Sánchez, 30, is generally regarded as a bat-first catcher, having launched 154 home runs in his career so far. His overall batting line is .225/.311/.467, leading to a wRC+ of 109. That indicates he’s been 9% better than the league average hitter, but even further ahead of the average backstop since they tend to produce a bit less with the bat.
The flipside of that potent bat is below-average defense, with Defensive Runs Saved giving him a -8 for his career so far and FanGraphs’ framing metric grading him at -8.0. His 2022 was a bit of a reversal for him, with those defensive grades coming in slightly above average as his offense slipped to .205/.282/.377 (89 wRC+)
Hedges, 30, might be the best defensive catcher in the league but will unfortunately put a hole in a lineup. In 2,001 career plate appearances, he’s hit .189/.247/.331 for a wRC+ of 54. His last four seasons have finished with a wRC+ under 50. However, his 75 DRS since his debut in 2015 is tops in the majors while FanGraphs gives his framing a 64.7 in that time, which trails only Yasmani Grandal and Tyler Flowers.
Pérez, 34 next week, is a similar glove-first option like Hedges, though he’s more likely to be useful at the plate. His career batting line is .207/.298/.360 for a wRC+ of 77. He’s posted double-digit walk rates in each season aside from his 2014 debut for a career clip of 10.8%, though he’s also struck out in 29.7% of his plate appearances. The overall production is inconsistent from year to year, as Perez has thrice finished a season with a wRC+ above 100 but also been below 60 in four seasons.
Defensively, Perez has 79 DRS since his 2014 debut, tops in the majors in that stretch, while his framing is in the top ten at FanGraphs. Injuries are a concern, as he hasn’t played even 55 games in a season since 2019. His 2022 season with the Pirates was wiped out after just 21 contests due to hamstring surgery.
Barnhart, 32 next month, provides a less extreme profile than the others on this list. He’s hit .245/.320/.360 in his career for a wRC+ of 80. He’s never posted a wRC+ higher than 90 but he’s also never finished below 63, apart from his brief debut in 2014. That 63, however, was just this past season with Detroit, when he batted .221/.287/.267.
On the glove side, Barnhart has 12 DRS for his career. That’s well behind Hedges and Perez but still above-average. FanGraphs has graded his framing as poor on the whole, but it bottomed out in 2018 and was above-average in next three seasons before dipping just below in 2022. Although defensive metrics don’t paint him as a lights-out defender, Barnhart has won a pair of Gold Gloves, including in 2017 when he nabbed a league-leading 44% of runners who attempted to swipe a base on his watch.
Alfaro, 30 in June, was once considered one of the top prospects in baseball, with his ability to provide a power bat from the catching position his standout tool. Some of that power has shown up, as he’s hit 47 home runs in 478 games, roughly three seasons’ worth. However, his flaws in other areas have largely gotten in the way. He has -17 DRS in his career so far and below-average framing. He’s also struck out in 34.1% of his plate appearances, negating a lot of the value he provides by actually launching the ball over the fence. His career batting line is .256/.305/.396 for a wRC+ of 89.
Depth/Backup Types
There are a few other free agent backstops, though they aren’t likely to move the needle too much, most likely to be signed as backups or depth options. They include Curt Casali, Robinson Chirinos, Kevin Plawecki, Austin Romine and Sandy León.
Trade Candidates
Blue Jays
The Jays have been expected to trade from their catching surplus at some point this winter, though they’ve yet to pull the trigger. It was reported a couple of weeks ago that they were planning to wait until some of the top free agents were signed before focusing on trading one of their backstops. That’s now come to pass, and the club has also dealt with other matters by signing Chris Bassitt and Kevin Kiermaier, so perhaps a trade is now top of the agenda.
The fact that they are considering a trade is perfectly logical, given that they have three quality backstops. Gabriel Moreno is considered the No. 3 prospect in the game by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. The club has given some thought of moving him to third base or left field in order to get him into the lineup, but that wouldn’t be the best use of his talents. His power is generally considered the weakest part of his game, with his defense and contact skills the highlights. He spent most of 2022 in Triple-A but made his MLB debut late in the season, hitting .319/.356/.377 in 73 plate appearances. He still has one option year remaining but doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors after hitting .315/.386/.420 for Buffalo this year, producing a 120 wRC+.
The Jays also have Danny Jansen, who turns 28 in April with two remaining years of control, and Alejandro Kirk, who’s 24 and has four control years left. Over the past two seasons, Jansen has been a roughly average framer and produced 5 DRS. He’s hit .243/.321/.496 in that time for a 124 wRC+ but has also been limited to just 142 games in that two-year stretch thanks to a pair of hamstring strains, an oblique strain and a broken finger.
Kirk was limited by injury to just 60 games in 2021 but got into 139 contests in 2022. When combined with his nine-game debut in 2020, his career batting line is .278/.362/.426, wRC+ of 124. He has 6 DRS and a 6.1 from FanGraphs’ framing metric. The Jays arguably have three catchers that could immediately jump to the top of the depth chart for some other clubs and should be fielding many calls. Jansen has been cited as the most likely to move since he is the nearest to free agency and will be making a modest arbitration salary projected at $3.7MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Mets
The Mets agreed to a deal with Narváez last night, adding to what was already something of a crowded picture. He joins James McCann, Tomás Nido and Francisco Álvarez in the catching corps in Queens. Like Moreno, Álvarez is considered one of the best prospects in the game. However, his profile includes better power and lesser defense. He’s also mashed in Triple-A and has made his MLB debut, but there would at least be some argument to keeping him in the minors to continue developing his glovework. Then again, the club could consider carrying three catchers in the big leagues in order to get his bat into the lineup as a designated hitter when he’s not catching.
If Álvarez is going to be part of the big league team, someone else has to go. McCann, 33 in June, had a strong two-year run with the White Sox over 2019 and 2020, hitting .276/.334/.474 for a wRC+ of 114. He parlayed that into a four-year, $40.6MM deal with the Mets, but has taken a dip since then. He hit .232/.294/.349 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 80 and then dipped to .195/.257/.282 this year for a wRC+ of 59. He also made multiple trips to the IL and only got into 61 games. It’s possible some team might take a chance on a bounceback, but with two years and $24MM left on his deal, the Mets would have to eat some money or take a similarly undesirable contract back in exchange. Nido, 29 in April, has never hit much, apart from a brief surge in the shortened 2020 campaign. His career batting line is .220/.257/.323 (62 wRC+). He’s quite strong on defense though, with 19 DRS in his career and above-average framing in each season so far. He has two years of club control remaining and is projected for an arbitration salary of $1.6MM.
Anyone Else?
It always possible that a subsequent signing or trade will turn a new team into a potential trader, like the Mets did yesterday. The Braves’ acquisition of Murphy led to some speculation that they would then flip Travis d’Arnaud. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos insists that d’Arnaud isn’t going anywhere, but he also said they didn’t anticipate a Murphy trade about a week before it happened, so things could change. The A’s grabbed Manny Piña in that deal to act as a veteran backup to Shea Langeliers but it wouldn’t necessarily be a shock to see them flip him elsewhere. Turning 36 in June, he’s making $4.5MM this season with a $4MM option for 2024 with no buyout. The Padres have Austin Nola, Luis Campusano and Brett Sullivan on their roster, but they reportedly pursued Sean Murphy during the 2022 season. If they acquired some other catcher, perhaps they would then pivot to trading one their incumbents. The Diamondbacks could shop Carson Kelly if they succeed in upgrading behind the plate. The Angels were reportedly a finalist for Willson Contreras, which could have perhaps led to Max Stassi heading to the trading block.
Tyler Beede Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants
The Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced Friday that they’ve signed right-hander Tyler Beede to a one-year contract. Beede himself announced the deal as well in a video message to his new club’s fan base (Twitter link). It’ll be the first stint overseas for Beede, a former first-round pick and top prospect with MLB’s own San Francisco Giants.
Now 29 years old, Beede was actually a two-time first-round pick, declining to sign out of high school in 2011 after the Blue Jays selected him with the No. 21 pick and then ultimately signing with San Francisco, who selected him out of Vanderbilt with the 14th pick three years later.
Beede ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects after a strong 2016 showing in Double-A, and he made his big league debut in 2018, tossing 7 2/3 innings but yielding seven runs in that small sample. He received a lengthier look in 2019 but was uncharacteristically homer-prone (1.69 HR/9) — a common trend among pitchers that season due to changes to the composition of the baseball. Beede logged 117 innings with the Giants in 2019 but yielded a 5.08 ERA.
A flexor strain and UCL strain early in spring training 2020 served as a portent for eventual Tommy John surgery, and Beede was limited to just 49 1/3 innings in 2021 (just one in the Majors) while finishing off his rehab from that procedure. After a rocky start to his 2022 season — five runs on 14 hits and six walks with four strikeouts in 9 2/3 frames — the Giants designated the now-out-of-options Beede for assignment and lost him to the Pirates on a waiver claim.
Things didn’t go much better for Beede in Pittsburgh, where he stumbled to a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings, fanning just 14.8% of his opponents against a higher-than-average 9.7% walk rate. The Pirates designated Beede for assignment themselves in September and this time successfully passed him through waivers. The right-hander became a minor league free agent at season’s end, and he’ll now look to turn his fortunes around in Japan.
Though Beede doesn’t have much in the way of big league success, he was a clearly touted arm dating back to his days as an amateur and throughout the early portion of his professional career. He carries an unsightly 5.40 career ERA in parts of five Triple-A seasons, with particularly rough showings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in both 2018 and 2021. Beede won’t be 30 until May, so he’s still young enough to parlay some NPB success into a big league return, as we’ve seen plenty of pitchers do in recent years.
Braves Sign Ehire Adrianza To Minor League Deal
The Braves have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran utilityman Ehire Adrianza, reports Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He’ll be invited to Major League Spring Training. Atlanta also signed infielder Mitchell Tolman to a minor league pact, per Toscano, though he won’t be in big league camp this spring. Adrianza would earn a $1MM salary if selected to the Major League roster, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base reports.
Adrianza, 33, has spent time with the Braves in each of the past two seasons, including a solid 2021 showing that saw him post a .247/.327/.401 batting line (95 wRC+) while logging time at five different positions. That 2021 campaign, however, has been bookended by a pair of dreary seasons at the plate, the most recent of which saw the switch-hitting Adrianza slash just .175/.264/.206 in 110 trips to the plate between the Nationals and Braves.
While Adrianza graded out as an above-average defender at shortstop earlier in his career, he’s drawn negative reviews in recent seasons and, accordingly, spent more time at third base, second base and in the outfield corners. Adrianza has at least fleeting experience at every position on the diamond other than catcher, but he’s posted just a .215/.301/.318 batting line dating back to 2020.
The 28-year-old Tolman is a defensively versatile player himself, having logged substantial time at second base, third base and shortstop in a seven-year minor league career. The bulk of that time (4406 innings) has come at second base, but Tolman also has 950 innings at the hot corner and 508 innings at shortstop under his belt. He’s a career .257/.348/.450 hitter in Triple-A and spent the 2022 season with the Guardians’ Triple-A club, where he slashed .251/.350/.425 slash in 423 trips to the plate.
The Opener: Swanson, Blue Jays, Padres
Coming off the heels of a day where we saw another major signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world throughout the day.
1. Swanson is the last man standing.
For a few days now, Dansby Swanson has been the last of the four star shortstops that hit the free agent market this offseason to remain available. Now, with lefty Carlos Rodon headed to the Yankees on a six-year deal, Swanson is the last top-tier free agent at any position. He’s one of just two players still on the market who ranked in the top 20 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents at the start of the offseason, joining No. 15 Andrew Benintendi. Swanson appears to be in a good position, with teams such as the Cubs, Twins, and Red Sox, who missed out on the other top-of-market free agents they’ve pursued, potentially in the market along with the incumbent Braves. MLBTR readers voted the Cubs, Braves and Twins (in that order) as the likeliest landing spots for Swanson in a poll yesterday.
2. When will the Blue Jays look to move a catcher?
The Blue Jays have been open to dealing one of their catchers throughout the offseason, and with the free agent catching market thinning out by the day, the Jays’ catchers are the top remaining options on either the trade or free-agent markets. Most recently, Omar Narvaez agreed to a deal to join the Mets yesterday, and Mike Zunino landed with the Guardians just a few days before. With Tucker Barnhart and Austin Hedges now among the best remaining options available behind the plate, it would be no wonder if catching-needy teams began to explore a trade with Toronto more aggressively. The Cubs are in need of a catcher to pair with Yan Gomes after Willson Contreras left for St. Louis, while the Astros were a finalist for Contreras and had interest in a trade for Sean Murphy, suggesting they’re a candidate to weigh a trade with the Blue Jays as well. Perhaps the most interesting partner would be the Diamondbacks, who were reportedly interested in Murphy and have a handful of big-league ready, lefty-hitting outfielders who could provide some much-needed balance to a lineup which is overwhelmingly right-handed.
3. Will San Diego’s aggressiveness continue?
San Diego has been one of the league’s most aggressive team for years now, and that hasn’t changed this offseason as they signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal last week. Still, it appears possible they could make even more additions to impact the team before Opening Day. The Padres, for instance, were reported finalists for righty Chris Bassitt, who ultimately signed with the Blue Jays on a three-year deal. It was a pursuit that made sense for San Diego; despite the strong trio of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell, the back of the rotation — which currently consists of Nick Martinez and Adrian Morejon — has question marks. An additional starter, such as Nathan Eovaldi or Corey Kluber, could bump one of them to the bullpen and solidify the rotation. The Friars also appear to have interest in adding a corner outfield bat, with Jose Azocar currently projected for regular work in left field. However, recent trades have depleted San Diego’s once-stellar farm system, and Roster Resource already projects the Padres over the second tier of luxury tax for 2023, complicating their path to upgrades. Still, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again he should never be counted out of making another major move to improve his club.
Phillies Sign Taijuan Walker
Dec. 16: The Phillies have announced the signing.
Dec. 6: One day after landing Trea Turner on a stunning 11-year contract, the Phillies have bolstered their rotation by agreeing to a four-year deal with free-agent right-hander Taijuan Walker, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo adds that Walker, a client of the Boras Corporation, will be guaranteed $72MM on the deal.
Walker, 30, steps into a deep and talented rotation headlined by co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. He’ll join lefty Ranger Suarez in the third and fourth spots of a rotation whose fifth starter has yet to be determined. Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this offseason that he aimed to sign one veteran starter and leave a starting job open for one of the Phillies’ many in-house options — a list that currently includes left-hander Bailey Falter and top prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry.
The Phils could yet add some further depth, but based on Dombrowski’s earlier comments and the fact that they’ve committed a combined $372MM to Turner and Walker in the past day, it seems unlikely that another high-profile addition is in store. In the wake of agreeing to terms with Turner, Dombrowski voiced a desire to add a mid-rotation arm and to add a back-end reliever — ideally without signing a free agent who’d turned down a qualifying offer. The terms of Walker’s four-year deal have exceeded even the most bullish of expectations, but he nevertheless checks the former of those two boxes, ostensibly setting the stage for the Phillies to shift their sights to the bullpen market.
Walker, a once-elite pitching prospect who pitched just 14 innings from 2017-18 due to shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery, has quickly shaken the “injury-prone” label once associated with his name. Since signing a one-year deal to return to the Mariners in advance of the 2020 season, the 6’4″, 235-pound righty has made a nearly full slate of starts: 11 games in the 60-game 2020 season followed by consecutive seasons of 29 starts with the Mets in 2021-22.
Along the way, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 7.8% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate in a total of 369 2/3 innings. While he’s hardly a flamethrower, Walker sits 93-94 mph with his four-seamer and complements that heater with a four-pitch mix of secondary offerings: splitter, sinker, slider and a more seldom-used curveball. He’s only averaged a bit more than 5 1/3 innings per start in recent years, but some of that could well be a function of the Mets preferring to keep him healthy.
While many teams are reluctant to allow starters to turn a lineup over three times, Walker’s third-time-through-the-order splits are actually fairly strong. Since 2020, when facing an opponent for the third time in a game, Walker has yielded only a .232/.303/.391 batting line. That translates to a .303 wOBA that’s tied with one of his new rotation-mates, Nola, for 37th among 132 starting pitchers in that three-year period.
Solid as Walker’s past few seasons have been, the $72MM guarantee he secured on his new contract remains a fairly eye-popping number. It’s been a bull market for starting pitchers thus far, to say the least, but an $18MM annual value over a four-year term represents a seismic step forward in the market for mid-rotation arms. Walker undoubtedly benefited from his relative youth and a lack of a qualifying offer, but guarantees of this size for a pitcher of this caliber, while not unprecedented, are quite rare. Moreover, while we’ve seen starters of this ilk land guarantees in this range in the past — the Royals signed Ian Kennedy for $70MM, and the Marlins inked Wei-Yin Chen for $80MM — they’ve typically been spread out over a five-year term. Precedent for an AAV of this magnitude, over a relatively long-term deal, for this caliber of pitcher is scarce.
None of that is a knock on Walker, who’s pitched well in his three years since returning from that pair of seasons lost to injury. And, if Walker can continue to pitch at a pace commensurate with his 2022 output in particular, he’ll end up justifying the deal. That said, he’s reached 150 innings only four times in his Major League career and only twice logged a sub-4.00 ERA in a 162-game campaign, so expecting a replica of his 2022 output — particularly in light of a shaky batted-ball profile — would be quite optimistic.
The Phillies, however, needed some stability with Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin and Noah Syndergaard all reaching free agency, and the prices for arms this winter have been strong. Eflin, for instance, landed a $13.33MM AAV in a three-year deal with the low-budget Rays of all teams, and did so on the heels of a season in which he pitched just 75 2/3 innings. Gibson, who turned 35 in October and yielded a 5.05 ERA in 31 starts for the Phillies, still secured a $10MM guarantee on a one-year deal in Baltimore. The price of average-or-better innings — and the price for pitchers who can reliably provide those innings — looks to have increased in the early stages of the newly brokered 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement.
From a payroll vantage point, adding Walker will boost the Phillies to a projected $223.5MM in bottom-line payroll next year, per Roster Resource (assuming an even distribution of the salaries). Moreover, Walker’s $18MM AAV will push the Phillies into luxury-tax territory for what’ll now be a second straight season. They currently project at $235MM, just $2MM north of the $233MM barrier, but it seems fair to expect further additions will be on the horizon — in the bullpen at the very least. As a second-time offender, the Phils will pay a 30% overage on the first $20MM by which they exceed that $233MM line, and they’ll be on the hook for a 42.5% penalty for any overages between $20-40MM.
That seems to matter little to owner John Middleton, who just saw his Phillies fall to the World Series champion Astros in a competitive six-game affair. With Nola set to become a free agent next winter, the 2023 campaign could be the last time he and Wheeler comprise the dynamic one-two punch atop the Philadelphia rotation. Wheeler’s contract is up after the 2024 season, and J.T. Realmuto will turn 32 before Opening Day 2023. The time to win in Philadelphia is now, and in very on-brand fashion, their aggressive owner and similarly aggressive president of baseball operations are making high-priced, straightforward upgrades via the free-agent market to bolster the franchise’s hopes while this elite core is still together and still in its prime.
Mariners, Tommy Milone Agree To Minor League Deal
The Mariners have agreed to a minor league contract with Tommy Milone, according to Triple-A Tacoma’s director of media relations Paul Braverman (Twitter link). The veteran lefty also spent the 2022 campaign in the Mariners organization.
Milone, who turns 36 in February, got into seven MLB games for Seattle this past season. He tossed 16 2/3 innings in low-leverage relief, allowing 10 runs with six walks and five strikeouts. Milone spent a greater chunk of the year at Tacoma, where he started 10 of 11 outings. Over 40 1/3 innings, he provided the Rainiers a 2.68 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk percentage.
A 10th-round pick in the 2008 draft, the USC product has spent a decade and a half in the professional ranks. That’s largely on the back of stellar command, as Milone consistently pounds the strike zone. He doesn’t throw hard or miss many bats, but his reliable control has earned him plenty of depth work as a journeyman.
Milone has gotten to the majors in 12 straight years, suiting up with Washington, Oakland, Minnesota, Milwaukee, the Mets, Seattle, Baltimore, Atlanta and Toronto. He has a 4.60 ERA over 944 1/3 innings in the majors, while he owns a quality 3.27 mark through nine years at Triple-A.
Rays, Brendan McKay Agree To Two-Year Minor League Deal
The Rays are in agreement with left-hander Brendan McKay on a two-year minor league contract, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Tampa Bay has also agreed to traditional one-year minor league deals with catcher Nick Dini and reliever Colten Brewer.
McKay is a former fourth overall pick who has spent his entire career with the Rays. A two-way superstar in college, he increasingly focused on pitching as a professional. An excellent strike-thrower, he moved quickly through the minor leagues and reached the majors by 2019. McKay started 11 of 13 games during his rookie season, showing promising strikeout and walk marks through 49 innings.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to throw a single major league pitch in the four years since then. He missed the shortened 2020 season on account of a shoulder problem that eventually required surgery. The rehab from that procedure kept him out of action until late June 2021. Just a few outings into a minor league rehab stint, McKay suffered a flexor strain in his forearm that again proved to be season-ending. He was then diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and underwent surgery to correct that issue last November.
McKay spent most of 2022 on the injured list recovering from the TOS procedure. He set out on a rehab assignment in mid-July and spent his allotted 30-day window pitching back to Triple-A. The Rays then formally reinstated McKay from the IL but kept him in Durham on an optional assignment. A few days later, he suffered a UCL injury while pitching with the Bulls. Tampa Bay announced in September he’d require Tommy John surgery, an injury that’ll cost him the entire 2023 season.
At the end of this year, the Rays outrighted McKay off their 40-man roster. They released him the following week, a quirk of the minor league service system. He’s spent parts of six seasons in the minors, and he’ll have reached a seventh in 2023. After the ’23 campaign, he’d have qualified for minor league free agency if not added to the 40-man roster anyhow. By releasing him and subsequently re-signing him to a two-year deal, Tampa Bay can keep him in the organization for the 2024 season without a 40-man spot, giving them a chance to reevaluate him after a hopefully successful rehab.
Brewer, 30, pitched in the majors in four straight seasons from 2018-21. He split that time between the Padres and Red Sox, with his most extended work coming for Boston in 2019. The righty has tallied 91 innings over 81 major league appearances, working to a 5.04 ERA. Brewer signed with the Royals for the 2022 campaign. He spent the season at Triple-A Omaha, pitching to a 4.76 ERA over 39 2/3 innings. He struck out a quarter of opponents with a higher than average 10.7% walk rate.
Dini has sparse major league experience, having suited up 20 times for the Royals in 2019. The right-handed hitting catcher played in the Kansas City organization through the 2021 campaign, after which he signed with the Mets. Dini spent the season at Triple-A Syracuse, putting up a .232/.323/.446 line with 11 home runs in 201 trips to the plate.
Royals Sign Cody Poteet, Brooks Kriske To Minor League Deals
The Royals announced four minor league contracts this afternoon. Righties Cody Poteet and Brooks Kriske are joining the organization, while minor league free agent outfielder Seuly Matias returns for an eighth year with the franchise. Kansas City also confirmed their previously reported non-roster agreement with catcher Jakson Reetz.
Poteet is the most notable of the bunch, as he’s picked up some swing work at the major league level over the past couple seasons. A career-long member of the Marlins, he debuted midway through the 2021 season. The righty made seven starts that year, allowing just under five earned runs per nine innings. Poteet generated decent swing-and-miss rates and averaged just under 94 MPH on his heater as a starter, but he struggled with walks and home runs in that limited look. His debut season was cut short by a right knee sprain.
Injuries were again a story in 2022, as the UCLA product missed the bulk of the year with elbow trouble. When healthy, he was primarily relegated to long relief work, starting just two of his 12 outings. Poteet tossed 28 frames over that stretch, putting up a decent 3.86 ERA but seeing his strikeout rate dip to 18.4%. His velocity ticked up in the shorter stints, as he averaged 94.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. Poteet relied more frequently on his changeup, particularly against left-handed batters, while turning to a slider more often against righties.
At season’s end, Miami ran Poteet through outright waivers. He went unclaimed and elected minor league free agency, and he now joins the second organization of his career. The 28-year-old adds a depth option for either the rotation or long relief to the upper levels. He owns a 4.45 ERA over 58 2/3 MLB frames and a 3.81 mark with an 18.8% strikeout rate in parts of seven minor league seasons.
Kriske, 29 in February, has 16 MLB appearances to his name split between the Yankees and Orioles. Those came from 2020-21, with the reliever allowing 25 runs in 15 innings. A USC product, Kriske made the jump to Japan last offseason. He inked a deal with NPB’s Yokohama BayStars and split the season between the highest level and their minor league affiliate. In 18 appearances with the BayStars, Kriske posted a 2.57 ERA over 21 innings. He struck out an excellent 29.2% of batters faced but walked 14.6% of his opponents.
Over parts of four minor league campaigns, most of which were spent in the New York system, Kriske owns a 2.34 ERA. He has a stellar 33.3% strikeout rate in lower levels. Control issues have been a problem throughout his career, as he’s walked 10.7% of minor league hitters. He’s shown the ability to miss plenty of bats against high-level opponents though.
Matias was once a highly regarded prospect, thanks largely to his right-handed power potential. He’s limited to the corner outfield and has dealt with serious swing-and-miss issues throughout his career, with those concerns stalling his move up the ladder. The 24-year-old hit .225/.330/.424 in 414 plate appearances with Double-A Northwest Arkansas this year. Matias connected on 16 home runs while striking out a third of the time. He has yet to reach the majors.
Astros Finalize Coaching Staff
The Astros announced this evening they’ve finalized their coaching staff for the 2023 campaign. It’ll be Dusty Baker’s fourth season running the show as the Astros look to defend their World Series title.
One previously unreported addition is the tabbing of Tommy Kawamura as game planning coach (h/t to Mark Berman of Fox 26). Formerly a member of the team’s advance scouting department in the front office, Kawamura makes the jump to the dugout. It’s a newly-created position for the Astros that’ll presumably increase Baker’s ability to match up with the opposition.
The rest of the staff returns, most in their previous roles. Joe Espada is back for a sixth season as bench coach. Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker return as co-hitting coaches; Jason Kanzler will be their assistant hitting coach, his second season on staff. Bill Murphy and Josh Miller will split pitching coach duties for the second straight year. Gary Pettis and Omar López will serve as base coaches, with Dan Firova and Michael Collins also remaining on staff.
There’s a strong amount of continuity with the group, as they return in hopes of backing up their championship. Houston made some key front office changes at the start of the offseason, but the non-playing field staff is back completely intact with the addition of Kawamura.