Giants Notes: Correa, Wade, Belt, Jackson
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with the media yesterday and addressed a wide array of topics. In addition to downplaying the club’s need for catching help, he touched on a few of the team’s free agent decisions.
Nothing has loomed larger for the organization over the past few weeks than the deal with Carlos Correa that fell through. Correa’s camp quickly pivoted to the Mets after the Giants expressed concerns about the star shortstop’s physical and backed out of their $350MM agreement. Of course, New York’s doctors expressed similar concerns and Correa’s $315MM deal with the Mets also fell apart.
Zaidi indicated that San Francisco briefly touched base with Correa’s camp after his physical with the Mets was flagged (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The Giants’ baseball ops leader indicated Correa wasn’t much interested in reopening discussions with San Francisco at the time, saying that Correa’s group “had other things they were more focused on.” Zaidi had expressed something similar a couple weeks back, indicating the team was unlikely to get deeply involved again with the Boras Corporation then focused on hammering out a deal with the Mets. That never came to fruition and Correa eventually returned to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee.
While the Giants’ offseason is in large part defined by near-misses on Aaron Judge and Correa, San Francisco certainly wasn’t inactive. They came up short on the star player they’d been seeking but brought in a number of quality regulars and role players. That was especially true in the outfield, where Joc Pederson returned via the qualifying offer and Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto signed multi-year free agent deals.
That solidified the outfield, with Haniger and Conforto expected to flank Mike Yastrzemski or Austin Slater on most days. Pederson will be the primary designated hitter if everyone’s healthy. LaMonte Wade Jr. has gotten a decent amount of corner outfield run over the past couple seasons but now looks set to man first base, at least as the strong side of a platoon arrangement.
Wade, a left-handed hitter, owns a .235/.318/.434 line over 632 plate appearances since the Giants acquired him from the Twins over the 2020-21 offseason. He’s been dreadful in 75 looks against left-handed pitching (.119/.178/.149) but has a quality .251/.336/.473 line with 26 home runs and 22 doubles in 557 trips while holding the platoon advantage. That makes him a logical partner for right-handed hitters like Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis and David Villar, each of whom could rotate through the corner infield.
A desire to lean on Wade at first base played into San Francisco’s decision to watch Brandon Belt join the Blue Jays in free agency, Zaidi indicted (Pavlovic link). Zaidi suggested the team stayed in touch with Belt but didn’t specify whether the club made an official offer. After parts of 12 seasons in San Francisco, the veteran first baseman joined the Jays on a $9.3MM deal earlier this week.
One free agent whom San Francisco did sign is reliever Luke Jackson. The longtime Braves righty didn’t pitch in 2022 thanks to an April Tommy John surgery. It marked a rough platform year but San Francisco still added him on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee. With the typical Tommy John rehab taking roughly 14 months, Jackson isn’t expected to be ready for the start of next season. Zaidi acknowledged he might open the year on the 60-day injured list, which would keep him out of action until at least late May (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). That’s not suggestive of any kind of setback, as Zaidi said Jackson is “doing great in his rehab.”
Mets Interested In Tommy Pham
The Mets’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder continues. They were connected earlier this week to Andrew McCutchen, though he agreed to terms with the Pirates earlier today. The Mets have also had reported interest in Adam Duvall and Trey Mancini, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Tommy Pham is another name they are now considering.
Pham, 35, was drafted by the Cardinals in 2006 but didn’t truly breakout as a major leaguer until over a decade later. In 2017, when Pham was 29, he hit 23 home runs and stole 25 bases. He also drew walks at a healthy 13.4% clip, leading to an overall batting line of .306/.411/.520. That production was 49% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Pham was worth 6.3 wins above replacement that year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.
Pham would continue putting up really good numbers for a few more years with the Cardinals and Rays, but there’s been dip over the past few seasons. He was with the Padres for 2020 and 2021 but hit just .226/.335/.370 over those seasons for a wRC+ of 98, indicating he was 2% below league average. He reached free agency and signed with the Reds for 2022, later going to the Red Sox in a deadline deal. He finished the year with a combined batting line of .236/.312/.374 between the two clubs, good enough for a wRC+ of 89. His walk rate, which was in the 13% range for much of his prime, slipped to 9%. Most fans probably remember his fantasy football-related slap of Joc Pederson more than anything Pham did in a game last year.
Despite those recent struggles, there could be a case for Pham to carve out a part-time role on a strong Mets’ roster. The regular outfield is already set, with Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha and Starling Marte in the three full-time jobs. The left-handed swinging Daniel Vogelbach seems to be lined up to get the bulk of the time at designated hitter, with the right-handed Darin Ruf on hand to potentially serve as a fourth outfielder and spell Vogelbach against lefties. However, Ruf hit just .152/.216/.197 after coming over to the Mets in a trade with the Giants last year, and the club probably wants to find another option that gives them some more confidence.
Pham has hit lefties better in his career, producing a 132 wRC+ against them but a 110 against righties. That still carried into 2022, as he limped to an 81 wRC+ against righties but produced a 115 figure versus southpaws. Though he’s no longer a threat to steal 25 bases, he did swipe eight last year. Statcast also thinks the tools are still in there, with Pham ranking in the 93rd percentile in terms of exit velocity, 86th in maximum exit velocity, 89th in hard hit rate, 74th in arm strength and 66th in sprint speed.
It seems as though the Mets are focused on adding a right-handed hitting outfielder as their next move, having been connected to McCutchen, Duvall, Mancini and Pham in recent days. The free agent market also features Brian Anderson as well as switch-hitters Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar.
Dodgers, Julio Urias Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers are in agreement with starter Julio Urías on a $14.25MM salary for the 2023 season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The sides avoid a hearing for the left-hander’s final season of arbitration eligibility.
Urías has emerged as one of the game’s top pitchers. He’s somehow never made an All-Star team but finished in the top ten in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the last two seasons, including a third-place finish in 2022. The Mexico native led the National League with a 2.16 ERA across 175 innings, his second straight sub-3.00 campaign. Since firmly establishing himself in the Los Angeles rotation in 2020, he carries a 2.66 ERA and has held opponents to a .210/.262/.345 line over 415 2/3 frames.
Once regarded as the sport’s top pitching prospect, Urías was in the majors before his 20th birthday. He’s still just 26 years old but has already crossed the five-year service threshold. Barring an extension, he’ll be a free agent next offseason. If he has another season like either of his past two, he’d be the top starting pitcher available on the open market (aside from two-way star Shohei Ohtani). Given his youth and production, Urías could plausibly eclipse the $200MM mark next winter.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Urías for a $13.7MM salary for his final arbitration year. His actual deal comes in a bit above that mark, representing a notable raise on last season’s $8MM figure.
Twins Sign Ryan LaMarre, Chance Sisco, Grayson Greiner To Minor League Deals
The Twins announced a slate of non-roster invitees to Major League Spring Training on Friday, with new additions including outfielder Ryan LaMarre, catchers Chance Sisco and Grayson Greiner, and righty Brock Stewart.
LaMarre, 34, has appeared in parts of six big league seasons, including a 14-game stint with the Twins back in 2019. He’s been a reserve outfielder for most of that time, hitting .232/.286/.350 over the life of 270 Major League plate appearances. Most recently, LaMarre had a strong showing with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate in 2022, batting .297/.409/.458 in 186 plate appearances. That was a continuation of a lengthy track record of strong performance at the top minor league level, as LaMarre is now a career .282/.359/.432 hitter in parts of nine Triple-A seasons.
The Twins are deep in left-handed-hitting outfielders but are lacking in righty-swinging options such as LaMarre — particularly after this week’s DFA of Kyle Garlick. Center fielder Byron Buxton and backup outfielder Gilberto Celestino are the only right-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man roster, while Minnesota has five lefty-hitting outfielders in the form of Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and offseason signee Joey Gallo. LaMarre will give the Twins a potential right-handed-hitting option off the bench to complement that group.
Sisco, 28 next month, returns for a second straight season in the Twins organization. He’ll join recently signed veteran Tony Wolters to give the organization some experienced catching options in Triple-A. Sisco signed a minor league deal with the Twins last offseason and began the year in St. Paul, but a knee injury sustained in late April wound up limiting him to only 10 games, during which he batted .194/.297/.355 in 37 plate appearances.
Sisco once rated as one of the top catching prospects in baseball but, with the exception of a brilliant 10-game debut late in the 2017 season (.333/.455/.778), Sisco hasn’t had much extended success at the plate. He’s a career .197/.317/.337 hitter in 608 big league plate appearances but has a more solid .253/.343/.418 batting line in 964 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
Greiner spent several seasons with the division-rival Tigers but was with the D-backs organization in 2022. The 30-year-old is a career .201/.275/.307 hitter in the Majors (485 plate appearances). A third-round pick in 2014, Greiner has a career .233/.315/.360 line in Triple-A and will give the Twins some further catching depth.
Stewart, 31, hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2019. He’s tallied 105 2/3 innings at the big league level but struggled to a 6.05 ERA. Like Sisco, he was with the Twins in 2022 but hampered by injuries, which limited him to only 14 minor league innings. Coincidentally, he and fellow Twins non-roster invitee Jose De Leon were both once well-regarded pitching prospects in the Dodgers organization. The Twins reportedly targeted both De Leon and Stewart when discussing a trade of Brian Dozier with the Dodgers in the 2016-17 offseason. That deal never came to fruition, but Dozier wound up going to the Dodgers in a midseason trade a year and a half later.
Twins Outright Blayne Enlow
The Twins announced to reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that right-hander Blayne Enlow cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Double-A. He had been designated for assignment last week when the club claimed Oliver Ortega off waivers from the Angels.
Enlow, 24 in March, he was selected by the Twins in the third round of the 2017 draft. He quickly jumped into the top 10 among the club’s prospects in the eyes of Baseball America, coming in at #9 on the 2018 list. He continued performing well for the next couple of years but has had his development stalled recently. The pandemic took out his 2020 and Tommy John surgery wiped out the subsequent campaign after just three starts.
Despite the two frustrating years, the Twins still believed in Enlow enough that they added him to their roster in November of 2021, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He got back on the hill last year and tossed 57 1/3 innings at the Double-A level with a 4.40 ERA, striking out 24.8% of batters faced while walking 11.6% of them.
Despite Enlow’s prospect pedigree, the other 29 clubs have taken a pass on him and he will stick with the Twins, giving them some pitching depth that won’t require a spot on the 40-man roster.
Brett Martin To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Rangers reliever Brett Martin will undergo shoulder surgery, as first reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). A specific timeline will become clearer after the operation but Grant writes he’s likely to miss most of the 2023 campaign.
It’s an unfortunate development for the left-hander, who ended last year on the injured list thanks to a shoulder strain. While it seemed he and the club were hopeful the issue would subside with a non-surgical treatment plan, that won’t wind up being the case. Levi Weaver of the Athletic tweets that Martin’s surgery is scheduled for next week.
The 27-year-old has pitched for Texas in each of the past four seasons. He’s been one of their more trusted southpaws for the past two years, combining for a 3.61 ERA through 112 1/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. He posted a 4.14 mark over 55 appearances last season. Martin only struck out 18.9% of opponents but kept the ball on the ground at a quality 50.7% clip. He held same-handed hitters to a .194/.242/.290 line over 67 plate appearances.
Despite the injury, Martin and the club agreed to a $1.275MM contract for the upcoming season. That buys out his first of three would-be arbitration years, and he remains under club control through the 2025 campaign. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, eligible players who avoid a hearing with an arbitration settlement are entitled to full termination pay if released. In previous years, teams could cut players before Opening Day and only owe a portion of the agreed-upon salary. Texas’ outlay in this case is rather modest but suggests the front office still has faith in Martin to bounce back after his rehab and contribute, either down the stretch or in future seasons.
With Martin likely out for an extended period, Texas is dealt a hit to their lefty relief depth. Brock Burke somewhat quietly posted a 1.97 ERA over 82 1/3 innings as a rookie last season, earning himself a high-leverage role in the process. Former highly-regarded prospect Taylor Hearn has been hit around as a starter but posted a 3.51 ERA while limiting opponents to a .208/.276/.318 line over 41 innings of relief. John King is a similar low-strikeout grounder specialist to Martin and a generally solid matchup option.
The Rangers could consider that trio a strong enough group to handle the workload for new skipper Bruce Bochy, even with Martin injured and Matt Moore hitting free agency. Moore is still unsigned, as are Andrew Chafin and Will Smith. That provides some potential options for GM Chris Young and his front office if they’re interested in further adding to the bullpen.
Brewers, Brandon Woodruff Avoid Arbitration
The Brewers are in agreement with star hurler Brandon Woodruff on a $10.8MM deal to avoid arbitration, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). They’ll avoid a hearing in the third of four trips through the process for Woodruff, who first qualified as a Super Two player during the 2020-21 offseason.
A former 11th-round pick, Woodruff has broken out as one of the game’s best starters. He’s a two-time All-Star who hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.05 in any of the past three seasons. Woodruff struck out 30.6% of opponents over 27 starts last season, with a three-week absence due to a high ankle sprain the only black mark on his year.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Woodruff for an $11MM salary. His deal comes up in a tick below that but not meaningfully so, and he’s set up well for another raise in 2024. He’ll reach free agency for the first time at the end of the ’24 campaign, when he’d be headed into his age-32 season.
There’s been a fair bit of speculation about the possibility of Milwaukee making Woodruff or ace Corbin Burnes available in trade talks at some point. The Brewers typically run player payrolls a bit lower than average and have shown a general willingness to listen to trade offers on star players in their arbitration seasons. That doesn’t seem to be a consideration this offseason, as Milwaukee has reportedly taken Burnes, Woodruff and Willy Adames off the table in talks this winter.
White Sox, Lucas Giolito Avoid Arbitration
The White Sox and right-hander Lucas Giolito have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.4MM deal, per Robert Murray of FanSided.
Giolito, 28, was a 16th overall pick of the Nationals and highly-touted prospect in his time there. He struggled a bit in his 2016 major league debut, though he was only in his age-21 season. Nonetheless, the Nats flipped him to Chicago as part of the Adam Eaton trade.
He continued to struggle to establish himself at the big league level over the next couple of seasons but broke out in 2019. He made 29 starts that season and posted a 3.41 ERA. He struck out 32.3% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them. His 5.2 wins above replacement that year, per FanGraphs, placed him in the top 10 of all pitchers. He would go on to post similar results in 2020 and 2021 as the Sox qualified for consecutive trips to the postseason for the first time in franchise history.
2022 was a down season, however, as Giolito’s strikeout rate fell to 25.4%. That was still above league average but a big drop from his previous career work. That pushed his ERA up to 4.90 for the season. That coincided with a disappointing year for the club as well, with both Giolito and the Sox looking to bounce back here in 2023. It will be his final season before he’s slated to reach free agency.
Based on his strong work earlier in his career, Giolito pushed his salary to $4.15MM in 2021, his first time qualifying for arbitration. He pushed that up to $7.45MM last year and now gets to $10.4MM, just shy of the $10.8MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Padres Avoid Arbitration With Juan Soto, Josh Hader
The Padres have avoided arbitration with two stars. San Diego and Juan Soto agreed to a $23MM contract, while they inked Josh Hader to a $14.1MM deal.
Aside from Shohei Ohtani — who agreed to a $30MM deal with the Angels at the end of last season — Soto is the highest-profile player in this year’s arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for the highest salary of any arb-eligible player, forecasting him to land at $21.5MM. Soto comes in a bit above that and secures a little more than a $6MM raise on last season’s $17.1MM salary.
Acquired from Washington in one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history, Soto posted a .236/.388/.390 line through his first 228 plate appearances with the Friars. That was below his usual otherworldly standards but still excellent output thanks to a massive 19.3% walk percentage and just a 14.9% strikeout rate. Including his first-half numbers in Washington, he hit .242/.401/.452 with 27 homers over 664 plate appearances.
The Friars will be able to control Soto for one additional season before he’d hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s on track to reach the open market in advance of his age-26 season and trending towards a potential record-setting deal. San Diego surely has interest in working out a long-term agreement with the Boras Corporation client. Soto declined a 15-year, $440MM extension offer from Washington before being traded, ostensibly setting the floor in any negotiations with the Friars.
Hader landed with the Padres in a massive deadline deal as well. Acquired from the Brewers in a surprising swap, he struggled to a 7.31 ERA through his first 16 innings in San Diego. A spike in walks played a role in those anomalous struggles, though Hader was also plagued by an unsustainably high .372 batting average on balls in play against him. He’d only managed a 4.24 ERA over 34 innings with Milwaukee before the trade but struck out an eye-popping 41.8% of his opponents for the Brew Crew.
The lanky southpaw has an established multi-year track record as one of the sport’s most dominant late-game arms. He owns a career 2.71 ERA with a 43.2% strikeout percentage over 332 1/3 big league innings. Hader has collected 132 saves along the way and been selected to the All-Star Game four times. He’s rewarded with one of the largest arbitration deals of the winter himself, narrowly topping his $13.6MM projection.
With over five years of MLB service, Hader avoids arbitration for the final time. He’s on track to hit free agency next winter, when he’ll be headed into his age-30 season. With a typically dominant showing in 2023, Hader would have a chance at topping the reliever record $102MM free agent contract signed by Edwin Díaz this offseason.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Soto agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Hader deal.
Phillies, Rhys Hoskins Avoid Arbitration
The Phillies and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12MM contract for 2023, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.
Hoskins, 30 in March, has spent his entire career with the Phillies so far, having been drafted by them in 2014. He is now on the cusp of free agency, however, as this is his final season of club control. During 2023, he will cross six years of service time and qualify for the open market at season’s end.
Since his debut in 2017, he’s established himself as a reliably above-average hitter. He’s hit at least 27 home runs in each season, outside of 10 in the shortened 2020 campaign and 18 in his 50-game debut in 2017. Apart from that debut, his wRC+ has been between 112 and 139 in each season. He has 148 career homers and a batting line of .242/.353/.492 for a wRC+ of 125. He isn’t considered to be an especially strong defender or baserunner, which was kept his wins above replacement from ever topping 2.4, per FanGraphs, but he’s also never been below 2.0 in a full campaign thanks to his reliable offense.
That potent bat pushed his salary up to $4.8MM in 2021, his first time qualifying for arbitration. He got to $7.7MM last year and now $12MM this year, just below the $12.6MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. The Phillies finally cracked the postseason last year, breaking a decade-long drought and going all the way to the World Series. They have been aggressive in reloading to try to get back there in 2023, with Hoskins likely to be a key part of that in his final season before he’s set to reach the open market. He and the club could always reach an extension that keeps him in Philly beyond the upcoming campaign, but they also have other first base/designated hitter types, such as Darick Hall, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.