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Tigers Outright Drew Carlton

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The Tigers have announced that right-hander Drew Carlton has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Toledo. Carlton had been designated for assignment last week.

Carlton, 26, has seen sporadic MLB action over the past couple of seasons, throwing 3 2/3 innings out of Detroit’s bullpen last year and another 8 2/3 frames this year. He has a tidy 2.92 ERA in that small sample, but with a mediocre 15.7% strikeout rate along with average-ish walk and ground ball rates of 7.8% and 39.5%, respectively.

Carlton’s numbers at Triple-A this year are more concerning, however. Despite a 2.92 ERA with the Mud Hens last year, he has a 6.91 mark here in 2022. Despite solid strikeout and walk rates of 24.2% and 4.8%, respectively, he seems to have been undone by a .341 BABIP and 54.5% strand rate, both of which are much worse than the typical averages.

This is Carlton’s second outright of his career, meaning he has the right to reject the assignment and elect free agency. However, it’s not yet clear if he has made a decision in that regard. If he does decide to test the open market, he could still garner interest from teams, most likely on a minor league deal, given that he just cleared waivers. He still has options and is fairly young. If any team were willing to chalk up his poor Triple-A performance to bad luck, they could see the value in adding him as a depth option that doesn’t require a roster spot.

Diamondbacks, Druw Jones Agree To Terms

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The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with their first-round pick from this year’s draft, Druw Jones, per New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Heyman reports that Jones will take home a bonus of $8.1851MM, which is the exact listed slot value for the second overall pick. However, Jim Callis of MLB.com relays that the slot values were changed just a few days before the draft and that Jones will actually get a bonus of $8.1894MM, which is the new slot value.

Jones, 18, was selected out of Wesleyan High School in Norcross, Georgia. He is a center fielder just like his father, long-time Braves outfielder Andruw Jones. Despite his young age, Jones has been long mentioned as one of the best players available in this draft class, both because of his name-brand pedigree and his incredible talents on the field.

Baseball America ranked him the best player in the draft, giving him grades of 55 or higher on the 20-80 scouting scale in each of the five categories for position players (60 hit, 55 power, 70 run, 70 field and 65 arm). Jones also took the top spot in the rankings at FanGraphs, The Athletic, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Despite that unanimous praise as the top player available, the Orioles decided to use the first pick of the draft on Jackson Holliday, another second-generation player, the son of Matt Holliday. That allowed the Diamondbacks to select Jones with the second pick of the draft.

Jones had committed to join Vanderbilt but it seems he will forgo that commitment to jump into the Diamondbacks system, giving them an enviable bumper crop of exciting young outfielders. Though he is still quite young and it would be unfair to expect him, or any prospect, to shoot up the minor league ladder with speed, the D-Backs and their fans will surely be dreaming of seeing Jones in their future outfield mix next to the recently-promoted Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll, who recently made the jump to Triple-A and is widely considered to be one of the best prospects in the sport.

Giants, Andrew Knapp Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent catcher Andrew Knapp, MLBTR has confirmed. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted last night that the Giants “might be” adding Knapp and sending him to Triple-A Sacramento.

This will be the fourth organization of the year for Knapp, who was in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee with the Reds but exercised an out in his deal in order to sign a Major League contract with the Pirates. Pittsburgh designated Knapp for assignment in mid-May, after which he elected free agency and inked a minor league deal with the Mariners. Seattle selected Knapp to the big league roster late last month and then designated him for assignment two weeks later. Knapp again rejected an outright in favor of a return to the market, and he’ll now head to the Giants’ top affiliate in Sacramento.

Knapp, 30, is plenty familiar with Giants skipper Gabe Kapler, dating back to the pair’s days together in Philadelphia. The Phillies selected Knapp with the No. 53 overall draft pick back in 2013, and he went on to spend parts of five seasons as their backup catcher (two of which were under Kapler, in 2018-19). The switch-hitting Knapp appeared in 309 games over that half-decade run in Philly, batting a combined .214/.314/.322 through 827 trips to the plate. He’s hitting just .114/.205/.143 this year, but that’s in a minuscule sample of 39 plate appearances. He’s also spent parts of four seasons in Triple-A, where he’s a .252/.322/.389 hitter.

Catching depth became an unexpected area of need for the Giants when Buster Posey abruptly retired on the heels of last year’s sensational rebound campaign. Posey’s age-34 season saw the former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP turn the clock back with a .304/.390/.499 batting line — his most-productive season since 2014. Posey’s decision to retire on a high note prompted the Giants to turn things over to former No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart, but Bart has yet to fully find his stride in the Majors.

The 25-year-old Bart is hitting just .185/.307/.361 this season, although he recently returned from a June demotion to Sacramento and showed some improvement in 32 plate appearances leading into the All-Star break. Curt Casali, Austin Wynns, Michael Papierski an Yermin Mercedes have seen time behind the plate as well (just one inning in Mercedes’ case). On the whole, Giants catchers are hitting just .203/.303/.355 in 2022.

With Casali on the injured list due to an oblique strain, Papierski now in Cincinnati following a waiver claim, and Mercedes being more an option at first base/DH than at catcher, the Giants are light on healthy, experienced catchers. Bart and Wynns figure to continue handling the bulk of the workload for now, but Knapp will give them some additional cover in the event of further injuries.

Ender Inciarte Elects Free Agency

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Veteran outfielder Ender Inciarte, whom the Mets designated for assignment last week, rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency, per Minor League Baseball’s transactions log. Inciarte, who began the season on a minor league deal with the Yankees, signed with the Mets shortly after being cut loose in the Bronx. He was in the Majors a week later but tallied only eight plate appearances over 11 games, functioning primarily as a late-inning option off the bench for Mets skipper Buck Showalter.

It’s quite a different place than Inciarte found himself just five years ago, when he was representing the Braves as an All-Star at this point in the summer. That year saw Inciarte bat .300 for the second time in three seasons and take home the second of what would be three consecutive Gold Glove Awards. A standout table-setter and all-world defender at that point in his career, Inciarte batted .300/.347/.401 with 20 homers, 78 doubles, 17 triples and 59 stolen bases in 420 games/1857 plate appearances from 2015-17.

Inciarte looked like a core piece for the Braves, who rewarded him with a five-year, $30.525MM extension in December of 2016. He won his second and third Gold Gloves in the contract’s first two seasons and also smacked 21 homers with 50 stolen bases, generally making the deal look like a wise investment.

A back strain cost him more than two months of the 2019 season, however, and he injured his hamstring not long after returning from that first lengthy stay on the injured list. He posted respectable but diminished numbers at the plate that season, but Inciarte’s bat completely cratered in 2020 and hasn’t yet rebounded. He’s turned in just a .197/.262/.271 slash line since Opening Day 2020, and while that’s a small sample of 228 plate appearances, Inciarte hasn’t fared well in Triple-A, either. He’s also dealt with further hamstring issues along the way.

A team needing some defense in center field and/or some speed off the bench could take a look at Inciarte, but it seems likelier he’ll find a new organization on a minor league contract after the All-Star break. At 31 years old, it’s possible Inciarte could get healthy and reemerge as a viable big league outfielder. He still has average or better defensive ratings dating back to 2019, but they don’t stack up with the elite rates he posted prior to the back and hamstring injuries that began in that 2019 campaign.

A Cheap And Controllable Catcher That Could Be Available At The Deadline

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On MLBTR’s recent list of trade candidates, the top name was a catcher, Willson Contreras. There are lots of reasons to expect he will be moved in the coming weeks, as he’s an impending free agent who is playing well for a bad team. There’s always the chance of the Cubs working out an extension to keep him, but based on the way Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo were all dealt last year, it seems reasonable to expect that Contreras is following them out of town.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at the potential fits, finding the Astros, Mets, Rays and Giants as the most likely, though listing plenty of other teams that make sense to some degree. Only one of them will get Contreras, however, leaving those other teams with issues behind the plate and having to consider other options. The only other catcher to crack MLBTR’s list was down at #41: Sean Murphy of the Athletics.

Though Contreras and Murphy are both catchers, there are many ways in which their situations are different. While Contreras is a rental and earning a $9.625MM salary this year, Murphy has yet to reach arbitration and still has three years of cheap control remaining. Contreras is also considered a bat-first catcher whereas Murphy has generally earned more praise for the defensive side of his game.

There are plenty of reasons for the A’s to hold onto Murphy, which is why he was so much lower on the MLBTR rankings than Contreras. Though the A’s have traded away many core players in the past year, those were guys who had come close to free agency and made themselves more expensive through arbitration. Murphy is still cheap and controllable, not to mention talented. He picked up a Gold Glove award last year for his excellent defense and was considered the third best catcher in the majors by the Fielding Bible Awards voting, behind Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges. He’s also no slouch at the plate, with a career batting line of .229/.316/.423. That amounts to a wRC+ of 108, or 8% above league average. This year, his line is a smidge below that pace, coming in at .241/.308/.409, but that’s still a wRC+ of 106. His walk rate is a bit below his previous levels, but he’s also striking out less. That above-average batting line, when combined with his excellent defense, has allowed him to produce 2.3 wins above replacement on the year already, according to FanGraphs.

So, why even consider trading him then? For one thing, they could surely ask for a haul in return, given all those aforementioned attributes. There’s also the position of the team, who are currently 32-61, the worst record in the American League and ahead of only the Nationals among all teams in the majors. They’re certainly not competitive now and it’s hard to imagine them completely remaking themselves fast enough to suddenly become competitors again in 2023. Even if they feel 2024 is realistic, Murphy will be in his penultimate year of control by then, the same situation that players like Matt Olson and Matt Chapman were in when they were traded this offseason.

There’s also another factor to consider, which is that the A’s have one of the best catching prospects in baseball knocking on the door of the big leagues. Acquired in the Olson trade, Shea Langeliers is considered the #83 prospect in the sport by Baseball America, #52 by FanGraphs, #81 by ESPN, #80 by The Athletic and #31 by MLB Pipeline. Like Murphy, he is considered a glove-first catcher, but still hits at an above-average rate. This year, in 74 Triple-A games, he’s hit 16 home runs, stolen five bases and walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances. His batting line of .272/.364/.505 amounts to a 115 wRC+, or 15% above league average. He recently represented the American League in the 2022 Futures Game, earning MVP honors after hitting a home run and throwing out an attempted base stealer.

Langeliers is now 24 years old, turning 25 in the offseason. If the A’s were able to find an offer on Murphy that they liked, they could pull the trigger on a deal and let Langeliers have the final two months of the season to get acquainted with the big league pitching staff and life in the big leagues generally, going into the offseason with the torch already passed. The A’s reportedly considered dealing Murphy this past offseason, and that was before Langeliers had been acquired.

The club’s catching depth doesn’t stop there, as they also have Tyler Soderstrom in the system. He also shows up on all five of those aforementioned prospect lists, ahead of Langeliers in each case. However, there are some question marks there, as he is still just 20 years old, playing in High-A and predicted to move out from behind the plate down the line. (He’s played more first base than catcher this year.)

For a team looking to add a catcher, Murphy might be more appealing than Contreras due to his extra control. The Guardians, for instance, have Austin Hedges as their primary catcher right now. He is an impending free agent and is hitting just .172/.227/.270 this year. As a team that’s 2 1/2 games back of the Wild Card, they might not want to give up prospects for a rental like Contreras, and might also balk at his salary given their low-payroll ways. Acquiring Murphy, however, would allow them to upgrade on Hedges for a postseason push this year but also three more seasons. The Marlins recently acquired Jacob Stallings to be their backstop, though he’s having a terrible year at the plate and is turning 33 this winter. They’re 5 1/2 games out of the playoffs right now and would likely not be interested in rentals. The Twins recently put Ryan Jeffers on the IL and aren’t expecting him back for a couple of months. That leaves them with impending free agent Gary Sanchez as their primary catcher. Perhaps they’d consider a Sanchez-Murphy tandem now that leads into a Murphy-Jeffers pairing next year. Christian Vazquez is having a nice season for the Red Sox, but both he and backup Kevin Plawecki are heading into free agency in a few months. Acquiring Murphy could spare them worrying about their catching situation in an offseason when they might also lose J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi. They’re also just outside the playoffs right now, two games back, and would surely prefer non-rentals.

Murphy is in a little bit of trade candidate limbo right now, as the same things that make him appealing to other teams will make the A’s want to hang onto him. However, if some team steps up and places a striking offer in front of them, the presence of Langeliers could allow them to stay strong behind the plate while stockpiling talent for other areas of the roster. Given his three remaining years of control, they don’t have to make a trade between now and the August 2 deadline. They could wait until the offseason and take their time looking for the best deal. However, there might be other sellers who join them at that point, such as the Blue Jays, who will have to figure out their logjam of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Zack Collins and Gabriel Moreno. The emergence of William Contreras gives the Braves a future surplus, as they also have Travis d’Arnaud and Manny Pina under contract for next year. (Pina is out for the rest of this year, meaning it’s not an issue now.) Tom Murphy is also done for the year but has one season of team control remaining. Maybe the M’s consider moving him in the winter, as Cal Raleigh has taken over and is having a breakout campaign. There’s lots of uncertainty in that future, but for the next couple of weeks, the A’s have the best and perhaps only non-rental catcher available. Although they don’t have to make a deal in the coming days, it’s possible that it’s actually the best time.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Stephen Strasburg Not Expected To Return This Season

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Stephen Strasburg hasn’t pitched in over a month, and the Nationals transferred him to the 60-day injured list last week. That officially ruled him out until mid-August, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that he’s likely to miss the remainder of the 2022 season dealing with a nerve issue.

It’s not a huge surprise, as the Nats have previously suggested they feared he’s suffered a recurrence of the thoracic outlet syndrome that cut his 2021 campaign short. That necessitated surgery last July, although Heyman writes that Strasburg fortunately will not need to undergo another procedure. Nevertheless, it seems even a non-surgical rehab won’t afford the veteran righty an opportunity to make it back to the mound this year.

It’s the third consecutive lost season for Strasburg, who has been limited to eight appearances since the 2019 campaign wrapped up. He missed most of the abbreviated 2020 season due to carpal tunnel syndrome. After pitching just twice that year, he made five starts before being shut down by TOS last season. Strasburg spent about 11 months working his way back to the big leagues, returning for a 4 2/3-inning against the Marlins on June 9. While he came out of that start feeling fine, he suffered renewed rib discomfort during a bullpen session a few days later.

Injuries to Strasburg are among the reasons the past three seasons have played out disastrously for the Nationals. The three-time All-Star was in peak form in 2019, tossing 209 innings of 3.32 ERA ball during the regular season. He continued to shine during the postseason, helping the Nats to a championship and winning World Series MVP honors. Washington kept him around on a seven-year, $245MM free agent contract the ensuing winter.

While it was easy to understand the Nationals’ desire to keep Strasburg around coming off such an excellent season, that signing looks like an unfortunate major misstep in retrospect. Not only have the injuries generally kept him off the mound, he’s looked nothing like his old self during his limited action. Strasburg averaged north of 94 MPH on his fastball in 2019, but he’s worked in the 90-92 MPH range over the past three years. Coupled with the Max Scherzer trade and Patrick Corbin’s massive performance downturn, the excellent top-end starting pitching that anchored the Nats perennial contenders of the last decade has abandoned them. Washington’s rotation has an MLB-worst 5.74 ERA through the season’s unofficial first half.

Strasburg, 34 on Wednesday, remains under contract for another four years. He’s due $35MM annually through 2026, although a good portion of that salary is deferred with interest.

Frankie Montas To Start For A’s On Thursday

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Frankie Montas will make his return to the mound on Thursday, as the A’s announced him as the scheduled starter for the second game of a doubleheader against the Tigers. It’ll be the righty’s first appearance since he left his July 3 start due to what the team later announced as shoulder inflammation.

Oakland never placed Montas on the injured list, even as he missed more than what would’ve been the 15-day minimum. The injury wound up costing him a couple starts, but that he’ll be back this week is the most important thing for the A’s. Montas is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates, and the July 21 return should position him to take the ball twice or three times before the August 2 deadline.

That’s assuming the A’s hold onto Montas right until the deadline, although there’s little reason for the Oakland front office not to be open to moving him at any point. At 32-61, they’re likely headed for a last place finish in any event. Montas has a season and a half of arbitration-eligibility remaining, and the team’s abysmal first half makes it difficult to envision them contending next season either. With no chance the low-spending club signs Montas to a long-term extension, he’s a virtual lock to be flipped before the deadline assuming he’s healthy. The 29-year-old is apparently ready to retake the mound, and pitching-needy contenders will certainly keep a close eye on the quality of his stuff over his next start or two.

Before the minor shoulder flare-up, Montas was off to a second straight excellent season. Through 17 starts, he owns a 3.26 ERA with an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate. He’s walked only 6.2% of opponents and induced grounders on 47.1% of batted balls. Montas has been above-average at virtually everything, missing bats at a 12.9% clip while averaging north of 96 MPH on his fastball.

Over the next two weeks, a trio of controllable starters figure to generate plenty of headlines. Montas joins the Reds’ Luis Castillo as the top two arms likely to change hands. Castillo’s teammate, Tyler Mahle, is also a decent bet to be traded, although he’s dealing with a shoulder issue of his own. The Reds placed Mahle on the injured list on July 6, but indications are that he’ll join Montas in shortly returning to the rotation coming out of the Break.

The Cubs’ Second All-Star Trade Candidate

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Much of the focus in Wrigleyville over the next two weeks will be on Willson Contreras. That’s perfectly understandable. A career-long member of the organization, Contreras is set to don a Cubs uniform in the All-Star Game for the third (and very likely final) time tomorrow. He’s both one of the few remaining ties to the 2016 World Series-winning team and perhaps the game’s top trade candidate. An impending free agent whom the club hasn’t seemingly made much effort to sign long-term, he’s a virtual lock to be dealt by the August 2 deadline.

Contreras’ trade candidacy is so self-explanatory it has been discussed extensively for months. Yet the future of the other Cub headed to the Midsummer Classic will be equally fascinating to follow. Ian Happ is a first-time All-Star, a deserved National League representative amidst another productive year at the plate. The switch-hitting Happ carries a .274/.364/.443 line across 368 plate appearances through the season’s unofficial first half. By measure of wRC+, that production is 25 percentage points better than league average.

Happ had fared similarly in two of the past three years. He posted respective wRC+ marks of 126 and 130 in 2019 and 2020. Both those showings were in limited playing time, however. Happ spent a good chunk of the former season in Triple-A, where his .242/.364/.432 line was less impressive than his .264/.333/.564 work in a smaller MLB sample. The 2020 campaign, of course, was truncated because of the pandemic. Last year was Happ’s first full season of major league action since 2018, and he put together a .226/.323/.434 showing that was only marginally above average.

With Happ having held onto his 2019-20 rate production over a three-plus month stretch, one could argue he’s already had a career year in 2022. Perhaps even more importantly, the 27-year-old (28 next month) is getting to those results in a manner that appears more sustainable than he has in prior seasons. Happ’s game has featured quite a bit of swing-and-miss throughout his big league career, but he’s made notable strides in that department. He’s made contact on just under 76% of his swings this year. That’s four points higher than he has in any previous season, and he’s pulled just shy of league average in that regard. He’s paired that with a slightly more aggressive approach, particularly with regards to attacking pitches inside the strike zone.

Even slightly below-average bat-to-ball skills is workable for Happ, who does most other things well offensively. He’s always had solid strike zone awareness, and this season’s 11.4% walk rate is right in line with his career mark. That patience has consistently been paired with above-average power, with Happ posting higher than typical rates of hard contact in each of his six big league seasons. Traditionally, Happ’s power impact has skewed towards his time in the left-handed batters box. That hasn’t been the case this year, though, as he’s collected eight extra-base hits in 85 plate appearances as a right-handed hitter.

A switch-hitter with above-average patience and power and serviceable contact skills, Happ’s a well-rounded and valuable offensive player. He’s not elite, but he’s certainly a good hitter who’d upgrade plenty of teams’ corner outfield situations. Happ is miscast in center field (and on the infield, where he’d logged sporadic innings earlier in his career), but he’s a solid defender in left field. Statcast has pegged him as roughly league average at that position, while Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have him a touch above. Left field is far down the defensive spectrum, but Happ’s work at the plate has been plenty sufficient to clear the loftier bar necessary to be a productive regular.

There haven’t yet been substantive reports linking any contenders with Happ, but it stands to reason there have already been clubs in touch with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. The Red Sox, Braves, Twins and Dodgers are among the contenders that have gotten average or worse production out of their left fielders this year. Minnesota and L.A. are currently without their top preferred options (Trevor Larnach and Chris Taylor, respectively) due to injury.

The Blue Jays, Yankees and Padres have gotten solid work from left field but are looking for ways to upgrade their outfields generally. That’s perhaps also true of the Rays, who have Randy Arozarena in left but are expected to be without each of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramírez for the foreseeable future. Other clubs like the Mariners, Mets and Guardians have solutions in left field but could look into adding another productive bat with question marks at designated hitter. That’s a broad range of possibilities Hoyer and his staff should be able to explore if they make Happ available this summer.

How motivated will the Cubs be to deal him? Trading Happ isn’t as urgent as moving Contreras will be. The latter is headed to the open market two months from now, while Happ is controllable for 2023 via arbitration. He’s playing this season on a $6.85MM salary, around $2.7MM of which will remain owed after the deadline. He’s sure to land a decent arbitration raise — likely putting next year’s tally in the $10-12MM range — before his first trip to the open market. That’s not an insignificant sum, but it’s still a strong bargain for a player of his caliber. Accordingly, the return package the Cubs receive for Happ is unlikely to ever be better than it will be this summer, when the club can market two playoff pushes to contenders. He’s young enough the Cubs could kick around extension possibilities, but there’s been no public indication that’s on the table.

One way or another, it feels like the appropriate time for the front office to pick a longer-term course of action regarding the former ninth overall pick. Merely holding onto Happ via arbitration doesn’t align with the club’s contention window. The Cubs may not intend to punt on 2023 entirely, but it’s hard to see a path to competitiveness. The team is 22 games under .500 at this season’s All-Star Break, and there are enough holes both at the bottom of the lineup and in the starting rotation they’re unlikely to be completely plugged in one offseason. 2024 feels like the more realistic target for a return to respectability, and Happ is slated to be a free agent by that point.

Unless the Cubs are particularly confident about the chances of getting a long-term deal done with his representatives at WME Baseball, the front office should actively explore the trade market over the next couple weeks. The possibility of dealing him next offseason means Hoyer and his staff don’t need to simply accept the top offer presented, but this feels like the best opportunity for the Cubs to land a marquee return. Happ’s remaining window of club control probably makes him a more valuable trade asset than Contreras, so dealing him may be the organization’s clearest path towards adding another Top 100-caliber prospect to the farm system.

Seeing Contreras and Happ depart in rapid succession would be disappointing to some members of the fanbase, but the organization’s massive sell-off last summer firmly signified this is the direction they’re headed. Plenty more change will be afoot in the next couple weeks, with a host of relievers and the franchise catcher all but assured to be moved. Happ very well might join that group in departing the North Side for a near-term contender as the Cubs continue to restock the minor leagues as part of an ongoing retooling effort.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Details On Spring Extension Talks Between Red Sox, Rafael Devers

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Prior to the start of the season, the Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers engaged in some extension talks that didn’t yield much progress, as the two sides were reportedly around $100MM apart in their floated prices.  Some more details on the negotiations were shared by The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who reports that the Sox viewed Matt Olson’s extension with the Braves as a possible model for a Devers deal.

Olson signed his eight-year, $168MM extension (with a $20MM club option for 2030) just a day after Atlanta landed the first baseman in a blockbuster trade with the Athletics.  Both Devers and Olson are in the same service-time class, and were under control through the 2023 via a final year of arbitration eligibility.  Back in April, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at Devers through the lens of the Olson extension, but also made the point that “obviously, Olson and Devers don’t make for an apples-to-apples comparison.”

From Boston’s perspective, eight years and $168MM had been established as the market rate for a star first baseman, and Speier writes that the Sox were looking for an extension in that range “citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter.”

There have long been questions about Devers’ long-term viability as a third baseman, as (depending on the defensive metric of choice) his glovework has generally been subpar for his entire career.  This year, Devers has a -6.6 UZR/150, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, and an even 0 in Outs Above Average, indicating some small improvement from his previous numbers.  For what it’s worth, OAA is the metric that has been most favorable to Devers, as his glovework in 2019 received a whopping +17 OAA (with a more modest +2.4 UZR/150 and -5 DRS).

Olson happens to be one of the league’s better defensive first basemen, which undoubtedly also figured into the argument the Red Sox put forth to Devers’ agents at Rep 1 Baseball.  However, it is also pretty easy to understand the counter-arguments that Devers’ camp could make.  Devers is over two and a half years younger than Olson, third base is the more difficult position, and Devers has more upside at the plate.

From 2017-2021, Devers hit .279/.338/.509 with 112 home runs over 2344 plate appearances.  Over that same stretch, Olson hit .254/.348/.515 with 142 homers in 2341 PA, with Olson also playing his home games in the pitcher-friendly Coliseum while Devers hit at Fenway Park.  Of course, Devers also began his MLB career at age 20, and he has already been a significant contributor to a World Series champion.

The 2022 season has done more to enhance Devers’ case for a huge contractual investment.  Devers leads all AL batters with 112 hits at the All-Star break, with 22 homers and a .324/.379/.601 slash line in 377 PA.  A below-average walk rate (a consistent issue for Devers throughout his career) is pretty much the only blemish on an otherwise strong Statcast page, as while Devers’ whiff rate and chase rate are both mediocre, he is in the 70th percentile for strikeout rate — his 18% K% is the second-lowest of his career.  Devers’ 170 wRC+ is the fourth-best of any qualified batter in the league, topped by only Yordan Alvarez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Aaron Judge.

Devers is scheduled to reach free agency in advance of his age-27 season, and this earlier entry to the open market carries the promises of more prime years under contract, and thus a bigger asking price for any interested team.  Devers avoided arbitration with the Sox and is playing the 2022 season on an $11.2MM salary, so it is easy to project that his 2023 arb salary will be in the $16MM range.  Assuming that Boston’s extension offer covered the 2023 campaign and assuming an offer in the neighborhood of Olson’s deal, that would’ve priced Devers’ first seven free agent years (his age-27-33 years) at roughly $152MM.

Beyond trying to find a magic salary number that is acceptable to both sides, the larger question could be whether the Red Sox have interest in locking up Devers at anything that isn’t a semi-bargain price.  On paper, there’s plenty of long-term room in Boston’s payroll for a Devers mega-deal.  A lot of money is coming off the books after the season, with the likes of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Christian Vazquez, Michael Wacha, Enrique Hernandez, Jackie Bradley Jr., and James Paxton all either scheduled for free agency, or potential free agents based on contractual options (such as Bogaerts’ opt-out clause, which he is widely expected to exercise).

Locking up Devers would be a way to reinforce the lineup should some or all of those batters depart, and essentially make him the face of the franchise for the remainder of the decade.  Trevor Story’s six-year, $140MM free agent deal is the largest contract given to any Red Sox player since Chaim Bloom was hired as the organization’s chief baseball officer.  On the extension front, the Sox gave an early-career deal to Garrett Whitlock and short-term extensions to Matt Barnes and Andrew Benintendi, but nothing remotely in the realm of what a Devers extension would cost.  It remains to be seen how Bloom is planning to remodel Boston’s roster during what could be a rather transformative offseason, and of course, there is still plenty of time for further negotiations with Devers before the third baseman hits the open market.

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