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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers made some aggressive moves last offseason, hoping that 2022 could be the year their rebuild would end. Unfortunately, that plan failed in spectacular fashion, leading to a late-season shakeup. General manager Al Avila was fired in August and replaced by Giants general manager Scott Harris, who was given the title of president of baseball operations in Detroit. The franchise will be shifting course under new leadership, though it remains to be seen exactly how that will play out.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2023 commitments: $84.65MM
Total future commitments: $239.625MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Tigers have been in rebuild mode for many years, with their last winning season coming in 2016 and their most recent postseason appearance in 2014. After an encouraging finish in 2021, it was decided that it was time to strike. The club gave out big free agent deals to Javy Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez, smaller deals to Chafin and Michael Pineda, in addition to trading for Barnhart and Meadows. It was hoped that those acquisitions could combine with a core of young players to propel Detroit into competing amidst a weak AL Central.

Unfortunately, the club was bound by Murphy’s law in 2022, with the majority of the lineup underperforming and just about every pitcher getting hurt, significantly in many cases. That led to dismal results and a front office shakeup, with Avila packing his things and Harris moving in. Harris has been on the job less than a month, making it tough to predict exactly what he has planned. But there’s no doubt that the agenda is change, in order to steer the club in a better direction. The first domino has already fallen, with Detroit’s amateur scouting director getting dismissed last week. The Tigers eventually finished 66-96, 11 games behind their record last year.

Barnhart has never been a huge threat at the plate but has always earned strong marks for his defense and framing. With the Tigers planning on running out a fairly young pitching staff, there was sense in installing a glove-first option behind the plate. However, Barnhart took a step back at the plate, even relative to his own standards. After hitting .247/.317/.368 last year in Cincinnati, production that was 20% below league average by measure of wRC+, he dropped to .221/.287/.267 this year for a wRC+ of 63.

With Barnhart’s impending free agency, the Tigers will have the option of pivoting behind the plate. Eric Haase was one of the few Tigers to have a nice season in 2022. He hit 14 home runs and slashed .254/.305/.443 for a wRC+ of 112. He crouched behind the plate in 84 games while also playing some left field and got a cameo at first base. He doesn’t get high grades for his catching work though, as Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -9 this year while FanGraphs’ framing metric gave him a -6.6. Detroit could look to the open market for a defensive-minded backstop to pair with Haase, though it’s possible they already have one in Jake Rogers. Scouts have long praised Rogers’ work while donning the tools of ignorance, though he missed all of this season due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in September of 2021. If the club does decide to seek outside help, it will likely be of the short-term variety since it is hoped that their “catcher of the future” is already present in Dillon Dingler, who spent all of this year at Double-A. His defense is considered stronger than his offense, but he hit .238/.333/.419 for a wRC+ of 107 this year, though with a concerning 31.9% strikeout rate. There’s some potential here, but the Tigers could probably fit a veteran like Roberto Pérez or Austin Hedges into the picture.

First base was supposed to a settled matter by now, as Spencer Torkelson cracked the club’s Opening Day roster. He was considered one of the top prospects in the game at the time and seemed to have a chance at cementing himself there for the long haul. His first taste of the majors didn’t go according to plan, however, as he hit .197/.282/.295 through the middle of July and got optioned back to the minors. A September call-up was a bit more promising and led to a .219/.292/.385 line over the final few weeks of the season. That’s still below average by a bit, amounting to a wRC+ of 95, but an improvement, at least.

At second base, the club got a real mixed bag of a season out of Jonathan Schoop. He had a strong season with the glove, as all defensive metrics liked his work, especially Outs Above Average. Schoop’s 27 OAA this year was the highest of any fielder in the league, well beyond the next-best mark of 20 OAA for Dansby Swanson. However, his offensive production mysteriously cratered. After hitting .270/.315/.454 from 2019 to 2021 for a wRC+ of 106, Schoop produced a dismal batting line of .202/.239/.322 this year for a wRC+ of just 57. He’s under contract for one more season and will surely forego an opt-out possibility.

Next to Schoop on the diamond, Javy Báez was supposed to be the club’s stalwart at shortstop after signing a six-year, $140MM contract this past winter. He had a poor showing in the shortened 2020 campaign but had been great in the previous three full seasons, producing above-average work on both sides of the ball. But in his first year as a Tiger, he hit just .238/.278/.393 for a wRC+ of 90. Advanced defensive metrics were also split on his work, with Báez considered to be below-average by DRS and Ultimate Zone Rating, though he did register 2 OAA. He can opt out of his deal after 2023 but would need to have a huge turnaround in order to even consider exercising it. For the Tigers, they will have to hope for better results than they saw this year.

Continuing the pattern around the diamond, third base was another area of disappointment. Over 2020 and 2021, Jeimer Candelario hit 23 home runs, walked in 10.2% of his plate appearances and hit .278/.356/.458 for a wRC+ of 125. But in 2022, his walk rate dropped all the way down to 6% and he slashed .217/.272/.361, wRC+ of 80. He made $5.8MM this year and has one more pass through arbitration remaining. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Candelario to get a bump to the $7MM range for next year, which would be a hefty commitment for Detroit unless they feel 2022 was an aberration and that Candelario will turn things around next year. This year’s crop of free agent third basemen isn’t great, with Nolan Arenado not a consideration for the Tigers even if he does opt out. Brandon Drury will likely get a multi-year deal somewhere that isn’t Detroit. That leaves veteran utility players like Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson and Donovan Solano as potential replacements if the club moves on from Candelario.

Moving to the outfield, we find a similar pile of frustrating results. Alongside Torkelson, the club’s other much-hyped prospect coming into the season was Riley Greene. He seemed like he had the chance to crack the Opening Day roster just like Torkelson, but he fractured his foot during Spring Training and didn’t make his debut until June. He ended up posting a line of .253/.321/.362 in 93 games for a wRC+ of 98. Greene just turned 22 and still has plenty of time to take another step forward, but looking strictly at 2022, he was just a hair below league average.

Austin Meadows was supposed to have one of the corners spoken for, after coming over from the Rays in a trade for Isaac Paredes and a draft pick. Unfortunately, he ended up missing significant time due to vertigo-like symptoms, COVID-19, Achilles strains and mental health concerns. In the end, he only got into 36 games and hit around a league average level, which is below what he accomplished in Tampa. Robbie Grossman was set to take another slot in the second season of his two-year deal with Detroit. He hit 23 home runs in 2021 and produced a line of .239/.357/.415 for a wRC+ of 116 but then took a big step backward this year. In 83 games with the Tigers, he hit just a pair of long balls and slashed .205/.313/.282 for a wRC+ of 78 before getting flipped to Atlanta at the deadline.

Akil Baddoo was looking to build off a strong debut in 2021 where he hit .259/.330/.436 for a 110 wRC+, but he also swooned this year, hitting .204/.289/.269, wRC+ of 65. Greene, Meadows and Baddoo are all set to be back next year, as will rookie corner outfielder/DH Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter had a breakout season in the minors and hit six homers in his first 31 MLB games late in the year. Still, the Tigers could grab a veteran to bolster the group, given the lack of certainty with anyone in the current mix. Players like Ben Gamel, Corey Dickerson or Tyler Naquin would be logical fits to take some playing time and hopefully turn themselves into deadline trade candidates.

Miguel Cabrera, in his age-39 season, didn’t take the field at all this year, limited to designated hitter duty only. He and Tiger fans got to enjoy him cracking the 3,000 hit club in April, but it was largely uninspiring apart from that. He hit .254/.305/.317 for a wRC+ of just 79, 13 points below his previous career low. He’s still under contract for one more season.

While the lineup was characterized by underperformance across the board, the story of the pitching staff was an unfathomable litany of injuries. Spencer Turnbull required Tommy John surgery late in 2021 and was already expected to miss all of this year. But the Tigers spent big to bring in Eduardo Rodríguez to be a veteran anchor next to exciting youngsters like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and others. However, the Tigers didn’t get a full healthy season from anyone and ended up leaning on veteran journeymen and depth options. 31-year-old Drew Hutchison and his career ERA of 4.89 ended up second on the team in starts with 18, with only Skubal able to edge past that mark at 21.

Rodriguez missed time due to a ribcage sprain and then a personal issue, making only 17 starts on the year. Mize was only able to take the ball twice before hitting the IL and eventually requiring Tommy John. Skubal made 21 starts before requiring flexor tendon surgery. Manning missed significant time with shoulder issues, eventually returning but then was scratched from his final start due to a forearm strain. He finished the year making just 12 starts and he and Skubal are both question marks for the start of next season. Given all those issues, veteran starting pitching would be a sensible target this winter for Detroit. They surely won’t break the bank for Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander, but someone like Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies or Johnny Cueto could eat some innings while the younger guys get healthy.

If there’s one area where 2022 wasn’t a total disaster, it was the bullpen. 10 different relievers pitched 21 innings or more for the Tigers  and each one registered an ERA under 4.00. Almost that entire group could be back next year, as most are controllable via arbitration or have yet to even reach their arb years. The only exceptions are Chafin, who has one year left on his contract but has an opt-out clause, and Michael Fulmer, who was traded to the Twins at the deadline and is an impending free agent.

Fulmer was the only member of the bullpen dealt away at the deadline, but the Tigers could field trade offers on that group again this winter. Joe Jiménez and José Cisnero stand out as particularly logical candidates to be moved with only one season of arbitration-eligibility remaining. Hard-throwing southpaw Gregory Soto and right-hander Alex Lange each have three-plus seasons of remaining control and will be harder to pry away, but they’re the highest value trade candidates in the Detroit bullpen.

Payroll wise, the Tigers aren’t in terrible shape, despite their aggressive offseason one year ago. They ran out an Opening Day figure of $135MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was a big jump from recent seasons but still well shy of their last competitive window, with the club spending around $200MM in 2016 and 2017. There’s only about $85MM committed to next year, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That number doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players, but a handful of that group are non-tender candidates after such a poor campaign. There’s certainly room for more aggressive moves if the club sees an opportunity to make them.

However, a compelling argument could be made that the wisest path forward for Harris is to slowplay things for a year. He can take some time to get to know the organization, figure out what he considers to be its strengths and weaknesses. He can get more clarity on the health situations of their many injured pitchers. They can see if Greene and Torkelson can find another gear now that they’ve gotten their feet wet at the big league level. And they will also have a big chunk of payroll space opening up when Cabrera’s mammoth deal is finally out of the way, leaving Báez and Rodríguez as the only contracts on the books for 2024, assuming Báez doesn’t opt out. We can’t know for sure how Harris will operate since he’s only just gotten the job, but with so much uncertainty all over the roster, it would be surprising if he tried to fix absolutely everything in one offseason. Tiger fans that are still around have already been very patient with this rebuild, but it’s likely they will continue to be tested for another season at least.

15 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the postseason rolls along, players hit minor league free agency daily. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

MLBTR covered 34 players who qualified for minor league free agency last week. We’ll periodically provide updates as plenty more hit the open market, as reflected on the MiLB.com transactions log.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Latest On Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning

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Oct 13: In a separate piece, Petzold writes that both Manning and the Tigers are optimistic that surgery will not be necessary to address the righty’s forearm issue.

Oct 12: One of the stories of the Tigers dismal 2022 season was the number of injuries they were forced to endure on the pitching staff. Detroit lost all five members of its season-opening rotation at some point along the way, including a pair of arm surgeries for arguably their top two young arms.

Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June, the culmination of a few months battling elbow troubles. Two months later, Tarik Skubal had to go under the knife himself. His was a flexor tendon repair in his forearm, a disheartening end to what had been shaping up as a breakout campaign. The Tigers didn’t provide more details about a potential recovery timeline, only announcing that he’d miss the remainder of the 2022 season.

It still isn’t clear when Skubal can expect to a return to a big league mound, but he recently updated Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press on his status. The southpaw tells Petzold he’s currently building arm strength in physical therapy and has a follow-up meeting with his surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, in December. Skubal indicated he hopes he’ll be able to begin a throwing program by January if all goes well. While he declined to specify any sort of timeline for game action, he confirmed he’s likely to pitch at some point during the 2023 season.

It seems questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, however. That’s hardly a surprise, as flexor repairs are a notable procedure in their own right. Former Tiger southpaw Matthew Boyd underwent a flexor repair last September; he didn’t return from the injured list until 11 months later. Danny Duffy had the procedure in October 2021 and has missed the entire 2022 season after suffering a setback in August. That’s not to say Skubal is certain to face the same recovery timetable, but it’s illustrative of the fact that rehabbing from these procedures is no simple matter.

Nevertheless, the 25-year-old Skubal took a generally optimistic attitude towards the flexor repair, calling it “the best-case scenario in terms of all the surgery outcomes.” He tells Petzold he went into the operation not knowing whether he’d need a full Tummy John surgery that’d surely have kept him out for all of 2023. Fortunately, his UCL was intact and didn’t require repair.

Mize and Skubal are two-thirds of what Detroit envisioned being an excellent homegrown rotation. Both are now recovering from major surgeries, and Mize will miss most or all of next year. The third, Matt Manning, was scratched from his final start of the season with what the club called a forearm strain. Manager A.J. Hinch downplayed the issue at the time, saying the team shut him down out of an abundance of caution. However, Petzold now reports that Manning is soon to head for a second opinion with Dr. Keith Meister.

To be clear, there’s no indication that Manning is facing surgery at this point. Doctors may just be keeping a close eye on the highly-touted 24-year-old. Still, Petzold writes it’s possible Manning won’t be healthy for Opening Day (although that by no means appears certain yet). Manning also missed a good chunk of the season with shoulder issues, but he took the ball every fifth day for the season’s final two months before the forearm issue arose.

Ostensible injury question marks for all three of Mize, Skubal and Manning present a major challenge for first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris. Eduardo Rodríguez is a lock for the season-opening starting five. Skubal and Manning would be in the rotation if healthy. Detroit shuttled through a number of arms at the back end this year, but none look to have done enough to force their way into the rotation. Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo have each been prospects of note in the past, but none missed many bats at the big league level. Rony García had serviceable strikeout and walk numbers but a 5.11 ERA as a starter, and he ended the season on the IL with a shoulder problem. Spencer Turnbull will be returning after a season lost to Tommy John surgery.

Even in what’s likely to be a non-competitive 2023 campaign, Harris and his front office group will have to bring in some starting pitchers from outside the organization. There’s already room for one or two veterans to soak up innings, and it seems likely the Tigers will leverage their high offseason waiver priority to take a flier on some depth arms of interest. The need to add rotation options would only become more acute if Skubal and/or Manning aren’t able to open the season in Hinch’s rotation.

Drew Hutchison Elects Free Agency

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The Tigers announced that right-hander Drew Hutchison has cleared waivers and elected free agency. He had been designated for assignment on Tuesday when the club claimed utility man Jermaine Palacios off waivers from the Twins.

Hutchison, 32, was signed to a minor league deal by the Tigers last year and ended up cracking the big league team to toss 21 1/3 innings down the stretch. He was outrighted at the end of the season but impressed the club enough that he was brought back for another season as an emergency depth option.

In 2022, they needed to lean on Hutchison far more than they would have liked, as the rotation was decimated by injuries. Just about every hurler the Tigers trotted out to start a game either got hurt or underperformed. In the end, Hutchison made 18 starts, a figure that placed him second on the team, with only Tarik Skubal’s 21 starts ahead of him.

As far as emergency starters go, Hutchison fared well enough, posting a 4.53 ERA in 105 1/3 innings. His peripherals weren’t as strong, however, as his 14.7% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 40.3% ground ball rate were all worse than league average. Advanced metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA had him closer to 5.00, based on those underlying numbers.

Detroit’s rotation still has many question marks around it, with Casey Mize set to miss most of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Skubal and Matt Manning are also dealing with arm issues and have uncertain timelines going into the winter. Despite bouncing around the league for years, Hutchison has yet to reach six years of MLB service time, meaning the club could have retained him for next year via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Hutchison to make $1.8MM in the arb process, but the club has opted not to go that route.

Hutchison will now be able to get an early start on looking for his next gig. He elected free agency a handful of times this year and always wound up back with the Tigers on a new minor league deal. It’s possible he could follow that pattern again, though the Tigers are under new management now. General manager Al Avila was fired and Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations. With the regime change and the uncertainty around their young starters, they will likely take some time figuring out their plan of attack for 2023.

Red Sox Claim Jake Reed, Designate Eduard Bazardo

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The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Jake Reed off waivers from the Orioles, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com. Fellow righty Eduard Bazardo was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Reed, 30, began the year with the Mets before waiver claims took him to the Dodgers, the Orioles and now the Red Sox, making this his fourth organization of 2022. Between last year and this year, he has a 5.74 ERA in his career, though in a fairly small sample of just 26 2/3 innings. That includes a 19.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate.

He’s generally fared better in the minor leagues and that was the case this year. In 23 1/3 innings on various farms, he put up a 3.09 ERA while striking out 25.5% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. He still has one option year in tact, meaning the Sox can shuffle him between the majors and minors for all of next year as long as Reed continues to hang onto a 40-man roster spot.

For Bazardo, 27, this is the second time this year that the Sox have designated him for assignment. After the first instance in April, he cleared waivers and was outrighted, eventually getting selected back to the roster in September. Between last year and this year, he has 19 1/3 innings of MLB experience with a 2.76 ERA, 18.2% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate. In 57 1/3 innings at Triple-A this year, he put up a 3.45 ERA, striking out 23.5% of batters faced, walking 7.5% of them and getting grounders on 42% of balls in play. He has less than a year of MLB service time and a couple of options left, meaning any team that puts in a claim could keep him around as a depth option for the foreseeable future.

Mets Notes: Nimmo, deGrom, Eppler, Showalter

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Brandon Nimmo is heading into free agency on a high note, having just had arguably the best season of his career. He hit 16 home runs in 151 games and produced an overall batting line of .274/.367/.433. That production was 34% better than the league average hitter, as measured by wRC+. When combined with some strong work in the outfield, he produced 5.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, eclipsing his previous high of 4.8.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently spoke to Scott Boras, who is Nimmo’s agent, with Boras highlighting that this winter’s free agent class is low on impact center fielders and leadoff hitters. Looking at the list of available free agents, Boras has a point. Aaron Judge played some center this year but is primarily a right fielder. Beyond him and Nimmo, the other options are mostly bench/depth types, with the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier perhaps the only thing approaching a plausible regular up the middle.

Sherman compares Nimmo to Starling Marte and the $78MM contract he got from the Mets but opines that Nimmo has a chance to double that. There are certainly reasons to think free agency will be kinder to Nimmo than it was to Marte, with age being a significant separator. Marte was 33 years old at the time his deal was signed, whereas Nimmo won’t turn 30 until March. Given that three-year gap, Nimmo could try to try to push for a lengthier deal than the four years that Marte secured. Marte was coming off a remarkably similar walk year, as he posted a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR in 2021. He didn’t have a qualifying offer attached since he was traded midseason, something Nimmo will be saddled with. But there won’t be a lockout this winter to complicate matters and the CBT barriers have all moved higher since then. Combining those factors with the fact that teams are further removed from pandemic losses and the spending environment might be generally more robust than it was in November of 2021, when Marte was signed.

Whether the Mets will be in the Nimmo sweepstakes remains to be seen, but there is an argument to be made for them letting him walk. They could theoretically slide Marte over to center field and focus their resources on a pitching staff that is set for a huge amount of turnover. The Mets have about a dozen hurlers who could reach the open market in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of some options and opt-outs. Of course, the biggest elephant in the room is Jacob deGrom, who has the ability to opt out of the remainder of his contract in a few weeks. deGrom has been clear about his intention to trigger that opt out, even while he was dealing with the uncertainty of his injured shoulder earlier this year.

Once he reaches free agency, his market will be a difficult one to predict. He has been one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy but hasn’t managed a full season since 2019. The pandemic limited him to just 12 starts in 2020 and then injuries kept him at 15 starts last year and 11 here in 2022. He’s still been excellent when on the mound though, posting a 2.05 ERA over 224 1/3 innings in that three-year stretch, along with a 42.1% ground ball rate, 42.4% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate.

Given his excellent quality but diminished quantity in recent years, there is likely to be a wide variance in how different teams will value his potential contributions going forward. For his part, it’s possible that deGrom isn’t particularly focused on strictly maximizing his earnings, with Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic reporting that the righty will also be looking for comfort, preferring to be closer to his Florida home.

It might be difficult for deGrom to get exactly what he wants in that regard, as the two clubs based in his home state aren’t big spenders. The Marlins have been clearing their payroll in the recent past and then focused on adding offense when they finally did make some recent additions. Jorge Soler’s $15MM salary will be the largest contract on the books next year and it would certainly come as a shock to see them more than double that figure to land deGrom, especially when they have so much starting pitching that they are planning to use it to trade for bats. The Rays have never been huge players in free agency and have a massive 19-player arbitration class. That’s likely going to lead them down a path of making tough cuts around the fringes of their roster, even without adding a marquee free agent expenditure.

Moving outside the state, the nearest team to Florida can be found in Atlanta. They have also been the destination of a pitcher with similar geographic preferences, as Charlie Morton continues to re-up with the club in order to be near his own Florida home. deGrom would surely be a welcome addition to any club from a pure baseball perspective, but there are reasons to think Atlanta isn’t a perfect fit. In addition to Morton, the club also has Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider penciled into their rotation for next year. Jake Odorizzi will likely exercise his player option and take a spot at the back end, something the club surely anticipated when they traded for him at the deadline.

Adding deGrom and then trading Odorizzi would be an attractive way to get around the crowded rotation, though that would come with financial complications. Atlanta ran out a franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $178MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, way beyond the previous high of $131MM from the year before. They already have about $154MM committed for next year, without factoring in arbitration raises for players like Fried. Whatever budget they have left over might need to be earmarked for shortstop, since Dansby Swanson is slated for free agency. Even if the club is willing to let Swanson walk and stick with Vaughn Grissom at short, despite Grissom having only 41 games played above Double-A, signing deGrom would require the club to stretch it’s financial comfort zone even farther.

If deGrom considers Texas to be comfortably close to Florida, there would be a sensible fit on the Rangers. The club was very aggressive in free agency a year ago but still had another disappointing campaign in terms of results. They reportedly plan on being aggressive yet again this winter, with a stronger focus on starting pitching this time around. However, the Rangers arguably only have two rotation spots spoken for, with Jon Gray and Dane Dunning the only ones who can be reliably counted on. It might be wiser of them to spread their money around to multiple pitchers as opposed to focusing on one elite arm like deGrom, even if they succeed in re-signing Martín Pérez. It’s also unknown how deGrom’s reported desire to be near his family would be balanced against a natural desire to suit up for a surefire competitor.

Of course, the Mets will surely hope to overcome whatever obstacles come up this winter and bring deGrom back to Queens, but they will also have other matters to attend to. Beyond Nimmo and deGrom, it will be a fascinating offseason for the Mets, as their other free agents or potential free agents are Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Daniel Vogelbach, John Curtiss, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Naquin, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams. It’s anyone’s guess what the roster looks like a few months from now, but it seems there will at least be continuity off the field. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that both manager Buck Showalter and general manager Billy Eppler are secure in their respective jobs. It was the first season with the Mets for both, as Eppler was hired in November of last year and he then brought Showalter aboard during the lockout. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to end the campaign, the Mets still went 101-61, their best record since 1986. They will look to repeat or top that performance in 2023, though the first order of business will be filling the large number of holes on the roster that are about to open.

Injury Notes: Wainwright, Jackson, Zuber

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Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright had a 3.09 ERA through the end of August this year but then posted a 7.22 mark over the final few weeks of the season. Given that he turned 41 years old in between those two samples, some might have wondered if the veteran had merely run out of gas.

However, that wasn’t actually the case, at least according to the man himself. Wainwright logged into Twitter yesterday, acknowledging that he didn’t perform up to his own standards down the stretch and attempting to offer an explanation. The way he tells it, he was hit on the knee by a comebacker in his August 28 start against Atlanta. This affected the length of his stride, which he didn’t notice for some time, leading to domino effects in his delivery. He believes that the issues were eventually fixed but that the season ended before he got a chance to get back into proper form.

Despite the poor finish, Wainwright still posted a 3.71 ERA in 2022, making 32 starts and throwing 191 2/3 innings. Given that his Cardinal teammates Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols already announced their intention to retire after this year, many have wondered if Wainwright would join them in heading into the sunset. But he’s shown he can still be effective at the big league level and could surely get another shot in 2023 if he wants one. If he has made a decision in that regard, he hasn’t yet gone public with it.

Wainwright made his MLB debut with the Cards in 2005 and has been with them his entire big league career. In 2013, he and the club signed a five-year extension that went through the 2018 campaign. Since then, he and the team have effectively gone year to year, signing one-year deals for the past four seasons. He made $17.5MM this year on the heels of an excellent 2021 campaign that he didn’t quite match. He might have to settle for a slight pay cut to return next year, though he and the club have always been able to work out deals that work for both sides.

Jose Quintana is also heading for free agency, leaving the Cards with an on-paper rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. Matz and Flaherty both had injury-plagued seasons and Hudson struggled enough that he got optioned to the minors down the stretch. Given those question marks, reuniting for another spin with Wainwright would make sense for the team, as long as that’s something he wants.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • Braves right-hander Luke Jackson has missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He seems to be on track for a return at some point next year, as the hurler himself took to Twitter to announce that he has started throwing. Now 31, Jackson had a tremendous breakout season in 2021. He threw 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, much better than his 4.24 career mark. There might have been a bit of good luck in there, as opponents hit just .253 on balls in play against Jackson after posting marks at .311 or above in each of the previous five seasons. Nonetheless, he did post strong ground ball and strikeout rates of 52.5% and 26.8%, respectively, alongside a high walk rate of 11.1%. This was his final year of club control, meaning he’ll be heading into the open market in a few weeks. Given his ongoing recovery, he will likely have to hold a showcase for teams at some point in order to showcase his readiness for 2023.
  • Royals righty Tyler Zuber missed the entirety of the 2022 season, landing on the IL in March due to a shoulder impingement and never returning. He appears to be healthy again after tweeting video of himself throwing yesterday. The 27-year-old has yet to find success at the big league level, pitching to a 5.29 ERA in 49 1/3 career innings, though he’s shown more potential in the minors. In 28 2/3 frames at Triple-A in 2021, he posted a 2.83 ERA along with a 37.1% strikeout rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. That also came with a concerning 13.8% walk rate, though he showed an ability to be effective despite that. By sitting on the 60-day IL all season, he’s earned a full year of MLB service time in 2022, though he still won’t reach arbitration eligibility this winter.

Rockies, Hitting Coach Magadan Agree To Part Ways

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The Colorado Rockies announced Thursday morning via Twitter that they have agreed to “mutually part ways” with hitting coach Dave Magadan. Additionally, the Rockies also announced that the rest of their coaching staff, including manager Bud Black, will return for 2023 with the exception of third base/infield coach Stu Cole, who has been reassigned to a minor league staff position.

This news follows a 2022 campaign in which the Rockies endured plenty of offensive struggles. This season, Colorado ranked 10th in total runs scored of any club in the NL (698) and hit the third fewest home runs of any NL team (139), despite playing in one of MLB’s friendliest hitting environments. These figures represent a significant drop from the Rockies’ outputs in 2021 (739 runs, 182 HR’s). Statcast is not kind to Colorado’s offense either, ranking both their 2022 team Barrel% and average exit velocity as the third lowest in the NL. During the four seasons over which Magadan presided over the Rockies’ offense, Colorado’s runs per game, team batting average, and team slugging percentage have all seen consistent, marked declines.

After a notable sixteen-year playing career, Magadan broke into the big leagues as a coach when he joined the Red Sox as their hitting coach in the fall of 2006. Boston made notable improvements at the plate during Magadan’s first season, increasing their team batting average, on-base, and slugging on their way to their 2007 championship. Magadan would continue on to serve as the Red Sox hitting coach until 2012. He then spent 2013-2015 as the hitting coach of the Rangers and 2016-2018 in the same role with the Diamondbacks before he was hired by the Rockies in December of 2018.

Cole has been apart of the Rockies’ organization since 1995. After managing at Colorado’s High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A affiliates, Cole was finally named to the roster of big league coaches in 2012 as the Rockies’ third base coach. As an infield coach, Cole worked with the infielders of a Rockies defense that committed the fifth most errors in all of baseball in 2022.

Though there will be no further changes to the Rockies coaching staff, Magadan’s exit and Cole’s reassignment signal a desire for some changes in leadership in Colorado. If general manager Bill Schmidt and his staff remain intent on contending in 2023, there will need to be broader changes to the roster over the coming months.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals’ 107 losses in 2022 tied the second-highest loss total in the franchise’s 54-year history in Washington and Montreal.  While the club hopes for some improvement next year, it may still be a relatively quiet offseason as the Nats continue their rebuilding path.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Nelson Cruz, DH: $16MM mutual option for 2023 ($3MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With the Lerner family expected to sell the Nationals, the ownership question is certainly the biggest-picture issue hanging over the team’s offseason.  Details about the potential sale have been in relatively short supply, which means that it could still be some time before a buyer emerges, and before the sale is officially approved by the league.

Until a new owner is officially confirmed, the Nats are in something of a limbo, though their direction was already clear even before the Lerners announced their exploration of a sale in April 2022.  The offloading of veteran talent began at the 2021 trade deadline (highlighted by the Nationals’ move of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers), and Washington was again a big seller at the last deadline, with Juan Soto and Josh Bell dealt to the Padres in another headline swap.

Those two blockbusters and a collection of other deals brought a wealth of young talent into the District, to the point that the Nationals hope a good chunk of their next winning core is already in place.  Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, James Wood, Lane Thomas, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Robert Hassell III are all viewed as potential long-term contributors, and the progress of this group (plus other homegrown products like Luis Garcia and Cade Cavalli, among others) in 2023 may help president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo determine the rebuild’s timeline.

During the last two offseasons, Rizzo’s front office targeted veterans on short-term contracts, first in an attempt to return to contention in 2021, and then mostly about filling roster holes last winter.  That strategy is likely to continue this offseason, though it can’t be assumed that the Nationals will only pursue stopgap-esque players.  Even with the arrow directly pointed in the rebuild direction last offseason, the Nats still spent $15MM on a one-year guarantee for Nelson Cruz, as the club was hopeful that Cruz could at least be a trade chip come deadline time.

Unfortunately for Cruz and the Nats, time finally seemed to catch up to the veteran slugger, as Cruz’s .234/.313/.337 slash line over 507 plate appearances resulted in his worst OPS since 2007.  It is possible that Cruz’s upcoming eye surgery will correct the vision problems that certainly contributed to this decline, but the Nats aren’t likely to take the $13MM risk (the cost of exercising their end of Cruz’s mutual option) on Cruz bouncing back at age 42.

It also seems like Washington has its first base/DH situation somewhat settled heading into 2023, so there isn’t an ideal spot for Cruz on the roster.  Luke Voit was the most experienced player who came to the Nationals in the Soto/Bell trade, and though Voit didn’t excel after the deal, his 102 wRC+ (from 22 homers and a .226/.308/.402 over 568 PA) for the entire season was still slightly above the league average.

Voit’s projected $8.2MM arbitration price tag is a little hefty, and it isn’t out of the question that the Nationals might non-tender him in search of a cheaper first baseman/DH type.  Voit was such a productive bat with the Yankees in 2018-20 that even though he has been more average in the last two seasons, the Nats might give him another chance to bounce back and potentially become a July trade chip.

Remarkably, Voit is more of a question mark in next season’s first base/DH mix than Joey Meneses, a longtime journeyman whose career took him to Mexico, Japan, and several stops in the minor leagues.  Signed to a minor league deal by the Nationals last winter, Meneses made his MLB debut on Aug. 2, and then surprisingly took the league by storm.  From Aug. 2 until the end of the season, only 11 qualified hitters in all of baseball topped Meneses’ 156 wRC+, as the 30-year-old hit .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers.

Meneses did benefit from a big .371 BABIP, and 240 plate appearances isn’t a big enough sample size to suddenly tag the 30-year-old as a surefire superstar.  That said, Meneses’ numbers are hard to ignore, and his 47.1% hard-hit rate is a sign that his inflated BABIP wasn’t sheer luck.  His unexpected breakout is already a great story, and from the Nationals’ perspective, there isn’t really any reason not to go with Meneses as the projected Opening Day first baseman.

If Meneses keeps hitting, he could even be a late-blooming addition to the Nationals’ rebuild plans, or perhaps a sneaky-valuable trade chip at the deadline if the Nats wanted to sell high.  Trading Meneses this winter can’t be ruled out, if another team is enamored enough by those 240 PA and Washington gets a good enough offer.  Such a swap would leave the Nats looking for more first base depth, however, and Meneses’ 2022 performance was so strong that the Nationals surely prefer to hang onto him a bit longer to see exactly what they have.

Most of the other infield spots are set, with Ruiz behind the plate, Abrams at shortstop, and Garcia at second base.  Ildemaro Vargas played well over 53 games of infield duty, and the Nats might just retain him at a projected $1.1MM arbitration cost to either serve as the utility infielder, or to take at least a platoon role at third base.

Carter Kieboom missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery, robbing the former top prospect of another opportunity to finally cement himself as a big league regular.  Kieboom has hit only .197/.304/.285 over 414 PA from 2019-21, and while that sample size still isn’t huge, he’s already 25 years old and now coming off a lost year.  The rebuild allows the Nationals some extra patience in giving Kieboom more time, and ideally, he’d return healthy and emerge as the top third base option over the course of the season.  Rizzo has already stated that Kieboom will compete for the job next spring.

If not Kieboom, Vargas is on hand to handle third base, and the Nationals could explore adding another multi-position veteran for further depth in both the infield and perhaps the outfield.  Jace Peterson, Donovan Solano, or old friend Josh Harrison could be options for this role on the free-agent market, and similarly lower-cost players could also be fits for D.C. in trade talks.  Re-signing Cesar Hernandez is a possibility, though he didn’t hit much in his first year with Washington.

Thomas is basically the only player assured of regular playing time in the outfield, though Thomas’ first full year in the District saw him deliver only a 96 wRC+ (.241/.301/.404 in 548 PA).  Meneses played some right field and could also be a factor on the grass, though defensive metrics suggest that Meneses is much better suited to a first-base role.  Late-season waiver claim Alex Call played well enough that the Nats will likely give him another look in a part-time role, and the Nats might simply just again pair Call and Yadiel Hernandez together as a left-field platoon.  Thomas’ ability to play center or right field gives Washington some flexibility in determining how they’ll address the other outfield spot.

This could include parting ways with former top prospect Victor Robles, who struggled at the plate for the third consecutive season.  Robles at least had an excellent defensive year, and at the cost of a projected $2.5MM arbitration salary, the Nationals might deem that an acceptable number for a plus glove in center field.  Robles’ defensive prowess would give the Nats something to market in trade talks before they consider a non-tender, and Robles’ prospect pedigree might interest a team who could view him as a change-of-scenery candidate.

Even if Robles was retained, the outfield still looks like a possible landing spot for a veteran hitter on a one-year deal, with any of Robles, Hernandez, or Call relegated to backup duty.  Again with an eye towards trading this player at the deadline, Washington could be a fit for such free agents as Michael Brantley, Tommy Pham, or Corey Dickerson.  Since the Nationals had the worst record in baseball, they also get some extra leverage in waiver priority to adding players who might get designated for assignment.

Moving to the rotation, Gray had a lot of struggles in his first full MLB season, allowing a league-high 38 homers over his 148 2/3 innings of work.  Gore got off to a great start in his rookie season, though started to struggle in June, and then didn’t pitch in the majors at all after July 25 due to elbow inflammation (and hasn’t officially made his debut in a Nats uniform).  Cavalli also had some shoulder inflammation late in the season, which limited him to a single outing in his first taste of the majors.

While not really a sterling year for any of the trio, the Nationals can only hope for better health and more improvement, as drastic improvement is needed from the starting pitching corps.  Washington had arguably the worst rotation in baseball in 2022, but the Nats into next season with a tentative top five already in place — Gray, Gore, Cavalli, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg.

Naturally, there isn’t much certainty in this group.  Corbin ate 152 2/3 innings but posted only a 6.31 ERA and a blue-tinged Statcast page, although his 4.34 SIERA indicates that he was hurt to some extent by the Nationals’ porous defense.  Still, this marks three straight subpar seasons for Corbin, who is still owed $59MM over the final two years of his six-year, $140MM contract.  Unless the Nationals can move Corbin for another team’s undesirable contract, the veteran left-hander holds no trade value, leaving the Nats to hope he can regain any of his old form over the final two years of the deal.

The situation is even more dire with Strasburg, who appeared in just one game last season, and has pitched only 31 1/3 total innings since the start of the 2020 season.  As thoracic outlet syndrome continues to plague Strasburg’s career, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to reliably pitch again, let alone pitch effectively or get anywhere close to his past All-Star form.

There is certainly plenty of cause for the Nationals to augment this projected rotation with some starting depth.  Erick Fedde might be tendered a contract simply due to this need for depth, though Fedde has also struggled to deliver results.  Advanced metrics didn’t care for Anibal Sanchez’s performance in 2022, but the veteran’s comeback had the solid bottom-line result of a 4.28 ERA over 69 1/3 innings.  He could serve as pitching depth on a minor league pact.  Whether Sanchez or another experienced pitcher or two, any new arms acquired would (once again) profile as possible deadline trade candidates, and would likely be on the more inexpensive side.

Some help will be needed for the bullpen, as Erasmo Ramirez and Steve Cishek are both free agents, and Tanner Rainey will miss most or all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery.  Kyle Finnegan pitched well in the closer’s role after Rainey was injured, so Finnegan probably has the inside track for ninth-inning work in 2023, though Washington might seek out a veteran with closing experience to provide Finnegan with competition.  Lefty Sean Doolittle has already expressed interest in a reunion with the Nats after missing most of the season due to elbow surgery.

Unexpectedly, the Nationals’ bullpen was something of a bright spot in the dismal 107-loss season, after the relief corps was so often a weak link for the Nats’ contending teams in the past decade.   They’ll return four relievers — Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Hunter Harvey and Andres Machado — who had at least 39 innings with ERAs of 3.51 or better.  Anyone from that group could be considered a trade candidate this winter, but it’s unlikely any of the four would draw a massive return.

Without any top-tier trade options remaining on the roster, it could be that a lot of the heaviest lifting is over with the rebuild.  The Nationals will now have to play the waiting game and see which of their current young players emerge in the majors, and which longer-term prospects continue to develop and climb the minor league ladder.  Since any additions to the MLB roster are likely to be relatively mild in nature,  the results of the ownership search will probably generate the biggest headlines of the Nationals’ offseason.

Eric Hosmer Gained Full No-Trade Rights With Deal To Red Sox

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Eric Hosmer’s contract with the Padres contained a limited no-trade clause, one which became a central topic for a few hours on the day of the deadline. Initially reported to be included in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell swap as a means of offsetting salary, Hosmer used his no-trade rights to block a move to a last-place Washington club.

The Friars and Nats went through with the Soto swap, subbing in Luke Voit instead. San Diego then pivoted and dealt Hosmer to the Red Sox — a team that was not on his no-trade list — along with minor leaguers Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson for pitching prospect Jay Groome. As part of that swap, San Diego agreed to pay down all the remaining money on Hosmer’s contract minus the league minimum.

Hosmer still has three years and $39MM remaining on that deal, as he’ll certainly bypass the chance to opt out and retest free agency this winter. For the next trio of seasons, he’ll also have complete no-trade protection. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Hosmer’s contract contains a stipulation that he’d receive a full no-trade clause if San Diego traded him. The move to Boston triggered that provision, giving Hosmer control over any future movement.

While it was hard for the Padres to find a taker for the 12-year veteran on his $144MM deal, a trade from Boston isn’t difficult to envision. With the Red Sox not responsible for any notable chunk of money, they could market Hosmer to other teams for virtually no financial penalty. Boston still would not receive an immense return in that scenario, but he’d be a plausible buy-low candidate for a team seeking a left-handed bat.

Hosmer hit .268/.334/.382 across 419 plate appearances this season. While he was actually far better against left-handed pitching than righties in a small sample this year, he has more typical platoon splits over a multi-year span. Dating back to the start of 2020, he owns a .270/.346/.414 line while holding the platoon advantage. With San Diego on the hook for the salary, Hosmer’s solid bat against right-handed pitching and strong clubhouse reputation could have some appeal on the trade market.

The Red Sox figure to be open to parting with the 32-year-old, as Boston broke in top prospect Triston Casas late in the season. Baseball America’s #19 prospect entering the year, Casas hit .273/.382/.481 across 317 plate appearances at Triple-A Worcester to earn an MLB call in September. While he only hit .197 in his first 27 MLB games, the former first-rounder slugged five home runs and took 19 walks against 23 strikeouts. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom praised Casas’ plate discipline last week (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive) and conceded he “(doesn’t) know yet” whether Boston would be prepared to devote active roster spots to both Hosmer and Casas. Each hits left-handed and is limited to first base or designated hitter. While the Sox will see DH J.D. Martinez hit free agency, they could certainly retain Martinez or bring in another bat in an effort to bolster a lineup that was a hair better than average this season.

Boston’s limited financial commitments to Hosmer mean they presumably wouldn’t have any qualms about releasing him if they felt they were squeezed for flexibility by carrying multiple first basemen. It stands to reason they’d prefer to trade him for even a modest return than release him altogether if it came to that, but the revelation that Hosmer can block any deal adds a wrinkle to that potential scenario, although it’s certainly one of which the Boston front office was aware at the time they acquired him.

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