Mets Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Taijuan Walker
The Mets have opted against issuing a $19.65MM qualifying offer to right-hander Taijuan Walker, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Walker, who made the easy decision to decline a $7.5MM player option earlier this week, will now reach free agency with no restrictions and will not be subject to draft-pick compensation. Unsurprisingly, Heyman adds that the Mets plan to make a QO to all three of Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Chris Bassitt.
Walker, who turned 30 in August, was a borderline candidate and might well have rejected his offer upon receiving one, though the Mets won’t find out and will instead accept the possibility of losing him for no compensation. As a luxury tax payor, they’ll “only” receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for any free agent who rejects a qualifying offer, and apparently the notion of potentially tying up $19.65MM in salary to Walker right out of the offseason gate wasn’t worth that fairly modest bit of compensation for GM Billy Eppler and his staff.
It’s great news for Walker, who’ll now head into free agency search of a multi-year deal that could span three or perhaps even four years in length. The former top prospect has shaken off many of the injury concerns that stemmed from Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery earlier in his career, making 69 of roughly 76 possible starts across the past three seasons. That includes 29 starts and more than 155 innings in each of the past two campaigns.
Since 2020, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged just about 5 1/3 innings per outing in that time, though that would seem to be more in an effort to monitor his workload than due to strong concerns about turning a lineup over for the third time. Since 2020, Walker has yielded a .232/.303/.391 batting line when facing opponents for the third time on a given day. While his numbers the first and second time through the order are better, it’s not the type of cringeworthy third-time split you’ll see with so many starting pitchers.
Walker’s fastball sat 93.8 mph in 2022, so he doesn’t have premium velocity. He doesn’t miss bats or generate grounders at an especially high level but also limits walks at a solid clip. He may not stand out in any one way, but he increasingly looks like a durable mid-rotation arm who could deepen nearly any starting staff in the Majors.
Nick Anderson Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency
November 10: Anderson has cleared waivers and elected free agency, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
November 9: The Rays have placed right-hander Nick Anderson on outright waivers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The hard-throwing reliever no longer occupies a spot on Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster, and other clubs have an opportunity to add him if they’re willing to devote him a roster spot.
It’s certainly not the way the Rays envisioned Anderson’s tenure in the organization coming to a close. He had a breakout rookie season with the Marlins in 2019, and Tampa Bay flipped highly-touted outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Miami to add him at the deadline. Anderson posted a 2.11 ERA with a laughable 52.6% strikeout rate in 21 1/3 innings down the stretch. Anderson followed up with a 0.55 ERA across 16 1/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, working as manager Kevin Cash’s most-trusted leverage arm in both of those years.
Unfortunately, Anderson’s form was diminished in the 2020 postseason. He had some forearm inflammation late in that season, proving a precursor to two years lost to injury. He was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear during Spring Training 2021. He appeared in only six games before going back on the IL. Last October, Anderson underwent a UCL brace procedure to repair his ligament. He was out until August, then suffered plantar fasciitis in his right foot late in the year.
Anderson’s 2022 season consisted of just 16 innings with Triple-A Durham. He put up a 5.63 ERA with a modest 17.4% strikeout rate, and that diminished form eventually led the Rays to cut bait.
With between three and four years of MLB service, Anderson is eligible for arbitration for the first time. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for just an $845K salary, barely above the league minimum. That could lead another team to take a look at a formerly elite bullpen arm via waivers. If Anderson were to go unclaimed, he’d have the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency.
Blue Jays Select Nathan Lukes
The Blue Jays announced a few roster moves, selecting outfielder Nathan Lukes to the 40-man roster. He would have qualified for minor league free agency today otherwise. Additionally, Hyun Jin Ryu and Vinny Capra were reinstated from the 60-day IL.
Lukes, 28, spent most of his minor league career in the Rays’ system before reaching free agency a year ago. He signed a minor league deal with the Jays and spent 2022 with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. He got into 111 games and hit .285/.364/.425 for a wRC+ of 111. He also swiped 20 bags on the year.
Defensively, Lukes split his time between the three outfield positions, though spent more in center than the corners. He could be an interesting fourth outfielder for the Jays, especially given his left-handed bat. The club skews heavily right-handed, particularly in the outfield. All four of George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez and Whit Merrifield hit from the right side.
As for Ryu and Capra, those moves are formalities since the IL ends today and doesn’t come back until Spring Training. That means all players must be reinstated or else removed from the roster in some way. Ryu required Tommy John surgery in June and will miss at least half of 2023. Capra was recalled from the minors in October and placed on the IL due to left middle finger tendon surgery.
Brewers Claim Tyson Miller From Rangers
The Brewers have claimed right-hander Tyson Miller off waivers from the Rangers, according to announcements from both clubs.
Miller, 27, was a fourth round pick of the Cubs and made a very brief MLB debut with them in 2020. The proverbial cup of coffee resulted in five innings pitched over two appearances. He went to the Rangers on a waiver claim in 2021 but didn’t make it back to the show that year.
Here in 2022, he spent most of his time in Triple-A, getting into 29 games there with 16 of those being starts. He logged 89 2/3 innings in that time with a 4.52 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 45.5% ground ball rate. The long ball was an issue for him, as he watched it go over the fence 14 times in that sample. He also logged 10 2/3 innings in the majors though was hit hard to a 10.97 ERA in that time.
Miller still has an option remaining, allowing the Brewers to keep him in the minors as depth. If they can find a way to suppress those homers, the rest of his results look pretty good.
Giants To Decline Evan Longoria’s Option
The Giants have declined their $13MM club option on Evan Longoria, the third baseman tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). He’ll collect a $5MM buyout and head to free agency.
It’s hardly surprising news, as reports emerged last month the team was leaning towards buying Longoria out, although they could still revisit talks at a lower price point. The hefty buyout figure made this an $8MM call for San Francisco, but they’ve still deemed that too high after he’s appeared in just over half the team’s games over the past couple seasons. Within the past two years, the veteran infielder has had injured list stints for right hamstring, left oblique and left shoulder issues, in addition to surgery on his right hand.
Heading into his age-37 season with that recent injury history, Longoria may be a tough fit for a Giants club that is prioritizing youth and athleticism this winter, according to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. That’s particularly true with the team re-signing another right-handed hitting third base option, Wilmer Flores, to a two-year deal late in the year.
To his credit, Longoria has played well when healthy. He has a combined .252/.333/.466 line in 589 plate appearances going back to the start of the 2021 season. That includes an excellent .295/.379/.536 showing against left-handed pitching, making the three-time All-Star a particularly strong fit for teams seeking righty-hitting infield help. The Diamondbacks, Royals and Marlins could all fit that description, making them viable speculative possibilities.
Longoria has previously alluded to the possibility of retiring after an illustrious 15-year big league career. That’s at least theoretically possible, although he tells Slusser this afternoon he’s looking forward to seeing what free agency might offer. That at least suggests he’s open to opportunities to continue playing in 2023.
Padres Notes: Martinez, Tatis, Soto, Payroll
The Padres have discussed the possibility of restructuring the contract of Nick Martinez, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. The right-hander has to decide whether to opt out of the final three years and $19.5MM on his deal by this evening, but Lin suggests it looks likely he’ll remain in San Diego either by opting in to his existing deal or reworking his contract.
According to Lin, one idea under consideration is to remove future opt-out possibilities from Martinez’s deal. The four-year guarantee he signed upon coming over from NPB last winter afforded him opt-out chances after each season, giving the former Ranger hurler plenty of long-term contractual leverage. If he’s to forfeit that right moving forward, the Padres would certainly have to increase the guaranteed money on his deal over the coming seasons.
San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged the 32-year-old would prefer to work as a starting pitcher. Martinez started 10 games this year but otherwise came out of the bullpen 37 times. He fared better in relief and Lin writes that some within the organization believe he’s better suited for such a role, but giving Martinez at least the opportunity to crack the rotation could aid San Diego’s efforts to keep him around for the next few seasons. The Friars have Joe Musgrove under contract for five years, but Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are headed into the final seasons of their respective deals. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are now free agents.
On the position player side, Preller provided reporters (including Lin and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN) with an update on Fernando Tatis Jr. Coming off a season lost to wrist/shoulder surgeries and a stunning performance-enhancing drug suspension, the two-time Silver Slugger winner is now something of a Wild Card. He’ll be eligible to return from his PED suspension on April 20 next year, and Preller noted he’s expected to resume baseball activities in January after rehabbing from his shoulder procedure. San Diego saw Ha-Seong Kim break out in his second big league season in Tatis’ stead at shortstop, and Preller acknowledged that Tatis could assume more of a multi-positional role upon returning.
He’ll certainly play every day, but it’s not clear he’ll immediately step back in as the shortstop. Lin reports the Friars are open to moving Tatis to second base on occasion, kicking Jake Cronenworth over to first while leaving Kim at shortstop, where he’s a plus defender. The Friars have also toyed with the possibility of deploying Tatis in the outfield, covering for some offensive struggles from center fielder Trent Grisham and/or the possible free agent departure of left fielder Jurickson Profar. Much depends on how the Padres build out their roster over the next few months, of course.
There’s no need for Tatis to see any action in right field, as the Friars have Juan Soto there after their massive deadline splash. He’ll be around for at least another two seasons, as he’s controllable via arbitration through 2024. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes the Friars are likely to try to discuss a longer-term deal with Soto this offseason, although they’ve yet to open those talks. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals that would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history. It’s clear the Padres would have to top that number to get the superstar outfielder’s consideration, but they at least seem likely to open informal discussions. For the moment, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $21.5MM in 2023 if he goes through the arbitration process.
Owner Peter Seidler has expressed a willingness to continue pushing the Friars’ payroll forward, although Acee writes in a separate piece they could be approaching their limit to some extent. Acee suggests they’re likely to open 2023 with a similar payroll as they had this season. San Diego exceeded the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year in 2022, finishing with a CBT figure around $233MM. That’s easily a franchise-high, and Roster Resource projects their CBT number around $216MM for next season. As Acee points out, that leaves them with some room for rotation and left field help, although it raises a question as to how aggressive Preller and his staff might be on the free agent market in particular.
Mets To Pick Up Options On Carlos Carrasco, John Curtiss
The Mets are going to pick up Carlos Carrasco‘s option for 2023, per Tim Healey of Newsday. He’ll earn a $14MM salary instead of a $3MM buyout. They will also pick up their $775K option on reliever John Curtiss instead of the $70K buyout, per Mike Puma of The New York Post.
Carrasco, 36 in March, has been up-and-down over the past few years, with injuries usually contributing to the down parts. Acquired by the Mets prior to 2021, he only tossed 52 2/3 innings last year with a 6.04 ERA. 2020 was much better, as he was healthy enough to make 29 starts and toss 152 frames. In that time, he registered a 3.97 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. With the $14MM option price and $3MM buyout, it was a net $11MM decision for the club. There’s certainly risk in that kind of commitment given Carrasco’s injury history, but it’s also possible that he’s well worth that salary.
What also likely played a role in the Mets’ decision was their broad rotation picture. Jacob deGrom opted out of his contract while Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt declined options in favor of free agency. That’s left three big holes in the club’s starting staff for next year. Even if Carrasco’s age and injury history caused them to consider turning down his option at any point, they might have been dissuaded from doing so by the circumstances. Replacing three starters is challenging enough without creating another vacancy.
With Carrasco now retained, he will slot in behind Max Scherzer as two of the club’s starters next year. There are some in-house options for filling the remaining three slots, such as Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto. However, the Mets have been quite aggressive in upgrading their roster in recent years and will likely bring in reinforcements, either fresh faces or convincing their departing free agents to return.
As for Curtiss, 30 in April, he seemed to be having a breakout in recent years. In 2020, he tossed 25 innings for the Rays with a 1.80 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate. He got traded to the Marlins prior to 2021 and then to the Brewers a few months later. He posted a 3.45 ERA over 44 1/3 innings that year but then required Tommy John surgery in September.
After he was non-tendered by the Brewers, the Mets signed him to a one-year deal, knowing that he would miss the entire 2022 campaign, but with the option for 2023. The $775K salary is barely above the league minimum, which will be $720K next year. There’s little risk in the Mets picking it up and seeing if Curtiss can bounceback to his old form once healthy. They also face a huge amount of turnover in the bullpen, as Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter are all now free agents. Edwin Díaz was set to join that group before he and the Mets agreed to a new contract. Given that the Mets will need to essentially rebuild their entire bullpen, it makes sense to retain any warm they can find.
With these two salaries now on the books, the Mets’ payroll for 2023 is up to $238MM, according to Roster Resource. Their CBT number is slightly ahead at $249MM, since that figure is calculated by looking at the annual average value of contracts over their entire length, not just the 2023 salaries. This year’s top luxury tax bracket will begin at $293MM, with owner Steve Cohen hinting to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post that he could be willing to spend in that range. If that’s the case, the club still has some funds available to continue upgrading the pitching staff and the positional player mix.
Reds Acquire Nick Solak From Rangers
The Reds have acquired outfielder Nick Solak from the Rangers in exchange for cash considerations, according to an announcement from Texas.
Solak, 28, in January, was a second round pick of the Yankees in 2016 but was traded to the Rays as part of the 2018 three-team deal that saw the Yanks get Brandon Drury and the Diamondbacks get Steven Souza Jr. In July of 2019, the Rays flipped him to Texas for Pete Fairbanks.
After that second trade, Solak made his MLB debut with the Rangers, getting into 33 games down the stretch in 2019. It could hardly have gone much better, as Solak hit .293/.393/.491 in that stretch for a wRC+ of 126. He played second and third base in that time, giving the Rangers an exciting option for the infield.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to maintain those results since then. Over 2020 and 2021, he hit .250/.318/.357 for a wRC+ of just 88. He also struggled defensively and got pushed into a corner outfield role, putting more pressure on him to provide value offensively. He was optioned on and off the team throughout 2022, only getting into 35 big league games and not hitting too much when in the lineup. He finished the season on the IL due to a foot fracture and needed to be reinstated since the IL goes away today and doesn’t come back until Spring Training. Instead of adding him back to the roster, the club has swung a deal and sent him to Cincinnati.
For the Reds, there’s little harm in taking a shot on a bounceback. They’ve been stripping the roster down for the past couple of years and aren’t likely to be competitive here in 2023. Although Solak has struggled at the big league level in the past few years, he’s still performed well in Triple-A. In 2022, that led to a batting line of .278/.371/.489 and a wRC+ of 114.
The Reds have some other outfield options, such as Nick Senzel, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley and Aristides Aquino, though none of them are really set in stone. Solak still has one option year remaining, which means the Reds don’t even need to commit an active roster spot for him. If he can get his bat back on track, he still has years of arbitration control remaining.
Rays Decline Kevin Kiermaier’s Option
The Rays announced they’ve officially declined their option over outfielder Kevin Kiermaier. Kiermaier collects a $2.5MM buyout and heads to free agency for the first time in his career.
There hasn’t much suspense with this decision, as reports emerged in early August that Tampa Bay would buy the center fielder out. That would’ve been an easy call for any team, as Kiermaier would otherwise have been in line for a $13MM salary next year. He’s coming off season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip. With a $10.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout price, cutting him loose was a particularly easy call for a Rays club that consistently runs one of the league’s lower payrolls.
The move could officially end Kiermaier’s 10-year tenure in Tampa Bay. One of the game’s best defensive outfielders at his peak, he’s collected three Gold Glove awards in his career. The Rays have long placed an emphasis on strong defense, and that focus was baked into the club’s decision to sign Kiermaier to a $53.5MM extension back in 2017. He’s battled injuries and typically been a below-average hitter over that stretch, but he’s continued to play spectacular defense when healthy enough to take the field.
Both Kiermaier and Rays executives have expressed an openness to continuing their relationship, although that’d certainly come at a lower price point than the value of the option. Meanwhile, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests the Cardinals could have some interest in Kiermaier as a free agent. St. Louis already has Dylan Carlson as their primary center fielder, meaning Kiermaier would likely be a fourth outfield target if the Cards did reach out to his representatives at Reynolds Sports Management.
It’s possible Kiermaier may find better opportunities to play every day in center field elsewhere. He’s headed into his age-33 season and coming off a disappointing .228/.281/.369 showing in 221 plate appearances before the hip surgery. Yet he’s also still one of the sport’s better defensive outfielders, and he’s arguably the second-best center fielder available in a weak free agent class. Excepting top free agent Aaron Judge, who’s better suited for right field long-term, only Brandon Nimmo looks like a slam-dunk regular to play center field next year. Nimmo’s likely to command a nine-figure contract of his own, and Kiermaier is alongside players like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Adam Duvall as the next tier of options. The Dodgers could non-tender Cody Bellinger, which would cut loose a plus defender coming off a couple seasons of offensive struggles, but the options aren’t robust for teams looking for outside help in center field.
Red Sox To Select Enmanuel Valdez
The Red Sox are going to select the contract of infielder Enmanuel Valdez today, according to Christopher Smith of MassLive. Acquired in the Christian Vázquez trade, Valdez was set to reach minor league free agency but will instead get a spot on Boston’s 40-man roster.
Valdez, who turns 24 next month, spent six and a half seasons in the minors of the Astros’ system. For the purposes of seven-year minor league free agency, 2020 counts as a year even though no official games were played due to the pandemic. In that time, he never got a huge amount of attention from prospect evaluators, having never appeared on a Baseball America list of top Houston farmhands coming into this year. FanGraphs gave him an honorable mention on their lists going into 2019, 2020 and 2021.
2022 was a big breakout for Valdez, however, with his bat taking a big step forward. Prior to the trade, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A and produced a combined batting line of .327/.410/.606 for a wRC+ of 151. He slumped a bit after the deal, hitting .237/.309/.422 for a wRC+ of 92. But nonetheless, the Boston brass are intrigued enough that they have given Valdez a roster spot.
He doesn’t appear to have a set position at the moment, having spent time at first, second and third base in 2022, as well as the outfield corners. The Sox have an uncertain position player mix at the moment, with Xander Bogaerts now a free agent. They could look to have Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández cover short, but that would then create a vacancy at second base or center field. Of course, there’s also the possibility of the club re-signing Bogaerts, though it remains to be seen if that’s in the cards. Regardless, Valdez will join Christian Arroyo, Yu Chang and Jeter Downs as depth/utility types battling for playing time next season.