Reds Sign Chuckie Robinson, Jared Solomon To Minor League Deals
The Reds have brought back catcher Chuckie Robinson and pitcher Jared Solomon on minor league deals, according to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. Both players have received an invite to major league spring training.
Robinson, 28 this month, appeared in 25 games for the Reds this year, hitting .136/.136/.271 with two home runs across 60 plate appearances. He also also threw out three of a possible 17 baserunners. Robinson went better in the minors, slashing a more respectable .266/.320/.399 with five home runs between Double-A and Triple-A.
Originally drafted in the 21st round of the 2016 draft by the Astros, Robinson found his way over to the Reds in the minor league phase of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. He’s posted solid offensive numbers in the Reds minor league system, and has thrown out runners at an impressive 33% over his six minor league seasons.
Solomon, 25, was drafted in the 11th round of the 2017 draft by the Reds. He made his big league debut this year, tossing 8 1/3 innings out of the Reds bullpen for a 10.80 ERA. He did strike out nine batters in that short stint, but also gave up five walks and three home runs.
It wasn’t much better in the minor leagues for Solomon, as he struggled to an 8.93 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. The strikeout rate was solid enough, but he struggled with the long ball, giving up 12 of them in that time.
Robinson had been outrighted off the roster in October before electing free agency, while Solomon was designated for assignment last month.
Latest On Aaron Judge
7:32PM: Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke with reporters (including Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand) about Judge, saying that the Yankees had exchanged several offers with the outfielder’s camp, and Cashman had spoken with Judge’s agent earlier today. The club doesn’t have any deadline for Judge to make a decision. The Yankees haven’t gotten any word about whether or not they will get the opportunity to counter or match any final offer Judge might receive from any other team. In another interview with YES Network’s Meredith Marakovits and Jack Curry (Twitter link), Cashman said the team didn’t have any plans to meet with Judge in person during the Winter Meetings.
3:49PM: There isn’t much doubt that Aaron Judge‘s next contract will top the $300MM mark, though the exact distance over $300MM and the length of the deal are still unknown. Recent reports have suggested that the Yankees offered Judge an eight-year pact worth roughly $300MM, and that a minimum of nine years will be required to sign the AL MVP.
That nine-year demand might already be a reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) hears some speculation from industry sources that Judge has a nine-year offer in hand. The Yankees’ previous offer wasn’t said to be their final bid, so it could be that New York added an extra year to retain their longtime star. Or, it could be that the Giants (another team known to be in hot pursuit of Judge) have floated a nine-year offer, or perhaps even an unknown team.
On the topic of the ever-popular mystery teams, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that other teams beyond the Yankees and Giants “remain on the periphery” of Judge’s market. With the numbers this high, of course, only certain big-spending clubs are realistic candidates to sign Judge in the first place, unless a mid-payroll team decided to make an unexpected splurge.
The Red Sox are no strangers to big payrolls, and they have at least checked in with Judge’s representatives, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports. As intriguing as it would be to see Judge switch sides in the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, the Sox are “not one of the most aggressive teams” in the Judge race, as Cotillo characterizes Boston’s interest more as “due diligence” rather than a true push to sign the slugger.
The Dodgers are the only other team publicly known to have some interest in Judge, though preferably on a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote over the weekend. A nine-year asking price could put Los Angeles out of the running, but given the Dodgers’ financial resources, they can certainly afford a longer-term deal if they are determined to land Judge. With Trea Turner now gone to the Phillies and Justin Verlander (a prime Dodgers target) signing with the Mets, however, it is worth wondering if the Dodgers might now more firmly pivot towards Judge.
Angels Sign Carlos Estevez
The Angels have continued their early-offseason activity, announcing the signing of reliever Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $13.5MM deal. The former Rockie receives $6.75MM in each of the next two seasons, the team disclosed.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic suggested earlier this afternoon the Halos were hoping to add to their late-inning mix. Within a few hours, they’ve finalized an agreement to add a power arm to Phil Nevin’s bullpen. Estévez is among the hardest throwers in the sport, and he’s coming off the best season of what has been an up-and-down MLB career.
Estévez began with a pair of seasons with an ERA north of 5.00. He took a step forward in 2019, working to a 3.75 ERA across 72 frames while striking out an above-average 26.3% of opponents. The native of the Dominican Republic looked like a potential high-leverage arm for the Rockies, but he stumbled to a 7.50 ERA during the abbreviated 2020 campaign thanks to massive home run issues.
The right-hander has gotten the longball in check over the past two seasons and performed at a generally solid level for skipper Bud Black. He worked to a 4.38 mark across 61 2/3 innings in 2021, then posted a career-low 3.47 ERA this past season. He’s struck out opponents at a roughly average clip in both seasons, although his swing-and-miss rate took a step back this year. Estévez generated swinging strikes on only 9% of his offerings in 2022, down almost two percentage points from the year prior and well below his 13.9% personal high in 2019.
Despite the dip in swinging strikes, the Halos will roll the dice on his high-octane arsenal. He averaged a blistering 97.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball, pushing into triple digits on occasion. Estévez has sat in the 97-98 MPH range every year of his major league career, and he’s relied heavily on that heater. He turned to his fastball just over 70% of the time, mixing in a changeup against left-handers and a slider to same-handed opponents.
That slider had excellent results in 2022, helping Estévez stifle right-handed hitters more generally. He held righties to a .204/.292/.306 line through 113 plate appearances. Left-handers only managed a .216/.287/.432 slash themselves, although that success was more built off an unsustainable .222 batting average on balls in play. Estévez had a below-average 19.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, but he punched out an impressive 26.5% of righties.
With his success against right-handers, Estévez should at least profile as a hard-throwing matchup option in the middle innings for Nevin. He’ll join Ryan Tepera and Jimmy Herget as the club’s top right-handed options, while Aaron Loup profiles as their best matchup southpaw. Tepera and Herget have more pedestrian velocity, and Estévez could take over the uncertain ninth inning mix in Orange County. Estévez only has 25 career saves, including just two this past season, but reports this offseason have suggested teams viewed him as a potential closer outside of the league’s most hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Estévez turns 30 later this month, so he was one of the younger free agent relief options available. He’ll strengthen a Halo bullpen that ranked 18th in ERA (3.97) and 22nd in strikeout percentage (22.2%) this past season. It’s certainly possible general manager Perry Minasian and his staff continue to look for ways to strengthen their late-inning mix. They’ve been active in an attempt to snap an eight-year postseason drought. They signed Tyler Anderson to a three-year, $39MM guarantee to bolster the rotation while swinging deals for Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe to strengthen the infield and outfield, respectively. Estévez becomes the latest in their pattern of acquisitions — a shorter-term investment for a notable but hardly overwhelming salary to build depth which their recent rosters have lacked.
MLBTR predicted a three-year, $21MM deal for Estévez at the start of the offseason. He lands a salary in that range annually, but the Halos keep their commitment to two seasons. Anaheim’s payroll now sits around $198MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s already above this past season’s $189MM Opening Day figure, which was a franchise-record outlay. Anaheim is also looking into ways to upgrade the middle infield, so it seems likely they’ll wind up above $200MM by the time the 2023 season rolls around. Their luxury tax commitments are now around $212MM, per Roster Resource, leaving approximately $21MM in breathing room before next year’s base tax threshold.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Estévez were in agreement on a deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report it was a two-year guarantee worth around $14MM.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Nationals Looking For Upgrades In Rotation, Lineup
Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo met with the media at the Winter Meetings today. As part of that session, he mentioned starting pitching and “another offensive player” as the club’s needs, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The bat would ideally be left-handed, reports Alden González of ESPN.
The Nats were the worst team in baseball in 2022, after leaning hard into rebuilding mode in recent years. Superstars like Trea Turner, Max Scherzer and Juan Soto were all sent to other teams in exchange for prospects, leaving the club with a roster largely consisting of unproven youngsters and veteran placeholders. As such, there are many areas of the roster where they could easily find upgrades this winter.
The rotation is certainly one of those areas, as they have plenty of uncertainty there. Stephen Strasburg has pitched just over 30 innings over the past three seasons combined and still isn’t sure what he can do in the future. Patrick Corbin still has two seasons remaining on his contract but has seen his ERA climb in four straight years, ending up at 6.31 in 2022. Apart from those two, the other rotation options are limited in experience and have concerns with either their health or performance. Josiah Gray has a 5.17 ERA through 219 1/3 career innings. Cade Cavalli made one MLB start before shoulder inflammation ended his 2022. MacKenzie Gore used to be the top pitching prospect in the sport but lost his command over 2020 and 2021. He got back on track in 2022 but then missed the second half of the season due to elbow inflammation.
Given all those question marks, a solid veteran presence would make sense. This theoretical pitcher could both provide a stabilizing presence for the club while also turning into a trade chip, getting flipped at the deadline for prospects. The Nats aren’t likely to beat the market for highly sought after hurlers like Carlos Rodón or Jameson Taillon, but they could perhaps look to other options like Ross Stripling, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski or Drew Smyly.
As for the bat the club is looking to add, the most logical place would be the outfield, given that they have plenty of infield options. Youngsters CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia are likely to get the playing time in the middle infield to see if they can establish themselves as core pieces. As for the corners, the club will probably give first baseman Joey Meneses a chance to see if his rookie breakout at the age of 30 was real. Faded prospect Carter Kieboom could get the bulk of the playing time at third if he seems healthy and on track in the spring. The club signed Jeimer Candelario as a backup plan for Kieboom, though he could also move over to the first base/designated hitter mix if Kieboom continues to struggle. Meanwhile, veteran Ildemaro Vargas is on hand to play a utility role or slot into any position that is vacated by injury or underperformance.
In the outfield, things seem a bit less settled. Lane Thomas seems likely to get one of the spots on the grass after having a decent showing over the past two seasons. His ability to plan center field perhaps spells trouble for Victor Robles, who is a strong defender and has speed but has posted a wRC+ under 70 for three straight years now. Alex Call had a nice debut in 2022 but in a small sample of just 47 games. There’d be plenty of room for a veteran addition here, with the club seemingly preferring a lefty since Thomas, Call, Robles, Meneses and Kieboom are all righties. It’s unlikely that the Nats would beat the market for a Cody Bellinger or a Michael Conforto, since both seem to have plenty of interest. However, veterans like David Peralta, Kevin Kiermaier or Corey Dickerson can all likely be had on one-year deals without breaking the bank, though those are just speculative fits. Much like the planned addition of a starting pitcher, there’s plenty of sense in adding a veteran to help guide the younger players while also potentially adding someone who can be traded in the middle of the year.
The Nats would surely love to improve on a season where they lost 107 games, but short term contention isn’t likely to be a priority with the holes on the roster and the strengths of their opponents. The Mets have been aggressively spending, including reportedly signing Justin Verlander earlier today. The Phillies are coming off a World Series appearance and have reportedly added Trea Turner. The Braves have locked up most of their young players to extensions and seem poised to contend for a long time. It will be a long climb for the Nats to catch those clubs, which will likely start with some modest moves for 2023.
Thomas Eshelman Takes Coaching Job With Padres
Right-hander Thomas Eshelman announced his retirement after eight professional seasons, and the former Orioles hurler is now moving into the coaching ranks as a pitching coach in the Padres organization.
“Officially on the other side of the fence,” the 28-year-old Eshelman wrote as part of his official statement on his Twitter feed. “I’ve been blessed to be able to play the game I love for so long and I’m excited to share the things that I’ve learned and will continue to learn with the generations to come.”
The right-hander only appeared with the Orioles at the MLB level, posting a 5.77 ERA over 98 1/3 innings with Baltimore during the 2019-21 seasons. However, Eshelman was a member of four different organizations during his career, beginning with the Astros when Houston selected him in the second round of the 2015 draft. He only lasted a few months in Houston, as the Astros dealt Eshelman to the Phillies that offseason as part of a memorable seven-player deal. That same swap saw Ken Giles land in Houston, while Vince Velasquez and former first overall pick Mark Appel were among the players who joined Eshelman in Philadelphia.
Eshelman was traded to Baltimore in June 2019, which gave the right-hander his first crack at the majors. Working mostly as a starter in the minors, Eshelman became a swingman with the O’s, getting some starts in the rotation and otherwise acting in a multi-inning relief role. Eshelman was designated for assignment several times over his three years with the Orioles, and departed the team for good when he signed a minors deal with the Padres last winter. In what ended up as his final pro season, Eshelman had 5.76 ERA over 114 combined innings with San Diego’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.
Eshelman hails from Carlsbad, California and played his college ball at Cal State-Fullerton. As he noted in his Twitter statement, his “next journey in this game I love” will come with his “hometown team,” giving him an ideal environment to begin his coaching endeavors. MLBTR congratulates Eshelman on his playing career and we wish him all the best in the coaching ranks.
Angels Looking For Shortstop Upgrades, Back-End Reliever
The Angels have been one of the more active teams this winter and still have some more moves planned. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they are looking for upgrades at shortstop. However, he adds that the club’s immediate focus is a back-end reliever.
The club’s interest in shortstop upgrades is hardly surprising, as they’ve been looking for solutions at the position for a while now. Andrelton Simmons held down the spot from 2016 to 2020, largely providing offense near league average alongside his customary excellent defense. After Simmons reached free agency, the club tried José Iglesias at the position in 2021, which didn’t work out.
Going into 2022, they tried some more glove-first options by adding Tyler Wade and Andrew Velazquez to join David Fletcher as players in the mix. Fletcher missed most of the year with injuries, leading to Velazquez getting 100 starts at the position this year. His glovework was rated well, but he struggled at the plate, hitting just .196/.236/.304 for a wRC+ of 50. Even if Fletcher were healthy, it’s not guaranteed he would have been much better since he’s been in the league five years now with his only above-average season at the plate coming in the shortened 2020 campaign. Luis Rengifo had a nice year on offense in 2022 but is probably overmatched as an everyday shortstop in the field, better suited to play second base or a utility role.
Though it’s logical that the club would look for upgrades, they may not be a contender for the top free agents. This year’s crop of free agents features a group called the “big four” at the top of the market: Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. However, Rosenthal reports that they are more likely to join more obvious contenders and that the Angels are wary of the soaring prices. Turner reportedly signed with the Phillies today for $300MM over 11 years. If the Angels are looking for options outside of the that group, the free agent market features Elvis Andrus and their old friend Iglesias, while players potentially available in trade include Amed Rosario and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Turning to the club’s bullpen, that’s another area where it’s sensible for them to look for upgrades. Angels’ relievers collectively posted a 3.97 ERA last year, placing them 18th out of the 30 clubs in the league. They also traded Raisel Iglesias to the Braves at the deadline, leaving them without a surefire lockdown closer. Rosenthal didn’t mention any specific targets, but Kenley Jansen is one of the few proven closers available in free agency. Since the Braves have Iglesias under contract for another three years and are getting near the luxury tax line, it’s possibly he will have greater employment opportunities elsewhere. It would make for a fitting endnote to the Iglesias trade if the Angels replaced him by grabbing Atlanta’s closer, but there are other options. Some of the other relievers who are available in free agency include Carlos Estévez, Adam Ottavino, Matt Moore and many more.
2023 figures to be a pivotal season for the franchise, as the team is reportedly for sale and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani is entering his final season before free agency. The club has been busy so far this winter, signing Tyler Anderson to upgrade their rotation while adding Gio Urshela to the infield and Hunter Renfroe to the outfield. The middle infield and bullpen stand out as the most obvious areas to continue upgrading, and it seems that’s exactly where the club is looking to make their next moves.
Blue Jays Have Made Offer To Andrew Heaney
The Blue Jays are actively exploring the market for rotation help and have put forth an offer to left-hander Andrew Heaney, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Heaney, however, has received varying levels of interest from at least 10 teams and has fielded multiple offers at this point, per the report.
Robust interest in Heaney comes as little surprise. The lefty reportedly drew interest from upwards of a dozen teams last year when he was a rebound candidate seeking a one-year deal in free agency, and while shoulder troubles limited his workload with the Dodgers in 2022, his performance when on the field could scarcely have gone better. Armed with a lethal new slider, Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 72 2/3 innings.
That’s an impressive mark in and of itself, but Heaney’s secondary metrics were even better. He remained far too susceptible to home runs (1.73 HR/9), but Heaney punched out a ridiculous 35.5% of the batters he faced in 2022 and only allowed walks at a 6.1% clip. No pitcher in baseball last year (min. 70 innings) topped Heaney’s sky-high 16.8% swinging-strike rate, and the only two pitchers who induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently than Heaney’s 39.5% were Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase and Toronto righty Kevin Gausman.
Heaney has had more than his fair share of injury troubles over the years, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016 before landing on the IL twice with elbow inflammation (2018, 2019) and then missing three months this past season due to shoulder troubles. On a per-inning basis, however, he arguably turned in the best performance of any free-agent starter outside the top tier of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. The questions teams have to weigh are how much of his newfound Dodgers success is repeatable and just what they feel comfortable projecting for him, workload-wise, in 2023 and beyond.
This marks the second straight offseason in which the Jays have made an offer to Heaney, as Toronto was reportedly among the interested parties to put forth a one-year offer for him last offseason as well. However, while a one-year deal was sufficient for Heaney’s services last November, he appears quite likely to land a multi-year commitment this time around.
Starting pitching has been a priority for the Jays throughout the winter, with Toronto showing interest in starters of a wide array of quality. Nicholson-Smith writes within his Heaney column, for instance, that Toronto was in the mix for Kyle Gibson before he agreed to terms with the Orioles, and he further reports (via Twitter) that the Jays were willing to go multiple years at a high annual value for Verlander before he landed with the Mets earlier today.
As it stands, the Blue Jays have Gausman, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White as their primary options in the rotation. Manoah and Gausman turned in brilliant 2022 seasons and both received some recognition in Cy Young voting — Manoah finished third, Gausman ninth — but the other three struggled through dismal seasons. Berrios had been one of the game’s most consistent starters before stumbling to a 5.23 ERA in 2022. A pricey upside bet on Kikuchi’s blend of velocity and whiffs didn’t pay off (5.19 ERA), and White was tagged for a 7.74 ERA in 10 games after being acquired from the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery early in the summer.
Meanwhile, right-hander Ross Stripling became a free agent on the heels of the finest season of his career. In 134 1/3 innings, Stripling posted a 3.01 ERA with a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but an elite 3.7% walk rate. The Jays could always look to re-sign the 33-year-old, but he’s fielding interest from all 30 teams now and seems a good bet to eventually land a multi-year deal himself.
Yankees Extend GM Brian Cashman
The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve signed general manager Brian Cashman to a four-year contract extension. He’s now signed through 2026.
Now 55 years old, Cashman has been in place as the Yankees’ general manager since 1998. With Billy Beane’s recent transition to an advisory role with the A’s, Cashman became the longest-tenured baseball operations leader in Major League Baseball. The team has somewhat remarkably had a winning record in all 25 of Cashman’s seasons at the helm and made the playoffs in 21 of those 25 campaigns. However, it’s now been 13 seasons since they’ve reached the World Series, with their 2009 victory over the Phillies standing as the most recent time the Yankees advanced past the ALCS.
Cashman has become a lightning rod for criticism from Yankee fans as they continue to voice frustration over the team’s World Series “drought,” and that criticism will only grow louder if reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge departs in free agency, whether to sign with the Giants (his childhood team), the Dodgers or a “mystery team” whose presence in the Judge bidding is not yet known.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner, however, has taken a different tack than that of his late, oft-impulsive father George, praising Cashman’s stability and the annually competitive rosters he’s put together. Granted, possessing one of the sport’s largest payrolls each year can help to paper over plenty of missteps, but we’ve seen plenty of deep-pocketed clubs with huge payrolls post sub-.500 records and miss the postseason over the years. Payroll notwithstanding, that level of consistency is indeed impressive, though the regularity with which the Yankees reach the playoff field has also inherently increased expectations; division titles and ALCS berths are not considered sufficient by a substantial portion of the team’s fan base.
The challenges for Cashman that lay ahead begin but certainly don’t end with Judge. The 2022 American League MVP carried an otherwise lifeless Yankees offense through the second half of the season and captivated a national audience along the way, chasing down and narrowly surpassing Roger Maris’ longstanding American League home run record. Re-signing Judge would send the Yankees barreling into the second tier of luxury tax penalization at a time when there are other clear needs on the roster.
Even if Judge is retained, the Yankees will have a heavily right-handed lineup in need of some balance, to say nothing of multiple undesirable contracts (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks) driving up the actual bottom-line payroll and the team’s luxury-tax number. There’s work to do in the bullpen, too, and the Yankees could see two starters reach free agency following the 2023 season in Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. Their potential exit surely plays a role in the team’s reported interest in Carlos Rodon, who’d likely become an even greater focus should Judge depart. At that point, Cashman and his staff would need to determine whether to pivot and dive back into a shortstop market they eschewed one offseason ago. That decision, in particular, will be placed under a microscope over the next couple years as prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza take center stage in the Bronx.
As with any general manager or president of baseball operations, Cashman’s tenure is checkered with hugely successful transactions and regrettable deals. Last winter’s acquisition of Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa likely didn’t provide the value the team was hoping for (particularly since it cost them a solid campaign from Gio Urshela), and August’s Montas acquisition immediately harkened back to Sonny Gray‘s disappointing tenure with the Yankees. Then again, recent trades for Jose Trevino, Clay Holmes and Anthony Rizzo have been excellent, and Harrison Bader shined with a brilliant postseason effort.
All any general manager or president of baseball ops can do is hope the successes outweigh the missteps and hope to be able to convince ownership they’re the proper person for the job. Yankee fans can have spirited debates about whether the first half of that sentence applies to Cashman, but it’s abundantly clear that Steinbrenner values the continuity, professionalism and persistent winning that Cashman has overseen in what’s now an incredible quarter century on the job.
Twins Rumors: Correa, Arraez, Rotation, Catcher
The Twins are set for another in-person meeting with Scott Boras this week to discuss Carlos Correa, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News reports in his latest podcast (Correa/Twins talk beginning at 10:10). The Twins have already discussed various contract structures with Boras and Correa, reportedly putting forth multiple offers.
Correa, of course, has a broad range of interest, having been connected to the Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Orioles and Dodgers, among others. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last week that Correa could be the first of the four big-name shortstops to come off the board, calling his market “excellent” and noting that the Twins have been “making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around” Correa. If, however, Correa ultimately signs elsewhere, Minnesota’s upcoming meeting with Boras could serve dual purposes; Boras also represents Xander Bogaerts, who is reportedly of interest to the Twins in the event that Correa departs.
While Correa is the focus at this point, pitching upgrades have been a perennial need at Target Field as well. The team has a decent rotation group consisting of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, but each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become a free agent next winter. (Maeda is also returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery, so his workload could well be monitored.) The Twins have quite a few MLB-ready arms behind that group — Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino — and could also get Chris Paddack back from Tommy John surgery next summer.
That said, the potential departure of three starters next winter and lack of proven options behind them at least has the Twins thinking creatively about ways to add high-end, controllable pitching. To that end, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota’s front office has at least discussed the possibility of trading reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez — if the deal could net them a high-end rotation upgrade. To be clear, there’s no indication that the team plans to aggressively shop Arraez.
Arraez, 25, enjoyed an outstanding .316/.375/.420 output at the plate in 2022, tallying eight home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 603 plate appearances. Since making his MLB debut in 2019, he’s been one of baseball’s hardest players to strike out, fanning in just 8.3% of his plate appearances and walking at an even-higher 8.7% clip. Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are practically unmatched, and he’s been fairly disciplined, walking at a roughly league-average clip.
Defensively, Arraez climbed through the minors as a second baseman but has settled into a more nomadic position on the Twins’ roster. With Jorge Polanco locked in at second base (and unlikely to move back to shortstop, where he was a sub-par defender even before a pair of right ankle surgeries), Arraez has logged time at both infield corners, at designated hitter and in left field over the past few seasons. The Twins deployed him primarily at first base in 2022, due in part to injuries to Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. Despite a lack of experience, he handled the position quite well in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) and Outs Above Average (1).
Excellent as Arraez is on the whole, however, it might be tough for him alone to net the Twins the type of impact arm they’d require to actually consider moving him. At this point, while Arraez is still young, he’s already “only” under club control for another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $5MM next season in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two player.
Given that the point of even considering an Arraez deal would be to acquire pitching they can control beyond the upcoming season, they’d likely be looking for at least two years of control in said starting pitcher; giving up three years of Arraez isn’t likely to return a high-end starter with multiple years of club control remaining — particularly not when (as Hayes lays out in greater detail), Arraez has a history of knee troubles dating back to a torn ACL as a minor leaguer in 2017. The Twins could add in some minor league talent to help sweeten any deal, but that’d only further complicate the equation. It’s certainly of note that they’re open to the idea, and it’d be a surprise if other teams didn’t reach out to see just what it might take to pry Arraez loose, but an actual trade seems like a long shot at this time.
The Twins’ other focus as they look toward the 2023 season and beyond has been behind the plate. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he’d like to add another catcher to the mix, and the Twins have spoken at multiple points about wanting to deploy a timeshare behind the plate, splitting time fairly evenly between incumbent Ryan Jeffers — who thrives against left-handed pitching — and a new acquisition. A left-handed bat would best fit the bill, but any catcher who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching would make some sense.
Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras‘ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.
As far as free agents go, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins are among the many teams with some interest in Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez is similar to Jeffers as a right-handed hitter who handles lefties better than righties, his career platoon splits are more even than those of Jeffers, who tattoos lefties but has been vastly below-average against right-handed opponents.
Vazquez, 32, is regarded as a premium defensive option as well, which further adds to his appeal. He’s thrown out a hefty 34% of opponents who attempt to steal against him, consistently drawn plus framing marks, and more broadly has been credited with 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons. Vazquez was a glove-first player for much of his early big league tenure, but dating back to 2019 he’s turned in a .271/.318/.416 batting line. We predicted a three-year, $27MM deal for Vazquez on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings, and Rosenthal reports that Vazquez is indeed likely to command a three-year deal based on the current interest.
However things shake out, it’s shaping up to be another active offseason for the Twins, who are going to be quite involved in both the shortstop and (to a lesser extent) catcher markets in the coming weeks. With their current projected payroll of about $98MM sitting more than $40MM shy of where they opened the 2023 season — and no indication that number serves as a ceiling — the Twins should have the latitude to pursue just about any target they choose, but it’s quickly become clear that their general offseason direction hinges on Correa.
Carlos Rodon Seeking Six-Year Deal
With Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander off the market — to the Rangers and to the Mets, respectively — Carlos Rodon is the clear top starting pitcher left on the free-agent market. As one would expect for a 29-year-old lefty (30 next week) who opted out of the second season of his contract on the heels leading the National League in strikeouts, the asking price appears quite high. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that agent Scott Boras and Rodon have been seeking a six-year deal at an annual rate of $30MM or more. (Notably, that report pre-dates Verlander’s new agreement with the Mets.) Heyman suggests that the Yankees are the large-market team that is most focused on Rodon at present.
As always, it’s worth taking early asking prices with a grain of salt to some degree. That’s not to say Rodon can’t reach six years and/or a $30MM+ annual value, but it behooves any free agent to at least initially set a lofty asking price. A six-year deal for Rodon would put the lefty in rarefied air, as the list of free-agent pitchers to secure such a commitment is quite short.
No free-agent pitcher has pulled in six-plus years on the open market since the 2019 Winter Meetings, when Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) managed to do so. Prior to that pairing, the only free-agent deals of six or more years in length over the past decade have gone to Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke (twice!) and Patrick Corbin. Starting pitchers earning more than $30MM annually are similarly rare; Cole, Strasburg, Scherzer, Price, Greinke, Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and deGrom are the only pitchers to ever reach that level.
For Rodon to join either group of arms, he’ll need to convince the market that the injury troubles that dogged him for much of his early career are in the past. Rodon has undergone shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery in his career, and due to those injuries pitched just 232 1/3 innings at the Major League level over a four-year period (2017-20).
However, the former No. 3 overall pick returned to the White Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal in 2021 after being non-tendered, and broke out with one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the sport. Through mid-July in 2021, Rodon was the clear front-runner for American League Cy Young honors and quite arguably the most dominant pitcher in either league. Shoulder fatigue down the stretch dropped his velocity and relegated him to just six starts over the final two months, and durability concerns “limited” him to a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants — one that allowed him to opt out of the contract after one season if he pitched at least 110 innings.
Rodon not only reached 110 innings — he dominated to the tune of a 2.88 ERA through a career-high 178 frames. He held his velocity late in the season, averaged better than 5 2/3 frames per start and took significant strides toward alleviating some durability concerns. He paced the National League in strikeouts this past season and has now turned in consecutive campaigns with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, he leads all Major League pitchers (min. 200 innings) with a 33.9% strikeout rate. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, which may slightly impact his earning power, but that consideration shouldn’t be a major encumbrance for an in-his-prime, ace-caliber pitcher.
That’s especially true now, because with deGrom and Verlander off the market and little to no frontline starting pitchers clearly available in the trade market, demand for Rodon should be extra-steep. He can justifiably hold out for max years and/or dollars and go to the highest bidder, knowing that teams in need of an ace have no readily available alternative. Unlike Verlander, who surely prioritized signing with a win-now team due to his age, Rodon can consider a broader field of suitors. To this point in the offseason Rodon has drawn interest from as many as nine teams, with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Rangers, Twins and Orioles among the team’s reported to be involved in his market to at least some extent.