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A Breakout Reliever In The Desert: Joe Mantiply

By Maury Ahram | October 23, 2022 at 11:47am CDT

Amidst a rebuild, the Arizona Diamondbacks are finally seeing the fruits of their labor. Led by promising starters Zac Gallen, 2.54 ERA in 184 innings, and Merrill Kelly, 3.37 ERA in 200 1/3 innings, and backed offensively by a quartet of promising young outfield talent, Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, and Corbin Carroll, the D-Backs are quickly re-entering a competitive window.

However, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is still falling flat. After signing Mark Melancon to a 2-year, $12MM contract ($5MM mutual option for the 2024 season, $2MM buyout) and Ian Kennedy to a 1-year, $4.5MM contract ($4MM club option for the 2023 season, $250K buyout), the D-Backs’ pen posted the sixth-highest ERA (4.58), the eighth-most blown saves (27), the lowest strikeout rate (19.7%), and allowed the third-highest batting average (.254). Veterans Melancon and Kennedy did not fare much better. Melancon pitched to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings with a paltry 14.2% strikeout rate and a career-worst 43.2% ground ball rate, while Kennedy pitched to a 5.36 ERA in 50 1/3 innings with a weak 19.0% strikeout rate and an extremely low 24.4% groundball rate.

However, the breakout of lefty journeyman Joe Mantiply was a bright spot among an otherwise weak bullpen performance. Mantiply, a former 27th-round pick from Virginia Tech by the Tigers in 2013, reached the majors for a quick stint in 2016, before shuffling around various minor league teams and undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. He signed a minor league deal with Arizona in 2020, making another short appearance in 2020 before eventually joining the team in a more long-term fashion during the 2021 season, in which he pitched 39 2/3 innings to a 3.40 ERA with opponents hitting a strong .292/.358/.448 against him.

In the 2022 season Mantiply, who is controllable through the 2026 season, improved his 2021 numbers. Pitching to a low 2.85 ERA in 60 innings with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.5% walk rate, and missing hitters’ barrels (99th percentile for Chase Rate, 94th percentile for Barrel %), the 31-year-old earned a trip to the All-Star game in his second full season. Left-handed hitters have found limited success against Mantiply, slashing a poor .247/.297/.282 against him, while righties are hitting a slightly better .260/.272/.404. The unsightly .252 combined average may be cause for concern, however, Mantiply is tied for the 27th lowest Hard Hit%, among relievers to pitch 50+ innings, and is in the 89th percentile for Average Exit Velocity.

The Diamondbacks will likely look to address their bullpen again this offseason, but with a high-leverage lefty reliever in Mantiply, they will have one less bullpen spot to fill.

Trade Candidate: Rowdy Tellez

By Maury Ahram | October 23, 2022 at 9:52am CDT

When the Blue Jays traded Rowdy Tellez to the Brewers in June 2021, the move was mostly seen as a depth addition to stabilize first base after slugger Daniel Vogelbach went down with a hamstring injury. Now, over a year since that trade was completed, Tellez has blossomed into a righty-masher, posting a .222/.303/.498 (117 wRC+) slash line against right-handed pitchers in 2022, with a collective .219/.307/.462 line and 35 homers against all competition.

On the heels of such a productive season, Tellez will garner some trade interest. Predicted to earn only $5.3MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, Tellez projects as an affordable option in a thin first base market (recently analyzed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco). Besides José Abreu, Josh Bell, potentially Anthony Rizzo if he executes his opt-out, and a few veterans coming off down years, there are few first basemen available that provide power similar to Tellez.

As for the Brewers, while they do not currently have any top prospects at first base, ranked by MLB.com, former Brewers’ top prospect Keston Hiura does not have a clear starting spot. Willy Adames and Luis Urías are penciled in as the starting shortstop and third baseman, respectively, and Kolten Wong is patrolling Hiura’s natural position, second base, with prospect Brice Turang waiting in the wings if the Brewers decline Wong’s club option this offseason. With a crowded infield, the Brewers may be forced with the tough call of starting Hiura, who hit .226/.316/.449 in 80 games last season, and trading Tellez, or potentially moving on from Hiura due to the logjam.

If the Brewers decide to trade Tellez, some teams that might be interested in the slugger include the Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants.

The Astros relied on Yuli Gurriel to hold down first base during the 2022 season, but the 38-year-old, who will turn 39 during the 2023 season, showed signs of decline, hitting a meager .242/.288/.360 in 146 games. It’s a far cry from the strong .319/.383/.462 line the righty posted in the 2021 season, and more akin to his weaker, pandemic-shortened 2020 showing in which he hit .232/.274/.384 in 57 games. Internally, the Astros have Yainer Díaz and Joe Perez as potential heirs to Gurriel. Both players made their MLB debut in 2022, but neither progressed through the minor league system as first basemen. Díaz, who hit .294/.343/.587 in Triple-A Sugar Land this past season split time at catcher and first, after beginning his minor league career as a catcher. Perez spent time at the other corner infield position, third base, but is blocked by All-Star Alex Bregman. Perez spent the majority of the 2022 season at Doble-A Corpus Christi where he slashed .265/.355/.397 in 64 games.

The Giants primarily used a combination of Brandon Belt and Wilmer Flores at first base this past season. The lefty Belt hit an underwhelming .213/.326/.350 and underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee while the righty Flores hit a slightly stronger .229/.316/.394. With Belt a free agent, the Giants could trade for Tellez to platoon with utility man Wilmer Flores. However, the Giants may opt to bring back Belt in hopes of a rebound season after he slashed an impressive .274/.378/.597 during the 2021 season.

AL Central Notes: Maddon, White Sox, Hedges, Guardians, Twins

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2022 at 9:09pm CDT

As the White Sox continue to hunt for a new manager, one prominent name yet to be involved in the mix is Joe Maddon. The former Rays/Cubs/Angels skipper told the Cubs Talk podcast (on NBC Sports Chicago, hat tip to Tim Stebbins) that “I’ve not heard from [the White Sox] at all,” though Maddon would “of course…be interested” in chatting with the team. Maddon has yet to be publicly linked to any of the open managerial vacancies this winter, though he has remained in the news due to a publicity tour for his upcoming book.

For a White Sox team that is reportedly hoping to replace Tony La Russa with another experienced manager, Maddon would seem like an intriguing candidate on paper, given both his long and successful track record and his past Chicago ties. However, of the four candidates linked thus far to the Sox job, two (Ron Washington and Ozzie Guillen) have past experience managing in the majors, while the other two (Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol and Astros bench coach Joe Espada) would be first-time skippers at the MLB level.

Marlins, Royals Interview Dusty Wathan For Managerial Posts

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2022 at 6:43pm CDT

Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan interviewed with the Marlins and Royals about their managerial vacancies this past week, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports. Wathan has been fitting these interviews in between gaps in the Phils’ postseason schedule, speaking with Miami last Sunday (the day after the Phillies clinched their NLDS matchup with the Braves) and the Royals on Thursday (between Games 2-3 of the NLCS).

Wathan has never managed at the Major League level, but he did amass quite a bit of dugout experience in the minors from 2008-17, managing affiliates at five different levels of Philadelphia’s farm system. He was also a candidate for the Phillies’ managerial post prior to the 2018 season, and after that job went to Gabe Kapler, Wathan still received a promotion to the MLB coaching staff as the new third base coach.

Following the 2018 season, Wathan interviewed for the Rangers’ managerial opening that was eventually filled by Chris Woodward. Now, the 49-year-old Wathan is again on the radar for teams in need of a new skipper, with the Kansas City job adding some particular intrigue given Wathan’s longstanding ties to the organization.

A veteran of 14 seasons in the minor leagues, Wathan’s only MLB experience came in a Royals uniform, as he appeared in three games during the 2002 season. Beyond that cup of coffee, Wathan also carried on part of a family tradition in Kansas City, as his father John spent 47 years with the organization in a wide variety of roles, including player (from 1976-85) and manager (1987-91). The elder Wathan only just retired at the end of the 2022 season, and Dina Blevins (John’s daughter and Dusty’s sister) still works for the Royals as part of their community impact department.

Wathan is the third known candidate to interview with the Royals in their search for Mike Matheny’s replacement, joining bench coach Pedro Grifol and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. Grifol and Quartraro are also candidates in Miami, and both have received a second interview for the position.

Given that the Marlins are already in the second-interview phase, it would seem like they’re relatively close to making a decision on their new manager, though there haven’t been a lot of public details about the team’s search. Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker is also reportedly one of the leading contenders for the job, though it isn’t known if he has also gotten a second interview, or if the pool of Schumaker/Grifol/Quatraro could comprise a group of finalists. Former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons also interviewed with the Marlins, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link), but it doesn’t appear that Gibbons is still under consideration.

Offseason Chat Transcript: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2022 at 5:37pm CDT

In conjunction with the Red Sox offseason outlook post published last week, click here to read the reader chat devoted to questions about Boston’s winter plans.

Jose Quintana’s Resurgence Sets Up Intriguing Trip To Free Agency

By Simon Hampton | October 22, 2022 at 2:25pm CDT

When the Pirates inked veteran starter Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM deal last November, it generated little fanfare. After a couple of rough seasons, Quintana was no longer viewed as a reliable starting option and expectations on the 33-year-old were minimal. However, the Pirates’ modest bet on Quintana paid off handsomely, as the southpaw will go down as one of the better free agent signings of the 2021-22 offseason.

Quintana turned in 165 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball across 32 starts, 20 of those came with the Pirates before he was traded to the division rival Cardinals at the trade deadline. Only 16 pitchers had a better fWAR than Quintana’s 4.0 total, and Quintana will certainly get some votes as NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Quintana has been a workhorse for much of his career, beginning with four straight seasons of 200+ innings with the White Sox from 2013-16. Much more than just an innings-eater, Quintana posted a 3.35 ERA over that four-season stretch, highlighted by a 2016 season that saw him make the All-Star team and finish tenth in AL Cy Young Award voting. The White Sox weren’t in contention during this period, and with a rebuild in progress, Quintana became one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The Sox held onto the left-hander until July 2017, before dealing Quintana to the crosstown Cubs for four prospects — including Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.

It’s a trade that still generates some hard feelings in Wrigleyville, as Jimenez and Cease have blossomed into stars for the White Sox and Quintana’s production took a step back as a Cub. He posted a 4.24 ERA over his 439 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2017-20, and thumb surgery and a lat injury limited him to just 10 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, marking the first significant injury absences of Quintana’s career.

Hitting free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, the Angels signed Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal, hoping that he could bounce back and help solidify the rotation. Unfortunately, Quintana pitched his way out of their rotation altogether with an unsightly 8.23 ERA in ten starts. He fared slightly better in their bullpen, but the Angels cut ties with the lefty in August 2021, and Quintana didn’t have much success in five relief appearances with the Giants after San Francisco claimed him off waivers.

So, where did it go wrong? For one, the 2021 version of Quintana was a statistical outlier from the rest of his career, as both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and walk rate (11.8%) were far above his career averages. Chasing the extra missed bats seemed to make Quintana a bit more of a predictable pitcher, especially since he also cut back on the use of his slider and started throwing a (mostly ineffective) changeup more often. As a result, batters were teeing off on Quintana’s offering, resulting in a career-worst home run rate.

To be fair, Quintana was also hampered by some bad luck in 2021, as his 3.94 SIERA took a far more favorable view of his performance than his 6.43 ERA. While Quintana didn’t help himself by allowing more homers and a ton of hard contact, he also didn’t get much assistance from the Angels’ mediocre defense, as evidenced by his huge .378 BABIP. (Angels pitchers had a collective .305 BABIP in 2021, the third-highest total in all of baseball.)

With a better Pirates defense behind him, Quintana got back on track this season. Quintana stuck with more or less the same mix of pitchers, though he has cut back on his fastball usage and leaned more heavily on his off-speed stuff. The lower fastball usage turned Quintana’s four-seamer into one of the most effective pitches thrown by any hurler in 2022, with a -17 Run Value according to Statcast.

Quintana’s strikeout (20.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates also returned to around his career norms, and his problems with the long ball almost entirely disappeared — his 5.3% homer rate was the lowest of his career, and his eight total home runs allowed were the lowest of any qualified pitcher in baseball. After finishing in only the sixth percentile of all pitchers in hard-contact percentage in 2021, Quintana zoomed back above average in 2022, as his 35.8% mark put him in the 68th percentile.

This production led to plenty of interest at the trade deadline, and St. Louis ended up landing both Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for right-hander Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcom Nunez. It was a nice return for the Pirates for a rental player, and the Cardinals were surely satisfied with their end of the deal. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA over his 62 2/3 innings after the trade, helping the Cards capture the NL Central. The southpaw then added 5 1/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, though a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown cost St. Louis the victory.

Given this success, Quintana looks like a solid bet to receive a multi-year contract in free agency this winter, though plenty of factors will weigh into the size of that deal. He turns 34 in January, and teams won’t forget about his 2020-21 struggles just because he turned things around this year. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted in his preview of the Cardinals’ offseason, Quintana is an option to return to St. Louis, but the Cardinals may opt to pursue cheaper pitching options in favor of a bigger splash elsewhere on the roster. Still, Quintana’s return to form makes him an attractive target for any number of teams who need quality and durability in the rotation.

Tommy Hunter Wants To Keep Pitching, Open To Return To Mets

By Simon Hampton | October 22, 2022 at 12:33pm CDT

Veteran reliever Tommy Hunter is keen to keep playing, and is interested in a return to the Mets, according to Tim Healey of Newsday.

“I love the game. I loved it here. We’ll see what happens. I think I’m still decently good at the game. And there’s an argument to keep going. My kids love it. As long as they say I can play, them I’m going to keep playing,” Hunter said.

Hunter, 36, made 18 appearances out of the Mets bullpen, pitching to a 2.42 ERA across 22 1/3 innings. Advanced metrics were less enthused about Hunter’s performance, as his FIP sat at 4.28, but his strikeout (23.4%) and walk (6.4%) rates were largely in line with his career numbers, and while his home run rate did jump a bit, it’s perhaps unfair to attribute too much meaning to that given the smaller sample size.

It was the second stint in Queens for Hunter, who pitched eight innings for the Mets in 2021 before going on the injured list for the remainder of the season with a lower back injury, including during his time with the Rays after he was dealt there in the Rich Hill trade. Hunter also twice spent time on the injured list this season with lower back tightness. Injuries have long been a problem for the talented pitcher, and he’s dealt with forearm, calf and hamstring strains dating back to 2017.

However, there’s no denying Hunter’s ability when fit, and his career 3.18 ERA as a reliever across seven teams is evidence of that. Given he finished the season on the injured list, there’ll be some concerns about his health, but he should still have interest from bullpen-hungry teams given the results.

Andrés Giménez Played Through Injury, Won’t Require Surgery

By Simon Hampton | October 22, 2022 at 10:43am CDT

Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez played through a non-displaced fracture in his left thumb for the past month, Zach Meisel of The Athletic reports. Unlike fellow Guardians infielder Jose Ramirez, who underwent off-season surgery for his thumb injury, Giménez won’t require surgery on his thumb.

The 24-year-old put up easily the best season of his young career, amassing 6.1 fWAR and establishing himself as a star in Cleveland. Giménez posted a .297/.371/.466 slashline with 17 home runs in 2022, as he hit the ball harder than previous seasons, while also cutting his strikeout rate by around 5% to 20.1% and lifting his walk rate to 6.1%. Long viewed as an elite gloveman at either shortstop or second base, Giménez was worth 16 Defensive Runs Saved, 12 Outs Above Average and had a 6.5 UZR. The fact he did this while playing through an injury for a chunk of the season makes it all the more impressive.

Having struggled to a .218/.282/.351 line across 210 plate appearances in 2021 after coming across from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor trade, Giménez’ breakout in 2022 certainly makes Cleveland fans feel better about that trade and gives the team yet another superstar infielder to build around. While his efforts won’t be enough to get past Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP honors this year, he’ll certainly receive a number of votes, and the Guardians will be hoping he remains in the conversation for many years to come.

Beau Burrows Elects Free Agency

By Simon Hampton | October 22, 2022 at 9:27am CDT

After being sent outright to Triple-A by the Dodgers, pitcher Beau Burrows has elected free agency, per his MLB transactions page. As Burrows has already been outrighted more than once in his career, he had the opportunity to reject the assignment and opt for free agency.

Burrows, 26, pitched the entire 2022 season at the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate Oklahoma, posting a 7.18 ERA across 100 1/3 innings. He initially worked out of the starting rotation, but his struggles saw him demoted to the bullpen. As has been the case for much of his short career, he struggled to keep the ball in the park, surrendering 18 home runs during the season. He also walked batters 20% of the time against a 12.7% strikeout rate.

The 2015 first-round pick for Detroit has had brief stints in the majors for both the Tigers and Twins in 2020 and 2021. Neither of those stints proved successful, as he pitched to a combined 10.70 ERA across 17 2/3 innings with eight home runs given up in that time.

The former top-100 prospect will hit the open market and hope to latch on with another team as a minor league depth option in 2023.

Rangers Hire Bruce Bochy As Manager

By Mark Polishuk | October 21, 2022 at 11:00pm CDT

The Rangers have hired Bruce Bochy as the club’s next manager, announcing that Bochy has signed a three-year contract.

There was increased speculation in recent days linking Bochy to the job, especially when Rangers GM Chris Young (who played under Bochy on the 2006 Padres) visited the veteran manager at his home in Nashville, rather than a formal interview. Interim Rangers manager Tony Beasley was the only other candidate known to receive an interview, further adding to the idea that the team had narrowed its focus towards bringing Bochy back to the dugout after three years away from the game.

In the team’s official press release, Bochy said he is “incredibly excited to be joining the Texas Rangers. Over the last several days, I’ve had extensive conversations with Chris Young and other individuals in the organization, and I had the chance to meet with [co-owner] Ray Davis. Their vision and commitment to putting together a club that can contend and win year in and year out is impressive, and I became convinced I wanted to be a part of that. If I was going to return to managing, it had to be the right situation. I strongly believe that to be the case with the Rangers, and I can’t wait to get started.”

Bochy brings 25 years of experience as a Major League skipper, managing the Padres from 1995-2006 and then the Giants from 2007-2019. During his long career, the 67-year-old Bochy has overseen rebuilding clubs, contenders, and teams that took dips in performance and then returned to contention — there have been enough ebbs and flows that Bochy actually has a career losing record, at 2003-2029.

However, Bochy’s resume also includes some major successes. The Giants won three World Series titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014 under Bochy’s leadership, as the “Even Year” mini-dynasty brought the organization back to championship glory for the first time since 1954. (Ironically, the 2010 Giants defeated the Rangers in the Series.) Bochy also managed another NL pennant winner in the 1998 Padres, which marked the last time that San Diego reached the World Series.

The hire represents a change in direction for the Rangers, as the club tended to hire first-time managers when Jon Daniels was in charge of baseball operations. (Interim manager Don Wakamatsu ran the team for 10 games in 2018, and was the only one of the last six Texas managers to have any previous MLB experience as a skipper.) Of course, Daniels was himself fired in August, shortly after ex-manager Chris Woodward was also let go.

Daniels’ firing reportedly even caught Young by surprise, as Young suddenly found himself in charge of an organization that is eager to start winning. Texas spent big last winter in signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray, and while the team itself felt 2023 might be a more realistic target date for a return to contention, the 2022 club didn’t show much progress in posting a 68-94 record. This clearly wasn’t good enough for Davis and the Rangers’ ownership group, who didn’t even wait until the end of the season before overhauling the front office.

With Texas sitting at six consecutive losing seasons, there is certainly pressure on Young and Bochy to start delivering some better results in 2023. The Rangers are again expected to be aggressive this winter, whether that manifests itself as more splashy free agent signings, or trades for proven veterans.

The Royals, White Sox, and Marlins are now the only teams looking to fill managerial vacancies. In addition to Bochy’s hiring, the Blue Jays (John Schneider), Angels (Phil Nevin), and Phillies (Rob Thomson) all officially signed their interim skippers from 2022 for the full-time positions.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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