Twins, Kyle Garlick Avoid Arbitration
The Twins and outfielder Kyle Garlick have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Garlick will make a salary of $750K, pre Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com.
Garlick, 31 in January, was outrighted off the Twins’ roster a year ago but earned his way back on by the middle of April. He only got into 66 games on the season due to various injuries. He went to the IL four times, with the causes ranging from a right calf strain, a left hamstring strain, a right ribcage contusion and a left wrist sprain.
Despite all those ailments, he was still able to be an above-average hitter at the plate on the season. He hit nine home runs in that limited playing time and produced an overall batting line of .233/.284/.433. That amounted to a wRC+ of 104, indicating he was 4% better than the league average hitter. The Twins likely envision him for a platoon role, as he was much better against lefties. Six of his nine homers were against southpaws and his overall production against them finished at .243/.305/.500, wRC+ of 128. Against righties, it was just .224/.263/.368 and a wRC+ of 79.
The Twins have a couple of lefties in their outfield mix in Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Given Garlick’s abilities with the platoon advantage, he could take some at-bats away from that crew from time to time. All three of them also made multiple trips to the IL in 2022 and could create a larger opening for Garlick if they got hurt. There’s also the oft-injured Byron Buxton in the mix in center, creating another reason for the Twins to keep Garlick around as depth.
Garlick qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player, his first time being eligible for the process. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Garlick for a salary of $1.1MM but he has settled for less than that. It’s not uncommon for such deals to come out at this time of year. Thursday is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not they will tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. Garlick was a candidate to be non-tendered and sent back to free agency but has instead agreed to a salary with a modest raise.
Last year’s minimum was $700K and next year’s will be $720K, meaning Garlick gets a small bump and the Twins have secured a player they could find useful at a rate barely above minimum. Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, arbitration salaries weren’t guaranteed until Opening Day but the new CBA does guarantee them as long as the player doesn’t go to a hearing. That means Garlick has that $750K locked in.
Chuck Carr Passes Away
Former big league outfielder Chuck Carr passed away yesterday, according to an announcement from his family on Facebook. He was 55 years old.
Selected by the Reds in the ninth round of the 1986 draft, he eventually made his MLB debut with the Mets in 1990. He got very brief chances in New York that year and in 1991, as well as with the Cardinals in 1992. His first real opportunity for an extended look came in 1993, after the Marlins selected him in their expansion draft.
In 142 games in the inaugural Marlins season, he hit .267/.327/330 and stole 58 bases, enough to lead the National League that year. He stayed with the Marlins for the next two seasons, never providing much power but continuing to be a speed-and-defense contributor. He stole another 32 bags in 1994 and 25 in 1995, despite both of those seasons being shortened by the 1994-1995 strike.
He spent the next couple of seasons with the Brewers and Astros, getting to play in the postseason for the first time with the latter club in 1997. In Game 3 of the NLDS against the Braves, he hit a home run off John Smoltz. Atlanta won the game and the series and Carr didn’t play in the bigs again, meaning that home run eventually proved to be the last at-bat of Carr’s MLB career, finishing it off with a bang.
Altogether, Carr got into 507 games over eight seasons, finishing with a .254 batting average, 435 hits, 81 doubles, seven triples and 13 home runs. He crossed the plate 254 times, knocked in 123 runs and swiped 144 bags.
MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones, former teammates and associates.
Cubs Release Jason Heyward
The Cubs announced Monday that outfielder Jason Heyward has officially been granted his unconditional release. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced in August that the team would release Heyward in the offseason. Heyward is still owed $22MM next year under the terms of his eight-year, $184MM contract, which covered the 2016-23 seasons.
After a lengthy rebuild where the Cubs finished last in the NL Central for five straight years from 2010 to 2014, they finally turned the corner in 2015. Their 97 victories only resulted in a third place finish in the NL Central and a Wild Card berth, though they were able to defeat the two teams that finished ahead of them in the postseason, getting by the Pirates in the WC game and then the Cardinals in the NLDS. They were then swept by the Mets in the NLCS but it was clear that the rebuild was over and it was time to contend.
As such, the 2015-16 offseason was a busy one for the club. They gave $56MM to Ben Zobrist, $32MM to John Lackey and a few one-year deals, but their big strike was Heyward. He and the club agreed to an eight-year, $184MM deal that afforded him potential opt-outs after 2018 and 2019. Those chances to opt out were especially significant given Heyward’s young age, as he was only going into his age-26 season at the time. It was a huge investment for the Cubs at a crucial time in the history of the franchise, but Heyward had proven himself to be an all-around contributor. His defense was excellent and he had hit at an above-average level, in addition to stealing over 20 bases three time in his career already.
Unfortunately, Heyward’s production slumped immediately. After hitting .293/.359/.439 with the Cardinals in 2015, he produced a batting line of .230/.306/.325 in 2016. While the former line amounted to a wRC+ of 121, or 21% above league average, his first year as a Cub resulted in a wRC+ of just 72, or 28% below league average. In spite of the down year from Heyward, the Cubs went 103-58, winning the Central by 17 1/2 games over the Cardinals. Heyward’s bat was even worse in the playoffs, as he hit just .104/.140/.167. Regardless, the Cubs went on to break their century-old curse by winning the World Series. Despite Heyward’s poor on-field results, he supposedly contributed by rousing the club’s spirits with a rain delay speech in Game 7 against Cleveland, though Cub fans can debate among themselves how much credit he deserves for that.
Heyward continued to provide quality outfield defense for years to come but his bat never really properly recovered. Since joining the Cubs, the only season in which he was above-average at the plate, according to wRC+, was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Based on that diminished performance, he never seemed a threat to trigger his opt-outs and thus stayed on with the Cubs. Over the length of the deal, the team eventually entered another rebuilding period and traded away most of their core performers from the curse-breaking years. After the brief 2020 resurgence, Heyward’s offense plummeted yet again over 2021 and 2022. With the club gradually filling out the roster with younger players that they hope to form the next competitive core, they decided it was time to move on. Heyward was on the IL due to a knee injury in August when Hoyer announced that he would be released in the offseason, which has now indeed come to pass.
Heyward will now become a free agent again, available to sign with any team in the league. Despite his poor track record in recent seasons, he could attract interest as a no-risk candidate. The Cubs will be on the hook for the $22MM remaining on his deal, meaning that any signing club would only have to pay him the league minimum, with that amount being subtracted from what the Cubs pay. Despite his extended time a big leaguer, he’s still just 33 years old.
The legacy of Heyward’s time with the Cubs is already divisive among the club’s fans and will surely continue to do so. There’s no disputing the fact that Heyward was never the superstar that the Cubs paid him to be. Some will wonder about what could have been if those resources were committed to a different player. Others will take the “Flags Fly Forever” approach and point to the World Series title as all they need to declare the deal a success. Either way, today’s move is another symbolic move towards a new era of Cubs baseball. With various trades over the years, the recent free agency of Willson Contreras and now Heyward’s release, Kyle Hendricks is left as the last member of that championship core who’s still on the roster.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Tampa Bay Rays
MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with the recent Offseason Outlook for the Rays, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-themed chat. Click here to read the transcript.
Athletics Outright Daulton Jefferies
The Athletics announced Monday that right-hander Daulton Jefferies has been outrighted to Triple-A Las Vegas. That indicates that Jefferies, who underwent Tommy John surgery in September and thoracic outlet surgery in June, had already been passed through waivers unclaimed.
Jefferies, 27, was the No. 37 overall draft pick out of Cal Berkeley back in 2016. He ranked among the organization’s top prospects throughout the entirety of his minor league tenure, making his Major League debut with a pair of innings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and also logging 15 solid innings during the 2021 campaign. Jefferies ranked as high as the Athletics’ No. 3 prospect in 2021, per Baseball America, whose scouting report on the righty lauded his plus changeup and plus command.
The 2022 season looked to be a major opportunity for Jefferies to establish himself in Oakland. The A’s shipped out veteran starters Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt as part of last offseason’s fire sale, and while Frankie Montas remained on the roster to begin the season, the widespread expectation that he’d eventually be traded as well indeed came to pass. Jefferies was among several younger options the A’s were hoping to evaluate as potential long-term fits on the starting staff, but injuries intervened.
Jefferies made just eight starts in 2022, yielding an ugly 5.72 ERA in 39 1/3 innings. This year’s 92.8 mph average fastball velocity was down a full two miles per hour from his 2020 debut, and by the end of May, he’d been diagnosed with symptoms suggesting thoracic outlet syndrome.
The combination of TOS and Tommy John surgery is a brutal one for any pitcher but is particularly ominous when the two operations are performed in such rapid succession. Matt Harvey is perhaps the most prominent recent example of a pitcher to undergo both operations, and while he resurfaced to produce some seasons as an innings eater, he quite obviously never returned to the peak form he showed early in his career. Every pitcher’s recovery is different, of course, and Jefferies could yet enjoy a recovery and carve out a nice career for himself. A return the mound will have to wait until the 2024 season at the earliest, however, which left little doubt that the A’s would eventually pass the righty through waivers.
Jefferies will spend the entire 2023 season rehabbing from the pair of surgeries, which means by the time the 2024 season rolls around, he’ll have had roughly 19 months to rehabilitate from the two operations. He’ll face an uphill climb to get back into consideration for a spot on the big league pitching staff, but the current rebuild in Oakland suggests that the A’s might still have plenty of open spots and opportunities for Jefferies even a couple years into the process.
Martin Perez Leaning Toward Accepting Qualifying Offer
Players have until tomorrow afternoon to make decisions on their one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offers, and as things currently stand, Martin Perez is “likely” to accept his offer, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi hedges by suggesting that a late change in Perez’s market could prompt him to change his thinking, but it’s still of some note to see where things stand for Perez at present, after several days of fielding interest from other teams.
Perez, 32 in April, returned to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM contract this season and quickly became one of baseball’s best bargains. The former top prospect finally delivered the type of season the Rangers envisioned during his minor league days, finishing tenth in the Majors with 196 1/3 innings and posting a 2.89 ERA that ranked 14th in the Majors. Perez’s success was due in no small part to a career-high 77% strand rate and to a level of home-run prevention (0.50 HR/9) he hasn’t shown since an injury-shortened 2015 season. However, the Rangers saw enough to make that weighty one-year offer, ostensibly comfortable with the idea that even in the event of some regression, Perez can be a serviceable innings eater in an otherwise perilously thin rotation mix.
Accepting the one-year offer wouldn’t necessarily preclude an eventual multi-year deal with the Rangers. While Perez would be locked in at $19.65MM for the 2023 season (and ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15), that agreement could be torn up in favor of a new multi-year extension. The two parties would be free to continue negotiating on a possible multi-year pact, and Texas has reportedly already put forth a two-year offer to Perez — presumably at a notably lighter annual value than the $19.65MM rate of the QO.
From a payroll vantage point, even if that $19.65MM salary is something of an “overpay” for Perez, the Rangers likely don’t mind. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects them for a payroll just shy of $122MM at the moment, so Perez would take them to about $141.5MM. Texas has run its payroll as high as $174MM, back in 2017, and that was before they had a brand new ballpark from which to draw revenue. GM Chris Young has said that payroll is expected to rise over its 2022 levels, when the Rangers’ $142MM Opening Day payroll is right in the vicinity where they’d be in the event of Perez accepting the QO.
If he does indeed accept, Perez would join Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and newly acquired Jake Odorizzi as options in the rotation. Texas is widely expected to pursue high-end starting pitching in free agency, having already been linked to the likes of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon and NPB star Kodai Senga, who is available (sans posting fee) as a true international free agent this winter.
Seth Lugo Drawing Interest As Starter
Right-hander Seth Lugo reached free agency for the first time in his career last week and has already drawn plenty of early interest as teams begin charting their offseason gameplan. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that more than a dozen teams — but not the Mets, yet — have reached out to Lugo. That shouldn’t be surprising for a consistently solid setup man, but what’s more interesting is Sammon’s note that some of those clubs have expressed interest in putting Lugo back into a rotation.
Lugo, 33 this week, has bounced between the Mets’ rotation and bullpen at various times in his career but has been a full-time reliever in each of the past two seasons. In that time, Lugo sports a 3.56 ERA with a sharp 26.6% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate and a 44% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged 94.4 mph on his heater in that time, and Lugo regularly sits near or at the very top of leaderboards for the spin rate on his curveball. Since 2018, FanGraphs’ run values peg Lugo’s fastball as the fifth-most valuable four-seamer among 279 qualified relievers; his curveball ranks seventh, just behind Ryan Pressly.
Generally speaking, Lugo has been a quietly effective member of the Mets’ bullpen for the bulk of his time as a reliever. In exactly 300 career innings out of the bullpen, the right-hander’s ERA sits at 2.91. He’s fanned 27.9% of his opponents and walked 6.9% of them, relying primarily on that fastball/curveball pairing but also mixing in a sinker, occasional slider and a very seldom used changeup (which has been particularly rare in recent seasons).
That mix of four to five pitches, however, is likely what gives some teams the belief that Lugo could find success in a return to a lengthier role. It’s also worth pointing out that while Lugo struggled immensely as a starter in 2020, his overall body of work coming out of the rotation is solid. He’s thrown 194 innings as a starting pitcher in the Majors and pitched to a 4.35 ERA in that time. His 20.9% strikeout rate as a starting pitcher is far lower than his 27.9% mark out of the ‘pen, but his 6.3% walk rate is slightly better than his 6.9% rate as a reliever.
Lugo might’ve stuck in the Mets’ rotation for the long haul were it not for some health issues that cropped up early in his big league tenure. Most notably, he was diagnosed with a “slight” tear in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament back in 2017. Any tearing of the UCL, even in minor cases, leads to fear of Tommy John surgery. However, Lugo received a platelet-rich plasma injection in the elbow at the time, opted for rest and rehab rather than surgery, and has not incurred subsequent issues with his elbow ligament. Even in 2021, when he underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, Lugo indicated that upon examining the MRI results to diagnose the spur, his surgeon “was really impressed with how [the UCL] wound up” (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo).
Lugo tossed just 65 innings in 2022 and has a career-high of 101 1/3 innings pitched — a total he reached in both 2017 and in 2018. As such, it’s fair to question just what type of workload he might be able to build up to in 2023 if he indeed opts to sign as a starting pitcher. That said, there are surely plenty of teams also eyeing Lugo in what has become his traditional late-inning setup role — one in which he’s thrived over the past several years. Interest as a starter could well prove to be a moot point, but it’s a good reminder of the outside-the-box approach that a number of clubs will take when it comes to building out their rotations.
Royals Hire Paul Hoover As Bench Coach
November 14: The Royals have made it official, announcing that Hoover has been added to Quatraro’s staff.
November 13: The Royals are hiring Paul Hoover as their new bench coach, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link). Hoover has spent the last four seasons on the Rays staff as their Major League field coordinator, so with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro now taking over as Kansas City’s manager, it makes sense that Quatraro would want a familiar face as his top lieutenant.
Filling in the holes on the Tampa coaching staff, Topkin reports that minor league catching coordinator Tomas Francisco is joining the big league staff. Triple-A manager Brady Williams is also becoming the new third base coach, as Topkin reported last week that Williams was being promoted to a then-unknown role for his first job on a Major League staff.
Hoover is a veteran of 40 Major League games, during a playing career that stretched over seven MLB seasons and 14 professional seasons in total. He began his post-playing career in 2012 as a manager for the Rays’ Gulf Coast League affiliate, and then six seasons as a catching coordinator working at all levels of Tampa Bay’s farm system before receiving a promotion to the MLB staff.
The 46-year-old Hoover replaces Pedro Grifol in the bench coach job, after Grifol left the Royals to become the new White Sox manager. It seems likely that some other changes might some to the K.C. staff, and one vacancy has yet to be filled as the Royals are looking for a new pitching coach.
The Rays often promote from within for coaching vacancies, and the 34-year-old Francisco will get his first opportunity on the big league staff. Francisco played in the Rays’ farm system from 2007-2010, and then moved onto such roles as manager of the Rays’ GCL and Dominican Summer League teams, as well as his catching coordinator position.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The 2022 Rays fell short of capturing their third straight AL East crown but still qualified for the postseason for a fourth straight season. They have a small free agent class, meaning the vast majority of the gang can be brought back for another year. However, with a huge arbitration class that featured 19 players lined up for raises, and large number of Rule 5-eligible prospects, they will be forced to make some tough decisions, a process that has already begun.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Wander Franco, SS: $176MM through 2032, including $2MM buyout on $25MM option for 2033.
- Tyler Glasnow, SP: $30.35MM through 2024.
- Manuel Margot, OF: $19MM through 2024, including $2MM buyout on $12MM mutual option for 2025.
- Brandon Lowe, IF/OF: $15MM through 2024, including $1MM buyout on $10.5MM club option for 2025. Club also has $11.5MM option for for 2026 with $500K buyout.
- Brooks Raley, RP: $5.75MM through 2023, including $1.25MM buyout on $6.5MM club option for 2024.
Option Decisions
- Kevin Kiermaier, OF: club turned down $13MM club option in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.
Total 2023 commitments: $27.85MM
Total future commitments: $248.6MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Yonny Chirinos (4.125): $1.6MM
- Yandy Diaz (4.122): $5.4MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (4.117): $4.2MM
- Shawn Armstrong (4.113): $1.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (4.070): $1.2MM
- Andrew Kittredge (4.070): $2MM
- Francisco Mejía (4.062): $2.2MM
- Jeffrey Springs (4.055): $3MM
- Harold Ramírez (3.124): $2.1MM
- Colin Poche (3.109): $1.7MM
- JT Chargois (3.101): $1MM
- Pete Fairbanks (3.057): $1.5MM
- Christian Bethancourt (3.038): $1.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (3.000): $1.1MM
- Jason Adam (2.132): $1.9MM
- Randy Arozarena (2.129): $4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Choi, Chirinos, Yarbrough, Armstrong, Kittredge, Mejía, Poche, Chargois
Free Agents
The Rays entered 2022 having won the division title in 2020 and 2021, looking to be strong yet again. It was a bit of a disappointing season though, with the club bitten pretty hard by the injury bug, particularly on the pitching staff. Despite various ailments, they still snuck into the playoffs by going 86-76 and taking the final Wild Card spot in the first year of the 12-team expanded playoffs. With much of the same roster in place for next year, it’s possible that the club will be better in 2023 just by having better luck on the health front. However, as is always the case with the Rays, payroll concerns might lead to some notable subtractions and creative solutions, especially with the loaded arbitration class.
Since Tampa’s decisions are usually motivated by money in some way, let’s talk turkey up front. Roster Resource estimates that the club’s 2023 payroll is currently slated to be around $72MM. The club had an Opening Day figure of $84MM in 2022, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A surprise splurge can’t be totally ruled out, since they reportedly made an offer to Freddie Freeman a year ago. However, that didn’t come to fruition and they ended up making modest signings while trading away arb-eligible players players like Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle and Jordan Luplow. If they are planning to spend at a similar level next year, they won’t have much to work with, though they could give themselves more breathing room by non-tendering or trading some of that big arb class. They’ve already gotten some of that work done, having traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates, as well as putting Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn on waivers. Those latter two elected free agency and Anderson has already signed with Atlanta.
The future offseason moves will hinge on where they subtract and where they add. Pitching seems to be especially in flux, with the club reportedly discussing Ryan Yarbrough, Shawn Armstrong and Yonny Chirinos in recent trades. None of those pitchers are essential pieces of the pitching staff, meaning the Rays are in a position to make some minor moves and still wind up in a decent position overall. Even with Shane Baz undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss all of 2023, the rotation still consists of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in the front four spots.
Yarbrough is a candidate for the fifth spot, but he has a 4.90 ERA over the past two seasons combined. If they pull the trigger on a deal, that would leave a hole, but they have other options to fill it. Luis Patiño was limited by injuries in 2022 but is just 23 years old and could still establish himself as a valuable starter. There’s also Taj Bradley, considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He finished his season with 12 Triple-A starts and should be in position to make his MLB debut in 2023. Even if no one steps up to secure the final rotation spot or an injury creates another hole, the Rays have shown they’re not afraid to rely on bullpen games to grind through parts of the schedule. A free-agent addition can’t be ruled out, as the club signed Corey Kluber last year for a modest one-year, $8MM deal. However, they also have enough in-house options that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them spend elsewhere.
The bullpen is also in pretty good shape, unsurprising given Tampa’s penchant for finding unheralded arms and helping them find their best selves. Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, J.P. Feyereisen, Jalen Beeks, JT Chargois all posted ERAs under 3.00 in 2022 and should form a solid backbone for the relief corps. A trade can never be ruled out with Tampa, but none of that group is projected to make more than a few million. Given the club’s knack for finding hidden gems, it’s possible they’ll make another low-key signing or two in order to supplement the group. Raley, for instance, posted a 4.78 ERA with Houston in 2021 as a 33-year-old before signing a $10MM deal with the Rays. He then earned a 2.68 ERA in Tampa this year. Adam, the owner of a 1.56 ERA through 63 1/3 innings with the Rays this past season, is an even more extreme example; he signed for just $900K prior to the 2022 season.
One area without a solid foundation is the catching mix. The Rays picked up a club option on Mike Zunino for 2022, but he performed poorly over 36 games before requiring season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. To fill that hole, the Rays acquired Christian Bethancourt in a trade with the A’s. The veteran was playing in the big leagues for the first time since 2017, having been bouncing around various organization, including a stint in the KBO. He ended up having the best season of his career, hitting .252/.283/.409 for a wRC+ of 101. He also got positive marks for his glovework, leading to 1.9 fWAR on the year in just 101 games. He can be retained via a modest arbitration raise, but do the Rays want to go into the season relying on a 31-year-old journeyman with an inconsistent track record, even if his 2022 was solid?
Francisco Mejía and René Pinto are also on the 40-man roster to give them some depth, but the Rays could still look to address the catching mix in some way. They don’t seem likely to spend at top-of-the-market rates for (e.g. Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez), but there will be more affordable options, such as Omar Narvaez, Austin Hedges, Gary Sanchez, Tucker Barnhart and Roberto Perez. The trade market should also give them access to Oakland’s Sean Murphy or one of Toronto’s many backstops, though the latter scenario is likely difficult to line up for the AL East competitors.
For the middle infield, the Rays will be hoping for better health on the injury front in 2023. Shortstop Wander Franco and second baseman Brandon Lowe each missed significant time and neither got into more than 83 games on the year. Franco, of course, was considered the top prospect in the game and had a strong debut in 2021. Only 20 years old at the time, he then signed an 11-year extension to be the club’s shortstop and face of the franchise for over a decade. The first season was frustrating because of the injuries, but he’ll look to bounce back next year. Lowe is now 28 and has just two guaranteed years left on his contract, though there’s also a club option for 2025. You can never rule out a trade when it comes to the Rays, but given his down year, it would be selling low to make a move at this time.
For the rest of the infield, Choi has already been subtracted at first base but they still have many options for the corner spots and utility/bench roles. Yandy Diaz is coming off the best offensive season of his career and should have one spot locked down. He’s mostly played third base but can move across to first on occasion. Then there’s Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, Harold Ramírez, Taylor Walls, Vidal Bruján, Luke Raley and Miles Mastrobuoni on the 40-man roster. Not yet on the 40-man are highly-touted prospects like Kyle Manzardo, Xavier Edwards, Curtis Mead and Greg Jones. Those latter three will need to be selected this week to be protected from being scooped in the Rule 5 draft. That will surely lead to some classic Tampa roster shuffling in the days to come, but they should finish with many intriguing options for filling out the infield picture in 2023.
In the outfield, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot and Jose Siri are the three on-paper regulars, now that David Peralta is a free agent. Some of the utility infield options from the last paragraph will be in the mix for playing time on the turf as well, alongside former top prospect Josh Lowe and waiver pickup Bligh Madris. As said previously, no one can confidently say the Rays won’t trade from this mix. They’ve previously moved solid regulars like Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows, after all. While most of these current Rays have yet to reach arbitration, Arozarena just qualified as a Super Two and will now go through the arb process for the first of four times. Margot still has two years and $19MM left on his extension, making him the most expensive of the bunch. For now, they have plenty of options, but that can change in a hurry.
The path forward for the Rays is very unpredictable in terms of the specifics but it seems like it will follow a familiar path in a broad sense. Given their low-spending ways and roster crunch, they will surely be very active. They’ve already flipped Choi and cut Anderson, with more of those kinds of moves surely in the cards. Some of their arb-eligible players will likely be dealt or non-tendered, though there are so many options that even the Rays themselves can’t yet be sure just who’ll change hands.
Once the dust settles on those, they should have a few dollars to spend on modest additions to fill out whatever holes are created. It might not be as exciting as a team that’s targeting Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom in free agency, but this is how the Rays operate and they do it well. Even in an injury-marred 2022, they still grabbed their fourth straight postseason berth. Given that most of their key pieces are still in place next year, a bit more luck on the health front should have them back in the playoff mix yet again, though likely with more than a handful of new names and new faces.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 11-14-22. Click here to read the transcript.
The Opener: Approaching Deadlines, Montero, Orioles
With more offseason deadlines on the horizon, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Qualifying offer, Rule 5 deadlines likely to spur movement
Two major offseason deadlines are coming tomorrow, which will likely be the focus of much of the offseason movement that happens today. Qualifying offer recipients must accept or reject the QO by 4pm EST tomorrow, and 40-man rosters must be set ahead of the Rule 5 Draft by 6pm EST tomorrow. The QO deadline could certainly see some recipients with less expected earning power, such as Joc Pederson or Martin Perez, either accept the QO or negotiate a multi-year deal with their previous team — perhaps after initially accepting, as Jose Abreu did during the 2019-20 offseason. While the names weighing the QO might garner more attention, it’s the Rule 5 deadline that will lead to more immediate action. Teams need to make room on their 40-man rosters for any prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft, which will require adding them to the 40-man roster. That forthcoming wave of additions will lead to a slew of players being designated for assignment, placed on waivers and perhaps traded, as teams create space on the fringes of their roster. This could also lead to some early non-tenders of arbitration-eligible players, as the Nov. 18 non-tender deadline is quickly approaching, too. As Mark Polishuk noted last night, the Rays figure to be one of the most proactive teams in terms of clearing up their 40-man roster in the coming days, having already shipped first baseman Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh last week.
2. Montero contract provides another data point on the relief market
In Friday’s Opener, I discussed the surprisingly strong relief market that relief pitchers have found this offseason, and how it could translate to the other relievers on the market. Rafael Montero indeed secured a third year on his new contract with the Astros, as predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, but his $34.5MM guarantee handily exceeded expectations. If that amount doesn’t seem particularly striking to you, consider righty Kendall Graveman, another former Astros/Mariners setup man, signed a three-year $24MM deal last winter despite being a year younger at the time of signing. Montero stands as a third pricey relief re-signing, to go with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez.
3. How aggressive will the Orioles be this offseason?
Orioles general manager Mike Elias pledged in August that payroll will rise in 2023 — though it’d be hard for it to decline much over its 2022 levels — which prompted many O’s fans to dream of marquee free-agent splashes as the team emerges from its rebuild. Over the weekend, however, Elias stated that the Orioles will not “go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” which casts doubt on whether the team will jump right into the deep end of the free-agent pool. At present, John Means‘ $2.975MM salary is the only guarantee on the Orioles’ books, though between arbitration projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster, they project for a total of about $41MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s ample space for multiple additions to the payroll, then, be it via free agency or perhaps by way of acquiring an established veteran in exchange for some minor league talent. With an impressive young core featuring the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — plus righty Grayson Rodriguez and several more top prospects looming — the Orioles appear on the cusp of a return to contention — if they can make the right moves to supplement that group. With so much payroll space available and a deep farm from which to trade for Major League talent, they’re one of the most fascinating clubs of the offseason.