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Red Sox Sign Catching Instructor Jason Varitek To Extension, Expected To Retain Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox have agreed to a three-year contract extension with catching instructor/game-planning coordinator Jason Varitek, his wife Catherine announced this morning (Twitter link). Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Varitek will return in the same capacity for 2023; more broadly, Speier notes the entire coaching staff is expected back next season.

That’s not especially surprising, as manager Alex Cora announced immediately after the season ended he hoped to retain his staff. It seemed the biggest question was whether bench coach Will Venable might depart for greener pastures. Venable has long been viewed as a viable managerial candidate, and he indeed drew some attention for the Royals job that eventually went to former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. With all the managerial vacancies now filled and no anticipated further turnover this offseason — Astros skipper Dusty Baker is on an expiring contract but expected to re-sign with Houston — Venable seems headed for a third season as bench coach.

Varitek, a 15-year MLB veteran who spent his entire big league career in Boston, was a three-time All-Star during his playing days. He retired after the 2011 campaign but has remained in the organization in various non-playing capacities. That includes his time on the coaching staff as game planning coordinator, which he first assumed over the 2020-21 offseason.

It’ll be Cora’s third consecutive season managing in Boston and his fifth overall. Aside from Venable, his top returning staffers will be second-year hitting coach Peter Fatse and fourth-year pitching coach Dave Bush.

White Sox To Part Ways With Hitting Coach Frank Menechino

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The White Sox landed on their new manager yesterday, agreeing to a contract with Pedro Grifol. The team hasn’t officially announced the hiring of the now-former Royals bench coach, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets they’ll do so tomorrow.

With Grifol replacing Tony La Russa, the Sox are expected to overhaul their coaching staff. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported yesterday that a number of coaches weren’t being asked back, and reports last night indicated that Charlie Montoyo was joining the staff as bench coach. The status of La Russa’s bench coach, Miguel Cairo, remains unclear, but a few other members of the staff are known to be departing the organization.

Hitting coach Frank Menechino and catching instructor Jerry Narron will not return in 2023, reports James Fegan of the Athletic. That’s also true of third base coach Joe McEwing, as first reported by Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Previous reports have suggested that pitching coach Ethan Katz and assistant pitching coach Curt Hasler would be retained. The futures for Cairo, assistant hitting coach Howie Clark and first base coach Daryl Boston haven’t been publicly revealed, but Fegan suggests the departures could go beyond Menchino, McEwing and Narron.

Of the known departures, none figures to be more significant than that of Menechino. The 51-year-old has been the hitting coach on the South Side for the past three seasons. He’d also spent two years as the hitting coach of the Marlins and coached in the Yankees and Chicago farm systems. He’d held the hitting coach position under both Rick Renteria and La Russa.

The White Sox were a generally successful offensive team during Menechino’s tenure. Dating back to the start of the 2020 campaign, they rank ninth in run-scoring and park-adjusted hitting (105 wRC+). The 2022 results were more middle-of-the-pack, though, with Chicago finishing 19th in runs. They ranked 18th with a .310 on-base percentage and a .387 slugging mark, and only the Tigers drew fewer walks.

As with any coach, Menechino certainly doesn’t deserve all the credit for the club’s above-average 2020-21 success nor all the blame for their disappointing 2022 numbers. Still, it’s not uncommon for an incoming manager to make some adjustments to the coaching staff, and it seems likely the Sox will hope a new voice can coax a bit more patient offensive approach. Chicago’s roster is built around a number of aggressive hitters, but the team finished with the second-highest rate of chases on pitches outside the strike zone while checking in closer to average at swinging at pitches within the zone.

Turning to the other staff changes, McEwing and Narrow are both longtime big league coaches. McEwing has coached in the Sox organization since 2008 and has been on the MLB staff since 2012. He spent a few years as bench coach between stints coaching third base. Narron has previously been a bench coach in Arizona and Boston. He’d been on Chicago’s staff for the past two seasons.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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Baseball’s youngest team won the AL Central, defeated the Rays in the Wild Card Series, and came within a game of advancing to the ALCS.  The future is now for the Guardians, as their new young core has already matured into a contending roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $119MM through 2028
  • Myles Straw, OF: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RP: $16.5MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)

Total 2023 commitments: $19.3MM
Total future commitments: $157.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

2022 might have been the greatest triumph yet for Cleveland’s vaunted player development system.  After an 80-82 record in 2021 and a pretty quiet offseason, it seemed as if the Guardians were poised to take a step back, yet it was clear that the front office had plenty of faith in its young players.  A whopping 17 different Guardians players made their Major League debuts in 2022, ranging from Rookie-of-the-Year contender Steven Kwan, postseason hero Oscar Gonzalez, and rotation regular Konnor Pilkington, to top-100 prospects like Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and Tyler Freeman.  These rookies were able to patch roster holes or even fill them outright, while a number of other pre-arb players also stepped up with big seasons.

The Guards were certainly helped by underwhelming performances by the other four AL Central teams, as well as a lot of good fortune in avoiding injuries.  However, Cleveland’s recipe of strong pitching, excellent defense, speed, contact hitting, and station-to-station baseball made the club a handful for anyone.  The only thing lacking was power, as the Guardians finished 29th of 30 teams in home runs (127) and 28th in Isolated Slugging (.129).

With this in mind, it isn’t quite as simple as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti just acquiring a couple of sluggers this winter and calling it a day.  For one, power costs money, and payroll is always a concern in Cleveland.  Roster Resource projects the Guardians for roughly $72.2MM in committed salaries heading into 2023 (including arbitration estimates), and while the club’s spending topped $146MM as recently as 2018, that was understood even at the time to be a temporary splurge.  With the pandemic impacting revenues, Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll in 2021 didn’t even top the $50MM threshold. They bounced back a bit and opened this year a bit shy of $70MM but still didn’t approach franchise-record levels.

In short, don’t expect the Guardians to suddenly become big spenders just because they’re back in contention, or just because David Blitzer became a minority owner of the franchise this past summer.  But, ownership increasing payroll to even the $85MM-$90MM range would certainly help the Guards add talent — or, the front office might have to get creative with how they re-allocate that $72.2MM.

This is why Amed Rosario might find himself a trade candidate.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, Rosario’s projected $9MM arbitration salary could be a little steep for a team that has a wealth of intriguing middle-infield prospects.  The Guardians have certainly shown they’re willing to put their trust into younger players, so if they think any of Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, or Jose Tena are ready for prime time, Rosario may become expendable.

Even in an offseason where Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson will all be hitting free agency, Rosario holds quite a bit of value as a trade chip.  Many teams obviously aren’t willing to give out the nine-figure contracts it will take to sign any of those top shortstops, and would thus have more interest in Rosario even just for one year (since he is set for free agency next winter).  Since Rosario could also theoretically be moved to second base, that only increases his list of potential landing spots.  On paper, the Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, Giants, and Orioles are all plausible fits for at least short-term middle infield help.

If Rosario was dealt, Andres Gimenez could potentially slide over to shortstop, or just continue his Gold Glove-winning reign at second base.  Gimenez’s advanced metrics indicate he is likely due for some offensive regression in 2023, but he was so great last year (.297/.377/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals over 557 plate appearances) he’d be a dangerous hitter if he even approaches his 2022 numbers.

Gimenez will have one middle-infield position locked up, so where else could the Guardians add a bat?  Naturally, there isn’t any issue at third base with superstar Jose Ramirez, and the Guards also seem set with Kwan in left field and Josh Naylor at first base/DH.  Naylor hit well in his first season back from major leg surgery, and the Canadian could blossom into even more of a dangerous slugger now that he is further removed from his injury.

Finding another first base/DH type to share the two positions with Naylor seems like the most obvious spot for a new hitter.  The Guardians were hoping Franmil Reyes would fill this role after his 30-homer season in 2021, yet Reyes struggled so badly that Cleveland designated him for assignment in August, allowing the Cubs to claim him on waivers.  A right-handed hitter would pair best with the left-handed hitting Naylor, and depending on how much the Guardians have to spend, a free agent like Jose Abreu would be a very good fit as both a productive bat and a veteran clubhouse leader.  Beyond just the first base position, Trey Mancini and Mitch Haniger can also play the outfield, or the Guards could pivot to more of a DH-only type like J.D. Martinez or Nelson Cruz.

Cleveland could aim to add more pop in the outfield, though the team will have to weigh the cost of adding hitting against possibly decreasing an excellent defensive unit.  Gonzalez may be the weakest link in this regard — he isn’t as accomplished a fielder as Kwan or Myles Straw and he had a very low 3.9% walk rate while benefitting from a .345 BABIP in his rookie season.

Then again, Gonzalez has more offensive upside than Straw, a Gold Glover and Fielding Bible Award-winning center fielder who was one of the game’s worst hitters in 2022.  Of all qualified batters, only Jonathan Schoop had a lower wRC+ than Straw’s 64, as he hit only .221/.291/.273 over 596 PA.  Straw had excellent speed and made plenty of contact, though his .261 BABIP was less a function of bad luck and more about Straw’s near-total lack of hard contact.  Getting even close to league-average offense (as Straw did with his 97 wRC+ in 2021) would make him a very valuable addition to any lineup, which was the Guardians’ logic when they signed him to a five-year extension back in April.

Jones or Will Brennan are on hand for more outfield at-bats, plus George Valera is yet another top-50 prospect who’s not far from his first taste of the majors.  That gives the Guardians some cover if they did float Straw or Gonzalez in trade talks, provided these players weren’t shopped for another outfielder altogether.  Speculatively, Straw could be shopped to a team looking to upgrade its outfield defense, while Gonzalez is the kind of MLB-ready, controllable bat that could appeal to a lot of teams.

Speculatively, Gonzalez could fit as part of a trade package Cleveland might offer to the Athletics in exchange for Sean Murphy.  The Guardians’ interest in Murphy dates back at least to the trade deadline, and while Murphy would be a great addition to many rosters, he’d be a particularly ideal match in Cleveland considering the team’s focus on defense and game-calling from the catcher position.  Not only is Murphy a strong defensive backstop, he is also an accomplished hitter. He’s also controllable through the 2025 season and projected for just a $3.5MM salary next year.

Between center field and catcher, the Guardians were basically playing with only seven lineup spots, given how little Straw and the Austin Hedges/Luke Maile tandem (with a few games from Sandy Leon, Bo Naylor, and Bryan Lavastida) provided at the plate in 2022.  Since Hedges is a free agent and Maile is a non-tender candidate, the catching position represents the cleanest way for the Guards to simply add a better hitter to the mix.  Plus, the younger Naylor brother is an interesting prospect in his own right, so Cleveland might feel it already has an in-house offensive upgrade.

If the Guardians do trust Naylor, they could roll with a Naylor/Maile platoon in 2023, or even re-sign Hedges for platoon duty and either let Maile go or try to retain him on a new minor league contract.  This might be Cleveland’s strategy if other bats were acquired at, say, DH or right field, as the Guards might then feel more comfortable about sticking with defense behind the plate and hoping Naylor could become the latest breakout rookie.

Murphy isn’t the only external option, of course, even though quality bats are rather scarce at the catcher position.  Free agent Willson Contreras will be too expensive, though Christian Vazquez might conceivably fall within their price range.  On the trade front, the A’s and Blue Jays are the top options for available catchers, and the Guardians have enough interesting players in both the farm system and on the MLB roster to perhaps outbid many other catcher-needy teams.

The Guardians could also conceivably trade from their rotation depth, with Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac perhaps expendable at the back of the rotation given how Cleveland has a number of young arms ready to start banking Major League innings.  With an eye towards arbitration costs, it wouldn’t be a shock if one of Cal Quantrill (projected $6MM) or Shane Bieber ($10.7MM) were dealt, though those two are more trusted members of the starting five.

Bieber, naturally, has been included in a lot of trade speculation as his price tag continues to rise.  However, since he is still controlled through the 2024 season, he probably won’t be shopped until the 2023 trade deadline at the absolute earliest, and that would likely only happen if the Guardians fell out of the playoff race.  Pilkington, Cody Morris, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, and top prospect Daniel Espino are among the many young starters who could be rotation options for 2023, yet using those youngsters to replace Bieber’s ace-level production is a taller order than replacing the more modest contributions of Civale or Plesac.

Cleveland’s ability to find and develop pitching provides the team with some rare flexibility in deciding whether or not to trade from its surplus, and it is possible the Guardians might just stand pat this winter, at least in terms of any major deals.  As noted, the Guards enjoyed quite a bit of good health in 2022, so they might want to retain their pitching depth as protection against the injury bug returning with a vengeance.

This depth filters down to the bullpen, as the Guardians could reinforce their already-strong relief corps with some of these pitchers coming up from the minors.  Headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase, the Cleveland bullpen was one of baseball’s best last season, and not a lot of tinkering might need to be done.  Though the relievers gained some valuable experience in both the regular season and during the playoffs, it’s still a young bullpen that could do with a veteran arm, similar to the role that Bryan Shaw filled in 2022.  Though Shaw had a disappointing year and was outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the Guards might still pursue a reunion on a minor league contract, given the respect he’s earned as a clubhouse leader to his younger teammates.

Speaking of leadership, it has already been confirmed Terry Francona will be returning for at least one more season as Cleveland’s manager.  Physical problems kept Francona away from the team for big portions of both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, yet the veteran skipper returned to guide his young roster to the ninth winning season of his decade-long run in Cleveland.

With Francona’s health issues potentially heralding the end of his time in the dugout at some point in the not too distant future, he would surely love to capture one more World Series ring (and break another franchise’s title drought) before calling it a career.  The fact that a championship is now a plausible goal is a sign of how well the team has reloaded in just a year’s time, though the Guards will also have to caution against growing pains for their many rookies.  Some canny offseason additions can help protect against any sophomore slumps, and if enough youngsters continue to develop and Ramirez continues to deliver MVP-level production, the Guardians look like they’ll be dangerous again in 2023.

Jonathan Schoop To Exercise Player Option With Tigers

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Tigers second baseman Jonathan Schoop intends to exercise a $7.5MM player option for the 2023 season, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. It’ll be the second season of the two-year extension he signed towards the end of the 2021 campaign.

There was never much doubt about the decision, as Schoop wouldn’t have topped $7.5MM in free agency after a dismal offensive season. The 31-year-old hit only .202/.239/.322 with 11 home runs through 510 plate appearances. A meager .234 batting average on balls in play was a part of that disappointing year, but it also demonstrated the downside of Schoop’s extreme low-walk approach. Of the 132 hitters with 500+ trips to the dish, Schoop was easily the worst at reaching base. Cody Bellinger, owner of a .265 OBP, had the second-lowest mark among that group and still topped Schoop by .026 points.

To his credit, Schoop did perform excellently on the other side of the ball. He played a bit more than 1100 innings at the keystone and drew unanimously excellent marks from public metrics. Defensive Runs Saved pegged Schoop as eight runs better than the average second baseman, while Statcast credited him with a whopping 20 runs above average. No other second baseman was credited with more than +9 runs, per Statcast. Schoop was a finalist for the American League’s Gold Glove Award at second base, but the honor went to Cleveland’s Andrés Giménez.

It’s hard to envision Schoop performing at that level defensively again, but he has a career track record of strong marks for his work at second base. He’s shown more offensively in the past, including a combined .278/.321/.443 showing between 2020-21. Schoop will need to bounce back at the dish if he’s to remain a regular for manager A.J. Hinch, but he’ll be in an uncertain infield mix. Javier Báez will play shortstop, and the Tigers figure to give Spencer Torkelson another shot to seize first base. Detroit could non-tender third baseman Jeimer Candelario rather than retain him on a projected $7MM arbitration salary, while Willi Castro and Harold Castro look like utility options. Prospect Ryan Kreidler debuted late in 2022 and could be in the mix at either second or third base, and Detroit figures to make at least one addition from outside the organization.

With Schoop triggering his option and reliever Andrew Chafin bypassing a $6.5MM player option in favor of free agency, the Tigers are up to roughly $78MM in 2023 commitments. Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz would add roughly $28.8MM to that total, but Detroit could knock off more than half that tab by making some reasonable non-tender decisions. The Tigers opened the 2022 campaign with a payroll around $135MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so there should be ample flexibility for the front office. It’s the first offseason at the helm for president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who came over from the Giants to replace former GM Al Avila.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers won the most regular-season games in the franchise’s 133-year history, cruising to a 111-51 record.  Unfortunately, that success made it all the more disappointing when the Dodgers didn’t even win a playoff round, falling to the Padres in four games in the NLDS.  Los Angeles now faces the possible departure of several key members of the roster, yet also a potential opportunity to reload with more premium talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mookie Betts, OF: $320MM through 2032 ($99MM is deferred)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $135MM through 2027 ($50MM is deferred)
  • Chris Taylor, IF/OF: $45MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout of club option for 2026)
  • Max Muncy, IF: $13.5MM through 2023 ($10MM club option for 2024, no buyout)
  • Blake Treinen, RP: $8MM through 2023 (conditional club option for 2024 based on Treinen’s health)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $7MM through 2024 ($3.5MM club option for 2025)
  • Daniel Hudson, RP: $6.5MM through 2023 ($6.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Note: Trevor Bauer is suspended without pay for the 2023 season, though Bauer is appealing the league’s ruling

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The price of being a perennial contender is that anything short of a World Series title feels like a letdown, though the Dodgers’ record has been so overwhelmingly good over the last decade that it’s hard to say that the franchise isn’t moving in the right direction.  This is the argument president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made in his after-season press conference, and yet it is also an argument Friedman has had to make in seven of his eight seasons running the L.A. front office.  Still, the 2020 World Series title is very recent evidence that Friedman’s approach can indeed get the Dodgers over the finish line, and the team will certainly go into 2023 as one of the favorites to capture another Commissioner’s Trophy.

Dave Roberts is coming back as manager, which isn’t surprising since the contract extension Roberts last spring hasn’t even officially begun.  Friedman also implied that the entire coaching staff will return, unless any coaches are offered promotions with other teams.  Adding to the “getting the band back together” feeling is the fact that the Dodgers already addressed some winter business by reaching extensions with Max Muncy, Daniel Hudson, Austin Barnes, and Blake Treinen during the season.

Of these new deals, Barnes is the only one who received a multi-year guarantee.  The Muncy, Hudson, and Treinen extensions all essentially amounted to the Dodgers guaranteeing a pre-existing club option for 2023, while adding another club option for 2024.  There was still some risk in these decisions, given that L.A. has now committed $14.5MM to two relievers who combined for 29 1/3 innings last season — Hudson was pitching very well before tearing his ACL in June, while Treinen barely pitched at all due to persistent shoulder injuries.

Muncy had an unusual season, and was undoubtedly impacted by a partial UCL tear in his left elbow suffered on the last day of the 2021 regular season.  Muncy opted against surgery, and then struggled to a .161/.310/.303 slash line over his first 339 plate appearances before turning it around to hit .247/.358/.500 in his final 226 PA.  His extension was announced a few weeks into that late-season hot streak, indicating that the Dodgers are confident that Muncy can get back to his old form when fully healthy.

Even with these four potential free agents locked up, Los Angeles still has a long list of names set to hit the open market, and even more notables that could also become free agents depending on club options or non-tenders.  Muncy’s extension may be seen as a hedge against an infield overhaul, considering that Trea Turner will be one of the headliners of the 2022-23 free agent class, backup Hanser Alberto is probably unlikely to be retained, and the Dodgers face a $14MM decision on whether or not to exercise the club option of longtime staple Justin Turner.  The third baseman turns 38 in November and is coming off an inconsistent 2022 season,

The first base and catcher positions are locked down by Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.  Muncy can play second or third base, and Gavin Lux can continue at second base or slide over to shortstop if Turner departs.  Edwin Rios has been plagued with injuries over the last two seasons, but he has shown enough flashes of hitting potential and the Dodgers will likely tender him a contract and hope he can contribute to the corner infield mix (though like Muncy and Freeman, Rios is also a left-handed hitter).  Top prospect Miguel Vargas made his MLB debut last season and also figures to be a factor in left field or third base, even if the Dodgers may not be sure about his eventual position in the majors.  Super-utilityman Chris Taylor can fill in all over the infield, though Taylor was mostly deployed as an outfielder last season and is looking to bounce back after a disappointing season.

Many teams would be quite satisfied with a starting infield of Smith, Freeman, Muncy, Lux, and a Vargas/Rios platoon at third base, with Taylor as a multi-position backup and touted rookies Michael Busch (a top-100 prospect in his own right) and Jacob Amaya knocking on the door for their own Major League debuts.  But…this is the Dodgers we’re talking about.  They prize roster flexibility, and they have the financial resources and minor league depth to pursue just about every free agent or trade candidate on the market.

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers exercise Justin Turner’s option, re-sign Trea Turner, and just run things back with the core infield of an 111-win team.  If Trea Turner departed, Los Angeles could certainly turn to one of their other star shortstops in the free agent market, and there have been some rumblings that the Dodgers are looking at Carlos Correa as their top alternative at the shortstop position.

L.A. could also potentially upgrade the infield by adding to the outfield, such as a scenario where Mookie Betts is suddenly a big part of the second base mix when Aaron Judge is signed to play right field.  The Dodgers (as is their nature with every top free agent) have at least some interest in Judge, and while both Judge or Betts could be in the same outfield if one of them occasionally plays center field, returning Betts to his old second base position would certainly bolster the infield in the event of Trea Turner’s possible departure.

Because this is the Dodgers, a scenario can’t be ruled out where both Judge and Trea Turner are signed, with Los Angeles flexing its payroll muscles once again.  That said, a case could be made that the Dodgers might see this winter as a chance to reset their luxury tax penalties.  A lot of money is coming off the books in the form of the in-house free agents, leaving around $165.4MM committed to the 2023 roster in dollars, and a projected Competitive Balance Tax bill of just under $184MM.

Obviously, the Dodgers don’t have any qualms about paying CBT penalties in general, as they’ve soared over the tax line in each of the last two seasons.  Three consecutive years of tax overages increases the penalties, however, both in terms of actual money paid on the tax bill, and (most importantly for the Dodgers) continued impact on the compensation both received and handed out regarding qualifying-offer free agents.  For instance, Trea Turner will surely be issued a QO and reject it to test the market, and if signs elsewhere, Los Angeles will receive only a pick after the fourth round of the draft as compensation.  Likewise, if the Dodgers signed Judge or another player who turned down a QO, the Dodgers would have to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft, as well as $1MM in international bonus pool funds.

All of these penalties would disappear next winter if the Dodgers got under the $233MM luxury tax threshold in 2023, and the roughly $49MM of current tax wiggle room would allow for L.A. to still make some necessary roster additions.  The Dodgers can also carve out more room by trades or non-tenders, and Cody Bellinger’s projected $18.1MM salary stands out in this regard.

Since winning the NL MVP Award in 2019, Bellinger has hit only .203/.272/.376 with 41 homers over 1143 plate appearances.  His offense particularly cratered following shoulder surgery during the 2020-21 offseason, and other injuries have also contributed to Bellinger’s sharp decline at the plate.  Though he is still an excellent defensive center fielder and a strong baserunner, that’s a skillset that the Dodgers can replace for a lot less than $18.1MM.  (Speculatively, Friedman might look to an old friend from his days in Tampa Bay now that former Gold Glover Kevin Kiermaier is entering free agency.)

There is a chance Bellinger isn’t tendered a contract and then re-signed to a lower salary, but of course he could also pursue a change of scenery with another team looking to buy low on a former MVP.  Friedman is likely to explore trade possibilities for Bellinger before the non-tender deadline, but apart from a scenario where Bellinger is swapped for another team’s undesirable contract, interested clubs might see if they can wait out the Dodgers and then pounce on Bellinger if he is indeed non-tendered.

Despite Bellinger’s struggles, his departure would leave a hole in the Los Angeles outfield.  Betts remains the cornerstone piece, and journeyman Trayce Thompson unexpectedly broke out in a huge way after being acquired in an under-the-radar pickup from the Tigers in June.  Thompson played so well that he certainly has earned a place on the 2023 team, but without much of a track record of consistent MLB success, the Dodgers might still consider him more of a part-timer than as a sure thing for everyday action.  If nothing else, Thompson might at least take over Bellinger’s role as a defensive standout, with upside at the plate.

As noted, Taylor is looking to rebound from a disappointing season that was plagued by injuries.  Joey Gallo didn’t hit well after joining the Dodgers and probably won’t be re-signed.  Kevin Pillar missed almost the entire season due to a fractured shoulder but might be a better bet to return as a depth option, since he’d only require a minor league contract.  Lux, Vargas, and rookie James Outman are other in-house names for at least occasional outfield duty, plus Busch and another top prospect in Andy Pages should get involved in the outfield mix.

Even with all these names available, it seems as if there’s enough instability here that it seems likelier that the Dodgers make a notable outside acquisition to address the outfield rather than the infield, as the infield can be more easily addressed just by “only” exercising Justin Turner’s option.  Whether that outside acquisition is a blockbuster like a Judge signing or a major trade, or maybe just more lower-tier moves to add another regular to the lineup, expect Los Angeles to check into all possibilities.

The same can be said about the starting rotation, as again, the Dodgers have some well-regarded prospects in Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot who made their Major League debuts in 2022.  Just slotting Grove and Pepiot behind Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin doesn’t leave much depth, however, and L.A. will certainly want more veteran experience in the starting five.

Clayton Kershaw rejoined the Dodgers on a one-year, $17MM free agent contract last season, signing the day after the lockout ended.  Kershaw said he took the time provided by the lockout to both heal up some injuries and consider his future, and the result was an excellent (if injury-shortened) 2022 campaign.  Even as Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and health questions may limit him to around the 124 innings he has averaged over the last two seasons, Kershaw has still looked like one of the league’s best pitchers when he’s on the mound.  Barring a change of heart, Kershaw looks like a good bet to return to action in 2023, and will almost certainly do so either with the Dodgers or perhaps his hometown Rangers (who have big need in the rotation and a lot of money to offer).

Re-signing Kershaw would check off one major box for the Dodgers’ offseason, but they also have to address the potential losses of Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney.  Two lower-cost free agent signings from the 2021-22 offseason, Anderson pitched so well that he made the All-Star team and made himself a borderline qualifying-offer candidate, while Heaney missed time with shoulder problems but still contributed a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 innings.

Heaney’s injuries might increase chances of a return to Los Angeles, as he might not require a multi-year contract, and the Dodgers could use Pepiot and Grove as backup plans if Heaney has to miss more time.  One would imagine L.A. would also want to retain Anderson given how he broke out in Dodger Blue, but the Dodgers might also prefer to look for “the next” Tyler Anderson, i.e. another relatively inexpensive veteran who might blossom under the watch of pitching coach Mark Prior.

Between finding these hidden gems and their ability to draft and develop homegrown pitching talent, the Dodgers have been able to field a consistently strong rotation despite numerous injuries (such as the Tommy John surgery that will likely keep Walker Buehler sidelined until 2024) and off-the-field issues like Trevor Bauer’s suspension.  That said, Los Angeles always seems to be an arm or two short heading into the playoffs, as injuries have often forced the Dodgers to reshuffle both their rotation and bullpen, sometimes with disastrous consequences.

As such, it is certainly possible that the Dodgers could bolster this group with a pitcher who provides more durability than Kershaw or Heaney, and has more of an established track record than the rookies.  The free agent market offers several major names, and while there aren’t a ton of clubs with enough quality pitching to offer in trades, the Marlins do fit that description, and L.A. had some interest in right-hander Pablo Lopez at the deadline.  The Dodgers have the prospect depth to at least start a conversation about any pitcher in trade talks, though some possibilities are more realistic than others — for instance, even though the Angels’ possible sale has cast a lot of uncertainty over the franchise, it is hard to imagine the Angels dealing Shohei Ohtani to their local rivals.

Turning to the bullpen, the Dodgers figure to have some interest in re-signing Tommy Kahnle or deadline pickup Chris Martin, even though the current relief corps is pretty deep.  The biggest question is at the back of the bullpen, as it doesn’t look like saves leader Craig Kimbrel is in the team’s plans.  Kimbrel was removed from the closer’s job and wasn’t even included on the Dodgers’ NLDS roster following a season that saw him post a 3.75 ERA over 60 innings, with a lot of walks and hard contact allowed, plus a drop in his usually-elite strikeout rate.

If Los Angeles doesn’t adopt a closer committee or turn to one of its in-house options as a top choice for the ninth inning, Edwin Diaz is the top closer available in free agency if the Dodgers wanted to splurge.  Such names as David Robertson or Taylor Rogers might hold some interest for the L.A. front office, and while a reunion with Kenley Jansen is possible, it might be a little unusual to see Jansen return to the Dodgers a year after they were comfortable in letting him depart to join the Braves.

Then again, pretty much anything is on the table for a creative front office that has money to spend and prospects to trade, so another active offseason awaits for the Dodgers.  Any number of headline-grabbing moves are possible, as well as less-heralded transactions (like obtaining Thompson or Yency Almonte) that end up paying big dividends during the season.

Mets Prioritizing Retaining Brandon Nimmo And Edwin Díaz

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The Mets have a huge batch of players departing their roster for free agency in the coming days, a list that includes Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin and almost the entire bullpen, including closer Edwin Díaz. That group is likely to be joined by Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, who all either have opt-outs they can trigger or options they can turn down. However, the Mets are most interested in retaining Díaz and Nimmo out of that group, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

The club’s interest in Nimmo is fairly understandable for a few reasons. For one thing, Nimmo is very good, having been above-average at the plate in each of the past six seasons. For his career, he’s gotten into 608 games and has walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances, much better than league average, producing an overall batting line of .269/.385/.441. That production is 34% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 134 wRC+, with Nimmo putting up the same number in 2022.

Nimmo is also a serviceable defender in center field, though defensive metrics disagree on exactly how effective he is on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -3 this year, but a +4 last year. Ultimate Zone Rating was at -0.4 in 2022 after giving Nimmo a 2.9 in 2021. Outs Above Average was the most optimistic, pegging him with a six this year and a three last year.

Perhaps most importantly, Nimmo stayed healthy this year, getting into 151 games in the regular season and three more in the playoffs. Health has often been a question mark around Nimmo, with 2022 being just the second time he’s gotten into more than 100 games in a campaign. However, he played 55 games in the shortened 2020 season and 92 last year, meaning he’s going into free agency on the heels of a fairly strong three-year stretch in the health department.

What also adds to Nimmo’s appeal is the fairly weak crop of free agent center fielders this year. Outside of Nimmo and Aaron Judge, who’s never been a full-time center fielder, the top option is probably the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays hold a club option for Kiermaier but are likely to turn it down given his down year and season-ending hip surgery. Cody Bellinger could join the market if the Dodgers decide to non-tender him, though the reason they might do that is because he’s hit so poorly over the past two years. Beyond that group, there aren’t a lot of realistic options who can be expected to secure everyday jobs. As the Mets watch Nimmo depart, the easiest path to filling his vacancy is to simply bring him back.

General manager Billy Eppler recently said that the club is open to moving Starling Marte from right to center, but also spoke highly of Nimmo. Given that Marte recently turned 34 and didn’t play much center this year, it would be a riskier move to ride with him as opposed to bringing Nimmo back. Of course, retaining Nimmo will mean beating the market and paying him to stick around. Given Nimmo’s talents and the dearth of more attractive options, he surely won’t be cheap.

As for Díaz, it’s fairly understandable that the club would want to retain him as well. He is one of seven relievers that the Mets are about to lose to the open market, meaning they will have to effectively rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Starting with arguably the best reliever on the planet is a good way to kick things off. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31 in 2022. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated.

Given that excellence, Díaz will also be looking at a nice payday on the open market. The record deal for a reliever is the five-year, $86MM deal signed by the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. Díaz has a compelling case that he’s currently as good as Chapman was then or perhaps even better. Since that contract is six years old at this point and inflation generally pushes contracts upwards over time, it’s entirely possible that Díaz sets a new record. Given that the Mets have so many holes to fill, there would be some sense in avoiding mega deals while spreading their money around, but there’s also no doubt that retaining Díaz adds a huge lockdown element to help them win close ballgames.

The fact that the Mets have set their targets on Nimmo and Díaz doesn’t necessarily mean that they are not interested in their other potential free agents, such as deGrom, Walker or Bassitt. Roster Resource estimates the 2023 payroll is around $231MM at the moment, though that will drop by about $40MM when deGrom and Walker trigger their opt-outs. Assuming the Mets pick up Carlos Carrasco’s $14MM club option instead of the $3MM buyout, that will add $11MM back on. Factoring in a couple of non-tenders and the club could be around $200MM, give or take. Owner Steve Cohen has hinted at a $300MM spending limit, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, which leaves plenty of room to make multiple signings if that’s the way the club wants to go. Of course, the players also have a say in the matter, as do the 29 other teams. The Mets will have many strands to follow this winter, even if Nimmo and Díaz are currently at the top of the agenda.

One other route the club has considered is bringing in another Díaz, as Martino reports that the Mets tried to acquire Alexis Díaz from the Reds at the deadline a few months back. Alexis is Edwin’s younger brother and Martino reports that the two are quite close. Seeing the two brothers form a fraternal one-two punch at the back of the bullpen would certainly be exciting, but prying him loose from Cincinnati won’t be easy. 2022 was his first season in the big leagues, meaning the Reds still have five seasons of control over his services, including two more campaigns before Alexis even qualifies for a salary raise via arbitration. The debut could hardly have gone much better, as he tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.84 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate, though his 12.9% walk rate was a few ticks above league average. He worked his way up the club’s depth chart as the season went on, earning 13 holds and 10 saves.

The Mets are reportedly hesitant to deal from their prospect depth at the moment, preferring to add to the big league team via free agency while they try to get their farm into good shape. That could make a deal unlikely to come together, though it adds another layer of intrigue to an offseason full of it.

Tigers Claim Sean Guenther From Marlins

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The Tigers announced that they have claimed left-hander Sean Guenther off waivers from the Marlins. He was on the 60-day injured list and remains there for now. Additionally, the Marlins have outrighted right-hander Paul Campbell and lefty Jake Fishman, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.

At this time of year, many teams are facing roster crunches with no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training. Players on the 60-day IL, like Guenther, don’t count against a team’s 40-man count but will soon need to retake spots. Furthermore, the deadline for adding players to the roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft is November 15. Given those pressures, some teams are trying to proactively clear some space in anticipation of those upcoming choke points. It seems that the Marlins placed these three hurlers on waivers in recent days, losing one of them to Detroit.

Guenther, 27 in December, missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. Given the general 12-18 month recovery time for TJS, he’ll miss at least part of the 2023 season as well but could return for a portion of it. He made his MLB debut in 2021 and put up an unfortunate 9.30 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. He was much better in the minors, however, as he tossed 40 1/3 innings with a 3.12 ERA, 34% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 47.2% ground ball rate.

Those are certainly intriguing numbers, even if he has yet to translate them to the big leagues. It makes sense for the Tigers to be interested, especially since he’s not currently costing them a roster spot. However, as mentioned, the IL will be going away in a few days. Given the large number of injuries suffered by Tigers this year, Roster Resource currently counts 48 guys on the 40-man roster, with that number factoring in free agency departures. It’s possible that Guenther ends up back on waivers again in a few days, alongside several other Tigers. If he were to pass through unclaimed at that point, the Tigers would be able to keep him around as depth without him taking up a roster spot.

Campbell, 27, was drafted by the Rays but went to the Marlins in the 2020 Rule 5 draft. In 2021, he missed time after being given an 80-game PED suspension, with Campbell issuing a statement refuting the results of the test. He eventually returned and finished the season with a 6.41 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. In 2022, he was placed on the IL in April due to an elbow strain and never returned. He can stick around the Marlins’ organization as a depth arm without occupying a roster spot.

Fishman, 28 in February, was on and off the Marlins roster this year. He was selected to the roster on three separate occasions, with the first two both resulting in a DFA after a few days, followed by clearing waivers and being outrighted. He managed to throw 11 MLB innings with a 4.09 ERA, while also tossing 56 frames in Triple-A with a 2.25 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 54.2% ground ball rate. Due to the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career, he has the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency, though it’s unclear whether he’s chosen to do so or not.

The Opener: Guardians, Rays, Yankees

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With Game 3 of the World Series in the rear-view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Guardians Dominate Gold Glove Award Results

This year’s Gold Glove award winners were announced yesterday, with a remarkable amount of first time winners. Also remarkable is the way Cleveland dominated the AL; while no other team took home more than two Gold Gloves, the Guardians brought in a whopping four: Shane Bieber at pitcher, Andres Gimenez at second base, Steven Kwan in left field, and Myles Straw in center field. All four of the team’s Gold Glove recipients are under team control for multiple seasons, with Bieber set to hit free agency after 2024, Gimenez after 2027 and both Straw and Kwan under team control through the end of the 2028 season. These gold glove awards not only serve as a reminder of the successful season the Guardians had, but of the incredible youth of the roster, and the team control that comes with that youth.

2. The Rays Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration

Yesterday’s announcement of this year’s Super-Two cutoff prompts a re-examination of the coming arbitration class. The Rays have 19 players up for arbitration this offseason, the most in the majors. Matt Swartz projects Tampa to have to pay out over $42MM to retain all of their arbitration eligible players, it seems all but guaranteed that the Rays will have some tough decisions to make in terms of who to keep, who to trade, and who to non-tender. First baseman Ji-Man Choi, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough and catcher Francisco Mejia highlight the list of Rays in this arbitration class who may change uniforms this offseason as Tampa’s front office looks to optimize their limited financial resources.

3. Yankees To Explore Trade Market

The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted in a mailbag yesterday that the Yankees “simply have to try” trading third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks this offseason, citing both roster flexibility and payroll concerns. Hicks and Donaldson are set to cost the Yankees a combined $32MM this offseason, money a team focused on attempting to retain likely AL MVP Aaron Judge while simultaneously improving other areas of the roster would surely like to use elsewhere. Neither player can be expected to bring much of significance back to New York in trade, however. Donaldson is coming off a down season that saw him post a below average OPS+ for the first time since establishing himself as a full time player in 2013, and will play next season at age 37. Hicks, meanwhile, slashed just .216/.330/.313 in his first full season of games since 2018. While he’s younger than Donaldson, he still celebrated his 33rd birthday last month. Kirschner speculates that Hicks could bring back a “mid- to low-level” prospect, but the more likely scenario is that the Yankees would have to engage in some sort of bad contract swap or attach a mid- to low-level prospect of their own to move these aging, expensive batters.

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