Pirates, Tyler Heineman Agree To Minor League Deal
The Pirates are re-signing catcher Tyler Heineman to a minor league contract, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invite to big league camp.
Heineman will look to crack the Pittsburgh roster for a second straight season. The Bucs nabbed him off waivers from the Blue Jays last May, and he spent the remainder of the 2022 season in Pittsburgh. Heineman set career marks in both MLB games (62) and plate appearances (174) in 2022, with the bulk of that work coming in the Steel City. He and Jason Delay mostly split catching duties for the second half.
The 31-year-old hit .211/.277/.254 through 158 trips to the plate as a Pirate. He now owns a .214/.279/.276 line with one home run in 236 career big league plate appearances. The UCLA product has a far more impressive .283/.350/.413 mark in parts of seven seasons at Triple-A. Heineman has only gone down on strikes in 14.1% of his career trips to the dish at the top minor league level, and he’s carried those excellent bat-to-ball skills over against big league arms. He has just an 11.4% strikeout rate in the majors, but a complete lack of power has resulted in his overall lackluster offensive production.
At the end of the season, the Pirates designated Heineman for assignment. He was not tendered a contract while in DFA limbo, sending him directly to free agency. A month later, he’ll return to the organization and try to play his back onto the MLB roster. A 10-year minor league veteran, he’ll bring a fair bit of familiarity with the pitching staff in Spring Training.
The Pirates are sure to make more impactful moves behind the plate this winter. The Bucs only have one catcher, prospect Endy Rodriguez, on the 40-man roster at the moment. The switch-hitter is sure to open the season in the minors, so GM Ben Cherington and his staff will have to bring in a starting backstop from outside the organization. They could add multiple big league pieces. At the very least, they figure to bring in a new starter and another player or two on non-roster invitations to compete with Heineman and Delay for a backup job next spring.
How Much Can The Dodgers Do Under The Luxury Tax?
We’re now over a month into the offseason and it’s been a strong one for the players, with many of the top free agents landing contracts that have surpassed expectations. While there’s been plenty of aggression from teams that haven’t traditionally been top dogs like the Mets, Padres and Rangers, the Dodgers have been unusually quiet so far.
The Dodgers opened the 2022 season with a payroll of $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. At the end of the year, they had a large crop of players hit free agency, wiping a huge chunk of change off the books. Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney were all making noteworthy money in 2022 before hitting the open market, with a few midseason pickups and role players departing as well. The Dodgers then cleared out even more money by non-tendering Cody Bellinger and his projected $18.1MM arbitration salary as well as declining Justin Turner‘s $16MM club option for 2023.
With all of that, it was certainly a possibility that the club could come into the winter spending wildly and getting their payroll back up to last year’s levels. But while the free agents have been coming off the board with eye-popping deals, the Dodgers have largely been laying in the cut so far. Since the offseason began, the club has re-signed Kershaw and added Shelby Miller on one-year deals, for $20MM and $1.5MM, respectively. Those contracts have brought the club’s payroll for 2023 up to $173MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $189MM.
That leaves the Dodgers plenty of room to work with, in a sense. That pure payroll figure is more than $100MM below what they carried last year and that CBT figure is more than $40MM shy of the lowest CBT threshold. It’s possible they are simply playing a long game, waiting for the frenzy of the early offseason to die down and searching for bargains later in the winter. But there are also reasons to suspect they might continue being fairly inactive.
For one thing, there’s the Trevor Bauer situation to consider. The club signed him to a three-year, $102MM deal going into the 2021 season, though Bauer only made 17 starts for them. He was placed on administrative leave in July 2021 while the league investigated assault allegations against him. In April 2022, he was given a two-year suspension, covering the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. That suspension was without pay, wiping Bauer’s salary from the club’s commitments.
However, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently wrote about Bauer’s attempt to appeal that suspension, with a decision from an arbiter expected either this month or next month. If the suspension were to be completely overturned, the Dodgers will have to pay him for both 2022 and 2023, a $32MM salary for each. That’s true even if the club immediately releases Bauer after that decision. That’s a decent amount of money in itself, but Shaikin points out the Dodgers were luxury tax payors this year and would potentially have to pay extra fees on Bauer’s reinstated salary as well. In terms of 2023, the club’s CBT figure would jump to over $220MM. Shaikin also points out it’s possible the suspension is merely reduced, which would leave the club on the hook for some but not all of that money.
That decision will have a big impact on the club’s financial outlook going forward, so it stands to reason they want to wait and get some clarity there before making huge commitments. There are also more traditional baseball reasons for playing the waiting game, though. The departure of those aforementioned free agents has created many holes in the roster, but they might be able to fill them internally with their strong crop of prospects. On Baseball America’s most recent top 100 list, the Dodgers featured seven players, six of them in the top 52 spots. MLB Pipeline also has seven Dodgers on their list. FanGraphs is a bit less bullish but still puts five young Dodgers in the top 100.
Not only are these prospects highly regarded around the sport, they mostly are close to the majors or already there. Right-hander Ryan Pepiot made his MLB debut in 2022 while fellow righties Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone reached Triple-A. Third baseman Miguel Vargas cracked the majors this year while second baseman Michael Busch spent most of the year in Triple-A. Outfielder Andy Pages isn’t far behind, having spent the year in Double-A. Catcher Diego Cartaya is a bit further away, having spent most of this season in High-A, but he fared well and will likely be in Double-A to start 2023.
It’s possible the club thinks it’s time to let these younger players step up and start folding over a new leaf. “Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors,” Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten told Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times last month. “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.” That certainly suggests the club is willing to let their pricey free agents walk and attempt to replace them with younger and cheaper alternatives.
There’s no guarantee a prospect will come up and succeed at the major league level, no matter how high their praise among evaluators. But teams can’t build successful rosters through free agency alone and have to at least produce some talent from their own pipeline. There is certainly risk in trying to achieve that, but the Dodgers aren’t in a terrible place right now, on paper. Despite the many departures and modest activity thus far, the club’s overall projected WAR currently ranks sixth in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.
The club will surely be looking to make improvements there, though how aggressive they will be is to be seen. It’s been suggested by some the team would like to stay under the luxury tax in 2023 in order to spend more aggressively next winter when Shohei Ohtani is likely to be the top free agent available. As a reminder, the CBT carries increasing penalties for clubs that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers have paid the tax in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023. However, if they stayed under this year, they would reset and could cross the line again in 2024 as a “first-time” payor and significantly lower penalties. With so many contracts coming off the books and so many prospects ready to debut, it would seem now is a good time to flip that reset switch. But if that is indeed the plan, the Bauer decision will loom even larger. If the suspension is upheld, the club has over $40MM to work with before nearing the line, but the number is closer to $10MM if the decision is overturned.
Either way, there’s still plenty of talent currently on the roster. As mentioned, FanGraphs considers them the sixth-best club in the majors at the moment. The rotation is in decent shape with Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May taking up four spots. There are some injury question marks with that group but it’s got a lot of upside. They also have the aforementioned prospects as options for the back-end and depth, with Pepiot, Miller and Stone in the mix. The bullpen has some exciting young pitchers in Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol.
There’s plenty of talent on the position player side as well, with many of them capable of moving around to other positions as needed. Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game and will be behind the plate. The club is reportedly comfortable with Gavin Lux moving from second base to shortstop. Super utility guy Chris Taylor could take over the keystone for him. At the corners, Freddie Freeman will have first base spoken for while Vargas could get an extended audition at the hot corner. Max Muncy can spend some time at first, second and third while also acting as the designated hitter somewhat regularly. In the outfield, Mookie Betts will have one position spoken for while Trayce Thompson should have another. That leaves one spot open for either Busch or James Outman, a prospect a bit behind Busch on the rankings but one who’s posted huge numbers in the upper minors and has already made his MLB debut. There’s also the possibility Muncy takes over second base while Taylor spend significant time in the outfield.
If the club has $40MM to work with, there are plenty of ways for them to spread it around to improve the team while still leaving room for their younger players to take a step forward. Adding a starter would bump their prospects out of the top five but opportunities would surely come up throughout the year. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Even with a free agent addition, opportunities will undoubtedly arise for Pepiot, Miller and Stone.
The top remaining free agent starter is Carlos Rodón, who was predicted by MLBTR for a salary of $28MM but is reportedly looking for a seven-year deal and could theoretically take a lesser annual salary to max out his guarantee. The Dodgers usually prefer higher salaries and shorter terms but they could change their tune if they’re focused on their CBT hit in 2023. Even adding about $25MM for someone like Rodón would leave the club with room for other upgrades, so there isn’t really any starting pitcher they couldn’t fit into their plans in this scenario. Some of the other options available include Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and old friend Ross Stripling.
Adding an outfielder seems a possibility, as it was reported the club made a run at Kevin Kiermaier before he agreed to join the Blue Jays. If the club looks to other options, they likely won’t need to break the bank. The top options are already off the board with Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo each agreeing to rejoin their respective New York clubs. That leaves Andrew Benintendi as arguably the top guy left in this department. MLBTR predicted he would land a $54MM contract over four years, or $13.5MM per season.
The club could also pursue an infielder and bump Taylor into spending more time on the grass, perhaps with Lux staying at second. The top remaining option there is Carlos Correa, though it seems he’s not in the club’s plans. That leaves one other marquee option in Dansby Swanson, with a big drop down to less exciting options like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Brandon Drury or Justin Turner. Swanson was predicted for a $22MM salary over seven years for a $154MM total, while those other names will surely come in under that.
There are plenty of enticing options in any of those paths, but the club would have to be willing to cross the luxury tax again in order to do all of them. If they are indeed planning on staying under, they will like have to make tougher choices about which of these areas are worth their investments and which are worth leaving open for the young ones. Staying under the tax wouldn’t completely hamper the club, as they would almost certainly go into the next season pegged by many for a postseason spot. But FanGraphs currently considers them the fourth-best team in the National League, behind the Braves and the hyper-aggressive Mets and Padres. A modest offseason could still leave the Dodgers in decent shape, but it could perhaps knock them off their pedestal as perennial favorites.
Yankees Preparing To Make Formal Contract Offer To Carlos Rodon
The Yankees are expected to put forth a contract offer to Carlos Rodón in the coming days, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman has suggested on a few occasions the Yankees have serious interest in the top free agent starter remaining, and putting a formal proposal on the table would mark a notable step in that pursuit.
Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, though Heyman reiterates that New York is reluctant to offer the seven-plus guaranteed seasons the southpaw and his representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly seek. A seventh year is a lofty goal for Rodón’s camp, assuming they’re not banking in a notable dip on an annual basis to compensate for the longer term. That doesn’t appear to be the case, as Heyman writes they’re looking for a deal that tops $200MM in guarantees.
That’s rare territory, as only six pitchers have surpassed the $200MM mark. Gerrit Cole stands head and shoulders above the pack at $324MM over nine years, with the rest of the group checking in between $206.5MM and $245MM. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke are the only other hurlers to reach that level. A handful of additional free agent pitchers (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, CC Sabathia and Barry Zito) have reached seven-plus years on deals under $200MM, but that’s itself a rare occurrence for a pitcher.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM guarantee for Rodón. The free agent rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated, and at least a six-year deal now seems very attainable for the two-time All-Star. Landing a seventh season at an annual salary below that projected $28MM — thereby decreasing the deal’s average annual value and lowering the luxury tax hit for a signing team — could be on the table. That’s been a common strategy this offseason, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo all taking slight discounts on a per-year basis for very long deals with larger guarantees than forecasted. The best of both worlds for Rodón, of course, would be a seven-year term that doesn’t relinquish anything on an annual basis. It remains to be seen if a team will go to those lengths, with a seven-year pact requiring at least $28.57MM in annual salary to get to $200MM total.
Rodón is the only free agent ace still available. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander were the two free agent hurlers who could rival or best Rodón from a performance perspective. Their ages limited them to shorter deals (five and two years, respectively) than the one Rodón is seeking. At age 30, the former third overall draftee has arguably the best combination of performance track record and youth among this year’s class of hurlers. However, he’s not without some question marks as a player with a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder procedure on his injury history.
The North Carolina State product stayed healthy in 2022, tossing a career-high 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball for the Giants. He was brilliant for a second straight season, striking out a third of opponents with solid control. On a rate basis, he’s one of the sport’s top pitchers, but he doesn’t have the workload track record of any pitcher who’d previously gotten to $200MM.
Cole, Strasburg, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer and Grienke had all had multiple seasons with 200+ innings pitched prior to inking their megadeals; Rodón has never gotten to that level. Workload for starting pitchers continues to dwindle, though, and it stands to reason teams will increasingly value per-inning performance while weighing workload volume less as expectations for pitcher roles change.
New York and the incumbent Giants have been tied to Rodón on a few occasions, and Heyman added the Cardinals as a team with interest over the weekend. The Rangers, Mets and Blue Jays were tied to him earlier in the offseason, but Texas later added Andrew Heaney to join deGrom while Toronto agreed to terms with Chris Bassitt this evening. The Mets landed each of Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. The Orioles, Red Sox and Twins have also been very loosely linked to Rodón in prior reports, although the extent of the interest of all three clubs isn’t clear.
Twins, Christian Vazquez Agree To Three-Year Deal
The Twins have jumped into a fast-moving catching market, reportedly agreeing to terms with Christian Vázquez on a three-year contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, will guarantee him $30MM. Vázquez is represented by MDR Sports Management.
A longtime member of the Red Sox, Vázquez now changes uniforms for the second time in five months. Boston dealt him to the Astros at this past summer’s trade deadline, bringing back prospects Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez for the final half-season before he hit free agency. That left Vázquez in an unfamiliar role splitting time with Martín Maldonado, but it positioned him to secure his second World Series title.
Vázquez, 32, is one of the better all-around catchers in the game. A light-hitting defensive specialist for his first few seasons, the Puerto Rico native has taken a step forward with the bat over the past four years. He hit .276/.320/.477 in 521 plate appearances in 2019, popping a career-best 23 home runs. Vázquez hasn’t replicated that kind of power outside a season with perhaps the liveliest ball the league has ever used, never reaching double digit longballs in another season. Still, he’s been an adequate hitter in two of the past three years. Vázquez stumbled to a .258/.308/.352 mark in 2021, but he was an above-average hitter during the abbreviated 2020 campaign and roughly league average this past season.
Going back to the start of 2019, he owns a .271/.318/.416 line in slightly more than 1600 plate appearances. That’s five percentage points below league average overall, by measure of wRC+, but it’s above par for a catcher. Backstops have a cumulative .232/.304/.390 mark over that stretch. Vázquez doesn’t draw many walks and, 2019 aside, rarely hits for power. His high-contact approach differentiates him from most of his positional peers, as he owns the fifth-lowest strikeout percentage among catchers (minimum 750 plate appearances) since the start of 2019.
The 2022 season was generally par for the course. Among 29 catchers with 300+ trips to the dish, he had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) and fourth-best rate of contact per swing (85.1%). Overall, Vázquez posted a .274/.315/.399 line in 119 games. He carried an impressive .282/.327/.432 mark with the Red Sox before the trade but stumbled to a .250/.278/.308 showing in 35 regular season games as an Astro. Vázquez also did very little offensively in his six-game playoff showing.
The Twins clearly aren’t deterred by that slow finish to the year. That came in an unfamiliar role dividing his reps with Maldonado, and Minnesota presumably anticipates he’ll more closely approximate his production from his time in Boston moving forward. Offense is only part of the story and Vázquez has an excellent reputation with the glove.
For his career, Vázquez has nabbed just under 34% of attempted basestealers. He had a more modest 27.1% mark this year, but that’s still narrowly above the roughly 25% league average. Statcast also credits him with a better than average arm, placing him 20th among 73 catchers with 10+ throws in pop time (average time to throw to second base). Vázquez consistently draws strong grades from public pitch framing metrics. Pair strong receiving with his ability to control the running game, he’s been rated as an above-average catcher by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in all but one season of his career. DRS pegged him 11 runs above par in 2022 and has rated him as 51 runs above average over his eight years in the majors.
That wealth of experience calling games certainly added to Vázquez’s appeal to the Minnesota front office. The Twins have young backstop Ryan Jeffers on hand already. The 25-year-old will continue to see a fair amount of run at Target Field, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have each spoken of a desire to add another starting-caliber catcher to pair with Jeffers. They’ve done just that, leaving manager Rocco Baldelli to decide how to divvy up playing time.
Jeffers, a right-handed hitter, has been far better against lefty pitching (.263/.344/.450) than same-handed opponents (.185/.256/.361) through his first couple MLB campaigns. Vázquez also hits right-handed and is better against southpaws, but his career splits aren’t so drastic. He has a .257/.309/.422 line against lefty arms and a .263/.310/.372 mark against right-handers. Falvey has already suggested the Twins don’t plan to relegate Jeffers solely to the small side of a platoon, but the presence of a more balanced hitter in Vázquez gives Baldelli some more flexibility in matching up against opposing pitchers.
It’s the first meaningful dip into free agency for Minnesota this offseason. Vázquez’s contract lands right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of $27MM over three years. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but an even distribution of $10MM annually would bring Minnesota’s 2023 payroll around $107MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. There’s a fair amount of room before getting to this past season’s approximate $134MM mark, and the Twins surely aren’t finished. Addressing shortstop — where the organization awaits Carlos Correa’s decision — is the big question, but the Twins also could stand to upgrade both areas of the pitching staff (especially the bullpen) and potentially shake up their outfield.
Vázquez’s signing follows last week’s five-year agreement between the Cardinals and Willson Contreras and this afternoon’s blockbuster that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. As a result, the catching market is drying up quickly. The Blue Jays can still dangle one of their three backstops, with Danny Jansen seemingly the most likely to move. Free agency is without many obvious solutions at this point, with glove-first players like Austin Hedges, Tucker Barnhart, Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino (the latter two of whom saw their 2022 seasons cut short by surgery) among the options.
Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Vázquez was making progress on a deal with an unknown team. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the backstop was in agreement with the Twins. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported it was a three-year contract, while Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily was first to report the $30MM guarantee.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Christian Vázquez Reportedly Progressing Towards Deal With Unknown Team
The market for catcher Christian Vázquez is “heating up” and he’s making progress towards a deal, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Per Cotillo, it’s unclear if the Red Sox are still involved.
It appears that the dominos are falling in the catching market. The top free agent, Willson Contreras, was signed by the Cardinals a few days ago. Earlier today, the top trade option came off the board when Sean Murphy was traded to Atlanta. Now it seems that teams are quickly turning to Vázquez, generally considered the second-best free agent this offseason behind Contreras.
Now 32, Vázquez has been the primary backstop in Boston for most of the past few years, though he was traded to the Astros at the deadline in the most recent season. His bat has been up and down over his career but his work behind the plate has been praised fairly consistently. From 2014 to the present, he has posted 51 Defensive Runs Saved, which places him fifth among all backstops in the league. FanGraphs’ framing metric has given him a 60.5 in that same timeframe, good enough for sixth place.
While Vázquez is sure to provide solid work with the glove, his production with the bat is less certain. Over 2019 and 2020, he hit .278/.327/.472 for a wRC+ of 105. That seemed to be a nice breakout after a few years of more tepid work in the batter’s box. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to maintain it, dropping to a line of .265/.311/.374 over the past two years for a wRC+ of 87.
Regardless, he still was the second catcher on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents for this offseason, getting predicted for a three-year deal worth $27MM. It was reported a few days ago that the Twins made him an offer, while he’s also been connected to the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Padres and Giants with plenty of other clubs surely interested as well. For any clubs that miss out on Vázquez, the remaining free agents would include Omar Narváez, Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges, while the trade market is now headlined by the Toronto of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno.
A’s Designate Vimael Machín For Assignment
The A’s have designated infielder Vimael Machín for assignment, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. Machín is a casualty of today’s blockbuster deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta with five players going to Oakland.
Machín, 29, came over to the A’s by way of the Rule 5 draft, being plucked from the Cubs in 2019. Since then, he has played in 112 big league games with the A’s over the past three seasons. He hasn’t hit much in that time, as his career batting line currently sits at .208/.290/.261 for a wRC+ of 66. He’s fared much better in the minors though, having hit .307/.394/.470 over the past two seasons. The Las Vegas Aviators play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but that production was still 18% above league average, as evidenced by his 118 wRC+.
Defensively, Machín brings a lot of versatility to the table, having played all four infield positions in the majors, though most of that has been at third base. In the minors, he’s also had some brief time in the outfield and even in both ends of the battery.
The A’s will now have one week to work out a trade or else put Machín on waivers. He was outrighted in April but selected back onto the club’s roster in June. By virtue of that previous outright, he would have the right to elect free agency if he were to clear waivers. However, given his versatility and strong offensive work in the minors, it’s possible another team could put in a claim. He still has two option years remaining and could thus be kept in the minors as depth once the season begins.
Marlins Have Made Offer To Justin Turner
The Marlins have made an offer to free-agent corner infielder Justin Turner, per Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. There are other teams interested, per the report, but Miami’s offer is generally viewed as a “competitive” one. In addition to the Marlins, Turner has received interest from the incumbent Dodgers — who declined a $16MM club option on him — as well as the Diamondbacks.
Turner, 38, would give the Marlins a direly needed right-handed bat to help with the team’s miserable production against left-handed pitching. Miami was the worst team in baseball against lefties in 2022, and it wasn’t particularly close, as Marlins hitters turned in a .208/.273/.325 batting line versus southpaws. That resulted in a 71 wRC+, which trailed the 29th-ranked D-backs by a measure of 10 points and suggested that Miami hitters were 29% worse than league average against lefties (after weighting for home park and league environment).
As such, a veteran of Turner’s stature would be a massive boon to Miami’s run-scoring potential. The longtime Dodgers slugger posted a .275./349/.389 batting line against lefties in 2022 and carries a stout .276/.358/.460 output against left-handed pitchers over the course of a 14-year career in the Majors. Setting aside his platoon splits, Turner batted .278/.350/.438 in 2022 (123 wRC+) and has been at least 23% better than league average at the plate in each season dating back to 2014.
With the Marlins, the expectation would be that Turner would split his time between third base, first base and designated hitter. Turner has scarcely played first base in the Majors, logging just 238 innings in his career — none since 2016. He’s long been a solid third baseman, but his defensive grades have begun to dwindle in his late 30s, and the Dodgers used him at designated hitter in about half of his 128 games in 2022. Each of Defensive Runs Saved (-1), Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.1) and Outs Above Average (-2) panned Turner’s glovework at the hot corner in 574 innings, although while each mark was below-average, none painted him as a complete liability, either.
It’s been a quiet offseason for the Marlins, who’ve done little to address their roster outside of a trade for Rays reliever JT Chargois. The offense, which ranked 24th in the Majors in homers (144), 28th in runs scored (586), 26th in batting average (.230), 27th in on-base percentage (.294) and 28th in slugging percentage (.363) could stand upgrades at multiple positions.
It’s not quite clear just how much Miami has to spend this winter, but Mish and Jackson suggest Miami was willing to put forth an offer in the neighborhood of two years and $40MM for Jose Abreu before he signed with the Astros, suggesting that general manager Kim Ng has at least some leeway in her pursuits of veteran free agents.
The Marlins are projected by Roster Resource to trot out an Opening Day payroll in the neighborhood of $95MM at the moment. Turner would likely add more than $10MM to that figure, pushing the Marlins close to the franchise’s $115MM Opening Day record, set back in 2017 under former owner Jeffrey Loria.
Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks
The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.
The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.
The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.
Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.
As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.
A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.
As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.
Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.
If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.
It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.
Pirates Notes: Reynolds, Bednar, Catchers
Even after Bryan Reynolds requested a trade from the Pirates, the team has given no indication of plans to shop him. General manager Ben Cherington called Reynolds’ request “disappointing” but immediately added that the request could have “zero impact” on the team’s approach to its All-Star center fielder. That appears to be the case, as while several clubs have inquired on Reynolds in the days since his trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the asking price is still through the roof — so much so that execs with three other clubs cast strong doubt on the chances of him actually being moved, per the report.
High asking prices are nothing new for the Pirates when it comes to Reynolds, though many onlookers might’ve wondered whether Reynolds’ request for a trade would grease the wheels on a transaction finally coming to fruition. It only ever takes one team to budge on the right prospect and/or make an unexpectedly strong offer, so situations such as this one can change quickly if circumstance dictate.
As it stands, however, Bucs seem intent on holding to the sky-high asking prices they’ve set on Reynolds in the past. The Seattle Times reported last year that Pittsburgh’s asking price for Reynolds when the Mariners asked at the 2021 trade deadline began with then-prospect Julio Rodriguez. The Miami Herald indicated last spring that Pittsburgh asked the Marlins for 2021 first-rounder Kahlil Watson, 2020 first-rounder Max Meyer and additional pieces. Both Watson and Meyer were consensus top-75 prospects in all of baseball at that point.
The calculus has inherently changed at least slightly since those reported asking prices, if only because Reynolds has inched closer to free agency. That said, he’s still under Pirates control for another three seasons, set to earn $6.75MM in 2023 before a pair of arbitration raises in 2024 and 2025. He’s also fresh off yet another strong season in which he slashed .262/.345/.461 (125 wRC+) with a career-high 27 home runs. Reynolds’ rate stats are down a bit from his brilliant 2021 season, though that’s at least partially due to a sluggish start in 2022; he finished the year quite strongly.
In all likelihood, Reynolds will continue to serve as one of the most oft-speculated and simultaneously least-attainable names on the trade market. It’s old hat for the 27-year-old by now, as he’s been the focus of trade pursuits for the bulk of his big league career. Such is the life of a young star on a rebuilding Pirates team, as both Reynolds and teammate David Bednar can attest. However, while Reynolds has at least looked to engineer his own exit from the perennial deluge of trade rumblings, Bednar has done no such thing. As Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, Bednar didn’t outwardly clamor for a long-term deal when asked about signing an extension but strongly implied he hopes to stay:
“I think you guys know how I feel about Pittsburgh. I love this place more than anything. But that’s the business part of it. I’m not worried about that. I’m just worried about getting outs for the whole season.”
It’s only natural that Bednar’s response would be one of affection for the city of Pittsburgh. He was, after all, born in Pittsburgh and raised in the area, attending nearby Mars Area High School before going to college in Easton — closer to Philadelphia. His family still lives in the Pittsburgh area.
Acquired from the Padres in the trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego, Bednar has quickly emerged as one of the National League’s best relievers, pitching to a combined 2.40 ERA (2.57 FIP, 2.73 SIERA) with a huge 32.7% strikeout rate against a strong 7.8% walk rate in 112 1/3 innings with the Pirates. He moved into the closer’s role in 2022, saving a career-best 19 games, and has averaged just shy of 97 mph on his heater since being acquired by his hometown club. He comes with even more team control than Reynolds, as he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until the 2026-27 offseason. Teams have understandably placed plenty of inquiries, but the Pirates have (also understandably) set a lofty asking price on Bednar, just as with Reynolds.
While fans of baseball’s other 29 teams might be focused on who the Pirates might trade away, be it this offseason or next summer, Pittsburgh fans are more keenly focused on just how the Bucs might continue adding pieces this winter. The Pirates have already signed Carlos Santana, Vince Velasquez and Jarlin Garcia to one-year contracts as they look to improve their 2023 roster, and they’ll surely need to factor a catcher (or multiple catchers) into that equation.
Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic suggested recently that the Pirates plan to not only add a new starting catcher but also a backup in the weeks ahead. Top prospect Endy Rodriguez is the only catcher on the 40-man roster at the moment, and well-regarded as the 22-year-old switch-hitter may be, he’s played in all of 37 games above A-ball.
In 2022, the Pirates leaned on a combination of Jason Delay, Roberto Perez, Tyler Heineman, Andrew Knapp and Michael Perez behind the plate, creating a revolving-door effect that the team likely wishes to avoid in the future. Part of that was due to a May hamstring injury for Perez, which required surgery and ended the two-time Gold Glove winner’s season far earlier than anticipated. There’s been some mutual interest in the Bucs re-signing Perez, but Pittsburgh also reportedly has shown interest in former division rival Tucker Barnhart.
There are myriad options available in free agency, in addition to a few high-profile names on the trade market (e.g. Sean Murphy, Danny Jansen). However, with Rodriguez and 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis rising through the system, the Pirates are likely content to add some stopgap options while a pair of potential catchers of the future continue to develop in the upper minors.
Guardians Sign Josh Bell
December 12: The Guardians have made it official, announcing that they have signed Bell to a two-year deal.
December 6: The Guardians have agreed to a two-year, $33MM contract with free-agent first baseman Josh Bell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Bell, a client of the Boras Corporation, will be able to opt out of the contract after the first season of the deal.
It’s a short-term but lucrative annual deal for the 30-year-old Bell, who looked poised for a long-term commitment in free agency before a sluggish finish to the season following a trade to the Padres. The veteran switch-hitter opened the season on a tear with the Nationals and maintained that production into late July, but after slashing .301/.384/.493 with the Nats (143 wRC+), Bell hit just .192/.316/.271 in San Diego.
Ups and downs are nothing new for Bell, who at multiple points in his career has appeared on the cusp of solidifying himself as a star-caliber slugger, only to fall into a prolonged slump. Back in the first half of the 2019 season, for instance, the former No. 61 overall draft pick erupted with a .302/.376/.648 batting line and 27 home runs. That netted him what remains the only All-Star nomination of his career, but following the Midsummer Classic, Bell backtracked with a solid but unspectacular .233/.351/.429 slash.
His offensive doldrums spiraled out of control in 2020, when he turned in a career-worst .226/.305/.364 slash in the shortened 2020 season. Following that disappointing campaign, the Pirates sold low on the former top prospect by flipping his final two years of club control to the Nationals in exchange for righty Wil Crowe and minor leaguer Eddy Yean.
A month into Bell’s Nationals tenure, it looked to be more of the same, but he righted the ship in May. From May 1, 2021 through this year’s trade deadline, Bell came to the plate 945 times and recorded a stout .289/.373/.489 slash with 39 big flies, 46 doubles, an 11.5% walk rate and a 15.3% strikeout rate that’s far lower than many would expect from a 6’4″, 255-pound first baseman with 30-homer power.
In spite of that sizable frame and the clear raw power Bell possesses, however, he’s never really been a consistent power threat — at least not to the extent one would expect. The juiced-ball season in 2019 was his lone 30-homer campaign (37, to be exact), and his season-to-season home run totals have otherwise ranged between 12 (2018) and 27 (2021).
It’s hard not to wonder what might happen were Bell to commit to elevating the ball more, but that’s easier said than done for any hitter. Bell’s enormous 49.9% ground-ball rate is far higher than one would expect for a slugger of his stature, and he’s taken that mark north of 50% in each of the past three seasons, topping out with a mammoth 55.7% grounder rate in 2022. Since 2020, only five hitters in baseball have put the ball on the ground more frequently than Bell — a confounding trait for a switch-hitter with plus raw power. Three different teams have been unable to coax consistent power production from Bell, but the Guardians will give their best effort to unlock his maximum potential.
To be clear, Bell remains a well above-average hitter in the aggregate, even with the glut of grounders and a career punctuated thus far by peaks and valleys. Dating back to 2019, he’s been 20% better than the average hitter by measure of wRC+, and his career mark in that regard sits at 116 (16% better than average). Bell is a lifetime .262/.351/.459 hitter whose only below-average season at the plate came in the shortened 2020 season.
Also appealing to the Guardians was surely the fact that Bell, like so much of their team, is exceedingly difficult to strike out. No team in baseball fanned at a lower clip than the Guardians’ 18.2% last year — nor was anyone particularly close. Bell, who struck out at just a 15.8% rate in 2022, should fit right in. He’s kept his strikeout rate at 19% or lower each season other than that grisly 2020 campaign, and he’s also drawn walks in an excellent 11.8% of his 3406 career plate appearances.
All of that aligns well with Cleveland’s general offensive philosophy, and while it seems that Jose Abreu was the Guards’ first choice — Cleveland reportedly made him a three-year offer before he signed in Houston — Bell still adds some needed thump who can join Josh Naylor in splitting time at designated hitter and first base. Bell isn’t an all-world defender at first, but he’s improved his defensive ratings from sub-par to slightly above average in recent seasons, and the Guardians surely feel confident that he’s a reliable source of at least 15 to 20 homers with a robust on-base percentage. He’ll join Jose Ramirez as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order threat, continuing to give the Cleveland lineup plenty of balance.
If things go according to plan and Bell can ward off another prolonged slump to close out the season, he’ll be a strong candidate to exercise that opt-out provision and return to the open market a year from now. As previously laid out, the overall offensive track record for Bell is quite strong; had he not fallen into that San Diego swoon, he and Boras might have had a case for a contract upwards of five years in length. Depending on the extent of Bell’s success, the Guardians could even issue him a qualifying offer upon opting out.
We predicted that Bell would still be able to command a four-year deal around this AAV on our Top 50 free agent rankings, but the two-year term and opt-out provides some of the best of both worlds. If Bell performs well, he can collect a hearty salary in 2022 and try again for a lengthier deal a year from now. If not, he’ll at least have a second season around the going rate for a bat-first slugger of this nature. And, even if he forgoes the opt-out next offseason, a strong 2024 showing could position him for a multi-year deal.
From a payroll vantage point, Cleveland had ample room to plug him into the mix — history of low payrolls notwithstanding. Bell, assuming an even distribution of his $33MM guarantee, pushes the Guardians to just $35.3MM in guaranteed salary next season. Add in another $35.7MM in projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players (tip of the cap to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Guardians will sit around the $87MM mark next season — at least as things currently stand.
The Guardians opened the 2021 season with just a $49.6MM payroll and were at $68.2MM to begin the 2022 campaign, but they won the AL Central in ’22 and are only five years removed from trotting out an Opening Day payroll of nearly $135MM. At least on paper, there should be room to make further additions, though that’ll depend on ownership’s willingness to further ramp up payroll as they look to repeat in a weak division.