Cubs Have Had Discussions With Dominic Smith
After signing Cody Bellinger to a one-year, $17.5MM deal today, the Cubs could wind up landing another left-handed power bat, with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reporting the team has had discussions with Dominic Smith at the Winter Meetings. Smith is a free agent after the Mets non-tendered him.
Smith has struggled in the past two seasons, playing through a partially torn labrum last year and never got going in 2022, as he battled for playing time with J.D. Davis and ultimately found himself optioned to the minor leagues. He finished 2022 with a .194/.276/.284 batting line without a single home run, good for a well below average 67 wRC+.
With that being said, Smith has showed plenty of promise over his career, and has been the victim of circumstance in some regards. The 27-year-old was drafted 11th overall in 2013 and regularly featured on top-100 prospect lists as he came through the minors. He received some time in the majors in 2017 and 2018, but showed his offensive promise in 2019, when he slashed .282/.355/.525 with 11 home runs in 197 plate appearances. That also happened to be the same year Pete Alonso burst onto the stage, and forced Smith to spend time in left field, where he graded out poorly defensively.
Boosted by the presence of the DH in the National League in 2020, Smith continued hitting in that pandemic-shortened season, slashing .316/.377/.616 with ten home runs. Yet things tailed off in 2021 as injury sapped his power, and Smith has never really been able to get another look in and the Mets opted to non-tender instead of paying him a projected $4MM arbitration salary.
While his 2022 numbers won’t drive much interest, he’d make sense for teams willing to take a flier on him rediscovering his plentiful upside. Of course, one of the problems Smith faced in New York was a lack of regular playing time, so while times may see him as a high-upside bench bat, he may be more inclined to seek out opportunities where he can start, at least initially.
The Cubs currently have Matt Mervis and Alfonso Rivas penciled into the first base and designated hitter slots, so there’s certainly room there for them to add a player like Smith. The Cubs have also held long-standing interest in him, as DiComo adds that the Cubs discussed a trade with the Mets this past summer involving Smith. The Rays and Royals have both shown interest in Smith earlier this off-season as well.
Willson Contreras Has Received Preliminary Multi-Year Offers From Cardinals, Astros
The market for the top free agent catcher continues to come into view. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports that Willson Contreras has received preliminary multi-year offers from both the Cardinals and Astros at this week’s Winter Meetings. A third team has also put forth an offer, according to Wittenmyer, though the identity of that club is unknown (but is said to not be either Boston or Tampa Bay). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch characterizes discussions more informally as the team also juggles trade possibilities but notes there has been talk about the possibility of a multi-year offer.
Both St. Louis and Houston have been tied to Contreras numerous times through the offseason, but it’s still notable those teams have put proposals on the table. John Denton of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that a fourth year could be an obstacle in Contreras’ talks with St. Louis. According to Denton, the Cards are prepared to meet the three-time All-Star’s asking price on an annual basis but are reluctant to go past three seasons. Whether another team is putting a fourth year on the table isn’t clear, although Wittenmyer adds that no teams have thus far been willing to go five years.
St. Louis skipper Oliver Marmol confirmed reports the Cards would sit down with Contreras at the Winter Meetings. Goold has suggested the team’s preferred solution is to acquire A’s backstop Sean Murphy, although that’d require surrendering highly-regarded young talent — and the A’s are reportedly looking for MLB-ready players in return. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweets there’s a growing sense the Cardinals could find their new catcher in free agency, and he characterizes Contreras as the target that’d be most likely in that scenario.
The Astros interest in Contreras dates back to the trade deadline, but owner Jim Crane nixed an agreed-upon swap that’d have brought him in from Chicago. It seems they’re less concerned about him acclimating to a new pitching staff with an offseason to prepare than they’d be if he were added in the midst of a pennant race, and the multi-year proposals on the table reflect that. Houston has Martín Maldonado as their top backstop at present, and Contreras would be expected to rotate between catcher, left field and designated hitter if they pulled off a deal.
At the end of the season, the 30-year-old declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs. He’d cost any signing team at least one draft pick, while the Cubs stand to receive draft compensation in the highly likely event he departs. MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $84MM contract for Contreras at the start of the offseason.
Cardinals Sign Guillermo Zuniga To Major League Deal
The Cardinals have signed right-hander Guillermo Zuniga to a big league contract, per a team announcement. The move takes their 40-man roster to 38 players. Zuniga is a free agent after departing the Dodgers in November.
Zuniga, 24, was originally signed out of Colombia by the Braves back in 2016. He struggled as a teenager with Atlanta, making it as high as Rookie ball where he pitched 19 1/3 innings of 5.59 ERA ball, striking out just 12.5% of batters before being released at the end of the 2017 season.
The Dodgers picked him up and he found a lot more success in their organization, making it up to Double-A in 2021. That year, Zuniga threw 35 1/3 innings of 3.06 ERA ball, striking out 33.8% of batters against a 9% walk rate. Zuniga would repeat Double-A in 2022, but saw a step backwards in results. He’d throw 54 2/3 innings for a 4.77 ERA, experiencing a decline in strikeouts (27.4%) and an increase in walks (12.4%).
Zuniga became a free agent last month, and given he’s never pitched above Double-A, it’s interesting to see him land a major league deal. It’s possible he had widespread interest in a minor league deal, and the Cardinals opted to hand him a major league deal to seal the deal. Regardless, Zuniga still has all three minor league options remaining, so while he’ll occupy a spot on their 40-man roster they don’t need to immediately use him in the big leagues. On the surface, Zuniga’s results don’t jump off the page but he has shown some impressive strikeout numbers at times. He leans on a fastball-slider combo, with the fastball touching 96 mph.
David Price Won’t Pitch In 2023
Veteran left-hander David Price won’t pitch in 2023, his agent Bo McKinnis told Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Price is a free agent after spending the last season with the Dodgers. A report came out during the season that Price was planning to retire at the conclusion of the 2022 campaign, but the player denied that report. Heyman notes that his agent isn’t using the retirement word here either.
Price, now 37, was drafted first overall by the Rays back in the 2007 draft, quickly making his way through the minors and pitching a handful of innings in 2008. Price would establish himself in the Rays’ rotation the following year, and spent the next five-and-a-half seasons dominating American League lineups with Tampa Bay. He’d wind up throwing 1,143 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball, winning a Cy Young award in 2012, making four All Star appearances and helping the Rays make the playoffs between 2010-12.
As is often the case with smaller market teams, trade speculation swirled as the Rays record dipped below .500 and Price’s club control ran down. The Tigers swooped, landing Price in a 2014 deadline that landed the Rays Willy Adames and Drew Smyly among others. Despite joining a Tigers rotation that featured Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the team was swept in the ALDS by Baltimore that year.
The Tigers still controlled Price for one more year in 2015, and he started the year out in their rotation. Yet despite pitching to a 2.53 ERA in 21 starts, the Tigers fell out of contention and with his free agency pending, they flipped him to the Blue Jays for Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris and Jairo Labourt. Price continued his excellent ways in Toronto, tossing 11 starts of 2.30 ERA ball and helping the Blue Jays through a memorable post-season that finished with defeat to the Royals in the ALCS. All told, it was an outstanding free agency platform year of 220 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball and a runner up finish in AL Cy Young voting.
That winter, Price landed a monster seven-year, $217MM deal with the Red Sox. While he did throw an impressive 230 innings in his first season in Boston, the 3.99 ERA was well shy of his dominant best. After throwing 185+ innings in seven-straight seasons, injuries plagued much of the remainder of Price’s Boston career, and he’d make just eleven starts in 2017. He’d back that up with 30 starts in 2018, pitching to a 3.58 ERA as the Red Sox won the World Series, with Price throwing 13 2/3 innings of 1.98 ERA ball in the Fall Classic. Unfortunately, he’d again find himself battling injuries in 2019 as he tossed 107 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball.
That’d wind up being Price’s last year in Boston, as new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom packaged up Price and superstar Mookie Betts and sent them to the Dodgers for Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. That trade took place not long before the pandemic forced the shut down, and eventually shortening of the 2020 season. Price would opt out of that season, instead returning in 2021 as a bullpen option for LA. He was reasonably effective in that role, pitching to a 4.03 ERA in 73 2/3 innings, but he did post a career-low strikeout rate of 17.8% and saw his velocity drop.
He rebounded in 2022, remaining in a relief role and pitching 40 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball, posting vastly improved strikeout and walk rates, both of which had been trending in the wrong direction a year earlier. While it’s not necessarily the end of the road for Price, he currently boasts an impressive career record of 157-82 over 2,143 2/3 innings (322 games started out of 400 appearances) with 2,076 career strikeouts. He’s also a five-time All Star, has one World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2018 and an AL Cy Young award (as well as two runner up finishes).
Pirates Win #1 Overall Pick In Draft Lottery
The inaugural MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this evening. The Pirates were awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Nationals and Tigers. Here is the first round:
- Pirates
- Nationals
- Tigers
- Rangers
- Twins
- A’s
- Reds
- Royals
- Rockies
- Marlins
- Angels
- Diamondbacks
- Cubs
- Red Sox
- White Sox
- Giants
- Orioles
- Brewers
- Rays
- Blue Jays
- Cardinals
- Mets
- Mariners
- Guardians
- Braves
- Dodgers
- Padres
- Yankees
- Phillies
- Astros
In previous years, the draft order was fixed in inverse order of the regular season standings. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection. All 18 non-playoff teams were technically in the running for any of the top six picks, albeit with increasingly diminished odds for the clubs with better records. The 12 playoff teams were ordered depending on their postseason finishes, with a team’s revenue sharing status separating teams that were eliminated in the same round.
This year, the Nationals, A’s and Pirates all had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each club had a 16.5% probability. The Reds (13.25%) and Royals (10%) rounded out the top five as the only other teams with a 10% chance or better of securing the top pick. Other than Pittsburgh, the Twins were the biggest beneficiary of the new system, drawing into the top five despite having the 13th-worst record. The Royals fell outside the top ten despite finishing fifth from the bottom in the standings, while Oakland falls from second-worst to sixth.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.
While the draft order is official, there’s obviously plenty of uncertainty as to which players will be at the top of the class. Baseball America updated its preliminary top 100 draft prospects in October, slotting LSU right fielder Dylan Crews, Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez among the most talented prospects. There’ll be plenty of movement once the amateur baseball circuit kicks back off next spring.
Giants Sign Mitch Haniger To Three-Year Deal
The Giants have added one of their desired outfielders, announcing a three-year contract with Mitch Haniger. It’s reportedly a $43.5MM guarantee, and the deal allows him to opt out after two seasons. Haniger is represented by Apex Baseball.
A Mountain View native, Haniger returns to Northern California during his first trip to free agency. He’ll receive a $6MM signing bonus up-front, followed by a $5MM salary in 2023 and $17MM in 2024. At that point, he’ll have to decide whether to bypass the final season and $15.5MM remaining on the deal. Haniger would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.
While this isn’t the outfield splash San Francisco fans have been urgently awaiting, there’s no question Haniger’s an upgrade to a lineup that was middle-of-the-pack in 2022. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons with the Mariners, flashing middle-of-the-order potential at his best. Haniger has topped a .490 slugging mark in three separate campaigns, twice surpassing 25 home runs.
Earlier in his career, the Cal Poly product paired that with strong on-base marks. He reached base at a .366 clip during a 2018 season that arguably stands as his best to date, when he posted a .285/.366/.493 line over 683 plate appearances. That showing earned him an All-Star nod and an 11th-place finish in AL MVP balloting.
Injuries prevented Haniger from following up with another full season. He was off to a slower start in 2019, carrying a .220/.314/.463 line into the first week of June. An unfortunately-placed foul ball resulted in a ruptured testicle which required season-ending surgery, and the health concerns carried into 2020. He underwent core surgery over the 2019-20 offseason and ended up missing the entirety of the abbreviated season. The series of brutal health luck cost him more than 18 months of action, but he returned with an excellent 2021 campaign.
Haniger logged his most extensive workload to date that year, tallying 691 plate appearances over 157 contests. He launched a personal-best 37 homers, although his .253 batting average and .318 on-base percentage were closer to league average marks. That kind of power production in one of the sport’s more pitcher-friendly home venues made him 21 percentage points better than average offensively, by measure of wRC+, and he landed some down-ballot MVP votes for the second time.
This past season again saw Haniger battle injury concerns. A high ankle sprain cost him a few months and he managed just a .246/.308/.429 line in 57 games. That was a disappointing platform season to be sure, but it doesn’t seem to have seriously changed the Giants’ projection of his long-term outlook. Haniger’s batted ball data in that limited look remained strong, as he posted a career-best 91.9 MPH average exit velocity and 47.2% hard contact rate. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .251/.316/.470 line.
In addition to that power-oriented offensive profile, Haniger offers decent value on the other side of the ball. He’s not an option in center field, but he generally rates well in right field. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 21 runs above average in more than 3800 career innings of corner outfield work. Both DRS and Statcast rated him below-average in 2021, but he posted slightly better than par marks in both 2019 and 2022. Haniger’s not likely to win any Gold Gloves, particularly since he’s now headed into his age-32 season. Yet even competent defense would be a major boost for a San Francisco team whose outfielders rated 22 runs below average in 2022 in Statcast’s estimation.
Seattle elected not to issue Haniger a qualifying offer, so the Giants won’t forfeit any draft compensation to bring him aboard. The M’s will not receive any compensation for his departure. With Haniger walking in free agency and Jesse Winker dealt to Milwaukee, Seattle’s likely to continue exploring the market for outfielders to pair with Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández.
The Giants surely aren’t done in the outfield themselves. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters yesterday the team hoped to bring in two outfielders to join Mike Yastrzemski and Joc Pederson, who’d presumably be pushed into a designated hitter role if that transpired. There’s no secret who the top target is. The Giants are one of the top suitors for Aaron Judge, and they’ve reportedly offered him a deal in the $360MM range. Whether the defending AL MVP will leave the Yankees remains to be seen, but the Haniger signing surely doesn’t impact San Francisco’s pursuit at the top of the market.
Haniger’s deal narrowly tops MLBTR’s prediction of three years and $39MM at the start of the offseason. It shouldn’t have a huge impact on the Giants financial breathing room, as it only brings their 2023 payroll to around $143MM. The deal’s $14.5MM luxury tax hit puts their CBT ledger around $156MM, per Roster Resource. That’s nowhere close to the $233MM base tax threshold, nor is their actual spending near the $200MM range the Giants have reached in prior years. They’re sure to make more impactful additions in the coming weeks and months, but Haniger marks their first major step in bolstering their lineup as they try to track down the Dodgers and Padres in a competitive NL West.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants and Haniger had agreed to a three-year, $43.5MM deal. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was first to report the deal contained a post-2024 opt-out clause. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the specific financial breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Brewers Sign Adonis Medina To Minor-League Deal
The Brewers have signed right handed reliever Adonis Medina to a minor league deal, according to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The deal presumably comes with an invite to major league spring training, although that hasn’t been reported. Medina was reported to be close to a move to Korea last night, but instead will stay in the States and look to find opportunities in the Brewers’ bullpen.
Medina, who’ll pitch next season aged 26, threw 23 2/3 innings for the Mets last season, striking out 15.5% of batters and walking 5.5% on the way to a 6.08 ERA. He spent most of the year shuttling between Triple-A and the big leagues, and was optioned nine times during the season. At the top level of the minors, Medina had a 4.65 ERA through 31 innings.
Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Phillies in 2014, he worked his way up through their minor league system, and went on to pitch 11 2/3 innings between 2020-21 to a 3.86 ERA. He was claimed off waivers by the Pirates prior to the 2022 season, but was designated for assignment and traded to the Mets at the start of the regular season.
Medina leans heavily on a sinker-slider mix, but works in a low-90s four-seamer, changeup and curveball into the mix. He’ll give the Brewers a bit of upper-minors pitching depth heading into the new season.
Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market
Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).
Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.
Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.
Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.
With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.
It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.
Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea
The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.
Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.
That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.
It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.
That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.
Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.
Cubs, Brailyn Marquez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Brailyn Marquez, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. He’d been non-tendered last month, removing him from the 40-man roster.
After a couple weeks on the open market, Marquez returns to the only organization he’s known. Signed out the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 international amateur period, Marquez blossomed into one of the game’s most talented pitching prospects. Owner of a fastball that worked into the upper 90s, he appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects league-wide in both 2020 and ’21. Shaky control led to some speculation he could wind up in the bullpen as a potential high-leverage reliever.
Unfortunately, injuries have thrown off that once-promising career. Marquez made his big league debut with one appearance during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch since then. He’s spent each of the past two years on the minor league injured list, and he underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder in June. Chicago decided at year’s end to cut him from the 40-man roster as a result.
Still just 24 in January, Marquez will try to get back onto the roster in 2023. He clearly has a fair bit of potential when healthy, but it remains to be seen what kind of form he’ll show after the rehab from the shoulder procedure.