Latest On Cardinals’ Free Agent Targets
The Cardinals have yet to have much engagement with the offseason’s top-tier free agents, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. This relates to both starting pitchers and position players, as in regards to the top of the shortstop market, the Cards “have remained on the outskirts of the shortstop discussions, staying aware but not plunging in,” Goold writes.
This isn’t to say the the Cardinals aren’t active, as the team is focusing on its need behind the plate. Cards officials will be meeting with the agents for Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez, and such other free agent catchers as Omar Narvaez and Mike Zunino have also been explored by the team, as well as trade candidates like the Athletics’ Sean Murphy or any of the Blue Jays’ three backstops.
Catcher is the most pressing need for the Cardinals, so it isn’t surprising that the team might be looking to get its catching situation settled before moving onto other targets. With Adam Wainwright re-sigining and Nolan Arenado passing on his opt-out clause, St. Louis had two major bits of business settled before the offseason even officially began, perhaps giving the team some extra flexibility to proceed a bit more slowly on other matters.
Signing Contreras would certainly count as a headline-grabbing move, as the longtime Cubs catcher is projected to land a four-year, $84MM deal, and would also cost draft pick compensation since he rejected Chicago’s qualifying offer. $84MM would count as the second-biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent, behind only Matt Holliday‘s $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason. That deal was also a re-signing, as Holliday had become a familiar quantity to the Cardinals after spending the last two-plus months of the 2009 season in a St. Louis uniform.
In short, making a big free agent splash usually isn’t the preferred strategy of Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. This obviously doesn’t rule out Contreras altogether, but it might make St. Louis more open to trade talks with the A’s or Jays in the catching search. That said, signing Contreras for just money and a draft pick might be preferable to giving up a big trade package for Murphy, Alejandro Kirk, or Gabriel Moreno.
On the pitching side, the Cardinals are known to be looking at re-signing with Jose Quintana. For the bullpen, the Cards are targeting high-strikeout relievers — as Goold notes, the team is looking to add more swing-and-miss after finishing near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage. St. Louis is looking at pitching options both in North America and overseas.
Cubs Interested In Dansby Swanson
The Cubs are among the teams with interest in shortstop Dansby Swanson, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Chicago has been known to have interest in the free agent shortstop market, though Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts were the shortstops more linked to the Cubs.
Still, with so many other teams keen on landing a top-tier shortstop, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs have at least considered every member of the “big four” — Swanson, Bogaerts, Correa, and Trea Turner. Bogaerts and Correa have stood out from the pack since the Cubs have reportedly had interest in Correa for years, while Bogaerts’ ties to Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer string back to Hoyer’s days in the Red Sox organization.
That said, Swanson naturally has plenty of appeal to any team looking for an upgrade at shortstop. The former first overall pick is coming off the best of his seven MLB seasons, as Swanson had a career-high 6.4 fWAR over 696 plate appearances and the full 162 games with the Braves. Swanson’s contributions came on both offense (.277/.329/.447 with 25 homers and 18 steals) and defense, with his first career Gold Glove and a range of above-average marks from public defensive metrics.
Swanson turns 29 in February, so he is still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that might have a few too many roster holes to be a full-fledged contender in 2023, though it depends on how aggressive Chicago plans to be this winter. Like Bogaerts and Turner, Swanson comes at the extra price of draft pick compensation, since all of these three shortstops rejected a qualifying offer (Correa was ineligible for a QO after receiving one last winter). Swanson is the second-youngest of the big four shortstops, though he is generally seen as the member of the group who has the smallest price tag, comparatively speaking. MLBTR projected him for a seven-year, $154MM deal, which still ranks fifth on our top 50 free agents list — Swanson was ranked behind only Aaron Judge and the other three shortstops.
It stands to reason that pretty much every team (i.e. the Phillies, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Red Sox) looking into any of the top shortstops might have some interest in other members of the group, a la the Cubs. That said, the Braves have been the only team known to have a direct interest in Swanson himself, and if Swanson did sign elsewhere, Atlanta isn’t likely to look to Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts as a replacement.
Royals Hire Zach Bove As Assistant Pitching Coach
Zach Bove is the latest new face on the Royals’ coaching staff, as Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo (Twitter link) reports that Bove is leaving the Twins’ staff to become Kansas City’s new assistant pitching coach. Bove has been in Minnesota for the last four seasons, working in the assistant pitching coordinator role in 2022.
It marks another Royals hire from inside the AL Central, as K.C. just named Brian Sweeney (formerly the Guardians’ bullpen coach) as the team’s new pitching coach earlier this week. Beyond these hirings, the Royals also named Matt Quatraro as their new manager and Paul Hoover is the new bench coach, with both men coming from the Rays organization. Additionally, longtime former Giants coach José Alguacil is coming aboard as the Royals’ new infield coach.
Bove is one of several pitching coaches and coordinators around baseball who came to the majors from the college ranks, as Bove was a pitching coach at the College of Central Florida for seven years before he joined the Twins. With more of a new-school, analytical approach, Bove brings some different perspectives towards the Royals’ stated goal of helping bring their younger pitchers along at the MLB level. Brady Singer pitched well in 2022, but with Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar all struggling, the Royals haven’t gotten nearly the expected results from the pitchers they thought would be the backbone of the team’s latest rebuild.
Aaron Judge “Increasingly Likely” To Land A Nine-Year Contract
It seems as though teams interested in signing Aaron Judge will have to commit to the slugger for the rest of his 30’s, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that “it appears increasingly likely” that Judge will land nine guaranteed years in his next contract.
It isn’t known if Judge is necessarily prioritizing contract length or a record-setting average annual value, but the reigning MVP might very well have the leverage for both. Mike Trout‘s current deal with the Angels is the benchmark ($36MM) in terms of average annual value for position players, so if Judge was looking to top Trout’s record, it would take nine years and more than $324MM.
That isn’t far off MLBTR’s projection of an eight-year, $332MM deal for Judge, which works out to a $41.5MM AAV. If Judge is only looking to top Trout’s average salary whatsoever (rather than by a $5.5MM amount), technically a $332MM deal over nine years would do it. But, it could be that Judge wants to move the goalposts significantly forward for future star free agents.
Going into a ninth guaranteed season (which would be Judge’s age-39 year) might not have much appeal to teams if they’re not getting much or any break on the AAV. That said, Judge is perhaps a unique enough case that any of his big-market suitors might not mind the extra year — if a team is already willing to pay Judge in the $36MM range for his age-38 season, the ninth year might be seen as the cost of doing business.
If a ninth guaranteed season is now the going rate to sign Judge, it could put the Dodgers out of the running. “The Dodgers are believed to want Judge only on a short-term, high-dollar deal,” Rosenthal writes, which matches the club’s general strategy in pursuing any free agents. This isn’t to say that L.A. doesn’t abandon that strategy in certain circumstances, as it was just last winter that Freddie Freeman (heading into his age-32 season) was inked a six-year, $162MM deal. But, with Judge in position to at least double Freeman’s total salary, he might not be a fit for a Dodger team that could devote its resources towards acquiring other star players.
The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are the teams publicly linked to Judge’s market, and Rosenthal reports that some other teams have at least checked in on Judge, though it isn’t known if any of these mystery suitors are making a serious push. Last week, reports suggested that New York had made Judge an offer in the range of eight years and $300MM, and the Yankees weren’t viewing that as a final offer. Adding a ninth guaranteed season at the same AAV would result in a nine-year, $337.5MM offer.
Latest On Mets’ Search For Starting Pitching
3:10PM: While the Mets are looking at several free agent pitchers, the New York Post’s Mike Puma tweets that the club is also actively pursuing trade possibilities.
11:30AM: After the Mets saw Jacob deGrom leave for Texas and sign a five-year, $185MM deal with the Rangers, it seems certain they’ll move quickly to find other ways to upgrade their rotation. As Andy Martino of SNY reports, the next best pitcher available, Justin Verlander is now “front and center” for the team, and the team is “determined to land” either Verlander or Carlos Rodon.
The loss of deGrom is surely a tough pill to swallow for the Mets, but after seeing the contract he received from Texas, the opportunity to bring in Verlander on a shorter deal may well appeal to owner Steve Cohen and co. While Verlander is older, and will play the 2023 season at 40, he is coming off a dominant Cy Young-winning season which saw him hurl 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball, striking out 220 batters in the process.
A potential signing of Verlander would likely come at a higher annual salary than the $37MM deGrom received, but only over a two or three year deal, and it does seem like that is their preferred option for older pitchers. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, their offer to deGrom was around three-years, $120MM. Pivoting to Verlander on a shorter term deal would give them a bit more payroll flexibility over the long term while maintaining the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Max Scherzer that the Mets covet.
While the Mets have shown their financial muscle in recent years, there are other teams interested in Verlander (such as the Yankees and Dodgers) so it’s no guarantee that they land him. In that case, it seems their next option would be Rodon. The left-hander is coming off a strong platform year in San Francisco, where he tossed 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with 237 strikeouts.
Rodon is a lot younger than Verlander (he turns 30 in a week) so would likely be looking at a longer term contract. MLBTR predicted he’d land a five-year, $140MM contract, which would give him an AAV of $28MM. While it seems Rodon is their second choice to Verlander, they are very much in on him and met with him on Zoom earlier this week.
While a frontline starter to pair with Scherzer looks to be the top priority for the Mets, Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that they’re looking to also add a starter from the mid-tier of options as well. Martino cites Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker, Kyle Gibson, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana as the main options for the team in that category. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that they’ve been talking with Jameson Taillon as well.
Zach Eflin‘s three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays came in one year and $18MM higher than MLBTR’s prediction, and does suggest that the market for mid-tier starting pitching could be quite lucrative this year.
The Mets currently have Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez penciled into the rotation. The addition of either Rodon or Verlander plus a solid, mid-tier option would give them a formidable rotation, and allow them to shift two of Megill, Peterson and Hernandez into depth/long-relief roles.
Brewers Sign Eddy Alvarez To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have signed infielder Eddy Alvarez to a minor league deal, according to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The deal includes an invite to major league spring training.
Alvarez, 32, played the past season with the Dodgers, appearing in 14 games. He hit just .160/.154/.160 in 27 plate appearances while appearing at four positions. He went far better at Triple-A, where he slashed .322/.439/.554 with eight home runs in 47 games. He logged most of his time at shortstop and second base in the minors, but also spent a little bit of time in the outfield and at third.
Alvarez actually won a silver medal at the 2014 Winter Olympics in speed skating, but opted to chase his baseball dream soon after and signed for the White Sox as a free agent that year. After coming up through their minor league system, he was purchased by the Marlins in 2019 and made his big league debut in 2020.
Across two seasons for the Marlins, Alvarez hit a combined .188/.287/.287 with a single home run in 142 plate appearances before departing as a free agent at the conclusion of the 2021 season.
Alvarez will compete for a bench spot in Milwaukee during the spring, but in any event will provide the Brewers – who recently traded infielder Kolten Wong to Seattle – with a bit of middle infield depth in 2023.
Minor League Moves: Hartlieb, Koch, Motter
The Marlins added pitcher Geoff Hartlieb to a minor league deal, per Baseball America’s minor league transactions page. Harltlieb, 29 next week, pitched for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022, tossing 61 innings of 5.16 ERA ball. He appeared in the big leagues for the Pirates and briefly the Mets, throwing 66 1/3 innings across three seasons with a 7.46 ERA. He had a slightly below average 20.5% strikeout rate against a 14.4% walk rate.
Here’s some other minor league signings from around the sport:
- Matt Koch has landed a deal with the Rockies for 2023. The 32-year-old pitched a handful of innings for the Mariners in 2022, but spent most of the year at Triple-A, tossing 38 1/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball. He spent four seasons in Arizona, throwing 129 2/3 innings of 5.00 ERA ball across 16 starts and 20 relief appearances. He doesn’t walk many batters, but doesn’t strikeout many either, averaging just five per nine innings across his big league career.
- The Braves re-signed Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel to minor league deals. Wilson, 26, largely worked as a reliever at Double-A, tossing 44 innings with a 2.45 ERA while striking out 14.9 batters per nine innings. He made a handful of appearances at Triple-A, and should start the year there in 2023. Rangel, 25, made 26 starts at Double-A, working to a 5.81 ERA across 114 2/3 innings.
- The White Sox brought back 30-year-old outfielder Mark Payton. He appeared in just eight games in the big leagues this year, tallying three hits in 25 plate appearances. He had a strong season at Triple-A, hitting .293/.369/.539 with 25 home runs. He’s yet to translate that to the majors though, and has a lifetime .164/.261/.180 line in 40 games for the Reds and White Sox since his 2020 debut.
- Daniel Duarte re-signed with the Reds for 2023. Celebrating his 26th birthday tomorrow, Duarte spent most of the season on the injured list, but appeared in three games for the Reds in 2022, giving up three runs in 2 2/3 innings. At Triple-A, he worked to a 9.39 ERA across 7 2/3 innings.
- The Athletics added right-handed pitcher Jasseel De La Cruz to a minor league pact. The 25-year-old was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Braves, and came up through their system as a solid pitching prospect. He struggled with injury in 2022, tossing just 26 1/3 innings in total, with 12 1/3 of those coming at Triple-A. There, he had an 8.03 ERA across seven appearances.
- The Padres brought back Mexican pitcher Efrain Contreras on a minor league deal. The 22-year-old made 17 starts at High-A in 2022, working to a 5.74 ERA across 53 1/3 innings. While those numbers don’t look promising, he has averaged 10.2 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings across three seasons in the minor leagues.
- Utilityman Taylor Motter has joined the Cardinals for the upcoming season. Motter, 32, has appeared in the big leagues for six different teams since 2016, hitting a combined .191/.262/.309 with ten home runs. He’s appeared at every defensive position outside of catcher and center field, but primarily handles the middle-infield spots. He made a handful of appearances for the Reds in 2022, but spent most of the year at Triple-A where he slashed .254/.357/.523 with 20 home runs for the Reds’ and Braves’ affiliates.
- Puerto Rican shortstop Shawn Ross and the Pirates agreed to a minor league contract for the 2023 season. Ross, 22, played for Grand Junction in Independent ball in 2022, hitting 280/.408/.614 with 24 home runs.
Orioles Met With Noah Syndergaard
As the Orioles search for additions to their rotation, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that they had a Zoom call with Noah Syndergaard yesterday. Syndergaard is a free agent after playing out the past season with the Angels and Phillies.
It’s been widely reported that the Orioles have been searching for starting pitching, but avoiding the very top of the free agent class, so it makes sense that Syndergaard would have appeal to them.
Syndergaard, 30, turned in a 3.94 ERA across 134 2/3 innings in 2022, his first full year back from 2020 Tommy John surgery. He started his one-year, $21MM deal with the Angels but was dealt to the Phillies at the deadline. The former Met’s fastball was well down from his pre-surgery days, as it dropped around five miles an hour to sit at 94.5 mph in 2022, while his slider that once sat at 93.1 mph dropped to 85.1. As a result, his strikeout rate fell considerably (16.8 % vs 24.5% in 2019).
Today’s version of Syndergaard might not be the overpowering one that earned the nickname ‘Thor’ at the Mets, but it still amounts to a very valuable pitcher, and he’s still young enough that perhaps he can claw back some of that lost velocity in 2023. To that end, ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that Syndergaard has been taking an analytic approach to his offseason work, training at Driveline and Tread Athletics. MLBTR predicted Syndergaard would receive a three-year, $36MM deal this winter.
The Orioles currently have some combination of Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez penciled into their rotation. It’s a young group with plenty of question marks, so it certainly makes sense that they’d look to bump one or two of those names in favor of an external veteran addition or two.
Whether or not Syndergaard winds up in Baltimore, it seems almost certain that they’ll have a few names in their pitching ranks. The Orioles are looking to build from a promising 83-79 season in 2022, and the rotation is an area of focus. Should they miss on Syndergaard, the likes of Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon and Chris Bassitt could all have appeal.
Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Volpe, Mervis, Bae, Macko
With the Rule 5 Draft looming, we’ll touch on a few more names who could find themselves with a new organization in the next few days. We’ll also start our pivot to offseason mode, highlighting prospects who are in the news.
Five BHPs In The News
Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA
If not for a lat strain, Rodriguez would have graduated from prospect lists. The Orioles are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, but Rodriguez reportedly has an inside path to an Opening Day role, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The consensus top pitching prospect in the league wields upwards of five above-average offerings with a superstar-caliber changeup as his headliner. Rodriguez’s rookie campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Orioles can build upon their surprising 2022 success.
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 511 PA, 21 HR, 50 SB, .249/.342/.460
The Yankees aren’t expected to be active participants in the shortstop market this winter largely because Volpe and Oswald Peraza await in the wings. Peraza already has a successful 57 plate appearance stint in the Majors, albeit with worrisome exit velocities. Getting back to Volpe, he only has 99 plate appearances of experience in Triple-A and might merit further seasoning. He hit just .236/.313/.404 in the minor’s highest level, good for only a 91 wRC+. His swing is geared for extreme fly ball rates. As a result, his batting average might play below his raw tools. If he continues hitting over 50 percent fly balls, he profiles as a future 40-homer threat as he ages into more strength. Initially, he might frustrate with too many softly hit flies and pop-outs. There’s also potential for him to tighten up his launch angle to sacrifice a few home runs for better outcomes on average. Volpe has multiple pathways to superstardom.
Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 512 PA, 36 HR, 2 SB, .309/.379/.606
A frequent guest of this column in recent months, Mervis charged through three levels while greatly improving his contact rate and plate discipline at each stop. For icing on the cake, he turned in a quality performance in the AFL. He’s very much in consideration for an Opening Day role as the Cubs first baseman or designated hitter. Chicago is reportedly on the hunt for a first baseman, but that won’t necessarily affect Mervis since designated hitter is also vacant. He profiles as a way-too-early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.
Ji Hwan Bae, 23, 2B/OF, PIT (MLB)
(AAA) 473 PA, 8 HR, 30 SB, .289/.362/.430
Bae turned in 37 solid plate appearances in the Majors. Like Peraza above, Bae posted an above-average batting line despite worrisome quality of contact. He mostly played second base and shortstop in the minors with some time in center field too. Outfield might be his best path forward on the Major League roster. There’s a whiff of Tommy Edman to Bae. He has defensive utility, a speed-first profile, and makes low-angle contact leading to high BABIPs and rare home runs. The Pirates are said to be considering middle infield additions which could affect Bae’s Opening Day assignment.
Adam Macko, 21, SP, TOR (A+)
38.1 IP, 14.09 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.99 ERA
The Blue Jays acquired Macko as half of the return for Teoscar Hernandez. A mystery injury prevented Macko from working much this season, though he did appear in the AFL. The upcoming season is his Rule 5 evaluation year which might push him toward a bullpen role. He has the stuff to start – a three-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings. The southpaw is inconsistent, often losing command of his secondary offerings. Predictably, his fastball plays down when this happens. When he’s on, he mows through low-minors hitters as evidenced by 14.09 K/9 and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.
Five More Rule 5ers
Kameron Misner, TBR (24): Originally acquired in exchange for Joey Wendle, Misner has plus discipline, power, and speed. He’s a capable defensive centerfielder. Misner has yet to taste Triple-A despite never posting a below-average batting line. His biggest weakness is a lofty strikeout rate, but the rest of his profile seemingly supports this drawback. Among hitters, Misner would top my personal Rule 5 wishlist as a fifth outfielder and potential righty-masher.
Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Although he lacks Misner’s physicality and upside, Simon might be even more likely to be selected. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League following solid High- and Double-A campaigns. At the plate, Simon hides swing-and-miss issues with aggression. He’s developed sneaky pop and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Simon is a utility man who fits best at second or third base.
Andres Chaparro, NYY (23): The Yankees infield depth likely led them to leave Chaparro unprotected. He’s coming off an impressive performance at Double-A including a .289/.369/.594 line with 19 home runs in 271 plate appearances. The main knock against him is a lack of durability. He’s a corner infielder by trade.
Adrian Hernandez, TOR (22): A diminutive right-hander (by baseball standards), Hernandez is a changeup specialist who succeeds by keeping opponents off balance. Between his stature and pitching approach, it’s an unusual profile. ‘Unusual’ tends to do well in the current meta. Hernandez pitched well early in 2022. He struggled upon returning from a shoulder injury.
Cam Devanney, MIL (25): Although he’s never really appeared on prospect lists, Devanney made a swing adjustment last season. He now looks like a sure-fire Major Leaguer. He flashed power and adequate discipline at Double-A and performed well in a brief trial at Triple-A. His most attractive trait is utility – he’s proven himself a capable defender at shortstop, second, and third base.
Brewers Reportedly Planning To Hold Onto Adames, Burnes, Woodruff Into 2023 Season
The Brewers have told interested teams they’re unwilling to trade co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff or shortstop Willy Adames, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold declined comment on any specific individuals but confirmed generally the team plans to “build around” their group of core players “to do the best we can here in 2023” (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).
Burnes, Woodruff and Adames would certainly qualify as core players on the Milwaukee roster. All three are entering their penultimate season of arbitration eligibility, which raised loose speculation that a Brewers team with a mid-tier payroll could look to move them at the peak of their trade value. However, Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported at the outset of the offseason Milwaukee planned to build around their core group. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic similarly suggested last night the Brew Crew was unlikely to deal any of that trio before the start of the season.
The early stages of Milwaukee’s offseason haven’t exactly followed that script. The Brewers parted ways with relievers Brent Suter and Brad Boxberger in the first few weeks. They exercised a $10MM option on Kolten Wong and tendered an arbitration contract with a projected $11.2MM salary to Hunter Renfroe, but both players immediately found themselves in trade rumors. They’re now division rivals in the AL West. Milwaukee sent Renfroe to the Angels for a trio of pre-arbitration pitchers two weeks ago. This afternoon, they dealt Wong to the Mariners in a roughly cash-neutral swap that brought in corner outfielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker (who’s making $8.25MM next season) and arbitration-eligible infielder Abraham Toro.
Subtracting Renfroe and Wong while adding Winker, Toro and pitchers Elvis Peguero and Janson Junk (acquired from Anaheim) probably represents an early downgrade for the Milwaukee roster. Yet parting ways with productive but not elite regulars like Renfroe and Wong is certainly not as impactful as dealing away any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames would be. That’s particularly true in the case of the Wong swap, which wasn’t intended to slash payroll so much as dealing from an area of roster strength to add a potential offensive upgrade. Milwaukee has highly-regarded prospect Brice Turang as an option to step in at second base, while Toro joins Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau as internal candidates to play second or third.
The Brewers took a similar tack at last summer’s trade deadline. The Josh Hader trade was much maligned — both at the time and in retrospect — as Milwaukee subtracted one of the sport’s top relievers in the midst of a playoff race. Hader’s lofty arbitration salary and window of control dwindling to a season and a half certainly played a part in the front office’s calculus, but the deal wasn’t designed to wave the white flag on the 2022 season. The Brewers brought back a highly-regarded late-inning pitcher of their own in Taylor Rogers and added prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser to the organization. Rogers underperformed during his few months with the Brew Crew, and now-former president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged in retrospect he didn’t completely foresee how poorly received the loss of Hader would be in the clubhouse. Yet even if that trade didn’t work as intended, it’s clear it wasn’t designed to kick off any kind of rebuild.
Adames is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.2MM arbitration salary. Burnes and Woodruff are each forecasted at or just above $11MM. Those are notable figures but still significant bargains relative to those players’ productions. It’d make them the subject of strong interest on the trade market but also key contributors to a Brewers team looking to improve upon last year’s 86-win season. None of those salaries are so exorbitant Milwaukee would feel any urgent financial pressure to clear them from the books.
The Brewers opened the 2022 season with a payroll just under $132MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Resource presently projects their 2023 commitments — including arbitration estimates — around $116MM. Even if owner Mark Attanasio isn’t keen on a significant payroll spike, Arnold and his staff should have plenty of room to retain each of Adames, Woodruff and Burnes while making a few targeted upgrades elsewhere on the roster. That’s before considering the possibility of trades subtracting a few more ancillary players. Rowdy Tellez, Adrian Houser and Keston Hiura are all speculative trade candidates this offseason, and it’s not completely out of the question the Brewers field offers on Winker.
Adding another bat in the corner outfield/DH mix could be in order. Winker’s probably best suited for bat-only work if he’s on the roster, which would leave right field to Tyrone Taylor as things currently stand. Milwaukee has a few prospects who could factor into center field, with Garrett Mitchell leading the group after debuting late in 2022, but could look for a veteran complement to add some depth. The Brewers also saw catcher Omar Narváez hit free agency, meaning they could explore ways to upgrade on Víctor Caratini. First base, presently manned by Tellez, is another area where the club may try to inject life into an offense that was only a bit above league average this past season.