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The Opener: Rookie Of The Year, QO Decisions, Soto

By Nick Deeds | November 18, 2024 at 8:52am CDT

On the heels of an early-morning signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Rookie of the Year announced:

The four major BBWAA awards are being announced this week, and today things kick off with the Rookie of the Year announcement. In the NL, Pirates righty Paul Skenes and Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill are the leading contenders, with Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio rounding out the finalists in one of the stronger rookie classes in recent memory. Meanwhile, in the AL, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is generally considered to be a slight favorite over Yankees right-hander Luis Gil and Yankees catcher Austin Wells for the award. The winners are set to be announced at 5pm CT this evening.

Today’s awards come with additional intrigue beyond the hardware itself, as well. Skenes did not receive a full year of service time in 2024 due to his debut being held off until mid-May, but he’ll earn that full year of MLB service if/when he finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. Meanwhile, the Padres, Orioles, and Yankees have a chance to earn Prospect Promotion Incentive picks. The Padres will be awarded a PPI pick if Merrill wins the NL award this evening, while the Orioles or Yankees would be awarded a pick if Cowser or Wells respectively win in the AL. Skenes, Gil, and Chourio are all unable to earn their clubs PPI picks for a variety of reasons: Skenes wasn’t rostered long enough to garner a full year of MLB service as previously mentioned, while Gil was not featured on two qualifying top 100 prospects lists and Chourio signed a pre-debut extension with the Brewers, rendering him ineligible for a pick.

2. QO Decisions looming:

The deadline for players to accept the Qualifying Offer is tomorrow, and this weekend saw a pair of reports regarding players on the bubble of the QO decision: Reds right-hander Nick Martinez is expected to accept the one-year offer, while Mets righty Luis Severino is expected to join Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta in rejecting the offer. That trio of players have generally been regarded as the three most likely to accept a QO among the players to whom it was extended. Obviously, top-of-the-market players like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes are certain to reject the QO as they search for nine-figure contracts in free agency, but could a mid-level free agent such as Christian Walker or Sean Manaea surprise the baseball world and accept?

Even if all the remaining players intend to reject their QO and test free agency, the looming deadline could serve as a springboard for negotiations on a multi-year deal, either with their current club or a new one. Left-hander Tyler Anderson and first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the recent examples of players who signed multi-year deals after being tagged with the QO but before the deadline to accept or reject it.

3. Soto to meet with the Yankees:

Speaking of Soto, the market’s most sought-after free agent met with a contingent from the Mets led by owner Steve Cohen over the weekend. That comes on the heels of Soto reportedly meeting with the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes that Soto is scheduled to meet with the incumbent Yankees, where the reigning AL champs are set to make their pitch to Soto and agent Scott Boras on why he should stay in the Bronx alongside fellow outfield star Aaron Judge. These early meetings between Soto and clubs have seemingly been largely introductory in nature without formal offers being made or figures exchanged, though that may not be the case for the Yankees given the fact that Soto is already plenty familiar with the organization. Will today’s meeting get the market for the winter’s biggest free agent moving?

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 11:07pm CDT

Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market. Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period. If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools. The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision. This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star. It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15. As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers. Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question. As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 9:06pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

Red Sox Interested In Blake Snell

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 5:46pm CDT

Upgrading the rotation is a known goal for the Red Sox this winter, with such trade targets and free agents as Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and old friend Nathan Eovaldi already reportedly on Boston’s radar in the offseason’s early stages. Blake Snell is another prominent name also under consideration, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (in a recent appearance on the Baseball Bar-B-Cast) said the Sox “are talking with” the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

The Red Sox were somewhat lightly linked to Snell’s market when he was a free agent last year, as while reports suggested the Sox had some level of interest in the left-hander, other pitchers like Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery were ahead of Snell on Boston’s wish list. As it turned out, the Sox didn’t end up landing any of the top-tier arms available on the market, even though Snell and Montgomery were both available deep into Spring Training, and Montgomery didn’t end up signing with the Diamondbacks until Opening Day.

At this point in the winter calendar, it is fair to assume the Red Sox are “in on” several pitchers to one degree or another, so it isn’t any surprise that they’ve reached out to Snell out of due diligence alone. That said, the two parties are a natural fit, which is likely why MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco each predicted Snell would indeed sign with Boston as part of our site’s top 50 free agent projections (Snell ranks fourth on our list, and is predicted to land a five-year, $160MM contract).

The Red Sox have largely eschewed making splashy signings in recent years, as the club has been more focused on reloading the minor league system and finding value signings than making a truly aggressive bid to contend. After three straight non-winning seasons, patience is running thin within the fanbase, and there is some increased pressure on the Sox front office to make a big-budget signing as a clear marker that the club wants to win. Landing a top pitcher like Snell would certainly count in this category, and give the Sox the ace-level pitcher the rotation so clearly needs.

Snell’s extended stay in free agency ended last winter when he joined the Giants in mid-March, and the abbreviated nature of his Spring Training prep initially seemed to be leading to a disastrous season. The left-hander’s first three months in San Francisco resulted in two injured-list stints and a 9.51 ERA over six starts and 23 2/3 innings, and yet as has so often been the case in Snell’s career, he only got better as the season developed. In the most extreme example yet of Snell’s second-half surges, he had a phenomenal 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts and 80 1/3 innings, once again re-establishing himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers. As such, Snell chose to exercise the opt-out clause in his two-year, $62MM deal with San Francisco, foregoing the $30MM owed to him in 2025 in order to chase a pricier long-term commitment.

This isn’t to say that some of the questions that clouded Snell’s market last winter have entirely disappeared. He was again hampered by injuries, and is now another year old, as he’ll turn 32 in December. However, one key difference between Snell’s free agent status from last year to this year is that he no longer has a qualifying offer attached to his services. Snell rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer last winter, and since the QO can only be issued to a player once in his career, a team is free to sign Snell without having to surrender any compensation.

Boston would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money as well as its second-highest pick in next year’s draft in order to sign a qualified free agent. It can be argued that Snell’s lack of QO status is a bigger deal for luxury tax payors, as since they face a stiffer penalty for signing one of the 13 free agents who were issued qualifying offers this offseason, a pitcher like Snell might have more appeal than a qualified pitcher like Fried or Corbin Burnes.

Still, the Red Sox would certainly love to avoid losing a draft pick if they can help it, plus the Sox could also be considering Snell and a qualified free agent. For instance, the Sox are interested in Juan Soto and Teoscar Hernandez among the position player class, in addition to their quest for rotation help. Nick Pivetta also appears likely to reject Boston’s qualifying offer, so the Sox would get a compensatory pick back if Pivetta signed elsewhere.

Mets Sign Donovan Walton To Minors Contract

By Mark Polishuk | November 17, 2024 at 4:31pm CDT

The Mets signed Donovan Walton to a minor league contract, according to the infielder’s MLB.com profile page. Walton elected to become a free agent at the start of November when the Giants outrighted him off their 40-man roster — since Walton had previously been outrighted in his career, he has the right to opt for free agency rather than accept another outright assignment.

The 30-year-old appeared in nine games after San Francisco selected Walton’s contract to the active roster in mid-September, which marked Walton’s first big league playing time since 2022. Walton broke into the majors with the Mariners in 2019 and played in 37 games over parts of four seasons before Seattle traded him to the Giants in May 2022. That season was cut short by a shoulder surgery that also kept him on the shelf for a good chunk of the 2023 campaign, as Walton spent the entirety of that season in the Giants’ minor league system.

If the 2023 season was just about getting back to good health for Walton, he looked sharper this season in hitting .306/.380/.441 over 387 plate appearances with Triple-A Sacramento. This more or less matches his .287/.370/.454 slash line across 975 career PA at the Triple-A level, but Walton hasn’t been able to carry that production into the Show, as he has hit only .174/.227/.305 in 205 PA with the Mariners and Giants.

Walton has mostly split his time between the two middle infield positions, though he has some experience as a third baseman and left fielder. Though his lack of offense limits his ceiling, Walton is a left-handed hitter who can play multiple positions, making him an interesting option for teams looking to fill out a roster. The Mets can give Walton a look during Spring Training and see what he can bring to the table as a depth piece for either the big league squad or at Triple-A.

Free Agent Faceoff: Max Scherzer/Walker Buehler

By Nick Deeds | November 17, 2024 at 2:17pm CDT

Three years ago today, the results of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Young award were announced. The top of the ballot featured a somewhat controversial battle between the elite rate production of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the volume offered by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes ultimately taking home the trophy. Finishing just below them in balloting, however, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.

Flash forward three years, and things have gone quite well for the first- and second-place finishers for that year’s Cy Young in the NL. Burnes enters this winter as the consensus top free agent pitcher available and could be in line for a guarantee that reaches $200MM, while Wheeler opted against returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this year and now stands as a Cy Young finalist once again alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are also headed into free agency this winter, although neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure guarantee like those of Burnes and Wheeler.

Instead, both hurlers figure to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation talents after facing adversity in recent years. Scherzer and Buehler landed the 33rd and 37th spots on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list this winter, as we predicted one-year deals worth $16MM and $15MM respectively for each player. While both hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and could wind up signing similar contracts this winter, the pair took different paths to get to this point over recent years and their unique challenges and assets could inform the preferences of prospective suitors.

Scherzer’s struggles in recent seasons have been almost entirely about health rather than performance. After turning in 11 utterly dominant starts for the Dodgers down the stretch following a trade from the Nationals at that summer’s trade deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season came to an abrupt end when he was forced out of Game 2 of the NLCS due to a dead arm after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch again for L.A. in that series and ultimately departed the club on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves in the series.

After landing with the Mets on a three-year guarantee worth $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 campaign for New York but was limited to just 23 starts due to oblique issues. It was the fewest starts he had made in a full season during his career, and his 145 1/3 innings of work, while hardly out of the ordinary for a starter in recent years, was similarly a full-season career low. The right-hander bounced back in terms of volume in 2023, making 27 starts for the Mets and Rangers throughout the regular season, but suffered on the performance front as he posted a somewhat middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of work. Those results improved significantly (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his trade to Texas, but much like 2021 Scherzer struggled with injuries late in the season and was hampered during the playoffs, ultimately pitching just 9 2/3 innings total during the club’s championship run.

While Scherzer’s declining volume and production were somewhat concerning, the future Hall of Famer was still clearly among the top pitchers in the sport even as he began to struggle with injury. Over those aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer combined for 50 starts where he posted an excellent 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate in 298 innings of work. That performance was good for 6.7 fWAR, good for 23rd among all starters across those two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.

Unfortunately for the veteran, however, things took a substantial turn for the worse in 2024 as he suffered from the first truly injury-plagued season of his career. After undergoing back surgery last offseason, Scherzer’s was expected to miss at least the first couple of months of action. That timetable was further delayed by nerve issues, and by the time shoulder fatigue brought his season to an early end in September he had made just nine total starts this season. Those nine starts saw Scherzer pitch effectively, though not close to the ace-level production he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of work this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, striking out 22.6% of opponents faced while walking just 5.6%.

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s certainly easy to imagine Scherzer providing high quality production whenever he’s on the field, given the league average results he posted while fighting through injury this year and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Young award. With that being said, the veteran will celebrate his 41st birthday in July of 2025, and his increasingly detrimental injury woes in recent years leave plenty of questions about just how many starts Scherzer can be counted on for in 2025, particularly in the postseason given the injury questions he faced in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.

By contrast, Buehler comes with far fewer questions regarding his overall health. That’s to be expected from a player who is a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s not to say Buehler hasn’t had health issues of his own, of course, as Buehler had nearly two full calendar years of his career wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on May 7 of this year after having last pitched in a major league game on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few injury woes throughout his career aside from his two career elbow surgeries, with a bout of hip inflammation this year and a rib injury back in 2018 representing the only other significant injuries of his big league career.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgery was actually the second of Buehler’s pitching career. It’s not uncommon for players to struggle after going under the knife a second time, though some pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the procedure twice and gone on to be effective for years following their second surgery. Buehler also averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging sign as it’s right in line with his average prior to going under the knife.

That’s not to say Buehler lacks question marks, however. The right-hander’s 2024 season was nothing short of atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that were both more than 30% worse than league average by ERA- and FIP-, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were both the worst marks of his career since he became a full time player in 2018. While Buehler’s solid 15 innings of work during the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) offer some reason for optimism, particularly as he struck out a third of his opponents in the NLCS and World Series, his atrocious regular season results are difficult to ignore. While Scherzer seems to be a reasonable bet to produce when healthy enough to take the mound, Buehler will need to improve his overall production substantially to be an even league average starter next year even as he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late in the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.

If your team was in the market for a bounce-back starter this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Scherzer’s strong results and lengthy track record of success when healthy despite his age and injury questions, or would you prefer Buehler’s youth and upside despite his brutal results in 2024?

Rays Had Interest In Travis d’Arnaud

By Nick Deeds | November 17, 2024 at 12:06pm CDT

The Rays had interest in a reunion with veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud prior to his deal with the Angels, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

d’Arnaud, 36 in February, spent the past half decade in Atlanta but was a member of the Rays during the 2019 season, when he played 92 games for the club as part of a catching tandem with Mike Zunino and was a key part of the club’s first trip to the postseason since 2013. He split time between catching and playing first base with Tampa, and hit a solid .263/.323/.459 with 16 homers in just 365 trips to the plate. That production was good for a wRC+ of 109, and his excellent work with the Rays served as a springboard for him as he entered free agency that winter.

Of course, d’Arnaud ultimately landed with the Braves prior to the 2020 season and has spent the past five seasons as a fixture of the lineup in Atlanta, catching more games for them than any other player in each season except 2023, when Sean Murphy took over primary catching duties. The veteran has served as a roughly league average hitter overall during his time with the Braves, slashing .251/.312/.443 with a 106 wRC+. That’s just about in line with his production in 2024 as well, as he slugged 15 homers in 99 games en route to a 103 wRC+ with Atlanta this year. Valuable as d’Arnaud has been for the Braves, the club opted to part ways with him this winter with Murphy expected to be healthy enough to resume primary catching duties next year and catching prospect Drake Baldwin knocking on the door at Triple-A.

A reunion between d’Arnaud and the Rays would have certainly made sense given the club’s obvious hole behind the plate. Ben Rortvedt is on the roster as the club’s primary catcher after he posted a decent 87 wRC+ in 112 games for Tampa in 2024, but the club has parted ways with both Alex Jackson and Rene Pinto already this winter. That leaves them in need of a partner for Rortvedt, and preferably one who can become their primary catcher and allow Rortvedt to shift into a backup role. That’s a bill d’Arnaud would’ve fit nicely, offering a substantial upgrade over the club’s 67 wRC+ from the catcher position in 2024. That wasn’t meant to be, however. Topkin notes that d’Arnaud (a native of Long Beach, CA) was motivated to return to southern California, and his two-year, $12MM pact with the club allowed him to do just that.

Even as d’Arnaud landed elsewhere, however, Topkin suggests that free agency remains the best place for the Rays to find an upgrade behind the plate with few options known to be available on the trade market. Topkin suggests that veteran backstops Danny Jansen and Kyle Higashioka could be the best fits for the Rays’ needs behind the plate. Jansen, 29, struggled badly after a hot start this year but was a reliable presence behind the plate for Toronto in a part-time role from 2021-23 with an excellent .237/.317/.487 slash line (121 wRC+) in 754 trips to the plate over those three seasons. Even in his down 2024 season, he hit a respectable .237/.372/.342 against left-handed pitching this year, making him a solid platoon partner for Rortvedt.

Higashioka, on the other hand, is coming off a strong platform season but has less of a track record offensively and is entering the market at age 34. After spending parts of seven seasons in the Bronx, Higashioka split time with Luis Campusano behind the plate in San Diego this season and flashed impressive power with 17 home runs in just 264 trips to the plate. That incredible pace is somewhat stymied by his lackluster .263 on-base percentage, however, leaving him with a 105 wRC+ overall last year. Higashioka’s contributions were fairly split neutral this year as well, making him perhaps a somewhat less attractive platoon partner for Rortvedt than Jansen.

That said, it’s at least possible that Jansen and Higashioka could wind up out of the Rays’ price range this winter. MLBTR predicted two-year guarantees for both players on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. We predicted that Jansen will land a $20MM guarantee while Higashioka will find a guarantee of $15MM. For a Rays club that RosterResource projects for an $87MM payroll in 2025 after opening the 2024 campaign with a payroll just under $100MM, an annual salary in the $8MM to $10MM range might be difficult for the club to justify when the club could also look to upgrade its outfield mix this winter. Carson Kelly, Elias Diaz, James McCann, and Gary Sanchez are among the other options available this winter who could be had for a lesser guarantee than Jansen and Higashioka if the Rays are looking to save money.

Drew Anderson Re-Signs With KBO’s SSG Landers

By Nick Deeds | November 17, 2024 at 10:04am CDT

Right-hander Drew Anderson has re-signed with the SSG Landers of the Korea Baseball Organization, per a club announcement (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). Anderson will earn $1.2MM in 2025, with $50K available in incentives.

Anderson, 30, last played in the majors back in 2021. A 21st-round pick by Philadelphia in the 2012 draft, the righty made his big league debut in 2017 and spent the next half-decade bouncing between the major and minor leagues with the Phillies, White Sox, and Rangers organizations. In that time, he struggled to a 6.50 ERA in 44 1/3 innings of work at the big league level despite decent peripherals, including a 4.35 FIP. During the 2021-22 offseason, Anderson was released by the Rangers and opted against searching for a new stateside deal. Instead, he headed to Japan to pitch for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hiroshima Carp on a $1MM deal.

The right-hander ultimately spent two seasons in NPB, and pitched quite well during that time. Anderson posted a 3.05 ERA in 115 innings across 34 appearances for the Carp in total, striking out 20.7% of opponents while walking just 8.4%. That was enough to earn him some stateside attention during the 2023-24 offseason, and Anderson landed with the Tigers on a minor league deal back in January. The right-hander failed to make Detroit’s Opening Day roster, however, and after just nine appearances with Triple-A Toledo the Tigers agreed to release him so he could head to South Korea and play for the Landers.

Anderson slotted into the Landers’ rotation alongside former big leaguers Kwang Hyun Kim and Roenis Elias and pitched fairly solidly in his first year of KBO play. While the right-hander’s 3.89 ERA was hardly exceptional, his 115 2/3 innings of work was his most in a season since 2018 and and he struck out an excellent 31.9% of opponents faced. That massive uptick in strikeout rate came with an elevated 10.7% walk rate, but that firepower makes it easy to imagine Anderson finding greater success with the Landers in 2025 and potentially getting the attention of MLB clubs once again next winter.

Should Anderson wish to make it back to the big leagues, there’s certainly reason for optimism that he’ll be able to do that. The KBO has served as a proving ground for other hurlers who struggled in their first taste of big league action in the past. Merrill Kelly is one standout example of a player who pitched in the KBO before returning to stateside ball to make a name for himself, and right-hander Erick Fedde landed a $15MM guarantee from the White Sox just last offseason after a dominant 2023 campaign in South Korea.

Reds, Royals Reportedly Discussing Jonathan India Trade

By Nick Deeds | November 16, 2024 at 10:58pm CDT

The Reds and Royals are discussing a trade that would send second baseman Jonathan India to Kansas City in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer, according to a report from C. Trent Rosencrans and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal adds that a deal between the sides is not considered close and that India is one of “several” hitters the Royals are looking at as they consider dealing from their rotation depth.

India, 28 next month, is coming off something of a rebound campaign in 2024. After averaging just 111 games per season in each of the past two years with below average offensive numbers while dealing with hamstring issues and a bout of plantar fasciitis in his left foot, he posted his best season since winning the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year award this past year. In 637 trips to the plate across 151 games this year, India slashed a respectable .248/.357/.392 (108 wRC+) while slugging 15 homers and stealing 13 bases. He also struck out just 19.6% of the time while walking at a 12.6% clip, making him one of just three players (alongside Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto) to strike out in less than 20% of his plate appearances with a walk rate of at least 12%.

That impressive discipline at the plate makes India a valuable asset even as his power and speed numbers fall short of 20/20 potential. Just five qualified second basemen posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+ than India did last year, and his 2.8 fWAR ranks seventh at the position. On the surface, losing that production would seem to be debilitating for a Reds offense that was bottom-five in baseball by measure of wRC+ in 2024. With that being said, it’s worth noting that India appeared likely to enter 2024 without a clear position to call home until 2023 Rookie of the Year finalist Matt McLain missed the entire 2024 campaign due to shoulder surgery and top prospect Noelvi Marte missed the first half of the season due to an 80-game PED suspension.

Marte struggled badly (31% strikeout rate, 46 wRC+) in 66 games with the Reds this year after returning from his suspension, but McLain proved to be a dynamic offensive force for the club in his 89-game rookie campaign back in 2023. Then just 23 years old, the youngster slashed an excellent .290/.357/.507 (127 wRC+) with 16 homers and 14 steals in just 403 plate appearances. If he can produce anything close to that level of offensive firepower over a full season in 2025, that would more than make up for the loss of India’s bat from the lineup. It’s possible the club could find a way to keep both second basemen in the lineup—McLain has gotten a handful of reps at third base and in center field during his recent stint in Arizona Fall League— but with TJ Friedl just one season removed from a 3.9-win campaign in center and the Reds unlikely to give up on Marte after less than half a season in the majors, it could make sense for the club to cash in on India now.

One sensible way for the club to do that would be targeting a quality rotation arm like Singer. Both Singer and India are under control through the end of the 2026 season, making the swap a fairly clean one from a team control perspective. India is guaranteed a $5MM salary for 2025 and is arbitration eligible for 2026, while MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Singer for an $8.8MM salary in his penultimate trip through arbitration this winter. That slight net increase in salary commitment likely wouldn’t be a problem for a Reds club that plans to run a payroll “at or above” 2024 levels next year, giving them some breathing room financially for next season.

In Singer, the Reds would receive a quality mid-rotation arm to pair with Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo behind staff ace Hunter Greene. The 28-year-old righty pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.94 FIP in 179 2/3 innings of work across 32 starts last year. That’s a major step forward from a disastrous 2023 season that saw him post a 5.52 ERA in 159 2/3 frames, but not quite at the level of his 153 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball the year prior. Overall, Singer has pitched to a 4.15 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 3.94 FIP over the last three seasons, which sets up a solid floor for the right-hander looking forward even if he doesn’t return to the level of production he flashed in 2022.

With Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha all locked into the club’s rotation for 2025, it makes plenty of sense for the Royals to explore trades from their crop of back-end arms that includes not only Singer but also Kyle Wright, Alec Marsh, and Kris Bubic. Those latter two names have already found themselves in the rumor mill this winter, and Rosenthal’s report confirms the Royals are still “entertaining” the possibility of moving either Marsh or Bubic instead of Singer, though he adds that Lugo, Ragans, and Wacha are all understood to be “essentially off-limits.” With that being said, he notes that teams interested in contending immediately prefer Singer to both Marsh and Bubic and the Royals would likely have to settle for a younger, less established hitter if they were to deal either of their lesser arms.

Bringing India would be a somewhat complicated fit for the Royals, however, as it would likely displace incumbent second baseman Michael Massey. Massey enjoyed the best season of his career in 2024, slashing .259/.294/.449 with 14 homers and a 102 wRC+ in 356 trips to the plate while playing around back issues early in the season. Both Massey and India have played second base almost exclusively in their careers to this point, though Massey has one appearance at the hot corner and the Reds toyed with the idea of playing India at first base or in left field last year before losing McLain for the season. It’s certainly feasible to imagine the Royals finding appropriate playing time for both players by utilizing the DH on days where Salvador Perez is catching, especially if India can also mix into the outfield on occasion.

Phillies Sign Nicholas Padilla To Minor League Deal

By Nick Deeds | November 16, 2024 at 7:51pm CDT

The Phillies have signed right-hander Nicholas Padilla to a minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker on Padilla’s MLB.com player profile page. Padilla has updated his personal Instagram page to reflect his new team.

Padilla, 27, was a 13th-round pick by the Rays back in 2015 but struggled somewhat in the lower minors as a starter before eventually converting to relief in 2019. He pitched well at Single-A in 2019, his first full season out of the bullpen, with a 3.48 ERA and a 26.3% strikeout rate in 62 innings of work. That wound up being his last work in the Rays organization, however, as Padilla did not pitch during the cancelled minor league season in 2020 and was selected by the Cubs during the minor league phase of that year’s Rule 5 draft.

The right-hander kicked off his Cubs career at the High-A level in 2021 but pitched just 1 2/3 innings that year before being sidelined by injury. Once he was healthy again in 2022, he rapidly rose through the minor leagues. After dominating the High-A and Double-A levels early in the season, Padilla found himself promoted to Triple-A and pitched excellent in ten appearances with the Iowa Cubs. In those 14 2/3 innings of work, Padilla struck out 28.8% of opponents while posting a sterling 1.23 ERA. That was enough for the Cubs to give him a taste of big league action, as he was selected to the roster and made the 27th man during a doubleheader against the Cardinals.

That big league cup of coffee lasted just one game, however. Padilla pitched 1 2/3 innings of work for Chicago, where he surrendered one run on two hits and two walks while notching a strikeout, but was designated for assignment just two weeks later. That brought an end to his Cubs career as he was claimed off waivers by the crosstown White Sox, though he did not make an appearance for them down the stretch after being optioned to Triple-A Charlotte.

Padilla eventually made his debut on the south side in May of 2023, but rode the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors that year to make just three appearances in the big leagues. His performance in both the majors and minors was somewhat lackluster, as he posted a 5.79 ERA in 4 2/3 big league innings and a 5.52 ERA across 44 Triple-A appearances that year. He was outrighted off the club’s roster last November but remained with the club throughout the 2024 season. He posted a 2.92 ERA with a 30.3% strikeout rate in 37 innings of work this year but did not make it to the big league level and elected free agency earlier this offseason.

Now Padilla will join the fourth organization of his career in hopes of catching on with Philadelphia. For the Phillies, Padilla offers a depth arm for the club’s bullpen who is capable of pitching multiple innings in relief, a role that could be useful for them to have depth for given the departure of Spencer Turnbull in free agency earlier this month. Of course, the club’s up-and-coming young pitchers such as Andrew Painter, Seth Johnson, and Mick Abel could all contribute in that role, or perhaps even bump veteran Taijuan Walker out of the rotation following a difficult 2024 campaign and into that long relief role. Given that, Padilla would likely need to impress in Spring Training to snag a 40-man roster spot out of camp or wait for injuries to create space in the club’s bullpen throughout the 2025 campaign.

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