Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Red Sox Sign Niko Goodrum To Minor League Deal
The Red Sox announced that utility player Niko Goodrum will be a non-roster invitee for their upcoming Spring Training. Prior to the official announcement, Robert Murray of FanSided reported Goodrum had joined the organization on a minor league deal.
Goodrum, 31 in February, seemed to establish himself as a useful player with the Tigers in 2018 and 2019, hitting around league average but adding some defensive versatility and speed. Over that two-year stretch, he hit 28 home runs and stole 24 bases, producing a batting line of .247/.318/.427. That period included the “juiced ball” season of 2019, so that production was actually just below league average, with Goodrum having a 98 wRC+ for that two-year timeframe. He also struck out in 28% of his plate appearances, but was still a useful piece with that average-ish bat and defensive versatility, playing every infield and outfield position.
Unfortunately, he’s been on a downward trajectory since that time. He slid to .184/.263/.335 in the next year for a wRC+ of 63, though that could have been written off as an anomaly of the pandemic-shortened year. He rebounded in 2021, but only slightly, finishing that season at .214/.292/.359, 81 wRC+. He also saw his strikeouts become even more of an issue, jumping to 38.5% in 2020 and 32.9% a year later.
That was disappointing enough for the Tigers to move on, non-tendering Goodrum prior to the 2022 season. The Astros decided to take a flier on a bounceback, signing him for one year and $2.1MM. But things went from bad to worse in Houston, with Goodrum striking out 51.1% of the time in a small sample of 45 plate appearances and hitting just .116/.156/.163. The Astros optioned him to the farm but he got injured down there and only played 20 minor league games. He was designated for assignment and released as the season was winding down.
Like the Astros did a year ago, the Red Sox will now take a chance on Goodrum and hope for a return to form. In this case, it’s essentially a no-risk move for Boston since it’s a minor league deal and they haven’t committed a roster spot to him. They have some uncertainty in their position player mix at the moment with the departure of Xander Bogaerts. It seems like Trevor Story will move to take over shortstop, leaving second base for Christian Arroyo. They have some options who could serve as bench infielders, with Enmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton on the 40-man roster. However, they were both just added in November and neither has any MLB experience. Goodrum’s signing adds a more seasoned option into the mix.
If Goodrum can get back on track and earn his way onto the roster, he’ll be able to be controlled beyond this season. He has over four years of MLB service time and could be retained via arbitration until he gets over the six-year mark. He also has a couple of option years remaining, though players with over five years of MLB service cannot be optioned without their consent. Goodrum is at 4.069 and could cross that threshold this season, with a “year” being flipped at the 172-day mark.
A’s Designate Zach Logue For Assignment
The A’s announced their signing of right-hander Drew Rucinski, making it official. In a corresponding move, lefty Zach Logue was designated for assignment.
Logue, 27 in April, was a ninth round pick of the Blue Jays in 2017 who got added to their 40-man roster after a solid 2021 season. Logue split that year between Double-A and Triple-A, making 24 starts and one relief appearance with a 3.67 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate. The A’s were intrigued enough to acquire him, with Logue being one of the four players that came over in the Matt Chapman trade.
Unfortunately, 2022 didn’t go as smooth for Logue. He was able to make his MLB debut, but he posted a 6.79 ERA over 14 appearances for the A’s. He limited walks to a 7.8% clip but only struck out 16.3% of batters faced. Things didn’t go much better in the minors, as he posted an ERA of 8.12 for the Triple-A Las Vegas Aviators. That club plays in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but park factors alone can’t completely wave away those results. He also had subpar rate stats, striking out just 15.3% of batters faced there while walking 9.9% of them.
The A’s will now have one week to trade Logue or pass him through waivers. Lackluster season aside, pitching depth is always in demand and Logue still has two option years remaining.
Tigers Claim Mario Feliciano, Designate Bligh Madris
The Tigers announced that they have claimed catcher Mario Feliciano off waivers from the Brewers. Outfielder Bligh Madris was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Feliciano had been designated for assignment last week.
Feliciano, 24, was selected 75th overall by the Brewers in 2016 and has had some prospect shine in his time in the professional ranks so far. Baseball America has considered him to be one of the top 30 Brewer prospects in each season since that draft, characterizing him as a bat-first catcher. He got as high as #6 at BA, on the heels of a 2019 season where he hit 19 home runs in High-A.
After the minor league were cancelled in 2020, Feliciano was added to Milwaukee’s 40-man roster but has struggled since then. A shoulder impingement in 2021 limited him to just 39 minor league games and a single contest in the big leagues. In 2022, he was frequently recalled and optioned but only got into a pair of MLB contests. In 77 Triple-A games, he hit .274/.326/.386 for a wRC+ of 90. After a couple of disappointing seasons, the Brewers designated him for assignment last week.
For the Tigers, their primary catcher in 2022 was Tucker Barnhart, who reached free agency at season’s end. That left them with Eric Haase and Jake Rogers as the only two backstops on their 40-man roster. Haase has been solid at the plate the past two years but his defense is graded poorly behind it, pushing him into spending some time at first base and left field. Rogers, meanwhile, missed all of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. Given the state of the club’s catching corps, it makes sense for them to take a flier on Feliciano, who still has one option year remaining. He can serve as minor league depth until he earns his way into a larger role.
As for Madris, 27 in February, he was drafted by the Pirates in 2017 and was with them until recently. He’s hit well in the upper levels of the minors over the past couple of seasons but wasn’t able to maintain that in a brief MLB debut. In 104 Triple-A games last year, he hit .272/.352/.434 for a wRC+ of 111. This year, he took it up a notch to .294/.366/.482 and a wRC+ of 124.
That was enough to get him an audition in the big leagues, getting into 39 games for the Pirates this year. He hit just .177/.244/.265 in that period, however, getting designated for assignment in September. He was claimed by the Rays, who kept him in Triple-A until they, too, designated him, which led to another claim by the Tigers.
Madris will now head into DFA limbo for the third time in the past few months. The Tigers will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He still has a pair of option years remaining and could appeal to clubs looking for a bit of extra outfield depth.
Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel announced Feliciano’s claim prior to the official announcement.
A’s Sign Drew Rucinski
December 21: The A’s made it official today, announcing the signing.
December 20: The A’s are in agreement with starter Drew Rucinski, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a one-year, $3MM guarantee for the Paragon Sports International client. The deal also contains a $5MM club option for the 2024 season.
Rucinski returns to the U.S. after four seasons in South Korea. The 6’2″ righty kicked around the majors in the middle of the last decade as a swing option. While Rucinski worked as a starter in the minors, he came out of the bullpen for six of seven appearances with the Angels in 2014-15. Rucisnki spent the next year in Triple-A with the Cubs organization before spending two years as a depth reliever. He pitched twice for the Twins in 2017 and logged 35 1/3 innings over 32 relief appearances for the Marlins the next season.
That marked a career-high workload for the Ohio State product, and he made the jump to the Korea Baseball Organization the next offseason. Rucinski landed with the NC Dinos, kicking off a four-year run in which he’d work as a durable innings eater. The righty started 30-plus games in all four of his KBO seasons, pitching at least 177 1/3 innings in each year. Rucinski was consistent and very effective, posting an ERA between 2.97 and 3.17 in every season.
Rucinski only struck out 16.8% of his opponents during his debut season, but he topped a 20% strikeout rate in each of the next three years. Rucinski topped out at a 24.3% strikeout percentage in 2022, while this year’s 2.97 ERA over 193 2/3 innings marked his lowest with the Dinos. He threw plenty of strikes, walking just 4.3% of batters faced this year. Rucinski also induced grounders on two-thirds of batted balls in each of the last three years, with those dominant numbers earning him another MLB look.
MLBTR placed Rucinski 50th on this offseason’s top free agent list. His one-year pact falls short of MLBTR’s projected two-year, $9MM guarantee. Pitchers like Chris Flexen and Merrill Kelly secured two-year contracts coming over from the KBO, but Rucinski’s age apparently limited him to one year. He’ll turn 34 next week, while Flexen and Kelly each returned to the U.S. before their 31st birthday.
It’s a low-cost flier for the A’s, whose spacious home park figures to play well for a pitch-to-contact arm of Rucinski’s ilk. Cole Irvin and Paul Blackburn look to have secured season-opening rotation spots alongside Rucinski, while players like James Kaprielian, Ken Waldichuk, Adam Oller and Adrián Martínez could battle for spots at the back end. Oakland GM David Forst and his staff could still look to augment that group, even in another rebuilding season.
The A’s still have just $54MM in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource. They’ve added Jace Peterson and Aledmys Díaz on lower-cost two-year deals, while Trevor May, Rucinski and Manny Piña (in the Sean Murphy trade) have been brought aboard with one-year commitments.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Rucisnki was in agreement with the A’s. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report it was a one-year, $3MM guarantee with a $5MM club option.
Yankees Designate Junior Fernández For Assignment
The Yankees announced that right-hander Junior Fernández has been designated for assignment. The club has recently made their signings of Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodón official and needed to open a roster spot.
Fernandez, 26 in March, has spent most of his career as a Cardinal, getting sporadic opportunities with them since his 2019 debut. Over the past four seasons, he’s tallied 54 innings in the big leagues with a 5.17 ERA and a solid 49.4% ground ball rate. His strikeout and walk rates have both been subpar, however, coming in at 18.7% and 13.9%, respectively.
The fact that Fernández hasn’t been able to rack up strikeouts is surprising since he has elite velocity on his fastball. He averaged 98.8 mph on his four-seamer this year and 98.7 mph on his sinker. Per Statcast, that puts his velocity in the 98th percentile among qualified pitchers. He’s been better at getting punchouts in the minors but without improved results overall. Over the past two years, he’s thrown 58 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.22 ERA, despite striking out 27.1% of batters faced.
The Cardinals evidently ran out of patience with his lack of results, as he was designated for assignment in September. He was claimed by the Pirates and made three appearances for them down the stretch. In November, the Bucs also sent him to DFA limbo, with Fernández landing with the Yankees on a waiver claim.
The righty is still young and could turn things around, but he is now out of options and won’t be easily shuttled between the majors and the minors. But he does have just under two years of MLB service time, giving him plenty of cheap control that could appeal to clubs. The Yanks will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers.
Scott Boras Comments On Carlos Correa Situation
The past week has seen an incredible free agent plot twist that’s unprecedented in baseball history. Reports emerged last week indicating that the Giants had agreed to terms with shortstop Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM deal. That deal, like all free agent agreements, was pending a physical. However, it was reported yesterday that an issue flagged during Correa’s physical caused the Giants to delay a press conference that was set to introduce Correa. That was followed by a stunning middle-of-the-night report that Correa had a new agreement with the Mets for 12 years and $315MM.
The entire baseball world is still trying to piece together how such a strange sequence of events came to pass. Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, has provided his perspective today, giving comment to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
“We reached an agreement. We had a letter of agreement. We gave them a time frame to execute it,” Boras said. “They advised us they still had questions. They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it. I said, ‘Look, I’ve given you a reasonable time. We need to move forward on this. Give me a time frame. If you’re not going to execute, I need to go talk with other teams.”
It still isn’t publicly known what issue the Giants found during Correa’s physical, but Boras frames it as an old injury that precedes Correa’s time in the majors. “You’re talking about a player who has played eight major-league seasons,” Boras said. “There are things in his medical record that happened decades ago. These are all speculative dynamics. Every team has a right to go through things and evaluate things. The key thing is, we gave them (the Giants) medical reports at the time. They still wanted to sign the player and negotiate with the player.”
Rosenthal lays out that Correa suffered a season-ending leg injury in the minor leagues in 2014 but he has not been on the injured list for a lower leg injury since his promotion to the majors. He’s also had back issues in the past but his last IL stint for a back injury was in 2019.
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi also provided a comment, though without getting into specifics. “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination,” Zaidi said to reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We wish Carlos the best.”
It’s worth reiterating that, with the Giants not providing any details, we only really have one side of the story. As Correa’s agent, Boras is surely motivated to wipe away the concern of the Giants as unreasonable or a non-issue. Correa’s new deal with the Mets is also pending a physical and won’t be official until that is complete. However, if the Mets end up having the same concerns as the Giants, it might be difficult for them to back out in a similar fashion. Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets could face a grievance if they back out of the deal since owner Steve Cohen has already discussed the deal on the record.
Also noted by Rosenthal, it’s not entirely unprecedented for medical personnel to come to different conclusions about the health of a player. This Boras-Mets situation was the other way around with Kumar Rocker, whom the Mets selected 10th overall in the 2021 draft. The Mets had agreed to give Rocker, who is represented by Boras, a $6MM bonus before medical concerns scuttled the deal. Rocker re-entered the draft a year later and was selected third overall by the Rangers.
It has also occasionally happened in the past that free agents agree to terms with teams but then issues pop up with the physical before the deal is official. In one recent example, reliever Grant Balfour agreed to terms with the Orioles on a two-year, $15MM deal prior to the 2014 season. The O’s backed out after conducting Balfour’s physical and he instead signed with the Rays for two years and $12MM. However, a similar situation for a free agent of Correa’s magnitude hasn’t been seen before.
Cubs Sign Dansby Swanson
December 21: The Cubs have officially announced the signing. Robert Murray of FanSided provides a detailed breakdown of Swanson’s salaries. He will get a $7MM signing bonus and a $13MM salary in 2023, followed by $25MM in 2024. He will then get a bump to $27MM for three straight years, followed by $26MM in 2028 and $25MM in 2029.
December 17: The Cubs have landed one of the offseason’s biggest free agents, as the team has agreed to a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson. NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan (via Twitter) was first to report that the two sides were “very close” to finalizing a deal, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel tweeted later that the agreement had been reached. The contract is a seven-year, $177MM deal that includes a full no-trade clause, according to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (Twitter link). Swanson is represented by Excel Sports Management.
It is the second-biggest free agent deal in Cubs history, second only to Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM pact from the 2015-16 offseason. After the Cubs had spent the last couple of seasons cutting payroll and largely moving into rebuild mode, it is safe to say that the franchise is firmly planning to compete again, given the signings of Swanson, Jameson Taillon, and Cody Bellinger this offseason, as well as the Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman deals last winter.
Rumors have swirled since the summer that the Cubs were planning to sign one of the “big four” shortstops of the 2022-23 offseason — Swanson, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Xander Bogaerts. Some reports even suggested that Chicago could sign two of the shortstops, with an eye towards moving one player to another position (a la the Rangers inking both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last winter). Initial reports indicated that Correa and Bogaerts were the Cubs’ top options of the group, but during the Winter Meetings, Swanson began to emerge as “perhaps their most realistic target at shortstop,” in the words of The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
As it turned out, all of the big four shortstops ended up switching teams, with Swanson the last one to land his next contract. Turner signed with the Phillies, Bogaerts with the Padres, Correa with the Giants, and now Swanson will head to Wrigleyville to join the third different organization of his pro career. Drafted first overall by the Diamondbacks in 2015, Swanson’s Arizona was limited to 22 A-ball games, as he was dealt to the Braves that offseason as part of a blockbuster five-player swap.
The trade became infamous for Arizona fans, as Shelby Miller (the primary piece headed to the D’Backs) immediately struggled with his new team, while Georgia-born Swanson blossomed with his hometown Braves. Success wasn’t immediate for Swanson, who hit only .243/.314/.369 over his first 1229 Major League plate appearances from 2016-18. However, he gradually became more productive at the plate, culminating in a 2022 season that saw him hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 homers over 696 PA, translating to a 116 wRC+.
Swanson also hit 27 homers in 2021, bringing some solid power from the shortstop position. It could be that Swanson might still be entering his prime years as a hitter as he enters his age-29 season, making him an even more intriguing addition as an all-around player. Swanson is also an excellent baserunner and has a very strong defensive resume that includes a Gold Glove last season. The Outs Above Average metric grades Swanson with a +38 total over the last five seasons, and while his Defensive Runs Saved (+18) and UZR/150 (+0.4) numbers are a little more inconsistent, Swanson is certainly an above-average fielder at a key defensive position.
The Cubs already had a good defensive shortstop in Nico Hoerner, of course, and yet Hoerner’s versatility allowed Chicago to explore multiple options around the diamond. With Swanson now taking over at shortstop and Bellinger also signed as primarily the everyday center fielder, it looks like Hoerner will be spending most of his time at second base. Between Hoerner and Swanson, the Cubs now have one of the very best defensive middle infields in baseball, which will be particularly important in 2023 given the new rules limiting defensive shifts.
Between Swanson, Bellinger, Taillon, and Brad Boxberger, Chicago has spent a little over $265MM on guaranteed free agent deals this offseason. Even with a projected $181.1MM in payroll for 2023 and a luxury tax number (which is based on average annual values) of a little over $203.1MM, it seems possible that the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might not be done yet.
The Cubs’ Opening Day payroll in 2019 cracked the $203MM mark, so Hoyer might have at least another $22MM to spend if that past record total does represent ownership’s upper limit. Since the Cubs crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, it could be that ownership might even green-light more spending at least up to the current $233MM tax line. “Intelligent spending” has been one of Hoyer’s chief descriptions of the Cubs’ spending strategies over the last two winters, and club chairman Tom Ricketts said at the start of the offseason that the front office would have “the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”
Swanson’s signing marks the first time in two offseasons that the Cubs signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. This means Chicago will have to give up $500K in international spending money, and lose its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft. While losing a draft pick (currently 49th overall) is no small matter, the Cubs will also get a bonus pick back since Willson Contreras rejected his QO and signed with the Cardinals. This will net Chicago a compensatory pick that will fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, so roughly 70th overall.
Atlanta’s compensatory pick will also fall right alongside Chicago’s pick in the 70th-overall range. That draft selection will represent the last piece of Swanson’s tenure with the Braves, an overall very successful run highlighted by the team’s 2021 World Series championship. Since the Braves captured that title, the club has said goodbye to both Swanson and Freddie Freeman in free agency — a scenario that would’ve been unlikely 13 months ago, given how both seemed like cornerstone pieces.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has spent much of that time building a new foundation, however. The Braves have been very aggressive in locking up several young players to contract extensions, and also swung separate trades with the Athletics to bring in two more star players in Matt Olson (essentially Freeman’s replacement at first base) and new catcher Sean Murphy. This left less focus on Swanson, as Atlanta reportedly made him an offer in the neighborhood of six years and $100MM before the offseason began, and ever since, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote that the two sides “haven’t had any legit negotiations.”
The Braves reportedly had reservations about committing the kind of high average-annual value it would’ve taken to land Swanson, as the $25.286 AAV on his Cubs deal would’ve been easily the highest on Atlanta’s payroll (Austin Riley’s $21.2MM is the current leader). While time will tell if the Braves made the right decision in moving on from Swanson, it’s hard to accuse the club of being tight-fisted, given how they’re already on pace for a team-record $196.5MM payroll and are close to the luxury tax threshold for the first time.
Atlanta might also feel like it has another young star ready to take the reins at shortstop, as Vaughn Grissom (who played his first 41 MLB games in 2022) now looks like the top choice at the position. Orlando Arcia is on hand as a veteran backup and you can never rule Anthopoulos out from another headline-grabbing move for another shortstop, but it appears as though the Braves are hoping Grissom can become the latest homegrown prospect to make an immediate impact at the big league level. Grissom already hit .291/.353/.440 in his first 156 career plate appearances.
Looking at both the shortstop market and the greater free agent market, Swanson is the latest player to cash in during what has been something of a spending free-for-all this winter. MLBTR projected Swanson for a seven-year, $154MM deal, so that prediction at least came closer to expectations than Bogaerts’ 11-year/$280MM deal with San Diego, Correa’s 13-year/$350MM pact with San Francisco, or even the 11 years and $300MM Turner got from the Phillies. While it was generally expected that Swanson would receive the smallest contract (relatively speaking) of the “big four” shortstops, the average annual values of the four players ended up all falling within a $2MM range, as the longer-term deals signed by Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner helped lessen the AAV and subsequent luxury tax hit.
Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias won’t command anywhere near those types of numbers, but the two veteran infielders are now the best shortstop options remaining on the open market. For other teams (like the Red Sox, Twins, Dodgers, and perhaps the Diamondbacks and Angels) that were looking for shortstop help and were at least on the periphery of the markets of the “big four,” Andrus or Iglesias might get some looks, or any needy teams might explore the trade market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Yankees Sign Aaron Judge To Nine-Year Deal
December 21: Judge will make even salaries of $40MM throughout the course of the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
December 20: The Yankees have made it official today, announcing the deal.
December 7: The reigning American League MVP isn’t going anywhere. Free-agent outfielder Aaron Judge has agreed to terms on a new contract with the Yankees, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The deal, which is still pending a physical, will guarantee Judge $360MM over a nine-year term, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
It’s the largest free-agent contract in MLB history, handily topping Bryce Harper’s previous $330MM record. The $40MM average annual value on the contract establishes a new record among position players and trails only the matching $43.333MM AAVs of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — both of whom are on shorter-term deals — for the largest in MLB history. Judge is represented by Page Odle of PSI Sports Management.
Judge’s decision to remain in New York puts an end to a weeks-long saga that saw him primarily fixated on the Yankees and Giants, his two most serious suitors from the moment he rejected a qualifying offer issued by the Yankees. The Giants were reported to have made a similar offer yesterday, and Morosi tweets that Judge turned down higher offers after ultimately deciding he preferred to remain a Yankee. The Padres, notably, made a late offer worth a reported $400MM in an attempt to woo Judge, albeit to no avail. Judge will now likely spend his entire career in Yankee pinstripes, as the new contract will run through his age-39 season.
Judge famously bet on himself heading into the 2022 season, turning down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer from the Yankees in Spring Training. General manager Brian Cashman took the uncommon step of announcing the terms of the Yankees’ final offer to the public. While that unorthodox tactic upset Judge — as the outfielder himself has since publicly stated — it also leaves no doubt as to the numbers that were offered and thus gives a clear window into just how much the 2022 MVP gained in betting on himself. Judge’s gamble drew some scrutiny, but in the end, he secured an additional two years and a jaw-dropping $146.5MM — a 68.6% increase over the originally proposed guarantee.
It’s a massive win for Judge — one that was earned on the heels of a season the likes of which baseball fans have not seen since Barry Bonds dominated during the steroid era. Judge led the Majors in home runs, runs scored, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and total bases, finishing out the year with a comical .311/.425/.686 batting line and a new American League record of 62 home runs.
It’s nearly impossible to draw up a better platform season for a free agent. Judge not only captivated baseball fans but caught the attention of sports fans everywhere while chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding record, evidenced by being named Time Magazine’s Athlete of the Year. Judge thrived in a national spotlight with the game’s highest-profile team and also almost singlehandedly prevented a second-half collapse by the Yankees. Judge mashed at a .349/.502/.784 clip following the All-Star break, belting 29 home runs and reaching base in more than half of his 307 plate appearances. The rest of the lineup, meanwhile, looked utterly lifeless in the season’s final months; non-Judge Yankees hitters combined for a disastrous .223/.292/.360 slash after the All-Star break.
Those heroics simultaneously pushed the Yankees to a division crown in the AL East (thus landing them a first-round bye in the newly expanded playoff format) and painted a gruesome picture for Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner of just what a Judge-less Yankee team might look like moving forward. While Judge finally went cold with a 1-for-16 slump in a brutal ALCS that saw his team score just nine total runs in a sweep at the hands of the eventual-champion Astros, it’s unlikely the Yankees would’ve even reached that point had he not put the team on his back in such dramatic fashion.
By measure of wRC+, which weights for a hitter’s league environment and home park, Judge was 107% better than an average big league hitter in 2022. It’s the highest single-season mark any qualified hitter has posted since Bonds in 2004, and if you prefer to set Bonds aside for PED reasons, Judge’s 2022 wRC+ is the best of any hitter since Ted Williams in 1957. There’s no overstating just how remarkable his 2022 season proved to be.
Of course, Judge is hardly a one-year wonder. Setting aside some struggles in a brief 2016 call-up that saw him tally just 95 plate appearances, the former No. 32 overall draft pick has been one of baseball’s best hitters for the past six seasons. A 52-homer campaign in 2017 earned Judge not only a unanimous selection as the American League Rookie of the Year but also a second-place finish in AL MVP voting. Injuries impacted each of his next three seasons, however. Judge missed nearly two months in 2018 when he fractured his wrist upon being hit by a pitch, and he missed time in 2019-20 with a severe oblique strain and a pair of calf strains.
Over the past two seasons, however, Judge has appeared in 94% of the Yankees’ games and been among the game’s very best players in the process. In addition to his 2022 MVP win, he earned a fourth-place finish in MVP balloting in 2021 after slashing .287/.373/.544 with 39 home runs. Virtually every batted-ball metric under the sun supports the notion that Judge is a generational talent at the plate. He led the Majors in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and max exit velocity in each of the past two seasons, according to Statcast, which also ranks Judge as MLB’s leader in “expected” slugging percentage and weighted on-base average in that span.
Judge’s power profile is so prodigious that it’s easy to overlook his defensive skill set, but doing so would undersell his all-around value. Listed at 6’7″ and 282 pounds, Judge might draw the assumption that he’s a plodding slugger who’s a liability with the glove, but that’s in no way reflective of reality. To the contrary, Judge’s 61 Defensive Runs Saved since his Major League debut tie him for eighth among all MLB players, regardless of position. Statcast placed his sprint speed in the 50th percentile among MLB players in 2022, while his arm strength landed in the 93rd percentile. Judge will surely slow down over the life of the contract, but at least for the time being, he’s even a viable option in center field, where he logged a career-high 632 innings this past season and turned in above-average marks in DRS, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.
Since Judge’s first full season came at age 25 and he’s set to turn 31 early in the first season of his new contract, it’s easy to see why the Yankees initially tried to limit the contract to a seven-year term. Instead, Judge’s legendary 2022 campaign pushed them to compete with other teams in free agency and offer a nine-year contract that will carry him through age 39. Long-term contracts paying even through age 38 have been exceedingly rare in the last decade. Arguably the only other player who’s done that without compromising on the average annual value is Mike Trout, who tacked on ten years and $360MM in a March 2019 extension. In contrast, Phillies-for-life Bryce Harper and Trea Turner accepted AAVs of $25.4MM and $27.3MM, respectively.
Judge’s aging curve will be an issue for another day. Looking at financial component of this agreement for 2023, it comes at an even larger cost to the Yankees than the bottom-line, $360MM guarantee. New York was about $5.8MM shy of the luxury-tax barrier prior to agreeing to terms with Judge, as projected by Roster Resource, and his $40MM AAV now catapults them into the second tier of luxury penalization.
As a second-time offender, they’re subject to a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the luxury threshold and a 42.5% tax for the next $20MM. They’ll pay a 75% tax on the next $20MM by which they exceed the threshold and a 90% tax on every dollar spent thereafter. Judge bumps the Yankees to a projected $267.2MM worth of luxury obligations, meaning if the Yankees called it an offseason right now, they’d be on the hook for approximately $12.035MM in penalties. That seems unlikely, however, and any further additions will come with substantial taxes, as New York now sits $5.8MM shy of the third tier of penalties (and the aforementioned 75% tax rate). The Yankees have been reported to hold strong interest in free-agent ace Carlos Rodon, though it’s not clear whether Steinbrenner has the appetite for a $40MM AAV on Judge and an AAV approaching or even exceeding $30MM for Rodon.
It’s possible, if not likely, that they’ll look to get out from underneath the remainder of their onerous commitments to Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks via the trade market, but the Yankees would need to pay down a substantial portion of either player’s salary to facilitate such a trade (or take on another bad contract in return). There’s also been speculation about the Yankees possibly dealing from their sizable arbitration class, with infielder Gleyber Torres a commonly cited possibility.
Judge’s enormous AAV not only makes the Yankees a lock to repeat as a second-time luxury payor — it also makes them quite likely to be a third-time offender in 2024, when they’re already projected for nearly $170MM in luxury obligations. That figure doesn’t include any of the team’s arbitration-eligible players, and any multi-year additions this winter will increase that number. With Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Harrison Bader all set for free agency following the 2023 campaign, the Yankees will likely be on the lookout for both rotation and outfield help in the next 12 to 15 months.
Those moving parts coalesce to demonstrate how quickly the Yankees’ luxury figure could balloon. Teams crossing the luxury tax for the third consecutive season are taxed at rates of 50% (first $20MM), 65% (next $20MM), 95% (next $20MM) and 110% (all dollars thereafter).
All of that is secondary to the Yankees, however, who entered the offseason hell-bent on retaining the league MVP and burgeoning franchise icon. They went to record-setting levels in order to make it happen, furthering the future market for star-caliber free agents in the process, but it’s surely a day for celebration in the organization regardless of any down-the-road consequences.
From a broader market perspective, Judge’s deal with the Yankees not only puts a bow on one of the highest-profile free agencies in recent memory — it’s also likely to serve as a facilitator for a flurry of subsequent moves. So much of the 2022-23 offseason hinged on Judge’s decision, that several teams and other top-tier free agents have been reluctant to act.
For instance, with Judge now remaining in New York, the Giants will likely turn their attention to the shortstop market, where they reportedly have Carlos Correa atop their list of targets. The Twins have been angling to re-sign Correa, but it was always in Correa’s best interest to see if the Giants might miss on Judge and jump into the bidding. If Correa departs Minnesota, the Twins reportedly view Xander Bogaerts as their top fallback option. As with Correa, then, it was in Bogaerts’ best interest to know where Judge landed before he made any sort of decision. All the while, the Red Sox have been hoping to keep Bogaerts, just as the Braves have been hoping to keep Dansby Swanson. But the Cubs, Dodgers and Cardinals have each been tied to the shortstop market, and the Padres have been aggressive in trying to add a marquee player of any shape or size and clearly still have money to spend.
The previously mentioned Rodon, too, likely needed to wait on Judge, given the Yankees’ interest. And it’s feasible that the next tier of free-agent pitchers, including Chris Bassitt and Kodai Senga, prefer to wait until Rodon comes off the board so that they can stand as the two top options and perhaps have increased leverage among rotation-hungry teams.
Viewed through that lens, Judge’s contract is far more than a watershed moment in Yankees franchise history, it’s a catalyst that’ll set off a chain reaction of franchise-altering decisions and megadeals throughout the sport — quite possibly within the next few days or weeks. While elated echoes of “All Rise” ring out through the Bronx, things are just getting started for the rest of the league.
Yankees Sign Carlos Rodon To Six-Year Deal
December 21: The Yankees have officially announced the signing.
December 15: The best remaining free agent starter is headed to the Bronx. The Yankees are reportedly in agreement on a six-year, $162MM contract with Carlos Rodón. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $22MM salary next season followed by successive $27MM salaries from 2024-28. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and runs through Rodón’s age-35 season.
New York pairs the addition with their record-setting deal for defending AL MVP Aaron Judge as part of a huge offseason. The guarantee ties that of Brandon Nimmo for the sixth-largest deal of the offseason. Rodón will finish with the second-largest guarantee among free agent pitchers, narrowly behind the five-year, $185MM pact Jacob deGrom inked with the Rangers.
It’s the culmination of an incredible two-season run. The left-hander entered the professional ranks eight years ago, selected by the White Sox with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. Owner of a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, he was regarded as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who’d quickly reach the big leagues. Rodón indeed found himself on Chicago’s south side by the middle of the 2015 campaign, and he posted a 3.90 ERA in 304 1/3 innings through the end of the following season.
Unfortunately, the Miami native’s career was then sidetracked by injuries. Rodón lost a chunk of the 2017 campaign to biceps bursitis, then underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery that September. He didn’t debut until June the following year, making 20 starts. Early the next season, Rodón was diagnosed with an elbow issue. He went back under the knife in May ’19, this time undergoing a Tommy John procedure. He missed the remainder of that year, returning at the tail end of the 2020 campaign for four appearances.
The mounting injury troubles led the White Sox to decline to tender him a contract heading into 2021. Chicago circled back towards the end of the offseason, bringing him back on a $3MM free agent deal. That move was met with a fair amount of criticism, but it turned into one of the best decisions of GM Rick Hahn’s tenure.
Rodón was brilliant in 2021, earning his first All-Star nod with a 2.31 ERA over 89 2/3 first-half innings. He looked on his way to a Cy Young award when he dealt with some shoulder fatigue in August. Rodón only missed a couple weeks and continued to pitch well upon his return, although his velocity dropped towards season’s end. The southpaw concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA and a massive 34.6% strikeout percentage across 132 2/3 innings. He placed fifth in Cy Young balloting.
The end-of-year shoulder issue and velocity dip seemed to scare the Chicago front office, however. They made the eyebrow-raising decision not to issue Rodón a qualifying offer, allowing him to hit the open market without draft compensation attached. He remained a free agent until after the lockout, when the Giants added him on a two-year, $44MM guarantee. The deal contained an opt-out clause after year one, conditional on Rodón reaching 110 innings pitched in 2022. It was an opportunity for the star hurler to bet on himself, knowing a nine-figure deal could be in the cards if he maintained his 2021 form over a full, healthy season.
Rodón did exactly that, doubling down with perhaps the best season of his career. He stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and tallying a personal-high 178 innings. Rodón worked to a sterling 2.88 ERA. He earned a second straight All-Star nod and was among the game’s best at missing bats. Rodón fanned 33.4% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Braves rookier Spencer Strider bested that strikeout percentage. Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were the only pitchers with a larger gap between their strikeout and walk rates.
Almost as importantly, Rodón’s arsenal showed no ill effects after his 2021 dip. His fastball averaged a strong 95.5 MPH, making him one of the game’s harder-throwing lefty pitchers. He generated high-end spin and whiff rates on both his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters swung through a massive 14.1% of his total pitches. Rodón stifled batters from both sides of the plate; he held lefties to a .179/.257/.260 line, while hitters with the platoon advantage put together just a .207/.264/.319 mark.
A second season of elite performance, this one without any health scares, cemented the 30-year-old as one of the sport’s top pitchers. His career took a more winding road than expected when he was drafted, but Rodón has developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. He made the easy decision to opt out of his deal with San Francisco after topping the necessary innings threshold, and he quickly turned down a qualifying offer.
It now looks like a potentially elite Yankee rotation. New York watched Jameson Taillon depart but upgrades with the Rodón addition. He and Cole are co-aces, backed up by breakout hurler Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. The latter two have had some injury concerns in recent seasons, but they’re overqualified as fourth and fifth starters if healthy. Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and prospect Randy Vasquez are on hand as depth options who could step in if any of the top five get injured.
Rodón was one of three aces available in free agency, jointing deGrom and Justin Verlander. As the youngest of that trio, he always looked likely to secure the longest deal. The six-year term will be the longest for any pitcher this winter, although deGrom’s five-year contract and the stronger than expected market for mid-tier starters led to rumors Rodón’s camp was seeking a seven-year pact that’d push past $200MM. He falls well shy of that lofty hope, but the six-year, $162MM commitment is still quite strong for a pitcher.
It’s the first six-year commitment for a free agent pitcher since Cole and Stephen Strasburg pushed to nine and seven years, respectively, over the 2019-20 offseason. Patrick Corbin ($140MM) and Yu Darvish ($120MM) are the only other open market hurlers to reach six years since the start of the 2016 campaign. At the start of this offseason, MLBTR forecasted Rodón for a five-year, $140MM pact.
The cost for New York goes beyond the salary they’ll owe, as the deal pushes them even further into luxury tax territory. The Yankees were already set to pay the competitive balance tax, and adding Rodón pushes them towards the top tier of penalization. The contract comes with a $27MM average annual value, bringing New York’s CBT figure within a rounding error of the $293MM mark, according to Roster Resource. That’s the cutoff for the fourth CBT tier and places them around $60MM north of the $233MM base threshold.
New York also paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’ll be subject to heightened penalties as a repeat payor. The Yankees will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM in overages ($6MM), 42% on their next $20MM ($8.4MM), 75% on the next $20MM ($15MM) and 90% on every dollar spent above $293MM. Signing Rodón pushes them firmly to the top of the third threshold, essentially tacking on around $18MM in taxes. The $27MM salary will bring their raw payroll total around $277MM, which’ll easily be a franchise record.
Going past the third threshold will also push the Yankees first draft choice in 2024 down ten spots. Meanwhile, signing a player who’d turned down a qualifying offer will have a significant impact on their 2023 draft. New York is subject to the highest penalties as a team that paid the CBT this year. They’ll lose their second and fifth-highest selection in next summer’s amateur draft, while their international bonus allotment will drop by $1MM.
The Giants will receive compensation for Rodón’s departure. As a team that neither received revenue sharing payments nor paid the CBT this year, they’ll pick up a bonus selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of third round (typically around 75th overall) in next year’s draft. San Francisco had seemingly prepared for Rodón’s departure from the roster by making a pair of their preferred shorter-term rotation additions, bringing aboard Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling on two-year guarantees.
With Ródon off the board, Dansby Swanson is the last remaining free agent who’s likely to find a nine-figure deal. The free agent rotation market has mostly been covered at the top end, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski standing as some of the top options still available. Needless to say, none of that group has the kind of upside Rodón does. It’s a bold bet from the Yankees, one they hope adds an impact arm to their playoff rotation as they look to advance past the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2009.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Rodón and the Yankees had agreed to a six-year, $162MM deal that contained a full no-trade clause. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the specific financial breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
