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Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The rebuilding Pirates had a fairly similar offseason to the one they had a year ago. The trade chatter for Bryan Reynolds continued, but nothing came to fruition. In the end, it was another winter of bringing aboard veterans on short-term deals to fill out the young and inexperienced roster. Those vets will hopefully make the team a bit better, mentor the youngsters and perhaps turn into trade chips by midseason. The most notable of those new additions is actually a familiar face, with the Bucs bringing back a franchise icon who’s been away for a few years.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $30.375MM
Total spending: $30.375MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signees

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Though it was a fairly modest offseason for the Bucs when comparing them to other clubs, this was on the aggressive side when compared to their own recent offseasons. The club only spent $16MM last offseason and $7.25MM in the previous two combined. Though their $30.375MM this winter isn’t exactly a spending spree compared to win-now clubs like the Mets or Padres, it was technically more than they themselves have spent in quite some time.

Among the players brought in to bolster the roster, the one that Pittsburgh fans are surely the most excited about is Andrew McCutchen. The 36-year-old spent the best years of his career as a Pirate, having been drafted by them in 2005 and playing for the big league club from 2009 to 2017. That tenure included winning 2013 NL MVP, five All-Star selections and playoff berths in three straight years from 2013-2015, their only postseason trips in the last 30 years.

Though many of the club’s acquisitions will be viewed as future trade candidates, it seems McCutchen won’t be in the same bucket. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported last month that the idea is for McCutchen to stay in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career. It’s possible that a situation arises where a World Series contender wants him and gives the team a call, but Mackey’s reporting indicates that a trade will only come to fruition if Cutch wants to take the opportunity to get a ring.

The other new faces will be a different story. The past two seasons have seen the Pirates add a veteran arm to their starting rotation and flip them at the deadline for prospects. It was Tyler Anderson in 2021 and José Quintana last year. For 2023, both Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez have been signed to one-year deals and each could potentially follow the same path as Anderson and Quintana. Hill is about to turn 43 years old but still made 26 starts last year with a 4.27 ERA. Velasquez has occasionally seemed on the verge of establishing himself as a solid major league starter, but he’s also faltered and been moved to the bullpen on multiple occasions.

The bullpen saw one similar addition in Jarlín García. He’s been with the Giants the past three years, posting solid results. From 2020 to 2022, he made 135 appearances with a 2.84 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate and 40.5% ground ball rate. He’s probably not quite as good as that ERA would indicate, given his .246 BABIP in that time, but he still registered a 3.90 FIP and 3.76 SIERA. Nonetheless, the Giants non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $2.4MM arbitration salary, and the Pirates swooped in to give him $2.5MM. Like Hill and Velasquez, he could find himself on the trade block this summer if he’s pitching well, though the Bucs have a club option for 2024 and could keep him around for another season.

The other new face for the bullpen will be Jose Hernandez, but like all Rule 5 picks, he’ll have to justify his roster spot or else be put on waivers and then offered back to his original club. The 25-year-old split last year between High-A and Double-A in the Dodgers’ system, posting a 3.32 ERA in 59 2/3 innings with a 27.8% strikeout rate but a 10.1% walk rate.

On the position player side of things, in addition to McCutchen, the club brought in Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana and Austin Hedges. Choi is in his final arbitration year and will be a free agent at season’s end, while Santana and Hedges both signed one-year deals. Catcher and first base were both quite unsettled for the club last year, as Roberto Pérez went down with an early injury and the  Yoshi Tsutsugo gamble didn’t pay off.

Hedges doesn’t hit much but has long been considered one of the best defensive catchers in the league, while Santana and Choi give the club a couple of fairly steady veterans for their first base and designated hitter slots. Like the pitching acquisitions, any of these names could be on the move in the summer if the club wants to make room for younger players. The same could be said for veterans on minor league deals like Kevin Plawecki, Tyler Chatwood or Tyler Heineman, should they crack the roster at some point.

Unsurprisingly, it seems it will be another season about the potential young core for the rebuilding Pirates. Hill and Velasquez are fine additions, but the main focus in the rotation will be on more controllable players. Both Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker showed some encouraging results last year and can be controlled through the 2025 season. Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz have also had some exciting results and have yet to reach a year of service time, meaning they’re not slated to reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. There are also yet-to-debut prospects like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Jared Jones, Kyle Nicolas, among others. The bullpen will be led by David Bednar, who seems to have established himself as a lock-down closer and isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2026 campaign.

Hedges should be a fine steward of those young arms, but he will also likely be tasked with ushering in young catching prospects like Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis. McCutchen, Santana and Choi will join a position player mix of youngsters who are still developing, such as Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ji Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Calvin Mitchell. That group will be looking to cement themselves before another wave of prospects arrives, one that includes Termarr Johnson, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and Liover Peguero. Recent acquisition Connor Joe can jump into that mix as well.

The 2023 season, and perhaps beyond, will help the club examine key questions about that group of young players. Cruz has elite tools,, but can he cut down his strikeouts and prove himself a viable shortstop? Hayes is an elite defender at third, but can he take a step forward at the plate? Which of Rodriguez or Davis will step up as the catcher of the future? Could it be both, in a time-share setting? Can any of the others emerge as true everyday options, or are they more role players?

Hovering over all of this is the great unanswered Bryan Reynolds question. He’s hit 74 home runs over the past four seasons and cemented himself as an above-average outfielder in the major leagues. He’s now down to three years of club control, seeming to put the club in a position where they have to make a move one way or another. They could certainly return to contention in that timeframe, but it would be wise to figure out a way to better align him with their future window of contention. That means either giving him an extension that keeps him around longer or trading him for younger and more controllable players.

That has put Reynolds in trade rumors for quite some time, though the club has reportedly set a sky-high asking price. The fact that no deal has come together suggests that they are willing to stick to it. The extension talks didn’t seem to gain much traction this offseason either, as the player and the club were reportedly about $50MM apart in those discussions. That led to Reynolds requesting a trade, though that apparently did nothing to nudge the front office any closer to striking a deal. Reynolds recently stated that he’s still open to an extension, as long as it’s a fair deal, but there’s been nothing to suggest anything is particularly close on that front. The two sides could well revisit those talks later this spring, but a $50MM gap is a particularly large chasm to bridge for a club with the Pirates’ annual payroll levels.

Perhaps the upcoming campaign will dictate how the club proceeds. If the Pirates can have a season similar to the Orioles last year and suddenly seem like the rebuild is over, maybe they decide to plunk down some money and keep Reynolds around. Then again, by that point, the asking price may be even higher. Conversely, if they have a year like the 2022 Royals where there’s not as much development as hoped, perhaps they’ll choose a different path and more earnestly look to move Reynolds as one of the final pieces of business in their current rebuilding effort. There’s lots of exciting young talent in the system and reasons to feel good about the future, but still many questions to be answered.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Pirates' offseason?
C 37.62% (998 votes)
B 24.76% (657 votes)
D 21.22% (563 votes)
F 12.63% (335 votes)
A 3.77% (100 votes)
Total Votes: 2,653

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Pirates-centric live chat on Feb. 23. Click here to read the transcript.

Sign Up For The Free MLBTR Newsletter

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Spring Training has begun, and it’s time to check out the free MLB Trade Rumors Newsletter!  The newsletter is written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets.  Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s posts into the essential stories.  It’s a great morning read that will help you stay on top of the biggest MLB stories.

 

This free newsletter arrives via email Monday through Friday in the morning.  Be sure to check your inbox and click the link in the confirmation email.  If you’re not seeing the box to input your email, you can simply click this link to sign up.

Mariners, Kole Calhoun Agree To Minor League Deal

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Per Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports, the Mariners and outfielder Kole Calhoun are in agreement on a minor league deal. The deal is pending a physical, with Calhoun already in Seattle’s spring clubhouse.

An 11-year MLB veteran, Calhoun’s big league career began as a member of the Angels during the 2012 season, and after succeeding in a part time role during the 2013 season, became the club’s regular right fielder, a position he held until the end of his Angels tenure following the 2019 season. Over that period of seven seasons, Calhoun slashed .250/.323/.426, good for an above average 105 wRC+, with his only season of pronounced struggles coming in 2018, when he slashed just .208/.283/.369 with a wRC+ of just 77, 23% worse than league average. Underlying metrics implied Calhoun’s struggles were due at least in part to bad luck, however: His .249 BABIP was well below his career norms, and his xwOBA outstripped his wOBA by nearly 50 points.

While Calhoun seemed to return to form in 2019 (105 wRC+) and excelled in the shortened 2020 season (125 wRC+ with 16 home runs in just 54 games) following a move to the Diamondbacks, his struggles returned for the 2021 campaign. Calhoun played just 51 games that season while battling hamstring issues, and struggled to a slash line of .235/.297/.373 (80 wRC+) even when he was able to take the field. Still, Calhoun’s past success was enough to land him a $5.2MM guarantee from the Rangers last offseason, though his struggles only grew as he posted a line of just .196/.257/.330 (67 wRC+) over 125 games with Texas during the 2022 campaign.

Now, Calhoun is poised to join a Mariners club that has no shortage of outfield depth on a minor league pact. All of Jarred Kelenic, AJ Pollock, Dylan Moore, and Sam Haggerty appear likely to mix and match in Seattle’s outfield alongside regulars Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez this season, leaving Calhoun likely to serve as minors depth alongside players such as Cooper Hummel and Leonys Martin. That said, Seattle’s outfield mix did lose Taylor Trammell last week to surgery that will keep him out of action for at least six more weeks, leaving Calhoun better situated among the players who could potentially take advantage if Kelenic struggles this spring.

While Calhoun’s 2022 struggles are certainly concerning, there is room for optimism he can improve headed into the 2023 campaign. Not only did he miss time in both of the past two seasons with injuries, but 2022 in particular saw him under-perform underlying metrics, as his BABIP last year clocked in 20 points below his career mark, while he under-performed his xwOBA by over 30 points. Calhoun’s contact quality remained largely in line with his career marks, as well. Additionally, it’s possible that the new shift rules being introduced this season could help Calhoun significantly, as Calhoun was among the most shifted on free agents available this offseason.

That said, there are still some red flags in Calhoun’s profile indicating his struggles could continue. Calhoun’s strikeout rate rose dramatically over his career norms in 2022, as he whiffed in a whopping 32.1% of plate appearances against a career strikeout rate of just 22.6%. His 6.4% walk rate in 2022 also represents a noticeable dip from his career mark of 9.1%. With better health, positive regression, and new rules all potentially benefiting him, it’s certainly plausible that Calhoun could bounce back in his age-35 campaign, if given the opportunity.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Catcher And Pro Scout Brian Johnson

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Brian Johnson was a 16th-round pick by the Yankees in 1989 out of Stanford University, where he’d been the football team’s quarterback and a jack-of-all-trades on a baseball club that won a pair of College World Series titles. Ironically, one of the only positions Johnson didn’t play in college was catcher, which wound up being his primary position over the course of an eight-year Major League career.

Johnson spent parts of three seasons in the Yankees’ system but wound up debuting with the Padres in the strike-shortened 1994 season, batting .247/.283/.409 and connecting on the first three of his 49 big league home runs. Johnson spent three seasons in San Diego, batting .260/.288/.392 along the way, before being traded to the Tigers in a trade that shipped left-hander Joey Eischen back to the Padres.

While his run in Detroit proved brief — 45 games before being flipped to the Giants in a one-for-one swap for fellow catcher Marcus Jensen — Johnson found himself with the Giants and closed out the year with his most productive stretch as a big leaguer. Following the trade, he raked at a .279/.333/.525 clip, swatting 11 home runs in 201 trips to the plate. He spent a second year with the Giants, hitting .237/.310/.396 in 99 games, before bouncing through one-year stints with the Reds, Royals and Dodgers.

All told, Johnson’s career drew to a close with a .248/.291/.403 batting line, 49 home runs, 60 doubles, six triples, 132 runs scored, 196 RBIs, a stolen base and a 29% caught-stealing rate behind the plate. He was part of a pair of NL West division winners: the ’96 Padres and ’97 Giants. Some of the pitchers he homered against include Al Leiter, Rick Reed (twice), Mark Portugal, Mike Remlinger and, in 2000, a rookie left-hander by the name of Johan Santana. On Sept. 18, 1997, Johnson’s clubbed a 12th-inning, walkoff homer that put the Giants into a tie for the NL West lead and is still fondly remembered by Giants faithful as “the Brian Johnson game” (YouTube link).

Following his playing days, Johnson returned to the Giants organization, where he spent 10 seasons in their pro scouting department. That included all three of San Francisco’s World Series victories in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

These days, Brian is a diversity consultant with the Chicago-based Kaleidoscope Group. We were thrilled to have him answer reader questions about his experiences on the field, in the clubhouse and as a big league scout for a trio of World Series winners. Brian graciously took two hours of his time to talk with fans, sharing memories of teaming with legends like Trevor Hoffman and Tony Gwynn, insight on what pro scouts look for when recommending trades, thoughts on the changes in the current game and his experiences and opinions on playing at the height of the steroid era. Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat!

The Opener: Offseason In Review, Astros, Player Chat

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With Spring Training games set to begin tomorrow, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. MLBTR’s Offseason In Review Series Begins

With the offseason now mostly over, the 2022-23 installment of MLBTR’s annual “Offseason in Review” series is set to begin today. Standing as a counterpart to the “Offseason Outlook” series, MLBTR publishes a look back at the offseason, signings, trades, and transactions for each of the 30 clubs. The series kicks off today with the Pirates, and following the post going live, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald will be hosting a Pirates-centric live chat for readers at noon CT. If you’d like to submit a question in advance for that Pirates-centric chat, you can do so here. Fans of the other 29 teams should keep an eye out for their own team’s Offseason in Review installment as we continue the series throughout the coming weeks.

2. Will the Astros look to add depth following McCullers injury?

Yesterday, it was revealed that Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. is likely to miss the start of the 2023 campaign due to a muscle strain in his right arm. While it’s currently unknown exactly how much time McCullers will miss, it does shine a light on Houston’s starting pitching depth following last summer’s trade of Jake Odorizzi and Justin Verlander’s free-agent departure. With McCullers on the shelf, the Opening Day rotation for the Astros looks likely to be led by lefty Framber Valdez, who’ll pair with righties Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and top prospect Hunter Brown. It’s still an enviable group, to be sure.

Should Houston’s rotation suffer another injury, however, the depth gets a bit shakier. Righty Brandon Bielak is perhaps the best option to take a turn in the rotation, given former top prospect Forrest Whitley’s struggles at the Triple-A level last season. It’s arguable the Astros should look to add low-cost depth this spring, be it through a minor trade or perhaps by signing a veteran like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer to a minor league deal.

3. MLBTR Player Chat

Yesterday, MLBTR was pleased to welcome international scout and former major league pitchers Ryan Sadowski for a live chat with readers, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, our series of live chats with people around the game continues as we’re excited to welcome another former big leaguer who transitioned into a scouting career following the end of his time as a player. Brian Johnson spent parts of eight seasons as a catcher in the big leagues, from 1994 until 2001. His best season came in 1997, where he played in 101 games, slashing .261/.303/.443 (94 wRC+) while playing for both the Giants and the Tigers. Originally drafted by the Yankees, Johnson also played for the Padres, Reds, Royals, and Dodgers throughout his career. Johnson ended with 471 games played before moving on to a career in pro scouting, where he was with the Giants for all three of their World Series titles from 2010-14. Be sure to check back at 10am CT this morning for the live chat!

Rays Sign Ben Gamel To Minor League Deal

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Feb. 23: Gamel passed his physical, tweets Topkin. His deal with the Rays is now complete.

Feb. 22: The Rays are finalizing a minor league contract with free-agent outfielder Ben Gamel, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The Wasserman client will be in big league camp and compete for a spot on Tampa Bay’s roster once he passes a physical.

Gamel, 30, spent the 2022 season with the Pirates, appearing in 115 games and tallying 423 plate appearances with a .232/.324/.369 batting line, nine homers, an 11.3% walk rate and a 23.2% strikeout rate. Gamel was one of a handful of platoon options remaining on the free agent market and will give a heavily right-handed Tampa Bay club an option from the left side of the dish if he makes the club.

Gamel has seen Major League time in each of the past seven seasons, dating back to his 2016 debut with the Yankees. He’s a lifetime .253/.333/.385 hitter (97 wRC+) in just over 2200 plate appearances, and while he’s typically been light on power — career-high 11 homers, .132 career ISO — he’s drawn walks at a strong clip for the majority of his big league tenure (10.2%).

Looking at his career as a whole, Gamel’s track record against right-handed pitching is roughly average. That’s skewed somewhat by some shaky performances earlier in his career, however. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Gamel carries a solid .255/.351/.408 slash against right-handed pitchers — about 12% better than league-average after weighting for his home park and league run-scoring environment, by measure of wRC+. During that time, he’s walked at a stout 13.9% clip in platoon matchups.

Gamel rated as s solid outfield defender early in his career, but publicly available defensive metrics have soured his glovework in recent seasons. Statcast has given decreasingly favorable reviews to his outfield jumps and dropped his arm strength from above-average to roughly average in 2022. Gamel’s sprint speed still landed in the 65th percentile of MLB players in 2022, but he was in at least the 80th percentile in each of his first three MLB campaigns (including an 87th percentile showing in his debut season).

The Rays’ primary outfielders — Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez — all bat from the right side of the dish, so there’s plenty of sense in adding some left-handed help. Tampa Bay has lefties Jonathan Aranda, Luke Raley and Josh Lowe on the 40-man roster, plus switch-hitting infielder/outfielder Vidal Brujan. Second baseman Brandon Lowe has some experience in the outfield, too.

Still, of that group of lefty options, none are sure bets. Aranda has mashed throughout the minors but is regarded as something of a positionless nomad on the defensive spectrum. Raley has a huge minor league track record but is 28 and has yet to hit in a pair of big league seasons. Josh Lowe is a former top prospect who’s still searching for an MLB breakout. The same goes for Brujan. As for Brandon Lowe, he’s logged just 331 career innings in the outfield, and last year’s three frames in right field represented the entirety of his outfield work on the season.

Gamel will head to Rays camp as the most experienced outfield option among the team’s non-roster invitees, and presumably with a good spring showing, he’ll have a decent chance at cracking the roster. He does have some experience in center field, though it’s limited and he’s best-suited for corner work. That said, both Siri and Margot are plus defenders at any outfield spot, which lessens the need for the Rays’ reserve options to be adept in center.

MLB Monitoring Diamond Sports Group Uncertainty

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Diamond Sports Group, the corporation which owns the Bally Sports networks responsible for local broadcasts of a number of MLB teams, forewent interest payments worth roughly $140MM to creditors last Wednesday (Associated Press link). The decision kicked off a 30-day window for Diamond to determine whether it is capable of meeting its debt obligations or is going to default on its commitments.

The missed payment came as no surprise, with various reports noting Diamond’s rough financial situation for months. Should the corporation default and potentially file for bankruptcy, it’d likely have a few options: honor its existing contractual commitments, withdraw from the deals, or attempt to renegotiate its contracts at more manageable rates. Diamond has separate broadcasting deals with all 14 MLB clubs* with which it has contracts; renegotiations, if things come to that, would be at a team-by-team level rather than in any kind of package deal.

There’s still plenty to be determined about the company’s next steps. Its precarious financial position places a great deal of uncertainty about the stability of local TV rights for the clubs that have contracts with Diamond, however. Commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the situation at last week’s owners meetings, noting that the league is exploring alternatives to make sure those teams don’t lose in-market broadcasting (link via Alden Gonzalez of ESPN).

“Obviously, our first choice would be that Diamond pay the clubs what they’re contractually obligated to pay them, but because I guess I’m a contingency planner by nature, we are prepared no matter what happens with respect to Diamond to make sure that games are available to fans in their local markets,” Manfred said. “We think it will be both linear in the traditional cable bundle and digitally on our own platforms, but that remains to be seen. … Our first hope is that Diamond figures out a way to pay the clubs and broadcast the games like they’re contractually obligated to do.”

The league makes most out-of-market games available to subscribers to its MLB TV package. However, clubs’ local broadcasting deals supersede the league platform, leading to blackouts of in-market games on MLB TV. Manfred broadly indicated a desire to eventually permit MLB TV consumers to purchase various broadcasts both within and out of market (via Hannah Keyser of Yahoo! Sports), though that certainly won’t happen on a league-wide level anytime soon.

MLB has already branched out into various streaming deals. The league agreed to contracts with Apple and NBC for broadcasting arrangements on those companies’ respective streaming services last year. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see MLB negotiate similar deals with other platforms over coming seasons. Those contracts — paired with various postseason TV deals, including a new broadcasting contract with ESPN tied to the creation of the Wild Card round in the most recent CBA — highlight the kind of national revenue bases the league will certainly continue to explore outside the realm of local broadcasting. Nevertheless, the uncertainty with Diamond is sure to be an area of concern within the league office over the coming months.

Diamond first purchased various regional sports networks, which had been under the Fox Sports moniker, from Disney in 2019. The company reportedly took on roughly $8 billion in debt to facilitate that transaction. As Travis Sawchik of The Score explored last month, rates of cable ownership have dropped precipitously over the past couple years, contributing to Diamond’s revenues falling short of its expectations. Declining cable rates are generally expected to continue in the future given the ongoing rise of various streaming platforms.

Concerns about a potential default have raised questions about the player payrolls for the teams that rely on local broadcasting fees from Diamond. It’s still too early in the process for clubs to have a firm idea if/how Diamond’s situation will affect player spending, though it’s something those organizations are surely monitoring.

Cardinals’ chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. addressed the situation shortly before Diamond failed to make its February 15 interest payment, for instance. “It’s a concern and a fluid situation, there’s no question about it,” he said last week (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). “Something is going to happen sooner rather than later. It’s a big part of our revenue stream. We have nice rights fees. The (RSN) model is at risk. We’re operating like, no, it’s going to stay, but the reality is there’s going to be change.”

The situation has led to concerns about the possibility of a lowered salary cap in both the NHL and NBA. Those leagues, which have player spending fixed to league revenues as part of their respective collective bargaining agreements, each have a number of clubs with broadcasting agreements with Diamond. MLB, of course, has no salary cap. The MLB Players Association has steadfastly resisted any hard limitations on team spending throughout past CBA negotiations.

Questions about a potential league push for a cap arose again over the weekend. MLB created an Economic Reform Committee, which the commissioner indicated was in response to both this ongoing local TV uncertainty and more longstanding concern about revenue disparities between franchises. There’s little chance of the MLBPA entertaining a cap during the next round of collective bargaining negotiations in 2026, however. That would’ve been true regardless of the status of local RSN contracts but seems apparent as ever in light of the questions facing those cap leagues.

* The Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers, and Twins are all broadcast by Bally.

The MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model Had Its Best Year Ever

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With the last of the arbitration hearings officially in the books, we can now officially report that this was the most accurate year that the MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model has ever had. The model estimated salaries within ten percent of salaries for 69% of cases – breaking the previous record of 65% and well above the 54% low point just three years ago.

When I began working on this model way back in 2011, I defined success based on how often my model was within ten percent of the actual arbitration salary for all arbitration-eligible players who signed one-year deals. The initial goal was to be within ten percent for half of such cases. For the 2011-12 arbitration season, the model was within ten percent on 55% of all cases. The model has consistently been in that range or higher, peaking at 65% in the 2014-15 arbitration season, while only dipping below it once with 54% in 2019-20. It averaged 58% over its first nine years. 

Over that time, I repeatedly ran tests on the model, considered new modeling techniques, and had discussions with agents and others with experience in the arbitration space about how to improve the model. There were steps forward, although after picking each piece of low-hanging fruit, the gains were smaller. Ultimately, I pivoted to a focus on more accurate and cleaner data. This was initially something that Bryan Grosnick helped with behind the scenes, and Darragh McDonald took over last year. They both helped tremendously. 

One important process change that I incorporated into model updates in recent years is checking which players would have been the “biggest misses” after updating the model. In many cases, the salaries that “missed” were not reflective of the actual salaries earned. Yet the model was awkwardly contorting itself to fit those purported outcomes. Some of the process of improving data quality was just a matter of finding typos. But in many cases, it was about correctly identifying the “true” arbitration salary a player received. When players avoid arbitration via settlement, they often get performance bonuses, signing bonuses, options for future years, or multi-year agreements. These cases are incorporated into the modeling process where appropriate, but sometimes the “salary” a player literally earned was not really intended to account for the actual arbitration award he would have gotten at a hearing. Cleaning the data involved some subjectivity, but it was designed to better record the intended salary that teams and agents were treating as a baseline when they negotiated more complicated agreements.

More tedious updates to data accuracy are not the most thrilling part of model building. Coming up with creative mathematical methods or just innovative variables to utilize is a more rewarding intellectual exercise for the researcher. But the truth is that better data is often more important than a slightly smarter model. I will continue to evolve the model based on the relevant statistics and factors utilized in the arbitration process, but in recent years I ultimately improved the model more with better data without structuring it differently.

As a result, the model should be more accurate in future years than it has been in the past. See below for a graph showing the performance of the model each year.

Rockies Notes: Bryant, Bird, Suter

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Kris Bryant’s first season in Colorado didn’t go as envisioned, with injuries combining to limit the former MVP to 42 games. Bryant hit well in that limited look, posting a .306/.376/.475 line with a career-low 14.9% strikeout rate, but he spent virtually the entire second half on the injured list due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

Now healthy for Spring Training, Bryant will get a second crack at serving as Colorado’s primary left fielder. Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette writes that the four-time All-Star also remains open to logging some time on the infield if needed. Bryant played exclusively left field or designated hitter during his first season in Denver, though he obviously has plenty of corner infield experience from his time with the Cubs and Giants.

The Rox already have a decent amount of corner infield depth. C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon are again lined up for work at first and third base, respectively. Michael Toglia and Sean Bouchard are on hand as first base options behind Cron. Offseason acquisition Nolan Jones and second-year player Elehuris Montero are bat-first players but can cover either corner infield slot. Alan Trejo and non-roster invitee Harold Castro are also in the mix as infield defenders with some flexibility to move around the diamond.

In other news out of Colorado:

  • Right-hander Jake Bird recently strained his left oblique, manager Bud Black informed reporters (including Thomas Harding of MLB.com). He’s expected to miss the next four to six weeks. That takes the 27-year-old out of play for the World Baseball Classic — where he’d been slated to represent Israel — and, of more import to Colorado fans, puts his availability for the start of the season in jeopardy. Bird made his major league debut last June and was a fairly frequent bullpen option down the stretch. He got into 38 contests, posting a 4.91 ERA across 47 2/3 innings. Bird’s strikeout and walk profile wasn’t especially impressive but he induced grounders on an excellent 55.7% of batted balls.
  • A pair of veteran bullpen pickups marked some of the biggest moves in a quiet Colorado offseason. Righty Pierce Johnson signed a one-year free agent deal, while the Rox claimed veteran southpaw Brent Suter off waivers from Milwaukee. Black told reporters he’d been among those pushing general manager Bill Schmidt to put in a claim once Milwaukee put Suter on waivers back in November (link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). With the Harvard product eligible for arbitration for a final time, the Brewers waived Suter after determining they weren’t going to tender him a contract. Colorado was happy to keep Suter around for his last arbitration season, with the sides agreeing to a $3MM salary within two weeks of the waiver claim. The 33-year-old posted a 3.78 ERA over 66 2/3 innings of long relief last season. He doesn’t throw hard or pick up many whiffs, but he consistently keeps the ball on the ground and fills the strike zone. The latter trait seems especially appealing to Colorado brass, as Black told reporters the club is emphasizing better strike-throwing at the back end of games. Rockies relievers walked 9.9% of opponents last season, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Red Sox, Tanner Houck Discussed Extension Last Year

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At some point last year, the Red Sox and right-hander Tanner Houck had some talks about an extension, though it doesn’t seem much progress was made. “Conversations, but nothing came of it,” Houck told Chris Cotillo of MassLive. “We’re pretty happy with where we’re at right now. There’s no reason to rush into anything.”

Houck, 27 in June, has pitched in the past three major league seasons, oscillating between the rotation and the bullpen but generally getting good results either way. Overall, he’s tossed 146 innings with a 3.02 ERA, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% of them and getting grounders at a 49.3% clip. Getting into the splits, he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and 2.68 as a reliever. He’s actually racked up more strikeouts out of the rotation, a 28.5% rate compared to a 25.9% rate out of the bullpen. But his .300 BABIP as a starter is a bit above his .274 mark as a reliever, and his 70.5% strand rate out of the rotation is a few ticks below his 77.3% mark from the ’pen.

In addition to that strong body of work, Houck also comes with the pedigree of being a first round pick, selected 24th overall in 2017. He is currently between one and two years of MLB service time, meaning he’s still shy of qualifying for arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until after the 2027 season, when he’ll be 31. There would be some risk in committing significant dollars to Houck since he fought lingering back issues last year and ultimately required surgery, but all pitchers generally have some injury flags on their profiles and there’s usually a point at which clubs are willing to take the risk.

It’s unknown exactly what kind of contract structures were floated, but the talks didn’t advance enough for the Sox to put forth a formal offer. “We never really even got that far,” Houck said. “(It was) a conversation. We talked here and there.”

It’s possible that the Red Sox were looking at Houck the same way they viewed Garrett Whitlock. A Rule 5 pick of the Yankees, Whitlock made his MLB debut in 2021 with 73 1/3 innings out of the Boston bullpen with a 1.96 ERA. Going into 2022, there was some consideration of returning Whitlock to the rotation since he had spent much of his minor league time there. In April of last year, before the campaign really got going, the two sides agreed on an $18.75MM extension that covered his remaining years of control, while also potentially giving the Sox control over two free agent years via club options. If Whitlock eventually emerges as a viable rotation candidate, that will turn into a bargain for the club, given the salaries typically earned by free agent starters. But it was also understandable why Whitlock would want to lock in that guaranteed money, since he was a relative late bloomer, just about to turn 26 at that time.

Houck is in a relatively similar position, showing plenty of potential but still not fully established and with huge paydays still a few years away. It doesn’t seem as though the ship has sailed on an extension, with Houck expressing openness. “If the opportunity on both sides is right, I’d be willing to, but both sides have to feel comfortable with an agreement,” he said. “I think it really depends on the individual person,” he elaborated. “If you’re willing to bet on yourself and believe that you can sign that bigger contract, then take the shot, in my opinion, if you’re a betting man. If you’re not and you like the security, it’s perfectly fine. There’s nothing wrong with it either way, but as an individual, I think you have to be okay with it.”

For 2023, Houck seems to have a blocked path to the rotation for now, though there will be many variables. Chris Sale and James Paxton could be at the front of the rotation, though neither has pitched much in the past three years due to injury. Corey Kluber is coming off a healthy season with the Rays but had three injury-marred years prior to that. Nick Pivetta has been the most reliable of the bunch though his status is now a little murky as he’s dropping out of the World Baseball Classic, per Cotillo, as he recently had COVID for a third time and isn’t recovering as hoped. Then there’s Whitlock and his nine career starts and younger guys like Brayan Bello and Brandon Walter.

The club has said they plan to stretch Houck out this spring but perhaps move him into bullpen role if he doesn’t have a spot in the rotation by Opening Day. Given all the uncertainty in the rotation, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get pencilled in as the starter at some point this year. “It’s not my decision. I’d love to start; that’s what I’ve done my whole career,” Houck recently told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “But I’ve got to help the team win in whatever way possible.”

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