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Revisiting The Best Fits For Jurickson Profar

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Jurickson Profar was one of just three players on our annual Top 50 free-agent list here at MLBTR who hadn’t agreed to terms on a new contract prior to the calendar flipping to 2023. Two months later, Profar is still a free agent and, unsurprisingly, is the final unsigned member of that same top 50 list.

It’s fair to wonder just how aggressive he and agent Scott Boras were early in the winter. Profar began his offseason by declining a $7.5MM player option. While he never seemed likely to sign any kind of mega-deal, even as someone who’s more bearish on the player than many, I anticipated that he’d surpass that level of compensation. We put a relatively modest two-year, $20MM prediction on Profar’s eventual contract, but MLBTR was lower than many on the veteran switch-hitter; the New York Post’s Jon Heyman put down a four-year, $48MM estimate, and The Athletic’s Keith Law pegged him at $15-18MM annually over a term of three to four years. To be clear, the intent in highlighting those predictions is not to criticize them — we’ve had more than our share of misses in this regard — but rather to highlight that there was a wide range of outcomes that onlookers viewed as reasonable with regard to Profar.

Whatever contract Profar and Boras sought clearly hasn’t been there to this point. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that Profar was at one point seeking a contract that’d pay him $10MM per season. It’s worth emphasizing that Kuty doesn’t specify whether that’s a current asking price or whether it’s on a multi-year pact. Regardless, Profar turned down a $7.5MM deal to remain in San Diego, so it’s not a huge shock to see there’s been a point where his camp was eyeing an eight-figure annual salary.

It’s hard to imagine Profar securing that $10MM AAV at this point, even on a one-year deal. Prices on recent free-agent signings have been more modest than early in the winter. Late signees like Matt Moore ($7.55MM), David Peralta ($6.5MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), Michael Fulmer ($4MM), Elvis Andrus ($3MM), Brad Hand ($2MM), Robbie Grossman ($2MM) and Will Smith ($1.5MM) have all come in south of that $10MM sum. No free agent has reached a $10MM AAV since Carlos Correa finalized his deal to return to the Twins on Jan. 11.

Perhaps Profar can yet buck that trend. He only just turned 30 and is coming off a decent 2022 season in which he batted .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and a career-high 36 doubles. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills, has upped his walk rate over the past couple seasons, and generally graded as an average or slightly worse defender in left field for the Padres.

That last point, in particular, is worth expanding on a bit. Many onlookers have wondered why Profar hasn’t emerged as a more viable option for the many teams in need of infield help. Profar, after all, was the game’s No. 1 overall prospect a decade ago when he was rising through the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop. However, he’s since had a pair of shoulder surgeries, moved to the other side of the second base bag, and (during his time with the A’s) developed a case of the yips that eventually pushed him to left field.

The A’s traded Profar to San Diego after just one year, and the Padres gave him all of 197 innings at second base from 2020-22 — none of which came this past season. The Friars were shorthanded enough in the infield that they signed Robinson Cano after he was released by the Mets on the heels of a .195/.233/.268 showing. That they were content to give that version of Cano 40 innings at second base but didn’t move Profar into the infield isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of his ability to play the position.

At this point, it’s hard to consider Profar anything other than a left fielder. He’s played 156 innings of center in the big leagues (2020-21 in San Diego) and 208 innings in right field (again, 2020-21 with the Padres), but neither sample drew strong or even average ratings. Profar’s average sprint speed, per Statcast, was in the 32nd percentile of MLB players in 2022. His outfield jumps were in the 37th percentile, and his 87 mph average velocity on his throws from left field ranked 95th among 156 qualified outfielders. With limited speed, below-average jumps and below-average arm strength, center or right could be a stretch for Profar.

Profar is a switch-hitter with slightly better-than-average results at the plate, modest defensive upside in left field and perhaps an emergency infield option. He walks at a high clip and puts the ball in play far more often than the standard big league hitter. The quality of that contact isn’t particularly strong (87.5 mph exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit rate, 4% barrel rate), but there’s something to be said for just putting the ball in play — particularly as shifts are more limited in 2023 and beyond. A slightly above-average offensive left fielder isn’t a star, but it’s a solid player. Jean Segura has a similar skill set in the infield, and he received $17MM on a two-year deal.

Even that type of deal might be out of reach at this point, but assuming Profar can still land a one- or two-year deal in the near future, he can obviously help a club in search of some corner outfield reinforcements. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look back in early January at which teams made the most sense for Profar based on their lack of left field production in 2022, but it seems like an exercise worth revisiting. The market and many rosters have changed since that time. Profar is now the only viable regular remaining in free agency, and several teams that might’ve made sense as a suitor back on Jan. 2 look less likely to add him now. The Rangers, for instance, have since signed Robbie Grossman. The Marlins moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center and acquired Luis Arraez to play second, which means they’ll stick with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz in left.

Let’s take a look at some clubs that still seem like they could use in left field — and perhaps why those teams haven’t yet more earnestly pursued Profar. He’d likely require somewhere that can grant him mostly regular playing time, which makes the incumbent Padres a tough fit once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and joins Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in the outfield.

Postseason Hopefuls

  • Yankees: The Yankees are one of the most oft-cited — if not the most oft-cited — speculative fits for Profar. It’s not hard to see why, considering their left fielders combined for a .224/.312/.391 output last season. Oft-injured Aaron Hicks, still owed three years and $30.5MM on his contract, and young Oswaldo Cabrera are the two favorites. The latter outproduced the former by a wide margin last season, but Hicks’ contract will probably get him another look. The Yankees are loath to step into the fourth and final luxury-tax tier, however, and signing Profar (or just about anyone, really) will put them into that bracket and come with a 90% dollar-for-dollar hit on any contract. There’s also no clear indication that Profar is a huge upgrade over in-house options. His .243/.331/.391 slash line last year isn’t that different from the .224/.312/.391 output for which the Yankees combined. Yes, Profar’s numbers would probably tick up a bit playing his home games at Yankee Stadium instead of Petco Park. But even the Yankees’ tepid left field production last year was good for a 103 wRC+; Profar was at 110 himself.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s left fielders hit .238/.285/.431 in 2022, and that includes a combined 175 productive plate appearances from Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman and William Contreras, none of whom are on the team any longer. Veterans Marcell Ozuna (.226/.274/.413 in 2022) and Eddie Rosario (.212/.259/.328) are the primary options here, with Sam Hilliard, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and non-roster invitees Kevin Pillar and Magneuris Sierra providing depth. There’s clearly room for an upgrade, but the Braves are paying Ozuna and Rosario a combined $27MM in 2023 and probably don’t want to sign a third left fielder to add to that sum. More broadly, the Braves just haven’t spent much of anything in free agency this winter; their lone big roster splash was a trade bringing Sean Murphy in from the A’s. They’re into the first tier of luxury territory, so Profar would cost them 20% penalty on top of his contract.
  • Rays: Tampa Bay has been looking for a left-handed bat for much of the winter. Profar would help to balance out the lineup, likely splitting time with Randy Arozarena in left field and at designated hitter. That could cut into Harold Ramirez’s playing time or push him to first base more often, with Yandy Diaz sliding back to third (at the expense of Isaac Paredes). As with most Rays moves, it’d require a whole lot of moving parts and likely push some MLB-worthy bats off the roster and into the upper minors to serve as depth in the event of injuries. Profar’s offensive upside is limited, so the Rays probably feel confident they can match it with in-house options. The likely price tag hurts as well.
  • Rangers: The Rangers already signed Grossman, so perhaps they have no interest in adding another outfielder. Grossman’s not a clear everyday option in left field, though, and center fielder Leody Taveras is a little banged up, which could push Adolis Garcia from right to center early in the season. If Texas had a clear option at DH, this wouldn’t work as well, but they don’t. The Rangers could add Profar, go with him/Taveras/Garcia across the outfield when everyone’s at full strength, and use Grossman as a reserve corner outfielder and part-time DH.

Rebuilding Clubs

  • Royals: Kansas City doesn’t have a single established outfielder on the roster. They’ll go with a combination of Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Nate Eaton, catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, corner bat Hunter Dozier and, once healthy, former top prospect Drew Waters. Olivares, Isbel, Eaton, Melendez and Waters all have minor league options remaining. Non-roster vets like Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. could eventually impact this group, too, but there’s room for a solid veteran right now. Then again, the Royals waited until they’d cleared the salaries of Adalberto Mondesi and Michael A. Taylor in respective trades with the Red Sox and Twins before they even brought righty Zack Greinke back on a one-year, $8.5MM contract. They may not want to or have ownership permission to sign another free agent with a notable salary.
  • Reds: The Reds will cycle through Wil Myers, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, Nick Solak, Stuart Fairchild and perhaps non-roster veteran Chad Pinder in the outfield corners this season. Myers will see his share of time at first base, too, as Joey Votto recovers from 2022 shoulder surgery. Friedl and particularly Fraley hit well enough last year that it’s understandable if Cincinnati wants to get them some extra looks, but Fraley has been on the IL five times in the past three seasons, including a 60-day IL stint last year for knee troubles. Center fielder Nick Senzel has also had repeated health troubles. Signing Profar deepens the lineup and adds a potential deadline chip for a rebuilding Cincinnati club, but the Reds have spent under $14MM in free agency and probably view Myers as the lone corner-outfield addition they’d prefer to make.
  • Tigers: The Detroit outfield is composed largely of rebound candidates, where each of Akil Baddoo, Austin Meadows and top prospect Riley Greene will look for better results in 2023 than they had in 2022. Twenty-five-year-old Kerry Carpenter will also get his share of opportunity after a blasting 36 homers between the upper-minors and MLB. Reserve option Matt Vierling can and will at times handle all three outfield spots. From a depth standpoint, prospects Parker Meadows (Austin’s younger brother) and Justyn-Henry Malloy could both reach the big leagues in 2023, but Meadows hasn’t played above Double-A and Malloy has only eight games there.

Realistically, you could squint and shoehorn Profar onto a number of teams. He’s not going to be so highly compensated that he couldn’t be pushed to a bench role eventually or even traded, and enough teams have at least one shaky option in the outfield corners that you could justify signing him as an upgrade. At this point, it could take a spring injury to really motivate a team to sign him at a decent salary, though.

The other element at play here is the looming World Baseball Classic. Profar, a native of Curacao, is suiting up for the Netherlands and could look to use the tournament to showcase himself for MLB clubs. The WBC will give him some reps to help get ready for the season, and it’s possible that a big league team will suffer an outfield injury while the tournament is ongoing. If that happens, Profar could pitch himself as a game-ready replacement who could join up with a new team and be ready to step right onto the Opening Day roster.

The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

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An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

Yankees Notes: Kahnle, Cortes, Kiner-Falefa

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Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle is in the midst of a 10-day shutdown after battling some biceps tendinitis. It doesn’t seem the club is overly concerned, with manager Aaron Boone saying yesterday he anticipated the right-hander would have sufficient time to prepare for Opening Day.

Kahnle chatted with reporters this evening, likening it to a similar issue he experienced back in 2018 (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). He estimated it’d take roughly a month to completely dissipate. That doesn’t inherently mean he’ll start the year on the injured list, though with Opening Day three and a half weeks out, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he wound up requiring a brief IL stint. Signed to a two-year, $11.5MM free agent deal, Kahnle will be ticketed for high-leverage work in the Bronx once he’s healthy.

Even more integral to the club’s success is southpaw Nestor Cortes. An All-Star in 2022 during a season in which he worked to an excellent 2.44 ERA through 158 1/3 frames, Cortes has cemented himself as a key starter. On talent, he’s arguably the #3 option behind Gerrit Cole and big-ticket free agent signee Carlos Rodón. Yet the 28-year-old has been slowed a bit in recent weeks after suffering a Grade 2 hamstring strain in February.

That injury forced Cortes out of the World Baseball Classic but the Yankees have maintained optimism it wouldn’t affect his availability for the start of the season. That remains more or less the case. Boone told the media yesterday the Yankees were planing to move Cortes towards the back of the rotation to give him a few extra days to ramp up (via Erik Boland of Newsday). That might get Luis Severino and either of Clarke Schmidt or Domingo Germán — who appear to be the top competitors for the vacant final rotation spot — on the mound a day or two earlier than anticipated but suggests New York still believes Cortes will avoid a trip to the injured list.

The competition between Germán and Schmidt for the last starting spot, necessitated by the Frankie Montas injury, is one of a handful of position battles for the Yankees to sort through over the coming weeks. On the position player side, the club’s biggest decisions revolve around shortstop and left field. There could be some unexpected overlap between those calls, as Boone told reporters the club could consider getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa some outfield work (link via Chris Kirschner and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic).

Kiner-Falefa has never played the outfield at the major league level. He started only seven games on the grass while coming up through the minor leagues. After beginning his career as a middle infielder, Kiner-Falefa started to see some action behind the plate during his time in the Rangers’ system. He caught at the big league level from 2018-19 but eventually transitioned back to the infield — first as a high-end defensive third baseman and eventually as a primary shortstop.

While Defensive Runs Saved has loved Kiner-Falefa’s shortstop work, Statcast’s Outs Above Average has rated him much less favorably than when he was at the hot corner. While there might be some debate about his defense, Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been more consistent. He’s a high-contact hitter who doesn’t walk a whole lot or hit for much power. Last year’s .261/.314/.327 performance was right in line with his career track record.

The Yankees broke in top prospect Oswald Peraza late last year and could turn shortstop over to him on an everyday basis headed into 2023. The 22-year-old acquitted himself well over an 18-game MLB cameo on the heels of a .259/.329/.448 line in 99 Triple-A games. With another top prospect, Anthony Volpe, on the horizon, it doesn’t seem Kiner-Falefa will hold the shortstop job for long even if he secures the Opening Day nod.

Branching out into the outfield makes for a reasonable experiment to expand his flexibility for a possible bench role. While Harrison Bader and Aaron Judge have two spots secured, left field mostly seems set to come down to Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Cabrera. While Kiner-Falefa isn’t the caliber of hitter a team would be anxious to pencil into the corner outfield regularly, it wouldn’t be surprising if he proves himself capable from a defensive perspective. He’s a good runner and has already shown the willingness and ability to adapt to a number of infield responsibilities. Branching out into the outfield could position him to take on a super-utility role if he’s squeezed out of the regular middle infield by some combination of Peraza, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu and eventually Volpe.

A’s Notes: Allen, Snead, Stadium

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The A’s head into what’s all but certain to be a noncompetitive season, one which is more about gauging the progress of young players than short-term results. That’d point towards 24-year-old Nick Allen being the favorite for the shortstop job. Long seen as one of the more intriguing prospects in the system thanks to his defensive ability, Allen indeed impressed with the glove over 809 innings in the middle infield as a rookie. He paired that with well below-average offense, however, posting a .207/.256/.291 line with only four home runs and a meager 5.8% walk percentage through 326 plate appearances.

General manager David Forst was noncommittal about the shortstop position over the weekend, telling reporters he doesn’t “know that we have anything penciled in” (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Forst pointed to veteran utilityman Aledmys Díaz — signed to a two-year, $14.5MM free agent deal — as an alternative. Díaz has plenty of experience throughout the infield and is better suited for second or third base defensively, though he’s a more consistent hitter than Allen has yet proven himself to be.

Concerns about Allen’s offense have persisted since his time in the minors, thanks largely to questions about how much impact potential he has in a 5’8″ frame. The former third-round draftee showed decent bat-to-ball skills as a rookie but only made hard contact on 22.3% of his batted balls — the fifth-lowest rate among hitters with at least 200 such events. Forst noted that Allen could continue to see work at second base as well. Aside from Díaz, veteran Tony Kemp and offseason pickup Jace Peterson can work at the keystone and/or at third base.

In other news out of Oakland:

  • Kawahara also notes there could be an opportunity for non-roster invitees Jake Fishman or Garrett Williams to crack the roster as a left-handed bullpen option out of camp. That’s in part due to some health uncertainty for southpaw Kirby Snead. As noted by the MLB.com injury tracker, Snead has been shut down from throwing indefinitely after suffering a strain in his throwing shoulder late last month. Acquired from the Blue Jays last spring as part of the Matt Chapman deal, the 28-year-old pitched in 46 games for the A’s last season. He allowed a 5.84 ERA across 44 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 16.7% of opposing hitters. Snead, who still has a minor league option year remaining, had been vying for a job as a second lefty behind Sam Moll in the relief hierarchy.
  • The A’s hosted the Reds for a series in Las Vegas over the weekend as part of Cactus League play. While a pair of exhibition games won’t have any impact on the franchise’s ongoing stadium uncertainty, it naturally led to some renewed attention about the matter. Forst downplayed the series’ relevance to the stadium search, pointing out that the A’s Triple-A affiliate plays in Vegas (link via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). The GM indicated he didn’t have any preference regarding the franchise’s ultimate destination. “I don’t take sides,” Forst said of the cities. “I have to be focused on us getting a ballpark. (Team president Dave Kaval) is focused on where it’s going to be. We (in baseball operations) really can’t spend a lot of time thinking about the ‘where’ right now.” At the Winter Meetings in December, commissioner Rob Manfred pointed to January 15, 2024 as something of a deadline for the A’s to have a binding stadium agreement (Associated Press link). Under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, the A’s would lose their status as a recipient of revenue sharing payments if no deal is agreed upon, either in Oakland or elsewhere, by that date.

Rockies Sign Brad Hand

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MARCH 6: The 2024 option would convert into a mutual option if Hand either finishes 25 games or is traded at any point during the upcoming season, reports the Associated Press. Hand could earn an additional $1MM in performance bonuses both this season and during 2024 (if the option is triggered). He’d receive $250K apiece at 40 and 50 appearances and $500K if he gets into 60 games.

MARCH 4: The Rockies announced agreement with reliever Brad Hand on a one-year deal on Saturday. It’s a $2MM guarantee, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter links).  The guaranteed money breaks down as a $1.5MM salary in 2023, and then a $500K buyout of a $7MM club option the Rockies hold on Hand’s services for the 2024 season.  Another $1MM bonus is available for Hand if he is still in the organization by Opening Day, with Rosenthal noting that means either on the active roster or on the injured list.  Hand turns 33 later this month. He is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Right-hander Tyler Kinley will be placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster space for Hand, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter link).  Kinley is expected to be out of action until at least midseason after undergoing elbow surgery last June.

Once Hand appears in an official game in the purple pinstripes, it will mark 13 MLB seasons and eight different teams for the veteran southpaw.  Hand inked a one-year, $6MM with the Phillies last winter and contributed to the Phils’ push to the NL pennant, delivering a 2.80 ERA over 45 regular-season innings and then a 4.76 ERA in 5 2/3 postseason frames.  That small sample size of playoff work was perhaps more reflective of Hand’s overall quality in 2022, as he had a 4.51 SIERA and 4.90 xFIP, and his .297 wOBA was well under his .323 xwOBA.  Hand did a very good job of limiting hard contact last year, but with subpar strikeout and walk rates.

All things considered, Hand’s 2022 advanced metrics weren’t far removed — or in some cases were worse — than his 2021 metrics, though he had a lot more good fortune with that 2.80 ERA as opposed to his 3.90 mark with the Nationals, Mets, and Blue Jays in 2021.  (MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a deeper dive into Hand’s 2022 performance.) Hand was also a lot better at keeping the ball in the park with the Phillies — he allowed only two homers in his 45 frames last year, after giving up nine long balls over 64 2/3 innings in 2021.

The soft contact and ability to keep the ball in the park is naturally of interest for a team that plays in Coors Field, and the Rockies ended up acquiring Hand after a relatively quiet offseason in terms of publicly-known interest.  The Cubs and Twins were both linked to Hand over the last month, though in general, the market for left-handed relief pitching was mostly pretty slow after an initial flurry prior to Christmas.  Only in recent weeks has the ice started to thaw, as names like Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, and (just earlier today) Will Smith have now come off the board.

Speaking of quiet offseasons, the Rockies haven’t done a whole lot of note this winter, much to the consternation of fans who saw the club lose 94 games in 2022.  Colorado has done a fair amount of work in the bullpen, at least, as Hand joins such names as Pierce Johnson, Nick Mears, and fellow left-handers Brent Suter and Ty Blach and Fernando Abad.  Since Blach and Abad were minor league signings, Hand’s deal might push one or both of those other lefties out of consideration for spot on the Opening Day roster.

The club option also gives Colorado some control over Hand’s future if he does fully regain his past form.  Hand was one of the better relievers in the sport when pitching with San Diego and Cleveland from 2016-20, and naturally the Rockies saw him often back in his Padres days.  Since Johnson, Suter, and Dinelson Lamet are all slated for free agency after the 2023 season, the Rockies could keep at least one pitcher in the fold by exercising Hand’s option, if he pitches well enough to make that $6.5MM decision a wise one for the Rox.

The Cubs-Dodgers Outfield Swap Puts Them In Different Positions

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The Cubs and Dodgers didn’t make a trade this offseason, but a series of transactions effectively added up to one. Here’s what I mean.

  • August of 2022: Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announces they will release Jason Heyward at the end of the season.
  • November of 2022: Heyward officially released.
  • November of 2022: Cody Bellinger is non-tendered by the Dodgers.
  • December of 2022: Cubs sign Bellinger to one-year deal.
  • December of 2022: Dodgers sign Heyward to a minor league deal.

Both clubs had a long-tenured outfielder that was posting disappointing results. In both cases, they could have kept the player for one more year. Heyward still had one season left on his contract while Bellinger still had one arbitration season remaining. But in both cases, the club decided to cut bait, then swooped in to collect the other team’s castoff.

Now each club is going to be trying to coax a bounceback season from their respective new outfielder. In a vacuum, the Cubs are more likely to succeed. Bellinger has struggled over the past two years, producing a dismal .165/.240/.302 batting line in 2021 and then a subpar .210/.265/.389 slash last year. However, he was above average in 2020 and was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019. He launched 47 home runs in that MVP season while hitting .305/.406/.629 for a wRC+ of 161. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his defensive work, being deemed to be worth 7.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Heyward, on the other hand, has never really touched that kind of ceiling, and certainly not recently. He had a strong showing at the plate in 2020 but hasn’t been an above average hitter in a full season since 2015. He hit .293/.359/.439 for the Cardinals that year, leading to a 121 wRC+. He also stole 23 bases and was strong in the field, leading to a 5.6 fWAR tally. However, he’s been well below that type of production since then, including being below replacement level last year.

Bellinger was himself below replacement level in 2021, but that was at least partly caused by shoulder issues. Both players have struggled in recent years but Bellinger was an MVP not too long ago. Heyward has never been on that tier and hasn’t been close in almost a decade. Bellinger also plays the more premier position, as he figures to be the Cubs’ everyday center fielder. Heyward has played center on occasion but has primarily been a right fielder in his career. Given that Bellinger is only 27 years old and Heyward is 33, the likelihood of a return to form would seem to be stronger with Bellinger.

The Cubs seem to have backed the horse more likely to end up in the winner’s circle, but they also have way more on the line. Heyward still had $22MM left on his deal when he was released and the Cubs are still on the hook for that. Assuming he is eventually added to the Dodgers’ roster, they will only be responsible for paying him the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay.

Bellinger, on the other hand, isn’t owed anything by the Dodgers since they didn’t tender him a contract for this year. The Cubs brought him aboard by guaranteeing him $17.5MM, in the form of a $12.5MM salary and $5MM buyout on a mutual option for 2024. That means that the Cubs are paying the salaries of both players, with the figures combining to be worth almost $40MM. The Dodgers aren’t really committed to either player right now and won’t even be paying meaningful money if Heyward does make the team.

Heyward’s chances of cracking the roster seem to have increased lately. With Gavin Lux potentially out for the entire season, it seems that Chris Taylor will be spending more time on the infield and less in the outfield. That subtracts from the club’s outfield depth a bit, perhaps increasing the need for a non-roster invitee like Heyward.

There’s also a bit of positive buzz around Heyward in spring so far. Last month, Freddie Freeman told reporters, including Alden González of ESPN, that Heyward had altered his stance and “might have unlocked something.” Heyward has four hits in ten at-bats so far this spring, including a pair of home runs. A few good spring games don’t mean much and it’s dangerous to draw meaningful conclusions from them, but it’s nonetheless encouraging, especially given the club’s penchant for helping journeymen find the best versions of themselves. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Heyward is impressing L.A. officials and expected to make the team.

Again, this isn’t to get carried away. The season hasn’t even begun and a few good spring games shouldn’t make us forget about Heyward’s past six full seasons. It’s entirely possible that he continues to disappoint and this hot spring eventually becomes a footnote. But the Dodgers have little to lose in that case. It might be a bit embarrassing if Bellinger returns to form after they let him go for nothing. But at least they saved his salary, which was projected to be $18.1MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They were then able to redirect that money into players like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez, who will cost $23MM combined this year.

The Cubs are perhaps facing a much more cringeworthy worst-case scenario. There is some non-zero chance that they have to watch Heyward thrive in Los Angeles while Bellinger struggles in Chicago, as they pay the salaries of both players. Time will tell whether that scenario is likely or not, but the Cubs have almost forty million reasons to hope it doesn’t come true.

Justin Turner Removed From Game After Being Hit In Face With Pitch

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5:20 pm: Turner’s wife Kourtney took to Twitter to thank people for all the kinds words that were shared today. In the message, she relays that Turner had 16 stitches and a lot of swelling, but no fractures and clear scans.

2:10 pm: The Sox provided reporters an update on Turner, with Abraham among those to relay it (Twitter links). Turner is receiving treatment for soft tissue injuries and is being monitored for a concussion. The club also says he is stable, alert and in good spirits given the circumstances. More updates will follow after further testing.

1:50 pm: Red Sox infielder Justin Turner was removed from today’s spring game after being hit in the face with a pitch, per multiple reports. Turner was able to walk off the field but appeared to be bleeding quite a bit, with a trainer holding a towel to hiss face. Tom Caron of NESN was among those who shared video of the incident on Twitter, for those who aren’t squeamish and want to view the plate appearance in question. The severity of Turner’s injury isn’t known at this time but Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Turner was taken to hospital in an ambulance.

With so little info about the extent of Turner’s injuries, we can’t know what to expect in the near future in terms of an absence. It’s possible that there will be on-field implications for the club at some point, but for now, the primary concern will be his health. Turner has been in the majors for over a decade, is now in his fifth different organization and seems to be generally respected and beloved throughout the league. There will surely be dozens of people throughout the game holding their breath until more information is forthcoming.

Turner, 38, had been a mainstay of the Dodgers for many years. He broke out with that club in 2014 and was with them through last year. They could have retained him for 2023 via a $16MM club option but they went for the $2MM buyout instead. Turner became a free agent and garnered interest from the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Twins before signing with the Red Sox. The deal is officially for two years and $21.7MM, though with a complicated structure. He will make $8.3MM this season before deciding between a $13.4MM player option for 2024 and a $6.7MM buyout. There’s also $1MM in potential incentives available to him based on plate appearances, getting $200K for 480, 500, 520, 540 and 560.

Turner has primarily been a third baseman in his career but spent about half his time as the designated hitter for the Dodgers last year. The Red Sox have Rafael Devers at the hot corner and seemed likely to deploy Turner as a DH or perhaps spelling rookie Triston Casas at first base on occasion. Those plans may have to change if Turner is significantly hurt, though the Red Sox and Turner’s many friends throughout the game will be hoping that’s not the case.

José Quintana Diagnosed With Stress Fracture In Rib

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The Mets informed reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday, that left-hander José Quintana has a “small stress fracture” in his fifth rib on his left side. He left his spring outing yesterday with side tightness and later announced that he was withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic. He is leaving camp and headed to New York for further imaging. The club does not have a timeline on his recovery yet.

Quintana, 34, was pencilled in to be a key piece of the Mets’ rotation this year after signing a two-year, $26MM deal in the offseason. He had a rough couple of seasons in 2020 and 2021 but bounced back nicely last year with the Pirates and Cardinals. He tossed 165 2/3 innings between the two clubs with a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. The Mets signed him to that two-year pact and hoped to have him in their rotation alongside Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Carlos Carrasco.

At this point, it’s still unclear what the next steps will be, but it seems like Quintana will at least be delayed. There’s just over three weeks until Opening Day at this point. Even if he’s able to return to the mound in short order, he would still need some time to build up his pitch count.

It was around this time last year that Red Sox lefty Chris Sale was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib, which prevented him from making his season debut until July. That’s not to say Quintana is facing the same absence, as all injuries are unique and players respond to them differently. However, it does illustrate that the diagnosis has the chance to be significant.

We don’t know what kind of absence Quintana ultimately will require, but the Mets have depth options on their roster if Quintana does eventually need to miss some of the regular season. Joey Lucchesi was recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2022 and missed all of the MLB season. He began a rehab assignment in August of last year and pitched 12 2/3 minor league innings before the winter arrived. Back in 2019, he made 30 starts for the Padres and posted a 4.18 ERA. Tylor Megill made nine starts and six relief appearances for the club last year, posting a combined 5.13 ERA. David Peterson had a 3.83 ERA across 19 starts and nine relief appearances last year and would perhaps be the first one called up to take a rotation job. He recently had his own injury scare when a comebacker hit him in the foot, though it seems he escaped with just a contusion and is day-to-day. All three of Lucchesi, Megill and Peterson have options, allowing them to be stretched out in the minors whenever their services are not required by the big league club.

Mariners Release Nick Margevicius

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The Mariners announced today that left-hander Nick Margevicius has been released. Their spring camp is now down to 71 players.

Margevicius, 27 in June, once seemed like he was on a path to being a useful big league starter but has been held back by injuries in recent years. Originally drafted by the Padres, that club made the aggressive move of adding Margevicius to their Opening Day roster in 2019. At that time, the lefty had yet to pitch above High-A but he was coming off a strong season in the lower levels of the farm. He posted a 3.60 ERA in 135 minor league innings in 2018, striking out 26% of batters and walking just 3%.

Unfortunately, there hasn’t been much to be excited about since that time. Margevicius had a 6.79 ERA in his first major league season and got put on waivers prior to the 2020 campaign. The Mariners claimed him and then saw him put up a respectable 4.57 ERA in 2020. But he tossed 12 innings for the club early in 2021 before requiring surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May, wiping out the latter parts of that season.

He was able to return to the mound last year but struggled in his first few Triple-A outings and got designated for assignment in May. He cleared waivers and was outrighted, sticking with the M’s in a non-roster capacity. He eventually tossed 49 Triple-A innings last year but with a 7.53 ERA. He was surely victimized by a bit of bad luck, as he allowed a .422 batting average on balls in play and had a 61.4% strand rate, but his 5.49 FIP and 5.80 xFIP were still quite high.

It seems the M’s would prefer to get a look at some other arms in camp and have let Margevicius go to explore other opportunities. If he can latch on with a different organization, perhaps he can get into a better groove now that he’s further removed from his surgery. If he eventually earns himself a roster spot, he still has an option remaining and less than three years of MLB service time.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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After five straight dismal seasons, the Orioles finally showed signs of life in 2022. Their farm system truly started producing for the big league club and they won 83 games, their best tally since 2016. That led to hopes of an aggressive winter, with general manager Mike Elias fanning those flames as the offseason was ramping up. But in the end, the club avoided big splashes and stuck to a few modest moves. The future is still bright in Baltimore as the organization is loaded with young talent, but a true pedal-to-the-metal move hasn’t materialized yet.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $23MM
Total spending: $23MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” general manager Mike Elias said in August. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans.  I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying.  I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

Here’s another Elias comment from August, relayed by Dan Connolly of The Athletic: “I think it’s liftoff from here for this team.”

Those comments surely led to a wide spectrum of interpretations and expectations among the club’s fanbase. Some might have been on the more skeptical side, while others might have been dreaming of a big splash such as one of the top shortstops or an elite starter. The club reportedly did sniff around the “Big Four” shortstops but never really seemed to be close to getting anything done there. They were also connected to starters like Carlos Rodón and Jameson Taillon and others. But again, they never really seemed to close to winning those bids and those players ultimately signed elsewhere.

The club did make a couple of moves for their rotation, but nothing approaching the level of a Rodón or a Taillon. They turned down an $11MM option over veteran Jordan Lyles, opting instead for the $1MM buyout. A few weeks later, they redirected the $10MM they saved to another veteran innings eater in Kyle Gibson. On the surface, that actually seems like something of a downgrade, as Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA last year to Gibson’s 5.05. One could dig deeper and find that Gibson had better peripherals and a lower FIP, and this will perhaps turn into a savvy swap. But in the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a move that is essentially net neutral.

The other new addition to the rotation is Cole Irvin, acquired from the A’s with each team getting a new prospect in the deal as well. Irvin is somewhat similar to Gibson in that he’s expected to be a competent but not elite member of the rotation. He made 62 starts for the A’s over the past two years with a 4.11 ERA, but will be moving from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum to the AL East. Oriole Park is a bit kinder to pitchers since they moved the left field fence back last year, but Irvin will still have to take the mound in the less-friendly stadiums around the division while facing some strong lineups. He has done well over the past couple of seasons and is cheap since he’s yet to reach arbitration, but there’s some risk here.

There were also some modest additions made to the position player mix. Adam Frazier was brought aboard with a one-year deal to essentially replace Rougned Odor as the veteran second baseman. He’s coming off a down year at the plate but is generally graded well with the glove. His bat has oscillated hot and cold over the years, and he’ll be a nice piece if he can have one of those good seasons. If one of the Orioles’ many infield prospect eventually pushes for a larger share of the second base reps, Frazier has plenty of experience in left field, too.

The club also bought low by acquiring James McCann from the Mets, as he’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons. He still has two years remaining on his four-year, $40.6MM deal, but the Mets are paying down most of it. The O’s will only be responsible for paying $5MM total over those two years. With Adley Rutschman firmly cemented as the backstop for years to come, the O’s only need McCann to be a serviceable backup. If his bat rebounds to where it was in 2019 and 2020, that would be a nice bonus, but they’re not relying on it. Notably, McCann has a strong track record against lefties (despite a poor showing in 2022), and the switch-hitting Rutschman was far better as a left-handed hitter than as a right-handed hitter during his debut season. The O’s aren’t going to immediately relegate Rutschman to platoon status, but McCann still gives them some nice balance in their catching duo.

And what else? Mychal Givens got $5MM to bring an established veteran presence to the bullpen. The depth was fortified by waiver claims on players like Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Díaz, twice in the latter case. Both players were eventually outrighted to serve as non-roster depth alongside minor league signees like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero. That’s about it.

As mentioned earlier, fans likely had varying ideas of what to expect this winter with those comments from Elias, but it’s hard to really feel like this is what he had in mind. The club’s current payroll is effectively stagnant relative to the end of last year, with Roster Resource putting a $63MM figure on both tallies. That places them 29th in the league, with only the A’s behind them. After saying he would “significantly” escalate the payroll, it’s hard to characterize that as anything but a disappointment. Was it “a lot of fun,” as Elias predicted, to swap Lyles for Gibson and then add Irvin, McCann, Frazier and Givens?

The disparity between the promise and the delivery might be chalked up to the changes in the offseason environment. Most of the marquee free agents beat the industry projections, often by wide margins. Xander Bogaerts, for instance, got around $100MM more than most expected. Even mid-rotation starters like Taillon and Taijuan Walker did much better than their projections. Perhaps Elias expected to come away with more here and was simply priced out. There would be little sense in raising hopes if he had no intention in coming through.

Regardless of how or why it happened, the O’s are going into 2023 with a fairly similar roster to last year, which isn’t really a bad thing. The club’s farm system truly started to bear fruit at the big league level last year, with prospects like Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers and others debuting and showing strong potential. There’s even more coming through the pipeline with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the best pitching prospects in the league, potentially jumping right into the Opening Day rotation here in 2023.

Those should be fixtures on the big league team this year and for years to come, alongside other incumbents like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and others. The pitching seems a little less exciting, with Gibson and Irvin joined by some other hurlers that are still trying to cement themselves as viable big leaguers, such as Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and Tyler Wells.

Despite all those prospects jumping up to the big leagues, the system still has more. After Rodriguez, the club also has highly-regarded prospects like DL Hall, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday. Aside from Holliday, those guys will all be in the upper levels of the minors and could join the team this year depending on how the year progresses.

Overall, the club is still in great shape for the future, as they are loaded with young and controllable talent. The lack of recent spending means that there’s close to nothing on the books going forward. But it was hoped by many that the young core would be supplemented by aggressive moves to add established veterans. Elias asserted that was the plan and did bring in some complementary pieces, but not really at the level he seemed to imply.

Leaving aside the players for a moment, another key storyline for the Orioles this winter was the apparent turmoil within the Angelos family. Peter Angelos has owned the team for decades but has been suffering poor health since he collapsed in 2017. It seems that his wife Georgia and their two sons, John and Louis, have been in disagreement about how to proceed with the franchise. It was reported in June of last year that John had been approved by MLB as Baltimore’s “control person” but with Louis suing his brother over those developments and others. Georgia then filed a countersuit against Louis, alleging he fabricated claims in his own attempt to seize power. Despite that seemingly ugly battle, an agreement was reached in February whereby all parties agreed to drop their lawsuits.

Amid all those lawsuits were accusations about a potential sale of the club, with John and Georgia both accused of trying to explore the possibility at times. Alongside this, the club declined a five-year lease extension at Camden Yards in February. That creates some uncertainty about the club’s future in Baltimore, but it seems that this is merely a temporary issue. The club is hoping to get a new deal in place that’s 10-15 years in length so that the Maryland Stadium Authority can qualify for a $600MM loan for stadium upgrades. John Angelos has been adamant that the club is not looking to relocate, nor are they seriously pursuing a sale. He’s also said they would like to get into the top half of the league in terms of spending at some point.

That provides some hope for the future, but that didn’t come to fruition this winter. As mentioned, the club’s payroll is higher than last year but still just 29th among the 30 clubs in the league. Despite a winter devoid of splashy moves, the on-field product is still in decent shape. They won 83 games last year and still have plenty of prospects on the rise. However, young players don’t always progress in a linear fashion, and this particular group will be trying to compete in what is arguably the strongest division in the league. There’s light over the horizon, but it’s still not clear how close the new dawn really is.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason?
C 44.01% (1,239 votes)
D 25.83% (727 votes)
B 18.33% (516 votes)
F 8.24% (232 votes)
A 3.59% (101 votes)
Total Votes: 2,815

In conjunction with the Orioles’ offseason review, we held an Orioles-focused chat on March 7. You can click here to read the transcript.

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