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Jason Castro Tests Positive For COVID-19; Garrett Stubbs Added To World Series Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster substitution for the Houston Astros, with Jason Castro being removed from the World Series roster due to COVID-19 protocols. Fellow catcher Garrett Stubbs will take his place. Astros’ general manager James Click didn’t answer a question about whether Castro tested positive, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. However, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports that Castro has indeed tested positive.

This news comes with just over an hour to go before Houston is set to take on Atlanta in the fourth game of the series. This shouldn’t affect tonight’s lineup as Martin Maldonado was penciled into the catcher’s slot when that was announced earlier today.

When Jorge Soler tested positive during the NLDS, he had to quarantine for at least five days and couldn’t return until cleared as non-infectious by a four-person joint health and safety committee, consisting of two doctors, and one representative each from the league and the players’ union. Assuming the same protocols are in place now, that means Castro’s season is done. The seventh game of the series is scheduled for November 3rd, which is just four days away.

Maldonado has seen the bulk of the playing time behind the plate this season, garnering 41 plate appearances so far to Castro’s nine. But Castro has made those nine appearances count, as he had a single, a homer and two walks. As for Stubbs, he only made 38 plate appearances at the big league level this year. But in Triple-A, he got 146 appearances and hit .265/.418/.363.

Zack Greinke, Dylan Lee To Start Game 4 Of The World Series

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Both starting pitchers have now been announced for tonight’s Game 4 of the World Series, as the Braves have revealed that rookie left-hander Dylan Lee will get the ball to begin what is expected to be a bullpen game against the Astros.  For Houston, manager Dusty Baker confirmed last night that Zack Greinke will start, with Greinke also likely in line for an abbreviated outing.

While both pitchers can probably be more accurately described as openers rather than true starters for tonight’s game, the Lee/Greinke matchup represents quite a contrast in experience.  Greinke has 18 MLB seasons, 3110 regular-season innings, and 21 postseason appearances on his resume.  On the other side of the equation, the 27-year-old Lee didn’t make his Major League debut until October 1, and he has thus far pitched a total of two regular-season innings and 2 2/3 postseason innings in his brief career in The Show.

Lee was included on Atlanta’s NLDS roster but didn’t see any action, and he wasn’t initially on the NLCS roster until Huascar Ynoa had to be replaced due to injury.  Lee pitched two frames of relief in the Braves’ 11-2 loss to the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS, and he then pitched two-thirds of an inning against the Astros in Game 2 of the World Series.

Originally a tenth-round pick for the Marlins in the 2016 draft, Lee posted some solid numbers in his first four pro season, but Miami released him during Spring Training this year.  The Braves inked Lee to a minor league deal, and he responded with some big numbers (1.54 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, and a tiny 3.4% walk rate) over 46 2/3 Triple-A innings.

Now, Lee finds himself on the hill in the Fall Classic, becoming the first pitcher to ever make his first Major League start in a Series game (as per the Elias Sports Bureau).  Lee will face a probable top three of Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Alex Bregman, assuming the Astros stick with the same lineup they’ve deployed throughout the World Series.

Between injuries, two weeks on the COVID-related injured list, and a general lack of effectiveness late in the season, Greinke has been limited to two appearances during the playoffs.  He tossed an inning of relief in Houston’s 12-6 loss to the White Sox in the ALDS, and then got the start against the Red Sox in Game 4 of the ALCS.  Though the Astros won that game by a 9-2 margin, Greinke only faced nine batters over 1 1/3 innings, walking three batters and allowing a two-run homer to Xander Bogaerts.

These recent results notwithstanding, “if anybody knows how to pitch in a big game, it’s Greinke,” Baker told reporters yesterday.  “We don’t know how long he’s going to go. Just give us as much quality as you can, and then we’ll turn it over to somebody else.”  Cristian Javier is probably the likeliest candidate to toss bulk innings tonight, as the righty has worked beyond one innings in each of his four postseason outings this year, including 1 1/3 innings against Atlanta in Game 2.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees reached the playoffs but had another unsatisfying postseason, losing to the arch-rival Red Sox in the AL wild card game.  Some new faces will inevitably join the roster, but the possibility exists for a larger overhaul as the Yankees reload for a deeper run into October.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $252MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out after 2024 season, or Yankees can overwrite opt-out by adding a $36MM salary for 2029)
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $189MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028 — Marlins will cover $10MM of Stanton’s contract each season from 2026-28)
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $75MM through 2026
  • Aaron Hicks, OF: $41MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Aroldis Chapman, RP: $16MM through 2022
  • Rougned Odor, 2B/3B: $15MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2023 — Rangers covering all of Odor’s salary minus the MLB minimum for 2022)
  • Zack Britton, RP: $14MM through 2022
  • Luis Severino, SP: $13.75MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Brett Gardner, OF:  $2.3MM player option — Yankees have a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout) if Gardner declines his player option
  • Joely Rodriguez, RP: $3MM club option for 2022 ($500K buyout, paid by Rangers if Yankees decline the option)
  • Darren O’Day, RP: $1.4MM player option for 2022 ($700K buyout — Yankees have a $3.15MM club option if O’Day declines his player option)

Free Agents

“At times it looked unstoppable, but many other times unwatchable” is how GM Brian Cashman summed up his team, which won 92 games in baseball’s toughest division and yet still seemed like underachievers in the eyes of many Bronx fans.  The Yankees rarely seemed fully locked in for much of the season, but there was still enough talent on the roster to tread water through the hard times until the team could again get on a hot streak.

The high talent ceiling also came with a pretty low floor, however, which stood out in a division where the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays seemed to squeeze more out of all 26 roster spots.  Injuries played a part in the Yankees’ lack of depth, though that depth shortage was also something of a self-created problem, as New York made every roster move with an eye towards staying under the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

Exceeding the threshold for a third straight season would’ve put the Yankees in line for the maximum repeater penalty (a 50% tax on every dollar spent over $210MM), and that was a price that the team was simply not willing to pay.  With this in mind, the Yankees still did well to acquire the likes of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo in midseason trades while staying under the CBT threshold, yet the idea of the big-budget Yankees operating under self-imposed spending restrictions didn’t sit well in the Big Apple.

The Yankees also dipped under the tax line in 2018 in order to reset their penalty status, and then were back to their usual higher-spending selves in both 2019 and 2020.  On paper, this could mean the Bronx Bombers will be ready and willing to throw some cash around this winter, particularly since the CBT rules could be changed altogether depending on how baseball’s next collective bargaining agreement shakes out.

That said, between the guaranteed contracts on the books and the team’s large arbitration class, the Yankees are already in luxury tax territory before the offseason even officially begins — Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Roster Resource estimate the Yankees’ current 2022 CBT number as roughly in the range of $221.1MM to $223.7MM.  If ownership and the front office don’t overly care about blowing past the tax line once, this might not be an issue (and again, we don’t know what the tax threshold will be in 2022, or if the CBT will continue to exist in its current form). But, given how the Yankees have been operating with some level of financial restraint in the Hal Steinbrennner era, a full-on acquisition frenzy may not be all that likely.

This isn’t to say the Yankees couldn’t carve out some room by trading or even non-tendering some of those arbitration-eligible players.  Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier seem more like spare parts than future cornerstones at this point, and Luke Voit’s stock has dropped after an injury-plagued 2021 season.  Or, if not the arb-eligibles, could someone like Luis Severino be dealt to a team in need of pitching, if the Yankees are ready to move on after three years of injury woes for the right-hander?  Packaging one or two of these players together into one trade would be a creative way to address another roster need, repurpose some salary, or perhaps just clear some payroll space for a bigger signing down the road.

If getting rid of such players doesn’t sound feasible, Cashman has already indicated that he wants a more athletic, defensively-capable roster next year, with hitters less prone to strikeouts.  This doesn’t bode well for the likes of Voit, and if another starting infielder is acquired and Gio Urshela assumes a super-sub infield role, having both Rougned Odor and Tyler Wade as light-hitting backup infielders suddenly becomes redundant.

Figuring out which incumbents will remain on the roster is tricky since quite a few regulars struggled in 2022, yet it can be assumed that Urshela, Gleyber Torres, and DJ LeMahieu aren’t going anywhere.  This trio is currently penciled in for starting infield roles (with Voit getting some time at first base or DH), leaving a big hole at shortstop that Cashman has already identified as a need.

The 2021-22 free agent market is loaded with premium shortstops.  Any of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, or Trevor Story would cost a hefty sum, yet any would also provide a marked improvement over Torres’ shaky shortstop defense and his average offensive output over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are hoping that moving Torres back to second base will help him rebound from a pair of subpar years, and since Torres is only entering his age-25 season, it is too early for the Yankees to give up on a player who has shown such potential in the past.

Getting a new veteran mentor as a double-play partner would also surely help Torres’ development, and give the Yankees some stability in the middle infield — if Torres struggles again in 2022, he might become an expendable part in a year’s time.  The presence of top shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza must also be considered, whether as candidates to move to other positions, or as shortstops of the future that the Yankees wouldn’t want to block by adding a star veteran on a long-term contract.

With this in mind, it’s possible the Yankees would choose to spend their money on other areas and instead only acquire a shorter-term option to play shortstop.  Trading for a player like Paul DeJong or old friend Didi Gregorius, for example, would provide New York some flexibility for the future, even if such a move would seem like a stopgap measure for a team trying to win immediately.  The Yankees could try to have it both ways, and sign one of the big shortstops this winter and then explore a possible position change (i.e. Seager to third base or Semien to second base) should Volpe and/or Peraza force the issue in a couple of seasons.

New York also might not stop at just one new infielder.  LeMahieu and Urshela are versatile enough that the Yankees could explore adding help at first or third base.  For the hot corner, that might mean looking into a Matt Chapman trade, or maybe the team could try to sign both Corey and Kyle Seager for an all-in-the-family left side of the infield.  At first base, Rizzo provided unspectacular but decent production after being acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline, and as a left-handed hitter with lots of contact skills, he fits multiple needs for the Yankees.  Rizzo’s old Chicago teammate Kris Bryant might be an even more ideal fit as a player who could be moved around the diamond, yet Bryant’s asking price could be over $200MM, and possibly beyond the Yankees’ comfort zone if they’re also splurging on a shortstop.  Even Rizzo might be pricier than the Yankees are willing to spend on the first base position, especially since Voit is still on hand.

The outfield seems pretty set, with Gallo and Aaron Judge flanking returning center fielder Aaron Hicks, while Giancarlo Stanton will probably mostly serve as the DH but also get some time in the corners.  The Yankees aren’t likely to exercise their $7.15MM club option on Brett Gardner, but if Gardner either picks up his own player option or another deal is worked out between the two sides, it’s probably safe to just assume the longtime regular will return for yet another season in the Bronx.  Andujar, Frazier, and Estevan Florial also factor into the depth picture depending on how many return in 2022.

As with the infield, though, there are some questions within these ostensibly settled positions.  Hicks has been bothered by injuries throughout his career, and wrist surgery limited him to a career-low 32 games last season.  Gallo’s Yankees tenure didn’t get off to a great start, as he struck out a whopping 88 times in 228 plate appearances while batting only .160/.303/.404 with 13 home runs.  Gallo is another arbitration-eligible player the Yankees could potentially look to deal, though his value is lower now than it was when New York got him from the Rangers at the trade deadline, and Gallo’s ability to play center field provides useful versatility if Hicks is injured again.

There weren’t many concerns about Judge in 2021, which was a boon after the slugger played in only 242 of a possible 384 games in 2018-20 due to injuries.  Judge has always been a dangerous bat when healthy, and with 633 PA to work with last year, he hit 39 home runs to go along with a .287/.373/.544 slash line.  Judge is entering his final arbitration year, and while the Yankees have a pretty solid policy against contract extensions, one would expect they’d at least have some talks with Judge in Spring Training about signing a long-term deal.

Catcher is perhaps the biggest conundrum position the Yankees face, as there are equal cases to be made for retaining or parting ways with Gary Sanchez.  After a rough 2020 season, Sanchez rebounded to post roughly league-average offense last year, which is solid from the catcher’s position.  However, Sanchez also had another high strikeout rate, and his longstanding defensive issues behind the plate again saw him lose playing time to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch.

After four seasons of drama and rumors about Sanchez’s status, the Yankees might be open to moving on, as Cashman didn’t even confirm that Sanchez would be the starting catcher in 2022.  The catching position is thin enough that Sanchez wouldn’t be non-tendered, yet by that same logic, the lack of obvious available upgrades could mean the Bombers might just hang onto Sanchez for his final year of team control.  If Sanchez were dealt, a one-year stopgap signing of a familiar face like Austin Romine or Robinson Chirinos could team with Higashioka until the Yankees figure out a longer-term answer.

With so many hitters underwhelming in 2021, the irony is that the Yankees ended up being carried by their pitching last year, even though there was plenty of uncertainty about their mix of arms heading into Opening Day.  While many of those pitchers will be returning, the Yankees now face the challenge of seeing if they can duplicate or better that performance, and some reinforcements may be required.

Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery have rotation spots locked up, with Severino, Domingo German, and Nestor Cortes Jr. penciled into the other three spots.  Severino’s health is always a question, German pitched only 98 1/3 innings due to shoulder problems, and while Cortes’ emergence was a fun storyline, his lack of a track record leaves some doubt about whether he can be as effective in 2022.  Jameson Taillon will start at some point, though his recovery from ankle surgery will keep him sidelined until roughly the end of March, so he’ll need time to ramp up after missing virtually all of Spring Training.

This group could be augmented by younger arms, as Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Deivi Garcia all made starts last season and will likely be competing with Cortes and maybe even German for rotation spots come Spring Training.  There is promise but not much experience on hand, so obtaining one more solid veteran pitcher would help the Yankees breathe a little easier.  A reunion with Corey Kluber might be the simplest option, though Kluber had another lengthy injured-list absence in 2021 and can’t be relied upon as a stable eater of innings.

Plenty of interesting candidates exist on the free agent pitching market, and any number of these hurlers would have interest in joining a perpetual contender like the Yankees.  Again, the club’s overall spending plans will determine what types of pitchers will be on the radar.  If New York goes big to land a star position player or two, a mid-tier rotation arm might be the preference.  Or, if the Yankees went for shorter-term options around the diamond, they could invest at the top of the pitching market, perhaps signing Robbie Ray away from the Blue Jays or bringing Marcus Stroman from Queens to the Bronx.

For a less-obvious but still familiar option, a reunion with Masahiro Tanaka also can’t be ruled out.  After signing with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles last winter, Tanaka hinted at a potential return to both MLB and to the Yankees specifically, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see Tanaka back in the pinstripes now that the Yankees have more flexibility under the luxury tax threshold.

If signing a new starter results in a surplus of rotation candidates, that’s a pretty nice problem to have, as New York could then use those extra arms to bolster the bullpen.  The Yankees got good production from most members of the relief corps last season, but heading into 2022, the team’s two highest-paid relievers are issues.  Zack Britton will miss most or even all of next season after undergoing elbow surgery, while Aroldis Chapman wasn’t his usual dominant self in 2021.  Chapman struggled to contain home runs for the second consecutive year, and he had one of the worst walk rates (15.6%) of any pitcher in baseball.

Chapman’s struggles don’t necessarily auger a change in the closer role, as his numbers were still pretty good overall.  However, the Yankees might give a right-hander like Chad Green or Jonathan Loaisiga more looks in save situations against right-handed batters, or if a new reliever is acquired on a low-cost deal, it could be someone with past closing experience.  On the contract option front, New York is likely to exercise its club option on Joely Rodriguez, while Darren O’Day will probably exercise his player option in the wake of an injury-shortened season.

Finally, the Yankees already took care of some major offseason business when they signed Aaron Boone to a new three-year contract (with a club option for 2025).  While Boone’s old deal was up after this season, it never seemed like there was too much chance of a managerial change, as Cashman and Steinbrenner both expressed their support for Boone at multiple points during the year.

Boone has yet to lead the Yankees to a pennant in his four years as manager, and the team’s 2009 World Series title remains its only trip to the Fall Classic in the last 18 seasons.  This (relative) lack of postseason success has led to a lot of impatience within the fanbase, especially since the Yankees were perceived as being more concerned about avoiding a luxury tax bill than making a full-fledged push to win.

On the other hand, the acquisitions of Rizzo, Gallo, and an under-the-radar steal of a pickup in Clay Holmes showed that Cashman could still make quality additions within a budget, and big spending doesn’t necessarily always equal playoff success.  Cashman is on record as acknowledging the faults of his 2021 team and said “we will be open-minded to everything and anything on this roster” in terms of correcting these shortcomings.  Whether this manifests itself in the form of some more creative trades, mid-tier signings, or a good old-fashioned Yankees spending spree remains to be seen, but the 2021-22 offseason could be a busy one in the Bronx.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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Even after the Royals’ work to put together a contending club in 2021 didn’t pan out, expect newly promoted president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Picollo to take another shot at adding some win-now pieces to complement a promising young core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C: $82MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF: $21.75MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2025)
  • Mike Minor, LHP: $11MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $10.5MM through 2022
  • Michael A. Taylor, OF: $9MM through 2023
  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $4MM through 2022 (includes $750K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2023*)
  • Total 2022 commitments: $50.5MM
  • Total of all long-term commitments: $138.25MM

*The value of Merrifield’s 2023 option will increase to $10.5MM if he spends fewer than 109 days on the IL from 2019-22. He has not been on the injured list in that time (or at all in his MLB career).

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Royals got a head-start on some offseason business in September. General manager Dayton Moore was promoted to president of baseball operations, while longtime assistant GM J.J. Piccolo was elevated to the title of general manager. The pair of title bumps helped the Royals to ensure that both well-regarded execs will remain with the club and avoid being considered for lateral moves (that would previously have represented promotions) with other organizations. Meanwhile, the team kept center fielder Michael A. Taylor from reaching the free-agent market by hammering out a two-year, $9MM extension.

Taylor, 31 in March, turned in a dismal .244/.297/.356 batting line (77 wRC+) but played center field at such a ridiculously high level that it really didn’t matter. The Royals loved the glove enough to give Taylor 528 plate appearances, and he rewarded them with 19 Defensive Runs Saved, a 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating and 15 Outs Above Average — a mark that trailed only Tampa Bay’s Manuel Margot among all MLB outfielders.

The extension for Taylor preemptively answered the Royals’ center field question, and he’ll now return alongside left fielder Andrew Benintendi, who’s due one final arbitration raise. Benintendi no longer looks like the budding star we saw with the 2018 Red Sox, but he’s settled in as a slightly above-average bat and will give Kansas City a solid option for at least the 2022 season (if the team doesn’t look to further extend him this spring). Taylor and Benintendi can hold down two of three outfield spots, but the third is where the path moving forward becomes murkier.

Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier are both under contract for multiple seasons — Merrifield through at least 2022 with a 2023 club option, and Dozier through at least 2024 with a 2025 option. The former has been one of the game’s great bargains and a perennially unheralded star (at least relative to the acclaim he receives). The latter scuffled through a dismal 2021 showing that has made last March’s $25MM contract extension look regrettable.

Twenty-four-year-old Kyle Isbel also forced his way into the outfield conversation this year with a solid Triple-A showing (.269/.357/.444, 116 wRC+) and a torrid hot streak following a mid-September call to the Majors. In 47 plate appearances down the stretch, Isbel hit .286/.362/.524.

Isbel is purely an outfielder, but both Merrifield and Dozier can and have played in the outfield and infield extensively. Looking around the infield dirt, however, the picture is quite crowded. Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr.  should seize the shortstop position before too long, and the Royals have already moved Adalberto Mondesi to third base in part to prepare for a potential position change. Nicky Lopez was a Gold Glove candidate at shortstop this year (another reason Mondesi moved to the hot corner) and has likely cemented his spot in next year’s infield mix — even if it means a move to second base.

Kansas City could split first base and designated hitter duties between Dozier and veteran Carlos Santana, with Merrifield taking the bulk of his reps in right field and Isbel getting more work in Triple-A. That might be a palatable option were it not for the looming arrival of another top prospect: first baseman Nick Pratto. The former first-round pick went from potential afterthought to potential building block with a ludicrous minor league season that saw him post a .265/.385/.602 batting line with 36 long balls between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s all but ready for an MLB look himself, and that’s where things get tougher.

First and foremost: Moore has made clear in the past that he has little interest in trading Merrifield. Although Merrifield has long been a player for whom rival fans (and surely rival clubs) have pined in trade scenarios, Kansas City extended him mid-rebuild and has never shown an inclination to move him. Now that Moore & Co. have shifted to a win-now mindset, Merrifield isn’t likely to suddenly be available — even with his club control dwindling.

That said, neither Dozier nor Santana is teeming with trade value. Dozier hit just .216/.285/.394 in 2021 and posted poor defensive marks at multiple positions. Santana was terrific through the season’s first two months before flopping with a .198/.287/.296 slash from June 1 through season’s end. The Royals could explore swapping out either for another sub-optimal contract, but it’s also possible that Dozier simply moves to a bench role and Kansas City hopes for a rebound from one or both. Dozier, after all, has played all four corner spots and finished the season on a big high note, hitting .272/.346/.576 from Sept. 1 onward.

The only other spot on the diamond yet to be addressed in this writing barely even needs mention. Salvador Perez’s 2021 campaign was one of the best by any catcher in Major League history, and he’ll return as the team’s linchpin behind the plate. Perhaps the Royals will explore the market for a veteran backup, as neither Cam Gallagher nor Sebastian Rivero inspires much confidence in the event of an untimely injury to Perez. Then again, both are passable backups — especially considering Perez’s ironman workload — and the Royals likely have a superior safety net waiting in the wings, should Perez require a prolonged stay on the injured list.

For all the attention (rightfully) placed on huge seasons for Witt and Pratto in Double-A and Triple-A, the Royals had a third overwhelming performance from a minor league hitter. Catching prospect MJ Melendez was not only in the Double-A and Triple-A lineups with Witt and Pratto the whole way — he actually outproduced both at the plate. In 531 plate appearances between those two levels, Melendez mashed at a combined .288/.386/.625 pace with 41 home runs. Selected just 38 picks after Pratto in 2017, Melendez joined in his draft-mate in flipping the narrative on that ’17 draft class in convincing fashion.

Unlike Pratto and Witt, however, Melendez doesn’t have a clear path to everyday at-bats moving forward. He could certainly operate as a designated hitter and part-time catcher, gradually increasing his workload behind the dish as Perez’s own workload decreases with age. That opportunity might not present itself until 2023, barring a deal to unload Santana, but it’s certainly one to which the Royals have to be open.

Alternatively, it’s inevitable that catching-needy clubs around the game will see a blocked catching prospect who just put the finishing touches on a mammoth minor league season and try to pry him loose. The Marlins, Astros, Rangers and perhaps the Yankees are all teams in need of long-term solutions behind the dish. This isn’t a situation where the Royals would use Melendez in order to shed a contract such as Santana, to be clear, but Kansas City will field plenty of interest in Melendez this winter. Miami, in particular, is teeming with young pitching it could offer the Royals.

Of course, the Royals have their own collection of impressive young arms on which they’ll rely moving forward. The 2021 Royals were the first team in Major League history to have five pitchers from the same draft class start a game for the team that drafted them (via Royals director of communications Nick Kappel, on Twitter). Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic were Kansas City’s top four picks in 2018, and 18th-rounder Jon Heasley made his own MLB debut late in the season. Add breakout righty Carlos Hernandez, veteran Mike Minor, stalwart Brad Keller and righty Jakob Junis to the mix, and the Royals have some obvious depth before even making any additions.

That depth is nice, but it didn’t yield results for the Royals in 2021. Kansas City starters ranked 24th in the Majors with a 4.97 ERA. As was the case with Santana, Minor’s two-year deal failed to pay dividends. He soaked up a team-high 158 2/3 innings but did so with a 5.05 ERA. Fielding-independent metrics were more forgiving, but one has to imagine that the Royals would be open to finding a way to move Minor and the $11MM he’s still guaranteed ($10MM salary in 2022; $1MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023).

Looking to the homegrown arms, all four of Singer, Lynch, Kowar and Bubic previously ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. Singer showed promise during his 2020 debut but took a step back in 2021 (128 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA). Each of Bubic, Lynch and Kowar walked 10% or more of the hitters they faced and did so with below-average strikeout rates. Not every top-ranked pitching prospect dominates from day one — the vast majority do not, in fact — but it’s fair to say the Royals were probably hoping for better results from at least some of this group through this stage in their young careers.

Be that as it may, the Royals can still count themselves eight deep (if not more) in viable rotation options. They’ll be looking for some to take a step forward, but the fate of next year’s staff is largely dependent on the continued development of the young pitchers. There’s certainly room to add a veteran on a low-cost deal, but the hope will be that some combination of Singer, Bubic, Lynch, Kowar and Hernandez seizes at least a couple of long-term spots.

To recap: the Royals have three near-MLB top-100 prospects, with only one (Melendez) truly being blocked by a veteran. They have more infielders than infield spots available (in part due to underperformers Dozier and Santana), and they have more outfielders than outfield spots available. They’re also teeming with young starters who carry plenty of potential but have yet to piece things together.

It’s not hard to see why the front office is so bullish on the long-term outlook. However, the Royals need a lot of positive strides, from a development standpoint, for this group to be deemed a contender. They could opt for a quiet winter with regard to the lineup and the rotation, relying solely on internal development — or they could do what they did nearly a decade ago and condense some of this talent into more proven stars. It’s been almost nine years since the Royals acquired James Shields and Wade Davis in a trade that sent then-top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa Bay, but the current Kansas City roster is in a somewhat comparable spot.

There’s virtually no scenario in which the Royals move Witt, and Pratto seems quite unlikely to be dealt himself. But with Melendez being blocked, a smorgasbord of young rotation hopefuls and perhaps players like Isbel or Mondesi lacking straightforward paths to playing time, there are multiple avenues for Moore, Picollo and the rest of the front office to explore.

In surprisingly candid fashion this summer, Moore indicated that the team simply can’t count on the wildly talented but oft-injured Mondesi as an everyday player, though he also emphasized the organization had no plans to give up on him. Still, with several other infield options and Mondesi now just two years from free agency, it stands to reason that other clubs will look into acquiring him. Suffice it to say, while the Royals may not be the most active team in the free-agent market, they’ll likely still be active in talks with other clubs around the league.

The one area of the club that this outlook has yet to address, of course, is the bullpen. Dominant relief pitching was a hallmark of the Royals’ 2014-15 World Series clubs, and the foundation for a similarly strong bullpen could be in place. Controllable, power-armed righties Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont had breakout years and positioned themselves as a formidable one-two punch in 2022 and beyond. Rookie southpaw Jake Brentz had a strong debut of his own and averaged 97 mph on his heater, but he’ll need to curb his 13.3% walk rate. Domingo Tapia and Dylan Coleman showed varying levels of promise.

That said, the bullpen is the most obvious area that the Royals could look to spend in free agency. Kansas City is projected for just shy of $87MM in payroll next season (using Swartz’s arbitration projections), and that number could fall with some non-tenders looking quite likely. The Royals have just $33MM on the books in 2023. It’d still be a shock to see them play at the very top of the relief market (i.e. Raisel Iglesias), but any of the second-tier options thereafter (Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, etc.) could easily fit into the Royals’ payroll. Putting together a deep bullpen will only take pressure off the young arms in the rotation.

The 2021 season didn’t go as Moore and his staff hoped when dipping back into the free-agent market last winter, but it’s still hard to look at all of the talent on the horizon in Kansas City and not believe better days are ahead. The Royals can afford to make a splash or two in the bullpen. Their growing crop of young talent and considerable payroll space gives them ample leverage to take a bigger swing on the trade market if the opportunity presents itself.

Coaching/Scouting Notes: Stottlemyre, Kotsay, Hanrahan, Diversity Pipeline

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Marlins pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. recently signed a contract extension to return in 2022, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’ll be his fourth season in that capacity, as Stottlemyre originally joined Miami over the 2018-19 offseason. The Marlins have brought up plenty of talented young pitchers over the past couple years, with Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López and Trevor Rogers already having proven themselves as quality starting pitchers and plenty more highly-touted arms either at or nearing the major league level. Marlins starters ranked 13th this past season in ERA (4.08) and 15th in SIERA (4.27).

On a personal note, Stottlemyre tells Mish he was diagnosed with prostate cancer in Spring Training. He coached in spite of the diagnosis all year and underwent surgery to have his prostate removed earlier this month. MLBTR sends our best wishes to the well-respected Stottlemyre.

The latest on a some other administrative situations around the league:

  • For the first time in a decade, the Athletics are on the hunt for a manager. After longtime skipper Bob Melvin surprisingly signed on to become Padres’ manager last night, Oakland joins the Mets as clubs searching for a new dugout leader. A’s third base coach Mark Kotsay is expected to garner some consideration for the role, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s not at all surprising, since Kotsay has been on Melvin’s staff in various capacities for the past six seasons. The former big league outfielder has long been viewed as a potential skipper, and he’s interviewed with the Astros (for the job that went to Dusty Baker), Red Sox (which went to Ron Roenicke) and Tigers (which went to A.J. Hinch) over the past two offseasons.
  • Former MLB closer Joel Hanrahan has spent the past five seasons coaching in the Pirates’ minor league system. The 40-year-old served as the pitching coach with Triple-A Indianapolis this year, and it’s expected he’ll return in that capacity in 2022. Hanrahan tells Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic he’s hoping that work on the farm will eventually land him a big league coaching job. “The goal is to get back to the majors (as a coach),” Hanrahan said. “It’s been a fun five years of getting guys to the big leagues, and now there are a lot of guys in Pittsburgh who would be fun to work with. You’ve just kind of gotta wait your turn and see what happens.” A two-time All-Star, Hanrahan pitched in the big leagues from 2007-13.
  • Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com recently spoke with attendees and instructors of MLB’s Diversity Pipeline Scout Development Program. Introduced this year and slated to continue annually, the program’s goal is to increase racial and gender diversity in front offices and scouting departments by fostering a pipeline of talent evaluators. The inaugural event was led by former Braves’ and Pirates’ executive Tyrone Brooks, who now serves as MLB’s senior director for front office and field staff for the Diversity Pipeline Program. Featuring instructors from the A’s, Marlins, D-Backs and other teams, the program included daily classroom instruction over the course of a week, as well as Arizona Fall League and amateur scouting experience for its 29 attendees.

Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relief

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With free agency approaching, MLBTR has taken a position-by-position look at the options who’ll be available on the open market. We’ll wrap up the exercise with a look at the group of right-handed relievers.

Top of the Market

Raisel Iglesias (32): After being dealt to the Angels in what was largely a salary-dump move for the Reds, Iglesias quietly had the best season of his career in many respects. He racked up 34 saves, which matched his personal best. Over 70 innings, his ERA was 2.57. His strikeout rate was an excellent 37.7%, which was bested only by Jacob deGrom, Liam Hendriks and Paul Sewald, among pitchers with at least 60 innings. Iglesias dropped his walk rate to a personal best 4.4%, also an elite number. In short, he was one of the best relievers in the game this year. If we prorate 2020 out to a full season, Iglesias has now logged 60-plus innings with an ERA under 2.75 in five of the last six seasons, with 2019’s 4.16 ERA looking like an aberration.

Ready-Made Closers

Kenley Jansen (34): The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers on a five-year, $80MM contract. In the first year of that deal, 2017, he was as dominant as Dodgers fans had come to expect, racking up 41 saves with a miniscule 1.32 ERA, with elite strikeout and walk rates of 42.2% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 2018-2020, he slipped a bit from those incredible heights but was still very good. The ERA went above 3.00, the strikeout rate hovered around 30% and the walk rate has gradually climbed towards double digits. In 2021, he got the ERA back down to 2.22 despite his walk rate climbing to a higher than average 12.9%. He still notched 38 saves and had a great year overall, but there are concerns in the underlying numbers. That combined with his age will certainly mean he won’t match his last contract, but he should still command a lot of interest on a shorter term.

Alex Colome (33): 2021 was Colome’s sixth-straight season of tallying at least 12 saves. He had 17 on the campaign this year, over 65 innings. However, his 4.15 ERA was the highest of his career. He’s gradually become more of a ground ball pitcher over the years, sacrificing strikeouts in the process. His 53.7% grounder rate was the highest of his career, though his strikeout rate has been around 20% in 2020 and 2021, after peaking at 31.6% in 2016.

Ian Kennedy (37): It’s been an up-and-down ride for Kennedy since he moved to the bullpen three years ago. The first campaign was great, as he saved 30 games for the Royals in 2019 with an ERA of 3.41 and a 27.4% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, injuries hampered his 2020, limited him to 14 innings with an ERA of 9.00. The Rangers then signed him on a minor league deal that turned into a steal. Kennedy notched 16 saves in 31 1/3 innings with Texas, with a 2.51 ERA. The club was then able to send him to Philadelphia along with Kyle Gibson for a package of prospects. Things didn’t go as smoothly for Kennedy with the Phillies, however, as his ERA ballooned up to 4.13 over 24 innings. He did still notch 10 more saves, though, giving him a total of 26 on the year. Given his age and inconsistent track record, he won’t get a lengthy contract. But that could make him attractive to both contending clubs as well as rebuilding clubs who would hope for a solid first half and a deadline deal like the Rangers just got.

Other High-Leverage Options

Kendall Graveman (31): Graveman’s first full season as a reliever could hardly have gone much better. Between Seattle and Houston, he threw 56 innings with an ERA of 1.77, strikeout rate of 27.5% and walk rate of 9%. He logged 10 saves in Seattle before the trade and is now pitching for the Astros in the postseason.

Corey Knebel (30): As a Brewer, Knebel was dominant in 2017 and 2018 but then missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, and then struggled in limited action in 2020. After being traded to the Dodgers for 2021, Knebel seemed to get things back on a good track. Despite missing a decent chunk of the season with a lat strain, he still logged 25 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.45, 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. He also got 5 2/3 innings of work for the Dodgers in the postseason, racking up 11 strikeouts and allowing a pair of earned runs. He’s excellent when on the mound but interest will likely be tempered by question marks surrounding his health.

Ryan Tepera (34): Tepera had the best season of his career in 2021, split between both Chicago clubs. Overall, he threw 61 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.79, a personal best. His 30.8% strikeout rate was better than every previous season of his, except for the shortened 2020 campaign. His 7.9% walk rate was the lowest since his rookie year in 2015. Tepera’s deal with the Cubs last winter only came with a guarantee of $800K, a figure he’ll handily top this time around.

Hector Neris (33): Neris racked up 28 saves in 2019 with an ERA of 2.93. Since then, however, inconsistency has bumped him out of the closer’s seat. Over 2020 and 2021, he’s thrown 96 innings with a 3.84 ERA and 17 saves. His strikeout rate over those two campaigns is an excellent 30.3%, but his walk rate is higher than average at 10.9%. He likely won’t be any team’s first choice for the closer job but could be an appealing fallback option.

Daniel Hudson (35): Hudson’s season started out great, as he threw 32 2/3 innings for Washington, with an ERA of 2.20, buoyed by a strikeout rate of 37.8% and walk rate of 5.5%, both of which are excellent. But after being dealt to the Padres at the deadline, things mostly went in the wrong direction. In 19 innings for San Diego, his ERA shot up to 5.21 and his walk rate up to 10.8%. His strikeout rate, while still excellent, dropped to 32.5%.

Collin McHugh (35): McHugh was on and off the IL all season but still threw 65 excellent innings in 37 games for the Rays. He struck out 30% of the batters he faced and walked only 4.9%. His 1.55 ERA was fourth-best in MLB among pitchers with at least 60 innings, behind only Jacob deGrom, Emmanuel Clase and Ranger Suarez. McHugh missed all of 2020 due to injuries and then signed a one-year, $1.8MM deal with the Rays. After a year of health and effectiveness, he seems on course to top that this winter.

Solid Veterans

Brad Boxberger (34): Boxberger had to settle for a minor league deal last winter, which turned out to be a great pickup for the Brewers. They got 64 2/3 innings out of him in the regular season, with an ERA of 3.34, 31.2% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. He also tossed a couple of scoreless innings for them in the NLDS.

Archie Bradley (29): Bradley seemingly turned himself into a different kind of pitcher this year, getting way less strikeouts but way more grounders. In the end, it seemed to work well enough. In 51 innings for Philadelphia, his ERA was 3.71. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a big drop-off, as he was between 22 and 28% in the previous five campaigns. However, his groundball rate was 55.7%, his best since his cup of coffee in 2015.

Jesse Chavez (38): Chavez didn’t sign until late April this year, and even then, it was a minor league deal. He didn’t get selected to the big league club until June. But it turned into a bargain for Atlanta, who got 33 2/3 innings out of Chavez with an ERA of 2.14. His 8.3% walk rate is around league average, but his quality 27.1% strikeout rate was the highest of his career. He’s also added 1 2/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs so far.

Steve Cishek (36): 2020 was a bad year for Cishek, but he bounced back in 2021 and made 2020 look like a fluke. Leaving aside 2020, Cishek has ten consecutive seasons of throwing at least 44 innings with an ERA below 3.60.  In 2021, he logged 68 1/3 innings for the Angels with an ERA of 3.42.

Tyler Clippard (37): Clippard gave the Diamondbacks 25 1/3 innings in 2021 with an ERA of 3.20, but there are reasons for concern underlying that. His strikeout rate of 18.9% was his lowest mark since way back in 2008, and his 9.9% walk rate was high highest since 2017. Perhaps that’s somewhat attributable to the shoulder injury that caused him to miss the first half of the season.

Jeurys Familia (32): The Mets signed Familia to a three-year, $30MM deal prior to the 2019 season. Over the course of that deal, he logged 146 innings with an ERA of 4.62, strikeout rate of 24.1% and walk rate of 13.4%. 2021 was a bit better than the first couple years of the deal, as his ERA was 3.94 and his strikeout rate shot up to 27.5% and his walk rate dropped to 10.3%.

Luis Garcia (35): Garcia signed a minor league deal with the Yankees this past offseason, but was released in July and caught on with the Cardinals. Over the final few months, Garcia had one of his best stretches in years. In 33 1/3 innings, he had an ERA of 3.24, his lowest since 2017. His strikeout rate was above average at 25.2% and his walk rate was an excellent 5.9%.

Yimi Garcia (31): Garcia got some time as closer for the Marlins in the first half of the season, racking up 15 saves with an ERA of 3.47. Since a deadline deal to the Astros, he’s been a setup guy, logging 21 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.48. However, his strikeout and walk rates both improved after the deal, suggesting there’s bad luck contributing to that high ERA.

Mychal Givens (32): It was a tale of two seasons for Givens. His first half with the Rockies was excellent, as he pitched 29 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.73, strikeout rate of 27.4% and walk rate of 11.3%. After a deadline deal to the Reds, he logged 21 1/3 innings with an ERA of 4.22, strikeout rate of 21.7% and walk rate of 14.1%.

Chris Martin (36): It’s been a strange season for Martin as his strikeout rate plummeted but he has managed to stay effective. Over 2019 and 2020, he threw 73 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.81, strikeout rate of 30.1% and walk rate of 2.8%. In 43 1/3 innings in 2021, his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 18.2%, although his walk rate stayed low at 3.3% and his ERA only went up to 3.95.

Adam Ottavino (36): Ottavino’s best season was 2018 with the Rockies. In 77 2/3 innings, he had an ERA of 2.43, strikeout rate of 36.2% and walk rate of 11.17%. Since then, he’s still been a solid contributor but things have generally trended in the wrong direction. In 2021, he pitched 62 innings, with an ERA of 4.21, strikeout rate of 25.7% and walk rate of 12.7%.

Yusmeiro Petit (37): Petit logged 78 innings in 2021 with an ERA of 3.92. However, his strikeout rate dropped to 11.8%, the lowest of his career except for a cup of coffee in 2012. But his walk rate stayed exceptionally low at 3.8%. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and has consistently seen his real results outperform the advanced metrics.

Hansel Robles (31): It’s been a mercurial few seasons for Robles. 2019 was excellent, as he notched 23 saves for the Angels, throwing 72 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.48. In 2020, his ERA blasted up to 10.26, leading to his non-tender by the Halos. He was picked up by the Twins and threw 44 innings with an ERA of 4.91 and strikeout rate of 22.9%, recording 10 saves and getting traded to the Red Sox. For Boston, he threw another 25 innings with an ERA of 3.60 and a much-improved strikeout rate of 30.3%.

Sergio Romo (39): Things mostly trended in the wrong direction for Romo in 2021. Over 61 2/3 innings for the Athletics, he recorded an ERA of 4.67, the highest of his career. His 23.2% strikeout rate was tied for the worst of his career, matching his rate from 2013. And his 8.1% walk rate was his highest since 2017. Signed to a one-year, $2.25MM contract last winter, he’ll probably be looking at a lower salary in 2022.

Joe Smith (38): 2021 was going terribly for Smith, as he pitched 21 2/3 innings for Houston with an ERA of 7.48. However, after getting traded to Seattle, he evened things out with 18 innings with an ERA of just 2.00. On the whole, his 4.99 ERA for the year was the worst of his career. His 19.7% strikeout rate on the year was subpar, but his 4.6% walk rate was quite good.

Joakim Soria (38): Soria was one of few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this season. He pitched 29 1/3 innings out of their bullpen with an ERA of 4.30 and was then flipped to the Blue Jays for a couple of prospects. Due to various injuries, he only got logged eight innings for the Jays down the stretch. Overall, he notched 37 1/3 innings with an ERA of 5.06, strikeout rate of 25.2% and walk rate of 7.5%.

Wildcards

Michael Lorenzen (30): Lorenzen is one of the most unique players in baseball, having the ability to hit, play the outfield, pitch as a starter or reliever. His best work has been out of the bullpen, but he’s apparently looking for a rotation job this winter. He made 21 starts in 2014 but only five since, making him fairly unproven in that regard. However, his numbers as a reliever have been solid at times. From 2016 to 2019, he logged 297 1/3 total innings with an ERA of 3.39. Injuries have limited him over the past few years, however. In 2021, his ERA was 5.59 over a 29-inning sample. If he doesn’t find the rotation job he seeks, he could make for a solid bullpen addition somewhere, as long as his health cooperates.

Jimmy Nelson (33): Nelson had a dominant season as a starter in 2017, but injuries wiped out his 2018, most of his 2019 and all of his 2020 season. 2021 looked to be a bounceback, as he pitched 29 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen with an ERA of 1.86, strikeout rate of 37.9% and walk rate of 11.2%. Unfortunately, it was announced in early August that he would require Tommy John surgery, which will wipe out most or all of his 2022. Teams have occasionally given multi-year contracts to players rehabbing from Tommy John, with Ken Giles’ deal with the Mariners being one recent example.

Trevor Rosenthal (32): The Athletics signed Rosenthal to a one-year, $11MM deal in the offseason but never got any production in return. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in April and went on the IL. In July, while trying to work his way back onto the mound, he tore a labrum in his hip and had to undergo another surgery, this one ending his season. With a lost season and two surgeries, Rosenthal will have to prove his health before getting interest in free agency. But given his past run of success from 2012 to 2017 and his bounceback campaign in 2020, he will surely garner his share of interest if he can get himself mended.

Kirby Yates (35): Yates was apparently close to signing with Atlanta for one-year, $9MM before they noticed an elbow issue and pulled the deal off the table. The Blue Jays, knowing about the elbow issue, decided to take a chance and signed him to an incentive-laden deal with a $5.5MM guarantee. The gamble didn’t pay off as Yates underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of March and never got into a game in 2021. Yates was flat out incredible in 2019, racking up 41 saves over 60 2/3 innings with an ERA of 1.19, strikeout rate of 41.6% and walk rate of 5.3%. However, injuries limited him to just 4 1/3 innings in 2020 and then wiped out his 2021. If he successfully rehabs, he could be the biggest buy-low wildcard candidate of them all.

Depth Options

Matt Andriese (32): Since moving to the bullpen full-time, Andriese has tantalized with decent strikeout and walk rates, but hasn’t had the results to match. Over the past four seasons, he’s tallied 229 2/3 innings with a 24% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate, both of which are slightly better than league average. However, his ERA in that time is 4.98. Advanced metrics think he should be better, but that seems to always be the case. His BABIP this season was .392, helping his ERA balloon up to 5.21. If some team can figure out a way get better results, he could be a buy-low success story. Last winter, he was signed by the Red Sox for a $2.1MM guarantee, was designated for assignment in August, signed with the Mariners and was designated again.

Shawn Armstrong (31): Armstrong logged 36 innings in 2021 between the Orioles and Rays, putting up an ERA of 6.75, but near-average strikeout and walk rates of 26.7% and 9.1%, respectively.

Cam Bedrosian (30): After five straight solid seasons in the Angels’ bullpen, Bedrosian took a step backward in 2021. From 2016-2020, he threw 225 innings with an ERA of 3.20, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.  In 2021, split between Cincinnati, Oakland and Philadelphia, he logged 25 innings with an ERA of 5.04, 19.8% strikeout rate and 14.7% walk rate.

Scott Blewett (25): Blewett worked five innings of one-run ball this year, but he did so with five walks and four strikeouts. The 25-year-old spent most of the season at Triple-A, struggling to keep the ball in the yard en route to a 6.39 ERA.

Brad Brach (36): Brach logged 30 innings of the Reds ’pen, but without much to show for it. His ERA was 6.30 and his walk rate was 12.9%, though his strikeout rate was still around league average at 23.7%.

Jhoulys Chacin (34): Chacin spent almost the entire season in multi-inning relief with the Rockies. His 4.34 ERA is decent for a pitcher whose home games are in Coors Field, but that came with less impressive strikeout and walk numbers.

Tyler Chatwood (32): It was a season to forget for Chatwood, as his one-year deal with the Blue Jays only kept him on the roster until the end of July. He was designated for assignment, signed with the Giants and then designated for assignment again at the end of August. Overall, he threw 32 innings on the year with an ERA of 5.63 and a bloated walk rate of 14.5%, though he still had a robust strikeout rate of 26.2%.

Kyle Crick (29): Crick had a couple nice seasons early in his career, but he’s struggled of late. He walked a massive 17.8% of opponents this year with the Pirates and was let go. Crick showed much better in a brief stint with the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate but didn’t get a big league look in Chicago.

Wade Davis (36): 2021 was a third-consecutive frustrating season for Davis. He threw 42 2/3 innings for the Royals this year, with an ERA of 6.75, along with mediocre strikeout and walk rates of 20% and 10%, respectively.

Chris Devenski (31): Devenski underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2021, making him unlikely to contribute much in 2022. He also missed most of 2020 because of elbow issues, meaning he’s only tallied 11 innings over the past two years combined. He had two excellent campaigns for the Astros in 2016 and 2017, but saw his numbers slide a bit for 2018 and 2019. He’ll likely have health questions hovering over him until he can convince teams otherwise.

Rafael Dolis (34): Dolis had a great four-year stretch in Japan and parlayed that into a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. The first year, 2020, went quite well, as Dolis had an ERA of 1.50 over 24 innings in the shortened campaign, along with a 31% strikeout rate. However, 2021 wasn’t nearly as pleasant, as his ERA shot up to 5.63 over 32 innings. His 14% walk rate in 2020, which was already high, shot up to 17.3% in 2021, though the strikeout rate was still good at 25%. Dolis cleared waivers and finished the season well in Triple-A, throwing 11 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.59, 26.4% strikeout rate and a still-high walk rate of 13.2%.

Jake Faria (28): Faria soaked up 32 2/3 innings of long relief for the D-Backs but posted only a 5.51 ERA before being outrighted off the roster.

Luke Farrell (30): Farrell tossed 24 2/3 frames for the Twins, posting a 4.74 ERA with slightly worse than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers.

Michael Feliz (29): Feliz earned his frequent flier points in 2021, spending time with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Boston and Oakland. In total, he threw 20 innings with an ERA of 7.20. However, his 24.4% strikeout rate was still around average, and he reduced his walk rate to 7.8%, after being in double digits for the previous four seasons.

Shane Greene (33): The typically-productive Greene is coming off a rough showing in 2021. He got off to a late start after lingering in free agency until May, then struggled between both the Braves and Dodgers. Over 23 2/3 frames, he managed just a 7.23 ERA with a career-high 12.4% walk rate.

Jesse Hahn (32): It was mostly a lost season for Hahn, as he threw just 3 1/2 innings before going on the IL with shoulder issues and never returned. Due to various injuries, he’s thrown just 25 1/3 big league innings over the past four years.

David Hale (34): Hale posted a 6.41 ERA in 26 2/3 innings with the Phillies. He was cut loose in June and didn’t catch on with another club for the rest of the season.

Heath Hembree (33): Hembree’s massive 34.2% strikeout rate will surely attract interest from clubs, but the fly-ball pitcher had significant issues keeping the ball in the yard with the Reds this past season. Hembree’s results were far better after a late-season waiver claim by the Mets.

David Hess (28): Hess was tagged for a 9.90 ERA in 20 innings, splitting the 2021 season between the Rays and Marlins.

Greg Holland (36): Holland had a nice bounceback campaign in 2020 but couldn’t repeat the feat in 2021. His 1.91 ERA from last year shot up to 4.85 this year. His strikeout and walk rates also both went from better than average to worse than average.

Tommy Hunter (35): Hunter signed a minor league deal with the Mets last winter and logged eight innings without allowing an earned run before heading to the injured list May 21st with a lower back issue. He went to the Rays as part of the Rich Hill deal but didn’t pitch again on the year.

Brandon Kintzler (37): The groundball specialist had a terrible year with the Phillies, throwing 29 2/3 innings with an ERA of 6.37. However, his BABIP was .369, well above his previous seasons, meaning there could be some bad luck in there. Regardless, he was released by the Phillies in early August and didn’t latch on anywhere else over the final two months of the season.

Josh Lindblom (34): Lindblom had a great run in the KBO but struggled over his two seasons in Milwaukee.

Keynan Middleton (28): Middleton threw 31 innings for the Mariners this year with an ERA of 4.94, strikeout rate of 17.1% and walk rate of 13.6%. He finishes the year with between four and five years’ service time, meaning he could come with an extra year of control for any team that signs him for 2022.

Darren O’Day (39): Due to various injuries, O’Day only pitched 10 2/3 innings this year. He’s still fairly effective when healthy but hasn’t pitched more than 20 innings since 2017.

Blake Parker (37): Signed by the Guardians to a minor league deal last winter, Parker ended up being a solid contributor for their bullpen, logging 43 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.09. However, his strikeout rate dropped to 20%, his lowest mark since 2016 and well below his 36.2% rate from last year.

David Phelps (35): Phelps got out to an excellent start this season, throwing 10 1/3 innings out of the Blue Jays’ pen. He had an ERA of 0.87, strikeout rate of 35.7% and walk rate of 9.5%. Unfortunately, he went on the IL in mid-May with a lat strain that required season-ending surgery. His recovery from that procedure will determine how much interest he gets. If he’s healthy, he could be an interesting buy-low target.

Adam Plutko (30): It was an awful campaign for Plutko in 2021, as he threw 56 1/3 innings for the Orioles with an ERA of 6.71. His strikeout rate of 17.3% and walk rate of 10.6% were both worse than league average. He was designated for assignment in August and cleared waivers.

Daniel Ponce de Leon (30): Ponce de Leon had some nice seasons as a swingman early in his career, but 2021 was a struggle. He worked 33 1/3 innings of 6.21 ERA for the Cardinals before being released in September.

Erasmo Ramirez (32): Ramirez logged 26 2/3 innings for the Tigers this year, with a 5.74 ERA and subpar 18.3% strikeout rate. However, his 4.6% walk rate was very good. He was placed on release waivers by the club in August.

Sal Romano (28): Romano bounced around the league via waivers and minor league free agency all season. Between three clubs, he tossed 25 innings of 6.12 ERA ball.

Ervin Santana (39): Santana worked 65 1/3 innings over just 38 appearances, pitching primarily as a long man for the Royals. The longtime big league starter posted a 4.68 ERA.

Bryan Shaw (34): Shaw struggled mightily with the Rockies and Mariners from 2018-20, but he recaptured some of his old bullpen workhorse form after returning to Cleveland this year. The veteran worked 77 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball. His peripherals didn’t support that caliber of run prevention, but Shaw soaked up plenty of medium-leverage innings.

Burch Smith (32): Smith pitched 43 1/3 innings out of Oakland’s bullpen, but with an ERA of 5.40. His strikeout rate, which was above 23% going into the year, plummeted to 14.9%. His walk rate was a very good 5.9%, however. He was designated for assignment and outrighted in September.

Hunter Strickland (33): Strickland had his best season in years in 2021. Between the Rays, Angels and Brewers, he threw 58 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.61, 24% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. He’s had to settle for minor league deals in recent offseasons but could do better this winter after a strong campaign.

Cesar Valdez (37): Valdez surprisingly became the Orioles closer for a time this season, with his low-velocity style not matching the typical profile for that job. However, it didn’t last, as he was bumped from that role and later designated for assignment, re-selected to the team and then later designated a second time. Overall, he logged 46 big league innings with an ERA of 5.87.

Dan Winkler (32): Winkler pitched 39 2/3 innings for the Cubs in 2021 with an ERA of 5.22. His strikeout and walk rates both were the worst of his career. He was released by the club in August.

Brandon Workman (33): Workman signed a one-year deal with the Cubs last winter but only pitched eight innings for them with an ERA of 6.75. He latched on with the Red Sox and pitched 20 innings with an ERA of 4.95 before being designated for assignment after the trade deadline and electing free agency.

Mike Wright Jr. (32): Wright worked 18 innings of 5.50 ERA this season for the White Sox. He has ample starting experience as well.

Limited Time This Season*

Kyle Barraclough (31)

Austin Brice (29)

Edgar Garcia (25)

Chi Chi Gonzalez (30)

Jake Jewell (28)

Derek Law (31)

Luis Madero (24)

Shelby Miller (31)

Anthony Swarzak (36)

Konner Wade (30)

Taylor Williams (30)

Players With Options

Craig Kimbrel, $16MM club option with $1MM buyout (34): Kimbrel was unbelievable with the Cubs in 2021. Over 36 2/3 innings, his ERA was barely visible at 0.49 and his strikeout rate was 46.7%. After being dealt to the other Chicago club, his ERA was 5.09 and the strikeout rate dropped to 36.7%. Taken as a whole, it’s still 59 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.26 and 42.6% strikeout rate. It was recently reported that the White Sox plan on picking up the option and discussing Kimbrel in trades this offseason.

Joe Kelly, $12MM club option with $4MM buyout (34): Kelly had a great year in 2021, throwing 44 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. However, he’s entering his age-34 season and has an inconsistent track record. The club might pass on this net $8MM decision and focus resources towards a rotation that could lose Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw and a lineup that could lose Corey Seager and Chris Taylor. Then again, the bullpen could be losing Kelly, Kenley Jansen, Jimmy Nelson and Corey Knebel.

Garrett Richards, $10MM club option with $1.5MM buyout (33): The Red Sox seem likely to buy Richards out. He struggled mightily as a starter through the season’s first half. A move to the bullpen initially brought much improved results, but Richards tailed off again towards the end of the year. Over 26 1/3 innings of relief, he posted a 3.42 ERA with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Richards could draw interest as either a starter or bullpen arm this winter if Boston cuts him loose.

Mark Melancon, $7MM mutual option with $1MM buyout (37): Melancon’s one-year, $3MM deal with the Padres came with a mutual option for 2022, initially valued at $5MM. There were $2MM of incentives available based on games finished, maxing out at 45. Since he finished 53 games for the Friars this year, he has increased the value of that mutual option to the $7MM maximum. He saved 39 games for the club this year, pitching 64 2/3 innings with 2.23 ERA. The Padres would surely love to have their closer back at that price, but Melancon may be able to get multiple years in free agency. Still, it will be hard to turn down a salary more than double what he made this year. Mutual options rarely get exercised by both sides, but this is one of the odd ones that could make sense for all parties.

Craig Stammen, $4MM club option with $1MM buyout (38): Stammen was a workhorse for the Padres in 2021, throwing 88 1/3 innings, tied for his highest tally since 2010. He had an ERA of 3.06, near-average strikeout rate of 23.6% and excellent walk rate of 3.7%. For a net $3MM decision, it seems reasonable enough for the club to pick up that option, even though the Padres are running franchise-high payrolls lately.

Pierce Johnson, $3MM club option with $1MM buyout (31): After a strong 2019 season in Japan, Johnson signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Padres, which has worked out well for both sides. Over the two seasons, Johnson threw 78 2/3 innings with a 3.09 ERA. The walk rate is a tad high at 11.1%, but the 32.1% strikeout rate is excellent. Given that solid performance and modest price, this option seems likely to be picked up.

Josh Tomlin, $1.25MM club option with $250K buyout (37): Tomlin pitched 49 1/3 innings for Atlanta this year, but with a bloated 6.57 ERA. He did post a career-high BABIP, suggesting that there could be some bad luck in there. But with such a modest buyout and such poor surface numbers, it seems likely the club takes that route.

Dellin Betances, $1MM player option with no buyout (34): Once one of the most-feared relievers in baseball, Betances has been hampered by injuries in recent years. 2018 was the last time he logged more than 12 innings. The Mets took a gamble on him prior to the 2020 season, signing him to a one-year deal with player options for 2021 and 2022. Betances triggered his option for 2021 but then only pitched a single inning for the Mets this year before shoulder woes put him on the shelf and led to season-ending surgery in June. His player option had various escalators, all of which he missed because of the injuries, that could have increased its value to $3MM. Instead, it will be just $1MM, which he seems likely to exercise, given his uncertain health outlook.

Keone Kela, $800K club option with no buyout (29): Kela signed a one-year, $1.2MM contract with the Padres last winter but only logged 10 2/3 innings before going on the shelf and requiring Tommy John surgery. His contract contained a clause that, in the event of such a circumstance, the Padres would get a club option for 2022. The surgery took place in May, meaning Kela will likely miss some of next season but could still return before the midway point. Given Kela’s history of solid results and that the option is just barely above league average, it seems an easy call for the Padres to pick it up.

* Between 50 and 75 batters faced in relief

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, starting pitchers, left-handed relief.

Tommy La Stella Undergoes Achilles Surgery; Recovery Expected To Take Four Months

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Giants second baseman Tommy La Stella recently underwent surgery on his left Achilles, the team informed reporters (including Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Full recovery is expected to take four months, so La Stella should be on track for Spring Training if all goes as planned.

La Stella was bothered by Achilles pain for the final few weeks of the season, but he played through the issue during the Giants’ playoff run. It was the latest in a series of health woes for La Stella, who also missed time due to a hamstring problem and a hand fracture. That combined to limit the left-handed hitter to 242 plate appearances, in which time he put up an uncharacteristic .250/.308/.405 slash line. That’s a fair bit shy of the .289/.356/.471 mark La Stella posted from 2019-20.

The Giants no doubt hope that the recent procedure will provide the 32-year-old with a clean slate as he enters 2022. La Stella will be entering the second season of a three-year, $18.75MM free agent contract. With Donovan Solano hitting free agency, he could pair with the right-handed hitting Wilmer Flores (controllable via club option) to platoon at the keystone next season.

Mets Outright Four Players

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The Mets announced that four players — corner outfielder/first baseman José Martínez, utilityman José Peraza and right-handed pitchers Robert Stock and Corey Oswalt — have all cleared outright waivers. Each of that quartet elected free agency.

2021 was a completely lost season for Martínez, who tore the meniscus in his left knee in Spring Training and missed the entire year. He set out on a minor league rehab assignment in August but apparently wasn’t healthy enough to return to the big league level, as he didn’t play in either a major or minor league game after September 10.

Martínez kicked off his big league career with a couple very productive seasons with the Cardinals. He’s never been a strong defender at either first base or in the outfield, though, and his bat ticked down to around league average from 2019-20. Now 33 years old and coming off a lost season, he might be limited to minor league offers this winter. He should be an intriguing no-risk flier for some team, though, assuming an offseason of rest enables a full recovery from his knee issue.

Peraza was a one-time top prospect, but he’s settled into a utility role over the past couple seasons. An everyday middle infielder with the Reds during the early stages of his major league career, Peraza showed plus speed and bat-to-ball skills but was held back by an aggressive approach and lack of impact power. He hit .225/.275/.342 with the Red Sox in 2020 and posted only a marginally better .204/.266/.380 line over 154 plate appearances for the Mets this past season.

The 27-year-old Peraza still runs well and saw a fair amount of action at each of second and third base in Queens. He shouldn’t have much issue finding a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation on the open market, but it never seemed likely the Mets would retain him on a projected $1MM arbitration salary.

Stock has bounced around over the past few seasons, playing for the Padres and Red Sox from 2019-20. He began the 2021 season with the Cubs but landed in New York on a waiver claim in June. Previously a full-time reliever, Stock started his three MLB outings this year but only tallied nine combined innings. He owns a 4.71 ERA in 72 2/3 big league frames going back to 2018.

Oswalt is a career-long Met, having been in the organization since they selected him in the 2012 draft. He tossed 64 2/3 innings of 5.85 ERA ball back in 2018 but hasn’t topped thirteen MLB innings in any season since then. Passed through waivers in February, Oswalt earned his way back to the majors in June but landed on the injured list with right knee inflammation after three outings. Like Martínez, Oswalt played in some rehab games in September but never returned to the big league active roster.

Royals Outright Hanser Alberto, Scott Blewett

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The Royals announced that infielder Hanser Alberto and right-hander Scott Blewett have cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. Kansas City’s 40-man roster tally now sits at 38, but they have an additional four players on the 60-day injured list who will need to be reinstated before the start of the offseason.

Alberto had been eligible for arbitration, so the Royals’ designation will function as an early non-tender. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Alberto to land a $2.1MM salary in 2022, a price the club deemed too high after a below-average showing. It’s the second consecutive winter in which Alberto has been cut loose, as the Orioles non-tendered him last offseason.

Baltimore’s regular second baseman from 2019-20, Alberto signed a minor league deal with K.C. and cracked the Opening Day roster, locking in a $1.65MM salary. He spent the year in a utility role, starting games at each of third base, second base and shortstop. Over 255 plate appearances, the 29-year-old hit .270/.291/.402 with a pair of home runs.

Alberto has been one of the game’s tougher players to strike out in recent years, helping him post consistently strong batting averages. That has come with virtually no walks or power, though, capping his overall value. By measure of wRC+, Alberto was sixteen percentage points below the league average this past season, and his 1.4% walk rate was the second-lowest mark of the 362 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He might be looking at another minors pact this winter.

Blewett was not arbitration eligible, but the Kansas City front office evidently determined they didn’t wish to devote him a 40-man roster spot all winter. Blewett was passed through outright waivers in April but re-selected to the big league club in September. He tossed five innings of one-run ball there, but he was far less effective with Triple-A Omaha.

The 25-year-old Blewett worked in a swing capacity for the Storm Chasers, tossing 69 innings in 23 appearances (including ten starts). He posted a 6.39 ERA, largely on account of the nineteen homers he served up. The Royals’ second-round pick in 2014, Blewett now hits the open market and could find himself in a different organization for the first time in his pro career.

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