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The Opener: Catchers, Market Movement, Blue Jays

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The hot stove was busy yesterday, and here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:

1. Catching market update

The top trade target and free agent are off the board on the catching market, as Sean Murphy is headed to the Braves, and Christian Vazquez is set to sign with the Twins. With the Guardians, Cubs, Rays, and Astros among the teams looking to land a catcher, what options remain? On the free agent market, Omar Narvaez is likely the top option, with Tucker Barnhart and Mike Zunino also getting attention. On the trade market, the only clear seller behind the plate is the Blue Jays, who are expected to deal a member of their catching trio (Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno) at some point. The Astros (Korey Lee) and Guardians (Bo Naylor) both have catching prospects who could see more playing time in 2023, perhaps supported by the addition of a lower cost veteran like Barnhart or Austin Hedges. The Astros are also reportedly discussing a Daulton Varsho trade with the Diamondbacks, and Varsho, though more of an outfielder at this point, could still support a catching tandem of Lee and Martin Maldonado with an occasional appearance behind the plate. Other teams could also see the limited impactful options on the market behind the plate and take advantage by dangling one of their catchers. If the Braves get an offer to their liking regarding Travis d’Arnaud, he could be flipped elsewhere while the team pivots to sign a less-expensive backup to Murphy. The Padres could offer up one of Luis Campusano or Austin Nola, while the Rangers have MLB-ready catchers in Jonah Heim, Sam Huff, and Mitch Garver.

2. What deals could be coming down the pipeline?

After a fairly busy day on the hot stove yesterday, there’s plenty more moves that could be made in the near future. As previously mentioned, the Diamondbacks and the Astros are reportedly discussing trade of Varsho, while the Blue Jays are looking to move one of their catchers. Aside from those moves, the Yankees still have plenty to do this offseason, even after re-signing Aaron Judge. They reportedly a preparing a formal offer to the top free agent pitcher left on the market, Carlos Rodon, while engaging in trade discussions with teams in order to fill the hole in left field. Reportedly, they have interest in a deal with the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds and have talked to both the Twins and Diamondbacks about trades. Moving down the east coast, the Marlins have reportedly made an offer to third baseman Justin Turner, who could provide the team with a much needed boost to their offense. Sticking with small markets, the Pirates, despite re-signing catcher Tyler Heineman on a minor league deal, could still add a starting catcher to their club in the near future. Barnhart is known to be a name that interests Pittsburgh.

3. The Blue Jays added a starter — is a bat next?

The Blue Jays yesterday signed Chris Bassitt to a three-year deal, fortifying a rotation that already contained Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. While the move improves their rotation in a significant way, they Jays are still in the market for a left-handed bat. A trade of Jansen, Kirk, or Moreno could end up playing a part in solving this part of the roster for the Jays, but they could potentially stand to add another bat to the outfield mix as well, with the DH slot relatively vacant. Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are both options who have previously been connected to Toronto, but Andrew Benintendi and Joey Gallo are also available on the free agent market, while the trade market offers options such as Reynolds and Max Kepler.

Pirates Sign Vince Velasquez

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Dec. 13: The Pirates have formally announced a one-year deal with Velasquez. Their 40-man roster is now full. Pittsburgh has yet to formally announce the signing of lefty Jarlin Garcia, who agreed to a deal on the same day as Velasquez. They’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man move for Garcia once his physical is complete and that deal is official.

Dec. 6: The Pirates and righty Vince Velasquez are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com. Velasquez will make $3.15MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Velasquez is represented by CAA Sports.

Velasquez, 31 in June, has pitched in each of the past eight MLB seasons, mostly with the Phillies but also with the Astros, Padres and White Sox. He has occasionally tantalized with some high strikeout numbers but has rarely been able to be consistently effective for extended stretches. His lowest ERA in a single season is 4.12, which came back in 2016, though he’s also been above 5.00 in three separate seasons, including one above 6.00. His career high in terms of strikeout rate is 29.9%, in the shortened 2020 campaign, but it’s also been as low as 21.6%. His walk rate has been as low as 7.8% but also as high as 11.8%.

All told, Velasquez has 726 1/3 innings in his career with a 4.93 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Those numbers vaguely resemble an effective back-end starter, which Velasquez has occasionally been, just not reliably. Last year, he signed a $3MM deal with the White Sox and began the year in the rotation but was hit hard and bumped to the bullpen before the end of May, only making two starts for the rest of the year.

It’s unclear if the Pirates plan to use him as a starter or a reliever, but he fits the mold of the low-cost rotation addition they have done in recent years. They signed Tyler Anderson to a $2.5MM deal in 2021 and traded him to the Mariners at the deadline for prospects Carter Bins and Joaquin Tejada. Going into 2022, they inked Jose Quintana to a $2MM deal and later flipped him to the Cardinals, alongside Chris Stratton, for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez. It’s possible that they have similar designs on Velasquez this year, with the veteran ideally holding down a rotation spot and pitching well enough to become a midseason target of other clubs.

The Pirates have been aggressively rebuilding in recent years, finishing last in the National League Central in each of the past four seasons, tying with the Reds in 2022. It’s unlikely they will suddenly jump into contention in 2023, but they have been looking to bolster their young roster with some veteran additions on short-term deals. They acquired Ji-Man Choi from the Rays and signed free agent Carlos Santana for their first base/designated hitter mix, then signed Jarlín García for some left-handed relief. It was reported earlier this morning that starting pitching was on the list with the club looking to potentially add a couple of arms into the rotation. If Velasquez is indeed one of them, he will join Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras, with JT Brubaker likely taking up a spot as well. There are some in-house options who could be in the mix as well, including Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, Bryse Wilson and Zach Thompson, with health and performance likely determining who gets the nod most frequently. If they find enough success in that group to bump Velasquez to the bullpen, he posted a 4.25 ERA as a reliever in 2022 compared to a 5.26 as a starter.

Braves Acquire Sean Murphy, Brewers Acquire William Contreras In Three-Team Trade

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The Braves, Brewers and A’s have agreed to a three-team blockbuster that will see each team get a new catcher with nine players involved in total. The full trade is as follows:

Braves get catcher Sean Murphy, giving up Kyle Muller, Royber Salinas, Justin Yeager, Freddy Tarnok, Manny Piña and William Contreras.

Brewers get William Contreras, Joel Payamps, Justin Yeager, giving up Esteury Ruiz.

A’s get Kyle Muller, Esteury Ruiz, Freddy Tarnok, Royber Salinas and Manny Piña, giving up Sean Murphy and Joel Payamps.

The deal is official, with the clubs all making announcements.

This move finally brings an end to a trade saga that has been going on for about a year now. After the 2021 season, the A’s leaned hard into a rebuild that saw them trade away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt before Opening Day, with Frankie Montas getting flipped at the 2022 deadline.

Murphy was widely seen as the next to go for a number of reasons. Firstly, he just crossed three years of MLB service time in 2022 and will now be making higher salaries via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that Murphy will jump to $3.5MM in 2023 with two further bumps before reaching free agency after 2025. Secondly, the A’s received a highly-touted catching prospect from Atlanta in the Olson deal in Shea Langeliers. He had an excellent season in Triple-A and carried himself well in a 40-game debut in the majors. Given all those factors, it seemed more and more likely that the A’s would hand the job over to Langeliers and trade Murphy for improvements elsewhere on the roster.

By taking this path, the A’s are parting with one of the best catchers in the game. The 28-year-old Murphy has 330 games in the big leagues under his belt thus far and has performed well in just about every facet of the game. He’s hit 46 home runs and has a combined batting line of .236/.326/.429. That production leads to a wRC+ of 116, indicating he’s been 16% above the league average hitter and even further ahead of the average catcher, since they generally come in a bit lower than others. He also took a step forward at the plate in 2022, striking out in just 20.3% of his plate appearances after being above 25% in his career prior to that.

Defensively, Murphy gets rave reviews as well. Since the start of 2020, he’s posted 13 Defensive Runs Saved behind the plate, a number that places him in the top 10 in the league. FanGraphs’ framing metric gives him a 19.5 in that timeframe, the third-highest such tally. Those all-around contributions have allowed him to produce 10 wins above replacement in those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, second among all MLB catchers with only J.T. Realmuto ahead of him.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s hardly surprising that Murphy garnered plenty of interest around the league. The Diamondbacks, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Cardinals were some of the teams connected to him at various points in recent months. It was reported about a week ago that the Braves were getting close to acquiring him but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos shot down those reports, saying that he didn’t anticipate a trade. That was either a bluff or something drastically changed in the past week since Atlanta have now indeed closed the deal. This is now the third huge deal Anthopoulos has negotiated with the A’s, though David Forst has since taken over baseball operations from Billy Beane. He acquired Josh Donaldson when he was working for the Blue Jays and has now nabbed Olson and Murphy for the Braves.

Atlanta always seemed a curious fit for Murphy given that they already had three viable catchers on the roster in Contreras, Piña and Travis d’Arnaud. They have cleared out that logjam and acquired Murphy in one fell swoop by including two of those catchers in the deal. On the surface, it seems that the club was keen to swap out Contreras for Murphy as a way of improving behind the plate. However, since the A’s seem set to give Langeliers a shot, it’s possible they were less interested in Contreras, which necessitated Milwaukee’s involvement.

That’s not to say that Contreras isn’t an exciting young catcher in his own right. It’s just that, as mentioned, Murphy is one of the best in the game. Contreras will now join his older brother Willson Contreras, who recently signed with the Cardinals, in the NL Central. The younger Contreras has gotten into 153 games in his career so far, hitting 28 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .260/.338/.471 for a wRC+ of 121. His defensive work isn’t as highly rated as his bat, but he’s still quite young, turning 25 later this month. Even with subpar defense, he’s produced 2.5 fWAR in his brief career thus far, meaning any developments in that department would make him tremendously valuable. It had been recently reported that the Brewers were interested in catching upgrades, but since the club has been paring back a tight payroll, they never seemed like candidates for a big free agent splash. Instead, they’ve acquired a young backstop who has yet to reach arbitration eligibility and has five years of club control remaining. The club has also added a couple of depth arms in Payamps and Yeager.

For the A’s, it’s been reported that they have been prioritizing MLB-ready talent in their trade talks and they have achieved that here. Muller, 25, has appeared in each of the past two major league seasons, logging 49 innings so far. He has an unimpressive 5.14 ERA in that time, but he’s fared much better in the minors. He’s made 40 Triple-A starts in the past two years and has a 3.40 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the top prospect in Atlanta’s system.

Ruiz has spent most of his career in the Padres’ system but he went to the Brewers in the Josh Hader trade last year. He has some MLB experience, having played in 17 games this year between the two clubs. In 114 minor league games, he hit .332/.447/.526 while stealing 85 bases in 114 games. BA has not yet published their list of top Milwaukee prospects for this offseason, but Ben Badler of BA tweets that Ruiz was going to be in the #8 slot.

Tarnok also has very limited MLB experience, with 2/3 of an inning on the books so far. He threw 106 2/3 innings in the minors this year with a 4.05 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. He ranked #9 on the BA list of top Atlanta prospects. Piña is a 35-year-old veteran who is likely to serve as insurance in case Langeliers struggles or needs some veteran guidance. He signed a two-year, $8MM deal with Atlanta but required season-ending wrist surgery in May. He’ll earn $4.5MM in 2023 with a $4MM club option for 2024 with no buyout.

The one prospect who isn’t likely to help the big league club immediately is Salinas. He turns 22 in April and split the most recent season between Single-A and High-A. He posted a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts with a huge 37.6% strikeout rate but a 13.5% walk rate. Baseball America recently placed him #7 on their list of Atlanta prospects.

The Braves were facing a challenge in the NL East despite having won the division in five straight seasons. The Mets and Phillies have been been spending wildly to upgrade for the coming season. The Mets have added Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, José Quintana and David Robertson, in addition to re-signing Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. The Phillies have signed Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The Braves were going to face a challenge in keeping up with that pace since they were nearing the luxury tax. As is his wont, Anthopoulos has turned to the trade market to make his upgrades. The club still has a question mark at shortstop, with Dansby Swanson having departed for free agency. They could always bring him back though they reportedly haven’t been talking much this offseason. After this trade, the club’s CBT figure is at $229MM, per Roster Resource, just shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold for next year.

For the Brewers, they’ve parted with an outfield prospect they just acquired but have added an exciting young catcher, something they would be challenged to do in free agency with their payroll constraints. For the A’s, they have parted with yet another established major leaguer, adding to the list of quality players they’ve sent out the door. In exchange, they’ve brought in one veteran backstop and four young players that they hope can be a part of forming the next competitive core in Oakland.

Talkin’ Jake of Jomboy Media first reported that the Braves, Brewers and A’s were lining up on a deal, as well as the involvement of Contreras (Twitter links). Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Murphy going to the Braves, as well as the involvement of Piña and the eventual final deal. Robert Murray of FanSided first mentioned Ruiz and Tarnok (Twitter links). Joel Sherman first mentioned Payamps and Yeager on Twitter. Kiley McDaniel first had Muller’s name on Twitter.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres, Anderson Espinoza Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement with right-hander Anderson Espinoza on a minor league contract, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Friars have also agreed to non-roster pacts with outfielder Preston Tucker and reliever Drew Carlton, Sanders reports (Twitter link).

Espinoza returns to an organization where he spent a half-decade. Acquired from the Red Sox in the 2016 deadline deal that sent Drew Pomeranz to Boston, Espionza was regarded as a possible top-of-the-rotation starter at the time. Baseball America named him the #1 prospect in the San Diego system the following winter. Unfortunately, a series of injuries prevented the 6’0″ hurler from getting a chance to make good on that immense promise. Espinoza felt some elbow soreness at the start of the 2017 season, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. After two years of rehab, he suffered another elbow injury that required a second TJ procedure.

The successive surgeries cost him a staggering four years of game action, as he didn’t throw a single professional pitch from 2017-20. Midway through the ’21 campaign, San Diego dealt him to the Cubs for Jake Marisnick. Espinoza closed out the 2021 season in Double-A, but he briefly got to the majors for the first time this year.

Through seven relief appearances, he worked his first 18 1/3 MLB innings. He allowed 11 runs on 14 hits and a staggering 16 walks, and his work in the minors wasn’t much better. Between Chicago’s top two affiliates, Espinoza pitched to a 7.55 ERA in 70 1/3 frames. He fanned a decent 24.6% of opponents but walked a massive 13.9% of minor league batters faced. At year’s end, the Cubs placed him on waivers. He went unclaimed and qualified for minor league free agency.

Espinoza is certainly no longer regarded as an elite young talent, but there’s no harm for the Padres in rolling the dice to see if he can better hone his strike-throwing as he moves another year removed from the devastating series of injuries. He’s yet to turn 25 despite having been a well-known prospect for nearly a decade. The Venezuela native averaged just under 94 MPH on his fastball during his MLB work with the Cubs, relying on a low-80s breaking ball as his top secondary pitch.

Tucker, the older brother of Astros star Kyle Tucker, is a former Astros outfielder himself. He hit .222/.281/.403 in 221 MLB games with Houston, Atlanta and Cincinnati from 2015-18. After three seasons in South Korea, Tucker returned to the U.S. on a minor league deal with the Braves in May. The 32-year-old had a decent showing with their top affiliate in Gwinnett, hitting .267/.347/.426 in 75 games.

Carlton, 27, has made nine relief appearances with the Tigers over the past two seasons. The right-hander has allowed six runs in 12 1/3 career innings, striking out eight with four walks. The Florida State product doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting in the low 90s with his fastball. He’s shown excellent control throughout his minor league tenure, though, and he punched out an above-average 27.3% of opponents through 58 1/3 innings with Detroit’s top affiliate in Toledo this year. Owner of a 3.90 ERA in 110 2/3 innings at the top minor league level, he’ll presumably battle for a bullpen spot in Spring Training.

Astros, Diamondbacks Have Reportedly Discussed Daulton Varsho Trade

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The Astros and Diamondbacks have had recent trade discussions regarding Arizona outfielder Daulton Varsho, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). There’s no indication the sides are anywhere close on a deal at the moment, with Nightengale unsurprisingly adding the Snakes’ asking price is high.

Varsho has been the subject of frequent trade chatter this offseason alongside outfield mates Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy. Arizona has shown a willingness to listen to offers on their glut of talented young, left-handed hitting outfielders — other than Corbin Carroll, who appears off the table. The D-Backs aren’t planning to move anyone of that group for prospects, but they’re eyeing ways to balance their roster by dealing from an area of strength. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle each wrote last week the Astros were exploring trade possibilities in the D-Backs outfield, and Nightengale’s report suggests Varsho is a player they’re targeting.

The 26-year-old Varsho has the most trade appeal of any of the players the Diamondbacks could ostensibly deal. A catching prospect coming out of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, he’s seen increasing work in the outfield in pro ball. That has suited him exceptionally well, as Varsho is a better athlete than one might expect for a player with his catching background. He has quickly developed into one of the sport’s top defensive outfielders, posting elite marks that earned him some consideration in this year’s NL Gold Glove voting in right field.

Varsho logged 920 1/3 innings in the outfield this past season, splitting his time between right (541 2/3) and center (378 2/3). He drew resoundingly strong marks from public metrics at both spots. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as 19 runs above average, while Statcast estimated he was 16 runs above par. The latter mark tied San Diego’s Trent Grisham for most in the majors among outfielders. Varsho’s an above-average runner who got excellent marks from Statcast for his reads and first step off the bat, belying his lack of experience in the outfield.

The Diamondbacks also gave him 175 innings behind the plate, but his days as a catcher in Arizona seem to be in the rearview mirror. Varsho’s last start there came on June 9, with organization apparently deciding he was too gifted an outfielder to continue putting him behind the dish. He’s at least capable of moonlighting back there if needed, but his defensive ability as a catcher has long been questioned by scouts and advanced metrics alike. Any team trading for Varsho at this point would do so primarily to play him in the outfield.

Varsho has a more mixed offensive track record, but he’s coming off his best season to date. Through 592 plate appearances, he hit .235/.302/.443 and slugged 27 home runs. His batted ball metrics weren’t quite so impressive, as he ranked right around league average in both average exit velocity and hard contact rate. Varsho also has rather extreme platoon splits over the course of his career, with virtually all his damage done against right-handed pitching. He carries a .234/.276/.339 line in 255 plate appearances against lefties compared to a .233/.315/.465 mark in 767 looks against right-handers.

Those mid-tier hard contact numbers and marked platoon splits might give other teams pause about Varsho’s ability to consistently sustain above-average offensive production. Still, there’s room for him to remain a quality even if his performance takes a slight step back from this year’s marks. He’s a solid hitter against right-handed pitching whose stellar glove means he doesn’t solely need to work with favorable platoon matchups. Varsho also rates well as a baserunner and has gone 25 of 32 in his career on stolen base attempts.

With two years and 128 days of MLB service, Varsho qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.8MM salary, and he’ll remain under club control through the end of the 2026 campaign. With four affordable seasons of control and a well-rounded profile, the D-Backs can justifiably ask for a major return.

Houston already has Kyle Tucker locked into right field, but they’re facing some questions at the other two spots. Chas McCormick is a solid option to play center, although the Astros have given some consideration to taking a swing at a star trade acquisition at the position. Left field is a complete question mark with Michael Brantley hitting free agency. The Astros are known to want a left-handed hitting outfielder, and they’ve been tied to free agent possibilities like Brantley, Michael Conforto and Andrew Benintendi. It’s little surprise they’d check in on Varsho as well, particularly since he could also cover center field on days when Houston wants to pencil Yordan Alvarez into left.

It’s unclear what the Diamondbacks would want back from Houston to push a Varsho deal over the line. Given Arizona’s need for starting pitching behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, however, it’s easy to draw a speculative line to the Astros collection of excellent young starters. Players like Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and top prospect Hunter Brown could each be of interest to Arizona GM Mike Hazen and his staff. That’s true to a lesser extent of José Urquidy, although he’d likely be more of a secondary piece if included as part of any Varsho deal.

D-Backs pitching coach Brent Strom is plenty familiar with that group from his days holding the same position in Houston. Whether the Astros would deal from their rotation depth after watching Justin Verlander depart seems an open question, but it’s at least plausible the teams could line up on an outfielder for starting pitcher swap given their respective areas of strength.

Pirates, Tyler Heineman Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates are re-signing catcher Tyler Heineman to a minor league contract, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invite to big league camp.

Heineman will look to crack the Pittsburgh roster for a second straight season. The Bucs nabbed him off waivers from the Blue Jays last May, and he spent the remainder of the 2022 season in Pittsburgh. Heineman set career marks in both MLB games (62) and plate appearances (174) in 2022, with the bulk of that work coming in the Steel City. He and Jason Delay mostly split catching duties for the second half.

The 31-year-old hit .211/.277/.254 through 158 trips to the plate as a Pirate. He now owns a .214/.279/.276 line with one home run in 236 career big league plate appearances. The UCLA product has a far more impressive .283/.350/.413 mark in parts of seven seasons at Triple-A. Heineman has only gone down on strikes in 14.1% of his career trips to the dish at the top minor league level, and he’s carried those excellent bat-to-ball skills over against big league arms. He has just an 11.4% strikeout rate in the majors, but a complete lack of power has resulted in his overall lackluster offensive production.

At the end of the season, the Pirates designated Heineman for assignment. He was not tendered a contract while in DFA limbo, sending him directly to free agency. A month later, he’ll return to the organization and try to play his back onto the MLB roster. A 10-year minor league veteran, he’ll bring a fair bit of familiarity with the pitching staff in Spring Training.

The Pirates are sure to make more impactful moves behind the plate this winter. The Bucs only have one catcher, prospect Endy Rodriguez, on the 40-man roster at the moment. The switch-hitter is sure to open the season in the minors, so GM Ben Cherington and his staff will have to bring in a starting backstop from outside the organization. They could add multiple big league pieces. At the very least, they figure to bring in a new starter and another player or two on non-roster invitations to compete with Heineman and Delay for a backup job next spring.

How Much Can The Dodgers Do Under The Luxury Tax?

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We’re now over a month into the offseason and it’s been a strong one for the players, with many of the top free agents landing contracts that have surpassed expectations. While there’s been plenty of aggression from teams that haven’t traditionally been top dogs like the Mets, Padres and Rangers, the Dodgers have been unusually quiet so far.

The Dodgers opened the 2022 season with a payroll of $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. At the end of the year, they had a large crop of players hit free agency, wiping a huge chunk of change off the books. Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney were all making noteworthy money in 2022 before hitting the open market, with a few midseason pickups and role players departing as well. The Dodgers then cleared out even more money by non-tendering Cody Bellinger and his projected $18.1MM arbitration salary as well as declining Justin Turner’s $16MM club option for 2023.

With all of that, it was certainly a possibility that the club could come into the winter spending wildly and getting their payroll back up to last year’s levels. But while the free agents have been coming off the board with eye-popping deals, the Dodgers have largely been laying in the cut so far. Since the offseason began, the club has re-signed Kershaw and added Shelby Miller on one-year deals, for $20MM and $1.5MM, respectively. Those contracts have brought the club’s payroll for 2023 up to $173MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $189MM.

That leaves the Dodgers plenty of room to work with, in a sense. That pure payroll figure is more than $100MM below what they carried last year and that CBT figure is more than $40MM shy of the lowest CBT threshold. It’s possible they are simply playing a long game, waiting for the frenzy of the early offseason to die down and searching for bargains later in the winter. But there are also reasons to suspect they might continue being fairly inactive.

For one thing, there’s the Trevor Bauer situation to consider. The club signed him to a three-year, $102MM deal going into the 2021 season, though Bauer only made 17 starts for them. He was placed on administrative leave in July 2021 while the league investigated assault allegations against him. In April 2022, he was given a two-year suspension, covering the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. That suspension was without pay, wiping Bauer’s salary from the club’s commitments.

However, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently wrote about Bauer’s attempt to appeal that suspension, with a decision from an arbiter expected either this month or next month. If the suspension were to be completely overturned, the Dodgers will have to pay him for both 2022 and 2023, a $32MM salary for each. That’s true even if the club immediately releases Bauer after that decision. That’s a decent amount of money in itself, but Shaikin points out the Dodgers were luxury tax payors this year and would potentially have to pay extra fees on Bauer’s reinstated salary as well. In terms of 2023, the club’s CBT figure would jump to over $220MM. Shaikin also points out it’s possible the suspension is merely reduced, which would leave the club on the hook for some but not all of that money.

That decision will have a big impact on the club’s financial outlook going forward, so it stands to reason they want to wait and get some clarity there before making huge commitments. There are also more traditional baseball reasons for playing the waiting game, though. The departure of those aforementioned free agents has created many holes in the roster, but they might be able to fill them internally with their strong crop of prospects. On Baseball America’s most recent top 100 list, the Dodgers featured seven players, six of them in the top 52 spots. MLB Pipeline also has seven Dodgers on their list. FanGraphs is a bit less bullish but still puts five young Dodgers in the top 100.

Not only are these prospects highly regarded around the sport, they mostly are close to the majors or already there. Right-hander Ryan Pepiot made his MLB debut in 2022 while fellow righties Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone reached Triple-A. Third baseman Miguel Vargas cracked the majors this year while second baseman Michael Busch spent most of the year in Triple-A. Outfielder Andy Pages isn’t far behind, having spent the year in Double-A. Catcher Diego Cartaya is a bit further away, having spent most of this season in High-A, but he fared well and will likely be in Double-A to start 2023.

It’s possible the club thinks it’s time to let these younger players step up and start folding over a new leaf. “Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors,” Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten told Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times last month. “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.” That certainly suggests the club is willing to let their pricey free agents walk and attempt to replace them with younger and cheaper alternatives.

There’s no guarantee a prospect will come up and succeed at the major league level, no matter how high their praise among evaluators. But teams can’t build successful rosters through free agency alone and have to at least produce some talent from their own pipeline. There is certainly risk in trying to achieve that, but the Dodgers aren’t in a terrible place right now, on paper. Despite the many departures and modest activity thus far, the club’s overall projected WAR currently ranks sixth in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.

The club will surely be looking to make improvements there, though how aggressive they will be is to be seen. It’s been suggested by some the team would like to stay under the luxury tax in 2023 in order to spend more aggressively next winter when Shohei Ohtani is likely to be the top free agent available. As a reminder, the CBT carries increasing penalties for clubs that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers have paid the tax in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023. However, if they stayed under this year, they would reset and could cross the line again in 2024 as a “first-time” payor and significantly lower penalties. With so many contracts coming off the books and so many prospects ready to debut, it would seem now is a good time to flip that reset switch. But if that is indeed the plan, the Bauer decision will loom even larger. If the suspension is upheld, the club has over $40MM to work with before nearing the line, but the number is closer to $10MM if the decision is overturned.

Either way, there’s still plenty of talent currently on the roster. As mentioned, FanGraphs considers them the sixth-best club in the majors at the moment. The rotation is in decent shape with Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May taking up four spots. There are some injury question marks with that group but it’s got a lot of upside. They also have the aforementioned prospects as options for the back-end and depth, with Pepiot, Miller and Stone in the mix. The bullpen has some exciting young pitchers in Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol.

There’s plenty of talent on the position player side as well, with many of them capable of moving around to other positions as needed. Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game and will be behind the plate. The club is reportedly comfortable with Gavin Lux moving from second base to shortstop. Super utility guy Chris Taylor could take over the keystone for him. At the corners, Freddie Freeman will have first base spoken for while Vargas could get an extended audition at the hot corner. Max Muncy can spend some time at first, second and third while also acting as the designated hitter somewhat regularly. In the outfield, Mookie Betts will have one position spoken for while Trayce Thompson should have another. That leaves one spot open for either Busch or James Outman, a prospect a bit behind Busch on the rankings but one who’s posted huge numbers in the upper minors and has already made his MLB debut. There’s also the possibility Muncy takes over second base while Taylor spend significant time in the outfield.

If the club has $40MM to work with, there are plenty of ways for them to spread it around to improve the team while still leaving room for their younger players to take a step forward. Adding a starter would bump their prospects out of the top five but opportunities would surely come up throughout the year. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Even with a free agent addition, opportunities will undoubtedly arise for Pepiot, Miller and Stone.

The top remaining free agent starter is Carlos Rodón, who was predicted by MLBTR for a salary of $28MM but is reportedly looking for a seven-year deal and could theoretically take a lesser annual salary to max out his guarantee. The Dodgers usually prefer higher salaries and shorter terms but they could change their tune if they’re focused on their CBT hit in 2023. Even adding about $25MM for someone like Rodón would leave the club with room for other upgrades, so there isn’t really any starting pitcher they couldn’t fit into their plans in this scenario. Some of the other options available include Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and old friend Ross Stripling.

Adding an outfielder seems a possibility, as it was reported the club made a run at Kevin Kiermaier before he agreed to join the Blue Jays. If the club looks to other options, they likely won’t need to break the bank. The top options are already off the board with Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo each agreeing to rejoin their respective New York clubs. That leaves Andrew Benintendi as arguably the top guy left in this department. MLBTR predicted he would land a $54MM contract over four years, or $13.5MM per season.

The club could also pursue an infielder and bump Taylor into spending more time on the grass, perhaps with Lux staying at second. The top remaining option there is Carlos Correa, though it seems he’s not in the club’s plans. That leaves one other marquee option in Dansby Swanson, with a big drop down to less exciting options like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Brandon Drury or Justin Turner. Swanson was predicted for a $22MM salary over seven years for a $154MM total, while those other names will surely come in under that.

There are plenty of enticing options in any of those paths, but the club would have to be willing to cross the luxury tax again in order to do all of them. If they are indeed planning on staying under, they will like have to make tougher choices about which of these areas are worth their investments and which are worth leaving open for the young ones. Staying under the tax wouldn’t completely hamper the club, as they would almost certainly go into the next season pegged by many for a postseason spot. But FanGraphs currently considers them the fourth-best team in the National League, behind the Braves and the hyper-aggressive Mets and Padres. A modest offseason could still leave the Dodgers in decent shape, but it could perhaps knock them off their pedestal as perennial favorites.

Yankees Preparing To Make Formal Contract Offer To Carlos Rodon

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The Yankees are expected to put forth a contract offer to Carlos Rodón in the coming days, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman has suggested on a few occasions the Yankees have serious interest in the top free agent starter remaining, and putting a formal proposal on the table would mark a notable step in that pursuit.

Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, though Heyman reiterates that New York is reluctant to offer the seven-plus guaranteed seasons the southpaw and his representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly seek. A seventh year is a lofty goal for Rodón’s camp, assuming they’re not banking in a notable dip on an annual basis to compensate for the longer term. That doesn’t appear to be the case, as Heyman writes they’re looking for a deal that tops $200MM in guarantees.

That’s rare territory, as only six pitchers have surpassed the $200MM mark. Gerrit Cole stands head and shoulders above the pack at $324MM over nine years, with the rest of the group checking in between $206.5MM and $245MM. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke are the only other hurlers to reach that level. A handful of additional free agent pitchers (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, CC Sabathia and Barry Zito) have reached seven-plus years on deals under $200MM, but that’s itself a rare occurrence for a pitcher.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM guarantee for Rodón. The free agent rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated, and at least a six-year deal now seems very attainable for the two-time All-Star. Landing a seventh season at an annual salary below that projected $28MM — thereby decreasing the deal’s average annual value and lowering the luxury tax hit for a signing team — could be on the table. That’s been a common strategy this offseason, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo all taking slight discounts on a per-year basis for very long deals with larger guarantees than forecasted. The best of both worlds for Rodón, of course, would be a seven-year term that doesn’t relinquish anything on an annual basis. It remains to be seen if a team will go to those lengths, with a seven-year pact requiring at least $28.57MM in annual salary to get to $200MM total.

Rodón is the only free agent ace still available. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander were the two free agent hurlers who could rival or best Rodón from a performance perspective. Their ages limited them to shorter deals (five and two years, respectively) than the one Rodón is seeking. At age 30, the former third overall draftee has arguably the best combination of performance track record and youth among this year’s class of hurlers. However, he’s not without some question marks as a player with a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder procedure on his injury history.

The North Carolina State product stayed healthy in 2022, tossing a career-high 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball for the Giants. He was brilliant for a second straight season, striking out a third of opponents with solid control. On a rate basis, he’s one of the sport’s top pitchers, but he doesn’t have the workload track record of any pitcher who’d previously gotten to $200MM.

Cole, Strasburg, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer and Grienke had all had multiple seasons with 200+ innings pitched prior to inking their megadeals; Rodón has never gotten to that level. Workload for starting pitchers continues to dwindle, though, and it stands to reason teams will increasingly value per-inning performance while weighing workload volume less as expectations for pitcher roles change.

New York and the incumbent Giants have been tied to Rodón on a few occasions, and Heyman added the Cardinals as a team with interest over the weekend. The Rangers, Mets and Blue Jays were tied to him earlier in the offseason, but Texas later added Andrew Heaney to join deGrom while Toronto agreed to terms with Chris Bassitt this evening. The Mets landed each of Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. The Orioles, Red Sox and Twins have also been very loosely linked to Rodón in prior reports, although the extent of the interest of all three clubs isn’t clear.

Twins, Christian Vazquez Agree To Three-Year Deal

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The Twins have jumped into a fast-moving catching market, reportedly agreeing to terms with Christian Vázquez on a three-year contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, will guarantee him $30MM. Vázquez is represented by MDR Sports Management.

A longtime member of the Red Sox, Vázquez now changes uniforms for the second time in five months. Boston dealt him to the Astros at this past summer’s trade deadline, bringing back prospects Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez for the final half-season before he hit free agency. That left Vázquez in an unfamiliar role splitting time with Martín Maldonado, but it positioned him to secure his second World Series title.

Vázquez, 32, is one of the better all-around catchers in the game. A light-hitting defensive specialist for his first few seasons, the Puerto Rico native has taken a step forward with the bat over the past four years. He hit .276/.320/.477 in 521 plate appearances in 2019, popping a career-best 23 home runs. Vázquez hasn’t replicated that kind of power outside a season with perhaps the liveliest ball the league has ever used, never reaching double digit longballs in another season. Still, he’s been an adequate hitter in two of the past three years. Vázquez stumbled to a .258/.308/.352 mark in 2021, but he was an above-average hitter during the abbreviated 2020 campaign and roughly league average this past season.

Going back to the start of 2019, he owns a .271/.318/.416 line in slightly more than 1600 plate appearances. That’s five percentage points below league average overall, by measure of wRC+, but it’s above par for a catcher. Backstops have a cumulative .232/.304/.390 mark over that stretch. Vázquez doesn’t draw many walks and, 2019 aside, rarely hits for power. His high-contact approach differentiates him from most of his positional peers, as he owns the fifth-lowest strikeout percentage among catchers (minimum 750 plate appearances) since the start of 2019.

The 2022 season was generally par for the course. Among 29 catchers with 300+ trips to the dish, he had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) and fourth-best rate of contact per swing (85.1%). Overall, Vázquez posted a .274/.315/.399 line in 119 games. He carried an impressive .282/.327/.432 mark with the Red Sox before the trade but stumbled to a .250/.278/.308 showing in 35 regular season games as an Astro. Vázquez also did very little offensively in his six-game playoff showing.

The Twins clearly aren’t deterred by that slow finish to the year. That came in an unfamiliar role dividing his reps with Maldonado, and Minnesota presumably anticipates he’ll more closely approximate his production from his time in Boston moving forward. Offense is only part of the story and Vázquez has an excellent reputation with the glove.

For his career, Vázquez has nabbed just under 34% of attempted basestealers. He had a more modest 27.1% mark this year, but that’s still narrowly above the roughly 25% league average. Statcast also credits him with a better than average arm, placing him 20th among 73 catchers with 10+ throws in pop time (average time to throw to second base). Vázquez consistently draws strong grades from public pitch framing metrics. Pair strong receiving with his ability to control the running game, he’s been rated as an above-average catcher by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in all but one season of his career. DRS pegged him 11 runs above par in 2022 and has rated him as 51 runs above average over his eight years in the majors.

That wealth of experience calling games certainly added to Vázquez’s appeal to the Minnesota front office. The Twins have young backstop Ryan Jeffers on hand already. The 25-year-old will continue to see a fair amount of run at Target Field, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine have each spoken of a desire to add another starting-caliber catcher to pair with Jeffers. They’ve done just that, leaving manager Rocco Baldelli to decide how to divvy up playing time.

Jeffers, a right-handed hitter, has been far better against lefty pitching (.263/.344/.450) than same-handed opponents (.185/.256/.361) through his first couple MLB campaigns. Vázquez also hits right-handed and is better against southpaws, but his career splits aren’t so drastic. He has a .257/.309/.422 line against lefty arms and a .263/.310/.372 mark against right-handers. Falvey has already suggested the Twins don’t plan to relegate Jeffers solely to the small side of a platoon, but the presence of a more balanced hitter in Vázquez gives Baldelli some more flexibility in matching up against opposing pitchers.

It’s the first meaningful dip into free agency for Minnesota this offseason. Vázquez’s contract lands right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of $27MM over three years. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but an even distribution of $10MM annually would bring Minnesota’s 2023 payroll around $107MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. There’s a fair amount of room before getting to this past season’s approximate $134MM mark, and the Twins surely aren’t finished. Addressing shortstop — where the organization awaits Carlos Correa’s decision — is the big question, but the Twins also could stand to upgrade both areas of the pitching staff (especially the bullpen) and potentially shake up their outfield.

Vázquez’s signing follows last week’s five-year agreement between the Cardinals and Willson Contreras and this afternoon’s blockbuster that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. As a result, the catching market is drying up quickly. The Blue Jays can still dangle one of their three backstops, with Danny Jansen seemingly the most likely to move. Free agency is without many obvious solutions at this point, with glove-first players like Austin Hedges, Tucker Barnhart, Roberto Pérez and Mike Zunino (the latter two of whom saw their 2022 seasons cut short by surgery) among the options.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Vázquez was making progress on a deal with an unknown team. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the backstop was in agreement with the Twins. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported it was a three-year contract, while Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily was first to report the $30MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Christian Vázquez Reportedly Progressing Towards Deal With Unknown Team

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The market for catcher Christian Vázquez is “heating up” and he’s making progress towards a deal, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Per Cotillo, it’s unclear if the Red Sox are still involved.

It appears that the dominos are falling in the catching market. The top free agent, Willson Contreras, was signed by the Cardinals a few days ago. Earlier today, the top trade option came off the board when Sean Murphy was traded to Atlanta. Now it seems that teams are quickly turning to Vázquez, generally considered the second-best free agent this offseason behind Contreras.

Now 32, Vázquez has been the primary backstop in Boston for most of the past few years, though he was traded to the Astros at the deadline in the most recent season. His bat has been up and down over his career but his work behind the plate has been praised fairly consistently. From 2014 to the present, he has posted 51 Defensive Runs Saved, which places him fifth among all backstops in the league. FanGraphs’ framing metric has given him a 60.5 in that same timeframe, good enough for sixth place.

While Vázquez is sure to provide solid work with the glove, his production with the bat is less certain. Over 2019 and 2020, he hit .278/.327/.472 for a wRC+ of 105. That seemed to be a nice breakout after a few years of more tepid work in the batter’s box. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to maintain it, dropping to a line of .265/.311/.374 over the past two years for a wRC+ of 87.

Regardless, he still was the second catcher on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents for this offseason, getting predicted for a three-year deal worth $27MM. It was reported a few days ago that the Twins made him an offer, while he’s also been connected to the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Padres and Giants with plenty of other clubs surely interested as well. For any clubs that miss out on Vázquez, the remaining free agents would include Omar Narváez, Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges, while the trade market is now headlined by the Toronto of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno.

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