Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
Padres To Place Manny Machado On IL
The Padres are placing third baseman Manny Machado on the 10-day injured list, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Machado had been recently diagnosed with a small fracture in his hand. Infielder/outfielder Brandon Dixon has been recalled in a corresponding move.
Machado was hit on his left hand by a pitch on Monday and initial X-rays came back negative, but a subsequent CT scan revealed the small fracture. The club took a few days to see how the issue developed but have evidently decided to give Machado a bit of a breather to let him heal up. IL placements can be backdated by three days, meaning Machado could be back in a week if he feels better by then.
The 30-year-old is off to a bit of a slow start this year, hitting just .231/.282/.372 through his first 170 plate appearances on the season. But he has a .263 batting average on balls in play for the year, well below his career mark of .300 and the .297 league average this year. Given his career batting line of .280/.339/.489, it would have been fair to expect some positive regression in the weeks to come but that will now have to wait.
It’s not entirely clear how long Machado will be sidelined. Manager Bob Melvin said this evening that Machado could be back when first eligible for a road series against the Yankees next weekend (via Annie Heilbronn of the Union-Tribune). There’s still some uncertainty regarding that timeline, though, as the primary issue is whether there’ll be too much pain for last year’s NL MVP runner-up to grip the bat.
While Machado has been out, the Friars have kicked Ha-Seong Kim over from second to third base. Rougned Odor stepped in at second base twice earlier in the week. Tonight, the Padres are plugging Dixon into the lineup at first base and moving Jake Cronenworth back to the keystone. Odor and Dixon figure to receive the biggest uptick in playing time for as long as Machado is out.
Reds Sign Ryan Meisinger To Minor League Deal
The Reds have signed right-hander Ryan Meisinger to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts.
Meisinger, 29, was an 11th round selection of the Orioles in the 2015 draft and worked his way up to the majors with that club in 2018. He has 31 innings of major league experience to this point, spread between the Orioles, Cardinals and Cubs. He posted a 7.26 ERA in that time with a 21.7% strikeout rate, 13.8% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate.
Last year, Meisinger signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks but was released after posting a 6.14 ERA in 14 2/3 Triple-A innings. He then signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League, registering a 7.06 ERA in 43 1/3 innings for them.
The righty hasn’t had much recent success but has decent Triple-A numbers in his career overall. Across parts of four seasons, he has a 3.37 ERA in 117 2/3 innings at that level, striking out 30.3% of batters faced while walking 9.1%.
The Reds have a bunch of relievers on the injured list right now, with Tejay Antone, Fernando Cruz, Casey Legumina, Reiver Sanmartin and Tony Santillan all out of action. Meisinger will look to position himself to get the call when a fresh arm is needed. If he gets a spot on the 40-man, he has a couple of options and less than a year of service time, meaning he would provide the Reds with a good deal of roster flexibility and cheap control.
Wade Miley Likely To Miss 6-8 Weeks With Posterior Serratus Strain
Brewers left-hander Wade Miley has been diagnosed with a posterior serratus strain and will likely miss the next six to eight weeks, manager Craig Counsell tells reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The southpaw was placed on the 15-day injured list earlier this week with what was initially described as a lat strain.
The posterior serratus muscle is on the back, roughly at the bottom of the ribcage. As relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, it’s rare for a baseball player to strain this muscle, which means the Brewers are putting some guesswork into this recovery timeline.
Regardless of the exact length of Miley’s eventual absence, it seems that it will be somewhat significant, which is unfortunate for the Brewers. They signed the lefty this winter to a one-year deal with a $4.5MM guarantee and incentives. He was off to a strong start, having taken the ball eight times with a 3.67 ERA in those. He only struck out 14% of batters faced but he’s never been a huge strikeout guy. His 5.3% walk rate showed excellent control and he was in the 76th percentile of qualified pitchers in limiting hard contact.
The Brewers knew they would be proceeding without Miley for a bit but will now seemingly have to extended their plans for not having him around. The club is also without starters Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander, none of whom seem particularly close to returning. That leaves them with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser in four rotation spots, with one to fill. Colin Rea and Janson Junk are both on the 40-man roster and would seem to be the first choices to come up, since each has been with the big league club previously this season.
Red Sox Sign Bradley Zimmer To Minor League Deal
The Red Sox have signed outfielder Bradley Zimmer to a minor league deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Zimmer had been with the Dodgers on a minor league deal until being released this week.
Zimmer, 30, was a first round draft selection of Cleveland in 2014 and a top 100 prospect as a minor leaguer. Unfortunately, he hasn’t yet been able to put it together as a hitter, currently sporting a career batting line of .213/.298/.333 in 975 major league plate appearances. He’s struck out in 33.9% of those while walking at just a 7.8% rate. Zimmer signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers this winter but hit just .219/.322/.343 in 121 Triple-A plate appearances, striking out at a 38% clip.
Despite the poor production at the plate, Zimmer still has plenty of appeal in the other parts of his game, as his speed and defense are both generally considered elite. He has 42 stolen bases in his brief major league time and also has strong grades from advanced defensive metrics. He’s accrued 15 Defensive Runs Saved, 14 Outs Above Average and a grade of 7.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating in his career.
The Red Sox have been dealing with uncertainty in center field for much of the season. Once Trevor Story required elbow surgery in the offseason, the club planned to move Enrique Hernández in from center to cover shortstop. They then signed Adam Duvall to cover center but he fractured his wrist after just eight games. Jarren Duran has stepped up and taken the job by hitting .361/.418/.588, but his .464 batting average on balls in play suggests he’s due for some regression. Zimmer will give the club a bit of extra depth at the position and try to earn his way back to the big leagues.
Mets Select Gary Sanchez, Place Tim Locastro On 60-Day IL
May 19: The Mets announced that they’ve selected Sanchez’s contract, optioned Perez to to Syracuse and placed outfielder Tim Locastro on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Sanchez. Locastro has a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb. New York also announced that Nido is heading out on a rehab assignment with the team’s Port St. Lucie affiliate, so further changes to the catching corps could be on the horizon.
May 18: The Mets are selecting the contract of veteran catcher Gary Sánchez, reports Andy Martino of SNY (Twitter link). He’s expected to be formally added to the roster before tomorrow’s game against the Guardians. The Mets will need to create a spot on the 40-man roster before the contest.
Sánchez signed a minor league deal with the Mets a little over a week ago. It was his second non-roster pact of the season. He’d initially signed with the Giants shortly after Opening Day but never got a big league look thanks to significant struggles with their top affiliate in Sacramento. He opted out and caught on with New York thereafter.
The two-time All-Star’s deal with the Mets allowed him to opt out if he wasn’t added to the MLB roster by tomorrow. He’s fortunately gotten out to a much better start for their Triple-A club in Syracuse than he had with Sacramento. He mashed at a .318/.531/.545 clip with a homer, two doubles, eight walks and nine strikeouts in seven games there. His overall Triple-A batting line for the season is a modest .208/.386/.286 thanks to the tough first month, but he’s clearly acquitted himself nicely in his brief time with his new organization.
With the opt-out date looming, reports earlier in the week suggested the Mets were strongly considering calling Sánchez up. Now that they’ve done so, he’ll be guaranteed a prorated $1.5MM salary (roughly $1.1MM through season’s end). Even with the Mets paying a 110% tax on that figure, bringing their total expenditure to around $2.31MM, that’s a reasonable sum for a capable #2 catcher.
Sánchez isn’t going to supplant highly-regarded rookie Francisco Álvarez as the starter. He’ll add an experienced depth option to the bench, offering some extra right-handed power for skipper Buck Showalter. Sánchez is no stranger to New York, of course, as he starred for the Yankees for the first four seasons of his career. His offensive production has fallen off since the start of 2020, as he carries a .195/.287/.394 line in a little under 1100 plate appearances through the past three years.
A much maligned defensive catcher over his time in the Bronx, Sánchez garnered respectable reviews from public metrics last year during his lone season with the Twins. Statcast rated him around league average as a pitch framer and blocker. He threw out a solid 28% of attempted basestealers. If he can carry over roughly average defense with some power and plate discipline, he’d be a solid backup catcher.
New York is without offseason signee Omar Narváez and expected backup Tomás Nido due to injuries. They’ve been relying on journeyman Michael Pérez as Álvarez’s backup of late. A career .180/.250/.308 hitter, Pérez has one remaining minor league option year. Unless the Mets elect to carry three catchers, he’s likely to be optioned to Syracuse or designated for assignment.
The Guardians’ Lineup Needs An Overhaul
The 2022 Guardians skated to a division title in the American League Central and did so with a lineup unlike any other in MLB. Cleveland’s offense was a triumph for fans of small ball and the older-school game that relied far less on the long ball than today’s brand of three-true-outcomes offenses. The ’22 Guardians put the ball in play more than any other team in baseball, and it wasn’t close. Their 18.2% strikeout rate was the lowest in MLB and made them one of just four teams shy of 20%. The others — the Astros (19.5%), Mets (19.7%) and Cardinals (19.9%) — weren’t particularly close. Cleveland ranked 15th in the Majors in runs scored despite ranking 29th in home runs. Their 119 steals (a number that seems pedestrian in light of this year’s rule changes) ranked third in MLB.
Fast forward a season, and the lineup has a similar complexion but staggeringly different outcome. The 2023 Guardians are MLB’s most punchless team, ranking dead last with 24 home runs — just eight more than Pete Alonso has by himself. Cleveland’s 150 runs scored entering play Friday led only the Tigers (143), and the Guards had played two more games than Detroit. Cleveland enters play ranking 28th in the Majors with a .228 batting average and .302 on-base percentage, and 30th out of 30 teams with a .341 slugging percentage.
As The Athletic’s Zack Meisel pointed out Wednesday (Twitter link), Cleveland catchers have been astonishingly anemic at the plate. Prior to Cam Gallagher‘s single yesterday, the Guardians hadn’t received a hit from their catcher since the calendar flipped to May; Gallagher was hitless in 32 at-bats entering play yesterday, while Zunino is currently 0-for-27 with 21 strikeouts this month.
The Guards opened the season surprisingly carrying three catchers: Mike Zunino, Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria. Even after designating Viloria for assignment, they added another catching option in 27-year-old David Fry. The Guardians have gotten less production from behind the dish than any team in the American League. Zunino, Gallagher, Viloria and Fry have combined for a .127/.225/.231 slash (29 wRC+) while serving as catcher, striking out in 38.4% of their plate appearances.
All of this comes at a time when Cleveland has one of baseball’s top catching prospects thrashing Triple-A pitching. Bo Naylor has appeared in 39 games with Columbus, taken 180 turns at the plate and batted .264/.400/.521 with nine home runs, eight doubles, a triple, a sky-high 18.3% walk rate and a 22.6% strikeout rate. The bar he’d need to clear in order to be an upgrade could scarcely be lower, yet he’s still in the minors while Cleveland backstops endure a nearly three-week-long hitless streak.
The problem isn’t confined to the team’s catching corps, although that’s the most glaring weak point in the lineup. Still, here are the Guardians’ position-by-position rankings, in terms of wRC+, at the other positions on the diamond: first base (90, 21st in MLB), second base (86, 19th in MLB), shortstop (79, 23rd in MLB), third base (116, sixth in MLB), left field (97, tied for 13th in MLB), center field (74, 28th in MLB), right field (37, 30th in MLB), designated hitter (80, 26th in MLB).
Jose Ramirez (.285/.364/.457) remains excellent and is the one still decidedly above-average hitter on the roster, although even he’s having a down year by his MVP-caliber standards. Steven Kwan has been solid in left field (.269/.356/.353) but not as good as during last year’s sensational rookie campaign. No other player who’s taken 20 plate appearances for Cleveland this season has been better than league-average at the plate.
Some of this was to be expected. The Guardians surely weren’t hoping to get much offensive production from catcher — though they hoped for more than this — and knew Myles Straw‘s contributions would come more from his elite center field defense and baserunning. But every hitter on the roster has taken a step back from last season’s performance.
The offseason signing of Josh Bell to a two-year, $33MM deal looks regrettable with the Guardians getting closer to the Padres version of Bell from 2022 than the Nationals version. In 177 plate appearances, Bell is walking at a huge 14.7% clip but has batted only .227/.339/.3535 with three home runs. His 19.8% strikeout rate would be the second-highest of his career, and his .127 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) is 33 points south of the league average and 67 points below his own career mark. Bell is hitting the ball on the ground at a staggering 58.6% rate. He can opt out of his contract at season’s end, but it would take a drastic turnaround for that to seem realistic.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has optioned last year’s primary right fielder, Oscar Gonzalez, to Triple-A after he followed up last year’s .296/.327/.461 debut with a .192/.213/.288 start to his sophomore season. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco has already outlined shortstop Amed Rosario‘s struggles, and Josh Naylor hasn’t been any better at first base. Will Brennan, called up to replace the demoted Gonzalez, has barely been an improvement.
The Guardians’ commitments to defense-, contact- and/or speed-oriented players at multiple positions isn’t inherently flawed, but it only works if the rest of the lineup is capable of supporting players like Straw and Zunino (or, in last year’s case, Austin Hedges). That hasn’t been the case in 2023. The Guardians’ team strikeout rate is up nearly two percentage points (from 18.2% to 19.8%), while their team BABIP is down 20 points (from .294 to .274).
That might not seem like much — perhaps an extra strikeout and one extra ball in play turned into an out per game — but the margin for error is thin when there’s practically no one on the team with even average power. The Guardians are completely reliant on balls in play to manufacture runs, which leaves them at the mercy of sequencing and hitting when it counts. Entering play Thursday, they’d batted .228/.296/.325 as a team with men on base. Last year, they hit .258/.319/.394 in such situations.
These struggles all come in spite of remarkably good health among the team’s collection of position players. The Guardians don’t have a position player on the injured list at the moment and in fact haven’t placed a hitter on the Major League injured list all season. They’ve still had injury troubles — Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale and Sam Hentges have most notably been sidelined — but they’ve come exclusively on the pitching side of the roster.
As for how they can turn things around, the avenues to doing so aren’t plentiful in mid-May. The trade market simply isn’t active this time of season — and that was true even before an expansion to a 12-team playoff field likely further emboldened fringe contenders to take a wait-and-see approach to trade deadline season.
Over the past half decade, there have been just two mostly regular position players who were traded in May and had not first been designated for assignment. The Rays shipped Willy Adames and righty Trevor Richards to the Brewers for right-handers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen back in 2021. Tampa Bay was also involved in a 2018 swap with the Mariners, centering around Denard Span and Alex Colome. That’s not to say a deal can’t and won’t happen, but history tells us it’s overwhelmingly unlikely. Cleveland can certainly monitor the DFA and waiver market, but with a 20-23 record they’re not close to top waiver priority right now.
If the Guardians are going to right the ship, they’ll need to promote from within. Bo Naylor is an obvious candidate to join the big league roster and quite arguably should already be there. Tyler Freeman hit .329/.468/.482 in 109 Triple-A plate appearances before being called up to the roster but is being used in a bench role. He’s not a home run threat himself and the team isn’t going to bench Andres Gimenez seven weeks into a seven-year extension, but there are still ways to get Freeman into the lineup more regularly. Top outfield prospect George Valera only just made his season debut in Triple-A a week ago, as he missed the first several weeks of the year recovering from hamate surgery. If he’s able to approximate the .264/.367/.470 output he showed in Double-A last year over even a small sample, there’s good reason to give him a look in right field over both Brennan and Gonzalez sooner rather than later.
The Guardians are rather fortunate that they’ve managed to remain as close to .500 as they have. They’re sitting on a -31 run differential, while the Pythagorean win-loss system and BaseRuns both put their expected record at 18-25. Their sub-par run differential and sub-.500 record come despite the fact that Baseball-Reference grades their strength of schedule to date as the third-easiest in MLB.
Cleveland has already gone full speed ahead with a youth movement in the rotation, giving prospects Tanner Bibee, Logan T. Allen and Peyton Battenfield prominent rotation spots. Some of that’s been necessitated by injury, but the Guardians weren’t shy about optioning one of their most experienced starters, Zach Plesac, to Columbus when he wasn’t performing up to expectations. Given the state of their lineup, it shouldn’t be long before they take a similar approach on the position-player side of the roster. And, if some of those young bats don’t break through, the Guardians ought to be on the lookout for controllable bats heading into the trade deadline — particularly with so much young pitching at their disposal. The schedule is only going to become more difficult from here on out, and the current group of hitters gives little reason for optimism.
Dodgers Select Tyler Cyr
The Dodgers announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Tyler Cyr, with fellow righty Andre Jackson optioned in a corresponding move. The club already had a vacancy on their 40-man roster after designating Dylan Covey for assignment yesterday.
The Dodgers’ relief corps has been getting run through the gauntlet this week, leading to various roster moves as they try to restock with fresh arms. It started on Monday when started Noah Syndergaard lasted just four innings it what eventually turned into a 12-inning game that saw the club use six relievers. Then Clayton Kershaw was also bumped after four frames on Tuesday, leading to the relievers throwing another five. The Dodgers selected Covey prior to Wednesday’s contest, then saw Dustin May depart after just one inning with a flexor pronator strain that’s going to keep him sidelined for weeks. Covey tossed four innings in relief and then four other pitchers followed him. Covey was designated for assignment the next day as Jackson and Justin Bruihl were recalled. Last night, Julio Urías was pushed out after just three innings, leaving the bullpen to pick up another five. Since they were in St. Louis and got crushed, they didn’t have to cover the bottom of the ninth but Jackson did throw 3 1/3 innings in there, getting optioned today for his troubles.
Going into today’s contest, they are yet again scrambling for a fresh arm to have on hand, tapping Cyr to be that arm. The 30-year-old made his major league debut with the Phillies last year, making just one appearance before getting put on waivers and getting claimed by the A’s. He tossed 13 1/3 innings between the two clubs with a 2.70 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 48.5% ground ball rate.
He was released in January and eventually landed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal. He’s tossed 16 2/3 Triple-A innings here in 2023 thus far with a 4.86 ERA, striking out 31.6% of opponents and getting grounders at a 56.4% rate but issuing walks to 13.2% of batters faced. Cyr has a full slate of options and less than a year of service time, meaning he could potentially provide the Dodgers with a depth arm with roster flexibility and cheap control for years to come, provided he performs well enough to hang onto his spot on the 40-man roster.
Pirates Designate Miguel Andujar For Assignment
The Pirates announced that they have activated left-hander Rob Zastryzny from the injured list, with outfielder Miguel Andujar designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Andujar, 28, was selected to the club’s roster three weeks ago but has hit just .161/.212/.387 in his 33 plate appearances since then. He had earned that call-up with a .284/.364/.500 showing in Triple-A but wasn’t able to bring any of that production up to the big leagues with him.
It’s yet another unfortunate development in Andujar’s career, one that seemed so promising a few years ago. He hit .297/.328/.527 for the Yankees in 2018, finishing second to Shohei Ohtani in Rookie of the Year voting. Unfortunately, he required season-ending shoulder surgery after just 12 games in 2019 and hasn’t seemed the same since. Once he returned to health in 2020, the Yankees had filled his third base position with players like DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, which squeezed him out of regular playing time. Over the past few years, he’s continued to hit well in Triple-A but struggled whenever given another shot at the majors. Going back to the start of 2020, he’s hit .291/.346/.508 in the minors but just .237/.268/.354 in the big leagues.
The Bucs will now have a week to either trade Andujar or pass him through waivers. He’s making a salary of $1.525MM this year, which could factor into how this plays out. While some teams might be intrigued by his past success and Triple-A numbers, they would have to be willing to take on that money. Andujar was passed through waivers in January without anyone putting in a claim. He would have had the right to reject an outright assignment at that time but would have had to forfeit that money and ultimately accepted, which could be the same script that is followed in the coming days.
Athletics Designate Zach Neal For Assignment
The A’s announced Friday that they’ve designated righty Zach Neal for assignment and placed fellow righty Zach Jackson on the 15-day injured list with a flexor tendon strain. That pair of moves clears a spot for the selection of righty Lucas Erceg‘s contract. Oakland acquired Erceg from the Brewers in exchange for cash earlier in the week and will put him right onto the MLB roster.
Neal, 34, returned to the Majors for the first time in five years when the A’s called him up last week. He’s appeared in two games and allowed a total of three runs on four hits (two homers) and no walks with three strikeouts. That marks his second stint with Oakland, as he was also with the A’s back in 2016-17. Neal tossed one lone inning for the 2018 Dodgers and spent the 2019-21 seasons pitching for the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. His first NPB season was a strong one, but he struggled in two subsequent years and was also hit hard with the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate in 2022.
Overall, Neal has 89 big league innings and a 5.06 ERA with just an 11% strikeout rate but a minuscule 1.9% walk rate. He’s a heavy ground-ball pitcher who’s had some success in Triple-A, last year’s rough showing with the Rockies organization (6.87 ERA in 116 2/3 innings) notwithstanding. The A’s will have a week to trade him or pass him through outright waivers. Neal would have the ability to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, as he’s been outrighted previously in his career.
Word of a flexor strain for Jackson is tough for the A’s, given that Jackson was one of just two members of the team’s Opening Day bullpen who’d survived to this point. He’s pitched 18 innings of 2.50 ERA ball thus far, fanning 28.7% of his opponents against an admittedly unsightly 12.5% walk rate. Even with that ugly walk rate, Jackson has been a bright spot in an Oakland bullpen that has used a stunning 21 relievers so far this year. The timeline on his recovery hasn’t been provided yet, flexor tendon injuries are rarely accompanied by short-term absences.
Erceg will become the 22nd A’s reliever of the young season whenever he takes the mound. He’s a 2016 second-round pick who drafted by the Brewers as a third baseman but eventually moved to the mound in 2021. Erceg was a reliever in college as well, so the shift wasn’t entirely foreign to him. He’s taken to the mound reasonably well, given the long layoff between his college pitching career and his debut on the mound in pro ball.
The 28-year-old Erceg pitched to a 3.43 ERA in 39 1/3 Triple-A frames following a promotion there last year, fanning just under a quarter of his opponents (24.7%) against a bloated 13.5% walk rate. He’s had a rougher go in 2023, evidenced by a 6.46 earned run average in just 15 1/3 frames.
However, six of the 11 earned runs he’s allowed came in one catastrophic appearance against the Braves’ top affiliate on May 10, wherein Erceg didn’t record an out. He’s been generally solid otherwise, and his 23.9% strikeout rate and 14.9% walk rate are at least within the vicinity of last year’s rates. He’ll obviously still need to cut down on his walks if he’s to have any sustained success on the mound, but the paper-thin A’s are strapped enough for pitching depth that they’ll give him the chance to do so at the big league level for now.