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Rays Sign Elvin Rodríguez, Trevor Kelley To Minor League Deals

By Darragh McDonald | January 18, 2023 at 2:47pm CDT

The Rays have signed right-hander Elvin Rodríguez to a minor league deal, reports Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press. Fellow righty Trevor Kelley also has a minor league deal with the club, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Both players will receive invitations to major league Spring Training.

Rodríguez, 25 in March, began his professional career with the Angels but went to the Tigers as the player to be named later in the 2017 trade that sent Justin Upton to Anaheim. He worked his way up the minor league ladder and spent 2021 primarily in Double-A but with a brief move to Triple-A. Between the two stops, he made 18 starts and one relief appearance, tossing 77 2/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA, but he struck out 24.6% of batters faced and walked 8.6% of them.

Despite that high ERA, the Tigers added him to the roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. That allowed him to serve as optionable depth for the club in 2022, though his first taste of the majors didn’t go well, to put it mildly. Over five starts and two relief appearances, he tossed 29 2/3 innings with a 10.62 ERA. His 17.5% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate were both subpar and he allowed an incredible 12 home runs in that brief time. Things didn’t go much better on the farm, as tossed 99 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 4.98 ERA.

Rodríguez was outrighted off the club’s roster in November but will now try to get a fresh start with the Rays. His new club will surely try to get better results out of a fastball that was in the 89th percentile in terms of spin last year. If they can succeed and Rodríguez earns his way onto their roster, he still has a couple of option years and just a small amount of service time, allowing them to retain him for the foreseeable future.

Kelley, 30, had some brief and unsuccessful time in the majors with the Red Sox in 2019 and the Phillies in 2020. He signed a minor league deal with the Brewers for 2022 and cracked the club’s roster in May. From that point on, he was optioned to Triple-A and recalled five times, moving on and off the roster as the club needed. He didn’t find much success in the majors, posting a 6.08 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. In 34 1/3 frames for Nashville, however, he registered a 2.36 ERA while striking out 30% of batters faced and walking just 7.1% of them.

The Brewers designated him for assignment when they acquired Bryse Wilson and Kelley cleared waivers. He was eligible to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright and has used that opportunity to join the Rays. If he can crack their roster, he still has one option year and less than a full season of MLB service time.

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Rangers, Marlins Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

By Darragh McDonald | January 18, 2023 at 1:47pm CDT

Outfielder Jurickson Profar is one of the top free agents that still remains unsigned and he is drawing plenty of interest around the league. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox at various points throughout the winter and it seems there are a few more teams involved. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the teams interested in Bryan Reynolds are keeping tabs on Profar, a group which includes the Marlins and Rangers.

Reynolds has been consistently in trade rumors for quite some time, which is fairly logical given that he’s emerged as a very good player on a rebuilding Pirates team. He won’t be a free agent until after 2025 and the team could find itself back in contention in that time, but there would also be sense in exchanging his final years of control for younger players that can continue to help the club beyond that timeframe. The Bucs could prolong their relationship with Reynolds by extending him, but recent reporting indicates the sides have been about $50MM apart in their discussions, suggesting a deal isn’t likely to get done anytime soon.

Various teams have tried to free Reynolds from Pittsburgh’s clutches over the past year or two and the player himself has even asked for a trade, but all reports have indicated that the Bucs have been sticking to a high asking price in any trade talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently reported that they are looking for a return analogous to what the Nationals got in the Juan Soto deal. Given the difficulty in working something out with the Pittsburgh front office, it’s understandable that clubs would look to alternatives like Profar.

There are some similarities between the two players as both are switch-hitting outfielders. They’re actually not terribly far apart in age, despite Profar debuting all the way back in 2012. He was only 19 years old then and is now about to turn 30 next month. Reynolds is a couple of years younger, turning 28 in just over a week.

They are also both outfielders, though Reynolds has decidedly more value on defense given that he’s a passable center fielder. Teams will likely have varying views over exactly how passable he is there, since the advanced defensive metrics are split on how to grade his work up the middle. He’s accrued 4 Outs Above Average in his career at that spot but has -16 Defensive Runs Saved and a -7.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Profar, meanwhile, began his career as an infielder but has gradually spent more and more time in the outfield. Since 2019, he’s made brief appearances at second and first base but hasn’t appeared at shortstop or third base. Last year, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field. He did spend 156 2/3 innings in center field over 2020 and 2021 but wasn’t graded well there and is likely considered a corner outfielder by most clubs.

At the plate, Reynolds and Profar have admirable qualities, but in different ways. Both players are good at getting on base, with Reynolds posting a .345 OBP last year and .361 mark for his career. Profar is slightly behind in that regard, with a .331 OBP in 2022 and .322 overall. Reynolds is also ahead in the power department, hitting 27 home runs last year and 74 in his career thus far. Profar hit 15 last year and has only 78 in his career, despite more than 1,000 extra plate appearances compared to Reynolds. Profar’s work was enough for a 110 wRC+ last year, 10% better than league average, but behind the 125 that Reynolds managed.

There’s little doubting that Reynolds is a more enticing option than Profar but the latter option will cost only money, allowing the acquiring club to hang onto the pile of prospects they would theoretically send to Pittsburgh in a Reynolds deal. MLBTR predicted Profar could secure a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason. That was before the market really got going and surpassed the expectations of many observers, though Profar lingering on the market suggests no team has been eager to blow him away by surging beyond that vicinity.

The Rangers currently have a competitive balance tax calculation of $219MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. Signing someone like Profar to about $10MM per year would start pushing them close to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. It’s unclear if that’s any kind of barrier for the club, but it’s something they would have to consider if they decide to bring Profar into the fold. The Marlins, meanwhile, are nowhere near the luxury tax but are in somewhat uncharted spending territory for them. Roster Resource has their payroll currently at $103MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $79MM mark, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the highest since the Bruce Sherman-led group bought the team from Jeffrey Loria in 2017. It’s unknown how much more they have to work with but any further spending would continue to stretch them beyond comfort zone of the past few years.

Regardless of the final cost, there are logical reasons for both teams to pursue outfield upgrades. The Rangers have Adolis García in right field and Leody Taveras as a glove-first option in center. They’ve been on the hunt for left field upgrades, given that their current choices make up a mixed bag of imperfect options. Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Durán and Mark Mathias are on the roster, though they’ve all spent more time on the infield than the outfield in their careers. Furthermore, all but Mathias are coming off poor seasons at the plate. Bubba Thompson is a more straightforward solution since he’s an outfielder and can at least steal some bases, but he strikes out a ton and hit .265/.302/.312 in his major league debut.

The Marlins have been seeking outfield upgrades for quite some time but added a few options into the corners last year by signing Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Both players had disappointing seasons in 2022 but are still under contract for 2023, with Soler seemingly ticketed for plenty of time as the designated hitter after he dealt with back spasms in the later parts of last season. That could leave one corner available for someone like Profar, though they also have Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and JJ Bleday currently lined up to battle for the two spots next to Garcia. None of those three are truly established and an external addition could bump them all down the depth charts until they take steps forward in cementing themselves. De La Cruz hits right-handed and the other two from the left side, which could allow them to form a platoon in center with one player getting nudged to the bench or the minors.

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Miami Marlins Texas Rangers Bryan Reynolds Jurickson Profar

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Mets, Tomas Nido Agree To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | January 18, 2023 at 1:40pm CDT

The Mets have agreed to a two-year, $3.7MM contract with catcher Tomas Nido, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The contract buys out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and will pay the ACES client $1.6MM in 2023 and $2.1MM in 2024.

Nido had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.6MM in 2023. He’d originally reached a one-year agreement worth $1.575MM, but he’ll instead get a bump for the upcoming season and lock in his final two years of club control at fixed price points. The deal grants the Mets a bit of additional cost certainty beyond the current season and ensures that they’ll retain control over a strong defensive backup at an affordable rate.

The 28-year-old Nido has posted a .236/.275/.338 batting line in exactly 500 Major League plate appearances over the past three seasons. It’s tepid offense at best, and while he’s been slightly below-average in terms of preventing stolen bases (22% caught-stealing rate), Nido has thrived in other defensive aspects of the game. He’s drawn standout framing marks from each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, the latter of which also grades him as well above-average in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt. Nido has tallied just 1132 innings hind the plate since Opening Day 2021 but nonetheless racked up a whopping 18 Defensive Runs Saved.

Nido, at one point, was one of four catchers on the Mets’ roster before they lined up with the Orioles on a trade sending James McCann to Baltimore. He’s now likely to open the season behind Omar Narvaez, but the Mets will have top prospect Francisco Alvarez looming in the minors as an heir-apparent who could quickly reach the Majors in the event of an injury to Narvaez. Alvarez, 21, reached the Majors briefly in 2022 and went 2-for-12 with a home run and a double.

There’s been some speculation about him potentially serving as a DH option for the Mets early in the year, but as SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning in the wake of the Mets’ one-year deal with Tommy Pham, Alvarez won’t be a DH at the Major League level. He’s instead expected to get everyday reps behind the plate in Triple-A Syracuse. Narvaez is playing under a two-year, $15MM contract, but the second season of that deal is a player option valued at $7MM. If he has even a decent season with the Mets, he’ll likely decline that option and return to the market, setting the stage for Alvarez and Nido to take over as the primary catching tandem.

Nido’s deal is a low-cost move for the Mets, but it still slightly elevates their luxury-tax bill on the season. Had Nido remained on the $1.575MM deal to which he’d previously agreed, the Mets would’ve only owed him that salary and paid a 90% tax on that sum (a combined $2.9925MM expenditure). Instead, Nido’s luxury hit will be based on the $1.85MM average annual value of his new contract. The new contract will tack on an additional $272,500 to the team’s luxury bill. Nido will be a free agent following the 2024 season.

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New York Mets Transactions Tomas Nido

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Royals, Padres Among Teams Interested In Aroldis Chapman

By Steve Adams | January 18, 2023 at 1:11pm CDT

Both the Royals and Padres have some level of interest free-agent lefty Aroldis Chapman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This comes just one day after the Marlins were also reported to have interest in the former Yankees, Cubs and Reds closer.

The 2022 season was a rough one for Chapman, who’ll turn 35 next month. The lefty’s fastball, which once averaged better than 101 mph, dropped to a 97.5 mph average in 2022. Simultaneously, his command troubles spike to their worst levels since back in 2011. Chapman’s 26.9% strikeout rate in 2022 was better than league-average but still a career-low by a wide margin, and he walked a massive 17.5% of his opponents, which is the second-worst mark of his career.

Chapman’s 4.46 ERA was passable but nevertheless the highest of his career, and he missed six weeks of the season with an Achilles injury in addition to a roughly three-week absence owing to a leg infection related to a recent tattoo he’d received. He was also left off the Yankees’ postseason roster after skipping a team workout

Kansas City has taken its share of low-cost gambles on former high-profile closers in recent years, inking Trevor Rosenthal prior to the 2020 season and also bringing former K.C. stars Wade Davis and Greg Holland back for buy-low reunion tours. Chapman would be a page out of a similar playbook.

With just an $85MM projected payroll (via Roster Resource) and plenty of uncertainty behind closer Scott Barlow, the Royals represent a sensible enough on-paper fit. They already have three potential southpaws for the ’pen, with Amir Garrett, Anthony Misiewicz and Richard Lovelady on hand, but Misiewicz does have a pair of minor league option years remaining. And, if Chapman were able to bounce back into form, he could potentially be someone they look to flip to another club as the trade deadline draws nearer.

As for the Padres, nary a free agent with any name value passes by without being connected to them. The Friars already have a deep bullpen, headlined by Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and a hopefully healthy Drew Pomeranz, but Chapman would add another big arm to the mix. Ownership and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have shown a clear affinity for high-profile stars in recent years, even if some of those name-brand players have been past their peak production.

Then again, they’re also already sitting on a $251MM payroll, and Chapman could push them into the third tier of luxury penalization, given the projected $270.6MM currently on their luxury ledger. In terms of monetary penalization, the jump from adding Chapman likely wouldn’t be large. The Padres would pay a 42% tax on every dollar up to $273MM in luxury obligations, and that number would jump to 75% thereafter. However, presuming Chapman won’t command much more than a few million dollars on a one-year rebound deal, that sum won’t be particularly burdensome.

That said, there’s a greater cost to consider if the Padres want to continue spending in free agency. Exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM also results in a team’s top pick in the subsequent year’s draft pushed back by 10 places. Tacking on even a $3MM salary for Chapman would come with something like $4MM in costs between his salary and luxury tax penalties, but would more importantly drop the Padres out of the top 30 in the 2024 draft while also reducing the size of their bonus pool. Further trades, of course, could always alter that calculus, but the Padres were recently reported to be approaching a “self-prescribed” spending limit. It wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the point at which payroll begins to detrimentally impact future drafts is indeed that limit.

While much of the free-agent market moved at an accelerated pace this offseason, the market for left-handed relievers has been curiously slow. Taylor Rogers took until late December to land his three-year deal with the Giants, and Chapman joins the likes of Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton as a southpaw reliever of note that has yet to sign a team for the 2023 season.

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Kansas City Royals San Diego Padres Aroldis Chapman

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Mets To Sign Tommy Pham

By Steve Adams | January 18, 2023 at 12:47pm CDT

Jan. 20: Pham has passed his physical, tweets Nightengale. The outfielder will earn a $200K bonus upon reaching 225 plate appearances with the Mets, and he’ll unlock additional $200K bonuses for every 25th plate appearance thereafter, all the way up through 450 plate appearances. With the physical complete, the Mets should announce the deal sooner than later.

Jan. 18, 10:26am: It’s a one-year, $6MM contract for Pham, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that the contract contains $2MM of available incentives and is expected to be finalized Thursday.

10:08am: The Mets and Pham have agreed to terms on a contract, Martino tweets. The deal is pending a physical.

9:44am: The Mets have an offer on the table to free-agent outfielder Tommy Pham and is optimistic about completing a deal, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. The Mets also made offers to Andrew McCutchen and Adam Duvall, per the report, but McCutchen preferred to go back to his original team in Pittsburgh while Duvall had the opportunity for more playing time in Boston.

Pham, 35 in March, split the 2022 season between Cincinnati and Boston, batting a combined .236/.312/.374 with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 622 plate appearances. It was a down season overall, but Pham’s line included a stout .273/.338/.446 batting line against left-handed pitching.

Additionally, Pham’s batted-ball profile also serves as a portent for increased production in the future. His 92.2 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile of all big league hitters, while his 48.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 89th percentile, per Statcast. Even if bat doesn’t bounce all the way back to the levels those numbers suggest, there’s a good chance he can be a useful platoon option. Also, Pham also still drew favorable rankings for his arm strength in the outfield (74th percentile) and average sprint speed (66th percentile). Defensive metrics panned his glovework on the whole (0 DRS, -6 OAA), but the tools are there for him to rebound in that capacity as well.

From 2015-19, Pham was one of the game’s most underrated outfielders, batting a combined .277/.373/.472 (130 wRC+) with a hefty 12.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter overall since that time, but given his speed, arm strength and solid production against lefties, he’s a nice bat to have on the bench.

Pham is mostly limited to left field at this point in his career — he has just 91 innings in center field an seven in right field since 2018 — but he’ll give the Mets some outfield insurance while perhaps serving as a right-handed complement to lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach. That’s especially true if the Mets look to move on from Darin Ruf after a disappointing couple months in Queens following last year’s acquisition at the trade deadline.

While Pham himself might not be a backup option to Brandon Nimmo in center field, adding him to the mix provides the Mets with some additional cover in the event of an outfield injury. For instance, both left fielder Mark Canha and (especially) right fielder Starling Marte have experience in center field, so either could shift to center should Nimmo need a day off or a trip to the IL, with Pham then slotting into left field and Marte/Canha covering the other two outfield slots.

The Mets also have 24-year-old Khalil Lee as a lefty-hitting outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, though he has a minor league option remaining. Pham’s addition creates the possibility of sending Lee to Triple-A Syracuse for regular playing time — a luxury the team may not have previously been able to afford. Previously, the Mets’ only outfielders on the 40-man roster all projected to be on the big league roster as well, so the extra depth fills a clear need.

On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM. New York’s projected bottom-line payroll for the 2023 season jumps to a bit more than $356MM, with about $374MM in luxury-tax considerations on the books. That puts them in well into the top luxury bracket and sets the stage for the Mets to be a third-time payor in the 2024 season, which point they’d owe an even steeper 110% tax on every dollar spent above the top line. Owner Steve Cohen has shown little concern with such penalties, however, and Pham’s luxury hit will be a relative drop in the bucket compared to the sum the Mets were planning to pay Carlos Correa before concerns regarding his medicals scuttled the 12-year deal between the two parties.

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New York Mets Newsstand Transactions Adam Duvall Andrew McCutchen Tommy Pham

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Royals Sought Josh Winder For Michael A. Taylor In Trade Talks With Twins

By Anthony Franco | January 18, 2023 at 11:25am CDT

The Twins have contacted the Royals this offseason about the possibility of acquiring center fielder Michael A. Taylor, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. However, Hayes adds that Minnesota was “discouraged” by Kansas City’s ask for right-hander Josh Winder in return. There’s no indication conversations between the clubs are still ongoing.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last month that Kansas City was making Taylor available in trade. Minnesota is the first known team to have checked in with Royals GM J.J. Picollo and his staff regarding the defense-first outfielder. Even if talks didn’t advance especially far, Kansas City’s ask for Winder suggests they’re at least opening conversations regarding Taylor with a lofty goal. That might be especially true for an intra-divisional opponent like the Twins.

Winder, 26, is one of the more highly-regarded pitchers in the Minnesota organization. While he entered pro ball with little fanfare as a 7th-round pick out of VMI, he put himself firmly on the radar coming out of the canceled 2020 minor league season. Winder pushed his average fastball velocity up a few ticks into the mid-90s over the lost year and excelled over 10 starts at Double-A Wichita to start the 2021 campaign. He struggled in a four-start look with Triple-A St. Paul to end that season but nevertheless entered 2022 as one of the better prospects in the Twins’ system.

Baseball America slotted the 6’5″ hurler sixth in the Minnesota system heading into last season, calling him a potential mid-rotation starter. Winder broke camp with the MLB club and made his first 15 big league appearances. He made 11 starts and came out of the bullpen four times, working to a 4.70 ERA through 67 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate and 35% grounder percentage were each markedly below average, though he continued his career-long track record of pounding the strike zone.

While it wasn’t a resoundingly successful debut effort, Winder showed enough promise to believe he could still play a long-term rotation role in the Twin Cities. He mixed four pitches with regularity, led by a 94 MPH fastball and mid-80s slider. Winder has long had above-average or better control and held his own against left-handed batters last season. Even if he never misses enough bats to reach the mid-rotation upside some prospect evaluators had forecasted, he’s an upper-level depth arm who could carve out a back-of-the-rotation spot as soon as this year.

Minnesota optioned Winder on a couple occasions last year. That exhausted his first of three option years but also means he fell shy of accruing a full year of service time. He’s controllable for at least another six seasons and additional assignments back to St. Paul could push his free agent trajectory back further. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.

It’s not surprising the Twins wouldn’t relinquish six-plus years of Winder’s services for Taylor, who is only under contract for the 2023 campaign. Minnesota could see each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda depart via free agency next offseason. That’d leave them with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and unproven younger arms like Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland to vie for rotation spots as things stand. The long-term uncertainty has led the Twins to entertain trade possibilities with the Marlins about potentially adding a controllable starter like Pablo López to the mix.

While one season of Taylor’s services isn’t likely to bring back Winder, he should have a decent amount of appeal on the trade market. The veteran outfielder has had a productive two-year run in K.C. after spending the bulk of his career with the Nationals. Taylor has long been a below-average offensive player thanks to swing-and-miss concerns, but he’s one of the sport’s preeminent outfield defenders.

The 31-year-old (32 in March) has played upwards of 1000 innings in center field in each of the last two years. He’s been a stellar fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium, with Defensive Runs Saved estimating he’s been 19 runs better than an average center fielder in both seasons. His cumulative +38 DRS is head and shoulders above the rest of the league at the position, with Myles Straw checking in second at +21 runs. Statcast has been a little more conservative but still pegged Taylor as +19 runs over the past two seasons, tied with Harrison Bader for second behind Straw.

While whether Taylor’s truly the league’s best defensive outfielder or “merely” in the top handful is debatable, it’s clear he’s an elite gloveman. That drives his value, as he carries a modest .249/.304/.357 line in just under 1000 plate appearances as a Royal. To his credit, Taylor has tamped down on the massive strikeout rates of his time in Washington, with last season’s 23.9% strikeout percentage only a couple points worse than the league average. He’s had to sacrifice some hard contact to put the ball in play more frequently, posting the two lowest isolated power marks of his career the last couple seasons.

Even as a bottom-of-the-lineup type, Taylor’s a valuable player. He’s also making just $4.5MM in 2023, meaning he should be able to fit on virtually any club’s payroll ledger. Minnesota eyed him as a fourth outfielder as potential injury insurance behind Byron Buxton and a right-handed bat to integrate into an outfield that skews very left-handed. Yet he could appeal to other clubs as more of an everyday center field option, particularly given the market scarcity at the position. The free agent center field market is barren enough the Red Sox agreed to terms with Adam Duvall — who’s 34 and has been mostly a corner player throughout his career — to play up the middle. Trade possibilities are similarly sparse, particularly since the Pirates have remained firm on their ask for Bryan Reynolds.

That all makes Taylor a potentially interesting trade candidate. The Royals’ discussions with the Twins suggest they’re not prepared to move him without getting a strong return. That seems unlikely to come from Minnesota, though teams like the Marlins, Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies could check in as they continue to seek out help at the position.

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Mets Among Teams Interested In Andrew Chafin

By Steve Adams | January 18, 2023 at 11:17am CDT

The market for lefty reliever Andrew Chafin is “heating up,” per Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link), and the Mets are among the teams with interest. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that as many as seven other clubs have been talking with Chafin, however. Mets GM Billy Eppler said yesterday that he still hoped to add another outfielder and a reliever, and he’s checked one of those two items off his list before lunch today by agreeing to a one-year deal with Tommy Pham.

Chafin, 32, is quite arguably the best reliever remaining on the free-agent market and entered the offseason as one of the top overall lefties available. He declined a $6.5MM player option with the Tigers at the end of the 2022 season and ought to be able to clear that guarantee by a fair measure — likely on a multi-year deal. That’s to be expected after the southpaw turned in a 2.83 ERA inn 57 1/3 innings last season while drawing similar reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.06), xERA (2.92) and SIERA (2.97).

While Chafin doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater in 2022, the veteran southpaw does offer one of the best blends of missed bats, solid command and ground-ball tendencies of any reliever in the game. Chafin fanned 27.6% of his opponents in 2022, combining that with a quality 7.8% walk rate and a 51.3% ground-ball rate. Chafin was one of just nine qualified relievers in all of baseball who topped a 25% strikeout rate and 50% ground-ball rate while also sporting a walk rate lower than 8%. He also limited hard contact quite well, yielding an 87.5 mph average exit velocity that ranked in the 73rd percentile of pitchers and a 33.8% hard-hit rate that sat in the 81st percentile, per Statcast.

Chafin isn’t necessarily elite in any one single way, but he’s well above-average in a variety of important areas. Coupled with his age and handedness, that ought to lead to widespread appeal on the free-agent market. The bullpen market as a whole got out to a quick start, but the market for lefties has been slower to develop — evidenced by the fact that Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton are among the still-available names.

The Mets indeed represent a nice fit for Chafin, though a veteran of this stature is an upgrade to virtually any bullpen in the sport. New York currently projects to have Brooks Raley and perhaps one of David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi or Tayler Saucedo in the ’pen as lefty options for manager Buck Showalter. Adding Chafin could allow the Mets to either carry three southpaws or to begin the year with both Peterson and Lucchesi in the Triple-A rotation, keeping both stretched out as viable starting depth in the event of injuries at the MLB level.

Again, though, there simply aren’t many teams that Chafin wouldn’t improve, so finding suitors for him is likely more a matter of determining how many motivated spenders remain on the market. The Mets certainly fall into that bucket and wouldn’t bat an eye at the 90% luxury tax they’ll have to pay on top of Chafin’s salary, but there are certainly other contenders and hopeful contenders with some money to spend who could give the Mets some competition in the bidding.

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Zaidi: Giants Unlikely To Make Further Roster Additions Right Now

By Darragh McDonald | January 18, 2023 at 10:40am CDT

Last week, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said that the club wanted to improve behind the plate but were unlikely to give out a major league deal to address that position. It appears that viewpoint extends to other areas of the roster as well, with Zaidi again speaking with reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.

“It would be nice to have somebody who can play the middle infield spots off the bench, ideally a plus defender,” Zaidi said. “But that bumps somebody off the roster and right now, the way it looks, everybody has kind of got a clear role.” And how about the outfield? “It would be a challenge bringing in any additional outfielders and having to move guys around,” he says. “We sort of have most, if not all, of our at-bats accounted for at those [outfield] spots right now.”

It seems the Giants are pretty happy with all of the players in the mix at the moment and will stick to non-roster moves for the time being. The club added a couple of outfielders already this winter, signing Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger to take over the corner spots. That leaves Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater handling center field while Joc Pederson is likely takes the bulk of at-bats in the designated hitter slot. They also have Luis González and Heliot Ramos as optionable depth players.

On the infield, it will be more of a hodgepodge of holdovers from last year’s roster. Brandon Crawford seemed like he was going to get bumped off shortstop when Carlos Correa was set to take over that job for the next 13 years. That deal then fell through and Correa is returning to the Twins, allowing Crawford to hang on to the spot. Thairo Estrada took over the second base job last year and should be back there in 2023. In 541 plate appearances in 2022, he hit 14 home runs and slashed .260/.322/.400 for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% better than the league average hitter. He also added 21 stolen bases but the reviews on his defense were mixed. Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating pegged him as being just a shade below league average but Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -12. Perhaps a bit more exposure to the position would help, as he’d only ever had part-time duty at the keystone prior to last year. Zaidi mentioned the club would like to add another middle infielder, though it seems they will stick to minor league deals.

LaMonte Wade Jr. has been squeezed out of the outfield picture but seems likely to get plenty of opportunity to take over first base with Brandon Belt now out of the picture. Third baseman Evan Longoria also has a new team this year, leaving third base primarily in the hands of Wilmer Flores, while J.D. Davis and David Villar are each on hand to help out at the corners on occasion.

In terms of depth, Isan Díaz and Brett Wisely are each on the 40-man roster and can be optioned. That’s something that seems to be valued, given Zaidi’s comments about not wanting to bump anyone off their current roster position. Wisely has yet to make his major league debut, having just been acquired from the Rays and added to the roster prior to the Rule 5 deadline. He hit .274/.371/.460 in Double-A last year for a 121 wRC+ while playing each infield position and left field. As for Díaz, he was outrighted by the Marlins but then acquired by the Giants for non-roster depth. He responded by hitting .275/.377/.574 for Triple-A Sacramento and getting a roster spot again.

Like all clubs, the Giants would surely love to add some extra depth to this group but it seems they like all of these players enough that they don’t want to sacrifice any of them in the name of additions. “I wouldn’t rule out bringing in somebody who could be a multi-position utility type who is maybe a speed-and-defense specialist, but it would bump somebody that right now we’re planning [on being] on the roster, so that would come at some cost,” Zaidi said.

If that viewpoint continues to hold for the next few weeks, the Giants will seemingly keep themselves to minor league deals. One roster spot seems likely to open up soon, however, as it’s been reported that Luke Jackson could open the season on the 60-day injured list while continuing to rehab from Tommy John surgery. There’s no injured list during the offseason but players can be placed there once pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. If the club finds another player they’d like to add to their roster, they could try waiting a few weeks to close the deal, though the player  could also pursue more firm commitments elsewhere in the interim. They would also have to be quite confident in Jackson’s timeline, since the 60-day clock doesn’t begin until Opening Day, meaning he wouldn’t be eligible for activation until late May.

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Red Sox Interested In Josh Harrison

By Darragh McDonald | January 18, 2023 at 9:57am CDT

The Red Sox have been looking for ways to bolster their roster and have infielder Josh Harrison “on their radar,” reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

This item from Heyman came out before the Sox reached an agreement with Adam Duvall, but that move likely doesn’t do much to dampen their interest in Harrison. With Duvall taking some time in center field, that could theoretically move Enrique Hernández into a middle infield role, but they would likely still have a need for someone like Harrison. Just recently, when speaking about the club’s need to add a couple of up-the-middle players, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said it “doesn’t even need to be limited to two.”

There were a few reasons why the Sox needed to look for so much help up the middle. Xander Bogaerts, the club’s shortstop of many years, opted out of his contract and signed with the Padres. The hope in Boston was that Trevor Story, who played second base last year in deference to Bogaerts, could slide over to the other side of the bag this year. But while ramping up for the season ahead, he experienced some pain in his arm and ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John. He’s now set to miss most or perhaps all of the 2023 season.

That left the club with limited options for the middle infield and center field. Hernández and Christian Arroyo could have perhaps combined in the middle infield, though both players have fairly limited experience at shortstop. Arroyo has just 172 1/3 big league innings there, spending much more time at second and third base. Hernández has logged 618 innings at short but scattered over the past nine seasons, never reaching 160 in any individual campaign. That scenario would also leave Jarren Duran as the everyday center fielder and the catching duties in the hands of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong. Aside from Hernández, none of those options have truly established themselves as everyday players in the big leagues, leaving Boston with one solid choice for four positions. That makes it plenty sensible that they’d look for fortifications in the form of multiple players.

Since the news of Story’s injury, the club has added Jorge Alfaro on a minor league deal to help behind the plate and the aforementioned Duvall signing gives them an extra option in center field. The latter signing seems to point to Hernández spending more time on the dirt but they could further bolster their infield by adding Harrison. The 35-year-old spent his prime with the Pirates but has since gone into journeyman mode, jumping to the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and White Sox over the past four seasons.

With Chicago last year, he got into 119 games, providing his usual blend of low power and high contact. He hit just seven home runs on the year and only walked in 4.9% of his trips to the plate, but he also went down on strikes just 16.7% of the time. He finished the year with a batting line of .256/.317/.370 for a wRC+ of 98, just two ticks below league average. Defensively, Harrison played mostly second base but also occasionally played third base, left field and shortstop. He’s likely not viewed as a solution at that latter position since he only spent three innings there last year and just 265 in his career, with most of that coming way back in 2012. His work at second and third is generally graded well though, and he can take an outfield position in an emergency.

A signing of Harrison would likely require the Red Sox to view Hernández as a viable solution at shortstop. Chad Jennings of The Athletic wrote back in December that there are some in the organization who indeed see him that way. As mentioned earlier, he’s logged some decent innings there in the aggregate but hasn’t spent an extended stretch at the position. That makes it hard to gauge how he’d fare on a full-time basis, but for what it’s worth, advanced defensive metrics don’t make it seem like an outlandish idea. He’s earned nine Defensive Runs Saved over his 618 career innings and a 5.3 from Ultimate Zone Rating, though Outs Above Average has given him a -3.

The Sox have also expressed some interest in a more straightforward shortstop solution in the form of Elvis Andrus. He’s never played anywhere else except short and could simply kick Hernández over to second base where’s spent 1717 innings in his career, almost three times as much as his work at short. Since Andrus can play shortstop, he’ll likely require a slightly higher financial investment than Harrison, so the Sox would have to decide whether it’s worth the extra few dollars to get the more obvious fit or try to save a few bucks in order to try the more creative route and give Hernández a shot at the job. The latter path would be fairly risky, since Duvall also isn’t a proven option in center field. He only has 593 2/3 innings that that spot in his career, all of that coming in the past three years. Signing Harrison to play second would mean the Sox are committing to unproven options at shortstop and center, both considered to be premium defensive positions.

The agreement with Duvall pushes Boston’s competitive balance tax calculation to $216MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. That leaves the club with some wiggle room before they reach the $233MM luxury tax threshold, which they probably would like to stay under after just barely going over last year. They could certainly fit in a contract for either Andrus or Harrison while staying under the line, but they probably want to earmark some funds for some more pitching and midseason acquisitions. Other free agents who could help in the middle infield include José Iglesias, César Hernández and Didi Gregorius.

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The Opener: Marlins, Signings, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | January 18, 2023 at 9:28am CDT

Following a busy morning on the hot stove, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Are the Marlins staying active in the free agent market?

The Marlins have been long expected to be more active on the trade market — where they’ve already dealt shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers and are currently marketing a group of young, controllable starters to rival clubs — than in free agency. That said, even as Miami discusses trades with the Twins and Cardinals (among many other suitors), they might be more active on the open market than otherwise expected. They’ve already signed right-hander Johnny Cueto to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, and reports yesterday indicated that the club has interest in first baseman Yuli Gurriel and closer Aroldis Chapman.

The Marlins enjoy a great deal of flexibility as to which MLB-ready players to target in their dealings with other clubs, with plenty of space to upgrade at virtually every position outside of the starting rotation. While this flexibility allows them to be adaptable in trade discussions, focusing more on the quality of the talent they bring in rather where they talent can contribute, it also means that it’s unlikely they’ll be able to fill every hole on a roster that lost 93 games last season.

2. Recent signings yet to be made official

In Monday’s Opener, we discussed Miami’s reported deal with Johnny Cueto and San Diego’s reported deal with Nelson Cruz, which both had yet to be made official. Those deals have still not been made official, and they are joined in limbo by four right-handed corner bats: Andrew McCutchen, Trey Mancini, Brian Anderson, and Adam Duvall. McCutchen’s $5MM agreement with the Pirates and Mancini’s two-year, $14MM pact with the Cubs were reported as far back as last weekend, so they’re likelier to be made official more quickly than Anderson’s deal with the Brewers or Duvall’s signing with the Red Sox, both of which were reported in just the past twelve hours. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Milwaukee and Boston all join Miami and San Diego in having full 40-man rosters, meaning corresponding moves will be needed for each signing.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins.

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