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Cade Cavalli To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Nick Deeds | March 16, 2023 at 9:07am CDT

Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo announced today in a press release that right-hander Cade Cavalli has a grade 3 UCL sprain and will require Tommy John surgery, meaning Cavalli will miss the entire 2023 season.

Cavalli, 24, figured to be a member of the Nationals starting rotation this year after making his big league debut in a single start last August before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation. While he struggled mightily in that start (seven earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings), Cavalli was among not only Washington’s top prospects, but among the best prospects in the game, with most services considering him a top 60 prospect in the sport. Instead of joining fellow youngsters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore as they make their cases as rotation arms of the future for the rebuilding Nationals, Cavalli will spend the entire 2023 season rehabbing and likely not return to the mound until sometime during the 2024 season.

Cavalli rocketed through the minor leagues in his first professional season in 2021, dominating in High-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA for 40 2/3 innings before moving up to Double-A, where he continued to excel with a 2.79 ERA in 58 innings before hitting a wall following a promotion to Triple-A. At the Triple-A level in 2022, Cavalli was torched to the tune of a 7.30 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. Though a .397 BABIP indicated some bad luck, his 4.54 FIP still indicating pronounced struggles relative to his dominance of lower levels of the minors.

In 2022, Cavalli returned to Triple-A and looked more like himself, hurling 97 innings with a 3.71 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Those numbers came with a 25.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate, and just three home runs allowed. Cavalli grew more impressive as the season wore on, with a sterling 1.47 ERA across seven minor league starts in July and August ahead of his big league call-up at the end of the month.

With Cavalli shelved for 2023, the Nationals seem likely to rely on either non-roster invitee Chad Kuhl to round out their Opening Day rotation. Kuhl, 30, has been a below average starter for his career, posting a 4.74 ERA (91 ERA+) in 576 2/3 innings of work with the Pirates and Rockies. That being said, he provides a steady veteran presence at the back of a rotation that’s rather young outside of Patrick Corbin. If the Nationals wish to have other arms still in camp compete with Kuhl for the fifth rotation spot, there are a couple of options remaining. Wily Peralta could be stretched out in the final weeks of Spring Training, as he has ample starting experience despite being used in short relief this spring, and Paolo Espino made 19 starts for the Nationals last year, pitching to a 4.84 ERA in 113 1/3 innings.

Should Kuhl begin the year in the rotation, that leaves youngster Joan Adon, who was recently cut from big league camp by the Nationals, as the likely top depth option. Adon made 14 starts for the Nationals last year, though he pitched to a disastrous 7.10 ERA (55 ERA+) in his 64 2/3 innings of work. Another option would be right-hander Cory Abbott, who was cut along with Adon but pitched 48 innings for the Nationals last year in a swing role that saw him start nine games.

Manager Davey Martinez has indicated he’s comfortable with the club’s existing rotation depth, even without Cavalli. That said, in the event the Nationals wish to look for additional rotation depth following Cavalli’s injury, the pickings are fairly slim on the free agent market at this point, with the likes of Chris Archer, Michael Pineda, and former National Anibal Sanchez among the remaining options.

The Opener: WBC, Diaz, Offseason In Review

By Nick Deeds | March 16, 2023 at 8:55am CDT

With just two weeks to go until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. WBC Update

The first round of the World Baseball Classic is officially in the books, with Cuba, Italy, Japan, Australia, Mexico, the United States, Venezuela, and Puerto Rico advancing to the quarterfinals, which have already begun. Cuba defeated Australia yesterday to advance to the semifinal round, while Japan advanced past Italy this morning. While no other matches will happen today, the other two quarterfinal matchups are now set, with Team Mexico squaring off against Team Puerto Rico tomorrow night while Team USA is set to take on Team Venezuela Saturday night. Of course, the biggest story of the WBC yesterday followed Puerto Rico’s upset victory that sent home the tournament favorites from the Dominican Republic.

2. Diaz Injury Update Incoming

That story is Edwin Diaz’s right knee injury, which he seemingly suffered during the celebration of Team Puerto Rico’s victory last night. The Mets announced last night that Diaz will undergo additional imaging today after receiving x-rays last night, meaning an update on Diaz could be coming as soon as later this morning. Until then, it’s unknown how much time Diaz will miss, though sources have told ESPN’s Jeff Passan that they fear Diaz is set to miss significant time. If Diaz misses significant time, that will obviously be a massive blow to the Mets’ bullpen, as Diaz is widely seen as the best closer in the entire sport.

3. Offseason in Review Chat Today

In conjunction with yesterday’s Reds Offseason in Review, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a Reds-centric live chat with readers today at 2pm CT. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will take you to the chat once it begins, or allow you to read the transcript once it’s complete. Be sure to check back throughout the day so you don’t miss Anthony’s chat!

Edwin Diaz Helped Off Field With Right Knee Injury

By Anthony Franco | March 15, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

Star reliever Edwin Díaz was carted off the field after tonight’s World Baseball Classic contest. The Mets closer threw a perfect inning to save Puerto Rico’s 5-2 win over the Dominican Republic and injured his right knee while the team celebrated its victory on the mound (video provided by Fox Sports MLB). The Mets announced he’s going for further imaging on Thursday.

Díaz was helped off the field by trainers without putting weight on his right leg. He was helped into a wheelchair and taken off the field in a surreal scene, one which turned from jubilation for the Puerto Rican players and fanbase into dismay. Players from both teams were visibly distraught by the injury, with Díaz’s younger brother Alexis Díaz breaking down in tears as Edwin was taken off the field.

Obviously, it’s far too soon to know the extent of the injury. Marly Rivera of ESPN tweets that Díaz was evaluated at the stadium by an on-site orthopedic specialist. Andy Martino of SNY tweets that he also went in for x-rays on Wednesday night.

Needless to say, a serious injury to Díaz would be a massive blow for the Mets. The 28-year-old righty is the sport’s best reliever. He’s coming off one of the greatest relief seasons in recent memory, throwing 62 innings of 1.31 ERA ball while striking out more than half his opponents. The Mets retained him this offseason on a five-year, $102MM contract days before the start of free agency. That marked the largest commitment to a relief pitcher in MLB history.

Astros Notes: Gurriel, McCullers, Bullpen

By Steve Adams | March 15, 2023 at 11:08pm CDT

As Yuli Gurriel’s free agency lingered into the late stages of the offseason, many Astros fans wondered whether there might be potential for a reunion between the two parties. Houston GM Dana Brown candidly acknowledged last month that while the organization loved Gurriel as both a person and a player, it would be difficult to get him at-bats with the current construction of the roster, however. Gurriel, who signed a minor league deal with the Marlins last week, spoke further about his former team’s interest — or lack thereof — in an interview with Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros, according to Gurriel, never made an offer for him to return for an eighth season.

The 38-year-old Gurriel told Young that “leaving my teammates behind after seven years is something that truly affects you” but added that he’s looking forward to starting a new chapter with a new club. The Astros, of course, signed Jose Abreu to a three-year contract early in the offseason, apparently deciding that it was simply time to move on from Gurriel after a down year in 2022.

The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma

By Steve Adams | March 15, 2023 at 9:17pm CDT

Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.

Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.

Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.

That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.

Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.

With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.

As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.

Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.

Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).

Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.

Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.

Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.

To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.

It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.

Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.

It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.

Jake Odorizzi To Begin Season On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | March 15, 2023 at 8:29pm CDT

Rangers manager Bruce Bochy informed reporters this afternoon that right-hander Jake Odorizzi will start the season on the injured list (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). General manager Chris Young had indicated last week that was a possibility, as Odorizzi has been delayed in camp by arm fatigue.

Acquired from the Braves at the start of the offseason, Odorizzi initially looked ticketed for a back-of-the-rotation spot in Arlington. The veteran hurler was squeezed out of the starting five by Texas’ subsequent moves, as the Rangers added each of Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi on multi-year free agent deals. With Martín Pérez returning via the qualifying offer to join Jon Gray, the Rangers go into the season with a high-upside starting five.

Each of deGrom, Heaney, Eovaldi and Gray has had recent red flags from a health perspective, however. No team goes through the same five starters through an entire season but the Rangers are taking on as much health risk from their rotation as any club. That makes depth of particular importance.

Odorizzi’s absence will deal an early hit to that group. It doesn’t seem there’s huge concern but Bochy told reporters the club would be “cautious” with his build-up. He has still yet to get into a Spring Training game. The club hasn’t provided much of a timetable for when he might get on the mound.

In the interim, Dane Dunning and Glenn Otto figure to move up a peg in the rotation hierarchy. Dunning is a solid sixth starter in his own right. He’s been a rotation fixture in Texas for two years, including 29 starts of 4.46 ERA ball with an excellent 53.3% ground-ball rate last season. He’s provided the club with serviceable back-of-the-rotation innings for consecutive seasons since being acquired from the White Sox for Lance Lynn. Otto has had a little tougher go at the MLB level, serving up a 4.64 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk rates through 135 2/3 innings last year.

Both Dunning and Otto have multiple minor league option years remaining. They can either continue to work as starters at Triple-A Round Rock or open the season in Arlington as long relief options. Grant writes that both deGrom and Eovaldi are expected to be on pitch limits early in the season — unsurprising caution for pitchers who each started camp a little slowly thanks to minor discomfort — so the ability to work multiple innings out of the bullpen could give Dunning or Otto a leg up on an Opening Day roster spot.

Phillies Dealing With Injuries To Pitching And Catching Depth

By Darragh McDonald | March 15, 2023 at 7:40pm CDT

The Phillies announced a batch of injuries to reporters, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic (Twitter links). Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez and right-hander Nick Nelson have both been shut down, due to triceps soreness and a moderate hamstring injury, respectively. Catcher Garrett Stubbs is headed for an MRI on his sore right knee while fellow backstop Rafael Marchán hasn’t played in eight days and can’t currently hit due to a bruised right hamate.

Sánchez, 26, has made just 22 major league appearances thus far in his career, but he notched a strong 3.14 ERA in Triple-A last year. He struck out 24.4% of batters faced at that level, walked just 8.4% and got grounders at a very strong 62% clip.

As of a few weeks ago, he wasn’t expected to be a key piece of the club’s rotation, but some recent developments have thinned out the club’s depth in that department. Andrew Painter has been shut down with a UCL sprain while Ranger Suárez has been dealing with some forearm tightness. Painter will be shut down for four weeks, taking him out of consideration for the Opening Day rotation. Suárez, meanwhile, has been throwing but it’s still unclear if he’ll be ready for the start of the season. Gelb also relays that the club is encouraged by his progress but his overall timelines are still murky.

The club should still have a strong front of their rotation, with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker taking three spots. Bailey Falter previously seemed like he would have to compete with Painter for a spot but that’s no longer the case, likely pushing him into the mix. The fifth spot could go to Suárez if he’s healthy enough to take it. If not, Sánchez would have been in the mix to jump in there but that’s probably not on the table any longer. The club hasn’t provided a timeline on his expected absence but the fact that he has been shut down from throwing with just two weeks until Opening Day isn’t encouraging.

If none of Painter, Suárez or Sánchez are available, the Phils have Michael Plassmeyer and James McArthur on their 40-man roster. Arthur has yet to reach Triple-A and only made 13 Double-A starts last year due to injury. Plassmeyer has two big league appearances and tossed 128 1/3 Triple-A innings last year with a 4.21 ERA.

In the case of Nelson, he was going to be in the mix for a job in the club’s bullpen. He tossed 68 2/3 innings for the club last year with a 4.85 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 11.8% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate. It doesn’t seem as though his injury is too severe, though he’s been shut down for the moment. As a reliever, he’ll have an easier time getting back into game shape than a starter like Sánchez.

In terms of the catching situation, those two ailments are noteworthy for the club since they have just three backstops on their 40-man roster. J.T. Realmuto has a lock on the starting job but the Phils will need a backup. Stubbs and Marchan would be the likely candidates for such a job, since they are the other two on the roster, but they are both question marks now due to these setbacks.

Stubbs, 30 in May, was acquired from the Astros prior to the 2022 campaign and ended up having a nice season as Realmuto’s backup. He got into 50 games and hit .264/.350/.462 for a wRC+ of 128. He was recently participating in the World Baseball Classic for Team Israel but departed when this knee issue popped up. Marchan, 24, only has 23 games of big league experience and was likely ticketed for more time in the minors behind Realmuto and Stubbs.

At this point, the path forward for both players is still unclear but there are concerns in both cases. Stubbs’ injury is significant enough to require an MRI while Marchan has already been out of action for over a week. Even if he suddenly heals up, he’ll need some time to get back into game shape. If the Phils eventually need someone else to step up and take on the backup job, they have a few catchers in camp as non-roster invitees, including Aramis Garcia and John Hicks.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

By Anthony Franco | March 15, 2023 at 6:40pm CDT

The Reds had another slow offseason, their second straight winter defined mostly by inactivity. It’s a rebuild in Cincinnati, with the upcoming season again more about evaluating the future than winning in the short term.

Major League Signings

RF Wil Myers: One year, $7.5MM (including buyout of 2024 mutual option)
C Curt Casali: One year, $3.25MM (including buyout of 2024 mutual option)
RHP Luke Weaver: One year, $2MM
C Luke Maile: One year, $1.175MM

2023 spending: $11.675MM
Total spending: $13.925MM

Option Decisions

Team declined $13MM option on LHP Mike Minor in favor of $1MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Acquired LF Nick Solak from Rangers for cash
Traded SS Kyle Farmer to Twins for minor league RHP Casey Legumina
Acquired SS Kevin Newman from Pirates for RHP Dauri Moreta
Acquired minor league RHP Jake Wong from Giants for Rule 5 draftee C Blake Sabol
Acquired CF Will Benson from Guardians for minor league OF Justin Boyd
Claimed LHP Bennett Sousa off waivers from White Sox

Notable Minor League Signings

Chase Anderson, Silvino Bracho, Alan Busenitz, Allan Cerda, Daniel Duarte, Tayron Guerrero, Kevin Herget, Derek Law, Ben Lively, Richie Martin, Nick Martini, Daniel Norris, Chad Pinder, Nick Plummer, Henry Ramos, Chuckie Robinson, Austin Romine, Jared Solomon, Hunter Strickland, Jason Vosler, Alex Young

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Farmer, Minor, Donovan Solano, Mike Moustakas (released), Aristides Aquino (non-tendered), Jeff Hoffman (non-tendered), Art Warren (non-tendered), Moreta, Kyle Dowdy (non-tendered), Justin Wilson

The Reds stripped things down over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling a team that had finished a few games off a Wild Card appearance. Payroll constraints led to a reboot of the roster, with a number of veterans shipped out for young talent either last winter or at the summer deadline. That teardown paired with brutal injury luck resulted in the second 100-loss season in franchise history.

It’s an organization now clearly amidst a rebuild. There was never much expectation for the Reds to do a whole lot this offseason, and general manager Nick Krall essentially confirmed as much before the winter got underway.

Unlike last winter, when the likes of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Jesse Winker and Sonny Gray were on the roster, Cincinnati didn’t go into this offseason with many obvious trade chips. The most apparent candidate was shortstop Kyle Farmer, who was headed into his second-to-last season of arbitration control. Farmer is a low-end regular at shortstop or high-quality utility piece who’d have modest appeal to a contender. Cincinnati indeed cashed him in for young talent.

It was a one-for-one swap with the Twins that brought back Double-A swingman Casey Legumina. The Gonzaga product had just been added to the Minnesota 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’ll start the season in the upper minors but could factor into the MLB mix later in the year.

Hours after trading away Farmer, Cincinnati backfilled at shortstop with another stopgap veteran. The Reds and division-rival Pirates aligned on a deal that brought in Kevin Newman for middle reliever Dauri Moreta. Newman is also in his penultimate arbitration season and broadly brings a similar profile to the departed Farmer: a contact-oriented offensive approach at the bottom of a lineup and solid glovework. Newman is a little more affordable and could be a midseason trade chip.

He steps into an infield that has a handful of players vying for reps. It’s unknown if Joey Votto will be ready for Opening Day after last summer’s rotator cuff surgery; once healthy, the former MVP will be back at first base. Jonathan India is looking for a bounceback year at second base.

Newman is the presumptive starting shortstop. Jose Barrero could also get one more look to see if he can piece things together offensively. Barrero was a fairly recent top prospect based on his power and defense. He’s coming off an atrocious season in both Triple-A and the big leagues, though, and the clock could be ticking for him to carve out a role. Elly De La Cruz has now firmly emerged as the likely shortstop of the future; he’ll start the year in the upper minors but could make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Third base also features a few talented but unproven players trying to cement themselves. Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins in last summer’s Mahle trade, made his debut last September. He struggled in his first 28 outings but had an excellent age-24 season in Triple-A. He’ll get the first crack at the hot corner, though there was plenty of buzz in Cincinnati camp regarding corner infield prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Also part of the Mahle trade package, Encarnacion-Strand mashed between High-A and Double-A last season. The Oklahoma State product tore the cover off the ball in Spring Training. Cincinnati reassigned him to minor league camp yesterday, taking him out of the running for an Opening Day roster spot, but he could push Steer for reps before long. That’s also true of Noelvi Marte, a power-hitting infield prospect brought back from the Mariners in the Castillo deal.

The Reds made a firm commitment to the infield youth movement when they released Mike Moustakas in early January. The three-time All-Star was headed into the final season of an ill-advised four-year, $64MM free agent deal. Moustakas had hit only .216/.300/.383 in just 654 plate appearances as a Red. His 2022 campaign was diminished by both underperformance and foot injuries. With little hope of another team taking any notable portion of the $22MM he was due this season, the Reds acknowledged the sunk cost and opened a clearer path to reps for younger players like Steer and Encarnacion-Strand.

Cincinnati should also have room on the bench for a non-roster Spring Training invitee or two. The Reds had arguably the best minor league signing of last winter with Brandon Drury, and they again leveraged their lack of certainty on the roster to bring in a swath of veterans on non-roster pacts. Chad Pinder, Henry Ramos and Jason Vosler are among the position players in camp, while Cincinnati brought in over 10 relievers with some level of MLB experience on minor league deals.

As with the left side of the infield, the outfield is up in the air for players to seize a job. Jake Fraley probably has the leg up on a corner spot after a solid second half. The Reds have maintained they’re going to give former top prospect Nick Senzel another crack in center field. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, so the likes of TJ Friedl and Stuart Fairchild could get on the roster.

The Reds rolled the dice on a pair of former top prospects to add to that mix. Their first move of the offseason was to bring in Nick Solak from the Rangers for cash. It was a no-risk flier on a player who has hit well in the upper minors but struggled to carry that over against MLB pitching. Solak doesn’t have a great positional fit — he struggled mightily at second base and is a fringy corner outfielder as well — but he’s a former second-round draftee who has a .293/.370/.510 line in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

While the Reds didn’t give up anything for Solak, they parted with last year’s second-rounder Justin Boyd to take a shot on 24-year-old Will Benson from the Guardians. A first-round pick in 2016, the 6’5″ Benson has moved extremely slowly up the minor league ranks thanks to huge strikeout totals. He’s shown as patient an approach as anyone in affiliated ball, however, and he clearly has raw power potential. While he’s taken some time to climb the ladder, he’s consistently fared better in his second crack at a level than during his first. That was particularly true last season in Triple-A, when Benson sliced his strikeout rate to a personal-best 22.7% en route to a .278/.426/.522 line.

In addition to those fliers on upside plays, the Reds added to the corner outfield in their biggest free agent move of the winter. Cincinnati guaranteed $7.5MM to Wil Myers on a one-year deal, giving him a chance to rebuild his stock in a hitter-friendly home ballpark. Myers had an up-and-down tenure in San Diego, hitting for power but struggling to make enough contact to be a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter. At age 32, he’s not a long-term core piece for Cincinnati. He’s a perfectly reasonable veteran addition to a young team, one who’d surely be in trade conversations this summer if he’s performing.

Myers is likely to see the bulk of his playing time in right field. That’s in large part because the club is planning to give young catcher Tyler Stephenson more time at designated hitter. The 26-year-old went on the injured list three times last season, all of which were related to incidents behind the plate. He was concussed in a collision with Luke Voit and both fractured his thumb and clavicle on foul tips. Those injuries were all fluky in nature, although there’s little doubt Stephenson will have a better chance of sticking in the lineup if he’s not donning the tools of ignorance as often.

Skipper David Bell told reporters at the start of Spring Training the Reds were aiming for Stephenson to play around 65 games at catcher and 80+ contests at first base/DH (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). With that in mind, Cincinnati added a pair of veteran backstops to take some of the workload. Northern Kentucky native Luke Maile signed a one-year, $1.175MM pact in November. He was joined by power-hitting veteran Curt Casali, who received $3.25MM in January to return to the Reds for a second stint.

The Reds didn’t do as much to augment the pitching staff, even on lower-cost pickups of the Maile/Casali ilk. The only such addition was right-hander Luke Weaver, who signed for $2MM after being non-tendered by the Mariners. Weaver is another former top prospect who showed some early-career success but has fallen on hard times of late. Great American Ball Park isn’t an ideal venue for a pitcher to try to rebuild value. That said, the Reds are likely to afford the 29-year-old another shot to get the ball every fifth day and take a crack at developing a breaking pitch he feels comfortable using regularly.

Weaver will step into the fourth spot in the season-opening rotation. The top three will go to second-year hurlers Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. All three have a chance to be core pieces of the next competitive Cincinnati team, with Greene and Lodolo former top ten picks and consensus top prospects. The final rotation spot is up for grabs this spring. Justin Dunn is out of the immediate mix thanks to shoulder issues. The likes of Connor Overton, Luis Cessa and minor league signee Chase Anderson are battling for the job. Prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could join the group over the summer.

Open competition is also the story of the bullpen. Cincinnati didn’t add any MLB veterans to a relief corps that was among the league’s worst. The only acquisitions were Legumina and waiver claim Bennett Sousa, both of whom could start the year in the minors. Cincinnati should welcome back Lucas Sims from an injury-plagued season. They’d hoped for the same with Tejay Antone but he suffered a forearm strain while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will start the year on the injured list.

Cincinnati has breakout reliever Alexis Díaz ticketed for ninth-inning work. One of the few bright spots of the 2022 campaign, the hard-throwing righty reportedly drew some trade interest over the winter which Cincinnati rebuffed. Sims and Buck Farmer should have high-leverage work and could be trade candidates this summer. The middle relief corps is wide open, with the likes of Silvino Bracho, Daniel Norris, Derek Law, Alex Young and Hunter Strickland trying to earn jobs in Spring Training.

Broadly speaking, the 2023 campaign will be about evaluating players for the future and identifying what veterans could be shipped off in the coming months. It’s hard to envision this team finishing higher than fourth in the National League Central. The Reds are near the lowest period of the rebuild, with most of the veteran players shipped away. They’ll continue to incorporate young talent as they look ahead to next offseason, one which could see a relative spike in activity.

Cincinnati doesn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract for 2024, with option buyouts for Votto, Moustakas, Myers and Casali representing the only firm commitments. The slate is almost clean for the front office to chart a new path back to contention. In the interim, the fanbase is in for another losing season.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Reds on March 16. Click here to view the transcript.

(poll link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Reds' Offseason?

D 38% (796)
F 30% (634)
C 24% (501)
B 6% (125)
A 3% (61)

Total votes: 2,117

Rays Acquire Victor Castaneda As PTBNL From Javy Guerra Trade

By Darragh McDonald | March 15, 2023 at 5:40pm CDT

The Rays have acquired right-hander Victor Castaneda from the Brewers as the player to be named later from the November trade that sent fellow righty Javy Guerra to the Brewers, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Castaneda, 24, was an international amateur signed by the Brewers out of Mexico in 2017. He’s worked his way up the minor league ladder since then, serving primarily as a starter. Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 120 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. He struck out 22.5% of batters faced in that time while walking 9.9%. Based on his strong work in the minors, Castaneda was considered one of the top 30 prospects in the Brewers’ system in the past two years by both Baseball America and FanGraphs.

If the Rays continue to deploy Castaneda as a starter, he’ll provide some depth to a rotation that’s dealing with a few injuries. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and might miss the entire season, while Tyler Glasnow has a strained oblique that will force him to miss the start of the campaign. The rotation is still in good shape overall with Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Zach Eflin and Jeffrey Springs taking four spots. They also have Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos, Josh Fleming and Taj Bradley on the 40-man roster as options to fill in. Castaneda isn’t currently on the 40-man and would need to earn a spot in order to make an impact.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | March 15, 2023 at 4:54pm CDT

Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.

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