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Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former Yankees Pitcher Humberto Sanchez

By Tim Dierkes | February 13, 2023 at 9:55am CDT

If you were a diehard Yankees fan or prospect watcher about 15 years ago, you likely know the name Humberto Sanchez. A native of the Bronx, Sanchez was a 31st round pick by the Tigers in 2001, signing for $1MM as a draft-and-follow. Sanchez started for the World Team in the Futures Game in 2006, and in November he became the key piece in the trade that saw the Yankees send Gary Sheffield to the Tigers.

Before the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Sanchez the 57th-best prospect in baseball, calling him “the young power arm New York lacked in Triple-A.” However, by April of 2007, Sanchez needed Tommy John surgery. Yankees GM Brian Cashman said, “I knew there was a chance [his elbow] needed to be fixed. But we looked at it long term and in 12 months we will have him back.” As it turned out, Sanchez would need a second procedure six months later, extending his recovery timeline.

17 months after the initial Tommy John surgery, Sanchez made it to The Show. He told Sean Brennan of the New York Daily News, “When you have surgery, it feels like your dream has died. After surgery you’re thinking your career is pretty much in jeopardy and (getting the call) seems out of reach. You don’t know if you’re going to come back.” Sanchez made his MLB debut at Yankee Stadium, entering in the top of the eighth with his team ahead by eight runs. He pitched a scoreless inning, striking out Paul Phillips and getting Jerry Owens and Jim Thome to ground out.

Sanchez entered another game out of the Yankees’ bullpen a week later. Though no one knew it at the time, Sanchez had thrown his last Major League pitch at the age of 25. He battled forearm tightness the following year, and the Yankees released him in April ’09. He re-signed on a minor league deal and picked up 35 2/3 innings across various minor league affiliates. Sanchez went on to pitch in the Chinese Professional Baseball League, later pitching in the Mexican and independent leagues. Facing eight batters was not the MLB career Sanchez or anyone else envisioned, but it can be a brutal game and at least he can say he pitched in the Majors.

For the past four years, Sanchez worked as a pitching coach for the Dominican Summer League Red Sox. At present, he’s preparing to start a logistics venture with his brother. You can find him on Instagram @Humbe528. Humberto chatted with MLBTR readers today, talking about his experience playing alongside Yankees legends, what his MLB debut felt like, what it was like being traded, and much more. Read the full transcript here.

If you’re a current or former MLB player and you’d like to chat with MLBTR readers, contact us here. It’s fun and easy, and you get to choose which questions you publish and answer.

MLB, MLBPA Discussing Rule Change Regarding Position Players Pitching

By Darragh McDonald | February 13, 2023 at 9:30am CDT

The 2023 Major League Baseball season will feature the implementation of several rule changes, including a pitch clock, limits on defensive shifts and bigger bases. There might be one more change coming, with Jesse Rogers of ESPN reporting that a change to the rules on position players pitching is being discussed by the league and the players.

Teams will occasionally put a position player on the mound when the result of a game already seems determined in a large blowout. The decision is usually about not using an actual member of the pitching staff in a game that where the odds of changing the outcome are extremely low, thus sparing them the extra usage.

However, it was thought by many that the sight was becoming far too common and rules were implemented to limit its usage. Going into the 2020 season, each player was designated as either a pitcher, position player or two-way player. To earn two-way status, the player had to pitch at least 20 innings and start at least 20 games as either a position player or designated hitter, in either the current season or the previous one. Position players were only allowed to take the mound in certain situations, if their team was winning or losing by at least six runs, or if the game went to extra innings.

Rogers reports that the rule hasn’t worked, with the problem actually becoming worse, with 32 instances of position players pitching in 2017 but 132 times last year. The league and the players both reportedly agree that it’s happening far too often, with the players also concerned about how the statistics affect arbitration and free agency, and they are talking about changing those existing rules. The change would see the limits stretched so that a team that’s winning a game would have to be ahead by 10 runs, whereas the trailing team would have to be down by at least eight.

The Opener: Signings, FA Market, Astros

By Nick Deeds | February 13, 2023 at 8:16am CDT

With football season now in the rear-view mirror, it’s finally time for baseball season! Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Signings to be made official:

A flurry of signings were reported over the weekend that have yet to be made official: Michael Fulmer signed with the Cubs, David Peralta and Alex Reyes both landed with the Dodgers, while Andrew Chafin returned to the Diamondbacks. As with any not-yet official signings, a 40-man roster move will be necessary to accommodate each of these players. The Cubs and Dodgers both have a handful of players who could move to the 60-day IL once Spring Training gets underway this week, thus clearing 40-man spots for Fulmer, Peralta, and Reyes, but the Diamondbacks lack a clear candidate for such a roster move, meaning they’ll like need to clear roster space some other way.

2. FA market heating back up:

The free agent market had entered a bit of a lull in recent weeks, with signings becoming increasingly sparing despite several strong players left on the market clearly deserving of big league deals. That dam seems to have finally broken over the weekend with the signings of Fulmer, Peralta, Reyes, and Chafin. Could more deals be on the way, with Spring Training just around the corner? There’s a variety of quality free agents still available who could impact a club: Jurickson Profar and Michael Wacha, the last remaining of free agents from MLBTR’s Top 50 earlier this offseason, highlight the group, but others such as Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Moore are all interesting players who should be able to find a big league job somewhere before Opening Day as well.

3. Will the Astros keep going with Javier extended?

Over the weekend, the Astros managed to extend starting pitcher and 2022 World Series hero Cristian Javier on a five-year deal that covered three arbitration years and bought out a pair of free agent years. This came as no surprise, seeing as newly-installed GM Dana Brown stated publicly that he was focused on extending members of the core that just brought last year’s World Series trophy to Houston. In addition to Javier, Brown name-dropped Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman as players he’s hoping to have extension conversations with. Recently, Tucker lost his arbitration case against the Astros for his 2023 salary, leaving him with a lower platform salary than he was hoping for as he proceeds through the rest of his arbitration years. An extension, of course, could change that situation entirely, and it’s possible the baseline for Tucker’s arb years being set could make extension talks go a little easier. Altuve and Bregman are both under team control through 2024, but Brown and agent Scott Boras have reportedly been in contact about extensions nonetheless.

Who’s Blocking Jordan Walker?

By Darragh McDonald | February 12, 2023 at 11:01pm CDT

The Cardinals selected Jordan Walker with the 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft. Since then, he’s been charging hard towards the majors, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists.

In 2021, he made his professional debut, splitting his time between Class-A and High-A. In 82 games between those two levels, he hit 14 home runs and stole 14 bases, leading to an excellent .317/.388/.548 batting line and a 151 wRC+. He moved up to Double-A for 2022 and kept it rolling, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 22 bases in 119 games. His .306/.388/.510 batting line led to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than average. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and hit .286/.367/.558 over 21 games there.

Now Walker is considered one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each have him at #4, Keith Law of The Athletic at #5, FanGraphs at #8 and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN at #14. Since Walker has little left to prove at Double-A, he’ll likely be in Triple-A to start 2023, potentially jumping to the majors at any point.

Walker has primarily been a third baseman in his career thus far, as that was the only position he played in 2021. However, an Nolan Arenado-shaped obstacle is stopping him from seeing much time at the hot corner in the big leagues, so the club has started giving Walker some outfield reps. Walker made 68 starts at third in Double-A last year but also 30 in the outfield (24 of those in right). In the fall league, all 21 of his starts were on the grass, with twelve in right field. Prospect evaluators have suggested he is adjusting well to the move, with his strong arm and athleticism likely to help him serve as an above-average defender in the outfield.

As long as Arenado is healthy, Walker will be looking to crack the Cardinals as an outfielder. As of right now, the club’s likely starters out there would be Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar, with Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Moisés Gómez also on the 40-man roster.

O’Neill, 28 in June, is coming off a frustrating season but was tremendous the year before. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. His outfield defense was graded well by all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average, with all that leading to 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve. Unfortunately, he made multiple trips to the injured list last year, due to a shoulder impingement and hamstring strain. He only got into 96 games and had diminished results when playing, hitting .228/.308/.392 for a wRC+ of 101.

It’s a somewhat similar trajectory for the 24-year-old Carlson. He hit 18 home runs in 2021 and batted .266/.343/.437 for a wRC+ of 113, but slipped to eight homers and a .236/.316/.380 line last year for a wRC+ of 100. He also went to the IL a couple of times, though he still played 128 games on the year. However, he got strong grades for his work in center field, with 6 DRS, 3 OAA and 1.8 UZR last year in just 530 innings. He seems to be the favorite to take over up the middle with Harrison Bader now a Yankee, though O’Neill and Nootbaar can both also play there.

Nootbaar, 25, hasn’t really had a full season as a big leaguer yet, as he was optioned to the minors three times last year. However, he seemed to take off after his final recall in mid-July. From that point on, he walked in an excellent 16.7% of his trips to the plate, just barely trailing his 17.1% strikeout rate. He hit 11 home runs in that stretch and slashed .240/.367/.490 as part of the second half surge.

Yepez, 25 next week, is more of a corner infielder who can play one of the outfield corners from time to time. His work on the grass hasn’t been graded well and he likely won’t be an everyday option. However, his potent bat will be in the mix for time as the designated hitter, which could still have an impact on Walker’s path to the bigs. Yepez hit 12 home runs in a 76-game debut last year, leading to a batting line of .253/.296/.447 and a wRC+ of 109. Burleson, 24, is somewhat similar, as his bat is considered a stronger part of his game than his defense. He didn’t hit much in his 16-game debut last year but his Triple-A batting line was .331/.372/.532 thanks to launching 20 homers. Gómez, 24, has yet to make his MLB debut but got himself a spot on the 40-man after a strong 2022. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .294/.371/.624 for a wRC+ of 149.

Out of all of these players, the only one to have qualified for arbitration so far is O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he’s not slated to reach free agency until after 2024. The others still have many years of affordable control. Once Walker is deemed ready for a move to the big leagues, the outfield could start to get crowded in St. Louis. He seems to be headed towards right field as his predominant position, where he could line up with Carlson in center and O’Neill in left most of the time. That would bump Nootbaar into a fourth outfielder/designated hitter role, which he might be overqualified for if his second half results last year are anywhere close to legit. Perhaps the Cards would think about trading O’Neill next winter, when he has hopefully had a bounceback season in 2023 and will be just one year removed from free agency. That would free up left field for Nootbaar or one of the other young guys.

All of this is contingent on everyone being healthy, of course, as even a single injury could unclog the situation in a hurry. But there’s a lot of talent here for the Cards, as their player development pipeline seems to churn out quality big leaguers at an incredible rate. However, even top prospects don’t always find immediate success in the big leagues. Walker has yet to even reach Triple-A, so some more patience might be required, though it feels fairly inevitable that the Cards will be able to work from an outfield surplus again at some point, even though they just traded Bader at last year’s deadline.

AL Notes: Mahomes, Haggerty, Vogt, Rays

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2023 at 10:21pm CDT

Patrick Mahomes’ ties to baseball are well known, as the NFL superstar is the son of longtime big league reliever Pat Mahomes. However, the future Chiefs quarterback was himself a standout high school baseball player, and was even a 37th-round pick for the Tigers in the 2014 draft. As Tigers scout Tim Grieve told 12Up’s Mark Powell in an interview in 2020, there was no doubt Mahomes was going to play college football at Texas Tech, but the Tigers figured “let’s be that team that started to build the relationship so that if he wants to play baseball 2-4 years down the road, we’ve got our foot in the door.”

Mahomes would likely have been picked in the third or fourth round of the MLB draft if he hadn’t been committed to football, and his father initially felt baseball might be his son’s sport. “He was going to get drafted as an outfielder, and I have no doubt he would’ve made it and been successful,” the elder Mahomes told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this week. “He loved baseball. But when he went out for football, and saw all of the nuances and things you had to learn to be a quarterback, I think it really intrigued him to see what he could do.” Speaking to Patrick Mahomes’ overall athletic ability, his godfather LaTroy Hawkins thought basketball would end up being his sport of choice.

Now that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to another Super Bowl title, the sports world can turn its attention to the start of Spring Training this week. Since every season is baseball season here at MLBTR, here are some notes from around the American League…

“There are indications” that Mariners utilityman Sam Haggerty had to undergo surgery to fix a grade 2 adductor strain suffered at the end of last season, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes. The team hasn’t officially confirmed Haggerty’s status, and GM Jerry Dipoto that Haggerty is “a little behind” in his offseason work. However, Dipoto also noted that Haggerty has started full baseball activity and has “been hitting for quite some time. So he’s in a good place.” In his fourth MLB season, Haggerty got an extended look in a utility role with Seattle last season and delivered, hitting .256/.335/.403 (good for a 114 wRC+) over 201 plate appearances while playing in the field at second base and all three outfield spots. Haggerty looks to continue to play a key role on the Mariners’ bench this season, especially since fellow utilityman Dylan Moore might be a little more impacted during camp while recovering from core surgery.
Stephen Vogt weighed two other “serious baseball job offers” before becoming the Mariners’ new bullpen and quality control coach in January. As Vogt told NBC Sports Bay Area’s Brodie Brazil, “the Mariners were the best situation, the best offer, and being close to home — we did the best we could to make it not be a factor in our decision making. The cherry on top is that I get to be with my family more in a season than I ever have.” 2022 was the last of Vogt’s 10 Major League seasons, and given that he has long been considered a future managerial candidate, it isn’t surprising that several teams were interested in being the first stop in Vogt’s post-playing career.
After a pretty quiet winter on the transactional front, the Rays are now viewing their slower offseason as an opportunity for their core players to enjoy some relatively rare stability, given how Tampa so often shuffles up its roster. “Generally, we’re always trying to build that next year’s team to be as strong as we possibly can,” general manager Peter Bendix told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “And this year, that led to us having this continuity and banking on some of this continuity, allowing our young players to grow and develop together and see if we can kind of gain from the experience that they’ve had up until this point.” The Rays did part ways with several players in trades, free agency, or non-tenders, yet most of those holes were filled internally. As Topkin notes, Zach Eflin (signed to a three-year, $40MM contract) and Rule 5 Draft selection Kevin Kelly are the only new players on Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster. Of course, there is still plenty of time in the offseason for the Rays to make some more additions, plus one of the team’s many non-roster invitees could win a job in Spring Training.

NL West Notes: Padres, Rockies, Tovar, Giants

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2023 at 9:00pm CDT

By the 2024 season, the Padres are projected to join the list of teams who pay into Major League Baseball’s revenue-sharing fund, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. The list of revenue-sharing payors is mostly comprised by teams in large markets, and though San Diego is only 26th of 30 teams in terms of market size, the Padres’ huge payroll increase over the last few seasons is likely to change their status, based on projected revenues for the 2023 season. Exact details of the Padres’ spending isn’t known, but the increase in spending has correlating with an increase in sponsorship money and ticket sales at Petco Park.

The huge payrolls aren’t likely to last forever, as Padres CEO Erik Greupner said that “to get to that optimal state in our market, it is going to require a greater contribution coming from our farm system,” so the front office doesn’t have to keep building talent with high-priced acquisitions. But that said, Gruepner noted that “The ultimate validation involves winning a World Series championship. So (increasing revenue to this level) is validation insofar as the investment in the team and the investment in the ballpark and the ballpark experience is yielding increased revenue….We’re in the process of making hay while the sun is out to get the very most out of the team that we’re going to have on the field this year and the excitement around it.”

Poll: Who Signs First, Jurickson Profar Or Michael Wacha?

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2023 at 7:20pm CDT

Essentially from the moment MLB Trade Rumors published our annual top 50 free agents list, players immediately started flying off the board. While the last few non-lockout offseasons saw a slowed free agent market, many of the biggest names of the 2022-23 class had already found new teams by the start of January…give or take Carlos Correa’s three-team saga, of course. Now that Andrew Chafin has agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks, only two players from that top-50 listing remain unsigned as Spring Training dawns: Jurickson Profar (ranked 33rd) and Michael Wacha (41st).

Profar voluntarily chose to test the open market, as he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres. Entering the third and final year of that deal, Profar took a $1MM buyout rather than the $7.5MM owed to him in 2023, thus making a $6.5MM bet that he could find a longer-term and more lucrative deal in free agency. MLBTR agreed, projecting Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal.

Such a contract has yet to emerge for Profar, despite plenty of interest. The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers, and Orioles have all been linked to Profar at various points this offseason, though Houston and Boston have seemingly already addressed needs in left field. The other reported suitors have somewhat clearer needs in left field, even if in-house options abound for all four teams. Other factors may also be at play for particular teams — for example, the Yankees are very close to surpassing the top luxury tax threshold ($293MM), and reportedly don’t want to hit that highest penalty line.

As Profar approaches his 30th birthday, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever live up to his former top-prospect status, yet he provided solid numbers in three of the last five seasons. Of course, that isn’t the most consistent track record, and Profar’s .241/.326/.403 slash line over 2384 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season works out to a barely above-average 101 wRC+. While Profar had 110 wRC+ in 2022 and his 2.5 fWAR was the best of his career, this recent performance might not be enough to overcome a perception that is only a “good” player, and teams may not be willing to give a multi-year deal for just “good” (and somewhat unpredictable) performance going forward.

It can be assumed that Profar is at least looking to top that $6.5MM salary he left on the table in San Diego, but his current contract demands are unknown. It could be that Profar is open to a one-year contract — or one guaranteed year with an option for 2024 — at an average annual value slightly higher than $6.5MM, so he can at least recoup that money and then test the market again next winter. Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is well-known both for waiting until deep into an offseason to find an acceptable deal for his clients, and for coming up with creative contracts that include flexibility for both the player and the team.

There is a bit more information about Wacha’s demands, since as of two weeks ago, the right-hander and his reps at CAA Sports were reportedly looking for a two-year contract in the range of $30MM. This is well above the two-year, $16MM deal that MLBTR projected for Wacha’s next deal, though prices for starting pitchers have mostly skyrocketed this winter.

The Orioles, Twins, and Angels have all reportedly had interest in Wacha this offseason, though Minnesota’s trade for Pablo Lopez might have sealed up the last spot in the rotation. For Baltimore, Wacha has been on the Orioles’ radar both before and after their signing of Kyle Gibson, a similar veteran arm meant to provide innings and experience within the young O’s rotation. The Angels were the most recent of the three clubs to check in (in early February), and while Los Angeles has already signed Tyler Anderson to bolster the starter ranks, the Angels need a particular amount of depth given their likely deployment of a six-man rotation.

As with Profar, Wacha might fit into that “good but not great” category due to a lack of consistency. After posting shaky results from 2019-21, Wacha seemingly got back on track by posting a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2022. The righty did a good job of limiting hard contact and he continued his recent trend of limiting walks, but the rest of his Statcast sheet wasn’t overly impressive, including a 20.2% strikeout rate that was well below league average. Wacha also spent about seven weeks on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, which is of particular concern given his past history of shoulder injuries.

Despite these drawbacks, Wacha’s market is boosted by the simple cliche of “you can never have enough pitching.” Teams with seemingly full rotations might prefer to sign Wacha and push a younger arm further down the depth chart, or it is quite possible a new club might emerge as a suitor should a pitching injury arise during Spring Training. That same logic also extends to Profar, as a team’s outfield plans might suddenly be altered if a lineup regular gets hurt.

Which of these free agents do you think will be the next to sign?

(poll link for app users)

Which Player Will Sign First?

Michael Wacha 61.98% (3,533 votes)

Jurickson Profar 38.02% (2,167 votes)

Total Votes: 5,700

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2023 at 5:46pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of today’s live baseball chat

Which Starters Should The Cardinals Extend?

By Nick Deeds | February 12, 2023 at 3:04pm CDT

The mass exodus facing the Cardinals rotation at the end of the 2023 season is well-documented at this point. Longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright is set to follow in the footsteps of his longtime battery-mate Yadier Molina and retire following the end of the 2023 season, while each of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are set to depart the club as free agents. If none of that group is extended, right-hander Dakota Hudson will be the only pitcher to make more than ten starts with the Cardinals in 2022 and remain with the club in 2024, though lefty Steven Matz is also under contract through the 2025 season and youngster Andre Pallante impressed in ten starts last season.

The 2023-2024 free agent class figures to be exceptional deep in quality rotation options, even for clubs who won’t be part of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Still, it seems reasonable to expect extensions, such as the one Yu Darvish signed with the Padres last week, to continue thinning the herd throughout Spring Training and into the regular season. For a Cardinals club that’s attempting to make the most of the remaining prime years for superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, going into the offseason with three or more slots in the rotation to fill would put an enormous amount of pressure on the front office. As such, it’s no wonder that the organization is reportedly planning to have extension conversations with at least two of their starting pitchers this spring.

The clearest choice for the Cardinals to pursue an extension with would be Mikolas, who reportedly is open to extending with the club this spring. Even entering his age-34 season, there’s every reason to expect Mikolas to be durable going forward; though he missed the entirety of the 2020 season and much of the 2021 season due to surgery, since joining the Cardinals ahead of the 2018 season he has pitched more than 180 innings in each of his three seasons unaffected by that surgery, including inning counts over 200 innings in 2018 and 2022. On top of that, Mikolas has proven to be an effective mid-rotation option whenever he is on the mound, with a 3.46 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.84 FIP in 631 2/3 innings as a member of the Cardinals.

Furthermore, despite his age and workhorse tendencies, the mileage on his arm is still fairly low: Mikolas has just 1,561 professional innings under his belt between the majors, minors, and his time overseas. That’s more than a thousand innings less than similarly aged hurlers such as Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw, and just a tad under the 1,746 1/3 professional innings Aaron Nola has under his belt headed into his age-30 season. Given Mikolas’s combination of effectiveness, durability, low mileage on his arm, and comfort with the club (he already extended with the team once, ahead of the 2019 season), it’s no wonder that Mikolas appears to be one of the starters the Cardinals are seeking to continue their partnership with.

What of the other options, though? Surely, if Wainwright changes his mind and decides to continue pitching in 2024, the lifelong Cardinal would be continuing his career in St. Louis. All signs point to him hanging them up this fall after the conclusion of his age-41 season, however, leaving two pending free agents in the Cardinals rotation for them to consider extending: Flaherty and Montgomery. Flaherty is the younger of the two, set to pitch in 2023 at age 27 while Montgomery celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this offseason. Both players have dealt with injury woes in their careers, though Flaherty’s are more recent, having spanned the 2020-2022 seasons. Montgomery’s struggles from 2018-2020, by contrast, have since been followed up by a pair of quality, healthy seasons.

Montgomery has also shown more consistency throughout his career; when healthy, he has reliably been good for around 150 innings of 10-15% better than league average baseball. Flaherty, on the other hand, has two exceptional seasons under his belt in 2018 and 2019 where he combined for a 3.01 ERA, 35% better than league average, while finishing top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 and Cy Young award voting in 2019. Outside of those two seasons, however, he has just 176 career innings at the major league level under his belt, and the results of those innings leave much to be desired: a 4.19 ERA and more than a strikeout less per nine innings than his peak years.

One can rightfully argue that Flaherty, so long as he can get healthy, projects to be better than Montgomery going forward. Montgomery’s fastball velocity in 2022 clocked in just below that of Flaherty despite the fact that Montgomery was enjoying a career high while Flaherty’s velocity was at an all-time low. Flaherty’s camp will surely make that argument, and with such a considerable gap between Flaherty’s potential and his current results, it’s fair to wonder how feasible it is for the two sides to come together on an extension they both find mutually agreeable, particularly when a big season from Flaherty in 2023 could cement him among the top starters on next offseason’s free agent market. Flaherty seems, perhaps, particularly unlikely to take much of a discount given he forced St. Louis to renew his contract ahead of both the 2019 and 2020 seasons rather than agree to a pre-arbitration salary, calling it a matter of “principle.”

The Cardinals have no such contentious history of negotiations with Montgomery, whom they acquired at the trade deadline last season in a deal that sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees. Montgomery pitched extremely well down the stretch for St. Louis last season, racking up 63 2/3 innings that were good for a 3.11 ERA (123 ERA+) and a 3.08 FIP. While Montgomery’s potential is far from that of Flaherty, that dominant stretch to end the 2022 season could indicate that there is still upside yet to be tapped into for the left-hander. Furthermore, despite not being a member of the organization for very long, that hasn’t stopped this Cardinals front office in the past. After all, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is the one who signed Goldschmidt to an extension prior to the 2019 season before the slugger had ever played a regular season game in a Cardinals uniform.

Financially speaking, the Cardinals have plenty of room to maneuver under the luxury tax going forward. The club’s estimated luxury tax payroll for 2024 according to Roster Resource is just over $106MM, down from $199MM in 2023. Granted, that 2024 figure does not include arbitration salaries for 2024. In 2023, arbitration salaries are adding $36.5MM to the luxury tax ledger in St. Louis- even if that figure repeats, the club would have nearly $60MM to play with before reaching their 2023 payroll level, and over $90MM before reaching the first luxury tax threshold. That should leave them Mozeliak’s front office plenty of room to add or extend starters ahead of the 2024 season.

For players between five and six years of service time, as Flaherty and Montgomery both are, three recent extensions have taken place: the seven-year, $131MM deal Jose Berrios signed with the Blue Jays last offseason, the five-year, $100MM deal Joe Musgrove signed with the Padres last summer, and the five-year, $85MM deal Lance McCullers Jr. signed with the Astros ahead of the 2021 season. Berrios stands as something of a clear outlier among the other two, while Joe Musgrove has been a more effective starter than Montgomery and a more consistent starter than Flaherty. As such, McCullers seems to be the most appropriate comp for our purposes.

McCullers and Montgomery both are solid mid-rotation starters when healthy, and though McCullers was just about to begin his age-27 season when he signed his extension, making him three years younger than Montgomery is now, he was coming off far more recent injury troubles than Montgomery was while having never pitched even 130 innings in a season of his career. The $85MM figure also compares reasonably to the mid-rotation market this past offseason, which each of Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker securing between $63MM and $72MM and Montgomery having an argument as a safer bet than any of them.

Flaherty, on the other hand, seems less likely to find that sort of deal appropriate. Following an offseason that saw the likes of Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom secure well over $100MM despite injury concerns, it’s reasonable to think that Flaherty could do the same with relative ease should he have a bounceback year in 2023, particularly given his youth. Additionally, the market was rather kind to even oft-injured bounceback types such as Andrew Heaney this offseason. Even if Flaherty struggles again in 2023, he could search for a two-year deal with an opt-out as Heaney did to rebuild his value and hit the market a second time before his age-30 season.

Given all of this, it seems unlikely he would settle for much less than the $100MM Musgrove received, and it seems even more unlikely the Cardinals would make such a risky investment at this point, even with their significant concerns about the future of their rotation. Taken together, it seems that if the Cardinals are going to look to lock up some of the members of their rotation before season’s end, they’d be better off looking toward Mikolas and Montgomery than Flaherty, even despite all the tantalizing talent he brings to the table.

NL Notes: Cardinals, Doolittle, Colome

By Nick Deeds | February 12, 2023 at 1:06pm CDT

The Cardinals are receiving positive signs about their rotation for 2023, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the club has “rising optimism” regarding the health of right-hander Jack Flaherty ahead of Spring Training.

Flaherty was once among the brightest talents on the St. Louis roster, as he placed in the top 4 of Cy Young voting in 2019 after a campaign that saw him post a 2.75 ERA (152 ERA+) over 196 1/3 innings, while also leading the NL in WHIP. Since then, however, Flaherty has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness; he struggled badly in the shortened 2020 season to the tune of a 4.91 ERA (86 ERA+) in 40 1/3 innings, and his battles with shoulder injuries in recent years have led him to make just 12 starts from the second half of the 2021 season onward.

If Flaherty is indeed healthy, Goold notes that he could transform the look of a Cardinals rotation that’s full of solid arms but lacking in terms of ace-caliber talent. When he’s taken the mound in recent years, Flaherty has lost a tick of velocity on his pitches across the board, though it’s possible that better health could see him get back up to averaging just over 94 mph on his fastball as he did in 2019.

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