The Opener: Prospect Debuts, Seager, MLBTR Chat
As the MLB season continues to move swiftly along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Prospects set to make MLB debuts:
The big news of the prospecting world is that top Rays pitching prospect Taj Bradley is expected to make his MLB debut today in a start against the Red Sox. The Rays, of course, have opened the season on a historic tear, winning their first eleven games in a row. Bradley will be tasked with preserving that win streak against Chris Sale tonight at 5:40pm CT. Bradley has a 2.66 ERA in 317 2/3 minor league innings of work, including at 3.82 ERA in 82 innings of work at the Triple-A level. He currently ranks as the game’s No. 42 prospect at Baseball America.
Looking beyond Bradley, two AL Central prospects could make their MLB debuts today. The Twins are set to call up top infield prospect Edouard Julien to replace Joey Gallo on the active roster ahead of their 12:10pm CT game against the White Sox this afternoon. Julien, BA’s No. 97 overall prospect, has a phenomenal .437 OBP in the minors to this point in his career, fueled by a 20.2% walk rate. He’s opened the season with a .290/.421/.548 slash and a pair of homers in his first 38 plate appearances with Triple-A St. Paul.
Meanwhile, Guardians right-hander Peyton Battenfield is slated to start this afternoon’s game against the Yankees and righty Clarke Schmidt at 12:10pm CT. Battenfield isn’t considered one of the organization’s premier prospects, but he was very solid in 28 Triple-A starts last year, posting a 3.63 ERA with a 17% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 8.9%.
2. Seager update expected today:
Rangers shortstop Corey Seager left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness, and manager Bruce Bochy said the team expects to know more about the severity of Seager’s injury and his potential timetable for return today. The Rangers’ star was off to a hot start to open the season, slashing .359/.469/.538. Ezequiel Duran and Josh H. Smith are among the potential options to fill in at shortstop for the Rangers if Seager misses any time. Marcus Semien has spent the bulk of his career at shortstop, but Bochy said last night that he’d likely keep Semien at second base should Seager be sidelined (Twitter link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News).
3. MLBTR Chat:
Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about your favorite team or the league as a whole in the early going of the season, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat this evening. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in and participate live once the chat begins.
In addition, the second episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast is now available! MLBTR’s Simon Hampton hosts MLBTR’s Steve Adams as they answer listener questions and discuss the undefeated Rays, recent prospect promotions, and the Angels’ bullpen. You can listen to today’s episode on Spotify or Apple Podcast.
Rays Promote Taj Bradley, Place Zach Eflin On IL
The Rays have placed right-hander Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness, per broadcaster Neil Solondz. Pitching prospect Taj Bradley has been recalled to take his place and will make his major league debut on Wednesday. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times previously reported that these moves were imminent. Eflin’s IL placement is backdated to April 8, per Topkin.
Bradley, 22, was selected by the club in the fifth round of the 2018 draft. Since that time, he has continued to impress on the farm, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists. He pitched in Rookie Ball in 2018 and 2019, but then saw the minor leagues canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He split the following season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, throwing 103 1/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Last year, he went through Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 133 1/3 frames with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 26.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.2%.
Bradley is currently considered the #42 prospect in the game by Baseball America, #18 by MLB Pipeline, #60 by ESPN, #52 by Keith Law of The Athletic and #37 by FanGraphs. He was eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December but the Rays made the easy decision to add him to their 40-man roster to prevent him from being selected. That means he already has a roster spot but he’ll be making his MLB debut tomorrow.
The Rays are off to an incredible 10-0 start here this season, with their pitching playing a large role in that. They’ve only allowed 18 runs in those 10 games, easily the fewest in baseball with the Brewers next on the list at 26. Tampa’s schedule has been on the weaker side thus far, with their first nine games coming against the Tigers, Nationals and A’s, three of the worst teams last year. Nonetheless, they’ve gotten great results from their rotation, even with Shane Baz recovering from Tommy John surgery and Tyler Glasnow on the IL with an oblique strain. Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Eflin have all been great so far this season. Josh Fleming got roughed up in his first start but tossed four scoreless innings behind an opener in his second appearance.
Bradley will now check into that group for Eflin, at least for the time being. Solondz relays that manager Kevin Cash and Eflin both expect the latter to have a minimal stay on the IL, which would mean he’d only miss a couple of starts. The righty hasn’t exactly been a paragon of health in his career, as recurring knee issues have limited his workload over the years. He’s only once thrown 130 innings in a season, which was the 163 1/3 frames he tossed in 2019. He tells Topkin that he’s dealt with this back issue in the past and isn’t too concerned.
If those expectations come to pass and Eflin returns in a couple weeks, then it’s possible Bradley gets sent back down to Triple-A. That will likely depend on his performance, as well as that of Fleming and the health of the entire crew. There’s also the return of Glasnow on the horizon, which seems to potentially be slated for mid-May.
If it ends up coming to pass that Bradley sticks with the big league club for the rest of the season, he will be able to earn a full year of service time, just barely. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs only to spend 172 of those in the majors, or on the injured list, in order to earn a full “year” of service time. Bradley has missed 12 days of the season thus far, giving him just enough time to creep over the one-year line, though getting optioned later in the year will obviously impact that trajectory.
In the event he does get that full year, he will be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. As part of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, if a player has less than 60 days of service time and is on two out of the three top 100 prospects lists from Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline then earns a full year of service as a rookie, they become PPI eligible. If they then win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting before reaching their arbitration years, they can net their club an extra draft pick. This already happened once when Julio Rodríguez won American League Rookie of the Year last year, getting the Mariners an extra draft pick after the first round. Bradley is on all three of those prospect lists and is therefore in the mix for earning PPI eligibility this year.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Braves, Nick Margevicius Agree To Minor League Deal
The Braves recently signed left-hander Nick Margevicius to a minor league contract, as noted by Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. He’s been assigned to the club’s Florida complex, per the transactions tracker at MLB.com.
That’ll presumably be a temporary stop for Margevicius to build into game shape before eventually reporting to Triple-A Gwinnett. From there, he’ll look to work his way back to the majors for the first time in two years. Margevicius pitched at the big league level between 2019-21, suiting up with the Padres and Mariners. The former 7th round draftee has started 22 of 32 big league outings, posting a 6.12 ERA over 110 1/3 innings.
Margevicius doesn’t throw hard. His fastball generally sits a little below 90 MPH. He’s shown excellent control in his minor league career, walking a mere 4.4% of opposing hitters. His 8.1% walk rate at the major league level is closer to average, but the lack of free passes has helped him manage a decent 4.04 ERA across 301 minor league innings.
Much of that success came earlier in his career. Margevicius was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in May 2021, ending his season after just 12 appearances. He lost his spot on Seattle’s 40-man roster last May and went unclaimed on waivers. Sent outright to Triple-A Tacoma, he struggled to a 7.53 ERA across 49 innings. His 20.3% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk percentage weren’t too far from average but a massive .422 batting average on balls in play against him led to plenty of runs crossing the plate.
Seattle released the Rider product early in Spring Training. After a few weeks on the open market, he joins the third organization of his professional career. He’ll add some rotation and/or long relief depth to the upper levels of the Atlanta system once he’s built into game shape.
German Marquez Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, No Significant Structural Damage
10:47pm: Márquez expects to be placed on the 15-day injured list, he said after tonight’s loss to the Cardinals (relayed by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post).
9:24pm: Rockies starter Germán Márquez was sent for an MRI after leaving yesterday’s start with tightness in his forearm. Imaging revealed a muscle strain but no significant structural damage, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
It’s a relief there are apparently no structural issues that would raise the specter of surgery. Nevertheless, it’s hard to envision Márquez avoiding the injured list after the revelation of a forearm injury. The Rockies haven’t yet made a roster move or provided any kind of timetable for his recovery.
Márquez is the top pitcher on the Rockies’ staff. He’s allowed eight runs in 16 1/3 innings this season but struck out 13 while issuing only two walks. The Venezuelan-born hurler had a down 2022 season, allowing nearly five earned runs per nine over 31 starts. Between 2017-21, he worked to a 4.25 ERA with an above-average 24% strikeout rate.
Rotation depth is a major concern for Colorado. Antonio Senzatela is still recovering from last summer’s torn ACL. Beyond Márquez and Kyle Freeland, the Rox currently have José Ureña, Ryan Feltner and Austin Gomber rounding out the starting five. Ureña and Feltner, in particular, have been hit hard in their first two starts. Long reliever Connor Seabold and Peter Lambert appear to be the top options to step into the rotation should Márquez miss any time.
It’s a crucial season for Márquez, who’s in the final guaranteed year of his contract. The Rockies aren’t expected to compete for a playoff spot and could listen to offers on players closer to the trade deadline. A healthy Márquez would be a target for a number of clubs, though Colorado has steadfastly refused interest in previous summers. They could well do so again, as the Rox hold a $16MM option on his services that comes with a $2.5MM buyout for next season. The net $13.5MM call is strong value if the right-hander is healthy. That calculus could change if he’s forced to miss a notable chunk of this season with a forearm issue but the timeline remains to be determined.
Twins Place Joey Gallo On Injured List
The Twins placed Joey Gallo on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 8, shortly before tonight’s matchup with the White Sox. The first baseman/outfielder is dealing with a right intercostal strain.
It doesn’t seem all that serious, as Gallo was participating in drills this evening. He told reporters he felt he was “in a good spot” physically tonight, though the club has evidently decided to proceed with caution (via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). That’d seem to suggest there’s a good chance he won’t require much or any more time than the minimal week off.
Gallo signed a one-year free agent deal last offseason. The Twins were hoping he could bounceback from a tough year and a half split between the Dodgers and Rangers. The two-time All-Star opened his Minnesota tenure with a fantastic week. Gallo has five hits (including three home runs) and a pair of walks over his first 20 plate appearances as a Twin.
A Gold Glove caliber outfielder, Gallo has primarily played first base with Minnesota. That’s because Alex Kirilloff opened the year on the injured list as he rehabs from last year’s season-ending wrist procedure. It seems both Kirilloff and second baseman Jorge Polanco are closing in on their season debuts, however. They’re each on rehab assignments with Low-A Fort Myers and should return to the majors within the next week or two.
Minnesota is playing tonight’s game a man down. They didn’t make a corresponding roster move today, although it’s possible they turn to one of their top prospects tomorrow. Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic notes that Edouard Julien was yanked from tonight’s game for Triple-A St. Paul shortly after Gallo’s IL placement was announced. Julien, ranked by Baseball America as the sport’s #97 overall prospect, was added to Minnesota’s 40-man roster last offseason. The Auburn product hit .300/.441/.490 in Double-A last season and is off to a .276/.417/.517 start in eight games in St. Paul.
Brewers Place Brandon Woodruff On Injured List
The Brewers announced they’ve placed star hurler Brandon Woodruff on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 8, due to shoulder inflammation. Janson Junk has been recalled from Triple-A Nashville to take the vacated active roster spot.
Woodruff is coming off a strong start against the Cardinals on Saturday. He threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings in an eventual shutout win, tallying 84 pitches. He didn’t respond as hoped between appearances, though, and the Brewers will put him on the shelf. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets that the club is hopeful it’ll be a minimal stint, which would cost him two starts.
The right-hander lost a month last season to a high ankle sprain. He’s never previously spent time on the IL with an arm-related injury as a major leaguer. He’s topped 100 innings in each of the past three full schedules and make a full slate of 13 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign. Woodruff tallied 153 1/3 frames last year in spite of the ankle sprain, taking the ball 27 times.
Woodruff had been tabbed to start tomorrow’s game in Arizona. It now seems that’ll fall to Junk, who’d be making his team debut. Acquired from the Angels in the Hunter Renfroe trade over the winter, Junk opened the year on an optional assignment to Nashville. He’s thrown ten innings of one-run ball there, striking out seven while walking three. The righty started six of seven MLB appearances with the Halos between 2021-22, posting a 4.74 ERA over 24 2/3 frames.
Yankees Notes: Rodón, Severino, Bader
Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón has yet to make his debut with the club, having spent the early parts of the season on the injured list due to a forearm strain. It was reported last week that he was set to progress towards throwing live batting practice but manager Aaron Boone says Rodón was recently delayed by some back tightness, per Talkin’ Yanks. That has set his progress back by at least a few days.
Rodón is capable of being one of the best pitchers on the planet when healthy, as evidenced by his 2.88 ERA and 33.4% strikeout rate last year over 178 innings. However, he’s had difficult staying healthy for extended stretches. In his eight major league seasons, last year was only the second time he reached the 140-inning plateau. Nonetheless, the Yanks took a shot on him by signing him to a six-year, $162MM deal.
That put Rodón into a high-upside but volatile rotation that has seen three of its members start the season on the injured list, as right-handers Luis Severino and Frankie Montas are also on the shelf. That’s led to Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes being joined by depth options like Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito. Despite those issues, the club is still holding its own with a 6-4 record thus far, but they’ll surely be better off once Rodón is healthy and can jump back in. The Yanks would undoubtedly love to have him back as soon as possible but will likely avoid rushing him at this time of year, prioritizing his long-term health with many months still remaining on the schedule. Boone tells Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News that Rodón will throw another bullpen tomorrow and characterized an April return as “a little aggressive.”
Speaking of Severino, he is also trying to work his way back from the injured list, as mentioned. Severino suffered a lat strain towards the end of March, just as the season was set to kick off. He threw a bullpen session yesterday, per Erik Boland of Newsday, and came out of it feeling good. He says he hasn’t felt his injury in over a week, which is an encouraging sign. Much like Rodon, Severino’s career has been a mix of excellent results and injury absences. He topped 190 innings in both 2017 and 2018, though tossed only 18 total frames over 2019-2021 and 102 last year. But when healthy enough to take the mound, he’s posted a 3.39 career ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 45.9% ground ball rate. His return timeline will undoubtedly come into focus as he continues ramping up in the near future.
Boone also provided Talkin’ Yanks with an update on Harrison Bader, as relayed by Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. The outfielder has been dealing with an oblique strain for about a month and has yet to debut this season. Boone says he progressed to full hitting machine batting practice and could start a rehab assignment next week. Injuries have been an ongoing issue for Bader in his time as a Yankee, as he was already on the IL with plantar fasciitis when they traded for him last year. He eventually returned and played 14 regular season games, along with nine more in the playoffs.
Bader has been around league average at the plate in his career, as his .245/.317/.405 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 97. However, his defense is very well rated, already accruing 48 Defensive Runs Saved, 59 Outs Above Average and has a grade of 42.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. All three of those figures place him in the top 10 among all outfielders in the league from 2017 to the present.
In Bader’s absence, most of the playing time has gone to Aaron Judge, with a couple of starts along going to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, while the corner outfield duties have been split between Giancarlo Stanton, Franchy Cordero, Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks. Once Bader comes back, he figures to push Judge back into a corner, potentially putting a dent in the playing time of that group.
Xander Bogaerts Discusses Free Agency
There were few bigger stories of last offseason than Xander Bogaerts’ free agency. A career-long member of the Red Sox, he opted out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal with Boston to test the open market. That came six months after Spring Training extension talks had gone nowhere, setting the stage for Bogaerts to join the Padres on a stunning 11-year, $280MM contract at the Winter Meetings.
Bogaerts recently addressed the end of his time in Boston with Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He expressed disappointment with the Red Sox’s initial extension proposal last spring. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported at the time that Boston had offered four years and $90MM — one year and $30MM in new money — for Bogaerts to preemptively forego his opt-out chance. It was a surprisingly light offer that turned out to be well below Bogaerts’ open market value, one with which the All-Star shortstop wasn’t satisfied.
“The one in spring training was a little tough. I think it’s well-documented what the offer was,” Bogaerts told Cotillo. “That was a tough pill to swallow at that time because you’re hearing about extension talks so you’re looking forward to seeing what they’re thinking and what they’re offering. That was a tough one.”
The sides halted talks during the season but reengaged at the end of the year. Boston brass maintained at the outset of the offseason that keeping Bogaerts was their top priority. They indeed moved quite a bit from their extension offer, reportedly putting forth a proposal in the six-year, $160MM range during the winter. That was at least in the realm of general expectations at the start of the offseason — MLBTR predicted Bogaerts at seven years and $189MM at the start of the winter — but came up well shy of San Diego’s winning bid. Free agent prices for star talent exploded last winter and it seemed clear by the Winter Meetings that Bogaerts would surpass $200MM, though few would’ve foreseen a team nearing $300MM.
“Way off,” Bogaerts said of Boston’s final offer. “They felt the way they felt. They did what they did. I have no bad feelings for them. I’ve seen multiple great players come through that organization who I’ve played with and they’re not there anymore. Some guys went from pretty untradeable to tradeable. That was eye-opening. It makes you see things differently, for sure.”
It indeed seems clear the Red Sox weren’t as bullish on Bogaerts’ long-term projection as the Padres were. Boston had an in-house replacement to step in at shortstop after signing Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee two offseasons ago. Those plans were scuttled, at least early in 2023, when it was revealed Story required an internal brace procedure to address a ligament issue in his throwing elbow. That pushed Enrique Hernández in from center field to man shortstop, though Adam Duvall’s wrist fracture could force Hernández back into center field more frequently.
Boston made another huge investment in the left side of the infield later in the winter. The Sox agreed to a $313.5MM extension with third baseman Rafael Devers in January. Devers is four years younger than Bogaerts and has been an even better hitter than the star shortstop. It’s not hard to see why the Boston front office considered Devers the safer long-term investment, even as Bogaerts plays the more demanding position and assuaged some concern about his glove with solid defensive marks last year.
Seth Brown Likely To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Oblique Strain
A’s corner outfielder Seth Brown has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of his left oblique, skipper Mark Kotsay told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). The injury has a general recovery timeline of four to six weeks.
Brown was already placed on the 10-day injured list over the weekend. It’s clear he’ll miss well beyond that minimum amount of time. It’s a tough blow to the A’s offense, as the lefty-hitting Brown was one of their more potent power bats. He connected on 25 home runs with a .230/.305/.444 line over 555 plate appearances last season. Brown started the year slowly but caught fire in the second half, tying for 11th in the majors with 15 homers after the All-Star Break.
As a result, Brown was penciled into the middle of the Oakland lineup against right-handed pitching. He’d hit third or fourth in all eight of his starts this season. Brown had opened the year slowly, hitting just .200 with one homer over his first 32 plate appearances. Still, his solid production of the previous two years ensured he’d get a long leash in an Oakland lineup that doesn’t have many established hitters.
The rebuilding A’s have predictably been off to a terrible start offensively. Only the Tigers (who have played one fewer game) have scored fewer runs than Oakland’s 28, and the A’s have a team slash line of just .198/.270/.325. They’re 2-8 through their first ten games.
Conner Capel has picked up the last three starts in left field. The 25-year-old seems likely to get the biggest jump in playing time with Brown out of action. Claimed off waivers from the Cardinals last summer, Capel has a .299/.355/.478 line in 30 big league games. The left-handed hitter combined for a .259/.361/.425 mark over 409 Triple-A plate appearances last season.
Pirates’ JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows Receiving Second Opinions On Elbow Injuries
Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk met with the team’s beat this afternoon (relayed by Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). According to Tomczyk, right-handers JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows are each headed for second opinions after suffering elbow injuries. Burrows landed on the minor league injured list today with a sprain of his UCL.
It’s not a surprising development in Brubaker’s case. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported last week that Brubaker was weighing whether to undergo Tommy John surgery. That he’s now headed for a second opinion wouldn’t appear to bode well for his chance of avoiding going under the knife, though the club hasn’t definitively stated whether surgery is likely.
Brubaker had been one of Pittsburgh’s more durable arms over the past few seasons. He finished second on the team in innings in 2022 and topped 120 frames in each of the last two years. Brubaker has never posted an ERA better than last year’s 4.69 mark, but he’d shown decent strikeout and walk numbers while handling right-handed hitters reasonably well. If healthy, there was never much doubt he’d have secured a spot towards the back of the starting five again to enter the year.
That was put on hold this spring. Brubaker reported discomfort in his forearm/elbow area and was immediately shut down. The Bucs quickly placed him on the 60-day injured list, ruling him out at least until the end of May. With surgery seemingly a strong consideration, it’s possible he won’t be a factor at all this season.
Burrows hasn’t yet reached the major league level. An 11th round pick in 2018, the Connecticut native has been one of the Bucs’ more interesting pitching prospects. Baseball America slotted him ninth among Pittsburgh farmhands last offseason, praising his fastball-slider combination and solid control. BA suggests he could be a back-of-the-rotation starter if his changeup develops, although he’d probably be better suited for a bullpen role if he can’t find an average or better third pitch.
Pittsburgh added Burrows to the 40-man roster over the offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He started the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis. After throwing five innings of one-run ball in his first outing, he was pulled in the second inning of his following appearance. Even if he can avoid surgery, the 23-year-old figures to be out for an extended period after imaging revealed some damage to the elbow ligament.
Burrows will continue to count against Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster while on the minor league injured list. If the Bucs wanted to clear a roster spot, they could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day IL. That’d require paying him at the prorated MLB minimum rate of $720K and allow him to accrue major league service.