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Big Hype Prospects: Wood, Holliday, Williams, Rodriguez, Crow-Armstrong

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The international signing market is well underway. We can think of these mostly 16-year-old boys as transplanted seeds. Some of them will grow big and strong over the next half-decade. Others will sprout then later wither during a drought or cold spell. Many won’t take to the new soil in which they’re planted. Perhaps the soil is too base or acidic. Or maybe a team thought they were buying one type of seed and actually got another. The wrong type of nurturing can ruin a plant. As outside observers, we can check back in a year or three once these youngsters have taken to their new soil.

Plant metaphor aside, we have a honking update from Baseball America to chew upon this week. They’ve released their initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list. I’m pleased to point out that Big Hype Prospects has correctly anticipated several notable surges up the prospect ranks, most notably number one overall Gunnar Henderson, number three Jackson Chourio, and number five Andrew Painter. Today, I’ll focus on a few names who have shot up the ranks.

For those of you who have been frustrated by the lack of “Big Hype” in our offseason prospects coverage, this is the episode for you.

Five BHPs In The News

James Wood, 20, OF, WSH (A)
(R/A) 348 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .313/.420/.536

Wood drew attention as the principal return in the Juan Soto trade. While he was joined by several promising young players, Wood is now seen as the “big get” in the deal. One concern from professional evaluators is the lack of successes from the Nationals development pipeline. While they’ve had a few big stars over the years (i.e. Soto), they’ve also seen a number of top prospects vastly underperform expectations (i.e. Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom).

If we assume the club doesn’t find some way to spoil Wood, there’s considerable upside here. Wood is built like a young Oneil Cruz. He’s a lean, physical giant with above-average speed, light tower raw power, a surprising feel for contact, and natural plate discipline. Like many young players, his contact profile is still geared toward ground balls. He also has an all-fields approach which has helped with his BABIPs at the expense of home runs. These will be the areas of his game likeliest to differentiate between a core performer or superstar future. Wood ranks 11th on the new Top 100 list.

Jackson Holliday, 19, 2B/SS, BAL (A)
(R/A) 90 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .297/.489/.422

The first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday checks in as the 15th prospect per Baseball America. In limited exposure, he demonstrated pristine plate discipline and only rarely whiffed. The Orioles have recently garnered a sterling reputation when it comes to developing middle infielders. Holliday is still built like a typical 19-year-old athlete. He’s expected to add weight in the coming years. Scouts believe he’ll grow into 60-grade power. “Grow” is the operative word. Holliday and the Orioles will want to be careful. Too much growth could lead to a future as a second baseman with average or worse speed. Too little growth could leave his bat lacking thump.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AA)
(A+/AA) 115 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.96 ERA

Williams looks the part of a future ace, combining an effective upper-90s heater with a plus slider and curve. Like many power pitchers, his changeup flashes as usable but lags behind the other offerings enough that it’ll play fourth fiddle. A fly-ball pitcher with average command, Williams should be ready to contribute in Cleveland this season – health allowing. Williams is rated 20th by Baseball America. Between him and fast-rising Daniel Espino (19th-ranked), the Cleveland rotation could feature two lethal aces by the start of 2024.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 531 PA, 25 HR, 2 SB, .323/.407/.590

Back in September, my sources were talking about bumping Rodriguez onto their Top 100 lists. I said the following:

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Rodriguez now ranks 23rd. Victory lap complete, Rodriguez is on the cusp of reaching the Majors. The Pirates have quietly given their roster a chance to “surprise contend.” One position they’ve done little to solve is catcher. They’re currently set to roll out a duo of defensive specialist Austin Hedges and perennial third-catcher Tyler Heineman.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHI (MLB)
(A/A+) 423 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .312/.376/.520

Crow-Armstrong is spoken of as a Kiermaierian defender, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire minor leagues. On this strength, Baseball America has ranked him 25th. Concerns about his hit tool have been alleviated following a successful 2022 campaign. It’s now believed he’ll settle in as an above-average hitter in addition to being the best defensive outfielder in the league. While that sounds like the profile of an easy Top 10 prospect, there are still enough ways for his bat to stumble to merit caution. The next hurdle for him is to see how his bat reacts to higher-quality breaking balls in the upper minors.

Five More

Kodai Senga, NYM (29): This column typically avoids international free agents. Technically, Senga is a prospect and ranks 16th. From the perspective of immediate contribution, only Henderson and Corbin Carroll are in the same stratosphere. Of course, Senga’s advanced age reduces his “value” as a prospect.

Evan Carter (20): Carter, another guy whose rise was anticipated by this column, is frequently comped to Brandon Nimmo. The left-handed hitter is carried by plate discipline and a feel for contact. His power isn’t a total zero, but it lags behind his other hitting traits. He might top out as a 20-homer threat, or he might not climb that far. Even so, he’s a high-probability future core performer. He’s ranked 26th. Teams value these sorts of players – just look at what Nimmo earned in free agency.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): There’s disagreement about which of the Diamondbacks young pitchers will turn out as the best performer. Baseball America has hitched its stakes to Pfaadt after his breakout 2022 campaign. He ranks 27th. We discussed him last week.

Marco Luciano, SFG (21): At one point, Luciano was trending toward top overall prospect status – much the way Chourio is now. Some of Luciano’s skills haven’t developed as expected, and his meteoric rise has stalled to a more gradual approach to the Majors. Luciano, 37th-ranked, still projects as a prodigious power hitter, one with flaws and a future move down the defensive spectrum.

Kevin Parada, NYM (21): At 50th on the list, Parada’s was the first name to catch me entirely by surprise. The 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Parada ranks where he does due to promising offensive traits and roughly average defense. Parada was taken with the compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker in 2021. Rocker, you might note, does not rank in the Top 100.

Yankees Reportedly Reluctant To Surpass Fourth Luxury Tax Tier

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The Yankees have had an aggressive offseason, retaining Aaron Judge on a record free agent deal while bringing in Carlos Rodón on a six-year contract. Those additions, plus a new two-year deal for Anthony Rizzo, accomplished most of the club’s heavy lifting.

It also positioned the organization to top last year’s franchise-record spending level. New York has roughly $272MM in player payroll commitments, per Roster Resource, handily above last year’s $254.7MM figure. The club’s luxury tax number is right up against the $293MM line that marks the highest tier of CBT penalization. Roster Resource projects the organization at $292.3MM at present.

That latter number seems particularly important to the organization. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Yankees don’t want to exceed the $293MM threshold. Considering where their payroll stands, rigidly sticking to that goal would rule out any other notable addition unless the club finds a way to shed some money.

The Yankee roster looks strong, with Rodón replacing Jameson Taillon in the rotation for a team that won 99 regular season games and made it to the AL Championship Series. Left field seems their biggest question mark, as last summer’s deadline acquisition Andrew Benintendi departed on a five-year free agent deal with the White Sox. The Yankees currently have veteran Aaron Hicks and youngster Oswaldo Cabrera as their top left field options. Hicks has posted below-average offensive numbers for the past two seasons. Cabrera showed well as a rookie but has only 44 games of MLB experience under his belt.

Heyman reiterates the Yankees’ previously reported interest in free agent left fielder Jurickson Profar but casts doubt on their chances of actually landing him in light of the club’s payroll stance. Heyman reports that veteran utilityman Josh Harrison is also of interest — presumably as a depth infield target who could also factor into the left field mix — but even a low base salary for Harrison would figure to push them past the $293MM CBT mark.

The fourth tax tier was introduced during the most recent round of collective bargaining. Set $60MM above the season’s base figure ($233MM this year), it involves at least an 80% tax on every dollar spent past the fourth tier. Teams paying the luxury tax for a second consecutive year — as the Yankees will be — are taxed at a 90% clip on additional expenditures.

One can argue whether it’s prudent for the Yankees to treat the $293MM figure as a strict cutoff as they look to repeat as division winners in another competitive AL East. As thing stand, the club is set to pay around $29MM in CBT fees. They’re already slated to see their top selection in the 2024 draft moved back ten spots for surpassing the $273MM mark. There’d be no additional draft penalties for surpassing the fourth threshold, though the financial disincentives are even higher. The Yankees certainly haven’t been frugal this winter, guaranteeing upwards of $570MM overall and pushing to second in 2023 spending. The crosstown Mets have proven thoroughly undeterred by the final tax tier, running a CBT payroll north of $360MM that’s easily the league’s highest.

A club’s competitive balance tax figure isn’t calculated until the end of a season. The Yankees could go above $293MM during the offseason while subsequently dipping below that threshold before year’s end. Alternatively, they could stick below the marker for now but reconsider going over at the summer trade deadline if they’re in contention as expected.

If that threshold is truly the line in the sand, trades would be the primary means of clearing additional breathing room. New York would surely welcome the opportunity to reallocate some of the $25MM CBT hit on the Josh Donaldson deal or the $10MM number of Hicks’ contract, but they’ve seemingly found little interest around the league. Players like Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa would draw more interest if New York wanted to make them available, though doing so would obviously deal a hit to their infield depth. Starter Frankie Montas is making $7.5MM and may have been a potential trade target after the club added Rodón; that’d be tougher to do now that Montas is a couple months behind schedule because of continued shoulder troubles.

Dodgers To Hire Chris Woodward As Special Assistant In Front Office

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The Dodgers are hiring former Rangers manager Chris Woodward as a special assistant in their front office, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). He returns to the Los Angeles organization, where he spent three years as a member of Dave Roberts’ coaching staff before landing the top dugout job in Arlington.

Woodward, 46, played parts of 12 MLB seasons as a depth infielder. After retiring in 2012, he transitioned into his post-playing career. Woodward joined the Mariners as a minor league infield coordinator and was promoted to the big league coaching staff the next season. He spent two years on staff in Seattle before joining the Dodgers as third base coach over the 2015-16 offseason.

That experience set the stage for Woodward to receive a fair bit of managerial attention. He was mentioned as part of the Yankees’ search that went to Aaron Boone and the Blue Jays’ process that eventually led to Charlie Montoyo. Woodward landed the top gig for the first time during the 2018-19 offseason, tabbed to lead a rebuilding Rangers club on a three-year contract.

Texas signed him to an extension after two seasons, guaranteeing his contract through 2023. That was the opening move of an active offseason for the Rangers, one they hoped would result in a notable step forward in the on-field results. Full-fledged contention in 2022 wasn’t likely, but Texas brass surely anticipated laying the foundation for a postseason-caliber team by 2023.

That didn’t pan out. With the club carrying a 51-63 record in the middle of August, the Rangers fired Woodward. President of baseball operations Jon Daniels was himself dismissed not long thereafter. Texas turned to Tony Beasley as skipper on an interim basis for the stretch run and hired Bruce Bochy to permanently lead the charge this offseason. The Rangers went 211-287 over Woodward’s tenure, though they anticipated a fair number of losses early on.

Padres Outright Sean Poppen

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The Padres announced Friday evening that reliever Sean Poppen has gone unclaimed on waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A El Paso. There’d been no previous indication Poppen was designated for assignment, so the move clears a spot on the San Diego 40-man roster. That count drops to 39.

Poppen landed in San Diego last month on a waiver claim from Arizona. The right-hander has pitched in the majors in each of the last four seasons, with the majority of that work coming since the start of 2021. Poppen has played for four different clubs, spending the past year-plus with the Diamondbacks.

In 67 1/3 career innings, the Harvard product has a 5.08 ERA. He’s posted a slightly below-average 22.3% strikeout rate and 10% walk percentage. It was a similar story in 2022, as Poppen worked to a 4.40 ERA across 28 2/3 frames. He struck out 18.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes at a 10% clip. He averaged a solid 94.6 MPH on his sinker but only generated swinging strikes on 6.3% of his total pitches.

Poppen has had more success in the minor leagues. He’s logged 121 innings over parts of three Triple-A seasons, working to a cumulative 3.50 ERA. The former 19th-round pick has fanned around 24% of opponents at the highest minor league level. He worked to a 4.62 ERA over 25 1/3 frames with Arizona’s top affiliate last year. That was his final option season, so the Friars couldn’t send him back to the minors without first passing him through waivers.

Despite appearing in parts of four MLB seasons, the 28-year-old has yet to reach two full years of big league service time. This is the first time in his career he’s been outrighted, so he won’t have the right to test minor league free agency. Poppen will presumably head to big league camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. If he doesn’t reclaim a 40-man roster spot before Opening Day, he’ll start the season in the El Paso bullpen.

Marlins To Move Jazz Chisholm To Center Field

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The Marlins made their long-awaited swap of a starting pitcher for a hitter this afternoon, sending Pablo López to Minnesota as part of a deal for Luis Arraez. Shortly after the trade was finalized, Miami general manager Kim Ng told reporters (including Craig Mish of SportsGrid) the newly-acquired infielder would take over as the primary second baseman. All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. will move from the keystone to center field.

It’s an interesting gambit for Miami, who’ll indirectly address their uncertain center field mix with today’s trade. Arraez has plenty of experience as a second baseman. He came up through the minors at the position and has logged more MLB innings there than at any other position. Over parts of four seasons, Arraez has spent a bit more than 1200 innings at the keystone.

Public defensive metrics have been mixed on his effectiveness. Defense Runs Saved rated him as nine runs below average in just 390 innings there as a rookie in 2019. Over the three seasons since then, DRS has pegged him as a slightly better than average second baseman. Statcast hasn’t been quite so optimistic. While it also feels he’s improved since a poor rookie showing — an estimated -7 runs in 2019 — it has rated him a little below par in two of the last three years.

Statcast has graded Arraez’s arm strength as slightly above-average for the position. Scouts have raised questions about his lateral quickness and athleticism since his time as a prospect, though. Minnesota pushed him primarily to first base work last season, starting him 31 times at the keystone compared to 60 times at first base (with a handful of games at third also mixed in). Of course, Minnesota’s signing of Carlos Correa solidified shortstop and ensured Jorge Polanco would play almost exclusively at second base. The Twins felt more comfortable with Polanco’s glove than Arraez’s up the middle, but it’s possible they’d have given the latter more second base time if they hadn’t landed one of the sport’s best shortstops.

It does come as a surprise to see Miami move Chisholm out of the middle infield. The 24-year-old (25 next month) established himself as the organization’s top position player with a .254/.325/.535 first half before suffering a season-ending stress fracture in his back. He also later underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee.

Signed as a shortstop prospect out of the Bahamas, Chisholm has only ever played the middle infield as a professional. He’ll take on the outfield on the fly during the upcoming season, with a month-plus of Spring Training action to acclimate to the new position.

With zero outfield experience, it’s impossible to know how Chisholm will take to the different reads and angles he’ll need to learn as an outfielder. Miami is clearly confident he’ll polish those aspects of his game quickly while relying on his elite athleticism in the interim. Chisholm was long credited by scouts with plus speed, and Statcast placed him in the league’s 94th percentile in that regard last season. He would’ve tied for 19th among 74 center fielders in sprint speed, so he certainly shouldn’t have issue covering the spacious outfield at Marlins Park from that perspective.

Prospect evaluators also praised Chisholm for an above-average throwing arm. He hasn’t shown that at the MLB level, though it’s not fair to compare his throwing speeds as a second baseman to those of center fielders. Chisholm obviously had quicker releases and much shorter distances to throw on the right side of the infield than he will from center field.

It’s a gamble for the Fish nonetheless, given the challenge of projecting how quickly he’ll develop the kind of reads needed to be a solid defensive center fielder. Yet it’s one Miami will take after missing out on their chances to directly upgrade the position from outside the organization. The free agent market at the position was mostly limited to depth players beyond Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier. Trades only offered a few more obvious candidates, with the Pirates sticking to a massive asking price on Bryan Reynolds and even reports of a somewhat significant ask from the Royals on a glove-first option like Michael A. Taylor.

Rather than run things back with players like Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday — all of whom are better suited in the corner outfield — they’ll turn things over to Chisholm. Their younger outfielders will vie for a spot in the corner opposite Avisaíl García, while Arraez looks like to be joined by Joey Wendle, Jean Segura and Garrett Cooper in the primary infield.

Pirates Designate Miguel Andujar For Assignment

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The Pirates have designated infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar for assignment in order to make space on the roster for Andrew McCutchen, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Andujar, 27, came to the Pirates late in the 2022 season after being designated for assignment by the Yankees and turned in a .250/.279/.389 batting line in 40 plate appearances down the stretch. It wasn’t a particularly robust showing from the 2018 American League Rookie of the Year runner-up, but it was enough for Pittsburgh to tender a contract to the arbitration-eligible Andujar and eventually agree to a $1.525MM salary for the upcoming season.

As the offseason has progressed, however, the Bucs have continued to add players who’ll cut into Andujar’s would-be playing time. First came the acquisition of first baseman Ji-Man Choi in a trade with the Rays — a move that was quickly followed by the signing of Carlos Santana. That pair of pickups pushed Andujar out of the first base/designated hitter mix and, with Ke’Bryan Hayes locked in at third base, left Andujar as either an outfielder or a bench option. Both those roles were further muddied by this week’s reunion with McCutchen, however.

It’s been a long road for Andujar, who hit .297/.328/.527 and blasted 27 home runs when he finished second to Shohei Ohtani in that previously mentioned Rookie of the Year voting. Since that time, he’s undergone shoulder surgery, seen his role with the Yankees filled by free-agent and trade acquisitions, and bounced to the Pirates when the Yankees finally ran out of chances for him.

Andujar has managed only a .230/.257/.324 batting line in 416 big league plate appearances since that brilliant debut campaign, due in part to both injuries and infrequent playing time. He’s remained a productive hitter in Triple-A, however, evidenced by a career .303/.351/.507 batting line at that level — including a .285/.330/.487 output this past season in Scranton. He’s also become a more versatile player in an effort to get back to the big leagues, adding first base and left field to his defensive skill set.

That said, Andujar will soon turn 28, is out of minor league options, and now comes with that $1.525MM salary for any team that wishes to claim him. All of that gives the Pirates a decent chance of passing him through waivers. Andujar has enough service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency if he does indeed clear, but doing so would mean forfeiting that $1.525MM guarantee, which seems unlikely. There’s a good chance the Buccos will be able to retain him in Triple-A Indianapolis and bring him back to the Majors whenever injuries necessitate such a move. For now, however, they’ll have several days to survey the trade market before deciding whether to place him on waivers. We’ll know a resolution to his DFA status within a week’s time.

Reds Outright Matt Reynolds

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Jan. 20: Reynolds accepted his assignment to Louisville, the Reds announced. He’ll be invited to Major League camp in spring training.

Jan. 19: Infielder/outfielder Matt Reynolds has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Louisville, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. Reynolds was designated for assignment last week when the club signed right-hander Luke Weaver.

Reynolds, 32, began last season with the Mets but went to the Reds on a waiver claim in April. He’d long put up good number in Triple-A but hadn’t been able to reproduce them at the big league level. The rebuilding Reds gave him a shot and kept him on the roster for the rest of the season, sending him up to the plate 272 times. He drew walks at a healthy 9.6% clip but also struck out 28.7% of the time and only went deep three times. He finished the season with a .246/.320/.332 batting line and an 81 wRC+, indicating he was 19% below league average.

While his bat fell short of the MLB mean, he did at least provide the Reds with plenty of defensive versatility. He suited up at the seven non-battery positions and even made two mop-up appearances on the mound, meaning that the only position he didn’t play was catcher.

It seems that wasn’t enough to entice any of the 29 other clubs around the league, with all of them passing on the chance to add Reynolds to their 40-man. As mentioned by Rosecrans, Reynolds has the right to reject his outright assignment and elect free agency. That’s due to the fact that he’d previously been outrighted in his career. Whether he’ll accept that assignment or not remains to be seen.

Cardinals Sign Tres Barrera To Minor League Deal

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The Cardinals and catcher Tres Barrera are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). The Ballengee Group client will receive an invitation to big league camp in Spring Training, where he’ll vie for a backup job to offseason signee Willson Contreras. The Cards announced the signing not long after Murray’s initial report.

Formerly a sixth-round pick by the Nationals, Barrera is a 28-year-old right-handed hitter who’s spent his entire career to date with the same organization. He’s appeared in parts of three big league seasons with Washington, batting a combined .231/.317/.315 in 162 trips to the plate. He spent the bulk of the 2022 season in Triple-A Rochester, where he batted .254/.338/.424 in 206 plate appearances.

Barrera sports a solid 25% caught-stealing rate in his minor league career, though he’s somewhat surprisingly thrown out just nine percent of attempted thieves in the big leagues. That’s come in a small sample, of course, and Baseball Prospectus has generally rated Barrera as solid or better in terms of both pitch framing and blocking balls in the dirt throughout his time in the minors and the big leagues.

The starting gig behind the plate is obviously spoken for in St. Louis after Contreras inked a five-year contract, and as things stand, Andrew Knizner is the presumptive backup. Barrera can team with top catching prospect Ivan Herrera to form a Triple-A catching duo and give the Cards some experienced depth in the upper minors.

Pirates Sign Andrew McCutchen

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Andrew McCutchen’s career has come full circle. The Pirates on Friday formally announced that they’ve re-signed the franchise icon to a one-year contract for the 2023 season. McCutchen will reportedly earn a $5MM salary on the deal.

“We are thrilled to be able to reunite with Andrew,” Pirates owner Bob Nutting said in a statement within today’s press release. “His return just feels right. It is right for our team, for Andrew and his family, for our fans and for the game of baseball. Andrew is a special player and person. It is going to be exciting to again see him take the field wearing 22 in the black and gold.”

It’s a feel-good story for Bucs fans, who’ll surely give the five-time All-Star and 2013 National League MVP a hero’s welcome in his return to PNC Park. The Pirates selected McCutchen, now 36 years old, with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2005 draft. He immediately ranked among the sport’s top overall prospects after a strong post-draft showing in the minors in ’05, and by 2009 he’d reached the Majors and played his way into a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish in the National League, hitting .286/.365/.471.

That served as a stepping stone into stardom for McCutchen, who’d spend the first nine seasons of his career in black and gold, hitting a combined .291/.379/.487 with 203 home runs, 292 doubles, 44 triples and 171 stolen bases. A true cornerstone player, McCutchen led the Pirates to their three most recent postseason appearances, in 2013, 2014 and 2015 — each a Wild Card berth. Pittsburgh only advanced in one of those three seasons, topping the Reds in a one-game Wild Card showdown in 2013 before falling to the Cardinals in that year’s NLDS.

McCutchen signed an early extension with Pittsburgh — a six-year, $51.5MM contract with a club option for a seventh season. That gave the Bucs some extra club control and cost certainty over a player who was then the face of the franchise, but as is so often the case with the Pirates and other low-payroll clubs, McCutchen surfaced as a trade candidate in the late stages of that contract. Nearly six years after that extension was signed, McCutchen was traded to the Giants in what was an unpopular move at the time but now looks like perhaps the best swap in former GM Neal Huntington’s tenure. In order to acquire the final year of McCutchen’s contract, the Giants parted with right-hander Kyle Crick and the man who eventually replaced McCutchen in the outfield: current center fielder Bryan Reynolds.

Since leaving the Pirates and entering his mid-30s, McCutchen’s production has begun to wane. He proved plenty productive in a 2018 season split between the Giants and Yankees — enough to land a three-year, $50MM contract with the Phillies. The first season of that deal saw continued production early on, but McCutchen suffered a torn ACL that June, missed the remainder of the season, and has since settled in closer to league-average in terms of offensive output. Over the past three seasons, he’s a .234/.325/.417 hitter — about three percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

McCutchen spent the 2022 campaign with Milwaukee and scuffled to a career-low .237/.316/.384 batting line in 580 trips to the plate. Even as McCutchen’s bat began to slow down in his post-Pirates days, he remained a potent threat against left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .291/.407/.567 slash from 2019-21. However, that trend also dipped with the Brewers in 2022, as McCutchen turned in a tepid .221/.303/.434 line even when holding the platoon advantage. The Pirates will hope that was more of a BABIP-driven anomaly (.248) than the beginning of a true decline.

McCutchen served as the Brewers’ primary option at designated hitter last season (82 games) but also logged 50 games in the outfield. He hasn’t topped 93 innings of center field work since 2017, his last year with the Pirates, though, and at 36 years old it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll return to logging meaningful time at his former position.

There will naturally be some speculation about the signing of McCutchen and whether it serves as a portent for a subsequent trade of Reynolds, who requested one earlier this offseason due to a sizable gap in extension negotiations with the team. However, logic dictates that there’s no real connection here; McCutchen can’t play center field regularly at this point in his career, and even if Reynolds were traded, the Bucs would surely reallocate much of that playing time to younger outfield options they hope can be part of the team’s core moving forward.

Rather, McCutchen will likely get occasional looks at designated hitter, though with Pittsburgh already acquiring first basemen Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana this offseason, one of those two figures to be the main option at DH. McCutchen gives the Pirates’ outfield mix a complementary right-handed bat to pair with lefty-swinging corner options like Jack Suwinski, Cal Mitchell and Canaan Smith-Njigba, but his impact on the decision of whether to trade or retain Reynolds ranges between minimal to nonexistent.

Beyond the contributions he’ll make on the field and the mentorship he’ll provide to several up-and-coming young Pirates, McCutchen will give fans plenty to cheer for in 2023 as he chases down multiple career milestones. He’s just 52 hits shy of reaching 2000 in his career, and he’s only 13 home runs shy of 300. McCutchen slugged 17 home runs last year and hasn’t hit fewer than 13 in a full season’s worth of games in his career to this point, so he’s a good bet to reach both round numbers this year.

The Pirates don’t project as contenders this season, and McCutchen isn’t likely to push them over that edge, but the team has spent more this winter than in recent years. Pittsburgh has acquired Choi (projected $4.35MM salary) and signed free agents Santana ($6.725MM), Rich Hill ($8MM), Austin Hedges ($5MM), Vince Velasquez ($3.15MM) and Jarlin Garcia ($2.5MM). It’s still a modest slate of expenditures by MLB standards, but McCutchen will take them north of $30MM in added payroll this winter. Contrast that with last offseason’s $16.225MM in spending and the $2.5MM total they spent in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason, and the Bucs are at least on an upward trajectory as they look to buttress their young roster with some steady veterans who can raise the team’s floor.

Even with those additions, Pittsburgh’s payroll won’t reach $80MM, so they only deserve so much praise for taking more earnest strides to put a winning product on the field. That said, that low number still creates the possibility for further veteran additions, be it via the free-agent or trade markets.

Regardless, the Pirates should be an improved team in 2023 — due both to contributions from those new acquisitions and to larger, more productive roles from prospects acquired over the course of the rebuild. There’s surely hope that hopeful cornerstone infielders Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz will take steps forward, and the Pirates could plausibly welcome names like Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester and others to the big leagues for lengthy auditions. The allure of young talent alone gave Pittsburgh fans something to look forward to in 2023, but the return of a beloved franchise figure and one of the best players in recent Pirates adds an extra layer of sentimentality and, hopefully, another productive bat.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms of the contract.

Twins Re-Sign Dereck Rodriguez To Minor League Deal

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The Twins have re-signed righty Dereck Rodriguez to a minor league contract, as announced by agent Gavin Kahn of Enter Sports Management (Twitter link).

Rodriguez, 30, will head back for a third stint with the organization that originally selected him in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. After a three-year stretch with the Giants from 2018-20 and a one-year stop in the Rockies organization in 2021, Rodriguez signed back with the Twins for the 2022 campaign. He tossed 7 2/3 innings at the big league level and allowed three runs (3.52 ERA), also contributing another 94 2/3 frames of 4.75 ERA ball in Triple-A St. Paul.

The son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez, Dereck has appeared in parts of four Major League campaigns, working to a collective 4.24 ERA with a 16.9% strikeout rate, an 8% walk rate and a 41% ground-ball rate. He averaged 92 mph on his heater during last year’s brief look, primarily pairing it with a slider and curveball.

In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Rodriguez has a 5.01 ERA, though that’s skewed by his one catastrophic year with the Rockies, where he was rocked for a 6.72 ERA. He sports a combined 4.17 ERA in his other three Triple-A seasons and has generally posted respectable strikeout and walk rates there: 22.9% and 7.3%, respectively.

The Twins’ big league rotation figures to consist of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, although Maeda will be returning after a year-long absence owing to internal brace surgery to repair the UCL in his pitching elbow, so he shouldn’t be expected to necessarily work a full starter’s workload. The Twins are deep in alternative options on the 40-man roster, with Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland among the prospects who reached the Majors for the first time in 2022, and it’s feasible that recently extended righty Chris Paddack could return from Tommy John surgery in the season’s second half.

It’s a solid collection of arms but one that generally lacks a prototypical front-of-the-rotation presence. Rodriguez will join names like Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak and Brock Stewart as non-roster depth options in the upper minors. Given the health troubles the Twins experienced in 2022, it’s only sensible to see them further stockpiling depth — particularly when it comes in the form of a pitcher they’ve known for quite some time.

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