MLBTR will be hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry of our Offseason In Review series. Earlier today, we released the Angels’ entry in the series. Click here to read the transcript of the Angels-centric chat.
Padres Notes: Bench, Musgrove, Payroll, Machado
Following San Diego’s addition of second baseman Rougned Odor on a minor league deal yesterday, the competition to be part of the Padres Opening Day bench gained a new entrant. As MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell notes, the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. while he completes his PED suspension and the possibility that outfielder Adam Engel isn’t ready for Opening Day as he works his way back from a calf strain open up new possibilities for players hoping to break camp as a member of the bench in San Diego.
One of the four spots on the Padres Opening Day bench is certain to be reserved for backup catcher Luis Campusano. As for the last three spots, Odor seems likely to compete with outfielders David Dahl and Jose Azocar, and utility player Brandon Dixon. Odor provides the least versatility of those options, as all but 259 of his career innings in the field have come at second base. By contrast, Dahl and Azocar both have experience at all three outfield spots, while Dixon has played all four corners and second base during his career. Still, Cassavell notes that Odor’s status as a lefty bat could give him, (and, presumably, Dahl) a leg up on earning a spot on the bench entering the season.
Assuming no additional injuries complicate matters, Matt Carpenter will shift to the bench once Tatis is eligible to return after the first 20 games of the season, while Engel will join the bench as soon as he is healthy. At that point, there will only be one spot still available on the bench in San Diego for the aforementioned quartet. Azocar, Dahl, and Dixon all have options remaining, though Odor does not.
More from San Diego…
- Joe Musgrove, who is currently out of action with a fractured toe, is expected to miss at the least the first two starts of the regular season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee notes that it’s possible that without Musgrove’s contributions, the Padres may opt to go with a five man rotation to open the season, preferring to add depth to a bullpen that could be taxed more than usual without the durable right-hander pitching deep into games. Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Cole Hamels are among the pitchers who could take Musgrove’s spot on the roster, though whether that spot will earn them a role in the bullpen or the rotation is currently unclear.
- Even after signing Manny Machado to his second $300MM+ contract, the Padres appear to have no interest in slowing down, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Given Padres owner Peter Seidler’s already unprecedented investment in the big league club for an organization of their market size, it’s difficult to predict where the limits on spending could be. Lin notes that the backloaded nature of Machado’s new 11-year, $350MM deal with San Diego could help the club pursue an extension with fellow superstar, Juan Soto. It could also assist in a planned pursuit of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani should he hit free agency following the 2023 season as expected, even in spite of the fact that a deal with either player could cost even more than it did to extend Machado. Discussing his recent extension, Machado explains that a candid conversation with Seidler led to the contract eventually being hammered out. Seidler, for his part, says the Padres are “willing and excited about continuing to sign great players.”
Read The Transcript Of Today’s Chat Hosted By Former MLB Reliever Chuckie Fick
Chuckie Fick worked as a reliever at Fresno State, transferring to California State University, Northridge after one season there. He served as a starter for the Matadors and was drafted in the 15th round by the Cardinals in 2007. Chuckie had ties to the organization, as the son of longtime Cardinals scout Chuck Fick. He’s also the nephew of Robert Fick, the former Tigers All-Star.
Chuckie Fick worked his way through the Cardinals’ minor league system, getting a chance to start in 2008-09 before moving to the bullpen permanently. He broke into the Majors in May of 2012, debuting at age 26 at Busch Stadium and tossing a scoreless inning against Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies. He pitched for the Cardinals the following day as well, but that would be his last appearance for the organization. Fick was designated for assignment in July of 2012, and was then claimed off waivers by the Astros.
Fick had ties to the Astros organization as well at that point, having been drafted as a Cardinal by Houston’s new GM, Jeff Luhnow. As Chuckie explained in an interview with Eric Treuden of Call to the Pen last year, he’d known Luhnow for years due to the connection through Fick’s father. Having recently traded Brett Myers, the Astros were in need of bullpen help.
Fick made 18 appearances for the Astros in 2012, posting a 4.30 ERA. The club removed him from their 40-man roster in November. Fick spent 2013 with the Astros’ and Rockies’ Triple-A affiliates. He’d go on to pitch in the Mexican League, Chinese Professional Baseball League, and the Atlantic League. Though his MLB career lasted only 24 2/3 innings, Fick still managed to punch out stars such as Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Holliday, and Jonathan Lucroy.
After retiring, Fick explained to Treuden, “I had opportunities to go play again, but after 2013, I felt like a mercenary, and I never knew when or where my next paycheck was going to come from. I never identified as a ’baseball player.’ It was my job and not my identity, so to not play anymore was not a big emotional decision for me. For the amount of attention I garnered out of high school, college, and even while in pro ball, I consider my career a success. I patted myself on the back, called my agent and told him I was done. Two days later, I hopped on a flight to Nicaragua to go surfing, and the rest is history.”
Now 37 years old, Fick works in insurance with Gallagher Global. He also serves as a pitching coach for the SoCal Giants, a baseball program run by his father. You can follow Chuckie on Twitter @chuckiefick. We were happy to welcome Chuckie for a live chat, wherein he shared some memories from his career, talked about his experiences teaming with All-Stars like Yadier Molina and Jose Altuve, recalled his lone professional hit and touched on the transition from active player into the next phase of his life. Click here to read the transcript!
Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels
Instead of the big splashes they sought in previous offseasons, the Angels opted to spread their resources around to various mid-market additions. When combined with the star power already present on the roster, the club is in good position to be competitive for 2023, though they will have to avoid falling short of expectations again. Beyond this year, there is much uncertainty. Owner Arte Moreno is no longer pursuing a sale of the club, but Shohei Ohtani’s free agency is now just about eight months away.
Major League Signings
- LHP Tyler Anderson: three years, $39MM
- IF/OF Brandon Drury: two years, $17MM
- RHP Carlos Estévez: two years, $13.5MM
- LHP Matt Moore: one year, $7.55MM
- OF Brett Phillips: one year, $1.2MM
- RHP Justin Garza, one year, non-guaranteed split contract
2022 spending: $37MM
Total spending: $78.25MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades And Claims
- Acquired INF Gio Urshela from Twins for RHP Alejandro Hidalgo.
- Acquired OF Hunter Renfroe from Brewers for LHP Adam Seminaris and RHPs Janson Junk and Elvis Peguero.
Extensions
- None
Notable Minor League Signees
- Ryan Aguilar, Aaron Whitefield, Nash Walters, Jake Lamb, Jhonathan Diaz, Jacob Webb, Jonathan Holder, Chad Wallach, Chris Devenski, César Valdez, Fernando Romero, Kevin Padlo, José Godoy, Cam Vieaux, Gerardo Reyes, Luis Barrera, Taylor Jones
Notable Losses
- Michael Lorenzen, Archie Bradley, Touki Toussaint, Matt Duffy, Kurt Suzuki (retired), Hidalgo, Seminaris, Junk, Peguero, Oliver Ortega, Rob Zastryzny
The Angels have made plenty of big splashes over the past decade or so, signing marquee players like Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon and Josh Hamilton, as well as acquiring and extending Justin Upton. When combined with Mike Trout and Ohtani, there’s been no shortage of stars in Anaheim. But a lack of depth for injuries has often prevented the club from capitalizing on all that talent. Their last winning season was 2015 and their last postseason appearance was the year prior to that. This offseason, they seemed to try a different tack, signing three different players to modest multi-year deals, as well as a few one-year contracts and trades for players with one year of remaining control.
The first significant move was signing left-hander Tyler Anderson. The 33-year-old was hurt for much of the early part of his career, only reaching the 115-inning mark once by the end of 2020. He then had a healthy and decent season in 2021, posting a 4.53 ERA over 167 innings between the Pirates and Mariners. After signing with the Dodgers for 2022, he went on to have easily the best season of his career. He logged 178 2/3 innings, a career high, and also got his ERA all the way down to 2.57. His 19.5% strikeout rate and 40.1% ground ball rate were both a few ticks shy of average, but he kept runners off the basepaths with a tiny 4.8% walk rate.
Based on that strong season, the Dodgers extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to him. That must have proved pretty tempting for Anderson, considering he made $8MM in 2022 and was never higher than $2.5MM in any season prior to that. However, before his decision window was even up, the Angels swooped in and gave him a three-year, $39MM deal. That was a big development for the club, as the last time they gave a multi-year deal to a free-agent starter was a two-year deal for Joe Blanton going into 2013. There’s some risk here for the Angels, as Anderson’s track record of success is not long. He was also likely helped by a .256 batting average on balls in play last year, but his 3.31 FIP and 4.04 SIERA still indicate he’s a fine addition to the middle of their rotation.
The starting rotation has often been one of the weaker points of the roster in Anaheim, though that might not be the case this year. The club had some young pitchers take steps forward last year and seem positioned to go into 2023 on strong footing there. Back in September, MLBTR’s Steve Adams looked at the developments of lefties Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez. Sandoval finished the year with a 2.91 ERA over 27 starts, Suarez a 3.96 over 20 starts and two relief outings, and Detmers a 3.77 ERA over 25 starts.
Those three lefties figure to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation alongside Anderson and Ohtani, giving them a solid front five. The club has gone with a six-man rotation in recent years in order to lighten Ohtani’s overall workload, but that might not be the case this year. Manager Phil Nevin recently suggested they could go with a five-man group for much of the year, only occasionally leaning on a swingman when needed. Ohtani had Tommy John in October 2018, which wiped out his 2019 and most of his 2020. He got up to 130 1/3 innings in 2021 and then 166 last year. Perhaps he could push himself even farther this year, lessening the need for a strict sixth starter. Pitcher injuries are fairly inevitable, however, and the club will eventually need to turn to another starter. Options on the 40-man include Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth and Chris Rodriguez.
In addition to adding Anderson to the rotation, the club also bolstered its bullpen with right-hander Carlos Estévez and left-hander Matt Moore. Estévez has been on a good run over the past four years, outside of a rough showing in the shortened 2020 season. Since the start of 2019, he’s made 223 appearances with a 4.28 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 38.4% ground ball rate. Considering he played his home games at Coors Field and posted a 7.50 ERA in 2020, that’s a pretty good stretch on the whole, and the velocity on his heater and woeful results against his offspeed pitches in 2022 could point to further upside.
As for Moore, his attempts to continue as a starter didn’t go well in recent years, posting an overall 5.26 ERA from 2015 to 2021. But a full-time move to the bullpen last year seemed to suit him, as he tossed 74 innings with a 1.95 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate. He likely won’t sustain a .257 batting average on balls in play or 81.1% strand rate, but his 2.98 FIP and 3.69 SIERA still point to a solid season overall.
Estévez might jump into the closer’s role that was vacated when the Halos dealt Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta at last year’s deadline. However, he could have some competition from Jimmy Herget, who seemed to have a breakout last year. Herget took over the closer’s role with Iglesias gone, finishing the year with nine saves and a 2.48 ERA. Estévez, Herget and Moore should be joined at the back end of the club’s bullpen by veteran holdovers Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup.
On the position player side of things, the Angels made three key upgrades. Gio Urshela was added to the infield, Hunter Renfroe to the outfield, while Brandon Drury can potentially help in both areas. Urshela was acquired from the Twins so that Minnesota can make way for younger players like José Miranda. He struggled in 2021 but has been an above-average hitter in three of the past four years. In 2022, Urshela hit 13 home runs and slashed .285/.338/.429 for a wRC+ of 119. He mostly played third base but has also seen some brief time at the other infield positions in his career. He’ll allow the club to manage Rendon’s workload after he has missed significant time over the past two years.
If both players are healthy and productive, perhaps Urshela is moved around the diamond. First base is a bit of a question mark right now after Jared Walsh required surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome last year. The middle infield is also a bit uncertain based on 2022. Luis Rengifo was slightly above average at the plate but was graded poorly on defense at both middle infield spots. David Fletcher was the opposite, getting good marks for his glovework but suffering through a rough year at the plate.
Urshela could potentially take some playing time away from any of those players, as could Drury. The well-traveled utilityman has occasionally shown flashes of talent throughout his career but could never quite put it together, often due to injuries. However, 2022 was the year everything finally clicked for Drury. Between the Reds and the Padres, he hit 28 home runs and produced a .263/.320/.492 batting line for a 123 wRC+. He also continued to be incredibly versatile, spending time at all four infield positions. He only had one inning in the outfield last year but has a tally of 965 2/3 frames out there in his career. The middle infield picture is murky but they have six players for four spots on the infield overall in Rendon, Walsh, Drury, Urshela, Fletcher and Rengifo. Even if a couple of them are hurt or underperforming, they could still be okay given that most of them can play multiple positions. Walsh could also spend some time in the outfield, if need be.
Speaking of the outfield, the club parted with Brandon Marsh at last year’s deadline and saw continued struggles from Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak. They already had two spots spoken for with Trout and Taylor Ward, but added a third reliable option in Renfroe. His power is his only standout tool but he’s certainly strong in that department. He’s hit 60 home runs over the past two seasons, while providing defense around an average level. His walk and strikeout rates have also been roughly in line with league averages. He’ll add some thump to the lineup without really hurting elsewhere.
Between Anderson, Estévez, Moore, Urshela, Drury and Renfroe, the club has supplemented their rotation, bullpen, infield and outfield. On the whole, it’s a nice series of additions that don’t totally remake the club but nonetheless decreases the chance of a few injuries totally tanking the season. They’ve also made few long-term commitments, as Anderson’s deal is the longest at three years. Drury and Estévez are on the books through 2024 while Moore, Urshela and Renfroe are all impending free agents. The acquisition costs for both Urshela and Renfroe were low because of their limited control and arbitration salaries around the eight-figure mark. They also added Brett Phillips on a one-year deal to serve as an outfielder who can provide some speed and defense off the bench.
One area of the roster the club didn’t address was catcher. They were linked to Willson Contreras in the offseason before he signed with the Cardinals, but they ultimately decided to stick with in-house options. The primary candidates for big league playing time are Max Stassi and Logan O’Hoppe. Stassi has been considered a strong defender behind the plate and seemed to take a step forward with the bat over 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, he took a big step back last year, hitting .180/.267/.303. His strong run in the previous two years landed him an extension that runs through 2024, but he’ll now have to jockey for playing time with O’Hoppe. The youngster came over from the Phillies in the Marsh trade and had a tremendous season. Between the two organizations, he hit .283/.416/.544 in Double-A last year for a 159 wRC+. He still has no Triple-A experience, but O’Hoppe was a top-100 prospect who got a major league call-up late last year and seems poised to stick in the big leagues. Should he struggle and require some more time in the minors, the Angels also have Matt Thaiss on the 40-man and some non-roster invitees.
All in all, the Angels are going into the season with no glaring holes. There’s some uncertainty here and there, but many fallback options all over what looks to be a deep roster. The greater uncertainty is when looking at things from a distance. Owner Arte Moreno announced in August that he would explore a sale of the team, but then a further announcement in January revealed he had backed off of that pursuit. That gets rid of the uncertainty about the ownership question but that development hasn’t been viewed favorably by all, as Moreno is a divisive figure among the club’s fans. On the one hand, he’s frequently signed off on aggressive payrolls as the club aims to build a competitive teaam around Trout. On the other hand, he has a reputation for meddling in baseball decisions in a way that hasn’t served the club well.
The plan for the manager’s chair will also have to be figured out going forward. Joe Maddon was fired in June. Phil Nevin took over an interim basis and inked a one-year extension in October, so he’ll stick around for 2023. The club was for sale at that time and it was seen by many as a stopgap hire, with a more long-term plan getting kicked down the road until a new owner was in place, either with Nevin or some other skipper. Now that the sale is off, the Angels will have to figure out if Nevin is their guy or if they feel the need to look elsewhere.
The Angels will surely be hoping that this is the year Trout and Ohtani finally get to play in the playoffs together, but it won’t be a cakewalk. They are still looking up at the reigning World Series champion Astros as the heavyweight in the division. On top of that, the Mariners are fresh off breaking their own postseason drought, while the Rangers have been incredibly aggressive in their own attempts to return to contention.
If things don’t go according to plan and the Angels fall shy of contention yet again, they would be positioned to reload for the future in a big way at the deadline. As mentioned, Renfroe, Urshela and Moore are all impending free agents, as is Tepera and, of course, Ohtani. If he were to be made available, he would be among the most attractive deadline trade candidates in history. The club could always sign him to an extension that locks him up for the rest of his career, but there’s been little to suggest such a deal is close to a reality. The two-way superstar has expressed his desire to win, and a strong season from the club could potentially increase the chances of keeping him around. However, by the time that comes to fruition, he would be so close to the open market that it would likely be harder to pull him back from the brink.
The Angels did a lot of good things to patch up their roster for 2023, but the future still seems uncertain. The upcoming campaign could be a huge pivot point for the franchise.
How would you grade the Angels’ offseason? (Link to poll)
How would you grade the Angels' offseason?
B
50.67%
(1,317 votes)
C
24.36%
(633 votes)
A
15.31%
(398 votes)
D
6.31%
(164 votes)
F
3.35%
(87 votes)
Total Votes: 2,599
In conjunction with the Angels’ Offseason In Review, we held a team-specific chat on March 2. Click here to read the transcript.
The Opener: Rodriguez, Lefty Relief, Offseason Reviews
With Opening Day just four weeks away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Rodriguez to make spring debut for the Orioles:
Top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez will be making his spring debut for the Orioles today, the team as announced. Rodriguez has long been considered one of the very top prospects in the game, and is now fully healthy after missing three months with a lat strain in 2022. Orioles GM Mike Elias has made clear that Rodriguez will have every opportunity to make the Opening Day rotation in 2023, leaving this outing as the beginning of Rodriguez’s quest to both rise to that challenge and stay healthy in doing so. Rodriguez’s start, which will be caught by fellow star youngster Adley Rutschman, will come at 12:05pm CT this afternoon.
2. Lefty Relief Market Update
The market for left-handed relievers seemed to be kicking into gear at the start of Spring Training, when Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore landed in Arizona and Anaheim, respectively. That never fully came to fruition, though, as Zack Britton, Will Smith, and Brad Hand all continue to linger on the market. Each lefty has a long track record of success and plenty of late inning experience, but struggled to some extent in 2022: Britton with injury, Smith prior to his trade to the Astros, and Hand down the stretch.
Britton held a workout for six teams last month, potentially revealing some insight into his market. It’s been quieter on Smith and Hand, though speculatively speaking, the Guardians could show some increased interest in any of the remaining southpaws after reliever Sam Hentges was shut down due to a shoulder issue. Hentges, who had a breakout showing in 2022, was the only lefty locked into a spot in manager Terry Francona’s bullpen.
3. Offseason In Review Series
As MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series continues, a pair of team-specific chats are set to be held today: one regarding Anthony Franco’s review of Arizona’s offseason, and one regarding Darragh McDonald’s review of the Angels offseason, which will be posted later today. Anthony’s Diamondbacks chat will take place at 5pm CT, while Darragh’s Angels chat will be at noon CT. Those links will allow you to submit a question in advance, take you to the live chats when they begin, and allow you to read the transcripts once they have been completed. Be sure to keep an eye out for both chats this afternoon!
Padres To Sign Rougned Odor
The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent second baseman Rougned Odor, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Odor, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, has already arrived at Padres camp this morning, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com.
Odor and the Padres agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, tweets Cassavell. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds that Odor still needs to pass a physical before the deal becomes official. That process will get underway shortly.
Odor, still just 29, reached the big leagues as a 20-year-old with the Rangers back in 2014 and, by 2016, looked like one of baseball’s best young second basemen. To that point in his career, he’d slashed .265/.302/.464 while steadily increasing his power output. Odor belted 33 home runs in 2016, offsetting a woeful 3.0% walk rate and .296 OBP with huge power, solid bat-to-ball skills and quality defense at second base.
That ability to make contact has waned over the years, however, and Odor’s production at the plate has been dismal of late. Dating back to 2019, he’s a .201/.274/.398 hitter (78 wRC+). He’s begun to take more walks, but his 7.6% rate over the past four seasons is still below average. Meanwhile, his once better-than-average strikeout rate has ballooned to 27.8% since ’19. He did improve on that front with the Orioles last year (23.1%), but the 2022 season also included Odor’s lowest power output since his rookie season (13 home runs in 472 plate appearances, .150 ISO).
San Diego currently projects to have right-handed bats at third base (Manny Machado), shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) and second base (Ha-Seong Kim), as well as an all-right-handed bench (Luis Campusano, Jose Azocar, Adam Engel, Brandon Dixon). Odor will compete for a spot as a lefty option off the bench, joining non-roster veterans like David Dahl, Preston Tucker, Alfonso Rivas and Max Schrock in that regard. He’ll also give the Padres some depth during the World Baseball Classic, with both Kim and Bogaerts away from the club representing their respective countries.
The agreement between the Padres and Odor marks yet another reunion between a former Ranger farmhand and Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who previously was an assistant GM in Texas. Over the past several years under Preller, the Padres have also taken looks at veterans such as Jurickson Profar, Ian Kinsler, Nomar Mazara, Keone Kela, Mitch Moreland, Carl Edwards Jr. and Luis Sardinas — among many others. The current roster features former Rangers Yu Darvish, Nelson Cruz and Nick Martinez.
Liberty Media Releases Braves’ Financials For 2022
Liberty Media, the corporation which owns the Braves, is a publicly traded company. As a result, they’re one of two teams (the Blue Jays being the other) whose books are opened to the public. This morning, Liberty Media released 2022 financials. The full report is available courtesy of Investors Observer and chronicled by Doug Roberson of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
According to the report, Liberty Media collected a franchise-record $588MM in Braves-related revenue last year. That’s a $20MM jump over 2021’s previous franchise-record figure, which the corporation attributed to increased ticket demand and additional retail on the heels of Atlanta’s World Series championship.
The franchise’s operating income before debt and amortization (OIBDA), on the other hand, was down relative to last season. Its $71MM OIBDA was down from last year’s $104MM figure. The corporation reported an operating loss of $15MM after reporting $20MM in operating income during the prior season. However, those figures do not include revenue from the Battery Atlanta, a mixed-use development complex adjacent to Truist Park and owned by Liberty Media. Liberty Media reported $28MM in additional net operating income and $53MM in total revenues related to that project.
Regarding the related figures to the Braves franchise specifically, Liberty Media attributed the comparatively lower OIBDA and operating income to loftier revenue sharing expenses and a higher player payroll. Indeed, Atlanta’s Opening Day payroll checked in around a franchise-record $178MM in 2022 after sitting at approximately $131MM in 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
However, another significant change for the organization between 2021 and ’22 was the club’s postseason fortune. The Braves, of course, won the championship in the former season and benefited from eight playoff home games. Their defeat in last year’s NL Division Series kept them to two postseason home contests. As a result, Liberty Media reported significantly lower fourth quarter revenues in 2022 than they had the prior season. Barring a repeat World Series run, the franchise’s playoff-related income always seemed likely to regress.
The Braves are coming off a very quiet offseason, at least from a free agent perspective. Atlanta acquired catcher Sean Murphy and promptly signed him to a six-year, $73MM extension. That was their only notable investment of the offseason. The club’s only other major league acquisitions were relievers Joe Jiménez and Lucas Luetge (combined $4.315MM in arbitration salaries), low-cost free agent deals for outfielder Jordan Luplow ($1.4MM) and reliever Nick Anderson ($875K if in the majors) and trades for pre-arbitration players like Eli White and Sam Hilliard.
Atlanta saw a top free agent depart for the second consecutive offseason, watching Dansby Swanson sign with the Cubs a year after Freddie Freeman went to the Dodgers. Despite the fairly quiet winter, they’re easily on track to again set a franchise high in player spending. The Braves will go into 2023 with a payroll in the $199MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax number sits a little under $240MM, which will exceed this year’s $233MM base threshold. The franchise looks set to pay the luxury tax for the first time in Liberty Media’s ownership tenure.
That’s a reflection of the staggering number of contracts already on the books, many of them early-career extensions. No other organization has had the same kind of success signing key players to long-term deals shortly after their MLB debuts. Those kinds of pacts tend to be backloaded to roughly mirror how a player’s earnings would have progressed via arbitration. Not coincidentally, Atlanta already has upwards of $90MM on the books through the 2028 campaign.
The Red Sox’s Catching Question
For the first time in a half-decade, the Red Sox enter a season with questions about who’ll take the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate. Christian Vázquez has been their Opening Day starter in each of the last five years. His trade to Houston at last summer’s deadline and subsequent three-year free agent signing with the Twins ensures Boston will have to find a new solution in 2023.
The Sox currently have just two catchers on their 40-man roster. Boston brought in Reese McGuire in a trade with the White Sox just hours after shipping Vázquez out last August. The former first-round draftee finished the season well, hitting .337/.377/.500 with a trio of home runs in 36 games with Boston. It was an excellent first impression for the 27-year-old (28 tomorrow) but an outlier in the broader context of his career. In 566 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and White Sox prior to the trade, McGuire had hit .241/.286/.359 with only nine longballs.
McGuire hasn’t had many consistent opportunities to get into a groove against MLB pitching. Before last season, he’d never appeared in even half a team’s games. He’s generally had a strong defensive reputation, though. McGuire has rated as an above-average pitch framer in each of the past two seasons, per Statcast. In just under 1600 career innings behind the dish, he’s thrown out a very strong 31.4% of would-be basestealers.
Connor Wong looks like the early favorite to split time with McGuire at Fenway Park. The other catcher on the 40-man, he’s only played in 33 big league games over the past two seasons. Part of the Mookie Betts trade return from the Dodgers, the 26-year-old Wong has put up an impressive .276/.327/.471 line in 131 games for Triple-A Worcester. That included a particularly strong .288/.349/.489 showing with 15 homers across 355 plate appearances for the WooSox last season.
There’s reason for optimism regarding both McGuire and Wong, though there’s obvious risk in relying on either as a regular considering neither have proven themselves over a full season against MLB competition. McGuire hits left-handed and Wong swings from the right side. That’d seemingly raise the possibility of mixing and matching based on pitcher handedness, though manager Alex Cora pushed back against that this afternoon. “It’s not a strict platoon situation,” Cora said (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe). “Wong can hit righties, too, and Reese can hit lefties. We’ll see how we do it. We’ll see what the roster is and we’ll make decisions.”
The Sox shied away from any significant catching additions this offseason. Boston didn’t add anyone on a major league free agent deal or via trade. Former Marlin and Padre Jorge Alfaro was brought aboard via non-roster pact. Alfaro brings some more experience to camp and looks like the top depth option in the organization. That he was limited to minor league offers this winter hints at the strikeout and defensive questions that have dogged him throughout his career. Alfaro is a .256/.305/.396 hitter with a 34.1% strikeout rate in parts of seven MLB campaigns. He has excellent arm strength but typically posts below-average marks as a receiver.
Former top prospect Ronaldo Hernández and Caleb Hamilton, claimed off waivers from the Twins at the start of the offseason, are also in the organization as non-roster players. Each has upper level experience but has gone unclaimed on waivers this winter and seems clearly behind McGuire and Wong on the roster.
It’s possible Boston looks to augment the catching depth before Opening Day, perhaps by targeting a veteran currently on a minor league deal elsewhere but who doesn’t crack an MLB roster. The Guardians, as one example, have each of Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria and Zack Collins on non-roster pacts battling for a backup job this spring. Gary Sánchez is the top remaining free agent catcher. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week the Red Sox hadn’t had any contact with their longtime division rival.
The Braves’ Fifth Starter Competition
Coming off a 101-win campaign, the Braves again look like one of the top teams in the National League. There aren’t many areas of concern on the roster. On the position player side, all but shortstop and left field have established solutions who should play at somewhere between an above-average and star level if healthy. The bullpen is one of the sport’s best, and the top four starters of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is elite.
There is a little bit of uncertainty as to who’ll round out the starting staff, however. Atlanta has a handful of pitchers vying for the final rotation spot in Spring Training. A couple have had some big league success but struggled with underperformance or injury recently. Another is a less proven, younger talent.
At this time a year ago, it’d have seemed foolish to picture Anderson fighting for a rotation spot at any point in the near future. Heading into 2022, the former third overall pick carried a 3.25 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate in 30 career regular season starts. He’d twice excelled on the postseason stage. Anderson looked like an upper mid-rotation arm, a key starter both in the present and over the coming seasons.
The 2022 campaign was the first in which the righty ran into trouble. He made 22 big league starts but allowed five earned runs per nine innings across 111 2/3 frames. Anderson’s strikeout rate fell to a personal-low 19.7% clip, although he still picked up swinging strikes on an above-average 12.3% of his total offerings. While he did a solid job keeping the ball on the ground, he surrendered a little more hard contact than he had in prior seasons. Anderson also walked a career-high 11% of opposing hitters.
With Atlanta in the thick of a division race, they optioned the struggling Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett in early August. He started four games there, posting similar numbers as he had in the majors. His season was cut short when he strained his left oblique in the middle of September.
Anderson is just 24 years old and certainly capable of bouncing back from the down year. His average fastball velocity was down marginally last year but still checked in at a solid 94 MPH. He owns one of the game’s better changeups. Anderson’s curveball was a little less effective, with the lack of an impact breaking ball contributing to a disappointing .313/.375/.511 line in 253 plate appearances against same-handed hitters last season. Anderson told reporters last week he’s working on a new slider to try to add a weapon to deal with righty batters (link via David O’Brien of the Athletic).
A fifth-round pick out of Texas in 2020, Elder flew through the minor leagues. He was in the majors by April of his second full professional season. The 6’2″ righty started nine of his first ten MLB contests, posting a 3.17 ERA through 54 innings. That came with strikeout and walk numbers each a bit worse than league average (20.7% and 10.1%, respectively) but a quality 49.3% ground-ball percentage.
He had a longer run in Gwinnett, starting 17 of 18 games. Elder’s 4.46 ERA in 105 Triple-A innings wasn’t as impressive as his MLB run prevention mark, but his peripherals were stronger across the board. He punched out 22.2% of opponents, kept walks to a 7.3% clip and racked up grounders at a 55.9% rate.
The 23-year-old isn’t overpowering, averaging only 90.7 MPH on his sinker during his MLB action. He consistently kept the ball down in the minor leagues, though, posting grounder numbers on over half the batted balls he allowed at every stop. Elder almost carried that over against big league competition in his first crack and should some aptitude for avoiding hard contact — thanks in large part to a cutter and slider he was comfortable deploying against lefties and righties alike.
Soroka, another ground-ball specialist, was one of the sport’s top young pitchers not too long ago. An All-Star at 21, he finished sixth in NL Cy Young balloting after posting a 2.68 ERA through 28 starts as a rookie in 2019. That came on the strength of an excellent 51.2% grounder percentage and tiny 5.8% walk rate, with Soroka demonstrating rare polish for a pitcher his age.
Unfortunately, a brutal series of injuries has limited him to three big league outings since then. Those came in the abbreviated 2020 season before he blew out his right Achilles. After a year of rehab, the same thing happened again shortly before he could make his return to a mound. He lost all of 2021 and almost all of ’22 recovering. Soroka returned from the injured list to start five Triple-A games late last year but felt some soreness in his elbow — not unexpected for a pitcher coming off such a long layoff — and was shut down for precautionary reasons.
While the Achilles and elbow concerns are hopefully behind him, Soroka has again been slowed up by his body this spring. He experienced some hamstring soreness that’ll delay his getting into Spring Training games for a few weeks. It’s not believed to be a major concern, but the righty candidly called it “a kick in the groin” given how much work he’s put in rehabbing from other injuries the past few seasons. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to fully build up for Opening Day.
Other Possibilities
It looks as if the early battle for the fifth starter job comes down to one of the three pitchers above (with Soroka perhaps behind the others given his hamstring issue). However, a few others could find themselves in position to vie for reps at some point during the season, particularly if one or two of Atlanta’s top four starters suffers an injury.
Kolby Allard, a former Braves first-round pick, was acquired back from the Rangers at the start of the winter for Jake Odorizzi. He has a 6.07 ERA in 65 big league contests but occupies a 40-man roster spot. The same is true of Darius Vines, whose contract was selected at the start of the offseason to keep him from the Rule 5 draft. He’s never pitched in the majors but posted a 3.95 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate over 20 Double-A starts to earn a late-season bump to Gwinnett.
Former Cubs righty Matt Swarmer signed a minor league deal over the weekend and is in camp as a non-roster invitee. 2020 first-rounder Jared Shuster had an impressive start at Double-A before a more average performance in Gwinnett last season. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster and one of the better prospects in a now-thin Atlanta farm system.
Royals Sign Jackie Bradley Jr. To Minor League Deal
The Royals announced that they have signed outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Bradley, 33 next month, has spent the past decade as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. He has career tallies of 74 Defensive Runs Saved and 58 Outs Above Average, in addition to a grade of 53.2 from Ultimate Zone Rating. All three of those totals place Bradley in the top 10 among all outfielders in the game, dating back to his 2013 debut.
His offensive contributions have been less consistent, however. He seemed to have a breakout with the Red Sox back in 2015 and 2016, hitting .262/.345/.489 over that stretch for a wRC+ of 119. But over the next three seasons, he settled in as a below-average hitter. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .234/.318/.409 for a wRC+ of 90. That was 10% below league average for that stretch but he still proved valuable given his work on the grass.
Bradley then had a well-timed spike in 2020, just as he was about to reach free agency. He slashed .283/.364/.450 that year, leading to a wRC+ of 118 and a two-year, $24MM contract with the Brewers. Unfortunately, Bradley’s offense has nosedived since the moment that deal was signed. He hit just .163/.236/.261 in 2021, 37 wRC+, and then was flipped back to Boston for 2022. The return to familiar environs didn’t help much as he continued to struggle, got released and then signed with the Blue Jays. Between the two clubs, he hit .203/.255/.311, a slight bounceback to a wRC+ of 56 but still far below league average. Despite all those struggles at the plate, JBJ can still go get in in the field. He was worth 5 DRS, 8 OAA and 6.0 UZR last year, despite making only 98 starts.
The Royals traded from their center field depth this offseason, sending Michael A. Taylor to the Twins for some minor league pitching. That seemed to open up the spot for Drew Waters to get an extended audition, but he recently suffered an oblique strain and seems poised to miss the start of the season. Manager Matt Quatraro said at the time of the Waters injury that Kyle Isbel will “get every opportunity to grab that spot,” but Bradley’s presence in camp will give the Royals a glove-first veteran fallback option.
