Carson Kelly Diagnosed With Fractured Forearm
Diamondbacks catcher Carson Kelly has a right fractured forearm, manager Torey Lovullo tells Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. The backstop had left yesterday’s game after being hit by a pitch. Lovullo did not provide an estimated timeline for Kelly’s recovery, but he will be facing a significant absence.
Kelly, 28, came over from the Cardinals as part of the December 2018 Paul Goldschmidt trade and has been the club’s primary backstop for the past four seasons. While his defense and framing have generally been solid in that time, his offense has run hot and cold from year to year. In both 2019 and 2021, he posted double-digit home run totals and walked in more than 12% of his trips to the plate. His wRC+ was 107 in 2019 and 103 in 2021, indicating he was a bit above average in each season. Since catchers tend to hit a bit less than other players, that’s decent production.
But he struggled both in the shortened 2020 season and in 2022. Last year, he hit just seven home runs in 354 plate appearances and walked 8.2% of the time, leading to a batting line of .211/.282/.334. His 73 wRC+ indicates that he was 27% below league average at the plate for the year.
Kelly still has a couple of years of arbitration control remaining, but general manager Mike Hazen indicated in October that the club could look to upgrade behind the plate. That eventually came to pass a couple of months later when they acquired prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. from the Blue Jays, sending Daulton Varsho the other way. Moreno is considered one of the top prospects in the league but has just 25 games of major league experience under his belt. Kelly was still likely to see significant action, splitting the catching duties with Moreno as the youngster got acclimated to his new club, but that won’t be the case for the next little while.
It seems then that Moreno, 23, could be ticketed for a larger role in the majors. As mentioned, he got a brief taste of the big leagues with the Jays last year, hitting .319/.356/.377 in his first 73 plate appearances. Despite the limited track record, there are reasons to feel good about Moreno going forward. He’s never hit for much power or drawn many walks in the minors, but he’s very difficult to strike out and always runs high batting averages. His defense is also well regarded, leading to him currently being considered the #12 prospect in the league at Baseball America.
The only other catcher on the club’s 40-man roster is José Herrera. The 26-year-old has shown some promise in the minors but has far less prospect pedigree than Moreno. He’s hit .277/.377/.426 in 120 games between Double-A and Triple-A over the past two years. However, his 47-game MLB debut last year resulted in a showing of just .189/.250/.207.
Kelly wasn’t likely to be the most integral member of the Diamondbacks’ roster, but his injury does put them in a bit of a precarious position. Moreno is an exciting young player but he’s inexperienced and new to the organization, presumably still getting familiar with the pitching staff. Herrera, meanwhile, is more of a depth option who could be pushed up to the big league squad. The club has struggled in recent seasons but has been pegged as a potential dark horse contender this year given their slate of current prospects and recent graduates, including Moreno, Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt. Their catching depth behind the plate has now taken a hit, though there’s also a clear path forward now for Moreno to have a breakout.
The D’Backs have some depth options on hand via minor league deals, including P.J. Higgins, Ali Sánchez and Juan Centeno. Those players will all presumably move up one rung on the depth chart for now. If the club feels they need to add to that group, it’s possible that some players will get cut from other teams as final roster decisions are made in the coming days.
Paul DeJong Likely To Open Season On Injured List
Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong has been dealing with some back tightness of late and suffered a setback yesterday. He told Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he was planning to serve as the club’s designated hitter today but now doubts he’ll get into a game before camp breaks. He said he can’t flex or rotate his spine without pain. Since Opening Day is now just over a week away, he seems destined for a trip to the injured list to begin the year.
It’s an unfortunate start to the season for DeJong, one that figures to be important for him. He’s headed into the final guaranteed season of the six-year, $26MM extension he signed prior to the 2018 campaign. At that time, he was coming off an excellent rookie season in 2017 in which he hit 25 home runs and slashed .285/.325/.532 for a wRC+ of 123.
Unfortunately, his offense has been trending down in each season since then. His wRC+ dropped to 103 and then 101 in the first two years of that deal, then 87 and 85 in the next two, before dropping to a dismal 55 last year. He struck out in 33.3% of his plate appearances in 2022 and finished with a batting line of .157/.245/.286. Tommy Edman took over the shortstop job and DeJong was even optioned to the minors for over two months in the middle of last summer. Edman hit .265/.324/.400 last year for a wRC+ of 108 and earned strong grades across the board for his shortstop defense.
Despite the struggles at the plate, DeJong is well suited for a backup infield role given his own defense. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have always been fond of his glovework and that has continued to be the case. Outs Above Average had mixed feelings about DeJong’s early career work but gave him a +4 in 2021 and a +5 last year.
DeJong is set to make $9MM this season, which is certainly a high price to pay for a backup infielder. But the money is already committed and his work in the field is good, so there’s little harm in keeping him around as a bench piece. He has now surpassed five years of service time, meaning he can no longer be optioned to the minors without his consent. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated in December that the club planned to keep DeJong, saying that they’re “not ready to cut bait” on him. The Marlins reportedly had some trade talks with the Cards about DeJong this winter but it didn’t seem much progress was made.
The extension that DeJong originally signed has a pair of club options. There’s a $12.5MM option for 2024 with a $2MM buyout and a $15MM option for 2025 with a $1MM buyout. There was a time when those options would have seemed like bargains but they now seem highly unlikely to be picked up. DeJong would have to produce an incredible offensive turnaround for it to even be a consideration this year, which will be hard to pull off while serving in a part-time role. Injuries to other players could potentially open up more playing time for him down the road, but DeJong is the one hurt at the moment.
While it doesn’t seem like DeJong is going to be out for an extended stretch of time, the Cards will still have a bit less depth in the middle infield until he recovers. Edman should be the everyday shortstop, with Brendan Donovan likely at second base on most days. Donovan can also play elsewhere, including shortstop, which could open up some more playing time for Nolan Gorman. If they want another middle infielder on the team, they could select a non-roster invitee like Taylor Motter, who is having a nice spring. José Fermín is on the 40-man but was recently shut down for a few weeks with a quad strain. But if the Cards feel the trio of Edman, Donovan and Gorman is enough cover until DeJong gets back, perhaps that opens a bench spot for an outfielder like Alec Burleson.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.
Five BHPs In The News
Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510
This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.
Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472
Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.
Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544
Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.
Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440
The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.
Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA
Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.
Three More
Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.
Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.
Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.
Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Barger, Lopez, Lukes
Left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu, now nine months out from last summer’s Tommy John surgery, is throwing from 90 to 120 feet and still aiming for a mid-July return to the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, writes Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. He’s throwing off flat ground for now but could progress to mound work by mid-April. The timeline aligns with the goal that Ryu stated back in December, but it’s positive development that he’s progressed through his spring throwing program without setbacks and hasn’t had to push that goal further down the road.
Ryu, who’ll turn 36 later this week, is entering the final season of a four-year, $80MM contract signed prior to the 2020 season. He finished third in AL Cy Young voting during the shortened ’20 campaign and gave the Jays 31 roughly average starts in 2021 before an elbow injury limited him to 27 innings and resulted in surgery last June. If he’s indeed able to return at any point midsummer, he could be a boon to a rotation that currently is hoping for rebounds from fourth and fifth starters Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. Each of Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and offseason signee Chris Bassitt delivered strong results in 2022, and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is looming as an option at some point in 2023 as well.
Turning to more immediate matters on the roster, the Blue Jays announced last night that they’ve optioned infielder Addison Barger to Triple-A, thinning the race for the team’s final bench spot in the process. Barger, a sixth-round pick in 2018, was selected to the 40-man roster back in November on the heels of a combined .308/.378/.555 showing across three minor league levels. He had a nice Grapefruit League showing, batting .294/.351/.441 in 37 trips to the plate, but the 23-year-old still has just eight regular-season games at the Triple-A level under his belt.
Barger ranks as the club’s No. 4 prospect Baseball America and landed at No. 53 on FanGraphs’ Top 100 prospect rankings heading into the 2023 season. He’s undoubtedly viewed as a key piece for the Jays in the future, but the infield already has veterans Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette and Whit Merrifield lined up from third base to second base, to say nothing of bench options like Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio in the mix for at-bats. As such, Barger will head to Buffalo and continue to get regular reps that might not be available to him at the MLB level.
With Barger out of the mix for now, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that it’s likely either infielder/outfielder Otto Lopez or outfielder Nathan Lukes will claim the team’s final bench spot. Lopez, 24, went 5-for-17 with a homer, a triple and a walk playing for Canada in the World Baseball Classic and is 7-for-15 with a double and a triple in Jays camp this spring. He’s primarily been a middle infielder in the minors but has at least 500 innings in both left field and center field in his professional career. Lukes, who has yet to make his MLB debut, is hitting .278/.342/.389 in 41 spring plate appearances and can play all three outfield spots. He’d give a righty-heavy Toronto lineup another left-handed bat, whereas Lopez is another right-handed stick.
Offseason In Review Chat: San Diego Padres
MLBTR will be hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry of our Offseason In Review series. Yesterday, we released the Padres’ entry in the series. Click here to read the transcript of the Padres-centric chat.
Astros Notes: Brantley, Yordan, Gage, Bullpen
Astros left fielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley will likely begin the season on the injured list, manager Dusty Baker confirmed to reporters this morning (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Baker also announced that fellow left fielder/DH Yordan Alvarez will make his spring debut on Thursday after missing all of the team’s Grapefruit League games thus far due to soreness in his left hand. The ‘Stros also optioned lefty reliever Matt Gage to Triple-A this morning, making an all-right-handed bullpen likely to begin the season.
Brantley, 35, underwent season-ending shoulder surgery last summer. He’s yet to appear in a game this spring, although that’s in part due to a pair of leaves he’s taken while tending to an unspecified family matter. Brantley was participating in hitting drills on the field in late February, but the team hasn’t provided a formal timeline for when or whether he’ll get into a spring game.
Houston re-signed Brantley to a one-year, $12MM contract over the winter, setting the stage for his fifth straight year as an Astro. Though the aforementioned shoulder injury limited him to just 277 plate appearances in 64 games last season, he remained productive when healthy, batting .288/.370/.416 with a higher walk rate than strikeout rate (11.2% versus 10.8%). Brantley has long been one of the toughest strikeouts in the game, and he’s been excellent in his four seasons with the Astros: .306/.368/.464 (128 wRC+).
As for Alvarez, the Astros have continually been coy when it comes to revealing much in the way of details on the still-nebulous hand ailment that has bothered the slugger dating back to 2022. Alvarez had soreness in both hands last summer, but Baker has regularly eschewed specifics regarding the injury. Both Baker and GM Dana Brown have continually voiced confidence that Alvarez, who hit .306/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in just 135 games last season, will be ready for Opening Day. A Thursday in-game debut would give him a week’s worth of plate appearances to ramp up.
Turning to the bullpen, Gage was the lone remaining lefty candidate on the spring roster. Both Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski are expected to open the season on the injured list, and Houston opted not to re-sign Will Smith or bring in any of the many free-agent lefties available this winter. It’s always possible that a small trade, waiver claim or free-agent signing alters the calculus between now and Opening Day, but it seems increasingly likely that they simply won’t have a left-handed reliever come Opening Day.
That’s familiar territory for the Astros, who have been regularly light on left-handed bullpen arms in recent seasons. Houston didn’t carry a lefty reliever on its ALDS or ALCS roster during the 2022 postseason, for instance. That hasn’t proven to be a major issues for the Astros, due largely to the strength of their right-handed relievers even in typically disadvantageous platoon spots. Houston’s righty relievers not only lack glaring platoon splits but have dominated left-handed hitters. Each of Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero and closer Ryan Pressly held lefties to a batting average of .205 or lower, an OBP of .287 or lower, and a wOBA of .240 or lower in 2022.
The Opener: WBC, Profar, MLBTR Chats
With just nine days remaining until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. WBC Update
The World Baseball Classic final is today. After a 6-5 walk off win in the bottom of the ninth against Team Mexico, the undefeated Team Japan moves on to the final round to face Team USA. Japan, of course, sports two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, as USA counters with not only Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout, but also Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, who leads all WBC players with four home runs in just 19 at bats. With the game set to air at 6pm CT tonight on FS1, the biggest question remaining is: Will Ohtani pitch? The team has left the answer up in the air publicly, naming lefty Shota Imanaga as the starter for tonight’s game even as Ohtani admits that it would be difficult to get warm in the bullpen while also batting in the heart of the order.
2. When will Profar be made official?
Jurickson Profar, the last top-50 free agent on the market this offseason, recently signed a one-year pact with the Rockies, though Colorado has yet to make the deal official. While the Rockies have a full 40-man roster, making the Profar signing official likely will not be impacted by that, as players such as Brendan Rodgers and Lucas Gilbreath are already ticketed for the 60-day IL. Still, with Profar expected to arrive in camp sometime this week, it seems reasonable to expect the signing to be made official in the coming days as Profar prepares to be the everyday left fielder in Colorado. The timing of the move is also notable given the simple fact that Opening Day is just over a week away. Profar got 16 plate appearances in with the Netherlands during the WBC and went 3-for-13 with a homer and three walks, but he’d still benefit from as many spring at-bats as possible.
3. MLBTR Chats Today
In conjunction with the Padres edition of our Offseason in Review series, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald will be hosting a Padres-centric live chat with readers later today at 10am CT. You can click here to leave a question in advance, and that same link will take you to the chat when it begins or allow you to read the transcript afterwards. In addition, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting his weekly chat with an MLB-wide focus at 1pm CT. You can click here to leave a question, participate live, or read the transcript of Steve’s chat.
Latest On D-Backs’ Rotation
The Diamondbacks entered Spring Training with four rotation spots in place. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are the top two on the staff. Madison Bumgarner will get another crack in the middle, while Arizona brought back Zach Davies on a one-year free agent deal to take a back-end spot.
Who would secure the fifth spot was one of the more interesting decisions for the Snakes in camp. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored in early January, that battle looked likely to come down to four hurlers: Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry and Brandon Pfaadt. Jameson and Nelson, both of whom made their big league debuts late in the 2022 season, seemed the early favorites.
That indeed now appears to be a two-person race. Arizona reassigned Pfaadt, who is not yet on the 40-man roster, to minor league camp over the weekend. They optioned Henry to Triple-A Reno this afternoon, taking him out of consideration for an Opening Day job as well.
Neither Jameson nor Nelson has done much to seize the job this spring. The former has allowed eight runs in 9 2/3 innings, while the latter has been tagged for nine runs in the same amount of work. Jameson has at least managed a solid 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while Nelson’s 10:6 mark is less impressive.
Both pitchers fared well in very limited MLB looks last year. Jameson made four starts and posted a microscopic 1.48 ERA through 24 1/3 innings. That came with an excellent 56.1% grounder percentage and above-average strikeout and walk numbers. It was a very strong debut effort but won’t completely erase concerns about the ghastly 6.95 ERA he’d posted over the 114 Triple-A innings he’d thrown prior to his promotion. Reno is among the hardest places in affiliated ball to pitch, which certainly didn’t do him any favors. That said, some prospect evaluators have suggested the Ball State product is likelier to settle into a bullpen role than a rotation because of concerns about his command.
Nelson has had some relief concerns himself, though he’s generally credited for more advanced command than Jameson. He doesn’t throw quite as hard and didn’t miss as many bats in his brief big league look as Jameson did. Nelson had similarly strong bottom line numbers in a cup of coffee, however, allowing four runs in 18 1/3 big league frames. Over 136 innings in Reno, he’d posted a 5.43 ERA with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers.
Henry had the most MLB work of this group in 2022, starting nine games. He didn’t find the early success of Jameson or Nelson, pitching to a 5.36 ERA with below-average strikeout and walk rates in 47 innings. Henry allowed 11 runs in 16 1/3 frames in camp before being optioned. Pfaadt is arguably held in the highest regard of the bunch but is the only one who hasn’t made his big league debut. The 24-year-old made 19 starts at Double-A Amarillo and 10 with Reno last season, combining for a 3.83 ERA in 167 innings. He allowed five runs with 15 strikeouts and four walks in 12 innings this spring.
Matt Foster Diagnosed With Forearm Strain
The White Sox informed reporters, including James Fegan of The Athletic, that right-hander Matt Foster has a forearm strain in his throwing arm. They didn’t provide an estimated timeline for him today but said they hope to have one by the end of camp.
Foster, 28, was selected by the club in the 20th round of the 2016 draft. He worked his way to the majors and was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2019, to protect him from being selected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. He then went on to have an excellent debut in 2020, posting a 2.20 ERA over 28 2/3 innings. He struck out 28.4% of batters faced that year, walked 8.3% of them and got grounders at a 35.8% clip.
Unfortunately, his results haven’t been quite as good over the past two seasons, as he’s been frequently shuttled to Triple-A and back. In those two seasons, he’s tossed 84 big league innings with a 5.14 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 30% ground ball rate. He’s also tossed 18 2/3 innings in the minors in that time with better results, including a 3.86 ERA, 39% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate.
At this point, it’s unclear what the next steps will be for Foster, but a strain in a pitcher’s throwing arm is always concerning. He will presumably undergo further tests in the coming days and will hopefully get some good news from those.