Dominic Leone Opts Out Of Rangers Deal
Veteran right-handed reliever Dominic Leone has opted out of his minor league contract with the Rangers and will formally become a free agent later today, reports MLBTR’s Anthony Franco (Twitter link).
The 31-year-old Leone has gotten out to a terrific start in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 1.59 ERA with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 innings of work. He’ll shop that strong start around the open market as he looks for a path back to a big league bullpen.
A veteran of nine big league seasons, Leone spent the 2021-22 seasons with the Giants, pitching to a combined 2.71 ERA with a roughly average 23.1% strikeout rate and higher-than-average 10.4% walk rate in 103 innings of relief. His fastball sat at 95.5 mph during that two-year stretch, and he turned in huge marks in terms of swinging-strike rate (15.7%) and opponents’ chase rate (38.4%).
Leone debuted with Seattle in 2014 and has since spent time in Arizona, Toronto, St. Louis and Cleveland in addition to his two years in San Francisco. Overall, he’s logged 356 innings at the Major League level, all coming in relief or as an opener, with a composite 3.69 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 1.06 HR/9 and 43.8% ground-ball rate. That ERA is backed up by matching 3.91 marks from both FIP and SIERA. Leone has 53 career holds and seven saves, including 26 holds and five saves over the past two seasons with the Giants, so he’s accustomed to working in high-leverage spots.
The Rangers rank tenth in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA out of the bullpen, though the final few spots in the Texas relief corps are hardly set in stone. Veteran Ian Kennedy and lefty Cole Ragans have both struggled so far in 2023 (although Kennedy is still missing plenty of bats), while newcomer Yerry Rodriguez has just one inning under his belt so far. The Rangers have gotten solid bottom-line results from Jose Leclerc, Jonathan Hernandez, Will Smith, Josh Sborz, Brock Burke and long man Dane Dunning thus far, though Leclerc’s 18.4% walk rate is a cause for concern.
Texas apparently remains bullish enough on that group that they’ll allow the veteran Leone to return to the market and quite likely latch on with another club. There are numerous teams around the league seeking ‘pen help, and with a nice start to his season in the minors and a solid track record at the MLB level, Leone ought to find another opportunity in short order.
Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?
I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.
Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.
One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.
Rental Players
The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary
Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.
The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.
Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.
Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM
Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ‘pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.
Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM
Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.
Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM
Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.
Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM
Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.
Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM
The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.
Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year
Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.
Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024
Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.
The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.
Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024
Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.
Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024
Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.
Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024
Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3 inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.
Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024
Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.
Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024
The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.
Longer Term Players
Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.
Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25
Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.
Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.
Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25
It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.
Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.
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There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.
Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.
The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.
Mariners To Outright Diego Castillo, Promote Bryce Miller
The Mariners are shuffling up their pitching staff. They’re set to select the contract of top pitching prospect Bryce Miller, as first reported by Joe Doyle of Future Star Series, and they’ve also passed right-hander Diego Castillo through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A Tacoma, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link).
With that outright, Castillo is no longer on the 40-man roster. He has the three years of service time needed to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but he doesn’t yet have five years of service, so rejecting the assignment would mean forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $2.95MM salary. As such, he’s sure to accept an assignment to Tacoma and remain with the organization.
It’s been a swift decline for Castillo, who was one of the top relievers moved at the 2021 deadline, going from Tampa Bay to Seattle in exchange for minor league infielder Austin Shenton and righty JT Chargois. Castillo was quite effective in his first season and a half with the Mariners, pitching to a 3.42 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly below-average 9.4% walk rate. He held opponents to just a .196 average, yielded only 1.06 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.5% clip.
The 2023 season, however, has been a disaster for the 29-year-old Castillo. In 8 2/3 innings so far, he’s walked as many batters as he’s fanned (seven) and also plunked a hitter. He’s already served up homers to two of the 41 batters he’s faced after surrendering only five in 54 1/3 innings (222 batters faced) a year ago. The 94.2 mph average on his fastball, meanwhile, is down 1.6 mph from last year’s mark of 95.8. Overall, he’s sitting on a 6.23 ERA and has allowed 15 of 41 opponents (.366) to reach base.
Any other team could’ve claimed Castillo, but it’s generally rare for other clubs to claim struggling players of this nature when they have a guaranteed contract of some note. The Mariners could’ve waited to make this move but likely saw Castillo’s struggles as a way to open a 40-man roster spot to accommodate their top pitching prospect. If another club had claimed Castillo, the Mariners would’ve been spared the remaining $2.44MM of this year’s salary, but they’ll instead hope he can round back into form with the Rainiers.
Turning to Miller, he’ll make his big league debut when he takes the mound tomorrow against the A’s. He last pitched on April 25, so he’ll be plenty rested. The 24-year-old has had a rough start to his 2023 season in Double-A, pitching to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 frames, but he entered the year among the top 100 prospects at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com. He currently ranks 92nd, 89th and 85th, respectively on those three lists.
The handful of shaky outings to begin the year, it seems, won’t dissuade the Mariners from hoping he can follow Logan Gilbert and George Kirby to be the next member of the team’s vaunted farm system to step into the Major League rotation. Seattle has already lost Robbie Ray for the season and has seen Chris Flexen struggle in the fifth spot of the rotation, so it stands to reason that Miller could potentially seize a permanent job, if not tomorrow then certainly at some point this season.
Despite his rocky start to the 2023 season, Miller is seen as a potential mid-rotation starter, thanks in no small part to a heater that sits upper-90s and can bump 100 mph. He pairs that with a slider and changeup, and the former college reliever has improved his command as the Mariners have stretched him back out as a starter.
Miller split the bulk of the 2022 season between High-A and Double-A, logging a combined 3.16 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate in 133 2/3 innings. He allowed just 0.67 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a slightly above-average rate. And, given that sizable workload in ’22, there’s little reason to think the Mariners will feel the need to monitor his innings total too aggressively this season.
If Miller were to stick in the big leagues, he’d be on pace to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player following the 2025 season and reach free agency at the conclusion of the 2029 season. Of course, future optional assignments could alter one or both of those timetables considerably.
D-Backs’ Kristian Robinson Receives Work Visa, Could Soon Play In Minor League Games
Diamondbacks outfield prospect Kristian Robinson was granted a work visa over the weekend, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The development sets the stage for him to play in minor league games for the first time in nearly four years, though Piecoro writes that he’ll first need to recover from a minor hamstring injury.
Robinson, a native of the Bahamas, was a high-profile amateur signee over the 2017-18 international signing period. He appeared among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects entering both the 2020 and ’21 seasons after impressing scouts with his power and athleticism in the low minors. At one point, Robinson looked like a potential organizational building block.
However, he’s been in limbo for the past few years for legal reasons. Robinson pled guilty to what was initially a felony assault charge stemming from an April 2020 incident with a law enforcement officer. (Zach Buchanan of the Athletic wrote in 2021 that Robinson said he’d been amidst a mental health crisis at the time.) As part of the plea agreement, Robinson’s charge was to be reduced to a misdemeanor if he successfully completed 18 months of probation without incident. In the interim, having a felony on his record prevented him from renewing a work visa that would allow him to continue to participate in minor league games. Robinson had been permitted to partake in extended Spring Training workouts but could not play in official games.
Robinson fulfilled his probation requirements this spring. With the charge reduced to a misdemeanor, he was able to reapply for and receive the work visa that permits him to get back to game action. While the layoff raises questions about Robinson’s ability to readjust to consistently facing professional pitching, he’s still just 22 years old and could reestablish himself as a legitimate prospect. Piecoro writes that he’s likely to be assigned to Low-A Visalia once he’s recovered from the hamstring issue.
“I think the talent is still there,” D-Backs farm director Josh Barfield told Piecoro. “The same explosive tools he had when he was one of our top prospects three of four years ago, that’s all still there. He’s still young. That’s the amazing part; he’s gone through all this and he’s still young. … I wouldn’t be shocked if he got off to a slower start as he gets his legs underneath him, but I think sometime by midyear we should start to see the guy that we saw before that we were so excited about.”
Over the 2021-22 offseason, the Diamondbacks added Robinson to their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They immediately placed him on the restricted list (thus reallocating the spot) because his work situation had been frozen. Now that Robinson is cleared to return to game action, the D-Backs will soon have to decide whether to count him as part of the roster or to make him available to other clubs via waivers. Piecoro writes they’ll have 30 days before they formally have to reinstate him onto the 40-man.
Astros’ Luis Garcia Headed For MRI With Elbow Soreness
Astros righty Luis Garcia departed tonight’s win over the Giants after just eight pitches. The club later announced he was dealing with soreness in his throwing elbow.
After the game, manager Dusty Baker told the team’s beat that Garcia was headed for an MRI (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). The skipper called the removal precautionary, though it’s still cause for some concern until the imaging results come back. Garcia met with the media as well, explaining that while he didn’t hear a pop in the elbow, he experienced enough pain he wouldn’t have been able to continue pitching (video provided by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).
Even if Garcia is able to avoid anything especially serious, any kind of absence comes at an inopportune time for Houston. The Astros just lost José Urquidy to the injured list this afternoon. He’d left yesterday’s outing with shoulder discomfort and seems to be in for a notable stint on the shelf. Baker told reporters tonight that Urquidy’s MRI revealed inflammation and necessitates a complete shutdown from throwing for an unannounced period of time (via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Baker said only that Urquidy would be out “for a while.”
Garcia is arguably even more integral to Houston’s staff. The 26-year-old has allowed an even four earned runs per nine over 27 innings this season. He’s fanned 27% of opposing hitters against an 8.7% walk rate. Garcia started 28 games in each of the previous two seasons, tallying 155+ frames with an upper-3.00s ERA in both.
With Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. out and Garcia’s status now up in the air, Houston is down to Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown as rotation locks. The Astros recalled Brandon Bielak from Triple-A Sugar Land to take Urquidy’s roster spot. He filled in with 75 pitches over four innings in unexpected relief of Garcia today and could step into a rotation role over the longer haul.
J.P. France and Forrest Whitley, neither of whom has pitched in the majors, are on the 40-man roster and at Triple-A Sugar Land. Bryan Garcia is also with the Space Cowboys and started four MLB games for the Tigers last year. He’s off to a rough few weeks in the minors and does not hold a 40-man spot.
Nationals, Tyler Danish Agree To Minor League Deal
The Nationals are signing reliever Tyler Danish to a minor league contract, reports the Talk Nats blog (Twitter link). He’ll be assigned to Triple-A Rochester.
Danish spent the 2022 campaign with the Red Sox. He appeared in 32 games and threw a personal-high 40 1/3 innings. He allowed 5.13 earned runs per nine innings, striking out a below-average 16.1% of opponents while issuing walks at a lofty 12.9% rate. He kept the ball on the ground at a better than average clip but nevertheless surrendered 1.56 home runs per nine.
Boston cut Danish loose at the end of last season. He latched on with the Yankees on a minor league deal over the winter. The former second round pick spent the spring in camp with New York but had a brutal few weeks. Opponents teed off for 19 runs on 18 hits (including five homers) in just six innings. The Yankees released Danish at the end of camp. After a month on the open market, he’ll get a fresh start with Washington.
The Nationals’ bullpen ranks 19th in the majors with a 4.38 ERA. They’re 28th with a 19.9% strikeout percentage but sit ninth with a 45% ground-ball rate. Danish brings a similar grounder-oriented profile to add some experience to the high minors. The 28-year-old has yet to qualify for arbitration and would be an affordable addition to the bullpen if he pitches well enough to earn an MLB spot. He’s out of minor league option years, so the Nats would have to keep him in the majors or designate him for assignment if he secures a big league call at any point.
Matt Strahm Is Taking Advantage Of His Starting Opportunity
Left-hander Matt Strahm missed part of 2020 and most of 2021 due to knee injuries but bounced back with a solid season for the Red Sox in 2022. He made 50 appearances out of their bullpen, tossing 44 2/3 innings with a 3.83 ERA. His 36.8% ground ball rate was below average but he struck out a strong 26.9% of batters faced while posting an 8.8% walk rate that was very close to league average.
He reached free agency at the end of the year and was in a mix of left-handed relievers that also included such names as Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand and Zack Britton. Strahm was the first of that group to sign, with he and the Phillies reaching a deal in early December for two years and a $15MM guarantee. A few weeks later, Rogers signed with the Giants for three years and $33MM, naturally topping Strahm given his longer track record as an effective reliever. He came into this year with 385 relief appearances compared to Strahm’s 182.
The rest of the group would linger on the market for a while as the season approached. Like Rogers, they each generally had longer résumés than Strahm in terms of working as effective relievers. Strahm oscillated between starting and relieving in his first few seasons and then dealt with injuries a bit in 2020 and more so in 2021. That meant he really only had one full season of healthy and effective work as a reliever. But then someone like Chafin, as an example, had essentially a decade-long track record of success in the job. He finished 2022 with a career ERA of 3.23 over 476 appearances dating back to 2014. Hand was fairly similar, having been a solid bullpen option since converting to relief full-time in 2016. Chapman had a rough 2022 but had previously been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport for quite a long time. Same for Britton prior to his recent injury woes. Moore had only recently joined the bullpen but had previously been a top prospect and had some success as a starter in the past.
Chapman went on to sign with the Royals at the end of January for one year and $3.75MM plus incentives. Chafin agreed with the Diamondbacks in mid-February for one year and $6.25MM with incentives and a club option for 2024. Moore agreed with the Angels shortly after that for one year and $7.55MM. Hand stayed unsigned until early March when Spring Training was well underway, agreeing with the Rockies for one year and $2MM plus incentives. Britton remains unsigned to this day.
Although it was a bit surprising to see Strahm top everyone in that group, his 2023 perhaps illustrates why that might have been the case. Though he was producing quality work as a reliever with the Red Sox last year, he consistently spoke about wanting to regain a job as a starter in the future. Strahm had made 25 starts earlier in his career with the Padres but never quite stuck, both due to injuries and some inconsistent performances. The Phillies didn’t seem to be planning on giving him that job initially, but he has it now.
The Phils went into Spring Training with a planned rotation of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez in the front four. The fifth spot was left open to be a competition, with the hope being that top prospect Andrew Painter could seize the job in camp even though he wouldn’t turn 20 years old until early April. If that didn’t come to fruition, the club had fallback options such as Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez.
Unfortunately, Painter would be shut down in early March with a sprain of the UCL in his elbow. His shutdown period is over but he’s still ramping up arm strength and has yet to appear in an official game this year. In addition to that, Suárez dealt with some forearm inflammation in spring and still hasn’t made his season debut, just starting a rehab assignment last week. Sánchez was also shut down in the spring, with triceps soreness being the culprit in his case. That left two openings in the rotation next to Nola, Wheeler and Walker.
One of those openings was filled by Strahm and he has responded admirably so far. He made one relief appearance at the start of the year but has since made five starts. In 23 1/3 combined innings on the year, he has a 2.31 ERA. His 38.8% ground ball is still below average, but he’s striking out an incredible 36% of batters faced while walking just 7.9%. His .213 batting average on balls in play and 81.4% strand rate have surely helped him out a bit, but he still has a really strong 2.78 FIP and 2.94 SIERA that point to quality results even with some regression in terms of luck. Starters generally need to have a more diverse pitch arsenal than relievers and Strahm is showing that here this year. All four of the pitches he’s throwing have negative run values this season, with Statcast giving him a -1 on his cutter and sinker, a -3 on his four-seam and a -4 on his slider.
This is all a very small sample and we can’t draw too many long-term conclusions from it, but this illustrates why Strahm’s market wasn’t exactly the same as the other lefties mentioned earlier. Though the Phils went into the spring with the intention of having Strahm work out of the bullpen, they must have at least had some idea that moving back to the rotation was something they could try if the need arose. Those other free agent southpaws have all been exclusively relievers for years, except for Moore, who hadn’t really been effective out of the rotation since 2016.
Whether Strahm can keep this up remains to be seen. But if he can, it could potentially have interesting ramifications for the Phillies. Now that Suárez is on the road back to health, he should be looking to retake a rotation spot in the next few weeks. Falter still has an option year remaining and a 5.01 ERA through six starts this year. Perhaps he winds up back in the minors and Strahm keeps his spot even after Suárez is healthy. Sánchez recently came off the IL but was optioned to the minors.
There’s also the future to consider, as Strahm has a second year on his contract. The Phillies are currently slated to see Nola reach free agency this winter, as extension talks haven’t led to a deal. That leaves their on-paper rotation for 2024 as Wheeler, Walker and Suarez. Painter could theoretically take a spot if he can return to health and get back on track, but he’s still a wild card given his youth and lack of experience. Falter could be in the mix as well but Strahm could give the club an extra layer of rotation security if he continues proving himself this year.
There could also be significant fallout for Strahm personally, as he’s slated to return to the open market after 2024. His market will be somewhat limited as he’s already 31 years old and will be marketing his age-33 season at that time, but effective starters can still get paid at that age or older. There’s obviously aces like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander who are getting paid extremely well into their late 30s and early 40s, but solid mid-rotation guy Chris Bassitt just got three years and $63MM going into his age-34 season.
Cristian Pache Undergoes Knee Surgery, Expected To Miss 4-6 Weeks
The Phillies announced that Cristian Pache underwent a successful lateral meniscectomy on his right knee today. According to the team, he’s expected to miss four to six weeks.
Pache suffered the meniscus tear during Saturday’s win over the Astros. It interrupted a solid start to the year for the 24-year-old outfielder. He’d collected nine hits (including a homer and three doubles) over 26 trips to the plate in 18 games. Pache didn’t walk and struck out six times but he’d hit for some power and logged 42 innings of center field work in a depth capacity.
Philadelphia acquired Pache from the A’s on the eve of Opening Day. A key part of Oakland’s trade return from Atlanta for Matt Olson, he only lasted one season in green and gold thanks to a .166/.218/.241 batting line in 91 MLB games. Pache had also struggled in Triple-A last year while exhausting his final minor league option season. In spite of a decent showing this spring, he didn’t break camp with Oakland and was dealt to Philadelphia for minor league pitcher Billy Sullivan rather than being placed on waivers.
The Phils have to keep Pache on the MLB roster or injured list if they don’t want to risk losing him themselves. He’d played well enough in a depth capacity for the season’s first month the team didn’t have to consider that decision. They’ll unfortunately now be without him for the next month-plus after the injury. Philadelphia recalled Dalton Guthrie to take Pache’s spot as a depth outfielder, although they could shuffle the mix tomorrow.
Bryce Harper returns from the injured list as a designated hitter, pushing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly. They’ll flank Brandon Marsh, leaving Jake Cave and Guthrie without much of a path to playing time.
Nationals Notes: Kuhl, Kieboom, Dickerson
Prior to this evening’s game against the Cubs, the Nationals placed starter Chad Kuhl on the 15-day injured list. The placement is retroactive to April 30, ruling him out for the next two weeks. Cory Abbott was recalled from Triple-A Rochester to take the open active roster spot.
Kuhl told reporters he sprained the big toe on his right foot during Saturday’s appearance against Pittsburgh (relayed by Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). He stayed in the game and logged 3 2/3 innings but was tagged for eight runs. It was another rough appearance for the 30-year-old, who has allowed four-plus runs in four of five outings this year. He hasn’t gotten past five innings in any of his appearances.
All told, Kuhl lands on the shelf with a 9.41 ERA through his first 22 frames in a Washington uniform. He’s striking out a below-average 16.8% of opponents while walking a lofty 15% of batters faced and surrendering more than two home runs per nine innings. The offseason minor league signee will obviously have to perform better once he returns from the IL if he’s to hang onto his roster spot for the entire season.
The rebuilding Nationals enter play Monday with a 4.75 rotation ERA that ranks 18th in the majors. Young pitchers Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore are both faring well from a run prevention perspective, though Gore has walked an alarming 14.4% of opponents. Trevor Williams has provided a 4.10 ERA over 26 1/3 frames, while veterans Kuhl and Patrick Corbin have been hit hard.
Abbott seems likely to step into Kuhl’s rotation spot. The righty started nine of 16 big league outings last year and has opened all five of his appearances in Rochester this season. He carries a 6.46 ERA in spite of a strong 28.8% strikeout rate over 23 2/3 Triple-A innings.
The Nationals also provided reporters with injury updates on the position player side. Infielder Carter Kieboom is soon to report to Double-A Harrisburg for a rehab stint, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. That sets the stage for a forthcoming return to major league action, which’ll be Kieboom’s first MLB game time since 2021. The right-handed hitter missed all of last season with a forearm issue that eventually required Tommy John surgery; he’s been out for the first month of this year on account of a shoulder impingement. A former top prospect, Kieboom carries a career .197/.304/.285 batting line and is looking to establish himself as a potential long-term piece.
Outfielder Corey Dickerson landed on the IL with a strained left calf two games into the season. He’s further behind in his recovery. According to the MLB.com injury tracker, Dickerson has been throwing and swinging a bat but is not yet cleared to run. He signed a $2.25MM free agent deal over the winter to add a veteran left-handed bat to the corner outfield rotation.
Astros Place Jose Urquidy On Injured List
The Astros have placed starter José Urquidy on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort, per a club announcement. Righty Brandon Bielak was recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to take the vacated active roster spot.
Urquidy departed last night’s start against Philadelphia with the injury. The club announced postgame he was headed for an MRI. Chandler Rome of the Athletic tweets the team has yet to provide any specifics on the imaging, as Urquidy is slated to meet with medical personnel to analyze the results this evening. Regardless, Houston determined they weren’t going to run Urquidy back out there within the next two weeks.
The 28-year-old righty has started six games this year. He owns a 5.20 ERA through 27 2/3 innings. He’s striking hitters out at a below-average 18.7% clip while walking a career-high 8.1% of opponents. While it has been a bland first month, Urquidy has been a reliable mid-rotation control specialist for the bulk of his big league career. He’d allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine in spite of middling strikeout tallies for the past few years, including a 3.94 ERA across a personal-best 164 1/3 innings last season.
Houston is also without Lance McCullers Jr. due to injury. The Astros are down to a four-man starting staff of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and touted rookie Hunter Brown (who has had an excellent first month in a big league rotation). Bielak has starting experience but manager Dusty Baker said the club will use him out of the bullpen initially (relayed by Mark Berman of Fox 26). Houston has an off day Thursday, allowing them to potentially skip the fifth starter this week while keeping everyone else on regular rest.