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Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

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The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

—

As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

Friedman: Dodgers Won’t Trade From Roster To Avoid Luxury Tax

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The Dodgers have had a quieter offseason than in recent years, limiting their acquisitions primarily to veterans on short-term deals so far. Many had speculated that the club was planning to dip under the competitive balance tax threshold in order to avoid paying the tax for a third year in a row and enter 2024 as a “first-time” payor. If they had any designs on that kind of approach, they largely went out the window when Trevor Bauer’s suspension was reduced, putting $22.5MM back onto their ledger.

That led some people to wonder if the club would then pivot to trading some salaried player to reduce their tax number, but Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has denied that will be a consideration. “No,” Friedman responded to the suggestion, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. “We’re doing all we can to win a championship this year.”

Roster Resource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $238MM, just $5MM over the $233MM threshold. Trading some salary to dip back under could be theoretically possible, though it would come with challenges. Blake Treinen is a name that has been speculatively floated by some as a candidate for such a trade, given his $8MM salary this year. However, he underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated 10-month recovery time. The Dodgers would have to include some kind of prospect to convince any team to take on that kind of money for a guy likely to miss the whole season. Others have floated Chris Taylor as a candidate for a salary-dumping deal, since he’s still owed $45MM over the next three years. But moving him now would be selling low after he had a subpar .221/.304/.373 showing last year. It would also subtract from an outfield that already appears to be somewhat thin. Even if the club did pull off some kind of move to limbo under the line, they would then be handcuffed by what moves they could make during the season, as making a notable deadline deal could get them right back over again.

Though they apparently aren’t going to avoid the tax this year, they have still kept their moves modest this winter. They’ve signed some veterans to one-year deals in Clayton Kershaw, J.D. Martinez, Noah Syndergaard and Shelby Miller, as well as acquiring Miguel Rojas from the Marlins, who has just one year remaining on his deal. Regardless of the financials involved, it seems the club is hoping for their prospect pipeline to feed their big league roster in a significant way this winter, with names like Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney having departed via free agency.

James Outman has just four big league games under his belt but could potentially get a significant run in the outfield this year. Miguel Vargas has played 18 major league games but could be the club’s everyday second baseman if he’s playing well and Gavin Lux is successful in moving over to shortstop. Infield/outfield prospect Michael Busch has yet to make his debut but reached Triple-A last year and could push himself into the picture. Outfield prospect Andy Pages hasn’t made it to the big leagues yet either but spent all of last year at Double-A and should be on the cusp this season.

The club’s rotation seems in solid shape with Kershaw and Syndergaard joined by Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. Of course, pitcher injuries are inevitable and a path will eventually open up for prospects here as well. Ryan Pepiot has already made his major league debut, getting into nine games last year. He’s a bit ahead of Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone, who aren’t on the 40-man yet, though they each reached Triple-A last year and could have roster spots before long.

That tempered offseason means the club is just barely over the CBT line, but they will still be facing a steep tax rate. Since they also paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they will be considered a third-time payor this year if they stay over. That means they will be paying a 50% tax on all spending over that threshold and that rate jumps to 62% if they eventually get above the $253MM line. Currently, that only amounts to paying about $2.5MM in taxes, but the final tally will depend on how the rest of the year plays out.

Though resetting their tax status doesn’t seem to be in the cards this year, it’s possible that the opportunity will arise again after the upcoming season. Since their additions have been limited to veterans who will reach free agency in November, there’s a decent amount of money coming off the books later this year. Kershaw, Martinez, Syndergaard, Miller, Rojas and Urías are all slated to hit the open market. The club has an option for Treinen for 2024 with the value falling somewhere between $1MM and $7MM based on his health and other factors. Since he’s going to miss most or all of the upcoming season, it will likely be on the cheap end of that spectrum. Then there’s Bauer’s deal, which will be off the books as well since 2022 is the last year of his contract. Max Muncy and Daniel Hudson have club options for 2024, though at reasonable salary numbers that seem likely to be triggered if they’re healthy.

That will give the club plenty of payroll flexibility next year but will also create roster holes. How much work the club has to do next winter will depend on how many of those gaps can be filled internally. The departures of Kershaw and Urias will be a blow to the rotation, but Walker Buehler will return from his August 2022 Tommy John surgery at some point and perhaps one of the prospects grabs hold of a job. Martinez and Rojas will be subtracted from the position player side of things, but maybe one of the youngsters emerges there as well. It will make 2023 an interesting season to watch, both for the season itself and its future implications, which will be followed by an offseason where the top available free agent could be Shohei Ohtani.

Twins Appear Unlikely To Trade Max Kepler

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Max Kepler has been one of the game’s more frequently mentioned trade candidates over the past month or so. The signing of Joey Gallo added another left-handed bat to a Twins outfield that was already very deep in that regard. Kepler, as the oldest and most expensive of Minnesota’s in-house lefty outfielders, seemed the likeliest player to move if the front office wanted to deal from that surplus to address anywhere else on the roster.

While the German-born outfielder drew reported interest from the Marlins and Yankees this offseason, the Twins obviously haven’t found a deal they consider satisfactory. Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote this morning Minnesota hasn’t found the level of interest in Kepler they’re seeking and now seem likely to keep him into the season. Assuming that’s the case for the entirety of Minnesota’s outfielders, they’ll carry a group of Kepler, Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner as left-handed options, with center fielders Byron Buxton, Michael A. Taylor and Gilberto Celestino all hitting from the right side.

Manager Rocco Baldelli would be able to get some of those players into the mix at non-outfield positions, of course. The Twins don’t have a set designated hitter, leaving room to rotate a number of options as quasi-rest days. Gordon can play the infield (mostly at second base), while Gallo and Kirilloff each have plenty of first base experience.

Kirilloff is returning from a second straight season-ending wrist surgery. Buxton has a lengthy injury history and has only once reached 100 MLB games in a season, no doubt playing into Minnesota’s recent acquisition of Taylor. Celestino, Wallner, Kirilloff and Larnach each have options remaining and can be sent to the minors — which seems a stronger possibility for the first two than for either of Kirilloff or Larnach.

There’s enough flexibility that Minnesota doesn’t have to deal an outfielder simply to free up playing time. As Hayes points out, however, not making a trade could be seen as missing out on an opportunity to balance the roster in other areas. As things stand, the Twins seem likely to deploy Gallo, Buxton and Kepler as their primary outfield, with Kirilloff at first base and Gordon and/or Larnach manning DH.

Hayes writes that Gallo has expressed a willingness to move back to first base if the club desires, though a key portion of the 29-year-old’s overall value is derived from his Gold Glove-caliber corner outfield work. He hasn’t started an MLB game at first base since 2018, with teams preferring to take advantage of his athleticism and arm strength on the outfield grass.

If everyone’s healthy, Minnesota should have an elite defensive outfield. Buxton and Taylor are two of the sport’s best defenders. Kepler and Gallo are high-end corner outfielders who can cover center if needed. Kepler’s glovework had been one of the key selling points in his trade candidacy, as a lackluster center field market has left a few other clubs rolling the dice on inexperienced options at the position. The Red Sox signed Adam Duvall, who’s 34 and has started 68 career games in center, to man the position. Miami is moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center after acquiring Luis Arraez to play second base.

To the extent other teams are interested in Kepler as a possible center field fit, it doesn’t appear they’re willing to meet the Twins’ asking price. Minnesota will plug him back into right field and hope he can more closely approximate his .252/.336/.519 showing from 2019 than the roughly average .220/.314/.392 mark he’s managed over the past three seasons.

Kepler has strong plate discipline and contact skills but consistently runs one of the league’s worst averages on balls in play. A lack of line drives suggests that’s not entirely poor fortune, though he has also seen plenty of overshifts that’ll no longer be permissible given the forthcoming rule changes. Kepler is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. He’s due at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Another player who could factor into the outfield mix at some point is Royce Lewis. He won’t be available at the start of the season after tearing the ACL in his right knee last June. It was the second straight year he’d torn the ligament. The former first overall pick is expected to be ready at some point midseason. The re-signing of Carlos Correa means Lewis isn’t likely to get much shortstop run, barring a Correa injury.

Lewis recently informed reporters he started swinging again three weeks ago and has progressed to straight-line running (link via Megan Ryan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). While there’s no present path to everyday reps at one position for the 23-year-old, he noted president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine each stressed his value to the organization after they retained Correa. Lewis spoke about his excitement for the star shortstop’s return and expressed a willingness to play anywhere on the infield or outfield depending on the team’s needs once he’s healthy.

Orioles Outright Darwinzon Hernandez

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The Orioles announced on Thursday that reliever Darwinzon Hernandez has cleared waivers. He’s been sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk and will stick in the organization without occupying a 40-man roster spot. The O’s have extended him a non-roster invitation to big league Spring Training.

Hernandez, 26, changed organizations for the first time last month after being designated for assignment by the Red Sox. The southpaw had spent his entire career with Boston since signing out of Venezuela a decade ago. The O’s swung a minor trade with their division rivals, bringing in Hernandez for cash considerations. His stay on their 40-man lasted just a couple weeks, as Baltimore DFA him a week ago upon acquiring Cole Irvin from Oakland.

The pair of transactions allow the O’s to stash a hard-throwing lefty reliever as a non-roster player in the upper minors. Hernandez has pitched in each of the last four MLB seasons, flashing tantalizing stuff but too often struggling to throw strikes. He posted a 3.38 ERA through 40 innings as recently as 2021 but was lit up for 17 runs in just 6 2/3 frames last season.

Overall, Hernandez now carries a 5.06 ERA across 85 1/3 MLB innings. He has an excellent 32.3% strikeout rate and has gotten swinging strikes on a quality 12.5% of his overall offerings. His combination of a mid-90s fastball and a mid-80s breaking pitch that garnered plus or better grades from prospect evaluators is clearly capable of missing bats at the highest level. Yet no other pitcher with 50+ innings over the past four seasons has walked batters more often than Hernandez, who has dished out free passes at a 17.7% clip.

Assuming he doesn’t reestablish himself on the MLB roster during Spring Training, Hernandez will head to Norfolk to start the year. He owns 5.29 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout percentage but an 18.8% walk rate in parts of three seasons at the top minor league level. He still has one option year remaining, so the O’s could bounce him between Baltimore and Norfolk if he reclaims a 40-man spot at any point. Hernandez would reach minor league free agency at the end of the season if he’s not a part of the 40-man roster.

The Orioles have Keegan Akin and Cionel Pérez as their top left-handed relievers. Nick Vespi is also on the 40-man roster, although his specific timeline is unclear after recent sports hernia surgery. Hard-throwing pitching prospect DL Hall might be best suited for a bullpen role given his own strike-throwing concerns, while Drew Rom and Bruce Zimmermann are candidates for depth roles in either the rotation or long relief.

Cubs Sign Mark Leiter Jr. To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have signed right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. to a minor league deal, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Leiter will be in major league camp competing for a spot on the roster.

Leiter, 32 in March, is coming off a strong campaign where he served as an optional depth arm for the Cubs. He made four starts and 31 relief appearances, tallying 67 2/3 innings with a 3.99 ERA. He struck out 25.9% of batters faced while walking 8.9% and getting grounders at a 48.9% clip. He also made six Triple-A starts, posting a 5.32 ERA despite a 34% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. His batting average on balls in play was .333 in the minors versus .251 in the majors and his strand rate was also higher in the show.

That was a generally solid showing but Leiter got nudged off the roster in January when the club added Eric Hosmer. Leiter went unclaimed on waivers and was eligible to elect free agency by virtue of having had a previous career outright. After just over a week on the open market, Leiter is now a Cub again, though without a spot on the roster.

He’ll head to spring and try to earn his way back onto the 40-man, though he’ll have less roster flexibility if he succeeds. He’s now out of options, preventing the club from freely shuffling him to the farm and back, which they did four times last year.

The Cubs’ bullpen chart will likely be topped by Brandon Hughes and Brad Boxberger, followed by names like Adbert Alzolay, Rowan Wick, Julian Merryweather and Michael Rucker. Leiter will be competing with other non-roster invitees like Vinny Nittoli, Tyler Duffey and Eric Stout for a job in that mix. If he succeeds in getting back on the team, he can be cheaply retained for further seasons as he has just over two years of service time and has yet to qualify for arbitration.

Pirates Sign Chris Owings To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates announced a series of non-roster invitations to spring training today, revealing within that they’ve signed veteran utilityman Chris Owings to a minor league pact. The ACES client will be in camp and vie for a bench job.

Owings is still just 31 but has appeared in each of the past 10 big league seasons, suiting up for the D-backs, Royals, Red Sox. Rockies and Orioles along the way. He spent the 2022 season with the Yankees and Orioles organizations, getting into 27 big league games with Baltimore but posting just a .104/.254/.143 batting line in 68 trips to the plate. That’s the opposite end of the small-sample spectrum from a similarly brief 2021 run with the Rockies, for whom he slashed a ludicrous .326/.420/.628 in 21 games/50 trips to the plate.

Overall, Owings is a career .239/.287/.366 hitter with 37 big flies and 79 steals through 712 big league games (2464 plate appearances). He’s played every position on the field, including 2 2/3 innings on the mound, although the bulk of his time in the big leagues has been spent at shortstop. Defensive metrics have never loved him at that spot, but Owings has average or better ratings at second base, at third base and in the outfield.

The left side of the Pirates’ infield is set with youngsters Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz at third base and shortstop, respectively. Rodolfo Castro, Ji Hwan Bae and prospect Nick Gonzalez (who’ll be in camp as a non-roster player) are in the mix for the second base slot. One of Castro or Bae could land a utility job on the bench, too, though it’s likely Gonzalez head to Triple-A for everyday reps, barring an upset win of the everyday job at second. The versatile Owings will join that competition for a utility spot off the bench. Owings is a lifetime .308/.347/.480 hitter in Triple-A, so he’ll likely give the Bucs some production in the upper minors if he can’t break the roster this spring.

Read The Transcript Of Today’s Chat With Former MLB Pitcher Scott Feldman

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Scott Feldman was drafted in 2002 in the 41st round by the Astros out of a junior college: College of San Mateo in California.  He was a draft-and-follow and didn’t end up signing with the Astros.  Because of the Astros’ claim on Feldman’s rights, he wasn’t scouted heavily after they drafted him.  So in 2003, Feldman wound up being drafted by the Rangers in the 30th round “as a favor to my agent,” as he later put it.  Shortly thereafter, his elbow started hurting, and he ended up needing Tommy John surgery.

That progression did not put Feldman on the radar of prospect gurus, and he worked out of the bullpen in the minor leagues.  He cracked the Majors in late 2005 with a brief look out of the Rangers’ bullpen.  Feldman spent the ’06 and ’07 seasons bouncing between Triple-A and long relief work in the bigs.

The Rangers decided to try Feldman as a starter in 2008, and he kept getting looks in the rotation as needs arose.  Feldman made 25 starts that year, but still didn’t have a rotation spot locked up.  By late April of ’09, however, he took over for an injured incumbent and didn’t look back.  Feldman put up a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts that year, his 17 wins ranking fifth in MLB.  Feldman’s breakout 2009 season, which included an 11-strikeout effort and six different scoreless outings, led to the Rangers’ Opening Day nod in 2010.  He also landed a three-year contract with a club option for a fourth.

Feldman dealt with knee surgery and the recovery process in 2010 and ’11, and he moved in and out of the Rangers’ rotation.  The Rangers declined their club option for 2013, and Feldman reached free agency for the first time.  He found a rotation spot on a one-year deal with the rebuilding Cubs.

After a fine start to the 2013 season, the Cubs famously traded Feldman to the Orioles in the deal that brought back Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop.  Returning to free agency after that season, Feldman inked a three-year, $30MM deal to join another rebuilding club, the Astros.  He garnered the club’s Opening Day start in 2014.

Feldman did solid work for the Astros outside of some injuries.  In the final year of his contract, he was dealt to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline.  He landed a one-year deal with the Reds for 2017 and snagged their Opening Day start — his third such honor with a third different club.  Feldman underwent season-ending knee surgery in August of that year.

Scott tried to rehab his knee to play in 2018 or ’19, but as he puts it, “it wasn’t meant to be.”  He notes, “In April of 2019 I decided I was done. I’ve reflected a lot on how lucky I was to get to play professional baseball from 2003-2017. All the great people I got to be around on a daily basis for 15 years. Teammates, coaches, clubhouse guys, front office, ownership.”

Feldman wound up having a very nice MLB career, especially for a guy who didn’t have those aspirations in high school.  He won 78 games and made 204 starts, tallying nearly 1,400 innings.  He got to pitch in the 2011 postseason for the Rangers, including five outings in the World Series against the Cardinals.  Feldman provided a lot of value to teams by gobbling up innings, and he always displayed excellent control.  Born in Kailua, Hawaii, Feldman was one of the game’s best pitchers to come out of that state.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in a free-agent profile of Feldman back in 2013, his father was an FBI agent and army veteran.  Feldman discussed his close relationship with his father in a 2014 interview with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, shortly after his father passed away after a lengthy battle with brain cancer.  As McTaggart noted, Feldman pitched just two days later and fired seven shutout innings.

For those wondering what Scott is up to now, he writes, “I’ve been staying busy with a couple real estate projects here and there, spending time with family, traveling, golfing, a little bit of coaching at my alma mater, taking some classes, hiring the right people to work with, re-establishing community in Northern California after being away for such a long time, trying to give back, and planning for what might be next.”  Scott is involved with Stop Soldier Suicide, as well as a mental health and wellness company called Most Days.

We were thrilled to have Scott join us to chat with MLBTR readers about a variety of topics including his experience pitching in the World Series, navigating free agency three different times, being traded midseason and more. Click here to read the transcript!

Luis Arraez Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Newly acquired infielder Luis Arraez has won an arbitration hearing against the Marlins, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The MVP Sports Group client will be paid $6.1MM rather than the $5MM figure originally submitted by his now-former team, the Twins.

Miami acquired Arraez, 25, in the trade that sent right-hander Pablo Lopez, top prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio to Minnesota last month. His win in arb hearing comes on the heels of a .316/.375/.420 batting line that netted him an American League batting title in 2022. Arraez notched career-highs in games played (144), plate appearances (603), doubles (31) and homers (8) this past season.

All of that surely factored into his win over his new team, and he’ll now receive a 187% raise over last year’s $2.125MM salary. This was the infielder’s second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible two more times before reaching free agency after the 2025 season.

The Marlins acquired Arraez in something of a high-risk gambit, hoping that his improved offense will offset the inherent defensive downgrade of swapping him in at second base and moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field. That’s not to suggest Chisholm can’t be a solid center field — he certainly has the tools and athleticism to handle the position — but he’s been a plus defender at second base in his career while Arraez has been below-average. And, Chisholm will now have to learn a new position on the fly. It’s a move that carries risk, but there’s no denying that Miami’s lineup looks deeper with Arraez hitting at or near the top than it did previously.

With Arraez’s salary now set, the Marlins project for a payroll in the roughly $103MM range, per Roster Resource. That still has a bit of room to change even without further additions, as the Fish still have two pending arbitration cases. Utilityman Jon Berti and left-hander Jesus Luzardo both exchanged figures with the club. Berti filed a $2.3MM figure to the team’s $1.9MM submission, while Luzardo came in at $2.45MM to the Marlins’ $2.1MM. Those are trivial sums to any team in the grand scheme of things, but as we’ve explored at MLBTR in the past, the battle over those sums is more about managing salaries years down the road — even for future classes of players, as arbitration is a precedent-based system — rather than present-day savings.

Mariners Notes: Left Field, Brash, Rotation

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The Mariners’ plans in left field have looked fairly straightforward since the team signed AJ Pollock to a one-year deal last month, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto nonetheless confirmed to reporters last night that the expectation is for left field to a platoon between Pollock and one of Jarred Kelenic or Taylor Trammell (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Both Kelenic, 23, and Trammell, 25, are recent top-100 prospects who at one point were candidates to hold down long-term spots in the Seattle outfield. Kelenic, in particular, was touted as a potential star but has struggled in the big leagues to this point despite a .302/.372/.574 output in 537 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. His struggles against fellow lefties have been particularly pronounced, but Kelenic did turn in a .249/.330/.503 slash against right-handed pitching in 2022 (Triple-A and MLB combined). Trammell, meanwhile, hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB. There’s some understandable hope, then, that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.

Trammell was heralded as the superior defender of the pair during his prospect days, though neither he nor Kelenic has posted standout defensive grades thus far in the big leagues. Kelenic has more experience in the corners and has drawn above-average marks for his work there. He’s also been more apt to barrel the ball and has been less strikeout-prone, though his 29.9% mark in the big leagues is obviously problematic.

Both Kelenic and Trammell were featured in a piece by Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser, wherein he polled scouts for opinions on some recent top prospects who’ve graduated to the Majors but struggled to establish themselves. Kelenic drew more praise between the two, particularly for substantial defensive improvements, but scouts who spoke to Glaser offered fairly bearish views of both players’ swings at this point. However, Mariners GM Justin Hollander said yesterday that hitting coach Jarret DeHart has been working with Kelenic and gone through a motion-capture breakdown of his swing this offseason, and the results have been “over-the-top awesome” (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic).

Both Kelenic and Trammell are still young, and it’s fairly common to see a swing change or mechanical adjustment bring about major turnarounds in a player’s outlook. The Mariners clearly aren’t giving up on either player yet, though with both entering their final minor league option year, this is a crucial season for Kelenic and Trammell. Should they falter, the M’s have another lefty-swinging outfield bat who’s nearly ready for a Major League look; 25-year-old Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster and turned in a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between 120 Double-A games and 13 Triple-A games in 2022.

Kelenic and Trammell aren’t the only once-vaunted Mariners prospects who’ve turned in shaky big league results to this point. Righty Matt Brash won the fifth starter’s job out of spring training in 2022 but was tagged for 17 runs while posting a 19-to-17 K/BB ratio through his first 20 innings (five starts). That prompted the team to option Brash back to Triple-A Tacoma, and when he returned in July, he was used exclusively as a reliever.

That’ll be Brash’s role in 2023 as well, Dipoto confirmed (Twitter link via Divish). It’s easy to see why the Mariners are intrigued by the switch. Brash has been a starter for most of his career, but he returned to the Majors and obliterated opposing lineups while working in short relief last summer; from July 9 through season’s end, the 24-year-old pitched to a 2.35 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate. His 12.6% walk rate still needs refinement, but Brash’s heater jumped from an average of 96.3 mph in the rotation to 97.8 mph out of the ’pen and his 14% swinging-strike rate was excellent.

It’s always possible that there will be rotation innings for Brash down the road, but the Mariners look to have several spots locked up long-term. Ace Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108MM extension after being acquired in a trade last summer, and left-hander Robbie Ray inked a five-year, $115MM in free agency last offseason. Young arms Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, meanwhile, are controllable for another five and six seasons, respectively.

Both Gilbert and Kirby have made good on their status as former first-rounders and top prospects, quickly cementing themselves as high-quality big league hurlers. And, as Dipoto tells it, the duo won’t be facing any hard innings limitations in 2023 (via Brock). Gilbert threw 185 2/3 innings over the life of 32 regular-season starts in 2022, while Kirby notched a combined 156 2/3 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues. Both pitchers turned in an ERA in the low-3.00s with sharp strikeout and walk rates (Kirby, in particular). The pair might be eased into spring work, but the goal seems to be for each to make a five-inning start in the late stages of camp, setting the stage for them to work without limits once the season begins.

The group of Castillo, Ray, Gilbert and Kirby is among the best rotation quartets in baseball, but the fifth spot in the rotation remains a source of at least some uncertainty. Seattle has a pair of candidates in Marco Gonzales, a mainstay over the past five years, and KBO returnee Chris Flexen, who’s posted a 3.66 ERA in two seasons since signing in Seattle. Both pitchers have been floated as possible trade candidates throughout the winter. Gonzales is owed a combined $18.5MM from 2023-24, while Flexen will earn $8MM in 2023 before becoming a free agent in the offseason.

There’s been little indication of serious trade talks involving either in recent weeks, but it’s certainly possible that another club will show increased interest once early-spring injuries inevitably begin to arise. Then again, having both on hand gives the Mariners themselves an important safety net in the event of an in-house injury, so there’s little pressure to force a deal if the return isn’t meaningful.

Was Brad Hand Good Or Lucky Last Year?

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There seems to be a holdup in the market for left-handed relievers. Though pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Matt Strahm have signed deals, others like Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton are still out there. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently wrote about the situation, listing 10 clubs that were interested in that trio of available lefties. But that means at least seven clubs will miss out on that group and will need to consider other options, with one of those being Brad Hand.

Hand, 33 in March, had a dominant run in the second half of the last decade but seems to have aged into a different kind of pitcher in the past few years. From 2016 to 2020, he made 306 appearances with a 2.70 ERA, striking out 33.3% of batters faced while walking 8.1% and getting ground balls at a solid 41.2% clip. That strikeout rate was third among relievers with at least 250 innings in that time, trailing only Edwin Diaz and Kenley Jansen.

Those punchouts got away from him in 2021, as his rate dropped all the way down to 21.9%. He kept his ERA at a respectable 3.90 for the season, though was clearly not at the same level as years prior. He signed with the Phillies for 2022 and saw his rate stats continue in the wrong direction, though with better results overall. He tossed 45 innings last year, striking out just 19.2% of opponents and walking 11.6% of them. However, he was able to find ways to limit the overall damage and finished the year with a 2.80 ERA.

Whether that limiting of damage was skill or luck is a matter of debate. Hand’s batting average on balls in play last year was 2.71, slightly better than his .284 career mark and the .289 league average last year. It’s a similar situation with his strand rate, which was 75.9% last year, just ahead of the 72.6% league average and his 73.6% career rate. That perhaps points to a bit of good fortune, and advanced metrics were unanimous in thinking Hand deserved worse, such as a 3.93 FIP, 4.40 xERA and 4.51 SIERA. He also only allowed two home runs on the year, a difficult feat to repeat.

But it does seem as though Hand is doing something to keep hitters off balance. Among the 444 pitchers with 100 or more batted ball events last year, Hand’s average exit velocity of 87.2 mph came in 93rd. His rate of barrel per BBE was 88th, barrels per plate appearance 77th, while his 26.9% hard hit rate was fourth. In that latter category, he trailed only Lucas Luetge, Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Thielbar, and was just ahead of Devin Williams, Jason Adam, Ryan Tepera and Tyler Anderson.

This all might hinge on his slider, which is his primary pitch. He’s thrown it more than any other pitch in each season since 2017, per Statcast data. He used to get huge swing-and-miss numbers off it, with a whiff rate over 40% in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. However, that dipped to 38.6% in 2020 and then 27.9% and 22% over the past two seasons. That lack of whiffs hasn’t translated into more significant contact, however. The pitch had a hard hit rate of 29.5% in 2019 but he lowered that to 16.9% in 2022. Opponents hit just .222 against the pitch last year and slugged .321, with Hand using the slider 52.1% of the time.

It’s perhaps a function of the diminished power he has on the pitch, which he threw in the 81-85 mph range from 2016 to 2019 but has been more 79-80 in the past three years. It also has a bit less spin, as he got his RPM up to 2629 in 2017 but has dropped in subsequent years, with 2022’s spin rate coming in at 2282 RPM. That’s resulted in missing fewer bats but hitters aren’t doing much damage when they do make contact.

With less whiffs, Hand’s contact rate has naturally gone up in kind. While batters made contract on 71% of his pitches from 2016-2020, it’s been 81.7% in the past two years. But it seems as though that extra contact is coming outside the strike zone. His Z-contact rate was 82.4% during those prime years and ticked up to 87% over the past two. But his O-contact rate, for pitches outside the zone, jumped to 71% in the past two seasons after being at 53.6% in his peak years. Hitters are swinging at those pitches outside the zone a bit less, which correlates with Hand’s increased walk rate last year, but it’s possible hitters are just turning some of Hand’s whiffs into weak contact.

What teams will have to decide is whether Hand has been making this happen or merely getting away with something. He’s been working with diminished stuff in recent years but has found ways to avoid disaster, with that 3.90 ERA in 2021 and 2.80 last year. Pitching to contact is a risky proposition but Hand has found ways to make it work. The upcoming ban on defensive shifts could theoretically make it even more risky, though Hand only pitched in front of a shifted defense 20.8% of the time last year, below the 33.6% league average. If metrics like FIP, xERA and SIERA are right, he’s due for some regression, but he’s kept his ERA below those numbers two years in a row now. Perhaps he’d be best suited to a club that has strong faith in its defense and pitcher-friendly ballpark, with the Cardinals jumping out as a nice fit. But his market has been quiet this winter and Spring Training kicks off in just over a week.

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