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The Opener: Pham, Lefty Relief Market, Righty Bats

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With a little over two months until Opening Day, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today around the baseball world:

1. Pham/Mets deal to be made official

Shortly after reports of Tommy Pham’s one-year, $6MM agreement with the Mets came in yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the signing will be made official today. The Mets currently have a full 40-man roster, so in order to make Pham’s deal official, a corresponding move will be required. The acquisition of Pham likely rounds out a bench that already sports Luis Guillorme, Darin Ruf, and Tomas Nido, likely pushing center fielder Khalil Lee down to Triple-A unless an additional move such as a trade of Ruf clears space. Such a move isn’t strictly necessary, however, because while there are no center fielders on New York’s bench, both Starling Marte and Mark Canha have center field experience despite starting in the corner spots in deference to Brandon Nimmo.

2. Is the lefty relief market about to heat up?

A fresh batch of rumors made the rounds yesterday concerning the market for left-handed relievers. Just a day after the Marlins were reported to have interest in departing Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, the Royals and Padres were added to the list of teams interested in the lefty fireballer’s services. Chapman, 35 in February, is looking to bounce back from a career-worst 4.46 ERA (88 ERA+) in 2022. Last year’s was his first below-average ERA in a career that has only seen him post a mark above 3.50 one other time, when he posted a 3.60 ERA for the Reds back in 2011.

Andrew Chafin, the top remaining reliever on the free agent market follow two excellent seasons with the Cubs, A’s, and Tigers, is reportedly seeing his market begin to heat up, with the Mets among seven teams known to be interested in his services. Earlier in the week, both Chafin and Matt Moore were connected to the Cubs, who appear focused on adding another bullpen arm ahead of Spring Training, with a preference for a lefty. Zack Britton, Will Smith, and Brad Hand are among the most recognizable lefties also still available in free agency.

3. Will the run on right-handed outfield bats continue?

Just as the stage could be set for a run on left-handed relievers, we’ve seen quite a few veteran right-handed bats come off the board this week. Andrew McCutchen’s return to the Pirates kicked things off, and it’s been followed by Adam Duvall agreeing with the Red Sox, Brian Anderson heading to Milwaukee, Tommy Pham landing with the Mets and Kevin Pillar inking a minor league deal with the Braves. Options in this regard are dwindling, but switch-hitters Jurickson Profar and Robbie Grossman remain unsigned, as do pure righties Chad Pinder, Albert Almora and Stephen Piscotty. As this subsection of the market begins to move, those names could find increased interest. Meanwhile, the trade market offers names like Michael A. Taylor (despite a lofty asking price) and Ramon Laureano (who may not be moved this offseason).

Red Sox, Raimel Tapia Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are in agreement with Raimel Tapia, as the free agent outfielder himself first indicated on Instagram. It’s a minor league deal for Tapia, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll be invited to the major league side of Sox camp and can make $2 million with some additional performance bonuses if he cracks the MLB roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Tapia is repped by Dream One Sports Group.

Tapia, 29 next month, joins the third organization of his professional career. The speedster first signed with the Rockies as an amateur from the Dominican Republic over the 2010-11 international period. A few years later, Tapia emerged as one of the sport’s more promising prospects. Evaluators praised his athleticism and bat-to-ball skills and suggested he could develop into a prototypical top-of-the-lineup sparkplug for Colorado.

The left-handed hitter got to the majors in 2016 but saw sporadic action for his first three seasons. He finally landed everyday playing time during the 2019 campaign and was a lineup regular for the next three years. Tapia indeed showed quality contact skills and speed at the MLB level, though he never consistently produced offensively. He owns a very aggressive approach and doesn’t have significant power, leading to an overall profile that’s heavily reliant on singles falling into play.

Tapia hit .280/.325/.395 in a little more than 1400 trips to the plate through the end of the 2021 season. Last spring, Colorado dealt Tapia to the Blue Jays for Randal Grichuk. The move balanced each club’s respective lineup, but neither player performed at a high level in 2022. Tapia posted a .265/.292/.380 line with seven home runs through 433 plate appearances, keeping his strikeouts at a modest 18.7% clip but drawing free passes less than 4% of the time he came to the plate. At season’s end, the Jays non-tendered him rather than retain him via arbitration on a salary that was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at $5.2MM.

Over the course of his career, Tapia has suited up at all three outfield positions. The vast majority of his work has come in left field, where public metrics have pegged him as a roughly average defender. Tapia has rated reasonably well in a little over 400 career innings in center but never got much run there in deference to Charlie Blackmon and George Springer, respectively.

The Red Sox have looked to stockpile up-the-middle options in the wake of Xander Bogaerts’ free agent departure and Trevor Story’s injury. The free agent center field market is extremely thin at this stage of the offseason, leaving teams to sort through imperfect defensive fits or glove-first depth players. Boston agreed to a one-year deal with Adam Duvall yesterday, adding a right-handed bat to the mix. Tapia joins Jarren Duran as a left-handed option in the center field mix, though he’ll need to earn his way onto the roster with a strong spring showing.

A’s Reportedly Not Pursuing Ramon Laureano Trade

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Over the past 18 months, the A’s have traded away most of the core players on the roster as a means of stripping down payroll. While much of that teardown was orchestrated either last offseason or at the summer deadline, it continued with the three-team deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta last month.

Given Oakland’s recent activity, it stands to reason virtually anyone on the roster with an MLB track record could be a viable trade candidate. Outfielder Ramón Laureano is one of the team’s more established remaining players and could be the subject of attention from other clubs. However, Dan Hayes of the Athletic reports the A’s didn’t show much interest in dealing Laureano after the Twins inquired on his availability.

It’d be a surprise if the A’s had anyone firmly off the table, perhaps aside from pre-arbitration players they hope will be building blocks of their next contender like Shea Langeliers and Esteury Ruiz. Nevertheless, there’s good reason for general manager David Forst and his front office to be reluctant to pursue a Laureano deal over the offseason. The 28-year-old outfielder is coming off the worst season of his career, putting his value at a low ebb.

Laureano had an impressive debut with Oakland late in the 2018 campaign. He backed that up the following season with 24 home runs in 123 games. His offensive numbers dipped during the shortened 2020 schedule but bounced back through the first few months of ’21. Laureano was sitting on a .246/.317/.443 line over his first 378 plate appearances. That’s not an eye-catching slash at first glance but marked offensive production 13 points above the league average as measured by wRC+ given Oakland’s pitcher-friendly home park.

His 2021 season was brought to an abrupt end in August after he tested positive for the performance-enhancing drug Nandrolone. That resulted in an 80-game suspension that carried over into the start of last season. Laureano returned in April but saw his production crater. He hit .211/.287/.376 over 94 games, with the batting average and on-base percentage each representing career worsts. Only in 2020 did he have a lesser slugging mark.

The residual effects of the suspension aren’t the sole possible explanation for Laureano’s down year. He carried a .223/.300/.395 line into mid-August, production that was below his previous career standards but still marginally above average after adjusting for the ballpark. He suffered a left oblique strain on August 15 and landed on the injured list. Upon returning three weeks later, he limped to a .108/.175/.216 mark in 40 trips to the dish before suffering a hamstring strain that ended his season.

Coming off that year, it’s certainly not an ideal time for Oakland to move him. Laureano’s suspension kept him from surpassing four years of service time last season — players don’t accrue service while on the restricted list — and extended Oakland’s window of arbitration control by another season. He’s eligible for arbitration through the end of 2025 and making $3.55MM for the coming season. That’s affordable even for a team that runs one of the league’s lowest payrolls. That all leaves open the potential for Oakland to hold Laureano into the coming season and reevaluate offers at the deadline after a hopeful better first half from the right-handed hitter.

Another club making a very strong offer in the coming weeks could change the calculus for Oakland, of course. It’s hard to imagine they’d steadfastly refuse to entertain any trade discussions on Laureano. Yet it’s also understandable the club doesn’t seem particularly eager to shop him with his stock at its current point. Assuming he stays in Oakland, he’ll join the likes of Ruiz, Seth Brown (if he’s not dealt himself), Cristian Pache, Conner Capel and Brent Rooker in the outfield mix.

Details On 2022 Team Payrolls

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The Mets had the sport’s highest competitive balance tax payroll in 2022, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. For CBT purposes, New York’s final tally checked in at $299.8MM. According to the report, that was around $2MM higher than the 2015 Dodgers’ $297.9MM mark that had stood as the previous spending record.

New York is responsible for a $30.8MM tax bill, the second-largest tally in the majors, after paying the tax for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers will foot the highest tax payment at $32.4MM, Blum writes. While Los Angeles’ $293.3MM CBT payroll trailed that of the Mets, the Dodgers were subject to higher penalties as a payor for a second consecutive season.

The Mets are sure to shatter their own record this coming season, as they’re currently projected for a tax number north of $368MM. The Dodgers have trimmed spending, reportedly in hopes of resetting their tax status this year in preparation for a more active offseason next winter. They’re narrowly above the lowest CBT threshold at the moment. Roster Resource forecasts the Dodgers at approximately $238MM, around $5MM north of this year’s $233MM base threshold.

As the Associated Press first reported last September, six teams went over the CBT mark in 2022. Blum reports today the specifics of the payments owed by the Yankees ($9.7MM), Phillies ($2.9MM), Padres ($1.5MM as a second-time payor) and Red Sox ($1.2MM). The final three figures, in particular, are very modest expenditures relative to club payrolls. Nevertheless, the decision to narrowly surpass the threshold is significant in that it raises penalties for payments in future seasons and alters teams’ compensation for signing or losing qualified free agents. The Padres and Phillies surely don’t have regrets after each posted one of the best years in recent franchise history, but the decision didn’t translate to success in the Red Sox’s case. Blum writes that the tax money will be paid to MLB by the end of this week.

A team’s CBT number is determined by the average annual value of a club’s commitments plus player benefits and their contributions to the new bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. The CBT figure isn’t a match for an organization’s actual player payroll in a given season. Blum reports each club’s final raw payroll figure as well, with the Mets again fronting the pack at roughly $274.9MM. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Astros and Blue Jays filled out the top ten.

On the other side, the A’s had the lowest payroll at approximately $49MM. The bottom 10 was rounded out by the Orioles, Pirates, Guardians, Marlins, Royals, Rays, D-Backs, Reds and Mariners. Full team data is available at the AP link.

Twins Sign Chris Paddack To Extension

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On Wednesday evening, the Twins announced a three-year contract with right-hander Chris Paddack. The deal covers his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and buys out what would’ve been his first free agent season in 2025. Paddack reportedly receives a $2.5MM salary for the coming season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.525MM in 2024 and $7.5MM during the ’25 campaign. The Boras Corporation client would earn an additional $500K for reaching both 140 and 150 innings in 2025, with another $750K available at the 160 and 170-inning thresholds.

Paddack, who turned 27 earlier this month, was acquired by the Twins last April in a deal with the Padres that also saw Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan change uniforms. Unfortunately for the Twins, Paddack managed just 22 1/3 innings with the club before he landed on the injured list with an elbow issue. Paddack later underwent Tommy John surgery in May, with August 2023 as the reported target for his return to big league play.

Paddack was an instant success in his 2019 debut season with the Padres, posting a 3.33 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.95 FIP across 26 starts and racked up 153 strikeouts in just 140 2/3 innings of work. The shortened 2020 season saw him struggle mightily, however, as his ERA ballooned to 4.73 (89 ERA+) and his FIP similarly rose to 5.02 across 59 innings. One factor in this was his ghastly HR/FB rate of 25.0%, nearly double his 14.6% rate from 2019.

His home run rate returned to normal in 2021, but Paddack continued to struggle. In 108 1/3 innings in 2021, Paddack posted an ERA of 5.07 (77 ERA+), the worst of his career. Paddack’s 3.72 FIP in 2021 indicates that there may have been some bad luck built into those results, but there was reason for concern nonetheless: his strikeout rate had plummeted. After striking out 9.8 batters per 9 in his debut 2019 season, that rate dipped to 8.8 in 2020 and then dipped again in 2021, all the way down to 8.2, good for a strikeout rate in just the 35th percentile that year.

Of course, it should be noted that Paddack struggled with injuries throughout the 2021 season, which certainly could have impacted his performance. Paddack spent over two months on the injured list in 2021 across three separate IL stints, suggesting he may not have been fully healthy even when he was on the mound that season. Between his youth and injury history, there’s reason to believe Paddack could return to a form more in line with his 2019 debut once he’s fully healthy, an outcome the Twins are betting on with this deal.

In extending Paddack, the Twins provide the right-hander with some security during his rehab process and return to the pitcher’s mound, while buying themselves an extra year of team control for a pitcher with substantial upside. Should Paddack return to the mound late in the season, he will join a somewhat full rotation mix that currently includes Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober. With that being said, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are all set to hit the free agent market following the 2023, leaving Paddack as a likely key cog in Minnesota’s 2024 rotation.

With four years of service time, Paddack was set to be eligible for arbitration both this offseason and next, with MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz having projected him for $2.4MM during this round of arbitration. With this deal, Paddack forgoes a potential raise through the arbitration process next year in addition to a year of free agency, though he is still set hit the market at age 30 following the 2025 campaign. A cost-controlled starter like Paddack is a huge boon to Minnesota’s payroll flexibility going forward- while their projected payroll for the 2024 season is just $65MM per RosterResource (prior to the inclusion of arb-eligible players on the roster), the Twins are, as previously mentioned, set to lose three members of their rotation this offseason, potentially in addition to two starting outfielders in Joey Gallo and Max Kepler. While youngsters like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach could step up in the outfield, it seems almost certain that the Twins will have to supplement their core in free agency next year. Cost certainty with Paddack could help them be more aggressive in making those additions and maximizing the early years of Carlos Correa’s new six-year deal with the club.

Matt Braun of Twins Daily was first to report the Twins and Paddack had agreed to a three-year contract. Dan Hayes of the Athletic was first with the $12.5MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the salary breakdown. The Associated Press was first with the specifics of the incentives.

David Phelps Announces Retirement

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Right-hander David Phelps is retiring, he announced this evening through his agents at Wasserman (Twitter link). Phelps thanked his former teammates, coaches, medical staff, agency and family as well as all the organizations for which he played in a lengthy statement.

A Notre Dame product, Phelps cracked the professional ranks a 14th-round selection of the Yankees in 2008. A few seasons of strong minor league performance garnered him some prospect attention as a potential back-end starter. He reached the big leagues for the first time in April 2012, kicking off a rookie season in which he’d post a 3.34 ERA through 99 2/3 innings. Phelps also pitched three times for New York that postseason, logging 3 1/3 innings in what would prove his only career playoff action.

Phelps started 11 of 33 outings for New York that year and held a similar swing role for the next couple seasons. For the first three seasons of his career, he’d toss 299 1/3 innings with the Yankees over 87 appearances (40 starts). He posted a cumulative 4.21 ERA while holding opponents to a .251/.330/.399 slash. Over the 2014-15 offseason, New York dealt Phelps and infielder Martín Prado to the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and then Low-A pitcher Domingo Germán, who’s still a Yankee more than eight years later.

During his first season with the Fish, Phelps remained primarily a rotation member. He started 19 of 23 outings, working to a 4.50 ERA. By his second season in South Florida, he’d moved almost exclusively to relief. That kicked off a second act as a generally reliable bullpen arm. Phelps posted a 2.28 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout percentage over 86 2/3 innings in 2016. After throwing another 47 frames with a 3.45 ERA in the next season’s first half, he changed organizations for a second time.

The Mariners acquired Phelps in a deadline deal that sent four prospects to Miami. Three of those players never reached the big leagues, but the Marlins’ acquisition of then High-A righty Pablo López turned out exceptionally well. The trade wasn’t especially successful for the Mariners, as Phelps pitched just 10 times before suffering an injury to his throwing elbow. He first underwent surgery to remove bone chips from the joint, then unfortunately required a Tommy John reconstruction that cost him the entire 2018 campaign.

Phelps hit free agency for the first time that offseason, landing with the Blue Jays on a buy-low $2.5MM pact. Once he returned to health, he proved a single middle-innings option for Toronto. Phelps performed well in 17 appearances before being traded to the Cubs at the deadline for Tom Hatch. He had a fine second half before again hitting free agency when Chicago declined a club option for 2020.

The past three seasons have seen the Missouri native continue to bounce around the league. He signed a one-year guarantee with Milwaukee going into 2020 and was dealt to the Phillies for a trio of minor league pitchers at the deadline. Phelps was hit hard in his limited time with Philadelphia, leading the club to decline an option. He returned to Toronto on a one-year deal over the offseason and got off to a brilliant start through mid-May.

Injuries again intervened, though, as Phelps suffered a rupture of his right lat. That required season-ending surgery, one which Phelps acknowledged he initially believed would end his career. He was fortunately able to rehab and got another shot on a minor league deal with Toronto last offseason. He cracked the MLB roster out of camp for what’d be his third season as a Blue Jay.

Phelps would conclude his career with a flourish. He stayed healthy all year, a significant accomplishment in its own right given the injury he’d suffered the season before. Phelps posted his best numbers since his Miami days, providing the Jays 63 2/3 innings of 2.83 ERA ball through 65 appearances. That’d quite likely have earned him another MLB contract this winter if he wanted to return for an 11th season. Phelps indicated he’d known by the end of last season he was finished playing, however.

He spent a decade and a half in the professional ranks, including the past 10 years at the MLB level. Over 682 2/3 career frames, he posted a 3.80 ERA while striking out 22.9% of opposing hitters. In addition to his 67 starts, he finished out 45 games (including seven saves). Phelps held 78 leads as a middle reliever or setup option, suiting up for seven organizations. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings a hair above $15MM. MLBTR congratulates Phelps on a long and accomplished career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.

Rays Sign Heath Hembree, Ben Heller, Zack Burdi To Minor League Deals

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The Rays have signed three righties to minor league deals, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Heath Hembree, Ben Heller and Zack Burdi will all receive invitations to major league Spring Training.

Hembree, 34, is easily the most experienced of the bunch. He’s appeared in each of the past 10 major league seasons, getting into 357 games over his career thus far. He had some really good years for the Red Sox from 2014 to 2019 but has gone into journeyman mode over the past few campaigns, suiting up for the Sox, Phillies, Mets, Reds, Pirates and Dodgers since the start of 2020.

Last year, Hembree made 26 appearances between the Bucs and Dodgers but registered a 7.36 ERA in that time. He posted matching 15.9% strikeout and walk rates, with both of those figures worse than league average. It was a disappointing season but he’s not far removed from a 2021 campaign where he struck out 34.2% of batters faced against a 9.9% walk rate. A 59% strand rate pushed his ERA up to 5.59 that year with advanced metrics feeling he deserved much better, such as a 3.15 xERA, 4.34 FIP and 3.11 SIERA.

Heller, 31, appeared in 31 major league games from 2016 to 2020, all of those with the Yankees. He has a career 2.59 ERA over those years, though that’s surely depressed by an unsustainable 98.4% strand rate. He struck out 21.7% of batters faced in that time, walking 10.9% of them and got grounders on 40.9% of balls in play. He spent some time last year with the Twins on a minor league deal, throwing 8 2/3 innings with a 9.35 ERA.

Burdi, 28 in March, was a first round selection of the White Sox in the 2016 draft. Unfortunately, injuries have taken a toll on his progress thus far, including 2017 Tommy John surgery. He eventually made 15 appearances over 2020 and 2021, throwing a combined 17 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he posted a 7.79 ERA in that time with a 20.9% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 34.5% ground ball rate. He signed a minor league deal with the Nats for 2022 but was only healthy enough to throw 13 innings down on the farm, though he did post a 1.38 ERA in that small sample.

All three players will provide the Rays with some non-roster pitching depth and try to earn their way back to the majors. If either Burdi or Heller make their way onto the roster, they each still have one option year remaining, potentially giving Tampa some roster flexibility. Burdi has less than a year of service time and could be retained for future seasons cheaply, while Heller is over the three-year mark and would qualify for arbitration if holding onto a spot at season’s end. Hembree, however, is over six years of service and would qualify for free agency.

Braves, Kevin Pillar Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves and outfielder Kevin Pillar are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. Pillar will make a $3MM salary if he cracks the club’s roster. He’s a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Pillar, 34, was selected by the Blue Jays in the 32nd round of the 2011 draft. He worked his way up to the majors by 2013 and took over an everyday job in 2015, which he held with the Jays through 2018. Over those four seasons, Pillar got into 601 games and hit .263/.301/.401. That production was 12% below league average by measure of wRC+, but Pillar was able to provide value with his speed and defense. He stole 68 bases in that period while producing 57 Defensive Runs Saved and got a 29.4 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating.

The Jays went into a rebuild in the latter parts of that timeframe and they flipped Pillar to the Giants in April of 2019. That began the journeyman phase of Pillar’s career, as he’s suited up for the Giants, Red Sox, Rockies, Mets and Dodgers over the past few campaigns. He’s continued to hit at a similar rate but his work in the field has naturally slipped as he’s gotten deeper into his 30s.

The most significant variant for Pillar this year will likely be his health. He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers last year and posted a huge .315/.412/.622 batting line in 36 Triple-A games. That production led to a 150 wRC+, indicating he was 50% above league average. He got selected to the big league team in May but was placed on the injured list after appearing in just four games due to a left shoulder fracture. That injury required surgery which was initially reported as “season-ending,” though Pillar did attempt a late-season comeback by starting a rehab assignment in September. There wasn’t quite enough runway for Pillar to return, however, and his season was limited to just those four contests.

For the Braves, two of their outfield jobs are spoken for by Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II. The left field position is less settled, with various in-house options. Eddie Rosario. Marcell Ozuna, Sam Hilliard, Eli White and Jordan Luplow will likely be battling each other for either full- or part-time work with the big league club. If Pillar is healthy and looks good in spring or as the season gets going, he could work his way into the mix if an opportunity presents itself.

Pillar’s $3MM salary is larger than most players on minor league deals normally secure, which is somewhat noteworthy for a club that’s slated to go into luxury tax territory for the first time. Roster Resource currently pegs their competitive balance tax figure at $241MM, beyond the $233MM base threshold. Assuming they don’t find a way to shed some salary and dip back beneath the line, they’re lined up to pay a 20% tax on all spending that goes over the boundary, which would include Pillar’s salary if he makes the team.

Red Sox Have Received “Significant” Interest In Tanner Houck

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Demand for controllable starting pitching is, as always, through the roof in Major League Baseball, but it’s in perhaps shorter supply than at any point in recent years. The Marlins are one of the few teams with starting pitching available on the trade market, as they’re reportedly open to offers on just about anyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Perez. Other options are few and far between, though Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes that the Red Sox have received “significant” trade interest in righty Tanner Houck as teams explore alternatives to Miami’s starting pitching glut.

That’s not to say that a deal of Houck is expected or likely. Houck doesn’t have a definite role on Boston’s starting staff thanks to the presence of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello, but the injury risk among that group means that Houck can’t be expressly ruled out of the running, either. Sale has pitched just 48 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, and Paxton has just 21 2/3 frames across the past three MLB seasons combined. Kluber rebounded with 164 innings in 2022 but prior to that had thrown just 116 2/3 innings over a three-year period himself.

Moreover, the 26-year-old Houck could yet find himself with a pivotal role in Boston’s bullpen after impressing as a reliever in 2022. Just four of Houck’s 32 appearances last year were starts; he tossed 43 1/3 innings out of the Red Sox’ bullpen and worked to a sterling 2.70 ERA with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 53% grounder rate. Overall, the former No. 24 overall draft pick logged a 3.15 ERA in 60 innings between his two roles, showing roughly average strikeout rates with slightly below-average command but above-average ground-ball tendencies.

It was the continuation of a strong start to Houck’s still-fledgling career. The hard-throwing righty made his debut when he started three games in the shortened 2020 season, and overall he’s pitched 146 innings of 3.02 ERA ball at the MLB level. However, he’s never topped 119 innings in a professional season, and his 2022 campaign ended in August when he required surgery to address a back injury.

Prior to his big league debut, Houck had some struggles against left-handed opponents, although he’s worked to incorporate a splitter, which has helped to remedy that issue. A hefty 89% of the splitters Houck has thrown over the past two seasons have come against left-handed batters, and in his career opponents have mustered an awful .115/.207/.231 output against the pitch.

Houck is controlled for another five seasons and won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 campaign. As such, it’s only natural that opposing teams would inquire about his availability. That doesn’t necessarily mean a trade is looming, although the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported just two weeks ago that the Red Sox were open to dealing a big league pitcher — “potentially including Houck” — in the right deal. Cotillo, meanwhile, adds that the Sox would be more willing to part with Houck than either Whitlock or Bello, although again, that’s a far cry from saying Houck is someone the Sox are looking to move. That Speier report came before it was publicly known that Trevor Story’s entire 2023 season was in jeopardy following an elbow injury that necessitated internal brace surgery.

In the weeks since that report from Speier, the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Adam Duvall, whom they believe can handle center field for them, and brought in veterans like outfielder Greg Allen and catcher Jorge Alfaro on minor league deals. The Red Sox aren’t punting on the 2023 season in the wake of Story’s injury — not after already signing Kluber, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez for a combined $173.2MM.

As such, it stands to reason that any deal involving Houck would need to involve Major League talent heading back to Boston. The Sox could theoretically withstand the subtraction of Houck from the pitching staff thanks to those aforementioned bullpen additions and a decent crop of depth options in the rotation (which, in addition to the previously listed names, includes Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata and Kutter Crawford). There’s also quite a bit of rotation depth still available in free agency, so the Sox could always look to backfill via the open market in the event that they trade a current starting pitcher.

Potential areas for improvement on the big league roster include the middle infield, where Enrique Hernandez and Christian Arroyo figure to play prominent roles following Story’s injury, and behind the plate, where the combination of Reese McGuire, Connor Wong and Alfaro could all vie for time. It’s feasible, too, that the Sox could still pursue a long-term option in center field, although those are also in short supply this winter and the addition of Duvall at least ostensibly lessens such a need.

For now, it seems the Sox plan to head to camp with the idea of Houck stretching out as a starter, then scale him back to a short relief role if necessary. That said, given the dearth of options for teams seeking rotation help on the trade market, this probably won’t be the last time Houck’s name pops up on the rumor mill in the weeks leading up to Spring Training. There’s no indication a deal is likely, but other teams will surely make efforts to pry Houck and others loose — particularly now that a major injury to Story has altered Boston’s 2023 outlook.

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