Padres Injury Notes: Engel, Soto, Nola, Bogaerts, Musgrove
Adam Engel suffered a hamstring injury during Thursday’s Cactus League game, putting his availability for the Padres’ Opening Day roster in severe jeopardy. “Hamstrings can be a little bit [tricky] so we’ll see how he progresses, but…I think it’d be tough for him to make another game here in Spring Training,” Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters, including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
Engel’s progress was already slowed by a calf strain earlier in camp, and the outfielder has played in only six Spring Training games. Between this lack of ramp-up period and the time it’ll take for Engel to recover from his current hamstring issue, a stint on the 10-day injured list certainly looks probable for Engel at the beginning of the season.
The Padres signed Engel to a one-year deal this winter with an eye towards using the veteran as a fourth outfielder, given Engel’s strong track record as a defender. With Fernando Tatis Jr. still having to serve 20 games left on his PED suspension, Engel was tapped for a good amount of playing time in April, but it is now possible Tatis might get back onto the field before Engel does, depending on the severity of the hamstring issue.
In better news for San Diego’s outfield, Juan Soto might be able to avoid the IL in the wake of the mild oblique strain that sidelined him last weekend. The Padres have naturally been very careful with Soto, but he was making some light throws in the outfield and taking dry swings yesterday, in a positive step this early in his recovery process from any kind of oblique problem.
With some cautious optimism about Soto and now some doubt over Engel, it still seems as though the Padres will have at least one outfield job available on the Opening Day roster. Jose Azocar and Brandon Dixon are the internal choices, and perhaps more than one of David Dahl, Tim Lopes, and Rougned Odor could have their minor league contracts selected to the roster. To help his chances of making the team, Odor recently saw some action in left field, despite never playing in the outfield before during his pro career.
Like Soto, Austin Nola might also be in the Opening Day lineup despite an ominous late-spring setback, as Nola was hit in the face by a Michael Fulmer pitch on Sunday and suffered a fractured nose and three stitches. While that diagnosis isn’t exactly good, Nola was “so glad it’s what it is and not the eyes, a concussion or any of that stuff,” he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. The catcher might now even get back into game action before Spring Training is over, as Nola caught Seth Lugo‘s bullpen session yesterday.
Xander Bogaerts received a cortisone shot in his left wrist, and isn’t expected to play again until Sunday. As Melvin told Sanders and company, “there’s no concern, [Bogaerts] has one of these a spring,” due to periodic soreness in his wrist. The prized signing of San Diego’s offseason, Bogaerts is in no danger of missing his first Opening Day in a Padres uniform.
One player guaranteed to miss some time is Joe Musgrove, who suffered an unfortunate fluke injury in late February when a weight-room accident resulted in a broken left big toe. The Padres ace’s recovery timeline has become more clear as he has been rehabbing the injury, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes (via Twitter) that Musgrove will hit another important checkpoint when he pitches in a minor league spring game on Monday.
The right-hander will miss relatively little time, as Acee notes that Musgrove is being tentatively scheduled to make his season debut on either April 11 or April 16. However, the Padres still face a rotation crunch with Musgrove sidelined and Yu Darvish still properly ramping up after his usual spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic. As a result, San Diego might deploy a six-man rotation to help manage arms during an unusually busy early schedule — the Padres play games on 24 of the first 25 days of the new season. Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Michael Wacha, Jay Groome, Lugo, and Darvish would comprise the rotation until Musgrove’s return could shuffle things up.
Chris Owings Won’t Make Pirates’ Roster, Accepts Reassignment To Minor Leagues
Earlier today, Pirates general manager Ben Cherington informed Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that several veterans on minor league deals have opt-outs in their contracts. Infielder/outfielder Chris Owings and right-hander Tyler Chatwood can each opt out today if they are not going to make the Opening Day roster, while catcher Tyler Heineman has an upward mobility clause that will let him depart on Monday if another team is willing to give him a spot. Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic now reports that Owings has been informed he won’t make the club. Instead of triggering the opt-out, he will head to minor league camp on Sunday and begin the season in Triple-A. The fates of the other two players aren’t publicly known at this time.
Owings, 31, spent the first few seasons of his career with the Diamondbacks but has become a journeyman in recent years, suiting up for the Royals, Red Sox, Rockies and Orioles over the past few campaigns. His past two seasons form a textbook illustration of the perils of small sample sizes, in both directions. With the Rockies in 2021, he hit .326/.420/.628 while limited by a thumb injury to just 21 games. With the Orioles last year, he hit .107/.254/.143 in 27 games before getting designated for assignment. Overall, his career batting line is .239/.287/.366, wRC+ of 66.
Despite that tepid offense, Owings can provide defensive versatility. In his career, he’s played everywhere on the diamond except first base and catcher. The Pirates will likely have Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen in the outfield most days, with Ke’Bryan Hayes at third and Oneil Cruz at shortstop. Second base is a bit less clear, with options on the roster including Rodolfo Castro, Ji Hwan Bae, Mark Mathias and Liover Peguero. Owings could have been considered for a bench role, but the club evidently feels they have sufficient coverage from those many infielders, as well as outfielders already on the roster like Connor Joe, Canaan Smith-Njigba and others. Owings could have returned to the open market but seems content to head to Indianapolis to try to work his way into a roster spot later on.
Chatwood, 33, is a veteran starter that has transitioned into a relief role in recent years. He made 32 appearances in 2021 between the Blue Jays and Giants, but with an unsightly 5.63 ERA and 14.5% walk rate. Control has long been an issue for Chatwood but he’s always tantalized with big strikeout totals as well. Last year, he joined the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Nippon Professional Baseball but shoulder surgery wiped out his season after just six appearances. This spring, he’s made five appearances, allowing nine earned runs while walking six and striking out four.
Heineman, 32 in June, was claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays in May of last year. He hit .211/.277/.254 for the Bucs and was non-tendered at season’s end, but rejoined the club on a minor league deal. He’s hitting .095 here in spring thus far but seems to be in the running for a backup catcher job behind Austin Hedges. The only other backstop currently on the roster is prospect Endy Rodríguez, who has already been optioned to minor league camp. Kevin Plawecki was recently informed he won’t be making the team and he will be triggering his opt out. That seems to leave Heineman and Jason Delay as the frontrunners for the backup job, though the club will have to make a decision on Heineman soon.
Rangers Shut Down Glenn Otto For Three Weeks
Rangers general manager Chris Young provided some updates on injured pitchers to members of the media today, including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (Twitter links). Right-hander Glenn Otto, who recently underwent an MRI for right lat tightness, will be shut down for three weeks and be re-examined by Dr. Keith Meister on Monday. As for right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who is dealing with arm fatigue and expected to start the season on the injured list, Young says he will likely be out “longer than shorter.” Elsewhere on the club’s pitching front, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports that righty Joe Barlow has been optioned to Triple-A, while righty Dominic Leone has been released from his minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com.
Otto, 27, made 27 starts for the Rangers last year, posting a 4.64 ERA. He might have actually been lucky to keep runs off the board at that pace, as his 18.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate were both subpar, while his .255 batting average on balls in play was well below the .289 league average. The club pushed him down the depth chart with a busy offseason, acquiring Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Odorizzi.
Although Otto wasn’t likely to make the club’s roster on Opening Day, it’s still a notable subtraction from their starting depth. No team goes through an entire major league season using just five starters, meaning depth options will be used at some point. Otto still has a full slate of options, allowing the club to keep a guy with notable major league experience in Triple-A. Now he seems ticketed for an extended absence. Even if a three-week shutdown period helps him recover from his injury, he would then have to ramp back up at that point, which is why a trip to the 60-day IL seems to be on the table.
Compounding the issue is the fact that Odorizzi seems to slated for a significant absence as well. He was the club’s #6 starter behind deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney, Martín Pérez and Jon Gray, and likely would have opened the season as a long man in the major league bullpen. It was already known that he was going to begin the season on the injured list due to arm fatigue, but it’s possible he’s a facing a meaningful absence. Young’s “longer than shorter” comment is incredibly vague but is obviously not encouraging.
Odorizzi split last year between Houston and Atlanta, making 22 starts between the two clubs. He posted a 4.40 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 31.7% ground ball rate. He exercised a $12.5MM player option in his contract but Atlanta flipped him to the Rangers, paying down $10MM of the deal while getting lefty Kolby Allard in return. Though Odorizzi’s 2022 numbers aren’t incredibly exciting, he’s better than the #6 starter on many clubs around the league.
Though the Rangers still have a healthy front five, they are now without two of their better depth options. That’s a notable development, given the injury histories of guys like deGrom, Eovaldi and Heaney. They have some other starters on the 40-man, such as Spencer Howard, Cole Winn, Zak Kent, Owen White and Ricky Vanasco, though Howard is the only one with any major league experience. He has a 7.09 ERA in his 111 2/3 MLB innings thus far. Cole Ragans and Dane Dunning are probably first in line for a rotation spot if one opens up, though they seem ticketed to start the season in the major league bullpen.
Turning to the relievers, Barlow has a 2.81 ERA in 64 major league innings over the past two seasons. It’s somewhat surprising to see him optioned after that performance, but Landry relays that both Young and Barlow mentioned that his velocity is down. He underwent wrist surgery in November and could be still building up his strength or perhaps his mechanics have been altered post-surgery. Either way, he’ll head to the minors to try to get into a good groove.
Leone, 31, is a veteran who has appeared in each of the past nine seasons. He made 55 appearances for the Giants last year with a 4.01 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 38.9% ground ball rate. He tossed 8 1/3 innings here in spring with a 2.16 ERA, but he walked eight batters while striking out five. It seems the Rangers didn’t have a spot for him and will let him return to the open market to look for his next opportunity.
Blue Jays Release Jay Jackson
The Blue Jays released right-hander Jay Jackson from his minor league deal with the team, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (Twitter link). Jackson’s deal included a clause requiring the Jays to release him today if he wasn’t going to make the Major League roster.
The 35-year-old Jackson is a veteran of four MLB seasons, as well as four seasons pitching in Nippon Professional Baseball. Since returning to North America during the 2020 season, Jackson has been a member of four different organizations, and seen time at the big league level with the Giants and Braves. After tossing 21 2/3 innings with San Francisco in 2021, Jackson appeared in just two games with Atlanta last year, mostly due to a lat strain that kept him on the injured list for almost half the season. It marked the second straight injury-riddled year for Jackson, as a hamstring tear kept him on the shelf for a big chunk of the 2021 campaign.
According to Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling, five other teams besides Toronto had interest in Jackson as a free agent last year, so it is quite possible he could land elsewhere in pretty quick fashion. Between his strong numbers in Japan and at the Triple-A level when healthy, Jackson would certainly seem to have something left to offer interested suitors, especially after a big Spring Training.
With a flawless 0.00 ERA in 9 1/3 innings and 13 strikeouts in 37 batters faced this spring, one would imagine the Jays would’ve been able to find room for Jackson had they not already had a bullpen full of pretty established relief options. Jackson took something of a different approach to his free agency this offseason, as he told Zwelling that he wants to pitch for a winning team, even if that means a more difficult route to winning a bullpen job.
Mets Sign Dylan Bundy To Minor League Deal
The Mets have signed right-hander Dylan Bundy to a minor league deal, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Bundy, 30, signed with the Twins last year on a one-year deal with a club option, eventually making 29 starts with a 4.89 ERA. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 34% ground ball rate were both well shy of league average, but he kept runs off the board by limiting walks to a 4.7% rate. The Twins could have retained Bundy for another season by picking up his $11MM option but went for the $1MM buyout instead, returning him to the open market.
The righty lingered in free agency all winter as other starting pitching options flew off the board. He’s long been one of the best options still available, though he didn’t seem to garner too much public interest this winter. He’s had some solid years in his major league career but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that surrounded him about a decade ago. Selected by the Orioles with the 4th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bundy jumped onto Baseball America’s list of the top prospects across the league the following year. He nabbed the #10 spot in 2012, making his MLB debut that year and jumped to #2 going into 2013. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in 2013, wiping out that season and much of 2014 as well, with a shoulder injury limiting him to eight minor league starts in 2015.
Bundy finally made it back to the big leagues in 2016 after missing the previous three campaigns. He posted a 4.02 ERA that year and has had some decent seasons since then, but never really moving past the production of a mid-rotation starter. Though he posted a 3.29 ERA in the shortened 2020 campaign, his best figure in a full season is that 4.02 mark from back in 2016. His career ERA currently sits at 4.74. He’s struck out 21.9% of batters faced in his career but the drop off to 15.8% last year was certainly steep. His fastball averaged just 89 mph last year, a drop from 90.7 mph the year before and well down from the 94.4 he had back in 2016.
With the drop in velocity and strikeouts, it’s hardly surprising that Bundy had to settle for this minor league deal. That being said, it’s a very sensible addition for a Mets club that has question marks in its rotation. They went into spring with an excellent on-paper group of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. That was a group to be excited about, though there was also some risk, given that four of them are older than 34 years old. The youngest one, 30-year-old Senga, will be making the challenging transition from the once-a-week pitching schedule in Japan to the five-day rotation of North American ball. It was fair to wonder if that might leave the club vulnerable to health or fatigue concerns, and those fears were realized when Quintana went down with a fractured rib that will keep him out until July.
Quintana’s injury meant that the Mets would have to turn to one of their depth options right away. They have some good arms on the roster, such as David Peterson and Tylor Megill, though it’s not ideal to be subtracting players from the mix before the season has even started. By bringing Bundy aboard on a minor league deal, they’ve added an starter with plenty of major league experience, without taking on any risk.
Since Bundy has essentially missed all of Spring Training, he will likely need a few weeks to get into game shape before becoming a realistic option for the club. In the meantime, he’ll likely head to the minors and start ramping up. If the Mets suffer another injury or two over the next little while, Bundy will eventually give them an extra layer of protection in the minors. For any other club still looking to add to its starting depth, some of the remaining free agent options include Chris Archer, Michael Pineda or Anibal Sanchez.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Cubs Option Adrian Sampson, Name Hayden Wesneski As Fifth Starter
The Cubs ended the competition to determine the team’s fifth starter, as manager David Ross told reporters that Hayden Wesneski would be joining the rotation. Adrian Sampson had been one of the other contenders for the job, but the right-hander was optioned to the minor leagues earlier today.
The news officially confirms what had become increasingly obvious during Spring Training, as Wesneski set himself apart with a 2.12 ERA over 17 innings of work, as well as a strong 31.43% strikeout rate and an 8.57% walk rate. By contrast, Sampson struggled to an 8.66 ERA over 17 2/3 innings, while Javier Assad pitched well (2.57 ERA) but tossed only seven innings due to his commitments with Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.
Wesneski was a sixth-round pick for the Yankees in the 2019 draft, and he came to Chicago at last year’s trade deadline as the return for Scott Effross. That trade is suddenly looking like a pretty significant steal for the Cubs, considering that Effross threw 12 2/3 innings for New York before undergoing Tommy John surgery that will sideline him for the entire 2023 season.
Meanwhile, the Cubs now have a viable starting candidate in Wesneski, continuing his relatively quick career ascension considering that he didn’t pitch at all during the canceled 2020 minor league season. The 25-year-old had solid but not eye-popping numbers (3.68 ERA over 269 minor league innings) on the farm with the Yankees and Cubs, but he looked impressive in his first taste of MLB action last year, delivering a 2.18 ERA, 25% K%, and 5.3% walk rate over 33 innings for Chicago.
Wesneski slots in behind Marcus Stroman, new signing Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, and Drew Smyly in the Cubbies’ rotation. Longtime Chicago veteran Kyle Hendricks is still recovering from a capsular tear in his shoulder, and Sampson and Assad project as further depth options in the minor leagues.
Mets To Select Tommy Hunter’s Contract
The Mets have told Tommy Hunter that he will make the team’s Opening Day roster, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link). The move will become official when the Mets select Hunter’s minor league contract prior to their Opening Day matchup with the Marlins on March 30, but a decision had to be made earlier since Hunter has an opt-out clause in his contract today.
Once Hunter appears in a game, it will mark his 16 Major League campaign and his third season with the Mets. His stint in Queens hasn’t resulted in much actual playing time, as injuries have limited Hunter to only 22 games and 30 1/3 innings in a Mets uniform. Brought back on another minors deal this winter, Hunter won himself a roster job on the strength of a spotless 0.00 ERA in eight Grapefruit League innings, with only four hits and a walk scattered across those eight frames. Hunter has also struck out nine of 30 batters faced this spring.
This kind of performance might well have earned Hunter a roster spot anyway, but the Mets’ string of bullpen injuries also created some more opportunity. Edwin Diaz‘s season-threatening knee surgery was naturally the biggest of the injuries, but Sam Coonrod and Bryce Montes de Oca have also been sidelined. Brooks Raley suffered a hamstring strain that forced him out of the World Baseball Classic, but the Mets are hopeful that Raley can still be ready for Opening Day.
Though injuries have kept him off the field in the last few years, Hunter has quietly posted very strong numbers for the last decade. Since the start of the 2013 season, Hunter has a 3.14 ERA, 45.6% grounder rate, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate over 424 1/3 innings with six different teams. Never a big strikeout pitcher, Hunter has kept batters off-balance and not hurt himself by limiting free passes. While his 22 1/3 innings last season are an imperfect sample size, Hunter did display an increased use of his cutter, throwing the pitch 46.7% of the time.
Reds Release Hunter Strickland
The Reds announced today that right-hander Hunter Strickland has been released. Strickland was one of several veterans who can opt out of their minor league deals today, and it seems the Reds have decided he won’t make the club.
Strickland, 34, had his best years with the Giants earlier in his career, but has gone into journeyman mode of late. Over the past four seasons, he’s suited up for the Mariners, Nationals, Mets, Rays, Angels, Brewers and Reds. He struggled with Cincinnati last year, posting a 4.91 ERA over 66 appearances, striking out 21.1% of batters faced, walking 11.6% and getting grounders at a 34.2% clip. However, he’s not too far removed from a 2021 season that saw him register a 2.61 ERA with better rate stats, though that might have also had some good fortune behind it. His .250 batting average on balls in play and 83.3% strand rate were both on the fortunate side of league averages, leading to a 4.19 FIP and 4.06 SIERA.
The veteran will now head to the open market and look for his next opportunity. With several teams around the league dealing with notable injuries and several more roster cuts and opt-outs to come, Strickland is sure to find interest somewhere, at least on another minor league deal. The Reds had two other veterans who had opt-outs today, none of whom will make the team. Infielder Chad Pinder was released yesterday and right-hander Chase Anderson was reassigned to minor league camp.
Anderson, though, seems like he will stick around. Manager David Bell tells Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer that Anderson will accept his minor league assignment and be part of the Triple-A rotation. Bell also confirmed what seemed likely when Anderson was demoted, that the final two rotation spots will go to Luis Cessa and Connor Overton.
Anderson could have pursued opportunities with other clubs but it’s possible that he’s in a decent spot with the Reds, as he may be the #6 starter at the moment. The front three spots are going to youngsters Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft, as those three will continue their development after encouraging seasons in 2022. With Luke Weaver set to begin the season on the injured list, the final two rotation spots will fall to Cessa and Overton, with Anderson perhaps the next man up if there’s another injury or someone struggles.
The club also has prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt on the 40-man, though neither has any major league experience yet and neither impressed in spring. Williamson posted an ERA of 11.20 and Stoudt’s was 13.50 in Cactus League action. They seem ticketed for starts in Triple-A alongside Anderson, though the veteran might be ahead of them if there’s a need for a big league starter early in the season, with those two continuing to develop.
The 35-year-old Anderson was once a solid starter with the Diamondbacks and Brewers, but has struggled in recent years. The past three seasons have each seen him post an ERA above 6.00 at the big league level. Last year, he made nine appearances with the Reds, finishing with a 6.38 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 14.6% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate.
Despite the recent struggles, Anderson’s path to a roster spot isn’t a long shot, as neither Cessa nor Overton are truly established. Cessa, 31 in April, has made 201 MLB appearances but only 29 of those have been starts, with most of those coming earlier in his career. He posted a 4.30 ERA in 10 starts last year. As for Overton, 29, he has just 15 major league games on his résumé thus far. He posted a 2.73 ERA last year but spent most of the season on the injured list due to a stress reaction in his lower back.
Angels Release Luis Barrera, Nash Walters; Chris Devenski To Remain In Organization
The Angels announced that outfielder Luis Barrera and right-hander Nash Walters have been released from their minor league contracts. Chris Devenski had the ability to opt out of his own minors deal with the Angels, but the righty will instead pass on exercising his out clause and instead report to the Angels’ Triple-A club, as Devenski was told that he wasn’t making the big league roster.
Devenski’s status as an XX(B) free agent on a minor league deal allows him automatic opt-out dates on March 25, May 1, and June 1 if he hasn’t already been added to Los Angeles’ 26-man roster. (Some players can also negotiate different opt-out dates within their minor league contracts.) While it is possible Devenski might yet choose to leave his deal with Anaheim, for now he’ll head to Triple-A in order to wait for a potential call-up, or maybe audition himself for other teams in advance of his next decision on May 1.
Known best for his days as a workhorse in the Astros bullpen, Devenski has pitched only 25 2/3 total MLB innings since the start of the 2020 season. He required surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow following the 2020 campaign, and a Tommy John surgery in June 2021 then sidelined him for almost all of the last two seasons. The righty did make it back onto the hill for 14 2/3 innings in 2022, tossing 10 2/3 frames with the Diamondbacks and four more innings with the Phillies.
Barrera has 38 Major Leagues games on his resume, all with the Athletics since the start of the 2021 season. The 27-year-old has hit .277/.337/.413 over 2481 career plate appearances in the minors, but is better known for his speed and ability to play all three outfield positions. Teams in need of outfield depth might take a look at Barrera amongst other available options as some roster shuffling takes place at the end of Spring Training.
Walters made his MLB debut in cup-of-coffee fashion in 2022, appearing in one game and tossing one-third of an inning for the Angels in the final game of the regular season. A longtime member of the Brewers organization, Walters was purchased by Anaheim at the start of September, then designated for assignment and non-tendered in November. Walters then re-signed with the Halos on a new minor league deal, but will now head back into free agency. Over 224 2/3 career innings in the minors, Walters has a 4.37 ERA and a respectable 25.76% strikeout rate, and he has to some extent corrected an extreme lack of control early in his pro career.
Phillies, Aaron Nola End Extension Negotiations Until After The Season
Last month, the Phillies and Aaron Nola‘s representatives were reportedly exchanging figures about a possible long-term contract extension, creating some feeling that a new deal might be in the works. However, it doesn’t look like the two sides will reach agreement, as Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (Twitter links) that the two sides have ended talks.
“We think the world of him, quality pitcher, quality human being, but sometimes you get to this point where you’re not able to consummate a deal that both sides feel comfortable,” Dombrowski said. “We’re very open minded to trying to sign him at the end of the season. We’re hopeful he’ll remain a Phillie for a long time.”
Joe Longo, Nola’s agent, also made a statement, telling Coffey that “we had good communication with the Phillies. We just couldn’t agree at this time. We’ll pick up the conversation again at the end of the season.”
Like most players, Nola indicated that he didn’t want negotiations to stretch beyond Opening Day, as he wanted to entirely focus on baseball once the season was underway. With that unofficial deadline still five days away, it’s possible that either Nola’s camp or the Phillies could restart contract talks with one phone call, yet the public declarations by both Dombrowski and Longo would seemingly indicate that the matter has been put on hold.
Nola signed a four-year, $45MM extension with Philadelphia in February 2019, and that deal became a five-year, $56.75MM pact last November when the Phillies exercised their $16MM club option on Nola for the 2023 season. There was no doubt that the option would be picked up, given how well Nola has pitched over his eight seasons for the reigning NL champions. The 2022 campaign saw Nola post a career-best 6.3 fWAR over 205 innings while posting a 3.25 ERA and a range of excellent secondary metrics.
Between Nola’s performance, durability, and age (he doesn’t turn 30 until June), he will be one of the top names in the 2023-24 free agent class, let alone one of the top pitchers. Shohei Ohtani is on his own level given his unique two-way status, but among regular pitchers, only Julio Urias might rival Nola for the top contract given to a hurler next winter.
While the Phillies aren’t shy about giving out big contracts, they would’ve had to pay handsomely in an extension in order to retain Nola so close to his first trip to the open market. The club still retains exclusive negotiating rights with Nola until free agency officially opens (five days after the end of the World Series), yet it isn’t very common to see an extension struck with a top-tier player within that small window between the end of the season and the opening of the free agent window, and the Phillies would likely have to pay even more of a premium to extend Nola at that even later date.
That said, a reunion between the two sides shouldn’t be ruled out, even if the Phillies do end up bidding against other suitors. The Phillies were able to re-sign J.T. Realmuto when the catcher entered the open market during the 2020-21 offseason, and spending in free agency hasn’t been an issue in general given how Philadelphia has landed the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, and Nick Castellanos to big multi-year deals. The Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in 2022 and are projected to exceed the second tier ($253MM+) of tax penalties in 2023.
With Walker just signed to bolster the rotation this winter, Philadelphia has Nola under control through 2023, Wheeler through 2024, Ranger Suarez through 2025 via arbitration, and Walker through 2026. Between this staggered list, Suarez’s relatively inexpensive price tag as an arb-eligible player, and the team’s hopes that younger arms like Bailey Falter, Andrew Painter, and Mick Abel can provide bargain production in the near future, it stands to reason that the Phillies might pursue re-signing Nola as a hedge against Wheeler’s possible departure following the 2024 campaign. Or, it is possible that by season’s end, the Phillies are confident enough in their young pitching depth to let Nola leave, and recoup a draft pick as compensation (though the placement of that pick will fall due to the Phils’ status as luxury tax payors).