Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

The Opener: Giles, Arb Updates, Player Chat

By | at

With Opening Day just 50 days away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Giles to hold workout for interested teams:

Right-hander Ken Giles is set to hold a showcase for interested teams this morning. If the workout goes well, Giles could join the likes of Michael Fulmer and Corey Knebel at the top of the pile of right-handed relief options remaining on the free agent market. Giles has pitched just eight innings since the start of the 2020 season thanks to Tommy John surgery and a tendon injury in his finger, but prior to those woes he was one of the best late-inning options in the game; in 2019, he posted a sterling 1.87 ERA, good for a 244 ERA+ and backed by a FIP of 2.27.

2. Arbitration Update

Arbitration hearings continue rolling in, with the Associated Press reporting that Rays reliever Colin Poche had his hearing yesterday. As is the case with Angels outfielder Hunter Renfroe, the result of that case is being held rather than immediately announced so as not to serve as a data point in pending cases for comparable players in the same service bracket. The AP notes that hearings are scheduled out through Feb. 17, with 17 cases yet unresolved. Some of those will likely result in multi-year deals — the Astros have had discussions with Kyle Tucker, new GM Dana Brown said this week — but many will go to trial. Among the most notable remaining names are Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez and Gio Urshela. A full list of the 33 players who exchanged figures with teams can be seen here.

3. Player Chat and MLBTR Chat today

MLBTR’s Player Chat series is set to continue today. Earlier this week, we hosted a chat with former MLB pitcher and longtime scout Tim Fortugno, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, we’re excited to welcome former starting pitcher Brandon Beachy. Beachy pitched for the Braves and Dodgers in his MLB career, which spanned from the 2010 season until the 2015 season. The best seasons of Beachy’s career were 2011-2012. Across those two seasons, he made 38 starts and threw 222 2/3 innings to solid results, posting a 3.07 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.30 FIP. Beachy’s 2012 season in particular was highlighted by a May 17th complete game shutout against a Marlins lineup that featured Giancarlo Stanton and Hanley Ramirez. Overall for his career, Beachy posted a 3.36 ERA (116 ERA+) with a 3.41 FIP across 48 starts and 275 2/3 innings. Be sure to tune in today 10am CST for Beachy’s live chat!

Meanwhile, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting his weekly chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins. Readers who missed yesterday’s chat with Steve Adams can also check out that transcript here in the meantime.

Orioles Notes: Means, Stowers, Ownership

By | at

The Orioles’ surprising second-half success came in spite of the loss of their top starter, as John Means was knocked out of action just two appearances into the year by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. That procedure occurred in late April, putting him a little more than nine months into his rehab. Means recently told reporters he’s “right on track” in that process, progressing to throwing from 140 feet off flat ground (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). He’s yet to begin throwing anything other than fastballs but indicated he’s likely to throw from a half-mound early in Spring Training.

A specific timetable for Means’ return to MLB action is unclear, as it’s obviously dependent on whether he can avoid setbacks as he further builds into a throwing program. He certainly won’t be ready for Opening Day but should factor into the mix at some point during the season. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week, Means’ eventual return will be a welcome development for a Baltimore rotation whose only present locks are Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson. The O’s have a number of quality strike-throwers to mix in at the back end but not many pitchers capable of missing bats at a high level. Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is the exception, and the young righty could get a chance to carve out a season-opening rotation role as a rookie.

While Rodriguez has yet to make his MLB debut, outfielder Kyle Stowers did reach the majors briefly last year. The 25-year-old corner outfielder appeared in 34 games, hitting .253/.306/.418 with a trio of home runs over 98 plate appearances. It was a solid first impression on the heels of an excellent .264/.357/.527 showing through 407 trips to the plate with Triple-A Norfolk. The O’s have Austin Hays and Anthony Santander to man the corner outfield on most days, although the lefty-swinging Stowers should have a path to reps at designated hitter and/or off the bench as a pinch-hitter.

“I think there’s value in being someone that can (adjust), whether it’s being a spark plug in a pinch-hit at-bat or be ready to go when your name is called,” Stowers told reporters (including Kubatko). As to whether he’s on the MLB roster and where he’s playing, the Stanford product noted he’s “not the one who makes those decisions. All I can control is how I play and how hard I play, and the effort I put toward. … Just take care of everything I can control.“

While those kinds of roster battles will be significant stories for the club over the coming weeks, much of the recent attention has been on the organization’s ownership situation. In-fighting among the Angelos family led to lawsuits between Louis, John and Georgia Angelos over the past few months. Those were all resolved yesterday, when the sides agreed to dismiss all claims against one another as part of a confidential settlement.

Dan Connolly of the Athletic explores the fallout of that agreement, pointing out a settlement might pave the way for Louis Angelos to reassume more involvement in the franchise’s operations. The organization’s ownership structure has been the subject of plenty of recent attention, particularly as they negotiate with the Maryland Stadium Authority for a new lease agreement. With their current deal at Camden Yards set to expire after the 2023 campaign, the O’s declined an option for a five-year extension in search of a longer contract last week.

Along with the recent internal squabbling among the Angelos family, the O’s are still embroiled in litigation with the Nationals regarding television rights fees related to their shared Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. In 2019, an arbitrator ruled the network (of which the O’s are majority owner) owed the Nationals around $105MM in unpaid rights fees. MASN appealed that decision, and it has remained pending at the New York State Court of Appeals in the three years since then.

Connolly writes that oral arguments on that are scheduled for mid-March and echoes previous reporting Major League Baseball continues to pressure the franchises for a resolution. The uncertain rights figure has reportedly been the main stumbling block in the Lerner family’s exploration of a sale of the Nationals over the past nine-plus months.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

By | at

Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Tejay Antone Receives PRP Injection For Flexor Strain, Will Start Season On Injured List

By | at

Reds reliever Tejay Antone is not going to be ready for Opening Day, he announced this evening on Instagram (h/t to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The right-hander received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat a flexor strain in his forearm today and will have to shut down his throwing program for the time being.

Antone didn’t provide many specifics on his recovery, though it appears he’ll be out for an extended stretch. While he cautioned the issue was a “small, little strain, nothing crazy,” he concluded by noting he’ll be ready “for the playoff push in the second half.” If he’s indeed out until near or following the All-Star Break, it’ll be a significant hit to a Cincinnati bullpen that already looked thin.

The 29-year-old Antone was arguably the Reds’ best reliever from 2020-21. He combined for a 2.48 ERA over his first 69 MLB innings, striking out 32.3% of opponents with an above-average 48% grounder rate. His 10.8% walk percentage was higher than ideal, but the combination of missed bats and ground balls pushed him into high-leverage work by his second season. Antone collected three saves and held eight more leads over 23 appearances in 2021 but began battling forearm issues that June. He twice landed on the injured list before making brief returns, but a third IL stay culminated in August Tommy John surgery.

That was the second TJS procedure of Antone’s career, as he’d also gone under the knife in 2017. He spent all of last year on the injured list rehabbing and seemed on track to be ready for the start of the upcoming season. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported last month Antone had been dealing with a forearm concern that was unrelated to his surgically repaired elbow ligament. While this flexor problem isn’t as serious as another Tommy John procedure would be, it’s a nevertheless disappointing development for a talented hurler whose past year and a half have been defined by injuries.

Alexis Díaz broke out as Cincinnati’s closer last season. He’ll be joined in high-leverage innings by Lucas Sims, who’s hoping to bounce back from an injury-wrecked 2022 campaign himself. Ground-ball specialist Reiver Sanmartin is probably the top left-hander in the group. Cincinnati will need some less heralded relievers to take steps forward as Díaz did last year. They haven’t made any MLB additions this offseason to a bullpen that ranked 28th in the league with a 4.72 ERA.

Antone has exactly three years of MLB service time. He and the Reds previously agreed to a $770K contract to avoid arbitration. He’ll continue to collect service while on the injured list and be eligible for arbitration twice more. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2025 season.

The Free Agent Market Still Has A Handful Of Interesting Platoon Bats

By | at

Free agency is slim pickings at this point, with very few potential everyday players still available. There are only 13 hitters who appeared in 100+ games last season who remain unsigned. Only ten of those names topped 400 plate appearances, and only three topped 500. Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus are the closest thing to surefire everyday players. Yuli Gurriel has been that throughout his MLB career but is headed into his age-39 season and coming off a poor 2022 showing. Given the quiet market, it seems unlikely he’ll be signed as anyone’s primary first baseman at this point.

That trio still has value to big league clubs, of course, and the free-agent market in general still has a handful of names who can be valuable part-time/bench pieces if deployed properly. Some of the following names have long been platooned in the big leagues, while others are perhaps aging their way into that more specialized type of role. Regardless, there are still some remaining names with a track record of doing damage in the proper platoon context. Let’s take a look at who’s left on the market that could still provide some offensive value in the right setting…

Versus Left-Handed Pitching

Robbie Grossman, OF

Grossman was an above-average bat in five of six seasons from 2016-21, with 2019 being the lone exception. He slipped to a .209/.310/.311 output in 477 plate appearances this past season between the Tigers and Braves, but he maintained his long track record of production against left-handed pitching.

The 2019 season — when Grossman didn’t produce much against anyone — is Grossman’s only full season since 2016 in which he wasn’t an unmitigated thorn in the side of lefties. He mashed southpaws at a .320/.436/.443 pace in 2022 and is a career .279/.377/.413 hitter against lefties. The switch-hitting Grossman has had productive stretches against righties, too, though he’s been inconsistent in that regard. He’s strictly a corner outfield/designated hitter option at this point, but he can clearly still do damage against southpaws.

Donovan Solano, INF:

Solano bounced around the infield as a utility option with the Marlins from 2012-15 and, after a brief nine-game look with the Yankees in 2016, fell off the MLB radar entirely until a 2019 resurgence in San Francisco. Solano came out of nowhere to hit .330/.360/.456 that year, and while much of that is attributable to a .409 BABIP he was never going to sustain, he’s remained an above-average hitter for three seasons now.

Much of that production has been a matter of Solano holding his own against righties while absolutely clobbering left-handed opponents. He’s posted a solid, albeit rather punchless .289/.342/.397 slash against righties since resurfacing with the Giants, but Solano has tattooed lefties at a .321/.363/.461 clip. It’s partially driven by a still-hefty .365 average on balls in play, but Solano strikes out noticeably less often and hits the ball considerably harder against lefties than he does righties. Solano has been primarily a second baseman/third baseman since returning, though he posted strong defensive marks in 215 innings at first base with the Reds last year. For the right team, he could be considered for everyday work, but he’d be an upgrade to quite a few benches around the league.

Yuli Gurriel, 1B:

Gurriel won a batting title and a Gold Glove in 2021, but the bottom dropped out on his 2022 season. He slashed just .242/.288/.360 this past season, generally mirroring his output from an ugly 2020 campaign.

Even with those dismal all-around numbers, though, Gurriel slashed a more palatable .265/.298/.441 against left-handed pitching — good for a 108 wRC+. Gurriel is a career .282/.333/.474 hitter against left-handed pitching, and as recently as 2021 he obliterated southpaws at a .326/.394/.530 pace (150 wRC+). Defensive metrics soured on Gurriel in 2022 as well, and there’s some obvious concern when a player in his late 30s declines this sharply. Still, he rarely strikes out (12.5% in ’22, 11.2% career) and has enough of a track record against lefties to think he can help a team in a part-time role. He’s been linked to the Twins, Astros and Marlins in recent weeks, though Miami has reportedly backed off on its efforts to sign him.

Versus Right-Handed Pitching

Tyler Naquin, OF

The 31-year-old Naquin split the 2022 season between the Reds and Mets, though both his role and his production declined following a trade from Cincinnati to Queens (even when weighting for the difference in park factors). The extent of the correlation (if any) between those two things can’t be accurately measured, but even with the dip in production post-trade, Naquin finished out the year with a solid .241/.300/.446 slash against righties.

Naquin is just a year removed from batting .283/.339/.514 against right-handed pitching, and he’s a career .274/.326/.468 hitter when holding the platoon advantage. Defensively, he’s best-suited for corner outfield work, although he logged 645 innings in center as recently as 2021. A team looking for an affordable lefty to plug into the outfield corners could do far worse than deploying Naquin as part of a platoon.

David Peralta, OF

Peralta logged the third-most plate appearances against righties of any remaining free agent last season (417) and was the most productive bat left on the market, by measure of wRC+ (116). He slashed .267/.329/.449 with 11 homers, 29 doubles and three triples in such situations, and he’s a career .294/.350/.486 hitter in such situations.

Peralta turned 35 in August, and his defensive grades — once universally above average — were more of a mixed bag in 2022. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at minus-5, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him with a plus-5 mark. The longtime Diamondback also saw his numbers crater following a trade to the Rays (.255/.317/.335, no homers in 180 plate appearances), which surely hasn’t helped his cause. Still, there’s little reason to think that stretch of 47 games firmly indicates that he can’t rebound, and the price to find out figures to be pretty light at this point.

Ben Gamel, OF

The 423 plate appearances Gamel logged in 2022 were the second-highest total of his career and his most since recording 550 trips to the plate with the 2017 Mariners. Gamel’s overall track record against right-handed pitching is that of a league-average hitter, although it’s skewed a bit by a pair of shaky seasons that are a few years in the rearview mirror.

In each of the past two seasons, Gamel’s 112 wRC+ against righties has indicated that he’s about 12% better than league-average when holding the platoon advantage. He’s batted .255/.351/.408 through 605 plate appearances in that time, walking at a huge 13.9% clip against a less-encouraging 24.3% strikeout rate. Gamel was a generally solid outfielder defender from 2018-20, but defensive metrics have soured on him as Statcast has increasingly panned his outfield jumps in recent years. He’s also seen his sprint speed decline (though it’s still in the 65th percentile) and his once-above-average arm strength dip to roughly league-average. Gamel was basically a replacement-level player in 2022, but if his defense bounces back at all, he can be a useful role player off the bench.

—

There are certainly more names out there to consider. Catcher Gary Sanchez, for instance, has a solid career batting line against lefties but was well below-average against them in 2022 and actually hasn’t consistently hit southpaws over the past four years now. Edwin Rios has an above-average career line against lefties but in a relatively small sample, and his strikeout rates likely give teams some pause.

The aforementioned Andrus, conversely, was great against lefties in 2022 and has a decent track record against them, but he’ll probably be signed more for his glove and still seems like someone who could land a more regular role. Ditto, to a lesser extent, with regard to Jose Iglesias.

Profar hit both lefties and righties well in 2022 and remains without a team, perhaps due to a lofty asking price early on. Wherever he signs, it seems likely he’ll be in line for more regular work in the outfield, even if it’s at a lower rate than he anticipated earlier in the winter.

Other names might be conspicuous by their absence. Right-handed sluggers Luke Voit and Miguel Sano, however, both have better career numbers against righties than lefties — marginally so in the case of Sano but by a pretty wide gap with regard to Voit. Sano hasn’t had a productive season against lefties since 2019, while Voit saw each of his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage check in shy of .300 against lefties in 2022.

Astros, Kyle Tucker Have Discussed Extension

By | at

The new Astros general manager Dana Brown recently chatted with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and was asked whether they have begun extension talks with some of their younger players such as Kyle Tucker. “Tucker, we’ve been in conversation,” Brown said. “Some of the stuff was started prior to me coming. We had some talks with Tucker, of course, because it’s coming up on the arbitration hearing.”

The fact that the club is interested in extending Tucker is hardly shocking. For one thing, it was reported back in May that the club had reached out to Tucker’s camp but didn’t get very far at that time. That they are still interested in such an arrangement makes perfect sense as Tucker has only continued to cement himself as one of the league’s best all-around players in the interim. He launched 30 home runs last year and stole 25 bases. His 9.7% walk rate and 15.6% strikeout rate were both better than league average, leading to a .257/.330/.478 batting line and 129 wRC+. His outfield glovework was ranked as above average by all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating.

All of that taken together allowed Tucker to produce 4.7 wins above replacement on the season, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That was a slight improvement over the 4.6 he posted the year before. When combined with his 1.7 fWAR from the shortened 2020 season, he’s tallied 11.1 over the past three years, placing him 16th among all position players in that time.

Of course, that excellent production means that he’s likely set himself up for some strong earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this offseason, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a raise to a $5.6MM salary for 2023. He and the club didn’t agree to terms prior to the filing deadline, with Tucker submitting a figure of $7.5MM and the team at $5MM. The 26-year-old will be eligible for two further passes through the arb system in 2024 and 2025 before he’s slated to become a free agent, just a couple of months prior to his 29th birthday.

There haven’t been many lengthy extensions recently signed by position players in the 3-4 year service bracket, though there is one recent comparable in Sean Murphy. He is a catcher and two years older than Tucker, so it’s not an apple-to-apples comparison. However, he did produce 10.0 fWAR in the three seasons prior to agreeing to a six-year, $73MM deal with Atlanta in December, within range of Tucker’s 11.1 fWAR tally in that time. Moving up to the 4-5 year service class and we find another interesting comparison in Matt Olson. He produced 9.7 fWAR in the three seasons from 2019 to 2021 before signing an eight-year, $168MM extension with Atlanta prior to the 2022 campaign. He had earned $5MM in his first arbitration season with the A’s in 2021, which Tucker could potentially do as well, depending on the results of his hearing. Olson was two years older at that time than Tucker is now, as he was going into his age-28 campaign. Given Tucker’s youth and stronger overall results, he could plausibly ask for something topping Murphy’s guarantee right now and perhaps go beyond Olson next year. The huge gaps between those two deals highlights why Houston might want a deal done sooner rather than later.

For the Astros, their recent track record is mixed when it comes to their homegrown stars. George Springer and Carlos Correa reached free agency and signed elsewhere while Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez signed lengthy contracts to stick around. Brown, of course, just came over to the club from Atlanta, a club that has famously given out more extensions recently than any other. In addition to Olson and Murphy, they’ve also locked up Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II over the past few years. Perhaps Brown can bring that playbook with him to Houston, but it’s unclear if any of the recent talks have got the two sides close to any kind of agreement.

Astros Sign Bryan Garcia To Minor League Deal

By | at

The Astros announced to reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that they have signed right-hander Bryan Garcia to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Garcia, 28 in April, joins just his second organization, as he’s spent his entire career with the Tigers up until this point. He got solid results in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 1.66 ERA over 26 relief appearances. However, his fortunes completely flipped the next year, with his ERA shooting up to 7.55 over 39 games in 2021.

2022 was a strange season for Garcia, as he started working in longer stints after previously working primarily as a single-inning reliever. In Triple-A, he made 11 starts and 28 relief appearances, logging 85 1/3 innings in that time with a 3.80 ERA. He also made four starts in the majors with a 3.54 ERA. He might have been quite fortunate to keep earned runs off the board in both cases. He struck out 19.4% of hitters in the minors and 20.2% in the majors, while walking opponents at a 9.6% clip in Triple-A and 11.9% rate in the bigs. His batting average on balls in play was .276 in the minors and .216 in the majors, while his strand rate was 78.9% in Triple-A and 83.3% in the show, with all of those numbers being on the fortunate side of average. That’s borne out by his 4.83 FIP with the Mud Hens and 5.28 mark with the Tigers.

It’s unclear if the Astros view him as a starter or a reliever, though he’ll serve as pitching depth either way. He’ll be competing with other experienced hurlers that will be in camp as non-roster invitees, such as Austin Davis and Ty Buttrey.

Extension Candidate: Pete Alonso

By | at

The Mets hammered out a multi-year deal with one of their top arbitration-eligible players two weeks ago, guaranteeing Jeff McNeil $50MM to extend their window of control by as much as three seasons. General manager Billy Eppler predictably expressed openness to more deals of that nature. Of the other players on the roster, slugger Pete Alonso stands out as the most obvious candidate.

Alonso would certainly cost more than McNeil. He’s already racked up far greater earnings via the arbitration process and he’s nearly three years younger than his infield mate. While they’re each in the same service window — between four and five years of MLB time — Alonso’s in position to cash in to a much greater extent. If discussions between the Mets and his representatives at Apex Baseball get underway, there’s one obvious recent precedent to kick off discussions: division rival Matt Olson.

Within one day of acquiring Olson from the Athletics last spring, the Braves signed him to an eight-year, $162MM guarantee. The deal also came with what looks to be an affordable club option for a ninth season, an almost universal feature in Atlanta’s pre-free agency extensions. Olson’s nine months older than Alonso; he was entering his age-28 campaign last spring, as the Met is now. They obviously play the same position. Olson was in the same 4-5 year service bucket in which Alonso now finds himself, making for a direct comparison.

How do they align as players? Olson had a down season by his standards during his first year with Atlanta. The Braves couldn’t have known that at the time of his extension, however, so any comparison between the two has to isolate Olson’s production through 2021. At that time, he carried a career .252/.348/.511 line in just under 2400 plate appearances — offense that wRC+ calculated as 32 percentage points above league average after accounting for Oakland’s cavernous ballpark. Alonso has a bit under 2300 career trips to the dish and owns a .261/.349/.535 mark, with that production measured 38 points above par. The latter has a slight edge in power production, hitting home runs in around 6.47% of his career plate appearances against Olson’s nearly even 6% rate through 2021.

The power gap probably isn’t as significant as one might expect given Alonso’s status as a two-time Home Run Derby champion and his MLB-best 53 longballs as a rookie, though. Olson makes hard contact more consistently and hits the ball harder on average than Alonso does. Alonso has been a little better at translating his hard contact into home runs, though they’re each clearly elite power threats.

Both hitters have roughly average bat-to-ball skills. Olson carried a career 23.4% strikeout rate into the 2022 season; Alonso has fanned in 22.1% of his trips to the plate. Olson has a patient approach that gives him a slight edge in walks but it’s again a small gap. There’s also very little difference in their performance the year before hypothetical extension talks. Olson hit .271/.371/.540 with 39 homers and a 16.8% strikeout rate in 2021. Alonso’s coming off a .271/.352/.518 showing with 40 longballs and an 18.7% strikeout percentage. His on-base and slugging marks are a little behind Olson’s from the previous season, though that’s largely explainable by the league drop in offense last year. As measured by wRC+, Alonso’s offensive production was 43 points above par while Olson was 47 points better than average in ’21 — again, a minimal distinction.

Given their similarities as hitters, the Olson deal works as a strong starting point for gauging the terms it might take to keep Alonso. Olson has the advantage as a defender. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who’d gotten above-average grades from public metrics throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved crediting him as +34 runs compared to an average first base defender throughout his time in Oakland. Alonso’s glove isn’t as poor as some evaluators had worried during his prospect days, though public metrics paint him as a slightly below-average first baseman. He’s playable but doesn’t add the kind of value there Olson does.

There’s a reasonable debate as to whether Olson’s superior glove negates Alonso’s slight advantage as a power bat and makes him the better overall player. Alonso has a few financial advantages that might tip the scale in his favor in extension negotiations, however.

Alonso was in a better spot with regards to his final two arbitration years. He and the Mets have already agreed to a $14.5MM salary for the upcoming season; Olson had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $12MM salary for his second-to-last arbitration year. Considering those salaries escalate year-over-year based in large part on a player’s previous salary, Alonso likely would’ve had a similar edge for their final arbitration seasons. It’s not a huge difference but Alonso would likely have earned around $5-6MM more over his final two arbitration campaigns than Olson would have.

That’s not a factor for the would-be free agent years. Olson will be paid $22MM annually for the six free agent seasons he signed away. Considering Alonso’s a comparatively valuable all-around player, that’s a reasonable starting point. However, Alonso’s camp could get an edge from the spike in spending on star talent from this offseason. The best free agents generally surpassed market expectations. Rafael Devers, meanwhile, signed an extension that pays him $31.35MM for ten free agent seasons (though deferrals knocked its actual value to around $29.15MM).

Alonso isn’t likely to get to Devers money. The Red Sox slugger is two years younger, was a season closer to free agency and has more defensive value in his ability to play third base, at least in the short term. Still, the Devers deal is illustrative of the top of the market pushing up in the past 12 months — last spring, the Red Sox were reportedly pointing to Olson money as a comparable factor in talks with Devers but eventually went way beyond that — and Alonso’s camp could reasonably look for something a bit above the Olson average annual value in talks this spring.

It’s also at least worth considering how hard a bargain the Mets might try to drive in negotiations. Owner Steve Cohen and the front office have shown more willingness than any team the past two years to meet lofty asking prices to add star talent. That’s not universal (see: Jacob deGrom) but the Mets haven’t shown much fear of spending, even in the face of an astronomical luxury tax bill. The Braves have a high payroll but not one wildly different from the rest of the league, and this Atlanta front office has shown a knack for extending players at rates many outside observers find at or below market.

There’s room to tinker on the margins, likely to give Alonso the edge, though the Olson deal should be a starting point in any negotiations. Speculatively speaking, perhaps something in the range of eight years and $180.5MM (including this season’s $14.5MM salary) could be mutually agreeable. That’d tack on $166MM in new money for Alonso’s final arbitration season and six free agent years, running through his age-35 campaign. Estimating his final arbitration year around $22MM, it’d represent a $24MM average annual value for the six would-be free agent seasons. Alonso would move the extension market past a similar player in Olson, while the Mets would be able to keep another star in Queens for the foreseeable future.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The White Sox’ Right Field Options

By | at

The White Sox have shaken up their outfield picture from last year, a fairly sensible move given their weak results during the 2022 season. The club’s outfielders collectively hit .254/.301/.393 last year for a wRC+ of 97, placing them 18th in the majors. Defensively, the results were even worse, with the club posting -22 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average on the grass, both of those numbers coming in 27th in the league, while their -28.6 Ultimate Zone Rating among outfielders was dead last. At least part of those results could attributed to both Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez missing significant time due to injuries, but it was clear that some change was needed.

The club’s first move was letting José Abreu depart, thus allowing Andrew Vaughn to come in off the grass and take over at first base. Reports emerged in October that this was the course the club was considering, and Abreu signed with the Astros the following month. Vaughn was a huge part of those terrible defensive numbers, as he personally posted a -14 DRS, -16 OAA and -10.5 UZR last year. Now that he can return to his natural position, that could allow the club to deploy a more traditional outfielder in his place, depending how the situation plays out.

The other move the club made was signing Andrew Benintendi to a five-year, $75MM deal. Defensive metrics are somewhat split on his glovework, with OAA considering him subpar while both DRS and UZR are much kinder. Despite that disagreement, it still seems fair to expect the Sox to get better defensive results this year. Vaughn will be on the infield while Jiménez, who is also graded poorly on the grass, seems to be lined up to be the club’s primary designated hitter this year. With Benintendi in left and Robert in center, the club should at least have two competent everyday players in the mix. The question left to be resolved is who will be in right field. The club also lost AJ Pollock when he turned down a player option and signed with the Mariners, in addition to non-tendering Adam Engel, who then signed with the Padres. The right field job has been left open as a battle this spring, so let’s take a look at the candidates.

Oscar Colas

“Oscar Colas is going to be given every opportunity to see if he can become our right fielder on a daily basis,” manager Pedro Grifol said in an interview a few weeks ago. The prospect has a short track record in affiliated ball and is not yet on the 40-man roster, but it seems the team wants to leave a path open for him to seize a job once he proves himself ready for it.

Now 24 years old, Colas played in Cuba when he was younger, serving as both a hitter and a pitcher. Though some liked to call him the “Cuban Ohtani,” he only logged 3 1/3 innings in Cuba when he was 19 and the comparison never seemed truly appropriate. After spending some time in Japan, Colas was eventually declared a free agent and agreed to terms with the White Sox in 2021. That deal didn’t become official until January of 2022 when a new international signing period began, delaying his debut in affiliated ball until last year. Colas now has one season in the minors under his belt and there’s no denying that it was impressive. He began in High-A before jumping to Double-A and Triple-A, getting 526 plate appearances in 117 total games. He hit 23 home runs in that time and produced a batting line of .314/.371/.524 for a wRC+ of 137.

Those results certainly suggest Colas has earned a shot in the big leagues, but there are also concerns. His work at Triple-A was only a seven-game stint as the season was winding down, and though he hit .387 in that time, he also struck out at a 36.4% rate while walking just 6.1% of the time. It’s a small sample, but plate discipline is the primary red flag on his profile. His strikeout rate wasn’t quite as drastic at the lower levels but increased as he moved up the ranks. Scouting reports from both Baseball America and FanGraphs raise concerns about his propensity for chasing.

He’s not considered a strong enough defender for center field or a burner on the basepaths, with scouts agreeing he makes more sense in right field. He could still be an above-average fielder there, especially because his arm is considered an asset. But corner outfielders are generally expected to produce more offense than center fielders, putting a bit more pressure on his bat. Though the power seems to be legit, the strikeouts could potentially be an Achilles heel. It seems the Sox are open to letting him take a job with a hot spring but he could also warrant a bit more time on the farm after not playing in 2021 and a quick run through the minors last year.

Gavin Sheets

Sheets, 27 in April, has shown some solid work at the plate in his career so far. He debuted in 2021 and launched 11 home runs in 54 games, leading to a .250/.324/.506 slash line and a 124 wRC+. He got his first extended stretch of playing time last year but couldn’t quite maintain that torrid pace. He hit 15 home runs over 410 plate appearances and hit .241/.295/.411 overall for a wRC+ of 100, or exactly league average.

The defensive side of his game hasn’t been graded well, however, as Sheets has a -10 DRS, -7 OAA and -6.0 UZR in the outfield so far. He’s only been in the majors a short time but the profile appears limited, supplying power but not much else since he doesn’t run well or get on base at an especially high rate. He seems like the frontrunner to hold down the job until Colas is deemed ready.

Eloy Jiménez

Jiménez, 26, certainly provides value with his bat. Despite missing over two months with a hamstring strain last year, he still hit 16 home runs and finished the season with a .295/.358/.500 batting line for a wRC+ of 144. But his defense has been a liability in his career, leading to tallies of -15 DRS, -17 OAA and -8.2 UZR. It seems the club will try to utilize him as a DH for the most part, though not entirely.

“I’m really looking forward to seeing Eloy in right field,” Grifol said recently. “I’m not talking about seeing him there every day, but I’m talking about maybe seeing him there a day or two a week if possible and keeping him athletic and keeping him working on the defensive side, because I know that helps on the offensive side as well.”

Regardless of who’s getting the regular right field reps, it seems Jiménez will be rotated in there a bit. That’s a fine enough plan but situations could always arise where he has to jog out there more often. Last year, for example, Bryce Harper was diagnosed with a torn UCL that kept him from taking the field but allowed him to continue hitting. That forced the Phillies to put Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos out on the grass more often than they initially planned. That’s an extreme example in the sense that Harper was such a good hitter that the Phils had little choice but to allow him to clog up their DH slot for most of the year. However, it still shows that an injury can sometimes throw off a club’s designs for its ideal alignment, and it’s possible such a scenario arises and leads to an extended stretch in the field for Jiménez.

Leury Garcia

Garcia, 32 in March, is a candidate to help out with Chicago’s unsettled second base position as well as here in right. In his many years with the club, he’s served a super utility role, playing everywhere except first base and catcher. His glovework in the outfield is considered to be around average, though he doesn’t provide much at the plate, with a career batting line of .253/.293/.350. That amounts to a wRC+ of 74, indicating he’s been 26% below league average for his career. He was well off that pace last year, getting into 97 games but hitting just .210/.233/.267 for a wRC+ of just 39. He’s likely to be bouncing around the diamond to fill in wherever he’s needed. That could include some time in right field, but if he’s getting an extended run here it likely means something has gone terribly wrong.

Victor Reyes/Jake Marisnick/Billy Hamilton/Adam Haseley

None of these outfielders are currently on the roster, but they will be in camp as non-roster invitees. In the case of Haseley, he was outrighted in November while the other three were brought aboard on minor league deals. Marisnick and Hamilton are both glove-first veterans who will be 32 years old this year. They could make their way onto the roster as a fourth outfielder at some point, but it will be difficult to earn an everyday role unless there’s a cascade of injuries to other players. Haseley, 27 in April, was once a top-100 prospect with the Phillies, but his bat seems to have stalled out once he got to the game’s upper levels. He has a .262/.323/.364 batting line in 380 MLB plate appearances for a wRC+ of 82. His Triple-A work isn’t impressive either, coming in at .241/.308/.389. His defense is well-regarded and he’s yet to reach arbitration, so he could theoretically carve out a meaningful role if he can take a step forward at the plate. Reyes, 28, is fairly similar, having hit .264/.294/.379 in his career for an 83 wRC+. He has over four years of service time but still has an option remaining.

External Addition

There are still some names available in free agency, such as Jurickson Profar, David Peralta, Tyler Naquin, Ben Gamel, Robbie Grossman and others. Convincing any of them to sign as a placeholder or a part-time player could be difficult, though an injury during Spring Training or the World Baseball Classic could quickly change the whole picture. The club isn’t close to the $233MM competitive balance tax threshold, with Roster Resource currently pegging their number at $205MM. They are, however, getting pretty close to their franchise spending record. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club ran a $193MM figure on Opening Day last year, smashing their previous record of $129MM. Roster Resource has them at $187MM right now, just shy of last year. They could seemingly afford to make an addition if they wanted, but it’s possible they simply don’t want to block Colas and the remaining free agents feel they could probably find better opportunities elsewhere.

____

Though the Sox seem capable of having a better outfield this year, the overall depth does seem to be lacking at the moment. If Colas comes into spring and looks great, then things are probably in good shape. But if he looks a little shaky and goes back to the minors, then Sheets and Jiménez are likely handling things, with both of those guys being defensive liabilities. One injury would suddenly vault Garcia or one of the non-roster guys into an everyday role. More than one injury would really create a problem.

Phillies To Sign Kyle Hart To Minor League Deal

By | at

The Phillies are in agreement with left-hander Kyle Hart on a minor league deal, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The southpaw will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Hart, 30, will join just his second organization, as he was drafted by the Red Sox and has spent his entire career with them up until this point. Working primarily as a starter in the minors, he had a solid showing in 2019, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. He made 24 starts and three relief appearances that year between those two levels, tossing 156 innings with a 3.52 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.

That season was strong enough that the Sox added him to their 40-man roster to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. In 2020, Hart made his major league debut but registered a 15.55 ERA in 11 innings. He was outrighted off the club’s roster in November of that year and has continued pitching in the minors, but not quite reaching that form he showed in 2019. In 2021, he had a 4.22 ERA in 106 2/3 Triple-A innings. Last year, he posted a 5.25 ERA in 82 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

Hart reached free agency for the first time after the 2022 campaign wrapped and has used it to find a new opportunity. The Phillies will see if a change of scenery can help Hart get back on track after a few disappointing years. The club’s rotation will consist of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker, with the final spot open for a battle between guys like Bailey Falter, Christopher Sánchez, Andrew Painter and Mick Abel. In the bullpen, the Phils will have a few lefty options in José Alvarado, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm and Andrew Vasquez. It’s unclear if the Phils view Hart as a starter or reliever exclusively, but he could perhaps provide some depth in either area. If he makes it onto the club’s roster at any point, he still has a couple of option seasons and less than one year of service time.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top