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Latest On The Red Sox’ Rotation

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The Red Sox’ rotation will likely be down several starters to begin the season, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes that each of Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and James Paxton are expected to begin the season on the injured list. Paxton had already been trending in this direction, but Whitlock and Bello now join him in missing at least the beginning of the 2023 season. Cotillo notes that Whitlock, who got a late start while recovering from hip surgery is expected to be ready sometime in mid-April. Bello, who battled forearm tightness early in camp, should follow shortly thereafter. Paxton isn’t expected to return until May at the earliest.

The Red Sox announced this week that offseason signee Corey Kluber would get the nod on Opening Day. Left-hander Chris Sale, eyeing for a rebound campaign after a dreadful run of injuries in recent seasons, is slated to start the second game of the season. Righties Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and likely Kutter Crawford should round out the quintet to begin the year.

With Whitlock and Bello both expected to return by the end of the season’s first month, though, the rotation will likely be reconfigured early in the regular season. Crawford, who struggled to a 5.47 ERA in 77 2/3 frames last season, figures to be the odd man out once either Whitlock or Bello is able to reclaim a  spot in the starting staff. In that case, Crawford would figure to serve as optionable rotation depth alongside Josh Winckowski.

Assuming everyone remains healthy by the time both Whitlock and Bello are ready to return, the Sox will be faced with a decision between Houck and Pivetta for the final rotation spot. Pivetta made a league-leading 33 starts last season and paced the team with 179 2/3 innings pitched. That impressive volume came with mediocre results, however, as the right-hander posted a slightly below-average 4.56 ERA during the 2022 campaign.

Houck, meanwhile, has been a successful pitcher both as a starter (3.22 ERA in 92 1/3 innings) and a reliever (2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings) to this point in his career. The former first-rounder has long been seen as a potential rotation piece at Fenway, but the Red Sox were noncommittal early in the offseason when asked about his role. Houck also had back surgery late last season and ended the year on the injured list after making 28 of his 32 appearances as a reliever. It’s easy to see why the Sox would be intrigued by the idea of Houck upping his workload this year and even getting some more run in the starting staff, but he’s coming off a 60-inning season that ended in back surgery; a jump to a full starter’s workload would be something of a surprise.

Of course, this needn’t be a strict either-or proposition. Situations like this tend to work themselves out, often as injuries pop up elsewhere on a pitching staff. Getting Houck some early rotation work and perhaps moving him to a multi-inning relief/sixth starter role once everyone is healthy would be a good means of managing his workload as he ramps up from last year’s 60 innings.

Even if the plan is to ride Houck as a starter as long as possible, that doesn’t mean Pivetta will be decidedly forced out of the rotation. Given that each of Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Kluber and especially Paxton have some notable injuries within the past few seasons, it’s likely the Sox will need to shuffle through quite a few starters. All six of their top options figure to spend ample time in the rotation this summer, and they’ll also have depth options like Crawford, Winckowski, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata as candidates for rotation work down in the minors.

Tigers Prospects Jackson Jobe, Dillon Dingler Facing Significant Absences

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The Tigers today announced a number of injury updates on some of the minor league players, with Evan Woodbery of MLive.com among those to relay the info (Twitter links). Per the release, right-hander Jackson Jobe has lumbar spine inflammation and will be sidelined for three-to-six months. Meanwhile, catcher Dillon Dingler received a meniscectomy on his right knee and will be in rehab for the next four weeks before starting a return to play progression.

Jobe, 20, was the club’s first round pick in 2021, getting selected third overall that year. He spent last year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, posting a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings. Based on his draft pedigree and strong professional debut, he is currently considered the club’s top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.

Jobe wasn’t going to be a factor for the Tigers here in 2023, as he still has yet to reach Double-A and only made three starts at Class-A Advanced last year. However, it’s surely not ideal for him to miss most or perhaps all of a year that would have otherwise been spent developing his skills. It’s also notable as it continues an incredibly frustrating run of poor health for the club’s top young pitchers. One year ago, the Tigers were set to head into the season with a rotation headlined by homegrown starters like Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, with Jobe headlining the next wave. Instead, Mize made just two starts last year before requiring Tommy John surgery, Skubal went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery and was recently placed on the 60-day injured list, while Manning was held back by various ailments and only made 12 starts last year.

Dingler, 24, was a second round pick of the Tigers in 2020 and has been generally considered to be one of the club’s top 10 prospects in the years since, with his defense earning especially high praise. Last year, he played 107 games at Double-A, hitting 14 home runs in that time. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but also drew walks at a 10% clip. His .238/.333/.419 batting line amounted to a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than the league average hitter.

Dingler went to the Arizona Fall League at the end of last year but was shut down after four games due to knee soreness. He’ll now have to miss the next four weeks before he can even start to ramp up towards returning to action. His prospect stock isn’t considered quite as high as Jobe’s but it’s still another blow to the club’s farm. He still hasn’t reached Triple-A and was looking up a catching corps of Eric Haase, Jake Rogers and Donny Sands. He might not have factored into the 2023 plans but he is Rule 5 eligible this coming winter and will miss some crucial time between now and then.

Since neither of these two players were likely to make an immediate jump to the big leagues this season, today’s news isn’t going to have a huge impact the near-term fortunes of the club. However, the Tigers aren’t expected to compete this season after a 66-96 campaign last year. Given that they are future-focused at the moment, these two injuries bring some more frustration to a franchise that has had much of it lately.

The Dodgers’ Rotation Options If Tony Gonsolin Misses Time

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The Dodgers were dealt some undesirable news last week when All-Star starter Tony Gonsolin rolled his left ankle during a pitcher-fielding practice session. He was diagnosed with a sprain and unable to put much weight on the leg for a few days.

Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Gonsolin has again started throwing (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). He’s progressed to long toss from 120 feet but has yet to return to the mound. With Opening Day two weeks out, it seems increasingly likely he’ll require a stint on the 15-day injured list.

If that proves the case, the Dodgers will have to add someone to the season-opening rotation behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. Los Angeles doesn’t have the luxury some clubs do of many built-in off days early in the year. They’re scheduled for games in 13 of the first 14 days and 24 of the initial 26 days of the regular season. Unless the club wants to cover some starts via bullpen games, they’ll need a fifth starter if Gonsolin isn’t available.

Likely Front Runners

Ryan Pepiot, 25, two minor league option years remaining

Pepiot seems the favorite for the job. He started seven of his first nine big league games last season, working to a 3.47 ERA over 36 1/3 innings. Pepiot struck out an above-average 26.3% of opponents but his 16.9% walk rate was untenable for a player hoping to stick in a rotation. He showed more serviceable control in the minors, walking 9.8% of batters faced with a lofty 30.9% strikeout rate and a 2.56 ERA in 91 1/3 frames for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

A former third-round pick, Pepiot has developed into one of the better pitching prospects in the sport. The Butler product has a wipeout changeup and plus spin on a fastball that averaged just under 94 MPH last season. Evaluators have expressed trepidation about his breaking ball and especially the consistency of his strike-throwing. Still, he’s an intriguing young pitcher with upper minors success who has shown a decent ability to miss bats early in his time at the big league level. He’s not a finished product but could be capable of providing the Dodgers with a few solid starts in a fill-in capacity.

Michael Grove, 26, two options remaining

A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, Grove overcame some early-career injury concerns to reach the majors last year. He started six of his first seven big league games, posting a 4.60 ERA through 29 1/3 frames. That came with a modest 18% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact. The 6’3″ righty did a solid job throwing strikes, though, limiting walks to a roughly average 7.5% clip.

Like Pepiot, Grove had a solid 2022 campaign in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. He posted a 4.07 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A frames, fanning 26.7% of batters faced against an 8.2% walk percentage. Grove held right-handed batters at the top minor league level to a .213/.266/.368 line over 263 plate appearances. Lefties, on the other hand, teed off at a .279/.344/.541 clip in 192 trips to the dish. It was a similar story at the MLB level. Righties hit .241/.293/.389 in his limited look, while left-handers managed a .275/.333/.522 slash.

Grove doesn’t throw a changeup, relying on a fastball/slider/curveball combination. Prospect evaluators have raised questions about his ability to handle left-handed hitters without a pitch that breaks away from them. That has led to concern about whether he can stick in an MLB rotation long term, though the Dodgers could match him up against right-handed heavy teams like Colorado and the Cubs in the season’s first couple weeks.

Top Prospects

Gavin Stone, 24, not yet on 40-man roster

Stone fell to the fifth round in the 2020 draft. That now looks like a coup, as the Central Arkansas product is a top 100 prospect on lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN. He’s now the second-best pitching prospect in the organization (more on that in a minute) after an utterly dominant minor league season. Across three levels, he combined for a 1.92 ERA with an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and serviceable 8.9% walk percentage through 121 2/3 frames. That culminated in six Triple-A outings, in which he allowed only six runs over 23 1/3 innings.

It now seems a matter of when, not if, Stone will make his big league debut this season. Evaluators credit the 6’1″ righty with a mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the minor leagues and suggest he could be a mid-rotation arm in the near future. He doesn’t have a ton of Triple-A experience and isn’t yet on the 40-man, so the most straightforward move would be to send him back to Oklahoma City to open the season. Given his minor league dominance, there’s at least an argument for plugging him in above Pepiot and Grove immediately, even if it’d require a 40-man roster move to do so.

Bobby Miller, 23, not yet on 40-man roster

The Dodgers’ first-round pick in that ’20 draft class, Miller has shot through the minor league ranks and now ranks among the best prospects in the sport. The Louisville product had a 4.45 ERA over 20 outings for Double-A Tulsa last season. That’s not the most impressive mark but it seems the product of an unlucky 62.5% strand rate. Miller struck out an excellent 30.5% of opponents, induced grounders at a quality 48.2% clip, and kept his walks to an 8.1% rate. He earned a late-season bump to Oklahoma City, where he posted elite strikeout and ground-ball marks over four outings.

He’s now almost universally regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect and a top 50 minor league talent overall. The righty draws unanimous praise for an upper-90s fastball, a pair of power breaking pitches, and an advanced changeup. Miller’s command is still a work in progress but there’s little question the arsenal can play against major league hitters.

Miller doesn’t figure to be an option for the season-opening rotation. Roberts told reporters last week he was being built up slowly to monitor his workload and was unlikely to pitch in a Spring Training game (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He’ll almost certainly be in the majors at some point in 2023 though.

Further Down Depth Chart

Andre Jackson, 26, one option remaining

Jackson has never started a big league game, coming out of the bullpen for all seven of his MLB appearances from 2021-22. The Utah product has worked as a starter in the minors, opening 19 of 21 outings with Oklahoma City last year. He allowed exactly five earned runs per nine innings in Triple-A. Jackson had decent enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers but walked an astronomical 17.2% of opposing hitters.

That’d put him behind Pepiot and Grove on the depth chart. Jackson is on the 40-man roster, though, seemingly giving him a leg up compared to the non-roster invitees in camp. He’s headed into what would be his final option year, so he’ll need to improve his control before long if he’s to earn an extended MLB look in Los Angeles.

Dylan Covey/Robbie Erlin

Both Covey and Erlin have some big league experience and are in camp as non-roster veterans. The 32-year-old Erlin was hit hard in 77 innings with Oklahoma City last season. Covey, 31, returned stateside after a couple solid years in Taiwan’s top league. Covey, in particular, has gotten out to a good start in camp. He’s struck out eight without issuing a walk over six innings. Still, neither seems likely to leapfrog the younger arms in the organization for a season-opening rotation look.

Nick Nastrini/Landon Knack

Nastrini and Knack are both fairly recent college draftees who reached Double-A last season. They’re each among the mid-tier prospects in a strong L.A. system and flashed bat-missing potential with Tulsa. Both pitchers could eventually get an MLB look, though neither figures to be in consideration for a job out of camp. They’re not yet on the 40-man and have yet to reach Triple-A.

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The Dodgers again have a few exciting pitching prospects, two of whom have already gotten a taste of the majors. Pepiot and Grove would accordingly be the safest choices to take the final rotation spot if Gonsolin can’t start the season but they’re not as touted as Miller and Stone. The latter two figure to take the Dodger Stadium mound at some point in 2023, the next in a long line of pitching talent to come through the system.

Mark Melancon Likely To Miss Start Of Season Due To Shoulder Strain

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March 16: Manager Torey Lovullo today told Steve Gilbert of MLB.com that Melancon subscapularis strain in his right shoulder. He is getting a PRP injection and will indeed start the year on the injured list.

March 15: The Diamondbacks expect to be without veteran reliever Mark Melancon to open the season because of a shoulder injury, general manager Mike Hazen said this evening (relayed by Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). The issue’s severity isn’t clear but apparently will send him to the injured list at the start of the year.

It’s an unfortunate beginning to the four-time All-Star’s hope for a bounceback season. Melancon had a tough opening campaign in the desert. Signed to a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason, the righty posted a 4.66 ERA through 56 innings. It was his worst run prevention mark in a decade, while his 14.2% strikeout rate was his lowest since his abbreviated rookie season in 2009. His 44.1% grounder percentage was the worst of his career. The D-Backs pulled Melancon from the closing role towards the tail end of the season.

Rough 2022 campaign aside, Melancon’s track record offered some hope he could improve his results this year. He’d allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in each of the previous four seasons, including consecutive sub-3.00 showings in 2020-21. Melancon doesn’t sport the high-octane, overpowering arsenal of most elite relievers. Yet he’d consistently been successful keeping runs off the board for over a decade on the strength of pristine control and strong ground-ball numbers.

The Diamondbacks made a handful of additions to their bullpen over the winter. Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Andrew Chafin all came aboard on low-cost free agent deals. Arizona also nabbed Cole Sulser off waivers from Miami. That group and in-house options like Kevin Ginkel and Joe Mantiply give skipper Torey Lovullo a little more flexibility in the late innings than he’s had in recent seasons.

Lovullo had already suggested he was prepared to take a closer by committee approach early in the year. Melancon, who has saved 262 MLB games in his career, could factor into that mix at some point. He’ll now first have to get healthy, with little public clarity about his overall recovery timeline.

Out Of Options 2023

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Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

  • None

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Cubs Notes: Madrigal, Wesneski, Leiter Jr.

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Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal has only played second base in his big league career thus far, but he’s not likely to see a lot of time there this year. The club’s major investment this offseason was signing shortstop Dansby Swanson, thus pushing Nico Hoerner over to second base. That nudged Madrigal into a competition for time at third base this spring, one in which he seems to have held himself well.

“He’s got to hit,” manager David Ross tells Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “He still has to perform. That goes for just about everybody. He has missed a lot of time, but he looks really good and his timing looks good. We’ll see how camp plays out, but I definitely think he’s answered questions at third base. There’s no hesitation to put him in there.”

For his part, Madrigal also feels good about how things are going. “I’m focused one day at a time,” Madrigal said. “I’m feeling really good at the plate. Defensively, I feel like it’s all coming together. My body’s in a completely different spot this year compared to last year. I’m just looking forward to what’s ahead.”

Madrigal was hitting .305/.349/.425 for the White Sox in 2021 when a significant hamstring injury ended his campaign. Nonetheless, the Cubs acquired him in the Craig Kimbrel trade at that year’s deadline. Unfortunately, injuries hampered him yet again in 2022, as he made multiple trips to the IL and hit just .249/.305/.282. As noted by Ross, Madrigal will have to hit to hold onto that third base job, but it sounds like the club is fine with him from a defensive standpoint. Should he struggle at the plate, he’ll likely be fending off challenges from players like Christopher Morel, Zach McKinstry and Miles Mastrobuoni. Patrick Wisdom could also be a factor, though he might be getting some more time in the outfield corners with Seiya Suzuki set to begin the season on the IL.

More news out of Cubs camp…

  • The Cubs will also be deciding who their fifth starter is, with Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly and Justin Steele taking the first four spots. It’s viewed by many to be a race between Hayden Wesneski and Adrian Sampson, but Mooney reports that Wesneski is pulling away right now. Sampson, 31, had a nice season for the Cubs in 2022, posting a 3.11 ERA in 104 1/3 innings. However, he’s struggled badly so far this spring, giving up eight home runs in 8 1/3 innings, leading to a 14.04 ERA. Wesneski, 25, has been much better, throwing 8 2/3 scoreless frames with 11 strikeouts. Spring stats tend not to mean too much in the grand scheme of things, but it could be enough to push Wesneski ahead in this case. He also has the higher upside of the two, given he’s younger, has six remaining years of club control and is generally considered one of the club’s top prospects.
  • Another decision the Cubs will have to make is whether or not to give right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. a roster spot. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports that Leiter has an opt-out in his contract that would allow him to return to free agency if he’s not added by March 30, which also happens to be Opening Day. The righty has a solid season for the Cubs last year, tossing 67 2/3 innings over 35 appearances with a 3.99 ERA. However, he exhausted his final option year and had reduced roster flexibility, perhaps contributing to getting outrighted off the roster in January. He elected free agency but returned to the Cubs on a minor league deal.

Zack Britton Throwing For Teams Again

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Free-agent lefty Zack Britton is hosting yet another workout for teams seeking bullpen help, as first reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets will be in attendance, he adds. They’ll be joined by around seven other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds.

It’s at least the third time that Britton has auditioned for clubs this offseason. He held a broad-reaching showcase back in January and a narrower workout for six teams almost one month ago to the day. That session — reportedly attended by the Mets, Angels, Cubs, Giants, Rangers and Dodgers — either didn’t produce the big league offer Britton is said to be seeking or didn’t produce one that he found to his liking.

The Mets’ interest in Britton will take center stage, given Edwin Diaz’s likely season-ending knee surgery and the fact that Britton, not long ago, was considered to be perhaps baseball’s best reliever — just as Diaz is now. Previously, the Mets had been focused on bullpen help that had minor league options, not wanting to limit the flexibility of their relief corps with another veteran addition. Diaz’s inevitable shift to the 60-day injured list could perhaps change that calculus.

Of course, it can’t emphasized enough that it’s been several years since Britton was in peak form. The now-35-year-old lefty had his elbow scoped in March 2021, which cost him the first two months of that season. He returned in June but quickly went down with a hamstring strain that sidelined him another few weeks. The return from that balky hamstring proved similarly short-lived, as an elbow strain again sent him to the injured list.

In Sept. 2021, Britton underwent surgery to address that second elbow issue. The hope was that, like the arthroscopic procedure in March, removing some bone spurs would alleviate the issue. Instead, surgeons determined that Britton’s ulnar collateral ligament had suffered enough damage that a Tommy John surgery was required. He missed almost all of the 2022 season but did make an improbable late-September return. However, that amounted to just three games, during which time Britton walked six of nine batters faced before going back to the injured list yet again. He averaged 92.8 mph on his fastball in that time — nowhere close to the 94.9 mph he averaged during his last healthy season in 2020 (and even further from the 96.9 mph on his sinker at its peak).

From 2014-20, Britton notched a superhuman 1.84 ERA in 367 1/3 frames. He punched out 24% of his opponents against a 9.2% walk rate in that time, and Britton’s 76.2% ground-ball rate over that period cemented him as the best ground-ball pitcher since 2002, when batted-ball data of that nature began being carefully tracked. Britton posted a laughable 80% ground-ball rate in 2016 and was at 79.1% in 2015 and 77.2% in 2019 — the three highest single-season marks ever posted by a qualified pitcher.

It stands to reason that the group of clubs watching Britton throw this time around will be different in composition. Beyond the fact that there are as many as eight teams turning up this time, each of the Angels (Matt Moore), Rangers (Will Smith) and Cubs (Michael Fulmer) have all signed relievers since that time. The Cubs were still open to adding a lefty even after signing Fulmer, so they could remain in play for Britton, but both Anaheim and Texas are less clear fits following their deals with Moore and Smith.

With just two weeks until Opening Day, it’s unlikely that Britton could sign with a team and be ready to pitch by the time the season gets underway. The extent to which he’s built up isn’t known, but given that this is his third workout for teams since January, he’s clearly been on a throwing program for some time now. Even if he’s not ready come March 30, it’s feasible that he could join a big league bullpen at some point in April, health permitting.

Sergio Romo Signs Non-Roster Deal With Giants For Likely Final Appearance

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Veteran reliever Sergio Romo has signed with the Giants on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to Spring Training, according to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. According to Baggarly, the plan is for Romo to pitch in the team’s Bay Bridge exhibition against the A’s at Oracle Park towards the end of Spring Training as a farewell tour for Romo, who pitched in nine seasons for the Giants and won the World Series with the club in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Though he didn’t specifically use the word “retire,” the right-hander spoke very much like someone who expects this to be a ceremonial final stop.

“I’m not coming here to make a team,” Romo tells Baggarly. “I can’t make this team right now. Mainly I’m not trying to. I like where I am in life, seeing my kids as often as I can.”

Romo’s career began in San Francisco in 2008, his age-25 season. He impressed in his debut campaign, posting a 2.12 ERA in 34 innings of work. After a difficult 2009 season where Romo’s ERA was nearly two runs higher than his FIP, he returned to form in a 2010 season that would kick off a four-year stretch of utter dominance. During that time, he posted a sterling 2.03 ERA (178 ERA+) in 225 2/3 innings while striking out 261. That four-year stretch saw Romo collect two World Series rings (one of which he earned by striking out Miguel Cabrera to end the 2012 World Series) and his sole career All-Star appearance.

The 2014 season was something of a step back for Romo, however, even as his club won its third World Series in five years. Romo posted his first below average season of his career by ERA+. His 3.72 ERA was 7% worse than league average by that metric, and unlike his difficult 2009 season, his FIP wasn’t up to his previous standards either, standing at 3.94. Fortunately, Romo would return to form as an above-average reliever for his last two seasons in a Giants uniform, posting a 2.87 ERA (137 ERA+) in 88 innings of work, with an even stronger 2.57 FIP.

Ultimately, Romo was a phenomenal reliever during his tenure with San Francisco, pitching to a 2.58 ERA (146 ERA+) in 515 games while striking out 498 and collecting 87 saves. He also pitched well in the postseason, posting a 3.06 ERA in his 23 1/3 innings of work for the Giants in the postseason, including six scoreless appearances in World Series games.

In the six years following his departure from the Giants organization, Romo would pitch for seven different organizations: the Dodgers, Rays, Marlins, Twins, A’s, and Blue Jays. Despite those years accounting for his mid-to-late thirties, Romo was still a league average reliever during that time, with his 4.20 ERA over those 283 innings translating to an ERA+ of exactly 100.

In the event that this marks the end of his career, Romo, who celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this month, will have appeared in 821 regular season games while finishing 301 over his decade and a half tenure in the major leagues, with a 3.21 career ERA. He also racked up 137 saves and 204 holds along the way.

Cade Cavalli To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo announced today in a press release that right-hander Cade Cavalli has a grade 3 UCL sprain and will require Tommy John surgery, meaning Cavalli will miss the entire 2023 season.

Cavalli, 24, figured to be a member of the Nationals starting rotation this year after making his big league debut in a single start last August before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation. While he struggled mightily in that start (seven earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings), Cavalli was among not only Washington’s top prospects, but among the best prospects in the game, with most services considering him a top 60 prospect in the sport. Instead of joining fellow youngsters Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore as they make their cases as rotation arms of the future for the rebuilding Nationals, Cavalli will spend the entire 2023 season rehabbing and likely not return to the mound until sometime during the 2024 season.

Cavalli rocketed through the minor leagues in his first professional season in 2021, dominating in High-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA for 40 2/3 innings before moving up to Double-A, where he continued to excel with a 2.79 ERA in 58 innings before hitting a wall following a promotion to Triple-A. At the Triple-A level in 2022, Cavalli was torched to the tune of a 7.30 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. Though a .397 BABIP indicated some bad luck, his 4.54 FIP still indicating pronounced struggles relative to his dominance of lower levels of the minors.

In 2022, Cavalli returned to Triple-A and looked more like himself, hurling 97 innings with a 3.71 ERA and 3.25 FIP. Those numbers came with a 25.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate, and just three home runs allowed. Cavalli grew more impressive as the season wore on, with a sterling 1.47 ERA across seven minor league starts in July and August ahead of his big league call-up at the end of the month.

With Cavalli shelved for 2023, the Nationals seem likely to rely on either non-roster invitee Chad Kuhl to round out their Opening Day rotation. Kuhl, 30, has been a below average starter for his career, posting a 4.74 ERA (91 ERA+) in 576 2/3 innings of work with the Pirates and Rockies. That being said, he provides a steady veteran presence at the back of a rotation that’s rather young outside of Patrick Corbin. If the Nationals wish to have other arms still in camp compete with Kuhl for the fifth rotation spot, there are a couple of options remaining. Wily Peralta could be stretched out in the final weeks of Spring Training, as he has ample starting experience despite being used in short relief this spring, and Paolo Espino made 19 starts for the Nationals last year, pitching to a 4.84 ERA in 113 1/3 innings.

Should Kuhl begin the year in the rotation, that leaves youngster Joan Adon, who was recently cut from big league camp by the Nationals, as the likely top depth option. Adon made 14 starts for the Nationals last year, though he pitched to a disastrous 7.10 ERA (55 ERA+) in his 64 2/3 innings of work. Another option would be right-hander Cory Abbott, who was cut along with Adon but pitched 48 innings for the Nationals last year in a swing role that saw him start nine games.

Manager Davey Martinez has indicated he’s comfortable with the club’s existing rotation depth, even without Cavalli. That said, in the event the Nationals wish to look for additional rotation depth following Cavalli’s injury, the pickings are fairly slim on the free agent market at this point, with the likes of Chris Archer, Michael Pineda, and former National Anibal Sanchez among the remaining options.

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