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Where Will Corbin Burnes End Up?

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With Blake Snell and Max Fried off the board, Corbin Burnes stands alone at the top of the pitching market. There was some thought that the former Cy Young winner might sign within a day or two of Fried agreeing to an eight-year term at the Winter Meetings. That hasn’t happened, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if Burnes signs before league activity goes quiet with the holidays next week.

Thus far, the starting pitching class has outperformed expectations. That’s most true of Fried, whom few would’ve foreseen getting eight years or handily beating $200MM at the start of the offseason. With Fried securing $218MM, how much should one project upwards on Burnes? Every free agent projection would’ve had Burnes above Fried when the offseason got underway. Fried money feels like a floor for Burnes, whom MLBTR predicted for seven years and $200MM just six weeks ago.

That said, the Yankees and Mets were two of the most obvious on-paper fits at the start of the offseason. The Yankees can safely be ruled out after the Fried deal. The Mets are still in the market for starting pitching and have the payroll room to lurk as a threat on Burnes even after landing Juan Soto. Yet it seems the Mets’ focus for starting pitching has been on the middle tiers. They added Frankie Montas and converted Clay Holmes to the rotation, preferring more affordable upside plays than a quick strike for any of free agency’s top three arms. They’re reportedly still interested in re-signing Sean Manaea, which would very likely close the door on a Burnes acquisition.

Recent rumors have most prominently connected Burnes to a few teams: the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and (to a lesser extent) the Orioles. Boston is still engaged in the rotation market after landing Garrett Crochet last week. Trading for Crochet leaves them with ample payroll space — the former White Sox staff ace is projected for a meager $2.9MM arbitration salary — but could indicate that the Sox weren’t keen on the climbing cost for free agent starting pitching.

The Giants would benefit greatly from an ace they could plug alongside Logan Webb in the rotation to replace Snell’s production. Yet San Francisco has already made a pair of big investments ($151MM on the Matt Chapman extension, $182MM for Willy Adames) within the past few months. Does ownership have interest in a deal that should easily exceed those already significant contracts?

Depending on how one feels about the Andrés Giménez trade, it’s debatable whether the Blue Jays have made a splash acquisition this offseason. They were heavily involved on Soto and Fried but watched both players head elsewhere. Their front office could be most motivated to land a marquee free agent, but they’re also faced with some payroll questions. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote last week that the Jays landing Burnes “doesn’t seem especially likely,” suggesting the organization could prefer to focus on a bat as its biggest addition while looking for a cheaper rebound target on the rotation front.

Maybe that opens the opportunity for the incumbent Orioles to make a push. GM Mike Elias has said that the ownership change has allowed the O’s front office to explore the top of the rotation market. (They reportedly were involved on Snell, in particular.) Still, it’s fair to take a “believe it when I see it” approach for Baltimore. The O’s have brought up spending since David Rubenstein purchased the franchise in April. They took on Zach Eflin’s $18MM salary in a deadline trade with the Rays and signed Tyler O’Neill for three years and $49.5MM last week. Yet neither investment is close to what it’d take to retain Burnes.

How will the Burnes situation play out? Will there be a late push by a mystery team to land him, and how much will it take? Is he soon to be the latest beneficiary of a bullish rotation market, or is the number of teams willing to make a $200MM+ investment drying up?

 

 

Guardians Re-Sign Dom Nuñez To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians announced they have re-signed catcher Dom Nuñez to a minor league deal. The ALIGND Sports Agency also receives an invite to big league spring training with the Guards, just as he did last offseason.

Nuñez, 30 in January, spent the 2024 season with Triple-A Columbus. He got into 68 games at that level, stepping to the plate 263 times. He struck out in 30% of those trips, certainly a high number, but also drew walks at a hefty 16% clip. That resulted in a .202/.330/.339 batting line and 81 wRC+.

The Guards never needed to call Nuñez up to the majors, using Bo Naylor, Austin Hedges and David Fry to handle the big league catching duties. Fry didn’t really catch in the second half due to elbow problems and that will carry over into next year. He had a hybrid/internal brace and tendon reconstruction surgery in November, which is expected to have a 12-month recovery timetable. He will be able to serve as the designated hitter at some point next year but won’t be part of the catching plans.

That effectively leaves Naylor and Hedges as the two backstops on Cleveland’s roster, so the odds of needing to use a depth option will perhaps be higher next year, unless they add someone else to the roster later in the winter.

Nuñez didn’t make it to the majors in 2024 but does have big league experience, getting 347 plate appearances with the Rockies from 2019 to 2022. He was punched out 34% of the time but also earned free passes at a 12.4% clip. Unlike his 2024 season in Triple-A, the walks weren’t enough to bolster his overall numbers to respectable levels, so he currently has a career batting line of .180/.280/.373 in the majors for a 58 wRC+. His framing received strong grades from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast during his brief major league work in Colorado.

It’s not an overwhelming profile, but for a non-roster catcher, he at least has some positive attributes with the ability to take a walk and frame a pitch. If the Guards bring him up to the majors at any point next year, he hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration and still has an option year, meaning he’ll be cheap and provide roster flexibility.

D-backs Had Interest In Devin Williams Prior To Yankees Trade

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The Diamondbacks are known to be on the lookout for high-leverage options in the bullpen — general manager Mike Hazen has said as much on record — and they spoke to the Brewers about a potential deal for Devin Williams before Milwaukee traded him to the Yankees, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 reports.

On the one hand, it’s entirely unsurprising that a team seeking a leverage arm would throw its hat into the ring with regard to Williams. On the other, it’s at least tangentially notable, given the number of similarly priced late-inning arms on the market. If the Snakes were trying to engage the Brewers on Williams, it stands to reason that Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, Rays closer Pete Fairbanks and perhaps Houston’s Ryan Pressly are all of varying levels of interest. (At $14MM, Pressly costs significantly more than the other listed options, it should be noted.)

The bullpen market, unlike in many recent offseasons, has been slow to develop this winter. That could be in part due to the presence of names like Williams, Helsley, Fairbanks and Pressly (among others) all potentially being available. To this point, the only signings of note have been Aroldis Chapman (one year, $10.75MM to the Red Sox), Blake Treinen (two years, $22MM back to the Dodgers), Yimi Garcia (two years, $15MM back to the Blue Jays) and Jordan Romano (one year, $8.5MM to the Phillies). None of the market’s top relievers have come off the board, save for righty Clay Holmes, who signed a three-year deal to convert to a starting role with the Mets.

After last week’s Winter Meetings drew to a close, D-backs general manager Mike Hazen told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that both free agent and trade scenarios are still in play. Arizona did not complete any deals at last week’s event, but Hazen expressed confidence that the groundwork for future transactions was laid.

“There’s free-agent situations and trade situations that are both out there for all the areas that we’re looking at,” said Hazen, who is also looking for help at first base. “Trying to find what combinations go together in different ways is part of what we’re discussing right now.”

The top names still on the free agent market include Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez. All figure to command multi-year deals, with Scott in particular standing a chance at landing four years. That type of contract length could be an issue for the D-backs. Under Hazen, they’ve never signed a free agent reliever for more than two years and never gone higher than a $7MM annual value (as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). The market has plenty of intriguing one-year options as well, though any of David Robertson, Kirby Yates or Kenley Jansen would require pushing well past that $7MM highwater mark.

Brewers Grant Release To Jon Duplantier To Pursue NPB Opportunity

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The Brewers have granted right-hander Jon Duplantier his release so that he can pursue an opportunity with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

Duplantier, 30, inked a minor league deal with Milwaukee back in November and had been slated to compete for a job in spring training. It would seem that the opportunity overseas presented itself between the completion of that deal and today’s news, and the Brewers opted not to stand in the way of Duplantier’s guaranteed payday in NPB.

A former third-round pick and consensus top-100 prospect, Duplantier has only pitched in parts of two big league seasons: 2019 and 2021. Both came with the D-backs, who originally selected him in the 2016 draft. Duplantier held his own through 36 2/3 innings as a rookie in ’19 but was bombarded for 19 runs in only 13 innings in ’21. He’s posted a 6.70 ERA in 49 2/3 innings, striking out 19.7% of opponents against an 11.2% walk rate.

That was quite some time ago now. More recently, Duplantier dominated for the independent American Association’s Lake Country DockHounds in 2024, posting 18 scoreless frames with a 30-to-6 K/BB ratio. He parlayed that into Triple-A looks with the Dodgers and Mets, pitching to a combined 4.20 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate and grisly 16.1% walk rate in 65 2/3 innings of minor league work. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Duplantier has a 4.85 ERA with similar strikeout and walk rates to the ones he notched in 2024.

Dodgers To Sign Matt Sauer To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers and right-hander Matt Sauer have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The Paragon Sports International client also receives an invite to major league spring training.

Sauer, 26 in January, got to make his major league debut in 2024. The Royals used the second pick of the Rule 5 draft to grab him from the Yankees a year ago. He held a roster spot for a while but allowed 14 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings, leading to a 7.71 earned run average. He gave out 11 walks while only recording nine strikeouts. The Royals returned him to the Yankees before the end of May.

The Yanks then sent him to Triple-A, a level he had never pitched at before, but he struggled there as well. He allowed 15 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings, so the Yanks sent him down to Double-A. He finished the season there on a high note, throwing 24 innings over 17 relief appearances with a 2.63 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 3.2% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. He was able to elect free agency at the end of the season.

Prior to 2024, Sauer had primarily been a starter. In 2023, he tossed 74 innings over 17 minor league appearances with a 3.41 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate. The Royals thought perhaps that moving him to the bullpen could help unlock something, which didn’t work out initially, though Sauer’s second half in 2024 was encouraging.

Sauer is unlikely to crack the Opening Day roster for the Dodgers, given his fairly limited experience in Triple-A and in the majors. But injuries are inevitable and the club will surely have to dip into its depth at some point over a long season. If Sauer can carry over his strong finish from 2024, he could earn his way back to the majors. If he does so, he has a full slate of options and minimal service time.

Cubs Interested In Jesus Luzardo

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Dec. 16: Bruce Levine of 670 The Score said in an appearance on the Mully & Haugh show this morning that the Cubs and Marlins have been working on a potential Luzardo deal for some time now (audio link, Luzardo talk at 7:37am mark). Levine adds that a trade for Luzardo is something the Cubs “would really like to get done … in the next few days.”

That, of course, doesn’t necessarily indicate that a trade is close at the moment, but it’s nevertheless notable that the two parties are in ongoing discussions and that the Cubs feel strongly about trying to push something across the finish line.

Dec. 14: The Cubs already added Matthew Boyd to their rotation this winter but remain interested in adding another prominent name (if not someone at the top of the free agent market) to a starter group that already includes Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon as the top three.  Such trade and free agent targets as Luis Castillo and Walker Buehler have been linked to Chicago already, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs have also shown interest in Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo.

Reports surfaced during the Winter Meetings about some teams checking in on Luzardo’s services, as it could be that teams were investigating a buy-low possibility.  Luzardo has been mentioned as a potential trade candidate even before the Marlins entered their latest teardown, and had he been healthy in 2024, it is quite possible he would’ve already been shipped off to a different team prior to the last trade deadline.  Unfortunately for Luzardo and the Marlins, he was limited to 12 starts and 66 2/3 innings due to elbow problems and repeated back problems, including as a stress reaction in his lower back.

Injuries have essentially been the story of Luzardo’s career over his six Major League seasons with the A’s and Marlins.  He has 512 innings pitched across parts of those six seasons, with 178 2/3 of those frames coming in 2023.  Luzardo’s career 4.29 ERA includes a lot of peaks and valleys, with struggles in 2021 and 2024 undermining his otherwise above-average numbers.

The inconsistency resulted in lowering Luzardo’s price tag as he entered his arbitration years, and MLBTR projects him to earn $6MM this winter in his second of three arb-eligible seasons.  If he can replicate his 2023 form, his 2025-26 salaries will be a significant bargain for the Marlins or whatever team Luzardo is pitching for, and he is only entering his age-27 season.

The upside here is obvious, except the obvious concern for any interested teams is that they don’t know what version of Luzardo will show up in 2025.  This could make it hard for Miami to land on an acceptable trade package with the Cubs or any other team, simply because the Marlins naturally want to get as much as they can in return for one of their top trade chips.  Waiting until the deadline might be the wiser tack for Peter Bendix’s front office, as while Luzardo runs the risk of getting hurt again, a healthy and effective first half would restore his trade value.

670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports that Miami is looking for a “young controllable bat back” in a Luzardo deal, and suggests that the Cubs would have to give up a top prospect like Owen Caissie or James Triantos.  Considering those two are both within the top 55 of MLB Pipeline’s rankings of the top minor leaguers in all of baseball, it would be bold on Chicago’s part to move Caissie or Triantos for an injury-prone pitcher coming off a 5.00 ERA season.

Then again, the Marlins scored a nice trade package for another oft-injured, inconsistent pitcher at the last deadline when they got Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers from the Orioles for Trevor Rogers.  While the deal raised eyebrows at the time, it underscored the value that teams put on controllable pitching.  Of course, the fact that Rogers heavily struggled after the trade to Baltimore also highlights the risk involved in such trades.  The Cubs have already shown their aggression this winter by trading for Kyle Tucker, and might be willing to dip into their deep farm system again in order to make a potentially huge rotation upgrade.  Assuming that the likes of Caissie or Triandos are even on the table in potential trades, Chicago might prefer to opt to move those kinds of prospects only for a more reliable pitcher.

Twins, Darren McCaughan Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins and righty Darren McCaughan agreed to a minor league contract earlier this month, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He’ll presumably head to big league camp as a non-roster invitee this coming spring.

McCaughan, 28, has spent the vast majority of his career with the Mariners, who selected him in the 12th round of the 2017 draft. He made his big league debut with the 2021 M’s and also pitched briefly for Seattle in 2023. The Mariners traded him to the Marlins for cash back in February, and McCaughan pitched a career-high 42 big league innings between Miami and Cleveland this past season.

In 56 major league innings, McCaughan has been hit hard. He carries a career 6.43 ERA with just a 15.3% strikeout rate. He’s done a fine job limiting walks (8.4%) and has avoided hard contact on a rate basis, but the hard contact he does allow is often of the maximum-damage variety. He’s yielded an average of 2.09 homers per nine innings in the big leagues.

Homers have been an issue for McCaughan throughout his pro career, as one might expect from a soft-tossing righty who averages about 90 mph on his fastball. He’s displayed decent strikeout and walk rates in the upper minors (21.7 K%, 6.4 BB%), but McCaughan has been tagged for 1.60 homers per nine frames even in Triple-A. He posted a 4.73 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in 85 2/3 Triple-A frames last year.

What McCaughan can bring is some stability and durability to the Twins’ Triple-A staff. He’s pitched at least 127 innings in all of his pro seasons (and even in his 2017 draft year, if combining his NCAA and minor league innings). McCaughan has somewhat incredibly never gone on the injured list in the minors or in the big leagues.

The Twins have enough starters that McCaughan isn’t likely to crack the roster this spring unless it’s in a long-relief capacity. Minnesota’s rotation includes Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson, although Paddack was widely regarded as a trade candidate even before the extremely player-friendly market for starting pitchers this winter made his $7.5MM salary look all the more affordable. David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Louie Varland, Marco Raya and Travis Adams are on the Twins’ 40-man already, giving them further options ahead of McCaughan.

The Opener: Bellinger, Astros, A’s

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As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. What will the Cubs do with Bellinger?

The biggest news of the weekend was the Cubs and Astros completing a blockbuster deal that sent outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago. While the deal added a bona fide star bat to the lineup on the north side, the trade also stands to further complicate the club’s outfield logjam. While it’s at least theoretically possible that the Cubs could push Michael Busch to third base and start Bellinger at first, Busch has not shown himself to be capable of handling the hot corner and the Cubs have top prospect Matt Shaw seemingly poised to take over the position as soon as Opening Day 2025.

What’s more, Chicago was reportedly “determined” to move either Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki even before adding Tucker to the mix. Now that Tucker is in the fold, it’s nearly impossible to imagine the club not dealing Bellinger (or, at least, another hitter) before Opening Day. The Yankees have been the team by far most frequently connected to Bellinger, but it appears the two sides could be in a standoff regarding the financial terms of a trade.

2. What’s next for the Astros?

On the other side of the trade, the Astros landed a haul of talent in exchange for Tucker. Isaac Paredes seems poised to take over for Alex Bregman at third base should Bregman sign elsewhere in free agency, while Hayden Wesneski bolsters the club’s rotation depth and Cam Smith immediately became the Astros’ consensus top prospect. Questions still remain regarding the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason even aside from the possibility of a Framber Valdez trade. They’ll need to add to the outfield after losing Tucker, and finding help at first base will be necessary as well. If Bregman were to return to Houston or if the Astros were to acquire Nolan Arenado, Paredes could slide over to first. Barring that, it’s possible the club could pursue a hitter such as Christian Walker, in whom they’ve previously shown interest.

3. A’s continue making moves:

The nomadic Athletics have continued to make moves in the aftermath of their departure from Oakland, following up their signing of right-hander Luis Severino with a trade for lefty Jeffrey Springs this weekend. The club’s recent moves have added a hefty amount of payroll to the A’s ledger, though the club figures to add even more talent to the roster (and money to the books) as they look to avoid a potential grievance from the players’ union regarding their use (or lack thereof) of revenue sharing dollars.

A’s GM David Forst indicated that while an additional rotation arm to pair with Severino and Springs could be in the cards, the club is currently hoping to add a third baseman. While it would be a shock to see a player like Bregman decide to spend the next few years in West Sacramento, there are a number of lower-level options like Jorge Polanco or Yoan Moncada who could find the promise of everyday playing time with the A’s attractive. A trade for Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm would also add an established bat and bump the payroll a bit further north, and the acquisitions of Severino and Springs would make it easier for the A’s to deal some optionable rotation depth.

Braves Sign Conner Capel To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have signed outfielder Conner Capel to a minor league deal, according to the transaction tracker on Capel’s MLB.com profile page. The deal presumably includes an invite to MLB Spring Training in 2025.

A fifth-round pick by Cleveland in the 2016 draft, Capel was traded to the Cardinals as part of the Oscar Mercado trade back in 2018. Capel spent the next few years climbing the minor league ladder but eventually made his big league debut with the Cardinals back in 2022 during his age-25 campaign. He appeared in just nine games for St. Louis before being designated for assignment in September of that year, but the then-Oakland A’s plucked him off waivers and added him to the roster down the stretch. While Capel struggled badly with the Cardinals to the tune of a .176/.211/.353 batting line, he found another gear in Oakland and slashed .371/.425/.600 in his final 40 plate appearances of the season.

Capel’s strong showing was enough to convince the A’s to put him on their Opening Day roster in 2023. He was a regular fixture in the club’s corner outfield mix early in the season but put up more pedestrian numbers than he had in his torrid September stretch the previous year, hitting just .260/.372/.329. Those on-base skills were enough to keep his overall slash line above league average, but the lack of power led the A’s to option him to Triple-A. After being sent back down to the minor leagues, Capel struggled with the club’s Las Vegas affiliate and hit just .252/.346/.402 in the Pacific Coast League’s inflated offensive environment. That led the A’s to outright Capel off the 40-man roster, allowing him to elect free agency following the 2023 campaign.

Eventually, Capel caught on with the Reds in free agency via a minor league pact. At the time, it seemed somewhat unlikely that he would impact the big league club in 2024 given the crowded positional mix in Cincinnati. Things changed rapidly for the Reds after that, however. Noelvi Marte was suspended for the first half of 2024 due to a failed PED test, and injuries to TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand opened up plenty of playing time in Cincinnati. That rush of injuries allowed Capel to crack the big league roster in May, though he appeared in just five games with the Reds before being designated for assignment. After going two-for-eight with a stolen base and a run scored in Cincinnati, Capel returned to Triple-A Louisville where he slashed .218/.343/.432 in 74 games before returning to free agency earlier this winter.

Now that he’s latched on with the Braves, Capel figures to provide the club non-roster outfield depth from the left side. He’ll join righty-hitting Bryan De La Cruz in that role as Atlanta looks to shore up its outfield depth. With Ronald Acuna Jr. not expected to be ready for Opening Day after suffering a torn ACL early last year, the club has little certainty in the outfield beyond Michael Harris II in center field and Jarred Kelenic as a potential option for a corner spot. The Braves figure to add at least one outfielder who can offer more certainty than either De La Cruz or Capel, but the pair could still vie for a bench role with the club this Spring or step in if additional injuries further complicate the club’s outfield plans.

Rays Sign Jake Brentz To Minor League Deal

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The Rays have signed left-hander Jake Brentz to a minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker on his MLB.com player profile page. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training.

Brentz, 30, was an 11th-round pick by the Blue Jays back in 2013. He was subsequently traded to the Mariners and Pirates early in his minor league career before being released by Pittsburgh in 2019 after struggling at the Triple-A level. The Royals took a chance on the southpaw and signed him to a minor league deal, though he only got 5 1/3 innings of work in for the club at Double-A before the end of the season arrived. His first full season as a Royal was further delayed by the cancelled minor league season in 2020, but the remained firmly in the Royals’ orbit as a player pitching at their alternate site during the 60-game MLB season.

He found enough success between his time at the alternate site and the subsequent Spring Training that he earned a spot in the Royals’ Opening Day bullpen despite not having thrown a pitch at Triple-A as a member of the organization. That didn’t stop Brentz from making a strong first impression in the majors, however, as he pitched to a solid 3.66 ERA in 64 innings of work across 72 games as the Royals’ top left relief option. The lefty’s 13.3% walk rate held him back from becoming a truly elite relief option, but the combination of a 27.3% strikeout rate, a 49% groundball rate, and a 97mph heater from the left side all made Brentz, then 26, an extremely intriguing bullpen option who figured to be a fixture of the Royals relief corps for years to come.

Unfortunately, that didn’t come to pass. Instead, Brentz managed just 5 1/3 brutal innings in 2022 where he surrendered 15 runs (14 earned) while walking ten and striking out just nine. Given that disastrous performance, it was hardly a shock when Brentz eventually required UCL reconstruction surgery later in the season. Brentz’s predicament led the Royals to non-tender him in November, but they eventually re-signed him to a two-year deal big league deal that guaranteed him $1.9MM. Unfortunately, Brentz saw his 2023 wiped out by a combination of rehabbing from the previous year’s elbow surgery and a subsequent lat strain.

Brentz was slowed further in his return this year by a hamstring strain in March and looked extremely rusty when he finally made it back to the mound. In 30 innings of work between Double- and Triple-A this year, Brentz posted a brutal 11.40 ERA in 30 innings. He struck out just 18% of opponents while walking an eye-popping 29% and hitting another 7.9% of opponents with pitches. That complete loss of control made it no surprise when the Royals opted to designate Brentz for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot, and he eventually elected free agency following the season in search of opportunities elsewhere.

He’s now found one with the Rays, who are widely considered to be among the very best organizations in baseball for pitcher development. The fit between the two sides is somewhat obvious, as Brentz will have the opportunity to get his career back on track in a development-focused organization while the Rays will have the opportunity to help a once-excellent lefty with obvious potential what made him such an exciting rookie for the Royals back in 2021.

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