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Breslow: Red Sox Still Pursuing Starters, Right-Handed Bats

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The Red Sox came up short in free agent pursuits of Juan Soto and Max Fried, but they made their first major strike of the offseason when they pried Garrett Crochet from the White Sox in exchange for a package of four prospects headlined by catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery — their top picks in each of the past two drafts. Boston now controls Crochet through the 2026 season, making him a multi-year contributor alongside Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and perhaps Lucas Giolito — depending on his 2026 option. The Sox, however, don’t plan to stop there. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that he’s still in the market for more rotation help (audio link).

“Teams that win in the postseason, they pitch,” said Breslow. “The ability to build out both quality and depth in our rotation is something that’s going to serve us well over the season. I think we saw what happened last year, when later in the season, our bullpen got tired and we had a couple unfortunate injuries with our rotation. We didn’t quite have the depth built up to step in and replace them. So, that’s a focus of ours. We’ll continue to be aggressive in pursuing starting pitching, but we’ll also start to shift our focus to continuing to address the bullpen.”

Breslow’s comments align with recent reporting on the Sox’ offseason efforts. In the week since landing Crochet, they’ve been connected to trade candidate Luis Castillo and to free agents John Means and Jack Flaherty. They were previously reported to be readying an offer to Corbin Burnes. Means, coming off early June UCL surgery, would be a pure depth addition with an eye toward the late stages of the 2025 season. Burnes, Flaherty or Castillo, clearly, would represent a potential major upgrade to a rotation already including Crochet, Giolito, Houck, Bello and Crawford.

Giolito is recovering from his own UCL procedure and might not be ready for Opening Day. Even if the Sox get a relatively healthy season out of him, there’s reason to think they could use another starter. Injuries on the starting staff are practically inevitable, first and foremost. Beyond that, Giolito’s workload will probably be managed in his first post-surgery season. Crochet’s 2024 season was his first full, healthy season as a starter. Another established arm would allow Boston to ease Giolito into the mix and provide some extra insurance should one of the other starters get hurt.

Addressing the pitching staff has been just one of multiple stated goals throughout the winter. The focus on Soto and the rotation clearly took priority, but Breslow is still mindful of needs within the lineup. “Also, we’ll take a look at trying to balance out the lineup a little bit and potentially do that via the addition of a right-handed bat,” he added during his radio hit.

Certainly, the pursuit of balancing the lineup and upgrading the pitching staff could be intertwined. Boston has explored trade possibilities involving both Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu this offseason. Moving a left-handed bat could clear a path for the Sox to sign a righty-swinging outfielder like Teoscar Hernandez (if they deal from the outfield) or to move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base (if they move Casas). That, in turn, could free up the possibility to trade for Nolan Arenado or to sign Alex Bregman in free agency. Boston could take the more direct approach of adding a right-handed bat to play second base while waiting on the development/arrival of top prospect Kristian Campbell (who can play multiple positions anyhow).

There are various avenues for Breslow & Co. to explore, but the second-year baseball operations leader’s comments Tuesday only reinforce that the Crochet acquisition was the first of what should be several notable offseason transactions.

Royals, Kyle Wright Avoid Arbitration

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The Royals announced that they have avoided arbitration with right-hander Kyle Wright and also signed new deals with lefties Evan Sisk and Noah Cameron. Wright’s deal is for $1.8MM, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. The salaries for Sisk and Cameron haven’t been reported but they are pre-arb players and likely set to make something near the $760K league minimum.

Wright’s $1.8MM salary is the same he made in 2024. He missed the entire season while recovering from a shoulder surgery he underwent in October of 2023, still with Atlanta at that time. It was known that he wasn’t going to be a factor this year but the Royals traded for him anyway in a long-play move.

Under the arbitration system, a player’s salary almost never goes down, so the Royals had likely planned on something like this. Wright can be retained through 2026, so they have effectively committed $3.6MM over a two-year period to get his services in 2025, with a chance at keeping him around another year as well.

There’s risk coming off a notable surgery and lost season but Wright will be a bargain at those price points if he can get back to his 2022 form. That year, he tossed 180 1/3 innings across 30 starts for Atlanta. He allowed 3.19 earned runs per nine with a 23.2% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 55.6% ground ball rate. His shoulder problems limited him to a 6.97 ERA in 31 innings in 2023 before the surgery wiped out the entire 2024 campaign.

The Royals had a strong rotation this year but just traded Brady Singer to the Reds to get Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer. They currently have Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in three rotation spots. Assuming Wright is healthy and back in form, he’ll be a strong candidate for a back-end spot. His competition will likely come from Kris Bubic and Alec Marsh. Bubic missed most of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery but returned this year and posted strong numbers out of the bullpen. Marsh had a solid 4.53 ERA at the back of the rotation in 2024, logging 129 innings.

Yankees Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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The Cubs have seemingly been trying to trade first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger for weeks, with the Yankees the club most often connected to Bellinger. Recent reports have suggested that the two clubs have been facing a gap in negotiations, however. It was reported over the weekend by Jon Heyman of The New York Post that the Yankees were considering various alternatives, which was echoed this afternoon by Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Heyman’s report from the weekend suggested that the Yankees were considering trade candidates like Josh Naylor of the Guardians and Nathaniel Lowe of the Rangers, as well as free agents Pete Alonso, Christian Walker or Carlos Santana. Nightengale’s framing is similar, saying that the Yankees are engaged with those three free agents as well as Paul Goldschmidt.

Those free agents will all come with very different price points, mostly due to age. Alonso is easily the youngest at 30 years old. Walker will turn 34 in March, Goldschmidt is 37 and Santana turns 39 in April. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Alonso for a five-year, $125MM deal, with Walker at $60MM over three years and Goldschmidt projected for $15MM on a one-year pact. Santana wasn’t mentioned after signing with the Twins for $5.25MM via a one-year deal last winter, though he could earn a raise after a strong 2024 season.

The Yankees still have several moving pieces in their offseason, so their first base move will come in conjunction with moves elsewhere. They also need a left fielder and one more infielder, likely a third baseman with Jazz Chisholm Jr. moving to second base, though adding at the keystone is also a possibility. Further bullpen moves could also be considered while the rotation arguably still has a surplus, even after the Yanks got Devin Williams for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin.

For those various openings, they have been connected to guys like Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, Bellinger and others, as well as these various first base candidates. How much they spend on one spot could naturally have an impact on how much they spend on another. RosterResource currently projects the club for a payroll of $245MM next year, while they were in the $300MM range in 2024.

Goldschmidt will likely be relatively affordable compared to Alonso or Walker, at least in terms of contract length. Given his age and recent downturn in performance, he’s likely looking at a one-year deal. He won National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 by hitting 35 home runs and slashing .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+, but he’s fallen off since.

Last year, it was 25 home runs, a .268/.363/.447 batting line and 122 wRC+. In 2024, he hit 22 homers with a .245/.302/.414 slash and 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average at the plate for the year. Apart from his rookie debut in 2011, his walk and strikeout rates were both career worsts in 2024, coming in at 7.2% and 26.5% respectively.

Given his age, those could be taken as signs of the start of a decline, though there’s perhaps some optimism to be found in his strong finish. He produced a line of .230/.291/.373 and an 87 wRC+ in the first half of 2024, then a .271/.319/.480 line and 120 wRC+ in the latter half. Either way, he shouldn’t be able to secure a massive payday this winter, but there’s also more risk with him than with someone like Alonso or Walker.

The Yankees will presumably be weighing all these different options as they decide where to put their resources. There’s nothing to say that they can’t get Bellinger and a free agent first baseman, as Bellinger could be slotted into left field, though the Yanks have other options there if they can’t line up with the Cubs on a trade.

Latest On Teoscar Hernandez

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The thinking that Teoscar Hernandez would sign early in the offseason or in the immediate aftermath of Juan Soto’s decision has not played out as such. The 32-year-old slugger remains unsigned, reportedly juggling interest from at least the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees to this point in the winter. Hernandez and the incumbent Dodgers have been unable to bridge a gap in Hernandez’s asking price and the team’s offer. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com adds further context, reporting that Hernandez is seeking a three-year deal that’ll guarantee him $22-24MM annually.

A three-year deal in $66-72MM range would generally dovetail with expectations. Hernandez’s agent, Rafa Nieves, already stated earlier in the offseason that Hernandez had been seeking three years last offseason when they pivoted and took a one-year deal in Los Angeles. A three-year deal on the heels of the slugger’s rebound campaign in L.A. seemed (and still seems) reasonable, even though he’s now headed into his age-32 season after rejecting a qualifying offer (and thus attaching himself to draft pick compensation). That $22-24MM range would align with last year’s $23MM salary (though some of that was deferred, dinging the net present value a bit).

With Soto off the board, Hernandez and fellow slugger Anthony Santander are the top corner outfield bats on the free agent market. Santander is two years younger but is also reportedly seeking a five-year deal after swatting 44 homers for the Orioles in 2024. Both players rejected QOs. Hernandez is the more affordable of the two but is also older and more strikeout-prone. The presence of Cody Bellinger on the trade market and the recent emergence of the now-traded Kyle Tucker might’ve combined to slow things down for Hernandez’s market, speculatively speaking.

Hernandez turned in a .272/.339/.501 slash with a career-high 33 home runs last season before going on to hit .250/.352/.417 in postseason play. His 28.8% strikeout rate was an improvement over his 31.1% mark from 2023 but still sat about six percentage points higher than league average. His 8.1% walk rate was the second-best of his career but fell right in line with the 8.2% league average. At this point, teams can expect plus power, a below-average walk rate and more strikeouts than they’d prefer from Hernandez. He drew well below-average marks for his defense, but Hernandez has plus speed and above-average arm strength, per Statcast, so a team might think there’s enough raw talent to coax some better performance out of him.

The defensive concerns do make a multi-year reunion with the Dodgers a potentially problematic pairing, however. Hernandez has said he hopes to return — and the Dodgers are clearly open to a reunion. Beating the rest of the market when Hernandez is already 32 and there’s no DH opportunity thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani could make a long-term arrangement worrisome for Los Angeles in a way that’s not the case with other Hernandez suitors.

Yankees Sign Max Fried

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The Yankees made their biggest move of the winter official, announcing Tuesday that they’ve signed left-hander Max Fried to an eight-year contract. The CAA client will reportedly be guaranteed a staggering $218MM on the deal, which does not include an deferrals or opt-out provisions but does include a full no-trade clause. Fried receives a $20MM signing bonus that’ll be paid out in two equal in January 2025 and ’26. He’ll make $12MM in salary for each of the first two seasons and be paid $29MM annually between 2027-32. Fried is set to be introduced at a press conference on Wednesday, which is scheduled for noon ET.

After losing the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Yankees had plenty of money to outspend the rest of the field for his services and made use of those resources. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported earlier this evening that the Yanks were willing to offer Fried seven years, but they were evidently willing to going beyond that to get the market’s top unsigned southpaw on what is the largest contract for a lefty pitcher in MLB history, outbidding the club’s fellow finalists for Fried’s services in Boston and Dallas. It’s not hard to see what they like about the southpaw. Dating back to his first full season in 2019, Fried has a 3.07 ERA in 824 2/3 innings pitched. Only one pitcher in baseball has bested him in both categories during that time: Gerrit Cole, who he’ll now share the front of the Yankees rotation with.

That track record of dominance and durability that made Fried such an appealing target in the Bronx given the question marks that surround the rest of the club’s deep but flawed rotation mix. Carlos Rodón has been utterly dominant at times throughout his career, but he’s looked uneven in two seasons with the Yankees as he’s pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 46 starts. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman has a long history of solid mid-rotation work, but he’s entering his age-34 season and did not make an appearance during the club’s run to the World Series this postseason. Nestor Cortes offers similar mid-rotation stability but struggled as recently as last year and is just one season away from free agency. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil and fellow youngster Clarke Schmidt both turned in promising seasons in 2024 but have checkered injury histories and minimal track records in the big leagues.

By contrast, Fried is the whole package. Since breaking out as a front-of-the-rotation arm with Atlanta, Fried’s 2.81 ERA is the third-best figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, bested only by Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw. While his 23.6% strikeout rate during that time doesn’t exactly jump off the page, his 6.3% walk rate is well above average and he’s also generated grounders at an impressive 54.2% clip that only Alex Cobb, Logan Webb, and Framber Valdez have bested. The southpaw’s grounder-heavy approach should serve as an excellent complement to Cole’s power-pitching reputation and form a fearsome combo at the top of the Yankees rotation for years to come.

That combination was sufficiently intriguing to the Yankees that they were willing to go well over the top to land their man. The #6 ranked free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agent list, Fried blew away the six-year, $156MM pact we predicted for him as well as other projections around the baseball world. Today’s pact is surely exciting news for Corbin Burnes and agent Scott Boras, to whom anyone hoping to land a top-of-the-rotation free agent this winter will now have to turn with both Fried and Blake Snell off the board. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox already began preparing an offer for Burnes this afternoon. The Blue Jays, another suitor for Fried, have also expressed interest in Burnes. Burnes landed as MLBTR’s #2 free agent of the winter behind only Soto and was predicted to land a seven-year, $200MM contract at the outset of the offseason but it would hardly be a surprise to see his camp’s asking price increase in light of Fried’s deal.

Turning back to the Yankees, their projected payroll for 2025 now sits at $257MM (per RosterResource). That’s still $46MM below last year’s total. Meanwhile, their $265MM luxury tax payroll is above the first two CBT thresholds; last season it sat above the fourth and highest threshold for penalties. In other words, the Yankees should still have plenty to spend on impact free agents to try to fill the Soto-shaped hole in the roster. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that signing Fried will cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool money.

They might be hesitant to sign a second QO-rejecting free agent and therefore forfeit their third- and sixth-highest draft picks as well. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that while the Yankees signed three players who declined a QO during the 2022-23 offseason, two of them (Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo) were their own free agents and therefore did not cost the club anything beyond a hypothetical compensation pick. To find the last instance of the club signing multiple qualified free agents hailing from other teams in a single offseason, you would have to turn towards the 2013-14 offseason when the club landed Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann.

With that being said, some have compared the club’s approach to the free agent market in a post-Soto world to their approach that offseason, when they failed to re-sign star second baseman Robinson Cano. That could suggest at least some level of willingness to continue pursuing qualified free agents, particularly given the fact that they’ll receive a compensatory pick for the loss of Soto to help mitigate the losses. Christian Walker, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the other qualified free agents to which the Yankees have been connected since Soto signed in Queens.

One other avenue for improving the club signing Fried opens up is dealing a different starting pitcher, and with the club’s rotation now featuring seven starters it’s difficult to imagine the club not moving at least one if not two of their starters below Fried and Cole on the pecking order. Rodon’s weak results in the Bronx and hefty contract would appear to make a deal coming together involving him unlikely, but any of the club’s other four starters could reasonably be moved. Stroman and Cortes have frequently found their names in the rumor mill this winter as potential trade targets, though health question marks surrounding Cortes and Stroman’s lackluster 2024 campaign could hamper the potential return for either hurler. Schmidt and Gil would both surely bring back a far more interesting return but it’s unclear if the Yankees have much of an appetite for moving on from either youngster. While the club could dangling one or more of its starters in exchange for big league talent, it’s also possible that trading from the rotation could supplement the farm system and make the Yankees more comfortable losing the draft picks associated with additional qualified free agents signings.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first broke the agreement and the terms of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Joel Sherman of the New York Post came through with additional details. The Post’s Jon Heyman had the specific salary breakdown.

Braves, Jordan Weems Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent righty Jordan Weems, per MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. He’ll be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee in spring training. Weems is represented by O’Connell Sports Management.

Weems, who just turned 32, has spent the past three seasons with the Nationals, for whom he’s totaled 136 innings with a 5.03 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate out of the bullpen. He’s averaged 96.4 mph on his heater during that time, primarily coupling the pitch with a slider that’s averaged 87.7 mph in that same span. Washington passed Weems through waivers back in August, and he became a free agent following the season, as was his right as an outrighted player with three-plus years of big league service time.

Weems’ most effective season came with the Nats in 2023, when he pitched a career-high 54 2/3 big league innings with a 3.62 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate. That solid showing was bookended by a pair of rough years with ERAs north of 5.00, however. During his three years with the Nationals organization, he’s also pitched to a 3.27 earned run average in 77 Triple-A frames.

The Braves have clearly been operating on a tight budget this winter, looking to stockpile depth in the outfield and bullpen on low-cost deals. Weems joins Enoli Paredes and Ray Kerr as non-roster invitees who’ve signed in the wake of Joe Jimenez’s knee surgery, which will cost the righty most and possibly all of the 2025 season. (Kerr is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out until the summer as well.) Atlanta has also inked outfielder Bryan De La Cruz and righty Connor Gillispie to split (non-guaranteed) major league contracts with low salaries.

At present, RosterResource projects the Braves for a $201MM payroll with just over $217MM of luxury obligations. That places Atlanta about $30MM shy of where it ended the 2024 season in terms of payroll — and nearly $60MM shy of last year’s luxury tax ledger. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said earlier this month that his club is willing to pay the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season, but to this point anyhow, most of Atlanta’s transactions have centered around scaling back spending and compiling affordable depth. That doesn’t preclude an eventual free agent strike of note and/or an impactful trade, but there’s been little to no inkling of such talks for Atlanta so far in the offseason.

Trey Cabbage To Sign With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

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Dec. 17: Cabbage will sign with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Dec. 16: The Pirates released first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports that Cabbage will pursue an opportunity in a foreign league. That opens a spot on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster, which drops to 37.

Pittsburgh claimed Cabbage off waivers from the Astros last month. Houston had attempted to outright him off their roster at the beginning of the offseason. Cabbage could’ve battled for a spot in Spring Training with the Bucs, but there was no guarantee he’d have stuck on the roster all winter. Even if he’d held the 40-man spot, Cabbage has an option remaining and might’ve spent most of next year in Triple-A.

It seems his camp is finalizing a deal with a team in another league that’d presumably come with a better payday. Cabbage has an intriguing power-speed combination. He had a 30-30 showing with a .306/.379/.596 slash in Triple-A with the Angels in 2023. His minor league production wasn’t quite as strong this year (.243/.351/.474) but he made a career-high 45 MLB appearances with the Astros. MLB pitching has exploited Cabbage’s propensity for huge strikeout totals in the upper minors, fanning him at a near-41% clip. He’s a career .209/.245/.331 hitter in 147 big league plate appearances.

The Opener: Luzardo, Baddoo, MLBTR Chat

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As the Hot Stove continues to simmer following a busy Winter Meetings week, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Could a Luzardo deal be in the works?

The overwhelming majority of teams are at least ostensibly trying to contend in 2024, leaving precious few rebuilding teams who can be expected to trade established players for prospects this winter. The Marlins are among the few clear sellers, and they’re seemingly open for business regarding their established players not named Sandy Alcantara. They already dealt infielder Jake Burger to the Rangers during the Winter Meetings, and now it appears left-hander Jesus Luzardo could be the next player Miami deals away. The Cubs are reportedly making a push to acquire the southpaw.

It’s not clear if a deal between the sides is close or if there are any other Luzardo suitors in active talks with the Fish, but adding Luzardo would give a Chicago team that already swung a trade for star outfielder Kyle Tucker an upside arm to pair with fellow lefties Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, likely slotting in ahead of Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd in the starting five. Luzardo struggled in 2024, making just 12 starts due to lumbar issues and pitching to a 5.00 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound. However, he’s among the hardest-throwing lefties in the sport and is just one year removed from posting a 3.58 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate in 32 starts in 2023.

2. Baddoo resolution imminent:

A resolution regarding the future of Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo is expected today. Baddoo was designated for assignment by Detroit last week to create 40-man space for freshly-signed righty Alex Cobb, giving them one week to either trade Baddoo or attempt to pass him through waivers. That one week window expires today, so it should soon be apparent whether or not he’s headed to a new team. Baddoo, a former Rule 5 pick by the Tigers, impressed during his rookie season in 2021 with above-average numbers at the plate but has hit just .203/.292/.328 in the majors across the last three seasons. Any acquiring team would be on the hook to offer Baddoo a contract via arbitration in 2025, which projections from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to land at $1.6MM.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the Winter Meetings behind us, the offseason is in full swing with 16 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents off the board. Whether you have questions about who your favorite team will be targeting this winter or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Orioles Sign Tomoyuki Sugano

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The Orioles signed longtime NPB star Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year contract on Monday evening. Sugano, a client of VC Sports Group, is reportedly guaranteed $13MM. Baltimore had an opening on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary.

Sugano makes the jump to Major League Baseball for the first time in what’ll be his age-35 season. He’s one of Japan’s most accomplished pitchers. The 6’1″ right-hander spent 12 years with the Yomiuri Giants in his home country. He posted a 2.43 earned run average in more than 1800 innings at the NPB level.

Major league scouts have followed Sugano for some time. He first appeared on many fans’ radars when the Yomiuri Giants made him available via the posting system during the 2020-21 offseason. Sugano was coming off a 1.97 ERA showing in his age-30 season. While he certainly attracted attention from big league clubs, he didn’t find a deal that compelled him to leave Japan. Instead, Sugano returned to the Giants on a four-year deal that paid him $40MM.

That contract allowed Sugano to opt out after each season, potentially clearing a path for him to make the move to MLB. He was evidently happy with his longtime club and decided not to take any of the early outs. Once the four-year term concluded, his camp made clear he intended to sign with an MLB team this offseason. Sugano had surpassed the nine years of NPB service time necessary to qualify for international free agency. Yomiuri will not receive any compensation for his departure, nor will the deal cost the Orioles anything other than the player’s salary.

Despite his age, Sugano is coming off one of his strongest seasons. He turned in a 1.67 ERA across 156 2/3 innings spanning 24 starts. It’s the second-lowest ERA of his career and earned him the NPB’s Central League MVP award for the third time. That’s not to say he’s still at his absolute peak form, however. Sugano only threw 77 2/3 innings during the 2023 season, reportedly on account of an elbow injury. His swing-and-miss rates have also dropped significantly compared to earlier years. Sugano struck out 18.3% of batters faced this year — well off the 24-26% range he’d posted in his late 20s.

Sugano’s NPB strikeout rate was about four percentage points lower than the 22% MLB average for starting pitchers. Many NPB hitters adopt a more contact-oriented approach than is common in the big leagues, so perhaps he’ll miss a few more bats in the majors. Sugano doesn’t have the same upside he would’ve brought a few seasons ago, though. Baseball America’s scouting report notes that his fastball velocity has dipped into the 92-93 MPH range after sitting somewhere between 94-96 MPH earlier in his career.

While the pure stuff has dropped as he’s aged and battled injury, Sugano has thrived thanks to his feel for pitching. That’s most evident in his excellent command. Sugano only walked 16 hitters all season, a microscopic 2.6% rate that’s lower than what any MLB starter managed this year (minimum 100 innings). That should rise slightly as he faces more patient hitters, but it’s fair to project Sugano for plus or better command.

Baseball America writes that Sugano indeed profiles as a control-oriented fourth or fifth starter. The outlet credits him with a five-pitch mix headlined by an above-average slider and splitter. Fans are encouraged to read BA’s full column, which also includes updated scouting reports on other prominent NPB and KBO players who are available to MLB teams (i.e. Roki Sasaki, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Hyeseong Kim and Koyo Aoyagi).

The contract aligns with MLBTR’s prediction of one year and $12MM. It values Sugano as a capable back-end starter. Alex Cobb signed for $15MM with the Tigers last week. Late-career innings eaters Lance Lynn ($11MM) and Kyle Gibson ($13MM) got similar one-year deals with the Cardinals last offseason.

Sugano is a needed rotation upgrade for GM Mike Elias and his front office. The O’s should continue searching for higher-upside arms in the coming weeks. Sugano slots behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez in the projected rotation. Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers, Albert Suarez and youngsters Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are options for the final two spots. The rotation remains Baltimore’s biggest question mark.

Sugano is the third highest-paid player on the roster, narrowly trailing Eflin ($18MM) and newly signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill ($16.5MM). Their player payroll is up to $134MM, as calculated by RosterResource. It’s not clear how far they’re willing to push spending in the first offseason under the David Rubenstein ownership group.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the salary. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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