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Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are at a crossroads this offseason, as they seek a new GM and face the temptation of adding more big free agent contracts.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Cubs were a $134MM disaster in 2011.  Despite all their spending the team hasn't reached the playoffs since '08.  This summer they fired longtime GM Jim Hendry, whose teams made the playoffs in three of nine seasons.  Owner Tom Ricketts seeks a more analytically-inclined GM to craft the roster.  His other criteria include a commitment to player development and a track record of success.  Ricketts has pledged silence during the ongoing search, but reports suggest he's initially targeting current GMs such as Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman.  The job security of Mike Quade is in question as well, as a new GM may want to hire a new manager.

The new GM will have to spend free agent dollars wisely, which was often a problem for Hendry in recent years.  A steady payroll for 2012 could give the Cubs a hefty $40MM to work with in 2012 salaries.  The possibility of a quick turnaround tempts Ricketts, who referenced the Diamondbacks' success in a recent interview.  The D'Backs were fairly restrained in free agency last winter, but the Cubs are in a position to throw around some cash in the coming months.  The potential areas to upgrade are plentiful, with openings at the infield corners, right field, the rotation, and in the bullpen.

The Cubs may have to make a concession at third base.  The opportunity to re-sign Ramirez — easily the best free agent third baseman available — to a below-market contract hasn't motivated them, and the team's offense will suffer without him.  The first base market is appealing, with superstars Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder options to take up more than half of the Cubs' payroll flexibility.  With such a clear rotation need, though, the Cubs could lower their sights at first base and re-sign Pena or pursue Michael Cuddyer.  Cuddyer's versatility could be a nice match for the Cubs, who have openings at all his positions.

The Cubs appear intent on unloading Zambrano, whose performance is probably worth a few million dollars to some team.  Chone Figgins could be a reasonable target given the Cubs' third base vacancy and the limited options at that position, though the Mariners would have to be willing to take another potential head case from the Cubs.  Assuming Dempster returns, he'll join Garza and Wells in the rotation.  If a quick fix is the goal the Cubs would be best-served by shopping in the high-end section of the market: C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, or Yu Darvish.  On the other hand, signing any of the potential $100MM+ players this offseason would hardly break the Cubs' cycle of piling on burdensome contracts.

I can't picture the Cubs slashing payroll given their attendance and rabid fanbase, but I'm also not convinced they're going to come away with Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Wilson, or Darvish.  With so many needs, the Cubs could easily spread their surplus among four or five veterans.  Other big-market teams have shown an ability to contend and improve the farm system simultaneously, a strategy the Cubs appeared to finally initiate with a slew of over-slot signings in the June draft.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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Prepare for the most exciting Marlins offseason in recent memory.  With new manager Ozzie Guillen's arrival and the opening of the team's new ballpark, ownership wants to make 2012 unforgettable.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

To compete in the NL East next year, the Marlins will need improved starting pitching, offense, and health.  Clearly, this team is looking for a fresh start in 2012 as they've been rebranded the Miami Marlins, and quote machine Guillen will man the helm.  Most importantly, the team's payroll will be the largest in franchise history.

The six players under guaranteed contracts account for $49.75MM in salary, which is only $8MM shy of 2011's Opening Day payroll.  Estimating the price of the club's ten-player arbitration class is a difficult exercise.  I think we can pencil in Sanchez, Bonifacio, Mujica, and Badenhop for about $10.5MM, but that leaves the remaining six as candidates for non-tender or trade.  Oviedo, formerly known as closer Leo Nunez prior to the revelation of his commitment of identity fraud, was already the highest-paid reliever in Marlins history in 2011.  He could receive a $2MM+ raise and his 2012 team must request a visa for him to play next year, which could seal the fate of Oviedo, who was already on the bubble as a non-tender candidate.  If Oviedo is not retained, the remaining arbitration eligibles won't be too costly.

Subtracting Oviedo and Vazquez and otherwise keeping the Marlins the same will already result in over $65MM in commitments, a franchise payroll record.  Recently, a person close to the Marlins' front office told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post the 2012 payroll could approach $100MM, as owner Jeffrey Loria aims to make 2012 unforgettable.  If Loria follows through, the result would be an additional $35MM in payroll flexibility, which could be further expanded if the team trades Nolasco.  However, with Vazquez and his 192 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball potentially headed for retirement and ace Josh Johnson limited to 60 1/3 innings in 2011 due to a shoulder injury, a Nolasco trade could add uncertainty to a situation already bursting with it.

I expect president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest to actively seek starting pitching, especially if he's bearish about the futures of Nolasco and Volstad.  Several interesting rotation scenarios have been tossed around, from Guillen bringing in old Chicago friends Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins winning the bidding on C.J. Wilson.  The bullpen should have many holdovers, but new blood is likely if Oviedo is non-tendered. 

Questions in the Marlins' offense also abound, as center field and third base are unsettled.  The team's top prospect  Matt Dominguez wouldn't represent a "win-now" choice at the hot corner, but Aramis Ramirez, the one desirable free agent third baseman, could block Dominguez for three years.  Coco Crisp is probably the only viable free agent option for center field, but the trade market may feature B.J. Upton and Denard Span.  Internally, Bryan Petersen could hold equal appeal.

Another potential route for the Marlins would be signing a big-name free agent and trading Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison for pitching.  Both players had respectable 2011 seasons, showing decent pop and on-base ability.  Sanchez may still be on notice because the free agent market offers a pair of first-base superstars in Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.  With Morrison, there's speculation that the outspoken left fielder's questionable August demotion could be a precursor to a trade.  I think the Marlins have too many offensive question marks to sell low on LoMo.

The Marlins may achieve temporary media relevance with Guillen and a couple of pricey free agents, as they look to go all-in for the opening of their new stadium.  Ultimately, though, the biggest additions to the 2012 club may be healthy seasons from Ramirez and Johnson.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Expect a quiet offseason for the Astros, who conducted their fire sale in July.  Intrigue may come from possible ownership, GM, and league changes.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Lee, LF/1B: $18.5MM through 2012, ten-and-five rights
  • Wandy Rodriguez, SP: $25.5MM through 2013, 2014 club option becomes player option upon trade
  • Brett Myers, SP: $14MM through 2012 unless '13 option vests
  • Brandon Lyon, RP: $5.5MM through 2012 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

As the worst team in baseball, the 2012 Astros seem lacking just about everywhere. Things may get worse before they get better.  Second baseman Jose Altuve, starting pitchers Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles, and closer Mark Melancon are bright spots who should be around for a while.  Versatile 27-year-old Matt Downs had a nice second half in 2011.  However, there may not be many reasons to watch this team in 2012.

The Astros could have over $20MM to work with for the 2012 season if they hold payroll steady, as our arbitration eligibles post shows.  There's no need to spend the entire surplus on free agents for a team going nowhere.  I'd tinker with the bullpen by bringing in a few upside relievers on one-year deals with an eye on flipping them midseason.  Failing that, the 'Stros could at least hope to snag a supplemental pick or two after the season.

Every team needs veterans, but the four the Astros have under contract are somewhat expensive.  Rodriguez may be the only one with trade value, but with a potential $36MM owed over 2012-14, the Astros wouldn't get elite prospects in return.  There has to be a middle ground between simply dumping the contract, which the Astros decided against when the Rockies claimed him in August, and making outlandish player demands.  If Wandy is dealt, the Astros could reinvest in a more affordable veteran starter.

Jim Crane hasn't yet been approved as the next owner of the Astros and his group will have the option to opt out of purchasing the team from Drayton McLane on November 30th.  If MLB resolves its questions about past charges against two of Crane's companies, the remaining hurdle would be convincing the new owner to join the AL West.  The Angels, A's, Mariners, and Rangers would welcome the Astros, who appear several years away from contention.  Should Crane decide GM Ed Wade is not the man to continue rebuilding efforts, the goal becomes finding a patient executive with great scouting acumen.  For the Astros' sake, hopefully hard slotting is not part of the next collective bargaining agreement.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Red Sox.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Victor Martinez – $7.7MM
C – Jason Varitek – $3MM
1B – Kevin Youkilis – $9.125MM
2B – Dustin Pedroia – $3.5MM
SS –
3B – Mike Lowell – $12MM
IF – Jed Lowrie – $415K
LF –
CF – Jacoby Ellsbury – $450K
RF – J.D. Drew – $14MM
OF – Jeremy Hermida – $3.5MM (est.)
DH – David Ortiz – $12.5MM
1B – Casey Kotchman – $4MM (est.)

SP – Josh Beckett – $12MM
SP – Daisuke Matsuzaka – $8MM
SP – Jon Lester – $3.75MM
SP – Clay Buchholz – $415K
SP – Tim Wakefield – $3.5MM

RP – Jonathan Papelbon – $10MM (est.)
RP – Hideki Okajima – $2.5MM (est.)
RP – Ramon Ramirez – $1.5MM (est.)
RP – Daniel Bard – $400K
RP – Manny Delcarmen – $1MM (est.)
RP –
RP –

Other commitments: Julio Lugo – $9MM, Billy Wagner – $1MM, Alex Gonzalez – $500K

I decided to do things a little differently this time and put in estimates for the arbitration-eligible players (Hermida, Kotchman, Papelbon, Okajima, Ramirez, and Delcarmen).  I also left four spots open as I think the Sox will acquire players to fill most of those vacancies.  I have the Red Sox with about $124MM committed after entering 2009 around $122MM.  Their payroll was $133MM in '08 and $143MM in '07.  As they did last year, Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe feels that the Red Sox have pretty good payroll flexibility.  Note that they could trim $5MM or so by trading or non-tendered Kotchman and Delcarmen.

Overpaying a bit for Marco Scutaro, in terms of both salary and a draft pick, seems like a legitimate possibility at shortstop.  He is the best available at the position this year.  Adam Everett is a solid, very affordable Plan B; he could battle it out with Lowrie.  It's not clear whether the Sox made a play for J.J. Hardy before he landed with the Twins.  Now that Hardy's a Twin, the trade market looks bleak.  If GM Theo Epstein is willing to wait, it'd be worth inquiring on the Angels' Maicer Izturis if they re-sign Chone Figgins and are willing to listen.  Moving Pedroia to shortstop appears to be a last resort.

Much has been written debating the merits of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday.  I'm guesing lesser players like Brad Hawpe, Josh Willingham, and Jermaine Dye could be considered as backup plans.  Or, Hermida could be given a shot.

It appears that the Sox are playing around with the idea of trading Lowell, which would put them in the mix for a corner infielder.  Adrian Gonzalez is the big fish possibly on the trade market.  Other speculative acquisitions have different strengths: Russell Branyan could add power, Nick Johnson could add OBP, Mark DeRosa brings versatility, and Adrian Beltre brings defense.  So far we've seen the Sox connected to utility infielder types like Adam Kennedy and Bobby Crosby, aside from DeRosa.

The rotation is in good shape, but most expect the Red Sox to add a starter or two for good measure in the vein of last year's Brad Penny/John Smoltz signings.  There's a laundry list of decent one-year deal options, including Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Kelvim Escobar, Brett Myers, and Ben Sheets.  As for Aroldis Chapman, he'd probably be more of a long-term investment rather than a cog in the 2010 rotation.  If the Red Sox decide to prioritize pitching and pay a large cost in a contract or young players, there's always John Lackey and Roy Halladay.  A couple of considerations in acquiring a big-name starter are Beckett's impending free agency and the Yankees' targets.

Given Boston's inquiries on Scutaro, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, and perhaps Holliday, I'm guessing they won't mind letting their #29 pick in next year's draft go.  And as we saw with the Yankees last year, once you sign one Type A, the price for the next one decreases.  Gonzalez and Soriano are two of the best free agent relievers out there, but the free agent market is packed with more affordable alternatives for a team that isn't desperate for relief help.  They could also trade a spare piece like Kotchman, much as they did last year getting Ramirez for Coco Crisp.

The Red Sox appear limited in their shortstop and power bat options, while they have tons of choices for pitching additions.  As usual, expect to see Boston linked to dozens of free agents and trade candidates this winter.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Philles.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Carlos Ruiz – $475K+
C – Paul Hoover – $400K
1B – Ryan Howard – $19MM
2B – Chase Utley – $15MM
SS – Jimmy Rollins – $7.5MM
3B –
IF – Juan Castro – $800K (estimated)
LF – Raul Ibanez – $11.5MM
CF – Shane Victorino – $3.125MM+
RF – Jayson Werth – $7MM
OF – Ben Francisco – $421K
OF – John Mayberry Jr. – $400K
1B/3B/OF – Greg Dobbs – $1.35MM

SP – Cliff Lee – $9MM
SP – Cole Hamels – $6.65MM
SP – Joe Blanton – $5.475MM+
SP – J.A. Happ – $405K
SP – Jamie Moyer – $8MM

RP – Brad Lidge – $11.5MM
RP – J.C. Romero – $4MM
RP – Ryan Madson – $4.5MM
RP – Chad Durbin – $1.635MM+
RP – Clay Condrey – $650K+
RP – Sergio Escalona – $400K
RP – Kyle Kendrick – $475K

Non-tender candidates: Durbin, Condrey

Other commitments: Adam Eaton – $500K, Pedro Feliz – $500K, Geoff Jenkins – $1.25MM

The Phillies have about $121.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Ruiz, Victorino, Blanton, Durbin, and Condrey.  Those raises should put the Phils in the $130MM range after beginning 2009 at $132.5MM.  The Phillies would have about $10MM to spend with a $140MM payroll, although Scott Lauber of The News Journal believes they have closer to $120MM committed (and $20MM to spend).

The Phillies' needs are clear: a starting third baseman, a late-inning reliever or two, and perhaps a backup catcher and cheap starting pitcher.  With Romero recovering from a flexor tendon surgery, one of the relievers will probably be a lefty.

At third base, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, and Placido Polanco are the free agent targets.  Beltre, 31 in April, would likely be an improvement on Pedro Feliz both offensively and defensively.  Will Ruben Amaro Jr. tangle with Scott Boras?  He extended Madson in January and signed Rodrigo Lopez in March, so relations seem fine.

Re-signing relievers Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre appears unlikely, based on recent reports.  We have seen the Phils named as speculative suitors for Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, with the latter a better fit since the team isn't quite ready to hand over Lidge's ninth-inning role.  Guys like Kevin Gregg, Rafael Betancourt, Octavio Dotel, LaTroy Hawkins, and J.J. Putz may also be willing to accept uncertainty between an eighth or ninth-inning role.  The Phillies could also take the Mets-Putz approach – if you trade for someone, he has no say in his role.  If the Phils were willing to offer up the closer job, they could look at free agents Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner.

A significant starting pitching acquisition seems unlikely, as the Phillies will be right up against that $140MM limit after filling the third base and bullpen needs.  Barring unforeseen injuries, the Phillies should be one of the NL's top teams again next year.  Their biggest move was acquiring Lee on July 29th; they'll enjoy him for all of 2010.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Rockies.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Chris Iannetta – $415K+
C – Paul Phillips – $415K 
1B – Todd Helton – $16.6MM
2B – Clint Barmes – $1.625MM+
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – $3.5MM 
3B – Ian Stewart – $404K
IF – Omar Quintanilla – $408K
LF – Carlos Gonzalez – $403K
CF – Dexter Fowler – $401K
RF – Brad Hawpe – $7.5MM
OF – Ryan Spilborghs – $415K+
OF – Seth Smith – $403K
OF – Matt Murton – $430K+

SP – Ubaldo Jimenez – $1.25MM
SP – Aaron Cook – $9MM
SP – Jorge de la Rosa – $2MM+
SP – Jason Hammel – $422K+
SP – Jeff Francis – $5.75MM

RP – Huston Street – $4.5MM+
RP – Franklin Morales – $402K
RP – Matt Daley – $400K
RP – Taylor Buchholz – $1.055MM+
RP – Manny Corpas – $2.75MM
RP – Matt Belisle – $850K
RP – Randy Flores – $650K

Other obligations: Yorvit Torrealba – $500K, Alan Embree – $250K

Non-tender candidates: Garrett Atkins

The Rockies have about $63MM committed before arbitration raises to Iannetta, Barmes, Spilborghs, Murton, de la Rosa, Hammel, Street, and Buchholz.  It would not be surprising to see the raises put the Rockies close to $80MM.  They entered 2009 at $75.2MM according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, so there's not much to spend this winter.

While the Rockies may have limited resources, GM Dan O'Dowd doesn't have much to do besides perhaps signing a late-inning reliever.  Rafael Betancourt could be the guy; it's believed the Rockies will offer arbitration to the Type A free agent.  O'Dowd has also said he's interested in re-signing Jose Contreras and Joe Beimel to bolster the 'pen.  The rotation looks strong, with Francis coming back from shoulder surgery to replace Jason Marquis.

The Rockies also appear set at all positions, though the two-year offer made to Yorvit Torrealba indicates they're not completely comfortable with Iannetta behind the dish.  Atkins' Colorado career is over; O'Dowd is now just trying to get anything in return before the December 12th non-tender deadline.

The Rockies have a surplus in the outfield, as they might be best-served with an affordable trio of Smith, Fowler, and Gonzalez.  That O'Dowd has more than $5MM to spend tells us that either the team's payroll is going up, or Hawpe will be traded.  However, while it seems that the Rockies will listen on Hawpe, they won't shop him.  Once source of Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi indicated a few weeks ago that the Rockies would seek "a right-handed-hitting outfielder and a reliable seventh-inning reliever" for Hawpe.  The Cubs, Mets, and Red Sox could be potential suitors, though the Cubs' plan to move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field might take them out of the mix.

It looks like a quiet offseason for the Rockies – O'Dowd figures to look into potential Hawpe trades and otherwise tinker with the bullpen and bench.  Management will still have their hands full with the multiple significant arbitration cases.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Yadier Molina – $4.25MM
C – Matt Pagnozzi – $400K
1B – Albert Pujols – $16MM
2B – Skip Schumaker – $430K+
SS – Brendan Ryan – $405K
3B – David Freese – $400K
IF – Julio Lugo – $400K
IF – Tyler Greene – $400K
IF/OF – Joe Thurston – $475K
LF –
CF – Colby Rasmus – $400K
RF – Ryan Ludwick – $3.7MM+
OF – Allen Craig – $400K

SP – Chris Carpenter – $14.5MM
SP – Adam Wainwright – $4.65MM
SP – Kyle Lohse – $8.875MM
SP – Jaime Garcia – $400K
SP – Mitchell Boggs – $400K

RP – Ryan Franklin – $3.25MM
RP – Trever Miller – $2MM
RP – Dennys Reyes – $2MM
RP – Kyle McClellan – $410K
RP – Josh Kinney – $405K
RP – Jason Motte – $400K
RP – Blake Hawksworth – $400K

That comes to about $65MM before arbitration raises to Ludwick and Schumaker.  So we'll put the Cardinals around $70MM committed.  The Cardinals entered the season at $88.5MM, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  GM John Mozeliak could have close to $20MM to spend this winter.

Clearly the Cardinals' offseason hinges on Matt Holliday.  If Holliday is signed even to a backloaded contract, it seems that Mozeliak won't be able to do much with the third base and rotation needs.  Holliday figures to cost $16-20MM annually for at least five years.  Re-signing John Smoltz might allow for the best of both worlds – a chance at 150 innings of above-average pitching without breaking the bank.  Presumably Holliday and Smoltz could both be squeezed in.

Should Holliday sign elsewhere or the Cardinals decide to move on, there are plenty of free agents to suit their needs.  The Cards can move on to the next best thing in Jason Bay, and probably end up with more spending money for other players.  It will be difficult to entirely avoid Scott Boras this winter, because Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady might become options as Mozeliak moves down the left fielder list.

Also, Boras client Adrian Beltre is an intriguing third base option if the Cardinals prefer not to splurge on Chone Figgins.  Mark DeRosa and Miguel Tejada are a bit older but would be solid one-year choices.  Dan Uggla, Kevin Kouzmanoff,  Josh Willingham, and David DeJesus could be trade considerations at third and left.

If Holliday departs, the Cardinals can up the ante on the rotation and take a look at Randy Wolf or Joel Pineiro.  Mozeliak recently told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the club may consider a rotation upgrade if they don't ink Holliday, but signing John Lackey is unlikely.

Which route do you prefer for the Cardinals this winter – sign Holliday and tinker elsewhere, or spread the money around to three or more solid veterans?

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Giants.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Buster Posey – $400K
C – Eli Whiteside – $400K
1B – Travis Ishikawa – $401K
2B – Freddy Sanchez – $6MM
SS – Edgar Renteria – $9MM
3B – Pablo Sandoval – $402K
IF – Kevin Frandsen – $410K
IF – Emmanuel Burriss – $404K
IF/OF – Eugenio Velez – $404K
LF – Fred Lewis – $440K
CF – Aaron Rowand – $12MM
RF – Nate Schierholtz -$401K
OF – Andres Torres – $400K

SP – Tim Lincecum – $650K+
SP – Matt Cain – $4.25MM
SP – Jonathan Sanchez – $455K+
SP – Barry Zito – $18.5MM
SP – Joe Martinez – $400K

Other candidates: Ryan Sadowski, Madison Bumgarner

RP – Jeremy Affeldt – $4MM
RP – Brian Wilson – $480K+
RP – Brandon Medders – $475K+
RP – Merkin Valdez – $401K
RP – Sergio Romo – $402K
RP – Dan Runzler – $400K
RP – Waldis Joaquin – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Ryan Garko

The Giants have about $62MM committed before arbitration raises to Lincecum, Sanchez, Wilson, and Medders.  I'm assuming Garko is non-tendered.  The pitchers' raises won't be cheap – they'll push the Giants up to the $80MM range.  The Giants entered the 2009 season with an $82.6MM payroll, and it's not expected to change drastically.  Nonetheless Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News suggested last month that the Giants have enough money to afford "one free agent starting pitcher and one modestly-priced free agent hitter."

Baggarly makes a good point, that the Giants really don't have the payroll space to dabble in the $15MM+ range of Matt Holliday or Jason Bay.  GM Brian Sabean at least has positional flexibility with possible acquisitions – the infield and outfield corners are all fair game.  Dan Uggla, Johnny Damon, and Mark DeRosa have already been named in various rumors.  The Giants are pretty weak at the corners aside from Sandoval, so importing two bats would be ideal.

With payroll looking tight, it doesn't make sense to bring catcher Bengie Molina back.  Instead, that money should be applied toward a starting pitcher to round out the rotation.  Rumor has it, the Giants hope to re-sign Brad Penny.  If he gets too pricey, there are plenty of similar free agents in the $5-8MM price range.  It appears that the Giants would like to give Bumgarner some Triple A seasoning.

Sabean has had his troubles at the top end of the free agent market, but last offseason he made shrewd minor league signings with Juan Uribe and Medders.  I didn't mind the Affeldt, Randy Johnson and Bob Howry signings either, so maybe the payroll limitations will work in the Giants' favor and give us the best of Sabean.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Rangers.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $411K
C – Taylor Teagarden – $401K 
1B – Chris Davis – $407K
2B – Ian Kinsler – $4MM
SS – Elvis Andrus – $400K
3B – Michael Young – $16MM (partially deferred)
IF – Joaquin Arias – $402K
LF – David Murphy – $415K
CF – Josh Hamilton – $555K+
RF – Nelson Cruz – $408K
OF – Brandon Boggs – $409K
OF – Craig Gentry – $400K
DH – Julio Borbon – $400K

SP – Kevin Millwood – $12MM
SP – Scott Feldman – $435K+
SP – Derrek Holland – $400K
SP – Tommy Hunter – $401K
SP – Brandon McCarthy – $650K+

Other rotation candidates: Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, C.J. Wilson, Dustin Nippert, Guillermo Moscoso, Eric Hurley

RP – Frank Francisco – $1.615MM+
RP – C.J. Wilson – $1.85MM+
RP – Darren O'Day – $406K
RP – Dustin Nippert – $412K+
RP – Neftali Feliz – $400K
RP – Doug Mathis – $400K
RP – Willie Eyre – $410K

Other bullpen candidates: Guillermo Moscoso, Warner Madrigal, Pedro Strop

Other commitments: Frank Catalanotto – $2MM, Vicente Padilla – $1.75MM

That's roughly $44MM committed before arbitration raises to Hamilton, Feldman, McCarthy, Francisco, Wilson, and Nippert.  I have German as a non-tender, but you never know.  The raises plus money owed to Catalanotto and Padilla should put the Rangers in the low-$60MM range.  They entered 2009 with a $68.2MM payroll according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, and MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says it will be around $68-70MM again despite the team's unsettled ownership.  I'd say the Rangers have $10MM to spend at most, but a year ago we learned that Young is really getting about $12MM per year.  Factoring that in would give the Rangers another $4MM to work with.

Sullivan wrote a week ago that a right-handed bat is a high priority for Rangers GM Jon Daniels.  Re-signing Marlon Byrd would be one solution, while Sullivan suggested Jermaine Dye, Marcus Thames, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, Troy Glaus, and Fernando Tatis could also fit.  We listed a bunch of right-handed power options a month ago.  We know that Cruz and Hamilton will take two of the Rangers' outfield spots; Daniels could look to improve upon Borbon at DH and/or Murphy at left field.

Cubs switch-hitter Milton Bradley could be the answer, if the Rangers can whittle the $21MM commitment down to $5-6MM.  The idea of involving Millwood's contract has already been shot down.  The Rangers also may look to acquire a backup catcher, with re-signing Ivan Rodriguez a possibility.

As for the pitching staff, Sullivan considers it the Rangers' "strongest area of depth."  As you can see, their rotation is overflowing with candidates, though many are unproven.  Sullivan feels that shopping the arbitration-eligible McCarthy would be wise.  Should Feliz or Wilson be given the team's fifth starter job, the Rangers would probably look to augment their bullpen with a free agent or two. 

Ben Sheets would be a rotation wild card.  There's little harm in rekindling discussions with him, since it'd likely be an affordable one-year deal.  But we could easily see talents like Feliz and Holland erase rotation concerns in 2010.

The Rangers were not an offensive powerhouse in 2009 – their .320 team OBP ranked 12th in the AL.  Subtracting Hank Blalock and giving Davis a shorter leash should help there, as would getting more out of Kinsler, Hamilton, and Saltalamacchia.  If a couple young arms break through in 2010, the Rangers should compete.  Daniels doesn't have a ton of free cash, but he only needs to make minor additions.

Offseason Outlook: Florida Marlins

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Marlins.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – John Baker – $400K
C – Ronny Paulino – $440K+
1B – Jorge Cantu – $3.5MM+
2B – Dan Uggla – $5.35MM+
SS – Hanley Ramirez – $7MM
3B – Emilio Bonifacio – $400K
IF/OF – Alfredo Amezaga – $1.3MM+
1B/3B – Wes Helms – $950K
LF – Chris Coghlan – $400K
CF – Cody Ross – $2.225MM+
RF – Brett Carroll – $400K
OF – Cameron Maybin – $400K
? –

SP – Ricky Nolasco – $2.4MM+
SP – Josh Johnson – $1.4MM+
SP – Chris Volstad – $400K
SP – Sean West – $400K
SP – Andrew Miller – $1.575MM

Other candidates: Rick VandenHurk – $400K

RP – Leo Nunez – $415K+
RP – Matt Lindstrom – $410K+
RP – Brian Sanches – $400K
RP – Renyel Pinto – $404K+
RP – Burke Badenhop – $400K
RP – Dan Meyer – $400K
RP – Carlos Martinez – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Jeremy Hermida, Renyel Pinto, Alfredo Amezaga

Assuming Hermida is non-tendered, the Marlins will have about $32MM committed before arbitration raises to Paulino, Cantu, Uggla, Amezaga, Ross, Nolasco, Johnson, Nunez, Lindstrom, and Pinto.  The huge arbitration group should put the Fish around $45MM, even if Pinto and Amezaga are also non-tendered.  According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Marlins entered 2009 with a $36.8MM payroll.

Presumably the non-tender candidates will be shopped, and it would not be surprising to see many of the other arb-eligible players available on the trade market.  Cantu and Uggla seem particularly likely to be traded, while the Marlins hope to sign Johnson to an extension.

In a recent mailbag for MLB.com, Joe Frisaro answered a question about a possible Uggla-Javier Vazquez swap.  Uggla fits the Braves' need for right-handed power, though the team's first base and left field vacancies don't match up.  Plus, the Braves and Marlins are in direct competition.  The Tigers, Twins, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers might need help at second base, while Uggla could theoretically play third base for the Orioles, Twins, Angels, A's, Mariners, Astros, or Cardinals.  Of course, trading Uggla would leave the Marlins weak at second or third base themselves.

Cantu has much less trade value than Uggla.  Ross fits somewhere in-between, given the weak market for center fielders.  It'd make sense for the Marlins to seek young pitching in any deal, though I expect them to improve on this year's 4.57 rotation ERA regardless of any acquisitions.  Gaby Sanchez can step in at first base for Cantu after hitting .289/.374/.475 at Triple A.  Also, Logan Morrison logged a .411 OBP as a 21-year-old at Double A.

The Marlins deserve praise for last year's bullpen-building – Nunez was acquired for Mike Jacobs, while Kiko Calero, Brendan Donnelly, and Sanches were signed to minor league deals.  With Calero and Donnelly likely headed for greener pastures, Lindstrom a question mark, and Pinto getting pricey, look for the Marlins to repeat the process. 

Same old story for the Marlins for 2010 - they'll probably find a way to compete on a shoestring budget.  The light at the end of the tunnel: the new stadium opens in 2012.

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